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Sample records for hydrology conceptual model

  1. Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General

  2. Misrepresentation and amendment of soil moisture in conceptual hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Although many conceptual models are very effective in simulating river runoff, their soil moisture schemes are generally not realistic in comparison with the reality (i.e., getting the right answers for the wrong reasons). This study reveals two significant misrepresentations in those models through a case study using the Xinanjiang model which is representative of many well-known conceptual hydrological models. The first is the setting of the upper limit of its soil moisture at the field capacity, due to the 'holding excess runoff' concept (i.e., runoff begins on repletion of its storage to the field capacity). The second is neglect of capillary rise of water movement. A new scheme is therefore proposed to overcome those two issues. The amended model is as effective as its original form in flow modelling, but represents more logically realistic soil water processes. The purpose of the study is to enable the hydrological model to get the right answers for the right reasons. Therefore, the new model structure has a better capability in potentially assimilating soil moisture observations to enhance its real-time flood forecasting accuracy. The new scheme is evaluated in the Pontiac catchment of the USA through a comparison with satellite observed soil moisture. The correlation between the XAJ and the observed soil moisture is enhanced significantly from 0.64 to 0.70. In addition, a new soil moisture term called SMDS (Soil Moisture Deficit to Saturation) is proposed to complement the conventional SMD (Soil Moisture Deficit).

  3. Distributed hydrological models: comparison between TOPKAPI, a physically based model and TETIS, a conceptually based model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz, E.; Guna, V.

    2009-04-01

    The present work aims to carry out a comparison between two distributed hydrological models, the TOPKAPI (Ciarapica and Todini, 1998; Todini and Ciarapica, 2001) and TETIS (Vélez, J. J.; Vélez J. I. and Francés, F, 2002) models, obtaining the hydrological solution computed on the basis of the same storm events. The first model is physically based and the second one is conceptually based. The analysis was performed on the 21,4 km2 Goodwin Creek watershed, located in Panola County, Mississippi. This watershed extensively monitored by the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) National Sediment Laboratory (NSL) has been chosen because it offers a complete database compiling precipitation (16 rain gauges), runoff (6 discharge stations) and GIS data. Three storm events were chosen to evaluate the performance of the two models: the first one was chosen to calibrate the models, and the other two to validate them. Both models performed a satisfactory hydrological response both in calibration and validation events. While for the TOPKAPI model it wasn't a real calibration, due to its really good performance with parameters modal values derived of watershed characteristics, for the TETIS model it has been necessary to perform a previous automatic calibration. This calibration was carried out using the data provided by the observed hydrograph, in order to adjust the modeĺs 9 correction factors. Keywords: TETIS, TOPKAPI, distributed models, hydrological response, ungauged basins.

  4. Understanding hydrological flow paths in conceptual catchment models using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, Eva M.; O'Loughlin, Fiachra E.; Bruen, Michael

    2016-05-01

    Increasing pressures on water quality due to intensification of agriculture have raised demands for environmental modeling to accurately simulate the movement of diffuse (nonpoint) nutrients in catchments. As hydrological flows drive the movement and attenuation of nutrients, individual hydrological processes in models should be adequately represented for water quality simulations to be meaningful. In particular, the relative contribution of groundwater and surface runoff to rivers is of interest, as increasing nitrate concentrations are linked to higher groundwater discharges. These requirements for hydrological modeling of groundwater contribution to rivers initiated this assessment of internal flow path partitioning in conceptual hydrological models. In this study, a variance based sensitivity analysis method was used to investigate parameter sensitivities and flow partitioning of three conceptual hydrological models simulating 31 Irish catchments. We compared two established conceptual hydrological models (NAM and SMARG) and a new model (SMART), produced especially for water quality modeling. In addition to the criteria that assess streamflow simulations, a ratio of average groundwater contribution to total streamflow was calculated for all simulations over the 16 year study period. As observations time-series of groundwater contributions to streamflow are not available at catchment scale, the groundwater ratios were evaluated against average annual indices of base flow and deep groundwater flow for each catchment. The exploration of sensitivities of internal flow path partitioning was a specific focus to assist in evaluating model performances. Results highlight that model structure has a strong impact on simulated groundwater flow paths. Sensitivity to the internal pathways in the models are not reflected in the performance criteria results. This demonstrates that simulated groundwater contribution should be constrained by independent data to ensure results

  5. A conceptual data model coupling with physically-based distributed hydrological models based on catchment discretization schemas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yuanming; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2015-11-01

    In hydrology, the data types, spatio-temporal scales and formats for physically-based distributed hydrological models and the distributed data or parameters may be different before significant data pre-processing or may change during hydrological simulation run time. A data model is devoted to these problems for sophisticated numerical hydrological modeling procedures. In this paper, we propose a conceptual data model to interpret the comprehensive, universal and complex water environmental entities. We also present an innovative integration methodology to couple the data model with physically-based distributed hydrological models (DHMs) based on catchment discretization schemas. The data model provides a reasonable framework for researchers of organizing and pre-processing water environmental spatio-temporal datasets. It also facilitates seamless data flow fluid and dynamic by hydrological response units (HRUs) as the core between the object-oriented databases and physically-based distributed hydrological models.

  6. Development of Conceptual Benchmark Models to Evaluate Complex Hydrologic Model Calibration in Managed Basins Using Python

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, J. D.; White, J.

    2013-12-01

    For many numerical hydrologic models it is a challenge to quantitatively demonstrate that complex models are preferable to simpler models. Typically, a decision is made to develop and calibrate a complex model at the beginning of a study. The value of selecting a complex model over simpler models is commonly inferred from use of a model with fewer simplifications of the governing equations because it can be time consuming to develop another numerical code with data processing and parameter estimation functionality. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to develop and calibrate simple models that can be used to quantitatively demonstrate the increased value of a complex model. We have developed and calibrated a spatially-distributed surface-water/groundwater flow model for managed basins in southeast Florida, USA, to (1) evaluate the effect of municipal groundwater pumpage on surface-water/groundwater exchange, (2) investigate how the study area will respond to sea-level rise, and (3) explore combinations of these forcing functions. To demonstrate the increased value of this complex model, we developed a two-parameter conceptual-benchmark-discharge model for each basin in the study area. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge model includes seasonal scaling and lag parameters and is driven by basin rainfall. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge models were developed in the Python programming language and used weekly rainfall data. Calibration was implemented with the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno method available in the Scientific Python (SciPy) library. Normalized benchmark efficiencies calculated using output from the complex model and the corresponding conceptual-benchmark-discharge model indicate that the complex model has more explanatory power than the simple model driven only by rainfall.

  7. On the validity of first-order prediction limits for conceptual hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuczera, George

    1988-11-01

    First-order analysis is a powerful method for evaluating the effect of parameter uncertainty propagating through a conceptual hydrologic model. However, its validity rests on the strong assumption that a first-order approximation is valid over the region of parameter space where there is significant parameter uncertainty. It is suggested that Beale's nonlinearity measure be used to check this assumption. This measure is based on the discrepancy between actual and linearized response for parameters randomly sampled from the surface of the 90% confidence ellipsoid. Examples involving two nonlinear conceptual models demonstrate that model nonlinearity is very much application-dependent, highlighting the need to compute Beale's nonlinearity measure in all model applications. Uncertainty in hydrologic response is induced not only by parameter uncertainty propagating through the model, but also by natural uncertainty arising from model and measurement error. Approximate prediction limits based on both parameter and natural uncertainty, are developed in a regression context, which employs an error model consistent with the residual characteristics found in conceptual hydrologic model applications. An example involving an eight-parameter streamflow yield model demonstrates dominance of natural over parameter uncertainty, emphasizing the need to include both forms of uncertainty when computing prediction limits.

  8. Hydrologic Setting and Conceptual Hydrologic Model of the Walker River Basin, West-Central Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lopes, Thomas J.; Allander, Kip K.

    2009-01-01

    The Walker River is the main source of inflow to Walker Lake, a closed-basin lake in west-central Nevada. Between 1882 and 2008, agricultural diversions resulted in a lake-level decline of more than 150 feet and storage loss of 7,400,000 acre-ft. Evaporative concentration increased dissolved solids from 2,500 to 17,000 milligrams per liter. The increase in salinity threatens the survival of the Lahontan cutthroat trout, a native species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. This report describes the hydrologic setting of the Walker River basin and a conceptual hydrologic model of the relations among streams, groundwater, and Walker Lake with emphasis on the lower Walker River basin from Wabuska to Hawthorne, Nevada. The Walker River basin is about 3,950 square miles and straddles the California-Nevada border. Most streamflow originates as snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada. Spring runoff from the Sierra Nevada typically reaches its peak during late May to early June with as much as 2,800 cubic feet per second in the Walker River near Wabuska. Typically, 3 to 4 consecutive years of below average streamflow are followed by 1 or 2 years of average or above average streamflow. Mountain ranges are comprised of consolidated rocks with low hydraulic conductivities, but consolidated rocks transmit water where fractured. Unconsolidated sediments include fluvial deposits along the active channel of the Walker River, valley floors, alluvial slopes, and a playa. Sand and gravel deposited by the Walker River likely are discontinuous strata throughout the valley floor. Thick clay strata likely were deposited in Pleistocene Lake Lahontan and are horizontally continuous, except where strata have been eroded by the Walker River. At Walker Lake, sediments mostly are clay interbedded with alluvial slope, fluvial, and deltaic deposits along the lake margins. Coarse sediments form a multilayered, confined-aquifer system that could extend several miles from the shoreline

  9. Assessment of hydrological model predictive ability given multiple conceptual geological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seifert, Dorte; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; HøJberg, Anker L.; Troldborg, Lars

    2012-06-01

    In this study six hydrological models that only differ with respect to their conceptual geological models are established for a 465 km2 area. The performances of the six models are evaluated in differential split-sample tests against a unique data set with well documented groundwater head and discharge data for different periods with different groundwater abstractions. The calibration results of the six models are comparable, with no model being superior to the others. Though, the six models make very different predictions of changes in groundwater head and discharges as a response to changes in groundwater abstraction. This confirms the utmost importance of the conceptual geological model for making predictions of variables and conditions beyond the calibration situation. In most cases the observed changes in hydraulic head and discharge are within the range of the changes predicted by the six models implying that a multiple modeling approach can be useful in obtaining more robust assessments of likely prediction errors. We conclude that the use of multiple models appear to be a good alternative to traditional differential split-sample schemes. A model averaging analysis shows that model weights estimated from model performance in the calibration or validation situation in many cases are not optimal for making other predictions. Hence, the critical assumption that is always made in model averaging, namely that the model weights derived from the calibration situation are also optimal for model predictions, cannot be assumed to be generally valid.

  10. Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model.

    PubMed

    Dinka, Megersa O; Loiskandl, Willibald; Ndambuki, Julius M

    2014-09-01

    Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake's hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R(2), MAE, RMSE, E(f)). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56% of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.

  11. Sensitivity of hydrological performance assessment analysis to variations in material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models

    SciTech Connect

    Sobolik, S.R.; Ho, C.K.; Dunn, E.; Robey, T.H.; Cruz, W.T.

    1996-07-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project is studying Yucca Mountain in southwestern Nevada as a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository. Site characterization includes surface- based and underground testing. Analyses have been performed to support the design of an Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and the design of the tests performed as part of the characterization process, in order to ascertain that they have minimal impact on the natural ability of the site to isolate waste. The information in this report pertains to sensitivity studies evaluating previous hydrological performance assessment analyses to variation in the material properties, conceptual models, and ventilation models, and the implications of this sensitivity on previous recommendations supporting ESF design. This document contains information that has been used in preparing recommendations for Appendix I of the Exploratory Studies Facility Design Requirements document.

  12. How much cryosphere model complexity is just right? Exploration using the conceptual cryosphere hydrology framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosier, Thomas M.; Hill, David F.; Sharp, Kendra V.

    2016-09-01

    Making meaningful projections of the impacts that possible future climates would have on water resources in mountain regions requires understanding how cryosphere hydrology model performance changes under altered climate conditions and when the model is applied to ungaged catchments. Further, if we are to develop better models, we must understand which specific process representations limit model performance. This article presents a modeling tool, named the Conceptual Cryosphere Hydrology Framework (CCHF), that enables implementing and evaluating a wide range of cryosphere modeling hypotheses. The CCHF represents cryosphere hydrology systems using a set of coupled process modules that allows easily interchanging individual module representations and includes analysis tools to evaluate model outputs. CCHF version 1 (Mosier, 2016) implements model formulations that require only precipitation and temperature as climate inputs - for example variations on simple degree-index (SDI) or enhanced temperature index (ETI) formulations - because these model structures are often applied in data-sparse mountain regions, and perform relatively well over short periods, but their calibration is known to change based on climate and geography. Using CCHF, we implement seven existing and novel models, including one existing SDI model, two existing ETI models, and four novel models that utilize a combination of existing and novel module representations. The novel module representations include a heat transfer formulation with net longwave radiation and a snowpack internal energy formulation that uses an approximation of the cold content. We assess the models for the Gulkana and Wolverine glaciated watersheds in Alaska, which have markedly different climates and contain long-term US Geological Survey benchmark glaciers. Overall we find that the best performing models are those that are more physically consistent and representative, but no single model performs best for all of our model

  13. Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at yucca mountain, nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.; Bodvarsson, G. S.; Kwicklis, E. M.; Fabryka-Martin, J.

    2001-02-01

    Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States' first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500-1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5-4.5 mm/yr, or 2-3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because o f capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to show. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water into the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data

  14. Evolution of the conceptual model of unsaturated zone hydrology at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.; Kwicklis, Edward M.; Fabryka-Martin, June

    2001-01-01

    Yucca Mountain is an arid site proposed for consideration as the United States’ first underground high-level radioactive waste repository. Low rainfall (approximately 170 mm/yr) and a thick unsaturated zone (500–1000 m) are important physical attributes of the site because the quantity of water likely to reach the waste and the paths and rates of movement of the water to the saturated zone under future climates would be major factors in controlling the concentrations and times of arrival of radionuclides at the surrounding accessible environment. The framework for understanding the hydrologic processes that occur at this site and that control how quickly water will penetrate through the unsaturated zone to the water table has evolved during the past 15 yr. Early conceptual models assumed that very small volumes of water infiltrated into the bedrock (0.5–4.5 mm/yr, or 2–3 percent of rainfall), that much of the infiltrated water flowed laterally within the upper nonwelded units because of capillary barrier effects, and that the remaining water flowed down faults with a small amount flowing through the matrix of the lower welded, fractured rocks. It was believed that the matrix had to be saturated for fractures to flow. However, accumulating evidence indicated that infiltration rates were higher than initially estimated, such as infiltration modeling based on neutron borehole data, bomb-pulse isotopes deep in the mountain, perched water analyses and thermal analyses. Mechanisms supporting lateral diversion did not apply at these higher fluxes, and the flux calculated in the lower welded unit exceeded the conductivity of the matrix, implying vertical flow of water in the high permeability fractures of the potential repository host rock, and disequilibrium between matrix and fracture water potentials. The development of numerical modeling methods and parameter values evolved concurrently with the conceptual model in order to account for the observed field data

  15. A conceptual, linear reservoir runoff model to investigate melt season changes in cirque glacier hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannah, David M.; Gurnell, Angela M.

    2001-06-01

    This paper presents a conceptual, linear reservoir runoff model and applies it to a small glacierized cirque basin in the French Pyrénées over the 1995 melt season. A series of modelling experiments are undertaken: (i) to explore the response of diurnal hydrograph form to seasonal changes in surface meltwater recharge and glacier storage and routing processes and (ii) to investigate the possible structure of the hydrological system of this remnant glacier. High resolution, spatially- and temporally distributed observations of snow and ice-melt (and precipitation records) are used to estimate bulk meltwater inputs, which feed into a lumped meltwater drainage model. Empirical hydrograph recession limb analysis provides a basis to identify the most likely 'structure' of the glacier's hydrological system. This structure is then represented in the model by two ('fast' and 'slow') linear reservoirs. Although fast reservoir storage coefficients show only a moderate decline (13.00-5.25 h), the proportion of bulk meltwater entering this reservoir increases as the glacier snowline retreats and the slow reservoir storage coefficient decreases (45.00-17.75 h); consequently modelled hydrographs become increasingly peaked over the ablation season. Later in the melt season, the drainage system is mathematically best represented as a single reservoir (with a storage coefficient of 6.00-8.25 h) due to meltwater production occurring mainly in the lower-mid ablation zone, reduction in the extent (capacity) of the slower storage areas, and/or integration of the slow and fast pathways. In terms of glacier hydrology, the modelling experiments suggest that the fast reservoir represents ice-melt draining into a semi-distributed system beneath the lower glacier and the slow reservoir represents a snowpack-fed distributed system below the upper glacier. The nature of storage and routing within the hydrological system and the degree to which these processes are significant in determining

  16. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modelling in the semi-arid Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2015-05-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modelling of a mesoscale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30-year period (1982-2011). The modelling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behaviour: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modelling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional (4-D) space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain eight model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modelling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  17. Reducing structural uncertainty in conceptual hydrological modeling in the semi-arid Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hublart, P.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2014-10-01

    The use of lumped, conceptual models in hydrological impact studies requires placing more emphasis on the uncertainty arising from deficiencies and/or ambiguities in the model structure. This study provides an opportunity to combine a multiple-hypothesis framework with a multi-criteria assessment scheme to reduce structural uncertainty in the conceptual modeling of a meso-scale Andean catchment (1515 km2) over a 30 year period (1982-2011). The modeling process was decomposed into six model-building decisions related to the following aspects of the system behavior: snow accumulation and melt, runoff generation, redistribution and delay of water fluxes, and natural storage effects. Each of these decisions was provided with a set of alternative modeling options, resulting in a total of 72 competing model structures. These structures were calibrated using the concept of Pareto optimality with three criteria pertaining to streamflow simulations and one to the seasonal dynamics of snow processes. The results were analyzed in the four-dimensional space of performance measures using a fuzzy c-means clustering technique and a differential split sample test, leading to identify 14 equally acceptable model hypotheses. A filtering approach was then applied to these best-performing structures in order to minimize the overall uncertainty envelope while maximizing the number of enclosed observations. This led to retain 8 model hypotheses as a representation of the minimum structural uncertainty that could be obtained with this modeling framework. Future work to better consider model predictive uncertainty should include a proper assessment of parameter equifinality and data errors, as well as the testing of new or refined hypotheses to allow for the use of additional auxiliary observations.

  18. Exploring Hydrological Flow Paths in Conceptual Catchment Models using Variance-based Sensitivity Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, E. M.; O'Loughlin, F.; Bruen, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Conceptual rainfall runoff (CRR) models aim to capture the dominant hydrological processes in a catchment in order to predict the flows in a river. Most flood forecasting models focus on predicting total outflows from a catchment and often perform well without the correct distribution between individual pathways. However, modelling of water flow paths within a catchment, rather than its overall response, is specifically needed to investigate the physical and chemical transport of matter through the various elements of the hydrological cycle. Focus is increasingly turning to accurately quantifying the internal movement of water within these models to investigate if the simulated processes contributing to the total flows are realistic in the expectation of generating more robust models. Parameter regionalisation is required if such models are to be widely used, particularly in ungauged catchments. However, most regionalisation studies to date have typically consisted of calibrations and correlations of parameters with catchment characteristics, or some variations of this. In order for a priori parameter estimation in this manner to be possible, a model must be parametrically parsimonious while still capturing the dominant processes of the catchment. The presence of parameter interactions within most CRR model structures can make parameter prediction in ungauged basins very difficult, as the functional role of the parameter within the model may not be uniquely identifiable. We use a variance based sensitivity analysis method to investigate parameter sensitivities and interactions in the global parameter space of three CRR models, simulating a set of 30 Irish catchments within a variety of hydrological settings over a 16 year period. The exploration of sensitivities of internal flow path partitioning was a specific focus and correlations between catchment characteristics and parameter sensitivities were also investigated to assist in evaluating model performances

  19. Runoff simulation in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) using conceptual hydrological HBV-light model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radchenko, Iuliia; Breuer, Lutz; Forkutsa, Irina; Frede, Hans-Georg

    2013-04-01

    Glaciers and permafrost on the ranges of the Tien Shan mountain system are primary sources of water in the Ferghana Valley. The water artery of the valley is the Syr Darya River that is formed by confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, which originate from the mountain glaciers of the Ak-Shyrak and the Ferghana ranges accordingly. The Ferghana Valley is densely populated and main activity of population is agriculture that heavily depends on irrigation especially in such arid region. The runoff reduction is projected in future due to global temperature rise and glacier shrinkage as a consequence. Therefore, it is essential to study climate change impact on water resources in the area both for ecological and economic aspects. The evaluation of comparative contribution of small upper catchments (n=24) with precipitation predominance in discharge and the large Naryn and Karadarya River basins, which are fed by glacial melt water, to the Fergana Valley water balance under current and future climatic conditions is general aim of the study. Appropriate understanding of the hydrological cycle under current climatic conditions is significant for prognosis of water resource availability in the future. Thus, conceptual hydrological HBV-light model was used for analysing of the water balance of the small upper catchments that surround the Ferghana Valley. Three trial catchments (the Kugart River basin, 1010 km²; the Kurshab River basin, 2010 km2; the Akbura River basin, 2260 km²) with relatively good temporal quality data were chosen to setup the model. Due to limitation of daily temperature data the MODAWEC weather generator, which converts monthly temperature data into daily based on correlation with rainfall, was tested and applied for the HBV-light model.

  20. Towards a conceptual model of hydrological change on an abandoned cutover bog, Quebec

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Seters, Tim E.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2002-07-01

    Cutover bogs do not return to functional peatland ecosystems after abandonment because re-establishment of peat-forming mosses is poor. This paper presents a conceptual model of bog disturbance caused by peat harvesting (1942-1972), and the hydrological evolution that occurred after abandonment (1973-1998). Two adjacent bogs of similar size and origin, one harvested and the other essentially undisturbed, provide the basis for understanding what changes occurred. The model is based on historical trends evident from previous surveys of land-use, bog ecology and resource mapping; and from recent hydrological and ecological data that characterize the current condition. Water balance data and historical information suggest that runoff increased and evapotranspiration decreased following drainage, but tended towards pre-disturbance levels following abandonment, as vegetation recolonized the surface and drainage became less efficient over time. Dewatering of soil pores after drainage caused shrinkage and oxidation of the peat and surface subsidence of approximately 80 cm over 57 years. Comparisons with a nearby natural bog suggest that bulk density in the upper 50 cm of cutover peat increased from 0·07 to 0·13 g cm-3, specific yield declined from 0·14 to 0·07, water table fluctuations were 67% greater, and mean saturated hydraulic conductivity declined from 4·1 × 10-5 to 1·3 × 10-5 cm s-1. More than 25 years after abandonment, Sphagnum mosses were distributed over broad areas but covered less than 15% of the surface. Areas with good Sphagnum regeneration (>10% cover) were strongly correlated with high water tables (mean -22 cm), especially in zones of seasonal groundwater discharge, artefacts of the extraction history. Forest cover expanded from 5 to 20% of the study area following abandonment. The effect of forest growth (transpiration and interception) and drainage on lowering water levels eventually will be countered by slower water movement through the

  1. Conceptual hydrologic model of flow in the unsaturated zone, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Montazer, P.M.; Wilson, W.E.

    1984-01-01

    The unsaturated volcanic tuffs beneath Yucca Mountain, Nevada, are being evaluated as a host rock for a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. A conceptual hydrologic model is proposed to describe the flow of fluids through these rocks. Thickness of the unsaturated zone is about 500 to 750 meters and consists of three welded units interlayered with two nonwelded units. Compared to nonwelded units, welded units have low matrix porosities and permeabilities, high fracture densities, and high bulk hydraulic conductivities. The principal repository area is bounded by normal fault zones. Of the average annual precipitation of 150 millimeters per year, 0.5 to 4.5 millimeters per year becomes net infiltration. Percolation through the matrix of the welded units is principally vertical and is less than 1 millimeter per year. Percolation through nonwelded units occurs both vertically and laterally and has variable rates (0.1 to 100 millimeters per year). Fracture flow is predominant in the uppermost welded unit during intense pulses of infiltration, but is insignificant in the welded unit that forms the potential host rock. Lateral flow in the upper nonwelded unit, enhanced by existence of a capillary barrier, probably is the factor controlling the low fluxes in the host rock and relatively high fluxes in the structural features. (USGS)

  2. Performance of a distributed semi-conceptual hydrological model under tropical watershed conditions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many hydrologic models have been developed to help manage natural resources all over the world. Nevertheless, most models have presented a high complexity in terms of data base requirements, as well as, many calibration parameters. This has resulted in serious difficulties to application in catchmen...

  3. Snow hydrology of a headwater Arctic basin. 2. Conceptual analysis and computer modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hinzman, L.D.; Kane, D.L. )

    1991-06-01

    Lack of hydrologic data in the Arctic, particularly during snowmelt, severely limits modeling strategy. Spring snowmelt in Imnavait watershed is a very brief event, usually lasting about 10 days. Peak flow normally occurs within the top 10 cm of the highly organic soil mat or on the surface. Snow damming of snowmelt runoff is an important mechanism which must be considered in the modeling process of small watersheds. These unique characteristics of Arctic hydrology will affect the methodology and performance of a hydrologic model. The HBV model was used in an investigation of the hydrologic regime of an Arctic watershed during the spring snowmelt period. From the analysis of five spring melt events the authors found that HBV can adequately predict soil moisture, evaporation, snow ablation and accumulation, and runoff. It models the volumes of snowmelt runoff well, but more data are needed to improve the determination of snowmelt initiation. Use of HBV as a predictive tool is dependent upon the quality of the meteorologic forecast data.

  4. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  5. A Conceptual Model for Evaluating Hydrologic Connectivity in Geographically Isolated Wetlands

    EPA Science Inventory

    Knowledge about hydrologic connectivity between aquatic resources is critical to understanding and managing watershed hydrology and to the legal status of those resources. In particular, information is needed on the hydrologic connectivity and effects of geographically isolated ...

  6. Where does the uncertainty come from? Attributing Uncertainty in Conceptual Hydrologic Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abu Shoaib, S.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.

    2015-12-01

    Defining an appropriate forecasting model is a key phase in water resources planning and design. Quantification of uncertainty is an important step in the development and application of hydrologic models. In this study, we examine the dependency of hydrologic model uncertainty on the observed model inputs, defined model structure, parameter optimization identifiability and identified likelihood. We present here a new uncertainty metric, the Quantile Flow Deviation or QFD, to evaluate the relative uncertainty due to each of these sources under a range of catchment conditions. Through the metric, we may identify the potential spectrum of uncertainty and variability in model simulations. The QFD assesses uncertainty by estimating the deviation in flows at a given quantile across a range of scenarios. By using a quantile based metric, the change in uncertainty across individual percentiles can be assessed, thereby allowing uncertainty to be expressed as a function of time. The QFD method can be disaggregated to examine any part of the modelling process including the selection of certain model subroutines or forcing data. Case study results (including catchments in Australia and USA) suggest that model structure selection is vital irrespective of the flow percentile of interest or the catchment being studied. Examining the QFD across various quantiles additionally demonstrates that lower yielding catchments may have greater variation due to selected model structures. By incorporating multiple model structures, it is possible to assess (i) the relative importance of various sources of uncertainty, (ii) how these vary with the change in catchment location or hydrologic regime; and (iii) the impact of the length of available observations in uncertainty quantification.

  7. What can hydrological time series variations tell about karst dynamics? A coupled statistical/conceptual modeling analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massei, N.; Duran, L. P.; Fournier, M.; Jardani, A.; Lecoq, N.

    2015-12-01

    In this research we study the capability of time series analysis approaches to extract meaningful components of karst spring hydrographs. In this aim we compare these statistical components to the internal components of a conceptual precipitation/discharge model based on the physical knowledge of the site studied. We used the conceptual modeling software KARSTMOD developed by the INSU/CNRS National Karst Observatory to model discharge at a small karst spring in Normandy (France). The model comprised four reservoirs E, L, M and C (interpreted as epikarst, high- inertia/highly capacitive matrix, fissure network and conduits), consistent with previous works showing the existence of a triple porosity in chalk of Normandy. KARSTMOD internal flow components were analyzed with correlation and Fourier spectral analysis, and compared to statistical components extracted from spring discharge by wavelet multiresolution analysis and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). We could also analyze how the hydrological signal acquired its red noise statistical characteristics while water flow propagates into the conceptual model. The trend of the discharge signal, given by the residue of EEMD, appeared quite similar to the variation in reservoir L and well correlated to the variation of the water level within the aquifer. Exchanges between fissured matrix and conduits (reservoirs M and C) could be also investigated: a high frequency pressure pulse-controlled flow from C to M (intermittent recharge from the conduits) was identified, as well as fissured matrix flow likely to take place in the surroundings of the conduit network. Flow from reservoir M to reservoir C could be recovered by recombining wavelet components of spring discharge. This study demonstrated that statistical components extracted from a discharge signal of a karst spring can provide meaningful hydrological information. Comparison with a physics-based model would however be required in order to complement this

  8. MESSI: An engineering tool for conceptual hydrological modeling using SUPERFLEX, MOSCEM and GLUE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Osnabrugge, Bart; Mondeel, Herman; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2014-05-01

    The progress of hydrology as a science is mentioned quite often and indeed lots of theoretical research is done to improving hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) modeling. At the same time however, it is concluded that engineering practice lags behind on this scientific progress by at least a couple of years. In this research, it is investigated how this gap can be closed. An engineering tool is developed called Model Ensemble, Sampling, Selection and Interpretation (MESSI) and tested in the engineering environment. The tool uses the model hypothesis framework SUPERFLEX to build an 'a-priori' ensemble of possible model structures for the case at hand. Then, the Multi-objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (MOSCEM) is used for sampling of the parameter space. Finally, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology is used to select a posterior ensemble which is then interpreted using the Pareto front and generated uncertainty bounds. During the trial it was found that MESSI provides a plug-and-play method which is able to provide catchment process information, a mathematical optimal model and a measure of uncertainty based on the observation. Most important, it is shown that with a little effort new techniques can be brought directly to the engineering arena which will improve the interaction between the scientist and the engineer.

  9. A Hydrological Model To Bridge The Gap Between Conceptual and Physically Based Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, M.; Ostrowski, M.; Blöschl, G.

    In the last decade it has become evident that models are needed to account for more realistic physical assumptions and for improved data availability and computational facilities. In general it seems to be a dominant objective to better account for nonlin- earity and for less uncertain parameter identification. This allows its application also to ungaged catchments. To account for these objectives and for improved computa- tional boundary conditions a new model has been developed, tested and validated at Darmstadt University of Technology. The model is a quasi non linear model, it uses GIS provided data and includes physically based (not physical) model parameters, quite readily available from digitally stored information. Surface runoff determined after physically based non linear soil moisture modelling is routed with the kinematic cascade approach according to digital elevation grid models while sub-surface flow is routed through linear conceptual modules. The model uses generally accepted param- eters for soil moisture modelling including vegetation canopy such as total porosity, field cvapacity, wilting point, hydraulic conductivities and leaf area index and canopy coverage. The model has been successfully applied to several test sites and catchments at local, micro and lower macro scales. It is the objective of the paper to - explain the background of model development - briefly explain algorithms - discuss model parameter identification - present case study results

  10. A Bayesian Uncertainty Framework for Conceptual Snowmelt and Hydrologic Models Applied to the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, T.; Marshall, L.

    2007-12-01

    In many mountainous regions, the single most important parameter in forecasting the controls on regional water resources is snowpack (Williams et al., 1999). In an effort to bridge the gap between theoretical understanding and functional modeling of snow-driven watersheds, a flexible hydrologic modeling framework is being developed. The aim is to create a suite of models that move from parsimonious structures, concentrated on aggregated watershed response, to those focused on representing finer scale processes and distributed response. This framework will operate as a tool to investigate the link between hydrologic model predictive performance, uncertainty, model complexity, and observable hydrologic processes. Bayesian methods, and particularly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, are extremely useful in uncertainty assessment and parameter estimation of hydrologic models. However, these methods have some difficulties in implementation. In a traditional Bayesian setting, it can be difficult to reconcile multiple data types, particularly those offering different spatial and temporal coverage, depending on the model type. These difficulties are also exacerbated by sensitivity of MCMC algorithms to model initialization and complex parameter interdependencies. As a way of circumnavigating some of the computational complications, adaptive MCMC algorithms have been developed to take advantage of the information gained from each successive iteration. Two adaptive algorithms are compared is this study, the Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2001), and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm, developed by Haario et al (2006). While neither algorithm is truly Markovian, it has been proven that each satisfies the desired ergodicity and stationarity properties of Markov chains. Both algorithms were implemented as the uncertainty and parameter estimation framework for a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the

  11. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

    2000-02-28

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

  12. Simultaneous Assimilation of Multiple Data into a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model using Variational Methods for Hydrological Forecasting Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwanenberg, D.; Alvarado Montero, R.; Sensoy Sorman, A.; Krahe, P.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation methods applied to hydrological applications have primarily focused on assimilating streamflow and, more recently, soil moisture observations. Few cases actually assimilate both observations, and even fewer incorporate additional observations into the assimilation procedure. This is despite extensive developments in remote sensing information. Most research on data assimilation has focused on the implementation of sequential assimilation using Kalman filters. We present an alternative approach using variational methods based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) to simultaneously assimilate streamflow data and remote sensing information obtained from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) community, namely snow-covered area, snow water equivalent and soil moisture. This approach enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the introduction of noise into the model and the agreement between simulated and observed variables. The application of MHE on data assimilation is tested at two data-dense test sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. The assessment of results is based on the lead time performance of state variables of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model, i.e. not limited to the performance of streamflow forecast but also applicable to snow and soil moisture forecast skills. Results show a potential improvement on the performance of the forecasted streamflow when using a perfect time series of state variables generated through the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV. The assimilation of H-SAF data, in combination with streamflow, reduces the performance of the forecasted streamflow compared to the assimilation using only streamflow data. However, other forecasted quantities such as the snow water equivalent or soil moisture are improved. Recommendations based on the test cases are given following the length of the assimilation

  13. Multi-response calibration of a conceptual hydrological model in the semiarid catchment of Wadi al Arab, Jordan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rödiger, T.; Geyer, S.; Mallast, U.; Merz, R.; Krause, P.; Fischer, C.; Siebert, C.

    2014-02-01

    A key factor for sustainable management of groundwater systems is the accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are common tools for such estimations and widely used. As such models need to be calibrated against measured values, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. We present a nested multi-response calibration approach for a semi-distributed hydrological model in the semi-arid catchment of Wadi al Arab in Jordan, with sparsely available runoff data. The basic idea of the calibration approach is to use diverse observations in a nested strategy, in which sub-parts of the model are calibrated to various observation data types in a consecutive manner. First, the available different data sources have to be screened for information content of processes, e.g. if data sources contain information on mean values, spatial or temporal variability etc. for the entire catchment or only sub-catchments. In a second step, the information content has to be mapped to relevant model components, which represent these processes. Then the data source is used to calibrate the respective subset of model parameters, while the remaining model parameters remain unchanged. This mapping is repeated for other available data sources. In that study the gauged spring discharge (GSD) method, flash flood observations and data from the chloride mass balance (CMB) are used to derive plausible parameter ranges for the conceptual hydrological model J2000g. The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is used to validate the model. Results from modelling using a priori parameter values from literature as a benchmark are compared. The estimated recharge rates of the calibrated model deviate less than ±10% from the estimates derived from WTF method. Larger differences are visible in the years with high uncertainties in rainfall input data. The performance of the calibrated model during validation produces better results than applying the model with only a priori parameter

  14. Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

    2014-11-15

    We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems.

  15. Constraining a semi-distributed, conceptual hydrological model on evaporation - a case study for the Kulpawn River Basin, Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nijzink, Remko C.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Hrachowitz, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological models are typically calibrated on stream flow observations. However, such data are frequently not available. In addition, in many parts of the world not stream flow, but rather evaporation and transpiration are the largest fluxes from hydrological systems. Nevertheless, models trained to evaporation data are rare and typically rely on evaporation estimates that were themselves also derived from models, thereby considerably reducing the robustness of such approaches. In this study, we test the power of alternative approaches to constrain semi-distributed, conceptual models with information on evaporation in the absence of stream flow data. By gradually increasing the constraining information, the analysis is designed in a stepwise way. Both, the models and the relevance of the added information are evaluated for each step. As a first step, a large set of random parameter sets from uniform prior distributions is generated. Subsequently, parameter sets that cannot produce model outputs that satisfy the added constraints are discarded. The information content of these constraints will be gradually increased by making use of the Budyko framework: (1) the model has to reproduce the long-term average actual evaporation of the system, as indicated by the position in the Budyko framework, (2) the model, similarly, has to reproduce the long-term average seasonal variations of actual evaporation, (3) the model has to reproduce the temporal variations of evaporation, e.g. differences between 5-year mean evaporation of different periods, as indicated by different positions in the Budyko framework. As a last step, the model's temporal dynamics in the root zone moisture content are constrained by comparing it to time series of the NDII (Normalized Difference Infrared Index), which has recently been shown to be a close proxy for plant available water in the root zone and, thus, for transpiration rates ( Sriwongsitanon et al., 2015). The value of the information

  16. A Revised Conceptual Model for Hydrologic Controls on Stream Nitrate Concentrations (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, J. M.; Band, L. E.

    2013-12-01

    Long term weekly sampling of stream chemistry at Pond Branch, MD USA, a 37ha forested watershed in the Piedmont physiographic province, has revealed recurrent summer peaks in nitrate concentrations and loads. The timing and magnitude of nitrogen export has been associated with factors ranging from catchment initial and boundary conditions, ecosystem, and edaphic factors. However, at weekly temporal resolution, only seasonal inferences can be drawn as to the combination of biogeochemical and hydrological processes that create these patterns. This work examines the role of hydro-climatic variability on in-stream nitrate concentration using high temporal resolution sensor data. By examining periods of time throughout the growing season (early, mid, and late) we investigate how the combined roles of net nitrate production and hydrologic transport are controlled by hydro-climatic conditions. Pond Branch appears to shift from a nitrate supply driven to a transport driven system over the course of the growing season. At least one of the relatively large rises in 2011 in nitrate export occured at baseflow, over a period of just four days, which was coincident with increases in riparian zone soil oxygen. We show that the frequency of rainfall events could control the amount of nitrate that can accumulate in near-stream variable source regions in early summer and that by mid-summer, when net nitrate production is maximized and consumption is constant, rainfall magnitude and duration control flushing. The research suggests that nitrate concentration-discharge relationships are time variable over very short durations and load estimation techniques should evolve to include the diel structure in data.

  17. Hydrological models are mediating models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babel, L. V.; Karssenberg, D.

    2013-08-01

    Despite the increasing role of models in hydrological research and decision-making processes, only few accounts of the nature and function of models exist in hydrology. Earlier considerations have traditionally been conducted while making a clear distinction between physically-based and conceptual models. A new philosophical account, primarily based on the fields of physics and economics, transcends classes of models and scientific disciplines by considering models as "mediators" between theory and observations. The core of this approach lies in identifying models as (1) being only partially dependent on theory and observations, (2) integrating non-deductive elements in their construction, and (3) carrying the role of instruments of scientific enquiry about both theory and the world. The applicability of this approach to hydrology is evaluated in the present article. Three widely used hydrological models, each showing a different degree of apparent physicality, are confronted to the main characteristics of the "mediating models" concept. We argue that irrespective of their kind, hydrological models depend on both theory and observations, rather than merely on one of these two domains. Their construction is additionally involving a large number of miscellaneous, external ingredients, such as past experiences, model objectives, knowledge and preferences of the modeller, as well as hardware and software resources. We show that hydrological models convey the role of instruments in scientific practice by mediating between theory and the world. It results from these considerations that the traditional distinction between physically-based and conceptual models is necessarily too simplistic and refers at best to the stage at which theory and observations are steering model construction. The large variety of ingredients involved in model construction would deserve closer attention, for being rarely explicitly presented in peer-reviewed literature. We believe that devoting

  18. Geohydrology, water quality, and conceptual model of the hydrologic system Saco Landfill area, Saco, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nielsen, M.G.; Stone, J.R.; Hansen, B.P.; Nielsen, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    A geohydrologic study of the Saco Municipal Landfill in Saco, Maine, was done during 1993-94 to provide a preliminary interpretation of the geology and hydrology needed to guide additional studies at the landfill as part of the Superfund Program. The Saco Landfill, which was active from the early 1960's until 1986, includes three disposal areas on a-90-acre parcel. Sandy Brook, a small perennial stream, flows from north to south through the land- fill between the disposal areas. Discharge of leachate from the disposal areas to aquifers and streams has been documented since 1974. The landfill was declared a Superfund site in 1990 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Multiple lines of evidence are used in this study to indicate areas of ground-water contamination and sources of water flow in Sandy Brook. The geohydrologic system on the east side of Sandy Brook consists of an upper water-table aquifer and a lower aquifer, separated by a thick sequence of glaciomarine silt and clay. Depths to bedrock range from 60 to more than 200 ft (feet), on the basis of data from seismic-refraction studies and drilling. The upper aquifer, which is generally less than 15 ft thick, consists of fine- to medium-grained sand deposited in a shallow postglacial marine environment. The lower aquifer, which was deposited as a series of glaciomarine fans, contains two sediment types: well-sorted sand *and gravel and unsorted sediments called diamict sediments. East of Sandy Brook, the thickness of the lower aquifer ranges from 25 to 100 ft, based on drilling at the landfill. The glaciomarine silts and clays (known as the presumpscot Formation) range from 50 to more than 100 ft thick. West of Sandy Brook, the glaciomarine silt and clay is largely absent, and fractured bedrock is very close to land surface under one of the disposal areas in the northwestern part of the property. The lower aquifer is unconfined in the southwestern side of the study area; bedrock slopes towards the south

  19. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    PubMed

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications.

  20. A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, D.; Tian, F.; Lin, M.; Sivapalan, M.

    2015-02-01

    The complex interactions and feedbacks between humans and water are critically important issues but remain poorly understood in the newly proposed discipline of socio-hydrology (Sivapalan et al., 2012). An exploratory model with the appropriate level of simplification can be valuable for improving our understanding of the co-evolution and self-organization of socio-hydrological systems driven by interactions and feedbacks operating at different scales. In this study, a simplified conceptual socio-hydrological model based on logistic growth curves is developed for the Tarim River basin in western China and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such a co-evolutionary model. The study area is the main stream of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units. The socio-hydrological system is composed of four sub-systems, i.e., the hydrological, ecological, economic, and social sub-systems. In each modeling unit, the hydrological equation focusing on water balance is coupled to the other three evolutionary equations to represent the dynamics of the social sub-system (denoted by population), the economic sub-system (denoted by irrigated crop area ratio), and the ecological sub-system (denoted by natural vegetation cover), each of which is expressed in terms of a logistic growth curve. Four feedback loops are identified to represent the complex interactions among different sub-systems and different spatial units, of which two are inner loops occurring within each separate unit and the other two are outer loops linking the two modeling units. The feedback mechanisms are incorporated into the constitutive relations for model parameters, i.e., the colonization and mortality rates in the logistic growth curves that are jointly determined by the state variables of all sub-systems. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed with this conceptual model to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and its sensitivity to the

  1. Conceptual Model of Hydrologic and Thermal Conditions of the Eastbank Aquifer System near Rocky Reach Dam, Douglas County, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Heeswijk, Marijke; Cox, Stephen E.; Huffman, Raegan L.; Curran, Christopher A.

    2008-01-01

    2006 and seasonal pumpage patterns were relatively stable, reported trends of increasing temperatures of water pumped by the hatchery well field are most likely explained by increasing trends in river temperatures. Most of the water pumped by the hatchery well field recharges in an area west to southwest of the well field about 2 months prior to the time it is pumped from the aquifer. The northern extent of the hatchery well field may pump some colder water from a bedrock depression to the north and west of the well field. The conceptual model of hydrologic and thermal conditions is supported by analyses of historical water temperatures, water-level data collected on July 18, 2007, and dissolved-constituent and bacterial concentrations in samples collected on August 20?22, 2007.

  2. A Conceptual and Numerical Model for Thermal-Hydrological-Chemical Processes in the Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnenthal, Eric L.; Spycher, Nicolas F.; Conrad, Mark; Apps, John

    2003-07-01

    A numerical model was developed to predict the coupled thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes accompanying the Drift Scale Test (DST) at Yucca Mountain, NV. The DST has been closely monitored through the collection of gas, water, and mineral samples as well as thermal, hydrological, and mechanical measurements. A two-dimensional dual permeability model was developed to evaluate multiphase, multicomponent, reaction-transport processes in the fractured tuff. Comparisons between results using the TOUGHREACT code and measured water (e.g., pH, SiO2(aq), Na+, K+) and gas (CO2) compositions show that the model captures the chemical evolution in the DST. Non-reactive aqueous species (e.g., Cl) show strong dilution in fracture waters, indicating little fracture-matrix interaction. Silica concentrations are higher than in the initial pore water and show a trend of increasing reaction with fracture-lining silicates at higher temperatures. The narrow precipitation zone of predominantly amorphous silica observed above the heaters was also captured.

  3. Development of the Conceptual Models for Chemical Conditions and Hydrology Used in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    LARSON, KURT W

    2000-05-24

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a US Department of Energy (DOE) facility for the permanent disposal of defense-related transuranic (TRU) waste. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations specify that the DOE must demonstrate on a sound basis that the WIPP disposal system will effectively contain long-lived alpha-emitting radionuclides within its boundaries for 10,000 years following closure. In 1996, the DOE submitted the ''40 CFR Part 191 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant'' (CCA) to the EPA. The CCA proposed that the WIPP site complies with EPA's regulatory requirements. Contained within the CCA are descriptions of the scientific research conducted to characterize the properties of the WIPP site and the probabilistic performance assessment (PA) conducted to predict the containment properties of the WIPP disposal system. In May 1998, the EPA certified that the TRU waste disposal at the WIPP complies with its regulations. Waste disposal operations at WIPP commenced on March 28, 1999. The 1996 WIPP PA model of the disposal system included conceptual and mathematical representations of key hydrologic and geochemical processes. These key processes were identified over a 22-year period involving data collection, data interpretation, computer models, and sensitivity studies to evaluate the importance of uncertainty and of processes that were difficult to evaluate by other means. Key developments in the area of geochemistry were the evaluation of gas generation mechanisms in the repository; development of a model of chemical conditions in the repository and actinide concentrations in brine; selecting MgO backfill and demonstrating its effects experimentally; and determining the chemical retardation capability of the Culebra. Key developments in the area of hydrology were evacuating the potential for groundwater to dissolve the Salado Formation (the repository host formation), development of a regional model for

  4. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 2; Aggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schamschula, Marius; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Yates, Thomas; Laymen, Charles A.; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    This is a follow up on the preceding presentation by Crosson. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to aggregate the hydrological model outputs for soil moisture to allow comparison with measurements. Weighted neighborhood averaging methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. We will also discuss such complications as misalignment, rotation and other distortions introduced by a generalized sensor image.

  5. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  6. Hydrological mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon in a snow-dominated, forested watershed: Conceptualization and modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schelker, J.; Burns, Douglas A.; Weiler, M.; Laudon, H.

    2011-01-01

    The mobilization of mercury and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during snowmelt often accounts for a major fraction of the annual loads. We studied the role of hydrological connectivity of riparian wetlands and upland/wetland transition zones to surface waters on the mobilization of Hg and DOC in Fishing Brook, a headwater of the Adirondack Mountains, New York. Stream water total mercury (THg) concentrations varied strongly (mean = 2.25 ?? 0.5 ng L -1), and the two snowmelt seasons contributed 40% (2007) and 48% (2008) of the annual load. Methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations ranged up to 0.26 ng L-1, and showed an inverse log relationship with discharge. TOPMODEL-simulated saturated area corresponded well with wetland areas, and the application of a flow algorithm based elevation-above-creek approach suggests that most wetlands become well connected during high flow. The dynamics of simulated saturated area and soil storage deficit were able to explain a large part of the variation of THg concentrations (r2 = 0.53 to 0.72). In contrast, the simulations were not able to explain DOC variations and DOC and THg concentrations were not correlated. These results indicate that all three constituents, THg, MeHg, and DOC, follow different patterns at the outlet: (1) the mobilization of THg is primarily controlled by the saturation state of the catchment, (2) the dilution of MeHg suggests flushing from a supply limited pool, and (3) DOC dynamics follow a pattern different from THg dynamics, which likely results from differing gain and/or loss processes for THg and/or DOC within the Fishing Brook catchment. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  7. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. 3; Disaggregation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caulfield, John; Crosson, William L.; Inguva, Ramarao; Laymon, Charles A.; Schamschula, Marius

    1998-01-01

    This is a followup on the preceding presentation by Crosson and Schamschula. The grid size for remote microwave measurements is much coarser than the hydrological model computational grids. To validate the hydrological models with measurements we propose mechanisms to disaggregate the microwave measurements to allow comparison with outputs from the hydrological models. Weighted interpolation and Bayesian methods are proposed to facilitate the comparison. While remote measurements occur at a large scale, they reflect underlying small-scale features. We can give continuing estimates of the small scale features by correcting the simple 0th-order, starting with each small-scale model with each large-scale measurement using a straightforward method based on Kalman filtering.

  8. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  9. Model Building for Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David; Strobel, Johannes; Gottdenker, Joshua

    2005-01-01

    Conceptual change is a popular, contemporary conception of meaningful learning. Conceptual change describes changes in conceptual frameworks (mental models or personal theories) that learners construct to comprehend phenomena. Different theories of conceptual change describe the reorganization of conceptual frameworks that results from different…

  10. Conceptual IT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnaoudova, Kristina; Stanchev, Peter

    2015-11-01

    The business processes are the key asset for every organization. The design of the business process models is the foremost concern and target among an organization's functions. Business processes and their proper management are intensely dependent on the performance of software applications and technology solutions. The paper is attempt for definition of new Conceptual model of IT service provider, it could be examined as IT focused Enterprise model, part of Enterprise Architecture (EA) school.

  11. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  12. Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

    2011-12-01

    Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

  13. Modeling the Interactions between Hydrological Extremes, Water Management and Society.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Fabian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Kalantari, Zahra

    2016-04-01

    Over the past years, several studies have focused on exploring human impacts on the hydrological regime. Even though the dominant hydrological processes are mostly well understood, there are still several challenges related to modeling the coevolution of human impacts on (and responses to) hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts. Some initial modeling attempts have proved to capture the essential dynamics emerging from two-way feedbacks between hydrological and social processes. However, they have predominantly focused on flooding. This research aims to develop a new conceptual model unraveling the interplay between hydrological extremes (floods and droughts) and human societies in a changing climate. In particular, this socio-hydrological model aims at understanding, and predicting the dynamics of coupled human-water systems to explain and capture how the occurrence of hydrological extremes changes water management approach, and how such a change (in turn) mitigates the impacts of hydrological extremes. The conceptual model is then applied to a case study to test its ability in simulating the dynamics emerging from the interplay between hydrological and social processes.

  14. Mental Models, Conceptual Models, and Modelling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greca, Ileana Maria; Moreira, Marco Antonio

    2000-01-01

    Reviews science education research into representations constructed by students in their interactions with the world, its phenomena, and artefacts. Features discussions of mental models, conceptual models, and the activity of modeling. (Contains 30 references.) (Author/WRM)

  15. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  16. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. Part 1; Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Inguva, Ramarao; Schamschula, Marius; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean

  17. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  18. Hydrology and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands: Conceptual framework and field studies

    SciTech Connect

    Wilcox, B.P.; Breshears, D.D.

    1994-09-01

    Pinyon-juniper woodlands represent an important ecosystem in the semiarid western United States. Concern over the sustainability of, and management approaches for, these woodlands is increasing. As in other semiarid environments, water dynamics and vegetation patterns in pinyon-juniper woodlands are highly interrelated. An understanding of these relationships can aid in evaluating various management strategies. In this paper we describe a conceptual framework designed to increase our understanding of water and vegetation in pinyon-juniper woodlands. The framework comprises five different scales, at each of which the landscape is divided into {open_quotes}functional units{close_quotes} on the basis of hydrologic characteristics. The hydrologic behavior of each unit and the connections between units are being evaluated using an extensive network of hydrological and ecological field studies on the Pajarito Plateau in northern New Mexico. Data from these studies, coupled with application of the conceptual model, have led to the development of a number of hypotheses concerning the interrelationships of water and vegetation in pinyon-juniper woodlands.

  19. TUWmodel: an educational hydrologic model in R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parajka, J.; Rogger, M.; Kobler, U.; Salinas, J.; Nester, T.; Bloeschl, G.

    2013-12-01

    In order to show the advantages of using hydrologic models in R environment, particularly for educational purposes, we have implemented a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, originally written in Fortran language into R. This hydrologic model is used in many scientific studies and operational engineering applications in Austria. The model consisting of a snow, a soil moisture and a flow routing routine and run on a daily time step in a lumped or a semi-lumped way. The R environment allows to compile and use this model on different platforms and operating system, taking advantage of many additional routines already available in R (i.e. visualisation or optimisation tools). In this poster we present a set of examples that are used in a graduate level course on engineering hydrology at the Vienna University of Technology, which include: - Multi-objective calibration of the model; - Manual vs. automatic calibration; - Visualisation of model outputs and efficiencies; - Model application in ungauged catchments; - Operational runoff forecast. The flexibility of R is ideal for education, since students can easily play with the extensive list of existing functionalities and define new functions and extensions.

  20. Ecosystem conceptual model- Mercury

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpers, Charles N.; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Foe, Chris; Klasing, Susan; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.; Slotton, Darell G.; Windham-Myers, Lisamarie

    2008-01-01

    mercury conceptual model and its four submodels (1. Methylation, 2. Bioaccumulation, 3. Human Health Effects, and 4. Wildlife Heath Effects) can be used to understand the general relationships among drivers and outcomes associated with mercury cycling in the Delta. Several linkages between important drivers and outcomes have been identified as important but highly uncertain (i.e. poorly understood). For example, there may be significant wildlife health effect of mercury on mammals and reptiles in the Delta, but there is currently very little or no information about it. The characteristics of such linkages are important when prioritizing and funding restoration projects and associated monitoring in the Delta and its tributaries.

  1. Catchment classification by means of hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellebrand, Hugo; Ley, Rita; Casper, Markus

    2013-04-01

    An important hydrological objective is catchment classification that will serve as a basis for the regionalisation of discharge parameters or model parameters. The main task of this study is the development and assessment of two classification approaches with respect to their efficiency in catchment classification. The study area in western Germany comprises about 80 catchments that range in size from 8 km2 up to 1500 km2, covering a wide range of geological substrata, soils, landscapes and mean annual precipitation. In a first approach Self Organising Maps (SOMs) use discharge characteristics or catchment characteristics to classify the catchments of the study area. Next, a reference hydrological model calibrates the catchments of the study area and tests the possibilities of parameter transfer. Compared to the transfer of parameters outside a class, for most catchments the model performance improves when parameters within a class are transferred. Thus, it should be possible to distinguish catchment classes by means of a hydrological model. The classification results of the SOM are compared to the classification results of the reference hydrological model in order to determine the latter validity. The second approach builds on the first approach in such a way that it uses the Superflex Modelling Framework instead of only one reference model. Within this framework multiple conceptual model structures can be calibrated and adapted. Input data for each calibration of a catchment are hourly time series of runoff, precipitation and evaporation for at least eight years. The calibration of multiple models for each catchment and their comparison allows for the assessment of the influence of different model structures on model performance. Learning loops analyse model performance and adapt model structures accordingly with a view to performance improvement. The result of the modelling exercise is a best performing model structure for each catchment that serves as a basis

  2. eLac - Conceptual Model for Flood Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rata, Marius; Florentin Draghia, Aurelian; Drobot, Radu; Matreata, Marius; Corbus, Ciprian

    2015-04-01

    This article reviews the conceptual model of the decision support system (DSS) for flood management activities introduced in the scope of e-LAC project. Following the general system architecture which has an emphasize on the water management decision processes, hydrologic and hydraulic models are introduced and discussed according to their specific DSS integration potential. Three directions are discussed in dedicated sections corresponding to the main modules defined in the conceptual model : the Water Basin Management Module (mainly implements the management decision flow, but manages also data exchange between hydrologic modeling module and hydraulic modeling module, allow real time visualization for hydrological data), the Hydrologic Modeling Module (manages all the modeling functionalities of rainfalls - runoff processes, providing continuous hydrologic forecasts with a variable time-step depending on the actual basin situation) and the Hydraulic Modeling Module (computes the flood's waves routing having as boundary upstream conditions the discharge hydrographs, generated both by catchment's upper area, river tributaries and inter-basins, respectively the rating curves, water level hydrograph or water surface slope as downstream condition). The GIS concepts are contextually reviewed based on their use as geospatial database for water management modeling, integration within hydrologic time courses, hydraulic modeling (from both software and management perspective), expert knowledge or mathematical modeling results (knowledge database, rules).

  3. A Conceptual Approach to Assimilating Remote Sensing Data to Improve Soil Moisture Profile Estimates in a Surface Flux/Hydrology Model. Part 1; Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Inguva, Ramarao; Schamschula, Marius; Caulfield, John

    1998-01-01

    advantage of radar is its much higher resolution than passive microwave systems, but it is currently hampered by surface roughness effects and the lack of a good algorithm based on a single frequency and single polarization. In addition, its repeat frequency is generally low (about 40 days). In the meantime, two new radiometers offer some hope for remote sensing of soil moisture from space. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), launched in November 1997, possesses a 10.65 GHz channel and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on both the ADEOS-11 and Earth Observing System AM-1 platforms to be launched in 1999 possesses a 6.9 GHz channel. Aside from issues about interference from vegetation, the coarse resolution of these data will provide considerable challenges pertaining to their application. The resolution of TMI is about 45 km and that of AMSR is about 70 km. These resolutions are grossly inconsistent with the scale of soil moisture processes and the spatial variability of factors that control soil moisture. Scale disparities such as these are forcing us to rethink how we assimilate data of various scales in hydrologic models. Of particular interest is how to assimilate soil moisture data by reconciling the scale disparity between what we can expect from present and future remote sensing measurements of soil moisture and modeling soil moisture processes. It is because of this disparity between the resolution of space-based sensors and the scale of data needed for capturing the spatial variability of soil moisture and related properties that remote sensing of soil moisture has not met with more widespread success. Within a single footprint of current sensors at the wavelengths optimal for this application, in most cases there is enormous heterogeneity in soil moisture created by differences in landcover, soils and topography, as well as variability in antecedent precipitation. It is difficult to interpret the meaning of 'mean

  4. Conceptual and Numerical Models for UZ Flow and Transport

    SciTech Connect

    H. Liu

    2000-03-03

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the conceptual and numerical models used for modeling of unsaturated zone (UZ) fluid (water and air) flow and solute transport processes. This is in accordance with ''AMR Development Plan for U0030 Conceptual and Numerical Models for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Processes, Rev 00''. The conceptual and numerical modeling approaches described in this AMR are used for models of UZ flow and transport in fractured, unsaturated rock under ambient and thermal conditions, which are documented in separate AMRs. This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR), the Near Field Environment PMR, and the following models: Calibrated Properties Model; UZ Flow Models and Submodels; Mountain-Scale Coupled Processes Model; Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Seepage Model; Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model; Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (PA); and UZ Radionuclide Transport Models.

  5. Play with hydrologic models in R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viglione, A.; Parajka, J.; Nester, T.; Blöschl, G.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this poster is to show the advantages of building hydrologic models using the R environment for educational purposes. As an example we consider a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV type) that was originally written in the fortran language and is used in many scientific studies and practical engineering applications in Austria. A simplified version of the model was built into a R package and compiled for different platforms and operating systems. The model runs on a daily time step and consists of a snow routine, a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine. In this poster we present a set of examples that have been used in a graduate level course on engineering hydrology at the Vienna University of Technology. These include: - Multi-objective calibration of the model; - Manual vs. automatic calibration; - Visualisation of model outputs and efficiency; - Model application in ungauged catchments; - Operational forecast. The flexibility of R is ideal for education, since students can easily play with the extensive list of existing functionalities and define new functions and extensions.

  6. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: the rise and fall of the Ancient Maya civilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2016-04-01

    Different communities have followed different paths to arrive at their present situation as a consequence of the continuous, specific interactions between the hydrological and social system. The need to understand the current and future pathways to water security becomes more and more pressing, considering the increasingly delicate balance between water demand and water supply. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. Within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and drawing from the vulnerability literature, we conceptualize the interactions of an agricultural society with its environment. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a civilization who occupied the Maya Lowlands (parts of present day Mexico, Guatemala, Belize) from around 2000 BC to after AD 830. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the fall of the society is explored. We are able to simulate plausible feedbacks and find that a modest reduction in rainfall is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition in order to observe a collapse of 80 percent of the population. Equally important are actual population density and the impact of drought on crop growth. The model shows that reservoirs allow the society to grow larger, but also that the vulnerability to drought increases.

  7. Conceptual models of information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, L. J.

    1983-01-01

    The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

  8. Hydrological modelling of urbanized catchments: A review and future directions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadore, Elga; Bronders, Jan; Batelaan, Okke

    2015-10-01

    In recent years, the conceptual detail of hydrological models has dramatically increased as a result of improved computational techniques and the availability of spatially-distributed digital data. Nevertheless modelling spatially-distributed hydrological processes can be challenging, particularly in strongly heterogeneous urbanized areas. Multiple interactions occur between urban structures and the water system at various temporal and spatial scales. So far, no universal methodology exists for simulating the urban water system at catchment scale. This paper reviews the state of the art on the scientific knowledge and practice of modelling the urban hydrological system at the catchment scale, with the purpose of identifying current limitations and defining a blueprint for future modelling advances. We compare conceptual descriptions of urban physical hydrological processes on basis of a selection of 43 modelling approaches. The complexity of the urban water system at the catchment scale results in an incomplete understanding of the interaction between urban and natural hydrological systems, and in a high degree of uncertainty. Data availability is still a strong limitation since current modelling practice recognizes the need for high spatial and temporal resolution. Spatio-temporal gaps exist between the physical scales of hydrological processes and the resolution of applied models. Therefore urban hydrology is often simplified either as a study of surface runoff over impervious surfaces or hydraulics of piped systems. Many approaches target very specific objectives and the level of detail in representing physical processes is not consistent. Based on our analysis, we propose a blueprint for a highly complex integrated urban hydrological model. We regard flexibility, in terms of model structure and data assimilation, as the key characteristic for overcoming these limitations. We advocate the use of modular, process-based approaches, which are flexible and adaptable

  9. Model Breaking Points Conceptualized

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vig, Rozy; Murray, Eileen; Star, Jon R.

    2014-01-01

    Current curriculum initiatives (e.g., National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers 2010) advocate that models be used in the mathematics classroom. However, despite their apparent promise, there comes a point when models break, a point in the mathematical problem space where the model cannot,…

  10. Representing Watersheds with Physics Based Distributed Hydrologic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Downer, C. W.; Ogden, F. L.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologic models are useful tools for representing watershed response, helping to understand the dominant hydrologic processes in the watershed, and for estimating system response under different forcing, climatic, or physical conditions in the watershed. Model skill in predicting system response is most often demonstrated by history matching. Useful models for predicting system response under varying conditions must include the dominant processes controlling the system response. While many types of hydrologic models are capable of simulating watershed response, physics- based models are capable of simulating the actual physical conditions and responses within the watershed. There are a variety of physics-based hydrologic models available to the practicing community. Like simpler models, these models vary in formulation and complexity. Many of these models, such as the US Army of Corps of Engineers Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, allow flexibility in terms of both processes simulated and the formulation used to approximate the process. This flexibility allows the user to build the model according to his or her understanding or conceptualization, of the system, including processes that are thought to be important to system response. This also allows the user to use more rigorous methods of simulating critical processes and less rigorous methods of simulating non-critical processes or when data limitations preclude the use of more rigorous methods. In this presentation we will discuss how physics based models can, and have, been used to describe various hydrologic systems to both represent the physical processes in the system and the system response. Using examples from a variety of applications we will demonstrate and discuss the utility of utilizing a flexible physics-based model design for realizing watershed conceptualizations for hydrologic analysis.

  11. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  12. Conceptual Models for Search Engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendry, D. G.; Efthimiadis, E. N.

    Search engines have entered popular culture. They touch people in diverse private and public settings and thus heighten the importance of such important social matters as information privacy and control, censorship, and equitable access. To fully benefit from search engines and to participate in debate about their merits, people necessarily appeal to their understandings for how they function. In this chapter we examine the conceptual understandings that people have of search engines by performing a content analysis on the sketches that 200 undergraduate and graduate students drew when asked to draw a sketch of how a search engine works. Analysis of the sketches reveals a diverse range of conceptual approaches, metaphors, representations, and misconceptions. On the whole, the conceptual models articulated by these students are simplistic. However, students with higher levels of academic achievement sketched more complete models. This research calls attention to the importance of improving students' technical knowledge of how search engines work so they can be better equipped to develop and advocate policies for how search engines should be embedded in, and restricted from, various private and public information settings.

  13. A conceptual, distributed snow redistribution model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, S.; Holzmann, H.

    2015-01-01

    When applying conceptual hydrological models using a temperature index approach for snowmelt to high alpine areas often accumulation of snow during several years can be observed. Some of the reasons why these "snow towers" do not exist in nature are vertical and lateral transport processes. While snow transport models have been developed using grid cell sizes of tens to hundreds of square meters and have been applied in several catchments, no model exists using coarser cell sizes of one km2. In this paper we present an approach that uses only gravity and snow density as a proxy for the age of the snow cover and land-use information to redistribute snow in the catchment of Ötztaler Ache, Austria. This transport model is implemented in the distributed rainfall-runoff model COSERO and a comparison between the standard model without using snow transport and the updated version is done using runoff and MODIS data for model validation. While the signal of snow redistribution can hardly be seen in the binary classification compared with MODIS, snow accumulation over several years can be prevented. In a seven year period the classic model would lead to snow accumulation of approximately 2900 mm SWE in high elevated regions whereas the updated version of the model does not show accumulation and does also predict discharge more precisely leading to a Kling-Gupta-Efficiency of 0.93 instead of 0.9.

  14. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  15. A conceptual, distributed snow redistribution model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, S.; Holzmann, H.

    2015-11-01

    When applying conceptual hydrological models using a temperature index approach for snowmelt to high alpine areas often accumulation of snow during several years can be observed. Some of the reasons why these "snow towers" do not exist in nature are vertical and lateral transport processes. While snow transport models have been developed using grid cell sizes of tens to hundreds of square metres and have been applied in several catchments, no model exists using coarser cell sizes of 1 km2, which is a common resolution for meso- and large-scale hydrologic modelling (hundreds to thousands of square kilometres). In this paper we present an approach that uses only gravity and snow density as a proxy for the age of the snow cover and land-use information to redistribute snow in alpine basins. The results are based on the hydrological modelling of the Austrian Inn Basin in Tyrol, Austria, more specifically the Ötztaler Ache catchment, but the findings hold for other tributaries of the river Inn. This transport model is implemented in the distributed rainfall-runoff model COSERO (Continuous Semi-distributed Runoff). The results of both model concepts with and without consideration of lateral snow redistribution are compared against observed discharge and snow-covered areas derived from MODIS satellite images. By means of the snow redistribution concept, snow accumulation over several years can be prevented and the snow depletion curve compared with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data could be improved, too. In a 7-year period the standard model would lead to snow accumulation of approximately 2900 mm SWE (snow water equivalent) in high elevated regions whereas the updated version of the model does not show accumulation and does also predict discharge with more accuracy leading to a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.93 instead of 0.9. A further improvement can be shown in the comparison of MODIS snow cover data and the calculated depletion curve, where

  16. Towards methodical modelling: Differences between the structure and output dynamics of multiple conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knoben, Wouter; Woods, Ross; Freer, Jim

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual hydrologic models consist of a certain arrangement of spatial and temporal dynamics consisting of stores, fluxes and transformation functions, depending on the modeller's choices and intended use. They have the advantages of being computationally efficient, being relatively easy model structures to reconfigure and having relatively low input data demands. This makes them well-suited for large-scale and large-sample hydrology, where appropriately representing the dominant hydrologic functions of a catchment is a main concern. Given these requirements, the number of parameters in the model cannot be too high, to avoid equifinality and identifiability issues. This limits the number and level of complexity of dominant hydrologic processes the model can represent. Specific purposes and places thus require a specific model and this has led to an abundance of conceptual hydrologic models. No structured overview of these models exists and there is no clear method to select appropriate model structures for different catchments. This study is a first step towards creating an overview of the elements that make up conceptual models, which may later assist a modeller in finding an appropriate model structure for a given catchment. To this end, this study brings together over 30 past and present conceptual models. The reviewed model structures are simply different configurations of three basic model elements (stores, fluxes and transformation functions), depending on the hydrologic processes the models are intended to represent. Differences also exist in the inner workings of the stores, fluxes and transformations, i.e. the mathematical formulations that describe each model element's intended behaviour. We investigate the hypothesis that different model structures can produce similar behavioural simulations. This can clarify the overview of model elements by grouping elements which are similar, which can improve model structure selection.

  17. toolkit computational mesh conceptual model.

    SciTech Connect

    Baur, David G.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Cochran, William K.; Williams, Alan B.; Sjaardema, Gregory D.

    2010-03-01

    The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh is a software library intended to support massively parallel multi-physics computations on dynamically changing unstructured meshes. This domain of intended use is inherently complex due to distributed memory parallelism, parallel scalability, heterogeneity of physics, heterogeneous discretization of an unstructured mesh, and runtime adaptation of the mesh. Management of this inherent complexity begins with a conceptual analysis and modeling of this domain of intended use; i.e., development of a domain model. The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh software library is designed and implemented based upon this domain model. Software developers using, maintaining, or extending the Sierra Toolkit computational mesh library must be familiar with the concepts/domain model presented in this report.

  18. The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial

  19. Efficient Use of Prior Information to Calibrate the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) Hydrology Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) Hydrology Model by Brian E. Skahill and Charles W. Downer PURPOSE: The purpose of this... Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. These new capabilities enable the incorporation of soft data, or prior information (i.e., extra observations which...traditional hydrologic simulation models (viz., lumped and semidistributed model structures). Such models have the potential to predict with greater

  20. Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-01-01

    Abstract With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger. PMID:27840455

  1. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-08-01

    With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.

  2. Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse.

    PubMed

    Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-08-01

    With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.

  3. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2016-01-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human-induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human-hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding model conceptualization. There are no universally accepted laws of human behavior as there are for the physical systems; furthermore, a shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope and detail to remain contingent on and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate the utility of this process by revisiting a classic question in water resources engineering on reservoir operation rules: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result, per capita demand decreases during

  4. HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, H. H. G.

    2010-07-01

    Heterogeneity and complexity of hydrological processes offer substantial challenges to the hydrological modeller. Some hydrologists try to tackle this problem by introducing more and more detail in their models, or by setting-up more and more complicated models starting from basic principles at the smallest possible level. As we know, this reductionist approach leads to ever higher levels of equifinality and predictive uncertainty. On the other hand, simple, lumped and parsimonious models may be too simple to be realistic or representative of the dominant hydrological processes. In this commentary, a new model approach is proposed that tries to find the middle way between complex distributed and simple lumped modelling approaches. Here we try to find the right level of simplification while avoiding over-simplification. Paraphrasing Einstein, the maxim is: make a model as simple as possible, but not simpler than that. The approach presented is process based, but not physically based in the traditional sense. Instead, it is based on a conceptual representation of the dominant physical processes in certain key elements of the landscape. The essence of the approach is that the model structure is made dependent on a limited number of landscape classes in which the topography is the main driver, but which can include geological, geomorphological or land-use classification. These classes are then represented by lumped conceptual models that act in parallel. The advantage of this approach over a fully distributed conceptualisation is that it retains maximum simplicity while taking into account observable landscape characteristics.

  5. Remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dozier, J.; Estes, J. E.; Simonett, D. S.; Davis, R.; Frew, J.; Marks, D.; Schiffman, K.; Souza, M.; Witebsky, E.

    1977-01-01

    An energy balance snowmelt model for rugged terrain was devised and coupled to a flow model. A literature review of remote sensing applications to hydrologic modeling was included along with a software development outline.

  6. HESS Opinions "Topography driven conceptual modelling (FLEX-Topo)"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savenije, H. H. G.

    2010-12-01

    Heterogeneity and complexity of hydrological processes offer substantial challenges to the hydrological modeller. Some hydrologists try to tackle this problem by introducing more and more detail in their models, or by setting-up more and more complicated models starting from basic principles at the smallest possible level. As we know, this reductionist approach leads to ever higher levels of equifinality and predictive uncertainty. On the other hand, simple, lumped and parsimonious models may be too simple to be realistic or representative of the dominant hydrological processes. In this commentary, a new approach is proposed that tries to find the middle way between complex distributed and simple lumped modelling approaches. Here we try to find the right level of simplification while avoiding over-simplification. Paraphrasing Einstein, the maxim is: make a model as simple as possible, but not simpler than that. The approach presented is process based, but not physically based in the traditional sense. Instead, it is based on a conceptual representation of the dominant physical processes in certain key elements of the landscape. The essence of the approach is that the model structure is made dependent on a limited number of landscape classes in which the topography is the main driver, but which can include geological, geomorphological or land-use classification. These classes are then represented by lumped conceptual models that act in parallel. The advantage of this approach over a fully distributed conceptualisation is that it retains maximum simplicity while taking into account observable landscape characteristics.

  7. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of techniques were applied to the HL assessment unit composition in watersheds across the Pacific Northwest to aggregate the hydrologic behavior of the Hydrologic Landscapes from the assessment unit scale to the watershed scale. This non-trivial solution both emphasizes HL classifications within the watershed that provide that majority of moisture surplus/deficit and considers the relative position (upstream vs. downstream) of these HL classifications. A clustering algorithm was applied to the HL-based characterization of assessment units within 185 watersheds to help organize watersheds into nine classes hypothesized to have similar hydrologic behavior. The HL-based classes were used to organize and describe hydrologic behavior information about watershed classes and both predictions and validations were independently performed with regard to the general magnitude of six hydroclimatic signature values. A second cluster analysis was then performed using the independently calculated signature values as similarity metrics, and it was found that the six signature clusters showed substantial overlap in watershed class membership to those in the HL-based classes. One hypothesis set forward from thi

  8. Plant adaptive behaviour in hydrological models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Ploeg, M. J.; Teuling, R.

    2013-12-01

    Models that will be able to cope with future precipitation and evaporation regimes need a solid base that describes the essence of the processes involved [1]. Micro-behaviour in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system may have a large impact on patterns emerging at larger scales. A complicating factor in the micro-behaviour is the constant interaction between vegetation and geology in which water plays a key role. The resilience of the coupled vegetation-soil system critically depends on its sensitivity to environmental changes. As a result of environmental changes vegetation may wither and die, but such environmental changes may also trigger gene adaptation. Constant exposure to environmental stresses, biotic or abiotic, influences plant physiology, gene adaptations, and flexibility in gene adaptation [2-6]. Gene expression as a result of different environmental conditions may profoundly impact drought responses across the same plant species. Differences in response to an environmental stress, has consequences for the way species are currently being treated in models (single plant to global scale). In particular, model parameters that control root water uptake and plant transpiration are generally assumed to be a property of the plant functional type. Assigning plant functional types does not allow for local plant adaptation to be reflected in the model parameters, nor does it allow for correlations that might exist between root parameters and soil type. Models potentially provide a means to link root water uptake and transport to large scale processes (e.g. Rosnay and Polcher 1998, Feddes et al. 2001, Jung 2010), especially when powered with an integrated hydrological, ecological and physiological base. We explore the experimental evidence from natural vegetation to formulate possible alternative modeling concepts. [1] Seibert, J. 2000. Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4(2): 215

  9. Test plan for hydrologic modeling of protective barriers

    SciTech Connect

    Fayer, M.J.

    1990-03-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory prepared this test plan for the Model Applications and Validation Task of the Hanford Protective Barriers Program, which is managed by Westinghouse Hanford Company. The objectives of this plan are to outline the conceptual hydrologic model of protective barriers, discuss the available computer codes, describe the interrelationships between the modeling task and the other tasks of the Protective Barriers Program, present the barrier modeling tests, and estimate the schedule and costs of the hydrologic modeling task for planning purposes by the Protective Barriers Program. The purpose of the tests is to validate models that will be used to confirm the long-term performance of the barrier in minimizing drainage. A second purpose of the tests is to provide information to other parts of the Protective Barriers Program that require such information. 26 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Hydrologic Modeling of Boreal Forest Ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    1995-01-01

    This study focused on the hydrologic response, including vegetation water use, of two test regions within the Boreal-Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) region in the Canadian boreal forest, one north of Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, and the other near Thompson, Manitoba. Fluxes of moisture and heat were studied using a spatially distributed hydrology soil-vegetation-model (DHSVM).

  11. A Conceptual Data Model of Datum Systems

    PubMed Central

    McCaleb, Michael R.

    1999-01-01

    A new conceptual data model that addresses the geometric dimensioning and tolerancing concepts of datum systems, datums, datum features, datum targets, and the relationships among these concepts, is presented. Additionally, a portion of a related data model, Part 47 of STEP (ISO 10303-47), is reviewed and a comparison is made between it and the new conceptual data model.

  12. Covariance Models for Hydrological Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2014-05-01

    This methodological contribution aims to present some new covariance models with applications in the stochastic analysis of hydrological processes. More specifically, we present explicit expressions for radially symmetric, non-differentiable, Spartan covariance functions in one, two, and three dimensions. The Spartan covariance parameters include a characteristic length, an amplitude coefficient, and a rigidity coefficient which determines the shape of the covariance function. Different expressions are obtained depending on the value of the rigidity coefficient and the dimensionality. If the value of the rigidity coefficient is much larger than one, the Spartan covariance function exhibits multiscaling. Spartan covariance models are more flexible than the classical geostatatistical models (e.g., spherical, exponential). Their non-differentiability makes them suitable for modelling the properties of geological media. We also present a family of radially symmetric, infinitely differentiable Bessel-Lommel covariance functions which are valid in any dimension. These models involve combinations of Bessel and Lommel functions. They provide a generalization of the J-Bessel covariance function, and they can be used to model smooth processes with an oscillatory decay of correlations. We discuss the dependence of the integral range of the Spartan and Bessel-Lommel covariance functions on the parameters. We point out that the dependence is not uniquely specified by the characteristic length, unlike the classical geostatistical models. Finally, we define and discuss the use of the generalized spectrum for characterizing different correlation length scales; the spectrum is defined in terms of an exponent α. We show that the spectrum values obtained for exponent values less than one can be used to discriminate between mean-square continuous but non-differentiable random fields. References [1] D. T. Hristopulos and S. Elogne, 2007. Analytic properties and covariance functions of

  13. Conceptual and logical level of database modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunka, Frantisek; Matula, Jiri

    2016-06-01

    Conceptual and logical levels form the top most levels of database modeling. Usually, ORM (Object Role Modeling) and ER diagrams are utilized to capture the corresponding schema. The final aim of business process modeling is to store its results in the form of database solution. For this reason, value oriented business process modeling which utilizes ER diagram to express the modeling entities and relationships between them are used. However, ER diagrams form the logical level of database schema. To extend possibilities of different business process modeling methodologies, the conceptual level of database modeling is needed. The paper deals with the REA value modeling approach to business process modeling using ER-diagrams, and derives conceptual model utilizing ORM modeling approach. Conceptual model extends possibilities for value modeling to other business modeling approaches.

  14. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

    1994-01-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

  15. Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, S. ); Roads, J.O. ); Glatzmaier, G. )

    1994-08-01

    A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included. A 3-year GCM simulation with this more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow, hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere. 52 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. A Multivariate Model of Conceptual Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Heddy, Benjamin; Bailey, MarLynn; Farley, John

    2016-01-01

    The present study used the Cognitive Reconstruction of Knowledge Model (CRKM) model of conceptual change as a framework for developing and testing how key cognitive, motivational, and emotional variables are linked to conceptual change in physics. This study extends an earlier study developed by Taasoobshirazi and Sinatra ("J Res Sci…

  17. Assessing hydrologic model nonlinearity using response surface plots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuczera, George

    1990-10-01

    When a conceptual hydrologic model is calibrated to observed data, a posterior distribution summarizing uncertainty about model parameters can be derived. For models with more than two parameters, this distribution can be very awkward to work with. However, when a model is approximately linear over the region of parameter space with appreciable posterior density, the posterior distribution can be approximated by a multivariate normal distribution which provides a powerful tool for studying parameter uncertainty, testing hypotheses, and determining the reliability of model predictions. Model nonlinearity can be assessed using numerical measures such as those developed by Beale, and Bates and Watts. Complementing these measures are response surface plots. This study considers problems encountered when interpreting response surface plots for models with more than two parameters. It is argued that linearized conditional probability regions should be displayed on response surface plots to highlight the region of likely parameter values. Where significant parameter interaction exists, it is possible that only a small fraction of the response surface will display probable model parameter values. In such cases, generating the response surface in principal component planes is computationally more efficient. Two case studies using four-parameter conceptual hydrologic models illustrate these points and also demonstrate some of the pitfalls in relying solely on Beale's measure to assess model nonlinearity.

  18. Incorporating agricultural land cover in conceptual rainfall runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Euser, Tanja; Hrachowitz, Markus; Winsemius, Hessel; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating spatially variable information is a frequently discussed option to increase the performance of (semi) distributed conceptual rainfall runoff models. One of the methods to do this is by using these spatially variable information to delineate Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) within a catchment. This study tests whether the incorporation of an additional agricultural HRU in a conceptual hydrological model can better reflect the spatial differences in runoff generation and therefore improve the simulation of the wetting phase in autumn. The study area is the meso-scale Ourthe catchment in Belgium. A previous study in this area showed that spatial patterns in runoff generation were already better represented by incorporation of a wetland and a hillslope HRU, compared to a lumped model structure. The influences which are considered by including an agriculture HRU are increased drainage speed due to roads, plough pans and increased infiltration excess overland flow (drainage pipes area only limited present), and variable vegetation patterns due to sowing and harvesting. In addition, the vegetation is not modelled as a static resistance towards evaporation, but the Jarvis stress functions are used to increase the realism of the modelled transpiration; in land-surface models the Jarvis stress functions are already often used for modelling transpiration. The results show that an agricultural conceptualisation in addition to wetland and hillslope conceptualisations leads to small improvements in the modelled discharge. However, the influence is larger on the representation of spatial patterns and the modelled contributions of different HRUs to the total discharge.

  19. Conceptual model of the Klamath Falls, Oregon geothermal area

    SciTech Connect

    Prucha, R.H.; Benson, S.M.; Witherspoon, P.A.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last 50 years significant amounts of data have been obtained from the Klamath Falls geothermal resource. To date, the complexity of the system has stymied researchers, leading to the development of only very generalized hydrogeologic and geothermal models of the area. Recently, the large quantity of available temperature data have been re-evaluated, revealing new information on subsurface heat flow and locations of faults in the system. These inferences are supported by borehole, geochemical, geophysical, and hydrologic data. Based on re-evaluation of all available data, a detailed conceptual model for the Klamath Falls geothermal resource is proposed.

  20. Conceptual Model of the Klamath Falls, Oregon Geothermal Area

    SciTech Connect

    Prucha, R.H.; Benson, S.M.; Witherspoon, P.A.

    1987-01-20

    Over the last 50 years significant amounts of data have been obtained from the Klamath Falls geothermal resource. To date, the complexity of the system has stymied researchers, leading to the development of only very generalized hydrogeologic and geothermal models of the area. Recently, the large quantity of available temperature data have been re-evaluated, revealing new information on subsurface heat flow and locations of faults in the system. These inferences are supported by borehole, geochemical, geophysical, and hydrologic data. Based on re-evaluation of all available data, a detailed conceptual model for the Klamath Falls geothermal resource is proposed. 1 tab., 8 figs., 21 refs.

  1. Comparative analysis of conceptual models with error correction, artificial neural networks and committee models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corzo P, Gerald A.; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In operational flow forecasting conceptual or process-based hydrological models are typically used, and more and more in combination with precipitation forecasts complemented by corrected data assimilation or data-driven error corrector models. Alternatively, predictive data-driven models, alone or in ensembles, have been employed in different researches, claiming that they ensure high accuracy of flow forecasting; for this, an artificial neural network (ANN) seems to be the most developed in studies. In this paper a comparative analysis of different error correctors and ANN models is made to contribute on the selection of operational. For this we explore the performance of various model combinations forecasting single and multiple time steps. The HBV hydrological model with and without error correction, data-driven models (ANNs) and hybrid committee models integrating conceptual models and ANNs. The capabilities of a model at a single time step (simulation) as well as multiple forecast horizons are represented in comparative graphs. Limitations of the meteorological forecasts are not contemplated in the hydrological forecast scenarios, so precipitation hindcast information was used as input in all models. Single time step forecast simulation of the HBV has 30 percent higher error than a one day forecast ANN model. However, for forecast horizons higher than 3 days a high variability of models' accuracy is found, and the clear dominant performance of the HBV hydrological model with an ANN error corrector is observed. In the forecasts for up to two days the committee and error-corrected models were the best, followed by ANN, and the conceptual model without error correction. The conceptual HBV model alone shows to perform best on long term sequential or iterative forecasts.

  2. Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Clark, Martyn; Arheimer, Berit; Hay, Lauren E.; McMillan, Hilary; Kiang, Julie E.; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti; Bock, Andrew; Wagener, Thorsten; Farmer, William H.; Andréassian, Vazken; Attinger, Sabine; Viglione, Alberto; Knight, Rodney; Markstrom, Steven; Over, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

  3. Inter-comparison of subglacial hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Fleurian, Basile; Werder, Mauro

    2016-04-01

    The recent emergence of a number of subglacial hydrological models allows us to obtain theoretical insights on basal processes; for instance on the coupling between water pressure and the sliding of glaciers. In ice-flow models, it is relatively clear what the simulated physics ought to be. Conversely, the physical processes incorporated into subglacial hydrology models are diverse as it is yet unclear which ones are of relevance for a particular setting. An inter-comparison of hydrology models will therefore need a somewhat different approach to the one used in the many ice-flow model inter-comparisons (EISMINT, ISMIP, etc.). Here, we present a set of experiments that will allow the comparison of the behavior of different hydrology models. The design of the benchmark aims at allowing the participation of a wide range of models based on different physical approaches. We aim at evaluating the models with a focus on the effective pressure which has the most impact on the dynamics of glaciers. The aim of this inter-comparison is to provide modellers with the necessary data to make an informed decision on which subglacial hydrology model to use for a particular study.

  4. Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Clark, Martyn; Arheimer, Berit; Hay, Lauren E.; McMillan, Hilary; Kiang, Julie E.; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti; Bock, Andrew R.; Wagener, Thorsten; Farmer, William H.; Andreassian, Vazken; Attinger, Sabine; Viglione, Alberto; Knight, Rodney; Markstrom, Steven; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

  5. Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M. J. P.

    2012-09-01

    Computer models, especially conceptual models, are frequently used for catchment hydrology studies. Teaching hydrological modeling, however, is challenging, since students have to both understand general model concepts and be able to use particular computer programs when learning to apply computer models. Here we present a new version of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning) model. This software provides a user-friendly version that is especially useful for education. Different functionalities, such as an automatic calibration using a genetic algorithm or a Monte Carlo approach, as well as the possibility to perform batch runs with predefined model parameters make the software interesting especially for teaching in more advanced classes and research projects. Different teaching goals related to hydrological modeling are discussed and a series of exercises is suggested to reach these goals.

  6. Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff-model software package

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, J.; Vis, M. J. P.

    2012-05-01

    Computer models, and especially conceptual models, are frequently used for catchment hydrology studies. Teaching hydrological modeling, however, is challenging as students, when learning to apply computer models, have both to understand general model concepts and to be able to use particular computer programs. Here we present a new version of the HBV model. This software provides a user-friendly version which is especially useful for education. Different functionalities like an automatic calibration using a genetic algorithm or a Monte Carlo approach as well as the possibility to perform batch runs with predefined model parameters make the software also interesting for teaching in more advanced classes and research projects. Different teaching goals related to hydrological modeling are discussed and a series of exercises is suggested to reach these goals.

  7. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  8. Hydrologic modeling in dynamic catchments: A data assimilation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pathiraja, S.; Marshall, L.; Sharma, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2016-05-01

    The transferability of conceptual hydrologic models in time is often limited by both their structural deficiencies and adopted parameterizations. Adopting a stationary set of model parameters ignores biases introduced by the data used to derive them, as well as any future changes to catchment conditions. Although time invariance of model parameters is one of the hallmarks of a high quality hydrologic model, very few (if any) models can achieve this due to their inherent limitations. It is therefore proposed to consider parameters as potentially time varying quantities, which can evolve according to signals in hydrologic observations. In this paper, we investigate the potential for Data Assimilation (DA) to detect known temporal patterns in model parameters from streamflow observations. It is shown that the success of the DA algorithm is strongly dependent on the method used to generate background (or prior) parameter ensembles (also referred to as the parameter evolution model). A range of traditional parameter evolution techniques are considered and found to be problematic when multiple parameters with complex time variations are estimated simultaneously. Two alternative methods are proposed, the first is a Multilayer approach that uses the EnKF to estimate hyperparameters of the temporal structure, based on apriori knowledge of the form of nonstationarity. The second is a Locally Linear approach that uses local linear estimation and requires no assumptions of the form of parameter nonstationarity. Both are shown to provide superior results in a range of synthetic case studies, when compared to traditional parameter evolution techniques.

  9. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2009-07-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  10. Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2008-11-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  11. On the Use of Models in Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Marsily, G.

    1994-01-01

    This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

  12. Treatments of Precipitation Inputs to Hydrologic Models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hydrological models are used to assess many water resources problems from agricultural use and water quality to engineering issues. The success of these models are dependent on correct parameterization; the most sensitive being the rainfall input time series. These records can come from land-based ...

  13. Parameterization guidelines and considerations for hydrologic models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Imparting knowledge of the physical processes of a system to a model and determining a set of parameter values for a hydrologic or water quality model application (i.e., parameterization) is an important and difficult task. An exponential increase in literature has been devoted to the use and develo...

  14. Committee of machine learning predictors of hydrological models uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In prediction of uncertainty based on machine learning methods, the results of various sampling schemes namely, Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO)[1] used to build a predictive models. These models predict the uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a deterministic output from hydrological model [2]. Inputs to these models are the specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. For each sampling scheme three machine learning methods namely, artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression are applied to predict output uncertainties. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train different machine learning models which leads to several models (21 predictive uncertainty models). There is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison. A solution could be to form a committee of all models and to sue a dynamic averaging scheme to generate the final output [3]. This approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model HBV in the Nzoia catchment in Kenya. [1] N. Kayastha, D. L. Shrestha and D. P. Solomatine. Experiments with several methods of parameter uncertainty estimation in hydrological modeling. Proc. 9th Intern. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Tianjin, China, September 2010. [2] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press

  15. Hydrological Modeling and Repeatability with Brokering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easton, Z. M.; Collick, A.; Srinivasan, R.; Braeckel, A.; Nativi, S.; McAlister, C.; Wright, D. J.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Fuka, D.

    2014-12-01

    Data brokering aims to provide those in the hydrological sciences with access to relevant data to represent physical, biological, and chemical characteristics researchers need to accelerate discovery in their domain. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these models requires many different data sources from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, more suitable data products exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non domain scientist difficult and time consuming. We propose data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering increases the efficiency with which data are collected, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering significantly increases the repeatability of a study.

  16. Validation of a national hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMillan, H. K.; Booker, D. J.; Cattoën, C.

    2016-10-01

    Nationwide predictions of flow time-series are valuable for development of policies relating to environmental flows, calculating reliability of supply to water users, or assessing risk of floods or droughts. This breadth of model utility is possible because various hydrological signatures can be derived from simulated flow time-series. However, producing national hydrological simulations can be challenging due to strong environmental diversity across catchments and a lack of data available to aid model parameterisation. A comprehensive and consistent suite of test procedures to quantify spatial and temporal patterns in performance across various parts of the hydrograph is described and applied to quantify the performance of an uncalibrated national rainfall-runoff model of New Zealand. Flow time-series observed at 485 gauging stations were used to calculate Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias when simulating between-site differences in daily series, between-year differences in annual series, and between-site differences in hydrological signatures. The procedures were used to assess the benefit of applying a correction to the modelled flow duration curve based on an independent statistical analysis. They were used to aid understanding of climatological, hydrological and model-based causes of differences in predictive performance by assessing multiple hypotheses that describe where and when the model was expected to perform best. As the procedures produce quantitative measures of performance, they provide an objective basis for model assessment that could be applied when comparing observed daily flow series with competing simulated flow series from any region-wide or nationwide hydrological model. Model performance varied in space and time with better scores in larger and medium-wet catchments, and in catchments with smaller seasonal variations. Surprisingly, model performance was not sensitive to aquifer fraction or rain gauge density.

  17. An Empirical Study of Enterprise Conceptual Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anaby-Tavor, Ateret; Amid, David; Fisher, Amit; Ossher, Harold; Bellamy, Rachel; Callery, Matthew; Desmond, Michael; Krasikov, Sophia; Roth, Tova; Simmonds, Ian; de Vries, Jacqueline

    Business analysts, business architects, and solution consultants use a variety of practices and methods in their quest to understand business. The resulting work products could end up being transitioned into the formal world of software requirement definitions or as recommendations for all kinds of business activities. We describe an empirical study about the nature of these methods, diagrams, and home-grown conceptual models as reflected in real practice at IBM. We identify the models as artifacts of "enterprise conceptual modeling". We study important features of these models, suggest practical classifications, and discuss their usage. Our survey shows that the "enterprise conceptual modeling" arena presents a variety of descriptive models, each used by a relatively small group of colleagues. Together they form a "long tail" that extends from "drawings" on one end to "standards" on the other.

  18. Hydrological modelling in a "big data" era: a proof of concept of hydrological models as web services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; Vitolo, Claudia

    2013-04-01

    Dealing with the massive increase in global data availability of all sorts is increasingly being known as "big data" science. Indeed, largely leveraged by the internet, a new resource of data sets emerges that are so large and heterogeneous that they become awkward to work with. New algorithms, methods and models are needed to filter such data to find trends, test hypotheses, make predictions and quantify uncertainties. As a considerable share of the data relate to environmental processes (e.g., satellite images, distributed sensor networks), this evolution provides exciting challenges for environmental sciences, and hydrology in particular. Web-enabled models are a promising approach to process large and distributed data sets, and to provide tailored products for a variety of end-users. It will also allow hydrological models to be used as building blocks in larger earth system simulation systems. However, in order to do so we need to reconsider the ways that hydrological models are built, results are made available, and uncertainties are quantified. We present the results of an experimental proof of concept of a hydrological modelling web-service to process heterogeneous hydrological data sets. The hydrological model itself consists of a set of conceptual model routines implemented with on a common platform. This framework is linked to global and local data sets through web standards provided by the Open Geospatial Consortium, as well as to a web interface that enables an end-user to request stream flow simulations from a self-defined location. In essence, the proof-of-concept can be seen as an implementation of the "Models of Everywhere" concept introduced by Beven in 2007. Although the setup is operational and effectively simulates stream flow, we identify several bottlenecks for optimal hydrological simulation in a web-context. The major challenges we identify are related to (1) model selection; (2) uncertainty quantification, and (3) user interaction and

  19. Revising Hydrology of a Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Vine, Nataliya; Butler, Adrian; McIntyre, Neil; Jackson, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    Land Surface Models (LSMs) are key elements in guiding adaptation to the changing water cycle and the starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy and biogeochemical cycles. However, before this potential is realised, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. An important limitation is the simplistic or non-existent representation of the deep subsurface in LSMs; and another is the lack of connection of LSM parameterisations to relevant hydrological information. In this context, the paper uses a case study of the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to the Kennet region in Southern England. The paper explores the assumptions behind JULES hydrology, adapts the model structure and optimises the coupling with the ZOOMQ3D regional groundwater model. The analysis illustrates how three types of information can be used to improve the model's hydrology: a) observations, b) regionalized information, and c) information from an independent physics-based model. It is found that: 1) coupling to the groundwater model allows realistic simulation of streamflows; 2) a simple dynamic lower boundary improves upon JULES' stationary unit gradient condition; 3) a 1D vertical flow in the unsaturated zone is sufficient; however there is benefit in introducing a simple dual soil moisture retention curve; 4) regionalized information can be used to describe soil spatial heterogeneity. It is concluded that relatively simple refinements to the hydrology of JULES and its parameterisation method can provide a substantial step forward in realising its potential as a high-resolution multi-purpose model.

  20. Where and why do models fail? Perspectives from Oregon Hydrologic Landscape classification

    EPA Science Inventory

    A complete understanding of why rainfall-runoff models provide good streamflow predictions at catchments in some regions, but fail to do so in other regions, has still not been achieved. Here, we argue that a hydrologic classification system is a robust conceptual tool that is w...

  1. Snowmelt and runoff modelling of an Arctic hydrological basin in west Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bøggild, C. E.; Knudby, C. J.; Knudsen, M. B.; Starzer, W.

    1999-09-01

    This paper compares the performance of a conceptual modelling system and several physically-based models for predicting runoff in a large hydrological basin, Tasersuaq, in west Greenland. This basin, which is typical of many Greenland basins, is interesting because of the fast hydrological response to changing conditions. Due to the predominance of exposed bedrock surface and only minor occurrence of sediments and organic soils, there is little restraint to run-off, making the treatment of the snowmelt component of primary importance.Presently a conceptual modelling system, HBV, is applied in Greenland and also in most of the arctic regions of Scandinavia for operational forecasting. A general wish to use hydrological models for other purposes, such as to improve data collection and to gain insight into the hydrological processes has promoted interest in the more physically-based hydrological models. In this paper, two degree-day models, the Danish version of the physically-based SHE distributed hydrological modelling system (MIKE SHE) and the conceptual HBV model are compared with a new model that links MIKE SHE and a distributed energy balance model developed for this study, APUT.The HBV model performs the best overall simulation of discharge, which presently makes it most suited for general forecasting. The combination of MIKE SHE and APUT i.e. a physically based modelling system shows promising results by improving the timing of the initiation of spring flood, but does not perform as well throughout the remaining part of the snowmelt season. The modelling study shows that local parameters such as the snow depletion curve, the temporal snow albedo and perhaps also melt water storage need to be more precisely determined from field studies before physically-based modelling can be improved.

  2. Scale Dependence Between Hydrologic and Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morehead, M. D.; Marks, D.; Winstral, A.

    2003-12-01

    A disparity tends to exist between the scales simulated by atmospheric models intended as input for hydrologic modeling and those at which hydrologic modelers simulate processes especially snow accumulation and depletion in mountainous terrain. Two different models are used to generate input atmospheric data at various scales to drive a snow hydrology model and test the sensitivity of the snow processes at various forcing scales. One of the input atmospheric models is the nested grid atmospheric model, RAMS, developed at Colorado State University. The second input model uses IPW (Image Processing Workbench) to distribute measured climatic variables over complex landscapes. The snow energy balance model is the grid based ISNOBAL. The simulations are performed in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains of South-Western Idaho. RCEW is well instrumented with distributed rain gauges, meteorological sites, snow pillows, and discharge weirs. A Rain-on-Snow flooding event is used for the simulations which occurred during the end of December 1996 and the beginning of January 1997. The analysis is showing that atmospheric grids on the order of tens of kilometers miss much of the detailed atmospheric dynamics controlling snowfall in the complex terrain of the Owyhee Mountains and lead to incorrect hydrologic results if simplistic downscaling techniques are used. The detailed variability in the precipitation gauges is on the order of a kilometer or less and the snow pack variability is on even smaller scales. It is hypothesized that atmospheric forcing need to be modeled down to scales on the order of 1 kilometer and then redistributed by wind effects to accurately depict the complex conditions in mountainous terrain.

  3. A Conceptual Data Model for Flood Based on Cellular Automata Using Moving Object Data Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachmatullah, R. S.; Azizah, F. N.

    2017-01-01

    Flood is considered as the costliest natural disaster in Indonesia due to its frequent occurrences as well as the extensive damage that it causes. Several studies provide different flood prediction models based on various hydrological factors. A lot of these models use grid-to-grid approach, making them suitable to be modelled as cellular automata. This paper presents a conceptual data model for flood based on cellular automata model using spatio-temporal data model, especially the moving object data model, as the modelling approach. The conceptual data model serves as the model of data structures within an environment for flood prediction simulation. We describe two conceptual data models as the alternatives to model the data structures of flood model. We create the data model based on the study to the factors that constitute the flood models. The first conceptual data model alternative focuses on the cell/grid as the main entity type. The changes of the states of the cells are stored as moving integer. The second alternative emphasizes on flood as the main entity type. The changes of the flood area are stored as moving region. Both alternatives introduce some advantages and disadvantages and the choice rely on the purpose of the use of the data model. We present a proposal of the architecture of a flood prediction system using cellular automata as the modelling approach. As the continuation of this work, further design and implementation details must be provided.

  4. Optimizing hydrological consistency by incorporating hydrological signatures into model calibration objectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan A.

    2015-05-01

    The simulated outcome of a calibrated hydrologic model should be hydrologically consistent with the measured response data. Hydrologic modelers typically calibrate models to optimize residual-based goodness-of-fit measures, e.g., the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure, and then evaluate the obtained results with respect to hydrological signatures, e.g., the flow duration curve indices. The literature indicates that the consideration of a large number of hydrologic signatures has not been addressed in a full multiobjective optimization context. This research develops a model calibration methodology to achieve hydrological consistency using goodness-of-fit measures, many hydrological signatures, as well as a level of acceptability for each signature. The proposed framework relies on a scoring method that transforms any hydrological signature to a calibration objective. These scores are used to develop the hydrological consistency metric, which is maximized to obtain hydrologically consistent parameter sets during calibration. This consistency metric is implemented in different signature-based calibration formulations that adapt the sampling according to hydrologic signature values. These formulations are compared with the traditional formulations found in the literature for seven case studies. The results reveal that Pareto dominance-based multiobjective optimization yields the highest level of consistency among all formulations. Furthermore, it is found that the choice of optimization algorithms does not affect the findings of this research.

  5. Use of Numerical Groundwater Modeling to Evaluate Uncertainty in Conceptual Models of Recharge and Hydrostratigraphy

    SciTech Connect

    Pohlmann, Karl; Ye, Ming; Pohll, Greg; Chapman, Jenny

    2007-01-19

    Numerical groundwater models are based on conceptualizations of hydrogeologic systems that are by necessity developed from limited information and therefore are simplifications of real conditions. Each aspect (e.g. recharge, hydrostratigraphy, boundary conditions) of the groundwater model is often based on a single conceptual model that is considered to be the best representation given the available data. However, the very nature of their construction means that each conceptual model is inherently uncertain and the available information may be insufficient to refute plausible alternatives, thereby raising the possibility that the flow model is underestimating overall uncertainty. In this study we use the Death Valley Regional Flow System model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey as a framework to predict regional groundwater flow southward into Yucca Flat on the Nevada Test Site. An important aspect of our work is to evaluate the uncertainty associated with multiple conceptual models of groundwater recharge and subsurface hydrostratigraphy and quantify the impacts of this uncertainty on model predictions. In our study, conceptual model uncertainty arises from two sources: (1) alternative interpretations of the hydrostratigraphy in the northern portion of Yucca Flat where, owing to sparse data, the hydrogeologic system can be conceptualized in different ways, and (2) uncertainty in groundwater recharge in the region as evidenced by the existence of several independent approaches for estimating this aspect of the hydrologic system. The composite prediction of groundwater flow is derived from the regional model that formally incorporates the uncertainty in these alternative input models using the maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging method. An assessment of the joint predictive uncertainty of the input conceptual models is also produced. During this process, predictions of the alternative models are weighted by model probability, which is the degree of

  6. Review of GIS Applications in Hydrologic Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-05-01

    valves, and can greatly improve the ability of the GIS and hydrologic model in prediction of flow paths in an urban setting. 5 Brooner et al. (1987...expands on the concept and applies the cellular automata computational concept to predefine drainage paths. The iterative technique is based on...or distributed modeling . Djokic and Maidment (1991) use a TIN system to describe urban drainage in terms of tube networks. The overland flows are

  7. Improving subsurface hydrology in Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volk, J. M.; Clark, M. P.; Swenson, S. C.; Lawrence, D. M.; Tyler, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic processes that govern storage and transport of soil water and groundwater can have strong dynamic relationships with biogeochemical and atmospheric processes. This understanding has lead to a push to improve subsurface hydrologic parametrization in Earth System Models. Here we present results related to improving the implementation of soil moisture distribution, groundwater recharge/discharge, and subsurface drainage in the Community Land Model (CLM) which is the land surface model in the Community Earth System Model. First we identified geo-climatically different locations around the world to develop test cases. For each case we compare the vertical soil moisture distribution from the different implementations of 1D Richards equation, considering the boundary conditions, the treatment of the groundwater sink term, the vertical discretization, and the time stepping schemes. Generally, large errors in the hydrologic mass balance within the soil column occur when there is a large vertical gradient in soil moisture or when there is a shallow water table within a soil column. We then test the sensitivity of the algorithmic parameters that control temporal discretization and error tolerance of the adaptive time-stepping scheme to help optimize its computational efficiency. In addition, we vary the spatial discretization of soil layers (i.e. quantity of layers and their thicknesses) to better understand the sensitivity of vertical discretization of soil columns on soil moisture variability in ESMs. We present multivariate and multi-scale evaluation for the different model options and suggest ways to move forward with future model improvements.

  8. Simultaneous calibration of hydrological models in geographical space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bárdossy, András; Huang, Yingchun; Wagener, Thorsten

    2016-07-01

    Hydrological models are usually calibrated for selected catchments individually using specific performance criteria. This procedure assumes that the catchments show individual behavior. As a consequence, the transfer of model parameters to other ungauged catchments is problematic. In this paper, the possibility of transferring part of the model parameters was investigated. Three different conceptual hydrological models were considered. The models were restructured by introducing a new parameter η which exclusively controls water balances. This parameter was considered as individual to each catchment. All other parameters, which mainly control the dynamics of the discharge (dynamical parameters), were considered for spatial transfer. Three hydrological models combined with three different performance measures were used in three different numerical experiments to investigate this transferability. The first numerical experiment, involving individual calibration of the models for 15 selected MOPEX catchments, showed that it is difficult to identify which catchments share common dynamical parameters. Parameters of one catchment might be good for another catchment but not the opposite. In the second numerical experiment, a common spatial calibration strategy was used. It was explicitly assumed that the catchments share common dynamical parameters. This strategy leads to parameters which perform well on all catchments. A leave-one-out common calibration showed that in this case a good parameter transfer to ungauged catchments can be achieved. In the third numerical experiment, the common calibration methodology was applied for 96 catchments. Another set of 96 catchments was used to test the transfer of common dynamical parameters. The results show that even a large number of catchments share similar dynamical parameters. The performance is worse than those obtained by individual calibration, but the transfer to ungauged catchments remains possible. The performance of the

  9. Towards Better Coupling of Hydrological Simulation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penton, D.; Stenson, M.; Leighton, B.; Bridgart, R.

    2012-12-01

    Standards for model interoperability and scientific workflow software provide techniques and tools for coupling hydrological simulation models. However, model builders are yet to realize the benefits of these and continue to write ad hoc implementations and scripts. Three case studies demonstrate different approaches to coupling models, the first using tight interfaces (OpenMI), the second using a scientific workflow system (Trident) and the third using a tailored execution engine (Delft Flood Early Warning System - Delft-FEWS). No approach was objectively better than any other approach. The foremost standard for coupling hydrological models is the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI), which defines interfaces for models to interact. An implementation of the OpenMI standard involves defining interchange terms and writing a .NET/Java wrapper around the model. An execution wrapper such as OatC.GUI or Pipistrelle executes the models. The team built two OpenMI implementations for eWater Source river system models. Once built, it was easy to swap river system models. The team encountered technical challenges with versions of the .Net framework (3.5 calling 4.0) and with the performance of the execution wrappers when running daily simulations. By design, the OpenMI interfaces are general, leaving significant decisions around the semantics of the interfaces to the implementer. Increasingly, scientific workflow tools such as Kepler, Taverna and Trident are able to replace custom scripts. These tools aim to improve the provenance and reproducibility of processing tasks. In particular, Taverna and the myExperiment website have had success making many bioinformatics workflows reusable and sharable. The team constructed Trident activities for hydrological software including IQQM, REALM and eWater Source. They built an activity generator for model builders to build activities for particular river systems. The models were linked at a simulation level, without any daily time

  10. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorgan, D.; Bacu, V.; Mihon, D.; Rodila, D.; Abbaspour, K.; Rouholahnejad, E.

    2012-07-01

    The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool), developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  11. Monthly Water Balance Model Hydrology Futures

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bock, Andy; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1950 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.5066/F7542KMD). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized for hydrologic response units and aggregated at points of interest on a stream network. Results were then organized into the Monthly Water Balance Hydrology Futures database, an open-access database using netCDF format (http://cida-eros-mows1.er.usgs.gov/thredds/dodsC/nwb_pub/).  Methods used to calibrate and parameterize the MWBM are detailed in the Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)  paper "Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States" by Bock and others (2016).  See the discussion paper link in the "Related External Resources" section for access.  Supplemental data files related to the plots and data analysis in Bock and others (2016) can be found in the HESS-2015-325.zip folder in the "Attached Files" section.  Detailed information on the files and data can be found in the ReadMe.txt contained within the zipped folder. Recommended citation of discussion paper:Bock, A.R., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Markstrom, S.L., and Atkinson, R.D., 2016, Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, 2861-2876, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2861-2016, 2016

  12. From spatially variable streamflow to distributed hydrological models: Analysis of key modeling decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenicia, Fabrizio; Kavetski, Dmitri; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Pfister, Laurent

    2016-02-01

    This paper explores the development and application of distributed hydrological models, focusing on the key decisions of how to discretize the landscape, which model structures to use in each landscape element, and how to link model parameters across multiple landscape elements. The case study considers the Attert catchment in Luxembourg—a 300 km2 mesoscale catchment with 10 nested subcatchments that exhibit clearly different streamflow dynamics. The research questions are investigated using conceptual models applied at hydrologic response unit (HRU) scales (1-4 HRUs) on 6 hourly time steps. Multiple model structures are hypothesized and implemented using the SUPERFLEX framework. Following calibration, space/time model transferability is tested using a split-sample approach, with evaluation criteria including streamflow prediction error metrics and hydrological signatures. Our results suggest that: (1) models using geology-based HRUs are more robust and capture the spatial variability of streamflow time series and signatures better than models using topography-based HRUs; this finding supports the hypothesis that, in the Attert, geology exerts a stronger control than topography on streamflow generation, (2) streamflow dynamics of different HRUs can be represented using distinct and remarkably simple model structures, which can be interpreted in terms of the perceived dominant hydrologic processes in each geology type, and (3) the same maximum root zone storage can be used across the three dominant geological units with no loss in model transferability; this finding suggests that the partitioning of water between streamflow and evaporation in the study area is largely independent of geology and can be used to improve model parsimony. The modeling methodology introduced in this study is general and can be used to advance our broader understanding and prediction of hydrological behavior, including the landscape characteristics that control hydrologic response, the

  13. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  14. Testing conceptual and physically based soil hydrology schemes against observations for the Amazon Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.; Boisier, J. P.; Peng, S.; De Weirdt, M.; Verbeeck, H.

    2014-06-01

    This study analyzes the performance of the two soil hydrology schemes of the land surface model ORCHIDEE in estimating Amazonian hydrology and phenology for five major sub-basins (Xingu, Tapajós, Madeira, Solimões and Negro), during the 29-year period 1980-2008. A simple 2-layer scheme with a bucket topped by an evaporative layer is compared to an 11-layer diffusion scheme. The soil schemes are coupled with a river routing module and a process model of plant physiology, phenology and carbon dynamics. The simulated water budget and vegetation functioning components are compared with several data sets at sub-basin scale. The use of the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme does not significantly change the Amazonian water budget simulation when compared to the 2-layer soil scheme (+3.1 and -3.0% in evapotranspiration and river discharge, respectively). However, the higher water-holding capacity of the soil and the physically based representation of runoff and drainage in the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme result in more dynamic soil water storage variation and improved simulation of the total terrestrial water storage when compared to GRACE satellite estimates. The greater soil water storage within the 11-layer scheme also results in increased dry-season evapotranspiration (+0.5 mm d-1, +17%) and improves river discharge simulation in the southeastern sub-basins such as the Xingu. Evapotranspiration over this sub-basin is sustained during the whole dry season with the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme, whereas the 2-layer scheme limits it after only 2 dry months. Lower plant drought stress simulated by the 11-layer soil diffusion scheme leads to better simulation of the seasonal cycle of photosynthesis (GPP) when compared to a GPP data-driven model based on eddy covariance and satellite greenness measurements. A dry-season length between 4 and 7 months over the entire Amazon Basin is found to be critical in distinguishing differences in hydrological feedbacks between the

  15. Leading Generative Groups: A Conceptual Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Manuel; Sobel-Lojeski, Karen A.; Reilly, Richard R.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a conceptual model of leadership in generative groups. Generative groups have diverse team members who are expected to develop innovative solutions to complex, unstructured problems. The challenge for leaders of generative groups is to balance (a) establishing shared goals with recognizing members' vested interests, (b)…

  16. Multiple Mentor Model: A Conceptual Framework.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burlew, Larry D.

    1991-01-01

    Focuses on developing a conceptual framework for the mentoring process. The model is based on the premise that mentoring is not a single event in the life of a worker but rather several events with several different levels of mentoring. (Author)

  17. Identifying Hydrologic Processes in Agricultural Watersheds Using Precipitation-Runoff Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linard, Joshua I.; Wolock, David M.; Webb, Richard M.T.; Wieczorek, Michael

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals applied to agricultural fields will assist in designing the most effective strategies to prevent water-quality impairments. At a watershed scale, the processes controlling the fate and transport of agricultural chemicals are generally understood only conceptually. To examine the applicability of conceptual models to the processes actually occurring, two precipitation-runoff models - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) - were applied in different agricultural settings of the contiguous United States. Each model, through different physical processes, simulated the transport of water to a stream from the surface, the unsaturated zone, and the saturated zone. Models were calibrated for watersheds in Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska. The calibrated sets of input parameters for each model at each watershed are discussed, and the criteria used to validate the models are explained. The SWAT and WEBMOD model results at each watershed conformed to each other and to the processes identified in each watershed's conceptual hydrology. In Maryland the conceptual understanding of the hydrology indicated groundwater flow was the largest annual source of streamflow; the simulation results for the validation period confirm this. The dominant source of water to the Indiana watershed was thought to be tile drains. Although tile drains were not explicitly simulated in the SWAT model, a large component of streamflow was received from lateral flow, which could be attributed to tile drains. Being able to explicitly account for tile drains, WEBMOD indicated water from tile drains constituted most of the annual streamflow in the Indiana watershed. The Nebraska models indicated annual streamflow was composed primarily of perennial groundwater flow and infiltration-excess runoff, which conformed to the conceptual hydrology developed for that watershed. The hydrologic

  18. Spatial resolution considerations for urban hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krebs, G.; Kokkonen, T.; Valtanen, M.; Setälä, H.; Koivusalo, H.

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological model simulations can be applied to evaluate the performance of low impact development (LID) tools in urban areas. However, the assessment for large-scale urban areas remains a challenge due to the required high spatial resolution and limited availability of field measurements for model calibration. This study proposes a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model (SWMM) with sufficiently high spatial resolution and direct accessibility of model parameters for LID performance simulation applicable to a large-scale ungauged urban area. Based on calibrated high-resolution models for three small-scale study catchments (6-12 ha), we evaluated how constraints implied by large-scale urban modelling, such as data limitations, affect the model results. The high-resolution surface representation, resulting in subcatchments of uniform surface types, reduced the number of calibration parameters. Calibration conducted independently for all catchments yielded similar parameter values for same surface types in each study catchment. These results suggest the applicability of the parameter values calibrated for high resolution models to be regionalized to larger, ungauged urban areas. The accessibility of surface specific model parameters for LID simulation is then also retained. Conducted perturbations in spatial resolution through sewer network truncation showed that while the runoff volume was mostly unaffected by resolution perturbations, lower resolutions resulted in over-simulation of peak flows due to excessively rapid catchment response to storm events. Our results suggest that a hydrological model where parameter values are adopted from high-resolution models and that is developed based on a minimum conduit diameter of 300 mm provides good simulation performance and is applicable to large-scale urban areas with reasonable effort.

  19. Conceptual Models of Frontal Cyclones.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eagleman, Joe R.

    1981-01-01

    This discussion of weather models uses maps to illustrate the differences among three types of frontal cyclones (long wave, short wave, and troughs). Awareness of these cyclones can provide clues to atmospheric conditions which can lead toward accurate weather forecasting. (AM)

  20. A conceptual model for megaprogramming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tracz, Will

    1990-01-01

    Megaprogramming is component-based software engineering and life-cycle management. Magaprogramming and its relationship to other research initiatives (common prototyping system/common prototyping language, domain specific software architectures, and software understanding) are analyzed. The desirable attributes of megaprogramming software components are identified and a software development model and resulting prototype megaprogramming system (library interconnection language extended by annotated Ada) are described.

  1. The conceptualization model problem—surprise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bredehoeft, John

    2005-03-01

    The foundation of model analysis is the conceptual model. Surprise is defined as new data that renders the prevailing conceptual model invalid; as defined here it represents a paradigm shift. Limited empirical data indicate that surprises occur in 20-30% of model analyses. These data suggest that groundwater analysts have difficulty selecting the appropriate conceptual model. There is no ready remedy to the conceptual model problem other than (1) to collect as much data as is feasible, using all applicable methods—a complementary data collection methodology can lead to new information that changes the prevailing conceptual model, and (2) for the analyst to remain open to the fact that the conceptual model can change dramatically as more information is collected. In the final analysis, the hydrogeologist makes a subjective decision on the appropriate conceptual model. The conceptualization problem does not render models unusable. The problem introduces an uncertainty that often is not widely recognized. Conceptual model uncertainty is exacerbated in making long-term predictions of system performance. C'est le modèle conceptuel qui se trouve à base d'une analyse sur un modèle. On considère comme une surprise lorsque le modèle est invalidé par des données nouvelles; dans les termes définis ici la surprise est équivalente à un change de paradigme. Des données empiriques limitées indiquent que les surprises apparaissent dans 20 à 30% des analyses effectuées sur les modèles. Ces données suggèrent que l'analyse des eaux souterraines présente des difficultés lorsqu'il s'agit de choisir le modèle conceptuel approprié. Il n'existe pas un autre remède au problème du modèle conceptuel que: (1) rassembler autant des données que possible en utilisant toutes les méthodes applicables—la méthode des données complémentaires peut conduire aux nouvelles informations qui vont changer le modèle conceptuel, et (2) l'analyste doit rester ouvert au fait

  2. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  3. Efficient Calibration of Computationally Intensive Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulin, A.; Huot, P. L.; Audet, C.; Alarie, S.

    2015-12-01

    A new hybrid optimization algorithm for the calibration of computationally-intensive hydrological models is introduced. The calibration of hydrological models is a blackbox optimization problem where the only information available to the optimization algorithm is the objective function value. In the case of distributed hydrological models, the calibration process is often known to be hampered by computational efficiency issues. Running a single simulation may take several minutes and since the optimization process may require thousands of model evaluations, the computational time can easily expand to several hours or days. A blackbox optimization algorithm, which can substantially improve the calibration efficiency, has been developed. It merges both the convergence analysis and robust local refinement from the Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) algorithm, and the global exploration capabilities from the heuristic strategies used by the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm. The new algorithm is applied to the calibration of the distributed and computationally-intensive HYDROTEL model on three different river basins located in the province of Quebec (Canada). Two calibration problems are considered: (1) calibration of a 10-parameter version of HYDROTEL, and (2) calibration of a 19-parameter version of the same model. A previous study by the authors had shown that the original version of DDS was the most efficient method for the calibration of HYDROTEL, when compared to the MADS and the very well-known SCEUA algorithms. The computational efficiency of the hybrid DDS-MADS method is therefore compared with the efficiency of the DDS algorithm based on a 2000 model evaluations budget. Results show that the hybrid DDS-MADS method can reduce the total number of model evaluations by 70% for the 10-parameter version of HYDROTEL and by 40% for the 19-parameter version without compromising the quality of the final objective function value.

  4. Urban Hydrology and Water Quality Modeling - Resolution Modeling Comparison for Water Quantity and Quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, T. J.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization presents challenging water resource problems for communities worldwide. The hydromodifications associated with urbanization results in increased runoff rates and volumes and increased peak flows. These hydrologic changes can lead to increased erosion and stream destabilization, decreased evapotranspiration, decreased ground water recharge, increases in pollutant loading, and localized anthropogenic climate change or Urban Heat Islands. Stormwater represents a complex and dynamic component of the urban water cycle that requires careful mitigation. With the implementation of Phase II rules under the CWA, stormwater management is shifting from a drainage-efficiency focus to a natural systems focus. The natural system focus, referred to as Low Impact Development (LID), or Green Infrastructure, uses best management practices (BMPs) to reduce the impacts caused by urbanization hydromodification. Large-scale patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex and it is unclear what the large-scale impacts of green infrastructure are on the water cycle. High resolution physically based hydrologic models can be used to more accurately simulate the urban hydrologic cycle. These types of models tend to be more dynamic and allow for greater flexibility in evaluating and accounting for various hydrologic processes in the urban environment that may be lost with lower resolution conceptual models. We propose to evaluate the effectiveness of high resolution models to accurately represent and determine the urban hydrologic cycle with the overall goal of being able to accurately assess the impacts of LID BMPs in urban environments. We propose to complete a rigorous model intercomparison between ParFlow and FLO-2D. Both of these models can be scaled to higher resolutions, allow for rainfall to be spatially and temporally input, and solve the shallow water equations. Each model is different in the way it accounts for infiltration, initial abstraction losses

  5. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The past year saw a re-emphasis on the practical aspects of hydrology due to regional drought patterns, urban flooding, and agricultural and energy demands on water resources. Highlights of hydrologic symposia, publications, and events are included. (MA)

  6. A dynamic conceptual model of care planning.

    PubMed

    Elf, Marie; Poutilova, Maria; Ohrn, Kerstin

    2007-12-01

    This article presents a conceptual model of the care planning process developed to identify the hypothetical links between structural, process and outcome factors important to the quality of the process. Based on existing literature, it was hypothesized that a thorough assessment of patients' health needs is an important prerequisite when making a rigorous diagnosis and preparing plans for various care interventions. Other important variables that are assumed to influence the quality of the process are the care culture and professional knowledge. The conceptual model was developed as a system dynamics causal loop diagram as a first essential step towards a computed model. System dynamics offers the potential to describe processes in a nonlinear, dynamic way and is suitable for exploring, comprehending, learning and communicating complex ideas about care processes.

  7. Modeling the hydrological behavior of a karst spring using a nonlinear reservoir-pipe model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Yong; Wu, Jichun; Jiang, Guanghui

    2015-08-01

    Karst aquifers are commonly simulated based on conceptual models. However, most karst conceptual models hardly consider the function of turbulent conduits. The conduit network acts as the main draining passage of the karst aquifer and may also have a strong influence on the hydrological processes, especially during storm events. A conceptual model with a nonlinear reservoir and a turbulent pipe (representing the conduit system) in series is proposed according to the basic structure of a typical karst aquifer, to simulate the karst spring. The model indicates whether the spring discharge is influenced by the turbulent pipe; this not only depends on the parameters of the nonlinear reservoir and turbulent pipe, but also depends on the volume of spring discharge itself. Even though the spring discharge is strongly influenced by the turbulent pipe during the storm, this influence decreases with the rainfall intensity and volume of spring discharge. In addition, an `evapotranspiration store' is used to consider the moisture loss through evapotranspiration and to calculate the effective rainfall on the proposed model. Then, this simple conceptual model is used to simulate a karst spring (named S31) near Guilin city, China, with satisfactory results, especially with respect to discharge peaks and recession curves of the spring under storm conditions. The proposed model is also compared with the Vensim model of similar complexity, which has been applied to the same spring catchment. The comparison shows the superiority and better performance of the nonlinear reservoir-pipe model.

  8. Uncertainty and the Conceptual Site Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, V.; Nicholson, T. J.

    2007-12-01

    Our focus is on uncertainties in the underlying conceptual framework upon which all subsequent steps in numerical and/or analytical modeling efforts depend. Experienced environmental modelers recognize the value of selecting an optimal conceptual model from several competing site models, but usually do not formally explore possible alternative models, in part due to incomplete or missing site data, as well as relevant regional data for establishing boundary conditions. The value in and approach for developing alternative conceptual site models (CSM) is demonstrated by analysis of case histories. These studies are based on reported flow or transport modeling in which alternative site models are formulated using data that were not available to, or not used by, the original modelers. An important concept inherent to model abstraction of these alternative conceptual models is that it is "Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than the exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." (Tukey, 1962) The case histories discussed here illustrate the value of formulating alternative models and evaluating them using site-specific data: (1) Charleston Naval Site where seismic characterization data allowed significant revision of the CSM and subsequent contaminant transport modeling; (2) Hanford 300-Area where surface- and ground-water interactions affecting the unsaturated zone suggested an alternative component to the site model; (3) Savannah River C-Area where a characterization report for a waste site within the modeled area was not available to the modelers, but provided significant new information requiring changes to the underlying geologic and hydrogeologic CSM's used; (4) Amargosa Desert Research Site (ADRS) where re-interpretation of resistivity sounding data and water-level data suggested an alternative geologic model. Simple 2-D spreadsheet modeling of the ADRS with the revised CSM provided an improved

  9. Modeling of surface microtopography and its impacts on hydrologic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habtezion, Noah Lebassi

    Understanding the impacts of surface microtopography on hydrologic processes is critical. The objectives of this thesis research are: (1) to evaluate the effects of DEM resolution on microtopographic characteristics, hydrologic connectivity, and modeling of hydrologic processes; and (2) to assess the influences of multiple rainfall events on surface and subsurface hydrologic processes with the use of a puddle-to-puddle (P2P) modeling system. The change in DEM resolution has a significant effect on how surface microtopography is depicted, which in turn alters the hydrologic response of a topographic surface. The smoothing of reduced DEM resolution tends to enhance hydrologic connectivity, reduce the depression storage and infiltration, and increase surface runoff. Temporal rainfall distribution results in spatio-temporal variations in soil water dynamics, depression storage, infiltration, hydrologic connectivity, and surface runoff. The reduction in ponding time and infiltration, and the enhancement of hydrologic connectivity further caused earlier and greater surface runoff generation.

  10. An operational GLS model for hydrologic regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tasker, Gary D.; Stedinger, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    Recent Monte Carlo studies have documented the value of generalized least squares (GLS) procedures to estimate empirical relationships between streamflow statistics and physiographic basin characteristics. This paper presents a number of extensions of the GLS method that deal with realities and complexities of regional hydrologic data sets that were not addressed in the simulation studies. These extensions include: (1) a more realistic model of the underlying model errors; (2) smoothed estimates of cross correlation of flows; (3) procedures for including historical flow data; (4) diagnostic statistics describing leverage and influence for GLS regression; and (5) the formulation of a mathematical program for evaluating future gaging activities. ?? 1989.

  11. A Smallholder Socio-hydrological Modelling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pande, S.; Savenije, H.; Rathore, P.

    2014-12-01

    Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. They often have low productivity and thus remain at subsistence level. A fact that nearly 80% of Indian farmers are smallholders, who merely own a third of total farmlands and belong to the poorest quartile, but produce nearly 40% of countries foodgrains underlines the importance of understanding the socio-hydrology of a small holder. We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. It allows us to study sustainability of small holder farming systems under various settings. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of small holders in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydroclimatic variability. This presentation discusses two aspects in particular: whether government interventions to absolve the debt of farmers is enough and what is the value of investing in local storages that can buffer intra-annual variability in rainfall and strengthening the safety-nets either by creating opportunities for alternative sources of income or by crop diversification.

  12. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  13. Hybrid Modelling Approach to Prairie hydrology: Fusing Data-driven and Process-based Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, B.; Nazemi, A.; Elshorbagy, A.; Mazurek, K.; Putz, G.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling the hydrological response in prairie regions, characterized by flat and undulating terrain, and thus, large non-contributing areas, is a known challenge. The hydrological response (runoff) is the combination of the traditional runoff from the hydrologically contributing area and the occasional overflow from the non-contributing area. This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of fusing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in a hybrid structure to model the hydrological response in prairie regions. A hybrid SWAT-ANN model is proposed, where the SWAT component and the ANN module deal with the effective (contributing) area and the non-contributing area, respectively. The hybrid model is applied to the case study of Moose Jaw watershed, located in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. As an initial exploration, a comparison between ANN and SWAT models is established based on addressing the daily runoff (streamflow) prediction accuracy using multiple error measures. This is done to identify the merits and drawbacks of each modeling approach. It has been found out that the SWAT model has better performance during the low flow periods but with degraded efficiency during periods of high flows. The case is different for the ANN model as ANNs exhibit improved simulation during high flow periods but with biased estimates during low flow periods. The modelling results show that the new hybrid SWAT-ANN model is capable of exploiting the strengths of both SWAT and ANN models in an integrated framrwork. The new hybrid SWAT-ANN model simulates daily runoff quite satisfactorily with NSE measures of 0.80 and 0.83 during calibration and validation periods, respectively. Furthermore, an experimental assessment was performed to identify the effects of the ANN training method on the performance of the hybrid model as well as the parametric identifiability. Overall, the results obtained in this study suggest that the fusion

  14. A multicomponent coupled model of glacier hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flowers, Gwenn Elizabeth

    Multiple lines of evidence suggest a causal link between subglacial hydrology and phenomena such as fast-flowing ice. This evidence includes a measured correlation between water under alpine glaciers and their motion, the presence of saturated sediment beneath Antaxctic ice streams, and geologic signatures of enhanced paleo-ice flow over deformable substrates. The complexity of the glacier bed as a three-component mixture presents an obstacle to unraveling these conundra. Inadequate representations of hydrology, in part, prevent us from closing the gap between empirical descriptions and a comprehensive consistent framework for understanding the dynamics of glacierized systems. I have developed a distributed numerical model that solves equations governing glacier surface runoff, englacial water transport, subglacial drainage, and subsurface groundwater flow. Ablation and precipitation drive the surface model through a temperature-index parameterization. Water is permitted to flow over and off the glacier, or to the bed through a system of crevasses, pipes, and fractures. A macroporous sediment horizon transports subglacial water to the ice margin or to an underlying aquifer. Governing equations are derived from the law of mass conservation and are expressed as a balance between the internal redistribution of water and external sources. Each of the four model components is represented as a two-dimensional, vertically-integrated layer that communicates with its neighbors through water exchange. Stacked together, these layers approximate a three-dimensional system. I tailor the model to Trapridge Glacier, where digital maps of the surface and bed have been derived from ice-penetrating radar data. Observations of subglacial water pressure provide additional constraints on model parameters and a basis for comparison of simulations with real data. Three classical idealizations of glacier geometry are used for simple model experiments. Equilibrium tests emphasize geometric

  15. Hydrological improvements for nutrient and pollutant emission modeling in large scale catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Höllering, S.; Ihringer, J.

    2012-04-01

    An estimation of emissions and loads of nutrients and pollutants into European water bodies with as much accuracy as possible depends largely on the knowledge about the spatially and temporally distributed hydrological runoff patterns. An improved hydrological water balance model for the pollutant emission model MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) (IWG, 2011) has been introduced, that can form an adequate basis to simulate discharge in a hydrologically differentiated, land-use based way to subsequently provide the required distributed discharge components. First of all the hydrological model had to comply both with requirements of space and time in order to calculate sufficiently precise the water balance on the catchment scale spatially distributed in sub-catchments and with a higher temporal resolution. Aiming to reproduce seasonal dynamics and the characteristic hydrological regimes of river catchments a daily (instead of a yearly) time increment was applied allowing for a more process oriented simulation of discharge dynamics, volume and therefore water balance. The enhancement of the hydrological model became also necessary to potentially account for the hydrological functioning of catchments in regard to scenarios of e.g. a changing climate or alterations of land use. As a deterministic, partly physically based, conceptual hydrological watershed and water balance model the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (USGS, 2009) was selected to improve the hydrological input for MoRE. In PRMS the spatial discretization is implemented with sub-catchments and so called hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are the hydrotropic, distributed, finite modeling entities each having a homogeneous runoff reaction due to hydro-meteorological events. Spatial structures and heterogeneities in sub-catchments e.g. urbanity, land use and soil types were identified to derive hydrological similarities and classify in different urban and rural HRUs. In this way the

  16. A simple hydrologic model for rapid prediction of runoff from ungauged coastal catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan, Yongshan; Konyha, Kenneth

    2015-09-01

    We developed a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model for rapid prediction of runoff generated in the unique hydrological setting with flat terrain, sandy soils, high groundwater table, and a dense drainage canal network in south Florida. The model is conceptualized as rainfall and evapotranspiration filling and emptying the root zone and excess rainfall recharging three storage zones. Outflows from these storage zones, routed with parallel arrangement of three linear reservoirs, represent different flow components of catchment runoff, i.e., slow drainage (shallow subsurface flow), medium drainage (interflow and saturation excess overland flow), and fast drainage (direct runoff from impervious urban areas or from water table management in agricultural land). The model is parsimonious with eight model parameters along with two optional water management parameters. A regionalization study was conducted through model parameterization to achieve target hydrological behavior of typical land uses, which are the most significant basin descriptor affecting catchment hydrology in south Florida. Cross validation with 16 gauged basins dominated by urban, agricultural, and natural lands, respectively, indicated that the model provides an effective tool for rapid prediction of runoff in ungauged basins using the regionalized model parameters. A case study is presented, involving application of the model to support real-time adaptive management to hydrological operations for protection of estuarine ecosystems.

  17. Hydrogeologic framework, hydrology, and refined conceptual model of groundwater flow for Coastal Plain aquifers at the Standard Chlorine of Delaware, Inc. Superfund Site, New Castle County, Delaware, 2005-12

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brayton, Michael J.; Cruz, Roberto M.; Myers, Luke; Degnan, James R.; Raffensperger, Jeff P.

    2015-01-01

    The regional hydrogeologic framework indicates that the site is underlain by Coastal Plain sediments of the Columbia, Merchantville, and Potomac Formations. Two primary aquifers underlying the site, the Columbia and the upper Potomac, are separated by the Merchantville Formation confining unit. Local groundwater flow in the surficial (Columbia) aquifer is controlled by topography and generally flows northward and discharges to nearby surface water. Regional flow within the Potomac aquifer is towards the southeast, and is strongly influenced by major water withdrawals locally. Previous investigations at the site indicated that contaminants, primarily benzene and chlorinated benzene compounds, were present in the Columbia aquifer in most locations; however, there were only limited detections in the upper Potomac aquifer as of 2004. From 2005 through 2012, the USGS designed a monitoring network, assisted with exploratory drilling, collected data at monitoring wells, conducted geophysical surveys, evaluated water-level responses in wells during pumping of a production well, and evaluated major aquifer withdrawals. Data collected through these efforts were used to refine the local conceptual flow system. The refined conceptual flow system for the site includes: (a) identification of gaps in confining units in the study area, (b) identification and correlation of multiple water-bearing sand intervals within the upper Potomac Formation, (c) connections between groundwater and surface water, (d) connections between shallow and deeper groundwater, (e) new water-level (or potentiometric surface) maps and inferred flow directions, and (f) identification of major local pumping well influences. The implications of the revised conceptual flow system on the occurrence and movement of site contaminants are that the resulting detection of contaminants in the upper Potomac aquifer at specific well locations can be attributed primarily to either advective lateral transport, direct

  18. Applicability of Hydrologic Landscapes for Model Calibration at the Watershed Scale in the Pacific Northwest

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) at the assessment unit scale has provided a solid conceptual classification framework to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A collection of tec...

  19. A Conceptual Model For Effluent-Dependent Riverine Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, M. T.; Meyerhoff, R. D.; Osterkamp, W. R.; Smith, E. L.; Hawkins, R. H.

    2001-12-01

    The Arid West Water Quality Research Project (WQRP) is a multi-year, EPA-funded scientific endeavor directed by the Pima County, Wastewater Management Department in southern Arizona and focussed upon several interconnected ecological questions. These questions are crucial to water quality management in the arid and semi arid western US. A key component has been the ecological, hydrological and geomorphological investigation of habitat created by the discharge of treated effluent into ephemeral streams. Such environments are fundamentally different from the dry streams or rivers they displace; however, they are clearly not the perennial streams they superficially resemble. Under Arizona State regulations, such streams can bear the use designation of "Effluent Dependent Waters," or EDWs. Before this investigation, a hydrological/ecological conceptual model for these unique ecosystems had not been published. We have constructed one for general review that is designed to direct future work in the WQRP. The project investigated ten representative, yet contrasting EDW sites distributed throughout arid areas of the western US, to gather both historical and reconnaissance level field data, including in-stream and riparian, habitat and morphometric fluvial data. In most cases, the cross sectional area of the prior channel is oversized relative to the discharge of the introduced effluent. Where bed control is absent, the channels are incised downstream of the discharge point, further suggesting a disequilibrium between the channel and the regulated effluent flow. Several of the studied stream systems primarily convey storm water and are aggradational, exhibiting braided or anastomizing channels, high energy bedforms, and spatially dynamic interfluves. Active channels are formed in response to individual storm events and can be highly dynamic in both location and cross-sectional morphology. This poses a geomorphological challenge in the selection of a discharge point. We

  20. Updated Conceptual Model for the 300 Area Uranium Groundwater Plume

    SciTech Connect

    Zachara, John M.; Freshley, Mark D.; Last, George V.; Peterson, Robert E.; Bjornstad, Bruce N.

    2012-11-01

    The 300 Area uranium groundwater plume in the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit is residual from past discharge of nuclear fuel fabrication wastes to a number of liquid (and solid) disposal sites. The source zones in the disposal sites were remediated by excavation and backfilled to grade, but sorbed uranium remains in deeper, unexcavated vadose zone sediments. In spite of source term removal, the groundwater plume has shown remarkable persistence, with concentrations exceeding the drinking water standard over an area of approximately 1 km2. The plume resides within a coupled vadose zone, groundwater, river zone system of immense complexity and scale. Interactions between geologic structure, the hydrologic system driven by the Columbia River, groundwater-river exchange points, and the geochemistry of uranium contribute to persistence of the plume. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) to document characterization of the 300 Area uranium plume and plan for beginning to implement proposed remedial actions. As part of the RI/FS document, a conceptual model was developed that integrates knowledge of the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties of the 300 Area and controlling processes to yield an understanding of how the system behaves and the variables that control it. Recent results from the Hanford Integrated Field Research Challenge site and the Subsurface Biogeochemistry Scientific Focus Area Project funded by the DOE Office of Science were used to update the conceptual model and provide an assessment of key factors controlling plume persistence.

  1. Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

    1993-01-01

    The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

  2. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  3. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes for Hydrologic Model Calibration and Selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawicz, K. A.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Comeleo, R. L.; Jones, C., Jr.; Wigington, P. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaningful information between different watersheds without access to streamflow time series. A revised HL classification scheme was developed for over 10,000 assessment units (the fundamental unit of area for an HL) within the Pacific Northwest (PNW; Oregon, Washington, and Idaho). Aggregation and validation of the PNW HL assessment units to the watershed-scale was then completed for the PNW through use of clustering approaches and the hydrologic response as defined by hydroclimatic signatures. A result generated from this study was that the HL assessment units with greater moisture surplus or deficit formed a stronger connection between watershed-scale PNW HL and hydrologic response. The next step was to investigate the usefulness of the information contained within the PNW with regard to hydrologic modeling calibration and model structure selection. The hypothesis that we set forward for this study is that hydrologic response, as inferred and derived from the HL assessment units, is helpful for the structural identification and calibration of hydrologic models. A selection of streamgage stations and their associated watershed area across the PNW were modeled with lumped and semi-distributed modeling structures. The resulting model calibration and parameter space exploration leads to the identification of assessment unit types that are more hydrologically influential to the overall hydrologic functions of the watershed.

  4. Computer model of in situ leaching hydrology

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-05-01

    A computer program developed by the US Bureau of Mines simulates the hydrologic activity associated with in situ mining. Its purpose is to determine the site specific flow behavior of leachants and groundwater during development, production, and resotration phases of an in situ leaching operations. Model capabilities include arbitrary well patterns and pumping schedules, partially penetrating well screens, directionally anisotropic permeability and natural groundwater flow, in either leaky or nonleaky, confined aquifers and under steady state or time dependent flow conditions. In addition to extensive laboratory testing, the Twin Cites Research Center has closely monitored the application of this model at three different mine sites, and at each site, the solution breakthrough time and the hydraulic head at observation wells were used to tune the model. The model was then used satisfactorily to assess suitability of various well configurations and pumping schedules, in terms of fluid dispersion within the ore pod and fluid excursions into the surrounding aquifer. (JMT)

  5. When are multiobjective calibration trade-offs in hydrologic models meaningful?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kollat, J. B.; Reed, P. M.; Wagener, T.

    2012-03-01

    This paper applies a four-objective calibration strategy focusing on peak flows, low flows, water balance, and flashiness to 392 model parameter estimation experiment (MOPEX) watersheds across the United States. Our analysis explores the influence of model structure by analyzing how the multiobjective calibration trade-offs for two conceptual hydrologic models, the Hydrology Model (HYMOD) and the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model, compare for each of the 392 catchments. Our results demonstrate that for modern multiobjective calibration frameworks to identify any meaningful measure of model structural failure, users must be able to carefully control the precision by which they evaluate their trade-offs. Our study demonstrates that the concept of epsilon-dominance provides an effective means of attaining bounded and meaningful hydrologic model calibration trade-offs. When analyzed at an appropriate precision, we found that meaningful multiobjective trade-offs are far less frequent than prior literature has suggested. However, when trade-offs do exist at a meaningful precision, they have significant value for supporting hydrologic model selection, distinguishing core model deficiencies, and identifying hydroclimatic regions where hydrologic model prediction is highly challenging.

  6. Critical conceptualism in environmental modeling and prediction.

    PubMed

    Christakos, G

    2003-10-15

    Many important problems in environmental science and engineering are of a conceptual nature. Research and development, however, often becomes so preoccupied with technical issues, which are themselves fascinating, that it neglects essential methodological elements of conceptual reasoning and theoretical inquiry. This work suggests that valuable insight into environmental modeling can be gained by means of critical conceptualism which focuses on the software of human reason and, in practical terms, leads to a powerful methodological framework of space-time modeling and prediction. A knowledge synthesis system develops the rational means for the epistemic integration of various physical knowledge bases relevant to the natural system of interest in order to obtain a realistic representation of the system, provide a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty sources, generate meaningful predictions of environmental processes in space-time, and produce science-based decisions. No restriction is imposed on the shape of the distribution model or the form of the predictor (non-Gaussian distributions, multiple-point statistics, and nonlinear models are automatically incorporated). The scientific reasoning structure underlying knowledge synthesis involves teleologic criteria and stochastic logic principles which have important advantages over the reasoning method of conventional space-time techniques. Insight is gained in terms of real world applications, including the following: the study of global ozone patterns in the atmosphere using data sets generated by instruments on board the Nimbus 7 satellite and secondary information in terms of total ozone-tropopause pressure models; the mapping of arsenic concentrations in the Bangladesh drinking water by assimilating hard and soft data from an extensive network of monitoring wells; and the dynamic imaging of probability distributions of pollutants across the Kalamazoo river.

  7. Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, James E.

    2001-01-01

    A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5

  8. Hydrologic connectivity: Quantitative assessments of hydrologic-enforced drainage structures in an elevation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poppenga, Sandra; Worstell, Bruce B.

    2016-01-01

    Elevation data derived from light detection and ranging present challenges for hydrologic modeling as the elevation surface includes bridge decks and elevated road features overlaying culvert drainage structures. In reality, water is carried through these structures; however, in the elevation surface these features impede modeled overland surface flow. Thus, a hydrologically-enforced elevation surface is needed for hydrodynamic modeling. In the Delaware River Basin, hydrologic-enforcement techniques were used to modify elevations to simulate how constructed drainage structures allow overland surface flow. By calculating residuals between unfilled and filled elevation surfaces, artificially pooled depressions that formed upstream of constructed drainage structure features were defined, and elevation values were adjusted by generating transects at the location of the drainage structures. An assessment of each hydrologically-enforced drainage structure was conducted using field-surveyed culvert and bridge coordinates obtained from numerous public agencies, but it was discovered the disparate drainage structure datasets were not comprehensive enough to assess all remotely located depressions in need of hydrologic-enforcement. Alternatively, orthoimagery was interpreted to define drainage structures near each depression, and these locations were used as reference points for a quantitative hydrologic-enforcement assessment. The orthoimagery-interpreted reference points resulted in a larger corresponding sample size than the assessment between hydrologic-enforced transects and field-surveyed data. This assessment demonstrates the viability of rules-based hydrologic-enforcement that is needed to achieve hydrologic connectivity, which is valuable for hydrodynamic models in sensitive coastal regions. Hydrologic-enforced elevation data are also essential for merging with topographic/bathymetric elevation data that extend over vulnerable urbanized areas and dynamic coastal

  9. Moving university hydrology education forward with community-based geoinformatics, data and modeling resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.

    2012-08-01

    In this opinion paper, we review recent literature related to data and modeling driven instruction in hydrology, and present our findings from surveying the hydrology education community in the United States. This paper presents an argument that that data and modeling driven geoscience cybereducation (DMDGC) approaches are essential for teaching the conceptual and applied aspects of hydrology, as a part of the broader effort to improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education at the university level. The authors have undertaken a series of surveys and a workshop involving university hydrology educators to determine the state of the practice of DMDGC approaches to hydrology. We identify the most common tools and approaches currently utilized, quantify the extent of the adoption of DMDGC approaches in the university hydrology classroom, and explain the community's views on the challenges and barriers preventing DMDGC approaches from wider use. DMDGC approaches are currently emphasized at the graduate level of the curriculum, and only the most basic modeling and visualization tools are in widespread use. The community identifies the greatest barriers to greater adoption as a lack of access to easily adoptable curriculum materials and a lack of time and training to learn constantly changing tools and methods. The community's current consensus is that DMDGC approaches should emphasize conceptual learning, and should be used to complement rather than replace lecture-based pedagogies. Inadequate online material publication and sharing systems, and a lack of incentives for faculty to develop and publish materials via such systems, is also identified as a challenge. Based on these findings, we suggest that a number of steps should be taken by the community to develop the potential of DMDGC in university hydrology education, including formal development and assessment of curriculum materials, integrating lecture-format and DMDGC approaches

  10. Moving university hydrology education forward with geoinformatics, data and modeling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merwade, V.; Ruddell, B. L.

    2012-02-01

    In this opinion paper, we review recent literature related to data and modeling driven instruction in hydrology, and present our findings from surveying the hydrology education community in the United States. This paper presents an argument that that Data and Modeling Driven Geoscience Cybereducation (DMDGC) approaches are valuable for teaching the conceptual and applied aspects of hydrology, as a part of the broader effort to improve Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education at the university level. The authors have undertaken a series of surveys and a workshop involving the community of university hydrology educators to determine the state of the practice of DMDGC approaches to hydrology. We identify the most common tools and approaches currently utilized, quantify the extent of the adoption of DMDGC approaches in the university hydrology classroom, and explain the community's views on the challenges and barriers preventing DMDGC approaches from wider use. DMDGC approaches are currently emphasized at the graduate level of the curriculum, and only the most basic modeling and visualization tools are in widespread use. The community identifies the greatest barriers to greater adoption as a lack of access to easily adoptable curriculum materials and a lack of time and training to learn constantly changing tools and methods. The community's current consensus is that DMDGC approaches should emphasize conceptual learning, and should be used to complement rather than replace lecture-based pedagogies. Inadequate online material-publication and sharing systems, and a lack of incentives for faculty to develop and publish materials via such systems, is also identified as a challenge. Based on these findings, we suggest that a number of steps should be taken by the community to develop the potential of DMDGC in university hydrology education, including formal development and assessment of curriculum materials integrating lecture-format and DMDGC

  11. Pursuing realistic hydrologic model under SUPERFLEX framework in a semi-humid catchment in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Lingna; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Gao, Hongkai; Chen, Xi

    2016-04-01

    Model realism is pursued perpetually by hydrologists for flood and drought prediction, integrated water resources management and decision support of water security. "Physical-based" distributed hydrologic models are speedily developed but they also encounter unneglectable challenges, for instance, computational time with low efficiency and parameters uncertainty. This study step-wisely tested four conceptual hydrologic models under the framework of SUPERFLEX in a small semi-humid catchment in southern Huai River basin of China. The original lumped FLEXL has hypothesized model structure of four reservoirs to represent canopy interception, unsaturated zone, subsurface flow of fast and slow components and base flow storage. Considering the uneven rainfall in space, the second model (FLEXD) is developed with same parameter set for different rain gauge controlling units. To reveal the effect of topography, terrain descriptor of height above the nearest drainage (HAND) combined with slope is applied to classify the experimental catchment into two landscapes. Then the third one (FLEXTOPO) builds different model blocks in consideration of the dominant hydrologic process corresponding to the topographical condition. The fourth one named FLEXTOPOD integrating the parallel framework of FLEXTOPO in four controlled units is designed to interpret spatial variability of rainfall patterns and topographic features. Through pairwise comparison, our results suggest that: (1) semi-distributed models (FLEXD and FLEXTOPOD) taking precipitation spatial heterogeneity into account has improved model performance with parsimonious parameter set, and (2) hydrologic model architecture with flexibility to reflect perceived dominant hydrologic processes can include the local terrain circumstances for each landscape. Hence, the modeling actions are coincided with the catchment behaviour and close to the "reality". The presented methodology is regarding hydrologic model as a tool to test our

  12. Achievements and Problems of Conceptual Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thalheim, Bernhard

    Database and information systems technology has substantially changed. Nowadays, content management systems, (information-intensive) web services, collaborating systems, internet databases, OLAP databases etc. have become buzzwords. At the same time, object-relational technology has gained the maturity for being widely applied. Conceptual modelling has not (yet) covered all these novel topics. It has been concentrated for more than two decades around specification of structures. Meanwhile, functionality, interactivity and distribution must be included into conceptual modelling of information systems. Also, some of the open problems that have been already discussed in 1987 [15, 16] still remain to be open. At the same time, novel models such as object-relational models or XML-based models have been developed. They did not overcome all the problems but have been sharpening and extending the variety of open problems. The open problem presented are given for classical areas of database research, i.e., structuring and functionality. The entire are of distribution and interaction is currently an area of very intensive research.

  13. A Structural Equation Model of Conceptual Change in Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Sinatra, Gale M.

    2011-01-01

    A model of conceptual change in physics was tested on introductory-level, college physics students. Structural equation modeling was used to test hypothesized relationships among variables linked to conceptual change in physics including an approach goal orientation, need for cognition, motivation, and course grade. Conceptual change in physics…

  14. Conceptual Frameworks in the Doctoral Research Process: A Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berman, Jeanette; Smyth, Robyn

    2015-01-01

    This paper contributes to consideration of the role of conceptual frameworks in the doctoral research process. Through reflection on the two authors' own conceptual frameworks for their doctoral studies, a pedagogical model has been developed. The model posits the development of a conceptual framework as a core element of the doctoral…

  15. Evaluating snow models for hydrological applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonas, T.; Magnusson, J.; Wever, N.; Essery, R.; Helbig, N.

    2014-12-01

    Much effort has been invested in developing snow models over several decades, resulting in a wide variety of empirical and physically-based snow models. Within the two categories, models are built on the same principles but mainly differ in choices of model simplifications and parameterizations describing individual processes. In this study, we demonstrate an informative method for evaluating a large range of snow model structures for hydrological applications using an existing multi-model energy-balance framework and data from two well-instrumented sites with a seasonal snow cover. We also include two temperature-index snow models and one physically-based multi-layer snow model in our analyses. Our results show that the ability of models to predict snowpack runoff is strongly related to the agreement of observed and modelled snow water equivalent whereas such relationship is not present for snow depth or snow surface temperature measurements. For snow water equivalent and runoff, the models seem transferable between our two study sites, a behaviour which is not observed for snow surface temperature predictions due to site-specificity of turbulent heat transfer formulations. Uncertainties in the input and validation data, rather than model formulation, appear to contribute most to low model performances in some winters. More importantly, we find that model complexity is not a determinant for predicting daily snow water equivalent and runoff reliably, but choosing an appropriate model structure is. Our study shows the usefulness of the multi-model framework for identifying appropriate models under given constraints such as data availability, properties of interest and computational cost.

  16. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Trolle, Dennis; Børgesen, Christen Duus; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jeppesen, Erik; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice remained the dominant factor for mean discharge, low and high flows as well as hydraulic head at the end of the century.

  17. Can citizen-based observations be assimilated in hydrological models to improve flood prediction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri P.

    2015-04-01

    In the recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used to measure hydrological variables by citizens in a more spatially distributed way than classic static physical sensors. However, such measurements have the main characteristics to have irregular arrival time and variable uncertainty. This study presents a Kalman filter based method to integrate citizen-based observations into hydrological models in order to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a lumped conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations coming at irregular time steps are not available. The results of this study pointed out how increasing the number of uncertain citizen-based observations within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Therefore, observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (http://wesenseit.eu/).

  18. A Conceptual Model of Referee Efficacy

    PubMed Central

    Guillén, Félix; Feltz, Deborah L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual model of referee efficacy, defines the concept, proposes sources of referee specific efficacy information, and suggests consequences of having high or low referee efficacy. Referee efficacy is defined as the extent to which referees believe they have the capacity to perform successfully in their job. Referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to be influenced by mastery experiences, referee knowledge/education, support from significant others, physical/mental preparedness, environmental comfort, and perceived anxiety. In turn, referee efficacy beliefs are hypothesized to influence referee performance, referee stress, athlete rule violations, athlete satisfaction, and co-referee satisfaction. PMID:21713174

  19. Propulsion System Models for Rotorcraft Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Wayne

    2014-01-01

    The conceptual design code NDARC (NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft) was initially implemented to model conventional rotorcraft propulsion systems, consisting of turboshaft engines burning jet fuel, connected to one or more rotors through a mechanical transmission. The NDARC propulsion system representation has been extended to cover additional propulsion concepts, including electric motors and generators, rotor reaction drive, turbojet and turbofan engines, fuel cells and solar cells, batteries, and fuel (energy) used without weight change. The paper describes these propulsion system components, the architecture of their implementation in NDARC, and the form of the models for performance and weight. Requirements are defined for improved performance and weight models of the new propulsion system components. With these new propulsion models, NDARC can be used to develop environmentally-friendly rotorcraft designs.

  20. An Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator: fusion of Input, Parameter and Model Structural Uncertainty Estimation in Hydrologic Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajami, N. K.; Duan, Q.; Sorooshian, S.

    2005-12-01

    To-date single conceptual hydrologic models often applied to interpret physical processes within a watershed. Nevertheless hydrologic models regardless of their sophistication and complexity are simplified representation of the complex, spatially distributed and highly nonlinear real world system. Consequently their hydrologic predictions contain considerable uncertainty from different sources including: hydrometeorological forcing inputs, boundary/initial conditions, model structure, model parameters which need to be accounted for. Thus far the effort has gone to address these sources of uncertainty explicitly, making an implicit assumption that uncertainties from different sources are additive. Nevertheless because of the nonlinear nature of the hydrologic systems, it is not feasible to account for these uncertainties independently. Here we present the Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) which accounts for total uncertainties from all major sources: inputs forcing, model structure, model parameters. This algorithm explores multi-model framework to tackle model structural uncertainty while using the Bayesian rules to estimate parameter and input uncertainty within individual models. Three hydrologic models including SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model, Hydrologic model (HYMOD) and Simple Water Balance (SWB) model were considered within IBUNE framework for this study. The results which are presented for the Leaf River Basin, MS, indicates that IBUNE gives a better quantification of uncertainty through hydrological modeling processes, therefore provide more reliable and less bias prediction with realistic uncertainty boundaries.

  1. Improvements of Physically-Based Hydrological Modelling using the ACRU Agro-Hydrological Modelling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonifacio, C. M. T.; Kienzle, S. W.; Xu, W.; Zhang, J.

    2014-12-01

    The uncertainty of future water availability due to climate change in the Upper Oldman River Basin in Alberta, Canada, and downstream users is considered in this study. A changing climate can significantly perturb hydrological response within a region, thereby affecting the available water resources within southern Alberta. The ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system is applied to simulate historical (1950-2010) and future (2041-2070) streamflows and volumes of a major irrigation reservoir. Like many highly complex, process-based distributed models, major limitations include the data availability and data quality at finer spatial resolutions. With the use of a scripting language, certain limitations can be greatly reduced. Three phases of the project will be emphasized. First, the assimilation of solar radiation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed daily data into the Canadian 10KM daily climate data that contains daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1950-2010, so as to enable potential evapotranspiration calculations using the Penman-Monteith equation. Second, the downscaling of five regional climate model (RCM) data to match the 10KM spatial resolution was undertaken. Third, a total of 1722 hydrological response units (HRUs) were delineated within the 4403 km2 large upper Oldman River Basin. In all phases of model input data parameterization and calibration, the automation of known external procedures greatly decreased erroneous model inputs and increased the efficiency of validating the quality of input data to be used within the ACRU model.

  2. A conceptual framework for assessing cumulative impacts on the hydrology of nontidal wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winter, T.C.

    1988-01-01

    Wetlands occur in geologic and hydrologic settings that enhance the accumulation or retention of water. Regional slope, local relief, and permeability of the land surface are major controls on the formation of wetlands by surface-water sources. However, these landscape features also have significant control over groundwater flow systems, which commonly play a role in the formation of wetlands. Because the hydrologic system is a continuum, any modification of one component will have an effect on contiguous components. Disturbances commonly affecting the hydrologic system as it relates to wetlands include weather modification, alteration of plant communities, storage of surface water, road construction, drainage of surface water and soil water, alteration of groundwater recharge and discharge areas, and pumping of groundwater. Assessments of the cumulative effects of one or more of these disturbances on the hydrologic system as related to wetlands must take into account uncertainty in the measurements and in the assumptions that are made in hydrologic studies. For example, it may be appropriate to assume that regional groundwater flow systems are recharged in uplands and discharged in lowlands. However, a similar assumption commonly does not apply on a local scale, because of the spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater recharge. Lack of appreciation of such hydrologic factors can lead to misunderstanding of the hydrologic function of wetlands within various parts of the landscape and mismanagement of wetland ecosystems. ?? 1988 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  3. CONCEPTUAL MODELS FOR THE LASSEN HYDROTHERMAL SYSTEM.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, S.E.; Sorey, M.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Lassen hydrothermal system, like a number of other systems in regions of moderate to great topographic relief, includes steam-heated features at higher elevations and high-chloride springs at lower elevations, connected to and fed by a single circulation system at depth. Two conceptual models for such systems are presented. They are similar in several ways: however, there are basic differences in terms of the nature and extent of vapor-dominated conditions beneath the steam-heated features. For some Lassen-like systems, these differences could have environmental and economic implications. Available data do not make it possible to establish a single preferred model for the Lassen system, and the actual system is complex enough that both models may apply to different parts of the system.

  4. Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Modeling flood risk as a public policy problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gober, Patricia; Wheater, Howard S.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology views human activities as endogenous to water system dynamics; it is the interaction between human and biophysical processes that threatens the viability of current water systems through positive feedbacks and unintended consequences. Di Baldassarre et al. implement socio-hydrology as a flood risk problem using the concept of social memory as a vehicle to link human perceptions to flood damage. Their mathematical model has heuristic value in comparing potential flood damages in green versus technological societies. It can also support communities in exploring the potential consequences of policy decisions and evaluating critical policy tradeoffs, for example, between flood protection and economic development. The concept of social memory does not, however, adequately capture the social processes whereby public perceptions are translated into policy action, including the pivotal role played by the media in intensifying or attenuating perceived flood risk, the success of policy entrepreneurs in keeping flood hazard on the public agenda during short windows of opportunity for policy action, and different societal approaches to managing flood risk that derive from cultural values and economic interests. We endorse the value of seeking to capture these dynamics in a simplified conceptual framework, but favor a broader conceptualization of socio-hydrology that includes a knowledge exchange component, including the way modeling insights and scientific results are communicated to floodplain managers. The social processes used to disseminate the products of socio-hydrological research are as important as the research results themselves in determining whether modeling is used for real-world decision making.

  5. Hydrology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  6. Flexibility on storage-release based distributed hydrologic modeling with object-oriented approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Kwangmin; Merwade, Venkatesh; Chun, Jong Ahn; Timlin, Dennis

    2016-09-01

    With the availability of advanced hydrologic data in public domain such as remote sensed and climate change scenario data, there is a need for a modeling framework that is capable of using these data to simulate and extend hydrologic processes with multidisciplinary approaches for sustainable water resources management. To address this need, a storage-release based distributed hydrologic model (STORE DHM) is developed based on an object-oriented approach. The model is tested for demonstrating model flexibility and extensibility to know how to well integrate object-oriented approach to further hydrologic research issues, e.g., reconstructing missing precipitation in this study, without changing its main frame. Moreover, the STORE DHM is applied to simulate hydrological processes with multiple classes in the Nanticoke watershed. This study also describes a conceptual and structural framework of object-oriented inheritance and aggregation characteristics under the STORE DHM. In addition, NearestMP (missing value estimation based on nearest neighborhood regression) and KernelMP (missing value estimation based on Kernel Function) are proposed for evaluating STORE DHM flexibility. And then, STORE DHM runoff hydrographs compared with NearestMP and KernelMP runoff hydrographs. Overall results from these comparisons show promising hydrograph outputs generated by the proposed two classes. Consequently, this study suggests that STORE DHM with an object-oriented approach will be a comprehensive water resources modeling tools by adding additional classes for toward developing through its flexibility and extensibility.

  7. Hydrological Modelling of Small Catchments Using Swat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kannan, N.; White, S. M.; Worrall, F.; Groves, S.

    The data from a 142ha catchment in Eastern England(Colworth, Bedfordshire)are be- ing used to investigate the performance of the USDA SWAT software for modelling hydrology of small catchments. Stream flow at the catchment outlet has been mon- itored since October 1999. About 50% of the total catchment is directly controlled within one farm and a rotation of wheat, oil seed rape, grass, linseed, beans and peas is grown. Three years of stream flow and climate data are available. Calibration and validation of stream flow was carried out with both runoff modelling options in the SWAT model (USDA curve number method and the Green and Ampt method). The Nash and Sutcliffe efficiencies for the calibration period were 66% and 63% respec- tively. The performance of SWAT was better in the validation period as a whole, with regard to timing of peaks, baseflow values and Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency. An ef- ficiency of 70% was obtained using the curve number method, which is comparable with the efficiencies obtainable with more complex models. Despite this performance, SWAT is under predicting stream flow peaks. A detailed investigation of important model components, has allowed us to identify some of the reasons for under predic- tion of stream flow peaks.

  8. A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR FORECASTING HYDROLOGIC CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  9. An integrated hydrologic modeling framework for coupling SWAT with MODFLOW

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), MODFLOW, and Energy Balance based Evapotranspiration (EB_ET) models are extensively used to estimate different components of the hydrological cycle. Surface and subsurface hydrological processes are modeled in SWAT but limited to the extent of shallow aquif...

  10. A question driven socio-hydrological modeling process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, M.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2015-08-01

    Human and hydrological systems are coupled: human activity impacts the hydrological cycle and hydrological conditions can, but do not always, trigger changes in human systems. Traditional modeling approaches with no feedback between hydrological and human systems typically cannot offer insight into how different patterns of natural variability or human induced changes may propagate through this coupled system. Modeling of coupled human and hydrological systems, also called socio-hydrological systems, recognizes the potential for humans to transform hydrological systems and for hydrological conditions to influence human behavior. However, this coupling introduces new challenges and existing literature does not offer clear guidance regarding the choice of modeling structure, scope, and detail. A shared understanding of important processes within the field is often used to develop hydrological models, but there is no such consensus on the relevant processes in socio-hydrological systems. Here we present a question driven process to address these challenges. Such an approach allows modeling structure, scope, and detail to remain contingent and adaptive to the question context. We demonstrate its utility by exploring a question: what is the impact of reservoir operation policy on the reliability of water supply for a growing city? Our example model couples hydrological and human systems by linking the rate of demand decreases to the past reliability to compare standard operating policy (SOP) with hedging policy (HP). The model shows that reservoir storage acts both as a buffer for variability and as a delay triggering oscillations around a sustainable level of demand. HP reduces the threshold for action thereby decreasing the delay and the oscillation effect. As a result per capita demand decreases during periods of water stress are more frequent but less drastic and the additive effect of small adjustments decreases the tendency of the system to overshoot available

  11. Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and

  12. Recent developments for the advancement of hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    This talk will consist of three parts: In the first, I will pick up the major questions formulated in the session outline (theories to support hydrological model development, representation of emergent behavior, optimality principles and landscape structure in models, approaches for model evaluation and selection) and present and discuss recent examples for each. In the second part, I will reflect on what the consideration of the above desirables implies for the way we should structure and implement hydrological models. Finally, I will illustrate the latter point with examples from the CAOS model (a mesoscale hydrological model currently under construction in the framework of the Catchments As Organized Systems research group).

  13. Changing ideas in hydrology — The case of physically-based models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, Keith

    1989-01-01

    This paper argues that there are fundamental problems in the application of physically-based models for practical prediction in hydrology. These problems result from limitations of the model equations relative to a heterogeneous reality; the lack of a theory of subgrid scale integration; practical constraints on solution methodologies; and problems of dimensionality in parameter calibration. It is suggested that most current applications of physically-based models use them as lumped conceptual models at the grid scale. Recent papers on physically-based models have misunderstood and misrepresented these limitations. There are practical hydrological problems requiring physically-based predictions, and there will continue to be a need for physically-based models but ideas about their capabilities must change so that future applications attempt to obtain realistic estimates of the uncertainty associated with their predictions, particularly in the case of evaluating future scenarios of the effects of management strategies.

  14. Global scale hydrology - Advances in land surface modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, E.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Research into global scale hydrology is an expanding area that includes researchers from the meteorology, climatology, ecology and hydrology communities. This paper reviews research in this area carried out in the United States during the last IUGG quadrennial period of 1987-1990. The review covers the representation of land-surface hydrologic processes for general circulation models (GCMs), sensitivity analysis of these representations on global hydrologic fields like precipitation, regional studies of climate that have global hydrologic implications, recent field studies and experiments whose aims are the improved understanding of land surface-atmospheric interactions, and the use of remotely sensed data for the further understanding of the spatial variability of surface hydrologic processes that are important at regional and global climate scales. 76 refs.

  15. Evaluation of Community Land Model Hydrologic Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, K. Y.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Bohn, T.; Delire, C.

    2005-12-01

    Confidence in representation and parameterization of land surface processes in coupled land-atmosphere models is strongly dependent on a diversity of opportunities for model testing, since such coupled models are usually intended for application in a wide range of conditions (regional models) or globally. Land surface models have been increasing in complexity over the past decade, which has increased the demands on data sets appropriate for model testing and evaluation. In this study, we compare the performance of two commonly used land surface schemes - the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Community Land Model (CLM) with respect to their ability to reproduce observed water and energy fluxes in off-line tests for two large river basins with contrasting hydroclimatic conditions spanning the range from temperate continental to arctic, and for five point (column flux) sites spanning the range from tropical to arctic. The two large river basins are the Arkansas-Red in U.S. southern Great Plains, and the Torne-Kalix in northern Scandinavia. The column flux evaluations are for a tropical forest site at Reserva Jaru (ABRACOS) in Brazil, a prairie site (FIFE) near Manhattan, Kansas in the central U.S., a soybean site at Caumont (HAPEX-Monbilhy) in France, a meadow site at Cabauw in the Netherlands, and a small grassland catchment at Valday, Russia. The results indicate that VIC can reasonably well capture the land surface biophysical processes, while CLM is somewhat less successful. We suggest changes to the CLM parameterizations that would improve its general performance with respect to its representation of land surface hydrologic processes.

  16. On the Performance of Alternate Conceptual Ecohydrological Models for Streamflow Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naseem, Bushra; Ajami, Hoori; Cordery, Ian; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    A merging of a lumped conceptual hydrological model with two conceptual dynamic vegetation models is presented to assess the performance of these models for simultaneous simulations of streamflow and leaf area index (LAI). Two conceptual dynamic vegetation models with differing representation of ecological processes are merged with a lumped conceptual hydrological model (HYMOD) to predict catchment scale streamflow and LAI. The merged RR-LAI-I model computes relative leaf biomass based on transpiration rates while the RR-LAI-II model computes above ground green and dead biomass based on net primary productivity and water use efficiency in response to soil moisture dynamics. To assess the performance of these models, daily discharge and 8-day MODIS LAI product for 27 catchments of 90 - 1600km2 in size located in the Murray - Darling Basin in Australia are used. Our results illustrate that when single-objective optimisation was focussed on maximizing the objective function for streamflow or LAI, the other un-calibrated predicted outcome (LAI if streamflow is the focus) was consistently compromised. Thus, single-objective optimization cannot take into account the essence of all processes in the conceptual ecohydrological models. However, multi-objective optimisation showed great strength for streamflow and LAI predictions. Both response outputs were better simulated by RR-LAI-II than RR-LAI-I due to better representation of physical processes such as net primary productivity (NPP) in RR-LAI-II. Our results highlight that simultaneous calibration of streamflow and LAI using a multi-objective algorithm proves to be an attractive tool for improved streamflow predictions.

  17. Hydrology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eisenbies, Mark H.; Hughes, W. Brian

    2000-01-01

    Hydrologic process are the main determinants of the type of wetland located on a site. Precipitation, groundwater, or flooding interact with soil properties and geomorphic setting to yield a complex matrix of conditions that control groundwater flux, water storage and discharge, water chemistry, biotic productivity, biodiversity, and biogeochemical cycling. Hydroperiod affects many abiotic factors that in turn determine plant and animal species composition, biodiversity, primary and secondary productivity, accumulation, of organic matter, and nutrient cycling. Because the hydrologic regime has a major influence on wetland functioning, understanding how hydrologic changes influence ecosystem processes is essential, especially in light of the pressures placed on remaining wetlands by society's demands for water resources and by potential global changes in climate.

  18. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  19. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

  20. Computer-assisted mesh generation based on hydrological response units for distributed hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanzana, P.; Jankowfsky, S.; Branger, F.; Braud, I.; Vargas, X.; Hitschfeld, N.; Gironás, J.

    2013-08-01

    Distributed hydrological models rely on a spatial discretization composed of homogeneous units representing different areas within the catchment. Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) typically form the basis of such a discretization. HRUs are generally obtained by intersecting raster or vector layers of land uses, soil types, geology and sub-catchments. Polylines maps representing ditches and river drainage networks can also be used. However this overlapping may result in a mesh with numerical and topological problems not highly representative of the terrain. Thus, a pre-processing is needed to improve the mesh in order to avoid negative effects on the performance of the hydrological model. This paper proposes computer-assisted mesh generation tools to obtain a more regular and physically meaningful mesh of HRUs suitable for hydrologic modeling. We combined existing tools with newly developed scripts implemented in GRASS GIS. The developed scripts address the following problems: (1) high heterogeneity in Digital Elevation Model derived properties within the HRUs, (2) correction of concave polygons or polygons with holes inside, (3) segmentation of very large polygons, and (4) bad estimations of units' perimeter and distances among them. The improvement process was applied and tested using two small catchments in France. The improvement of the spatial discretization was further assessed by comparing the representation and arrangement of overland flow paths in the original and improved meshes. Overall, a more realistic physical representation was obtained with the improved meshes, which should enhance the computation of surface and sub-surface flows in a hydrologic model.

  1. The Aircraft Availability Model: Conceptual Framework and Mathematics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-06-01

    THE AIRCRAFT AVAILABILITY MODEL: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND MATHEMATICS June 1983 T. J. O’Malley Prepared pursuant to Department of Defense Contract No...OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED The Aircraft Availability Model: Model Documentation Conceptual Framework and Mathematics 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER

  2. NADM Conceptual Model 1.0 -- A Conceptual Model for Geologic Map Information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2004-01-01

    Executive Summary -- The NADM Data Model Design Team was established in 1999 by the North American Geologic Map Data Model Steering Committee (NADMSC) with the purpose of drafting a geologic map data model for consideration as a standard for developing interoperable geologic map-centered databases by state, provincial, and federal geological surveys. The model is designed to be a technology-neutral conceptual model that can form the basis for a web-based interchange format using evolving information technology (e.g., XML, RDF, OWL), and guide implementation of geoscience databases in a common conceptual framework. The intended purpose is to allow geologic information sharing between geologic map data providers and users, independent of local information system implementation. The model emphasizes geoscience concepts and relationships related to information presented on geologic maps. Design has been guided by an informal requirements analysis, documentation of existing databases, technology developments, and other standardization efforts in the geoscience and computer-science communities. A key aspect of the model is the notion that representation of the conceptual framework (ontology) that underlies geologic map data must be part of the model, because this framework changes with time and understanding, and varies between information providers. The top level of the model distinguishes geologic concepts, geologic representation concepts, and metadata. The geologic representation part of the model provides a framework for representing the ontology that underlies geologic map data through a controlled vocabulary, and for establishing the relationships between this vocabulary and a geologic map visualization or portrayal. Top-level geologic classes in the model are Earth material (substance), geologic unit (parts of the Earth), geologic age, geologic structure, fossil, geologic process, geologic relation, and geologic event.

  3. Precipitation-centered Conceptual Model for Sub-humid Uplands in Lampasas Cut Plains, TX

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potter, S. R.; Tu, M.; Wilcox, B. P.

    2011-12-01

    Conceptual understandings of dominant hydrological processes, system interactions and feedbacks, and external forcings operating within catchments often defy simple definition and explanation, especially catchments encompassing transition zones, degraded landscapes, rapid development, and where climate forcings exhibit large variations across time and space. However, it is precisely those areas for which understanding and knowledge are most needed to innovate sustainable management strategies and counter past management blunders and failed restoration efforts. The cut plain of central Texas is one such area. Complex geographic and climatic factors lead to spatially and temporally variable precipitation having frequent dry periods interrupted by intense high-volume precipitation. Fort Hood, an army post located in the southeast cut plain contains landscapes ranging from highly degraded to nearly pristine with a topography mainly comprised of flat-topped mesas separated by broad u-shaped valleys. To understand the hydrology of the area and responses to wet-dry cycles we analyzed 4-years of streamflow and rainfall from 8 catchments, sized between 1819 and 16,000 ha. Since aquifer recharge/discharge and surface stream-groundwater interactions are unimportant, we hypothesized a simple conceptual model driven by precipitation and radiative forcings and having stormflow, baseflow, ET, and two hypothetical storage components. The key storage component was conceptualized as a buffer that was highly integrated with the ET component and exerted controls on baseflow. Radiative energy controlled flux from the buffer to ET. We used the conceptual model in making a bimonthly hydrologic budget, which included buffer volumes and a deficit-surplus indicator. Through the analysis, we were led to speculate that buffer capacity plays key roles in these landscapes and even relatively minor changes in capacity, due to soil compaction for example, might lead to ecological shifts. The

  4. Ecohydrologic Response of a Wetland Indicator Species to Climate Change and Streamflow Regulation: A Conceptual Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, E. M.; Gorelick, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Peace-Athabasca Delta ("Delta") in northeastern Alberta, Canada, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. Delta ecohydrology is expected to respond rapidly to upstream water demand and climate change, with earlier spring meltwater, decreased springtime peak flow, and a decline in springtime ice-jam flooding. We focus on changes in the population and distribution of muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus), an ecohydrologic indicator species. We present a conceptual model linking hydrology and muskrat ecology. Our conceptual model links seven modules representing (1) upstream water demand, (2) streamflow and snowmelt, (3) floods, (4) the water balance of floodplain lakes, (5) muskrat habitat suitability, (6) wetland vegetation, and (7) muskrat population dynamics predicted using an agent-based model. Our goal is to evaluate the effects of different climate change and upstream water demand scenarios on the abundance and distribution of Delta muskrat, from present-2100. Moving from the current conceptual model to a predictive quantitative model, we will rely on abundant existing data and Traditional Ecological Knowledge of muskrat and hydrology in the Delta.

  5. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayzel, Georgy

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  6. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  7. Conceptual Model of Water Resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mack, Thomas J.; Akbari, M. Amin; Ashoor, M. Hanif; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Litke, David W.; Michel, Robert L.; Plummer, L. Niel; Rezai, M. Taher; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Geological Survey has been working with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resources investigations in the Kabul Basin under an agreement supported by the United States Agency for International Development. This collaborative investigation compiled, to the extent possible in a war-stricken country, a varied hydrogeologic data set and developed limited data-collection networks to assist with the management of water resources in the Kabul Basin. This report presents the results of a multidisciplinary water-resources assessment conducted between 2005 and 2007 to address questions of future water availability for a growing population and of the potential effects of climate change. Most hydrologic and climatic data-collection activities in Afghanistan were interrupted in the early 1980s as a consequence of war and civil strife and did not resume until 2003 or later. Because of the gap of more than 20 years in the record of hydrologic and climatic observations, this investigation has made considerable use of remotely sensed data and, where available, historical records to investigate the water resources of the Kabul Basin. Specifically, this investigation integrated recently acquired remotely sensed data and satellite imagery, including glacier and climatic data; recent climate-change analyses; recent geologic investigations; analysis of streamflow data; groundwater-level analysis; surface-water- and groundwater-quality data, including data on chemical and isotopic environmental tracers; and estimates of public-supply and agricultural water uses. The data and analyses were integrated by using a simplified groundwater-flow model to test the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to assess current (2007) and future (2057) water availability. Recharge in the basin is spatially and temporally variable and generally occurs near streams and irrigated areas in the late winter and early

  8. Hydrological Modeling of the Jiaoyi Watershed (China) Using HSPF Model

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001–2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R2), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin. PMID:25013863

  9. Showing Automatically Generated Students' Conceptual Models to Students and Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perez-Marin, Diana; Pascual-Nieto, Ismael

    2010-01-01

    A student conceptual model can be defined as a set of interconnected concepts associated with an estimation value that indicates how well these concepts are used by the students. It can model just one student or a group of students, and can be represented as a concept map, conceptual diagram or one of several other knowledge representation…

  10. Conceptual Model Learning Objects and Design Recommendations for Small Screens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Churchill, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    This article presents recommendations for the design of conceptual models for applications via handheld devices such as personal digital assistants and some mobile phones. The recommendations were developed over a number of years through experience that involves design of conceptual models, and applications of these multimedia representations with…

  11. Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

    2000-01-01

    Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

  12. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  13. Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, Martyn P.; Fan, Ying; Lawrence, David M.; Adam, Jennifer C.; Bolster, Diogo; Gochis, David J.; Hooper, Richard P.; Kumar, Mukesh; Leung, L. Ruby; Mackay, D. Scott; Maxwell, Reed M.; Shen, Chaopeng; Swenson, Sean C.; Zeng, Xubin

    2015-08-21

    Many of the scientific and societal challenges in understanding and preparing for global environmental change rest upon our ability to understand and predict the water cycle change at large river basin, continent, and global scales. However, current large-scale models, such as the land components of Earth System Models (ESMs), do not yet represent the terrestrial water cycle in a fully integrated manner or resolve the finer-scale processes that can dominate large-scale water budgets. This paper reviews the current representation of hydrologic processes in ESMs and identifies the key opportunities for improvement. This review suggests that (1) the development of ESMs has not kept pace with modeling advances in hydrology, both through neglecting key processes (e.g., groundwater) and neglecting key aspects of spatial variability and hydrologic connectivity; and (2) many modeling advances in hydrology can readily be incorporated into ESMs and substantially improve predictions of the water cycle. Accelerating modeling advances in ESMs requires comprehensive hydrologic benchmarking activities, in order to systematically evaluate competing modeling alternatives, understand model weaknesses, and prioritize model development needs. This demands stronger collaboration, both through greater engagement of hydrologists in ESM development and through more detailed evaluation of ESM processes in research watersheds. Advances in the representation of hydrologic process in ESMs can substantially improve energy, carbon and nutrient cycle prediction capabilities through the fundamental role the water cycle plays in regulating these cycles.

  14. Consistency between hydrological models and field observations: Linking processes at the hillslope scale to hydrological responses at the watershed scale

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Rupp, D.E.; Woods, R.A.; Tromp-van, Meerveld; Peters, N.E.; Freer, J.E.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to identify simple connections between observations of hydrological processes at the hillslope scale and observations of the response of watersheds following rainfall, with a view to building a parsimonious model of catchment processes. The focus is on the well-studied Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW), Georgia, USA. Recession analysis of discharge Q shows that while the relationship between dQ/dt and Q is approximately consistent with a linear reservoir for the hillslope, there is a deviation from linearity that becomes progressively larger with increasing spatial scale. To account for these scale differences conceptual models of streamflow recession are defined at both the hillslope scale and the watershed scale, and an assessment made as to whether models at the hillslope scale can be aggregated to be consistent with models at the watershed scale. Results from this study show that a model with parallel linear reservoirs provides the most plausible explanation (of those tested) for both the linear hillslope response to rainfall and non-linear recession behaviour observed at the watershed outlet. In this model each linear reservoir is associated with a landscape type. The parallel reservoir model is consistent with both geochemical analyses of hydrological flow paths and water balance estimates of bedrock recharge. Overall, this study demonstrates that standard approaches of using recession analysis to identify the functional form of storage-discharge relationships identify model structures that are inconsistent with field evidence, and that recession analysis at multiple spatial scales can provide useful insights into catchment behaviour. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  16. Assessing Hydrological Extreme Events with Geospatial Data and Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vivoni, Enrique R.; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Nardi, Fernando; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Castelli, Fabio; Bras, Rafael L.; Ubertini, Lucio

    2004-09-01

    Prediction of river basin hydrological response to extreme meteorological events is a primary concern in areas with frequent flooding, landslides, and debris flows. Natural hydrogeological disasters in many regions lead to extensive property damage, impact on societal activities, and loss of life. Hydrologists have a long history of assessing and predicting hydrologic hazards through the combined use of field observations, monitoring networks, remote sensing, and numerical modeling. Nevertheless, the integration of field data and computer models has yet to result in prediction systems that capture space-time interactions between meteorological forcing, land surface characteristics, and the internal hydrological response in river basins. Capabilities for assessing hydrologic extreme events are greatly enhanced via the use of geospatial data sets describing watershed properties such as topography, channel structure, soils, vegetation, and geological features. Recent advances in managing, processing, and visualizing cartographic data with geographic information systems (GIS) have enabled their direct use in spatially distributed hydrological models. In a distributed model application, geospatial data sets can be used to establish the model domain, specify boundary and initial conditions, determine the spatial variation of parameter values, and provide the spatial model forcing. By representing a watershed through a set of discrete elements, distributed models simulate water, energy, and mass transport in a landscape and provide estimates of the spatial pattern of hydrologic states, fluxes, and pathways.

  17. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to stimulate a re-thinking of how we, the catchment hydrologists, could become reliable forecasters. A group of catchment modellers predicted the hydrological response of a man-made 6 ha catchment in its initial phase (Chicken Creek) without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different model families. Their modelling experience differed largely. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the 1st prediction modellers received a basic data set describing the internal structure of the catchment (somewhat more complete than usually available to a priori predictions in ungauged catchments). They did not obtain time series of stream flow, soil moisture or groundwater response. (2) Before the 2nd improved prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and attended a workshop where the modellers presented and discussed their first attempts. (3) For their improved 3rd prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step 1. Here, we detail the modeller's decisions in accounting for the various processes based on what they learned during the field visit (step 2) and add the final outcome of step 3 when the modellers made use of additional data. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the 2nd and 3rd step, the progress in prediction quality could be evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of added information. We learned (i) that soft information such as the modeller's system understanding is as important as the model itself (hard information), (ii) that the sequence of modelling steps matters (field visit, interactions between differently experienced experts, choice of model, selection of available data, and methods for parameter guessing

  18. Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajbhandaril, Narayan; Crosson, William; Tsegaye, Teferi; Coleman, Tommy; Liu, Yaping; Soman, Vishwas

    1998-01-01

    Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

  19. On Correct Likelihoods and Model Combinations: A Bayesian Multi-Model Conceptual Framework for Structural Uncertainty Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehrotra, R.; Smith, T. J.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    The use of data in conceptual hydrologic modeling applications typically occurs on two levels; model driving data/input data (precipitation, evapotranspiration) and model checking data/output data (observed stream outlet discharge). However, the uncertainty of these data limits their ability to inform the choice of a “true” model structure. In this research, we present a framework approach that focuses on the intersect of two primary areas for improved assessment of model structures and their uncertainty: (1) an investigation into multiple model conceptualizations for structural uncertainty assessment and (2) an examination of the use of formal likelihood functions under a Bayesian statistical approach. The use of formal Bayesian methodologies for hydrologic model parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is predicated on the selection of an adequate likelihood function, which makes strong assumptions about the form of the model residuals. By better addressing this area of the modeling problem, the analysis of the model structural uncertainty in light of the traditional data sources (precipitation, evapotranspiration, stream discharge) is simplified. In concert with the effort to more appropriately apply the Bayesian approach, the use of multiple conceptual model structures into the analysis deals directly with the objective of better quantifying model structural uncertainty. Previous studies that have addressed the structural uncertainty issue from a multiple model vantage point have found promising results. The findings of this study suggest that improved statistical inference brought about by careful attention to the assumptions of the formal likelihood function combined with analysis of multiple model conceptualizations have the potential to afford a better understanding of model structural uncertainty. An intended outcome of this research, and part of future study, is to produce techniques that prove beneficial for use in regionalization studies for

  20. A spatially distributed hydrologic model utilizing raster data structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Dennis L.; Miller, Arthur C.

    1997-04-01

    A distributed hydrologic model, known as the Terrestrial Hydrologic Model or THM was developed for use with rasterized databases to simulate surface runoff. Computations are performed on a pixel-by-pixel basis and all physical drainage basin properties including area, slope, stream length, and stream order are obtained or estimated from a digital elevation model (DEM). Other data sets, such as curve numbers or infiltration rates, are required for estimating the hydrologic abstractions. Precipitation is supplied in the form of gage input, uniform distributions, or raster data. At the present time, hydrologic abstractions can be estimated by any of three methods: a constant infiltration rate, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method, or solution of the more physically based Green-Ampt equation. Overland flow is computed by a kinematic wave approximation and channel routing is performed using the Muskingum-Cunge method.

  1. Conceptual model for heart failure disease management.

    PubMed

    Andrikopoulou, Efstathia; Abbate, Kariann; Whellan, David J

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this review is to propose a conceptual model for heart failure (HF) disease management (HFDM) and to define the components of an efficient HFDM plan in reference to this model. Articles that evaluated 1 or more of the following aspects of HFDM were reviewed: (1) outpatient clinic follow-up; (2) self-care interventions to enhance patient skills; and (3) remote evaluation of worsening HF either using structured telephone support (STS) or by monitoring device data (telemonitoring). The success of programs in reducing readmissions and mortality were mixed. Outpatient follow-up programs generally resulted in improved outcomes, including decreased readmissions. Based on 1 meta-analysis, specialty clinics improved outcomes and nonspecialty clinics did not. Results from self-care programs were inconsistent and might have been affected by patient cognitive status and educational level, and intervention intensity. Telemonitoring, despite initially promising meta-analyses demonstrating a decrease in the number and duration of HF-related readmissions and all-cause mortality rates at follow-up, has not been shown in randomized trials to consistently reduce readmissions or mortality. However, evidence from device monitoring trials in particular might have been influenced by technology and design issues that might be rectified in future trials. Results from the literature suggest that the ideal HFDM plan would include outpatient follow-up at an HF specialty clinic and continuous education to improve patient self-care. The end result of this plan would lead to better understanding on the part of the patient and improved patient ability to recognize and respond to signs of decompensation.

  2. Thoughts about conceptual models, theories, and quality improvement projects.

    PubMed

    Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2014-10-01

    This essay focuses on how a conceptual model of nursing can be the basis for identification of the phenomenon of interest for a quality improvement project and how a theory of quality improvement or a theory of change is the methodological guide for the project. An explanation and examples of conceptual-theoretical-empirical structures for quality improvement projects are given.

  3. Using Conceptual Change Theories to Model Position Concepts in Astronomy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Chih-Chiang; Hung, Jeng-Fung

    2012-01-01

    The roles of conceptual change and model building in science education are very important and have a profound and wide effect on teaching science. This study examines the change in children's position concepts after instruction, based on different conceptual change theories. Three classes were chosen and divided into three groups, including a…

  4. Model of Conceptual Change for INQPRO: A Bayesian Network Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ting, Choo-Yee; Sam, Yok-Cheng; Wong, Chee-Onn

    2013-01-01

    Constructing a computational model of conceptual change for a computer-based scientific inquiry learning environment is difficult due to two challenges: (i) externalizing the variables of conceptual change and its related variables is difficult. In addition, defining the causal dependencies among the variables is also not trivial. Such difficulty…

  5. Hydrologic Modeling Strategy for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, Michael J.

    2008-01-01

    The government of Mauritania is interested in how to maintain hydrologic balance to ensure a long-term stable water supply for minerals-related, domestic, and other purposes. Because of the many complicating and competing natural and anthropogenic factors, hydrologists will perform quantitative analysis with specific objectives and relevant computer models in mind. Whereas various computer models are available for studying water-resource priorities, the success of these models to provide reliable predictions largely depends on adequacy of the model-calibration process. Predictive analysis helps us evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty associated with simulated dependent variables of our calibrated model. In this report, the hydrologic modeling process is reviewed and a strategy summarized for future Mauritanian hydrologic modeling studies.

  6. Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

    2015-04-01

    The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and

  7. HESS Opinions ``Classification of hydrological models for flood management"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plate, E. J.

    2009-10-01

    Hydrological models for flood management are components of flood risk management, which is the set of actions to be taken to prevent flood disasters. It is a cyclical process: initiated by occurrence of an extreme flood it leads through the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase to risk assessment and project planning and implementation, and finally to operation and preparedness for a next extreme flood when the cycle starts again. We subdivide the tasks of flood management into two consecutive parts: planning and operation, which basically require different kinds of hydrological models. For planning, real time runoff is not needed, one works with design scenarios. For this task models should be used appropriate to the tasks at hand, which reflect characteristics of landscape as well as of hydrological scale. For operation, hydrological forecast models are needed which have to meet a different set of conditions. In this paper, requirements for hydrological models as functions of application, geology and topography, and of area size are surveyed and classified, as a first approach for guiding users to the correct type of model to be used in a given location. It is suggested that one always should start flood modeling with an analysis of local conditions and select or develop task and locality specific models.

  8. Open source data assimilation framework for hydrological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridler, Marc; Hummel, Stef; van Velzen, Nils; Katrine Falk, Anne; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-04-01

    An open-source data assimilation framework is proposed for hydrological modeling. Data assimilation (DA) in hydrodynamic and hydrological forecasting systems has great potential to improve predictions and improve model result. The basic principle is to incorporate measurement information into a model with the aim to improve model results by error minimization. Great strides have been made to assimilate traditional in-situ measurements such as discharge, soil moisture, hydraulic head and snowpack into hydrologic models. More recently, remotely sensed data retrievals of soil moisture, snow water equivalent or snow cover area, surface water elevation, terrestrial water storage and land surface temperature have been successfully assimilated in hydrological models. The assimilation algorithms have become increasingly sophisticated to manage measurement and model bias, non-linear systems, data sparsity (time & space) and undetermined system uncertainty. It is therefore useful to use a pre-existing DA toolbox such as OpenDA. OpenDA is an open interface standard for (and free implementation of) a set of tools to quickly implement DA and calibration for arbitrary numerical models. The basic design philosophy of OpenDA is to breakdown DA into a set of building blocks programmed in object oriented languages. To implement DA, a model must interact with OpenDA to create model instances, propagate the model, get/set variables (or parameters) and free the model once DA is completed. An open-source interface for hydrological models exists capable of all these tasks: OpenMI. OpenMI is an open source standard interface already adopted by key hydrological model providers. It defines a universal approach to interact with hydrological models during simulation to exchange data during runtime, thus facilitating the interactions between models and data sources. The interface is flexible enough so that models can interact even if the model is coded in a different language, represent

  9. Moving horizon estimation for assimilating H-SAF remote sensing data into the HBV hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero, Rodolfo Alvarado; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Krahe, Peter; Lisniak, Dmytro; Sensoy, Aynur; Sorman, A. Arda; Akkol, Bulut

    2016-06-01

    Remote sensing information has been extensively developed over the past few years including spatially distributed data for hydrological applications at high resolution. The implementation of these products in operational flow forecasting systems is still an active field of research, wherein data assimilation plays a vital role on the improvement of initial conditions of streamflow forecasts. We present a novel implementation of a variational method based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE), in application to the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV, to simultaneously assimilate remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA), snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture (SM) and in situ measurements of streamflow data using large assimilation windows of up to one year. This innovative application of the MHE approach allows to simultaneously update precipitation, temperature, soil moisture as well as upper and lower zones water storages of the conceptual model, within the assimilation window, without an explicit formulation of error covariance matrixes and it enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the agreement of simulated and observed variables. The framework is tested in two data-dense sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. Results show a potential improvement of the lead time performance of streamflow forecasts by using perfect time series of state variables generated by the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model itself. The framework is also tested using new operational data products from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) of EUMETSAT. This study is the first application of H-SAF products to hydrological forecasting systems and it verifies their added value. Results from assimilating H-SAF observations lead to a slight reduction of the streamflow forecast skill in all three cases compared to the assimilation of streamflow data only. On the other hand

  10. Strategies for using remotely sensed data in hydrologic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peck, E. L.; Keefer, T. N.; Johnson, E. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    Present and planned remote sensing capabilities were evaluated. The usefulness of six remote sensing capabilities (soil moisture, land cover, impervious area, areal extent of snow cover, areal extent of frozen ground, and water equivalent of the snow cover) with seven hydrologic models (API, CREAMS, NWSRFS, STORM, STANFORD, SSARR, and NWSRFS Snowmelt) were reviewed. The results indicate remote sensing information has only limited value for use with the hydrologic models in their present form. With minor modifications to the models the usefulness would be enhanced. Specific recommendations are made for incorporating snow covered area measurements in the NWSRFS Snowmelt model. Recommendations are also made for incorporating soil moisture measurements in NWSRFS. Suggestions are made for incorporating snow covered area, soil moisture, and others in STORM and SSARR. General characteristics of a hydrologic model needed to make maximum use of remotely sensed data are discussed. Suggested goals for improvements in remote sensing for use in models are also established.

  11. Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

    2014-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall

  12. Multivariate data assimilation in an integrated hydrological modelling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Henrik; Zhang, Donghua; Ridler, Marc; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The immensely increasing availability of in-situ and remotely sensed hydrological data has offered new opportunities for monitoring and forecasting water resources by combining observation data with hydrological modelling. Efficient multivariate data assimilation in integrated groundwater - surface water hydrological modelling systems are required to fully utilize and optimally combine the different types of observation data. A particular challenge is the assimilation of observation data of different hydrological variables from different monitoring instruments, representing a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and different levels of uncertainty. A multivariate data assimilation framework has been implemented in the MIKE SHE integrated hydrological modelling system by linking the MIKE SHE code with a generic data assimilation library. The data assimilation library supports different state-of-the-art ensemble-based Kalman filter methods, and includes procedures for localisation, joint state, parameter and model error estimation, and bias-aware filtering. Furthermore, it supports use of different stochastic error models to describe model and measurement errors. Results are presented that demonstrate the use of the data assimilation framework for assimilation of different data types in a catchment-scale MIKE SHE model.

  13. HESS Opinions "Classification of hydrological models for flood management"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plate, E. J.

    2009-07-01

    Hydrological models for flood management are components of flood risk management, which is the set of actions to be taken to prevent flood disasters. It is a cyclical process: initiated by occurrence of an extreme flood it leads through the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase to risk assessment and project planning and implementation, and finally to operation and preparedness for a next extreme flood when the cycle starts again. We subdivide the tasks of flood management into two consecutive parts: planning and operation, which basically require different kinds of hydrological models. For planning, real time runoff is not needed, one works with design scenarios. For this task models should be used appropriate to the tasks at hand, which reflect characteristics of landscape as well as of hydrological scale. For operation, hydrological forecast models are needed which have to meet a different set of conditions. In this paper, requirements for hydrological models as functions of application, geology and topography, and of area size are surveyed. It is suggested that we always should start flood modeling with an analysis of local conditions and select or develop task and locality specific models.

  14. Use of different sampling schemes in machine learning-based prediction of hydrological models' uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri; Lal Shrestha, Durga; van Griensven, Ann

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, a lot of attention in the hydrologic literature is given to model parameter uncertainty analysis. The robustness estimation of uncertainty depends on the efficiency of sampling method used to generate the best fit responses (outputs) and on ease of use. This paper aims to investigate: (1) how sampling strategies effect the uncertainty estimations of hydrological models, (2) how to use this information in machine learning predictors of models uncertainty. Sampling of parameters may employ various algorithms. We compared seven different algorithms namely, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), partical swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO) [1]. These methods were applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflow simulation using conceptual model HBV and Semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT. Nzoia catchment in West Kenya is considered as the case study. The results are compared and analysed based on the shape of the posterior distribution of parameters, uncertainty results on model outputs. The MLUE method [2] uses results of Monte Carlo sampling (or any other sampling shceme) to build a machine learning (regression) model U able to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a hydrological model H outputs. Inputs to these models are specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train such a model U, which leads to several models (and there is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison). A solution could be to form a committee of all models U and

  15. Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schimel, David S.

    1992-01-01

    Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

  16. Numerical daemons in hydrological modeling: Effects on uncertainty assessment, sensitivity analysis and model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavetski, D.; Clark, M. P.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologists often face sources of uncertainty that dwarf those normally encountered in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Especially when representing large scale integrated systems, internal heterogeneities such as stream networks, preferential flowpaths, vegetation, etc, are necessarily represented with a considerable degree of lumping. The inputs to these models are themselves often the products of sparse observational networks. Given the simplifications inherent in environmental models, especially lumped conceptual models, does it really matter how they are implemented? At the same time, given the complexities usually found in the response surfaces of hydrological models, increasingly sophisticated analysis methodologies are being proposed for sensitivity analysis, parameter calibration and uncertainty assessment. Quite remarkably, rather than being caused by the model structure/equations themselves, in many cases model analysis complexities are consequences of seemingly trivial aspects of the model implementation - often, literally, whether the start-of-step or end-of-step fluxes are used! The extent of problems can be staggering, including (i) degraded performance of parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis algorithms, (ii) erroneous and/or misleading conclusions of sensitivity analysis, parameter inference and model interpretations and, finally, (iii) poor reliability of a calibrated model in predictive applications. While the often nontrivial behavior of numerical approximations has long been recognized in applied mathematics and in physically-oriented fields of environmental sciences, it remains a problematic issue in many environmental modeling applications. Perhaps detailed attention to numerics is only warranted for complicated engineering models? Would not numerical errors be an insignificant component of total uncertainty when typical data and model approximations are present? Is this really a serious issue beyond some rare isolated

  17. Advancing Collaboration through Hydrologic Data and Model Sharing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Idaszak, R.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Ames, D. P.; Goodall, J. L.; Band, L. E.; Merwade, V.; Couch, A.; Hooper, R. P.; Maidment, D. R.; Dash, P. K.; Stealey, M.; Yi, H.; Gan, T.; Castronova, A. M.; Miles, B.; Li, Z.; Morsy, M. M.

    2015-12-01

    HydroShare is an online, collaborative system for open sharing of hydrologic data, analytical tools, and models. It supports the sharing of and collaboration around "resources" which are defined primarily by standardized metadata, content data models for each resource type, and an overarching resource data model based on the Open Archives Initiative's Object Reuse and Exchange (OAI-ORE) standard and a hierarchical file packaging system called "BagIt". HydroShare expands the data sharing capability of the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System by broadening the classes of data accommodated to include geospatial and multidimensional space-time datasets commonly used in hydrology. HydroShare also includes new capability for sharing models, model components, and analytical tools and will take advantage of emerging social media functionality to enhance information about and collaboration around hydrologic data and models. It also supports web services and server/cloud based computation operating on resources for the execution of hydrologic models and analysis and visualization of hydrologic data. HydroShare uses iRODS as a network file system for underlying storage of datasets and models. Collaboration is enabled by casting datasets and models as "social objects". Social functions include both private and public sharing, formation of collaborative groups of users, and value-added annotation of shared datasets and models. The HydroShare web interface and social media functions were developed using the Django web application framework coupled to iRODS. Data visualization and analysis is supported through the Tethys Platform web GIS software stack. Links to external systems are supported by RESTful web service interfaces to HydroShare's content. This presentation will introduce the HydroShare functionality developed to date and describe ongoing development of functionality to support collaboration and integration of data and models.

  18. A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological model nonstationarity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Thyer, Mark; Leonard, Michael; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lambert, Martin

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents a strategy for diagnosing and interpreting hydrological nonstationarity, aiming to improve hydrological models and their predictive ability under changing hydroclimatic conditions. The strategy consists of four elements: (i) detecting potential systematic errors in the calibration data; (ii) hypothesizing a set of "nonstationary" parameterizations of existing hydrological model structures, where one or more parameters vary in time as functions of selected covariates; (iii) trialing alternative stationary model structures to assess whether parameter nonstationarity can be reduced by modifying the model structure; and (iv) selecting one or more models for prediction. The Scott Creek catchment in South Australia and the lumped hydrological model GR4J are used to illustrate the strategy. Streamflow predictions improve significantly when the GR4J parameter describing the maximum capacity of the production store is allowed to vary in time as a combined function of: (i) an annual sinusoid; (ii) the previous 365 day rainfall and potential evapotranspiration; and (iii) a linear trend. This improvement provides strong evidence of model nonstationarity. Based on a range of hydrologically oriented diagnostics such as flow-duration curves, the GR4J model structure was modified by introducing an additional calibration parameter that controls recession behavior and by making actual evapotranspiration dependent only on catchment storage. Model comparison using an information-theoretic measure (the Akaike Information Criterion) and several hydrologically oriented diagnostics shows that the GR4J modifications clearly improve predictive performance in Scott Creek catchment. Based on a comparison of 22 versions of GR4J with different representations of nonstationarity and other modifications, the model selection approach applied in the exploratory period (used for parameter estimation) correctly identifies models that perform well in a much drier independent

  19. Models for hydrologic design of evapotranspiration landfill covers.

    PubMed

    Hauser, Victor L; Gimon, Dianna M; Bonta, James V; Howell, Terry A; Malone, Robert W; Williams, Jimmy R

    2005-09-15

    The technology used in landfill covers is changing, and an alternative cover called the evapotranspiration (ET) landfill cover is coming into use. Important design requirements are prescribed by Federal rules and regulations for conventional landfill covers but not for ET landfill covers. There is no accepted hydrologic model for ET landfill cover design. This paper describes ET cover requirements and design issues, and assesses the accuracy of the EPIC and HELP hydrologic models when used for hydrologic design of ET covers. We tested the models against high-quality field measurements available from lysimeters maintained by the Agricultural Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture at Coshocton, Ohio, and Bushland, Texas. The HELP model produced substantial errors in estimating hydrologic variables. The EPIC model estimated ET and deep percolation with errors less than 7% and 5%, respectively, and accurately matched extreme events with an error of less than 2% of precipitation. The EPIC model is suitable for use in hydrologic design of ET landfill covers.

  20. Hydrologic consistency as a basis for assessing complexity of monthly water balance models for the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Guillermo F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.

    2011-12-01

    Methods to select parsimonious and hydrologically consistent model structures are useful for evaluating dominance of hydrologic processes and representativeness of data. While information criteria (appropriately constrained to obey underlying statistical assumptions) can provide a basis for evaluating appropriate model complexity, it is not sufficient to rely upon the principle of maximum likelihood (ML) alone. We suggest that one must also call upon a "principle of hydrologic consistency," meaning that selected ML structures and parameter estimates must be constrained (as well as possible) to reproduce desired hydrological characteristics of the processes under investigation. This argument is demonstrated in the context of evaluating the suitability of candidate model structures for lumped water balance modeling across the continental United States, using data from 307 snow-free catchments. The models are constrained to satisfy several tests of hydrologic consistency, a flow space transformation is used to ensure better consistency with underlying statistical assumptions, and information criteria are used to evaluate model complexity relative to the data. The results clearly demonstrate that the principle of consistency provides a sensible basis for guiding selection of model structures and indicate strong spatial persistence of certain model structures across the continental United States. Further work to untangle reasons for model structure predominance can help to relate conceptual model structures to physical characteristics of the catchments, facilitating the task of prediction in ungaged basins.

  1. Top-down methodology for rainfall-runoff modelling and evaluation of hydrological extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    A top-down methodology is presented for implementation and calibration of a lumped conceptual catchment rainfall-runoff model that aims to produce high model performance (depending on the quality and availability of data) in terms of rainfall-runoff discharges for the full range from low to high discharges, including the peak and low flow extremes. The model is to be used to support water engineering applications, which most often deal with high and low flows as well as cumulative runoff volumes. With this application in mind, the paper wants to contribute to the above-mentioned problems and advancements on model evaluation, model-structure selection, the overparameterization problem and the long time the modeller needs to invest or the difficulties one encounters when building and calibrating a lumped conceptual model for a river catchment. The methodology is an empirical and step-wise technique that includes examination of the various model components step by step through a data-based analysis of response characteristics. The approach starts from a generalized lumped conceptual model structure. In this structure, only the general components of a lumped conceptual model, such as the existence of storage and routing elements, and their inter-links, are pre-defined. The detailed specifications on model equations and parameters are supported by advanced time series analysis of the empirical response between the rainfall and evapotranspiration inputs and the river flow output. Subresponses are separated and submodel components and related subsets of parameters are calibrated as independently as possible. At the same time, the model-structure identification process aims to reach parsimonious submodel-structures, and accounts for the serial dependency of runoff values, which typically is higher for low flows than for high flows. It also accounts for the heteroscedasticity and dependency of model residuals when evaluating the model performance. It is shown that this step

  2. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

    2014-12-01

    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  3. Impact of improved snowmelt modelling in a monthly hydrological model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folton, Nathalie; Garcia, Florine

    2016-04-01

    The quantification and the management of water resources at the regional scale require hydrological models that are both easy to implement and efficient. To be reliable and robust, these models must be calibrated and validated on a large number of catchments that are representative of various hydro-meteorological conditions, physiographic contexts, and specific hydrological behavior (e.g. mountainous catchments). The GRLoiEau monthly model, with its simple structure and its two free parameters, answer our need of such a simple model. It required the development of a snow routine to model catchments with temporarily snow-covered areas. The snow routine developed here does not claim to represent physical snowmelt processes but rather to simulate them globally on the catchment. The snowmelt equation is based on the degree-day method which is widely used by the hydrological community, in particular in engineering studies (Etchevers 2000). A potential snowmelt (Schaefli et al. 2005) was computed, and the parameters of the snow routine were regionalized for each mountain area. The GRLoiEau parsimonious structure requires meteorological data. They come from the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system SAFRAN, which provides estimations of daily solid and liquid precipitations and temperatures on a regular square grid at the spatial resolution of 8*8 km², throughout France. Potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the formula by Oudin et al. (2005). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of monthly simulations for ungauged basins, in particular for all types of mountain catchments, without increasing the number of free parameters of the model. By using daily SAFRAN data, the production store and snowmelt can be run at a daily time scale. The question then arises whether simulating the monthly flows using a production function at a finer time step would improve the results. And by using the SAFRAN distributed climate series, a distributed approach

  4. Operational use of distributed hydrological models. Experiences and challenges at a Norwegian hydropower company (Agder Energi).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viggo Matheussen, Bernt; Andresen, Arne; Weisser, Claudia

    2014-05-01

    The Scandinavian hydropower industry has traditionally adopted the lumped conceptual hydrological model - HBV, as the tool for producing forecasts of inflows and mountain snow packs. Such forecasting systems - based on lumped conceptual models - have several drawbacks. Firstly, a lumped model does not produce spatial data, and comparisons with remote sensed snow cover data (which are now available) are complicated. Secondly, several climate parameters such as wind speed are now becoming more available and can potentially improve forecasts due to improved estimates of precipitation gauge efficiency, and more physically correct calculation of turbulent heat fluxes. At last, when the number of catchments increases, it is cumbersome and slow to run multiple hydrology models compared to running one model for all catchments. With the drawbacks of the lumped hydrology models in mind, and with inspiration from other forecasting systems using distributed models, Agder Energy decided to develop a forecasting system applying a physically based distributed model. In this paper we describe an operational inflow and snowpack forecast system developed for the Scandinavian mountain range. The system applies a modern macroscale land surface hydrology model (VIC) which in combination with historical climate data and weather predictions can be used to produce both short-term, and seasonal forecasts of inflow and mountain snowpack. Experiences with the forecast system are illustrated using results from individual subcatchments as well as aggregated regional forecasts of inflow and snowpack. Conversion of water volumes into effective energy inflow are also presented and compared to data from the Nordic hydropower system. Further on, we document several important "lessons-learned" that may be of interest to the hydrological research community. Specifically a semi-automatic data cleansing system combining spatial and temporal visualization techniques with statistical procedures are

  5. An Integrative-Interactive Conceptual Model for Curriculum Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Ibrahim, Abdul Rahman H.

    1982-01-01

    The Integrative-Interactive Conceptual Model for Curriculum Development calls for curriculum reform and innovation to be cybernetic so that all aspects of curriculum planning get adequate attention. (CJ)

  6. Analysis of the temporal dynamics of model performance and parameter sensitivity for hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D.; Zehe, E.

    2009-04-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. We present a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution. Information about possible relevant processes during times with distinct model performance is obtained from parameter sensitivity analysis - also with high temporal resolution. We illustrate the combined approach of temporally resolved model performance and parameter sensitivity for a rainfall-runoff modeling case study. The headwater catchment of the Wilde Weisseritz in the eastern Ore mountains is simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The temporally resolved sensitivity analysis is based on the FAST algorithm. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types as well as a time series of the relative parameter sensitivity. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors. The parameter sensitivity helps to identify the relevant model parts.

  7. Hydrological model uncertainty due to spatial evapotranspiration estimation methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xuan; Lamačová, Anna; Duffy, Christopher; Krám, Pavel; Hruška, Jakub

    2016-05-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) continues to be a difficult process to estimate in seasonal and long-term water balances in catchment models. Approaches to estimate ET typically use vegetation parameters (e.g., leaf area index [LAI], interception capacity) obtained from field observation, remote sensing data, national or global land cover products, and/or simulated by ecosystem models. In this study we attempt to quantify the uncertainty that spatial evapotranspiration estimation introduces into hydrological simulations when the age of the forest is not precisely known. The Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) was implemented for the Lysina headwater catchment, located 50°03‧N, 12°40‧E in the western part of the Czech Republic. The spatial forest patterns were digitized from forest age maps made available by the Czech Forest Administration. Two ET methods were implemented in the catchment model: the Biome-BGC forest growth sub-model (1-way coupled to PIHM) and with the fixed-seasonal LAI method. From these two approaches simulation scenarios were developed. We combined the estimated spatial forest age maps and two ET estimation methods to drive PIHM. A set of spatial hydrologic regime and streamflow regime indices were calculated from the modeling results for each method. Intercomparison of the hydrological responses to the spatial vegetation patterns suggested considerable variation in soil moisture and recharge and a small uncertainty in the groundwater table elevation and streamflow. The hydrologic modeling with ET estimated by Biome-BGC generated less uncertainty due to the plant physiology-based method. The implication of this research is that overall hydrologic variability induced by uncertain management practices was reduced by implementing vegetation models in the catchment models.

  8. Modelling hydrological effects of wetland restoration: a differentiated view.

    PubMed

    Staes, J; Rubarenzya, M H; Meire, P; Willems, P

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents findings of a conjunctive hydrological and ecological study into habitat restoration and catchment hydrology. Physically-based, fully distributed hydrological modelling was coupled with spatial analysis and wetland scenario generation techniques to simulate potential effects of restoring lower, middle, and upper catchment wetlands. In the past, anthropogenic interference of this catchments' landscape for agriculture and settlement has left most wetland areas drained, and brought the natural functioning of the ecosystem into conflict with human needs. Many eco-hydrology studies conclude that such disturbances result in a more extreme hydrological regime. The study objectives were to develop and study innovative methods for habitat restoration, and understand the potential hydrological impacts of each approach. The study aims to analyze the scenarios and whether the hydrological response is influenced by the topological placement of the restoration sites. Land-use change scenarios are developed on the basis of physical characteristics and consider the credibility of transitions from current land-use. This study focused on the position of the wetlands in the catchment and hydrological typology. Wetland restoration scenarios are created for different geographical settings within the catchment. A distinction is made between groundwater dependent wetlands and wetlands that are influenced by in-stream water tables or surface water inundations. Results show that there is little effect on the total annual water budget. The results point to river valley rewetting as having the effect of decreasing the paved overland component of stream flow, and increasing the saturated zone flow component. It promoted groundwater recharge. There was no increase of peak flows due to headwater wetlands, contrary to some sources (Bullock & Acreman 2003). The catchments' actual evapotranspiration and root zone water responses were found to be varied over the analysis points

  9. Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

    PubMed

    Marson, Daniel

    2016-09-01

    The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity.

  10. Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration for distributed hydrologic runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spies, R. R.; Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.

    2012-12-01

    Distributed models have the ability of incorporating spatially variable data, especially high resolution forcing inputs such as precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration in hydrologic modeling. Use of distributed hydrologic models for operational streamflow prediction has been partially hindered by a lack of readily available, spatially explicit input observations. Potential evapotranspiration (PET), for example, is currently accounted for through PET input grids that are based on monthly climatological values. The goal of this study is to assess the use of satellite-based PET estimates that represent the temporal and spatial variability, as input to the National Weather Service (NWS) Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). Daily PET grids are generated for six watersheds in the upper Mississippi River basin using a method that applies only MODIS satellite-based observations and the Priestly Taylor formula (MODIS-PET). The use of MODIS-PET grids will be tested against the use of the current climatological PET grids for simulating basin discharge. Gridded surface temperature forcing data are derived by applying the inverse distance weighting spatial prediction method to point-based station observations from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). Precipitation data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). A-priori gridded parameters for the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Snow-17 model, and routing model are initially obtained from the Office of Hydrologic Development and further calibrated using an automated approach. The potential of the MODIS-PET to be used in an operational distributed modeling system will be assessed with the long-term goal of promoting research to operations transfers and advancing the science of hydrologic forecasting.

  11. Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, S.M.; Loftus, W.F.; Gaiser, E.E.; Huffman, A.E.

    2005-01-01

    About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific concensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and

  12. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  13. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: Identification of dominant processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markstrom, Steven; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-01-01

    The Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many

  14. A Hydrological Model of the Mobile River Watershed, Southeastern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alarcon, Vladimir J.; McAnally, William; Diaz-Ramirez, Jairo; Martin, James; Cartwright, John

    2009-08-01

    A hydrological model of the Mobile Bay watershed located in the northern Gulf of Mexico, (Alabama, USA) is presented. The modeling of hydrological processes is performed using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF). The project region was divided into two sectors for simplifying the modeling task: an upland watershed (that included streams not draining directly to the Mobile Estuary), and several watersheds of selected streams that drain directly to the Mobile estuary (namely: Fish River, Magnolia River, and Chickasaw Creek). The Better Assessment Science Integrating Point & Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) GIS system was used to perform most of the geospatial operations, although ArcGis and ArcInfo were also used to complement geospatial processing that was not available in BASINS.

  15. Analysis of the Temporal Dynamics of Model Performance for Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusser, D. E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

    2008-12-01

    The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. We present a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrate its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physics-based model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.

  16. Hydrologic and water quality terminology as applied to modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A survey of literature and examination in particular of terminology use in a previous special collection of modeling calibration and validation papers has been conducted to arrive at a list of consistent terminology recommended for writing about hydrologic and water quality model calibration and val...

  17. Performance measures and criteria for hydrologic and water quality models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Performance measures and criteria are essential for model calibration and validation. This presentation will include a summary of one of the papers that will be included in the 2014 Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Calibration & Validation Guidelines Special Collection of the ASABE Transactions. T...

  18. The Use of Simulation Models in Teaching Geomorphology and Hydrology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirkby, Mike; Naden, Pam

    1988-01-01

    Learning about the physical environment from computer simulation models is discussed in terms of three stages: exploration, experimentation, and calibration. Discusses the effective use of models and presents two computer simulations written in BBC BASIC, STORFLO (for catchment hydrology) and SLOPEK (for hillslope evolution). (Author/GEA)

  19. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  20. Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2016-11-01

    parameter hydrologic model, has been applied to the conterminous US (CONUS). Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to identify: (1) the sensitive input parameters and (2) particular model output variables that could be associated with the dominant hydrologic process(es). Sensitivity values of 35 PRMS calibration parameters were computed using the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test procedure on 110 000 independent hydrologically based spatial modeling units covering the CONUS and then summarized to process (snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, interflow, baseflow, and runoff) and model performance statistic (mean, coefficient of variation, and autoregressive lag 1). Identified parameters and processes provide insight into model performance at the location of each unit and allow the modeler to identify the most dominant process on the basis of which processes are associated with the most sensitive parameters. The results of this study indicate that: (1) the choice of performance statistic and output variables has a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the apparent model complexity to the modeler can be reduced by focusing on those processes that are associated with sensitive parameters and disregarding those that are not, (3) different processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.

  1. A physically-based Distributed Hydrologic Model for Tropical Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abebe, N. A.; Ogden, F. L.

    2010-12-01

    Hydrological models are mathematical formulations intended to represent observed hydrological processes in a watershed. Simulated watersheds in turn vary in their nature based on their geographic location, altitude, climatic variables and geology and soil formation. Due to these variations, available hydrologic models vary in process formulation, spatial and temporal resolution and data demand. Many tropical watersheds are characterized by extensive and persistent biological activity and a large amount of rain. The Agua Salud catchments located within the Panama Canal Watershed, Panama, are such catchments identified by steep rolling topography, deep soils derived from weathered bedrock, and limited exposed bedrock. Tropical soils are highly affected by soil cracks, decayed tree roots and earthworm burrows forming a network of preferential flow paths that drain to a perched water table, which forms at a depth where the vertical hydraulic conductivity is significantly reduced near the bottom of the bioturbation layer. We have developed a physics-based, spatially distributed, multi-layered hydrologic model to simulate the dominant processes in these tropical watersheds. The model incorporates the major flow processes including overland flow, channel flow, matrix and non-Richards film flow infiltration, lateral downslope saturated matrix and non-Darcian pipe flow in the bioturbation layer, and deep saturated groundwater flow. Emphasis is given to the modeling of subsurface unsaturated zone soil moisture dynamics and the saturated preferential lateral flow from the network of macrospores. Preliminary results indicate that the model has the capability to simulate the complex hydrological processes in the catchment and will be a useful tool in the ongoing comprehensive ecohydrological studies in tropical catchments, and help improve our understanding of the hydrological effects of deforestation and aforestation.

  2. Evolution of an operational hydrological model: from global to semi-distributed approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Frédéric; Garçon, Rémy

    2016-04-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) for operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. In its historical version, hereafter called MORDOR1996, this is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow and ice accumulation and melt, routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 25 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In order to consider the spatial heterogeneity of the input data (rainfall and air temperature) and the hydrological characteristics within a basin, the structure of model has been updated. The new version of the model, named MORDOR SD, is a semi-distributed hydrological model driven by elevation. The basin is spitted into several elevation bands on which a simple global MORDOR model is implemented; i.e. only evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, snow and ice accumulation and melt are computed. However ground water and routing processes remain global. The primary purpose of this study is to present MORDOR SD model through a comparison with the historical version. The first result of this comparative study is that the new version provides better calibration-validation performances. Moreover the semi-distributed approach both allows to simplify the model structure (i.e. less degrees of freedom) and to reduce the equifinality problem in the calibration process. The model's parameters are calibrated at daily timestep with a genetic algorithm that uses a composed objective function. This complex function quantifies the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time

  3. Impact of Model Uncertainty Description on Assimilating Hydraulic Head into the MIKE-SHE Distributed Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, D.; Madsen, H.; Ridler, M. E.; Rasmussen, J.; Refsgaard, J.; Jensen, K.

    2013-12-01

    Catchment-scale hydrological models are used as prediction tools to solve major challenges in water resources management. The reliability of hydrological model predictions is inevitably affected by the amount of information available to set up and calibrate the model. Data assimilation (DA) which combines complementary information from measurements and models has proven to be a powerful and promising tool in numerous research studies to improve model predictions. Especially, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) which is a popular sequential data assimilation technique, has been extensively studied in the earth sciences for assimilating in-situ measurements and remote sensing data. However, one of the major challenges in data assimilation to optimally combine model and measurements is the description of model uncertainty. Only few studies have been reported for defining appropriate model uncertainty in hydrological DA. Modeling uncertainties can be conceptually different in different applications. Traditionally, model uncertainty is represented by parameter uncertainty with corresponding parameter statistics determined by inverse modeling. In most hydrological DA applications, however, model uncertainty is defined by experience using simple statistical descriptions of different uncertainty sources. In this work, both the uncertainty derived from inverse modeling and from empirical knowledge are used and analyzed. A combination of parameter-based, forcing-based and state-based model error is implemented in the EnKF framework for assimilating groundwater hydraulic heads into a catchment-scale model of the Karup Catchment in Denmark using the distributed and integrated hydrological model MIKE SHE. A series of synthetic identical twin experiments are carried out to analyze the impact of different model error assumptions on the feasibility and efficiency of the assimilation. The optimality of the EnKF underlying twin test provides possibilities to diagnose model error

  4. Conceptual model for partnership and sustainability in global health.

    PubMed

    Leffers, Jeanne; Mitchell, Emma

    2011-01-01

    Although nursing has a long history of service to the global community, the profession lacks a theoretical and empirical base for nurses to frame their global practice. A study using grounded theory methodology to investigate partnership and sustainability for global health led to the development of a conceptual model. Interviews were conducted with 13 global health nurse experts. Themes from the interviews were: components for engagement, mutual goal setting, cultural bridging, collaboration, capacity building, leadership, partnership, ownership, and sustainability. Next, the identified themes were reviewed in the literature in order to evaluate their conceptual relationships. Finally, careful comparison of the interview transcripts and the supporting literature led to the Conceptual Framework for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health Nursing. The model posits that engagement and partnership must precede any planning and intervention in order to create sustainable interventions. This conceptual framework will offer nurses important guidance for global health nursing practice.

  5. Brokering as a framework for hydrological model repeatability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuka, Daniel; Collick, Amy; MacAlister, Charlotte; Braeckel, Aaron; Wright, Dawn; Jodha Khalsa, Siri; Boldrini, Enrico; Easton, Zachary

    2015-04-01

    Data brokering aims to provide those in the the sciences with quick and repeatable access to data that represents physical, biological, and chemical characteristics; specifically to accelerate scientific discovery. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these hydrological models requires many different data, from different sources, and from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In basin scale hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, or more suitable data products will exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols, and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non native user exceedingly difficult and time consuming. We demonstrate data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering can increase the efficiency with which data are obtained, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering can significantly increase the repeatability of a given study.

  6. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  7. Assessing the hydrologic restoration of an urbanized area via an integrated distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinh, D. H.; Chui, T. F. M.

    2013-12-01

    Green structures (e.g. green roof and bio-retention systems) are adopted to mitigate the hydrological impacts of urbanization. However, our current understanding of urbanization impacts are often process-specific (e.g. peak flow or storm recession), and our characterizations of green structures are often on a local scale. This study uses an integrated distributed hydrological model, Mike SHE, to evaluate the urbanization impacts on both overall water balance and water regime, and also the effectiveness of green structures at a catchment level. Three simulations are carried out for a highly urbanized catchment in the tropics, representing pre-urbanized, urbanized and restored conditions. Urbanization transforms vegetated areas into impervious surfaces, resulting in 20 and 66% reductions in infiltration and base flow respectively, and 60 to 100% increase in peak outlet discharge. Green roofs delay the peak outlet discharge by 2 h and reduce the magnitude by 50%. Bio-retention systems mitigate the peak discharge by 50% and also enhance infiltration by 30%. The combination of green roofs and bio-retention systems even reduces the peak discharge to the pre-urbanized level. The simulation results obtained are independent of field data, enabling a generic model for understanding hydrological changes during the different phases of urbanization. This will benefit catchment-level planning of green structures in other urban areas.

  8. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened.

  9. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-20

    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m(3) per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened.

  10. Simulating the hydrologic cycle in coal mining subsidence areas with a distributed hydrologic model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianhua; Lu, Chuiyu; Sun, Qingyan; Xiao, Weihua; Cao, Guoliang; Li, Hui; Yan, Lingjia; Zhang, Bo

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale ground subsidence caused by coal mining and subsequent water-filling leads to serious environmental problems and economic losses, especially in plains with a high phreatic water level. Clarifying the hydrologic cycle in subsidence areas has important practical value for environmental remediation, and provides a scientific basis for water resource development and utilisation of the subsidence areas. Here we present a simulation approach to describe interactions between subsidence area water (SW) and several hydrologic factors from the River-Subsidence-Groundwater Model (RSGM), which is developed based on the distributed hydrologic model. Analysis of water balance shows that the recharge of SW from groundwater only accounts for a small fraction of the total water source, due to weak groundwater flow in the plain. The interaction between SW and groundwater has an obvious annual cycle. The SW basically performs as a net source of groundwater in the wet season, and a net sink for groundwater in the dry season. The results show there is an average 905.34 million m3 per year of water available through the Huainan coal mining subsidence areas (HCMSs). If these subsidence areas can be integrated into water resource planning, the increasingly precarious water supply infrastructure will be strengthened. PMID:28106048

  11. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  12. Integrating Geophysics, Geology, and Hydrology for Enhanced Hydrogeological Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Auken, E.

    2012-12-01

    Geophysical measurements are important for providing information on the geological structure to hydrological models. Regional scale surveys, where several watersheds are mapped at the same time using helicopter borne transient electromagnetic, results in a geophysical model with a very high lateral and vertical resolution of the geological layers. However, there is a bottleneck when it comes to integrating the information from the geophysical models into the hydrological model. This transformation is difficult, because there is not a simple relationship between the hydraulic conductivity needed for the hydrological model and the electrical conductivity measured by the geophysics. In 2012 the Danish Council for Strategic Research has funded a large research project focusing on the problem of integrating geophysical models into hydrological models. The project involves a number of Danish research institutions, consulting companies, a water supply company, as well as foreign partners, USGS (USA), TNO (Holland) and CSIRO (Australia). In the project we will: 1. Use statistical methods to describe the spatial correlation between the geophysical and the lithological/hydrological data; 2. Develop semi-automatic or automatic methods for transforming spatially sampled geophysical data into geological- and/or groundwater-model parameter fields; 3. Develop an inversion method for large-scale geophysical surveys in which the model space is concordant with the hydrological model space 4. Demonstrate the benefits of spatially distributed geophysical data for informing and updating groundwater models and increasing the predictive power of management scenarios. 5. Develop a new receiver system for Magnetic Resonance Sounding data and further enhance the resolution capability of data from the SkyTEM system. 6. In test areas in Denmark, Holland, USA and Australia we will use data from existing airborne geophysical data, hydrological and geological data and also collect new airborne

  13. Comparing the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) with root zone storage in a lumped conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Gao, Hongkai; Savenije, Hubert H. G.; Maekan, Ekkarin; Saengsawang, Sirikanya; Thianpopirug, Sansarith

    2016-08-01

    With remote sensing we can readily observe the Earth's surface, but direct observation of the sub-surface remains a challenge. In hydrology, but also in related disciplines such as agricultural and atmospheric sciences, knowledge of the dynamics of soil moisture in the root zone of vegetation is essential, as this part of the vadose zone is the core component controlling the partitioning of water into evaporative fluxes, drainage, recharge, and runoff. In this paper, we compared the catchment-scale soil moisture content in the root zone of vegetation, computed by a lumped conceptual model, with the remotely sensed Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) in the Upper Ping River basin (UPRB) in northern Thailand. The NDII is widely used to monitor the equivalent water thickness (EWT) of leaves and canopy. Satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to determine the NDII over an 8-day period, covering the study area from 2001 to 2013. The results show that NDII values decrease sharply at the end of the wet season in October and reach lowest values near the end of the dry season in March. The values then increase abruptly after rains have started, but vary in an insignificant manner from the middle to the late rainy season. This paper investigates if the NDII can be used as a proxy for moisture deficit and hence for the amount of moisture stored in the root zone of vegetation, which is a crucial component of hydrological models. During periods of moisture stress, the 8-day average NDII values were found to correlate well with the 8-day average soil moisture content (Su) simulated by the lumped conceptual hydrological rainfall-runoff model FLEX for eight sub-catchments in the Upper Ping basin. Even the deseasonalized Su and NDII (after subtracting the dominant seasonal signal) showed good correlation during periods of moisture stress. The results illustrate the potential of the NDII as a proxy for catchment-scale root zone

  14. Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Robinson, Bruce A; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; Gupta, Hoshin V

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.

  15. Identification of the HYPE hydrological model over the Indian subcontinent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Gustafsson, David; Arheimer, Berit

    2014-05-01

    Large-scale hydrological modelling has the potential to encompass many river basins, cross regional and international boundaries and represent a number of different geophysical and climatic zones. However the performance of this type of model is subject to several sources of uncertainty/error which may be caused by, among others, the imperfectness of driving inputs, i.e. regional and global databases. This uncertainty further leads to wrong model parameterisation and incomplete process understanding. Data assimilation aims to utilize both hydrological process knowledge (as embodied in a hydrologic model) and information that can be gained from observations; hence information from model predictions and observations is synergistically used to improve performance. This study presents a methodology, drawn on experience from modelling with the HYPE model in the Indian subcontinent (covering a modelled area of 4.9 million km2), to enhance identification of highly parameterised large-scale hydrological models. The model was set up using available large-scale datasets on topography, land use, soil, precipitation, temperature, lakes, reservoirs, crop types, irrigation, evaporation, snow and discharge. A stepwise automatic calibration is carried out to avoid, to a certain extent, errors incurring in some model processes and being compensated by introducing errors in other parts of the model. In addition, information from remote sensing data is assimilated in the model to drive identification of parameters that control the spatial distribution of potential evapotranspiration. Results show that despite the strong hydro-climatic gradient over the domain, the model can adequately describe the hydrological process in the Indian subcontinent. Overall, the median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) increased from 0.08 to 0.64 during the calibration process using 43 stations of monthly discharge series over the period 1971 to 1979. Finally, decomposition of the KGE (i.e. into terms

  16. Introduction of the 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kollet, Stefan; Maxwell, Reed; Dages, Cecile; Mouche, Emmanuel; Mugler, Claude; Paniconi, Claudio; Park, Young-Jin; Putti, Mario; Shen, Chaopeng; Stisen, Simon; Sudicky, Edward; Sulis, Mauro; Ji, Xinye

    2015-04-01

    The 2nd Phase of the Integrated Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project commenced in June 2013 with a workshop at Bonn University funded by the German Science Foundation and US National Science Foundation. Three test cases were defined and compared that are available online at www.hpsc-terrsys.de including a tilted v-catchment case; a case called superslab based on multiple slab-heterogeneities in the hydraulic conductivity along a hillslope; and the Borden site case, based on a published field experiment. The goal of this phase is to further interrogate the coupling of surface-subsurface flow implemented in various integrated hydrologic models; and to understand and quantify the impact of differences in the conceptual and technical implementations on the simulation results, which may constitute an additional source of uncertainty. The focus has been broadened considerably including e.g. saturated and unsaturated subsurface storages, saturated surface area, ponded surface storage in addition to discharge, and pressure/saturation profiles and cross-sections. Here, first results are presented and discussed demonstrating the conceptual and technical challenges in implementing essentially the same governing equations describing highly non-linear moisture redistribution processes and surface-groundwater interactions.

  17. Event-based hydrological modeling for detecting dominant hydrological process and suitable model strategy for semi-arid catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Pengnian; Li, Zhijia; Chen, Ji; Li, Qiaoling; Yao, Cheng

    2016-11-01

    To simulate the hydrological processes in semi-arid areas properly is still challenging. This study assesses the impact of different modeling strategies on simulating flood processes in semi-arid catchments. Four classic hydrological models, TOPMODEL, XINANJIANG (XAJ), SAC-SMA and TANK, were selected and applied to three semi-arid catchments in North China. Based on analysis and comparison of the simulation results of these classic models, four new flexible models were constructed and used to further investigate the suitability of various modeling strategies for semi-arid environments. Numerical experiments were also designed to examine the performances of the models. The results show that in semi-arid catchments a suitable model needs to include at least one nonlinear component to simulate the main process of surface runoff generation. If there are more than two nonlinear components in the hydrological model, they should be arranged in parallel, rather than in series. In addition, the results show that the parallel nonlinear components should be combined by multiplication rather than addition. Moreover, this study reveals that the key hydrological process over semi-arid catchments is the infiltration excess surface runoff, a non-linear component.

  18. Physical Modeling of Hydrologic Processes in South Central Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El Hassan, A.; Sharif, H.; Xie, H.; Terrance, J.; Mcclelland, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flood magnitude and recurrence modeling and analysis play an important role in water resources planning, management, and permitting. In both urban and rural situations, flood analysis is important to flood plain mapping and the development of best management practices for both environmental and engineering concerns. The majority of annual precipitation in South Texas results from extreme, large storm events, which produce flash floods (the number one cause of weather-related deaths in Texas). Surface geology such as such as Edward out crop faulting zone at Balcones escarpment has different properties than the classified soil; affect the soil parameters such as infiltration or hydraulic conductivity. This result in a very high infiltration and channel loss as a recharge component to the Edward aquifer from the surface runoff and rivers that are crossing the recharge zone, such as Nueces, San Antonio, Guadalupe and Colorado Rivers. Water quality is another issue in hydrological modeling, specifically in south central Texas. Water quality assessment is another issue on hydrological modeling in south central Texas. SWAT Soil and water assessment tool model is used for water quality assessment in San Antonio River basin since the rainfall runoff simulation is a necessity to derive the surface water quality process especially in the streams. With the advances in the Geographical information system (GIS) and instant precipitation products such as next generation radar (NEXRAD) and data acquisition for these products, the accuracy of the hydrological models has improved. Different hydrological models were used to evaluate the surface water and other hydrological cycle components in different watersheds in south central Texas through different events and their different causes and effects in these watersheds. Some of them are semi distributed and lumped models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and physically based

  19. [A new precipitation distribution hydrological model and its application].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Shengtang; Kang, Shaozhong; Liu, Yin

    2005-03-01

    In distribution hydrological models, precipitation is the key input data for analyzing and computing hydrological processes. Finding a way to produce distribution precipitation data is a hotspot in hydrological research. This paper presented the hypothesis that the distribution of precipitation on the earth surface is the result of the effects of atmosphere system and terrain. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural precipitation is a group of concentric ovals on the flat earth surface, and has a definite centre with maximum precipitation not affected by terrain. Supporting by the hypothesis, this paper established a new precipitation distribution hydrological model which could simulate the spatial distribution of precipitation, and modified the terrain effect on precipitation through Newton interpolation. The position of the precipitation centre and its precipitation amount were simulated in first time, and thus, the model could have a practical value in basin storm analysis and real-time runoff forecasting. The model was tested by the precipitation data of the Xichuan river basin in the Loess Plateau, which indicated that the model had a high precision.

  20. A Conceptual Model To Assist Educational Leaders Manage Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cochren, John R.

    This paper presents a conceptual model to help school leaders manage change effectively. The model was developed from a literature review of theory development and model construction. Specifically, the paper identifies the major components that inhibit organizational change, and synthesizes the most salient features of these components through a…

  1. A Conceptual Model of Career Development to Enhance Academic Motivation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Nancy Creighton

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop, refine, and validate a conceptual model of career development to enhance the academic motivation of community college students. To achieve this end, a straw model was built from the theoretical and empirical research literature. The model was then refined and validated through three rounds of a Delphi…

  2. A conceptual model of nontornadic supercell thunderstorms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majcen, Mario

    2009-07-01

    This study uses dual-Doppler observations of nontornadic supercells obtained by ground-based mobile Doppler radars and idealized numerical simulations in order to develop a conceptual model of a nontornadic supercell, particularly at low levels and on the submesocyclone scale. In the first part of this dissertation, five nontornadic supercell thunderstorms are analyzed using high-resolution dual-Doppler radar data obtained by a pair of mobile ground-based radars. Three out of five observed supercells had well-developed low-level rotation. The observed low-level kinematic fields of the nontornadic supercells with low-level rotation are compared to the low-level kinematic fields of tornadic supercells that have been previously documented. It is determined that the observed low-level kinematic structure of nontornadic supercells is qualitatively very similar to the low-level kinematic structure of tornadic supercells, notably two out of three observed nontornadic storms had a "bent-back" rear-flank gust front just like the tornadic supercells, and one of those also had a dual rear-flank gust front, a feature that previously has been observed only in tornadic supercells. The low-level mesocyclone in the nontornadic supercells extends to the lowest analysis level in the three cases having low-level rotation, but the low-level circulation in nontornadic mesocyclones is much weaker than in tornadic mesocyclones. Also, the divergence associated with rear-flank downdrafts is stronger in nontornadic supercells than in tornadic supercells. Vortex line analyses in the observed nontornadic storms show that the vorticity field structure is consistent with baroclinic generation of horizontal vorticity and subsequent tilting into the vertical by an updraft, as has been shown in recent observational and numerical simulation studies. In the second part of this study, a series of idealized, dry three-dimensional numerical simulations are used to gain some understanding of the

  3. A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshafei, Y.; Sivapalan, M.; Tonts, M.; Hipsey, M. R.

    2014-06-01

    It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage global freshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature of human-hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet to date, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchment systems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems - and the dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems - has remained elusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines a generic framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agricultural catchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupled system dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics, environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. The conceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a composite socioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity state variable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to a community's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one of the fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a Behavioural Response variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects land and water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. The framework makes a further contribution through the introduction of three macro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences in climate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In this way, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters, which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specific conditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensure that site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologic problems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would be applied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australian experience, are presented

  4. Reducing equifinality of hydrological models by integrating Functional Streamflow Disaggregation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüdtke, Stefan; Apel, Heiko; Nied, Manuela; Carl, Peter; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    A universal problem of the calibration of hydrological models is the equifinality of different parameter sets derived from the calibration of models against total runoff values. This is an intrinsic problem stemming from the quality of the calibration data and the simplified process representation by the model. However, discharge data contains additional information which can be extracted by signal processing methods. An analysis specifically developed for the disaggregation of runoff time series into flow components is the Functional Streamflow Disaggregation (FSD; Carl & Behrendt, 2008). This method is used in the calibration of an implementation of the hydrological model SWIM in a medium sized watershed in Thailand. FSD is applied to disaggregate the discharge time series into three flow components which are interpreted as base flow, inter-flow and surface runoff. In addition to total runoff, the model is calibrated against these three components in a modified GLUE analysis, with the aim to identify structural model deficiencies, assess the internal process representation and to tackle equifinality. We developed a model dependent (MDA) approach calibrating the model runoff components against the FSD components, and a model independent (MIA) approach comparing the FSD of the model results and the FSD of calibration data. The results indicate, that the decomposition provides valuable information for the calibration. Particularly MDA highlights and discards a number of standard GLUE behavioural models underestimating the contribution of soil water to river discharge. Both, MDA and MIA yield to a reduction of the parameter ranges by a factor up to 3 in comparison to standard GLUE. Based on these results, we conclude that the developed calibration approach is able to reduce the equifinality of hydrological model parameterizations. The effect on the uncertainty of the model predictions is strongest by applying MDA and shows only minor reductions for MIA. Besides

  5. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  6. Sharing hydrological knowledge: an international comparison of hydrological models in the Meuse River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Drogue, Gilles; Brauer, Claudia; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-04-01

    International collaboration between institutes and universities working and studying the same transboundary basin is needed for consensus building around possible effects of climate change and climate adaptation measures. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration and analysis techniques. Intercomparison could be a first step into consensus modeling or an ensemble based modeling strategy. Besides these practical objectives, such an intercomparison offers the opportunity to explore different ranges of models and learn from each other, hopefully increasing the insight into the hydrological processes that play a role in the transboundary basin. In this experiment, different international research groups applied their rainfall-runoff model in the Ourthe, a Belgium sub-catchment of the Meuse. Data preparation involved the interpolation of hourly precipitation station data collected and owned by the Service Public de Wallonie1 and the freely available E-OBS dataset for daily temperature (Haylock et al., 2008). Daily temperature was disaggregated to hourly values and potential evaporation was derived with the Hargreaves formula. The data was made available to the researchers through an FTP server. The protocol for the modeling involved a split-sample calibration and validation for pre-defined periods. Objective functions for calibration were fixed but the calibration algorithm was a free choice of the research groups. The selection of calibration algorithm was considered model dependent because lumped as well as computationally less efficient distributed models were used. For each model, an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected and several performance metrics enabled to assess the models' abilities to simulate discharge. The aim of this experiment is to identify those model components and structures that increase model performance and may best

  7. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  8. Hydrologic and water quality models: Performance measures and evaluation criteria

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Performance measures and corresponding criteria constitute an important aspect of calibration and validation of any hydrological and water quality (H/WQ) model. As new and improved methods and information are developed, it is essential that performance measures and criteria be updated. Therefore, th...

  9. Green roof hydrologic performance and modeling: a review.

    PubMed

    Li, Yanling; Babcock, Roger W

    2014-01-01

    Green roofs reduce runoff from impervious surfaces in urban development. This paper reviews the technical literature on green roof hydrology. Laboratory experiments and field measurements have shown that green roofs can reduce stormwater runoff volume by 30 to 86%, reduce peak flow rate by 22 to 93% and delay the peak flow by 0 to 30 min and thereby decrease pollution, flooding and erosion during precipitation events. However, the effectiveness can vary substantially due to design characteristics making performance predictions difficult. Evaluation of the most recently published study findings indicates that the major factors affecting green roof hydrology are precipitation volume, precipitation dynamics, antecedent conditions, growth medium, plant species, and roof slope. This paper also evaluates the computer models commonly used to simulate hydrologic processes for green roofs, including stormwater management model, soil water atmosphere and plant, SWMS-2D, HYDRUS, and other models that are shown to be effective for predicting precipitation response and economic benefits. The review findings indicate that green roofs are effective for reduction of runoff volume and peak flow, and delay of peak flow, however, no tool or model is available to predict expected performance for any given anticipated system based on design parameters that directly affect green roof hydrology.

  10. Hydrologic and water quality models: Use, calibration, and validation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This paper introduces a special collection of 22 research articles that present and discuss calibration and validation concepts in detail for hydrologic and water quality models by their developers and presents a broad framework for developing the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engi...

  11. Hydrologic and water quality modeling: spatial and temporal considerations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hydrologic and water quality models are used to help manage water resources by investigating the effects of climate, land use, land management, and water management on water resources. Each water-related issue is better investigated at a specific scale, which can vary spatially from point to watersh...

  12. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement System

    EPA Science Inventory

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has be...

  13. Evaluating hydrological model performance using information theory-based metrics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The accuracy-based model performance metrics not necessarily reflect the qualitative correspondence between simulated and measured streamflow time series. The objective of this work was to use the information theory-based metrics to see whether they can be used as complementary tool for hydrologic m...

  14. Information and complexity measures for hydrologic model evaluation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hydrological models are commonly evaluated through the residual-based performance measures such as the root-mean square error or efficiency criteria. Such measures, however, do not evaluate the degree of similarity of patterns in simulated and measured time series. The objective of this study was to...

  15. Hydrological modeling using a multi-site stochastic weather generator

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Weather data is usually required at several locations over a large watershed, especially when using distributed models for hydrological simulations. In many applications, spatially correlated weather data can be provided by a multi-site stochastic weather generator which considers the spatial correl...

  16. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, G.W., II

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs.

  17. The definition of hydrologic model parameters using remote sensing techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragan, R. M.; Salomonson, V. V.

    1978-01-01

    The reported investigation is concerned with the use of Landsat remote sensing to define input parameters for an array of hydrologic models which are used to synthesize streamflow and water quality parameters in the planning or management process. The ground truth sampling and problems involved in translating the remotely sensed information into hydrologic model parameters are discussed. Questions related to the modification of existing models for compatibility with remote sensing capabilities are also examined. It is shown that the input parameters of many models are presently overdefined in terms of the sensitivity and accuracy of the model. When this overdefinition is recognized many of the models currently considered to be incompatible with remote sensing capabilities can be modified to make possible use with sensors having rather low resolutions.

  18. Conceptual adsorption models and open issues pertaining to performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Serne, R.J.

    1991-10-01

    Recently several articles have been published that question the appropriateness of the distribution coefficient, Rd, concept to quantify radionuclide migration. Several distinct issues are raised by various critics. In this paper I provide some perspective on issues surrounding the modeling of nuclide retardation. The first section defines adsorption terminology and discusses various adsorption processes. The next section describes five commonly used adsorption conceptual models, specifically emphasizing what attributes that affect adsorption are explicitly accommodated in each model. I also review efforts to incorporate each adsorption model into performance assessment transport computer codes. The five adsorption conceptual models are (1) the constant Rd model, (2) the parametric Rd model, (3) isotherm adsorption models, (4) mass-action adsorption models, and (5) surface-complexation with electrostatics models. The final section discusses the adequacy of the distribution ratio concept, the adequacy of transport calculations that rely on constant retardation factors and the status of incorporating sophisticated adsorption models into transport codes.

  19. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Catchment Hydrology: A Modified Model Analyses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evenson, G.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.

    2014-12-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), typically defined as depressional wetlands surrounded by uplands, support an array of hydrological and ecological processes. However, key research questions concerning the hydrological connectivity of GIWs and their impacts on downgradient surface waters remain unanswered. This is particularly important for regulation and management of these systems. For example, in the past decade United States Supreme Court decisions suggest that GIWs can be afforded protection if significant connectivity exists between these waters and traditional navigable waters. Here we developed a simulation procedure to quantify the effects of various spatial distributions of GIWs across the landscape on the downgradient hydrograph using a refined version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a catchment-scale hydrological simulation model. We modified the SWAT FORTRAN source code and employed an alternative hydrologic response unit (HRU) definition to facilitate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes and connectivity relationships to other surface waters, and to quantify their downgradient hydrological effects. We applied the modified SWAT model to an ~ 202 km2 catchment in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, exhibiting a substantial population of mapped GIWs. Results from our series of GIW distribution scenarios suggest that: (1) Our representation of GIWs within SWAT conforms to field-based characterizations of regional GIWs in most respects; (2) GIWs exhibit substantial seasonally-dependent effects upon downgradient base flow; (3) GIWs mitigate peak flows, particularly following high rainfall events; and (4) The presence of GIWs on the landscape impacts the catchment water balance (e.g., by increasing groundwater outflows). Our outcomes support the hypothesis that GIWs have an important catchment-scale effect on downgradient streamflow.

  20. Geologic Conceptual Model of Mosul Dam

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    options in the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) • MODFLOW modeling • ERDC Hydrogeologic Flow Model for Mosul Dam Most of the workshop time was...L., T. J. Budge, A. M. Lemon, and A. K. Zundel. 2002. Generating MODFLOW grids from boundary representation solid models. Ground Water 40(2):194-200...Modeling System (GMS) • MODFLOW Modeling • ERDC Hydrogeologic Flow Model for Mosul Dam ERDC TR-07-6 31 Trainees To fully benefit from the

  1. Conceptual model for transferring information between small watersheds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cleaves, E.T.

    2003-01-01

    Stream and watershed management and restoration can be greatly facilitated through use of physiographic landform classification to organize and communicate natural resource, hazard, and environmental information at a broad scale (1:250,000) as illustrated by the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Provinces in Maryland, or at a small scale (1:24,000) as illustrated using divisions and zones combined with a conceptual model. The conceptual model brings together geology, surficial processes, landforms and land use change information at the small watershed scale and facilitates transfer of information from one small watershed to another with similar geology and landforms. Stream flow, sediment erosion, and water quality illustrate the use of the model.

  2. Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Kling, Harald; Yilmaz, Koray K.; Martinez-Baquero, Guillermo F.

    2009-01-01

    The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

  3. Spatial transferability of landscape-based hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    Landscapes, mainly distinguished by land surface topography and vegetation cover, are crucial in defining runoff generation mechanisms, interception capacity and transpiration processes. Landscapes information provides modelers with a way to take into account catchment heterogeneity, while simultaneously keeping model complexity low. A landscape-based hydrological modelling framework (FLEX-Topo), with parallel model structures, was developed and tested in various catchments with diverse climate, topography and land cover conditions. Landscape classification is the basic and most crucial procedure to create a tailor-made model for a certain catchment, as it explicitly relates hydrologic similarity to landscape similarity, which is the base of this type of models. Therefore, the study catchment is classified into different landscapes units that fulfil similar hydrological function, based on classification criteria such as the height above the nearest drainage, slope, aspect and land cover. At present, to suggested model includes four distinguishable landscapes: hillslopes, terraces/plateaus, riparian areas, and glacierized areas. Different parallel model structures are then associated with the different landscape units to describe their different dominant runoff generation mechanisms. These hydrological units are parallel and only connected by groundwater reservoir. The transferability of this landscape-based model can then be compared with the transferability of a lumped model. In this study, FLEX-Topo was developed and tested in three study sites: two cold-arid catchments in China (the upper Heihe River and the Urumqi Glacier No1 catchment), and one tropical catchment in Thailand (the upper Ping River). Stringent model tests indicate that FLEX-Topo, allowing for more process heterogeneity than lumped model formulations, exhibits higher capabilities to be spatially transferred. Furthermore, the simulated water balances, including internal fluxes, hydrograph

  4. Identification of possible structural error in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, S. K.; Bárdossy, A.; McMillan, H.

    2012-04-01

    Hydrological Models are simplifications and theoretical approximations of complex natural phenomena. Hence, they cannot predict perfectly what happen in natural systems. There are several reasons; some of the main reasons are error in the input data, imperfect model structure, insufficient information for parameter identification etc. The identification of structural error in a complex model is very difficult task. This is especially difficult as the final differences between observation and model results are a combined consequence of the above reasons. In this study we aimed to develop a tool to identify possible model structural error in hydrological model by using the concept of the data depth function. The model was calibrated using the ROPE (Bárdossy and Singh 2008) algorithm and the optimal parameter space was obtained. From N optimal parameter sets N discharge series were obtained and boundary of the convex hull from d-dimensional dataset corresponding N discharge series (DB) is taken for further analysis. A d-dimensional dataset corresponding to the observed discharge (DX) is taken and depth of the each elements of observed discharge is calculated with respect to the boundary of the convex hull from N model discharge series. If there are elements in DX whose depths are zero with respect to the convex hull (DB), then those corresponding to d-days trajectories of the observation for which there is no similarity in any of the model parameterization. These elements can give possible indication for model structure errors. The methodology was demonstrated on two models HYMOD and TopNet in Pelorous catchment of New Zealand. Bárdossy, A. and S. K. Singh (2008). "Robust estimation of hydrological model parameters." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12: 1273-1283.

  5. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  6. Supporting user-defined granularities in a spatiotemporal conceptual model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Khatri, V.; Ram, S.; Snodgrass, R.T.; O'Brien, G. M.

    2002-01-01

    Granularities are integral to spatial and temporal data. A large number of applications require storage of facts along with their temporal and spatial context, which needs to be expressed in terms of appropriate granularities. For many real-world applications, a single granularity in the database is insufficient. In order to support any type of spatial or temporal reasoning, the semantics related to granularities needs to be embedded in the database. Specifying granularities related to facts is an important part of conceptual database design because under-specifying the granularity can restrict an application, affect the relative ordering of events and impact the topological relationships. Closely related to granularities is indeterminacy, i.e., an occurrence time or location associated with a fact that is not known exactly. In this paper, we present an ontology for spatial granularities that is a natural analog of temporal granularities. We propose an upward-compatible, annotation-based spatiotemporal conceptual model that can comprehensively capture the semantics related to spatial and temporal granularities, and indeterminacy without requiring new spatiotemporal constructs. We specify the formal semantics of this spatiotemporal conceptual model via translation to a conventional conceptual model. To underscore the practical focus of our approach, we describe an on-going case study. We apply our approach to a hydrogeologic application at the United States Geologic Survey and demonstrate that our proposed granularity-based spatiotemporal conceptual model is straightforward to use and is comprehensive.

  7. The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model - The next generation in fully integrated hydrologic simulation software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. MF-OWHM fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by agriculture and natural vegetation on the landscape, and for potable and other uses within a supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 combined with Local Grid Refinement, Streamflow Routing, Surface-water Routing Process, Seawater Intrusion, Riparian Evapotranspiration, and the Newton-Raphson solver. MF-OWHM also includes linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows; additional observation and parameter options for higher-order calibrations; and redesigned code for facilitation of self-updating models and faster simulation run times. The next version of MF-OWHM, currently under development, will include a new surface-water operations module that simulates dynamic reservoir operations, the conduit flow process for karst aquifers and leaky pipe networks, a new subsidence and aquifer compaction package, and additional features and enhancements to enable more integration and cross communication between traditional MODFLOW packages. By retaining and tracking the water within the hydrosphere, MF-OWHM accounts for "all of the water everywhere and all of the time." This philosophy provides more confidence in the water accounting by the scientific community and provides the public a foundation needed to address wider classes of problems such as evaluation of conjunctive-use alternatives and sustainability analysis, including potential adaptation and mitigation strategies, and best management practices. By Scott E. Boyce and Randall T. Hanson

  8. Comparison of a Neural Network and a Conceptual Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling with Monthly Input

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chochlidakis, Chronis; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2014-05-01

    Rainfall-runoff (RR) models contain parameters that can seldom be directly measured or estimated by expert judgment, but are rather inferred by calibration against a historical record of input-output datasets. Here, a comparison is made between a conceptual model and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for efficient modeling of complex hydrological processes. The monthly rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration data from 15 catchments in Crete, Greece are used to compare the proposed methodologies. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are applied for the stochastic calibration of the parameters in the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model yielding R2 values between 0.65 and 0.90. A Feedforward NN (FNN) is trained using a time delay approach, optimized through trial and error for each catchment, yielding R2 values between 0.70 and 0.91. The results obtained show that the ANN models can be superior to the conventional conceptual models due to their ability to handle the non-linearity and dynamic nature of the natural physical processes in a more efficient manner. On the other hand, SAC-SMA depicts high flows with greater accuracy and results suggest that conceptual models can be more robust in extrapolating beyond historical record limits.

  9. Revisiting "Discrepancy Analysis in Continuing Medical Education: A Conceptual Model"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Robert D.

    2011-01-01

    Based upon a review and analysis of selected literature, the author presents a conceptual model of discrepancy analysis evaluation for planning, implementing, and assessing the impact of continuing medical education (CME). The model is described in terms of its value as a means of diagnosing errors in the development and implementation of CME. The…

  10. A Conceptual Model for Episodes of Acute, Unscheduled Care.

    PubMed

    Pines, Jesse M; Lotrecchiano, Gaetano R; Zocchi, Mark S; Lazar, Danielle; Leedekerken, Jacob B; Margolis, Gregg S; Carr, Brendan G

    2016-10-01

    We engaged in a 1-year process to develop a conceptual model representing an episode of acute, unscheduled care. Acute, unscheduled care includes acute illnesses (eg, nausea and vomiting), injuries, or exacerbations of chronic conditions (eg, worsening dyspnea in congestive heart failure) and is delivered in emergency departments, urgent care centers, and physicians' offices, as well as through telemedicine. We began with a literature search to define an acute episode of care and to identify existing conceptual models used in health care. In accordance with this information, we then drafted a preliminary conceptual model and collected stakeholder feedback, using online focus groups and concept mapping. Two technical expert panels reviewed the draft model, examined the stakeholder feedback, and discussed ways the model could be improved. After integrating the experts' comments, we solicited public comment on the model and made final revisions. The final conceptual model includes social and individual determinants of health that influence the incidence of acute illness and injury, factors that affect care-seeking decisions, specific delivery settings where acute care is provided, and outcomes and costs associated with the acute care system. We end with recommendations for how researchers, policymakers, payers, patients, and providers can use the model to identify and prioritize ways to improve acute care delivery.

  11. Conceptual model for assessment of inhalation exposure: defining modifying factors.

    PubMed

    Tielemans, Erik; Schneider, Thomas; Goede, Henk; Tischer, Martin; Warren, Nick; Kromhout, Hans; Van Tongeren, Martie; Van Hemmen, Joop; Cherrie, John W

    2008-10-01

    The present paper proposes a source-receptor model to schematically describe inhalation exposure to help understand the complex processes leading to inhalation of hazardous substances. The model considers a stepwise transfer of a contaminant from the source to the receptor. The conceptual model is constructed using three components, i.e. (i) the source, (ii) various transmission compartments and (iii) the receptor, and describes the contaminant's emission and its pattern of transport. Based on this conceptual model, a list of nine mutually independent principal modifying factors (MFs) is proposed: activity emission potential, substance emission potential, localized control, separation, segregation, dilution, worker behavior, surface contamination and respiratory protection. These MFs describe the exposure process at a high level of abstraction so that the model can be generically applicable. A list of exposure determinants underlying each of these principal MFs is proposed to describe the exposure process at a more detailed level. The presented conceptual model is developed in conjunction with an activity taxonomy as described in a separate paper. The proposed conceptual model and MFs should be seen as 'building blocks' for development of higher tier exposure models.

  12. Socio-Hydrologic Modeling: Characterizing the Dynamics of Coupled Human-Water Systems Using Natural Science Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivapalan, M.; Elshafei, Y.; Srinivasan, V.

    2014-12-01

    A challenging research puzzle in the research on sustainable water management in the Anthropocene is why some societies successfully recover from "ecological destruction" to transition to "successful adaptation" over decadal timescales, while others fail. We present a conceptual modeling framework to understand and characterize these transitions. In this way, we aim to capture the potential drivers of the desired shift towards achieving sustainability of socio-hydrological systems. This is done through a synthesis of detailed socio-hydrological analyses of four river basins in three continents, carried out using different quantitative socio-hydrologic models: Murrumbidgee River Basin in eastern Australia, Lake Toolibin Catchment in Western Australia, Tarim River Basin in Western China and Kissimmee River Basin, in south-east United States. The case studies are analysed using either place-based models designed specifically to mimic observed long-term socio-hydrologic trends, or generic conceptual models with foundations in diverse strands of literature including sustainability science and resilience theory. A comparative analysis of the four case studies reveals a commonality in the building blocks employed to model these socio-hydrologic systems; including water balance, economic, environmental and human-feedback components. Each model reveals varying interpretations of a common organising principle that could explain the shift between productive (socio-economic) and restorative (environmental) forces that was evident in each of these systems observed over a long time frame. The emergent principle is related to the essential drivers of the human feedback component and rests with a general formulation of human well-being, as reflected by both their economic and environmental well-being. It is envisaged that the understanding of the system drivers gained from such a comparative study would enable more targeted water management strategies that can be administered in

  13. Improvement of hydrological model calibration by selecting multiple parameter ranges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Qiaofeng; Liu, Shuguang; Cai, Yi; Li, Xinjian; Jiang, Yangming

    2017-01-01

    The parameters of hydrological models are usually calibrated to achieve good performance, owing to the highly non-linear problem of hydrology process modelling. However, parameter calibration efficiency has a direct relation with parameter range. Furthermore, parameter range selection is affected by probability distribution of parameter values, parameter sensitivity, and correlation. A newly proposed method is employed to determine the optimal combination of multi-parameter ranges for improving the calibration of hydrological models. At first, the probability distribution was specified for each parameter of the model based on genetic algorithm (GA) calibration. Then, several ranges were selected for each parameter according to the corresponding probability distribution, and subsequently the optimal range was determined by comparing the model results calibrated with the different selected ranges. Next, parameter correlation and sensibility were evaluated by quantifying two indexes, RC Y, X and SE, which can be used to coordinate with the negatively correlated parameters to specify the optimal combination of ranges of all parameters for calibrating models. It is shown from the investigation that the probability distribution of calibrated values of any particular parameter in a Xinanjiang model approaches a normal or exponential distribution. The multi-parameter optimal range selection method is superior to the single-parameter one for calibrating hydrological models with multiple parameters. The combination of optimal ranges of all parameters is not the optimum inasmuch as some parameters have negative effects on other parameters. The application of the proposed methodology gives rise to an increase of 0.01 in minimum Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) compared with that of the pure GA method. The rising of minimum ENS with little change of the maximum may shrink the range of the possible solutions, which can effectively reduce uncertainty of the model performance.

  14. Is there a need for hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies.

    PubMed

    Raskob, W; Heling, R; Zheleznyak, M

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the role of hydrological modelling in decision support systems for nuclear emergencies. In particular, most recent developments such as, the radionuclide transport models integrated in to the decision support system RODOS will be explored. Recent progress in the implementation of physically-based distributed hydrological models for operational forecasting in national and supranational centres, may support a closer cooperation between national hydrological services and therefore, strengthen the use of hydrological and radiological models implemented in decision support systems.

  15. Modelling of hydrologic processes in a small natural hillslope basin, based on the synthesis of partial hydrological relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, Yosihisa; Musiake, Katumi; Takahasi, Yutaka

    1983-07-01

    The authors have equipped a natural small experimental basin, with a catchment area of 4.4 ha, in the Tama Hills in the western suburbs of Tokyo, Japan. It has not only precipitation and streamflow gauging but also soil moisture measuring instruments and groundwater observation wells. At first, based upon the observed data, the partial hydrologic processes such as direct runoff, rainfall-loss, groundwater runoff, groundwater recharge, and evapotranspiration are analyzed. Then a daily hydrological model and an hourly hydrological model are constructed by synthesizing the results of the above analysis, and their applicability is examined.

  16. Modeling of thermally driven hydrological processes in partially saturated fractured rock

    SciTech Connect

    Tsang, Yvonne; Birkholzer, Jens; Mukhopadhyay, Sumit

    2009-03-15

    This paper is a review of the research that led to an in-depth understanding of flow and transport processes under strong heat stimulation in fractured, porous rock. It first describes the anticipated multiple processes that come into play in a partially saturated, fractured porous volcanic tuff geological formation, when it is subject to a heat source such as that originating from the decay of radionuclides. The rationale is then given for numerical modeling being a key element in the study of multiple processes that are coupled. The paper outlines how the conceptualization and the numerical modeling of the problem evolved, progressing from the simplified to the more realistic. Examples of numerical models are presented so as to illustrate the advancement and maturation of the research over the last two decades. The most recent model applied to in situ field thermal tests is characterized by (1) incorporation of a full set of thermal-hydrological processes into a numerical simulator, (2) realistic representation of the field test geometry, in three dimensions, and (3) use of site-specific characterization data for model inputs. Model predictions were carried out prior to initiation of data collection, and the model results were compared to diverse sets of measurements. The approach of close integration between modeling and field measurements has yielded a better understanding of how coupled thermal hydrological processes produce redistribution of moisture within the rock, which affects local permeability values and subsequently the flow of liquid and gases. The fluid flow in turn will change the temperature field. We end with a note on future research opportunities, specifically those incorporating chemical, mechanical, and microbiological factors into the study of thermal and hydrological processes.

  17. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes for Hydrologic Modeling and Water Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaning...

  18. On the Usefulness of Hydrologic Landscapes on Hydrologic Model calibration and Selection

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrologic Landscapes (HLs) are units that can be used in aggregate to describe the watershed-scale hydrologic response of an area through use of physical and climatic properties. The HL assessment unit is a useful classification tool to relate and transfer hydrologically meaning...

  19. From models to performance assessment: the conceptualization problem.

    PubMed

    Bredehoeft, John D

    2003-01-01

    Today, models are ubiquitous tools for ground water analyses. The intent of this paper is to explore philosophically the role of the conceptual model in analysis. Selection of the appropriate conceptual model is an a priori decision by the analyst. Calibration is an integral part of the modeling process. Unfortunately a wrong or incomplete conceptual model can often be adequately calibrated; good calibration of a model does not ensure a correct conceptual model. Petroleum engineers have another term for calibration; they refer to it as history matching. A caveat to the idea of history matching is that we can make a prediction with some confidence equal to the period of the history match. In other words, if we have matched a 10-year history, we can predict for 10 years with reasonable confidence; beyond 10 years the confidence in the prediction diminishes rapidly. The same rule of thumb applies to ground water model analyses. Nuclear waste disposal poses a difficult problem because the time horizon, 1000 years or longer, is well beyond the possibility of the history match (or period of calibration) in the traditional analysis. Nonetheless, numerical models appear to be the tool of choice for analyzing the safety of waste facilities. Models have a well-recognized inherent uncertainty. Performance assessment, the technique for assessing the safety of nuclear waste facilities, involves an ensemble of cascading models. Performance assessment with its ensemble of models multiplies the inherent uncertainty of the single model. The closer we can approach the idea of a long history with which to match the models, even models of nuclear waste facilities, the more confidence we will have in the analysis (and the models, including performance assessment). This thesis argues for prolonged periods of observation (perhaps as long as 300 to 1000 years) before a nuclear waste facility is finally closed.

  20. Anticipating the Role of SWOT in Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavelsky, T.; Biancamaria, S.; Andreadis, K.; Durand, M. T.; Schumann, G.

    2015-12-01

    The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission is a joint project of NASA and CNES, the French space agency. It aims to provide the first simultaneous, space-based measurements of inundation extent and water surface elevation in rivers, lakes, and wetlands around the world. Although the orbit repeat time is approximately 21 days, many areas of the earth will be viewed multiple times during this window. SWOT will observe rivers as narrow as 50-100 m and lakes as small as 0.01-0.06 km2, with height accuracies of ~10 cm for water bodies 1 km2 in area. Because SWOT will measure temporal variations in the height, width, and slope of rivers, several algorithms have been developed to estimate river discharge solely from SWOT measurements. Additionally, measurements of lake height and area will allow estimation of variability in lake water storage. These new hydrologic measurements will provide important sources of information both hydrologic and hydrodynamic models at regional to global scales. SWOT-derived estimates of water storage change and discharge will help to constrain simulation of the water budget in hydrologic models. Measurements of water surface elevation will provide similar constraints on hydrodynamic models of river flow. SWOT data will be useful for model calibration and validation, but perhaps the most exciting applications involve assimilation of SWOT data into models to enhance model robustness and provide denser temporal sampling than available from SWOT observations alone.

  1. An event-based hydrologic simulation model for bioretention systems.

    PubMed

    Roy-Poirier, A; Filion, Y; Champagne, P

    2015-01-01

    Bioretention systems are designed to treat stormwater and provide attenuated drainage between storms. Bioretention has shown great potential at reducing the volume and improving the quality of stormwater. This study introduces the bioretention hydrologic model (BHM), a one-dimensional model that simulates the hydrologic response of a bioretention system over the duration of a storm event. BHM is based on the RECARGA model, but has been adapted for improved accuracy and integration of pollutant transport models. BHM contains four completely-mixed layers and accounts for evapotranspiration, overflow, exfiltration to native soils and underdrain discharge. Model results were evaluated against field data collected over 10 storm events. Simulated flows were particularly sensitive to antecedent water content and drainage parameters of bioretention soils, which were calibrated through an optimisation algorithm. Temporal disparity was observed between simulated and measured flows, which was attributed to preferential flow paths formed within the soil matrix of the field system. Modelling results suggest that soil water storage is the most important short-term hydrologic process in bioretention, with exfiltration having the potential to be significant in native soils with sufficient permeability.

  2. Hydrological Modelling of The Guadiana Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conan, C.; Bouraoui, F.; de Marsily, G.; Bidoglio, G.

    Increased anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, irrigation, industry, mining, ur- ban water supply and sewage treatment, have created significant environmental prob- lems. To ensure sustainable development of water resources, water managers need new strategies and suitable tools. In particular it is often compulsory that surface wa- ter and groundwater be managed simultaneously both in terms of quantity and quality at catchment scales. To this purpose, a model coupling SWAT (Soil and Water As- sessment Tool) and MODFLOW (Modular 3-D Flow model) was developed. SWAT is a quasi-distributed watershed model with a GIS interface that outlines the sub-basins and stream networks from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and calculates daily wa- ter balances from meteorological data, soil and land-use characteristics. The particular advantage of this model, compared to other fully distributed physically based mod- els, is that it requires a small amount of readily available input data. MODFLOW is a fully distributed model that calculates groundwater flow from aquifer characteris- tics. We have adapted this new coupled model SWAT-MODFLOW to a Mediterranean catchment, the Guadiana basin, and present the first results of this work. Only wa- ter quantity results are available at this stage. The validation consisted in comparing measured and predicted daily flow at the catchment and sub-catchment outlets for the period 1970-1995. The model accurately reproduced the decrease of the piezometric level, due to increased water abstraction, and the exchanges between surface water and ground-water. The sensitivity of the model to irrigation practices was evaluated. The usefulness of this model as a management tool has been illustrated through the analysis of alternative scenarios of agricultural practices and climate change.

  3. Physically-based distributed hydrologic modeling of tropical catchments: Hypothesis testing on model formation and runoff generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abebe, N. A.; Ogden, F. L.

    2011-12-01

    Watersheds vary in their nature based on their geographic location, altitude, climate, geology, soils, and land use/land cover. These variations lead to differences in the conceptualization and formulation of hydrological models intended to represent the expected hydrological processes in a given catchment. Watersheds in the tropics are characterized by intensive and persistent biological activity and a large amount of rainfall. Our study focuses on the Agua Salud project catchments located in the Panama Canal Watershed, Panama, which have steep rolling topography, deep soils derived from weathered bedrock, and limited exposed bedrock. These catchments are also highly affected by soil cracks, decayed tree roots and animal burrows that form a network of preferential flow paths. One hypothesis is that these macropores conduct interflow during heavy rainfall, when a transient perched water table forms at a depth where the vertical hydraulic conductivity is significantly reduced near the bottom of the bioturbation layer. We have developed a physics-based, spatially distributed, multi-layered hydrologic model to simulate the dominant flow processes, including overland flow, channel flow, vertical matrix and non-Richards film flow, lateral downslope saturated matrix and non-Darcian pipe flow in the bioturbation layer and deep saturated groundwater flow. In our model formulation, we use the model to examine a variety of hydrological processes which we anticipate may occur. Emphasis is given to the modeling of the soil moisture dynamics in the bioturbation layer, development of lateral preferential flow and activation of the macropores and exchange of water at the interface between a bioturbation layer and a second layer below it. We consider interactions between surface water, ground water, channel water and perched water in the riparian zone cells with the aim of understanding likely runoff generation mechanisms. Results show that inclusion of as many different flow

  4. Conceptual model for regional radionuclide transport from a salt dome repository: a technical memorandum

    SciTech Connect

    Kier, R.S.; Showalter, P.A.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1980-05-30

    Disposal of high-level radioactive wastes is a major environmental problem influencing further development of nuclear energy in this country. Salt domes in the Gulf Coast Basin are being investigated as repository sites. A major concern is geologic and hydrologic stability of candidate domes and potential transport of radionuclides by groundwater to the biosphere prior to their degradation to harmless levels of activity. This report conceptualizes a regional geohydrologic model for transport of radionuclides from a salt dome repository. The model considers transport pathways and the physical and chemical changes that would occur through time prior to the radionuclides reaching the biosphere. Necessary, but unknown inputs to the regional model involve entry and movement of fluids through the repository dome and across the dome-country rock interface and the effect on the dome and surrounding strata of heat generated by the radioactive wastes.

  5. The application of remote sensing to the development and formulation of hydrologic planning models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fowler, T. R.; Castruccio, P. A.; Loats, H. L., Jr.

    1977-01-01

    The development of a remote sensing model and its efficiency in determining parameters of hydrologic models are reviewed. Procedures for extracting hydrologic data from LANDSAT imagery, and the visual analysis of composite imagery are presented. A hydrologic planning model is developed and applied to determine seasonal variations in watershed conditions. The transfer of this technology to a user community and contract arrangements are discussed.

  6. Flash flood warning based on fully dynamic hydrology modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Nickovic, Slobodan

    2016-04-01

    Numerical hydrologic modeling has achieved limited success in the past due to, inter alia, lack of adequate input data. Over the last decade, data availability has improved substantially. For modelling purposes, high-resolution data on topography, river routing, and land cover and soil features have meanwhile become available, as well as the observations such as radar precipitation information. In our study, we have implemented the HYPROM model (Hydrology Prognostic Model) to predict a flash flood event at a smaller-scale basin in Southern Serbia. HYPROM is based on the full set of governing equations for surface hydrological dynamics, in which momentum components, along with the equation of mass continuity, are used as full prognostic equations. HYPROM also includes a river routing module serving as a collector for the extra surface water. Such approach permits appropriate representation of different hydrology scales ranging from flash floods to flows of large and slow river basins. The use of full governing equations, if not appropriately parameterized, may lead to numerical instability systems when the surface water in a model is vanishing. To resolve these modelling problems, an unconditionally stable numerical scheme and a method for height redistribution avoiding shortwave height noise have been developed in HYPROM, which achieve numerical convergence of u, v and h when surface water disappears. We have applied HYPROM, driven by radar-estimated precipitation, to predict flash flooding occurred over smaller and medium-size river basins. Two torrential rainfall cases have been simulated to check the accuracy of the model: the exceptional flooding of May 2014 in Western Serbia, and the convective flash flood of January 2015 in Southern Serbia. The second episode has been successfully predicted by HYPROM in terms of timing and intensity six hours before the event occurred. Such flash flood warning system is in preparation to be operationally implemented in the

  7. Integrating 3D geological information with a national physically-based hydrological modelling system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Parkin, Geoff; Kessler, Holger; Whiteman, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Robust numerical models are an essential tool for informing flood and water management and policy around the world. Physically-based hydrological models have traditionally not been used for such applications due to prohibitively large data, time and computational resource requirements. Given recent advances in computing power and data availability, a robust, physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain using the SHETRAN model and national datasets has been created. Such a model has several advantages over less complex systems. Firstly, compared with conceptual models, a national physically-based model is more readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. Secondly, the results of a physically-based system may be more robust under changing conditions such as climate and land cover, as physical processes and relationships are explicitly accounted for. Finally, a fully integrated surface and subsurface model such as SHETRAN offers a wider range of applications compared with simpler schemes, such as assessments of groundwater resources, sediment and nutrient transport and flooding from multiple sources. As such, SHETRAN provides a robust means of simulating numerous terrestrial system processes which will add physical realism when coupled to the JULES land surface model. 306 catchments spanning Great Britain have been modelled using this system. The standard configuration of this system performs satisfactorily (NSE > 0.5) for 72% of catchments and well (NSE > 0.7) for 48%. Many of the remaining 28% of catchments that performed relatively poorly (NSE < 0.5) are located in the chalk in the south east of England. As such, the British Geological Survey 3D geology model for Great Britain (GB3D) has been incorporated, for the first time in any hydrological model, to pave the way for improvements to be made to simulations of catchments with important groundwater regimes. This coupling has involved

  8. The School Media Center: A Conceptual Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodson, Yvonne D.

    1979-01-01

    Describes a model for a school media center which will serve as a strategic learning facility. The model is based upon research in both media and education dealing with behavioristic psychology, personality theory, cognitive psychology, and theories of learning as information processing. (Author/FM)

  9. Problem Solving, Modeling, and Local Conceptual Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lesh, Richard; Harel, Guershon

    2003-01-01

    Describes similarities and differences between modeling cycles and stages of development. Includes examples of relevant constructs underlying children's developing ways of thinking about fractions, ratios, rates, proportions, or other mathematical ideas. Concludes that modeling cycles appear to be local or situated versions of the general stages…

  10. A Conceptual Model for Leadership Transition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manderscheid, Steven V.; Ardichvili, Alexandre

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a model of leadership transition based on an integrative review of literature. The article establishes a compelling case for focusing on leadership transitions as an area for study and leadership development practitioner intervention. The proposed model in this study identifies important success factors…

  11. Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

    PubMed Central

    Dow, C F; Kulessa, B; Rutt, I C; Tsai, V C; Pimentel, S; Doyle, S H; van As, D; Lindbäck, K; Pettersson, R; Jones, G A; Hubbard, A

    2015-01-01

    The rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes injects substantial volumes of water to the bed of the Greenland ice sheet over short timescales. The effect of these water pulses on the development of basal hydrological systems is largely unknown. To address this, we develop a lake drainage model incorporating both (1) a subglacial radial flux element driven by elastic hydraulic jacking and (2) downstream drainage through a linked channelized and distributed system. Here we present the model and examine whether substantial, efficient subglacial channels can form during or following lake drainage events and their effect on the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system. We force the model with field data from a lake drainage site, 70 km from the terminus of Russell Glacier in West Greenland. The model outputs suggest that efficient subglacial channels do not readily form in the vicinity of the lake during rapid drainage and instead water is evacuated primarily by a transient turbulent sheet and the distributed system. Following lake drainage, channels grow but are not large enough to reduce the water pressure in the surrounding distributed system, unless preexisting channels are present throughout the domain. Our results have implications for the analysis of subglacial hydrological systems in regions where rapid lake drainage provides the primary mechanism for surface-to-bed connections. Key Points Model for subglacial hydrological analysis of rapid lake drainage events Limited subglacial channel growth during and following rapid lake drainage Persistence of distributed drainage in inland areas where channel growth is limited PMID:26640746

  12. Mid-Holocene Hydrologic Model of the Shingobee Watershed, Minnesota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filby, Sheryl K.; Locke, Sharon M.; Person, Mark A.; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.; Ito, Emi

    2002-11-01

    A hydrologic model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990-1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake. Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets.

  13. Which spatial discretization for which distributed hydrological model?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dehotin, J.; Braud, I.

    2007-04-01

    Distributed hydrological models are valuable tools to derive distributed estimation of water balance components or to study the impact of land-use or climate change on water resources and water quality. In these models, the choice of an appropriate spatial scale for the modelling units is a crucial issue. It is obviously linked to the available data and their scale, but not only. For a given catchment and a given data set, the "optimal" spatial discretization should be different according to the problem to be solved and the objectives of the modelling. Thus a flexible methodology is needed, especially for large catchments, to derive modelling units by performing suitable trade-off between available data, the dominant hydrological processes, their representation scale and the modelling objectives. In order to represent catchment heterogeneity efficiently according to the modelling goals, and the availability of the input data, we propose to use nested discretization, starting from a hierarchy of sub-catchments, linked by the river network topology. If consistent with the modelling objectives, the active hydrological processes and data availability, sub-catchment variability can be described using a finer nested discretization. The latter takes into account different geophysical factors such as topography, land-use, pedology, but also suitable hydrological discontinuities such as ditches, hedges, dams, etc. For small catchments, the landscape features such as agricultural fields, buildings, hedges, river reaches can be represented explicitly, as well as the water pathways between them. For larger catchments, such a representation is not feasible and simplification is necessary. For the sub-catchments discretization in these large catchments, we propose a flexible methodology based on the principles of landscape classification, using reference zones. These principles are independent from the catchment size. They allow to keep suitable features which are required in

  14. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  15. A priori discretization error metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan A.; Craig, James R.; Shafii, Mahyar

    2016-12-01

    Watershed spatial discretization is an important step in developing a distributed hydrologic model. A key difficulty in the spatial discretization process is maintaining a balance between the aggregation-induced information loss and the increase in computational burden caused by the inclusion of additional computational units. Objective identification of an appropriate discretization scheme still remains a challenge, in part because of the lack of quantitative measures for assessing discretization quality, particularly prior to simulation. This study proposes a priori discretization error metrics to quantify the information loss of any candidate discretization scheme without having to run and calibrate a hydrologic model. These error metrics are applicable to multi-variable and multi-site discretization evaluation and provide directly interpretable information to the hydrologic modeler about discretization quality. The first metric, a subbasin error metric, quantifies the routing information loss from discretization, and the second, a hydrological response unit (HRU) error metric, improves upon existing a priori metrics by quantifying the information loss due to changes in land cover or soil type property aggregation. The metrics are straightforward to understand and easy to recode. Informed by the error metrics, a two-step discretization decision-making approach is proposed with the advantage of reducing extreme errors and meeting the user-specified discretization error targets. The metrics and decision-making approach are applied to the discretization of the Grand River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Results show that information loss increases as discretization gets coarser. Moreover, results help to explain the modeling difficulties associated with smaller upstream subbasins since the worst discretization errors and highest error variability appear in smaller upstream areas instead of larger downstream drainage areas. Hydrologic modeling experiments under

  16. A Multiperspectival Conceptual Model of Transformative Meaning Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Freed, Maxine

    2009-01-01

    Meaning making is central to transformative learning, but little work has explored how meaning is constructed in the process. Moreover, no meaning-making theory adequately captures its characteristics and operations during radical transformation. The purpose of this dissertation was to formulate and specify a multiperspectival conceptual model of…

  17. Designing Public Library Websites for Teens: A Conceptual Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naughton, Robin Amanda

    2012-01-01

    The main goal of this research study was to develop a conceptual model for the design of public library websites for teens (TLWs) that would enable designers and librarians to create library websites that better suit teens' information needs and practices. It bridges a gap in the research literature between user interface design in human-computer…

  18. Childhood Adultification in Economically Disadvantaged Families: A Conceptual Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Linda

    2007-01-01

    This article presents an emergent conceptual model of childhood adultification and economic disadvantage derived from 5 longitudinal ethnographies of children and adolescents growing up in low-income families. Childhood adultification involves contextual, social, and developmental processes in which youth are prematurely, and often…

  19. A New Conceptual Model for Understanding International Students' College Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alfattal, Eyad

    2016-01-01

    This study concerns the theory and practice of international marketing in higher education with the purpose of exploring a conceptual model for understanding international students' needs in the context of a four-year college in the United States. A transcendental phenomenological design was employed to investigate the essence of international…

  20. A Conceptual Model of the World of Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    VanRooy, William H.

    The conceptual model described in this paper resulted from the need to organize a body of knowledge related to the world of work which would enable curriculum developers to prepare accurate, realistic instructional materials. The world of work is described by applying Malinowski's scientific study of the structural components of culture. It is…

  1. Developing a Conceptual Model of STEAM Teaching Practices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quigley, Cassie F.; Herro, Dani; Jamil, Faiza M.

    2017-01-01

    STEAM, where the "A" represents arts and humanities, is considered a transdisciplinary learning process that has the potential to increase diverse participation in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields. However, a well-defined conceptual model that clearly articulates essential components of the STEAM approach is…

  2. Higher Education as Student Development: A Conceptual Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Robert L.

    A sample of 462 student affairs professionals responded to a survey questionnaire designed to conceptualize a model institution of higher education committed to facilitating the development of the whole student. The respondents represented 74% of a randomly selected population sample drawn from the membership lists of ACPA, NASPA, and NAWDAC. The…

  3. Conceptualizations of Creativity: Comparing Theories and Models of Giftedness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Angie L.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews seven different theories of giftedness that include creativity as a component, comparing and contrasting how each one conceptualizes creativity as a part of giftedness. The functions of creativity vary across the models, suggesting that while the field of gifted education often cites the importance of creativity, the…

  4. EUReKA! A Conceptual Model of Emotion Understanding.

    PubMed

    Castro, Vanessa L; Cheng, Yanhua; Halberstadt, Amy G; Grühn, Daniel

    2016-07-01

    The field of emotion understanding is replete with measures, yet lacks an integrated conceptual organizing structure. To identify and organize skills associated with the recognition and knowledge of emotions, and to highlight the focus of emotion understanding as localized in the self, in specific others, and in generalized others, we introduce the conceptual framework of Emotion Understanding in Recognition and Knowledge Abilities (EUReKA). We then categorize fifty-six existing methods of emotion understanding within this framework to highlight current gaps and future opportunities in assessing emotion understanding across the lifespan. We hope the EUReKA model provides a systematic and integrated framework for conceptualizing and measuring emotion understanding for future research.

  5. Fostering radical conceptual change through dual-situated learning model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    She, Hsiao-Ching

    2004-02-01

    This article examines how the Dual-Situated Learning Model (DSLM) facilitates a radical change of concepts that involve the understanding of matter, process, and hierarchical attributes. The DSLM requires knowledge of students' prior beliefs of science concepts and the nature of these concepts. In addition, DSLM also serves two functions: it creates dissonance with students' prior knowledge by challenging their epistemological and ontological beliefs about science concepts, and it provides essential mental sets for students to reconstruct a more scientific view of the concepts. In this study, the concept heat transfer: heat conduction and convection, which requires an understanding of matter, process, and hierarchical attributes, was chosen to examine how DSLM can facilitate radical conceptual change among students. Results show that DSLM has great potential to foster a radical conceptual change process in learning heat transfer. Radical conceptual change can definitely be achieved and does not necessarily involve a slow or gradual process.

  6. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Apps for Decision Support in the Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swain, N. R.; Latu, K.; Christiensen, S.; Jones, N.; Nelson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Advances in computation resources and greater availability of water resources data represent an untapped resource for addressing hydrologic uncertainties in water resources decision-making. The current practice of water authorities relies on empirical, lumped hydrologic models to estimate watershed response. These models are not capable of taking advantage of many of the spatial datasets that are now available. Physically-based, distributed hydrologic models are capable of using these data resources and providing better predictions through stochastic analysis. However, there exists a digital divide that discourages many science-minded decision makers from using distributed models. This divide can be spanned using a combination of existing web technologies. The purpose of this presentation is to present a cloud-based environment that will offer hydrologic modeling tools or 'apps' for decision support and the web technologies that have been selected to aid in its implementation. Compared to the more commonly used lumped-parameter models, distributed models, while being more intuitive, are still data intensive, computationally expensive, and difficult to modify for scenario exploration. However, web technologies such as web GIS, web services, and cloud computing have made the data more accessible, provided an inexpensive means of high-performance computing, and created an environment for developing user-friendly apps for distributed modeling. Since many water authorities are primarily interested in the scenario exploration exercises with hydrologic models, we are creating a toolkit that facilitates the development of a series of apps for manipulating existing distributed models. There are a number of hurdles that cloud-based hydrologic modeling developers face. One of these is how to work with the geospatial data inherent with this class of models in a web environment. Supporting geospatial data in a website is beyond the capabilities of standard web frameworks and it

  7. A new conceptual model of convection

    SciTech Connect

    Walcek, C.

    1995-09-01

    Classical cumulus parameterizations assume that cumulus clouds are entraining plumes of hot air rising through the atmosphere. However, ample evidence shows that clouds cannot be simulated using this approach. Dr. Walcek suggests that cumulus clouds can be reasonably simulated by assuming that buoyant plumes detrain mass as they rise through the atmosphere. Walcek successfully simulates measurements of tropical convection using this detraining model of cumulus convection. Comparisons with measurements suggest that buoyant plumes encounter resistance to upward movement as they pass through dry layers in the atmosphere. This probably results from turbulent mixing and evaporation of cloud water, which generates negatively buoyant mixtures which detrain from the upward moving plume. This mass flux model of detraining plumes is considerably simpler than existing mass flux models, yet reproduces many of the measured effects associated with convective activity. 1 fig.

  8. Hydrologic modeling of soil water storage in landfill cover systems

    SciTech Connect

    Barnes, F.J.; Rodgers, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    The accuracy of modeling soil water storage by two hydrologic models, CREAMS and HELP, was tested by comparing simulation results with field measurements of soil moisture in eight experimental landfill cover systems having a range of well-defined soil profiles and vegetative covers. Regression analysis showed that CREAMS generally represented soil moisture more accurately than HELP simulations. Soil profiles that more closely resembled natural agricultural soils were more accurately modeled than highly artificial layered soil profiles. Precautions for determining parameter values for model input and for interpreting simulation results are discussed.

  9. Coupled Dynamic Modeling to Assess Human Impact on Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, I. N.; Tsai, Y.; Turnbull, S.; Bomblies, A.; Zia, A.

    2014-12-01

    Humans are intrinsic to the hydrologic system, both as agents of change and as beneficiaries of ecosystem services. This connection has been underappreciated in hydrology. We present a modeling linkage framework of an agent-based land use change model with a physical-based watershed model. The coupled model framework presented constitutes part of an integrated assessment model that is being developed to study human-ecosystem interaction in Missisquoi Bay, spanning Vermont and Québec, which is experiencing high concentrations of nutrients from the Missisquoi River watershed. The integrated assessment approach proposed is comprised of linking two simulation models: the Interactive Land-Use Transition Agent-Based Model (ILUTABM) and a physically based process model, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys). The ILUTABM treats both landscape and landowners as agents and simulates annual land-use patterns resulting from landowners annual land-use decisions and Best Management Practices (BMPs) adaptations to landowners utilities, land productivity and perceived impacts of floods. The Missisquoi River at Swanton watershed RHESSys model (drainage area of 2,200 km2) driven by climate data was first calibrated to daily streamflows and water quality sensor data at the watershed outlet. Simulated land-use patterns were then processed to drive the calibrated RHESSys model to obtain streamflow nutrient loading realizations. Nutrients loading realizations are then examined and routed back to the ILUTAB model to obtain public polices needed to manage the Missisquoi watershed as well as the Lake Champlain in general. We infer that the applicability of this approach can be generalized to other similar watersheds. Index Terms: 0402: Agricultural systems; 1800: Hydrology; 1803: Anthropogenic effects; 1834 Human impacts; 6344: System operation and management; 6334: Regional Planning

  10. Learning strategies: a synthesis and conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hattie, John A. C.; Donoghue, Gregory M.

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of this article is to explore a model of learning that proposes that various learning strategies are powerful at certain stages in the learning cycle. The model describes three inputs and outcomes (skill, will and thrill), success criteria, three phases of learning (surface, deep and transfer) and an acquiring and consolidation phase within each of the surface and deep phases. A synthesis of 228 meta-analyses led to the identification of the most effective strategies. The results indicate that there is a subset of strategies that are effective, but this effectiveness depends on the phase of the model in which they are implemented. Further, it is best not to run separate sessions on learning strategies but to embed the various strategies within the content of the subject, to be clearer about developing both surface and deep learning, and promoting their associated optimal strategies and to teach the skills of transfer of learning. The article concludes with a discussion of questions raised by the model that need further research.

  11. A Conceptual Model of Preschool Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paget, Kathleen D.; Nagle, Richard J.

    1986-01-01

    An ecologically-based model is offered to guide the assessment activities of school psychologists at the preschool level. The uniqueness of the preschool population, the multidimensional structure of the assessment process, and the connection between assessment results and the intervention strategies are emphasized. (Author/LMO)

  12. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  13. Hydrologic modeling of reclaimed strip mine spoil

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, K.B.; Stoertz, M.W.; Turney, D.C.

    1998-12-31

    A numerical groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) of a surface coal mine in southeast Ohio was calibrated under steady state conditions to match measured heads by varying hydraulic conductivity (K) and recharge (R). Sensitivity studies indicated that K was not largely dependent on the poorly quantified underclay elevation or on the lake boundary condition. The baseflow recharge was determined to be between 8 and 60 mm/yr (1 to 6% of annual rainfall) and K between 0.004 and 0.01 cm/s for the spoil aquifer.

  14. Results of Formal Evaluation of a Data and Modeling Driven Hydrology Learning Module

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruddell, B. L.; Sanchez, C. A.; Schiesser, R.; Merwade, V.

    2014-12-01

    New hydrologists should not only develop a well-defined knowledgebase of basic hydrological concepts, but also synthesize this factual learning with more authentic 'real-world' knowledge gained from the interpretation and analysis of data from hydrological models (Merwade and Ruddell, 2012, Wagener et al., 2007). However, hydrological instruction is often implemented using a traditional teacher-centered approach (e.g., lectures) (Wagener, 2007). The emergence of rich and dynamic computer simulation techniques which allow students the opportunity for more authentic application of knowledge (Merwade & Ruddell, 2012). This study evaluates the efficacy of using such data-driven simulations to increase the understanding of the field of hydrology in the lower-division undergraduate geoscience classroom. In this study, 88 students at a local community college who were enrolled in an Introductory Earth Science class were evaluated on their learning performance in a unit on applying the Rational Method to estimate hydrographs and flooding for urban areas. Students were either presented with a data and visualization rich computer module (n=52), or with paper and pencil calculation activities (n=36). All conceptual material presented in lecture was consistent across these two conditions. Students were evaluated for not only changes in their knowledge and application of the concepts within the unit (e.g., effects of urbanization and impervious cover, discharge rates), but also for their broad "T-shaped" profile of professional knowledge and skills. While results showed significant (p<.05) increases from pre to post assessments in all learning areas for both groups, there is a significantly larger benefit for the data module group when it came to (1) understanding the effects of urbanization and impervious cover on flooding, (2) applying consistent vocabulary appropriately within context, and (3) explaining the roles and responsibilities of hydrologists and flood managers.

  15. Development of a landscape unit delineation framework for ecoy-hydrologic models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes in eco-hydrological models facilitates the identification of critical source areas and the placement of management and conservation measures. Especially floodplains are critical landscape features that differ from nei...

  16. Simultaneous Semi-Distributed Model Calibration Guided by Hydrologic Landscapes in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Modelling approaches to transfer hydrologically-relevant information from locations with streamflow measurements to locations without such measurements continues to be an active field of research for hydrologists. The Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Landscapes (PNW HL) provide a sol...

  17. A NEW APPROACH TO HYDROLOGIC MODELING: DERIVED DISTRIBUTIONS REVISITED. (R824780)

    EPA Science Inventory

    A fractal geometric procedure to model hydrologic (geophysical) phenomena is introduced. The method consists of using derived distributions, obtained by transforming arbitrary multinomial multifractal measures via fractal interpolating functions, to represent observed hydrologic ...

  18. Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

  19. Effective and efficient algorithm for multiobjective optimization of hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Bastidas, Luis A.; Bouten, Willem; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2003-08-01

    Practical experience with the calibration of hydrologic models suggests that any single-objective function, no matter how carefully chosen, is often inadequate to properly measure all of the characteristics of the observed data deemed to be important. One strategy to circumvent this problem is to define several optimization criteria (objective functions) that measure different (complementary) aspects of the system behavior and to use multicriteria optimization to identify the set of nondominated, efficient, or Pareto optimal solutions. In this paper, we present an efficient and effective Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, entitled the Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm, which is capable of solving the multiobjective optimization problem for hydrologic models. MOSCEM is an improvement over the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) global optimization algorithm, using the concept of Pareto dominance (rather than direct single-objective function evaluation) to evolve the initial population of points toward a set of solutions stemming from a stable distribution (Pareto set). The efficacy of the MOSCEM-UA algorithm is compared with the original MOCOM-UA algorithm for three hydrologic modeling case studies of increasing complexity.

  20. Calibration and validation of DRAINMOD to model bioretention hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, R. A.; Skaggs, R. W.; Hunt, W. F.

    2013-04-01

    SummaryPrevious field studies have shown that the hydrologic performance of bioretention cells varies greatly because of factors such as underlying soil type, physiographic region, drainage configuration, surface storage volume, drainage area to bioretention surface area ratio, and media depth. To more accurately describe bioretention hydrologic response, a long-term hydrologic model that generates a water balance is needed. Some current bioretention models lack the ability to perform long-term simulations and others have never been calibrated from field monitored bioretention cells with underdrains. All peer-reviewed models lack the ability to simultaneously perform both of the following functions: (1) model an internal water storage (IWS) zone drainage configuration and (2) account for soil-water content using the soil-water characteristic curve. DRAINMOD, a widely-accepted agricultural drainage model, was used to simulate the hydrologic response of runoff entering a bioretention cell. The concepts of water movement in bioretention cells are very similar to those of agricultural fields with drainage pipes, so many bioretention design specifications corresponded directly to DRAINMOD inputs. Detailed hydrologic measurements were collected from two bioretention field sites in Nashville and Rocky Mount, North Carolina, to calibrate and test the model. Each field site had two sets of bioretention cells with varying media depths, media types, drainage configurations, underlying soil types, and surface storage volumes. After 12 months, one of these characteristics was altered - surface storage volume at Nashville and IWS zone depth at Rocky Mount. At Nashville, during the second year (post-repair period), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for drainage and exfiltration/evapotranspiration (ET) both exceeded 0.8 during the calibration and validation periods. During the first year (pre-repair period), the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for drainage, overflow, and exfiltration

  1. A priori discretization quality metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James; Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita

    2016-04-01

    In distributed hydrologic modelling, a watershed is treated as a set of small homogeneous units that address the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed being simulated. The ability of models to reproduce observed spatial patterns firstly depends on the spatial discretization, which is the process of defining homogeneous units in the form of grid cells, subwatersheds, or hydrologic response units etc. It is common for hydrologic modelling studies to simply adopt a nominal or default discretization strategy without formally assessing alternative discretization levels. This approach lacks formal justifications and is thus problematic. More formalized discretization strategies are either a priori or a posteriori with respect to building and running a hydrologic simulation model. A posteriori approaches tend to be ad-hoc and compare model calibration and/or validation performance under various watershed discretizations. The construction and calibration of multiple versions of a distributed model can become a seriously limiting computational burden. Current a priori approaches are more formalized and compare overall heterogeneity statistics of dominant variables between candidate discretization schemes and input data or reference zones. While a priori approaches are efficient and do not require running a hydrologic model, they do not fully investigate the internal spatial pattern changes of variables of interest. Furthermore, the existing a priori approaches focus on landscape and soil data and do not assess impacts of discretization on stream channel definition even though its significance has been noted by numerous studies. The primary goals of this study are to (1) introduce new a priori discretization quality metrics considering the spatial pattern changes of model input data; (2) introduce a two-step discretization decision-making approach to compress extreme errors and meet user-specified discretization expectations through non-uniform discretization threshold

  2. A strategy for using climate data for hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rust, Henning W.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Vagenas, Christos; Meredith, Edmund; Agbeko Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modeling is the basis for water related impact assessment and the development of management strategies. These models are driven with meteorological data such as precipitation, temperature, wind and humidity. Depending on the nature of the problem, hydrological modelers require meteorological data with a very high spatial and temporal resolution, e.g. to a few kilometers and hours. As dynamical downscaling to such a high resolution is computationally very costly, a continuous downscaling of global climate projections is not feasible for a longer time period. For BINGO, a double-tracked strategy will be implemented to cope with this problem: 1) high resolution dynamical downscaling is limited to episodes favoring hydrological extremes and 2) conditional weather generators are used to simulated large ensembles of spatio-temporal driving fields consistent with the current or projected climate. The first track requires identification of the relevant episodes from global simulations. This is realized by clustering atmospheric variables to obtain a set of circulation patterns. Episodes containing sequences of circulation patterns associated with hydrological extremes are then further downscaled and bias corrected. The second track relies on setting up a weather generator allowing to simulate all relevant variables consistent with the recent climate. We seek to establish a link between this generator and large scale atmospheric drivers to allow simulations consistent with climate projections. While dynamical downscaling is strong in simulating meteorological driving data associated with particular events, conditional weather generators simulate a broader range of events consistent with the large scale situation. The two tracks thus complement each other.

  3. Improving predictive certainty and system understanding with watershed hydrology models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelleher, C.; McGlynn, B. L.; Wagener, T.

    2015-12-01

    Modeling at the intersection of climate variability and hydrology is complicated by uncertainties that make predicting physical behavior a challenge. Environmental models used to simulate how climate will impact hydrology are typically complex, demand many spatial and temporal data inputs, contain numerous parameters, and can be computationally expensive. Distributed models in particular complicate the assessment of how uncertainty in the model framework, inputs, parameters, and observations impact predictive uncertainty. In addition, future climate perturbations may alter the magnitude of these uncertainties. Here, we focus on model parameters as a key source of uncertainty. Identifying those model parameters that most influence the predictions at a particular place can reduce a complex, multidimensional problem to a simpler form. We demonstrate how sensitivity analysis in the absence of observational streamflow can be used to identify sensitive model parameters by conditioning a model on climate data and a priori parameter ranges. We apply this approach to five headwater catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest located in central Montana using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model. Across these five sub-catchments, climate clearly organizes parameter sensitivities. To further explore the relationship between parameter sensitivities and climate, we assess how parameter sensitivities change when meteorological forcing data is perturbed to reflect natural variability at the site. This general approach can support uncertainty reduction. However, parameter equifinality will still impact finer scale predictions of any environmental variable in space and time. As such, improving our certainty in environmental predictions should evaluate point predictions as well as simulations of internal catchment behavior, and must not only rely on our use of computational methods but on our basic understanding of system functioning.

  4. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  5. Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

    2013-10-01

    Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. The groundwater

  6. Scale dependencies of hydrologic models to spatial variability of precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koren, V. I.; Finnerty, B. D.; Schaake, J. C.; Smith, M. B.; Seo, D.-J.; Duan, Q.-Y.

    1999-04-01

    This study is focused on analyses of scale dependency of lumped hydrological models with different formulations of the infiltration processes. Three lumped hydrological models of differing complexity were used in the study: the SAC-SMA model, the Oregon State University (OSU) model, and the simple water balance (SWB) model. High-resolution (4×4 km) rainfall estimates from the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) Stage III in the Arkansas-Red river basin were used in the study. These gridded precipitation estimates are a multi-sensor product which combines the spatial resolution of the radar data with the ground truth estimates of the gage data. Results were generated from each model using different resolutions of spatial averaging of hourly rainfall. Although all selected models were scale dependent, the level of dependency varied significantly with different formulations of the rainfall-runoff partitioning mechanism. Infiltration-excess type models were the most sensitive. Saturation-excess type models were less scale dependent. Probabilistic averaging of the point processes reduces scale dependency, however, its effectiveness varies depending on the scale and the spatial structure of rainfall.

  7. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    In a major Danish funded research project (www.hyacints.dk) a coupling is being established between the HIRHAM regional climate model code from Danish Meteorological Institute and the MIKE SHE distributed hydrological model code from DHI. The linkage between those two codes is a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer scheme, which is a module of MIKE SHE. The coupled model will be established for the entire country of Denmark (43,000 km2 land area) where a MIKE SHE based hydrological model already exists (Henriksen et al., 2003, 2008). The present paper presents the MIKE SHE SVAT module and the methodology used for parameterising and calibrating the MIKE SHE SVAT module for use throughout the country. As SVAT models previously typically have been tested for research field sites with comprehensive data on energy fluxes, soil and vegetation data, the major challenge lies in parameterisation of the model when only ordinary data exist. For this purpose annual variations of vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index (LAI), Crop height, Root depth and the surface albedo) for different combinations of soil profiles and vegetation types have been simulated by use of the soil plant atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al., 1990; Abrahamsen and Hansen, 2000) has been applied. The MIKE SHE SVAT using Daisy generated surface/soil properties model has been calibrated against existing data on groundwater heads and river discharges. Simulation results in form of evapotranspiration and percolation are compared to the existing MIKE SHE model and to observations. To analyse the use of the SVAT model in climate change impact assessments data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) have been analysed to assess the impacts on reference evapotranspiration (calculated by the Makkink and the Penmann-Monteith equations) as well as on the individual elements in the Penmann-Monteith equation (radiation, wind speed, humidity and temperature). The differences on the

  8. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  9. Are Equivalent Cross Sections the answer to the computational woes of Distributed Hydrologic Modelling?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, A.; Khan, U.; Tuteja, N. K.; Ajami, H.

    2014-12-01

    Distributed modelling or conceptual hydrologic modelling - this is a dilemma that hydrologists have grappled with since long. While distributed hydro-ecological models are conceptually elegant and physically defensible, are they practical to apply given the significant computational burden they come at? One possible way of improving their computational efficiency is presented here. A new approach of modelling over an equivalent cross-section (ECS) is investigated. A homogenization test indicates that the representation of soil type is most critical in forming the ECS. If the soil type remains same within the sub-basin, a single ECS is formulated. If the soil type follows a specific pattern, i.e., different soil types near the centre of the river, middle of hillslope and ridge line, three ECSs (left bank, right bank and head water) are required. ECSs are formulated for 8 first order sub-basins and simulated using a 2-dimensional, Richards' equation based distributed hydrological model. Simulated fluxes are multiplied by the weighted area of each ECS to calculate the total fluxes from the sub-basins. To assess the accuracy of the ECS approach, the sub-basins are also divided into equally spaced multiple hillslope cross-sections. These cross-sections are simulated in fully distributed settings using the above model. The simulated fluxes are multiplied by the contributing area of each cross-section to get total fluxes from each sub-basin referred as reference fluxes. At the first order sub-basin scale, results show that the simulated fluxes using an ECS approach are very close to the reference fluxes and computational time is reduced of the order of ~4 to ~22 times compared to the fully distributed settings. Overall, the accuracy achieved in dominant fluxes, transpiration and soil evaporation, is higher than the other fluxes. Over a larger catchment with 822 sub-basins reasonable accuracy in simulated runoff against observed discharge is achieved. As a result, this

  10. Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

  11. Quantifying and Generalizing Hydrologic Responses to Dam Regulation using a Statistical Modeling Approach

    SciTech Connect

    McManamay, Ryan A

    2014-01-01

    Despite the ubiquitous existence of dams within riverscapes, much of our knowledge about dams and their environmental effects remains context-specific. Hydrology, more than any other environmental variable, has been studied in great detail with regard to dam regulation. While much progress has been made in generalizing the hydrologic effects of regulation by large dams, many aspects of hydrology show site-specific fidelity to dam operations, small dams (including diversions), and regional hydrologic regimes. A statistical modeling framework is presented to quantify and generalize hydrologic responses to varying degrees of dam regulation. Specifically, the objectives were to 1) compare the effects of local versus cumulative dam regulation, 2) determine the importance of different regional hydrologic regimes in influencing hydrologic responses to dams, and 3) evaluate how different regulation contexts lead to error in predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Overall, model performance was poor in quantifying the magnitude of hydrologic responses, but performance was sufficient in classifying hydrologic responses as negative or positive. Responses of some hydrologic indices to dam regulation were highly dependent upon hydrologic class membership and the purpose of the dam. The opposing coefficients between local and cumulative-dam predictors suggested that hydrologic responses to cumulative dam regulation are complex, and predicting the hydrology downstream of individual dams, as opposed to multiple dams, may be more easy accomplished using statistical approaches. Results also suggested that particular contexts, including multipurpose dams, high cumulative regulation by multiple dams, diversions, close proximity to dams, and certain hydrologic classes are all sources of increased error when predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Statistical models, such as the ones presented herein, show promise in their ability to model the effects of dam regulation effects at

  12. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has been developed in this study. The developed model can continuously simulate infiltration through the permeable pavement surface, exfiltration from the storage to the surrounding in situ soils, and clogging impacts on infiltration/exfiltration capacity at the pavement surface and the bottom of the subsurface storage unit. The exfiltration modeling component simulates vertical and horizontal exfiltration independently based on Darcy’s formula with the Green-Ampt approximation. The developed model can be arranged with physically-based modeling parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, Manning’s friction flow parameters, saturated and field capacity volumetric water contents, porosity, density, etc. The developed model was calibrated using high-frequency observed data. The modeled water depths are well matched with the observed values (R2 = 0.90). The modeling results show that horizontal exfiltration through the side walls of the subsurface storage unit is a prevailing factor in determining the hydrologic performance of the system, especially where the storage unit is developed in a long, narrow shape; or with a high risk of bottom compaction and clogging. This paper presents unit

  13. Evaluation of a hydrological model based on Bidirectional Reach (BReach)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Eerdenbrugh, Katrien; Van Hoey, Stijn; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2016-04-01

    Evaluation and discrimination of model structures is crucial to ensure an appropriate use of hydrological models. When evaluating model results by aggregating their quality in (a subset of) individual observations, overall results of this analysis sometimes conceal important detailed information about model structural deficiencies. Analyzing model results within their local (time) context can uncover this detailed information. In this research, a methodology called Bidirectional Reach (BReach) is proposed to evaluate and analyze results of a hydrological model by assessing the maximum left and right reach in each observation point that is used for model evaluation. These maximum reaches express the capability of the model to describe a subset of the evaluation data both in the direction of the previous (left) and of the following data (right). This capability is evaluated on two levels. First, on the level of individual observations, the combination of a parameter set and an observation is classified as non-acceptable if the deviation between the accompanying model result and the measurement exceeds observational uncertainty. Second, the behavior in a sequence of observations is evaluated by means of a tolerance degree. This tolerance degree expresses the condition for satisfactory model behavior in a data series and is defined by the percentage of observations within this series that can have non-acceptable model results. Based on both criteria, the maximum left and right reaches of a model in an observation represent the data points in the direction of the previous respectively the following observations beyond which none of the sampled parameter sets both are satisfactory and result in an acceptable deviation. After assessing these reaches for a variety of tolerance degrees, results can be plotted in a combined BReach plot that show temporal changes in the behavior of model results. The methodology is applied on a Probability Distributed Model (PDM) of the river

  14. Conceptual Commitments of the LIDA Model of Cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franklin, Stan; Strain, Steve; McCall, Ryan; Baars, Bernard

    2013-06-01

    Significant debate on fundamental issues remains in the subfields of cognitive science, including perception, memory, attention, action selection, learning, and others. Psychology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence each contribute alternative and sometimes conflicting perspectives on the supervening problem of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Current efforts toward a broad-based, systems-level model of minds cannot await theoretical convergence in each of the relevant subfields. Such work therefore requires the formulation of tentative hypotheses, based on current knowledge, that serve to connect cognitive functions into a theoretical framework for the study of the mind. We term such hypotheses "conceptual commitments" and describe the hypotheses underlying one such model, the Learning Intelligent Distribution Agent (LIDA) Model. Our intention is to initiate a discussion among AGI researchers about which conceptual commitments are essential, or particularly useful, toward creating AGI agents.

  15. A Hydrologic and Geomorphic Model of Estuary Breaching and Closure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rich, A.; Keller, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Many coastal estuaries are separated seasonally from the ocean by a swash-deposited beach berm. The opening of the inlet may occur by fluvial erosion of the beach berm and closure occurs when sand deposition outpaces erosion of the inlet. To better understand how the hydrology of estuaries affects breaching and closing patterns, a model is developed that incorporates an estuary hydrologic budget with a geormorphic model of the inlet system. When calibrated, the model is able to reproduce the initial seasonal breaching, seasonal closure, intermittent closures and breaches, and the low-streamflow estuary hydrology of the Carmel Lagoon, located in Central California. For two years when the estuary inlet drains directly across the beach-berm in accordance with model assumptions, the calibrated model predicts the observed 48-hour estuary stage amplitude with correlation coefficients of 0.77 and 0.65. For the calibrated model, streamflow is the predominant control on whether the estuary inlet is open or closed. In a series of sensitivity analyses, it is seen that the function of bar-built, coastal estuaries are sensitive to morphologic and hydrologic variations of the beach berm, and changes to the estuary storage itself. By varying individual components of the berm-system and estuary storage, the amount of the time the estuary is open changes -43 - 28% for the 18.2 model period. The morphology of the berm affects barrier groundwater flow, inlet hydraulics, and estuary storage. Importantly, the elevation of the berm determines the volume of water that must enter the estuary in order to breach, and it modulates the wave-overtopping flux. A high berm renders streamflow the predominant control on function and decreases the amount of time that the estuary is open by 4%, whereas a lower berm allows wave-overtopping to contribute to function and increases time open by 24%. By excavating an estuary, it will breach less frequently (-32% change in open) and store water up to 3

  16. Validation of the conceptual anatomical model of the lung airway.

    PubMed

    Fleming, John S; Sauret, Veronique; Conway, Joy H; Martonen, Ted B

    2004-01-01

    The conceptual anatomical model of the lung airway considers each lung volume divided into ten concentric shells. It specifies the volume of each airway generation in each shell, using Weibel morphometry. This study updates and validates the model and evaluates the errors obtained when using it to estimate inhaled aerosol deposition per generation from spatial imaging data. A comparison of different airway models describing the volume per generation, including data from CT images of a lung cast and a human subject, was performed. A revised version of the conceptual model was created, using the average volume per generation from these data. The new model was applied to derive the aerosol deposition per generation from 24 single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies. Analysis errors were assessed by applying the same calculations but using airway models based on the minimum and maximum volumes per generation. The mean shell position of each generation in the average model was not significantly different from either CT model. However there were differences between the volumes per generation of the different models. The root mean square differences between bronchial airways deposition fraction (generations 2-8) obtained from the maximum and minimum models compared to the new average model was 0.66 percentage points (14%). For the conducting airways deposition fraction (generations 2-15) this was 1.66 percentage points (12%). The conceptual model is consistent with CT measurements of airway geometry. The errors resulting from using a generic airway model to interpret 3D radionuclide image data have been defined.

  17. Parameter estimation of hydrologic models using data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y. H.

    2005-12-01

    The uncertainties associated with the modeling of hydrologic systems sometimes demand that data should be incorporated in an on-line fashion in order to understand the behavior of the system. This paper represents a Bayesian strategy to estimate parameters for hydrologic models in an iterative mode. The paper presents a modified technique called localized Bayesian recursive estimation (LoBaRE) that efficiently identifies the optimum parameter region, avoiding convergence to a single best parameter set. The LoBaRE methodology is tested for parameter estimation for two different types of models: a support vector machine (SVM) model for predicting soil moisture, and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model for estimating streamflow. The SAC-SMA model has 13 parameters that must be determined. The SVM model has three parameters. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the best parameter set in an iterative fashion. This is done by narrowing the sampling space by imposing uncertainty bounds on the posterior best parameter set and/or updating the "parent" bounds based on their fitness. The new approach results in fast convergence towards the optimal parameter set using minimum training/calibration data and evaluation of fewer parameter sets. The efficacy of the localized methodology is also compared with the previously used Bayesian recursive estimation (BaRE) algorithm.

  18. Real-data Calibration Experiments On A Distributed Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brath, A.; Montanari, A.; Toth, E.

    The increasing availability of extended information on the study watersheds does not generally overcome the need for the determination through calibration of at least a part of the parameters of distributed hydrologic models. The complexity of such models, making the computations highly intensive, has often prevented an extensive analysis of calibration issues. The purpose of this study is an evaluation of the validation results of a series of automatic calibration experiments (using the shuffled complex evolu- tion method, Duan et al., 1992) performed with a highly conceptualised, continuously simulating, distributed hydrologic model applied on the real data of a mid-sized Ital- ian watershed. Major flood events occurred in the 1990-2000 decade are simulated with the parameters obtained by the calibration of the model against discharge data observed at the closure section of the watershed and the hydrological features (overall agreement, volumes, peaks and times to peak) of the discharges obtained both in the closure and in an interior stream-gauge are analysed for validation purposes. A first set of calibrations investigates the effect of the variability of the calibration periods, using the data from several single flood events and from longer, continuous periods. Another analysis regards the influence of rainfall input and it is carried out varying the size and distribution of the raingauge network, in order to examine the relation between the spatial pattern of observed rainfall and the variability of modelled runoff. Lastly, a comparison of the hydrographs obtained for the flood events with the model parameterisation resulting when modifying the objective function to be minimised in the automatic calibration procedure is presented.

  19. Hydrologic consistency analysed through modeling at multiple time steps: does hydrological model performance benefit from finer time step information?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficchi, Andrea; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2015-04-01

    We investigate the operational utility of fine time step hydro-climatic information using a large catchment data set. The originality of this data set lies in the availability of precipitation data from the 6-minute rain gauges of Météo-France, and in the size of the catchment set (217 French catchments in total). The rainfall-runoff model used (GR4) has been adapted to hourly and sub-hourly time steps (up to 6-minute) from the daily time step version (Perrin et al., 2003). The model is applied at different time steps ranging from 6-minute to 1 day (6-, 12-, 30-minute, 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-hour and 1 day) and the evolution of model performance for each catchment is evaluated at the daily time step by aggregation of model outputs. Three classes of behavior are found according to the trend of model performance as the time step becomes finer: (i) catchments presenting an improvement of model performance; (ii) catchments with a model performance insensitive to the time step; (iii) catchments for which the performance even deteriorates as the time step becomes finer. The reasons behind these different trends are investigated from a hydrological point of view, by relating the model sensitivity to data at finer time step to catchment descriptors. References: Perrin, C., C. Michel and V. Andréassian (2003), "Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation", Journal of Hydrology, 279(1-4): 275-289.

  20. Improved understanding and prediction of the hydrologic response of highly urbanized catchments through development of the Illinois Urban Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantone, Joshua; Schmidt, Arthur

    2011-08-01

    What happens to the rain in highly urbanized catchments? That is the question that urban hydrologists must ask themselves when trying to integrate the hydrologic and hydraulic processes that affect the hydrologic response of urban catchments. The Illinois Urban Hydrologic Model (IUHM) has been developed to help answer this question and improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic response in highly urbanized catchments. Urban catchments are significantly different than natural watersheds, but there are similarities that allow features of the pioneering geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph concept developed for natural watersheds to be adapted to the urban setting. This probabilistically based approach is a marked departure from the traditional deterministic models used to design and simulate urban sewer systems and does not have the burdensome input data requirements that detailed deterministic models possess. Application of IUHM to the CDS-51 catchment located in the village of Dolton, Illinois, highlights the model's ability to predict the hydrologic response of the catchment as well as the widely accepted SWMM model and is in accordance with observed data recorded by the United States Geological Survey. In addition, the unique structure and organization of urban sewer networks make it possible to characterize a set of ratios for urban catchments that allow IUHM to be applied when detailed input data are not available.

  1. Global Hydrological Hazard Evaluation System (Global BTOP) Using Distributed Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusyev, M.; Magome, J.; Hasegawa, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-12-01

    A global hydrological hazard evaluation system based on the BTOP models (Global BTOP) is introduced and quantifies flood and drought hazards with simulated river discharges globally for historical, near real-time monitoring and climate change impact studies. The BTOP model utilizes a modified topographic index concept and simulates rainfall-runoff processes including snowmelt, overland flow, soil moisture in the root and unsaturated zones, sub-surface flow, and river flow routing. The current global BTOP is constructed from global data on 10-min grid and is available to conduct river basin analysis on local, regional, and global scale. To reduce the impact of a coarse resolution, topographical features of global BTOP were obtained using river network upscaling algorithm that preserves fine resolution characteristics of 3-arcsec HydroSHEDS and 30-arcsec Hydro1K datasets. In addition, GLCC-IGBP land cover (USGS) and the DSMW(FAO) were used for the root zone depth and soil properties, respectively. The long-term seasonal potential evapotranspiration within BTOP model was estimated by the Shuttleworth-Wallace model using climate forcing data CRU TS3.1 and a GIMMS-NDVI(UMD/GLCF). The global BTOP was run with globally available precipitation such APHRODITE dataset and showed a good statistical performance compared to the global and local river discharge data in the major river basins. From these simulated daily river discharges at each grid, the flood peak discharges of selected return periods were obtained using the Gumbel distribution with L-moments and the hydrological drought hazard was quantified using standardized runoff index (SRI). For the dynamic (near real-time) applications, the global BTOP model is run with GSMaP-NRT global precipitation and simulated daily river discharges are utilized in a prototype near-real time discharge simulation system (GFAS-Streamflow), which is used to issue flood peak discharge alerts globally. The global BTOP system and GFAS

  2. Spatial organisation in hydrological model structure for New Zealand catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMillan, Hilary; Woods, Ross; Clark, Martyn

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologists increasingly agree that a single hydrological model structure is unlikely to be suitable for all catchments: instead, models should be selected according to characteristics of the catchment. Our challenge is to determine how to select the most appropriate model structure. This complex question requires that we use observed data to infer dominant runoff generation processes, and translate this process knowledge into model structure choices. We can then ask questions such as: over what scales do recommended model structures change? How much data is needed to select model structure? How can we generalise model structure choices to catchments where data is scarce? In this presentation we address these questions, using the New Zealand landscape as our 'virtual laboratory'. New Zealand is an excellent location to test hypotheses relating to model structure, due to its rich diversity of hydrological landscapes. Landscape types range from temperate rainforest with steep, bedrock gorges, through rolling pasture, to alluvial plains with braided rivers. Our method is to apply diagnostic signatures, which use a range of hydrological data types, to target specific aspects of model structure choice. We bring together results from national hydrometric networks, and in-depth studies in experimental catchments, to explore organisation, similarity and diversity in recommended model structures across the New Zealand landscape. To identify model structures which are consistent with measured data, we use a range of diagnostic signatures tailored to the data types available. At the national scale, networks of rain and flow gauges are used to investigate runoff ratio, recession characteristics and threshold responses to precipitation and soil moisture. At the experimental Mahurangi catchments, dense networks of 13 rain, 27 flow and 36 soil moisture gauges within a 50 km2 area enable us to evaluate small-scale patterns and diversities of model structure. In contrast, the

  3. Conceptual Model for Selenium Cycling in the Great Salt Lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, W. P.; Conover, M. R.; Wurtsbaugh, W. A.; Adams, J.

    2006-12-01

    The conceptual model for Selenium cycling in the Great Salt Lake was developed to guide investigations in support of determining an open water selenium standard for the Great Salt Lake. The motivation to determine this particular selenium standard derives from public concern for a plan to allow disposal of reverse osmosis (RO) concentrate in the GSL, which would contain elevated concentrations of major and trace elements, including selenium. The development of an open water standard for selenium requires a working knowledge of the biological significance of existing selenium concentrations in the Great Salt Lake, as well as a working understanding of the likely changes of these concentrations over time given existing and proposed loads to the system. This working knowledge" is being represented in a conceptual model that accounts for selenium in various stocks" in the system (e.g. water, sediment, biota) and the flow" of selenium between stocks (e.g., precipitation and settling, volatilization, bioconcentration). It illustrates the critical pathway of selenium in the Great Salt Lake from water, to microorganisms, to brine shrimp and brine flies, to birds, and to their eggs. It also addresses the complexity of the GSL system: a) Spatially diverse, being comprised by four distinct bays and two layers, with major differences in salinity among their waters. b) Temporally dynamic, due to seasonal and inter-annual variations in runoff. The conceptual model is presently descriptive, but will serve as the basis for a semi-quantitative model that will be fed by data accumulated during subsequent investigations.

  4. Conceptual classification model for Sustainable Flood Retention Basins.

    PubMed

    Scholz, Miklas; Sadowski, Adam J

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to recommend a rapid conceptual classification model for Sustainable Flood Retention Basins (SFRB) used to control runoff in a temperate climate. An SFRB is an aesthetically pleasing retention basin predominantly used for flood protection adhering to sustainable drainage and best management practices. The classification model was developed on the basis of a database of 141 SFRB using the River Rhine catchment in Baden (part of Baden-Württemberg, Germany) as a case study. It is based on an agglomerative cluster analysis and is intended to be used by engineers and scientists to adequately classify the following different types of SFRB: Hydraulic Flood Retention Basin, Traditional Flood Retention Basin, Sustainable Flood Retention Wetland, Aesthetic Flood Retention Wetland, Integrated Flood Retention Wetland and Natural Flood Retention Wetland. The selection of classification variables was supported by a principal component analysis. The identification of SFRB in the data set was based on a Ward cluster analysis of 34 weighted classification variables. Scoring tables were defined to enable the assignment of the six SFRB definitions to retention basins in the data set. The efficiency of these tables was based on a scoring system which gave the conceptual model for the example case study sites an overall efficiency of approximately 60% (as opposed to 17% by chance). This conceptual classification model should be utilized to improve communication by providing definitions for SFRB types. The classification definitions are likely to be applicable for other regions with both temperate oceanic and temperate continental climates.

  5. Application of Physics Based Distributed Hydrologic Models to Assess Anthropologic Land Disturbance in Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Downer, C. W.; Ogden, F. L.; Byrd, A. R.

    2008-12-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) manages approximately 200,000 km2 of land within the United States on military installations and flood control and river improvement projects. The Watershed Systems Group (WSG) within the Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory of the Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) supports the US Army and the US Army Corps of Engineers in both military and civil operations through the development, modification and application of surface and sub-surface hydrologic models. The US Army has a long history of land management and the development of analytical tools to assist with the management of US Army lands. The US Army has invested heavily in the distributed hydrologic model GSSHA and its predecessor CASC2D. These tools have been applied at numerous military and civil sites to analyze the effects of landscape alteration on hydrologic response and related consequences, changes in erosion and sediment transport, along with associated contaminants. Examples include: impacts of military training and land management activities, impact of changing land use (urbanization or environmental restoration), as well as impacts of management practices employed to abate problems, i.e. Best Management Practices (BMPs). Traditional models such as HSPF and SWAT, are largely conceptual in nature. GSSHA attempts to simulate the physical processes actually occurring in the watershed allowing the user to explicitly simulate changing parameter values in response to changes in land use, land cover, elevation, etc. Issues of scale raise questions: How do we best include fine-scale land use or management features in models of large watersheds? Do these features have to be represented explicitly through physical processes in the watershed domain? Can a point model, physical or empirical, suffice? Can these features be lumped into coarsely resolved numerical grids or sub-watersheds? In this presentation we will discuss the US Army's distributed hydrologic models in

  6. Insights about data assimilation frameworks for integrating GRACE with hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumacher, Maike; Kusche, Jürgen; Van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Döll, Petra; Schuh, Wolf-Dieter

    2016-04-01

    Improving the understanding of changes in the water cycle represents a challenging objective that requires merging information from various disciplines. Debates exist on selecting an appropriate assimilation technique to integrate GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) into hydrological models in order to downscale and disaggregate GRACE TWSC, overcome model limitations, and improve monitoring and forecast skills. Yet, the effect of the specific data assimilation technique in conjunction with ill-conditioning, colored noise, resolution mismatch between GRACE and model, and other complications is still unclear. Due to its simplicity, ensemble Kalman filters or smoothers (EnKF/S) are often applied. In this study, we show that modification of the filter approach might open new avenues to improve the integration process. Particularly, we discuss an improved calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) framework (Schumacher et al., 2016), which is based on the EnKF and was extended by the square root analysis scheme (SQRA) and the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. In addition, we discuss an off-line data blending approach (Van Dijk et al., 2014) that offers the chance to merge multi-model ensembles with GRACE observations. The investigations include: (i) a theoretical comparison, focusing on similarities and differences of the conceptual formulation of the filter algorithms, (ii) a practical comparison, for which the approaches were applied to an ensemble of runs of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), as well as (iii) an impact assessment of the GRACE error structure on C/DA results. First, a synthetic experiment over the Mississippi River Basin (USA) was used to gain insights about the C/DA set-up before applying it to real data. The results indicated promising performances when considering alternative methods, e.g. applying the SEIK algorithm improved the correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) of TWSC by 0

  7. Conceptual model for regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. Final draft, technical memorandum

    SciTech Connect

    Walton, W.C.; Voorhees, M.L.; Prickett, T.A.

    1980-05-23

    This technical memorandum was prepared to: (1) describe a typical basalt radionuclide repository site, (2) describe geologic and hydrologic processes associated with regional radionuclide transport in basalts, (3) define the parameters required to model regional radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site, and (4) develop a ''conceptual model'' of radionuclide transport from a basalt repository site. In a general hydrological sense, basalts may be described as layered sequences of aquifers and aquitards. The Columbia River Basalt, centered near the semi-arid Pasco Basin, is considered by many to be typical basalt repository host rock. Detailed description of the flow system including flow velocities with high-low hydraulic conductivity sequences are not possible with existing data. However, according to theory, waste-transport routes are ultimately towards the Columbia River and the lengths of flow paths from the repository to the biosphere may be relatively short. There are many physical, chemical, thermal, and nuclear processes with associated parameters that together determine the possible pattern of radionuclide migration in basalts and surrounding formations. Brief process descriptions and associated parameter lists are provided. Emphasis has been placed on the use of the distribution coefficient in simulating ion exchange. The use of the distribution coefficient approach is limited because it takes into account only relatively fast mass transfer processes. In general, knowledge of hydrogeochemical processes is primitive.

  8. Scientific and conceptual flaws of coercive treatment models in addiction.

    PubMed

    Uusitalo, Susanne; van der Eijk, Yvette

    2016-01-01

    In conceptual debates on addiction, neurobiological research has been used to support the idea that addicted drug users lack control over their addiction-related actions. In some interpretations, this has led to coercive treatment models, in which, the purpose is to 'restore' control. However, neurobiological studies that go beyond what is typically presented in conceptual debates paint a different story. In particular, they indicate that though addiction has neurobiological manifestations that make the addictive behaviour difficult to control, it is possible for individuals to reverse these manifestations through their own efforts. Thus, addicted individuals should not be considered incapable of making choices voluntarily, simply on the basis that addiction has neurobiological manifestations, and coercive treatment models of addiction should be reconsidered in this respect.

  9. CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND METHODS TO GUIDE DIAGNOSTIC RESEARCH INTO CAUSES OF IMPAIRMENT TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Methods and conceptual models to guide the development of tools for diagnosing the causes of biological impairment within aquatic ecosystems of the United States are described in this report. The conceptual models developed here address nutrients, suspended and bedded sediments (...

  10. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  11. Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yapo, Patrice Ogou; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    1998-01-01

    The development of automated (computer-based) calibration methods has focused mainly on the selection of a single-objective measure of the distance between the model-simulated output and the data and the selection of an automatic optimization algorithm to search for the parameter values which minimize that distance. However, practical experience with model calibration suggests that no single-objective function is adequate to measure the ways in which the model fails to match the important characteristics of the observed data. Given that some of the latest hydrologic models simulate several of the watershed output fluxes (e.g. water, energy, chemical constituents, etc.), there is a need for effective and efficient multi-objective calibration procedures capable of exploiting all of the useful information about the physical system contained in the measurement data time series. The MOCOM-UA algorithm, an effective and efficient methodology for solving the multiple-objective global optimization problem, is presented in this paper. The method is an extension of the successful SCE-UA single-objective global optimization algorithm. The features and capabilities of MOCOM-UA are illustrated by means of a simple hydrologic model calibration study.

  12. Mid-Holocene hydrologic model of the Shingobee watershed, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Filby, S.K.; Locke, Sharon M.; Person, M.A.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Ito, E.

    2002-01-01

    A hydrologifc model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990-1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake. Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

  13. Calibration and uncertainty issues of a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuol, J.; Abbaspour, K. C.

    2006-09-01

    Distributed hydrological models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) are often highly over-parameterized, making parameter specification and parameter estimation inevitable steps in model calibration. Manual calibration is almost infeasible due to the complexity of large-scale models with many objectives. Therefore we used a multi-site semi-automated inverse modelling routine (SUFI-2) for calibration and uncertainty analysis. Nevertheless, the question of when a model is sufficiently calibrated remains open, and requires a project dependent definition. Due to the non-uniqueness of effective parameter sets, parameter calibration and prediction uncertainty of a model are intimately related. We address some calibration and uncertainty issues using SWAT to model a four million km2 area in West Africa, including mainly the basins of the river Niger, Volta and Senegal. This model is a case study in a larger project with the goal of quantifying the amount of global country-based available freshwater. Annual and monthly simulations with the "calibrated" model for West Africa show promising results in respect of the freshwater quantification but also point out the importance of evaluating the conceptual model uncertainty as well as the parameter uncertainty.

  14. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.

    2014-12-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  15. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    SciTech Connect

    Dewart, Jean Marie

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  16. The application of ecohydrological groundwater indicators to hydrogeological conceptual models.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews the application of ecohydrological indicators to hydrogeological conceptual models for earth-scientists with little or no botanical training. Ecohydrological indicators are plants whose presence or morphology can provide data about the hydrogeological setting. By examining the literature from the fields of ecohydrology, hydrogeology, geobotany, and ecology, this article summarizes what is known about groundwater indicator plants, their potential for providing information about the aquifer, and how this data can be a cost-effective addition to hydrogeological conceptual models. We conclude that the distribution and morphology of ecohydrological groundwater indicator plants can be useful to hydrogeologists in certain circumstances. They are easiest to evaluate in arid and semiarid climates. Ecohydrological groundwater indicators can provide information about the absolute depth to the water table, patterns of groundwater fluctuation, and the mineralization of the aquifer. It is shown that an understanding of the meteorological conditions of a region is often necessary to accurately interpret groundwater indicator plants and that useful data is usually obtained by observing patterns of vegetation behavior rather than interpreting individual plants. The most serious limitations to applying this source of information to hydrogeological conceptual models are the limited data in the literature and the regional nature of many indicator plants. The physical and physiological indications of the plants exist, but little effort has been made to interpret them. This article concludes by outlining several potential lines of research that could further the usefulness of ecohydrological groundwater indicators to the hydrogeological community.

  17. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  18. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J. A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B. F. W.; Frede, H.-G.; Gräff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lindström, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N. R.

    2009-02-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  19. Conceptual Models in Health Informatics Research: A Literature Review and Suggestions for Development

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background Contributing to health informatics research means using conceptual models that are integrative and explain the research in terms of the two broad domains of health science and information science. However, it can be hard for novice health informatics researchers to find exemplars and guidelines in working with integrative conceptual models. Objectives The aim of this paper is to support the use of integrative conceptual models in research on information and communication technologies in the health sector, and to encourage discussion of these conceptual models in scholarly forums. Methods A two-part method was used to summarize and structure ideas about how to work effectively with conceptual models in health informatics research that included (1) a selective review and summary of the literature of conceptual models; and (2) the construction of a step-by-step approach to developing a conceptual model. Results The seven-step methodology for developing conceptual models in health informatics research explained in this paper involves (1) acknowledging the limitations of health science and information science conceptual models; (2) giving a rationale for one’s choice of integrative conceptual model; (3) explicating a conceptual model verbally and graphically; (4) seeking feedback about the conceptual model from stakeholders in both the health science and information science domains; (5) aligning a conceptual model with an appropriate research plan; (6) adapting a conceptual model in response to new knowledge over time; and (7) disseminating conceptual models in scholarly and scientific forums. Conclusions Making explicit the conceptual model that underpins a health informatics research project can contribute to increasing the number of well-formed and strongly grounded health informatics research projects. This explication has distinct benefits for researchers in training, research teams, and researchers and practitioners in information, health, and other

  20. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  1. Conceptual hydrogeological model of volcanic Easter Island (Chile) after chemical and isotopic surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera, Christian; Custodio, Emilio

    2008-11-01

    Most human activities and hydrogeological information on small young volcanic islands are near the coastal area. There are almost no hydrological data from inland areas, where permanent springs and/or boreholes may be rare or nonexistent. A major concern is the excessive salinity of near-the-coast wells. Obtaining a conceptual hydrogeological model is crucial for groundwater resources development and management. Surveys of water seepages and rain for chemical and environmental isotope contents may provide information on the whole island groundwater flow conditions, in spite of remaining geological and hydrogeological uncertainties. New data from Easter Island (Isla de Pascua), in the Pacific Ocean, are considered. Whether Easter Island has a central low permeability volcanic “core” sustaining an elevated water table remains unknown. Average recharge is estimated at 300-400 mm/year, with a low salinity of 15-50 mg/L Cl. There is an apron of highly permeable volcanics that extends to the coast. The salinity of near-the-coast wells, >1,000 mg/L Cl, is marine in origin. This is the result of a thick mixing zone of island groundwater and encroached seawater, locally enhanced by upconings below pumping wells. This conceptual model explains what is observed, in the absence of inland boreholes and springs.

  2. An Integrated Hydrologic Bayesian Multi-Model Combination Framework: Confronting Input, parameter and model structural uncertainty in Hydrologic Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Ajami, N K; Duan, Q; Sorooshian, S

    2006-05-05

    This paper presents a new technique--Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) to account for the major uncertainties of hydrologic rainfall-runoff predictions explicitly. The uncertainties from the input (forcing) data--mainly the precipitation observations and from the model parameters are reduced through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme named Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) algorithm which has been extended to include a precipitation error model. Afterwards, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) scheme is employed to further improve the prediction skill and uncertainty estimation using multiple model output. A series of case studies using three rainfall-runoff models to predict the streamflow in the Leaf River basin, Mississippi are used to examine the necessity and usefulness of this technique. The results suggests that ignoring either input forcings error or model structural uncertainty will lead to unrealistic model simulations and their associated uncertainty bounds which does not consistently capture and represent the real-world behavior of the watershed.

  3. Linking hydrological modeling and paleolimnological records for a better understanding of climate-hydrosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biskop, Sophie; Fink, Manfred; Fürstenberg, Sascha; Haberzettl, Torsten; Kasper, Thomas; Frenzel, Peter

    2016-04-01

    On the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where lake monitoring data are sparse, lacustrine systems, especially terminal lakes, act as sensitive indicators of climate variability, storing climatic and environmental information within their sediments. Thus, lake sediments are important archives for the reconstruction of hydrological changes and related climate conditions on decadal to millennial time scales. From a large number of lacustrine records on the TP, high lake levels were reconstructed for the Early Holocene, which are assumed to be related to a period climatically wetter than today. This study is the first attempt to integrate such paleoclimatic evidences from Tibetan lakes into hydrological modeling attempts to establish a quantitative reconstruction of climate variations. For the large lake Tangra Yumco (southern-central Tibetan Plateau) a high lake level indicated by an erosional terrace of 181 to 183 m above the recent lake level was dated to 8.5 ka. To maintain this high stand allowing forming a distinct lake level terrace, certain climatic conditions are needed. Considering the paleo-lake extension of Tangra Yumco and nearby lake Xuru Co, the hydrological model developed and evaluated for present-day conditions was run through several scenarios of precipitation and temperature changes. The High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) atmospheric data set for the period 2001-2010 (10 km, daily resolution) served as meteorological driver for the process-oriented conceptual hydrological model built within the Jena Adaptable Modeling System. Based on inverse modeling, this study estimates the amount of precipitation and temperature to maintain a state close to equilibrium during the lake level high-stand at 8.5 ka. This study highlights the benefits of water balance simulations by combining paleolake records and synthetic climates derived from atmospheric model data, in order to deepen the understanding of the response of hydrological systems to climate variability.

  4. What is recovery? A conceptual model and explication.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, N; Greenley, D

    2001-04-01

    This paper describes a conceptual model of recovery from mental illness developed to aid the state of Wisconsin in moving toward its goal of developing a "recovery-oriented" mental health system. In the model, recovery refers to both internal conditions experienced by persons who describe themselves as being in recovery--hope, healing, empowerment, and connection--and external conditions that facilitate recovery--implementation of the principle of human rights, a positive culture of healing, and recovery-oriented services. The aim of the model is to link the abstract concepts that define recovery with specific strategies that systems, agencies, and individuals can use to facilitate it.

  5. Assessing model state and forecasts variation in hydrologic data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuel, Jos; Coulibaly, Paulin; Dumedah, Gift; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2014-05-01

    Data assimilation (DA) has been widely used in hydrological models to improve model state and subsequent streamflow estimates. However, for poor or non-existent state observations, the state estimation in hydrological DA can be problematic, leading to inaccurate streamflow updates. This study evaluates the soil moisture and flow variations and forecasts by assimilating streamflow and soil moisture. Three approaches of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) with dual state-parameter estimation are applied: (1) streamflow assimilation, (2) soil moistue assimilation, and (3) combined assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow. The assimilation approaches are evaluated using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model in the Spencer Creek catchment in southern Ontario, Canada. The results show that there are significant differences in soil moisture variations and streamflow estimates when the three assimilation approaches were applied. In the streamflow assimilation, soil moisture states were markedly distorted, particularly soil moisture of lower soil layer; whereas, in the soil moisture assimilation, streamflow estimates are inaccurate. The combined assimilation of streamflow and soil moisture provides more accurate forecasts of both soil moisture and streamflow, particularly for shorter lead times. The combined approach has the flexibility to account for model adjustment through the time variation of parameters together with state variables when soil moisture and streamflow observations are integrated into the assimilation procedure. This evaluation is important for the application of DA methods to simultaneously estimate soil moisture states and watershed response and forecasts.

  6. Hydrological modeling in swelling/shrinking peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camporese, M.; Ferraris, S.; Putti, M.; Salandin, P.; Teatini, P.

    2006-06-01

    Peatlands respond to natural hydrologic cycles of precipitation and evapotranspiration with reversible deformations due to variations of water content in both the unsaturated and saturated zone. This phenomenon results in short-term vertical displacements of the soil surface that superimpose to the irreversible long-term subsidence naturally occurring in drained cropped peatlands because of bio-oxidation of the organic matter. These processes cause changes in the peat structure, in particular, soil density and void ratio. The consequential changes in the hydrological parameters need to be incorporated in water flow dynamical models. In this paper, we present a new constitutive relationship for the soil shrinkage characteristic (SSC) in peats by describing the variation of porosity with moisture content. This model, based on simple physical considerations, is valid for both anisotropic and isotropic three-dimensional peat deformations. The capability of the proposed SSC to accurately describe the deformation dynamics has been assessed by comparison against a set of laboratory experimental results recently published. The constitutive relationship has been implemented into a Richards' equation-based numerical code and applied for the simulation of the peat soil dynamics as observed in a peatland south of the Venice Lagoon, Italy, in an ad hoc field experiment where the relevant parameters are continuously measured. The modeling results match well a large set of field data encompassing a period of more than 50 days and demonstrate that the proposed approach allows for a reliable reproduction of the soil vertical displacement dynamics as well as the hydrological behavior in terms of, for example, water flow, moisture content, and suction.

  7. Spatial interpolation schemes of daily precipitation for hydrologic modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M.; Rajagopalan, B.; Leavesley, G.

    2012-01-01

    Distributed hydrologic models typically require spatial estimates of precipitation interpolated from sparsely located observational points to the specific grid points. We compare and contrast the performance of regression-based statistical methods for the spatial estimation of precipitation in two hydrologically different basins and confirmed that widely used regression-based estimation schemes fail to describe the realistic spatial variability of daily precipitation field. The methods assessed are: (1) inverse distance weighted average; (2) multiple linear regression (MLR); (3) climatological MLR; and (4) locally weighted polynomial regression (LWP). In order to improve the performance of the interpolations, the authors propose a two-step regression technique for effective daily precipitation estimation. In this simple two-step estimation process, precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model before estimate the amount of precipitation separately on wet days. This process generated the precipitation occurrence, amount, and spatial correlation effectively. A distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) was used for the impact analysis in daily time step simulation. Multiple simulations suggested noticeable differences between the input alternatives generated by three different interpolation schemes. Differences are shown in overall simulation error against the observations, degree of explained variability, and seasonal volumes. Simulated streamflows also showed different characteristics in mean, maximum, minimum, and peak flows. Given the same parameter optimization technique, LWP input showed least streamflow error in Alapaha basin and CMLR input showed least error (still very close to LWP) in Animas basin. All of the two-step interpolation inputs resulted in lower streamflow error compared to the directly interpolated inputs. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  8. Integrated groundwater-surface water modeling at the neighborhood scale in urbanized hydrologic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, M.; Welty, C.; Miller, A. J.; Cole, J.

    2013-12-01

    Modification of the hydrologic cycle by urban development is influenced by fine-scale spatial characteristics of cut-and-fill topography, road networks, and subsurface utilities. To address impacts on both groundwater and surface water in an integrated manner, we are using ParFlow, a parallel distributed watershed model, to conduct high-resolution simulations. We are applying ParFlow across six watershed subbasins with drainage areas of 0.3-0.6 km2 using a horizontal grid resolution of 10 m and vertical resolution of 1 m. Sites have been selected to represent a range of development intensity, age, and stormwater management practices, and each is instrumented for stage and discharge. A LIDAR-derived DEM defines model topography, and an orthoimagery and LIDAR-derived land cover classification from U. Vermont is used to develop model surface hydrologic properties. In some cases, portions of the watershed divide modified by large infrastructure elements, such as freeways, roads, and stormwater features, pose difficulties to overland flow routing within the model and to watershed delineation. In these cases, additional information, including the location of stormwater infrastructure, has been used to modify the DEM and represent where surface flow paths follow the storm drain network instead of topography. Results of these methods have improved estimation of domain extent and flow paths in overland flow tests of these basins. Boundary and initial conditions have been selected for each basin using legacy well data and a conceptual model of the Piedmont physiographic province hydrogeology. Steady-state simulations have been conducted in some cases to help refine model boundary conditions. Model spin-up has been conducted using surface forcing (P and ET) for the years 2008-2009 from NLDAS2 dataset. Ongoing analysis is focused on modeling the impact of development patterns and type of stormwater management. Challenges related to applying a coupled model in an urban setting

  9. Conceptual Model of Quantities, Units, Dimensions, and Values

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rouquette, Nicolas F.; DeKoenig, Hans-Peter; Burkhart, Roger; Espinoza, Huascar

    2011-01-01

    JPL collaborated with experts from industry and other organizations to develop a conceptual model of quantities, units, dimensions, and values based on the current work of the ISO 80000 committee revising the International System of Units & Quantities based on the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). By providing support for ISO 80000 in SysML via the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM), this conceptual model provides, for the first time, a standard-based approach for addressing issues of unit coherence and dimensional analysis into the practice of systems engineering with SysML-based tools. This conceptual model provides support for two kinds of analyses specified in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM): coherence of units as well as of systems of units, and dimension analysis of systems of quantities. To provide a solid and stable foundation, the model for defining quantities, units, dimensions, and values in SysML is explicitly based on the concepts defined in VIM. At the same time, the model library is designed in such a way that extensions to the ISQ (International System of Quantities) and SI Units (Systeme International d Unites) can be represented, as well as any alternative systems of quantities and units. The model library can be used to support SysML user models in various ways. A simple approach is to define and document libraries of reusable systems of units and quantities for reuse across multiple projects, and to link units and quantity kinds from these libraries to Unit and QuantityKind stereotypes defined in SysML user models.

  10. Life cycle cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ebeling, Charles

    1993-01-01

    This paper documents progress to date by the University of Dayton on the development of a life cycle cost model for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of a life cycle cost model. Cost categories are initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. The focus will be on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the life cycle costing model include continual support and upgrade of the R&M model. The primary result of the completed research will be a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely cost analysis in support of the conceptual design activities. The major objectives of this research are: to obtain and to develop improved methods for estimating manpower, spares, software and hardware costs, facilities costs, and other cost categories as identified by NASA personnel; to construct a life cycle cost model of a space transportation system for budget exercises and performance-cost trade-off analysis during the conceptual and development stages; to continue to support modifications and enhancements to the R&M model; and to continue to assist in the development of a simulation model to provide an integrated view of the operations and support of the proposed system.

  11. Time Domain Transformations to Improve Hydrologic Model Consistency: Parameterization in Flow-Corrected Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, T. J.; Marshall, L. A.; McGlynn, B. L.

    2015-12-01

    Streamflow modeling is highly complex. Beyond the identification and mapping of dominant runoff processes to mathematical models, additional challenges are posed by the switching of dominant streamflow generation mechanisms temporally and dynamic catchment responses to precipitation inputs based on antecedent conditions. As a result, model calibration is required to obtain parameter values that produce acceptable simulations of the streamflow hydrograph. Typical calibration approaches assign equal weight to all observations to determine the best fit over the simulation period. However, the objective function can be biased toward (i.e., implicitly weight) certain parts of the hydrograph (e.g., high streamflows). Data transformations (e.g., logarithmic or square root) scale the magnitude of the observations and are commonly used in the calibration process to reduce implicit weighting or better represent assumptions about the model residuals. Here, we consider a time domain data transformation rather than the more common data domain approaches. Flow-corrected time was previously employed in the transit time modeling literature. Conceptually, it stretches time during high streamflow and compresses time during low streamflow periods. Therefore, streamflow is dynamically weighted in the time domain, with greater weight assigned to periods with larger hydrologic flux. Here, we explore the utility of the flow-corrected time transformation in improving model performance of the Catchment Connectivity Model. Model process fidelity was assessed directly using shallow groundwater connectivity data collected at Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest. Our analysis highlights the impact of data transformations on model consistency and parameter sensitivity.

  12. A Systems Perspective on Situation Awareness I: Conceptual Framework, Modeling, and Quantitative Measurement

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-05-01

    A Systems Perspective on Situation Awareness I: Conceptual Framework , Modeling, and Quantitative Measurement Alex Kirlik (University of...I: Conceptual Framework , Modeling, and Quantitative Measurement 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...Systems Perspective on Situation Awareness I: Conceptual Framework , Modeling, and Quantitative Measurement ALEX KIRLIK Institute of Aviation

  13. Applying Human Capital Management to Model Manpower Readiness: A Conceptual Framework

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-12-01

    CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TO MODEL MANPOWER READINESS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK by Pert Chin Ngin December 2005 Associate Advisors: William R...Management to Model Manpower Readiness: A Conceptual Framework 6. AUTHOR(S) Pert Chin Ngin 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S...distribution is unlimited. APPLYING HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT TO MODEL MANPOWER READINESS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Pert Chin Ngin MAJOR, Republic of

  14. CROSS-CULTURAL VALIDITY OF A SPHERICAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR PARENT BEHAVIOR.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    SCHAEFER, EARL S.; AND OTHERS

    THE CROSS-CULTURAL VALIDITY OF AN EVOLVING CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR PARENT BEHAVIOR WAS INVESTIGATED. PREVIOUS RESEARCH STUDIES SUGGEST THAT THE PARENT BEHAVIOR DIMENSIONS OF SEVERAL CONCEPTUAL MODELS COULD BE INTEGRATED BY VISUALIZING THESE DIMENSIONS AS PLOTTED ON THE SURFACE OF A SPHERE. THE PROPOSED SPHERICAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL WAS OBTAINED USING…

  15. Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

    2011-12-01

    Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

  16. Hydrologic behaviour of the Lake of Monate (Italy): a parsimonious modelling strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomesani, Giulia; Soligno, Irene; Castellarin, Attilio; Baratti, Emanuele; Cervi, Federico; Montanari, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    The Lake of Monate (province of Varese, Northern Italy), is a unique example of ecosystem in equilibrium. The lake water quality is deemed excellent notwithstanding the intensive agricultural cultivation, industrial assets and mining activities characterising the surrounding areas. The lake has a true touristic vocation and is the only swimmable water body of the province of Varese, which counts several natural lakes. Lake of Monate has no tributary and its overall watershed area is equal to c.a. 6.6 km2 including the lake surface (i.e. 2.6 km2), of which 3.3 out of c.a. 4.0 km2 belong to the topographical watershed, while the remaining 0.7 km2 belong to the underground watershed. The latter is larger than the topographical watershed due to the presence of moraine formations on top of the limestone bedrock. The local administration recently promoted an intensive environmental monitoring campaign that aims to reach a better understanding of the hydrology of the lake and the subsurface water fluxes. The monitoring campaign started in October 2013 and, as a result, several meteoclimatic and hydrologic data have been collected up to now at daily and hourly timescales. Our study focuses on a preliminary representation of the hydrological behaviour of the lake through a modified version of HyMOD, a conceptual 5-parameter lumped rainfall-runoff model based on the probability-distributed soil storage capacity. The modified model is a semi-distributed application of HyMOD that uses the same five parameters of the original version and simulates the rainfall-runoff transformation for the whole lake watershed at daily time scale in terms of: direct precipitation on, and evaporation from, the lake surface; overall lake inflow, by separating the runoff component (topographic watershed) from the groundwater component (overall watershed); lake water-level oscillation; streamflow at the lake outlet. We used the first year of hydrometeorological observations as calibration data and

  17. Integrating O/S models during conceptual design, part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ebeling, Charles E.

    1994-01-01

    The University of Dayton is pleased to submit this report to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Langley Research Center, which integrates a set of models for determining operational capabilities and support requirements during the conceptual design of proposed space systems. This research provides for the integration of the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model, both new and existing simulation models, and existing operations and support (O&S) costing equations in arriving at a complete analysis methodology. Details concerning the R&M model and the O&S costing model may be found in previous reports accomplished under this grant (NASA Research Grant NAG1-1327). In the process of developing this comprehensive analysis approach, significant enhancements were made to the R&M model, updates to the O&S costing model were accomplished, and a new simulation model developed. This is the 1st part of a 3 part technical report.

  18. Small-scale Rainfall Challenges Tested with Semi-distributed and Distributed Hydrological Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichiba, Abdellah; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Gires, Auguste; Schertzer, Daniel; Bompard, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Nowadays, there is a growing interest on small-scale rainfall information, provided by weather radars, to be used in urban water management and decision-making. Indeed, it helps to better understand the essential interactions between natural and man-made urban environments, both being complex systems. However the integration of this information in hydrological models remains a big challenge. In fact, urban water managers often rely on lumped or semi-distributed models with much coarser data resolution. The scope of this work is to investigate the sensitivity of two hydrological models to small-scale rainfall, and their potential improvements to integrate wholly the small-scale information. The case study selected to perform this study is a small urban catchment (245 ha), located at Val-de-Marne county (southeast of Paris, France). Investigations were conducted using either CANOE model, a semi-distributed conceptual model that is widely used in France for urban modeling, or a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (www hmco-dev.enpc.fr/Tools-Training/Tools/Multi-Hydro.php). Initially, in CANOE model the catchment was divided into 9 sub-catchments with size ranging from 1ha to 76ha. A refinement process was conduced in the framework of this investigation in order to improve the model resolution by considering higher number of smaller sub-catchments. The new configuration consists of 44 sub-catchments with size ranging from 1ha-14ha. The Multi-Hydro modeling approach consists on rasterizing the catchment information to a regular spatial grid of a resolution chosen by the user. Each pixel is then affected by specific information, e.g., a unique land type per pixel, for which hydrological and physical properties are set. First of all, both models were validated with respect to real flow measurements using three types of rainfall data: (1) point measurement data coming form the Sucy-en-Brie rain gauge; (2) Meteo

  19. Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

    2014-09-01

    Spatially distributed models are popular tools in hydrology claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for inputs of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography and artificial drainage. We translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to observed groundwater levels and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the the groundwater level predictions were not accurate enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. Groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial saturation patterns did not correspond to those estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a model that

  20. Improving conceptual models of water and carbon transfer through peat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenzie, Jeffery M.; Siegel, Donald I.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Baird, Andrew J.; Belyea, Lisa R.; Comas, Xavier; Reeve, A.S.; Slater, Lee D.

    2009-01-01

    Northern peatlands store 500 × 1015 g of organic carbon and are very sensitive to climate change. There is a strong conceptual model of sources, sinks, and pathways of carbon within peatlands, but challenges remain both in understanding the hydrogeology and the linkages between carbon cycling and peat pore water flow. In this chapter, research findings from the glacial Lake Agassiz peatlands are used to develop a conceptual framework for peatland hydrogeology and identify four challenges related to northern peatlands yet to be addressed: (1) develop a better understanding of the extent and net impact of climate-driven groundwater flushing in peatlands; (2) quantify the complexities of heterogeneity on pore water flow and, in particular, reconcile contradictions between peatland hydrogeologic interpretations and isotopic data; (3) understand the hydrogeologic implications of free-phase methane production, entrapment, and release in peatlands; and (4) quantify the impact of arctic and subarctic warming on peatland hydrogeology and its linkage to carbon cycling.

  1. Conceptualization of Karstic Aquifer with Multiple Outlets Using a Dual Porosity Model.

    PubMed

    Hosseini, Seiyed Mossa; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2017-02-16

    In this study, two conceptual models, the classic reservoir (CR) model and exchange reservoirs model embedded by dual porosity approach (DPR) are developed for simulation of karst aquifer functioning drained by multiple outlets. The performances of two developed models are demonstrated at a less developed karstic aquifer with three spring outlets located in Zagros Mountain in the south-west of Iran using 22-years of daily data. During the surface recharge, a production function based on water mass balance is implemented for computing the time series of surface recharge to the karst formations. The efficiency of both models has been assessed for simulation of daily spring discharge during the recession and also surface recharge periods. Results indicate that both CR and DPR models are capable of simulating the ordinates of spring hydrographs which drainage less developed karstic aquifer. However, the goodness of fit criteria indicates outperformance of DPR model for simulation of total hydrograph ordinates. In addition, the DPR model is capable of quantifying hydraulic properties of two hydrologically connected overlapping continua conduits network and fissure matrix which lays important foundations for the mining operation and water resource management whereas homogeneous model representations of the karstic subsurface (e.g., the CR) do not work accurately in the karstic environment.

  2. Identification of hydrological model parameter variation using ensemble Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Li, Zejun; Wang, Dingbao

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological model parameters play an important role in the ability of model prediction. In a stationary context, parameters of hydrological models are treated as constants; however, model parameters may vary with time under climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model (TWBM) by assimilating the runoff observations. Through a synthetic experiment, the proposed method is evaluated with time-invariant (i.e., constant) parameters and different types of parameter variations, including trend, abrupt change and periodicity. Various levels of observation uncertainty are designed to examine the performance of the EnKF. The results show that the EnKF can successfully capture the temporal variations of the model parameters. The application to the Wudinghe basin shows that the water storage capacity (SC) of the TWBM model has an apparent increasing trend during the period from 1958 to 2000. The identified temporal variation of SC is explained by land use and land cover changes due to soil and water conservation measures. In contrast, the application to the Tongtianhe basin shows that the estimated SC has no significant variation during the simulation period of 1982-2013, corresponding to the relatively stationary catchment properties. The evapotranspiration parameter (C) has temporal variations while no obvious change patterns exist. The proposed method provides an effective tool for quantifying the temporal variations of the model parameters, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of model simulations and forecasts.

  3. Adaptable Web Modules to Stimulate Active Learning in Engineering Hydrology using Data and Model Simulations of Three Regional Hydrologic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habib, E. H.; Tarboton, D. G.; Lall, U.; Bodin, M.; Rahill-Marier, B.; Chimmula, S.; Meselhe, E. A.; Ali, A.; Williams, D.; Ma, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The hydrologic community has long recognized the need for broad reform in hydrologic education. A paradigm shift is critically sought in undergraduate hydrology and water resource education by adopting context-rich, student-centered, and active learning strategies. Hydrologists currently deal with intricate issues rooted in complex natural ecosystems containing a multitude of interconnected processes. Advances in the multi-disciplinary field include observational settings such as Critical Zone and Water, Sustainability and Climate Observatories, Hydrologic Information Systems, instrumentation and modeling methods. These research advances theory and practices call for similar efforts and improvements in hydrologic education. The typical, text-book based approach in hydrologic education has focused on specific applications and/or unit processes associated with the hydrologic cycle with idealizations, rather than the contextual relations in the physical processes and the spatial and temporal dynamics connecting climate and ecosystems. An appreciation of the natural variability of these processes will lead to graduates with the ability to develop independent learning skills and understanding. This appreciation cannot be gained in curricula where field components such as observational and experimental data are deficient. These types of data are also critical when using simulation models to create environments that support this type of learning. Additional sources of observations in conjunction with models and field data are key to students understanding of the challenges associated with using models to represent such complex systems. Recent advances in scientific visualization and web-based technologies provide new opportunities for the development of active learning techniques utilizing ongoing research. The overall goal of the current study is to develop visual, case-based, data and simulation driven learning experiences to instructors and students through a web

  4. Design Oriented Structural Modeling for Airplane Conceptual Design Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Livne, Eli

    1999-01-01

    The main goal for research conducted with the support of this grant was to develop design oriented structural optimization methods for the conceptual design of airplanes. Traditionally in conceptual design airframe weight is estimated based on statistical equations developed over years of fitting airplane weight data in data bases of similar existing air- planes. Utilization of such regression equations for the design of new airplanes can be justified only if the new air-planes use structural technology similar to the technology on the airplanes in those weight data bases. If any new structural technology is to be pursued or any new unconventional configurations designed the statistical weight equations cannot be used. In such cases any structural weight estimation must be based on rigorous "physics based" structural analysis and optimization of the airframes under consideration. Work under this grant progressed to explore airframe design-oriented structural optimization techniques along two lines of research: methods based on "fast" design oriented finite element technology and methods based on equivalent plate / equivalent shell models of airframes, in which the vehicle is modelled as an assembly of plate and shell components, each simulating a lifting surface or nacelle / fuselage pieces. Since response to changes in geometry are essential in conceptual design of airplanes, as well as the capability to optimize the shape itself, research supported by this grant sought to develop efficient techniques for parametrization of airplane shape and sensitivity analysis with respect to shape design variables. Towards the end of the grant period a prototype automated structural analysis code designed to work with the NASA Aircraft Synthesis conceptual design code ACS= was delivered to NASA Ames.

  5. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints