Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Laidre, Kristin L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Amstrup, Steven C; Atwood, Todd C; Lunn, Nicholas J; Obbard, Martyn; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W; Wiig, Øystein

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year -1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. © 2016 The Authors.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Amstrup, Steven C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Lunn, Nicholas J.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Stern, Harry; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Wiig, Øystein

2016-01-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

The role of declining summer sea ice extent in increasing Arctic winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamman, J.; Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

In the past three decades, the Arctic has experienced large declines in summer sea ice cover, permafrost extent, and spring snow cover, and increases in winter precipitation. This study explores the relationship between declining Arctic sea ice extent (IE) and winter precipitation (WP) across the Arctic land masses. The first part of this presentation presents the observed relationship between IE and WP. Using satellite estimates of IE and WP data based on a combination of in-situ observations and global reanalyses, we show that WP is negatively correlated with summer IE and that this relationship is strongest before the year 2000. After 2000, around the time IE minima began to decline most rapidly, the relationship between IE and WP degenerates. This indicates that other processes are driving changes in IE and WP. We hypothesize that positive anomalies in poleward moisture transport have historically driven anomalously low IE and high WP, and that since the significant decline in IE, moisture divergence from the central Arctic has been a larger contributor to WP over land. To better understand the physical mechanisms driving the observed changes in the Arctic climate system and the sensitivity of the Arctic climate system to declining sea ice, we have used the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to simulate two distinct sea ice climates. The first climate represents normal IE, while the second includes reduced summer IE. The second portion of this presentation analyzes these two RASM simulations, in conjunction with our observation-based analysis, to understand the coupled relationship between poleward moisture transport, IE, evaporation from the Arctic Ocean, and precipitation. We will present the RASM-simulated Arctic water budget and demonstrate the role of IE in driving WP anomalies. Finally, a spatial correlation analysis identifies characteristic patterns in IE, ocean evaporation, and polar cap convergence that contribute to anomalies in WP.

Impacts of Declining Arctic Sea Ice: An International Challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, M.

2008-12-01

As reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in late August of 2008, Arctic sea ice extent had already fallen to its second lowest level since regular monitoring began by satellite. As of this writing, we were closing in on the record minimum set in September of 2007. Summers may be free of sea ice by the year 2030. Recognition is growing that ice loss will have environmental impacts that may extend well beyond the Arctic. The Arctic Ocean will in turn become more accessible, not just to tourism and commercial shipping, but to exploitation of oil wealth at the bottom of the ocean. In recognition of growing accessibility and oil operations, the United States Coast Guard set up temporary bases this summer at Barrow and Prudhoe Bay, AK, from which they conducted operations to test their readiness and capabilities, such as for search and rescue. The Canadians have been busy showing a strong Arctic presence. In August, a German crew traversed the Northwest Passage from east to west in one of their icebreakers, the Polarstern. What are the major national and international research efforts focusing on the multifaceted problem of declining sea ice? What are the areas of intersection, and what is the state of collaboration? How could national and international collaboration be improved? This talk will review some of these issues.

Changing Arctic ecosystems: sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, and benefits for geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Whalen, Mary E.; Pearce, John M.

2014-01-01

Through the Changing Arctic Ecosystems (CAE) initiative, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strives to inform resource management decisions for Arctic Alaska by providing scientific information on current and future ecosystem response to a warming climate. A key area for the USGS CAE initiative has been the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. This region has experienced a warming trend over the past 30 years, leading to reductions in sea ice and thawing of permafrost. Loss of sea ice has increased ocean wave action, leading to erosion and salt water inundation of coastal habitats. Saltwater tolerant plants are now thriving in these areas and this appears to be a positive outcome for geese in the Arctic. This finding is contrary to the deleterious effects that declining sea ice is having on habitats of ice-dependent animals, such as polar bear and walrus.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fei; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Wang, Huijun; Gao, Yongqi; He, Shengping

2018-03-01

The Arctic sea ice cover has been rapidly declining in the last two decades, concurrent with a shift in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to its warm phase around 1996/1997. Here we use both observations and model simulations to investigate the modulation of the atmospheric impacts of the decreased sea ice cover in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (AASIC) by the AMO. We find that the AASIC loss during a cold AMO phase induces increased Ural blocking activity, a southeastward-extended snowpack, and a cold continent anomaly over Eurasia in December through northerly cold air advection and moisture transport from the Arctic. The increased Ural blocking activity and more extended Eurasian snowpack strengthen the upward propagation of planetary waves over the Siberian-Pacific sector in the lower stratosphere and hence lead to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase at the surface in February. However, corresponding to the AASIC loss during a warm AMO phase, one finds more widespread warming over the Arctic and a reduced snowpack over Northern Eurasia in December. The stratosphere-troposphere coupling is suppressed in early winter and no negative AO anomaly is found in February. We suggest that the cold AMO phase is important to regulate the atmospheric response to AASIC decline, and our study provides insight to the ongoing debate on the connection between the Arctic sea ice and the AO.

Assessing the potential impacts of declining Arctic sea ice cover on the photochemical degradation of dissolved organic matter in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logvinova, Christie L.; Frey, Karen E.; Mann, Paul J.; Stubbins, Aron; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-11-01

throughout Arctic Ocean surface waters. As Arctic temperatures continue to warm and summer sea ice further declines, examination of the resulting enhanced photodegradation processes and their impacts on the interplay between primary production, carbon cycling, and surface ocean heating processes will be paramount.

Canadian Arctic sea ice reconstructed from bromine in the Greenland NEEM ice core.

PubMed

Spolaor, Andrea; Vallelonga, Paul; Turetta, Clara; Maffezzoli, Niccolò; Cozzi, Giulio; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Cuevas, Carlos A; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

2016-09-21

Reconstructing the past variability of Arctic sea ice provides an essential context for recent multi-year sea ice decline, although few quantitative reconstructions cover the Holocene period prior to the earliest historical records 1,200 years ago. Photochemical recycling of bromine is observed over first-year, or seasonal, sea ice in so-called "bromine explosions" and we employ a 1-D chemistry transport model to quantify processes of bromine enrichment over first-year sea ice and depositional transport over multi-year sea ice and land ice. We report bromine enrichment in the Northwest Greenland Eemian NEEM ice core since the end of the Eemian interglacial 120,000 years ago, finding the maximum extension of first-year sea ice occurred approximately 9,000 years ago during the Holocene climate optimum, when Greenland temperatures were 2 to 3 °C above present values. First-year sea ice extent was lowest during the glacial stadials suggesting complete coverage of the Arctic Ocean by multi-year sea ice. These findings demonstrate a clear relationship between temperature and first-year sea ice extent in the Arctic and suggest multi-year sea ice will continue to decline as polar amplification drives Arctic temperatures beyond the 2 °C global average warming target of the recent COP21 Paris climate agreement.

Polar bears and sea ice habitat change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

2017-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is an obligate apex predator of Arctic sea ice and as such can be affected by climate warming-induced changes in the extent and composition of pack ice and its impacts on their seal prey. Sea ice declines have negatively impacted some polar bear subpopulations through reduced energy input because of loss of hunting habitats, higher energy costs due to greater ice drift, ice fracturing and open water, and ultimately greater challenges to recruit young. Projections made from the output of global climate models suggest that polar bears in peripheral Arctic and sub-Arctic seas will be reduced in numbers or become extirpated by the end of the twenty-first century if the rate of climate warming continues on its present trajectory. The same projections also suggest that polar bears may persist in the high-latitude Arctic where heavy multiyear sea ice that has been typical in that region is being replaced by thinner annual ice. Underlying physical and biological oceanography provides clues as to why polar bear in some regions are negatively impacted, while bears in other regions have shown no apparent changes. However, continued declines in sea ice will eventually challenge the survival of polar bears and efforts to conserve them in all regions of the Arctic.

High Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis System for Polar Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmayr, Remi; Azuma, Kumiko; Yamada, Hironobu; Kjær, Helle Astrid; Vallelonga, Paul; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Takata, Morimasa

2014-05-01

In the last decades, Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) technology for ice core analyses has been developed to reconstruct the past changes of the climate system 1), 2). Compared with traditional analyses of discrete samples, a CFA system offers much faster and higher depth resolution analyses. It also generates a decontaminated sample stream without time-consuming sample processing procedure by using the inner area of an ice-core sample.. The CFA system that we have been developing is currently able to continuously measure stable water isotopes 3) and electrolytic conductivity, as well as to collect discrete samples for the both inner and outer areas with variable depth resolutions. Chemistry analyses4) and methane-gas analysis 5) are planned to be added using the continuous water stream system 5). In order to optimize the resolution of the current system with minimal sample volumes necessary for different analyses, our CFA system typically melts an ice core at 1.6 cm/min. Instead of using a wire position encoder with typical 1mm positioning resolution 6), we decided to use a high-accuracy CCD Laser displacement sensor (LKG-G505, Keyence). At the 1.6 cm/min melt rate, the positioning resolution was increased to 0.27mm. Also, the mixing volume that occurs in our open split debubbler is regulated using its weight. The overflow pumping rate is smoothly PID controlled to maintain the weight as low as possible, while keeping a safety buffer of water to avoid air bubbles downstream. To evaluate the system's depth-resolution, we will present the preliminary data of electrolytic conductivity obtained by melting 12 bags of the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. The samples correspond to different climate intervals (Greenland Stadial 21, 22, Greenland Stadial 5, Greenland Interstadial 5, Greenland Interstadial 7, Greenland Stadial 8). We will present results for the Greenland Stadial -8, whose depths and ages are between 1723.7 and 1724.8 meters, and 35.520 to

Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Guo, Xiao Jing; De Jong, Rogier; Kinnard, Christophe; Bernier, Pierre; Raulier, Frédéric

2014-03-01

The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late-20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada

The influence of regional Arctic sea-ice decline on stratospheric and tropospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Christine; Bracegirdle, Thomas; Shuckburgh, Emily; Haynes, Peter

2016-04-01

Arctic sea-ice extent has rapidly declined over the past few decades, and most climate models project a continuation of this trend during the 21st century in response to greenhouse gas forcing. A number of recent studies have shown that this sea-ice loss induces vertically propagating Rossby waves, which weaken the stratospheric polar vortex and increase the frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). SSWs have been shown to increase the probability of a negative NAO in the following weeks, thereby driving anomalous weather conditions over Europe and other mid-latitude regions. In contrast, other studies have shown that Arctic sea-ice loss strengthens the polar vortex, increasing the probability of a positive NAO. Sun et al. (2015) suggest these conflicting results may be due to the region of sea-ice loss considered. They find that if only regions within the Arctic Circle are considered in sea-ice projections, the polar vortex weakens; if only regions outwith the Arctic Circle are considered, the polar vortex strengthens. This is because the anomalous Rossby waves forced in the former/latter scenario constructively/destructively interfere with climatological Rossby waves, thus enhancing/suppressing upward wave propagation. In this study, we investigate whether Sun et al.'s results are robust to a different model. We also divide the regions of sea-ice loss they considered into further sub-regions, in order to examine the regional differences in more detail. We do this by using the intermediate complexity climate model, IGCM4, which has a well resolved stratosphere and does a good job of representing stratospheric processes. Several simulations are run in atmosphere only mode, where one is a control experiment and the others are perturbation experiments. In the control run annually repeating historical mean surface conditions are imposed at the lower boundary, whereas in each perturbation run the model is forced by SST perturbations imposed in a specific

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

Investigating ice shelf mass loss processes from continuous satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fricker, H. A.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet continually gains mass through snowfall over its large area and, to remain approximately in equilibrium, it sheds most of this excess mass through two processes, basal melting and iceberg calving, that both occur in the floating ice shelves surrounding the continent. Small amounts of mass are also lost by surface melting, which occurs on many ice shelves every summer to varying degrees, and has been linked to ice-shelf collapse via hydrofracture on ice shelves that have been pre-weakened. Ice shelves provide mechanical support to `buttress' seaward flow of grounded ice, so that ice-shelf thinning and retreat result in enhanced ice discharge to the ocean. Ice shelves are susceptible to changes in forcing from both the atmosphere and the ocean, which both change on a broad range of timescales to modify mass gains and losses at the surface and base, and from internal instabilities of the ice sheet itself. Mass loss from iceberg calving is episodic, with typical intervals between calving events on the order of decades. Since ice shelves are so vast, the only viable way to monitor them is with satellites. Here, we discuss results from satellite radar and laser altimeter data from one NASA satellite (ICESat), and four ESA satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, CryoSat-2) to obtain estimates of ice-shelf surface height since the early 1990s. The continuous time series show accelerated losses in total Antarctic ice-shelf volume from 1994 to 2017, and allow us to investigate the processes causing ice-shelf mass change. For Larsen C, much of the variability comes from changing atmospheric conditions affecting firn state. In the Amundsen Sea, the rapid thinning is a combination of accelerated ocean-driven thinning and ice dynamics. This long-term thinning signal is, however, is strongly modulated by ENSO-driven interannual variability. However, observations of ocean variability around Antarctica are sparse, since these regions are often covered in sea ice

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

2016-01-01

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bintanja, R.

2012-04-01

Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

The impact of 21st Century sea ice decline on the hydrological budget of the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.; Kohler, J.

2009-12-01

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. GCMs suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by about 1.5 due, largely, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the ensemble GCM predictions and has lead to the suggestion that the Arctic Ocean could be ice free in summer as soon as ~2014. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the water below during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. For example, changes in sea ice cover are thought to have caused changes in the mass balance of Europe’s largest ice cap, Austfona, Svalbard, by increasing accumulation. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmosphere only general circulation model HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice obtained by extrapolating recent changes into the future using bootstrapping based on the HadISST climatology. Here we use an RCM at 25km resolution over the Arctic which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation.

A Method for Continuous (239)Pu Determinations in Arctic and Antarctic Ice Cores.

PubMed

Arienzo, M M; McConnell, J R; Chellman, N; Criscitiello, A S; Curran, M; Fritzsche, D; Kipfstuhl, S; Mulvaney, R; Nolan, M; Opel, T; Sigl, M; Steffensen, J P

2016-07-05

Atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (NWT) resulted in the injection of plutonium (Pu) into the atmosphere and subsequent global deposition. We present a new method for continuous semiquantitative measurement of (239)Pu in ice cores, which was used to develop annual records of fallout from NWT in ten ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. The (239)Pu was measured directly using an inductively coupled plasma-sector field mass spectrometer, thereby reducing analysis time and increasing depth-resolution with respect to previous methods. To validate this method, we compared our one year averaged results to published (239)Pu records and other records of NWT. The (239)Pu profiles from the Arctic ice cores reflected global trends in NWT and were in agreement with discrete Pu profiles from lower latitude ice cores. The (239)Pu measurements in the Antarctic ice cores tracked low latitude NWT, consistent with previously published discrete records from Antarctica. Advantages of the continuous (239)Pu measurement method are (1) reduced sample preparation and analysis time; (2) no requirement for additional ice samples for NWT fallout determinations; (3) measurements are exactly coregistered with all other chemical, elemental, isotopic, and gas measurements from the continuous analytical system; and (4) the long half-life means the (239)Pu record is stable through time.

A Continuous Flow Diffusion Chamber Study of Sea Salt Particles Acting as Cloud Seeds: Deliquescence, Ice Nucleation and Sublimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, X.; Wolf, M. J.; Garimella, S.; Roesch, M.; Cziczo, D. J.

2016-12-01

Sea Salt Aerosols (SSA) are abundant in the atmosphere, and important to the Earth's chemistry and energy budget. However, the roles of sea salts in the context of cloud formation are still poorly understood, which is partially due to the complexity of the water-salt phase diagram. At ambient temperatures, even well below 0°C, SSA deliquesces at sub-water saturated conditions. Since the ratio of the partial pressure over ice versus super-cooled water continuously declines with decreasing temperatures, it is interesting to consider if SSA continues to deliquesce under a super-saturated condition of ice, or if particles act as depositional ice nuclei when a critical supersaturation is reached. Some recent studies suggest hydrated NaCl and simulated sea salt might deliquesce between -35°C to -44°C, and below that deposition freezing becomes possible. Deliquesced droplets can subsequently freeze via the immersion or homogenous freezing mode, depending on if the deliquescence processes is complete. After the droplets or ice particles are formed, it is also interesting to consider how the different processes influence physical properties after evaporation or sublimation. This data is important for climate modeling that includes bromine burst observed in Antarctica, which is hypothesized to be relevant to the sublimation of blowing snow particles. In this study we use a SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN; DMT, Inc., Boulder, CO) to perform experiments over a wide range of temperature and RH conditions to quantify deliquescence, droplet formation and ice nucleation. The formation of droplets and ice particles is detected by an advanced Optical Particle Counter (OPC) and the liquid/solid phases are distinguished by a machine learning method based on laser scattering and polarization data. Using an atomizer, four different sea salt samples are generated: pure NaCl and MgCl2 solutions, synthetic seawater, and natural seawater. Downstream of the SPIN chamber, a Pumped

Continued Declines in Teen Births in the United States, 2015.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Mathews, T J

2016-09-01

•The teen birth rate declined to another historic low for the United States in 2015, down 8% from 2014 to 22.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19. •The birth rates for teenagers aged 15-17 and 18-19 declined in 2015 to 9.9 and 40.7, respectively, which are record lows for both groups. •In 2015, birth rates declined to 6.9 for Asian or Pacific Islander, 16.0 for non-Hispanic white, 25.7 for American Indian or Alaska Native, 31.8 for non-Hispanic black, and 34.9 for Hispanic female teenagers aged 15-19. •Birth rates fell to record lows for nearly all race and Hispanic-origin groups of females aged 15-19, 15-17, and 18-19 in 2015. The birth rate for teenagers aged 15-19 has fallen almost continuously since 1991, reaching historic lows for the nation every year since 2009 (1-4). Despite declines in all racial and ethnic groups, teen birth rates continue to vary considerably by race and ethnicity. Moreover, the U.S. teen birth rate remains higher than in other industrialized countries (5). Childbearing by teenagers continues to be a matter of public concern. This report presents the recent and long-term trends and disparity in teen childbearing by race and Hispanic origin. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Recent Rapid Decline of the Arctic Winter Sea Ice in the Barents-Kara Seas Owing to Combined Effects of the Ural Blocking and SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Binhe; Yao, Yao

2018-04-01

This study investigates why the Arctic winter sea ice loss over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) is accelerated in the recent decade. We first divide 1979-2013 into two time periods: 1979-2000 (P1) and 2001-13 (P2), with a focus on P2 and the difference between P1 and P2. The results show that during P2, the rapid decline of the sea ice over the BKS is related not only to the high sea surface temperature (SST) over the BKS, but also to the increased frequency, duration, and quasi-stationarity of the Ural blocking (UB) events. Observational analysis reveals that during P2, the UB tends to become quasi stationary and its frequency tends to increase due to the weakening (strengthening) of zonal winds over the Eurasia (North Atlantic) when the surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the BKS is positive probably because of the high SST. Strong downward infrared (IR) radiation is seen to occur together with the quasi-stationary and persistent UB because of the accumulation of more water vapor over the BKS. Such downward IR favors the sea ice decline over the BKS, although the high SST over the BKS plays a major role. But for P1, the UB becomes westward traveling due to the opposite distribution of zonal winds relative to P2, resulting in weak downward IR over the BKS. This may lead to a weak decline of the sea ice over the BKS. Thus, it is likely that the rapid decline of the sea ice over the BKS during P2 is attributed to the joint effects of the high SST over the BKS and the quasi-stationary and long-lived UB events.

Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2014-12-01

The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the

The Increase of the Ice-free Season as Further Indication of the Rapid Decline of the Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, J.

2008-12-01

The unprecedented depletion of sea ice in large sectors of the Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2007 has been the subject of many publications which highlight the spectacular disappearance of the sea ice at the time of minimum ice cover or emphasise the losses at very high latitudes. However, minimum values can be strongly affected by specific circumstances occurring in a comparatively short time interval. The unusually clear skies and the presence of a particular wind pattern over the Arctic Ocean may partly explain the record minimum attained in September 2007. In this contribution, instead of limiting ourselves to the September minimum or the March maximum, we consider the ice conditions throughout the year, opting for a less used, and hopefully more convenient approach. We chose as variables to describe the evolution of the sea ice situation in the Arctic Ocean and peripheral seas in the 1979-2007 period the length of the ice- free season (LIFS) and the inverse sea ice index (ISII). The latter is a quantity that measures the degree of absence of sea ice in a year and varies between zero (when there is a perennial ice cover) and one (when there is open water all year round). We used sea ice concentration data obtained from passive microwave satellite imagery and processed with the Bootstrap algorithm for the SMMR and SSM/I periods, and with the Enhanced NASA Team algorithm for the AMSR-E period. From a linear fit of the observed data, we found that the average LIFS in the Arctic went from 118 days in the late 1970s to 148 days in 2006, which represents an average rate of increase of 1.1 days/year. In the period 2001-2007 the LIFS increased monotonically at an average rate of 5.5 days/year, in good agreement with the general consensus that the Arctic sea ice is currently in an accelerated decline. We also found that 2007 was the longest ice- free season on record (168 days). The ISII also reached a maximum in 2007 . We also investigated what happened at the regional

Continuous analysis of phosphate in a Greenland shallow ice core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjær, Helle Astrid; Svensson, Anders; Bigler, Matthias; Vallelonga, Paul; Kettner, Ernesto; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

2010-05-01

Phosphate is an important and sometimes limiting nutrient for primary production in the oceans. Because of deforestation and the use of phosphate as a fertilizer changes in the phosphate cycle have occurred over the last centuries. On longer time scales, sea level changes are thought to have also caused changes in the phosphate cycle. Analyzing phosphate concentrations in ice cores may help to gain important knowledge about those processes. In the present study, we attach a phosphate detection line to an existing continuous flow analysis (CFA) setup for ice core analysis at the University of Copenhagen. The CFA system is optimized for high-resolution measurements of insoluble dust particles, electrolytic melt water conductivity, and the concentrations of ammonium and sodium. For the phosphate analysis we apply a continuous and highly sensitive absorption method that has been successfully applied to determine phosphate concentrations of sea water (Zhang and Chi, 2002). A line of melt water from the CFA melt head (1.01 ml per minute) is combined with a molybdate blue reagent and an ascorbic acid buffer. An uncompleted reaction takes place in five meters of heated mixing coils before the absorption measurement at a wavelength of 710 nanometer takes place in a 2 m long liquid waveguide cell (LWCC) with an inner volume of 0.5 ml. The method has a detection limit of around 0.1 ppb and we are currently investigating a possible interference from molybdate reacting with silicates that are present in low amounts in the ice. Preliminary analysis of early Holocene samples from the NGRIP ice core show phosphate concentration values of a few ppb. In this study, we will attempt to determine past levels of phosphate in a shallow Northern Greenland firn core with an annual layer thickness of about 20 cm ice equivalent. With a melt speed of 2.5 cm ice per minute our method should allow the resolution of any seasonal variability in phosphate concentrations.

Sea-ice induced growth decline in Arctic shrubs.

PubMed

Forchhammer, Mads

2017-08-01

Measures of increased tundra plant productivity have been associated with the accelerating retreat of the Arctic sea-ice. Emerging studies document opposite effects, advocating for a more complex relationship between the shrinking sea-ice and terrestrial plant productivity. I introduce an autoregressive plant growth model integrating effects of biological and climatic conditions for analysing individual ring-width growth time series. Using 128 specimens of Salix arctica , S. glauca and Betula nana sampled across Greenland to Svalbard, an overall negative effect of the retreating June sea-ice extent was found on the annual growth. The negative effect of the retreating June sea-ice was observed for younger individuals with large annual growth allocations and with little or no trade-off between previous and current year's growth. © 2017 The Author(s).

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2007-01-01

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

Predicting declines in perceived relationship continuity using practice deprivation scores: a longitudinal study in primary care.

PubMed

Levene, Louis S; Baker, Richard; Walker, Nicola; Williams, Christopher; Wilson, Andrew; Bankart, John

2018-06-01

Increased relationship continuity in primary care is associated with better health outcomes, greater patient satisfaction, and fewer hospital admissions. Greater socioeconomic deprivation is associated with lower levels of continuity, as well as poorer health outcomes. To investigate whether deprivation scores predicted variations in the decline over time of patient-perceived relationship continuity of care, after adjustment for practice organisational and population factors. An observational study in 6243 primary care practices with more than one GP, in England, using a longitudinal multilevel linear model, 2012-2017 inclusive. Patient-perceived relationship continuity was calculated using two questions from the GP Patient Survey. The effect of deprivation on the linear slope of continuity over time was modelled, adjusting for nine confounding variables (practice population and organisational factors). Clustering of measurements within general practices was adjusted for by using a random intercepts and random slopes model. Descriptive statistics and univariable analyses were also undertaken. Relationship continuity declined by 27.5% between 2012 and 2017, and at all deprivation levels. Deprivation scores from 2012 did not predict variations in the decline of relationship continuity at practice level, after accounting for the effects of organisational and population confounding variables, which themselves did not predict, or weakly predicted with very small effect sizes, the decline of continuity. Cross-sectionally, continuity and deprivation were negatively correlated within each year. The decline in relationship continuity of care has been marked and widespread. Measures to maximise continuity will need to be feasible for individual practices with diverse population and organisational characteristics. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Continuous methane measurements from a late Holocene Greenland ice core: Atmospheric and in-situ signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Rachael H.; Faïn, Xavier; Stowasser, Christopher; Blunier, Thomas; Chappellaz, Jérôme; McConnell, Joseph R.; Romanini, Daniele; Mitchell, Logan E.; Brook, Edward J.

2013-04-01

Ancient air trapped inside bubbles in ice cores can now be analysed for methane concentration utilising a laser spectrometer coupled to a continuous melter system. We present a new ultra-high resolution record of atmospheric methane variability over the last 1800 yr obtained from continuous analysis of a shallow ice core from the North Greenland Eemian project (NEEM-2011-S1) during a 4-week laboratory-based measurement campaign. Our record faithfully replicates the form and amplitudes of multi-decadal oscillations previously observed in other ice cores and demonstrates the detailed depth resolution (5.3 cm), rapid acquisition time (30 m day-1) and good long-term reproducibility (2.6%, 2σ) of the continuous measurement technique. In addition, we report the detection of high frequency ice core methane signals of non-atmospheric origin. Firstly, measurements of air from the firn-ice transition region and an interval of ice core dating from 1546-1560 AD (gas age) resolve apparently quasi-annual scale methane oscillations. Traditional gas chromatography measurements on discrete ice samples confirm these signals and indicate peak-to-peak amplitudes of ca. 22 parts per billion (ppb). We hypothesise that these oscillations result from staggered bubble close-off between seasonal layers of contrasting density during time periods of sustained multi-year atmospheric methane change. Secondly, we report the detection of abrupt (20-100 cm depth interval), high amplitude (35-80 ppb excess) methane spikes in the NEEM ice that are reproduced by discrete measurements. We show for the first time that methane spikes present in thin and infrequent layers in polar, glacial ice are accompanied by elevated concentrations of carbon- and nitrogen-based chemical impurities, and suggest that biological in-situ production may be responsible.

Water isotopic ratios from a continuously melted ice core sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gkinis, V.; Popp, T. J.; Blunier, T.; Bigler, M.; Schüpbach, S.; Johnsen, S. J.

2011-06-01

A new technique for on-line high resolution isotopic analysis of liquid water, tailored for ice core studies is presented. We build an interface between an Infra Red Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (IR-CRDS) and a Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) system. The system offers the possibility to perform simultaneuous water isotopic analysis of δ18O and δD on a continuous stream of liquid water as generated from a continuously melted ice rod. Injection of sub μl amounts of liquid water is achieved by pumping sample through a fused silica capillary and instantaneously vaporizing it with 100 % efficiency in a home made oven at a temperature of 170 °C. A calibration procedure allows for proper reporting of the data on the VSMOW scale. We apply the necessary corrections based on the assessed performance of the system regarding instrumental drifts and dependance on humidity levels. The melt rates are monitored in order to assign a depth scale to the measured isotopic profiles. Application of spectral methods yields the combined uncertainty of the system at below 0.1 ‰ and 0.5 ‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. This performance is comparable to that achieved with mass spectrometry. Dispersion of the sample in the transfer lines limits the resolution of the technique. In this work we investigate and assess these dispersion effects. By using an optimal filtering method we show how the measured profiles can be corrected for the smoothing effects resulting from the sample dispersion. Considering the significant advantages the technique offers, i.e. simultaneuous measurement of δ18O and δD, potentially in combination with chemical components that are traditionally measured on CFA systems, notable reduction on analysis time and power consumption, we consider it as an alternative to traditional isotope ratio mass spectrometry with the possibility to be deployed for field ice core studies. We present data acquired in the framework of the NEEM deep ice core drilling project in

Initial Continuous Chemistry Results From The Roosevelt Island Ice Core (RICE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjær, H. A.; Vallelonga, P. T.; Simonsen, M. F.; Neff, P. D.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Svensson, A.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

2014-12-01

The Roosevelt Island ice core (79.36° S, -161.71° W) was drilled in 2011-13 at the top of the Roosevelt Island ice dome, a location surrounded by the Ross ice shelf. The RICE ice core provides a unique opportunity to look into the past evolution of the West Antarctic Ice sheet. Further the site has high accumulation; 0.26 m of ice equivalent is deposited annually allowing annual layer determination for many chemical parameters. The RICE core was drilled to bedrock and has a total length of 763 metres. Preliminary results derived from water isotopes suggest that the oldest ice reaches back to the Eemian, with the last glacial being compressed in the bottom 60 metres. We present preliminary results from the RICE ice core including continuous measurements of acidity using an optical dye method, insoluble dust particles, conductivity and calcium. The core was analyzed at the New Zealand National Ice Core Research Facility at GNS Science in Wellington. The analytical set up used to determine climate proxies in the ice core was a modified version of the Copenhagen CFA system (Bigler et al., 2011). Key volcanic layers have been matched to those from the WAIS record (Sigl et al., 2013). A significant anti-correlation between acidity and calcium was seen in the Holocene part of the record. Due to the proximity to the ocean a large fraction of the calcium originates from sea salt and is in phase with total conductivity and sodium. In combination with the insoluble dust record, calcium has been apportioned into ocean-related and dust-related sources. Variability over the Holocene is presented and attributed to changing inputs of marine and dust aerosols.

Climate Variations and Alaska Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines in Spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Bieniek, P.; Raynolds, M. K.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2015-12-01

While sea ice has continued to decline, vegetation productivity increases have declined particularly during spring in Alaska as well as many parts of the Arctic tundra. To understand the processes behind these features we investigate spring climate variations that includes temperature, circulation patterns, and snow cover to determine how these may be contributing to spring browning. This study employs remotely sensed weekly 25-km sea ice concentration, weekly surface temperature, and bi-weekly NDVI from 1982 to 2014. Maximum NDVI (MaxNDVI, Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), Time Integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI), Summer Warmth Index (SWI, sum of degree months above freezing during May-August), atmospheric reanalysis data, dynamically downscaled climate data, meteorological station data, and snow water equivalent (GlobSnow, assimilated snow data set). We analyzed the data for the full period (1982-2014) and for two sub-periods (1982-1998 and 1999-2014), which were chosen based on the declining Alaska SWI since 1998. MaxNDVI has increased from 1982-2014 over most of the Arctic but has declined from 1999 to 2014 southwest Alaska. TI-NDVI has trends that are similar to those for MaxNDVI for the full period but display widespread declines over the 1999-2014 period. Therefore, as the MaxNDVI has continued to increase overall for the Arctic, TI-NDVI has been declining since 1999 and these declines are particularly noteworthy during spring in Alaska. Spring declines in Alaska have been linked to increased spring snow cover that can delay greenup (Bieniek et al. 2015) but recent ground observations suggest that after an initial warming and greening, late season freezing temperature are damaging the plants. The late season freezing temperature hypothesis will be explored with meteorological climate/weather data sets for Alaska tundra regions. References P.A. Bieniek, US Bhatt, DA Walker, MK Raynolds, JC Comiso, HE Epstein, JE Pinzon, CJ Tucker, RL Thoman, H Tran, N M�

An Ice Core Melter System for Continuous Major and Trace Chemical Analyses of a New Mt. Logan Summit Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Handley, M. J.; Sneed, S. D.; Mayewski, P. A.; Kreutz, K. J.; Fisher, D. A.

2004-12-01

The ice core melter system at the University of Maine Climate Change Institute has been recently modified and updated to allow high-resolution (<1-2 cm ice/sample), continuous and coregistered sampling of ice cores, most notably the 2001 Mt. Logan summit ice core (187 m to bedrock), for analyses of 34 trace elements (Sr, Cd, Sb, Cs, Ba, Pb, Bi, U, As, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Zn, REE suite) by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), 8 major ions (Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-, MSA) by ion chromatography (IC), stable water isotopes (δ 18O, δ D, d) and volcanic tephra. The UMaine continuous melter (UMCoM) system is housed in a dedicated clean room with HEPA filtered air. Standard clean room procedures are employed during melting. A Wagenbach-style continuous melter system has been modified to include a pure Nickel melthead that can be easily dismantled for thorough cleaning. The system allows melting of both ice and firn without wicking of the meltwater into unmelted core. Contrary to ice core melter systems in which the meltwater is directly channeled to online instruments for continuous flow analyses, the UMCoM system collects discrete samples for each chemical analysis under ultraclean conditions. Meltwater from the pristine innermost section of the ice core is split between one fraction collector that accumulates ICP-MS samples in acid pre-cleaned polypropylene vials under a class-100 HEPA clean bench, and a second fraction collector that accumulates IC samples. A third fraction collector accumulates isotope and tephra samples from the potentially contaminated outer portion of the core. This method is advantageous because an archive of each sample remains for subsequent analyses (including trace element isotope ratios), and ICP-MS analytes are scanned for longer intervals and in replicate. Method detection limits, calculated from de-ionized water blanks passed through the entire UMCoM system, are below 10% of average Mt

An Optical Dye Method for Continuous Determination of Acidity in Ice Cores.

PubMed

Kjær, Helle Astrid; Vallelonga, Paul; Svensson, Anders; Elleskov L Kristensen, Magnus; Tibuleac, Catalin; Winstrup, Mai; Kipfstuhl, Sepp

2016-10-04

The pH of polar ice is important for the stability and mobility of impurities in ice cores and can be strongly influenced by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic emissions. We present a simple optical method for continuous determination of acidity in ice cores based on spectroscopically determined color changes of two common pH-indicator dyes, bromophenol blue, and chlorophenol red. The sealed-system method described here is not equilibrated with CO 2 , making it simpler than existing methods for pH determination in ice cores and offering a 10-90% peak response time of 45 s and a combined uncertainty of 9%. The method is applied to Holocene ice core sections from Greenland and Antarctica and compared to standard techniques such as electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) conducted on the solid ice, and electrolytic meltwater conductivity, EMWC. Acidity measured in the Greenland NGRIP ice core shows good agreement with acidity calculated from ion chromatography. Conductivity and dye-based acidity H dye + are found to be highly correlated in the Greenland NEGIS firn core (75.38° N, 35.56° W), with all signals greater than 3σ variability coinciding with either volcanic eruptions or possible wild fire activity. In contrast, the Antarctic Roosevelt Island ice core (79.36° S, 161.71° W) features an anticorrelation between conductivity and H dye + , likely due to strong influence of marine salts.

Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean-Ecosystem Processes in a Thinner Arctic Sea Ice Regime: The Norwegian Young Sea ICE (N-ICE2015) Expedition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granskog, Mats A.; Fer, Ilker; Rinke, Annette; Steen, Harald

2018-03-01

Arctic sea ice has been in rapid decline the last decade and the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition sought to investigate key processes in a thin Arctic sea ice regime, with emphasis on atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean dynamics and sea ice associated ecosystem. The main findings from a half-year long campaign are collected into this special section spanning the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, and Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences and provide a basis for a better understanding of processes in a thin sea ice regime in the high Arctic. All data from the campaign are made freely available to the research community.

California's Youth and Young Adult Arrest Rates Continue a Historic Decline. Fact Sheet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Males, Mike

2016-01-01

This Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) fact sheet shows that, in 2015, arrests of young people under age 25 dropped below 2014 levels and continue a decades-long trend of decline. While the causes of these declines are unknown, falling youth arrests rates coupled with decreased youth incarceration suggest that high rates of…

First-Year, Full-Time Graduate Science Enrollment Continues to Decline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Science Resources Studies Highlights, 1972

1972-01-01

Findings from a study of departmental data derived from traineeship applications in the sciences (including mathematical sciences) are presented in this paper. Data on full-time graduate enrollments from 1969 to 1971 are analyzed by type of institution, with results showing a continuing decline in first-year, full-time graduate science enrollment.…

Improved methodologies for continuous-flow analysis of stable water isotopes in ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Tyler R.; White, James W. C.; Steig, Eric J.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Morris, Valerie; Gkinis, Vasileios; Markle, Bradley R.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.

2017-02-01

Water isotopes in ice cores are used as a climate proxy for local temperature and regional atmospheric circulation as well as evaporative conditions in moisture source regions. Traditional measurements of water isotopes have been achieved using magnetic sector isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). However, a number of recent studies have shown that laser absorption spectrometry (LAS) performs as well or better than IRMS. The new LAS technology has been combined with continuous-flow analysis (CFA) to improve data density and sample throughput in numerous prior ice coring projects. Here, we present a comparable semi-automated LAS-CFA system for measuring high-resolution water isotopes of ice cores. We outline new methods for partitioning both system precision and mixing length into liquid and vapor components - useful measures for defining and improving the overall performance of the system. Critically, these methods take into account the uncertainty of depth registration that is not present in IRMS nor fully accounted for in other CFA studies. These analyses are achieved using samples from a South Pole firn core, a Greenland ice core, and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. The measurement system utilizes a 16-position carousel contained in a freezer to consecutively deliver ˜ 1 m × 1.3 cm2 ice sticks to a temperature-controlled melt head, where the ice is converted to a continuous liquid stream and eventually vaporized using a concentric nebulizer for isotopic analysis. An integrated delivery system for water isotope standards is used for calibration to the Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) scale, and depth registration is achieved using a precise overhead laser distance device with an uncertainty of ±0.2 mm. As an added check on the system, we perform inter-lab LAS comparisons using WAIS Divide ice samples, a corroboratory step not taken in prior CFA studies. The overall results are important for substantiating data obtained from LAS

Water isotopic ratios from a continuously melted ice core sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gkinis, V.; Popp, T. J.; Blunier, T.; Bigler, M.; Schüpbach, S.; Kettner, E.; Johnsen, S. J.

2011-11-01

A new technique for on-line high resolution isotopic analysis of liquid water, tailored for ice core studies is presented. We built an interface between a Wavelength Scanned Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (WS-CRDS) purchased from Picarro Inc. and a Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) system. The system offers the possibility to perform simultaneuous water isotopic analysis of δ18O and δD on a continuous stream of liquid water as generated from a continuously melted ice rod. Injection of sub μl amounts of liquid water is achieved by pumping sample through a fused silica capillary and instantaneously vaporizing it with 100% efficiency in a~home made oven at a temperature of 170 °C. A calibration procedure allows for proper reporting of the data on the VSMOW-SLAP scale. We apply the necessary corrections based on the assessed performance of the system regarding instrumental drifts and dependance on the water concentration in the optical cavity. The melt rates are monitored in order to assign a depth scale to the measured isotopic profiles. Application of spectral methods yields the combined uncertainty of the system at below 0.1‰ and 0.5‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. This performance is comparable to that achieved with mass spectrometry. Dispersion of the sample in the transfer lines limits the temporal resolution of the technique. In this work we investigate and assess these dispersion effects. By using an optimal filtering method we show how the measured profiles can be corrected for the smoothing effects resulting from the sample dispersion. Considering the significant advantages the technique offers, i.e. simultaneuous measurement of δ18O and δD, potentially in combination with chemical components that are traditionally measured on CFA systems, notable reduction on analysis time and power consumption, we consider it as an alternative to traditional isotope ratio mass spectrometry with the possibility to be deployed for field ice core studies. We present

Evaluating the Duration and Continuity of Potential Climate Records From the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehrl, Laura; Conway, Howard; Holschuh, Nicholas; Campbell, Seth; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; Spaulding, Nicole E.

2018-05-01

The current ice core record extends back 800,000 years. Geologic and glaciological evidence suggests that the Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East Antarctica, may preserve a continuous record that extends further back in time. In this study, we use ice-penetrating radar and existing age constraints to map the internal stratigraphy and age structure of the Allan Hills Main Ice Field. The dated isochrones provide constraints for an ice flow model to estimate the age of ice near the bed. Previous drilling in the region recovered stratigraphically disturbed sections of ice up to 2.7 million years old. Our study identifies a site 5 km upstream, which likely preserves a continuous record through Marine Isotope Stage 11 with the possibility that the record extends back 1 million years. Such records would provide new insight into the past climate and glacial history of the Ross Sea Sector.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laidre, K. L.; Regehr, E. V.; Akcakaya, H. R.; Amstrup, S. C.; Atwood, T.; Lunn, N.; Obbard, M.; Stern, H. L., III; Thiemann, G.; Wiig, O.

2016-12-01

Loss of Arctic sea ice due to climate change is the most serious threat to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) throughout their circumpolar range. We performed a data-based sensitivity analysis with respect to this threat by evaluating the potential response of the global polar bear population to projected sea-ice conditions. We conducted 1) an assessment of generation length for polar bears, 2) developed of a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat characteristics for the species; and 3) performed population projections over three generations, using computer simulation and statistical models representing alternative relationships between sea ice and polar bear abundance. Using three separate approaches, the median percent change in mean global population size for polar bears between 2015 and 2050 ranged from -4% (95% CI = -62%, 50%) to -43% (95% CI = -76%, -20%). Results highlight the potential for large reductions in the global population if sea-ice loss continues. They also highlight the large amount of uncertainty in statistical projections of polar bear abundance and the sensitivity of projections to plausible alternative assumptions. The median probability of a reduction in the mean global population size of polar bears greater than 30% over three generations was approximately 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95. The median probability of a reduction greater than 50% was approximately 0.07 (range 0-0.35), and the probability of a reduction greater than 80% was negligible.

Continuous, Pulsed Export of Methane-Supersaturated Meltwaters from the Bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche-Gagnon, G.; Wadham, J.; Beaton, A.; Fietzek, P.; Stanley, K. M.; Tedstone, A.; Sherwood Lollar, B.; Lacrampe Couloume, G.; Telling, J.; Liz, B.; Hawkings, J.; Kohler, T. J.; Zarsky, J. D.; Stibal, M.; Mowlem, M. C.

2016-12-01

Both past and present ice sheets have been proposed to cap large quantities of methane (CH4), on orders of magnitude significant enough to impact global greenhouse gas concentrations during periods of rapid ice retreat. However, to date most evidence for sub-ice sheet methane has been indirect, derived from calculations of the methanogenic potential of basal-ice microbial communities and biogeochemical models; field-based empirical measurements are lacking from large ice sheet catchments. Here, we present the first continuous, in situ record of dissolved methane export from a large catchment of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in South West Greenland from May-July 2015. Our results indicate that glacial runoff was continuously supersaturated with methane over the observation period (dissolved CH4 concentrations of 30-700 nM), with total methane flux rising as subglacial discharge increased. Periodic subglacial drainage events, characterised by rapid changes (i.e. pulses) in meltwater hydrochemistry, also coincided with a rise in methane concentrations. We argue that these are likely indicative of the flushing of subglacial reservoirs of CH4 beneath the ice sheet. Total methane export was relatively modest when compared to global methane budgets, but too high to be explained by previously determined methanogenic rates from Greenland basal ice. Discrepancies between estimated Greenland methane reserves and observed fluxes stress the need to further investigate GrIS methane fluxes and sources, and suggest a more biogeochemically active subglacial environment than previously considered. Results indicate that future warming, and a coincident increase in ice melt rates, would likely make the GrIS, and by extension the Antarctic Ice Sheet, more significant sources of atmospheric methane, consequently acting as a positive feedback to a warming climate.

Report to the nation finds continuing declines in cancer death rates

Cancer.gov

Death rates from all cancers combined for men, women, and children continued to decline in the United States between 2004 and 2008, according to the Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2008. The overall rate of new cancer diagnoses,

New Tools for Sea Ice Data Analysis and Visualization: NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vizcarra, N.; Stroeve, J.; Beam, K.; Beitler, J.; Brandt, M.; Kovarik, J.; Savoie, M. H.; Skaug, M.; Stafford, T.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has long been recognized as a sensitive climate indicator and has undergone a dramatic decline over the past thirty years. Antarctic sea ice continues to be an intriguing and active field of research. The National Snow and Ice Data Center's Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis (ASINA) offers researchers and the public a transparent view of sea ice data and analysis. We have released a new set of tools for sea ice analysis and visualization. In addition to Charctic, our interactive sea ice extent graph, the new Sea Ice Data and Analysis Tools page provides access to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice data organized in seven different data workbooks, updated daily or monthly. An interactive tool lets scientists, or the public, quickly compare changes in ice extent and location. Another tool allows users to map trends, anomalies, and means for user-defined time periods. Animations of September Arctic and Antarctic monthly average sea ice extent and concentration may also be accessed from this page. Our tools help the NSIDC scientists monitor and understand sea ice conditions in near real time. They also allow the public to easily interact with and explore sea ice data. Technical innovations in our data center helped NSIDC quickly build these tools and more easily maintain them. The tools were made publicly accessible to meet the desire from the public and members of the media to access the numbers and calculations that power our visualizations and analysis. This poster explores these tools and how other researchers, the media, and the general public are using them.

Rapid ice drilling with continual air transport of cuttings and cores: General concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rusheng; An, Liu; Cao, Pinlu; Chen, Baoyi; Sysoev, Mikhail; Fan, Dayou; Talalay, Pavel G.

2017-12-01

This article describes the investigation of the feasibility of rapid drilling in ice sheets and glaciers to depths of up to 600 m, with cuttings and cores continually transported by air reverse circulation. The method employs dual wall drill rods. The inner tubes provide a continuous pathway for the chips and cores from the drill bit face to the surface. To modify air reverse circulation drilling technology according to the conditions of a specific glacier, original cutter drill bits and air processing devices (air-cooled aftercoolers, air receivers, coalescing filters, desiccant dryers) should be used. The airflow velocity for conveying a 60-mm diameter and 200-mm long ice core should not be lower than 22.5 m/s, and the minimal airflow rate for continual chip and cores transport is 6.8 m3/min at 2.3-2.6 MPa. Drilling of a 600-m deep hole can be accomplished within 1.5 days in the case of 24 h drilling operations. However, to avoid sticking while drilling through ice, the drilling depth should to be limited to 540 m at a temperature of -20 °C and to 418 m at a temperature of -10 °C.

Arctic Sea Ice in Transformation: A Review of Recent Observed Changes and Impacts on Biology and Human Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meier, Walter N.; Hovelsrud, Greta K.; van Oort, Bob E. H.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Michel, Christine; Haas, Christian; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Perovich, Donald K.;

Landward and eastward shift of Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischbach, Anthony S.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Douglas, David C.

2007-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the northern Alaska region den in coastal areas and on offshore drifting ice. We evaluated changes in the distribution of polar bear maternal dens between 1985 and 2005, using satellite telemetry. We determined the distribution of maternal dens occupied by 89 satellite collared female polar bears between 137°W and 167°W longitude. The proportion of dens on pack ice declined from 62% in 1985–1994 to 37% in 1998–2004 (P = 0.044) and among pack ice dens fewer occurred in the western Beaufort Sea after 1998. We evaluated whether hunting, attraction to bowhead whale remains, or changes in sea ice could explain changes in den distribution. We concluded that denning distribution changed in response to reductions in stable old ice, increases in unconsolidated ice, and lengthening of the melt season. In consort, these changes have likely reduced the availability and quality of pack ice denning habitat. Further declines in sea ice availability are predicted. Therefore, we expect the proportion of polar bears denning in coastal areas will continue to increase, until such time as the autumn ice retreats far enough from shore that it precludes offshore pregnant females from reaching the Alaska coast in advance of denning.

The continuing decline of coral reefs in Bahrain.

PubMed

Burt, John A; Al-Khalifa, Khalifa; Khalaf, Ebtesam; Alshuwaikh, Bassem; Abdulwahab, Ahmed

2013-07-30

Historically coral reefs of Bahrain were among the most extensive in the southern basin of the Arabian Gulf. However, Bahrain's reefs have undergone significant decline in the last four decades as a result of large-scale coastal development and elevated sea surface temperature events. Here we quantitatively surveyed six sites including most major coral reef habitats around Bahrain and a reef located 72 km offshore. Fleshy and turf algae now dominate Bahrain's reefs (mean: 72% cover), and live coral cover is low (mean: 5.1%). Formerly dominant Acropora were not observed at any site. The offshore Bulthama reef had the highest coral cover (16.3%) and species richness (22 of the 23 species observed, 13 of which were exclusive to this site). All reefs for which recent and historical data are available show continued degradation, and it is unlikely that they will recover under continuing coastal development and projected climate change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2012-01-01

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of

Sea-Ice Freeboard Retrieval Using Digital Photon-Counting Laser Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, Sinead L.; Brunt, Kelly M.; Ruth, Julia M.; Kuhn, John M.; Connor, Laurence N.; Walsh, Kaitlin M.

2015-01-01

Airborne and spaceborne altimeters provide measurements of sea-ice elevation, from which sea-ice freeboard and thickness may be derived. Observations of the Arctic ice pack by satellite altimeters indicate a significant decline in ice thickness, and volume, over the last decade. NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key sea-ice observations through the end of this decade. An airborne simulator for ICESat-2, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), has been deployed to gather pre-launch data for mission development. We present an analysis of MABEL data gathered over sea ice in the Greenland Sea and assess the capabilities of photon-counting techniques for sea-ice freeboard retrieval. We compare freeboard estimates in the marginal ice zone derived from MABEL photon-counting data with coincident data collected by a conventional airborne laser altimeter. We find that freeboard estimates agree to within 0.03m in the areas where sea-ice floes were interspersed with wide leads, and to within 0.07m elsewhere. MABEL data may also be used to infer sea-ice thickness, and when compared with coincident but independent ice thickness estimates, MABEL ice thicknesses agreed to within 0.65m or better.

Sea ice ecosystems.

PubMed

Arrigo, Kevin R

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Robert P.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, Gennady I.; Drobot, Sheldon

2005-01-01

Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice

Development of a continuous flow thermal gradient diffusion chamber for ice nucleation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, David C.

A supercooled continuous flow, thermal gradient diffusion chamber has been developed to study the ice nucleating properties of natural or artificial aerosols. The chamber has concentric cylinder geometry with the cylinder axis alignment and airflow vertically downward. Sample airflow is 1 l min -1 and occupies the central 10% of the annular lamina; it is separated from the ice-covered walls by filtered sheath air. The wall temperatures are independently controlled over the range from about -4°C to -25°C, so that the vapor concentration at the location of the sample lamina can be set to a well defined value between ice saturation and a few percent water supersaturation. There is a range of temperature and supersaturation values across the sample region; for lamina center conditions of -15°C and +1% with respect to water, the range is -14.6 to -15.4°C and +0.53 to +1.31%. Errors in temperature control produce variations estimated as ±0.1°C and ±0.23%. Typical sample residence time is about 10 s. Ice crystals which form on active nuclei are detected optically at the outlet end of the chamber. To enhance the size difference between ice crystals and cloud droplets, the downstream 25% of the warm ice wall is covered with a thermally insulating vapor barrier which reduces the vapor concentration to ice saturation at the cold wall temperature, so cloud droplets evaporate. A mathematical model was developed to describe the temperature and vapor fields and to calculate the growth, evaporation, and sedimentation of water and ice particles. At 1% water supersaturation, the model predicts that ice particles will grow to about 5 μm diameter, and cloud droplets will achieve about 1 μm before they reach the evaporation section of the chamber. A different model was developed to describe the steady state airflow profile and location of the sample lamina. Experimental tests of the chamber were performed to characterize the airflow, to assess the ability of the technique to

Evidence for a Continuous Decline in Lower Stratospheric Ozone Offsetting Ozone Layer Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stuebi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John;

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; Bourassa, Adam; Davis, Sean M.; Degenstein, Doug; Frith, Stacey; Froidevaux, Lucien; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Rozanov, Eugene V.

2018-02-01

Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60-90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

Possible causes of Arctic Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2017-12-01

Three decades of remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data document an overall increase in Arctic tundra vegetation greenness but the trends display considerable spatial variability. Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greening is associated with increases in summer warmth that are, in large-part, driven by summer sea-ice retreat along Arctic coasts. Trends covering the period 1982-2016 are overall positive for summer open water, Summer Warmth Index (SWI, the sum of the degree months above zero from May-August), MaxNDVI (peak NDVI) and time integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI, sum of biweekly NDVI above 0.05 from May-September). Upon closer examination, it is clear that not all regions have positive trends, for example, there is an area of cooling in western Eurasia, which is broadly co-located with maxNDVI and TI-NDVI declines. While sea ice decline has continued over the satellite record, summer landsurface temperatures and vegetation productivity measures have not simply increased. Regional differences between warming and greening trends suggest that it is likely that multiple processes influence vegetation productivity beyond secular greening with increased summer warmth. This paper will present Pan-Arctic and regional analyses of the NDVI data in the context of climate drivers. Other possible drivers of vegetation productivity decline will be discussed such as increased standing water, delayed spring snow-melt, and winter thaw events. The status and limitations of data sets and modeling needed to advance our understanding of tundra vegetation productivity will be summarized and will serve as a starting point for planning the next steps in this topic. Methodical multi-disciplinary synthesis research that jointly considers vegetation type, permafrost conditions, altitude, as well as climate factors such as temperature, heat and moisture transport, and timing of snowfall and spring snowmelt is needed to better understand recent tundra vegetation

Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2015-04-01

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica's mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003-2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of - 121 ± 8 Gt /yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of - 18 ± 5 Gt /yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica's loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at - 92 ± 10 Gt /yr.

Implications of fractured Arctic perennial ice cover on thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asplin, Matthew G.; Scharien, Randall; Else, Brent; Howell, Stephen; Barber, David G.; Papakyriakou, Tim; Prinsenberg, Simon

2014-04-01

Decline of the Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent is characterized by large expanses of open water in the Siberian, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, and introduces large fetch distances in the Arctic Ocean. Long waves can propagate deep into the pack ice, thereby causing flexural swell and failure of the sea ice. This process shifts the floe size diameter distribution smaller, increases floe surface area, and thereby affects sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results of Radarsat-2 imagery analysis show that a flexural fracture event which occurred in the Beaufort Sea region on 6 September 2009 affected ˜40,000 km2. Open water fractional area in the area affected initially decreased from 3.7% to 2.7%, but later increased to ˜20% following wind-forced divergence of the ice pack. Energy available for lateral melting was assessed by estimating the change in energy entrainment from longwave and shortwave radiation in the mixed-layer of the ocean following flexural fracture. 11.54 MJ m-2 of additional energy for lateral melting of ice floes was identified in affected areas. The impact of this process in future Arctic sea ice melt seasons was assessed using estimations of earlier occurrences of fracture during the melt season, and is discussed in context with ocean heat fluxes, atmospheric mixing of the ocean mixed layer, and declining sea ice cover. We conclude that this process is an important positive feedback to Arctic sea ice loss, and timing of initiation is critical in how it affects sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Multiscale Models of Melting Arctic Sea Ice

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

September 29, 2013 LONG-TERM GOALS Sea ice reflectance or albedo , a key parameter in climate modeling, is primarily determined by melt pond...and ice floe configurations. Ice - albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However...understanding the evolution of melt ponds and sea ice albedo remains a significant challenge to improving climate models. Our research is focused on

Uncertainty in counting ice nucleating particles with continuous flow diffusion chambers

DOE PAGES

Garimella, Sarvesh; Rothenberg, Daniel A.; Wolf, Martin J.; ...

2017-09-14

This study investigates the measurement of ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations and sizing of crystals using continuous flow diffusion chambers (CFDCs). CFDCs have been deployed for decades to measure the formation of INPs under controlled humidity and temperature conditions in laboratory studies and by ambient aerosol populations. These measurements have, in turn, been used to construct parameterizations for use in models by relating the formation of ice crystals to state variables such as temperature and humidity as well as aerosol particle properties such as composition and number. We show here that assumptions of ideal instrument behavior are not supported by measurements mademore » with a commercially available CFDC, the SPectrometer for Ice Nucleation (SPIN), and the instrument on which it is based, the Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber (ZINC). Non-ideal instrument behavior, which is likely inherent to varying degrees in all CFDCs, is caused by exposure of particles to different humidities and/or temperatures than predicated from instrument theory of operation. This can result in a systematic, and variable, underestimation of reported INP concentrations. Here we find here variable correction factors from 1.5 to 9.5, consistent with previous literature values. We use a machine learning approach to show that non-ideality is most likely due to small-scale flow features where the aerosols are combined with sheath flows. Machine learning is also used to minimize the uncertainty in measured INP concentrations. Finally, we suggest that detailed measurement, on an instrument-by-instrument basis, be performed to characterize this uncertainty.« less

Uncertainty in counting ice nucleating particles with continuous flow diffusion chambers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garimella, Sarvesh; Rothenberg, Daniel A.; Wolf, Martin J.; David, Robert O.; Kanji, Zamin A.; Wang, Chien; Rösch, Michael; Cziczo, Daniel J.

2017-09-01

This study investigates the measurement of ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations and sizing of crystals using continuous flow diffusion chambers (CFDCs). CFDCs have been deployed for decades to measure the formation of INPs under controlled humidity and temperature conditions in laboratory studies and by ambient aerosol populations. These measurements have, in turn, been used to construct parameterizations for use in models by relating the formation of ice crystals to state variables such as temperature and humidity as well as aerosol particle properties such as composition and number. We show here that assumptions of ideal instrument behavior are not supported by measurements made with a commercially available CFDC, the SPectrometer for Ice Nucleation (SPIN), and the instrument on which it is based, the Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber (ZINC). Non-ideal instrument behavior, which is likely inherent to varying degrees in all CFDCs, is caused by exposure of particles to different humidities and/or temperatures than predicated from instrument theory of operation. This can result in a systematic, and variable, underestimation of reported INP concentrations. We find here variable correction factors from 1.5 to 9.5, consistent with previous literature values. We use a machine learning approach to show that non-ideality is most likely due to small-scale flow features where the aerosols are combined with sheath flows. Machine learning is also used to minimize the uncertainty in measured INP concentrations. We suggest that detailed measurement, on an instrument-by-instrument basis, be performed to characterize this uncertainty.

Comparison of a continuous temperature-controlled cryotherapy device to a simple icing regimen following outpatient knee arthroscopy.

PubMed

Woolf, Shane K; Barfield, William R; Merrill, Keith D; McBryde, Angus M

2008-01-01

This prospective, randomized study compared postoperative pain control with use of a continuous temperature-controlled cryotherapy system versus a traditional ice therapy regimen following outpatient knee arthroscopy. Patients with unilateral knee pathology scheduled for outpatient arthroscopic surgery were included. Patients with major ligament reconstructions were excluded. A specific cold therapy regimen was begun postoperatively and continued for 2 weeks as adjunctive management of postoperative pain. Preoperative and postoperative pain intensity, pain type, functionality, and sleep quality were assessed. Patients were randomly assigned to either an ice or a continuous cryotherapy group. Follow-up questionnaires were completed on 5 postoperative days. Data were analyzed using a chi-square test with a level of significance at P < 0.05. Fifty-three patients completed the study. Pain intensity was similar between groups throughout the course of the study. Among patients who reported experiencing night pain, 36% of those in the continuous cryotherapy group were able to sleep soundly with minimal awakening through postoperative day 2 versus 5.9% among the ice therapy group (P = 0.04). No significant differences existed between groups regarding functional ability, and no differences were noted on other follow-up days. These findings support use of continuous temperature-controlled cold therapy devices for nighttime pain control and improved quality of life in the early period following routine knee arthroscopy.

Towards a novel continuous sublimation extraction/laser spectroscopy method for greenhouse gas measurements in the oldest ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bereiter, Bernhard; Maechler, Lars; Schmitt, Jochen; Walther, Remo; Tuzson, Béla; Scheidegger, Philipp; Emmenegger, Lukas; Fischer, Hubertus

2017-04-01

Ice cores are unique archives of ancient air providing the only direct record of past greenhouse gases - key in reconstructing the roles of greenhouse gases in past climate changes. The European Partnership in Ice Core Sciences (EuroPICS) plans to drill an ice core extending over 1.5 Ma, nearly doubling the time span of the existing greenhouse record and covering the time period of the Mid Pleistocene Transition. The ice covering the time interval from 1-1.5 Ma is expected to be close to the bedrock and, due to glacial flow, extremely thinned. A 10,000 yr glacial/interglacial transition can be compressed in 1 m of ice. The targeted 100 yr resolution therefore constrains the sample size to 15-30 g containing only 1-2ml STP air. Within the deepSlice project we aim to unlock such atmospheric archives in extremely thinned ice by developing a novel coupled semi-continuous sublimation extraction/laser spectroscopy system. Vacuum sublimation, with an infrared source, has been chosen as extraction method as it allows 100% gas extraction of all gas species from ice without changing the isotopic composition of CO2. In order to reduce ice waste and accelerate sample throughput, we are building a sublimation extraction system that is able to continuously sublimate an ice-core section and subsequently collect discrete full air samples. For the gas analytics, we develop a custom-made mid-infrared laser spectrometer allowing simultaneous measurement of the CO2, CH4 and N2O concentrations as well as the isotopic composition of CO2 on air samples of only 1-2 ml STP. The two systems will be coupled via cryo-trapping of the sample air in dip tubes, followed by expansion of the sample air into the laser spectrometer. Due to the nondestructive laser technique, the air sample can be recollected and reused for further analytics.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Continued rapid glacier recession following the 1995 collapse of the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasser, N. F.; Scambos, T. A.

2009-12-01

We use optical satellite imagery (ASTER and Landsat) to document changes in the Prince Gustav Ice Shelf (PGIS) and its tributary glaciers before and after its 1995 collapse. Interpretation of a pre-collapse Landsat 4-5 TM image acquired in February 1988 shows that the ice shelf was fed primarily by Sjogren Glacier from the Antarctic Peninsula and by Rhoss Glacier from James Ross Island (JRI). In 1988, the PGIS contained numerous structural discontinuities (rifts and crevasses), which collectively indicate that ice-shelf break-up had commenced at least seven years before collapse. Meltwater ponds and streams were also common across its surface. After the ice shelf collapsed, Rhoss Glacier became a tidewater glacier and has since experienced rapid and continued recession. Between January 2001 and December 2006 (six to eleven years after the collapse of the PGIS), the front of Rhoss Glacier receded a total of 13.6 km. We conclude that where tributary glaciers become tidewater glaciers they react to ice-shelf removal by rapid and continued recession and that the response time of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula to ice-shelf removal is measured on annual to decadal timescales. This rapid recession, coupled with previously documented tributary glacier thinning and acceleration, indicates that Antarctic Peninsula glaciers are extremely sensitive to ice-shelf collapse.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Polar Bears Across the Arctic Face Shorter Sea Ice Season

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Polar bears already face shorter ice seasons - limiting prime hunting and breeding opportunities. Nineteen separate polar bear subpopulations live throughout the Arctic, spending their winters and springs roaming on sea ice and hunting. The bears have evolved mainly to eat seals, which provide necessary fats and nutrients in the harsh Arctic environment. Polar bears can't outswim their prey, so instead they perch on the ice as a platform and ambush seals at breathing holes or break through the ice to access their dens. The total number of ice-covered days declined at the rate of seven to 19 days per decade between 1979 and 2014. The decline was even greater in the Barents Sea and the Arctic basin. Sea ice concentration during the summer months — an important measure because summertime is when some subpopulations are forced to fast on land — also declined in all regions, by 1 percent to 9 percent per decade. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2cIZSSc Photo credit: Mario Hoppmann

Impact Studies of a 2 C Global Warming on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2004-01-01

The possible impact of an increase in global temperatures of about 2 C, as may be caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is studied using historical satellite records of surface temperatures and sea ice from late 1970s to 2003. Updated satellite data indicate that the perennial ice continued to decline at an even faster rate of 9.2 % per decade than previously reported while concurrently, the surface temperatures have steadily been going up in most places except for some parts of northern Russia. Surface temperature is shown to be highly correlated with sea ice concentration in the seasonal sea ice regions. Results of regression analysis indicates that for every 1 C increase in temperature, the perennial ice area decreases by about 1.48 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers with the correlation coefficient being significant but only -0.57. Arctic warming is estimated to be about 0.46 C per decade on average in the Arctic but is shown to be off center with respect to the North Pole, and is prominent mainly in the Western Arctic and North America. The length of melt has been increasing by 13 days per decade over sea ice covered areas suggesting a thinning in the ice cover. The length of melt also increased by 5 days per decade over Greenland, 7 days per decade over the permafrost areas of North America but practically no change in Eurasia. Statistically derived projections indicate that the perennial sea ice cover would decline considerably in 2025, 2035, and 2060 when temperatures are predicted by models to reach the 2 C global increase.

Update and Overview of Spinal Injuries in Canadian Ice Hockey, 1943 to 2011: The Continuing Need for Injury Prevention and Education.

PubMed

Tator, Charles H; Provvidenza, Christine; Cassidy, J David

2016-05-01

To identify spinal injuries in Canadian ice hockey from 2006 to 2011 and to discuss data from 1943 to 2011 and impact of injury prevention programs. Data about spinal injuries with and without spinal cord injury in ice hockey have been collected by ThinkFirst's (now Parachute Canada) Canadian Ice Hockey Spinal Injuries Registry since 1981 through questionnaires from practitioners, ice hockey organizations, and media. All Canadian provinces and territories. All registered Canadian ice hockey players. Age, gender, level of play, location, mechanism of injury. Incidence, incidence rate, prevalence, and nature (morbidity) of the injuries. Between 2006 and 2011, 44 cases occurred, 4 (9.1%) of which were severe. The incidence in the recent years continues to be lower than the peak years. From 1943 to 2011, 355 cases have been documented, primarily males (97.7%) and cervical spine injuries (78.9%), resulting from impact with the boards (64.2%). Check or push from behind (36.0%) was still the most common cause of injury, although slightly lower during 2006 to 2011. From 1943 to 2011, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and British Columbia/Yukon had the highest injury rates. Ontario and Quebec continued to show markedly different injury rates, with Ontario more than twice that of Quebec. Current data for 2006 to 2011 indicate that spinal injuries in ice hockey continue to occur, although still at lower rates than the peak years 1982 to 1995. It is imperative to continue educating players and team officials about spinal injury prevention and to reinforce the rules against checking or pushing from behind to reduce the incidence of these serious injuries.

Sea Ice Evolution in the Pacific Arctic by Selected CMIP5 Models: the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Yang, Q.; Overland, J. E.; Stabeno, P. J.

2016-12-01

With fast declining of sea ice cover in the Arctic, the timing of sea ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social and scientific issue. Based on daily sea ice concentration data we assess three parameters: the dates of sea ice break-up and freeze-up and the annual sea ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The sea ice duration is shrinking, with the largest trend during the past decade (1990-2015); this declining trend will continue based on CMIP5 model projections. The seven CMIP5 models used in current study are able to simulate all three parameters well when compared with observations. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and the eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) boxes show consistent results as well. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea ice duration is projected to be -0.68 days/year to -1.2 days/year for 2015-2044. This is equivalent 20 to 36 days reduction in the annual sea ice duration. A similar magnitude of the negative trend is also found at all eight DBO boxes. The reduction in annual sea ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up date. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than early break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea ice duration. Around the Bering Strait future changes are the smallest, with less than 20-days change in duration during next 30 years. Upto 60 days reduction of the sea ice duration is projected for the decade of 2030-2044 in the East Siberia, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas.

How will we ensure the long-term sea ice data record continues?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Kaleschke, L.

2017-12-01

The multi-channel satellite passive microwave record has been of enormous benefit to the science community and society at large since the late 1970s. Starting with the launch of the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multi-Channel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) in October 1978, and continuing with the launch of a series of Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/Is) in June 1987 by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), places previously difficult to monitor year-round, such as the polar regions, came to light. Together these sensors have provided nearly 4 decades of climate data records on the state of sea ice cover over the ocean and snow on land. This data has also been used to map melt extent on the large ice sheets, timing of snow melt onset over land and sea ice. Application also extend well beyond the polar regions, mapping important climate variables, such as soil moisture content, oceanic wind speed, rainfall, water vapor, cloud liquid water and total precipitable water. Today the current SSMIS operational satellite (F18) is 7 years old and there is no follow-on mission planned by the DMSP. With the end of the SSMI family of Sensors, will the polar regions once again be in the dark? Other sensors that may contribute to the long-term data record include the JAXA AMSR2 (5 years old as of May 2017), the Chinese Fen-Yung-3 and the Russian Meteor-N2. Scatterometry and L-band radiometry from SMOS and NASA's SMOS may also provide some potential means of extending the sea ice extent data record, as well as future sensors by the DoD, JAXA and ESA. However, this will require considerable effort to intercalibrate the different sensors to ensure consistency in the long-term data record. Differences in measurement approach, frequency and spatial resolution make this a non-trivial matter. The passive microwave sea ice extent data record is one of the longest and most consistent climate data records available. It provides daily monitoring of one of the most striking changes in

Reviews and syntheses: Ice acidification, the effects of ocean acidification on sea ice microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMinn, Andrew

2017-09-01

Sea ice algae, like some coastal and estuarine phytoplankton, are naturally exposed to a wider range of pH and CO2 concentrations than those in open marine seas. While climate change and ocean acidification (OA) will impact pelagic communities, their effects on sea ice microbial communities remain unclear. Sea ice contains several distinct microbial communities, which are exposed to differing environmental conditions depending on their depth within the ice. Bottom communities mostly experience relatively benign bulk ocean properties, while interior brine and surface (infiltration) communities experience much greater extremes. Most OA studies have examined the impacts on single sea ice algae species in culture. Although some studies examined the effects of OA alone, most examined the effects of OA and either light, nutrients or temperature. With few exceptions, increased CO2 concentration caused either no change or an increase in growth and/or photosynthesis. In situ studies on brine and surface algae also demonstrated a wide tolerance to increased and decreased pH and showed increased growth at higher CO2 concentrations. The short time period of most experiments (< 10 days), together with limited genetic diversity (i.e. use of only a single strain), however, has been identified as a limitation to a broader interpretation of the results. While there have been few studies on the effects of OA on the growth of marine bacterial communities in general, impacts appear to be minimal. In sea ice also, the few reports available suggest no negative impacts on bacterial growth or community richness. Sea ice ecosystems are ephemeral, melting and re-forming each year. Thus, for some part of each year organisms inhabiting the ice must also survive outside of the ice, either as part of the phytoplankton or as resting spores on the bottom. During these times, they will be exposed to the full range of co-stressors that pelagic organisms experience. Their ability to continue to make

Overview of Icing Research at NASA Glenn

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreeger, Richard E.

2013-01-01

The aviation industry continues to deal with icing-related incidents and accidents on a regular basis. Air traffic continues to increase, placing more aircraft in adverse icing conditions more frequently and for longer periods. Icing conditions once considered rare or of little consequence, such as super-cooled large droplet icing or high altitude ice crystals, have emerged as major concerns for modern aviation. Because of this, there is a need to better understand the atmospheric environment, the fundamental mechanisms and characteristics of ice growth, and the aerodynamic effects due to icing, as well as how best to protect these aircraft. The icing branch at NASA Glenn continues to develop icing simulation methods and engineering tools to address current aviation safety issues in airframe, engine and rotorcraft icing.

Sea ice and pollution-modulated changes in Greenland ice core methanesulfonate and bromine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, Olivia J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Grieman, Mackenzie; Layman, Lawrence; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pasteris, Daniel; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Saltzman, Eric; Sigl, Michael

2017-01-01

Reconstruction of past changes in Arctic sea ice extent may be critical for understanding its future evolution. Methanesulfonate (MSA) and bromine concentrations preserved in ice cores have both been proposed as indicators of past sea ice conditions. In this study, two ice cores from central and north-eastern Greenland were analysed at sub-annual resolution for MSA (CH3SO3H) and bromine, covering the time period 1750-2010. We examine correlations between ice core MSA and the HadISST1 ICE sea ice dataset and consult back trajectories to infer the likely source regions. A strong correlation between the low-frequency MSA and bromine records during pre-industrial times indicates that both chemical species are likely linked to processes occurring on or near sea ice in the same source regions. The positive correlation between ice core MSA and bromine persists until the mid-20th century, when the acidity of Greenland ice begins to increase markedly due to increased fossil fuel emissions. After that time, MSA levels decrease as a result of declining sea ice extent but bromine levels increase. We consider several possible explanations and ultimately suggest that increased acidity, specifically nitric acid, of snow on sea ice stimulates the release of reactive Br from sea ice, resulting in increased transport and deposition on the Greenland ice sheet.

Continuous decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Japan despite a continuous and marked rise in total cholesterol: Japanese experience after the Seven Countries Study.

PubMed

Sekikawa, Akira; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Miura, Katsuyuki; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Willcox, Bradley J; Masaki, Kamal H; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Tracy, Russell P; Okamura, Tomonori; Kuller, Lewis H

2015-10-01

The Seven Countries Study in the 1960s showed very low mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Japan, which was attributed to very low levels of total cholesterol. Studies of migrant Japanese to the USA in the 1970s documented increase in CHD rates, thus CHD mortality in Japan was expected to increase as their lifestyle became Westernized, yet CHD mortality has continued to decline since 1970. This study describes trends in CHD mortality and its risk factors since 1980 in Japan, contrasting those in other selected developed countries. We selected Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the USA. CHD mortality between 1980 and 2007 was obtained from WHO Statistical Information System. National data on traditional risk factors during the same period were obtained from literature and national surveys. Age-adjusted CHD mortality continuously declined between 1980 and 2007 in all these countries. The decline was accompanied by a constant fall in total cholesterol except Japan where total cholesterol continuously rose. In the birth cohort of individuals currently aged 50-69 years, levels of total cholesterol have been higher in Japan than in the USA, yet CHD mortality in Japan remained the lowest: >67% lower in men and > 75% lower in women compared with the USA. The direction and magnitude of changes in other risk factors were generally similar between Japan and the other countries. Decline in CHD mortality despite a continuous rise in total cholesterol is unique. The observation may suggest some protective factors unique to Japanese. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Durner, George M.; Anderson-Sprecher, R.; Albeke, Shannon E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, M.

2015-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation.

Loss of connectivity among island-dwelling Peary caribou following sea ice decline.

PubMed

Jenkins, Deborah A; Lecomte, Nicolas; Schaefer, James A; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Côté, Steeve D; Pellissier, Loïc; Yannic, Glenn

2016-09-01

Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20-77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability. © 2016 The Author(s).

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Continued decline in blood collection and transfusion in the United States–2015

PubMed Central

Ellingson, Katherine D.; Sapiano, Mathew R. P.; Haass, Kathryn A.; Savinkina, Alexandra A.; Baker, Misha L.; Chung, Koo-Whang; Henry, Richard A.; Berger, James J.; Kuehnert, Matthew J.; Basavaraju, Sridhar V.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND In 2011 and 2013, the National Blood Collection and Utilization Survey (NBCUS) revealed declines in blood collection and transfusion in the United States. The objective of this study was to describe blood services in 2015. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS The 2015 NBCUS was distributed to all US blood collection centers, all hospitals performing at least 1000 surgeries annually, and a 40% random sample of hospitals performing 100 to 999 surgeries annually. Weighting and imputation were used to generate national estimates for units of blood and components collected, deferred, distributed, transfused, and outdated. RESULTS Response rates for the 2015 NBCUS were 78.4% for blood collection centers and 73.9% for transfusing hospitals. In 2015, 12,591,000 units of red blood cells (RBCs) (95% confidence interval [CI], 11,985,000–13,197,000 units of RBCs) were collected, and 11,349,000 (95% CI, 10,592,000–11,747,000) were transfused, representing declines since 2013 of 11.6% and 13.9%, respectively. Total platelet units distributed (2,436,000; 95% CI, 2,230,000–2,642,000) and transfused (1,983,000; 95% CI, 1,816,000=2,151,000) declined by 0.5% and 13.1%, respectively, since 2013. Plasma distributions (3,714,000; 95% CI, 3,306,000–4,121,000) and transfusions (2,727,000; 95% CI, 2,594,000–2,859,000) in 2015 declined since 2013. The median price paid per unit in 2015—$211 for leukocyte-reduced RBCs, $524 for apheresis platelets, and $54 for fresh frozen plasma—was less for all components than in 2013. CONCLUSIONS The 2015 NBCUS findings suggest that continued declines in demand for blood products resulted in fewer units collected and distributed Maintaining a blood inventory sufficient to meet routine and emergent demands will require further monitoring and understanding of these trends. PMID:28591469

Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, Harry L.; Laidre, Kristin L.

2016-09-01

Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology - the cycle of biological events - is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979-2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from -3 to -9 days decade-1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade-1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of -7 to -19 days decade-1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June-October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from -1 to -9 percent decade-1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Recovering Paleo-Records from Antarctic Ice-Cores by Coupling a Continuous Melting Device and Fast Ion Chromatography.

PubMed

Severi, Mirko; Becagli, Silvia; Traversi, Rita; Udisti, Roberto

2015-11-17

Recently, the increasing interest in the understanding of global climatic changes and on natural processes related to climate yielded the development and improvement of new analytical methods for the analysis of environmental samples. The determination of trace chemical species is a useful tool in paleoclimatology, and the techniques for the analysis of ice cores have evolved during the past few years from laborious measurements on discrete samples to continuous techniques allowing higher temporal resolution, higher sensitivity and, above all, higher throughput. Two fast ion chromatographic (FIC) methods are presented. The first method was able to measure Cl(-), NO3(-) and SO4(2-) in a melter-based continuous flow system separating the three analytes in just 1 min. The second method (called Ultra-FIC) was able to perform a single chromatographic analysis in just 30 s and the resulting sampling resolution was 1.0 cm with a typical melting rate of 4.0 cm min(-1). Both methods combine the accuracy, precision, and low detection limits of ion chromatography with the enhanced speed and high depth resolution of continuous melting systems. Both methods have been tested and validated with the analysis of several hundred meters of different ice cores. In particular, the Ultra-FIC method was used to reconstruct the high-resolution SO4(2-) profile of the last 10,000 years for the EDML ice core, allowing the counting of the annual layers, which represents a key point in dating these kind of natural archives.

Predictors of Residual Renal Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis

PubMed Central

Szeto, Cheuk-Chun; Kwan, Bonnie Ching-Ha; Chow, Kai-Ming; Chung, Sebastian; Yu, Vincent; Cheng, Phyllis Mei-Shan; Leung, Chi-Bon; Law, Man-Ching; Li, Philip Kam-Tao

2015-01-01

♦ Background: Residual renal function (RRF) is an important prognostic indicator in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. We determined the predictors of RRF loss in a cohort of incident CAPD patients. ♦ Methods: We reviewed the record of 645 incident CAPD patients. RRF loss is represented by the slope of decline of residual glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as well as the time to anuria. ♦ Results: The average rate of residual GFR decline was -0.083 ± 0.094 mL/min/month. The rate of residual GFR decline was faster with a higher proteinuria (r = -0.506, p < 0.0001) and baseline residual GFR (r = -0.560, p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis showed that proteinuria, baseline residual GFR, and the use of diuretics were independent predictors of residual GFR decline. Cox proportional hazard model showed that proteinuria, glucose exposure, and the number of peritonitis episodes were independent predictors of progression to anuria, while a higher baseline GFR was protective. Each 1 g/day of proteinuria is associated with a 13.2% increase in the risk of progressing to anuria, each 10 g/day higher glucose exposure is associated with a 2.5% increase in risk, while each peritonitis episode confers a 3.8% increase in risk. ♦ Conclusions: Our study shows that factors predicting the loss of residual solute clearance and urine output are different. Proteinuria, baseline residual GFR, and the use of diuretics are independently related to the rate of RRF decline in CAPD patients, while proteinuria, glucose exposure, and the number of peritonitis episodes are independent predictors for the development of anuria. The role of anti-proteinuric therapy and measures to prevent peritonitis episodes in the preservation of RRF should be tested in future studies. PMID:24497594

Animal physiology. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings.

PubMed

Whiteman, J P; Harlow, H J; Durner, G M; Anderson-Sprecher, R; Albeke, S E; Regehr, E V; Amstrup, S C; Ben-David, M

2015-07-17

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of "ice" bears in summer is unknown, "shore" bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global warming releases microplastic legacy frozen in Arctic Sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obbard, Rachel W.; Sadri, Saeed; Wong, Ying Qi; Khitun, Alexandra A.; Baker, Ian; Thompson, Richard C.

2014-06-01

When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic Sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. (2002), suggest that the decline in Arctic Sea ice volume (3.4% per decade) will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al. (2013) have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic Sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.

Snow and ice in a changing hydrological world.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, M.F.

1983-01-01

Snow cover on land (especially in the Northern Hemisphere) and sea ice (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) vary seasonally, and this seasonal change has an important affect on the world climate because snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation efficiently and affect other heat flow processes between atmosphere and land or ocean. Glaciers, including ice sheets, store most of the fresh water on Earth, but change dimensions relatively slowly. There is no clear evidence that the glacier ice volume currently is declining, but more needs to be known about mountain glacier and ice sheet mass balances. -from Author

Coupling of Waves, Turbulence and Thermodynamics Across the Marginal Ice Zone

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

under-predict the observed trend of declining sea ice area over the last decade. A potential explanation for this under-prediction is that models...are missing important feedbacks within the ocean- ice system. Results from the proposed research will contribute to improving the upper ocean and sea ...and solar-radiation-driven thermodynamic forcing in the marginal ice zone. Within the MIZ, the ocean- ice - albedo feedback mechanism is coupled to ice

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice.

PubMed

Regehr, Eric V; Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Amstrup, Steven C; Stirling, Ian

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0.96-0.99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0.73-0.79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

ICE911 Research: Preserving and Rebuilding Reflective Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, L. A.; Chetty, S.; Manzara, A.; Venkatesh, S.

2014-12-01

We have developed a localized surface albedo modification technique that shows promise as a method to increase reflective multi-year ice using floating materials, chosen so as to have low subsidiary environmental impact. It is now well-known that multi-year reflective ice has diminished rapidly in the Arctic over the past 3 decades and this plays a part in the continuing rapid decrease of summer-time ice. As summer-time bright ice disappears, the Arctic is losing its ability to reflect summer insolation, and this has widespread climatic effects, as well as a direct effect on sea level rise, as oceans heat and once-land-based ice melts into the sea. We have tested the albedo modification technique on a small scale over six Winter/Spring seasons at sites including California's Sierra Nevada Mountains, a Canadian lake, and a small man-made lake in Minnesota, using various materials and an evolving array of instrumentation. The materials can float and can be made to minimize effects on marine habitat and species. The instrumentation is designed to be deployed in harsh and remote locations. Localized snow and ice preservation, and reductions in water heating, have been quantified in small-scale testing. We have continued to refine our material and deployment approaches, and we have had laboratory confirmation by NASA. In the field, the materials were successfully deployed to shield underlying snow and ice from melting; applications of granular materials remained stable in the face of local wind and storms. We are evaluating the effects of snow and ice preservation for protection of infrastructure and habitat stabilization, and we are concurrently developing our techniques to aid in water conservation. Localized albedo modification options such as those being studied in this work may act to preserve ice, glaciers, permafrost and seasonal snow areas, and perhaps aid natural ice formation processes. If this method is deployed on a large enough scale, it could conceivably

A Decade of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Change from Airborne and Satellite Altimetry (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, S. L.; Richter-Menge, J.; Kurtz, N. T.; McAdoo, D. C.; Newman, T.; Zwally, H.; Ruth, J.

2013-12-01

Altimeters on both airborne and satellite platforms provide direct measurements of sea ice freeboard from which sea ice thickness may be calculated. Satellite altimetry observations of Arctic sea ice from ICESat and CryoSat-2 indicate a significant decline in ice thickness, and volume, over the last decade. During this time the ice pack has experienced a rapid change in its composition, transitioning from predominantly thick, multi-year ice to thinner, increasingly seasonal ice. We will discuss the regional trends in ice thickness derived from ICESat and IceBridge altimetry between 2003 and 2013, contrasting observations of the multi-year ice pack with seasonal ice zones. ICESat ceased operation in 2009, and the final, reprocessed data set became available recently. We extend our analysis to April 2013 using data from the IceBridge airborne mission, which commenced operations in 2009. We describe our current efforts to more accurately convert from freeboard to ice thickness, with a modified methodology that corrects for range errors, instrument biases, and includes an enhanced treatment of snow depth, with respect to ice type. With the planned launch by NASA of ICESat-2 in 2016 we can expect continuity of the sea ice thickness time series through the end of this decade. Data from the ICESat-2 mission, together with ongoing observations from CryoSat-2, will allow us to understand both the decadal trends and inter-annual variability in the Arctic sea ice thickness record. We briefly present the status of planned ICESat-2 sea ice data products, and demonstrate the utility of micro-pulse, photon-counting laser altimetry over sea ice.

Ocean Profile Measurements During the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys Ocean Profiles

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

repeated ocean, ice, and atmospheric measurements across the Beaufort-Chukchi sea seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ) utilizing US Coast Guard Arctic Domain...contributing to the rapid decline in summer ice extent that has occurred in recent years. The SIZ is the region between maximum winter sea ice extent and...minimum summer sea ice extent. As such, it contains the full range of positions of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) where sea ice interacts with open water

Multi-decadal Arctic sea ice roughness.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsamados, M.; Stroeve, J.; Kharbouche, S.; Muller, J. P., , Prof; Nolin, A. W.; Petty, A.; Haas, C.; Girard-Ardhuin, F.; Landy, J.

2017-12-01

The transformation of Arctic sea ice from mainly perennial, multi-year ice to a seasonal, first-year ice is believed to have been accompanied by a reduction of the roughness of the ice cover surface. This smoothening effect has been shown to (i) modify the momentum and heat transfer between the atmosphere and ocean, (ii) to alter the ice thickness distribution which in turn controls the snow and melt pond repartition over the ice cover, and (iii) to bias airborne and satellite remote sensing measurements that depend on the scattering and reflective characteristics over the sea ice surface topography. We will review existing and novel remote sensing methodologies proposed to estimate sea ice roughness, ranging from airborne LIDAR measurement (ie Operation IceBridge), to backscatter coefficients from scatterometers (ASCAT, QUICKSCAT), to multi angle maging spectroradiometer (MISR), and to laser (Icesat) and radar altimeters (Envisat, Cryosat, Altika, Sentinel-3). We will show that by comparing and cross-calibrating these different products we can offer a consistent multi-mission, multi-decadal view of the declining sea ice roughness. Implications for sea ice physics, climate and remote sensing will also be discussed.

Variations in the Arctic's multiyear sea ice cover: A neural network analysis of SMMR-SSM/I data, 1979-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Eremeev, V.A.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2005-01-01

A 26-year (1979-2004) observational record of January multiyear sea ice distributions, derived from neural network analysis of SMMR-SSM/I passive microwave satellite data, reveals dense and persistent cover in the central Arctic basin surrounded by expansive regions of highly fluctuating interannual cover. Following a decade of quasi equilibrium, precipitous declines in multiyear ice area commenced in 1989 when the Arctic Oscillation shifted to a pronounced positive phase. Although extensive survival of first-year ice during autumn 1996 fully replenished the area of multiyear ice, a subsequent and accelerated decline returned the depletion to record lows. The most dramatic multiyear sea ice declines occurred in the East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

Icing flight research: Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes was obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft darg coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (C sub d) of 0.5.

Icing flight research - Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes were obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft drag coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (c sub d) of 0.5.

Leads in Arctic pack ice enable early phytoplankton blooms below snow-covered sea ice

PubMed Central

Assmy, Philipp; Fernández-Méndez, Mar; Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Randelhoff, Achim; Mundy, Christopher J.; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Bailey, Allison; Chierici, Melissa; Cohen, Lana; Doulgeris, Anthony P.; Ehn, Jens K.; Fransson, Agneta; Gerland, Sebastian; Hop, Haakon; Hudson, Stephen R.; Hughes, Nick; Itkin, Polona; Johnsen, Geir; King, Jennifer A.; Koch, Boris P.; Koenig, Zoe; Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Laney, Samuel R.; Nicolaus, Marcel; Pavlov, Alexey K.; Polashenski, Christopher M.; Provost, Christine; Rösel, Anja; Sandbu, Marthe; Spreen, Gunnar; Smedsrud, Lars H.; Sundfjord, Arild; Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Tatarek, Agnieszka; Wiktor, Jozef; Wagner, Penelope M.; Wold, Anette; Steen, Harald; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-01-01

The Arctic icescape is rapidly transforming from a thicker multiyear ice cover to a thinner and largely seasonal first-year ice cover with significant consequences for Arctic primary production. One critical challenge is to understand how productivity will change within the next decades. Recent studies have reported extensive phytoplankton blooms beneath ponded sea ice during summer, indicating that satellite-based Arctic annual primary production estimates may be significantly underestimated. Here we present a unique time-series of a phytoplankton spring bloom observed beneath snow-covered Arctic pack ice. The bloom, dominated by the haptophyte algae Phaeocystis pouchetii, caused near depletion of the surface nitrate inventory and a decline in dissolved inorganic carbon by 16 ± 6 g C m−2. Ocean circulation characteristics in the area indicated that the bloom developed in situ despite the snow-covered sea ice. Leads in the dynamic ice cover provided added sunlight necessary to initiate and sustain the bloom. Phytoplankton blooms beneath snow-covered ice might become more common and widespread in the future Arctic Ocean with frequent lead formation due to thinner and more dynamic sea ice despite projected increases in high-Arctic snowfall. This could alter productivity, marine food webs and carbon sequestration in the Arctic Ocean. PMID:28102329

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, E.V.; Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings

Intra-articular knee temperature changes: ice versus cryotherapy device.

PubMed

Warren, Todd A; McCarty, Eric C; Richardson, Airron L; Michener, Todd; Spindler, Kurt P

2004-03-01

Cryotherapy is commonly applied without research documenting the intra-articular (IA) temperature changes or subject discomfort between ice and a cryotherapy device. The null hypothesis is that no difference would be observed in IA temperature decline or subject tolerance between ice and the cryotherapy device in normal knees. Prospective, within-subject controlled clinical trial. Twelve subjects had IA temperature in suprapatellar pouch and skin recorded bilaterally after application of cryotherapy versus ice. Subject tolerance was recorded by 10-cm visual analog scale (VAS). Statistical evaluation was by Spearman's correlation analysis and paired, nonparametric Wilcoxon's signed rank test. Both significantly lowered (P < 0.001) skin and IA temperature with median decreases (ice/cryotherapy) at 30 (3.3 degrees C/2.2 degrees C), 60 (12.8 degrees C/7.1 degrees C), and 90 (15.2 degrees C/9.7 degrees C) minutes. However, ice lowered the IA temperature significantly more than the cryotherapy device (P < 0.001) and was more painful by VAS at 30 and 60 minutes (P < 0.01). Both methods produced large declines in skin and IA temperatures. However, ice was more effective yet resulted in higher pain scores. The authors hypothesize that IA temperatures below a threshold are associated with increased perceived pain.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE PAGES

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; ...

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

2013-01-01

Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

Carbon budget of sea-ice algae in spring: Evidence of a significant transfer to zooplankton grazers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, C.; Legendre, L.; Ingram, R. G.; Gosselin, M.; Levasseur, M.

1996-08-01

The fate of ice-bottom algae, before and after release from the first-year sea ice into the water column, was assessed during the period of ice-algal growth and decline in Resolute Passage (Canadian Arctic). During spring 1992 (from April to June), algae in the bottom ice layer and those suspended and sinking in the upper water column (top 15 m) were sampled approximately every 4 days. Ice-bottom chlorophyll a reached a maximum concentration of 160 mg m-2 in mid-May, after which it decreased to lower values. In the water column, chlorophyll a concentrations were low until the period of ice-algal decline (˜0.1 mg m-3), with most biomass in the <5-μm fraction. In both the suspended and sinking material, large increases of algal biomass occurred at the beginning of June, following the release of ice-algae into the water column. The input of ice-algal derived carbon to the upper water column and the proportions exported through sinking or remaining in suspension were assessed using a carbon budget for the two periods of ice-algal growth and decline. For each period the output terms closely balanced the input. The carbon budget showed that most of the biomass introduced into the upper water column remained suspended (>65% of total export) and that ice-algae were ingested by under-ice grazers after release from the ice. These results stress the importance of ice algae for pelagic consumers during the early stages of ice melt and show that the transfer of ice algae to higher trophic levels extends beyond the period of maximum algal production in the ice bottom.

Monitoring ice thickness and elastic properties from the measurement of leaky guided waves: A laboratory experiment.

PubMed

Moreau, Ludovic; Lachaud, Cédric; Théry, Romain; Predoi, Mihai V; Marsan, David; Larose, Eric; Weiss, Jérôme; Montagnat, Maurine

2017-11-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most spectacular signatures of global warming, and studies converge to show that this decline has been accelerating over the last four decades, with a rate that is not reproduced by climate models. To improve these models, relying on comprehensive and accurate field data is essential. While sea ice extent and concentration are accurately monitored from microwave imagery, an accurate measure of its thickness is still lacking. Moreover, measuring observables related to the mechanical behavior of the ice (such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, etc.) could provide better insights in the understanding of sea ice decline, by completing current knowledge so far acquired mostly from radar and sonar data. This paper aims at demonstrating on the laboratory scale that these can all be estimated simultaneously by measuring seismic waves guided in the ice layer. The experiment consisted of leaving a water tank in a cold room in order to grow an ice layer at its surface. While its thickness was increasing, ultrasonic guided waves were generated with a piezoelectric source, and measurements were subsequently inverted to infer the thickness and mechanical properties of the ice with very good accuracy.

Hickory decline and mortality: Update on hickory decline research

Treesearch

Jennifer Juzwik; Ji-Huyn Park; Linda Haugen

2010-01-01

Research continued through the 2010 field season on the etiology of hickory decline that is characterized by thinning crowns with small, yellow leaves and hickory bark beetle attack on the upper main stem. This research is part of a larger project initiated in 2006 to assess the distribution and determine the cause(s) of Forest Health Monitoring reported decline and...

Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedstone, Andrew J.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Cook, Joseph M.; Williamson, Christopher J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Hodson, Andrew J.; Tranter, Martyn

2017-11-01

Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of dark ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June-July-August, JJA), intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by outcropping of particulates from

Amazonian mid- to high-latitude glaciation on Mars: Supply-limited ice sources, ice accumulation patterns, and concentric crater fill glacial flow and ice sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, James L.; Head, James W.

2014-02-01

Crater deposit thicknesses (~50 m) cannot fill the craters in a time period compatible with the interpreted formation times of the Pedestal Crater mantled ice layers. We use a representative obliquity solution to drive an ice flow model and show that a cyclical pattern of multiply recurring layers can both fill the craters with a significant volume of ice, as well as transport debris from the crater walls out into the central regions of the craters. The cyclical pattern of waxing and waning mantling layers results in a rippled pattern of surface debris extending out into the crater interiors that would manifest itself as an observable concentric pattern, comparable in appearance to concentric crater fill. In this scenario, the formation of mantling sublimation till layers seals the accumulating ice and sequesters it from significant temperature variations at diurnal, annual and spin-axis/orbital cycle time scales, to produce ancient ice records preserved today below CCF crater floors. Lack of meltwater features associated with concentric crater fill provides evidence that the Late Amazonian climate did not exceed the melting temperature in the mid- to high-latitudes for any significant period of time. Continued sequestration of ice with time in CCF and related deposits (lobate debris aprons and lineated valley fill) further reduces the already supply-limited polar ice sources, suggesting that there has been a declining reservoir of available ice with each ensuing glacial period. Together, these deposits represent a candidate library of climate chemistry and global change dating from the Late Amazonian, and a non-polar water resource for future exploration.

Atmospheric influences on the anomalous 2016 Antarctic sea ice decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, Elisabeth; Haumann, F. Alexander; Raphael, Marilyn N.

2018-03-01

In contrast to the Arctic, where total sea ice extent (SIE) has been decreasing for the last three decades, Antarctic SIE has shown a small, but significant, increase during the same time period. However, in 2016, an unusually early onset of the melt season was observed; the maximum Antarctic SIE was already reached as early as August rather than the end of September, and was followed by a rapid decrease. The decay was particularly strong in November, when Antarctic SIE exhibited a negative anomaly (compared to the 1979-2015 average) of approximately 2 million km2. ECMWF Interim reanalysis data showed that the early onset of the melt and the rapid decrease in sea ice area (SIA) and SIE were associated with atmospheric flow patterns related to a positive zonal wave number three (ZW3) index, i.e., synoptic situations leading to strong meridional flow and anomalously strong southward heat advection in the regions of strongest sea ice decline. A persistently positive ZW3 index from May to August suggests that SIE decrease was preconditioned by SIA decrease. In particular, in the first third of November northerly flow conditions in the Weddell Sea and the Western Pacific triggered accelerated sea ice decay, which was continued in the following weeks due to positive feedback effects, leading to the unusually low November SIE. In 2016, the monthly mean Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index reached its second lowest November value since the beginning of the satellite observations. A better spatial and temporal coverage of reliable ice thickness data is needed to assess the change in ice mass rather than ice area.

Development of a balloon-borne device for analysis of high-altitude ice and aerosol particulates: Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boaggio, K.; Bandamede, M.; Bancroft, L.; Hurler, K.; Magee, N. B.

2016-12-01

We report on details of continuing instrument development and deployment of a novel balloon-borne device for capturing and characterizing atmospheric ice and aerosol particles, the Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball). The device is designed to capture and preserve cirrus ice particles, maintaining them at cold equilibrium temperatures, so that high-altitude particles can recovered, transferred intact, and then imaged under SEM at an unprecedented resolution (approximately 3 nm maximum resolution). In addition to cirrus ice particles, high altitude aerosol particles are also captured, imaged, and analyzed for geometry, chemical composition, and activity as ice nucleating particles. Prototype versions of ICE-Ball have successfully captured and preserved high altitude ice particles and aerosols, then returned them for recovery and SEM imaging and analysis. New improvements include 1) ability to capture particles from multiple narrowly-defined altitudes on a single payload, 2) high quality measurements of coincident temperature, humidity, and high-resolution video at capture altitude, 3) ability to capture particles during both ascent and descent, 4) better characterization of particle collection volume and collection efficiency, and 5) improved isolation and characterization of capture-cell cryo environment. This presentation provides detailed capability specifications for anyone interested in using measurements, collaborating on continued instrument development, or including this instrument in ongoing or future field campaigns.

Employer-sponsored health insurance coverage continues to decline in a new decade.

PubMed

Gould, Elise

2013-01-01

Most Americans, particularly those under age 65, rely on health insurance offered through the workplace. Given continuing high unemployment, it comes as no surprise that the share of Americans under age 65 covered by employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) eroded for the 11th year in a row in 2011, falling from 58.6 percent in 2010 to 58.3 percent. The situation started deteriorating long before the Great Recession: the share of Americans under age 65 covered by ESI eroded every year from 2000 to 2011, decreasing by a total of 10.9 percentage points. As many as 29 million more people under age 65 would have had ESI in 2011 if the coverage rate had remained at the 2000 level. The decline in ESI coverage has been accompanied by an overall decline in health insurance coverage. The number of uninsured non-elderly Americans was 47.9 million in 2011--11.7 million higher than in 2000. Increasing public insurance coverage, particularly among children, is the only reason the uninsured rate did not rise one-for-one with losses in ESI. In addition, key components in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act took effect in 2010, shielding young adults from further coverage losses.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

High-resolution continuous flow analysis setup for water isotopic measurement from ice cores using laser spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuelsson, B. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Keller, E. D.; Gkinis, V.

2014-12-01

Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotopes (δ18O and δD) continuous flow measurements. It is the first continuous flow laser spectroscopy system that is using Off-Axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy (OA-ICOS; analyzer manufactured by Los Gatos Research - LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze sample from an ice core. A Water Vapor Isotopic Standard Source (WVISS) calibration unit, manufactured by LGR, was modified to: (1) increase the temporal resolution by reducing the response time (2) enable measurements on several water standards, and (3) to reduce the influence from memory effects. While this setup was designed for the Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) of ice cores, it can also continuously analyze other liquid or vapor sources. The modified setup provides a shorter response time (~54 and 18 s for 2013 and 2014 setup, respectively) compared to the original WVISS unit (~62 s), which is an improvement in measurement resolution. Another improvement compared to the original WVISS is that the modified setup has a reduced memory effect. Stability tests comparing the modified WVISS and WVISS setups were performed and Allan deviations (σAllan) were calculated to determine precision at different averaging times. For the 2013 modified setup the precision after integration times of 103 s are 0.060 and 0.070‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. For the WVISS setup the corresponding σAllan values are 0.030, 0.060 and 0.043‰ for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. For the WVISS setup the precision is 0.035, 0.070 and 0.042‰ after 103 s for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. Both the modified setups and WVISS setup are influenced by instrumental drift with δ18O being more drift sensitive than δD. The σAllan values for δ18O of 0.30 and 0.18‰ for the modified (2013) and WVISS setup, respectively after averaging times of 104 s (2.78 h). The Isotopic Water Analyzer (IWA)-modified WVISS setup used during the

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2011-01-01

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manucharyan, Georgy E.; Thompson, Andrew F.

2017-12-01

Signatures of ocean eddies, fronts, and filaments are commonly observed within marginal ice zones (MIZs) from satellite images of sea ice concentration, and in situ observations via ice-tethered profilers or underice gliders. However, localized and intermittent sea ice heating and advection by ocean eddies are currently not accounted for in climate models and may contribute to their biases and errors in sea ice forecasts. Here, we explore mechanical sea ice interactions with underlying submesoscale ocean turbulence. We demonstrate that the release of potential energy stored in meltwater fronts can lead to energetic submesoscale motions along MIZs with spatial scales O(10 km) and Rossby numbers O(1). In low-wind conditions, cyclonic eddies and filaments efficiently trap the sea ice and advect it over warmer surface ocean waters where it can effectively melt. The horizontal eddy diffusivity of sea ice mass and heat across the MIZ can reach O(200 m2 s-1). Submesoscale ocean variability also induces large vertical velocities (order 10 m d-1) that can bring relatively warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer. The ocean-sea ice heat fluxes are localized over cyclonic eddies and filaments reaching about 100 W m-2. We speculate that these submesoscale-driven intermittent fluxes of heat and sea ice can contribute to the seasonal evolution of MIZs. With the continuing global warming and sea ice thickness reduction in the Arctic Ocean, submesoscale sea ice-ocean processes are expected to become increasingly prominent.

Temporal variability in arctic fox diet as reflected in stable-carbon isotopes; the importance of sea ice.

PubMed

Roth, James D

2002-09-01

Consumption of marine foods by terrestrial predators can lead to increased predator densities, potentially impacting their terrestrial resources. For arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus), access to such marine foods in winter depends on sea ice, which is threatened by global climate change. To quantify the importance of marine foods (seal carrion and seal pups) and document temporal variation in arctic fox diet I measured the ratios of the stable isotopes of carbon ((13)C/(12)C) in hair of arctic foxes near Cape Churchill, Manitoba, from 1994 to 1997. These hair samples were compared to the stable carbon isotope ratios of several prey species. Isotopic differences between seasonally dimorphic pelage types indicated a diet with a greater marine content in winter when sea ice provided access to seal carrion. Annual variation in arctic fox diet in both summer and winter was correlated with lemming abundance. Marine food sources became much more important in winters with low lemming populations, accounting for nearly half of the winter protein intake following a lemming decline. Potential alternative summer foods with isotopic signatures differing from lemmings included goose eggs and caribou, but these were unavailable in winter. Reliance on marine food sources in winter during periods of low lemming density demonstrates the importance of the sea ice as a potential habitat for this arctic fox population and suggests that a continued decline in sea ice extent will disrupt an important link between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Submesoscale sea ice-ocean interactions in marginal ice zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. F.; Manucharyan, G.

2017-12-01

Signatures of ocean eddies, fronts and filaments are commonly observed within the marginal ice zones (MIZ) from satellite images of sea ice concentration, in situ observations via ice-tethered profilers or under-ice gliders. Localized and intermittent sea ice heating and advection by ocean eddies are currently not accounted for in climate models and may contribute to their biases and errors in sea ice forecasts. Here, we explore mechanical sea ice interactions with underlying submesoscale ocean turbulence via a suite of numerical simulations. We demonstrate that the release of potential energy stored in meltwater fronts can lead to energetic submesoscale motions along MIZs with sizes O(10 km) and Rossby numbers O(1). In low-wind conditions, cyclonic eddies and filaments efficiently trap the sea ice and advect it over warmer surface ocean waters where it can effectively melt. The horizontal eddy diffusivity of sea ice mass and heat across the MIZ can reach O(200 m2 s-1). Submesoscale ocean variability also induces large vertical velocities (order of 10 m day-1) that can bring relatively warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer. The ocean-sea ice heat fluxes are localized over cyclonic eddies and filaments reaching about 100 W m-2. We speculate that these submesoscale-driven intermittent fluxes of heat and sea ice can potentially contribute to the seasonal evolution of MIZs. With continuing global warming and sea ice thickness reduction in the Arctic Ocean, as well as the large expanse of thin sea ice in the Southern Ocean, submesoscale sea ice-ocean processes are expected to play a significant role in the climate system.

Ocean-Forced Ice-Shelf Thinning in a Synchronously Coupled Ice-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, James R.; Holland, Paul R.; Goldberg, Dan; Snow, Kate; Arthern, Robert; Campin, Jean-Michel; Heimbach, Patrick; Jenkins, Adrian

2018-02-01

The first fully synchronous, coupled ice shelf-ocean model with a fixed grounding line and imposed upstream ice velocity has been developed using the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model). Unlike previous, asynchronous, approaches to coupled modeling our approach is fully conservative of heat, salt, and mass. Synchronous coupling is achieved by continuously updating the ice-shelf thickness on the ocean time step. By simulating an idealized, warm-water ice shelf we show how raising the pycnocline leads to a reduction in both ice-shelf mass and back stress, and hence buttressing. Coupled runs show the formation of a western boundary channel in the ice-shelf base due to increased melting on the western boundary due to Coriolis enhanced flow. Eastern boundary ice thickening is also observed. This is not the case when using a simple depth-dependent parameterized melt, as the ice shelf has relatively thinner sides and a thicker central "bulge" for a given ice-shelf mass. Ice-shelf geometry arising from the parameterized melt rate tends to underestimate backstress (and therefore buttressing) for a given ice-shelf mass due to a thinner ice shelf at the boundaries when compared to coupled model simulations.

Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Scott E. Sink; Paul E. Hennon; David V. D' Amore; Glenn P. Juday

2008-01-01

Decline of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis((D. Don) Spach) has occurred on 200 000 ha of temperate rainforests across southeastern Alaska. Because declining forests appeared soon after the Little Ice Age and are limited mostly to low elevations (whereas higher elevation forests remain healthy), recent studies have hypothesized a climatic...

Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Scot E. Sink; Paul E. Hennon; David V. D' amore; Glenn P. Juday

2008-01-01

Decline of yellow-cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis D. Don) Spach) has occurred on 200 000 ha of temperate rainforests across southeastern Alaska. Because declining forests appeared soon after the Little Ice Age and are limited mostly to low elevations (whereas higher elevation forests remain healthy), recent studies have hypothesized a climatic...

21 CFR 1250.43 - Ice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Ice. 1250.43 Section 1250.43 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS UNDER CERTAIN... and Operation of Land and Air Conveyances § 1250.43 Ice. Ice shall not be permitted to come in contact...

21 CFR 1250.43 - Ice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Ice. 1250.43 Section 1250.43 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS UNDER CERTAIN... and Operation of Land and Air Conveyances § 1250.43 Ice. Ice shall not be permitted to come in contact...

21 CFR 1250.43 - Ice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Ice. 1250.43 Section 1250.43 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS UNDER CERTAIN... and Operation of Land and Air Conveyances § 1250.43 Ice. Ice shall not be permitted to come in contact...

21 CFR 1250.43 - Ice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Ice. 1250.43 Section 1250.43 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS UNDER CERTAIN... and Operation of Land and Air Conveyances § 1250.43 Ice. Ice shall not be permitted to come in contact...

21 CFR 1250.43 - Ice.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Ice. 1250.43 Section 1250.43 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) REGULATIONS UNDER CERTAIN... and Operation of Land and Air Conveyances § 1250.43 Ice. Ice shall not be permitted to come in contact...

Phytoplankton assemblages and (bio)geochemical proxies indicate enhanced productivity and sea-ice decline in the Ross Sea during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Julian; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Albertazzi, Sonia; Ángeles Bárcena, Mariá; Bijl, Peter; Giglio, Federico; Langone, Leonardo; Peterse, Francien; Tateo, Fabio; Trincardi, Fabio; Asioli, Alessandra

2017-04-01

Sea ice is an important component of the Antarctic cryosphere. It plays an important role in climate (e.g. albedo, gas exchange with the atmosphere), ocean circulation and primary productivity. Although sea ice has been increasing on average around Antarctica as a result of current global climate change, long-term model predictions expect sea ice to decline. To better understand the changes in sea-ice cover and its consequences on the oceanography, biology and geochemistry of the Southern Ocean during on-going and near-future warming it is important to study past periods of global warming, such as the Last Interglacial (LIG, 125-119 ka), also known as Marine Isotope sub-Stage 5e (MIS5e). During MIS5e global temperatures were on average 2°C warmer than present-day, the same temperature set as maximum global warming limit during the recent Paris Agreement (COP21). We investigated changes in sea-ice cover and environmental conditions by means of diatom, palynological, foraminifer and (bio)geochemical data in a sediment core (AS05-10) from the continental slope of the Drygalski Basin, Ross Sea (2377 mbsl) encompassing the MIS5e. The core was collected within the frame of the PNRA 2009/A2.01 project, an Italian project with a multidisciplinary approach, and covers approximately the last 350 kyr according to an age model based on diatom bioevents and cyclostratigraphy. The productivity proxies, e.g., excess barium, magnetic susceptibility and diatom abundances show a strong relation to the glacial-interglacial cycles. The rapid deglaciations preceding MIS5e and MIS7e are characterized by Ice Rafted Debris and the presence of reworked material. Subsequently, each interglacial is characterized by enhanced productivity related to a decrease in annual sea-ice cover. The beginning of each interglacial is also marked by changes in the fossil assemblages and organic geochemical proxies indicative of high nutrient conditions and water column stratification due to fresh water

Antarctic krill under sea ice: elevated abundance in a narrow band just south of ice edge.

PubMed

Brierley, Andrew S; Fernandes, Paul G; Brandon, Mark A; Armstrong, Frederick; Millard, Nicholas W; McPhail, Steven D; Stevenson, Peter; Pebody, Miles; Perrett, James; Squires, Mark; Bone, Douglas G; Griffiths, Gwyn

2002-03-08

We surveyed Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) under sea ice using the autonomous underwater vehicle Autosub-2. Krill were concentrated within a band under ice between 1 and 13 kilometers south of the ice edge. Within this band, krill densities were fivefold greater than that of open water. The under-ice environment has long been considered an important habitat for krill, but sampling difficulties have previously prevented direct observations under ice over the scale necessary for robust krill density estimation. Autosub-2 enabled us to make continuous high-resolution measurements of krill density under ice reaching 27 kilometers beyond the ice edge.

NASA IceBridge: Scientific Insights from Airborne Surveys of the Polar Sea Ice Covers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter-Menge, J.; Farrell, S. L.

2015-12-01

The NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne sea ice surveys are designed to continue a valuable series of sea ice thickness measurements by bridging the gap between NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), which operated from 2003 to 2009, and ICESat-2, which is scheduled for launch in 2017. Initiated in 2009, OIB has conducted campaigns over the western Arctic Ocean (March/April) and Southern Oceans (October/November) on an annual basis when the thickness of sea ice cover is nearing its maximum. More recently, a series of Arctic surveys have also collected observations in the late summer, at the end of the melt season. The Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter is one of OIB's primary sensors, in combination with the Digital Mapping System digital camera, a Ku-band radar altimeter, a frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) snow radar, and a KT-19 infrared radiation pyrometer. Data from the campaigns are available to the research community at: http://nsidc.org/data/icebridge/. This presentation will summarize the spatial and temporal extent of the OIB campaigns and their complementary role in linking in situ and satellite measurements, advancing observations of sea ice processes across all length scales. Key scientific insights gained on the state of the sea ice cover will be highlighted, including snow depth, ice thickness, surface roughness and morphology, and melt pond evolution.

The impact of short-term heat storage on the ice-albedo feedback loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polashenski, C.; Wright, N.; Perovich, D. K.; Song, A.; Deeb, E. J.

2016-12-01

The partitioning of solar energy in the ice-ocean-atmosphere environment is a powerful control over Arctic sea ice mass balance. Ongoing transitions of the sea ice toward a younger, thinner state are enhancing absorption of solar energy and contributing to further declines in sea ice in a classic ice-albedo feedback. Here we investigate the solar energy balance over shorter timescales. In particular, we are concerned with short term delays in the transfer of absorbed solar energy to the ice caused by heat storage in the upper ocean. By delaying the realization of ice melt, and hence albedo decline, heat storage processes effectively retard the intra-season ice-albedo feedback. We seek to quantify the impact and variability of such intra-season storage delays on full season energy absorption. We use in-situ data collected from Arctic Observing Network (AON) sea ice sites, synthesized with the results of imagery processed from high resolution optical satellites, and basin-scale remote sensing products to approach the topic. AON buoys are used to monitor the storage and flux of heat, while satellite imagery allows us to quantify the evolution of surrounding ice conditions and predict the aggregate scale solar absorption. We use several test sites as illustrative cases and demonstrate that temporary heat storage can have substantial impacts on seasonal energy absorption and ice loss. A companion to this work is presented by N. Wright at this meeting.

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

PubMed Central

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

2016-01-01

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

PubMed

Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

2016-02-04

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

High-resolution continuous-flow analysis setup for water isotopic measurement from ice cores using laser spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuelsson, B. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Keller, E. D.; Gkinis, V.

2015-07-01

Here we present an experimental setup for water stable isotope (δ18O and δD) continuous-flow measurements and provide metrics defining the performance of the setup during a major ice core measurement campaign (Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution; RICE). We also use the metrics to compare alternate systems. Our setup is the first continuous-flow laser spectroscopy system that is using off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (OA-ICOS; analyzer manufactured by Los Gatos Research, LGR) in combination with an evaporation unit to continuously analyze water samples from an ice core. A Water Vapor Isotope Standard Source (WVISS) calibration unit, manufactured by LGR, was modified to (1) enable measurements on several water standards, (2) increase the temporal resolution by reducing the response time and (3) reduce the influence from memory effects. While this setup was designed for the continuous-flow analysis (CFA) of ice cores, it can also continuously analyze other liquid or vapor sources. The custom setups provide a shorter response time (~ 54 and 18 s for 2013 and 2014 setup, respectively) compared to the original WVISS unit (~ 62 s), which is an improvement in measurement resolution. Another improvement compared to the original WVISS is that the custom setups have a reduced memory effect. Stability tests comparing the custom and WVISS setups were performed and Allan deviations (σAllan) were calculated to determine precision at different averaging times. For the custom 2013 setup the precision after integration times of 103 s is 0.060 and 0.070 ‰ for δ18O and δD, respectively. The corresponding σAllan values for the custom 2014 setup are 0.030, 0.060 and 0.043 ‰ for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. For the WVISS setup the precision is 0.035, 0.070 and 0.042 ‰ after 103 s for δ18O, δD and δ17O, respectively. Both the custom setups and WVISS setup are influenced by instrumental drift with δ18O being more drift sensitive than δD. The �

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

Ramifications of a potential gap in passive microwave data for the long-term sea ice climate record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W.; Stewart, J. S.

2017-12-01

The time series of sea ice concentration and extent from passive microwave sensors is one of the longest satellite-derived climate records and the significant decline in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most iconic indicators of climate change. However, this continuous and consistent record is under threat due to the looming gap in passive microwave sensor coverage. The record started in late 1978 with the launch of the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and has continued with a series of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. The data from the different sensors are intercalibrated at the algorithm level by adjusting algorithm coefficients so that the output sea ice data is as consistent as possible between the older and the newer sensor. A key aspect in constructing the time series is to have at least two sensors operating simultaneously so that data from the older and newer sensor can be obtained from the same locations. However, with recent losses of the DMSP F19 and F20, the remaining SSMIS sensors are all well beyond their planned mission lifetime. This means that risk of failure is not small and is increasing with each day of operation. The newest passive microwave sensor, the JAXA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR2), is a potential contributor to the time series (though it too is now beyond it's planned 5-year mission lifetime). However, AMSR2's larger antenna and higher spatial resolution presents a challenge in integrating its data with the rest of the sea ice record because the ice edge is quite sensitive to the sensor resolution, which substantially affects the total sea ice extent and area estimates. This will need to be adjusted for if AMSR2 is used to continue the time series. Here we will discuss efforts at NSIDC to integrate AMSR2 estimates into the sea ice climate record if needed. We

Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-08-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.