A Novel Ice Storm Experiment for Evaluating the Ecological Impacts of These Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driscoll, C. T.; Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Fahey, T.; Fahey, R. T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Hawley, G. J.; Schaberg, P. G.

2017-12-01

Ice storms are among the most destructive natural disturbances in some regions of the world, and are an example of an extreme weather event that can profoundly disrupt ecosystem function. Despite potential dire consequences of ice storms on ecosystems and society, we are poorly positioned to predict responses because severe ice storms are infrequent and understudied. Since it is difficult to determine when and where ice storms will occur, most previous research has consisted of ad hoc attempts to characterize impacts in the wake of major icing events. To evaluate ice storm effects in a more controlled manner, we conducted a novel ice storm manipulation experiment at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. Water was sprayed above the forest canopy in sub-freezing conditions to simulate a glaze ice event. Treatments included replicate plots that received three levels of radial ice thickness (6, 13, and 19 mm) and reference plots that were not sprayed. Additionally, two of the mid-level treatment plots received ice applications in back-to-back years to evaluate effects associated with ice storm frequency. Measures of the forest canopy, including hemispherical photography, photosynthetically active radiation, and ground-based LiDAR, indicated that the ice loads clearly damaged vegetation and opened up the canopy, allowing more light to penetrate. These changes in the canopy were reflected in measurements of fine and coarse woody debris that were commensurate with the level of icing. Soil respiration declined in the most heavily damaged plots, which we attribute to changes in root activity. Although soil solution nitrogen showed clear seasonal patterns, there was no treatment response. These results differ from the severe regional natural ice storm of 1998, which caused large leaching losses of nitrate in soil solutions and stream water during the growing season after the event, due to lack of uptake by damaged vegetation. It is not yet clear why there

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui; Brenner, Anita; Bromwich, David

2012-01-01

During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates

Seismic Excitation of the Ross Ice Shelf by Whillans Ice Stream Stick-Slip Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiens, D.; Pratt, M. J.; Aster, R. C.; Nyblade, A.; Bromirski, P. D.; Stephen, R. A.; Gerstoft, P.; Diez, A.; Cai, C.; Anthony, R. E.; Shore, P.

2015-12-01

Rapid variations in the flow rate of upstream glaciers and ice streams may cause significant deformation of ice shelves. The Whillans Ice Stream (WIS) represents an extreme example of rapid variations in velocity, with motions near the grounding line consisting almost entirely of once or twice-daily stick-slip events with a displacement of up to 0.7 m (Winberry et al, 2014). Here we report observations of compressional waves from the WIS slip events propagating hundreds of kilometers across the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) detected by broadband seismographs deployed on the ice shelf. The WIS slip events consist of rapid basal slip concentrated at three high friction regions (often termed sticky-spots or asperities) within a period of about 25 minutes (Pratt et al, 2014). Compressional displacement pulses from the second and third sticky spots are detected across the entire RIS up to about 600 km away from the source. The largest pulse results from the third sticky spot, located along the northwestern grounding line of the WIS. Propagation velocities across the ice shelf are significantly slower than the P wave velocity in ice, as the long period displacement pulse is also sensitive to velocities of the water and sediments beneath the ice shelf. Particle motions are, to the limit of resolution, entirely within the horizontal plane and roughly radial with respect to the WIS sticky-spots, but show significant complexity, presumably due to differences in ice velocity, thickness, and the thickness of water and sediment beneath. Study of this phenomenon should lead to greater understanding of how the ice shelf responds to sudden forcing around the periphery.

Antarctic Ice Shelf Loss Comes From Underneath

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Calving front of an ice shelf in West Antarctica. The traditional view on ice shelves, the floating extensions of seaward glaciers, has been that they mostly lose ice by shedding icebergs. A new study by NASA and university researchers has found that warm ocean waters melting the ice sheets from underneath account for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss in Antarctica. This image was taken during the 2012 Antarctic campaign of NASA's Operation IceBridge, a mission that provided data for the new ice shelf study. Read more: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jefferson Beck NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Ancient Yedoma carbon loss: primed by ice wedge thaw?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowdy, K. L.; Vonk, J. E.; Mann, P. J.; Zimov, N.; Bulygina, E. B.; Davydova, A.; Spencer, R. G.; Holmes, R. M.

2012-12-01

Northeast Siberian permafrost is dominated by frozen Yedoma deposits containing ca. 500 Gt of carbon, nearly a quarter of northern permafrost organic carbon (OC). Yedoma deposits are Pleistocene-age alluvial and/or aeolian accumulations characterized by high ice wedge content (~50%), making them particularly vulnerable to a warming climate and to surface collapse upon thaw. Dissolved OC in streams originating primarily from Yedoma has been shown to be highly biolabile, relative to waters containing more modern OC. The cause of this biolability, however, remains speculative. Here we investigate the influence of ice wedge input upon the bioavailability of Yedoma within streams from as a potential cause of Yedoma carbon biolability upon release into the Kolyma River from the thaw-eroding river exposures of Duvannyi Yar, NE Siberia. We measured biolability on (1) ice wedge, Kolyma, and Yedoma leachate controls; (2) ice wedge and Kolyma plus Yedoma OC (8 g/L); and (3) varying ratios of ice wedge water to Kolyma river water. Biolability assays were conducted using both 5-day BOD (biological oxygen demand) and 11-day BDOC (biodegradable dissolved organic carbon) incubations. We found that ancient DOC in Yedoma soil leachate alone was highly biolabile with losses of 52±0.1% C over a 5-day BOD incubation. Similarly, DOC contained in pure ice wedge water was found to be biolabile, losing 21±0% C during a 5-day BOD incubation. Increased ice wedge contributions led to higher overall C losses in identical Yedoma soil leachates, with 8.9±0.6% losses of Yedoma C with 100% ice wedge water, 7.1±1% (50% ice wedge/ 50% Kolyma) and 5±0.3% with 100% Kolyma River water. We discuss potential mechanisms for the increased loss of ancient C using associated measurements of nutrient availability, carbon quality (CDOM/FDOM) and extracellular enzyme activity rates. Our initial results indicate that ice wedge meltwater forming Yedoma streams makes Yedoma OC more bioavailable than it would

Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

PubMed

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory: Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.

Microbial ice nucleators scavenged from the atmosphere during simulated rain events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanlon, Regina; Powers, Craig; Failor, Kevin; Monteil, Caroline L.; Vinatzer, Boris A.; Schmale, David G.

2017-08-01

Rain and snow collected at ground level have been found to contain biological ice nucleators. These ice nucleators have been proposed to have originated in clouds, where they may have participated in the formation of precipitation via ice phase nucleation. We conducted a series of field experiments to test the hypothesis that at least some of the microbial ice nucleators (prokaryotes and eukaryotes) present in rain may not originate in clouds but instead be scavenged from the lower atmosphere by rainfall. Thirty-three simulated rain events were conducted over four months off the side of the Smart Road Bridge in Blacksburg, VA, USA. In each event, sterile water was dispensed over the side of the bridge and recovered in sterile containers in an open fallow agricultural field below (a distance of ∼55 m). Microbes scavenged from the simulated rain events were cultured and their ice nucleation activity was examined. Putative microbial ice nucleators were cultured from 94% (31/33) of the simulated rain events, and represented 1.5% (121/8331) of the total colonies assayed. Putative ice nucleators were subjected to additional droplet freezing assays, and those confirmed through these repeated assays represented 0.4% (34/8331) of the total. Mean CFUs scavenged by simulated rain ranged from 2 to 267 CFUs/mL. Scavenged ice nucleators belong to a number of taxa including the bacterial genera Pseudomonas, Pantoea, and Xanthomonas, and the fungal genera Fusarium, Humicola, and Mortierella. An ice-nucleating strain of the fungal genus Penicillium was also recovered from a volumetric air sampler at the study site. This work expands our knowledge of the scavenging properties of rainfall, and suggests that at least some ice nucleators in natural precipitation events may have been scrubbed from the atmosphere during rainfall, and thus are not likely to be involved in precipitation.

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Summer 2007 and 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Context: OUTLOOK 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2008-12-01

The Arctic is changing faster than the publication cycle for new information. In response, the SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs initiated an OUTLOOK 2008 to provide broad-based communication and assessment within the arctic science community on the causes of rapid summer sea ice loss, synthesizing information from Arctic observing networks and model simulations. The question for summer 2008 was whether the previous loss of multi-year sea ice and delay in sea ice formation in autumn 2007 would still allow sufficient winter growth of sea ice thickness to last through the summer 2008, potentially allowing for recovery from the 2007 minimum. The answer is no; summer 2008 was a second sequential year of extremely low minimum sea ice extent. To organize OUTLOOK 2008, respondents were asked in May, June and July to provide a rationale and semi-quantitative assessment of arctic sea ice extent anticipated for September 2008. OUTLOOK 2008 supplemented information maintained by ice centers, universities and other data providers. Using a range of methods, all of the approximately 20 groups responded that summer sea ice would not return to climatological mean conditions, with a median response near the 2007 extent. The range of responses depended on the relative weight given to "initial conditions," e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 would be as supportive for ice loss as in 2007. Initial conditions turned out to be a primary factor for summer 2008, with implications for continued sea ice loss in future years. OUTLOOK 2008 highlighted aspects of the observation and modeling efforts that require further attention such as interpretation of summer microwave signatures, in situ buoy measurements, and data assimilation in models. We appreciate the contributions from respondents and reviewers who made OUTLOOK 2008 a success.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber, Jeanne M.

2008-01-01

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki

2014-09-02

Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less

Probing Individual Ice Nucleation Events with Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bingbing; China, Swarup; Knopf, Daniel; Gilles, Mary; Laskin, Alexander

2016-04-01

Heterogeneous ice nucleation is one of the processes of critical relevance to a range of topics in the fundamental and the applied science and technologies. Heterogeneous ice nucleation initiated by particles proceeds where microscopic properties of particle surfaces essentially control nucleation mechanisms. Ice nucleation in the atmosphere on particles governs the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds, which in turn influence the Earth's radiative budget and climate. Heterogeneous ice nucleation is still insufficiently understood and poses significant challenges in predictive understanding of climate change. We present a novel microscopy platform allowing observation of individual ice nucleation events at temperature range of 193-273 K and relative humidity relevant for ice formation in the atmospheric clouds. The approach utilizes a home built novel ice nucleation cell interfaced with Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope (IN-ESEM system). The IN-ESEM system is applied for direct observation of individual ice formation events, determining ice nucleation mechanisms, freezing temperatures, and relative humidity onsets. Reported microanalysis of the ice nucleating particles (INP) include elemental composition detected by the energy dispersed analysis of X-rays (EDX), and advanced speciation of the organic content in particles using scanning transmission x-ray microscopy with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS). The performance of the IN-ESEM system is validated through a set of experiments with kaolinite particles with known ice nucleation propensity. We demonstrate an application of the IN-ESEM system to identify and characterize individual INP within a complex mixture of ambient particles.

Microbial ice nucleators are scavenged from the atmosphere during artificial rain events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanlon, Regina; Powers, Craig; Failor, Kevin; Vinatzer, Boris; Schmale, David

2016-04-01

Some microorganisms associated with rain may catalyze the nucleation of ice crystals at significantly warmer temperatures than would normally be required for ice formation, suggesting that they may play an important role in the onset of precipitation. Rain samples collected near the surface of the earth contain an array of microbial ice nucleators, but the little is known about their source(s) and life history. We conducted a series of field experiments to test the hypothesis that microbial ice nucleators are scavenged from the atmosphere by rainfall. Thirty three artificial rain events were conducted over four months (Nov 2014, Dec 2014, April 2015, and June 2015) off the side of the Smart Road Bridge in Blacksburg, VA, USA. In each event, sterile water was dispensed over the side of the bridge and recovered in sterile containers following gravitational settling from the bridge to an open fallow agricultural field below (a distance of ~55m). Microbes scavenged from the artificial rain events were cultured on six different types of agar media (R2A, TSA, CA; +/-cycloheximide), and the ice nucleation activity was examined for colonies cultured from the different media types. Mean CFUs scavenged by artificial rain ranged from 2 to 267 CFUs/mL. Microbial ice nucleators were cultured from 94% (31/33) of the simulated rain events, and represented 1.4% (121/8871) of the total number of colonies assayed. This percentage is similar to the percentage of culturable microbial ice nucleators occurring in about half of the natural rain events studied in Blacksburg, VA. Sequence-assisted identification of the repeatable microbial ice nucleators that were scavenged from the atmosphere showed a number of unique prokaryotic and eukaryotic taxa. This work expands our knowledge of the scavenging properties of rainfall, and suggests that at least some ice nucleators in natural precipitation events may have been scrubbed from the atmosphere during rainfall, and thus are not likely to be

Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2015-04-01

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica's mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003-2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of - 121 ± 8 Gt /yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of - 18 ± 5 Gt /yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica's loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at - 92 ± 10 Gt /yr.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Mid-Wisconsin Laurentide Ice Sheet growth and decay: Implications for Heinrich events 3 and 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, Matthew E.; Andrews, John T.

1999-04-01

A close look at the sedimentology of Heinrich event 4 from the northwest Labrador Sea indicates that an extended ice margin, perhaps greater than before Heinrich events 1 or 2 (H-1 and H-2), existed in the Hudson Strait region pre-Heinrich event 4 (H-4) and, that on the basis of characteristics of the sediment unit, Heinrich event-4 was different than Heinrich events 1 or 2 (i.e., larger ice sheet collapse(?), longer duration(?), "dirtier" icebergs(?)). Other data from across the southern and eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, as well as Greenland and the North Atlantic, support this interpretation, possibly indicating a relative mid-Wisconsin glacial maximum pre-Heinrich event 4. Many of these data also indicate that Heinrich event 4 (35 ka) resulted in serious climatic and oceanographic reorganizations. We suggest that Heinrich event 4 gutted the Hudson Strait, leaving it devoid of ice for Heinrich event 3. We further hypothesize that Heinrich event 3 did not originate from axial ice transport along the Hudson Strait; thus Heinrich event 3 may be more analogous to the proposed northward advancing ice from Ungava Bay during Heinrich event 0 than to the more typical down-the-strait flow during H-1, H-2, and H-4. Consequently, the climatic and oceanographic impacts resulting from Heinrich events are highly susceptible to the type, origin, and magnitude of ice sheet collapse, something which varied per Heinrich event during the last glacial period.

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Eisenman, I; Wettlaufer, J S

2009-01-06

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Scavenging of ice-nucleating microorganisms from the atmosphere by artificial rain events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanlon, Regina; Powers, Craig; Failor, Kevin; Vinatzer, Boris; Schmale, David

2015-04-01

Little is known about how microorganisms are scavenged from the atmosphere during rainfall. Microorganisms are abundant and diverse in rain (precipitation) collected near the surface of the earth. Some of these rain-associated microorganisms produce proteins that catalyze the nucleation of ice crystals at significantly warmer temperatures than would normally be required for ice formation, suggesting that they may play important roles in weather, including the onset of precipitation. We conducted a series of field experiments to test the hypothesis that ice-nucleating microorganisms are scavenged from the atmosphere by rainfall. Thirteen artificial rain events were conducted off the side of the Smart Road Bridge in Blacksburg, VA, USA. In each event, sterile water was dispensed over the side of the bridge (simulated rainfall), and recovered in sterile containers following gravitational settling from the side of the bridge to an open fallow agricultural field below (a distance of ~55m from the release site to the collection site). Microbes scavenged from the artificial rain events were cultured on six different types of agar media (R2A, TSA, CA; +/- cycloheximide) and the ice nucleation activity was examined for colonies cultured from the different media types. Mean CFUs scavenged by artificial rain ranged from 83 to 196 CFUs/mL across all six media types. Ice-nucleating microorganisms were recovered from 85% (11/13) of the simulated rain events, and represented about 1% of the total number of colonies assayed from each event. Strikingly, this percentage is nearly identical to the percentage of culturable ice-nucleating microorganisms occurring in about half of the natural rain events studied to date in Blacksburg, Virginia. This work expands our knowledge of the scavenging properties of rain, and suggests that at least some ice nucleators in natural precipitation events may have been stripped from the atmosphere during rainfall, thus negating their potential role in

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Slow-slip events on the Whillans Ice Plain, Antarctica, described using rate-and-state friction as an ice stream sliding law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipovsky, Bradley Paul; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-04-01

The Whillans Ice Plain (WIP), Antarctica, experiences twice daily tidally modulated stick-slip cycles. Slip events last about 30 min, have sliding velocities as high as ˜0.5 mm/s (15 km/yr), and have total slip ˜0.5 m. Slip events tend to occur during falling ocean tide: just after high tide and just before low tide. To reproduce these characteristics, we use rate-and-state friction, which is commonly used to simulate tectonic faulting, as an ice stream sliding law. This framework describes the evolving strength of the ice-bed interface throughout stick-slip cycles. We present simulations that resolve the cross-stream dimension using a depth-integrated treatment of an elastic ice layer loaded by tides and steady ice inflow. Steady sliding with rate-weakening friction is conditionally stable with steady sliding occurring for sufficiently narrow ice streams relative to a nucleation length. Stick-slip cycles occur when the ice stream is wider than the nucleation length or, equivalently, when effective pressures exceed a critical value. Ice streams barely wider than the nucleation length experience slow-slip events, and our simulations suggest that the WIP is in this slow-slip regime. Slip events on the WIP show a sense of propagation, and we reproduce this behavior by introducing a rate-strengthening region in the center of the otherwise rate-weakening ice stream. If pore pressures are raised above a critical value, our simulations predict that the WIP would exhibit quasi-steady tidally modulated sliding as observed on other ice streams. This study validates rate-and-state friction as a sliding law to describe ice stream sliding styles.

Measurements of sea ice mass redistribution during ice deformation event in Arctic winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itkin, P.; Spreen, G.; King, J.; Rösel, A.; Skourup, H.; Munk Hvidegaard, S.; Wilkinson, J.; Oikkonen, A.; Granskog, M. A.; Gerland, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-ice growth during high winter is governed by ice dynamics. The highest growth rates are found in leads that open under divergent conditions, where exposure to the cold atmosphere promotes thermodynamic growth. Additionally ice thickens dynamically, where convergence causes rafting and ridging. We present a local study of sea-ice growth and mass redistribution between two consecutive airborne measurements, on 19 and 24 April 2015, during the N-ICE2015 expedition in the area north of Svalbard. Between the two overflights an ice deformation event was observed. Airborne laser scanner (ALS) measurements revisited the same sea-ice area of approximately 3x3 km. By identifying the sea surface within the ALS measurements as a reference the sea ice plus snow freeboard was obtained with a spatial resolution of 5 m. By assuming isostatic equilibrium of level floes, the freeboard heights can be converted to ice thickness. The snow depth is estimated from in-situ measurements. Sea ice thickness measurements were made in the same area as the ALS measurements by electromagnetic sounding from a helicopter (HEM), and with a ground-based device (EM31), which allows for cross-validation of the sea-ice thickness estimated from all 3 procedures. Comparison of the ALS snow freeboard distributions between the first and second overflight shows a decrease in the thin ice classes and an increase of the thick ice classes. While there was no observable snowfall and a very low sea-ice growth of older level ice during this period, an autonomous buoy array deployed in the surroundings of the area measured by the ALS shows first divergence followed by convergence associated with shear. To quantify and link the sea ice deformation with the associated sea-ice thickness change and mass redistribution we identify over 100 virtual buoys in the ALS data from both overflights. We triangulate the area between the buoys and calculate the strain rates and freeboard change for each individual triangle

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

PubMed Central

Eisenman, I.; Wettlaufer, J. S.

2009-01-01

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. PMID:19109440

No nitrate spikes detectable in several polar ice cores following the largest known solar events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekhaldi, Florian; McConnell, Joseph R.; Adolphi, Florian; Arienzo, Monica; Chellman, Nathan J.; Maselli, Olivia; Sigl, Michael; Muscheler, Raimund

2017-04-01

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a genuine and recognized threat to our modern society which is increasingly relying on satellites and technological infrastructures. However, knowledge on the frequency and on the upper limit of the intensity of major solar storms is largely limited by the relatively short direct observation period. In an effort to extend the observation period and because atmospheric ionization induced by solar particles can lead to the production of odd nitrogen, spikes in the nitrate content of ice cores have been tentatively used to reconstruct both the occurrence and intensity of past SEP events. Yet the reliability of its use as such a proxy has been long debated. This is partly due to differing chemistry-climate model outputs, equivocal detection of nitrate spikes in single ice cores for single events, and possible alternative sources to explain nitrate spikes in ice cores. Here we present nitrate measurements from several Antarctic and Greenland ice cores for time periods covering the largest known solar events. More specifically, we use new highly-resolved nitrate and biomass burning proxy species data (e.g. black carbon) from continuous flow analysis following the largest known solar events from the paleo record - the SEP events of 775 and 994 AD. We also consider the historical Carrington event of 1859 as well as contemporary events from the past 60 years which were observed by satellites. Doing so we show that i) there are no reproducible nitrate spikes in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores following any of these major events and that ii) most nitrate spikes found in ice cores are related to biomass burning plumes. Our analysis thus suggests that ice-core nitrate data is not a reliable proxy for atmospheric ionization by SEP events. In light of our results, we advocate that nitrate spikes so far identified from single ice cores should not be used to assess the intensity and occurrence rate of extreme solar events.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Permafrost - Relation between ice content and dielectric losses at 100 K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, R.

1973-01-01

The dielectric response of permafrost at 100 K and vacuums of around 10 ntorr is analyzed, varying its percent ice content from 1 to 18.6. The distributions obtained correspond to dielectric relaxations of the Cole-Cole type, with maximum losses occurring in the 30- to 600-Hz frequency range. The logarithms of such maxima depend linearly on the permafrost ice content, two regions of linear variation being defined above and below 3.6% ice content. Such relations point out the feasibility of determining ice content in permafrost by electromagnetic means.

Impact of weather events on Arctic sea ice albedo evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arntsen, A. E.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Stwertka, C.

2015-12-01

Arctic sea ice undergoes a seasonal evolution from cold snow-covered ice to melting snow to bare ice with melt ponds. Associated with this physical evolution is a decrease in the albedo of the ice cover. While the change in albedo is often considered as a steady seasonal decrease, weather events during melt, such as rain or snow, can impact the albedo evolution. Measurements on first year ice in the Chukchi Sea showed a decrease in visible albedo to 0.77 during the onset of melt. New snow from 4 - 6 June halted melting and increased the visible albedo to 0.87. It took 12 days for the albedo to decrease to levels prior to the snowfall. Incident solar radiation is large in June and thus a change in albedo has a large impact on the surface heat budget. The snowfall increased the albedo by 0.1 and reduced the absorbed sunlight from 5 June to 17 June by approximately 32 MJ m-2. The total impact of the snowfall will be even greater, since the delay in albedo reduction will be propagated throughout the entire summer. A rain event would have the opposite impact, increasing solar heat input and accelerating melting. Snow or rain in May or June can impact the summer melt cycle of Arctic sea ice.

Correspondence between North Pacific Ocean ventilation, Cordilleran Ice Sheet variations, and North Atlantic Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walczak, M. H.; Mix, A.; Fallon, S.; Praetorius, S. K.; Cowan, E. A.; Du, J.; Hobern, T.; Padman, J.; Fifield, L. K.; Stoner, J. S.; Haley, B. A.

2017-12-01

Much remains unresolved concerning the origin and global implications of the episodes of rapid glacial failure in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich Events. Thought to occur during or at the termination of the coldest of the abrupt stadial climate events known as Dansgaard-Oschger cycles, various trigger mechanisms have been theorized, including external forcing in the form of oceanic or atmospheric warming, internal dynamics of the large Laurentide ice sheet, or the episodic failure of another (presumably European) ice sheet. Heinrich events may also be associated with a decrease in North Atlantic deep-water formation. New results from Gulf of Alaska IODP Expedition 341 reveal events of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat (based on ice-rafted detritus and sedimentation rates) synchronous with reorganization of ocean circulation (based on benthic-planktic 14C pairs) spanning the past 45,000 years on an independent high-resolution radiocarbon-based chronology. We document the relationship between these Pacific records and the North Atlantic Heinrich events, and find the data show an early Pacific expression of ice sheet instability in the form of pulses of Cordilleran glacial discharge. The benthic radiocarbon anomalies in the Northeast Pacific contemporaneous with Cordilleran discharge events indicate a close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics throughout Marine Isotope Stage 2. These data are hard to reconcile with triggering in the North Atlantic or internal to the Laurentide ice sheet, requiring us to re-think both the mechanisms that generate Heinrich events and their far-field impacts.

Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in CCSM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweaver, E. T.

2008-12-01

turbulent heat flux losses in the cold season. The role of turbulent heat fluxes is somewhat inconsistent with the retrospective 20th century simulations from PIOMAS, in which increased insolation is balanced by longwave heat loss. By fitting the area anomaly time series for the SIAF and no-SIAF integrations to an AR1 process, the change in net feedback due to SIAF is calculated. The change in net feedback implies that SIAF increases the climate sensitivity of September sea ice to external forcing (greenhouse gas increases) by about 20%. The modest increase in sea ice sensitivity is confirmed by further climate change experiments with and without SIAF with the CCSM/SOM model. The small role for SIAF is somewhat surprising given the prevalence of "abrupt loss" events in CCSM climate change simulations. However, it is consistent with claims that the dominant factor in abrupt loss events is the sea ice thickness at the event onset.

Ice Particle Impacts on a Flat Plate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vargas, Mario; Ruggeri, Charles; Struk, Peter M.; Pereira, Mike; Revilock, Duane; Kreeger, Richard E.

2015-01-01

An experimental study was conducted at the Ballistic Laboratory of NASA Glenn Research Center to study the impact of ice particles on a stationary flat surface target set at 45 degrees with respect to the direction of motion of the impinging particle (Figure 1). The experiment is part of NASA efforts to study the physics involved in engine power-loss events due to ice-crystal ingestion and ice accretion formation inside engines. These events can occur when aircraft encounter high-altitude convective weather.

The 8.2 ka cooling event caused by Laurentide ice saddle collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Ivanovic, R. F.; Tindall, J. C.; Haywood, A. M.

2017-09-01

The 8.2 ka event was a period of abrupt cooling of 1-3 °C across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which lasted for about 160 yr. The original hypothesis for the cause of this event has been the outburst of the proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. These drained into the Labrador Sea in ∼0.5-5 yr and slowed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, thus cooling the North Atlantic region. However, climate models have not been able to reproduce the duration and magnitude of the cooling with this forcing without including additional centennial-length freshwater forcings, such as rerouting of continental runoff and ice sheet melt in combination with the lake release. Here, we show that instead of being caused by the lake outburst, the event could have been caused by accelerated melt from the collapsing ice saddle that linked domes over Hudson Bay in North America. We forced a General Circulation Model with time varying meltwater pulses (100-300 yr) that match observed sea level change, designed to represent the Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse. A 100 yr long pulse with a peak of 0.6 Sv produces a cooling in central Greenland that matches the 160 yr duration and 3 °C amplitude of the event recorded in ice cores. The simulation also reproduces the cooling pattern, amplitude and duration recorded in European Lake and North Atlantic sediment records. Such abrupt acceleration in ice melt would have been caused by surface melt feedbacks and marine ice sheet instability. These new realistic forcing scenarios provide a means to reconcile longstanding mismatches between proxy data and models, allowing for a better understanding of both the sensitivity of the climate models and processes and feedbacks in motion during the disintegration of continental ice sheets.

Arctic sea ice loss and recent extreme cold winter in Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide

2014-05-01

Extreme cold winter over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to winter season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme cold winter over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in winter and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.

Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points.

PubMed

Wadhams, Peter

2012-02-01

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3-4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km(2). Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a 'tipping point' in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.

Mass Balance of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula and its Ongoing Response to Ice Shelf Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.; Berthier, E.; Haran, T. M.; Shuman, C. A.; Cook, A. J.; Bohlander, J. A.

2012-12-01

An assessment of the most rapidly changing areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (north of 66°S) shows that ice mass loss for the region is dominated by areas affected by eastern-Peninsula ice shelf losses in the past 20 years. Little if any of the mass loss is compensated by increased snowfall in the northwestern or far northern areas. We combined satellite stereo-image DEM differencing and ICESat-derived along-track elevation changes to measure ice mass loss for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 66°S between 2001-2010, focusing on the ICESat-1 period of operation (2003-2009). This mapping includes all ice drainages affected by recent ice shelf loss in the northeastern Peninsula (Prince Gustav, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, and Larsen B) as well as James Ross Island, Vega Island, Anvers Island, Brabant Island and the adjacent west-flowing glaciers. Polaris Glacier (feeding the Larsen Inlet, which collapsed in 1986) is an exception, and may have stabilized. Our method uses ASTER and SPOT-5 stereo-image DEMs to determine dh/dt for elevations below 800 m; at higher elevations ICESat along-track elevation differencing is used. To adjust along-track path offsets between its 2003-2009 campaigns, we use a recent DEM of the Peninsula to establish and correct for cross-track slope (Cook et al., 2012, doi:10.5194/essdd-5-365-2012; http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html) . We reduce the effect of possible seasonal variations in elevation by using only integer-year repeats of the ICESat tracks for comparison. Mass losses are dominated by the major glaciers that had flowed into the Prince Gustav (Boydell, Sjorgren, Röhss), Larsen A (Edgeworth, Bombardier, Dinsmoor, Drygalski), and Larsen B (Hektoria, Jorum, and Crane) embayments. The pattern of mass loss emphasizes the significant and multi-decadal response to ice shelf loss. Areas with shelf losses occurring 30 to 100s of years ago seem to be relatively stable or losing mass only slowly (western glaciers, northernmost areas). The

Observations and analyses of an intense waves-in-ice event in the Sea of Okhotsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marko, John R.

2003-09-01

Ice draft, ice velocity, ice concentration, and current profile data gathered at an array of eight continental shelf monitoring sites east of Sakhalin Island were analyzed in conjunction with regional meteorological data to document and explain intense wave occurrences several hundred kilometers inside the Sea of Okhotsk ice pack. The studied event was associated with the 19-21 March 1998 passage of an intense cyclone, which produced waves with amplitudes in excess of 1 m at the most offshore monitoring location. The relatively monochromatic character of the waves allowed extraction of wave intensity time series from ice draft time series data. Spatial and temporal variations in these data were used to establish directions and speeds of wave energy propagation for comparisons with an earlier interpretation [, 1988] of an Antarctic intense waves-in-ice event. It was concluded that although both events are compatible with a two-stage process in which initially slowly advancing wave activity increases subsequent ice cover wave transmissivity, the first stage of the Sea of Okhotsk event was not explicable in terms of the static stress-induced changes in the waves-in-ice dispersion relationship proposed by Liu and Mollo-Christensen. An alternative explanation is offered that eschews the linkage between wave group velocities and the observed slow rates of wave energy propagation and attributes the subsequent transition to more normal wave propagation behavior to ice pack divergence.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods

Evaluating the Impacts of Extreme Events on Ecological Processes Through the Lens of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Driscoll, C. T.; Fahey, T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Schaberg, P. G.

2016-12-01

It is increasingly evident that human-induced climate change is altering the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events. Ice storms are an example of a rare and typically localized extreme weather event that is difficult to predict and has impacts that are poorly understood. We used long-term data and a field manipulation experiment to evaluate how ice storms alter the structure, function, and composition of forest ecosystems. Plots established after a major ice storm in the Northeast in 1998 were re-sampled to evaluate longer-term (17 yr) responses of tree health, productivity, and species composition. Results indicate, that despite changes in herbaceous vegetation in the years immediately after the ice storm, the forest canopy recovered, albeit with some changes in composition, most notably a release of American Beech. An ice storm field manipulation experiment was used to evaluate mechanistic understanding of short term ecological responses. Water from a stream was sprayed above the forest canopy when air temperatures were below freezing, which was effective in simulating a natural ice storm. The experimental design consisted of three levels of ice thickness treatment with two replicates per treatment. The plots with the two more severe icing treatments experienced significant damage to the forest canopy, creating gaps. These plots also had large inputs of fine and coarse woody debris to the forest floor. The exposure to light and presence of brush piles in the more heavily damaged plots resulted in warming with increased spatial variability of soil temperature. Preliminary results from the early growing season have shown no significant changes in soil respiration or soil solution losses of nutrients despite significant forest canopy damage. Further monitoring will determine whether these trends continue in the future.

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia

PubMed Central

Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Bartsch, Annett

2016-01-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social–ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. PMID:27852939

Sea ice, rain-on-snow and tundra reindeer nomadism in Arctic Russia.

