Assessing the Response of Alaska's Glaciers to Post-Little Ice Age Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnia, B. F.

2001-12-01

A comprehensive survey of the eleven mountain ranges and three island areas in Alaska that presently support glaciers was conducted to determine how glaciers in each area have responded to post-Little Ice Age (LIA) climate change. Today, glaciers cover 5 percent of Alaska, about 75,000 sq. km., range in elevation from 6,000 m to below sea level, and span latitudes from south of 55 degrees N to north of 69 degrees N. During the LIA, Alaskan glaciers expanded significantly, covering 10 percent more area than today. Many different types of data were used to construct baselines and determine glacier change. These include: published descriptions of glaciers (1794 - 2000), historic and modern maps (1794 - 2000), aerial photography (1926 - 2001), ground photography (1884 - 2001), airborne radar (1981 - 1991), satellite radar (1978 - 1998), space photography (1984 - 1994), multi-spectral satellite imagery (1972 - 2001), aerial reconnaissance and field observations by the author (1968 - 2001), and various types of proxy data. Data available varied for each region and glacier. Every mountain range and island group investigated is characterized by significant glacier retreat, thinning, and/or stagnation, especially at lower elevations. At some locations, glaciers have completely disappeared during the twentieth century. In other areas, retreat that started as early as the early eighteenth century, has continued into the twenty-first century. Ironically, in several areas, retreat is resulting in the number of glaciers is actually increasing, but the volume and area of ice is decreasing. The key survey findings are: ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO, KODIAK ISLAND, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: every glacier examined showed evidence of thinning and retreat. Some have disappeared since last being mapped in the mid-twentieth century; COAST MOUNTAINS, ST. ELIAS MOUNTAINS, CHUGACH MOUNTAINS, KENAI MOUNTAINS, WRANGELL MOUNTAINS, ALASKA RANGE, AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE: more than 95 percent of glaciers ending

How and when to terminate the Pleistocene ice ages?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Takahashi, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Blatter, H.

2015-12-01

Climate change with wax and wane of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet occurred in the past 800 thousand years characterized by 100 thousand year cycle with a large amplitude of sawtooth pattern, following a transition from a period of 40 thousand years cycle with small amplitude of ice sheet change at about 1 million years ago. Although the importance of insolation as the ultimate driver is now appreciated, the mechanism what determines timing and strength of terminations are far from clearly understood. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. We discuss further the mechanism which determine the timing of ice age terminations by examining the role of astronomical forcing and change of atmospheric carbon dioxide contents through sensitivity experiments and comparison of several ice age cycles with different settings of astronomical forcings.

Ice Storms in a Changing Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

CHANGING CLIMATE by Jennifer M. McNitt June 2016 Thesis Advisor: Wendell Nuss Co-Advisor: David W. Titley THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT...SUBTITLE ICE STORMS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Jennifer M. McNitt 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS...increase in global temperatures, due to climate change , could affect the frequency, intensity, and geographic location of ice storms. Three known ice

500,000-year temperature record challenges ice age theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snow, K. Mitchell

1994-01-01

Just outside the searing heat of Death Valley lies Devils Hole (fig. 1), a fault-created cave that harbors two remnants of the Earth's great ice ages. The endangered desert pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) has long made its home in the cave. A 500,000-year record of the planet's climate that challenges a widely accepted theory explaining the ice ages also has been preserved in Devils Hole.

Did glacially induced TPW end the ice age? A reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Ngai-Ham; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Daradich, Amy

2015-09-01

Previous studies of Earth rotation perturbations due to ice-age loading have predicted a slow secular drift of the rotation axis relative to the surface geography (i.e. true polar wander, TPW) of order of several degrees over the Plio-Pleistocene. It has been argued that this drift and the change in the geographic distribution of solar insolation that it implies may have been responsible for important transitions in ice-age climate, including the termination of ice-age cycles.We use a revised rotational stability theory that incorporates a more accurate treatment of the Earth's background ellipticity to reconsider this issue, and demonstrate that the net displacement of the pole predicted in earlier studies disappears. This more muted polar motion is due to two factors: first, the revised theory no longer predicts the permanent shift in the rotation axis, or the so-called `unidirectional TPW', that appears in the traditional stability theory; and, second, the increased background ellipticity incorporated in the revised predictions acts to reduce the normal mode amplitudes governing the motion of the pole. We conclude that ice-age-induced TPW was not responsible for the termination of the ice age. This does not preclude the possibility that TPW induced by mantle convective flow may have played a role in major Plio-Pleistocene climate transitions, including the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Geological Evidence for Recent Ice Ages on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W.; Mustard, J. F.; Kreslavsky, M. A.; Milliken, R. E.; Marchant, D. R.

2003-12-01

A primary cause of ice ages on Earth is orbital forcing from variations in orbital parameters of the planet. On Mars such variations are known to be much more extreme. Recent exploration of Mars has revealed abundant water ice in the near-surface at high latitudes in both hemispheres. We outline evidence that these near-surface, water-ice rich mantling deposits represent a mixture of ice and dust that is layered, meters thick, and latitude dependent. These units were formed during a geologically recent major martian ice age, and were emplaced in response to the changing stability of water ice and dust on the surface during variations in orbital parameters. Evidence for these units include a smoothing of topography at subkilometer baselines from about 30o north and south latitudes to the poles, a distinctive dissected texture in MOC images in the +/-30o-60o latitude band, latitude-dependent sets of topographic characteristics and morphologic features (e.g., polygons, 'basketball' terrain texture, gullies, viscous flow features), and hydrogen concentrations consistent with the presence of abundant ice at shallow depths above 60o latitude. The most equatorward extent of these ice-rich deposits was emplaced down to latitudes equivalent to Saudi Arabia and the southern United States on Earth during the last major martian ice age, probably about 0.4-2.1 million years ago. Mars is currently in an inter-ice age period and the ice-rich deposits are presently undergoing reworking, degradation and retreat in response to the current stability relations of near-surface ice. Unlike Earth, martian ice ages are characterized by warmer climates in the polar regions and the enhanced role of atmospheric water ice and dust transport and deposition to produce widespread and relatively evenly distributed smooth deposits at mid-latitudes during obliquity maxima.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Glacier History of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula Region Since the End of the Last Ice Age and Implications for Southern Hemisphere Westerly-Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, M. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Strelin, J. A.; Peltier, C.; Southon, J. R.; Lepper, K. E.; Winckler, G.

2017-12-01

For the area around James Ross Island, we present new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages on glacial deposits, and 14C ages on associated fossil materials. These data allow us to reconstruct in detail when and how the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet retreated around the Island as the last Ice Age ended, and afterward when local land-based glaciers fluctuated. Similar to other studies, we found widespread deglaciation during the earliest Holocene, with fjords and bays becoming ice free between about 11,000 and 8,000 years ago. After 7,000 years ago, neoglacial type advances initiated. Then, both expansions and ice free periods occurred from the middle to late Holocene. We compare the new glacier record to those in southern Patagonia, which is on the other side of the Drake Passage, and published Southern Ocean marine records, in order to infer past middle to high latitude changes in the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies. Widespread warmth in the earliest Holocene, to the north and south of the Drake Passage, led to small glacier systems in Patagonia and wide-ranging glacier recession around the northern Antarctic Peninsula. We infer that this early Holocene period of overall glacier recession - from Patagonia to the northern Peninsula - was caused by a persistent far-southerly setting of the westerlies and accompanying warm climates. Subsequently, during the middle Holocene renewed glacier expansions occurred on both sides of the Drake Passage, which reflects that the Westerlies and associated colder climate systems were generally more equatorward. From the middle to late Holocene, glacier expansions and ice free periods (and likely related ice shelf behavior) document how the Westerlies and associated higher-latitude climate systems varied.

Life and extinction of megafauna in the ice-age Arctic

PubMed Central

Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Reanier, Richard E.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Kunz, Michael L.; Shapiro, Beth

2015-01-01

Understanding the population dynamics of megafauna that inhabited the mammoth steppe provides insights into the causes of extinctions during both the terminal Pleistocene and today. Our study area is Alaska's North Slope, a place where humans were rare when these extinctions occurred. After developing a statistical approach to remove the age artifacts caused by radiocarbon calibration from a large series of dated megafaunal bones, we compare the temporal patterns of bone abundance with climate records. Megafaunal abundance tracked ice age climate, peaking during transitions from cold to warm periods. These results suggest that a defining characteristic of the mammoth steppe was its temporal instability and imply that regional extinctions followed by population reestablishment from distant refugia were characteristic features of ice-age biogeography at high latitudes. It follows that long-distance dispersal was crucial for the long-term persistence of megafaunal species living in the Arctic. Such dispersal was only possible when their rapidly shifting range lands were geographically interconnected. The end of the last ice age was fatally unique because the geographic ranges of arctic megafauna became permanently fragmented after stable, interglacial climate engendered the spread of peatlands at the same time that rising sea level severed former dispersal routes. PMID:26578776

Biochemical evidence for minimal vegetation change in peatlands of the West Siberian Lowland during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philben, Michael; Kaiser, Karl; Benner, Ronald

2014-05-01

Peatland vegetation is controlled primarily by the depth of the water table, making peat paleovegetation a useful climate archive. We applied a biochemical approach to quantitatively estimate the plant sources of peat carbon based on (1) neutral sugar compositions of Sphagnum, vascular plants, and lichens and (2) lignin phenol compositions of vascular plants. We used these biochemical indices to characterize vegetation change over the last 2000 years in four peat cores from the West Siberian Lowland (Russia) to investigate climate change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. The vegetation was dominated by Sphagnum in all four cores, but was punctuated by several rapid but transient transitions to vascular plant dominance in the two cores from the southern West Siberian Lowland (<60°N latitude). Lichen contributions were evident at the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and during the Little Ice Age in the two cores from northern West Siberian Lowland (>60°N), possibly indicating permafrost development. However, there was no evidence for sustained vegetation change in response to either climatic event in cores from southern West Siberian Lowland. This suggests that these climatic events were relatively mild in the southern West Siberian Lowland, although the sensitivity of bog plant communities to climate change remains poorly understood.

Sea Ice, Climate and Fram Strait

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunkins, K.

1984-01-01

When sea ice is formed the albedo of the ocean surface increases from its open water value of about 0.1 to a value as high as 0.8. This albedo change effects the radiation balance and thus has the potential to alter climate. Sea ice also partially seals off the ocean from the atmosphere, reducing the exchange of gases such as carbon dioxide. This is another possible mechanism by which climate might be affected. The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX 83 to 84) is an international, multidisciplinary study of processes controlling the edge of the ice pack in that area including the interactions between sea, air and ice.

Ice sheets play important role in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter U.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Andrews, John T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

Ice sheets once were viewed as passive elements in the climate system enslaved to orbitally generated variations in solar radiation. Today, modeling results and new geologic records suggest that ice sheets actively participated in late-Pleistocene climate change, amplifying or driving significant variability at millennial as well as orbital timescales. Although large changes in global ice volume were ultimately caused by orbital variations (the Milankovitch hypothesis), once in existence, the former ice sheets behaved dynamically and strongly influenced regional and perhaps even global climate by altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature.Experiments with General Circulation Models (GCMs) yielded the first inklings of ice sheets' climatic significance. Manabe and Broccoli [1985], for example, found that the topographic and albedo effects of ice sheets alone explain much of the Northern Hemisphere cooling identified in paleoclimatic records of the last glacial maximum (˜21 ka).

Volcanic Eruptions as the Cause of the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambri, B.; Robock, A.

2017-12-01

Both external forcing (solar radiation, volcanic eruptions) and internal fluctuations have been proposed to explain such multi-centennial perturbations as the Little Ice Age. Confidence in these hypotheses is limited due to the limited number of proxies, as well as only one observed realization of the Last Millennium. Here, we evaluate different hypotheses on the origin of Little Ice Age-like anomalies, focusing in particular on the long-term response of North Atlantic and Arctic climate perturbations to solar and volcanic perturbations. For that, we conduct a range of sensitivity tests carried out with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, focusing in particular on the sensitivity to initial conditions and the strength of solar and volcanic forcing. By comparing the climate response to various combinations of external perturbations, we demonstrate nonlinear interactions that are necessary to explain trends observed in the fully coupled system and discuss physical mechanisms through which these external forcings can trigger multidecadal modes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and subsequently lead to a Little-Ice-Age-like regime. For that, we capture and compare patterns of the coupled atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean response as revealed through a range of data analysis techniques. We show that the large 1257 Samalas, 1452 Kuwae, and 1600 Huaynaputina volcanic eruptions were the main causes of the multi-centennial glaciation associated with the Little Ice Age.

Expanding research capabilities with sea ice climate records for analysis of long-term climate change and short-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, D. J.; Meier, W. N.

2008-12-01

Recent sea ice analysis is leading to predictions of a sea ice-free summertime in the Arctic within 20 years, or even sooner. Sea ice topics, such as concentration, extent, motion, and age, are predominately studied using satellite data. At the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), passive microwave sea ice data sets provide timely assessments of seasonal-scale variability as well as consistent long-term climate data records. Such data sets are crucial to understanding changes and assessing their impacts. Noticeable impacts of changing sea ice conditions on native cultures and wildlife in the Arctic region are now being documented. With continued deterioration in Arctic sea ice, global economic impacts will be seen as new shipping routes open. NSIDC is at the forefront of making climate data records available to address the changes in sea ice and its global impacts. By focusing on integrated data sets, NSIDC leads the way by broadening the studies of sea ice beyond the traditional cryospheric community.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geiger, Cathleen A.

1997-01-01

Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

Ice Core Records of Recent Northwest Greenland Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Wong, G. J.; Ferris, D.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.; Hawley, R. L.

2014-12-01

Meteorological station data from NW Greenland indicate a 3oC temperature rise since 1990, with most of the warming occurring in fall and winter. According to remote sensing data, the NW Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and coastal ice caps are responding with ice mass loss and margin retreat, but the cryosphere's response to previous climate variability is poorly constrained in this region. We are developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate change and cryospheric response in NW Greenland to improve projections of future ice loss and sea level rise in a warming climate. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 21 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317o N, 63.1467o W, 1685 m el.) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938o N, 67.671o W, 1273 m el.) in 2011, 2012 and 2014. The 2Barrel ice core record has statistically significant relationships with regional spring and fall Baffin Bay sea ice extent, summertime temperature, and annual precipitation. Here we evaluate relationships between the 2014 North Ice Cap firn core glaciochemical record and climate variability from regional instrumental stations and reanalysis datasets. We compare the coastal North Ice Cap record to more inland records from 2Barrel, Camp Century and NEEM to evaluate spatial and elevational gradients in recent NW Greenland climate change.

Possible effects of anthropogenically-increased CO[sub 2] on the dynamics of climate: Implications for ice age cycles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saltzman, B.; Maasch, K.A.; Verbitsky, M.Ya.

1993-06-07

The authors look at the impact of an antropogenic step increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide content on a dynamic model designed to look at long-term variations in climate. The model is one developed by Saltzman and Maasch, and Saltzman and Verbitsky, where four slow responding variables are considered to carry the climatic change information over the past 5 My. One of these variables is the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. If this step increase is maintained over a long period of time, what impact does this have of the present unstable regime where climate oscillates through ice age periodsmore » Indications are that the climate shifts to a regime where the oscillations are much weaker than those which prevailed during the Pleistocene.« less

Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gettelman, Andrew; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, Ulrike; Chen, Celia

2012-01-01

Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1992-01-01

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the

Climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age based on ostracod faunas and shell geochemistry from Biscayne Bay, Florida: Chapter 14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Wingard, G. Lynn; Dwyer, Gary S.; Swart, Peter K.; Willard, Debra A.; Albietz, Jessica

2012-01-01

An 800-year-long environmental history of Biscayne Bay, Florida, is reconstructed from ostracod faunal and shell geochemical (oxygen, carbon isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios) studies of sediment cores from three mudbanks in the central and southern parts of the bay. Using calibrations derived from analyses of modern Biscayne and Florida Bay ostracods, palaeosalinity oscillations associated with changes in precipitation were identified. These oscillations reflect multidecadal- and centennial-scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Evidence suggests wetter regional climate during the MCA and drier conditions during the LIA. In addition, twentieth century anthropogenic modifications to Everglades hydrology influenced bay circulation and/or processes controlling carbon isotopic composition.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Coral Ensemble Estimates of Central Pacific Mean Climate During the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Cobb, K. M.; O'Connor, G.; Khare, A.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hagos, M. M.; Hitt, N. T.; Thompson, D. M.; Deocampo, D.; Lu, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-12-01

Multi-century, robust records of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability from the pre-industrial era are needed to quantify anthropogenic contributions to present-day climate trends and to improve the accuracy of regional climate projections. However, high-resolution reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate are scarce prior to the 20th century, and only a handful exist from the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1850CE) immediately prior to the documented rise of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Modern and fossil corals from the northern Line Islands (2-6°N, 157-162°W) have been used to extend the instrumental climate record back into the LIA and beyond, primarily for paleo-ENSO investigations [Cobb et al., 2003, 2013]. However, large offsets in mean coral Sr/Ca and δ18O values observed across overlapping coral colonies translate into 1-2°C (1σ) uncertainties for mean climate reconstructions based on any single fossil coral colony. Here we present the results of a new approach to reconstructing mean climate during the LIA using a large ensemble (N>10) of relatively short (7-15yr long), U/Th-dated fossil corals from Christmas Island (2°N, 157°W). We employ pseudo-coral estimates of paleo-SST and paleo-seawater δ18O variations as benchmarks for our reconstructions, with a focus on quantifying the maximum and minimum potential tropical Pacific SST changes during the LIA that are consistent with our new ensemble of coral data. Lastly, by comparing bulk and high-resolution coral d18O and Sr/Ca records, we identify the strengths and limitations of using a high-N, ensemble approach to climate reconstruction from fossil corals. References:Cobb, K. M., et al. (2003) Nature. doi:10.1038/nature01779Cobb, K. M., et al. (2013) Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1228246

Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Prasad Gogineni, S; Young, S Keith; Rybarski, Susan C; Mabrey, Alexandria N; Wagman, Benjamin M; Morlighem, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracing Reflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow model Radiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow PMID:26213664

Final Laurentide ice-sheet deglaciation and Holocene climate-sea level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Clark, Peter U.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Milne, Glenn A.; Winsor, Kelsey; Caffee, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jasmine R.; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A.; Shaw, Justine D.; Terauds, Aleks

2017-07-01

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

PubMed

Lee, Jasmine R; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A; Shaw, Justine D; Terauds, Aleks

2017-07-06

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km 2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik

2017-04-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

Centennial-scale Holocene climate variations amplified by Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Pepijn; Clark, Peter U.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Schmittner, Andreas; Weber, Michael E.

2017-01-01

Proxy-based indicators of past climate change show that current global climate models systematically underestimate Holocene-epoch climate variability on centennial to multi-millennial timescales, with the mismatch increasing for longer periods. Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean-atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate feedbacks related to the carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate. Such interactions, however, are known to have strongly affected centennial- to orbital-scale climate variability during past glaciations, and are likely to be important in future climate change. Here we show that fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet discharge caused by relatively small changes in subsurface ocean temperature can amplify multi-centennial climate variability regionally and globally, suggesting that a dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet may have driven climate fluctuations during the Holocene. We analysed high-temporal-resolution records of iceberg-rafted debris derived from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and performed both high-spatial-resolution ice-sheet modelling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and multi-millennial global climate model simulations. Ice-sheet responses to decadal-scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long-term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.

Earth's Climate History from Glaciers and Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Lonnie

2013-03-01

Glaciers serve both as recorders and early indicators of climate change. Over the past 35 years our research team has recovered climatic and environmental histories from ice cores drilled in both Polar Regions and from low to mid-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Those ice core -derived proxy records extending back 25,000 years have made it possible to compare glacial stage conditions in the Tropics with those in the Polar Regions. High-resolution records of δ18O (in part a temperature proxy) demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to lower latitudes is unprecedented for the last two millennia, although at many sites the early Holocene was warmer than today. Remarkable similarities between changes in the highland and coastal cultures of Peru and regional climate variability, especially precipitation, imply a strong connection between prehistoric human activities and regional climate. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds to thousands of years, suggesting that current climatological conditions in those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originated and have been sustained. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides strong evidence that a large-scale, pervasive and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. Observations of glacier shrinkage during the 20th and 21st century girdle the globe from the South American Andes, the Himalayas, Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, Africa) and glaciers near Puncak Jaya, Indonesia (New Guinea). The history and fate of these ice caps, told through the adventure, beauty and the scientific evidence from some of world's most remote mountain tops, provide a global perspective for contemporary climate. NSF Paleoclimate Program

Devon Ice cap's future: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling via surface mass balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.

2017-12-01

The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

Mars Ice Age, Simulated

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

December 17, 2003

This simulated view shows Mars as it might have appeared during the height of a possible ice age in geologically recent time.

Of all Solar System planets, Mars has the climate most like that of Earth. Both are sensitive to small changes in orbit and tilt. During a period about 2.1 million to 400,000 years ago, increased tilt of Mars' rotational axis caused increased solar heating at the poles. A new study using observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey orbiters concludes that this polar warming caused mobilization of water vapor and dust into the atmosphere, and buildup of a surface deposit of ice and dust down to about 30 degrees latitude in both hemispheres. That is the equivalent of the southern Unites States or Saudi Arabia on Earth. Mars has been in an interglacial period characterized by less axial tilt for about the last 300,000 years. The ice-rich surface deposit has been degrading in the latitude zone of 30 degrees to 60 degrees as water-ice returns to the poles.

In this illustration prepared for the December 18, 2003, cover of the journal Nature, the simulated surface deposit is superposed on a topography map based on altitude measurements by Global Surveyor and images from NASA's Viking orbiters of the 1970s.

Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey are managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a division of the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, for the NASA Office of Space Science, Washington.

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

2016-09-23

A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

Assimilating the ICE-6G_C Reconstruction of the Latest Quaternary Ice Age Cycle Into Numerical Simulations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuhne, G. R.; Peltier, W. R.

2017-12-01

We analyze the effects of nudging 100 kyr numerical simulations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets toward the glacial isostatic adjustment-based (GIA-based) ICE-6G_C reconstruction of the most recent ice age cycle. Starting with the ice physics approximations of the PISM ice sheet model and the SeaRISE simulation protocols, we incorporate nudging at characteristic time scales, τf, through anomalous mass balance terms in the ice mass conservation equation. As should be expected, these mass balances exhibit physically unrealistic details arising from pure GIA-based reconstruction geometry when nudging is very strong (τf=20 years for North America), while weakly nudged (τf=1,000 years) solutions deviate from ICE-6G_C sufficiently to degrade its observational fit quality. For reasonable intermediate time scales (τf=100 years and 200 years), we perturbatively analyze nudged ice dynamics as a superposition of "leading-order smoothing" that diffuses ICE-6G_C in a physically and observationally consistent manner and "higher-order" deviations arising, for instance, from biases in the time dependence of surface climate boundary conditions. Based upon the relative deviations between respective nudged simulations in which these biases follow surface temperature from ice cores and eustatic sea level from marine sediment cores, we compute "ice core climate adjustments" that suggest how local paleoclimate observations may be applied to the systematic refinement of ICE-6G_C. Our results are consistent with a growing body of evidence suggesting that the geographical origins of Meltwater Pulse 1B (MWP1b) may lie primarily in North America as opposed to Antarctica (as reconstructed in ICE-6G_C).

Polar Climate: Arctic sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, R.S.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, G.I.; Drobot, S.D.

2005-01-01

Recent decreases in snow and sea ice cover in the high northern latitudes are among the most notable indicators of climate change. Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent for the year as a whole was the third lowest on record dating back to 1973, behind 1995 (lowest) and 1990 (second lowest; Hadley Center–NCEP). September sea ice extent, which is at the end of the summer melt season and is typically the month with the lowest sea ice extent of the year, has decreased by about 19% since the late 1970s (Fig. 5.2), with a record minimum observed in 2002 (Serreze et al. 2003). A record low extent also occurred in spring (Chapman 2005, personal communication), and 2004 marked the third consecutive year of anomalously extreme sea ice retreat in the Arctic (Stroeve et al. 2005). Some model simulations indicate that ice-free summers will occur in the Arctic by the year 2070 (ACIA 2004).

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

1999-01-01

The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edinburgh, Tom; Day, Jonathan J.

2016-11-01

In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models. However, evidence of the presence and nature of sea ice was often recorded during early Antarctic exploration, though these sources have not previously been explored or exploited until now. We have analysed observations of the summer sea ice edge from the ship logbooks of explorers such as Robert Falcon Scott, Ernest Shackleton and their contemporaries during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration (1897-1917), and in this study we compare these to satellite observations from the period 1989-2014, offering insight into the ice conditions of this period, from direct observations, for the first time. This comparison shows that the summer sea ice edge was between 1.0 and 1.7° further north in the Weddell Sea during this period but that ice conditions were surprisingly comparable to the present day in other sectors.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

Holocene Fluctuations of North Ice Cap, a Proxy for Climate Conditions along the Northwestern Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Lasher, G. E.; Farnsworth, L. B.; Howley, J. A.; Axford, Y.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2015-12-01

North Ice Cap (~76.9°N, 68°W, summit elevation 1322 m asl), a small, independent ice cap in northwestern Greenland, is located within ~25 km of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin and Harald Molkte Bræ outlet glacier. We present geochronological, geomorphic and sedimentological data constraining the Holocene extents of North Ice Cap and suggest that its past fluctuations can be used as a proxy for climate conditions along the northwestern margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Prior work by Goldthwait (1960) used glacial geomorphology and radiocarbon ages of subfossil plants emerging along shear planes in the ice cap margin to suggest that that North Ice Cap was not present during the early Holocene and nucleated in the middle to late Holocene time, with the onset of colder conditions. Subfossil plants emerging at shear planes in the North Ice Cap margin yield radiocarbon ages of ~4.8-5.9 cal kyr BP (Goldthwait, 1960) and ~AD 1000-1350 (950-600 cal yr BP), indicating times when the ice cap was smaller than at present. In situ subfossil plants exposed by recent ice cap retreat date to ~AD 1500-1840 (450-110 cal yr BP) and indicate small fluctuations of the ice cap margin. 10Be ages of an unweathered, lichen-free drift <100 m from the present North Ice Cap margin range from ~500 to 8000 yrs ago. We suggest that the drift was deposited during the last ~500 yrs and that the older 10Be ages are influenced by 10Be inherited from a prior period of exposure. We also infer ice cap fluctuations using geochemical data from a Holocene-long sediment core from Deltasø, a downstream lake that currently receives meltwater from North Ice Cap. The recent recession of the North Ice Cap margin influenced a catastrophic drainage of a large proglacial lake, Søndre Snesø, that our field team documented in August 2012. To our knowledge, this is the first significant lowering of Søndre Snesø in historical time.

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-12-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

Students' Conceptions of Glaciers and Ice Ages: Applying the Model of Educational Reconstruction to Improve Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felzmann, Dirk

2017-01-01

Glaciers and ice ages are important topics in teaching geomorphology, earth history, and climate change. As with many geoscience topics, glacier formation, glacier movement, glacial morphology, and ice ages consist of a wide variety of processes and phenomena. Accordingly, it must be decided which of those processes and phenomena should be part of…

Climate variability reflected by tree-ring width and δ18O in a heavily glaciated area of the Patagonian Andes since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W. J. H.; Wernicke, J., Jr.; Braun, M.; Aravena, J. C.; Jaña, R.; Griessinger, J.

2016-12-01

Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the area of the Northern and Southern Patagonian ice sheet decreased by more than 14% and 11%, respectively. The melting increased since the last decade by 2.3%. The glaciers of Cordillera Darwin recorded a surface decrease of approximately 14% for the last 140 years. The reason for the excessive glacial change is often explained through the rise in temperature combined with a decrease in precipitation or a change in seasonality. Since a spatially coherent coverage of climatological measurement is lacking it is not possible to verify this assumption in a differentiated manner. Hence, the German- Chilean joint project "Responses of GlAciers, Biosphere and hYdrology to climate Variability and climate chAnge across the Southern Andes (GABY-VASA)" aims to determine the influence of long and short term climate variabilities (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM)) on the cryo- and biosphere. Trees growing at the glacier margins and at the natural treeline were sampled at four different locations ranging from the humid western part of the southern Andes (annual precipitation > 10.000mma-1) to the distinct dryer eastern part (annual precipitation < 500mma-1). Besides the tree-ring width based temperature reconstruction the precipitation variability reflected by δ18O in tree-rings is a promising approach to obtain detailed information of small-scaled hydro climatic conditions. Furthermore the use of δ18O as a proxy in combination with tree-ring width offers the opportunity of meteorological back trajectories and the derivation of air masses since the Little Ice Age. It thus interlinks past and present climate and allows to draw conclusions about the driving forces of glacial change.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalk, Thomas B.; Hain, Mathis P.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-12-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ˜40,000 (˜40 ky) to ˜100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ˜43 to ˜75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

ScienceCinema

Barry, Roger G.

2017-12-09

Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

Establishing a Reliable Depth-Age Relationship for the Denali Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C. P.; Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Ferris, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Introne, D.; Dalton, M.

2015-12-01

Reliable climate reconstruction from ice core records requires the development of a reliable depth-age relationship. We have established a sub-annual resolution depth-age relationship for the upper 198 meters of a 208 m ice core recovered in 2013 from Mt. Hunter (3,900 m asl), Denali National Park, central Alaska. The dating of the ice core was accomplished via annual layer counting of glaciochemical time-series combined with identification of reference horizons from volcanic eruptions and atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. Using the continuous ice core melter system at Dartmouth College, sub-seasonal samples have been collected and analyzed for major ions, liquid conductivity, particle size and concentration, and stable isotope ratios. Annual signals are apparent in several of the chemical species measured in the ice core samples. Calcium and magnesium peak in the spring, ammonium peaks in the summer, methanesulfonic acid (MSA) peaks in the autumn, and stable isotopes display a strong seasonal cycle with the most depleted values occurring during the winter. Thin ice layers representing infrequent summertime melt were also used to identify summer layers in the core. Analysis of approximately one meter sections of the core via nondestructive gamma spectrometry over depths from 84 to 124 m identified a strong radioactive cesium-137 peak at 89 m which corresponds to the 1963 layer deposited during extensive atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. Peaks in the sulfate and chloride record have been used for the preliminary identification of volcanic signals preserved in the ice core, including ten events since 1883. We are confident that the combination of robust annual layers combined with reference horizons provides a timescale for the 20th century that has an error of less than 0.5 years, making calibrations between ice core records and the instrumental climate data particularly robust. Initial annual layer counting through the entire 198 m suggests the Denali Ice

The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibler, William D., III

1992-01-01

The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Solar and Volcanic Modulation of Little Ice Age Climate in the Tropical Andes, Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polissar, P. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Wolfe, A. P.; Rull, V.; Bezada, M.

2004-12-01

The underlying causes of late-Holocene climate variability in the tropics are incompletely understood. Here, we report a 1500-year reconstruction of climate history in the Venezuelan Andes using lake sediment records from four sites. This reconstruction is based upon accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon and Pb-210 dating, sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, geochemistry, pollen and stable isotope (C, N) measurements. In the Laguna Mucubaji watershed four distinct glacial advances occurred between 1250 and 1810 A.D. The earliest advance began during an extended period of higher global volcanic activity. The subsequent three advances were coincident with minima in solar activity (reconstructed from Be-10 and C-14 records). The Mucubají glacial activity in the Venezuelan Andes coincides with other records of Little Ice Age (LIA) glacial advances in S. America. Comparison of modern glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) in Venezuela with the Mucubaji LIA glacier ELA indicates an ELA depression of at least 300 m. Both a decline in temperature and increase in precipitation are required to explain the ELA depression. The precipitation increase is supported by increased catchment erosion recorded in L. Blanca sediments. Pollen records from two sites in the Venezuelan Andes also indicate wetter and colder conditions during the LIA.

Climatic Changes on Tibetan Plateau Based on Ice Core Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, T.

2008-12-01

Climatic changes have been reconstructed for the Tibetan Plateau based on ice core records. The Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau presents climatic changes in the past 100,000 years, thus is comparative with that from Vostok ice core in Antarctica and GISP2 record in Arctic. These three records share an important common feature, i.e., our climate is not stable. It is also evident that the major patterns of climatic changes are similar on the earth. Why does climatic change over the earth follow a same pattern? It might be attributed to solar radiation. We found that the cold periods correspond to low insolation periods, and warm periods to high insolation periods. We found abrupt climatic change in the ice core climatic records, which presented dramatic temperature variation of as much as 10 °C in 50 or 60 years. Our major challenge in the study of both climate and environment is that greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 are possibly amplifying global warming, though at what degree remains unclear. One of the ways to understand the role of greenhouse gases is to reconstruct the past greenhouse gases recorded in ice. In 1997, we drilled an ice core from 7100 m a.s.l. in the Himalayas to reconstruct methane record. Based on the record, we found seasonal cycles in methane variation. In particular, the methane concentration is high in summer, suggestiing active methane emission from wet land in summer. Based on the seasonal cycle, we can reconstruct the methane fluctuation history in the past 500 years. The most prominent feature of the methane record in the Himalayan ice core is the abrupt increase since 1850 A.D.. This is closely related to the industrial revolution worldwide. We can also observe sudden decrease in methane concentration during the World War I and World War II. It implies that the industrial revolution has dominated the atmospheric greenhouse gas emission for about 100 years. Besides, the average methane concentration in the Himalayan ice core is

Sea ice and polar climate in the NCAR CSM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weatherly, J.W.; Briegleb, B.P.; Large, W.G.

The Climate System Model (CSM) consists of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice components linked by a flux coupler, which computes fluxes of energy and momentum between components. The sea-ice component consists of a thermodynamic formulation for ice, snow, and leads within the ice pack, and ice dynamics using the cavitating-fluid ice rheology, which allows for the compressive strength of ice but ignores shear viscosity. The results of a 300-yr climate simulation are presented, with the focus on sea ice and the atmospheric forcing over sea ice in the polar regions. The atmospheric model results are compared to analyses from themore » European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other observational sources. The sea-ice concentrations and velocities are compared to satellite observational data. The atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in CSM exhibits a high in the central Arctic displaced poleward from the observed Beaufort high. The Southern Hemisphere SLP over sea ice is generally 5 mb lower than observed. Air temperatures over sea ice in both hemispheres exhibit cold biases of 2--4 K. The precipitation-minus-evaporation fields in both hemispheres are greatly improved over those from earlier versions of the atmospheric GCM.« less

Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

2013-12-01

Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

Ice core records of climate variability on the Third Pole with emphasis on the Guliya ice cap, western Kunlun Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Lonnie G.; Yao, Tandong; Davis, Mary E.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Wu, Guangjian; Porter, Stacy E.; Xu, Baiqing; Lin, Ping-Nan; Wang, Ninglian; Beaudon, Emilie; Duan, Keqin; Sierra-Hernández, M. Roxana; Kenny, Donald V.

2018-05-01

Records of recent climate from ice cores drilled in 2015 on the Guliya ice cap in the western Kunlun Mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, which with the Himalaya comprises the Third Pole (TP), demonstrate that this region has become warmer and moister since at least the middle of the 19th century. Decadal-scale linkages are suggested between ice core temperature and snowfall proxies, North Atlantic oceanic and atmospheric processes, Arctic temperatures, and Indian summer monsoon intensity. Correlations between annual-scale oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) and tropical western Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures are also demonstrated. Comparisons of climate records during the last millennium from ice cores acquired throughout the TP illustrate centennial-scale differences between monsoon and westerlies dominated regions. Among these records, Guliya shows the highest rate of warming since the end of the Little Ice Age, but δ18O data over the last millennium from TP ice cores support findings that elevation-dependent warming is most pronounced in the Himalaya. This, along with the decreasing precipitation rates in the Himalaya region, is having detrimental effects on the cryosphere. Although satellite monitoring of glaciers on the TP indicates changes in surface area, only a few have been directly monitored for mass balance and ablation from the surface. This type of ground-based study is essential to obtain a better understanding of the rate of ice shrinkage on the TP.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-01-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth’s orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets. PMID:29180424

An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, T.

2008-12-01

Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions

Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

2014-02-01

We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

Implications of 36Cl exposure ages from Skye, northwest Scotland for the timing of ice stream deglaciation and deglacial ice dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, David; Rinterknecht, Vincent; Austin, William E. N.; Bates, Richard; Benn, Douglas I.; Scourse, James D.; Bourlès, Didier L.; Hibbert, Fiona D.

2016-10-01

Geochronological constraints on the deglaciation of former marine based ice streams provide information on the rates and modes by which marine based ice sheets have responded to external forcing factors such as climate change. This paper presents new 36Cl cosmic ray exposure dating from boulders located on two moraines (Glen Brittle and Loch Scavaig) in southern Skye, northwest Scotland. Ages from the Glen Brittle moraines constrain deglaciation of a major marine terminating ice stream, the Barra-Donegal Ice Stream that drained the former British-Irish Ice Sheet, depending on choice of production method and scaling model this occurred 19.9 ± 1.5-17.6 ± 1.3 ka ago. We compare this timing of deglaciation to existing geochronological data and changes in a variety of potential forcing factors constrained through proxy records and numerical models to determine what deglaciation age is most consistent with existing evidence. Another small section of moraine, the Scavaig moraine, is traced offshore through multibeam swath-bathymetry and interpreted as delimiting a later stillstand/readvance stage following ice stream deglaciation. Additional cosmic ray exposure dating from the onshore portion of this moraine indicate that it was deposited 16.3 ± 1.3-15.2 ± 0.9 ka ago. When calculated using the most up-to-date scaling scheme this time of deposition is, within uncertainty, the same as the timing of a widely identified readvance, the Wester Ross Readvance, observed elsewhere in northwest Scotland. This extends the area over which this readvance has potentially occurred, reinforcing the view that it was climatically forced.

Ice Wedges as Winter Climate Archives - New Results from the Northeast Siberian Arctic and Discussion of the Paleoclimatic Value of Ice Wedges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opel, T.; Meyer, H.; Laepple, T.; Rehfeld, K.; Mollenhauer, G.; Alexander, D.; Murton, J.

2017-12-01

Arctic climate has experienced major changes over the past millennia that are yet not fully understood in terms of external and internal controls, spatial, temporal, and seasonal patterns. The interpretation of stable isotope data in permafrost ice wedges provides unique information on past winter climate, not or not sufficiently captured by other Arctic climate archives. Ice wedges grow in polygonal patterns owing to frost cracking of the frozen ground in winter and frost-crack filling mostly by snowmelt in spring. Their oxygen isotope values are indicative of temperatures in the cold period of the year (meteorological winter and spring). Recently, an ice-wedge record from the Lena River Delta suggested for the first time, that Siberian winter temperatures were warming throughout the Holocene, contradicting most other Arctic paleoclimate reconstructions. As this was based on a single record, the representativity and spatial extent of the reconstructed winter warming signal remained unclear. In this two-part contribution, we first present a new ice-wedge δ18O record from the Oyogos Yar mainland coast (Northeast Siberian Arctic) and then discuss more generally the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges. The new Oyogos Yar ice-wedge record is based on paired stable-isotope and radiocarbon-age data and spans the last two millennia. It confirms the long-term winter warming signal as well as the unprecedented temperature rise in the last decades. This demonstrates that winter warming over the last millennia is a coherent feature in the Northeastern Siberian Arctic, supporting the hypothesis of an insolation-driven seasonal Holocene temperature evolution followed by a strong warming most likely related to anthropogenic forcing. Considering additional ice-wedge data from the Siberian Laptev Sea region we discuss the paleoclimatic value of ice wedges as high-quality winter climate archive. We assess potentials and challenges of this so far rather understudied source of

Evaluating the Duration and Continuity of Potential Climate Records From the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehrl, Laura; Conway, Howard; Holschuh, Nicholas; Campbell, Seth; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; Spaulding, Nicole E.

2018-05-01

The current ice core record extends back 800,000 years. Geologic and glaciological evidence suggests that the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East Antarctica, may preserve a continuous record that extends further back in time. In this study, we use ice-penetrating radar and existing age constraints to map the internal stratigraphy and age structure of the Allan Hills Main Ice Field. The dated isochrones provide constraints for an ice flow model to estimate the age of ice near the bed. Previous drilling in the region recovered stratigraphically disturbed sections of ice up to 2.7 million years old. Our study identifies a site 5 km upstream, which likely preserves a continuous record through Marine Isotope Stage 11 with the possibility that the record extends back 1 million years. Such records would provide new insight into the past climate and glacial history of the Ross Sea Sector.

Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

2017-12-01

The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

2014-08-21

During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

2014-01-01

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates

Cloud and ice in the planetary scale circulation and in climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, G. F.; Houghton, D. D.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Suomi, V. E.

1984-01-01

The roles of the cryosphere, and of cloud-radiative interactions are investigated. The effects clouds and ice have in the climate system are examined. The cloud radiation research attempts explain the modes of interaction (feedback) between raditive transfer, cloud formation, and atmospheric dynamics. The role of sea ice in weather and climate is also discussed. Models are used to describe the ice and atmospheric dynamics under study.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-04-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

Uranium isotopes and dissolved organic carbon in loess permafrost: Modeling the age of ancient ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ewing, Stephanie A.; Paces, James B.; O'Donnell, J.A.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Kanevskiy, M.Z.; Aiken, George R.; Shur, Y.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Striegl, Robert G.

2015-01-01

The residence time of ice in permafrost is an indicator of past climate history, and of the resilience and vulnerability of high-latitude ecosystems to global change. Development of geochemical indicators of ground-ice residence times in permafrost will advance understanding of the circumstances and evidence of permafrost formation, preservation, and thaw in response to climate warming and other disturbance. We used uranium isotopes to evaluate the residence time of segregated ground ice from ice-rich loess permafrost cores in central Alaska. Activity ratios of 234U vs. 238U (234U/238U) in water from thawed core sections ranged between 1.163 and 1.904 due to contact of ice and associated liquid water with mineral surfaces over time. Measured (234U/238U) values in ground ice showed an overall increase with depth in a series of five neighboring cores up to 21 m deep. This is consistent with increasing residence time of ice with depth as a result of accumulation of loess over time, as well as characteristic ice morphologies, high segregated ice content, and wedge ice, all of which support an interpretation of syngenetic permafrost formation associated with loess deposition. At the same time, stratigraphic evidence indicates some past sediment redistribution and possibly shallow thaw among cores, with local mixing of aged thaw waters. Using measures of surface area and a leaching experiment to determine U distribution, a geometric model of (234U/238U) evolution suggests mean ages of up to ∼200 ky BP in the deepest core, with estimated uncertainties of up to an order of magnitude. Evidence of secondary coatings on loess grains with elevated (234U/238U) values and U concentrations suggests that refinement of the geometric model to account for weathering processes is needed to reduce uncertainty. We suggest that in this area of deep ice-rich loess permafrost, ice bodies have been preserved from the last glacial period (10–100 ky BP), despite subsequent

An abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre as trigger of Little Ice Age-type episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann H.

2017-02-01

We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling.

PubMed

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-02-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO 2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

PubMed Central

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun’ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-01-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. PMID:28246631

Aeolian stratigraphy describes ice-age paleoenvironments in unglaciated Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Groves, Pamela; Kunz, Michael L.; Farquharson, Louise M.; Reanier, Richard E.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wooller, Matthew J.

2018-02-01

Terrestrial paleoenvironmental records with high dating resolution extending into the last ice age are rare from the western Arctic. Such records can test the synchronicity and extent of ice-age climatic events and define how Arctic landscapes respond to rapid climate changes. Here we describe the stratigraphy and sedimentology of a yedoma deposit in Arctic Alaska (the Carter Section) dating to between 37,000 and 9000 calibrated radiocarbon years BP (37-9 ka) and containing detailed records of loess and sand-sheet sedimentation, soil development, carbon storage, and permafrost dynamics. Alternation between sand-sheet and loess deposition provides a proxy for the extent and activity of the Ikpikpuk Sand Sea (ISS), a large dune field located immediately upwind. Warm, moist interstadial times (ca. 37, 36.3-32.5, and 15-13 ka) triggered floodplain aggradation, permafrost thaw, reduced loess deposition, increased vegetation cover, and rapid soil development accompanied by enhanced carbon storage. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 28-18 ka), rapid loess deposition took place on a landscape where vegetation was sparse and non-woody. The most intense aeolian activity occurred after the LGM between ca. 18 and 15 ka when sand sheets fringing the ISS expanded over the site, possibly in response to increasingly droughty conditions as summers warmed and active layers deepened. With the exception of this lagged LGM response, the record of aeolian activity at the Carter Section correlates with other paleoenvironmental records from unglaciated Siberia and Alaska. Overall, rapid shifts in geomorphology, soils, vegetation, and permafrost portray an ice-age landscape where, in contrast to the Holocene, environmental change was chronic and dominated by aeolian processes.

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the GISS 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric GCM to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Integrating Teaching about the Little Ice Age with History, Art, and Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glenn, William Harold

1996-01-01

Discusses climate change during the Little Ice Age as experienced during several historical events, including the settlement and demise of the Norse Greenland colonies, the landing of the Pilgrims at Plymouth, and both the Battle of Trenton and Washington's encampment at Valley Forge during the American Revolution. Associated artistic and literary…

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

Inspiring Climate Education Excellence(ICEE): Developing Elearning professional development modules - secondary science teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kellagher, E.; Buhr, S. M.; Lynds, S. E.; McCaffrey, M. S.; Cires Education Outreach

2011-12-01

Inspiring Climate Education Excellence (ICEE) is a NASA-funded project to develop content knowledge and knowledge of effective teaching strategies in climate education among secondary science teachers. ICEE resources are aligned with the Essential Principles of Climate Science. Building upon a needs assessment and face to face workshop, ICEE resources include iTunesU videos, an ICEE 101 resource site with videos and peer-reviewed learning activities, and a moderated online forum. Self-directed modules and an online course are being developed around concepts and topics in which teachers express the most interest and need for instruction. ICEE resources include attention to effective teaching strategies, such as awareness of student misconceptions, strategies for forestalling controversy and advice from master teachers on implementation and curriculum development. The resources are being developed in partnership with GLOBE, and the National Science Digital Library (NSDL) and are informed by the work of the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) project. ICEE will help to meet the professional development needs of teachers, including those participating in the GLOBE Student Climate Research Campaign.

POLLiCE (POLLen in the iCE): climate history from Adamello ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristofori, Antonella; Festi, Daniela; Maggi, Valter; Casarotto, Christian; Bertoni, Elena; Vernesi, Cristiano

2017-04-01

Glaciers can be viewed as the most complete and effective past climate and environment archives severely threatened by climate change. These threats are particularly dramatic across European Alps. The Adamello glacier is the largest, 16.4 km2, and deepest, 270 m, Italian glacier. We aim at estimating biodiversity changes over the last centuries in relation to climate and human activities in the Adamello catchment area. We, therefore, recently launched the POLLiCE project (pollice.fmach.it) for specifically targeting the biological component (e.g. pollen, leaves, plant remains) trapped in ice cores. Classical morphological pollen analysis will be accompanied by DNA metabarcoding. This approach has the potential to provide a detailed taxonomical identification - at least genus level- thus circumventing the limitations of microscopic analysis such as time-consuming procedures and shared features of pollen grains among different taxa. Moreover, ice cores are subjected to chemical and physical analyses - stable isotopes, ions, hyperspectral imaging, etc.- for stratigraphic and climatic determination of seasonality. A pilot drilling was conducted on March 2015 and the resulting 5 m core has been analysed in terms of pollen spectrum, stable isotopes and ions in order to demonstrate the feasibility of the study. The first encouraging results showed that even in this superficial core a stratigraphy is evident with indication of seasonality as highlighted by both by pollen taxa and stable isotopes. Finally, DNA has been successfully extracted and amplified with specific DNA barcodes. A medium drilling was performed on April 2016 with the extraction of a 45 m ice core. The analysis of this core constitutes the subject of a specific research project, CALICE*, just funded by Euregio Science Fund (IPN57). The entire depth, 270 m, of the Adamello glacier is scheduled to be drilled in 2018 winter to secure the unique memory archived by the ice. * See EGU2017 poster by Festi et al

Iron fertilization of the Subantarctic Ocean during the last ice age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Garcia, A.

2015-12-01

Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean. The scarcity of iron limits marine productivity and carbon uptake in one-quarter of the world ocean where the concentration of major nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen) is perennially high. The Southern Ocean is the region where variations in iron availability can have the largest effect on Earth's carbon cycle through its fertilizing effect on marine ecosystems. Paleoceanographic records from the Subantarctic Atlantic have revealed a remarkable correlation between phytoplankton productivity and aeolian iron flux during glacial periods supporting the iron fertilization hypothesis. In addition, a recent study has shown that peak glacial times and millennial cold events were nearly universally associated not only with increases in dust flux and export production, but also with an increase in nutrient consumption (the last indicated by higher foraminifera-bound δ15N) (Martinez-Garcia et al. 2014). This combination of changes is uniquely consistent with ice age iron fertilization of the Subantarctic Atlantic. The strengthening of the biological pump associated with the observed increase in Subantarctic nutrient consumption during the high-dust intervals of the last two ice ages can explain up to ~40 ppm of the CO2 decrease that characterizes the transitions from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions. However, the impact of iron fertilization in other sectors of the Southern Ocean characterized by lower ice age dust fluxes than the Atlantic remains unclear. A series of recently published records from the Subantarctic Pacific indicate that dust deposition and marine export production were three times higher during glacial periods than during interglacials (Lamy et al. 2014). Here we present new measurements of foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes in a sediment core located in the

Help, I don’t know which sea ice algorithm to use?!: Developing an authoritative sea ice climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W.; Stroeve, J.; Duerr, R. E.; Fetterer, F. M.

2009-12-01

The declining Arctic sea ice is one of the most dramatic indicators of climate change and is being recognized as a key factor in future climate impacts on biology, human activities, and global climate change. As such, the audience for sea ice data is expanding well beyond the sea ice community. The most comprehensive sea ice data are from a series of satellite-borne passive microwave sensors. They provide a near-complete daily timeseries of sea ice concentration and extent since late-1978. However, there are many complicating issues in using such data, particularly for novice users. First, there is not one single, definitive algorithm, but several. And even for a given algorithm, different processing and quality-control methods may be used, depending on the source. Second, for all algorithms, there are uncertainties in any retrieved value. In general, these limitations are well-known: low spatial-resolution results in an imprecise ice edge determination and lack of small-scale detail (e.g., lead detection) within the ice pack; surface melt depresses concentration values during summer; thin ice is underestimated in some algorithms; some algorithms are sensitive to physical surface temperature; other surface features (e.g., snow) can influence retrieved data. While general error estimates are available for concentration values, currently the products do not carry grid-cell level or even granule level data quality information. Finally, metadata and data provenance information are limited, both of which are essential for future reprocessing. Here we describe the progress to date toward development of sea ice concentration products and outline the future steps needed to complete a sea ice climate data record.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

Ice Age Sea Level Change on a Dynamic Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Latychev, K.; Rovere, A.; Moucha, R.

2014-12-01

Changes in global mean sea level (GMSL) are a sensitive indicator of climate variability during the current ice age. Reconstructions are largely based on local sea level records, and the mapping to GMSL is computed from simulations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) on 1-D Earth models. We argue, using two case studies, that resolving important, outstanding issues in ice age paleoclimate requires a more sophisticated consideration of mantle structure and dynamics. First, we consider the coral record from Barbados, which is widely used to constrain global ice volume changes since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21 ka). Analyses of the record using 1-D viscoelastic Earth models have estimated a GMSL change since LGM of ~120 m, a value at odds with analyses of other far field records, which range from 130-135 m. We revisit the Barbados case using a GIA model that includes laterally varying Earth structure (Austermann et al., Nature Geo., 2013) and demonstrate that neglecting this structure, in particular the high-viscosity slab in the mantle linked to the subduction of the South American plate, has biased (low) previous estimates of GMSL change since LGM by ~10 m. Our analysis brings the Barbados estimate into accord with studies from other far-field sites. Second, we revisit estimates of GMSL during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP, ~3 Ma), which was characterized by temperatures 2-3°C higher than present. The ice volume deficit during this period is a source of contention, with estimates ranging from 0-40 m GMSL equivalent. We argue that refining estimates of ice volume during MPWP requires a correction for mantle flow induced dynamic topography (DT; Rowley et al., Science, 2013), a signal neglected in previous studies of ice age sea level change. We present estimates of GIA- and DT-corrected elevations of MPWP shorelines from the U.S. east coast, Australia and South Africa in an attempt to reconcile these records with a single GMSL value.

Potential Climatic Effects on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, R. A.

1984-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petersen, Mark Roger

The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolutionmore » below ice shelves and near grounding lines.« less

The Little Ice Age in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jomelli, V.; Cooley, D.; Naveau, P.; Rabatel, A.

2003-12-01

The period known as the Little Ice Age, from the 17th to the 19th century, brought a cooling of around 0.5 degrees Celsius as well as varyingly humid episodes Eurasia and North America. Because of a lack of long paleoclimatic time series in the tropical Andes, it is still unclear if similar cooling occurred over these tropical and Southern Hemisphere regions. Furthermore, if changes did take place, it is currently not well established if they were temporally synchronous or shifted with respect of the variations in the Northern Hemisphere or the globe. To look into this important climatic question and for advancing our understanding of the past climate links between the tropics and higher latitudes, 25 glaciers located in Bolivia and in Peru were carefully selected. Glacial activity and environmental changes were analyzed using lichenometry. Largest lichen diameters were measured in the different glacial basins. To better analyze these maximum diameters and to more appropriately represent uncertainty and the character of this collected data, age estimates of the different moraine systems were derived using extreme value theory rather than the traditional averaging. The results reveal two particular phases of glacier growth, 1550-1600 and 1800-1850. These two phases have also been identified in other proxy records, such as ice-cores and documentary data (particularly from church chronicles). In order to understand the climatic changes that could have contributed to the glacial variations, a simple model based on both precipitations and temperatures is applied to estimate mass balance questions in the basins. A cooling of the order of 0.5 C seems to be the most consistent with the data. Finally, these findings are compared with the better-known histories of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude glaciers.

Reassessment of ice-age cooling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Mix, A.C.

1999-01-01

The CLIMAP project's reconstruction of past sea surface temperature inferred limited ice-age cooling in the tropical oceans. This conclusion has been controversial, however, because of the greater cooling indicated by other terrestrial and ocean proxy data. A new faunal sea surface temperature reconstruction, calibrated using the variation of foraminiferal species through time, better represents ice-age faunal assemblages and so reveals greater cooling than CLIMAP in the equatorial current systems of the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic oceans. Here we explore the climatic implications of this revised sea surface temperature field for the Last Glacial Maximum using an atmospheric general circulation model. Relative to model results obtained using CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, the cooler equatorial oceans modify seasonal air temperatures by 1-2??C or more across parts of South America, Africa and southeast Asia and cause attendant changes in regional moisture patterns. In our simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Amazon lowlands, for example, are cooler and drier, whereas the Andean highlands are cooler and wetter than the control simulation. Our results may help to resolve some of the apparent disagreements between oceanic and continental proxy climate data. Moreover, they suggest a wind-related mechanism for enhancing the export of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific oceans, which may link variations in deep-water production and high-latitude climate changes to equatorial sea surface temperatures.

ICEX: Ice and Climate Experiment. Report of science and applications working group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The Ice and Climate Experiment (ICEX), a proposed program of coordinated investigations of the ice and snow masses of the Earth (the "cryosphere") is described. These investigations are to be carried out with the help of satellite, aircraft, and surface based observations. Measurements derived from the investigations will be applied to an understanding of the role of the cryosphere in the system that determines the Earth's climate, to a better prediction of the responses of the ice and snow to climatic change, to studies of the basic nature of ice forms and ice dynamics, and to the development of operational techniques for assisting such activities in the polar regions as transportation, exploitation of natural resources, and petroleum exploration and production. A high-inclination satellite system with a set of remote-sensing instruments specially tailored to the task of observing the important features of snow, sea ice, and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic is to be used to record the near-simultaneous observations of multiple geophysical parameters by complementary sensors.

Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltaos, S.; Prowse, T.; Bonsal, B.; Mackay, R.; Romolo, L.; Pietroniro, A.; Toth, B.

2006-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. In recent decades, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Building on previous work that has identified the salient hydro-climatic factors, the frequency of ice-jam floods is considered under present (1961-1990) and future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. The latter are determined using temperature and precipitation output from the Canadian Climate Centre's second-generation Global Climate Model (CGCM2) for two different greenhouse-gas/sulphate emission scenarios. The analysis indicates that the ice season is likely to be reduced by 2-4 weeks, while future ice covers would be slightly thinner than they are at present. More importantly, a large part of the Peace River basin is expected to experience frequent and sustained mid-winter thaws, leading to significant melt and depleted snowpacks in the spring. Using an empirical relationship between ice-jam flood occurrence and size of the spring snowpack, a severe reduction in the frequency of ice-jam flooding is predicted under both future-climate scenarios that were considered. In turn, this trend is likely to accelerate the loss of aquatic habitat in the PAD region. Implications for potential mitigation and adaptation strategies are discussed. Copyright

Climatic variability in the Gulf of California associated with the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores-Castillo, O. D. L. A.; Martínez-López, A.; Perez-Cruz, L. L.

2017-12-01

Marine ecosystems close to the coasts are highly susceptible to be affected both by the variability due to natural processes of the climate system as well as by anthropogenic activities. The Gulf of California, located near the tropical Pacific region, whose influence on the long-term global climate has already been demonstrated, represents a great opportunity to assess the regional response to these effects. This study reconstructs some of the oceanographic and climatic conditions that occurred simultaneously with the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic periods in the southern region of the gulf. This reconstruction was based on the use of multiple indirect indicators or proxies of paleoproduction and geochemistry (determined by isotope-ratios mass spectrometer interfaced with an elemental analyzer and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry) preserved in a high-resolution laminated sedimentary sequence collected in the slope of southeastern coast of the Gulf of California (24.2822 ° N and 108.3037 ° W). The main effects of these periods were higher precipitation conditions that generated a greater fluvial contribution during the MWP besides a bigger oxygenation of the water mass near the bottom. These conditions were followed by an increase in exported production, decrease in the oxygen content of the water near the bottom and an increase in the denitrification during the transition to the LIA. The results confirm the existence of oceanographic and climatic variability on a secular scale in the Gulf of California associated with both global climatic periods.

Response of a comprehensive climate model to a broad range of external forcings: relevance for deep ocean ventilation and the development of late Cenozoic ice ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galbraith, Eric; de Lavergne, Casimir

2018-03-01

Over the past few million years, the Earth descended from the relatively warm and stable climate of the Pliocene into the increasingly dramatic ice age cycles of the Pleistocene. The influences of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 on land-based ice sheets have long been considered as the key drivers of the ice ages, but less attention has been paid to their direct influences on the circulation of the deep ocean. Here we provide a broad view on the influences of CO2, orbital forcing and ice sheet size according to a comprehensive Earth system model, by integrating the model to equilibrium under 40 different combinations of the three external forcings. We find that the volume contribution of Antarctic (AABW) vs. North Atlantic (NADW) waters to the deep ocean varies widely among the simulations, and can be predicted from the difference between the surface densities at AABW and NADW deep water formation sites. Minima of both the AABW-NADW density difference and the AABW volume occur near interglacial CO2 (270-400 ppm). At low CO2, abundant formation and northward export of sea ice in the Southern Ocean contributes to very salty and dense Antarctic waters that dominate the global deep ocean. Furthermore, when the Earth is cold, low obliquity (i.e. a reduced tilt of Earth's rotational axis) enhances the Antarctic water volume by expanding sea ice further. At high CO2, AABW dominance is favoured due to relatively warm subpolar North Atlantic waters, with more dependence on precession. Meanwhile, a large Laurentide ice sheet steers atmospheric circulation as to strengthen the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but cools the Southern Ocean remotely, enhancing Antarctic sea ice export and leading to very salty and expanded AABW. Together, these results suggest that a `sweet spot' of low CO2, low obliquity and relatively small ice sheets would have poised the AMOC for interruption, promoting Dansgaard-Oeschger-type abrupt change. The deep ocean temperature and

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Genomic Evidence of Widespread Admixture from Polar Bears into Brown Bears during the Last Ice Age.

PubMed

Cahill, James A; Heintzman, Peter D; Harris, Kelley; Teasdale, Matthew D; Kapp, Joshua; Soares, Andre E R; Stirling, Ian; Bradley, Daniel; Edwards, Ceiridwen J; Graim, Kiley; Kisleika, Aliaksandr A; Malev, Alexander V; Monaghan, Nigel; Green, Richard E; Shapiro, Beth

2018-05-01

Recent genomic analyses have provided substantial evidence for past periods of gene flow from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) into Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos), with some analyses suggesting a link between climate change and genomic introgression. However, because it has mainly been possible to sample bears from the present day, the timing, frequency, and evolutionary significance of this admixture remains unknown. Here, we analyze genomic DNA from three additional and geographically distinct brown bear populations, including two that lived temporally close to the peak of the last ice age. We find evidence of admixture in all three populations, suggesting that admixture between these species has been common in their recent evolutionary history. In addition, analyses of ten fossil bears from the now-extinct Irish population indicate that admixture peaked during the last ice age, whereas brown bear and polar bear ranges overlapped. Following this peak, the proportion of polar bear ancestry in Irish brown bears declined rapidly until their extinction. Our results support a model in which ice age climate change created geographically widespread conditions conducive to admixture between polar bears and brown bears, as is again occurring today. We postulate that this model will be informative for many admixing species pairs impacted by climate change. Our results highlight the power of paleogenomics to reveal patterns of evolutionary change that are otherwise masked in contemporary data.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

2010-01-01

A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

2013-12-01

A general increase in atmospheric humidity is expected with global warming, projected with GCMs, reported with remote sensing and in situ observations (Trenberth et al. 2005; Dessler, and Davis 2010; IPCC 2007, Zhang et al. 2012.) In the Arctic this increase has been and will be especially prominent triggered by the dramatic retreat of the sea ice. In the warm season this retreat provides an abundant water vapor supply to the dry Arctic atmosphere. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere and after the two extremely anomalous low-ice years (2007 and 2012) it is right time to look for the impact of these changes in the high latitudinal hydrological cycle: first of all in the atmospheric humidity and precipitation changes. Usually, humidity (unless extremely high or low) does not critically affect the human activities and life style. However, in the high latitudes this characteristic has an additional facet: higher humidity causes higher ice condensation from the air (icing and hoar frost) on the infrastructure and transports in the absence of precipitation. The hoar frost and icing (in Russian: gololed) are measured at the Russian meteorological network and reports of icing of the wires are quantitative measurements. While hoar frost can be considered as a minor annoyance, icing may have important societal repercussions. In the Arctic icing occurs mostly during relatively warm months when atmosphere holds maximum amount of water vapor (and is projected to have more). Freezing rain and drizzle contribute to gololed formation and thus this variable (being above some thresholds) presents an important characteristic that can affect the infrastructure (communication lines elevated at the telegraph poles, antennas, etc.), became a Socially-Important climatic Variable (SIV). The former USSR observational program includes gololed among the documented weather phenomena and this allowed RIHMI to create Electronic Reference Book on

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Cosmogenic nuclide age estimate for Laurentide Ice Sheet recession from the terminal moraine, New Jersey, USA, and constraints on latest Pleistocene ice sheet history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corbett, Lee B.; Bierman, Paul R.; Stone, Byron D.; Caffee, Marc W.; Larsen, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

The time at which the Laurentide Ice Sheet reached its maximum extent and subsequently retreated from its terminal moraine in New Jersey has been constrained by bracketing radiocarbon ages on preglacial and postglacial sediments. Here, we present measurements of in situ produced 10Be and 26Al in 16 quartz-bearing samples collected from bedrock outcrops and glacial erratics just north of the terminal moraine in north-central New Jersey; as such, our ages represent a minimum limit on the timing of ice recession from the moraine. The data set includes field and laboratory replicates, as well as replication of the entire data set five years after initial measurement. We find that recession of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from the terminal moraine in New Jersey began before 25.2±2.1 ka (10Be, n=16, average, 1 standard deviation). This cosmogenic nuclide exposure age is consistent with existing limiting radiocarbon ages in the study area and cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages from the terminal moraine on Martha’s Vineyard ~300 km to the northeast. The age we propose for Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat from the New Jersey terminal position is broadly consistent with regional and global climate records of the last glacial maximum termination and records of fluvial incision.

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

2018-02-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, Daniel L.; Caine, Nel; McKnight, Diane M.; Williams, Mark W.; Hell, Katherina; Miller, Matthew P.; Hart, Sarah J.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.

2016-01-01

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-01-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > -1), and negative (SOI < -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988

Global Climate Change: Valuable Insights from Concordant and Discordant Ice Core Histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosley-Thompson, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Porter, S. E.; Goodwin, B. P.; Wilson, A. B.

2014-12-01

Earth's ice cover is responding to the ongoing large-scale warming driven in part by anthropogenic forces. The highest tropical and subtropical ice fields are dramatically shrinking and/or thinning and unique climate histories archived therein are now threatened, compromised or lost. Many ice fields in higher latitudes are also experiencing and recording climate system changes although these are often manifested in less evident and spectacular ways. The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has experienced a rapid, widespread and dramatic warming over the last 60 years. Carefully selected ice fields in the AP allow reconstruction of long histories of key climatic variables. As more proxy climate records are recovered it is clear they reflect a combination of expected and unexpected responses to seemingly similar climate forcings. Recently acquired temperature and precipitation histories from the Bruce Plateau are examined within the context provided by other cores recently collected in the AP. Understanding the differences and similarities among these records provides a better understanding of the forces driving climate variability in the AP over the last century. The Arctic is also rapidly warming. The δ18O records from the Bona-Churchill and Mount Logan ice cores from southeast Alaska and southwest Yukon Territory, respectively, do not record this strong warming. The Aleutian Low strongly influences moisture transport to this geographically complex region, yet its interannual variability is preserved differently in these cores located just 110 km apart. Mount Logan is very sensitive to multi-decadal to multi-centennial climate shifts in the tropical Pacific while low frequency variability on Bona-Churchill is more strongly connected to Western Arctic sea ice extent. There is a natural tendency to focus more strongly on commonalities among records, particularly on regional scales. However, it is also important to investigate seemingly poorly correlated records, particularly

Carbonaceous aerosol tracers in ice-cores record multi-decadal climate oscillations

PubMed Central

Seki, Osamu; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Bendle, James A. P.; Izawa, Yusuke; Suzuki, Ikuko; Shiraiwa, Takayuki; Fujii, Yoshiyuki

2015-01-01

Carbonaceous aerosols influence the climate via direct and indirect effects on radiative balance. However, the factors controlling the emissions, transport and role of carbonaceous aerosols in the climate system are highly uncertain. Here we investigate organic tracers in ice cores from Greenland and Kamchatka and find that, throughout the period covered by the records (1550 to 2000 CE), the concentrations and composition of biomass burning-, soil bacterial- and plant wax- tracers correspond to Arctic and regional temperatures as well as the warm season Arctic Oscillation (AO) over multi-decadal time-scales. Specifically, order of magnitude decreases (increases) in abundances of ice-core organic tracers, likely representing significant decreases (increases) in the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols, occur during colder (warmer) phases in the high latitudinal Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about causality and possible carbonaceous aerosol feedback mechanisms. Our work opens new avenues for ice core research. Translating concentrations of organic tracers (μg/kg-ice or TOC) from ice-cores, into estimates of the atmospheric loading of carbonaceous aerosols (μg/m3) combined with new model constraints on the strength and sign of climate forcing by carbonaceous aerosols should be a priority for future research. PMID:26411576

Coherent Sea Ice Variations in the Nordic Seas and Abrupt Greenland Climate Changes over Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadatzki, H.; Berben, S.; Dokken, T.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Jansen, E.

2016-12-01

Rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas may have played a crucial role in controlling the abruptness of ocean circulation and climate changes associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial (Li et al., 2010; Dokken et al., 2013). To investigate the role of sea ice for abrupt climate changes, we produced a sea ice record from the Norwegian Sea Core MD99-2284 at a temporal resolution approaching that of ice core records, covering four D-O cycles at ca. 32-41 ka. This record is based on the sea ice diatom biomarker IP25, open-water phytoplankton biomarker dinosterol and semi-quantitative phytoplankton-IP25 (PIP25) estimates. A detailed tephrochronology of MD99-2284 corroborates the tuning-based age model and independently constrains the GS9/GIS8 transition, allowing for direct comparison between our sediment and ice core records. For cold stadials we find extremely low fluxes of total organic carbon, dinosterol and IP25, which points to a general absence of open-water phytoplankton and ice algae production under a near-permanent sea ice cover. For the interstadials, in turn, all biomarker fluxes are strongly enhanced, reflecting a highly productive sea ice edge situation and implying largely open ocean conditions for the eastern Nordic Seas. As constrained by three tephra layers, we observe that the stadial-interstadial sea ice decline was rapid and may have induced a coeval abrupt northward shift in the Greenland precipitation moisture source as recorded in ice cores. The sea ice retreat also facilitated a massive heat release through deep convection in the previously stratified Nordic Seas, generating atmospheric warming of the D-O events. We thus conclude that rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas amplified oceanic reorganizations and were a key factor in controlling abrupt Greenland climate changes over D-O cycles. Dokken, T.M. et al., 2013. Paleoceanography 28, 491-502 Li, C. et al., 2010. Journ. Clim. 23, 5457-5475

Freshening of the Labrador Sea as a trigger for Little Ice Age development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Garcia, Montserrat; Kleiven, Helga (Kikki) F.; McManus, Jerry F.; Moffa-Sanchez, Paola; Broecker, Wallace S.; Flower, Benjamin P.

2017-04-01

Arctic freshwater discharges to the Labrador Sea from melting glaciers and sea ice can have a large impact on ocean circulation dynamics in the North Atlantic, modifying climate and deep water formation in this region. In this study, we present for the first time a high resolution record of ice rafting in the Labrador Sea over the last millennium to assess the effects of freshwater discharges in this region on ocean circulation and climate. The occurrence of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in the Labrador Sea was studied using sediments from Site GS06-144-03 (57.29° N, 48.37° W; 3432 m water depth). IRD from the fraction 63-150 µm shows particularly high concentrations during the intervals ˜ AD 1000-1100, ˜ 1150-1250, ˜ 1400-1450, ˜ 1650-1700 and ˜ 1750-1800. The first two intervals occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), whereas the others took place within the Little Ice Age (LIA). Mineralogical identification indicates that the main IRD source during the MCA was SE Greenland. In contrast, the concentration and relative abundance of hematite-stained grains reflects an increase in the contribution of Arctic ice during the LIA. The comparison of our Labrador Sea IRD records with other climate proxies from the subpolar North Atlantic allowed us to propose a sequence of processes that led to the cooling that occurred during the LIA, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. This study reveals that the warm climate of the MCA may have enhanced iceberg calving along the SE Greenland coast and, as a result, freshened the subpolar gyre (SPG). Consequently, SPG circulation switched to a weaker mode and reduced convection in the Labrador Sea, decreasing its contribution to the North Atlantic deep water formation and, thus, reducing the amount of heat transported to high latitudes. This situation of weak SPG circulation may have made the North Atlantic climate more unstable, inducing a state in which external forcings (e.g. reduced solar irradiance and volcanic

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest

PubMed Central

Loisel, Julie; MacDonald, Glen M.; Thomson, Marcus J.

2017-01-01

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest. PMID:29036207

Role of Atmospheric CO2 in the Ice Ages (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toggweiler, J. R.

2010-12-01

Ice cores from Antarctica provide our most highly resolved records of glacial-interglacial climate change. They feature big transitions every 100,000 years or so in which Antarctica warms by up to 10 deg. C while the level of atmospheric CO2 rises by up to 100 ppm. We have no other records like these from any other location, so the assumption is often made that the Earth's mean temperature varies like the temperatures in Antarctica. The striking co-variation between the two records is taken to mean 1) that there is a causal relationship between the global temperature and atmospheric CO2 and 2) that atmospheric CO2 is a powerful agent of climate change during the ice ages. The problem is that the mechanism most often invoked to explain the CO2 variations operates right next to Antarctica and, as such, provides a fairly direct way to explain the temperature variations in Antarctica as well. If so, Antarctic temperatures go up and down for the same reason that atmospheric CO2 goes up and down, in which case no causation can be inferred. Climate models suggest that the 100-ppm CO2 increases during the big transitions did not increase surface temperatures by more than 2 deg. C. This is not nearly enough to explain the observed variability. A better reason for thinking that atmospheric CO2 is important is that its temporal variations are concentrated in the 100,000-yr band. In my presentation I will argue that atmospheric CO2 is important because it has the longest time scale in the system. We observe empirically that atmospheric CO2 remains low for 50,000 years during the second half of each 100,000-yr cycle. The northern ice sheets become especially large toward the ends of these intervals, and it is large ice sheets that make the Earth especially cold. This leads me to conclude that atmospheric CO2 is important because of its slow and persistent influence on the northern ice sheets over the second half of each 100,000-yr cycle.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

Strengths and Weaknesses of Sea Ice as a Potential Early Indicator of Climate Change,

DTIC Science & Technology

Sea ice is examined for its potential as an early indicator of climate change by considering how well it satisfies four criteria listed as desired... climate change , sea ice is unlikely any time in the near future to be a definitive early indicator of climate change when considered by itself.

Rapid onset of Little Ice Age summer cold in the northern North Atlantic derived from precisely dated ice cap records (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, G. H.; Larsen, D.; Geirsdottir, A.; Refsnider, K. A.; Anderson, C.

2009-12-01

Precise radiocarbon dates on dead vegetation emerging beneath retreating non-erosive ice caps in NE Arctic Canada define the onset of ice cap growth, and provide a Holocene context for 20th Century warming. Although most plateau ice caps melted during the Medieval Warm Period, a few that are now disappearing remained intact since at least 350 AD. Little Ice Age ice cap inception occurred in two pulses, centered on 1250-1300 AD and around 1450 AD, with ice caps remaining in an expanded state until the warming of the past few decades. Ice cap inception occurred simultaneously (±10 years) over a 200 m elevational range, suggesting an abrupt onset of Little Ice Age cold, rather than a slow cooling over many decades. Similarly, a 3000 year annually resolved lacustrine record of glacier power and a complementary independent proxy for landscape instability in the highlands of central Iceland show an initial jump in both glacier power and landscape instability between 1250 and 1300 AD, with a second step-increase around 1450 AD, and dramatic increases in both proxies around 1800 AD, retracting in the 20th Century. A sub-decadal record of hillslope stability and within-lake primary productivity in sediments from a low-elevation lake in northern Iceland shows parallel changes at similar times. Sea ice proxies and historical records document the first appearance of sea ice around Iceland following Medieval time about 1250 AD. The similarity in the onset and intensification of Little Ice Age cold-weather proxies across a wide region of the northern North Atlantic suggests at least a regional driver of abrupt climate change. The time intervals for which these abrupt changes occur coincide with the three most intense episodes of multiple explosive volcanic eruptions that introduced large volumes of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere during the past millennium. Although the direct impacts of volcanic aerosols have a duration of only a few years, the memory stored by the

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

The EUMETSAT sea ice concentration climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonboe, Rasmus T.; Eastwood, Steinar; Lavergne, Thomas; Sørensen, Atle M.; Rathmann, Nicholas; Dybkjær, Gorm; Toudal Pedersen, Leif; Høyer, Jacob L.; Kern, Stefan

2016-09-01

An Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area and extent dataset has been generated by EUMETSAT's Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) using the record of microwave radiometer data from NASA's Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave radiometer (SMMR) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) satellite sensors. The dataset covers the period from October 1978 to April 2015 and updates and further developments are planned for the next phase of the project. The methodology for computing the sea ice concentration uses (1) numerical weather prediction (NWP) data input to a radiative transfer model for reduction of the impact of weather conditions on the measured brightness temperatures; (2) dynamical algorithm tie points to mitigate trends in residual atmospheric, sea ice, and water emission characteristics and inter-sensor differences/biases; and (3) a hybrid sea ice concentration algorithm using the Bristol algorithm over ice and the Bootstrap algorithm in frequency mode over open water. A new sea ice concentration uncertainty algorithm has been developed to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in sea ice concentration retrieval accuracy. A comparison to US National Ice Center sea ice charts from the Arctic and the Antarctic shows that ice concentrations are higher in the ice charts than estimated from the radiometer data at intermediate sea ice concentrations between open water and 100 % ice. The sea ice concentration climate data record is available for download at www.osi-saf.org, including documentation.

Can regional climate engineering save the summer Arctic sea ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2014-02-01

Rapid declines in summer Arctic sea ice extent are projected under high-forcing future climate scenarios. Regional Arctic climate engineering has been suggested as an emergency strategy to save the sea ice. Model simulations of idealized regional dimming experiments compared to a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission simulation demonstrate the importance of both local and remote feedback mechanisms to the surface energy budget in high latitudes. With increasing artificial reduction in incoming shortwave radiation, the positive surface albedo feedback from Arctic sea ice loss is reduced. However, changes in Arctic clouds and the strongly increasing northward heat transport both counteract the direct dimming effects. A 4 times stronger local reduction in solar radiation compared to a global experiment is required to preserve summer Arctic sea ice area. Even with regional Arctic dimming, a reduction in the strength of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a shut down of Labrador Sea deep convection are possible.

Motivational climate, goal orientation, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment within Finnish junior ice hockey players.

PubMed

Jaakkola, T; Ntoumanis, N; Liukkonen, J

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relations among situational motivational climate, dispositional approach and avoidance achievement goals, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment in Finnish male junior ice hockey players. The sample comprised 265 junior B-level male players with a mean age of 17.03 years (SD = 0.63). Players filled questionnaires tapping their perceptions of coach motivational climate, achievement goals, perceived sport ability, and enjoyment. For the statistical analysis, players were divided into high and low perceived sport ability groups. Multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed an indirect path from task-involving motivational climate via task-approach goal to enjoyment. Additionally, SEM demonstrated four other direct associations, which existed in both perceived ability groups: from ego-involving motivational climate to ego-approach and ego-avoidance goals; from ego-approach goal to ego-avoidance goal; and from task-avoidance goal to ego-avoidance goal. Additionally, in the high perceived sport ability group, there was an association from task-involving motivational climate to enjoyment. The results of this study reveal that motivational climate emphasizing effort, personal development and improvement, and achievement goal mastering tasks are significant elements of enjoyment in junior ice hockey. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Southern Ocean Climate and Sea Ice Anomalies Associated with the Southern Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, R.; Comiso, J. C.

2002-03-01

The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-yr dataset from 1982 to 1998. The polar climate anomalies are correlated with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and the composites of these anomalies are examined under the positive (SOI > 0), neutral (0 > SOI > 1), and negative (SOI < 1) phases of SOI. The climate dataset consists of sea level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice dataset describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the SOI. The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen, and Ross Seas. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillations that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are clearly associated with the SOI include the following: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid-1988 to early 1991; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and the ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea and lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellinghausen Sea, and central Weddell Sea gyre during the period 1988-94. Four ENSO episodes over the

High Resolution Spatiotemporal Climate Reconstruction and Variability in East Asia during Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, K. H. E.; Wang, P. K.; Lee, S. Y.; Liao, Y. C.; Fan, I. C.; Liao, H. M.

2017-12-01

The Little ice Age (LIA) is one of the most prominent epochs in paleoclimate reconstruction of the Common Era. While the signals of LIA were generally discovered across hemispheres, wide arrays of regional variability were found, and the reconstructed anomalies were sometimes inconsistent across studies by using various proxy data or historical records. This inconsistency is mainly attributed to limited data coverage at fine resolution that can assist high-resolution climate reconstruction in the continuous spatiotemporal trends. Qing dynasty (1644-1911 CE) of China existed in the coldest period of LIA. Owing to a long-standing tradition that acquired local officials to record odds and social or meteorological events, thousands of local chronicles were left. Zhang eds. (2004) took two decades to compile all these meteorological records in a compendium, for which we then digitized and coded all records into our REACHS database system for reconstructing climate. There were in total 1,435 points (sites) in our database for over 80,000 events in the period of time. After implementing two-rounds coding check for data quality control (accuracy rate 87.2%), multiple indexes were retrieved for reconstructing annually and seasonally resolved temperature and precipitation series for North, Central, and South China. The reconstruction methods include frequency count and grading, with usage of multiple regression models to test sensitivity and to calculate correlations among several reconstructed series. Validation was also conducted through comparison with instrumental data and with other reconstructed series in previous studies. Major research results reveal interannual (3-5 years), decadal (8-12 years), and interdecadal (≈30 years) variabilities with strong regional expressions across East China. Cooling effect was not homogenously distributed in space and time. Flood and drought conditions frequently repeated but the spatiotemporal pattern was variant, indicating likely

Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

2018-01-01

The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

Past and future ice age initiation: the role of an intrinsic deep-ocean millennial oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, R. G.

2014-05-01

This paper offers three interdependent contributions to studies of climate variation: (1) the recognition and analysis of an intrinsic millennial oceanic oscillation that affects both Northern and Southern high latitude climates, (2) The recognition of an oceanographic switch to ice-free seas west of Greenland that explains the initiation of the Last Ice Age, and (3) an analysis of the effect of increasing salinity in the seas east of Greenland that suggests the possibility of the initiation of an ice age threshold climate in the near future. In the first contribution the millennial oscillation in the flow of the North Atlantic Drift reported by Bond et al. (1997) is proposed to be part of a 1500 yr intrinsic deep ocean oscillation. This oscillation involves the exchange of North Atlantic intermediate-level deep water (NADW) formed in the seas east of Greenland with Antarctic Bottom Water formed in a shallow-water zone at the edge of the Antarctic continent. The concept of NADW formation is already well known, with details of the sinking water flowing out of the Greenland Sea observed by Smethie et al. (2000) using chlorofluorocarbon tracers. The concept of Antarctic Bottom Water formation is also already well established. However, its modulation by the changing fraction of NADW in the Southern Ocean, which I infer from the analysis of Weyl (1968), has not been previously discussed. The modulated lower-salinity Antarctic Bottom Water that reaches the northern North Atlantic then provides negative feedback for the cyclic variation of NADW formation as proposed here. This causes the 1500 yr bipolar oscillation. The feedback suggests the possible sinusoidal character of the proposed oscillation model. The model is consistent with the cooling of the Little Ice Age (Lamb, 1972, 1995), and it also correctly predicts NASA's observation of today's record maximum area of winter sea ice on the Southern Ocean and the present observed record low rate of Antarctic Bottom Water

Ice-nucleating particle emissions from photochemically aged diesel and biodiesel exhaust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schill, G. P.; Jathar, S. H.; Kodros, J. K.; Levin, E. J. T.; Galang, A. M.; Friedman, B.; Link, M. F.; Farmer, D. K.; Pierce, J. R.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; DeMott, P. J.

2016-05-01

Immersion-mode ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations from an off-road diesel engine were measured using a continuous-flow diffusion chamber at -30°C. Both petrodiesel and biodiesel were utilized, and the exhaust was aged up to 1.5 photochemically equivalent days using an oxidative flow reactor. We found that aged and unaged diesel exhaust of both fuels is not likely to contribute to atmospheric INP concentrations at mixed-phase cloud conditions. To explore this further, a new limit-of-detection parameterization for ice nucleation on diesel exhaust was developed. Using a global-chemical transport model, potential black carbon INP (INPBC) concentrations were determined using a current literature INPBC parameterization and the limit-of-detection parameterization. Model outputs indicate that the current literature parameterization likely overemphasizes INPBC concentrations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. These results highlight the need to integrate new INPBC parameterizations into global climate models as generalized INPBC parameterizations are not valid for diesel exhaust.

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

Deglacial climate modulated by the storage and release of Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condron, A.; Coletti, A. J.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

Periods of abrupt climate cooling during the last deglaciation (20 - 8 kyr ago) are often attributed to glacial outburst floods slowing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we present results from a series of climate model simulations showing that the episodic break-up and mobilization of thick, perennial, Arctic sea ice during this time would have released considerable volumes of freshwater directly to the Nordic Seas, where processes regulating large-scale climate occur. Massive sea ice export events to the North Atlantic are generated whenever the transport of sea ice is enhanced, either by changes in atmospheric circulation, rising sea level submerging the Bering land bridge, or glacial outburst floods draining into the Arctic Ocean from the Mackenzie River. We find that the volumes of freshwater released to the Nordic Seas are similar to, or larger than, those estimated to have come from terrestrial outburst floods, including the discharge at the onset of the Younger Dryas. Our results provide the first evidence that the storage and release of Arctic sea ice helped drive deglacial climate change by modulating the strength of the AMOC.

The role of sea-ice albedo in the climate of slowly rotating aquaplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salameh, Josiane; Popp, Max; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-04-01

We investigate the influence of the rotation period (P_{rot}) on the mean climate of an aquaplanet, with a focus on the role of sea-ice albedo. We perform aquaplanet simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 for various rotation periods from one Earth-day to 365 Earth-days in which case the planet is synchronously rotating. The global-mean surface temperature decreases with increasing P_{rot} and sea ice expands equatorwards. The cooling of the mean climate with increasing P_{rot} is caused partly by the high surface albedo of sea ice on the dayside and partly by the high albedo of the deep convective clouds over the substellar region. The cooling caused by these deep convective clouds is weak for non-synchronous rotations compared to synchronous rotation. Sensitivity simulations with the sea-ice model switched off show that the global-mean surface temperature is up to 27 K higher than in our main simulations with sea ice and thus highlight the large influence of sea ice on the climate. We present the first estimates of the influence of the rotation period on the transition of an Earth-like climate to global glaciation. Our results suggest that global glaciation of planets with synchronous rotation occurs at substantially lower incoming solar irradiation than for planets with slow but non-synchronous rotation.

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

PubMed Central

Sánchez Goñi, María F.; Desprat, Stéphanie; Fletcher, William J.; Morales-Molino, César; Naughton, Filipa; Oliveira, Dulce; Urrego, Dunia H.; Zorzi, Coralie

2018-01-01

occurred on the European margin superimposed to a long-term air-sea decoupling trend. Strong air-sea thermal contrasts promoted the production of water vapor that was then transported northward by the westerlies and fed ice sheets. This interaction between long-term and shorter time-scale climatic variability may have amplified insolation decreases and thus explain the Ice Ages. This hypothesis should be tested by the integration of stochastic processes in Earth models of intermediate complexity. PMID:29434616

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages.

PubMed

Sánchez Goñi, María F; Desprat, Stéphanie; Fletcher, William J; Morales-Molino, César; Naughton, Filipa; Oliveira, Dulce; Urrego, Dunia H; Zorzi, Coralie

2018-01-01

occurred on the European margin superimposed to a long-term air-sea decoupling trend. Strong air-sea thermal contrasts promoted the production of water vapor that was then transported northward by the westerlies and fed ice sheets. This interaction between long-term and shorter time-scale climatic variability may have amplified insolation decreases and thus explain the Ice Ages. This hypothesis should be tested by the integration of stochastic processes in Earth models of intermediate complexity.

Geoengineering by cloud seeding: influence on sea ice and climate system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.; Latham, John; Chen, Chih-Chieh

2009-12-18

GCM computations using a fully coupled ocean atmosphere model indicate that increasing cloud reflectivity by seeding maritime boundary layer clouds with particles made from seawater may compensate for some of the effects on climate of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The chosen seeding strategy (one of many possible scenarios) can restore global averages of temperature, precipitation and sea ice to present day values, but not simultaneously. The response varies nonlinearly with extent of the seeding, and geoengineering generates local changes to important climatic features. The global tradeoffs of restoring ice cover and cooling the planet must be assessed alongside the localmore » changes to climate features.« less

Influence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse on Antarctic surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Ding, Qinghua; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

2015-06-01

Climate model simulations are used to examine the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) on the surface climate of Antarctica. The lowered topography following WAIS collapse produces anomalous cyclonic circulation with increased flow of warm, maritime air toward the South Pole and cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau toward the Ross Sea and Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Relative to the background climate, areas in East Antarctica that are adjacent to the WAIS warm, while substantial cooling (several °C) occurs over parts of West Antarctica. Anomalously low isotope-paleotemperature values at Mount Moulton, West Antarctica, compared with ice core records in East Antarctica, are consistent with collapse of the WAIS during the last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage 5e. More definitive evidence might be recoverable from an ice core record at Hercules Dome, East Antarctica, which would experience significant warming and positive oxygen isotope anomalies if the WAIS collapsed.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayewski, P. A.; Carleton, A. M.; Birkel, S. D.; Dixon, D.; Kurbatov, A. V.; Korotkikh, E.; McConnell, J.; Curran, M.; Cole-Dai, J.; Jiang, S.; Plummer, C.; Vance, T.; Maasch, K. A.; Sneed, S. B.; Handley, M.

2017-01-01

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W.

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their

Climate Change and the Long-term Viability of the World's Busiest Heavy Haul Ice Road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, D.

2016-12-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World's busiest heavy haul ice road

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Swindles, Graeme; Patterson, Tim; Galloway, Jennifer; Macumber, Andrew; Falck, Hendrik; Crossley, Laura; Chen, Jie; Pisaric, Michael

2017-08-01

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world's busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

The role of sea ice in 2 x CO2 climate model sensitivity. Part 1: The total influence of sea ice thickness and extent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Healy, R.; Parkinson, C.; Martinson, D.

1995-01-01

As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2, the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature senstivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 C), because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus, its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run, which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes, including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations, amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling, accounting for 1.56 C of the 4.17 C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations, necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models.

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken; MacMartin, Douglas G.

The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO₂ climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modestmore » reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO₂ induced global warming.« less

Impacts of ocean albedo alteration on Arctic sea ice restoration and Northern Hemisphere climate

DOE PAGES

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Caldeira, Ken; MacMartin, Douglas G.

2015-04-01

The Arctic Ocean is expected to transition into a seasonally ice-free state by mid-century, enhancing Arctic warming and leading to substantial ecological and socio-economic challenges across the Arctic region. It has been proposed that artificially increasing high latitude ocean albedo could restore sea ice, but the climate impacts of such a strategy have not been previously explored. Motivated by this, we investigate the impacts of idealized high latitude ocean albedo changes on Arctic sea ice restoration and climate. In our simulated 4xCO₂ climate, imposing surface albedo alterations over the Arctic Ocean leads to partial sea ice recovery and a modestmore » reduction in Arctic warming. With the most extreme ocean albedo changes, imposed over the area 70°–90°N, September sea ice cover stabilizes at ~40% of its preindustrial value (compared to ~3% without imposed albedo modifications). This is accompanied by an annual mean Arctic surface temperature decrease of ~2 °C but no substantial global mean temperature decrease. Imposed albedo changes and sea ice recovery alter climate outside the Arctic region too, affecting precipitation distribution over parts of the continental United States and Northeastern Pacific. For example, following sea ice recovery, wetter and milder winter conditions are present in the Southwest United States while the East Coast experiences cooling. We conclude that although ocean albedo alteration could lead to some sea ice recovery, it does not appear to be an effective way of offsetting the overall effects of CO₂ induced global warming.« less

Terrestrial Ice Sheets: Studies of Climate History, Internal Structure, Surface, and Bedrock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorsteinsson, Th.; Kipfstuhl, J.; Nixdorf, U.; Oerter, H.; Miller, H.; Fritsche, D.; Jung-Rothenhaeusler, F.; Mayer, C.; Schwager, M.; Wilhelms, F.; Steinhage, D.; Goektas, F.

1998-01-01

accumulation rates do not indicate a definite trend in the region during this century. The Alfred Wegener Institute has in recent years employed both airborne and ground-penetrating ice radar systems to map the bedrock around deep drilling sites in Central and North Greenland, as well as in a planned Antarctic site in Dronning Maud Land. The radar also records shallow and deep internal echoes, caused by rapid variation in density and ice acidity in layers of certain ages, allowing isochrones to be traced over wide reaches of the ice sheet. Disturbances in regular stratigraphic layering, due to ice flow over an irregular bed, were observed in the lowest 200-300 m of the GRIP and GISP2 ice cores. Since the aim of the new NGRIP coring program is to obtain an ice core reaching further back in time than the Central Greenland cores, this site was chosen in a region where the bedrock is relatively flat. Echo-sounding surveys between GRIP and NGREP show that the isochrones lie 100-200 in higher above the bed at NGRIP, indicating that the Eemian layer is unlikely to have been disturbed by ice flow at this location. Due to the flow pattern of ice sheets, layers forming a vertical sequence in the interior regions of an ice sheet can, under favorable conditions, be traced on horizontal profiles at the margins. Some meaningful correlations have already been established between Greenland deep ice core climatic records and corresponding records from ice margins. In these regions, a clear contrast is observed between ice of Holocene origin and significantly darker-looking ice dating from the Wisconsin glacial period, which displays summertime ablation rates 2-4x higher than the Holocene ice. This difference is due to higher concentrations of dust and other impurities in the Wisconsin ice, by 1-2 orders of magnitude, leading to reduced albedo. Furthermore, smaller crystal sizes in the Wisconsin ice lead to a more homogeneous distribution of impurities on the surface, which probably contributes

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke A.; Korhonen, Johanna; Aono, Yasuyuki

2016-01-01

Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality. PMID:27113125

Improved age constraints for the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smedley, Rachel; Chiverrell, Richard; Duller, Geoff; Scourse, James; Small, David; Fabel, Derek; Burke, Matthew; Clarke, Chris; McCarroll, Danny; McCarron, Stephen; O'Cofaigh, Colm; Roberts, David

2016-04-01

BRITICE-CHRONO is a large (> 45 researchers) consortium project working to provide an extensive geochronological dataset constraining the rate of retreat of a number of ice streams of the British-Irish Ice Sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum. When complete, the large empirical dataset produced by BRITICE-CHRONO will be integrated into model simulations to better understand the behaviour of the British-Irish Ice Sheet in response to past climate change, and provide an analogue for contemporary ice sheets. A major feature of the British-Irish Ice Sheet was the dynamic Irish Sea Ice Stream, which drained a large proportion of the ice sheet and extended to the proposed southern limit of glaciation upon the Isles of Scilly (Scourse, 1991). This study will focus on a large suite of terrestrial samples that were collected along a transect of the Irish Sea basin, covering the line of ice retreat from the Isles of Scilly (50°N) in the south, to the Isle of Man (54°N) in the north; a distance of 500 km. Ages are determined for both the eastern and western margins of the Irish Sea using single-grain luminescence dating (39 samples) and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating (10 samples). A Bayesian sequence model is then used in combination with the prior information determined for deglaciation to integrate the geochronological datasets, and assess retreat rates for the Irish Sea Ice Stream. Scourse, J.D., 1991. Late Pleistocene stratigraphy and palaeobotany of the Isles of Scilly. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B334, 405 - 448.

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Rapid changes in ice core gas records - Part 1: On the accuracy of methane synchronisation of ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, P.

2010-08-01

Methane synchronisation is a concept to align ice core records during rapid climate changes of the Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events onto a common age scale. However, atmospheric gases are recorded in ice cores with a log-normal-shaped age distribution probability density function, whose exact shape depends mainly on the accumulation rate on the drilling site. This age distribution effectively shifts the mid-transition points of rapid changes in CH4 measured in situ in ice by about 58% of the width of the age distribution with respect to the atmospheric signal. A minimum dating uncertainty, or artefact, in the CH4 synchronisation is therefore embedded in the concept itself, which was not accounted for in previous error estimates. This synchronisation artefact between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores is for GRIP and Byrd less than 40 years, well within the dating uncertainty of CH4, and therefore does not calls the overall concept of the bipolar seesaw into question. However, if the EPICA Dome C ice core is aligned via CH4 to NGRIP this synchronisation artefact is in the most recent unified ice core age scale (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) for LGM climate conditions of the order of three centuries and might need consideration in future gas chronologies.

Interactions of arctic clouds, radiation, and sea ice in present-day and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, Melissa Ann

The Arctic climate system involves complex interactions among the atmosphere, land surface, and the sea-ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Observed changes in the Arctic have emerged and projected climate trends are of significant concern. Surface warming over the last few decades is nearly double that of the entire Earth. Reduced sea-ice extent and volume, changes to ecosystems, and melting permafrost are some examples of noticeable changes in the region. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of how Arctic clouds interact with, and influence, the surface budget, how clouds influence the distribution of sea ice, and the role of downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) in climate change. In the first half of this study, we explore the roles of sea-ice thickness and downwelling longwave radiation in Arctic amplification. As the Arctic sea ice thins and ultimately disappears in a warming climate, its insulating power decreases. This causes the surface air temperature to approach the temperature of the relatively warm ocean water below the ice. The resulting increases in air temperature, water vapor and cloudiness lead to an increase in the surface downwelling longwave radiation, which enables a further thinning of the ice. This positive ice-insulation feedback operates mainly in the autumn and winter. A climate-change simulation with the Community Earth System Model shows that, averaged over the year, the increase in Arctic DLR is three times stronger than the increase in Arctic absorbed solar radiation at the surface. The warming of the surface air over the Arctic Ocean during fall and winter creates a strong thermal contrast with the colder surrounding continents. Sea-level pressure falls over the Arctic Ocean and the high-latitude circulation reorganizes into a shallow "winter monsoon." The resulting increase in surface wind speed promotes stronger surface evaporation and higher humidity over portions of the Arctic Ocean, thus reinforcing the ice-insulation feedback

Polar process and world climate /A brief overview/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goody, R.

1980-01-01

A review is presented of events relating polar regions to the world climate, the mechanisms of sea ice and polar ice sheets, and of two theories of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. The sea ice which varies over time scales of one or two years and the polar ice sheets with time changes measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of years introduce two distinct time constants into global time changes; the yearly Arctic sea ice variations affect northern Europe and have some effect over the entire Northern Hemisphere; the ice-albedo coupling in the polar ice sheets is involved in major climatic events such as the Pleistocene ice ages. It is concluded that climate problems require a global approach including the atmosphere, the oceans, and the cryosphere.

Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Ragotzkie, R.A.; Magnuson, John J.

1992-01-01

With the relationships between air temperature and freeze and break up dates, we can project how the ice cover of Lake Mendota should respond to future climatic changes. If warming occurs, the ice cover for Lake Mendota should decrease approximately 11 days per 1 °C increase. With a warming of 4 to 5 °C, years with no ice cover should occur in approximately 1 out of 15 to 30 years.

Unveiling climate and ice-sheet history from drilling in high-latitude margins and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escutia Dotti, Carlota

2010-05-01

Polar ice is an important component of the climate system, affecting global sea level, ocean circulation and heat transport, marine productivity, and albedo. During the last decades drilling in the Arctic (IODP ACEX and Bering Expeditions) and in Antarctica (ODP Legs 178, 188, IODP Expedition 318 and ANDRILL) has revealed regional information about sea ice and ice sheets development and evolution. Integration of this data with numerical modeling provide an understanding of the early development of the ice sheets and their variability through the Cenozoic. Much of this work points to atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases concentrations as important triggering mechanism driving the onset of glaciation and subsequent ice volume variability. With current increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations resulting in rapidly rising global temperatures, studies of polar climates become increasingly prominent on the research agenda. Despite of the relevance of the high-latitudes in the global climate systems, the short- and long-term history of the ice sheets and sea-ice and its relationships with paleoclimatic, paleoceanographic, and sea level changes is still poorly understood. A multinational, multiplatform scientific drilling strategy is being developed to recover key physical evidence from selected high-latitude areas. This strategy is aimed at addressing key knowledge gaps about the role of polar ice in climate change, targeting questions such as timing of events, rates of change, tipping points, regional variations, and northern vs. southern hemispheres (in phase or out-of-phase) variability. This data is critical to provide constrains to sea-ice and ice sheet models, which are the basis for forecasting the future of the cryosphere in a warming world.

Ice nucleation by cellulose and its potential impact on clouds and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiranuma, Naruki; Möhler, Ottmar; Yamashita, Katsuya; Tajiri, Takuya; Saito, Atsushi; Kiselev, Alexei; Hoose, Corinna; Murakami, Masataka

2014-05-01

Biological aerosol particles have recently been accentuated by their efficient ice nucleating activity as well as potential impact on clouds and global climate. Despite their potential importance, little is known about the abundance of biological particles in the atmosphere and their role compared to non-biological material and, consequently, their potential role in the cloud-hydrology and climate system is also poorly constrained. However, field observations show that the concentration of airborne cellulose, which is one of the most important derivatives of glucose and atmospherically relevant biopolymers, is consistently prevalent (>10 ng per cubic meter) throughout the whole year even at remote- and elevated locations. Here we use a novel cloud simulation chamber in Tsukuba, Japan to demonstrate that airborne cellulose of biological origin can act as efficient ice nucleating particles in super-cooled clouds of the lower and middle troposphere. In specific, we measured the surface-based ice nucleation activity of microcrystalline cellulose particles immersed in cloud droplets, which may add crucial importance to further quantify the role of biological particles as ice nuclei in the troposphere. Our results suggest that the concentration of ice nucleating cellulose to become significant (>0.1 per liter) below about -17 °C and nearly comparable to other known ice nucleating clay mineral particles (e.g., illite rich clay mineral - INUIT comparisons are also presented). An important and unique characteristic of microcrystalline cellulose compared to other particles of biological origin is its high molecular packing density, enhancing resistance to hydrolysis degradation. More in-depth microphysical understandings as well as quantitative observations of ice nucleating cellulose particles in the atmosphere are necessary to allow better estimates of their effects on clouds and the global climate. Acknowledgement: We acknowledge support by German Research Society (Df

A transient fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulation of the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.; Brady, E. C.

2017-12-01

The last glacial inception occurred around 115 ka, following a relative minimum in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. It is believed that small and spatially separated ice caps initially formed in the high elevation regions of northern Canada, Scandinavia, and along the Siberian Arctic coast. These ice caps subsequently migrated down in the valleys where they coalesced and formed the initial seeds of the large coherent ice masses that covered the northern parts of the North American and Eurasian continents over most of the last glacial cycle. Sea level records show that the initial growth period lasted for about 10 kyrs, and the resulting ice sheets may have lowered the global sea level by as much as 30 to 50 meters. Here we examine the transient climate system evolution over the period between 118 and 110 ka, using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). This model features a two-way coupled high-resolution (4x4 km) ice-sheet component (Community Ice Sheet model, version 2; CISM2) that simulates ice sheets as an interactive component of the climate system. We impose a transient forcing protocol where the greenhouse gas concentrations and the orbital parameters follow the nominal year in the simulation; the model topography is also dynamically evolving in order to reflect changes in ice elevation throughout the simulation. The analysis focuses on how the climate system evolves over this time interval, with a special focus on glacial inception in the high-latitude continents. Results will highlight how the evolving ice sheets compare to data and previous model based reconstructions.

Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

2016-04-01

Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

2017-01-01

For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Robert; Abram, Nerilie J; Hindmarsh, Richard C A; Arrowsmith, Carol; Fleet, Louise; Triest, Jack; Sime, Louise C; Alemany, Olivier; Foord, Susan

2012-09-06

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution Project (RICE): A 65 Kyr ice core record of black carbon aerosol deposition to the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Ross; Bertler, Nancy; Tuohy, Andrea; Neff, Peter; Proemse, Bernedette; Feiteng, Wang; Goodwin, Ian; Hogan, Chad

2015-04-01

Emitted by fires, black carbon aerosols (rBC) perturb the atmosphere's physical and chemical properties and are climatically active. Sedimentary charcoal and other paleo-fire records suggest that rBC emissions have varied significantly in the past due to human activity and climate variability. However, few paleo rBC records exist to constrain reconstructions of the past rBC atmospheric distribution and its climate interaction. As part of the international Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project, we have developed an Antarctic rBC ice core record spanning the past ~65 Kyr. The RICE deep ice core was drilled from the Roosevelt Island ice dome in West Antarctica from 2011 to 2013. The high depth resolution (~ 1 cm) record was developed using a single particle intracavity laser-induced incandescence soot photometer (SP2) coupled to an ice core melter system. The rBC record displays sub-annual variability consistent with both austral dry-season and summer biomass burning. The record exhibits significant decadal to millennial-scale variability consistent with known changes in climate. Glacial rBC concentrations were much lower than Holocene concentrations with the exception of several periods of abrupt increases in rBC. The transition from glacial to interglacial rBC concentrations occurred over a much longer time relative to other ice core climate proxies such as water isotopes and suggests . The protracted increase in rBC during the transition may reflected Southern hemisphere ecosystem / fire regime changes in response to hydroclimate and human activity.

RICE ice core: Black Carbon reflects climate variability at Roosevelt Island, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Aja; Edwards, Ross; Bertler, Nancy; Winton, Holly; Goodwin, Ian; Neff, Peter; Tuohy, Andrea; Proemse, Bernadette; Hogan, Chad; Feiteng, Wang

2015-04-01

The Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project successfully drilled a deep ice core from Roosevelt Island during the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 seasons. Located in the Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica, the site is an ideal location for investigating climate variability and the past stability of the Ross Ice Shelf. Black carbon (BC) aerosols are emitted by both biomass burning and fossil fuels, and BC particles emitted in the southern hemisphere are transported in the atmosphere and preserved in Antarctic ice. The past record of BC is expected to be sensitive to climate variability, as it is modulated by both emissions and transport. To investigate BC variability over the past 200 years, we developed a BC record from two overlapping ice cores (~1850-2012) and a high-resolution snow pit spanning 2010-2012 (cal. yr). Consistent results are found between the snow pit profiles and ice core records. Distinct decadal trends are found with respect to BC particle size, and the record indicates a steady rise in BC particle size over the last 100 years. Differences in emission sources and conditions may be a possible explanation for changes in BC size. These records also show a significant increase in BC concentration over the past decade with concentrations rising over 1.5 ppb (1.5*10^-9 ng/g), suggesting a fundamental shift in BC deposition to the site.

Global ice-sheet system interlocked by sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, George H.; Hughes, Terence J.; Karlén, Wibjörn

1986-07-01

Denton and Hughes (1983, Quaternary Research20, 125-144) postulated that sea level linked a global ice-sheet system with both terrestrial and grounded marine components during late Quaternary ice ages. Summer temperature changes near Northern Hemisphere melting margins initiated sea-level fluctuations that controlled marine components in both polar hemispheres. It was further proposed that variations of this ice-sheet system amplified and transmitted Milankovitch summer half-year insolation changes between 45 and 75°N into global climatic changes. New tests of this hypothesis implicate sea level as a major control of the areal extent of grounded portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus fitting the concept of a globally interlocked ice-sheet system. But recent atmospheric modeling results ( Manabe and Broccoli, 1985, Journal of Geophysical Research90, 2167-2190) suggest that factors other than areal changes of the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet strongly influenced Southern Hemisphere climate and terminated the last ice age simultaneously in both polar hemispheres. Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked to high-latitude oceans is the most likely candidate ( Shackleton and Pisias, 1985, Atmospheric carbon dioxide, orbital forcing, and climate. In "The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO 2: Natural Variations Archean to Present" (E. T. Sundquest and W. S. Broecker, Eds.), pp. 303-318. Geophysical Monograph 32, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.), but another potential influence was high-frequency climatic oscillations (2500 yr). It is postulated that variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide acted through an Antarctic ice shelf linked to the grounded ice sheet to produce and terminate Southern Hemisphere ice-age climate. It is further postulated that Milankovitch summer insolation combined with a warm high-frequency oscillation caused marked recession of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet melting margins and the North Atlantic polar front about 14,000 14C yr B.P. This

Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

2017-07-01

The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

Evidence for a dynamic East Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Miocene climate transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Elizabeth L.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Cook, Carys P.; Passchier, Sandra

2017-11-01

The East Antarctic ice sheet underwent a major expansion during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition, around 14 Ma, lowering sea level by ∼60 m. However, direct or indirect evidence of where changes in the ice sheet occurred is limited. Here we present new insights on timing and locations of ice sheet change from two drill sites offshore East Antarctica. IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay are located adjacent to two major ice drainage areas, the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and the Lambert Graben. Ice-rafted detritus (IRD), including dropstones, was deposited in concentrations far exceeding those known in the rest of the Miocene succession at both sites between 14.1 and 13.8 Ma, indicating that large amounts of IRD-bearing icebergs were calved from independent drainage basins during this relatively short interval. At Site U1356, the IRD was delivered in distinct pulses, suggesting that the overall ice advance was punctuated by short periods of ice retreat in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Provenance analysis of the mid-Miocene IRD and fine-grained sediments provides additional insights on the movement of the ice margin and subglacial geology. At Site U1356, the dominant 40Ar/39Ar thermochronological age of the ice-rafted hornblende grains is 1400-1550 Ma, differing from the majority of recent IRD in the area, from which we infer an inland source area of this thermochronological age extending along the eastern part of the Adélie Craton, which forms the western side of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Neodymium isotopic compositions from the terrigenous fine fraction at Site U1356 imply that the ice margin periodically expanded from high ground well into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during periods of MMCT ice growth. At Site 1165, MMCT pebble-sized IRD are sourced from both the local Lambert Graben and the distant Aurora Subglacial Basin drainage area. Together, the occurrence and provenance of the IRD and glacially-eroded sediment at these two marine

10Be in ice at high resolution: Solar activity and climate signals observed and GCM-modeled in Law Dome ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedro, Joel; Heikkilä, Ulla; van Ommen, T. D.; Smith, A. M.

2010-05-01

Changes in solar activity modulate the galactic cosmic ray flux, and in turn, the production rate of 10Be in the earth's atmosphere. The best archives of past changes in 10Be production rate are the polar ice cores. Key challenges in interpreting these archives as proxies for past solar activity lie in separating the useful solar activity (or production) signal from the interfering meteorological (or climate) signal, and furthermore, in determining the atmospheric source regions of 10Be deposited to the ice core site. In this study we use a new monthly resolution composite 10Be record, which spans the past decade, and a general circulation model (ECHAM5-HAM), to constrain both the production and climate signals in 10Be concentrations at the Law Dome ice core site, East Antarctica. This study differs from most previous work on 10Be in Antarctica due to the very high sample resolution achieved. This high resolution, through a time period where accurate instrumental measurements of solar activity and climate are available, allows us to examine the response of 10Be concentrations in ice to short-term (monthly to annual) variations in solar activity, and to short-term variations in climate, including seasonality. We find a significant correlation (r2 = 0.56, P < 0.005, n = 92) between observed 10Be concentrations and solar activity (represented by the neutron counting rate). The most pervasive climate influence is a seasonal cycle, which shows maximum concentrations in mid-to-late-summer and minimum concentrations in winter. Model results show reasonable agreement with observations; both a solar activity signal and seasonal cycle in 10Be are captured. However, the modeled snow accumulation rate is too high by approximately 60%. According to the model, the main atmospheric source region of 10Be deposited to Law Dome is the 30-90°S stratosphere (~50%), followed by the 30-90°S troposphere (~30%). An enhancement in the fraction of 10Be arriving to Law Dome from the

Did the Arctic Ice Recover? Demographics of True and False Climate Facts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, L.

2012-12-01

Beliefs about climate change divide the U.S. public along party lines more distinctly than hot social issues. Research finds that better educated or informed respondents are more likely to align with their parties on climate change. This information-elite polarization resembles a process of biased assimilation first described in psychological experiments. In nonexperimental settings, college graduates could be prone to biased assimilation if they more effectively acquire information that supports their beliefs. Recent national and statewide survey data show response patterns consistent with biased assimilation (and biased guessing) contributing to the correlation observed between climate beliefs and knowledge. The survey knowledge questions involve key, uncontroversial observations such as whether the area of late-summer Arctic sea ice has declined, increased, or declined and then recovered to what it was 30 years ago. Correct answers are predicted by education, and some wrong answers (e.g., more ice) have predictors that suggest lack of knowledge. Other wrong answers (e.g., ice recovered) are predicted by political and belief factors instead. Responses show indications of causality in both directions: science information affecting climate beliefs, but also beliefs affecting the assimilation of science information.; ;

Towards multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records from coastal west Greenland ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Sarah B.; Osman, Matthew B.; Trusel, Luke D.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Smith, Ben E.; Evans, Matthew J.; Frey, Karen E.; Arienzo, Monica; Chellman, Nathan

2017-04-01

The Arctic region, and Greenland in particular, is undergoing dramatic change as characterized by atmospheric warming, decreasing sea ice, shifting ocean circulation patterns, and rapid ice sheet mass loss, but longer records are needed to put these changes into context. Ice core records from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded invaluable insight into past climate change both regionally and globally, and provided important constraints on past surface mass balance more directly, but these ice cores are most often from the interior ice sheet accumulation zone, at high altitude and hundreds of kilometers from the coast. Coastal ice caps, situated around the margins of Greenland, have the potential to provide novel high-resolution records of local and regional maritime climate and sea surface conditions, as well as contemporaneous glaciological changes (such as accumulation and surface melt history). But obtaining these records is extremely challenging. Most of these ice caps are unexplored, and thus their thickness, age, stratigraphy, and utility as sites of new and unique paleoclimate records is largely unknown. Access is severely limited due to their high altitude, steep relief, small surface area, and inclement weather. Furthermore, their relatively low elevation and marine moderated climate can contribute to significant surface melting and degradation of the ice stratigraphy. We recently targeted areas near the Disko Bay region of central west Greenland where maritime ice caps are prevalent but unsampled, as potential sites for new multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records. In 2014 & 2015 we identified two promising ice caps, one on Disko Island (1250 m. asl) and one on Nuussuaq Peninsula (1980 m. asl) based on airborne and ground-based geophysical observations and physical and glaciochemical stratigraphy from shallow firn cores. In spring 2015 we collected ice cores at both sites using the Badger-Eclipse electromechanical drill, transported by a medley

"Ice out": the contribution of citizen scientists to our understanding of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patterson, R. Timothy; Swindles, Graeme T.

2016-04-01

Long-term trends in spring 'ice out' dates (1836-2013) for twelve lakes in Maine, New Brunswick and New Hampshire, in eastern North America reveal a remarkable coherency across the region (rs=0.462-0.933, p<0.01). These data have been compiled since the early 19th century, primarily by amateur citizen scientists, for a variety of purposes, including determining fishing seasons, estimating the spring opening of ferry boat routes, community contests, and general curiosity. Ice out dates correlate closely with late-winter/early-spring, March-April (MA), instrumental temperature records from across the region (rs=0.488-0.816, p<0.01). This correlation permits use of ice out dates as a proxy to extend the shorter MA instrumental record (1876-2013). Mean ice out dates trended progressively earlier during the recovery from the Little Ice Age through to the 1940s, and gradually became later again through to the late 1970s, when ice out dates had returned to values more typical of the late nineteenth century. Post-1970's ice out dates resumed trending toward earlier dates, with the twenty-first century being characterized by the earliest ice out dates on record. Spectral and wavelet time series analysis indicate that ice out is influenced by several teleconnections including the Quasi-biennial Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as well as a significant correlation between inland lake records and the Arctic Oscillation. The relative influence of these teleconnections is variable with notable shifts occurring after ~1870, ~1925, and ~1980-2000. The intermittent expression of these cycles in the ice out and MA instrumental record is not only influenced by absolute changes in the intensity of the various teleconnections and other climate drivers, but by phase interference between teleconnections, which periodically damps the various signals.

Cloud ice: A climate model challenge with signs and expectations of progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, Duane E.; Li, Jui-Lin F.; Woods, Christopher P.; Austin, Richard T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Chern, Jiundar; Del Genio, Anthony; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Kuang, Zhiming; Meng, Huan; Minnis, Patrick; Platnick, Steve; Rossow, William B.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Sun-Mack, Szedung; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Vane, Deborah G.; Walker, Christopher; Wu, Dong

2009-04-01

Present-day shortcomings in the representation of upper tropospheric ice clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) lead to errors in weather and climate forecasts as well as account for a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. An ongoing challenge in rectifying these shortcomings has been the availability of adequate, high-quality, global observations targeting ice clouds and related precipitating hydrometeors. In addition, the inadequacy of the modeled physics and the often disjointed nature between model representation and the characteristics of the retrieved/observed values have hampered GCM development and validation efforts from making effective use of the measurements that have been available. Thus, even though parameterizations in GCMs accounting for cloud ice processes have, in some cases, become more sophisticated in recent years, this development has largely occurred independently of the global-scale measurements. With the relatively recent addition of satellite-derived products from Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and CloudSat, there are now considerably more resources with new and unique capabilities to evaluate GCMs. In this article, we illustrate the shortcomings evident in model representations of cloud ice through a comparison of the simulations assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, briefly discuss the range of global observational resources that are available, and describe the essential components of the model parameterizations that characterize their "cloud" ice and related fields. Using this information as background, we (1) discuss some of the main considerations and cautions that must be taken into account in making model-data comparisons related to cloud ice, (2) illustrate present progress and uncertainties in applying satellite cloud ice (namely from MLS and CloudSat) to model diagnosis, (3) show some indications of model improvements, and finally (4) discuss a number of

Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

2010-05-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the

An Investigation of the Radiative Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Sea Ice Sources of Sea Salt Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, H. M.; Alexander, B.; Bitz, C. M.; Jaegle, L.; Burrows, S. M.

2017-12-01

In polar regions, sea ice is a major source of sea salt aerosol through lofting of saline frost flowers or blowing saline snow from the sea ice surface. Under continued climate warming, an ice-free Arctic in summer with only first-year, more saline sea ice in winter is likely. Previous work has focused on climate impacts in summer from increasing open ocean sea salt aerosol emissions following complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, with conflicting results suggesting no net radiative effect or a negative climate feedback resulting from a strong first aerosol indirect effect. However, the radiative forcing from changes to the sea ice sources of sea salt aerosol in a future, warmer climate has not previously been explored. Understanding how sea ice loss affects the Arctic climate system requires investigating both open-ocean and sea ice sources of sea-salt aerosol and their potential interactions. Here, we implement a blowing snow source of sea salt aerosol into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) dynamically coupled to the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5). Snow salinity is a key parameter affecting blowing snow sea salt emissions and previous work has assumed constant regional snow salinity over sea ice. We develop a parameterization for dynamic snow salinity in the sea ice model and examine how its spatial and temporal variability impacts the production of sea salt from blowing snow. We evaluate and constrain the snow salinity parameterization using available observations. Present-day coupled CESM-CICE5 simulations of sea salt aerosol concentrations including sea ice sources are evaluated against in situ and satellite (CALIOP) observations in polar regions. We then quantify the present-day radiative forcing from the addition of blowing snow sea salt aerosol with respect to aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The relative contributions of sea ice vs. open ocean sources of sea salt aerosol to radiative forcing in polar regions is

Preliminary Cosmogenic Surface Exposure Ages on Laurentide Ice-sheet Retreat and Opening of the Eastern Lake Agassiz Outlets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leydet, D.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; Teller, J. T.; Breckenridge, A. J.; Caffee, M. W.; Barth, A. M.

2015-12-01

The chronology for the eastern outlets of glacial Lake Agassiz holds important consequences for the cause of Younger Dryas cold event during the last deglaciation. Eastward routing of Lake Agassiz runoff was originally hypothesized to have triggered the Younger Dryas. However, currently the chronology of the eastern outlets is only constrained by minimum-limiting radiocarbon ages that could suggest the eastern outlets were still ice covered at the start of the Younger Dryas at ~12.9 ka BP, requiring a different forcing of this abrupt climate event. Nevertheless, the oldest radiocarbon ages are still consistent with an ice-free eastern outlet at the start of the Younger Dryas. Here we will present preliminary 10-Be cosmogenic surface exposure ages from the North Lake, Flat Rock Lake, glacial Lake Kaministiquia, and Lake Nipigon outlets located near Thunder Bay, Ontario. These ages will date the timing of the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet in the eastern outlet region of glacial Lake Agassiz. This will provide an important constraint for the hypothesized freshwater forcing of the cause of Younger Dryas cold event.

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

2018-04-01

Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

PubMed Central

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Rob A.; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-01-01

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies. PMID:28233791

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

PubMed

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D; Massom, Rob A; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-02-24

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

2017-12-01

The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present

PubMed Central

Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L.; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M.; Fahl, Kirsten

2016-01-01

In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean. PMID:27456826

Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

PubMed

Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

2016-07-26

In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

PubMed

Dutrieux, Pierre; De Rydt, Jan; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Steig, Eric J; Ding, Qinghua; Abrahamsen, E Povl; Schröder, Michael

2014-01-10

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

Strong Gradients in Forest Sensitivity to Climate Change Revealed by Dynamics of Forest Fire Cycles in the Post Little Ice Age Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Girardin, Martin P.; Gauthier, Sylvie; Ols, Clémentine; Ojal, John

2017-10-01

The length of the fire cycle is a critical factor affecting the vegetation cover in boreal and temperate regions. However, its responses to climate change remain poorly understood. We reanalyzed data from earlier studies of forest age structures at the landscape level, in order to map the evolution of regional fire cycles across Eastern North American boreal and temperate forests, following the termination of the Little Ice Age (LIA). We demonstrated a well-defined spatial pattern of post-LIA changes in the length of fire cycles toward lower fire activity during the 1800s and 1900s. The western section of Eastern North America (west of 77°W) experienced a decline in fire activity as early as the first half of the 1800s. By contrast, the eastern section showed these declines as late as the early 1900s. During a regionally fire-prone period of the 1910s-1920s, forests in the western section of Eastern boreal North America burned more than forests in the eastern section. The climate appeared to dominate over vegetation composition and human impacts in shaping the geographical pattern of the post-LIA change in fire activity. Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns following the termination of the LIA, specifically changes in Arctic Oscillation and the strengthening of the Continental Polar Trough, were likely drivers of the regional fire dynamics.

Present and Future Surface Mass Budget of Small Arctic Ice Caps in a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Koldtoft, Iben; Midefelt, Linnea; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

2016-04-01

Globally, small ice caps and glaciers make a substantial contribution to sea level rise; this is also true in the Arctic. Around Greenland small ice caps are surprisingly important to the total mass balance from the island as their marginal coastal position means they receive a large amount of precipitation and also experience high surface melt rates. Since small ice caps and glaciers have had a disproportionate number of long-term monitoring and observational schemes in the Arctic, likely due to their relative accessibility, they can also be a valuable source of data. However, in climate models the surface mass balance contributions are often not distinguished from the main ice sheet and the presence of high relief topography is difficult to capture in coarse resolution climate models. At the same time, the diminutive size of marginal ice masses in comparison to the ice sheet makes modelling their ice dynamics difficult. Using observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada and the Renland Ice Cap in Eastern Greenland, we assess the success of a very high resolution (~5km) regional climate model, HIRHAM5 in capturing the surface mass balance (SMB) of these small ice caps. The model is forced with ERA-Interim and we compare observed mean SMB and the interannual variability to assess model performance. The steep gradient in topography around Renland is challenging for climate models and additional statistical corrections are required to fit the calculated surface mass balance to the high relief topography. Results from a modelling experiment at Renland Ice Cap shows that this technique produces a better fit between modelled and observed surface topography. We apply this statistical relationship to modelled SMB on the Devon Ice Cap and use the long time series of observations from this glacier to evaluate the model and the smoothed SMB. Measured SMB values from a number of other small ice caps including Mittivakkat and A.P. Olsen ice cap are also compared

Modelled non-linear response to climate of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap, southern Norway, since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

2016-04-01

Glacier and ice cap volume changes currently amount to half of the total cryospheric contribution to sea-level rise and are projected to remain substantial throughout the 21st century. To simulate glacier behavior on centennial and longer time scales, models rely on simplified dynamics and tunable parameters for processes not well understood. Model calibration is often done using present-day observations, even though the relationship between parameters and parametrized processes may be altered for significantly different glacier states. In this study, we simulate the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene, through the Little Ice Age (LIA) and into the future. We run an ensemble for both calibration and transient experiments, using a two-dimensional ice flow model with mesh refinement. For the Holocene, we apply a simple mass balance forcing based on climate reconstructions. For the LIA until 1962, we use geomorphological evidence and measured outlet glacier positions to find a mass balance history, while we use direct mass balance measurements from 1963 until today. Given a linear climate forcing, we show that Hardangerøkulen grew from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene, to its maximum LIA extent in a highly non-linear fashion. We relate this to local bed topography and demonstrate that volume and area of some but not all outlet glaciers, as well as the entire ice cap, become decoupled for several centuries during our simulation of the late Holocene, before co-varying approaching the LIA. Our model is able to simulate most recorded ice cap and outlet glacier changes from the LIA until today. We show that present-day Hardangerøkulen is highly sensitive to mass balance changes, and estimate that the ice cap will melt completely by the year 2100.

The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations.

PubMed

Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence; Sinha, Ashish; Spötl, Christoph; Yi, Liang; Chen, Shitao; Kelly, Megan; Kathayat, Gayatri; Wang, Xianfeng; Li, Xianglei; Kong, Xinggong; Wang, Yongjin; Ning, Youfeng; Zhang, Haiwei

2016-06-30

Oxygen isotope records from Chinese caves characterize changes in both the Asian monsoon and global climate. Here, using our new speleothem data, we extend the Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range, that is, the past 640,000 years. The record's length and temporal precision allow us to test the idea that insolation changes caused by the Earth's precession drove the terminations of each of the last seven ice ages as well as the millennia-long intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall associated with each of the terminations. On the basis of our record's timing, the terminations are separated by four or five precession cycles, supporting the idea that the '100,000-year' ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in both the precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly in anti-phase with summer boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, sets the pace of the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with terminations and 'unfinished terminations'.

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koutnik, Michelle R.; Fudge, T.J.; Conway, Howard; Waddington, Edwin D.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Buizert, Christo; Taylor, Kendrick C.

2016-01-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

Holocene evolution of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial erosion inferred from Skorarvatn, Vestfirðir, Iceland: Where is the Little Ice Age?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, D.; Geirsdottir, A.; Miller, G. H.

2016-12-01

Icelandic lake sediment is well suited to provide high-resolution, well-dated continuous archives of North Atlantic climate variability. We provide new insight into the Holocene climate evolution of Vestfirðir, NW Iceland, from a 10.3 ka multi-proxy lake sediment record from non-glacial lake Skorarvatn. Age control is derived from a combination of tephrochronology and 14C-dated macrofossils. Sediment samples were analyzed for both physical (MS, density) and biological (TC, TN, δ13C, δ15N, C/N, BSi) climate proxies, providing a sub-centennial record of aquatic bioactivity and terrestrial landscape stability, and hence, summer temperature. The lake basin was ice free by at least 10.3 ka yet the waning Icelandic Ice Sheet persisted in the catchment until 9.3 ka. The local Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), inferred from maximum aquatic bioactivity, spans 8.9 to 7.2 ka but was interrupted by significant cooling at 8.2 ka. In accordance with other Icelandic climate records documenting progressively cooler summers following the HTM, our record reveals reduced aquatic productivity and elevated terrestrial erosion toward the present. Superimposed on this 1st order trend are abrupt episodes of cooling, inferred from low aquatic bioactivity and/or enhanced landscape instability, at 6.4, 4.2, 3, 2.5 and 1.5 ka. Surprisingly, there is no clear indication of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in our record despite evidence for the local ice cap, Drangajökull, attaining maximum areal coverage at this time. Persistently low temperatures inferred from reduced aquatic productivity plateau at 2 ka whereas increasing terrestrial erosion ceases at 1 ka. Lack of a catchment erosion signal during the LIA may be the result of depleted catchment soils and/or perennially frozen ground preventing the mobilization of soil and vegetation. With the exception of the LIA, Skorarvatn's qualitative summer temperature record corresponds closely to summer sea surface temperature and sea ice records on the

Stochastic dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice-albedo climate feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, Ivan

Evolution of melt ponds on the Arctic sea surface is a complicated stochastic process. We suggest a low-order model with ice-albedo feedback which describes stochastic dynamics of melt ponds geometrical characteristics. The model is a stochastic dynamical system model of energy balance in the climate system. We describe the equilibria in this model. We conclude the transition in fractal dimension of melt ponds affects the shape of the sea ice albedo curve.

The evolution of a coupled ice shelf-ocean system under different climate states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosfeld, Klaus; Sandhäger, Henner

2004-07-01

Based on a new approach for coupled applications of an ice shelf model and an ocean general circulation model, we investigate the evolution of an ice shelf-ocean system and its sensitivity to changed climatic boundary conditions. Combining established 3D models into a coupled model system enabled us to study the reaction and feedbacks of each component to changes at their interface, the ice shelf base. After calculating the dynamics for prescribed initial ice shelf and bathymetric geometries, the basal mass balance determines the system evolution. In order to explore possible developments for given boundary conditions, an idealized geometry has been chosen, reflecting basic features of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The model system is found to be especially sensitive in regions where high ablation or accretion rates occur. Ice Shelf Water formation as well as the build up of a marine ice body, resulting from accretion of marine ice, is simulated, indicating strong interaction processes. To improve consistency between modeled and observed ice shelf behavior, we incorporate the typical cycle of steady ice front advance and sudden retreat due to tabular iceberg calving in our time-dependent simulations. Our basic hypothesis is that iceberg break off is associated with abrupt crack propagation along elongated anomalies of the inherent stress field of the ice body. This new concept yields glaciologically plausible results and represents an auspicious basis for the development of a thorough calving criterion. Experiments under different climatic conditions (ocean warming of 0.2 and 0.5 °C and doubled surface accumulation rates) show the coupled model system to be sensitive especially to ocean warming. Increased basal melt rates of 100% for the 0.5 °C ocean warming scenario and an asymmetric development of ice shelf thicknesses suggest a high vulnerability of ice shelf regions, which represent pivotal areas between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern

Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2018-02-01

The presence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gas concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum fundamentally altered global ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics. Model simulations and palaeoclimate records suggest that glacial boundary conditions affected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a dominant source of short-term global climate variability. Yet little is known about changes in short-term climate variability at mid- to high latitudes. Here we use a high-resolution water isotope record from West Antarctica to demonstrate that interannual to decadal climate variability at high southern latitudes was almost twice as large at the Last Glacial Maximum as during the ensuing Holocene epoch (the past 11,700 years). Climate model simulations indicate that this increased variability reflects an increase in the teleconnection strength between the tropical Pacific and West Antarctica, owing to a shift in the mean location of tropical convection. This shift, in turn, can be attributed to the influence of topography and albedo of the North American ice sheets on atmospheric circulation. As the planet deglaciated, the largest and most abrupt decline in teleconnection strength occurred between approximately 16,000 years and 15,000 years ago, followed by a slower decline into the early Holocene.

Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

2018-05-01

A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

1500 Years of Annual Climate and Environmental Variability as Recorded in Bona-Churchill (Alaska) Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Zagorodnov, V.; Davis, M. E.; Mashiotta, T. A.; Lin, P.

2004-12-01

In 2003, six ice cores measuring 10.5, 11.5, 11.8, 12.4, 114 and 460 meters were recovered from the col between Mount Bona and Mount Churchill (61° 24'N; 141° 42'W; 4420 m asl). These cores have been analyzed for stable isotopic ratios, insoluble dust content and concentrations of major chemical species. Total Beta radioactivity was measured in the upper sections. The 460-meter core, extending to bedrock, captured the entire depositional record at this site where ice temperatures ranged from -24° C at 10 meters to -19.8° C at the ice/bedrock contact. The shallow cores allow assessment of surface processes under modern meteorological conditions while the deep core offers a ˜1500-year climate and environmental perspective. The average annual net balance is ˜~1000 mm of water equivalent and distinct annual signals in dust and calcium concentrations along with δ 18O allow annual resolution over most of the core. The excess sulfate record reflects many known large volcanic eruptions such as Katmai, Krakatau, Tambora, and Laki which allow validation of the time scale in the upper part of the core. The lower part of the core yields a history of earlier volcanic events. The 460-m Bona-Churchill ice core provides a detailed history of the `Little Ice Age' and medieval warm periods for southeastern Alaska. The source of the White River Ash will be discussed in light of the evidence from this core. The 460-m core also provides a long-term history of the dust fall that originates in north-central China. The annual ice core-derived climate records from southeastern Alaska will facilitate an investigation of the likelihood that the high resolution 1500-year record from the tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap (Peru) preserves a history of the variability of both the PDO and the Aleutian Low.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

2017-12-01

The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

Influence of projected snow and sea-ice changes on future climate in heavy snowfall region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumura, S.; Sato, T.

2011-12-01

Snow/ice albedo and cloud feedbacks are critical for climate change projection in cryosphere regions. However, future snow and sea-ice distributions are significantly different in each GCM. Thus, surface albedo in cryosphere regions is one of the causes of the uncertainty for climate change projection. Northern Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall regions in the world. In particular, Hokkaido is bounded on the north by the Okhotsk Sea, where is the southernmost ocean in the Northern Hemisphere that is covered with sea ice during winter. Wintertime climate around Hokkaido is highly sensitive to fluctuations in snow and sea-ice. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of global warming on future climate around Hokkaido, using the Pseudo-Global-Warming method (PGW) by a regional climate model. The boundary conditions of the PGW run were obtained by adding the difference between the future (2090s) and past (1990s) climates simulated by coupled general circulation model (MIROC3.2 medres), which is from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset, into the 6-hourly NCEP reanalysis (R-2) and daily OISST data in the past climate (CTL) run. The PGW experiments show that snow depth significantly decreases over mountainous areas and snow cover mainly decreases over plain areas, contributing to higher surface warming due to the decreased snow albedo. Despite the snow reductions, precipitation mainly increases over the mountainous areas because of enhanced water vapor content. However, precipitation decreases over the Japan Sea and the coastal areas, indicating the weakening of a convergent cloud band, which is formed by convergence between cold northwesteries from the Eurasian continent and anticyclonic circulation over the Okhotsk Sea. These results suggest that Okhotsk sea-ice decline may change the atmospheric circulation and the resulting effect on cloud formation, resulting in changes in winter snow or precipitation. We will also examine another CMIP3 model (MRI-CGCM2

Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

2014-05-01

Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the

Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebrand, Diederik; de Bakker, Anouk T. M.; Beddow, Helen M.; Wilson, Paul A.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Ruessink, Gerben; Pälike, Heiko; Batenburg, Sietske J.; Hilgen, Frederik J.; Hodell, David A.; Huck, Claire E.; Kroon, Dick; Raffi, Isabella; Saes, Mischa J. M.; van Dijk, Arnold E.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the stability of the early Antarctic ice cap in the geological past is of societal interest because present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached values comparable to those estimated for the Oligocene and the Early Miocene epochs. Here we analyze a new high-resolution deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from the South Atlantic Ocean spanning an interval between 30.1 My and 17.1 My ago. The record displays major oscillations in deep-sea temperature and Antarctic ice volume in response to the ˜110-ky eccentricity modulation of precession. Conservative minimum ice volume estimates show that waxing and waning of at least ˜85 to 110% of the volume of the present East Antarctic Ice Sheet is required to explain many of the ˜110-ky cycles. Antarctic ice sheets were typically largest during repeated glacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene (˜28.0 My to ˜26.3 My ago) and across the Oligocene-Miocene Transition (˜23.0 My ago). However, the high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene are highly symmetrical, indicating a more direct response to eccentricity modulation of precession than their Early Miocene counterparts, which are distinctly asymmetrical—indicative of prolonged ice buildup and delayed, but rapid, glacial terminations. We hypothesize that the long-term transition to a warmer climate state with sawtooth-shaped glacial cycles in the Early Miocene was brought about by subsidence and glacial erosion in West Antarctica during the Late Oligocene and/or a change in the variability of atmospheric CO2 levels on astronomical time scales that is not yet captured in existing proxy reconstructions.

Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages

PubMed Central

de Bakker, Anouk T. M.; Beddow, Helen M.; Wilson, Paul A.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Pälike, Heiko; Batenburg, Sietske J.; Hilgen, Frederik J.; Hodell, David A.; Huck, Claire E.; Kroon, Dick; Raffi, Isabella; Saes, Mischa J. M.; van Dijk, Arnold E.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-01-01

Understanding the stability of the early Antarctic ice cap in the geological past is of societal interest because present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached values comparable to those estimated for the Oligocene and the Early Miocene epochs. Here we analyze a new high-resolution deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from the South Atlantic Ocean spanning an interval between 30.1 My and 17.1 My ago. The record displays major oscillations in deep-sea temperature and Antarctic ice volume in response to the ∼110-ky eccentricity modulation of precession. Conservative minimum ice volume estimates show that waxing and waning of at least ∼85 to 110% of the volume of the present East Antarctic Ice Sheet is required to explain many of the ∼110-ky cycles. Antarctic ice sheets were typically largest during repeated glacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene (∼28.0 My to ∼26.3 My ago) and across the Oligocene−Miocene Transition (∼23.0 My ago). However, the high-amplitude glacial−interglacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene are highly symmetrical, indicating a more direct response to eccentricity modulation of precession than their Early Miocene counterparts, which are distinctly asymmetrical—indicative of prolonged ice buildup and delayed, but rapid, glacial terminations. We hypothesize that the long-term transition to a warmer climate state with sawtooth-shaped glacial cycles in the Early Miocene was brought about by subsidence and glacial erosion in West Antarctica during the Late Oligocene and/or a change in the variability of atmospheric CO2 levels on astronomical time scales that is not yet captured in existing proxy reconstructions. PMID:28348211

Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

2013-12-01

Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and

Toward unified ice core chronologies with the DatIce tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toye Mahamadou Kele, H.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Blayo, E.

2012-04-01

Antarctic and Greenland ice cores provide a means to study the phase relationships of climate changes in both hemispheres. They also enable to study the timing between climate, and greenhouse gases or orbital forcings. One key step for such studies is to improve the absolute and relative precisions of ice core age scales (for ice and trapped gas), and beyond that, to try to reach the best consistency between chronologies of paleo records of any kind. The DatIce tool is designed to increase the consistency between pre-existing (also called background) core chronologies. It formulates a variational inverse problem which aims at correcting three key quantities that uniquely define the core age scales: the accumulation rate, the total thinning function, and the close-off depth. For that purpose, it integrates paleo data constraints of many types among which age markers (with for instance documented volcanoes eruptions), and stratigraphic links (with for instance abrupt changes in methane concentration). A cost function is built that enables to calculate new chronologies by making a trade-off between all the constraints (background chronologies and paleo data). The method presented in Lemieux-Dudon et al (2010) has already been applied simultaneously to EPICA EDML and EDC, Vostok and NGRIP. Currently, on going works are conducted at LSCE Saclay and LGGE Grenoble laboratories to construct unified Antarctic chronologies by applying the DatIce tool with new ice cores and new sets of paleo measurements. We here present the DatIce tool, the underlying methodology, and its potential applications. We further show some improvements that have been made recently. We especially adress the issue related to the calibration of the error of pre-existing core chronologies. They are inputs that may have a strong impact on the results. However these uncertainties are uneasy to analyze, since prior chronologies are most of the time assessed on the basis of glaciological models (firn

Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-03-01

We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

Preservation of Late Amazonian Mars ice and water-related deposits in a unique crater environment in Noachis Terra: Age relationships between lobate debris tongues and gullies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, Gareth A.; Head, James W.; Marchant, David R.

2011-01-01

The Amazonian period of Mars has been described as static, cold, and dry. Recent analysis of high-resolution imagery of equatorial and mid-latitude regions has revealed an array of young landforms produced in association with ice and liquid water; because near-surface ice in these regions is currently unstable, these ice-and-water-related landforms suggest one or more episodes of martian climate change during the Amazonian. Here we report on the origin and evolution of valley systems within a degraded crater in Noachis Terra, Asimov Crater. The valleys have produced a unique environment in which to study the geomorphic signals of Amazonian climate change. New high-resolution images reveal Hesperian-aged layered basalt with distinctive columnar jointing capping interior crater fill and providing debris, via mass wasting, for the surrounding annular valleys. The occurrence of steep slopes (>20°), relatively narrow (sheltered) valleys, and a source of debris have provided favorable conditions for the preservation of shallow-ice deposits. Detailed mapping reveals morphological evidence for viscous ice flow, in the form of several lobate debris tongues (LDT). Superimposed on LDT are a series of fresh-appearing gullies, with typical alcove, channel, and fan morphologies. The shift from ice-rich viscous-flow formation to gully erosion is best explained as a shift in martian climate, from one compatible with excess snowfall and flow of ice-rich deposits, to one consistent with minor snow and gully formation. Available dating suggests that the climate transition occurred >8 Ma, prior to the formation of other small-scale ice-rich flow features identified elsewhere on Mars that have been interpreted to have formed during the most recent phases of high obliquity. Taken together, these older deposits suggest that multiple climatic shifts have occurred over the last tens of millions of years of martian history.

Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Marx, Lawrence; Wu, Xingren; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zhang, Shaoqing; Lu, Jian; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kinter, James L., III

2015-01-01

There are potential advantages to extending operational seasonal forecast models to predict decadal variability but major efforts are required to assess the model fidelity for this task. In this study, we examine the North Atlantic climate simulated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), using a set of ensemble decadal hindcasts and several 30-year simulations initialized from realistic ocean-atmosphere states. It is found that a substantial climate drift occurs in the first few years of the CFSv2 hindcasts, which represents a major systematic bias and may seriously affect the model's fidelity for decadal prediction. In particular, it is noted that a major reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the northern North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly. This freshening is likely caused by the excessive freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and weakened subtropical water transport by the North Atlantic Current. A potential source of the excessive freshwater is the quick melting of sea ice, which also causes unrealistically thin ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Our sensitivity experiments with adjusted sea ice albedo parameters produce a sustainable ice cover with realistic thickness distribution. It also leads to a moderate increase of the AMOC strength. This study suggests that a realistic freshwater balance, including a proper sea ice feedback, is crucial for simulating the North Atlantic climate and its variability.

Recent Climate and Ice-Sheet Changes in West Antarctica Compared with the Past 2,000 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steig, Eric J.; Ding, Qinghua; White, James W.; Kuttel, Marcel; Rupper, Summer B.; Neumann, Thomas Allen; Neff, Peter D.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Taylor, Kendrick C.;

Contrasting responses to a climate regime change by sympatric, ice-dependent predators.

PubMed

Younger, Jane L; van den Hoff, John; Wienecke, Barbara; Hindell, Mark; Miller, Karen J

2016-03-15

Models that predict changes in the abundance and distribution of fauna under future climate change scenarios often assume that ecological niche and habitat availability are the major determinants of species' responses to climate change. However, individual species may have very different capacities to adapt to environmental change, as determined by intrinsic factors such as their dispersal ability, genetic diversity, generation time and rate of evolution. These intrinsic factors are usually excluded from forecasts of species' abundance and distribution changes. We aimed to determine the importance of these factors by comparing the impact of the most recent climate regime change, the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial transition, on two sympatric, ice-dependent meso-predators, the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii). We reconstructed the population trend of emperor penguins and Weddell seals in East Antarctica over the past 75,000 years using mitochondrial DNA sequences and an extended Bayesian skyline plot method. We also assessed patterns of contemporary population structure and genetic diversity. Despite their overlapping distributions and shared dependence on sea ice, our genetic data revealed very different responses to climate warming between these species. The emperor penguin population grew rapidly following the glacial-interglacial transition, but the size of the Weddell seal population did not change. The expansion of emperor penguin numbers during the warm Holocene may have been facilitated by their higher dispersal ability and gene flow among colonies, and fine-scale differences in preferred foraging locations. The vastly different climate change responses of two sympatric ice-dependent predators suggests that differing adaptive capacities and/or fine-scale niche differences can play a major role in species' climate change responses, and that adaptive capacity should be considered alongside niche and

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. H.

1984-01-01

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM.

The evolution of pCO2, ice volume and climate during the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Gavin L.; Lear, Caroline H.; Rae, James W. B.

2012-08-01

The middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (17-15 Ma; MCO) is a period of global warmth and relatively high CO2 and is thought to be associated with a significant retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). We present here a new planktic foraminiferal δ11B record from 16.6 to 11.8 Ma from two deep ocean sites currently in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. These new data demonstrate that the evolution of global climate during the middle Miocene (as reflected by changes in the cyrosphere) was well correlated to variations in the concentration of atmospheric CO2. What is more, within our sampling resolution (∼1 sample per 300 kyr) there is no evidence of hysteresis in the response of ice volume to CO2 forcing during the middle Miocene, contrary to what is understood about the Antarctic Ice Sheet from ice sheet modelling studies. In agreement with previous data, we show that absolute levels of CO2 during the MCO were relatively modest (350-400 ppm) and levels either side of the MCO are similar or lower than the pre-industrial (200-260 ppm). These new data imply the presence of either a very dynamic AIS at relatively low CO2 during the middle Miocene or the advance and retreat of significant northern hemisphere ice. Recent drilling on the Antarctic margin and shore based studies indicate significant retreat and advance beyond the modern limits of the AIS did occur during the middle Miocene, but the complete loss of the AIS was unlikely. Consequently, it seems that ice volume and climate variations during the middle Miocene probably involved a more dynamic AIS than the modern but also some component of land-based ice in the northern hemisphere.

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number

The Role of Sea Ice in 2 x CO2 Climate Model Sensitivity. Part 2; Hemispheric Dependencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Healy, R.; Parkinson, C.; Martinson, D.

1997-01-01

How sensitive are doubled CO2 simulations to GCM control-run sea ice thickness and extent? This issue is examined in a series of 10 control-run simulations with different sea ice and corresponding doubled CO2 simulations. Results show that with increased control-run sea ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere, temperature sensitivity with climate change is enhanced, while there is little effect on temperature sensitivity of (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice thickness. In the Northern Hemisphere the situation is reversed: sea ice thickness is the key parameter, while (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice coverage are of less importance. In both cases, the quantity of sea ice that can be removed in the warmer climate is the determining factor. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage change had a larger impact on global temperature, because Northern Hemisphere sea ice was sufficiently thick to limit its response to doubled CO2, and sea ice changes generally occurred at higher latitudes, reducing the sea ice-albedo feedback. In both these experiments and earlier ones in which sea ice was not allowed to change, the model displayed a sensitivity of -0.02 C global warming per percent change in Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage.

Late glacial and Early Holocene climatic conditions along the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, registered by glacial extents in Milne Land, east Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.

2010-12-01

Determining the mechanisms that caused past abrupt climate changes is important for understanding today’s rapidly warming climate and, in particular, whether we may be faced with abrupt climate change in the future. Scientists, policy makers and the public are concerned about ongoing warming because it is sending our climate into unprecedented territory at a rapid pace. The Younger Dryas cold event (~12,850-11,650 cal yr B.P.) was an abrupt climate event that occurred during the last transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. Due to its abrupt nature and the magnitude of temperature change that occurred, the Younger Dryas has been the focus of extensive research, however, the mechanisms that caused this cold event are still not well understood. Wide belts (up to 5 km) of moraines, known as the Milne Land stade moraines, are present in the Scoresby Sund region of central east Greenland. Previous work in the region using a combination of equilibrium line altitudes, surface exposure dating of moraines, and relative sea level changes indicates that mountain glacier advances during Younger Dryas time represent only moderate summer temperature cooling (~3-4C colder than at present). In contrast, Greenland ice cores, which register mean annual temperatures, indicate that Younger Dryas temperatures over the ice sheet were ~15C colder than at present. This mismatch between the two nearby paleoclimate records is interpreted to result from strong seasonality (very cold winters and only moderately cold summers) during Younger Dryas time. We are examining seasonality during Younger Dryas time by developing records of summer temperatures from local glaciers in Milne Land (71.0°N, 25.6°W). These mountain glaciers are located adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet, less than 50 km from the location of Renland Ice core and only ~250 km from the locations of the GISP2 and GRIP cores. We present new 10Be ages of local glacial extents in Milne Land. Ages range from 11,880 yr

The last forests in Greenland, and the age of the ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funder, Svend; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Willerslev, Eske

2014-05-01

Recently ancient DNA (aDNA) studies of the basal ice in the Camp Century ice core, northern Greenland, have shown that mixed coniferous-deciduous forest grew here before the area was invaded and permanently covered by the ice sheet. The coring site is situated only 100 km from the present ice margin and more than 500 km from the ice divide, indicating that since this last inception the northern part of the ice sheet never receded more than 100 km from its present margin. Dating of the basal ice and obtaining an age for the forest and for the beginning of the ice sheet's permanency has been attempted by analyzing for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), meteoric 10Be/36Cl cosmogenic nuclides, 234U/238U recoil. These methods all provide only minimum ages and show that the forest at Cap Century is older than 500 ka. Comparison with other Pleistocene "forest sites" in Greenland - the Kap København Formation in northernmost Greenland, the DYE-3 ice core in the south, the ODP boring 646 south of Greenland, as well as results from basal ice in the GRIP ice core - extends the minimum age to c. 1 ma. The maximum age is provided by the Kap København Formation, which must be older - or contemporaneous. The formation has recently been confirmed to date within the interval 2-2.5 ma, with a preferred age of 2.3-2.4 ma. Surprisingly, application of the molecular clock of insect COI sequences on the Camp Century aDNA now seem to push the minimum age just as far back - to 2.4 ma, suggesting that the timberline boreal forest at Kap København is contemporaneous with the mixed forest at Camp Century, 600 km to the south. From this we conclude that the northern ice sheet dome, which today contains 85% of the total ice sheet volume, has remained within 100 km of its present margin for at least 1 ma, and possibly may go back as far as 2.4 ma. The ice sheet has therefore survived both interglacials and "super interglacials" that were both warmer and longer than the present. This

There goes the sea ice: following Arctic sea ice parcels and their properties.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tschudi, M. A.; Tooth, M.; Meier, W.; Stewart, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice distribution has changed considerably over the last couple of decades. Sea ice extent record minimums have been observed in recent years, the distribution of ice age now heavily favors younger ice, and sea ice is likely thinning. This new state of the Arctic sea ice cover has several impacts, including effects on marine life, feedback on the warming of the ocean and atmosphere, and on the future evolution of the ice pack. The shift in the state of the ice cover, from a pack dominated by older ice, to the current state of a pack with mostly young ice, impacts specific properties of the ice pack, and consequently the pack's response to the changing Arctic climate. For example, younger ice typically contains more numerous melt ponds during the melt season, resulting in a lower albedo. First-year ice is typically thinner and more fragile than multi-year ice, making it more susceptible to dynamic and thermodynamic forcing. To investigate the response of the ice pack to climate forcing during summertime melt, we have developed a database that tracks individual Arctic sea ice parcels along with associated properties as these parcels advect during the summer. Our database tracks parcels in the Beaufort Sea, from 1985 - present, along with variables such as ice surface temperature, albedo, ice concentration, and convergence. We are using this database to deduce how these thousands of tracked parcels fare during summer melt, i.e. what fraction of the parcels advect through the Beaufort, and what fraction melts out? The tracked variables describe the thermodynamic and dynamic forcing on these parcels during their journey. This database will also be made available to all interested investigators, after it is published in the near future. The attached image shows the ice surface temperature of all parcels (right) that advected through the Beaufort Sea region (left) in 2014.

Evidence for smaller extents of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet and North Ice Cap during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Axford, Y.; Bigl, M.; Birkel, S. D.; Corbett, L. B.; Roy, E. P.; Thompson, J. T.; Whitecloud, S.

2013-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and local glaciers on Greenland are responding dynamically to warming temperatures with widespread retreat. GRACE satellite data (e.g., Kahn et al., 2010) and the Petermann Glacier calving events document the recent expansion of ice loss into northwestern Greenland. To improve the ability to estimate future ice loss in a warming climate, we are developing records of the response of the northwestern Greenlandic cryosphere to Holocene climatic conditions, with a focus on past warm periods. Our ongoing research includes analyses of glacial geology, sub-fossil vegetation, lake sediment cores, chironomid assemblages and ice cores combined with glaciological modeling. To constrain past ice extents that were as small as, or smaller than, at present, we recovered sub-fossil vegetation exposed at the receding margins of the GrIS and North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W) and of the GrIS near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W). We present vegetation types and radiocarbon ages of 30 plant samples collected in August 2012. In the Nunatarssuaq region, five ages of in situ (rooted) vegetation including Polytrichum moss, Saxifraga nathorstii and grasses located <5 m outboard of the GrIS margin are ~120-200 cal yr BP (range of medians of the 2-sigma calibrated age ranges). Nine ages of in situ Polytrichum, Saxifraga oppositafolia and grasses from ~1-5 m inboard of the NIC margin (excavated from beneath ice) range from ~50 to 310 cal yr BP. The growth of these plants occurred when the GrIS and NIC were at least as small as at present and their ages suggest that ice advances occurred in the last 50-120 yrs. In addition to the in situ samples, we collected plants from well-preserved ground material exposed along shear planes in the GrIS margins. In Nunatarssuaq, two Polytrichum mosses rooted in ground material and exposed along a shear plane in the GrIS margin date to 4680 and 4730 cal yr BP. Near Thule, three ages of Salix arctica

Climate Sensitivity to Realistic Solar Heating of Snow and Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanner, M.; Zender, C. S.

2004-12-01

Snow and ice-covered surfaces are highly reflective and play an integral role in the planetary radiation budget. However, GCMs typically prescribe snow reflection and absorption based on minimal knowledge of snow physical characteristics. We performed climate sensitivity simulations with the NCAR CCSM including a new physically-based multi-layer snow radiative transfer model. The model predicts the effects of vertically resolved heating, absorbing aerosol, and snowpack transparency on snowpack evolution and climate. These processes significantly reduce the model's near-infrared albedo bias over deep snowpacks. While the current CCSM implementation prescribes all solar radiative absorption to occur in the top 2 cm of snow, we estimate that about 65% occurs beneath this level. Accounting for the vertical distribution of snowpack heating and more realistic reflectance significantly alters snowpack depth, surface albedo, and surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere regions. Implications for the strength of the ice-albedo feedback will be discussed.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, Michael E.; Clark, Peter U.; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-01-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Weber, Michael E; Clark, Peter U; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hostetler, Steven W; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-12-02

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Increase in penguin populations during the Little Ice Age in the Ross Sea, Antarctica.

PubMed

Hu, Qi-Hou; Sun, Li-Guang; Xie, Zhou-Qing; Emslie, Steven D; Liu, Xiao-Dong

2013-01-01

Penguins are an important seabird species in Antarctica and are sensitive to climate and environmental changes. Previous studies indicated that penguin populations increased when the climate became warmer and decreased when it became colder in the maritime Antarctic. Here we determined organic markers in a sediment profile collected at Cape Bird, Ross Island, high Antarctic, and reconstructed the history of Adélie penguin colonies at this location over the past 700 years. The region transformed from a seal to a penguin habitat when the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1500-1800 AD) began. Penguins then became the dominant species. Penguin populations were the highest during ca. 1490 to 1670 AD, a cold period, which is contrary to previous results in other regions much farther north. Different responses to climate change may occur at low latitudes and high latitudes in the Antarctic, even if for same species.

Correcting anthropogenic ocean heat uptake estimates for the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, Geoffrey

2017-04-01

Estimates of anthropogenic ocean heat uptake typically assume that the ocean was in equilibrium during the pre-industrial era. Recent reconstructions of the Common Era, however, show a multi-century surface cooling trend before the Industrial Revolution. Using a time-evolving state estimation method, we find that the 1750 C.E. ocean must have been out of equilibrium in order to fit the H.M.S. Challenger, WOCE, and Argo hydrographic data. When the disequilibrated ocean conditions are taken into account, the inferred ocean heat uptake from 1750-2014 C.E. is revised due to the deep ocean memory of Little Ice Age surface forcing. These effects of ocean disequilibrium should also be considered when interpreting climate sensitivity estimates.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics

PubMed Central

Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.

PubMed

Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N

2013-05-24

Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

2013-01-01

A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

Episodic expansion of Drangajökull, Vestfirðir, Iceland, over the last 3 ka culminating in its maximum dimension during the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harning, David J.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Anderson, Leif

2016-11-01

Non-linear climate change is often linked to rapid changes in ocean circulation, especially around the North Atlantic. As the Polar Front fluctuated its latitudinal position during the Holocene, Iceland's climate was influenced by both the warm Atlantic currents and cool, sea ice-bearing Arctic currents. Drangajökull is Iceland's fifth largest ice cap. Climate proxies in lake sediment cores, dead vegetation emerging from beneath the ice cap, and moraine segments identified in a new DEM constrain the episodic expansion of the ice cap over the past 3 ka. Collectively, our data show that Drangajökull was advancing at ∼320 BCE, 180 CE, 560 CE, 950 CE and 1400 CE and in a state of recession at ∼450 CE, 1250 CE and after 1850 CE. The Late Holocene maximum extent of Drangajökull occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), occupying 262 km2, almost twice its area in 2011 CE and ∼20% larger than recent estimates of its LIA dimensions. Biological proxies from the sediment fill in a high- and low-elevation lake suggest limited vegetation and soil cover at high elevations proximal to the ice cap, whereas thick soil cover persisted until ∼750 CE at lower elevations near the coast. As Drangajökull expanded into the catchment of the high-elevation lake beginning at ∼950 CE, aquatic productivity diminished, following a trend of regional cooling supported by proxy records elsewhere in Iceland. Correlations between episodes of Drangajökull's advance and the documented occurrence of drift ice on the North Icelandic Shelf suggest export and local production of sea ice influenced the evolution of NW Iceland's Late Holocene climate.

Comments on Hamaker's hypothesis of a coming CO/sub 2/-induced ice age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacCracken, M.C.

1989-06-01

Over the past several years, John Hamaker and a number of followers have put forth a hypothesis that the imminent demise of the world's forests from lack of vital mineral nutrients will trigger an ice age. Their evidence in support of this hypothesis has recently appeared as a videotape entitled ''Stopping the Coming Ice Age.'' These comments were prepared in response to the arguments presented on this tape, which several people have suggested presents a highly important scientific analysis unfairly receiving too little attention. I will focus primarily on analysis of the climatic aspects of the Hamaker hypothesis. The videotapemore » attempts to put forth a coherent and appealing story, but does so by taking comments of some scientists out of context, by quoting some scientists out of their field of expertise, by skimming over some serious shortcomings, by facile assumptions not easily spotted by the non-specialist, and by mixing in many true statements (which makes it especially difficult for the lay listener to spot the problems). Overall, these actions combine to make the presentation of the hypothesis very appealing, but also very deceptive.« less

Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

2000-05-01

A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

Geochemical record of high emperor penguin populations during the Little Ice Age at Amanda Bay, Antarctica.

PubMed

Huang, Tao; Yang, Lianjiao; Chu, Zhuding; Sun, Liguang; Yin, Xijie

2016-09-15

Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are sensitive to the Antarctic climate change because they breed on the fast sea ice. Studies of paleohistory for the emperor penguin are rare, due to the lack of archives on land. In this study, we obtained an emperor penguin ornithogenic sediment profile (PI) and performed geochronological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses on the sediments and feather remains. Two radiocarbon dates of penguin feathers in PI indicate that emperor penguins colonized Amanda Bay as early as CE 1540. By using the bio-elements (P, Se, Hg, Zn and Cd) in sediments and stable isotope values (δ(15)N and δ(13)C) in feathers, we inferred relative population size and dietary change of emperor penguins during the period of CE 1540-2008, respectively. An increase in population size with depleted N isotope ratios for emperor penguins on N island at Amanda Bay during the Little Ice Age (CE 1540-1866) was observed, suggesting that cold climate affected the penguin's breeding habitat, prey availability and thus their population and dietary composition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

Ice Streams as the Critical Link Between the Interior Ice Reservoir of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Global Climate System - a WISSARD Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Beem, L.; Walter, J. I.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Mankoff, K. D.

2010-12-01

Fast flowing ice streams represent crucial features of the Antarctic ice sheet because they provide discharge ‘valves’ for the interior ice reservoir and because their grounding lines are exposed to ocean thermal forcing. Even with no/little topographic control ice flow near the perimeter of a polar ice sheet self-organizes into discrete, fast-flowing ice streams. Within these features basal melting (i.e. lubrication for ice sliding) is sustained through elevated basal shear heating in a region of thin ice that would otherwise be characterized by basal freezing and slow ice motion. Because faster basal ice motion is typically associated with faster subglacial erosion, ice streams tend to localize themselves over time by carving troughs into underlying rocks and sediments. Debris generated by this erosional activity is carried to the continental shelf and/or continental slope where it may be deposited at very high rates, rivaling these associated with deposition by some of the largest rivers on Earth. In terms of their hydrologic and geological functions, Antarctic ice streams play pretty much the same role as rivers do on non-glaciated continents. However, understanding of their dynamics is still quite rudimentary, largely because of the relative inaccessibility of the key basal and marine boundaries of ice streams where pertinent measurements need to be made. The present elevated interest in predicting future contribution of Antarctica to global sea level changes is driving ambitious research programs aimed at scientific exploration of these poorly investigated environments that will play a key role in defining the response of the ice sheet to near future climate changes. We will review one of these programs, the Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling (WISSARD) with particular focus on its planned contributions to understanding of ice stream dynamics.

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beghin, P.; Charbit, S.; Dumas, C.; Kageyama, M.; Ritz, C.

2015-10-01

It is now widely acknowledged that past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covering Canada and northern Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a strong influence on climate by causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In turn, these changes may have impacted the development of the ice sheets themselves through a combination of different feedback mechanisms. The present study is designed to investigate the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Eurasian ice sheet driven by simulated changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using the LMDZ5 atmospheric circulation model, we carried out 12 experiments under constant LGM conditions for insolation, greenhouse gases and ocean. In these experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet is removed. The 12 experiments differ in the North American ice-sheet topography, ranging from a white and flat (present-day topography) ice sheet to a full-size LGM ice sheet. This experimental design allows the albedo and the topographic impacts of the North American ice sheet onto the climate to be disentangled. The results are compared to our baseline experiment where both the North American and the Eurasian ice sheets have been removed. In summer, the sole albedo effect of the American ice sheet modifies the pattern of planetary waves with respect to the no-ice-sheet case, resulting in a cooling of the northwestern Eurasian region. By contrast, the atmospheric circulation changes induced by the topography of the North American ice sheet lead to a strong decrease of this cooling. In winter, the Scandinavian and the Barents-Kara regions respond differently to the American ice-sheet albedo effect: in response to atmospheric circulation changes, Scandinavia becomes warmer and total precipitation is more abundant, whereas the Barents-Kara area becomes cooler with a decrease of convective processes, causing a decrease of total precipitation. The gradual increase of the

Century/millennium internal climate oscillations in an ocean-atmosphere-continental ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birchfield, Edward G.; Wang, Huaxiao; Rich, Jonathan J.

1994-01-01

We demonstrate in a simple climate model that there exist nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets capable of producing century/millennium timescale internal oscillations resembling those seen in the paleoclimate record. Feedbacks involve meridional heat and salt transports in the North Atlantic, surface ocean freshwater fluxes associated with melting and growing continental ice sheets in the northen hemisphere and with Atlantic to Pacific water vapor transport. The positive feedback between the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the meridional salt transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation tends to destabilize the climate system, while the negative feedback between the freshwater flux, either to or from the continental ice sheets, and meridional heat flux to the high-latitude North Atlantic, accomplished by the thermohaline circulation, stabilizes the system. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in both positive and negative feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. Because of asymmetries between the growth and melt phases the oscillations are, in general, accompanied by a growing or decreasing ice volume over each cycle, which in the model is reflected by increasing or decreasing mean salinity.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves

Icebergs, sea ice, blue carbon and Antarctic climate feedbacks

PubMed Central

Fleming, Andrew; Sands, Chester J.; Quartino, Maria Liliana; Deregibus, Dolores

2018-01-01

Sea ice, including icebergs, has a complex relationship with the carbon held within animals (blue carbon) in the polar regions. Sea-ice losses around West Antarctica's continental shelf generate longer phytoplankton blooms but also make it a hotspot for coastal iceberg disturbance. This matters because in polar regions ice scour limits blue carbon storage ecosystem services, which work as a powerful negative feedback on climate change (less sea ice increases phytoplankton blooms, benthic growth, seabed carbon and sequestration). This resets benthic biota succession (maintaining regional biodiversity) and also fertilizes the ocean with nutrients, generating phytoplankton blooms, which cascade carbon capture into seabed storage and burial by benthos. Small icebergs scour coastal shallows, whereas giant icebergs ground deeper, offshore. Significant benthic communities establish where ice shelves have disintegrated (giant icebergs calving), and rapidly grow to accumulate blue carbon storage. When 5000 km2 giant icebergs calve, we estimate that they generate approximately 106 tonnes of immobilized zoobenthic carbon per year (t C yr−1). However, their collisions with the seabed crush and recycle vast benthic communities, costing an estimated 4 × 104 t C yr−1. We calculate that giant iceberg formation (ice shelf disintegration) has a net potential of approximately 106 t C yr−1 sequestration benefits as well as more widely known negative impacts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change’. PMID:29760118

Icebergs, sea ice, blue carbon and Antarctic climate feedbacks.

PubMed

Barnes, David K A; Fleming, Andrew; Sands, Chester J; Quartino, Maria Liliana; Deregibus, Dolores

2018-06-28

Sea ice, including icebergs, has a complex relationship with the carbon held within animals (blue carbon) in the polar regions. Sea-ice losses around West Antarctica's continental shelf generate longer phytoplankton blooms but also make it a hotspot for coastal iceberg disturbance. This matters because in polar regions ice scour limits blue carbon storage ecosystem services, which work as a powerful negative feedback on climate change (less sea ice increases phytoplankton blooms, benthic growth, seabed carbon and sequestration). This resets benthic biota succession (maintaining regional biodiversity) and also fertilizes the ocean with nutrients, generating phytoplankton blooms, which cascade carbon capture into seabed storage and burial by benthos. Small icebergs scour coastal shallows, whereas giant icebergs ground deeper, offshore. Significant benthic communities establish where ice shelves have disintegrated (giant icebergs calving), and rapidly grow to accumulate blue carbon storage. When 5000 km 2 giant icebergs calve, we estimate that they generate approximately 10 6 tonnes of immobilized zoobenthic carbon per year (t C yr -1 ). However, their collisions with the seabed crush and recycle vast benthic communities, costing an estimated 4 × 10 4  t C yr -1 We calculate that giant iceberg formation (ice shelf disintegration) has a net potential of approximately 10 6  t C yr -1 sequestration benefits as well as more widely known negative impacts.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Authors.

Holocene glacier and climate variations in Vestfirðir, Iceland, from the modeling of Drangajökull ice cap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Leif S.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna Th; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Harning, David J.; Thorsteinsson, Thorsteinn; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-06-01

Drangajökull is a maritime ice cap located in northwest (Vestfirðir) Iceland. Drangajökull's evolution is therefore closely linked to atmospheric and ocean variability. In order to better constrain the Holocene climate and glacier history of Vestfirðir we model the past evolution of Drangajökull ice cap. Simulations from 10 ka to present are forced by general circulation model output, ice-core-based temperature reconstructions, and sea-surface temperature reconstructions. Based on these 10-thousand year simulations, Drangajökull did not persist through the Holocene. We estimate that air temperatures were 2.5-3.0 °C higher during the Holocene Thermal Maximum than the local 1960-1990 average. Simulations support Drangajökull's late Holocene inception between 2 and 1 ka, though intermittent ice likely occupied cirques as early as 2.6 ka. Drangajökull is primarily a Little Ice Age ice cap: it expanded between 1300 and 1750 CE, with the most rapid growth occurring between 1600 and 1750 CE. The maximum Holocene extent of Drangajökull occurred between 1700 and 1925 CE, despite the lowest late Holocene temperatures, occurring between 1650 and 1720 CE. Between 1700 and 1925 CE temperatures were likely 0.6-0.8 °C lower than the 1950-2015 reference temperature. The modern equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is bracketed by topographic thresholds: a 1 °C temperature increase from the modern ELA would eliminate the ice cap's accumulation area, while a reduction of 0.5 °C would lead to the rapid expansion of the ice cap across Vestfirðir. The proximity of Drangajökull to topographic thresholds may explain its late inception and rapid expansion during the Little Ice Age.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

The Holocene Minimum of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Radiocarbon Model Ages for Subglacial Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Stansell, N.; Scherer, R. P.; Powell, R. D.

2017-12-01

It is commonly assumed that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is at the present time as small as it has been since at least the last interglacial period about 125,000 years ago. Yet, our recent analyses of subglacial sediments recovered from beneath the ice sheet indicate regionally widespread presence of radiocarbon. This unstable isotope with half life of 5,730 years should decay to nil if the analyzed subglacial sediment samples have been isolated beneath the ice sheet from the atmosphere and the ocean for 125,000 years (over 20 half lives). However, the apparent radiocarbon ages for these samples are in the range of about 20,000-30,000 years BP, based on radiocarbon Fraction Modern (FM) of a few to several percent. The apparent sediment ages cannot be taken at face value because: (1) they overlap with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when WAIS is known to have extended over 1,000 km past the sediment sampling locations, and (2) Antarctic glacigenic sediments commonly contain significant admixture of old, radiocarbon-dead organic matter. The latter biases apparent radiocarbon ages because it violates the assumption that the initial radiocarbon fraction in a sample was equal to FM. To mitigate the problem with apparent ages, we assume that initial radiocarbon fraction in subglacial sediments was equal to that determined by us independently in J-9 sediments from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) and calculate radiocarbon 'model ages' between 1,000 and 6,000 years BP. This period of time overlaps with a regional climatic optimum and with late phases of post-LGM glacioisostatic adjustment in the region (e.g., Kingslake et al., this session). We propose that the grounding line of WAIS, at least on the RIS side, retreated in mid/late Holocene more than 300 km beyond its current position and then re-advanced to reach its modern geometry. This implies that the main body of WAIS was significantly smaller than today in mid/late Holocene and that the ice sheet is capable of

Influence of stochastic sea ice parametrization on climate and the role of atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interaction

PubMed Central

Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2014-01-01

The influence of a stochastic sea ice strength parametrization on the mean climate is investigated in a coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model. The results are compared with an uncoupled simulation with a prescribed atmosphere. It is found that the stochastic sea ice parametrization causes an effective weakening of the sea ice. In the uncoupled model this leads to an Arctic sea ice volume increase of about 10–20% after an accumulation period of approximately 20–30 years. In the coupled model, no such increase is found. Rather, the stochastic perturbations lead to a spatial redistribution of the Arctic sea ice thickness field. A mechanism involving a slightly negative atmospheric feedback is proposed that can explain the different responses in the coupled and uncoupled system. Changes in integrated Antarctic sea ice quantities caused by the stochastic parametrization are generally small, as memory is lost during the melting season because of an almost complete loss of sea ice. However, stochastic sea ice perturbations affect regional sea ice characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere, both in the uncoupled and coupled model. Remote impacts of the stochastic sea ice parametrization on the mean climate of non-polar regions were found to be small. PMID:24842027

Global Warming and Ice Ages: I. Prospects For Physics Based Modulation of Global Change

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Hyde, R.

1996-08-15

It has been suggested that large-scale climate changes, mostly due to atmospheric injection of greenhouse gases connected with fossil-fired energy production, should be forestalled by internationally-agreed reductions in, e.g., electricity generation. The potential economic impacts of such limitations are obviously large: greater than or equal to $10{sup 11}/year. We propose that for far smaller - less than 1% - the mean thermal effects of greenhouse gases may be obviated in any of several distinct ways, some of them novel. These suggestions are all based on scatterers that prevent a small fraction of solar radiation from reaching all or part of the Earth. We propose research directed to quite near-term realization of one or more of these inexpensive approaches to cancel the effects of the greenhouse gas injection. While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable. The proposals in this paper may lead to quite practical methods to reduce or eliminate all climate failures.

Relating sub-surface ice features to physiological stress in a climate sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps).

PubMed

Wilkening, Jennifer L; Ray, Chris; Varner, Johanna

2015-01-01

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, and ongoing research suggests loss of sub-surface ice as a mechanism. However, no studies have demonstrated physiological responses of pikas to sub-surface ice features. Here we present the first analysis of physiological stress in pikas living in and adjacent to habitats underlain by ice. Fresh fecal samples were collected non-invasively from two adjacent sites in the Rocky Mountains (one with sub-surface ice and one without) and analyzed for glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). We also measured sub-surface microclimates in each habitat. Results indicate lower GCM concentration in sites with sub-surface ice, suggesting that pikas are less stressed in favorable microclimates resulting from sub-surface ice features. GCM response was well predicted by habitat characteristics associated with sub-surface ice features, such as lower mean summer temperatures. These results suggest that pikas inhabiting areas without sub-surface ice features are experiencing higher levels of physiological stress and may be more susceptible to changing climates. Although post-deposition environmental effects can confound analyses based on fecal GCM, we found no evidence for such effects in this study. Sub-surface ice features are key to water cycling and storage and will likely represent an increasingly important component of water resources in a warming climate. Fecal samples collected from additional watersheds as part of current pika monitoring programs could be used to further characterize relationships between pika stress and sub-surface ice features.

Relating Sub-Surface Ice Features to Physiological Stress in a Climate Sensitive Mammal, the American Pika (Ochotona princeps)

PubMed Central

Wilkening, Jennifer L.; Ray, Chris; Varner, Johanna

2015-01-01

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is considered a sentinel species for detecting ecological effects of climate change. Pikas are declining within a large portion of their range, and ongoing research suggests loss of sub-surface ice as a mechanism. However, no studies have demonstrated physiological responses of pikas to sub-surface ice features. Here we present the first analysis of physiological stress in pikas living in and adjacent to habitats underlain by ice. Fresh fecal samples were collected non-invasively from two adjacent sites in the Rocky Mountains (one with sub-surface ice and one without) and analyzed for glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM). We also measured sub-surface microclimates in each habitat. Results indicate lower GCM concentration in sites with sub-surface ice, suggesting that pikas are less stressed in favorable microclimates resulting from sub-surface ice features. GCM response was well predicted by habitat characteristics associated with sub-surface ice features, such as lower mean summer temperatures. These results suggest that pikas inhabiting areas without sub-surface ice features are experiencing higher levels of physiological stress and may be more susceptible to changing climates. Although post-deposition environmental effects can confound analyses based on fecal GCM, we found no evidence for such effects in this study. Sub-surface ice features are key to water cycling and storage and will likely represent an increasingly important component of water resources in a warming climate. Fecal samples collected from additional watersheds as part of current pika monitoring programs could be used to further characterize relationships between pika stress and sub-surface ice features. PMID:25803587

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Neoproterozoic 'snowball Earth' simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model.

PubMed

Hyde, W T; Crowley, T J; Baum, S K; Peltier, W R

2000-05-25

Ice sheets may have reached the Equator in the late Proterozoic era (600-800 Myr ago), according to geological and palaeomagnetic studies, possibly resulting in a 'snowball Earth'. But this period was a critical time in the evolution of multicellular animals, posing the question of how early life survived under such environmental stress. Here we present computer simulations of this unusual climate stage with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. To simulate a snowball Earth, we use only a reduction in the solar constant compared to present-day conditions and we keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations near present levels. We find rapid transitions into and out of full glaciation that are consistent with the geological evidence. When we combine these results with a general circulation model, some of the simulations result in an equatorial belt of open water that may have provided a refugium for multicellular animals.

Radiocarbon ages of terrestrial gastropods extend duration of ice-free conditions at the Two Creeks forest bed, Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rech, Jason A.; Nekola, Jeffrey C.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

2012-01-01

Analysis of terrestrial gastropods that underlie the late Pleistocene Two Creeks forest bed (~ 13,800–13,500 cal yr BP) in eastern Wisconsin, USA provides evidence for a mixed tundra-taiga environment prior to formation of the taiga forest bed. Ten new AMS 14C analyses on terrestrial gastropod shells indicate the mixed tundra-taiga environment persisted from ~ 14,500 to 13,900 cal yr BP. The Twocreekan climatic substage, representing ice-free conditions on the shore of Lake Michigan, therefore began near the onset of peak warming conditions during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial and lasted ~ 1000 yr, nearly 600 yr longer than previously thought. These results provide important data for understanding the response of continental ice sheets to global climate forcing and demonstrate the potential of using terrestrial gastropod fossils for both environmental reconstruction and age control in late Quaternary sediments.

Investigating the Greenland ice sheet evolution under changing climate using a three-dimensional full-Stokes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2010-12-01

available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is prescribed as spatially constant and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. The project goal is to better assess the effects of dynamical changes of the Greenland ice sheet on sea level rise under global-warming conditions. Hence, the simulations have been conducted in order to investigate the ice sheet evolution using the climate forcing experiments defined in the SeaRISE project. For that purpose, four different experiments have been conducted, (i) constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 500 years holding the climate constant to its present state, (ii) constant climate forcing with increased basal lubrication, (iii) AR4 climate run forced by anomalies derived from results given in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) for the A1B emission scenario, (iv) AR4 climate run with increased basal lubrication.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth andmore » fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.« less

What About Sea Ice? People, animals, and climate change in the polar regions: An online resource for the International Polar Year and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renfrow, S.; Meier, W. N.; Wolfe, J.; Scott, D.; Leon, A.; Weaver, R.

2005-12-01

Decreasing Arctic sea ice has been one of the most noticeable changes on Earth over the past quarter-century. The years 2002 through 2005 have had much lower summer sea ice extents than the long-term (1979-2000). Reduced sea ice extent has a direct impact on Arctic wildlife and people, as well as ramifications for regional and global climate. Students, educators, and the general public want and need to have a better understanding of sea ice. Most of us are unfamiliar with sea ice: what it is, where it occurs, and how it affects global climate. The upcoming International Polar Year will provide an opportunity for the public to learn about sea ice. Here, we provide an overview of sea ice, the changes that the sea ice is undergoing, and information about the relation between sea ice and climate. The information presented here is condensed from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's new 'All About Sea Ice' Web site (http://www.nsidc.org/seaice/), a comprehensive resource of information for sea ice.

Effects of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age on the hydrology of Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markonis, Y.; Kossieris, P.; Lykou, A.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

2012-04-01

Medieval Warm Period (950 - 1250) and Little Ice Age (1450 - 1850) are the most recent periods that reflect the magnitude of natural climate variability. As their names suggest, the first one was characterized by higher temperatures and a generally moister climate, while the opposite happened during the second period. Although their existence is well documented for Northern Europe and North America, recent findings suggest strong evidence in lower latitudes as well. Here we analyze qualitatively the influence of these climatic fluctuations on the hydrological cycle all over the Mediterranean basin, highlighting the spatial characteristics of precipitation and runoff. We use both qualitative estimates from literature review in the field of paleoclimatology and statistical analysis of proxy data series. We investigate possible regional patterns and possible tele-connections with large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Siberian High, African Sahel Rainfall and Indian Monsoon.

Key roles of sea ice in inducing contrasting modes of glacial AMOC and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff-Tadano, S.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2017-12-01

Gaining a better understanding of glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is important to interpret the glacial climate changes such as the Heinrich event. Recent studies suggest that changes in sea ice over the North Atlantic largely affect the surface wind. Since changes in surface wind have a large impact on the AMOC, this implies a role of sea ice in modifying the AMOC though surface wind. However, the impact of sea ice on the surface winds and the impact of changes in the winds on the AMOC remain unclear. In this study, we first assess the impact of sea ice expansion on the winds. We then explore whether the changes in winds play a role in modifying the AMOC and climate. For this purpose, results from MIROC4m are analyzed (Kawamura et al. 2017). To clarify the impact of changes in sea ice on the surface wind, sensitivity experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the AGCM experiments, we modify the sea ice to extract the impact of sea ice on the winds. Partial decouple experiments are conducted with the coupled model MIROC4m, which we modify the surface winds to assess the impact of changes in the surface wind due to sea ice expansion on the AMOC. Results show that expansion of sea ice substantially weakens the surface wind over the northern North Atlantic. AGCM experiments show that a drastic decrease in surface temperature duo to a suppression of sensible heat flux plays a dominant role in weakening the surface winds through increasing the static stability of the air column near the surface. Partial decouple experiments with MIROC4m show that the weakening of the surface wind due to the expansion of sea ice plays an important role in maintaining the weak AMOC. Thus, these experiments show that the weakening of the surface winds due to sea ice expansion plays a role in stabilizing the AMOC.

Lake Ice Cover of Shallow Lakes and Climate Interactions in Arctic Regions (1950-2011): SAR Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surdu, C.; Duguay, C.; Brown, L.; Fernàndez-Prieto, D.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-12-01

Lake ice cover is highly correlated with climatic conditions and has, therefore, been demonstrated to be an essential indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have shown that the duration of the lake ice cover has decreased, mainly as a consequence of earlier thaw dates in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years, mainly as a feedback to increased winter and spring air temperature. In response to projected air temperature and winter precipitation changes by climate models until the end of the 21st century, the timing, duration, and thickness of ice cover on Arctic lakes are expected to be impacted. This, in turn, will likely alter the energy, water, and bio-geochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that fully freeze to the bottom at the time of maximum winter ice thickness since thinner ice covers are predicted to develop. Shallow thermokarst lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and of other similar Arctic regions, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice phenology and thickness over the last few decades but these have not yet been comprehensively documented. Analysis of a 20-year time series of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and numerical lake ice modeling were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific to the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA4) was used to drive the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1950-2011. In order to assess and integrate the SAR-derived observed changes into a longer historical context, and

Evidence for Pacific Climate Regime Shifts as Preserved in a Southeast Alaska Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, S. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Thompson, L. G.

2012-12-01

Climate modes emanating from the Pacific sector have far-reaching effects across the globe. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reflects anomalies in the sea surface temperature and pressure fields over the tropical Pacific, but climate implications from these anomalies extend to monsoon regions of Asia to North America and even Europe. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) explains sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific sector and influences the long-term behavior of the ENSO cycle as well as the storm track over North America expressed as the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). The impacts of both climate change and drastically reduced Arctic sea ice cover on these teleconnection patterns are poorly understood, and with little knowledge about their past behavior, predicting the changes in these climate modes is extremely difficult. An ice core from the col between Mt. Bona and Mt. Churchill in southeast Alaska provides an opportunity to examine the PDO prior to both the start of instrumental records and the more recent effects of anthropogenic climate change. The Bona-Churchill records of isotopic, dust, and chemical composition are compared to nearby meteorological station and 20th century reanalysis data to evaluate their strength as climate recorders. Climate indices such as the PDO and PNA, along with indices created to describe the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High, are incorporated into the analysis to determine if proxy relationships are altered under different climate regimes. Satellite records of sea ice extent within the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea, when compared to the Bona-Churchill data, show a distinct change in behavior in the mid-1990s possibly in response to the temporary negative shift in the PDO. This behavioral shift is explored and placed into a broader climate context to determine whether similar events have occurred in the past or if this shift is unique to a rapidly warming Arctic.

Samarium-Neodymium model age and Geochemical (Sr-Nd) signature of a bedrock inclusion from lake Vostok accretion ice.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delmonte, B.; Petit, J. R.; Michard, A.; Basile-Doelsch, I.; Lipenkov, V.

2003-04-01

We investigated properties of the basal ice from Vostok ice core as well as the sediment inclusions within the accreted ice. The Vostok ice core preserves climatic information for the last 420 kyrs down to 3310m depth, but below this depth the horizontal layers of the climatic record are disrupted by the glacier dynamics. From 3450 m to 3538 m depth thin bedrock particles, as glacial flour, are entrapped. Glacial flour is released in the northern area lake, where glacier mostly melts and contributes to sediment accumulation. In the southern area, close to Vostok station, the lake water freezes and the upstream glacial flour does not contribute to sedimentation. The accreted ice contains visible sediment inclusions down to 3608 m (accretion ice 1), while below this depth and likely down to the water interface (˜3750 m), the ice is clear (accretion ice 2). The fine inclusions (1-2mm in diameter) from Accretion Ice 1 mostly consist of fine clays and quartz aggregates and we suggest they are entrained into ice as the glacier floats over shallow depth bay then it grounds against a relief rise. Afterward the glacier freely floats over the deep lake before reaching Vostok, and accreted ice 2 is clean. Sm-Nd dating of one of two inclusions at 3570 m depth gives 1.88 (+/-0.13)Ga (DM model age), corresponding to 1.47 Ga (TCHUR), suggesting a Precambrian origin. Also the isotopic signature of such inclusion (87Sr/86Sr= 0.8232 and eNd= -16) and that of a second one (87Sr/86Sr= 0.7999 and eNd= -15) are coherent with the nature of an old continental shield. Sediments that may initially accumulate in the shallow bay prior the Antarctic glaciation, should have been eroded and exported out of the lake by the glacier movement, this assuming processes for ice accretion and for sediment entrapping operate since a long time. As the glacial flour from upstream does not contribute to sedimentation, sediments need to be renewed at the surface of the bedrock rising question about the way

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, David M.; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.

2001-01-01

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H.

1980-01-01

The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant.

Influence of the Little Ice Age on the biological structure of lakes in South West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, S.; Hogan, E. J.; Jones, V.; Anderson, N. J.; Simpson, G.

2013-12-01

Arctic lakes are considered to be particularly sensitive to environmental change, with biological remains in lake sediment records being interpreted as reflecting climate forcing. However the influence that differences in catchment properties and lake morphometries have on the sedimentary record is rarely considered. We investigated sediment cores from three lakes located close to the inland ice sheet margin in the Kangerlussuaq area of South West Greenland but within a few kilometres of one another. This regional replication allowed for direct comparisons of biological change in lakes exposed to identical environmental pressures (cooling, increased wind speeds) over the past c.2000 years. Sedimentary pigments were used as a proxy for whole-lake production and to investigate differences in phytoplankton community structure whilst fossil diatom assemblages were studied to determine differences in ecological responses during this time. We noted several major effects of the Little Ice Age cooling (LIA, c. 1400-1850AD). The organic content of sediments in all three lakes declined, and this effect was most pronounced in lakes closest to the inland ice sheet margin, which suggests that aeolian inputs derived from the glacial outwash plains (sandurs), and wind-scouring of the thin catchment soils by strong katabatic winds associated with the regional cooling might have both contributed to this sedimentary change. During the LIA total algal production (as indicated by chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments) was lower in all three lakes, most likely because of extended ice-cover and shorter growing seasons, and the ratio of planktonic: benthic diatom taxa increased, possibly because of lower light availability or fertilization from loess material. Despite this coherence in lake response to the LIA, diatom community composition changes in individual lakes differed, reflecting individual lake morphometry and catchment characteristics. These findings highlight the importance of

Vanishing river ice cover in the lower part of the Danube basin - signs of a changing climate.

PubMed

Ionita, M; Badaluta, C -A; Scholz, P; Chelcea, S

2018-05-21

Many of the world's largest rivers in the extra tropics are covered with ice during the cold season, and in the Northern Hemisphere approximately 60% of the rivers experience significant seasonal effects of river ice. Here we present an observational data set of the ice cover regime for the lower part of the Danube River which spans over the period 1837-2016, and its the longest one on record over this area. The results in this study emphasize the strong impact of climate change on the occurrence of ice regime especially in the second part of the 20 th century. The number of ice cover days has decreased considerably (~28days/century) mainly due to an increase in the winter mean temperature. In a long-term context, based on documentary evidences, we show that the ice cover occurrence rate was relatively small throughout the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), while the highest occurrence rates were found during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum periods. We conclude that the river ice regime can be used as a proxy for the winter temperature over the analyzed region and as an indicator of climate-change related impacts.

A review of sea ice proxy information from polar ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abram, Nerilie J.; Wolff, Eric W.; Curran, Mark A. J.

2013-11-01

Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate system. The lack of direct indications of past sea ice coverage, however, means that there is limited knowledge of the sensitivity and rate at which sea ice dynamics are involved in amplifying climate changes. As such, there is a need to develop new proxy records for reconstructing past sea ice conditions. Here we review the advances that have been made in using chemical tracers preserved in ice cores to determine past changes in sea ice cover around Antarctica. Ice core records of sea salt concentration show promise for revealing patterns of sea ice extent particularly over glacial-interglacial time scales. In the coldest climates, however, the sea salt signal appears to lose sensitivity and further work is required to determine how this proxy can be developed into a quantitative sea ice indicator. Methane sulphonic acid (MSA) in near-coastal ice cores has been used to reconstruct quantified changes and interannual variability in sea ice extent over shorter time scales spanning the last ˜160 years, and has potential to be extended to produce records of Antarctic sea ice changes throughout the Holocene. However the MSA ice core proxy also requires careful site assessment and interpretation alongside other palaeoclimate indicators to ensure reconstructions are not biased by non-sea ice factors, and we summarise some recommended strategies for the further development of sea ice histories from ice core MSA. For both proxies the limited information about the production and transfer of chemical markers from the sea ice zone to the Antarctic ice sheets remains an issue that requires further multidisciplinary study. Despite some exploratory and statistical work, the application of either proxy as an indicator of sea ice change in the Arctic also remains largely unknown. As information about these new ice core proxies builds, so too does the potential to develop a more comprehensive understanding of past changes in sea

Collaborative Project. Understanding the effects of tides and eddies on the ocean dynamics, sea ice cover and decadal/centennial climate prediction using the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hutchings, Jennifer; Joseph, Renu

2013-09-14

The goal of this project is to develop an eddy resolving ocean model (POP) with tides coupled to a sea ice model (CICE) within the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to investigate the importance of ocean tides and mesoscale eddies in arctic climate simulations and quantify biases associated with these processes and how their relative contribution may improve decadal to centennial arctic climate predictions. Ocean, sea ice and coupled arctic climate response to these small scale processes will be evaluated with regard to their influence on mass, momentum and property exchange between oceans, shelf-basin, ice-ocean, and ocean-atmosphere. The project willmore » facilitate the future routine inclusion of polar tides and eddies in Earth System Models when computing power allows. As such, the proposed research addresses the science in support of the BER’s Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Long Term Measure as it will improve the ocean and sea ice model components as well as the fully coupled RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) and it will make them more accurate and computationally efficient.« less

Future ice ages and the challenges related to final disposal of nuclear waste: The Greenland Ice Sheet Hydrology Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtinen, A.; Claesson-Liljedahl, L.; Näslund, J.-O.; Ruskeeniemi, T.

2009-04-01

A deep geological repository for nuclear waste is designed to keep radiotoxic material separated from mankind and the environment for several hundreds of thousands of years. Within this time perspective glacial conditions are expected in high latitudes/Canada and North Europe. Climate induced changes such as the growth of ice sheets and permafrost will influence and alter the ground surface and subsurface environment, which may impact repository safety. In order to understand how climate change, particularly cooling and glaciation, might affect a repository in the long term, the use of present-day analogues helps to reduce the uncertainties and support the assumptions made in safety assessments. There are major uncertainties concerning hydrological processes related to glacial conditions. The impact of glaciations on any planned repository is a key consideration when performing safety assessments as it is one of the strongest perturbations related to climate change in the long term. The main aspects that need to be further investigated include: 1) to what extent does the meltwater produced by an ice sheet penetrates into the bedrock; 2) what is the pressure situation under an ice sheet, driving ground water flow; 3) how much oxygenated water will reach repository depth; 4) to what depth does glacial meltwater penetrate into the bedrock ; 5)what chemical composition does such water has when and if it reaches repository depth; and 6) can taliks (unfrozen ground in a permafrost area) act as concentrated discharge points of deep groundwater potentially transporting radionuclides in case of repository failure? Field data is needed in order to achieve a better and integrated understanding of the problems discussed above. Thus, research in a natural analogue site in Greenland has been planned and initiated by the Finnish (Posiva), Swedish (SKB) and Canadian (NWMO) nuclear waste management companies. The Greenland ice sheet and the Kangerlussuaq area (west Greenland

Eastern Ross Ice Sheet Deglacial History inferred from the Roosevelt Island Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fudge, T. J.; Buizert, C.; Lee, J.; Waddington, E. D.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Conway, H.; Brook, E.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The Ross Ice Sheet drains large portions of both West and East Antarctica. Understanding the retreat of the Ross Ice Sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum is particularly difficult in the eastern Ross area where there is no exposed rock and the Ross Ice Shelf prevents extensive bathymetric mapping. Coastal domes, by preserving old ice, can be used to infer the establishment of grounded ice and be used to infer past ice thickness. Here we focus on Roosevelt Island, in the eastern Ross Sea, where the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution project recently completed an ice core to bedrock. Using ice-flow modeling constrained by the depth-age relationship and an independent estimate of accumulation rate from firn-densification measurements and modeling, we infer ice thickness histories for the LGM (20ka) to present. Preliminary results indicate thinning of 300m between 15ka and 12ka is required. This is similar to the amount and timing of thinning inferred at Siple Dome, in the central Ross Sea (Waddington et al., 2005; Price et al., 2007) and supports the presence of active ice streams throughout the Ross Ice Sheet advance during the LGM.

Iceberg severity off eastern North America: Its relationship to sea ice variability and climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marko, J.R.; Fissel, D.B.; Wadhams, P.

1994-09-01

Iceberg trajectory, deterioration (mass loss), and sea ice data are reviewed to identify the sources of observed interannual and seasonal variations in the numbers of icebergs passing south of 48[degrees]N off eastern North America. The results show the dominant role of sea ice in the observed variations. Important mechanisms involved include both seasonal modulation of the southerly iceberg flow by ice cover control of probabilities for entrapment and decay in shallow water, and the suppression of iceberg melt/deterioration rates by high concentrations of sea ice. The Labrador spring ice extent, shown to be the critical parameter in interannual iceberg numbermore » variability, was found to be either determined by or closely correlated with midwinter Davis Strait ice extents. Agreement obtained between observed year-to-year and seasonal number variations with computations based upon a simple iceberg dissipation model suggests that downstream iceberg numbers are relatively insensitive to iceberg production rates and to fluctuations in southerly iceberg fluxes in areas north of Baffin Island. Past variations in the Davis Strait ice index and annual ice extents are studied to identify trends and relationships between regional and larger-scale global climate parameters. It was found that, on decadal timescales in the post-1960 period of reasonable data quality, regional climate parameters have varied, roughly, out of phase with corresponding global and hemispheric changes. These observations are compared with expectations in terms of model results to evaluate current GCM-based capabilities for simulating recent regional behavior. 64 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.« less

The contribution of ice cover to sediment resuspension in a shallow temperate lake: possible effects of climate change on internal nutrient loading.

PubMed

Niemistö, Juha P; Horppila, Jukka

2007-01-01

The effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension and internal total P (Tot-P) loading was studied in the northern temperate Kirkkojärvi basin in Finland. The gross sedimentation and resuspension rates were estimated with sediment traps during ice-cover and ice-free periods. After ice break, the average gross sedimentation rate increased from 1.4 to 30.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1). Resuspension calculations showed clearly higher values after ice break as well. Under ice cover, resuspension ranged from 50 to 78% of the gross sedimentation while during the ice-free period it constituted from 87 to 97% of the gross sedimentation. Consequently, the average resuspension rate increased from 1.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) under ice-cover to 27.0 g dw m(-2) d(-1) after thaw, indicating the strong effect of ice cover on sediment resuspension. To estimate the potential effect of climate change on internal P loading caused by resuspension we compared the Tot-P loading calculations between the present climate and the climate with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration relative to the present day values (ice cover reduced from current 165 to 105 d). The annual load increased from 7.4 to 9.4 g m(-2). In conclusion, the annual internal Tot-P loading caused by resuspension will increase by 28% in the Kirkkojärvi basin if the 2xCO2 climate scenario comes true.

Simple energy balance model resolving the seasons and the continents - Application to the astronomical theory of the ice ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Short, D. A.; Mengel, J. G.

1983-01-01

An analysis is undertaken of the properties of a one-level seasonal energy balance climate model having explicit, two-dimensional land-sea geography, where land and sea surfaces are strictly distinguished by the local thermal inertia employed and transport is governed by a smooth, latitude-dependent diffusion mechanism. Solutions of the seasonal cycle for the cases of both ice feedback exclusion and inclusion yield good agreements with real data, using minimal turning of the adjustable parameters. Discontinuous icecap growth is noted for both a solar constant that is lower by a few percent and a change of orbital elements to favor cool Northern Hemisphere summers. This discontinuous sensitivity is discussed in the context of the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, and the associated branch structure is shown to be analogous to the 'small ice cap' instability of simpler models.

Luminescence dating of paleolake deltas and glacial deposits in Garwood Valley, Antarctica: Implications for climate, Ross ice sheet dynamics, and paleolake duration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levy, Joseph S.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Fountain, Andrew G.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-01-01

The formation of perched deltas and other lacustrine deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is widely considered to be evidence of valley-filling lakes dammed by the grounded Ross Sea ice sheet during the local Last Glacial Maximum, with lake drainage interpreted as a record of grounding line retreat. We used luminescence dating to determine the age of paleolake deltas and glacial tills in Garwood Valley, a coastal dry valley that opens to the Ross Sea. Luminescence ages are stratigraphically consistent with radiocarbon results from algal mats within the same delta deposits but suggest radiocarbon dates from lacustrine carbonates may overestimate deposit ages by thousands of years. Results suggest that late Holocene delta deposition into paleolake Howard in Garwood Valley persisted until ca. 3.5 ka. This is significantly younger than the date when grounded ice is thought to have retreated from the Ross Sea. Our evidence suggests that the local, stranded ice-cored till topography in Garwood Valley, rather than regional ice-sheet dynamics, may have controlled lake levels for some McMurdo Dry Valleys paleolakes. Age control from the supraglacial Ross Sea drift suggests grounding and up-valley advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet into Garwood valley during marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 (71–78 ka) and the local Last Glacial Maximum (9–10 ka). This work demonstrates the power of combining luminescence dating with existing radiocarbon data sets to improve understanding of the relationships among paleolake formation, glacial position, and stream discharge in response to climate change.

A common and optimized age scale for Antarctic ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrenin, F.; Veres, D.; Landais, A.; Bazin, L.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Toye Mahamadou Kele, H.; Wolff, E.; Martinerie, P.

2012-04-01

Dating ice cores is a complex problem because 1) there is a age shift between the gas bubbles and the surrounding ice 2) there are many different ice cores which can be synchronized with various proxies and 3) there are many methods to date the ice and the gas bubbles, each with advantages and drawbacks. These methods fall into the following categories: 1) Ice flow (for the ice) and firn densification modelling (for the gas bubbles); 2) Comparison of ice core proxies with insolation variations (so-called orbital tuning methods); 3) Comparison of ice core proxies with other well dated archives; 4) Identification of well-dated horizons, such as tephra layers or geomagnetic anomalies. Recently, an new dating tool has been developped (DATICE, Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010), to take into account all the different dating information into account and produce a common and optimal chronology for ice cores with estimated confidence intervals. In this talk we will review the different dating information for Antarctic ice cores and show how the DATICE tool can be applied.

The influence of the hydrologic cycle on the extent of sea ice with climatic implications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, Ken; Gosink, Joan

1991-01-01

The role was analyzed of the hydrologic cycle on the distribution of sea ice, and its influence on forcings and fluxes between the marine environment and the atmosphere. River discharge plays a significant role in degrading the sea ice before any melting occurs elsewhere along the coast. The influence is considered of river discharge on the albedo, thermal balance, and distribution of sea ice. Quantitative atmospheric-hydrologic models are being developed to describe these processes in the coastal zone. Input for the models will come from satellite images, hydrologic data, and field observations. The resulting analysis provides a basis for the study of the significance of the hydrologic cycle throughout the Arctic Basin and its influence on the regional climate as a result of possible climatic scenarios. The area offshore from the Mackenzie River delta was selected as the study area.

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

McCall Glacier record of Arctic climate change: Interpreting a northern Alaska ice core with regional water isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. S.; Nolan, M.; McConnell, J.; Sigl, M.; Cherry, J.; Young, J.; Welker, J. M.

2016-01-01

We explored modern precipitation and ice core isotope ratios to better understand both modern and paleo climate in the Arctic. Paleoclimate reconstructions require an understanding of how modern synoptic climate influences proxies used in those reconstructions, such as water isotopes. Therefore we measured periodic precipitation samples at Toolik Lake Field Station (Toolik) in the northern foothills of the Brooks Range in the Alaskan Arctic to determine δ18O and δ2H. We applied this multi-decadal local precipitation δ18O/temperature regression to ∼65 years of McCall Glacier (also in the Brooks Range) ice core isotope measurements and found an increase in reconstructed temperatures over the late-20th and early-21st centuries. We also show that the McCall Glacier δ18O isotope record is negatively correlated with the winter bidecadal North Pacific Index (NPI) climate oscillation. McCall Glacier deuterium excess (d-excess, δ2H - 8*δ18O) values display a bidecadal periodicity coherent with the NPI and suggest shifts from more southwestern Bering Sea moisture sources with less sea ice (lower d-excess values) to more northern Arctic Ocean moisture sources with more sea ice (higher d-excess values). Northern ice covered Arctic Ocean McCall Glacier moisture sources are associated with weak Aleutian Low (AL) circulation patterns and the southern moisture sources with strong AL patterns. Ice core d-excess values significantly decrease over the record, coincident with warmer temperatures and a significant reduction in Alaska sea ice concentration, which suggests that ice free northern ocean waters are increasingly serving as terrestrial precipitation moisture sources; a concept recently proposed by modeling studies and also present in Greenland ice core d-excess values during previous transitions to warm periods. This study also shows the efficacy and importance of using ice cores from Arctic valley glaciers in paleoclimate reconstructions.

Search for Remnant Water Ice from Past Glacial Climates on Mars: The Mars Odyssey Neutron Spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, W. C.; Prettyman, T. H.; Maurice, S.; Lawrence, D. J.; Pathare, A.; Milliken, R. E.; Travis, B. J.

2011-03-01

We find at least three likely target locations of presently existing deposits of buried "bulk" water ice that may be remnants of multiple episodes of dirty ice precipitation events at low to mid-martian latitudes driven by climate changes during the last 1 to 10 Ma.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

2011-12-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The relationship between Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Fedorov, A. V.

2017-12-01

A recent study (Sevellec, Fedorov, Liu 2017, Nature Climate Change) has suggested that Arctic sea ice decline can lead to a slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we build on this previous work and explore the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the AMOC in climate models. We find that the current Arctic sea ice decline can contribute about 40% to the AMOC weakening over the next 60 years. This effect is related to the warming and freshening of the upper ocean in the Arctic, and the subsequent spread of generated buoyancy anomalies downstream where they affect the North Atlantic deep convection sites and hence the AMOC on multi-decadal timescales. The weakening of the AMOC and its poleward heat transport, in turn, sustains the "Warming Hole" - a region in the North Atlantic with anomalously weak (or even negative) warming trends. We discuss the key factors that control this robust AMOC response to changes in Arctic sea ice.

Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging.

PubMed

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees' shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (M age = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals' perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work.

Lake Sediment Records as an Indicator of Holocene Fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru and Regional Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroup, J. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Beal, S. A.; Smith, C. A.; Baranes, H. E.

2012-12-01

The past fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, (QIC; 13°S, 70°W, 5200 m asl) located in the southeastern Peruvian Andes, provide a record of tropical climate since the last glacial-interglacial transition. A detailed surficial geomorphic record of past glacial extents developed over the last several decades (e.g. Mercer and Palacios 1977; Buffen et al. 2009; Kelly et al. 2012 accepted) demonstrates that QIC is a dynamic glacial system. These records show that the ice cap was larger than present and retreating by ~11,500 yr BP, and smaller than present between ~7,000 and ~4,600 yr BP. The most recent advance occurred during the late Holocene (Little Ice Age;LIA), dated with 10Be surface exposure ages (510±90 yrs (n = 8)) (Stroup et al. in prep.). This overrode earlier deposits obscuring a complete Holocene record; we aim to address the gaps in glacial chronology using the sedimentary record archived in lakes. We retrieved two sets cores (8 and 5 m-long) from Laguna Challpacocha (13.91°S, 70.86°W, 5040 m asl), a lake that currently receives meltwater from QIC. Four radiocarbon ages from the cores suggest a continuous record dating to at least ~10,500 cal. yr BP. Variations in magnetic susceptibility, percent organic and inorganic carbon, bulk density, grayscale and X-ray fluorescence chemistry indicate changes in the amount of clastic sediment deposition. We interpret clastic sediments to have been deposited from ice cap meltwater, thus indicating more extensive ice. Clastic sediments compose the top of the core from 4 to 30 cm depth, below there is a sharp transition to organic sediments radiocarbon dated to (500±30 and 550±20 cal. yr BP). The radiocarbon ages are similar to the 10Be dated (LIA) glacial position. At least three other clastic units exist in the core; dating to ~2600-4300, ~4800-7300 and older then ~10,500 cal. yr BP based on a linear age model with four radiocarbon dates. We obtained two, ~4 m long, cores from Laguna Yanacocha (13.95°S,70.87�

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

Response of Debris-Covered and Clean-Ice Glaciers to Climate Change from Observations and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupper, S.; Maurer, J. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Roe, G.; Huybers, K. M.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers form a significant percentage of the glacier area and volume in many mountainous regions of the world, and respond differently to climatic forcings as compared to clean-ice glaciers. In particular, debris-covered glaciers tend to downwaste with very little retreat, while clean-ice glaciers simultaneously thin and retreat. This difference has posed a significant challenge to quantifying glacier sensitivity to climate change, modeling glacier response to future climate change, and assessing the impacts of recent and future glacier changes on mountain environments and downstream populations. In this study, we evaluate observations of the geodetic mass balance and thinning profiles of 1000 glaciers across the Himalayas from 1975 to 2016. We use this large sampling of glacier changes over multiple decades to provide a robust statistical comparison of mass loss for clean-ice versus debris-covered glaciers over a period relevant to glacier dynamics. In addition, we force a glacier model with a series of climate change scenarios, and compare the modeled results to the observations. We essentially ask the question, "Are our theoretical expectations consistent with the observations?" Our observations show both clean-ice and debris-covered glaciers, regionally averaged, thinned in a similar pattern for the first 25-year observation period. For the more recent 15-year period, clean ice glaciers show significantly steepened thinning gradients across the surface, while debris-covered glaciers have continued to thin more uniformaly across the surface. Our preliminary model results generally agree with these observations, and suggest that both glacier types are expected to have a thinning phase followed by a retreat phase, but that the timing of the retreat phase is much later for debris-covered glaciers. Thus, these early results suggest these two glacier types are dynamically very similar, but are currently in different phases of response to recent

Organizational Climate for Successful Aging

PubMed Central

Zacher, Hannes; Yang, Jie

2016-01-01

Research on successful aging at work has neglected contextual resources such as organizational climate, which refers to employees’ shared perceptions of their work environment. We introduce the construct of organizational climate for successful aging (OCSA) and examine it as a buffer of the negative relationship between employee age and focus on opportunities (i.e., beliefs about future goals and possibilities at work). Moreover, we expected that focus on opportunities, in turn, positively predicts job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and motivation to continue working after official retirement age. Data came from 649 employees working in 120 companies (Mage = 44 years, SD = 13). We controlled for organizational tenure, psychological climate for successful aging (i.e., individuals’ perceptions), and psychological and organizational age discrimination climate. Results of multilevel analyses supported our hypotheses. Overall, our findings suggest that OCSA is an important contextual resource for successful aging at work. PMID:27458405

Reconciliation of Antarctic marine and terrestrial geologic records: climate and ice-sheet variability in the mid-Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, A. R. W.; DeConto, R.; Gasson, E.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Levy, R. H.; Naish, T.; Chorley, H.

2017-12-01

The mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum ( 17-15 Ma) serves as a possible analog for future Antarctic conditions, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for the next few decades. During the subsequent mid-Miocene Climatic Transition, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) developed from a more variable ice sheet to a continental, marine-terminating ice sheet resembling the modern configuration. Near-shore marine records from the Ross Sea (ANDRILL-2A; Levy et al., 2016) imply highly dynamic AIS behavior in the mid-Miocene. Reconstructed environmental conditions during this time period range from full glaciation of the area to a warm interglacial environment. Multiple AIS expansions during the mid-Miocene are interpreted from geophysical evidence including seismic surveys correlated to drill core data (Chow & Bart, 2003). These marine records are seemingly at odds with sedimentary and geomorphic studies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) that suggest the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was mostly invariable since the mid-Miocene (Sugden & Denton, 2004). Well-preserved landforms, observed by Marchant et al. (2013) and others, lack any indication of surface modification from glacial advance or wet cryoturbation, suggesting that hyper-arid cold-desert conditions have persisted in the MDVs since the mid-Miocene. This long-term landform stability in the MDVs implying a stable ice sheet is seemingly inconsistent with the highly dynamic AIS behavior reconstructed by Levy et al. (2016). Here, we use a Regional Climate Model (cf. Gasson et al., 2016) with a range of greenhouse gas concentrations, orbital configurations, ice sheet and shelf geometries, and sea surface conditions to reconcile the apparent dichotomy between marine and terrestrial records. Preliminary results reveal lapse-rate-corrected temperatures in the MDVs that generally remained below freezing in the austral summer, even under the warmest Miocene simulations (840 ppmv atmospheric CO2, `warm' austral

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

Life on thin ice: Insights from Uummannaq, Greenland for connecting climate science with Arctic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baztan, Juan; Cordier, Mateo; Huctin, Jean-Michel; Zhu, Zhiwei; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-09-01

What are the links between mainstream climate science and local community knowledge? This study takes the example of Greenland, considered one of the regions most impacted by climate change, and Inuit people, characterized as being highly adaptive to environmental change, to explore this question. The study is based on 10 years of anthropological participatory research in Uummannaq, Northwest Greenland, along with two fieldwork periods in October 2014 and April 2015, and a quantitative bibliometric analysis of the international literature on sea ice - a central subject of concern identified by Uummannaq community members during the fieldwork periods. Community members' perceptions of currently available scientific climate knowledge were also collected during the fieldwork. This was done to determine if community members consider available scientific knowledge salient and if it covers issues they consider relevant. The bibliometric analysis of the sea ice literature provided additional insight into the degree to which scientific knowledge about climate change provides information relevant for the community. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the missing connections between community worldviews, cultural values, livelihood needs, interests and climate science. Our results show that more scientific research efforts should consider local-level needs in order to produce local-scale knowledge that is more salient, credible and legitimate for communities experiencing climate change. In Uummannaq, as in many Inuit communities with similar conditions, more research should be done on sea ice thickness in winter and in areas through which local populations travel. This paper supports the growing evidence that whenever possible, climate change research should focus on environmental features that matter to communities, at temporal and spatial scales relevant to them, in order to foster community adaptations to change. We recommend such research be connected to and

Ice cores and SeaRISE: What we do (and don't) know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alley, Richard B.

1991-01-01

Ice core analyses are needed in SeaRISE to learn what the West Antarctic ice sheet and other marine ice sheets were like in the past, what climate changes led to their present states, and how they behave. The major results of interest to SeaRISE from previous ice core analyses in West Antarctic are that the end of the last ice age caused temperature and accumulation rate increases in inland regions, leading to ice sheet thickening followed by thinning to the present.

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates

Atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice derived from high-resolution IceBridge elevation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, A.; Tsamados, M.; Kurtz, N. T.

2016-02-01

Here we present a detailed analysis of atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice, using high resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from the NASA Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a novel feature-picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, spacing and orientation of unique surface features from 2009-2014 across both first-year and multiyear ice regimes. The topography results are used to explicitly calculate atmospheric form drag coefficients; utilizing existing form drag parameterizations. The atmospheric form drag coefficients show strong regional variability, mainly due to variability in ice type/age. The transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover therefore suggest a decrease in the atmospheric form drag coefficients over Arctic sea ice in recent decades. These results are also being used to calibrate a recent form drag parameterization scheme included in the sea ice model CICE, to improve the representation of form drag over Arctic sea ice in global climate models.

Species interactions and response time to climate change: ice-cover and terrestrial run-off shaping Arctic char and brown trout competitive asymmetries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finstad, A. G.; Palm Helland, I.; Jonsson, B.; Forseth, T.; Foldvik, A.; Hessen, D. O.; Hendrichsen, D. K.; Berg, O. K.; Ulvan, E.; Ugedal, O.

2011-12-01

There has been a growing recognition that single species responses to climate change often mainly are driven by interaction with other organisms and single species studies therefore not are sufficient to recognize and project ecological climate change impacts. Here, we study how performance, relative abundance and the distribution of two common Arctic and sub-Arctic freshwater fishes (brown trout and Arctic char) are driven by competitive interactions. The interactions are modified both by direct climatic effects on temperature and ice-cover, and indirectly through climate forcing of terrestrial vegetation pattern and associated carbon and nutrient run-off. We first use laboratory studies to show that Arctic char, which is the world's most northernmost distributed freshwater fish, outperform trout under low light levels and also have comparable higher growth efficiency. Corresponding to this, a combination of time series and time-for-space analyses show that ice-cover duration and carbon and nutrient load mediated by catchment vegetation properties strongly affected the outcome of the competition and likely drive the species distribution pattern through competitive exclusion. In brief, while shorter ice-cover period and decreased carbon load favored brown trout, increased ice-cover period and increased carbon load favored Arctic char. Length of ice-covered period and export of allochthonous material from catchments are major, but contrasting, climatic drivers of competitive interaction between these two freshwater lake top-predators. While projected climate change lead to decreased ice-cover, corresponding increase in forest and shrub cover amplify carbon and nutrient run-off. Although a likely outcome of future Arctic and sub-arctic climate scenarios are retractions of the Arctic char distribution area caused by competitive exclusion, the main drivers will act on different time scales. While ice-cover will change instantaneously with increasing temperature

Ramifications of a potential gap in passive microwave data for the long-term sea ice climate record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W.; Stewart, J. S.

2017-12-01

The time series of sea ice concentration and extent from passive microwave sensors is one of the longest satellite-derived climate records and the significant decline in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most iconic indicators of climate change. However, this continuous and consistent record is under threat due to the looming gap in passive microwave sensor coverage. The record started in late 1978 with the launch of the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and has continued with a series of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. The data from the different sensors are intercalibrated at the algorithm level by adjusting algorithm coefficients so that the output sea ice data is as consistent as possible between the older and the newer sensor. A key aspect in constructing the time series is to have at least two sensors operating simultaneously so that data from the older and newer sensor can be obtained from the same locations. However, with recent losses of the DMSP F19 and F20, the remaining SSMIS sensors are all well beyond their planned mission lifetime. This means that risk of failure is not small and is increasing with each day of operation. The newest passive microwave sensor, the JAXA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2), is a potential contributor to the time series (though it too is now beyond it's planned 5-year mission lifetime). However, AMSR2's larger antenna and higher spatial resolution presents a challenge in integrating its data with the rest of the sea ice record because the ice edge is quite sensitive to the sensor resolution, which substantially affects the total sea ice extent and area estimates. This will need to be adjusted for if AMSR2 is used to continue the time series. Here we will discuss efforts at NSIDC to integrate AMSR2 estimates into the sea ice climate record if needed. We

Effect of photochemical aging on the ice nucleation properties of diesel and wood burning particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, C.; Stetzer, O.; Tritscher, T.; Chirico, R.; Heringa, M. F.; Kanji, Z. A.; Weingartner, E.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Baltensperger, U.; Lohmann, U.

2012-06-01

A measurement campaign (IMBALANCE) was conducted in 2009 and aimed at characterizing the physical and chemical properties of freshly emitted and photochemically aged combustion particles emitted from a log wood burner and diesel vehicles: a EURO3 Opel Astra with a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) but no particle filter and a EURO2 Volkswagen Transporter TDI Syncro with no emission after-treatment. Ice nucleation experiments in the deposition and condensation freezing modes were conducted with the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PINC) at three nominal temperatures, -30 °C, -35 °C and -40 °C. Freshly emitted diesel particles showed ice formation only at -40 °C in the deposition mode at 137% relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) and 92% relative humidity with respect to water (RHw), and photochemical aging did not play a role in modifying their ice nucleation behavior. Only one diesel experiment where α-pinene was added, showed an ice nucleation enhancement after the aging at -35 °C. Wood burning particles also act as ice nuclei (IN) at -40 °C in the deposition mode at the same conditions as for diesel particles and photochemical aging did also not alter the ice formation properties of the wood burning particles. Unlike diesel particles, wood burning particles form ice via condensation freezing at -35 °C with no ice nucleation observed at -30 °C for wood burning particles. Photochemical aging did not affect the ice nucleation ability of the diesel and wood burning particles at the three different temperatures investigated but a broader range of temperatures below -30 °C need to be investigated in order to draw an overall conclusion on the effect of photochemical aging on deposition/condensation ice nucleation across the entire temperature range relevant to cold clouds.

Effect of photochemical ageing on the ice nucleation properties of diesel and wood burning particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, C.; Kanji, Z. A.; Stetzer, O.; Tritscher, T.; Chirico, R.; Heringa, M. F.; Weingartner, E.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Baltensperger, U.; Lohmann, U.

2013-01-01

A measurement campaign (IMBALANCE) conducted in 2009 was aimed at characterizing the physical and chemical properties of freshly emitted and photochemically aged combustion particles emitted from a log wood burner and diesel vehicles: a EURO3 Opel Astra with a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) but no particle filter and a EURO2 Volkswagen Transporter TDI Syncro without emission aftertreatment. Ice nucleation experiments in the deposition and condensation freezing modes were conducted with the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PINC) at three nominal temperatures, -30 °C, -35 °C and -40 °C. Freshly emitted diesel particles showed ice formation only at -40 °C in the deposition mode at 137% relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) and 92% relative humidity with respect to water (RHw), and photochemical ageing did not play a role in modifying their ice nucleation behaviour. Only one diesel experiment where α-pinene was added for the ageing process, showed an ice nucleation enhancement at -35 °C. Wood burning particles also act as ice nuclei (IN) at -40 °C in the deposition mode at the same conditions as for diesel particles and photochemical ageing also did not alter the ice formation properties of the wood burning particles. Unlike diesel particles, wood burning particles form ice via condensation freezing at -35 °C whereas no ice nucleation was observed at -30 °C. Photochemical ageing did not affect the ice nucleation ability of the diesel and wood burning particles at the three different temperatures investigated but a broader range of temperatures below -40 °C need to be investigated in order to draw an overall conclusion on the effect of photochemical ageing on deposition/condensation ice nucleation across the entire temperature range relevant to cold clouds.

Lake carbonate-δ18 records from the Yukon Territory, Canada: Little Ice Age moisture variability and patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Shapley, Mark D.

2011-01-01

A 1000-yr history of climate change in the central Yukon Territory, Canada, is inferred from sediment composition and isotope geochemistry from small, groundwater fed, Seven Mile Lake. Recent observations of lake-water δ18O, lake level, river discharge, and climate variations, suggest that changes in regional effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) are reflected by the lake’s hydrologic balance. The observations indicate that the lake is currently 18O-enriched by summer evaporation and that during years of increased precipitation, when groundwater inflow rates to the lake increase, lake-water δ18O values decrease. Past lake-water δ18O values are inferred from oxygen isotope ratios of fine-grained sedimentary endogenic carbonate. Variations in carbonate δ18O, supplemented by those in carbonate and organic δ13C, C/N ratios, and organic carbon, carbonate and biogenic silica accumulation rates, document changes in effective moisture at decadal time scales during the early Little Ice Age period to present. Results indicate that between ∼AD 1000 and 1600, effective moisture was higher than today. A shift to more arid climate conditions occurred after ∼AD 1650. The 19th and 20th centuries have been the driest of the past millennium. Temporal variations correspond with inferred shifts in summer evaporation from Marcella Lake δ18O, a similarly small, stratified, alkaline lake located ∼250 km to the southwest, suggesting that the combined reconstructions accurately document the regional paleoclimate of the east-central interior. Comparison with regional glacial activity suggests differing regional moisture patterns during early and late Little Ice Age advances.

Whither Arctic Sea Ice? - An Earth Exploration Toolbook chapter on the climate's canary in a coal mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W. N.; Youngman, E.; Dahlman, L.

2007-12-01

Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly. Since 2002, summer Arctic sea ice extents have been at record or near-record lows; winter extents have also showed a marked decline. Even in comparison to the previous five extreme low years, the 2007 summer melt season has been stunning, with dramatically less ice than the previous record in 2005. This is further evidence that the Arctic sea ice may have already passed a tipping point toward a state without ice during the summer by 2050 or before. Such a change will have profound impacts on climate as well as human and wildlife activities in the region. The "Whither Arctic Sea Ice?" Earth Exploration Toolbook chapter (http://serc.carleton.edu/eet/seaice/index.html) exposes students to satellite-derived sea ice data and allows them to process and interpret the data to "discover" these sea ice changes for themselves. A sample case study in Hudson Bay has been developed that relates the physical changes occurring on the sea ice to peoples and wildlife that depend on the ice for their livelihood. This approach provides a personal connection for students and allows them to relate to the impacts of the changes. Suggestions are made for further case studies that can be developed using the same data relating to topical events in the Arctic. The EET chapter exposes students to climate change, scientific data, statistical concepts, and image processing software providing an avenue for the communication of IPY data and science to teachers and students.

Extreme aridity and mild temperatures in the Middle East during the late Little Ice Age indicated by paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from the northern Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felis, T.; Ionita, M.; Rimbu, N.; Lohmann, G.; Kölling, M.

2016-12-01

Throughout the global deserts, annually resolved reconstructions of temperature that extend the short instrumental record are virtually absent, and proxy records of aridity are difficult to obtain. The Little Ice Age ( 1450-1850) is thought to have been characterized by generally cold conditions in many regions of the globe with little commonality regarding the hydroclimate. However, due to a lack of annually resolved natural archives in the Sahara and Arabian Desert, the precise characteristics of Middle Eastern climate during the Little Ice Age are unknown. Here we show, based on subseasonally resolved proxy records using corals from the northern Red Sea that the Middle East did not experience pronounced cooling during the late Little Ice Age (1751-1850). Instead, it was characterised by an even more arid climate than today. From our coral records and early instrumental data we conclude that Middle Eastern aridity resulted from a blocking-like atmospheric circulation over central Europe that weakened the moist Mediterranean westerlies and favoured the advection of dry continental air from Eurasia. We find that this extreme aridity terminated abruptly between 1850 and 1855 due to an atmospheric circulation change over the European-Middle East area at the end of the Little Ice Age with profound impacts on regional hydroclimate. Our results provide a hydroclimatic perspective on the resettlement of abandoned areas of the historical Fertile Crescent following the Little Ice Age. Furthermore, we speculate such an atmospheric blocking could have prevailed during other North Atlantic-European cold events of the Holocene epoch, and may explain the northern Mesopotamian aridification at 4,200 years ago that is thought to have led to the collapse of ancient civilizations.

Early Cretaceous ice rafting and climate zonation in Australia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frakes, L.A.; Alley, N.F.; Deynoux, M.

1995-07-01

Lower Cretaceous (Valanginian to Albian) strata of the southwestern Eromanga and Carpentaria basins of central and northern Australia, respectively, provide evidence of strongly seasonal climates at high paleolatitudes. These include dispersed clasts (lonestones) in fine sediments and pseudomorphs of calcite after ikaite (glendonites), the latter being known to form only at temperatures below about 7{degrees}C. Rafting is regarded as the transport mechanism for clasts up to boulder size (lonestones) enclosed within dark mudrocks; this interpretation rests on rare occurrences of penetration by clasts into substrate layers. Driftwood and large floating algae are eliminated as possible rafts because fossil wood ismore » found mainly concentrated in nearshore areas of the basins and large algal masses have not been observed. Rafting by icebergs is considered unlikely in view of the global lack of tillites and related glacial deposits of this age. Our interpretation is that seasonal ice, formed in winter along stream courses and strandlines, incorporated clasts which, during the melt season, were dropped into muddy sediments in both basins. Eromanga fine-sediment and concentrations of large clasts and associated sand lenses, both lying above local erosion surfaces. In the Carpentaria Basin, local dumping of sediment from raft surfaces resulted in accumulation of pods of small clasts. Three zones can be identified for the Early Cretaceous climate of eastern Australia: (1) a very cold southern region, at latitudes above about 72{degrees} S, characterized by meteoric waters possibly originating as Antarctic glacial meltwaters; (2) a zone of strongly seasonal climates, with freezing winters and warm summers, between about 72{degrees} and 53{degrees} S.Lat.; and (3) a mid-latitude zone (below about 50{degrees} S. Lat.), where freezing temperatures were not common. 60 refs., 7 figs.« less

Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles - variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, V. A.; Martin, T.; Behrens, L. K.; Latif, M.

2015-02-01

The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both

Chronological refinement of an ice core record at Upper Fremont Glacier in south central North America

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schuster, Paul F.; White, David E.; Naftz, David L.

2000-02-27

The potential to use ice cores from alpine glaciers in the midlatitudes to reconstruct paleoclimatic records has not been widely recognized. Although excellent paleoclimatic records exist for the polar regions, paleoclimatic ice core records are not common from midlatitude locations. An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s. Volcanic events (Krakatau and Tambora) identified from electrical conductivity measurements (ECM) and isotopic and chemical data from the Upper Fremont Glacier were reexamined to confirm and refine previous chronological estimates of the ice core. At a depth of 152 mmore » the refined age-depth profile shows good agreement (1736{+-}10 A.D.) with the {sup 14}C age date (1729{+-}95 A.D.). The {delta}{sup 18}O profile of the Upper Fremont Glacier (UFG) ice core indicates a change in climate known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). However, the sampling interval for {delta}{sup 18}O is sufficiently large (20 cm) such that it is difficult to pinpoint the LIA termination on the basis of {delta}{sup 18}O data alone. Other research has shown that changes in the {delta}{sup 18}O variance are generally coincident with changes in ECM variance. The ECM data set contains over 125,000 data points at a resolution of 1 data point per millimeter of ice core. A 999-point running average of the ECM data set and results from f tests indicates that the variance of the ECM data decreases significantly at about 108 m. At this depth, the age-depth profile predicts an age of 1845 A.D. Results indicate the termination of the LIA was abrupt with a major climatic shift to warmer temperatures around 1845 A.D. and continuing to present day. Prediction limits (error bars) calculated for the profile ages are {+-}10 years (90% confidence level). Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present-day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Coral-based estimates of tropical Pacific climate during the Little Ice Age: Intercolony variability and the need for replication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Khare, A.; Stone, C.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Lu, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-02-01

Massive surface corals offer continuous, high-resolution records of tropical climate variability, but reconstructing climate beyond the last century requires combining records from many different coral colonies [e.g. Cobb et al., 2003]. When combining coral records to build a reconstruction, however, one must grapple with the fact that corals growing on the same reef can yield Sr/Ca and δ18O records with significantly different mean values. These intercolony offsets equate to uncertainties of 1-3˚C when converted to SST [e.g. Felis et al., 2003; DeLong et al., 2011], significantly larger than the magnitude of decadal- to centennial-scale tropical climate variability during the last millennium [Emile-Geay et al., 2013]. Using a large suite of modern coral cores from Palmyra Atoll (6°N, 162°W), we quantify intercolony variability in Sr/Ca and δ18O records with respect to Sr/Ca-SST slopes and mean offsets. We document intercolony Sr/Ca offsets of ±0.09mmol/mol (1σ) or 1˚C, and δ18O offsets of ±0.04‰ or 0.2˚C. Sr/Ca-SST calibrations from six cores differ by ±5%, yielding temperatures ranging 26˚C to 29˚C when applied to a given coral Sr/Ca value. While individual corals are associated with large uncertainties, a composite of six modern cores offers a much reduced error bar of ±0.6˚C (1s). Applying these lessons to paired Sr/Ca and δ18O records from 3 Palmyra fossil corals from the 17th century, we find that central tropical Pacific (CTP) SST during the Little Ice Age (LIA) was 1.7±0.9˚C cooler than the 20th century. Seawater δ18O estimates derived from these fossil corals suggest drier conditions at Palmyra, consistent with lake sediment records from the Line Islands [Sachs et al., 2009]. References:Cobb, K. M., et al. (2003) Nature. 10.1038/nature01779DeLong, K. L., et al. (2011) Palaeogeo Palaeoclim Palaeoeco. 10.1016/J.Palaeo.2011.05.005Emile-Geay, J., et al. (2013) Journal of Climate. 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00511.1Felis, T., et al. (2003) Coral

Dominant covarying climate signals in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice influence during last three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrone, Dario; Fusco, Giannetta; Simmonds, Ian; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Budillon, Giorgio

2017-04-01

A composite dataset (comprising geopotential height, sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface winds, precipitation, cloud cover, surface air temperature, latent plus sensible heat fluxes , and sea ice concentration) has been investigated with the aim of revealing the dominant timescales of variability from 1982 to 2013. Three covarying climate signals associated with variations in the sea ice distribution around Antarctica have been detected through the application of the Multiple-Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). Features of the established patterns of variation over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics have been identified in each of these three climate signals in the form of coupled or individual oscillations. The climate patterns considered here are the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Pacific-South America (PSA) teleconnection, the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Zonal Wavenumber-3 (ZW3) mode. It is shown that most of the sea ice temporal variance is concentrated at the quasi-triennial scale resulting from the constructive superposition of the PSA and ZW3 patterns. In addition the combination of the SAM and SAO patterns is found to promote the interannual sea ice variations underlying a general change in the Southern Ocean atmospheric and oceanic circulations. These two modes of variability are also found consistent with the occurrence of the SAM+/PSA- or SAM-/PSA+ combinations, which could have favored the cooling of the sub-Antarctic and important changes in the Antarctic sea ice distribution since 2000.

Invited Article: SUBGLACIOR: An optical analyzer embedded in an Antarctic ice probe for exploring the past climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grilli, R.; Marrocco, N.; Desbois, T.

2014-11-15

This article describes the advances made in the development of a specific optical spectrometer based on the Optical Feedback-Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy technique for exploring past climate by probing the original composition of the atmosphere stored in the ice sheet of a glacier. Based on significant technological progresses and unconventional approaches, SUBGLACIOR will be a revolutionary tool for ice-core research: the optical spectrometer, directly embedded in the drilling probe, will provide in situ real-time measurements of deuterium isotopic variations (δ{sup 2}H ) and CH{sub 4} concentrations down to 3500 m of ice depth within a single Antarctic season. The instrumentmore » will provide simultaneous and real-time vertical profiles of these two key climate signatures in order to evaluate if a target site can offer ice cores as old as 1.5 million years by providing direct insight into past temperatures and climate cycles. The spectrometer has a noise equivalent absorption coefficient of 2.8 × 10{sup −10} cm{sup −1} Hz{sup −1/2}, corresponding to a detection limit of 0.2 ppbv for CH{sub 4} and a precision of 0.2‰ on the δ{sup 2}H of H{sub 2}O within 1 min acquisition time.« less

The effect of sudden ice sheet melt on ocean circulation and surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Wickert, A. D.; Valdes, P. J.; Burke, A.

2017-12-01

Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea-level rise and widespread climate change. Around 14.6 thousand years ago, global mean sea level rose by 15 m in less than 350 years during an event known as Meltwater Pulse 1a. Ice sheet modelling and sea-level fingerprinting has suggested that approximately half of this 50 mm yr-1 sea level rise may have come from a North American ice Saddle Collapse that drained into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. However, dating uncertainties make it difficult to determine the sequence of events and their drivers, leaving many fundamental questions. For example, was melting from the northern ice sheets responsible for the Older-Dryas or other global-scale cooling events, or did a contribution from Antarctica counteract the climatic effects? What was the role of the abrupt Bølling Warming? And how were all these signals linked to changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation?To address these questions, we examined the effect of the North American ice Saddle Collapse using a high resolution network drainage model coupled to an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation General Circulation Model. Here, we present the quantitative routing estimates of the consequent meltwater discharge and its impact on climate. We also tested a suite of more idealised meltwater forcing scenarios to examine the global influence of Arctic versus Antarctic ice melt. The results show that 50% of the Saddle Collapse meltwater pulse was routed via the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean, and 50% was discharged directly into the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. This meltwater flux, equivalent to a total of 7.3 m of sea-level rise, caused a strong (6 Sv) weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1-5 °C. The greatest cooling is in the Arctic (5-10 °C in the winter), but there is also significant winter warming over eastern North America (1-3 °C). We propose that this robust submillennial mechanism was

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Tracing the effects of the Little Ice Age in the tropical lowlands of eastern Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

del Socorro Lozano-García, Ma.; Caballero, Margarita; Ortega, Beatriz; Rodríguez, Alejandro; Sosa, Susana

2007-01-01

The causes of late-Holocene centennial to millennial scale climatic variability and the impact that such variability had on tropical ecosystems are still poorly understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, multiproxy record from lowland eastern Mesoamerica, studied to reconstruct climate and vegetation history during the last 2,000 years, in particular to evaluate the response of tropical vegetation to the cooling event of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Our data provide evidence that the densest tropical forest cover and the deepest lake of the last two millennia were coeval with the LIA, with two deep lake phases that follow the Spörer and Maunder minima in solar activity. The high tropical pollen accumulation rates limit LIA's winter cooling to a maximum of 2°C. Tropical vegetation expansion during the LIA is best explained by a reduction in the extent of the dry season as a consequence of increased meridional flow leading to higher winter precipitation. These results highlight the importance of seasonal responses to climatic variability, a factor that could be of relevance when evaluating the impact of recent climate change. PMID:17913875

Ice Complex permafrost of MIS5 age in the Dmitry Laptev Strait coastal region (East Siberian Arctic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterich, Sebastian; Tumskoy, Vladimir; Rudaya, Natalia; Kuznetsov, Vladislav; Maksimov, Fedor; Opel, Thomas; Meyer, Hanno; Andreev, Andrei A.; Schirrmeister, Lutz

2016-09-01

Ice Complex deposits (locally known as the Buchchagy Ice Complex) are exposed at both coasts of the East Siberian Dmitry Laptev Strait and preserved below the Yedoma Ice Complex that formed during MIS3 and MIS2 (Marine Isotope Stage) and lateglacial-Holocene thermokarst deposits (MIS1). Radioisotope disequilibria (230Th/U) of peaty horizons date the Buchchagy Ice Complex deposition to 126 + 16/-13 kyr and 117 + 19/-14 kyr until 98 ± 5 kyr and 89 ± 5 kyr. The deposit is characterised by poorly-sorted medium-to-coarse silts with cryogenic structures of horizontal ice bands, lens-like, and lens-like reticulated segregation ice. Two peaty horizons within the Buchchagy Ice Complex and syngenetic ice wedges (2-4 m wide, up to 10 m high) are striking. The isotopic composition (δ18O, δD) of Buchchagy ice-wedge ice indicates winter conditions colder than during the MIS3 interstadial and warmer than during MIS2 stadial, and similar atmospheric winter moisture sources as during the MIS2 stadial. Buchchagy Ice Complex pollen spectra reveal tundra-steppe vegetation and harsher summer conditions than during the MIS3 interstadial and rather similar vegetation as during the MIS2 stadial. Short-term climatic variability during MIS5 is reflected in the record. Even though the regional chronostratigraphic relationship of the Buchchagy Ice Complex to the Last Interglacial remains unclear because numerical dating is widely lacking, the present study indicates permafrost (Ice Complex) formation during MIS5 sensu lato, and its preservation afterwards. Palaeoenvironmental insights into past climate and the periglacial landscape dynamics of arctic lowlands in eastern Siberia are deduced from the record.

POTENTIAL CLIMATE WARMING EFFECTS ON ICE COVERS OF SMALL LAKES IN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (R824801)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

To simulate effects of projected climate change on ice covers of small lakes in the northern contiguous U.S., a process-based simulation model is applied. This winter ice/snow cover model is associated with a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water tem...

Paraglacial dynamics in Little Ice Age glaciated environments in the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliva, Marc; Serrano, Enrique; Ruiz-Fernández, Jesús; Gómez-Ortiz, Antonio; Palacios, David

2017-04-01

Three Iberian mountain ranges encompassed glaciers during the Little Ice Age (LIA): the Pyrenees, Cantabrian Mountains and Sierra Nevada. The gradual warming trend initiated during the second half of the XIX century promoted the progressive shrinking of these glaciers, which completely melted during the first half of the 20th century in the Cantabrian Mountains and Sierra Nevada and reduced by 80% of their LIA extent in the Pyrenees. Currently, the formerly glaciated environments are located within the periglacial belt and still present to a major or lesser degree signs of paraglacial activity. LIA moraines are devoid of vegetation and composed of highly unstable sediments that are being intensely mobilized by slope processes. Inside the moraines, different landforms and processes generated following LIA glacial retreat have generated: (i) buried ice trapped within rock debris supplied from the cirque walls, which has also generated rock glaciers and protalus lobes; (ii) semi-permanent snow fields distributed above the ice-patches remnants of the LIA glaciers, and (iii) small periglacial features such as frost mounds, sorted circles and solifluction landforms generated by processes such as solifluction and cryoturbation. Present-day morphodynamics is mostly related to seasonal frost conditions, though patches of permafrost have formed in some areas in contact with the buried ice. This 'geomorphic permafrost' is undergoing a process of degradation since it is not balanced with present-day climate conditions. This is reflected in the occurrence of multiple collapses and subsidences of the debris cover where the frozen bodies sit. In the highest areas of the Pyrenees there is a permafrost belt next to the small glaciated environments in the highest massifs. Finally, we propose a model for paraglacial activity in Iberian mountain ranges and compare it to other mid-latitude mountain environments as well as to other past deglaciation stages.

Cordilleran Ice Sheet mass loss preceded climate reversals near the Pleistocene Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Goehring, B. M.; Osborn, G.; Margold, M.; Ward, B.; Bond, J.; Clarke, G. K. C.; Clague, J. J.; Lakeman, T.; Koch, J.; Caffee, M. W.; Gosse, J.; Stroeven, A. P.; Seguinot, J.; Heyman, J.

2017-11-01

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) once covered an area comparable to that of Greenland. Previous geologic evidence and numerical models indicate that the ice sheet covered much of westernmost Canada as late as 12.5 thousand years ago (ka). New data indicate that substantial areas throughout westernmost Canada were ice free prior to 12.5 ka and some as early as 14.0 ka, with implications for climate dynamics and the timing of meltwater discharge to the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Early Bølling-Allerød warmth halved the mass of the CIS in as little as 500 years, causing 2.5 to 3.0 meters of sea-level rise. Dozens of cirque and valley glaciers, along with the southern margin of the CIS, advanced into recently deglaciated regions during the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas.

Ice age True Polar Wander: raising debates and new analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabadini, Roberto; Cambiotti, Gabriele; Ricard, Yanick

2010-05-01

Issues related to long time scale instability in the Earth's rotation, named True Polar Wander (TPW), have continuously been debated, after the pioneering works of the sixties. Since Maxwell Earth models with elastic or high viscosity viscoelastic lithospheres predict different ice-age TPW in the lower mantle viscosity range 1021 - 1022 Pa s, it has been recently suggested that the observed fluid Love number should be used to describe the initial equatorial bulge rather than the tidal fluid limit resulting from the viscoelastic modelling itself. We show that different ice-age TPW predictions have to be expected due to the dependence of TPW on the Earth's initial state, characterized by a larger and stress-free equatorial bulge for the viscoelastic lithosphere, compared to the elastic one, and that there is no shortcomings or errors in the traditional approach based on the use of tidal Love number from the model. The use of the observed fluid Love number represents in fact a simplified attempt to couple the effects on TPW from mantle convection and glacial forcing, by including the non-hydrostatic flattening due to mantle convection but not its driving part. This partial coupling freezes in space the non-hydrostatic contribution due to mantle convection, thus damping the present-day ice-age TPW and forcing the axis of instantaneous rotation to come back to its initial position when ice ages started. In this perspective, we discuss the implication of self-consistent convection calculations of the non-hydrostatic contribution and its impact on the long-term Earth's rotation stability during ice-age. We develop a full compressible model, based on the numerical integration in the radial variable of the momentum and Poisson equations and on the contour integration in the Laplace domain, which allows us to deal with the non-modal contribution from continuous radial rheological variations. We quantify the effects of the compressible rheology, compared to the widely used

The effect of host star spectral energy distribution and ice-albedo feedback on the climate of extrasolar planets.

PubMed

Shields, Aomawa L; Meadows, Victoria S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T; Joshi, Manoj M; Robinson, Tyler D

2013-08-01

Planetary climate can be affected by the interaction of the host star spectral energy distribution with the wavelength-dependent reflectivity of ice and snow. In this study, we explored this effect with a one-dimensional (1-D), line-by-line, radiative transfer model to calculate broadband planetary albedos as input to a seasonally varying, 1-D energy balance climate model. A three-dimensional (3-D) general circulation model was also used to explore the atmosphere's response to changes in incoming stellar radiation, or instellation, and surface albedo. Using this hierarchy of models, we simulated planets covered by ocean, land, and water-ice of varying grain size, with incident radiation from stars of different spectral types. Terrestrial planets orbiting stars with higher near-UV radiation exhibited a stronger ice-albedo feedback. We found that ice extent was much greater on a planet orbiting an F-dwarf star than on a planet orbiting a G-dwarf star at an equivalent flux distance, and that ice-covered conditions occurred on an F-dwarf planet with only a 2% reduction in instellation relative to the present instellation on Earth, assuming fixed CO(2) (present atmospheric level on Earth). A similar planet orbiting the Sun at an equivalent flux distance required an 8% reduction in instellation, while a planet orbiting an M-dwarf star required an additional 19% reduction in instellation to become ice-covered, equivalent to 73% of the modern solar constant. The reduction in instellation must be larger for planets orbiting cooler stars due in large part to the stronger absorption of longer-wavelength radiation by icy surfaces on these planets in addition to stronger absorption by water vapor and CO(2) in their atmospheres, which provides increased downwelling longwave radiation. Lowering the IR and visible-band surface ice and snow albedos for an M-dwarf planet increased the planet's climate stability against changes in instellation and slowed the descent into global ice

Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change

PubMed Central

Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Weber, Christine

2014-01-01

Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns. PMID:25505542

Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Lind, Lovisa; Nilsson, Christer; Weber, Christine

2014-11-01

Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species-rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in-stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice-free to ice-rich reaches. The ice-rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf-shrub cover and led to colonization of a species-rich forb-dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor-ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in-stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice-induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice-induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in-stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns.

Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Kamiya, T.; Schwede, S.; Willard, D.A.

2003-01-01

We present paleoclimate evidence for rapid (< 100 years) shifts of ~2-4oC in Chesapeake Bay (CB) temperature ~2100, 1600, 950, 650, 400 and 150 years before present (years BP) reconstructed from magnesium/calcium (Mg/Ca) paleothermometry. These include large temperature excursions during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1900 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1300 AD) possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Evidence is presented for a long period of sustained regional and North Atlantic-wide warmth with low-amplitude temperature variability between ~450 and 1000 AD. In addition to centennial-scale temperature shifts, the existence of numerous temperature maxima between 2200 and 250 years BP (average ~70 years) suggests that multi-decadal processes typical of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are an inherent feature of late Holocene climate. However, late 19th and 20th century temperature extremes in Chesapeake Bay associated with NAO climate variability exceeded those of the prior 2000 years, including the interval 450-1000 AD, by 2-3oC, suggesting anomalous recent behavior of the climate system.