Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui; Brenner, Anita; Bromwich, David
2012-01-01
During 2003 to 2008, the mass gain of the Antarctic ice sheet from snow accumulation exceeded the mass loss from ice discharge by 49 Gt/yr (2.5% of input), as derived from ICESat laser measurements of elevation change. The net gain (86 Gt/yr) over the West Antarctic (WA) and East Antarctic ice sheets (WA and EA) is essentially unchanged from revised results for 1992 to 2001 from ERS radar altimetry. Imbalances in individual drainage systems (DS) are large (-68% to +103% of input), as are temporal changes (-39% to +44%). The recent 90 Gt/yr loss from three DS (Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd Coast) of WA exceeds the earlier 61 Gt/yr loss, consistent with reports of accelerating ice flow and dynamic thinning. Similarly, the recent 24 Gt/yr loss from three DS in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is consistent with glacier accelerations following breakup of the Larsen B and other ice shelves. In contrast, net increases in the five other DS of WA and AP and three of the 16 DS in East Antarctica (EA) exceed the increased losses. Alternate interpretations of the mass changes driven by accumulation variations are given using results from atmospheric-model re-analysis and a parameterization based on 5% change in accumulation per degree of observed surface temperature change. A slow increase in snowfall with climate waRMing, consistent with model predictions, may be offsetting increased dynamic losses.
Investigating ice shelf mass loss processes from continuous satellite altimetry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fricker, H. A.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic Ice Sheet continually gains mass through snowfall over its large area and, to remain approximately in equilibrium, it sheds most of this excess mass through two processes, basal melting and iceberg calving, that both occur in the floating ice shelves surrounding the continent. Small amounts of mass are also lost by surface melting, which occurs on many ice shelves every summer to varying degrees, and has been linked to ice-shelf collapse via hydrofracture on ice shelves that have been pre-weakened. Ice shelves provide mechanical support to `buttress' seaward flow of grounded ice, so that ice-shelf thinning and retreat result in enhanced ice discharge to the ocean. Ice shelves are susceptible to changes in forcing from both the atmosphere and the ocean, which both change on a broad range of timescales to modify mass gains and losses at the surface and base, and from internal instabilities of the ice sheet itself. Mass loss from iceberg calving is episodic, with typical intervals between calving events on the order of decades. Since ice shelves are so vast, the only viable way to monitor them is with satellites. Here, we discuss results from satellite radar and laser altimeter data from one NASA satellite (ICESat), and four ESA satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, CryoSat-2) to obtain estimates of ice-shelf surface height since the early 1990s. The continuous time series show accelerated losses in total Antarctic ice-shelf volume from 1994 to 2017, and allow us to investigate the processes causing ice-shelf mass change. For Larsen C, much of the variability comes from changing atmospheric conditions affecting firn state. In the Amundsen Sea, the rapid thinning is a combination of accelerated ocean-driven thinning and ice dynamics. This long-term thinning signal is, however, is strongly modulated by ENSO-driven interannual variability. However, observations of ocean variability around Antarctica are sparse, since these regions are often covered in sea ice
Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.
2015-04-01
While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica's mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003-2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of - 121 ± 8 Gt /yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of - 18 ± 5 Gt /yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica's loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at - 92 ± 10 Gt /yr.
Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06
Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.
2008-01-01
A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.
Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E.; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung
2015-05-01
Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr2.
Surface Mass Balance Contributions to Acceleration of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss during 2003- 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seo, K. W.; Wilson, C. R.; Scambos, T. A.; Kim, B. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Tian, B.; Kim, B.; Eom, J.
2015-12-01
Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the GRACE mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6±7.2 GTon/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2±2.0 GTon/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8±5.8 GTon/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1±6.5 GTon/yr2.
Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013.
Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung
2015-05-01
Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr 2 . Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr 2 . However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr 2 . Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr 2 .
Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.
2015-04-01
Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.
Mass Balance of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula and its Ongoing Response to Ice Shelf Loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scambos, T. A.; Berthier, E.; Haran, T. M.; Shuman, C. A.; Cook, A. J.; Bohlander, J. A.
2012-12-01
An assessment of the most rapidly changing areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (north of 66°S) shows that ice mass loss for the region is dominated by areas affected by eastern-Peninsula ice shelf losses in the past 20 years. Little if any of the mass loss is compensated by increased snowfall in the northwestern or far northern areas. We combined satellite stereo-image DEM differencing and ICESat-derived along-track elevation changes to measure ice mass loss for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 66°S between 2001-2010, focusing on the ICESat-1 period of operation (2003-2009). This mapping includes all ice drainages affected by recent ice shelf loss in the northeastern Peninsula (Prince Gustav, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, and Larsen B) as well as James Ross Island, Vega Island, Anvers Island, Brabant Island and the adjacent west-flowing glaciers. Polaris Glacier (feeding the Larsen Inlet, which collapsed in 1986) is an exception, and may have stabilized. Our method uses ASTER and SPOT-5 stereo-image DEMs to determine dh/dt for elevations below 800 m; at higher elevations ICESat along-track elevation differencing is used. To adjust along-track path offsets between its 2003-2009 campaigns, we use a recent DEM of the Peninsula to establish and correct for cross-track slope (Cook et al., 2012, doi:10.5194/essdd-5-365-2012; http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html) . We reduce the effect of possible seasonal variations in elevation by using only integer-year repeats of the ICESat tracks for comparison. Mass losses are dominated by the major glaciers that had flowed into the Prince Gustav (Boydell, Sjorgren, Röhss), Larsen A (Edgeworth, Bombardier, Dinsmoor, Drygalski), and Larsen B (Hektoria, Jorum, and Crane) embayments. The pattern of mass loss emphasizes the significant and multi-decadal response to ice shelf loss. Areas with shelf losses occurring 30 to 100s of years ago seem to be relatively stable or losing mass only slowly (western glaciers, northernmost areas). The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.
2013-03-01
The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo
2007-01-01
Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.
Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong
2018-03-14
We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.
A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps.
Noël, B; van de Berg, W J; Lhermitte, S; Wouters, B; Machguth, H; Howat, I; Citterio, M; Moholdt, G; Lenaerts, J T M; van den Broeke, M R
2017-03-31
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -1 , or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.
A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps
Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.
2017-01-01
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt−1, or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming. PMID:28361871
A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J.; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.
2017-03-01
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (+/-5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36+/-16 Gt-1, or ~14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.
Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.
Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H
2015-04-01
Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.
Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel
2016-04-01
Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.
Mass loss of the Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps from satellite altimetry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wouters, Bert; Noël, Brice; Moholdt, Geir; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel
2017-04-01
At its rapidly warming margins, the Greenland Ice Sheet is surrounded by (semi-)detached glaciers and ice caps (GIC). Although they cover only roughly 5% of the total glaciated area in the region, they are estimated to account for 15-20% of the total sea level rise contribution of Greenland. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mass changes of the peripheral GICs, however, remains poorly constrained. In this presentation, we use satellite altimetry from ICESat and Cryosat-2 combined with a high-resolution regional climate model to derive a 14 year time series (2003-2016) of regional elevation and mass changes. The total mass loss has been relatively constant during this period, but regionally, the GICs show marked temporal variations. Whereas thinning was concentrated along the eastern margin during 2003-2009, western GICs became the prime sea level rise contributors in recent years. Mass loss in the northern region has been steadily increasing throughout the record, due to a strong atmospheric warning and a deterioration of the capacity of the firn layer to buffer the resulting melt water.
Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.
2014-12-01
The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.
Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss
Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David
2015-01-01
The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381
Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay
2012-01-01
Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;
2011-01-01
We derive mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) for 2003-07 from ICESat laser altimetry and compare them with results for 1992-2002 from ERS radar and airborne laser altimetry. The GIS continued to grow inland and thin at the margins during 2003 07, but surface melting and accelerated flow significantly increased the marginal thinning compared with the 1990s. The net balance changed from a small loss of 7 plus or minus 3 Gt a 1(sup -1) in the 1990s to 171 plus or minus 4 Gt a (sup -1) for 2003-07, contributing 0.5 mm a(sup -1) to recent global sea-level rise. We divide the derived mass changes into two components: (1) from changes in melting and ice dynamics and (2) from changes in precipitation and accumulation rate. We use our firn compaction model to calculate the elevation changes driven by changes in both temperature and accumulation rate and to calculate the appropriate density to convert the accumulation-driven changes to mass changes. Increased losses from melting and ice dynamics (17-206 Gt a(sup-1) are over seven times larger than increased gains from precipitation (10 35 Gt a(sup-1) during a warming period of approximately 2 K (10 a)(sup -1) over the GIS. Above 2000m elevation, the rate of gain decreased from 44 to 28 Gt a(sup-1), while below 2000m the rate of loss increased from 51 to 198 Gt a(sup-1). Enhanced thinning below the equilibrium line on outlet glaciers indicates that increased melting has a significant impact on outlet glaciers, as well as accelerating ice flow. Increased thinning at higher elevations appears to be induced by dynamic coupling to thinning at the margins on decadal timescales.
Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reeh, N.
1984-01-01
Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.
Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.
Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H
2015-12-17
The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to
Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.
2015-12-01
The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to
Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.
Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay
2013-06-06
Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wouters, Bert; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Moholdt, Geir; Gardner, Alex S.; Noel, Brice; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.
2016-04-01
Historically, ice loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps has been one of the largest contributors to sea level rise over the last century. Of particular interest are the glaciers and ice caps in the North-Atlantic region of the Arctic. Despite the cold climate in this area, considerable melting and runoff occurs in summer. A small increase in temperature will have an immediate effect on these processes, so that a large change in the Arctic ice volume can be expected in response to the anticipated climate change in the coming century. Unfortunately, direct observations of glaciers are sparse and are biased toward glaciers systems in accessible, mostly maritime, climate conditions. Remote sensing is therefore essential to monitor the state of the the North-Atlantic glaciers and ice caps. In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that has been made in estimating the ice mass balance of these regions, with a particular focus on measurements made by ESA's Cryosat-2 radar altimeter mission (2010-present). Compared to earlier altimeter mission, Cryosat-2 provides unprecedented coverage of the cryosphere, with a resolution down to 1 km or better and sampling at monthly intervals. Combining the Cryosat-2 measurements with the laser altimetry data from ICESat (2003-2009) gives us a 12 yr time series of glacial mass loss in the North Atlantic. We find excellent agreement between the altimetry measurements and independent observations by the GRACE mission, which directly 'weighs' the ice caps, albeit at a much lower resolution. Mass loss in the region has increased from 120 Gigatonnes per year in 2003-2009 to roughly 140 Gt/yr in 2010-2014, with an important contribution from Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps. Importantly, the mass loss is not stationary, but shows large regional interannual variability, with mass loss shifting between eastern and western regions from year to year. Comparison with regional climate models shows that these shifts can be
Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.
2017-12-01
Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.
The future of ice sheets and sea ice: between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss.
Notz, Dirk
2009-12-08
We discuss the existence of cryospheric "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice-albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.
The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss
Notz, Dirk
2009-01-01
We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet. PMID:19884496
The direct mechanical influence of sea ice state on ice sheet mass loss via iceberg mélange
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robel, A.
2017-12-01
The interaction between sea ice and land ice has typically been considered as a large-scale exchange of moisture, heat and salinity through the ocean and atmosphere. However, recent observations from marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland indicate that the long-term decline of local sea ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in nearby iceberg calving and associated ice sheet mass loss. Near glacier calving fronts, sea ice binds icebergs together into an aggregate granular material known as iceberg mélange. Studies have hypothesized that mélange may suppress calving by exerting a mechanical buttressing force directly on the glacier terminus. Here, we show explicitly how sea ice thickness and concentration play a critical role in setting the material strength of mélange. To do so, we adapt a discrete element model to simulate mélange as a cohesive granular material. In these simulations, mélange laden with thick, dense, landfast sea ice can produce enough resistance to shut down calving at the terminus. When sea ice thins, mélange weakens, reducing the mechanical force of mélange on the glacier terminus, and increasing the likelihood of calving. We discuss whether longer periods of sea-ice-free conditions in winter may lead to a transition from currently slow calving, predominantly occurring in the summer, to rapid calving, occurring throughout the year. We also discuss the potential role of freshwater discharge in promoting sea ice formation in fjords, potentially strengthening mélange.
Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.
2014-12-01
The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.
Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time
Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.
2012-01-01
The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland’s mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade. PMID:23169646
Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J
2006-07-15
The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.
2016-12-01
The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal
Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan
2013-01-01
Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.
Mass Balance of the West Antarctic Ice-Sheet from ICESat Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui
2011-01-01
Mass balance estimates for 2003-2008 are derived from ICESat laser altimetry and compared with estimates for 1992-2002 derived from ERS radar altimetry. The net mass balance of 3 drainage systems (Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd) for 2003-2008 is a loss of 100 Gt/yr, which increased from a loss of 70 Gt/yr for the earlier period. The DS including the Bindschadler and MacAyeal ice streams draining into the Ross Ice Shelf has a mass gain of 11 Gt/yr for 2003-2008, compared to an earlier loss of 70 Gt/yr. The DS including the Whillans and Kamb ice streams has a mass gain of 12 Gt/yr, including a significant thickening on the upper part of the Kamb DS, compared to a earlier gain of 6 Gt/yr (includes interpolation for a large portion of the DS). The other two DS discharging into the Ronne Ice Shelf and the northern Ellsworth Coast have a mass gain of 39 Gt/yr, compared to a gain of 4 Gt/yr for the earlier period. Overall, the increased losses of 30 Gt/yr in the Pine Island, Thwaites/Smith, and the coast of Marie Bryd DSs are exceeded by increased gains of 59 Gt/yr in the other 4 DS. Overall, the mass loss from the West Antarctic ice sheet has decreased to 38 Gt/yr from the earlier loss of 67 Gt/yr, reducing the contribution to sea level rise to 0.11 mm/yr from 0.19 mm/yr
Overview of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Dynamics from ICESat Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay
2010-01-01
The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to determine the present-day mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, identify changes that may be occurring in the surface-mass flux and ice dynamics, and estimate their contributions to global sea-level rise. Although ICESat's three lasers were planned to make continuous measurements for 3 to 5 years, the mission was re-planned to operate in 33-day campaigns 2 to 3 times each year following failure of the first laser after 36 days. Seventeen campaigns were conducted with the last one in the Fall of 2009. Mass balance maps derived from measured ice-sheet elevation changes show that the mass loss from Greenland has increased significantly to about 170 Gt/yr for 2003 to 2007 from a state of near balance in the 1990's. Increased losses (189 Gt/yr) from melting and dynamic thinning are over seven times larger'than increased gains (25 gt/yr) from precipitation. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing mass at an increasing rate, but other parts of West Antarctica and the East Antarctic ice sheet are gaining mass at an increasing rate. Increased losses of 35 Gt/yr in Pine Island, Thwaites-Smith, and Marie-Bryd.Coast are more than balanced by gains in base of Peninsula and ice stream C, D, & E systems. From the 1992-2002 to 2003-2007 period, the overall mass balance for Antarctica changed from a loss of about 60 Gt/yr to near balance or slightly positive.
Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sauber, Jeanne M.
2008-01-01
The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.
Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet
Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.
2017-01-01
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014
Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L
2017-06-01
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.
2015-12-01
With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound
The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.
2015-12-01
Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Velicogna, I.; Sutterley, T. C.; A, G.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Ivins, E. R.
2016-12-01
We use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity fields to determine the regional acceleration in ice mass loss in Antarctica for 2002-2016. We find that the total mass loss is controlled by only a few regions. In Antarctica, the Amundsen Sea (AS) sector and the Antarctic Peninsula account for 65% and 18%, respectively, of the total loss (186 ± 10 Gt/yr) mainly from ice dynamics. The AS sector contributes most of the acceleration in loss (9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 ), and Queen Maud Land, East Antarctica, is the only sector with a significant mass gain due to a local increase in SMB (57 ± 5 Gt/yr). We compare GRACE regional mass balance estimates with independent estimates from ICESat-1 and Operation IceBridge laser altimetry, CryoSat-2 radar altimetry, and surface mass balance outputs from RACMO2.3. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, an area experiencing rapid retreat and mass loss to the sea, we find good agreement between GRACE and altimetry estimates. Comparison of GRACE with these independent techniques in East Antarctic shows that GIA estimates from the new regional ice deglaciation models underestimate the GIA correction in the EAIS interior, which implies larger losses of the Antarctica ice sheet by about 70 Gt/yr. Sectors where we are observing the largest losses are closest to warm circumpolar water, and with polar constriction of the westerlies enhanced by climate warming, we expect these sectors to contribute more and more to sea level as the ice shelves that protect these glaciers will melt faster in contact with more heat from the surrounding oc
Mass Loss Rates of Fasting Polar Bears.
Pilfold, Nicholas W; Hedman, Daryll; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Lunn, Nicholas J; Richardson, Evan
2016-01-01
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have adapted to an annual cyclic regime of feeding and fasting, which is extreme in seasonal sea ice regions of the Arctic. As a consequence of climate change, sea ice breakup has become earlier and the duration of the open-water period through which polar bears must rely on fat reserves has increased. To date, there is limited empirical data with which to evaluate the potential energetic capacity of polar bears to withstand longer fasts. We measured the incoming and outgoing mass of inactive polar bears (n = 142) that were temporarily detained by Manitoba Conservation and Water Stewardship during the open-water period near the town of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, in 2009-2014. Polar bears were given access to water but not food and held for a median length of 17 d. Median mass loss rates were 1.0 kg/d, while median mass-specific loss rates were 0.5%/d, similar to other species with high adiposity and prolonged fasting capacities. Mass loss by unfed captive adult males was identical to that lost by free-ranging individuals, suggesting that terrestrial feeding contributes little to offset mass loss. The inferred metabolic rate was comparable to a basal mammalian rate, suggesting that while on land, polar bears can maintain a depressed metabolic rate to conserve energy. Finally, we estimated time to starvation for subadults and adult males for the on-land period. Results suggest that at 180 d of fasting, 56%-63% of subadults and 18%-24% of adult males in this study would die of starvation. Results corroborate previous assessments on the limits of polar bear capacity to withstand lengthening ice-free seasons and emphasize the greater sensitivity of subadults to changes in sea ice phenology.
Antarctic Ice Shelf Loss Comes From Underneath
2017-12-08
Calving front of an ice shelf in West Antarctica. The traditional view on ice shelves, the floating extensions of seaward glaciers, has been that they mostly lose ice by shedding icebergs. A new study by NASA and university researchers has found that warm ocean waters melting the ice sheets from underneath account for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss in Antarctica. This image was taken during the 2012 Antarctic campaign of NASA's Operation IceBridge, a mission that provided data for the new ice shelf study. Read more: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jefferson Beck NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram
Mass budget of the glaciers and ice caps of the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canada, from 1991 to 2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Millan, Romain; Mouginot, Jeremie; Rignot, Eric
2017-02-01
Recent studies indicate that the glaciers and ice caps in Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI), Canada have experienced an increase in ice mass loss during the last two decades, but the contribution of ice dynamics to this loss is not well known. We present a comprehensive mapping of ice velocity using a suite of satellite data from year 1991 to 2015, combined with ice thickness data from NASA Operation IceBridge, to calculate ice discharge. We find that ice discharge increased significantly after 2011 in Prince of Wales Icefield, maintained or decreased in other sectors, whereas glacier surges have little impact on long-term trends in ice discharge. During 1991-2005, the QEI mass loss averaged 6.3 ± 1.1 Gt yr-1, 52% from ice discharge and the rest from surface mass balance (SMB). During 2005-2014, the mass loss from ice discharge averaged 3.5 ± 0.2 Gt yr-1 (10%) versus 29.6 ± 3.0 Gt yr-1 (90%) from SMB. SMB processes therefore dominate the QEI mass balance, with ice dynamics playing a significant role only in a few basins.
Mass Loss of Larsen B Tributary Glaciers (Antarctic Peninsula) Unabated Since 2002
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Berthier, Etienne; Scambos, Ted; Shuman, Christopher A.
2012-01-01
Ice mass loss continues at a high rate among the large glacier tributaries of the Larsen B Ice Shelf following its disintegration in 2002. We evaluate recent mass loss by mapping elevation changes between 2006 and 201011 using differencing of digital elevation models (DEMs). The measurement accuracy of these elevation changes is confirmed by a null test, subtracting DEMs acquired within a few weeks. The overall 2006201011 mass loss rate (9.0 2.1 Gt a-1) is similar to the 2001022006 rate (8.8 1.6 Gt a-1), derived using DEM differencing and laser altimetry. This unchanged overall loss masks a varying pattern of thinning and ice loss for individual glacier basins. On Crane Glacier, the thinning pulse, initially greatest near the calving front, is now broadening and migrating upstream. The largest losses are now observed for the HektoriaGreen glacier basin, having increased by 33 since 2006. Our method has enabled us to resolve large residual uncertainties in the Larsen B sector and confirm its state of ongoing rapid mass loss.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;
2013-01-01
Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.
The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss
Screen, James A.
2017-01-01
Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679
Khan, Shfaqat A; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers
2016-09-01
Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year.
Khan, Shfaqat A.; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H.; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A.; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers
2016-01-01
Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year. PMID:27679819
Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.
Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L
2012-04-25
Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wohlleben, Trudy M. H.
Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses and the polar atmosphere evolve codependently, and interactions between the two systems can lead to feedbacks, positive and negative. The two primary positive cryosphere-atmosphere feedbacks are: (1) The snow/ice-albedo feedback (where area changes in snow and/or ice cause changes in surface albedo and surface air temperatures, leading to further area changes in snow/ice); and (2) The elevation - mass balance feedback (where thickness changes in terrestrial ice masses cause changes to atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, leading to further ice thickness changes). In this thesis, numerical experiments are performed to: (1) quantify the magnitudes of the two feedbacks for chosen Canadian High Arctic terrestrial ice masses; and (2) to examine the direct and indirect consequences of surface air temperature changes upon englacial temperatures with implications for ice flow, mass flux divergence, and topographic evolution. Model results show that: (a) for John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, the magnitude of the terrestrial snow/ice-albedo feedback can locally exceed that of sea ice on less than decadal timescales, with implications for glacier response times to climate perturbations; (b) although historical air temperature changes might be the direct cause of measured englacial temperature anomalies in various glacier and ice cap accumulation zones, they can also be the indirect cause of their enhanced diffusive loss; (c) while the direct result of past air temperature changes has been to cool the interior of John Evans Glacier, and its bed, the indirect result has been to create and maintain warm (pressure melting point) basal temperatures in the ablation zone; and (d) for Devon Ice Cap, observed mass gains in the northwest sector of the ice cap would be smaller without orographic precipitation and the mass balance---elevation feedback, supporting the hypothesis that this feedback is playing a role in the
Reconstructing decades of glacial mass loss in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Lhermitte, Stef; Wouters, Bert; van den Broeke, Michiel
2017-04-01
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) comprises multiple small glaciers and ice caps mostly concentrated on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands situated in the north (NCAA) and south (SCAA) of the archipelago, respectively. Because they cover a relatively small area and show complex geometries, current regional climate models, generally running at 5 to 20 km horizontal resolution, struggle to accurately resolve surface mass change patterns. Here, we present a 58-year (1958-2015) reconstruction of daily, 1 km surface mass balance (SMB) of the CAA, statistically downscaled from the output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. By correcting for biases in elevation and ice albedo, the downscaling method significantly improves mass loss estimates over narrow outlet glaciers and isolated ice fields through better resolved marginal meltwater runoff. During the last two decades, CAA glaciers have experienced warmer conditions (+1.1°C) resulting in continued mass loss. NCAA and SCAA mass loss accounted for -24.7 ± 18.0 Gt yr-1 and -21.9 ± 8.2 Gt yr-1 respectively, almost tripling (-8.4 Gt yr-1) and doubling (-11.8 Gt yr-1) the 1958-1995 average. Following the recent warming, enhanced meltwater production reduced the refreezing capacity of inland firn layers by about 6%. While the interior of NCAA ice caps can still buffer most of the additional melt, the lack of a perennial firn area over low-lying SCAA glaciers caused uninterrupted mass loss since the 1980s, which, in the absence of significant refreezing capacity, indicates inevitable disappearance of these highly sensitive glaciers.
Quantifying ice loss in the eastern Himalayas since 1974 using declassified spy satellite imagery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maurer, Joshua M.; Rupper, Summer B.; Schaefer, Joerg M.
2016-09-01
Himalayan glaciers are important natural resources and climate indicators for densely populated regions in Asia. Remote sensing methods are vital for evaluating glacier response to changing climate over the vast and rugged Himalayan region, yet many platforms capable of glacier mass balance quantification are somewhat temporally limited due to typical glacier response times. We here rely on declassified spy satellite imagery and ASTER data to quantify surface lowering, ice volume change, and geodetic mass balance during 1974-2006 for glaciers in the eastern Himalayas, centered on the Bhutan-China border. The wide range of glacier types allows for the first mass balance comparison between clean, debris, and lake-terminating (calving) glaciers in the region. Measured glaciers show significant ice loss, with an estimated mean annual geodetic mass balance of -0.13 ± 0.06 m w.e. yr-1 (meters of water equivalent per year) for 10 clean-ice glaciers, -0.19 ± 0.11 m w.e. yr-1 for 5 debris-covered glaciers, -0.28 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr-1 for 6 calving glaciers, and -0.17 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr-1 for all glaciers combined. Contrasting hypsometries along with melt pond, ice cliff, and englacial conduit mechanisms result in statistically similar mass balance values for both clean-ice and debris-covered glacier groups. Calving glaciers comprise 18 % (66 km2) of the glacierized area yet have contributed 30 % (-0.7 km3) to the total ice volume loss, highlighting the growing relevance of proglacial lake formation and associated calving for the future ice mass budget of the Himalayas as the number and size of glacial lakes increase.
Measuring Two Decades of Ice Mass Loss using GRACE and SLR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.
2016-12-01
We use Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) to extend the time series of ice mass change back in time to 1994. The SLR series is of far lesser spatial resolution than GRACE, so we apply a constrained inversion technique to better localize the signal. We approximate the likely errors due to SLR's measurement errors combined with the inversion errors from using a low-resolution series, then estimate the interannual mass change over Greenland and Antarctica.
Mass loss on Himalayan glacier endangers water resources
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kehrwald, Natalie M.; Thompson, Lonnie G.; Tandong, Yao; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Schotterer, Ulrich; Alfimov, Vasily; Beer, Jürg; Eikenberg, Jost; Davis, Mary E.
2008-11-01
Ice cores drilled from glaciers around the world generally contain horizons with elevated levels of beta radioactivity including 36Cl and 3H associated with atmospheric thermonuclear bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s. Ice cores collected in 2006 from Naimona'nyi Glacier in the Himalaya (Tibet) lack these distinctive marker horizons suggesting no net accumulation of mass (ice) since at least 1950. Naimona'nyi is the highest glacier (6050 masl) documented to be losing mass annually suggesting the possibility of similar mass loss on other high-elevation glaciers in low and mid-latitudes under a warmer Earth scenario. If climatic conditions dominating the mass balance of Naimona'nyi extend to other glaciers in the region, the implications for water resources could be serious as these glaciers feed the headwaters of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra Rivers that sustain one of the world's most populous regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.
2012-12-01
Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.
The mass balance of the ice plain of Ice Stream B and Crary Ice Rise
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bindschadler, Robert
1993-01-01
The region in the mouth of Ice Stream B (the ice plain) and that in the vicinity of Crary Ice Rise are experiencing large and rapid changes. Based on velocity, ice thickness, and accumulation rate data, the patterns of net mass balance in these regions were calculated. Net mass balance, or the rate of ice thickness change, was calculated as the residual of all mass fluxes into and out of subregions (or boxes). Net mass balance provides a measure of the state of health of the ice sheet and clues to the current dynamics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alexander, Patrick M.; Tedesco, Marco; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Luthcke, Scott B.; Fettweis, Xavier; Larour, Eric
2016-06-01
Improving the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and ice sheet models (ISMs) to simulate spatiotemporal variations in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is crucial for prediction of future sea level rise. While several studies have examined recent trends in GrIS mass loss, studies focusing on mass variations at sub-annual and sub-basin-wide scales are still lacking. At these scales, processes responsible for mass change are less well understood and modeled, and could potentially play an important role in future GrIS mass change. Here, we examine spatiotemporal variations in mass over the GrIS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites for the January 2003-December 2012 period using a "mascon" approach, with a nominal spatial resolution of 100 km, and a temporal resolution of 10 days. We compare GRACE-estimated mass variations against those simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM and the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). In order to properly compare spatial and temporal variations in GrIS mass from GRACE with model outputs, we find it necessary to spatially and temporally filter model results to reproduce leakage of mass inherent in the GRACE solution. Both modeled and satellite-derived results point to a decline (of -178.9 ± 4.4 and -239.4 ± 7.7 Gt yr-1 respectively) in GrIS mass over the period examined, but the models appear to underestimate the rate of mass loss, especially in areas below 2000 m in elevation, where the majority of recent GrIS mass loss is occurring. On an ice-sheet-wide scale, the timing of the modeled seasonal cycle of cumulative mass (driven by summer mass loss) agrees with the GRACE-derived seasonal cycle, within limits of uncertainty from the GRACE solution. However, on sub-ice-sheet-wide scales, some areas exhibit significant differences in the timing of peaks in the annual cycle of mass change. At these scales, model biases, or processes not accounted for by models related
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.
2017-12-01
Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berger, Sophie; Drews, Reinhard; Helm, Veit; Sun, Sainan; Pattyn, Frank
2017-11-01
Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB), i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique - based on satellite observations - to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation). Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from -14.7 to 8.6 m a-1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km) lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a-1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks). However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing) toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite-based BMB values remain uncertain, we have
Autonomous Ice Mass Balance Buoys for Seasonal Sea Ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Whitlock, J. D.; Planck, C.; Perovich, D. K.; Parno, J. T.; Elder, B. C.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.
2017-12-01
The ice mass-balance represents the integration of all surface and ocean heat fluxes and attributing the impact of these forcing fluxes on the ice cover can be accomplished by increasing temporal and spatial measurements. Mass balance information can be used to understand the ongoing changes in the Arctic sea ice cover and to improve predictions of future ice conditions. Thinner seasonal ice in the Arctic necessitates the deployment of Autonomous Ice Mass Balance buoys (IMB's) capable of long-term, in situ data collection in both ice and open ocean. Seasonal IMB's (SIMB's) are free floating IMB's that allow data collection in thick ice, thin ice, during times of transition, and even open water. The newest generation of SIMB aims to increase the number of reliable IMB's in the Arctic by leveraging inexpensive commercial-grade instrumentation when combined with specially developed monitoring hardware. Monitoring tasks are handled by a custom, expandable data logger that provides low-cost flexibility for integrating a large range of instrumentation. The SIMB features ultrasonic sensors for direct measurement of both snow depth and ice thickness and a digital temperature chain (DTC) for temperature measurements every 2cm through both snow and ice. Air temperature and pressure, along with GPS data complete the Arctic picture. Additionally, the new SIMB is more compact to maximize deployment opportunities from multiple types of platforms.
Towards Quantification of Glacier Dynamic Ice Loss through Passive Seismic Monitoring
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Köhler, A.; Nuth, C.; Weidle, C.; Schweitzer, J.; Kohler, J.; Buscaino, G.
2015-12-01
Global glaciers and ice caps loose mass through calving, while existing models are currently not equipped to realistically predict dynamic ice loss. This is mainly because long-term continuous calving records, that would help to better understand fine scale processes and key climatic-dynamic feedbacks between calving, climate, terminus evolution and marine conditions, do not exist. Combined passive seismic/acoustic strategies are the only technique able to capture rapid calving events continuously, independent of daylight or meteorological conditions. We have produced such a continuous calving record for Kronebreen, a tidewater glacier in Svalbard, using data from permanent seismic stations between 2001 and 2014. However, currently no method has been established in cryo-seismology to quantify the calving ice loss directly from seismic data. Independent calibration data is required to derive 1) a realistic estimation of the dynamic ice loss unobserved due to seismic noise and 2) a robust scaling of seismic calving signals to ice volumes. Here, we analyze the seismic calving record at Kronebreen and independent calving data in a first attempt to quantify ice loss directly from seismic records. We make use of a) calving flux data with weekly to monthly resolution obtained from satellite remote sensing and GPS data between 2007 and 2013, and b) direct, visual calving observations in two weeks in 2009 and 2010. Furthermore, the magnitude-scaling property of seismic calving events is analyzed. We derive and discuss an empirical relation between seismic calving events and calving flux which for the first time allows to estimate a time series of calving volumes more than one decade back in time. Improving our model requires to incorporate more precise, high-resolution calibration data. A new field campaign will combine innovative, multi-disciplinary monitoring techniques to measure calving ice volumes and dynamic ice-ocean interactions simultaneously with terrestrial laser
Antarctic Mass Loss from GRACE from Space- and Time-Resolved Modeling with Slepian Functions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Simons, F. J.; Harig, C.
2013-12-01
The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Antarctica is of particular interest since most of the mass loss has occurred in West Antarctica, however updated glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models and recent mass gains in East Antarctica have reduced the continent-wide integrated decadal trend of mass loss. Here we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change using Slepian localization functions. With a Slepian basis specifically for Antarctica, the basis functions maximize their energy on the continent and we can project the geopotential fields into a sparse set of orthogonal coefficients. By fitting polynomial functions to the limited basis coefficients we maximize signal-to-noise levels and need not perform smoothing or destriping filters common to other approaches. In addition we determine an empirical noise covariance matrix from the GRACE data to estimate the uncertainty of mass estimation. When applied to large ice sheets, as in our own recent Greenland work, this technique is able to resolve both the overall continental integrated mass trend, as well as the spatial distribution of the mass changes over time. Using CSR-RL05 GRACE data between Jan. 2003 and Jan 2013, we estimate the regional accelerations in mass change for several sub-regions and examine how the spatial pattern of mass has changed. The Amundsen Sea coast of West Antarctica has experienced a large acceleration in mass loss (-26 Gt/yr^2). While mass loss is concentrated near Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, it has also increased along the coast further towards the Ross ice shelf.
Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harig, C.
2017-12-01
The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.
Cordilleran Ice Sheet mass loss preceded climate reversals near the Pleistocene Termination
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Menounos, B.; Goehring, B. M.; Osborn, G.; Margold, M.; Ward, B.; Bond, J.; Clarke, G. K. C.; Clague, J. J.; Lakeman, T.; Koch, J.; Caffee, M. W.; Gosse, J.; Stroeven, A. P.; Seguinot, J.; Heyman, J.
2017-11-01
The Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) once covered an area comparable to that of Greenland. Previous geologic evidence and numerical models indicate that the ice sheet covered much of westernmost Canada as late as 12.5 thousand years ago (ka). New data indicate that substantial areas throughout westernmost Canada were ice free prior to 12.5 ka and some as early as 14.0 ka, with implications for climate dynamics and the timing of meltwater discharge to the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Early Bølling-Allerød warmth halved the mass of the CIS in as little as 500 years, causing 2.5 to 3.0 meters of sea-level rise. Dozens of cirque and valley glaciers, along with the southern margin of the CIS, advanced into recently deglaciated regions during the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas.
The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Evans, S. G.
2006-12-01
Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of
Improving Estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance with Satellite Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Briggs, K.
2016-12-01
Mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet have been accelerating over recent years (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). This acceleration has predominantly been linked to increasing rates of negative surface mass balance, and in particular, increasing ice surface melt rates (e.g. McMillan et al., 2016; Velicogna et al., 2014). At the ice sheet scale, SMB is assessed using SMB model outputs, which in addition to enabling understanding of the origin of mass balance signals, are required as ancillary data in mass balance assessments from altimetry and the mass budget method. Due to the importance of SMB for mass balance over Greenland and the sensitivity of mass balance assessments to SMB model outputs, high accuracy of these models is crucial. A critical limiting factor in SMB modeling is however, a lack of in-situ data that is required for model constraint and evaluation. Such data is limited in time and space due to inherent logistical and financial constraints. Remote sensing datasets, being spatially extensive and relatively densely sampled in both space and time, do not suffer such constraints. Here, we show satellite observations of Greenland SMB. McMillan, M., Leeson, A., Shepherd, A., Briggs, K., Armitage, T. W.K., Hogg, A., Kuipers Munneke, P., van den Broeke, M., Noël, B., van de Berg, W., Ligtenberg, S., Horwath, M., Groh, A. , Muir, A. and Gilbert, L. 2016. A high resolution record of Greenland Mass Balance. Geophysical Research Letters. 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL069666 Velicogna, I., Sutterley, T. C. and van den Broeke, M. R. 2014. Regional acceleration in ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica using GRACE time-variable gravity data. Geophysical Research Letters. 41, 8130-8137, doi:10.1002/2014GL061052
Ice Mass Changes in the Russian High Arctic from Repeat High Resolution Topography.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Willis, Michael; Zheng, Whyjay; Pritchard, Matthew; Melkonian, Andrew; Morin, Paul; Porter, Claire; Howat, Ian; Noh, Myoung-Jong; Jeong, Seongsu
2016-04-01
We use a combination of ASTER and cartographically derived Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) supplemented with WorldView DEMs, the ArcticDEM and ICESat lidar returns to produce a time-series of ice changes occurring in the Russian High Arctic between the mid-20th century and the present. Glaciers on the western, Barents Sea coast of Novaya Zemlya are in a state of general retreat and thinning, while those on the eastern, Kara Sea coast are retreating at a slower rate. Franz Josef Land has a complicated pattern of thinning and thickening, although almost all the thinning is associated with rapid outlet glaciers feeding ice shelves. Severnaya Zemlya is also thinning in a complicated manner. A very rapid surging glacier is transferring mass into the ocean from the western periphery of the Vavilov Ice Cap on October Revolution Island, while glaciers feeding the former Matusevich Ice Shelf continue to thin at rates that are faster than those observed during the operational period of ICESat, between 2003 and 2009. Passive microwave studies indicate the total number of melt days is increasing in the Russian Arctic, although much of the melt may refreeze within the firn. It is likely that ice dynamic changes will drive mass loss for the immediate future. The sub-marine basins beneath several of the ice caps in the region suggest the possibility that mass loss rates may accelerate in the future.
Bedrock displacements in Greenland manifest ice mass variations, climate cycles and climate change
Bevis, Michael; Wahr, John; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Madsen, Finn Bo; Brown, Abel; Willis, Michael; Kendrick, Eric; Knudsen, Per; Box, Jason E.; van Dam, Tonie; Caccamise, Dana J.; Johns, Bjorn; Nylen, Thomas; Abbott, Robin; White, Seth; Miner, Jeremy; Forsberg, Rene; Zhou, Hao; Wang, Jian; Wilson, Terry; Bromwich, David; Francis, Olivier
2012-01-01
The Greenland GPS Network (GNET) uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure the displacement of bedrock exposed near the margins of the Greenland ice sheet. The entire network is uplifting in response to past and present-day changes in ice mass. Crustal displacement is largely accounted for by an annual oscillation superimposed on a sustained trend. The oscillation is driven by earth’s elastic response to seasonal variations in ice mass and air mass (i.e., atmospheric pressure). Observed vertical velocities are higher and often much higher than predicted rates of postglacial rebound (PGR), implying that uplift is usually dominated by the solid earth’s instantaneous elastic response to contemporary losses in ice mass rather than PGR. Superimposed on longer-term trends, an anomalous ‘pulse’ of uplift accumulated at many GNET stations during an approximate six-month period in 2010. This anomalous uplift is spatially correlated with the 2010 melting day anomaly. PMID:22786931
Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.
2005-01-01
Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.
Solitary Waves of Ice Loss Detected in Greenland Crustal Motion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.
2017-12-01
The annual cycle and secular trend of Greenland mass loading are well recorded in measurements of solid Earth deformation. While bedrock vertical displacements are in phase with loading as inferred from space observations, horizontal motions have received almost no attention. The horizontal bedrock displacements can potentially track the spatiotemporal detail of mass changes with great fidelity. Our analysis of Greenland crustal motion data reveals that a significant excitation of horizontal amplitudes occurs during the intense Greenland melting. A suite of space geodetic observations and climate reanalysis data cannot explain these large horizontal displacements. We discover that solitary seasonal waves of substantial mass transport traveled through Rink Glacier in 2010 and 2012. We deduce that intense summer melting enhanced either basal lubrication or shear softening, or both, causing the glacier to thin dynamically. The newly routed upstream sublglacial water was likely to be both retarded and inefficient, thus providing a causal mechanism for the prolonged ice transport to continue well into the winter months. As the climate continues to produce increasingly warmer spring and summer, amplified seasonal waves of mass transport may become ever more present in years of future observations. Increased frequency of amplified seasonal mass transport may ultimately strengthen the Greenland's dynamic ice mass loss, a component of the balance that will have important ramifications for sea level rise. This animation shows a solitary wave passing through Rink Glacier, Greenland, in 2012, recorded by the motion of a GPS station (circle with arrow). Darker blue colors within the flow indicate mass loss, red colors show mass gain. The star marks the center of the wave. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles
2015-01-01
A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.
Thickening and Thinning of Antarctic Ice Shelves and Tongues and Mass Balance Estimates
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Giovinetto, Mario; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui
2011-01-01
Previous analysis of elevation changes for 1992 to 2002 obtained from measurements by radar altimeters on ERS-l and 2 showed that the shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and along the coast of West Antarctica (WA), including the eastern part of the Ross Ice Shelf, were mostly thinning and losing mass whereas the Ronne Ice shelf also in WA was mostly thickening. The estimated total mass loss for the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining WA and the AP was 95 Gt/a. In contrast, the floating ice shelves and ice tongues from ice draining East Antarctica (EA), including the Filchner, Fimbul, Amery, and Western Ross, were mostly thickening with a total estimated mass gain of 142 Gt/a. Data from ICESat laser altimetry for 2003-2008 gives new surface elevation changes (dH/dt) with some similar values for the earlier and latter periods, including -27.6 and -26.9 cm a-Ion the West Getz ice shelf and -42.4 and - 27.2 cm/a on the East Getz ice shelf, and some values that indicate more thinning in the latter period, including -17.9 and -36.2 cm/a on the Larsen C ice shelf, -35.5 and -76.0 cm/a on the Pine Island Glacier floating, -60.5 and -125.7 .cm/a on the Smith Glacier floating, and -34.4 and -108.9 cm/a on the Thwaites Glacier floating. Maps of measured dH/dt and estimated thickness change are produced along with mass change estimates for 2003 - 2008.
Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Luthcke, Scott
2010-01-01
Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Inamdar, P.; Ambinakudige, S.
2016-12-01
Californian icefields are natural basins of fresh water. They provide irrigation water to the farms in the central valley. We analyzed the ice mass loss rates, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) in Sacramento and San Joaquin basins in California. The digital elevation models from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to calculate ice mass loss rate between the years 2002 and 2015. Additionally, Landsat TIR data were used to extract the land surface temperature. Data from local weather stations were analyzed to understand the spatiotemporal trends in air temperature. The results showed an overall mass recession of -0.8 ± 0.7 m w.e.a-1. We also noticed an about 60% loss in areal extent of the glaciers in the study basins between 2000 and 2015. Local climatic factors, along with the global climate patterns might have influenced the negative trends in the ice mass loss. Overall, there was an increase in the air temperature by 0.07± 0.02 °C in the central valley between 2000 and 2015. Furthermore, LST increased by 0.34 ± 0.4 °C and 0.55± 0.1 °C in the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Our preliminary results show the decrease in area and mass of ice mass in the basins, and changing agricultural practices in the valley.
Quantifying ice cliff contribution to debris-covered glacier mass balance from multiple sensors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brun, Fanny; Wagnon, Patrick; Berthier, Etienne; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; Immerzeel, Walter; Shea, Joseph; Vincent, Christian
2017-04-01
Ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers have been recognized as a hot spot for glacier melt. Ice cliffs are steep (even sometimes overhanging) and fast evolving surface features, which make them challenging to monitor. We surveyed the topography of Changri Nup Glacier (Nepalese Himalayas, Everest region) in November 2015 and 2016 using multiple sensors: terrestrial photogrammetry, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, Pléiades stereo images and ASTER stereo images. We derived 3D point clouds and digital elevation models (DEMs) following a Structure-from-Motion (SfM) workflow for the first two sets of data to monitor surface elevation changes and calculate the associated volume loss. We derived only DEMs for the two last data sets. The derived DEMs had resolutions ranging from < 5 cm to 30 m. The derived point clouds and DEMs are used to quantify the ice melt of the cliffs at different scales. The very high resolution SfM point clouds, together with the surface velocity field, will be used to calculate the volume losses of 14 individual cliffs, depending on their size, aspect or the presence of supra glacial lake. Then we will extend this analysis to the whole glacier to quantify the contribution of ice cliff melt to the overall glacier mass balance, calculated with the UAV and Pléiades DEMs. This research will provide important tools to evaluate the role of ice cliffs in regional mass loss.
Breaking Off of Large Ice Masses From Hanging Glaciers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pralong, A.; Funk, M.
In order to reduce damage to settlements or other installations (roads, railway, etc) and avoid loss of life, a forecast of the final failure time of ice masses is required. At present, the most promising approach for such a prediction is based on the regularity by which certain large ice masses accelerate prior to the instant of collapse. The lim- itation of this forecast lies in short-term irregularities and in the difficulties to obtain sufficiently accurate data. A better physical understanding of the breaking off process is required, in order to improve the forecasting method. Previous analyze has shown that a stepwise crack extension coupling with a viscous flow leads to the observed acceleration function. We propose another approach by considering a local damage evolution law (gener- alized Kachanow's law) coupled with Glen's flow law to simulate the spatial evolu- tion of damage in polycristalline ice, using a finite element computational model. The present study focuses on the transition from a diffuse to a localised damage reparti- tion occurring during the damage evolution. The influence of inhomogeneous initial conditions (inhomogeneity of the mechanical properties of ice, damage inhomogene- ity) and inhomogeneous boundary conditions on the damage repartition are especially investigated.
SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.
Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E
2015-07-10
Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Goldberg, Leo
1987-01-01
Observational evidence for mass loss from cool stars is reviewed. Spectra line profiles are used for the derivation of mass-loss rates with the aid of the equation of continuity. This equation implies steady mass loss with spherical symmetry. Data from binary stars, Mira variables, and red giants in globular clusters are examined. Silicate emission is discussed as a useful indicator of mass loss in the middle infrared spectra. The use of thermal millimeter-wave radiation, Very Large Array (VLA) measurement of radio emission, and OH/IR masers are discussed as a tool for mass loss measurement. Evidence for nonsteady mass loss is also reviewed.
Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.
2011-12-01
In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.
Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.
Rignot, Eric
2006-07-15
The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 degrees C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.
Geodetic mass balance measurements on debris and clean-ice tropical glaciers in Ecuador
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
La Frenierre, J.; Decker, C. R.; Jordan, E.; Wigmore, O.; Hodge, B. E.; Niederriter, C.; Michels, A.
2017-12-01
Glaciers are recognized as highly sensitive indicators of climate change in high altitude, low latitude environments. In the tropical Andes, various analyses of glacier surface area change have helped illuminate the manifestation of climate change in this region, however, information about actual glacier mass balance behavior is much more limited given the relatively small glaciers, difficult access, poor weather, and/or limited local resources common here. Several new technologies, including aerial and terrestrial LIDAR and structure-from-motion photogrammetry using small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), make mass balance measurements using geodetic approaches increasingly feasible in remote mountain locations, which can both further our understanding of changing climatic conditions, and improve our ability to evaluate the downstream hydrologic impacts of ice loss. At Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, these new technologies, combined with a unique, 5-meter resolution digital elevation model derived from 1997 aerial imagery, make possible an analysis of the magnitude and spatial patterns of mass balance behavior over the past two decades. Here, we evaluate ice loss between 1997 and 2017 at the tongues of two adjacent glaciers, one debris-covered and detached from its accumulation area (Reschreiter Glacier), and one debris-free and intact (Hans Meyer Glacier). Additionally, we incorporate data from 2012 and 2013 terrestrial LIDAR surveys to evaluate the behavior of the Reschreiter at a finer temporal resolution. We find that on the Hans Meyer, the mean surface deflation rate since 1997 at the present-day tongue has been nearly 3 m yr-1, while on the lower-elevation Reschreiter, the mean deflation rate has been approximately 1 m yr-1. However, the processes by which debris-covered ice becomes exposed results in highly heterogeneous patterns of ice loss, with some areas experiencing surface deflation rates approaching 15 m yr-1 when energy absorption is unimpeded.
Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sauber, J.
2006-01-01
In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slobbe, D. C.; Ditmar, P.; Lindenbergh, R. C.
2009-01-01
The focus of this paper is on the quantification of ongoing mass and volume changes over the Greenland ice sheet. For that purpose, we used elevation changes derived from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission and monthly variations of the Earth's gravity field as observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Based on a stand alone processing scheme of ICESat data, the most probable estimate of the mass change rate from 2003 February to 2007 April equals -139 +/- 68 Gtonyr-1. Here, we used a density of 600+/-300 kgm-3 to convert the estimated elevation change rate in the region above 2000m into a mass change rate. For the region below 2000m, we used a density of 900+/-300 kgm-3. Based on GRACE gravity models from half 2002 to half 2007 as processed by CNES, CSR, DEOS and GFZ, the estimated mass change rate for the whole of Greenland ranges between -128 and -218Gtonyr-1. Most GRACE solutions show much stronger mass losses as obtained with ICESat, which might be related to a local undersampling of the mass loss by ICESat and uncertainties in the used snow/ice densities. To solve the problem of uncertainties in the snow and ice densities, two independent joint inversion concepts are proposed to profit from both GRACE and ICESat observations simultaneously. The first concept, developed to reduce the uncertainty of the mass change rate, estimates this rate in combination with an effective snow/ice density. However, it turns out that the uncertainties are not reduced, which is probably caused by the unrealistic assumption that the effective density is constant in space and time. The second concept is designed to convert GRACE and ICESat data into two totally new products: variations of ice volume and variations of snow volume separately. Such an approach is expected to lead to new insights in ongoing mass change processes over the Greenland ice sheet. Our results show for different GRACE solutions a snow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rott, Helmut; Abdel Jaber, Wael; Wuite, Jan; Scheiblauer, Stefan; Floricioiu, Dana; Melchior van Wessem, Jan; Nagler, Thomas; Miranda, Nuno; van den Broeke, Michiel R.
