A scan statistic for binary outcome based on hypergeometric probability model, with an application to detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis.

PubMed

Zhao, Xing; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Feng, Zijian; Guo, Pengfei; He, Hongyan; Zhang, Tao; Duan, Lei; Li, Xiaosong

2013-01-01

As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.

Research Design and Statistics for Applied Linguistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hatch, Evelyn; Farhady, Hossein

An introduction to the conventions of research design and statistical analysis is presented for graduate students of applied linguistics. The chapters cover such concepts as the definition of research, variables, research designs, research report formats, sorting and displaying data, probability and hypothesis testing, comparing means,…

Space ethics to test directed panspermia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makukov, Maxim A.; shCherbak, Vladimir I.

2014-10-01

The hypothesis that Earth was intentionally seeded with life by a preceding extraterrestrial civilization is believed to be currently untestable. However, analysis of the situation where humans themselves embark on seeding other planetary systems motivated by survival and propagation of life reveals at least two ethical issues calling for specific solutions. Assuming that generally intelligence evolves ethically as it evolves technologically, the same considerations might be applied to test the hypothesis of directed panspermia: if life on Earth was seeded intentionally, the two ethical requirements are expected to be satisfied, what appears to be the case.

THE RELATION OF SELF-ESTEEM TO INDICES OF PERCEIVED BEHAVIORAL HOSTILITY.

DTIC Science & Technology

The Sullivanian hypothesis of a negative relationship between self - esteem and hostility was tested by intercorrelating two measures of self - esteem ...subvarieties, two dimensions and one global aspect of hostility. The negative self - esteem --hostility relationship was found to be contingent upon...the self - esteem measure, hostility instrument and dimension of hostility. The Sullivanian hypothesis applied to hostile actions and emotions in

A Cognitive Complexity Metric Applied to Cognitive Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Glenda; Halford, Graeme S.

2002-01-01

Two experiments tested predictions from a theory in which processing load depends on relational complexity (RC), the number of variables related in a single decision. Tasks from six domains (transitivity, hierarchical classification, class inclusion, cardinality, relative-clause sentence comprehension, and hypothesis testing) were administered to…

Does the Slow-Growth, High-Mortality Hypothesis Apply Below Ground?

PubMed

Hourston, James E; Bennett, Alison E; Johnson, Scott N; Gange, Alan C

2016-01-01

Belowground tri-trophic study systems present a challenging environment in which to study plant-herbivore-natural enemy interactions. For this reason, belowground examples are rarely available for testing general ecological theories. To redress this imbalance, we present, for the first time, data on a belowground tri-trophic system to test the slow growth, high mortality hypothesis. We investigated whether the differing performance of entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) in controlling the common pest black vine weevil Otiorhynchus sulcatus could be linked to differently resistant cultivars of the red raspberry Rubus idaeus. The O. sulcatus larvae recovered from R. idaeus plants showed significantly slower growth and higher mortality on the Glen Rosa cultivar, relative to the more commercially favored Glen Ample cultivar creating a convenient system for testing this hypothesis. Heterorhabditis megidis was found to be less effective at controlling O. sulcatus than Steinernema kraussei, but conformed to the hypothesis. However, S. kraussei maintained high levels of O. sulcatus mortality regardless of how larval growth was influenced by R. idaeus cultivar. We link this to direct effects that S. kraussei had on reducing O. sulcatus larval mass, indicating potential sub-lethal effects of S. kraussei, which the slow-growth, high-mortality hypothesis does not account for. Possible origins of these sub-lethal effects of EPN infection and how they may impact on a hypothesis designed and tested with aboveground predator and parasitoid systems are discussed.

The Latent Variable Approach as Applied to Transitive Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouwmeester, Samantha; Vermunt, Jeroen K.; Sijtsma, Klaas

2012-01-01

We discuss the limitations of hypothesis testing using (quasi-) experiments in the study of cognitive development and suggest latent variable modeling as a viable alternative to experimentation. Latent variable models allow testing a theory as a whole, incorporating individual differences with respect to developmental processes or abilities in the…

RANDOMIZATION PROCEDURES FOR THE ANALYSIS OF EDUCATIONAL EXPERIMENTS.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

COLLIER, RAYMOND O.

CERTAIN SPECIFIC ASPECTS OF HYPOTHESIS TESTS USED FOR ANALYSIS OF RESULTS IN RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTS WERE STUDIED--(1) THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THEORETICAL FACTOR, THAT OF PROVIDING INFORMATION ON STATISTICAL TESTS FOR CERTAIN EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS AND (2) THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE APPLIED ELEMENT, THAT OF SUPPLYING THE EXPERIMENTER WITH MACHINERY FOR…

Partial F-tests with multiply imputed data in the linear regression framework via coefficient of determination.

PubMed

Chaurasia, Ashok; Harel, Ofer

2015-02-10

Tests for regression coefficients such as global, local, and partial F-tests are common in applied research. In the framework of multiple imputation, there are several papers addressing tests for regression coefficients. However, for simultaneous hypothesis testing, the existing methods are computationally intensive because they involve calculation with vectors and (inversion of) matrices. In this paper, we propose a simple method based on the scalar entity, coefficient of determination, to perform (global, local, and partial) F-tests with multiply imputed data. The proposed method is evaluated using simulated data and applied to suicide prevention data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The frequentist implications of optional stopping on Bayesian hypothesis tests.

PubMed

Sanborn, Adam N; Hills, Thomas T

2014-04-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most commonly used statistical methodology in psychology. The probability of achieving a value as extreme or more extreme than the statistic obtained from the data is evaluated, and if it is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected. However, because common experimental practice often clashes with the assumptions underlying NHST, these calculated probabilities are often incorrect. Most commonly, experimenters use tests that assume that sample sizes are fixed in advance of data collection but then use the data to determine when to stop; in the limit, experimenters can use data monitoring to guarantee that the null hypothesis will be rejected. Bayesian hypothesis testing (BHT) provides a solution to these ills because the stopping rule used is irrelevant to the calculation of a Bayes factor. In addition, there are strong mathematical guarantees on the frequentist properties of BHT that are comforting for researchers concerned that stopping rules could influence the Bayes factors produced. Here, we show that these guaranteed bounds have limited scope and often do not apply in psychological research. Specifically, we quantitatively demonstrate the impact of optional stopping on the resulting Bayes factors in two common situations: (1) when the truth is a combination of the hypotheses, such as in a heterogeneous population, and (2) when a hypothesis is composite-taking multiple parameter values-such as the alternative hypothesis in a t-test. We found that, for these situations, while the Bayesian interpretation remains correct regardless of the stopping rule used, the choice of stopping rule can, in some situations, greatly increase the chance of experimenters finding evidence in the direction they desire. We suggest ways to control these frequentist implications of stopping rules on BHT.

Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

PubMed

Yen, Yu-Min

2013-01-01

Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR), an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

Selection against small males in utero: a test of the Wells hypothesis.

PubMed

Catalano, R; Goodman, J; Margerison-Zilko, C E; Saxton, K B; Anderson, E; Epstein, M

2012-04-01

The argument that women in stressful environments spontaneously abort their least fit fetuses enjoys wide dissemination despite the fact that several of its most intuitive predictions remain untested. The literature includes no tests, for example, of the hypothesis that these mechanisms select against small for gestational age (SGA) males. We apply time-series modeling to 4.9 million California male term births to test the hypothesis that the rate of SGA infants in 1096 weekly birth cohorts varies inversely with labor market contraction, a known stressor of contemporary populations. We find support for the hypothesis that small size becomes less frequent among term male infants when the labor market contracts. Our findings contribute to the evidence supporting selection in utero. They also suggest that research into the association between maternal stress and adverse birth outcomes should acknowledge the possibility that fetal loss may affect findings and their interpretation. Strengths of our analyses include the large number and size of our birth cohorts and our control for autocorrelation. Weaknesses include that we, like nearly all researchers in the field, have no direct measure of fetal loss.

Hypothesis testing in functional linear regression models with Neyman's truncation and wavelet thresholding for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaowei; Nie, Kun

2008-03-15

Longitudinal data sets in biomedical research often consist of large numbers of repeated measures. In many cases, the trajectories do not look globally linear or polynomial, making it difficult to summarize the data or test hypotheses using standard longitudinal data analysis based on various linear models. An alternative approach is to apply the approaches of functional data analysis, which directly target the continuous nonlinear curves underlying discretely sampled repeated measures. For the purposes of data exploration, many functional data analysis strategies have been developed based on various schemes of smoothing, but fewer options are available for making causal inferences regarding predictor-outcome relationships, a common task seen in hypothesis-driven medical studies. To compare groups of curves, two testing strategies with good power have been proposed for high-dimensional analysis of variance: the Fourier-based adaptive Neyman test and the wavelet-based thresholding test. Using a smoking cessation clinical trial data set, this paper demonstrates how to extend the strategies for hypothesis testing into the framework of functional linear regression models (FLRMs) with continuous functional responses and categorical or continuous scalar predictors. The analysis procedure consists of three steps: first, apply the Fourier or wavelet transform to the original repeated measures; then fit a multivariate linear model in the transformed domain; and finally, test the regression coefficients using either adaptive Neyman or thresholding statistics. Since a FLRM can be viewed as a natural extension of the traditional multiple linear regression model, the development of this model and computational tools should enhance the capacity of medical statistics for longitudinal data.

Error Rates in Measuring Teacher and School Performance Based on Student Test Score Gains. NCEE 2010-4004

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.

2010-01-01

This paper addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using realistic performance measurement system schemes based on hypothesis testing, we develop error rate formulas based on OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators.…

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

1997-01-01

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing.

PubMed

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore "statistically significant") P value, but a "real" estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another.

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing

PubMed Central

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore “statistically significant”) P value, but a “real” estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another. PMID:27057011

One-way ANOVA based on interval information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hesamian, Gholamreza

2016-08-01

This paper deals with extending the one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to the case where the observed data are represented by closed intervals rather than real numbers. In this approach, first a notion of interval random variable is introduced. Especially, a normal distribution with interval parameters is introduced to investigate hypotheses about the equality of interval means or test the homogeneity of interval variances assumption. Moreover, the least significant difference (LSD method) for investigating multiple comparison of interval means is developed when the null hypothesis about the equality of means is rejected. Then, at a given interval significance level, an index is applied to compare the interval test statistic and the related interval critical value as a criterion to accept or reject the null interval hypothesis of interest. Finally, the method of decision-making leads to some degrees to accept or reject the interval hypotheses. An applied example will be used to show the performance of this method.

Methods and methodology for FTIR spectral correction of channel spectra and uncertainty, applied to ferrocene.

PubMed

Islam, M T; Trevorah, R M; Appadoo, D R T; Best, S P; Chantler, C T

2017-04-15

We present methodology for the first FTIR measurements of ferrocene using dilute wax solutions for dispersion and to preserve non-crystallinity; a new method for removal of channel spectra interference for high quality data; and a consistent approach for the robust estimation of a defined uncertainty for advanced structural χ r 2 analysis and mathematical hypothesis testing. While some of these issues have been investigated previously, the combination of novel approaches gives markedly improved results. Methods for addressing these in the presence of a modest signal and how to quantify the quality of the data irrespective of preprocessing for subsequent hypothesis testing are applied to the FTIR spectra of Ferrocene (Fc) and deuterated ferrocene (dFc, Fc-d 10 ) collected at the THz/Far-IR beam-line of the Australian Synchrotron at operating temperatures of 7K through 353K. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods and methodology for FTIR spectral correction of channel spectra and uncertainty, applied to ferrocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M. T.; Trevorah, R. M.; Appadoo, D. R. T.; Best, S. P.; Chantler, C. T.

2017-04-01

We present methodology for the first FTIR measurements of ferrocene using dilute wax solutions for dispersion and to preserve non-crystallinity; a new method for removal of channel spectra interference for high quality data; and a consistent approach for the robust estimation of a defined uncertainty for advanced structural χr2 analysis and mathematical hypothesis testing. While some of these issues have been investigated previously, the combination of novel approaches gives markedly improved results. Methods for addressing these in the presence of a modest signal and how to quantify the quality of the data irrespective of preprocessing for subsequent hypothesis testing are applied to the FTIR spectra of Ferrocene (Fc) and deuterated ferrocene (dFc, Fc-d10) collected at the THz/Far-IR beam-line of the Australian Synchrotron at operating temperatures of 7 K through 353 K.

On the widespread use of the Corrsin hypothesis in diffusion theories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tautz, R. C.; Shalchi, A.

2010-12-15

In the past four decades, several nonlinear theories have been developed to describe (i) the motion of charged test particles through a turbulent magnetized plasma and (ii) the random walk of magnetic field lines. In many such theories, the so-called Corrsin independence hypothesis has been applied to enforce analytical tractability. In this note, it is shown that the Corrsin hypothesis is part of most nonlinear diffusion theories. In some cases, the Corrsin approximation is somewhat hidden, while in other cases a different name is used for the same approach. It is shown that even the researchers who criticized the applicationmore » of this hypothesis have used it in their nonlinear diffusion theories. It is hoped that the present article will eliminate the recently caused confusion about the applicability and validity of the Corrsin hypothesis.« less

Planar Laser Imaging of Scattering and Fluorescence of Zooplankton Feeding in Layers of Phytoplankton in situ

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-30

planktonic ecosystems. OBJECTIVES Our objectives in this work are to 1) visualize and quantify herbivorous copepod feeding in the laboratory...and 2) to apply these methods in the field to observe the dynamics of copepod feeding in situ. In particular we intend to test the “feeding sorties...hypothesis vs. the “in situ feeding” hypothesis regarding the location and timing of copepod feeding and vertical migration. APPROACH Previous

Differential Effect of Correct Name Translation on Human and Automated Judgments of Translation Acceptability: A Pilot Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

in the Input Hypothesis (IH) of Krashen (1981) and the Expectancy Hypothesis (EH) of Oller and Richard-Amato (1983). Situations where readers attempt...hypothesizing what will come next can be conceptualized in terms of grammar-based expectancies ( Oller , 1983). New elements are interspersed with known...Testing. Applied Language Learning 1993, 4. Clifford, R.; Granoien, N.; Jones, D. A.; Shen, W.; Weinstein, C. J . The Effect of Text Difficulty on

Spatial Abilities in an Elective Course of Applied Anatomy after a Problem-Based Learning Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langlois, Jean; Wells, George A.; Lecourtois, Marc; Bergeron, Germain; Yetisir, Elizabeth; Martin, Marcel

2009-01-01

A concern on the level of anatomy knowledge reached after a problem-based learning curriculum has been documented in the literature. Spatial anatomy, arguably the highest level in anatomy knowledge, has been related to spatial abilities. Our first objective was to test the hypothesis that residents are interested in a course of applied anatomy…

The impact of ageing on health care expenditures: a study of steepening.

PubMed

Gregersen, Fredrik Alexander

2014-12-01

Some researchers claim that health care expenditures for older people are growing faster than for the rest of the population. This process is referred to as steepening. The aim of this paper is to test steepening, applying new data and revised methods. Furthermore, we explain the connection between the terms red herring hypothesis, i.e., that time to death and not age per se drives the health care expenditures, and steepening. We also present the mechanisms that may induce steepening, as presented in the literature. When testing steepening, we apply data from all inpatient stays in somatic hospitals in Norway in the period 1998-2009, i.e., the data has no self-selection and covers the entire population of Norway (5 million). Our analysis does not reject steepening, with the exception of the 0-year-olds. The results also hold when controlling for mortality-related expenditures. Furthermore, we observe an increase in expenditures for the 0-year-olds. Finally, we find increasing mortality-related expenditures over time. We find the link between steepening and the red herring hypothesis to be vague, and we find steepening and the red herring hypothesis to be independent.

Administrative Attribution Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frasher, James M.; Frasher, Ramona S.

1981-01-01

Hypothesizes that the growing body of empirical data concerning attribution theory offers insight into the administrative process. To stimulate research to test this hypothesis, presents previous relevant research and a theory entitled Administrative Attribution Theory. Research questions applying the theory to educational administration are…

Were inefficient mitochondrial haplogroups selected during migrations of modern humans? A test using modular kinetic analysis of coupling in mitochondria from cybrid cell lines.

PubMed

Amo, Taku; Brand, Martin D

2007-06-01

We introduce a general test of the bioenergetic importance of mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) variants: modular kinetic analysis of oxidative phosphorylation in mitochondria from cybrid cells with constant nuclear DNA but different mtDNA. We have applied this test to the hypothesis [Ruiz-Pesini, Mishmar, Brandon, Procaccio and Wallace (2004) Science 303, 223-226] that particular mtDNA haplogroups (specific combinations of polymorphisms) that cause lowered coupling efficiency, leading to generation of less ATP and more heat, were positively selected during radiations of modern humans into colder climates. Contrary to the predictions of this hypothesis, mitochondria from Arctic haplogroups had similar or even greater coupling efficiency than mitochondria from tropical haplogroups.

What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.

2013-01-01

This article addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using a realistic performance measurement system scheme based on hypothesis testing, the authors develop error rate formulas based on ordinary least squares and…

Long memory and multifractality: A joint test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, John; Onali, Enrico

2016-06-01

The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Our test addresses this issue by jointly estimating long memory and multifractality. The estimation and test procedures are applied to exchange rate data for 12 currencies. Among the nested model specifications that are investigated, in 11 out of 12 cases, daily returns are most appropriately characterized by a variant of the MMAR that applies a multifractal time-deformation process to NIID returns. There is no evidence of long memory.

A General Class of Test Statistics for Van Valen’s Red Queen Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Wiltshire, Jelani; Huffer, Fred W.; Parker, William C.

2014-01-01

Van Valen’s Red Queen hypothesis states that within a homogeneous taxonomic group the age is statistically independent of the rate of extinction. The case of the Red Queen hypothesis being addressed here is when the homogeneous taxonomic group is a group of similar species. Since Van Valen’s work, various statistical approaches have been used to address the relationship between taxon age and the rate of extinction. We propose a general class of test statistics that can be used to test for the effect of age on the rate of extinction. These test statistics allow for a varying background rate of extinction and attempt to remove the effects of other covariates when assessing the effect of age on extinction. No model is assumed for the covariate effects. Instead we control for covariate effects by pairing or grouping together similar species. Simulations are used to compare the power of the statistics. We apply the test statistics to data on Foram extinctions and find that age has a positive effect on the rate of extinction. A derivation of the null distribution of one of the test statistics is provided in the supplementary material. PMID:24910489

A General Class of Test Statistics for Van Valen's Red Queen Hypothesis.

PubMed

Wiltshire, Jelani; Huffer, Fred W; Parker, William C

2014-09-01

Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis states that within a homogeneous taxonomic group the age is statistically independent of the rate of extinction. The case of the Red Queen hypothesis being addressed here is when the homogeneous taxonomic group is a group of similar species. Since Van Valen's work, various statistical approaches have been used to address the relationship between taxon age and the rate of extinction. We propose a general class of test statistics that can be used to test for the effect of age on the rate of extinction. These test statistics allow for a varying background rate of extinction and attempt to remove the effects of other covariates when assessing the effect of age on extinction. No model is assumed for the covariate effects. Instead we control for covariate effects by pairing or grouping together similar species. Simulations are used to compare the power of the statistics. We apply the test statistics to data on Foram extinctions and find that age has a positive effect on the rate of extinction. A derivation of the null distribution of one of the test statistics is provided in the supplementary material.

Planar Laser Imaging of Scattering and Fluorescence of Zooplankton Feeding in Layers of Phytoplankton in situ

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-30

Planar Laser Imaging of Scattering and Fluorescence of Zooplankton Feeding in Layers of Phytoplankton in situ Peter J.S. Franks Scripps...herbivorous copepod feeding in the laboratory, and 2) to apply these methods in the field to observe the dynamics of copepod feeding in situ. In...particular we intend to test the “ feeding sorties” hypothesis vs. the “in situ feeding ” hypothesis regarding the location and timing of copepod feeding

Compensatory balance reactions during forward and backward walking on a treadmill.

PubMed

Bolton, D A E; Misiaszek, J E

2012-04-01

Previous work suggests that balance perturbations to the body opposing the direction of progression during walking lead to larger amplitude corrective reactions than perturbations concurrent with walking direction. To test this hypothesis, subjects received forward and backward perturbations applied to the pelvis through a padded harness, while walking forwards or backwards on a treadmill. Contrary to our hypothesis, the greatest responses were associated with backward perturbations regardless of the direction of walking. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selection against small males in utero: a test of the Wells hypothesis

PubMed Central

Catalano, R.; Goodman, J.; Margerison-Zilko, C.E.; Saxton, K.B.; Anderson, E.; Epstein, M.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND The argument that women in stressful environments spontaneously abort their least fit fetuses enjoys wide dissemination despite the fact that several of its most intuitive predictions remain untested. The literature includes no tests, for example, of the hypothesis that these mechanisms select against small for gestational age (SGA) males. METHODS We apply time-series modeling to 4.9 million California male term births to test the hypothesis that the rate of SGA infants in 1096 weekly birth cohorts varies inversely with labor market contraction, a known stressor of contemporary populations. RESULTS We find support for the hypothesis that small size becomes less frequent among term male infants when the labor market contracts. CONCLUSIONS Our findings contribute to the evidence supporting selection in utero. They also suggest that research into the association between maternal stress and adverse birth outcomes should acknowledge the possibility that fetal loss may affect findings and their interpretation. Strengths of our analyses include the large number and size of our birth cohorts and our control for autocorrelation. Weaknesses include that we, like nearly all researchers in the field, have no direct measure of fetal loss. PMID:22298840

Robust hypothesis tests for detecting statistical evidence of two-dimensional and three-dimensional interactions in single-molecule measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon, Christopher P.; Weiss, Lucien E.; Moerner, W. E.

2014-05-01

Experimental advances have improved the two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) spatial resolution that can be extracted from in vivo single-molecule measurements. This enables researchers to quantitatively infer the magnitude and directionality of forces experienced by biomolecules in their native environment. Situations where such force information is relevant range from mitosis to directed transport of protein cargo along cytoskeletal structures. Models commonly applied to quantify single-molecule dynamics assume that effective forces and velocity in the x ,y (or x ,y,z) directions are statistically independent, but this assumption is physically unrealistic in many situations. We present a hypothesis testing approach capable of determining if there is evidence of statistical dependence between positional coordinates in experimentally measured trajectories; if the hypothesis of independence between spatial coordinates is rejected, then a new model accounting for 2D (3D) interactions can and should be considered. Our hypothesis testing technique is robust, meaning it can detect interactions, even if the noise statistics are not well captured by the model. The approach is demonstrated on control simulations and on experimental data (directed transport of intraflagellar transport protein 88 homolog in the primary cilium).

Practical scheme for optimal measurement in quantum interferometric devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takeoka, Masahiro; Ban, Masashi; Sasaki, Masahide

2003-06-01

We apply a Kennedy-type detection scheme, which was originally proposed for a binary communications system, to interferometric sensing devices. We show that the minimum detectable perturbation of the proposed system reaches the ultimate precision bound which is predicted by quantum Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing. To provide concrete examples, we apply our interferometric scheme to phase shift detection by using coherent and squeezed probe fields.

Estuarine modeling: Does a higher grid resolution improve model performance?

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological models are useful tools to explore cause effect relationships, test hypothesis and perform management scenarios. A mathematical model, the Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), has been developed and applied to the Louisiana continental shelf of the northern ...

An Empirical Test of the Modified C Index and SII, O*NET, and DHOC Occupational Code Classifications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dik, Bryan J.; Hu, Ryan S. C.; Hansen, Jo-Ida C.

2007-01-01

The present study investigated new approaches for assessing Holland's congruence hypothesis by (a) developing and applying four sets of decision rules for assigning Holland codes of varying lengths for purposes of computing Eggerth and Andrew's modified C index; (b) testing the modified C index computed using these four approaches against Brown…

Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. N.; Patton, H. J.; Taylor, S. R.; Bonner, J. L.; Selby, N. D.

2014-03-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.

Information extraction from dynamic PS-InSAR time series using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Kerkhof, B.; Pankratius, V.; Chang, L.; van Swol, R.; Hanssen, R. F.

2017-12-01

Due to the increasing number of SAR satellites, with shorter repeat intervals and higher resolutions, SAR data volumes are exploding. Time series analyses of SAR data, i.e. Persistent Scatterer (PS) InSAR, enable the deformation monitoring of the built environment at an unprecedented scale, with hundreds of scatterers per km2, updated weekly. Potential hazards, e.g. due to failure of aging infrastructure, can be detected at an early stage. Yet, this requires the operational data processing of billions of measurement points, over hundreds of epochs, updating this data set dynamically as new data come in, and testing whether points (start to) behave in an anomalous way. Moreover, the quality of PS-InSAR measurements is ambiguous and heterogeneous, which will yield false positives and false negatives. Such analyses are numerically challenging. Here we extract relevant information from PS-InSAR time series using machine learning algorithms. We cluster (group together) time series with similar behaviour, even though they may not be spatially close, such that the results can be used for further analysis. First we reduce the dimensionality of the dataset in order to be able to cluster the data, since applying clustering techniques on high dimensional datasets often result in unsatisfying results. Our approach is to apply t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), a machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction of high-dimensional data to a 2D or 3D map, and cluster this result using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN). The results show that we are able to detect and cluster time series with similar behaviour, which is the starting point for more extensive analysis into the underlying driving mechanisms. The results of the methods are compared to conventional hypothesis testing as well as a Self-Organising Map (SOM) approach. Hypothesis testing is robust and takes the stochastic nature of the observations into account, but is time consuming. Therefore, we successively apply our machine learning approach with the hypothesis testing approach in order to benefit from both the reduced computation time of the machine learning approach as from the robust quality metrics of hypothesis testing. We acknowledge support from NASA AISTNNX15AG84G (PI V. Pankratius)

Were inefficient mitochondrial haplogroups selected during migrations of modern humans? A test using modular kinetic analysis of coupling in mitochondria from cybrid cell lines

PubMed Central

Amo, Taku; Brand, Martin D.

2007-01-01

We introduce a general test of the bioenergetic importance of mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) variants: modular kinetic analysis of oxidative phosphorylation in mitochondria from cybrid cells with constant nuclear DNA but different mtDNA. We have applied this test to the hypothesis [Ruiz-Pesini, Mishmar, Brandon, Procaccio and Wallace (2004) Science 303, 223–226] that particular mtDNA haplogroups (specific combinations of polymorphisms) that cause lowered coupling efficiency, leading to generation of less ATP and more heat, were positively selected during radiations of modern humans into colder climates. Contrary to the predictions of this hypothesis, mitochondria from Arctic haplogroups had similar or even greater coupling efficiency than mitochondria from tropical haplogroups. PMID:17355224

An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis.

PubMed

Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

An Algorithm for Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Boboc, Ioana-Andreea; Dinică, Mihai-Cristian

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). PMID:24205148

The continuum fusion theory of signal detection applied to a bi-modal fusion problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaum, A.

2011-05-01

A new formalism has been developed that produces detection algorithms for model-based problems, in which one or more parameter values is unknown. Continuum Fusion can be used to generate different flavors of algorithm for any composite hypothesis testing problem. The methodology is defined by a fusion logic that can be translated into max/min conditions. Here it is applied to a simple sensor fusion model, but one for which the generalized likelihood ratio test is intractable. By contrast, a fusion-based response to the same problem can be devised that is solvable in closed form and represents a good approximation to the GLR test.

Holland's Theory Applied to Medical Specialty Choice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borges, Nicole J.; Savickas, Mark L.; Jones, Bonnie J.

2004-01-01

The present study tested the hypothesis that medical specialties classified as technique oriented or patient oriented would be distinguished by RIASEC code, with technique-oriented specialists resembling Investigative-Realistic types and patient-oriented specialists resembling Investigative-Social types. Using longitudinal data obtained from 447…

HYPOTHESIS SETTING AND ORDER STATISTIC FOR ROBUST GENOMIC META-ANALYSIS.

PubMed

Song, Chi; Tseng, George C

2014-01-01

Meta-analysis techniques have been widely developed and applied in genomic applications, especially for combining multiple transcriptomic studies. In this paper, we propose an order statistic of p-values ( r th ordered p-value, rOP) across combined studies as the test statistic. We illustrate different hypothesis settings that detect gene markers differentially expressed (DE) "in all studies", "in the majority of studies", or "in one or more studies", and specify rOP as a suitable method for detecting DE genes "in the majority of studies". We develop methods to estimate the parameter r in rOP for real applications. Statistical properties such as its asymptotic behavior and a one-sided testing correction for detecting markers of concordant expression changes are explored. Power calculation and simulation show better performance of rOP compared to classical Fisher's method, Stouffer's method, minimum p-value method and maximum p-value method under the focused hypothesis setting. Theoretically, rOP is found connected to the naïve vote counting method and can be viewed as a generalized form of vote counting with better statistical properties. The method is applied to three microarray meta-analysis examples including major depressive disorder, brain cancer and diabetes. The results demonstrate rOP as a more generalizable, robust and sensitive statistical framework to detect disease-related markers.

Building Intuitions about Statistical Inference Based on Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane; Chance, Beth

2012-01-01

Formal inference, which makes theoretical assumptions about distributions and applies hypothesis testing procedures with null and alternative hypotheses, is notoriously difficult for tertiary students to master. The debate about whether this content should appear in Years 11 and 12 of the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" has gone on…

Bayesian hypothesis testing for human threat conditioning research: an introduction and the condir R package

PubMed Central

Krypotos, Angelos-Miltiadis; Klugkist, Irene; Engelhard, Iris M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Threat conditioning procedures have allowed the experimental investigation of the pathogenesis of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. The findings of these procedures have also provided stable foundations for the development of relevant intervention programs (e.g. exposure therapy). Statistical inference of threat conditioning procedures is commonly based on p-values and Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST). Nowadays, however, there is a growing concern about this statistical approach, as many scientists point to the various limitations of p-values and NHST. As an alternative, the use of Bayes factors and Bayesian hypothesis testing has been suggested. In this article, we apply this statistical approach to threat conditioning data. In order to enable the easy computation of Bayes factors for threat conditioning data we present a new R package named condir, which can be used either via the R console or via a Shiny application. This article provides both a non-technical introduction to Bayesian analysis for researchers using the threat conditioning paradigm, and the necessary tools for computing Bayes factors easily. PMID:29038683

[Dilemma of null hypothesis in ecological hypothesis's experiment test.

PubMed

Li, Ji

2016-06-01

Experimental test is one of the major test methods of ecological hypothesis, though there are many arguments due to null hypothesis. Quinn and Dunham (1983) analyzed the hypothesis deduction model from Platt (1964) and thus stated that there is no null hypothesis in ecology that can be strictly tested by experiments. Fisher's falsificationism and Neyman-Pearson (N-P)'s non-decisivity inhibit statistical null hypothesis from being strictly tested. Moreover, since the null hypothesis H 0 (α=1, β=0) and alternative hypothesis H 1 '(α'=1, β'=0) in ecological progresses are diffe-rent from classic physics, the ecological null hypothesis can neither be strictly tested experimentally. These dilemmas of null hypothesis could be relieved via the reduction of P value, careful selection of null hypothesis, non-centralization of non-null hypothesis, and two-tailed test. However, the statistical null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) should not to be equivalent to the causality logistical test in ecological hypothesis. Hence, the findings and conclusions about methodological studies and experimental tests based on NHST are not always logically reliable.

Motormouth: Mere Exposure Depends on Stimulus-Specific Motor Simulations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topolinski, Sascha; Strack, Fritz

2009-01-01

The authors apply an embodied account to mere exposure, arguing that through the repeated exposure of a particular stimulus, motor responses specifically associated to that stimulus are repeatedly simulated, thus trained, and become increasingly fluent. This increased fluency drives preferences for repeated stimuli. This hypothesis was tested by…

Feminist Identity Development: Implications for Feminist Therapy with Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Kathleen; Rickard, Kathryn M.

1989-01-01

Discusses implications of the Downing and Roush (1985) feminist identity development model for feminist therapy with women. Describes potential pitfalls of feminist therapy and emergent issues at subsequent stages of client's identity development. Proposes research agenda for hypothesis testing of model when applied to therapy with women clients.…

Techniques for recognizing identity of several response functions from the data of visual inspection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nechval, Nicholas A.

1996-08-01

The purpose of this paper is to present some efficient techniques for recognizing from the observed data whether several response functions are identical to each other. For example, in an industrial setting the problem may be to determine whether the production coefficients established in a small-scale pilot study apply to each of several large- scale production facilities. The techniques proposed here combine sensor information from automated visual inspection of manufactured products which is carried out by means of pixel-by-pixel comparison of the sensed image of the product to be inspected with some reference pattern (or image). Let (a1, . . . , am) be p-dimensional parameters associated with m response models of the same type. This study is concerned with the simultaneous comparison of a1, . . . , am. A generalized maximum likelihood ratio (GMLR) test is derived for testing equality of these parameters, where each of the parameters represents a corresponding vector of regression coefficients. The GMLR test reduces to an equivalent test based on a statistic that has an F distribution. The main advantage of the test lies in its relative simplicity and the ease with which it can be applied. Another interesting test for the same problem is an application of Fisher's method of combining independent test statistics which can be considered as a parallel procedure to the GMLR test. The combination of independent test statistics does not appear to have been used very much in applied statistics. There does, however, seem to be potential data analytic value in techniques for combining distributional assessments in relation to statistically independent samples which are of joint experimental relevance. In addition, a new iterated test for the problem defined above is presented. A rejection of the null hypothesis by this test provides some reason why all the parameters are not equal. A numerical example is discussed in the context of the proposed procedures for hypothesis testing.

Ritual human sacrifice promoted and sustained the evolution of stratified societies.

PubMed

Watts, Joseph; Sheehan, Oliver; Atkinson, Quentin D; Bulbulia, Joseph; Gray, Russell D

2016-04-14

Evidence for human sacrifice is found throughout the archaeological record of early civilizations, the ethnographic records of indigenous world cultures, and the texts of the most prolific contemporary religions. According to the social control hypothesis, human sacrifice legitimizes political authority and social class systems, functioning to stabilize such social stratification. Support for the social control hypothesis is largely limited to historical anecdotes of human sacrifice, where the causal claims have not been subject to rigorous quantitative cross-cultural tests. Here we test the social control hypothesis by applying Bayesian phylogenetic methods to a geographically and socially diverse sample of 93 traditional Austronesian cultures. We find strong support for models in which human sacrifice stabilizes social stratification once stratification has arisen, and promotes a shift to strictly inherited class systems. Whilst evolutionary theories of religion have focused on the functionality of prosocial and moral beliefs, our results reveal a darker link between religion and the evolution of modern hierarchical societies.

Using Backward Design in Education Research: A Research Methods Essay †

PubMed Central

Jensen, Jamie L.; Bailey, Elizabeth G.; Kummer, Tyler A.; Weber, K. Scott

2017-01-01

Education research within the STEM disciplines applies a scholarly approach to teaching and learning, with the intent of better understanding how people learn and of improving pedagogy at the undergraduate level. Most of the professionals practicing in this field have ‘crossed over’ from other disciplinary fields and thus have faced challenges in becoming experts in a new discipline. In this article, we offer a novel framework for approaching education research design called Backward Design in Education Research. It is patterned on backward curricular design and provides a three-step, systematic approach to designing education projects: 1) Define a research question that leads to a testable causal hypothesis based on a theoretical rationale; 2) Choose or design the assessment instruments to test the research hypothesis; and 3) Develop an experimental protocol that will be effective in testing the research hypothesis. This approach provides a systematic method to develop and carry out evidence-based research design. PMID:29854045

“Positive” Results Increase Down the Hierarchy of the Sciences

PubMed Central

Fanelli, Daniele

2010-01-01

The hypothesis of a Hierarchy of the Sciences with physical sciences at the top, social sciences at the bottom, and biological sciences in-between is nearly 200 years old. This order is intuitive and reflected in many features of academic life, but whether it reflects the “hardness” of scientific research—i.e., the extent to which research questions and results are determined by data and theories as opposed to non-cognitive factors—is controversial. This study analysed 2434 papers published in all disciplines and that declared to have tested a hypothesis. It was determined how many papers reported a “positive” (full or partial) or “negative” support for the tested hypothesis. If the hierarchy hypothesis is correct, then researchers in “softer” sciences should have fewer constraints to their conscious and unconscious biases, and therefore report more positive outcomes. Results confirmed the predictions at all levels considered: discipline, domain and methodology broadly defined. Controlling for observed differences between pure and applied disciplines, and between papers testing one or several hypotheses, the odds of reporting a positive result were around 5 times higher among papers in the disciplines of Psychology and Psychiatry and Economics and Business compared to Space Science, 2.3 times higher in the domain of social sciences compared to the physical sciences, and 3.4 times higher in studies applying behavioural and social methodologies on people compared to physical and chemical studies on non-biological material. In all comparisons, biological studies had intermediate values. These results suggest that the nature of hypotheses tested and the logical and methodological rigour employed to test them vary systematically across disciplines and fields, depending on the complexity of the subject matter and possibly other factors (e.g., a field's level of historical and/or intellectual development). On the other hand, these results support the scientific status of the social sciences against claims that they are completely subjective, by showing that, when they adopt a scientific approach to discovery, they differ from the natural sciences only by a matter of degree. PMID:20383332

"Positive" results increase down the Hierarchy of the Sciences.

PubMed

Fanelli, Daniele

2010-04-07

The hypothesis of a Hierarchy of the Sciences with physical sciences at the top, social sciences at the bottom, and biological sciences in-between is nearly 200 years old. This order is intuitive and reflected in many features of academic life, but whether it reflects the "hardness" of scientific research--i.e., the extent to which research questions and results are determined by data and theories as opposed to non-cognitive factors--is controversial. This study analysed 2434 papers published in all disciplines and that declared to have tested a hypothesis. It was determined how many papers reported a "positive" (full or partial) or "negative" support for the tested hypothesis. If the hierarchy hypothesis is correct, then researchers in "softer" sciences should have fewer constraints to their conscious and unconscious biases, and therefore report more positive outcomes. Results confirmed the predictions at all levels considered: discipline, domain and methodology broadly defined. Controlling for observed differences between pure and applied disciplines, and between papers testing one or several hypotheses, the odds of reporting a positive result were around 5 times higher among papers in the disciplines of Psychology and Psychiatry and Economics and Business compared to Space Science, 2.3 times higher in the domain of social sciences compared to the physical sciences, and 3.4 times higher in studies applying behavioural and social methodologies on people compared to physical and chemical studies on non-biological material. In all comparisons, biological studies had intermediate values. These results suggest that the nature of hypotheses tested and the logical and methodological rigour employed to test them vary systematically across disciplines and fields, depending on the complexity of the subject matter and possibly other factors (e.g., a field's level of historical and/or intellectual development). On the other hand, these results support the scientific status of the social sciences against claims that they are completely subjective, by showing that, when they adopt a scientific approach to discovery, they differ from the natural sciences only by a matter of degree.

Testing a single regression coefficient in high dimensional linear models

PubMed Central

Zhong, Ping-Shou; Li, Runze; Wang, Hansheng; Tsai, Chih-Ling

2017-01-01

In linear regression models with high dimensional data, the classical z-test (or t-test) for testing the significance of each single regression coefficient is no longer applicable. This is mainly because the number of covariates exceeds the sample size. In this paper, we propose a simple and novel alternative by introducing the Correlated Predictors Screening (CPS) method to control for predictors that are highly correlated with the target covariate. Accordingly, the classical ordinary least squares approach can be employed to estimate the regression coefficient associated with the target covariate. In addition, we demonstrate that the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even if the random errors are heteroscedastic. This enables us to apply the z-test to assess the significance of each covariate. Based on the p-value obtained from testing the significance of each covariate, we further conduct multiple hypothesis testing by controlling the false discovery rate at the nominal level. Then, we show that the multiple hypothesis testing achieves consistent model selection. Simulation studies and empirical examples are presented to illustrate the finite sample performance and the usefulness of the proposed method, respectively. PMID:28663668

Testing a single regression coefficient in high dimensional linear models.

PubMed

Lan, Wei; Zhong, Ping-Shou; Li, Runze; Wang, Hansheng; Tsai, Chih-Ling

2016-11-01

In linear regression models with high dimensional data, the classical z -test (or t -test) for testing the significance of each single regression coefficient is no longer applicable. This is mainly because the number of covariates exceeds the sample size. In this paper, we propose a simple and novel alternative by introducing the Correlated Predictors Screening (CPS) method to control for predictors that are highly correlated with the target covariate. Accordingly, the classical ordinary least squares approach can be employed to estimate the regression coefficient associated with the target covariate. In addition, we demonstrate that the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even if the random errors are heteroscedastic. This enables us to apply the z -test to assess the significance of each covariate. Based on the p -value obtained from testing the significance of each covariate, we further conduct multiple hypothesis testing by controlling the false discovery rate at the nominal level. Then, we show that the multiple hypothesis testing achieves consistent model selection. Simulation studies and empirical examples are presented to illustrate the finite sample performance and the usefulness of the proposed method, respectively.

A test of the substitution-habitat hypothesis in amphibians.

PubMed

Martínez-Abraín, Alejandro; Galán, Pedro

2018-06-01

Most examples that support the substitution-habitat hypothesis (human-made habitats act as substitutes of original habitat) deal with birds and mammals. We tested this hypothesis in 14 amphibians by using percentage occupancy as a proxy of habitat quality (i.e., higher occupancy percentages indicate higher quality). We classified water body types as original habitat (no or little human influence) depending on anatomical, behavioral, or physiological adaptations of each amphibian species. Ten species had relatively high probabilities (0.16-0.28) of occurrence in original habitat, moderate probability of occurrence in substitution habitats (0.11-0.14), and low probability of occurrence in refuge habitats (0.05-0.08). Thus, the substitution-habitat hypothesis only partially applies to amphibians because the low occupancy of refuges could be due to the negligible human persecution of this group (indicating good conservation status). However, low occupancy of refuges could also be due to low tolerance of refuge conditions, which could have led to selective extinction or colonization problems due to poor dispersal capabilities. That original habitats had the highest probabilities of occupancy suggests amphibians have a good conservation status in the region. They also appeared highly adaptable to anthropogenic substitution habitats. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

The race to the nociceptor: mechanical versus temperature effects in thermal pain of dental neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Min; Liu, Fusheng; Liu, Shaobao; Ji, Changchun; Li, Ang; Lu, Tian Jian; Xu, Feng

2017-04-01

The sensing of hot and cold stimuli by dental neurons differs in several fundamental ways. These sensations have been characterized quantitatively through the measured time course of neural discharge signals that result from hot or cold stimuli applied to the teeth of animal models. Although various hypotheses have been proposed to explain the underlying mechanism, the ability to test competing hypotheses against experimental recorded data using biophysical models has been hindered by limitations in our understanding of the specific ion channels involved in nociception of dental neurons. Here we apply recent advances in established biophysical models to test the competing hypotheses. We show that a sharp shooting pain sensation experienced shortly following cold stimulation cannot be attributed to the activation of thermosensitive ion channels, thereby falsifying the so-called neuronal hypothesis, which states that rapidly transduced sensations of coldness are related to thermosensitive ion channels. Our results support a central role of mechanosensitive ion channels and the associated hydrodynamic hypothesis. In addition to the hydrodynamic hypothesis, we also demonstrate that the long time delay of dental neuron responses after hot stimulation could be attributed to the neuronal hypothesis—that a relatively long time is required for the temperature around nociceptors to reach some threshold. The results are useful as a model of how multiphysical phenomena can be combined to provide mechanistic insight into different mechanisms underlying pain sensations.

Applying knowledge-anchored hypothesis discovery methods to advance clinical and translational research: the OAMiner project

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rebecca D; Best, Thomas M; Borlawsky, Tara B; Lai, Albert M; James, Stephen; Gurcan, Metin N

2012-01-01

The conduct of clinical and translational research regularly involves the use of a variety of heterogeneous and large-scale data resources. Scalable methods for the integrative analysis of such resources, particularly when attempting to leverage computable domain knowledge in order to generate actionable hypotheses in a high-throughput manner, remain an open area of research. In this report, we describe both a generalizable design pattern for such integrative knowledge-anchored hypothesis discovery operations and our experience in applying that design pattern in the experimental context of a set of driving research questions related to the publicly available Osteoarthritis Initiative data repository. We believe that this ‘test bed’ project and the lessons learned during its execution are both generalizable and representative of common clinical and translational research paradigms. PMID:22647689

The atmospheric inventory of Xenon and noble cases in shales The plastic bag experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bernatowicz, T. J.; Podosek, F. A.; Honda, M.; Kramer, F. E.

1984-01-01

A novel trapped gas analysis protocol is applied to five shales in which the samples are sealed in air to eliminate the possibility of gas loss in the preanalysis laboratory vacuum exposure of a conventional protocol. The test is aimed at a determination concerning the hypothesis that atmospheric noble gases occur in the same proportion as planetary gases in meteorites, and that the factor-of-23 deficiency of air Xe relative to planetary Xe is made up by Xe stored in shales or other sedimentary rocks. The results obtained do not support the shale hypothesis.

A Coding System for Analysing a Spoken Text Database.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutting, Joan

1994-01-01

This paper describes a coding system devised to analyze conversations of graduate students in applied linguistics at Edinburgh University. The system was devised to test the hypothesis that as shared knowledge among conversation participants grows, the textual density of in-group members has more cues than that of strangers. The informal…

Sex Discrimination in Simulated Employment Contexts: A Meta-analytic Investigation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davison, Heather K.; Burke, Michael J.

2000-01-01

The hypothesis that applicant and rater sex, job sex-type, and job-relevant information would affect discrimination against applicants was tested in simulations. Both sexes received lower ratings when applying for opposite-sex-typed jobs. Both male and female raters rated male applicants higher. Differences between male and female ratings…

Effect of microbial-based inoculants on nutrient concentrations and early root morphology of corn (Zea mays)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Microbial-based inoculants have been reported to stimulate plant growth and nutrient uptake. However, their effect may vary depending on the growth stage when evaluated and on the chemical fertilizer applied. Thus, the objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that microbial-based inoculant...

Relocation and Alienation: Support for Stokols' Social Psychological Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hwalek, Melanie; Firestone, Ira

The extent to which Stokols' model of alienation could be applied to the relocation of elderly into age-homogeneous communal residences was investigated by interviewing 50 residents of two homes for the aged and one senior citizen apartment complex. Three types of regression analyses were performed to test the hypothesis that simultaneously…

A Cybernetic Approach To Study the Learnability of the LOGO Turtle World.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ippel, Martin J.; Meulemans, Caroline J. M.

1998-01-01

This study of second- and third-grade students in the Netherlands tests the hypothesis that simplification of the semantic structure will facilitate semantic understanding and acquisition of syntax knowledge within the LOGO Turtle World. Two microworlds were designed applying the theory of automata and abstract languages. (Author/LRW)

The Dynamics of Cognitive Performance: What Has Been Learnt from Empirical Research in Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

This paper discusses investigations in science education addressing the nonlinear dynamical hypothesis. Learning science is a suitable field for applying interdisciplinary research and predominately for testing psychological theories. It was demonstrated that in this area the paradigm of complexity and nonlinear dynamics have offered theoretical…

Social Change and Anomie: A Cross-National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Ruohui; Cao, Liqun

2010-01-01

We apply Durkheim's social transitional theory to explain the variation of anomie in 30 nations in the world. Combining data from two sources--the 1995 "World Values Survey and the United Nations University's World Income Inequality Database" or WIID--we test the hypothesis that rapid sociopolitical change at the structural level disrupts social…

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

2016-01-01

Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

Experimental test of the PCAC-hypothesis in charged current neutrino and antineutrino interactions on protons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G. T.; Jones, R. W. L.; Kennedy, B. W.; O'Neale, S. W.; Klein, H.; Morrison, D. R. O.; Schmid, P.; Wachsmuth, H.; Miller, D. B.; Mobayyen, M. M.; Wainstein, S.; Aderholz, M.; Hoffmann, E.; Katz, U. F.; Kern, J.; Schmitz, N.; Wittek, W.; Allport, P.; Myatt, G.; Radojicic, D.; Bullock, F. W.; Burke, S.

1987-03-01

Data obtained with the bubble chamber BEBC at CERN are used for the first significant test of Adler's prediction for the neutrino and antineutrino-proton scattering cross sections at vanishing four-momentum transfer squared Q 2. An Extended Vector Meson Dominance Model (EVDM) is applied to extrapolate Adler's prediction to experimentally accessible values of Q 2. The data show good agreement with Adler's prediction for Q 2→0 thus confirming the PCAC hypothesis in the kinematical region of high leptonic energy transfer ν>2 GeV. The good agreement of the data with the theoretical predictions also at higher Q 2, where the EVDM terms are dominant, also supports this model. However, an EVDM calculation without PCAC is clearly ruled out by the data.

Linguistic Phylogenies Support Back-Migration from Beringia to Asia

PubMed Central

Sicoli, Mark A.; Holton, Gary

2014-01-01

Recent arguments connecting Na-Dene languages of North America with Yeniseian languages of Siberia have been used to assert proof for the origin of Native Americans in central or western Asia. We apply phylogenetic methods to test support for this hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis that Yeniseian represents a back-migration to Asia from a Beringian ancestral population. We coded a linguistic dataset of typological features and used neighbor-joining network algorithms and Bayesian model comparison based on Bayes factors to test the fit between the data and the linguistic phylogenies modeling two dispersal hypotheses. Our results support that a Dene-Yeniseian connection more likely represents radiation out of Beringia with back-migration into central Asia than a migration from central or western Asia to North America. PMID:24621925

Two self-test methods applied to an inertial system problem. [estimating gyroscope and accelerometer bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willsky, A. S.; Deyst, J. J.; Crawford, B. S.

1975-01-01

The paper describes two self-test procedures applied to the problem of estimating the biases in accelerometers and gyroscopes on an inertial platform. The first technique is the weighted sum-squared residual (WSSR) test, with which accelerator bias jumps are easily isolated, but gyro bias jumps are difficult to isolate. The WSSR method does not take full advantage of the knowledge of system dynamics. The other technique is a multiple hypothesis method developed by Buxbaum and Haddad (1969). It has the advantage of directly providing jump isolation information, but suffers from computational problems. It might be possible to use the WSSR to detect state jumps and then switch to the BH system for jump isolation and estimate compensation.

Examination of the gamma equilibrium point hypothesis when applied to single degree of freedom movements performed with different inertial loads.

PubMed

Bellomo, A; Inbar, G

1997-01-01

One of the theories of human motor control is the gamma Equilibrium Point Hypothesis. It is an attractive theory since it offers an easy control scheme where the planned trajectory shifts monotionically from an initial to a final equilibrium state. The feasibility of this model was tested by reconstructing the virtual trajectory and the stiffness profiles for movements performed with different inertial loads and examining them. Three types of movements were tested: passive movements, targeted movements, and repetitive movements. Each of the movements was performed with five different inertial loads. Plausible virtual trajectories and stiffness profiles were reconstructed based on the gamma Equilibrium Point Hypothesis for the three different types of movements performed with different inertial loads. However, the simple control strategy supported by the model, where the planned trajectory shifts monotonically from an initial to a final equilibrium state, could not be supported for targeted movements performed with added inertial load. To test the feasibility of the model further we must examine the probability that the human motor control system would choose a trajectory more complicated than the actual trajectory to control.

The Target Income Hypothesis and Related Issues in Health Manpower Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Health Resources Administration (DHEW/PHS), Bethesda, MD. Bureau of Health Manpower.

The target income hypothesis as applied to health personnel is discussed in seven papers and three commentaries. The hypothesis pertains to the economic behavior of physicians, and it has recently been applied to dentists as well. The issues concern the production/supply of practitioners and the resulting cost for their services. Whether…

Neural networks supporting switching, hypothesis testing, and rule application

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhiya; Braunlich, Kurt; Wehe, Hillary S.; Seger, Carol A.

2015-01-01

We identified dynamic changes in recruitment of neural connectivity networks across three phases of a flexible rule learning and set-shifting task similar to the Wisconsin Card Sort Task: switching, rule learning via hypothesis testing, and rule application. During fMRI scanning, subjects viewed pairs of stimuli that differed across four dimensions (letter, color, size, screen location), chose one stimulus, and received feedback. Subjects were informed that the correct choice was determined by a simple unidimensional rule, for example “choose the blue letter.” Once each rule had been learned and correctly applied for 4-7 trials, subjects were cued via either negative feedback or visual cues to switch to learning a new rule. Task performance was divided into three phases: Switching (first trial after receiving the switch cue), hypothesis testing (subsequent trials through the last error trial), and rule application (correct responding after the rule was learned). We used both univariate analysis to characterize activity occurring within specific regions of the brain, and a multivariate method, constrained principal component analysis for fMRI (fMRI-CPCA), to investigate how distributed regions coordinate to subserve different processes. As hypothesized, switching was subserved by a limbic network including the ventral striatum, thalamus, and parahippocampal gyrus, in conjunction with cortical salience network regions including the anterior cingulate and frontoinsular cortex. Activity in the ventral striatum was associated with switching regardless of how switching was cued; visually cued shifts were associated with additional visual cortical activity. After switching, as subjects moved into the hypothesis testing phase, a broad fronto-parietal-striatal network (associated with the cognitive control, dorsal attention, and salience networks) increased in activity. This network was sensitive to rule learning speed, with greater extended activity for the slowest learning speed late in the time course of learning. As subjects shifted from hypothesis testing to rule application, activity in this network decreased and activity in the somatomotor and default mode networks increased. PMID:26197092

Neural networks supporting switching, hypothesis testing, and rule application.

PubMed

Liu, Zhiya; Braunlich, Kurt; Wehe, Hillary S; Seger, Carol A

2015-10-01

We identified dynamic changes in recruitment of neural connectivity networks across three phases of a flexible rule learning and set-shifting task similar to the Wisconsin Card Sort Task: switching, rule learning via hypothesis testing, and rule application. During fMRI scanning, subjects viewed pairs of stimuli that differed across four dimensions (letter, color, size, screen location), chose one stimulus, and received feedback. Subjects were informed that the correct choice was determined by a simple unidimensional rule, for example "choose the blue letter". Once each rule had been learned and correctly applied for 4-7 trials, subjects were cued via either negative feedback or visual cues to switch to learning a new rule. Task performance was divided into three phases: Switching (first trial after receiving the switch cue), hypothesis testing (subsequent trials through the last error trial), and rule application (correct responding after the rule was learned). We used both univariate analysis to characterize activity occurring within specific regions of the brain, and a multivariate method, constrained principal component analysis for fMRI (fMRI-CPCA), to investigate how distributed regions coordinate to subserve different processes. As hypothesized, switching was subserved by a limbic network including the ventral striatum, thalamus, and parahippocampal gyrus, in conjunction with cortical salience network regions including the anterior cingulate and frontoinsular cortex. Activity in the ventral striatum was associated with switching regardless of how switching was cued; visually cued shifts were associated with additional visual cortical activity. After switching, as subjects moved into the hypothesis testing phase, a broad fronto-parietal-striatal network (associated with the cognitive control, dorsal attention, and salience networks) increased in activity. This network was sensitive to rule learning speed, with greater extended activity for the slowest learning speed late in the time course of learning. As subjects shifted from hypothesis testing to rule application, activity in this network decreased and activity in the somatomotor and default mode networks increased. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brief Report: Testing the Impairment of Initiation Processes Hypothesis in Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carmo, Joana C.; Duarte, Elsa; Souza, Cristiane; Pinho, Sandra; Filipe, Carlos N.

2017-01-01

In the present study we aim at providing further evidences for the validity of an initiation processes impairment in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We applied different verbal fluency tasks designed to decrease or enhance this limitation. A group of high-functioning individuals with ASD and a group of typically developed individuals matched for…

Definition and Formulation of Scientific Prediction and Its Role in Inquiry-Based Laboratories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, Robert F.

2011-01-01

The formulation of a scientific prediction by students in college-level laboratories is proposed. This activity will develop the students' ability to apply abstract concepts via deductive reasoning. For instances in which a hypothesis will be tested by an experiment, students should develop a prediction that states what sort of experimental…

Applying a Qualitative Modeling Shell to Process Diagnosis: The Caster System. ONR Technical Report #16.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Timothy F.; Clancey, William J.

This report describes the application of a shell expert system from the medical diagnostic system, Neomycin, to Caster, a diagnostic system for malfunctions in industrial sandcasting. This system was developed to test the hypothesis that starting with a well-developed classification procedure and a relational language for stating the…

"Is There an Equal (Amount of) Juice?" Exploring the Repeated Question Effect in Conservation through Conversation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baucal, Aleksandar; Arcidiacono, Francesco; Budjevac, Nevena

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to highlight and discuss advantages and constraints of different methods applied within the field of children's thinking studies, through the test of the repeated question hypothesis validity, using the conservation of liquid task. In our perspective, the Piagetian interview is an ecologically valid context for…

One Label or Two? Linguistic Influences on the Similarity Judgment of Objects between English and Japanese Speakers

PubMed Central

Masuda, Takahiko; Ishii, Keiko; Miwa, Koji; Rashid, Marghalara; Lee, Hajin; Mahdi, Rania

2017-01-01

Recent findings have re-examined the linguistic influence on cognition and perception, while identifying evidence that supports the Whorfian hypothesis. We examine how English and Japanese speakers perceive similarity of pairs of objects, by using two sets of stimuli: one in which two distinct linguistic categories apply to respective object images in English, but only one linguistic category applies in Japanese; and another in which two distinct linguistic categories apply to respective object images in Japanese, but only one applies in English. We conducted four studies and tested different groups of participants in each of them. In Study 1, we asked participants to name the two objects before engaging in the similarity judgment task. Here, we expected a strong linguistic effect. In Study 2, we asked participants to engage in the same task without naming, where we assumed that the condition is close enough to our daily visual information processing where language is not necessarily prompted. We further explored whether the language still influences the similarity perception by asking participants to engage in the same task basing on the visual similarity (Study 3) and the functional similarity (Study 4). The results overall indicated that English and Japanese speakers perceived the two objects to be more similar when they were in the same linguistic categories than when they were in different linguistic categories in their respective languages. Implications for research testing the Whorfian hypothesis and the requirement for methodological development beyond behavioral measures are discussed. PMID:29018375

Prediction of pilot opinion ratings using an optimal pilot model. [of aircraft handling qualities in multiaxis tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, R. A.

1977-01-01

A brief review of some of the more pertinent applications of analytical pilot models to the prediction of aircraft handling qualities is undertaken. The relative ease with which multiloop piloting tasks can be modeled via the optimal control formulation makes the use of optimal pilot models particularly attractive for handling qualities research. To this end, a rating hypothesis is introduced which relates the numerical pilot opinion rating assigned to a particular vehicle and task to the numerical value of the index of performance resulting from an optimal pilot modeling procedure as applied to that vehicle and task. This hypothesis is tested using data from piloted simulations and is shown to be reasonable. An example concerning a helicopter landing approach is introduced to outline the predictive capability of the rating hypothesis in multiaxis piloting tasks.

Explorations in statistics: hypothesis tests and P values.

PubMed

Curran-Everett, Douglas

2009-06-01

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This second installment of Explorations in Statistics delves into test statistics and P values, two concepts fundamental to the test of a scientific null hypothesis. The essence of a test statistic is that it compares what we observe in the experiment to what we expect to see if the null hypothesis is true. The P value associated with the magnitude of that test statistic answers this question: if the null hypothesis is true, what proportion of possible values of the test statistic are at least as extreme as the one I got? Although statisticians continue to stress the limitations of hypothesis tests, there are two realities we must acknowledge: hypothesis tests are ingrained within science, and the simple test of a null hypothesis can be useful. As a result, it behooves us to explore the notions of hypothesis tests, test statistics, and P values.

Debates—Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Pursuing certainty versus pursuing uberty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Victor R.

2017-03-01

Modern hydrology places nearly all its emphasis on science-as-knowledge, the hypotheses of which are increasingly expressed as physical models, whose predictions are tested by correspondence to quantitative data sets. Though arguably appropriate for applications of theory to engineering and applied science, the associated emphases on truth and degrees of certainty are not optimal for the productive and creative processes that facilitate the fundamental advancement of science as a process of discovery. The latter requires an investigative approach, where the goal is uberty, a kind of fruitfulness of inquiry, in which the abductive mode of inference adds to the much more commonly acknowledged modes of deduction and induction. The resulting world-directed approach to hydrology provides a valuable complement to the prevailing hypothesis- (theory-) directed paradigm.