PubMed

Forbes, Bruce C; Kumpula, Timo; Meschtyb, Nina; Laptander, Roza; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Zetterberg, Pentti; Verdonen, Mariana; Skarin, Anna; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Boisvert, Linette N; Stroeve, Julienne C; Bartsch, Annett

2016-11-01

Sea ice loss is accelerating in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS). Assessing potential linkages between sea ice retreat/thinning and the region's ancient and unique social-ecological systems is a pressing task. Tundra nomadism remains a vitally important livelihood for indigenous Nenets and their large reindeer herds. Warming summer air temperatures have been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, Russia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, autumn/winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense. Here, we review evidence for autumn atmospheric warming and precipitation increases over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to BKS ice loss. Two major ROS events during November 2006 and 2013 led to massive winter reindeer mortality episodes on the Yamal Peninsula. Fieldwork with migratory herders has revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from the catastrophic 2013 event will unfold for years to come. The suggested link between sea ice loss, more frequent and intense ROS events and high reindeer mortality has serious implications for the future of tundra Nenets nomadism. © 2016 The Authors.

Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagol, Ece

Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL): Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test in the NASA Glenn Research Centers Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) Facility in February 2013. Honeywell Engines supplied the test article, an obsolete, unmodified Lycoming ALF502-R5 turbofan engine serial number LF01 that experienced an un-commanded loss of thrust event while operating at certain high altitude ice crystal icing conditions. These known conditions were duplicated in the PSL for this testing.

Wave inhibition by sea ice enables trans-Atlantic ice rafting of debris during Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Dell, R.; Eisenman, I.; Keeling, R. F.; Padman, L.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The thickness of the ice-rafted debris (IRD) layers that signal Heinrich Events declines far more gradually with distance from the iceberg sources than would be expected based on present-day iceberg trajectories. Here we model icebergs as passive Lagrangian tracers driven by ocean currents, winds, and sea surface temperatures. The icebergs are released in a comprehensive climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum (LGM), as well as a simulation of the modern climate. The two simulated climates result in qualitatively similar distributions of iceberg meltwater and hence debris, with the colder temperatures of the LGM having only a relatively small effect on meltwater spread. In both scenarios, meltwater flux falls off rapidly with zonal distance from the source, in contrast with the more uniform spread of IRD in sediment cores. In order to address this discrepancy, we propose a physical mechanism that could have prolonged the lifetime of icebergs during Heinrich events. The mechanism involves a surface layer of cold and fresh meltwater formed from, and retained around, densely packed armadas of icebergs. This leads to wintertime sea ice formation even in relatively low latitudes. The sea ice in turn shields the icebergs from wave erosion, which is the main source of iceberg ablation. We find that allowing sea ice to form around all icebergs during four months each winter causes the model to approximately agree with the distribution of IRD in sediment cores.

ANTARES constrains a blazar origin of two IceCube PeV neutrino events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ANTARES Collaboration; Adrián-Martínez, S.; Albert, A.; André, M.; Anton, G.; Ardid, M.; Aubert, J.-J.; Baret, B.; Barrios, J.; Basa, S.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bogazzi, C.; Bormuth, R.; Bou-Cabo, M.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Capone, A.; Caramete, L.; Carr, J.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Coyle, P.; Creusot, A.; De Rosa, G.; Dekeyser, I.; Deschamps, A.; De Bonis, G.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Dorosti, Q.; Drouhin, D.; Dumas, A.; Eberl, T.; Enzenhöfer, A.; Escoffier, S.; Fehn, K.; Felis, I.; Fermani, P.; Folger, F.; Fusco, L. A.; Galatà, S.; Gay, P.; Geißelsöder, S.; Geyer, K.; Giordano, V.; Gleixner, A.; Gómez-González, J. P.; Gracia-Ruiz, R.; Graf, K.; van Haren, H.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Herrero, A.; Hößl, J.; Hofestädt, J.; Hugon, C.; James, C. W.; de Jong, M.; Kalekin, O.; Katz, U.; Kießling, D.; Kooijman, P.; Kouchner, A.; Kulikovskiy, V.; Lahmann, R.; Lattuada, D.; Lefèvre, D.; Leonora, E.; Loehner, H.; Loucatos, S.; Mangano, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Martínez-Mora, J. A.; Martini, S.; Mathieu, A.; Michael, T.; Migliozzi, P.; Neff, M.; Nezri, E.; Palioselitis, D.; Păvălaş, G. E.; Perrina, C.; Piattelli, P.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Racca, C.; Riccobene, G.; Richter, R.; Roensch, K.; Rostovtsev, A.; Saldaña, M.; Samtleben, D. F. E.; Sánchez-Losa, A.; Sanguineti, M.; Sapienza, P.; Schmid, J.; Schnabel, J.; Schulte, S.; Schüssler, F.; Seitz, T.; Sieger, C.; Spies, A.; Spurio, M.; Steijger, J. J. M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Taiuti, M.; Tamburini, C.; Tayalati, Y.; Trovato, A.; Tselengidou, M.; Tönnis, C.; Vallage, B.; Vallée, C.; Van Elewyck, V.; Visser, E.; Vivolo, D.; Wagner, S.; de Wolf, E.; Yepes, H.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.; TANAMI Collaboration; Krauß, F.; Kadler, M.; Mannheim, K.; Schulz, R.; Trüstedt, J.; Wilms, J.; Ojha, R.; Ros, E.; Baumgartner, W.; Beuchert, T.; Blanchard, J.; Bürkel, C.; Carpenter, B.; Edwards, P. G.; Eisenacher Glawion, D.; Elsässer, D.; Fritsch, U.; Gehrels, N.; Gräfe, C.; Großberger, C.; Hase, H.; Horiuchi, S.; Kappes, A.; Kreikenbohm, A.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Langejahn, M.; Leiter, K.; Litzinger, E.; Lovell, J. E. J.; Müller, C.; Phillips, C.; Plötz, C.; Quick, J.; Steinbring, T.; Stevens, J.; Thompson, D. J.; Tzioumis, A. K.

2015-04-01

Context. The source(s) of the neutrino excess reported by the IceCube Collaboration is unknown. The TANAMI Collaboration recently reported on the multiwavelength emission of six bright, variable blazars which are positionally coincident with two of the most energetic IceCube events. Objects like these are prime candidates to be the source of the highest-energy cosmic rays, and thus of associated neutrino emission. Aims: We present an analysis of neutrino emission from the six blazars using observations with the ANTARES neutrino telescope. Methods: The standard methods of the ANTARES candidate list search are applied to six years of data to search for an excess of muons - and hence their neutrino progenitors - from the directions of the six blazars described by the TANAMI Collaboration, and which are possibly associated with two IceCube events. Monte Carlo simulations of the detector response to both signal and background particle fluxes are used to estimate the sensitivity of this analysis for different possible source neutrino spectra. A maximum-likelihood approach, using the reconstructed energies and arrival directions of through-going muons, is used to identify events with properties consistent with a blazar origin. Results: Both blazars predicted to be the most neutrino-bright in the TANAMI sample (1653-329 and 1714-336) have a signal flux fitted by the likelihood analysis corresponding to approximately one event. This observation is consistent with the blazar-origin hypothesis of the IceCube event IC 14 for a broad range of blazar spectra, although an atmospheric origin cannot be excluded. No ANTARES events are observed from any of the other four blazars, including the three associated with IceCube event IC20. This excludes at a 90% confidence level the possibility that this event was produced by these blazars unless the neutrino spectrum is flatter than -2.4. Figures 2, 3 and Appendix A are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Ice Slurry Ingestion Leads to a Lower Net Heat Loss during Exercise in the Heat.

PubMed

Morris, Nathan B; Coombs, Geoff; Jay, Ollie

2016-01-01

To compare the reductions in evaporative heat loss from the skin (Esk) to internal heat loss (Hfluid) induced by ice slurry (ICE) ingestion relative to 37 °C fluid and the accompanying body temperature and local thermoeffector responses during exercise in warm, dry conditions (33.5 °C ± 1.4 °C; 23.7% ± 2.6% relative humidity [RH]). Nine men cycled at approximately 55% VO2peak for 75 min and ingested 3.2 mL · kg(-1) aliquots of 37 °C fluid or ICE after 15, 30, and 45 min of exercise. Metabolic heat production (M-W), rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk), whole-body sweat loss (WBSL), local sweat rate (LSR), and skin blood flow (SkBF) were measured throughout. Net heat loss (HLnet) and heat storage (S) were estimated using partitional calorimetry. Relative to the 37 °C trial, M-W was similar (P = 0.81) with ICE ingestion; however, the 200 ± 20 kJ greater Hfluid (P < 0.001) with ICE ingestion was overcompensated by a 381 ± 199-kJ lower Esk (P < 0.001). Net heat loss (HLnet) was consequently 131 ± 120 kJ lower (P = 0.01) and S was greater (P = 0.05) with ICE ingestion compared with 37 °C fluid ingestion. Concurrently, LSR and WBSL were lower by 0.16 ± 0.14 mg · min(-1) · cm(-2) (P < 0.01) and 191 ± 122 g (P < 0.001), respectively, and SkBF tended to be lower (P = 0.06) by 5.4%maxAU ± 13.4%maxAU in the ICE trial. Changes in Tre and Tsk were similar throughout exercise with ICE compared to 37 °C fluid ingestion. Relative to 37 °C, ICE ingestion caused disproportionately greater reductions in Esk relative to Hfluid, resulting in a lower HLnet and greater S. Mechanistically, LSR and possibly SkBF were suppressed independently of Tre or Tsk, reaffirming the concept of human abdominal thermoreception. From a heat balance perspective, recommendations for ICE ingestion during exercise in warm, dry conditions should be reconsidered.

Ice nucleating particle concentration during a combustion aerosol event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Mike; O'Sullivan, Daniel; Porter, Grace; Sanchez-Marroquin, Alberto; Tarn, Mark; Harrison, Alex; McQuaid, Jim; Murray, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The formation of ice in supercooled clouds is important for cloud radiative properties, their lifetime and the formation of precipitation. Cloud water droplets can supercool to below -33oC, but in the presence of Ice Nucleating Particles (INPs) freezing can be initiated at much higher temperatures. The concentration of atmospheric aerosols that are active as INPs depends on a number of factors, such as temperature and aerosol composition and concentration. However, our knowledge of which aerosol types serve as INPs is limited. For example, there has been much discussion over whether aerosol from combustion processes are important as INP. This is significant because combustion aerosol have increased in concentration dramatically since pre-industrial times and therefore have the potential to exert a significant anthropogenic impact on clouds and climate. In this study we made measurements of INP concentrations in Leeds over a specific combustion aerosol event in order to test if there was a correlation between INP concentrations and combustion aerosol. The combustion aerosol event was on the 5th November which is a major bonfire and firework event celebrated throughout the UK. During the event we observed a factor of five increase in aerosol and a factor of 10 increase in black carbon, but observed no significant increase in INP concentration. This implies that black carbon and combustion aerosol did not compete with the background INP during this event.

Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals.

PubMed

Berger, J; Hartway, C; Gruzdev, A; Johnson, M

2018-01-18

Despite the growth in knowledge about the effects of a warming Arctic on its cold-adapted species, the mechanisms by which these changes affect animal populations remain poorly understood. Increasing temperatures, declining sea ice and altered wind and precipitation patterns all may affect the fitness and abundance of species through multiple direct and indirect pathways. Here we demonstrate previously unknown effects of rain-on-snow (ROS) events, winter precipitation, and ice tidal surges on the Arctic's largest land mammal. Using novel field data across seven years and three Alaskan and Russian sites, we show arrested skeletal growth in juvenile muskoxen resulting from unusually dry winter conditions and gestational ROS events, with the inhibitory effects on growth from ROS events lasting up to three years post-partum. Further, we describe the simultaneous entombment of 52 muskoxen in ice during a Chukchi Sea winter tsunami (ivuniq in Iñupiat), and link rapid freezing to entrapment of Arctic whales and otters. Our results illustrate how once unusual, but increasingly frequent Arctic weather events affect some cold-adapted mammals, and suggest that an understanding of species responses to a changing Arctic can be enhanced by coalescing groundwork, rare events, and insights from local people.

Preliminary Flight Deck Observations During Flight in High Ice Water Content Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas; Duchanoy, Dominque; Bourdinot, Jean-Francois; Harrah, Steven; Strapp, Walter; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Dezitter, Fabien; Grandin, Alice

2015-01-01

In 2006, Mason et al. identified common observations that occurred in engine power-loss events attributed to flight in high concentrations of ice crystals. Observations included light to moderate turbulence, precipitation on the windscreen (often reported as rain), aircraft total temperature anomalies, lack of significant airframe icing, and no flight radar echoes at the location and altitude of the engine event. Since 2006, Mason et al. and others have collected information from pilots who experienced engine power-loss events via interviews and questionnaires to substantiate earlier observations and support event analyses. In 2011, Mason and Grzych reported that vertical acceleration data showed increases in turbulence prior to engine events, although the turbulence was usually light to moderate and not unique to high ice water content (HIWC) clouds. Mason concluded that the observation of rain on the windscreen was due to melting of ice high concentrations of ice crystals on the windscreen, coalescing into drops. Mason also reported that these pilot observations of rain on the windscreen were varied. Many pilots indicated no rain was observed, while others observed moderate rain with unique impact sounds. Mason concluded that the variation in the reports may be due to variation in the ice concentration, particle size, and temperature.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2012-12-01

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

2011-01-01

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Use of SAR imagery and other remotely-sensed data in deriving ice information during a severe ice event on the Grand Banks (Newfoundland)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carsey, F. D.; Argus, S. D.

1988-01-01

Image data from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are used to observe an ice compaction event off the East Coast of Newfoundland in spring, 1987. The information developed from sequential SAR observations is shown to do a remarkably effective job of describing the ice conditions; the difficult variable is the ice thickness which is found to be surprisingly large (2 to 4 times the thickness predictable from thermodynamic growth alone). It may be possible to model the ice thickness using SAR-derived ice motion.

Bipolar volcanic events in ice cores and the Toba eruption at 74 ka BP (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svensson, A.

2013-12-01

Acidity spikes in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores are applied as tracers of past volcanic activity. Besides providing information on the timing and magnitude of past eruptions, the acidity spikes are also widely used for synchronization of ice cores. All of the deep Greenland ice cores are thus synchronized throughout the last glacial cycle based on volcanic markers. Volcanic matching of ice cores from the two Hemispheres is much more challenging but it is feasible in periods of favourable conditions. Over the last two millennia, where ice cores are precisely dated, some 50 bipolar volcanic events have thus been identified. In order for an eruption to express a bipolar fingerprint it generally needs to be a low latitude eruption with stratospheric injection. Sometimes tephra is associated with the ice-core acidity spikes, but most often there is no tephra present in the ice. As yet, an unknown eruption occurring in 1259 AD is the only event reported to have deposited tephra in both Greenland and Antarctica. During the last glacial period bipolar volcanic matching is very challenging and very little work has been done, but recent high-resolution ice core records have the potential to provide bipolar ice core matching for some periods. Recently, Greenland and Antarctic ice cores have been linked by acidity spikes in the time window of the most recent eruption (the YTT eruption) of the Indonesian Toba volcano that is situated close to equator in Sumatra. Ash from this Toba event is widespread over large areas in Asia and has been identified as far west as Africa, but no corresponding tephra has been found in polar ice cores despite several attempts. The age of the YTT eruption is well constrained by recent Ar-Ar dating to have occurred some 74 ka ago close to the Marine Isotope Stage 4/5 boundary and close to the onset of the cold Greenland Stadial 20 and the corresponding mild Antarctic Isotopic Maxima 19 and 20. Surprisingly, no single outstanding acidity spike

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Discharge of water and sediment from ice-streams on the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet during Heinrich events: timing and magnitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashid, H.; Piper, D.

2017-12-01

Several ice-streams on the southeastern sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet discharged icebergs, meltwater, and fine-grained sediments into the North Atlantic during Heinrich (H) events. The principal contribution was through Hudson Strait, which is the only source clearly identified in H ice-rafted layers in the central North Atlantic. The role of direct supply of meltwater in modifying the Atlantic meridional circulation generally has been regarded as secondary. The relative chronology of discharge in different ice-streams is poorly known. Here, we re-assess these questions using continental margin cores constrained by high-resolution seismic profiles and multibeam bathymetry data. Relative importance of ice streams likely scales with cross-sectional area of their erosional troughs. On that basis, the Hudson Strait ice stream was twice as large as that in the Laurentian Channel and 3-4 times larger than smaller troughs. Several ice streams supplied petrographically and geochemically distinct sediment including black shales from Cumberland Sound, limestone and dolomite in particular proportions from Frobisher Bay and Hudson Strait, and red sandstones and shales ± carbonates from NE Newfoundland and Laurentian Channel. In several cases, detrital carbonate H layers derived predominantly from Hudson Strait are preceded by enhanced IRD deposition from smaller ice streams, e.g. deposits from Cumberland Sound on the Labrador slope, from NE Newfoundland in Orphan Basin, and from Laurentian Channel on the Nova Scotian margin. Gravel petrology indicates that Hudson Strait sources make up >90% of the ice-rafted component of distal H layers. H layers proximal to the Hudson Strait ice-streams are 4 to 12 meters thick compared to a few centimeters thick seaward of the Trinity Trough and Laurentian ice-streams, comparable to the thickness of the North Atlantic. This underscores the great importance of meltwater and suspended sediment close to ice stream outlets. Morphological

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

Fermi/LAT search for counterpart to the IceCube event 67093193 (run 127853)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vianello, G.; Magill, J. D.; Omodei, N.; Kocevski, D.; Ajello, M.; Buson, S.; Krauss, F.; Chiang, J.

2016-04-01

on behalf of the Fermi-LAT team: We have searched the Fermi Large Area Telescope data for a high-energy gamma-ray counterpart for the IceCube High Energy Starting Event (HESE) 67093193, detected in run 127853 on 2016-04-27 05:52:32.00 UT (AMON GCN notice rev. 2, http://gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov/notices_amon/67093193_127853.amon . See http://gcn.gsfc.nasa.gov/doc/Public_Doc_AMON_IceCube_GCN_Alerts_v2.pdf for a description of HESE events and related GCN notices).

The direct mechanical influence of sea ice state on ice sheet mass loss via iceberg mélange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.

2017-12-01

The interaction between sea ice and land ice has typically been considered as a large-scale exchange of moisture, heat and salinity through the ocean and atmosphere. However, recent observations from marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland indicate that the long-term decline of local sea ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in nearby iceberg calving and associated ice sheet mass loss. Near glacier calving fronts, sea ice binds icebergs together into an aggregate granular material known as iceberg mélange. Studies have hypothesized that mélange may suppress calving by exerting a mechanical buttressing force directly on the glacier terminus. Here, we show explicitly how sea ice thickness and concentration play a critical role in setting the material strength of mélange. To do so, we adapt a discrete element model to simulate mélange as a cohesive granular material. In these simulations, mélange laden with thick, dense, landfast sea ice can produce enough resistance to shut down calving at the terminus. When sea ice thins, mélange weakens, reducing the mechanical force of mélange on the glacier terminus, and increasing the likelihood of calving. We discuss whether longer periods of sea-ice-free conditions in winter may lead to a transition from currently slow calving, predominantly occurring in the summer, to rapid calving, occurring throughout the year. We also discuss the potential role of freshwater discharge in promoting sea ice formation in fjords, potentially strengthening mélange.

From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2017-08-01

Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

Modeling the Deterioration of Engine and Low Pressure Compressor Performance During a Roll Back Event Due to Ice Accretion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veres, Joseph P.; Jorgenson, Philip, C. E.; Jones, Scott M.

2014-01-01

The main focus of this study is to apply a computational tool for the flow analysis of the engine that has been tested with ice crystal ingestion in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) of NASA Glenn Research Center. A data point was selected for analysis during which the engine experienced a full roll back event due to the ice accretion on the blades and flow path of the low pressure compressor. The computational tool consists of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) engine system thermodynamic cycle code, and an Euler-based compressor flow analysis code, that has an ice particle melt estimation code with the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor blade rows. Decreasing the performance characteristics of the low pressure compressor (LPC) within the NPSS cycle analysis resulted in matching the overall engine performance parameters measured during testing at data points in short time intervals through the progression of the roll back event. Detailed analysis of the fan-core and LPC with the compressor flow analysis code simulated the effects of ice accretion by increasing the aerodynamic blockage and pressure losses through the low pressure compressor until achieving a match with the NPSS cycle analysis results, at each scan. With the additional blockages and losses in the LPC, the compressor flow analysis code results were able to numerically reproduce the performance that was determined by the NPSS cycle analysis, which was in agreement with the PSL engine test data. The compressor flow analysis indicated that the blockage due to ice accretion in the LPC exit guide vane stators caused the exit guide vane (EGV) to be nearly choked, significantly reducing the air flow rate into the core. This caused the LPC to eventually be in stall due to increasing levels of diffusion in the rotors and high incidence angles in the inlet guide vane (IGV) and EGV stators. The flow analysis indicating

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Keegan, Kaitlin M; Albert, Mary R; McConnell, Joseph R; Baker, Ian

2014-06-03

In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.

Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from three years of IceTop and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, K.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-05-01

IceTop is the surface component of the IceCube Observatory, composed of frozen water tanks at the top of IceCube’s strings. Data from this detector can be analyzed in different ways with the goal of measuring cosmic ray spectrum and composition. The shower size S125 from IceTop alone can be used as a proxy for primary energy, and unfolded into an all-particle spectrum. In addition, S125 from the surface can be combined with high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep IceCube detector for those air showers which pass through both. Using these coincident events in a complementary analysis, both the spectrum and mass composition of primary cosmic rays can be extracted in parallel using a neural network. Both of these analyses have been performed on three years of IceTop and IceCube data. Both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.

Petermann Glacier, North Greenland: Large Ice-Discharge Episodes from 20 Years of Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babiker, M.; Johannessen, O. M.; Miles, M. W.; Miles, V. V.

2009-12-01

The major marine-terminating outlet glaciers of Greenland can undergo large mass losses through calving of icebergs and bottom melting from floating ice tongues. Recent observations of outlet glaiers around Greenland have shown that large and rapid changes in solid-ice fluxes are possible. The Petermann glacier in remote northern Greenland is the region’s largest floating-tongue glacier (~70 km by 10 km). In summer 2008 a large calving event was observed, as well as large cracks upstream of the remaining calving front, portending a more massive near-term loss. These observations may herald extraordinary and unprecedented change. However, the long-term variability of calving events and ice velocities are poorly known. Our research goal here is to identify the temporal variability and possible trends in solid-ice flux indicators - variability of the calving front and ice velocity - for Petermann glacier. The methodological approach is observational, based primarily on analysis of 20 years of repetitive satellite data over a period starting from 1990, together with sporadic earlier observations. The multisensor data range from high-resolution optical images from Landsat, SPOT and Terra ASTER and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from ERS and ENVISAT. These disparate data have been imported, geo-registered and analysed within a Geographic Information System. The following measurements are made: (1) delineating changes in the calving front, (2) estimating the area of glacial ice loss during calving events, and (3) estimating the ice-surface velocity using sequential satellite images. We find evidence of a number of previous calving episodes of similar magnitude to the summer 2008. The ice-velocity estimates compare well with other estimates for particular years, and moreover are relatively consistent during the 20-year period. These findings suggest business-as-usual for Petermann glacier; however, a near-term calving event exceeding those observed

A discussion of IceCube neutrino events, circa 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaili, Arman; Palladino, Andrea; Vissani, Francesco

2016-04-01

IceCube has changed the rules of the game and continues to progress. Their observations are compatible with cosmic neutrinos undergoing 3 flavor oscillations. The topologies of the events have been used to probe ordinary and exotic physics. Still, we need independent confirmations of this assumption; the astrophysical connections heavily rely on speculations (excepting special cases, such as GRB); the amount of prompt events is not known precisely; double bang and/or Glashow resonance events are still to be seen; the energy and the angular distributions are not well-known, even if the simplest picture (isotropic flux, power law distributed in energy) is still compatible with the data. In this talk, we select specific topics concerning expectations, inferences and prospects.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

The performance of probiotic fermented sheep milk and ice cream sheep milk in inhibiting enamel mineral loss.

PubMed

Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C

2017-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic Monitoring of Ice Generated Events at the Bering Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, K.; Richardson, J.; Pennington, W.

2008-12-01

The Bering Glacier, located in southeast Alaska, is the largest glacier in North America with a surface area of approximately 5,175 square kilometers. It extends from its source in the Bagley Icefield to its terminus in tidal Vitus Lake, which drains into the Gulf of Alaska. It is known that the glacier progresses downhill through the mechanisms of plastic crystal deformation and basal sliding. However, the basal processes which take place tens to hundreds of meters below the surface are not well understood, except through the study of sub- glacial landforms and passive seismology. Additionally, the sub-glacial processes enabling the surges, which occur approximately every two decades, are poorly understood. Two summer field campaigns in 2007 and 2008 were designed to investigate this process near the terminus of the glacier. During the summer of 2007, a field experiment at the Bering Glacier was conducted using a sparse array of L-22 short period sensors to monitor ice-related events. The array was in place for slightly over a week in August and consisted of five stations centered about the final turn of the glacier west of the Grindle Hills. Many events were observed, but due to the large distance between stations and the highly attenuating surface ice, few events were large enough to be recorded on sufficient stations to be accurately located and described. During August 2008, six stations were deployed for a similar length of time, but with a closer spacing. With this improved array, events were located and described more accurately, leading to additional conclusions about the surface, interior, and sub-glacial ice processes producing seismic signals. While the glacier was not surging during the experiment, this study may provide information on the non-surging, sub-glacial base level activity. It is generally expected that another surge will take place within a few years, and baseline studies such as this may assist in understanding the nature of surges.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.

PubMed

Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong

2018-03-14

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

Impact of early and late winter icing events on sub-arctic dwarf shrubs.

PubMed

Preece, C; Phoenix, G K

2014-01-01

Polar regions are predicted to undergo large increases in winter temperature and an increased frequency of freeze-thaw cycles, which can cause ice layers in the snow pack and ice encasement of vegetation. Early or late winter timing of ice encasement could, however, modify the extent of damage caused to plants. To determine impacts of the date of ice encasement, a novel field experiment was established in sub-arctic Sweden, with icing events simulated in January and March 2008 and 2009. In the subsequent summers, reproduction, phenology, growth and mortality, as well as physiological indicators of leaf damage were measured in the three dominant dwarf shrubs: Vaccinium uliginosum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum. It was hypothesised that January icing would be more damaging compared to March icing due to the longer duration of ice encasement. Following 2 years of icing, E. nigrum berry production was 83% lower in January-iced plots compared to controls, and V. vitis-idaea electrolyte leakage was increased by 69%. Conversely, electrolyte leakage of E. nigrum was 25% lower and leaf emergence of V. vitis-idaea commenced 11 days earlier in March-iced plots compared to control plots in 2009. There was no effect of icing on any of the other parameters measured, indicating that overall these study species have moderate to high tolerance to ice encasement. Even much longer exposure under the January icing treatment does not clearly increase damage. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E.; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr2.

Surface Mass Balance Contributions to Acceleration of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss during 2003- 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, K. W.; Wilson, C. R.; Scambos, T. A.; Kim, B. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Tian, B.; Kim, B.; Eom, J.

2015-12-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the GRACE mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6±7.2 GTon/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2±2.0 GTon/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8±5.8 GTon/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1±6.5 GTon/yr2.

Quantifying ice loss in the eastern Himalayas since 1974 using declassified spy satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Joshua M.; Rupper, Summer B.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

2016-09-01

Himalayan glaciers are important natural resources and climate indicators for densely populated regions in Asia. Remote sensing methods are vital for evaluating glacier response to changing climate over the vast and rugged Himalayan region, yet many platforms capable of glacier mass balance quantification are somewhat temporally limited due to typical glacier response times. We here rely on declassified spy satellite imagery and ASTER data to quantify surface lowering, ice volume change, and geodetic mass balance during 1974-2006 for glaciers in the eastern Himalayas, centered on the Bhutan-China border. The wide range of glacier types allows for the first mass balance comparison between clean, debris, and lake-terminating (calving) glaciers in the region. Measured glaciers show significant ice loss, with an estimated mean annual geodetic mass balance of -0.13 ± 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 (meters of water equivalent per year) for 10 clean-ice glaciers, -0.19 ± 0.11 m w.e. yr-1 for 5 debris-covered glaciers, -0.28 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr-1 for 6 calving glaciers, and -0.17 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr-1 for all glaciers combined. Contrasting hypsometries along with melt pond, ice cliff, and englacial conduit mechanisms result in statistically similar mass balance values for both clean-ice and debris-covered glacier groups. Calving glaciers comprise 18 % (66 km2) of the glacierized area yet have contributed 30 % (-0.7 km3) to the total ice volume loss, highlighting the growing relevance of proglacial lake formation and associated calving for the future ice mass budget of the Himalayas as the number and size of glacial lakes increase.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakov, Igor V.; Pnyushkov, Andrey V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Ashik, Igor M.; Baumann, Till M.; Carmack, Eddy C.; Goszczko, Ilona; Guthrie, John; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Kanzow, Torsten; Krishfield, Richard; Kwok, Ronald; Sundfjord, Arild; Morison, James; Rember, Robert; Yulin, Alexander

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching “atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

Search for Astrophysical Sources of Neutrinos Using Cascade Events in IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aartsen, M. G.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Samarai, I. Al; Altmann, D.; Andeen, K.; Anderson, T.; Ansseau, I.; Anton, G.; Argüelles, C.; Auffenberg, J.; Axani, S.; Bagherpour, H.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Bay, R.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; BenZvi, S.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Besson, D. Z.; Binder, G.; Bindig, D.; Blaufuss, E.; Blot, S.; Bohm, C.; Börner, M.; Bos, F.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Bourbeau, J.; Bradascio, F.; Braun, J.; Brayeur, L.; Brenzke, M.; Bretz, H.-P.; Bron, S.; Burgman, A.; Carver, T.; Casey, J.; Casier, M.; Cheung, E.; Chirkin, D.; Christov, A.; Clark, K.; Classen, L.; Coenders, S.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Cowen, D. F.; Cross, R.; Day, M.; de André, J. P. A. M.; De Clercq, C.; DeLaunay, J. J.; Dembinski, H.; De Ridder, S.; Desiati, P.; de Vries, K. D.; de Wasseige, G.; de With, M.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; di Lorenzo, V.; Dujmovic, H.; Dumm, J. P.; Dunkman, M.; Eberhardt, B.; Ehrhardt, T.; Eichmann, B.; Eller, P.; Evenson, P. A.; Fahey, S.; Fazely, A. R.; Felde, J.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Flis, S.; Franckowiak, A.; Friedman, E.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Ghorbani, K.; Giang, W.; Glauch, T.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Grant, D.; Griffith, Z.; Haack, C.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hanson, K.; Hebecker, D.; Heereman, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hickford, S.; Hignight, J.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Hokanson-Fasig, B.; Hoshina, K.; Huang, F.; Huber, M.; Hultqvist, K.; In, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jeong, M.; Jero, K.; Jones, B. J. P.; Kalacynski, P.; Kang, W.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Katz, U.; Kauer, M.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kheirandish, A.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Kintscher, T.; Kiryluk, J.; Kittler, T.; Klein, S. R.; Kohnen, G.; Koirala, R.; Kolanoski, H.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koschinsky, J. P.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Krings, K.; Kroll, M.; Krückl, G.; Kunnen, J.; Kunwar, S.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Kyriacou, A.; Labare, M.; Lanfranchi, J. L.; Larson, M. J.; Lauber, F.; Lennarz, D.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Leuermann, M.; Liu, Q. R.; Lu, L.; Lünemann, J.; Luszczak, W.; Madsen, J.; Maggi, G.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Mancina, S.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Maunu, R.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Medici, M.; Meier, M.; Menne, T.; Merino, G.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Micallef, J.; Momenté, G.; Montaruli, T.; Moulai, M.; Nahnhauer, R.; Nakarmi, P.; Naumann, U.; Neer, G.; Niederhausen, H.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke Pollmann, A.; Olivas, A.; O'Murchadha, A.; Palczewski, T.; Pandya, H.; Pankova, D. V.; Peiffer, P.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pinat, E.; Plum, M.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Raab, C.; Rädel, L.; Rameez, M.; Rawlins, K.; Reimann, R.; Relethford, B.; Relich, M.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Richman, M.; Riedel, B.; Robertson, S.; Rongen, M.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ryckbosch, D.; Rysewyk, D.; Sälzer, T.; Sanchez Herrera, S. E.; Sandrock, A.; Sandroos, J.; Sarkar, S.; Sarkar, S.; Satalecka, K.; Schlunder, P.; Schmidt, T.; Schneider, A.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schumacher, L.; Seckel, D.; Seunarine, S.; Soldin, D.; Song, M.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stachurska, J.; Stanev, T.; Stasik, A.; Stettner, J.; Steuer, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Strotjohann, N. L.; Sullivan, G. W.; Sutherland, M.; Taboada, I.; Tatar, J.; Tenholt, F.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Terliuk, A.; Tešić, G.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Tobin, M. N.; Toscano, S.; Tosi, D.; Tselengidou, M.; Tung, C. F.; Turcati, A.; Turley, C. F.; Ty, B.; Unger, E.; Usner, M.; Vandenbroucke, J.; Van Driessche, W.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vanheule, S.; van Santen, J.; Vehring, M.; Vogel, E.; Vraeghe, M.; Walck, C.; Wallace, A.; Wallraff, M.; Wandkowsky, N.; Waza, A.; Weaver, C.; Weiss, M. J.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Wickmann, S.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Wille, L.; Williams, D. R.; Wills, L.; Wolf, M.; Wood, J.; Wood, T. R.; Woolsey, E.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Xu, Y.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Yuan, T.; Zoll, M.; IceCube Collaboration

2017-09-01

The IceCube neutrino observatory has established the existence of a flux of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos, which is inconsistent with the expectation from atmospheric backgrounds at a significance greater than 5σ. This flux has been observed in analyses of both track events from muon neutrino interactions and cascade events from interactions of all neutrino flavors. Searches for astrophysical neutrino sources have focused on track events due to the significantly better angular resolution of track reconstructions. To date, no such sources have been confirmed. Here we present the first search for astrophysical neutrino sources using cascades interacting in IceCube with deposited energies as small as 1 TeV. No significant clustering was observed in a selection of 263 cascades collected from 2010 May to 2012 May. We show that compared to the classic approach using tracks, this statistically independent search offers improved sensitivity to sources in the southern sky, especially if the emission is spatially extended or follows a soft energy spectrum. This enhancement is due to the low background from atmospheric neutrinos forming cascade events and the additional veto of atmospheric neutrinos at declinations ≲-30°.

Search for Astrophysical Sources of Neutrinos Using Cascade Events in IceCube

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aartsen, M. G.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.

The IceCube neutrino observatory has established the existence of a flux of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos, which is inconsistent with the expectation from atmospheric backgrounds at a significance greater than 5 σ . This flux has been observed in analyses of both track events from muon neutrino interactions and cascade events from interactions of all neutrino flavors. Searches for astrophysical neutrino sources have focused on track events due to the significantly better angular resolution of track reconstructions. To date, no such sources have been confirmed. Here we present the first search for astrophysical neutrino sources using cascades interacting in IceCube withmore » deposited energies as small as 1 TeV. No significant clustering was observed in a selection of 263 cascades collected from 2010 May to 2012 May. We show that compared to the classic approach using tracks, this statistically independent search offers improved sensitivity to sources in the southern sky, especially if the emission is spatially extended or follows a soft energy spectrum. This enhancement is due to the low background from atmospheric neutrinos forming cascade events and the additional veto of atmospheric neutrinos at declinations ≲−30°.« less

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.

2005-01-01

Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Demystifying the PeV cascades in IceCube: Less (energy) is more (events)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laha, Ranjan; Beacom, John F.; Dasgupta, Basudeb; Horiuchi, Shunsaku; Murase, Kohta

2013-08-01

The IceCube neutrino observatory has detected two cascade events with energies near 1 PeV [A. Ishihara Proceedings of Neutrino 2012 Conference, http://neu2012.kek.jp/index.html; M. Aartsen et al. (IceCube Collaboration) Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 021103 (2013)]. Without invoking new physics, we analyze the source of these neutrinos. We show that atmospheric conventional neutrinos and cosmogenic neutrinos (those produced in the propagation of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays) are strongly disfavored. For atmospheric prompt neutrinos or a diffuse background of neutrinos produced in astrophysical objects, the situation is less clear. We show that there is tension with observed data, but that the details depend on the least-known aspects of the IceCube analysis. Very likely, prompt neutrinos are disfavored and astrophysical neutrinos are plausible. We demonstrate that the fastest way to reveal the origin of the observed PeV neutrinos is to search for neutrino cascades in the range below 1 PeV, for which dedicated analyses with high sensitivity have yet to appear, and where many more events could be found.

Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

2007-01-01

The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013.

PubMed

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr 2 . Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr 2 . However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr 2 . Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr 2 .

Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Moore, John C.; Cheng, Xiao; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; Liu, Hongxing; Wen, Jiahong; Hui, Fengming

2015-01-01

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates. PMID:25733856

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a

Did accelerated North American ice sheet melt contribute to the 8.2 ka cooling event ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, Ilkka S. O.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanović, Ruža F.; Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.

2016-04-01

The 8.2 ka event was an abrupt cooling of the Northern Hemisphere 8,200 years ago. It is an almost ideal case study to benchmark the sensitivity of climate models to freshening of the North Atlantic by ice sheet melt (Schmidt and LeGrande, 2005). The event is attributed to the outburst of North American proglacial lakes into the Labrador Sea, causing a slow-down in Atlantic overturning circulation and cooling of 1-2.5 °C around the N. Atlantic (Alley and Ágústsdóttir,2005). Climate models fail to simulate the ~150 year duration of the event when forced with a sudden (0.5 to 5 years) drainage of the lakes (Morrill et al., 2013a). This could be because of missing forcings. For example, the separation of ice sheet domes around the Hudson Bay is thought to have produced a pronounced acceleration in ice sheet melt through a saddle collapse mechanism around the time of the event (Gregoire et al., 2012). Here we investigate whether this century scale acceleration of melt contributed to the observed climatic perturbation, using the coupled Ocean-Atmosphere climate model HadCM3. We designed and ran a set of simulations with temporally variable ice melt scenarios based on a model of the North American ice sheet. The simulated magnitude and duration of the cold period is controlled by the duration and amount of freshwater introduced to the ocean. With a 100-200 year-long acceleration of ice melt up to a maximum of 0.61 Sv, we simulate 1-3 °C cooling in the North Atlantic and ~0.5-1 °C cooling in Continental Europe; which are similar in magnitude to the ~1-2 °C cooling estimated from records for these areas (Morrill et al., 2013b). Some of the observed features are however not reproduced in our experiments, such as the most pronounced cooling of ~6 °C observed in central Greenland (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). The results suggest that the ~150 year North Atlantic and European cooling could be caused by ~200 years of accelerated North American ice sheet melt. This

Arctic Sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R. W.; Schweiger, A. J. B.

2014-12-01

68% reduction and there is no indication it may be leveling off as seen in an earlier study of submarine ice drafts by Rothrock et al. (2008). This is nearly double the 36% decline report by them. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of sea ice losses found in model reanalyses.

Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2015-02-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of mean ice thickness have been sparse in time and space, making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness, and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling errors. Observational sources used in this study include upward-looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to determine the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems, using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month, and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2012 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2012. Applying our method to the period 1975-2012 for the central Arctic Basin where we have sufficient data (the SCICEX box), we find that the annual mean ice thickness has decreased from 3.59 m in 1975 to 1.25 m in 2012, a 65% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational evidence of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2014-08-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of ice thickness have been sparse in time and space making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling biases. Observational sources include upward looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to evaluate the systematic differences between eight different observation systems in the Arctic Basin. The approach determines the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2013 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2013, while the annual mean ice thickness for the central Arctic Basin alone (the SCICEX Box) has decreased from 3.45 m in 1975 to 1.11 m in 2013, a 68% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Global mountain snow and ice loss driven by dust and black carbon radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.

2014-12-01

Changes in mountain snow and glaciers have been our strongest indicators of the effects of changing climate. Earlier melt of snow and losses of glacier mass have perturbed regional water cycling, regional climate, and ecosystem dynamics, and contributed strongly to sea level rise. Recent studies however have revealed that in some regions, the reduction of albedo by light absorbing impurities in snow and ice such as dust and black carbon can be distinctly more powerful than regional warming at melting snow and ice. In the Rocky Mountains, dust deposition has increased 5 to 7 fold in the last 150 years, leading to ~3 weeks earlier loss of snow cover from forced melt. In absolute terms, in some years dust radiative forcing there can shorten snow cover duration by nearly two months. Remote sensing retrievals are beginning to reveal powerful dust and black carbon radiative forcing in the Hindu Kush through Himalaya. In light of recent ice cores that show pronounced increases in loading of dust and BC during the Anthropocene, these forcings may have contributed far more to glacier retreat than previously thought. For example, we have shown that the paradoxical end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps beginning around 1850 (when glaciers began to retreat but temperatures continued to decline and precipitation was unchanged) very likely was driven by the massive increases in deposition to snow and ice of black carbon from industrialization in surrounding nations. A more robust understanding of changes in mountain snow and ice during the Anthropocene requires that we move past simplistic treatments (e.g. temperature-index modeling) to energy balance approaches that assess changes in the individual forcings such as the most powerful component for melt - net solar radiation. Remote sensing retrievals from imaging spectrometers and multispectral sensors are giving us more powerful insights into the time-space variation of snow and ice albedo.

Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel

2016-04-01

Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Ice Accretion Measurements on an Airfoil and Wedge in Mixed-Phase Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Struk, Peter; Bartkus, Tadas; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Currie, Tom; Fuleki, Dan

2015-01-01

This paper describes ice accretion measurements from experiments conducted at the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada's Research Altitude Test Facility during 2012. Due to numerous engine power loss events associated with high altitude convective weather, potential ice accretion within an engine due to ice crystal ingestion is being investigated collaboratively by NASA and NRC. These investigations examine the physical mechanisms of ice accretion on surfaces exposed to ice crystal and mixed phase conditions, similar to those believed to exist in core compressor regions of jet engines. A further objective of these tests is to examine scaling effects since altitude appears to play a key role in this icing process.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Double-Cascade Events from New Physics in Icecube [Double Bangs from New Physics in IceCube

DOE PAGES

Coloma, Pilar; Machado, Pedro A. N.; Martinez-Soler, Ivan; ...

2017-11-16

A variety of new physics models allows for neutrinos to up-scatter into heavier states. If the incident neutrino is energetic enough, the heavy neutrino may travel some distance before decaying. In this work, we consider the atmospheric neutrino flux as a source of such events. At IceCube, this would lead to a “double-bang” (DB) event topology, similar to what is predicted to occur for tau neutrinos at ultrahigh energies. The DB event topology has an extremely low background rate from coincident atmospheric cascades, making this a distinctive signature of new physics. Finally, our results indicate that IceCube should already bemore » able to derive new competitive constraints on models with GeV-scale sterile neutrinos using existing data.« less

Double-Cascade Events from New Physics in Icecube [Double Bangs from New Physics in IceCube

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coloma, Pilar; Machado, Pedro A. N.; Martinez-Soler, Ivan

A variety of new physics models allows for neutrinos to up-scatter into heavier states. If the incident neutrino is energetic enough, the heavy neutrino may travel some distance before decaying. In this work, we consider the atmospheric neutrino flux as a source of such events. At IceCube, this would lead to a “double-bang” (DB) event topology, similar to what is predicted to occur for tau neutrinos at ultrahigh energies. The DB event topology has an extremely low background rate from coincident atmospheric cascades, making this a distinctive signature of new physics. Finally, our results indicate that IceCube should already bemore » able to derive new competitive constraints on models with GeV-scale sterile neutrinos using existing data.« less

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir

2018-04-01

Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps.

PubMed

Noël, B; van de Berg, W J; Lhermitte, S; Wouters, B; Machguth, H; Howat, I; Citterio, M; Moholdt, G; Lenaerts, J T M; van den Broeke, M R

2017-03-31

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -1 , or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

PubMed Central

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-01-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt−1, or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming. PMID:28361871

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J.; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-03-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (+/-5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36+/-16 Gt-1, or ~14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Photographic Analysis Technique for Assessing External Tank Foam Loss Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rieckhoff, T. J.; Covan, M.; OFarrell, J. M.

2001-01-01

A video camera and recorder were placed inside the solid rocket booster forward skirt in order to view foam loss events over an area on the external tank (ET) intertank surface. In this Technical Memorandum, a method of processing video images to allow rapid detection of permanent changes indicative of foam loss events on the ET surface was defined and applied to accurately count, categorize, and locate such events.

IceCube events and decaying dark matter: hints and constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaili, Arman; Kang, Sin Kyu; Dario Serpico, Pasquale

2014-12-01

In the light of the new IceCube data on the (yet unidentified) astrophysical neutrino flux in the PeV and sub-PeV range, we present an update on the status of decaying dark matter interpretation of the events. In particular, we develop further the angular distribution analysis and discuss the perspectives for diagnostics. By performing various statistical tests (maximum likelihood, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling tests) we conclude that currently the data show a mild preference (below the two sigma level) for the angular distribution expected from dark matter decay vs. the isotropic distribution foreseen for a conventional astrophysical flux of extragalactic origin. Also, we briefly develop some general considerations on heavy dark matter model building and on the compatibility of the expected energy spectrum of decay products with the IceCube data, as well as with existing bounds from gamma-rays. Alternatively, assuming that the IceCube data originate from conventional astrophysical sources, we derive bounds on both decaying and annihilating dark matter for various final states. The lower limits on heavy dark matter lifetime improve by up to an order of magnitude with respect to existing constraints, definitively making these events—even if astrophysical in origin—an important tool for astroparticle physics studies.

Novel Proxies Approach to Characterise Ice Rafting Events in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornilova, O.; Russell, M.; Rosell-Melé, A.; Evans, I. S.

2002-12-01

During the last glacial period, there have been several episodes of quasi-periodic iceberg discharge from the ice sheets into the North Atlantic (Heinrich Events) (Heinrich, 1988). These episodes are recorded in Quaternary sediments as layers of ice rafted debris (IRD). Properties of sediments in these Heinrich Layers (HLs) differ from those of adjacent ambient sediments. Heinrich Events (HEs) are associated with changes in global climate. To determine the cause of HEs, work on provenance of IRD was undertaken. Previous studies included analysis of bulk properties of lithic and organic matter in IRD and an attempt to correlate them with those of possible continental sources (e.g. Grousset et al., 2001). We used biomarker approach to characterise the provenance of IRD in the North Atlantic, similar to oil-source rock correlation used in petroleum industry. In this work, biomarker composition of Heinrich Layers from several North Atlantic cores was compared with that of possible source areas. As a proxy for source of IRD, we analysed glaciogenic debris flows from trough mouth fans (TMF) that formed as a result of iceberg discharge (Vorren and Laberg, 1997). Those included samples from the Nordic Seas, Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. Different classes of organic compounds (e.g. photosynthetic pigments and hydrocarbons) were characterised. Variability within each class, relative abundances of different components and isotopic signatures were considered. Biomarker fingerprints were compared within each core, within each TMF and between TMFs. Cluster analysis was performed to correlate sources of IRD (TMFs) and its sinks (HLs from several North Atlantic cores). Grousset et al. 2001. Zooming in on Heinrich layers. Paleoceanography, 16, 240-259. Heinrich, H. 1988. Origin and Consequence of Ice Rafting In Northeast Atlantic Ocean During the Past 130,000 Years. Quaternary Research, 29, 143-152. Vorren and Laberg. 1997. Trough Mouth Fans - Palaeoclimate and Ice-Sheet Monitors

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Hydrogen-Bonding Surfaces for Ice Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Joseph G., Jr.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Kreeger, Richard E.; Hadley, Kevin R.; McDougall, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Ice formation on aircraft, either on the ground or in-flight, is a major safety issue. While ground icing events occur predominantly during the winter months, in-flight icing can happen anytime during the year. The latter is more problematic since it could result in increased drag and loss of lift. Under a Phase I ARMD NARI Seedling Activity, coated aluminum surfaces possessing hydrogen-bonding groups were under investigation for mitigating ice formation. Hydroxyl and methyl terminated dimethylethoxysilanes were prepared via known chemistries and characterized by spectroscopic methods. These materials were subsequently used to coat aluminum surfaces. Surface compositions were based on pure hydroxyl and methyl terminated species as well as mixtures of the two. Coated surfaces were characterized by contact angle goniometry. Receding water contact angle data suggested several potential surfaces that may exhibit reduced ice adhesion. Qualitative icing experiments performed under representative environmental temperatures using supercooled distilled water delivered via spray coating were inconclusive. Molecular modeling studies suggested that chain mobility affected the interface between ice and the surface more than terminal group chemical composition. Chain mobility resulted from the creation of "pockets" of increased free volume for longer chains to occupy.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Enhanced Starting Track Event Selection for Astrophysical Neutrinos in IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jero, Kyle; IceCube Collaboration

2017-09-01

IceCube’s measurements of the astrophysical neutrino flux have applied veto techniques to suppress atmospheric neutrinos and muons. All the vetos thus far have used the outer regions of the detector to identify and reject penetrating muon tracks, leaving the inner parts of the detector available to observe the astrophysical neutrino flux. Here we discuss a method that is optimized for muon neutrinos which have a charged-current interaction with a contained vertex. This analysis exploits the high quality directional information of muons to determine a veto on an event by event basis. The final sample will contain astrophysical neutrinos with good purity starting around 10 TeV.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Treesearch

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

Investigating cosmic rays and air shower physics with IceCube/IceTop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dembinski, Hans

2017-06-01

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer detector in the deep ice at South Pole. Its square-kilometer surface array, IceTop, is located at 2800 m altitude. IceTop is large and dense enough to cover the cosmic-ray energy spectrum from PeV to EeV energies with a remarkably small systematic uncertainty, thanks to being close to the shower maximum. The experiment offers new insights into hadronic physics of air showers by observing three components: the electromagnetic signal at the surface, GeV muons in the periphery of the showers, and TeV muons in the deep ice. The cosmic-ray flux is measured with the surface signal. The mass composition is extracted from the energy loss of TeV muons observed in the deep ice in coincidence with signals at the surface. The muon lateral distribution is obtained from GeV muons identified in surface signals in the periphery of the shower. The energy spectrum of the most energetic TeV muons is also under study, as well as special events with laterally separated TeV muon tracks which originate from high-pT TeV muons. A combination of all these measurements opens the possibility to perform powerful new tests of hadronic interaction models used to simulate air showers. The latest results will be reviewed from this perspective.

Mass loss of the Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Noël, Brice; Moholdt, Geir; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

At its rapidly warming margins, the Greenland Ice Sheet is surrounded by (semi-)detached glaciers and ice caps (GIC). Although they cover only roughly 5% of the total glaciated area in the region, they are estimated to account for 15-20% of the total sea level rise contribution of Greenland. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mass changes of the peripheral GICs, however, remains poorly constrained. In this presentation, we use satellite altimetry from ICESat and Cryosat-2 combined with a high-resolution regional climate model to derive a 14 year time series (2003-2016) of regional elevation and mass changes. The total mass loss has been relatively constant during this period, but regionally, the GICs show marked temporal variations. Whereas thinning was concentrated along the eastern margin during 2003-2009, western GICs became the prime sea level rise contributors in recent years. Mass loss in the northern region has been steadily increasing throughout the record, due to a strong atmospheric warning and a deterioration of the capacity of the firn layer to buffer the resulting melt water.

Early 21st-Century Mass loss of the North-Atlantic Glaciers and Ice Caps (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Moholdt, Geir; Gardner, Alex S.; Noel, Brice; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

Historically, ice loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps has been one of the largest contributors to sea level rise over the last century. Of particular interest are the glaciers and ice caps in the North-Atlantic region of the Arctic. Despite the cold climate in this area, considerable melting and runoff occurs in summer. A small increase in temperature will have an immediate effect on these processes, so that a large change in the Arctic ice volume can be expected in response to the anticipated climate change in the coming century. Unfortunately, direct observations of glaciers are sparse and are biased toward glaciers systems in accessible, mostly maritime, climate conditions. Remote sensing is therefore essential to monitor the state of the the North-Atlantic glaciers and ice caps. In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that has been made in estimating the ice mass balance of these regions, with a particular focus on measurements made by ESA's Cryosat-2 radar altimeter mission (2010-present). Compared to earlier altimeter mission, Cryosat-2 provides unprecedented coverage of the cryosphere, with a resolution down to 1 km or better and sampling at monthly intervals. Combining the Cryosat-2 measurements with the laser altimetry data from ICESat (2003-2009) gives us a 12 yr time series of glacial mass loss in the North Atlantic. We find excellent agreement between the altimetry measurements and independent observations by the GRACE mission, which directly 'weighs' the ice caps, albeit at a much lower resolution. Mass loss in the region has increased from 120 Gigatonnes per year in 2003-2009 to roughly 140 Gt/yr in 2010-2014, with an important contribution from Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps. Importantly, the mass loss is not stationary, but shows large regional interannual variability, with mass loss shifting between eastern and western regions from year to year. Comparison with regional climate models shows that these shifts can be

High-energy neutrino follow-up search of gravitational wave event GW150914 with ANTARES and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adrián-Martínez, S.; Albert, A.; André, M.; Anghinolfi, M.; Anton, G.; Ardid, M.; Aubert, J.-J.; Avgitas, T.; Baret, B.; Barrios-Martí, J.; Basa, S.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bormuth, R.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Capone, A.; Caramete, L.; Carr, J.; Celli, S.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coleiro, A.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Coyle, P.; Creusot, A.; Deschamps, A.; De Bonis, G.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Drouhin, D.; Eberl, T.; El Bojaddaini, I.; Elsässer, D.; Enzenhöfer, A.; Fehn, K.; Felis, I.; Fusco, L. A.; Galatà, S.; Gay, P.; Geißelsöder, S.; Geyer, K.; Giordano, V.; Gleixner, A.; Glotin, H.; Gracia-Ruiz, R.; Graf, K.; Hallmann, S.; van Haren, H.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Hößl, J.; Hofestädt, J.; Hugon, C.; Illuminati, G.; James, C. W.; de Jong, M.; Jongen, M.; Kadler, M.; Kalekin, O.; Katz, U.; Kießling, D.; Kouchner, A.; Kreter, M.; Kreykenbohm, I.; Kulikovskiy, V.; Lachaud, C.; Lahmann, R.; Lefèvre, D.; Leonora, E.; Loucatos, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Marinelli, A.; Martínez-Mora, J. A.; Mathieu, A.; Melis, K.; Michael, T.; Migliozzi, P.; Moussa, A.; Mueller, C.; Nezri, E.; Pǎvǎlaş, G. E.; Pellegrino, C.; Perrina, C.; Piattelli, P.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Racca, C.; Riccobene, G.; Roensch, K.; Saldaña, M.; Samtleben, D. F. E.; Sánchez-Losa, A.; Sanguineti, M.; Sapienza, P.; Schnabel, J.; Schüssler, F.; Seitz, T.; Sieger, C.; Spurio, M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Taiuti, M.; Trovato, A.; Tselengidou, M.; Turpin, D.; Tönnis, C.; Vallage, B.; Vallée, C.; Van Elewyck, V.; Vivolo, D.; Wagner, S.; Wilms, J.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.; Aartsen, M. G.; Abraham, K.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Altmann, D.; Anderson, T.; Ansseau, I.; Anton, G.; Archinger, M.; Arguelles, C.; Arlen, T. C.; Auffenberg, J.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Bay, R.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; Beiser, E.; BenZvi, S.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bernhard, A.; Besson, D. Z.; Binder, G.; Bindig, D.; Bissok, M.; Blaufuss, E.; Blumenthal, J.; Boersma, D. J.; Bohm, C.; Börner, M.; Bos, F.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Braun, J.; Brayeur, L.; Bretz, H.-P.; Buzinsky, N.; Casey, J.; Casier, M.; Cheung, E.; Chirkin, D.; Christov, A.; Clark, K.; Classen, L.; Coenders, S.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Cowen, D. F.; Cruz Silva, A. H.; Daughhetee, J.; Davis, J. C.; Day, M.; de André, J. P. A. M.; De Clercq, C.; del Pino Rosendo, E.; Dembinski, H.; De Ridder, S.; Desiati, P.; de Vries, K. D.; de Wasseige, G.; de With, M.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; di Lorenzo, V.; Dujmovic, H.; Dumm, J. P.; Dunkman, M.; Eberhardt, B.; Ehrhardt, T.; Eichmann, B.; Euler, S.; Evenson, P. A.; Fahey, S.; Fazely, A. R.; Feintzeig, J.; Felde, J.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Flis, S.; Fösig, C.-C.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gaior, R.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Ghorbani, K.; Gier, D.; Gladstone, L.; Glagla, M.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Golup, G.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Góra, D.; Grant, D.; Griffith, Z.; Ha, C.; Haack, C.; Haj Ismail, A.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hansen, E.; Hansmann, B.; Hansmann, T.; Hanson, K.; Hebecker, D.; Heereman, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hickford, S.; Hignight, J.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Holzapfel, K.; Homeier, A.; Hoshina, K.; Huang, F.; Huber, M.; Huelsnitz, W.; Hulth, P. O.; Hultqvist, K.; In, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jeong, M.; Jero, K.; Jones, B. J. P.; Jurkovic, M.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Katz, U.; Kauer, M.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, J.; Kheirandish, A.; Kim, M.; Kintscher, T.; Kiryluk, J.; Klein, S. R.; Kohnen, G.; Koirala, R.; Kolanoski, H.; Konietz, R.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Krings, K.; Kroll, G.; Kroll, M.; Krückl, G.; Kunnen, J.; Kunwar, S.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Labare, M.; Lanfranchi, J. L.; Larson, M. J.; Lennarz, D.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Leuermann, M.; Leuner, J.; Lu, L.; Lünemann, J.; Madsen, J.; Maggi, G.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Mandelartz, M.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Matis, H. S.; Maunu, R.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Medici, M.; Meier, M.; Meli, A.; Menne, T.; Merino, G.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Middell, E.; Mohrmann, L.; Montaruli, T.; Morse, R.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naumann, U.; Neer, G.; Niederhausen, H.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke Pollmann, A.; Olivas, A.; Omairat, A.; O'Murchadha, A.; Palczewski, T.; Pandya, H.; Pankova, D. V.; Paul, L.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pfendner, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pinat, E.; Posselt, J.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Quinnan, M.; Raab, C.; Rädel, L.; Rameez, M.; Rawlins, K.; Reimann, R.; Relich, M.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Richman, M.; Richter, S.; Riedel, B.; Robertson, S.; Rongen, M.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ryckbosch, D.; Sabbatini, L.; Sander, H.-G.; Sandrock, A.; Sandroos, J.; Sarkar, S.; Schatto, K.; Schimp, M.; Schlunder, P.; Schmidt, T.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schönwald, A.; Schumacher, L.; Seckel, D.; Seunarine, S.; Soldin, D.; Song, M.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stahlberg, M.; Stamatikos, M.; Stanev, T.; Stasik, A.; Steuer, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Ström, R.; Strotjohann, N. L.; Sullivan, G. W.; Sutherland, M.; Taavola, H.; Taboada, I.; Tatar, J.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Terliuk, A.; Tešić, G.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Tobin, M. N.; Toscano, S.; Tosi, D.; Tselengidou, M.; Turcati, A.; Unger, E.; Usner, M.; Vallecorsa, S.; Vandenbroucke, J.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vanheule, S.; van Santen, J.; Veenkamp, J.; Vehring, M.; Voge, M.; Vraeghe, M.; Walck, C.; Wallace, A.; Wallraff, M.; Wandkowsky, N.; Weaver, Ch.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Wille, L.; Williams, D. R.; Wills, L.; Wissing, H.; Wolf, M.; Wood, T. R.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Xu, Y.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zoll, M.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Belczynski, C.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C. J.; Berger, B. K.; Bergman, J.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bogan, C.; Bohe, A.; Bojtos, P.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, C.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M.; Conte, A.; Conti, L.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Darman, N. S.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Daveloza, H. P.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R. T.; De Rosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Dojcinoski, G.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Douglas, R.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Engels, W.; Essick, R. C.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H. A. G.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gatto, A.; Gaur, G.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Gendre, B.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gordon, N. A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Hofman, D.; Hollitt, S. E.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huang, S.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Idrisy, A.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Islas, G.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jang, H.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Kehl, M. S.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Kim, Nam-Gyu; Kim, Namjun; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Kokeyama, K.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Krueger, C.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lasky, P. D.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Levine, B. M.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Luo, J.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; MacDonald, T.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Magee, R. M.; Mageswaran, M.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martynov, D. V.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D. J.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R. K.; Necula, V.; Nedkova, K.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Patrick, Z.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Predoi, V.; Premachandra, S. S.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prix, R.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Reed, C. M.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sandeen, B.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Schilling, R.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Serna, G.; Setyawati, Y.; Sevigny, A.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shao, Z.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, N. D.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strauss, N. A.; Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, G.; Yablon, J.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, H.; Yvert, M.; ZadroŻny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zuraw, S. E.; Zweizig, J.; Antares Collaboration

2016-06-01

We present the high-energy-neutrino follow-up observations of the first gravitational wave transient GW150914 observed by the Advanced LIGO detectors on September 14, 2015. We search for coincident neutrino candidates within the data recorded by the IceCube and Antares neutrino detectors. A possible joint detection could be used in targeted electromagnetic follow-up observations, given the significantly better angular resolution of neutrino events compared to gravitational waves. We find no neutrino candidates in both temporal and spatial coincidence with the gravitational wave event. Within ±500 s of the gravitational wave event, the number of neutrino candidates detected by IceCube and Antares were three and zero, respectively. This is consistent with the expected atmospheric background, and none of the neutrino candidates were directionally coincident with GW150914. We use this nondetection to constrain neutrino emission from the gravitational-wave event.

Implications of fractured Arctic perennial ice cover on thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asplin, Matthew G.; Scharien, Randall; Else, Brent; Howell, Stephen; Barber, David G.; Papakyriakou, Tim; Prinsenberg, Simon

2014-04-01

Decline of the Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent is characterized by large expanses of open water in the Siberian, Laptev, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas, and introduces large fetch distances in the Arctic Ocean. Long waves can propagate deep into the pack ice, thereby causing flexural swell and failure of the sea ice. This process shifts the floe size diameter distribution smaller, increases floe surface area, and thereby affects sea ice dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results of Radarsat-2 imagery analysis show that a flexural fracture event which occurred in the Beaufort Sea region on 6 September 2009 affected ˜40,000 km2. Open water fractional area in the area affected initially decreased from 3.7% to 2.7%, but later increased to ˜20% following wind-forced divergence of the ice pack. Energy available for lateral melting was assessed by estimating the change in energy entrainment from longwave and shortwave radiation in the mixed-layer of the ocean following flexural fracture. 11.54 MJ m-2 of additional energy for lateral melting of ice floes was identified in affected areas. The impact of this process in future Arctic sea ice melt seasons was assessed using estimations of earlier occurrences of fracture during the melt season, and is discussed in context with ocean heat fluxes, atmospheric mixing of the ocean mixed layer, and declining sea ice cover. We conclude that this process is an important positive feedback to Arctic sea ice loss, and timing of initiation is critical in how it affects sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Search for an Excess of Events in the Super-Kamiokande Detector in the Directions of the Astrophysical Neutrinos Reported by the IceCube Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, K.; Bronner, C.; Pronost, G.; Hayato, Y.; Ikeda, M.; Iyogi, K.; Kameda, J.; Kato, Y.; Kishimoto, Y.; Marti, Ll.; Miura, M.; Moriyama, S.; Nakahata, M.; Nakano, Y.; Nakayama, S.; Okajima, Y.; Orii, A.; Sekiya, H.; Shiozawa, M.; Sonoda, Y.; Takeda, A.; Takenaka, A.; Tanaka, H.; Tasaka, S.; Tomura, T.; Akutsu, R.; Kajita, T.; Kaneyuki, K.; Nishimura, Y.; Okumura, K.; Tsui, K. M.; Labarga, L.; Fernandez, P.; Blaszczyk, F. d. M.; Gustafson, J.; Kachulis, C.; Kearns, E.; Raaf, J. L.; Stone, J. L.; Sulak, L. R.; Berkman, S.; Tobayama, S.; Goldhaber, M.; Elnimr, M.; Kropp, W. R.; Mine, S.; Locke, S.; Weatherly, P.; Smy, M. B.; Sobel, H. W.; Takhistov, V.; Ganezer, K. S.; Hill, J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lim, I. T.; Park, R. G.; Himmel, A.; Li, Z.; O'Sullivan, E.; Scholberg, K.; Walter, C. W.; Ishizuka, T.; Nakamura, T.; Jang, J. S.; Choi, K.; Learned, J. G.; Matsuno, S.; Smith, S. N.; Amey, J.; Litchfield, R. P.; Ma, W. Y.; Uchida, Y.; Wascko, M. O.; Cao, S.; Friend, M.; Hasegawa, T.; Ishida, T.; Ishii, T.; Kobayashi, T.; Nakadaira, T.; Nakamura, K.; Oyama, Y.; Sakashita, K.; Sekiguchi, T.; Tsukamoto, T.; Abe, KE.; Hasegawa, M.; Suzuki, A. T.; Takeuchi, Y.; Yano, T.; Cao, S. V.; Hayashino, T.; Hiraki, T.; Hirota, S.; Huang, K.; Jiang, M.; Minamino, A.; Nakamura, KE.; Nakaya, T.; Quilain, B.; Patel, N. D.; Wendell, R. A.; Anthony, L. H. V.; McCauley, N.; Pritchard, A.; Fukuda, Y.; Itow, Y.; Murase, M.; Muto, F.; Mijakowski, P.; Frankiewicz, K.; Jung, C. K.; Li, X.; Palomino, J. L.; Santucci, G.; Vilela, C.; Wilking, M. J.; Yanagisawa, C.; Ito, S.; Fukuda, D.; Ishino, H.; Kibayashi, A.; Koshio, Y.; Nagata, H.; Sakuda, M.; Xu, C.; Kuno, Y.; Wark, D.; Di Lodovico, F.; Richards, B.; Tacik, R.; Kim, S. B.; Cole, A.; Thompson, L.; Okazawa, H.; Choi, Y.; Ito, K.; Nishijima, K.; Koshiba, M.; Totsuka, Y.; Suda, Y.; Yokoyama, M.; Calland, R. G.; Hartz, M.; Martens, K.; Simpson, C.; Suzuki, Y.; Vagins, M. R.; Hamabe, D.; Kuze, M.; Yoshida, T.; Ishitsuka, M.; Martin, J. F.; Nantais, C. M.; Tanaka, H. A.; Konaka, A.; Chen, S.; Wan, L.; Zhang, Y.; Minamino, A.; Wilkes, R. J.; Super-Kamiokande Collaboration

2017-12-01

We present the results of a search in the Super-Kamiokande (SK) detector for excesses of neutrinos with energies above a few GeV that are in the direction of the track events reported in IceCube. Data from all SK phases (SK-I through SK-IV) were used, spanning a period from 1996 April to 2016 April and corresponding to an exposure of 225 kiloton-years. We considered the 14 IceCube track events from a data set with 1347 livetime days taken from 2010 to 2014. We use Poisson counting to determine if there is an excess of neutrinos detected in SK in a 10° search cone (5° for the highest energy data set) around the reconstructed direction of the IceCube event. No significant excess was found in any of the search directions we examined. We also looked for coincidences with a recently reported IceCube multiplet event. No events were detected within a ±500 s time window around the first detected event, and no significant excess was seen from that direction over the lifetime of SK.

State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

2016-04-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

2015-12-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Does Hot Water Freeze Faster Than Cold? Or Why Mpemba's Ice Cream Is a Discrepant Event

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmer, Bill

1993-01-01

A discrepant event is a happening contrary to our current beliefs. Discrepant events are said to be useful in clarifying concepts. This is one of the interesting features of current theories of constructivism. The story of Mpemba's ice cream is quite well known, but it is the educational aspects of the experiment that are of interest in this…

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

Pond Hockey on Whitmore Lacus: the Formation of Ponds and Ethane Ice Deposits Following Storm Events on Titan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckloff, Jordan; Soderblom, Jason M.

2017-10-01

Cassini ISS observations reveled regions, later identified as topographic low spots (Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS) on Saturn’s moon Titan become significantly darker (lower albedo) following storm events (Turtle et al. 2009, GRL; 2011, Science), suggesting pools of liquid hydrocarbon mixtures (predominantly methane-ethane-nitrogen). However, these dark ponds then significantly brighten (higher albedo relative to pre-storm albedo), before fading to their pre-storm albedos (Barnes et al. 2013 Planet. Sci; Soderblom et al. 2014, DPS). We interpret these data to be the result of ethane ice formation, which cools from evaporation of methane. The formation of ethane ices results from a unique sequence of thermophysical processes. Initially, the methane in the ternary mixture evaporates, cooling the pond. Nitrogen, dissolved primarily in the methane, exsolves, further cooling the liquid. However, because nitrogen is significantly more soluble in cooler methane-hydrocarbon mixtures, the relative concentration of nitrogen in the solution increases as it cools. This increased nitrogen fraction increases the density of the pond, as nitrogen is significantly more dense thane methane or ethane (pure ethane’s density is intermediate to that of methane and nitrogen). At around ~85 K the mixture is as dense as pure liquid ethane. Thus, further evaporative methane loss and cooling at the pond’s surface leads to a chemical stratification, with an increasingly ethane rich epilimnion (surface layer) overlying a methane rich hypolimnion (subsurface layer). Further evaporation of methane from the ethane-rich epilimnion drives its temperature and composition toward the methane-ethane-nitrogen liquidus curve, causing pure ethane ice to precipitate out of solution and settle to the bottom of the pool. This settling would obscure the ethane ice from Cassini VIMS and ISS, which would instead continue to appear as a dark pond on the surface. As the ethane precipitates out completely, a

Ice, Ice, Baby!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, C.

2008-12-01

The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) has developed an outreach program based on hands-on activities called "Ice, Ice, Baby". These lessons are designed to teach the science principles of displacement, forces of motion, density, and states of matter. These properties are easily taught through the interesting topics of glaciers, icebergs, and sea level rise in K-8 classrooms. The activities are fun, engaging, and simple enough to be used at science fairs and family science nights. Students who have participated in "Ice, Ice, Baby" have successfully taught these to adults and students at informal events. The lessons are based on education standards which are available on our website www.cresis.ku.edu. This presentation will provide information on the activities, survey results from teachers who have used the material, and other suggested material that can be used before and after the activities.

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Solitary Waves of Ice Loss Detected in Greenland Crustal Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2017-12-01

The annual cycle and secular trend of Greenland mass loading are well recorded in measurements of solid Earth deformation. While bedrock vertical displacements are in phase with loading as inferred from space observations, horizontal motions have received almost no attention. The horizontal bedrock displacements can potentially track the spatiotemporal detail of mass changes with great fidelity. Our analysis of Greenland crustal motion data reveals that a significant excitation of horizontal amplitudes occurs during the intense Greenland melting. A suite of space geodetic observations and climate reanalysis data cannot explain these large horizontal displacements. We discover that solitary seasonal waves of substantial mass transport traveled through Rink Glacier in 2010 and 2012. We deduce that intense summer melting enhanced either basal lubrication or shear softening, or both, causing the glacier to thin dynamically. The newly routed upstream sublglacial water was likely to be both retarded and inefficient, thus providing a causal mechanism for the prolonged ice transport to continue well into the winter months. As the climate continues to produce increasingly warmer spring and summer, amplified seasonal waves of mass transport may become ever more present in years of future observations. Increased frequency of amplified seasonal mass transport may ultimately strengthen the Greenland's dynamic ice mass loss, a component of the balance that will have important ramifications for sea level rise. This animation shows a solitary wave passing through Rink Glacier, Greenland, in 2012, recorded by the motion of a GPS station (circle with arrow). Darker blue colors within the flow indicate mass loss, red colors show mass gain. The star marks the center of the wave. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

PubMed

Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n  = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p  < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6 ° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1 ° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

2009/2010 Eurasian Cold Winter and Loss of Arctic Sea-ice over Barents/Kara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, T.; Kim, B.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

In 2009/2010 winter, a few extreme cold events and heavy snowfall occurred over central North America, north western Europe, and East Asia exerting a severe social and economic impacts. In this study, we performed modeling experiments to examine the role of substantially reduced Arctic sea-ice over Barents/Kara Sea on the 2009/2010 cold winters. Although several previous studies investigated cause of the extreme events and emphasized the large snow-covered area over Siberia in autumn 2009, we note that the area extent of Arctic sea-ice over Barents/Kara sea in autumn 2009 was anomalously low and the possible impact from Arctic for the extreme cold events has not been presented. To investigate the influence from the Arctic, we designed three model runs using Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). Each simulation differs by the prescribed surface boundary conditions: (a) CTRL - climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice concentration (SIC) are prescribed everywhere, (b) EXP_65N - SST and SIC inside the Arctic circle (north of 65°N) are replaced by 2009/2010 values. Elsewhere, the climatology is used, (c) EXP_BK - Same with (b) except that SIC and SST are fixed only over Barents/Kara Sea where the sea-ice area dropped significantly in 2009/2010 winter. Model results from EXP_65N and EXP_BK commonly showed a large increase of air temperature in the lower troposphere where Arctic sea-ice showed a large reduction. Also, compared with the observation, model successfully captured thickened geopotential height in the Arctic and showed downstream wave propagation toward midlatitude. From the analysis, we reveal that this large dipolar Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection pattern in the upper troposphere easily propagate upward and played a role in the weakening of polar vortex. This is also confirmed in the observation. However, the timing of excitation of upward propagating wave in EXP_65N and EXP_BK were different and thus the timing of

Discrepancies in simultaneous explanation of flavor anomalies and IceCube PeV events using leptoquarks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauhan, Bhavesh; Kindra, Bharti; Narang, Ashish

2018-05-01

Leptoquarks have been suggested to solve a variety of discrepancies between the expected and observed phenomenon. In this paper, we show that the scalar doublet leptoquark with hypercharge 7 /6 can simultaneously explain the recent measurement of RK, RK*, the excess in anomalous magnetic moment of muon, and the observed excess in IceCube high energy starting events data. For an appropriate choice of couplings, the flavor anomalies are generated at one-loop level and IceCube data is explained via resonant production of the leptoquark. Several constraints from LHC searches are imposed on the model parameter space.

The structure and effect of suture zones in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, Daniel; Steffen, Konrad; Holland, Paul R.; Scambos, Ted; Rajaram, Harihar; Abdalati, Waleed; Rignot, Eric

2014-03-01

Ice shelf fractures frequently terminate where they encounter suture zones, regions of material heterogeneity that form between meteoric inflows in ice shelves. This heterogeneity can consist of marine ice, meteoric ice with modified rheological properties, or the presence of fractures. Here, we use radar observations on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to investigate (i) the termination of a 25 km long rift in the Churchill Peninsula suture zone, which was found to contain 60 m of accreted marine ice, and (ii) the along-flow evolution of a suture zone originating at Cole Peninsula. We determine a steady state field of basal melting/freezing rates and apply it to a flowline model to delineate the along-flow evolution of layers within the ice shelf. The thickening surface wedge of locally accumulated meteoric ice, which likely has limited lateral variation in its mechanical properties, accounts for 60% of the total ice thickness near the calving front. Thus, we infer that the lower 40% of the ice column and the material heterogeneities present there are responsible for resisting fracture propagation and thereby delaying tabular calving events, as demonstrated in the >40 year time series leading up to the 2004/2005 calving event for Larsen C. This likely represents a highly sensitive aspect of ice shelf stability, as changes in the oceanic forcing may lead to the loss of this heterogeneity.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-12-17

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: DEMs, orthophotos, surface velocities, and ice loss derived from photogrammetric re-analysis of July 1985 repeat aerial photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motyka, R.; Fahnestock, M.; Howat, I.; Truffer, M.; Brecher, H.; Luethi, M.

2008-12-01

Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet and is the ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. Two sets of high elevation (~13,500 m), high resolution (2 m) aerial photographs of Jakobshavn Isbrae were obtained about two weeks apart during July 1985 (Fastook et al, 1995). These historic photo sets have become increasingly important for documenting and understanding the dynamic state of this outlet stream prior to the rapid retreat and massive ice loss that began in 1998 and continues today. The original photogrammetric analysis of this imagery is summarized in Fastook et al. (1995). They derived a coarse DEM (3 km grid spacing) covering an area of approximately 100 km x 100 km by interpolating several hundred positions determined manually from block-aerial triangulation. We have re-analyzed these photos sets using digital photogrammetry (BAE Socet Set©) and significantly improved DEM quality and resolution (20, 50, and 100 m grids). The DEMs were in turn used to produce high quality orthophoto mosaics. Comparing our 1985 DEM to a DEM we derived from May 2006 NASA ATM measurements showed a total ice volume loss of ~ 105 km3 over the lower drainage area; almost all of this loss has occurred since 1997. Ice stream surface velocities derived from the 1985 orthomosaics showed speeds of 20 m/d on the floating tongue, diminishing to 5 m/d at 50 km further upstream. Velocities have since nearly doubled along the ice stream during its current retreat. Fastook, J.L., H.H. Brecher, and T.J. Hughes, 1995. J.of Glaciol. 11 (137), 161-173.

Method for early detection of cooling-loss events

DOEpatents

Bermudez, Sergio A.; Hamann, Hendrik; Marianno, Fernando J.

2015-06-30

A method of detecting cooling-loss event early is provided. The method includes defining a relative humidity limit and change threshold for a given space, measuring relative humidity in the given space, determining, with a processing unit, whether the measured relative humidity is within the defined relative humidity limit, generating a warning in an event the measured relative humidity is outside the defined relative humidity limit and determining whether a change in the measured relative humidity is less than the defined change threshold for the given space and generating an alarm in an event the change is greater than the defined change threshold.

Method for early detection of cooling-loss events

DOEpatents

Bermudez, Sergio A.; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Marianno, Fernando J.

2015-12-22

A method of detecting cooling-loss event early is provided. The method includes defining a relative humidity limit and change threshold for a given space, measuring relative humidity in the given space, determining, with a processing unit, whether the measured relative humidity is within the defined relative humidity limit, generating a warning in an event the measured relative humidity is outside the defined relative humidity limit and determining whether a change in the measured relative humidity is less than the defined change threshold for the given space and generating an alarm in an event the change is greater than the defined change threshold.

Polar zoobenthos blue carbon storage increases with sea ice losses, because across-shelf growth gains from longer algal blooms outweigh ice scour mortality in the shallows.

PubMed

Barnes, David K A

2017-12-01

One of the major climate-forced global changes has been white to blue to green; losses of sea ice extent in time and space around Arctic and West Antarctic seas has increased open water and the duration (though not magnitude) of phytoplankton blooms. Blueing of the poles has increases potential for heat absorption for positive feedback but conversely the longer phytoplankton blooms have increased carbon export to storage and sequestration by shelf benthos. However, ice shelf collapses and glacier retreat can calve more icebergs, and the increased open water allows icebergs more opportunities to scour the seabed, reducing zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage. Here the size and variability in benthic blue carbon in mega and macrobenthos was assessed in time and space at Ryder and Marguerite bays of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In particular the influence of the duration of primary productivity and ice scour are investigated from the shallows to typical shelf depths of 500 m. Ice scour frequency dominated influence on benthic blue carbon at 5 m, to comparable with phytoplankton duration by 25 m depth. At 500 m only phytoplankton duration was significant and influential. WAP zoobenthos was calculated to generate ~10 7 , 4.5 × 10 6 and 1.6 × 10 6 tonnes per year (between 2002 and 2015) in terms of production, immobilization and sequestration of carbon respectively. Thus about 1% of annual primary productivity has sequestration potential at the end of the trophic cascade. Polar zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage responses to sea ice losses, the largest negative feedback on climate change, has been underestimated despite some offsetting of gain by increased ice scouring with more open water. Equivalent survey of Arctic and sub-Antarctic shelves, for which new projects have started, should reveal the true extent of this feedback and how much its variability contributes to uncertainty in climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiyear ice transport and small scale sea ice deformation near the Alaska coast measured by air-deployable Ice Trackers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, A. R.; Kasper, J.; Winsor, P.

2015-12-01

Highly complex patterns of ice motion and deformation were captured by fifteen satellite-telemetered GPS buoys (known as Ice Trackers) deployed near Barrow, Alaska, in spring 2015. Two pentagonal clusters of buoys were deployed on pack ice by helicopter in the Beaufort Sea between 20 and 80 km offshore. During deployment, ice motion in the study region was effectively zero, but two days later the buoys captured a rapid transport event in which multiyear ice from the Beaufort Sea was flushed into the Chukchi Sea. During this event, westward ice motion began in the Chukchi Sea and propagated eastward. This created new openings in the ice and led to rapid elongation of the clusters as the westernmost buoys accelerated away from their neighbors to the east. The buoys tracked ice velocities of over 1.5 ms-1, with fastest motion occurring closest to the coast indicating strong current shear. Three days later, ice motion reversed and the two clusters became intermingled, rendering divergence calculations based on the area enclosed by clusters invalid. The data show no detectable difference in velocity between first year and multiyear ice floes, but Lagrangian timeseries of SAR imagery centered on each buoy show that first year ice underwent significant small-scale deformation during the event. The five remaining buoys were deployed by local residents on prominent ridges embedded in the landfast ice within 16 km of Barrow in order to track the fate of such features after they detached from the coast. Break-up of the landfast ice took place over a period of several days and, although the buoys each initially followed a similar eastward trajectory around Point Barrow into the Beaufort Sea, they rapidly dispersed over an area more than 50 km across. With rapid environmental and socio-economic change in the Arctic, understanding the complexity of nearshore ice motion is increasingly important for predict future changes in the ice and the tracking ice-related hazards

Modeling Wave-Ice Interactions in the Marginal Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Shi, Fengyan; Bateman, Sam; Veeramony, Jay; Calantoni, Joe

2015-04-01

The small-scale (O(m)) interactions between waves and ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) are investigated with a coupled model system. Waves are simulated with the non-hydrostatic finite-volume model NHWAVE (Ma et al., 2012) and ice floes are represented as bonded collections of smaller particles with the discrete element system LIGGGHTS (Kloss et al., 2012). The physics of fluid and ice are recreated as authentically as possible, to allow the coupled system to supplement and/or substitute for more costly and demanding field experiments. The presentation will first describe the development and validation of the coupled system, then discuss the results of a series of virtual experiments in which ice floe and wave characteristics are varied to examine their effects on energy dissipation, MIZ floe size distribution, and ice pack retreat rates. Although Wadhams et al. (1986) suggest that only a small portion (roughly 10%) of wave energy entering the MIZ is reflected, dissipation mechanisms for the remaining energy have yet to be delineated or measured. The virtual experiments are designed to focus on specific properties and processes - such as floe size and shape, collision and fracturing events, and variations in wave climate - and measure their relative roles the transfer of energy and momentum from waves to ice. Questions to be examined include: How is energy dissipated by ice floe collisions, fracturing, and drag, and how significant is the wave attenuation associated with each process? Do specific wave/floe length scale ratios cause greater wave attenuation? How does ice material strength affect the rate of wave energy loss? The coupled system will ultimately be used to test and improve upon wave-ice parameterizations for large-scale climate models. References: >Kloss, C., C. Goniva, A. Hager, S. Amberger, and S. Pirker (2012). Models, algorithms and validation for opensource DEM and CFD-DEM. Progress in Computational Fluid Dynamics 12(2/3), 140-152. >Ma, G

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Karina; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Spada, Giorgio; Wahr, John; Bevis, Michael; Liu, Lin; van Dam, Tonie

2013-04-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal surface displacements from 2006 to 2012 at four GPS sites located between ˜5 and ˜150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) in west Greenland. Horizontal displacements during 2006-2010 at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed toward north-west, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is located near the frontal portion of JI. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modeled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006, 2009, and 2010. However, horizontal displacements during 2010-2012 at KAGA and ILUL are directed more towards the west suggesting a change in the spatial distribution of the ice mass loss. In addition, we observe an increase in the uplift rate during 2010-2012 as compared to 2006-2010. The sudden change in vertical and horizontal displacements is due to enhanced melt-induced ice loss in 2010 and 2012.

Detrital Carbonate Events on the Labrador Shelf, a 13 to 7 kyr Template for Freshwater Forcing From the Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, A. E.; Andrews, J. T.

2008-12-01

A complex sequence of abrupt glacial advances and retreats punctuate the late phases of Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation. These episodes have been reconstructed from interpretation and mapping of glacial deposits on land and in marine basins proximal to the former ice margins in Hudson Strait, Hudson Bay, and the SE Baffin Island shelf. As these events likely produced pulses of freshwater discharge into the North Altantic, which may be responsible for rapid climate change, their timing and magnitude need to be understood. The timing of these events is well constrained by radiocarbon ages, but the ocean reservoir age in ice proximal areas is subject to very large uncertainties, making it difficult to determine calibrated ages for the glacial events so that they can be compared to other climate records. We suggest that the sequence of high detrital carbonate peaks in Holocene and Late Glacial sediments in the Cartwright Saddle of the Labrador shelf provides a template of the abrupt glacial events of the NE margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, particularly events that issued from Hudson Strait and Hudson Bay, but possibly including events in Baffin Bay. Once the Labrador Shelf was deglaciated and the local ice had retreated inland, the Cartwright Saddle was a distal trap for sediments released from Hudson Strait and other ice sheet outlets farther north as their sediments and meltwater were carried southwards by surface currents. Core MD99-2236 contains a sediment record beginning c. 13.9 cal ka. We assume a marine reservoir age for the Cartwright Saddle of 450 yrs, which is reasonable given the ice distal and oceanic position of the site. Carbonate was measured on average at a 30 yr time resolution. Carbonate values are elevated between 11.7 and 7 cal kyr BP, with six spikes exceeding 30 percent. Each spike corresponds to a light isotope spike in foraminifers, suggesting that each major spike is associated with a pulse of glacial meltwater. Elevated IRD counts

Contribution of Deformation to Sea Ice Mass Balance: A Case Study From an N-ICE2015 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itkin, Polona; Spreen, Gunnar; Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Skourup, Henriette; Wilkinson, Jeremy; Gerland, Sebastian; Granskog, Mats A.

2018-01-01

The fastest and most efficient process of gaining sea ice volume is through the mechanical redistribution of mass as a consequence of deformation events. During the ice growth season divergent motion produces leads where new ice grows thermodynamically, while convergent motion fractures the ice and either piles the resultant ice blocks into ridges or rafts one floe under the other. Here we present an exceptionally detailed airborne data set from a 9 km2 area of first year and second year ice in the Transpolar Drift north of Svalbard that allowed us to estimate the redistribution of mass from an observed deformation event. To achieve this level of detail we analyzed changes in sea ice freeboard acquired from two airborne laser scanner surveys just before and right after a deformation event brought on by a passing low-pressure system. A linear regression model based on divergence during this storm can explain 64% of freeboard variability. Over the survey region we estimated that about 1.3% of level sea ice volume was pressed together into deformed ice and the new ice formed in leads in a week after the deformation event would increase the sea ice volume by 0.5%. As the region is impacted by about 15 storms each winter, a simple linear extrapolation would result in about 7% volume increase and 20% deformed ice fraction at the end of the season.

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

Collaborative, International Efforts at Estimating Arctic Sea Ice Processes During IPY (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2009-12-01

. Ultimately, neither extreme was observed. For September 2009 the median projection based on June 2009 data was 4.6 MSQK. June and July conditions were favorable for another record ice loss, but atmospheric circulation and cloudiness in August slowed ice retreat, suggesting that the 2009 Outlook estimates will be too low. A conclusion of this IPY effort is that although it will be difficult for summer sea ice to return to 1990 conditions, it will also require near-perfect synchrony in physical forcing as in 2007 to produce the next major loss event. The Outlook plans to continue.

Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, P. R.; Brisbourne, A.; Corr, H. F. J.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Purdon, K.; Paden, J.; Fricker, H. A.; Paolo, F. S.; Fleming, A.H.

2015-01-01

The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr−1) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr−1) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr−1). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Breaking Ice: Fracture Processes in Floating Ice on Earth and Elsewhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.

2016-12-01

Rapid, intense fracturing events in the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula reveal a set of processes that were not fully appreciated prior to the series of ice shelf break-ups observed in the late 1990s and early 2000s. A series of studies have uncovered a fascinating array of relationships between climate, ocean, and ice: intense widespread hydrofracture; repetitive hydrofracture induced by ice plate bending; the ability for sub-surface flooded firn to support hydrofracture; potential triggering by long-period wave action; accelerated fracturing by trapped tsunamic waves; iceberg disintegration, and a remarkable ice rebound process from lake drainage that resembles runaway nuclear fission. The events and subsequent studies have shown that rapid regional warming in ice shelf areas leads to catastrophic changes in a previously stable ice mass. More typical fracturing of thick ice plates is a natural consequence of ice flow in a complex geographic setting, i.e., it is induced by shear and divergence of spreading plate flow around obstacles. While these are not a result of climate or ocean change, weather and ocean processes may impact the exact timing of final separation of an iceberg from a shelf. Taking these terrestrial perspectives to other ice-covered ocean worlds, cautiously, provides an observational framework for interpreting features on Europa and Enceladus.

The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.

1950-01-01

Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.

Impacts of winter icing events on the growth, phenology and physiology of sub-arctic dwarf shrubs.

PubMed

Preece, Catherine; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

2012-12-01

The Arctic is experiencing the greatest climate change in winter, including increases in freeze-thaw cycles that can result in ice encasement of vegetation. Ice encasement can expose plants to hypoxia and greater temperature extremes, but currently the impacts of icing on plants in the field remain little understood. With this in mind, a unique field manipulation experiment was established in heathland in northern Sweden with ice encasement simulated in early March 2008, 2009 and 2010 until natural thaw each spring. In the following summers we assessed the impacts on flowering, bud phenology, shoot growth and mortality and leaf damage (measured by chlorophyll fluorescence and electrolyte leakage) of the three dominant dwarf shrub species Empetrum nigrum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea (both evergreen) and Vaccinium myrtillus (deciduous). Two consecutive winters of icing decreased V. vitis-idaea flowering by 57%, while flowering of V. myrtillus and E. nigrum remained unaffected. Vaccinium myrtillus showed earlier budburst but shoot growth for all species was unchanged. Shoot mortality of V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea increased after the first year (by 70 and 165%, respectively) and again for V. myrtillus following the third year (by 67%), while E. nigrum shoot mortality remained unaffected, as were chlorophyll fluorescence and electrolyte leakage in all species. Overall, the sub-arctic heathland was relatively tolerant to icing, but the considerable shoot mortality of V. myrtillus contrasting with the general tolerance of E. nigrum suggests plant community structure in the longer term could change if winters continue to see a greater frequency of icing events. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Wilkins Ice Shelf

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-04-20

The Wilkins Ice Shelf, as seen by NASA Terra spacecraft, on the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula, experienced multiple disintegration events in 2008. By the beginning of 2009, a narrow ice bridge was all that remained to connect the ice shelf to ice fragments fringing nearby Charcot Island. That bridge gave way in early April 2009. Days after the ice bridge rupture, on April 12, 2009, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this image of the southern base of the ice bridge, where it connected with the remnant ice shelf. Although the ice bridge has played a role in stabilizing the ice fragments in the region, its rupture doesn't guarantee the ice will immediately move away. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA11991

Export of Algal Communities from Land Fast Arctic Sea Ice Influenced by Overlying Snow Depth and Episodic Rain Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuer, S.; Juhl, A. R.; Aumack, C.; McHugh, C.; Wolverton, M. A.; Kinzler, K.

2016-02-01

Sea ice algal communities dominate primary production of the coastal Arctic Ocean in spring. As the sea ice bloom terminates, algae are released from the ice into the underlying, nutrient-rich waters, potentially seeding blooms and feeding higher trophic levels in the water column and benthos. We studied the sea ice community including export events over four consecutive field seasons (2011-2014) during the spring ice algae bloom in land-fast ice near Barrow, Alaska, allowing us to investigate both seasonal and interannual differences. Within each year, we observed a delay in algal export from ice in areas covered by thicker snow compared to areas with thinner snow coverage. Variability in snow cover therefore resulted in a prolonged supply of organic matter to the underlying water column. Earlier export in 2012 was followed by a shift in the diatom community within the ice from pennates to centrics. During an unusual warm period in early May 2014, precipitation falling as rain substantially decreased the snow cover thickness (from snow depth > 20 cm down to 0-2 cm). After the early snowmelt, algae were rapidly lost from the sea ice, and a subsequent bloom of taxonomically-distinct, under-ice phytoplankton developed a few days later. The typical immured sea ice diatoms never recovered in terms of biomass, though pennate diatoms (predominantly Nitzschia frigida) did regrow to some extent near the ice bottom. Sinking rates of the under-ice phytoplankton were much more variable than those of ice algae particles, which would potentially impact residence time in the water column, and fluxes to the benthos. Thus, the early melt episode, triggered by rain, transitioned directly into the seasonal melt and the release of biomass from the ice, shifting production from sea ice to the water column, with as-of-yet unknown consequences for the springtime Arctic food web.

An Initial Study of the Fundamentals of Ice Crystal Icing Physics in the NASA Propulsion Systems Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Struk, Peter; Bartkus, Tadas; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Bencic, Timothy; King, Michael; Ratvasky, Thomas; Van Zante, Judith

2017-01-01

This presentation shows results from an initial study of the fundamental physics of ice-crystal ice accretion using the NASA Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL). Ice accretion due to the ingestion of ice-crystals is being attributed to numerous jet-engine power-loss events. The NASA PSL is an altitude jet-engine test facility which has recently added a capability to inject ice particles into the flow. NASA is evaluating whether this facility, in addition to full-engine and motor-driven-rig tests, can be used for more fundamental ice-accretion studies that simulate the different mixed-phase icing conditions along the core flow passage of a turbo-fan engine compressor. The data from such fundamental accretion tests will be used to help develop and validate models of the accretion process. The present study utilized a NACA0012 airfoil. The mixed-phase conditions were generated by partially freezing the liquid-water droplets ejected from the spray bars. This presentation shows data regarding (1) the freeze out characteristics of the cloud, (2) changes in aerothermal conditions due to the presence of the cloud, and (3) the ice accretion characteristics observed on the airfoil model. The primary variable in this test was the PSL plenum humidity which was systematically varied for two duct-exit-plane velocities (85 and 135 ms) as well as two particle size clouds (15 and 50 m MVDi). The observed clouds ranged from fully glaciated to fully liquid, where the liquid clouds were at least partially supercooled. The air total temperature decreased at the test section when the cloud was activated due to evaporation. The ice accretions observed ranged from sharp arrow-like accretions, characteristic of ice-crystal erosion, to cases with double-horn shapes, characteristic of supercooled water accretions.

An Initial Study of the Fundamentals of Ice Crystal Icing Physics in the NASA Propulsion Systems Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Struk, Peter M.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Bencic, Timothy J.; Van Zante, Judith F.; King, Michael C.; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Bartkus, Tadas P.

2017-01-01

This paper presents results from an initial study of the fundamental physics of ice-crystal ice accretion using the NASA Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL). Ice accretion due to the ingestion of ice-crystals is being attributed to numerous jet-engine power-loss events. The NASA PSL is an altitude jet-engine test facility which has recently added a capability to inject ice particles into the flow. NASA is evaluating whether this facility, in addition to full-engine and motor-driven-rig tests, can be used for more fundamental ice-accretion studies that simulate the different mixed-phase icing conditions along the core flow passage of a turbo-fan engine compressor. The data from such fundamental accretion tests will be used to help develop and validate models of the accretion process. The present study utilized a NACA0012 airfoil. The mixed-phase conditions were generated by partially freezing the liquid-water droplets ejected from the spray bars. This paper presents data regarding (1) the freeze out characteristics of the cloud, (2) changes in aerothermal conditions due to the presence of the cloud, and (3) the ice accretion characteristics observed on the airfoil model. The primary variable in this test was the PSL plenum humidity which was systematically varied for two duct-exit-plane velocities (85 and 135 ms) as well as two particle size clouds (15 and 50 m MVDi). The observed clouds ranged from fully glaciated to fully liquid, where the liquid clouds were at least partially supercooled. The air total temperature decreased at the test section when the cloud was activated due to evaporation. The ice accretions observed ranged from sharp arrow-like accretions, characteristic of ice-crystal erosion, to cases with double-horn shapes, characteristic of supercooled water accretions.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

46 CFR 308.515 - Payment in event of loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.515 Payment in event of loss. All..., together with appropriate declarations as required by Clause 9, and such further data as may now or...

46 CFR 308.515 - Payment in event of loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.515 Payment in event of loss. All..., together with appropriate declarations as required by Clause 9, and such further data as may now or...

Ice Particle Analysis of the Honeywell AL502 Engine Booster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bidwell, Colin S.; Rigby, David L.

2015-01-01

A flow and ice particle trajectory analysis was performed for the booster of the Honeywell ALF502 engine. The analysis focused on two closely related conditions one of which produced an icing event and another which did not during testing of the ALF502 engine in the Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The flow analysis was generated using the NASA Glenn GlennHT flow solver and the particle analysis was generated using the NASA Glenn LEWICE3D v3.63 ice accretion software. The inflow conditions for the two conditions were similar with the main differences being that the condition that produced the icing event was 6.8 K colder than the non-icing event case and the inflow ice water content (IWC) for the non-icing event case was 50% less than for the icing event case. The particle analysis, which considered sublimation, evaporation and phase change, was generated for a 5 micron ice particle with a sticky impact model and for a 24 micron median volume diameter (MVD), 7 bin ice particle distribution with a supercooled large droplet (SLD) splash model used to simulate ice particle breakup. The particle analysis did not consider the effect of the runback and re-impingement of water resulting from the heated spinner and anti-icing system. The results from the analysis showed that the amount of impingement for the components were similar for the same particle size and impact model for the icing and non-icing event conditions. This was attributed to the similar aerodynamic conditions in the booster for the two cases. The particle temperature and melt fraction were higher at the same location and particle size for the non-icing event than for the icing event case due to the higher incoming inflow temperature for the non-event case. The 5 micron ice particle case produced higher impact temperatures and higher melt fractions on the components downstream of the fan than the 24 micron MVD case because the average particle size generated by the particle

Landfast Sea Ice Breakouts: Stabilizing Ice Features, Oceanic and Atmospheric Forcing at Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.; MV, R.; Kambhamettu, C.; Fukamachi, Y.; Ohshima, K. I.; George, C.

2016-12-01

Landfast sea ice is an important seasonal feature along most Arctic coastlines, such as that of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska. Its stability throughout the ice season is determined by many factors but grounded pressure ridges are the primary stabilizing component. Landfast ice breakouts occur when these grounded ridges fail or unground, and previously stationary ice detaches from the coast and drifts away. Using ground-based radar imagery from a coastal ice and ocean observatory at Barrow, we have developed a method to estimate the extent of grounded ridges by tracking ice motion and deformation over the course of winter and have derived ice keel depth and potential for grounding from cumulative convergent ice motion. Estimates of landfast ice grounding strength have been compared to the atmospheric and oceanic stresses acting on the landfast ice before and during breakout events to determine prevailing causes for the failure of stabilizing features. Applying this approach to two case studies in 2008 and 2010, we conclude that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic stresses may have caused the breakouts analyzed in this study, with the latter as the dominant force. Preconditioning (as weakening) of grounded ridges by sea level variations may facilitate failure of the ice sheet leading to breakout events.

Landfast sea ice breakouts: Stabilizing ice features, oceanic and atmospheric forcing at Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Joshua; Eicken, Hajo; Mahoney, Andrew; MV, Rohith; Kambhamettu, Chandra; Fukamachi, Yasushi; Ohshima, Kay I.; George, J. Craig

2016-09-01

Landfast sea ice is an important seasonal feature along most Arctic coastlines, such as that of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska. Its stability throughout the ice season is determined by many factors but grounded pressure ridges are the primary stabilizing component. Landfast ice breakouts occur when these grounded ridges fail or unground, and previously stationary ice detaches from the coast and drifts away. Using ground-based radar imagery from a coastal ice and ocean observatory at Barrow, we have developed a method to estimate the extent of grounded ridges by tracking ice motion and deformation over the course of winter and have derived ice keel depth and potential for grounding from cumulative convergent ice motion. Estimates of landfast ice grounding strength have been compared to the atmospheric and oceanic stresses acting on the landfast ice before and during breakout events to determine prevailing causes for the failure of stabilizing features. Applying this approach to two case studies in 2008 and 2010, we conclude that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic stresses may have caused the breakouts analyzed in this study, with the latter as the dominant force. Preconditioning (as weakening) of grounded ridges by sea level variations may facilitate failure of the ice sheet leading to breakout events.

Icing flight research: Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes was obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft darg coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (C sub d) of 0.5.

Icing flight research - Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes were obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft drag coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (c sub d) of 0.5.

Ice Nucleation in Deep Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, Eric; Ackerman, Andrew; Stevens, David; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The processes controlling production of ice crystals in deep, rapidly ascending convective columns are poorly understood due to the difficulties involved with either modeling or in situ sampling of these violent clouds. A large number of ice crystals are no doubt generated when droplets freeze at about -40 C. However, at higher levels, these crystals are likely depleted due to precipitation and detrainment. As the ice surface area decreases, the relative humidity can increase well above ice saturation, resulting in bursts of ice nucleation. We will present simulations of these processes using a large-eddy simulation model with detailed microphysics. Size bins are included for aerosols, liquid droplets, ice crystals, and mixed-phase (ice/liquid) hydrometers. Microphysical processes simulated include droplet activation, freezing, melting, homogeneous freezing of sulfate aerosols, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. We are focusing on the importance of ice nucleation events in the upper part of the cloud at temperatures below -40 C. We will show that the ultimate evolution of the cloud in this region (and the anvil produced by the convection) is sensitive to these ice nucleation events, and hence to the composition of upper tropospheric aerosols that get entrained into the convective column.

Atmospheric icing of structures: Observations and simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ágústsson, H.; Elíasson, Á. J.; Thorsteins, E.; Rögnvaldsson, Ó.; Ólafsson, H.

2012-04-01

This study compares observed icing in a test span in complex orography at Hallormsstaðaháls (575 m) in East-Iceland with parameterized icing based on an icing model and dynamically downscaled weather at high horizontal resolution. Four icing events have been selected from an extensive dataset of observed atmospheric icing in Iceland. A total of 86 test-spans have been erected since 1972 at 56 locations in complex terrain with more than 1000 icing events documented. The events used here have peak observed ice load between 4 and 36 kg/m. Most of the ice accretion is in-cloud icing but it may partly be mixed with freezing drizzle and wet snow icing. The calculation of atmospheric icing is made in two steps. First the atmospheric data is created by dynamically downscaling the ECMWF-analysis to high resolution using the non-hydrostatic mesoscale Advanced Research WRF-model. The horizontal resolution of 9, 3, 1 and 0.33 km is necessary to allow the atmospheric model to reproduce correctly local weather in the complex terrain of Iceland. Secondly, the Makkonen-model is used to calculate the ice accretion rate on the conductors based on the simulated temperature, wind, cloud and precipitation variables from the atmospheric data. In general, the atmospheric model correctly simulates the atmospheric variables and icing calculations based on the atmospheric variables correctly identify the observed icing events, but underestimate the load due to too slow ice accretion. This is most obvious when the temperature is slightly below 0°C and the observed icing is most intense. The model results improve significantly when additional observations of weather from an upstream weather station are used to nudge the atmospheric model. However, the large variability in the simulated atmospheric variables results in high temporal and spatial variability in the calculated ice accretion. Furthermore, there is high sensitivity of the icing model to the droplet size and the possibility that

Two-component flux explanation for the high energy neutrino events at IceCube

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Chien-Yi; Dev, P. S. Bhupal; Soni, Amarjit

In understanding the spectral and flavor composition of the astrophysical neutrino flux responsible for the recently observed ultrahigh-energy events at IceCube we see how important both astrophysics and particle physics are. Here, we perform a statistical likelihood analysis to the three-year IceCube data and derive the allowed range of the spectral index and flux normalization for various well-motivated physical flavor compositions at the source. While most of the existing analyses so far assume the flavor composition of the neutrinos at an astrophysical source to be (1:2:0), it seems rather unnatural to assume only one type of source, once we recognizemore » the possibility of at least two physical sources. Bearing this in mind, we entertain the possibility of a two-component source for the analysis of IceCube data. It appears that our two-component hypothesis explains some key features of the data better than a single-component scenario; i.e. it addresses the apparent energy gap between 400 TeV and about 1 PeV and easily accommodates the observed track-to-shower ratio. Given the extreme importance of the flavor composition for the correct interpretation of the underlying astrophysical processes as well as for the ramification for particle physics, this two-component flux should be tested as more data is accumulated.« less

Two-component flux explanation for the high energy neutrino events at IceCube

DOE PAGES

Chen, Chien-Yi; Dev, P. S. Bhupal; Soni, Amarjit

2015-10-01

In understanding the spectral and flavor composition of the astrophysical neutrino flux responsible for the recently observed ultrahigh-energy events at IceCube we see how important both astrophysics and particle physics are. Here, we perform a statistical likelihood analysis to the three-year IceCube data and derive the allowed range of the spectral index and flux normalization for various well-motivated physical flavor compositions at the source. While most of the existing analyses so far assume the flavor composition of the neutrinos at an astrophysical source to be (1:2:0), it seems rather unnatural to assume only one type of source, once we recognizemore » the possibility of at least two physical sources. Bearing this in mind, we entertain the possibility of a two-component source for the analysis of IceCube data. It appears that our two-component hypothesis explains some key features of the data better than a single-component scenario; i.e. it addresses the apparent energy gap between 400 TeV and about 1 PeV and easily accommodates the observed track-to-shower ratio. Given the extreme importance of the flavor composition for the correct interpretation of the underlying astrophysical processes as well as for the ramification for particle physics, this two-component flux should be tested as more data is accumulated.« less

Remote Sensing Techniques for Rapid Assessment of Forest Damage Caused by Catastrophic Climatic Events, NA-TP-01-01

Treesearch

William Ciesla; William Frament; Margaret Miller-Weeks

2001-01-01

Catastrophic climatic events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and ice storms can cause billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and personal property, loss of lives, and damage to natural resources. Forests are especially susceptible to these events. The following is a list of recent climatic events in North America that have had devastating effects on forest...

Simultaneous event-specific estimates of transport, loss, and source rates for relativistic outer radiation belt electrons: Event-Specific 1-D Modeling

DOE PAGES

Schiller, Q.; Tu, W.; Ali, A. F.; ...

2017-03-11

The most significant unknown regarding relativistic electrons in Earth’s outer Van Allen radiation belt is the relative contribution of loss, transport, and acceleration processes within the inner magnetosphere. Detangling each individual process is critical to improve the understanding of radiation belt dynamics, but determining a single component is challenging due to sparse measurements in diverse spatial and temporal regimes. However, there are currently an unprecedented number of spacecraft taking measurements that sample different regions of the inner magnetosphere. With the increasing number of varied observational platforms, system dynamics can begin to be unraveled. In this work, we employ in-situ measurementsmore » during the 13-14 January 2013 enhancement event to isolate transport, loss, and source dynamics in a one dimensional radial diffusion model. We then validate the results by comparing them to Van Allen Probes and THEMIS observations, indicating that the three terms have been accurately and individually quantified for the event. Finally, a direct comparison is performed between the model containing event-specific terms and various models containing terms parameterized by geomagnetic index. Models using a simple 3/Kp loss timescale show deviation from the event specific model of nearly two orders of magnitude within 72 hours of the enhancement event. However, models using alternative loss timescales closely resemble the event specific model.« less

Simultaneous event-specific estimates of transport, loss, and source rates for relativistic outer radiation belt electrons: Event-Specific 1-D Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schiller, Q.; Tu, W.; Ali, A. F.

The most significant unknown regarding relativistic electrons in Earth’s outer Van Allen radiation belt is the relative contribution of loss, transport, and acceleration processes within the inner magnetosphere. Detangling each individual process is critical to improve the understanding of radiation belt dynamics, but determining a single component is challenging due to sparse measurements in diverse spatial and temporal regimes. However, there are currently an unprecedented number of spacecraft taking measurements that sample different regions of the inner magnetosphere. With the increasing number of varied observational platforms, system dynamics can begin to be unraveled. In this work, we employ in-situ measurementsmore » during the 13-14 January 2013 enhancement event to isolate transport, loss, and source dynamics in a one dimensional radial diffusion model. We then validate the results by comparing them to Van Allen Probes and THEMIS observations, indicating that the three terms have been accurately and individually quantified for the event. Finally, a direct comparison is performed between the model containing event-specific terms and various models containing terms parameterized by geomagnetic index. Models using a simple 3/Kp loss timescale show deviation from the event specific model of nearly two orders of magnitude within 72 hours of the enhancement event. However, models using alternative loss timescales closely resemble the event specific model.« less

Little Ice Age Fluctuations of Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroup, J. S.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T.

2009-12-01

A record of the past extents of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) provides valuable information about tropical climate change from late glacial to recent time. Here, we examine the timing and regional significance of fluctuations of QIC during the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1300-1850 AD). One prominent set of moraines, known as the Huancane I moraines, is located ~1 km from the present-day western ice cap margin and provides a near-continuous outline of the most recent advance of QIC. This moraine set was radiocarbon dated (~298 ± 134 and 831 ± 87 yr BP) by Mercer and Palacios (1977) and presented as some of the first evidence for cooling in the tropics during the Little Ice Age. Recent field investigations in the QIC region focused on refining the chronology of the Huancane I moraines. In 2008, new stratigraphic sections exposed by local lake-flooding events revealed multiple layers of peat within the Huancane I moraines. In both 2008 and 2009, samples were obtained for 10Be dating of boulders on Huancane I moraines. A combination of radiocarbon and 10Be ages indicate that the Huancane I moraines were deposited by ice cap expansion after ~3800 yr BP and likely by multiple advances at approximately 1000, 600, 400, and 200 yr BP. Radiocarbon and 10Be chronologies of the Huancane I moraines are compared with the Quelccaya ice core records (Thompson et al., 1985; 1986; 2006). Accumulation data from the ice core records are interpreted to indicate a significant wet period at ~1500-1700 AD followed by a significant drought at ~1720-1860 AD. We examine ice marginal fluctuations during these times to determine influence of such events on the ice cap extent.

Validation Ice Crystal Icing Engine Test in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at NASA Glenn Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) is an existing altitude simulation jet engine test facility located at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, OH. It was modified in 2012 with the integration of an ice crystal cloud generation system. This paper documents the inaugural ice crystal cloud test in PSL--the first ever full scale, high altitude ice crystal cloud turbofan engine test to be conducted in a ground based facility. The test article was a Lycoming ALF502-R5 high bypass turbofan engine, serial number LF01. The objectives of the test were to validate the PSL ice crystal cloud calibration and engine testing methodologies by demonstrating the capability to calibrate and duplicate known flight test events that occurred on the same LF01 engine and to generate engine data to support fundamental and computational research to investigate and better understand the physics of ice crystal icing in a turbofan engine environment while duplicating known revenue service events and conducting test points while varying facility and engine parameters. During PSL calibration testing it was discovered than heated probes installed through tunnel sidewalls experienced ice buildup aft of their location due to ice crystals impinging upon them, melting and running back. Filtered city water was used in the cloud generation nozzle system to provide ice crystal nucleation sites. This resulted in mineralization forming on flow path hardware that led to a chronic degradation of performance during the month long test. Lacking internal flow path cameras, the response of thermocouples along the flow path was interpreted as ice building up. Using this interpretation, a strong correlation between total water content (TWC) and a weaker correlation between median volumetric diameter (MVD) of the ice crystal cloud and the rate of ice buildup along the instrumented flow path was identified. For this test article the engine anti-ice system was required to be turned on before ice crystal

Validation Ice Crystal Icing Engine Test in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at NASA Glenn Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) is an existing altitude simulation jet engine test facility located at NASA Glenn Research Center in Clevleand, OH. It was modified in 2012 with the integration of an ice crystal cloud generation system. This paper documents the inaugural ice crystal cloud test in PSLthe first ever full scale, high altitude ice crystal cloud turbofan engine test to be conducted in a ground based facility. The test article was a Lycoming ALF502-R5 high bypass turbofan engine, serial number LF01. The objectives of the test were to validate the PSL ice crystal cloud calibration and engine testing methodologies by demonstrating the capability to calibrate and duplicate known flight test events that occurred on the same LF01 engine and to generate engine data to support fundamental and computational research to investigate and better understand the physics of ice crystal icing in a turbofan engine environment while duplicating known revenue service events and conducting test points while varying facility and engine parameters. During PSL calibration testing it was discovered than heated probes installed through tunnel sidewalls experienced ice buildup aft of their location due to ice crystals impinging upon them, melting and running back. Filtered city water was used in the cloud generation nozzle system to provide ice crystal nucleation sites. This resulted in mineralization forming on flow path hardware that led to a chronic degradation of performance during the month long test. Lacking internal flow path cameras, the response of thermocouples along the flow path was interpreted as ice building up. Using this interpretation, a strong correlation between total water content (TWC) and a weaker correlation between median volumetric diameter (MVD) of the ice crystal cloud and the rate of ice buildup along the instrumented flow path was identified. For this test article the engine anti-ice system was required to be turned on before ice crystal icing

Continuous methane record of abrupt climate change 10-68 ka: sighting Heinrich events in the ice core record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Rachael; Brook, Edward; Chiang, John; Blunier, Thomas; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McConnell, Joseph; Romanini, Daniele; Severinghaus, Jeffrey; Sowers, Todd; Stowasser, Christopher

2014-05-01

The Last Glacial period was punctuated by millennial scale abrupt climate changes - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events. Controls on the magnitude and frequency of these climate perturbations, and how they may be inter-related, remain unclear. Specific problems include the difficulty of dating Heinrich sediment layers and local bias of key paleoclimate archives. We present a highly detailed and precise record of ice core methane (CH4), a globally integrated signal, which resolves climatic features in unprecedented resolution. Abrupt CH4 increases are resolved in Heinrich Stadials (HS) 1, 2, 4 and 5 where, in contrast to all D-O cycles, there are no concurrent abrupt changes in Greenland temperature. Using modern-day tropical rainfall variability as an analog, we propose that strong cooling in the North Atlantic severely restricted the northerly range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), leading to an enhanced wet season over Southern Hemisphere tropical land areas, and consequently driving production of excess CH4 in tropical wetlands. Our findings place four Heinrich events firmly within ice core chronologies and suggest maximum durations of 778 to 1606 yr. CH4 anomalies are only associated with Heinrich events of Hudson Strait provenance, indicating that the tropical impacts of Heinrich events were not uniform.

Implications of a electroweak triplet scalar leptoquark on the ultra-high energy neutrino events at IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mileo, Nicolas; de la Puente, Alejandro; Szynkman, Alejandro

2016-11-01

We study the production of scalar leptoquarks at IceCube, in particular, a particle transforming as a triplet under the weak interaction. The existence of electroweak-triplet scalars is highly motivated by models of grand unification and also within radiative seesaw models for neutrino mass generation. In our framework, we extend the Standard Model by a single colored electroweak-triplet scalar leptoquark and analyze its implications on the excess of ultra-high energy neutrino events observed by the IceCube collaboration. We consider only couplings between the leptoquark to first generation of quarks and first and second generations of leptons, and carry out a statistical analysis to determine the parameters that best describe the IceCube data as well as set 95% CL upper bounds. We analyze whether this study is still consistent with most up-to-date LHC data and various low energy observables.

Quantifying the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons During a Rapid Dropout Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, K. H.; Tu, W.; Xiang, Z.

2017-10-01

Relativistic electron flux in the radiation belt can drop by orders of magnitude within the timespan of hours. In this study, we used the drift-diffusion model that includes azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion of electrons to simulate low-altitude electron distribution observed by POES/MetOp satellites for rapid radiation belt electron dropout event occurring on 1 May 2013. The event shows fast dropout of MeV energy electrons at L > 4 over a few hours, observed by the Van Allen Probes mission. By simulating the electron distributions observed by multiple POES satellites, we resolve the precipitation loss with both high spatial and temporal resolutions and a range of energies. We estimate the pitch angle diffusion coefficients as a function of energy, pitch angle, and L-shell and calculate corresponding electron lifetimes during the event. The simulation results show fast electron precipitation loss at L > 4 during the electron dropout, with estimated electron lifetimes on the order of half an hour for MeV energies. The electron loss rate shows strong energy dependence with faster loss at higher energies, which suggest that this dropout event is dominated by quick and localized scattering process that prefers higher energy electrons. The improved temporal and spatial resolutions of electron precipitation rates provided by multiple low-altitude observations can resolve fast-varying electron loss during rapid electron dropouts (over a few hours), which occur too fast for a single low-altitude satellite. The capability of estimating the fast-varying electron lifetimes during rapid dropout events is an important step in improving radiation belt model accuracy.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.

PubMed

Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A

2017-01-05

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.

Cyclone-induced rapid creation of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaomin; Turner, John; Sun, Bo; Li, Bingrui; Liu, Chengyan

2014-01-01

Two polar vessels, Akademik Shokalskiy and Xuelong, were trapped by thick sea ice in the Antarctic coastal region just to the west of 144°E and between 66.5°S and 67°S in late December 2013. This event demonstrated the rapid establishment of extreme Antarctic sea ice conditions on synoptic time scales. The event was associated with cyclones that developed at lower latitudes. Near the event site, cyclone-enhanced strong southeasterly katabatic winds drove large westward drifts of ice floes. In addition, the cyclones also gave southward ice drift. The arrival and grounding of Iceberg B9B in Commonwealth Bay in March 2011 led to the growth of fast ice around it, forming a northward protruding barrier. This barrier blocked the westward ice drift and hence aided sea ice consolidation on its eastern side. Similar cyclone-induced events have occurred at this site in the past after the grounding of Iceberg B9B. Future events may be predictable on synoptic time scales, if cyclone-induced strong wind events can be predicted. PMID:24937550

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

A comparison of selected models for estimating cable icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McComber, Pierre; Druez, Jacques; Laflamme, Jean

In many cold climate countries, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor transmission line icing. Indeed, by knowing in advance of localized danger for icing overloads, electric utilities can take measures in time to prevent generalized failure of the power transmission network. Recently in Canada, a study was made to compare the estimation of a few icing models working from meteorological data in estimating ice loads for freezing rain events. The models tested were using only standard meteorological parameters, i.e. wind speed and direction, temperature and precipitation rate. This study has shown that standard meteorological parameters can only achieve very limited accuracy, especially for longer icing events. However, with the help of an additional instrument monitoring the icing rate intensity, a significant improvement in model prediction might be achieved. The icing rate meter (IRM) which counts icing and de-icing cycles per unit time on a standard probe can be used to estimate the icing intensity. A cable icing estimation is then made by taking into consideration the accretion size, temperature, wind speed and direction, and precipitation rate. In this paper, a comparison is made between the predictions of two previously tested models (one obtained and the other reconstructed from their description in the public literature) and of a model based on the icing rate meter readings. The models are tested against nineteen events recorded on an icing test line at Mt. Valin, Canada, during the winter season 1991-1992. These events are mostly rime resulting from in-cloud icing. However, freezing rain and wet snow events were also recorded. Results indicate that a significant improvement in the estimation is attained by using the icing rate meter data together with the other standard meteorological parameters.

Synoptic versus regional causes of icing on wind turbines at an exposed wind farm site in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissinger, Maximilian; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Dorninger, Manfred; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Ice accretion on wind turbine blades can lead to significant power production loss or even permanent structural damage on the turbine. With the ongoing construction of wind farms at sites with increased icing potential in cold climates, accurate icing predictions are needed to optimise power plant operation. To this end, the frequency of occurrence and the causes of meteorological icing need to be better understood. The project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative, aims to improve icing forecasts through measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. The project focuses on a wind farm site near Ellern, Germany, located on the Hunsrück, a hilly terrain rising above the surrounding plain by 200-300 metres. Production data from the last three winters show that icing events tend to occur more often at the wind turbines on top of the highest hills. The present study aims to investigate historical cases of wind turbine icing and their meteorological causes at the Ellern wind farm. The data available consists of a three-year period (2013-2016) of operational data from the Ellern wind farm as well as meteorological measurements at nearby stations operated by the German Weather Service (DWD). In addition, radiosondes and weather charts are taken into account. The main objective of this work is, first, to link the local and regional weather conditions to larger-scale weather patterns and prevailing air masses, and second, to determine the types of icing (in-cloud vs. freezing precipation). Results show that in most icing cases the cloud base height was below the hub height while the temperature was just below the freezing point. Precipitation was absent in most cases. This suggests that most of the observed icing events were due to in-cloud icing. Icing conditions occurred often (but not exclusively) under specific synoptic-scale weather conditions, such as north-westerly flow advecting maritime polar air masses to Central

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

46 CFR 308.515 - Payment in event of loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.515 Payment in event of loss. All... claims must be supported by the customary documents required in connection with war risk insurance claims...

46 CFR 308.515 - Payment in event of loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.515 Payment in event of loss. All... claims must be supported by the customary documents required in connection with war risk insurance claims...

46 CFR 308.515 - Payment in event of loss.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.515 Payment in event of loss. All... claims must be supported by the customary documents required in connection with war risk insurance claims...

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Event-based soil loss models for construction sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-05-01

The elevated rates of soil erosion stemming from land clearing and grading activities during urban development, can result in excessive amounts of eroded sediments entering waterways and causing harm to the biota living therein. However, construction site event-based soil loss simulations - required for reliable design of erosion and sediment controls - are one of the most uncertain types of hydrologic models. This study presents models with improved degree of accuracy to advance the design of erosion and sediment controls for construction sites. The new models are developed using multiple linear regression (MLR) on event-based permutations of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and artificial neural networks (ANN). These models were developed using surface runoff monitoring datasets obtained from three sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in Ontario and datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. The predictive MLR and ANN models can serve as both diagnostic and design tools for the effective sizing of erosion and sediment controls on active construction sites, and can be used for dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction.

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

The little ice age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical quelccaya ice cap.

PubMed

Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Dansgaard, W; Grootes, P M

1986-10-17

The analyses of two ice cores from a southern tropical ice cap provide a record of climatic conditions over 1000 years for a region where other proxy records are nearly absent. Annual variations in visible dust layers, oxygen isotopes, microparticle concentrations, conductivity, and identification of the historical (A.D. 1600) Huaynaputina ash permit accurate dating and time-scale verification. The fact that the Little Ice Age (about A.D. 1500 to 1900) stands out as a significant climatic event in the oxygen isotope and electrical conductivity records confirms the worldwide character of this event.

Fundamental Ice Crystal Accretion Physics Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Struk, Peter M.; Broeren, Andy P.; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Vargas, Mario; Wright, William B.; Currie, Tom; Knezevici, Danny; Fuleki, Dan

2012-01-01

Due to numerous engine power-loss events associated with high-altitude convective weather, ice accretion within an engine due to ice crystal ingestion is being investigated. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada are starting to examine the physical mechanisms of ice accretion on surfaces exposed to ice-crystal and mixed-phase conditions. In November 2010, two weeks of testing occurred at the NRC Research Altitude Facility utilizing a single wedge-type airfoil designed to facilitate fundamental studies while retaining critical features of a compressor stator blade or guide vane. The airfoil was placed in the NRC cascade wind tunnel for both aerodynamic and icing tests. Aerodynamic testing showed excellent agreement compared with CFD data on the icing pressure surface and allowed calculation of heat transfer coefficients at various airfoil locations. Icing tests were performed at Mach numbers of 0.2 to 0.3, total pressures from 93 to 45 kPa, and total temperatures from 5 to 15 C. Ice and liquid water contents ranged up to 20 and 3 g/m3, respectively. The ice appeared well adhered to the surface in the lowest pressure tests (45 kPa) and, in a particular case, showed continuous leading-edge ice growth to a thickness greater than 15 mm in 3 min. Such widespread deposits were not observed in the highest pressure tests, where the accretions were limited to a small area around the leading edge. The suction surface was typically ice-free in the tests at high pressure, but not at low pressure. The icing behavior at high and low pressure appeared to be correlated with the wet-bulb temperature, which was estimated to be above 0 C in tests at 93 kPa and below 0 C in tests at lower pressure, the latter enhanced by more evaporative cooling of water. The authors believe that the large ice accretions observed in the low pressure tests would undoubtedly cause the aerodynamic performance of a compressor component

Fundamental Ice Crystal Accretion Physics Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Currie, Tom; Knezevici, Danny; Fuleki, Dan; Struk, Peter M.; Broeren, Andy P.; Tsao, Jen-ching; Vargas, Mario; Wright, William

2011-01-01

Due to numerous engine power-loss events associated with high-altitude convective weather, ice accretion within an engine due to ice-crystal ingestion is being investigated. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada are starting to examine the physical mechanisms of ice accretion on surfaces exposed to ice-crystal and mixed-phase conditions. In November 2010, two weeks of testing occurred at the NRC Research Altitude Facility utilizing a single wedge-type airfoil designed to facilitate fundamental studies while retaining critical features of a compressor stator blade or guide vane. The airfoil was placed in the NRC cascade wind tunnel for both aerodynamic and icing tests. Aerodynamic testing showed excellent agreement compared with CFD data on the icing pressure surface and allowed calculation of heat transfer coefficients at various airfoil locations. Icing tests were performed at Mach numbers of 0.2 to 0.3, total pressures from 93 to 45 kPa, and total temperatures from 5 to 15 C. Ice and liquid water contents ranged up to 20 and 3 grams per cubic meter, respectively. The ice appeared well adhered to the surface in the lowest pressure tests (45 kPa) and, in a particular case, showed continuous leading-edge ice growth to a thickness greater than 15 millimeters in 3 minutes. Such widespread deposits were not observed in the highest pressure tests, where the accretions were limited to a small area around the leading edge. The suction surface was typically ice-free in the tests at high pressure, but not at low pressure. The icing behavior at high and low pressure appeared to be correlated with the wet-bulb temperature, which was estimated to be above 0 C in tests at 93 kPa and below 0 C in tests at lower pressure, the latter enhanced by more evaporative cooling of water. The authors believe that the large ice accretions observed in the low pressure tests would undoubtedly cause the aerodynamic

Two Extreme Climate Events of the Last 1000 Years Recorded in Himalayan and Andean Ice Cores: Impacts on Humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P.

2013-12-01

In the last few decades numerous studies have linked pandemic influenza, cholera, malaria, and viral pneumonia, as well as droughts, famines and global crises, to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Two annually resolved ice core records, one from Dasuopu Glacier in the Himalaya and one from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the tropical Peruvian Andes provide an opportunity to investigate these relationships on opposite sides of the Pacific Basin for the last 1000 years. The Dasuopu record provides an annual history from 1440 to 1997 CE and a decadally resolved record from 1000 to 1440 CE while the Quelccaya ice core provides annual resolution over the last 1000 years. Major ENSO events are often recorded in the oxygen isotope, insoluble dust, and chemical records from these cores. Here we investigate outbreaks of diseases, famines and global crises during two of the largest events recorded in the chemistry of these cores, particularly large peaks in the concentrations of chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (Fl-). One event is centered on 1789 to 1800 CE and the second begins abruptly in 1345 and tapers off after 1360 CE. These Cl- and F- peaks represent major droughts and reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust, derived in part from dried lake beds in drought stricken regions upwind of the core sites. For Dasuopu the likely sources are in India while for Quelccaya the sources would be the Andean Altiplano. Both regions are subject to drought conditions during the El Niño phase of the ENSO cycle. These two events persist longer (10 to 15 years) than today's typical ENSO events in the Pacific Ocean Basin. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was associated with a very strong El Niño event and was coincidental with the Boji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive droughts are documented in Central and South America. Likewise, the 1345 to 1360 CE event, although poorly documented

Modeling and Detection of Ice Particle Accretion in Aircraft Engine Compression Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

May, Ryan D.; Simon, Donald L.; Guo, Ten-Huei

2012-01-01

The accretion of ice particles in the core of commercial aircraft engines has been an ongoing aviation safety challenge. While no accidents have resulted from this phenomenon to date, numerous engine power loss events ranging from uneventful recoveries to forced landings have been recorded. As a first step to enabling mitigation strategies during ice accretion, a detection scheme must be developed that is capable of being implemented on board modern engines. In this paper, a simple detection scheme is developed and tested using a realistic engine simulation with approximate ice accretion models based on data from a compressor design tool. These accretion models are implemented as modified Low Pressure Compressor maps and have the capability to shift engine performance based on a specified level of ice blockage. Based on results from this model, it is possible to detect the accretion of ice in the engine core by observing shifts in the typical sensed engine outputs. Results are presented in which, for a 0.1 percent false positive rate, a true positive detection rate of 98 percent is achieved.

The Winter Olympics--On Ice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoover, Barbara G.

1998-01-01

Describes several science activities designed around the upcoming Winter Olympics ice skating events which demonstrate the scientific principles behind the sport. Students learn that increasing the pressure on ice will lead to the ice melting, the principle involved in the spinning swing, and the technology of skates and skating outfits. (PVD)

Sedimentary and rock magnetic signatures and event scenarios of deglacial outburst floods from the Laurentian Channel Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Wei; von Dobeneck, Tilo; Bergmann, Fenna; Just, Janna; Mulitza, Stefan; Chiessi, Cristiano M.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Piper, David J. W.

2018-04-01

Eastern Canadian margin sediments bear testimony to several catastrophic deglacial meltwater discharges from the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet. The reddish-brown plumite layers deposited on the levees of the Laurentian Fan valleys have been recognized as indications of multiple outburst floods between Heinrich events 2 and 1. Five event layers have been consistently recorded in three new gravity cores retrieved on the SW Grand Banks slope and comply with the previously published Laurentian Fan core MD95-2029. The apparently huge extent of these outburst plumes around the Laurentian Fan as well as their causes and consequences are investigated in this study using physical properties, rock magnetic and grain-size analyses, together with seismoacoustic profiling. We provide the first detailed 14C ages of the outburst event sequence and discuss their recurrence intervals in the context of regional ice retreat. Compared to the hemipelagic interlayers, event layers have overall uniform and systematic changes of rock-magnetic properties. Hematite contents increase over time and proximally while magnetite grain sizes fine upwards and spatially away from the fan. Based on the sediment composition and load, we argue that these plumites were formed by recurrent erosion of glacial mud deposits in the Laurentian Channel by meltwater outbursts. Three alternative glaciological scenarios are evaluated: in each case, the provenance of the transported sediment is not an indicator of the precise source of the meltwater.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-05-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets - Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)- continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km a-1 by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km a-1 after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea-level rise would average about 1.5 mm a-1.

Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-01-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.

Tephrochronology and the extended intimate (integration of ice-core, marine and terrestrial records) event stratigraphy 8-128 ka b2k

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blockley, Simon P. E.; Bourne, Anna J.; Brauer, Achim; Davies, Siwan M.; Hardiman, Mark; Harding, Poppy R.; Lane, Christine S.; MacLeod, Alison; Matthews, Ian P.; Pyne-O'Donnell, Sean D. F.; Rasmussen, Sune O.; Wulf, Sabine; Zanchetta, Giovanni

2014-12-01

The comparison of palaeoclimate records on their own independent timescales is central to the work of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records) network. For the North Atlantic region, an event stratigraphy has been established from the high-precision Greenland ice-core records and the integrated GICC05 chronology. This stratotype provides a palaeoclimate signal to which the timing and nature of palaeoenvironmental change recorded in marine and terrestrial archives can be compared. To facilitate this wider comparison, without assuming synchroneity of climatic change/proxy response, INTIMATE has also focussed on the development of tools to achieve this. In particular the use of time-parallel marker horizons e.g. tephra layers (volcanic ash). Coupled with the recent temporal extension of the Greenland stratotype, as part of this special issue, we present an updated INTIMATE event stratigraphy highlighting key tephra horizons used for correlation across Europe and the North Atlantic. We discuss the advantages of such an approach, and the key challenges for the further integration of terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records with those from ice cores and the marine realm.

Alaska shorefast ice: Interfacing geophysics with local sea ice knowledge and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Druckenmiller, Matthew L.

This thesis interfaces geophysical techniques with local and traditional knowledge (LTK) of indigenous ice experts to track and evaluate coastal sea ice conditions over annual and inter-annual timescales. A novel approach is presented for consulting LTK alongside a systematic study of where, when, and how the community of Barrow, Alaska uses the ice cover. The goal of this research is to improve our understanding of and abilities to monitor the processes that govern the state and dynamics of shorefast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and use of ice by the community. Shorefast ice stability and community strategies for safe hunting provide a framework for data collection and knowledge sharing that reveals how nuanced observations by Inupiat ice experts relate to identifying hazards. In particular, shorefast ice break-out events represent a significant threat to the lives of hunters. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to combine local and time-specific observations of ice conditions by both geophysical instruments and local experts, and to evaluate how ice features, atmospheric and oceanic forces, and local to regional processes interact to cause break-out events. Each year, the Barrow community builds trails across shorefast ice for use during the spring whaling season. In collaboration with hunters, a systematic multi-year survey (2007--2011) was performed to map these trails and measure ice thickness along them. Relationships between ice conditions and hunter strategies that guide trail placement and risk assessment are explored. In addition, trail surveys provide a meaningful and consistent approach to monitoring the thickness distribution of shorefast ice, while establishing a baseline for assessing future environmental change and potential impacts to the community. Coastal communities in the region have proven highly adaptive in their ability to safely and successfully hunt from sea ice over the last 30 years as significant changes have been observed in the ice zone

Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montiel, F.; Squire, V. A.

2017-10-01

A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ.

30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.

2003-01-01

Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

Stick-slip Cycles and Tidal Modulation of Ice Stream Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipovsky, B.; Dunham, E. M.

2016-12-01

The reactivation of a single dormant Antarctic ice stream would double the continent's mass imbalance. Despite importance of understanding the likelihood of such an event, direct observation of the basal processes that lead to the activation and stagnation of streaming ice are minimal. As the only ice stream undergoing stagnation, the Whillans Ice Plain (WIP) occupies a central role in our understanding of these subglacial processes. Complicating matters is the observation, from GPS records, that the WIP experiences most of its motion during episodes of rapid sliding. These sliding events are tidally modulated and separated by 12 hour periods of quiescence. We conduct numerical simulations of ice stream stick-slip cycles. Our simulations include rate- and state-dependent frictional sliding, tidal forcing, inertia, upstream loading in a cross-stream, thickness-averaged formulation. Our principal finding is that ice stream motion may respond to ocean tidal forcing with one of two end member behaviors. In one limit, tidally modulated slip events have rupture velocities that approach the shear wave speed and slip events have a duration that scales with the ice stream width divided by the shear wave speed. In the other limit, tidal modulation results in ice stream sliding velocities with lower amplitude variation but at much longer timescales, i.e. semi-diurnal and longer. This latter behavior more closely mimics the behavior of several active ice streams (Bindschadler, Rutford). We find that WIP slip events exist between these two end member behaviors: rupture velocities are far below the inertial limit yet sliding occurs only episodically. The continuum of sliding behaviors is governed by a critical ice stream width over which slip event nucleate. When the critical width is much longer than the ice stream width, slip events are unable to nucleate. The critical width depends on the subglacial effective pressure, ice thickness, and frictional and elastic constitutive

Siple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age

PubMed Central

Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward J.

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 during times of past abrupt climate change may help us better understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Previous ice core studies reveal simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during times when Greenland and the northern hemisphere experienced very long, cold stadial conditions during the last ice age. Whether this relationship extends to all of the numerous stadial events in the Greenland ice core record has not been clear. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica for part of the last ice age. We find that CO2 does not significantly change during the short Greenlandic stadial events, implying that the climate system perturbation that produced the short stadials was not strong enough to substantially alter the carbon cycle. PMID:24781344

Geoengineering Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolovick, M.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting at the grounding line. Rapid melting near the grounding line causes ice shelf thinning, loss of buttressing, flow acceleration, grounding line retreat, and ultimately mass loss and sea-level rise. If the grounding line enters a section of overdeepened bed the ice sheet may even enter a runaway collapse via the marine ice sheet instability. The warm water that triggers this process resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep troughs in the continental shelf. In Greenland, warm water transport is further constricted through narrow fjords. Here, I propose blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width- and depth-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of ocean melting, I find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing the grounding line at depth. Blocking of warm water from the sub-ice cavity causes ice shelf thickening, increased buttressing, and grounding line readvance. The increase in buttressing is greatly magnified if the thickened ice shelf regrounds on a bathymetric high or on the artificial sill itself. In some experiments for Thwaites Glacier the grounding line is able to recover from a severely retreated state over 100 km behind its present-day position. Such a dramatic recovery demonstrates that it is possible, at least in principle, to stop and reverse an ongoing marine ice sheet collapse. If the ice shelf regrounds on the artificial sill itself, erosion of the sill beneath the grounded ice could reduce the effectiveness of the intervention. However, experiments including sill erosion suggest that even a very weak sill (1 kPa) could delay a collapse for centuries. The scale of the artificial sills in Greenlandic fjords is comparable to

Quantifying the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons during a Rapid Dropout Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, K. H.; Tu, W.; Xiang, Z.

2017-12-01

Relativistic electron flux in the radiation belt can drop by orders of magnitude within the timespan of hours. In this study, we used the drift-diffusion model that includes azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion of electrons to simulate low-altitude electron distribution observed by POES/MetOp satellites for rapid radiation belt electron dropout event occurring on May 1, 2013. The event shows fast dropout of MeV energy electrons at L>4 over a few hours, observed by the Van Allen Probes mission. By simulating the electron distributions observed by multiple POES satellites, we resolve the precipitation loss with both high spatial and temporal resolution and a range of energies. We estimate the pitch angle diffusion coefficients as a function of energy, pitch angle, and L-shell, and calculate corresponding electron lifetimes during the event. The simulation results show fast electron precipitation loss at L>4 during the electron dropout, with estimated electron lifetimes on the order of half an hour for MeV energies. The electron loss rate show strong energy dependence with faster loss at higher energies, which suggest that this dropout event is dominated by quick and localized scattering process that prefers higher energy electrons. The estimated pitch angle diffusion rates from the model are then compared with in situ wave measurements from Van Allen Probes to uncover the underlying wave-particle-interaction mechanisms that are responsible for the fast electron precipitation. Comparing the resolved precipitation loss with the observed electron dropouts at high altitudes, our results will suggest the relative role of electron precipitation loss and outward radial diffusion to the radiation belt dropouts during storm and non-storm times, in addition to its energy and L dependence.

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

2017-12-01

Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be

Linking atmospheric synoptic transport, cloud phase, surface energy fluxes, and sea-ice growth: observations of midwinter SHEBA conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, P. Ola G.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Perovich, Don; Solomon, Amy

2017-08-01

Observations from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project are used to describe a sequence of events linking midwinter long-range advection of atmospheric heat and moisture into the Arctic Basin, formation of supercooled liquid water clouds, enhancement of net surface energy fluxes through increased downwelling longwave radiation, and reduction in near-surface conductive heat flux loss due to a warming of the surface, thereby leading to a reduction in sea-ice bottom growth. The analyses provide details of two events during Jan. 1-12, 1998, one entering the Arctic through Fram Strait and the other from northeast Siberia; winter statistics extend the results. Both deep, precipitating frontal clouds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds impact the surface radiation and energy budget. Cloud liquid water, occurring preferentially in stratocumulus clouds extending into the base of the inversion, provides the strongest impact on surface radiation and hence modulates the surface forcing, as found previously. The observations suggest a minimum water vapor threshold, likely case dependent, for producing liquid water clouds. Through responses to the radiative forcing and surface warming, this cloud liquid water also modulates the turbulent and conductive heat fluxes, and produces a thermal wave penetrating into the sea ice. About 20-33 % of the observed variations of bottom ice growth can be directly linked to variations in surface conductive heat flux, with retarded ice growth occurring several days after these moisture plumes reduce the surface conductive heat flux. This sequence of events modulate pack-ice wintertime environmental conditions and total ice growth, and has implications for the annual sea-ice evolution, especially for the current conditions of extensive thinner ice.

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S. A.; Nielsen, K.; Wahr, J. M.; Bevis, M. G.; Liu, L.; Spada, G.; van Dam, T. M.

2012-12-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal displacements from 2009-2011, at four GPS sites located between 5 and 150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI). The horizontal displacements at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed towards east-north-east, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is south-east of these sites. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modelled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006 to 2011. The agreement between the observed and modelled relative displacements is 0.8 mm or better, which suggests that the mass loss estimate of JI is well captured. In 2010, we observe a rapid increase in the uplift at all four sites. This uplift anomaly, defined as the deviation at 2010.75 from the 2006-2009.75 trend is estimated to 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm (KAGA), 9.3 +/- 2.2 mm (ILUL), 5.1 +/- 2.0 mm (QEQE), and 6.1 +/- 2.3 mm (AASI). The relative large anomalies at the sites QEQE and AASI, located ~150 km from the front of JI, suggests that the uplift anomalies are caused by a large wide-spread melt-induced ice loss. The relatively low uplift anomaly at KAGA, located only 5 km from the front, indicates that there has been a dramatic decrease in dynamic-induced ice loss near the front of JI. This is supported by elevation changes derived from ATM measurements between 2010 and 2011, where we observe an elevation increase in the flow direction of up to 10 m at the frontal part of JI.

Imaging radar studies of polar ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carsey, Frank

1993-01-01

A vugraph format presentation is given. The following topics are discussed: scientific overview, radar data opportunities, sea ice investigations, and ice sheet investigations. The Sea Ice Scientific Objectives are as follows: (1) to estimate globally the surface brine generation, heat flux, and fresh water advection (as ice); (2) to monitor phasing of seasonal melt and freeze events and accurately estimate melt and growth rates; and (3) to develop improved treatment of momentum transfer and ice mechanics in coupled air-sea-ice models.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

Basal crevasses and suture zones in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica: Implications for ice shelf stability in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, Daniel J.

, which likely has limited lateral variation in its mechanical properties, accounts for ~60% of the total ice thickness near the calving front. This suggests that the material heterogeneities present in the lower ~40% of the ice column are responsible for resisting fracture propagation and thereby delaying tabular calving events. This represents a highly sensitive aspect of ice-shelf stability, as changes in the oceanic forcing may lead to the loss of this heterogeneity.

Dark matter at DeepCore and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barger, V.; Gao, Y.; Marfatia, D.

2011-03-01

With the augmentation of IceCube by DeepCore, the prospect for detecting dark matter annihilation in the Sun is much improved. To complement this experimental development, we provide a thorough template analysis of the particle physics issues that are necessary to precisely interpret the data. Our study is about nitty-gritty and is intended as a framework for detailed work on a variety of dark matter candidates. To accurately predict the source neutrino spectrum, we account for spin-correlations of the final state particles and the helicity-dependence of their decays, and absorption effects at production. We fully treat the propagation of neutrinos through the Sun, including neutrino oscillations, energy losses and tau regeneration. We simulate the survival probability of muons produced in the Earth by using the Muon Monte Carlo program, reproduce the published IceCube effective area, and update the parameters in the differential equation that approximates muon energy losses. To evaluate the zenith-angle dependent atmospheric background event rate, we track the Sun and determine the time it spends at each zenith-angle. Throughout, we employ neutralino dark matter as our example.

Collar temperature sensor data reveal long-term patterns in southern Beaufort Sea polar bear den distribution on pack ice and land

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Jay W; Rode, Karyn D.; Eggett, Dennis L.; Smith, T.S.; Wilson, R. R.; Durner, George M.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Atwood, Todd C.; Douglas, David C.

2017-01-01

In response to a changing climate, many species alter habitat use. Polar bears Ursus maritimus in the southern Beaufort Sea have increasingly used land for maternal denning. To aid in detecting denning behavior, we developed an objective method to identify polar bear denning events using temperature sensor data collected by satellite-linked transmitters deployed on adult females between 1985 and 2013. We then applied this method to determine whether southern Beaufort Sea polar bears have continued to increase land denning with recent sea-ice loss and examined whether sea-ice conditions affect the distribution of dens between pack-ice and coastal substrates. Because land use in summer and autumn has also increased, we examined potential associations between summering substrate and denning substrate. Statistical process control methods applied to temperature-sensor data identified denning events with 94.5% accuracy in comparison to direct observations (n = 73) and 95.7% accuracy relative to subjective classifications based on temperature, location, and activity sensor data (n = 116). We found an increase in land-based denning during the study period. The frequency of land denning was directly related to the distance that sea ice retreated from the coast. Among females that denned, all 14 that summered on land subsequently denned there, whereas 29% of the 69 bears summering on ice denned on land. These results suggest that denning on land may continue to increase with further loss of sea ice. While the effects that den substrate have on nutrition, energetics, and reproduction are unclear, more polar bears denning onshore will likely increase human-bear interactions.

Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils (SmaggIce)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Brandy M.

2004-01-01

Many of the troubles associated with problem solving are alleviated when there is a model that can be used to represent the problem. Through the Advanced Graphics and Visualization (G-VIS) Laboratory and other facilities located within the Research Analysis Center, the Computer Services Division (CSD) is able to develop and maintain programs and software that allow for the modeling of various situations. For example, the Icing Research Branch is devoted to investigating the effect of ice that forms on the wings and other airfoils of airplanes while in flight. While running tests that physically generate ice and wind on airfoils within the laboratories and wind tunnels on site are done, it would be beneficial if most of the preliminary work could be done outside of the lab. Therefore, individuals from within CSD have collaborated with Icing Research in order to create SmaggIce. This software allows users to create ice patterns on clean airfoils or open files containing a variety of icing situations, manipulate and measure these forms, generate, divide, and merge grids around these elements for more explicit analysis, and specify and rediscretize subcurves. With the projected completion date of Summer 2005, the majority of the focus of the Smagglce team is user-functionality and error handling. My primary responsibility is to test the Graphical User Interface (GUI) in SmaggIce in order to ensure the usability and verify the expected results of the events (buttons, menus, etc.) within the program. However, there is no standardized, systematic way in which to test all the possible combinations or permutations of events, not to mention unsolicited events such as errors. Moreover, scripting tests, if not done properly and with a view towards inevitable revision, can result in more apparent errors within the software and in effect become useless whenever the developers of the program make a slight change in the way a specific process is executed. My task therefore

Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

2016-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzman, J. N.; Groffman, P.

2017-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiley, E.; King, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Landhäusser, S.

2016-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the

Identifying the AD 1257 Salamas volcanic event from micron-size tephra composition in two East Antarctic ice cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petit, Jean Robert; Narcisi, Biancamaria; Batanova, Valentina G.; Joël, Savarino; Komorowski, Jean Christophe; Michel, Agnes; Metrich, Nicole; Besson, Pascale; Vidal, Celine; Sobolev, Alexander V.

2016-04-01

A wealth of valuable data about the history of explosive volcanic history can be extracted from polar ice successions. Both the volatile by-products and the solid silicate (tephra) components of volcanic plumes can be incorporated into snow layers, providing tools for chronostratigraphic correlations and for interpretation of climate-volcanism interactions. Volcanic events from low-latitude regions are of particular interest as the related sulphate aerosol travelling through the stratosphere can reach the polar sheets forming inter-hemispheric (Greenland and Antarctica) signals preserved in the ice. Within the glaciological record of globally significant volcanic markers, the AD1259 signal represents one of most prominent events over the last thousands years. Its source has been long debated. On the basis of recent field investigations (Lavigne et al., 2013; Vidal et al., 2015), it has been proposed that Mount Samalas on Lombok Island (Indonesia) represents the source responsible for the polar event. With the goal of bringing distal tephrochronological evidence to source identification, we have attempted to identify volcanic ash associated to the AD 1259 sulphate pulse. To this purpose we used firn and ice-core samples from two East Antarctic Plateau sites: Concordia-Dome C (75°06' S, 123°20' E, 3233 m) and Talos Dome (72°49'S, 159°11'E, 2315 m). Our high-resolution studies included sample processing in a Class 100 clean room using established ultra-clean procedures for insoluble microparticle analyses, Coulter counter grain size measurements, scanning electron microscope observations and the geochemical (major elements) composition from the recently set ISTERRE Jeol JXA 8230 Superprobe and calibrated for small particles analysis. Despite the difficulty of studying such minute fragments, within both cores we located and characterised multiple tiny (micron-size) glass shards concomitant with the volcanic peak. We present preliminary results alongside comparison

Lateral distribution of muons in IceCube cosmic ray events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R.; Abdou, Y.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Altmann, D.; Andeen, K.; Auffenberg, J.; Bai, X.; Baker, M.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Bay, R.; Beattie, K.; Beatty, J. J.; Bechet, S.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; Bell, M.; Benabderrahmane, M. L.; BenZvi, S.; Berdermann, J.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bertrand, D.; Besson, D. Z.; Bindig, D.; Bissok, M.; Blaufuss, E.; Blumenthal, J.; Boersma, D. J.; Bohm, C.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Brayeur, L.; Brown, A. M.; Bruijn, R.; Brunner, J.; Buitink, S.; Carson, M.; Casey, J.; Casier, M.; Chirkin, D.; Christy, B.; Clevermann, F.; Cohen, S.; Cowen, D. F.; Cruz Silva, A. H.; Danninger, M.; Daughhetee, J.; Davis, J. C.; De Clercq, C.; Descamps, F.; Desiati, P.; de Vries-Uiterweerd, G.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; Dreyer, J.; Dumm, J. P.; Dunkman, M.; Eagan, R.; Eisch, J.; Ellsworth, R. W.; Engdegård, O.; Euler, S.; Evenson, P. A.; Fadiran, O.; Fazely, A. R.; Fedynitch, A.; Feintzeig, J.; Feusels, T.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Fischer-Wasels, T.; Flis, S.; Franckowiak, A.; Franke, R.; Frantzen, K.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Gladstone, L.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Goodman, J. A.; Góra, D.; Grant, D.; Groß, A.; Grullon, S.; Gurtner, M.; Ha, C.; Haj Ismail, A.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hanson, K.; Heereman, D.; Heimann, P.; Heinen, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hickford, S.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Homeier, A.; Hoshina, K.; Huelsnitz, W.; Hulth, P. O.; Hultqvist, K.; Hussain, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Jacobsen, J.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jlelati, O.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Kiryluk, J.; Kislat, F.; Kläs, J.; Klein, S. R.; Köhne, J.-H.; Kohnen, G.; Kolanoski, H.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Krasberg, M.; Kroll, G.; Kunnen, J.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Labare, M.; Laihem, K.; Landsman, H.; Larson, M. J.; Lauer, R.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Lünemann, J.; Madsen, J.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Matis, H. S.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Merck, M.; Mészáros, P.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Middell, E.; Milke, N.; Miller, J.; Mohrmann, L.; Montaruli, T.; Morse, R.; Movit, S. M.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naumann, U.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke, A.; Odrowski, S.; Olivas, A.; Olivo, M.; O'Murchadha, A.; Panknin, S.; Paul, L.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pirk, N.; Posselt, J.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Rädel, L.; Rawlins, K.; Redl, P.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Ribordy, M.; Richman, M.; Riedel, B.; Rodrigues, J. P.; Rothmaier, F.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ruzybayev, B.; Ryckbosch, D.; Saba, S. M.; Salameh, T.; Sander, H.-G.; Santander, M.; Sarkar, S.; Schatto, K.; Scheel, M.; Scheriau, F.; Schmidt, T.; Schmitz, M.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schönherr, L.; Schönwald, A.; Schukraft, A.; Schulte, L.; Schulz, O.; Seckel, D.; Seo, S. H.; Sestayo, Y.; Seunarine, S.; Smith, M. W. E.; Soiron, M.; Soldin, D.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stamatikos, M.; Stanev, T.; Stasik, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Strahler, E. A.; Ström, R.; Sullivan, G. W.; Taavola, H.; Taboada, I.; Tamburro, A.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Toscano, S.; Usner, M.; van der Drift, D.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Van Overloop, A.; van Santen, J.; Vehring, M.; Voge, M.; Walck, C.; Waldenmaier, T.; Wallraff, M.; Walter, M.; Wasserman, R.; Weaver, Ch.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whitehorn, N.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Williams, D. R.; Wissing, H.; Wolf, M.; Wood, T. R.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, C.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zarzhitsky, P.; Ziemann, J.; Zilles, A.; Zoll, M.

2013-01-01

In cosmic ray air showers, the muon lateral separation from the center of the shower is a measure of the transverse momentum that the muon parent acquired in the cosmic ray interaction. IceCube has observed cosmic ray interactions that produce muons laterally separated by up to 400 m from the shower core, a factor of 6 larger distance than previous measurements. These muons originate in high pT (>2GeV/c) interactions from the incident cosmic ray, or high-energy secondary interactions. The separation distribution shows a transition to a power law at large values, indicating the presence of a hard pT component that can be described by perturbative quantum chromodynamics. However, the rates and the zenith angle distributions of these events are not well reproduced with the cosmic ray models tested here, even those that include charm interactions. This discrepancy may be explained by a larger fraction of kaons and charmed particles than is currently incorporated in the simulations.

Upper Ocean Circulation in the Glacial Northeast Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials Ice-Sheet Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toucanne, S.; Soulet, G.; Bosq, M.; Marjolaine, S.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourillet, J. F.; Bayon, G.

2016-12-01

Intermediate ocean water variability is involved in climate changes over geological timescales. As a prominent example, changes in North Atlantic subsurface water properties (including warming) during Heinrich Stadials may have triggered the so-called Heinrich events through ice-shelf loss and attendant ice-stream acceleration. While the origin of Heinrich Stadials and subsequent iceberg calving remains controversial, paleoceanographic research efforts mainly focus on the deep Atlantic overturning, leaving the upper ocean largely unexplored. To further evaluate variability in upper ocean circulation and its possible relationship with ice-sheet instabilities, a depth-transect of eight cores (BOBGEO and GITAN-TANDEM cruises) from the Northeast Atlantic (down to 2 km water depth) have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the upper ocean during the last glacial period. Our results reveal that near-bottom flow speeds (reconstructed by using sortable silt mean grain-size and X-ray fluorescence core-scanner Zr/Rb ratio) and water-masses chemistry (carbon and neodymium isotopes performed on foraminifera) substantially changed in phase with the millennial-scale climate changes recognized in the ice-core records. Our results are compared with paleoceanographic reconstructions of the 'Western Boundary Undercurrent' in order to discuss regional hydrographic differences at both sides of the North Atlantic, as well as with the fluctuations of both the marine- (through ice-rafted debris) and terrestrial-terminating ice-streams (through meltwater discharges) of the circum-Atlantic ice-sheets. Particular attention will be given to the Heinrich Stadials and concomitant Channel River meltwater discharges into the Northeast Atlantic in response to the melting of the European Ice-Sheet. This comparison helps to disentangle the cryosphere-ocean interactions throughout the last ice age, and the sequence of events occurring in the course of the Heinrich Stadials.

Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone

PubMed Central

Squire, V. A.

2017-01-01

A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ. PMID:29118659

Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone.

PubMed

Montiel, F; Squire, V A

2017-10-01

A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ.

Asynchronously Coupled Models of Ice Loss from Airless Planetary Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorghofer, N.

2016-12-01

Ice is found near the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, in some main belt asteroids, and perhaps in NEOs that will be explored or even mined in future. The simple but important question of how fast ice is lost from airless bodies can present computational challenges. The thermal cycle on the surface repeats on much shorter time-scales than ice retreats; one process acts on the time-scale of hours, the other over billions of years. This multi-scale situation is addressed with asynchronous coupling, where models with different time steps are woven together. The sharp contrast at the retreating ice table is dealt with with explicit interface tracking. For Ceres, which is covered with a thermally insulating dust mantle, desiccation rates are orders of magnitude slower than had been calculated with simpler models. More model challenges remain: The role of impact devolatization and the time-scale for complete desiccation of an asteroid. I will also share my experience with code distribution using GitHub and Zenodo.

Effects of sea-ice and biogeochemical processes and storms on under-ice water fCO2 during the winter-spring transition in the high Arctic Ocean: Implications for sea-air CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fransson, Agneta; Chierici, Melissa; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Olsen, Are; Assmy, Philipp; Peterson, Algot K.; Spreen, Gunnar; Ward, Brian

2017-07-01

We performed measurements of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO2) in the surface water under Arctic sea ice from January to June 2015 during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition. Over this period, the ship drifted with four different ice floes and covered the deep Nansen Basin, the slopes north of Svalbard, and the Yermak Plateau. This unique winter-to-spring data set includes the first winter-time under-ice water fCO2 observations in this region. The observed under-ice fCO2 ranged between 315 µatm in winter and 153 µatm in spring, hence was undersaturated relative to the atmospheric fCO2. Although the sea ice partly prevented direct CO2 exchange between ocean and atmosphere, frequently occurring leads and breakup of the ice sheet promoted sea-air CO2 fluxes. The CO2 sink varied between 0.3 and 86 mmol C m-2 d-1, depending strongly on the open-water fractions (OW) and storm events. The maximum sea-air CO2 fluxes occurred during storm events in February and June. In winter, the main drivers of the change in under-ice water fCO2 were dissolution of CaCO3 (ikaite) and vertical mixing. In June, in addition to these processes, primary production and sea-air CO2 fluxes were important. The cumulative loss due to CaCO3 dissolution of 0.7 mol C m-2 in the upper 10 m played a major role in sustaining the undersaturation of fCO2 during the entire study. The relative effects of the total fCO2 change due to CaCO3 dissolution was 38%, primary production 26%, vertical mixing 16%, sea-air CO2 fluxes 16%, and temperature and salinity insignificant.

Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing Loss during the October 2012 Dropout Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Weichao; Cunningham, Gregory

2017-04-01

The relativistic electron flux in Earth's outer radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescales of a few hours, which is called radiation belt dropouts. Where do the electrons go during the dropouts? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Radiation belt electrons can be lost either by precipitation into the atmosphere or by transport across the magnetopause into interplanetary space. The latter mechanism is called magnetopause shadowing, usually combined with outward radial diffusion of electrons due to the sharp radial gradient it creates. In order to quantify the relative contribution of these two mechanisms to radiation belt dropout, we performed an event study on the October 2012 dropout event observed by Van Allen Probes. First, the precipitating MeV electrons observed by multiple NOAA POES satellites at low altitude did not show evidence of enhanced precipitation during the dropout, which suggested that precipitation was not the dominant loss mechanism for the event. Then, in order to simulate the magnetopause shadowing loss and outward radial diffusion during the dropout, we applied a radial diffusion model with electron lifetimes on the order of electron drift periods outside the last closed drift shell. In addition, realistic and event-specific inputs of radial diffusion coefficients (DLL) and last closed drift shell (LCDS) were implemented in the model. Specifically, we used the new DLL developed by Cunningham [JGR 2016] which were estimated in realistic TS04 [Tsyganenko and Sitnov, JGR 2005] storm time magnetic field model and included physical K (2nd adiabatic invariant) or pitch angle dependence. Event-specific LCDS traced in TS04 model with realistic K dependence was also implemented. Our simulation results showed that these event-specific inputs are critical to explain the electron dropout during the event. The new DLL greatly improved the model performance at low L* regions (L*<3

Brine Convection, Temperature Fluctuations, and Permeability in Winter Antarctic Land-Fast Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongpan, P.; Hughes, K. G.; Langhorne, P. J.; Smith, I. J.

2018-01-01

Vertical temperature strings are used in sea ice research to study heat flow, ice growth rate, and ocean-ice-atmosphere interaction. We demonstrate the feasibility of using temperature fluctuations as a proxy for fluid movement, a key process for supplying nutrients to Antarctic sea ice algal communities. Four strings were deployed in growing, land-fast sea ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. By smoothing temperature data with the robust LOESS method, we obtain temperature fluctuations that cannot be explained by insolation or atmospheric heat loss. Statistical distributions of these temperature fluctuations are investigated with sensitivities to the distance from the ice-ocean interface, average ice temperature, and sea ice structure. Fluctuations are greatest close to the base (<50 mm) at temperatures >-3°C, and are discrete events with an average active period of 43% compared to 11% when the ice is colder (-3°C to -5°C). Assuming fluctuations occur when the Rayleigh number, derived from mushy layer theory, exceeds a critical value of 10 we approximate the harmonic mean permeability of this thick (>1 m) sea ice in terms of distance from the ice-ocean interface. Near the base, we obtain values in the same range as those measured by others in Arctic spring and summer. The permeability between the ice-ocean interface and 0.05 ± 0.04 m above it is of order 10-9 m2. Columnar and incorporated platelet ice permeability distributions in the bottom 0.1 m of winter Antarctic sea ice are statistically significantly different although their arithmetic means are indistinguishable.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Primary spectrum and composition with IceCube/IceTop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaisser, Thomas K.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-10-01

IceCube, with its surface array IceTop, detects three different components of extensive air showers: the total signal at the surface, GeV muons in the periphery of the showers and TeV muons in the deep array of IceCube. The spectrum is measured with high resolution from the knee to the ankle with IceTop. Composition and spectrum are extracted from events seen in coincidence by the surface array and the deep array of IceCube. The muon lateral distribution at the surface is obtained from the data and used to provide a measurement of the muon density at 600 meters from the shower core up to 30 PeV. Results are compared to measurements from other experiments to obtain an overview of the spectrum and composition over an extended range of energy. Consistency of the surface muon measurements with hadronic interaction models and with measurements at higher energy is discussed.

Evidence for smaller extents of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet and North Ice Cap during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Axford, Y.; Bigl, M.; Birkel, S. D.; Corbett, L. B.; Roy, E. P.; Thompson, J. T.; Whitecloud, S.

2013-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and local glaciers on Greenland are responding dynamically to warming temperatures with widespread retreat. GRACE satellite data (e.g., Kahn et al., 2010) and the Petermann Glacier calving events document the recent expansion of ice loss into northwestern Greenland. To improve the ability to estimate future ice loss in a warming climate, we are developing records of the response of the northwestern Greenlandic cryosphere to Holocene climatic conditions, with a focus on past warm periods. Our ongoing research includes analyses of glacial geology, sub-fossil vegetation, lake sediment cores, chironomid assemblages and ice cores combined with glaciological modeling. To constrain past ice extents that were as small as, or smaller than, at present, we recovered sub-fossil vegetation exposed at the receding margins of the GrIS and North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W) and of the GrIS near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W). We present vegetation types and radiocarbon ages of 30 plant samples collected in August 2012. In the Nunatarssuaq region, five ages of in situ (rooted) vegetation including Polytrichum moss, Saxifraga nathorstii and grasses located <5 m outboard of the GrIS margin are ~120-200 cal yr BP (range of medians of the 2-sigma calibrated age ranges). Nine ages of in situ Polytrichum, Saxifraga oppositafolia and grasses from ~1-5 m inboard of the NIC margin (excavated from beneath ice) range from ~50 to 310 cal yr BP. The growth of these plants occurred when the GrIS and NIC were at least as small as at present and their ages suggest that ice advances occurred in the last 50-120 yrs. In addition to the in situ samples, we collected plants from well-preserved ground material exposed along shear planes in the GrIS margins. In Nunatarssuaq, two Polytrichum mosses rooted in ground material and exposed along a shear plane in the GrIS margin date to 4680 and 4730 cal yr BP. Near Thule, three ages of Salix arctica

Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-09-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Comparison of measured and computed phase functions of individual tropospheric ice crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegmann, Patrick G.; Tropea, Cameron; Järvinen, Emma; Schnaiter, Martin

2016-07-01

Airplanes passing the incuda (lat. anvils) regions of tropical cumulonimbi-clouds are at risk of suffering an engine power-loss event and engine damage due to ice ingestion (Mason et al., 2006 [1]). Research in this field relies on optical measurement methods to characterize ice crystals; however the design and implementation of such methods presently suffer from the lack of reliable and efficient means of predicting the light scattering from ice crystals. The nascent discipline of direct measurement of phase functions of ice crystals in conjunction with particle imaging and forward modelling through geometrical optics derivative- and Transition matrix-codes for the first time allow us to obtain a deeper understanding of the optical properties of real tropospheric ice crystals. In this manuscript, a sample phase function obtained via the Particle Habit Imaging and Polar Scattering (PHIPS) probe during a measurement campaign in flight over Brazil will be compared to three different light scattering codes. This includes a newly developed first order geometrical optics code taking into account the influence of the Gaussian beam illumination used in the PHIPS device, as well as the reference ray tracing code of Macke and the T-matrix code of Kahnert.

Calving and rifting on McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banwell, Alison; Willis, Ian; MacAyeal, Douglas; Goodsell, Becky; Macdonald, Grant; Mayer, David; Powell, Anthony

2017-04-01

On March 2, 2016, a series of small en échelon tabular icebergs calved from the seaward front of the McMurdo Ice Shelf, and a previously inactive ice-shelf rift suddenly widened and propagated by 3km, 25% of its previous length, setting the stage for future calving of an approximately 8 km2 segment of the ice shelf. Immediately prior to these events, perhaps within 24 hours, all remaining land-fast sea ice buttressing the ice shelf broke up and drifted away. The events were witnessed by time-lapse cameras at nearby Scott Base giving a unique opportunity to document the timing of the events and conditions leading up to them. In addition, the events can be put into context using nearby seismic and automatic weather station data, satellite imagery, and ground observation made 8 months later. Although the observations cannot be used definitively to identify the exact trigger of calving and rifting, the seismic records reveal superimposed sets of long-period (>10 s) sea swell, propagating into McMurdo Sound from distant storm sources in the Pacific Ocean, at the time of, and immediately prior to, the break-up of sea ice and associated ice shelf calving and rifting. This conspicuous presence suggests that sea swell should be studied further as a proximal cause of ice-shelf calving and rifting; if proven, it suggests that ice-shelf stability is tele-connected with far-field storm conditions at lower latitudes, adding a global dimension to the physics of potential ice-shelf breakup.

Equatorial ground ice on Mars: Steady-state stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Postawko, Susan E.

1993-01-01

Current Martian equatorial surface temperatures are too warm for water ice to exist at the surface for any appreciable length of time before subliming into the atmosphere. Subsurface temperatures are generally warmer still and, despite the presence of a diffusive barrier of porous regolith material, it has been shown by Smoluchowski, Clifford and Hillel, and Fanale et al. that buried ground ice will also sublime and be lost to the atmosphere in a relatively short time. We investigate the behavior of this subliming subsurface ice and show that it is possible for ice to maintain at a steady-state depth, where sublimation and diffusive loss to the atmosphere is balanced by resupply from beneath by diffusion and recondensation of either a deeper buried ice deposits or ground water. We examine the behavior of equatorial ground ice with a numercial time-marching molecular diffusion model. In our model we allow for diffusion of water vapor through a porous regolith, variations in diffusivity and porosity with ice content, and recondensation of sublimed water vapor. A regolith containing considerable amounts of ice can still be very porous, allowing water vapor to diffuse up from deeper within the ice layer where temperatures are warmer due to the geothermal gradient. This vapor can then recondense nearer to the surface where ice had previously sublimed and been lost to the atmosphere. As a result we find that ice deposits migrate to find a steady-state depth, which represents a balance between diffusive loss to the atmosphere through the overlying porous regolith and diffusive resupply through a porous icy regolith below. This depth depends primarily on the long-term mean surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, and is independent of the ice-free porosity and the regolith diffusivity. Only the rate of loss of ground ice depends on diffusive properties.

Association of stressful life events with accelerated bone loss in older men: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

PubMed Central

Fink, Howard A.; Kuskowski, Michael A.; Cauley, Jane A.; Taylor, Brent C.; Schousboe, John T.; Cawthon, Peggy M.; Ensrud, Kristine E.

2015-01-01

Purpose/Introduction Prior studies suggest that stressful life events may increase adverse health outcomes, including falls and possibly fractures. The current study builds on these findings and examines whether stressful life events are associated with increased bone loss. Methods 4388 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study completed total hip bone mineral density (BMD) measures at baseline and visit 2, approximately 4.6 years later, and self-reported stressful life events data mid-way between baseline and visit 2, and at visit 2. We used linear regression to model the association of stressful life events with concurrent annualized total hip BMD loss, and log binomial regression or Poisson regression to model risk of concurrent accelerated BMD loss (>1 SD more than mean annualized change). Results 75.3% of men reported ≥1 type of stressful life event, including 43.3% with ≥2 types of stressful life events. Mean annualized BMD loss was −0.36% (SD 0.88) and 13.9% of men were categorized with accelerated BMD loss (about 5.7% or more total loss). Rate of annualized BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events after adjustment for age (p<0.001), but not after multivariable adjustment (p=0.07). Multivariable-adjusted risk of accelerated BMD loss increased with the number of types of stressful life events (RR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04–1.16]) per increase of 1 type of stressful life event). Fracture risk was not significantly different between stressful life event-accelerated bone loss subgroups (p=0.08). Conclusions In these older men, stressful life events were associated with a small, dose-related increase in risk of concurrent accelerated hip bone loss. Low frequency of fractures limited assessment of whether rapid bone loss mediates any association of stressful life events with incident fractures. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and to investigate the mechanism that may underlie this association

Numerical model of ice melange expansion during abrupt ice-shelf collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guttenberg, N.; Abbot, D. S.; Amundson, J. M.; Burton, J. C.; Cathles, L. M.; Macayeal, D. R.; Zhang, W.

2010-12-01

Satellite imagery of the February 2008 Wilkins Ice-Shelf Collapse event reveals that a large percentage of the involved ice shelf was converted to capsized icebergs and broken fragments of icebergs over a relatively short period of time, possibly less than 24 hours. The extreme violence and short time scale of the event, and the considerable reduction of gravitational potential energy between upright and capsized icebergs, suggests that iceberg capsize might be an important driving mechanism controlling both the rate and spatial extent of ice shelf collapse. To investigate this suggestion, we have constructed an idealized, 2-dimensional model of a disintegrating ice shelf composed of a large number (N~100 to >1000) of initially well-packed icebergs of rectangular cross section. The model geometry consists of a longitudinal cross section of the idealized ice shelf from grounding line (or the upstream extent of ice-shelf fragmentation) to seaward ice front, and includes the region beyond the initial ice front to cover the open, ice-free water into which the collapsing ice shelf expands. The seawater in which the icebergs float is treated as a hydrostatic fluid in the computation of iceberg orientation (e.g., the evaluation of buoyancy forces and torques), thereby eliminating the complexities of free-surface waves, but net horizontal drift of the icebergs is resisted by a linear drag law designed to energy dissipation by viscous forces and surface-gravity-wave radiation. Icebergs interact via both elastic and inelastic contacts (typically a corner of one iceberg will scrape along the face of its neighbor). Ice-shelf collapse in the model is embodied by the mass capsize of a large proportion of the initially packed icebergs and the consequent advancement of the ice front (leading edge). Model simulations are conducted to examine (a) the threshold of stability (e.g., what density of initially capsizable icebergs is needed to allow a small perturbation to the system

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Pan-Arctic sea ice-algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice.

PubMed

Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian

2017-11-01

There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Wind Tunnel Tests Conducted to Develop an Icing Flight Simulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ratvasky, Thomas P.

2001-01-01

As part of NASA's Aviation Safety Program goals to reduce aviation accidents due to icing, NASA Glenn Research Center is leading a flight simulator development activity to improve pilot training for the adverse flying characteristics due to icing. Developing flight simulators that incorporate the aerodynamic effects of icing will provide a critical element in pilot training programs by giving pilots a pre-exposure of icing-related hazards, such as ice-contaminated roll upset or tailplane stall. Integrating these effects into training flight simulators will provide an accurate representation of scenarios to develop pilot skills in unusual attitudes and loss-of-control events that may result from airframe icing. In order to achieve a high level of fidelity in the flight simulation, a series of wind tunnel tests have been conducted on a 6.5-percent-scale Twin Otter aircraft model. These wind tunnel tests were conducted at the Wichita State University 7- by 10-ft wind tunnel and Bihrle Applied Research's Large Amplitude Multiple Purpose Facility in Neuburg, Germany. The Twin Otter model was tested without ice (baseline), and with two ice configurations: 1) Ice on the horizontal tail only; 2) Ice on the wing, horizontal tail, and vertical tail. These wind tunnel tests resulted in data bases of aerodynamic forces and moments as functions of angle of attack; sideslip; control surface deflections; forced oscillations in the pitch, roll, and yaw axes; and various rotational speeds. A limited amount of wing and tail surface pressure data were also measured for comparison with data taken at Wichita State and with flight data. The data bases from these tests will be the foundation for a PC-based Icing Flight Simulator to be delivered to Glenn in fiscal year 2001.

Possible Mechanisms for Turbofan Engine Ice Crystal Icing at High Altitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsao, Jen-Ching; Struk, Peter M.; Oliver, Michael

2014-01-01

A thermodynamic model is presented to describe possible mechanisms of ice formation on unheated surfaces inside a turbofan engine compression system from fully glaciated ice crystal clouds often formed at high altitude near deep convective weather systems. It is shown from the analysis that generally there could be two distinct types of ice formation: (1) when the "surface freezing fraction" is in the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the freezing of water melt from fully or partially melted ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accretion with strong adhesion to the surface, and (2) when the "surface melting fraction" is the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the further melting of ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accumulation of un-melted ice crystals with relatively weak bonding to the surface. The model captures important qualitative trends of the fundamental ice-crystal icing phenomenon reported earlier1,2 from the research collaboration work by NASA and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada. Further, preliminary analysis of test data from the 2013 full scale turbofan engine ice crystal icing test3 conducted in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) has also suggested that (1) both types of ice formation occurred during the test, and (2) the model has captured some important qualitative trend of turning on (or off) the ice crystal ice formation process in the tested engine low pressure compressor (LPC) targeted area under different icing conditions that ultimately would lead to (or suppress) an engine core roll back (RB) event.

Possible Mechanisms for Turbofan Engine Ice Crystal Icing at High Altitude

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsao, Jen-Ching; Struk, Peter M.; Oliver, Michael J.

2016-01-01

A thermodynamic model is presented to describe possible mechanisms of ice formation on unheated surfaces inside a turbofan engine compression system from fully glaciated ice crystal clouds often formed at high altitude near deep convective weather systems. It is shown from the analysis that generally there could be two distinct types of ice formation: (1) when the "surface freezing fraction" is in the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the freezing of water melt from fully or partially melted ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accretion with strong adhesion to the surface, and (2) when the "surface melting fraction" is the range of 0 to 1, dominated by the further melting of ice crystals, the ice structure is formed from accumulation of un-melted ice crystals with relatively weak bonding to the surface. The model captures important qualitative trends of the fundamental ice-crystal icing phenomenon reported earlier (Refs. 1 and 2) from the research collaboration work by NASA and the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada. Further, preliminary analysis of test data from the 2013 full scale turbofan engine ice crystal icing test (Ref. 3) conducted in the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) has also suggested that (1) both types of ice formation occurred during the test, and (2) the model has captured some important qualitative trend of turning on (or off) the ice crystal ice formation process in the tested engine low pressure compressor (LPC) targeted area under different icing conditions that ultimately would lead to (or suppress) an engine core roll back (RB) event.

Examination Of A Strong Downslope Warming Wind Event Over The Larsen Ice Shelf In Antarctica Through Modeling And Aircraft Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grosvenor, D. P.; Choularton, T. W.; Gallagher, M. W.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; King, J. C.

2009-12-01

The high mountains of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) provide a climatic barrier between the west and east. The east side is generally blocked from the warmer oceanic air of the west and is consequently usually under the influence of colder continental air. On occasion, however, air from the west can cross the barrier in the form of strong winds travelling down the eastern slopes, which are also very warm and dry due to adiabatic descent. They penetrate onto the Larsen ice shelves where they lead to above zero surface temperatures and are therefore likely to encourage surface melting. Crevasse propagation due to the weight of accumulated meltwater is currently thought to have been the major factor in causing the near total disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. In January 2006 the British Antarctic Survey performed an aircraft flight over the Larsen C ice shelf on the east side of the AP, which sampled a strong downslope wind event. Surface flux measurements over the ice shelf suggest that the sensible heat provided by the warm jets would be likely to be negated by latent heat losses from ice ablation. The main cause of any ice melting was likely to be due to shortwave radiation input. However, the warming from the jets is still likely to be important by acting as an on/off control for melting by keeping air temperatures above zero. In addition, the dryness of the winds is likely to prevent cloud cover and thus maximize exposure of the ice shelf to solar energy input. This case study has been modeled using the WRF mesoscale model. The model reproduces the strong downslope winds seen by the aircraft with good comparisons of wind speed and temperature profiles through the wind jets. Further comparisons to surface station data have allowed progress towards achieving the best set up of the model for this case. The modeling agrees with the results of the aircraft study in suggesting that solar radiation input is likely to provide the largest amount of energy for

Event-by-Event Hydrodynamics+Jet Energy Loss: A Solution to the R_{AA}⊗v_{2} Puzzle.

PubMed

Noronha-Hostler, Jacquelyn; Betz, Barbara; Noronha, Jorge; Gyulassy, Miklos

2016-06-24

High p_{T}>10  GeV elliptic flow, which is experimentally measured via the correlation between soft and hard hadrons, receives competing contributions from event-by-event fluctuations of the low-p_{T} elliptic flow and event-plane angle fluctuations in the soft sector. In this Letter, a proper account of these event-by-event fluctuations in the soft sector, modeled via viscous hydrodynamics, is combined with a jet-energy-loss model to reveal that the positive contribution from low-p_{T} v_{2} fluctuations overwhelms the negative contributions from event-plane fluctuations. This leads to an enhancement of high-p_{T}>10  GeV elliptic flow in comparison to previous calculations and provides a natural solution to the decade-long high-p_{T} R_{AA}⊗v_{2} puzzle. We also present the first theoretical calculation of high-p_{T} v_{3}, which is shown to be compatible with current LHC data. Furthermore, we discuss how short-wavelength jet-medium physics can be deconvoluted from the physics of soft, bulk event-by-event flow observables using event-shape engineering techniques.

Field observations of slush ice generated during freeze-up in arctic coastal waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reimnitz, E.; Kempema, E.W.

1987-01-01

In some years, large volumes of slush ice charged with sediment are generated from frazil crystals in the shallow Beaufort Sea during strong storms at the time of freeze-up. Such events terminate the navigation season, and because of accompanying hostile conditions, little is known about the processes acting. The water-saturated slush ice, which may reach a thickness of 4 m, exists for only a few days before freezing from the surface downward arrests further wave motion or pancake ice forms. Movements of small vessels and divers in the slush ice occurs only in phase with passing waves, producing compression and rarefaction, and internal pressure pulses. Where in contact with the seafloor, the agitated slush ice moves cobble-size material, generates large sediment ripples, and may possibly produce a flat rampart observed on the arctic shoreface in some years. Processes charging the slush ice with as much as 1000 m3 km-2 of sediment remain uncertain, but our field observations rule out previously proposed filtration from turbid waters as a likely mechanism. Sedimentary particles apparently are only trapped in the interstices of the slush ice rather than being held by adhesion, since wave-related internal pressure oscillations result in downward particle movement and cleansing of the slush ice. This loss of sediment explains the typical downward increase in sediment concentration in that part of the fast-ice canopy composed largely of frazil ice. The congealing slush ice in coastal water does not become fast ice until grounded ridges are formed in the stamukhi zone, one to two months after freeze-up begins. During this period of new-ice mobility, long-range sediment transport occurs. The sediment load held by the fast-ice canopy in the area between the Colville and Sagavanirktok River deltas in the winter of 1978-1979 was 16 times larger than the yearly river input to the same area. This sediment most likely was rafted from Canada, more than 400 km to the east, during

Effects of Ice Formations on Airplane Performance in Level Cruising Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preston, G. Merritt; Blackman, Calvin C.

1948-01-01

A flight investigation in natural icing conditions was conducted by the NACA to determine the effect of ice accretion on airplane performance. The maximum loss in propeller efficiency encountered due to ice formation on the propeller blades was 19 percent. During 87 percent of the propeller icing encounters, losses of 10 percent or less were observed. Ice formations on all of the components of the airplane except the propellers during one icing encounter resulted in an increase in parasite drag of the airplane of 81 percent. The control response of the airplane in this condition was marginal.

Cloudy with a Chance of Ice: The Stratification of Titan's Vernal Ponds and Formation of Ethane Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soderblom, J. M.; Steckloff, J. K.

2017-12-01

Cassini ISS observations revealed regions on Saturn's moon Titan that become significantly darker (lower albedo) following storm events [1]. These regions are observed to be topographically low [2], indicating that liquid (predominantly methane-ethane-nitrogen) is pooling on Titan after these storm events. These dark ponds, however, are then observed to significantly brighten (higher albedo relative to pre-storm albedo), before fading to their pre-storm albedos [2-3]. We interpret these data to indicate ethane ice formation, which cools from evaporation of methane. The formation of ethane ices results from a unique sequence of thermophysical and thermochemical phenomena. Initially, the methane in the mixture evaporates, cooling the pond. Nitrogen, dissolved primarily in the methane, exsolves, further cooling the liquid. However, because nitrogen is significantly more soluble in cooler methane-hydrocarbon mixtures, relatively more methane than nitrogen leaves the fluid, increasing the relative fraction of nitrogen. This increased nitrogen fraction increases the density of the liquid, as nitrogen is significantly denser than methane or ethane (pure ethane's density is intermediate to that of methane and nitrogen). At around 85 K the mixture is as dense as pure liquid ethane. Thus, further evaporative methane loss and cooling at the pond's surface leads to a chemical stratification, with an increasingly ethane rich epilimnion (surface layer) overlying a methane rich hypolimnion (subsurface layer). Further evaporation of methane from the ethane-rich epilimnion drives its temperature and composition toward the methane-ethane-nitrogen liquidus curve, causing pure ethane ice to precipitate out of solution and settle to the bottom of the pool. This settling would obscure the ethane ice from Cassini VIMS and ISS, which would instead continue to appear as a dark pond on the surface. As the ethane precipitates out completely, a binary methane-nitrogen liquid mixture remains

Tropospheric characteristics over sea ice during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kayser, Markus; Maturilli, Marion; Graham, Robert; Hudson, Stephen; Cohen, Lana; Rinke, Annette; Kim, Joo-Hong; Park, Sang-Jong; Moon, Woosok; Granskog, Mats

2017-04-01

Over recent years, the Arctic Ocean region has shifted towards a younger and thinner sea-ice regime. The Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition was designed to investigate the atmosphere-snow-ice-ocean interactions in this new ice regime north of Svalbard. Here we analyze upper-air measurements made by radiosondes launched twice daily together with surface meteorology observations during N-ICE2015 from January to June 2015. We study the multiple cyclonic events observed during N-ICE2015 with respect to changes in the vertical thermodynamic structure, sudden increases in moisture content and temperature, temperature inversions and boundary layer dynamics. The influence of synoptic cyclones is strongest under polar night conditions, when radiative cooling is most effective and the moisture content is low. We find that transitions between the radiatively clear and opaque state are the largest drivers of changes to temperature inversion and stability characteristics in the boundary layer during winter. In spring radiative fluxes warm the surface leading to lifted temperature inversions and a statically unstable boundary layer. The unique N-ICE2015 dataset is used for case studies investigating changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere under varying synoptic conditions. The goal is to deepen our understanding of synoptic interactions within the Arctic climate system, to improve model performance, as well as to identify gaps in instrumentation, which precludes further investigations.

Characterization of Ice Roughness Variations in Scaled Glaze Icing Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Stephen T.; Vargas, Mario; Tsao, Jen-Ching

2016-01-01

Because of the significant influence of surface tension in governing the stability and breakdown of the liquid film in flooded stagnation regions of airfoils exposed to glaze icing conditions, the Weber number is expected to be a significant parameter governing the formation and evolution of ice roughness. To investigate the influence of the Weber number on roughness formation, 53.3-cm (21-in.) and 182.9-cm (72-in.) NACA 0012 airfoils were exposed to flow conditions with essentially the same Weber number and varying stagnation collection efficiency to illuminate similarities of the ice roughness created on the different airfoils. The airfoils were exposed to icing conditions in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Following exposure to the icing event, the airfoils were then scanned using a ROMER Absolute Arm scanning system. The resulting point clouds were then analyzed using the self-organizing map approach of McClain and Kreeger (2013) to determine the spatial roughness variations along the surfaces of the iced airfoils. The roughness characteristics on each airfoil were then compared using the relative geometries of the airfoil. The results indicate that features of the ice shape and roughness such as glaze-ice plateau limits and maximum airfoil roughness were captured well by Weber number and collection efficiency scaling of glaze icing conditions. However, secondary ice roughness features relating the instability and waviness of the liquid film on the glaze-ice plateau surface are scaled based on physics that were not captured by the local collection efficiency variations.

Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

2015-03-01

The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

Ion Irradiation of H2-Laden Porous Water-ice Films: Implications for Interstellar Ices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raut, U.; Mitchell, E. H.; Baragiola, R. A.

2015-10-01

To understand the effects of cosmic-ray (CR) impacts on interstellar icy grains immersed in H2 gas, we have irradiated porous water-ice films loaded with H2 with 100 keV H+. The ice films were exposed to H2 gas at different pressures following deposition and during irradiation. A net H2 loss is observed during irradiation due to competition between ion-induced sputtering and gas adsorption. The initial H2 loss cross-section, 4(1) × 10-14 cm2, was independent of film thickness, H2, and proton fluxes. In addition to sputtering, irradiation also closes nanopores, trapping H2 in the film with binding that exceeds physical absorption energies. As a result, 2%-7% H2 is retained in the ice following irradiation to high fluences. We find that the trapped H2 concentration increases with decreasing Φ, the ratio of ion to H2 fluxes, suggesting that as high as 8% solid H2 can be trapped in interstellar ice by CR or stellar wind impacts.

Polynyas and Ice Production Evolution in the Ross Sea (PIPERS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackley, S. F.

2017-12-01

One focus of the PIPERS cruise into the Ross Sea ice cover during April-June 2017 was the Terra Nova Bay (TNB) polynya where joint measurements of air-ice-ocean wave interaction were conducted over twelve days. In Terra Nova Bay, measurements were made in three katabatic wind events each with sustained winds over 35 ms-1 and air temperatures below -15C. Near shore, intense wave fields with wave amplitudes of over 2m and 7-9 sec periods built and large amounts of frazil ice crystals grew. The frazil ice gathered initially into short and narrow plumes that eventually were added laterally to create longer and wider streaks or bands. Breaking waves within these wider streaks were dampened which appeared to enhance the development of pancake ice. Eventually, the open water areas between the streaks sealed off, developing a complete ice cover of 100 percent concentration (80-90 percent pancakes, 20-10 percent frazil) over a wide front (30km). The pancakes continued to grow in diameter and thickness as waves alternately contracted and expanded the ice cover, with the thicker larger floes further diminishing the wave field and lateral motion between pancakes until the initial pancake ice growth ceased. The equilibrium thickness of the ice was 20-30cm in the pancake ice. While the waves had died off however, katabatic wind velocities were sustained and resulted in a wide area of concentrated, rafted, pancake ice that was rapidly advected downstream until the end of the katabatic event. High resolution TerraSar-X radar satellite imagery showed the length of the ice area produced in one single event extended over 300km or ten times the length of the open water area during one polynya event. The TNB polynya is therefore an "ice factory" where frazil ice is manufactured into pancake ice floes that are then pushed out of the assembly area and advected, rafted (and occasionally piled up into "dragon skin" ice), until the katabatic wind dies off at the coastal source.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Nonlinear dynamics of ice-wedge networks and resulting sensitivity to severe cooling events.

PubMed

Plug, L J; Werner, B T

2002-06-27

Patterns of subsurface wedges of ice that form along cooling-induced tension fractures, expressed at the ground surface by ridges or troughs spaced 10 30 m apart, are ubiquitous in polar lowlands. Fossilized ice wedges, which are widespread at lower latitudes, have been used to infer the duration and mean temperature of cold periods within Proterozoic and Quaternary climates, and recent climate trends have been inferred from fracture frequency in active ice wedges. Here we present simulations from a numerical model for the evolution of ice-wedge networks over a range of climate scenarios, based on the interactions between thermal tensile stress, fracture and ice wedges. We find that short-lived periods of severe cooling permanently alter the spacing between ice wedges as well as their fracture frequency. This affects the rate at which the widths of ice wedges increase as well as the network's response to subsequent climate change. We conclude that wedge spacing and width in ice-wedge networks mainly reflect infrequent episodes of rapidly falling ground temperatures rather than mean conditions.

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian ...GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite- derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice... Lagrangian sea-ice back trajectories to estimate thermodynamic and dynamic (advection) ice loss. APPROACH We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Flavor Composition of the High-Energy Neutrino Events in IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mena, Olga; Palomares-Ruiz, Sergio; Vincent, Aaron C.

2014-08-01

The IceCube experiment has recently reported the observation of 28 high-energy (>30 TeV) neutrino events, separated into 21 showers and 7 muon tracks, consistent with an extraterrestrial origin. In this Letter, we compute the compatibility of such an observation with possible combinations of neutrino flavors with relative proportion (αe∶αμ∶ατ)⊕. Although the 7∶21 track-to-shower ratio is naively favored for the canonical (1∶1∶1)⊕ at Earth, this is not true once the atmospheric muon and neutrino backgrounds are properly accounted for. We find that, for an astrophysical neutrino E-2 energy spectrum, (1∶1∶1)⊕ at Earth is disfavored at 81% C.L. If this proportion does not change, 6 more years of data would be needed to exclude (1∶1∶1)⊕ at Earth at 3σ C.L. Indeed, with the recently released 3-yr data, that flavor composition is excluded at 92% C.L. The best fit is obtained for (1∶0∶0)⊕ at Earth, which cannot be achieved from any flavor ratio at sources with averaged oscillations during propagation. If confirmed, this result would suggest either a misunderstanding of the expected background events or a misidentification of tracks as showers, or even more compellingly, some exotic physics which deviates from the standard scenario.

Deicing and Anti-Icing Unite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

With funding from Glenn's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, Cox & Company, Inc., built an ice protection system that combines thermal anti-icing and mechanical deicing to keep airfoils (wings and other lifting surfaces) clear of ice. Cox's concept was to combine an anti-icing system with NASA's Electro-Mechanical Expulsion Deicing System, a mechanical deicer. The anti-icing element of this hybrid would reduce the aerodynamic losses associated with deicing systems. The Cox Low Power Ice Protection System is the first new aircraft ice protection system that has been approved by the Federal Aviation Administration for use on a business jet in 40 years. While the system is currently sized for Premier class aircraft, there are no apparent constraints prohibiting its use on aircraft of any size. The company is investigating further applications, such as adapting the system for unmanned aerial vehicles and other military aircraft.

The Broken Belt: Meteorite Concentrations on Stranded Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, R. P.

2003-01-01

Since the first Antarctic meteorite concentrations were discovered more than 25 years ago, many theories regarding the role of iceflow in the production of meteorite concentrations have been put forward, and most agree on the basic principles. These models suggest that as the East Antarctic icesheet flows toward the margins of the continent, meteorites randomly located within the volume of ice are transported toward the icesheet margin. Where mountains or subsurface obstructions block glacial flow, diversion of ice around or over an obstruction reduces horizontal ice movement rates adjacent to the barriers and creates a vertical (upward) component of movement. If local mechanisms for ice loss (ablation) exist at such sites, an equilibrium surface will develop according to the balance between ice supply and loss, and the cargo of meteorites is exhumed on a blue ice surface. The result is a conceptual conveyor belt bringing meteorite-bearing volumes of ice from the interior of the continent to stagnant or slowmoving surfaces where ice is then lost and a precious cargo is left as a lag deposit. Cassidy et al. provides an excellent overview of how this model has been adapted to several Antarctic stranding surfaces.

Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Welker, Jeffery A.

2015-01-01

Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes (18O and 2H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

PSL Icing Facility Upgrade Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griffin, Thomas A.; Dicki, Dennis J.; Lizanich, Paul J.

2014-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL) was recently upgraded to perform engine inlet ice crystal testing in an altitude environment. The system installed 10 spray bars in the inlet plenum for ice crystal generation using 222 spray nozzles. As an altitude test chamber, the PSL is capable of simulating icing events at altitude in a groundtest facility. The system was designed to operate at altitudes from 4,000 to 40,000 ft at Mach numbers up to 0.8M and inlet total temperatures from -60 to +15 degF. This paper and presentation will be part of a series of presentations on PSL Icing and will cover the development of the icing capability through design, developmental testing, installation, initial calibration, and validation engine testing. Information will be presented on the design criteria and process, spray bar developmental testing at Cox and Co., system capabilities, and initial calibration and engine validation test. The PSL icing system was designed to provide NASA and the icing community with a facility that could be used for research studies of engine icing by duplicating in-flight events in a controlled ground-test facility. With the system and the altitude chamber we can produce flight conditions and cloud environments to simulate those encountered in flight. The icing system can be controlled to set various cloud uniformities, droplet median volumetric diameter (MVD), and icing water content (IWC) through a wide variety of conditions. The PSL chamber can set altitudes, Mach numbers, and temperatures of interest to the icing community and also has the instrumentation capability of measuring engine performance during icing testing. PSL last year completed the calibration and initial engine validation of the facility utilizing a Honeywell ALF502-R5 engine and has duplicated in-flight roll back conditions experienced during flight testing. This paper will summarize the modifications and buildup of the facility to accomplish these tests.

A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Sune O.; Bigler, Matthias; Blockley, Simon P.; Blunier, Thomas; Buchardt, Susanne L.; Clausen, Henrik B.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Fischer, Hubertus; Gkinis, Vasileios; Guillevic, Myriam; Hoek, Wim Z.; Lowe, J. John; Pedro, Joel B.; Popp, Trevor; Seierstad, Inger K.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Svensson, Anders M.; Vallelonga, Paul; Vinther, Bo M.; Walker, Mike J. C.; Wheatley, Joe J.; Winstrup, Mai

2014-12-01

Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a

Enhanced Arctic Amplification Began at the Mid-Brunhes Event ~400,000 years ago.

PubMed

Cronin, T M; Dwyer, G S; Caverly, E K; Farmer, J; DeNinno, L H; Rodriguez-Lazaro, J; Gemery, L

2017-11-03

Arctic Ocean temperatures influence ecosystems, sea ice, species diversity, biogeochemical cycling, seafloor methane stability, deep-sea circulation, and CO 2 cycling. Today's Arctic Ocean and surrounding regions are undergoing climatic changes often attributed to "Arctic amplification" - that is, amplified warming in Arctic regions due to sea-ice loss and other processes, relative to global mean temperature. However, the long-term evolution of Arctic amplification is poorly constrained due to lack of continuous sediment proxy records of Arctic Ocean temperature, sea ice cover and circulation. Here we present reconstructions of Arctic Ocean intermediate depth water (AIW) temperatures and sea-ice cover spanning the last ~ 1.5 million years (Ma) of orbitally-paced glacial/interglacial cycles (GIC). Using Mg/Ca paleothermometry of the ostracode Krithe and sea-ice planktic and benthic indicator species, we suggest that the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), a major climate transition ~ 400-350 ka, involved fundamental changes in AIW temperature and sea-ice variability. Enhanced Arctic amplification at the MBE suggests a major climate threshold was reached at ~ 400 ka involving Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), inflowing warm Atlantic Layer water, ice sheet, sea-ice and ice-shelf feedbacks, and sensitivity to higher post-MBE interglacial CO 2 concentrations.

Enhanced Arctic amplification began at the Mid-Brunhes Event 430,000 years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Dwyer, Gary S.; Caverly, Emma; Farmer, Jesse; DeNinno, Lauren H.; Rodriguez-Lazaro, Julio; Gemery, Laura

2017-01-01

Arctic Ocean temperatures influence ecosystems, sea ice, species diversity, biogeochemical cycling, seafloor methane stability, deep-sea circulation, and CO2 cycling. Today's Arctic Ocean and surrounding regions are undergoing climatic changes often attributed to "Arctic amplification" - that is, amplified warming in Arctic regions due to sea-ice loss and other processes, relative to global mean temperature. However, the long-term evolution of Arctic amplification is poorly constrained due to lack of continuous sediment proxy records of Arctic Ocean temperature, sea ice cover and circulation. Here we present reconstructions of Arctic Ocean intermediate depth water (AIW) temperatures and sea-ice cover spanning the last ~ 1.5 million years (Ma) of orbitally-paced glacial/interglacial cycles (GIC). Using Mg/Ca paleothermometry of the ostracode Krithe and sea-ice planktic and benthic indicator species, we suggest that the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), a major climate transition ~ 400-350 ka, involved fundamental changes in AIW temperature and sea-ice variability. Enhanced Arctic amplification at the MBE suggests a major climate threshold was reached at ~ 400 ka involving Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), inflowing warm Atlantic Layer water, ice sheet, sea-ice and ice-shelf feedbacks, and sensitivity to higher post-MBE interglacial CO2 concentrations.

Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing.

PubMed

Tedstone, Andrew J; Nienow, Peter W; Sole, Andrew J; Mair, Douglas W F; Cowton, Thomas R; Bartholomew, Ian D; King, Matt A

2013-12-03

Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt-induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt-induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ~3.9 σ above the 1958-2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Common-midpoint radar surveys of ice sheets: a tool for better ice and bed property inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holschuh, N.; Christianson, K.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Jacobel, R. W.

2016-12-01

In response to the demand for observationally derived boundary conditions in ice-sheet models, geophysicists are striving to more quantitatively interpret the reflection amplitudes of ice penetrating radar data. Inversions for ice-flow parameters and basal properties typically use common-offset radar data, which contain a single observation of bed reflection amplitude at each location in the survey; however, the radar equation has more than one unknown - ice temperature, subglacial water content, and bedrock roughness cannot be uniquely determined without additional constraints. In this study, we adapt traditional seismic property inversion techniques to radar data, using additional information collected with a common-midpoint (CMP) radar survey geometry (which varies the source-receiver offset for each subsurface target). Using two of the first common-midpoint ice-penetrating radar data sets collected over thick ice in Antarctica and Greenland, we test the hypothesis that these data can be used to disentangle the contributions of ice conductivity and bed permittivity to the received reflection amplitudes. We focus specifically on the corrections for the angular dependence of antenna gain and surface reflectivity, refractive focusing effects, and surface scattering losses. Inferred temperature profiles, derived from the constrained ice conductivities at Kamb Ice Stream and the North East Greenland Ice Stream, suggest higher than expected depth-integrated temperatures, as well as non-physical depth trends (with elevated temperatures near the surface). We hypothesize that this is driven in part by offset-dependent interferences between the sub-wavelength layers that make up a single nadir reflection, and present a convolutional model that describes how this interference might systematically reduce reflection power with offset (thereby elevating the inferred attenuation rate). If these additional offset-dependent power losses can be isolated and removed, common

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels

Sea Ice, Hydrocarbon Extraction, Rain-on-Snow and Tundra Reindeer Nomadism in Arctic Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, B. C.; Kumpula, T.; Meschtyb, N.; Laptander, R.; Macias-Fauria, M.; Zetterberg, P.; Verdonen, M.

2015-12-01

It is assumed that retreating sea ice in the Eurasian Arctic will accelerate hydrocarbon development and associated tanker traffic along Russia's Northern Sea Route. However, oil and gas extraction along the Kara and Barents Sea coasts will likely keep developing rapidly regardless of whether the Northwest Eurasian climate continues to warm. Less certain are the real and potential linkages to regional biota and social-ecological systems. Reindeer nomadism continues to be a vitally important livelihood for indigenous tundra Nenets and their large herds of semi-domestic reindeer. Warming summer air temperatures over the NW Russian Arctic have been linked to increases in tundra productivity, longer growing seasons, and accelerated growth of tall deciduous shrubs. These temperature increases have, in turn, been linked to more frequent and sustained summer high-pressure systems over West Siberia, but not to sea ice retreat. At the same time, winters have been warming and rain-on-snow (ROS) events have become more frequent and intense, leading to record-breaking winter and spring mortality of reindeer. What is driving this increase in ROS frequency and intensity is not clear. Recent modelling and simulation have found statistically significant near-surface atmospheric warming and precipitation increases during autumn and winter over Arctic coastal lands in proximity to regions of sea-ice loss. During the winter of 2013-14 an extensive and lasting ROS event led to the starvation of 61,000 reindeer out of a population of ca. 300,000 animals on Yamal Peninsula, West Siberia. Historically, this is the region's largest recorded mortality episode. More than a year later, participatory fieldwork with nomadic herders during spring-summer 2015 revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from this extreme event will unfold for years to come. There is an urgent need to understand whether and how ongoing Barents and Kara Sea ice retreat may affect the region's ancient

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Insights into ice-ocean interactions and fjord circulation from fjord sea surface temperatures at the Petermann Glacier, Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, T.; Shepherd, B.; Abdalati, W.; Scambos, T. A.

2016-12-01

Dynamic processes at marine-terminating outlet glaciers are responsible for over one-third of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss. Enhanced intrusion of warm ocean waters at the termini of these glaciers has contributed to elevated rates of ice thinning and terminus retreat over the last two decades. In situ oceanographic measurements and modeling studies show that basal melting of glaciers and subglacial discharge can cause buoyant plumes of water to rise to the fjord surface and influence fjord circulation characteristics. The temperature of these surface waters holds clues about ice-ocean interactions and small-scale circulation features along the glacier terminus that could contribute to outlet glacier mass loss, but the magnitude and duration of temperature variability remains uncertain. Satellite remote sensing has proven very effectiver for acquiring sea surface temperatuer (SST) data from these remote regions on a long-term, consistent basis and shows promise for identifying temperature anomalies at the ice front. However, these data sets have not been widely utilized to date. Here, we use satellite-derived sea surface temperatures to identify fjord surface outflow characteristics from 2000 to present at the Petermann Glacier, which drains 4% of the GIS and is experiencing 80% of its mass loss from basal melt. We find a general SST warming trend that coincides with early sea ice breakup and precedes two major calving events and ice speedup that began in 2010. Persistent SST anomalies along the terminus provide evidence of warm outflow that is consistent with buoyant plume model predictions. However, the anomalies are not evident early in the time series, suggesting that ocean inflow and ice-ocean interactions have experienced a regime shift since 2000. Our results provide valuable insight into fjord circulation patterns and the forcing mechanisms that contribute to terminus retreat. Comparing our results to ongoing modeling experiments, time series from

Failure of hippocampal deactivation during loss events in treatment-resistant depression.

PubMed

Johnston, Blair A; Tolomeo, Serenella; Gradin, Victoria; Christmas, David; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

2015-09-01

Major depressive disorder is characterized by anhedonia, cognitive biases, ruminations, hopelessness and increased anxiety. Blunted responses to rewards have been reported in a number of recent neuroimaging and behavioural studies of major depressive disorder. In contrast, neural responses to aversive events remain an under-studied area. While selective serotonergic reuptake inhibitors are often effective in treating major depressive disorder, their mechanism of action remains unclear. Following a series of animal model investigations of depressive illness and serotonergic function, Deakin and Graeff predicted that brain activity in patients with major depressive disorder is associated with an overactive dorsal raphe nucleus with overactive projections to the amygdala, periaqueductal grey and striatum, and an underactive median raphe nucleus with underactive projections to the hippocampus. Here we describe an instrumental loss-avoidance and win-gain reinforcement learning functional magnetic resonance imaging study with 40 patients with highly treatment-resistant major depressive disorder and never-depressed controls. The dorsal raphe nucleus/ periaqueductal grey region of the midbrain and hippocampus were found to be overactive in major depressive disorder during unsuccessful loss-avoidance although the median raphe nucleus was not found to be underactive. Hippocampal overactivity was due to a failure to deactivate during loss events in comparison to controls, and hippocampal over-activity correlated with depression severity, self-report 'hopelessness' and anxiety. Deakin and Graeff argued that the median raphe nucleus normally acts to inhibit consolidation of aversive memories via the hippocampus and this system is underactive in major depressive disorder, facilitating the development of ruminations, while the dorsal raphe nucleus system is engaged by distal cues predictive of threats and is overactive in major depressive disorder. During win events the striatum

Ice core carbonyl sulfide measurements from a new South Pole ice core (SPICECORE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, M.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Saltzman, E. S.

2017-12-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the troposphere with a present-day mixing ratio of about 500 ppt. Direct and indirect emissions from the oceans are the predominant sources of atmospheric COS. The primary removal mechanism is uptake by terrestrial plants during photosynthesis. Because plants do not respire COS, atmospheric COS levels are linked to terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Ancient air trapped in polar ice cores has been used to reconstruct COS records of the past atmosphere, which can be used to infer past GPP variability and potential changes in oceanic COS emission. We are currently analyzing samples from a newly drilled intermediate depth ice core from South Pole, Antarctica (SPICECORE). This core is advantageous for studying COS because the cold temperatures of South Pole ice lead to very slow rates of in situ loss due to hydrolysis. One hundred and eighty-four bubbly ice core samples have been analyzed to date with gas ages ranging from about 9.2 thousand (733 m depth) to 75 years (126 m depth) before present. After a 2% correction for gravitational enrichment in the firn, the mean COS mixing ratio for the data set is 312±15 ppt (±1s), with the data set median also equal to 312 ppt. The only significant long-term trend in the record is a 5-10% increase in COS during the last 2-3 thousand years of the Holocene. The SPICECORE data agree with previously published ice core COS records from other Antarctic sites during times of overlap, confirming earlier estimates of COS loss rates to in situ hydrolysis in ice cores. Antarctic ice core data place strict constraints on the COS mixing ratio and its range of variability in the southern hemisphere atmosphere during the last several millennia. Implications for the atmospheric COS budget will be discussed.

Amery Ice Shelf's 'Loose Tooth' Gets Looser

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The Amery Ice Shelf is an important dynamic system responsible for draining about 16% of the grounded East Antarctic ice sheet through only 2% of its coastline. Most of the mass input to the system occurs from the Lambert and several other glaciers. Mass loss from the system occurs through basal melting and iceberg calving. These images from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) portray the ice shelf front on October 6, 2001 (top) and September 29, 2002 (bottom), and illustrate changes that took place over the year elapsed between the two views.

Two longitudinal rifts, oriented roughly parallel to the direction of ice flow and measuring about 25 and 15 kilometers in length, are apparent near the seaward edge of the ice shelf. Between them, a transverse fracture extends eastward from the base of the western rift. This rift system is colloquially named the Amery 'loose tooth.' Over the course of the one-year interval between these two MISR images, the ice front has advanced approximately 1.6 - 1.7 kilometers, and the transverse fracture and a three-way fissure at the juncture of the rifts have widened. When the transverse fracture eventually reaches the eastern rift, a large iceberg (25 kilometers x 25 kilometers) will be released.

These false-color multi-angle composites combine red-band data from MISR's 60o forward, nadir, and 60o aftward viewing cameras, displayed as red, green and blue, respectively. Different colors represent angular reflectance variations. Since generally smooth surfaces predominantly forward-scatter sunlight, these appear in shades of blue. Rough surfaces tend to backward-scatter sunlight, and these appear in shades of red or orange. Low clouds appear bright purple, since they exhibit both forward and backward-scattering. Using this technique, textural variations among ice types are revealed, and clouds can be easily distinguished from ice. Illumination conditions on the two dates are nearly identical.

Understanding the

The distribution of ground ice on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Jakosky, B. M.

1993-01-01

A wealth of geologic evidence indicates that subsurface water ice has played an important role in the evolution of Martian landforms. Theoretical models of the stability of ground ice show that in the near-surface regolith ice is currently stable at latitudes poleward of about +/- 40 deg and below a depth of a few centimeters to a meter, with some variations with longitude. If ice is not previously present at a particular location where it is stable, atmospheric water will diffuse into the regolith and condense as ice, driven by the annual subsurface thermal oscillations. The lower boundary of this ice deposit is found to occur at a depth (typically a few meters) where the annual thermal oscillations give way to the geothermal gradient. In the equatorial regions near-surface ice is currently not stable, resulting in the sublimation of any existing ice and subsequent loss to the atmosphere. However, subliming ice might be maintained at a steady-state depth, where diffusion and loss to the atmosphere are balanced by resupply from a possible deeper source of water (either deeper, not yet depleted, ice deposits or ground water). This depth is typically a few tens to hundreds of meters and depends primarily on the surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, being deeper for a higher surface temperature and a lower geothermal gradient. Such an equatorial deposit is characterized by the regolith ice content being low nearer the surface and increasing with depth in the deposit. Oscillations in the orbit will affect this picture of ground ice in two ways: by causing periodic changes in the pattern of near-surface stability and by producing subsurface thermal waves that may be capable of driving water ice deeper into the regolith.

Rapid bedrock uplift in the Antarctic Peninsula explained by viscoelastic response to recent ice unloading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nield, G. A.; Barletta, V. R.; Bordoni, A.; King, M. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Clarke, P. J.; Domack, E. W.

2013-12-01

Since 1995 several ice shelves in the northern Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed and triggered ice-mass unloading, invoking a solid Earth response that has been recorded at GPS stations. The previous attempt to model the observation of rapid uplift following the 2002 breakup of Larsen B Ice Shelf failed, being limited by incomplete knowledge of the pattern of ice unloading and possibly the assumption of an elastic-only mechanism. We make use of a new high resolution dataset of ice elevation change that captures ice-mass loss north of 66°S to show that non-linear uplift of the Palmer GPS station since 2002 cannot be explained by an elastic-only signal. We apply a viscoelastic model with linear Maxwell rheology to predict uplift since 1995. We vary the thickness of the elastic lithosphere and upper mantle viscosity, and test the fit to the Palmer GPS time series. We find a best fitting Earth model with an upper mantle viscosity of less than 2 x 1018 Pa s, much lower than previously modelled, and limited sensitivity to lithospheric thickness. Comparison to vertical velocities from six GPS stations deployed after 2009 (the LARISSA network) verifies the results from the model with reduction of signal from up to 14 mm/yr to up to 3 mm/yr. These sites have a unique spatial arrangement and are ideally placed to record uplift close to the region of largest mass loss. Including the time series of the newer sites in the model tuning produces a narrower range of lithospheric thickness estimates but with the drawback of needing to assume the pre-2009 background uplift rate. The Palmer GPS time series offers a rare opportunity to study the time-evolution of low-viscosity solid earth response to a well-captured ice unloading event.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Multiple ice-binding proteins of probable prokaryotic origin in an Antarctic lake alga, Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-MDV (Chlorophyceae).

PubMed

Raymond, James A; Morgan-Kiss, Rachael

2017-08-01

Ice-associated algae produce ice-binding proteins (IBPs) to prevent freezing damage. The IBPs of the three chlorophytes that have been examined so far share little similarity across species, making it likely that they were acquired by horizontal gene transfer (HGT). To clarify the importance and source of IBPs in chlorophytes, we sequenced the IBP genes of another Antarctic chlorophyte, Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-MDV (Chlamy-ICE). Genomic DNA and total RNA were sequenced and screened for known ice-associated genes. Chlamy-ICE has as many as 50 IBP isoforms, indicating that they have an important role in survival. The IBPs are of the DUF3494 type and have similar exon structures. The DUF3494 sequences are much more closely related to prokaryotic sequences than they are to sequences in other chlorophytes, and the chlorophyte IBP and ribosomal 18S phylogenies are dissimilar. The multiple IBP isoforms found in Chlamy-ICE and other algae may allow the algae to adapt to a greater variety of ice conditions than prokaryotes, which typically have a single IBP gene. The predicted structure of the DUF3494 domain has an ice-binding face with an orderly array of hydrophilic side chains. The results indicate that Chlamy-ICE acquired its IBP genes by HGT in a single event. The acquisitions of IBP genes by this and other species of Antarctic algae by HGT appear to be key evolutionary events that allowed algae to extend their ranges into polar environments. © 2017 Phycological Society of America.

Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

PubMed

Depoorter, M A; Bamber, J L; Griggs, J A; Lenaerts, J T M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Moholdt, G

2013-10-03

Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Is snow-ice now a major contributor to sea ice mass balance in the western Transpolar Drift region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Merkouriadi, I.; Cheng, B.; Rösel, A.; Granskog, M. A.

2017-12-01

During the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) campaign, which took place in the first half of 2015 north of Svalbard, a deep winter snow pack (50 cm) on sea ice was observed, that was 50% thicker than earlier climatological studies suggested for this region. Moreover, a significant fraction of snow contributed to the total ice mass in second-year ice (SYI) (9% on average). Interestingly, very little snow (3% snow by mass) was present in first-year ice (FYI). The combination of sea ice thinning and increased precipitation north of Svalbard is expected to promote the formation of snow-ice. Here we use the 1-D snow/ice thermodynamic model HIGHTSI forced with reanalysis data, to show that for the case study of N-ICE2015, snow-ice would even form over SYI with an initial thickness of 2 m. In current conditions north of Svalbard, snow-ice is ubiquitous and contributes to the thickness growth up to 30%. This contribution is important, especially in the absence of any bottom thermodynamic growth due to the thick insulating snow cover. Growth of FYI north of Svalbard is mainly controlled by the timing of growth onset relative to snow precipitation events and cold spells. These usually short-lived conditions are largely determined by the frequency of storms entering the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean. In our case, a later freeze onset was favorable for FYI growth due to less snow accumulation in early autumn. This limited snow-ice formation but promoted bottom thermodynamic growth. We surmise these findings are related to a regional phenomenon in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, with frequent storm events which bring increasing amounts of precipitation in autumn and winter, and also affect the duration of cold temperatures required for ice growth in winter. We discuss the implications for the importance of snow-ice in the future Arctic, formerly believed to be non-existent in the central Arctic due to thick perennial ice.

Angular correlation between IceCube high-energy starting events and starburst sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moharana, Reetanjali; Razzaque, Soebur, E-mail: moharana.reetanjali@mail.huji.ac.il, E-mail: srazzaque@uj.ac.za

Starburst galaxies and star-forming regions in the Milkyway, with high rate of supernova activities, are candidate sources of high-energy neutrinos. Using a gamma-ray selected sample of these sources we perform statistical analysis of their angular correlation with the four-year sample of high-energy starting events (HESE), detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. We find that the two samples (starburst galaxies and local star-forming regions) are correlated with cosmic neutrinos at ∼ (2–3)σ (pre-trial) significance level, when the full HESE sample with deposited energy ∼> 20 TeV is considered. However when we consider the HESE sample with deposited energy ∼> 60 TeV,more » which is almost free of atmospheric neutrino and muon backgrounds, the significance of correlation decreased drastically. We perform a similar study for Galactic sources in the 2nd Catalog of Hard Fermi -LAT Sources (2FHL, >50 GeV) catalog as well, obtaining ∼ (2–3)σ (pre-trial) correlation, however the significance of correlation increases with higher cutoff energy in the HESE sample for this case. We also fit available gamma-ray data from these sources using a pp interaction model and calculate expected neutrino fluxes. We find that the expected neutrino fluxes for most of the sources are at least an order of magnitude lower than the fluxes required to produce the HESE neutrinos from these sources. This puts the starburst sources being the origin of the IceCube HESE neutrinos in question.« less

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Coupling rainfall observations and satellite soil moisture for predicting event soil loss in Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todisco, Francesca; Brocca, Luca; Termite, Loris Francesco; Wagner, Wolfgang

2015-04-01

The accuracy of water soil loss prediction depends on the ability of the model to account for effects of the physical phenomena causing the output and the accuracy by which the parameters have been determined. The process based models require considerable effort to obtain appropriate parameter values and their failure to produce better results than achieved using the USLE/RUSLE model, encourages the use of the USLE/RUSLE model in roles of which it was not designed. In particular it is widely used in watershed models even at the event temporal scale. At hillslope scale, spatial variability in soil and vegetation result in spatial variations in soil moisture and consequently in runoff within the area for which soil loss estimation is required, so the modeling approach required to produce those estimates needs to be sensitive to those spatial variations in runoff. Some models include explicit consideration of runoff in determining the erosive stresses but this increases the uncertainty of the prediction due to the difficulty in parameterising the models also because the direct measures of surface runoff are rare. The same remarks are effective also for the USLE/RUSLE models including direct consideration of runoff in the erosivity factor (i.e. USLE-M by Kinnell and Risse, 1998, and USLE-MM by Bagarello et al., 2008). Moreover actually most of the rainfall-runoff models are based on the knowledge of the pre-event soil moisture that is a fundamental variable in the rainfall-runoff transformation. In addiction soil moisture is a readily available datum being possible to have easily direct pre-event measures of soil moisture using in situ sensors or satellite observations at larger spatial scale; it is also possible to derive the antecedent water content with soil moisture simulation models. The attempt made in the study is to use the pre-event soil moisture to account for the spatial variation in runoff within the area for which the soil loss estimates are required. More

Satellite Observations of Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Nathan; Markus, Thorsten

2012-01-01

We utilize satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat combined with passive microwave measurements to analyze basin-wide changes in Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume over a 5 year period from 2003-2008. Sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes. Using a five year time-series, we show that only small ice thickness changes of less than -0.03 m/yr and volume changes of -266 cu km/yr and 160 cu km/yr occurred for the spring and summer periods, respectively. The calculated thickness and volume trends are small compared to the observational time period and interannual variability which masks the determination of long-term trend or cyclical variability in the sea ice cover. These results are in stark contrast to the much greater observed losses in Arctic sea ice volume and illustrate the different hemispheric changes of the polar sea ice covers in recent years.

Analysis and Prediction of Ice Shedding for a Full-Scale Heated Tail Rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreeger, Richard E.; Work, Andrew; Douglass, Rebekah; Gazella, Matthew; Koster, Zakery; Turk, Jodi

2016-01-01

When helicopters are to fly in icing conditions, it is necessary to consider the possibility of ice shed from the rotor blades. In 2013, a series of tests were conducted on a heated tail rotor at NASA Glenn's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The tests produced several shed events that were captured on camera. Three of these shed events were captured at a sufficiently high frame rate to obtain multiple images of the shed ice in flight that had a sufficiently long section of shed ice for analysis. Analysis of these shed events is presented and compared to an analytical Shedding Trajectory Model (STM). The STM is developed and assumes that the ice breaks off instantly as it reaches the end of the blade, while frictional and viscous forces are used as parameters to fit the STM. The trajectory of each shed is compared to that predicted by the STM, where the STM provides information of the shed group of ice as a whole. The limitations of the model's underlying assumptions are discussed in comparison to experimental shed events.

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.

2015-07-01

Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.

The Kolka-Karmadon rock/ice slide of 20 September 2002: an extraordinary event of historical dimensions in North Ossetia, Russian Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haeberli, Wilfried; Huggel, Christian; Kääb, Andreas; Zgraggen-Oswald, Sonja; Polkvoj, Alexander; Galushkin, Igor; Zotikov, Igor; Osokin, Nikolay

On 20 September 2002, an enormous rock/ice slide and subsequent mud-flow occurred on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, Northern Ossetia, Russian Caucasus. It started on the north-northeast wall of Dzhimarai-Khokh (4780 m a.s.l.) and seriously affected the valley of Genaldon/Karmadon. Immediate governmental actions, available scientific information, first reconstructions, hazard assessments and monitoring activities as well as initial expert judgments/recommendations are documented in order to enable more detailed analyses and modelling of the event by the wider scientific community. Among the most remarkable aspects related to this event are (1) the relation between the recent event and somewhat smaller but quite similar events that occurred earlier in historical times (1835, 1902), (2) the interactions between unstable local geological structures and complex geothermal and hydraulic conditions in the starting zone with permafrost, cold to polythermal hanging glaciers and volcanic effects (hot springs) in close contact with each other, (3) the erosion and incorporation of a debris-covered valley glacier largely enhancing the sliding volume of rocks, ice, firn, snow, water and probably air to a total of about 100 × 106 m3, and (4) the astonishingly high flow velocities (up to 300 km h-1) and enormous length of travel path (18 km plus 15 km of debris/mud-flow). This extraordinary case illustrates that large catastrophic events in high mountain regions typically involve a multitude of factors and require integrated consideration of complex chains of processes, a task which must be undertaken by qualified groups of experts.

Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2017-12-01

TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To

Long-range-transported bioaerosols captured in snow cover on Mount Tateyama, Japan: impacts of Asian-dust events on airborne bacterial dynamics relating to ice-nucleation activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maki, Teruya; Furumoto, Shogo; Asahi, Yuya; Lee, Kevin C.; Watanabe, Koichi; Aoki, Kazuma; Murakami, Masataka; Tajiri, Takuya; Hasegawa, Hiroshi; Mashio, Asami; Iwasaka, Yasunobu

2018-06-01

The westerly wind travelling at high altitudes over eastern Asia transports aerosols from the Asian deserts and urban areas to downwind areas such as Japan. These long-range-transported aerosols include not only mineral particles but also microbial particles (bioaerosols), that impact the ice-cloud formation processes as ice nuclei. However, the detailed relations of airborne bacterial dynamics to ice nucleation in high-elevation aerosols have not been investigated. Here, we used the aerosol particles captured in the snow cover at altitudes of 2450 m on Mt Tateyama to investigate sequential changes in the ice-nucleation activities and bacterial communities in aerosols and elucidate the relationships between the two processes. After stratification of the snow layers formed on the walls of a snow pit on Mt Tateyama, snow samples, including aerosol particles, were collected from 70 layers at the lower (winter accumulation) and upper (spring accumulation) parts of the snow wall. The aerosols recorded in the lower parts mainly came from Siberia (Russia), northern Asia and the Sea of Japan, whereas those in the upper parts showed an increase in Asian dust particles originating from the desert regions and industrial coasts of Asia. The snow samples exhibited high levels of ice nucleation corresponding to the increase in Asian dust particles. Amplicon sequencing analysis using 16S rRNA genes revealed that the bacterial communities in the snow samples predominately included plant associated and marine bacteria (phyla Proteobacteria) during winter, whereas during spring, when dust events arrived frequently, the majority were terrestrial bacteria of phyla Actinobacteria and Firmicutes. The relative abundances of Firmicutes (Bacilli) showed a significant positive relationship with the ice nucleation in snow samples. Presumably, Asian dust events change the airborne bacterial communities over Mt Tateyama and carry terrestrial bacterial populations, which possibly induce ice

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Ocean Wave-to-Ice Energy Transfer Determined from Seafloor Pressure and Ice Shelf Seismic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Bromirski, P. D.; Gerstoft, P.; Stephen, R. A.; Wiens, D.; Aster, R. C.; Nyblade, A.

2017-12-01

Ice shelves play an important role in buttressing land ice from reaching the sea, thus restraining the rate of sea level rise. Long-period gravity wave impacts excite vibrations in ice shelves that may trigger tabular iceberg calving and/or ice shelf collapse events. Three kinds of seismic plate waves were continuously observed by broadband seismic arrays on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) and on the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf: (1) flexural-gravity waves, (2) flexural waves, and (3) extensional Lamb waves, suggesting that all West Antarctic ice shelves are subjected to similar gravity wave excitation. Ocean gravity wave heights were estimated from pressure perturbations recorded by an ocean bottom differential pressure gauge at the RIS front, water depth 741 m, about 8 km north of an on-ice seismic station that is 2 km from the shelf front. Combining the plate wave spectrum, the frequency-dependent energy transmission and reflection at the ice-water interface were determined. In addition, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the RIS are estimated from the plate wave motions, and compared with the widely used values. Quantifying these ice shelf parameters from observations will improve modeling of ice shelf response to ocean forcing, and ice shelf evolution.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Energetic electron precipitation characteristics observed from Antarctica during a flux dropout event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clilverd, Mark A.; Cobbett, Neil; Rodger, Craig J.; Brundell, James B.; Denton, Michael H.; Hartley, David P.; Rodriguez, Juan V.; Danskin, Donald; Raita, Tero; Spanswick, Emma L.

2013-11-01

from two autonomous VLF radio receiver systems installed in a remote region of the Antarctic in 2012 is used to take advantage of the juxtaposition of the L = 4.6 contour, and the Hawaii-Halley, Antarctica, great circle path as it passes over thick Antarctic ice shelf. The ice sheet conductivity leads to high sensitivity to changing D region conditions, and the quasi constant L shell highlights outer radiation belt processes. The ground-based instruments observed several energetic electron precipitation events over a moderately active 24 h period, during which the outer radiation belt electron flux declined at most energies and subsequently recovered. Combining the ground-based data with low and geosynchronous orbiting satellite observations on 27 February 2012, different driving mechanisms were observed for three precipitation events with clear signatures in phase space density and electron anisotropy. Comparison between flux measurements made by Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) in low Earth orbit and by the Antarctic instrumentation provides evidence of different cases of weak and strong diffusion into the bounce loss cone, helping to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the precipitation of energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Strong diffusion events occurred as the <600 keV fluxes began to recover as a result of adiabatic transport of electrons. One event appeared to have a factor of about 10 to 100 times more flux than was reported by POES, consistent with weak diffusion into the bounce loss cone. Two events had a factor of about 3 to 10 times more >30 keV flux than was reported by POES, more consistent with strong diffusion conditions.

On thin ice/in hot water: Rapid drawdown of Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in the decades after collapse in response to a changing ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, C. C.; Gardner, A. S.

2016-12-01

Over the past 50 years, several Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely. One such collapse was the Wordie Ice Shelf (WIS), located in Marguerite Bay, which began to disintegrate around 1989. We use several observational datasets to show that the glaciers that used to maintain WIS have experienced a surprising acceleration in flow ( 500m/yr) that began 2008, nearly 20 years after the onset of WIS collapse. During the same period, airborne altimetry from NASA Operation IceBridge shows the glaciers experienced a drawdown at their calving fronts between 4 and 9 m/yr, a near-doubling in rate of elevation change from the 1990's and early-2000's. The time lag between WIS collapse and rapid glacier drawdown suggests that these recent changes are unrelated to loss of buttressing. We identify possible links to changes in ocean conditions using in-situ Palmer Station Long-Term Ecological Research (PAL LTER) ocean CTD-gridded observations (Martinson et al., 2008) taken along the continental shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) since 1993. We use ECCO2 simulations and atmospheric reanalysis data to characterize changes in atmospheric forcing. We also measure changes in ice shelf area using historic archives and Landsat imagery for 50 glacier systems along the WAP from 1945 to present. Surface structural changes in the WIS system, e.g., melt ponds, sea/fast ice presence, and crevasse density/orientation, are also examined. We conclude that recent changes in WIS tributaries likely resulted from a significant increase in upwelling of warm, salty Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) due to enhanced wind forcing following coincident global atmospheric oscillation events, namely a positive Southern Annular Mode and a moderate La Nina event. This enabled enhanced incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay between 2008-2014, in part due to the deep Marguerite Trough that connects the bay to the continental shelf break, along which the southern boundary

Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Rignot, Eric

2006-07-15

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.