2018-04-01
We analysed volume change and mass balance of outlet glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula over the periods 2011 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016, using high-resolution topographic data from the bistatic interferometric radar satellite mission TanDEM-X. Complementary to the geodetic method that applies DEM differencing, we computed the net mass balance of the main outlet glaciers using the mass budget method, accounting for the difference between the surface mass balance (SMB) and the discharge of ice into an ocean or ice shelf. The SMB values are based on output of the regional climate model RACMO version 2.3p2. To study glacier flow and retrieve ice discharge we generated time series of ice velocity from data from different satellite radar sensors, with radar images of the satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X as the main source. The study area comprises tributaries to the Larsen A, Larsen Inlet and Prince Gustav Channel embayments (region A), the glaciers calving into the Larsen B embayment (region B) and the glaciers draining into the remnant part of the Larsen B ice shelf in Scar Inlet (region C). The glaciers of region A, where the buttressing ice shelf disintegrated in 1995, and of region B (ice shelf break-up in 2002) show continuing losses in ice mass, with significant reduction of losses after 2013. The mass balance numbers for the grounded glacier area of region A are -3.98 ± 0.33 Gt a-1 from 2011 to 2013 and -2.38 ± 0.18 Gt a-1 from 2013 to 2016. The corresponding numbers for region B are -5.75 ± 0.45 and -2.32 ± 0.25 Gt a-1. The mass balance in region C during the two periods was slightly negative, at -0.54 ± 0.38 Gt a-1 and -0.58 ± 0.25 Gt a-1. The main share in the overall mass losses of the region was contributed by two glaciers: Drygalski Glacier contributing 61 % to the mass deficit of region A, and Hektoria and Green glaciers accounting for 67 % to the mass deficit of region B. Hektoria and Green glaciers accelerated significantly in 2010
Glacier ice mass fluctuations and fault instability in tectonically active Southern Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sauber, Jeanne M.; Molnia, Bruce F.
2004-07-01
Across the plate boundary zone in south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. For the coastal region between the Bering and Malaspina Glaciers, the average ice mass thickness changes between 1995 and 2000 range from 1 to 5 m/year. These ice changes caused solid Earth displacements in our study region with predicted values of -10 to 50 mm in the vertical and predicted horizontal displacements of 0-10 mm at variable orientations. Relative to stable North America, observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/year to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from approximately 0 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12 mm/year further inland. The ice mass changes between 1995 and 2000 resulted in discernible changes in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measured station positions of one site (ISLE) located adjacent to the Bagley Ice Valley and at one site, DON, located south of the Bering Glacier terminus. In addition to modifying the surface displacements rates, we evaluated the influence ice changes during the Bering glacier surge cycle had on the background seismic rate. We found an increase in the number of earthquakes ( ML≥2.5) and seismic rate associated with ice thinning and a decrease in the number of earthquakes and seismic rate associated with ice thickening. These results support the hypothesis that ice mass changes can modulate the background seismic rate. During the last century, wastage of the coastal glaciers in the Icy Bay and Malaspina region indicates thinning of hundreds of meters and in areas of major retreat, maximum losses of ice thickness approaching 1 km. Between the 1899 Yakataga and Yakutat earthquakes ( Mw=8.1, 8.1) and prior to the 1979 St. Elias earthquake ( Ms=7.2), the plate interface below Icy Bay was locked and tectonic strain accumulated. We used estimated ice mass
Glacier ice mass fluctuations and fault instability in tectonically active Southern Alaska
Sauber, J.M.; Molnia, B.F.
2004-01-01
Across the plate boundary zone in south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. For the coastal region between the Bering and Malaspina Glaciers, the average ice mass thickness changes between 1995 and 2000 range from 1 to 5 m/year. These ice changes caused solid Earth displacements in our study region with predicted values of -10 to 50 mm in the vertical and predicted horizontal displacements of 0-10 mm at variable orientations. Relative to stable North America, observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/year to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from approximately 0 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12 mm/year further inland. The ice mass changes between 1995 and 2000 resulted in discernible changes in the Global Positioning System (GPS) measured station positions of one site (ISLE) located adjacent to the Bagley Ice Valley and at one site, DON, located south of the Bering Glacier terminus. In addition to modifying the surface displacements rates, we evaluated the influence ice changes during the Bering glacier surge cycle had on the background seismic rate. We found an increase in the number of earthquakes (ML???2.5) and seismic rate associated with ice thinning and a decrease in the number of earthquakes and seismic rate associated with ice thickening. These results support the hypothesis that ice mass changes can modulate the background seismic rate. During the last century, wastage of the coastal glaciers in the Icy Bay and Malaspina region indicates thinning of hundreds of meters and in areas of major retreat, maximum losses of ice thickness approaching 1 km. Between the 1899 Yakataga and Yakutat earthquakes (Mw=8.1, 8.1) and prior to the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M s=7.2), the plate interface below Icy Bay was locked and tectonic strain accumulated. We used estimated ice mass
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, Nat; Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick
2017-12-01
Ice-shelf-like floating extensions at the termini of Greenland glaciers are undergoing rapid changes with potential implications for the stability of upstream glaciers and the ice sheet as a whole. While submarine melting is recognized as a major contributor to mass loss, the spatial distribution of submarine melting and its contribution to the total mass balance of these floating extensions is incompletely known and understood. Here, we use high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery collected between 2011 and 2015 to infer the magnitude and spatial variability of melt rates under Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues - Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier, 79N), Ryder Glacier (RG), and Petermann Glacier (PG). Submarine melt rates under the ice tongues vary considerably, exceeding 50 m a-1 near the grounding zone and decaying rapidly downstream. Channels, likely originating from upstream subglacial channels, give rise to large melt variations across the ice tongues. We compare the total melt rates to the influx of ice to the ice tongue to assess their contribution to the current mass balance. At Petermann Glacier and Ryder Glacier, we find that the combined submarine and aerial melt approximately balances the ice flux from the grounded ice sheet. At Nioghalvfjerdsbræ the total melt flux (14.2 ± 0.96 km3 a-1 w.e., water equivalent) exceeds the inflow of ice (10.2 ± 0.59 km3 a-1 w.e.), indicating present thinning of the ice tongue.
Ancient Yedoma carbon loss: primed by ice wedge thaw?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dowdy, K. L.; Vonk, J. E.; Mann, P. J.; Zimov, N.; Bulygina, E. B.; Davydova, A.; Spencer, R. G.; Holmes, R. M.
2012-12-01
Northeast Siberian permafrost is dominated by frozen Yedoma deposits containing ca. 500 Gt of carbon, nearly a quarter of northern permafrost organic carbon (OC). Yedoma deposits are Pleistocene-age alluvial and/or aeolian accumulations characterized by high ice wedge content (~50%), making them particularly vulnerable to a warming climate and to surface collapse upon thaw. Dissolved OC in streams originating primarily from Yedoma has been shown to be highly biolabile, relative to waters containing more modern OC. The cause of this biolability, however, remains speculative. Here we investigate the influence of ice wedge input upon the bioavailability of Yedoma within streams from as a potential cause of Yedoma carbon biolability upon release into the Kolyma River from the thaw-eroding river exposures of Duvannyi Yar, NE Siberia. We measured biolability on (1) ice wedge, Kolyma, and Yedoma leachate controls; (2) ice wedge and Kolyma plus Yedoma OC (8 g/L); and (3) varying ratios of ice wedge water to Kolyma river water. Biolability assays were conducted using both 5-day BOD (biological oxygen demand) and 11-day BDOC (biodegradable dissolved organic carbon) incubations. We found that ancient DOC in Yedoma soil leachate alone was highly biolabile with losses of 52±0.1% C over a 5-day BOD incubation. Similarly, DOC contained in pure ice wedge water was found to be biolabile, losing 21±0% C during a 5-day BOD incubation. Increased ice wedge contributions led to higher overall C losses in identical Yedoma soil leachates, with 8.9±0.6% losses of Yedoma C with 100% ice wedge water, 7.1±1% (50% ice wedge/ 50% Kolyma) and 5±0.3% with 100% Kolyma River water. We discuss potential mechanisms for the increased loss of ancient C using associated measurements of nutrient availability, carbon quality (CDOM/FDOM) and extracellular enzyme activity rates. Our initial results indicate that ice wedge meltwater forming Yedoma streams makes Yedoma OC more bioavailable than it would
Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.
Barnes, D K A
2015-09-21
Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Measurements of sea ice mass redistribution during ice deformation event in Arctic winter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Itkin, P.; Spreen, G.; King, J.; Rösel, A.; Skourup, H.; Munk Hvidegaard, S.; Wilkinson, J.; Oikkonen, A.; Granskog, M. A.; Gerland, S.
2016-12-01
Sea-ice growth during high winter is governed by ice dynamics. The highest growth rates are found in leads that open under divergent conditions, where exposure to the cold atmosphere promotes thermodynamic growth. Additionally ice thickens dynamically, where convergence causes rafting and ridging. We present a local study of sea-ice growth and mass redistribution between two consecutive airborne measurements, on 19 and 24 April 2015, during the N-ICE2015 expedition in the area north of Svalbard. Between the two overflights an ice deformation event was observed. Airborne laser scanner (ALS) measurements revisited the same sea-ice area of approximately 3x3 km. By identifying the sea surface within the ALS measurements as a reference the sea ice plus snow freeboard was obtained with a spatial resolution of 5 m. By assuming isostatic equilibrium of level floes, the freeboard heights can be converted to ice thickness. The snow depth is estimated from in-situ measurements. Sea ice thickness measurements were made in the same area as the ALS measurements by electromagnetic sounding from a helicopter (HEM), and with a ground-based device (EM31), which allows for cross-validation of the sea-ice thickness estimated from all 3 procedures. Comparison of the ALS snow freeboard distributions between the first and second overflight shows a decrease in the thin ice classes and an increase of the thick ice classes. While there was no observable snowfall and a very low sea-ice growth of older level ice during this period, an autonomous buoy array deployed in the surroundings of the area measured by the ALS shows first divergence followed by convergence associated with shear. To quantify and link the sea ice deformation with the associated sea-ice thickness change and mass redistribution we identify over 100 virtual buoys in the ALS data from both overflights. We triangulate the area between the buoys and calculate the strain rates and freeboard change for each individual triangle
Time Series of Greenland Ice-Sheet Elevations and Mass Changes from ICESat 2003-2009
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zwally, H. J.; Li, J.; Medley, B.; Robbins, J. W.; Yi, D.
2015-12-01
We follow the repeat-track analysis (RTA) of ICESat surface-elevation data by a second stage that adjusts the measured elevations on repeat passes to the reference track taking into account the cross-track slope (αc), in order to construct elevation time series. αc are obtained from RTA simultaneous solutions for αc, dh/dt, and h0. The height measurements on repeat tracks are initially interpolated to uniform along-track reference points (every 172 m) and times (ti) giving the h(xi,ti) used in the RTA solutions. The xi are the cross-track spacings from the reference track and i is the laser campaign index. The adjusted elevation measurements at the along-track reference points are hr(ti) = h(xi,ti) - xi tan(αc) - h0. The hr(ti) time series are averaged over 50 km cells creating H(ti) series and further averaged (weighted by cell area) to H(t) time series over drainage systems (DS), elevation bands, regions, and the entire ice sheet. Temperature-driven changes in the rate of firn compaction, CT(t), are calculated for 50 km cells with our firn-compaction model giving I(t) = H(t) - CT(t) - B(t) where B(t) is the vertical motion of the bedrock. During 2003 to 2009, the average dCT(t)/dt in the accumulation zone is -5 cm/yr, which amounts to a -75 km3/yr correction to ice volume change estimates. The I(t) are especially useful for studying the seasonal cycle of mass gains and losses and interannual variations. The H(t) for the ablation zone are fitted with a multi-variate function with a linear component describing the upward component of ice flow plus winter accumulation (fall through spring) and a portion of a sine function describing the superimposed summer melting. During fall to spring the H(t) indicate that the upward motion of the ice flow is at a rate of 1 m/yr, giving an annual mass gain of 180 Gt/yr in the ablation zone. The summer loss from surface melting in the high-melt summer of 2005 is 350 Gt/yr, giving a net surface loss of 170 Gt/yr from the
Transient ice mass variations over Greenland detected by the combination of GPS and GRACE data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, B.; Liu, L.; Khan, S. A.; van Dam, T. M.; Zhang, E.
2017-12-01
Over the past decade, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been undergoing significant warming and ice mass loss. Such mass loss was not always a steady process but had substantial temporal and spatial variabilities. Here we apply multi-channel singular spectral analysis to crustal deformation time series measured at about 50 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations mounted on bedrock around the Greenland coast and mass changes inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to detect transient changes in ice mass balance over the GrIS. We detect two transient anomalies: one is a negative melting anomaly (Anomaly 1) that peaked around 2010; the other is a positive melting anomaly (Anomaly 2) that peaked between 2012 and 2013. The GRACE data show that both anomalies caused significant mass changes south of 74°N but negligible changes north of 74°N. Both anomalies caused the maximum mass change in southeast GrIS, followed by in west GrIS near Jakobshavn. Our results also show that the mass change caused by Anomaly 1 first reached the maximum in late 2009 in the southeast GrIS and then migrated to west GrIS. However, in Anomaly 2, the southeast GrIS was the last place that reached the maximum mass change in early 2013 and the west GrIS near Jakobshavn was the second latest place that reached the maximum mass change. Most of the GPS data show similar spatiotemporal patterns as those obtained from the GRACE data. However, some GPS time series show discrepancies in either space or time, because of data gaps and different sensitivities of mass loading change. Namely, loading deformation measured by GPS can be significantly affected by local dynamical mass changes, which, yet, has little impact on GRACE observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huybrechts, P.
2003-04-01
The evolution of continental ice sheets introduces a long time scale in the climate system. Large ice sheets have a memory of millenia, hence the present-day ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are still adjusting to climatic variations extending back to the last glacial period. This trend is separate from the direct response to mass-balance changes on decadal time scales and needs to be correctly accounted for when assessing current and future contributions to sea level. One way to obtain estimates of current ice mass changes is to model the past history of the ice sheets and their underlying beds over the glacial cycles. Such calculations assist to distinguish between the longer-term ice-dynamic evolution and short-term mass-balance changes when interpreting altimetry data, and are helpful to isolate the effects of postglacial rebound from gravity and altimetry trends. The presentation will discuss results obtained from 3-D thermomechanical ice-sheet/lithosphere/bedrock models applied to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The simulations are forced by time-dependent boundary conditions derived from sediment and ice core records and are constrained by geomorphological and glacial-geological data of past ice sheet and sea-level stands. Current simulations suggest that the Greenland ice sheet is close to balance, while the Antarctic ice sheet is still losing mass, mainly due to incomplete grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the LGM. The results indicate that altimetry trends are likely dominated by ice thickness changes but that the gravitational signal mainly reflects postglacial rebound.
Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992 - 2009
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.
2011-01-01
Published mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) lie between approximately +50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009, which span a range equivalent to 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar-altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (+28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. Although recent reports of large and accelerating rates of mass loss from GRACE=based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion. We find that the extrapolation used in the published IOM estimates for the 15 % of the periphery for which discharge velocities are not observed gives twice the rate of discharge per unit of associated ice-sheet area than the 85% faster-moving parts. Our calculations show that the published extrapolation overestimates the ice discharge by 282 Gt/yr compared to our assumption that the slower moving areas have 70% as much discharge per area as the faster moving parts. Also, published data on the time-series of discharge velocities and accumulation/precipitation do not support mass output increases or input decreases with time, respectively. Our modified IOM estimate, using the 70% discharge assumption and substituting input from a field-data compilation for input from an atmospheric model over 6% of area, gives a loss of only 13 Gt/year (versus 136 Gt/year) for the period around 2000. Two ERS-based estimates, our modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 to 2005 lie in a narrowed range of +27 to - 40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992-2001 is - 47 Gt
Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.
Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L
2016-02-18
The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nielsen, Karina; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Spada, Giorgio; Wahr, John; Bevis, Michael; Liu, Lin; van Dam, Tonie
2013-04-01
We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal surface displacements from 2006 to 2012 at four GPS sites located between ˜5 and ˜150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) in west Greenland. Horizontal displacements during 2006-2010 at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed toward north-west, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is located near the frontal portion of JI. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modeled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006, 2009, and 2010. However, horizontal displacements during 2010-2012 at KAGA and ILUL are directed more towards the west suggesting a change in the spatial distribution of the ice mass loss. In addition, we observe an increase in the uplift rate during 2010-2012 as compared to 2006-2010. The sudden change in vertical and horizontal displacements is due to enhanced melt-induced ice loss in 2010 and 2012.
Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert
2013-04-01
Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.
Effect of fjord geometry on Greenland mass loss in a warming climate (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nick, F. M.; Vieli, A.; Andersen, M. L.; Joughin, I. R.
2013-12-01
Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge through the narrow outlet glaciers. The complicated behaviour of narrow outlet glaciers has not yet been fully captured by the ice-sheet models used to predict Greenland's contribution to future sea level. Here we try to quantify the future dynamic contribution of four major marine terminating outlet glaciers to sea-level rise. We use a glacier flow line model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini to simulate behavior of Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq, Petermann and Jakobshavn Isbræ. The contribution from these glaciers to sea-level rise is largely (80%) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. Model results show that the shape of the glacier and its fjord can alter how the glacier will respond to a changing climate. Dynamic losses are mainly related to channel geometry and occur when an ice front retreats from a basal high through an overdeepening. Subsequent decelerations in retreat and mass loss mostly coincide with a decrease in water depth as the glacier retreats or re-advances to a new or previous bathymetric high. In some cases, channel narrowing may temporarily slowdown the terminus retreat even when the terminus is located on an upward bed slope.
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.
Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne
2016-11-11
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.
2017-12-01
It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss
Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bolch, T.; Pieczonka, T.; Benn, D. I.
2011-04-01
Mass loss of Himalayan glaciers has wide-ranging consequences such as changing runoff distribution, sea level rise and an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The assessment of the regional and global impact of glacier changes in the Himalaya is, however, hampered by a lack of mass balance data for most of the range. Multi-temporal digital terrain models (DTMs) allow glacier mass balance to be calculated. Here, we present a time series of mass changes for ten glaciers covering an area of about 50 km2 south and west of Mt. Everest, Nepal, using stereo Corona spy imagery (years 1962 and 1970), aerial images and recent high resolution satellite data (Cartosat-1). This is the longest time series of mass changes in the Himalaya. We reveal that the glaciers have been significantly losing mass since at least 1970, despite thick debris cover. The specific mass loss for 1970-2007 is 0.32 ± 0.08 m w.e. a-1, however, not higher than the global average. Comparisons of the recent DTMs with earlier time periods indicate an accelerated mass loss. This is, however, hardly statistically significant due to high uncertainty, especially of the lower resolution ASTER DTM. The characteristics of surface lowering can be explained by spatial variations of glacier velocity, the thickness of the debris-cover, and ice melt due to exposed ice cliffs and ponds.
Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss
Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle
2016-01-01
Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.
Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.
Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle
2016-08-17
Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).
Trends in ice sheet mass balance, 1992 to 2017
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; Smith, B.; Velicogna, I.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Rignot, E. J.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Krinner, G.; Joughin, I. R.; Nowicki, S.; Payne, A. J.; Scambos, T.; Schlegel, N.; Moyano, G.; Konrad, H.
2017-12-01
The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a community effort, jointly supported by ESA and NASA, that aims to provide a consensus estimate of ice sheet mass balance from satellite gravimetry, altimetry and mass budget assessments, on an annual basis. The project has five experiment groups, one for each of the satellite techniques and two others to analyse surface mass balance (SMB) and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The basic premise for the exercise is that individual ice sheet mass balance datasets are generated by project participants using common spatial and temporal domains to allow meaningful inter-comparison, and this controlled comparison in turn supports aggregation of the individual datasets over their full period. Participation is open to the full community, and the quality and consistency of submissions is regulated through a series of data standards and documentation requirements. The second phase of IMBIE commenced in 2015, with participant data submitted in 2016 and a combined estimate due for public release in 2017. Data from 48 participant groups were submitted to one of the three satellite mass balance technique groups or to the ancillary dataset groups. The individual mass balance estimates and ancillary datasets have been compared and combined within the respective groups. Following this, estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from the individual techniques were then compared and combined. The result is single estimates of ice sheet mass balance for Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula. The participants, methodology and results of the exercise will be presented in this paper.
Summer 2007 and 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Context: OUTLOOK 2008
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.
2008-12-01
The Arctic is changing faster than the publication cycle for new information. In response, the SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs initiated an OUTLOOK 2008 to provide broad-based communication and assessment within the arctic science community on the causes of rapid summer sea ice loss, synthesizing information from Arctic observing networks and model simulations. The question for summer 2008 was whether the previous loss of multi-year sea ice and delay in sea ice formation in autumn 2007 would still allow sufficient winter growth of sea ice thickness to last through the summer 2008, potentially allowing for recovery from the 2007 minimum. The answer is no; summer 2008 was a second sequential year of extremely low minimum sea ice extent. To organize OUTLOOK 2008, respondents were asked in May, June and July to provide a rationale and semi-quantitative assessment of arctic sea ice extent anticipated for September 2008. OUTLOOK 2008 supplemented information maintained by ice centers, universities and other data providers. Using a range of methods, all of the approximately 20 groups responded that summer sea ice would not return to climatological mean conditions, with a median response near the 2007 extent. The range of responses depended on the relative weight given to "initial conditions," e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 would be as supportive for ice loss as in 2007. Initial conditions turned out to be a primary factor for summer 2008, with implications for continued sea ice loss in future years. OUTLOOK 2008 highlighted aspects of the observation and modeling efforts that require further attention such as interpretation of summer microwave signatures, in situ buoy measurements, and data assimilation in models. We appreciate the contributions from respondents and reviewers who made OUTLOOK 2008 a success.
Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell
2017-04-01
In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them
Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.
2016-12-01
Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.
Glacier mass loss. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula.
Wouters, B; Martin-Español, A; Helm, V; Flament, T; van Wessem, J M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Bamber, J L
2015-05-22
Growing evidence has demonstrated the importance of ice shelf buttressing on the inland grounded ice, especially if it is resting on bedrock below sea level. Much of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula satisfies this condition and also possesses a bed slope that deepens inland. Such ice sheet geometry is potentially unstable. We use satellite altimetry and gravity observations to show that a major portion of the region has, since 2009, destabilized. Ice mass loss of the marine-terminating glaciers has rapidly accelerated from close to balance in the 2000s to a sustained rate of -56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica's contribution to rising sea level. The widespread, simultaneous nature of the acceleration, in the absence of a persistent atmospheric forcing, points to an oceanic driving mechanism. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.
2016-12-01
In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stearns, L. A.; Walker, B.; Pratt-Sitaula, B.
2015-12-01
GETSI (Geodesy Tools for Societal Issues) is an NSF-funded partnership program between UNAVCO, Indiana University, Mt. San Antonio College, and the Science Education Resource Center (SERC). We present results from classroom testing and assessment of the GETSI Ice Mass and Sea Level Changes module that utilizes geodetic data to teach about ice sheet mass loss in introductory undergraduate courses. The module explores the interactions between global sea level rise, Greenland ice mass loss, and the response of the solid Earth. It brings together topics typically addressed in introductory Earth science courses (isostatic rebound, geologic measurements, and climate change) in a way that highlights the interconnectivity of the Earth system and the interpretation of geodetic data. The module was tested 3 times at 3 different institution types (R1 institution, comprehensive university, and community college), and formative and summative assessment data were obtained. We will provide an overview of the instructional materials, describe our teaching methods, and discuss how formative and summative assessment data assisted in revisions of the teaching materials and changes in our pedagogy during subsequent implementation of the module. We will also provide strategies for faculty who wish to incorporate the module into their curricula. Instructional materials, faculty and student resources, and implementation tips are freely available on the GETSI website.
A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance.
Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R; A, Geruo; Barletta, Valentina R; Bentley, Mike J; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H; Bromwich, David H; Forsberg, René; Galin, Natalia; Horwath, Martin; Jacobs, Stan; Joughin, Ian; King, Matt A; Lenaerts, Jan T M; Li, Jilu; Ligtenberg, Stefan R M; Luckman, Adrian; Luthcke, Scott B; McMillan, Malcolm; Meister, Rakia; Milne, Glenn; Mouginot, Jeremie; Muir, Alan; Nicolas, Julien P; Paden, John; Payne, Antony J; Pritchard, Hamish; Rignot, Eric; Rott, Helmut; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg; Scambos, Ted A; Scheuchl, Bernd; Schrama, Ernst J O; Smith, Ben; Sundal, Aud V; van Angelen, Jan H; van de Berg, Willem J; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Vaughan, David G; Velicogna, Isabella; Wahr, John; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Wingham, Duncan J; Yi, Donghui; Young, Duncan; Zwally, H Jay
2012-11-30
We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods--especially in Greenland and West Antarctica--and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, -65 ± 26, and -20 ± 14 gigatonnes year(-1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year(-1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.
2017-12-01
Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.
Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves
Liu, Yan; Moore, John C.; Cheng, Xiao; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; Liu, Hongxing; Wen, Jiahong; Hui, Fengming
2015-01-01
Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates. PMID:25733856
Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki
2014-09-02
Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less
Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.
Depoorter, M A; Bamber, J L; Griggs, J A; Lenaerts, J T M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Moholdt, G
2013-10-03
Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.
Monitoring southwest Greenland's ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise.
Mordret, Aurélien; Mikesell, T Dylan; Harig, Christopher; Lipovsky, Bradley P; Prieto, Germán A
2016-05-01
The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth's crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.
Empirical estimation of present-day Antarctic glacial isostatic adjustment and ice mass change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gunter, B. C.; Didova, O.; Riva, R. E. M.; Ligtenberg, S. R. M.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; King, M. A.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Urban, T.
2014-04-01
This study explores an approach that simultaneously estimates Antarctic mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) through the combination of satellite gravity and altimetry data sets. The results improve upon previous efforts by incorporating a firn densification model to account for firn compaction and surface processes as well as reprocessed data sets over a slightly longer period of time. A range of different Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity models were evaluated and a new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) surface height trend map computed using an overlapping footprint approach. When the GIA models created from the combination approach were compared to in situ GPS ground station displacements, the vertical rates estimated showed consistently better agreement than recent conventional GIA models. The new empirically derived GIA rates suggest the presence of strong uplift in the Amundsen Sea sector in West Antarctica (WA) and the Philippi/Denman sectors, as well as subsidence in large parts of East Antarctica (EA). The total GIA-related mass change estimates for the entire Antarctic ice sheet ranged from 53 to 103 Gt yr-1, depending on the GRACE solution used, with an estimated uncertainty of ±40 Gt yr-1. Over the time frame February 2003-October 2009, the corresponding ice mass change showed an average value of -100 ± 44 Gt yr-1 (EA: 5 ± 38, WA: -105 ± 22), consistent with other recent estimates in the literature, with regional mass loss mostly concentrated in WA. The refined approach presented in this study shows the contribution that such data combinations can make towards improving estimates of present-day GIA and ice mass change, particularly with respect to determining more reliable uncertainties.
Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.
2013-12-01
The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.
Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph
2015-01-01
Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, Andrew; Ivins, Erik R.; Geruo, A.; Barletta, Valentia R.; Bentley, Mike J.; Bettadpur, Srinivas; Briggs, Kate H.; Bromwich, David H.; Forsberg, Rene; Galin, Natalia;
2012-01-01
We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods-especially in Greenland and West Antarctica-and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by -142 plus or minus 49, +14 plus or minus 43, -65 plus or minus 26, and -20 plus or minus 14 gigatonnes year(sup -1), respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 plus or minus 0.20 millimeter year(sup -1) to the rate of global sea-level rise.
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice.
Eisenman, I; Wettlaufer, J S
2009-01-06
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.
The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.
2013-09-01
General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.
Convergence on the Prediction of Ice Particle Mass and Projected Area in Ice Clouds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, D. L.
2013-12-01
Ice particle mass- and area-dimensional power law (henceforth m-D and A-D) relationships are building-blocks for formulating microphysical processes and optical properties in cloud and climate models, and they are critical for ice cloud remote sensing algorithms, affecting the retrieval accuracy. They can be estimated by (1) directly measuring the sizes, masses and areas of individual ice particles at ground-level and (2) using aircraft probes to simultaneously measure the ice water content (IWC) and ice particle size distribution. A third indirect method is to use observations from method 1 to develop an m-A relationship representing mean conditions in ice clouds. Owing to a tighter correlation (relative to m-D data), this m-A relationship can be used to estimate m from aircraft probe measurements of A. This has the advantage of estimating m at small sizes, down to 10 μm using the 2D-Sterio probe. In this way, 2D-S measurements of maximum dimension D can be related to corresponding estimates of m to develop ice cloud type and temperature dependent m-D expressions. However, these expressions are no longer linear in log-log space, but are slowly varying curves covering most of the size range of natural ice particles. This work compares all three of the above methods and demonstrates close agreement between them. Regarding (1), 4869 ice particles and corresponding melted hemispheres were measured during a field campaign to obtain D and m. Selecting only those unrimed habits that formed between -20°C and -40°C, the mean mass values for selected size intervals are within 35% of the corresponding masses predicted by the Method 3 curve based on a similar temperature range. Moreover, the most recent m-D expression based on Method 2 differs by no more than 50% with the m-D curve from Method 3. Method 3 appears to be the most accurate over the observed ice particle size range (10-4000 μm). An m-D/A-D scheme was developed by which self-consistent m-D and A-D power laws
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Talpe, Matthieu J.; Nerem, R. Steven; Forootan, Ehsan; Schmidt, Michael; Lemoine, Frank G.; Enderlin, Ellyn M.; Landerer, Felix W.
2017-01-01
We construct long-term time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass change from satellite gravity measurements. A statistical reconstruction approach is developed based on a principal component analysis (PCA) to combine high-resolution spatial modes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the gravity information from conventional satellite tracking data. Uncertainties of this reconstruction are rigorously assessed; they include temporal limitations for short GRACE measurements, spatial limitations for the low-resolution conventional tracking data measurements, and limitations of the estimated statistical relationships between low- and high-degree potential coefficients reflected in the PCA modes. Trends of mass variations in Greenland and Antarctica are assessed against a number of previous studies. The resulting time series for Greenland show a higher rate of mass loss than other methods before 2000, while the Antarctic ice sheet appears heavily influenced by interannual variations.
Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.
Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A
2010-12-16
On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout
Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence
Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.
2010-01-01
On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao
2018-03-01
The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.
Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
vanderVeen, Cornelius
2003-01-01
The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Li, Jun; Zwally, H. Jay
2011-01-01
Changes in ice-sheet surface elevation are caused by a combination of ice-dynamic imbalance, ablation, temporal variations in accumulation rate, firn compaction and underlying bedrock motion. Thus, deriving the rate of ice-sheet mass change from measured surface elevation change requires information on the rate of firn compaction and bedrock motion, which do not involve changes in mass, and requires an appropriate firn density to associate with elevation changes induced by recent accumulation rate variability. We use a 25 year record of surface temperature and a parameterization for accumulation change as a function of temperature to drive a firn compaction model. We apply this formulation to ICESat measurements of surface elevation change at three locations on the Greenland ice sheet in order to separate the accumulation-driven changes from the ice-dynamic/ablation-driven changes, and thus to derive the corresponding mass change. Our calculated densities for the accumulation-driven changes range from 410 to 610 kg/cu m, which along with 900 kg/cu m for the dynamic/ablation-driven changes gives average densities ranging from 680 to 790 kg/cu m. We show that using an average (or "effective") density to convert elevation change to mass change is not valid where the accumulation and the dynamic elevation changes are of opposite sign.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ivins, E. R.; Wahr, J. M.; Schrama, E. J.; Milne, G. A.; Barletta, V.; Horwath, M.; Whitehouse, P.
2012-12-01
In preparation for the Inter-govermental Panel on Climate Change: Assessment Report 5 (IPCC AR5), ESA and NASA have formed a committee of experts to perform a formal set of comparative experiments concerning space observations of ice sheet mass balance. This project began in August of 2011 and has now concluded with a report submitted for Science (Shepherd et al., 2012). The focus of the work conducted is to re-evaluate scientific reports on the mass balance of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). The most serious discrepancies have been reported for the AIS, amounting to as much as 0.9 mm/yr in discrepant sea level contribution. A direct method of determining the AIS is by space gravimetry. However, for this method to contribute to our understanding of sea level change, we require knowledge of present-day non-elastic vertical movements of bedrock in Antarctica. Quantifying the uncertainty and bias caused by lack of observational control on models of regional glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), was a major focus for our experiments. This regional process is the most problematic error source for GRACE-determinations of ice mass balance in Antarctica. While GIA likely dominates some large vertical motions in Antarctica that are now observed with GPS (Thomas et al., 2011, GRL), interpretations still require models. The reported uncertainty for space gravimetric (GRACE) based sea level sourcing is roughly 0.20 to 0.35 mm/yr. The uncertainty is also part of the error budget for mass balances derived from altimetry measurements, though at a much lower level. Analysis of the GRACE time series using CSR RL04 (2003.0-2010.10) for AIS mass balance reveals a small trend of order +1 to -24 Gt/yr without a GIA correction. Three periods were selected over which to perform inter-comparisons (see Table). One class of GIA models, that relies primarily on far field sea level reconstructions (e.g. ICE-5G), provide a GIA correction that places AIS mass imbalance (
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.
2017-12-01
The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.
Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.
2015-07-01
Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.
Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry 1992 to 2001
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Brenner, Anita C.; Cornejo, Helen; Giovinetto, Mario; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui
2003-01-01
A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.
2016-12-01
The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.
Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps
Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.
2011-01-01
Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.
Global mountain snow and ice loss driven by dust and black carbon radiative forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Painter, T. H.
2014-12-01
Changes in mountain snow and glaciers have been our strongest indicators of the effects of changing climate. Earlier melt of snow and losses of glacier mass have perturbed regional water cycling, regional climate, and ecosystem dynamics, and contributed strongly to sea level rise. Recent studies however have revealed that in some regions, the reduction of albedo by light absorbing impurities in snow and ice such as dust and black carbon can be distinctly more powerful than regional warming at melting snow and ice. In the Rocky Mountains, dust deposition has increased 5 to 7 fold in the last 150 years, leading to ~3 weeks earlier loss of snow cover from forced melt. In absolute terms, in some years dust radiative forcing there can shorten snow cover duration by nearly two months. Remote sensing retrievals are beginning to reveal powerful dust and black carbon radiative forcing in the Hindu Kush through Himalaya. In light of recent ice cores that show pronounced increases in loading of dust and BC during the Anthropocene, these forcings may have contributed far more to glacier retreat than previously thought. For example, we have shown that the paradoxical end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps beginning around 1850 (when glaciers began to retreat but temperatures continued to decline and precipitation was unchanged) very likely was driven by the massive increases in deposition to snow and ice of black carbon from industrialization in surrounding nations. A more robust understanding of changes in mountain snow and ice during the Anthropocene requires that we move past simplistic treatments (e.g. temperature-index modeling) to energy balance approaches that assess changes in the individual forcings such as the most powerful component for melt - net solar radiation. Remote sensing retrievals from imaging spectrometers and multispectral sensors are giving us more powerful insights into the time-space variation of snow and ice albedo.
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
Eisenman, I.; Wettlaufer, J. S.
2009-01-01
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. PMID:19109440
Radar Interferometry Studies of the Mass Balance of Polar Ice Sheets
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rignot, Eric (Editor)
1999-01-01
The objectives of this work are to determine the current state of mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Our approach combines different techniques, which include satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry (InSAR), radar and laser altimetry, radar ice sounding, and finite-element modeling. In Greenland, we found that 3.5 times more ice flows out of the northern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet than previously accounted for. The discrepancy between current and past estimates is explained by extensive basal melting of the glacier floating sections in the proximity of the grounding line where the glacier detaches from its bed and becomes afloat in the ocean. The inferred basal melt rates are very large, which means that the glaciers are very sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Currently, it appears that the northern Greenland glaciers discharge more ice than is being accumulated in the deep interior, and hence are thinning. Studies of temporal changes in grounding line position using InSAR confirm the state of retreat of northern glaciers and suggest that thinning is concentrated at the lower elevations. Ongoing work along the coast of East Greenland reveals an even larger mass deficit for eastern Greenland glaciers, with thinning affecting the deep interior of the ice sheet. In Antarctica, we found that glaciers flowing into a large ice shelf system, such as the Ronne Ice Shelf in the Weddell Sea, exhibit an ice discharge in remarkable agreement with mass accumulation in the interior, and the glacier grounding line positions do not migrate with time. Glaciers flowing rapidly into the Amudsen Sea, unrestrained by a major ice shelf, are in contrast discharging more ice than required to maintain a state of mass balance and are thinning quite rapidly near the coast. The grounding line of Pine Island glacier (see diagram) retreated 5 km in 4 years, which corresponds to a glacier thinning rate of 3.5 m/yr. Mass imbalance is even more negative
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grima, C.; Koch, I.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Soderlund, K. M.; Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Fitzsimons, S.
2017-12-01
The McMurdo ice shelves (northern and southern MIS), adjacent to the eponymous station and the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, are known for large gradients in surface snow accumulation and snow/ice impurities. Marine ice accretion and melting are important contributors to MIS's mass balance. Due to erosive winds, the southern MIS (SMIS) shows a locally negative surface mass balance. Thus, marine ice once accreted at the ice shelf base crops out at the surface. However, the exact processes that exert primary control on SMIS mass balance have remained elusive. Radar statistical reconnaissance (RSR) is a recent technique that has been used to characterize the surface properties of the Earth's cryosphere, Mars, and Titan from the stochastic character of energy scattered by the surface. Here, we apply RSR to map the surface density and roughness of the SMIS and extend the technique to derive the basal reflectance and scattering coefficients of the ice-ocean interface. We use an airborne radar survey grid acquired over the SMIS in the 2014-2015 austral summer by the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics with the High Capability Radar Sounder (HiCARS2; 60-MHz center frequency and 15-MHz bandwidth). The RSR-derived snow density values and patterns agree with directly -measured ice shelf surface accumulation rates. We also compare the composition of SMIS ice surface samples to test the ability of RSR to discriminate ices with varying dielectric properties (e.g., marine versus meteoric ice) and hypothesize relationships between the RSR-derived basal reflectance/scattered coefficients and accretion or melting at the ice-ocean interface. This improved knowledge of air-ice and ice-ocean boundaries provides a new perspective on the processes governing SMIS surface and basal mass balance.
Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.
2017-08-01
Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.
Permafrost - Relation between ice content and dielectric losses at 100 K
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Alvarez, R.
1973-01-01
The dielectric response of permafrost at 100 K and vacuums of around 10 ntorr is analyzed, varying its percent ice content from 1 to 18.6. The distributions obtained correspond to dielectric relaxations of the Cole-Cole type, with maximum losses occurring in the 30- to 600-Hz frequency range. The logarithms of such maxima depend linearly on the permafrost ice content, two regions of linear variation being defined above and below 3.6% ice content. Such relations point out the feasibility of determining ice content in permafrost by electromagnetic means.
Sea Ice Mass Reconciliation Exercise (SIMRE) for altimetry derived sea ice thickness data sets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Tsamados, M.; Kwok, R.; Kurtz, N. T.; Rinne, E. J.; Uotila, P.; Stroeve, J.
2017-12-01
Satellite altimetry is the primary remote sensing data source for retrieval of Arctic sea-ice thickness. Observational data sets are available from current and previous missions, namely ESA's Envisat and CryoSat as well as NASA ICESat. In addition, freeboard results have been published from the earlier ESA ERS missions and candidates for new data products are the Sentinel-3 constellation, the CNES AltiKa mission and NASA laser altimeter successor ICESat-2. With all the different aspects of sensor type and orbit configuration, all missions have unique properties. In addition, thickness retrieval algorithms have evolved over time and data centers have developed different strategies. These strategies may vary in choice of auxiliary data sets, algorithm parts and product resolution and masking. The Sea Ice Mass Reconciliation Exercise (SIMRE) is a project by the sea-ice radar altimetry community to bridge the challenges of comparing data sets across missions and algorithms. The ESA Arctic+ research program facilitates this project with the objective to collect existing data sets and to derive a reconciled estimate of Arctic sea ice mass balance. Starting with CryoSat-2 products, we compare results from different data centers (UCL, AWI, NASA JPL & NASA GSFC) at full resolution along selected orbits with independent ice thickness estimates. Three regions representative of first-year ice, multiyear ice and mixed ice conditions are used to compare the difference in thickness and thickness change between products over the seasonal cycle. We present first results and provide an outline for the further development of SIMRE activities. The methodology for comparing data sets is designed to be extendible and the project is open to contributions by interested groups. Model results of sea ice thickness will be added in a later phase of the project to extend the scope of SIMRE beyond EO products.
Contribution of Deformation to Sea Ice Mass Balance: A Case Study From an N-ICE2015 Storm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Itkin, Polona; Spreen, Gunnar; Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Skourup, Henriette; Wilkinson, Jeremy; Gerland, Sebastian; Granskog, Mats A.
2018-01-01
The fastest and most efficient process of gaining sea ice volume is through the mechanical redistribution of mass as a consequence of deformation events. During the ice growth season divergent motion produces leads where new ice grows thermodynamically, while convergent motion fractures the ice and either piles the resultant ice blocks into ridges or rafts one floe under the other. Here we present an exceptionally detailed airborne data set from a 9 km2 area of first year and second year ice in the Transpolar Drift north of Svalbard that allowed us to estimate the redistribution of mass from an observed deformation event. To achieve this level of detail we analyzed changes in sea ice freeboard acquired from two airborne laser scanner surveys just before and right after a deformation event brought on by a passing low-pressure system. A linear regression model based on divergence during this storm can explain 64% of freeboard variability. Over the survey region we estimated that about 1.3% of level sea ice volume was pressed together into deformed ice and the new ice formed in leads in a week after the deformation event would increase the sea ice volume by 0.5%. As the region is impacted by about 15 storms each winter, a simple linear extrapolation would result in about 7% volume increase and 20% deformed ice fraction at the end of the season.
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass balance products from satellite gravimetry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Horwath, Martin; Groh, Andreas; Horvath, Alexander; Forsberg, René; Meister, Rakia; Barletta, Valentina R.; Shepherd, Andrew
2017-04-01
Because of their important role in the Earth's climate system, ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has identified both the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) as Essential Climate Variables (ECV). Since respondents of a user survey indicated that the ice sheet mass balance is one of the most important ECV data products needed to better understand climate change, the AIS_cci and the GIS_cci project provide Gravimetric Mass Balance (GMB) products based on satellite gravimetry data. The GMB products are derived from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) monthly solutions of release ITSG-Grace2016 produced at TU Graz. GMB basin products (i.e. time series of monthly mass changes for the entire ice sheets and selected drainage basins) and GMB gridded products (e.g. mass balance estimates with a formal resolution of about 50km, covering the entire ice sheets) are generated for the period from 2002 until present. The first GMB product was released in mid 2016. Here we present an extended and updated version of the ESA CCI GMB products, which are freely available through data portals hosted by the projects (https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/ais_gmb, http://products.esa-icesheets-cci.org/products/downloadlist/GMB). Since the initial product release, the applied processing strategies have been improved in order to further reduce GRACE errors and to enhance the separation of signals super-imposed to the ice mass changes. While a regional integration approach is used by the AIS_cci project, the GMB products of the GIS_cci project are derived using a point mass inversion. The differences between both approaches are investigated through the example of the GIS, where an alternative GMB product was generated using the regional integration approach implemented by the AIS_cci. Finally, we present the latest mass balance estimates for both ice sheets as well as their corresponding contributions to global sea level rise.
Arctic sea ice loss and recent extreme cold winter in Eurasia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide
2014-05-01
Extreme cold winter over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to winter season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme cold winter over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in winter and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haubner, Konstanze; Box, Jason E.; Schlegel, Nicole J.; Larour, Eric Y.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Solgaard, Anne M.; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Larsen, Signe H.; Rignot, Eric; Dupont, Todd K.; Kjær, Kurt H.
2018-04-01
Tidewater glacier velocity and mass balance are known to be highly responsive to terminus position change. Yet it remains challenging for ice flow models to reproduce observed ice margin changes. Here, using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; Larour et al. 2012), we simulate the ice velocity and thickness changes of Upernavik Isstrøm (north-western Greenland) by prescribing a collection of 27 observed terminus positions spanning 164 years (1849-2012). The simulation shows increased ice velocity during the 1930s, the late 1970s and between 1995 and 2012 when terminus retreat was observed along with negative surface mass balance anomalies. Three distinct mass balance states are evident in the reconstruction: (1849-1932) with near zero mass balance, (1932-1992) with ice mass loss dominated by ice dynamical flow, and (1998-2012), when increased retreat and negative surface mass balance anomalies led to mass loss that was twice that of any earlier period. Over the multi-decadal simulation, mass loss was dominated by thinning and acceleration responsible for 70 % of the total mass loss induced by prescribed change in terminus position. The remaining 30 % of the total ice mass loss resulted directly from prescribed terminus retreat and decreasing surface mass balance. Although the method can not explain the cause of glacier retreat, it enables the reconstruction of ice flow and geometry during 1849-2012. Given annual or seasonal observed terminus front positions, this method could be a useful tool for evaluating simulations investigating the effect of calving laws.
Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying
2016-03-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Surface mass balance of Greenland mountain glaciers and ice caps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Benson, R. J.; Box, J. E.; Bromwich, D. H.; Wahr, J. M.
2009-12-01
Mountain glaciers and ice caps contribute roughly half of eustatic sea-level rise. Greenland has thousands of small mountain glaciers and several ice caps > 1000 sq. km that have not been included in previous mass balance calculations. To include small glaciers and ice caps in our study, we use Polar WRF, a next-generation regional climate data assimilation model is run at grid resolution less than 10 km. WRF provides surface mass balance data at sufficiently high resolution to resolve not only the narrow ice sheet ablation zone, but provides information useful in downscaling melt and accumulation rates on mountain glaciers and ice caps. In this study, we refine Polar WRF to simulate a realistic surface energy budget. Surface melting is calculated in-line from surface energy budget closure. Blowing snow sublimation is computed in-line. Melt water re-freeze is calculated using a revised scheme. Our results are compared with NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and associated error is calculated on a regional and local scale with validation from automated weather stations (AWS), snow pits and ice core data from various regions along the Greenland ice sheet.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nias, I. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Payne, A. J.
2018-04-01
High-resolution ice flow modeling requires bedrock elevation and ice thickness data, consistent with one another and with modeled physics. Previous studies have shown that gridded ice thickness products that rely on standard interpolation techniques (such as Bedmap2) can be inconsistent with the conservation of mass, given observed velocity, surface elevation change, and surface mass balance, for example, near the grounding line of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. Using the BISICLES ice flow model, we compare results of simulations using both Bedmap2 bedrock and thickness data, and a new interpolation method that respects mass conservation. We find that simulations using the new geometry result in higher sea level contribution than Bedmap2 and reveal decadal-scale trends in the ice stream dynamics. We test the impact of several sliding laws and find that it is at least as important to accurately represent the bedrock and initial ice thickness as the choice of sliding law.
Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.
2013-12-01
The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods
Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huss, Matthias; Hock, Regine
2018-01-01
Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1-4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (`peak water') is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season.
Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points.
Wadhams, Peter
2012-02-01
We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3-4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km(2). Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a 'tipping point' in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.
Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev
2017-04-01
Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a
Inland thinning on the Greenland ice sheet controlled by outlet glacier geometry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Felikson, Denis; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Catania, Ginny A.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel; Stearns, Leigh A.; Shroyer, Emily L.; Sutherland, David A.; Nash, Jonathan D.
2017-04-01
Greenland’s contribution to future sea-level rise remains uncertain and a wide range of upper and lower bounds has been proposed. These predictions depend strongly on how mass loss--which is focused at the termini of marine-terminating outlet glaciers--can penetrate inland to the ice-sheet interior. Previous studies have shown that, at regional scales, Greenland ice sheet mass loss is correlated with atmospheric and oceanic warming. However, mass loss within individual outlet glacier catchments exhibits unexplained heterogeneity, hindering our ability to project ice-sheet response to future environmental forcing. Using digital elevation model differencing, we spatially resolve the dynamic portion of surface elevation change from 1985 to present within 16 outlet glacier catchments in West Greenland, where significant heterogeneity in ice loss exists. We show that the up-glacier extent of thinning and, thus, mass loss, is limited by glacier geometry. We find that 94% of the total dynamic loss occurs between the terminus and the location where the down-glacier advective speed of a kinematic wave of thinning is at least three times larger than its diffusive speed. This empirical threshold enables the identification of glaciers that are not currently thinning but are most susceptible to future thinning in the coming decades.
Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.
Glacier Ice Mass Fluctuations and Fault Instability in Tectonically Active Southern Alaska
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
SauberRosenberg, Jeanne M.; Molnia, Bruce F.
