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Sample records for hydrology conceptual model

  1. Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General

  2. Optimal combinations of specialized conceptual hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Lal Shrestha, Durga; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    In hydrological modelling it is a usual practice to use a single lumped conceptual model for hydrological simulations at all regimes. However often the simplicity of the modelling paradigm leads to errors in represent all the complexity of the physical processes in the catchment. A solution could be to model various hydrological processes separately by differently parameterized models, and to combine them. Different hydrological models have varying performance in reproducing catchment response. Generally it cannot be represented precisely in different segments of the hydrograph: some models performed well in simulating the peak flows, while others do well in capturing the low flows. Better performance can be achieved if a model being applied to the catchment using different model parameters that are calibrated using criteria favoring high or low flows. In this work we use a modular approach to simulate hydrology of a catchment, wherein multiple models are applied to replicate the catchment responses and each "specialist" model is calibrated according to a specific objective function which is chosen in a way that forces the model to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph, and outputs of models are combined using so-called "fuzzy committee". Such multi-model approach has been already previously implemented in the development of data driven and conceptual models (Fenicia et al., 2007), but its perfomance was considered only during the calibration period. In this study we tested an application to conceptual models in both calibration and verification period. In addition, we tested the sensitivity of the result to the use of different weightings used in the objective functions formulations, and memberbship functions used in the committee. The study was carried out for Bagamati catchment in Nepal and Brue catchment in United Kingdoms with the MATLAB-based implementation of HBV model. Multi-objective evolutionary optimization genetic algorithm (Deb, 2001) was used to

  3. Groundwater modelling in conceptual hydrological models - introducing space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boje, Søren; Skaugen, Thomas; Møen, Knut; Myrabø, Steinar

    2017-04-01

    The tiny Sæternbekken Minifelt (Muren) catchment (7500 m2) in Bærumsmarka, Norway, was during the 1990s, densely instrumented with more than a 100 observation points for measuring groundwater levels. The aim was to investigate the link between shallow groundwater dynamics and runoff. The DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model is a newly developed rainfall-runoff model used operationally by the Norwegian Flood-Forecasting service at NVE. The model estimates the capacity of the subsurface reservoir at different levels of saturation and predicts overland flow. The subsurface in the DDD model has a 2-D representation that calculates the saturated and unsaturated soil moisture along a hillslope representing the entire catchment in question. The groundwater observations from more than two decades ago are used to verify assumptions of the subsurface reservoir in the DDD model and to validate its spatial representation of the subsurface reservoir. The Muren catchment will, during 2017, be re-instrumented in order to continue the work to bridge the gap between conceptual hydrological models, with typically single value or 0-dimension representation of the subsurface, and models with more realistic 2- or 3-dimension representation of the subsurface.

  4. Misrepresentation and amendment of soil moisture in conceptual hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Although many conceptual models are very effective in simulating river runoff, their soil moisture schemes are generally not realistic in comparison with the reality (i.e., getting the right answers for the wrong reasons). This study reveals two significant misrepresentations in those models through a case study using the Xinanjiang model which is representative of many well-known conceptual hydrological models. The first is the setting of the upper limit of its soil moisture at the field capacity, due to the 'holding excess runoff' concept (i.e., runoff begins on repletion of its storage to the field capacity). The second is neglect of capillary rise of water movement. A new scheme is therefore proposed to overcome those two issues. The amended model is as effective as its original form in flow modelling, but represents more logically realistic soil water processes. The purpose of the study is to enable the hydrological model to get the right answers for the right reasons. Therefore, the new model structure has a better capability in potentially assimilating soil moisture observations to enhance its real-time flood forecasting accuracy. The new scheme is evaluated in the Pontiac catchment of the USA through a comparison with satellite observed soil moisture. The correlation between the XAJ and the observed soil moisture is enhanced significantly from 0.64 to 0.70. In addition, a new soil moisture term called SMDS (Soil Moisture Deficit to Saturation) is proposed to complement the conventional SMD (Soil Moisture Deficit).

  5. Distributed hydrological models: comparison between TOPKAPI, a physically based model and TETIS, a conceptually based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz, E.; Guna, V.

    2009-04-01

    The present work aims to carry out a comparison between two distributed hydrological models, the TOPKAPI (Ciarapica and Todini, 1998; Todini and Ciarapica, 2001) and TETIS (Vélez, J. J.; Vélez J. I. and Francés, F, 2002) models, obtaining the hydrological solution computed on the basis of the same storm events. The first model is physically based and the second one is conceptually based. The analysis was performed on the 21,4 km2 Goodwin Creek watershed, located in Panola County, Mississippi. This watershed extensively monitored by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) National Sediment Laboratory (NSL) has been chosen because it offers a complete database compiling precipitation (16 rain gauges), runoff (6 discharge stations) and GIS data. Three storm events were chosen to evaluate the performance of the two models: the first one was chosen to calibrate the models, and the other two to validate them. Both models performed a satisfactory hydrological response both in calibration and validation events. While for the TOPKAPI model it wasn't a real calibration, due to its really good performance with parameters modal values derived of watershed characteristics, for the TETIS model it has been necessary to perform a previous automatic calibration. This calibration was carried out using the data provided by the observed hydrograph, in order to adjust the modeĺs 9 correction factors. Keywords: TETIS, TOPKAPI, distributed models, hydrological response, ungauged basins.

  6. A conceptual data model coupling with physically-based distributed hydrological models based on catchment discretization schemas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yuanming; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2015-11-01

    In hydrology, the data types, spatio-temporal scales and formats for physically-based distributed hydrological models and the distributed data or parameters may be different before significant data pre-processing or may change during hydrological simulation run time. A data model is devoted to these problems for sophisticated numerical hydrological modeling procedures. In this paper, we propose a conceptual data model to interpret the comprehensive, universal and complex water environmental entities. We also present an innovative integration methodology to couple the data model with physically-based distributed hydrological models (DHMs) based on catchment discretization schemas. The data model provides a reasonable framework for researchers of organizing and pre-processing water environmental spatio-temporal datasets. It also facilitates seamless data flow fluid and dynamic by hydrological response units (HRUs) as the core between the object-oriented databases and physically-based distributed hydrological models.

  7. Understanding hydrological flow paths in conceptual catchment models using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, Eva M.; O'Loughlin, Fiachra E.; Bruen, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Increasing pressures on water quality due to intensification of agriculture have raised demands for environmental modeling to accurately simulate the movement of diffuse (nonpoint) nutrients in catchments. As hydrological flows drive the movement and attenuation of nutrients, individual hydrological processes in models should be adequately represented for water quality simulations to be meaningful. In particular, the relative contribution of groundwater and surface runoff to rivers is of interest, as increasing nitrate concentrations are linked to higher groundwater discharges. These requirements for hydrological modeling of groundwater contribution to rivers initiated this assessment of internal flow path partitioning in conceptual hydrological models. In this study, a variance based sensitivity analysis method was used to investigate parameter sensitivities and flow partitioning of three conceptual hydrological models simulating 31 Irish catchments. We compared two established conceptual hydrological models (NAM and SMARG) and a new model (SMART), produced especially for water quality modeling. In addition to the criteria that assess streamflow simulations, a ratio of average groundwater contribution to total streamflow was calculated for all simulations over the 16 year study period. As observations time-series of groundwater contributions to streamflow are not available at catchment scale, the groundwater ratios were evaluated against average annual indices of base flow and deep groundwater flow for each catchment. The exploration of sensitivities of internal flow path partitioning was a specific focus to assist in evaluating model performances. Results highlight that model structure has a strong impact on simulated groundwater flow paths. Sensitivity to the internal pathways in the models are not reflected in the performance criteria results. This demonstrates that simulated groundwater contribution should be constrained by independent data to ensure results

  8. Development of Conceptual Benchmark Models to Evaluate Complex Hydrologic Model Calibration in Managed Basins Using Python

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, J. D.; White, J.

    2013-12-01

    For many numerical hydrologic models it is a challenge to quantitatively demonstrate that complex models are preferable to simpler models. Typically, a decision is made to develop and calibrate a complex model at the beginning of a study. The value of selecting a complex model over simpler models is commonly inferred from use of a model with fewer simplifications of the governing equations because it can be time consuming to develop another numerical code with data processing and parameter estimation functionality. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to develop and calibrate simple models that can be used to quantitatively demonstrate the increased value of a complex model. We have developed and calibrated a spatially-distributed surface-water/groundwater flow model for managed basins in southeast Florida, USA, to (1) evaluate the effect of municipal groundwater pumpage on surface-water/groundwater exchange, (2) investigate how the study area will respond to sea-level rise, and (3) explore combinations of these forcing functions. To demonstrate the increased value of this complex model, we developed a two-parameter conceptual-benchmark-discharge model for each basin in the study area. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge model includes seasonal scaling and lag parameters and is driven by basin rainfall. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge models were developed in the Python programming language and used weekly rainfall data. Calibration was implemented with the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno method available in the Scientific Python (SciPy) library. Normalized benchmark efficiencies calculated using output from the complex model and the corresponding conceptual-benchmark-discharge model indicate that the complex model has more explanatory power than the simple model driven only by rainfall.

  9. Hydrologic Setting and Conceptual Hydrologic Model of the Walker River Basin, West-Central Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lopes, Thomas J.; Allander, Kip K.

    2009-01-01

    The Walker River is the main source of inflow to Walker Lake, a closed-basin lake in west-central Nevada. Between 1882 and 2008, agricultural diversions resulted in a lake-level decline of more than 150 feet and storage loss of 7,400,000 acre-ft. Evaporative concentration increased dissolved solids from 2,500 to 17,000 milligrams per liter. The increase in salinity threatens the survival of the Lahontan cutthroat trout, a native species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. This report describes the hydrologic setting of the Walker River basin and a conceptual hydrologic model of the relations among streams, groundwater, and Walker Lake with emphasis on the lower Walker River basin from Wabuska to Hawthorne, Nevada. The Walker River basin is about 3,950 square miles and straddles the California-Nevada border. Most streamflow originates as snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada. Spring runoff from the Sierra Nevada typically reaches its peak during late May to early June with as much as 2,800 cubic feet per second in the Walker River near Wabuska. Typically, 3 to 4 consecutive years of below average streamflow are followed by 1 or 2 years of average or above average streamflow. Mountain ranges are comprised of consolidated rocks with low hydraulic conductivities, but consolidated rocks transmit water where fractured. Unconsolidated sediments include fluvial deposits along the active channel of the Walker River, valley floors, alluvial slopes, and a playa. Sand and gravel deposited by the Walker River likely are discontinuous strata throughout the valley floor. Thick clay strata likely were deposited in Pleistocene Lake Lahontan and are horizontally continuous, except where strata have been eroded by the Walker River. At Walker Lake, sediments mostly are clay interbedded with alluvial slope, fluvial, and deltaic deposits along the lake margins. Coarse sediments form a multilayered, confined-aquifer system that could extend several miles from the shoreline

  10. On the validity of first-order prediction limits for conceptual hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuczera, George

    1988-11-01

    First-order analysis is a powerful method for evaluating the effect of parameter uncertainty propagating through a conceptual hydrologic model. However, its validity rests on the strong assumption that a first-order approximation is valid over the region of parameter space where there is significant parameter uncertainty. It is suggested that Beale's nonlinearity measure be used to check this assumption. This measure is based on the discrepancy between actual and linearized response for parameters randomly sampled from the surface of the 90% confidence ellipsoid. Examples involving two nonlinear conceptual models demonstrate that model nonlinearity is very much application-dependent, highlighting the need to compute Beale's nonlinearity measure in all model applications. Uncertainty in hydrologic response is induced not only by parameter uncertainty propagating through the model, but also by natural uncertainty arising from model and measurement error. Approximate prediction limits based on both parameter and natural uncertainty, are developed in a regression context, which employs an error model consistent with the residual characteristics found in conceptual hydrologic model applications. An example involving an eight-parameter streamflow yield model demonstrates dominance of natural over parameter uncertainty, emphasizing the need to include both forms of uncertainty when computing prediction limits.

  11. Assessment of hydrological model predictive ability given multiple conceptual geological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seifert, Dorte; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; HøJberg, Anker L.; Troldborg, Lars

    2012-06-01

    In this study six hydrological models that only differ with respect to their conceptual geological models are established for a 465 km2 area. The performances of the six models are evaluated in differential split-sample tests against a unique data set with well documented groundwater head and discharge data for different periods with different groundwater abstractions. The calibration results of the six models are comparable, with no model being superior to the others. Though, the six models make very different predictions of changes in groundwater head and discharges as a response to changes in groundwater abstraction. This confirms the utmost importance of the conceptual geological model for making predictions of variables and conditions beyond the calibration situation. In most cases the observed changes in hydraulic head and discharge are within the range of the changes predicted by the six models implying that a multiple modeling approach can be useful in obtaining more robust assessments of likely prediction errors. We conclude that the use of multiple models appear to be a good alternative to traditional differential split-sample schemes. A model averaging analysis shows that model weights estimated from model performance in the calibration or validation situation in many cases are not optimal for making other predictions. Hence, the critical assumption that is always made in model averaging, namely that the model weights derived from the calibration situation are also optimal for model predictions, cannot be assumed to be generally valid.

  12. Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Megersa O; Loiskandl, Willibald; Ndambuki, Julius M

    2014-09-01

    Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake's hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R(2), MAE, RMSE, E(f)). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56% of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.

  13. Conceptualizing Peatlands in a Physically-Based Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Downer, Charles; Wahl, Mark

    2017-04-01

    In as part of a research effort focused on climate change effects on permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska, it became apparent that peat soils, overlain by thick sphagnum moss, had a considerable effect on the overall hydrology. Peatlands represent a confounding mixture of vegetation, soils, and water that present challenges for conceptualizing and parametrizing hydrologic models. We employed the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis Model (GSSHA) in our analysis of the Caribou Poker Creek Experimental Watershed (CPCRW). GSSHA is a physically-based, spatially distributed, watershed model developed by the U.S. Army to simulate important streamflow-generating processes (Downer and Ogden, 2004). The model enables simulation of surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as soil temperature and frozen ground effects on subsurface water movement. The test site is a 104 km2 basin located in the Yukon-Tanana Uplands of the Northern Plateaus Physiographic Province centered on 65˚10' N latitude and 147˚30' W longitude. The area lies above the Chattanika River floodplain and is characterized by rounded hilltops with gentle slopes and alluvium-floored valleys having minimal relief (Wahrhaftig, 1965) underlain by a mica shist of the Birch Creek formation (Rieger et al., 1972). The region has a cold continental climate characterized by short warm summers and long cold winters. Observed stream flows indicated significant groundwater contribution with sustained base flows even during dry periods. A site visit exposed the presence of surface water flows indicating a mixed basin that would require both surface and subsurface simulation capability to properly capture the response. Soils in the watershed are predominately silt loam underlain by shallow fractured bedrock. Throughout much of the basin, a thick layer of live sphagnum moss and fine peat covers the ground surface. A restrictive layer of permafrost is found on north facing slopes. The combination of thick

  14. Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

    SciTech Connect

    Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

    1996-07-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

  15. How much expert knowledge is it worth to put in conceptual hydrological models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antonetti, Manuel; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2017-04-01

    Both modellers and experimentalists agree on using expert knowledge to improve our conceptual hydrological simulations on ungauged basins. However, they use expert knowledge differently for both hydrologically mapping the landscape and parameterising a given hydrological model. Modellers use generally very simplified (e.g. topography-based) mapping approaches and put most of the knowledge for constraining the model by defining parameter and process relational rules. In contrast, experimentalists tend to invest all their detailed and qualitative knowledge about processes to obtain a spatial distribution of areas with different dominant runoff generation processes (DRPs) as realistic as possible, and for defining plausible narrow value ranges for each model parameter. Since, most of the times, the modelling goal is exclusively to simulate runoff at a specific site, even strongly simplified hydrological classifications can lead to satisfying results due to equifinality of hydrological models, overfitting problems and the numerous uncertainty sources affecting runoff simulations. Therefore, to test to which extent expert knowledge can improve simulation results under uncertainty, we applied a typical modellers' modelling framework relying on parameter and process constraints defined based on expert knowledge to several catchments on the Swiss Plateau. To map the spatial distribution of the DRPs, mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge were used. Simulation results highlighted the potential added value of using all the expert knowledge available on a catchment. Also, combinations of event types and landscapes, where even a simplified mapping approach can lead to satisfying results, were identified. Finally, the uncertainty originated by the different mapping approaches was compared with the one linked to meteorological input data and catchment initial conditions.

  16. Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

    2017-04-01

    Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

  17. How much cryosphere model complexity is just right? Exploration using the conceptual cryosphere hydrology framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, Thomas M.; Hill, David F.; Sharp, Kendra V.

    2016-09-01

    Making meaningful projections of the impacts that possible future climates would have on water resources in mountain regions requires understanding how cryosphere hydrology model performance changes under altered climate conditions and when the model is applied to ungaged catchments. Further, if we are to develop better models, we must understand which specific process representations limit model performance. This article presents a modeling tool, named the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrology Framework (CCHF), that enables implementing and evaluating a wide range of cryosphere modeling hypotheses. The CCHF represents cryosphere hydrology systems using a set of coupled process modules that allows easily interchanging individual module representations and includes analysis tools to evaluate model outputs. CCHF version 1 (Mosier, 2016) implements model formulations that require only precipitation and temperature as climate inputs - for example variations on simple degree-index (SDI) or enhanced temperature index (ETI) formulations - because these model structures are often applied in data-sparse mountain regions, and perform relatively well over short periods, but their calibration is known to change based on climate and geography. Using CCHF, we implement seven existing and novel models, including one existing SDI model, two existing ETI models, and four novel models that utilize a combination of existing and novel module representations. The novel module representations include a heat transfer formulation with net longwave radiation and a snowpack internal energy formulation that uses an approximation of the cold content. We assess the models for the Gulkana and Wolverine glaciated watersheds in Alaska, which have markedly different climates and contain long-term US Geological Survey benchmark glaciers. Overall we find that the best performing models are those that are more physically consistent and representative, but no single model performs best for all of our model

  18. Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.; Kwicklis, Edward M.; Fabryka-Martin, June

    2001-01-01

    Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States’ first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500–1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5–4.5 mm/yr, or 2–3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because of capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to flow. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water in the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data

  19. Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at yucca mountain, nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.; Bodvarsson, G. S.; Kwicklis, E. M.; Fabryka-Martin, J.

    2001-02-01

    Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States' first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500-1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5-4.5 mm/yr, or 2-3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because o f capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to show. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water into the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data

  20. A conceptual, linear reservoir runoff model to investigate melt season changes in cirque glacier hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannah, David M.; Gurnell, Angela M.

    2001-06-01

    This paper presents a conceptual, linear reservoir runoff model and applies it to a small glacierized cirque basin in the French Pyrénées over the 1995 melt season. A series of modelling experiments are undertaken: (i) to explore the response of diurnal hydrograph form to seasonal changes in surface meltwater recharge and glacier storage and routing processes and (ii) to investigate the possible structure of the hydrological system of this remnant glacier. High resolution, spatially- and temporally distributed observations of snow and ice-melt (and precipitation records) are used to estimate bulk meltwater inputs, which feed into a lumped meltwater drainage model. Empirical hydrograph recession limb analysis provides a basis to identify the most likely 'structure' of the glacier's hydrological system. This structure is then represented in the model by two ('fast' and 'slow') linear reservoirs. Although fast reservoir storage coefficients show only a moderate decline (13.00-5.25 h), the proportion of bulk meltwater entering this reservoir increases as the glacier snowline retreats and the slow reservoir storage coefficient decreases (45.00-17.75 h); consequently modelled hydrographs become increasingly peaked over the ablation season. Later in the melt season, the drainage system is mathematically best represented as a single reservoir (with a storage coefficient of 6.00-8.25 h) due to meltwater production occurring mainly in the lower-mid ablation zone, reduction in the extent (capacity) of the slower storage areas, and/or integration of the slow and fast pathways. In terms of glacier hydrology, the modelling experiments suggest that the fast reservoir represents ice-melt draining into a semi-distributed system beneath the lower glacier and the slow reservoir represents a snowpack-fed distributed system below the upper glacier. The nature of storage and routing within the hydrological system and the degree to which these processes are significant in determining

  1. Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in catchment conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Hrachowitz, M.; Faucheux, M.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.

    2015-01-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system-internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is difficult to measure, and another one is that objective functions are usually based on individual variables time series (e.g. the discharge). This reduces the ability of classical procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypotheses associated with models. We analysed the annual hysteric patterns observed between stream flow and water storage both in the saturated and unsaturated zones of the hillslope and the riparian zone of a headwater catchment in French Brittany (Environmental Research Observatory ERO AgrHys (ORE AgrHys)). The saturated-zone storage was estimated using distributed shallow groundwater levels and the unsaturated-zone storage using several moisture profiles. All hysteretic loops were characterized by a hysteresis index. Four conceptual models, previously calibrated and evaluated for the same catchment, were assessed with respect to their ability to reproduce the hysteretic patterns. The observed relationship between stream flow and saturated, and unsaturated storages led us to identify four hydrological periods and emphasized a clearly distinct behaviour between riparian and hillslope groundwaters. Although all the tested models were able to produce an annual hysteresis loop between discharge and both saturated and unsaturated storage, the integration of a riparian component led to overall improved hysteretic signatures, even if some misrepresentation remained. Such a system-like approach is likely to improve model selection.

  2. Imposing constraints on parameter values of a conceptual hydrological model using baseflow response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, S. M.

    Calibration of conceptual hydrological models is frequently limited by a lack of data about the area that is being studied. The result is that a broad range of parameter values can be identified that will give an equally good calibration to the available observations, usually of stream flow. The use of total stream flow can bias analyses towards interpretation of rapid runoff, whereas water quality issues are more frequently associated with low flow condition. This paper demonstrates how model distinctions between surface an sub-surface runoff can be used to define a likelihood measure based on the sub-surface (or baseflow) response. This helps to provide more information about the model behaviour, constrain the acceptable parameter sets and reduce uncertainty in streamflow prediction. A conceptual model, DIY, is applied to two contrasting catchments in Scotland, the Ythan and the Carron Valley. Parameter ranges and envelopes of prediction are identified using criteria based on total flow efficiency, baseflow efficiency and combined efficiencies. The individual parameter ranges derived using the combined efficiency measures still cover relatively wide bands, but are better constrained for the Carron than the Ythan. This reflects the fact that hydrological behaviour in the Carron is dominated by a much flashier surface response than in the Ythan. Hence, the total flow efficiency is more strongly controlled by surface runoff in the Carron and there is a greater contrast with the baseflow efficiency. Comparisons of the predictions using different efficiency measures for the Ythan also suggest that there is a danger of confusing parameter uncertainties with data and model error, if inadequate likelihood measures are defined.

  3. Assimilating multi-source uncertainties of a parsimonious conceptual hydrological model using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

    Treesearch

    Wei Wu; James Clark; James Vose

    2010-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) modeling allows for multiple sources of uncertainty by factoring complex relationships into conditional distributions that can be used to draw inference and make predictions. We applied an HB model to estimate the parameters and state variables of a parsimonious hydrological model – GR4J – by coherently assimilating the uncertainties from the...

  4. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2015-05-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30-year period (1982-2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  5. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modeling in the semi-arid Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2014-10-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modeling of a meso-scale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30 year period (1982-2011). The modeling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behavior: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modeling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain 8 model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modeling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  6. Exploring Hydrological Flow Paths in Conceptual Catchment Models using Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, E. M.; O'Loughlin, F.; Bruen, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Conceptual rainfall runoff (CRR) models aim to capture the dominant hydrological processes in a catchment in order to predict the flows in a river. Most flood forecasting models focus on predicting total outflows from a catchment and often perform well without the correct distribution between individual pathways. However, modelling of water flow paths within a catchment, rather than its overall response, is specifically needed to investigate the physical and chemical transport of matter through the various elements of the hydrological cycle. Focus is increasingly turning to accurately quantifying the internal movement of water within these models to investigate if the simulated processes contributing to the total flows are realistic in the expectation of generating more robust models. Parameter regionalisation is required if such models are to be widely used, particularly in ungauged catchments. However, most regionalisation studies to date have typically consisted of calibrations and correlations of parameters with catchment characteristics, or some variations of this. In order for a priori parameter estimation in this manner to be possible, a model must be parametrically parsimonious while still capturing the dominant processes of the catchment. The presence of parameter interactions within most CRR model structures can make parameter prediction in ungauged basins very difficult, as the functional role of the parameter within the model may not be uniquely identifiable. We use a variance based sensitivity analysis method to investigate parameter sensitivities and interactions in the global parameter space of three CRR models, simulating a set of 30 Irish catchments within a variety of hydrological settings over a 16 year period. The exploration of sensitivities of internal flow path partitioning was a specific focus and correlations between catchment characteristics and parameter sensitivities were also investigated to assist in evaluating model performances

  7. Runoff simulation in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) using conceptual hydrological HBV-light model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radchenko, Iuliia; Breuer, Lutz; Forkutsa, Irina; Frede, Hans-Georg

    2013-04-01

    Glaciers and permafrost on the ranges of the Tien Shan mountain system are primary sources of water in the Ferghana Valley. The water artery of the valley is the Syr Darya River that is formed by confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, which originate from the mountain glaciers of the Ak-Shyrak and the Ferghana ranges accordingly. The Ferghana Valley is densely populated and main activity of population is agriculture that heavily depends on irrigation especially in such arid region. The runoff reduction is projected in future due to global temperature rise and glacier shrinkage as a consequence. Therefore, it is essential to study climate change impact on water resources in the area both for ecological and economic aspects. The evaluation of comparative contribution of small upper catchments (n=24) with precipitation predominance in discharge and the large Naryn and Karadarya River basins, which are fed by glacial melt water, to the Fergana Valley water balance under current and future climatic conditions is general aim of the study. Appropriate understanding of the hydrological cycle under current climatic conditions is significant for prognosis of water resource availability in the future. Thus, conceptual hydrological HBV-light model was used for analysing of the water balance of the small upper catchments that surround the Ferghana Valley. Three trial catchments (the Kugart River basin, 1010 km²; the Kurshab River basin, 2010 km2; the Akbura River basin, 2260 km²) with relatively good temporal quality data were chosen to setup the model. Due to limitation of daily temperature data the MODAWEC weather generator, which converts monthly temperature data into daily based on correlation with rainfall, was tested and applied for the HBV-light model.

  8. Towards a conceptual model of hydrological change on an abandoned cutover bog, Quebec

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Seters, Tim E.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2002-07-01

    Cutover bogs do not return to functional peatland ecosystems after abandonment because re-establishment of peat-forming mosses is poor. This paper presents a conceptual model of bog disturbance caused by peat harvesting (1942-1972), and the hydrological evolution that occurred after abandonment (1973-1998). Two adjacent bogs of similar size and origin, one harvested and the other essentially undisturbed, provide the basis for understanding what changes occurred. The model is based on historical trends evident from previous surveys of land-use, bog ecology and resource mapping; and from recent hydrological and ecological data that characterize the current condition. Water balance data and historical information suggest that runoff increased and evapotranspiration decreased following drainage, but tended towards pre-disturbance levels following abandonment, as vegetation recolonized the surface and drainage became less efficient over time. Dewatering of soil pores after drainage caused shrinkage and oxidation of the peat and surface subsidence of approximately 80 cm over 57 years. Comparisons with a nearby natural bog suggest that bulk density in the upper 50 cm of cutover peat increased from 0·07 to 0·13 g cm-3, specific yield declined from 0·14 to 0·07, water table fluctuations were 67% greater, and mean saturated hydraulic conductivity declined from 4·1 × 10-5 to 1·3 × 10-5 cm s-1. More than 25 years after abandonment, Sphagnum mosses were distributed over broad areas but covered less than 15% of the surface. Areas with good Sphagnum regeneration (>10% cover) were strongly correlated with high water tables (mean -22 cm), especially in zones of seasonal groundwater discharge, artefacts of the extraction history. Forest cover expanded from 5 to 20% of the study area following abandonment. The effect of forest growth (transpiration and interception) and drainage on lowering water levels eventually will be countered by slower water movement through the

  9. Validation of hydrological models: Conceptual basis, methodological approaches and a proposal for a code of practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, Daniela; Freni, Gabriele; Iacobellis, Vito; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Montanari, Alberto

    In this paper, we discuss validation of hydrological models, namely the process of evaluating performance of a simulation and/or prediction model. We briefly review the validation procedures that are frequently used in hydrology making a distinction between scientific validation and performance validation. Finally, we propose guidelines for carrying out model validation with the aim of providing agreed methodologies to efficiently assess model peculiarities and limitations, and to quantify simulation performance.

  10. Conceptual hydrologic model of flow in the unsaturated zone, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Montazer, P.M.; Wilson, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The unsaturated volcanic tuffs beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are being evaluated as a host rock for a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. A conceptual hydrologic model is proposed to describe the flow of fluids through these rocks. Thickness of the unsaturated zone is about 500 to 750 meters and consists of three welded units interlayered with two nonwelded units. Compared to nonwelded units, welded units have low matrix porosities and permeabilities, high fracture densities, and high bulk hydraulic conductivities. The principal repository area is bounded by normal fault zones. Of the average annual precipitation of 150 millimeters per year, 0.5 to 4.5 millimeters per year becomes net infiltration. Percolation through the matrix of the welded units is principally vertical and is less than 1 millimeter per year. Percolation through nonwelded units occurs both vertically and laterally and has variable rates (0.1 to 100 millimeters per year). Fracture flow is predominant in the uppermost welded unit during intense pulses of infiltration, but is insignificant in the welded unit that forms the potential host rock. Lateral flow in the upper nonwelded unit, enhanced by existence of a capillary barrier, probably is the factor controlling the low fluxes in the host rock and relatively high fluxes in the structural features. (USGS)

  11. Investigating the relationship between a soils classification and the spatial parameters of a conceptual catchment-scale hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, S. M.; Lilly, A.

    2001-10-01

    There are now many examples of hydrological models that utilise the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems to generate spatially distributed predictions of behaviour. However, the spatial variability of hydrological parameters relating to distributions of soils and vegetation can be hard to establish. In this paper, the relationship between a soil hydrological classification Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) and the spatial parameters of a conceptual catchment-scale model is investigated. A procedure involving inverse modelling using Monte-Carlo simulations on two catchments is developed to identify relative values for soil related parameters of the DIY model. The relative values determine the internal variability of hydrological processes as a function of the soil type. For three out of the four soil parameters studied, the variability between HOST classes was found to be consistent across two catchments when tested independently. Problems in identifying values for the fourth 'fast response distance' parameter have highlighted a potential limitation with the present structure of the model. The present assumption that this parameter can be related simply to soil type rather than topography appears to be inadequate. With the exclusion of this parameter, calibrated parameter sets from one catchment can be converted into equivalent parameter sets for the alternate catchment on the basis of their HOST distributions, to give a reasonable simulation of flow. Following further testing on different catchments, and modifications to the definition of the fast response distance parameter, the technique provides a methodology whereby it is possible to directly derive spatial soil parameters for new catchments.

  12. Performance of a distributed semi-conceptual hydrological model under tropical watershed conditions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Many hydrologic models have been developed to help manage natural resources all over the world. Nevertheless, most models have presented a high complexity in terms of data base requirements, as well as, many calibration parameters. This has resulted in serious difficulties to application in catchmen...

  13. Hydrological hysteresis and its value for assessing process consistency in catchment conceptual models

    Treesearch

    O. Fovet; L. Ruiz; M. Hrachowitz; M. Faucheux; C. Gascuel-Odoux

    2015-01-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system-internal processes. In particular, the relationship between storage and discharge, which often follows annual hysteretic patterns in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely considered in modelling studies. One main reason is that catchment storage is...

  14. On the optimal design of experiments for conceptual and predictive discrimination of hydrologic system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikuchi, C. P.; Ferré, T. P. A.; Vrugt, J. A.

    2015-06-01

    Experimental design and data collection constitute two main steps of the iterative research cycle (aka the scientific method). To help evaluate competing hypotheses, it is critical to ensure that the experimental design is appropriate and maximizes information retrieval from the system of interest. Scientific hypothesis testing is implemented by comparing plausible model structures (conceptual discrimination) and sets of predictions (predictive discrimination). This research presents a new Discrimination-Inference (DI) methodology to identify prospective data sets highly suitable for either conceptual or predictive discrimination. The DI methodology uses preposterior estimation techniques to evaluate the expected change in the conceptual or predictive probabilities, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We present two case studies with increasing complexity to illustrate implementation of the DI for maximizing information withdrawal from a system of interest. The case studies show that highly informative data sets for conceptual discrimination are in general those for which between-model (conceptual) uncertainty is large relative to the within-model (parameter) uncertainty, and the redundancy between individual measurements in the set is minimized. The optimal data set differs if predictive, rather than conceptual, discrimination is the experimental design objective. Our results show that DI analyses highlight measurements that can be used to address critical uncertainties related to the prediction of interest. Finally, we find that the optimal data set for predictive discrimination is sensitive to the predictive grouping definition in ways that are not immediately apparent from inspection of the model structure and parameter values.

  15. Snow hydrology of a headwater Arctic basin. 2. Conceptual analysis and computer modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hinzman, L.D.; Kane, D.L. )

    1991-06-01

    Lack of hydrologic data in the Arctic, particularly during snowmelt, severely limits modeling strategy. Spring snowmelt in Imnavait watershed is a very brief event, usually lasting about 10 days. Peak flow normally occurs within the top 10 cm of the highly organic soil mat or on the surface. Snow damming of snowmelt runoff is an important mechanism which must be considered in the modeling process of small watersheds. These unique characteristics of Arctic hydrology will affect the methodology and performance of a hydrologic model. The HBV model was used in an investigation of the hydrologic regime of an Arctic watershed during the spring snowmelt period. From the analysis of five spring melt events the authors found that HBV can adequately predict soil moisture, evaporation, snow ablation and accumulation, and runoff. It models the volumes of snowmelt runoff well, but more data are needed to improve the determination of snowmelt initiation. Use of HBV as a predictive tool is dependent upon the quality of the meteorologic forecast data.

  16. Maximum entropy production: Can it be used to constrain conceptual hydrological models?

    Treesearch

    M.C. Westhoff; E. Zehe

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, optimality principles have been proposed to constrain hydrological models. The principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) is one of the proposed principles and is subject of this study. It states that a steady state system is organized in such a way that entropy production is maximized. Although successful applications have been reported in...

  17. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  18. Hydrogeologic setting and conceptual hydrologic model of the Spring Creek basin, Centre County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fulton, John W.; Koerkle, Edward H.; McAuley, Steven D.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Zarr, Linda F.

    2005-01-01

    The Spring Creek Basin, Centre County, Pa., is experiencing some of the most rapid growth and development within the Commonwealth. This trend has resulted in land-use changes and increased water use, which will affect the quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, surface water, ground water, and aquatic resources within the basin. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ClearWater Conservancy (CWC), Spring Creek Watershed Community (SCWC), and Spring Creek Watershed Commission (SCWCm), has developed a Watershed Plan (Plan) to assist decision makers in water-resources planning. One element of the Plan is to provide a summary of the basin characteristics and a conceptual model that incorporates the hydrogeologic characteristics of the basin. The report presents hydrogeologic data for the basin and presents a conceptual model that can be used as the basis for simulating surface-water and ground-water flow within the basin. Basin characteristics; sources of data referenced in this text; physical characteristics such as climate, physiography, topography, and land use; hydrogeologic characteristics; and water-quality characteristics are discussed. A conceptual model is a simplified description of the physical components and interaction of the surface- and ground-water systems. The purpose for constructing a conceptual model is to simplify the problem and to organize the available data so that the system can be analyzed accurately. Simplification is necessary, because a complete accounting of a system, such as Spring Creek, is not possible. The data and the conceptual model could be used in development of a fully coupled numerical model that dynamically links surface water, ground water, and land-use changes. The model could be used by decision makers to manage water resources within the basin and as a prototype that is transferable to other watersheds.

  19. A Conceptual Model for Evaluating Hydrologic Connectivity in Geographically Isolated Wetlands

    EPA Science Inventory

    Knowledge about hydrologic connectivity between aquatic resources is critical to understanding and managing watershed hydrology and to the legal status of those resources. In particular, information is needed on the hydrologic connectivity and effects of geographically isolated ...

  20. A Conceptual Model for Evaluating Hydrologic Connectivity in Geographically Isolated Wetlands

    EPA Science Inventory

    Knowledge about hydrologic connectivity between aquatic resources is critical to understanding and managing watershed hydrology and to the legal status of those resources. In particular, information is needed on the hydrologic connectivity and effects of geographically isolated ...

  1. Where does the uncertainty come from? Attributing Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrologic Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abu Shoaib, S.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.

    2015-12-01

    Defining an appropriate forecasting model is a key phase in water resources planning and design. Quantification of uncertainty is an important step in the development and application of hydrologic models. In this study, we examine the dependency of hydrologic model uncertainty on the observed model inputs, defined model structure, parameter optimization identifiability and identified likelihood. We present here a new uncertainty metric, the Quantile Flow Deviation or QFD, to evaluate the relative uncertainty due to each of these sources under a range of catchment conditions. Through the metric, we may identify the potential spectrum of uncertainty and variability in model simulations. The QFD assesses uncertainty by estimating the deviation in flows at a given quantile across a range of scenarios. By using a quantile based metric, the change in uncertainty across individual percentiles can be assessed, thereby allowing uncertainty to be expressed as a function of time. The QFD method can be disaggregated to examine any part of the modelling process including the selection of certain model subroutines or forcing data. Case study results (including catchments in Australia and USA) suggest that model structure selection is vital irrespective of the flow percentile of interest or the catchment being studied. Examining the QFD across various quantiles additionally demonstrates that lower yielding catchments may have greater variation due to selected model structures. By incorporating multiple model structures, it is possible to assess (i) the relative importance of various sources of uncertainty, (ii) how these vary with the change in catchment location or hydrologic regime; and (iii) the impact of the length of available observations in uncertainty quantification.

  2. What can hydrological time series variations tell about karst dynamics? A coupled statistical/conceptual modeling analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massei, N.; Duran, L. P.; Fournier, M.; Jardani, A.; Lecoq, N.

    2015-12-01

    In this research we study the capability of time series analysis approaches to extract meaningful components of karst spring hydrographs. In this aim we compare these statistical components to the internal components of a conceptual precipitation/discharge model based on the physical knowledge of the site studied. We used the conceptual modeling software KARSTMOD developed by the INSU/CNRS National Karst Observatory to model discharge at a small karst spring in Normandy (France). The model comprised four reservoirs E, L, M and C (interpreted as epikarst, high- inertia/highly capacitive matrix, fissure network and conduits), consistent with previous works showing the existence of a triple porosity in chalk of Normandy. KARSTMOD internal flow components were analyzed with correlation and Fourier spectral analysis, and compared to statistical components extracted from spring discharge by wavelet multiresolution analysis and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). We could also analyze how the hydrological signal acquired its red noise statistical characteristics while water flow propagates into the conceptual model. The trend of the discharge signal, given by the residue of EEMD, appeared quite similar to the variation in reservoir L and well correlated to the variation of the water level within the aquifer. Exchanges between fissured matrix and conduits (reservoirs M and C) could be also investigated: a high frequency pressure pulse-controlled flow from C to M (intermittent recharge from the conduits) was identified, as well as fissured matrix flow likely to take place in the surroundings of the conduit network. Flow from reservoir M to reservoir C could be recovered by recombining wavelet components of spring discharge. This study demonstrated that statistical components extracted from a discharge signal of a karst spring can provide meaningful hydrological information. Comparison with a physics-based model would however be required in order to complement this

  3. MESSI: An engineering tool for conceptual hydrological modeling using SUPERFLEX, MOSCEM and GLUE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Osnabrugge, Bart; Mondeel, Herman; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2014-05-01

    The progress of hydrology as a science is mentioned quite often and indeed lots of theoretical research is done to improving hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) modeling. At the same time however, it is concluded that engineering practice lags behind on this scientific progress by at least a couple of years. In this research, it is investigated how this gap can be closed. An engineering tool is developed called Model Ensemble, Sampling, Selection and Interpretation (MESSI) and tested in the engineering environment. The tool uses the model hypothesis framework SUPERFLEX to build an 'a-priori' ensemble of possible model structures for the case at hand. Then, the Multi-objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (MOSCEM) is used for sampling of the parameter space. Finally, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology is used to select a posterior ensemble which is then interpreted using the Pareto front and generated uncertainty bounds. During the trial it was found that MESSI provides a plug-and-play method which is able to provide catchment process information, a mathematical optimal model and a measure of uncertainty based on the observation. Most important, it is shown that with a little effort new techniques can be brought directly to the engineering arena which will improve the interaction between the scientist and the engineer.

  4. Comparison of Two Conceptually Different Physically-based Hydrological Models - Looking Beyond Streamflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousseau, A. N.; Álvarez; Yu, X.; Savary, S.; Duffy, C.

    2015-12-01

    Most physically-based hydrological models simulate to various extents the relevant watershed processes occurring at different spatiotemporal scales. These models use different physical domain representations (e.g., hydrological response units, discretized control volumes) and numerical solution techniques (e.g., finite difference method, finite element method) as well as a variety of approximations for representing the physical processes. Despite the fact that several models have been developed so far, very few inter-comparison studies have been conducted to check beyond streamflows whether different modeling approaches could simulate in a similar fashion the other processes at the watershed scale. In this study, PIHM (Qu and Duffy, 2007), a fully coupled, distributed model, and HYDROTEL (Fortin et al., 2001; Turcotte et al., 2003, 2007), a pseudo-coupled, semi-distributed model, were compared to check whether the models could corroborate observed streamflows while equally representing other processes as well such as evapotranspiration, snow accumulation/melt or infiltration, etc. For this study, the Young Womans Creek watershed, PA, was used to compare: streamflows (channel routing), actual evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (snow accumulation and melt), infiltration, recharge, shallow water depth above the soil surface (surface flow), lateral flow into the river (surface and subsurface flow) and height of the saturated soil column (subsurface flow). Despite a lack of observed data for contrasting most of the simulated processes, it can be said that the two models can be used as simulation tools for streamflows, actual evapotranspiration, infiltration, lateral flows into the river, and height of the saturated soil column. However, each process presents particular differences as a result of the physical parameters and the modeling approaches used by each model. Potentially, these differences should be object of further analyses to definitively confirm or

  5. A Bayesian Uncertainty Framework for Conceptual Snowmelt and Hydrologic Models Applied to the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, T.; Marshall, L.

    2007-12-01

    In many mountainous regions, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack (Williams et al., 1999). In an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and functional modeling of snow-driven watersheds, a flexible hydrologic modeling framework is being developed. The aim is to create a suite of models that move from parsimonious structures, concentrated on aggregated watershed response, to those focused on representing finer scale processes and distributed response. This framework will operate as a tool to investigate the link between hydrologic model predictive performance, uncertainty, model complexity, and observable hydrologic processes. Bayesian methods, and particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, are extremely useful in uncertainty assessment and parameter estimation of hydrologic models. However, these methods have some difficulties in implementation. In a traditional Bayesian setting, it can be difficult to reconcile multiple data types, particularly those offering different spatial and temporal coverage, depending on the model type. These difficulties are also exacerbated by sensitivity of MCMC algorithms to model initialization and complex parameter interdependencies. As a way of circumnavigating some of the computational complications, adaptive MCMC algorithms have been developed to take advantage of the information gained from each successive iteration. Two adaptive algorithms are compared is this study, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2001), and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2006). While neither algorithm is truly Markovian, it has been proven that each satisfies the desired ergodicity and stationarity properties of Markov chains. Both algorithms were implemented as the uncertainty and parameter estimation framework for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the

  6. A Hydrological Model To Bridge The Gap Between Conceptual and Physically Based Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, M.; Ostrowski, M.; Blöschl, G.

    In the last decade it has become evident that models are needed to account for more realistic physical assumptions and for improved data availability and computational facilities. In general it seems to be a dominant objective to better account for nonlin- earity and for less uncertain parameter identification. This allows its application also to ungaged catchments. To account for these objectives and for improved computa- tional boundary conditions a new model has been developed, tested and validated at Darmstadt University of Technology. The model is a quasi non linear model, it uses GIS provided data and includes physically based (not physical) model parameters, quite readily available from digitally stored information. Surface runoff determined after physically based non linear soil moisture modelling is routed with the kinematic cascade approach according to digital elevation grid models while sub-surface flow is routed through linear conceptual modules. The model uses generally accepted param- eters for soil moisture modelling including vegetation canopy such as total porosity, field cvapacity, wilting point, hydraulic conductivities and leaf area index and canopy coverage. The model has been successfully applied to several test sites and catchments at local, micro and lower macro scales. It is the objective of the paper to - explain the background of model development - briefly explain algorithms - discuss model parameter identification - present case study results

  7. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

    2000-02-28

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

  8. Simultaneous Assimilation of Multiple Data into a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model using Variational Methods for Hydrological Forecasting Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwanenberg, D.; Alvarado Montero, R.; Sensoy Sorman, A.; Krahe, P.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation methods applied to hydrological applications have primarily focused on assimilating streamflow and, more recently, soil moisture observations. Few cases actually assimilate both observations, and even fewer incorporate additional observations into the assimilation procedure. This is despite extensive developments in remote sensing information. Most research on data assimilation has focused on the implementation of sequential assimilation using Kalman filters. We present an alternative approach using variational methods based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) to simultaneously assimilate streamflow data and remote sensing information obtained from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) community, namely snow-covered area, snow water equivalent and soil moisture. This approach enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the introduction of noise into the model and the agreement between simulated and observed variables. The application of MHE on data assimilation is tested at two data-dense test sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. The assessment of results is based on the lead time performance of state variables of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model, i.e. not limited to the performance of streamflow forecast but also applicable to snow and soil moisture forecast skills. Results show a potential improvement on the performance of the forecasted streamflow when using a perfect time series of state variables generated through the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV. The assimilation of H-SAF data, in combination with streamflow, reduces the performance of the forecasted streamflow compared to the assimilation using only streamflow data. However, other forecasted quantities such as the snow water equivalent or soil moisture are improved. Recommendations based on the test cases are given following the length of the assimilation

  9. Identification of the dominant hydrological process and appropriate model structure of a karst catchment through stepwise simplification of a complex conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yong; Wu, Jichun; Jiang, Guanghui; Kang, Zhiqiang

    2017-05-01

    Conceptual models often suffer from the over-parameterization problem due to limited available data for the calibration. This leads to the problem of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may bring much uncertainty of the simulation result. How to find out the appropriate model structure supported by the available data to simulate the catchment is still a big challenge in the hydrological research. In this paper, we adopt a multi-model framework to identify the dominant hydrological process and appropriate model structure of a karst spring, located in Guilin city, China. For this catchment, the spring discharge is the only available data for the model calibration. This framework starts with a relative complex conceptual model according to the perception of the catchment and then this complex is simplified into several different models by gradually removing the model component. The multi-objective approach is used to compare the performance of these different models and the regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) is used to investigate the parameter identifiability. The results show this karst spring is mainly controlled by two different hydrological processes and one of the processes is threshold-driven which is consistent with the fieldwork investigation. However, the appropriate model structure to simulate the discharge of this spring is much simpler than the actual aquifer structure and hydrological processes understanding from the fieldwork investigation. A simple linear reservoir with two different outlets is enough to simulate this spring discharge. The detail runoff process in the catchment is not needed in the conceptual model to simulate the spring discharge. More complex model should need more other additional data to avoid serious deterioration of model predictions.

  10. Multi-response calibration of a conceptual hydrological model in the semiarid catchment of Wadi al Arab, Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rödiger, T.; Geyer, S.; Mallast, U.; Merz, R.; Krause, P.; Fischer, C.; Siebert, C.

    2014-02-01

    A key factor for sustainable management of groundwater systems is the accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are common tools for such estimations and widely used. As such models need to be calibrated against measured values, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. We present a nested multi-response calibration approach for a semi-distributed hydrological model in the semi-arid catchment of Wadi al Arab in Jordan, with sparsely available runoff data. The basic idea of the calibration approach is to use diverse observations in a nested strategy, in which sub-parts of the model are calibrated to various observation data types in a consecutive manner. First, the available different data sources have to be screened for information content of processes, e.g. if data sources contain information on mean values, spatial or temporal variability etc. for the entire catchment or only sub-catchments. In a second step, the information content has to be mapped to relevant model components, which represent these processes. Then the data source is used to calibrate the respective subset of model parameters, while the remaining model parameters remain unchanged. This mapping is repeated for other available data sources. In that study the gauged spring discharge (GSD) method, flash flood observations and data from the chloride mass balance (CMB) are used to derive plausible parameter ranges for the conceptual hydrological model J2000g. The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is used to validate the model. Results from modelling using a priori parameter values from literature as a benchmark are compared. The estimated recharge rates of the calibrated model deviate less than ±10% from the estimates derived from WTF method. Larger differences are visible in the years with high uncertainties in rainfall input data. The performance of the calibrated model during validation produces better results than applying the model with only a priori parameter

  11. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

    2014-11-15

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.

  12. Constraining a semi-distributed, conceptual hydrological model on evaporation - a case study for the Kulpawn River Basin, Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijzink, Remko C.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological models are typically calibrated on stream flow observations. However, such data are frequently not available. In addition, in many parts of the world not stream flow, but rather evaporation and transpiration are the largest fluxes from hydrological systems. Nevertheless, models trained to evaporation data are rare and typically rely on evaporation estimates that were themselves also derived from models, thereby considerably reducing the robustness of such approaches. In this study, we test the power of alternative approaches to constrain semi-distributed, conceptual models with information on evaporation in the absence of stream flow data. By gradually increasing the constraining information, the analysis is designed in a stepwise way. Both, the models and the relevance of the added information are evaluated for each step. As a first step, a large set of random parameter sets from uniform prior distributions is generated. Subsequently, parameter sets that cannot produce model outputs that satisfy the added constraints are discarded. The information content of these constraints will be gradually increased by making use of the Budyko framework: (1) the model has to reproduce the long-term average actual evaporation of the system, as indicated by the position in the Budyko framework, (2) the model, similarly, has to reproduce the long-term average seasonal variations of actual evaporation, (3) the model has to reproduce the temporal variations of evaporation, e.g. differences between 5-year mean evaporation of different periods, as indicated by different positions in the Budyko framework. As a last step, the model's temporal dynamics in the root zone moisture content are constrained by comparing it to time series of the NDII (Normalized Difference Infrared Index), which has recently been shown to be a close proxy for plant available water in the root zone and, thus, for transpiration rates ( Sriwongsitanon et al., 2015). The value of the information

  13. Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

    2010-10-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

  14. Comparison of hydrologic response between a conceptual and a travel time distribution model for a snow-covered alpine catchment using Alpine3D

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comola, Francesco; Lehning, Michael; Bavay, Mathias; Mutzner, Raphaël; Schaefli, Bettina; Rinaldo, Andrea; Parlange, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Fully distributed models of alpine catchment surface processes typically use the geomorphological information provided by digital maps for describing the dynamics of rain, snow, soil and vegetation with much detail. Physically based hydrological models would also require a detailed description of the sub-surface characteristics, which is hardly available. With the increased use of detailed and highly distributed models of surface transport the lack of adequate treatment of sub-surface processes becomes the serious bottle neck. In the past, conceptual hydrological models have been widely applied also for mountain catchments. Their parameters, however, require careful calibration since they do not generally have any direct physical meaning. This motivates the testing of a spatially-explicit hydrologic response model based on geomorphologic travel time distributions, in connection with the detailed description of alpine surface processes as provided by Alpine3D. Moreover, mountain basins are generally characterized by shallow soil layers and the runoff response is highly influenced by the significant topographical gradients, which may favour travel time distribution approaches based on geomorphological information. In this contribution we present the comparison between the conceptual snowmelt/rainfall-runoff model currently implemented in Alpine3D and the spatially-explicit hydrological response model. In particular we characterize the response during snowmelt, considering patchy snow covers in the Dischma and Val Ferret catchments (Grisons and Valais, Switzerland). We show that the spatially-explicit hydrological response model, which explicitly accounts for geomorphologic travel time distributions reacts adequately to spatially varying water input from melting snow. We conclude that a spatially-explicit hydrological model presents an interesting new avenue for the simulation of the hydrologic response of mountain catchments with Alpine3D.

  15. A Revised Conceptual Model for Hydrologic Controls on Stream Nitrate Concentrations (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, J. M.; Band, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Long term weekly sampling of stream chemistry at Pond Branch, MD USA, a 37ha forested watershed in the Piedmont physiographic province, has revealed recurrent summer peaks in nitrate concentrations and loads. The timing and magnitude of nitrogen export has been associated with factors ranging from catchment initial and boundary conditions, ecosystem, and edaphic factors. However, at weekly temporal resolution, only seasonal inferences can be drawn as to the combination of biogeochemical and hydrological processes that create these patterns. This work examines the role of hydro-climatic variability on in-stream nitrate concentration using high temporal resolution sensor data. By examining periods of time throughout the growing season (early, mid, and late) we investigate how the combined roles of net nitrate production and hydrologic transport are controlled by hydro-climatic conditions. Pond Branch appears to shift from a nitrate supply driven to a transport driven system over the course of the growing season. At least one of the relatively large rises in 2011 in nitrate export occured at baseflow, over a period of just four days, which was coincident with increases in riparian zone soil oxygen. We show that the frequency of rainfall events could control the amount of nitrate that can accumulate in near-stream variable source regions in early summer and that by mid-summer, when net nitrate production is maximized and consumption is constant, rainfall magnitude and duration control flushing. The research suggests that nitrate concentration-discharge relationships are time variable over very short durations and load estimation techniques should evolve to include the diel structure in data.

  16. Hydrological models are mediating models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  17. Geohydrology, water quality, and conceptual model of the hydrologic system Saco Landfill area, Saco, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nielsen, M.G.; Stone, J.R.; Hansen, B.P.; Nielsen, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    A geohydrologic study of the Saco Municipal Landfill in Saco, Maine, was done during 1993-94 to provide a preliminary interpretation of the geology and hydrology needed to guide additional studies at the landfill as part of the Superfund Program. The Saco Landfill, which was active from the early 1960's until 1986, includes three disposal areas on a-90-acre parcel. Sandy Brook, a small perennial stream, flows from north to south through the land- fill between the disposal areas. Discharge of leachate from the disposal areas to aquifers and streams has been documented since 1974. The landfill was declared a Superfund site in 1990 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Multiple lines of evidence are used in this study to indicate areas of ground-water contamination and sources of water flow in Sandy Brook. The geohydrologic system on the east side of Sandy Brook consists of an upper water-table aquifer and a lower aquifer, separated by a thick sequence of glaciomarine silt and clay. Depths to bedrock range from 60 to more than 200 ft (feet), on the basis of data from seismic-refraction studies and drilling. The upper aquifer, which is generally less than 15 ft thick, consists of fine- to medium-grained sand deposited in a shallow postglacial marine environment. The lower aquifer, which was deposited as a series of glaciomarine fans, contains two sediment types: well-sorted sand *and gravel and unsorted sediments called diamict sediments. East of Sandy Brook, the thickness of the lower aquifer ranges from 25 to 100 ft, based on drilling at the landfill. The glaciomarine silts and clays (known as the presumpscot Formation) range from 50 to more than 100 ft thick. West of Sandy Brook, the glaciomarine silt and clay is largely absent, and fractured bedrock is very close to land surface under one of the disposal areas in the northwestern part of the property. The lower aquifer is unconfined in the southwestern side of the study area; bedrock slopes towards the south

  18. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    PubMed

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications.

  19. A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, D.; Tian, F.; Lin, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2015-02-01

    The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the

  20. Conceptual Model of Hydrologic and Thermal Conditions of the Eastbank Aquifer System near Rocky Reach Dam, Douglas County, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Heeswijk, Marijke; Cox, Stephen E.; Huffman, Raegan L.; Curran, Christopher A.

    2008-01-01

    2006 and seasonal pumpage patterns were relatively stable, reported trends of increasing temperatures of water pumped by the hatchery well field are most likely explained by increasing trends in river temperatures. Most of the water pumped by the hatchery well field recharges in an area west to southwest of the well field about 2 months prior to the time it is pumped from the aquifer. The northern extent of the hatchery well field may pump some colder water from a bedrock depression to the north and west of the well field. The conceptual model of hydrologic and thermal conditions is supported by analyses of historical water temperatures, water-level data collected on July 18, 2007, and dissolved-constituent and bacterial concentrations in samples collected on August 20?22, 2007.

  1. Using combined hydrological variables for extracting functional signatures of catchments to better assess the acceptability of model structures in conceptual catchment modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, O.; Hrachowitz, M.; RUIZ, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Savenije, H.

    2013-12-01

    While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics of a system, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. This is likely to make them inadequate to simulate solutes transport. For example, the hysteresis between storage and discharge, which is often observed in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely well reproduced by models. One main reason is that this hysteresis has little weight in the calibration because objective functions are based on time series of individual variables. This reduces the ability of classical calibration/validation procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypothesis associated with hydrological models. Calibrating models on variables derived from the combination of different individual variables (like stream discharge and groundwater levels) is a way to insure that models will be accepted based on their consistency. Here we therefore test the value of this more systems-like approach to test different hypothesis on the behaviour of a small experimental low-land catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys) where a high hysteresis is observed on the stream flow vs. shallow groundwater level relationship. Several conceptual models were applied to this site, and calibrated using objective functions based on metrics of this hysteresis. The tested model structures differed with respect to the storage function in each reservoir, the storage-discharge function in each reservoir, the deep loss expressions (as constant or variable fraction), the number of reservoirs (from 1 to 4) and their organization (parallel, series). The observed hysteretic groundwater level-discharge relationship was not satisfactorily reproduced by most of the tested models except for the most complex ones. Those were thus more consistent, their underlying hypotheses are probably more realistic even though their performance for simulating observed stream flow was decreased. Selecting models based on such systems-like approach is

  2. Integrating SMOS brightness temperatures with a new conceptual spatially distributed hydrological model for improving flood and drought predictions at large scale.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hostache, Renaud; Rains, Dominik; Chini, Marco; Lievens, Hans; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Matgen, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Motivated by climate change and its impact on the scarcity or excess of water in many parts of the world, several agencies and research institutions have taken initiatives in monitoring and predicting the hydrologic cycle at a global scale. Such a monitoring/prediction effort is important for understanding the vulnerability to extreme hydrological events and for providing early warnings. This can be based on an optimal combination of hydro-meteorological models and remote sensing, in which satellite measurements can be used as forcing or calibration data or for regularly updating the model states or parameters. Many advances have been made in these domains and the near future will bring new opportunities with respect to remote sensing as a result of the increasing number of spaceborn sensors enabling the large scale monitoring of water resources. Besides of these advances, there is currently a tendency to refine and further complicate physically-based hydrologic models to better capture the hydrologic processes at hand. However, this may not necessarily be beneficial for large-scale hydrology, as computational efforts are therefore increasing significantly. As a matter of fact, a novel thematic science question that is to be investigated is whether a flexible conceptual model can match the performance of a complex physically-based model for hydrologic simulations at large scale. In this context, the main objective of this study is to investigate how innovative techniques that allow for the estimation of soil moisture from satellite data can help in reducing errors and uncertainties in large scale conceptual hydro-meteorological modelling. A spatially distributed conceptual hydrologic model has been set up based on recent developments of the SUPERFLEX modelling framework. As it requires limited computational efforts, this model enables early warnings for large areas. Using as forcings the ERA-Interim public dataset and coupled with the CMEM radiative transfer model

  3. Incorporating expert knowledge in calibrating a complex hydrological conceptual model: A FLEX-TOPO case study for a central European meso-scale catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gao, Hongkai; Euser, Tanja; Savenije, Huub

    2013-04-01

    Catchments are open systems meaning that it is impossible to find out the exact boundary conditions of the real system spatially and temporarily. Therefore models are essential tools in capturing system behavior spatially and extrapolating it temporarily for prediction. In recent years conceptual models have been in the center of attention rather than so called physically based models which are often over-parameterized and encounter difficulties for up-scaling of small scale processes. Conceptual models however are heavily dependent on calibration as one or more of their parameters can typically not be physically measured at the catchment scale. Parallel to the evolution of modeling attempts, our understanding of rainfall/runoff models increased due to improvements of measurement techniques. Heavily instrumented catchments have been studied, and measured system responses have been modeled for testing a priori hypothesis of system function. Although our understanding of how catchments may work has increased the lessons learned from the case specific studies remain locally valid and are not widely used in model calibration and development. In this study we try to constrain parameters of a complex conceptual model built on landscape units classified according to their hydrological functions, based on our logical considerations and general lessons from previous studies across the globe for the Luxembourgish meso-scale Wark catchment. The classified landscapes were used to assign different model structures to the individual hydrological response units. As an example deep percolation was defined as dominant process for plateaus, while rapid subsurface flow as dominant process for hillslope, and saturation overland flow as dominant process for wetlands. The modeled runoffs from each hydrological unit were combined in a parallel set-up to proportionally contribute to the total catchment runoff. The hydrological units are, in addition, linked by a common groundwater

  4. Incorporating expert knowledge in a complex hydrological conceptual model: A FLEX-TOPO case study for a central European meso-scale catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gharari, S.; Hrachowitz, M.; Fenicia, F.; Gao, H.; Savenije, H.

    2013-12-01

    Models are essential tools in capturing system behavior, catchments, spatially and extrapolating it temporarily for prediction. In recent years conceptual models have been in the center of attention rather than so called physically based models which are often over-parameterized and encounter difficulties for up-scaling of small scale processes. Conceptual models however are heavily dependent on calibration as one or more of their parameters can typically not be physically measured at the catchment scale. In this study we try to constrain parameters of a complex conceptual model built on landscape units classified according to their hydrological functions, based on our logical considerations and general lessons from previous studies across the globe for the Luxembourgish meso-scale Wark catchment. The classified landscapes were used to assign different model structures to the individual hydrological response units. As an example deep percolation was defined as dominant process for plateaus, while rapid subsurface flow as dominant process for hillslope, and saturation overland flow as dominant process for wetlands. The modeled runoffs from each hydrological unit were combined in a parallel set-up to proportionally contribute to the total catchment runoff. The hydrological units are, in addition, linked by a common groundwater reservoir. The parallel hydrological units, although increasing the number of parameters, have the benefit of separate calibration. By stepwise calibration different mechanisms can be calibrated at periods when these mechanisms are active in isolation. For instance, the groundwater module is calibrated during dry season recession and the wetland module during isolated summer storms when the hillslopes are below the activation threshold. Moreover, one can constrain parameters by realistic conditions. As an example, the lag time of wetlands is likely to be shorter than the lag time of water traveling to the outlet from a plateau. Moreover, due to

  5. A Conceptual and Numerical Model for Thermal-Hydrological-Chemical Processes in the Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnenthal, Eric L.; Spycher, Nicolas F.; Conrad, Mark; Apps, John

    2003-07-01

    A numerical model was developed to predict the coupled thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes accompanying the Drift Scale Test (DST) at Yucca Mountain, NV. The DST has been closely monitored through the collection of gas, water, and mineral samples as well as thermal, hydrological, and mechanical measurements. A two-dimensional dual permeability model was developed to evaluate multiphase, multicomponent, reaction-transport processes in the fractured tuff. Comparisons between results using the TOUGHREACT code and measured water (e.g., pH, SiO2(aq), Na+, K+) and gas (CO2) compositions show that the model captures the chemical evolution in the DST. Non-reactive aqueous species (e.g., Cl) show strong dilution in fracture waters, indicating little fracture-matrix interaction. Silica concentrations are higher than in the initial pore water and show a trend of increasing reaction with fracture-lining silicates at higher temperatures. The narrow precipitation zone of predominantly amorphous silica observed above the heaters was also captured.

  6. Development of the Conceptual Models for Chemical Conditions and Hydrology Used in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    LARSON, KURT W

    2000-05-24

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a US Department of Energy (DOE) facility for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations specify that the DOE must demonstrate on a sound basis that the WIPP disposal system will effectively contain long-lived alpha-emitting radionuclides within its boundaries for 10,000 years following closure. In 1996, the DOE submitted the ''40 CFR Part 191 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant'' (CCA) to the EPA. The CCA proposed that the WIPP site complies with EPA's regulatory requirements. Contained within the CCA are descriptions of the scientific research conducted to characterize the properties of the WIPP site and the probabilistic performance assessment (PA) conducted to predict the containment properties of the WIPP disposal system. In May 1998, the EPA certified that the TRU waste disposal at the WIPP complies with its regulations. Waste disposal operations at WIPP commenced on March 28, 1999. The 1996 WIPP PA model of the disposal system included conceptual and mathematical representations of key hydrologic and geochemical processes. These key processes were identified over a 22-year period involving data collection, data interpretation, computer models, and sensitivity studies to evaluate the importance of uncertainty and of processes that were difficult to evaluate by other means. Key developments in the area of geochemistry were the evaluation of gas generation mechanisms in the repository; development of a model of chemical conditions in the repository and actinide concentrations in brine; selecting MgO backfill and demonstrating its effects experimentally; and determining the chemical retardation capability of the Culebra. Key developments in the area of hydrology were evacuating the potential for groundwater to dissolve the Salado Formation (the repository host formation), development of a regional model for

  7. Non-stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis using a Conceptual Hydrologic Model with Time-varying Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, L.; Xiong, L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent evidences of the impact of natural variation in the climatic system as well as the potential influence of human activities on the hydrological cycle have made the assumption of stationarity widely questioned. In this study, we explore the possibility of deriving frequency distributions of extreme discharges considering non-stationarity by continuous simulation. Two approaches to non-stationary modeling in rainfall-runoff model GR4J were applied to annual maximum flood records of the Weihe River Basin (WRB), China. In the first approach, the parameter in GR4J describing the catchment storage was treated as a function of time only, while in the second one the specific parameter was regarded as a function of the climatic factors (annual mean temperature) and socio-economic factors (reservoir storage and water-soil conservation land area). The results of both approaches show a better performance in simulating runoff progress, especially the annual maximum flow series than the stationary GR4J model. It is demonstrated that, within the prescribed limits, the modified GR4J models can adequately achieve both flood frequency and continuous simulation modeling goals. Finally, the application of the non-stationary analysis shows the presence of apparent non-stationarities in the flow regime and that the differences between the stationary and non-stationary quantiles may be significant over a long period of time. This study can serve as a reference for regional planning and management of water resources in the WRB, and possibly for other river basins on the globe under massive influences of human activities and climate change.

  8. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 2; Aggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schamschula, Marius; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Yates, Thomas; Laymen, Charles A.; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    This is a follow up on the preceding presentation by Crosson. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to aggregate the hydrological model outputs for soil moisture to allow comparison with measurements. Weighted neighborhood averaging methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. We will also discuss such complications as misalignment, rotation and other distortions introduced by a generalized sensor image.

  9. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 2; Aggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schamschula, Marius; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Yates, Thomas; Laymen, Charles A.; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    This is a follow up on the preceding presentation by Crosson. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to aggregate the hydrological model outputs for soil moisture to allow comparison with measurements. Weighted neighborhood averaging methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. We will also discuss such complications as misalignment, rotation and other distortions introduced by a generalized sensor image.

  10. A conceptual hydrologic model for a forested Carolina bay depressional wetland on the Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA

    Treesearch

    Jennifer E. Pyzoha; Timothy J. Callahan; Ge Sun; Carl C. Trettin; Masato Miwa

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how climate influences the hydrology of an ephemeral depressional wetland. Surface water and groundwater elevation data were collected for 7 years in a Coastal Plain watershed in South Carolina USA containing depressional wetlands, known as Carolina bays. Rainfall and temperature data were compared with water-table well and piezometer data in and...

  11. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  12. Hydrological modelling in forested systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

  13. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  14. Hydrological mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon in a snow-dominated, forested watershed: Conceptualization and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schelker, J.; Burns, D. A.; Weiler, M.; Laudon, H.

    2011-03-01

    The mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during snowmelt often accounts for a major fraction of the annual loads. We studied the role of hydrological connectivity of riparian wetlands and upland/wetland transition zones to surface waters on the mobilization of Hg and DOC in Fishing Brook, a headwater of the Adirondack Mountains, New York. Stream water total mercury (THg) concentrations varied strongly (mean = 2.25 ± 0.5 ng L-1), and the two snowmelt seasons contributed 40% (2007) and 48% (2008) of the annual load. Methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations ranged up to 0.26 ng L-1, and showed an inverse log relationship with discharge. TOPMODEL-simulated saturated area corresponded well with wetland areas, and the application of a flow algorithm based elevation-above-creek approach suggests that most wetlands become well connected during high flow. The dynamics of simulated saturated area and soil storage deficit were able to explain a large part of the variation of THg concentrations (r2 = 0.53 to 0.72). In contrast, the simulations were not able to explain DOC variations and DOC and THg concentrations were not correlated. These results indicate that all three constituents, THg, MeHg, and DOC, follow different patterns at the outlet: (1) the mobilization of THg is primarily controlled by the saturation state of the catchment, (2) the dilution of MeHg suggests flushing from a supply limited pool, and (3) DOC dynamics follow a pattern different from THg dynamics, which likely results from differing gain and/or loss processes for THg and/or DOC within the Fishing Brook catchment.

  15. Hydrological mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon in a snow-dominated, forested watershed: Conceptualization and modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schelker, J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Weiler, M.; Laudon, H.

    2011-01-01

    The mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during snowmelt often accounts for a major fraction of the annual loads. We studied the role of hydrological connectivity of riparian wetlands and upland/wetland transition zones to surface waters on the mobilization of Hg and DOC in Fishing Brook, a headwater of the Adirondack Mountains, New York. Stream water total mercury (THg) concentrations varied strongly (mean = 2.25 ?? 0.5 ng L -1), and the two snowmelt seasons contributed 40% (2007) and 48% (2008) of the annual load. Methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations ranged up to 0.26 ng L-1, and showed an inverse log relationship with discharge. TOPMODEL-simulated saturated area corresponded well with wetland areas, and the application of a flow algorithm based elevation-above-creek approach suggests that most wetlands become well connected during high flow. The dynamics of simulated saturated area and soil storage deficit were able to explain a large part of the variation of THg concentrations (r2 = 0.53 to 0.72). In contrast, the simulations were not able to explain DOC variations and DOC and THg concentrations were not correlated. These results indicate that all three constituents, THg, MeHg, and DOC, follow different patterns at the outlet: (1) the mobilization of THg is primarily controlled by the saturation state of the catchment, (2) the dilution of MeHg suggests flushing from a supply limited pool, and (3) DOC dynamics follow a pattern different from THg dynamics, which likely results from differing gain and/or loss processes for THg and/or DOC within the Fishing Brook catchment. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter

  17. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  18. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 3; Disaggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caulfield, John; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Laymon, Charles A.; Schamschula, Marius

    1998-01-01

    This is a followup on the preceding presentation by Crosson and Schamschula. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to disaggregate the microwave measurements to allow comparison with outputs from the hydrological models. Weighted interpolation and Bayesian methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. While remote measurements occur at a large scale, they reflect underlying small-scale features. We can give continuing estimates of the small scale features by correcting the simple 0th-order, starting with each small-scale model with each large-scale measurement using a straightforward method based on Kalman filtering.

  19. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 3; Disaggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caulfield, John; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Laymon, Charles A.; Schamschula, Marius

    1998-01-01

    This is a followup on the preceding presentation by Crosson and Schamschula. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to disaggregate the microwave measurements to allow comparison with outputs from the hydrological models. Weighted interpolation and Bayesian methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. While remote measurements occur at a large scale, they reflect underlying small-scale features. We can give continuing estimates of the small scale features by correcting the simple 0th-order, starting with each small-scale model with each large-scale measurement using a straightforward method based on Kalman filtering.

  20. Multi-criteria evaluation of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Clark, Martyn; Weerts, Albrecht; Hill, Mary; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Over the last years, there is a tendency in the hydrological community to move from the simple conceptual models towards more complex, physically/process-based hydrological models. This is because conceptual models often fail to simulate the dynamics of the observations. However, there is little agreement on how much complexity needs to be considered within the complex process-based models. One way to proceed to is to improve understanding of what is important and unimportant in the models considered. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate structural model adequacy using alternative conceptual and process-based models of hydrological systems, with an emphasis on understanding how model complexity relates to observed hydrological processes. Some of the models require considerable execution time and the computationally frugal sensitivity analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification methods are well-suited to providing important insights for models with lengthy execution times. The current experiment evaluates two version of the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), which both enable running model inter-comparison experiments. One supports computationally efficient conceptual models, and the second supports more-process-based models that tend to have longer execution times. The conceptual FUSE combines components of 4 existing conceptual hydrological models. The process-based framework consists of different forms of Richard's equations, numerical solutions, groundwater parameterizations and hydraulic conductivity distribution. The hydrological analysis of the model processes has evolved from focusing only on simulated runoff (final model output), to also including other criteria such as soil moisture and groundwater levels. Parameter importance and associated structural importance are evaluated using different types of sensitivity analyses techniques, making use of both robust global methods (e.g. Sobol') as well as several

  1. Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model.

    PubMed

    Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A

    2017-09-15

    In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Model Building for Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David; Strobel, Johannes; Gottdenker, Joshua

    2005-01-01

    Conceptual change is a popular, contemporary conception of meaningful learning. Conceptual change describes changes in conceptual frameworks (mental models or personal theories) that learners construct to comprehend phenomena. Different theories of conceptual change describe the reorganization of conceptual frameworks that results from different…

  3. Thermal-hydrological models

    SciTech Connect

    Buscheck, T., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    This chapter describes the physical processes and natural and engineered system conditions that affect thermal-hydrological (T-H) behavior in the unsaturated zone (UZ) at Yucca Mountain and how these effects are represented in mathematical and numerical models that are used to predict T-H conditions in the near field, altered zone, and engineered barrier system (EBS), and on waste package (WP) surfaces.

  4. Conceptual IT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaoudova, Kristina; Stanchev, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The business processes are the key asset for every organization. The design of the business process models is the foremost concern and target among an organization's functions. Business processes and their proper management are intensely dependent on the performance of software applications and technology solutions. The paper is attempt for definition of new Conceptual model of IT service provider, it could be examined as IT focused Enterprise model, part of Enterprise Architecture (EA) school.

  5. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  6. Implications of conceptual channel representation on SWAT streamflow and sediment modeling

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of...

  7. Hydrological modeling in forested systems

    Treesearch

    H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

  8. Modelling Hydrological Effects on Gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pálinkás, V.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrological effects on gravity have sizeable impact on the accurate terrestrial gravity observations with superconducting (SG) and absolute gravimeters (AG). These effects, that contain strong seasonal signals, represent important problem in AG and SG observation feasibility in current geodynamic studies (Earth recent dynamics, post-glacial rebound, long-period tides, etc.). At present, hydrological effects are reliably estimated only at few SG stations, where detailed hydro-geological studies of station vicinity and many hydro-meteorological observations are being realized. However, the knowledge of hydrological effects with an accuracy of about 1 microgal are also very important at many sites, where accurate repeated absolute gravity measurements are performed. Unfortunately, very expensive detailed hydrological studies of such stations are unrealistic. Presented are the results of hydrological effects on gravity computed on basis of widespread WGHM and LaDWorld hydrological models. For Europe a global contribution of hydrological effects (distance>2 km) is computed. The local contribution of hydrological effects (distance<2 km) is modelled for the station Pecný based on the nearest WGHM data and variable information about station vicinity. The modelled hydrological effects are compared with combined SG and AG gravity series at the station.

  9. Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

    2011-12-01

    Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

  10. Modeling the Interactions between Hydrological Extremes, Water Management and Society.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Fabian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Kalantari, Zahra

    2016-04-01

    Over the past years, several studies have focused on exploring human impacts on the hydrological regime. Even though the dominant hydrological processes are mostly well understood, there are still several challenges related to modeling the coevolution of human impacts on (and responses to) hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Some initial modeling attempts have proved to capture the essential dynamics emerging from two-way feedbacks between hydrological and social processes. However, they have predominantly focused on flooding. This research aims to develop a new conceptual model unraveling the interplay between hydrological extremes (floods and droughts) and human societies in a changing climate. In particular, this socio-hydrological model aims at understanding, and predicting the dynamics of coupled human-water systems to explain and capture how the occurrence of hydrological extremes changes water management approach, and how such a change (in turn) mitigates the impacts of hydrological extremes. The conceptual model is then applied to a case study to test its ability in simulating the dynamics emerging from the interplay between hydrological and social processes.

  11. Recursive parameter estimation of hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajaram, Harihar; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

    1989-02-01

    Proposed is a nonlinear filtering approach to recursive parameter estimation of conceptual watershed response models in state-space form. The conceptual model state is augmented by the vector of free parameters which are to be estimated from input-output data, and the extended Kaiman filter is used to recursively estimate and predict the augmented state. The augmented model noise covariance is parameterized as the sum of two components: one due to errors in the augmented model input and another due to errors in the specification of augmented model constants that were estimated from other than input-output data (e.g., topographic and rating curve constants). These components depend on the sensitivity of the augmented model to input and uncertain constants. Such a novel parameterization allows for nonstationary model noise statistics that are consistent with the dynamics of watershed response as they are described by the conceptual watershed response model. Prior information regarding uncertainty in input and uncertain constants in the form of degree-of-belief estimates of hydrologists can be used directly within the proposed formulation. Even though model structure errors are not explicitly parameterized in the present formulation, such errors can be identified through the examination of the one-step ahead predicted normalized residuals and the parameter traces during convergence. The formulation is exemplified by the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual hydrologic model with data from the 2.1-km2 watershed of Woods Lake located in the Adirondack Mountains of New York.

  12. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  13. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  14. Monthly Hydrological Model Evaluation through Mapping the Hydrological Pattern to Information Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, B.; Cong, Z.

    2014-12-01

    Conceptual and stochastic monthly hydrological models have been widely used for climatic change impact exploration and long-range stream flow forecast. With disparate philosophies and different but insufficient inputs, most of the existing models are capable of generating satisfying outputs, which reveals a relatively robust idiosyncrasy of hydrological pattern over monthly time scale. This research uses the epistemic-aleatory uncertainties evaluation framework to examine the information source sink terms and flows of 6 conceptual monthly water balance models and a seasonal autoregressive stochastic hydrologic model over 19 basins in Jiangxi Province, China and the experiment basins of MOPEX project. By using the stream technique of Lisp, we constructed two programming paradigms into which the hydrological models mentioned above could be fitted. We focus on detecting and explaining the best achievable predictive performances and data-revealed insufficient of the models in each paradigm, especially the hydrological meaning of the iteration variables in these models. Finally, we make an attempt to compare and connect these two paradigms against the backdrop of algorithmic information theory to help us form a better understanding of monthly hydrological pattern.

  15. Mental Models, Conceptual Models, and Modelling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greca, Ileana Maria; Moreira, Marco Antonio

    2000-01-01

    Reviews science education research into representations constructed by students in their interactions with the world, its phenomena, and artefacts. Features discussions of mental models, conceptual models, and the activity of modeling. (Contains 30 references.) (Author/WRM)

  16. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. Part 1; Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Inguva, Ramarao; Schamschula, Marius; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean

  17. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. Part 1; Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Inguva, Ramarao; Schamschula, Marius; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean

  18. Hydrology and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands: Conceptual framework and field studies

    SciTech Connect

    Wilcox, B.P.; Breshears, D.D.

    1994-09-01

    Pinyon-juniper woodlands represent an important ecosystem in the semiarid western United States. Concern over the sustainability of, and management approaches for, these woodlands is increasing. As in other semiarid environments, water dynamics and vegetation patterns in pinyon-juniper woodlands are highly interrelated. An understanding of these relationships can aid in evaluating various management strategies. In this paper we describe a conceptual framework designed to increase our understanding of water and vegetation in pinyon-juniper woodlands. The framework comprises five different scales, at each of which the landscape is divided into {open_quotes}functional units{close_quotes} on the basis of hydrologic characteristics. The hydrologic behavior of each unit and the connections between units are being evaluated using an extensive network of hydrological and ecological field studies on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. Data from these studies, coupled with application of the conceptual model, have led to the development of a number of hypotheses concerning the interrelationships of water and vegetation in pinyon-juniper woodlands.

  19. Catchment classification by means of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellebrand, Hugo; Ley, Rita; Casper, Markus

    2013-04-01

    An important hydrological objective is catchment classification that will serve as a basis for the regionalisation of discharge parameters or model parameters. The main task of this study is the development and assessment of two classification approaches with respect to their efficiency in catchment classification. The study area in western Germany comprises about 80 catchments that range in size from 8 km2 up to 1500 km2, covering a wide range of geological substrata, soils, landscapes and mean annual precipitation. In a first approach Self Organising Maps (SOMs) use discharge characteristics or catchment characteristics to classify the catchments of the study area. Next, a reference hydrological model calibrates the catchments of the study area and tests the possibilities of parameter transfer. Compared to the transfer of parameters outside a class, for most catchments the model performance improves when parameters within a class are transferred. Thus, it should be possible to distinguish catchment classes by means of a hydrological model. The classification results of the SOM are compared to the classification results of the reference hydrological model in order to determine the latter validity. The second approach builds on the first approach in such a way that it uses the Superflex Modelling Framework instead of only one reference model. Within this framework multiple conceptual model structures can be calibrated and adapted. Input data for each calibration of a catchment are hourly time series of runoff, precipitation and evaporation for at least eight years. The calibration of multiple models for each catchment and their comparison allows for the assessment of the influence of different model structures on model performance. Learning loops analyse model performance and adapt model structures accordingly with a view to performance improvement. The result of the modelling exercise is a best performing model structure for each catchment that serves as a basis

  20. Using hydrological modelling for a preliminary assessment of under-catch of precipitation in some Alpine Catchments of Sierra Nevada (Spain). Sensitivity to different conceptual approaches and spatio-temporal scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pegalajar-Cuellar, Manuel; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

    2017-04-01

    Precipitation (P) measurements show important biases due to under-catch, especially in windy conditions. Gauges modify the wind fields, producing important under-catch in solid P. In this work we intent to perform a global assessment of the under-catch phenomenon in some alpine catchments of Sierra Nevada Mountain Range (Spain) by using different conceptual hydrological models. They are based on the available information about daily natural streamflow and daily fields of P and temperature (T) in each catchment. We want to analyse long time periods (more than 20 years at daily scale) in order to obtain conclusions taking into account the stochastic behaviour of the natural streamflow and P and T variables. The natural streamflowin each basin has been obtained from the streamflow measurements in the gauges by making some simple mathematical operations to eliminate the anthropic influences. The daily climatic fieldswere estimated with spatial resolution of 1kmx1km by applying geostatistic techniques using data coming from 119climatic gauges existing in the area.We have considered to model options: Monthly and yearly variogram to characterize the spatial data correlation. The Elevation has been considered as secondary variable for the estimation. The analysis of the experimental data showed a linear relationhip between mean T and elevation. Therefore, we decided to apply a kriging with linear external drift to estimate the P and T fields. The mean daily P data show a quadratic relationship with the elevation. Different hypothesis have been considered to approach these P fields by applying kriging with linear drift, with quadratic drift, and regression kriging. A cross-validation analysis showed that the best approximation to the data is obtained with the kriging with linear drift. The P and T fields obtained with this technique were employed to feed different hydrological models in which different conceptual approaches of the hydrological processes related with the

  1. eLac - Conceptual Model for Flood Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rata, Marius; Florentin Draghia, Aurelian; Drobot, Radu; Matreata, Marius; Corbus, Ciprian

    2015-04-01

    This article reviews the conceptual model of the decision support system (DSS) for flood management activities introduced in the scope of e-LAC project. Following the general system architecture which has an emphasize on the water management decision processes, hydrologic and hydraulic models are introduced and discussed according to their specific DSS integration potential. Three directions are discussed in dedicated sections corresponding to the main modules defined in the conceptual model : the Water Basin Management Module (mainly implements the management decision flow, but manages also data exchange between hydrologic modeling module and hydraulic modeling module, allow real time visualization for hydrological data), the Hydrologic Modeling Module (manages all the modeling functionalities of rainfalls - runoff processes, providing continuous hydrologic forecasts with a variable time-step depending on the actual basin situation) and the Hydraulic Modeling Module (computes the flood's waves routing having as boundary upstream conditions the discharge hydrographs, generated both by catchment's upper area, river tributaries and inter-basins, respectively the rating curves, water level hydrograph or water surface slope as downstream condition). The GIS concepts are contextually reviewed based on their use as geospatial database for water management modeling, integration within hydrologic time courses, hydraulic modeling (from both software and management perspective), expert knowledge or mathematical modeling results (knowledge database, rules).

  2. Ecosystem conceptual model- Mercury

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpers, Charles N.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Foe, Chris; Klasing, Susan; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.; Slotton, Darell G.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

    2008-01-01

    mercury conceptual model and its four submodels (1. Methylation, 2. Bioaccumulation, 3. Human Health Effects, and 4. Wildlife Heath Effects) can be used to understand the general relationships among drivers and outcomes associated with mercury cycling in the Delta. Several linkages between important drivers and outcomes have been identified as important but highly uncertain (i.e. poorly understood). For example, there may be significant wildlife health effect of mercury on mammals and reptiles in the Delta, but there is currently very little or no information about it. The characteristics of such linkages are important when prioritizing and funding restoration projects and associated monitoring in the Delta and its tributaries.

  3. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. Part 1; Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Inguva, Ramarao; Schamschula, Marius; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean

  4. Can the super model (SUMO) method improve hydrological simulations? Exploratory tests with the GR hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

    2017-04-01

    Errors made by hydrological models may come from a problem in parameter estimation, uncertainty on observed measurements, numerical problems and from the model conceptualization that simplifies the reality. Here we focus on this last issue of hydrological modeling. One of the solutions to reduce structural uncertainty is to use a multimodel method, taking advantage of the great number and the variability of existing hydrological models. In particular, because different models are not similarly good in all situations, using multimodel approaches can improve the robustness of modeled outputs. Traditionally, in hydrology, multimodel methods are based on the output of the model (the simulated flow series). The aim of this poster is to introduce a different approach based on the internal variables of the models. The method is inspired by the SUper MOdel (SUMO, van den Berge et al., 2011) developed for climatology. The idea of the SUMO method is to correct the internal variables of a model taking into account the values of the internal variables of (an)other model(s). This correction is made bilaterally between the different models. The ensemble of the different models constitutes a super model in which all the models exchange information on their internal variables with each other at each time step. Due to this continuity in the exchanges, this multimodel algorithm is more dynamic than traditional multimodel methods. The method will be first tested using two GR4J models (in a state-space representation) with different parameterizations. The results will be presented and compared to traditional multimodel methods that will serve as benchmarks. In the future, other rainfall-runoff models will be used in the super model. References van den Berge, L. A., Selten, F. M., Wiegerinck, W., and Duane, G. S. (2011). A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning. Earth System Dynamics, 2(1) :161-177.

  5. Play with hydrologic models in R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viglione, A.; Parajka, J.; Nester, T.; Blöschl, G.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this poster is to show the advantages of building hydrologic models using the R environment for educational purposes. As an example we consider a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV type) that was originally written in the fortran language and is used in many scientific studies and practical engineering applications in Austria. A simplified version of the model was built into a R package and compiled for different platforms and operating systems. The model runs on a daily time step and consists of a snow routine, a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine. In this poster we present a set of examples that have been used in a graduate level course on engineering hydrology at the Vienna University of Technology. These include: - Multi-objective calibration of the model; - Manual vs. automatic calibration; - Visualisation of model outputs and efficiency; - Model application in ungauged catchments; - Operational forecast. The flexibility of R is ideal for education, since students can easily play with the extensive list of existing functionalities and define new functions and extensions.

  6. Hydrological modelling of urbanized catchments: A review and future directions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadore, Elga; Bronders, Jan; Batelaan, Okke

    2015-10-01

    In recent years, the conceptual detail of hydrological models has dramatically increased as a result of improved computational techniques and the availability of spatially-distributed digital data. Nevertheless modelling spatially-distributed hydrological processes can be challenging, particularly in strongly heterogeneous urbanized areas. Multiple interactions occur between urban structures and the water system at various temporal and spatial scales. So far, no universal methodology exists for simulating the urban water system at catchment scale. This paper reviews the state of the art on the scientific knowledge and practice of modelling the urban hydrological system at the catchment scale, with the purpose of identifying current limitations and defining a blueprint for future modelling advances. We compare conceptual descriptions of urban physical hydrological processes on basis of a selection of 43 modelling approaches. The complexity of the urban water system at the catchment scale results in an incomplete understanding of the interaction between urban and natural hydrological systems, and in a high degree of uncertainty. Data availability is still a strong limitation since current modelling practice recognizes the need for high spatial and temporal resolution. Spatio-temporal gaps exist between the physical scales of hydrological processes and the resolution of applied models. Therefore urban hydrology is often simplified either as a study of surface runoff over impervious surfaces or hydraulics of piped systems. Many approaches target very specific objectives and the level of detail in representing physical processes is not consistent. Based on our analysis, we propose a blueprint for a highly complex integrated urban hydrological model. We regard flexibility, in terms of model structure and data assimilation, as the key characteristic for overcoming these limitations. We advocate the use of modular, process-based approaches, which are flexible and adaptable

  7. Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

  8. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: the rise and fall of the Ancient Maya civilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2016-04-01

    Different communities have followed different paths to arrive at their present situation as a consequence of the continuous, specific interactions between the hydrological and social system. The need to understand the current and future pathways to water security becomes more and more pressing, considering the increasingly delicate balance between water demand and water supply. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. Within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and drawing from the vulnerability literature, we conceptualize the interactions of an agricultural society with its environment. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a civilization who occupied the Maya Lowlands (parts of present day Mexico, Guatemala, Belize) from around 2000 BC to after AD 830. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the fall of the society is explored. We are able to simulate plausible feedbacks and find that a modest reduction in rainfall is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition in order to observe a collapse of 80 percent of the population. Equally important are actual population density and the impact of drought on crop growth. The model shows that reservoirs allow the society to grow larger, but also that the vulnerability to drought increases.

  9. Socio-hydrological flood models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  10. Representing Watersheds with Physics Based Distributed Hydrologic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Downer, C. W.; Ogden, F. L.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologic models are useful tools for representing watershed response, helping to understand the dominant hydrologic processes in the watershed, and for estimating system response under different forcing, climatic, or physical conditions in the watershed. Model skill in predicting system response is most often demonstrated by history matching. Useful models for predicting system response under varying conditions must include the dominant processes controlling the system response. While many types of hydrologic models are capable of simulating watershed response, physics- based models are capable of simulating the actual physical conditions and responses within the watershed. There are a variety of physics-based hydrologic models available to the practicing community. Like simpler models, these models vary in formulation and complexity. Many of these models, such as the US Army of Corps of Engineers Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, allow flexibility in terms of both processes simulated and the formulation used to approximate the process. This flexibility allows the user to build the model according to his or her understanding or conceptualization, of the system, including processes that are thought to be important to system response. This also allows the user to use more rigorous methods of simulating critical processes and less rigorous methods of simulating non-critical processes or when data limitations preclude the use of more rigorous methods. In this presentation we will discuss how physics based models can, and have, been used to describe various hydrologic systems to both represent the physical processes in the system and the system response. Using examples from a variety of applications we will demonstrate and discuss the utility of utilizing a flexible physics-based model design for realizing watershed conceptualizations for hydrologic analysis.

  11. Conceptual and Numerical Models for UZ Flow and Transport

    SciTech Connect

    H. Liu

    2000-03-03

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the conceptual and numerical models used for modeling of unsaturated zone (UZ) fluid (water and air) flow and solute transport processes. This is in accordance with ''AMR Development Plan for U0030 Conceptual and Numerical Models for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Processes, Rev 00''. The conceptual and numerical modeling approaches described in this AMR are used for models of UZ flow and transport in fractured, unsaturated rock under ambient and thermal conditions, which are documented in separate AMRs. This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR), the Near Field Environment PMR, and the following models: Calibrated Properties Model; UZ Flow Models and Submodels; Mountain-Scale Coupled Processes Model; Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Seepage Model; Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model; Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA); and UZ Radionuclide Transport Models.

  12. Conceptual models of information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, L. J.

    1983-01-01

    The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

  13. Conceptual models of information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, L. J.

    1983-01-01

    The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

  14. Neural Networks for Hydrological Modeling Tool for Operational Purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. Runoff is generally computed using rainfall-runoff models. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular for obtaining hydrological forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia consisting of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models, and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conceptual models actually in use in real catchments. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of RRL and ANNs are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, SimHyd model has been used. Genetic Algorithm has been used as an optimizer in the RRL to calibrate the SimHyd model. Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the GA optimizer to develop the SimHyd model. The results obtained from the best configuration of the SimHyd model are presented here. Feed-forward neural network model structure trained by back-propagation training algorithm has been adopted here to develop the ANN models. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models

  15. Model Breaking Points Conceptualized

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vig, Rozy; Murray, Eileen; Star, Jon R.

    2014-01-01

    Current curriculum initiatives (e.g., National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers 2010) advocate that models be used in the mathematics classroom. However, despite their apparent promise, there comes a point when models break, a point in the mathematical problem space where the model cannot,…

  16. Model Breaking Points Conceptualized

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vig, Rozy; Murray, Eileen; Star, Jon R.

    2014-01-01

    Current curriculum initiatives (e.g., National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers 2010) advocate that models be used in the mathematics classroom. However, despite their apparent promise, there comes a point when models break, a point in the mathematical problem space where the model cannot,…

  17. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  18. HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

    2017-07-01

    Despite growing interest in resilience, there is still significant scope for increasing its conceptual clarity and practical relevance in socio-hydrological contexts: specifically, questions of how socio-hydrological systems respond to and cope with perturbations and how these connect to resilience remain unanswered. In this opinion paper, we propose a novel conceptual framework for understanding and assessing resilience in coupled socio-hydrological contexts, and encourage debate on the inter-connections between socio-hydrology and resilience. Taking a systems perspective, we argue that resilience is a set of systematic properties with three dimensions: absorptive, adaptive, and transformative, and contend that socio-hydrological systems can be viewed as various forms of human-water couplings, reflecting different aspects of these interactions. We propose a framework consisting of two parts. The first part addresses the identity of socio-hydrological resilience, answering questions such as resilience of what in relation to what. We identify three existing framings of resilience for different types of human-water systems and subsystems, which have been used in different fields: (1) the water subsystem, highlighting hydrological resilience to anthropogenic hazards; (2) the human subsystem, foregrounding social resilience to hydrological hazards; and (3) the coupled human-water system, exhibiting socio-hydrological resilience. We argue that these three system types and resiliences afford new insights into the clarification and evaluation of different water management challenges. The first two types address hydrological and social states, while the third type emphasises the feedbacks and interactions between human and water components within complex systems subject to internal or external disturbances. In the second part, we focus on resilience management and develop the notion of the resilience canvas, a novel heuristic device to identify possible

  19. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  20. Conceptual Models for Search Engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendry, D. G.; Efthimiadis, E. N.

    Search engines have entered popular culture. They touch people in diverse private and public settings and thus heighten the importance of such important social matters as information privacy and control, censorship, and equitable access. To fully benefit from search engines and to participate in debate about their merits, people necessarily appeal to their understandings for how they function. In this chapter we examine the conceptual understandings that people have of search engines by performing a content analysis on the sketches that 200 undergraduate and graduate students drew when asked to draw a sketch of how a search engine works. Analysis of the sketches reveals a diverse range of conceptual approaches, metaphors, representations, and misconceptions. On the whole, the conceptual models articulated by these students are simplistic. However, students with higher levels of academic achievement sketched more complete models. This research calls attention to the importance of improving students' technical knowledge of how search engines work so they can be better equipped to develop and advocate policies for how search engines should be embedded in, and restricted from, various private and public information settings.

  1. The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial

  2. Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

  3. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  4. Remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dozier, J.; Estes, J. E.; Simonett, D. S.; Davis, R.; Frew, J.; Marks, D.; Schiffman, K.; Souza, M.; Witebsky, E.

    1977-01-01

    An energy balance snowmelt model for rugged terrain was devised and coupled to a flow model. A literature review of remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling was included along with a software development outline.

  5. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.

    2006-12-01

    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  6. Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-01-01

    Abstract With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger. PMID:27840455

  7. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse.

    PubMed

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-08-01

    With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.

  8. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-08-01

    With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.

  9. Application of hydrologic forecast model.

    PubMed

    Hua, Xu; Hengxin, Xue; Zhiguo, Chen

    2012-01-01

    In order to overcome the shortcoming of the solution may be trapped into the local minimization in the traditional TSK (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy inference training, this paper attempts to consider the TSK fuzzy system modeling approach based on the visual system principle and the Weber law. This approach not only utilizes the strong capability of identifying objects of human eyes, but also considers the distribution structure of the training data set in parameter regulation. In order to overcome the shortcoming of it adopting the gradient learning algorithm with slow convergence rate, a novel visual TSK fuzzy system model based on evolutional learning is proposed by introducing the particle swarm optimization algorithm. The main advantage of this method lies in its very good optimization, very strong noise immunity and very good interpretability. The new method is applied to long-term hydrological forecasting examples. The simulation results show that the method is feasible and effective, the new method not only inherits the advantages of traditional visual TSK fuzzy models but also has the better global convergence and accuracy than the traditional model.

  10. toolkit computational mesh conceptual model.

    SciTech Connect

    Baur, David G.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Cochran, William K.; Williams, Alan B.; Sjaardema, Gregory D.

    2010-03-01

    The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh is a software library intended to support massively parallel multi-physics computations on dynamically changing unstructured meshes. This domain of intended use is inherently complex due to distributed memory parallelism, parallel scalability, heterogeneity of physics, heterogeneous discretization of an unstructured mesh, and runtime adaptation of the mesh. Management of this inherent complexity begins with a conceptual analysis and modeling of this domain of intended use; i.e., development of a domain model. The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh software library is designed and implemented based upon this domain model. Software developers using, maintaining, or extending the Sierra Toolkit computational mesh library must be familiar with the concepts/domain model presented in this report.

  11. Modelling hydrological processes at different scales across Russian permafrost domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarieva, Olga; Lebedeva, Lyudmila; Nesterova, Natalia; Vinogradova, Tatyana

    2017-04-01

    The project aims to study the interactions between permafrost and runoff generation processes across Russian Arctic domain based on hydrological modelling. The uniqueness of the approach is a unified modelling framework which allows for coupled simulations of upper permafrost dynamics and streamflow generation at different scales (from soil column to large watersheds). The base of the project is hydrological model Hydrograph (Vinogradov et al. 2011, Semenova et al. 2013, 2015; Lebedeva et al., 2015). The model algorithms combine physically-based and conceptual approaches for the description of land hydrological cycle processes, which allows for maintaining a balance between the complexity of model design and the use of limited input information. The method for modeling heat dynamics in soil is integrated into the model. Main parameters of the model are the physical properties of landscapes that may be measured (observed) in nature and are classified according to the types of soil, vegetation and other characteristics. A set of parameters specified in the studied catchments (basins analog) can be transferred to ungauged basins with similar types of the underlying surface without calibration. The results of modelling from small research watersheds to large poorly gauged river basins in different climate and landscape settings of Russian Arctic (within the Yenisey, Lena, Yana, Indigirka, Kolyma rivers basins) will be presented. Based on gained experience methodological aspects of hydrological modelling approaches in permafrost environment will be discussed. The study is partially supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects 16-35-50151 and 17-05-01138.

  12. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  13. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  14. Plant adaptive behaviour in hydrological models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Ploeg, M. J.; Teuling, R.

    2013-12-01

    Models that will be able to cope with future precipitation and evaporation regimes need a solid base that describes the essence of the processes involved [1]. Micro-behaviour in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system may have a large impact on patterns emerging at larger scales. A complicating factor in the micro-behaviour is the constant interaction between vegetation and geology in which water plays a key role. The resilience of the coupled vegetation-soil system critically depends on its sensitivity to environmental changes. As a result of environmental changes vegetation may wither and die, but such environmental changes may also trigger gene adaptation. Constant exposure to environmental stresses, biotic or abiotic, influences plant physiology, gene adaptations, and flexibility in gene adaptation [2-6]. Gene expression as a result of different environmental conditions may profoundly impact drought responses across the same plant species. Differences in response to an environmental stress, has consequences for the way species are currently being treated in models (single plant to global scale). In particular, model parameters that control root water uptake and plant transpiration are generally assumed to be a property of the plant functional type. Assigning plant functional types does not allow for local plant adaptation to be reflected in the model parameters, nor does it allow for correlations that might exist between root parameters and soil type. Models potentially provide a means to link root water uptake and transport to large scale processes (e.g. Rosnay and Polcher 1998, Feddes et al. 2001, Jung 2010), especially when powered with an integrated hydrological, ecological and physiological base. We explore the experimental evidence from natural vegetation to formulate possible alternative modeling concepts. [1] Seibert, J. 2000. Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4(2): 215

  15. HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, H. H. G.

    2010-07-01

    Heterogeneity and complexity of hydrological processes offer substantial challenges to the hydrological modeller. Some hydrologists try to tackle this problem by introducing more and more detail in their models, or by setting-up more and more complicated models starting from basic principles at the smallest possible level. As we know, this reductionist approach leads to ever higher levels of equifinality and predictive uncertainty. On the other hand, simple, lumped and parsimonious models may be too simple to be realistic or representative of the dominant hydrological processes. In this commentary, a new model approach is proposed that tries to find the middle way between complex distributed and simple lumped modelling approaches. Here we try to find the right level of simplification while avoiding over-simplification. Paraphrasing Einstein, the maxim is: make a model as simple as possible, but not simpler than that. The approach presented is process based, but not physically based in the traditional sense. Instead, it is based on a conceptual representation of the dominant physical processes in certain key elements of the landscape. The essence of the approach is that the model structure is made dependent on a limited number of landscape classes in which the topography is the main driver, but which can include geological, geomorphological or land-use classification. These classes are then represented by lumped conceptual models that act in parallel. The advantage of this approach over a fully distributed conceptualisation is that it retains maximum simplicity while taking into account observable landscape characteristics.

  16. Test plan for hydrologic modeling of protective barriers

    SciTech Connect

    Fayer, M.J.

    1990-03-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory prepared this test plan for the Model Applications and Validation Task of the Hanford Protective Barriers Program, which is managed by Westinghouse Hanford Company. The objectives of this plan are to outline the conceptual hydrologic model of protective barriers, discuss the available computer codes, describe the interrelationships between the modeling task and the other tasks of the Protective Barriers Program, present the barrier modeling tests, and estimate the schedule and costs of the hydrologic modeling task for planning purposes by the Protective Barriers Program. The purpose of the tests is to validate models that will be used to confirm the long-term performance of the barrier in minimizing drainage. A second purpose of the tests is to provide information to other parts of the Protective Barriers Program that require such information. 26 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, H. H. G.

    2010-12-01

    Heterogeneity and complexity of hydrological processes offer substantial challenges to the hydrological modeller. Some hydrologists try to tackle this problem by introducing more and more detail in their models, or by setting-up more and more complicated models starting from basic principles at the smallest possible level. As we know, this reductionist approach leads to ever higher levels of equifinality and predictive uncertainty. On the other hand, simple, lumped and parsimonious models may be too simple to be realistic or representative of the dominant hydrological processes. In this commentary, a new approach is proposed that tries to find the middle way between complex distributed and simple lumped modelling approaches. Here we try to find the right level of simplification while avoiding over-simplification. Paraphrasing Einstein, the maxim is: make a model as simple as possible, but not simpler than that. The approach presented is process based, but not physically based in the traditional sense. Instead, it is based on a conceptual representation of the dominant physical processes in certain key elements of the landscape. The essence of the approach is that the model structure is made dependent on a limited number of landscape classes in which the topography is the main driver, but which can include geological, geomorphological or land-use classification. These classes are then represented by lumped conceptual models that act in parallel. The advantage of this approach over a fully distributed conceptualisation is that it retains maximum simplicity while taking into account observable landscape characteristics.

  18. Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    1995-01-01

    This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

  19. Covariance Models for Hydrological Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2014-05-01

    This methodological contribution aims to present some new covariance models with applications in the stochastic analysis of hydrological processes. More specifically, we present explicit expressions for radially symmetric, non-differentiable, Spartan covariance functions in one, two, and three dimensions. The Spartan covariance parameters include a characteristic length, an amplitude coefficient, and a rigidity coefficient which determines the shape of the covariance function. Different expressions are obtained depending on the value of the rigidity coefficient and the dimensionality. If the value of the rigidity coefficient is much larger than one, the Spartan covariance function exhibits multiscaling. Spartan covariance models are more flexible than the classical geostatatistical models (e.g., spherical, exponential). Their non-differentiability makes them suitable for modelling the properties of geological media. We also present a family of radially symmetric, infinitely differentiable Bessel-Lommel covariance functions which are valid in any dimension. These models involve combinations of Bessel and Lommel functions. They provide a generalization of the J-Bessel covariance function, and they can be used to model smooth processes with an oscillatory decay of correlations. We discuss the dependence of the integral range of the Spartan and Bessel-Lommel covariance functions on the parameters. We point out that the dependence is not uniquely specified by the characteristic length, unlike the classical geostatistical models. Finally, we define and discuss the use of the generalized spectrum for characterizing different correlation length scales; the spectrum is defined in terms of an exponent α. We show that the spectrum values obtained for exponent values less than one can be used to discriminate between mean-square continuous but non-differentiable random fields. References [1] D. T. Hristopulos and S. Elogne, 2007. Analytic properties and covariance functions of

  20. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

    1994-01-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

  1. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, S. ); Roads, J.O. ); Glatzmaier, G. )

    1994-08-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included. A 3-year GCM simulation with this more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow, hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere. 52 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs.

  2. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

    1994-01-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

  3. A Conceptual Data Model of Datum Systems

    PubMed Central

    McCaleb, Michael R.

    1999-01-01

    A new conceptual data model that addresses the geometric dimensioning and tolerancing concepts of datum systems, datums, datum features, datum targets, and the relationships among these concepts, is presented. Additionally, a portion of a related data model, Part 47 of STEP (ISO 10303-47), is reviewed and a comparison is made between it and the new conceptual data model.

  4. Assessing hydrologic model nonlinearity using response surface plots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuczera, George

    1990-10-01

    When a conceptual hydrologic model is calibrated to observed data, a posterior distribution summarizing uncertainty about model parameters can be derived. For models with more than two parameters, this distribution can be very awkward to work with. However, when a model is approximately linear over the region of parameter space with appreciable posterior density, the posterior distribution can be approximated by a multivariate normal distribution which provides a powerful tool for studying parameter uncertainty, testing hypotheses, and determining the reliability of model predictions. Model nonlinearity can be assessed using numerical measures such as those developed by Beale, and Bates and Watts. Complementing these measures are response surface plots. This study considers problems encountered when interpreting response surface plots for models with more than two parameters. It is argued that linearized conditional probability regions should be displayed on response surface plots to highlight the region of likely parameter values. Where significant parameter interaction exists, it is possible that only a small fraction of the response surface will display probable model parameter values. In such cases, generating the response surface in principal component planes is computationally more efficient. Two case studies using four-parameter conceptual hydrologic models illustrate these points and also demonstrate some of the pitfalls in relying solely on Beale's measure to assess model nonlinearity.

  5. Landsat imagery for hydrologic modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, R. S.; Shubinski, R. P.; George, T. S.

    1980-01-01

    The cost and effectiveness of developing land cover information derived from Landsat imagery for hydrologic studies are compared with the cost and effectiveness of conventional sources. The analysis shows that the conventional and Landsat methods are nearly equally effective in providing adequate land cover data for hydrologic studies. The total cost effectiveness analysis demonstrates that the conventional method is cost effective for a study area of less than 26 sq km and that the Landsat method is to be preferred for areas of more than 26 sq km.

  6. A conceptual precipitation-runoff modeling suite: Model selection, calibration and predictive uncertainty assessment

    Treesearch

    Tyler Jon Smith

    2008-01-01

    In Montana and much of the Rocky Mountain West, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack. Despite the heightened importance of snowpack, few studies have considered the representation of uncertainty in coupled snowmelt/hydrologic conceptual models. Uncertainty estimation provides a direct interpretation of...

  7. Conceptual and logical level of database modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunka, Frantisek; Matula, Jiri

    2016-06-01

    Conceptual and logical levels form the top most levels of database modeling. Usually, ORM (Object Role Modeling) and ER diagrams are utilized to capture the corresponding schema. The final aim of business process modeling is to store its results in the form of database solution. For this reason, value oriented business process modeling which utilizes ER diagram to express the modeling entities and relationships between them are used. However, ER diagrams form the logical level of database schema. To extend possibilities of different business process modeling methodologies, the conceptual level of database modeling is needed. The paper deals with the REA value modeling approach to business process modeling using ER-diagrams, and derives conceptual model utilizing ORM modeling approach. Conceptual model extends possibilities for value modeling to other business modeling approaches.

  8. A generalised approach for identifying influential data in hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; Renard, Benjamin; McInerney, David

    2017-04-01

    generalised Cook's distance to the computationally demanding case-deletion influence metric (used as a baseline measure of the performance of each influence diagnostic). We consider three case studies: (1) a series of synthetic regression models with varying nonlinear model response and heteroscedasticity in residual error; 2) a conceptual hydrological model (GR4J), and 3) a rating curve incorporating discharge uncertainty and Bayesian parameter priors. The generalisation of the regression based Cook's distance allows for computationally cheap influence analysis across the vast majority of hydrological model structures and objective functions. The inclusion of highly influential data in model calibration can have a substantial impact on the predicted maximum and mean flows. Due to the large amount of insight that influence diagnostics provide combined with their computationally cheap nature we recommend that influence analysis is undertaken by hydrological practitioners as a step towards more robust model calibration.

  9. Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Clark, Martyn; Arheimer, Berit; Hay, Lauren E.; McMillan, Hilary; Kiang, Julie E.; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti; Bock, Andrew; Wagener, Thorsten; Farmer, William H.; Andréassian, Vazken; Attinger, Sabine; Viglione, Alberto; Knight, Rodney; Markstrom, Steven; Over, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

  10. Inter-comparison of subglacial hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Fleurian, Basile; Werder, Mauro

    2016-04-01

    The recent emergence of a number of subglacial hydrological models allows us to obtain theoretical insights on basal processes; for instance on the coupling between water pressure and the sliding of glaciers. In ice-flow models, it is relatively clear what the simulated physics ought to be. Conversely, the physical processes incorporated into subglacial hydrology models are diverse as it is yet unclear which ones are of relevance for a particular setting. An inter-comparison of hydrology models will therefore need a somewhat different approach to the one used in the many ice-flow model inter-comparisons (EISMINT, ISMIP, etc.). Here, we present a set of experiments that will allow the comparison of the behavior of different hydrology models. The design of the benchmark aims at allowing the participation of a wide range of models based on different physical approaches. We aim at evaluating the models with a focus on the effective pressure which has the most impact on the dynamics of glaciers. The aim of this inter-comparison is to provide modellers with the necessary data to make an informed decision on which subglacial hydrology model to use for a particular study.

  11. Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Clark, Martyn; Arheimer, Berit; Hay, Lauren E.; McMillan, Hilary; Kiang, Julie E.; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti; Bock, Andrew R.; Wagener, Thorsten; Farmer, William H.; Andreassian, Vazken; Attinger, Sabine; Viglione, Alberto; Knight, Rodney; Markstrom, Steven; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

  12. A Multivariate Model of Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Heddy, Benjamin; Bailey, MarLynn; Farley, John

    2016-01-01

    The present study used the Cognitive Reconstruction of Knowledge Model (CRKM) model of conceptual change as a framework for developing and testing how key cognitive, motivational, and emotional variables are linked to conceptual change in physics. This study extends an earlier study developed by Taasoobshirazi and Sinatra ("J Res Sci…

  13. Flexible modeling frameworks to replace small ensembles of hydrological models and move toward large ensembles?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Clark, Martyn P.; Mizukami, Naoki

    2017-04-01

    Climate change impacts on hydrological processes are typically assessed using small ensembles of hydrological models. That is, a handful of hydrological models are typically driven by a larger number of climate models. Such a setup has several limitations. Because the number of hydrological models is small, only a small proportion of the model space is sampled, likely leading to an underestimation of the uncertainties in the projections. Further, sampling is arbitrary: although hydrological models should be selected to provide a representative sample of existing models (in terms of complexity and governing hypotheses), they are instead usually selected based on legacy reasons. Furthermore, running several hydrological models currently constitutes a practical challenge because each model must be setup and calibrated individually. Finally, and probably most importantly, the differences between the projected impacts cannot be directly related to differences between hydrological models, because the models are different in almost every possible aspect. We are hence in a situation in which different hydrological models deliver different projections, but for reasons that are mostly unclear, and in which the uncertainty in the projections is probably underestimated. To overcome these limitations, we are experimenting with the flexible modeling framework FUSE (Framework for Understanding Model Errors). FUSE enables to construct conceptual models piece by piece (in a "pick and mix" approach), so it can be used to generate a large number of models that mimic existing models and/or models that differ from other models in single targeted respect (e.g. how baseflow is generated). FUSE hence allows for controlled modeling experiments, and for a more systematic and exhaustive sampling of the model space. Here we explore climate change impacts over the contiguous USA on a 12km grid using two groups of three models: the first group involves the commonly used models VIC, PRMS and HEC

  14. Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M. J. P.

    2012-09-01

    Computer models, especially conceptual models, are frequently used for catchment hydrology studies. Teaching hydrological modeling, however, is challenging, since students have to both understand general model concepts and be able to use particular computer programs when learning to apply computer models. Here we present a new version of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning) model. This software provides a user-friendly version that is especially useful for education. Different functionalities, such as an automatic calibration using a genetic algorithm or a Monte Carlo approach, as well as the possibility to perform batch runs with predefined model parameters make the software interesting especially for teaching in more advanced classes and research projects. Different teaching goals related to hydrological modeling are discussed and a series of exercises is suggested to reach these goals.

  15. Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M. J. P.

    2012-05-01

    Computer models, and especially conceptual models, are frequently used for catchment hydrology studies. Teaching hydrological modeling, however, is challenging as students, when learning to apply computer models, have both to understand general model concepts and to be able to use particular computer programs. Here we present a new version of the HBV model. This software provides a user-friendly version which is especially useful for education. Different functionalities like an automatic calibration using a genetic algorithm or a Monte Carlo approach as well as the possibility to perform batch runs with predefined model parameters make the software also interesting for teaching in more advanced classes and research projects. Different teaching goals related to hydrological modeling are discussed and a series of exercises is suggested to reach these goals.

  16. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  17. Incorporating agricultural land cover in conceptual rainfall runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi) distributed conceptual rainfall runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using these spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. This study tests whether the incorporation of an additional agricultural HRU in a conceptual hydrological model can better reflect the spatial differences in runoff generation and therefore improve the simulation of the wetting phase in autumn. The study area is the meso-scale Ourthe catchment in Belgium. A previous study in this area showed that spatial patterns in runoff generation were already better represented by incorporation of a wetland and a hillslope HRU, compared to a lumped model structure. The influences which are considered by including an agriculture HRU are increased drainage speed due to roads, plough pans and increased infiltration excess overland flow (drainage pipes area only limited present), and variable vegetation patterns due to sowing and harvesting. In addition, the vegetation is not modelled as a static resistance towards evaporation, but the Jarvis stress functions are used to increase the realism of the modelled transpiration; in land-surface models the Jarvis stress functions are already often used for modelling transpiration. The results show that an agricultural conceptualisation in addition to wetland and hillslope conceptualisations leads to small improvements in the modelled discharge. However, the influence is larger on the representation of spatial patterns and the modelled contributions of different HRUs to the total discharge.

  18. Comparative analysis of conceptual models with error correction, artificial neural networks and committee models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corzo P, Gerald A.; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In operational flow forecasting conceptual or process-based hydrological models are typically used, and more and more in combination with precipitation forecasts complemented by corrected data assimilation or data-driven error corrector models. Alternatively, predictive data-driven models, alone or in ensembles, have been employed in different researches, claiming that they ensure high accuracy of flow forecasting; for this, an artificial neural network (ANN) seems to be the most developed in studies. In this paper a comparative analysis of different error correctors and ANN models is made to contribute on the selection of operational. For this we explore the performance of various model combinations forecasting single and multiple time steps. The HBV hydrological model with and without error correction, data-driven models (ANNs) and hybrid committee models integrating conceptual models and ANNs. The capabilities of a model at a single time step (simulation) as well as multiple forecast horizons are represented in comparative graphs. Limitations of the meteorological forecasts are not contemplated in the hydrological forecast scenarios, so precipitation hindcast information was used as input in all models. Single time step forecast simulation of the HBV has 30 percent higher error than a one day forecast ANN model. However, for forecast horizons higher than 3 days a high variability of models' accuracy is found, and the clear dominant performance of the HBV hydrological model with an ANN error corrector is observed. In the forecasts for up to two days the committee and error-corrected models were the best, followed by ANN, and the conceptual model without error correction. The conceptual HBV model alone shows to perform best on long term sequential or iterative forecasts.

  19. Conceptual model of the Klamath Falls, Oregon geothermal area

    SciTech Connect

    Prucha, R.H.; Benson, S.M.; Witherspoon, P.A.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last 50 years significant amounts of data have been obtained from the Klamath Falls geothermal resource. To date, the complexity of the system has stymied researchers, leading to the development of only very generalized hydrogeologic and geothermal models of the area. Recently, the large quantity of available temperature data have been re-evaluated, revealing new information on subsurface heat flow and locations of faults in the system. These inferences are supported by borehole, geochemical, geophysical, and hydrologic data. Based on re-evaluation of all available data, a detailed conceptual model for the Klamath Falls geothermal resource is proposed.

  20. Conceptual Model of the Klamath Falls, Oregon Geothermal Area

    SciTech Connect

    Prucha, R.H.; Benson, S.M.; Witherspoon, P.A.

    1987-01-20

    Over the last 50 years significant amounts of data have been obtained from the Klamath Falls geothermal resource. To date, the complexity of the system has stymied researchers, leading to the development of only very generalized hydrogeologic and geothermal models of the area. Recently, the large quantity of available temperature data have been re-evaluated, revealing new information on subsurface heat flow and locations of faults in the system. These inferences are supported by borehole, geochemical, geophysical, and hydrologic data. Based on re-evaluation of all available data, a detailed conceptual model for the Klamath Falls geothermal resource is proposed. 1 tab., 8 figs., 21 refs.

  1. Hydrologic modeling in dynamic catchments: A data assimilation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pathiraja, S.; Marshall, L.; Sharma, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2016-05-01

    The transferability of conceptual hydrologic models in time is often limited by both their structural deficiencies and adopted parameterizations. Adopting a stationary set of model parameters ignores biases introduced by the data used to derive them, as well as any future changes to catchment conditions. Although time invariance of model parameters is one of the hallmarks of a high quality hydrologic model, very few (if any) models can achieve this due to their inherent limitations. It is therefore proposed to consider parameters as potentially time varying quantities, which can evolve according to signals in hydrologic observations. In this paper, we investigate the potential for Data Assimilation (DA) to detect known temporal patterns in model parameters from streamflow observations. It is shown that the success of the DA algorithm is strongly dependent on the method used to generate background (or prior) parameter ensembles (also referred to as the parameter evolution model). A range of traditional parameter evolution techniques are considered and found to be problematic when multiple parameters with complex time variations are estimated simultaneously. Two alternative methods are proposed, the first is a Multilayer approach that uses the EnKF to estimate hyperparameters of the temporal structure, based on apriori knowledge of the form of nonstationarity. The second is a Locally Linear approach that uses local linear estimation and requires no assumptions of the form of parameter nonstationarity. Both are shown to provide superior results in a range of synthetic case studies, when compared to traditional parameter evolution techniques.

  2. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-07-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  3. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2008-11-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  4. Data and model integration for hydrologic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castronova, A. M.; Gichamo, T.; Arrieta, F. J.; Johnson, R.

    2015-12-01

    As research studies grow in size and in scope, the use of component integration frameworks becomes a more common modeling practice. These software systems provide mechanisms for sharing data among disparate computational modules during simulation runtime, to collectively solve a given problem. This functionality is particularly desirable when modeling cross-disciplinary systems such as climate science and watershed hydrology. Many hydrologic models rely on weather parameters, which may be observed in the field or estimated by other models, to drive simulation. While much of this data is readily available, the method by which it is integrated into coupled hydrologic simulations is not a trivial process, especially when dealing with large data stores. This work investigates modes of integration for large datasets within coupled hydrologic models. The approach is demonstrated by incorporating publicly available observation data as well as preprocessed datasets within a coupled modeling framework. We present this work and demonstrate how the methodology can be leveraged to simulate watershed-scale hydrologic systems.

  5. On the Use of Models in Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Marsily, G.

    1994-01-01

    This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

  6. On the Use of Models in Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Marsily, G.

    1994-01-01

    This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

  7. Formulations of transport in catchment-scale conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Vos, Lotte; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2017-04-01

    Standard conceptual hydrological models can rarely accommodate stream tracer dynamics at the catchment scale. They rely on the generation of runoff through the propagation of a pressure wave and do not account for the actual advective movement of particles. Over the last years different model frameworks have been developed to account for this shortcoming. The difference between the frameworks lies in whether they are based on mixing coefficients or storage age selection functions. Both methods have shown their ability to capture the stream chemistry response. It is however not clear how these distinct approaches compare to each other and to reality. The object of this research is to provide clarification in this matter. To achieve this, the hydrological and stream water chemistry response for a set of contrasting research catchments is modelled, using both the mixing coefficient and the storage age selection approach. The results are analysed using the concept of transit times, where information on the fluxes and states in all model components is used to generate distributions that describe the age structure of water. By comparing the distributions generated by both methods and by evaluating the overall model performances, more insight is gained on how mixing occurs at the catchment scale. This contributes to the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments, which is relevant for the development of good water quality models that accurately describe the integrated response of a hydrological system.

  8. Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models

    Treesearch

     R. W. Malone; G. Yagow; C. Baffaut; M.W  Gitau; Z. Qi; Devendra Amatya; P.B.   Parajuli; J.V. Bonta; T.R.  Green

    2015-01-01

     Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) are important and difficult tasks. An exponential...

  9. Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) is an important and difficult task. An exponential increase in literature has been devoted to the use and develo...

  10. Treatments of Precipitation Inputs to Hydrologic Models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hydrological models are used to assess many water resources problems from agricultural use and water quality to engineering issues. The success of these models are dependent on correct parameterization; the most sensitive being the rainfall input time series. These records can come from land-based ...

  11. Committee of machine learning predictors of hydrological models uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In prediction of uncertainty based on machine learning methods, the results of various sampling schemes namely, Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO)[1] used to build a predictive models. These models predict the uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a deterministic output from hydrological model [2]. Inputs to these models are the specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. For each sampling scheme three machine learning methods namely, artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression are applied to predict output uncertainties. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train different machine learning models which leads to several models (21 predictive uncertainty models). There is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison. A solution could be to form a committee of all models and to sue a dynamic averaging scheme to generate the final output [3]. This approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model HBV in the Nzoia catchment in Kenya. [1] N. Kayastha, D. L. Shrestha and D. P. Solomatine. Experiments with several methods of parameter uncertainty estimation in hydrological modeling. Proc. 9th Intern. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Tianjin, China, September 2010. [2] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press

  12. Hydrological Modeling and Repeatability with Brokering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easton, Z. M.; Collick, A.; Srinivasan, R.; Braeckel, A.; Nativi, S.; McAlister, C.; Wright, D. J.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Fuka, D.

    2014-12-01

    Data brokering aims to provide those in the hydrological sciences with access to relevant data to represent physical, biological, and chemical characteristics researchers need to accelerate discovery in their domain. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these models requires many different data sources from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, more suitable data products exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non domain scientist difficult and time consuming. We propose data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering increases the efficiency with which data are collected, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering significantly increases the repeatability of a study.

  13. Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

  14. Validation of a national hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

    2016-10-01

    Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

  15. Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

    Treesearch

    Robert R. Ziemer

    1992-01-01

    It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

  16. HYPROM hydrology surface-runoff prognostic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nickovic, Slobodan; Pejanovic, Goran; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Roskar, Jozef; Vujadinovic, Mirjam

    2010-11-01

    The major objective of this study was to develop a hydrology model (HYPROM) to simulate overland watershed processes based on advanced numerical and parameterization methods. The resulting model, HYPROM, was designed for real-time watershed prediction. The model solves grid point-based shallow water equations with numerical approaches that include an efficient explicit time-differencing scheme for the gravity wave components and a physically based and numerically stable implicit scheme for the friction slope terms. The model dynamics (advection, diffusion, and height gradient force) are explicitly represented, whereas the model physics (e.g., friction slope) are parameterized, i.e., subgrid effects are expressed in terms of the model grid point variables. The fact that the modeling governing equations for momentum and mass are all prognostic makes HYPROM distinct to most other prognostic hydrology systems. The model uses real topography, river routing, and land cover data to represent surface influences. The HYPROM calculations can be executed offline (i.e., independent of a driving atmospheric model) or online as a callable routine of a driving atmospheric model. The model is applicable across a broad range of spatial scales ranging from local to regional and global scales. The model can be set up over different geographic domains and can run efficiently on conventional computer platforms. Finally, the model can be used either for hydrologic forecasts or climate studies if embedded as a component of an atmospheric climate model.

  17. A conceptual model for vision rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Pamela S.; Rizzo, John-Ross; Hreha, Kimberly; Wertheimer, Jeffrey; Kaldenberg, Jennifer; Hironaka, Dawn; Riggs, Richard; Colenbrander, August

    2017-01-01

    Vision impairments are highly prevalent after acquired brain injury (ABI). Conceptual models that focus on constructing intellectual frameworks greatly facilitate comprehension and implementation of practice guidelines in an interprofessional setting. The purpose of this article is to provide a review of the vision literature in ABI, describe a conceptual model for vision rehabilitation, explain its potential clinical inferences, and discuss its translation into rehabilitation across multiple practice settings and disciplines. PMID:27997671

  18. Hydrological modelling in a "big data" era: a proof of concept of hydrological models as web services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; Vitolo, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    Dealing with the massive increase in global data availability of all sorts is increasingly being known as "big data" science. Indeed, largely leveraged by the internet, a new resource of data sets emerges that are so large and heterogeneous that they become awkward to work with. New algorithms, methods and models are needed to filter such data to find trends, test hypotheses, make predictions and quantify uncertainties. As a considerable share of the data relate to environmental processes (e.g., satellite images, distributed sensor networks), this evolution provides exciting challenges for environmental sciences, and hydrology in particular. Web-enabled models are a promising approach to process large and distributed data sets, and to provide tailored products for a variety of end-users. It will also allow hydrological models to be used as building blocks in larger earth system simulation systems. However, in order to do so we need to reconsider the ways that hydrological models are built, results are made available, and uncertainties are quantified. We present the results of an experimental proof of concept of a hydrological modelling web-service to process heterogeneous hydrological data sets. The hydrological model itself consists of a set of conceptual model routines implemented with on a common platform. This framework is linked to global and local data sets through web standards provided by the Open Geospatial Consortium, as well as to a web interface that enables an end-user to request stream flow simulations from a self-defined location. In essence, the proof-of-concept can be seen as an implementation of the "Models of Everywhere" concept introduced by Beven in 2007. Although the setup is operational and effectively simulates stream flow, we identify several bottlenecks for optimal hydrological simulation in a web-context. The major challenges we identify are related to (1) model selection; (2) uncertainty quantification, and (3) user interaction and

  19. Revising Hydrology of a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Vine, Nataliya; Butler, Adrian; McIntyre, Neil; Jackson, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    Land Surface Models (LSMs) are key elements in guiding adaptation to the changing water cycle and the starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. However, before this potential is realised, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. An important limitation is the simplistic or non-existent representation of the deep subsurface in LSMs; and another is the lack of connection of LSM parameterisations to relevant hydrological information. In this context, the paper uses a case study of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to the Kennet region in Southern England. The paper explores the assumptions behind JULES hydrology, adapts the model structure and optimises the coupling with the ZOOMQ3D regional groundwater model. The analysis illustrates how three types of information can be used to improve the model's hydrology: a) observations, b) regionalized information, and c) information from an independent physics-based model. It is found that: 1) coupling to the groundwater model allows realistic simulation of streamflows; 2) a simple dynamic lower boundary improves upon JULES' stationary unit gradient condition; 3) a 1D vertical flow in the unsaturated zone is sufficient; however there is benefit in introducing a simple dual soil moisture retention curve; 4) regionalized information can be used to describe soil spatial heterogeneity. It is concluded that relatively simple refinements to the hydrology of JULES and its parameterisation method can provide a substantial step forward in realising its potential as a high-resolution multi-purpose model.

  20. An Empirical Study of Enterprise Conceptual Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anaby-Tavor, Ateret; Amid, David; Fisher, Amit; Ossher, Harold; Bellamy, Rachel; Callery, Matthew; Desmond, Michael; Krasikov, Sophia; Roth, Tova; Simmonds, Ian; de Vries, Jacqueline

    Business analysts, business architects, and solution consultants use a variety of practices and methods in their quest to understand business. The resulting work products could end up being transitioned into the formal world of software requirement definitions or as recommendations for all kinds of business activities. We describe an empirical study about the nature of these methods, diagrams, and home-grown conceptual models as reflected in real practice at IBM. We identify the models as artifacts of "enterprise conceptual modeling". We study important features of these models, suggest practical classifications, and discuss their usage. Our survey shows that the "enterprise conceptual modeling" arena presents a variety of descriptive models, each used by a relatively small group of colleagues. Together they form a "long tail" that extends from "drawings" on one end to "standards" on the other.

  1. Where and why do models fail? Perspectives from Oregon Hydrologic Landscape classification

    EPA Science Inventory

    A complete understanding of why rainfall-runoff models provide good streamflow predictions at catchments in some regions, but fail to do so in other regions, has still not been achieved. Here, we argue that a hydrologic classification system is a robust conceptual tool that is w...

  2. Where and why do models fail? Perspectives from Oregon Hydrologic Landscape classification

    EPA Science Inventory

    A complete understanding of why rainfall-runoff models provide good streamflow predictions at catchments in some regions, but fail to do so in other regions, has still not been achieved. Here, we argue that a hydrologic classification system is a robust conceptual tool that is w...

  3. Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument - Unifying Dutch hydrological modeling expertise for national policy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delsman, J.; Kukuric, N.; Veldhuizen, A.; Tiktak, A.; Kroon, T.

    2009-04-01

    Dutch hydrological institutes Alterra, Deltares, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and RWS Waterdienst have cooperated to build a new national hydrological model. The instrument will be used by all three ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW) and the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP). Optionally a national surface water module (MOZART-DM) can be added, in which surface water distribution, discharge and supply are accounted for. The data for the instrument is derived from several national databases, including the subsoil, groundwater abstractions, topsoil, land use, drainage, water distribution, water management and meteorological data. The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument will be the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. This framework will assist in national policy making. Our ambition is to also make the instrument suitable on a regional and local water board scale. Therefore, for the future refinement of the model, local knowledge of hydrological system needs to be implemented in cooperation with the water boards. The development of the new Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument is a quality boost for national water management, thanks to a unique cooperation of all major research institutes and policy makers. It constitutes an essential instrument in implementing the right policy in a changing climate.

  4. Snowmelt and runoff modelling of an Arctic hydrological basin in west Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bøggild, C. E.; Knudby, C. J.; Knudsen, M. B.; Starzer, W.

    1999-09-01

    This paper compares the performance of a conceptual modelling system and several physically-based models for predicting runoff in a large hydrological basin, Tasersuaq, in west Greenland. This basin, which is typical of many Greenland basins, is interesting because of the fast hydrological response to changing conditions. Due to the predominance of exposed bedrock surface and only minor occurrence of sediments and organic soils, there is little restraint to run-off, making the treatment of the snowmelt component of primary importance.Presently a conceptual modelling system, HBV, is applied in Greenland and also in most of the arctic regions of Scandinavia for operational forecasting. A general wish to use hydrological models for other purposes, such as to improve data collection and to gain insight into the hydrological processes has promoted interest in the more physically-based hydrological models. In this paper, two degree-day models, the Danish version of the physically-based SHE distributed hydrological modelling system (MIKE SHE) and the conceptual HBV model are compared with a new model that links MIKE SHE and a distributed energy balance model developed for this study, APUT.The HBV model performs the best overall simulation of discharge, which presently makes it most suited for general forecasting. The combination of MIKE SHE and APUT i.e. a physically based modelling system shows promising results by improving the timing of the initiation of spring flood, but does not perform as well throughout the remaining part of the snowmelt season. The modelling study shows that local parameters such as the snow depletion curve, the temporal snow albedo and perhaps also melt water storage need to be more precisely determined from field studies before physically-based modelling can be improved.

  5. Scale Dependence Between Hydrologic and Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morehead, M. D.; Marks, D.; Winstral, A.

    2003-12-01

    A disparity tends to exist between the scales simulated by atmospheric models intended as input for hydrologic modeling and those at which hydrologic modelers simulate processes especially snow accumulation and depletion in mountainous terrain. Two different models are used to generate input atmospheric data at various scales to drive a snow hydrology model and test the sensitivity of the snow processes at various forcing scales. One of the input atmospheric models is the nested grid atmospheric model, RAMS, developed at Colorado State University. The second input model uses IPW (Image Processing Workbench) to distribute measured climatic variables over complex landscapes. The snow energy balance model is the grid based ISNOBAL. The simulations are performed in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains of South-Western Idaho. RCEW is well instrumented with distributed rain gauges, meteorological sites, snow pillows, and discharge weirs. A Rain-on-Snow flooding event is used for the simulations which occurred during the end of December 1996 and the beginning of January 1997. The analysis is showing that atmospheric grids on the order of tens of kilometers miss much of the detailed atmospheric dynamics controlling snowfall in the complex terrain of the Owyhee Mountains and lead to incorrect hydrologic results if simplistic downscaling techniques are used. The detailed variability in the precipitation gauges is on the order of a kilometer or less and the snow pack variability is on even smaller scales. It is hypothesized that atmospheric forcing need to be modeled down to scales on the order of 1 kilometer and then redistributed by wind effects to accurately depict the complex conditions in mountainous terrain.

  6. Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan A.

    2015-05-01

    The simulated outcome of a calibrated hydrologic model should be hydrologically consistent with the measured response data. Hydrologic modelers typically calibrate models to optimize residual-based goodness-of-fit measures, e.g., the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure, and then evaluate the obtained results with respect to hydrological signatures, e.g., the flow duration curve indices. The literature indicates that the consideration of a large number of hydrologic signatures has not been addressed in a full multiobjective optimization context. This research develops a model calibration methodology to achieve hydrological consistency using goodness-of-fit measures, many hydrological signatures, as well as a level of acceptability for each signature. The proposed framework relies on a scoring method that transforms any hydrological signature to a calibration objective. These scores are used to develop the hydrological consistency metric, which is maximized to obtain hydrologically consistent parameter sets during calibration. This consistency metric is implemented in different signature-based calibration formulations that adapt the sampling according to hydrologic signature values. These formulations are compared with the traditional formulations found in the literature for seven case studies. The results reveal that Pareto dominance-based multiobjective optimization yields the highest level of consistency among all formulations. Furthermore, it is found that the choice of optimization algorithms does not affect the findings of this research.

  7. On science versus engineering in hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke

    2017-04-01

    It is always stressed that hydrological modelling is very important, to prevent floods, to mitigate droughts, to ensure food production or nature conservation. All very true, but I believe that focussing so much on the application of our knowledge (which I call `the engineering approach'), does not stimulate thorough system understanding (which I call `the scientific approach'). In many studies, science and engineering approaches are mixed, which results in large uncertainty e.g. due to a lack of system understanding. To what extent engineering and science approached are mixed depends on the Philosophy of Science of the researcher; verificationism seems to be closer related to engineering, than falsificationism or Bayesianism. In order to grow our scientific knowledge, which means increasing our understanding of the system, we need to be more critical towards the models that we use, but also recognize all the processes that influence the hydrological cycle. In an era called 'The Anthropocene' the influence of humans on the water system can no longer be neglected, and if we choose a scientific approach we have to account for human-induced processes. Summarizing, I believe that we have to account for human impact on the hydrological system, but we have to resist the temptation to directly quantify the hydrological impact on the human system.

  8. Improving the theoretical underpinnings of process-based hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Martyn P.; Schaefli, Bettina; Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; Samaniego, Luis; Luce, Charles H.; Jackson, Bethanna M.; Freer, Jim E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Moore, R. Dan; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Ceola, Serena

    2016-03-01

    In this Commentary, we argue that it is possible to improve the physical realism of hydrologic models by making better use of existing hydrologic theory. We address the following questions: (1) what are some key elements of current hydrologic theory; (2) how can those elements best be incorporated where they may be missing in current models; and (3) how can we evaluate competing hydrologic theories across scales and locations? We propose that hydrologic science would benefit from a model-based community synthesis effort to reframe, integrate, and evaluate different explanations of hydrologic behavior, and provide a controlled avenue to find where understanding falls short.

  9. Review of GIS Applications in Hydrologic Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-05-01

    valves, and can greatly improve the ability of the GIS and hydrologic model in prediction of flow paths in an urban setting. 5 Brooner et al. (1987...expands on the concept and applies the cellular automata computational concept to predefine drainage paths. The iterative technique is based on...or distributed modeling . Djokic and Maidment (1991) use a TIN system to describe urban drainage in terms of tube networks. The overland flows are

  10. Improving subsurface hydrology in Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volk, J. M.; Clark, M. P.; Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.; Tyler, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic processes that govern storage and transport of soil water and groundwater can have strong dynamic relationships with biogeochemical and atmospheric processes. This understanding has lead to a push to improve subsurface hydrologic parametrization in Earth System Models. Here we present results related to improving the implementation of soil moisture distribution, groundwater recharge/discharge, and subsurface drainage in the Community Land Model (CLM) which is the land surface model in the Community Earth System Model. First we identified geo-climatically different locations around the world to develop test cases. For each case we compare the vertical soil moisture distribution from the different implementations of 1D Richards equation, considering the boundary conditions, the treatment of the groundwater sink term, the vertical discretization, and the time stepping schemes. Generally, large errors in the hydrologic mass balance within the soil column occur when there is a large vertical gradient in soil moisture or when there is a shallow water table within a soil column. We then test the sensitivity of the algorithmic parameters that control temporal discretization and error tolerance of the adaptive time-stepping scheme to help optimize its computational efficiency. In addition, we vary the spatial discretization of soil layers (i.e. quantity of layers and their thicknesses) to better understand the sensitivity of vertical discretization of soil columns on soil moisture variability in ESMs. We present multivariate and multi-scale evaluation for the different model options and suggest ways to move forward with future model improvements.

  11. OWL references in ORM conceptual modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matula, Jiri; Belunek, Roman; Hunka, Frantisek

    2017-07-01

    Object Role Modelling methodology is the fact-based type of conceptual modelling. The aim of the paper is to emphasize a close connection to OWL documents and its possible mutual cooperation. The definition of entities or domain values is an indispensable part of the conceptual schema design procedure defined by the ORM methodology. Many of these entities are already defined in OWL documents. Therefore, it is not necessary to declare entities again, whereas it is possible to utilize references from OWL documents during modelling of information systems.

  12. Towards Better Coupling of Hydrological Simulation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penton, D.; Stenson, M.; Leighton, B.; Bridgart, R.

    2012-12-01

    Standards for model interoperability and scientific workflow software provide techniques and tools for coupling hydrological simulation models. However, model builders are yet to realize the benefits of these and continue to write ad hoc implementations and scripts. Three case studies demonstrate different approaches to coupling models, the first using tight interfaces (OpenMI), the second using a scientific workflow system (Trident) and the third using a tailored execution engine (Delft Flood Early Warning System - Delft-FEWS). No approach was objectively better than any other approach. The foremost standard for coupling hydrological models is the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI), which defines interfaces for models to interact. An implementation of the OpenMI standard involves defining interchange terms and writing a .NET/Java wrapper around the model. An execution wrapper such as OatC.GUI or Pipistrelle executes the models. The team built two OpenMI implementations for eWater Source river system models. Once built, it was easy to swap river system models. The team encountered technical challenges with versions of the .Net framework (3.5 calling 4.0) and with the performance of the execution wrappers when running daily simulations. By design, the OpenMI interfaces are general, leaving significant decisions around the semantics of the interfaces to the implementer. Increasingly, scientific workflow tools such as Kepler, Taverna and Trident are able to replace custom scripts. These tools aim to improve the provenance and reproducibility of processing tasks. In particular, Taverna and the myExperiment website have had success making many bioinformatics workflows reusable and sharable. The team constructed Trident activities for hydrological software including IQQM, REALM and eWater Source. They built an activity generator for model builders to build activities for particular river systems. The models were linked at a simulation level, without any daily time

  13. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorgan, D.; Bacu, V.; Mihon, D.; Rodila, D.; Abbaspour, K.; Rouholahnejad, E.

    2012-07-01

    The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool), developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  14. A Conceptual Data Model for Flood Based on Cellular Automata Using Moving Object Data Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachmatullah, R. S.; Azizah, F. N.

    2017-01-01

    Flood is considered as the costliest natural disaster in Indonesia due to its frequent occurrences as well as the extensive damage that it causes. Several studies provide different flood prediction models based on various hydrological factors. A lot of these models use grid-to-grid approach, making them suitable to be modelled as cellular automata. This paper presents a conceptual data model for flood based on cellular automata model using spatio-temporal data model, especially the moving object data model, as the modelling approach. The conceptual data model serves as the model of data structures within an environment for flood prediction simulation. We describe two conceptual data models as the alternatives to model the data structures of flood model. We create the data model based on the study to the factors that constitute the flood models. The first conceptual data model alternative focuses on the cell/grid as the main entity type. The changes of the states of the cells are stored as moving integer. The second alternative emphasizes on flood as the main entity type. The changes of the flood area are stored as moving region. Both alternatives introduce some advantages and disadvantages and the choice rely on the purpose of the use of the data model. We present a proposal of the architecture of a flood prediction system using cellular automata as the modelling approach. As the continuation of this work, further design and implementation details must be provided.

  15. Simultaneous calibration of hydrological models in geographical space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bárdossy, András; Huang, Yingchun; Wagener, Thorsten

    2016-07-01

    Hydrological models are usually calibrated for selected catchments individually using specific performance criteria. This procedure assumes that the catchments show individual behavior. As a consequence, the transfer of model parameters to other ungauged catchments is problematic. In this paper, the possibility of transferring part of the model parameters was investigated. Three different conceptual hydrological models were considered. The models were restructured by introducing a new parameter η which exclusively controls water balances. This parameter was considered as individual to each catchment. All other parameters, which mainly control the dynamics of the discharge (dynamical parameters), were considered for spatial transfer. Three hydrological models combined with three different performance measures were used in three different numerical experiments to investigate this transferability. The first numerical experiment, involving individual calibration of the models for 15 selected MOPEX catchments, showed that it is difficult to identify which catchments share common dynamical parameters. Parameters of one catchment might be good for another catchment but not the opposite. In the second numerical experiment, a common spatial calibration strategy was used. It was explicitly assumed that the catchments share common dynamical parameters. This strategy leads to parameters which perform well on all catchments. A leave-one-out common calibration showed that in this case a good parameter transfer to ungauged catchments can be achieved. In the third numerical experiment, the common calibration methodology was applied for 96 catchments. Another set of 96 catchments was used to test the transfer of common dynamical parameters. The results show that even a large number of catchments share similar dynamical parameters. The performance is worse than those obtained by individual calibration, but the transfer to ungauged catchments remains possible. The performance of the

  16. How good is good in hydrological modeling?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; van Meerveld, I. H. J.

    2016-12-01

    Models are never perfect and hydrological models are no exception. Even with the most sophisticated hydrological models, runoff simulations never fully agree. This is at least partly because of uncertainties in the observed input and output data. On the other hand, even a poor model can often provide fair simulations simply because the forcing data (precipitation, temperature, …) do not allow the model to go completely wrong. Commonly used measures to assess model performance, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, do not allow direct judgment of model performance in terms of what can be achieved with a certain dataset, and different guidelines are given in the literature on what values indicate a good model performance. This is not satisfactory, especially when it comes to assessing the performances of uncalibrated models. We, therefore, suggest the use of an upper and a lower benchmark to better assess model performance. The upper benchmark is a measure of what can be achieved and can be quantified by the performance of a calibrated simple model. The lower benchmark is a measure of what can be expected and can be quantified by an ensemble mean of an uncalibrated simple model where random parameter sets or parameter sets from other catchments are used. In this contribution, we focus on this lower benchmark. Preliminary results using the HBV model, a simple, bucket-type model, indicated surprisingly good model performance of the ensemble means, even when individual parameterisations resulted in very poor fits. To test this further, we applied the HBV model using data from 600 catchments in the USA. The model was calibrated for each catchment and different ensembles where used to compute ensemble mean time series based on: 1) random parameter values, 2) parameter sets from all 600 catchments (minus the one in question), 3) parameter sets from all catchments in the respective hydrological region as defined by the USGS, and 4) parameter sets from the x nearest

  17. Monthly Water Balance Model Hydrology Futures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Andy; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1950 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.5066/F7542KMD). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized for hydrologic response units and aggregated at points of interest on a stream network. Results were then organized into the Monthly Water Balance Hydrology Futures database, an open-access database using netCDF format (http://cida-eros-mows1.er.usgs.gov/thredds/dodsC/nwb_pub/).  Methods used to calibrate and parameterize the MWBM are detailed in the Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)  paper "Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States" by Bock and others (2016).  See the discussion paper link in the "Related External Resources" section for access.  Supplemental data files related to the plots and data analysis in Bock and others (2016) can be found in the HESS-2015-325.zip folder in the "Attached Files" section.  Detailed information on the files and data can be found in the ReadMe.txt contained within the zipped folder. Recommended citation of discussion paper:Bock, A.R., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Markstrom, S.L., and Atkinson, R.D., 2016, Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, 2861-2876, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2861-2016, 2016

  18. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  19. Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

  20. Use of Numerical Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Uncertainty in Conceptual Models of Recharge and Hydrostratigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Pohlmann, Karl; Ye, Ming; Pohll, Greg; Chapman, Jenny

    2007-01-19

    Numerical groundwater models are based on conceptualizations of hydrogeologic systems that are by necessity developed from limited information and therefore are simplifications of real conditions. Each aspect (e.g. recharge, hydrostratigraphy, boundary conditions) of the groundwater model is often based on a single conceptual model that is considered to be the best representation given the available data. However, the very nature of their construction means that each conceptual model is inherently uncertain and the available information may be insufficient to refute plausible alternatives, thereby raising the possibility that the flow model is underestimating overall uncertainty. In this study we use the Death Valley Regional Flow System model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as a framework to predict regional groundwater flow southward into Yucca Flat on the Nevada Test Site. An important aspect of our work is to evaluate the uncertainty associated with multiple conceptual models of groundwater recharge and subsurface hydrostratigraphy and quantify the impacts of this uncertainty on model predictions. In our study, conceptual model uncertainty arises from two sources: (1) alternative interpretations of the hydrostratigraphy in the northern portion of Yucca Flat where, owing to sparse data, the hydrogeologic system can be conceptualized in different ways, and (2) uncertainty in groundwater recharge in the region as evidenced by the existence of several independent approaches for estimating this aspect of the hydrologic system. The composite prediction of groundwater flow is derived from the regional model that formally incorporates the uncertainty in these alternative input models using the maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging method. An assessment of the joint predictive uncertainty of the input conceptual models is also produced. During this process, predictions of the alternative models are weighted by model probability, which is the degree of

  1. Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM) to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling–spilling–merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that

  2. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  3. Spatial resolution considerations for urban hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krebs, G.; Kokkonen, T.; Valtanen, M.; Setälä, H.; Koivusalo, H.

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological model simulations can be applied to evaluate the performance of low impact development (LID) tools in urban areas. However, the assessment for large-scale urban areas remains a challenge due to the required high spatial resolution and limited availability of field measurements for model calibration. This study proposes a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model (SWMM) with sufficiently high spatial resolution and direct accessibility of model parameters for LID performance simulation applicable to a large-scale ungauged urban area. Based on calibrated high-resolution models for three small-scale study catchments (6-12 ha), we evaluated how constraints implied by large-scale urban modelling, such as data limitations, affect the model results. The high-resolution surface representation, resulting in subcatchments of uniform surface types, reduced the number of calibration parameters. Calibration conducted independently for all catchments yielded similar parameter values for same surface types in each study catchment. These results suggest the applicability of the parameter values calibrated for high resolution models to be regionalized to larger, ungauged urban areas. The accessibility of surface specific model parameters for LID simulation is then also retained. Conducted perturbations in spatial resolution through sewer network truncation showed that while the runoff volume was mostly unaffected by resolution perturbations, lower resolutions resulted in over-simulation of peak flows due to excessively rapid catchment response to storm events. Our results suggest that a hydrological model where parameter values are adopted from high-resolution models and that is developed based on a minimum conduit diameter of 300 mm provides good simulation performance and is applicable to large-scale urban areas with reasonable effort.

  4. Development of a coupled pathogen-hydrologic catchment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haydon, S.; Deletic, A.

    2006-09-01

    SummaryLarge numbers of pathogens can be mobilised from drinking water catchments during wet weather causing serious problems in management of water treatment plants. This paper presents an attempt to model pathogen discharges from large catchments. Two conceptual continuous pathogen models have been developed and evaluated using E. coli as a pathogen indicator. The first model, the EG model, describes surface and subsurface pathogen transport processes by means of wash-off and loss equations. It is coupled to an existing hydrologic model (SimHyd) that predicts flows. The second model, named ASP, takes into account only surface pathogen transport processes. It is coupled to a stormflow-baseflow separation model, and therefore is simpler than EG. The models have been tested against baseflow and storm event E. coli concentrations measured at three dissimilar catchments from southern Australia. The prediction of pathogen peak concentrations by the EG model was reasonably good; the coefficient of correlation between the measured and modelled pathogen peaks for all three catchments was r2 = 0.93. However, the ASP model was not able to model the peaks well ( r2 = 0.54). The prediction of pathogen loads was significantly better with r2 = 0.95 for the EG model and r2 = 0.89 for the ASP model. It was concluded that a slightly more complex EG model was performing better than the oversimplified ASP model.

  5. Identifying Hydrologic Processes in Agricultural Watersheds Using Precipitation-Runoff Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linard, Joshua I.; Wolock, David M.; Webb, Richard M.T.; Wieczorek, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals applied to agricultural fields will assist in designing the most effective strategies to prevent water-quality impairments. At a watershed scale, the processes controlling the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals are generally understood only conceptually. To examine the applicability of conceptual models to the processes actually occurring, two precipitation-runoff models - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) - were applied in different agricultural settings of the contiguous United States. Each model, through different physical processes, simulated the transport of water to a stream from the surface, the unsaturated zone, and the saturated zone. Models were calibrated for watersheds in Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska. The calibrated sets of input parameters for each model at each watershed are discussed, and the criteria used to validate the models are explained. The SWAT and WEBMOD model results at each watershed conformed to each other and to the processes identified in each watershed's conceptual hydrology. In Maryland the conceptual understanding of the hydrology indicated groundwater flow was the largest annual source of streamflow; the simulation results for the validation period confirm this. The dominant source of water to the Indiana watershed was thought to be tile drains. Although tile drains were not explicitly simulated in the SWAT model, a large component of streamflow was received from lateral flow, which could be attributed to tile drains. Being able to explicitly account for tile drains, WEBMOD indicated water from tile drains constituted most of the annual streamflow in the Indiana watershed. The Nebraska models indicated annual streamflow was composed primarily of perennial groundwater flow and infiltration-excess runoff, which conformed to the conceptual hydrology developed for that watershed. The hydrologic

  6. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  7. Testing conceptual and physically based soil hydrology schemes against observations for the Amazon Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.; Boisier, J. P.; Peng, S.; De Weirdt, M.; Verbeeck, H.

    2014-06-01

    This study analyzes the performance of the two soil hydrology schemes of the land surface model ORCHIDEE in estimating Amazonian hydrology and phenology for five major sub-basins (Xingu, Tapajós, Madeira, Solimões and Negro), during the 29-year period 1980-2008. A simple 2-layer scheme with a bucket topped by an evaporative layer is compared to an 11-layer diffusion scheme. The soil schemes are coupled with a river routing module and a process model of plant physiology, phenology and carbon dynamics. The simulated water budget and vegetation functioning components are compared with several data sets at sub-basin scale. The use of the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme does not significantly change the Amazonian water budget simulation when compared to the 2-layer soil scheme (+3.1 and -3.0% in evapotranspiration and river discharge, respectively). However, the higher water-holding capacity of the soil and the physically based representation of runoff and drainage in the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme result in more dynamic soil water storage variation and improved simulation of the total terrestrial water storage when compared to GRACE satellite estimates. The greater soil water storage within the 11-layer scheme also results in increased dry-season evapotranspiration (+0.5 mm d-1, +17%) and improves river discharge simulation in the southeastern sub-basins such as the Xingu. Evapotranspiration over this sub-basin is sustained during the whole dry season with the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme, whereas the 2-layer scheme limits it after only 2 dry months. Lower plant drought stress simulated by the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme leads to better simulation of the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis (GPP) when compared to a GPP data-driven model based on eddy covariance and satellite greenness measurements. A dry-season length between 4 and 7 months over the entire Amazon Basin is found to be critical in distinguishing differences in hydrological feedbacks between the

  8. A Hydrological Modeling Framework for Flood Risk Assessment for Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashouri, H.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Chowdhary, H.; Sen Gupta, A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding has been the most frequent natural disaster that claims lives and imposes significant economic losses to human societies worldwide. Japan, with an annual rainfall of up to approximately 4000 mm is extremely vulnerable to flooding. The focus of this research is to develop a macroscale hydrologic model for simulating flooding toward an improved understanding and assessment of flood risk across Japan. The framework employs a conceptual hydrological model, known as the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), as well as the Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure for simulating streamflow. In addition, a Temperature-Index model is incorporated to account for snowmelt and its contribution to streamflow. For an efficient calibration of the model, in terms of computational timing and convergence of the parameters, a set of A Priori parameters is obtained based on the relationships between the model parameters and the physical properties of watersheds. In this regard, we have implemented a particle tracking algorithm and a statistical model which use high resolution Digital Terrain Models to estimate different time related parameters of the model such as time to peak of the unit hydrograph. In addition, global soil moisture and depth data are used to generate A Priori estimation of maximum soil moisture capacity, an important parameter of the PDM model. Once the model is calibrated, its performance is examined during the Typhoon Nabi which struck Japan in September 2005 and caused severe flooding throughout the country. The model is also validated for the extreme precipitation event in 2012 which affected Kyushu. In both cases, quantitative measures show that simulated streamflow depicts good agreement with gauge-based observations. The model is employed to simulate thousands of possible flood events for the entire Japan which makes a basis for a comprehensive flood risk assessment and loss estimation for the flood insurance industry.

  9. Efficient Calibration of Computationally Intensive Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulin, A.; Huot, P. L.; Audet, C.; Alarie, S.

    2015-12-01

    A new hybrid optimization algorithm for the calibration of computationally-intensive hydrological models is introduced. The calibration of hydrological models is a blackbox optimization problem where the only information available to the optimization algorithm is the objective function value. In the case of distributed hydrological models, the calibration process is often known to be hampered by computational efficiency issues. Running a single simulation may take several minutes and since the optimization process may require thousands of model evaluations, the computational time can easily expand to several hours or days. A blackbox optimization algorithm, which can substantially improve the calibration efficiency, has been developed. It merges both the convergence analysis and robust local refinement from the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm, and the global exploration capabilities from the heuristic strategies used by the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm. The new algorithm is applied to the calibration of the distributed and computationally-intensive HYDROTEL model on three different river basins located in the province of Quebec (Canada). Two calibration problems are considered: (1) calibration of a 10-parameter version of HYDROTEL, and (2) calibration of a 19-parameter version of the same model. A previous study by the authors had shown that the original version of DDS was the most efficient method for the calibration of HYDROTEL, when compared to the MADS and the very well-known SCEUA algorithms. The computational efficiency of the hybrid DDS-MADS method is therefore compared with the efficiency of the DDS algorithm based on a 2000 model evaluations budget. Results show that the hybrid DDS-MADS method can reduce the total number of model evaluations by 70% for the 10-parameter version of HYDROTEL and by 40% for the 19-parameter version without compromising the quality of the final objective function value.

  10. Modelling surface water-groundwater interaction with a conceptual approach: model development and application in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; McMillan, H. K.

    2016-12-01

    As in most countries worldwide, water management in lowland areas is a big concern for New Zealand due to its economic importance for water related human activities. As a result, the estimation of available water resources in these areas (e.g., for irrigation and water supply purpose) is crucial and often requires an understanding of complex hydrological processes, which are often characterized by strong interactions between surface water and groundwater (usually expressed as losing and gaining rivers). These processes are often represented and simulated using integrated physically based hydrological models. However models with physically based groundwater modules typically require large amount of non-readily available geologic and aquifer information and are computationally intensive. Instead, this paper presents a conceptual groundwater model that is fully integrated into New Zealand's national hydrological model TopNet based on TopModel concepts (Beven, 1992). Within this conceptual framework, the integrated model can simulate not only surface processes, but also groundwater processes and surface water-groundwater interaction processes (including groundwater flow, river-groundwater interaction, and groundwater interaction with external watersheds). The developed model was applied to two New Zealand catchments with different hydro-geological and climate characteristics (Pareora catchment in the Canterbury Plains and Grey catchment on the West Coast). Previous studies have documented strong interactions between the river and groundwater, based on the analysis of a large number of concurrent flow measurements and associated information along the river main stem. Application of the integrated hydrological model indicates flow simulation (compared to the original hydrological model conceptualisation) during low flow conditions are significantly improved and further insights on local river dynamics are gained. Due to its conceptual characteristics and low level of

  11. Regionalization Study of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM) in Hydrologically Homogeneous River Basins of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumari, Babita; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghvendra P.

    2017-04-01

    A new semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, namely Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), has been developed under 'PRACRITI-2' program of Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad for sustainable water resources management of India by using data from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. Entire India is divided into 5km x 5km grid cells and properties at the center of the cells are assumed to represent the property of the cells. SHM contains five modules namely surface water, forest, snow, groundwater and routing. Two empirical equations (SCS-CN and Hargreaves) and water balance method have been used in the surface water module; the forest module is based on the calculations of water balancing & dynamics of subsurface. 2-D Boussinesq equation is used for groundwater modelling which is solved using implicit finite-difference. The routing module follows a distributed routing approach which requires flow path and network with the key point of travel time estimation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of SHM using regionalization technique which also checks the usefulness of a model in data scarce condition or for ungauged basins. However, homogeneity analysis is pre-requisite to regionalization. Similarity index (Φ) and hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis are adopted to test the homogeneity in terms of physical attributes of three basins namely Brahmani (39,033 km km^2)), Baitarani (10,982 km km^2)) and Kangsabati (9,660 km km^2)) with respect to Subarnarekha (29,196 km km^2)) basin. The results of both homogeneity analysis show that Brahmani basin is the most homogeneous with respect to Subarnarekha river basin in terms of physical characteristics (land use land cover classes, soiltype and elevation). The calibration and validation of model parameters of Brahmani basin is in progress which are to be transferred into the SHM set up of Subarnarekha basin and results are to be compared with the results of calibrated and validated

  12. Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

  13. Leading Generative Groups: A Conceptual Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Manuel; Sobel-Lojeski, Karen A.; Reilly, Richard R.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a conceptual model of leadership in generative groups. Generative groups have diverse team members who are expected to develop innovative solutions to complex, unstructured problems. The challenge for leaders of generative groups is to balance (a) establishing shared goals with recognizing members' vested interests, (b)…

  14. Multiple Mentor Model: A Conceptual Framework.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burlew, Larry D.

    1991-01-01

    Focuses on developing a conceptual framework for the mentoring process. The model is based on the premise that mentoring is not a single event in the life of a worker but rather several events with several different levels of mentoring. (Author)

  15. Active Conceptual Modeling of Learning Workshop

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-05-01

    Foundations of Conceptual Modeling For Learning from Surprises Stephen W. Liddle, PhD Director, Kevin and Debra Rollins Center for eBusiness ... eBusiness at Brigham Young University and Associate Professor of Information Systems at the Marriott School of Management, where he holds the Grant and

  16. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The past year saw a re-emphasis on the practical aspects of hydrology due to regional drought patterns, urban flooding, and agricultural and energy demands on water resources. Highlights of hydrologic symposia, publications, and events are included. (MA)

  17. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The past year saw a re-emphasis on the practical aspects of hydrology due to regional drought patterns, urban flooding, and agricultural and energy demands on water resources. Highlights of hydrologic symposia, publications, and events are included. (MA)

  18. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Treesearch

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  19. Modeling of surface microtopography and its impacts on hydrologic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habtezion, Noah Lebassi

    Understanding the impacts of surface microtopography on hydrologic processes is critical. The objectives of this thesis research are: (1) to evaluate the effects of DEM resolution on microtopographic characteristics, hydrologic connectivity, and modeling of hydrologic processes; and (2) to assess the influences of multiple rainfall events on surface and subsurface hydrologic processes with the use of a puddle-to-puddle (P2P) modeling system. The change in DEM resolution has a significant effect on how surface microtopography is depicted, which in turn alters the hydrologic response of a topographic surface. The smoothing of reduced DEM resolution tends to enhance hydrologic connectivity, reduce the depression storage and infiltration, and increase surface runoff. Temporal rainfall distribution results in spatio-temporal variations in soil water dynamics, depression storage, infiltration, hydrologic connectivity, and surface runoff. The reduction in ponding time and infiltration, and the enhancement of hydrologic connectivity further caused earlier and greater surface runoff generation.

  20. A conceptual model for megaprogramming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tracz, Will

    1990-01-01

    Megaprogramming is component-based software engineering and life-cycle management. Magaprogramming and its relationship to other research initiatives (common prototyping system/common prototyping language, domain specific software architectures, and software understanding) are analyzed. The desirable attributes of megaprogramming software components are identified and a software development model and resulting prototype megaprogramming system (library interconnection language extended by annotated Ada) are described.

  1. Conceptual Models of Frontal Cyclones.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eagleman, Joe R.

    1981-01-01

    This discussion of weather models uses maps to illustrate the differences among three types of frontal cyclones (long wave, short wave, and troughs). Awareness of these cyclones can provide clues to atmospheric conditions which can lead toward accurate weather forecasting. (AM)

  2. Conceptual Models of Frontal Cyclones.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eagleman, Joe R.

    1981-01-01

    This discussion of weather models uses maps to illustrate the differences among three types of frontal cyclones (long wave, short wave, and troughs). Awareness of these cyclones can provide clues to atmospheric conditions which can lead toward accurate weather forecasting. (AM)

  3. An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    Recent Monte Carlo studies have documented the value of generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to estimate empirical relationships between streamflow statistics and physiographic basin characteristics. This paper presents a number of extensions of the GLS method that deal with realities and complexities of regional hydrologic data sets that were not addressed in the simulation studies. These extensions include: (1) a more realistic model of the underlying model errors; (2) smoothed estimates of cross correlation of flows; (3) procedures for including historical flow data; (4) diagnostic statistics describing leverage and influence for GLS regression; and (5) the formulation of a mathematical program for evaluating future gaging activities. ?? 1989.

  4. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

    2014-12-01

    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  5. Physical models for classroom teaching in hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodhe, A.

    2012-09-01

    Hydrology teaching benefits from the fact that many important processes can be illustrated and explained with simple physical models. A set of mobile physical models has been developed and used during many years of lecturing at basic university level teaching in hydrology. One model, with which many phenomena can be demonstrated, consists of a 1.0-m-long plexiglass container containing an about 0.25-m-deep open sand aquifer through which water is circulated. The model can be used for showing the groundwater table and its influence on the water content in the unsaturated zone and for quantitative determination of hydraulic properties such as the storage coefficient and the saturated hydraulic conductivity. It is also well suited for discussions on the runoff process and the significance of recharge and discharge areas for groundwater. The flow paths of water and contaminant dispersion can be illustrated in tracer experiments using fluorescent or colour dye. This and a few other physical models, with suggested demonstrations and experiments, are described in this article. The finding from using models in classroom teaching is that it creates curiosity among the students, promotes discussions and most likely deepens the understanding of the basic processes.

  6. Modeling the hydrological behavior of a karst spring using a nonlinear reservoir-pipe model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yong; Wu, Jichun; Jiang, Guanghui

    2015-08-01

    Karst aquifers are commonly simulated based on conceptual models. However, most karst conceptual models hardly consider the function of turbulent conduits. The conduit network acts as the main draining passage of the karst aquifer and may also have a strong influence on the hydrological processes, especially during storm events. A conceptual model with a nonlinear reservoir and a turbulent pipe (representing the conduit system) in series is proposed according to the basic structure of a typical karst aquifer, to simulate the karst spring. The model indicates whether the spring discharge is influenced by the turbulent pipe; this not only depends on the parameters of the nonlinear reservoir and turbulent pipe, but also depends on the volume of spring discharge itself. Even though the spring discharge is strongly influenced by the turbulent pipe during the storm, this influence decreases with the rainfall intensity and volume of spring discharge. In addition, an `evapotranspiration store' is used to consider the moisture loss through evapotranspiration and to calculate the effective rainfall on the proposed model. Then, this simple conceptual model is used to simulate a karst spring (named S31) near Guilin city, China, with satisfactory results, especially with respect to discharge peaks and recession curves of the spring under storm conditions. The proposed model is also compared with the Vensim model of similar complexity, which has been applied to the same spring catchment. The comparison shows the superiority and better performance of the nonlinear reservoir-pipe model.

  7. The conceptualization model problem—surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bredehoeft, John

    2005-03-01

    The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

  8. Hybrid Modelling Approach to Prairie hydrology: Fusing Data-driven and Process-based Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, B.; Nazemi, A.; Elshorbagy, A.; Mazurek, K.; Putz, G.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling the hydrological response in prairie regions, characterized by flat and undulating terrain, and thus, large non-contributing areas, is a known challenge. The hydrological response (runoff) is the combination of the traditional runoff from the hydrologically contributing area and the occasional overflow from the non-contributing area. This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of fusing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in a hybrid structure to model the hydrological response in prairie regions. A hybrid SWAT-ANN model is proposed, where the SWAT component and the ANN module deal with the effective (contributing) area and the non-contributing area, respectively. The hybrid model is applied to the case study of Moose Jaw watershed, located in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. As an initial exploration, a comparison between ANN and SWAT models is established based on addressing the daily runoff (streamflow) prediction accuracy using multiple error measures. This is done to identify the merits and drawbacks of each modeling approach. It has been found out that the SWAT model has better performance during the low flow periods but with degraded efficiency during periods of high flows. The case is different for the ANN model as ANNs exhibit improved simulation during high flow periods but with biased estimates during low flow periods. The modelling results show that the new hybrid SWAT-ANN model is capable of exploiting the strengths of both SWAT and ANN models in an integrated framrwork. The new hybrid SWAT-ANN model simulates daily runoff quite satisfactorily with NSE measures of 0.80 and 0.83 during calibration and validation periods, respectively. Furthermore, an experimental assessment was performed to identify the effects of the ANN training method on the performance of the hybrid model as well as the parametric identifiability. Overall, the results obtained in this study suggest that the fusion

  9. Modeling hydrologic and ecologic responses using a new eco-hydrological model for identification of droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio; Jaranilla-Sanchez, Patricia Ann

    2014-07-01

    Drought severely damages water and agricultural resources, and both hydrological and ecological responses are important for its understanding. First, precipitation deficit induces soil moisture deficiency and high plant water stress causing agricultural droughts. Second, hydrological drought characterized by deficit of river discharge and groundwater follows agricultural drought. However, contributions of vegetation dynamics to these processes at basin scale have not been quantified. To address this issue, we develop an eco-hydrological model that can calculate river discharge, groundwater, energy flux, and vegetation dynamics as diagnostic variables at basin scale within a distributed hydrological modeling framework. The model is applied to drought analysis in the Medjerda River basin. From model inputs and outputs, we calculate drought indices for different drought types. The model shows reliable accuracy in reproducing observed river discharge in long-term (19 year) simulation. Moreover, the drought index calculated from the model-estimated annual peak of leaf area index correlates well (correlation coefficient r = 0.89) with the drought index from nationwide annual crop production, which demonstrates that the modeled leaf area index is capable of representing agricultural droughts related to historical food shortages. We show that vegetation dynamics have a more rapid response to meteorological droughts than river discharge and groundwater dynamics in the Medjerda basin because vegetation dynamics are sensitive to soil moisture in surface layers, whereas soil moisture in deeper layers strongly contributes to streamflow and groundwater level. Our modeling framework can contribute to analyze drought progress, although analyses for other climate conditions are needed.

  10. Template for Conceptual Model Construction: Model Review and Corps Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-08-01

    Research and Development Center and Harwell Gentile and Assoc. 2001. Conceptual model for coastal Long Island ecosystems: Fire Island to Montauk Point...Associates. 2001. Conceptual models for coastal Long Island ecosystems: Fire Island to Montauk Point reformulation study. Draft report prepared

  11. A multicomponent coupled model of glacier hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flowers, Gwenn Elizabeth

    Multiple lines of evidence suggest a causal link between subglacial hydrology and phenomena such as fast-flowing ice. This evidence includes a measured correlation between water under alpine glaciers and their motion, the presence of saturated sediment beneath Antaxctic ice streams, and geologic signatures of enhanced paleo-ice flow over deformable substrates. The complexity of the glacier bed as a three-component mixture presents an obstacle to unraveling these conundra. Inadequate representations of hydrology, in part, prevent us from closing the gap between empirical descriptions and a comprehensive consistent framework for understanding the dynamics of glacierized systems. I have developed a distributed numerical model that solves equations governing glacier surface runoff, englacial water transport, subglacial drainage, and subsurface groundwater flow. Ablation and precipitation drive the surface model through a temperature-index parameterization. Water is permitted to flow over and off the glacier, or to the bed through a system of crevasses, pipes, and fractures. A macroporous sediment horizon transports subglacial water to the ice margin or to an underlying aquifer. Governing equations are derived from the law of mass conservation and are expressed as a balance between the internal redistribution of water and external sources. Each of the four model components is represented as a two-dimensional, vertically-integrated layer that communicates with its neighbors through water exchange. Stacked together, these layers approximate a three-dimensional system. I tailor the model to Trapridge Glacier, where digital maps of the surface and bed have been derived from ice-penetrating radar data. Observations of subglacial water pressure provide additional constraints on model parameters and a basis for comparison of simulations with real data. Three classical idealizations of glacier geometry are used for simple model experiments. Equilibrium tests emphasize geometric

  12. Hydrological improvements for nutrient and pollutant emission modeling in large scale catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höllering, S.; Ihringer, J.

    2012-04-01

    An estimation of emissions and loads of nutrients and pollutants into European water bodies with as much accuracy as possible depends largely on the knowledge about the spatially and temporally distributed hydrological runoff patterns. An improved hydrological water balance model for the pollutant emission model MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) (IWG, 2011) has been introduced, that can form an adequate basis to simulate discharge in a hydrologically differentiated, land-use based way to subsequently provide the required distributed discharge components. First of all the hydrological model had to comply both with requirements of space and time in order to calculate sufficiently precise the water balance on the catchment scale spatially distributed in sub-catchments and with a higher temporal resolution. Aiming to reproduce seasonal dynamics and the characteristic hydrological regimes of river catchments a daily (instead of a yearly) time increment was applied allowing for a more process oriented simulation of discharge dynamics, volume and therefore water balance. The enhancement of the hydrological model became also necessary to potentially account for the hydrological functioning of catchments in regard to scenarios of e.g. a changing climate or alterations of land use. As a deterministic, partly physically based, conceptual hydrological watershed and water balance model the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (USGS, 2009) was selected to improve the hydrological input for MoRE. In PRMS the spatial discretization is implemented with sub-catchments and so called hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are the hydrotropic, distributed, finite modeling entities each having a homogeneous runoff reaction due to hydro-meteorological events. Spatial structures and heterogeneities in sub-catchments e.g. urbanity, land use and soil types were identified to derive hydrological similarities and classify in different urban and rural HRUs. In this way the

  13. Improving Hydrology in Land Ice Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Stephen; Flowers, Gwenn; Schoof, Christian

    2011-05-01

    Community Earth System Model Land Ice Working Group Meeting; Boulder, Colorado, 13 January 2011 ; Recent observations indicate that mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets (“land ice”) is increasing. The drivers of these changes are not well understood, and modeling the land ice response to them remains challenging. As a result, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change explicitly avoided speculating on 21st-century sea level rise from ice dynamical processes in its fourth assessment report. The mismatch between observations of land ice change and model skill at mimicking those changes is behind recent efforts to develop next-generation land ice models. Necessary improvements to existing models include improved dynamics, coupling to climate models, and better representations of important boundary conditions and physical processes. Basal sliding, the primary control on the rate of land ice delivery to the oceans, is one such boundary condition that is largely controlled by land ice hydrology.

  14. A simple hydrologic model for rapid prediction of runoff from ungauged coastal catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Yongshan; Konyha, Kenneth

    2015-09-01

    We developed a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model for rapid prediction of runoff generated in the unique hydrological setting with flat terrain, sandy soils, high groundwater table, and a dense drainage canal network in south Florida. The model is conceptualized as rainfall and evapotranspiration filling and emptying the root zone and excess rainfall recharging three storage zones. Outflows from these storage zones, routed with parallel arrangement of three linear reservoirs, represent different flow components of catchment runoff, i.e., slow drainage (shallow subsurface flow), medium drainage (interflow and saturation excess overland flow), and fast drainage (direct runoff from impervious urban areas or from water table management in agricultural land). The model is parsimonious with eight model parameters along with two optional water management parameters. A regionalization study was conducted through model parameterization to achieve target hydrological behavior of typical land uses, which are the most significant basin descriptor affecting catchment hydrology in south Florida. Cross validation with 16 gauged basins dominated by urban, agricultural, and natural lands, respectively, indicated that the model provides an effective tool for rapid prediction of runoff in ungauged basins using the regionalized model parameters. A case study is presented, involving application of the model to support real-time adaptive management to hydrological operations for protection of estuarine ecosystems.

  15. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration at the Watershed Scale in the Pacific Northwest

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of tec...

  16. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration at the Watershed Scale in the Pacific Northwest

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of tec...

  17. Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

    1993-01-01

    The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

  18. Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment: 2. Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pande, Saket

    2013-09-01

    Quantile hydrologic model selection and structure deficiency assessment is applied in three case studies. The performance of quantile model selection problem is rigorously evaluated using a model structure on the French Broad river basin data set. The case study shows that quantile model selection encompasses model selection strategies based on summary statistics and that it is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation under certain likelihood functions. It also shows that quantile model predictions are fairly robust. The second case study is of a parsimonious hydrological model for dry land areas in Western India. The case study shows that an intuitive improvement in the model structure leads to reductions in asymmetric loss function values for all considered quantiles. The asymmetric loss function is a quantile specific metric that is minimized to obtain a quantile specific prediction model. The case study provides evidence that a quantile-wise reduction in the asymmetric loss function is a robust indicator of model structure improvement. Finally a case study of modeling daily streamflow for the Guadalupe River basin is presented. A model structure that is least deficient for the study area is identified from nine different model structures based on quantile structural deficiency assessment. The nine model structures differ in interception, routing, overland flow and base flow conceptualizations. The three case studies suggest that quantile model selection and deficiency assessment provides a robust mechanism to compare deficiencies of different model structures and helps to identify better model structures. In addition to its novelty, quantile hydrologic model selection is a frequentist approach that seeks to complement existing Bayesian approaches to hydrological model uncertainty.

  19. A dynamic conceptual model of care planning.

    PubMed

    Elf, Marie; Poutilova, Maria; Ohrn, Kerstin

    2007-12-01

    This article presents a conceptual model of the care planning process developed to identify the hypothetical links between structural, process and outcome factors important to the quality of the process. Based on existing literature, it was hypothesized that a thorough assessment of patients' health needs is an important prerequisite when making a rigorous diagnosis and preparing plans for various care interventions. Other important variables that are assumed to influence the quality of the process are the care culture and professional knowledge. The conceptual model was developed as a system dynamics causal loop diagram as a first essential step towards a computed model. System dynamics offers the potential to describe processes in a nonlinear, dynamic way and is suitable for exploring, comprehending, learning and communicating complex ideas about care processes.

  20. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Treesearch

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  1. Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werder, Mauro A.; de Fleurian, Basile; Creyts, Timothy T.; Damsgaard, Anders; Delaney, Ian; Dow, Christine F.; Gagliardini, Olivier; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Seguinot, Julien; Sommers, Aleah; Irarrazaval Bustos, Inigo; Downs, Jakob

    2017-04-01

    The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R-channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.

  2. Uncertainty and the Conceptual Site Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, V.; Nicholson, T. J.

    2007-12-01

    Our focus is on uncertainties in the underlying conceptual framework upon which all subsequent steps in numerical and/or analytical modeling efforts depend. Experienced environmental modelers recognize the value of selecting an optimal conceptual model from several competing site models, but usually do not formally explore possible alternative models, in part due to incomplete or missing site data, as well as relevant regional data for establishing boundary conditions. The value in and approach for developing alternative conceptual site models (CSM) is demonstrated by analysis of case histories. These studies are based on reported flow or transport modeling in which alternative site models are formulated using data that were not available to, or not used by, the original modelers. An important concept inherent to model abstraction of these alternative conceptual models is that it is "Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." (Tukey, 1962) The case histories discussed here illustrate the value of formulating alternative models and evaluating them using site-specific data: (1) Charleston Naval Site where seismic characterization data allowed significant revision of the CSM and subsequent contaminant transport modeling; (2) Hanford 300-Area where surface- and ground-water interactions affecting the unsaturated zone suggested an alternative component to the site model; (3) Savannah River C-Area where a characterization report for a waste site within the modeled area was not available to the modelers, but provided significant new information requiring changes to the underlying geologic and hydrogeologic CSM's used; (4) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) where re-interpretation of resistivity sounding data and water-level data suggested an alternative geologic model. Simple 2-D spreadsheet modeling of the ADRS with the revised CSM provided an improved

  3. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  4. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes for Hydrologic Model Calibration and Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawicz, K. A.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Comeleo, R. L.; Jones, C., Jr.; Wigington, P. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between different watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A revised HL classification scheme was developed for over 10,000 assessment units (the fundamental unit of area for an HL) within the Pacific Northwest (PNW; Oregon, Washington, and Idaho). Aggregation and validation of the PNW HL assessment units to the watershed-scale was then completed for the PNW through use of clustering approaches and the hydrologic response as defined by hydroclimatic signatures. A result generated from this study was that the HL assessment units with greater moisture surplus or deficit formed a stronger connection between watershed-scale PNW HL and hydrologic response. The next step was to investigate the usefulness of the information contained within the PNW with regard to hydrologic modeling calibration and model structure selection. The hypothesis that we set forward for this study is that hydrologic response, as inferred and derived from the HL assessment units, is helpful for the structural identification and calibration of hydrologic models. A selection of streamgage stations and their associated watershed area across the PNW were modeled with lumped and semi-distributed modeling structures. The resulting model calibration and parameter space exploration leads to the identification of assessment unit types that are more hydrologically influential to the overall hydrologic functions of the watershed.

  5. The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nearing, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) is a process-based model that was designed to address rangelands conditions. RHEM is designed for government agencies, land managers and conservationists who need sound, science-based technology to model, assess, and predict runoff and erosion rates on rangelands and to assist in evaluating rangeland conservation practices effects. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of as single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions. Moreover, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet-flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant community by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. A dynamic partial differential sediment continuity equation is used to model the total detachment rate of concentrated flow and rain splash and sheet flow. RHEM is also designed to be used as a calculator, or "engine", within other watershed scale models. From the research perspective RHEM acts as a vehicle for incorporating new scientific findings from rangeland infiltration, runoff, and erosion studies. Current applications of the model include: 1) a web site for general use (conservation planning, research, etc.), 2) National Resource Inventory reports to Congress, 3) as a computational engine within watershed scale models (e.g., KINEROS, HEC), 4) Ecological Site & State and Transition Descriptions, 5) proposed in 2015 to become part of the NRCS Desktop applications for field offices.

  6. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  7. Computer model of in situ leaching hydrology

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-05-01

    A computer program developed by the US Bureau of Mines simulates the hydrologic activity associated with in situ mining. Its purpose is to determine the site specific flow behavior of leachants and groundwater during development, production, and resotration phases of an in situ leaching operations. Model capabilities include arbitrary well patterns and pumping schedules, partially penetrating well screens, directionally anisotropic permeability and natural groundwater flow, in either leaky or nonleaky, confined aquifers and under steady state or time dependent flow conditions. In addition to extensive laboratory testing, the Twin Cites Research Center has closely monitored the application of this model at three different mine sites, and at each site, the solution breakthrough time and the hydraulic head at observation wells were used to tune the model. The model was then used satisfactorily to assess suitability of various well configurations and pumping schedules, in terms of fluid dispersion within the ore pod and fluid excursions into the surrounding aquifer. (JMT)

  8. When are multiobjective calibration trade-offs in hydrologic models meaningful?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kollat, J. B.; Reed, P. M.; Wagener, T.

    2012-03-01

    This paper applies a four-objective calibration strategy focusing on peak flows, low flows, water balance, and flashiness to 392 model parameter estimation experiment (MOPEX) watersheds across the United States. Our analysis explores the influence of model structure by analyzing how the multiobjective calibration trade-offs for two conceptual hydrologic models, the Hydrology Model (HYMOD) and the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, compare for each of the 392 catchments. Our results demonstrate that for modern multiobjective calibration frameworks to identify any meaningful measure of model structural failure, users must be able to carefully control the precision by which they evaluate their trade-offs. Our study demonstrates that the concept of epsilon-dominance provides an effective means of attaining bounded and meaningful hydrologic model calibration trade-offs. When analyzed at an appropriate precision, we found that meaningful multiobjective trade-offs are far less frequent than prior literature has suggested. However, when trade-offs do exist at a meaningful precision, they have significant value for supporting hydrologic model selection, distinguishing core model deficiencies, and identifying hydroclimatic regions where hydrologic model prediction is highly challenging.

  9. On modeling complex interplay in small-scale self-organized socio-hydrological systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muneepeerakul, Rachata

    2017-04-01

    Successful and sustainable socio-hydrological systems, as in any coupled natural human-systems, require effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). Recent work has addressed systems in which resource users and the organization responsible for maintaining the infrastructure are separate entities. However, many socio-hydrological systems, especially in developing countries, are small and without such formal division of labor; rather, such division of labor typically arises from self-organization within the population. In this work, we modify and mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework by developing a system of differential equations that capture the strategic behavior within such a self-organized population, its interplay with infrastructure characteristics and hydrological dynamics, and feedbacks between these elements. The model yields a number of insightful conditions related to long-term sustainability and collapse of the socio-hydrological system in the form of relationships between biophysical and social factors. These relationships encapsulate nonlinear interactions of these factors. The modeling framework is grounded in a solid conceptual foundation upon which additional modifications and realism can be built for potential reconciliation between socio-hydrology with other related fields and further applications.

  10. Hydrogeologic framework, hydrology, and refined conceptual model of groundwater flow for Coastal Plain aquifers at the Standard Chlorine of Delaware, Inc. Superfund Site, New Castle County, Delaware, 2005-12

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brayton, Michael J.; Cruz, Roberto M.; Myers, Luke; Degnan, James R.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.

    2015-01-01

    The regional hydrogeologic framework indicates that the site is underlain by Coastal Plain sediments of the Columbia, Merchantville, and Potomac Formations. Two primary aquifers underlying the site, the Columbia and the upper Potomac, are separated by the Merchantville Formation confining unit. Local groundwater flow in the surficial (Columbia) aquifer is controlled by topography and generally flows northward and discharges to nearby surface water. Regional flow within the Potomac aquifer is towards the southeast, and is strongly influenced by major water withdrawals locally. Previous investigations at the site indicated that contaminants, primarily benzene and chlorinated benzene compounds, were present in the Columbia aquifer in most locations; however, there were only limited detections in the upper Potomac aquifer as of 2004. From 2005 through 2012, the USGS designed a monitoring network, assisted with exploratory drilling, collected data at monitoring wells, conducted geophysical surveys, evaluated water-level responses in wells during pumping of a production well, and evaluated major aquifer withdrawals. Data collected through these efforts were used to refine the local conceptual flow system. The refined conceptual flow system for the site includes: (a) identification of gaps in confining units in the study area, (b) identification and correlation of multiple water-bearing sand intervals within the upper Potomac Formation, (c) connections between groundwater and surface water, (d) connections between shallow and deeper groundwater, (e) new water-level (or potentiometric surface) maps and inferred flow directions, and (f) identification of major local pumping well influences. The implications of the revised conceptual flow system on the occurrence and movement of site contaminants are that the resulting detection of contaminants in the upper Potomac aquifer at specific well locations can be attributed primarily to either advective lateral transport, direct

  11. A Conceptual Model For Effluent-Dependent Riverine Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, M. T.; Meyerhoff, R. D.; Osterkamp, W. R.; Smith, E. L.; Hawkins, R. H.

    2001-12-01

    The Arid West Water Quality Research Project (WQRP) is a multi-year, EPA-funded scientific endeavor directed by the Pima County, Wastewater Management Department in southern Arizona and focussed upon several interconnected ecological questions. These questions are crucial to water quality management in the arid and semi arid western US. A key component has been the ecological, hydrological and geomorphological investigation of habitat created by the discharge of treated effluent into ephemeral streams. Such environments are fundamentally different from the dry streams or rivers they displace; however, they are clearly not the perennial streams they superficially resemble. Under Arizona State regulations, such streams can bear the use designation of "Effluent Dependent Waters," or EDWs. Before this investigation, a hydrological/ecological conceptual model for these unique ecosystems had not been published. We have constructed one for general review that is designed to direct future work in the WQRP. The project investigated ten representative, yet contrasting EDW sites distributed throughout arid areas of the western US, to gather both historical and reconnaissance level field data, including in-stream and riparian, habitat and morphometric fluvial data. In most cases, the cross sectional area of the prior channel is oversized relative to the discharge of the introduced effluent. Where bed control is absent, the channels are incised downstream of the discharge point, further suggesting a disequilibrium between the channel and the regulated effluent flow. Several of the studied stream systems primarily convey storm water and are aggradational, exhibiting braided or anastomizing channels, high energy bedforms, and spatially dynamic interfluves. Active channels are formed in response to individual storm events and can be highly dynamic in both location and cross-sectional morphology. This poses a geomorphological challenge in the selection of a discharge point. We

  12. Plant growth simulation for landscape scale hydrologic modeling

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Landscape scale hydrologic models can be improved by incorporating realistic, process-oriented plant models for simulating crops, grasses, and woody species. The objective of this project was to present some approaches for plant modeling applicable to hydrologic models like SWAT that can affect the...

  13. Updated Conceptual Model for the 300 Area Uranium Groundwater Plume

    SciTech Connect

    Zachara, John M.; Freshley, Mark D.; Last, George V.; Peterson, Robert E.; Bjornstad, Bruce N.

    2012-11-01

    The 300 Area uranium groundwater plume in the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit is residual from past discharge of nuclear fuel fabrication wastes to a number of liquid (and solid) disposal sites. The source zones in the disposal sites were remediated by excavation and backfilled to grade, but sorbed uranium remains in deeper, unexcavated vadose zone sediments. In spite of source term removal, the groundwater plume has shown remarkable persistence, with concentrations exceeding the drinking water standard over an area of approximately 1 km2. The plume resides within a coupled vadose zone, groundwater, river zone system of immense complexity and scale. Interactions between geologic structure, the hydrologic system driven by the Columbia River, groundwater-river exchange points, and the geochemistry of uranium contribute to persistence of the plume. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) to document characterization of the 300 Area uranium plume and plan for beginning to implement proposed remedial actions. As part of the RI/FS document, a conceptual model was developed that integrates knowledge of the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties of the 300 Area and controlling processes to yield an understanding of how the system behaves and the variables that control it. Recent results from the Hanford Integrated Field Research Challenge site and the Subsurface Biogeochemistry Scientific Focus Area Project funded by the DOE Office of Science were used to update the conceptual model and provide an assessment of key factors controlling plume persistence.

  14. Hydrologic connectivity: Quantitative assessments of hydrologic-enforced drainage structures in an elevation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poppenga, Sandra; Worstell, Bruce B.

    2016-01-01

    Elevation data derived from light detection and ranging present challenges for hydrologic modeling as the elevation surface includes bridge decks and elevated road features overlaying culvert drainage structures. In reality, water is carried through these structures; however, in the elevation surface these features impede modeled overland surface flow. Thus, a hydrologically-enforced elevation surface is needed for hydrodynamic modeling. In the Delaware River Basin, hydrologic-enforcement techniques were used to modify elevations to simulate how constructed drainage structures allow overland surface flow. By calculating residuals between unfilled and filled elevation surfaces, artificially pooled depressions that formed upstream of constructed drainage structure features were defined, and elevation values were adjusted by generating transects at the location of the drainage structures. An assessment of each hydrologically-enforced drainage structure was conducted using field-surveyed culvert and bridge coordinates obtained from numerous public agencies, but it was discovered the disparate drainage structure datasets were not comprehensive enough to assess all remotely located depressions in need of hydrologic-enforcement. Alternatively, orthoimagery was interpreted to define drainage structures near each depression, and these locations were used as reference points for a quantitative hydrologic-enforcement assessment. The orthoimagery-interpreted reference points resulted in a larger corresponding sample size than the assessment between hydrologic-enforced transects and field-surveyed data. This assessment demonstrates the viability of rules-based hydrologic-enforcement that is needed to achieve hydrologic connectivity, which is valuable for hydrodynamic models in sensitive coastal regions. Hydrologic-enforced elevation data are also essential for merging with topographic/bathymetric elevation data that extend over vulnerable urbanized areas and dynamic coastal

  15. Multi-Objective Calibration of Conceptual and Artificial Neural Network Models for Improved Runoff Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vos, N. J.; Rientjes, T. H.; Gupta, H. V.

    2006-12-01

    The forecasting of river discharges and water levels requires models that simulate the transformation of rainfall on a watershed into the runoff. The most popular approach to this complex modeling issue is to use conceptual hydrological models. In recent years, however, data-driven model alternatives have gained significant attention. Such models extract and re-use information that is implicit in hydrological data and do not directly take into account the physical laws that underlie rainfall-runoff processes. In this study, we have made a comparison between a conceptual hydrological model and the popular data-driven approach of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling. ANNs use flexible model structures that simulate rainfall-runoff processes by mapping the transformation from system input and/or system states (e.g., rainfall, evaporation, soil moisture content) to system output (e.g. river discharge). Special attention was paid to the procedure of calibration of both approaches. Singular objective functions based on squared-error-based performance measures, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE) are commonly used in rainfall-runoff modeling. However, not all differences between modeled and observed hydrograph characteristics can be adequately expressed by a single performance measure. Nowadays it is acknowledged that the calibration of rainfall-runoff models is inherently multi-objective. Therefore, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) were tested as alternatives to traditional single-objective algorithms for calibration of both a conceptual and an ANN model for forecasting runoff. The MOEAs compare favorably to traditional single-objective methods in terms of performance, and they shed more light on the trade-offs between various objective functions. Additionally, the distribution of model parameter values gives insights into model parameter uncertainty and model structural deficiencies. Summarizing, the current study presents interesting and promising

  16. Bayesian analysis of input uncertainty in hydrological modeling: 2. Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavetski, Dmitri; Kuczera, George; Franks, Stewart W.

    2006-03-01

    The Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology directly addresses both input and output errors in hydrological modeling, requiring the modeler to make explicit, rather than implicit, assumptions about the likely extent of data uncertainty. This study considers a BATEA assessment of two North American catchments: (1) French Broad River and (2) Potomac basins. It assesses the performance of the conceptual Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with and without accounting for input (precipitation) uncertainty. The results show the considerable effects of precipitation errors on the predicted hydrographs (especially the prediction limits) and on the calibrated parameters. In addition, the performance of BATEA in the presence of severe model errors is analyzed. While BATEA allows a very direct treatment of input uncertainty and yields some limited insight into model errors, it requires the specification of valid error models, which are currently poorly understood and require further work. Moreover, it leads to computationally challenging highly dimensional problems. For some types of models, including the VIC implemented using robust numerical methods, the computational cost of BATEA can be reduced using Newton-type methods.

  17. Moving university hydrology education forward with community-based geoinformatics, data and modeling resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.

    2012-08-01

    In this opinion paper, we review recent literature related to data and modeling driven instruction in hydrology, and present our findings from surveying the hydrology education community in the United States. This paper presents an argument that that data and modeling driven geoscience cybereducation (DMDGC) approaches are essential for teaching the conceptual and applied aspects of hydrology, as a part of the broader effort to improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education at the university level. The authors have undertaken a series of surveys and a workshop involving university hydrology educators to determine the state of the practice of DMDGC approaches to hydrology. We identify the most common tools and approaches currently utilized, quantify the extent of the adoption of DMDGC approaches in the university hydrology classroom, and explain the community's views on the challenges and barriers preventing DMDGC approaches from wider use. DMDGC approaches are currently emphasized at the graduate level of the curriculum, and only the most basic modeling and visualization tools are in widespread use. The community identifies the greatest barriers to greater adoption as a lack of access to easily adoptable curriculum materials and a lack of time and training to learn constantly changing tools and methods. The community's current consensus is that DMDGC approaches should emphasize conceptual learning, and should be used to complement rather than replace lecture-based pedagogies. Inadequate online material publication and sharing systems, and a lack of incentives for faculty to develop and publish materials via such systems, is also identified as a challenge. Based on these findings, we suggest that a number of steps should be taken by the community to develop the potential of DMDGC in university hydrology education, including formal development and assessment of curriculum materials, integrating lecture-format and DMDGC approaches

  18. Moving university hydrology education forward with geoinformatics, data and modeling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.

    2012-02-01

    In this opinion paper, we review recent literature related to data and modeling driven instruction in hydrology, and present our findings from surveying the hydrology education community in the United States. This paper presents an argument that that Data and Modeling Driven Geoscience Cybereducation (DMDGC) approaches are valuable for teaching the conceptual and applied aspects of hydrology, as a part of the broader effort to improve Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education at the university level. The authors have undertaken a series of surveys and a workshop involving the community of university hydrology educators to determine the state of the practice of DMDGC approaches to hydrology. We identify the most common tools and approaches currently utilized, quantify the extent of the adoption of DMDGC approaches in the university hydrology classroom, and explain the community's views on the challenges and barriers preventing DMDGC approaches from wider use. DMDGC approaches are currently emphasized at the graduate level of the curriculum, and only the most basic modeling and visualization tools are in widespread use. The community identifies the greatest barriers to greater adoption as a lack of access to easily adoptable curriculum materials and a lack of time and training to learn constantly changing tools and methods. The community's current consensus is that DMDGC approaches should emphasize conceptual learning, and should be used to complement rather than replace lecture-based pedagogies. Inadequate online material-publication and sharing systems, and a lack of incentives for faculty to develop and publish materials via such systems, is also identified as a challenge. Based on these findings, we suggest that a number of steps should be taken by the community to develop the potential of DMDGC in university hydrology education, including formal development and assessment of curriculum materials integrating lecture-format and DMDGC

  19. Pursuing realistic hydrologic model under SUPERFLEX framework in a semi-humid catchment in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Lingna; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Gao, Hongkai; Chen, Xi

    2016-04-01

    Model realism is pursued perpetually by hydrologists for flood and drought prediction, integrated water resources management and decision support of water security. "Physical-based" distributed hydrologic models are speedily developed but they also encounter unneglectable challenges, for instance, computational time with low efficiency and parameters uncertainty. This study step-wisely tested four conceptual hydrologic models under the framework of SUPERFLEX in a small semi-humid catchment in southern Huai River basin of China. The original lumped FLEXL has hypothesized model structure of four reservoirs to represent canopy interception, unsaturated zone, subsurface flow of fast and slow components and base flow storage. Considering the uneven rainfall in space, the second model (FLEXD) is developed with same parameter set for different rain gauge controlling units. To reveal the effect of topography, terrain descriptor of height above the nearest drainage (HAND) combined with slope is applied to classify the experimental catchment into two landscapes. Then the third one (FLEXTOPO) builds different model blocks in consideration of the dominant hydrologic process corresponding to the topographical condition. The fourth one named FLEXTOPOD integrating the parallel framework of FLEXTOPO in four controlled units is designed to interpret spatial variability of rainfall patterns and topographic features. Through pairwise comparison, our results suggest that: (1) semi-distributed models (FLEXD and FLEXTOPOD) taking precipitation spatial heterogeneity into account has improved model performance with parsimonious parameter set, and (2) hydrologic model architecture with flexibility to reflect perceived dominant hydrologic processes can include the local terrain circumstances for each landscape. Hence, the modeling actions are coincided with the catchment behaviour and close to the "reality". The presented methodology is regarding hydrologic model as a tool to test our

  20. Integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems and global positioning system techniques with hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thakur, Jay Krishna; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Ekanthalu, Vicky Shettigondahalli

    2017-07-01

    Integration of remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) are emerging research areas in the field of groundwater hydrology, resource management, environmental monitoring and during emergency response. Recent advancements in the fields of RS, GIS, GPS and higher level of computation will help in providing and handling a range of data simultaneously in a time- and cost-efficient manner. This review paper deals with hydrological modeling, uses of remote sensing and GIS in hydrological modeling, models of integrations and their need and in last the conclusion. After dealing with these issues conceptually and technically, we can develop better methods and novel approaches to handle large data sets and in a better way to communicate information related with rapidly decreasing societal resources, i.e. groundwater.

  1. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  2. Coupling hydrologic and infectious disease models to explain regional differences in schistosomiasis transmission in southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Remais, Justin; Liang, Song; Spear, Robert C

    2008-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff models have become essential tools for conceptualizing and predicting the response of hydrologic processes to changing environments, but they have rarely been applied to challenges facing health scientists. Yet with their efficient parameterization and modest data requirements, they hold great promise for epidemiological application. A modeling analysis incorporating simple hydrologic constraints on transmission of the human parasite Schistosoma japonicum in southwestern China was conducted by coupling a lumped parameter rainfall-runoff model (IHACRES) with a delay-differential equation schistosomiasis transmission model modified to account for channel flows and on-field egg inactivation. Model predictions of prevalence and infection timing agree with observations in the region, which indicate that hydrological differences between sites can lead to pronounced differences in transmission. Channel flows are shown to be important in determining infection intensity and timing in modeled village populations. In the periodic absence of flow, overall transmission intensity is reduced among all modeled risk groups. However, the influence of hydrologic variability was greater on the cercarial stage of the parasite than the miracidial stage, due to the parasite ova's ability to survive dormant on fields between rain events. The predictive power gained from including hydrological data in epidemiological models can improve risk assessments for environmentally mediated diseases, under both long-term climate change scenarios and near-term weather fluctuations.

  3. Evaluating snow models for hydrological applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonas, T.; Magnusson, J.; Wever, N.; Essery, R.; Helbig, N.

    2014-12-01

    Much effort has been invested in developing snow models over several decades, resulting in a wide variety of empirical and physically-based snow models. Within the two categories, models are built on the same principles but mainly differ in choices of model simplifications and parameterizations describing individual processes. In this study, we demonstrate an informative method for evaluating a large range of snow model structures for hydrological applications using an existing multi-model energy-balance framework and data from two well-instrumented sites with a seasonal snow cover. We also include two temperature-index snow models and one physically-based multi-layer snow model in our analyses. Our results show that the ability of models to predict snowpack runoff is strongly related to the agreement of observed and modelled snow water equivalent whereas such relationship is not present for snow depth or snow surface temperature measurements. For snow water equivalent and runoff, the models seem transferable between our two study sites, a behaviour which is not observed for snow surface temperature predictions due to site-specificity of turbulent heat transfer formulations. Uncertainties in the input and validation data, rather than model formulation, appear to contribute most to low model performances in some winters. More importantly, we find that model complexity is not a determinant for predicting daily snow water equivalent and runoff reliably, but choosing an appropriate model structure is. Our study shows the usefulness of the multi-model framework for identifying appropriate models under given constraints such as data availability, properties of interest and computational cost.

  4. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  5. HD Hydrological modelling at catchment scale using rainfall radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciampalini Rossano. Ciampalini@Gmail. Com), Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Augas, Julien; Moussa, Roger; Colin, François; Le Bissonnais, Yves

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological simulations at catchment scale repose on the quality and data availability both for soil and rainfall data. Soil data are quite easy to be collected, although their quality depends on the resources devoted to this task, rainfall data observations, instead, need further effort because of their spatiotemporal variability. Rainfalls are normally recorded with rain gauges located in the catchment, they can provide detailed temporal data, but, the representativeness is limited to the point where the data are collected. Combining different gauges in space can provide a better representation of the rainfall event but the spatialization is often the main obstacle to obtain data close to the reality. Since several years, radar observations overcome this gap providing continuous data registration, that, when properly calibrated, can offer an adequate, continuous, cover in space and time for medium-wide catchments. Here, we use radar records for the south of the France on the La Peyne catchment with the protocol there adopted by the national meteo agency, with resolution of 1 km space and 5' time scale observations. We present here the realisation of a model able to perform from rainfall radar observations, continuous hydrological and soil erosion simulations. The model is semi-theoretically based, once it simulates water fluxes (infiltration-excess overland flow, saturation overland flow, infiltration and channel routing) with a cinematic wave using the St. Venant equation on a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, and, an empirical representation of sediment load as adopted in models such as STREAM-LANDSOIL (Cerdan et al., 2002, Ciampalini et al., 2012). The advantage of this approach is to furnish a dynamic representation - simulation of the rainfall-runoff events more easily than using spatialized rainfalls from meteo stations and to offer a new look on the spatial component of the events.

  6. Can citizen-based observations be assimilated in hydrological models to improve flood prediction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2015-04-01

    In the recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used to measure hydrological variables by citizens in a more spatially distributed way than classic static physical sensors. However, such measurements have the main characteristics to have irregular arrival time and variable uncertainty. This study presents a Kalman filter based method to integrate citizen-based observations into hydrological models in order to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a lumped conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations coming at irregular time steps are not available. The results of this study pointed out how increasing the number of uncertain citizen-based observations within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Therefore, observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (http://wesenseit.eu/).

  7. An Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator: fusion of Input, Parameter and Model Structural Uncertainty Estimation in Hydrologic Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, N. K.; Duan, Q.; Sorooshian, S.

    2005-12-01

    To-date single conceptual hydrologic models often applied to interpret physical processes within a watershed. Nevertheless hydrologic models regardless of their sophistication and complexity are simplified representation of the complex, spatially distributed and highly nonlinear real world system. Consequently their hydrologic predictions contain considerable uncertainty from different sources including: hydrometeorological forcing inputs, boundary/initial conditions, model structure, model parameters which need to be accounted for. Thus far the effort has gone to address these sources of uncertainty explicitly, making an implicit assumption that uncertainties from different sources are additive. Nevertheless because of the nonlinear nature of the hydrologic systems, it is not feasible to account for these uncertainties independently. Here we present the Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) which accounts for total uncertainties from all major sources: inputs forcing, model structure, model parameters. This algorithm explores multi-model framework to tackle model structural uncertainty while using the Bayesian rules to estimate parameter and input uncertainty within individual models. Three hydrologic models including SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, Hydrologic model (HYMOD) and Simple Water Balance (SWB) model were considered within IBUNE framework for this study. The results which are presented for the Leaf River Basin, MS, indicates that IBUNE gives a better quantification of uncertainty through hydrological modeling processes, therefore provide more reliable and less bias prediction with realistic uncertainty boundaries.

  8. A conceptual model for leadership development.

    PubMed

    Wright, K; Rowitz, L; Merkle, A

    2001-07-01

    Collaboration among schools of public health and national, state, and local health agencies has resulted in creation of comprehensive public health workforce education and training initiatives that offer integrated, sequential, and accessible professional development programs, including a nation-wide network of public health leadership institutes. A conceptual model for leadership development is presented. It contains seven elements considered critical for design of leadership programs in public health: capacity/competence needs; program target; area served; program content; training level; learning approach; and implementation methods. This model can be used to design leadership as well as public health workforce education and training programs.

  9. Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, James E.

    2001-01-01

    A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5

  10. Improvements of Physically-Based Hydrological Modelling using the ACRU Agro-Hydrological Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonifacio, C. M. T.; Kienzle, S. W.; Xu, W.; Zhang, J.

    2014-12-01

    The uncertainty of future water availability due to climate change in the Upper Oldman River Basin in Alberta, Canada, and downstream users is considered in this study. A changing climate can significantly perturb hydrological response within a region, thereby affecting the available water resources within southern Alberta. The ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system is applied to simulate historical (1950-2010) and future (2041-2070) streamflows and volumes of a major irrigation reservoir. Like many highly complex, process-based distributed models, major limitations include the data availability and data quality at finer spatial resolutions. With the use of a scripting language, certain limitations can be greatly reduced. Three phases of the project will be emphasized. First, the assimilation of solar radiation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed daily data into the Canadian 10KM daily climate data that contains daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1950-2010, so as to enable potential evapotranspiration calculations using the Penman-Monteith equation. Second, the downscaling of five regional climate model (RCM) data to match the 10KM spatial resolution was undertaken. Third, a total of 1722 hydrological response units (HRUs) were delineated within the 4403 km2 large upper Oldman River Basin. In all phases of model input data parameterization and calibration, the automation of known external procedures greatly decreased erroneous model inputs and increased the efficiency of validating the quality of input data to be used within the ACRU model.

  11. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Treesearch

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  12. Critical conceptualism in environmental modeling and prediction.

    PubMed

    Christakos, G

    2003-10-15

    Many important problems in environmental science and engineering are of a conceptual nature. Research and development, however, often becomes so preoccupied with technical issues, which are themselves fascinating, that it neglects essential methodological elements of conceptual reasoning and theoretical inquiry. This work suggests that valuable insight into environmental modeling can be gained by means of critical conceptualism which focuses on the software of human reason and, in practical terms, leads to a powerful methodological framework of space-time modeling and prediction. A knowledge synthesis system develops the rational means for the epistemic integration of various physical knowledge bases relevant to the natural system of interest in order to obtain a realistic representation of the system, provide a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty sources, generate meaningful predictions of environmental processes in space-time, and produce science-based decisions. No restriction is imposed on the shape of the distribution model or the form of the predictor (non-Gaussian distributions, multiple-point statistics, and nonlinear models are automatically incorporated). The scientific reasoning structure underlying knowledge synthesis involves teleologic criteria and stochastic logic principles which have important advantages over the reasoning method of conventional space-time techniques. Insight is gained in terms of real world applications, including the following: the study of global ozone patterns in the atmosphere using data sets generated by instruments on board the Nimbus 7 satellite and secondary information in terms of total ozone-tropopause pressure models; the mapping of arsenic concentrations in the Bangladesh drinking water by assimilating hard and soft data from an extensive network of monitoring wells; and the dynamic imaging of probability distributions of pollutants across the Kalamazoo river.

  13. Achievements and Problems of Conceptual Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thalheim, Bernhard

    Database and information systems technology has substantially changed. Nowadays, content management systems, (information-intensive) web services, collaborating systems, internet databases, OLAP databases etc. have become buzzwords. At the same time, object-relational technology has gained the maturity for being widely applied. Conceptual modelling has not (yet) covered all these novel topics. It has been concentrated for more than two decades around specification of structures. Meanwhile, functionality, interactivity and distribution must be included into conceptual modelling of information systems. Also, some of the open problems that have been already discussed in 1987 [15, 16] still remain to be open. At the same time, novel models such as object-relational models or XML-based models have been developed. They did not overcome all the problems but have been sharpening and extending the variety of open problems. The open problem presented are given for classical areas of database research, i.e., structuring and functionality. The entire are of distribution and interaction is currently an area of very intensive research.

  14. Conceptual modeling for Prospective Health Technology Assessment.

    PubMed

    Gantner-Bär, Marion; Djanatliev, Anatoli; Prokosch, Hans-Ulrich; Sedlmayr, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Prospective Health Technology Assessment (ProHTA) is a new and innovative approach to analyze and assess new technologies, methods and procedures in health care. Simulation processes are used to model innovations before the cost-intensive design and development phase. Thus effects on patient care, the health care system as well as health economics aspects can be estimated. To generate simulation models a valid information base is necessary and therefore conceptual modeling is most suitable. Project-specifically improved methods and characteristics of simulation modeling are combined in the ProHTA Conceptual Modeling Process and initially implemented for acute ischemic stroke treatment in Germany. Additionally the project aims at simulation of other diseases and health care systems as well. ProHTA is an interdisciplinary research project within the Cluster of Excellence for Medical Technology - Medical Valley European Metropolitan Region Nuremberg (EMN), which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), project grant No. 01EX1013B.

  15. A Structural Equation Model of Conceptual Change in Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2011-01-01

    A model of conceptual change in physics was tested on introductory-level, college physics students. Structural equation modeling was used to test hypothesized relationships among variables linked to conceptual change in physics including an approach goal orientation, need for cognition, motivation, and course grade. Conceptual change in physics…

  16. Conceptual Frameworks in the Doctoral Research Process: A Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Jeanette; Smyth, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper contributes to consideration of the role of conceptual frameworks in the doctoral research process. Through reflection on the two authors' own conceptual frameworks for their doctoral studies, a pedagogical model has been developed. The model posits the development of a conceptual framework as a core element of the doctoral…

  17. Conceptual Frameworks in the Doctoral Research Process: A Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Jeanette; Smyth, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper contributes to consideration of the role of conceptual frameworks in the doctoral research process. Through reflection on the two authors' own conceptual frameworks for their doctoral studies, a pedagogical model has been developed. The model posits the development of a conceptual framework as a core element of the doctoral…

  18. Hydrologic modeling of pathogen fate and transport.

    PubMed

    Dorner, Sarah M; Anderson, William B; Slawson, Robin M; Kouwen, Nicholas; Huck, Peter M

    2006-08-01

    A watershed-scale fate and transport model has been developed for Escherichia coli and several waterborne pathogens: Cryptosporidiumspp., Giardiaspp., Campylobacter spp, and E. coli O157:H7. The objectives were to determine the primary sources of pathogenic contamination in a watershed used for drinking water supply and to gain a greater understanding of the factors that most influence their survival and transport. To predict the levels of indicator bacteria and pathogens in surface water, an existing hydrologic model, WATFLOOD, was augmented for pathogen transport and tested on a watershed in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. The pathogen model considered transport as a result of overland flow, subsurface flow to tile drainage systems, and in-stream routing. The model predicted that most microorganisms entering the stream from land-based sources enter the stream from tile drainage systems rather than overland transport. Although the model predicted overland transport to be rare, when it occurred, it corresponded to the highest observed and modeled microbial concentrations. Furthermore, rapid increases in measured E. coli concentrations during storm events suggested that the resuspension of microorganisms from stream sediments may be of equal or greater importance than land-based sources of pathogens.

  19. Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

  20. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2015-08-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human and hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding the choice of modeling structure, scope, and detail. A shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope, and detail to remain contingent and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate its utility by exploring a question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available

  1. Flexibility on storage-release based distributed hydrologic modeling with object-oriented approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Kwangmin; Merwade, Venkatesh; Chun, Jong Ahn; Timlin, Dennis

    2016-09-01

    With the availability of advanced hydrologic data in public domain such as remote sensed and climate change scenario data, there is a need for a modeling framework that is capable of using these data to simulate and extend hydrologic processes with multidisciplinary approaches for sustainable water resources management. To address this need, a storage-release based distributed hydrologic model (STORE DHM) is developed based on an object-oriented approach. The model is tested for demonstrating model flexibility and extensibility to know how to well integrate object-oriented approach to further hydrologic research issues, e.g., reconstructing missing precipitation in this study, without changing its main frame. Moreover, the STORE DHM is applied to simulate hydrological processes with multiple classes in the Nanticoke watershed. This study also describes a conceptual and structural framework of object-oriented inheritance and aggregation characteristics under the STORE DHM. In addition, NearestMP (missing value estimation based on nearest neighborhood regression) and KernelMP (missing value estimation based on Kernel Function) are proposed for evaluating STORE DHM flexibility. And then, STORE DHM runoff hydrographs compared with NearestMP and KernelMP runoff hydrographs. Overall results from these comparisons show promising hydrograph outputs generated by the proposed two classes. Consequently, this study suggests that STORE DHM with an object-oriented approach will be a comprehensive water resources modeling tools by adding additional classes for toward developing through its flexibility and extensibility.

  2. A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  3. Modeling the hydrologic impacts of forest harvesting on Florida flatwoods

    Treesearch

    Ge Sun; Hans Rierkerk; Nicholas B. Comerford

    1998-01-01

    The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flatwoods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The flatwoods model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites...

  4. An integrated hydrologic modeling framework for coupling SWAT with MODFLOW

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), MODFLOW, and Energy Balance based Evapotranspiration (EB_ET) models are extensively used to estimate different components of the hydrological cycle. Surface and subsurface hydrological processes are modeled in SWAT but limited to the extent of shallow aquif...

  5. A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  6. Multi-Objective Calibrationo of Hydrologic Model Using Satellite Data

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Hydrologic modeling often involves a large number of parameters, some of which cannot be measured directly and may vary with land cover, soil or even seasons. Therefore parameter estimation is a critical step in applying a hydrologic model to any study area. Parameter estimation is typically done by...

  7. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  8. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  9. Hydrological Modelling of Small Catchments Using Swat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kannan, N.; White, S. M.; Worrall, F.; Groves, S.

    The data from a 142ha catchment in Eastern England(Colworth, Bedfordshire)are be- ing used to investigate the performance of the USDA SWAT software for modelling hydrology of small catchments. Stream flow at the catchment outlet has been mon- itored since October 1999. About 50% of the total catchment is directly controlled within one farm and a rotation of wheat, oil seed rape, grass, linseed, beans and peas is grown. Three years of stream flow and climate data are available. Calibration and validation of stream flow was carried out with both runoff modelling options in the SWAT model (USDA curve number method and the Green and Ampt method). The Nash and Sutcliffe efficiencies for the calibration period were 66% and 63% respec- tively. The performance of SWAT was better in the validation period as a whole, with regard to timing of peaks, baseflow values and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency. An ef- ficiency of 70% was obtained using the curve number method, which is comparable with the efficiencies obtainable with more complex models. Despite this performance, SWAT is under predicting stream flow peaks. A detailed investigation of important model components, has allowed us to identify some of the reasons for under predic- tion of stream flow peaks.

  10. Importance of incorporating agriculture in conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2016-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi-)distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using this spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. In large parts of Europe the original forested land cover is replaced by an agricultural land cover. This change in land cover probably affects the dominant runoff processes in the area, for example by increasing the Hortonian overland flow component, especially on the flatter and higher elevated parts of the catchment. A change in runoff processes implies a change in HRUs as well. A previous version of our model distinguished wetlands (areas close to the stream) from the remainder of the catchment. However, this configuration was not able to reproduce all fast runoff processes, both in summer as in winter. Therefore, this study tests whether the reproduction of fast runoff processes can be improved by incorporating a HRU which explicitly accounts for the effect of agriculture. A case study is carried out in the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. For this case study the relevance of different process conceptualisations is tested stepwise. Among the conceptualisations are Hortonian overland flow in summer and winter, reduced infiltration capacity due to a partly frozen soil and the relative effect of rainfall and snow smelt in case of this frozen soil. The results show that the named processes can make a large difference on event basis, especially the Hortonian overland flow in summer and the combination of rainfall and snow melt on (partly) frozen soil in winter. However, differences diminish when the modelled period of several years is evaluated based on standard metrics like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. These results emphasise on one hand the importance of incorporating the effects of agricultural in conceptual models and on the other hand the importance of more event

  11. A Conceptual Model of Referee Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    Guillén, Félix; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual model of referee efficacy, defines the concept, proposes sources of referee specific efficacy information, and suggests consequences of having high or low referee efficacy. Referee efficacy is defined as the extent to which referees believe they have the capacity to perform successfully in their job. Referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to be influenced by mastery experiences, referee knowledge/education, support from significant others, physical/mental preparedness, environmental comfort, and perceived anxiety. In turn, referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to influence referee performance, referee stress, athlete rule violations, athlete satisfaction, and co-referee satisfaction. PMID:21713174

  12. A conceptual model of referee efficacy.

    PubMed

    Guillén, Félix; Feltz, Deborah L

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual model of referee efficacy, defines the concept, proposes sources of referee specific efficacy information, and suggests consequences of having high or low referee efficacy. Referee efficacy is defined as the extent to which referees believe they have the capacity to perform successfully in their job. Referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to be influenced by mastery experiences, referee knowledge/education, support from significant others, physical/mental preparedness, environmental comfort, and perceived anxiety. In turn, referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to influence referee performance, referee stress, athlete rule violations, athlete satisfaction, and co-referee satisfaction.

  13. Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

  14. Propulsion System Models for Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Wayne

    2014-01-01

    The conceptual design code NDARC (NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft) was initially implemented to model conventional rotorcraft propulsion systems, consisting of turboshaft engines burning jet fuel, connected to one or more rotors through a mechanical transmission. The NDARC propulsion system representation has been extended to cover additional propulsion concepts, including electric motors and generators, rotor reaction drive, turbojet and turbofan engines, fuel cells and solar cells, batteries, and fuel (energy) used without weight change. The paper describes these propulsion system components, the architecture of their implementation in NDARC, and the form of the models for performance and weight. Requirements are defined for improved performance and weight models of the new propulsion system components. With these new propulsion models, NDARC can be used to develop environmentally-friendly rotorcraft designs.

  15. A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.C.

    1988-01-01

    Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  16. Recent developments for the advancement of hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    This talk will consist of three parts: In the first, I will pick up the major questions formulated in the session outline (theories to support hydrological model development, representation of emergent behavior, optimality principles and landscape structure in models, approaches for model evaluation and selection) and present and discuss recent examples for each. In the second part, I will reflect on what the consideration of the above desirables implies for the way we should structure and implement hydrological models. Finally, I will illustrate the latter point with examples from the CAOS model (a mesoscale hydrological model currently under construction in the framework of the Catchments As Organized Systems research group).

  17. Potential for Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engman, Edwin T.

    1997-01-01

    Many hydrologic processes display a unique signature that is detectable with microwave remote sensing. These signatures are in the form of the spatial and temporal distributions of surface soil moisture and portray the spatial heterogeneity of hydrologic processes and properties that one encounters in drainage basins. The hydrologic processes that may be detected include ground water recharge and discharge zones, storm runoff contributing areas, regions of potential and less than potential ET, and information about the hydrologic properties of soils and heterogeneity of hydrologic parameters. Microwave remote sensing has the potential to detect these signatures within a basin in the form of volumetric soil moisture measurements in the top few cm. These signatures should provide information on how and where to apply soil physical parameters in distributed and lumped parameter models and how to subdivide drainage basins into hydrologically similar sub-basins.

  18. Global scale hydrology - Advances in land surface modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, E.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Research into global scale hydrology is an expanding area that includes researchers from the meteorology, climatology, ecology and hydrology communities. This paper reviews research in this area carried out in the United States during the last IUGG quadrennial period of 1987-1990. The review covers the representation of land-surface hydrologic processes for general circulation models (GCMs), sensitivity analysis of these representations on global hydrologic fields like precipitation, regional studies of climate that have global hydrologic implications, recent field studies and experiments whose aims are the improved understanding of land surface-atmospheric interactions, and the use of remotely sensed data for the further understanding of the spatial variability of surface hydrologic processes that are important at regional and global climate scales. 76 refs.

  19. CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR THE LASSEN HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, S.E.; Sorey, M.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Lassen hydrothermal system, like a number of other systems in regions of moderate to great topographic relief, includes steam-heated features at higher elevations and high-chloride springs at lower elevations, connected to and fed by a single circulation system at depth. Two conceptual models for such systems are presented. They are similar in several ways: however, there are basic differences in terms of the nature and extent of vapor-dominated conditions beneath the steam-heated features. For some Lassen-like systems, these differences could have environmental and economic implications. Available data do not make it possible to establish a single preferred model for the Lassen system, and the actual system is complex enough that both models may apply to different parts of the system.

  20. Hydrological and pesticide transfer modeling in a tropical volcanic watershed with the WATPPASS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mottes, Charles; Lesueur-Jannoyer, Magalie; Charlier, Jean-Baptiste; Carles, Céline; Guéné, Mathilde; Le Bail, Marianne; Malézieux, Eric

    2015-10-01

    Simulation of flows and pollutant transfers in heterogeneous media is widely recognized to be a remaining frontier in hydrology research. We present a new modeling approach to simulate agricultural pollutions in watersheds: WATPPASS, a model for Watershed Agricultural Techniques and Pesticide Practices ASSessment. It is designed to assess mean pesticide concentrations and loads that result from the use of pesticides in horticultural watersheds located on heterogeneous subsoil. WATPPASS is suited for small watershed with significant groundwater flows and complex aquifer systems. The model segments the watershed into fields with independent hydrological and pesticide transfers at the ground surface. Infiltrated water and pesticides are routed toward outlet using a conceptual reservoir model. We applied WATPPASS on a heterogeneous tropical volcanic watershed of Martinique in the French West Indies. We carried out and hydrological analysis that defined modeling constraints: (i) a spatial variability of runoff/infiltration partitioning according to land use, and (ii) a predominance of groundwater flow paths in two overlapping aquifers under permeable soils (50-60% of annual flows). We carried out simulations on a 550 days period at a daily time step for hydrology (Nashsqrt > 0.75). Weekly concentrations and loads of a persistent organic pesticide (chlordecone) were simulated for 67 weeks to evaluate the modeling approach. Pesticide simulations without specific calibration detected the mean long-term measured concentration, leading to a good quantification of the cumulative loads (5% error), but failed to represent the concentration peaks at the correct timing. Nevertheless, we succeed in adjusting the model structure to better represent the temporal dynamic of pesticide concentrations. This modification requires a proper evaluation on an independent dataset. Finally, WATPPASS is a compromise between complexity and easiness of use that makes it suited for cropping system

  1. Lessons Learned from Dynamic Linking of a Hydrology Model with an Electricity Sector Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, S. M.; Newmark, R. L.; Miara, A.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Energy systems models and climate-driven hydrological models are designed and operate at different temporal and spatial scales due to the unique physical and infrastructure constraints of the systems that they represent. As the research community seeks to explicitly represent the complex interactions of the energy sector with climate conditions and hydrological resources, these scale inconsistencies present significant technical and conceptual challenges to traditional modeling approaches. To address these challenges, a multi-institution consortium of researchers has been exploring unique approaches to linking energy systems and climate-driven hydrological models to better understand how these different coupling approaches affect model outcomes and computation time. The present framework links the Water Balance Model (WBM) and the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution Model (TP2M), which evaluate hydrological conditions under a variety of climate and power plant configuration conditions, with the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model, an electricity sector capacity expansion model. ReEDS is a more spatially and temporally aggregated model than WBM/TP2M, so model coupling requires disaggregating ReEDS deployment and dispatch results for use in site-specific hydrological calculations. WBM and TP2M are used to evaluate the feasibility of ReEDS output under highly resolved geophysical constraints and river network dynamics, and infeasible electricity dispatch can be fed back to constraints on the electric sector capacity expansion in ReEDS. An initial case study of modeling coupling was conducted in the Northeastern United States, and the work is being expanded to the contiguous United States to evaluate twenty climate scenarios under three different policy scenarios. This unique coupling approach across modeling platforms from different institutions is exploring mechanisms to automate model feedbacks at different time steps to demonstrate feasibility

  2. A diagnostic approach to constraining flow partitioning in hydrologic models using a multiobjective optimization framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita; Craig, James R.; Schiff, Sherry L.; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2017-04-01

    Hydrologic models are often tasked with replicating historical hydrographs but may do so without accurately reproducing the internal hydrological functioning of the watershed, including the flow partitioning, which is critical for predicting solute movement through the catchment. Here we propose a novel partitioning-focused calibration technique that utilizes flow-partitioning coefficients developed based on the pioneering work of L'vovich (1979). Our hypothesis is that inclusion of the L'vovich partitioning relations in calibration increases model consistency and parameter identifiability and leads to superior model performance with respect to flow partitioning than using traditional hydrological signatures (e.g., flow duration curve indices) alone. The L'vovich approach partitions the annual precipitation into four components (quick flow, soil wetting, slow flow, and evapotranspiration) and has been shown to work across a range of climatic and landscape settings. A new diagnostic multicriteria model calibration methodology is proposed that first quantifies four calibration measures for watershed functions based on the L'vovich theory, and then utilizes them as calibration criteria. The proposed approach is compared with a traditional hydrologic signature-based calibration for two conceptual bucket models. Results reveal that the proposed approach not only improves flow partitioning in the model compared to signature-based calibration but is also capable of diagnosing flow-partitioning inaccuracy and suggesting relevant model improvements. Furthermore, the proposed partitioning-based calibration approach is shown to increase parameter identifiability. This model calibration approach can be readily applied to other models.

  3. Evaluation of Community Land Model Hydrologic Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. Y.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Bohn, T.; Delire, C.

    2005-12-01

    Confidence in representation and parameterization of land surface processes in coupled land-atmosphere models is strongly dependent on a diversity of opportunities for model testing, since such coupled models are usually intended for application in a wide range of conditions (regional models) or globally. Land surface models have been increasing in complexity over the past decade, which has increased the demands on data sets appropriate for model testing and evaluation. In this study, we compare the performance of two commonly used land surface schemes - the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Community Land Model (CLM) with respect to their ability to reproduce observed water and energy fluxes in off-line tests for two large river basins with contrasting hydroclimatic conditions spanning the range from temperate continental to arctic, and for five point (column flux) sites spanning the range from tropical to arctic. The two large river basins are the Arkansas-Red in U.S. southern Great Plains, and the Torne-Kalix in northern Scandinavia. The column flux evaluations are for a tropical forest site at Reserva Jaru (ABRACOS) in Brazil, a prairie site (FIFE) near Manhattan, Kansas in the central U.S., a soybean site at Caumont (HAPEX-Monbilhy) in France, a meadow site at Cabauw in the Netherlands, and a small grassland catchment at Valday, Russia. The results indicate that VIC can reasonably well capture the land surface biophysical processes, while CLM is somewhat less successful. We suggest changes to the CLM parameterizations that would improve its general performance with respect to its representation of land surface hydrologic processes.

  4. Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, Keith

    1989-01-01

    This paper argues that there are fundamental problems in the application of physically-based models for practical prediction in hydrology. These problems result from limitations of the model equations relative to a heterogeneous reality; the lack of a theory of subgrid scale integration; practical constraints on solution methodologies; and problems of dimensionality in parameter calibration. It is suggested that most current applications of physically-based models use them as lumped conceptual models at the grid scale. Recent papers on physically-based models have misunderstood and misrepresented these limitations. There are practical hydrological problems requiring physically-based predictions, and there will continue to be a need for physically-based models but ideas about their capabilities must change so that future applications attempt to obtain realistic estimates of the uncertainty associated with their predictions, particularly in the case of evaluating future scenarios of the effects of management strategies.

  5. Representation of the Conceptual Change Model in Science Teacher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thorley, N. Richard; Stofflett, Rene T.

    1996-01-01

    Analyzes key concepts of the conceptual change model: intelligibility, plausibility, and fruitfulness, together with conceptions of learning as conceptual change and the nature of conceptual change teaching. Organizes representations of these around a framework developed for representing scientific conceptions in terms of verbal and symbolic…

  6. Data Modeling & the Infrastructural Nature of Conceptual Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesh, Richard; Caylor, Elizabeth; Gupta, Shweta

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the infrastructural nature of many modern conceptual technologies. The focus of this paper is on conceptual tools associated with elementary types of data modeling. We intend to show a variety of ways in which these conceptual tools not only express thinking, but also mold and shape thinking. And those ways…

  7. Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  8. A comparison of hydrological deformation using GPS and global hydrological model for the Eurasian plate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhen; Yue, Jianping; Li, Wang; Lu, Dekai; Li, Xiaogen

    2017-08-01

    The 0.5° × 0.5° gridded hydrological loading from Global Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM) mass distributions is adopted for 32 GPS sites on the Eurasian plate from January 2010 to January 2014. When the heights of these sites that have been corrected for the effects of non-tidal atmospheric and ocean loading are adjusted by the hydrological loading deformation, more than one third of the root-mean-square (RMS) values of the GPS height variability become larger. After analyzing the results by continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC), we confirm that hydrological loading primarily contributes to the annual variations in GPS heights. Further, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) is used to investigate the relative phase between the time series of GPS heights and hydrological deformation, and it is indicated that the annual oscillations in the two time series are physically related for some sites; other geophysical effect, GPS systematic errors and hydrological modeling errors could result in the phase asynchrony between GPS and hydrological loading signals for the other sites. Consequently, the phase asynchrony confirms that the annual fluctuations in GPS observations result from a combination of geophysical signals and systematic errors.

  9. Turnaround Time Modeling for Conceptual Rocket Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nix, Michael; Staton, Eric J.

    2004-01-01

    Recent years have brought about a paradigm shift within NASA and the Space Launch Community regarding the performance of conceptual design. Reliability, maintainability, supportability, and operability are no longer effects of design; they have moved to the forefront and are affecting design. A primary focus of this shift has been a planned decrease in vehicle turnaround time. Potentials for instituting this decrease include attacking the issues of removing, refurbishing, and replacing the engines after each flight. less, it is important to understand the operational affects of an engine on turnaround time, ground support personnel and equipment. One tool for visualizing this relationship involves the creation of a Discrete Event Simulation (DES). A DES model can be used to run a series of trade studies to determine if the engine is meeting its requirements, and, if not, what can be altered to bring it into compliance. Using DES, it is possible to look at the ways in which labor requirements, parallel maintenance versus serial maintenance, and maintenance scheduling affect the overall turnaround time. A detailed DES model of the Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME) has been developed. Trades may be performed using the SSME Processing Model to see where maintenance bottlenecks occur, what the benefits (if any) are of increasing the numbers of personnel, or the number and location of facilities, in addition to trades previously mentioned, all with the goal of optimizing the operational turnaround time and minimizing operational cost. The SSME Processing Model was developed in such a way that it can easily be used as a foundation for developing DES models of other operational or developmental reusable engines. Performing a DES on a developmental engine during the conceptual phase makes it easier to affect the design and make changes to bring about a decrease in turnaround time and costs.

  10. Hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eisenbies, Mark H.; Hughes, W. Brian

    2000-01-01

    Hydrologic process are the main determinants of the type of wetland located on a site. Precipitation, groundwater, or flooding interact with soil properties and geomorphic setting to yield a complex matrix of conditions that control groundwater flux, water storage and discharge, water chemistry, biotic productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycling. Hydroperiod affects many abiotic factors that in turn determine plant and animal species composition, biodiversity, primary and secondary productivity, accumulation, of organic matter, and nutrient cycling. Because the hydrologic regime has a major influence on wetland functioning, understanding how hydrologic changes influence ecosystem processes is essential, especially in light of the pressures placed on remaining wetlands by society's demands for water resources and by potential global changes in climate.

  11. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  12. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  13. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Treesearch

    Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville

    2010-01-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

  14. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  15. Comparison of Various Optimization Methods for Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu

    2010-05-01

    Runoff forecasts are needed in many water resources activities such as flood and drought management, irrigation practices, and water distribution systems, etc. Runoff is generally forecasted using rainfall-runoff models by using hydrologic data in the catchment. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular with practicing hydrologists and water resources engineers for performing hydrologic forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia. The RRL consists of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. RRL is designed to simulate catchment runoff by using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of different optimization methods for the calibration of various conceptual rainfall-runoff models available in RRL toolkit are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, AWBM (The Australian Water Balance Model) has been employed. Seven different optimization methods are investigated for the calibration of the AWBM model. The optimization methods investigated include uniform random sampling, pattern search, multi start pattern search, Rosenbrock search, Rosenbrock multi-start search, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the optimizers for all to develop the AWBM. The results obtained from the best configuration of the AWBM are presented here for all optimization methods. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that

  16. Computer-assisted mesh generation based on hydrological response units for distributed hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanzana, P.; Jankowfsky, S.; Branger, F.; Braud, I.; Vargas, X.; Hitschfeld, N.; Gironás, J.

    2013-08-01

    Distributed hydrological models rely on a spatial discretization composed of homogeneous units representing different areas within the catchment. Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) typically form the basis of such a discretization. HRUs are generally obtained by intersecting raster or vector layers of land uses, soil types, geology and sub-catchments. Polylines maps representing ditches and river drainage networks can also be used. However this overlapping may result in a mesh with numerical and topological problems not highly representative of the terrain. Thus, a pre-processing is needed to improve the mesh in order to avoid negative effects on the performance of the hydrological model. This paper proposes computer-assisted mesh generation tools to obtain a more regular and physically meaningful mesh of HRUs suitable for hydrologic modeling. We combined existing tools with newly developed scripts implemented in GRASS GIS. The developed scripts address the following problems: (1) high heterogeneity in Digital Elevation Model derived properties within the HRUs, (2) correction of concave polygons or polygons with holes inside, (3) segmentation of very large polygons, and (4) bad estimations of units' perimeter and distances among them. The improvement process was applied and tested using two small catchments in France. The improvement of the spatial discretization was further assessed by comparing the representation and arrangement of overland flow paths in the original and improved meshes. Overall, a more realistic physical representation was obtained with the improved meshes, which should enhance the computation of surface and sub-surface flows in a hydrologic model.

  17. Conceptual models used in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Wardle, M G; Mandle, C L

    1989-02-01

    Nurses' difficulties in articulation of conceptual models may be due to several factors--not the least of which are the existence of discrete theories for each area of nursing specialization, dissociation in curricula of theory from practice, a holistic conceptual framework that may be inadequately defined at the process level, and an impulse toward idealism on the part of the nurses themselves. These observations challenge both the theorists and the practitioners of modern nursing to describe more clearly the definition of quality for the science and art of nursing. Nurses are beginning to grasp the idea of holism. It is not the summation of parts to make a whole. Holism is the identification of life patterns, which are reflective of the whole. Nurses in practice and research are starting to create methods of inquiry that portray the wholeness of the autonomous person in continual, dynamic change and exchange with a changing universe. These initial explorations are leading to the evolution of the concepts of person, environment, and health into a distinctive theoretical base for nursing practice. In practice, research, and education, nurses must be committed to excellent, current descriptions of these human life patterns.

  18. On the Performance of Alternate Conceptual Ecohydrological Models for Streamflow Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naseem, Bushra; Ajami, Hoori; Cordery, Ian; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    A merging of a lumped conceptual hydrological model with two conceptual dynamic vegetation models is presented to assess the performance of these models for simultaneous simulations of streamflow and leaf area index (LAI). Two conceptual dynamic vegetation models with differing representation of ecological processes are merged with a lumped conceptual hydrological model (HYMOD) to predict catchment scale streamflow and LAI. The merged RR-LAI-I model computes relative leaf biomass based on transpiration rates while the RR-LAI-II model computes above ground green and dead biomass based on net primary productivity and water use efficiency in response to soil moisture dynamics. To assess the performance of these models, daily discharge and 8-day MODIS LAI product for 27 catchments of 90 - 1600km2 in size located in the Murray - Darling Basin in Australia are used. Our results illustrate that when single-objective optimisation was focussed on maximizing the objective function for streamflow or LAI, the other un-calibrated predicted outcome (LAI if streamflow is the focus) was consistently compromised. Thus, single-objective optimization cannot take into account the essence of all processes in the conceptual ecohydrological models. However, multi-objective optimisation showed great strength for streamflow and LAI predictions. Both response outputs were better simulated by RR-LAI-II than RR-LAI-I due to better representation of physical processes such as net primary productivity (NPP) in RR-LAI-II. Our results highlight that simultaneous calibration of streamflow and LAI using a multi-objective algorithm proves to be an attractive tool for improved streamflow predictions.

  19. Hydrology

    Treesearch

    Mark H. Eisenbies; W. Brian Hughes

    2000-01-01

    Hydrologic processes are the main determinants of the type of wetland located on a site. Precipitation, groundwater, or flooding interact with soil properties and geomorphic setting to yield a complex matrix of conditions that control groundwater flux, water storage and discharge, water chemistry, biotic produvtivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycling....

  20. Inter-comparison of experimental catchment data and hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Ibbitt, Richard; Srinivasan, M. S.; Shankar, Ude

    2017-07-01

    Hydrological models account for the storage, flow of water and water balance in a catchment, including exchanges of water and energy with the ground, atmosphere and oceans. Because of the need to simplify hydrological models, parameters are often included to help with modelling hydrological processes. Generally the parameters of lumped, semi or distributed hydrological models depend on the values estimated at a gauged location, generally at outlet of the catchment (mostly using discharge). In this approach it is hard to judge how well a model represents internal catchment processes of the hydrological cycle as well as also ignoring the spatial heterogeneity of the catchment. The purpose of the paper is to assess, and potentially improve, the ability of a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model, TopNet, using a spatially and temporally detailed set of field measurements of catchment responses to diverse weather conditions. The TopNet rainfall-runoff model was applied to the Waipara catchment located in the South Island of New Zealand. Observations from field experiments were compared with the simulation results of uncalibrated TopNet model. The total amount of simulated runoff showed reasonable agreement with observations. However, the model overestimated baseflow and underestimated surface flow. The results show that soil moisture variation within the catchment is well represented by the model. However, comparison of the observed water balance with model results show that there is a deficiency in the calculation of evapotranspiration.

  1. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  2. Conceptual Fuselage Design with Direct CAD Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Benjamin K.

    In today's day and age, the use of automated technology is becoming increasingly prevalent. Throughout the aerospace industry, we see the use of automated systems in manufacturing, testing, and, progressively, in design. This thesis focuses on the idea of automated structural design that can be directly coupled with parametric Computer-Aided Drafting (CAD) and used to support aircraft conceptual design. This idea has been around for many years; however, with the advancement of CAD technology, it is becoming more realistic. Having the ability to input design parameters, analyze the structure, and produce a basic CAD model not only saves time in the design process but provides an excellent platform to communicate ideas. The user has the ability to change parameters and quickly determine the effect on the structure. Coupling this idea with automated parametric CAD provides visual verification and a platform to export into Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for further verification.

  3. The quest for knowledge: to what extent can transparent modelling methodologies extract useful hydrological information?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Ghani, N. Ab; Shamseldin, A. Y.

    2009-04-01

    The capabilities of two transparent modelling methodologies to extract useful hydrological information is reported. Experimental emulators were constructed in a controlled environment that comprised digital inputs and outputs for a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model: the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model (Zhao et al., 1980; Zhao, 1992). This model was designed for use in humid or semi-humid regions and is based on the concept of runoff formation on repletion of storage i.e. runoff is not produced until the soil moisture content of the aeration zone reaches field storage capacity and thereafter runoff equals rainfall excess without further loss. It has been applied with success to large areas including all of the agricultural, pastoral and forested lands [except for the loess] of China (Zhao & Liu, 1995, p.230). The model has a small number of parameters, its structure and components have strong physical meaning, and these factors in combination make it a popular tool for hydrological modelling. Two methods were used to develop a set of transparent emulators: ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and GEP (Gene Expression Programming). The simplest form of the conceptual model that required four inputs and had no temporal component was examined. Model inputs comprised a set of uniform random distributions that had been computed in a statistical package and the cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. The potential of each tool to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is evaluated as is the power of each individual method to capture and communicate important aspects of a recognised non-linear hydrological modelling equation.

  4. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayzel, Georgy

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  5. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

  6. HESS Opinions: The complementary merits of competing modelling philosophies in hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, Markus; Clark, Martyn P.

    2017-08-01

    In hydrology, two somewhat competing philosophies form the basis of most process-based models. At one endpoint of this continuum are detailed, high-resolution descriptions of small-scale processes that are numerically integrated to larger scales (e.g. catchments). At the other endpoint of the continuum are spatially lumped representations of the system that express the hydrological response via, in the extreme case, a single linear transfer function. Many other models, developed starting from these two contrasting endpoints, plot along this continuum with different degrees of spatial resolutions and process complexities. A better understanding of the respective basis as well as the respective shortcomings of different modelling philosophies has the potential to improve our models. In this paper we analyse several frequently communicated beliefs and assumptions to identify, discuss and emphasize the functional similarity of the seemingly competing modelling philosophies. We argue that deficiencies in model applications largely do not depend on the modelling philosophy, although some models may be more suitable for specific applications than others and vice versa, but rather on the way a model is implemented. Based on the premises that any model can be implemented at any desired degree of detail and that any type of model remains to some degree conceptual, we argue that a convergence of modelling strategies may hold some value for advancing the development of hydrological models.

  7. Common Research Framework for Global Hydrology Utilizing Various Datasets and Hydrologic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Oki, T.; Kanae, S.; Seto, S.

    2008-12-01

    A flexible research framework is developed for common needs in global hydrological research. This framework consists of five components including input/output (I/O) interfaces, models, analyzers, and publishers. Backbone chassis of this framework is developed using the Python, because it provides functionalities to wrap and integrate other languages. Global hydrologic simulation needs various dataset such as model forcing data, parameter sets, and validation data, and all of them are distributed in different formats. Therefore, I/O interfaces are implemented to handle different dataset uniformly. They does not only support various data format including text, binary, network common data form (netCDF), gridded binary (GRIB), and GTool, but also provide presets for many field/satellite observational datasets. Model part provides modulized models and interface generators for external numerical models. Noah land surface model and Total Runoff Integrated Pathway (TRIP) are modulized, and helper interfaces to manage an environment of numerical simulation projects including atmospheric and hydrologic models. The analyzer part and publisher consists of many small snippets and utilities to manipulate data with graphical user interface and to publish data on web or so. For computational efficiency, most of base components are written in native compiler languages such as Fortran and C with a wrapping tool F2py, and the Python array calculation module Numpy and plotting module matplotlib are heavily used. This framework solves many difficulties dramatically reducing required time and effort to prepare simulation and process result in the research of global hydrology.

  8. Calibration of GEOtop for a Mountainous Watershed—a Hydrological Land-Surface Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullhart, A. T.; Kelleners, T.

    2015-12-01

    GEOtop is a distributed finite-difference hydrological land-surface model with a built-in snow evolution package. Ongoing model calibrations and solutions are presented for a very small, low-order watershed within a forested mountain range at ~10,000 ft. elevation. The catchment has a hydrological budget that is dominated by snow input. During model calibration, potential configurations for spatial discretization and resolution are tested by comparison to field measurements—as are alternative soil properties and surface runoff parameters. Also demonstrated is the effect of variable geomorphology as it relates to the energy budget and the subsequent distribution of modeled outputs. Within the larger scope of the WYCEHG research group (i.e. The Wyoming Center for Environmental Hydrology and Geophysics), which works towards a multi-disciplinary approach to field modeling, additional complexities beyond stream flow and soil moisture can be conceptualized and tested based on measurements of snowpacks, evapotranspiration, and geophysical imaging. A combination of these give a better understanding of critical components of the hydrological balance—some of which are in states of flux, e.g., tree cover (due to beetle-kill), and future climate change scenarios.

  9. Precipitation-centered Conceptual Model for Sub-humid Uplands in Lampasas Cut Plains, TX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potter, S. R.; Tu, M.; Wilcox, B. P.

    2011-12-01

    Conceptual understandings of dominant hydrological processes, system interactions and feedbacks, and external forcings operating within catchments often defy simple definition and explanation, especially catchments encompassing transition zones, degraded landscapes, rapid development, and where climate forcings exhibit large variations across time and space. However, it is precisely those areas for which understanding and knowledge are most needed to innovate sustainable management strategies and counter past management blunders and failed restoration efforts. The cut plain of central Texas is one such area. Complex geographic and climatic factors lead to spatially and temporally variable precipitation having frequent dry periods interrupted by intense high-volume precipitation. Fort Hood, an army post located in the southeast cut plain contains landscapes ranging from highly degraded to nearly pristine with a topography mainly comprised of flat-topped mesas separated by broad u-shaped valleys. To understand the hydrology of the area and responses to wet-dry cycles we analyzed 4-years of streamflow and rainfall from 8 catchments, sized between 1819 and 16,000 ha. Since aquifer recharge/discharge and surface stream-groundwater interactions are unimportant, we hypothesized a simple conceptual model driven by precipitation and radiative forcings and having stormflow, baseflow, ET, and two hypothetical storage components. The key storage component was conceptualized as a buffer that was highly integrated with the ET component and exerted controls on baseflow. Radiative energy controlled flux from the buffer to ET. We used the conceptual model in making a bimonthly hydrologic budget, which included buffer volumes and a deficit-surplus indicator. Through the analysis, we were led to speculate that buffer capacity plays key roles in these landscapes and even relatively minor changes in capacity, due to soil compaction for example, might lead to ecological shifts. The

  10. OpenDA-WFLOW framework for improving hydrologic predictions using distributed hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Kockx, Arno; Hummel, Stef

    2017-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions (Liu et al., 2012) and increase the potential for early warning and/or smart water management. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not yet been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. The objective of this work is to highlight the development of a generic linkage of the open source OpenDA package and the open source community hydrologic modeling framework Openstreams/WFLOW and its application in operational hydrological forecasting on various spatial scales. The coupling between OpenDA and Openstreams/wflow framework is based on the emerging standard Basic Model Interface (BMI) as advocated by CSDMS using cross-platform webservices (i.e. Apache Thrift) developed by Hut et al. (2016). The potential application of the OpenDA-WFLOW for operational hydrologic forecasting including its integration with Delft-FEWS (used by more than 40 operational forecast centers around the world (Werner et al., 2013)) is demonstrated by the presented case studies. We will also highlight the possibility to give real-time insight into the working of the DA methods applied for supporting the forecaster as mentioned as one of the burning issues by Liu et al., (2012).

  11. The Aircraft Availability Model: Conceptual Framework and Mathematics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-06-01

    THE AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY MODEL: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND MATHEMATICS June 1983 T. J. O’Malley Prepared pursuant to Department of Defense Contract No...OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED The Aircraft Availability Model: Model Documentation Conceptual Framework and Mathematics 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER

  12. NADM Conceptual Model 1.0 -- A Conceptual Model for Geologic Map Information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2004-01-01

    Executive Summary -- The NADM Data Model Design Team was established in 1999 by the North American Geologic Map Data Model Steering Committee (NADMSC) with the purpose of drafting a geologic map data model for consideration as a standard for developing interoperable geologic map-centered databases by state, provincial, and federal geological surveys. The model is designed to be a technology-neutral conceptual model that can form the basis for a web-based interchange format using evolving information technology (e.g., XML, RDF, OWL), and guide implementation of geoscience databases in a common conceptual framework. The intended purpose is to allow geologic information sharing between geologic map data providers and users, independent of local information system implementation. The model emphasizes geoscience concepts and relationships related to information presented on geologic maps. Design has been guided by an informal requirements analysis, documentation of existing databases, technology developments, and other standardization efforts in the geoscience and computer-science communities. A key aspect of the model is the notion that representation of the conceptual framework (ontology) that underlies geologic map data must be part of the model, because this framework changes with time and understanding, and varies between information providers. The top level of the model distinguishes geologic concepts, geologic representation concepts, and metadata. The geologic representation part of the model provides a framework for representing the ontology that underlies geologic map data through a controlled vocabulary, and for establishing the relationships between this vocabulary and a geologic map visualization or portrayal. Top-level geologic classes in the model are Earth material (substance), geologic unit (parts of the Earth), geologic age, geologic structure, fossil, geologic process, geologic relation, and geologic event.

  13. Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

    2000-01-01

    Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

  14. Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, Martyn P.; Fan, Ying; Lawrence, David M.; Adam, Jennifer C.; Bolster, Diogo; Gochis, David J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Kumar, Mukesh; Leung, L. Ruby; Mackay, D. Scott; Maxwell, Reed M.; Shen, Chaopeng; Swenson, Sean C.; Zeng, Xubin

    2015-08-21

    Many of the scientific and societal challenges in understanding and preparing for global environmental change rest upon our ability to understand and predict the water cycle change at large river basin, continent, and global scales. However, current large-scale models, such as the land components of Earth System Models (ESMs), do not yet represent the terrestrial water cycle in a fully integrated manner or resolve the finer-scale processes that can dominate large-scale water budgets. This paper reviews the current representation of hydrologic processes in ESMs and identifies the key opportunities for improvement. This review suggests that (1) the development of ESMs has not kept pace with modeling advances in hydrology, both through neglecting key processes (e.g., groundwater) and neglecting key aspects of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity; and (2) many modeling advances in hydrology can readily be incorporated into ESMs and substantially improve predictions of the water cycle. Accelerating modeling advances in ESMs requires comprehensive hydrologic benchmarking activities, in order to systematically evaluate competing modeling alternatives, understand model weaknesses, and prioritize model development needs. This demands stronger collaboration, both through greater engagement of hydrologists in ESM development and through more detailed evaluation of ESM processes in research watersheds. Advances in the representation of hydrologic process in ESMs can substantially improve energy, carbon and nutrient cycle prediction capabilities through the fundamental role the water cycle plays in regulating these cycles.

  15. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  16. Ecohydrologic Response of a Wetland Indicator Species to Climate Change and Streamflow Regulation: A Conceptual Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, E. M.; Gorelick, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. Delta ecohydrology is expected to respond rapidly to upstream water demand and climate change, with earlier spring meltwater, decreased springtime peak flow, and a decline in springtime ice-jam flooding. We focus on changes in the population and distribution of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), an ecohydrologic indicator species. We present a conceptual model linking hydrology and muskrat ecology. Our conceptual model links seven modules representing (1) upstream water demand, (2) streamflow and snowmelt, (3) floods, (4) the water balance of floodplain lakes, (5) muskrat habitat suitability, (6) wetland vegetation, and (7) muskrat population dynamics predicted using an agent-based model. Our goal is to evaluate the effects of different climate change and upstream water demand scenarios on the abundance and distribution of Delta muskrat, from present-2100. Moving from the current conceptual model to a predictive quantitative model, we will rely on abundant existing data and Traditional Ecological Knowledge of muskrat and hydrology in the Delta.

  17. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-01-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) driven by Global Climate Models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using 6 GHMs and 5 GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a 2-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to envelope the overall uncertainty range and the need for improvements in modeling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes.

  18. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  19. ENHANCING HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM - FORTRAN MODEL CHANNEL HYDRAULIC REPRESENTATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Hydrological Simulation Program– FORTRAN (HSPF) is a comprehensive watershed model that employs depth-area - volume - flow relationships known as the hydraulic function table (FTABLE) to represent the hydraulic characteristics of stream channel cross-sections and reservoirs. ...

  20. Consistency between hydrological models and field observations: Linking processes at the hillslope scale to hydrological responses at the watershed scale

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Rupp, D.E.; Woods, R.A.; Tromp-van, Meerveld; Peters, N.E.; Freer, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to identify simple connections between observations of hydrological processes at the hillslope scale and observations of the response of watersheds following rainfall, with a view to building a parsimonious model of catchment processes. The focus is on the well-studied Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), Georgia, USA. Recession analysis of discharge Q shows that while the relationship between dQ/dt and Q is approximately consistent with a linear reservoir for the hillslope, there is a deviation from linearity that becomes progressively larger with increasing spatial scale. To account for these scale differences conceptual models of streamflow recession are defined at both the hillslope scale and the watershed scale, and an assessment made as to whether models at the hillslope scale can be aggregated to be consistent with models at the watershed scale. Results from this study show that a model with parallel linear reservoirs provides the most plausible explanation (of those tested) for both the linear hillslope response to rainfall and non-linear recession behaviour observed at the watershed outlet. In this model each linear reservoir is associated with a landscape type. The parallel reservoir model is consistent with both geochemical analyses of hydrological flow paths and water balance estimates of bedrock recharge. Overall, this study demonstrates that standard approaches of using recession analysis to identify the functional form of storage-discharge relationships identify model structures that are inconsistent with field evidence, and that recession analysis at multiple spatial scales can provide useful insights into catchment behaviour. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  2. Modelling hydrological management for the restoration of acidified floating fens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dekker, Stefan C.; Barendregt, Aat; Bootsma, Margien C.; Schot, Paul P.

    2005-12-01

    Wetlands show a large decline in biodiversity. To protect and restore this biodiversity, many restoration projects are carried out. Hydrology in wetlands controls the chemical and biological processes and may be the most important factor regulating wetland function and development. Hydrological models may be used to simulate these processes and to evaluate management scenarios for restoration. HYDRUS2D, a combined saturated-unsaturated groundwater flow and transport model, is presented. This simulates near-surface hydrological processes in an acidified floating fen, with the aim to evaluate the effect of hydrological restoration in terms of conditions for biodiversity. In the acidified floating fen in the nature reserve Ilperveld (The Netherlands), a trench system was dug for the purpose of creating a runoff channel for acid rainwater in wet periods and to enable circum-neutral surface water to enter the fen in dry periods. The model is calibrated against measured conductivity values for a 5 year period. From the model simulations, it was found that lateral flow in the floating raft is limited. Furthermore, the model shows that the best management option is a combination of trenches and inundation, which gave the best soil water quality in the root zone. It is concluded that hydrological models can be used for the calculation of management scenarios in restoration projects. The combined saturated-unsaturated model concept used in this paper is able to incorporate the governing hydrological processes in the wetland root zones. Copyright

  3. Modelling hydrological processes and dissolved organic carbon dynamics in a rehabilitated Sphagnum-dominated peatland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernard-Jannin, Léonard; Binet, Stéphane; Gogo, Sébastien; Leroy, Fabien; Perdereau, Laurent; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima

    2017-04-01

    exports at the peatland scale before and after the restoration. This simple conceptual model requires few data to operate. Its application on different sites with contrasted settings (hydrological and climatic conditions) could provide insight on the dominant hydrological processes and their impact on DOC dynamics in peatlands. Binet S., Gogo S., Laggoun-Défarge F., A water-table dependent reservoir model to investigate the effect of drought and vascular plant invasion on peatland hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 499, 30 August 2013, Pages 132-139, ISSN 0022-1694, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.035.

  4. Publishing and sharing of hydrologic models through WaterHUB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.; Song, C.; Zhao, L.; Kim, J.; Assi, A.

    2011-12-01

    Most hydrologists use hydrologic models to simulate the hydrologic processes to understand hydrologic pathways and fluxes for research, decision making and engineering design. Once these tasks are complete including publication of results, the models generally are not published or made available to the public for further use and improvement. Although publication or sharing of models is not required for journal publications, sharing of models may open doors for new collaborations, and avoids duplication of efforts if other researchers are interested in simulating a particular watershed for which a model already exists. For researchers, who are interested in sharing models, there are limited avenues to publishing their models to the wider community. Towards filling this gap, a prototype cyberinfrastructure (CI), called WaterHUB, is developed for sharing hydrologic data and modeling tools in an interactive environment. To test the utility of WaterHUB for sharing hydrologic models, a system to publish and share SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is developed. Users can utilize WaterHUB to search and download existing SWAT models, and also upload new SWAT models. Metadata such as the name of the watershed, name of the person or agency who developed the model, simulation period, time step, and list of calibrated parameters also published with individual model.

  5. Conceptual Model of Water Resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mack, Thomas J.; Akbari, M. Amin; Ashoor, M. Hanif; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Litke, David W.; Michel, Robert L.; Plummer, L. Niel; Rezai, M. Taher; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Geological Survey has been working with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resources investigations in the Kabul Basin under an agreement supported by the United States Agency for International Development. This collaborative investigation compiled, to the extent possible in a war-stricken country, a varied hydrogeologic data set and developed limited data-collection networks to assist with the management of water resources in the Kabul Basin. This report presents the results of a multidisciplinary water-resources assessment conducted between 2005 and 2007 to address questions of future water availability for a growing population and of the potential effects of climate change. Most hydrologic and climatic data-collection activities in Afghanistan were interrupted in the early 1980s as a consequence of war and civil strife and did not resume until 2003 or later. Because of the gap of more than 20 years in the record of hydrologic and climatic observations, this investigation has made considerable use of remotely sensed data and, where available, historical records to investigate the water resources of the Kabul Basin. Specifically, this investigation integrated recently acquired remotely sensed data and satellite imagery, including glacier and climatic data; recent climate-change analyses; recent geologic investigations; analysis of streamflow data; groundwater-level analysis; surface-water- and groundwater-quality data, including data on chemical and isotopic environmental tracers; and estimates of public-supply and agricultural water uses. The data and analyses were integrated by using a simplified groundwater-flow model to test the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to assess current (2007) and future (2057) water availability. Recharge in the basin is spatially and temporally variable and generally occurs near streams and irrigated areas in the late winter and early

  6. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  7. Combinations of specilaized conceptual and neural network rainfall-runoff models: comparison of performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2013-04-01

    A single hydrological model (process-based or data driven) might not equally well describe the characteristic of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship. One possibility here is building several specialized (local) models which can be specifically oriented at a particular process in the same model structure and combining them using weighting scheme the result can be called a multi-model, or a committee model. In this approach first we build the individual specialized models which are mainly calibrated on various regimes corresponding to hydrological sub-processes for example, low flow and high flow, and combining their outputs using the ideas of a fuzzy membership with various parameterisations. This experiment explores the several committee models of specialized hydrological models [1, 2] which are employed for rainfall-runoff model prediction. Comparison of three committee models are demonstrated which constructed from specialized models: (1) processes-based conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model (CRRM) (2) rainfall-runoff model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and (3) combination of CRRM and ANN. The weights assigned to each specialized model's output are based on fuzzy membership functions which are different at every time step depending on the current value of flow. Comparison results indicated that committee model CRRM-ANN built from the high flow HBV model and low flow ANN model outperformed other models. Bagmati catchment in Nepal and Leaf catchment in USA are considered as case studies. [1] Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P., Savenije, H. H. G. and Matgen, P. Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1797-1809, Special Issue "Data-driven approaches, optimization and model integration: hydrological applications", R. Abrahart, L. See, D. Solomatine, and E. Toth (eds.), 2007. [2] Kayastha N., J. Ye, Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

  8. Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

    1998-01-01

    Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

  9. Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

    1998-01-01

    Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

  10. A spatially distributed hydrologic model utilizing raster data structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Dennis L.; Miller, Arthur C.

    1997-04-01

    A distributed hydrologic model, known as the Terrestrial Hydrologic Model or THM was developed for use with rasterized databases to simulate surface runoff. Computations are performed on a pixel-by-pixel basis and all physical drainage basin properties including area, slope, stream length, and stream order are obtained or estimated from a digital elevation model (DEM). Other data sets, such as curve numbers or infiltration rates, are required for estimating the hydrologic abstractions. Precipitation is supplied in the form of gage input, uniform distributions, or raster data. At the present time, hydrologic abstractions can be estimated by any of three methods: a constant infiltration rate, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method, or solution of the more physically based Green-Ampt equation. Overland flow is computed by a kinematic wave approximation and channel routing is performed using the Muskingum-Cunge method.

  11. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a re-thinking of how we, the catchment hydrologists, could become reliable forecasters. A group of catchment modellers predicted the hydrological response of a man-made 6 ha catchment in its initial phase (Chicken Creek) without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different model families. Their modelling experience differed largely. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the 1st prediction modellers received a basic data set describing the internal structure of the catchment (somewhat more complete than usually available to a priori predictions in ungauged catchments). They did not obtain time series of stream flow, soil moisture or groundwater response. (2) Before the 2nd improved prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and attended a workshop where the modellers presented and discussed their first attempts. (3) For their improved 3rd prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step 1. Here, we detail the modeller's decisions in accounting for the various processes based on what they learned during the field visit (step 2) and add the final outcome of step 3 when the modellers made use of additional data. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the 2nd and 3rd step, the progress in prediction quality could be evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of added information. We learned (i) that soft information such as the modeller's system understanding is as important as the model itself (hard information), (ii) that the sequence of modelling steps matters (field visit, interactions between differently experienced experts, choice of model, selection of available data, and methods for parameter guessing

  12. Multilayer Control Hierarchy in an Integrated Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, J.; Obeysekera, J.; Vanzee, R.

    2005-05-01

    Considerable progress has been made in the functionality of integrated hydrological models which can provide evaluation of anthropogenic control and management policies of water resources. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the coupling and expression of water control policies into hydrological models [1]. The Management Simulation Engine (MSE) component of the Regional Simulation Model (RSM) incorporates a multi-level hierarchical control architecture which emphasizes the decoupling of hydrological state information from the management information processing applied to the states. The MSE is intended to allow a flexible, extensible expression of a wide variety anthropogenic water resource control schemes integrated with the hydrological state evaluations of the RSM. Synergy between the multilayer control hierarchy and decoupled hydrologic state and management information facilitates a water resource management feature set not typical of integrated hydrological models. Some of these features include: interoperation and compatibility of diverse management algorithms such as PID, Fuzzy control, LP; and dynamic switching of control processors. This paper describes the MSE control hierarchy with a focus on the aforementioned features and their implementation. [1] Belaineh, G., Peralta, R. C., Hughes, T. C., Simulation/ Optimization Modeling for Water Resources Management, ASCE Journal Water Resources Planning Management, 125(3), p 154-61, 1999

  13. Reusable Space Vehicle Ground Operations Baseline Conceptual Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-03-01

    REUSABLE SPACE VEHICLE GROUND OPERATIONS BASELINE CONCEPTUAL MODEL THESIS DENNIS R...United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. AFIT/GLM/ENS/04-12 REUSABLE SPACE VEHICLE GROUND...for the next launch. v AFIT/GLM/ENS/04-12 REUSABLE SPACE VEHICLE GROUND OPERATIONS BASELINE CONCEPTUAL MODEL DENNIS R. MAYNARD

  14. Conceptual Model Learning Objects and Design Recommendations for Small Screens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Churchill, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This article presents recommendations for the design of conceptual models for applications via handheld devices such as personal digital assistants and some mobile phones. The recommendations were developed over a number of years through experience that involves design of conceptual models, and applications of these multimedia representations with…

  15. Conceptual Model Learning Objects and Design Recommendations for Small Screens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Churchill, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This article presents recommendations for the design of conceptual models for applications via handheld devices such as personal digital assistants and some mobile phones. The recommendations were developed over a number of years through experience that involves design of conceptual models, and applications of these multimedia representations with…

  16. Showing Automatically Generated Students' Conceptual Models to Students and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perez-Marin, Diana; Pascual-Nieto, Ismael

    2010-01-01

    A student conceptual model can be defined as a set of interconnected concepts associated with an estimation value that indicates how well these concepts are used by the students. It can model just one student or a group of students, and can be represented as a concept map, conceptual diagram or one of several other knowledge representation…

  17. Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    1999-09-01

    Rational decision making (for flood warning, navigation, or reservoir systems) requires that the total uncertainty about a hydrologic predictand (such as river stage, discharge, or runoff volume) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Hydrologic knowledge is typically embodied in a deterministic catchment model. Fundamentals are presented of a Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) for producing a probabilistic forecast of a hydrologic predictand via any deterministic catchment model. The BFS decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty, which are quantified independently and then integrated into a predictive (Bayes) distribution. This distribution results from a revision of a prior (climatic) distribution, is well calibrated, and has a nonnegative ex ante economic value. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and "ensemble forecasting" technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that meets requirements of rational decision making, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

  18. Neural network modelling of non-linear hydrological relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abrahart, R. J.; See, L. M.

    2007-09-01

    Two recent studies have suggested that neural network modelling offers no worthwhile improvements in comparison to the application of weighted linear transfer functions for capturing the non-linear nature of hydrological relationships. The potential of an artificial neural network to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations under controlled conditions is examined in this paper. Eight neural network models were developed: four full or partial emulations of a recognised non-linear hydrological rainfall-runoff model; four solutions developed on an identical set of inputs and a calculated runoff coefficient output. The use of different input combinations enabled the competencies of solutions developed on a reduced number of parameters to be assessed. The selected hydrological model had a limited number of inputs and contained no temporal component. The modelling process was based on a set of random inputs that had a uniform distribution and spanned a modest range of possibilities. The initial cloning operations permitted a direct comparison to be performed with the equation-based relationship. It also provided more general information about the power of a neural network to replicate mathematical equations and model modest non-linear relationships. The second group of experiments explored a different relationship that is of hydrological interest; the target surface contained a stronger set of non-linear properties and was more challenging. Linear modelling comparisons were performed against traditional least squares multiple linear regression solutions developed on identical datasets. The reported results demonstrate that neural networks are capable of modelling non-linear hydrological processes and are therefore appropriate tools for hydrological modelling.

  19. Hydrologic Modeling Strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    The government of Mauritania is interested in how to maintain hydrologic balance to ensure a long-term stable water supply for minerals-related, domestic, and other purposes. Because of the many complicating and competing natural and anthropogenic factors, hydrologists will perform quantitative analysis with specific objectives and relevant computer models in mind. Whereas various computer models are available for studying water-resource priorities, the success of these models to provide reliable predictions largely depends on adequacy of the model-calibration process. Predictive analysis helps us evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty associated with simulated dependent variables of our calibrated model. In this report, the hydrologic modeling process is reviewed and a strategy summarized for future Mauritanian hydrologic modeling studies.

  20. On Correct Likelihoods and Model Combinations: A Bayesian Multi-Model Conceptual Framework for Structural Uncertainty Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehrotra, R.; Smith, T. J.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    The use of data in conceptual hydrologic modeling applications typically occurs on two levels; model driving data/input data (precipitation, evapotranspiration) and model checking data/output data (observed stream outlet discharge). However, the uncertainty of these data limits their ability to inform the choice of a “true” model structure. In this research, we present a framework approach that focuses on the intersect of two primary areas for improved assessment of model structures and their uncertainty: (1) an investigation into multiple model conceptualizations for structural uncertainty assessment and (2) an examination of the use of formal likelihood functions under a Bayesian statistical approach. The use of formal Bayesian methodologies for hydrologic model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is predicated on the selection of an adequate likelihood function, which makes strong assumptions about the form of the model residuals. By better addressing this area of the modeling problem, the analysis of the model structural uncertainty in light of the traditional data sources (precipitation, evapotranspiration, stream discharge) is simplified. In concert with the effort to more appropriately apply the Bayesian approach, the use of multiple conceptual model structures into the analysis deals directly with the objective of better quantifying model structural uncertainty. Previous studies that have addressed the structural uncertainty issue from a multiple model vantage point have found promising results. The findings of this study suggest that improved statistical inference brought about by careful attention to the assumptions of the formal likelihood function combined with analysis of multiple model conceptualizations have the potential to afford a better understanding of model structural uncertainty. An intended outcome of this research, and part of future study, is to produce techniques that prove beneficial for use in regionalization studies for

  1. HESS Opinions ``Classification of hydrological models for flood management"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plate, E. J.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrological models for flood management are components of flood risk management, which is the set of actions to be taken to prevent flood disasters. It is a cyclical process: initiated by occurrence of an extreme flood it leads through the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase to risk assessment and project planning and implementation, and finally to operation and preparedness for a next extreme flood when the cycle starts again. We subdivide the tasks of flood management into two consecutive parts: planning and operation, which basically require different kinds of hydrological models. For planning, real time runoff is not needed, one works with design scenarios. For this task models should be used appropriate to the tasks at hand, which reflect characteristics of landscape as well as of hydrological scale. For operation, hydrological forecast models are needed which have to meet a different set of conditions. In this paper, requirements for hydrological models as functions of application, geology and topography, and of area size are surveyed and classified, as a first approach for guiding users to the correct type of model to be used in a given location. It is suggested that one always should start flood modeling with an analysis of local conditions and select or develop task and locality specific models.

  2. On the importance of hysteresis in hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gharari, S.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Hysteresis is a widely observed phenomenon in hydrology and beyond at a range of spatio-temporal scales. Despite significant research efforts, hysteretic behaviors and their implications for hydrologic modelling and prediction have remained poorly defined and understood. The current state of the art is that almost all practical models in use do not include any hysteretic component or relationship that directly represents such behaviors. In this study, we review different types of hysteretic behaviors in hydrology and formulate a general definition for hysteresis that might be useful in the context of hydrological modeling. We show how hysteresis can be the result of missing (or ignoring) dimensions/physics that govern a real system. Further, using existing strategies for hysteresis modeling from other disciples, we evaluate to what extent the addition of hysteretic components to a hydrological model (such as soil moisture and soil suction head - soil hydraulic conductivity) change the model performance and associated uncertainties. Our analyses also show that properly designed model structures can largely compensate for the lack of hysteretic components in models and allow mimicking the observed hysteretic behaviors.

  3. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  4. A plethora of conceptual models is available: What are the dynamic differences?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

    2017-04-01

    Conceptual models represent the dominant characteristics of various hydrological processes, using stores, fluxes and transformation functions. They are computationally efficient, provide a relatively easy framework to test different hypotheses of the catchment function and have relatively low data requirements. These features tend to result in the need for model calibration during application so keeping complexity low has the benefit of reducing equifinality and parameter identifiability issues. All this has led to a multitude of models being developed that are all different in name, structure, simulated processes and mathematical formulations. Potentially some in-depth knowledge of the catchment is needed to judge the appropriateness of any models overall structure, but this can be hard to acquire or may be unavailable. Currently there is no overview of how prevalent this model structure uncertainty really is and a question thus remains: in a practical sense, how different are the many available versions of seemingly different conceptual model variants? Our goal is to identify if, given the same input data, different models cover different regions in the model output space. We analyse 45 different conceptual models to identify a wide range of model formulations, meaning the combination of structure (which simulated processes are present in the model and how are they connected) and mathematical descriptions of each process. Each model element is allowed to use all its degrees of freedom through Monte Carlo sampling of its parameters. Then, we use pre-determined climate forcing from a global analysis to run each model element with its Monte Carlo parameter sets and summarize its output into a hydrologically relevant output space (e.g. a comparison of runoff signatures). This enables us to investigate questions such as: given the same climate input and no limitations on calibration freedom (1) … is the output space uniformly covered or do models cluster around

  5. Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

  6. Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

    2015-04-01

    The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and

  7. Strategies for using remotely sensed data in hydrologic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peck, E. L.; Keefer, T. N.; Johnson, E. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    Present and planned remote sensing capabilities were evaluated. The usefulness of six remote sensing capabilities (soil moisture, land cover, impervious area, areal extent of snow cover, areal extent of frozen ground, and water equivalent of the snow cover) with seven hydrologic models (API, CREAMS, NWSRFS, STORM, STANFORD, SSARR, and NWSRFS Snowmelt) were reviewed. The results indicate remote sensing information has only limited value for use with the hydrologic models in their present form. With minor modifications to the models the usefulness would be enhanced. Specific recommendations are made for incorporating snow covered area measurements in the NWSRFS Snowmelt model. Recommendations are also made for incorporating soil moisture measurements in NWSRFS. Suggestions are made for incorporating snow covered area, soil moisture, and others in STORM and SSARR. General characteristics of a hydrologic model needed to make maximum use of remotely sensed data are discussed. Suggested goals for improvements in remote sensing for use in models are also established.

  8. A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ambaruch, R.; Salomonson, V. V.; Simmons, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

  9. The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: Calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zyvoloski, G.; Kwicklis, E.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.; Arnold, B.; Faunt, C.; Robinson, B.A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B

  10. The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths.

    PubMed

    Zyvoloski, George; Kwicklis, Edward; Eddebbarh, Al Aziz; Arnold, Bill; Faunt, Claudia; Robinson, Bruce A

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models.

  11. Conceptual model for heart failure disease management.

    PubMed

    Andrikopoulou, Efstathia; Abbate, Kariann; Whellan, David J

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this review is to propose a conceptual model for heart failure (HF) disease management (HFDM) and to define the components of an efficient HFDM plan in reference to this model. Articles that evaluated 1 or more of the following aspects of HFDM were reviewed: (1) outpatient clinic follow-up; (2) self-care interventions to enhance patient skills; and (3) remote evaluation of worsening HF either using structured telephone support (STS) or by monitoring device data (telemonitoring). The success of programs in reducing readmissions and mortality were mixed. Outpatient follow-up programs generally resulted in improved outcomes, including decreased readmissions. Based on 1 meta-analysis, specialty clinics improved outcomes and nonspecialty clinics did not. Results from self-care programs were inconsistent and might have been affected by patient cognitive status and educational level, and intervention intensity. Telemonitoring, despite initially promising meta-analyses demonstrating a decrease in the number and duration of HF-related readmissions and all-cause mortality rates at follow-up, has not been shown in randomized trials to consistently reduce readmissions or mortality. However, evidence from device monitoring trials in particular might have been influenced by technology and design issues that might be rectified in future trials. Results from the literature suggest that the ideal HFDM plan would include outpatient follow-up at an HF specialty clinic and continuous education to improve patient self-care. The end result of this plan would lead to better understanding on the part of the patient and improved patient ability to recognize and respond to signs of decompensation.

  12. Application of SMOS and ASCAT soil moisture estimations to hydrological modelling in Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zlatanovic, Nikola; Ivkovic, Marija; Drobnjak, Aleksandar

    2016-04-01

    This study explores the performance of satellite-based soil moisture products from satellites SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, measuring brightness temperatures in the L-Band at 1.4 GHz) and ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer, measuring surface backscattering coefficients in the C-band at 5.255 GHz) for hydrological application. Firstly, SMOS and ASCAT Level 2 soil moisture data were compared to in situ data over Serbia at available sites. All available in situ ground-based point measurements of soil moisture, from the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and other independent stations, were collected for the overlapping period with satellite observations and compared against remotely sensed satellite-based soil moisture products. Two approaches are presented in this study to evaluate the applicability of satellite-based SMOS and ASCAT soil moisture products to basin-scale hydrological modelling in a case study catchment in Serbia. The first approach was based on a continuous conceptual forecast-based rainfall-runoff model (using distributed HBV model), where satellite-based soil moisture data helped perform corrections to calculated model soil moisture. The second approach analysed individual event-based rainfall-runoff modelling (using HEC-HMS), where initial (pre-event) model parameters were estimated using satellite-based soil moisture data. Both approaches involved calibration of the hydrological models with and without satellite-based soil moisture data on a case study in Serbia.

  13. Multivariate data assimilation in an integrated hydrological modelling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Henrik; Zhang, Donghua; Ridler, Marc; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The immensely increasing availability of in-situ and remotely sensed hydrological data has offered new opportunities for monitoring and forecasting water resources by combining observation data with hydrological modelling. Efficient multivariate data assimilation in integrated groundwater - surface water hydrological modelling systems are required to fully utilize and optimally combine the different types of observation data. A particular challenge is the assimilation of observation data of different hydrological variables from different monitoring instruments, representing a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and different levels of uncertainty. A multivariate data assimilation framework has been implemented in the MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modelling system by linking the MIKE SHE code with a generic data assimilation library. The data assimilation library supports different state-of-the-art ensemble-based Kalman filter methods, and includes procedures for localisation, joint state, parameter and model error estimation, and bias-aware filtering. Furthermore, it supports use of different stochastic error models to describe model and measurement errors. Results are presented that demonstrate the use of the data assimilation framework for assimilation of different data types in a catchment-scale MIKE SHE model.

  14. HESS Opinions "Classification of hydrological models for flood management"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plate, E. J.

    2009-07-01

    Hydrological models for flood management are components of flood risk management, which is the set of actions to be taken to prevent flood disasters. It is a cyclical process: initiated by occurrence of an extreme flood it leads through the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase to risk assessment and project planning and implementation, and finally to operation and preparedness for a next extreme flood when the cycle starts again. We subdivide the tasks of flood management into two consecutive parts: planning and operation, which basically require different kinds of hydrological models. For planning, real time runoff is not needed, one works with design scenarios. For this task models should be used appropriate to the tasks at hand, which reflect characteristics of landscape as well as of hydrological scale. For operation, hydrological forecast models are needed which have to meet a different set of conditions. In this paper, requirements for hydrological models as functions of application, geology and topography, and of area size are surveyed. It is suggested that we always should start flood modeling with an analysis of local conditions and select or develop task and locality specific models.

  15. Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut

    2016-06-01

    Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand

  16. Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

    2014-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall

  17. A Conceptual Model for Water Sensitive City in Surabaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pamungkas, A.; Tucunan, K. P.; Navastara, A.; Idajati, H.; Pratomoatmojo, N. A.

    2017-08-01

    Frequent inundated areas, low quality of water supply, highly dependent water sources from external are some key problems in Surabaya water balance. Many aspects of urban development have stimulated those problems. To uncover the complexity of water balance in Surabaya, a conceptual model for water sensitive city is constructed to find the optimum solution. A system dynamic modeling is utilized to assist and enrich the idea of conceptual model. A secondary analysis to a wide range data directs the process in making a conceptual model. FGD involving many experts from multidiscipline are also used to finalize the conceptual model. Based on those methods, the model has four main sub models that are; flooding, land use change, water demand and water supply. The model consists of 35 key variables illustrating challenges in Surabaya urban water.

  18. Spatial Resolution and Catchment Size Interaction of Soil Hydrological Properties for Hydrological Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Libohova, Zamir; Bowling, Laura C.; Owens, Phillip R.; Schoeneberger, Philip; Wysocki, Douglas; Wills, Skye; Lindbo, David

    2016-04-01

    Spatial resolution of soil hydrologic properties is critical for distributed hydrological model streamflow simulations. Soils from US Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database are mapped at scales varying from 1:12,000 to 65,000. Related to these scales are also soil hydrological properties, which could vary spatially outside of the common SSURGO scale range. The objective of this research was to assess the role of the spatial resolution of soil depth on simulated hydrological response for various watershed sizes using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The study site was Hall Creek watershed a 56 km2 in size located in Dubois County in southern Indiana, USA. The watershed size was divided in 55 sub-watersheds varying in size from less than 5 km2 to 56 km2. The grid size spatial resolution of soil hydrological properties varied from 10x10, 30x30 and 90x90m. The simulated streamflow metrics were annual mean, minimum and maximum streamflow, and R-B Flashiness, which measures the variability in streamflow between successive days highlighting the fluctuation of discharge relative to total discharge. The slopes of the regression of simulated stream discharge parameters versus watershed size were used to assess the presence of interaction. In addition, the coefficient of variation was used to assess the variability for the R-B index, annual mean, annual minimum and maximum stream discharge across different model resolutions within each watershed category. The slope for 10x10 and 30x30m spatial resolution for annual mean, and minimum streamflow were not significantly different from zero across all watershed sizes indicating lack of interaction. However, slope for the R-B flashiness was significantly different from zero for the 90x90 m grid size indicating that watershed size change is sensitive at this spatial resolution. The variability of R-B index, annual mean and annual minimum hydrologic metrics decreased with increasing watershed size but

  19. Stochastic modeling of interannual variation of hydrologic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dralle, David; Karst, Nathaniel; Müller, Marc; Vico, Giulia; Thompson, Sally E.

    2017-07-01

    Quantifying the interannual variability of hydrologic variables (such as annual flow volumes, and solute or sediment loads) is a central challenge in hydrologic modeling. Annual or seasonal hydrologic variables are themselves the integral of instantaneous variations and can be well approximated as an aggregate sum of the daily variable. Process-based, probabilistic techniques are available to describe the stochastic structure of daily flow, yet estimating interannual variations in the corresponding aggregated variable requires consideration of the autocorrelation structure of the flow time series. Here we present a method based on a probabilistic streamflow description to obtain the interannual variability of flow-derived variables. The results provide insight into the mechanistic genesis of interannual variability of hydrologic processes. Such clarification can assist in the characterization of ecosystem risk and uncertainty in water resources management. We demonstrate two applications, one quantifying seasonal flow variability and the other quantifying net suspended sediment export.

  20. Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schimel, David S.

    1992-01-01

    Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

  1. Use of different sampling schemes in machine learning-based prediction of hydrological models' uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri; Lal Shrestha, Durga; van Griensven, Ann

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, a lot of attention in the hydrologic literature is given to model parameter uncertainty analysis. The robustness estimation of uncertainty depends on the efficiency of sampling method used to generate the best fit responses (outputs) and on ease of use. This paper aims to investigate: (1) how sampling strategies effect the uncertainty estimations of hydrological models, (2) how to use this information in machine learning predictors of models uncertainty. Sampling of parameters may employ various algorithms. We compared seven different algorithms namely, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), partical swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO) [1]. These methods were applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflow simulation using conceptual model HBV and Semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT. Nzoia catchment in West Kenya is considered as the case study. The results are compared and analysed based on the shape of the posterior distribution of parameters, uncertainty results on model outputs. The MLUE method [2] uses results of Monte Carlo sampling (or any other sampling shceme) to build a machine learning (regression) model U able to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a hydrological model H outputs. Inputs to these models are specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train such a model U, which leads to several models (and there is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison). A solution could be to form a committee of all models U and

  2. Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

    2015-04-01

    This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

  3. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  4. A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological model nonstationarity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Thyer, Mark; Leonard, Michael; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lambert, Martin

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents a strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological nonstationarity, aiming to improve hydrological models and their predictive ability under changing hydroclimatic conditions. The strategy consists of four elements: (i) detecting potential systematic errors in the calibration data; (ii) hypothesizing a set of "nonstationary" parameterizations of existing hydrological model structures, where one or more parameters vary in time as functions of selected covariates; (iii) trialing alternative stationary model structures to assess whether parameter nonstationarity can be reduced by modifying the model structure; and (iv) selecting one or more models for prediction. The Scott Creek catchment in South Australia and the lumped hydrological model GR4J are used to illustrate the strategy. Streamflow predictions improve significantly when the GR4J parameter describing the maximum capacity of the production store is allowed to vary in time as a combined function of: (i) an annual sinusoid; (ii) the previous 365 day rainfall and potential evapotranspiration; and (iii) a linear trend. This improvement provides strong evidence of model nonstationarity. Based on a range of hydrologically oriented diagnostics such as flow-duration curves, the GR4J model structure was modified by introducing an additional calibration parameter that controls recession behavior and by making actual evapotranspiration dependent only on catchment storage. Model comparison using an information-theoretic measure (the Akaike Information Criterion) and several hydrologically oriented diagnostics shows that the GR4J modifications clearly improve predictive performance in Scott Creek catchment. Based on a comparison of 22 versions of GR4J with different representations of nonstationarity and other modifications, the model selection approach applied in the exploratory period (used for parameter estimation) correctly identifies models that perform well in a much drier independent

  5. Models for hydrologic design of evapotranspiration landfill covers.

    PubMed

    Hauser, Victor L; Gimon, Dianna M; Bonta, James V; Howell, Terry A; Malone, Robert W; Williams, Jimmy R

    2005-09-15

    The technology used in landfill covers is changing, and an alternative cover called the evapotranspiration (ET) landfill cover is coming into use. Important design requirements are prescribed by Federal rules and regulations for conventional landfill covers but not for ET landfill covers. There is no accepted hydrologic model for ET landfill cover design. This paper describes ET cover requirements and design issues, and assesses the accuracy of the EPIC and HELP hydrologic models when used for hydrologic design of ET covers. We tested the models against high-quality field measurements available from lysimeters maintained by the Agricultural Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture at Coshocton, Ohio, and Bushland, Texas. The HELP model produced substantial errors in estimating hydrologic variables. The EPIC model estimated ET and deep percolation with errors less than 7% and 5%, respectively, and accurately matched extreme events with an error of less than 2% of precipitation. The EPIC model is suitable for use in hydrologic design of ET landfill covers.

  6. Using Conceptual Change Theories to Model Position Concepts in Astronomy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Chiang; Hung, Jeng-Fung

    2012-01-01

    The roles of conceptual change and model building in science education are very important and have a profound and wide effect on teaching science. This study examines the change in children's position concepts after instruction, based on different conceptual change theories. Three classes were chosen and divided into three groups, including a…

  7. Thoughts about conceptual models, theories, and quality improvement projects.

    PubMed

    Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2014-10-01

    This essay focuses on how a conceptual model of nursing can be the basis for identification of the phenomenon of interest for a quality improvement project and how a theory of quality improvement or a theory of change is the methodological guide for the project. An explanation and examples of conceptual-theoretical-empirical structures for quality improvement projects are given.

  8. Model of Conceptual Change for INQPRO: A Bayesian Network Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ting, Choo-Yee; Sam, Yok-Cheng; Wong, Chee-Onn

    2013-01-01

    Constructing a computational model of conceptual change for a computer-based scientific inquiry learning environment is difficult due to two challenges: (i) externalizing the variables of conceptual change and its related variables is difficult. In addition, defining the causal dependencies among the variables is also not trivial. Such difficulty…

  9. Model of Conceptual Change for INQPRO: A Bayesian Network Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ting, Choo-Yee; Sam, Yok-Cheng; Wong, Chee-Onn

    2013-01-01

    Constructing a computational model of conceptual change for a computer-based scientific inquiry learning environment is difficult due to two challenges: (i) externalizing the variables of conceptual change and its related variables is difficult. In addition, defining the causal dependencies among the variables is also not trivial. Such difficulty…

  10. Subjective modelling decisions significantly impact the simulation of hydrological extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Mendoza, Pablo; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2017-04-01

    It is generally acknowledged in the environmental sciences that the choice of a computational model impacts the research results. We have showed, with an example of hydrological modelling of floods and drought, that modelling decisions during the model configuration, beyond the model choice, also impact the model results. In our carefully designed experiment we investigated four modelling decisions in ten nested basins: the spatial resolution of the model, the spatial representation of the forcing data, the calibration period, and the performance metric. The simulation of both hydrological extremes was affected by the four modelling decisions, with differing significance and magnitude. The flood characteristics were mainly affected by the performance metric, whereas the drought characteristics were mainly affected by the calibration period. Modelling decisions during model configuration introduce subjectivity from the modeller. Multiple working hypotheses during model configuration can provide insights on the impact of such subjective modelling decisions.

  11. Numerical daemons in hydrological modeling: Effects on uncertainty assessment, sensitivity analysis and model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavetski, D.; Clark, M. P.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologists often face sources of uncertainty that dwarf those normally encountered in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Especially when representing large scale integrated systems, internal heterogeneities such as stream networks, preferential flowpaths, vegetation, etc, are necessarily represented with a considerable degree of lumping. The inputs to these models are themselves often the products of sparse observational networks. Given the simplifications inherent in environmental models, especially lumped conceptual models, does it really matter how they are implemented? At the same time, given the complexities usually found in the response surfaces of hydrological models, increasingly sophisticated analysis methodologies are being proposed for sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration and uncertainty assessment. Quite remarkably, rather than being caused by the model structure/equations themselves, in many cases model analysis complexities are consequences of seemingly trivial aspects of the model implementation - often, literally, whether the start-of-step or end-of-step fluxes are used! The extent of problems can be staggering, including (i) degraded performance of parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis algorithms, (ii) erroneous and/or misleading conclusions of sensitivity analysis, parameter inference and model interpretations and, finally, (iii) poor reliability of a calibrated model in predictive applications. While the often nontrivial behavior of numerical approximations has long been recognized in applied mathematics and in physically-oriented fields of environmental sciences, it remains a problematic issue in many environmental modeling applications. Perhaps detailed attention to numerics is only warranted for complicated engineering models? Would not numerical errors be an insignificant component of total uncertainty when typical data and model approximations are present? Is this really a serious issue beyond some rare isolated

  12. Hydrologic consistency as a basis for assessing complexity of monthly water balance models for the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Guillermo F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

    2011-12-01

    Methods to select parsimonious and hydrologically consistent model structures are useful for evaluating dominance of hydrologic processes and representativeness of data. While information criteria (appropriately constrained to obey underlying statistical assumptions) can provide a basis for evaluating appropriate model complexity, it is not sufficient to rely upon the principle of maximum likelihood (ML) alone. We suggest that one must also call upon a "principle of hydrologic consistency," meaning that selected ML structures and parameter estimates must be constrained (as well as possible) to reproduce desired hydrological characteristics of the processes under investigation. This argument is demonstrated in the context of evaluating the suitability of candidate model structures for lumped water balance modeling across the continental United States, using data from 307 snow-free catchments. The models are constrained to satisfy several tests of hydrologic consistency, a flow space transformation is used to ensure better consistency with underlying statistical assumptions, and information criteria are used to evaluate model complexity relative to the data. The results clearly demonstrate that the principle of consistency provides a sensible basis for guiding selection of model structures and indicate strong spatial persistence of certain model structures across the continental United States. Further work to untangle reasons for model structure predominance can help to relate conceptual model structures to physical characteristics of the catchments, facilitating the task of prediction in ungaged basins.

  13. Impact of improved snowmelt modelling in a monthly hydrological model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folton, Nathalie; Garcia, Florine

    2016-04-01

    The quantification and the management of water resources at the regional scale require hydrological models that are both easy to implement and efficient. To be reliable and robust, these models must be calibrated and validated on a large number of catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological conditions, physiographic contexts, and specific hydrological behavior (e.g. mountainous catchments). The GRLoiEau monthly model, with its simple structure and its two free parameters, answer our need of such a simple model. It required the development of a snow routine to model catchments with temporarily snow-covered areas. The snow routine developed here does not claim to represent physical snowmelt processes but rather to simulate them globally on the catchment. The snowmelt equation is based on the degree-day method which is widely used by the hydrological community, in particular in engineering studies (Etchevers 2000). A potential snowmelt (Schaefli et al. 2005) was computed, and the parameters of the snow routine were regionalized for each mountain area. The GRLoiEau parsimonious structure requires meteorological data. They come from the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system SAFRAN, which provides estimations of daily solid and liquid precipitations and temperatures on a regular square grid at the spatial resolution of 8*8 km², throughout France. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the formula by Oudin et al. (2005). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of monthly simulations for ungauged basins, in particular for all types of mountain catchments, without increasing the number of free parameters of the model. By using daily SAFRAN data, the production store and snowmelt can be run at a daily time scale. The question then arises whether simulating the monthly flows using a production function at a finer time step would improve the results. And by using the SAFRAN distributed climate series, a distributed approach

  14. Top-down methodology for rainfall-runoff modelling and evaluation of hydrological extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    A top-down methodology is presented for implementation and calibration of a lumped conceptual catchment rainfall-runoff model that aims to produce high model performance (depending on the quality and availability of data) in terms of rainfall-runoff discharges for the full range from low to high discharges, including the peak and low flow extremes. The model is to be used to support water engineering applications, which most often deal with high and low flows as well as cumulative runoff volumes. With this application in mind, the paper wants to contribute to the above-mentioned problems and advancements on model evaluation, model-structure selection, the overparameterization problem and the long time the modeller needs to invest or the difficulties one encounters when building and calibrating a lumped conceptual model for a river catchment. The methodology is an empirical and step-wise technique that includes examination of the various model components step by step through a data-based analysis of response characteristics. The approach starts from a generalized lumped conceptual model structure. In this structure, only the general components of a lumped conceptual model, such as the existence of storage and routing elements, and their inter-links, are pre-defined. The detailed specifications on model equations and parameters are supported by advanced time series analysis of the empirical response between the rainfall and evapotranspiration inputs and the river flow output. Subresponses are separated and submodel components and related subsets of parameters are calibrated as independently as possible. At the same time, the model-structure identification process aims to reach parsimonious submodel-structures, and accounts for the serial dependency of runoff values, which typically is higher for low flows than for high flows. It also accounts for the heteroscedasticity and dependency of model residuals when evaluating the model performance. It is shown that this step

  15. Operational use of distributed hydrological models. Experiences and challenges at a Norwegian hydropower company (Agder Energi).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viggo Matheussen, Bernt; Andresen, Arne; Weisser, Claudia

    2014-05-01

    The Scandinavian hydropower industry has traditionally adopted the lumped conceptual hydrological model - HBV, as the tool for producing forecasts of inflows and mountain snow packs. Such forecasting systems - based on lumped conceptual models - have several drawbacks. Firstly, a lumped model does not produce spatial data, and comparisons with remote sensed snow cover data (which are now available) are complicated. Secondly, several climate parameters such as wind speed are now becoming more available and can potentially improve forecasts due to improved estimates of precipitation gauge efficiency, and more physically correct calculation of turbulent heat fluxes. At last, when the number of catchments increases, it is cumbersome and slow to run multiple hydrology models compared to running one model for all catchments. With the drawbacks of the lumped hydrology models in mind, and with inspiration from other forecasting systems using distributed models, Agder Energy decided to develop a forecasting system applying a physically based distributed model. In this paper we describe an operational inflow and snowpack forecast system developed for the Scandinavian mountain range. The system applies a modern macroscale land surface hydrology model (VIC) which in combination with historical climate data and weather predictions can be used to produce both short-term, and seasonal forecasts of inflow and mountain snowpack. Experiences with the forecast system are illustrated using results from individual subcatchments as well as aggregated regional forecasts of inflow and snowpack. Conversion of water volumes into effective energy inflow are also presented and compared to data from the Nordic hydropower system. Further on, we document several important "lessons-learned" that may be of interest to the hydrological research community. Specifically a semi-automatic data cleansing system combining spatial and temporal visualization techniques with statistical procedures are

  16. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  17. Modelling hydrological effects of wetland restoration: a differentiated view.

    PubMed

    Staes, J; Rubarenzya, M H; Meire, P; Willems, P

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents findings of a conjunctive hydrological and ecological study into habitat restoration and catchment hydrology. Physically-based, fully distributed hydrological modelling was coupled with spatial analysis and wetland scenario generation techniques to simulate potential effects of restoring lower, middle, and upper catchment wetlands. In the past, anthropogenic interference of this catchments' landscape for agriculture and settlement has left most wetland areas drained, and brought the natural functioning of the ecosystem into conflict with human needs. Many eco-hydrology studies conclude that such disturbances result in a more extreme hydrological regime. The study objectives were to develop and study innovative methods for habitat restoration, and understand the potential hydrological impacts of each approach. The study aims to analyze the scenarios and whether the hydrological response is influenced by the topological placement of the restoration sites. Land-use change scenarios are developed on the basis of physical characteristics and consider the credibility of transitions from current land-use. This study focused on the position of the wetlands in the catchment and hydrological typology. Wetland restoration scenarios are created for different geographical settings within the catchment. A distinction is made between groundwater dependent wetlands and wetlands that are influenced by in-stream water tables or surface water inundations. Results show that there is little effect on the total annual water budget. The results point to river valley rewetting as having the effect of decreasing the paved overland component of stream flow, and increasing the saturated zone flow component. It promoted groundwater recharge. There was no increase of peak flows due to headwater wetlands, contrary to some sources (Bullock & Acreman 2003). The catchments' actual evapotranspiration and root zone water responses were found to be varied over the analysis points

  18. Extended Range Hydrological Predictions: Uncertainty Associated with Model Parametrization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joseph, J.; Ghosh, S.; Sahai, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    The better understanding of various atmospheric processes has led to improved predictions of meteorological conditions at various temporal scale, ranging from short term which cover a period up to 2 days to long term covering a period of more than 10 days. Accurate prediction of hydrological variables can be done using these predicted meteorological conditions, which would be helpful in proper management of water resources. Extended range hydrological simulation includes the prediction of hydrological variables for a period more than 10 days. The main sources of uncertainty in hydrological predictions include the uncertainty in the initial conditions, meteorological forcing and model parametrization. In the present study, the Extended Range Prediction developed for India for monsoon by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune is used as meteorological forcing for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Sensitive hydrological parameters, as derived from literature, along with a few vegetation parameters are assumed to be uncertain and 1000 random values are generated given their prescribed ranges. Uncertainty bands are generated by performing Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) for the generated sets of parameters and observed meteorological forcings. The basins with minimum human intervention, within the Indian Peninsular region, are identified and validation of results are carried out using the observed gauge discharge. Further, the uncertainty bands are generated for the extended range hydrological predictions by performing MCS for the same set of parameters and extended range meteorological predictions. The results demonstrate the uncertainty associated with the model parametrisation for the extended range hydrological simulations. Keywords: Extended Range Prediction, Variable Infiltration Capacity model, Monte Carlo Simulation.

  19. Analysis of the temporal dynamics of model performance and parameter sensitivity for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D.; Zehe, E.

    2009-04-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. We present a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution. Information about possible relevant processes during times with distinct model performance is obtained from parameter sensitivity analysis - also with high temporal resolution. We illustrate the combined approach of temporally resolved model performance and parameter sensitivity for a rainfall-runoff modeling case study. The headwater catchment of the Wilde Weisseritz in the eastern Ore mountains is simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The temporally resolved sensitivity analysis is based on the FAST algorithm. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types as well as a time series of the relative parameter sensitivity. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors. The parameter sensitivity helps to identify the relevant model parts.

  20. The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation.

    PubMed

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M; Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

    2017-01-01

    The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications.

  1. The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System: A software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation

    PubMed Central

    Das, Narendra; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Ines, Amor; Fisher, Joshua B.; Granger, Stephanie; Kawata, Jessie; Han, Eunjin; Behrangi, Ali

    2017-01-01

    The Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) is a prototype software framework for hydrologic modeling and data assimilation that automates the deployment of water resources nowcasting and forecasting applications. A spatially-enabled database is a key component of the software that can ingest a suite of satellite and model datasets while facilitating the interfacing with Geographic Information System (GIS) applications. The datasets ingested are obtained from numerous space-borne sensors and represent multiple components of the water cycle. The object-oriented design of the software allows for modularity and extensibility, showcased here with the coupling of the core hydrologic model with a crop growth model. RHEAS can exploit multi-threading to scale with increasing number of processors, while the database allows delivery of data products and associated uncertainty through a variety of GIS platforms. A set of three example implementations of RHEAS in the United States and Kenya are described to demonstrate the different features of the system in real-world applications. PMID:28545077

  2. Challenges in Requirements Engineering: A Research Agenda for Conceptual Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    March, Salvatore T.; Allen, Gove N.

    Domains for which information systems are developed deal primarily with social constructions—conceptual objects and attributes created by human intentions and for human purposes. Information systems play an active role in these domains. They document the creation of new conceptual objects, record and ascribe values to their attributes, initiate actions within the domain, track activities performed, and infer conclusions based on the application of rules that govern how the domain is affected when socially-defined and identified causal events occur. Emerging applications of information technologies evaluate such business rules, learn from experience, and adapt to changes in the domain. Conceptual modeling grammars aimed at representing their system requirements must include conceptual objects, socially-defined events, and the rules pertaining to them. We identify challenges to conceptual modeling research and pose an ontology of the artificial as a step toward meeting them.

  3. Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

    2012-12-01

    Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

  4. The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, David; Vis, Marc; Huss, Matthias; Seibert, Jan

    2015-04-01

    The assessment of snow, glacier, and rainfall runoff contribution to discharge in mountain streams is of major importance for an adequate water resource management. Such contributions can be estimated via hydrological models, provided that the modeling adequately accounts for snow and glacier melt, as well as rainfall runoff. We present a multiple data set calibration approach to estimate runoff composition using hydrological models with three levels of complexity. For this purpose, the code of the conceptual runoff model HBV-light was enhanced to allow calibration and validation of simulations against glacier mass balances, satellite-derived snow cover area and measured discharge. Three levels of complexity of the model were applied to glacierized catchments in Switzerland, ranging from 39 to 103 km2. The results indicate that all three observational data sets are reproduced adequately by the model, allowing an accurate estimation of the runoff composition in the three mountain streams. However, calibration against only runoff leads to unrealistic snow and glacier melt rates. Based on these results, we recommend using all three observational data sets in order to constrain model parameters and compute snow, glacier, and rain contributions. Finally, based on the comparison of model performance of different complexities, we postulate that the availability and use of different data sets to calibrate hydrological models might be more important than model complexity to achieve realistic estimations of runoff composition.

  5. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  6. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-01-01

    The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

  7. WEB-DHM: A distributed biosphere hydrological model developed by coupling a simple biosphere scheme with a hillslope hydrological model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The coupling of land surface models and hydrological models potentially improves the land surface representation, benefiting both the streamflow prediction capabilities as well as providing improved estimates of water and energy fluxes into the atmosphere. In this study, the simple biosphere model 2...

  8. Understanding uncertainty in process-based hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, M. P.; Kavetski, D.; Slater, A. G.; Newman, A. J.; Marks, D. G.; Landry, C.; Lundquist, J. D.; Rupp, D. E.; Nijssen, B.

    2013-12-01

    Building an environmental model requires making a series of decisions regarding the appropriate representation of natural processes. While some of these decisions can already be based on well-established physical understanding, gaps in our current understanding of environmental dynamics, combined with incomplete knowledge of properties and boundary conditions of most environmental systems, make many important modeling decisions far more ambiguous. There is consequently little agreement regarding what a 'correct' model structure is, especially at relatively larger spatial scales such as catchments and beyond. In current practice, faced with such a range of decisions, different modelers will generally make different modeling decisions, often on an ad hoc basis, based on their balancing of process understanding, the data available to evaluate the model, the purpose of the modeling exercise, and their familiarity with or investment in an existing model infrastructure. This presentation describes development and application of multiple-hypothesis models to evaluate process-based hydrologic models. Our numerical model uses robust solutions of the hydrology and thermodynamic governing equations as the structural core, and incorporates multiple options to represent the impact of different modeling decisions, including multiple options for model parameterizations (e.g., below-canopy wind speed, thermal conductivity, storage and transmission of liquid water through soil, etc.), as well as multiple options for model architecture, that is, the coupling and organization of different model components (e.g., representations of sub-grid variability and hydrologic connectivity, coupling with groundwater, etc.). Application of this modeling framework across a collection of different research basins demonstrates that differences among model parameterizations are often overwhelmed by differences among equally-plausible model parameter sets, while differences in model architecture lead

  9. A Hydrological Model of the Mobile River Watershed, Southeastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon, Vladimir J.; McAnally, William; Diaz-Ramirez, Jairo; Martin, James; Cartwright, John

    2009-08-01

    A hydrological model of the Mobile Bay watershed located in the northern Gulf of Mexico, (Alabama, USA) is presented. The modeling of hydrological processes is performed using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF). The project region was divided into two sectors for simplifying the modeling task: an upland watershed (that included streams not draining directly to the Mobile Estuary), and several watersheds of selected streams that drain directly to the Mobile estuary (namely: Fish River, Magnolia River, and Chickasaw Creek). The Better Assessment Science Integrating Point & Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) GIS system was used to perform most of the geospatial operations, although ArcGis and ArcInfo were also used to complement geospatial processing that was not available in BASINS.

  10. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

    2014-12-01

    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  11. A physically-based Distributed Hydrologic Model for Tropical Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abebe, N. A.; Ogden, F. L.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrological models are mathematical formulations intended to represent observed hydrological processes in a watershed. Simulated watersheds in turn vary in their nature based on their geographic location, altitude, climatic variables and geology and soil formation. Due to these variations, available hydrologic models vary in process formulation, spatial and temporal resolution and data demand. Many tropical watersheds are characterized by extensive and persistent biological activity and a large amount of rain. The Agua Salud catchments located within the Panama Canal Watershed, Panama, are such catchments identified by steep rolling topography, deep soils derived from weathered bedrock, and limited exposed bedrock. Tropical soils are highly affected by soil cracks, decayed tree roots and earthworm burrows forming a network of preferential flow paths that drain to a perched water table, which forms at a depth where the vertical hydraulic conductivity is significantly reduced near the bottom of the bioturbation layer. We have developed a physics-based, spatially distributed, multi-layered hydrologic model to simulate the dominant processes in these tropical watersheds. The model incorporates the major flow processes including overland flow, channel flow, matrix and non-Richards film flow infiltration, lateral downslope saturated matrix and non-Darcian pipe flow in the bioturbation layer, and deep saturated groundwater flow. Emphasis is given to the modeling of subsurface unsaturated zone soil moisture dynamics and the saturated preferential lateral flow from the network of macrospores. Preliminary results indicate that the model has the capability to simulate the complex hydrological processes in the catchment and will be a useful tool in the ongoing comprehensive ecohydrological studies in tropical catchments, and help improve our understanding of the hydrological effects of deforestation and aforestation.

  12. Hydrologic and water quality terminology as applied to modeling

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A survey of literature and examination in particular of terminology use in a previous special collection of modeling calibration and validation papers has been conducted to arrive at a list of consistent terminology recommended for writing about hydrologic and water quality model calibration and val...

  13. The Use of Simulation Models in Teaching Geomorphology and Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkby, Mike; Naden, Pam

    1988-01-01

    Learning about the physical environment from computer simulation models is discussed in terms of three stages: exploration, experimentation, and calibration. Discusses the effective use of models and presents two computer simulations written in BBC BASIC, STORFLO (for catchment hydrology) and SLOPEK (for hillslope evolution). (Author/GEA)

  14. The Use of Simulation Models in Teaching Geomorphology and Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkby, Mike; Naden, Pam

    1988-01-01

    Learning about the physical environment from computer simulation models is discussed in terms of three stages: exploration, experimentation, and calibration. Discusses the effective use of models and presents two computer simulations written in BBC BASIC, STORFLO (for catchment hydrology) and SLOPEK (for hillslope evolution). (Author/GEA)

  15. Performance measures and criteria for hydrologic and water quality models

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Performance measures and criteria are essential for model calibration and validation. This presentation will include a summary of one of the papers that will be included in the 2014 Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Calibration & Validation Guidelines Special Collection of the ASABE Transactions. T...

  16. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  17. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-11-01

    parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

  18. A Socio-Hydrological Model of the Voluntary Urban Water Conservation Behavior during Droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sangwan, N.; Eisma, J. A.; Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.

    2016-12-01

    Several cities across the globe are increasingly struggling to meet the water demands of their population. By 2050, nearly 160 million urban dwellers are likely to face perennial water shortage due to ever rising population numbers and climate change. As observed once again during recent drought in California, voluntary water conservation is a key approach for managing urban water availability during periods of constrained supply. It relies on behavioral adaptation that is critical for long-term reductions in water use and building drought resilient communities. Strong interdependencies between human group behavior and regional hydrology in this context entail that the two components be coupled together in a socio-hydrology model to fully understand the dynamics of urban water systems. This work proposes a conceptual framework for one such model and simulates the dynamics of a voluntary conservation program in Marin Municipal Water District, California using dynamic systems modeling approach. Through this model, we plan to assess the effects of different social factors (such as social concern and conformist tendencies) and climato-hydrological conditions (viz. storage levels and weather forecast) on the trajectory of a voluntary conservation program. Our preliminary results have indicated several `tipping points' which can be capitalized on by policy makers to boost conservation at low social costs.

  19. Analysis of the Temporal Dynamics of Model Performance for Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2008-12-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. We present a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrate its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  20. Overtraining and recovery. A conceptual model.

    PubMed

    Kenttä, G; Hassmén, P

    1998-07-01

    importance of active measures to improve the recovery process. Furthermore, directing attention to psychophysiological cues serves the same purpose as in RPE, i.e. increasing self-awareness. This article reviews and conceptualises the whole overtraining process. In doing so, it (i) aims to differentiate between the types of stress affecting an athlete's performance: (ii) identifies factors influencing an athlete's ability to adapt to physical training: (iii) structures the recovery process. The TQR method to facilitate monitoring of the recovery process is then suggested and a conceptual model that incorporates all of the important parameters for performance gain (adaptation) and loss (maladaptation).

  1. Evolution of an operational hydrological model: from global to semi-distributed approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Frédéric; Garçon, Rémy

    2016-04-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) for operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. In its historical version, hereafter called MORDOR1996, this is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow and ice accumulation and melt, routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 25 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In order to consider the spatial heterogeneity of the input data (rainfall and air temperature) and the hydrological characteristics within a basin, the structure of model has been updated. The new version of the model, named MORDOR SD, is a semi-distributed hydrological model driven by elevation. The basin is spitted into several elevation bands on which a simple global MORDOR model is implemented; i.e. only evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, snow and ice accumulation and melt are computed. However ground water and routing processes remain global. The primary purpose of this study is to present MORDOR SD model through a comparison with the historical version. The first result of this comparative study is that the new version provides better calibration-validation performances. Moreover the semi-distributed approach both allows to simplify the model structure (i.e. less degrees of freedom) and to reduce the equifinality problem in the calibration process. The model's parameters are calibrated at daily timestep with a genetic algorithm that uses a composed objective function. This complex function quantifies the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time

  2. An Integrative-Interactive Conceptual Model for Curriculum Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Ibrahim, Abdul Rahman H.

    1982-01-01

    The Integrative-Interactive Conceptual Model for Curriculum Development calls for curriculum reform and innovation to be cybernetic so that all aspects of curriculum planning get adequate attention. (CJ)

  3. Impact of Model Uncertainty Description on Assimilating Hydraulic Head into the MIKE-SHE Distributed Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D.; Madsen, H.; Ridler, M. E.; Rasmussen, J.; Refsgaard, J.; Jensen, K.

    2013-12-01

    Catchment-scale hydrological models are used as prediction tools to solve major challenges in water resources management. The reliability of hydrological model predictions is inevitably affected by the amount of information available to set up and calibrate the model. Data assimilation (DA) which combines complementary information from measurements and models has proven to be a powerful and promising tool in numerous research studies to improve model predictions. Especially, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) which is a popular sequential data assimilation technique, has been extensively studied in the earth sciences for assimilating in-situ measurements and remote sensing data. However, one of the major challenges in data assimilation to optimally combine model and measurements is the description of model uncertainty. Only few studies have been reported for defining appropriate model uncertainty in hydrological DA. Modeling uncertainties can be conceptually different in different applications. Traditionally, model uncertainty is represented by parameter uncertainty with corresponding parameter statistics determined by inverse modeling. In most hydrological DA applications, however, model uncertainty is defined by experience using simple statistical descriptions of different uncertainty sources. In this work, both the uncertainty derived from inverse modeling and from empirical knowledge are used and analyzed. A combination of parameter-based, forcing-based and state-based model error is implemented in the EnKF framework for assimilating groundwater hydraulic heads into a catchment-scale model of the Karup Catchment in Denmark using the distributed and integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE. A series of synthetic identical twin experiments are carried out to analyze the impact of different model error assumptions on the feasibility and efficiency of the assimilation. The optimality of the EnKF underlying twin test provides possibilities to diagnose model error

  4. Brokering as a framework for hydrological model repeatability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuka, Daniel; Collick, Amy; MacAlister, Charlotte; Braeckel, Aaron; Wright, Dawn; Jodha Khalsa, Siri; Boldrini, Enrico; Easton, Zachary

    2015-04-01

    Data brokering aims to provide those in the the sciences with quick and repeatable access to data that represents physical, biological, and chemical characteristics; specifically to accelerate scientific discovery. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these hydrological models requires many different data, from different sources, and from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In basin scale hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, or more suitable data products will exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols, and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non native user exceedingly difficult and time consuming. We demonstrate data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering can increase the efficiency with which data are obtained, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering can significantly increase the repeatability of a given study.

  5. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  6. Hydrologic Modeling in a Service-Oriented Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodall, J. L.

    2008-12-01

    Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) offer an approach for creating hydrologic models whereby a model is decomposed into independent computational services that are geographically distributed yet accessible through the Internet. The advantage of this modeling approach is that diverse groups can contribute computational routines that are usable by a wide community, and these routines can be used across operating systems and languages with minimal requirements on the client computer. While the approach has clear benefits in building next generation hydrologic models, a number of challenges must be addressed in order for the approach to reach its full potential. One such challenge in achieving service-oriented hydrologic modeling is establishing standards for web service interfaces and for service-to-service data exchanges. This study presents a prototype service-oriented modeling system that leverages existing protocols and standards (OpenMI, WaterML, GML, etc.) to perfor