2003-01-01
Across southern Alaska the northwest directed subduction of the Pacific plate is accompanied by accretion of the Yakutat terrane to continental Alaska. This has led to high tectonic strain rates and dramatic topographic relief of more than 5000 meters within 15 km of the Gulf of Alaska coast. The glaciers of this area are extensive and include large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. The large glacier ice mass changes perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. We estimated surface displacements and stresses associated with ice mass fluctuations and tectonic loading by examining GPS geodetic observations and numerical model predictions. Although the glacial fluctuations perturb the tectonic stress field, especially at shallow depths, the largest contribution to ongoing crustal deformation is horizontal tectonic strain due to plate convergence. Tectonic forces are thus the primary force responsible for major earthquakes. However, for geodetic sites located < 10-20 km from major ice mass fluctuations, the changes of the solid Earth due to ice loading and unloading are an important aspect of interpreting geodetic results. The ice changes associated with Bering Glacier s most recent surge cycle are large enough to cause discernible surface displacements. Additionally, ice mass fluctuations associated with the surge cycle can modify the short-term seismicity rates in a local region. For the thrust faulting environment of the study region a large decrease in ice load may cause an increase in seismic rate in a region close to failure whereas ice loading may inhibit thrust faulting.
Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.
2010-01-01
Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed
Mass Balance Changes and Ice Dynamics of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Laser Altimetry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Babonis, G. S.; Csatho, B.; Schenk, T.
2016-06-01
During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat) and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC) method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.
Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.
2018-03-01
Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.
Prediction of dry ice mass for firefighting robot actuation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ajala, M. T.; Khan, Md R.; Shafie, A. A.; Salami, MJE; Mohamad Nor, M. I.
2017-11-01
The limitation in the performance of electric actuated firefighting robots in high-temperature fire environment has led to research on the alternative propulsion system for the mobility of firefighting robots in such environment. Capitalizing on the limitations of these electric actuators we suggested a gas-actuated propulsion system in our earlier study. The propulsion system is made up of a pneumatic motor as the actuator (for the robot) and carbon dioxide gas (self-generated from dry ice) as the power source. To satisfy the consumption requirement (9cfm) of the motor for efficient actuation of the robot in the fire environment, the volume of carbon dioxide gas, as well as the corresponding mass of the dry ice that will produce the required volume for powering and actuation of the robot, must be determined. This article, therefore, presents the computational analysis to predict the volumetric requirement and the dry ice mass sufficient to power a carbon dioxide gas propelled autonomous firefighting robot in a high-temperature environment. The governing equation of the sublimation of dry ice to carbon dioxide is established. An operating time of 2105.53s and operating pressure ranges from 137.9kPa to 482.65kPa were achieved following the consumption rate of the motor. Thus, 8.85m3 is computed as the volume requirement of the CAFFR while the corresponding dry ice mass for the CAFFR actuation ranges from 21.67kg to 75.83kg depending on the operating pressure.
Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These
Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Q.
2016-12-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abdalati, W.
2005-12-01
One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khan, S. A.; Nielsen, K.; Wahr, J. M.; Bevis, M. G.; Liu, L.; Spada, G.; van Dam, T. M.
2012-12-01
We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal displacements from 2009-2011, at four GPS sites located between 5 and 150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI). The horizontal displacements at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed towards east-north-east, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is south-east of these sites. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modelled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006 to 2011. The agreement between the observed and modelled relative displacements is 0.8 mm or better, which suggests that the mass loss estimate of JI is well captured. In 2010, we observe a rapid increase in the uplift at all four sites. This uplift anomaly, defined as the deviation at 2010.75 from the 2006-2009.75 trend is estimated to 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm (KAGA), 9.3 +/- 2.2 mm (ILUL), 5.1 +/- 2.0 mm (QEQE), and 6.1 +/- 2.3 mm (AASI). The relative large anomalies at the sites QEQE and AASI, located ~150 km from the front of JI, suggests that the uplift anomalies are caused by a large wide-spread melt-induced ice loss. The relatively low uplift anomaly at KAGA, located only 5 km from the front, indicates that there has been a dramatic decrease in dynamic-induced ice loss near the front of JI. This is supported by elevation changes derived from ATM measurements between 2010 and 2011, where we observe an elevation increase in the flow direction of up to 10 m at the frontal part of JI.
Ice Slurry Ingestion Leads to a Lower Net Heat Loss during Exercise in the Heat.
Morris, Nathan B; Coombs, Geoff; Jay, Ollie
2016-01-01
To compare the reductions in evaporative heat loss from the skin (Esk) to internal heat loss (Hfluid) induced by ice slurry (ICE) ingestion relative to 37 °C fluid and the accompanying body temperature and local thermoeffector responses during exercise in warm, dry conditions (33.5 °C ± 1.4 °C; 23.7% ± 2.6% relative humidity [RH]). Nine men cycled at approximately 55% VO2peak for 75 min and ingested 3.2 mL · kg(-1) aliquots of 37 °C fluid or ICE after 15, 30, and 45 min of exercise. Metabolic heat production (M-W), rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk), whole-body sweat loss (WBSL), local sweat rate (LSR), and skin blood flow (SkBF) were measured throughout. Net heat loss (HLnet) and heat storage (S) were estimated using partitional calorimetry. Relative to the 37 °C trial, M-W was similar (P = 0.81) with ICE ingestion; however, the 200 ± 20 kJ greater Hfluid (P < 0.001) with ICE ingestion was overcompensated by a 381 ± 199-kJ lower Esk (P < 0.001). Net heat loss (HLnet) was consequently 131 ± 120 kJ lower (P = 0.01) and S was greater (P = 0.05) with ICE ingestion compared with 37 °C fluid ingestion. Concurrently, LSR and WBSL were lower by 0.16 ± 0.14 mg · min(-1) · cm(-2) (P < 0.01) and 191 ± 122 g (P < 0.001), respectively, and SkBF tended to be lower (P = 0.06) by 5.4%maxAU ± 13.4%maxAU in the ICE trial. Changes in Tre and Tsk were similar throughout exercise with ICE compared to 37 °C fluid ingestion. Relative to 37 °C, ICE ingestion caused disproportionately greater reductions in Esk relative to Hfluid, resulting in a lower HLnet and greater S. Mechanistically, LSR and possibly SkBF were suppressed independently of Tre or Tsk, reaffirming the concept of human abdominal thermoreception. From a heat balance perspective, recommendations for ICE ingestion during exercise in warm, dry conditions should be reconsidered.
Dual-sensor mapping of mass balance on Russia's northernmost ice caps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nikolskiy, D.; Malinnikov, V.; Sharov, A.; Ukolova, M.
2012-04-01
Mass balance of Russia's northernmost ice caps is poorly known and scarcely mapped. Thorough information about glacier fluctuations in the outer periphery of Russian shelf seas is both lacking and highly desired since it may constitute the relevant benchmark for judging and projecting climate change impacts in the entire Arctic. The present study is focussed on geodetic measurements and medium-scale mapping of the mass balance on a dozen insular ice caps, some large and some smaller, homogeneously situated along the Eurasian boundary of Central Arctic Basin. The study region extends for approx. 2.200 km from Victoria and Arthur islands in the west across Rudolph, Eva-Liv, Ushakova, Schmidt and Komsomolets islands in the north to Bennett and Henrietta islands in the east thereby comprising the most distant and least studied ice caps in the Russian Arctic. The situation of insular ice masses close to the edge of summer minimum sea ice proved helpful in analysing spatial asymmetry of glacier accumulation signal. The overall mapping of glacier elevation changes and quantification of mass balance characteristics in the study region was performed by comparing reference elevation models of study glaciers derived from Russian topographic maps 1:200,000 (CI = 20 or 40 m) representing the glacier state as in the 1950s-1960s with modern elevation data obtained from satellite radar interferometry and lidar altimetry. In total, 14 ERS and 4 TanDEM-X high-quality SAR interferograms of 1995/96 and 2011 were acquired, processed in the standard 2-pass DINSAR manner, geocoded, calibrated, mosaicked and interpreted using reference elevation models and co-located ICESat altimetry data of 2003-2010. The DINSAR analysis revealed the existence of fast-flowing outlet glaciers at Arthur, Rudolph, Eva-Liv and Bennett islands. The calculation of separate mass-balance components is complicated in this case because of generally unknown glacier velocities and ice discharge values for the mid-20
Mass loss from solar-type stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hartmann, L.
1985-01-01
The present picture of mass loss from solar-type (low-mass) stars is described, with special emphasis on winds from pre-main-sequence stars. Attention is given to winds from T Tauri stars and to angular momentum loss. Prospects are good for further advances in our understanding of the powerful mass loss observed from young stars; ultraviolet spectra obtainable with the Space Telescope should provide better estimates of mass loss rates and a clearer picture of physical conditions in the envelopes of these stars. To understand the mass ejection from old, slowly rotating main-sequence stars, we will have to study the sun.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schäfer, Martina; Möller, Marco; Zwinger, Thomas; Moore, John
2016-04-01
Using a coupled simulation set-up between a by statistical climate data forced and to ice-cap resolution downscaled mass balance model and an ice-dynamic model, we study coupling effects for the Vestfonna ice cap, Nordaustlandet, Svalbard, by analysing the impacts of different imposed coupling intervals on mass-balance and sea-level rise (SLR) projections. Based on a method to estimate errors introduced by different coupling schemes, we find that neglecting the topographic feedback in the coupling leads to underestimations of 10-20% in SLR projections on century time-scales in our model compared to full coupling (i.e., exchange of properties using smallest occurring time-step). Using the same method it also is shown that parametrising mass-balance adjustment for changes in topography using lapse rates is a - in computational terms - cost-effective reasonably accurate alternative applied to an ice-cap like Vestfonna. We test the forcing imposed by different emission pathways (RCP 2.4, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). For most of them, over the time-period explored (2000-2100), fast-flowing outlet glaciers decrease in impacting SLR due to their deceleration and reduced mass flux as they thin and retreat from the coast, hence detaching from the ocean and thereby losing their major mass drainage mechanism, i.e., calving.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.
2018-01-01
Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.
Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G
2018-01-28
Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.
Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.
2017-12-01
Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.
Is snow-ice now a major contributor to sea ice mass balance in the western Transpolar Drift region?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graham, R. M.; Merkouriadi, I.; Cheng, B.; Rösel, A.; Granskog, M. A.
2017-12-01
During the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) campaign, which took place in the first half of 2015 north of Svalbard, a deep winter snow pack (50 cm) on sea ice was observed, that was 50% thicker than earlier climatological studies suggested for this region. Moreover, a significant fraction of snow contributed to the total ice mass in second-year ice (SYI) (9% on average). Interestingly, very little snow (3% snow by mass) was present in first-year ice (FYI). The combination of sea ice thinning and increased precipitation north of Svalbard is expected to promote the formation of snow-ice. Here we use the 1-D snow/ice thermodynamic model HIGHTSI forced with reanalysis data, to show that for the case study of N-ICE2015, snow-ice would even form over SYI with an initial thickness of 2 m. In current conditions north of Svalbard, snow-ice is ubiquitous and contributes to the thickness growth up to 30%. This contribution is important, especially in the absence of any bottom thermodynamic growth due to the thick insulating snow cover. Growth of FYI north of Svalbard is mainly controlled by the timing of growth onset relative to snow precipitation events and cold spells. These usually short-lived conditions are largely determined by the frequency of storms entering the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean. In our case, a later freeze onset was favorable for FYI growth due to less snow accumulation in early autumn. This limited snow-ice formation but promoted bottom thermodynamic growth. We surmise these findings are related to a regional phenomenon in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, with frequent storm events which bring increasing amounts of precipitation in autumn and winter, and also affect the duration of cold temperatures required for ice growth in winter. We discuss the implications for the importance of snow-ice in the future Arctic, formerly believed to be non-existent in the central Arctic due to thick perennial ice.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martin-Espanol, Alba; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Clarke, Peter J.; Flament, Thomas; Helm, Veit; King, Matt A.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Petrie, Elizabeth; Remy, Frederique; Schon, Nana;
2016-01-01
We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic-corrected GPS data for the period 2003-2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time-invariant solution for glacio-isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003-2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rateof -84 +/- 22 Gt per yr, with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of -111 +/- 13 Gt per yr. West Antarctica is the largest contributor with -112 +/- 10 Gt per yr, mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of -28 +/- 7 Gt per yr and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 +/- 18 Gt per yr in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Visnjevic, Vjeran; Herman, Frédéric; Licul, Aleksandar
2016-04-01
With the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), about 20 000 years ago, ended the most recent long-lasting cold phase in Earth's history. We recently developed a model that describes large-scale erosion and its response to climate and dynamical changes with the application to the Alps for the LGM period. Here we will present an inverse approach we have recently developed to infer the LGM mass balance from known ice extent data, focusing on a glacier or ice cap. The ice flow model is developed using the shallow ice approximation and the developed codes are accelerated using GPUs capabilities. The mass balance field is the constrained variable defined by the balance rate β and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), where c is the cutoff value: b = max(βṡ(S(z) - ELA), c) We show that such a mass balance can be constrained from the observed past ice extent and ice thickness. We are also investigating several different geostatistical methods to constrain spatially variable mass balance, and derive uncertainties on each of the mass balance parameters.
Present-day Antarctic ice mass changes and crustal motion
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
James, Thomas S.; Ivins, Erik R.
1995-01-01
The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history protrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) Pa(dot)s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion (omega m(arrow dot)) and time-varying zonal gravity field.
Present-day Antarctic Ice Mass Changes and Crustal Motion
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
James, Thomas S.; Ivins, Erik R.
1995-01-01
The peak vertical velocities predicted by three realistic, but contrasting, present-day scenarios of Antarctic ice sheet mass balance are found to be of the order of several mm/a. One scenario predicts local uplift rates in excess of 5 mm/a. These rates are small compared to the peak Antarctic vertical velocities of the ICE-3G glacial rebound model, which are in excess of 20 mm/a. If the Holocene Antarctic deglaciation history portrayed in ICE-3G is realistic, and if regional upper mantle viscosity is not an order of magnitude below 10(exp 21) pa s, then a vast geographical region in West Antarctica is uplifting at a rate that could be detected by a future Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign. While present-day scenarios predict small vertical crustal velocities, their overall continent-ocean mass exchange is large enough to account for a substantial portion of the observed secular polar motion ((Omega)m(bar)) and time-varying zonal gravity field J(sub 1).
Non-basal dislocations should be accounted for in simulating ice mass flow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chauve, T.; Montagnat, M.; Piazolo, S.; Journaux, B.; Wheeler, J.; Barou, F.; Mainprice, D.; Tommasi, A.
2017-09-01
Prediction of ice mass flow and associated dynamics is pivotal at a time of climate change. Ice flow is dominantly accommodated by the motion of crystal defects - the dislocations. In the specific case of ice, their observation is not always accessible by means of the classical tools such as X-ray diffraction or transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Part of the dislocation population, the geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) can nevertheless be constrained using crystal orientation measurements via electron backscattering diffraction (EBSD) associated with appropriate analyses based on the Nye (1950) approach. The present study uses the Weighted Burgers Vectors, a reduced formulation of the Nye theory that enables the characterization of GNDs. Applied to ice, this method documents, for the first time, the presence of dislocations with non-basal [ c ] or < c + a > Burgers vectors. These [ c ] or < c + a > dislocations represent up to 35% of the GNDs observed in laboratory-deformed ice samples. Our findings offer a more complex and comprehensive picture of the key plasticity processes responsible for polycrystalline ice creep and provide better constraints on the constitutive mechanical laws implemented in ice sheet flow models used to predict the response of Earth ice masses to climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lei, Ruibo; Cheng, Bin; Heil, Petra; Vihma, Timo; Wang, Jia; Ji, Qing; Zhang, Zhanhai
2018-04-01
The seasonal evolution of sea ice mass balance between the Central Arctic and Fram Strait, as well as the underlying driving forces, remain largely unknown because of a lack of observations. In this study, two and three buoys were deployed in the Central Arctic during the summers of 2010 and 2012, respectively. It was established that basal ice growth commenced between mid-October and early December. Annual basal ice growth, ranging from 0.21 to 1.14 m, was determined mainly by initial ice thickness, air temperature, and oceanic heat flux during winter. An analytic thermodynamic model indicated that climate warming reduces the winter growth rate of thin ice more than for thick ice because of the weak thermal inertia of the former. Oceanic heat flux during the freezing season was 2-4 W m-2, which accounted for 18-31% of the basal ice energy balance. We identified two mechanisms that modified the oceanic heat flux, i.e., solar energy absorbed by the upper ocean during summer, and interaction with warm waters south of Fram Strait; the latter resulted in basal ice melt, even in winter. In summer 2010, ice loss in the Central Arctic was considerable, which led to increased oceanic heat flux into winter and delayed ice growth. The Transpolar Drift Stream was relatively weak in summer 2013. This reduced sea ice advection out of the Arctic Ocean, and it restrained ice melt because of the cool atmospheric conditions, weakened albedo feedback, and relatively small oceanic heat flux in the north.
Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dutton, A.
2015-12-01
Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels
Land motion due to 20th century mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kjeldsen, K. K.; Khan, S. A.
2017-12-01
Quantifying the contribution from ice sheets and glaciers to past sea level change is of great value for understanding sea level projections into the 21st century. However, quantifying and understanding past changes are equally important, in particular understanding the impact in the near-field where the signal is highest. We assess the impact of 20th century mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet on land motion using results from Kjeldsen et al, 2015. These results suggest that the ice sheet on average lost a minimum of 75 Gt/yr, but also show that the mass balance was highly spatial- and temporal variable, and moreover that on a centennial time scale changes were driven by a decreasing surface mass balance. Based on preliminary results we discuss land motion during the 20th century due to mass balance changes and the driving components surface mass balance and ice dynamics.
Infrared Observations of Hot Gas and Cold Ice Toward the Low Mass Protostar Elias 29
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Boogert, A. C. A.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.; Ceccarelli, C.; Boonman, A. M. S.; vanDishoeck, E. F.; Keane, J. V.; Whittet, D. C. B.; deGraauw, T.
2000-01-01
We have obtained the full 1-200 micrometer spectrum of the low luminosity (36 solar luminosity Class I protostar Elias 29 in the rho Ophiuchi molecular cloud. It provides a unique opportunity to study the origin and evolution of interstellar ice and the interrelationship of interstellar ice and hot core gases around low mass protostars. We see abundant hot CO and H2O gas, as well as the absorption bands of CO, CO2, H2O and "6.85 micrometer" ices. We compare the abundances and physical conditions of the gas and ices toward Elias 29 with the conditions around several well studied luminous, high mass protostars. The high gas temperature and gas/solid ratios resemble those of relatively evolved high mass objects (e.g. GL 2591). However, none of the ice band profiles shows evidence for significant thermal processing, and in this respect Elias 29 resembles the least evolved luminous protostars, such as NGC 7538 : IRS9. Thus we conclude that the heating of the envelope of the low mass object Elias 29 is qualitatively different from that of high mass protostars. This is possibly related to a different density gradient of the envelope or shielding of the ices in a circumstellar disk. This result is important for our understanding of the evolution of interstellar ices, and their relation to cometary ices.
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.
Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K
2012-12-13
Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Surface water mass composition changes captured by cores of Arctic land-fast sea ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, I. J.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.; Van Hale, R.; Gough, A. J.; Fukamachi, Y.; Jones, J.
2016-04-01
In the Arctic, land-fast sea ice growth can be influenced by fresher water from rivers and residual summer melt. This paper examines a method to reconstruct changes in water masses using oxygen isotope measurements of sea ice cores. To determine changes in sea water isotope composition over the course of the ice growth period, the output of a sea ice thermodynamic model (driven with reanalysis data, observations of snow depth, and freeze-up dates) is used along with sea ice oxygen isotope measurements and an isotopic fractionation model. Direct measurements of sea ice growth rates are used to validate the output of the sea ice growth model. It is shown that for sea ice formed during the 2011/2012 ice growth season at Barrow, Alaska, large changes in isotopic composition of the ocean waters were captured by the sea ice isotopic composition. Salinity anomalies in the ocean were also tracked by moored instruments. These data indicate episodic advection of meteoric water, having both lower salinity and lower oxygen isotopic composition, during the winter sea ice growth season. Such advection of meteoric water during winter is surprising, as no surface meltwater and no local river discharge should be occurring at this time of year in that area. How accurately changes in water masses as indicated by oxygen isotope composition can be reconstructed using oxygen isotope analysis of sea ice cores is addressed, along with methods/strategies that could be used to further optimize the results. The method described will be useful for winter detection of meteoric water presence in Arctic fast ice regions, which is important for climate studies in a rapidly changing Arctic. Land-fast sea ice effective fractionation coefficients were derived, with a range of +1.82‰ to +2.52‰. Those derived effective fractionation coefficients will be useful for future water mass component proportion calculations. In particular, the equations given can be used to inform choices made when
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, Huabiao; Yang, Wei; Yao, Tandong; Tian, Lide; Xu, Baiqing
2016-08-01
Rapid climate change at high elevations has accelerated glacier retreat in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. However, due to the lack of long-term glaciological measurements, there are still uncertainties regarding when the mass loss began and what the magnitude of mass loss is at such high elevations. Based on in situ glaciological observations during the past 9 years and a temperature-index mass balance model, this study investigates recent mass loss of the Naimona’nyi Glacier in the western Himalayas and reconstructs a 41-year (1973/74-2013/14) equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and glacier-wide mass loss. The result indicates that even at 6000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), the annual mass loss reaches ~0.73 m water equivalent (w.e.) during the past 9 years. Concordant with the abrupt climate shift in the end of 1980s, the ELA has dramatically risen from ~5969 ± 73 m a.s.l. during 1973/74-1988/89 to ~6193 ± 75 m a.s.l. during 1989/90-2013/14, suggesting that future ice cores containing uninterrupted climate records could only be recovered at least above 6200 m a.s.l. in the Naimona’nyi region. The glacier-wide mass balance over the past 41 years is averaged to be approximately -0.40 ± 0.17 m w.e., exhibiting a significant increase in the decadal average from -0.01 ± 0.15 to -0.69 ± 0.21 m w.e.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.
2011-01-01
Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.
Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard
2015-04-01
Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.
A 25-year Record of Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shepherd, A.; Muir, A. S.; Sundal, A.; McMillan, M.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Engdahl, M.; Gilbert, L.
2017-12-01
Since 1992, the European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1 and ERS-2), ENVISAT, and CryoSat-2 satellite radar altimeters have measured the Antarctic ice sheet surface elevation, repeatedly, at approximately monthly intervals. These data constitute the longest continuous record of ice sheet wide change. In this paper, we use these observations to determine changes in the elevation, volume and mass of the East Antarctic and West Antarctic ice sheets, and of parts of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet, over a 25-year period. The root mean square difference between elevation rates computed from our survey and 257,296 estimates determined from airborne laser measurements is 54 cm/yr. The longevity of the satellite altimeter data record allows to identify and chart the evolution of changes associated with meteorology and ice flow, and we estimate that 3.6 % of the continental ice sheet, and 21.7 % of West Antarctica, is in a state of dynamical imbalance. Based on this partitioning, we estimate the mass balance of the East and West Antarctic ice sheet drainage basins and the root mean square difference between these and independent estimates derived from satellite gravimetry is less than 5 Gt yr-1.
Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.; ...
2015-10-21
Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less
Balance Mass Flux and Velocity Across the Equilibrium Line in Ice Drainage Systems of Greenland
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
Estimates of balance mass flux and the depth-averaged ice velocity through the cross-section aligned with the equilibrium line are produced for each of six drainage systems in Greenland. (The equilibrium line, which lies at approximately 1200 m elevation on the ice sheet, is the boundary between the area of net snow accumulation at higher elevations and the areas of net melting at lower elevations around the ice sheet.) Ice drainage divides and six major drainage systems are delineated using surface topography from ERS (European Remote Sensing) radar altimeter data. The net accumulation rate in the accumulation zone bounded by the equilibrium line is 399 Gt/yr and net ablation rate in the remaining area is 231 Gt/yr. (1 GigaTon of ice is 1090 kM(exp 3). The mean balance mass flux and depth-averaged ice velocity at the cross-section aligned with the modeled equilibrium line are 0.1011 Gt kM(exp -2)/yr and 0.111 km/yr, respectively, with little variation in these values from system to system. The ratio of the ice mass above the equilibrium line to the rate of mass output implies an effective exchange time of approximately 6000 years for total mass exchange. The range of exchange times, from a low of 3 ka in the SE drainage system to 14 ka in the NE, suggests a rank as to which regions of the ice sheet may respond more rapidly to climate fluctuations.
Geoengineering Marine Ice Sheets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolovick, M.
2017-12-01
Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting at the grounding line. Rapid melting near the grounding line causes ice shelf thinning, loss of buttressing, flow acceleration, grounding line retreat, and ultimately mass loss and sea-level rise. If the grounding line enters a section of overdeepened bed the ice sheet may even enter a runaway collapse via the marine ice sheet instability. The warm water that triggers this process resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep troughs in the continental shelf. In Greenland, warm water transport is further constricted through narrow fjords. Here, I propose blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width- and depth-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of ocean melting, I find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing the grounding line at depth. Blocking of warm water from the sub-ice cavity causes ice shelf thickening, increased buttressing, and grounding line readvance. The increase in buttressing is greatly magnified if the thickened ice shelf regrounds on a bathymetric high or on the artificial sill itself. In some experiments for Thwaites Glacier the grounding line is able to recover from a severely retreated state over 100 km behind its present-day position. Such a dramatic recovery demonstrates that it is possible, at least in principle, to stop and reverse an ongoing marine ice sheet collapse. If the ice shelf regrounds on the artificial sill itself, erosion of the sill beneath the grounded ice could reduce the effectiveness of the intervention. However, experiments including sill erosion suggest that even a very weak sill (1 kPa) could delay a collapse for centuries. The scale of the artificial sills in Greenlandic fjords is comparable to
Calibrating a surface mass-balance model for Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schuler, Thomas Vikhamar; Loe, Even; Taurisano, Andrea; Eiken, Trond; Hagen, Jon Ove; Kohler, Jack
2007-10-01
Austfonna (8120 km2) is by far the largest ice mass in the Svalbard archipelago. There is considerable uncertainty about its current state of balance and its possible response to climate change. Over the 2004/05 period, we collected continuous meteorological data series from the ice cap, performed mass-balance measurements using a network of stakes distributed across the ice cap and mapped the distribution of snow accumulation using ground-penetrating radar along several profile lines. These data are used to drive and test a model of the surface mass balance. The spatial accumulation pattern was derived from the snow depth profiles using regression techniques, and ablation was calculated using a temperature-index approach. Model parameters were calibrated using the available field data. Parameter calibration was complicated by the fact that different parameter combinations yield equally acceptable matches to the stake data while the resulting calculated net mass balance differs considerably. Testing model results against multiple criteria is an efficient method to cope with non-uniqueness. In doing so, a range of different data and observations was compared to several different aspects of the model results. We find a systematic underestimation of net balance for parameter combinations that predict observed ice ablation, which suggests that refreezing processes play an important role. To represent these effects in the model, a simple PMAX approach was included in its formulation. Used as a diagnostic tool, the model suggests that the surface mass balance for the period 29 April 2004 to 23 April 2005 was negative (-318 mm w.e.).
Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.
2017-12-01
Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.
Snow contribution to first-year and second-year Arctic sea ice mass balance north of Svalbard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Granskog, Mats A.; Rösel, Anja; Dodd, Paul A.; Divine, Dmitry; Gerland, Sebastian; Martma, Tõnu; Leng, Melanie J.
2017-03-01
The salinity and water oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of 29 first-year (FYI) and second-year (SYI) Arctic sea ice cores (total length 32.0 m) from the drifting ice pack north of Svalbard were examined to quantify the contribution of snow to sea ice mass. Five cores (total length 6.4 m) were analyzed for their structural composition, showing variable contribution of 10-30% by granular ice. In these cores, snow had been entrained in 6-28% of the total ice thickness. We found evidence of snow contribution in about three quarters of the sea ice cores, when surface granular layers had very low δ18O values. Snow contributed 7.5-9.7% to sea ice mass balance on average (including also cores with no snow) based on δ18O mass balance calculations. In SYI cores, snow fraction by mass (12.7-16.3%) was much higher than in FYI cores (3.3-4.4%), while the bulk salinity of FYI (4.9) was distinctively higher than for SYI (2.7). We conclude that oxygen isotopes and salinity profiles can give information on the age of the ice and enables distinction between FYI and SYI (or older) ice in the area north of Svalbard.
Mass Loss during Late Stellar Evolution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olofsson, Hans
1999-10-01
Extensive post-main sequence mass loss occurs for low- and intermediate-mass (up to ~8MSun) stars on the asymptotic giant branch (AGB), and for the higher-mass stars during their red supergiant evolution. These winds have a profound effect on the evolution of the stars, as well as for the enrichment of the interstellar medium with heavy elements and grain particles. The mass loss on the AGB is the by far most well studied, but a good deal of the basic processes are still not understood or cannot be described in a proper quantitative way, e.g., the mass loss mechanism itself. Furthermore, these objects provide us with fascinating systems, where intricate interplays between various physical and chemical processes take place, and their relative simplicity in terms of geometry, density distribution, and kinematics makes them excellent astrophysical laboratories. In this review we will concentrate on those aspects of AGB mass loss that are particularly well studied using a large millimetre array.
Martín-Español, Alba; Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Clarke, Peter J; Flament, Thomas; Helm, Veit; King, Matt A; Luthcke, Scott B; Petrie, Elizabeth; Rémy, Frederique; Schön, Nana; Wouters, Bert; Bamber, Jonathan L
2016-02-01
We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic-corrected GPS data for the period 2003-2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time-invariant solution for glacio-isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003-2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rate of -84 ± 22 Gt yr -1 , with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of -111 ± 13 Gt yr -1 . West Antarctica is the largest contributor with -112 ± 10 Gt yr -1 , mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of -28 ± 7 Gt yr -1 and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 ± 18 Gt yr -1 in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.
Mass loss and stellar superwinds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vink, Jorick S.
2017-09-01
Mass loss bridges the gap between massive stars and supernovae (SNe) in two major ways: (i) theoretically, it is the amount of mass lost that determines the mass of the star prior to explosion and (ii) observations of the circumstellar material around SNe may teach us the type of progenitor that made the SN. Here, I present the latest models and observations of mass loss from massive stars, both for canonical massive O stars, as well as very massive stars that show Wolf-Rayet type features. This article is part of the themed issue 'Bridging the gap: from massive stars to supernovae'.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vincent, C.; Ramanathan, Al.; Wagnon, P.; Dobhal, D. P.; Linda, A.; Berthier, E.; Sharma, P.; Arnaud, Y.; Azam, M. F.; Jose, P. G.; Gardelle, J.
2013-04-01
The volume change of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (India, 32° 20 N, 77° 30' E) between 1988 and 2010 has been determined using in situ geodetic measurements. This glacier has experienced only a slight mass loss between 1988 and 2010 (-3.8 ± 2.0 m w.e. (water equivalent) corresponding to -0.17 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr-1). Using satellite digital elevation models (DEM) differencing and field measurements, we measure a negative mass balance (MB) between 1999 and 2010 (-4.8 ± 1.8 m w.e. corresponding to -0.44 ± 0.16 m w.e. yr-1). Thus, we deduce a slightly positive or near-zero MB between 1988 and 1999 (+1.0 ± 2.7 m w.e. corresponding to +0.09 ± 0.24 m w.e. yr-1). Furthermore, satellite DEM differencing reveals that the MB of the Chhota Shigri Glacier (-0.39 ± 0.15 m w.e. yr-1) has been only slightly less negative than the MB of a 2110 km2 glaciarized area in the Lahaul and Spiti region (-0.44 ± 0.09 m w.e. yr-1) during 1999-2011. Hence, we conclude that the ice wastage is probably moderate in this region over the last 22 yr, with near equilibrium conditions during the nineties, and an ice mass loss after. The turning point from balanced to negative mass budget is not known but lies probably in the late nineties and at the latest in 1999. This positive or near-zero MB for Chhota Shigri Glacier (and probably for the surrounding glaciers of the Lahaul and Spiti region) during at least part of the 1990s contrasts with a recent compilation of MB data in the Himalayan range that indicated ice wastage since 1975. However, in agreement with this compilation, we confirm more negative balances since the beginning of the 21st century.
Oceanographic Influences on Ice Shelves and Drainage in the Amundsen Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Minzoni, R. T.; Anderson, J. B.; Majewski, W.; Yokoyama, Y.; Fernandez, R.; Jakobsson, M.
2016-12-01
Marine sediment cores collected during the IB OdenSouthern Ocean 2009-2010 cruise are used to reconstruct the Holocene history of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf, which today occupies Ferrero Bay, a large embayment of eastern Pine Island Bay. Detailed sedimentology, geochemistry, and micropaleontology of cores, in conjunction with subbottom profiles, reveal an unexpected history of recession. Presence of planktic foraminifera at the base of Kasten Core-15 suggests an episode of enhanced circulation beneath a large ice shelf that covered the Amundsen Sea during the Early Holocene, and relatively warm water incursion has been interpreted as a potential culprit for major recession and ice mass loss by 10.7 cal kyr BP from radiocarbon dating. Fine sediment deposition and low productivity throughout the Mid Holocene indicate long-lived stability of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf in Ferrero Bay, despite regional warming evident from ice core data and ice shelf loss in the Antarctic Peninsula. High productivity and diatom abundance signify opening of Ferrero Bay and recession of the Cosgrove Ice Shelf to its present day configuration by 2.0 cal kyr BP. This coincides with deglaciation of an island near Canisteo Peninsula according to published cosmogenic exposure ages. Presence of benthic foraminifera imply that warm deep water influx beneath the extended Cosgrove Ice Shelf was a mechanism for under-melting the ice shelf and destabilizing the grounding line. Major ice shelf recession may also entail continental ice mass loss from the eastern sector of the Amundsen Sea during the Late Holocene. Oceanographic forcing remains a key concern for the current stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially along the tidewater margins of West Antarctica. Ongoing work on diatom and foraminiferal assemblages of the Late Holocene in Ferrero Bay and other fjord settings will improve our understanding of recent oceanographic changes and their potential influence on ice shelves and outlet glaciers
History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights
Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Funder, S.; Marshall, S.J.; Miller, G.H.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Muhs, D.R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Polyak, L.; White, J.W.C.
2010-01-01
Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.
Mass loss and stellar superwinds.
Vink, Jorick S
2017-10-28
Mass loss bridges the gap between massive stars and supernovae (SNe) in two major ways: (i) theoretically, it is the amount of mass lost that determines the mass of the star prior to explosion and (ii) observations of the circumstellar material around SNe may teach us the type of progenitor that made the SN. Here, I present the latest models and observations of mass loss from massive stars, both for canonical massive O stars, as well as very massive stars that show Wolf-Rayet type features.This article is part of the themed issue 'Bridging the gap: from massive stars to supernovae'. © 2017 The Author(s).
Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.
2017-12-01
Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However
An ice-cream cone model for coronal mass ejections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xue, X. H.; Wang, C. B.; Dou, X. K.
2005-08-01
In this study, we use an ice-cream cone model to analyze the geometrical and kinematical properties of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Assuming that in the early phase CMEs propagate with near-constant speed and angular width, some useful properties of CMEs, namely the radial speed (v), the angular width (α), and the location at the heliosphere, can be obtained considering the geometrical shapes of a CME as an ice-cream cone. This model is improved by (1) using an ice-cream cone to show the near real configuration of a CME, (2) determining the radial speed via fitting the projected speeds calculated from the height-time relation in different azimuthal angles, (3) not only applying to halo CMEs but also applying to nonhalo CMEs.
Variable Basal Melt Rates of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, 1994-2016
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adusumilli, Susheel; Fricker, Helen Amanda; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Padman, Laurie; Paolo, Fernando S.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.
2018-05-01
We have constructed 23-year (1994-2016) time series of Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice-shelf height change using data from four satellite radar altimeters (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat, and CryoSat-2). Combining these time series with output from atmospheric and firn models, we partitioned the total height-change signal into contributions from varying surface mass balance, firn state, ice dynamics, and basal mass balance. On the Bellingshausen coast of the AP, ice shelves lost 84 ± 34 Gt a-1 to basal melting, compared to contributions of 50 ± 7 Gt a-1 from surface mass balance and ice dynamics. Net basal melting on the Weddell coast was 51 ± 71 Gt a-1. Recent changes in ice-shelf height include increases over major AP ice shelves driven by changes in firn state. Basal melt rates near Bawden Ice Rise, a major pinning point of Larsen C Ice Shelf, showed large increases, potentially leading to substantial loss of buttressing if sustained.
Gaussian Process Model for Antarctic Surface Mass Balance and Ice Core Site Selection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
White, P. A.; Reese, S.; Christensen, W. F.; Rupper, S.
2017-12-01
Surface mass balance (SMB) is an important factor in the estimation of sea level change, and data are collected to estimate models for prediction of SMB on the Antarctic ice sheet. Using Favier et al.'s (2013) quality-controlled aggregate data set of SMB field measurements, a fully Bayesian spatial model is posed to estimate Antarctic SMB and propose new field measurement locations. Utilizing Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) models, SMB is estimated over the Antarctic ice sheet. An Antarctic SMB map is rendered using this model and is compared with previous estimates. A prediction uncertainty map is created to identify regions of high SMB uncertainty. The model estimates net SMB to be 2173 Gton yr-1 with 95% credible interval (2021,2331) Gton yr-1. On average, these results suggest lower Antarctic SMB and higher uncertainty than previously purported [Vaughan et al. (1999); Van de Berg et al. (2006); Arthern, Winebrenner and Vaughan (2006); Bromwich et al. (2004); Lenaerts et al. (2012)], even though this model utilizes significantly more observations than previous models. Using the Gaussian process' uncertainty and model parameters, we propose 15 new measurement locations for field study utilizing a maximin space-filling, error-minimizing design; these potential measurements are identied to minimize future estimation uncertainty. Using currently accepted Antarctic mass balance estimates and our SMB estimate, we estimate net mass loss [Shepherd et al. (2012); Jacob et al. (2012)]. Furthermore, we discuss modeling details for both space-time data and combining field measurement data with output from mathematical models using the NNGP framework.
Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet
Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.
2017-01-01
The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Owocki, S.
2008-06-01
Stellar rotation can play an important role in structuring and enhancing the mass loss from massive stars. Initial 1D models focussed on the expected centrifugal enhancement of the line-driven mass flux from the equator of a rotating star, but the review here emphasizes that the loss of centrifugal support away from the stellar surface actually limits the steady mass flux to just the point-star CAK value, with models near critical rotation characterized by a slow, subcritical acceleration. Recent suggestions that such slow outflows might have high enough density to explain disks in Be or B[e] stars are examined in the context of 2D simulations of the ``Wind Compressed Disk'' (WCD) paradigm, together with a review of the tendency for poleward components of the line-driving force to inhibit WCD formation. When one accounts for equatorial gravity darkening, the net tendency is in fact for the relatively bright regions at higher latitude to drive a faster, denser ``bipolar'' outflow. I discuss the potential relevance for the bipolar form of nebulae from LBV stars like η Carinae, but emphasize that, since the large mass loss associated with the eruption of eta Carinae's Homunculus would heavily saturate line-driving, explaining its bipolar form requires development of analogous models for continuum-driven mass loss. I conclude with a discussion of how radiation seems inherently ill-suited to supporting or driving a geometrically thin, but optically thick disk or disk outflow. The disks inferred in Be and B[e] stars may instead be centrifugally ejected, with radiation inducing an ablation flow from the disk surface, and thus perhaps playing a greater role in destroying (rather than creating) an orbiting, circumstellar disk.
Increased West Antarctic and unchanged East Antarctic ice discharge over the last 7 years
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gardner, Alex S.; Moholdt, Geir; Scambos, Ted; Fahnstock, Mark; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel; Nilsson, Johan
2018-02-01
Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea-level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery spanning 2013-2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ˜ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity north of 82.4° S with a mean error of < 10 m yr-1, resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylight period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1929 ± 40 Gigatons per year (Gt yr-1) in 2015, an increase of 36 ± 15 Gt yr-1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 88 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably constant over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 183 ± 94 Gt yr-1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a dynamic imbalance. We find modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years, which suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica is part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent-wide radar mapping of ice flow.
Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea-Level over the Next Millennium
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aschwanden, A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Truffer, M.
2017-12-01
The contribution of Greenland's outlet glaciers to sea-level remains a wild card in global sea level predictions but progress in mapping ice thickness combined with high-resolution flow modeling now allow to revisit questions about the long-term stability of the ice sheet. Here we present the first outlet glacier resolving assessment of Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. We find that increased ice discharge resulting from acceleration of outlet glaciers due to ice melt at tidewater glacier margins dominates mass loss during the 21st century. However, as the ice sheet surfaces lowers, surface melt increases and over the course of the millennium, the relative contribution of ice discharge to total mass loss decreases. By the end of the 22nd century, most outlet glaciers in the north-west will have retreated out of tide-water, while in south-east enhanced precipitation partially offsets high ice discharge. The outlet glaciers of the central west coast, most notably Jakobshavn Isbrae, play a key role in dynamic mass loss due to their submarine connection to the interior reservoir. We find that coast-ward advection of cold ice from the interior counteracts outlet glacier acceleration by increasing ice viscosity and thereby reducing vertical shearing. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the ice margin in north and north-east Greenland retreats far enough to reach the vast interior where the subglacial topography is below sea level. This leads to a dramatic retreat in the second part of the millenium, and Greenland could shrink to 10% of its current volume by the end of the millennium.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rowan, Ann V.; Egholm, David L.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.
2015-11-01
Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier-Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.
2012-12-01
We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be
Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.
Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan
2017-12-05
From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.
Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean : Climatology and impact on sea ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Merino, Nacho; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gael; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Madec, Gurvan; Mathiot, Pierre; Tournadre, Jean
2016-08-01
Recent increase in Antarctic freshwater release to the Southern Ocean is suggested to contribute to change in water masses and sea ice. However, climate models differ in their representation of the freshwater sources. Recent improvements in altimetry-based detection of small icebergs and in estimates of the mass loss of Antarctica may help better constrain the values of Antarctic freshwater releases. We propose a model-based seasonal climatology of iceberg melt over the Southern Ocean using state-of-the-art observed glaciological estimates of the Antarctic mass loss. An improved version of a Lagrangian iceberg model is coupled with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea ice model and compared to small icebergs observations. Iceberg melt increases sea ice cover, about 10% in annual mean sea ice volume, and decreases sea surface temperature over most of the Southern Ocean, but with distinctive regional patterns. Our results underline the importance of improving the representation of Antarctic freshwater sources. This can be achieved by forcing ocean/sea ice models with a climatological iceberg fresh-water flux.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Downes, Stephanie M.; Farneti, Riccardo; Uotila, Petteri; Griffies, Stephen M.; Marsland, Simon J.; Bailey, David; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne;
2015-01-01
We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.
Antarctic mass balance changes from GRACE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kallenberg, B.; Tregoning, P.
2012-04-01
The Antarctic ice sheet contains ~30 million km3 of ice and constitutes a significant component of the global water balance with enough freshwater to raise global sea level by ~60 m. Altimetry measurements and climate models suggest variable behaviour across the Antarctic ice sheet, with thickening occurring in a vast area of East Antarctica and substantial thinning in West Antarctica caused by increased temperature gradients in the surrounding ocean. However, the rate at which the polar ice cap is melting is still poorly constrained. To calculate the mass loss of an ice sheet it is necessary to separate present day mass balance changes from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the response of the Earth's crust to mass loss, wherefore it is essential to undertake sufficient geological and geomorphological sampling. As there is only a limited possibility for this in Antarctica, all models (i.e. geological, hydrological as well as atmospheric) are very poorly constrained. Therefore, space-geodetic observations play an important role in detecting changes in mass and spatial variations in the Earth's gravity field. The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed spatial variations in the Earth's gravity field over the past ten years. The satellite detects mass variations in the Earth system including geophysical, hydrological and atmospheric shifts. GRACE itself is not able to separate the GIA from mass balance changes and, due to the insufficient geological and geomorphological database, it is not possible to model the GIA effect accurately for Antarctica. However, the results from GRACE can be compared with other scientific results, coming from other geodetic observations such as satellite altimetry and GPS or by the use of geological observations. In our contribution we compare the GRACE data with recorded precipitation patterns and mass anomalies over East Antarctica to separate the observed GRACE signal into its two components: GIA as a result of mass
Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C
2017-07-01
The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from three years of IceTop and IceCube
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rawlins, K.;
2016-05-01
IceTop is the surface component of the IceCube Observatory, composed of frozen water tanks at the top of IceCube’s strings. Data from this detector can be analyzed in different ways with the goal of measuring cosmic ray spectrum and composition. The shower size S125 from IceTop alone can be used as a proxy for primary energy, and unfolded into an all-particle spectrum. In addition, S125 from the surface can be combined with high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep IceCube detector for those air showers which pass through both. Using these coincident events in a complementary analysis, both the spectrum and mass composition of primary cosmic rays can be extracted in parallel using a neural network. Both of these analyses have been performed on three years of IceTop and IceCube data. Both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.
Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seehaus, Thorsten; Marinsek, Sebastian; Cook, Alison; Van Wessem, Jan-Melchior; Braun, Matthias
2017-04-01
The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. A period of pronounced air temperature rise, increasing ocean temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation pattern have been reported by various authors. Consequently, the glacial systems showed changes including widespread retreat, surface lowering as well as variations in flow speeds. During the last decades numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated completely. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. Quantification of the mass changes is still subject to considerable errors although numbers derived from the different methods are converging. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes. We analysed time series of various satellite sensors (ERS-1/2 SAR, ENVISAT ASAR, RADARSAT-1, ALOS PALSAR, TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, ASTER, Landsat) to detect changes in ice dynamics of 74 glacier basins along the northern Antarctic Peninsula (<65°). Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer temporal trends in glacier surface velocities. In combination with ice thickness reconstructions and modeled climatic mass balance fields regional imbalances were calculated. Variations in ice front position were mapped based on optical and SAR satellite data sets. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. Nearly all former ice shelf
Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heimbach, Patrick
2014-03-01
Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.
connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.
2013-12-01
This presentation is of a 'unified theory' in glaciology that first identifies surface albedo as a key factor explaining total ice sheet mass balance and then surveys a mechanistic self-reinforcing interaction between melt water and ice flow dynamics. The theory is applied in a near-real time total Greenland mass balance retrieval based on surface albedo, a powerful integrator of the competing effects of accumulation and ablation. New snowfall reduces sunlight absorption and increases meltwater retention. Melting amplifies absorbed sunlight through thermal metamorphism and bare ice expansion in space and time. By ';following the melt'; we reveal mechanisms linking existing science into a unified theory. Increasing meltwater softens the ice sheet in three ways: 1.) sensible heating given the water temperature exceeds that of the ice sheet interior; 2.) Some infiltrating water refreezes, transferring latent heat to the ice; 3.) Friction from water turbulence heats the ice. It has been shown that for a point on the ice sheet, basal lubrication increases ice flow speed to a time when an efficient sub-glacial drainage network develops that reduces this effect. Yet, with an increasing melt duration the point where the ice sheet glides on a wet bed increases inland to a larger area. This effect draws down the ice surface elevation, contributing to the ';elevation feedback'. In a perpetual warming scenario, the elevation feedback ultimately leads to ice sheet loss reversible only through much slower ice sheet growth in an ice age environment. As the inland ice sheet accelerates, the horizontal extension pulls cracks and crevasses open, trapping more sunlight, amplifying the effect of melt accelerated ice. As the bare ice area increases, the direct sun-exposed crevassed and infiltration area increases further allowing the ice warming process to occur more broadly. Considering hydrofracture [a.k.a. hydrofracking]; surface meltwater fills cracks, attacking the ice integrity
Deglaciation-induced uplift of the Petermann glacier ice margin observed with InSAR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Q.; Amelung, F.; Wdowinski, S.
2016-12-01
The Greenland ice sheet is rapidly shrinking with the fastest retreat and thinning occurring at the ice sheet margin and near the outlet glaciers. The changes of the ice mass cause an elastic response of the bedrock. Ice mass loss during the summer months is associated with uplift, whereas ice mass increase during the winter months is associated with subsidence.The German TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellites have systematically observed selected sites along the Greenland Petermann ice sheet margin since summer 2012. Here we present ground deformation observations obtained using an InSAR time-series approach based on small baseline interferograms. We observed rapid deglaciation-induced uplift on naked bedrock near the Petermann glacier ice margin Deformation observed by InSAR is consistent with GPS vertical observations. The time series displacement data reveal not only net uplift but also the seasonal variations. There is no strong relative between displacement changes and SMB ice mass change. The seasonal variations in local area may caused by both nearby SMB changes and ice dynamic changes.
Using GRACE and climate model simulations to predict mass loss of Alaskan glaciers through 2100
Wahr, John; Burgess, Evan; Swenson, Sean
2016-05-30
Glaciers in Alaska are currently losing mass at a rate of ~–50 Gt a –1, one of the largest ice loss rates of any regional collection of mountain glaciers on Earth. Existing projections of Alaska's future sea-level contributions tend to be divergent and are not tied directly to regional observations. Here we develop a simple, regional observation-based projection of Alaska's future sea-level contribution. We compute a time series of recent Alaska glacier mass variability using monthly GRACE gravity fields from August 2002 through December 2014. We also construct a three-parameter model of Alaska glacier mass variability based on monthly ERA-Interimmore » snowfall and temperature fields. When these three model parameters are fitted to the GRACE time series, the model explains 94% of the variance of the GRACE data. Using these parameter values, we then apply the model to simulated fields of monthly temperature and snowfall from the Community Earth System Model, to obtain predictions of mass variations through 2100. Here, we conclude that mass loss rates may increase between –80 and –110 Gt a –1by 2100, with a total sea-level rise contribution of 19 ± 4 mm during the 21st century.« less
Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Xiaojian
The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Koldtoft, Iben; Midefelt, Linnea; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens
2016-04-01
Globally, small ice caps and glaciers make a substantial contribution to sea level rise; this is also true in the Arctic. Around Greenland small ice caps are surprisingly important to the total mass balance from the island as their marginal coastal position means they receive a large amount of precipitation and also experience high surface melt rates. Since small ice caps and glaciers have had a disproportionate number of long-term monitoring and observational schemes in the Arctic, likely due to their relative accessibility, they can also be a valuable source of data. However, in climate models the surface mass balance contributions are often not distinguished from the main ice sheet and the presence of high relief topography is difficult to capture in coarse resolution climate models. At the same time, the diminutive size of marginal ice masses in comparison to the ice sheet makes modelling their ice dynamics difficult. Using observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada and the Renland Ice Cap in Eastern Greenland, we assess the success of a very high resolution (~5km) regional climate model, HIRHAM5 in capturing the surface mass balance (SMB) of these small ice caps. The model is forced with ERA-Interim and we compare observed mean SMB and the interannual variability to assess model performance. The steep gradient in topography around Renland is challenging for climate models and additional statistical corrections are required to fit the calculated surface mass balance to the high relief topography. Results from a modelling experiment at Renland Ice Cap shows that this technique produces a better fit between modelled and observed surface topography. We apply this statistical relationship to modelled SMB on the Devon Ice Cap and use the long time series of observations from this glacier to evaluate the model and the smoothed SMB. Measured SMB values from a number of other small ice caps including Mittivakkat and A.P. Olsen ice cap are also compared
Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics.
Csatho, Beata M; Schenk, Anton F; van der Veen, Cornelis J; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Simonsen, Sebastian B; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H
2014-12-30
We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993-2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt ⋅ y(-1), equivalent to 0.68 mm ⋅ y(-1) sea level rise (SLR) for 2003-2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004-2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland's outlet glaciers.
Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.
Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A
2009-01-01
The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.
Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polyakov, Igor V.; Pnyushkov, Andrey V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Ashik, Igor M.; Baumann, Till M.; Carmack, Eddy C.; Goszczko, Ilona; Guthrie, John; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Kanzow, Torsten; Krishfield, Richard; Kwok, Ronald; Sundfjord, Arild; Morison, James; Rember, Robert; Yulin, Alexander
2017-04-01
Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching “atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.
Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sagol, Ece
Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.
2017-12-01
Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan; Ragettli, Silvan; Brun, Fanny; Steiner, Jakob; Pellicciotti, Francesca
2016-04-01
Supraglacial cliffs are a surface feature typical of debris-covered glaciers, affecting surface evolution, glacier downwasting and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface. As a result, melt rates can be very high and ice cliffs may account for a significant portion of the total glacier mass loss. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has rarely been quantified through physically-based models. Most cliff energy balance models are point scale models which calculate energy fluxes at individual cliff locations. Results from the only grid based model to date accurately reflect energy fluxes and cliff melt, but modelled backwasting patterns are in some cases unrealistic, as the distribution of melt rates would lead to progressive shallowing and disappearance of cliffs. Based on a unique multitemporal dataset of cliff topography and backwasting obtained from high-resolution terrestrial and aerial Structure-from-Motion analysis on Lirung Glacier in Nepal, it is apparent that cliffs exhibit a range of behaviours but most do not rapidly disappear. The patterns of evolution cannot be explained satisfactorily by atmospheric melt alone, and are moderated by the presence of supraglacial ponds at the base of cliffs and by cliff reburial with debris. Here, we document the distinct patterns of evolution including disappearance, growth and stability. We then use these observations to improve the grid-based energy balance model, implementing periodic updates of the cliff geometry resulting from modelled melt perpendicular to the ice surface. Based on a slope threshold, pixels can be reburied by debris or become debris-free. The effect of ponds are taken into account through enhanced melt rates in horizontal direction on pixels selected based on an algorithm considering distance to the water surface, slope and lake level. We use the dynamic model to first study the evolution of selected cliffs for which accurate, high resolution DEMs are available
An Iterated Global Mascon Solution with Focus on Land Ice Mass Evolution
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Luthcke, S. B.; Sabaka, T.; Rowlands, D. D.; Lemoine, F. G.; Loomis, B. D.; Boy, J. P.
2012-01-01
Land ice mass evolution is determined from a new GRACE global mascon solution. The solution is estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range rate observations taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons are estimated with 10-day and 1-arc-degree equal area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints for enhanced temporal and spatial resolution of the recovered land ice signal. The details of the solution are presented including error and resolution analysis. An Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) adaptive filter is applied to the mascon solution time series to compute timing of balance seasons and annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land ice regions studied are discussed.
Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;
2013-01-01
The accelerating loss of mass from the Greenland ice sheet is a major contribution to current sea level rise. Increased melt water runoff is responsible for half of Greenlands mass loss increase. Surface melt has been increasing in extent and intensity, setting a record for surface area melt and runoff in 2012. The mechanisms and timescales involved in allowing surface melt water to reach the ocean where it can contribute to sea level rise are poorly understood. The potential capacity to store this water in liquid or frozen form in the firn (multi-year snow layer) is significant, and could delay its sea-level contribution. Here we describe direct observation of water within a perennial firn aquifer persisting throughout the winter in the southern ice sheet,where snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storagemode for water within the ice sheet. Ice cores, groundairborne radar and a regional climatemodel are used to estimate aquifer area (70 plue or minus 10 x 10(exp 3) square kilometers ) and water table depth (5-50 m). The perennial firn aquifer represents a new glacier facies to be considered 29 in future ice sheet mass 30 and energy budget calculations.
Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.
2018-05-01
The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.
Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Flegel, Ashlie B.
2017-01-01
Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.
Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Flegel, Ashlie B.
2017-01-01
Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.
Analysis of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from ICESat Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui
2011-01-01
If protoplanets formed from 10 to 20 kilometer diameter planetesimals in a runaway accretion process prior to their oligarchic growth into the terrestrial planets, it is only logical to ask where these planetesimals may have formed in order to assess the initial composition of the Earth. We have used Weidenschilling's model for the formation of comets (1997) to calculate an efficiency factor for the formation of planetesimals from the solar nebula, then used this factor to calculate the feeding zones that contribute to material contained within 10, 15 and 20 kilometer diameter planetesimals at 1 A.V. as a function of nebular mass. We find that for all reasonable nebular masses, these planetesimals contain a minimum of 3% water as ice by mass. The fraction of ice increases as the planetesimals increase in size and as the nebular mass decreases, since both factors increase the feeding zones from which solids in the final planetesimals are drawn. Is there really a problem with the current accretion scenario that makes the Earth too dry, or is it possible that the nascent Earth lost significant quantities of water in the final stages of accretion?
Overview and Assessment of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Estimates: 1992-2009
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.
2011-01-01
Mass balance estimates for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in more recent reports lie between approximately ?50 to -250 Gt/year for 1992 to 2009. The 300 Gt/year range is approximately 15% of the annual mass input and 0.8 mm/year Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). Two estimates from radar altimeter measurements of elevation change by European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS) (?28 and -31 Gt/year) lie in the upper part, whereas estimates from the Input-minus-Output Method (IOM) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) lie in the lower part (-40 to -246 Gt/year). We compare the various estimates, discuss the methodology used, and critically assess the results. We also modify the IOM estimate using (1) an alternate extrapolation to estimate the discharge from the non-observed 15% of the periphery, and (2) substitution of input from a field data compilation for input from an atmospheric model in 6% of area. The modified IOM estimate reduces the loss from 136 Gt/year to 13 Gt/year. Two ERS-based estimates, the modified IOM, and a GRACE-based estimate for observations within 1992 2005 lie in a narrowed range of ?27 to -40 Gt/year, which is about 3% of the annual mass input and only 0.2 mm/year SLE. Our preferred estimate for 1992 2001 is -47 Gt/year for West Antarctica, ?16 Gt/year for East Antarctica, and -31 Gt/year overall (?0.1 mm/year SLE), not including part of the Antarctic Peninsula (1.07% of the AIS area). Although recent reports of large and increasing rates of mass loss with time from GRACE-based studies cite agreement with IOM results, our evaluation does not support that conclusion
Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja
2013-04-01
Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.
Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenaerts, J.
2017-12-01
Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Studinger, M.; Medley, B.; Manizade, S.; Linkswiler, M. A.
2016-12-01
Repeat airborne laser altimetry measurements can provide large-scale field observations to better quantify spatial and temporal variability of surface processes contributing to seasonal elevation change and therefore surface mass balance. As part of NASA's Operation IceBridge the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter measured the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet during spring (March - May) and fall (September - October) of 2015. Comparison of the two surveys reveals a general trend of thinning for outlet glaciers and for the ice sheet in a manner related to elevation and latitude. In contrast, some thickening is observed on the west (but not on the east) side of the ice divide above 2200 m elevation in the southern half, below latitude 69°N.The observed magnitude and spatial patterns of the summer melt signal can be utilized as input into ice sheet models and for validating reanalysis of regional climate models such as RACMO and MAR. We use seasonal anomalies in MERRA-2 climate fields (temperature, precipitation) to understand the observed spatial signal in seasonal change. Aside from surface elevation change, runoff from meltwater pooling in supraglacial lakes and meltwater channels accounts for at least half of the total mass loss. The ability of the ATM laser altimeters to image glacial hydrological features in 3-D and determine the depth of supraglacial lakes could be used for process studies and for quantifying melt processes over large scales. The 1-meter footprint diameter of ATM laser on the surface, together with a high shot density, allows for the production of large-scale, high-resolution, geodetic quality DEMs (50 x 50 cm) suitable for fine-scale glacial hydrology research and as input to hydrological models quantifying runoff.
Regional ice-mass changes and glacial-isostatic adjustment in Antarctica from GRACE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sasgen, Ingo; Martinec, Zdeněk; Fleming, Kevin
2007-12-01
We infer regional mass changes in Antarctica using ca. 4 years of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level 2 data. We decompose the time series of the Stokes coefficients into their linear as well as annual and semi-annual components by a least-squares adjustment and apply a statistical reliability test to the Stokes potential-coefficients' linear temporal trends. Mass changes in three regions of Antarctica that display prominent geoid-height change are determined by adjusting predictions of glacier melting at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the Amundsen Sea Sector, and of the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) over the Ronne Ice Shelf. We use the GFZ RL04, CNES RL01C, JPL RL04 and CSR RL04 potential-coefficient releases, and show that, although all data sets consistently reflect the prominent mass changes, differences in the mass-change estimates are considerably larger than the uncertainties estimated by the propagation of the GRACE errors. We then use the bootstrapping method based on the four releases and six time intervals, each with 3.5 years of data, to quantify the variability of the mean mass-change estimates. We find 95% of our estimates to lie within 0.08 and 0.09 mm/a equivalent sea-level (ESL) change for the Antarctic Peninsula and within 0.18 and 0.20 mm/a ESL for the Amundsen Sea Sector. Forward modelling of the GIA over the Ronne Ice Shelf region suggests that the Antarctic continent was covered by 8.4 to 9.4 m ESL of additional ice during the Last-Glacial Maximum (ca. 22 to 15 ka BP). With regards to the mantle-viscosity values and the glacial history used, this value is considered as a minimum estimate. The mass-change estimates derived from all GRACE releases and time intervals lie within ca. 20% (Amundsen Sea Sector), 30% (Antarctic Peninsula) and 50% (Ronne Ice Shelf region) of the bootstrap-estimated mean, demonstrating the reliability of results obtained using GRACE observations.
Yun, Xiao; Quarini, Giuseppe L
2017-03-13
We demonstrate a method for the study of the heat and mass transfer and of the freezing phenomena in a subcooled brine environment. Our experiment showed that, under the proper conditions, ice can be produced when water is introduced to a bath of cold brine. To make ice form, in addition to having the brine and water mix, the rate of heat transfer must bypass that of mass transfer. When water is introduced in the form of tiny droplets to the brine surface, the mode of heat and mass transfer is by diffusion. The buoyancy stops water from mixing with the brine underneath, but as the ice grows thicker, it slows down the rate of heat transfer, making ice more difficult to grow as a result. When water is introduced inside the brine in the form of a flow, a number of factors are found to influence how much ice can form. Brine temperature and concentration, which are the driving forces of heat and mass transfer, respectively, can affect the water-to-ice conversion ratio; lower bath temperatures and brine concentrations encourage more ice to form. The flow rheology, which can directly affect both the heat and mass transfer coefficients, is also a key factor. In addition, the flow rheology changes the area of contact of the flow with the bulk fluid.
Short-term variations of Icelandic ice cap mass inferred from cGPS coordinate time series
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Compton, Kathleen; Bennett, Richard A.; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; van Dam, Tonie; Bordoni, Andrea; Barletta, Valentina; Spada, Giorgio
2017-06-01
As the global climate changes, understanding short-term variations in water storage is increasingly important. Continuously operating Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations in Iceland record annual periodic motion—the elastic response to winter accumulation and spring melt seasons—with peak-to-peak vertical amplitudes over 20 mm for those sites in the Central Highlands. Here for the first time for Iceland, we demonstrate the utility of these cGPS-measured displacements for estimating seasonal and shorter-term ice cap mass changes. We calculate unit responses to each of the five largest ice caps in central Iceland at each of the 62 cGPS locations using an elastic half-space model and estimate ice mass variations from the cGPS time series using a simple least squares inversion scheme. We utilize all three components of motion, taking advantage of the seasonal motion recorded in the horizontal. We remove secular velocities and accelerations and explore the impact that seasonal motions due to atmospheric, hydrologic, and nontidal ocean loading have on our inversion results. Our results match available summer and winter mass balance measurements well, and we reproduce the seasonal stake-based observations of loading and melting within the 1σ confidence bounds of the inversion. We identify nonperiodic ice mass changes associated with interannual variability in precipitation and other processes such as increased melting due to reduced ice surface albedo or decreased melting due to ice cap insulation in response to tephra deposition following volcanic eruptions, processes that are not resolved with once or twice-yearly stake measurements.
Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics
Csatho, Beata M.; Schenk, Anton F.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Babonis, Gregory; Duncan, Kyle; Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Nagarajan, Sudhagar; van Angelen, Jan H.
2014-01-01
We present a new record of ice thickness change, reconstructed at nearly 100,000 sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from laser altimetry measurements spanning the period 1993–2012, partitioned into changes due to surface mass balance (SMB) and ice dynamics. We estimate a mean annual GrIS mass loss of 243 ± 18 Gt⋅y−1, equivalent to 0.68 mm⋅y−1 sea level rise (SLR) for 2003–2009. Dynamic thinning contributed 48%, with the largest rates occurring in 2004–2006, followed by a gradual decrease balanced by accelerating SMB loss. The spatial pattern of dynamic mass loss changed over this time as dynamic thinning rapidly decreased in southeast Greenland but slowly increased in the southwest, north, and northeast regions. Most outlet glaciers have been thinning during the last two decades, interrupted by episodes of decreasing thinning or even thickening. Dynamics of the major outlet glaciers dominated the mass loss from larger drainage basins, and simultaneous changes over distances up to 500 km are detected, indicating climate control. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. Recent projections of dynamic contributions from the entire GrIS to SLR have been based on the extrapolation of four major outlet glaciers. Considering the observed complexity, we question how well these four glaciers represent all of Greenland’s outlet glaciers. PMID:25512537
Simulating ice thickness and velocity evolution of Upernavik Isstrøm 1849-2017 with ISSM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haubner, K.; Box, J.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Morlighem, M.; Solgaard, A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, S. H.; Rignot, E. J.; Dupont, T. K.; Kjaer, K. H.
2017-12-01
Tidewater terminus changes have a significant influence on glacier velocity and mass balance and impact therefore Greenland's ice mass balance. Improving glacier front changes in ice sheet models helps understanding the processes that are driving glacier mass changes and improves predictions on Greenland's mass loss. We use the level set based moving boundary capability (Bondzio et al., 2016) included in the Ice Sheet System Model ISSM to reconstruct velocity and thickness changes on Upernavik Isstrøm, Greenland from 1849 to 2017. During the simulation, we use various data sets. For the model initialization, trim line data and an observed calving front position determine the shape of the ice surface elevation. The terminus changes are prescribed by observations. Data sets like the GIMP DEM, ArcticDEM, IceBridge surface elevation and ice surface velocities from the ESA project CCI and NASA project MEaSUREs help evaluating the simulation performance. The simulation is sensitive to the prescribed terminus changes, showing an average acceleration along the three flow lines between 50% and 190% from 1849 to 2017. Simulated ice surface velocity and elevation between 1990 and 2012 are within +/-20% of observations (GIMP, ArcticDEM, IceBridge, CCI and MEaSUREs). Simulated mass changes indicate increased dynamical ice loss from 1932 onward, amplified by increased negative SMB anomalies after 1998. More detailed information about methods and findings can be found in Haubner et al., 2017 (in TC discussion, describing simulation results between 1849-2012). Future goals are the comparison of ice surface velocity changes simulated with prescribed terminus retreat against other retreat schemes (Morlighem et al., 2016; Levermann et al., 2012; Bondzio et al., 2017) and applying the method onto other tidewater glaciers.
Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Kääb, A.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.
2014-05-01
Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a-1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.
Large Ice Discharge From the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rignot, Eric
1999-01-01
The objectives of this work are to measure the ice discharge of the Greenland Ice Sheet close to the grounding line and/or calving front, and compare the results with mass accumulation and ablation in the interior to estimate the ice sheet mass balance.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wu, Xiao-Ping
1999-01-01
The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori
Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise
Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas
2013-01-01
We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337
Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.
Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas
2013-08-27
We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.
Mass loss in red giants and supergiants
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sanner, F.
1975-01-01
The circumstellar envelopes surrounding late-type giants and supergiants were studied using high resolution, photoelectric scans of strong optical resonance lines. A method for extracting the circumstellar from the stellar components of the lines allowed a quantitative determination of the physical conditions in the envelopes and the rates of mass loss at various positions in the red giant region of the HR diagram. The observed strengthening of the circumstellar spectrum with increasing luminosity and later spectral type is probably caused by an increase in the mass of the envelopes. The mass loss rate for individual stars is proportional to the visual luminosity; high rates for the supergiants suggest that mass loss is important in their evolution. The bulk of the mass return to the interstellar medium in the red giant region comes from the normal giants, at a rate comparable to that of planetary nebulae.
Arctic Sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lindsay, R. W.; Schweiger, A. J. B.
2014-12-01
68% reduction and there is no indication it may be leveling off as seen in an earlier study of submarine ice drafts by Rothrock et al. (2008). This is nearly double the 36% decline report by them. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of sea ice losses found in model reanalyses.
Detection and Analysis of Complex Patterns of Ice Dynamics in Antarctica from ICESat Laser Altimetry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Babonis, Gregory Scott
There remains much uncertainty in estimating the amount of Antarctic ice mass change, its dynamic component, and its spatial and temporal patterns. This work remedies the limitations of previous studies by generating the first detailed reconstruction of total and dynamic ice thickness and mass changes across Antarctica, from ICESat satellite altimetry observations in 2003-2009 using the Surface Elevation Reconstruction and Change Detection (SERAC) method. Ice sheet thickness changes are calculated with quantified error estimates for each time when ICESat flew over a ground-track crossover region, at approximately 110,000 locations across the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The time series are partitioned into changes due to surficial processes and ice dynamics. The new results markedly improve the spatial and temporal resolution of surface elevation, volume, and mass change rates for the AIS, and can be sampled at annual temporal resolutions. The results indicate a complex spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic mass loss in Antarctica, especially along individual outlet glaciers, and allow for the quantification of the annual contribution of Antarctic ice loss to sea level rise. Over 5000 individual locations exhibit either strong dynamic ice thickness change patterns, accounting for approximately 500 unique spatial clusters that identify regions likely influenced by subglacial hydrology. The spatial distribution and temporal behavior of these regions reveal the complexity and short-time scale variability in the subglacial hydrological system. From the 500 unique spatial clusters, over 370 represent newly identified, and not previously published, potential subglacial water bodies indicating an active subglacial hydrological system over a much larger region than previously observed. These numerous new observations of dynamic changes provide more than simply a larger set of data. Examination of both regional and local scale dynamic change patterns across Antarctica shows newly
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keisling, B. A.; Deconto, R. M.
2017-12-01
Today the Greenland Ice Sheet loses mass via both oceanic and atmospheric processes. However, the relative importance of these mass balance components is debated, especially their potential impact on ongoing and future mass imbalance. Discerning the impact of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing during past periods of mass loss provides potential insight into the future behavior of the ice sheet. Here we present an ensemble of Greenland Ice Sheet simulations of the last deglaciation, designed to assess separately the roles of the ocean and the atmosphere in driving mass loss over the last twenty thousand years. We use twenty-eight different ocean forcing scenarios along with a cutting-edge reconstruction of time-evolving atmospheric conditions based on climate model output and δ15N-based temperature reconstructions to generate a range of ice-sheet responses during the deglaciation. We then compare the simulated timing of ice-retreat in individual catchments with estimates based on both 10Be (exposure) and 14C (minimum-limiting) dates. These experiments allow us to identify the ocean forcing scenario that best match the data on a local-to-regional (i.e., 100-1000 km) scales, providing an assessment of the relative importance of ocean and atmospheric forcing components around the periphery of Greenland. We use these simulations to quantify the importance of the three major mass balance terms (calving, oceanic melting, and surface melting) and assess the uncertainty of the relative influence of these factors during the most recent periods of major ice loss. Our results show that mass balance components around different sectors of the ice sheet respond differently to forcing, with oceanic components driving the majority of retreat in south and east Greenland and atmospheric forcing dominating in west and north Greenland In addition, we target three areas at high spatial resolution ( 1 km) around Greenland currently undergoing substantial change (Jakobshavn, Petermann
Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.
2015-02-01
Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of mean ice thickness have been sparse in time and space, making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness, and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling errors. Observational sources used in this study include upward-looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to determine the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems, using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month, and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2012 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2012. Applying our method to the period 1975-2012 for the central Arctic Basin where we have sufficient data (the SCICEX box), we find that the annual mean ice thickness has decreased from 3.59 m in 1975 to 1.25 m in 2012, a 65% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational evidence of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.
Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.
2014-08-01
Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of ice thickness have been sparse in time and space making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling biases. Observational sources include upward looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to evaluate the systematic differences between eight different observation systems in the Arctic Basin. The approach determines the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2013 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2013, while the annual mean ice thickness for the central Arctic Basin alone (the SCICEX Box) has decreased from 3.45 m in 1975 to 1.11 m in 2013, a 68% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chuter, S. J.; Martín-Español, A.; Wouters, B.; Bamber, J. L.
2017-07-01
We present a reassessment of input-output method ice mass budget estimates for the Abbot and Getz regions of West Antarctica using CryoSat-2-derived ice thickness estimates. The mass budget is 8 ± 6 Gt yr-1 and 5 ± 17 Gt yr-1 for the Abbot and Getz sectors, respectively, for the period 2006-2008. Over the Abbot region, our results resolve a previous discrepancy with elevation rates from altimetry, due to a previous 30% overestimation of ice thickness. For the Getz sector, our results are at the more positive bound of estimates from other techniques. Grounding line velocity increases up to 20% between 2007 and 2014 alongside mean elevation rates of -0.67 ± 0.13 m yr-1 between 2010 and 2013 indicate the onset of a dynamic thinning signal. Mean snowfall trends of -0.33 m yr-1 water equivalent since 2006 indicate recent mass trends are driven by both ice dynamics and surface processes.
Potential Climatic Effects on the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bindschadler, R. A.
1984-01-01
The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.
Sea Ice Mass Balance Buoys (IMBs): First Results from a Data Processing Intercomparison Study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoppmann, Mario; Tiemann, Louisa; Itkin, Polona
2017-04-01
IMBs are autonomous instruments able to continuously monitor the growth and melt of sea ice and its snow cover at a single point on an ice floe. Complementing field expeditions, remote sensing observations and modelling studies, these in-situ data are crucial to assess the mass balance and seasonal evolution of sea ice and snow in the polar oceans. Established subtypes of IMBs combine coarse-resolution temperature profiles through air, snow, ice and ocean with ultrasonic pingers to detect snow accumulation and ice thermodynamic growth. Recent technological advancements enable the use of high-resolution temperature chains, which are also able to identify the surrounding medium through a „heating cycle". The temperature change during this heating cycle provides additional information on the internal properties and processes of the ice. However, a unified data processing technique to reliably and accurately determine sea ice thickness and snow depth from this kind of data is still missing, and an unambiguous interpretation remains a challenge. Following the need to improve techniques for remotely measuring sea ice mass balance, an international IMB working group has recently been established. The main goals are 1) to coordinate IMB deployments, 2) to enhance current IMB data processing and -interpretation techniques, and 3) to provide standardized IMB data products to a broader community. Here we present first results from two different data processing algorithms, applied to selected IMB datasets from the Arctic and Antarctic. Their performance with regard to sea ice thickness and snow depth retrieval is evaluated, and an uncertainty is determined. Although several challenges and caveats in IMB data processing and -interpretation are found, such datasets bear great potential and yield plenty of useful information about sea ice properties and processes. It is planned to include many more algorithms from contributors within the working group, and we explicitly invite
Reproducing impact ionization mass spectra of E and F ring ice grains at different impact speeds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klenner, F.; Reviol, R.; Postberg, F.
2017-09-01
As impact speeds of E and F ring ice grains impinging onto the target of impact ionization mass spectrometers in space can vary greatly, the resulting cationic or anionic mass spectra can have very different appearances. The mass spectra can be accurately reproduced with an analog experimental setup IR-FL-MALDI-ToF-MS (Infrared Free Liquid Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption and Ionization Time of Flight Mass Spectrometry). We compare mass spectra of E and F ring ice grains taken by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer (CDA) onboard Cassini recorded at different impact speeds with our analog spectra and prove the capability of the analog experiment.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Gardner, A. S.; Lang, C.; Miller, C. E.; van den Broeke, M. R.
2016-12-01
How Greenland ice flow may respond to future increases in surface runoff and to increases in the frequency of extreme melt events is unclear, as it requires detailed comprehension of Greenland surface climate and the ice sheet's sensitivity to associated uncertainties. With established uncertainty quantification tools run within the framework of Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), we conduct decadal-scale forward modeling experiments to 1) quantify the spatial resolution needed to effectively force distinct components of the surface radiation budget, and subsequently surface mass balance (SMB), in various regions of the ice sheet and 2) determine the dynamic response of Greenland ice flow to variations in components of the net radiation budget. The Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) software is a column surface model (1-D) that has recently been embedded as a module within ISSM. Using the ISSM-GEMB framework, we perform sensitivity analyses to determine how perturbations in various components of the surface radiation budget affect model output; these model experiments allow us predict where and on what spatial scale the ice sheet is likely to dynamically respond to changes in these parameters. Preliminary results suggest that SMB should be forced at at least a resolution of 23 km to properly capture dynamic ice response. In addition, Monte-Carlo style sampling analyses reveals that the areas with the largest uncertainty in mass flux are located near the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), upstream of major outlet glaciers in the North and West of the ice sheet. Sensitivity analysis indicates that these areas are also the most vulnerable on the ice sheet to persistent, far-field shifts in SMB, suggesting that continued warming, and upstream shift in the ELA, are likely to result in increased velocities, and consequentially SMB-induced thinning upstream of major outlet glaciers. Here, we extend our investigation to consider various components of the surface radiation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe
2017-12-01
The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.
Greenland Ice Sheet: High-Elevation Balance and Peripheral Thinning.
Krabill; Abdalati; Frederick; Manizade; Martin; Sonntag; Swift; Thomas; Wright; Yungel
2000-07-21
Aircraft laser-altimeter surveys over northern Greenland in 1994 and 1999 have been coupled with previously reported data from southern Greenland to analyze the recent mass-balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Above 2000 meters elevation, the ice sheet is in balance on average but has some regions of local thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations, with rates exceeding 1 meter per year close to the coast. Interpolation of our results between flight lines indicates a net loss of about 51 cubic kilometers of ice per year from the entire ice sheet, sufficient to raise sea level by 0.13 millimeter per year-approximately 7% of the observed rise.
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir
2018-04-01
Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.
A Range Correction for Icesat and Its Potential Impact on Ice-sheet Mass Balance Studies
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Borsa, A. A.; Moholdt, G.; Fricker, H. A.; Brunt, Kelly M.
2014-01-01
We report on a previously undocumented range error in NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) that degrades elevation precision and introduces a small but significant elevation trend over the ICESat mission period. This range error (the Gaussian-Centroid or 'G-C'offset) varies on a shot-to-shot basis and exhibits increasing scatter when laser transmit energies fall below 20 mJ. Although the G-C offset is uncorrelated over periods less than1 day, it evolves over the life of each of ICESat's three lasers in a series of ramps and jumps that give rise to spurious elevation trends of -0.92 to -1.90 cm yr(exp -1), depending on the time period considered. Using ICESat data over the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves we show that (1) the G-C offset introduces significant biases in ice-shelf mass balance estimates, and (2) the mass balance bias can vary between regions because of different temporal samplings of ICESat.We can reproduce the effect of the G-C offset over these two ice shelves by fitting trends to sample-weighted mean G-C offsets for each campaign, suggesting that it may not be necessary to fully repeat earlier ICESat studies to determine the impact of the G-C offset on ice-sheet mass balance estimates.
Submarine melt rates under Greenland's ice tongues
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilson, Nat; Straneo, Fiametta; Heimbach, Patrick; Cenedese, Claudia
2017-04-01
The few remaining ice tongues (ice-shelf like extensions) of Greenland's glaciers are undergoing rapid changes with potential implications for the stability of the ice sheet. Submarine melting is recognized as a major contributor to mass loss, yet the magnitude and spatial distribution of melt are poorly known or understood. Here, we use high resolution satellite imagery to infer the magnitude and spatial variability of melt rates under Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues: Ryder Glacier, Petermann Glacier and Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier). We find that submarine plus aerial melt approximately balance the ice flux from the grounded ice sheet for the first two while at Nioghalvfjerdsbræ the total melt flux exceeds the inflow of ice indicating thinning of the ice tongue. We also show that melt rates under the ice tongues vary considerably, exceeding 60 m yr-1 near the grounding zone and decaying rapidly downstream. Channels, likely originating from upstream subglacial channels, give rise to large melt variations across the ice tongues. Using derived melt rates, we test simplified melt parameterizations appropriate for ice sheet models and find the best agreement with those that incorporate ice tongue geometry in the form of depth and slope.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.
2013-06-01
The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winebrenner, D. P.; Kintner, P. M. S.; MacGregor, J. A.
2017-12-01
Over deep Antarctic subglacial lakes, spatially varying ice thickness and the pressure-dependent melting point of ice result in areas of melting and accretion at the ice-water interface, i.e., the lake lid. These ice mass fluxes drive lake circulation and, because basal Antarctic ice contains air-clathrate, affect the input of oxygen to the lake, with implications for subglacial life. Inferences of melting and accretion from radar-layer tracking and geodesy are limited in spatial coverage and resolution. Here we develop a new method to estimate rates of accretion, melting, and the resulting oxygen input at a lake lid, using airborne radar data over Lake Vostok together with ice-temperature and chemistry data from the Vostok ice core. Because the lake lid is a coherent reflector of known reflectivity (at our radar frequency), we can infer depth-averaged radiowave attenuation in the ice, with spatial resolution 1 km along flight lines. Spatial variation in attenuation depends mostly on variation in ice temperature near the lid, which in turn varies strongly with ice mass flux at the lid. We model ice temperature versus depth with ice mass flux as a parameter, thus linking that flux to (observed) depth-averaged attenuation. The resulting map of melt- and accretion-rates independently reproduces features known from earlier studies, but now covers the entire lid. We find that accretion is dominant when integrated over the lid, with an ice imbalance of 0.05 to 0.07 km3 a-1, which is robust against uncertainties.
Association between fat mass, lean mass, and bone loss: the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study.
Yang, S; Center, J R; Eisman, J A; Nguyen, T V
2015-04-01
Lower body fat mass is a risk factor for bone loss at lumbar spine in postmenopausal women, but not in men. Body lean mass and fat mass were not associated with femoral neck bone loss in either gender. Bone density and body mass are closely associated. Whole body lean mass (LM) and fat mass (FM) together account for approximately 95 % of body mass. Bone loss is associated with loss of body mass but which of the components of body mass (FM or LM) is related to bone loss is not well understood. Therefore, in this study, we sought to assess whether baseline FM or LM has predictive value for future relative rate of bone mineral density (BMD) changes (%/year). The present population-based cohort study was part of the ongoing Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (DOES). BMD, FM, and LM were measured with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (GE-LUNAR Corp, Madison, WI). BMD measurements were taken in approximately every 2 years between 2000 and 2010. We only included the participants with at least two BMD measurements at the femoral neck and lumbar spine. In total, 717 individuals (204 men and 513 women) aged 50 years or older were studied. Rate of bone loss at femoral neck and lumbar spine was faster in women than in men (all P < 0.01). In bivariable regression analysis, each 5 kg greater FM in women was associated with 0.4 %/year (P = 0.003) lower bone loss at lumbar spine. This magnitude of association remained virtually unchanged after adjusting for LM and/or other covariates (P = 0.03). After adjusting for covariates, variation of FM accounted for ∼1.5 % total variation in lumbar spine bone loss. However, there was no significant association between FM and change in femoral neck BMD in either men or women. Lower FM was an independent but modest risk factor for greater bone loss at the lumbar spine in women but not in men. If further studies confirm our findings, FM can help predict lumbar spine bone loss in women.
Earth Structure, Ice Mass Changes, and the Local Dynamic Geoid
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harig, C.; Simons, F. J.
2014-12-01
Spherical Slepian localization functions are a useful method for studying regional mass changes observed by satellite gravimetry. By projecting data onto a sparse basis set, the local field can be estimated more easily than with the full spherical harmonic basis. We have used this method previously to estimate the ice mass change in Greenland from GRACE data, and it can also be applied to other planetary problems such as global magnetic fields. Earth's static geoid, in contrast to the time-variable field, is in large part related to the internal density and rheological structure of the Earth. Past studies have used dynamic geoid kernels to relate this density structure and the internal deformation it induces to the surface geopotential at large scales. These now classical studies of the eighties and nineties were able to estimate the mantle's radial rheological profile, placing constraints on the ratio between upper and lower mantle viscosity. By combining these two methods, spherical Slepian localization and dynamic geoid kernels, we have created local dynamic geoid kernels which are sensitive only to density variations within an area of interest. With these kernels we can estimate the approximate local radial rheological structure that best explains the locally observed geoid on a regional basis. First-order differences of the regional mantle viscosity structure are accessible to this technique. In this contribution we present our latest, as yet unpublished results on the geographical and temporal pattern of ice mass changes in Antarctica over the past decade, and we introduce a new approach to extract regional information about the internal structure of the Earth from the static global gravity field. Both sets of results are linked in terms of the relevant physics, but also in being developed from the marriage of Slepian functions and geoid kernels. We make predictions on the utility of our approach to derive fully three-dimensional rheological Earth models, to
Ocean-Forced Ice-Shelf Thinning in a Synchronously Coupled Ice-Ocean Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jordan, James R.; Holland, Paul R.; Goldberg, Dan; Snow, Kate; Arthern, Robert; Campin, Jean-Michel; Heimbach, Patrick; Jenkins, Adrian
2018-02-01
The first fully synchronous, coupled ice shelf-ocean model with a fixed grounding line and imposed upstream ice velocity has been developed using the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model). Unlike previous, asynchronous, approaches to coupled modeling our approach is fully conservative of heat, salt, and mass. Synchronous coupling is achieved by continuously updating the ice-shelf thickness on the ocean time step. By simulating an idealized, warm-water ice shelf we show how raising the pycnocline leads to a reduction in both ice-shelf mass and back stress, and hence buttressing. Coupled runs show the formation of a western boundary channel in the ice-shelf base due to increased melting on the western boundary due to Coriolis enhanced flow. Eastern boundary ice thickening is also observed. This is not the case when using a simple depth-dependent parameterized melt, as the ice shelf has relatively thinner sides and a thicker central "bulge" for a given ice-shelf mass. Ice-shelf geometry arising from the parameterized melt rate tends to underestimate backstress (and therefore buttressing) for a given ice-shelf mass due to a thinner ice shelf at the boundaries when compared to coupled model simulations.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui
2005-01-01
Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. For the first time, the dH/dt values are adjusted for changes in surface elevation resulting from temperature-driven variations in the rate of fun compaction. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 plus or minus 2 Gta(sup -1) below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 plus or minus 2 Gt a(sup -1)above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11 plus or minus 3 Gt a(sup -1); -0.03 mm a(sup -1) SLE (sea level equivalent)). The ice sheet in West Antarctica (WA) is losing mass (-47 (dot) 4 GT a(sup -1) and the ice sheet in East Antarctica (EA) shows a small mass gain (+16 plus or minus 11 Gt a(sup -1) for a combined net change of -31 plus or minus 12 Gt a(sup -1) (+0.08 mm a(sup -1) SLE)). The contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level is +0.05 plus or minus 0.03 mm a(sup -1). The Antarctic ice shelves show corresponding mass changes of -95 (dot) 11 Gt a(sup -1) in WA and +142 plus or minus 10 Gt a(sup -1) in EA. Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. The marked thinnings in the Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier basins of WA and the Totten Glacier basin in EA are probably ice-dynamic responses to long-term climate change and perhaps past removal of their adjacent ice shelves. The ice growth in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and parts of EA may be due to increasing precipitation during the last century.
Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.
2017-12-01
Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.
Ice Core Records of Recent Northwest Greenland Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Osterberg, E. C.; Wong, G. J.; Ferris, D.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.; Hawley, R. L.
2014-12-01
Meteorological station data from NW Greenland indicate a 3oC temperature rise since 1990, with most of the warming occurring in fall and winter. According to remote sensing data, the NW Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and coastal ice caps are responding with ice mass loss and margin retreat, but the cryosphere's response to previous climate variability is poorly constrained in this region. We are developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate change and cryospheric response in NW Greenland to improve projections of future ice loss and sea level rise in a warming climate. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 21 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317o N, 63.1467o W, 1685 m el.) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938o N, 67.671o W, 1273 m el.) in 2011, 2012 and 2014. The 2Barrel ice core record has statistically significant relationships with regional spring and fall Baffin Bay sea ice extent, summertime temperature, and annual precipitation. Here we evaluate relationships between the 2014 North Ice Cap firn core glaciochemical record and climate variability from regional instrumental stations and reanalysis datasets. We compare the coastal North Ice Cap record to more inland records from 2Barrel, Camp Century and NEEM to evaluate spatial and elevational gradients in recent NW Greenland climate change.
Pulsation, Mass Loss and the Upper Mass Limit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klapp, J.; Corona-Galindo, M. G.
1990-11-01
RESUMEN. La existencia de estrellas con masas en exceso de 100 M0 ha sido cuestionada por mucho tiempo. Lfmites superiores para la masa de 100 M0 han sido obtenidos de teorfas de pulsaci6n y formaci6n estelar. En este trabajo nosotros primero investigamos la estabilidad radial de estrellas masivas utilizando la aproximaci6n clasica cuasiadiabatica de Ledoux, la aproximaci6n cuasiadiabatica de Castor y un calculo completamente no-adiabatico. Hemos encontrado que los tres metodos de calculo dan resultados similares siempre y cuando una pequefia regi6n de las capas externas de la estrella sea despreciada para la aproximaci6n clasica. La masa crftica para estabilidad de estrellas masivas ha sido encontrada en acuerdo a trabajos anteriores. Explicamos Ia discrepancia entre este y trabajos anteriores por uno de los autores. Discunmos calculos no-lineales y perdida de masa con respecto a) lfmite superior de masa. The existence of stars with masses in excess of 100 M0 has been questioned for a very long time. Upper mass limits of 100 Me have been obtained from pulsation and star formation theories. In this work we first investigate the radial stability of massive stars using the classical Ledoux's quasiadiabatic approximation. the Castor quasiadiabatic approximation and a fully nonadiabatic calculation. We have found that the three methods of calculation give similar results provided that a small region in outer layers of the star be neglected for the classical approximation. The critical mass for stability of massive stars is found to be in agreement with previous work. We explain the reason for the discrepancy between this and previous work by one of the authors. We discuss non-linear calculations and mass loss with regard to the upper mass limit. Key words: STARS-MASS FUNCTION - STARS-MASS LOSS - STARS-PULSATION
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Katrien Els Decin, Leen
2015-08-01
Over much of the initial mass function, stars lose a significant fraction of their mass through a stellar wind during the late stages of their evolution when being a (super)giant star. As of today, we can not yet predict the mass-loss rate during the (super)giant phase for a given star with specific stellar parameters from first principles. This uncertainty directly impacts the accuracy of current stellar evolution and population synthesis models that predict the enrichment of the interstellar medium by these stellar winds. Efforts to establish the link between the initial physical and chemical conditions at stellar birth and the mass-loss rate during the (super)giant phase have proceeded on two separate tracks: (1) more detailed studies of the chemical and morpho-kinematical structure of the stellar winds of (super)giant stars in our own Milky Way by virtue of the proximity, and (2) large scale and statistical studies of a (large) sample of stars in other galaxies (such as the LMC and SMC) and globular clusters eliminating the uncertainty on the distance estimate and providing insight into the dependence of the mass-loss rate on the metallicity. In this review, I will present recent results of both tracks, will show how recent measurements confirm (some) theoretical predictions, but also how results from the first track admonish of common misconceptions inherent in the often more simplified analysis used to analyse the large samples from track 2.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zekollari, Harry; Huybrechts, Philippe; Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.
2017-03-01
In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow-mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-day runoff-retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under 1961-1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB-elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005-2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice and resultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior is projected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high- warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear around AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projected
Wave-Ice and Air-Ice-Ocean Interaction During the Chukchi Sea Ice Edge Advance
2014-09-30
During cruise CU-B UAF UW Airborne expendable Ice Buoy (AXIB) Ahead, at and inside ice edge Surface meteorology T, SLP ~1 year CU-B UW...Balance (IMB) buoys Inside ice edge w/ >50cm thickness Ice mass balance T in snow-ice-ocean, T, SLP at surface ~1 year WHOI CRREL (SeaState DRI
On the Formation of Rifts in Ice Shelves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sayag, R.; Worster, G.
2017-12-01
Ice calving accounts for significant part in the mass loss of present ice sheets. Several processes could lead to calving, among them is the formation of rifts near the fronts of ice shelves. Here we combine laboratory-scale experiments of ice sheets together with theoretical modeling to investigate the formation of rifts in ice shelves. We model the deformation of ice with a thin viscous film that is driven axisymmetrically by buoyancy. When the viscous fluid intrudes a bath of an inviscid fluid that represents the ocean, the circular symmetry of the front breaks up into a set of tongues with a characteristic wavelength that coarsens over time, a pattern that is reminiscent of ice rifts. Theoretically, we model the formation of rifts as a hydrodynamic instability of powerlaw fluid. Our model demonstrates the formation of rifts and the coarsening of the characteristic wavelength, and predicts coarsening transition times that are consistent with our experimental measurements.
Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence
Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey
2010-01-01
On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...
Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.
2017-12-01
In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coutris, Pierre; Leroy, Delphine; Fontaine, Emmanuel; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Strapp, J. Walter
2016-04-01
A new method to retrieve cloud water content from in-situ measured 2D particle images from optical array probes (OAP) is presented. With the overall objective to build a statistical model of crystals' mass as a function of their size, environmental temperature and crystal microphysical history, this study presents the methodology to retrieve the mass of crystals sorted by size from 2D images using a numerical optimization approach. The methodology is validated using two datasets of in-situ measurements gathered during two airborne field campaigns held in Darwin, Australia (2014), and Cayenne, France (2015), in the frame of the High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) / High Ice Water Content (HIWC) projects. During these campaigns, a Falcon F-20 research aircraft equipped with state-of-the art microphysical instrumentation sampled numerous mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in order to study dynamical and microphysical properties and processes of high ice water content areas. Experimentally, an isokinetic evaporator probe, referred to as IKP-2, provides a reference measurement of the total water content (TWC) which equals ice water content, (IWC) when (supercooled) liquid water is absent. Two optical array probes, namely 2D-S and PIP, produce 2D images of individual crystals ranging from 50 μm to 12840 μm from which particle size distributions (PSD) are derived. Mathematically, the problem is formulated as an inverse problem in which the crystals' mass is assumed constant over a size class and is computed for each size class from IWC and PSD data: PSD.m = IW C This problem is solved using numerical optimization technique in which an objective function is minimized. The objective function is defined as follows: 2 J(m)=∥P SD.m - IW C ∥ + λ.R (m) where the regularization parameter λ and the regularization function R(m) are tuned based on data characteristics. The method is implemented in two steps. First, the method is developed on synthetic crystal populations in
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben
2017-04-01
Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.
Ice shelf thickness change from 2010 to 2017
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hogg, A.; Shepherd, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.
2017-12-01
Floating ice shelves fringe 74 % of Antarctica's coastline, providing a direct link between the ice sheet and the surrounding oceans. Over the last 25 years, ice shelves have retreated, thinned, and collapsed catastrophically. While change in the mass of floating ice shelves has only a modest steric impact on the rate of sea-level rise, their loss can affect the mass balance of the grounded ice-sheet by influencing the rate of ice flow inland, due to the buttressing effect. Here we use CryoSat-2 altimetry data to map the detailed pattern of ice shelf thickness change in Antarctica. We exploit the dense spatial sampling and repeat coverage provided by the CryoSat-2 synthetic aperture radar interferometric mode (SARIn) to investigate data acquired between 2010 to the present day. We find that ice shelf thinning rates can exhibit large fluctuations over short time periods, and that the improved spatial resolution of CryoSat-2 enables us to resolve the spatial pattern of thinning with ever greater detail in Antarctica. In the Amundsen Sea, ice shelves at the terminus of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers have thinned at rates in excess of 5 meters per year for more than two decades. We observe the highest rates of basal melting near to the ice sheet grounding line, reinforcing the importance of high resolution datasets. On the Antarctic Peninsula, in contrast to the 3.8 m per decade of thinning observed since 1992, we measure an increase in the surface elevation of the Larsen-C Ice-Shelf during the CryoSat-2 period.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.
2013-07-01
We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.
Glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland
Sharp, Marin; Wolken, G.; Burgess, D.; Cogley, J.G.; Copland, L.; Thomson, L.; Arendt, A.; Wouters, B.; Kohler, J.; Andreassen, L.M.; O'Neel, Shad; Pelto, M.
2015-01-01
Mountain glaciers and ice caps cover an area of over 400 000 km2 in the Arctic, and are a major influence on global sea level (Gardner et al. 2011, 2013; Jacob et al. 2012). They gain mass by snow accumulation and lose mass by meltwater runoff. Where they terminate in water (ocean or lake), they also lose mass by iceberg calving. The climatic mass balance (Bclim, the difference between annual snow accumulation and annual meltwater runoff) is a widely used index of how glaciers respond to climate variability and change. The total mass balance (ΔM) is defined as the difference between annual snow accumulation and annual mass losses (by iceberg calving plus runoff).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.; Pattyn, F.; Hubbard, A.; Box, J. E.
2010-12-01
Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its ~17 km wide and ~ 60 km long floating ice-shelf is experiencing high rates of bottom melting. The recent partial disintegration of its shelf (in August 2010) presents a natural experiment to investigate the dynamic response of the ice sheet to its shelf retreat. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as shelf disintegration, bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration and surface run off to the mass balance of Petermann Glacier and assess its stability. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on response of Petermann Glacier to its recent massive ice loss.
A model on CME/Flare initiation: Loss of Equilibrium caused by mass loss of quiescent prominences
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miley, George; Chon Nam, Sok; Kim, Mun Song; Kim, Jik Su
2015-08-01
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) model should give an answer to enough energy storage for giant bulk plasma into interplanetary space to escape against the sun’s gravitation and its explosive eruption. Advocates of ‘Mass Loading’ model (e.g. Low, B. 1996, SP, 167, 217) suggested a simple mechanism of CME initiation, the loss of mass from a prominence anchoring magnetic flux rope, but they did not associate the mass loss with the loss of equilibrium. The catastrophic loss of equilibrium model is considered as to be a prospective CME/Flare model to explain sudden eruption of magnetic flux systems. Isenberg, P. A., et al (1993, ApJ, 417, 368)developed ideal magnetohydrodynamic theory of the magnetic flux rope to show occurrence of catastrophic loss of equilibrium according to increasing magnetic flux transported into corona.We begin with extending their study including gravity on prominence’s material to obtain equilibrium curves in case of given mass parameters, which are the strengths of the gravitational force compared with the characteristic magnetic force. Furthermore, we study quasi-static evolution of the system including massive prominence flux rope and current sheet below it to obtain equilibrium curves of prominence’s height according to decreasing mass parameter in a properly fixed magnetic environment. The curves show equilibrium loss behaviors to imply that mass loss result in equilibrium loss. Released fractions of magnetic energy are greater than corresponding zero-mass case. This eruption mechanism is expected to be able to apply to the eruptions of quiescent prominences, which is located in relatively weak magnetic environment with 105 km of scale length and 10G of photospheric magnetic field.
Normalized vertical ice mass flux profiles from vertically pointing 8-mm-wavelength Doppler radar
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Orr, Brad W.; Kropfli, Robert A.
1993-01-01
During the FIRE 2 (First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment) project, NOAA's Wave Propagation Laboratory (WPL) operated its 8-mm wavelength Doppler radar extensively in the vertically pointing mode. This allowed for the calculation of a number of important cirrus cloud parameters, including cloud boundary statistics, cloud particle characteristic sizes and concentrations, and ice mass content (imc). The flux of imc, or, alternatively, ice mass flux (imf), is also an important parameter of a cirrus cloud system. Ice mass flux is important in the vertical redistribution of water substance and thus, in part, determines the cloud evolution. It is important for the development of cloud parameterizations to be able to define the essential physical characteristics of large populations of clouds in the simplest possible way. One method would be to normalize profiles of observed cloud properties, such as those mentioned above, in ways similar to those used in the convective boundary layer. The height then scales from 0.0 at cloud base to 1.0 at cloud top, and the measured cloud parameter scales by its maximum value so that all normalized profiles have 1.0 as their maximum value. The goal is that there will be a 'universal' shape to profiles of the normalized data. This idea was applied to estimates of imf calculated from data obtained by the WPL cloud radar during FIRE II. Other quantities such as median particle diameter, concentration, and ice mass content can also be estimated with this radar, and we expect to also examine normalized profiles of these quantities in time for the 1993 FIRE II meeting.
Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.
Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael
2013-02-26
Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.
Polar Ice Caps: a Canary for the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Honsaker, W.; Lowell, T. V.; Sagredo, E.; Kelly, M. A.; Hall, B. L.
2010-12-01
Ice caps are glacier masses that are highly sensitive to climate change. Because of their hypsometry they can have a binary state. When relatively slight changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) either intersect or rise above the land the ice can become established or disappear. Thus these upland ice masses have a fast response time. Here we consider a way to extract the ELA signal from independent ice caps adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. It may be that these ice caps are sensitive trackers of climate change that also impact the ice sheet margin. One example is the Istorvet Ice Cap located in Liverpool Land, East Greenland (70.881°N, 22.156°W). The ice cap topography and the underlying bedrock surface dips to the north, with peak elevation of the current ice ranging in elevation from 1050 to 745 m.a.s.l. On the eastern side of the ice mass the outlet glaciers extending down to sea level. The western margin has several small lobes in topographic depressions, with the margin reaching down to 300 m.a.s.l. Topographic highs separate the ice cap into at least 5 main catchments, each having a pair of outlet lobes toward either side of the ice cap. Because of the regional bedrock slope each catchment has its own elevation range. Therefore, as the ELA changes it is possible for some catchments of the ice cap to experience positive mass balance while others have a negative balance. Based on weather observations we estimate the present day ELA to be ~1000 m.a.s.l, meaning mass balance is negative for the majority of the ice cap. By tracking glacier presence/absence in these different catchments, we can reconstruct small changes in the ELA. Another example is the High Ice Cap (informal name) in Milne Land (70.903°N, 25.626°W, 1080 m), East Greenland. Here at least 4 unconformities in ice layers found near the southern margin of the ice cap record changing intervals of accumulation and ablation. Therefore, this location may also be sensitive to slight
Antarctic ice discharge due to warm water intrusion into shelf cavities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Winkelmann, R.; Reese, R.; Albrecht, T.; Mengel, M.; Asay-Davis, X.
2017-12-01
Ocean-induced melting below ice shelves is the dominant driver for mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet at present. Observations show that many Antarctic ice shelves are thinning which reduces their buttressing potential and can lead to increased ice discharge from the glaciers upstream. Melt rates from Antarctic ice shelves are determined by the temperature and salinity of the ambient ocean. In many parts, ice shelves are shielded by clearly defined density fronts which keep relatively warm Northern water from entering the cavity underneath the ice shelves. Projections show that a redirection of coastal currents might allow these warmer waters to intrude into ice shelf cavities, for instance in the Weddell Sea, and thereby cause a strong increase in sub-shelf melt rates. Using the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (PICO), we assess how such a change would influence the dynamic ice loss from Antarctica. PICO is implemented as part of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and mimics the vertical overturning circulation in ice-shelf cavities. The model is capable of capturing the wide range of melt rates currently observed for Antarctic ice shelves and reproduces the typical pattern of comparably high melting near the grounding line and lower melting or refreezing towards the calving front. Based on regional observations of ocean temperatures, we use PISM-PICO to estimate an upper limit for ice discharge resulting from the potential erosion of ocean fronts around Antarctica.
Distinguishing neutrino mass hierarchies using dark matter annihilation signals at IceCube
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Allahverdi, Rouzbeh; Knockel, Bradley; Dutta, Bhaskar
2015-12-01
We explore the possibility of distinguishing neutrino mass hierarchies through the neutrino signal from dark matter annihilation at neutrino telescopes. We consider a simple extension of the standard model where the neutrino masses and mixing angles are obtained via the type-II seesaw mechanism as an explicit example. We show that future extensions of IceCube neutrino telescope may detect the neutrino signal from DM annihilation at the Galactic Center and inside the Sun, and differentiate between the normal and inverted mass hierarchies, in this model.
Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pattyn, Frank
2016-04-01
Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher
Investigating cosmic rays and air shower physics with IceCube/IceTop
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dembinski, Hans
2017-06-01
IceCube is a cubic-kilometer detector in the deep ice at South Pole. Its square-kilometer surface array, IceTop, is located at 2800 m altitude. IceTop is large and dense enough to cover the cosmic-ray energy spectrum from PeV to EeV energies with a remarkably small systematic uncertainty, thanks to being close to the shower maximum. The experiment offers new insights into hadronic physics of air showers by observing three components: the electromagnetic signal at the surface, GeV muons in the periphery of the showers, and TeV muons in the deep ice. The cosmic-ray flux is measured with the surface signal. The mass composition is extracted from the energy loss of TeV muons observed in the deep ice in coincidence with signals at the surface. The muon lateral distribution is obtained from GeV muons identified in surface signals in the periphery of the shower. The energy spectrum of the most energetic TeV muons is also under study, as well as special events with laterally separated TeV muon tracks which originate from high-pT TeV muons. A combination of all these measurements opens the possibility to perform powerful new tests of hadronic interaction models used to simulate air showers. The latest results will be reviewed from this perspective.
Changes in ice dynamics along the northern Antarctic Peninsula
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seehaus, T.; Braun, M.; Cook, A.; Marinsek, S.
2016-12-01
The climatic conditions along the Antarctic Peninsula have undergone considerable changes during the last 50 years. Numerous ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula retreated, started to break-up or disintegrated. The loss of the buttressing effect caused tributary glaciers to accelerate with increasing ice discharge along the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim is to study the reaction of glaciers at the northern Antarctic Peninsula to the changing climatic conditions and the readjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration, as well as to better quantify the ice mass loss and its temporal changes.We analysed time series of various SAR satellite sensors to detect changes in ice flow speed and surface elevation. Intensity feature tracking techniques were applied on data stacks from different SAR satellites over the last 20 years to infer changes in glacier surface velocities. High resolution bi-static TanDEM-X data was used to derive digital elevation models by differential SAR interferometry. In combination with ASTER and SPOT stereo images, changes in surface elevations were determined. Altimeter data from ICESat, CryoSat-2 and NASA operation IceBridge ATM were used for vertical referencing and quality assessment of the digital elevation models. Along the west coast of the northern Antarctic Peninsula an increase in flow speeds by 40% between 1992 and 2014 was observed, whereas glaciers on the east side (north of former Prince-Gustav Ice Shelf) showed a strong deceleration. In total an ice discharge of 17.93±6.22 Gt/a was estimated for 74 glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula north of 65°S. Most of the former ice shelf tributaries showed similar reactions to ice shelf disintegration. At the Sjögren-Inlet a total ice mass loss of -37.5±8.2 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 20.9±5.2 Gt were found in the period 1993-2014. The average surface lowering rate in the period 2012-2014 amounts to -2.2 m/a. At Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chevooruvalappil Chandran, B.; Pittana, M.; Haas, C.
2015-12-01
Snow on sea ice is a critical and complex factor influencing sea ice processes. Deep snow with a high albedo and low thermal conductivity inhibits ice growth in winter and minimizes ice loss in summer. Very shallow or absent snow promotes ice growth in winter and ice loss in summer. The timing of snow ablation critically impacts summer sea ice mass balance. Here we assess the accuracy of various snow on sea ice data products from reanalysis and modeling comparing them with in situ measurements. The latter are based on the Warren et al. (1999) monthly climatology derived from snow ruler measurements between 1954-1991, and on daily snow depth retrievals from few drifting ice mass balance buoys (IMB) with sufficiently long observations spanning the summer season. These were compared with snow depth data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP), the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4), and the Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2). Results are quite variable in different years and regions. However, there is often good agreement between CanESM2 and IMB snow depth during the winter accumulation and spring melt periods. Regional analyses show that over the western Arctic covered primarily with multiyear ice NCEP snow depths are in good agreement with the Warren climatology while CCSM4 overestimates snow depth. However, in the Eastern Arctic which is dominated by first-year ice the opposite behavior is observed. Compared to the Warren climatology CanESM2 underestimates snow depth in all regions. Differences between different snow depth products are as large as 10 to 20 cm, with large consequences for the sea ice mass balance. However, it is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis and model snow depths due to a lack of extensive, continuous in situ measurements.
Mass loss at Saturn: The contribution of plasmoids
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kivelson, M.; Jia, X.; Jackman, C. M.
2017-12-01
Jia and Kivelson (2012) showed that an MHD simulation of Saturn's magnetosphere including rotating field-aligned currents generates a plasmoid on each rotation period. For southern summer conditions, plasmoids form through reconnection in the tail near midnight at a rotation phase for which the core magnetic field perturbation points towards the planet in the LT sector of the release. After release, they move northward and outward in the post midnight sector. Mass loss is found to be dominated by plasmoid release, and to compare closely to the mass source rate; much of the outward mass flux is found in the 0300-0900 LT sector. However, studies of plasmoid signatures in Cassini magnetometer data conclude that releases do not occur each rotation period and infer mass loss rates far smaller than Saturn's mass source rate (Jackman et al., 2014). Studies based on plasma data also infer loss rates smaller than the source rate from Enceladus (Thomsen, 2013). The simulation suggests that plasmoid occurrence frequency depends strongly on local time and latitude. Indeed, in regions near the equator and near midnight, where plasmoids are present in the simulation, the occurrence frequency of plasmoid releases inferred from magnetometer data is higher than elsewhere (Jackman et al., 2016; Smith et al., 2016), with occurrence probability peaking at the phase predicted by the simulation. We consider how the observational limitations should be modified to establish mass loss rates and plasmoid occurrence frequency.
False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian
2016-04-01
Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.
Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.
2015-12-01
Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.
Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E
2011-05-31
We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.
Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.
2011-01-01
We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.
2013-12-01
The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution
Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Condron, Alan
The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less
Dusty Mass Loss from Galactic Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sargent, Benjamin A.; Srinivasan, Sundar; Meixner, Margaret; Kastner, Joel H.
2016-06-01
We are probing how mass loss from Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars depends upon their metallicity. Asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are evolved stars that eject large parts of their mass in outflows of dust and gas in the final stages of their lives. Our previous studies focused on mass loss from AGB stars in lower metallicity galaxies: the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). In our present study, we analyze AGB star mass loss in the Galaxy, with special attention to the Bulge, to investigate how mass loss differs in an overall higher metallicity environment. We construct radiative transfer models of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of stars in the Galaxy identified as AGB stars from infrared and optical surveys. Our Magellanic Cloud studies found that the AGB stars with the highest mass loss rates tended to have outflows with carbon-rich dust, and that overall more carbon-rich (C-rich) dust than oxygen-rich (O-rich) was produced by AGB stars in both LMC and SMC. Our radiative transfer models have enabled us to determine reliably the dust chemistry of the AGB star from the best-fit model. For our Galactic sample, we are investigating both the dust chemistries of the AGB stars and their mass-loss rates, to compare the balance of C-rich dust to O-rich dust between the Galactic bulge and the Magellanic Clouds. We are also constructing detailed dust opacity models of AGB stars in the Galaxy for which we have infrared spectra; e.g., from the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph (IRS). This detailed dust modeling of spectra informs our choice of dust properties to use in radiative transfer modeling of SEDs of Galactic AGB stars. BAS acknowledges funding from NASA ADAP grant NNX15AF15G.
State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian
2016-04-01
The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.
2015-12-01
We present a new, complete ice thickness change reconstruction of the NE sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1978-2014, partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics. Elevation changes are computed from all available stereoscopic DEMs, and laser altimetry data (ICESat, ATM, LVIS). Surface Mass Balance and firn-compaction estimates are from RACMO2.3. Originating nearly at the divide of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), the dynamically active North East Ice Stream (NEGIS) is capable of rapidly transmitting ice-marginal forcing far inland. Thus, NEGIS provides a possible mechanism for a rapid drawdown of ice from the ice sheet interior as marginal warming, thinning and retreat continues. Our altimetry record shows accelerating dynamic thinning of Zachariæ Isstrom, initially limited to the deepest part of the fjord near the calving front (1978-2000) and then extending at least 75 km inland. At the same time, changes over the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (N79) Glacier are negligible. We also detect localized large dynamic changes at higher elevations on the ice sheet. These thickness changes, often occurring at the onset of fast flow, could indicate rapid variations of basal lubrication due to rerouting of subglacial drainage. We investigate the possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal pattern of ice sheet elevation changes using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This work build on our previous studies examining the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to key fields, including ice viscosity, basal drag. We assimilate the new altimetry record into ISSM to improve the reconstruction of basal friction and ice viscosity. Finally, airborne geophysical (gravity, magnetic) and ice-penetrating radar data is examined to identify the potential geologic controls on the ice thickness change pattern. Our study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness changes for the entire NEGIS drainage basin during
Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroeve, J. C.
2017-12-01
TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To
Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.
Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A
2017-01-05
Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.
IR-MALDESI MASS SPECTROMETRY IMAGING OF BIOLOGICAL TISSUE SECTIONS USING ICE AS A MATRIX
Robichaud, Guillaume; Barry, Jeremy A.; Muddiman, David C.
2014-01-01
Infrared Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption Electrospray Ionization (IR-MALDESI) Mass Spectrometry imaging of biological tissue sections using a layer of deposited ice as an energy absorbing matrix was investigated. Dynamics of plume ablation were first explored using a nanosecond exposure shadowgraphy system designed to simultaneously collect pictures of the plume with a camera and collect the FT-ICR mass spectrum corresponding to that same ablation event. Ablation of fresh tissue analyzed with and without using ice as a matrix were both compared using this technique. Effect of spot-to-spot distance, number of laser shots per pixel and tissue condition (matrix) on ion abundance was also investigated for 50 µm thick tissue sections. Finally, the statistical method called design of experiments was used to compare source parameters and determine the optimal conditions for IR-MALDESI of tissue sections using deposited ice as a matrix. With a better understanding of the fundamentals of ablation dynamics and a systematic approach to explore the experimental space, it was possible to improve ion abundance by nearly one order of magnitude. PMID:24385399
Study of elevation changes along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hvidegaard, S. M.; Sandberg, L.
2009-04-01
In recent years much research has focused on determining how the Greenland Ice Sheet is responding to the observed climate changes. There is wide agreement on the fact that the Ice Sheet is currently loosing mass, and studies have shown that the mass loss is found near the ice edge and that no significant changes are found in the central part of the Ice Sheet. As a part of European Space Agency's CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) running from 2004 to 2008, the National Space Institute (DTU Space) measured the elevations along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet. The elevation observations were carried out in 2004, 2006 and 2008 using airborne laser altimetry from a Twin Otter aircraft. The observed profile follows the old EGIG line (Expédition Glaciologique au Groenland, measured in the 1950's) situated between 69-71N, heading nearly east-west. This unique dataset gives the opportunity to study elevation changes along the profile crossing the ice sheet. With this work, we outline the observed elevation changes from the different zones of the ice sheet. We furthermore compare elevation changes based on coincident ICESat and airborne laser altimeter data.
High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution
Lecavalier, Benoit S.; Fisher, David A.; Milne, Glenn A.; Vinther, Bo M.; Tarasov, Lev; Lacelle, Denis; Main, Brittany; Zheng, James; Bourgeois, Jocelyne; Dyke, Arthur S.
2017-01-01
We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4–5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800–7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland. PMID:28512225
Near-Infrared Mass Loss Diagnostics for Massive Stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sonneborn, George; Bouret, J. C.
2010-01-01
Stellar wind mass loss is a key process which modifies surface abundances, luminosities, and other physical properties of hot, massive stars. Furthermore, mass loss has to be understood quantitatively in order to accurately describe and predict massive star evolution. Two urgent problems have been identified that challenge our understanding of line-driven winds, the so-called weak-wind problem and wind clumping. In both cases, mass-loss rates are drastically lower than theoretically expected (up to a factor 1001). Here we study how the expected spectroscopic capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), especially NIRSpec, could be used to significantly improve constraints on wind density structures (clumps) and deep-seated phenomena in stellar winds of massive stars, including OB, Wolf-Rayet and LBV stars. Since the IR continuum of objects with strong winds is formed in the wind, IR lines may sample different depths inside the wind than UV-optical lines and provide new information about the shape of the velocity field and clumping properties. One of the most important applications of IR line diagnostics will be the measurement of mass-loss rates in massive stars with very weak winds by means of the H I Bracket alpha line, which has been identified as one of the most promising diagnostics for this problem.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.
2016-01-01
The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates
Ice hockey lung – a case of mass nitrogen dioxide poisoning in the Czech Republic
Brat, Kristian; Merta, Zdenek; Plutinsky, Marek; Skrickova, Jana; Ing, Miroslav Stanek
2013-01-01
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a toxic gas, a product of combustion in malfunctioning ice-resurfacing machines. NO2 poisoning is rare but potentially lethal. The authors report a case of mass NO2 poisoning involving 15 amateur ice hockey players in the Czech Republic. All players were treated in the Department of Respiratory Diseases at Brno University Hospital in November 2010 – three as inpatients because they developed pneumonitis. All patients were followed-up until November 2011. Complete recovery in all but one patient was achieved by December 2010. None of the 15 patients developed asthma-like disease or chronic cough. Corticosteroids appeared to be useful in treatment. Electric-powered ice-resurfacing machines are preferable in indoor ice skating arenas. PMID:24032121
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bamber, J. L.; Enderlin, E. M.; Howat, I. M.; Wouters, B.; van den Broeke, M.
2015-12-01
Freshwater fluxes (FWF) from river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation for the pan Arctic seas are relatively well documented and prescribed in ocean GCMs. Fluxes from Greenland and Arctic glaciers and ice caps on the other hand are generally ignored, despite their potential impacts on ocean circulation and marine biology and growing evidence for changes to the hydrography of parts of the subpolar North Atlantic. In a previous study we determined the FWF from Greenland for the period 1958-2010 using a combination of observations and regional climate modeling. Here, we update the analysis with data from new satellite observations to extend the record both in space and time. The new FWF estimates cover the period 1958-2014 and include the Canadian, Russian and Norwegian Arctic (Svalbard) in addition to the contributions from Greenland. We combine satellite altimetry (including CryoSat 2) with grounding line flux data, regional climate modeling of surface mass balance and gravimetry to produce consistent estimates of solid ice and liquid FWF into the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. The total cumulative FWF anomaly from land ice mass loss started to increase significantly in the mid 1990s and now exceeds 5000 km^3, a value that is about half of the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s. The majority of the anomaly is entering two key areas of deep water overturning in the Labrador and Irminger Seas, at a rate that has been increasing steadily over the last ~20 years. Since the mid 2000s, however, the Canadian Arctic archipelago has been making a significant contribution to the FW anomaly entering Baffin Bay. Tracer experiments with eddy-permitting ocean GCMs suggest that the FW input from southern Greenland and the Canadian Arctic should accumulate in Baffin Bay with the potential to affect geostrophic circulation, stratification in the region and possibly the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We also examine the trajectory of
Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beitch, Marci J.
Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.
Geodetic glacier mass balancing on ice caps - inseparably connected to firn modelling?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saß, Björn L.; Sauter, Tobias; Seehaus, Thorsten; Braun, Matthias H.
2017-04-01
Observed melting of glaciers and ice caps in the polar regions contribute to the ongoing global sea level rise (SLR). A rising sea level and its consequences are one of the major challenges for coastal societies in the next decades to centuries. Gaining knowledge about the main drivers of SLR and bringing it together is one recent key-challenge for environmental science. The high arctic Svalbard archipelago faced a strong climatic change in the last decades, associated with a change in the cryosphere. Vestfonna, a major Arctic ice cap in the north east of Svalbard, harbors land and marine terminating glaciers, which expose a variability of behavior. We use high resolution remote sensing data from space-borne radar (TanDEM-X, TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1a), acquired between 2009 and 2015, to estimate glacier velocity and high accurate surface elevation changes. For DEM registration we use space-borne laser altimetry (ICESat) and an existing in-situ data archive (IPY Kinnvika). In order to separate individual glacier basin changes for a detailed mass balance study and for further SLR contribution estimates, we use glacier outlines from the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project. Remaining challenges of space-borne observations are the reduction of measurement uncertainties, in the case of Synthetic Aperture Radar most notably signal penetration into the glacier surface. Furthermore, in order to convert volume to mass change one has to use the density of the changed mass (conversion factor) and one has to account for the mass conservation processes in the firn package (firn compaction). Both, the conversion factor and the firn compaction are not (yet) measurable for extensive ice bodies. They have to be modelled by coupling point measurements and regional gridded climate data. Results indicate a slight interior thickening contrasted with wide spread thinning in the ablation zone of the marine terminating outlets. While one glacier system draining to the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hattermann, T.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Nøst, O. A.; Lilly, J. M.; Galton-Fenzi, B. K.
2014-10-01
Melting at the base of floating ice shelves is a dominant term in the overall Antarctic mass budget. This study applies a high-resolution regional ice shelf/ocean model, constrained by observations, to (i) quantify present basal mass loss at the Fimbul Ice Shelf (FIS); and (ii) investigate the oceanic mechanisms that govern the heat supply to ice shelves in the Eastern Weddell Sea. The simulations confirm the low melt rates suggested by observations and show that melting is primarily determined by the depth of the coastal thermocline, regulating deep ocean heat fluxes towards the ice. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of ice shelf area at different depths modulates the melting response to oceanic forcing, causing the existence of two distinct states of melting at the FIS. In the simulated present-day state, only small amounts of Modified Warm Deep Water enter the continental shelf, and ocean temperatures beneath the ice are close to the surface freezing point. The basal mass loss in this so-called state of "shallow melting" is mainly controlled by the seasonal inflow of solar-heated surface water affecting large areas of shallow ice in the upper part of the cavity. This is in contrast to a state of "deep melting", in which the thermocline rises above the shelf break depth, establishing a continuous inflow of Warm Deep Water towards the deep ice. The transition between the two states is found to be determined by a complex response of the Antarctic Slope Front overturning circulation to varying climate forcings. A proper representation of these frontal dynamics in climate models will therefore be crucial when assessing the evolution of ice shelf basal melting along this sector of Antarctica.
Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Pritchard, Hamish D; Arthern, Robert J; Vaughan, David G; Edwards, Laura A
2009-10-15
Many glaciers along the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are accelerating and, for this reason, contribute increasingly to global sea-level rise. Globally, ice losses contribute approximately 1.8 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8), but this could increase if the retreat of ice shelves and tidewater glaciers further enhances the loss of grounded ice or initiates the large-scale collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheets. Ice loss as a result of accelerated flow, known as dynamic thinning, is so poorly understood that its potential contribution to sea level over the twenty-first century remains unpredictable. Thinning on the ice-sheet scale has been monitored by using repeat satellite altimetry observations to track small changes in surface elevation, but previous sensors could not resolve most fast-flowing coastal glaciers. Here we report the use of high-resolution ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry to map change along the entire grounded margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. To isolate the dynamic signal, we compare rates of elevation change from both fast-flowing and slow-flowing ice with those expected from surface mass-balance fluctuations. We find that dynamic thinning of glaciers now reaches all latitudes in Greenland, has intensified on key Antarctic grounding lines, has endured for decades after ice-shelf collapse, penetrates far into the interior of each ice sheet and is spreading as ice shelves thin by ocean-driven melt. In Greenland, glaciers flowing faster than 100 m yr(-1) thinned at an average rate of 0.84 m yr(-1), and in the Amundsen Sea embayment of Antarctica, thinning exceeded 9.0 m yr(-1) for some glaciers. Our results show that the most profound changes in the ice sheets currently result from glacier dynamics at ocean margins.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yang, Rui, E-mail: ryang73@ustc.edu; Gudipati, Murthy S., E-mail: gudipati@jpl.nasa.gov
2014-03-14
In this work, we report for the first time successful analysis of organic aromatic analytes imbedded in D{sub 2}O ices by novel infrared (IR) laser ablation of a layered non-absorbing D{sub 2}O ice (spectator) containing the analytes and an ablation-active IR-absorbing H{sub 2}O ice layer (actor) without the analyte. With these studies we have opened up a new method for the in situ analysis of solids containing analytes when covered with an IR laser-absorbing layer that can be resonantly ablated. This soft ejection method takes advantage of the tenability of two-step infrared laser ablation and ultraviolet laser ionization mass spectrometry,more » previously demonstrated in this lab to study chemical reactions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in cryogenic ices. The IR laser pulse tuned to resonantly excite only the upper H{sub 2}O ice layer (actor) generates a shockwave upon impact. This shockwave penetrates the lower analyte-containing D{sub 2}O ice layer (spectator, a non-absorbing ice that cannot be ablated directly with the wavelength of the IR laser employed) and is reflected back, ejecting the contents of the D{sub 2}O layer into the vacuum where they are intersected by a UV laser for ionization and detection by a time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Thus, energy is transmitted from the laser-absorbing actor layer into the non-absorbing spectator layer resulting its ablation. We found that isotope cross-contamination between layers was negligible. We also did not see any evidence for thermal or collisional chemistry of PAH molecules with H{sub 2}O molecules in the shockwave. We call this “shockwave mediated surface resonance enhanced subsurface ablation” technique as “two-step laser ablation and ionization mass spectrometry of actor-spectator ice layers.” This method has its roots in the well-established MALDI (matrix assisted laser desorption and ionization) method. Our method offers more flexibility to optimize both the processes
Mass loss from hot, luminous stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burnley, Adam Warwick
A general enquiry into the physics of mass loss from hot, luminous stars is presented. Ha spectroscopy of 64 Galactic early-type stars has been obtained using the telescopes of the Isaac Newton Group (ING) and the Anglo-Australian Observatory (AAO). The sample was selected to include objects with published radio and/or mm fluxes. The Halpha observations are quantitatively modelled using a modified version of the FORSOL code developed by Puls et al. (1996). FORSOL has been coupled with the PIKAIA subroutine (Charbonneau and Knapp, 1996) to create PHALTEE (Program for Halpha Line Transfer with Eugenic Estimation), in order to search a specified parameter space for the 'best' (quasi- least-squares) model fit to the data, using a genetic algorithm. This renders Ha modelling both more objective and automated. Where possible, both mass-loss rates and velocity field beta-exponents are determined for the sample. New mm-wave observations of nineteen Galactic early-type stars, including a subset of the Halpha sample, have been obtained using the Sub-millimetre Common User Bolometer Array (SCUBA). Where possible, mean fluxes are calculated, and these data used with the results of a literature survey of mm and cm fluxes to determine mass-loss rates for a larger sample, of 53 Galactic early-type stars. The incidence of nonthermal emission is examined, with 23% of the sample exhibiting strong evidence for nonthermal flux. The occurrence of binarity and excess X-ray emission amongst the nonthermal emitters is also investigated. For the subset of 36 stars common to both the Halpha and mm/radio samples, the results permit a comparison of mass-loss rates derived using diagnostics that probe the wind conditions at different radial depths. A mean value of log (Mradio/MHalpha) = 0.02 +/- 0.05 is obtained for the thermal radio emitters. The wind-momentum-luminosity relationship (WLR) for the sample is also investigated.
Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.
Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick
2018-02-01
Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6 ° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1 ° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keifer, David Z.; Alexander, Andrew W.; Jarrold, Martin F.
2017-03-01
Spontaneous mass and charge losses from individual multi-megadalton ions have been observed with charge detection mass spectrometry (CDMS) by trapping single hepatitis B virus (HBV) capsids for 3 s. Gradual increases in the oscillation frequency of single ions in the ion trap are attributed mainly to mass loss (probably solvent, water, and/or salt). The total mass lost during the 3 s trapping period peaks at around 20 kDa for 4 MDa HBV T = 4 capsids. Discrete frequency drops punctuate the gradual increases in the oscillation frequencies. The drops are attributed to a sudden loss of charge. In most cases a single positive charge is lost along with some mass (on average around 1000 Da). Charge loss occurs for over 40% of the trapped ions. It usually occurs near the beginning of the trapping event, and it occurs preferentially in regions of the trap with strong electric fields, indicating that external electric fields promote charge loss. This process may contribute to the decrease in m/ z resolution that often occurs with megadalton ions.
Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions Near Ice Rises and Ice Rumples
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lange, M. A.; Rückamp, M.; Kleiner, T.
2013-12-01
The stability of ice shelves depends on the existence of embayments and is largely influenced by ice rises and ice rumples, which act as 'pinning-points' for ice shelf movement. Of additional critical importance are interactions between ice shelves and the water masses underlying them in ice shelf cavities, particularly melting and refreezing processes. The present study aims to elucidate the role of ice rises and ice rumples in the context of climate change impacts on Antarctic ice shelves. However, due to their smaller spatial extent, ice rumples react more sensitively to climate change than ice rises. Different forcings are at work and need to be considered separately as well as synergistically. In order to address these issues, we have decided to deal with the following three issues explicitly: oceanographic-, cryospheric and general topics. In so doing, we paid particular attention to possible interrelationships and feedbacks in a coupled ice-shelf-ocean system. With regard to oceanographic issues, we have applied the ocean circulation model ROMBAX to ocean water masses adjacent to and underneath a number of idealized ice shelf configurations: wide and narrow as well as laterally restrained and unrestrained ice shelves. Simulations were performed with and without small ice rises located close to the calving front. For larger configurations, the impact of the ice rises on melt rates at the ice shelf base is negligible, while for smaller configurations net melting rates at the ice-shelf base differ by a factor of up to eight depending on whether ice rises are considered or not. We employed the thermo-coupled ice flow model TIM-FD3 to simulate the effects of several ice rises and one ice rumple on the dynamics of ice shelf flow. We considered the complete un-grounding of the ice shelf in order to investigate the effect of pinning points of different characteristics (interior or near calving front, small and medium sized) on the resulting flow and stress fields
Mass loss in O-type stars - Parameters which affect it
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garmany, C. D.; Conti, P. S.
1984-01-01
Newly determined mass loss rates are presented for sixteen O-type stars in three open clusters. Combining the data with that already in the literature, no evidence is found that the rates are different in clusters with differing galactocentric distances and compositions, at least near the sun. There is still appreciable dispersion in the relationship between the mass loss rate and the stellar luminosity. It may be that the mass loss depends additionally on the stellar mass and/or radius, but these data cannot unequivocally indicate which physical dependence is correct. Evidence is found that a stellar wind increases as a massive star evolves from the zero-age main sequence.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Wiese, David N.; Larour, Eric Y.; Watkins, Michael M.; Box, Jason E.; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.
2016-09-01
Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ˜ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003-2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice-ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by
Atmospheric river impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt and mass balance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mattingly, K.; Mote, T. L.
2017-12-01
Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has accelerated during the early part of the 21st Century. Several episodes of widespread GrIS melt in recent years have coincided with intense poleward moisture transport by atmospheric rivers (ARs), suggesting that variability in the frequency and intensity of these events may be an important driver of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS. ARs may contribute to GrIS surface melt through the greenhouse effect of water vapor, the radiative effects of clouds, condensational latent heating within poleward-advected air masses, and the energy provided by liquid precipitation. However, ARs may also provide significant positive contributions to GrIS SMB through enhanced snow accumulation. Prior research on the role of ARs in Arctic climate has consisted of case studies of ARs associated with major GrIS melt events or examined the effects of poleward moisture flux on Arctic sea ice. In this study, a long-term (1979-2016) record of intense moisture transport events affecting Greenland is compiled using a conventional AR identification algorithm as well as a self-organizing map (SOM) classification applied to integrated water vapor transport (IVT) data from several atmospheric reanalysis datasets. An analysis of AR effects on GrIS melt and SMB is then performed with GrIS surface melt data from passive microwave satellite observations and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. Results show that meltwater production is above normal during and after AR impact days throughout the GrIS during all seasons, with surface melt enhanced most by strong (> 85th percentile IVT) and extreme (> 95th percentile IVT) ARs. This relationship holds at the seasonal scale, as the total amount of water vapor transported to the GrIS by ARs is significantly greater during above-normal melt seasons. ARs exert a more complex influence on SMB. Normal (< 85th percentile IVT) ARs generally do not have a substantial impact on
Evolved Late-Type Star FUV Spectra: Mass Loss and Fluorescence
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Harper, Graham M.
2005-01-01
This proposal was for a detailed analysis of the far ultraviolet (FUV) photoionizing radiation that provides crucial input physics for mass loss studies, e.g., observations of the flux below 10448, allow us to constrain the Ca II/Ca III balance and make significant progress beyond previous optical studies on stellar mass loss and circumstellar photochemistry. Our targets selection provided good spectral-type coverage required to help unravel the Ca II/Ca III balance as the mass-loss rates increase by over three orders of magnitude from K5 III to M5 III. We also explored the relationship between the FUV radiation field and other UV diagnostics to allow us to empirically estimate the FUV radiation field for the vast majority of stars which are too faint to be observed with FUSE, and to improve upon their uncertain mass-loss rates.
Surface composition changes in massive star evolution with mass loss
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Noels, A.; Gabriel, M.; Vreux, J.-M.; Conti, P. S.
1980-01-01
A series of evolutionary models of 40-100 solar mass objects undergoing mass loss are constructed with the explicit inclusion of the surface composition of H, He, C, N, O elements. Mass loss rates similar to those observed in Of stars, 4 to 7 x 10 to the -6th solar masses/yr, result in an appearance at the surface of equilibrium CNO products, i.e. enhanced nitrogen and diminished carbon, while that star is still burning hydrogen in the core. This result obtains because the initial convection core is a relatively large fraction of the total mass and rather modest loss exposes levels of anomalous composition. It is suggested that these objects might reasonably be identified as those luminous late type WN stars still containing surface hydrogen.
Polarization and studies of evolved star mass loss
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sargent, Benjamin; Srinivasan, Sundar; Riebel, David; Meixner, Margaret
2012-05-01
Polarization studies of astronomical dust have proven very useful in constraining its properties. Such studies are used to constrain the spatial arrangement, shape, composition, and optical properties of astronomical dust grains. Here we explore possible connections between astronomical polarization observations to our studies of mass loss from evolved stars. We are studying evolved star mass loss in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) by using photometry from the Surveying the Agents of a Galaxy's Evolution (SAGE; PI: M. Meixner) Spitzer Space Telescope Legacy program. We use the radiative transfer program 2Dust to create our Grid of Red supergiant and Asymptotic giant branch ModelS (GRAMS), in order to model this mass loss. To model emission of polarized light from evolved stars, however, we appeal to other radiative transfer codes. We probe how polarization observations might be used to constrain the dust shell and dust grain properties of the samples of evolved stars we are studying.
The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reese, R.; Gudmundsson, G. H.; Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.
2018-01-01
Floating ice shelves, which fringe most of Antarctica's coastline, regulate ice flow into the Southern Ocean1-3. Their thinning4-7 or disintegration8,9 can cause upstream acceleration of grounded ice and raise global sea levels. So far the effect has not been quantified in a comprehensive and spatially explicit manner. Here, using a finite-element model, we diagnose the immediate, continent-wide flux response to different spatial patterns of ice-shelf mass loss. We show that highly localized ice-shelf thinning can reach across the entire shelf and accelerate ice flow in regions far from the initial perturbation. As an example, this `tele-buttressing' enhances outflow from Bindschadler Ice Stream in response to thinning near Ross Island more than 900 km away. We further find that the integrated flux response across all grounding lines is highly dependent on the location of imposed changes: the strongest response is caused not only near ice streams and ice rises, but also by thinning, for instance, well-within the Filchner-Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves. The most critical regions in all major ice shelves are often located in regions easily accessible to the intrusion of warm ocean waters10-12, stressing Antarctica's vulnerability to changes in its surrounding ocean.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Motyka, R.; Fahnestock, M.; Howat, I.; Truffer, M.; Brecher, H.; Luethi, M.
2008-12-01
Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet and is the ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. Two sets of high elevation (~13,500 m), high resolution (2 m) aerial photographs of Jakobshavn Isbrae were obtained about two weeks apart during July 1985 (Fastook et al, 1995). These historic photo sets have become increasingly important for documenting and understanding the dynamic state of this outlet stream prior to the rapid retreat and massive ice loss that began in 1998 and continues today. The original photogrammetric analysis of this imagery is summarized in Fastook et al. (1995). They derived a coarse DEM (3 km grid spacing) covering an area of approximately 100 km x 100 km by interpolating several hundred positions determined manually from block-aerial triangulation. We have re-analyzed these photos sets using digital photogrammetry (BAE Socet Set©) and significantly improved DEM quality and resolution (20, 50, and 100 m grids). The DEMs were in turn used to produce high quality orthophoto mosaics. Comparing our 1985 DEM to a DEM we derived from May 2006 NASA ATM measurements showed a total ice volume loss of ~ 105 km3 over the lower drainage area; almost all of this loss has occurred since 1997. Ice stream surface velocities derived from the 1985 orthomosaics showed speeds of 20 m/d on the floating tongue, diminishing to 5 m/d at 50 km further upstream. Velocities have since nearly doubled along the ice stream during its current retreat. Fastook, J.L., H.H. Brecher, and T.J. Hughes, 1995. J.of Glaciol. 11 (137), 161-173.
Adiabatic Mass Loss Model in Binary Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ge, H. W.
2012-07-01
Rapid mass transfer process in the interacting binary systems is very complicated. It relates to two basic problems in the binary star evolution, i.e., the dynamically unstable Roche-lobe overflow and the common envelope evolution. Both of the problems are very important and difficult to be modeled. In this PhD thesis, we focus on the rapid mass loss process of the donor in interacting binary systems. The application to the criterion of dynamically unstable mass transfer and the common envelope evolution are also included. Our results based on the adiabatic mass loss model could be used to improve the binary evolution theory, the binary population synthetic method, and other related aspects. We build up the adiabatic mass loss model. In this model, two approximations are included. The first one is that the energy generation and heat flow through the stellar interior can be neglected, hence the restructuring is adiabatic. The second one is that he stellar interior remains in hydrostatic equilibrium. We model this response by constructing model sequences, beginning with a donor star filling its Roche lobe at an arbitrary point in its evolution, holding its specific entropy and composition profiles fixed. These approximations are validated by the comparison with the time-dependent binary mass transfer calculations and the polytropic model for low mass zero-age main-sequence stars. In the dynamical time scale mass transfer, the adiabatic response of the donor star drives it to expand beyond its Roche lobe, leading to runaway mass transfer and the formation of a common envelope with its companion star. For donor stars with surface convection zones of any significant depth, this runaway condition is encountered early in mass transfer, if at all; but for main sequence stars with radiative envelopes, it may be encountered after a prolonged phase of thermal time scale mass transfer, so-called delayed dynamical instability. We identify the critical binary mass ratio for the
Reconciling different observations of the CO2 ice mass loading of the Martian north polar cap
Haberle, R.M.; Mattingly, B.; Titus, T.N.
2004-01-01
The GRS measurements of the peak mass loading of the north polar CO2 ice cap on Mars are about 60% lower than those calculated from MGS TES radiation data and those inferred from the MOLA cap thicknesses. However, the GRS data provide the most accurate measurement of the mass loading. We show that the TES and MOLA data can be reconciled with the GRS data if (1) subsurface heat conduction and atmospheric heat transport are included in the TES mass budget calculations, and (2) the density of the polar deposits is ???600 kg m-3. The latter is much less than that expected for slab ice (???1600 kg m-3) and suggests that processes unique to the north polar region are responsible for the low cap density. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
Barnes, David K A
2017-12-01
One of the major climate-forced global changes has been white to blue to green; losses of sea ice extent in time and space around Arctic and West Antarctic seas has increased open water and the duration (though not magnitude) of phytoplankton blooms. Blueing of the poles has increases potential for heat absorption for positive feedback but conversely the longer phytoplankton blooms have increased carbon export to storage and sequestration by shelf benthos. However, ice shelf collapses and glacier retreat can calve more icebergs, and the increased open water allows icebergs more opportunities to scour the seabed, reducing zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage. Here the size and variability in benthic blue carbon in mega and macrobenthos was assessed in time and space at Ryder and Marguerite bays of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In particular the influence of the duration of primary productivity and ice scour are investigated from the shallows to typical shelf depths of 500 m. Ice scour frequency dominated influence on benthic blue carbon at 5 m, to comparable with phytoplankton duration by 25 m depth. At 500 m only phytoplankton duration was significant and influential. WAP zoobenthos was calculated to generate ~10 7 , 4.5 × 10 6 and 1.6 × 10 6 tonnes per year (between 2002 and 2015) in terms of production, immobilization and sequestration of carbon respectively. Thus about 1% of annual primary productivity has sequestration potential at the end of the trophic cascade. Polar zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage responses to sea ice losses, the largest negative feedback on climate change, has been underestimated despite some offsetting of gain by increased ice scouring with more open water. Equivalent survey of Arctic and sub-Antarctic shelves, for which new projects have started, should reveal the true extent of this feedback and how much its variability contributes to uncertainty in climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Snow, T.; Shepherd, B.; Abdalati, W.; Scambos, T. A.
2016-12-01
Dynamic processes at marine-terminating outlet glaciers are responsible for over one-third of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss. Enhanced intrusion of warm ocean waters at the termini of these glaciers has contributed to elevated rates of ice thinning and terminus retreat over the last two decades. In situ oceanographic measurements and modeling studies show that basal melting of glaciers and subglacial discharge can cause buoyant plumes of water to rise to the fjord surface and influence fjord circulation characteristics. The temperature of these surface waters holds clues about ice-ocean interactions and small-scale circulation features along the glacier terminus that could contribute to outlet glacier mass loss, but the magnitude and duration of temperature variability remains uncertain. Satellite remote sensing has proven very effectiver for acquiring sea surface temperatuer (SST) data from these remote regions on a long-term, consistent basis and shows promise for identifying temperature anomalies at the ice front. However, these data sets have not been widely utilized to date. Here, we use satellite-derived sea surface temperatures to identify fjord surface outflow characteristics from 2000 to present at the Petermann Glacier, which drains 4% of the GIS and is experiencing 80% of its mass loss from basal melt. We find a general SST warming trend that coincides with early sea ice breakup and precedes two major calving events and ice speedup that began in 2010. Persistent SST anomalies along the terminus provide evidence of warm outflow that is consistent with buoyant plume model predictions. However, the anomalies are not evident early in the time series, suggesting that ocean inflow and ice-ocean interactions have experienced a regime shift since 2000. Our results provide valuable insight into fjord circulation patterns and the forcing mechanisms that contribute to terminus retreat. Comparing our results to ongoing modeling experiments, time series from
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jouan, C.; Pelon, J.; Girard, E.; Ancellet, G.; Blanchet, J. P.; Delanoë, J.
2014-02-01
Recently, two types of ice clouds (TICs) properties have been characterized using the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) airborne measurements (Alaska, April 2008). TIC-2B were characterized by fewer (< 10 L-1) and larger (> 110 μm) ice crystals, and a larger ice supersaturation (> 15%) compared to TIC-1/2A. It has been hypothesized that emissions of SO2 may reduce the ice nucleating properties of ice nuclei (IN) through acidification, resulting in a smaller concentration of larger ice crystals and leading to precipitation (e.g., cloud regime TIC-2B). Here, the origin of air masses forming the ISDAC TIC-1/2A (1 April 2008) and TIC-2B (15 April 2008) is investigated using trajectory tools and satellite data. Results show that the synoptic conditions favor air masses transport from three potential SO2 emission sources into Alaska: eastern China and Siberia where anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, respectively, are produced, and the volcanic region of the Kamchatka/Aleutians. Weather conditions allow the accumulation of pollutants from eastern China and Siberia over Alaska, most probably with the contribution of acidic volcanic aerosol during the TIC-2B period. Observation Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations reveal that SO2 concentrations in air masses forming the TIC-2B were larger than in air masses forming the TIC-1/2A. Airborne measurements show high acidity near the TIC-2B flight where humidity was low. These results support the hypothesis that acidic coating on IN could be at the origin of the formation of TIC-2B.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nield, G. A.; Barletta, V. R.; Bordoni, A.; King, M. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Clarke, P. J.; Domack, E. W.
2013-12-01
Since 1995 several ice shelves in the northern Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed and triggered ice-mass unloading, invoking a solid Earth response that has been recorded at GPS stations. The previous attempt to model the observation of rapid uplift following the 2002 breakup of Larsen B Ice Shelf failed, being limited by incomplete knowledge of the pattern of ice unloading and possibly the assumption of an elastic-only mechanism. We make use of a new high resolution dataset of ice elevation change that captures ice-mass loss north of 66°S to show that non-linear uplift of the Palmer GPS station since 2002 cannot be explained by an elastic-only signal. We apply a viscoelastic model with linear Maxwell rheology to predict uplift since 1995. We vary the thickness of the elastic lithosphere and upper mantle viscosity, and test the fit to the Palmer GPS time series. We find a best fitting Earth model with an upper mantle viscosity of less than 2 x 1018 Pa s, much lower than previously modelled, and limited sensitivity to lithospheric thickness. Comparison to vertical velocities from six GPS stations deployed after 2009 (the LARISSA network) verifies the results from the model with reduction of signal from up to 14 mm/yr to up to 3 mm/yr. These sites have a unique spatial arrangement and are ideally placed to record uplift close to the region of largest mass loss. Including the time series of the newer sites in the model tuning produces a narrower range of lithospheric thickness estimates but with the drawback of needing to assume the pre-2009 background uplift rate. The Palmer GPS time series offers a rare opportunity to study the time-evolution of low-viscosity solid earth response to a well-captured ice unloading event.
[FACTORS WHICH INFLUENCE THE LEAN MASS LOSS IN CANCER PATIENTS].
Sánchez Sánchez, Eduardo; Muñoz Alferez, Maria José
2015-10-01
cancer is an important illness in the sanitary field due to phisic and functional consequences involved in it. Among these consequences there is the malnutrition which can cause a loss of lean mass and with it a decrease in the Quality of Life, an increase in hospital stays, social and health costs and so on. The aim of this research is to know which factors can influence in the loss of the lean mass. it is a cross-sectional study in a sample of 72 patients who receive a radiotherapy with curative intent during a period from February 07th and May 14th, 2014. from this pattern Of the total 64 patients were studied, of which 43.7% of the patients presented loss of lean mass, with 21.8% the percentage of patients losing < 2%, 4.7% those with a loss between 2-5% and > 5%, 17.2% of patients. Among the factors studied that can influence the loss of lean mass, only the presence of digestive symptoms have statistical significance (OR = 3.3 or 6.6, as we take as a reference the percentage loss). the aim of the health staff who are working with these patients is to avoid the consequences that accompanies the loss of lean mass. For all this, it is very important to act before the digestive symptoms, by anticipating to them, or early implementation of an individualized nutritional intervention. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.
Multi-Decadal Averages of Basal Melt for Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica Using Airborne Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, I.; Bell, R. E.; Tinto, K. J.; Frearson, N.; Kingslake, J.; Padman, L.; Siddoway, C. S.; Fricker, H. A.
2017-12-01
Changes in ice shelf mass balance are key to the long term stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although the most extensive ice shelf mass loss currently is occurring in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, many other ice shelves experience changes in thickness on time scales from annual to ice age cycles. Here, we focus on the Ross Ice Shelf. An 18-year record (1994-2012) of satellite radar altimetry shows substantial variability in Ross Ice Shelf height on interannual time scales, complicating detection of potential long-term climate-change signals in the mass budget of this ice shelf. Variability of radar signal penetration into the ice-shelf surface snow and firn layers further complicates assessment of mass changes. We investigate Ross Ice Shelf mass balance using aerogeophysical data from the ROSETTA-Ice surveys using IcePod. We use two ice-penetrating radars; a 2 GHz unit that images fine-structure in the upper 400 m of the ice surface and a 360 MHz radar to identify the ice shelf base. We have identified internal layers that are continuous along flow from the grounding line to the ice shelf front. Based on layer continuity, we conclude that these layers must be the horizons between the continental ice of the outlet glaciers and snow accumulation once the ice is afloat. We use the Lagrangian change in thickness of these layers, after correcting for strain rates derived using modern day InSAR velocities, to estimate multidecadal averaged basal melt rates. This method provides a novel way to quantify basal melt, avoiding the confounding impacts of spatial and short-timescale variability in surface accumulation and firn densification processes. Our estimates show elevated basal melt rates (> -1m/yr) around Byrd and Mullock glaciers within 100 km from the ice shelf front. We also compare modern InSAR velocity derived strain rates with estimates from the comprehensive ground-based RIGGS observations during 1973-1978 to estimate the potential magnitude of
The evolution of massive stars including mass loss - Presupernova models and explosion
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Woosley, S. E.; Langer, Norbert; Weaver, Thomas A.
1993-01-01
The evolution of massive stars of 35, 40, 60, and 85 solar masses is followed through all stages of nuclear burning to the point of Fe core collapse. Critical nuclear reaction and mass-loss rates are varied. Efficient mass loss during the Wolf-Rayet (WR) stage is likely to lead to final masses as small as 4 solar masses. For a reasonable parameterization of the mass loss, there may be convergence of all WR stars, both single and in binaries, to a narrow band of small final masses. Our representative model, a 4.25 solar-mass WR presupernova derived from a 60 solar mass star, is followed through a simulated explosion, and its explosive nucleosynthesis and light curve are determined. Its properties are similar to those observed in Type Ib supernovae. The effects of the initial mass and mass loss on the presupernova structure of small mass WR models is also explored. Important properties of the presupernova star and its explosion can only be obtained by following the complete evolution starting on the main sequence.
Leakage of the Greenland Ice Sheet through accelerated ice flow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rignot, E.
2005-12-01
A map of coastal velocities of the Greenland ice sheet was produced from Radarsat-1 acquired during the background mission of 2000 and combined with radio echo sounding data to estimate the ice discharge from the ice sheet. On individual glaciers, ice discharge was compared with snow input from the interior and melt above the flux gate to determine the glacier mass balance. Time series of velocities on several glaciers at different latitudes reveal seasonal fluctuations of only 7-8 percent so that winter velocities are only 2 percent less than the yearly mean. The results show the northern Greenland glaciers to be close to balance yet losing mass. No change in ice flow is detected on Petermann, 79north and Zachariae Isstrom in 2000-2004. East Greenland glaciers are in balance and flowing steadily north of Kangerdlussuaq, but Kangerdlussuaq, Helheim and all the southeastern glaciers are thinning dramatically. All these glaciers accelerated, Kangerdlussuaq in 2000, Helheim prior to 2004, and southeast Greenland glaciers accelerated 10 to 50 percent in 2000-2004. Glacier acceleration is generally brutal, probably once the glacier reached a threshold, and sustained. In the northwest, most glaciers are largely out of balance. Jakobshavn accelerated significantly in 2002, and glaciers in its immediate vicinity accelerated more than 50 percent in 2000-2004. Less is known about southwest Greenland glaciers due to a lack of ice thickness data but the glaciers have accelerated there as well and are likely to be strongly out of balance despite thickening of the interior. Overall, I estimate the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to be about -80 +/-10 cubic km of ice per year in 2000 and -110 +/-15 cubic km of ice per year in 2004, i.e. more negative than based on partial altimetry surveys of the outlet glaciers. As climate continues to warm, more glaciers will accelerate, and the mass balance will become increasingly negative, regardless of the evolution of the ice sheet
Refreezing on the Greenland ice sheet: a model comparison
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steger, Christian; Reijmer, Carleen; van den Broeke, Michiel; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Noël, Brice
2016-04-01
Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is an important contributor to global sea level rise. Besides calving, surface melt is the dominant source of mass loss. However, only part of the surface melt leaves the ice sheet as runoff whereas the other part percolates into the snow cover and refreezes. Due to this process, part of the meltwater is (intermediately) stored. Refreezing thus impacts the surface mass balance of the ice sheet but it also affects the vertical structure of the snow cover due to transport of mass and energy. Due to the sparse availability of in situ data and the demand of future projections, it is inevitable to use numerical models to simulate refreezing and related processes. Currently, the magnitude of refrozen mass is neither well constrained nor well validated. In this study, we model the snow and firn layer, and compare refreezing on the GrIS as modelled with two different numerical models. Both models are forced with meteorological data from the regional climate model RACMO 2 that has been shown to simulate realistic conditions for Greenland. One model is the UU/IMAU firn densification model (FDM) that can be used both in an on- and offline mode with RACMO 2. The other model is SNOWPACK; a model originally designed to simulate seasonal snow cover in alpine conditions. In contrast to FDM, SNOWPACK accounts for snow metamorphism and microstructure and contains a more physically based snow densification scheme. A first comparison of the models indicates that both seem to be able to capture the general spatial and temporal pattern of refreezing. Spatially, refreezing occurs mostly in the ablation zone and decreases in the accumulation zone towards the interior of the ice sheet. Below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) where refreezing occurs in seasonal snow cover on bare ice, the storage effect is only intermediate. Temporal patterns on a seasonal range indicate two peaks in refreezing; one at the beginning of the melt season where
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nick, Faezeh M.; Hubbard, Alun; van der Veen, Kees; Vieli, Andreas
2010-05-01
Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modelling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.
On the extraordinary snow on the sea ice off East Antarctica in late winter, 2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toyota, Takenobu; Massom, Robert; Lecomte, Olivier; Nomura, Daiki; Heil, Petra; Tamura, Takeshi; Fraser, Alexander D.
2016-09-01
In late winter-early spring 2012, the second Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems Experiment (SIPEX II) was conducted off Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, onboard R/V Aurora Australis. The sea-ice conditions were characterized by significantly thick first-year ice and snow, trapping the ship for about 10 days in the near coastal region. The deep snow cover was particularly remarkable, in that its average value of 0.45 m was almost three times that observed between 1992 and 2007 in the region. To reveal factors responsible, we used in situ observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis (1990-2012) to examine the relative contribution of the different components of the local-regional snow mass balance equation i.e., snow accumulation on sea ice, precipitation minus evaporation (P-E), and loss by (i) snow-ice formation and (ii) entering into leads due to drifting snow. Results show no evidence for significantly high P-E in the winter of 2012. Ice core analysis has shown that although the snow-ice layer was relatively thin, indicating less transformation from snow to snow-ice in 2012 as compared to measurements from 2007, the difference was not enough to explain the extraordinarily deep snow. Based on these results, we deduce that lower loss of snow into leads was probably responsible for the extraordinary snow in 2012. Statistical analysis and satellite images suggest that the reduction in loss of snow into leads is attributed to rough ice surface associated with active deformation processes and larger floe size due to sea-ice expansion. This highlights the importance of snow-sea ice interaction in determining the mean snow depth on Antarctic sea ice.
Fondell, Thomas F.; Flint, Paul L.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Schamber, Jason L.; Nicolai, Christopher A.
2013-01-01
Birds employ varying strategies to accommodate the energetic demands of moult, one important example being changes in body mass. To understand better their physiological and ecological significance, we tested three hypotheses concerning body mass dynamics during moult. We studied Black Brant in 2006 and 2007 moulting at three sites in Alaska which varied in food availability, breeding status and whether geese undertook a moult migration. First we predicted that if mass loss during moult were simply the result of inadequate food resources then mass loss would be highest where food was least available. Secondly, we predicted that if mass loss during moult were adaptive, allowing birds to reduce activity during moult, then birds would gain mass prior to moult where feeding conditions allowed and mass loss would be positively related to mass at moult initiation. Thirdly, we predicted that if mass loss during moult were adaptive, allowing birds to regain flight sooner, then across sites and groups, mass at the end of the flightless period would converge on a theoretical optimum, i.e. the mass that permits the earliest possible return to flight. Mass loss was greatest where food was most available and thus our results did not support the prediction that mass loss resulted from inadequate food availability. Mass at moult initiation was positively related to both food availability and mass loss. In addition, among sites and years, variation in mass was high at moult initiation but greatly reduced at the end of the flightless period, appearing to converge. Thus, our results supported multiple predictions that mass loss during moult was adaptive and that the optimal moulting strategy was to gain mass prior to the flightless period, then through behavioural modifications use these body reserves to reduce activity and in so doing also reduce wing loading. Geese that undertook a moult migration initiated moult at the highest mass, indicating that they were more than able to
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davis, J. L.; Vinogradova, N. T.
2017-12-01
Tide-gauge records from the North Atlantic reveal significant acceleration in sea level starting in the late 20th century. We have analyzed the tide-gauge data using a model in which the accelerations are assumed to be zero prior to 1990. The estimated accelerations range from -1 to +3 m cy-2 and exhibit a systematic spatial variability. Davis and Vinogradova [2017] demonstrated that to model this variability in sea-level acceleration requires contributions from several distinct physical processes: accelerated mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and acceleration associated with ocean circulation and heat uptake. Atmospheric pressure also contributes to the observed changes in sea level, at a much smaller amplitude. Because we are focusing on sea-level accelerations (i.e., sea-level rate changes), the contribution from Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is negligible. Modeling of observed sea-level acceleration is achieved using external constraints for the important physical processes. Using GRACE results, we can calculate the sea-level "fingerprints" for Greenland and Antarctica associated with mass loading and gravitational perturbations. For the North Atlantic, Greenland induces a significant spatial variation in sea-level change—dominated by the solid-Earth response to the mass loss—whereas Antarctica contributes a spatially constant acceleration. The observations prefer a scaling of the solid-Earth/gravitational response, and we present the implications of this result for ice-mass changes prior to the onset of GRACE observations (2002-3).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khawaja, Nozair; Postberg, Frank; Reviol, Rene; Srama, Ralf
2015-04-01
The major source of ice particles in Saturn's E-ring is Enceladus - a geological active moon of Saturn. Enceladus is emanating ice particles from its fractured south polar terrain (SPT), the so-called "Tiger Stripes". The source of Enceladus activity and many of the ice particles is a subsurface ocean. The Cosmic Dust Analyzer (CDA) onboard the Cassini spacecraft is sampling these icy particles and producing TOF mass spectra of cations of impinging particles [1]. Three compositional types of ice particles have been identified from CDA-mass spectra: (i) pure water ice (Type-1) (ii) organic rich (Type-2) (iii) salt rich (Type-3) [2][3]. These organic rich (Type-2) spectra are particularly abundant in the icy jets of Enceladus as we found out during the Cassini's Enceladus flybys (E17 and E18) in 2012 [4]. We present a compositional analysis of the CDA spectra of these organic rich icy grains sampled in the E ring. We have characterized hundreds of Type-2 spectra of impinging ice particles. These were recorded at different impact velocities causing different molecular fragmentation patterns observed in the mass spectra. We defined 3 typical impact speed intervals: (i) 4-7 km/s (ii) 8-11 km/s and (iii) 12-16km/s. Organic features best observed at slow (4-7 km/s) or at intermediate (8-11 km/s) impact velocity ranges. Several classes of organic rich spectra are identified. Classifying Type-2 spectra are according to their characteristic mass lines of possible organic species. We try to infer the composition of each class of organic rich spectra is inferred by using an experimental setup (IR-FL-MALDI) to simulate the CDA spectra of different compositional types. In the laboratory we have used infrared laser to disperse a micro-beam of a water solution [5]. The laser energy is adjusted to simulate different impact velocities of ice particles on the CDA. Four families of organic compounds including alcohols, fatty acids, amines and aromatic, with varying number of carbon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Osterberg, E. C.; Thompson, J. T.; Wong, G. J.; Hawley, R. L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J.; Ferris, D. G.
2013-12-01
A significant rise in summer temperatures over the past several decades has led to widespread retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) margin and surrounding sea ice. Recent observations from geodetic stations and GRACE show that ice mass loss progressed from South Greenland up to Northwest Greenland by 2005 (Khan et al., 2010). Observations from meteorological stations at the U.S. Thule Air Force Base, remote sensing platforms, and climate reanalyses indicate a 3.5C mean annual warming in the Thule region and a 44% decrease in summer (JJAS) sea-ice concentrations in Baffin Bay from 1980-2010. Mean annual precipitation near Thule increased by 12% over this interval, with the majority of the increase occurring in fall (SON). To improve projections of future ice loss and sea-level rise in a warming climate, we are currently developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate variability and cryospheric response in NW Greenland, with a focus on past warm periods. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 20 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317 N, 63.1467 W) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938 N, 67.671 W) in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The 2Barrel ice core was sampled using a continuous ice core melting system at Dartmouth, and subsequently analyzed for major anion and trace element concentrations and stable water isotope ratios. Here we show that the 2Barrel ice core spanning 1990-2010 records a 25% increase in mean annual snow accumulation, and is positively correlated (r = 0.52, p<0.01) with ERA-Interim precipitation. The 2Barrel annual sea-salt Na concentration is strongly correlated (r = 0.5-0.8, p<0.05) with summer and fall sea-ice concentrations in northern Baffin Bay near Thule (Figure 1). We hypothesize that the positive
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Larour, E. Y.; Khazendar, A.; Seroussi, H. L.; Schlegel, N.; Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Rignot, E. J.; Morlighem, M.
2014-12-01
Altimetry signals from missions such as ICESat-1, CryoSat, EnviSat, as well as altimeters onboard Operation IceBridge provide vital insights into processes such as surface mass balance, mass transport and ice-flow dynamics. Historically however, ice-flow models have been focused on assimilating surface velocities from satellite-based radar observations, to infer properties such as basal friction or the position of the bedrock. Here, we leverage a new methodology based on automatic differentation of the Ice Sheet System Model to assimilate surface altimetry data into a reconstruction of the past decade of ice flow on the North Greenland area. We infer corrections to boundary conditions such as basal friction and surface mass balance, as well as corrections to the ice hardness, to best-match the observed altimetry record. We compare these corrections between glaciers such as Petermann Glacier, 79 North and Zacchariae Isstrom. The altimetry signals exhibit very different patterns between East and West, which translate into very different signatures for the inverted boundary conditions. This study gives us greater insights into what differentiates different basins, both in terms of mass transport and ice-flow dynamics, and what could bethe controlling mechanisms behind the very different evolutions of these basins.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koopmann, Rebecca A.; Lee, Young-Wook; Demarque, Pierre; Howard, Jamie M.
1994-01-01
Mass loss on the horizontal branch has been invoked in the literature to explain such phenomena as the color (mass) dispersion of the horizontal branch and the observed distribution of period changes in RR Lyrae stars. To test these claims, the Yale stellar evolution code was used to evolve horizontal branch models of masses 0.64, 0.66, 0.68, 0.70, and 0.72 solar mass with Z of 0.001, core mass of 0.4893, main-sequence helium abundance of 0.23, and constant mass loss rates of 0, 10(exp -10), 5 x 10(exp -10), and 10(exp -9) solar mass/yr. Mass loss was assumed to occur only in the instability strip, where a mechanism is most likely to exist. Synthetic horizontal branches, constructed from the models, show that mass loss on the horizontal branch cannot produce the observed color dispersion even for the highest mass-loss rate of 10(exp -9) solar mass/yr. Mass loss is unlikely to occur at a higher rate without significant effects on the horizontal branch morphology, which would destroy the good agreement between standard synthetic models without mass loss and observed horizontal branches. Periods and period changes were calculated for all models. The period changes are not significantly larger for models with mass loss. The effect of mass loss in clusters of other metallicities is discussed.
Chromospheres and mass loss in metal-deficient giant stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dupree, A. K.; Hartmann, L.; Avrett, E. H.
1984-01-01
Semiempirical atmospheric models indicate that the characteristic emission in the wings of the H-alpha line observed in Population II giant stars can arise naturally within static chromospheres. Radial expansion gives an asymmetric, blueshifted H-alpha core accompanied by greater emission in the red line wing than in the blue wing. Wind models with extended atmospheres suggest mass loss rates much smaller than 2 x 10 to the -9th solar mass per yr. Thus H-alpha provides no evidence that steady mass loss can significantly affect the evolution of stars on the red giant branch of globular clusters.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jouan, C.; Pelon, J.; Girard, E.; Ancellet, G.; Blanchet, J. P.; Delanoë, J.
2013-02-01
Recently, two Types of Ice Clouds (TICs) properties have been characterized using ISDAC airborne measurements (Alaska, April 2008). TIC-2B were characterized by fewer (<10 L-1) and larger (>110 μm) ice crystals, a larger ice supersaturation (>15%) and a fewer ice nuclei (IN) concentration (<2 order of magnitude) when compared to TIC-1/2A. It has been hypothesized that emissions of SO2 may reduce the ice nucleating properties of IN through acidification, resulting to a smaller concentration of larger ice crystals and leading to precipitation (e.g. cloud regime TIC-2B) because of the reduced competition for the same available moisture. Here, the origin of air masses forming the ISDAC TIC-1/2A (1 April 2008) and TIC-2B (15 April 2008) is investigated using trajectory tools and satellite data. Results show that the synoptic conditions favor air masses transport from the three potentials SO2 emission areas to Alaska: eastern China and Siberia where anthropogenic and biomass burning emission respectively are produced and the volcanic region from the Kamchatka/Aleutians. Weather conditions allow the accumulation of pollutants from eastern China/Siberia over Alaska, most probably with the contribution of acid volcanic aerosol during the TIC-2B period. OMI observations reveal that SO2 concentrations in air masses forming the TIC-2B were larger than in air masses forming the TIC-1/2A. Airborne measurements show high acidity near the TIC-2B flight where humidity was low. These results strongly support the hypothesis that acidic coating on IN are at the origin of the formation of TIC-2B.
Forecasting consequences of changing sea ice availability for Pacific walruses
Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.; Taylor, Rebecca; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Beatty, William S.; Noren, Shawn R.
2017-01-01
The accelerating rate of anthropogenic alteration and disturbance of environments has increased the need for forecasting effects of environmental change on fish and wildlife populations. Models linking projections of environmental change with behavioral responses and bioenergetic effects can provide a basis for these forecasts. There is particular interest in forecasting effects of projected reductions in sea ice availability on Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). Declining extent of summer sea ice in the Chukchi Sea has caused Pacific walruses to increase use of coastal haulouts and decrease use of more productive offshore feeding areas. Such climate-induced changes in distribution and behavior could ultimately affect the status of the population. We developed behavioral models to relate changes in sea ice availability to adult female walrus movements and activity levels, and adapted previously developed bioenergetics models to relate those activity levels to energy requirements and the ability to meet those requirements. We then linked these models to general circulation model projections of future ice availability to forecast autumn body condition for female walruses during mid- and late-century time periods. Our results suggest that as sea ice becomes less available in the Chukchi Sea, female walruses will spend more time in the southwestern region of that sea, less time resting, and less time foraging. Median forecasted autumn body masses were 7–12% lower in future scenarios than during recent times, but posterior distributions broadly overlapped and median forecasted seasonal mass losses (15–34%) were comparable to seasonal mass losses routinely experienced by other pinnipeds. These seasonal reductions in body condition would be unlikely to result in demographic effects, but if walruses were unable to rebuild endogenous reserves while wintering in the Bering Sea, cumulative effects could have implications for reproduction and survival
Increased ice flow in Western Palmer Land linked to ocean melting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hogg, Anna E.; Shepherd, Andrew; Cornford, Stephen L.; Briggs, Kate H.; Gourmelen, Noel; Graham, Jennifer A.; Joughin, Ian; Mouginot, Jeremie; Nagler, Thomas; Payne, Antony J.; Rignot, Eric; Wuite, Jan
2017-05-01
A decrease in the mass and volume of Western Palmer Land has raised the prospect that ice speed has increased in this marine-based sector of Antarctica. To assess this possibility, we measure ice velocity over 25 years using satellite imagery and an optimized modeling approach. More than 30 unnamed outlet glaciers drain the 800 km coastline of Western Palmer Land at speeds ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 m/d, interspersed with near-stagnant ice. Between 1992 and 2015, most of the outlet glaciers sped up by 0.2 to 0.3 m/d, leading to a 13% increase in ice flow and a 15 km3/yr increase in ice discharge across the sector as a whole. Speedup is greatest where glaciers are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, consistent with a loss of buttressing caused by ice shelf thinning in a region of shoaling warm circumpolar water.
Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning
Holland, P. R.; Brisbourne, A.; Corr, H. F. J.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Purdon, K.; Paden, J.; Fricker, H. A.; Paolo, F. S.; Fleming, A.H.
2015-01-01
The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr−1) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr−1) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr−1). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.
Validation of Modelled Ice Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Historical Forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Tezaur, I.; Kennedy, J. H.; Lenaerts, J.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Saba, J. L.; Salinger, A.; Guerber, J. R.
2015-12-01
Although ice sheet models are used for sea level rise projections, the degree to which these models have been validated by observations is fairly limited, due in part to the limited duration of the satellite observation era and the long adjustment time scales of ice sheets. Here we describe a validation framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet applied to the Community Ice Sheet Model by forcing the model annually with flux anomalies at the major outlet glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014, observed from Landsat/ASTER/Operation IceBridge) and surface mass balance (van Angelen et al., 2013, calculated from RACMO2) for the period 1991-2012. The ice sheet model output is compared to ice surface elevation observations from ICESat and ice sheet mass change observations from GRACE. Early results show promise for assessing the performance of different model configurations. Additionally, we explore the effect of ice sheet model resolution on validation skill.
Algae Drive Enhanced Darkening of Bare Ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stibal, Marek; Box, Jason E.; Cameron, Karen A.; Langen, Peter L.; Yallop, Marian L.; Mottram, Ruth H.; Khan, Alia L.; Molotch, Noah P.; Chrismas, Nathan A. M.; Calı Quaglia, Filippo; Remias, Daniel; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Hubbard, Alun; Tranter, Martyn; van As, Dirk; Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.
2017-11-01
Surface ablation of the Greenland ice sheet is amplified by surface darkening caused by light-absorbing impurities such as mineral dust, black carbon, and pigmented microbial cells. We present the first quantitative assessment of the microbial contribution to the ice sheet surface darkening, based on field measurements of surface reflectance and concentrations of light-absorbing impurities, including pigmented algae, during the 2014 melt season in the southwestern part of the ice sheet. The impact of algae on bare ice darkening in the study area was greater than that of nonalgal impurities and yielded a net albedo reduction of 0.038 ± 0.0035 for each algal population doubling. We argue that algal growth is a crucial control of bare ice darkening, and incorporating the algal darkening effect will improve mass balance and sea level projections of the Greenland ice sheet and ice masses elsewhere.
A Study of the Mass Loss Rates of Symbiotic Star Systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Korreck, K. E.; Kellogg, E.; Sokoloski, J. L.
2007-01-01
The amount of mass loss in symbiotic systems is investigated, specifically mass loss via the formation of jets in R Aquarii (R Aqr). The jets in R Aqr have been observed in the X-ray by Chandra over a four year time period. The jet changes on times scales of a year and new outflows have been observed. Understanding the amount of mass and the frequency of ejection further constrain the ability of the white dwarf in the system to accrete enough mass to become a Type la supernova progenitor. The details of multi-wavelength studies, such as speed, density and spatial extent of the jets will be discussed in order to understand the mass balance in the binary system. We examine other symbiotic systems to determine trends in mass loss in this class of objects.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nick, F.; Hubbard, A.; Vieli, A.; van der Veen, C. J.; Box, J. E.; Bates, R.; Luckman, A. J.
2009-12-01
Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.
Water ice cloud property retrievals at Mars with OMEGA:Spatial distribution and column mass
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olsen, Kevin S.; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Szantai, Andre; Audouard, Joachim; Geminale, Anna; Altieri, Francesca; Bellucci, Giancarlo; Montabone, Luca; Wolff, Michael J.; Forget, Francois
2017-04-01
Spectral images of Mars recorded by OMEGA (Observatoire pour la Minéralogie, l'Eau, les Glaces et l'Activité) on Mars Express can be used to deduce the mean effective radius (r_eff) and optical depth (τ_i) of water ice particles in clouds. Using new data sets for a priori surface temperature, vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature, dust opacity, and multi-spectral surface albedo, we have analyzed over 40 OMEGA image cubes over the Tharsis, Arabia, and Syrtis Major quadrangles, and mapped the spatial distribution of r_eff, τ_i, and water ice column mass. We also explored the parameter space of r_eff and τ_i, which are inversely proportional, and the ice cloud index (ICI), which is the ratio of the reflectance at 3.4 and 3.52 μm, and indicates the thickness of water ice clouds. We found that the ICI, trivial to calculate for OMEGA image cubes, can be a proxy for column mass, which is very expensive to compute, requiring accurate retrievals of surface albedo, r_eff, and τ_i. Observing the spatial distribution, we find that within each cloud system, r_eff varies about a mean of 2.1 μm, that τi is closely related to r_eff, and that the values allowed for τ_i, given r_eff, are related to the ICI. We also observe areas where our retrieval detects very thin clouds made of very large particles (mean of 12.5 μm), which are still under investigation.
A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958-2015)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; Lhermitte, Stef; Howat, Ian; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.
2016-10-01
This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958-2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.
Increased protein intake reduces lean body mass loss during weight loss in athletes.
Mettler, Samuel; Mitchell, Nigel; Tipton, Kevin D
2010-02-01
To examine the influence of dietary protein on lean body mass loss and performance during short-term hypoenergetic weight loss in athletes. In a parallel design, 20 young healthy resistance-trained athletes were examined for energy expenditure for 1 wk and fed a mixed diet (15% protein, 100% energy) in the second week followed by a hypoenergetic diet (60% of the habitual energy intake), containing either 15% (approximately 1.0 g x kg(-1)) protein (control group, n = 10; CP) or 35% (approximately 2.3 g x kg(-1)) protein (high-protein group, n = 10; HP) for 2 wk. Subjects continued their habitual training throughout the study. Total, lean body, and fat mass, performance (squat jump, maximal isometric leg extension, one-repetition maximum (1RM) bench press, muscle endurance bench press, and 30-s Wingate test) and fasting blood samples (glucose, nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), glycerol, urea, cortisol, free testosterone, free Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), and growth hormone), and psychologic measures were examined at the end of each of the 4 wk. Total (-3.0 +/- 0.4 and -1.5 +/- 0.3 kg for the CP and HP, respectively, P = 0.036) and lean body mass loss (-1.6 +/- 0.3 and -0.3 +/- 0.3 kg, P = 0.006) were significantly larger in the CP compared with those in the HP. Fat loss, performance, and most blood parameters were not influenced by the diet. Urea was higher in HP, and NEFA and urea showed a group x time interaction. Fatigue ratings and "worse than normal" scores on the Daily Analysis of Life Demands for Athletes were higher in HP. These results indicate that approximately 2.3 g x kg(-1) or approximately 35% protein was significantly superior to approximately 1.0 g x kg(-1) or approximately 15% energy protein for maintenance of lean body mass in young healthy athletes during short-term hypoenergetic weight loss.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Farrell, W. M.; Plaut, J. J.; Gurnett, D. A.; Picardi, G.
2004-01-01
The penetration of the MARSIS radar signal into the polar ice mass is modeled to determine the capability of the instrument to locate sub-glacial aquifers. As a ground penetrating radar, the orbiting MARSIS transmits a signal greater than 1 W between 1-5 MHz. In this work we will investigate the effect of ice conductive losses on the radar-detection of subsurface aquifers. Based on wave propagation analysis, it is found that for a bulk ice conductivity below 10-5 S/m, conductive losses in the medium are not significant. However, if the bulk ice conductivity is relatively large (greater than 10-5 S/m), the reflected signal from any deep aquifer will be absorbed as it propagates in the lossy ice medium limiting the probing depth.
The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.
1950-01-01
Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.
Effects of Main-Sequence Mass Loss on Stellar and Galactic Chemical Evolution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzik, Joyce Ann
1988-06-01
L. A. Willson, G. H. Bowen and C. Struck -Marcell have proposed that 1 to 3 solar mass stars may experience evolutionarily significant mass loss during the early part of their main-sequence phase. The suggested mass-loss mechanism is pulsation, facilitated by rapid rotation. Initial mass-loss rates may be as large as several times 10^{-9}M o/yr, diminishing over several times 10^8 years. We attempted to test this hypothesis by comparing some theoretical implications with observations. Three areas are addressed: Solar models, cluster HR diagrams, and galactic chemical evolution. Mass-losing solar models were evolved that match the Sun's luminosity and radius at its present age. The most extreme viable models have initial mass 2.0 M o, and mass-loss rates decreasing exponentially over 2-3 times 10^8 years. Compared to a constant -mass model, these models require a reduced initial ^4He abundance, have deeper envelope convection zones and higher ^8B neutrino fluxes. Early processing of present surface layers at higher interior temperatures increases the surface ^3He abundance, destroys Li, Be and B, and decreases the surface C/N ratio following first dredge-up. Evolution calculations incorporating main-sequence mass loss were completed for a grid of models with initial masses 1.25 to 2.0 Mo and mass loss timescales 0.2 to 2.0 Gyr. Cluster HR diagrams synthesized with these models confirm the potential for the hypothesis to explain observed spreads or bifurcations in the upper main sequence, blue stragglers, anomalous giants, and poor fits of main-sequence turnoffs by standard isochrones. Simple closed galactic chemical evolution models were used to test the effects of main-sequence mass loss on the F and G dwarf distribution. Stars between 3.0 M o and a metallicity -dependent lower mass are assumed to lose mass. The models produce a 30 to 60% increase in the stars to stars-plus -remnants ratio, with fewer early-F dwarfs and many more late-F dwarfs remaining on the main
Impacts of a Stochastic Ice Mass-Size Relationship on Squall Line Ensemble Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stanford, M.; Varble, A.; Morrison, H.; Grabowski, W.; McFarquhar, G. M.; Wu, W.
2017-12-01
Cloud and precipitation structure, evolution, and cloud radiative forcing of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are significantly impacted by ice microphysics parameterizations. Most microphysics schemes assume power law relationships with constant parameters for ice particle mass, area, and terminal fallspeed relationships as a function of size, despite observations showing that these relationships vary in both time and space. To account for such natural variability, a stochastic representation of ice microphysical parameters was developed using the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, guided by in situ aircraft measurements from a number of field campaigns. Here, the stochastic framework is applied to the "a" and "b" parameters of the unrimed ice mass-size (m-D) relationship (m=aDb) with co-varying "a" and "b" values constrained by observational distributions tested over a range of spatiotemporal autocorrelation scales. Diagnostically altering a-b pairs in three-dimensional (3D) simulations of the 20 May 2011 Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) squall line suggests that these parameters impact many important characteristics of the simulated squall line, including reflectivity structure (particularly in the anvil region), surface rain rates, surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes, buoyancy and latent cooling distributions, and system propagation speed. The stochastic a-b P3 scheme is tested using two frameworks: (1) a large ensemble of two-dimensional idealized squall line simulations and (2) a smaller ensemble of 3D simulations of the 20 May 2011 squall line, for which simulations are evaluated using observed radar reflectivity and radial velocity at multiple wavelengths, surface meteorology, and surface and satellite measured longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes. Ensemble spreads are characterized and compared against initial condition ensemble spreads
Risk Factors for the Loss of Lean Body Mass After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.
Aoyama, Toru; Sato, Tsutomu; Segami, Kenki; Maezawa, Yukio; Kano, Kazuki; Kawabe, Taiichi; Fujikawa, Hirohito; Hayashi, Tsutomu; Yamada, Takanobu; Tsuchida, Kazuhito; Yukawa, Norio; Oshima, Takashi; Rino, Yasushi; Masuda, Munetaka; Ogata, Takashi; Cho, Haruhiko; Yoshikawa, Takaki
2016-06-01
Lean body mass loss after surgery, which decreases the compliance of adjuvant chemotherapy, is frequently observed in gastric cancer patients who undergo gastrectomy for gastric cancer. However, the risk factors for loss of lean body mass remain unclear. The current study retrospectively examined the patients who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2010 and March 2014 at Kanagawa Cancer Center. All the patients received perioperative care for enhanced recovery after surgery. The percentage of lean body mass loss was calculated by the percentile of lean body mass 1 month after surgery to preoperative lean body mass. Severe lean body mass loss was defined as a lean body mass loss greater than 5 %. Risk factors for severe lean body mass loss were determined by both uni- and multivariate logistic regression analyses. This study examined 485 patients. The median loss of lean body mass was 4.7 %. A lean body mass loss of 5 % or more occurred for 225 patients (46.4 %). Both uni- and multivariate logistic analyses demonstrated that the significant independent risk factors for severe lean body mass loss were surgical complications with infection or fasting (odds ratio [OR] 3.576; p = 0.001), total gastrectomy (OR 2.522; p = 0.0001), and gender (OR 1.928; p = 0.001). Nutritional intervention or control of surgical invasion should be tested in future clinical trials for gastric cancer patients with these risk factors to maintain lean body mass after gastrectomy.
Mass-loss Rates from Coronal Mass Ejections: A Predictive Theoretical Model for Solar-type Stars
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cranmer, Steven R.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptive events that cause a solar-type star to shed mass and magnetic flux. CMEs tend to occur together with flares, radio storms, and bursts of energetic particles. On the Sun, CME-related mass loss is roughly an order of magnitude less intense than that of the background solar wind. However, on other types of stars, CMEs have been proposed to carry away much more mass and energy than the time-steady wind. Earlier papers have used observed correlations between solar CMEs and flare energies, in combination with stellar flare observations, to estimate stellar CME rates. This papermore » sidesteps flares and attempts to calibrate a more fundamental correlation between surface-averaged magnetic fluxes and CME properties. For the Sun, there exists a power-law relationship between the magnetic filling factor and the CME kinetic energy flux, and it is generalized for use on other stars. An example prediction of the time evolution of wind/CME mass-loss rates for a solar-mass star is given. A key result is that for ages younger than about 1 Gyr (i.e., activity levels only slightly higher than the present-day Sun), the CME mass loss exceeds that of the time-steady wind. At younger ages, CMEs carry 10–100 times more mass than the wind, and such high rates may be powerful enough to dispel circumstellar disks and affect the habitability of nearby planets. The cumulative CME mass lost by the young Sun may have been as much as 1% of a solar mass.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Parkinson, Claire L.
2012-01-01
Antarctica is the Earth's coldest and highest continent and has major impacts on the climate and life of the south polar vicinity. It is covered almost entirely by the Earth's largest ice sheet by far, with a volume of ice so great that if all the Antarctic ice were to go into the ocean (as ice or liquid water), this would produce a global sea level rise of about 60 meters (197 feet). The continent is surrounded by sea ice that in the wintertime is even more expansive than the continent itself and in the summertime reduces to only about a sixth of its wintertime extent. Like the continent, the expansive sea ice cover has major impacts, reflecting the sun's radiation back to space, blocking exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and providing a platform for some animal species while impeding other species. Far above the continent, the Antarctic ozone hole is a major atmospheric phenomenon recognized as human-caused and potentially quite serious to many different life forms. Satellites are providing us with remarkable information about the ice sheet, the sea ice, and the ozone hole. Satellite visible and radar imagery are providing views of the large scale structure of the ice sheet never seen before; satellite laser altimetry has produced detailed maps of the topography of the ice sheet; and an innovative gravity-measuring two-part satellite has allowed mapping of regions of mass loss and mass gain on the ice sheet. The surrounding sea ice cover has a satellite record that goes back to the 1970s, allowing trend studies that show a decreasing sea ice presence in the region of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas, to the west of the prominent Antarctic Peninsula, but increasing sea ice presence around much of the rest of the continent. Overall, sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased at an average rate of about 17,000 square kilometers per year since the late 1970s, as determined from satellite microwave data that can be collected under both light and
Volcano–ice interactions precursory to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska
Bleick, Heather A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Bull, Katharine F.; Wessels, Rick
2013-01-01
In late summer of 2008, after nearly 20 years of quiescence, Redoubt Volcano began to show signs of abnormal heat flow in its summit crater. In the months that followed, the excess heat triggered melting and ablation of Redoubt's glaciers, beginning at the summit and propagating to lower elevations as the unrest accelerated. A variety of morphological changes were observed, including the creation of ice cauldrons, areas of wide-spread subsidence, punctures in the ice carved out by steam, and deposition from debris flows. In this paper, we use visual observations, satellite data, and a high resolution digital elevation model of the volcanic edifice to calculate ice loss at Redoubt as a function of time. Our aim is to establish from this time series a proxy for heat flow that can be compared to other data sets collected along the same time interval. Our study area consists of the Drift glacier, which flows from the summit crater down the volcano's north slope, and makes up about one quarter of Redoubt's total ice volume of ~ 4 km3. The upper part of the Drift glacier covers the area of recent volcanism, making this part of ice mass most susceptible to the effect of volcanic heating. Moreover, melt water and other flows are channeled down the Drift glacier drainage by topography, leaving the remainder of Redoubt's ice mantle relatively unaffected. The rate of ice loss averaged around 0.1 m3/s over the last four months of 2008, accelerated to over twenty times this value by February 2009, and peaked at greater than 22 m3/s, just prior to the first major explosion on March 22, 2009. We estimate a cumulative ice loss over this period of about 35 million cubic meters (M m3).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.
2014-07-01
viscous response to the early Holocene unloading of ice from the current locations of the ice shelf centers. ICE-6G_C (VM5A) fits the horizontal observations well (wrms residual speed of 0.7 mm yr-1), there being no need to invoke any influence of lateral variation in mantle viscosity. ICE-6G_C (VM5A) differs in several respects from the recently published W12A model of Whitehouse et al. First, the upper-mantle viscosity in VM5a is 5 × 1020 Pa s, half that in W12A. The VM5a profile, which is identical to that inferred on the basis of the Fennoscandian relaxation spectrum, North American relative sea level histories and Earth rotation constraints, when coupled with the revised ICE-6G_C deglaciation history, fits all of the available constraints. Secondly, the net contribution of Antarctica ice loss to global sea level rise is 13.6 m, 2/3 greater than the 8 m in W12A. Thirdly, ice loss occurs quickly from 12 to 5 ka, and the contribution to global sea level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1B (11.5 ka) is large (5 m), consistent with sedimentation constraints from cores from the Antarctica ice shelf. Fourthly, in ICE-6G_C there is no ice gain in the East Antarctica interior, as there is in W12A. Finally, the new model of Antarctic deglaciation reconciles the global constraint upon the global mass loss during deglaciation provided by the Barbados record of relative sea level history when coupled with the Northern Hemisphere counterpart of this new model.
Investigating evaporation of melting ice particles within a bin melting layer model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neumann, Andrea J.
Single column models have been used to help develop algorithms for remote sensing retrievals. Assumptions in the single-column models may affect the assumptions of the remote sensing retrievals. Studies of the melting layer that use single column models often assume environments that are near or at water saturation. This study investigates the effects of evaporation upon melting particles to determine whether the assumption of negligible mass loss still holds within subsaturated melting layers. A single column, melting layer model is modified to include the effects of sublimation and evaporation upon the particles. Other changes to the model include switching the order in which the model loops over particle sizes and model layers; including a particle sedimentation scheme; adding aggregation, accretion, and collision and coalescence processes; allowing environmental variables such as the water vapor diffusivity and the Schmidt number to vary with the changes in the environment; adding explicitly calculated particle temperature, changing the particle terminal velocity parameterization; and using a newly-derived effective density-dimensional relationship for use in particle mass calculations. Simulations of idealized melting layer environments show that significant mass loss due to evaporation during melting is possible within subsaturated environments. Short melting distances, accelerating particle fall speeds, and short melting times help constrain the amount of mass lost due to evaporation while melting is occurring, even in subsaturated profiles. Sublimation prior to melting can also be a significant source of mass loss. The trends shown on the particle scale also appear in the bulk distribution parameters such as rainfall rate and ice water content. Simulations incorporating observed melting layer environments show that significant mass loss due to evaporation during the melting process is possible under certain environmental conditions. A profile such as the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Belart, Joaquín M. C.; Berthier, Etienne; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Anderson, Leif S.; Pálsson, Finnur; Thorsteinsson, Thorsteinn; Howat, Ian M.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Jarosch, Alexander H.
2017-06-01
Sub-meter resolution, stereoscopic satellite images allow for the generation of accurate and high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) over glaciers and ice caps. Here, repeated stereo images of Drangajökull ice cap (NW Iceland) from Pléiades and WorldView2 (WV2) are combined with in situ estimates of snow density and densification of firn and fresh snow to provide the first estimates of the glacier-wide geodetic winter mass balance obtained from satellite imagery. Statistics in snow- and ice-free areas reveal similar vertical relative accuracy (< 0.5 m) with and without ground control points (GCPs), demonstrating the capability for measuring seasonal snow accumulation. The calculated winter (14 October 2014 to 22 May 2015) mass balance of Drangajökull was 3.33 ± 0.23 m w.e. (meter water equivalent), with ∼ 60 % of the accumulation occurring by February, which is in good agreement with nearby ground observations. On average, the repeated DEMs yield 22 % less elevation change than the length of eight winter snow cores due to (1) the time difference between in situ and satellite observations, (2) firn densification and (3) elevation changes due to ice dynamics. The contributions of these three factors were of similar magnitude. This study demonstrates that seasonal geodetic mass balance can, in many areas, be estimated from sub-meter resolution satellite stereo images.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shean, David E.; Christianson, Knut; Larson, Kristine M.; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Joughin, Ian R.; Smith, Ben E.; Stevens, C. Max; Bushuk, Mitchell; Holland, David M.
2017-11-01
In the last 2 decades, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) experienced marked speedup, thinning, and grounding-line retreat, likely due to marine ice-sheet instability and ice-shelf basal melt. To better understand these processes, we combined 2008-2010 and 2012-2014 GPS records with dynamic firn model output to constrain local surface and basal mass balance for PIG. We used GPS interferometric reflectometry to precisely measure absolute surface elevation (zsurf) and Lagrangian surface elevation change (Dzsurf/ Dt). Observed surface elevation relative to a firn layer tracer for the initial surface (zsurf - zsurf0') is consistent with model estimates of surface mass balance (SMB, primarily snow accumulation). A relatively abrupt ˜ 0.2-0.3 m surface elevation decrease, likely due to surface melt and increased compaction rates, is observed during a period of warm atmospheric temperatures from December 2012 to January 2013. Observed Dzsurf/ Dt trends (-1 to -4 m yr-1) for the PIG shelf sites are all highly linear. Corresponding basal melt rate estimates range from ˜ 10 to 40 m yr-1, in good agreement with those derived from ice-bottom acoustic ranging, phase-sensitive ice-penetrating radar, and high-resolution stereo digital elevation model (DEM) records. The GPS and DEM records document higher melt rates within and near features associated with longitudinal extension (i.e., transverse surface depressions, rifts). Basal melt rates for the 2012-2014 period show limited temporal variability despite large changes in ocean temperature recorded by moorings in Pine Island Bay. Our results demonstrate the value of long-term GPS records for ice-shelf mass balance studies, with implications for the sensitivity of ice-ocean interaction at PIG.
BOPP, MELANIE J.; HOUSTON, DENISE K.; LENCHIK, LEON; EASTER, LINDA; KRITCHEVSKY, STEPHEN B.; NICKLAS, BARBARA J.
2013-01-01
The health and quality-of-life implications of overweight and obesity span all ages in the United States. We investigated the association between dietary protein intake and loss of lean mass during weight loss in postmenopausal women through a retrospective analysis of a 20-week randomized, controlled diet and exercise intervention in women aged 50 to 70 years. Weight loss was achieved by differing levels of caloric restriction and exercise. The diet-only group reduced caloric intake by 2,800 kcal/week, and the exercise groups reduced caloric intake by 2,400 kcal/week and expended ~400 kcal/week through aerobic exercise. Total and appendicular lean mass was measured using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the association between changes in lean mass and appendicular lean mass and dietary protein intake. Average weight loss was 10.8±4.0 kg, with an average of 32% of total weight lost as lean mass. Protein intake averaged 0.62 g/kg body weight/day (range=0.47 to 0.8 g/kg body weight/day). Participants who consumed higher amounts of dietary protein lost less lean mass and appendicular lean mass r(=0.3, P=0.01 and r=0.41, P<0.001, respectively). These associations remained significant after adjusting for intervention group and body size. Therefore, inadequate protein intake during caloric restriction may be associated with adverse body-composition changes in postmenopausal women. PMID:18589032
Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.
2006-01-01
Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.
Surface melt dominates Alaska glacier mass balance
Larsen Chris F,; Burgess, E; Arendt, A.A.; O'Neel, Shad; Johnson, A.J.; Kienholz, C.
2015-01-01
Mountain glaciers comprise a small and widely distributed fraction of the world's terrestrial ice, yet their rapid losses presently drive a large percentage of the cryosphere's contribution to sea level rise. Regional mass balance assessments are challenging over large glacier populations due to remote and rugged geography, variable response of individual glaciers to climate change, and episodic calving losses from tidewater glaciers. In Alaska, we use airborne altimetry from 116 glaciers to estimate a regional mass balance of −75 ± 11 Gt yr−1 (1994–2013). Our glacier sample is spatially well distributed, yet pervasive variability in mass balances obscures geospatial and climatic relationships. However, for the first time, these data allow the partitioning of regional mass balance by glacier type. We find that tidewater glaciers are losing mass at substantially slower rates than other glaciers in Alaska and collectively contribute to only 6% of the regional mass loss.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji
2017-12-01
In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.
Heeszel, David S.; Fricker, Helen A.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; O'Neel, Shad; Walter, Fabian
2014-01-01
Iceberg calving is a dominant mass loss mechanism for Antarctic ice shelves, second only to basal melting. An important known process involved in calving is the initiation and propagation of through-penetrating fractures called rifts; however, the mechanisms controlling rift propagation remain poorly understood. To investigate the mechanics of ice-shelf rifting, we analyzed seismicity associated with a propagating rift tip on the Amery Ice Shelf, using data collected during the Austral summers of 2004-2007. We investigated seismicity associated with fracture propagation using a suite of passive seismological techniques including icequake locations, back projection, and moment tensor inversion. We confirm previous results that show that seismicity is characterized by periods of relative quiescence punctuated by swarms of intense seismicity of one to three hours. However, even during periods of quiescence, we find significant seismic deformation around the rift tip. Moment tensors, calculated for a subset of the largest icequakes (MW > -2.0) located near the rift tip, show steeply dipping fault planes, horizontal or shallowly plunging stress orientations, and often have a significant volumetric component. They also reveal that much of the observed seismicity is limited to the upper 50 m of the ice shelf. This suggests a complex system of deformation that involves the propagating rift, the region behind the rift tip, and a system of rift-transverse crevasses. Small-scale variations in the mechanical structure of the ice shelf, especially rift-transverse crevasses and accreted marine ice, play an important role in modulating the rate and location of seismicity associated with propagating ice shelf rifts.
EVOLUTIONARY MODELS OF SUPER-EARTHS AND MINI-NEPTUNES INCORPORATING COOLING AND MASS LOSS
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Howe, Alex R.; Burrows, Adam, E-mail: arhowe@astro.princeton.edu, E-mail: burrows@astro.princeton.edu
We construct models of the structural evolution of super-Earth- and mini-Neptune-type exoplanets with H{sub 2}–He envelopes, incorporating radiative cooling and XUV-driven mass loss. We conduct a parameter study of these models, focusing on initial mass, radius, and envelope mass fractions, as well as orbital distance, metallicity, and the specific prescription for mass loss. From these calculations, we investigate how the observed masses and radii of exoplanets today relate to the distribution of their initial conditions. Orbital distance and the initial envelope mass fraction are the most important factors determining planetary evolution, particularly radius evolution. Initial mass also becomes important belowmore » a “turnoff mass,” which varies with orbital distance, with mass–radius curves being approximately flat for higher masses. Initial radius is the least important parameter we study, with very little difference between the hot start and cold start limits after an age of 100 Myr. Model sets with no mass loss fail to produce results consistent with observations, but a plausible range of mass-loss scenarios is allowed. In addition, we present scenarios for the formation of the Kepler-11 planets. Our best fit to observations of Kepler-11b and Kepler-11c involves formation beyond the snow line, after which they moved inward, circularized, and underwent a reduced degree of mass loss.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Zhuocan; Mace, Jay; Avalone, Linnea; Wang, Zhien
2015-04-01
The extreme variability of ice particle habits in precipitating clouds affects our understanding of these cloud systems in every aspect (i.e. radiation transfer, dynamics, precipitation rate, etc) and largely contributes to the uncertainties in the model representation of related processes. Ice particle mass-dimensional power law relationships, M=a*(D ^ b), are commonly assumed in models and retrieval algorithms, while very little knowledge exists regarding the uncertainties of these M-D parameters in real-world situations. In this study, we apply Optimal Estimation (OE) methodology to infer ice particle mass-dimensional relationship from ice particle size distributions and bulk water contents independently measured on board the University of Wyoming King Air during the Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study (CAMPS). We also utilize W-band radar reflectivity obtained on the same platform (King Air) offering a further constraint to this ill-posed problem (Heymsfield et al. 2010). In addition to the values of retrieved M-D parameters, the associated uncertainties are conveniently acquired in the OE framework, within the limitations of assumed Gaussian statistics. We find, given the constraints provided by the bulk water measurement and in situ radar reflectivity, that the relative uncertainty of mass-dimensional power law prefactor (a) is approximately 80% and the relative uncertainty of exponent (b) is 10-15%. With this level of uncertainty, the forward model uncertainty in radar reflectivity would be on the order of 4 dB or a factor of approximately 2.5 in ice water content. The implications of this finding are that inferences of bulk water from either remote or in situ measurements of particle spectra cannot be more certain than this when the mass-dimensional relationships are not known a priori which is almost never the case.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.
2017-12-01
Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neumann, Thomas; Markus, Thorsten; Smith, Benjamin; Kwok, Ron
2017-04-01
Understanding the causes and magnitudes of changes in the cryosphere remains a priority for Earth science research. Over the past decade, NASA's and ESA's Earth-observing satellites have documented a decrease in both the areal extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice, and an ongoing loss of grounded ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Understanding the pace and mechanisms of these changes requires long-term observations of ice-sheet mass, sea-ice thickness, and sea-ice extent. NASA's ICESat-2 mission is the next-generation space-borne laser altimeter mission and will use three pairs of beams, each pair separated by about 3 km across-track with a pair spacing of 90 m. The spot size is 17 m with an along-track sampling interval of 0.7 m. This measurement concept is a result of the lessons learned from the original ICESat mission. The multi-beam approach is critical for removing the effects of ice sheet surface slope from the elevation change measurements of most interest. For sea ice, the dense spatial sampling (eliminating along-track gaps) and the small footprint size are especially useful for sea surface height measurements in the, often narrow, leads needed for sea ice freeboard and ice thickness retrievals. Currently, algorithms are being developed to calculate ice sheet elevation change and sea ice freeboard from ICESat-2 data. The orbits of ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 both converge at 88 degrees of latitude, though the orbit altitude differences result in different ground track patterns between the two missions. This presentation will present an overview of algorithm approaches and how ICESat-2 and Cryosat-2 data may augment each other.
Booth, D.B.
1986-01-01
An estimate of the sliding velocity and basal meltwater discharge of the Puget lobe of the Cordilleran ice sheet can be calculated from its reconstructed extent, altitude, and mass balance. Lobe dimensions and surface altitudes are inferred from ice limits and flow-direction indicators. Net annual mass balance and total ablation are calculated from relations empirically derived from modern maritime glaciers. An equilibrium-line altitude between 1200 and 1250 m is calculated for the maximum glacial advance (ca. 15,000 yr B.P.) during the Vashon Stade of the Fraser Glaciation. This estimate is in accord with geologic data and is insensitive to plausible variability in the parameters used in the reconstruction. Resultant sliding velocities are as much as 650 m/a at the equilibrium line, decreasing both up- and downglacier. Such velocities for an ice sheet of this size are consistent with nonsurging behavior. Average meltwater discharge increases monotonically downglacier to 3000 m3/sec at the terminus and is of a comparable magnitude to ice discharge over much of the glacier's ablation area. Palcoclimatic inferences derived from this reconstruction are consistent with previous, independently derived studies of late Pleistocene temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. ?? 1986.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.
1985-01-01
Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes was obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft darg coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (C sub d) of 0.5.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.
1985-01-01
Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes were obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft drag coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (c sub d) of 0.5.
PULSATION-TRIGGERED MASS LOSS FROM AGB STARS: THE 60 DAY CRITICAL PERIOD
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
McDonald, I.; Zijlstra, A. A., E-mail: iain.mcdonald-2@jb.man.ac.uk, E-mail: albert.zijlstra@manchester.ac.uk
2016-06-01
Low- and intermediate-mass stars eject much of their mass during the late, red giant branch (RGB) phase of evolution. The physics of their strong stellar winds is still poorly understood. In the standard model, stellar pulsations extend the atmosphere, allowing a wind to be driven through radiation pressure on condensing dust particles. Here, we investigate the onset of the wind, using nearby RGB stars drawn from the Hipparcos catalog. We find a sharp onset of dust production when the star first reaches a pulsation period of 60 days. This approximately coincides with the point where the star transitions to themore » first overtone pulsation mode. Models of the spectral energy distributions show stellar mass-loss rate suddenly increasing at this point, by a factor of ∼10 over the existing (chromospherically driven) wind. The dust emission is strongly correlated with both pulsation period and amplitude, indicating stellar pulsation is the main trigger for the strong mass loss, and determines the mass-loss rate. Dust emission does not strongly correlate with stellar luminosity, indicating radiation pressure on dust has little effect on the mass-loss rate. RGB stars do not normally appear to produce dust, whereas dust production by asymptotic giant branch stars appears commonplace, and is probably ubiquitous above the RGB-tip luminosity. We conclude that the strong wind begins with a step change in mass-loss rate and is triggered by stellar pulsations. A second rapid mass-loss-rate enhancement is suggested when the star transitions to the fundamental pulsation mode at a period of ∼300 days.« less
Towards multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records from coastal west Greenland ice caps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, Sarah B.; Osman, Matthew B.; Trusel, Luke D.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Smith, Ben E.; Evans, Matthew J.; Frey, Karen E.; Arienzo, Monica; Chellman, Nathan
2017-04-01
The Arctic region, and Greenland in particular, is undergoing dramatic change as characterized by atmospheric warming, decreasing sea ice, shifting ocean circulation patterns, and rapid ice sheet mass loss, but longer records are needed to put these changes into context. Ice core records from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded invaluable insight into past climate change both regionally and globally, and provided important constraints on past surface mass balance more directly, but these ice cores are most often from the interior ice sheet accumulation zone, at high altitude and hundreds of kilometers from the coast. Coastal ice caps, situated around the margins of Greenland, have the potential to provide novel high-resolution records of local and regional maritime climate and sea surface conditions, as well as contemporaneous glaciological changes (such as accumulation and surface melt history). But obtaining these records is extremely challenging. Most of these ice caps are unexplored, and thus their thickness, age, stratigraphy, and utility as sites of new and unique paleoclimate records is largely unknown. Access is severely limited due to their high altitude, steep relief, small surface area, and inclement weather. Furthermore, their relatively low elevation and marine moderated climate can contribute to significant surface melting and degradation of the ice stratigraphy. We recently targeted areas near the Disko Bay region of central west Greenland where maritime ice caps are prevalent but unsampled, as potential sites for new multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records. In 2014 & 2015 we identified two promising ice caps, one on Disko Island (1250 m. asl) and one on Nuussuaq Peninsula (1980 m. asl) based on airborne and ground-based geophysical observations and physical and glaciochemical stratigraphy from shallow firn cores. In spring 2015 we collected ice cores at both sites using the Badger-Eclipse electromechanical drill, transported by a medley
Bipolar nebulae and mass loss from red giant stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cohen, M.
1985-01-01
Observations of several bipolar nebulae are used to learn something of the nature of mass loss from the probable red-giant progenitors of these nebulae. Phenomena discussed are: (1) probable GL 2688's optical molecular emissions; (2) newly discovered very high velocity knots along the axis of OH 0739 - 14, which reveal evidence for mass ejections of + or 300 km/s from the M9 III star embedded in this nebula; (3) the bipolar structure of three extreme carbon stars, and the evidence for periodic mass ejection in IRC + 30219, also at high speed (about 80 km/s); and (4) the curious cool TiO-rich region above Parsamian 13, which may represent the very recent shedding of photospheric material from a cool, oxygen-rich giant. Several general key questions about bipolar nebulae that relate to the process of mass loss from their progenitor stars are raised.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stuhne, G. R.; Peltier, W. R.
2017-12-01
We analyze the effects of nudging 100 kyr numerical simulations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets toward the glacial isostatic adjustment-based (GIA-based) ICE-6G_C reconstruction of the most recent ice age cycle. Starting with the ice physics approximations of the PISM ice sheet model and the SeaRISE simulation protocols, we incorporate nudging at characteristic time scales, τf, through anomalous mass balance terms in the ice mass conservation equation. As should be expected, these mass balances exhibit physically unrealistic details arising from pure GIA-based reconstruction geometry when nudging is very strong (τf=20 years for North America), while weakly nudged (τf=1,000 years) solutions deviate from ICE-6G_C sufficiently to degrade its observational fit quality. For reasonable intermediate time scales (τf=100 years and 200 years), we perturbatively analyze nudged ice dynamics as a superposition of "leading-order smoothing" that diffuses ICE-6G_C in a physically and observationally consistent manner and "higher-order" deviations arising, for instance, from biases in the time dependence of surface climate boundary conditions. Based upon the relative deviations between respective nudged simulations in which these biases follow surface temperature from ice cores and eustatic sea level from marine sediment cores, we compute "ice core climate adjustments" that suggest how local paleoclimate observations may be applied to the systematic refinement of ICE-6G_C. Our results are consistent with a growing body of evidence suggesting that the geographical origins of Meltwater Pulse 1B (MWP1b) may lie primarily in North America as opposed to Antarctica (as reconstructed in ICE-6G_C).
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zwally, J.
1988-01-01
The surface topography of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets between 72 degrees north and south was mapped using radar altimetry data from the U.S. Navy GEOSAT. The glaciological objectives of this activity were to study the dynamics of the ice flow, changes in the position of floating ice-shelf fronts, and ultimately to measure temporal changes in ice surface elevation indicative of ice sheet mass balance.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flocco, D.; Laxon, S. W.; Feltham, D. L.; Haas, C.
2012-04-01
The GlobIce project has provided high resolution sea ice product datasets over the Arctic derived from SAR data in the ESA archive. The products are validated sea ice motion, deformation and fluxes through straits. GlobIce sea ice velocities, deformation data and sea ice concentration have been validated using buoy data provided by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). Over 95% of the GlobIce and buoy data analysed fell within 5 km of each other. The GlobIce Eulerian image pair product showed a high correlation with buoy data. The sea ice concentration product was compared to SSM/I data. An evaluation of the validity of the GlobICE data will be presented in this work. GlobICE sea ice velocity and deformation were compared with runs of the CICE sea ice model: in particular the mass fluxes through the straits were used to investigate the correlation between the winter behaviour of sea ice and the sea ice state in the following summer.
Ice core evidence for extensive melting of the greenland ice sheet in the last interglacial.
Koerner, R M
1989-05-26
Evidence from ice at the bottom of ice cores from the Canadian Arctic Islands and Camp Century and Dye-3 in Greenland suggests that the Greenland ice sheet melted extensively or completely during the last interglacial period more than 100 ka (thousand years ago), in contrast to earlier interpretations. The presence of dirt particles in the basal ice has previously been thought to indicate that the base of the ice sheets had melted and that the evidence for the time of original growth of these ice masses had been destroyed. However, the particles most likely blew onto the ice when the dimensions of the ice caps and ice sheets were much smaller. Ice texture, gas content, and other evidence also suggest that the basal ice at each drill site is superimposed ice, a type of ice typical of the early growth stages of an ice cap or ice sheet. If the present-day ice masses began their growth during the last interglacial, the ice sheet from the earlier (Illinoian) glacial period must have competely or largely melted during the early part of the same interglacial period. If such melting did occur, the 6-meter higher-than-present sea level during the Sangamon cannot be attributed to disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, as has been suggested.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deweaver, E. T.
2008-12-01
The dramatic sea ice decline of 2007 and lack of recovery in 2008 raise the question of a "tipping point" for Arctic sea ice, beyond which the transition to a seasonal sea ice state becomes abrupt and irreversible. The tipping point is essentially a "memory catastrophe", in which a dramatic loss of sea ice in one summer is "remembered" in reduced ice thickness over the winter season and leads to a comparably dramatic loss the following summer. The dominant contributor to this memory is presumably the sea ice - albedo feedback (SIAF), in which excess insolation absorbed due to low summer ice cover leads to a shorter ice growth season and hence thinner ice. While these dynamics are clearly important, they are difficult to quantify given the lack of long-term observations in the Arctic and the suddenness of the recent loss. Alternatively, we attempt to quantify the contribution of the SIAF to the year-to-year memory of sea ice cover anomalies in simulations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under 20th century conditions. Lagged autocorrelation plots of sea ice area anomalies show that anomalies in one year tend to "reemerge" in the following year. Further experiments using a slab ocean model (SOM) are used to assess the contribution of oceanic processes to the year-to-year reemergence. This contribution is substantial, particularly in the winter season, and includes memory due to the standard mixed layer reemergence mechanism and low-frequency ocean heat transport anomalies. The contribution of the SIAF to persistence in the SOM experiment is determined through additional experiments in which the SIAF is disabled by fixing surface albedo to its climatological value regardless of sea ice concentration anomalies. SIAF causes a 50% increase in the magnitude of the anomalies but a relatively small increase in their persistence. Persistence is not dramatically increased because the enhancement of shortwave flux anomalies by SIAF is compensated by stronger
Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.
2015-02-01
Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.
Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets
Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.
2015-01-01
Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tedesco, M.; Alexander, P.; Porter, D. F.; Fettweis, X.; Luthcke, S. B.; Mote, T. L.; Rennermalm, A.; Hanna, E.
2017-12-01
Despite recent changes in Greenland surface mass losses and atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, little attention has been given to the potential role of large-scale atmospheric processes on the spatial and temporal variability of mass loss and partitioning of the GrIS mass loss. Using a combination of satellite gravimetry measurements, outputs of the MAR regional climate model and reanalysis data, we show that changes in atmospheric patterns since 2013 over the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (NAA) modulate total mass loss trends over Greenland together with the spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss partitioning. For example, during the 2002 - 2012 period, melting persistently increased, especially along the west coast, as a consequence of increased insulation and negative NAO conditions characterizing that period. Starting in 2013, runoff along the west coast decreased while snowfall increased substantially, when NAO turned to a more neutral/positive state. Modeled surface mass balance terms since 1950 indicate that part of the GRACE-period, specifically the period between 2002 and 2012, was exceptional in terms of snowfall over the east and northeast regions. During that period snowfall trend decreased to almost 0 Gt/yr from a long-term increasing trend, which presumed again in 2013. To identify the potential impact of atmospheric patterns on mass balance and its partitioning, we studied the spatial and temporal correlations between NAO and snowfall/runoff. Our results indicate that the correlation between summer snowfall and NAO is not stable during the 1950 - 2015 period. We further looked at changes in patterns of circulation using self organizing maps (SOMs) to identify the atmospheric patterns characterizing snowfall during different periods. We discuss potential implications for past changes and future GCM and RCM simulations.
Abrupt Shift in the Observed Runoff from the Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahlstrom, A.; Petersen, D.; Box, J.; Langen, P. P.; Citterio, M.
2016-12-01
Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet has contributed significantly to sea level rise in recent years and is considered a crucial parameter when estimating the impact of future climate change. Few observational records of sufficient length exist to validate surface mass balance models, especially the estimated runoff. Here we present an observation time series from 1975-2014 of discharge from a large proglacial lake, Tasersiaq, in West Greenland (66.3°N, 50.4°W) with a mainly ice-covered catchment. We argue that the discharge time series is representative measure of ice sheet runoff, making it the only observational record of runoff to exceed the 30-year period needed to assess the climatological state of the ice sheet. We proceed to isolate the runoff part of the signal from precipitation and identified glacial lake outburst floods from a small sub-catchment. Similarly, the impact from major volcanic eruptions is clearly identified. We examine the trend and annual variability in the annual discharge, relating it to likely atmospheric forcing mechanisms and compare the observational time series with modelled runoff from the regional climate model HIRHAM.
Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun
2017-11-01
Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.
Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter
2018-01-01
Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.
Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.
2016-12-01
The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.
Methods and apparatus for rotor blade ice detection
LeMieux, David Lawrence
2006-08-08
A method for detecting ice on a wind turbine having a rotor and one or more rotor blades each having blade roots includes monitoring meteorological conditions relating to icing conditions and monitoring one or more physical characteristics of the wind turbine in operation that vary in accordance with at least one of the mass of the one or more rotor blades or a mass imbalance between the rotor blades. The method also includes using the one or more monitored physical characteristics to determine whether a blade mass anomaly exists, determining whether the monitored meteorological conditions are consistent with blade icing; and signaling an icing-related blade mass anomaly when a blade mass anomaly is determined to exist and the monitored meteorological conditions are determined to be consistent with icing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Babiker, M.; Johannessen, O. M.; Miles, M. W.; Miles, V. V.
2009-12-01
The major marine-terminating outlet glaciers of Greenland can undergo large mass losses through calving of icebergs and bottom melting from floating ice tongues. Recent observations of outlet glaiers around Greenland have shown that large and rapid changes in solid-ice fluxes are possible. The Petermann glacier in remote northern Greenland is the region’s largest floating-tongue glacier (~70 km by 10 km). In summer 2008 a large calving event was observed, as well as large cracks upstream of the remaining calving front, portending a more massive near-term loss. These observations may herald extraordinary and unprecedented change. However, the long-term variability of calving events and ice velocities are poorly known. Our research goal here is to identify the temporal variability and possible trends in solid-ice flux indicators - variability of the calving front and ice velocity - for Petermann glacier. The methodological approach is observational, based primarily on analysis of 20 years of repetitive satellite data over a period starting from 1990, together with sporadic earlier observations. The multisensor data range from high-resolution optical images from Landsat, SPOT and Terra ASTER and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from ERS and ENVISAT. These disparate data have been imported, geo-registered and analysed within a Geographic Information System. The following measurements are made: (1) delineating changes in the calving front, (2) estimating the area of glacial ice loss during calving events, and (3) estimating the ice-surface velocity using sequential satellite images. We find evidence of a number of previous calving episodes of similar magnitude to the summer 2008. The ice-velocity estimates compare well with other estimates for particular years, and moreover are relatively consistent during the 20-year period. These findings suggest business-as-usual for Petermann glacier; however, a near-term calving event exceeding those observed
A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.
2012-12-01
There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.
The Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Glacial-Interglacial Oceanic Forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tabone, I.; Blasco Navarro, J.; Robinson, A.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.
2017-12-01
Up to now, the scientific community has mainly focused on the sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to atmospheric variations. However, several studies suggest that the enhanced ice mass loss experienced by the GrIS in the past decades is directly connected to the increasing North Atlantic temperatures. Melting of GrIS outlet glaciers triggers grounding-line retreat increasing ice discharge into the ocean. This new evidence leads to consider the ocean as a relevant driver to be taken into account when modeling the evolution of the GrIS. The ice-ocean interaction is a primary factor controling not only the likely future retreat of GrIS outlet glaciers, or the huge ice loss in past warming climates, but also, and more strongly, the past GrIS glacial expansion. The latter assumption is supported by reconstructions which propose the GrIS to be fully marine-based during glacials, and thus more exposed to the influence of the ocean. Here, for the first time, we investigate the response of the GrIS to past oceanic changes using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet/ice-shelf model, which combines the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) for slow grounded ice sheets and the Shallow Shelf Approximation (SSA) in ice shelves and ice streams. The model accounts for a time-dependent parametrisation of the marine basal melting rate, which is used to reproduce past oceanic variations. In this work simulations of the last two glacial cycles are performed. Our results show that the GrIS is very sensitive to the ocean-triggered submarine melting (freezing). Mild oceanic temperature variations lead to a rapid retreat (expansion) of the GrIS margins, which, inducing a dynamic adjustment of the grounded ice sheet, drive the evolution of the whole ice sheet. Our results strongly suggest the need to consider the ocean as an active forcing in paleo ice sheet models.
The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.
2017-12-01
West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.
Switch of flow direction in an Antarctic ice stream.
Conway, H; Catania, G; Raymond, C F; Gades, A M; Scambos, T A; Engelhardt, H
2002-10-03
Fast-flowing ice streams transport ice from the interior of West Antarctica to the ocean, and fluctuations in their activity control the mass balance of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Ross Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now positive--that is, it is growing--mainly because one of the ice streams (ice stream C) slowed down about 150 years ago. Here we present evidence from both surface measurements and remote sensing that demonstrates the highly dynamic nature of the Ross drainage system. We show that the flow in an area that once discharged into ice stream C has changed direction, now draining into the Whillans ice stream (formerly ice stream B). This switch in flow direction is a result of continuing thinning of the Whillans ice stream and recent thickening of ice stream C. Further abrupt reorganization of the activity and configuration of the ice streams over short timescales is to be expected in the future as the surface topography of the ice sheet responds to the combined effects of internal dynamics and long-term climate change. We suggest that caution is needed when using observations of short-term mass changes to draw conclusions about the large-scale mass balance of the ice sheet.
Mass loss in red giants and supergiants
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sanner, F.
1976-01-01
The circumstellar envelopes surrounding 13 late-type giants and supergiants have been studied using a homogeneous collection of high-resolution, photoelectric scans of strong optical resonance lines. Various properties of the envelopes, including the mass loss rate, dilution factor, hydrogen density, and degree of ionization, have been determined quantitatively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bell, R. E.; Frearson, N.; Tinto, K. J.; Das, I.; Fricker, H. A.; Siddoway, C. S.; Padman, L.
2017-12-01
The future stability of the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica will be susceptible to increases in both surface and basal melt as the atmosphere and ocean warm. The ROSETTA-Ice program is targeted at using the ICEPOD airborne technology to produce new constraints on Ross Ice Shelf, the underlying ocean, bathymetry, and geologic setting, using radar sounding, gravimetry and laser altimetry. This convergent approach to studying the ice-shelf and basal processes enables us to develop an understanding of the fundamental controls on ice-shelf evolution. This work leverages the stratigraphy of the ice shelf, which is detected as individual reflectors by the shallow-ice radar and is often associated with surface scour, form close to the grounding line or pinning points on the ice shelf. Surface accumulation on the ice shelf buries these reflectors as the ice flows towards the calving front. This distinctive stratigraphy can be traced across the ice shelf for the major East Antarctic outlet glaciers and West Antarctic ice streams. Changes in the ice thickness below these reflectors are a result of strain and basal melting and freezing. Correcting the estimated thickness changes for strain using RIGGS strain measurements, we can develop decadal-resolution flowline distributions of basal melt. Close to East Antarctica elevated melt-rates (>1 m/yr) are found 60-100 km from the calving front. On the West Antarctic side high melt rates primarily develop within 10 km of the calving front. The East Antarctic side of Ross Ice Shelf is dominated by melt driven by saline water masses that develop in Ross Sea polynyas, while the melting on the West Antarctic side next to Hayes Bank is associated with modified Continental Deep Water transported along the continental shelf. The two sides of Ross Ice Shelf experience differing basal melt in part due to the duality in the underlying geologic structure: the East Antarctic side consists of relatively dense crust, with low amplitude
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus
2015-08-01
Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.
The interaction of propionic and butyric acids with ice and HNO₃-doped ice surfaces at 195-212 K.
Romanias, Manolis N; Papadimitriou, Vassileios C; Papagiannakopoulos, Panos
2014-12-04
The interaction of propionic and butyric acids on ice and HNO3-doped ice were studied between 195 and 212 K and low concentrations, using a Knudsen flow reactor coupled with a quadrupole mass spectrometer. The initial uptake coefficients (γ0) of propionic and butyric acids on ice as a function of temperature are given by the expressions: γ0(T) = (7.30 ± 1.0) × 10(-10) exp[(3216 ± 478)/T] and γ0(T) = (6.36 ± 0.76) × 10(-11) exp[(3810 ± 434)/T], respectively; the quoted error limits are at 95% level of confidence. Similarly, γ0 of propionic acid on 1.96 wt % (A) and 7.69 wt % (B) HNO3-doped ice with temperature are given as γ(0,A)(T) = (2.89 ± 0.26) × 10(-8) exp[(2517 ± 266)/T] and γ(0,B)(T) = (2.77 ± 0.29) × 10(-7) exp[(2126 ± 206)/T], respectively. The results show that γ0 of C1 to C4 n-carboxylic acids on ice increase with the alkyl-group length, due to lateral interactions between alkyl-groups that favor a more perpendicular orientation and well packing of H-bonded monomers on ice. The high uptakes (>10(15) molecules cm(-2)) and long recovery signals indicate efficient growth of random multilayers above the first monolayer driven by significant van der Waals interactions. The heterogeneous loss of both acids on ice and HNO3-doped ice particles in dense cirrus clouds is estimated to take a few minutes, signifying rapid local heterogeneous removal by dense cirrus clouds.
Core-powered mass-loss and the radius distribution of small exoplanets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ginzburg, Sivan; Schlichting, Hilke E.; Sari, Re'em
2018-05-01
Recent observations identify a valley in the radius distribution of small exoplanets, with planets in the range 1.5-2.0 R⊕ significantly less common than somewhat smaller or larger planets. This valley may suggest a bimodal population of rocky planets that are either engulfed by massive gas envelopes that significantly enlarge their radius, or do not have detectable atmospheres at all. One explanation of such a bimodal distribution is atmospheric erosion by high-energy stellar photons. We investigate an alternative mechanism: the luminosity of the cooling rocky core, which can completely erode light envelopes while preserving heavy ones, produces a deficit of intermediate sized planets. We evolve planetary populations that are derived from observations using a simple analytical prescription, accounting self-consistently for envelope accretion, cooling and mass-loss, and demonstrate that core-powered mass-loss naturally reproduces the observed radius distribution, regardless of the high-energy incident flux. Observations of planets around different stellar types may distinguish between photoevaporation, which is powered by the high-energy tail of the stellar radiation, and core-powered mass-loss, which depends on the bolometric flux through the planet's equilibrium temperature that sets both its cooling and mass-loss rates.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ke, L.; Ding, X.; Song, C.; Sheng, Y.
2016-12-01
Temperate glaciers can be highly sensitive to global climate change due to relatively humid and warm local climate. Numerous temperate glaciers are distributed in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) and their changes are still poorly represented. Based on a latest glacier inventory and ICESat altimetry measurements, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of glacier change in the SETP (including the central and eastern Nyainqêntanglha ranges) and further analyze its relation with climate change by using station-based and gridded meteorological data. Our results show that SETP glaciers experienced drastic surface lowering at about -0.84±0.26 m a-1 on average over 2003-2008. Debris-covered ice thinned at an average rate of -1.13±0.32 m a-1, in comparison with -0.92±0.17 m a-1 over the debris-free ice areas. The thinning rate is the strongest in the southeastern sub-region (up to -1.24 m a-1 ) and moderate ( -0.45 m a-1 ) in the central and northwestern parts, which is in general agreement with the pattern of surface mass changes based on the GRACE gravimetry observation. Long-term climate data at weather stations show that, in comparison with the period of 1992-2002, mean temperature increased by 0.46 °C - 0.59 °C in the recent decade (2003-2013); while the change of summer precipitation exhibited remarkably spatial variability, following a southeast-northwest contrasting pattern (decreasing by over 10% in the southeast, to stable level in the central region, and increment up to 10% in the northwest). This spatially variable precipitation change is consistent with results from CN05 grid data and ERA re-analysis data, and agrees well with the spatial pattern of glacier surface elevation changes. The results suggest that overall negative glacier mass balances in SETP are governed by temperature rising, while the different precipitation change could contribute to inconsistent glacier thinning rates. The spatial pattern of precipitation decrease and mass loss might
Probing Pre-Supernova Mass Loss With Circumstellar Dust Shells
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fox, Ori; Filippenko, Alex; Skrutskie, Mike; van Dyk, Schuyler; Kelly, Pat
2014-12-01
Late-time (>100 day) mid-infrared (mid-IR) observations of supernovae (SNe) offer a valuable probe of the progenitor system's mass-loss. Already, this technique has been demonstrated with the Type IIn subclass, which often have large, dusty, pre-existing shells formed in pre-SN eruptions. While other SN subclasses are thought of having relatively low density circumstellar environments, a growing number of objects in other subclasses now show evidence for significant pre-SN mass loss and similar mid-IR characteristics. Long after the SN radioactive tail fades, warm dust can stay bright at mid-IR wavelengths due to alternative heating mechanisms, such as shocks. Here we propose a SNAPSHOT survey of a well-studied and high-profile SN sample, extending over a range of subclasses, including both recent and historical events with evidence of a dense CSM and/or dust. This program will (a) discover new SNe with warm dust and (b) monitor the evolution of warm dust in previously detected SNe. Harnessing the success of our previous Spitzer programs, these observations will expand upon that work by probing the similarities in and differences between the subclasses' circumstellar environments, pre-SN mass-loss, and ultimately, the progenitors themselves.
Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.
2017-12-01
The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision
Using satellite laser ranging to measure ice mass change in Greenland and Antarctica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonin, Jennifer A.; Chambers, Don P.; Cheng, Minkang
2018-01-01
A least squares inversion of satellite laser ranging (SLR) data over Greenland and Antarctica could extend gravimetry-based estimates of mass loss back to the early 1990s and fill any future gap between the current Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the future GRACE Follow-On mission. The results of a simulation suggest that, while separating the mass change between Greenland and Antarctica is not possible at the limited spatial resolution of the SLR data, estimating the total combined mass change of the two areas is feasible. When the method is applied to real SLR and GRACE gravity series, we find significantly different estimates of inverted mass loss. There are large, unpredictable, interannual differences between the two inverted data types, making us conclude that the current 5×5 spherical harmonic SLR series cannot be used to stand in for GRACE. However, a comparison with the longer IMBIE time series suggests that on a 20-year time frame, the inverted SLR series' interannual excursions may average out, and the long-term mass loss estimate may be reasonable.
Modelled ocean changes at the Plio-Pleistocene transition driven by Antarctic ice advance
Hill, Daniel J.; Bolton, Kevin P.; Haywood, Alan M.
2017-01-01
The Earth underwent a major transition from the warm climates of the Pliocene to the Pleistocene ice ages between 3.2 and 2.6 million years ago. The intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation is the most obvious result of the Plio-Pleistocene transition. However, recent data show that the ocean also underwent a significant change, with the convergence of deep water mass properties in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that the lack of coastal ice in the Pacific sector of Antarctica leads to major reductions in Pacific Ocean overturning and the loss of the modern North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) mass in climate models of the warmest periods of the Pliocene. These results potentially explain the convergence of global deep water mass properties at the Plio-Pleistocene transition, as Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) became the common source. PMID:28252023
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oliver, Michael J.
2014-01-01
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.
Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Leads Detection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ackerman, S. A.; Hoffman, J.; Liu, Y.; Key, J. R.
2016-12-01
Sea ice leads (fractures) play a critical role in the exchange of mass and energy between the ocean and atmosphere in the polar regions, particularly in the Arctic. Leads result in warming water and accelerated melting because leads absorb more solar energy than the surrounding ice. In the autumn, winter, and spring leads impact the local atmospheric structure and cloud properties because of the large flux of heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Given the rapid thinning and loss of Arctic sea ice over the last few decades, changes in the distribution of leads can be expected in response. Leads are largely wind driven, so their distributions will also be affected by the changes in atmospheric circulation that have occurred. From a climate perspective, identifying trends in lead characteristics (width, orientation, and spatial distribution) will advance our understanding of both thermodynamic and mechanical processes. This study presents the spatial and temporal distributions of Arctic sea ice leads since 2002 using a new method to detect and characterize sea ice leads with optical (visible, infrared) satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Using reflective and emissive channels, ice concentration is derived in cloud-free regions and used to create a mask of potential leads. An algorithm then uses a combination of image processing techniques to identify and characterizes leads. The results show interannual variability of leads positioning as well as parameters such as area, length, orientation and width.
Mass loss in M67 giants - Evidence from isochrone fitting
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tripicco, Michael J.; Dorman, Ben; Bell, R. A.
1993-01-01
A comparison between the color-magnitude diagram of M67 and a new set of theoretical evolutionary models which include all phases from the unevolved main-sequence through core-helium burning and onto the AGB is presented. The present 5-Gyr solar abundance isochrone is found to yield an excellent fit to the whole of the M67 color-magnitude diagram. A differential technique that compares the gap in color between clump giants and normal red giants, on one hand, with the temperature gap between core He-burning tracks and first-ascent RGB tracks, on the other, strongly indicates that the clump giants in M67 have masses of 0.70 solar mass or less. The extremely large amount of mass loss that is deduced is well in excess of that found for globular cluster stars. Possible resolutions of this problem are that degree of mass loss increases with total stellar mass, or with metallicity.
MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet
Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa
2017-01-01
Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate–ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland’s contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9–7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1–3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely. PMID:28681860
MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa
2017-07-01
Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ~7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.
MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet.
Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa
2017-07-06
Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.
Radar evidence for ice in lobate debris aprons in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Safaeinili, Ali; Holt, John W.; Phillips, Roger J.; Head, James W.; Seu, Roberto; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Frigeri, Alessandro
2009-01-01
Subsurface radar sounding data indicate that lobate debris aprons found in Deuteronilus Mensae in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars are composed predominantly of water ice. The position in time delay and the relatively low amount of signal loss of the apparent basal reflectors below the debris aprons indicate that aprons contain only a minor component of lithic material. The current presence of large ice masses at these latitudes has important implications for the climate evolution of Mars, and for future targets for in situ exploration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Q.; Amelung, F.; Wdowinski, S.
2017-12-01
The Greenland ice sheet is rapidly shrinking with the fastest retreat and thinning occurring at the ice sheet margin and near the outlet glaciers. The changes of the ice mass cause an elastic response of the bedrock. Theoretically, ice mass loss during the summer melting season is associated with bedrock uplift, whereas increasing ice mass during the winter months is associated with bedrock subsidence. Here we examine the annual changes of the vertical displacements measured at 37 GPS stations and compare the results with Greenland drainage basins' gravity from GRACE. We use both Fourier Series (FS) analysis and Cubic Smoothing Spline (CSS) method to estimate the phases and amplitudes of seasonal variations. Both methods show significant differences seasonal behaviors in southern and northern Greenland. The average amplitude of bedrock displacements (3.29±0.02mm) in south Greenland is about 2 times larger than the north (1.65±0.02mm). The phase of bedrock maximum uplift (November) is considerably consistent with the time of minimum ice mass load in south Greenland (October). However, the phase of bedrock maximum uplift in north Greenland (February) is 4 months later than the minimum ice mass load in north Greenland basins (October). In addition, we present ground deformation near several famous glaciers in Greenland such as Petermann glacier and Jakobshavn glacier. We process InSAR data from TerraSAR-X and Sentinel satellite, based on small baseline interferograms. We observed rapid deglaciation-induced uplift and seasonal variations on naked bedrock near the glacier ice margin.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, Sam; Addy, Harold; Broeren, Andy P.; Orchard, David M.
2017-01-01
A test was conducted at NASA Icing Research Tunnel to evaluate altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protection system. Two scaling methods based on Weber number were compared against a method based on the Reynolds number. The results generally agreed with the previous set of tests conducted in NRCC Altitude Icing Wind Tunnel. The Weber number based scaling methods resulted in smaller runback ice mass than the Reynolds number based scaling method. The ice accretions from the Weber number based scaling method also formed farther upstream. However there were large differences in the accreted ice mass between the two Weber number based scaling methods. The difference became greater when the speed was increased. This indicated that there may be some Reynolds number effects that isnt fully accounted for and warrants further study.
Ice Flow in the North East Greenland Ice Stream
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Joughin, Ian; Kwok, Ron; Fahnestock, M.; MacAyeal, Doug
1999-01-01
Early observations with ERS-1 SAR image data revealed a large ice stream in North East Greenland (Fahnestock 1993). The ice stream has a number of the characteristics of the more closely studied ice streams in Antarctica, including its large size and gross geometry. The onset of rapid flow close to the ice divide and the evolution of its flow pattern, however, make this ice stream unique. These features can be seen in the balance velocities for the ice stream (Joughin 1997) and its outlets. The ice stream is identifiable for more than 700 km, making it much longer than any other flow feature in Greenland. Our research goals are to gain a greater understanding of the ice flow in the northeast Greenland ice stream and its outlet glaciers in order to assess their impact on the past, present, and future mass balance of the ice sheet. We will accomplish these goals using a combination of remotely sensed data and ice sheet models. We are using satellite radar interferometry data to produce a complete maps of velocity and topography over the entire ice stream. We are in the process of developing methods to use these data in conjunction with existing ice sheet models similar to those that have been used to improve understanding of the mechanics of flow in Antarctic ice streams.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A.; Nagarajan, S.; Babonis, G. S.
2010-12-01
Investigations of ice sheet mass balance and the changing dynamics of outlet glaciers have been hampered by the lack of comprehensive data. In recent years, this situation has been remedied. Satellite laser altimetry data from the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat), combined with airborne laser altimetry, provide accurate measurements of surface elevation changes, and surface velocities derived from various satellite platforms yield crucial information on changing glacier dynamics. Taken together, a rich and diverse data set is emerging that allows for characterizing the spatial and temporal evolution of ice sheets and outlet glaciers. In particular, it enables quantitative studies of outlet glaciers undergoing rapid and complex changes. Although airborne and laser altimetry have been providing precise measurements of ice sheet topography since the early 1990s, determining detailed and accurate spatial and temporal distribution of surface changes remains a challenging problem. We have developed a new, comprehensive method, called Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC), which estimates surface changes by a simultaneous reconstruction of surface topography from fused multisensor data. The mathematical model is based on the assumption that for a small surface area, only the absolute elevation changes over time but not the shape of the surface patch. Therefore, laser points of all time epochs contribute to the shape parameters; points of each time period determine the absolute elevation of the surface patch at that period. This method provides high-resolution surface topography, precise changes and a rigorous error estimate of the quantities. By using SERAC we combined ICESat and ATM laser altimetry data to determine the evolution of surface change rates of the whole Greenland Ice Sheet between 2003 and 2009 on a high-resolution grid. Our reconstruction, consistent with GRACE results, shows ice sheet thinning propagating
Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.
2011-05-01
Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets - Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)- continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km a-1 by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km a-1 after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea-level rise would average about 1.5 mm a-1.
Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.
2011-01-01
Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.
Form and flow of the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap, Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dowdeswell, J. A.; Bassford, R. P.; Gorman, M. R.; Williams, M.; Glazovsky, A. F.; Macheret, Y. Y.; Shepherd, A. P.; Vasilenko, Y. V.; Savatyuguin, L. M.; Hubberten, H.-W.; Miller, H.
2002-04-01
The 5,575-km2 Academy of Sciences Ice Cap is the largest in the Russian Arctic. A 100-MHz airborne radar, digital Landsat imagery, and satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry are used to investigate its form and flow, including the proportion of mass lost through iceberg calving. The ice cap was covered by a 10-km-spaced grid of radar flight paths, and the central portion was covered by a grid at 5-km intervals: a total of 1,657 km of radar data. Digital elevation models (DEMs) of ice surface elevation, ice thickness, and bed elevation data sets were produced (cell size 500 m). The DEMs were used in the selection of a deep ice core drill site. Total ice cap volume is 2,184 km3 (~5.5 mm sea level equivalent). The ice cap has a single dome reaching 749 m. Maximum ice thickness is 819 m. About 200 km, or 42%, of the ice margin is marine. About 50% of the ice cap bed is below sea level. The central divide of the ice cap and several major drainage basins, in the south and east of the ice cap and of up to 975 km2, are delimited from satellite imagery. There is no evidence of past surge activity on the ice cap. SAR interferometric fringes and phase-unwrapped velocities for the whole ice cap indicate slow flow in the interior and much of the margin, punctuated by four fast flowing features with lateral shear zones and maximum velocity of 140 m yr-1. These ice streams extend back into the slower moving ice to within 5-10 km of the ice cap crest. They have lengths of 17-37 km and widths of 4-8 km. Mass flux from these ice streams is ~0.54 km3 yr-1. Tabular icebergs up to ~1.7 km long are produced. Total iceberg flux from the ice cap is ~0.65 km3 yr-1 and probably represents ~40% of the overall mass loss, with the remainder coming from surface melting. Driving stresses are generally lowest (<40 kPa) close to the ice cap divides and in several of the ice streams. Ice stream motion is likely to include a significant basal component and may involve deformable
Ice-shelf melting around Antarctica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rignot, E.; Jacobs, S.
2008-12-01
The traditional view on the mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves is that they loose mass principally from iceberg calving with bottom melting a much lower contributing factor. Because ice shelves are now known to play a fundamental role in ice sheet evolution, it is important to re-evaluate their wastage processes from a circumpolar perspective using a combination of remote sensing techniques. We present area average rates deduced from grounding line discharge, snow accumulation, firn depth correction and ice shelf topography. We find that ice shelf melting accounts for roughly half of ice-shelf ablation, with a total melt water production of 1027 Gt/yr. The attrition fraction due to in-situ melting varies from 9 to 90 percent around Antarctica. High melt producers include the Ronne, Ross, Getz, Totten, Amery, George VI, Pine Island, Abbot, Dotson/Crosson, Shackleton, Thwaites and Moscow University Ice Shelves. Low producers include the Larsen C, Princess Astrid and Ragnhild coast, Fimbul, Brunt and Filchner. Correlation between melt water production and grounding line discharge is low (R2 = 0.65). Correlation with thermal ocean forcing from the ocean are highest in the northern parts of West Antarctica where regressions yield R2 of 0.93-0.97. Melt rates in the Amundsen Sea exhibit a quadratic sensitivity to thermal ocean forcing. We conclude that ice shelf melting plays a dominant role in ice shelf mass balance, with a potential to change rapidly in response to altered ocean heat transport onto the Antarctic continental shelf.
van Wijk, Esmee
2018-01-01
Strong heat loss and brine release during sea ice formation in coastal polynyas act to cool and salinify waters on the Antarctic continental shelf. Polynya activity thus both limits the ocean heat flux to the Antarctic Ice Sheet and promotes formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW), the precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water. However, despite the presence of strong polynyas, DSW is not formed on the Sabrina Coast in East Antarctica and in the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica. Using a simple ocean model driven by observed forcing, we show that freshwater input from basal melt of ice shelves partially offsets the salt flux by sea ice formation in polynyas found in both regions, preventing full-depth convection and formation of DSW. In the absence of deep convection, warm water that reaches the continental shelf in the bottom layer does not lose much heat to the atmosphere and is thus available to drive the rapid basal melt observed at the Totten Ice Shelf on the Sabrina Coast and at the Dotson and Getz ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Our results suggest that increased glacial meltwater input in a warming climate will both reduce Antarctic Bottom Water formation and trigger increased mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with consequences for the global overturning circulation and sea level rise. PMID:29675467
Silvano, Alessandro; Rintoul, Stephen Rich; Peña-Molino, Beatriz; Hobbs, William Richard; van Wijk, Esmee; Aoki, Shigeru; Tamura, Takeshi; Williams, Guy Darvall
2018-04-01
Strong heat loss and brine release during sea ice formation in coastal polynyas act to cool and salinify waters on the Antarctic continental shelf. Polynya activity thus both limits the ocean heat flux to the Antarctic Ice Sheet and promotes formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW), the precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water. However, despite the presence of strong polynyas, DSW is not formed on the Sabrina Coast in East Antarctica and in the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica. Using a simple ocean model driven by observed forcing, we show that freshwater input from basal melt of ice shelves partially offsets the salt flux by sea ice formation in polynyas found in both regions, preventing full-depth convection and formation of DSW. In the absence of deep convection, warm water that reaches the continental shelf in the bottom layer does not lose much heat to the atmosphere and is thus available to drive the rapid basal melt observed at the Totten Ice Shelf on the Sabrina Coast and at the Dotson and Getz ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Our results suggest that increased glacial meltwater input in a warming climate will both reduce Antarctic Bottom Water formation and trigger increased mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with consequences for the global overturning circulation and sea level rise.
Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...
2016-02-01
Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less
Towards development of an operational snow on sea ice product
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stroeve, J.; Liston, G. E.; Barrett, A. P.; Tschudi, M. A.; Stewart, S.
2017-12-01
Sea ice has been visibly changing over the past couple of decades; most notably the annual minimum extent which has shown a distinct downward, and recently accelerating, trend. September mean sea ice extent was over 7×106 km2 in the 1980's, but has averaged less than 5×106 km2 in the last decade. Should this loss continue, there will be wide-ranging impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal communities, prospects for resource extraction and marine activity, and weather conditions in the Arctic and beyond. While changes in the spatial extent of sea ice have been routinely monitored since the 1970s, less is known about how the thickness of the ice cover has changed. While estimates of ice thickness across the Arctic Ocean have become available over the past 20 years based on data from ERS-1/2, Envisat, ICESat, CryoSat-2 satellites and Operation IceBridge aircraft campaigns, the variety of these different measurement approaches, sensor technologies and spatial coverage present formidable challenges. Key among these is that measurement techniques do not measure ice thickness directly - retrievals also require snow depth and density. Towards that end, a sophisticated snow accumulation model is tested in a Lagrangian framework to map daily snow depths across the Arctic sea ice cover using atmospheric reanalysis data as input. Accuracy of the snow accumulation is assessed through comparison with Operation IceBridge data and ice mass balance buoys (IMBs). Impacts on ice thickness retrievals are further discussed.
30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.
2003-01-01
Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.
First investigations of an ice core from Eisriesenwelt cave (Austria)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
May, B.; Spötl, C.; Wagenbach, D.; Dublyansky, Y.; Liebl, J.
2010-09-01
Investigations into the genesis and dynamical properties of cave ice are essential for assessing the climate significance of these underground glaciers. We drilled an ice core through a 7.1 m thick ice body filling a large cavern of the dynamic ice cave Eisenriesenwelt (Austria). In addition to visual core inspections, quasi-continuous measurements at 2 cm resolution comprised particulate matter, stable water isotope (δ18O, δD) and electrolytic conductivity profiles supplemented by specifically selected samples analysed for tritium and radiocarbon. We found that recent ablation led to an almost complete loss of bomb derived tritium removing any ice accumulated, since at least, the early fifties leaving the actual ice surface even below the natural tritium level. The small particulate organic masses made radiocarbon dating inconclusive, though a crude estimate gave a maximum ice age in the order of several thousand years. The visual stratigraphy and all investigated parameters showed a clear dichotomy between the upper 4 m and the bottom 3 m of the core, which points to a substantial change in the ice formation process. Main features of the core comprise the changing appearance and composition of distinct cyro-calcite layers, a extremely low total ion content and a surprisingly high variability of the isotope signature. Co-isotope evaluation (δD versus δ18O) of the core in comparison with data from precipitation and karst spring water clearly indicate that ice formation is governed by (slow) freezing of dripping water.
First investigations of an ice core from Eisriesenwelt cave (Austria)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
May, B.; Spötl, C.; Wagenbach, D.; Dublyansky, Y.; Liebl, J.
2011-02-01
Investigations into the genesis and dynamical properties of cave ice are essential for assessing the climate significance of these underground glaciers. We drilled an ice core through a 7.1 m-thick ice body filling a large cavern of the dynamic ice cave Eisenriesenwelt (Austria). In addition to visual core inspections, quasi-continuous measurements at 2 cm resolution comprised particulate matter, stable water isotope (δ18O, δD) and electrolytic conductivity profiles supplemented by specifically selected samples analyzed for tritium and radiocarbon. We found that recent ablation led to an almost complete loss of bomb-derived tritium removing any ice accumulated since, at least, the early fifties leaving the actual ice surface even below the natural tritium level. The small particulate organic masses rendered radiocarbon dating inconclusive, though a crude estimate gave a basal ice age in the order of several thousand years. The visual stratigraphy and all investigated parameters showed a clear dichotomy between the upper 2 m and the bottom 3 m of the core, which points to a substantial change in the ice formation process. Main features of the core comprise the changing appearance and composition of distinct cryocalcite layers, extremely low total ion content and a surprisingly high variability of the isotope signature. Co-isotope evaluation (δD versus δ18O) of the core in comparison with data from precipitation and karst spring water clearly indicate that ice formation is governed by (slow) freezing of dripping water.
Mass loss from red giants - Results from ultraviolet spectroscopy
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Linsky, J. L.
1985-01-01
New instrumentation in space, primarily the IUE spacecraft, has enabled the application of ultraviolet spectroscopic techniques to the determination of physical properties and reliable mass loss rates for red giant winds. One important result is the determination of where in the H-R diagram are found stars with hot outer atmospheres and with cool winds. So far it appears that single cool stars, except perhaps the so-called hybrid stars, have either hot outer atmospheres or cool winds but not both. The C II resonance (1335 A) and intersystem (2325 A) multiplets have been used to derive temperatures, densities, and geometrical extents for the chromospheric portions of red giant winds, with the result that the red giants and the earlier giants with hot coronae have qualitatively different chromospheres. Mass loss rates can now be derived accurately from the analysis of asymmetric emission lines, such as the Mg II resonance lines, and from P Cygni profile lines of atoms in the dominant ionization stage when a hot star is available to probe the wind of a red giant. The Zeta Aur systems, consisting of a K-M supergiant and a main sequence B star are important systems for reliable mass loss rates for the red supergiant components are becoming available.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Riebel, D.; Srinivasan, S.; Sargent, B.; Meixner, M.
2012-07-01
We present results from the first application of the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch ModelS (GRAMS) model grid to the entire evolved stellar population of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). GRAMS is a pre-computed grid of 80,843 radiative transfer models of evolved stars and circumstellar dust shells composed of either silicate or carbonaceous dust. We fit GRAMS models to ~30,000 asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and red supergiant (RSG) stars in the LMC, using 12 bands of photometry from the optical to the mid-infrared. Our published data set consists of thousands of evolved stars with individually determined evolutionary parameters such as luminosity and mass-loss rate. The GRAMS grid has a greater than 80% accuracy rate discriminating between oxygen- and carbon-rich chemistry. The global dust injection rate to the interstellar medium (ISM) of the LMC from RSGs and AGB stars is on the order of 2.1 × 10-5 M ⊙ yr-1, equivalent to a total mass injection rate (including the gas) into the ISM of ~6 × 10-3 M ⊙ yr-1. Carbon stars inject two and a half times as much dust into the ISM as do O-rich AGB stars, but the same amount of mass. We determine a bolometric correction factor for C-rich AGB stars in the K s band as a function of J - K s color, BC_{K_{s}} = -0.40(J-K_{s})^2 + 1.83(J-K_{s}) + 1.29. We determine several IR color proxies for the dust mass-loss rate (\\dot{M}_{d}) from C-rich AGB stars, such as log \\dot{M_{d}} = ({-18.90}/({(K_{s}-[8.0])+3.37}))-5.93. We find that a larger fraction of AGB stars exhibiting the "long-secondary period" phenomenon are more O-rich than stars dominated by radial pulsations, and AGB stars without detectable mass loss do not appear on either the first-overtone or fundamental-mode pulsation sequences.
Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic
Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.
2015-01-01
In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323
Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic.
Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A
2015-07-13
In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
A Model Study of the Thermal Evolution of Astrophysical Ices
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Loeffler, M. J.; Teolis, B. D.; Baragiola, R. A.
2006-01-01
We address the question of the evolution of ices that have been exposed to radiation from stellar sources and cosmic rays. We studied in the laboratory the thermal evolution of a model ice sample: a mixture of water, hydrogen peroxide, dioxygen, and ozone produced by irradiating solid H2O2 with 50 keV H(+) at 17 K. The changes in composition and release of volatiles during warming to 200 K were monitored by infrared spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and microbalance techniques. We find evidence for voids in the water component from the infrared bands due to dangling H bonds. The absorption from these bands increases during heating and can be observed at temperatures as high as approx. 155 K. More O2 is stored in the radiolyzed film than can be retained by codeposition of O2 and H2O. This O2 remains trapped until approx. 155 K, where it desorbs in an outburst as water ice crystallizes. Warming of the ice also drastically decreases the intrinsic absorbance of O2 by annealing defects in the ice. We also observe loss of O3 in two stages during heating, which correlates with desorption and possibly chemical reactions with radicals stored in the ice, triggered by the temperature increase.
One hundred years of Arctic ice cover variations as simulated by a one-dimensional, ice-ocean model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hakkinen, S.; Mellor, G. L.
1990-09-01
A one-dimensional ice-ocean model consisting of a second moment, turbulent closure, mixed layer model and a three-layer snow-ice model has been applied to the simulation of Arctic ice mass and mixed layer properties. The results for the climatological seasonal cycle are discussed first and include the salt and heat balance in the upper ocean. The coupled model is then applied to the period 1880-1985, using the surface air temperature fluctuations from Hansen et al. (1983) and from Wigley et al. (1981). The analysis of the simulated large variations of the Arctic ice mass during this period (with similar changes in the mixed layer salinity) shows that the variability in the summer melt determines to a high degree the variability in the average ice thickness. The annual oceanic heat flux from the deep ocean and the maximum freezing rate and associated nearly constant minimum surface salinity flux did not vary significantly interannually. This also implies that the oceanic influence on the Arctic ice mass is minimal for the range of atmospheric variability tested.
Research opportunities in loss of red blood cell mass in space flight
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Talbot, J. M.; Fisher, K. D.
1985-01-01
Decreases of red blood cell mass and plasma volume have been observed consistently following manned space flights. Losses of red cell mass by United States astronauts have averaged 10 to 15% (range: 2 to 21%). Based on postflight estimates of total hemoglobin, Soviet cosmonauts engaged in space missions lasting from 1 to 7 months have exhibited somewhat greater losses. Restoration of red cell mass requires from 4 to 6 weeks following return to Earth, regardless of the duration of space flight.
Geological evidence for solid-state convection in Europa's ice shell.
Pappalardo, R T; Head, J W; Greeley, R; Sullivan, R J; Pilcher, C; Schubert, G; Moore, W B; Carr, M H; Moore, J M; Belton, M J; Goldsby, D L
1998-01-22
The ice-rich surface of the jovian satellite Europa is sparsely cratered, suggesting that this moon might be geologically active today. Moreover, models of the satellite's interior indicate that tidal interactions with Jupiter might produce enough heat to maintain a subsurface liquid water layer. But the mechanisms of interior heat loss and resurfacing are currently unclear, as is the question of whether Europa has (or had at one time) a liquid water ocean. Here we report on the morphology and geological interpretation of distinct surface features-pits, domes and spots-discovered in high-resolution images of Europa obtained by the Galileo spacecraft. The features are interpreted as the surface manifestation of diapirs, relatively warm localized ice masses that have risen buoyantly through the subsurface. We find that the formation of the features can be explained by thermally induced solid-state convection within an ice shell, possibly overlying a liquid water layer. Our results are consistent with the possibility that Europa has a liquid water ocean beneath a surface layer of ice, but further tests and observations are needed to demonstrate this conclusively.
Geological evidence for solid-state convection in Europa's ice shell
Pappalardo, R.T.; Head, J.W.; Greeley, R.; Sullivan, R.J.; Pilcher, C.; Schubert, G.; Moore, W.B.; Carr, M.H.; Moore, Johnnie N.; Belton, M.J.S.; Goldsby, D.L.
1998-01-01
The ice-rich surface of the jovian satellite Europa is sparsely cratered, suggesting that this moon might be geologically active today. Moreover, models of the satellite's interior indicate that tidal interactions with Jupiter might produce enough heat to maintain a subsurface liquid water layer. But the mechanisms of interior heat loss and resurfacing are currently unclear, as is the question of whether Europa has (or had at one time) a liquid water ocean. Here we report on the morphology and geological interpretation of distinct surface features-pits, domes and spots-discovered in high-resolution images of Europa obtained by the Galileo spacecraft. The features are interpreted as the surface manifestation of diapirs, relatively warm localized ice masses that have risen buoyantly through the subsurface. We find that the formation of the features can be explained by thermally induced solid-state convection within an ice shell, possibly overlying a liquid water layer. Our results are consistent with the possibility that Europa has a liquid water ocean beneath a surface layer of ice, but further tests and observations are needed to demonstrate this conclusively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.
2017-12-01
Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be
Airborne Tomographic Swath Ice Sounding Processing System
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wu, Xiaoqing; Rodriquez, Ernesto; Freeman, Anthony; Jezek, Ken
2013-01-01
Glaciers and ice sheets modulate global sea level by storing water deposited as snow on the surface, and discharging water back into the ocean through melting. Their physical state can be characterized in terms of their mass balance and dynamics. To estimate the current ice mass balance, and to predict future changes in the motion of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, it is necessary to know the ice sheet thickness and the physical conditions of the ice sheet surface and bed. This information is required at fine resolution and over extensive portions of the ice sheets. A tomographic algorithm has been developed to take raw data collected by a multiple-channel synthetic aperture sounding radar system over a polar ice sheet and convert those data into two-dimensional (2D) ice thickness measurements. Prior to this work, conventional processing techniques only provided one-dimensional ice thickness measurements along profiles.
Mass Loss at Higher Metallicity: Quantifying the Mass Return from Evolved Stars in the Galactic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sargent, Benjamin
Bulge Mass-losing evolved stars, and in particular asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars and red supergiant (RSG) stars, are expected to be the major producers of dust in galaxies. This dust will help form planetary systems around future generations of stars. Our ADAP program to measure the mass loss from the AGB and RSG stars in the Magellanic Clouds is nearing completion, and we wish to extend this successful study to the Galactic bulge of the Milky Way Galaxy. Metallicity should determine the amount of elements available to condense dust in the star's outflow, so evolved stars of differing metallicities should have differing mass-loss rates. Building upon our work on evolved stars in the Magellanic Clouds, we will compare the mass-loss rates from AGB and RSG stars in the older and potentially more metal-rich Bulge to the mass-loss rates of AGB and RSG stars in the Magellanic Clouds, which have lower metallicity, making for an interesting contrast. In addition, the Galactic bulge, like the Clouds, is located at a well-determined distance ( 8 kpc), thereby removing the distance ambiguities that present a major uncertainty in determining mass-loss rates and luminosities for evolved stars. To model photometric observations of outflowing dust shells around evolved stars, we have constructed the Grid of Red supergiant and Asymptotic giant branch ModelS (GRAMS; Sargent et al 2011; Srinivasan et al 2011) using the radiative transfer code 2Dust (Ueta and Meixner 2003). Our study will apply these models to the large photometric database of sources identified in the Spitzer Space Telescope GLIMPSE survey of the Milky Way and also to the various infrared spectra of Bulge AGB and RSG stars from Spitzer, ISO, etc. We have already modeled a few Galactic bulge evolved stars with GRAMS, and we will use these results as the foundation for modeling a large and representative sample of Galactic bulge evolved stars identified and measured photometrically by GLIMPSE. We will use our
Wang, Faming; Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar
2011-08-01
This paper addresses selection between two calculation options, i.e heat loss option and mass loss option, for thermal manikin measurements on clothing evaporative resistance conducted in an isothermal condition (T(manikin) = T(a) = T(r)). Five vocational clothing ensembles with a thermal insulation range of 1.05-2.58 clo were selected and measured on a sweating thermal manikin 'Tore'. The reasons why the isothermal heat loss method generates a higher evaporative resistance than that of the mass loss method were thoroughly investigated. In addition, an indirect approach was applied to determine the amount of evaporative heat energy taken from the environment. It was found that clothing evaporative resistance values by the heat loss option were 11.2-37.1% greater than those based on the mass loss option. The percentage of evaporative heat loss taken from the environment (H(e,env)) for all test scenarios ranged from 10.9 to 23.8%. The real evaporative cooling efficiency ranged from 0.762 to 0.891, respectively. Furthermore, it is evident that the evaporative heat loss difference introduced by those two options was equal to the heat energy taken from the environment. In order to eliminate the combined effects of dry heat transfer, condensation, and heat pipe on clothing evaporative resistance, it is suggested that manikin measurements on the determination of clothing evaporative resistance should be performed in an isothermal condition. Moreover, the mass loss method should be applied to calculate clothing evaporative resistance. The isothermal heat loss method would appear to overestimate heat stress and thus should be corrected before use.
Fat-free mass loss generated with weight loss in overweight and obese adults: What may we expect?
Dixon, J B; Lambert, E A; Grima, M; Rice, T; Lambert, G W; Straznicky, N E
2015-01-01
There is concern that intentional weight loss may generate excessive loss of fat-free mass (FFM). Idealists target minimal loss of FFM, while others consider that FFM loss of up to 25% of weight loss is acceptable. In a cross-sectional study of 275 weight-stable, overweight or obese adults, we used whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure FFM. A range of models was used to estimate the expected ΔFFM/Δweight ratio required to attain the body composition of a weight-stable individual at a lower body mass index (BMI). Higher BMI was associated linearly with higher FFM in men and women. Proportional ΔFFM/Δweight was influenced by sex, BMI and age. Direct scatter plot analysis, quadratic curve fit modelling and linear FFM-BMI modelling provided similar estimates for each model of ΔFFM/Δweight ratio, with 40% for men and 33% for women. These results show that the 25% rule is inappropriate and our estimates are higher than those generally reported after intentional weight loss indicating favourable preservation of FFM. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Highly reduced mass loss rates and increased litter layer in radioactively contaminated areas.
Mousseau, Timothy A; Milinevsky, Gennadi; Kenney-Hunt, Jane; Møller, Anders Pape
2014-05-01
The effects of radioactive contamination from Chernobyl on decomposition of plant material still remain unknown. We predicted that decomposition rate would be reduced in the most contaminated sites due to an absence or reduced densities of soil invertebrates. If microorganisms were the main agents responsible for decomposition, exclusion of large soil invertebrates should not affect decomposition. In September 2007 we deposited 572 bags with uncontaminated dry leaf litter from four species of trees in the leaf litter layer at 20 forest sites around Chernobyl that varied in background radiation by more than a factor 2,600. Approximately one quarter of these bags were made of a fine mesh that prevented access to litter by soil invertebrates. These bags were retrieved in June 2008, dried and weighed to estimate litter mass loss. Litter mass loss was 40% lower in the most contaminated sites relative to sites with a normal background radiation level for Ukraine. Similar reductions in litter mass loss were estimated for individual litter bags, litter bags at different sites, and differences between litter bags at pairs of neighboring sites differing in level of radioactive contamination. Litter mass loss was slightly greater in the presence of large soil invertebrates than in their absence. The thickness of the forest floor increased with the level of radiation and decreased with proportional loss of mass from all litter bags. These findings suggest that radioactive contamination has reduced the rate of litter mass loss, increased accumulation of litter, and affected growth conditions for plants.
Molecular shells in IRC+10216: tracing the mass loss history
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cernicharo, J.; Marcelino, N.; Agúndez, M.; Guélin, M.
2015-03-01
Thermally-pulsating AGB stars provide three-fourths of the matter returned to the interstellar medium. The mass and chemical composition of their ejecta largely control the chemical evolution of galaxies. Yet, both the mass loss process and the gas chemical composition remain poorly understood. We present maps of the extended 12CO and 13CO emissions in IRC+10216, the envelope of CW Leo, the high mass loss star the closest to the Sun. IRC+10216 is nearly spherical and expands radially with a velocity of 14.5 km s-1. The observations were made On-the-Fly with the IRAM 30 m telescope; their sensibility, calibration, and angular resolution are far higher than all previous studies. The telescope resolution at λ = 1.3 mm (11'' HPBW) corresponds to an expansion time of 500 yr. The CO emission consists of a centrally peaked pedestal and a series of bright, nearly spherical shells. It peaks on CW Leo and remains relatively strong up to rphot = 180''. Further out the emission becomes very weak and vanishes as CO gets photodissociated. As CO is the best tracer of the gas up to rphot, the maps show the mass loss history in the last 8000 yr. The bright CO shells denote over-dense regions. They show that the mass loss process is highly variable on timescales of hundreds of years. The new data, however, do not support previous claims of a strong decrease of the average mass loss in the last few thousand years. The over-dense shells are not perfectly concentric and extend farther to the N-NW. The typical shell separation is 800-1000 yr in the middle of the envelope, but seems to increase outwards. The shell-intershell brightness contrast is ≥3. All those key features can be accounted for if CW Leo has a companion star with a period ≃800 yr that increases the mass loss rate when it comes close to periastron. Higher angular resolution observations are needed to fully resolve the dense shells and measure the density contrast. The latter plays an essential role in our
Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.
2009-12-01
The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ivins, E. R.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Landerer, F. W.; Simms, A.; Yuan, D. N.; Boening, C.; Domack, E. W.
2014-12-01
The Antarctic Peninsula has been warming at an anomalously high rate with respect to other parts of the globe for the past 115 years. The increased atmospheric and ocean warmth has caused both increased precipitation and loss of buttressing near the trunks of the numerous outlet glaciers that drain into the ocean. The measurements by space gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment or 'GRACE') have been crucial to identifying the dominant role of losses in butressing in a decadal-scale total ice mass budget for the Peninsula north of about 69 °S. One of the major losses of butressing came at a time when the Larsen B Ice Shelf catastrophically disintegrated into the northernmost Weddell Sea in March of 2002, the same month that GRACE was launched into orbit. The solid Earth rebounded in phase with the speed-up of the unbutressed outlet glaciers as evidenced by GNSS station data. The process has been repeating itself throughout the northern Peninsula since the late 1980's. Larsen A Ice Shelf breakup (LAISb) occurred, for example, in the Austral summer of 1993. Rott et al. (2011) have estimated a velocity acceleration at the trunks of 11 LBISb outlet glaciers for which flux-gate mass transport can be measured. Butress loss caused an increase in discharge of 4.3 ± 1.6 Gt/a in 2008, relative to measurements that span 1995-1999 for 11 Larsen B feeding glaciers. GRACE analysis centers have now released 12 years of monthly solutions (RL05) for global mass change. Solutions for the region of the Peninsula north of 69 ° S (Graham Land) using both constrained and unconstrained mascon methods show 2003-2011 net ice loss to the oceans with a trend of greater than 32 Gt/yr (Ivins et al., 2011; Luthcke et al., 2013). A new set of mascon solutions developed by JPL (Wiese et al., 2014) provide a high-resolution look at the evolution of mass in the Antarctic Peninsula from 2003-2014. We employ a time-series from these solutions and discuss the evolution of mass changes
High Resolution Studies of Mass Loss from Massive Binary Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Corcoran, Michael F.; Gull, Theodore R.; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Richardson, Noel; Madura, Thomas; Post Russell, Christopher Michael; Teodoro, Mairan; Nichols, Joy S.; Moffat, Anthony F. J.; Shenar, Tomer; Pablo, Herbert
2017-01-01
Mass loss from hot luminous single and binary stars has a significant, perhaps decisive, effect on their evolution. The combination of X-ray observations of hot shocked gas embedded in the stellar winds and high-resolution optical/UV spectra of the cooler mass in the outflow provides unique ways to study the unstable process by which massive stars lose mass both through continuous stellar winds and rare, impulsive, large-scale mass ejections. The ability to obtain coordinated observations with the Hubble Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) and the Chandra High-Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (HETGS) and other X-ray observatories has allowed, for the first time, studies of resolved line emisssion over the temperature range of 104- 108K, and has provided observations to confront numerical dynamical models in three dimensions. Such observations advance our knowledge of mass-loss asymmetries, spatial and temporal variabilities, and the fundamental underlying physics of the hot shocked outflow, providing more realistic constraints on the amount of mass lost by different luminous stars in a variety of evolutionary stages. We discuss the impact that these joint observational studies have had on our understanding of dynamical mass outflows from massive stars, with particular emphasis on two important massive binaries, Delta Ori Aa, a linchpin of the mass luminosity relation for upper HRD main sequence stars, and the supermassive colliding wind binary Eta Carinae.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lei, Ruibo; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Leppäranta, Matti; Wang, Jia; Kaleschke, Lars; Zhang, Zhanhai
2016-08-01
SSM/I sea ice concentration and CLARA black-sky composite albedo were used to estimate sea ice albedo in the region 70°N-82°N, 130°W-180°W. The long-term trends and seasonal evolutions of ice concentration, composite albedo, and ice albedo were then obtained. In July-August 1982-2009, the linear trend of the composite albedo and the ice albedo was -0.069 and -0.046 units per decade, respectively. During 1 June to 19 August, melting of sea ice resulted in an increase of solar heat input to the ice-ocean system by 282 MJ·m-2 from 1982 to 2009. However, because of the counter-balancing effects of the loss of sea ice area and the enhanced ice surface melting, the trend of solar heat input to the ice was insignificant. The summer evolution of ice albedo matched the ice surface melting and ponding well at basin scale. The ice albedo showed a large difference between the multiyear and first-year ice because the latter melted completely by the end of a melt season. At the SHEBA geolocations, a distinct change in the ice albedo has occurred since 2007, because most of the multiyear ice has been replaced by first-year ice. A positive polarity in the Arctic Dipole Anomaly could be partly responsible for the rapid loss of summer ice within the study region in the recent years by bringing warmer air masses from the south and advecting more ice toward the north. Both these effects would enhance ice-albedo feedback.
Erfani, Ehsan; Mitchell, David L.
2016-04-07
Here, ice particle mass- and projected area-dimension ( m- D and A- D) power laws are commonly used in the treatment of ice cloud microphysical and optical properties and the remote sensing of ice cloud properties. Although there has long been evidence that a single m- D or A- D power law is often not valid over all ice particle sizes, few studies have addressed this fact. This study develops self-consistent m- D and A- D expressions that are not power laws but can easily be reduced to power laws for the ice particle size (maximum dimension or D) rangemore » of interest, and they are valid over a much larger D range than power laws. This was done by combining ground measurements of individual ice particle m and D formed at temperature T < –20 °C during a cloud seeding field campaign with 2-D stereo (2D-S) and cloud particle imager (CPI) probe measurements of D and A, and estimates of m, in synoptic and anvil ice clouds at similar temperatures. The resulting m- D and A- D expressions are functions of temperature and cloud type (synoptic vs. anvil), and are in good agreement with m- D power laws developed from recent field studies considering the same temperature range (–60 °C < T < –20 °C).« less
ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin
2017-04-01
Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research
March, Rod S.
2000-01-01
The 1995 measured winter snow, maximum winter snow, net, and annual balances in the Gulkana Glacier basin were evaluated on the basis of meteorological, hydrological, and glaciological data obtained in the basin. Averaged over the glacier, the measured winter snow balance was 0.94 meter on April 19, 1995, 0.6 standard deviation below the long-term average; the maximum winter snow balance, 0.94 meter, was reached on April 25, 1995; the net balance (from September 18, 1994 to August 29, 1995) was -0.70 meter, 0.76 standard deviation below the long-term average. The annual balance (October 1, 1994, to September 30, 1995) was -0.86 meter. Ice-surface motion and altitude changes measured at three index sites document seasonal ice speed and glacier-thickness changes. Annual stream runoff was 2.05 meters averaged over the basin, approximately equal to the long-term average. The 1976 ice-thickness data are reported from a single site near the highest measurement site (180 meters thick) and from two glacier cross profiles near the mid-glacier (270 meters thick on centerline) and low glacier (150 meters thick on centerline) measurement sites. A new area-altitude distribution determined from 1993 photogrammetry is reported. Area-averaged balances are reported from both the 1967 and 1993 area-altitude distribution so the reader may directly see the effect of the update. Briefly, loss of ablation area between 1967 and 1993 results in a larger weighting being applied to data from the upper glacier site and hence, increases calculated area-averaged balances. The balance increase is of the order of 15 percent for net balance.
Longest time series of glacier mass changes in the Himalaya based on stereo imagery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bolch, T.; Pieczonka, T.; Benn, D. I.
2010-12-01
Mass loss of Himalayan glaciers has wide-ranging consequences such as declining water resources, sea level rise and an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The assessment of the regional and global impact of glacier changes in the Himalaya is, however, hampered by a lack of mass balance data for most of the range. Multi-temporal digital terrain models (DTMs) allow glacier mass balance to be calculated since the availability of stereo imagery. Here we present the longest time series of mass changes in the Himalaya and show the high value of early stereo spy imagery such as Corona (years 1962 and 1970) aerial images and recent high resolution satellite data (Cartosat-1) to calculate a time series of glacier changes south of Mt. Everest, Nepal. We reveal that the glaciers are significantly losing mass with an increasing rate since at least ~1970, despite thick debris cover. The specific mass loss is 0.32 ± 0.08 m w.e. a-1, however, not higher than the global average. The spatial patterns of surface lowering can be explained by variations in debris-cover thickness, glacier velocity, and ice melt due to exposed ice cliffs and ponds.
Conditions for a steady ice sheet ice shelf junction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nowicki, S. M. J.; Wingham, D. J.
2008-01-01
This paper investigates the conditions under which a marine ice sheet may adopt a steady profile. The ice is treated as a linear viscous fluid caused to flow from a rigid base to and over water, treated as a denser but inviscid fluid. The solutions in the region around the point of flotation, or 'transition' zone, are calculated numerically. In-flow and out-flow conditions appropriate to ice sheet and ice shelf flow are applied at the ends of the transition zone and the rigid base is specified; the flow and steady free surfaces are determined as part of the solutions. The basal stress upstream, and the basal deflection downstream, of the flotation point are examined to determine which of these steady solutions satisfy 'contact' conditions that would prevent (i) the steady downstream basal deflection contacting the downstream base, and (ii) the upstream ice commencing to float in the event it was melted at the base. In the case that the upstream bed is allowed to slide, we find only one mass flux that satisfies the contact conditions. When no sliding is allowed at the bed, however, we find a range of mass fluxes satisfy the contact conditions. The effect of 'backpressure' on the solutions is investigated, and is found to have no affect on the qualitative behaviour of the junctions. To the extent that the numerical, linearly viscous treatment may be applied to the case of ice flowing out over the ocean, we conclude that when sliding is present, Weertman's 'instability' hypothesis holds.
Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Manucharyan, Georgy E.; Thompson, Andrew F.
2017-12-01
Signatures of ocean eddies, fronts, and filaments are commonly observed within marginal ice zones (MIZs) from satellite images of sea ice concentration, and in situ observations via ice-tethered profilers or underice gliders. However, localized and intermittent sea ice heating and advection by ocean eddies are currently not accounted for in climate models and may contribute to their biases and errors in sea ice forecasts. Here, we explore mechanical sea ice interactions with underlying submesoscale ocean turbulence. We demonstrate that the release of potential energy stored in meltwater fronts can lead to energetic submesoscale motions along MIZs with spatial scales O(10 km) and Rossby numbers O(1). In low-wind conditions, cyclonic eddies and filaments efficiently trap the sea ice and advect it over warmer surface ocean waters where it can effectively melt. The horizontal eddy diffusivity of sea ice mass and heat across the MIZ can reach O(200 m2 s-1). Submesoscale ocean variability also induces large vertical velocities (order 10 m d-1) that can bring relatively warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer. The ocean-sea ice heat fluxes are localized over cyclonic eddies and filaments reaching about 100 W m-2. We speculate that these submesoscale-driven intermittent fluxes of heat and sea ice can contribute to the seasonal evolution of MIZs. With the continuing global warming and sea ice thickness reduction in the Arctic Ocean, submesoscale sea ice-ocean processes are expected to become increasingly prominent.
Asynchronously Coupled Models of Ice Loss from Airless Planetary Bodies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schorghofer, N.
2016-12-01
Ice is found near the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, in some main belt asteroids, and perhaps in NEOs that will be explored or even mined in future. The simple but important question of how fast ice is lost from airless bodies can present computational challenges. The thermal cycle on the surface repeats on much shorter time-scales than ice retreats; one process acts on the time-scale of hours, the other over billions of years. This multi-scale situation is addressed with asynchronous coupling, where models with different time steps are woven together. The sharp contrast at the retreating ice table is dealt with with explicit interface tracking. For Ceres, which is covered with a thermally insulating dust mantle, desiccation rates are orders of magnitude slower than had been calculated with simpler models. More model challenges remain: The role of impact devolatization and the time-scale for complete desiccation of an asteroid. I will also share my experience with code distribution using GitHub and Zenodo.
Greenland meltwater storage in firn limited by near-surface ice formation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Machguth, Horst; Macferrin, Mike; van As, Dirk; Box, Jason E.; Charalampidis, Charalampos; Colgan, William; Fausto, Robert S.; Meijer, Harro A. J.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.
2016-04-01
Approximately half of Greenland’s current annual mass loss is attributed to runoff from surface melt. At higher elevations, however, melt does not necessarily equal runoff, because meltwater can refreeze in the porous near-surface snow and firn. Two recent studies suggest that all or most of Greenland’s firn pore space is available for meltwater storage, making the firn an important buffer against contribution to sea level rise for decades to come. Here, we employ in situ observations and historical legacy data to demonstrate that surface runoff begins to dominate over meltwater storage well before firn pore space has been completely filled. Our observations frame the recent exceptional melt summers in 2010 and 2012 (refs ,), revealing significant changes in firn structure at different elevations caused by successive intensive melt events. In the upper regions (more than ~1,900 m above sea level), firn has undergone substantial densification, while at lower elevations, where melt is most abundant, porous firn has lost most of its capability to retain meltwater. Here, the formation of near-surface ice layers renders deep pore space difficult to access, forcing meltwater to enter an efficient surface discharge system and intensifying ice sheet mass loss earlier than previously suggested.
Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Luo, Hao; Castelao, Renato M.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Tedesco, Marco; Bracco, Annalisa; Yager, Patricia L.; Mote, Thomas L.
2016-01-01
The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, J.; Medley, B.; Neumann, T.; Smith, B. E.; Luthcke, S. B.; Zwally, H. J.
2016-12-01
Surface mass balance (SMB) data are essential in the derivation of ice sheet mass balance. This is because ice sheet mass change consists of short-term and long-term variations. The short-term variations are directly given by the SMB data. For altimetry based ice sheet mass balance studies, these short-term mass changes are converted to firn thickness changes by using a firn densification-elevation model, and then the variations are subtracted from the altimetry measurements to give the long-term ice thickness changes that are associated with the density of ice. So far various SMB data sets such as ERA-Interim, RACMO and MERRA are available and some have been widely used in large number of ice sheet mass balance studies. However theses data sets exhibit the clear discrepancies in both random and systematic manner. In this study, we use our time dependent firn densification- elevation model, driven by the SMB data from MERRA-2, RACMO2.3 and ERA-Int for the period of 1982-2015 and the temperature variations from AVHRR for the same period to examine the corresponding firn thickness variations and the impacts to the mass changes over the Greenland ice sheet. The model was initialized with the1980's climate. Our results show that the relative smaller (centimeter level) differences in the firn thickness driven by the different data set occur at the early stage (1980's) of the model run. As the time progressing, the discrepancies between the SMB data sets accumulate, and the corresponding firn thickness differences quickly become larger with the value > 2m at the end of the period. Although the overall rates for the whole period driven by each of the three data sets are small ranging -0.2 - 0.2 cm a-1 (-3.0-2.7 Gt a-1), the decadal rates can vary greatly with magnitude > 3 cm a-1 and the impact to the Greenland mass change exceeds 30 Gt a-1.
A multi-decadal remote sensing study on glacial change in the North Patagonia Ice Field Chile
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tetteh, Lucy Korlekwor
Glaciers in the North Patagonian Ice Fields are temperate glaciers and can be studied to understand the dynamics of climate change. However, the ice field has been neglected in mass balance studies. In this study, multi decadal study of glacial mass balance, glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion in the North Patagonia were studied. Landsat (TM, ETM+ and 8) and ASTER images were used. San Quintin glacier experienced the highest retreat. Demarcation of glacier lakes boundaries indicated an increase in glacial lake area an addition of 4 new glacial lakes. Nef glacier recorded the highest mass gain of 9.91 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a.-1 and HPN-4 glacier recorded the highest mass loss of -8.9 plus or minus 1.96 m.w.e.a. -1. However, there is a high uncertainty in the elevation values in the DEM due to the rugged nature of the terrain and presence of the heavy snow cover.
Organic components in hair-ice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hofmann, Diana; Steffen, Bernhard; Disko, Ulrich; Wagner, Gerhard; Mätzler, Christian
2013-04-01
Hair-ice is a rather unknown phenomenon. In contrast to generally known frost needles, originating from atmospheric water and expanding e.g. from plant surfaces in all directions, hair ice grows from the basis of wet, rotten hardwood. The hair-like, flexible, linear structures may reach up to 10 cm in length without any ramifications. Hair-ice appears to be related to the biological activity of a fungus mycelium within the wood. Hair-ice can attract winter-active Collemboles (snow flea, Isotoma nivalis). At the onset of hair-ice melt a very thin fibre becomes apparent, which carries brownish pearl-like water drops. Therefore, it is supposed that organic substances are inherent, which could possibly act as freezing catalyst as well as recrystallization inhibitor. The aim of this work was the chemical characterization of organic substances contained in hair-ice. First analyses of melted hair-ice show a total organic carbon (TOC) value of 235 mg/l in contrast to 11 mg/l total nitrogen. Most of inherent nitrogen (70 %) exists thereby as ammonium. Screened by different (mass spectrometric) methods, no evidence could be found for the initially expected organic substances like proteins, lipids, small volatile substances or carboxylic acids. By coupling of Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography with a triple quadrupol mass spectrometer (UPLC-MS) a non-resolved chromatogram from a melted hair-ice sample was received. Averaged spectra from different regions are similar among themselves with a broad peak spreading over the mass range 100-650 Da with favored intense, odd-numbered peaks. Such spectra are similar to dissolved organic matter (DOM), known e.g. from terrestrial and marine waters, soil extracts or aerosols. In the next step, samples were desalted and concentrated by solid phase extraction (SPE) and subsequently analyzed by flow injection analysis (FIA) in a Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometer (FTICR-MS), equipped with an ESI source and a 7 T
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valle, G.; Dell'Omodarme, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Degl'Innocenti, S.
2018-01-01
Aims: We aim to perform a theoretical evaluation of the impact of the mass loss indetermination on asteroseismic grid based estimates of masses, radii, and ages of stars in the red giant branch (RGB) phase. Methods: We adopted the SCEPtER pipeline on a grid spanning the mass range [0.8; 1.8] M⊙. As observational constraints, we adopted the star effective temperatures, the metallicity [Fe/H], the average large frequency spacing Δν, and the frequency of maximum oscillation power νmax. The mass loss was modelled following a Reimers parametrization with the two different efficiencies η = 0.4 and η = 0.8. Results: In the RGB phase, the average random relative error (owing only to observational uncertainty) on mass and age estimates is about 8% and 30% respectively. The bias in mass and age estimates caused by the adoption of a wrong mass loss parameter in the recovery is minor for the vast majority of the RGB evolution. The biases get larger only after the RGB bump. In the last 2.5% of the RGB lifetime the error on the mass determination reaches 6.5% becoming larger than the random error component in this evolutionary phase. The error on the age estimate amounts to 9%, that is, equal to the random error uncertainty. These results are independent of the stellar metallicity [Fe/H] in the explored range. Conclusions: Asteroseismic-based estimates of stellar mass, radius, and age in the RGB phase can be considered mass loss independent within the range (η ∈ [0.0,0.8]) as long as the target is in an evolutionary phase preceding the RGB bump.
Equatorial ground ice on Mars: Steady-state stability
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Postawko, Susan E.
1993-01-01
Current Martian equatorial surface temperatures are too warm for water ice to exist at the surface for any appreciable length of time before subliming into the atmosphere. Subsurface temperatures are generally warmer still and, despite the presence of a diffusive barrier of porous regolith material, it has been shown by Smoluchowski, Clifford and Hillel, and Fanale et al. that buried ground ice will also sublime and be lost to the atmosphere in a relatively short time. We investigate the behavior of this subliming subsurface ice and show that it is possible for ice to maintain at a steady-state depth, where sublimation and diffusive loss to the atmosphere is balanced by resupply from beneath by diffusion and recondensation of either a deeper buried ice deposits or ground water. We examine the behavior of equatorial ground ice with a numercial time-marching molecular diffusion model. In our model we allow for diffusion of water vapor through a porous regolith, variations in diffusivity and porosity with ice content, and recondensation of sublimed water vapor. A regolith containing considerable amounts of ice can still be very porous, allowing water vapor to diffuse up from deeper within the ice layer where temperatures are warmer due to the geothermal gradient. This vapor can then recondense nearer to the surface where ice had previously sublimed and been lost to the atmosphere. As a result we find that ice deposits migrate to find a steady-state depth, which represents a balance between diffusive loss to the atmosphere through the overlying porous regolith and diffusive resupply through a porous icy regolith below. This depth depends primarily on the long-term mean surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, and is independent of the ice-free porosity and the regolith diffusivity. Only the rate of loss of ground ice depends on diffusive properties.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Riebel, D.; Meixner, M.; Srinivasan, S.
We present results from the first application of the Grid of Red Supergiant and Asymptotic Giant Branch ModelS (GRAMS) model grid to the entire evolved stellar population of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). GRAMS is a pre-computed grid of 80,843 radiative transfer models of evolved stars and circumstellar dust shells composed of either silicate or carbonaceous dust. We fit GRAMS models to {approx}30,000 asymptotic giant branch (AGB) and red supergiant (RSG) stars in the LMC, using 12 bands of photometry from the optical to the mid-infrared. Our published data set consists of thousands of evolved stars with individually determined evolutionarymore » parameters such as luminosity and mass-loss rate. The GRAMS grid has a greater than 80% accuracy rate discriminating between oxygen- and carbon-rich chemistry. The global dust injection rate to the interstellar medium (ISM) of the LMC from RSGs and AGB stars is on the order of 2.1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5} M{sub Sun} yr{sup -1}, equivalent to a total mass injection rate (including the gas) into the ISM of {approx}6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -3} M{sub Sun} yr{sup -1}. Carbon stars inject two and a half times as much dust into the ISM as do O-rich AGB stars, but the same amount of mass. We determine a bolometric correction factor for C-rich AGB stars in the K{sub s} band as a function of J - K{sub s} color, BC{sub K{sub s}}= -0.40(J-K{sub s}){sup 2} + 1.83(J-K{sub s}) + 1.29. We determine several IR color proxies for the dust mass-loss rate (M-dot{sub d}) from C-rich AGB stars, such as log M-dot{sub d} = (-18.90/((K{sub s}-[8.0])+3.37) - 5.93. We find that a larger fraction of AGB stars exhibiting the 'long-secondary period' phenomenon are more O-rich than stars dominated by radial pulsations, and AGB stars without detectable mass loss do not appear on either the first-overtone or fundamental-mode pulsation sequences.« less
Development of a Full Ice-cream Cone Model for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Y.-J.; Lee, Harim
2017-04-01
It is essential to determine three-dimensional parameters (e.g., radial speed, angular width, and source location) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) for the space weather forecast. In this study, we investigate which cone type represents a halo CME morphology using 29 CMEs (12 Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) halo CMEs and 17 Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)/Sun-Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation COR2 halo CMEs) from 2010 December to 2011 June. These CMEs are identified as halo CMEs by one spacecraft (SOHO or one of STEREO A and B) and limb ones by the other spacecraft (One of STEREO A and B or SOHO). From cone shape parameters of these CMEs, such as their front curvature, we find that the CME observational structures are much closer to a full ice-cream cone type than a shallow ice-cream cone type. Thus, we develop a full ice-cream cone model based on a new methodology that the full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths to estimate the three-dimensional parameters of the halo CMEs. This model is constructed by carrying out the following steps: (1) construct a cone for a given height and angular width, (2) project the cone onto the sky plane, (3) select points comprising the outer boundary, and (4) minimize the difference between the estimated projection speeds with the observed ones. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that 3D parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods (I.e., a triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wearing, M.; Kingslake, J.
2017-12-01
It is generally assumed that since the Last Glacial Maximum the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has experienced monotonic retreat of the grounding line (GL). However, recent studies have cast doubt on this assumption, suggesting that the retreat of the WAIS grounding line may have been followed by a significant advance during the Holocene in the Weddell and Ross Sea sectors. Constraining this evolution is important as reconstructions of past ice-sheet extent are used to spin-up predictive ice-sheet models and correct mass-balance observations for glacial isostatic adjustment. Here we examine in detail the formation of the Henry Ice Rise (HIR), which ice-sheet model simulations suggest played a key role in Holocene ice-mass changes in the Weddell Sea sector. Observations from a high-resolution ground-based, ice-penetrating radar survey are best explained if the ice rise formed when the Ronne Ice Shelf grounded on a submarine high, underwent a period of ice-rumple flow, before the GL migrated outwards to form the present-day ice rise. We constrain the relative chronology of this evolution by comparing the alignment and intersection of isochronal internal layers, relic crevasses, surface features and investigating the dynamic processes leading to their complex structure. We also draw analogies between HIR and the neighbouring Doake Ice Rumples. The date of formation is estimated using vertical velocities derived with a phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (pRES). Ice-sheet models suggest that the formation of the HIR and other ice rises may have halted and reversed large-scale GL retreat. Hence the small-scale dynamics of these crucial regions could have wide-reaching consequences for future ice-sheet mass changes and constraining their formation and evolution further would be beneficial. One stringent test of our geophysics-based conclusions would be to drill to the bed of HIR to sample the ice for isotopic analysis and the bed for radiocarbon analysis.
Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian
2017-11-01
There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ION COMPOSITION ELUCIDATION (ICE)
Ion Composition Elucidation (ICE) utilizes selected ion recording with a double focusing mass spectrometer to simultaneously determine exact masses and relative isotopic abundances from mass peak profiles. These can be determined more accurately and at higher sensitivity ...
A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition
Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein
2012-01-01
One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.
A survey of mass-loss effects in early-type stars
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Snow, T. P., Jr.
1976-01-01
Intermediate-resolution data obtained with the Copernicus satellite are surveyed in order to define the region in the H-R diagram where mass loss occurs. The survey includes 40 stars, providing good coverage of supergiants from O4 to A2 and main-sequence stars from O4 to B7 as well as spotty coverage of late O giants and intermediate to late B stars. The spectral transitions examined are primarily resonance lines of ions of abundant elements plus some lines arising from excited states (e.g., C III at 1175.7 A and Si IV at 1122.5 A). Observed P Cygni profiles are discussed along with interesting features of some individual profiles. The data are shown to indicate that mass-loss effects occur over a wide portion of the H-R diagram, that mass ejection generally occurs when the holometric magnitude is greater than -6.0, and that the mass-ejection rate is usually high enough to produce P Cygni profile whenever the N V feature at 1240 A is present in a spectrum.
Submesoscale sea ice-ocean interactions in marginal ice zones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thompson, A. F.; Manucharyan, G.
2017-12-01
Signatures of ocean eddies, fronts and filaments are commonly observed within the marginal ice zones (MIZ) from satellite images of sea ice concentration, in situ observations via ice-tethered profilers or under-ice gliders. Localized and intermittent sea ice heating and advection by ocean eddies are currently not accounted for in climate models and may contribute to their biases and errors in sea ice forecasts. Here, we explore mechanical sea ice interactions with underlying submesoscale ocean turbulence via a suite of numerical simulations. We demonstrate that the release of potential energy stored in meltwater fronts can lead to energetic submesoscale motions along MIZs with sizes O(10 km) and Rossby numbers O(1). In low-wind conditions, cyclonic eddies and filaments efficiently trap the sea ice and advect it over warmer surface ocean waters where it can effectively melt. The horizontal eddy diffusivity of sea ice mass and heat across the MIZ can reach O(200 m2 s-1). Submesoscale ocean variability also induces large vertical velocities (order of 10 m day-1) that can bring relatively warm subsurface waters into the mixed layer. The ocean-sea ice heat fluxes are localized over cyclonic eddies and filaments reaching about 100 W m-2. We speculate that these submesoscale-driven intermittent fluxes of heat and sea ice can potentially contribute to the seasonal evolution of MIZs. With continuing global warming and sea ice thickness reduction in the Arctic Ocean, as well as the large expanse of thin sea ice in the Southern Ocean, submesoscale sea ice-ocean processes are expected to play a significant role in the climate system.
Comparison of Asymmetric and Ice-cream Cone Models for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Na, H.; Moon, Y.
2011-12-01
Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are major cause of the geomagnetic storms. To minimize the projection effect by coronagraph observation, several cone models have been suggested: an ice-cream cone model, an asymmetric cone model etc. These models allow us to determine the three dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle between sky plane and central axis of the cone. In this study, we compare these parameters obtained from different models using 48 well-observed HCMEs from 2001 to 2002. And we obtain the root mean square error (RMS error) between measured projection speeds and calculated projection speeds for both cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with each other (R = 0.86), and the correlation coefficient of angular width is 0.6. The correlation coefficient of the angle between sky plane and central axis of the cone is 0.31, which is much smaller than expected. The reason may be due to the fact that the source locations of the asymmetric cone model are distributed near the center, while those of the ice-cream cone model are located in a wide range. The average RMS error of the asymmetric cone model (85.6km/s) is slightly smaller than that of the ice-cream cone model (87.8km/s).
Boland, Michelle; Miele, Emily M; Delude, Katie
2017-10-07
The purpose was to identify off-ice testing variables that correlate to skating and game performance in Division I collegiate women ice hockey players. Twenty female, forward and defensive players (19.95 ± 1.35 yr) were assessed for weight, height, percent fat mass (%FAT), bone mineral density, predicted one repetition maximum (RM) absolute and relative (REL%) bench press (BP) and hex bar deadlift (HDL), lower body explosive power, anaerobic power, countermovement vertical jump (CMJ), maximum inspiratory pressure (MIP), and on-ice repeated skate sprint (RSS) performance. The on-ice RSS test included 6 timed 85.6 m sprints with participants wearing full hockey equipment; fastest time (FT), average time (AT) and fatigue index (FI) for the first length skate (FLS; 10 m) and total length skate (TLS; 85.6 m) were used for analysis. Game performance was evaluated with game statistics: goals, assists, points, plus-minus, and shots on goal (SOG). Correlation coefficients were used to determine relationships. Percent fat mass was positively correlated (p < 0.05) with FLS-FI and TLS-AT; TLS-FT was negatively correlated with REL%HDL; BP-RM was negatively correlated with FLS-FT and FLS-AT; MIP positively correlated with assists, points, and SOG; FLS-AT negatively correlated with assists. Game performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by greater MIP, repeat acceleration ability, and mode-specific training. Faster skating times were associated with lower %FAT. Skating performance in women ice hockey players may be enhanced by improving body composition, anaerobic power, and both lower and upper body strength in off-ice training.
The Impact of Progenitor Mass Loss on the Dynamical and Spectral Evolution of Supernova Remnants
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Patnaude, Daniel J.; Lee, Shiu-Hang; Slane, Patrick O.; Badenes, Carles; Nagataki, Shigehiro; Ellison, Donald C.; Milisavljevic, Dan
2017-11-01
There is now substantial evidence that the progenitors of some core-collapse supernovae undergo enhanced or extreme mass loss prior to explosion. The imprint of this mass loss is observed in the spectra and dynamics of the expanding blast wave on timescales of days to years after core collapse, and the effects on the spectral and dynamical evolution may linger long after the supernova has evolved into the remnant stage. In this paper, we present, for the first time, largely self-consistent end-to-end simulations for the evolution of a massive star from the pre-main sequence, up to and through core collapse, and into the remnant phase. We present three models and compare and contrast how the progenitor mass-loss history impacts the dynamics and spectral evolution of the supernovae and supernova remnants. We study a model that only includes steady mass loss, a model with enhanced mass loss over a period of ˜5000 yr prior to core collapse, and a model with extreme mass loss over a period of ˜500 yr prior to core collapse. The models are not meant to address any particular supernova or supernova remnant, but rather to highlight the important role that the progenitor evolution plays in the observable qualities of supernovae and supernova remnants. Through comparisons of these three different progenitor evolution scenarios, we find that the mass loss in late stages (during and after core carbon burning) can have a profound impact on the dynamics and spectral evolution of the supernova remnant centuries after core collapse.
The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik
2017-04-01
The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.
GIA Modeling with 3D Rheology and Recent Ice Thickness Changes in Polar Regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Der Wal, W.; Wu, P. P.
2012-12-01
Models for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) mainly focus on the response of the solid Earth to ice thickness changes on the scale of thousands of years. However, some of the fastest vertical movement in former glaciated regions is due to changes in ice thickness that occurred within the last 1,000 years. Similar studies for the polar regions are limited, possibly due to a lack of knowledge on past ice sheet thicknesses there. Still, predictions of uplift rate and mass change due to recent ice thickness changes need to improve in order to provide accurate estimates of current mass loss. In order to obtain a measurable response to variations in ice thickness in the last 1,000 years, viscosity in the lithosphere or top of the upper mantle needs to be lower than the mantle viscosity values in conventional GIA models. In the absence of reliable models for recent ice thickness changes we aim to bracket the predicted uplift rates and gravity rates for such changes by assuming simplified past ice growth and melt patterns. Instead of adding a low-viscous layer in the mantle a priori, creep parameters are based on information from experimental constraints, seismology and heatflow measurements. Thus the model includes viscosity varying in space and time. The simulations are performed on a finite element model of a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible Earth using the commercial software Abaqus. 3D composite rheology is implemented based on temperature fields from heatflow measurements or seismic velocity anomalies. The lithospheric thickness does not need to be specified as the effective elastic thickness is determined by the local effective viscosity. ICE-5G is used as ice loading history while ice changes during and around the Little Ice Age in Greenland are assumed to take place near the coast. A 3D composite rheology has been shown to match historic sea levels well, but uplift rates are somewhat underestimated. With the GIA models that best match uplift rates in
Ice nucleation of natural desert dust including organics sourced from nine deserts worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boose, Yvonne; Welti, André; Atkinson, James; Danielczok, Anja; Bingemer, Heinz; Plötze, Michael; Lohmann, Ulrike; Kanji, Zamin A.
2017-04-01
evaporating organic material. Interestingly, the sample with the highest mass loss shows an increase in IN ability at subsaturated conditions, while one sample completely loses its ice nucleation ability after heating but only loses 2 % of its mass at T ≤ 573 K. The most IN active samples, all surface-collected, show no significant mass loss, i.e. a low organic content is expected, and also no change in ice nucleation activity after heating. The results suggest that airborne desert dust can contain a significant amount of organic material which is released during heating to 573 K. This organic material, however, seems to be diverse in nature and in the sign of its effects on the ice nucleation ability: in one case it seems to have inhibited the ice nucleation ability of the dust while in another it substantially improved it.
Effects of Ice Formations on Airplane Performance in Level Cruising Flight
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Preston, G. Merritt; Blackman, Calvin C.
1948-01-01
A flight investigation in natural icing conditions was conducted by the NACA to determine the effect of ice accretion on airplane performance. The maximum loss in propeller efficiency encountered due to ice formation on the propeller blades was 19 percent. During 87 percent of the propeller icing encounters, losses of 10 percent or less were observed. Ice formations on all of the components of the airplane except the propellers during one icing encounter resulted in an increase in parasite drag of the airplane of 81 percent. The control response of the airplane in this condition was marginal.
The global signature of post-1900 land ice wastage on vertical land motion
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas; King, Matt; Marzeion, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel
2017-04-01
The amount of ice stored on land has strongly declined during the 20th century, and melt rates showed a significant acceleration over the last two decades. Land ice wastage is well known to be one of the main drivers of global mean sea-level rise, as widely discussed in the literature and reflected in the last assessment report of the IPCC. A less obvious effect of melting land ice is the response of the solid earth to mass redistribution on its surface, which, in the first approximation, results in land uplift where the load reduces (e.g., close to the meltwater sources) and land subsidence where the load increases (e.g., under the rising oceans). This effect is nowadays well known within the cryospheric and sea level communities. However, what is often not realized is that the solid earth response is a truly global effect: a localized mass change does cause a large deformation signal in its proximity, but also causes a change of the position of every other point on the Earth's surface. The theory of the Earth's elastic response to changing surface loads forms the basis of the 'sea-level equation', which allows sea-level fingerprints of continental mass change to be computed. In this paper, we provide the first dedicated analysis of global vertical land motion driven by land ice wastage. By means of established techniques to compute the solid earth elastic response to surface load changes and the most recent datasets of glacier and ice sheet mass change, we show that land ice loss currently leads to vertical deformation rates of several tenths of mm per year at mid-latitudes, especially over the Northern Hemisphere where most sources are located. In combination with the improved accuracy of space geodetic techniques (e.g., Global Navigation Satellite Systems), this means that the effect of ice melt is non-negligible over a large part of the continents. In particular, we show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.
Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P
2006-07-15
Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.
The impact of short-term heat storage on the ice-albedo feedback loop
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polashenski, C.; Wright, N.; Perovich, D. K.; Song, A.; Deeb, E. J.
2016-12-01
The partitioning of solar energy in the ice-ocean-atmosphere environment is a powerful control over Arctic sea ice mass balance. Ongoing transitions of the sea ice toward a younger, thinner state are enhancing absorption of solar energy and contributing to further declines in sea ice in a classic ice-albedo feedback. Here we investigate the solar energy balance over shorter timescales. In particular, we are concerned with short term delays in the transfer of absorbed solar energy to the ice caused by heat storage in the upper ocean. By delaying the realization of ice melt, and hence albedo decline, heat storage processes effectively retard the intra-season ice-albedo feedback. We seek to quantify the impact and variability of such intra-season storage delays on full season energy absorption. We use in-situ data collected from Arctic Observing Network (AON) sea ice sites, synthesized with the results of imagery processed from high resolution optical satellites, and basin-scale remote sensing products to approach the topic. AON buoys are used to monitor the storage and flux of heat, while satellite imagery allows us to quantify the evolution of surrounding ice conditions and predict the aggregate scale solar absorption. We use several test sites as illustrative cases and demonstrate that temporary heat storage can have substantial impacts on seasonal energy absorption and ice loss. A companion to this work is presented by N. Wright at this meeting.
Cold basal conditions during surges control flow of fringing Arctic ice caps in Greenland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, Samuel; Christoffersen, Poul; Todd, Joe; Palmer, Steven
2017-04-01
Fringing ice caps separated from larger ice sheets are rarely studied, yet they are an important part of earth's cryosphere, which has become the largest source of global sea-level rise. Understanding marginal ice caps is crucial for being able to predict sea-level change as they are responsible for up to 20% of Greenland's mass loss for 2003-2008. Studies of fringing ice caps can furthermore provide useful insights into processes operating on glaciers that surge. Surging has been the focus of much recent glaciological work, especially with reference to thermal evolution of polythermal glaciers in High Mountain Asia and the High Arctic. This has shown that the classic divide between hydrologically-controlled surges ('hard-bed') in Alaska and thermally-regulated ('soft-bed') surges elsewhere is less stark than previously assumed. Studying marginal ice caps can therefore be valuable in several ways. The largest fringing ice cap in Greenland is Flade Isblink. Previous work has established that this ice cap is showing a range of dynamic behaviour, including subglacial lake drainage and varied patterns of mass-balance change. In particular, a substantial surge, assumed to be caused by a version of the thermally-regulated mechanism, occurred between 1996 and 2000, making the ice cap a useful case study for investigating this process. Here we investigate the surge on Flade Isblink using the open-source, Full-Stokes model Elmer/Ice to invert for basal conditions and englacial temperatures using the adjoint method. We specifically study steady-state conditions representative of the active surge phase in 2000, and the subsequent quiescent phase, using patterns of surface velocity observed in 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2015. Under constant geometry, temperature and geothermal heat, it is shown that surging increases basal freezing rates by over 60% across an area that is twice as large as the area over which the bed freezes in the quiescent phase. The process responsible for this
Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.
2016-12-01
The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment