Sample records for ice model version

  1. SmaggIce 2D Version 1.8: Software Toolkit Developed for Aerodynamic Simulation Over Iced Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choo, Yung K.; Vickerman, Mary B.

    2005-01-01

    SmaggIce 2D version 1.8 is a software toolkit developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center that consists of tools for modeling the geometry of and generating the grids for clean and iced airfoils. Plans call for the completed SmaggIce 2D version 2.0 to streamline the entire aerodynamic simulation process--the characterization and modeling of ice shapes, grid generation, and flow simulation--and to be closely coupled with the public-domain application flow solver, WIND. Grid generated using version 1.8, however, can be used by other flow solvers. SmaggIce 2D will help researchers and engineers study the effects of ice accretion on airfoil performance, which is difficult to do with existing software tools because of complex ice shapes. Using SmaggIce 2D, when fully developed, to simulate flow over an iced airfoil will help to reduce the cost of performing flight and wind-tunnel tests for certifying aircraft in natural and simulated icing conditions.

  2. Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

    2018-05-01

    A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

  3. Modeling and Grid Generation of Iced Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vickerman, Mary B.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Hackenberg, Anthony W.; Pennline, James A.; Schilling, Herbert W.

    2007-01-01

    SmaggIce Version 2.0 is a software toolkit for geometric modeling and grid generation for two-dimensional, singleand multi-element, clean and iced airfoils. A previous version of SmaggIce was described in Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 8 (August 2004), page 32. To recapitulate: Ice shapes make it difficult to generate quality grids around airfoils, yet these grids are essential for predicting ice-induced complex flow. This software efficiently creates high-quality structured grids with tools that are uniquely tailored for various ice shapes. SmaggIce Version 2.0 significantly enhances the previous version primarily by adding the capability to generate grids for multi-element airfoils. This version of the software is an important step in streamlining the aeronautical analysis of ice airfoils using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The user may prepare the ice shape, define the flow domain, decompose it into blocks, generate grids, modify/divide/merge blocks, and control grid density and smoothness. All these steps may be performed efficiently even for the difficult glaze and rime ice shapes. Providing the means to generate highly controlled grids near rough ice, the software includes the creation of a wrap-around block (called the "viscous sublayer block"), which is a thin, C-type block around the wake line and iced airfoil. For multi-element airfoils, the software makes use of grids that wrap around and fill in the areas between the viscous sub-layer blocks for all elements that make up the airfoil. A scripting feature records the history of interactive steps, which can be edited and replayed later to produce other grids. Using this version of SmaggIce, ice shape handling and grid generation can become a practical engineering process, rather than a laborious research effort.

  4. Direct comparisons of ice cloud macro- and microphysical properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with HIPPO aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Diao, Minghui; Zhang, Kai; Gettelman, Andrew; Lu, Zheng; Penner, Joyce E.; Lin, Zhaohui

    2017-04-01

    In this study we evaluate cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) using in situ measurements from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaign for the period of 2009 to 2011. The modeled wind and temperature are nudged towards reanalysis. Model results collocated with HIPPO flight tracks are directly compared with the observations, and model sensitivities to the representations of ice nucleation and growth are also examined. Generally, CAM5 is able to capture specific cloud systems in terms of vertical configuration and horizontal extension. In total, the model reproduces 79.8 % of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes and even higher (94.3 %) for ice clouds (T ≤ -40 °C). The missing cloud occurrences in the model are primarily ascribed to the fact that the model cannot account for the high spatial variability of observed relative humidity (RH). Furthermore, model RH biases are mostly attributed to the discrepancies in water vapor, rather than temperature. At the micro-scale of ice clouds, the model captures the observed increase of ice crystal mean sizes with temperature, albeit with smaller sizes than the observations. The model underestimates the observed ice number concentration (Ni) and ice water content (IWC) for ice crystals larger than 75 µm in diameter. Modeled IWC and Ni are more sensitive to the threshold diameter for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs), while simulated ice crystal mean size is more sensitive to ice nucleation parameterizations than to Dcs. Our results highlight the need for further improvements to the sub-grid RH variability and ice nucleation and growth in the model.

  5. User Manual for the NASA Glenn Ice Accretion Code LEWICE. Version 2.2.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    2002-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 2.2.2 of this code, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from release 2.0 due to the addition of advanced thermal analysis capabilities for de-icing and anti-icing applications using electrothermal heaters or bleed air applications. An extensive effort was also undertaken to compare the results against the database of electrothermal results which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) as was performed for the validation effort for version 2.0. This report will primarily describe the features of the software related to the use of the program. Appendix A of this report has been included to list some of the inner workings of the software or the physical models used. This information is also available in the form of several unpublished documents internal to NASA. This report is intended as a replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this code.

  6. Wave-induced stress and breaking of sea ice in a coupled hydrodynamic discrete-element wave-ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, Agnieszka

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a coupled sea ice-wave model is developed and used to analyze wave-induced stress and breaking in sea ice for a range of wave and ice conditions. The sea ice module is a discrete-element bonded-particle model, in which ice is represented as cuboid grains floating on the water surface that can be connected to their neighbors by elastic joints. The joints may break if instantaneous stresses acting on them exceed their strength. The wave module is based on an open-source version of the Non-Hydrostatic WAVE model (NHWAVE). The two modules are coupled with proper boundary conditions for pressure and velocity, exchanged at every wave model time step. In the present version, the model operates in two dimensions (one vertical and one horizontal) and is suitable for simulating compact ice in which heave and pitch motion dominates over surge. In a series of simulations with varying sea ice properties and incoming wavelength it is shown that wave-induced stress reaches maximum values at a certain distance from the ice edge. The value of maximum stress depends on both ice properties and characteristics of incoming waves, but, crucially for ice breaking, the location at which the maximum occurs does not change with the incoming wavelength. Consequently, both regular and random (Jonswap spectrum) waves break the ice into floes with almost identical sizes. The width of the zone of broken ice depends on ice strength and wave attenuation rates in the ice.

  7. Testing ice microphysics parameterizations in the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model Version 3 using Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment data

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Weiguo; Liu, Xiaohong; Xie, Shaocheng; ...

    2009-07-23

    Here, cloud properties have been simulated with a new double-moment microphysics scheme under the framework of the single-column version of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3). For comparison, the same simulation was made with the standard single-moment microphysics scheme of CAM3. Results from both simulations compared favorably with observations during the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program in terms of the temporal variation and vertical distribution of cloud fraction and cloud condensate. Major differences between the two simulations are in the magnitude and distribution of ice water content within themore » mixed-phase cloud during the monsoon period, though the total frozen water (snow plus ice) contents are similar. The ice mass content in the mixed-phase cloud from the new scheme is larger than that from the standard scheme, and ice water content extends 2 km further downward, which is in better agreement with observations. The dependence of the frozen water mass fraction on temperature from the new scheme is also in better agreement with available observations. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the simulation with the new scheme is, in general, larger than that with the standard scheme, while the surface downward longwave radiation is similar. Sensitivity tests suggest that different treatments of the ice crystal effective radius contribute significantly to the difference in the calculations of TOA OLR, in addition to cloud water path. Numerical experiments show that cloud properties in the new scheme can respond reasonably to changes in the concentration of aerosols and emphasize the importance of correctly simulating aerosol effects in climate models for aerosol-cloud interactions. Further evaluation, especially for ice cloud properties based on in-situ data, is needed.« less

  8. The Operation IceBridge Sea Ice Freeboard, Snow Septh and Thickness Product: An In-Depth Look at Past, Current and Future Versions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbeck, J.; Kurtz, N. T.; Studinger, M.; Onana, V.; Yi, D.

    2015-12-01

    The NASA Operation IceBridge Project Science Office has recently released an updated version of the sea ice freeboard, snow depth and thickness product (IDCSI4). This product is generated through the combination of multiple IceBridge instrument data, primarily the ATM laser altimeter, DMS georeferenced imagery and the CReSIS snow radar, and is available on a campaign-specific basis as all upstream data sets become available. Version 1 data (IDCSI2) was the initial data production; we have subsequently received community feedback that has now been incorporated, allowing us to provide an improved data product. All data now available to the public at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) have been homogeneously reprocessed using the new IDCSI4 algorithm. This algorithm contains significant upgrades that improve the quality and consistency of the dataset, including updated atmospheric and oceanic tidal models and replacement of the geoid with a more representative mean sea surface height product. Known errors with the IDCSI2 algorithm, identified by the Project Science Office as well as feedback from the scientific community, have been incorporated into the new algorithm as well. We will describe in detail the various steps of the IDCSI4 algorithm, show the improvements made over the IDCSI2 dataset and their beneficial impact and discuss future upgrades planned for the next version.

  9. User Manual for the NASA Glenn Ice Accretion Code LEWICE: Version 2.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    1999-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 2.0 of this code, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from previous releases due to its robustness and its ability to reproduce results accurately for different spacing and time step criteria across computing platform. It also differs in the extensive effort undertaken to compare the results against the database of ice shapes which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) 1. This report will only describe the features of the code related to the use of the program. The report will not describe the inner working of the code or the physical models used. This information is available in the form of several unpublished documents which will be collectively referred to as a Programmers Manual for LEWICE 2 in this report. These reports are intended as an update/replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this code.

  10. Icing Analysis of a Swept NACA 0012 Wing Using LEWICE3D Version 3.48

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin S.

    2014-01-01

    Icing calculations were performed for a NACA 0012 swept wing tip using LEWICE3D Version 3.48 coupled with the ANSYS CFX flow solver. The calculated ice shapes were compared to experimental data generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The IRT tests were designed to test the performance of the LEWICE3D ice void density model which was developed to improve the prediction of swept wing ice shapes. Icing tests were performed for a range of temperatures at two different droplet inertia parameters and two different sweep angles. The predicted mass agreed well with the experiment with an average difference of 12%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model under-predicted void density by an average of 30% for the large inertia parameter cases and by 63% for the small inertia parameter cases. This under-prediction in void density resulted in an over-prediction of ice area by an average of 115%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model produced a larger average area difference with experiment than the standard LEWICE density model, which doesn't account for the voids in the swept wing ice shape, (115% and 75% respectively) but it produced ice shapes which were deemed more appropriate because they were conservative (larger than experiment). Major contributors to the overly conservative ice shape predictions were deficiencies in the leading edge heat transfer and the sensitivity of the void ice density model to the particle inertia parameter. The scallop features present on the ice shapes were thought to generate interstitial flow and horse shoe vortices which enhance the leading edge heat transfer. A set of changes to improve the leading edge heat transfer and the void density model were tested. The changes improved the ice shape predictions considerably. More work needs to be done to evaluate the performance of these modifications for a wider range of geometries and icing conditions.

  11. Icing Analysis of a Swept NACA 0012 Wing Using LEWICE3D Version 3.48

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin S.

    2014-01-01

    Icing calculations were performed for a NACA 0012 swept wing tip using LEWICE3D Version 3.48 coupled with the ANSYS CFX flow solver. The calculated ice shapes were compared to experimental data generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The IRT tests were designed to test the performance of the LEWICE3D ice void density model which was developed to improve the prediction of swept wing ice shapes. Icing tests were performed for a range of temperatures at two different droplet inertia parameters and two different sweep angles. The predicted mass agreed well with the experiment with an average difference of 12%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model under-predicted void density by an average of 30% for the large inertia parameter cases and by 63% for the small inertia parameter cases. This under-prediction in void density resulted in an over-prediction of ice area by an average of 115%. The LEWICE3D ice void density model produced a larger average area difference with experiment than the standard LEWICE density model, which doesn't account for the voids in the swept wing ice shape, (115% and 75% respectively) but it produced ice shapes which were deemed more appropriate because they were conservative (larger than experiment). Major contributors to the overly conservative ice shape predictions were deficiencies in the leading edge heat transfer and the sensitivity of the void ice density model to the particle inertia parameter. The scallop features present on the ice shapes were thought to generate interstitial flow and horse shoe vortices which enhance the leading edge heat transfer. A set of changes to improve the leading edge heat transfer and the void density model were tested. The changes improved the ice shape predictions considerably. More work needs to be done to evaluate the performance of these modifications for a wider range of geometries and icing conditions

  12. Global Simulations of Ice nucleation and Ice Supersaturation with an Improved Cloud Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gettelman, A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.

    2010-09-28

    A process-based treatment of ice supersaturation and ice-nucleation is implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The new scheme is designed to allow (1) supersaturation with respect to ice, (2) ice nucleation by aerosol particles and (3) ice cloud cover consistent with ice microphysics. The scheme is implemented with a 4-class 2 moment microphysics code and is used to evaluate ice cloud nucleation mechanisms and supersaturation in CAM. The new model is able to reproduce field observations of ice mass and mixed phase cloud occurrence better than previous versions of the model. Simulations indicatemore » heterogeneous freezing and contact nucleation on dust are both potentially important over remote areas of the Arctic. Cloud forcing and hence climate is sensitive to different formulations of the ice microphysics. Arctic radiative fluxes are sensitive to the parameterization of ice clouds. These results indicate that ice clouds are potentially an important part of understanding cloud forcing and potential cloud feedbacks, particularly in the Arctic.« less

  13. A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

    2017-04-01

    The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

  14. Simulating hydrodynamics and ice cover in Lake Erie using an unstructured grid model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisaki-Manome, A.; Wang, J.

    2016-02-01

    An unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) is applied to Lake Erie to simulate seasonal ice cover. The model is coupled with an unstructured-grid, finite-volume version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (UG-CICE). We replaced the original 2-time-step Euler forward scheme in time integration by the central difference (i.e., leapfrog) scheme to assure a neutrally inertial stability. The modified version of FVCOM coupled with the ice model is applied to the shallow freshwater lake in this study using unstructured grids to represent the complicated coastline in the Laurentian Great Lakes and refining the spatial resolution locally. We conducted multi-year simulations in Lake Erie from 2002 to 2013. The results were compared with the observed ice extent, water surface temperature, ice thickness, currents, and water temperature profiles. Seasonal and interannual variation of ice extent and water temperature was captured reasonably, while the modeled thermocline was somewhat diffusive. The modeled ice thickness tends to be systematically thinner than the observed values. The modeled lake currents compared well with measurements obtained from an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler located in the deep part of the lake, whereas the simulated currents deviated from measurements near the surface, possibly due to the model's inability to reproduce the sharp thermocline during the summer and the lack of detailed representation of offshore wind fields in the interpolated meteorological forcing.

  15. Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model DESIgn, version 1.3a - model description and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents theoretical foundations, numerical implementation and examples of application of the two-dimensional Discrete-Element bonded-particle Sea Ice model - DESIgn. In the model, sea ice is represented as an assemblage of objects of two types: disk-shaped "grains" and semi-elastic bonds connecting them. Grains move on the sea surface under the influence of forces from the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as interactions with surrounding grains through direct contact (Hertzian contact mechanics) and/or through bonds. The model has an experimental option of taking into account quasi-three-dimensional effects related to the space- and time-varying curvature of the sea surface, thus enabling simulation of ice breaking due to stresses resulting from bending moments associated with surface waves. Examples of the model's application to simple sea ice deformation and breaking problems are presented, with an analysis of the influence of the basic model parameters ("microscopic" properties of grains and bonds) on the large-scale response of the modeled material. The model is written as a toolbox suitable for usage with the open-source numerical library LIGGGHTS. The code, together with full technical documentation and example input files, is freely available with this paper and on the Internet.

  16. High-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean modeling using the POPSICLES model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, E. G.; Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    It is expected that a primary driver of future change of the Antarctic ice sheet will be changes in submarine melting driven by incursions of warm ocean water into sub-ice shelf cavities. Correctly modeling this response on a continental scale will require high-resolution modeling of the coupled ice-ocean system. We describe the computational and modeling challenges in our simulations of the full Southern Ocean coupled to a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet model at unprecedented spatial resolutions (0.1 degree for the ocean model and adaptive mesh refinement down to 500m in the ice sheet model). The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), with the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012) using a synchronous offline-coupling scheme. Part of the PISCEES SciDAC project and built on the Chombo framework, BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). For the POPSICLES Antarctic-Southern Ocean simulations, ice sheet and ocean models communicate at one-month coupling intervals.

  17. How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collow, Thomas W.; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun; Zhang, Jinlun

    2017-09-01

    The capability of a numerical model to simulate the statistical characteristics of the summer sea ice date of retreat (DOR) and the winter date of advance (DOA) is investigated using sea ice concentration output from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model (CFSv2). Two model configurations are tested, the operational setting (CFSv2CFSR) which uses initial data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and a modified version (CFSv2PIOMp) which ingests sea ice thickness initialization data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) and includes physics modifications for a more realistic representation of heat fluxes at the sea ice top and bottom. First, a method to define DOR and DOA is presented. Then, DOR and DOA are determined from the model simulations and observational sea ice concentration from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Means, trends, and detrended standard deviations of DOR and DOA are compared, along with DOR/DOA rates in the Arctic Ocean. It is found that the statistics are generally similar between the model and observations, although some regional biases exist. In addition, regions of new ice retreat in recent years are represented well in CFSv2PIOMp over the Arctic Ocean, in terms of both spatial extent and timing. Overall, CFSv2PIOMp shows a reduction in error throughout the Arctic. Based on results, it is concluded that the model produces a reasonable representation of the climatology and variability statistics of DOR and DOA in most regions. This assessment serves as a prerequisite for future predictability experiments.

  18. Ice-Accretion Test Results for Three Large-Scale Swept-Wing Models in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy P.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Lee, Sam; Malone, Adam M.; Paul, Benard P., Jr.; Woodard, Brian S.

    2016-01-01

    Icing simulation tools and computational fluid dynamics codes are reaching levels of maturity such that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing conditions with increasingly less reliance on natural-icing flight testing and icing-wind-tunnel testing. Sufficient high-quality data to evaluate the performance of these tools is not currently available. The objective of this work was to generate a database of ice-accretion geometry that can be used for development and validation of icing simulation tools as well as for aerodynamic testing. Three large-scale swept wing models were built and tested at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The models represented the Inboard (20% semispan), Midspan (64% semispan) and Outboard stations (83% semispan) of a wing based upon a 65% scale version of the Common Research Model (CRM). The IRT models utilized a hybrid design that maintained the full-scale leading-edge geometry with a truncated afterbody and flap. The models were instrumented with surface pressure taps in order to acquire sufficient aerodynamic data to verify the hybrid model design capability to simulate the full-scale wing section. A series of ice-accretion tests were conducted over a range of total temperatures from -23.8 deg C to -1.4 deg C with all other conditions held constant. The results showed the changing ice-accretion morphology from rime ice at the colder temperatures to highly 3-D scallop ice in the range of -11.2 deg C to -6.3 deg C. Warmer temperatures generated highly 3-D ice accretion with glaze ice characteristics. The results indicated that the general scallop ice morphology was similar for all three models. Icing results were documented for limited parametric variations in angle of attack, drop size and cloud liquid-water content (LWC). The effect of velocity on ice accretion was documented for the Midspan and Outboard models for a limited number of test cases. The data suggest that

  19. Ice-Accretion Test Results for Three Large-Scale Swept-Wing Models in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy P.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Lee, Sam; Malone, Adam M.; Paul, Bernard P., Jr.; Woodard, Brian S.

    2016-01-01

    Icing simulation tools and computational fluid dynamics codes are reaching levels of maturity such that they are being proposed by manufacturers for use in certification of aircraft for flight in icing conditions with increasingly less reliance on natural-icing flight testing and icing-wind-tunnel testing. Sufficient high-quality data to evaluate the performance of these tools is not currently available. The objective of this work was to generate a database of ice-accretion geometry that can be used for development and validation of icing simulation tools as well as for aerodynamic testing. Three large-scale swept wing models were built and tested at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT). The models represented the Inboard (20 percent semispan), Midspan (64 percent semispan) and Outboard stations (83 percent semispan) of a wing based upon a 65 percent scale version of the Common Research Model (CRM). The IRT models utilized a hybrid design that maintained the full-scale leading-edge geometry with a truncated afterbody and flap. The models were instrumented with surface pressure taps in order to acquire sufficient aerodynamic data to verify the hybrid model design capability to simulate the full-scale wing section. A series of ice-accretion tests were conducted over a range of total temperatures from -23.8 to -1.4 C with all other conditions held constant. The results showed the changing ice-accretion morphology from rime ice at the colder temperatures to highly 3-D scallop ice in the range of -11.2 to -6.3 C. Warmer temperatures generated highly 3-D ice accretion with glaze ice characteristics. The results indicated that the general scallop ice morphology was similar for all three models. Icing results were documented for limited parametric variations in angle of attack, drop size and cloud liquid-water content (LWC). The effect of velocity on ice accretion was documented for the Midspan and Outboard models for a limited number of test cases. The data suggest

  20. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2018-03-01

    We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

  1. Aerosol specification in single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5

    DOE PAGES

    Lebassi-Habtezion, B.; Caldwell, P. M.

    2015-03-27

    Single-column model (SCM) capability is an important tool for general circulation model development. In this study, the SCM mode of version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is shown to handle aerosol initialization and advection improperly, resulting in aerosol, cloud-droplet, and ice crystal concentrations which are typically much lower than observed or simulated by CAM5 in global mode. This deficiency has a major impact on stratiform cloud simulations but has little impact on convective case studies because aerosol is currently not used by CAM5 convective schemes and convective cases are typically longer in duration (so initialization is less important).more » By imposing fixed aerosol or cloud-droplet and crystal number concentrations, the aerosol issues described above can be avoided. Sensitivity studies using these idealizations suggest that the Meyers et al. (1992) ice nucleation scheme prevents mixed-phase cloud from existing by producing too many ice crystals. Microphysics is shown to strongly deplete cloud water in stratiform cases, indicating problems with sequential splitting in CAM5 and the need for careful interpretation of output from sequentially split climate models. Droplet concentration in the general circulation model (GCM) version of CAM5 is also shown to be far too low (~ 25 cm −3) at the southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site.« less

  2. Simulations of Antarctic ice shelves and the Southern Ocean in the POP2x ocean model coupled with the BISICLES ice-sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Martin, Daniel; Price, Stephen; Maltrud, Mathew

    2014-05-01

    We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and ice-sheet evolution models. This presentation focuses on the ocean model, POP2x, which is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). A companion presentation, 'Fully resolved whole-continent Antarctica simulations using the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model coupled with the POP2x Ocean Model', concentrates more on the ice-sheet model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), which includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (Southern Ocean) simulations using POP2x at 0.1 degree resolution with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to

  3. IceChrono1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrenin, F.; Bazin, L.; Capron, E.; Landais, A.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.

    2015-05-01

    Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores and the estimation of the age-scale uncertainty are essential to interpret the climate and environmental records that they contain. It is, however, a complex problem which involves different methods. Here, we present IceChrono1, a new probabilistic model integrating various sources of chronological information to produce a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. IceChrono1 is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the lock-in depth (LID) of air bubbles and the thinning function. The chronological information integrated into the model are models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice- and air-dated horizons, ice and air depth intervals with known durations, depth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air) and finally air and ice stratigraphic links in between ice cores. The optimization is formulated as a least squares problem, implying that all densities of probabilities are assumed to be Gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono follows an approach similar to that of the Datice model which was recently used to produce the AICC2012 (Antarctic ice core chronology) for four Antarctic ice cores and one Greenland ice core. IceChrono1 provides improvements and simplifications with respect to Datice from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. The capabilities of IceChrono1 are demonstrated on a case study similar to the AICC2012 dating experiment. We find results similar to those of Datice, within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono1 and Datice codes. We also test new functionalities with respect to the original version of Datice

  4. IceChrono1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrenin, Frédéric; Bazin, Lucie; Capron, Emilie; Landais, Amaëlle; Lemieux-Dudon, Bénédicte; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2016-04-01

    Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores and the estimation of the age scale uncertainty are essential to interpret the climate and environmental records that they contain. It is however a complex problem which involves different methods. Here, we present IceChrono1, a new probabilistic model integrating various sources of chronological information to produce a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. IceChrono1 is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the Lock-In Depth (LID) of air bubbles and the thinning function. The chronological information integrated into the model are: models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice and air dated horizons, ice and air depth intervals with known durations, Δdepth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air) and finally air and ice stratigraphic links in between ice cores. The optimization is formulated as a least squares problem, implying that all densities of probabilities are assumed to be Gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono follows an approach similar to that of the Datice model which was recently used to produce the AICC2012 chronology for 4 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core. IceChrono1 provides improvements and simplifications with respect to Datice from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. The capabilities of IceChrono is demonstrated on a case study similar to the AICC2012 dating experiment. We find results similar to those of Datice, within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono and Datice codes. We also test new functionalities with respect to the original version of Datice: observations as ice intervals

  5. Sensitivity Analysis of a Lagrangian Sea Ice Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rabatel, Matthias; Rampal, Pierre; Bertino, Laurent; Carrassi, Alberto; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

    2017-04-01

    Large changes in the Arctic sea ice have been observed in the last decades in terms of the ice thickness, extension and drift. Understanding the mechanisms behind these changes is of paramount importance to enhance our modeling and forecasting capabilities. For 40 years, models have been developed to describe the non-linear dynamical response of the sea ice to a number of external and internal factors. Nevertheless, there still exists large deviations between predictions and observations. There are related to incorrect descriptions of the sea ice response and/or to the uncertainties about the different sources of information: parameters, initial and boundary conditions and external forcing. Data assimilation (DA) methods are used to combine observations with models, and there is nowadays an increasing interest of DA for sea-ice models and observations. We consider here the state-of-the art sea-ice model, neXtSIM te{Rampal2016a}, which is based on a time-varying Lagrangian mesh and makes use of the Elasto-Brittle rheology. Our ultimate goal is designing appropriate DA scheme for such a modelling facility. This contribution reports about the first milestone along this line: a sensitivity analysis in order to quantify forecast error to guide model development and to set basis for further Lagrangian DA methods. Specific features of the sea-ice dynamics in relation to the wind are thus analysed. Virtual buoys are deployed across the Arctic domain and their trajectories of motion are analysed. The simulated trajectories are also compared to real buoys trajectories observed. The model response is also compared with that one from a model version not including internal forcing to highlight the role of the rheology. Conclusions and perspectives for the general DA implementation are also discussed. \\bibitem{Rampal2016a} P. Rampal, S. Bouillon, E. Ólason, and M. Morlighem. ne{X}t{SIM}: a new {L}agrangian sea ice model. The Cryosphere, 10 (3): 1055-1073, 2016.

  6. Constraining the parameters of the EAP sea ice rheology from satellite observations and discrete element model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsamados, Michel; Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Muir, Alan; Baker, Steven

    2016-04-01

    The new elastic-plastic anisotropic (EAP) rheology that explicitly accounts for the sub-continuum anisotropy of the sea ice cover has been implemented into the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The EAP rheology is widely used in the climate modeling scientific community (i.e. CPOM stand alone, RASM high resolution regional ice-ocean model, MetOffice fully coupled model). Early results from sensitivity studies (Tsamados et al, 2013) have shown the potential for an improved representation of the observed main sea ice characteristics with a substantial change of the spatial distribution of ice thickness and ice drift relative to model runs with the reference visco-plastic (VP) rheology. The model contains one new prognostic variable, the local structure tensor, which quantifies the degree of anisotropy of the sea ice, and two parameters that set the time scale of the evolution of this tensor. Observations from high resolution satellite SAR imagery as well as numerical simulation results from a discrete element model (DEM, see Wilchinsky, 2010) have shown that these individual floes can organize under external wind and thermal forcing to form an emergent isotropic sea ice state (via thermodynamic healing, thermal cracking) or an anisotropic sea ice state (via Coulombic failure lines due to shear rupture). In this work we use for the first time in the context of sea ice research a mathematical metric, the Tensorial Minkowski functionals (Schroeder-Turk, 2010), to measure quantitatively the degree of anisotropy and alignment of the sea ice at different scales. We apply the methodology on the GlobICE Envisat satellite deformation product (www.globice.info), on a prototype modified version of GlobICE applied on Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery and on the DEM ice floe aggregates. By comparing these independent measurements of the sea ice anisotropy as well as its temporal evolution against the EAP model we are able to constrain the

  7. Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    We present the response of the continental Antarctic ice sheet to sub-shelf-melt forcing derived from POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1 degree (~5 km) ocean resolution and ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m using adaptive mesh refinement. A comparison of fully-coupled and comparable standalone ice-sheet model results demonstrates the importance of two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the ocean. The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). A companion presentation, "Present-day circum-Antarctic simulations using the POPSICLES coupled land ice-ocean model" in session C027 describes the ocean-model perspective of this work, while we focus on the response of the ice sheet and on details of the model. The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated ice velocity field about 1 month into a 20-year coupled Antarctic run. Groundling lines are shown in green.

  8. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    DOE PAGES

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

  9. A theory-based parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation and implications for the simulation of ice processes in atmospheric models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savre, J.; Ekman, A. M. L.

    2015-05-01

    A new parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation constrained by laboratory data and based on classical nucleation theory is introduced. Key features of the parameterization include the following: a consistent and modular modeling framework for treating condensation/immersion and deposition freezing, the possibility to consider various potential ice nucleating particle types (e.g., dust, black carbon, and bacteria), and the possibility to account for an aerosol size distribution. The ice nucleating ability of each aerosol type is described using a contact angle (θ) probability density function (PDF). A new modeling strategy is described to allow the θ PDF to evolve in time so that the most efficient ice nuclei (associated with the lowest θ values) are progressively removed as they nucleate ice. A computationally efficient quasi Monte Carlo method is used to integrate the computed ice nucleation rates over both size and contact angle distributions. The parameterization is employed in a parcel model, forced by an ensemble of Lagrangian trajectories extracted from a three-dimensional simulation of a springtime low-level Arctic mixed-phase cloud, in order to evaluate the accuracy and convergence of the method using different settings. The same model setup is then employed to examine the importance of various parameters for the simulated ice production. Modeling the time evolution of the θ PDF is found to be particularly crucial; assuming a time-independent θ PDF significantly overestimates the ice nucleation rates. It is stressed that the capacity of black carbon (BC) to form ice in the condensation/immersion freezing mode is highly uncertain, in particular at temperatures warmer than -20°C. In its current version, the parameterization most likely overestimates ice initiation by BC.

  10. An improved ice cloud formation parameterization in the EMAC model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacer, Sara; Pozzer, Andrea; Karydis, Vlassis; Tsimpidi, Alexandra; Tost, Holger; Sullivan, Sylvia; Nenes, Athanasios; Barahona, Donifan; Lelieveld, Jos

    2017-04-01

    Cirrus clouds cover about 30% of the Earth's surface and are an important modulator of the radiative energy budget of the atmosphere. Despite their importance in the global climate system, there are still large uncertainties in understanding the microphysical properties and interactions with aerosols. Ice crystal formation is quite complex and a variety of mechanisms exists for ice nucleation, depending on aerosol characteristics and environmental conditions. Ice crystals can be formed via homogeneous nucleation or heterogeneous nucleation of ice-nucleating particles in different ways (contact, immersion, condensation, deposition). We have implemented the computationally efficient cirrus cloud formation parameterization by Barahona and Nenes (2009) into the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model in order to improve the representation of ice clouds and aerosol-cloud interactions. The parameterization computes the ice crystal number concentration from precursor aerosols and ice-nucleating particles accounting for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and among different freezing modes. Our work shows the differences and the improvements obtained after the implementation with respect to the previous version of EMAC.

  11. Combined ice core and climate-model evidence for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

    2015-04-01

    It has been speculated that collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains the very high eustatic sea level rise during the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, but the evidence remains equivocal. Changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would have significant regional impacts that should be detectable in ice core records. We conducted simulations using general circulation models (GCMs) at varying levels of complexity: a gray-radiation aquaplanet moist GCM (GRaM), the slab ocean version of GFDL-AM2 (also as an aquaplanet), and the fully-coupled version of NCAR's CESM with realistic topography. In all the experiments, decreased elevation from the removal of the WAIS leads to greater cyclonic circulation over the West Antarctic region. This creates increased advection of relatively warm marine air from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas towards the South Pole, and increased cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau towards the Ross Sea and coastal Marie Byrd Land. The result is anomalous warming in some areas of the East Antarctic interior, and significant cooling in Marie Byrd Land. Comparison of ice core records shows good agreement with the model predictions. In particular, isotope-paleotemperature records from ice cores in East Antarctica warmed more between the previous glacial period (MIS 6) and MIS 5e than coastal Marie Byrd Land. These results add substantial support to other evidence for WAIS collapse during the last interglacial period.

  12. Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

    2017-11-01

    Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

  13. Mixed Phase Modeling in GlennICE with Application to Engine Icing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

    2011-01-01

    A capability for modeling ice crystals and mixed phase icing has been added to GlennICE. Modifications have been made to the particle trajectory algorithm and energy balance to model this behavior. This capability has been added as part of a larger effort to model ice crystal ingestion in aircraft engines. Comparisons have been made to four mixed phase ice accretions performed in the Cox icing tunnel in order to calibrate an ice erosion model. A sample ice ingestion case was performed using the Energy Efficient Engine (E3) model in order to illustrate current capabilities. Engine performance characteristics were supplied using the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) model for this test case.

  14. A computationally efficient description of heterogeneous freezing: A simplified version of the Soccer ball model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niedermeier, Dennis; Ervens, Barbara; Clauss, Tina; Voigtländer, Jens; Wex, Heike; Hartmann, Susan; Stratmann, Frank

    2014-01-01

    In a recent study, the Soccer ball model (SBM) was introduced for modeling and/or parameterizing heterogeneous ice nucleation processes. The model applies classical nucleation theory. It allows for a consistent description of both apparently singular and stochastic ice nucleation behavior, by distributing contact angles over the nucleation sites of a particle population assuming a Gaussian probability density function. The original SBM utilizes the Monte Carlo technique, which hampers its usage in atmospheric models, as fairly time-consuming calculations must be performed to obtain statistically significant results. Thus, we have developed a simplified and computationally more efficient version of the SBM. We successfully used the new SBM to parameterize experimental nucleation data of, e.g., bacterial ice nucleation. Both SBMs give identical results; however, the new model is computationally less expensive as confirmed by cloud parcel simulations. Therefore, it is a suitable tool for describing heterogeneous ice nucleation processes in atmospheric models.

  15. Field-calibrated model of melt, refreezing, and runoff for polar ice caps: Application to Devon Ice Cap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morris, Richard M.; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Bell, Christina; Burgess, David O.; Wright, Andrew P.

    2014-09-01

    Understanding the controls on the amount of surface meltwater that refreezes, rather than becoming runoff, over polar ice masses is necessary for modeling their surface mass balance and ultimately for predicting their future contributions to global sea level change. We present a modified version of a physically based model that includes an energy balance routine and explicit calculation of near-surface meltwater refreezing capacity, to simulate the evolution of near-surface density and temperature profiles across Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada. Uniquely, our model is initiated and calibrated using high spatial resolution measurements of snow and firn densities across almost the entire elevation range of the ice cap for the summer of 2004 and subsequently validated with the same type of measurements obtained during the very different meteorological conditions of summer 2006. The model captures the spatial variability across the transect in bulk snowpack properties although it slightly underestimates the flow of meltwater into the firn of previous years. The percentage of meltwater that becomes runoff is similar in both years; however, the spatial pattern of this melt-runoff relationship is different in the 2 years. The model is found to be insensitive to variation in the depth of impermeable layers within the firn but is very sensitive to variation in air temperature, since the refreezing capacity of firn decreases with increasing temperature. We highlight that the sensitivity of the ice cap's surface mass balance to air temperature is itself dependent on air temperature.

  16. Decadal-Scale Response of the Antarctic Ice sheet to a Warming Ocean using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Cornford, S. L.; Price, S. F.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

    2015-12-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period from 1990 to 2010. We use the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data to force the ocean model. Simulations are performed at 0.1o(~5 km) ocean resolution with adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m to adequately resolve the grounding line dynamics. We discuss the effect of improved ocean mixing and subshelf bathymetry (vs. the standard Bedmap2 bathymetry) on the behavior of the coupled system, comparing time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported in the literature. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and the consequent dynamic response of the grounded ice sheet.POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program, and the BISICLES ice-sheet model. POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells and the commonly used three-equation boundary layer physics. Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations. BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d) and realistic configurations.The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated grounded ice velocity field 5 years into a 20-year coupled full-continent Antarctic-Southern-Ocean simulation. Submarine melt rates are painted onto the surface of the floating ice shelves. Grounding lines are shown in green.

  17. A coupled ice-ocean model of upwelling in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roed, L. P.; Obrien, J. J.

    1983-01-01

    A dynamical coupled ice-ocean numerical model for the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is suggested and used to study upwelling dynamics in the MIZ. The nonlinear sea ice model has a variable ice concentration and includes internal ice stress. The model is forced by stresses on the air/ocean and air/ice surfaces. The main coupling between the ice and the ocean is in the form of an interfacial stress on the ice/ocean interface. The ocean model is a linear reduced gravity model. The wind stress exerted by the atmosphere on the ocean is proportional to the fraction of open water, while the interfacial stress ice/ocean is proportional to the concentration of ice. A new mechanism for ice edge upwelling is suggested based on a geostrophic equilibrium solution for the sea ice medium. The upwelling reported in previous models invoking a stationary ice cover is shown to be replaced by a weak downwelling due to the ice motion. Most of the upwelling dynamics can be understood by analysis of the divergence of the across ice edge upper ocean transport. On the basis of numerical model, an analytical model is suggested that reproduces most of the upwelling dynamics of the more complex numerical model.

  18. A coupled ice-ocean model of ice breakup and banding in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smedstad, O. M.; Roed, L. P.

    1985-01-01

    A coupled ice-ocean numerical model for the marginal ice zone is considered. The model consists of a nonlinear sea ice model and a two-layer (reduced gravity) ocean model. The dependence of the upwelling response on wind stress direction is discussed. The results confirm earlier analytical work. It is shown that there exist directions for which there is no upwelling, while other directions give maximum upwelling in terms of the volume of uplifted water. The ice and ocean is coupled directly through the stress at the ice-ocean interface. An interesting consequence of the coupling is found in cases when the ice edge is almost stationary. In these cases the ice tends to break up a few tenths of kilometers inside of the ice edge.

  19. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melchior van Wessem, Jan; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van Meijgaard, Erik; Amory, Charles; Birnbaum, Gerit; Jakobs, Constantijn L.; Krüger, Konstantin; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Medley, Brooke; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van Tricht, Kristof; Trusel, Luke D.; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; Wouters, Bert; Wuite, Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2018-04-01

    We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ˜ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

  20. SmaggIce 2.0: Additional Capabilities for Interactive Grid Generation of Iced Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreeger, Richard E.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Schilling, Herbert W.; Vickerman, Mary B.

    2008-01-01

    The Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils (SmaggIce) software toolkit has been extended to allow interactive grid generation for multi-element iced airfoils. The essential phases of an icing effects study include geometry preparation, block creation and grid generation. SmaggIce Version 2.0 now includes these main capabilities for both single and multi-element airfoils, plus an improved flow solver interface and a variety of additional tools to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of icing effects studies. An overview of these features is given, especially the new multi-element blocking strategy using the multiple wakes method. Examples are given which illustrate the capabilities of SmaggIce for conducting an icing effects study for both single and multi-element airfoils.

  1. Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-05

    Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-5004 NRL/MR/7320--08-9150 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Software ...collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services , Directorate for...THIS PAGE 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Software Design Description for the Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS) Version 3.0 Pamela G

  2. Explicit prediction of ice clouds in general circulation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, Martin

    1999-11-01

    Although clouds play extremely important roles in the radiation budget and hydrological cycle of the Earth, there are large quantitative uncertainties in our understanding of their generation, maintenance and decay mechanisms, representing major obstacles in the development of reliable prognostic cloud water schemes for General Circulation Models (GCMs). Recognizing their relative neglect in the past, both observationally and theoretically, this work places special focus on ice clouds. A recent version of the UCLA - University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) that includes interactive radiation is used to perform idealized experiments to study ice cloud maintenance and decay mechanisms under various conditions in term of: (1) background static stability, (2) background relative humidity, (3) rate of cloud ice addition over a fixed initial time-period and (4) radiation: daytime, nighttime and no-radiation. Radiation is found to have major effects on the life-time of layer-clouds. Optically thick ice clouds decay significantly slower than expected from pure microphysical crystal fall-out (taucld = 0.9--1.4 h as opposed to no-motion taumicro = 0.5--0.7 h). This is explained by the upward turbulent fluxes of water induced by IR destabilization, which partially balance the downward transport of water by snowfall. Solar radiation further slows the ice-water decay by destruction of the inversion above cloud-top and the resulting upward transport of water. Optically thin ice clouds, on the other hand, may exhibit even longer life-times (>1 day) in the presence of radiational cooling. The resulting saturation mixing ratio reduction provides for a constant cloud ice source. These CRM results are used to develop a prognostic cloud water scheme for the UCLA-GCM. The framework is based on the bulk water phase model of Ose (1993). The model predicts cloud liquid water and cloud ice separately, and which is extended to split the ice phase into suspended cloud ice (predicted

  3. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

    2013-03-01

    The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

  4. Modelling sea ice dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murawski, Jens; Kleine, Eckhard

    2017-04-01

    Sea ice remains one of the frontiers of ocean modelling and is of vital importance for the correct forecasts of the northern oceans. At large scale, it is commonly considered a continuous medium whose dynamics is modelled in terms of continuum mechanics. Its specifics are a matter of constitutive behaviour which may be characterised as rigid-plastic. The new developed sea ice dynamic module bases on general principles and follows a systematic approach to the problem. Both drift field and stress field are modelled by a variational property. Rigidity is treated by Lagrangian relaxation. Thus one is led to a sensible numerical method. Modelling fast ice remains to be a challenge. It is understood that ridging and the formation of grounded ice keels plays a role in the process. The ice dynamic model includes a parameterisation of the stress associated with grounded ice keels. Shear against the grounded bottom contact might lead to plastic deformation and the loss of integrity. The numerical scheme involves a potentially large system of linear equations which is solved by pre-conditioned iteration. The entire algorithm consists of several components which result from decomposing the problem. The algorithm has been implemented and tested in practice.

  5. The Cryosphere Model Comparison Tool (CmCt): Ice Sheet Model Validation and Comparison Tool for Greenland and Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simon, E.; Nowicki, S.; Neumann, T.; Tyahla, L.; Saba, J. L.; Guerber, J. R.; Bonin, J. A.; DiMarzio, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    The Cryosphere model Comparison tool (CmCt) is a web based ice sheet model validation tool that is being developed by NASA to facilitate direct comparison between observational data and various ice sheet models. The CmCt allows the user to take advantage of several decades worth of observations from Greenland and Antarctica. Currently, the CmCt can be used to compare ice sheet models provided by the user with remotely sensed satellite data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, and radar altimetry (ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat). One or more models can be uploaded through the CmCt website and compared with observational data, or compared to each other or other models. The CmCt calculates statistics on the differences between the model and observations, and other quantitative and qualitative metrics, which can be used to evaluate the different model simulations against the observations. The qualitative metrics consist of a range of visual outputs and the quantitative metrics consist of several whole-ice-sheet scalar values that can be used to assign an overall score to a particular simulation. The comparison results from CmCt are useful in quantifying improvements within a specific model (or within a class of models) as a result of differences in model dynamics (e.g., shallow vs. higher-order dynamics approximations), model physics (e.g., representations of ice sheet rheological or basal processes), or model resolution (mesh resolution and/or changes in the spatial resolution of input datasets). The framework and metrics could also be used for use as a model-to-model intercomparison tool, simply by swapping outputs from another model as the observational datasets. Future versions of the tool will include comparisons with other datasets that are of interest to the modeling community, such as ice velocity, ice thickness, and surface mass balance.

  6. Immersion freezing by natural dust based on a soccer ball model with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5: climate effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong

    2014-12-01

    We introduce a simplified version of the soccer ball model (SBM) developed by Niedermeier et al (2014 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 736-741) into the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). It is the first time that SBM is used in an atmospheric model to parameterize the heterogeneous ice nucleation. The SBM, which was simplified for its suitable application in atmospheric models, uses the classical nucleation theory to describe the immersion/condensation freezing by dust in the mixed-phase cloud regime. Uncertain parameters (mean contact angle, standard deviation of contact angle probability distribution, and number of surface sites) in the SBM are constrained by fitting them to recent natural dust (Saharan dust) datasets. With the SBM in CAM5, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled cloud properties to the SBM parameters, and find significant seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity among the three SBM parameters. Changes of mean contact angle and the number of surface sites lead to changes of cloud properties in Arctic in spring, which could be attributed to the transport of dust ice nuclei to this region. In winter, significant changes of cloud properties induced by these two parameters mainly occur in northern hemispheric mid-latitudes (e.g., East Asia). In comparison, no obvious changes of cloud properties caused by changes of standard deviation can be found in all the seasons. These results are valuable for understanding the heterogeneous ice nucleation behavior, and useful for guiding the future model developments.

  7. Capabilities and performance of the new generation ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Mallinen, M.; Martin, C.; Raback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Schäfer, M.; Thies, J.

    2012-12-01

    Since the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, and its conclusion about the inability of ice-sheet flow models to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and associated contribution to sea-level rise, a huge development effort has been undertaken by the glaciological community. All around the world, models have been improved and, interestingly, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them, the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice (based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer) was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections of the future of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve dedicated local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. In this presentation, we summarise the almost 10 years of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planed for the future.

  8. SPH non-Newtonian Model for Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Dynamics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.; Pan, Wenxiao; Monaghan, Joseph J.

    2012-07-07

    We propose a new three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) non-Newtonian model to study coupled ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics. Most existing ice sheet numerical models use a grid-based Eulerian approach, and are usually restricted to shallow ice sheet and ice shelf approximations of the momentum conservation equation. SPH, a fully Lagrangian particle method, solves the full momentum conservation equation. SPH method also allows modeling of free-surface flows, large material deformation, and material fragmentation without employing complex front-tracking schemes, and does not require re-meshing. As a result, SPH codes are highly scalable. Numerical accuracy of the proposed SPH model ismore » first verified by simulating a plane shear flow with a free surface and the propagation of a blob of ice along a horizontal surface. Next, the SPH model is used to investigate the grounding line dynamics of ice sheet/shelf. The steady position of the grounding line, obtained from our SPH simulations, is in good agreement with laboratory observations for a wide range of bedrock slopes, ice-to-fluid density ratios, and flux. We examine the effect of non-Newtonian behavior of ice on the grounding line dynamics. The non-Newtonian constitutive model is based on Glen's law for a creeping flow of a polycrystalline ice. Finally, we investigate the effect of a bedrock geometry on a steady-state position of the grounding line.« less

  9. Effects of Model Resolution and Ocean Mixing on Forced Ice-Ocean Physical and Biogeochemical Simulations Using Global and Regional System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Meibing; Deal, Clara; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Matrai, Patricia; Roberts, Andrew; Osinski, Robert; Lee, Younjoo J.; Frants, Marina; Elliott, Scott; Jeffery, Nicole; Hunke, Elizabeth; Wang, Shanlin

    2018-01-01

    The current coarse-resolution global Community Earth System Model (CESM) can reproduce major and large-scale patterns but is still missing some key biogeochemical features in the Arctic Ocean, e.g., low surface nutrients in the Canada Basin. We incorporated the CESM Version 1 ocean biogeochemical code into the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) and coupled it with a sea-ice algal module to investigate model limitations. Four ice-ocean hindcast cases are compared with various observations: two in a global 1° (40˜60 km in the Arctic) grid: G1deg and G1deg-OLD with/without new sea-ice processes incorporated; two on RASM's 1/12° (˜9 km) grid R9km and R9km-NB with/without a subgrid scale brine rejection parameterization which improves ocean vertical mixing under sea ice. Higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice extent, ice thickness, and ice algae. In the Bering Sea shelf, only higher resolution contributed to lower model errors in salinity, nitrate (NO3), and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). In the Arctic Basin, model errors in mixed layer depth (MLD) were reduced 36% by brine rejection parameterization, 20% by new sea-ice processes, and 6% by higher resolution. The NO3 concentration biases were caused by both MLD bias and coarse resolution, because of excessive horizontal mixing of high NO3 from the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin in coarse resolution models. R9km showed improvements over G1deg on NO3, but not on Chl-a, likely due to light limitation under snow and ice cover in the Arctic Basin.

  10. Ocean-Forced Ice-Shelf Thinning in a Synchronously Coupled Ice-Ocean Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, James R.; Holland, Paul R.; Goldberg, Dan; Snow, Kate; Arthern, Robert; Campin, Jean-Michel; Heimbach, Patrick; Jenkins, Adrian

    2018-02-01

    The first fully synchronous, coupled ice shelf-ocean model with a fixed grounding line and imposed upstream ice velocity has been developed using the MITgcm (Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model). Unlike previous, asynchronous, approaches to coupled modeling our approach is fully conservative of heat, salt, and mass. Synchronous coupling is achieved by continuously updating the ice-shelf thickness on the ocean time step. By simulating an idealized, warm-water ice shelf we show how raising the pycnocline leads to a reduction in both ice-shelf mass and back stress, and hence buttressing. Coupled runs show the formation of a western boundary channel in the ice-shelf base due to increased melting on the western boundary due to Coriolis enhanced flow. Eastern boundary ice thickening is also observed. This is not the case when using a simple depth-dependent parameterized melt, as the ice shelf has relatively thinner sides and a thicker central "bulge" for a given ice-shelf mass. Ice-shelf geometry arising from the parameterized melt rate tends to underestimate backstress (and therefore buttressing) for a given ice-shelf mass due to a thinner ice shelf at the boundaries when compared to coupled model simulations.

  11. Modeling the effect of snow and ice on the global environmental fate and long-range transport potential of semivolatile organic compounds.

    PubMed

    Stocker, Judith; Scheringer, Martin; Wegmann, Fabio; Hungerbuhler, Konrad

    2007-09-01

    Snow and ice have been implemented in a global multimedia box model to investigate the influence of these media on the environmental fate and long-range transport (LRT) of semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs). Investigated compounds include HCB, PCB28, PCB180, PBDE47, PBDE209, alpha-HCH, and dacthal. In low latitudes, snow acts as a transfer medium taking up chemicals from air and releasing them to water or soil during snowmelt. In high latitudes, snow and ice shield water, soil, and vegetation from chemical deposition. In the model version including snow and ice (scenario 2), the mass of chemicals in soil in high latitudes is between 27% (HCB) and 97% (alpha-HCH) of the mass calculated with the model version without snow and ice (scenario 1). Amounts in Arctic seawater in scenario 2 are 8% (alpha-HCH) to 21% (dacthal) of the amounts obtained in scenario 1. For all investigated chemicals except alpha-HCH, presence of snow and ice in the model increases the concentration in air by a factor of 2 (HCB)to 10 (PBDE209). Because of reduced net deposition to snow-covered surfaces in high latitudes, LRT to the Arctic is reduced for most chemicals whereas transport to the south is more pronounced than in scenario 1 ("southward shift"). The presence of snow and ice thus considerably changes the environmental fate of SOCs.

  12. Modeling Wave-Ice Interactions in the Marginal Ice Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orzech, Mark; Shi, Fengyan; Bateman, Sam; Veeramony, Jay; Calantoni, Joe

    2015-04-01

    The small-scale (O(m)) interactions between waves and ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) are investigated with a coupled model system. Waves are simulated with the non-hydrostatic finite-volume model NHWAVE (Ma et al., 2012) and ice floes are represented as bonded collections of smaller particles with the discrete element system LIGGGHTS (Kloss et al., 2012). The physics of fluid and ice are recreated as authentically as possible, to allow the coupled system to supplement and/or substitute for more costly and demanding field experiments. The presentation will first describe the development and validation of the coupled system, then discuss the results of a series of virtual experiments in which ice floe and wave characteristics are varied to examine their effects on energy dissipation, MIZ floe size distribution, and ice pack retreat rates. Although Wadhams et al. (1986) suggest that only a small portion (roughly 10%) of wave energy entering the MIZ is reflected, dissipation mechanisms for the remaining energy have yet to be delineated or measured. The virtual experiments are designed to focus on specific properties and processes - such as floe size and shape, collision and fracturing events, and variations in wave climate - and measure their relative roles the transfer of energy and momentum from waves to ice. Questions to be examined include: How is energy dissipated by ice floe collisions, fracturing, and drag, and how significant is the wave attenuation associated with each process? Do specific wave/floe length scale ratios cause greater wave attenuation? How does ice material strength affect the rate of wave energy loss? The coupled system will ultimately be used to test and improve upon wave-ice parameterizations for large-scale climate models. References: >Kloss, C., C. Goniva, A. Hager, S. Amberger, and S. Pirker (2012). Models, algorithms and validation for opensource DEM and CFD-DEM. Progress in Computational Fluid Dynamics 12(2/3), 140-152. >Ma, G

  13. Validation of Modelled Ice Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Historical Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Tezaur, I.; Kennedy, J. H.; Lenaerts, J.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Saba, J. L.; Salinger, A.; Guerber, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Although ice sheet models are used for sea level rise projections, the degree to which these models have been validated by observations is fairly limited, due in part to the limited duration of the satellite observation era and the long adjustment time scales of ice sheets. Here we describe a validation framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet applied to the Community Ice Sheet Model by forcing the model annually with flux anomalies at the major outlet glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014, observed from Landsat/ASTER/Operation IceBridge) and surface mass balance (van Angelen et al., 2013, calculated from RACMO2) for the period 1991-2012. The ice sheet model output is compared to ice surface elevation observations from ICESat and ice sheet mass change observations from GRACE. Early results show promise for assessing the performance of different model configurations. Additionally, we explore the effect of ice sheet model resolution on validation skill.

  14. The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika

    A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

  15. The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP): Understanding sea ice through climate-model simulations

    DOE PAGES

    Notz, Dirk; Jahn, Alexandra; Holland, Marika; ...

    2016-09-23

    A better understanding of the role of sea ice for the changing climate of our planet is the central aim of the diagnostic Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6)-endorsed Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). To reach this aim, SIMIP requests sea-ice-related variables from climate-model simulations that allow for a better understanding and, ultimately, improvement of biases and errors in sea-ice simulations with large-scale climate models. This then allows us to better understand to what degree CMIP6 model simulations relate to reality, thus improving our confidence in answering sea-ice-related questions based on these simulations. Furthermore, the SIMIP protocol provides a standardmore » for sea-ice model output that will streamline and hence simplify the analysis of the simulated sea-ice evolution in research projects independent of CMIP. To reach its aims, SIMIP provides a structured list of model output that allows for an examination of the three main budgets that govern the evolution of sea ice, namely the heat budget, the momentum budget, and the mass budget. Furthermore, we explain the aims of SIMIP in more detail and outline how its design allows us to answer some of the most pressing questions that sea ice still poses to the international climate-research community.« less

  16. Generation of Fullspan Leading-Edge 3D Ice Shapes for Swept-Wing Aerodynamic Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Camello, Stephanie C.; Lee, Sam; Lum, Christopher; Bragg, Michael B.

    2016-01-01

    The deleterious effect of ice accretion on aircraft is often assessed through dry-air flight and wind tunnel testing with artificial ice shapes. This paper describes a method to create fullspan swept-wing artificial ice shapes from partial span ice segments acquired in the NASA Glenn Icing Reserch Tunnel for aerodynamic wind-tunnel testing. Full-scale ice accretion segments were laser scanned from the Inboard, Midspan, and Outboard wing station models of the 65% scale Common Research Model (CRM65) aircraft configuration. These were interpolated and extrapolated using a weighted averaging method to generate fullspan ice shapes from the root to the tip of the CRM65 wing. The results showed that this interpolation method was able to preserve many of the highly three dimensional features typically found on swept-wing ice accretions. The interpolated fullspan ice shapes were then scaled to fit the leading edge of a 8.9% scale version of the CRM65 wing for aerodynamic wind-tunnel testing. Reduced fidelity versions of the fullspan ice shapes were also created where most of the local three-dimensional features were removed. The fullspan artificial ice shapes and the reduced fidelity versions were manufactured using stereolithography.

  17. User's Manual for LEWICE Version 3.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William

    2008-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce a computer code which can accurately predict ice growth under a wide range of meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present a description of the code inputs and outputs from version 3.2 of this software, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from release 2.0 due to the addition of advanced thermal analysis capabilities for de-icing and anti-icing applications using electrothermal heaters or bleed air applications, the addition of automated Navier-Stokes analysis, an empirical model for supercooled large droplets (SLD) and a pneumatic boot option. An extensive effort was also undertaken to compare the results against the database of electrothermal results which have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) as was performed for the validation effort for version 2.0. This report will primarily describe the features of the software related to the use of the program. Appendix A has been included to list some of the inner workings of the software or the physical models used. This information is also available in the form of several unpublished documents internal to NASA. This report is intended as a replacement for all previous user manuals of LEWICE. In addition to describing the changes and improvements made for this version, information from previous manuals may be duplicated so that the user will not need to consult previous manuals to use this software.

  18. CICE, The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hunke, Elizabeth; Lipscomb, William; Jones, Philip

    The Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) is the result of an effort to develop a computationally efficient sea ice component for a fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–ice global climate model. It was originally designed to be compatible with the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), an ocean circulation model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use on massively parallel computers. CICE has several interacting components: a vertical thermodynamic model that computes local growth rates of snow and ice due to vertical conductive, radiative and turbulent fluxes, along with snowfall; an elastic-viscous-plastic model of ice dynamics, which predicts the velocity field of themore » ice pack based on a model of the material strength of the ice; an incremental remapping transport model that describes horizontal advection of the areal concentration, ice and snow volume and other state variables; and a ridging parameterization that transfers ice among thickness categories based on energetic balances and rates of strain. It also includes a biogeochemical model that describes evolution of the ice ecosystem. The CICE sea ice model is used for climate research as one component of complex global earth system models that include atmosphere, land, ocean and biogeochemistry components. It is also used for operational sea ice forecasting in the polar regions and in numerical weather prediction models.« less

  19. Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

  20. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

    2013-08-01

    The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

  1. Modeling ocean wave propagation under sea ice covers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xin; Shen, Hayley H.; Cheng, Sukun

    2015-02-01

    Operational ocean wave models need to work globally, yet current ocean wave models can only treat ice-covered regions crudely. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief overview of ice effects on wave propagation and different research methodology used in studying these effects. Based on its proximity to land or sea, sea ice can be classified as: landfast ice zone, shear zone, and the marginal ice zone. All ice covers attenuate wave energy. Only long swells can penetrate deep into an ice cover. Being closest to open water, wave propagation in the marginal ice zone is the most complex to model. The physical appearance of sea ice in the marginal ice zone varies. Grease ice, pancake ice, brash ice, floe aggregates, and continuous ice sheet may be found in this zone at different times and locations. These types of ice are formed under different thermal-mechanical forcing. There are three classic models that describe wave propagation through an idealized ice cover: mass loading, thin elastic plate, and viscous layer models. From physical arguments we may conjecture that mass loading model is suitable for disjoint aggregates of ice floes much smaller than the wavelength, thin elastic plate model is suitable for a continuous ice sheet, and the viscous layer model is suitable for grease ice. For different sea ice types we may need different wave ice interaction models. A recently proposed viscoelastic model is able to synthesize all three classic models into one. Under suitable limiting conditions it converges to the three previous models. The complete theoretical framework for evaluating wave propagation through various ice covers need to be implemented in the operational ocean wave models. In this review, we introduce the sea ice types, previous wave ice interaction models, wave attenuation mechanisms, the methods to calculate wave reflection and transmission between different ice covers, and the effect of ice floe breaking on shaping the sea ice morphology

  2. Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

    2014-12-01

    Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic

  3. Recent Advances in the LEWICE Icing Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Addy, Gene; Struk, Peter; Bartkus, Tadas

    2015-01-01

    This paper will describe two recent modifications to the Glenn ICE software. First, a capability for modeling ice crystals and mixed phase icing has been modified based on recent experimental data. Modifications have been made to the ice particle bouncing and erosion model. This capability has been added as part of a larger effort to model ice crystal ingestion in aircraft engines. Comparisons have been made to ice crystal ice accretions performed in the NRC Research Altitude Test Facility (RATFac). Second, modifications were made to the run back model based on data and observations from thermal scaling tests performed in the NRC Altitude Icing Tunnel.

  4. The Community Climate System Model Version 4

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.

    The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all the CCSM components, and documents fully coupled pre-industrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1{sup o} results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4{sup o} resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in the CCSM4 producing El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than themore » CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. They also improve the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the deep ocean density structure, especially in the North Atlantic. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than the CCSM3, and the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in the CCSM4. An ensemble of 20th century simulations runs produce an excellent match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally-averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4 C. This is consistent with the fact that the CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of short-wave and long-wave cloud forcings.« less

  5. Toward Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Using the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamal, S.; Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Seefeldt, M. W.

    2017-12-01

    The Regional Arctic system model has been developed and used to advance the current state of Arctic modeling and increase the skill of sea ice forecast. RASM is a fully coupled, limited-area model that includes the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land hydrology and runoff routing components and the flux coupler to exchange information among them. Boundary conditions are derived from NCEP Climate Forecasting System Reanalyses (CFSR) or Era Iterim (ERA-I) for hindcast simulations or from NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) for seasonal forecasts. We have used RASM to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN). Each year, we produced three SIOs for the September minimum, initialized on June 1, July 1 and August 1. In 2016, predictions used a simple linear regression model to correct for systematic biases and included the mean September sea ice extent, the daily minimum and the week of the minimum. In 2017, we produced a 12-member ensemble on June 1 and July 1, and 28-member ensemble August 1. The predictions of September 2017 included the pan-Arctic and regional Alaskan sea ice extent, daily and monthly mean pan-Arctic maps of sea ice probability, concentration and thickness. No bias correction was applied to the 2017 forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss future plans for RASM forecasts, which include increased resolution for model components, ecosystem predictions with marine biogeochemistry extensions (mBGC) to the ocean and sea ice components, and feasibility of optional boundary conditions using the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM).

  6. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on

  7. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few

  8. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    PubMed Central

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

    2018-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the

  9. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

    PubMed

    Price, Stephen F; Hoffman, Matthew J; Bonin, Jennifer A; Howat, Ian M; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P; Evans, Katherine J; Kennedy, Joseph H; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G; Tuminaro, Raymond S; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Nowicki, Sophie M J

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past

  10. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

    DOE PAGES

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

    2017-01-17

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few

  11. An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of less than 1 meter). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred

  12. Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

    2017-12-01

    The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

  13. Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

    2013-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led

  14. Sensitivities of Greenland ice sheet volume inferred from an ice sheet adjoint model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

    2009-04-01

    We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. Since its introduction by MacAyeal (1992), the adjoint method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters such as basal conditions. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. As a first step toward the use of adjoints of comprehensive three-dimensional ice sheet models we have generated an adjoint of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated by means of the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. The AD tool generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the nonlinear parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. By way of example, we determine the sensitivity of the total Greenland ice volume to various control variables, such as spatial fields of basal flow parameters, surface and basal forcings, and initial conditions. Reliability of the adjoint was tested through finite-difference perturbation calculations for various control variables and perturbation regions. Besides confirming qualitative aspects of ice sheet sensitivities, such as expected regional variations, we detect regions where model sensitivities are seemingly unexpected or counter-intuitive, albeit ``real'' in the sense of actual model behavior. An example is inferred regions where sensitivities of ice sheet volume to basal sliding coefficient are positive, i.e. where a local increase in basal sliding parameter increases the ice sheet volume. Similarly, positive ice temperature sensitivities in certain parts

  15. Devon Ice cap's future: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling via surface mass balance modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodehacke, C. B.; Mottram, R.; Boberg, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we various boundary conditions, ranging from ERA-Interim reanalysis data via global climate model high resolution (5km) output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, to determine the surface mass balance of the Devon ice cap. These SMB estimates are used to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

  16. Present-day Circum-Antarctic Simulations using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Price, S. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and with adaptive ice-sheet model resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal trends in submarine melting from several Antarctic regions. Finally, we explore the influence on basal melting and system dynamics resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a "normal-year" climatology and the CORE v. 2 forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008).POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3D; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).A companion presentation, "Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model" in session C024 covers the ice-sheet response to these melt rates in the coupled simulation

  17. Towards Improving Sea Ice Predictabiity: Evaluating Climate Models Against Satellite Sea Ice Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The last four decades have seen a remarkable decline in the spatial extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, presenting both challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and industry. After the record low extent in September 2007 effort has increased to improve seasonal, decadal-scale and longer-term predictions of the sea ice cover. Coupled global climate models (GCMs) consistently project that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the eventual outcome will be a complete loss of the multiyear ice cover. However, confidence in these projections depends o HoHoweon the models ability to reproduce features of the present-day climate. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that (1) historical trends from 85% of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and (2) spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance. Efforts such as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project, originally organized through the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH) and now managed by the Sea Ice Prediction Network project (SIPN) synthesize predictions of the September sea ice extent based on a variety of approaches, including heuristic, statistical and dynamical modeling. Analysis of SIO contributions reveals that when the

  18. Modeling of Antarctic Sea Ice in a General Circulation Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xingren; Simmonds, Ian; Budd, W. F.

    1997-04-01

    A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distribution. The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. A lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution.

  19. Modeling of Antarctic sea ice in a general circulation model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wu, Xingren; Budd, W.F.; Simmonds, I.

    1997-04-01

    A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is developed and coupled with the Melbourne University general circulation model to simulate the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice distributions The model is efficient, rapid to compute, and useful for a range of climate studies. The thermodynamic part of the sea ice model is similar to that developed by Parkinson and Washington, the dynamics contain a simplified ice rheology that resists compression. The thermodynamics is based on energy conservation at the top surface of the ice/snow, the ice/water interface, and the open water area to determine the ice formation, accretion, and ablation. Amore » lead parameterization is introduced with an effective partitioning scheme for freezing between and under the ice floes. The dynamic calculation determines the motion of ice, which is forced with the atmospheric wind, taking account of ice resistance and rafting. The simulated sea ice distribution compares reasonably well with observations. The seasonal cycle of ice extent is well simulated in phase as well as in magnitude. Simulated sea ice thickness and concentration are also in good agreement with observations over most regions and serve to indicate the importance of advection and ocean drift in the determination of the sea ice distribution. 64 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.« less

  20. Numerical model of ice melange expansion during abrupt ice-shelf collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guttenberg, N.; Abbot, D. S.; Amundson, J. M.; Burton, J. C.; Cathles, L. M.; Macayeal, D. R.; Zhang, W.

    2010-12-01

    Satellite imagery of the February 2008 Wilkins Ice-Shelf Collapse event reveals that a large percentage of the involved ice shelf was converted to capsized icebergs and broken fragments of icebergs over a relatively short period of time, possibly less than 24 hours. The extreme violence and short time scale of the event, and the considerable reduction of gravitational potential energy between upright and capsized icebergs, suggests that iceberg capsize might be an important driving mechanism controlling both the rate and spatial extent of ice shelf collapse. To investigate this suggestion, we have constructed an idealized, 2-dimensional model of a disintegrating ice shelf composed of a large number (N~100 to >1000) of initially well-packed icebergs of rectangular cross section. The model geometry consists of a longitudinal cross section of the idealized ice shelf from grounding line (or the upstream extent of ice-shelf fragmentation) to seaward ice front, and includes the region beyond the initial ice front to cover the open, ice-free water into which the collapsing ice shelf expands. The seawater in which the icebergs float is treated as a hydrostatic fluid in the computation of iceberg orientation (e.g., the evaluation of buoyancy forces and torques), thereby eliminating the complexities of free-surface waves, but net horizontal drift of the icebergs is resisted by a linear drag law designed to energy dissipation by viscous forces and surface-gravity-wave radiation. Icebergs interact via both elastic and inelastic contacts (typically a corner of one iceberg will scrape along the face of its neighbor). Ice-shelf collapse in the model is embodied by the mass capsize of a large proportion of the initially packed icebergs and the consequent advancement of the ice front (leading edge). Model simulations are conducted to examine (a) the threshold of stability (e.g., what density of initially capsizable icebergs is needed to allow a small perturbation to the system

  1. Sensitivity of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xiaoxu; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2017-09-01

    A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. The changes are further amplified through a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), owing to the interhemispheric bipolar seasaw linked to AMOC weakening. Another insight of this study lies on the improvement of our climate model. The ocean component FESOM is a newly developed ocean-sea ice model with an unstructured mesh and multi-resolution. We find that the subpolar sea-ice boundary in the Northern Hemisphere can be improved by tuning the process of open-water ice growth, which strongly influences the sea ice concentration in the marginal ice zone, the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and Arctic sea ice volume. Since the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters and the knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude, it is a challenge to implement the processes realistically into models. Based on our sensitivity experiments, we conclude a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity.

  2. Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

    2014-08-01

    The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these

  3. Sensitivity of an Antarctic Ice Sheet Model to Sub-Ice-Shelf Melting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipscomb, W. H.; Leguy, G.; Urban, N. M.; Berdahl, M.

    2017-12-01

    Theory and observations suggest that marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet could retreat rapidly under ocean warming and increased melting beneath ice shelves. Numerical models of marine ice sheets vary widely in sensitivity, depending on grid resolution and the parameterization of key processes (e.g., calving and hydrofracture). Here we study the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean warming and sub-shelf melting in standalone simulations of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Melt rates either are prescribed based on observations and high-resolution ocean model output, or are derived from a plume model forced by idealized ocean temperature profiles. In CISM, we vary the model resolution (between 1 and 8 km), Stokes approximation (shallow-shelf, depth-integrated higher-order, or 3D higher-order) and calving scheme to create an ensemble of plausible responses to sub-shelf melting. This work supports a broader goal of building statistical and reduced models that can translate large-scale Earth-system model projections to changes in Antarctic ocean temperatures and ice sheet discharge, thus better quantifying uncertainty in Antarctic-sourced sea-level rise.

  4. Sea Ice in the NCEP Seasonal Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Saha, S.; Grumbine, R. W.; Bailey, D. A.; Carton, J.; Penny, S. G.

    2017-12-01

    Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and also carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future seasonal prediction system, part of the Unified Global Coupled System (UGCS), which is being developed and under testing, including sea ice data assimilation with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Preliminary results from the UGCS testing will also be presented.

  5. RTopo-2: A global high-resolution dataset of ice sheet topography, ice shelf cavity geometry and ocean bathymetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermann, Ralph; Schaffer, Janin

    2016-04-01

    The RTopo-1 data set of Antarctic ice sheet/shelf geometry and global ocean bathymetry has proven useful not only for modelling studies of ice-ocean interaction in the southern hemisphere. Following the spirit of this data set, we introduce a new product (RTopo-2) that contains consistent maps of global ocean bathymetry, upper and lower ice surface topographies for Greenland and Antarctica, and global surface height on a spherical grid with now 30 arc seconds resolution. We used the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO_2014) as the backbone and added the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean version 3 (IBCAOv3) and the International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean (IBCSO) version 1. To achieve a good representation of the fjord and shelf bathymetry around the Greenland continent, we corrected data from earlier gridded products in the areas of Petermann Glacier, Hagen Bræ and Helheim Glacier assuming that sub-ice and fjord bathymetries roughly follow plausible Last Glacial Maximum ice flow patterns. For the continental shelf off northeast Greenland and the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier at about 79°N, we incorporated a high-resolution digital bathymetry model including all available multibeam survey data for the region. Radar data for ice surface and ice base topographies of the floating ice tongues of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier and Zachariæ Isstrøm have been obtained from the data centers of Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Operation Icebridge (NASA/NSF) and Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI). For the Antarctic ice sheet/ice shelves, RTopo-2 largely relies on the Bedmap-2 product but applies corrections for the geometry of Getz, Abbot and Fimbul ice shelf cavities. The data set is available in full and in regional subsets in NetCDF format from the PANGAEA database.

  6. Modeling Europa's Ice-Ocean Interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elsenousy, A.; Vance, S.; Bills, B. G.

    2014-12-01

    This work focuses on modeling the ice-ocean interface on Jupiter's Moon (Europa); mainly from the standpoint of heat and salt transfer relationship with emphasis on the basal ice growth rate and its implications to Europa's tidal response. Modeling the heat and salt flux at Europa's ice/ocean interface is necessary to understand the dynamics of Europa's ocean and its interaction with the upper ice shell as well as the history of active turbulence at this area. To achieve this goal, we used McPhee et al., 2008 parameterizations on Earth's ice/ocean interface that was developed to meet Europa's ocean dynamics. We varied one parameter at a time to test its influence on both; "h" the basal ice growth rate and on "R" the double diffusion tendency strength. The double diffusion tendency "R" was calculated as the ratio between the interface heat exchange coefficient αh to the interface salt exchange coefficient αs. Our preliminary results showed a strong double diffusion tendency R ~200 at Europa's ice-ocean interface for plausible changes in the heat flux due to onset or elimination of a hydrothermal activity, suggesting supercooling and a strong tendency for forming frazil ice.

  7. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  8. Variational Ridging in Sea Ice Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, A.; Hunke, E. C.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Maslowski, W.; Kamal, S.

    2017-12-01

    This work presents the results of a new development to make basin-scale sea ice models aware of the shape, porosity and extent of individual ridges within the pack. We have derived an analytic solution for the Euler-Lagrange equation of individual ridges that accounts for non-conservative forces, and therefore the compressive strength of individual ridges. Because a region of the pack is simply a collection of paths of individual ridges, we are able to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for a large-scale sea ice field also, and therefore the compressive strength of a region of the pack that explicitly accounts for the macro-porosity of ridged debris. We make a number of assumptions that have simplified the problem, such as treating sea ice as a granular material in ridges, and assuming that bending moments associated with ridging are perturbations around an isostatic state. Regardless of these simplifications, the ridge model is remarkably predictive of macro-porosity and ridge shape, and, because our equations are analytic, they do not require costly computations to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation of ridges on the large scale. The new ridge model is therefore applicable to large-scale sea ice models. We present results from this theoretical development, as well as plans to apply it to the Regional Arctic System Model and a community sea ice code. Most importantly, the new ridging model is particularly useful for pinpointing gaps in our observational record of sea ice ridges, and points to the need for improved measurements of the evolution of porosity of deformed ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Such knowledge is not only useful for improving models, but also for improving estimates of sea ice volume derived from altimetric measurements of sea ice freeboard.

  9. Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bromwich, David H.; Hines, Keith M.

    2004-01-01

    A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

  10. The response of grounded ice to ocean temperature forcing in a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2010-12-01

    Ice shelves provide a pathway for the heat content of the ocean to influence continental ice sheets. Changes in the rate or location of basal melting can alter their geometry and effect changes in stress conditions at the grounding line, leading to a grounded ice response. Recent observations of ice streams and ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have been consistent with this story. On the other hand, ice dynamics in the grounding zone control flux into the shelf and thus ice shelf geometry, which has a strong influence on the circulation in the cavity beneath the shelf. Thus the coupling between the two systems, ocean and ice sheet-ice shelf, can be quite strong. We examine the response of the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity system to changes in ocean temperature using a recently developed coupled model. The coupled model consists a 3-D ocean model (GFDL's Generalized Ocean Layered Dynamics model, or GOLD) to a two-dimensional ice sheet-ice shelf model (Goldberg et al, 2009), and allows for changing cavity geometry and a migrating grounding line. Steady states of the coupled system are found even under considerable forcing. The ice shelf morphology and basal melt rate patterns of the steady states exhibit detailed structure, and furthermore seem to be unique and robust. The relationship between temperature forcing and area-averaged melt rate is influenced by the response of ice shelf morphology to thermal forcing, and is found to be sublinear in the range of forcing considered. However, results suggest that area-averaged melt rate is not the best predictor of overall system response, as grounding line stability depends on local aspects of the basal melt field. Goldberg, D N, D M Holland and C G Schoof, 2009. Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surfaces, 114, F04026.

  11. Wave-Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a Wave-Ocean-Ice Coupled Modeling System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    MIZ using WW3 (3 frequency bins, ice retreat in August and ice advance in October); Blue (solid): Based on observations near Antarctica by Meylan...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Wave- Ice interaction in the Marginal Ice Zone: Toward a...Wave-Ocean- Ice Coupled Modeling System W. E. Rogers Naval Research Laboratory, Code 7322 Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 phone: (228) 688-4727

  12. Deterministic multi-zone ice accretion modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yamaguchi, K.; Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Kazmierczak, Michael

    1991-01-01

    The focus here is on a deterministic model of the surface roughness transition behavior of glaze ice. The initial smooth/rough transition location, bead formation, and the propagation of the transition location are analyzed. Based on the hypothesis that the smooth/rough transition location coincides with the laminar/turbulent boundary layer transition location, a multizone model is implemented in the LEWICE code. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, ice accretion predictions for simple cylinders calculated by the multizone LEWICE are compared to experimental ice shapes. The glaze ice shapes are found to be sensitive to the laminar surface roughness and bead thickness parameters controlling the transition location, while the ice shapes are found to be insensitive to the turbulent surface roughness.

  13. Arctic Sea Ice Classification and Mapping for Surface Albedo Parameterization in Sea Ice Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Clemente-Colón, P.; Perovich, D. K.; Polashenski, C.; Simpson, W. R.; Rigor, I. G.; Woods, J. E.; Nguyen, D. T.; Neumann, G.

    2016-12-01

    A regime shift of Arctic sea ice from predominantly perennial sea ice (multi-year ice or MYI) to seasonal sea ice (first-year ice or FYI) has occurred in recent decades. This shift has profoundly altered the proportional composition of different sea ice classes and the surface albedo distribution pertaining to each sea ice class. Such changes impacts physical, chemical, and biological processes in the Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The drastic changes upset the traditional geophysical representation of surface albedo of the Arctic sea ice cover in current models. A critical science issue is that these profound changes must be rigorously and systematically observed and characterized to enable a transformative re-parameterization of key model inputs, such as ice surface albedo, to ice-ocean-atmosphere climate modeling in order to obtain re-analyses that accurately reproduce Arctic changes and also to improve sea ice and weather forecast models. Addressing this challenge is a strategy identified by the National Research Council study on "Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice - Challenges and Strategies" to replicate the new Arctic reality. We review results of albedo characteristics associated with different sea ice classes such as FYI and MYI. Then we demonstrate the capability for sea ice classification and mapping using algorithms developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and by the U.S. National Ice Center for use with multi-sourced satellite radar data at L, C, and Ku bands. Results obtained with independent algorithms for different radar frequencies consistently identify sea ice classes and thereby cross-verify the sea ice classification methods. Moreover, field observations obtained from buoy webcams and along an extensive trek across Elson Lagoon and a sector of the Beaufort Sea during the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) in March 2012 are used to validate satellite products of sea ice classes. This research enables the mapping

  14. Sea Ice Biogeochemistry: A Guide for Modellers

    PubMed Central

    Tedesco, Letizia; Vichi, Marcello

    2014-01-01

    Sea ice is a fundamental component of the climate system and plays a key role in polar trophic food webs. Nonetheless sea ice biogeochemical dynamics at large temporal and spatial scales are still rarely described. Numerical models may potentially contribute integrating among sparse observations, but available models of sea ice biogeochemistry are still scarce, whether their relevance for properly describing the current and future state of the polar oceans has been recently addressed. A general methodology to develop a sea ice biogeochemical model is presented, deriving it from an existing validated model application by extension of generic pelagic biogeochemistry model parameterizations. The described methodology is flexible and considers different levels of ecosystem complexity and vertical representation, while adopting a strategy of coupling that ensures mass conservation. We show how to apply this methodology step by step by building an intermediate complexity model from a published realistic application and applying it to analyze theoretically a typical season of first-year sea ice in the Arctic, the one currently needing the most urgent understanding. The aim is to (1) introduce sea ice biogeochemistry and address its relevance to ocean modelers of polar regions, supporting them in adding a new sea ice component to their modelling framework for a more adequate representation of the sea ice-covered ocean ecosystem as a whole, and (2) extend our knowledge on the relevant controlling factors of sea ice algal production, showing that beyond the light and nutrient availability, the duration of the sea ice season may play a key-role shaping the algal production during the on going and upcoming projected changes. PMID:24586604

  15. Multiscale Models of Melting Arctic Sea Ice

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    September 29, 2013 LONG-TERM GOALS Sea ice reflectance or albedo , a key parameter in climate modeling, is primarily determined by melt pond...and ice floe configurations. Ice - albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However...understanding the evolution of melt ponds and sea ice albedo remains a significant challenge to improving climate models. Our research is focused on

  16. Flight test report of the NASA icing research airplane: Performance, stability, and control after flight through natural icing conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, J. L.; Platz, S. J.; Schinstock, W. C.

    1986-01-01

    Flight test results are presented documenting the effect of airframe icing on performance and stability and control of a NASA DHC-6 icing research aircraft. Kohlman System Research, Inc., provided the data acquisition system and data analysis under contract to NASA. Performance modeling methods and MMLE techniques were used to determine the effects of natural ice on the aircraft. Results showed that ice had a significant effect on the drag coefficient of the aircraft and a modest effect on the MMLE derived longitudinal stability coefficients (code version MMLE). Data is also presented on asymmetric power sign slip maneuvers showing rudder floating characteristics with and without ice on the vertical stabilizer.

  17. Bayesian inference of ice thickness from remote-sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werder, Mauro A.; Huss, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Knowledge about ice thickness and volume is indispensable for studying ice dynamics, future sea-level rise due to glacier melt or their contribution to regional hydrology. Accurate measurements of glacier thickness require on-site work, usually employing radar techniques. However, these field measurements are time consuming, expensive and sometime downright impossible. Conversely, measurements of the ice surface, namely elevation and flow velocity, are becoming available world-wide through remote sensing. The model of Farinotti et al. (2009) calculates ice thicknesses based on a mass conservation approach paired with shallow ice physics using estimates of the surface mass balance. The presented work applies a Bayesian inference approach to estimate the parameters of a modified version of this forward model by fitting it to both measurements of surface flow speed and of ice thickness. The inverse model outputs ice thickness as well the distribution of the error. We fit the model to ten test glaciers and ice caps and quantify the improvements of thickness estimates through the usage of surface ice flow measurements.

  18. Simulation Model Development for Icing Effects Flight Training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barnhart, Billy P.; Dickes, Edward G.; Gingras, David R.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.

    2003-01-01

    A high-fidelity simulation model for icing effects flight training was developed from wind tunnel data for the DeHavilland DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft. First, a flight model of the un-iced airplane was developed and then modifications were generated to model the icing conditions. The models were validated against data records from the NASA Twin Otter Icing Research flight test program with only minimal refinements being required. The goals of this program were to demonstrate the effectiveness of such a simulator for training pilots to recognize and recover from icing situations and to establish a process for modeling icing effects to be used for future training devices.

  19. Sensitivity studies with a coupled ice-ocean model of the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roed, L. P.

    1983-01-01

    An analytical coupled ice-ocean model is considered which is forced by a specified wind stress acting on the open ocean as well as the ice. The analysis supports the conjecture that the upwelling dynamics at ice edges can be understood by means of a simple analytical model. In similarity with coastal problems it is shown that the ice edge upwelling is determined by the net mass flux at the boundaries of the considered region. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the upwelling dynamics in the marginal ice zone to variation in the controlling parameters. These parameters consist of combinations of the drag coefficients used in the parameterization of the stresses on the three interfaces atmosphere-ice, atmosphere-ocean, and ice-ocean. The response is shown to be sensitive to variations in these parameters in that one set of parameters may give upwelling while a slightly different set of parameters may give downwelling.

  20. Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vickerman, Mary B.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Cotton, Barbara J.; Choo, Yung K.; Coroneos, Rula M.; Pennline, James A.; Hackenberg, Anthony W.; Schilling, Herbert W.; Slater, John W.; hide

    2004-01-01

    SmaggIce version 1.2 is a computer program for preparing and analyzing iced airfoils. It includes interactive tools for (1) measuring ice-shape characteristics, (2) controlled smoothing of ice shapes, (3) curve discretization, (4) generation of artificial ice shapes, and (5) detection and correction of input errors. Measurements of ice shapes are essential for establishing relationships between characteristics of ice and effects of ice on airfoil performance. The shape-smoothing tool helps prepare ice shapes for use with already available grid-generation and computational-fluid-dynamics software for studying the aerodynamic effects of smoothed ice on airfoils. The artificial ice-shape generation tool supports parametric studies since ice-shape parameters can easily be controlled with the artificial ice. In such studies, artificial shapes generated by this program can supplement simulated ice obtained from icing research tunnels and real ice obtained from flight test under icing weather condition. SmaggIce also automatically detects geometry errors such as tangles or duplicate points in the boundary which may be introduced by digitization and provides tools to correct these. By use of interactive tools included in SmaggIce version 1.2, one can easily characterize ice shapes and prepare iced airfoils for grid generation and flow simulations.

  1. Effects of pre-existing ice crystals on cirrus clouds and comparison between different ice nucleation parameterizations with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shi, Xiangjun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai

    In order to improve the treatment of ice nucleation in a more realistic manner in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3), the effects of pre-existing ice crystals on ice nucleation in cirrus clouds are considered. In addition, by considering the in-cloud variability in ice saturation ratio, homogeneous nucleation takes place spatially only in a portion of the cirrus cloud rather than in the whole area of the cirrus cloud. Compared to observations, the ice number concentrations and the probability distributions of ice number concentration are both improved with the updated treatment. The pre-existing ice crystals significantly reduce ice numbermore » concentrations in cirrus clouds, especially at mid- to high latitudes in the upper troposphere (by a factor of ~10). Furthermore, the contribution of heterogeneous ice nucleation to cirrus ice crystal number increases considerably. Besides the default ice nucleation parameterization of Liu and Penner (2005, hereafter LP) in CAM5.3, two other ice nucleation parameterizations of Barahona and Nenes (2009, hereafter BN) and Kärcher et al. (2006, hereafter KL) are implemented in CAM5.3 for the comparison. In-cloud ice crystal number concentration, percentage contribution from heterogeneous ice nucleation to total ice crystal number, and pre-existing ice effects simulated by the three ice nucleation parameterizations have similar patterns in the simulations with present-day aerosol emissions. However, the change (present-day minus pre-industrial times) in global annual mean column ice number concentration from the KL parameterization (3.24 × 10 6 m -2) is less than that from the LP (8.46 × 10 6 m -2) and BN (5.62 × 10 6 m -2) parameterizations. As a result, the experiment using the KL parameterization predicts a much smaller anthropogenic aerosol long-wave indirect forcing (0.24 W m -2) than that using the LP (0.46 W m −2) and BN (0.39 W m -2) parameterizations.« less

  2. Effects of pre-existing ice crystals on cirrus clouds and comparison between different ice nucleation parameterizations with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5)

    DOE PAGES

    Shi, Xiangjun; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai

    2015-02-11

    In order to improve the treatment of ice nucleation in a more realistic manner in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3), the effects of pre-existing ice crystals on ice nucleation in cirrus clouds are considered. In addition, by considering the in-cloud variability in ice saturation ratio, homogeneous nucleation takes place spatially only in a portion of the cirrus cloud rather than in the whole area of the cirrus cloud. Compared to observations, the ice number concentrations and the probability distributions of ice number concentration are both improved with the updated treatment. The pre-existing ice crystals significantly reduce ice numbermore » concentrations in cirrus clouds, especially at mid- to high latitudes in the upper troposphere (by a factor of ~10). Furthermore, the contribution of heterogeneous ice nucleation to cirrus ice crystal number increases considerably. Besides the default ice nucleation parameterization of Liu and Penner (2005, hereafter LP) in CAM5.3, two other ice nucleation parameterizations of Barahona and Nenes (2009, hereafter BN) and Kärcher et al. (2006, hereafter KL) are implemented in CAM5.3 for the comparison. In-cloud ice crystal number concentration, percentage contribution from heterogeneous ice nucleation to total ice crystal number, and pre-existing ice effects simulated by the three ice nucleation parameterizations have similar patterns in the simulations with present-day aerosol emissions. However, the change (present-day minus pre-industrial times) in global annual mean column ice number concentration from the KL parameterization (3.24 × 10 6 m -2) is less than that from the LP (8.46 × 10 6 m -2) and BN (5.62 × 10 6 m -2) parameterizations. As a result, the experiment using the KL parameterization predicts a much smaller anthropogenic aerosol long-wave indirect forcing (0.24 W m -2) than that using the LP (0.46 W m −2) and BN (0.39 W m -2) parameterizations.« less

  3. Particle Trajectory and Icing Analysis of the E(sup 3) Turbofan Engine Using LEWICE3D Version 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin S.

    2011-01-01

    Particle trajectory and ice shape calculations were made for the Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)) using the LEWICE3D Version 3 software. The particle trajectory and icing computations were performed using the new "block-to-block" collection efficiency method which has been incorporated into the LEWICE3D Version 3 software. The E(sup 3) was developed by NASA and GE in the early 1980 s as a technology demonstrator and is representative of a modern high bypass turbofan engine. The E(sup 3) flow field was calculated using the NASA Glenn ADPAC turbomachinery flow solver. Computations were performed for the low pressure compressor of the E(sup 3) for a Mach 0.8 cruise condition at 11,887 m assuming a standard warm day for three drop sizes and two drop distributions typically used in aircraft design and certification. Particle trajectory computations were made for water drop sizes of 5, 20, and 100 microns. Particle trajectory and ice shape predictions were made for a 20 micron Langmuir-D distribution and for a 92 mm Super-cooled Large Droplet (SLD) distribution with and without splashing effects for a Liquid Water Content (LWC) of 0.3 g/cu m and an icing time of 30 min. The E3 fan and spinner combination proved to be an effective ice removal mechanism as they removed greater than 36 percent of the mass entering the inlet for the icing cases. The maximum free stream catch fraction for the fan and spinner combination was 0.60 while that on the elements downstream of the fan was 0.03. The non-splashing trajectory and collection efficiency results showed that as drop size increased impingement rates increased on the spinner and fan leaving less mass to impinge on downstream components. The SLD splashing case yielded more mass downstream of the fan than the SLD non-splashing case due to mass being splashed from the upstream inlet lip, spinner and fan components. The ice shapes generated downstream of the fan were either small or nonexistent due to the small available mass

  4. Advancements in the LEWICE Ice Accretion Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.

    1993-01-01

    Recent evidence has shown that the NASA/Lewis Ice Accretion Model, LEWICE, does not predict accurate ice shapes for certain glaze ice conditions. This paper will present the methodology used to make a first attempt at improving the ice accretion prediction in these regimes. Importance is given to the correlations for heat transfer coefficient and ice density, as well as runback flow, selection of the transition point, flow field resolution, and droplet trajectory models. Further improvements and refinement of these modules will be performed once tests in NASA's Icing Research Tunnel, scheduled for 1993, are completed.

  5. Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

    2017-04-01

    Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

  6. Domestic Ice Breaking Simulation Model User Guide

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-01

    Temperatures” sub-module. Notes on Ice Data Sources Selected Historical Ice Data *** D9 Historical (SIGRID Coded) NBL Waterways * D9 Waterway...numbers in NBL scheme D9 Historical Ice Data (Feet Thickness) Main Model Waterways * SIGRID code conversion to feet of ice thickness D9 Historical Ice Data...Feet Thickness) NBL Waterways * SIGRID codes Years for Ice Data ** Types of Ice Waterway Time Selected Ice and Weather Data Years DOMICE Simulation

  7. An ice-ocean coupled model for the Northern Hemisphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, Abe; Preller, Ruth

    1992-01-01

    The Hibler ice model has been modified and adapted to a domain that includes most of the sea ice-covered areas in the Northern Hemisphere. This model, joined with the Cox ocean model, is developed as an enhancement to the U.S. Navy's sea ice forecasting, PIPS, and is termed PIPS2.0. Generally, the modeled ice edge is consistent with the Navy-NOAA Joint Ice Center weekly analysis, and the modeled ice thickness distribution agrees with submarine sonar data in the central Arctic basin.

  8. Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 1. Model description and behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2012-06-01

    Antarctic ice shelves interact closely with the ocean cavities beneath them, with ice shelf geometry influencing ocean cavity circulation, and heat from the ocean driving changes in the ice shelves, as well as the grounded ice streams that feed them. We present a new coupled model of an ice stream-ice shelf-ocean system that is used to study this interaction. The model is capable of representing a moving grounding line and dynamically responding ocean circulation within the ice shelf cavity. Idealized experiments designed to investigate the response of the coupled system to instantaneous increases in ocean temperature show ice-ocean system responses on multiple timescales. Melt rates and ice shelf basal slopes near the grounding line adjust in 1-2 years, and downstream advection of the resulting ice shelf thinning takes place on decadal timescales. Retreat of the grounding line and adjustment of grounded ice takes place on a much longer timescale, and the system takes several centuries to reach a new steady state. During this slow retreat, and in the absence of either an upward-or downward-sloping bed or long-term trends in ocean heat content, the ice shelf and melt rates maintain a characteristic pattern relative to the grounding line.

  9. Damage Mechanics in the Community Ice Sheet Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitcomb, R.; Cathles, L. M. M., IV; Bassis, J. N.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Price, S. F.

    2016-12-01

    Half of the mass that floating ice shelves lose to the ocean comes from iceberg calving, which is a difficult process to simulate accurately. This is especially true in the large-scale ice dynamics models that couple changes in the cryosphere to climate projections. Damage mechanics provide a powerful technique with the potential to overcome this obstacle by describing how fractures in ice evolve over time. Here, we demonstrate the application of a damage model to ice shelves that predicts realistic geometries. We incorporated this solver into the Community Ice Sheet Model, a three dimensional ice sheet model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The damage mechanics formulation that we use comes from a first principles-based evolution law for the depth of basal and surface crevasses and depends on the large scale strain rate, stress state, and basal melt. We show that under idealized conditions it produces ice tongue lengths that match well with observations for a selection of natural ice tongues, including Erebus, Drygalski, and Pine Island in Antarctica, as well as Petermann in Greenland. We also apply the model to more generalized ideal ice shelf geometries and show that it produces realistic calving front positions. Although our results are preliminary, the damage mechanics model that we developed provides a promising first principles method for predicting ice shelf extent and how the calving margins of ice shelves respond to climate change.

  10. A toy model of sea ice growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thorndike, Alan S.

    1992-01-01

    My purpose here is to present a simplified treatment of the growth of sea ice. By ignoring many details, it is possible to obtain several results that help to clarify the ways in which the sea ice cover will respond to climate change. Three models are discussed. The first deals with the growth of sea ice during the cold season. The second describes the cycle of growth and melting for perennial ice. The third model extends the second to account for the possibility that the ice melts away entirely in the summer. In each case, the objective is to understand what physical processes are most important, what ice properties determine the ice behavior, and to which climate variables the system is most sensitive.

  11. LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; Price, Stephen; Hoffman, Matthew; Lipscomb, William H.; Fyke, Jeremy; Vargo, Lauren; Boghozian, Adrianna; Norman, Matthew; Worley, Patrick H.

    2017-06-01

    To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptops to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Ultimately, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.

  12. Modelling of Sea Ice Thermodynamics and Biogeochemistry during the N-ICE2015 Expedition in the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, A.; Duarte, P.; Mork Olsen, L.; Kauko, H.; Assmy, P.; Rösel, A.; Itkin, P.; Hudson, S. R.; Granskog, M. A.; Gerland, S.; Sundfjord, A.; Steen, H.; Jeffery, N.; Hunke, E. C.; Elliott, S.; Turner, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean over the last decades from a thick perennial multiyear ice to a first year ice have been well documented. These changes in the sea ice regime will affect feedback mechanisms between the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean. Here we evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE), a state of the art sea ice model, to predict sea ice physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks. We also identify the most problematic prognostic variables and what is necessary to improve their forecast. The availability of a complete data set of forcing collected during the Norwegian Young sea Ice (N-ICE-2015) expedition north of Svalbard opens the possibility to properly test CICE. Oceanographic, atmospheric, sea ice, snow, and biological data were collected above, on, and below the ice using R/V Lance as the base for the ice camps that were drifting south towards the Fram Strait. Over six months, four different drifts took place, from the Nansen Basin, through the marginal ice zone, to the open ocean. Obtained results from the model show a good performance regarding ice thickness, salinity and temperature. Nutrients and sea ice algae are however not modelled as accurately. We hypothesize that improvements in biogeochemical modeling may be achieved by complementing brine drainage with a diffusion parameterization and biogeochemical modeling with the introduction of an explicit formulation to forecast chlorophyll and regulate photosynthetic efficiency.

  13. Modeling the basal melting and marine ice accretion of the Amery Ice Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galton-Fenzi, B. K.; Hunter, J. R.; Coleman, R.; Marsland, S. J.; Warner, R. C.

    2012-09-01

    The basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) in East Antarctica is investigated using a numerical ocean model. The main improvements of this model over previous studies are the inclusion of frazil formation and dynamics, tides and the use of the latest estimate of the sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry. The model produces a net basal melt rate of 45.6 Gt year-1 (0.74 m ice year-1) which is in good agreement with reviewed observations. The melting at the base of the ice shelf is primarily due to interaction with High Salinity Shelf Water created from the surface sea-ice formation in winter. The temperature difference between the coldest waters created in the open ocean and the in situ freezing point of ocean water in contact with the deepest part of the AIS drives a melt rate that can exceed 30 m of ice year-1. The inclusion of frazil dynamics is shown to be important for both melting and marine ice accretion (refreezing). Frazil initially forms in the supercooled water layer adjacent to the base of the ice shelf. The net accretion of marine ice is 5.3 Gt year-1, comprised of 3.7 Gt year-1 of frazil accretion and 1.6 Gt year-1 of direct basal refreezing.

  14. A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

    2012-04-01

    The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a

  15. Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high resolution numerical sea ice model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Tsamados, Michel

    2017-04-01

    The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is due to the applied wind and ocean currents. The deformations of sea ice over ocean basin length scales have observable patterns; cracks and leads in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between observable deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses and force balance using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. In order to mimic laboratory experiments on the deformation of small cubes of sea ice we have developed an idealised square domain that tests the model response at spatial resolutions of up to 500m. We use the Elastic Anisotropic Plastic and Elastic Viscous Plastic rheologies, comparing their stability over varying resolutions and time scales. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealised winds in order to compare the confinement of wind stresses and internal sea ice stresses. We document the characteristic deformation patterns of convergent, divergent and rotating stress states.

  16. Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  17. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2011-09-01

    We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).

  18. LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.

    To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less

  19. LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

    DOE PAGES

    Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; ...

    2017-03-23

    To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less

  20. ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larour, Eric; Schiermeier, John E.; Seroussi, Helene; Morlinghem, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its

  1. Modeling Regolith Temperatures and Volatile Ice Processes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellon, M. T.

    2013-12-01

    Surface and subsurface temperatures are an important tool for exploring the distribution and dynamics of volatile ices on and within planetary regoliths. I will review thermal-analysis approaches and recent applications in the studies of volatile ice processes. Numerical models of regolith temperatures allow us to examine the response of ices to periodic and secular changes in heat sources such as insolation. Used in conjunction with spatially and temporally distributed remotely-sensed temperatures, numerical models can: 1) constrain the stability and dynamics of volatile ices; 2) define the partitioning between phases of ice, gas, liquid, and adsorbate; and 3) in some instances be used to probe the distribution of ice hidden from view beneath the surface. The vapor pressure of volatile ices (such as water, carbon dioxide, and methane) depends exponentially on temperature. Small changes in temperature can result in transitions between stable phases. Cyclic temperatures and the propagation of thermal waves into the subsurface can produce a strong hysteresis in the population and partitioning of various phases (such as between ice, vapor, and adsorbate) and result in bulk transport. Condensation of ice will also have a pronounced effect on the thermal properties of otherwise loose particulate regolith. Cementing grains at their contacts through ice deposition will increase the thermal conductivity, and may enhance the stability of additional ice. Likewise sintering of grains within a predominantly icy regolith will increase the thermal conductivity. Subsurface layers that result from ice redistribution can be discriminated by remote sensing when combined with numerical modeling. Applications of these techniques include modeling of seasonal carbon dioxide frosts on Mars, predicting and interpreting the subsurface ice distribution on Mars and in Antarctica, and estimating the current depth of ice-rich permafrost on Mars. Additionally, understanding cold trapping ices

  2. The ICE-6G_C (VM5a) Global Model of the GIA Process: Antarctica at High Spatial Resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Argus, D. F.

    2016-12-01

    The ICE-6G_C (VM5a) global model of the glacial isostatic adjustment process (Argus et al., 2014 GJI 198, 537-563; Peltier et al. , 2015, JGR 119, doi:10.1002/2014JB011176) is the latest model in the ICE-nG (VMx) sequence. The model continues to be unique in that it is the only model whose properties are made freely available at each iterative step in its development. This latest version, which embodies detailed descriptions of the Laurentide , Fennoscandian/Barents Sea, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets through the most recent glacial cycle, is a refinement based primarily upon the incorporation of the constraints being provided by GPS measurements of the vertical and horizontal motion of the crust as well as GRACE observations of the time dependent gravity field. The model has been shown to provide exceptionally accurate predictions of these space geodetic observations of the response to the most recent Late Quaternary glacial cycle. Particular attention has been paid to the Antarctic component as it is well known on the basis of analyses of the sedimentary stratigraphy off-shore and geomorphological characteristics of the continental shelf, that the Last Glacial Maximum state of the southern continent was one in which grounded ice extended out to the shelf break in most locations, including significant fractions of the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea embayments. In the latter regions especially, it is expected that grounded ice would have existed below sea level. In ICE-6G_C (VM5a) a grounding line tracking algorithm was employed (Stuhne and Peltier, 2015 JGR 120, 1841-1865) in order to describe the unloading of the solid surface by ice that was initially grounded below sea level, an apparently unique characteristic of this model. In the initially published version, in which the Sea Level Equation (SLE) was inverted on a basis of spherical harmonics truncated at degree and order 256, this led to "ringing" in the embayments when the Stokes coefficients of the model

  3. Scale Model Icing Research Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Canacci, Victor A.

    1997-01-01

    NASA Lewis Research Center's Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) is the world's largest refrigerated wind tunnel and one of only three icing wind tunnel facilities in the United States. The IRT was constructed in the 1940's and has been operated continually since it was built. In this facility, natural icing conditions are duplicated to test the effects of inflight icing on actual aircraft components as well as on models of airplanes and helicopters. IRT tests have been used successfully to reduce flight test hours for the certification of ice-detection instrumentation and ice protection systems. To ensure that the IRT will remain the world's premier icing facility well into the next century, Lewis is making some renovations and is planning others. These improvements include modernizing the control room, replacing the fan blades with new ones to increase the test section maximum velocity to 430 mph, installing new spray bars to increase the size and uniformity of the artificial icing cloud, and replacing the facility heat exchanger. Most of the improvements will have a first-order effect on the IRT's airflow quality. To help us understand these effects and evaluate potential improvements to the flow characteristics of the IRT, we built a modular 1/10th-scale aerodynamic model of the facility. This closed-loop scale-model pilot tunnel was fabricated onsite in the various shops of Lewis' Fabrication Support Division. The tunnel's rectangular sections are composed of acrylic walls supported by an aluminum angle framework. Its turning vanes are made of tubing machined to the contour of the IRT turning vanes. The fan leg of the tunnel, which transitions from rectangular to circular and back to rectangular cross sections, is fabricated of fiberglass sections. The contraction section of the tunnel is constructed from sheet aluminum. A 12-bladed aluminum fan is coupled to a turbine powered by high-pressure air capable of driving the maximum test section velocity to 550 ft

  4. Predictive model for ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces.

    PubMed

    Bahadur, Vaibhav; Mishchenko, Lidiya; Hatton, Benjamin; Taylor, J Ashley; Aizenberg, Joanna; Krupenkin, Tom

    2011-12-06

    The prevention and control of ice accumulation has important applications in aviation, building construction, and energy conversion devices. One area of active research concerns the use of superhydrophobic surfaces for preventing ice formation. The present work develops a physics-based modeling framework to predict ice formation on cooled superhydrophobic surfaces resulting from the impact of supercooled water droplets. This modeling approach analyzes the multiple phenomena influencing ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces through the development of submodels describing droplet impact dynamics, heat transfer, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. These models are then integrated together to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ice formation upon impact of liquid droplets at freezing conditions. The accuracy of this model is validated by its successful prediction of the experimental findings that demonstrate that superhydrophobic surfaces can fully prevent the freezing of impacting water droplets down to surface temperatures of as low as -20 to -25 °C. The model can be used to study the influence of surface morphology, surface chemistry, and fluid and thermal properties on dynamic ice formation and identify parameters critical to achieving icephobic surfaces. The framework of the present work is the first detailed modeling tool developed for the design and analysis of surfaces for various ice prevention/reduction strategies. © 2011 American Chemical Society

  5. The role of marine organic ice nuclei in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hummel, Matthias; Egill Kristjansson, Jon

    2016-04-01

    Ice particle concentrations are a key parameter for cold clouds, exerting a strong influence on cloud lifetime, precipitation release, and the cloud radiative effect. The availability of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and the temperature range in which they become activated determine the rate of ice formation in clouds (Hoose und Möhler, 2012). Particles from marine sources may contribute to ice formation in clouds, as they are abundant in the atmosphere and some of them have been found to be ice-nucleating active, but the extent of their influence on clouds is not known (Wilson et al., 2015). Wilson et al. (2015) collected marine INPs from the sea surface microlayer and analyzed their ice nucleation efficiency with a cold stage. Even in cirrus clouds, marine INPs may play a role, as their ice nucleation surface site density as a function of RHice at -40° C has been shown to be larger than for mineral dusts (ATD, kaolinite, and feldspar). In this study, we test the influence of marine organic aerosols on clouds via immersion freezing with the earth system model NorESM2 (Version 2 of the Norwegian Earth System Model; Bentsen et al., 2013). The model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2) and its atmospheric part (CAM5 Oslo) is based on the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.3). The parameterization of ice nucleation of marine INPs is expressed as an exponential function of temperature multiplied by the total organic content. Marine organic aerosols are part of the sea spray aerosol and are ejected during bubble bursting. INPs are associated with exudates or other macromolecules mainly from diatoms. Hence, their concentration is related to the sea salt aerosols in the model simulation. Our first results indicate that the high marine INP concentrations at around 850 hPa occur at high latitudes. These regions have low mineral dust concentrations, which might increase the influence of marine INP on clouds. However, they do not coincide with regions of

  6. Ice-sheet modelling accelerated by graphics cards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brædstrup, Christian Fredborg; Damsgaard, Anders; Egholm, David Lundbek

    2014-11-01

    Studies of glaciers and ice sheets have increased the demand for high performance numerical ice flow models over the past decades. When exploring the highly non-linear dynamics of fast flowing glaciers and ice streams, or when coupling multiple flow processes for ice, water, and sediment, researchers are often forced to use super-computing clusters. As an alternative to conventional high-performance computing hardware, the Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) is capable of massively parallel computing while retaining a compact design and low cost. In this study, we present a strategy for accelerating a higher-order ice flow model using a GPU. By applying the newest GPU hardware, we achieve up to 180× speedup compared to a similar but serial CPU implementation. Our results suggest that GPU acceleration is a competitive option for ice-flow modelling when compared to CPU-optimised algorithms parallelised by the OpenMP or Message Passing Interface (MPI) protocols.

  7. A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Kelin; North, Gerald R.; Stevens, Mark J.

    A NetCDF version of the two-dimensional energy balance model based on the full multigrid method in Fortran is introduced for both pedagogical and research purposes. Based on the land-sea-ice distribution, orbital elements, greenhouse gases concentration, and albedo, the code calculates the global seasonal surface temperature. A step-by-step guide with examples is provided for practice.

  8. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2010-08-01

    We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams naturally emerge through this approach and can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2010) and a physically motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is validated within the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP) and is used for a dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions in the second part of this paper (Martin et al., 2010).

  9. SPH Modelling of Sea-ice Pack Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staroszczyk, Ryszard

    2017-12-01

    The paper is concerned with the problem of sea-ice pack motion and deformation under the action of wind and water currents. Differential equations describing the dynamics of ice, with its very distinct mateFfigrial responses in converging and diverging flows, express the mass and linear momentum balances on the horizontal plane (the free surface of the ocean). These equations are solved by the fully Lagrangian method of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). Assuming that the ice behaviour can be approximated by a non-linearly viscous rheology, the proposed SPH model has been used to simulate the evolution of a sea-ice pack driven by wind drag stresses. The results of numerical simulations illustrate the evolution of an ice pack, including variations in ice thickness and ice area fraction in space and time. The effects of different initial ice pack configurations and of different conditions assumed at the coast-ice interface are examined. In particular, the SPH model is applied to a pack flow driven by a vortex wind to demonstrate how well the Lagrangian formulation can capture large deformations and displacements of sea ice.

  10. Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montiel, F.; Squire, V. A.

    2017-10-01

    A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ.

  11. Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cullather, Richard I.; Keppenne, Christian L.; Marshak, Jelena; Pawson, Steven; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Vernieres, Guillaume; Zhao, Bin

    2015-01-01

    The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

  12. Calibration of sea ice dynamic parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massonnet, F.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Counillon, F.

    2014-07-01

    The choice of parameter values is crucial in the course of sea ice model development, since parameters largely affect the modeled mean sea ice state. Manual tuning of parameters will soon become impractical, as sea ice models will likely include more parameters to calibrate, leading to an exponential increase of the number of possible combinations to test. Objective and automatic methods for parameter calibration are thus progressively called on to replace the traditional heuristic, "trial-and-error" recipes. Here a method for calibration of parameters based on the ensemble Kalman filter is implemented, tested and validated in the ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM3. Three dynamic parameters are calibrated: the ice strength parameter P*, the ocean-sea ice drag parameter Cw, and the atmosphere-sea ice drag parameter Ca. In twin, perfect-model experiments, the default parameter values are retrieved within 1 year of simulation. Using 2007-2012 real sea ice drift data, the calibration of the ice strength parameter P* and the oceanic drag parameter Cw improves clearly the Arctic sea ice drift properties. It is found that the estimation of the atmospheric drag Ca is not necessary if P* and Cw are already estimated. The large reduction in the sea ice speed bias with calibrated parameters comes with a slight overestimation of the winter sea ice areal export through Fram Strait and a slight improvement in the sea ice thickness distribution. Overall, the estimation of parameters with the ensemble Kalman filter represents an encouraging alternative to manual tuning for ocean-sea ice models.

  13. Responses of Mixed-Phase Cloud Condensates and Cloud Radiative Effects to Ice Nucleating Particle Concentrations in NCAR CAM5 and DOE ACME Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Shi, Y.; Wu, M.; Zhang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Mixed-phase clouds frequently observed in the Arctic and mid-latitude storm tracks have the substantial impacts on the surface energy budget, precipitation and climate. In this study, we first implement the two empirical parameterizations (Niemand et al. 2012 and DeMott et al. 2015) of heterogeneous ice nucleation for mixed-phase clouds in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) and DOE Accelerated Climate Model for Energy Version 1 (ACME1). Model simulated ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations based on Niemand et al. and DeMott et al. are compared with those from the default ice nucleation parameterization based on the classical nucleation theory (CNT) in CAM5 and ACME, and with in situ observations. Significantly higher INP concentrations (by up to a factor of 5) are simulated from Niemand et al. than DeMott et al. and CNT especially over the dust source regions in both CAM5 and ACME. Interestingly the ACME model simulates higher INP concentrations than CAM5, especially in the Polar regions. This is also the case when we nudge the two models' winds and temperature towards the same reanalysis, indicating more efficient transport of aerosols (dust) to the Polar regions in ACME. Next, we examine the responses of model simulated cloud liquid water and ice water contents to different INP concentrations from three ice nucleation parameterizations (Niemand et al., DeMott et al., and CNT) in CAM5 and ACME. Changes in liquid water path (LWP) reach as much as 20% in the Arctic regions in ACME between the three parameterizations while the LWP changes are smaller and limited in the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitudes in CAM5. Finally, the impacts on cloud radiative forcing and dust indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds are quantified with the three ice nucleation parameterizations in CAM5 and ACME.

  14. The future of the Devon Ice cap: results from climate and ice dynamics modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mottram, Ruth; Rodehacke, Christian; Boberg, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    The Devon Ice Cap is an example of a relatively well monitored small ice cap in the Canadian Arctic. Close to Greenland, it shows a similar surface mass balance signal to glaciers in western Greenland. Here we use high resolution (5km) simulations from HIRHAM5 to drive the PISM glacier model in order to model the present day and future prospects of this small Arctic ice cap. Observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada is used to evaluate the surface mass balance (SMB) data output from the HIRHAM5 model for simulations forced with the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data and the historical emissions scenario run by the EC-Earth global climate model. The RCP8.5 scenario simulated by EC-Earth is also downscaled by HIRHAM5 and this output is used to force the PISM model to simulate the likely future evolution of the Devon Ice Cap under a warming climate. We find that the Devon Ice Cap is likely to continue its present day retreat, though in the future increased precipitation partly offsets the enhanced melt rates caused by climate change.

  15. Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

  16. Validation and Interpretation of a new sea ice GlobIce dataset using buoys and the CICE sea ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flocco, D.; Laxon, S. W.; Feltham, D. L.; Haas, C.

    2012-04-01

    The GlobIce project has provided high resolution sea ice product datasets over the Arctic derived from SAR data in the ESA archive. The products are validated sea ice motion, deformation and fluxes through straits. GlobIce sea ice velocities, deformation data and sea ice concentration have been validated using buoy data provided by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). Over 95% of the GlobIce and buoy data analysed fell within 5 km of each other. The GlobIce Eulerian image pair product showed a high correlation with buoy data. The sea ice concentration product was compared to SSM/I data. An evaluation of the validity of the GlobICE data will be presented in this work. GlobICE sea ice velocity and deformation were compared with runs of the CICE sea ice model: in particular the mass fluxes through the straits were used to investigate the correlation between the winter behaviour of sea ice and the sea ice state in the following summer.

  17. A basal stress parameterization for modeling landfast ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemieux, Jean-François; Tremblay, L. Bruno; Dupont, Frédéric; Plante, Mathieu; Smith, Gregory C.; Dumont, Dany

    2015-04-01

    Current large-scale sea ice models represent very crudely or are unable to simulate the formation, maintenance and decay of coastal landfast ice. We present a simple landfast ice parameterization representing the effect of grounded ice keels. This parameterization is based on bathymetry data and the mean ice thickness in a grid cell. It is easy to implement and can be used for two-thickness and multithickness category models. Two free parameters are used to determine the critical thickness required for large ice keels to reach the bottom and to calculate the basal stress associated with the weight of the ridge above hydrostatic balance. A sensitivity study was conducted and demonstrates that the parameter associated with the critical thickness has the largest influence on the simulated landfast ice area. A 6 year (2001-2007) simulation with a 20 km resolution sea ice model was performed. The simulated landfast ice areas for regions off the coast of Siberia and for the Beaufort Sea were calculated and compared with data from the National Ice Center. With optimal parameters, the basal stress parameterization leads to a slightly shorter landfast ice season but overall provides a realistic seasonal cycle of the landfast ice area in the East Siberian, Laptev and Beaufort Seas. However, in the Kara Sea, where ice arches between islands are key to the stability of the landfast ice, the parameterization consistently leads to an underestimation of the landfast area.

  18. Ice Particle Transport Analysis With Phase Change for the E(sup 3) Turbofan Engine Using LEWICE3D Version 3.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bidwell, Colin, S.

    2012-01-01

    Ice Particle trajectory calculations with phase change were made for the Energy Efficient Engine (E(sup 3)) using the LEWICE3D Version 3.2 software. The particle trajectory computations were performed using the new Glenn Ice Particle Phase Change Model which has been incorporated into the LEWICE3D Version 3.2 software. The E(sup 3) was developed by NASA and GE in the early 1980 s as a technology demonstrator and is representative of a modern high bypass turbofan engine. The E(sup 3) flow field was calculated using the NASA Glenn ADPAC turbomachinery flow solver. Computations were performed for the low pressure compressor of the E(sup 3) for a Mach 0.8 cruise condition at 11,887 m assuming a standard warm day for ice particle sizes of 5, 20, and 100 microns and a free stream particle concentration of 0.3 g/cu m. The impingement efficiency results showed that as particle size increased average impingement efficiencies and scoop factors increased for the various components. The particle analysis also showed that the amount of mass entering the inner core decreased with increased particle size because the larger particles were less able to negotiate the turn into the inner core due to particle inertia. The particle phase change analysis results showed that the larger particles warmed less as they were transported through the low pressure compressor. Only the smallest 5 micron particles were warmed enough to produce melting and the amount of melting was relatively small with a maximum average melting fraction of 0.836. The results also showed an appreciable amount of particle sublimation and evaporation for the 5 micron particles entering the engine core (22 percent).

  19. Ice Accretion Roughness Measurements and Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McClain, Stephen T.; Vargas, Mario; Tsao, Jen-Ching; Broeren, Andy P.; Lee, Sam

    2017-01-01

    Roughness on aircraft ice accretions is very important to the overall ice accretion process and to the resulting degradation in aircraft aerodynamic performance. Roughness enhances the local convection leading to more rapid ice accumulation rates, and roughness generates local flow perturbations that lead to higher skin friction. This paper presents 1) a review of the developments in ice shape three-dimensional laser scanning developed at NASA Glenn, 2) a review of the approach of McClain and Kreeger employed to characterize ice roughness evolution on an airfoil surface, and 3) a review of the experimental efforts that have been performed over the last five years to characterize, scale, and model ice roughness evolution physics.

  20. Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils (SmaggIce)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammond, Brandy M.

    2004-01-01

    Many of the troubles associated with problem solving are alleviated when there is a model that can be used to represent the problem. Through the Advanced Graphics and Visualization (G-VIS) Laboratory and other facilities located within the Research Analysis Center, the Computer Services Division (CSD) is able to develop and maintain programs and software that allow for the modeling of various situations. For example, the Icing Research Branch is devoted to investigating the effect of ice that forms on the wings and other airfoils of airplanes while in flight. While running tests that physically generate ice and wind on airfoils within the laboratories and wind tunnels on site are done, it would be beneficial if most of the preliminary work could be done outside of the lab. Therefore, individuals from within CSD have collaborated with Icing Research in order to create SmaggIce. This software allows users to create ice patterns on clean airfoils or open files containing a variety of icing situations, manipulate and measure these forms, generate, divide, and merge grids around these elements for more explicit analysis, and specify and rediscretize subcurves. With the projected completion date of Summer 2005, the majority of the focus of the Smagglce team is user-functionality and error handling. My primary responsibility is to test the Graphical User Interface (GUI) in SmaggIce in order to ensure the usability and verify the expected results of the events (buttons, menus, etc.) within the program. However, there is no standardized, systematic way in which to test all the possible combinations or permutations of events, not to mention unsolicited events such as errors. Moreover, scripting tests, if not done properly and with a view towards inevitable revision, can result in more apparent errors within the software and in effect become useless whenever the developers of the program make a slight change in the way a specific process is executed. My task therefore

  1. Planetary Ice-Oceans: Numerical Modeling Study of Ice-Shell Growth in Convecting Two-Phase Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allu Peddinti, Divya; McNamara, Allen

    2017-04-01

    Several icy bodies in the Solar system such as the icy moons Europa and Enceladus exhibit signs of subsurface oceans underneath an ice-shell. For Europa, the geologically young surface, the presence of surface features and the aligned surface chemistry pose interesting questions about formation of the ice-shell and its interaction with the ocean below. This also ties in with its astrobiological potential and implications for similar ice-ocean systems elsewhere in the cosmos. The overall thickness of the H2O layer on Europa is estimated to be 100-150 km while the thickness of the ice-shell is debated. Additionally, Europa is subject to tidal heating due to interaction with Jupiter's immense gravity field. It is of interest to understand how the ice-shell thickness varies in the presence of tidal internal heating and the localization of heating in different regions of the ice-shell. Thus this study aims to determine the effect of tidal internal heating on the growth rate of the ice-shell over time. We perform geodynamic modeling of the ice-ocean system in order to understand how the ice-shell thickness changes with time. The convection code employs the ice Ih-water phase diagram in order to model the two-phase convecting ice-ocean system. All the models begin from an initial warm thick ocean that cools from the top. The numerical experiments analyze three cases: case 1 with no tidal internal heating in the system, case 2 with constant tidal internal heating in the ice and case 3 with viscosity-dependent tidal internal heating in the ice. We track the ice-shell thickness as a function of time as the system cools. Modeling results so far have identified that the shell growth rate changes substantially at a point in time that coincides with a change in the planform of ice-convection cells. Additionally, the velocity vs depth plots indicate a shift from a conduction dominant to a convection dominant ice regime. We compare the three different cases to provide a

  2. A comparison of selected models for estimating cable icing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McComber, Pierre; Druez, Jacques; Laflamme, Jean

    In many cold climate countries, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor transmission line icing. Indeed, by knowing in advance of localized danger for icing overloads, electric utilities can take measures in time to prevent generalized failure of the power transmission network. Recently in Canada, a study was made to compare the estimation of a few icing models working from meteorological data in estimating ice loads for freezing rain events. The models tested were using only standard meteorological parameters, i.e. wind speed and direction, temperature and precipitation rate. This study has shown that standard meteorological parameters can only achieve very limited accuracy, especially for longer icing events. However, with the help of an additional instrument monitoring the icing rate intensity, a significant improvement in model prediction might be achieved. The icing rate meter (IRM) which counts icing and de-icing cycles per unit time on a standard probe can be used to estimate the icing intensity. A cable icing estimation is then made by taking into consideration the accretion size, temperature, wind speed and direction, and precipitation rate. In this paper, a comparison is made between the predictions of two previously tested models (one obtained and the other reconstructed from their description in the public literature) and of a model based on the icing rate meter readings. The models are tested against nineteen events recorded on an icing test line at Mt. Valin, Canada, during the winter season 1991-1992. These events are mostly rime resulting from in-cloud icing. However, freezing rain and wet snow events were also recorded. Results indicate that a significant improvement in the estimation is attained by using the icing rate meter data together with the other standard meteorological parameters.

  3. Radiative transfer model of snow for bare ice regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanikawa, T.; Aoki, T.; Niwano, M.; Hosaka, M.; Shimada, R.; Hori, M.; Yamaguchi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling a radiative transfer (RT) for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems is of fundamental importance for remote sensing applications to monitor snow and bare ice regions in the Greenland ice sheet and for accurate climate change predictions by regional and global climate models. Recently, the RT model for atmosphere-snow system was implemented for our regional and global climate models. However, the bare ice region where recently it has been expanded on the Greenland ice sheet due to the global warming, has not been implemented for these models, implying that this region leads miscalculations in these climate models. Thus, the RT model of snow for bare ice regions is needed for accurate climate change predictions. We developed the RT model for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems, and conducted a sensitivity analysis of the RT model to know the effect of snow, bare ice and geometry parameters on the spectral radiant quantities. The RT model considers snow and bare-ice inherent optical properties (IOPs), including snow grain size, air bubble size and its concentration and bare ice thickness. The conventional light scattering theory, Mie theory, was used for IOP calculations. Monte Carlo method was used for the multiple scattering. The sensitivity analyses showed that spectral albedo for the bare ice increased with increasing the concentration of the air bubble in the bare ice for visible wavelengths because the air bubble is scatterer with no absorption. For near infrared wavelengths, spectral albedo has no dependence on the air bubble due to the strong light absorption by ice. When increasing solar zenith angle, the spectral albedo were increased for all wavelengths. This is the similar trend with spectral snow albedo. Cloud cover influenced the bare ice spectral albedo by covering direct radiation into diffuse radiation. The purely diffuse radiation has an effective solar zenith angle near 50°. Converting direct into diffuse radiation reduces the

  4. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  5. Level-Ice Melt Ponds in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, CICE

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-12-06

    terms obtained using the Bitz and Lips- comb (1999) thermodynamic model. The thickness distribution ( Thorndike et al., 1975) employs 5 ice thickness...D.L., 2004. A model of melt pond evolution on sea ice. J. Geophys. Res. 109, C12007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002361. Thorndike , A.S., Rothrock

  6. Exploring noctilucent cloud variability using the nudged and extended version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuilman, Maartje; Karlsson, Bodil; Benze, Susanne; Megner, Linda

    2017-11-01

    Ice particles in the summer mesosphere - such as those connected to noctilucent clouds and polar mesospheric summer echoes - have since their discovery contributed to the uncovering of atmospheric processes on various scales ranging from interactions on molecular levels to global scale circulation patterns. While there are numerous model studies on mesospheric ice microphysics and how the clouds relate to the background atmosphere, there are at this point few studies using comprehensive global climate models to investigate observed variability and climatology of noctilucent clouds. In this study it is explored to what extent the large-scale inter-annual characteristics of noctilucent clouds are captured in a 30-year run - extending from 1979 to 2009 - of the nudged and extended version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM30). To construct and investigate zonal mean inter-seasonal variability in noctilucent cloud occurrence frequency and ice mass density in both hemispheres, a simple cloud model is applied in which it is assumed that the ice content is solely controlled by the local temperature and water vapor volume mixing ratio. The model results are compared to satellite observations, each having an instrument-specific sensitivity when it comes to detecting noctilucent clouds. It is found that the model is able to capture the onset dates of the NLC seasons in both hemispheres as well as the hemispheric differences in NLCs, such as weaker NLCs in the SH than in the NH and differences in cloud height. We conclude that the observed cloud climatology and zonal mean variability are well captured by the model.

  7. Determination of Ice Cloud Models Using MODIS and MISR Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xie, Yu; Yang, Ping; Kattawar, George W.; Minnis, Patrick; Hu, Yongxiang; Wu, Dong L.

    2012-01-01

    Representation of ice clouds in radiative transfer simulations is subject to uncertainties associated with the shapes and sizes of ice crystals within cirrus clouds. In this study, we examined several ice cloud models consisting of smooth, roughened, homogeneous and inhomogeneous hexagonal ice crystals with various aspect ratios. The sensitivity of the bulk scattering properties and solar reflectances of cirrus clouds to specific ice cloud models is investigated using the improved geometric optics method (IGOM) and the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model. The ice crystal habit fractions in the ice cloud model may significantly affect the simulations of cloud reflectances. A new algorithm was developed to help determine an appropriate ice cloud model for application to the satellite-based retrieval of ice cloud properties. The ice cloud particle size retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, collocated with Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) observations, is used to infer the optical thicknesses of ice clouds for nine MISR viewing angles. The relative differences between view-dependent cloud optical thickness and the averaged value over the nine MISR viewing angles can vary from -0.5 to 0.5 and are used to evaluate the ice cloud models. In the case for 2 July 2009, the ice cloud model with mixed ice crystal habits is the best fit to the observations (the root mean square (RMS) error of cloud optical thickness reaches 0.365). This ice cloud model also produces consistent cloud property retrievals for the nine MISR viewing configurations within the measurement uncertainties.

  8. A Tale of Two Forcings: Present-Day Coupled Antarctic Ice-sheet/Southern Ocean dynamics using the POPSICLES model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, Daniel; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Cornford, Stephen; Price, Stephen; Ng, Esmond; Collins, William

    2015-04-01

    We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010 resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a 'normal-year' climatology and the CORE v. 2 interannual forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008). Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and adaptive ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal melting trends from several Antarctic regions, along with the response of the ice shelves and consequent dynamics of the grounded ice sheet. POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).

  9. Modelling ice microphysics of mixed-phase clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahola, J.; Raatikainen, T.; Tonttila, J.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.

    2017-12-01

    The low-level Arctic mixed-phase clouds have a significant role for the Arctic climate due to their ability to absorb and reflect radiation. Since the climate change is amplified in polar areas, it is vital to apprehend the mixed-phase cloud processes. From a modelling point of view, this requires a high spatiotemporal resolution to capture turbulence and the relevant microphysical processes, which has shown to be difficult.In order to solve this problem about modelling mixed-phase clouds, a new ice microphysics description has been developed. The recently published large-eddy simulation cloud model UCLALES-SALSA offers a good base for a feasible solution (Tonttila et al., Geosci. Mod. Dev., 10:169-188, 2017). The model includes aerosol-cloud interactions described with a sectional SALSA module (Kokkola et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 2469-2483, 2008), which represents a good compromise between detail and computational expense.Newly, the SALSA module has been upgraded to include also ice microphysics. The dynamical part of the model is based on well-known UCLA-LES model (Stevens et al., J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3963-3984, 1999) which can be used to study cloud dynamics on a fine grid.The microphysical description of ice is sectional and the included processes consist of formation, growth and removal of ice and snow particles. Ice cloud particles are formed by parameterized homo- or heterogeneous nucleation. The growth mechanisms of ice particles and snow include coagulation and condensation of water vapor. Autoconversion from cloud ice particles to snow is parameterized. The removal of ice particles and snow happens by sedimentation and melting.The implementation of ice microphysics is tested by initializing the cloud simulation with atmospheric observations from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC). The results are compared to the model results shown in the paper of Ovchinnikov et al. (J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 6, 223-248, 2014) and they show a good

  10. Slush Fund: Modeling the Multiphase Physics of Oceanic Ices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    The prevalence of ice interacting with an ocean, both on Earth and throughout the solar system, and its crucial role as the mediator of exchange between the hydrosphere below and atmosphere above, have made quantifying the thermodynamic, chemical, and physical properties of the ice highly desirable. While direct observations of these quantities exist, their scarcity increases with the difficulty of obtainment; the basal surfaces of terrestrial ice shelves remain largely unexplored and the icy interiors of moons like Europa and Enceladus have never been directly observed. Our understanding of these entities thus relies on numerical simulation, and the efficacy of their incorporation into larger systems models is dependent on the accuracy of these initial simulations. One characteristic of seawater, likely shared by the oceans of icy moons, is that it is a solution. As such, when it is frozen a majority of the solute is rejected from the forming ice, concentrating in interstitial pockets and channels, producing a two-component reactive porous media known as a mushy layer. The multiphase nature of this layer affects the evolution and dynamics of the overlying ice mass. Additionally ice can form in the water column and accrete onto the basal surface of these ice masses via buoyancy driven sedimentation as frazil or platelet ice. Numerical models hoping to accurately represent ice-ocean interactions should include the multiphase behavior of these two phenomena. While models of sea ice have begun to incorporate multiphase physics into their capabilities, no models of ice shelves/shells explicitly account for the two-phase behavior of the ice-ocean interface. Here we present a 1D multiphase model of floating oceanic ice that includes parameterizations of both density driven advection within the `mushy layer' and buoyancy driven sedimentation. The model is validated against contemporary sea ice models and observational data. Environmental stresses such as supercooling and

  11. Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone

    PubMed Central

    Squire, V. A.

    2017-01-01

    A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ. PMID:29118659

  12. Modelling wave-induced sea ice break-up in the marginal ice zone.

    PubMed

    Montiel, F; Squire, V A

    2017-10-01

    A model of ice floe break-up under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave break-up events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a break-up criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i) solves the wave-scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii) computes the stress field in all the floes, (iii) fractures the floes satisfying the break-up criterion, and (iv) generates an updated FSD, initializing the geometry for the next iteration of the loop. The FSD after 50 break-up events is unimodal and near normal, or bimodal, suggesting waves alone do not govern the power law observed in some field studies. Multiple scattering is found to enhance break-up for long waves and thin ice, but to reduce break-up for short waves and thick ice. A break-up front marches forward in the latter regime, as wave-induced fracture weakens the ice cover, allowing waves to travel deeper into the MIZ.

  13. Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Mark; Proshuntinsky, Andrew; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nikolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw; hide

    2012-01-01

    Six Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project model simulations are compared with estimates of sea ice thickness derived from pan-Arctic satellite freeboard measurements (2004-2008); airborne electromagnetic measurements (2001-2009); ice draft data from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea, and the Beaufort Sea (1992-2008) and from submarines (1975-2000); and drill hole data from the Arctic basin, Laptev, and East Siberian marginal seas (1982-1986) and coastal stations (1998-2009). Despite an assessment of six models that differ in numerical methods, resolution, domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, the models generally overestimate the thickness of measured ice thinner than approximately 2 mand underestimate the thickness of ice measured thicker than about approximately 2m. In the regions of flat immobile landfast ice (shallow Siberian Seas with depths less than 25-30 m), the models generally overestimate both the total observed sea ice thickness and rates of September and October ice growth from observations by more than 4 times and more than one standard deviation, respectively. The models do not reproduce conditions of fast ice formation and growth. Instead, the modeled fast ice is replaced with pack ice which drifts, generating ridges of increasing ice thickness, in addition to thermodynamic ice growth. Considering all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observations are from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System models.

  14. User's manual for the NASA Lewis ice accretion/heat transfer prediction code with electrothermal deicer input

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Masiulaniec, Konstanty C.; Wright, William B.

    1994-01-01

    A version of LEWICE has been developed that incorporates a recently developed electrothermal deicer code, developed at the University of Toledo by William B. Wright. This was accomplished, in essence, by replacing a subroutine in LEWICE, called EBAL, which balanced the energies at the ice surface, with a subroutine called UTICE. UTICE performs this same energy balance, as well as handles all the time-timperature transients below the ice surface, for all of the layers of a composite blade as well as the ice layer itself. This new addition is set up in such a fashion that a user may specify any number of heaters, any heater chordwise length, and any heater gap desired. The heaters may be fired in unison, or they may be cycled with periods independent of each other. The heater intensity may also be varied. In addition, the user may specify any number of layers and thicknesses depthwise into the blade. Thus, the new addition has maximum flexibility in modeling virtually any electrothermal deicer installed into any airfoil. It should be noted that the model simulates both shedding and runback. With the runback capability, it can simulate the anti-icing mode of heater performance, as well as detect icing downstream of the heaters due to runback in unprotected portions of the airfoil. This version of LEWICE can be run in three modes. In mode 1, no conduction heat transfer is modeled (which would be equivalent to the original version of LEWICE). In mode 2, all heat transfer is considered due to conduction but no heaters are firing. In mode 3, conduction heat transfer where the heaters are engaged is modeled, with subsequent ice shedding. When run in the first mode, there is virtually identical agreement with the original version of LEWICE in the prediction of accreted ice shapes. The code may be run in the second mode to determine the effects of conduction on the ice accretion process.

  15. Geodynamic Modeling of Planetary Ice-Oceans: Evolution of Ice-Shell Thickness in Convecting Two-Phase Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allu Peddinti, D.; McNamara, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Along with the newly unveiled icy surface of Pluto, several icy planetary bodies show indications of an active surface perhaps underlain by liquid oceans of some size. This augments the interest to explore the evolution of an ice-ocean system and its surface implications. The geologically young surface of the Jovian moon Europa lends much speculation to variations in ice-shell thickness over time. Along with the observed surface features, it suggests the possibility of episodic convection and conduction within the ice-shell as it evolved. What factors would control the growth of the ice-shell as it forms? If and how would those factors determine the thickness of the ice-shell and consequently the heat transfer? Would parameters such as tidal heating or initial temperature affect how the ice-shell grows and to what significance? We perform numerical experiments using geodynamical models of the two-phase ice-water system to study the evolution of planetary ice-oceans such as that of Europa. The models evolve self-consistently from an initial liquid ocean as it cools with time. The effects of presence, absence and magnitude of tidal heating on ice-shell thickness are studied in different models. The vigor of convection changes as the ice-shell continues to thicken. Initial modeling results track changes in the growth rate of the ice-shell as the vigor of the convection changes. The magnitude and temporal location of the rate change varies with different properties of tidal heating and values of initial temperature. A comparative study of models is presented to demonstrate how as the ice-shell is forming, its growth rate and convection are affected by processes such as tidal heating.

  16. A transient fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulation of the last glacial inception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lofverstrom, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.; Brady, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    The last glacial inception occurred around 115 ka, following a relative minimum in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. It is believed that small and spatially separated ice caps initially formed in the high elevation regions of northern Canada, Scandinavia, and along the Siberian Arctic coast. These ice caps subsequently migrated down in the valleys where they coalesced and formed the initial seeds of the large coherent ice masses that covered the northern parts of the North American and Eurasian continents over most of the last glacial cycle. Sea level records show that the initial growth period lasted for about 10 kyrs, and the resulting ice sheets may have lowered the global sea level by as much as 30 to 50 meters. Here we examine the transient climate system evolution over the period between 118 and 110 ka, using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). This model features a two-way coupled high-resolution (4x4 km) ice-sheet component (Community Ice Sheet model, version 2; CISM2) that simulates ice sheets as an interactive component of the climate system. We impose a transient forcing protocol where the greenhouse gas concentrations and the orbital parameters follow the nominal year in the simulation; the model topography is also dynamically evolving in order to reflect changes in ice elevation throughout the simulation. The analysis focuses on how the climate system evolves over this time interval, with a special focus on glacial inception in the high-latitude continents. Results will highlight how the evolving ice sheets compare to data and previous model based reconstructions.

  17. Retrieval of ice cloud properties from Himawari-8 satellite measurements by Voronoi ice particle model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letu, H.; Nagao, T. M.; Nakajima, T. Y.; Ishimoto, H.; Riedi, J.; Shang, H.

    2017-12-01

    Ice cloud property product from satellite measurements is applicable in climate change study, numerical weather prediction, as well as atmospheric study. Ishimoto et al., (2010) and Letu et al., (2016) developed a single scattering property of the highly irregular ice particle model, called the Voronoi model for developing ice cloud product of the GCOM-C satellite program. It is investigated that Voronoi model has a good performance on retrieval of the ice cloud properties by comparing it with other well-known scattering models. Cloud property algorithm (Nakajima et al., 1995, Ishida and Nakajima., 2009, Ishimoto et al., 2009, Letu et al., 2012, 2014, 2016) of the GCOM-C satellite program is improved to produce the Himawari-8/AHI cloud products based on the variation of the solar zenith angle. Himawari-8 is the new-generational geostationary meteorological satellite, which is successfully launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) on 7 October 2014. In this study, ice cloud optical and microphysical properties are simulated from RSTAR radiative transfer code by using various model. Scattering property of the Voronoi model is investigated for developing the AHI ice cloud products. Furthermore, optical and microphysical properties of the ice clouds are retrieved from Himawari-8/AHI satellite measurements. Finally, retrieval results from Himawari-8/AHI are compared to MODIS-C6 cloud property products for validation of the AHI cloud products.

  18. Development of Two-Moment Cloud Microphysics for Liquid and Ice Within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barahona, Donifan; Molod, Andrea M.; Bacmeister, Julio; Nenes, Athanasios; Gettelman, Andrew; Morrison, Hugh; Phillips, Vaughan,; Eichmann, Andrew F.

    2013-01-01

    This work presents the development of a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme within the version 5 of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5). The scheme includes the implementation of a comprehensive stratiform microphysics module, a new cloud coverage scheme that allows ice supersaturation and a new microphysics module embedded within the moist convection parameterization of GEOS-5. Comprehensive physically-based descriptions of ice nucleation, including homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and liquid droplet activation are implemented to describe the formation of cloud particles in stratiform clouds and convective cumulus. The effect of preexisting ice crystals on the formation of cirrus clouds is also accounted for. A new parameterization of the subgrid scale vertical velocity distribution accounting for turbulence and gravity wave motion is developed. The implementation of the new microphysics significantly improves the representation of liquid water and ice in GEOS-5. Evaluation of the model shows agreement of the simulated droplet and ice crystal effective and volumetric radius with satellite retrievals and in situ observations. The simulated global distribution of supersaturation is also in agreement with observations. It was found that when using the new microphysics the fraction of condensate that remains as liquid follows a sigmoidal increase with temperature which differs from the linear increase assumed in most models and is in better agreement with available observations. The performance of the new microphysics in reproducing the observed total cloud fraction, longwave and shortwave cloud forcing, and total precipitation is similar to the operational version of GEOS-5 and in agreement with satellite retrievals. However the new microphysics tends to underestimate the coverage of persistent low level stratocumulus. Sensitivity studies showed that the simulated cloud properties are robust to moderate variation in cloud microphysical parameters

  19. Ice Floe Breaking in Contemporary Third Generation Operational Wave Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sévigny, C.; Baudry, J.; Gauthier, J. C.; Dumont, D.

    2016-02-01

    The dynamical zone observed at the edge of the consolidated ice area where are found the wave-fractured floes (i.e. marginal ice zone or MIZ) has become an important topic in ocean modeling. As both operational and climate ocean models now seek to reproduce the complex atmosphere-ice-ocean system with realistic coupling processes, many theoretical and numerical studies have focused on understanding and modeling this zone. Few attempts have been made to embed wave-ice interactions specific to the MIZ within a two-dimensional model, giving the possibility to calculate both the attenuation of surface waves by sea ice and the concomitant breaking of the sea ice-cover into smaller floes. One of the first challenges consists in improving the parameterization of wave-ice dynamics in contemporary third generation operational wave models. A simple waves-in-ice model (WIM) similar to the one proposed by Williams et al. (2013a,b) was implemented in WAVEWATCH III. This WIM considers ice floes as floating elastic plates and predicts the dimensionless attenuation coefficient by the use of a lookup-table-based, wave scattering scheme. As in Dumont et al. (2011), the different frequencies are treated individually and floe breaking occurs for a particular frequency when the expected wave amplitude exceeds the allowed strain amplitude, which considers ice floes properties and wavelength in ice field. The model is here further refined and tested in idealized two-dimensional cases, giving preliminary results of the performance and sensitivity of the parameterization to initial wave and ice conditions. The effects of the wave-ice coupling over the incident wave spectrum are analyzed as well as the resulting floe size distribution. The model gives prognostic values of the lateral extent of the marginal ice zone with maximum ice floe diameter that progressively increases with distance from the ice edge.

  20. OBLIMAP 2.0: a fast climate model-ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2016-11-01

    This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM) and an ice sheet model (ISM) in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfaces of the GCM and ISM grid differ, both grids may be irregularly spaced and the ratio of the grids is allowed to differ largely. OBLIMAP's stand-alone version is able to map data sets that differ in various aspects on the same ISM grid. Each grid may either coincide with the surface of a sphere, an ellipsoid or a flat plane, while the grid types might differ. Re-projection of, for example, ISM data sets is also facilitated. This is demonstrated by relevant applications concerning the major ice caps. As the stand-alone version also applies to the reverse mapping direction, it can be used as an offline coupler. Furthermore, OBLIMAP 2.0 is an embeddable GCM-ISM coupler, suited for high-frequency online coupled experiments. A new fast scan method is presented for structured grids as an alternative for the former time-consuming grid search strategy, realising a performance gain of several orders of magnitude and enabling the mapping of high-resolution data sets with a much larger number of grid nodes. Further, a highly flexible masked mapping option is added. The limitation of the fast scan method with respect to unstructured and adaptive grids is discussed together with a possible future parallel Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation.

  1. Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.

    Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

  2. Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

    DOE PAGES

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.; ...

    2017-04-01

    Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

  3. Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

    2016-04-01

    To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

  4. Determination of Ice Water Path in Ice-over-Water Cloud Systems Using Combined MODIS and AMSR-E Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Lin, Bing; Yi, Yuhong; Fan, T.-F.; Sun-Mack, Sunny; Ayers, J. K.

    2006-01-01

    To provide more accurate ice cloud properties for evaluating climate models, the updated version of multi-layered cloud retrieval system (MCRS) is used to retrieve ice water path (IWP) in ice-over-water cloud systems over global ocean using combined instrument data from the Aqua satellite. The liquid water path (LWP) of lower layer water clouds is estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) measurements. With the lower layer LWP known, the properties of the upper-level ice clouds are then derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements by matching simulated radiances from a two-cloud layer radiative transfer model. Comparisons with single-layer cirrus systems and surface-based radar retrievals show that the MCRS can significantly improve the accuracy and reduce the over-estimation of optical depth and ice water path retrievals for ice over-water cloud systems. During the period from December 2004 through February 2005, the mean daytime ice cloud optical depth and IWP for overlapped ice-over-water clouds over ocean from Aqua are 7.6 and 146.4 gm(sup -2), respectively, significantly less than the initial single layer retrievals of 17.3 and 322.3 gm(sup -2). The mean IWP for actual single-layer clouds was 128.2 gm(sup -2).

  5. Influence of Ice Particle Surface Roughening on the Global Cloud Radiative Effect

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Baum, Bryan A.; LEcuyer, Tristan; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Mlawer, Eli J.; Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Liou, Kuo-Nan

    2013-01-01

    Ice clouds influence the climate system by changing the radiation budget and large-scale circulation. Therefore, climate models need to have an accurate representation of ice clouds and their radiative effects. In this paper, new broadband parameterizations for ice cloud bulk scattering properties are developed for severely roughened ice particles. The parameterizations are based on a general habit mixture that includes nine habits (droxtals, hollow/solid columns, plates, solid/hollow bullet rosettes, aggregate of solid columns, and small/large aggregates of plates). The scattering properties for these individual habits incorporate recent advances in light-scattering computations. The influence of ice particle surface roughness on the ice cloud radiative effect is determined through simulations with the Fu-Liou and the GCM version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) codes and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). The differences in shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative effect at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface are determined for smooth and severely roughened ice particles. While the influence of particle roughening on the single-scattering properties is negligible in the LW, the results indicate that ice crystal roughness can change the SW forcing locally by more than 10 W m(exp -2) over a range of effective diameters. The global-averaged SW cloud radiative effect due to ice particle surface roughness is estimated to be roughly 1-2 W m(exp -2). The CAM results indicate that ice particle roughening can result in a large regional SW radiative effect and a small but nonnegligible increase in the global LW cloud radiative effect.

  6. Influence of Ice Cloud Microphysics on Imager-Based Estimates of Earth's Radiation Budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loeb, N. G.; Kato, S.; Minnis, P.; Yang, P.; Sun-Mack, S.; Rose, F. G.; Hong, G.; Ham, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    A central objective of the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is to produce a long-term global climate data record of Earth's radiation budget from the TOA down to the surface along with the associated atmospheric and surface properties that influence it. CERES relies on a number of data sources, including broadband radiometers measuring incoming and reflected solar radiation and OLR, high-resolution spectral imagers, meteorological, aerosol and ozone assimilation data, and snow/sea-ice maps based on microwave radiometer data. While the TOA radiation budget is largely determined directly from accurate broadband radiometer measurements, the surface radiation budget is derived indirectly through radiative transfer model calculations initialized using imager-based cloud and aerosol retrievals and meteorological assimilation data. Because ice cloud particles exhibit a wide range of shapes, sizes and habits that cannot be independently retrieved a priori from passive visible/infrared imager measurements, assumptions about the scattering properties of ice clouds are necessary in order to retrieve ice cloud optical properties (e.g., optical depth) from imager radiances and to compute broadband radiative fluxes. This presentation will examine how the choice of an ice cloud particle model impacts computed shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface. The ice cloud particle models considered correspond to those from prior, current and future CERES data product versions. During the CERES Edition2 (and Edition3) processing, ice cloud particles were assumed to be smooth hexagonal columns. In the Edition4, roughened hexagonal columns are assumed. The CERES team is now working on implementing in a future version an ice cloud particle model comprised of a two-habit ice cloud model consisting of roughened hexagonal columns and aggregates of roughened columnar elements. In each case, we use the same ice particle model in both the

  7. Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic

  8. Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2003-01-01

    Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong

  9. Sensitivity Studies of Dust Ice Nuclei Effect on Cirrus Clouds with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Kai; Jensen, Eric J.; Gettelman, Andrew; Barahona, Donifan; Nenes, Athanasios; Lawson, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this study the effect of dust aerosol on upper tropospheric cirrus clouds through heterogeneous ice nucleation is investigated in the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) with two ice nucleation parameterizations. Both parameterizations consider homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and the competition between the two mechanisms in cirrus clouds, but differ significantly in the number concentration of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) from dust. Heterogeneous nucleation on dust aerosol reduces the occurrence frequency of homogeneous nucleation and thus the ice crystal number concentration in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cirrus clouds compared to simulations with pure homogeneous nucleation. Global and annual mean shortwave and longwave cloud forcing are reduced by up to 2.0+/-0.1Wm (sup-2) (1 uncertainty) and 2.4+/-0.1Wm (sup-2), respectively due to the presence of dust IN, with the net cloud forcing change of -0.40+/-0.20W m(sup-2). Comparison of model simulations with in situ aircraft data obtained in NH mid-latitudes suggests that homogeneous ice nucleation may play an important role in the ice nucleation at these regions with temperatures of 205-230 K. However, simulations overestimate observed ice crystal number concentrations in the tropical tropopause regions with temperatures of 190- 205 K, and overestimate the frequency of occurrence of high ice crystal number concentration (greater than 200 L(sup-1) and underestimate the frequency of low ice crystal number concentration (less than 30 L(sup-1) at NH mid-latitudes. These results highlight the importance of quantifying the number concentrations and properties of heterogeneous IN (including dust aerosol) in the upper troposphere from the global perspective.

  10. Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

    2000-05-01

    A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

  11. Minimalist Model of Ice Microphysics in Mixed-phase Stratiform Clouds

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

    The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from super cooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model, and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power lawmore » relationship with ice number concentration ni. wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation also confirm the 2.5 power law relationship. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate, and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.« less

  12. Numerical Modeling of River Ice Processes on the Lower Nelson River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malenchak, Jarrod Joseph

    Water resource infrastructure in cold regions of the world can be significantly impacted by the existence of river ice. Major engineering concerns related to river ice include ice jam flooding, the design and operation of hydropower facilities and other hydraulic structures, water supplies, as well as ecological, environmental, and morphological effects. The use of numerical simulation models has been identified as one of the most efficient means by which river ice processes can be studied and the effects of river ice be evaluated. The continued advancement of these simulation models will help to develop new theories and evaluate potential mitigation alternatives for these ice issues. In this thesis, a literature review of existing river ice numerical models, of anchor ice formation and modeling studies, and of aufeis formation and modeling studies is conducted. A high level summary of the two-dimensional CRISSP numerical model is presented as well as the developed freeze-up model with a focus specifically on the anchor ice and aufeis growth processes. This model includes development in the detailed heat transfer calculations, an improved surface ice mass exchange model which includes the rapids entrainment process, and an improved dry bed treatment model along with the expanded anchor ice and aufeis growth model. The developed sub-models are tested in an ideal channel setting as somewhat of a model confirmation. A case study of significant anchor ice and aufeis growth on the Nelson River in northern Manitoba, Canada, will be the primary field test case for the anchor ice and aufeis model. A second case study on the same river will be used to evaluate the surface ice components of the model in a field setting. The results from these cases studies will be used to highlight the capabilities and deficiencies in the numerical model and to identify areas of further research and model development.

  13. Sea-ice deformation in a coupled ocean-sea-ice model and in satellite remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spreen, Gunnar; Kwok, Ron; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Nguyen, An T.

    2017-07-01

    A realistic representation of sea-ice deformation in models is important for accurate simulation of the sea-ice mass balance. Simulated sea-ice deformation from numerical simulations with 4.5, 9, and 18 km horizontal grid spacing and a viscous-plastic (VP) sea-ice rheology are compared with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite observations (RGPS, RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System) for the time period 1996-2008. All three simulations can reproduce the large-scale ice deformation patterns, but small-scale sea-ice deformations and linear kinematic features (LKFs) are not adequately reproduced. The mean sea-ice total deformation rate is about 40 % lower in all model solutions than in the satellite observations, especially in the seasonal sea-ice zone. A decrease in model grid spacing, however, produces a higher density and more localized ice deformation features. The 4.5 km simulation produces some linear kinematic features, but not with the right frequency. The dependence on length scale and probability density functions (PDFs) of absolute divergence and shear for all three model solutions show a power-law scaling behavior similar to RGPS observations, contrary to what was found in some previous studies. Overall, the 4.5 km simulation produces the most realistic divergence, vorticity, and shear when compared with RGPS data. This study provides an evaluation of high and coarse-resolution viscous-plastic sea-ice simulations based on spatial distribution, time series, and power-law scaling metrics.

  14. A coupled dynamic-thermodynamic model of an ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa

    1987-01-01

    Thermodynamics are incorporated into a coupled ice-ocean model in order to investigate wind-driven ice-ocean processes in the marginal zone. Upswelling at the ice edge which is generated by the difference in the ice-air and air-water surface stresses is found to give rise to a strong entrainment by drawing the pycnocline closer to the surface. Entrainment is shown to be negligible outside the areas affected by the ice edge upswelling. If cooling at the top is included in the model, the heat and salt exchanges are further enhanced in the upswelling areas. It is noted that new ice formation occurs in the region not affected by ice edge upswelling, and it is suggested that the high-salinity mixed layer regions (with a scale of a few Rossby radii of deformation) will overturn due to cooling, possibly contributing to the formation of deep water.

  15. IceChrono v1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrenin, Frédéric

    2015-04-01

    Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores is essential to interpret the paleo records that they contain, but it is a complicated problem since it involves different dating methods. Here I present IceChrono v1, a new probabilistic model to combine different kinds of chronological information to obtain a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. It is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the Lock-In Depth (LID) of air bubbles and the vertical thinning function. The chronological information used are: models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice and gas dated horizons, ice and gas dated depth intervals, Δdepth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air), stratigraphic links in between ice cores (ice-ice, air-air or mix ice-air and air-ice links). The optimization problem is formulated as a least squares problems, that is, all densities of probabilities are assumed gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono is similar in scope to the Datice model, but has differences from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. I apply IceChrono on an AICC2012-like experiment and I find similar results than Datice within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono and Datice codes. IceChrono v1 is freely available under the GPL v3 open source license.

  16. Sea ice and polar climate in the NCAR CSM

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Weatherly, J.W.; Briegleb, B.P.; Large, W.G.

    The Climate System Model (CSM) consists of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice components linked by a flux coupler, which computes fluxes of energy and momentum between components. The sea-ice component consists of a thermodynamic formulation for ice, snow, and leads within the ice pack, and ice dynamics using the cavitating-fluid ice rheology, which allows for the compressive strength of ice but ignores shear viscosity. The results of a 300-yr climate simulation are presented, with the focus on sea ice and the atmospheric forcing over sea ice in the polar regions. The atmospheric model results are compared to analyses from themore » European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other observational sources. The sea-ice concentrations and velocities are compared to satellite observational data. The atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in CSM exhibits a high in the central Arctic displaced poleward from the observed Beaufort high. The Southern Hemisphere SLP over sea ice is generally 5 mb lower than observed. Air temperatures over sea ice in both hemispheres exhibit cold biases of 2--4 K. The precipitation-minus-evaporation fields in both hemispheres are greatly improved over those from earlier versions of the atmospheric GCM.« less

  17. Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

    PubMed

    Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

    2015-04-24

    The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

  18. Simple model of melange and its influence on rapid ice retreat in a large-scale Antarctic ice sheet model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Theory, modeling and observations point to the prospect of runaway grounding-line retreat and marine ice loss from West Antarctica and major East Antarctic basins, in response to climate warming. These rapid retreats are associated with geologic evidence of past high sea-level stands, and pose a threat of drastic sea-level rise in the future.Rapid calving of ice from deep grounding lines generates substantial downstream melange (floating ice debris). It is unknown whether this melange has a significant effect on ice dynamics during major Antarctic retreats, through clogging of seaways and back pressure at the grounding line. Observations in Greenland fjords suggest that melange can have a significant buttressing effect, but the lateral scales of Antarctic basins are an order of magnitude larger (100's km compared to 10's km), with presumably much less influence of confining margins.Here we attempt to include melange as a prognostic variable in a 3-DAntarctic ice sheet-shelf model. Continuum mechanics is used as aheuristic representation of discrete particle physics. Melange is createdby ice calving and cliff failure. Its dynamics are treated similarly to ice flow, but with little or no resistance to divergence. Melange providesback pressure where adjacent to grounded tidewater ice faces or ice-shelf edges. We examine the influence of the new melange component during rapid Antarctic retreat in warm-Pliocene and future warming scenarios.

  19. Modeling the fracture of ice sheets on parallel computers.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Waisman, Haim; Bell, Robin; Keyes, David

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this project is to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. Dramatic illustrations of fracture-induced phenomena most notably include the recent collapse of ice shelves inmore » Antarctica (e.g. partial collapse of the Wilkins shelf in March of 2008 and the diminishing extent of the Larsen B shelf from 1998 to 2002). Other fracture examples include ice calving (fracture of icebergs) which is presently approximated in simplistic ways within ice sheet models, and the draining of supraglacial lakes through a complex network of cracks, a so called ice sheet plumbing system, that is believed to cause accelerated ice sheet flows due essentially to lubrication of the contact surface with the ground. These dramatic changes are emblematic of the ongoing change in the Earth's polar regions and highlight the important role of fracturing ice. To model ice fracture, a simulation capability will be designed centered around extended finite elements and solved by specialized multigrid methods on parallel computers. In addition, appropriate dynamic load balancing techniques will be employed to ensure an approximate equal amount of work for each processor.« less

  20. Modelling water flow under glaciers and ice sheets.

    PubMed

    Flowers, Gwenn E

    2015-04-08

    Recent observations of dynamic water systems beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have sparked renewed interest in modelling subglacial drainage. The foundations of today's models were laid decades ago, inspired by measurements from mountain glaciers, discovery of the modern ice streams and the study of landscapes evacuated by former ice sheets. Models have progressed from strict adherence to the principles of groundwater flow, to the incorporation of flow 'elements' specific to the subglacial environment, to sophisticated two-dimensional representations of interacting distributed and channelized drainage. Although presently in a state of rapid development, subglacial drainage models, when coupled to models of ice flow, are now able to reproduce many of the canonical phenomena that characterize this coupled system. Model calibration remains generally out of reach, whereas widespread application of these models to large problems and real geometries awaits the next level of development.

  1. Modelling water flow under glaciers and ice sheets

    PubMed Central

    Flowers, Gwenn E.

    2015-01-01

    Recent observations of dynamic water systems beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have sparked renewed interest in modelling subglacial drainage. The foundations of today's models were laid decades ago, inspired by measurements from mountain glaciers, discovery of the modern ice streams and the study of landscapes evacuated by former ice sheets. Models have progressed from strict adherence to the principles of groundwater flow, to the incorporation of flow ‘elements’ specific to the subglacial environment, to sophisticated two-dimensional representations of interacting distributed and channelized drainage. Although presently in a state of rapid development, subglacial drainage models, when coupled to models of ice flow, are now able to reproduce many of the canonical phenomena that characterize this coupled system. Model calibration remains generally out of reach, whereas widespread application of these models to large problems and real geometries awaits the next level of development. PMID:27547082

  2. Minimalist model of ice microphysics in mixed-phase stratiform clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Fan; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.

    2013-07-01

    The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from supercooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power-law relationship with ice number concentration (ni). wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation confirm the 2.5 power-law relationship, and initial indications of the scaling law are observed in data from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties.

  3. Cirrus cloud model parameterizations: Incorporating realistic ice particle generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sassen, Kenneth; Dodd, G. C.; Starr, David OC.

    1990-01-01

    Recent cirrus cloud modeling studies have involved the application of a time-dependent, two dimensional Eulerian model, with generalized cloud microphysical parameterizations drawn from experimental findings. For computing the ice versus vapor phase changes, the ice mass content is linked to the maintenance of a relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) of 105 percent; ice growth occurs both with regard to the introduction of new particles and the growth of existing particles. In a simplified cloud model designed to investigate the basic role of various physical processes in the growth and maintenance of cirrus clouds, these parametric relations are justifiable. In comparison, the one dimensional cloud microphysical model recently applied to evaluating the nucleation and growth of ice crystals in cirrus clouds explicitly treated populations of haze and cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Although these two modeling approaches are clearly incompatible, the goal of the present numerical study is to develop a parametric treatment of new ice particle generation, on the basis of detailed microphysical model findings, for incorporation into improved cirrus growth models. For example, the relation between temperature and the relative humidity required to generate ice crystals from ammonium sulfate haze droplets, whose probability of freezing through the homogeneous nucleation mode are a combined function of time and droplet molality, volume, and temperature. As an example of this approach, the results of cloud microphysical simulations are presented showing the rather narrow domain in the temperature/humidity field where new ice crystals can be generated. The microphysical simulations point out the need for detailed CCN studies at cirrus altitudes and haze droplet measurements within cirrus clouds, but also suggest that a relatively simple treatment of ice particle generation, which includes cloud chemistry, can be incorporated into cirrus cloud growth.

  4. ISMIP6: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowicki, S.

    2015-01-01

    ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) targets the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the Future Sea Level Grand Challenges of the WCRP (World Climate Research Program). Primary goal is to provide future sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty. Secondary goal is to investigate feedback due to dynamic ice sheet models. Experiment design uses and augment the existing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) experiments. Additonal MIP (Model Intercomparison Project)- specific experiments will be designed for ISM (Ice Sheet Model). Effort builds on the Ice2sea, SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) and COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) efforts.

  5. Comment on "An Assessment of the ICE-6G_C (VM5a) Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model" by Purcell et al.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richard Peltier, W.; Argus, Donald F.; Drummond, Rosemarie

    2018-02-01

    The most recently published model of the glacial isostatic adjustment process in the ICE-NG (VMX) sequence from the University of Toronto, denoted ICE-6G_C (VM5a), was originally developed to degree and order 256 in spherical harmonics and has been shown to provide accurate fits to a voluminous database of GPS observations from North America, Eurasia, and Antarctica, to time dependent gravity data being provided by the GRACE satellites, and to radiocarbon-dated relative sea level histories through the Holocene epoch. The authors of the Purcell et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012742) paper have suggested this model to be flawed. We have produced a further version of our model, denoted ICE-6G_D (VM5a), by employing the same BEDMAP2 bathymetry for the Southern Ocean as employed in their analysis which has somewhat reduced the differences between our results. However, significant physically important differences remain, including the magnitude of present-day vertical crustal motion in the embayments and in the spectrum of Stokes coefficients for present-day geoid height time dependence which continues to "flatten" at high spherical harmonic degree. We explore the reasons for these differences and trace them to the use by Purcell et al. of a loading history for the embayments that differs significantly from that tabulated for both the original and modified versions of our model.

  6. ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

    2016-04-01

    Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

  7. Climate Modeling: Ocean Cavities below Ice Shelves

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Petersen, Mark Roger

    The Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), a new initiative by the U.S. Department of Energy, includes unstructured-mesh ocean, land-ice, and sea-ice components using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework. The ability to run coupled high-resolution global simulations efficiently on large, high-performance computers is a priority for ACME. Sub-ice shelf ocean cavities are a significant new capability in ACME, and will be used to better understand how changing ocean temperature and currents influence glacial melting and retreat. These simulations take advantage of the horizontal variable-resolution mesh and adaptive vertical coordinate in MPAS-Ocean, in order to place high resolutionmore » below ice shelves and near grounding lines.« less

  8. Polarimetric Signatures of Sea Ice. Part 1; Theoretical Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Kwok, R.; Yueh, S. H.; Drinkwater, M. R.

    1995-01-01

    Physical, structural, and electromagnetic properties and interrelating processes in sea ice are used to develop a composite model for polarimetric backscattering signatures of sea ice. Physical properties of sea ice constituents such as ice, brine, air, and salt are presented in terms of their effects on electromagnetic wave interactions. Sea ice structure and geometry of scatterers are related to wave propagation, attenuation, and scattering. Temperature and salinity, which are determining factors for the thermodynamic phase distribution in sea ice, are consistently used to derive both effective permittivities and polarimetric scattering coefficients. Polarimetric signatures of sea ice depend on crystal sizes and brine volumes, which are affected by ice growth rates. Desalination by brine expulsion, drainage, or other mechanisms modifies wave penetration and scattering. Sea ice signatures are further complicated by surface conditions such as rough interfaces, hummocks, snow cover, brine skim, or slush layer. Based on the same set of geophysical parameters characterizing sea ice, a composite model is developed to calculate effective permittivities and backscattering covariance matrices at microwave frequencies for interpretation of sea ice polarimetric signatures.

  9. Can Seismic Observations of Bed Conditions on Ice Streams Help Constrain Parameters in Ice Flow Models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyrke-Smith, Teresa M.; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Farrell, Patrick E.

    2017-11-01

    We investigate correlations between seismically derived estimates of basal acoustic impedance and basal slipperiness values obtained from a surface-to-bed inversion using a Stokes ice flow model. Using high-resolution measurements along several seismic profiles on Pine Island Glacier (PIG), we find no significant correlation at kilometer scale between acoustic impedance and either retrieved basal slipperiness or basal drag. However, there is a stronger correlation when comparing average values along the individual profiles. We hypothesize that the correlation appears at the length scales over which basal variations are important to large-scale ice sheet flow. Although the seismic technique is sensitive to the material properties of the bed, at present there is no clear way of incorporating high-resolution seismic measurements of bed properties on ice streams into ice flow models. We conclude that more theoretical work needs to be done before constraints on mechanical conditions at the ice-bed interface from acoustic impedance measurements can be of direct use to ice sheet models.

  10. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

    PubMed Central

    Nowicki, Sophie M.J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet – climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change. PMID:29697697

  11. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

  12. An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pollard, D.

    1978-01-01

    The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

  13. Quantifying model uncertainty in seasonal Arctic sea-ice forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Barthélemy, Antoine; Chevallier, Matthieu; Cullather, Richard; Fučkar, Neven; Massonnet, François; Posey, Pamela; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhang, Jinlun; Ardilouze, Constantin; Bitz, Cecilia; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wallcraft, Alan; Wang, Muyin

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or post-processing techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

  14. Sensitivity study of a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, David M.; Mysak, Lawrence A.; Manak, Davinder K.; Oberhuber, Josef M.

    1993-02-01

    A numerical simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean and the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas is presented. The sea ice model is extracted from Oberhuber's (1990) coupled sea ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model and is written in spherical coordinates. The advantage of such a model over previous sea ice models is that it can be easily coupled to either global atmospheric or ocean general circulation models written in spherical coordinates. In this model, the thermodynamics are a modification of that of Parkinson and Washington (1979), while the dynamics use the full Hibler (1979) viscous-plastic rheology. Monthly thermodynamic and dynamic forcing fields for the atmosphere and ocean are specified. The simulations of the seasonal cycle of ice thickness, compactness, and velocity, for a control set of parameters, compare favorably with the known seasonal characteristics of these fields. A sensitivity study of the control simulation of the seasonal sea ice cover is presented. The sensitivity runs are carried out under three different themes, namely, numerical conditions, parameter values, and physical processes. This last theme refers to experiments in which physical processes are either newly added or completely removed from the model. Approximately 80 sensitivity runs have been performed in which a change from the control run environment has been implemented. Comparisons have been made between the control run and a particular sensitivity run based on time series of the seasonal cycle of the domain-averaged ice thickness, compactness, areal coverage, and kinetic energy. In addition, spatially varying fields of ice thickness, compactness, velocity, and surface temperature for each season are presented for selected experiments. A brief description and discussion of the more interesting experiments are presented. The simulation of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice cover is shown to be robust.

  15. Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

  16. An optical model for the microwave properties of sea ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gloersen, P.; Larabee, J. K.

    1981-01-01

    The complex refractive index of sea ice is modeled and used to predict the microwave signatures of various sea ice types. Results are shown to correspond well with the observed values of the complex index inferred from dielectic constant and dielectric loss measurements performed in the field, and with observed microwave signatures of sea ice. The success of this modeling procedure vis a vis modeling of the dielectric properties of sea ice constituents used earlier by several others is explained. Multiple layer radiative transfer calculations are used to predict the microwave properties of first-year sea ice with and without snow, and multiyear sea ice.

  17. Minimalist model of ice microphysics in mixed-phase stratiform clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, F.; Ovchinnikov, M.; Shaw, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    The question of whether persistent ice crystal precipitation from supercooled layer clouds can be explained by time-dependent, stochastic ice nucleation is explored using an approximate, analytical model and a large-eddy simulation (LES) cloud model. The updraft velocity in the cloud defines an accumulation zone, where small ice particles cannot fall out until they are large enough, which will increase the residence time of ice particles in the cloud. Ice particles reach a quasi-steady state between growth by vapor deposition and fall speed at cloud base. The analytical model predicts that ice water content (wi) has a 2.5 power-law relationship with ice number concentration (ni). wi and ni from a LES cloud model with stochastic ice nucleation confirm the 2.5 power-law relationship, and initial indications of the scaling law are observed in data from the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. The prefactor of the power law is proportional to the ice nucleation rate and therefore provides a quantitative link to observations of ice microphysical properties. Ice water content (wi) and ice number concentration (ni) relationship from LES. a and c: Accumulation zone region; b and d: Selective accumulation zone region. Black lines in c and d are best fitted 2.5 slope lines. Colors in Figures a and b represent updraft velocity, while colors in c and d represent altitude. The cloud base and top are at about 600 m and 800 m, respectively. Ice water content (wi) and ice number concentration (ni) relationship for two ice nucleation rates. Blue points are from LES with low ice nucleation rate and red points with high ice nucleation rate. Solid and dashed lines are best fitted 2.5 slope lines.

  18. Ice Shelves and Landfast Ice on the Antarctic Perimeter: Revised Scope of Work

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scambos, Ted

    2002-01-01

    Ice shelves respond quickly and profoundly to a warming climate. Within a decade after mean summertime temperature reaches approx. O C and persistent melt pending is observed, a rapid retreat and disintegration occurs. This link was documented for ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula region (the Larsen 'A', 'B' and Wilkins Ice shelves) by the results of a previous grant under ADRO-1. Modeling of ice flow and the effects of meltwater indicated that melt pending accelerates shelf breakup by increasing fracture penetration. SAR data supplemented an AVHRR- and SSM/I-based image analysis of extent and surface characteristic changes. This funded grant is a revised, scaled-down version of an earlier proposal under the ADRO-2 NRA. The overall objective remains the same: we propose to build on the previous study by examining other ice shelves of the Antarctic and incorporate an examination of the climate-related characteristics of landfast ice. The study now considers just a few shelf and fast ice areas for study, and is funded for two years. The study regions are the northeastern Ross Ice Shelf, the Larsen 'B' and 'C' shelves, fast ice and floating shelf ice in the Pine Island Glacier area, and fast ice along the Wilkes Land coast. Further, rather than investigating a host of shelf and fast ice processes, we will home in on developing a series of characteristics associated with climate change over shelf and fast ice areas. Melt pending and break-up are the end stages of a response to a warming climate that may begin with increased melt event frequency (which changes both albedo and emissivity temporarily), changing firn backscatter (due to percolation features), and possibly increased rifting of the shelf surface. Fast ice may show some of these same processes on a seasonal timescale, providing insight into shelf evolution.

  19. Modeling seasonality of ice and ocean carbon production in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, M.; Deal, C. M.; Ji, R.

    2011-12-01

    In the Arctic Ocean, both phytoplankton and sea ice algae are important contributors to the primary production and the arctic food web. Copepod in the arctic regions have developed their feeding habit depending on the timing between the ice algal bloom and the subsequent phytoplankton bloom. A mismatch of the timing due to climate changes could have dramatic consequences on the food web as shown by some regional observations. In this study, a global coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem model was used to assess the seasonality of the ice algal and phytoplankton blooms in the arctic. The ice-ocean ecosystem modules are fully coupled in the physical model POP-CICE (Parallel Ocean Program- Los Alamos Sea Ice Model). The model results are compared with various observations. The modeled ice and ocean carbon production were analyzed by regions and their linkage to the physical environment changes (such as changes of ice concentration and water temperature, and light intensity etc.) between low- and high-ice years.

  20. Analogue modelling of the influence of ice shelf collapse on the flow of ice sheets grounded below sea-level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corti, Giacomo; Zeoli, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The sudden breakup of ice shelves is expected to result in significant acceleration of inland glaciers, a process related to the removal of the buttressing effect exerted by the ice shelf on the tributary glaciers. This effect has been tested in previous analogue models, which however applied to ice sheets grounded above sea level (e.g., East Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctic Peninsula and the Larsen Ice Shelf). In this work we expand these previous results by performing small-scale laboratory models that analyse the influence of ice shelf collapse on the flow of ice streams draining an ice sheet grounded below sea level (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet). The analogue models, with dimensions (width, length, thickness) of 120x70x1.5cm were performed at the Tectonic Modelling Laboratory of CNR-IGG of Florence, Italy, by using Polydimethilsyloxane (PDMS) as analogue for the flowing ice. This transparent, Newtonian silicone has been shown to well approximate the rheology of natural ice. The silicone was allowed to flow into a water reservoir simulating natural conditions in which ice streams flow into the sea, terminating in extensive ice shelves which act as a buttress for their glaciers and slow their flow. The geometric scaling ratio was 10(-5), such that 1cm in the models simulated 1km in nature; velocity of PDMS (a few mm per hour) simulated natural velocities of 100-1000 m/year. Instability of glacier flow was induced by manually removing a basal silicone platform (floating on water) exerting backstresses to the flowing analogue glacier: the simple set-up adopted in the experiments isolates the effect of the removal of the buttressing effect that the floating platform exerts on the flowing glaciers, thus offering insights into the influence of this parameter on the flow perturbations resulting from a collapse event. The experimental results showed a significant increase in glacier velocity close to its outlet following ice shelf breakup, a process similar to what

  1. Glaciological constraints on current ice mass changes from modelling the ice sheets over the glacial cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybrechts, P.

    2003-04-01

    The evolution of continental ice sheets introduces a long time scale in the climate system. Large ice sheets have a memory of millenia, hence the present-day ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are still adjusting to climatic variations extending back to the last glacial period. This trend is separate from the direct response to mass-balance changes on decadal time scales and needs to be correctly accounted for when assessing current and future contributions to sea level. One way to obtain estimates of current ice mass changes is to model the past history of the ice sheets and their underlying beds over the glacial cycles. Such calculations assist to distinguish between the longer-term ice-dynamic evolution and short-term mass-balance changes when interpreting altimetry data, and are helpful to isolate the effects of postglacial rebound from gravity and altimetry trends. The presentation will discuss results obtained from 3-D thermomechanical ice-sheet/lithosphere/bedrock models applied to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The simulations are forced by time-dependent boundary conditions derived from sediment and ice core records and are constrained by geomorphological and glacial-geological data of past ice sheet and sea-level stands. Current simulations suggest that the Greenland ice sheet is close to balance, while the Antarctic ice sheet is still losing mass, mainly due to incomplete grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the LGM. The results indicate that altimetry trends are likely dominated by ice thickness changes but that the gravitational signal mainly reflects postglacial rebound.

  2. Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.1 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.1 software release and distribution

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Animal facilities are significant contributors of gaseous emissions including ammonia (NH3) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Previous versions of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.0) and Dairy Gas Emissions Model (DairyGEM version 3.0), two whole-farm simulation models developed by USDA-ARS, ...

  3. Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

    2015-12-01

    Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

  4. Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice: Anthropogenic or Natural Variability?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bitz, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    Antarctic sea ice extent has increased over the last 36 years according to the satellite record. Concurrent with Antarctic sea-ice expansion has been broad cooling of the Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature. Not only are Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends at odds with expectations from greenhouse gas-induced warming, the trend patterns are not reproduced in historical simulations with comprehensive global climate models. While a variety of different factors may have contributed to the observed trends in recent decades, we propose that it is atmospheric circulation changes - and the changes in ocean circulation they induce - that have emerged as the most likely cause of the observed Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends. I will discuss deficiencies in models that could explain their incorrect response. In addition, I will present results from a series of experiments where the Antarctic sea ice and ocean are forced by atmospheric perturbations imposed within a coupled climate model. Figure caption: Linear trends of annual-mean SST (left) and annual-mean sea-ice concentration (right) over 1980-2014. SST is from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (version 2; Reynolds et al. 2002). Sea-ice concentration is from passive microwave observations using the NASA Team algorithm. Only the annual means are shown here for brevity and because the signal to noise is greater than in the seasonal means. Figure from Armour and Bitz (2015).

  5. Partitioning CloudSat Ice Water Content for Comparison with Upper-Tropospheric Ice in Global Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, W. A.; Woods, C. P.; Li, J. F.; Waliser, D. E.; Chern, J.; Tao, W.; Jiang, J. H.; Tompkins, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    CloudSat provides important estimates of vertically resolved ice water content (IWC) on a global scale based on radar reflectivity. These estimates of IWC have proven beneficial in evaluating the representations of ice clouds in global models. An issue when performing model-data comparisons of IWC particularly germane to this investigation, is the question of which component(s) of the frozen water mass are represented by retrieval estimates and how they relate to what is represented in models. The present study developed and applied a new technique to partition CloudSat total IWC into small and large ice hydrometeors, based on the CloudSat-retrieved ice particle size distribution (PSD) parameters. The new method allows one to make relevant model-data comparisons and provides new insights into the model’s representation of atmospheric IWC. The partitioned CloudSat IWC suggests that the small ice particles contribute to 20-30% of the total IWC in the upper troposphere when a threshold size of 100 μm is used. Sensitivity measures with respect to the threshold size, the PSD parameters, and the retrieval algorithms are presented. The new dataset is compared to model estimates, pointing to areas for model improvement. Cloud ice analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model agree well with the small IWC from CloudSat. The finite-volume multi-scale modeling framework model underestimates total IWC at 147 and 215 hPa, while overestimating the fractional contribution from the small ice species. These results are discussed in terms of their applications to, and implications for, the evaluation of global atmospheric models, providing constraints on the representations of cloud feedback and precipitation in global models, which in turn can help reduce uncertainties associated with climate change projections. Figure 1. A sample lognormal ice number distribution (red curve), and the corresponding mass distribution (black curve). The dotted line

  6. In search of laterally heterogeneous viscosity models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment with the ICE-6G_C global ice history model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Tanghua; Wu, Patrick; Steffen, Holger; Wang, Hansheng

    2018-05-01

    Most models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) assume that the Earth is laterally homogeneous. However, seismic and geological observations clearly show that the Earth's mantle is laterally heterogeneous. Previous studies of GIA with lateral heterogeneity mostly focused on its effect or sensitivity on GIA predictions, and it is not clear to what extent can lateral heterogeneity solve the misfits between GIA predictions and observations. Our aim is to search for the best 3D viscosity models that can simultaneously fit the global relative sea-level (RSL) data, the peak uplift rates (u-dot from GNSS) and peak gravity-rate-of-change (g-dot from the GRACE satellite mission) in Laurentia and Fennoscandia. However, the search is dependent on the ice and viscosity model inputs - the latter depends on the background viscosity and the seismic tomography models used. In this paper, the ICE-6G_C ice model, with Bunge & Grand's seismic tomography model and background viscosity models close to VM5 will be assumed. A Coupled Laplace-Finite Element Method is used to compute gravitationally self-consistent sea level change with time dependent coastlines and rotational feedback in addition to changes in deformation, gravity and the state of stress. Several laterally heterogeneous models are found to fit the global sea level data better than laterally homogeneous models. Two of these laterally heterogeneous models also fit the ICE-6G_C peak g-dot and u-dot rates observed in Laurentia simultaneously. However, even with the introduction of lateral heterogeneity, no model that is able to fit the present-day g-dot and uplift rate data in Fennoscandia has been found. Therefore, either the ice history of ICE-6G_C in Fennoscandia and Barent Sea needs some modifications, or the sub-lithospheric property/non-thermal effect underneath northern Europe must be different from that underneath Laurentia.

  7. A model of the Greenland ice sheet deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecavalier, Benoit

    The goal of this thesis is to improve our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and how it responds to climate change. This was achieved using ice core records to infer elevation changes of the GrIS during the Holocene (11.7 ka BP to Present). The inferred elevation changes show the response of the ice sheet interior to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 9-5 ka BP) when temperatures across Greenland were warmer than present. These ice-core derived thinning curves act as a new set of key constraints on the deglacial history of the GrIS. Furthermore, a calibration was conducted on a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet, glacial isostatic adjustment, and relative sea-level model of GrIS evolution during the most recent deglaciation (21 ka BP to present). The model was data-constrained to a variety of proxy records from paleoclimate archives and present-day observations of ice thickness and extent.

  8. Modeling the processing of interstellar ices by energetic particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalvāns, J.; Shmeld, I.

    2013-06-01

    Context. Interstellar ice is the main form of metal species in dark molecular clouds. Experiments and observations have shown that the ice is significantly processed after the freeze-out of molecules onto grains. The processing is caused by cosmic-ray particles and cosmic-ray-induced UV photons. These transformations are included in current astrochemical models only to a very limited degree. Aims: We aim to establish a model of the "cold" chemistry in interstellar ices and to evaluate its general impact on the composition of interstellar ices. Methods: The ice was treated as consisting of two layers - the surface and the mantle (or subsurface) layer. Subsurface chemical processes are described with photodissociation of ice species and binary reactions on the surfaces of cavities inside the mantle. Hydrogen atoms and molecules can diffuse between the layers. We also included deuterium chemistry. Results: The modeling results show that the content of chemically bound H is reduced in subsurface molecules by about 30% on average. This promotes the formation of more hydrogen-poor species in the ice. The enrichment of ice molecules with deuterium is significantly reduced by the subsurface processes. On average, it follows the gas-phase atomic D/H abundance ratio, with a delay. The delay produced by the model is on the order of several Myr. Conclusions: The processing of ice may place new constraints on the production of deuterated species on grains. In a mantle with a two-layer structure the upper layer (CO) should be processed substantially more intensively than the lower layer (H2O). Chemical explosions in interstellar ice might not be an important process. They destroy the structure of the mantle, which forms over long timescales. Besides, ices may lack the high radical content needed for the explosions.

  9. One hundred years of Arctic ice cover variations as simulated by a one-dimensional, ice-ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hakkinen, S.; Mellor, G. L.

    1990-09-01

    A one-dimensional ice-ocean model consisting of a second moment, turbulent closure, mixed layer model and a three-layer snow-ice model has been applied to the simulation of Arctic ice mass and mixed layer properties. The results for the climatological seasonal cycle are discussed first and include the salt and heat balance in the upper ocean. The coupled model is then applied to the period 1880-1985, using the surface air temperature fluctuations from Hansen et al. (1983) and from Wigley et al. (1981). The analysis of the simulated large variations of the Arctic ice mass during this period (with similar changes in the mixed layer salinity) shows that the variability in the summer melt determines to a high degree the variability in the average ice thickness. The annual oceanic heat flux from the deep ocean and the maximum freezing rate and associated nearly constant minimum surface salinity flux did not vary significantly interannually. This also implies that the oceanic influence on the Arctic ice mass is minimal for the range of atmospheric variability tested.

  10. Assimilation of sea ice concentration data in the Arctic via DART/CICE5 in the CESM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.; Bitz, C. M.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hendricks, J.; Hoar, T. J.; Raeder, K.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic sea ice cover has been experiencing significant reduction in the past few decades. Climate models predict that the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in late summer within a few decades. Better sea ice prediction is crucial for regional and global climate prediction that are vital to human activities such as maritime shipping and subsistence hunting, as well as wildlife protection as animals face habitat loss. The physical processes involved with the persistence and re-emergence of sea ice cover are found to extend the predictability of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness at the regional scale up to several years. This motivates us to investigate sea ice predictability stemming from initial values of the sea ice cover. Data assimilation is a useful technique to combine observations and model forecasts to reconstruct the states of sea ice in the past and provide more accurate initial conditions for sea ice prediction. This work links the most recent version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.5 (CESM1.5) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The linked DART/CICE5 is ideal to assimilate multi-scale and multivariate sea ice observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The study is focused on the assimilation of SIC data that impact SIC, sea ice thickness, and snow thickness. The ensemble sea ice model states are constructed by introducing uncertainties in atmospheric forcing and key model parameters. The ensemble atmospheric forcing is a reanalysis product generated with DART and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). We also perturb two model parameters that are found to contribute significantly to the model uncertainty in previous studies. This study applies perfect model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to investigate data assimilation algorithms and post-processing methods. One of the ensemble members of a CICE5 free run is chosen as the truth. Daily synthetic

  11. Towards a Universal Calving Law: Modeling Ice Shelves Using Damage Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitcomb, M.; Bassis, J. N.; Price, S. F.; Lipscomb, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling iceberg calving from ice shelves and ice tongues is a particularly difficult problem in glaciology because of the wide range of observed calving rates. Ice shelves naturally calve large tabular icebergs at infrequent intervals, but may instead calve smaller bergs regularly or disintegrate due to hydrofracturing in warmer conditions. Any complete theory of iceberg calving in ice shelves must be able to generate realistic calving rate values depending on the magnitudes of the external forcings. Here we show that a simple damage evolution law, which represents crevasse distributions as a continuum field, produces reasonable estimates of ice shelf calving rates when added to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Our damage formulation is based on a linear stability analysis and depends upon the bulk stress and strain rate in the ice shelf, as well as the surface and basal melt rates. The basal melt parameter in our model enhances crevasse growth near the ice shelf terminus, leading to an increased iceberg production rate. This implies that increasing ocean temperatures underneath ice shelves will drive ice shelf retreat, as has been observed in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. We show that our model predicts broadly correct calving rates for ice tongues ranging in length from 10 km (Erebus) to over 100 km (Drygalski), by matching the computed steady state lengths to observations. In addition, we apply the model to idealized Antarctic ice shelves and show that we can also predict realistic ice shelf extents. Our damage mechanics model provides a promising, computationally efficient way to compute calving fluxes and links ice shelf stability to climate forcing.

  12. Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Dean, Samuel M.; Renwick, James A.

    2018-01-01

    The simulation of Antarctic sea ice in global climate models often does not agree with observations. In this study, we examine the compactness of sea ice, as well as the regional distribution of sea ice concentration, in climate models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and in satellite observations. We find substantial differences in concentration values between different sets of satellite observations, particularly at high concentrations, requiring careful treatment when comparing to models. As a fraction of total sea ice extent, models simulate too much loose, low-concentration sea ice cover throughout the year, and too little compact, high-concentration cover in the summer. In spite of the differences in physics between models, these tendencies are broadly consistent across the population of 40 CMIP5 simulations, a result not previously highlighted. Separating models with and without an explicit lateral melt term, we find that inclusion of lateral melt may account for overestimation of low-concentration cover. Targeted model experiments with a coupled ocean-sea ice model show that choice of constant floe diameter in the lateral melt scheme can also impact representation of loose ice. This suggests that current sea ice thermodynamics contribute to the inadequate simulation of the low-concentration regime in many models.

  13. On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, J. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall

  14. Wave-ice interaction, observed and modelled

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gemmrich, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    The need for wide-spread, up-to-date sea state predictions and observations in the emerging ice-free Arctic will further increase as the region will open up to marine operations. Wave models for arctic regions have to capture the additional wave physics associated with wave-ice interactions, and different prediction schemes have to be tested against observations. Here we present examples of spatial wave field parameters obtained from TerraSAR-X StripMap swaths in the southern Beaufort Sea taken as part of the "Arctic Sea State and Boundary Layer DRI". Fetch evolution of the significant wave height and length in open waters, and dominant wave lengths and the high frequency cut-off of the wave spectrum in ice are readily extracted from the SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data. A surprising result is that wave evolution in off-ice wind conditions is more rapidly than the fetch evolution in off-land cases, suggesting seeding of the wave field within the ice-covered region.

  15. An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, T.

    2008-12-01

    Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions

  16. A network model for characterizing brine channels in sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lieblappen, Ross M.; Kumar, Deip D.; Pauls, Scott D.; Obbard, Rachel W.

    2018-03-01

    The brine pore space in sea ice can form complex connected structures whose geometry is critical in the governance of important physical transport processes between the ocean, sea ice, and surface. Recent advances in three-dimensional imaging using X-ray micro-computed tomography have enabled the visualization and quantification of the brine network morphology and variability. Using imaging of first-year sea ice samples at in situ temperatures, we create a new mathematical network model to characterize the topology and connectivity of the brine channels. This model provides a statistical framework where we can characterize the pore networks via two parameters, depth and temperature, for use in dynamical sea ice models. Our approach advances the quantification of brine connectivity in sea ice, which can help investigations of bulk physical properties, such as fluid permeability, that are key in both global and regional sea ice models.

  17. Stationary Solutions of A One-dimensional Thermodynamic Radiative Sea Ice Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, P. D.; Feltham, D. L.

    A one-dimensional thermodynamic model of sea ice is coupled to a two-stream radi- ation model and the stationary (time-independent) solutions analysed. The stationary model represents the state of the sea ice subjected to persistent or slowly varying forc- ing. Two physically realisable stationary solutions (real and positive ice thickness) occur for a large range of positive oceanic heat flux ( 20,Wm-2). The two station- ary solutions are due to the two-stream radiation model, which allows radiation to be reflected at the ice-ocean interface. Thick ice ( 1,m) only absorbs radiation near its surface, whereas thin ice ( 0.1,m) absorbs radiation across its entire depth. The two stationary solutions are caused by these two different radiative regimes. The results of this analysis have relevance to the interpretation and implementation of thermody- namic models of sea ice and the interpretation of thickness data.

  18. Ice Shelf-Ocean Interactions Near Ice Rises and Ice Rumples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.; Rückamp, M.; Kleiner, T.

    2013-12-01

    The stability of ice shelves depends on the existence of embayments and is largely influenced by ice rises and ice rumples, which act as 'pinning-points' for ice shelf movement. Of additional critical importance are interactions between ice shelves and the water masses underlying them in ice shelf cavities, particularly melting and refreezing processes. The present study aims to elucidate the role of ice rises and ice rumples in the context of climate change impacts on Antarctic ice shelves. However, due to their smaller spatial extent, ice rumples react more sensitively to climate change than ice rises. Different forcings are at work and need to be considered separately as well as synergistically. In order to address these issues, we have decided to deal with the following three issues explicitly: oceanographic-, cryospheric and general topics. In so doing, we paid particular attention to possible interrelationships and feedbacks in a coupled ice-shelf-ocean system. With regard to oceanographic issues, we have applied the ocean circulation model ROMBAX to ocean water masses adjacent to and underneath a number of idealized ice shelf configurations: wide and narrow as well as laterally restrained and unrestrained ice shelves. Simulations were performed with and without small ice rises located close to the calving front. For larger configurations, the impact of the ice rises on melt rates at the ice shelf base is negligible, while for smaller configurations net melting rates at the ice-shelf base differ by a factor of up to eight depending on whether ice rises are considered or not. We employed the thermo-coupled ice flow model TIM-FD3 to simulate the effects of several ice rises and one ice rumple on the dynamics of ice shelf flow. We considered the complete un-grounding of the ice shelf in order to investigate the effect of pinning points of different characteristics (interior or near calving front, small and medium sized) on the resulting flow and stress fields

  19. Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

    2017-04-01

    The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled

  20. A Model of Icebergs and Sea Ice in a Joint Continuum Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VaÅková, Irena; Holland, David M.

    2017-11-01

    The ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, often present in front of outlet glaciers in Greenland or ice shelves in Antarctica, can have a profound effect on the dynamics of the ice-ocean system. The current inability to numerically model the ice mélange motivates a new modeling approach proposed here. A continuum sea-ice model is taken as a starting point and icebergs are represented as thick and compact pieces of sea ice held together by large tensile and shear strength, selectively introduced into the sea-ice rheology. In order to modify the rheology correctly, an iceberg tracking procedure is implemented within a semi-Lagrangian time-stepping scheme, designed to exactly preserve iceberg shape through time. With the proposed treatment, sea ice and icebergs are considered a single fluid with spatially varying rheological properties. Mutual interactions are thus automatically included without the need for further parametrization. An important advantage of the presented framework for an ice mélange model is its potential to be easily included within sea-ice components of existing climate models.

  1. Carbon Dioxide Transfer Through Sea Ice: Modelling Flux in Brine Channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, L.; Mitchelson-Jacob, G.; Hardman-Mountford, N.

    2010-12-01

    For many years sea ice was thought to act as a barrier to the flux of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. However, laboratory-based and in-situ observations suggest that while sea ice may in some circumstances reduce or prevent transfer (e.g. in regions of thick, superimposed multi-year ice), it may also be highly permeable (e.g. thin, first year ice) with some studies observing significant fluxes of CO2. Sea ice covered regions have been observed to act both as a sink and a source of atmospheric CO2 with the permeability of sea ice and direction of flux related to sea ice temperature and the presence of brine channels in the ice, as well as seasonal processes such as whether the ice is freezing or thawing. Brine channels concentrate dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as well as salinity and as these dense waters descend through both the sea ice and the surface ocean waters, they create a sink for CO2. Calcium carbonate (ikaite) precipitation in the sea ice is thought to enhance this process. Micro-organisms present within the sea ice will also contribute to the CO2 flux dynamics. Recent evidence of decreasing sea ice extent and the associated change from a multi-year ice to first-year ice dominated system suggest the potential for increased CO2 flux through regions of thinner, more porous sea ice. A full understanding of the processes and feedbacks controlling the flux in these regions is needed to determine their possible contribution to global CO2 levels in a future warming climate scenario. Despite the significance of these regions, the air-sea CO2 flux in sea ice covered regions is not currently included in global climate models. Incorporating this carbon flux system into Earth System models requires the development of a well-parameterised sea ice-air flux model. In our work we use the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, with a modification to incorporate the movement of CO2 through brine channels including the addition of DIC processes and ice algae production to

  2. Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

    2017-12-01

    Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

  3. Providing Real-time Sea Ice Modeling Support to the U.S. Coast Guard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allard, Richard; Dykes, James; Hebert, David; Posey, Pamela; Rogers, Erick; Wallcraft, Alan; Phelps, Michael; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Wang, Shouping; Geiszler, Dan

    2016-04-01

    The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) supported the U.S. Coast Guard Research Development Center (RDC) through a demonstration project during the summer and autumn of 2015. Specifically, a modeling system composed of a mesoscale atmospheric model, regional sea ice model, and regional wave model were loosely coupled to provide real-time 72-hr forecasts of environmental conditions for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas. The system components included a 2-km regional Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model, 15-km Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model, and a 5-km regional WAVEWATCH III wave model. The wave model utilized modeled sea ice concentration fields to incorporate the effects of sea ice on waves. The other modeling components assimilated atmosphere, ocean, and ice observations available from satellite and in situ sources. The modeling system generated daily 72-hr forecasts of synoptic weather (including visibility), ice drift, ice thickness, ice concentration and ice strength for missions within the economic exclusion zone off the coast of Alaska and a transit to the North Pole in support of the National Science Foundation GEOTRACES cruise. Model forecasts graphics were shared on a common web page with selected graphical products made available via ftp for bandwidth limited users. Model ice thickness and ice drift show very good agreement compared with Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Ice Mass Balance buoys. This demonstration served as a precursor to a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-ice modeling system under development. National Ice Center (NIC) analysts used these model data products (CICE and COAMPS) along with other existing model and satellite data to produce the predicted 48-hr position of the ice edge. The NIC served as a liaison with the RDC and NRL to provide feedback on the model predictions. This evaluation provides a baseline analysis of the current models for future comparison studies

  4. Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.

    2013-07-01

    We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

  5. Influence of surface morphology on the immersion mode ice nucleation efficiency of hematite particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiranuma, N.; Hoffmann, N.; Kiselev, A.; Dreyer, A.; Zhang, K.; Kulkarni, G.; Koop, T.; Möhler, O.

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, the effect of the morphological modification of aerosol particles with respect to heterogeneous ice nucleation is comprehensively investigated for laboratory-generated hematite particles as a model substrate for atmospheric dust particles. The surface-area-scaled ice nucleation efficiencies of monodisperse cubic hematite particles and milled hematite particles were measured with a series of expansion cooling experiments using the Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) cloud simulation chamber. Complementary offline characterization of physico-chemical properties of both hematite subsets were also carried out with scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectroscopy, dynamic light scattering (DLS), and an electro-kinetic particle charge detector to further constrain droplet-freezing measurements of hematite particles. Additionally, an empirical parameterization derived from our laboratory measurements was implemented in the single-column version of the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) to investigate the model sensitivity in simulated ice crystal number concentration on different ice nucleation efficiencies. From an experimental perspective, our results show that the immersion mode ice nucleation efficiency of milled hematite particles is almost an order of magnitude higher at -35.2 °C < T < -33.5 °C than that of the cubic hematite particles, indicating a substantial effect of morphological irregularities on immersion mode freezing. Our modeling results similarly show that the increased droplet-freezing rates of milled hematite particles lead to about one order magnitude higher ice crystal number in the upper troposphere than cubic hematite particles. Overall, our results suggest that the surface irregularities and associated active sites lead to greater ice activation through droplet freezing.

  6. Modelling sea ice formation in the Terra Nova Bay polynya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sansiviero, M.; Morales Maqueda, M. Á.; Fusco, G.; Aulicino, G.; Flocco, D.; Budillon, G.

    2017-02-01

    Antarctic sea ice is constantly exported from the shore by strong near surface winds that open leads and large polynyas in the pack ice. The latter, known as wind-driven polynyas, are responsible for significant water mass modification due to the high salt flux into the ocean associated with enhanced ice growth. In this article, we focus on the wind-driven Terra Nova Bay (TNB) polynya, in the western Ross Sea. Brine rejected during sea ice formation processes that occur in the TNB polynya densifies the water column leading to the formation of the most characteristic water mass of the Ross Sea, the High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). This water mass, in turn, takes part in the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), the densest water mass of the world ocean, which plays a major role in the global meridional overturning circulation, thus affecting the global climate system. A simple coupled sea ice-ocean model has been developed to simulate the seasonal cycle of sea ice formation and export within a polynya. The sea ice model accounts for both thermal and mechanical ice processes. The oceanic circulation is described by a one-and-a-half layer, reduced gravity model. The domain resolution is 1 km × 1 km, which is sufficient to represent the salient features of the coastline geometry, notably the Drygalski Ice Tongue. The model is forced by a combination of Era Interim reanalysis and in-situ data from automatic weather stations, and also by a climatological oceanic dataset developed from in situ hydrographic observations. The sensitivity of the polynya to the atmospheric forcing is well reproduced by the model when atmospheric in situ measurements are combined with reanalysis data. Merging the two datasets allows us to capture in detail the strength and the spatial distribution of the katabatic winds that often drive the opening of the polynya. The model resolves fairly accurately the sea ice drift and sea ice production rates in the TNB polynya, leading to

  7. Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urban, Nathan Mark

    The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

  8. Direct Comparisons of Ice Cloud Microphysical Properties Simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 with ARM SPartICus Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, C.; Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Diao, M.; Gettelman, A.

    2016-12-01

    Cirrus clouds in the upper troposphere play a key role in the Earth radiation budget, and their radiative forcing depends strongly on number concentration and size distribution of ice particles. In this study we evaluate the cloud microphysical properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4 (CAM5) against the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPartICus) observations over the ARM South Great Plain (SGP) site between January and June 2010. Model simulation is performed using specific dynamics to preserve prognostic meteorology (U, V, and T) close to GEOS-5 analysis. Model results collocated with SPartICus flight tracks spatially and temporally are directly compared with the observations. We compare CAM5 simulated ice crystal number concentration (Ni), ice particle size distribution, ice water content (IWC), and Ni co-variances with temperature and vertical velocity with the statistics from SPartICus observations. All analyses are restricted to T ≤ -40°C and in a 6°×6° area centered at SGP. Model sensitivity tests are performed with different ice nucleation mechanisms and with the effects of pre-existing ice crystals to reflect the uncertainties in cirrus parameterizations. In addition, different threshold size for autoconversion of cloud ice to snow (Dcs) is also tested. We find that (1) a distinctly high Ni (100-1000 L-1) often occurred in the observations but is significantly underestimated in the model, which may be due to the smaller relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) in the simulation that could suppress the homogeneous nucleation, (2) a positive correlation exists between Ni and vertical velocity variance (σw) at horizontal scales up to 50 km in the observation, and the model can reproduce this relationship but tends to underestimate Ni when σw is relatively small, (3) simulated Ni differs greatly among the sensitive experiments, and simulated IWC is also sensitive to the cirrus parameterizations but to a lesser extent. Moreover

  9. Modeling of Highly Instrumented Honeywell Turbofan Engine Tested with Ice Crystal Ingestion in the NASA Propulsion System Laboratory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veres, Joseph P.; Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Jones, Scott M.

    2016-01-01

    The Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL), an altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center, has been used to test a highly instrumented turbine engine at simulated altitude operating conditions. This is a continuation of the PSL testing that successfully duplicated the icing events that were experienced in a previous engine (serial LF01) during flight through ice crystal clouds, which was the first turbofan engine tested in PSL. This second model of the ALF502R-5A serial number LF11 is a highly instrumented version of the previous engine. The PSL facility provides a continuous cloud of ice crystals with controlled characteristics of size and concentration, which are ingested by the engine during operation at simulated altitudes. Several of the previous operating points tested in the LF01 engine were duplicated to confirm repeatability in LF11. The instrumentation included video cameras to visually illustrate the accretion of ice in the low pressure compressor (LPC) exit guide vane region in order to confirm the ice accretion, which was suspected during the testing of the LF01. Traditional instrumentation included static pressure taps in the low pressure compressor inner and outer flow path walls, as well as total pressure and temperature rakes in the low pressure compressor region. The test data was utilized to determine the losses and blockages due to accretion in the exit guide vane region of the LPC. Multiple data points were analyzed with the Honeywell Customer Deck. A full engine roll back point was modeled with the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) code. The mean line compressor flow analysis code with ice crystal modeling was utilized to estimate the parameters that indicate the risk of accretion, as well as to estimate the degree of blockage and losses caused by accretion during a full engine roll back point. The analysis provided additional validation of the icing risk parameters within the LPC, as well as the creation of models for

  10. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

    2017-09-01

    Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  11. ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ling, Chi-Hai; Parkinson, Claire L.

    1986-01-01

    A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

  12. Retrieving Ice Basal Motion Using the Hydrologically Coupled JPL/UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khakbaz, B.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.

    2011-12-01

    The study of basal sliding in ice sheets requires coupling ice-flow models with subglacial water flow. In fact, subglacial hydrology models can be used to model basal water-pressure explicitly and to generate basal sliding velocities. This study addresses the addition of a thin-film-based subglacial hydrologic module to the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) developed by JPL in collaboration with the University of California Irvine (UCI). The subglacial hydrology model follows the study of J. Johnson (2002) who assumed a non-arborscent distributed drainage system in the form of a thin film beneath ice sheets. The differential equation that arises from conservation of mass in the water system is solved numerically with the finite element method in order to obtain the spatial distribution of basal water over the study domain. The resulting sheet water thickness is then used to model the basal water-pressure and subsequently the basal sliding velocity. In this study, an introduction and preliminary results of the subglacial water flow and basal sliding velocity will be presented for the Pine Island Glacier west Antarctica.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program.

  13. A model of icebergs and sea ice in a joint continuum framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaňková, Irena; Holland, David M.

    2017-04-01

    The ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, often present in front of tidewater glaciers in Greenland or ice shelves in Antarctica, can have a profound effect on the dynamics of the ice-ocean system. The current inability to numerically model the ice mélange motivates a new modeling approach proposed here. A continuum sea-ice model is taken as a starting point and icebergs are represented as thick and compact pieces of sea ice held together by large tensile and shear strength selectively introduced into the sea ice rheology. In order to modify the rheology correctly, a semi-Lagrangian time stepping scheme is introduced and at each time step a Lagrangian grid is constructed such that iceberg shape is preserved exactly. With the proposed treatment, sea ice and icebergs are considered a single fluid with spatially varying rheological properties, mutual interactions are thus automatically included without the need of further parametrization. An important advantage of the presented framework for an ice mélange model is its potential to be easily included in existing climate models.

  14. An object-oriented, coprocessor-accelerated model for ice sheet simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.

    2013-12-01

    Recently, numerous models capable of modeling the thermo-dynamics of ice sheets have been developed within the ice sheet modeling community. Their capabilities have been characterized by a wide range of features with different numerical methods (finite difference or finite element), different implementations of the ice flow mechanics (shallow-ice, higher-order, full Stokes) and different treatments for the basal and coastal areas (basal hydrology, basal sliding, ice shelves). Shallow-ice models (SICOPOLIS, IcIES, PISM, etc) have been widely used for modeling whole ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) due to the relatively low computational cost of the shallow-ice approximation but higher order (ISSM, AIF) and full Stokes (Elmer/Ice) models have been recently used to model the Greenland ice sheet. The advance in processor speed and the decrease in cost for accessing large amount of memory and storage have undoubtedly been the driving force in the commoditization of models with higher capabilities, and the popularity of Elmer/Ice (http://elmerice.elmerfem.com) with an active user base is a notable representation of this trend. Elmer/Ice is a full Stokes model built on top of the multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/english/pages/elmer) which provides the full machinery for the complex finite element procedure and is fully parallel (mesh partitioning with OpenMPI communication). Elmer is mainly written in Fortran 90 and targets essentially traditional processors as the code base was not initially written to run on modern coprocessors (yet adding support for the recently introduced x86 based coprocessors is possible). Furthermore, a truly modular and object-oriented implementation is required for quick adaptation to fast evolving capabilities in hardware (Fortran 2003 provides an object-oriented programming model while not being clean and requiring a tricky refactoring of Elmer code). In this work, the object-oriented, coprocessor-accelerated finite element

  15. The effect of changing wind forcing on Antarctic ice shelf melting in high-resolution, global sea ice-ocean simulations with the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, Xylar; Price, Stephen; Petersen, Mark; Wolfe, Jonathan

    2017-04-01

    The capability for simulating sub-ice shelf circulation and submarine melting and freezing has recently been added to the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). With this new capability, we use an eddy permitting ocean model to conduct two sets of simulations in the spirit of Spence et al. (GRL, 41, 2014), who demonstrate increased warm water upwelling along the Antarctic coast in response to poleward shifting and strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly winds. These characteristics, symptomatic of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM), are projected to continue into the 21st century under anthropogenic climate change (Fyfe et al., J. Clim., 20, 2007). In our first simulation, we force the climate model using the standard CORE interannual forcing dataset (Large and Yeager; Clim. Dyn., 33, 2009). In our second simulation, we force our climate model using an altered version of CORE interannual forcing, based on the latter half of the full time series, which we take as a proxy for a future climate state biased towards a positive SAM. We compare ocean model states and sub-ice shelf melt rates with observations, exploring sources of model biases as well as the effects of the two forcing scenarios.

  16. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2010-08-01

    We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of streams in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  17. Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ivanova, Detelina P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Taylor, Karl E.

    Here, reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differencesmore » between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.« less

  18. Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases

    DOE PAGES

    Ivanova, Detelina P.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Taylor, Karl E.; ...

    2016-11-29

    Here, reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differencesmore » between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.« less

  19. Evaluation of high-resolution sea ice models on the basis of statistical and scaling properties of Arctic sea ice drift and deformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girard, L.; Weiss, J.; Molines, J. M.; Barnier, B.; Bouillon, S.

    2009-08-01

    Sea ice drift and deformation from models are evaluated on the basis of statistical and scaling properties. These properties are derived from two observation data sets: the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System (RGPS) and buoy trajectories from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). Two simulations obtained with the Louvain-la-Neuve Ice Model (LIM) coupled to a high-resolution ocean model and a simulation obtained with the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) were analyzed. Model ice drift compares well with observations in terms of large-scale velocity field and distributions of velocity fluctuations although a significant bias on the mean ice speed is noted. On the other hand, the statistical properties of ice deformation are not well simulated by the models: (1) The distributions of strain rates are incorrect: RGPS distributions of strain rates are power law tailed, i.e., exhibit "wild randomness," whereas models distributions remain in the Gaussian attraction basin, i.e., exhibit "mild randomness." (2) The models are unable to reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of the deformation fields: In the observations, ice deformation follows spatial and temporal scaling laws that express the heterogeneity and the intermittency of deformation. These relations do not appear in simulated ice deformation. Mean deformation in models is almost scale independent. The statistical properties of ice deformation are a signature of the ice mechanical behavior. The present work therefore suggests that the mechanical framework currently used by models is inappropriate. A different modeling framework based on elastic interactions could improve the representation of the statistical and scaling properties of ice deformation.

  20. Importance of aggregation and small ice crystals in cirrus clouds, based on observations and an ice particle growth model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Chai, Steven K.; Dong, Yayi; Arnott, W. Patrick; Hallett, John

    1993-01-01

    The 1 November 1986 FIRE I case study was used to test an ice particle growth model which predicts bimodal size spectra in cirrus clouds. The model was developed from an analytically based model which predicts the height evolution of monomodal ice particle size spectra from the measured ice water content (IWC). Size spectra from the monomodal model are represented by a gamma distribution, N(D) = N(sub o)D(exp nu)exp(-lambda D), where D = ice particle maximum dimension. The slope parameter, lambda, and the parameter N(sub o) are predicted from the IWC through the growth processes of vapor diffusion and aggregation. The model formulation is analytical, computationally efficient, and well suited for incorporation into larger models. The monomodal model has been validated against two other cirrus cloud case studies. From the monomodal size spectra, the size distributions which determine concentrations of ice particles less than about 150 mu m are predicted.

  1. Development and applications of a radar-attenuation model for polar ice sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacGregor, Joseph A.

    Modern ice sheets are currently responding to significant climatic forcings and undergoing ice-dynamics changes that are not yet well understood. Ice-penetrating radar surveys are often used to infer their basal condition (e.g., is the bed wet or dry?) and internal properties. However, such inferences typically require a model of the electromagnetic attenuation through the ice sheet. Here I first develop and test a radar-attenuation model that is based on a synthesis of existing laboratory measurements of the dielectric properties of ice. This synthesis shows that radar attenuation in polar ice has a strong non-linear temperature dependence and a weaker linear dependence on the concentrations of acid and sea-salt chloride. This model was tested at Siple Dome, West Antarctica, using ice-core-chemistry and borehole-temperature data, and the model agreed well with an existing radar-attenuation measurement. I then use this model to investigate the nature of radar detection of accreted ice over Lake Vostok, East Antarctica. My analysis of ice-core and radar data found that the observed reflection is likely due to a fabric contrast near the boundary between the dirty and clean accreted ices. This reflection mechanism is also consistent with the spatial pattern of detection of the reflection. In anticipation of the requirements of a thermomechanical ice-sheet model to predict the spatial variation of attenuation over Lake Vostok, I develop an accumulation-rate map for the Lake Vostok region using radar data, a steady-state flow-band model, and inverse methods. I found that accumulation rates there are not inversely correlated with surface elevation, that there is a broad maximum above the lake's northwestern corner, and a minimum above most of its eastern shoreline. Finally, I investigate the spatial variability of attenuation in an ice sheet, using the flowline that crosses through the Vostok ice core as an example. I use radar layers and ice-velocity and temperature

  2. The implementation of sea ice model on a regional high-resolution scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, Siva; Zakharov, Igor; Bobby, Pradeep; McGuire, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The availability of high-resolution atmospheric/ocean forecast models, satellite data and access to high-performance computing clusters have provided capability to build high-resolution models for regional ice condition simulation. The paper describes the implementation of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) on a regional scale at high resolution. The advantage of the model is its ability to include oceanographic parameters (e.g., currents) to provide accurate results. The sea ice simulation was performed over Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea to retrieve important parameters such as ice concentration, thickness, ridging, and drift. Two different forcing models, one with low resolution and another with a high resolution, were used for the estimation of sensitivity of model results. Sea ice behavior over 7 years was simulated to analyze ice formation, melting, and conditions in the region. Validation was based on comparing model results with remote sensing data. The simulated ice concentration correlated well with Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) data. Visual comparison of ice thickness trends estimated from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOS) agreed with the simulation for year 2010-2011.

  3. Testing the reliability of ice-cream cone model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Zonghao; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Chuanbing; Liu, Kai; Xue, Xianghui; Wang, Yuming; Wang, Shui

    2015-04-01

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)'s properties are important to not only the physical scene itself but space-weather prediction. Several models (such as cone model, GCS model, and so on) have been raised to get rid of the projection effects within the properties observed by spacecraft. According to SOHO/ LASCO observations, we obtain the 'real' 3D parameters of all the FFHCMEs (front-side full halo Coronal Mass Ejections) within the 24th solar cycle till July 2012, by the ice-cream cone model. Considering that the method to obtain 3D parameters from the CME observations by multi-satellite and multi-angle has higher accuracy, we use the GCS model to obtain the real propagation parameters of these CMEs in 3D space and compare the results with which by ice-cream cone model. Then we could discuss the reliability of the ice-cream cone model.

  4. Tidal Modulation of Ice-shelf Flow: a Viscous Model of the Ross Ice Shelf

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brunt, Kelly M.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.

    2014-01-01

    Three stations near the calving front of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, recorded GPS data through a full spring-neap tidal cycle in November 2005. The data revealed a diurnal horizontal motion that varied both along and transverse to the long-term average velocity direction, similar to tidal signals observed in other ice shelves and ice streams. Based on its periodicity, it was hypothesized that the signal represents a flow response of the Ross Ice Shelf to the diurnal tides of the Ross Sea. To assess the influence of the tide on the ice-shelf motion, two hypotheses were developed. The first addressed the direct response of the ice shelf to tidal forcing, such as forces due to sea-surface slopes or forces due to sub-ice-shelf currents. The second involved the indirect response of ice-shelf flow to the tidal signals observed in the ice streams that source the ice shelf. A finite-element model, based on viscous creep flow, was developed to test these hypotheses, but succeeded only in falsifying both hypotheses, i.e. showing that direct tidal effects produce too small a response, and indirect tidal effects produce a response that is not smooth in time. This nullification suggests that a combination of viscous and elastic deformation is required to explain the observations.

  5. Model helicopter performance degradation with simulated ice shapes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tinetti, Ana F.; Korkan, Kenneth D.

    1987-01-01

    An experimental program using a commercially available model helicopter has been conducted in the Texas A&M University Subsonic Wind Tunnel to investigate main rotor performance degradation due to generic ice. The simulated ice, including both primary and secondary formations, was scaled by chord from previously documented artificial ice accretions. Base and iced performance data were gathered as functions of fuselage incidence, blade collective pitch, main rotor rotational velocity, and freestream velocity. It was observed that the presence of simulated ice tends to decrease the lift to equivalent drag ratio, as well as thrust coefficient for the range of velocity ratios tested. Also, increases in torque coefficient due to the generic ice formations were observed. Evaluation of the data has indicated that the addition of roughness due to secondary ice formations is crucial for proper evaluation of the degradation in main rotor performance.

  6. Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial-interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet-ice-shelf model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, Sarah L.; Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel M.

    2018-05-01

    Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day) using the ice-sheet-ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and -2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (˜ 1.26 m) than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (˜ 0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations

  7. Using paleoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, M. A.; Phipps, S. J.; Roberts, J. L.; White, D.

    2016-12-01

    Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modeling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how paleoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A large, perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterizations of four key physical processes within ice sheet models: ice rheology, ice shelf calving, and the stress balances within ice sheets and ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Paleoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

  8. Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holland, David M.; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

  9. Modeling the effects of martian surface frost on ice table depth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, K. E.; McKay, Christopher P.; Heldmann, J. L.

    2015-11-01

    Ground ice has been observed in small fresh craters in the vicinity of the Viking 2 lander site (48°N, 134°E). To explain these observations, current models for ground ice invoke levels of atmospheric water of 20 precipitable micrometers - higher than observations. However, surface frost has been observed at the Viking 2 site and surface water frost and snow have been shown to have a stabilizing effect on Antarctic subsurface ice. A snow or frost cover provides a source of humidity that should reduce the water vapor gradient and hence retard the sublimation loss from subsurface ice. We have modeled this effect for the Viking 2 landing site with combined ground ice and surface frost models. Our model is driven by atmospheric output fields from the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Our modeling results show that the inclusion of a thin seasonal frost layer, present for a duration similar to that observed by the Viking Lander 2, produces ice table depths that are significantly shallower than a model that omits surface frost. When a maximum frost albedo of 0.35 was permitted, seasonal frost is present in our model from Ls = 182° to Ls = 16°, resulting in an ice table depth of 64 cm - which is 24 cm shallower than the frost-free scenario. The computed ice table depth is only slightly sensitive to the assumed maximum frost albedo or thickness in the model.

  10. Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kallen, E.; Crafoord, C.; Ghil, M.

    1979-01-01

    A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

  11. Impact of aerosol intrusions on sea-ice melting rates and the structure Arctic boundary layer clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotton, W.; Carrio, G.; Jiang, H.

    2003-04-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory sea-ice model (LANL CICE) was implemented into the real-time and research versions of the Colorado State University-Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS@CSU). The original version of CICE was modified in its structure to allow module communication in an interactive multigrid framework. In addition, some improvements have been made in the routines involved in the coupling, among them, the inclusion of iterative methods that consider variable roughness lengths for snow-covered ice thickness categories. This version of the model also includes more complex microphysics that considers the nucleation of cloud droplets, allowing the prediction of mixing ratios and number concentrations for all condensed water species. The real-time version of RAMS@CSU automatically processes the NASA Team SSMI F13 25km sea-ice coverage data; the data are objectively analyzed and mapped to the model grid configuration. We performed two types of cloud resolving simulations to assess the impact of the entrainment of aerosols from above the inversion on Arctic boundary layer clouds. The first series of numerical experiments corresponds to a case observed on May 4 1998 during the FIRE-ACE/SHEBA field experiment. Results indicate a significant impact on the microstructure of the simulated clouds. When assuming polluted initial profiles above the inversion, the liquid water fraction of the cloud monotonically decreases, the total condensate paths increases and downward IR tends to increase due to a significant increase in the ice water path. The second set of cloud resolving simulations focused on the evaluation of the potential effect of aerosol concentration above the inversion on melting rates during spring-summer period. For these multi-month simulations, the IFN and CCN profiles were also initialized assuming the 4 May profiles as benchmarks. Results suggest that increasing the aerosol concentrations above the boundary layer increases sea-ice melting

  12. Bimodal SLD Ice Accretion on a NACA 0012 Airfoil Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potapczuk, Mark; Tsao, Jen-Ching; King-Steen, Laura

    2016-01-01

    This presentation describes the results of ice accretion measurements on a NACA 0012 airfoil model, from the NASA Icing Research Tunnel, using an icing cloud composed of a bimodal distribution of Supercooled Large Droplets. The data consists of photographs, laser scans of the ice surface, and measurements of the mass of ice for each icing condition. The results of ice shapes accumulated as a result of exposure to an icing cloud with a bimodal droplet distribution were compared to the ice shapes resulting from an equivalent cloud composed of a droplet distribution with a standard bell curve shape.

  13. Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

    2016-02-01

    In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

  14. Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean : Climatology and impact on sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merino, Nacho; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gael; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Madec, Gurvan; Mathiot, Pierre; Tournadre, Jean

    2016-08-01

    Recent increase in Antarctic freshwater release to the Southern Ocean is suggested to contribute to change in water masses and sea ice. However, climate models differ in their representation of the freshwater sources. Recent improvements in altimetry-based detection of small icebergs and in estimates of the mass loss of Antarctica may help better constrain the values of Antarctic freshwater releases. We propose a model-based seasonal climatology of iceberg melt over the Southern Ocean using state-of-the-art observed glaciological estimates of the Antarctic mass loss. An improved version of a Lagrangian iceberg model is coupled with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea ice model and compared to small icebergs observations. Iceberg melt increases sea ice cover, about 10% in annual mean sea ice volume, and decreases sea surface temperature over most of the Southern Ocean, but with distinctive regional patterns. Our results underline the importance of improving the representation of Antarctic freshwater sources. This can be achieved by forcing ocean/sea ice models with a climatological iceberg fresh-water flux.

  15. Validation and Interpretation of a New Sea Ice Globice Dataset Using Buoys and the Cice Sea Ice Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flocco, D.; Laxon, S. W.; Feltham, D. L.; Haas, C.

    2011-12-01

    The GlobIce project has provided high resolution sea ice product datasets over the Arctic derived from SAR data in the ESA archive. The products are validated sea ice motion, deformation and fluxes through straits. GlobIce sea ice velocities, deformation data and sea ice concentration have been validated using buoy data provided by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP). Over 95% of the GlobIce and buoy data analysed fell within 5 km of each other. The GlobIce Eulerian image pair product showed a high correlation with buoy data. The sea ice concentration product was compared to SSM/I data. An evaluation of the validity of the GlobICE data will be presented in this work. GlobICE sea ice velocity and deformation were compared with runs of the CICE sea ice model: in particular the mass fluxes through the straits were used to investigate the correlation between the winter behaviour of sea ice and the sea ice state in the following summer.

  16. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  17. Transient sensitivities of sea ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago inferred from a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heimbach, P.; Losch, M.; Menemenlis, D.; Campin, J.; Hill, C.

    2008-12-01

    The sensitivity of sea-ice export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA), measured in terms of its solid freshwater export through Lancaster Sound, to changes in various elements of the ocean and sea-ice state, and to elements of the atmospheric forcing fields through time and space is assessed by means of a coupled ocean/sea-ice adjoint model. The adjoint model furnishes full spatial sensitivity maps (also known as Lagrange multipliers) of the export metric to a variety of model variables at any chosen point in time, providing the unique capability to quantify major drivers of sea-ice export variability. The underlying model is the MIT ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), which is coupled to a Hibler-type dynamic/thermodynamic sea-ice model. The configuration is based on the Arctic face of the ECCO3 high-resolution cubed-sphere model, but coarsened to 36-km horizontal grid spacing. The adjoint of the coupled system has been derived by means of automatic differentiation using the software tool TAF. Finite perturbation simulations are performed to check the information provided by the adjoint. The sea-ice model's performance in the presence of narrow straits is assessed with different sea-ice lateral boundary conditions. The adjoint sensitivity clearly exposes the role of the model trajectory and the transient nature of the problem. The complex interplay between forcing, dynamics, and boundary condition is demonstrated in the comparison between the different calculations. The study is a step towards fully coupled adjoint-based ocean/sea-ice state estimation at basin to global scales as part of the ECCO efforts.

  18. MODEL VERSION CONTROL FOR GREAT LAKES MODELS ON UNIX SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scientific results of the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Project were provided where atrazine was measured and modeled. The presentation also provided the model version control system which has been used for models at Grosse Ile for approximately a decade and contains various version...

  19. Inferring unknow boundary conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet by assimilating ICESat-1 and IceBridge altimetry intothe Ice Sheet System Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larour, E. Y.; Khazendar, A.; Seroussi, H. L.; Schlegel, N.; Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Rignot, E. J.; Morlighem, M.

    2014-12-01

    Altimetry signals from missions such as ICESat-1, CryoSat, EnviSat, as well as altimeters onboard Operation IceBridge provide vital insights into processes such as surface mass balance, mass transport and ice-flow dynamics. Historically however, ice-flow models have been focused on assimilating surface velocities from satellite-based radar observations, to infer properties such as basal friction or the position of the bedrock. Here, we leverage a new methodology based on automatic differentation of the Ice Sheet System Model to assimilate surface altimetry data into a reconstruction of the past decade of ice flow on the North Greenland area. We infer corrections to boundary conditions such as basal friction and surface mass balance, as well as corrections to the ice hardness, to best-match the observed altimetry record. We compare these corrections between glaciers such as Petermann Glacier, 79 North and Zacchariae Isstrom. The altimetry signals exhibit very different patterns between East and West, which translate into very different signatures for the inverted boundary conditions. This study gives us greater insights into what differentiates different basins, both in terms of mass transport and ice-flow dynamics, and what could bethe controlling mechanisms behind the very different evolutions of these basins.

  20. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

    2011-09-01

    We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

  1. Predicting the melting temperature of ice-Ih with only electronic structure information as input.

    PubMed

    Pinnick, Eric R; Erramilli, Shyamsunder; Wang, Feng

    2012-07-07

    The melting temperature of ice-Ih was calculated with only electronic structure information as input by creating a problem-specific force field. The force field, Water model by AFM for Ice and Liquid (WAIL), was developed with the adaptive force matching (AFM) method by fitting to post-Hartree-Fock quality forces obtained in quantum mechanics∕molecular mechanics calculations. WAIL predicts the ice-Ih melting temperature to be 270 K. The model also predicts the densities of ice and water, the temperature of maximum density of water, the heat of vaporizations, and the radial distribution functions for both ice and water in good agreement with experimental measurements. The non-dissociative WAIL model is very similar to a flexible version of the popular TIP4P potential and has comparable computational cost. By customizing to problem-specific configurations with the AFM approach, the resulting model is remarkably more accurate than any variants of TIP4P for simulating ice-Ih and water in the temperature range from 253 K and 293 K under ambient pressure.

  2. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takaya, Yuhei; Hirahara, Shoji; Yasuda, Tamaki; Matsueda, Satoko; Toyoda, Takahiro; Fujii, Yosuke; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsukawa, Chihiro; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Mori, Hirotoshi; Nagasawa, Ryoji; Kubo, Yutaro; Adachi, Noriyuki; Yamanaka, Goro; Kuragano, Tsurane; Shimpo, Akihiko; Maeda, Shuhei; Ose, Tomoaki

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

  3. Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

    2014-05-01

    The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

  4. Evaluating and improving cloud phase in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 using spaceborne lidar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kay, Jennifer E.; Bourdages, Line; Miller, Nathaniel B.; Morrison, Ariel; Yettella, Vineel; Chepfer, Helene; Eaton, Brian

    2016-04-01

    Spaceborne lidar observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite are used to evaluate cloud amount and cloud phase in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the atmospheric component of a widely used state-of-the-art global coupled climate model (Community Earth System Model). By embedding a lidar simulator within CAM5, the idiosyncrasies of spaceborne lidar cloud detection and phase assignment are replicated. As a result, this study makes scale-aware and definition-aware comparisons between model-simulated and observed cloud amount and cloud phase. In the global mean, CAM5 has insufficient liquid cloud and excessive ice cloud when compared to CALIPSO observations. Over the ice-covered Arctic Ocean, CAM5 has insufficient liquid cloud in all seasons. Having important implications for projections of future sea level rise, a liquid cloud deficit contributes to a cold bias of 2-3°C for summer daily maximum near-surface air temperatures at Summit, Greenland. Over the midlatitude storm tracks, CAM5 has excessive ice cloud and insufficient liquid cloud. Storm track cloud phase biases in CAM5 maximize over the Southern Ocean, which also has larger-than-observed seasonal variations in cloud phase. Physical parameter modifications reduce the Southern Ocean cloud phase and shortwave radiation biases in CAM5 and illustrate the power of the CALIPSO observations as an observational constraint. The results also highlight the importance of using a regime-based, as opposed to a geographic-based, model evaluation approach. More generally, the results demonstrate the importance and value of simulator-enabled comparisons of cloud phase in models used for future climate projection.

  5. Modeling Pluto's Ice-Rich Surface and Its Interaction with Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Q.; Hu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Recent discoveries made available through NASA's New Horizon mission revealed a new world on Pluto with a plateau of "young" surface, the Sputnik Planum. It is a gigantic reservoir of volatile ice on top of an impact basin. The reason of such a high level of concentration of volatile ice is yet unknown. We are actively looking into explanations through atmospheric models and ice sheet models. Apart from the quantity of ice on SP, its surface age constrained by impact flux models to under 10Myr is significantly different from other parts of Pluto. Convection of solid nitrogen ice has been proposed as a viable cause. We endeavor to explore other possibilities that may have jointly contributed to this phenomena, including atmospheric condensation, ice sheet evolution, etc. Unique rheological properties of nitrogen ice, which is thought to dominate the Sputnik Planum, may hold the key to answering our questions. They are soft and easy to deform under its own weight even at Pluto's surface temperature of around 40K. Based on our initial simulations with numerical ice sheet models, we propose that once a crater is created on the Sputnik Planum, deformation under internal stress kicks in as a primary mechanism to flatten out craters. This could be done in a time scale of 100,000 years, significantly shorter than the maximum surface age contrained by crater densitiess models. As the surface arpproaches a flat state, such mechanism becomes weaker. The surface feature is then dominated by convection.

  6. Investigation of Controls on Ice Dynamics in Northeast Greenland from Ice-Thickness Change Record Using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.

    2015-12-01

    We present a new, complete ice thickness change reconstruction of the NE sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1978-2014, partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics. Elevation changes are computed from all available stereoscopic DEMs, and laser altimetry data (ICESat, ATM, LVIS). Surface Mass Balance and firn-compaction estimates are from RACMO2.3. Originating nearly at the divide of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), the dynamically active North East Ice Stream (NEGIS) is capable of rapidly transmitting ice-marginal forcing far inland. Thus, NEGIS provides a possible mechanism for a rapid drawdown of ice from the ice sheet interior as marginal warming, thinning and retreat continues. Our altimetry record shows accelerating dynamic thinning of Zachariæ Isstrom, initially limited to the deepest part of the fjord near the calving front (1978-2000) and then extending at least 75 km inland. At the same time, changes over the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (N79) Glacier are negligible. We also detect localized large dynamic changes at higher elevations on the ice sheet. These thickness changes, often occurring at the onset of fast flow, could indicate rapid variations of basal lubrication due to rerouting of subglacial drainage. We investigate the possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal pattern of ice sheet elevation changes using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This work build on our previous studies examining the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to key fields, including ice viscosity, basal drag. We assimilate the new altimetry record into ISSM to improve the reconstruction of basal friction and ice viscosity. Finally, airborne geophysical (gravity, magnetic) and ice-penetrating radar data is examined to identify the potential geologic controls on the ice thickness change pattern. Our study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness changes for the entire NEGIS drainage basin during

  7. Integrated Farm System Model Version 4.3 and Dairy Gas Emissions Model Version 3.3 Software development and distribution

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Modeling routines of the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM version 4.2) and Dairy Gas Emission Model (DairyGEM version 3.2), two whole-farm simulation models developed and maintained by USDA-ARS, were revised with new components for: (1) simulation of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions gene...

  8. Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potapczuk, M. G.; Reinmann, J. J.

    1991-01-01

    A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focussed on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced airfoil aerodynamics is examined.

  9. Icing simulation: A survey of computer models and experimental facilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potapczuk, M. G.; Reinmann, J. J.

    1991-01-01

    A survey of the current methods for simulation of the response of an aircraft or aircraft subsystem to an icing encounter is presented. The topics discussed include a computer code modeling of aircraft icing and performance degradation, an evaluation of experimental facility simulation capabilities, and ice protection system evaluation tests in simulated icing conditions. Current research focused on upgrading simulation fidelity of both experimental and computational methods is discussed. The need for the increased understanding of the physical processes governing ice accretion, ice shedding, and iced aerodynamics is examined.

  10. Modeling the evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from MIS 3 to the Last Glacial Maximum: an approach using sea level modeling and ice flow dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weisenberg, J.; Pico, T.; Birch, L.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    The history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum ( 26 ka; LGM) is constrained by geological evidence of ice margin retreat in addition to relative sea-level (RSL) records in both the near and far field. Nonetheless, few observations exist constraining the ice sheet's extent across the glacial build-up phase preceding the LGM. Recent work correcting RSL records along the U.S. mid-Atlantic dated to mid-MIS 3 (50-35 ka) for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) infer that the Laurentide Ice Sheet grew by more than three-fold in the 15 ky leading into the LGM. Here we test the plausibility of a late and extremely rapid glaciation by driving a high-resolution ice sheet model, based on a nonlinear diffusion equation for the ice thickness. We initialize this model at 44 ka with the mid-MIS 3 ice sheet configuration proposed by Pico et al. (2017), GIA-corrected basal topography, and mass balance representative of mid-MIS 3 conditions. These simulations predict rapid growth of the eastern Laurentide Ice Sheet, with rates consistent with achieving LGM ice volumes within 15 ky. We use these simulations to refine the initial ice configuration and present an improved and higher resolution model for North American ice cover during mid-MIS 3. In addition we show that assumptions of ice loads during the glacial phase, and the associated reconstructions of GIA-corrected basal topography, produce a bias that can underpredict ice growth rates in the late stages of the glaciation, which has important consequences for our understanding of the speed limit for ice growth on glacial timescales.

  11. Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by AOMIP Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Mark; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Nguyen, An T.; Lindsay, Ron; Haas, Christian; Zhang, Jinlun; Diansky, Nimolay; Kwok, Ron; Maslowski, Wieslaw; hide

    2011-01-01

    We compare results from six AOMIP model simulations with estimates of sea ice thickness obtained from ICESat, moored and submarine-based upward looking sensors, airborne electromagnetic measurements and drill holes. Our goal is to find patterns of model performance to guide model improvement. The satellite data is pan-arctic from 2004-2008, ice-draft data is from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea from 1992-2008 and from submarines from 1975-2000. The drill hole data are from the Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas from 1982-1986 and from coastal stations from 1998-2009. While there are important caveats when comparing modeled results with measurements from different platforms and time periods such as these, the models agree well with moored ULS data. In general, the AOMIP models underestimate the thickness of measured ice thicker than about 2 m and overestimate thickness of ice thinner than 2 m. The simulated results are poor over the fast ice and marginal seas of the Siberian shelves. Averaging over all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observed thickness are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

  12. Sea ice effects in a spectral wave model: principles and practical implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutin, G.; Ardhuin, F.; Girard-Ardhuin, F.; Dumont, D.; Sévigny, C.

    2016-12-01

    Numerical wave models have their largest errors around sea ice, and their accuracy is generally unknown in the ice as very few data are available. This is largely because they do not, or in a coarse way, take into account the interactions of waves and sea ice, and because the necessary information about sea ice properties is not readily available. Recent progress have expanded our knowledge of wave scattering by sea ice as well as several dissipation processes, highlighting the need to include ice thickness and information on the ice floes size. Starting from a consistent representation of energy and dispersion in the presence of sea ice, we have redefined a set of self-consistent dissipation and scattering parameterizations for the WAVEWATCH III model which is expected to apply to a variety of ice conditions with the exception of forming ice. In our model the ice is treated as a single layer that can be fractured in many floes expected to be equivalent to circular floes with a power law distribution of diameters that is defined from the maximum diameter Dmax and a fragility parameter. This layer of ice induces a dissipation of the wave energy through basal friction (Stopa et al. The Cryosphere, 2016) and secondary creep associated with ice flexure (Cole et al. 1998), in addition to an energy-conserving scattering modeled following Kohout and Meylan (2006). The ice thickness and concentration are taken uniform over a model grid cell, and are typically provided by model products or satellite data, and are not affected by the waves. The wave model results are used to update Dmax by a probabilistic evaluation of ice break-up by the waves. This process introduces an interesting feedback on the wave scattering and dissipation. The combination of dissipation and scattering leads to spatial patterns in the wave height and directional spreading of the wave field that can be easily tested with in situ or remote sensing data (Sutherland and Gascard GRL 2016, Ardhuin et al

  13. Investigating ice nucleation in cirrus clouds with an aerosol-enabled Multiscale Modeling Framework

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Chengzhu; Wang, Minghuai; Morrison, H.; ...

    2014-11-06

    In this study, an aerosol-dependent ice nucleation scheme [Liu and Penner, 2005] has been implemented in an aerosol-enabled multi-scale modeling framework (PNNL MMF) to study ice formation in upper troposphere cirrus clouds through both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. The MMF model represents cloud scale processes by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each vertical column of a GCM grid. By explicitly linking ice nucleation to aerosol number concentration, CRM-scale temperature, relative humidity and vertical velocity, the new MMF model simulates the persistent high ice supersaturation and low ice number concentration (10 to 100/L) at cirrus temperatures. The low ice numbermore » is attributed to the dominance of heterogeneous nucleation in ice formation. The new model simulates the observed shift of the ice supersaturation PDF towards higher values at low temperatures following homogeneous nucleation threshold. The MMF models predict a higher frequency of midlatitude supersaturation in the Southern hemisphere and winter hemisphere, which is consistent with previous satellite and in-situ observations. It is shown that compared to a conventional GCM, the MMF is a more powerful model to emulate parameters that evolve over short time scales such as supersaturation. Sensitivity tests suggest that the simulated global distribution of ice clouds is sensitive to the ice nucleation schemes and the distribution of sulfate and dust aerosols. Simulations are also performed to test empirical parameters related to auto-conversion of ice crystals to snow. Results show that with a value of 250 μm for the critical diameter, Dcs, that distinguishes ice crystals from snow, the model can produce good agreement to the satellite retrieved products in terms of cloud ice water path and ice water content, while the total ice water is not sensitive to the specification of Dcs value.« less

  14. Regular network model for the sea ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic.

    PubMed

    Müller-Stoffels, Marc; Wackerbauer, Renate

    2011-03-01

    The Arctic Ocean and sea ice form a feedback system that plays an important role in the global climate. The complexity of highly parameterized global circulation (climate) models makes it very difficult to assess feedback processes in climate without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics is understood. We introduce a two-dimensional energy-based regular network model to investigate feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The model includes the nonlinear aspect of the ice-water phase transition, a nonlinear diffusive energy transport within a heterogeneous ice-ocean lattice, and spatiotemporal atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the surfaces. First results for a horizontally homogeneous ice-ocean layer show bistability and related hysteresis between perennial ice and perennial open water for varying atmospheric heat influx. Seasonal ice cover exists as a transient phenomenon. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice.

  15. The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

    2014-05-01

    . (2001): Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5549), 2130-6. doi:10.1126/science.1065680 Bügelmayer, M., Roche, D.M., Renssen, H. (2014): How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? - A model study with a fully coupled ice sheet-climate model. The Cryosphere Discussions 8, 187-228. Haigh, J. D. (1996): The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. Jongma, J.I., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Renssen, H., (2009): The effect of dynamic-thermodynamic icebergs on the Southern Ocean climate in a three-dimensional model. Ocean Modelling 26, 104-113. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Muscheler, R., & Branch, R. (2006): Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing. Climate of the Past, 2, 79-90. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C.(2001): Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 31943-31964, doi:10.1029/2001JD900232. Roche, D.M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., Ritz, C. (2013): Adding a dynamical cryosphere into iLOVECLIM (version 1.0) - Part 1: Coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 6, 5215-5249.

  16. Deciphering the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

    2016-04-01

    Glacial geologists need ice sheet-scale chronological reconstructions of former ice extent to set individual records in a wider context and compare interpretations of ice sheet response to records of past environmental changes. Ice sheet modellers require empirical reconstructions on size and volume of past ice sheets that are fully documented, specified in time and include uncertainty estimates for model validation or constraints. Motivated by these demands, in 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to compile and archive all published dates relevant to constraining the build-up and retreat of the last Eurasian ice sheets, including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets (BIIS, SIS and SBKIS respectively). Over 5000 dates were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent, with uncertainty bounds, every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago and at four additional periods back to 40 kyr ago. Ten years after the idea for a database was conceived, the first version of results (DATED-1) has now been released (Hughes et al. 2016). We observe that: i) both the BIIS and SBKIS achieve maximum extent, and commence retreat earlier than the larger SIS; ii) the eastern terrestrial margin of the SIS reached its maximum extent up to 7000 years later than the westernmost marine margin; iii) the combined maximum ice volume (~24 m sea-level equivalent) was reached c. 21 ka; iv) large uncertainties exist; predominantly across marine sectors (e.g. the timing of coalescence and separation of the SIS and BKIS) but also in well-studied areas due to conflicting yet equally robust data. In just three years since the DATED-1 census (1 January 2013), the volume of new information (from both dates and mapped glacial geomorphology) has grown significantly (~1000 new dates). Here, we present the DATED-1 results in the context of the

  17. On the nature of the sea ice albedo feedback in simple models.

    PubMed

    Moon, W; Wettlaufer, J S

    2014-08-01

    We examine the nature of the ice-albedo feedback in a long-standing approach used in the dynamic-thermodynamic modeling of sea ice. The central issue examined is how the evolution of the ice area is treated when modeling a partial ice cover using a two-category-thickness scheme; thin sea ice and open water in one category and "thick" sea ice in the second. The problem with the scheme is that the area evolution is handled in a manner that violates the basic rules of calculus, which leads to a neglected area evolution term that is equivalent to neglecting a leading-order latent heat flux. We demonstrate the consequences by constructing energy balance models with a fractional ice cover and studying them under the influence of increased radiative forcing. It is shown that the neglected flux is particularly important in a decaying ice cover approaching the transitions to seasonal or ice-free conditions. Clearly, a mishandling of the evolution of the ice area has leading-order effects on the ice-albedo feedback. Accordingly, it may be of considerable importance to reexamine the relevant climate model schemes and to begin the process of converting them to fully resolve the sea ice thickness distribution in a manner such as remapping, which does not in principle suffer from the pathology we describe.

  18. On the nature of the sea ice albedo feedback in simple models

    PubMed Central

    Moon, W; Wettlaufer, J S

    2014-01-01

    We examine the nature of the ice-albedo feedback in a long-standing approach used in the dynamic-thermodynamic modeling of sea ice. The central issue examined is how the evolution of the ice area is treated when modeling a partial ice cover using a two-category-thickness scheme; thin sea ice and open water in one category and “thick” sea ice in the second. The problem with the scheme is that the area evolution is handled in a manner that violates the basic rules of calculus, which leads to a neglected area evolution term that is equivalent to neglecting a leading-order latent heat flux. We demonstrate the consequences by constructing energy balance models with a fractional ice cover and studying them under the influence of increased radiative forcing. It is shown that the neglected flux is particularly important in a decaying ice cover approaching the transitions to seasonal or ice-free conditions. Clearly, a mishandling of the evolution of the ice area has leading-order effects on the ice-albedo feedback. Accordingly, it may be of considerable importance to reexamine the relevant climate model schemes and to begin the process of converting them to fully resolve the sea ice thickness distribution in a manner such as remapping, which does not in principle suffer from the pathology we describe. PMID:26213674

  19. Effect of different implementations of the same ice history in GIA modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barletta, V. R.; Bordoni, A.

    2013-11-01

    This study shows the effect of changing the way ice histories are implemented in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) codes to solve the sea level equation. The ice history models are being constantly improved and are provided in different formats. The overall algorithmic design of the sea-level equation solver often forces to implement the ice model in a representation that differs from the one originally provided. We show that using different representations of the same ice model gives important differences and artificial contributions to the sea level estimates, both at global and at regional scale. This study is not a speculative exercise. The ICE-5G model adopted in this work is widely used in present day sea-level analysis, but discrepancies between the results obtained by different groups for the same ice models still exist, and it was the effort to set a common reference for the sea-level community that inspired this work. Understanding this issue is important to be able to reduce the artefacts introduced by a non-suitable ice model representation. This is especially important when developing new GIA models, since neglecting this problem can easily lead to wrong alignment of the ice and sea-level histories, particularly close to the deglaciation areas, like Antarctica.

  20. Importance of Chemical Composition of Ice Nuclei on the Formation of Arctic Ice Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keita, Setigui Aboubacar; Girard, Eric

    2016-09-01

    Ice clouds play an important role in the Arctic weather and climate system but interactions between aerosols, clouds and radiation remain poorly understood. Consequently, it is essential to fully understand their properties and especially their formation process. Extensive measurements from ground-based sites and satellite remote sensing reveal the existence of two Types of Ice Clouds (TICs) in the Arctic during the polar night and early spring. TICs-1 are composed by non-precipitating small (radar-unseen) ice crystals of less than 30 μm in diameter. The second type, TICs-2, are detected by radar and are characterized by a low concentration of large precipitating ice crystals ice crystals (>30 μm). To explain these differences, we hypothesized that TIC-2 formation is linked to the acidification of aerosols, which inhibits the ice nucleating properties of ice nuclei (IN). As a result, the IN concentration is reduced in these regions, resulting to a lower concentration of larger ice crystals. Water vapor available for deposition being the same, these crystals reach a larger size. Current weather and climate models cannot simulate these different types of ice clouds. This problem is partly due to the parameterizations implemented for ice nucleation. Over the past 10 years, several parameterizations of homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation on IN of different chemical compositions have been developed. These parameterizations are based on two approaches: stochastic (that is nucleation is a probabilistic process, which is time dependent) and singular (that is nucleation occurs at fixed conditions of temperature and humidity and time-independent). The best approach remains unclear. This research aims to better understand the formation process of Arctic TICs using recently developed ice nucleation parameterizations. For this purpose, we have implemented these ice nucleation parameterizations into the Limited Area version of the Global Multiscale Environmental Model

  1. Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenaerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

  2. Scaling properties of Arctic sea ice deformation in high-resolution viscous-plastic sea ice models and satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

    2017-04-01

    Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very high grid resolution can resolve leads and deformation rates that are localised along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1-km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small scale sea-ice deformations in the Central Arctic are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS). A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids determines the spatial and the temporal scaling as well as the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modelled sea ice deformation implies multi-fractality. The spatial scaling is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling and its coupling to temporal scales with satellite observations and models with the modern elasto-brittle rheology challenges previous results with VP models at coarse resolution where no such scaling was found. The temporal scaling analysis, however, shows that the VP model does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

  3. A Mathematical Model of Melt Lake Development on an Ice Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzzard, S. C.; Feltham, D. L.; Flocco, D.

    2018-02-01

    The accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. Melt lakes have been implicated in ice shelf collapse; Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf was observed to have a large amount of surface melt lakes present preceding its collapse in 2002. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, cause habitat loss and contribute to sea level rise through the acceleration of tributary glaciers. We present a mathematical model of a surface melt lake on an idealized ice shelf. The model incorporates a calculation of the ice shelf surface energy balance, heat transfer through the firn, the production and percolation of meltwater into the firn, the formation of ice lenses, and the development and refreezing of surface melt lakes. The model is applied to the Larsen C Ice Shelf, where melt lakes have been observed. This region has warmed several times the global average over the last century and the Larsen C firn layer could become saturated with meltwater by the end of the century. When forced with weather station data, our model produces surface melting, meltwater accumulation, and melt lake development consistent with observations. We examine the sensitivity of lake formation to uncertain parameters and provide evidence of the importance of processes such as lateral meltwater transport. We conclude that melt lakes impact surface melt and firn density and warrant inclusion in dynamic-thermodynamic models of ice shelf evolution within climate models, of which our model could form the basis for the thermodynamic component.

  4. Online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.; Dumas, Christophe; Paillard, Didier

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents the inclusion of an online dynamical downscaling of temperature and precipitation within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM v1.1. We describe the following methodology to generate temperature and precipitation fields on a 40 km × 40 km Cartesian grid of the Northern Hemisphere from the T21 native atmospheric model grid. Our scheme is not grid specific and conserves energy and moisture in the same way as the original climate model. We show that we are able to generate a high-resolution field which presents a spatial variability in better agreement with the observations compared to the standard model. Although the large-scale model biases are not corrected, for selected model parameters, the downscaling can induce a better overall performance compared to the standard version on both the high-resolution grid and on the native grid. Foreseen applications of this new model feature include the improvement of ice sheet model coupling and high-resolution land surface models.

  5. A Revised Validation Process for Ice Accretion Codes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Porter, Christopher E.

    2017-01-01

    A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from the latest LEWICE release, version 3.5. This program differs from previous releases in its ability to model mixed phase and ice crystal conditions such as those encountered inside an engine. It also has expanded capability to use structured grids and a new capability to use results from unstructured grid flow solvers. A quantitative comparison of the results against a database of ice shapes that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed. This paper will extend the comparison of ice shapes between LEWICE 3.5 and experimental data from a previous paper. Comparisons of lift and drag are made between experimentally collected data from experimentally obtained ice shapes and simulated (CFD) data on simulated (LEWICE) ice shapes. Comparisons are also made between experimentally collected and simulated performance data on select experimental ice shapes to ensure the CFD solver, FUN3D, is valid within the flight regime. The results show that the predicted results are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

  6. Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

    2016-12-01

    Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

  7. River predisposition to ice jams: a simplified geospatial model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Munck, Stéphane; Gauthier, Yves; Bernier, Monique; Chokmani, Karem; Légaré, Serge

    2017-07-01

    Floods resulting from river ice jams pose a great risk to many riverside municipalities in Canada. The location of an ice jam is mainly influenced by channel morphology. The goal of this work was therefore to develop a simplified geospatial model to estimate the predisposition of a river channel to ice jams. Rather than predicting the timing of river ice breakup, the main question here was to predict where the broken ice is susceptible to jam based on the river's geomorphological characteristics. Thus, six parameters referred to potential causes for ice jams in the literature were initially selected: presence of an island, narrowing of the channel, high sinuosity, presence of a bridge, confluence of rivers, and slope break. A GIS-based tool was used to generate the aforementioned factors over regular-spaced segments along the entire channel using available geospatial data. An ice jam predisposition index (IJPI) was calculated by combining the weighted optimal factors. Three Canadian rivers (province of Québec) were chosen as test sites. The resulting maps were assessed from historical observations and local knowledge. Results show that 77 % of the observed ice jam sites on record occurred in river sections that the model considered as having high or medium predisposition. This leaves 23 % of false negative errors (missed occurrence). Between 7 and 11 % of the highly predisposed river sections did not have an ice jam on record (false-positive cases). Results, limitations, and potential improvements are discussed.

  8. Sensitivity analysis for the coupling of a subglacial hydrology model with a 3D ice-sheet model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertagna, L.; Perego, M.; Gunzburger, M.; Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.

    2017-12-01

    When studying the movement of ice sheets, one of the most important factors that influence the velocity of the ice is the amount of friction against the bedrock. Usually, this is modeled by a friction coefficient that may depend on the bed geometry and other quantities, such as the temperature and/or water pressure at the ice-bedrock interface. These quantities are often assumed to be known (either by indirect measurements or by means of parameter estimation) and constant in time. Here, we present a 3D computational model for the simulation of the ice dynamics which incorporates a 2D model proposed by Hewitt (2011) for the subglacial water pressure. The hydrology model is fully coupled with the Blatter-Pattyn model for the ice sheet flow, as the subglacial water pressure appears in the expression for the ice friction coefficient, and the ice velocity appears as a source term in the hydrology model. We will present results on real geometries, and perform a sensitivity analysis with respect to the hydrology model parameters.

  9. Processes controlling surface, bottom and lateral melt of Arctic sea ice in a state of the art sea ice model.

    PubMed

    Tsamados, Michel; Feltham, Daniel; Petty, Alek; Schroeder, David; Flocco, Daniela

    2015-10-13

    We present a modelling study of processes controlling the summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover. We perform a sensitivity study and focus our interest on the thermodynamics at the ice-atmosphere and ice-ocean interfaces. We use the Los Alamos community sea ice model CICE, and additionally implement and test three new parametrization schemes: (i) a prognostic mixed layer; (ii) a three equation boundary condition for the salt and heat flux at the ice-ocean interface; and (iii) a new lateral melt parametrization. Recent additions to the CICE model are also tested, including explicit melt ponds, a form drag parametrization and a halodynamic brine drainage scheme. The various sea ice parametrizations tested in this sensitivity study introduce a wide spread in the simulated sea ice characteristics. For each simulation, the total melt is decomposed into its surface, bottom and lateral melt components to assess the processes driving melt and how this varies regionally and temporally. Because this study quantifies the relative importance of several processes in driving the summer melt of sea ice, this work can serve as a guide for future research priorities. © 2015 The Author(s).

  10. Land-total and Ocean-total Precipitation and Evaporation from a Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Covey, Curt; Lucas, Donald D.; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2016-03-02

    This document presents the large scale water budget statistics of a perturbed input-parameter ensemble of atmospheric model runs. The model is Version 5.1.02 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). These runs are the “C-Ensemble” described by Qian et al., “Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5” (Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System, 2015). As noted by Qian et al., the simulations are “AMIP type” with temperature and sea ice boundary conditions chosen to match surface observations for the five year period 2000-2004. There are 1100 ensemble members in additionmore » to one run with default inputparameter values.« less

  11. Computer Modeling of the Thermal Conductivity of Cometary Ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bunch, Theodore E.; Wilson, Michael A.; Pohorille, Andrew

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of this research was to estimate the thermal conductivity of cometry ices from computer simulations of model amorphous ices. This was divided into four specific tasks: (1) Generating samples of amorphous water ices at different microporosities; (2) Comparing the resulting molecular structures of the ices with experimental results, for those densities where data was available; (3) Calculating the thermal conductivities of liquid water and bulk amorphous ices and comparing these results with experimentally determined thermal conductivities; and (4) Investigating how the thermal conductivity of amorphous ice depends upon the microscopic porosity of the samples. The thermal conductivity was found to be only weakly dependent on the microstructure of the amorphous ice. In general, the amorphous ices were found to have thermal conductivities of the same order of magnitude as liquid water. This is in contradiction to recent experimental estimates of the thermal conductivity of amorphous ice, and it is suggested that the extremely low value obtained experimentally is due to larger-scale defects in the ice, such as cracks, but it is not an intrinsic property of the bulk amorphous ice.

  12. A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Turner, Adrian Keith

    Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooledmore » water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).« less

  13. Progress on wave-ice interactions: satellite observations and model parameterizations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ardhuin, Fabrice; Boutin, Guillaume; Dumont, Dany; Stopa, Justin; Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny; Accensi, Mickael

    2017-04-01

    In the open ocean, numerical wave models have their largest errors near sea ice, and, until recently, virtually no wave data was available in the sea ice to. Further, wave-ice interaction processes may play an important role in the Earth system. In particular, waves may break up an ice layer into floes, with significant impact on air-sea fluxes. With thinner Arctic ice, this process may contribut to the growing similarity between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. In return, the ice has a strong damping impact on the waves that is highly variable and not understood. Here we report progress on parameterizations of waves interacting with a single ice layer, as implemented in the WAVEWATCH III model (WW3 Development Group, 2016), and based on few in situ observations, but extensive data derived from Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs). Our parameterizations combine three processes. First a parameterization for the energy-conserving scattering of waves by ice floes (assuming isotropic back-scatter), which has very little effect on dominant waves of periods larger than 7 s, consistent with the observed narrow directional spectra and short travel times. Second, we implemented a basal friction below the ice layer (Stopa et al. The Cryosphere, 2016). Third, we use a secondary creep associated with ice flexure (Cole et al. 1998) adapted to random waves. These three processes (scattering, friction and creep) are strongly dependent on the maximum floe size. We have thus included an estimation of the potential floe size based on an ice flexure failure estimation adapted from Williams et al. (2013). This combination of dissipation and scattering is tested against measured patterns of wave height and directional spreading, and evidence of ice break-up, all obtained from SAR imagery (Ardhuin et al. 2017), and some in situ data (Collins et al. 2015). The combination of creep and friction is required to reproduce a strong reduction in wave attenuation in broken ice as observed by Collins

  14. A toy model linking atmospheric thermal radiation and sea ice growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thorndike, A. S.

    1992-01-01

    A simplified analytical model of sea ice growth is presented where the atmosphere is in thermal radiative equilibrium with the ice. This makes the downwelling longwave radiation reaching the ice surface an internal variable rather than a specified forcing. Analytical results demonstrate how the ice state depends on properties of the ice and on the externally specified climate.

  15. Searching for 3D Viscosity Models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Support of the Global ICE-6G_C Ice History Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LI, T., II; Wu, P.; Steffen, H.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    The global ice history model ICE-6G_C was constructed based on the laterally homogeneous earth model VM5a. The combined model of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) called ICE-6G_C (VM5a) fits global observations of GIA simultaneously well. However, seismic and geological observations clearly show that the Earth's mantle is laterally heterogeneous. Our aim therefore is to search for the best laterally heterogeneous viscosity models with ICE-6G_C ice history that is able to fit the global relative sea-level (RSL) data, the peak uplift rates (from GNSS) and peak g-dot rates (from the GRACE satellite mission) in Laurentia and Fennoscandia simultaneously. The Coupled Laplace-Finite Element Method is used to compute gravitationally self-consistent sea levels with time dependent coastlines and rotational feedback in addition to changes in deformation, gravity and the state of stress. As a start, the VM5a Earth model is used as the radial background viscosity structure but other radial background viscosity models will also be investigated. Lateral mantle viscosity structure is obtained by the superposition of the radial background viscosity and the lateral viscosity perturbations logarithmically. The latter is inferred from a seismic tomography model using a scaling relationship that takes into account the effects of anharmonicity, anelasticity and non-thermal effects. We will show that several laterally heterogeneous mantle viscosity models can fit the global sea level, GPS and GRACE data better than laterally homogeneous models, provided that the scaling relationship for mantle heterogeneity under northern Europe is allowed to be different from that under Laurentia. In addition, the effects of laterally heterogeneous lithosphere, as inferred from seismic tomography, and the lateral changes in sub-lithospheric properties will also be presented.

  16. Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiaojian

    The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water

  17. The Influence of Subglacial Hydrology on Ice Stream Velocity in a Physical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagman, B. M.; Catania, G.; Buttles, J. L.

    2011-12-01

    We use a physical model to investigate how changes in subglacial hydrology affect ice motion in ice streams found in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice streams are modeled using silicone polymer placed over a thin water layer to simulate ice flow dominated by basal sliding. Dynamic similarity between modeled and natural ice streams is achieved through direct comparison of the glacier force balance using the conditions on Whillans Ice Stream (WIS) as our goal.This ice stream has a force balance that has evolved through time due to increased basal resistance. Currently, between 50-90% of the driving stress is supported by the ice stream shear margins [Stearns et al., JGlac 2005]. A similar force balance can be achieved in our model with a surface slope of 0.025. We test two hypotheses; 1) the distribution and thickness of the subglacial water layer influences the ice flow speed and thus the force balance and can reproduce the observed slowdown of WIS and; 2) shear margins are locations where transitions in water layer thickness occur.

  18. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) for Acute Toxicity: User Manual Version 3.1

    EPA Science Inventory

    Predictive toxicological models are integral to ecological risk assessment because data for most species are limited. Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) models are least square regressions that predict acute toxicity (LC50/LD50) of a chemical to a species, ge...

  19. Using palaeoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phipps, Steven; King, Matt; Roberts, Jason; White, Duanne

    2017-04-01

    Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modelling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how palaeoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A 50-member perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterisations of three key physical processes within the model: (i) the stress balance within the ice sheet, (ii) basal sliding and (iii) calving of ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Palaeoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

  20. From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

    2017-08-01

    Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

  1. Landfast ice thickness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from observations and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howell, Stephen E. L.; Laliberté, Frédéric; Kwok, Ron; Derksen, Chris; King, Joshua

    2016-07-01

    Observed and modelled landfast ice thickness variability and trends spanning more than 5 decades within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) are summarized. The observed sites (Cambridge Bay, Resolute, Eureka and Alert) represent some of the Arctic's longest records of landfast ice thickness. Observed end-of-winter (maximum) trends of landfast ice thickness (1957-2014) were statistically significant at Cambridge Bay (-4.31 ± 1.4 cm decade-1), Eureka (-4.65 ± 1.7 cm decade-1) and Alert (-4.44 ± 1.6 cm -1) but not at Resolute. Over the 50+-year record, the ice thinned by ˜ 0.24-0.26 m at Cambridge Bay, Eureka and Alert with essentially negligible change at Resolute. Although statistically significant warming in spring and fall was present at all sites, only low correlations between temperature and maximum ice thickness were present; snow depth was found to be more strongly associated with the negative ice thickness trends. Comparison with multi-model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison (ORA-IP) and Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) show that although a subset of current generation models have a "reasonable" climatological representation of landfast ice thickness and distribution within the CAA, trends are unrealistic and far exceed observations by up to 2 orders of magnitude. ORA-IP models were found to have positive correlations between temperature and ice thickness over the CAA, a feature that is inconsistent with both observations and coupled models from CMIP5.

  2. Solid-liquid interfacial free energy of ice Ih, ice Ic, and ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water via the capillary wave method.

    PubMed

    Ambler, Michael; Vorselaars, Bart; Allen, Michael P; Quigley, David

    2017-02-21

    We apply the capillary wave method, based on measurements of fluctuations in a ribbon-like interfacial geometry, to determine the solid-liquid interfacial free energy for both polytypes of ice I and the recently proposed ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water. We discuss various choices for the molecular order parameter, which distinguishes solid from liquid, and demonstrate the influence of this choice on the interfacial stiffness. We quantify the influence of discretisation error when sampling the interfacial profile and the limits on accuracy imposed by the assumption of quasi one-dimensional geometry. The interfacial free energies of the two ice I polytypes are indistinguishable to within achievable statistical error and the small ambiguity which arises from the choice of order parameter. In the case of ice 0, we find that the large surface unit cell for low index interfaces constrains the width of the interfacial ribbon such that the accuracy of results is reduced. Nevertheless, we establish that the interfacial free energy of ice 0 at its melting temperature is similar to that of ice I under the same conditions. The rationality of a core-shell model for the nucleation of ice I within ice 0 is questioned within the context of our results.

  3. Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.

    Here, large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 Junemore » 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.« less

  4. Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

    DOE PAGES

    Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; ...

    2017-06-08

    Here, large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 Junemore » 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.« less

  5. Sea ice thermohaline dynamics and biogeochemistry in the Arctic Ocean: Empirical and model results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duarte, Pedro; Meyer, Amelie; Olsen, Lasse M.; Kauko, Hanna M.; Assmy, Philipp; Rösel, Anja; Itkin, Polona; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Gerland, Sebastian; Sundfjord, Arild; Steen, Harald; Hop, Haakon; Cohen, Lana; Peterson, Algot K.; Jeffery, Nicole; Elliott, Scott M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.

    2017-07-01

    Large changes in the sea ice regime of the Arctic Ocean have occurred over the last decades justifying the development of models to forecast sea ice physics and biogeochemistry. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to simulate physical and biogeochemical properties at time scales of a few weeks and to use the model to analyze ice algal bloom dynamics in different types of ice. Ocean and atmospheric forcing data and observations of the evolution of the sea ice properties collected from 18 April to 4 June 2015, during the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition, were used to test the CICE model. Our results show the following: (i) model performance is reasonable for sea ice thickness and bulk salinity; good for vertically resolved temperature, vertically averaged Chl a concentrations, and standing stocks; and poor for vertically resolved Chl a concentrations. (ii) Improving current knowledge about nutrient exchanges, ice algal recruitment, and motion is critical to improve sea ice biogeochemical modeling. (iii) Ice algae may bloom despite some degree of basal melting. (iv) Ice algal motility driven by gradients in limiting factors is a plausible mechanism to explain their vertical distribution. (v) Different ice algal bloom and net primary production (NPP) patterns were identified in the ice types studied, suggesting that ice algal maximal growth rates will increase, while sea ice vertically integrated NPP and biomass will decrease as a result of the predictable increase in the area covered by refrozen leads in the Arctic Ocean.

  6. Spectral Analysis and Experimental Modeling of Ice Accretion Roughness

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, D. J.; Breuer, K. S.; Torres, B. E.; Hansman, R. J., Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A self-consistent scheme for relating wind tunnel ice accretion roughness to the resulting enhancement of heat transfer is described. First, a spectral technique of quantitative analysis of early ice roughness images is reviewed. The image processing scheme uses a spectral estimation technique (SET) which extracts physically descriptive parameters by comparing scan lines from the experimentally-obtained accretion images to a prescribed test function. Analysis using this technique for both streamwise and spanwise directions of data from the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) are presented. An experimental technique is then presented for constructing physical roughness models suitable for wind tunnel testing that match the SET parameters extracted from the IRT images. The icing castings and modeled roughness are tested for enhancement of boundary layer heat transfer using infrared techniques in a "dry" wind tunnel.

  7. Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Jiping; Song, Mirong; Horton, Radley M.; Hu, Yongyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

  8. Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

  9. Simulation Tools Model Icing for Aircraft Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    the years from strictly a research tool to one used routinely by industry and other government agencies. Glenn contractor William Wright has been the architect of this development, supported by a team of researchers investigating icing physics, creating validation data, and ensuring development according to standard software engineering practices. The program provides a virtual simulation environment for determining where water droplets strike an airfoil in flight, what kind of ice would result, and what shape that ice would take. Users can enter geometries for specific, two-dimensional cross sections of an airfoil or other airframe surface and then apply a range of inputs - different droplet sizes, temperatures, airspeeds, and more - to model how ice would build up on the surface in various conditions. The program s versatility, ease of use, and speed - LEWICE can run through complex icing simulations in only a few minutes - have contributed to it becoming a popular resource in the aviation industry.

  10. Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stroeve, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To

  11. Anisotropic mesh adaptation for marine ice-sheet modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Merino, Nacho; Peyaud, Vincent; Brondex, Julien; Durand, Gael; Gagliardini, Olivier

    2017-04-01

    Improving forecasts of ice-sheets contribution to sea-level rise requires, amongst others, to correctly model the dynamics of the grounding line (GL), i.e. the line where the ice detaches from its underlying bed and goes afloat on the ocean. Many numerical studies, including the intercomparison exercises MISMIP and MISMIP3D, have shown that grid refinement in the GL vicinity is a key component to obtain reliable results. Improving model accuracy while maintaining the computational cost affordable has then been an important target for the development of marine icesheet models. Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a method where the accuracy of the solution is controlled by spatially adapting the mesh size. It has become popular in models using the finite element method as they naturally deal with unstructured meshes, but block-structured AMR has also been successfully applied to model GL dynamics. The main difficulty with AMR is to find efficient and reliable estimators of the numerical error to control the mesh size. Here, we use the estimator proposed by Frey and Alauzet (2015). Based on the interpolation error, it has been found effective in practice to control the numerical error, and has some flexibility, such as its ability to combine metrics for different variables, that makes it attractive. Routines to compute the anisotropic metric defining the mesh size have been implemented in the finite element ice flow model Elmer/Ice (Gagliardini et al., 2013). The mesh adaptation is performed using the freely available library MMG (Dapogny et al., 2014) called from Elmer/Ice. Using a setup based on the inter-comparison exercise MISMIP+ (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), we study the accuracy of the solution when the mesh is adapted using various variables (ice thickness, velocity, basal drag, …). We show that combining these variables allows to reduce the number of mesh nodes by more than one order of magnitude, for the same numerical accuracy, when compared to uniform mesh

  12. Ice Accretions and Icing Effects for Modern Airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Addy, Harold E., Jr.

    2000-01-01

    Icing tests were conducted to document ice shapes formed on three different two-dimensional airfoils and to study the effects of the accreted ice on aerodynamic performance. The models tested were representative of airfoil designs in current use for each of the commercial transport, business jet, and general aviation categories of aircraft. The models were subjected to a range of icing conditions in an icing wind tunnel. The conditions were selected primarily from the Federal Aviation Administration's Federal Aviation Regulations 25 Appendix C atmospheric icing conditions. A few large droplet icing conditions were included. To verify the aerodynamic performance measurements, molds were made of selected ice shapes formed in the icing tunnel. Castings of the ice were made from the molds and placed on a model in a dry, low-turbulence wind tunnel where precision aerodynamic performance measurements were made. Documentation of all the ice shapes and the aerodynamic performance measurements made during the icing tunnel tests is included in this report. Results from the dry, low-turbulence wind tunnel tests are also presented.

  13. Improved parameterization of marine ice dynamics and flow instabilities for simulation of the Austfonna ice cap using a large-scale ice sheet model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunse, T.; Greve, R.; Schuler, T.; Hagen, J. M.; Navarro, F.; Vasilenko, E.; Reijmer, C.

    2009-12-01

    The Austfonna ice cap covers an area of 8120 km2 and is by far the largest glacier on Svalbard. Almost 30% of the entire area is grounded below sea-level, while the figure is as large as 57% for the known surge-type basins in particular. Marine ice dynamics, as well as flow instabilities presumably control flow regime, form and evolution of Austfonna. These issues are our focus in numerical simulations of the ice cap. We employ the thermodynamic, large-scale ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (http://sicopolis.greveweb.net/) which is based on the shallow-ice approximation. We present improved parameterizations of (a) the marine extent and calving and (b) processes that may initiate flow instabilities such as switches from cold to temperate basal conditions, surface steepening and hence, increases in driving stress, enhanced sliding or deformation of unconsolidated marine sediments and diminishing ice thicknesses towards flotation thickness. Space-borne interferometric snapshots of Austfonna revealed a velocity structure of a slow moving polar ice cap (< 10m/a) interrupted by distinct fast flow units with velocities in excess of 100m/a. However, observations of flow variability are scarce. In spring 2008, we established a series of stakes along the centrelines of two fast-flowing units. Repeated DGPS and continuous GPS measurements of the stake positions give insight in the temporal flow variability of these units and provide constrains to the modeled surface velocity field. Austfonna’s thermal structure is described as polythermal. However, direct measurements of the temperature distribution is available only from one single borehole at the summit area. The vertical temperature profile shows that the bulk of the 567m thick ice column is cold, only underlain by a thin temperate basal layer of approximately 20m. To acquire a spatially extended picture of the thermal structure (and bed topography), we used low-frequency (20 MHz) GPR profiling across the ice cap and the

  14. Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tietsche, S.; Day, J. J.; Guemas, V.; Hurlin, W. J.; Keeley, S. P. E.; Matei, D.; Msadek, R.; Collins, M.; Hawkins, E.

    2014-02-01

    We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.

  15. A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

    2005-01-01

    For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

  16. Numerical model of frazil ice and suspended sediment concentrations and formation of sediment laden ice in the Kara Sea

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherwood, C.R.

    2000-01-01

    A one-dimensional (vertical) numerical model of currents, mixing, frazil ice concentration, and suspended sediment concentration has been developed and applied in the shallow southeastern Kara Sea. The objective of the calculations is to determine whether conditions suitable for turbid ice formation can occur during times of rapid cooling and wind- and wave-induced sediment resuspension. Although the model uses a simplistic approach to ice particles and neglects ice-sediment interactions, the results for low-stratification, shallow (∼20-m) freeze-up conditions indicate that the coconcentrations of frazil ice and suspended sediment in the water column are similar to observed concentrations of sediment in turbid ice. This suggests that wave-induced sediment resuspension is a viable mechanism for turbid ice formation, and enrichment mechanisms proposed to explain the high concentrations of sediment in turbid ice relative to sediment concentrations in underlying water may not be necessary in energetic conditions. However, salinity stratification found near the Ob' and Yenisey Rivers damps mixing between ice-laden surface water and sediment-laden bottom water and probably limits incorporation of resuspended sediment into turbid ice until prolonged or repeated wind events mix away the stratification. Sensitivity analyses indicate that shallow (≤20 m), unstratified waters with fine bottom sediment (settling speeds of ∼1 mm s−1 or less) and long open water fetches (>25 km) are ideal conditions for resuspension.

  17. A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958-2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; Lhermitte, Stef; Howat, Ian; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

    2016-10-01

    This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958-2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.

  18. A review of ice accretion data from a model rotor icing test and comparison with theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Britton, Randall K.; Bond, Thomas H.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment was conducted by the Helicopter Icing Consortium (HIC) in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) in which a 1/6 scale fuselage model of a UH-60A Black Hawk helicopter with a generic rotor was subjected to a wide range of icing conditions. The HIC consists of members from NASA, Bell Helicopter, Boeing Helicopter, McDonnell Douglas Helicopters, Sikorsky Aircraft, and Texas A&M University. Data was taken in the form of rotor torque, internal force balance measurements, blade strain gage loading, and two dimensional ice shape tracings. A review of the ice shape data is performed with special attention given to repeatability and correctness of trends in terms of radial variation, rotational speed, icing time, temperature, liquid water content, and volumetric median droplet size. Moreover, an indepth comparison between the experimental data and the analysis of NASA's ice accretion code LEWICE is given. Finally, conclusions are drawn as to the quality of the ice accretion data and the predictability of the data base as a whole. Recommendations are also given for improving data taking technique as well as potential future work.

  19. Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

  20. Mathematical modeling of ice accretion on airfoils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macarthur, C. D.; Keller, J. L.; Luers, J. K.

    1982-01-01

    The progress toward development of a computer model suitable for predicting icing behavior on airfoils over a wide range of environmental conditions and airfoils shapes is reported. The LEWICE program was formulated to solve a set of equations which describe the physical processes which occur during accretion of ice on an airfoil, including heat transfer in a time dependent mode, with the restriction that the flow must be describable by a two-dimensional flow code. Input data comprises the cloud liquid water content, mean droplet diameter, ambient air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity. A potential flowfield around the airfoil is calculated, along with the droplet trajectories within the flowfield, followed by local values of water droplet collection efficiency at the impact points. Both glaze and rime ice conditions are reproduced, and comparisons with test results on icing of circular cylinders showed good agreement with the physical situation.

  1. Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

    This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

  2. Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

    2017-12-01

    Coasts form the dynamic interface between the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a focal point for population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A key difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Changes in sea ice cover can influence the coast because (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the location of the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can interact with open ocean water, which in turn governs nearshore water level and wave field. We first focus on the interaction of sea ice and ice-rich coasts. We combine satellite records of sea ice with a model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to estimate how changes in the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment along Alaska's Beaufort Sea Coast for the period 1979-2012. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic: the median length of the open-water season has expanded by 90 percent, while coastal erosion rates have more than doubled from 8.7 to 19 m yr-1. At Drew Point, NW winds increase shoreline water levels that control the incision of a submarine notch, the rate-limiting step of coastal retreat. The maximum water-level setup at Drew Point has increased consistently with increasing fetch. We extend our analysis to the entire Arctic using both satellite-based observations and global coupled climate model output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. This 30-member ensemble employs a 1-degree version of the CESM-CAM5 historical forcing for the period 1920-2005, and RCP 8.5 forcing from 2005-2100. A control model run with constant pre-industrial (1850) forcing characterizes internal variability in a constant climate. Finally, we compare observations and model results to

  3. A Simple Diagnostic Model of the Circulation Beneath an Ice Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Adrian; Nøst, Ole Anders

    2017-04-01

    The ocean circulation beneath ice shelves supplies the heat required to melt ice and exports the resulting freshwater. It therefore plays a key role in determining the mass balance and geometry of the ice shelves and hence the restraint they impose on the outflow of grounded ice from the interior of the ice sheet. Despite this critical role in regulating the ice sheet's contribution to eustatic sea level, an understanding of some of the most basic features of the circulation is lacking. The conventional paradigm is one of a buoyancy-forced overturning circulation, with inflow of warm, salty water along the seabed and outflow of cooled and freshened waters along the ice base. However, most sub-ice-shelf cavities are broad relative to the internal Rossby radius, so a horizontal circulation accompanies the overturning. Primitive equation ocean models applied to idealised geometries produce cyclonic gyres of comparable magnitude, but in the absence of a theoretical understanding of what controls the gyre strength, those solutions can only be validated against each other. Furthermore, we have no understanding of how the gyre circulation should change given more complex geometries. To begin to address this gap in our theoretical understanding we present a simple, linear, steady-state model for the circulation beneath an ice shelf. Our approach in analogous to that of Stommel's classic analysis of the wind-driven gyres, but is complicated by the fact that his most basic assumption of homogeneity is inappropriate. The only forcing on the flow beneath an ice shelf arises because of the horizontal density gradients set up by melting. We thus arrive at a diagnostic model which gives us the depth-dependent horizontal circulation that results from an imposed geometry and density distribution. We describe the development of the model and present some preliminary solutions for the simplest cavity geometries.

  4. Reconstructing lake ice cover in subarctic lakes using a diatom-based inference model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weckström, Jan; Hanhijärvi, Sami; Forsström, Laura; Kuusisto, Esko; Korhola, Atte

    2014-03-01

    A new quantitative diatom-based lake ice cover inference model was developed to reconstruct past ice cover histories and applied to four subarctic lakes. The used ice cover model is based on a calculated melting degree day value of +130 and a freezing degree day value of -30 for each lake. The reconstructed Holocene ice cover duration histories show similar trends to the independently reconstructed regional air temperature history. The ice cover duration was around 7 days shorter than the average ice cover duration during the warmer early Holocene (approximately 10 to 6.5 calibrated kyr B.P.) and around 3-5 days longer during the cool Little Ice Age (approximately 500 to 100 calibrated yr B.P.). Although the recent climate warming is represented by only 2-3 samples in the sediment series, these show a rising trend in the prolonged ice-free periods of up to 2 days. Diatom-based ice cover inference models can provide a powerful tool to reconstruct past ice cover histories in remote and sensitive areas where no measured data are available.

  5. Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

    2012-12-01

    Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and

  6. Engineering of frustration in colloidal artificial ice (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz-Ambriz, Antonio; Tierno, Pietro

    2016-09-01

    Artificial spin-ice systems have been used to date as microscopic models of frustration induced by lattice topology, as they allow for the direct visualization of spin arrangements and textures. However, the engineering of frustrated ice states in which individual spins can be manipulated in situ and the real-time observation of their collective dynamics remain both challenging tasks. Recently, an analogue system has been proposed theoretically, where an optical landscape confined colloidal particles that interacted electrostatically. Here we realize experimentally another version of a colloidal artificial ice system using interacting magnetically polarizable particles confined to lattices of bistable gravitational traps. We show quantitatively that ice-selection rules emerge in this frustrated soft matter system by tuning the strength of the pair-interactions between the microscopic units. By using optical tweezers, we can control particle positioning and dipolar coupling, we introduce monopole-like defects and strings and use loops with defined chirality as an elementary unit to store binary information.

  7. Constraints of GRACE on the Ice Model and Mantle Rheology in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Modeling in North-America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Wal, W.; Wu, P.; Sideris, M.; Wang, H.

    2009-05-01

    GRACE satellite data offer homogeneous coverage of the area covered by the former Laurentide ice sheet. The secular gravity rate estimated from the GRACE data can therefore be used to constrain the ice loading history in Laurentide and, to a lesser extent, the mantle rheology in a GIA model. The objective of this presentation is to find a best fitting global ice model and use it to study how the ice model can be modified to fit a composite rheology, in which creep rates from a linear and non-linear rheology are added. This is useful because all the ice models constructed from GIA assume that mantle rheology is linear, but creep experiments on rocks show that nonlinear rheology may be the dominant mechanism in some parts of the mantle. We use CSR release 4 solutions from August 2002 to October 2008 with continental water storage effects removed by the GLDAS model and filtering with a destriping and Gaussian filter. The GIA model is a radially symmetric incompressible Maxwell Earth, with varying upper and lower mantle viscosity. Gravity rate misfit values are computed for with a range of viscosity values with the ICE-3G, ICE-4G and ICE-5G models. The best fit is shown for models with ICE-3G and ICE-4G, and the ICE-4G model is selected for computations with a so-called composite rheology. For the composite rheology, the Coupled Laplace Finite-Element Method is used to compute the GIA response of a spherical self-gravitating incompressible Maxwell Earth. The pre-stress exponent (A) derived from a uni- axial stress experiment is varied between 3.3 x 10-34/10-35/10-36 Pa-3s-1, the Newtonian viscosity η is varied between 1 and 3 x 1021 Pa-s, and the stress exponent is taken to be 3. Composite rheology in general results in geoid rates that are too small compared to GRACE observations. Therefore, simple modifications of the ICE-4G history are investigated by scaling ice heights or delaying glaciation. It is found that a delay in glaciation is a better way to adjust ice

  8. Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

    2016-12-01

    The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment

  9. IceProd 2: A Next Generation Data Analysis Framework for the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, D.

    2015-12-01

    We describe the overall structure and new features of the second generation of IceProd, a data processing and management framework. IceProd was developed by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory for processing of Monte Carlo simulations, detector data, and analysis levels. It runs as a separate layer on top of grid and batch systems. This is accomplished by a set of daemons which process job workflow, maintaining configuration and status information on the job before, during, and after processing. IceProd can also manage complex workflow DAGs across distributed computing grids in order to optimize usage of resources. IceProd is designed to be very light-weight; it runs as a python application fully in user space and can be set up easily. For the initial completion of this second version of IceProd, improvements have been made to increase security, reliability, scalability, and ease of use.

  10. Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

    2016-12-01

    Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few

  11. Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

    2010-05-01

    In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

  12. Modeling the growth and decay of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payne, A. J.; Sugden, D. E.; Clapperton, C. M.

    1989-03-01

    A model of the growth and decay of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the last glacial/interglacial cycle is used to identify the main controls on ice sheet behavior. Using as input glaciological assumptions derived by W. F. Budd and I. N. Smith (1982, Annals of Glaciology3, 42-49), bedrock topography, isostatic compensation, and mass balance relationships, the model is driven by sea-level change over the last 40,000 yr in association with assumed changes in the rate of melting beneath ice shelves. An ice sheet dome over 3.5 km thick grows on the offshore shelf and straits west of the Antarctic Peninsula and reaches a maximum at 18,000 yr B.P. Collapse begins at 14,000 yr B.P. but becomes rapid and continuous after 10,000 yr B.P. The present stable ice cover is achieved at 6500 yr B.P. Ice growth and decay are characterized by thresholds which separate periods of steady state from periods of rapid transition; the thresholds usually relate to topography. Tests show that ice sheet behavior is most sensitive to sea-level change, basal marine melting, and accumulation and is less sensitive to isostasy, spatial variation in accumulation, calving rates, and ice flow parameterization. Tests of the model against field evidence show good agreement in places, as well as discrepancies which require further work.

  13. Ice-shelf Dynamics Near the Front of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Revealed by SAR Interferometry: Model/Interferogram Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacAyeal, D. R.; Rignot, E.; Hulbe, C. L.

    1998-01-01

    We compare Earth Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) interferograms with artificial interferograms constructed using output of a finite-element ice-shelf flow model to study the dynamics of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) near Hemmen Ice Rise (HIR) where the iceberg-calving front itersects Berkener Island (BI).

  14. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  15. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  16. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    2017-02-14

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  17. Simulations of coupled, Antarctic ice-ocean evolution using POP2x and BISICLES (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Hoffman, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    We present initial results from Antarctic, ice-ocean coupled simulations using large-scale ocean circulation and land ice evolution models. The ocean model, POP2x is a modified version of POP, a fully eddying, global-scale ocean model (Smith and Gent, 2002). POP2x allows for circulation beneath ice shelf cavities using the method of partial top cells (Losch, 2008). Boundary layer physics, which control fresh water and salt exchange at the ice-ocean interface, are implemented following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (1999), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008; Kimura et al., 2013) and with results from other idealized ice-ocean coupling test cases (e.g., Goldberg et al., 2012). The land ice model, BISICLES (Cornford et al., 2012), includes a 1st-order accurate momentum balance (L1L2) and uses block structured, adaptive-mesh refinement to more accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. For idealized test cases focused on marine-ice sheet dynamics, BISICLES output compares very favorably relative to simulations based on the full, nonlinear Stokes momentum balance (MISMIP-3d; Pattyn et al., 2013). Here, we present large-scale (southern ocean) simulations using POP2x with fixed ice shelf geometries, which are used to obtain and validate modeled submarine melt rates against observations. These melt rates are, in turn, used to force evolution of the BISICLES model. An offline-coupling scheme, which we compare with the ice-ocean coupling work of Goldberg et al. (2012), is then used to sequentially update the sub-shelf cavity geometry seen by POP2x.

  18. Spin Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bramwell, Steven T.; Gingras, Michel J. P.; Holdsworth, Peter C. W.

    2013-03-01

    Pauling's model of hydrogen disorder in water ice represents the prototype of a frustrated system. Over the years it has spawned several analogous models, including Anderson's model antiferromagnet and the statistical "vertex" models. Spin Ice is a sixteen vertex model of "ferromagnetic frustration" that is approximated by real materials, most notably the rare earth pyrochlores Ho2Ti2O7, Dy2Ti2O7 and Ho2Sn2O7. These "spin ice materials" have the Pauling zero point entropy and in all respects represent almost ideal realisations of Pauling's model. They provide experimentalists with unprecedented access to a wide variety of novel magnetic states and phase transitions that are located in different regions of the field-temperature phase diagram. They afford theoreticians the opportunity to explore many new features of the magnetic interactions and statistical mechanics of frustrated systems. This chapter is a comprehensive review of the physics -- both experimental and theoretical -- of spin ice. It starts with a discussion of the historic problem of water ice and its relation to spin ice and other frustrated magnets. The properties of spin ice are then discussed in three sections that deal with the zero field spin ice state, the numerous field-induced states (including the recently identified "kagomé ice") and the magnetic dynamics. Some materials related to spin ice are briefly described and the chapter is concluded with a short summary of spin ice physics.

  19. In situ cosmogenic radiocarbon production and 2-D ice flow line modeling for an Antarctic blue ice area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizert, Christo; Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Kavanaugh, Jeffrey L.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Lifton, Nathaniel A.; Brook, Edward J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2012-06-01

    Radiocarbon measurements at ice margin sites and blue ice areas can potentially be used for ice dating, ablation rate estimates and paleoclimatic reconstructions. Part of the measured signal comes from in situ cosmogenic 14C production in ice, and this component must be well understood before useful information can be extracted from 14C data. We combine cosmic ray scaling and production estimates with a two-dimensional ice flow line model to study cosmogenic 14C production at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We find (1) that 14C production through thermal neutron capture by nitrogen in air bubbles is negligible; (2) that including ice flow patterns caused by basal topography can lead to a surface 14C activity that differs by up to 25% from the activity calculated using an ablation-only approximation, which is used in all prior work; and (3) that at high ablation margin sites, solar modulation of the cosmic ray flux may change the strength of the dominant spallogenic production by up to 10%. As part of this effort we model two-dimensional ice flow along the central flow line of Taylor Glacier. We present two methods for parameterizing vertical strain rates, and assess which method is more reliable for Taylor Glacier. Finally, we present a sensitivity study from which we conclude that uncertainties in published cosmogenic production rates are the largest source of potential error. The results presented here can inform ongoing and future 14C and ice flow studies at ice margin sites, including important paleoclimatic applications such as the reconstruction of paleoatmospheric 14C content of methane.

  20. Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

  1. Modeling the heating and melting of sea ice through light absorption by microalgae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeebe, Richard E.; Eicken, Hajo; Robinson, Dale H.; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Dieckmann, Gerhard S.

    1996-01-01

    In sea ice of polar regions, high concentrations of microalgae are observed during the spring. Algal standing stocks may attain peak values of over 300 mg chl a m-2 in the congelation ice habitat. As of yet, the effect of additional heating of sea ice through conversion of solar radiation into heat by algae has not been investigated in detail. Local effects, such as a decrease in albedo, increasing melt rates, and a decrease of the physical strength of ice sheets may occur. To investigate the effects of microalgae on the thermal regime of sea ice, a time-dependent, one-dimensional thermodynamic model of sea ice was coupled to a bio-optical model. A spectral one-stream model was employed to determine spectral attenuation by snow, sea ice, and microalgae. Beer's law was assumed to hold for every wavelength. Energy absorption was obtained by calculating the divergence of irradiance in every layer of the model (Δz = 1 cm). Changes in sea ice temperature profiles were calculated by solving the heat conduction equation with a finite difference scheme. Model results indicate that when algal biomass is concentrated at the bottom of congelation ice, melting of ice resulting from the additional conversion of solar radiation into heat may effectively destroy the algal habitat, thereby releasing algal biomass into the water column. An algal layer located in the top of the ice sheet induced a significant increase in sea ice temperature (ΔT > 0.3 K) for snow depths less than 5 cm and algal standing stocks higher than 150 mg chl a m-2. Furthermore, under these conditions, brine volume increased by 21% from 181 to 219 parts per thousand, which decreased the physical strength of the ice.

  2. Diffusion model validation and interpretation of stable isotopes in river and lake ice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ferrick, M.G.; Calkins, D.J.; Perron, N.M.; Cragin, J.H.; Kendall, C.

    2002-01-01

    The stable isotope stratigraphy of river- and lake-ice archives winter hydroclimatic conditions, and can potentially be used to identify changing water sources or to provide important insights into ice formation processes and growth rates. However, accurate interpretations rely on known isotopic fractionation during ice growth. A one-dimensional diffusion model of the liquid boundary layer adjacent to an advancing solid interface, originally developed to simulate solute rejection by growing crystals, has been used without verification to describe non-equilibrium fractionation during congelation ice growth. Results are not in agreement, suggesting the presence of important uncertainties. In this paper we seek validation of the diffusion model for this application using large-scale laboratory experiments with controlled freezing rates and frequent sampling. We obtained consistent, almost constant, isotopic boundary layer thicknesses over a representative range of ice growth rates on both quiescent and well-mixed water. With the 18O boundary layer thickness from the laboratory, the model successfully quantified reduced river-ice growth rates relative to those of a nearby lake. These results were more representative and easier to obtain than those of a conventional thermal ice-growth model. This diffusion model validation and boundary layer thickness determination provide a powerful tool for interpreting the stable isotope stratigraphy of floating ice. The laboratory experiment also replicated successive fractionation events in response to a freeze-thaw-refreeze cycle, providing a mechanism for apparent ice fractionation that exceeds equilibrium. Analysis of the composition of snow ice and frazil ice in river and lake cores indicated surprising similarities between these ice forms. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

    2018-01-01

    Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

  4. Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High-Resolution Viscous-Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations.

    PubMed

    Hutter, Nils; Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

    2018-01-01

    Sea ice models with the traditional viscous-plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean simulation, the small-scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data.

  5. Modeling the relative contributions of secondary ice formation processes to ice crystal number concentrations within mixed-phase clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sullivan, Sylvia; Hoose, Corinna; Nenes, Athanasios

    2016-04-01

    Measurements of in-cloud ice crystal number concentrations can be three or four orders of magnitude greater than the in-cloud ice nuclei number concentrations. This discrepancy can be explained by various secondary ice formation processes, which occur after initial ice nucleation, but the relative importance of these processes, and even the exact physics of each, is still unclear. A simple bin microphysics model (2IM) is constructed to investigate these knowledge gaps. 2IM extends the time-lag collision parameterization of Yano and Phillips, 2011 to include rime splintering, ice-ice aggregation, and droplet shattering and to incorporate the aspect ratio evolution as in Jensen and Harrington, 2015. The relative contribution of the secondary processes under various conditions are shown. In particular, temperature-dependent efficiencies are adjusted for ice-ice aggregation versus collision around -15°C, when rime splintering is no longer active, and the effect of aspect ratio on the process weighting is explored. The resulting simulations are intended to guide secondary ice formation parameterizations in larger-scale mixed-phase cloud schemes.

  6. Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the

  7. Data assimilation of surface altimetry on the North-Easter Ice Stream using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larour, Eric; Utke, Jean; Morlighem, Mathieu; Seroussi, Helene; Csatho, Beata; Schenk, Anton; Rignot, Eric; Khazendar, Ala

    2014-05-01

    Extensive surface altimetry data has been collected on polar ice sheets over the past decades, following missions such as Envisat and IceSat. This data record will further increase in size with the new CryoSat mission, the ongoing Operation IceBridge Mission and the soon to launch IceSat-2 mission. In order to make the best use of these dataset, ice flow models need to improve on the way they ingest surface altimetry to infer: 1) parameterizations of poorly known physical processes such as basal friction; 2) boundary conditions such as Surface Mass Balance (SMB). Ad-hoc sensitivity studies and adjoint-based inversions have so far been the way ice sheet models have attempted to resolve the impact of 1) on their results. As for boundary conditions or the lack thereof, most studies assume that they are a fixed quantity, which, though prone to large errors from the measurement itself, is not varied according to the simulated results. Here, we propose a method based on automatic differentiation to improve boundary conditions at the base and surface of the ice sheet during a short-term transient run for which surface altimetry observations are available. The method relies on minimizing a cost-function, the best fit between modeled surface evolution and surface altimetry observations, using gradients that are computed for each time step from automatic differentiation of the ISSM (Ice Sheet System Model) code. The approach relies on overloaded operators using the ADOLC (Automatic Differentiation by OverLoading in C++) package. It is applied to the 79 North Glacier, Greenland, for a short term transient spanning a couple of decades before the start of the retreat of the Zachariae Isstrom outlet glacier. Our results show adjustments required on the basal friction and the SMB of the whole basin to best fit surface altimetry observations, along with sensitivities each one of these parameters has on the overall cost function. Our approach presents a pathway towards assimilating

  8. Modeling haul-out behavior of walruses in Bering Sea ice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Jay, C.V.; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Garlich-Miller, J. L.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding haul-out behavior of ice-associated pinnipeds is essential for designing and interpreting popula-tion surveys and for assessing effects of potential changes in their ice environments. We used satellite-linked transmitters to obtain sequential information about location and haul-out state for Pacific walruses, Odobenus rosmarus divergens (Il-liger, 1815), in the Bering Sea during April of 2004, 2005, and 2006. We used these data in a generalized mixed model of haul-out bout durations and a hierarchical Bayesian model of haul-out probabilities to assess factors related to walrus haul-out behavior, and provide the first predictive model of walrus haul-out behavior in sea ice habitat. Average haul-out bout duration was 9 h, but durations of haul-out bouts tended to increase with durations of preceding in-water bouts. On aver-age, tagged walruses spent only about 17% of their time hauled out on sea ice. Probability of being hauled out decreased with wind speed, increased with temperature, and followed a diurnal cycle with the highest values in the evening. Our haul-out probability model can be used to estimate the proportion of the population that is unavailable for detection in spring surveys of Pacific walruses on sea ice.

  9. Basal friction evolution and crevasse distribution during the surge of Basin 3, Austfonna ice-cap - offline coupling between a continuum ice dynamic model and a discrete element model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Yongmei; Zwinger, Thomas; Åström, Jan; Gladstone, Rupert; Schellenberger, Thomas; Altena, Bas; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    The outlet glacier at Basin 3, Austfonna ice-cap entered its active surge phase in autumn 2012. We assess the evolution of the basal friction during the surge through inverse modelling of basal friction coefficients using recent velocity observation from 2012 to 2014 in a continuum ice dynamic model Elmer/ice. The obtained basal friction coefficient distributions at different time instances are further used as a boundary condition in a discrete element model (HiDEM) that is capable of computing fracturing of ice. The inverted basal friction coefficient evolution shows a gradual 'unplugging' of the stagnant frontal area and northwards and inland expansion of the fast flowing region in the southern basin. The validation between the modeled crevasses distribution and the satellite observation in August 2013 shows a good agreement in shear zones inland and at the frontal area. Crevasse distributions of the summer before and after the glacier reached its maximum velocity in January 2013 (August 2012 and August 2014, respectively) are also evaluated. Previous studies suggest the triggering and development of the surge are linked to surface melt water penetrating through ice to form an efficient basal hydrology system thereby triggering a hydro- thermodynamic feedback. This preliminary offline coupling between a continuum ice dynamic model and a discrete element model will give a hint on future model development of linking supra-glacial to sub-glacial hydrology system.

  10. A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

    2012-12-01

    There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

  11. Representation of the Great Lakes in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briley, L.; Rood, R. B.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Great Lakes play a significant role in modifying regional temperatures and precipitation, and as the lakes change in response to a warming climate (i.e., warmer surface water temperatures, decreased ice cover, etc) lake-land-atmosphere dynamics are affected. Because the lakes modify regional weather and are a driver of regional climate change, understanding how they are represented in climate models is important to the reliability of model based information for the region. As part of the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (GLISA) Ensemble project, a major effort is underway to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version (CMIP) 5 global climate models for how well they physically represent the Great Lakes and lake-effects. The CMIP models were chosen because they are a primary source of information in many products developed for decision making (i.e., National Climate Assessment, downscaled future climate projections, etc.), yet there is very little description of how well they represent the lakes. This presentation will describe the results of our investigation of if and how the Great Lakes are represented in the CMIP5 models.

  12. Modelling and parameterizing the influence of tides on ice-shelf melt rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jourdain, N.; Molines, J. M.; Le Sommer, J.; Mathiot, P.; de Lavergne, C.; Gurvan, M.; Durand, G.

    2017-12-01

    Significant Antarctic ice sheet thinning is observed in several sectors of Antarctica, in particular in the Amundsen Sea sector, where warm circumpolar deep waters affect basal melting. The later has the potential to trigger marine ice sheet instabilities, with an associated potential for rapid sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to simulate and understand the processes associated with ice-shelf melt rates. In particular, the absence of tides representation in ocean models remains a caveat of numerous ocean hindcasts and climate projections. In the Amundsen Sea, tides are relatively weak and the melt-induced circulation is stronger than the tidal circulation. Using a regional 1/12° ocean model of the Amundsen Sea, we nonetheless find that tides can increase melt rates by up to 36% in some ice-shelf cavities. Among the processes that can possibly affect melt rates, the most important is an increased exchange at the ice/ocean interface resulting from the presence of strong tidal currents along the ice drafts. Approximately a third of this effect is compensated by a decrease in thermal forcing along the ice draft, which is related to an enhanced vertical mixing in the ocean interior in presence of tides. Parameterizing the effect of tides is an alternative to the representation of explicit tides in an ocean model, and has the advantage not to require any filtering of ocean model outputs. We therefore explore different ways to parameterize the effects of tides on ice shelf melt. First, we compare several methods to impose tidal velocities along the ice draft. We show that getting a realistic spatial distribution of tidal velocities in important, and can be deduced from the barotropic velocities of a tide model. Then, we explore several aspects of parameterized tidal mixing to reproduce the tide-induced decrease in thermal forcing along the ice drafts.

  13. Perennial snow and ice volumes on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, estimated with ice radar and volume modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trabant, Dennis C.

    1999-01-01

    The volume of four of the largest glaciers on Iliamna Volcano was estimated using the volume model developed for evaluating glacier volumes on Redoubt Volcano. The volume model is controlled by simulated valley cross sections that are constructed by fitting third-order polynomials to the shape of the valley walls exposed above the glacier surface. Critical cross sections were field checked by sounding with ice-penetrating radar during July 1998. The estimated volumes of perennial snow and glacier ice for Tuxedni, Lateral, Red, and Umbrella Glaciers are 8.6, 0.85, 4.7, and 0.60 cubic kilometers respectively. The estimated volume of snow and ice on the upper 1,000 meters of the volcano is about 1 cubic kilometer. The volume estimates are thought to have errors of no more than ?25 percent. The volumes estimated for the four largest glaciers are more than three times the total volume of snow and ice on Mount Rainier and about 82 times the total volume of snow and ice that was on Mount St. Helens before its May 18, 1980 eruption. Volcanoes mantled by substantial snow and ice covers have produced the largest and most catastrophic lahars and floods. Therefore, it is prudent to expect that, during an eruptive episode, flooding and lahars threaten all of the drainages heading on Iliamna Volcano. On the other hand, debris avalanches can happen any time. Fortunately, their influence is generally limited to the area within a few kilometers of the summit.

  14. A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili

    Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

  15. A comparison of two Stokes ice sheet models applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d)

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Tong; Price, Stephen F.; Ju, Lili; ...

    2017-01-25

    Here, we present a comparison of the numerics and simulation results for two "full" Stokes ice sheet models, FELIX-S (Leng et al. 2012) and Elmer/Ice. The models are applied to the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d). For the diagnostic experiment (P75D) the two models give similar results (< 2 % difference with respect to along-flow velocities) when using identical geometries and computational meshes, which we interpret as an indication of inherent consistencies and similarities between the two models. For the standard (Stnd), P75S, and P75R prognostic experiments, we find that FELIX-S (Elmer/Ice) grounding linesmore » are relatively more retreated (advanced), results that are consistent with minor differences observed in the diagnostic experiment results and that we show to be due to different choices in the implementation of basal boundary conditions in the two models. While we are not able to argue for the relative favorability of either implementation, we do show that these differences decrease with increasing horizontal (i.e., both along- and across-flow) grid resolution and that grounding-line positions for FELIX-S and Elmer/Ice converge to within the estimated truncation error for Elmer/Ice. Stokes model solutions are often treated as an accuracy metric in model intercomparison experiments, but computational cost may not always allow for the use of model resolution within the regime of asymptotic convergence. In this case, we propose that an alternative estimate for the uncertainty in the grounding-line position is the span of grounding-line positions predicted by multiple Stokes models.« less

  16. Representing grounding line migration in synchronous coupling between a marine ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Snow, K.; Holland, P.; Jordan, J. R.; Campin, J.-M.; Heimbach, P.; Arthern, R.; Jenkins, A.

    2018-05-01

    Synchronous coupling is developed between an ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model (the MITgcm). A previously-developed scheme to allow continuous vertical movement of the ice-ocean interface of a floating ice shelf ("vertical coupling") is built upon to allow continuous movement of the grounding line, or point of floatation of the ice sheet ("horizontal coupling"). Horizontal coupling is implemented through the maintenance of a thin layer of ocean ( ∼ 1 m) under grounded ice, which is inflated into the real ocean as the ice ungrounds. This is accomplished through a modification of the ocean model's nonlinear free surface evolution in a manner akin to a hydrological model in the presence of steep bathymetry. The coupled model is applied to a number of idealized geometries and shown to successfully represent ocean-forced marine ice sheet retreat while maintaining a continuous ocean circulation.

  17. Numerical modeling of Drangajökull Ice Cap, NW Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Leif S.; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Flowers, Gwenn E.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Magnússon, Eyjólfur; Pálsson, Finnur; Muñoz-Cobo Belart, Joaquín; Þorsteinsson, Þorsteinn; Jóhannesson, Tómas; Sigurðsson, Oddur; Harning, David; Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug

    2016-04-01

    Over the past century the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the global average. This discrepancy is likely due to feedbacks inherent to the Arctic climate system. These Arctic climate feedbacks are currently poorly quantified, but are essential to future climate predictions based on global circulation modeling. Constraining the magnitude and timing of past Arctic climate changes allows us to test climate feedback parameterizations at different times with different boundary conditions. Because Holocene Arctic summer temperature changes have been largest in the North Atlantic (Kaufman et al., 2004) we focus on constraining the paleoclimate of Iceland. Glaciers are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation amount. This sensitivity allows for the estimation of paleoclimate using glacier models, modern glacier mass balance data, and past glacier extents. We apply our model to the Drangajökull ice cap (~150 sq. km) in NW Iceland. Our numerical model is resolved in two-dimensions, conserves mass, and applies the shallow-ice-approximation. The bed DEM used in the model runs was constructed from radio echo data surveyed in spring 2014. We constrain the modern surface mass balance of Drangajökull using: 1) ablation and accumulation stakes; 2) ice surface digital elevation models (DEMs) from satellite, airborne LiDAR, and aerial photographs; and 3) full-stokes model-derived vertical ice velocities. The modeled vertical ice velocities and ice surface DEMs are combined to estimate past surface mass balance. We constrain Holocene glacier geometries using moraines and trimlines (e.g., Brynjolfsson, etal, 2014), proglacial-lake cores, and radiocarbon-dated dead vegetation emerging from under the modern glacier. We present a sensitivity analysis of the model to changes in parameters and show the effect of step changes of temperature and precipitation on glacier extent. Our results are placed in context with local lacustrine and marine climate proxies as well

  18. Implementing an empirical scalar constitutive relation for ice with flow-induced polycrystalline anisotropy in large-scale ice sheet models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Felicity S.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Warner, Roland C.; Treverrow, Adam

    2018-03-01

    The microstructure of polycrystalline ice evolves under prolonged deformation, leading to anisotropic patterns of crystal orientations. The response of this material to applied stresses is not adequately described by the ice flow relation most commonly used in large-scale ice sheet models - the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally efficient, empirical, scalar, constitutive relation which addresses the influence of the dynamically steady-state flow-compatible induced anisotropic crystal orientation patterns that develop when ice is subjected to the same stress regime for a prolonged period - sometimes termed tertiary flow. We call this the ESTAR flow relation. The effect on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR and Glen flow relations, where we include in the latter an overall flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed in the ESTAR relation. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow across the ice shelf generated by the ESTAR flow relation. For flow line studies of idealised grounded flow over varying topography or variable basal friction - both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear - the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and Glen flow relations depend on the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the deformation of anisotropic ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.

  19. Heliport noise model (HNM) version 1 user's guide

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1988-02-01

    This document contains the instructions to execute the Heliport Noise Model (HNM), Version 1. HNM Version 1 is a computer tool for determining the total impact of helicopter noise at and around heliports. The model runs on IBM PC/XT/AT personal compu...

  20. Toward Surface Mass Balance Modeling over Antarctic Peninsula with Improved Snow/Ice Physics within WRF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.

  1. Direct Comparisons of Ice Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties Simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 with HIPPO Aircraft Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, C.; Liu, X.; Diao, M.; Zhang, K.; Gettelman, A.

    2015-12-01

    A dominant source of uncertainty within climate system modeling lies in the representation of cloud processes. This is not only because of the great complexity in cloud microphysics, but also because of the large variations of cloud amount and macroscopic properties in time and space. In this study, the cloud properties simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4 (CAM5.4) are evaluated using the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO, 2009-2011). CAM5.4 is driven by the meteorology (U, V, and T) from GEOS5 analysis, while water vapor, hydrometeors and aerosols are calculated by the model itself. For direct comparison of CAM5.4 and HIPPO observations, model output is collocated with HIPPO flights. Generally, the model has an ability to capture specific cloud systems of meso- to large-scales. In total, the model can reproduce 80% of observed cloud occurrences inside model grid boxes, and even higher (93%) for ice clouds (T≤-40°C). However, the model produces plenty of clouds that are not presented in the observation. The model also simulates significantly larger cloud fraction including for ice clouds compared to the observation. Further analysis shows that the overestimation is a result of bias in relative humidity (RH) in the model. The bias of RH can be mostly attributed to the discrepancies of water vapor, and to a lesser extent to those of temperature. Down to the micro-scale level of ice clouds, the model can simulate reasonably well the magnitude of ice and snow number concentration (Ni, with diameter larger than 75 μm). However, the model simulates fewer occurrences of Ni>50 L-1. This can be partially ascribed to the low bias of aerosol number concentration (Naer, with diameter between 0.1-1 μm) simulated by the model. Moreover, the model significantly underestimates both the number mean diameter (Di,n) and the volume mean diameter (Di,v) of ice/snow. The result shows that the underestimation may be related to a weaker positive relationship

  2. Inter-comparison of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice rheology in a fully coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, A.; Cassano, J. J.; Maslowski, W.; Osinski, R.; Seefeldt, M. W.; Hughes, M.; Duvivier, A.; Nijssen, B.; Hamman, J.; Hutchings, J. K.; Hunke, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    We present the sea ice climate of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), using a suite of new physics available in the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE5). RASM is a high-resolution fully coupled pan-Arctic model that also includes the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. The model domain extends from ~45˚N to the North Pole and is configured to run at ~9km resolution for the ice and ocean components, coupled to 50km resolution atmosphere and land models. The baseline sea ice model configuration includes mushy-layer sea ice thermodynamics and level-ice melt ponds. Using this configuration, we compare the use of isotropic and anisotropic sea ice mechanics, and evaluate model performance using these two variants against observations including Arctic buoy drift and deformation, satellite-derived drift and deformation, and sea ice volume estimates from ICESat. We find that the isotropic rheology better approximates spatial patterns of thickness observed across the Arctic, but that both rheologies closely approximate scaling laws observed in the pack using buoys and RGPS data. A fundamental component of both ice mechanics variants, the so called Elastic-Viscous-Plastic (EVP) and Anisotropic-Elastic-Plastic (EAP), is that they are highly sensitive to the timestep used for elastic sub-cycling in an inertial-resolving coupled framework, and this has a significant affect on surface fluxes in the fully coupled framework.

  3. Results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Model Initialisation Experiments ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goelzer, H.; Nowicki, S.; Edwards, T.; Beckley, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Aschwanden, A.; Calov, R.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Golledge, N. R.; Gregory, J. M.; Greve, R.; Humbert, A.; Huybrechts, P.; Larour, E. Y.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Le ´h, S.; Lee, V.; Kennedy, J. H.; Pattyn, F.; Payne, A. J.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Rückamp, M.; Saito, F.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, A.; Sun, S.; Vandewal, R.; Ziemen, F. A.

    2016-12-01

    Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise (initMIP-Greenland) is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss final results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

  4. Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail; hide

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

  5. Evaluation of Icing Scaling on Swept NACA 0012 Airfoil Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tsao, Jen-Ching; Lee, Sam

    2012-01-01

    Icing scaling tests in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) were performed on swept wing models using existing recommended scaling methods that were originally developed for straight wing. Some needed modifications on the stagnation-point local collection efficiency (i.e., beta(sub 0) calculation and the corresponding convective heat transfer coefficient for swept NACA 0012 airfoil models have been studied and reported in 2009, and the correlations will be used in the current study. The reference tests used a 91.4-cm chord, 152.4-cm span, adjustable sweep airfoil model of NACA 0012 profile at velocities of 100 and 150 knot and MVD of 44 and 93 mm. Scale-to-reference model size ratio was 1:2.4. All tests were conducted at 0deg angle of attack (AoA) and 45deg sweep angle. Ice shape comparison results were presented for stagnation-point freezing fractions in the range of 0.4 to 1.0. Preliminary results showed that good scaling was achieved for the conditions test by using the modified scaling methods developed for swept wing icing.

  6. Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

  7. Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

    2017-12-01

    Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated

  8. IceVal DatAssistant: An Interactive, Automated Icing Data Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levinson, Laurie H.; Wright, William B.

    2008-01-01

    As with any scientific endeavor, the foundation of icing research at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is the data acquired during experimental testing. In the case of the GRC Icing Branch, an important part of this data consists of ice tracings taken following tests carried out in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), as well as the associated operational and environmental conditions documented during these tests. Over the years, the large number of experimental runs completed has served to emphasize the need for a consistent strategy for managing this data. To address the situation, the Icing Branch has recently elected to implement the IceVal DatAssistant automated data management system. With the release of this system, all publicly available IRT-generated experimental ice shapes with complete and verifiable conditions have now been compiled into one electronically-searchable database. Simulation software results for the equivalent conditions, generated using the latest version of the LEWICE ice shape prediction code, are likewise included and are linked to the corresponding experimental runs. In addition to this comprehensive database, the IceVal system also includes a graphically-oriented database access utility, which provides reliable and easy access to all data contained in the database. In this paper, the issues surrounding historical icing data management practices are discussed, as well as the anticipated benefits to be achieved as a result of migrating to the new system. A detailed description of the software system features and database content is also provided; and, finally, known issues and plans for future work are presented.

  9. IceVal DatAssistant: An Interactive, Automated Icing Data Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levinson, Laurie H.; Wright, William B.

    2008-01-01

    As with any scientific endeavor, the foundation of icing research at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is the data acquired during experimental testing. In the case of the GRC Icing Branch, an important part of this data consists of ice tracings taken following tests carried out in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT), as well as the associated operational and environmental conditions during those tests. Over the years, the large number of experimental runs completed has served to emphasize the need for a consistent strategy to manage the resulting data. To address this situation, the Icing Branch has recently elected to implement the IceVal DatAssistant automated data management system. With the release of this system, all publicly available IRT-generated experimental ice shapes with complete and verifiable conditions have now been compiled into one electronically-searchable database; and simulation software results for the equivalent conditions, generated using the latest version of the LEWICE ice shape prediction code, are likewise included and linked to the corresponding experimental runs. In addition to this comprehensive database, the IceVal system also includes a graphically-oriented database access utility, which provides reliable and easy access to all data contained in the database. In this paper, the issues surrounding historical icing data management practices are discussed, as well as the anticipated benefits to be achieved as a result of migrating to the new system. A detailed description of the software system features and database content is also provided; and, finally, known issues and plans for future work are presented.

  10. Short-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Hughes, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Persson, O. P. G.

    2015-12-01

    The dramatic decrease of Arctic sea-ice has led to a new Arctic sea-ice paradigm and to increased commercial activity in the Arctic Ocean. NOAA's mission to provide accurate and timely sea-ice forecasts, as explicitly outlined in the National Ocean Policy and the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic Region, needs significant improvement across a range of time scales to improve safety for human activity. Unfortunately, the sea-ice evolution in the new Arctic involves the interaction of numerous physical processes in the atmosphere, ice, and ocean, some of which are not yet understood. These include atmospheric forcing of sea-ice movement through stress and stress deformation; atmospheric forcing of sea-ice melt and formation through energy fluxes; and ocean forcing of the atmosphere through new regions of seasonal heat release. Many of these interactions involve emerging complex processes that first need to be understood and then incorporated into forecast models in order to realize the goal of useful sea-ice forecasting. The underlying hypothesis for this study is that errors in simulations of "fast" atmospheric processes significantly impact the forecast of seasonal sea-ice retreat in summer and its advance in autumn in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). We therefore focus on short-term (0-20 day) ice-floe movement, the freeze-up and melt-back processes in the MIZ, and the role of storms in modulating stress and heat fluxes. This study uses a coupled ocean-atmosphere-seaice forecast model as a testbed to investigate; whether ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupling improves forecasts on subseasonal time scales, where systematic biases develop due to inadequate parameterizations (focusing on mixed-phase clouds and surface fluxes), how increased atmospheric resolution of synoptic features improves the forecasts, and how initialization of sea ice area and thickness and snow depth impacts the skill of the forecasts. Simulations are validated with measurements at pan-Arctic land

  11. A Model for the Formation and Melting of Ice on Surface Waters.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruin, H. A. R.; Wessels, H. R. A.

    1988-02-01

    Ice covers have an important influence on the hydrology of surface waters. The growth of ice layer on stationary waters, such as lakes or canals, depends primarily on meteorological parameters like temperature and humidity of the air, windspeed and radiation balance. The more complicated ice formation in rapidly flowing rivers is not considered in this study. A model is described that simulates ice growth and melting utilizing observed or forecast weather data. The model includes situations with a snow cover. Special attention is given to the optimal estimation of the net radiation and to the role of the stability of the near-surface air. Since a major practical application in the Netherlands is the use of frozen waters for recreation skating, the model is extended to include artificial ice tracks.

  12. Asynchronously Coupled Models of Ice Loss from Airless Planetary Bodies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schorghofer, N.

    2016-12-01

    Ice is found near the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, in some main belt asteroids, and perhaps in NEOs that will be explored or even mined in future. The simple but important question of how fast ice is lost from airless bodies can present computational challenges. The thermal cycle on the surface repeats on much shorter time-scales than ice retreats; one process acts on the time-scale of hours, the other over billions of years. This multi-scale situation is addressed with asynchronous coupling, where models with different time steps are woven together. The sharp contrast at the retreating ice table is dealt with with explicit interface tracking. For Ceres, which is covered with a thermally insulating dust mantle, desiccation rates are orders of magnitude slower than had been calculated with simpler models. More model challenges remain: The role of impact devolatization and the time-scale for complete desiccation of an asteroid. I will also share my experience with code distribution using GitHub and Zenodo.

  13. Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashino, Tempei

    2007-05-01

    This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

  14. Reconstructions of the 1900-2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using the regional climate MAR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Agosta, Cécile; Amory, Charles; Kittel, Christoph; Lang, Charlotte; van As, Dirk; Machguth, Horst; Gallée, Hubert

    2017-04-01

    With the aim of studying the recent Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) decrease relative to the last century, we have forced the regional climate MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional; version 3.5.2) model with the ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis; 1979-2015), ERA-40 (1958-2001), NCEP-NCARv1 (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis version 1; 1948-2015), NCEP-NCARv2 (1979-2015), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis; 1958-2014), 20CRv2(c) (Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2; 1900-2014) and ERA-20C (1900-2010) reanalyses. While all these forcing products are reanalyses that are assumed to represent the same climate, they produce significant differences in the MAR-simulated SMB over their common period. A temperature adjustment of +1 °C (respectively -1 °C) was, for example, needed at the MAR boundaries with ERA-20C (20CRv2) reanalysis, given that ERA-20C (20CRv2) is ˜ 1 °C colder (warmer) than ERA-Interim over Greenland during the period 1980-2010. Comparisons with daily PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) near-surface observations support these adjustments. Comparisons with SMB measurements, ice cores and satellite-derived melt extent reveal the most accurate forcing datasets for the simulation of the GrIS SMB to be ERA-Interim and NCEP-NCARv1. However, some biases remain in MAR, suggesting that some improvements are still needed in its cloudiness and radiative schemes as well as in the representation of the bare ice albedo. Results from all MAR simulations indicate that (i) the period 1961-1990, commonly chosen as a stable reference period for Greenland SMB and ice dynamics, is actually a period of anomalously positive SMB (˜ +40 Gt yr-1) compared to 1900-2010; (ii) SMB has decreased significantly after this reference period due to increasing and unprecedented melt reaching the highest rates in the 120-year common period; (iii) before 1960, both ERA

  15. Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Betancourt, Ricardo Morales; Barahona, Donifan; Nenes, Athanasios

    2016-01-01

    Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

  16. Understanding cirrus ice crystal number variability for different heterogeneous ice nucleation spectra

    DOE PAGES

    Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Morales Betancourt, Ricardo; Barahona, Donifan; ...

    2016-03-03

    Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, N i, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of N i to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand N i variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, andmore » simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of N i sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. In conclusion, N i sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.« less

  17. High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

  18. A Historical Forcing Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kalashnikova, I.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A.

    2014-12-01

    We propose an ice sheet model testing and validation framework for Greenland for the years 2000 to the present. Following Perego et al. (2014), we start with a realistic ice sheet initial condition that is in quasi-equilibrium with climate forcing from the late 1990's. This initial condition is integrated forward in time while simultaneously applying (1) surface mass balance forcing (van Angelen et al., 2013) and (2) outlet glacier flux anomalies, defined using a new dataset of Greenland outlet glacier flux for the past decade (Enderlin et al., 2014). Modeled rates of mass and elevation change are compared directly to remote sensing observations obtained from GRACE and ICESat. Here, we present a detailed description of the proposed validation framework including the ice sheet model and model forcing approach, the model-to-observation comparison process, and initial results comparing model output and observations for the time period 2000-2013.

  19. Modeling concentric crater fill in Utopia Planitia, Mars, with an ice flow line model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weitz, N.; Zanetti, M.; Osinski, G. R.; Fastook, J. L.

    2018-07-01

    Impact craters in the mid-latitudes of Mars are commonly filled to variable degrees with some combination of ice, dust, and rocky debris. Concentric surface features visible in these craters have been linked to debris transportation and glacial and periglacial processes. Concentric crater fill (CCF) observed today are interpreted to be the remains of repeated periods of accumulation and sublimation during the last tens to hundreds of million years. Previous work suggests that during phases of high obliquity, ice accumulates in crater interiors and begins to flow down steep crater slopes, slowly filling the crater. During times of low obliquity ice is protected from sublimation through a surface debris layer consisting of dust and rocky material. Here, we use an ice flow line model to understand the development of concentric crater fill. In a regional study of Utopia Planitia craters, we address questions about the influence of crater size on the CCF formation process, the time scales needed to fill an impact crater with ice, and explore commonly described flow features of CCF. We show that observed surface debris deposits as well as asymmetric flow features can be reproduced with the model. Using surface mass balance data from global climate models and a credible obliquity scenario, we find that craters less than 80 km in diameter can be entirely filled in less than 8 My, beginning as recently as 40 Ma ago. Uncertainties in input variables related to ice viscosity do not change the overall behavior of ice flow and the filling process. We model CCF for the Utopia Planitia region and find subtle trends for crater size versus fill level, crater size versus sublimation reduction by the surface debris layer, and crater floor elevation versus fill level.

  20. Flight Testing an Iced Business Jet for Flight Simulation Model Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Lee, Sam; Cooper, Jon

    2007-01-01

    A flight test of a business jet aircraft with various ice accretions was performed to obtain data to validate flight simulation models developed through wind tunnel tests. Three types of ice accretions were tested: pre-activation roughness, runback shapes that form downstream of the thermal wing ice protection system, and a wing ice protection system failure shape. The high fidelity flight simulation models of this business jet aircraft were validated using a software tool called "Overdrive." Through comparisons of flight-extracted aerodynamic forces and moments to simulation-predicted forces and moments, the simulation models were successfully validated. Only minor adjustments in the simulation database were required to obtain adequate match, signifying the process used to develop the simulation models was successful. The simulation models were implemented in the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device (ICEFTD) to enable company pilots to evaluate flight characteristics of the simulation models. By and large, the pilots confirmed good similarities in the flight characteristics when compared to the real airplane. However, pilots noted pitch up tendencies at stall with the flaps extended that were not representative of the airplane and identified some differences in pilot forces. The elevator hinge moment model and implementation of the control forces on the ICEFTD were identified as a driver in the pitch ups and control force issues, and will be an area for future work.

  1. Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

    2013-04-01

    Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

  2. Comparison of LEWICE and GlennICE in the SLD Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, William B.; Potapczuk, Mark G.; Levinson, Laurie H.

    2008-01-01

    A research project is underway at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from two different computer programs. The first program, LEWICE version 3.2.2, has been reported on previously. The second program is GlennICE version 0.1. An extensive comparison of the results in a quantifiable manner against the database of ice shapes that have been generated in the GRC Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed, including additional data taken to extend the database in the Super-cooled Large Drop (SLD) regime. This paper will show the differences in ice shape between LEWICE 3.2.2, GlennICE, and experimental data. This report will also provide a description of both programs. Comparisons are then made to recent additions to the SLD database and selected previous cases. Quantitative comparisons are shown for horn height, horn angle, icing limit, area, and leading edge thickness. The results show that the predicted results for both programs are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.

  3. Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2012-06-01

    A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

  4. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-09-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

  5. Development of a balloon-borne device for analysis of high-altitude ice and aerosol particulates: Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boaggio, K.; Bandamede, M.; Bancroft, L.; Hurler, K.; Magee, N. B.

    2016-12-01

    We report on details of continuing instrument development and deployment of a novel balloon-borne device for capturing and characterizing atmospheric ice and aerosol particles, the Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball). The device is designed to capture and preserve cirrus ice particles, maintaining them at cold equilibrium temperatures, so that high-altitude particles can recovered, transferred intact, and then imaged under SEM at an unprecedented resolution (approximately 3 nm maximum resolution). In addition to cirrus ice particles, high altitude aerosol particles are also captured, imaged, and analyzed for geometry, chemical composition, and activity as ice nucleating particles. Prototype versions of ICE-Ball have successfully captured and preserved high altitude ice particles and aerosols, then returned them for recovery and SEM imaging and analysis. New improvements include 1) ability to capture particles from multiple narrowly-defined altitudes on a single payload, 2) high quality measurements of coincident temperature, humidity, and high-resolution video at capture altitude, 3) ability to capture particles during both ascent and descent, 4) better characterization of particle collection volume and collection efficiency, and 5) improved isolation and characterization of capture-cell cryo environment. This presentation provides detailed capability specifications for anyone interested in using measurements, collaborating on continued instrument development, or including this instrument in ongoing or future field campaigns.

  6. Engineer Measures Ice Formation on an Instrument Antenna Model

    NASA Image and Video Library

    1945-05-21

    A National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics (NACA) researcher measures the ice thickness on a landing antenna model in the Icing Research Tunnel at the Aircraft Engine Research Laboratory. NACA design engineers added the Icing Research Tunnel to the original layout of the new Aircraft Engine Research Laboratory to take advantage of the massive refrigeration system being built for the Altitude Wind Tunnel. The Icing Research Tunnel was built to study the formation of ice on aircraft surfaces and methods of preventing or eradicating that ice. Ice buildup adds extra weight, effects aerodynamics, and sometimes blocks air flow through engines. The Icing Research Tunnel is a closed-loop atmospheric wind tunnel with a 6- by 9-foot test section. Carrier Corporation refrigeration equipment reduced the internal air temperature to -45 degrees F and a spray bar system injected water droplets into the air stream. The 24-foot diameter drive fan, seen in this photograph, created air flows velocities up to 400 miles per hour. The Icing Research Tunnel began testing in June of 1944. Early testing, seen in this photograph, studied ice accumulation on propellers and antenna of a military aircraft. The Icing Research Tunnel’s designers, however, struggled to develop a realistic spray system since they did not have access to data on the size of naturally occurring water droplets. The system would have to generate small droplets, distribute them uniformly throughout the airstream, and resist freezing and blockage. For five years a variety of different designs were painstakingly developed and tested before the system was perfected.

  7. Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

    2017-04-01

    Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

  8. Wave effects on ocean-ice interaction in the marginal ice zone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Antony K.; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Peng, Chih Y.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of wave train on ice-ocean interaction in the marginal ice zone are studied through numerical modeling. A coupled two-dimensional ice-ocean model has been developed to include wave effects and wind stress for the predictions of ice edge dynamics. The sea ice model is coupled to the reduced-gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The main dynamic balance in the ice momentum is between water-ice stress, wind stress, and wave radiation stresses. By considering the exchange of momentum between waves and ice pack through radiation stress for decaying waves, a parametric study of the effects of wave stress and wind stress on ice edge dynamics has been performed. The numerical results show significant effects from wave action. The ice edge is sharper, and ice edge meanders form in the marginal ice zone owing to forcing by wave action and refraction of swell system after a couple of days. Upwelling at the ice edge and eddy formation can be enhanced by the nonlinear effects of wave action; wave action sharpens the ice edge and can produce ice meandering, which enhances local Ekman pumping and pycnocline anomalies. The resulting ice concentration, pycnocline changes, and flow velocity field are shown to be consistent with previous observations.

  9. Ridging and strength in modeling the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flato, Gregory M.; Hibler, William D.

    1995-09-01

    A theory describing evolution of the ice thickness distribution (the probability density of ice thickness) was proposed by Thorndike et al. (1975) and has been used in several sea ice models. The advantage of this theory over the widely used two-level formulation is that it treats ridging explicitly as a redistribution of ice thickness, and ice strength as a function of energy losses incurred by ridge formation. However, the parameterization of these processes remains rather speculative and largely untested, and so our purpose here is to explore these parameterizations using a numerical model based on this theory. The model uses a 160-km resolution grid of the Arctic and 7 years of observed atmospheric forcing data (1979-1985). Monthly oceanic heat flux and current fields are obtained from a 40-km resolution coupled ice-ocean model run separately with the same forcing. By requiring the computed monthly mean ice drift to have the same magnitude as observed buoy drift, we estimate the primary strength parameter: the ratio of total to potential energy change during ridging. This ratio depends on the value of other parameters; however, the standard case has a ratio of 17 which is within the range estimated by Hopkins (1994) in simulations of individual ridging events. The effects of ridge redistribution and shear ridging parameters are illustrated by a series of sensitivity studies and comparisons between observed and modeled ice thickness distributions and ridge statistics. In addition, these comparisons highlight the following shortcomings of the thickness distribution theory as it is presently implemented: first, the process of first-year to multiyear ridge consolidation is ignored; and second, the observed preferential melt of thick ridged ice is not reproduced.

  10. An ice-cream cone model for coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, X. H.; Wang, C. B.; Dou, X. K.

    2005-08-01

    In this study, we use an ice-cream cone model to analyze the geometrical and kinematical properties of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Assuming that in the early phase CMEs propagate with near-constant speed and angular width, some useful properties of CMEs, namely the radial speed (v), the angular width (α), and the location at the heliosphere, can be obtained considering the geometrical shapes of a CME as an ice-cream cone. This model is improved by (1) using an ice-cream cone to show the near real configuration of a CME, (2) determining the radial speed via fitting the projected speeds calculated from the height-time relation in different azimuthal angles, (3) not only applying to halo CMEs but also applying to nonhalo CMEs.

  11. Evaluating Antarctic sea ice predictability at seasonal to interannual timescales in global climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, Sylvain; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Zunz, Violette; Tietsche, Steffen; Day, Jonny; Hawkins, Ed

    2016-04-01

    Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent over recent decades. Although many processes have already been suggested to explain this positive trend, it remains the subject of current investigations. Understanding the evolution of the Antarctic sea ice turns out to be more complicated than for the Arctic for two reasons: the lack of observations and the well-known biases of climate models in the Southern Ocean. Irrespective of those issues, another one is to determine whether the positive trend in sea ice extent would have been predictable if adequate observations and models were available some decades ago. This study of Antarctic sea ice predictability is carried out using 6 global climate models (HadGEM1.2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL CM3, EC-Earth V2, MIROC 5.2 and ECHAM 6-FESOM) which are all part of the APPOSITE project. These models are used to perform hindcast simulations in a perfect model approach. The predictive skill is estimated thanks to the PPP (Potential Prognostic Predictability) and the ACC (Anomaly Correlation Coefficient). The former is a measure of the uncertainty of the ensemble while the latter assesses the accuracy of the prediction. These two indicators are applied to different variables related to sea ice, in particular the total sea ice extent and the ice edge location. This first model intercomparison study about sea ice predictability in the Southern Ocean aims at giving a general overview of Antarctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models.

  12. Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

  13. Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

    2017-03-01

    The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

  14. Numerical modelling and data assimilation of the Larsen B ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula.

    PubMed

    Vieli, Andreas; Payne, Antony J; Du, Zhijun; Shepherd, Andrew

    2006-07-15

    In this study, the flow and rheology of pre-collapse Larsen B ice shelf are investigated by using a combination of flow modelling and data assimilation. Observed shelf velocities from satellite interferometry are used to constrain an ice shelf model by using a data assimilation technique based on the control method. In particular, the ice rheology field and the velocities at the inland shelf boundary are simultaneously optimized to get a modelled flow and stress field that is consistent with the observed flow. The application to the Larsen B ice shelf shows that a strong weakening of the ice in the shear zones, mostly along the margins, is necessary to fit the observed shelf flow. This pattern of bands with weak ice is a very robust feature of the inversion, whereas the ice rheology within the main shelf body is found to be not well constrained. This suggests that these weak zones play a major role in the control of the flow of the Larsen B ice shelf and may be the key to understanding the observed pre-collapse thinning and acceleration of Larsen B. Regarding the sensitivity of the stress field to rheology, the consistency of the model with the observed flow seems crucial for any further analysis such as the application of fracture mechanics or perturbation model experiments.

  15. A scheme for parameterizing ice cloud water content in general circulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Donner, Leo J.

    1989-01-01

    A method for specifying ice water content in GCMs is developed, based on theory and in-cloud measurements. A theoretical development of the conceptual precipitation model is given and the aircraft flights used to characterize the ice mass distribution in deep ice clouds is discussed. Ice water content values derived from the theoretical parameterization are compared with the measured values. The results demonstrate that a simple parameterization for atmospheric ice content can account for ice contents observed in several synoptic contexts.

  16. Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

    2016-12-01

    Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and

  17. A global, high-resolution data set of ice sheet topography, cavity geometry, and ocean bathymetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Arndt, Jan Erik; Savstrup Kristensen, Steen; Mayer, Christoph; Morlighem, Mathieu; Steinhage, Daniel

    2016-10-01

    The ocean plays an important role in modulating the mass balance of the polar ice sheets by interacting with the ice shelves in Antarctica and with the marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland. Given that the flux of warm water onto the continental shelf and into the sub-ice cavities is steered by complex bathymetry, a detailed topography data set is an essential ingredient for models that address ice-ocean interaction. We followed the spirit of the global RTopo-1 data set and compiled consistent maps of global ocean bathymetry, upper and lower ice surface topographies, and global surface height on a spherical grid with now 30 arcsec grid spacing. For this new data set, called RTopo-2, we used the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO_2014) as the backbone and added the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean version 3 (IBCAOv3) and the International Bathymetric Chart of the Southern Ocean (IBCSO) version 1. While RTopo-1 primarily aimed at a good and consistent representation of the Antarctic ice sheet, ice shelves, and sub-ice cavities, RTopo-2 now also contains ice topographies of the Greenland ice sheet and outlet glaciers. In particular, we aimed at a good representation of the fjord and shelf bathymetry surrounding the Greenland continent. We modified data from earlier gridded products in the areas of Petermann Glacier, Hagen Bræ, and Sermilik Fjord, assuming that sub-ice and fjord bathymetries roughly follow plausible Last Glacial Maximum ice flow patterns. For the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland and the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier at about 79° N, we incorporated a high-resolution digital bathymetry model considering original multibeam survey data for the region. Radar data for surface topographies of the floating ice tongues of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier and Zachariæ Isstrøm have been obtained from the data centres of Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Operation Icebridge (NASA

  18. A discrete-element model for viscoelastic deformation and fracture of glacial ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riikilä, T. I.; Tallinen, T.; Åström, J.; Timonen, J.

    2015-10-01

    A discrete-element model was developed to study the behavior of viscoelastic materials that are allowed to fracture. Applicable to many materials, the main objective of this analysis was to develop a model specifically for ice dynamics. A realistic model of glacial ice must include elasticity, brittle fracture and slow viscous deformations. Here the model is described in detail and tested with several benchmark simulations. The model was used to simulate various ice-specific applications with resulting flow rates that were compatible with Glen's law, and produced under fragmentation fragment-size distributions that agreed with the known analytical and experimental results.

  19. Modeling Arctic sea-ice algae: Physical drivers of spatial distribution and algae phenology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castellani, Giulia; Losch, Martin; Lange, Benjamin A.; Flores, Hauke

    2017-09-01

    Algae growing in sea ice represent a source of carbon for sympagic and pelagic ecosystems and contribute to the biological carbon pump. The biophysical habitat of sea ice on large scales and the physical drivers of algae phenology are key to understanding Arctic ecosystem dynamics and for predicting its response to ongoing Arctic climate change. In addition, quantifying potential feedback mechanisms between algae and physical processes is particularly important during a time of great change. These mechanisms include a shading effect due to the presence of algae and increased basal ice melt. The present study shows pan-Arctic results obtained from a new Sea Ice Model for Bottom Algae (SIMBA) coupled with a 3-D sea-ice-ocean model. The model is evaluated with data collected during a ship-based campaign to the Eastern Central Arctic in summer 2012. The algal bloom is triggered by light and shows a latitudinal dependency. Snow and ice also play a key role in ice algal growth. Simulations show that after the spring bloom, algae are nutrient limited before the end of summer and finally they leave the ice habitat during ice melt. The spatial distribution of ice algae at the end of summer agrees with available observations, and it emphasizes the importance of thicker sea-ice regions for hosting biomass. Particular attention is given to the distinction between level ice and ridged ice. Ridge-associated algae are strongly light limited, but they can thrive toward the end of summer, and represent an additional carbon source during the transition into polar night.

  20. Ice Cloud Properties And Their Radiative Effects: Global Observations And Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Yulan

    Ice clouds are crucial to the Earth's radiation balance. They cool the Earth-atmosphere system by reflecting solar radiation back to space and warm it by blocking outgoing thermal radiation. However, there is a lack of an observation-based climatology of ice cloud properties and their radiative effects. Two active sensors, the CloudSat radar and the CALIPSO lidar, for the first time provide vertically resolved ice cloud data on a global scale. Using synergistic signals of these two sensors, it is possible to obtain both optically thin and thick ice clouds as the radar excels in probing thick clouds while the lidar is better to detect the thin ones. First, based on the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar measurements, we have derived a climatology of ice cloud properties. Ice clouds cover around 50% of the Earth surface, and their global-mean optical depth, ice water path, and effective radius are approximately 2 (unitless), 109 g m. {-2} and 48 \\mum, respectively. Ice cloud occurrence frequency not only depends on regions and seasons, but also on the types of ice clouds as defined by optical depth (tau) values. Optically thin ice clouds (tau < 3) are most frequently observed in the tropics around 15 km and in the midlatitudes below 5 km, while the thicker clouds (tau > 3) occur frequently in the tropical convective areas and along the midlatitude storm tracks. Using ice retrievals derived from combined radar-lidar measurements, we conducted radiative transfer modeling to study ice cloud radiative effects. The combined effects of ice clouds warm the earth-atmosphere system by approximately 5 W m-2, contributed by a longwave warming effect of about 21.8 W m-2 and a shortwave cooling effect of approximately -16.7 W m-2. Seasonal variations of ice cloud radiative effects are evident in the midlatitudes where the net effect changes from warming during winter to cooling during summer, and the net warming effect occurs year-round in the tropics (˜ 10 W m-2). Ice cloud

  1. Experimental evidence for modifying the current physical model for ice accretion on aircraft surfaces

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olsen, W.; Walker, E.

    1986-01-01

    Closeup movies, still photographs, and other experimental data suggest that the current physical model for ice accretion needs significant modification. At aircraft airspeeds there was no flow of liquid over the surface of the ice after a short initial flow, even at barely subfreezing temperatures. Instead, there were very large stationary drops on the ice surface that lose water from their bottoms by freezing and replenish their liquid by catching the microscopic cloud droplets. This observation disagrees with the existing physical model, which assumes there is a thin liquid film continuously flowing over the ice surface. With no such flow, the freezing-fraction concept of the model fails when a mass balance is performed on the surface water. Rime ice does, as the model predicts, form when the air temperature is low enough to cause the cloud droplets to freeze almost immediately on impact. However, the characteristic shapes of horn-glaze ice or rime ice are primarily caused by the ice shape affecting the airflow locally and consequently the droplet catch and the resulting ice shape. Ice roughness greatly increases the heat transfer coefficient, stops the movement of drops along the surface, and may also affect the airflow initially and thereby the droplet catch. At high subreezing temperatures the initial flow and shedding of surface drops have a large effect on the ice shape. At the incipient freezing limit, no ice forms.

  2. High resolution sea ice modeling for the region of Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakharov, I.; Prasad, S.; McGuire, P.

    2016-12-01

    A multi-category numerical sea ice model (CICE) with a data assimilation module was implemented to derive sea ice parameters in the region of Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea with resolution higher than 10 km. The model derived ice parameters include concentration, ridge keel measurement, thickness and freeboard. The module for assimilation of ice concentration uses data from the Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and OSI SAF data. The sea surface temperature (SST) data from AMSRE-AVHRR and Operational SST and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) system were used to correct the SST computed by a mixed layer slab ocean model that is used to determine the growth and melt of sea ice. The ice thickness parameter from the model was compared with the measurements from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity - Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (SMOS-MIRAS). The freeboard measures where compared with the Cryosat-2 measurements. A spatial root mean square error computed for freeboard measures was found to be within the uncertainty limits of the observation. The model was also used to estimate the correlation parameter between the ridge and the ridge keel measurements in the region of Makkovik Bank. Also, the level ice draft estimated from the model was in good agreement with the ice draft derived from the upward looking sonar (ULS) instrument deployed in the Makkovik bank. The model corrected with ice concentration and SST from remote sensing data demonstrated significant improvements in accuracy of the estimated ice parameters. The model can be used for operational forecast and climate research.

  3. Modeling brine and nutrient dynamics in Antarctic sea ice: The case of dissolved silica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vancoppenolle, Martin; Goosse, Hugues; de Montety, Anne; Fichefet, Thierry; Tremblay, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis

    2010-02-01

    Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by microalgae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics and an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one nutrient, namely, dissolved silica (DSi). In the model, DSi follows brine motion and is consumed by ice algae. Depending on physical ice characteristics, the brine flow is either advective, diffusive, or turbulent. The vertical profiles of ice salinity and DSi concentration are solutions of advection-diffusion equations. The model is configured to simulate the typical thermodynamic regimes of first-year Antarctic pack ice. The simulated vertical profiles of salinity and DSi qualitatively reproduce observations. Analysis of results highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice. Convection mixes saline, nutrient-poor brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. This implies a rejection of salt to the ocean and a flux of DSi to the ice. In the presence of growing algae, the simulated ocean-to-ice DSi flux increases by 0-115% compared to an abiotic situation. In turn, primary production and brine convection act in synergy to form a nutrient pump. The other important processes are the flooding of the surface by seawater and the percolation of meltwater. The former refills nutrients near the ice surface in spring. The latter, if present, tends to expell nutrients from the ice in summer.

  4. Developing A Model for Lake Ice Phenology Using Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skoglund, S. K.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Ewing, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    Many northern temperate freshwater lakes are freezing over later and thawing earlier. This shift in timing, and the resulting shorter duration of seasonal ice cover, is expected to impact ecological processes, negatively affecting aquatic species and the quality of water we drink. Long-term, direct observations have been used to analyze changes in ice phenology, but those data are sparse relative to the number of lakes affected. Here we develop a model to utilize remote sensing data in approximating the dates of ice-on and ice-off for many years over a variety of lakes. Day and night surface temperatures from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra (MYD11A1 and MOD11A1 data products) for 2002-2017 were utilized in combination with observed ice-on and ice-off dates of Lake Auburn, Maine, to determine the ability of MODIS data to match ground-based observations. A moving average served to interpolate MODIS temperature data to fill data gaps from cloudy days. The nighttime data were used for ice-off, and the daytime measurements were used for ice-on predictions to avoid fluctuations between day and night ice/water status. The 0˚C intercepts of those data were used to mark approximate days of ice-on or ice-off. This revealed that approximations for ice-off dates were satisfactory (average ±8.2 days) for Lake Auburn as well as for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire (average ±8.1 days), while approximations for Lake Auburn ice-on were less accurate and showed consistently earlier-than-observed ice-on dates (average -33.8 days). The comparison of observed and remotely sensed Lake Auburn ice cover duration showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.46. Other remote sensing observations, such as the new GOES-R satellite, and further exploration of the ice formation process can improve ice-on approximation methods. The model shows promise for estimating ice-on, ice-off, and ice cover duration for northern temperate lakes.

  5. Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

    2017-09-01

    We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

  6. Cloud ice: A climate model challenge with signs and expectations of progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waliser, Duane E.; Li, Jui-Lin F.; Woods, Christopher P.; Austin, Richard T.; Bacmeister, Julio; Chern, Jiundar; Del Genio, Anthony; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Kuang, Zhiming; Meng, Huan; Minnis, Patrick; Platnick, Steve; Rossow, William B.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Sun-Mack, Szedung; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Vane, Deborah G.; Walker, Christopher; Wu, Dong

    2009-04-01

    Present-day shortcomings in the representation of upper tropospheric ice clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) lead to errors in weather and climate forecasts as well as account for a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. An ongoing challenge in rectifying these shortcomings has been the availability of adequate, high-quality, global observations targeting ice clouds and related precipitating hydrometeors. In addition, the inadequacy of the modeled physics and the often disjointed nature between model representation and the characteristics of the retrieved/observed values have hampered GCM development and validation efforts from making effective use of the measurements that have been available. Thus, even though parameterizations in GCMs accounting for cloud ice processes have, in some cases, become more sophisticated in recent years, this development has largely occurred independently of the global-scale measurements. With the relatively recent addition of satellite-derived products from Aura/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and CloudSat, there are now considerably more resources with new and unique capabilities to evaluate GCMs. In this article, we illustrate the shortcomings evident in model representations of cloud ice through a comparison of the simulations assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, briefly discuss the range of global observational resources that are available, and describe the essential components of the model parameterizations that characterize their "cloud" ice and related fields. Using this information as background, we (1) discuss some of the main considerations and cautions that must be taken into account in making model-data comparisons related to cloud ice, (2) illustrate present progress and uncertainties in applying satellite cloud ice (namely from MLS and CloudSat) to model diagnosis, (3) show some indications of model improvements, and finally (4) discuss a number of

  7. Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Zhao, Bin; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

  8. Modeling brine and nutrient dynamics in Antarctic sea ice: the case of dissolved silica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vancoppenolle, M.; Goosse, H.; de Montety, A.; Fichefet, T.; Tremblay, B.; Tison, J.

    2009-12-01

    Sea ice ecosystems are characterized by micro-algae living in brine inclusions. The growth rate of ice algae depends on light and nutrient supply. Here, the interactions between nutrients and brine dynamics under the influence of algae are investigated using a one-dimensional model. The model includes snow and ice thermodynamics with brine physics and an idealized sea ice biological component, characterized by one nutrient, namely dissolved silica (DSi). In the model, DSi follows brine motion and is consumed by ice algae. Depending on physical ice characteristics, the brine flow is either advective, diffusive or turbulent. The vertical profiles of ice salinity and DSi concentration are solutions of advection-diffusion equations. The model is configured to simulate the typical thermodynamic regimes of first-year Antarctic pack ice. The simulated vertical profiles of salinity and DSi qualitatively reproduce observations. Analysis of results highlights the role of convection in the lowermost 5-10 cm of ice. Convection mixes saline, nutrient-poor brine with comparatively fresh, nutrient-rich seawater. This implies a rejection of salt to the ocean and a flux of DSi to the ice. In presence of growing algae, the simulated ocean-to-ice DSi flux increases by 0-115% compared to an abiotic situation. In turn, primary production and brine convection act in synergy to form a nutrient pump. The other important processes are the flooding of the surface by seawater and the percolation of meltwater. The former refills nutrients near the ice surface in spring. The latter, if present, tends to expell nutrients from the ice in summer. Sketch of salt (left) and nutrient (right) exchanges at the ice-ocean interface proposed in this paper.

  9. Modeling an Ice-rich Lobate Debris Apron in Deuteronilus Mensae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Forget, F.; Marchant, D.

    2010-03-01

    Models help interpret observed glacial deposits and test formation scenarios. We examine a lobate debris apron recently proven to contain pure water ice. Two hypotheses are tested: alcove-only and collapse from a larger ice sheet driven by a GCM.

  10. Investigating and Modeling Ecosystem Response to an Experimental and a Natural Ice Storm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhraei, H.; Driscoll, C. T.; Rustad, L.; Campbell, J. L.; Groffman, P.; Fahey, T.; Likens, G.; Swaminathan, R.

    2017-12-01

    the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC. The model was calibrated to the study watersheds using observations from the natural and experimental ice storms. Future projections for ice storm events were estimated from an advanced climate model and applied to the calibrated PnET-BGC model to simulate future impacts of ice storms on the northern hardwood forests.

  11. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.; Jeffery, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. It is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

  12. Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth, retreat and dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenwood, Sarah L.; Clark, Chris D.

    2009-12-01

    The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel - Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid

  13. Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

    2016-02-18

    The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

  14. The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

  15. Modeling of surface roughness effects on glaze ice accretion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansman, R. John, Jr.; Yamaguchi, Keiko; Berkowitz, Brian M.; Potapczuk, Mark

    1990-01-01

    A series of experimental investigations focused on studying the cause and effect of roughness on accreting glaze ice surfaces were conducted. Detailed microvideo observations were made of glaze ice accretions on 1 to 4 inch diameter cylinders in three icing wind tunnels (the Data Products of New England six inch test facility, the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel, and the B. F. Goodrich Ice Protection Research Facility). Infrared thermal video recordings were made of accreting ice surfaces in the Goodrich facility. Distinct zones of surface water behavior were observed; a smooth wet zone in the stagnation region with a uniform water film; a rough zone where surface tension effects caused coalescence of surface water into stationary beads; a horn zone where roughness elements grow into horn shapes; a runback zone where surface water ran back as rivulets; and a dry zone where rime feathers formed. The location of the transition from the smooth to the rough zone was found to migrate with time towards the stagnation point. The behavior of the transition appeared to be controlled by boundary layer transition and bead formation mechanisms at the interface between the smooth and rough zones. Regions of wet ice growth and enhanced heat transfer were clearly visible in the infrared video recordings of glaze ice surfaces. A simple multi-zone modification to the current glaze ice accretion model was proposed to include spatial variability in surface roughness.

  16. Direct calculation of ice homogeneous nucleation rate for a molecular model of water.

    PubMed

    Haji-Akbari, Amir; Debenedetti, Pablo G

    2015-08-25

    Ice formation is ubiquitous in nature, with important consequences in a variety of environments, including biological cells, soil, aircraft, transportation infrastructure, and atmospheric clouds. However, its intrinsic kinetics and microscopic mechanism are difficult to discern with current experiments. Molecular simulations of ice nucleation are also challenging, and direct rate calculations have only been performed for coarse-grained models of water. For molecular models, only indirect estimates have been obtained, e.g., by assuming the validity of classical nucleation theory. We use a path sampling approach to perform, to our knowledge, the first direct rate calculation of homogeneous nucleation of ice in a molecular model of water. We use TIP4P/Ice, the most accurate among existing molecular models for studying ice polymorphs. By using a novel topological approach to distinguish different polymorphs, we are able to identify a freezing mechanism that involves a competition between cubic and hexagonal ice in the early stages of nucleation. In this competition, the cubic polymorph takes over because the addition of new topological structural motifs consistent with cubic ice leads to the formation of more compact crystallites. This is not true for topological hexagonal motifs, which give rise to elongated crystallites that are not able to grow. This leads to transition states that are rich in cubic ice, and not the thermodynamically stable hexagonal polymorph. This mechanism provides a molecular explanation for the earlier experimental and computational observations of the preference for cubic ice in the literature.

  17. Direct calculation of ice homogeneous nucleation rate for a molecular model of water

    PubMed Central

    Haji-Akbari, Amir; Debenedetti, Pablo G.

    2015-01-01

    Ice formation is ubiquitous in nature, with important consequences in a variety of environments, including biological cells, soil, aircraft, transportation infrastructure, and atmospheric clouds. However, its intrinsic kinetics and microscopic mechanism are difficult to discern with current experiments. Molecular simulations of ice nucleation are also challenging, and direct rate calculations have only been performed for coarse-grained models of water. For molecular models, only indirect estimates have been obtained, e.g., by assuming the validity of classical nucleation theory. We use a path sampling approach to perform, to our knowledge, the first direct rate calculation of homogeneous nucleation of ice in a molecular model of water. We use TIP4P/Ice, the most accurate among existing molecular models for studying ice polymorphs. By using a novel topological approach to distinguish different polymorphs, we are able to identify a freezing mechanism that involves a competition between cubic and hexagonal ice in the early stages of nucleation. In this competition, the cubic polymorph takes over because the addition of new topological structural motifs consistent with cubic ice leads to the formation of more compact crystallites. This is not true for topological hexagonal motifs, which give rise to elongated crystallites that are not able to grow. This leads to transition states that are rich in cubic ice, and not the thermodynamically stable hexagonal polymorph. This mechanism provides a molecular explanation for the earlier experimental and computational observations of the preference for cubic ice in the literature. PMID:26240318

  18. Implementation of Combined Feather and Surface-Normal Ice Growth Models in LEWICE/X

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Velazquez, M. T.; Hansman, R. J., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Experimental observations have shown that discrete rime ice growths called feathers, which grow in approximately the direction of water droplet impingement, play an important role in the growth of ice on accreting surfaces for some thermodynamic conditions. An improved physical model of ice accretion has been implemented in the LEWICE 2D panel-based ice accretion code maintained by the NASA Lewis Research Center. The LEWICE/X model of ice accretion explicitly simulates regions of feather growth within the framework of the LEWICE model. Water droplets impinging on an accreting surface are withheld from the normal LEWICE mass/energy balance and handled in a separate routine; ice growth resulting from these droplets is performed with enhanced convective heat transfer approximately along droplet impingement directions. An independent underlying ice shape is grown along surface normals using the unmodified LEWICE method. The resulting dual-surface ice shape models roughness-induced feather growth observed in icing wind tunnel tests. Experiments indicate that the exact direction of feather growth is dependent on external conditions. Data is presented to support a linear variation of growth direction with temperature and cloud water content. Test runs of LEWICE/X indicate that the sizes of surface regions containing feathers are influenced by initial roughness element height. This suggests that a previous argument that feather region size is determined by boundary layer transition may be incorrect. Simulation results for two typical test cases give improved shape agreement over unmodified LEWICE.

  19. Testing the reliability of ice-cream cone model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Z.; Shen, C.; Wang, Y.; Liu, K.

    2013-12-01

    Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)'s properties are important to not only the physical scene itself but spaceweather prediction. Several models(such as cone model, GCS model, and so on) have been raised to get rid of the projection effects within the properties observated by spacecraft. According to SOHO/ LASCO observations, we obtain the 'real' 3D parameters of 33 FFHCMEs (front-side full halo Coronal Mass Ejections) within the 24th solar cycle by the ice-cream cone model. Considering that the method to obtain 3D parameters from the CME observations by multi-satellite and multi-angle has higher accuracy, we use the GCS model to obtain the real propagation parameters of these CMEs in 3D space and compare the results with which by ice-cream cone model. It was demonstrated that the correlation coefficient for the speeds by using these both methods is 0.97.

  20. MIZEX. A Program for Mesoscale Air-Ice-Ocean Interaction Experiments in Arctic Marginal Ice Zones. III. Modeling the Marginal Ice Zone,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-04-01

    Ii TS C]r.I2 TAB 0] Unzanro’ unoed 0 justi fica ~r: 0 April 1984 vs - ASValabilitY Codes lvyall and/or U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering...coupled model. Fig. 1. Annual average simulated velocity fields. 3 192 Aloka 190 / 902 190+ WOO S’,. o Ice OnlY Mod" D"’, 55*w F~tth Yea’ Ice Ocean Model...A more precise delinga- inflow boundary conditions. 12 4- a. [ o ll ii traspert 00 0 0- 0e a I " i i , - - I I 1161 63 15 67 69 Ti 73 75 77 1980 *= 4h

  1. Data-Driven Modeling and Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We present results of data-driven predictive analyses of sea ice over the main Arctic regions. Our approach relies on the Multilayer Stochastic Modeling (MSM) framework of Kondrashov, Chekroun and Ghil [Physica D, 2015] and it leads to probabilistic prognostic models of sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies on seasonal time scales. This approach is applied to monthly time series of state-of-the-art data-adaptive decompositions of SIC and selected climate variables over the Arctic. We evaluate the predictive skill of MSM models by performing retrospective forecasts with "no-look ahead" for up to 6-months ahead. It will be shown in particular that the memory effects included intrinsically in the formulation of our non-Markovian MSM models allow for improvements of the prediction skill of large-amplitude SIC anomalies in certain Arctic regions on the one hand, and of September Sea Ice Extent, on the other. Further improvements allowed by the MSM framework will adopt a nonlinear formulation and explore next-generation data-adaptive decompositions, namely modification of Principal Oscillation Patterns (POPs) and rotated Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA).

  2. Modeling the morphogenesis of brine channels in sea ice.

    PubMed

    Kutschan, B; Morawetz, K; Gemming, S

    2010-03-01

    Brine channels are formed in sea ice under certain constraints and represent a habitat of different microorganisms. The complex system depends on a number of various quantities as salinity, density, pH value, or temperature. Each quantity governs the process of brine channel formation. There exists a strong link between bulk salinity and the presence of brine drainage channels in growing ice with respect to both the horizontal and vertical planes. We develop a suitable phenomenological model for the formation of brine channels both referring to the Ginzburg-Landau theory of phase transitions as well as to the chemical basis of morphogenesis according to Turing. It is possible to conclude from the critical wave number on the size of the structure and the critical parameters. The theoretically deduced transition rates have the same magnitude as the experimental values. The model creates channels of similar size as observed experimentally. An extension of the model toward channels with different sizes is possible. The microstructure of ice determines the albedo feedback and plays therefore an important role for large-scale global circulation models.

  3. Refreezing on the Greenland ice sheet: a model comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steger, Christian; Reijmer, Carleen; van den Broeke, Michiel; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Noël, Brice

    2016-04-01

    Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is an important contributor to global sea level rise. Besides calving, surface melt is the dominant source of mass loss. However, only part of the surface melt leaves the ice sheet as runoff whereas the other part percolates into the snow cover and refreezes. Due to this process, part of the meltwater is (intermediately) stored. Refreezing thus impacts the surface mass balance of the ice sheet but it also affects the vertical structure of the snow cover due to transport of mass and energy. Due to the sparse availability of in situ data and the demand of future projections, it is inevitable to use numerical models to simulate refreezing and related processes. Currently, the magnitude of refrozen mass is neither well constrained nor well validated. In this study, we model the snow and firn layer, and compare refreezing on the GrIS as modelled with two different numerical models. Both models are forced with meteorological data from the regional climate model RACMO 2 that has been shown to simulate realistic conditions for Greenland. One model is the UU/IMAU firn densification model (FDM) that can be used both in an on- and offline mode with RACMO 2. The other model is SNOWPACK; a model originally designed to simulate seasonal snow cover in alpine conditions. In contrast to FDM, SNOWPACK accounts for snow metamorphism and microstructure and contains a more physically based snow densification scheme. A first comparison of the models indicates that both seem to be able to capture the general spatial and temporal pattern of refreezing. Spatially, refreezing occurs mostly in the ablation zone and decreases in the accumulation zone towards the interior of the ice sheet. Below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) where refreezing occurs in seasonal snow cover on bare ice, the storage effect is only intermediate. Temporal patterns on a seasonal range indicate two peaks in refreezing; one at the beginning of the melt season where

  4. Ice Sheet System Model as Educational Entertainment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, G.

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the importance of polar ice sheets and their role in the evolution of Sea Level Rise (SLR), as well as Climate Change, is of paramount importance for policy makers as well as the public and schools at large. For example, polar ice sheets and glaciers currently account for 1/3 of the SLR signal, a ratio that will increase in the near to long-term future, which has tremendous societal ramifications. Consequently, it is important to increase awareness about our changing planet. In our increasingly digital society, mobile and web applications are burgeoning venues for such outreach. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a software that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/CalTech/NASA, in collaboration with University of California Irvine (UCI), with the goal of better understanding the evolution of polar ice sheets. It is a state-of-the-art framework, which relies on higher-end cluster-computing to address some of the aforementioned challenges. In addition, it is a flexible framework that can be deployed on any hardware; in particular, on mobile platforms such as Android or iOS smart phones. Here, we look at how the ISSM development team managed to port their model to these platforms, what the implications are for improving how scientists disseminate their results, and how a broader audience may familiarize themselves with running complex climate models in simplified scenarios which are highly educational and entertaining in content. We also look at the future plans toward a web portal fully integrated with mobile technologies to deliver the best content to the public, and to provide educational plans/lessons that can be used in grades K-12 as well as collegiate under-graduate and graduate programs.

  5. Outreach/education interface for Cryosphere models using the Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larour, E. Y.; Halkides, D. J.; Romero, V.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.

    2014-12-01

    In the past decade, great strides have been made in the development of models capable of projecting the future evolution of glaciers and the polar ice sheets in a changing climate. These models are now capable of replicating some of the trends apparent in satellite observations. However, because this field is just now maturing, very few efforts have been dedicated to adapting these capabilities to education. Technologies that have been used in outreach efforts in Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences still have not been extended to Cryospheric Science. We present a cutting-edge, technologically driven virtual laboratory, geared towards outreach and k-12 education, dedicated to the polar ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, and their role as major contributors to sea level rise in coming decades. VISL (Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory) relies on state-of-the art Web GL rendering of polar ice sheets, Android/iPhone and web portability using Javascript, as well as C++ simulations (back-end) based on the Ice Sheet System Model, the NASA model for simulating the evolution of polar ice sheets. Using VISL, educators and students can have an immersive experience into the world of polar ice sheets, while at the same exercising the capabilities of a state-of-the-art climate model, all of it embedded into an education experience that follows the new STEM standards for education.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

  6. Results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1, two interrelated marine ice sheet and ocean model intercomparison projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asay-Davis, X.; Galton-Fenzi, B.; Gwyther, D.; Jourdain, N.; Martin, D. F.; Nakayama, Y.; Seroussi, H. L.

    2016-12-01

    MISMIP+ (the third Marine Ice Sheet MIP), ISOMIP+ (the second Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP) and MISOMIP1 (the first Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean MIP) prescribe a set of idealized experiments for marine ice-sheet models, ocean models with ice-shelf cavities, and coupled ice sheet-ocean models, respectively. Here, we present results from ISOMIP+ and MISOMIP1 experiments using several ocean-only and coupled ice sheet-ocean models. Among the ocean models, we show that differences in model behavior are significant enough that similar results can only be achieved by tuning model parameters (the heat- and salt-transfer coefficients across the sub-ice-shelf boundary layer) for each model. This tuning is constrained by a desired mean melt rate in quasi-steady state under specified forcing conditions, akin to tuning the models to match observed melt rates. We compare the evolution of ocean temperature transects, melt rate, friction velocity and thermal driving between ocean models for the five ISOMIP+ experiments (Ocean0-4), which have prescribed ice-shelf topography. We find that melt patterns differ between models based on the relative importance of overturning strength and vertical mixing of temperature even when the models have been tuned to achieve similar melt rates near the grounding line. For the two MISOMIP1 experiments (IceOcean1 without dynamic calving and IceOcean2 with a simple calving parameterization), we compare temperature transects, melt rate, ice-shelf topography and grounded area across models and for several model configurations. Consistent with preliminary results from MISMIP+, we find that for a given coupled model, the use of a Coulomb-limited basal friction parameterization below grounded ice and the application of dynamic calving both significantly increase the rate of grounding-line retreat, whereas the rate of retreat appears to be less sensitive to the ice stress approximation (shallow-shelf approximation, higher-order, etc.). We show that models with similar

  7. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

  8. Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

    DOE PAGES

    Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

    2016-04-01

    Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

  9. Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1998-01-01

    This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the GISS 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric GCM to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

  10. Application of theoretical models to active and passive remote sensing of saline ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, H. C.; Kong, J. A.; Shin, R. T.; Nghiem, S. V.; Kwok, R.

    1992-01-01

    The random medium model is used to interpret the polarimetric active and passive measurements of saline ice. The ice layer is described as a host ice medium embedded with randomly distributed inhomogeneities, and the underlying sea water is considered as a homogeneous half-space. The scatterers in the ice layer are modeled with an ellipsoidal correlation function. The orientation of the scatterers is vertically aligned and azimuthally random. The strong permittivity fluctuation theory is used to calculate the effective permittivity and the distorted Born approximation is used to obtain the polarimetric scattering coefficients. Thermal emissions based on the reciprocity and energy conservation principles are calculated. The effects of the random roughness at the air-ice, and ice-water interfaces are explained by adding the surface scattering to the volume scattering return incoherently. The theoretical model, which has been successfully applied to analyze the radar backscatter data of first-year sea ice, is used to interpret the measurements performed in the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory's CRRELEX program.

  11. Application of theoretical models to active and passive remote sensing of saline ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, H. C.; Kong, Jin AU; Shin, Robert T.; Nghiem, Son V.; Kwok, R.

    1992-01-01

    The random medium model is used to interpret the polarimetric active and passive measurements of saline ice. The ice layer is described as a host ice medium embedded with randomly distributed inhomogeneities, and the underlying sea water is considered as a homogeneous half-space. The scatterers in the ice layer are modeled with an ellipsoidal correlation function. The orientation of the scatterers is vertically aligned and azimuthally random. The strong permittivity fluctuation theory is employed to calculate the effective permittivity and the distorted Born approximation is used to obtain the polarimetric scattering coefficients. We also calculate the thermal emissions based on the reciprocity and energy conservation principles. The effects of the random roughness at the air-ice, and ice-water interfaces are accounted for by adding the surface scattering to the volume scattering return incoherently. The above theoretical model, which has been successfully applied to analyze the radar backscatter data of the first-year sea ice near Point Barrow, AK, is used to interpret the measurements performed in the CRRELEX program.

  12. Unravelling InSAR observed Antarctic ice-shelf flexure using 2-D elastic and viscoelastic modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wild, Christian T.; Marsh, Oliver J.; Rack, Wolfgang

    2018-04-01

    Ice-shelf grounding zones link the Antarctic ice-sheets to the ocean. Differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) is commonly used to monitor grounding-line locations, but also contains information on grounding-zone ice thickness, ice properties and tidal conditions beneath the ice shelf. Here, we combine in-situ data with numerical modelling of ice-shelf flexure to investigate 2-D controls on the tidal bending pattern on the Southern McMurdo Ice Shelf. We validate our results with 9 double-differential TerraSAR-X interferograms. It is necessary to make adjustments to the tidal forcing to directly compare observations with model output and we find that when these adjustments are small (< 1.5 cm) a viscoelastic model matches better, while an elastic model is more robust overall. Within landward embayments, where lateral stresses from surrounding protrusions damp the flexural response, a 2-D model captures behaviour that is missed in simple 1-D models. We conclude that improvements in current tide models are required to allow for the full exploitation of DInSAR in grounding-zone glaciology.

  13. Current Experimental Basis for Modeling Ice Accretions on Swept Wings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vargas, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This work presents a review of the experimental basis for modeling ice accretions on swept wings. Experimental work related to ice accretion physics on swept wings conducted between 1954 and 2004 is reviewed. Proposed models or explanations of scallop formations are singled out and discussed. Special emphasis is placed on reviewing the work done to determine the basic macroscopic mechanisms of scallop formation. The role of feather growth and its connection to scallop growth is discussed. Conceptual steps in modeling scallop formations are presented. Research elements needed for modeling are discussed.

  14. Dynamics of coupled ice-ocean system in the marginal ice zone: Study of the mesoscale processes and of constitutive equations for sea ice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hakkinen, S.

    1984-01-01

    This study is aimed at the modelling of mesoscale processed such as up/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A 2-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model (f-plane) through interfacial stresses. The constitutive equations of the sea ice are formulated on the basis of the Reiner-Rivlin theory. The internal ice stresses are important only at high ice concentrations (90-100%), otherwise the ice motion is essentially free drift, where the air-ice stress is balanced by the ice-water stress. The model was tested by studying the upwelling dynamics. Winds parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwilling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater that air-ocean momentum flux, and thus the Ekman transport is bigger under the ice than in the open water. The upwelling simulation was extended to include temporally varying forcing, which was chosen to vary sinusoidally with a 4 day period. This forcing resembles successive cyclone passings. In the model with a thin oceanic upper layer, ice bands were formed.

  15. The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

    2014-05-01

    The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

  16. Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data

  17. Cirrus Susceptibility to Changes in Ice Nuclei: Physical Processes, Model Uncertainties, and Measurement Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, Eric

    2018-01-01

    One of the proposed concepts for mitigating the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases is seeding cirrus cloud with ice nuclei (IN) in order to reduce the lifetime and coverage of cold cirrus that have a net warming impact on the earth's surface. Global model simulations of the net impact of changing upper tropospheric IN have given widely disparate results, partly as a result of poor understanding of ice nucleation processes in the current atmosphere, and partly as a result of poor representation of these processes in global models. Here, we present detailed process-model simulations of tropical tropopause layer (TTL) transport and cirrus formation with ice nuclei properties based on recent laboratory nucleation experiments and field measurements of aerosol composition. The model is used to assess the sensitivity of TTL cirrus occurrence frequency and microphysical properties to the abundance and efficacy of ice nuclei. The simulated cloud properties compared with recent high-altitude aircraft measurements of TTL cirrus and ice supersaturation. We find that abundant effective IN (either from glassy organic aerosols or crystalline ammonium sulfate with concentrations greater than about 100/L) prevent the occurrences of large ice concentration and large ice supersaturations, both of which are clearly indicated by the in situ observations. We find that concentrations of effective ice nuclei larger than about 50/L can drive significant changes in cirrus microphysical properties and occurrence frequency. However, the cloud occurrence frequency can either increase or decrease, depending on the efficacy and abundance of IN added to the TTL. We suggest that our lack of information about ice nuclei properties in the current atmosphere, as well as uncertainties in ice nucleation processes and their representations in global models, preclude meaningful estimates of climate impacts associated with addition of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere. We will briefly discuss

  18. Performance degradation of a model helicopter rotor with a generic ice shape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Korkan, K. D.; Cross, E. J., Jr.; Miller, T. L.

    1984-01-01

    An experimental program using a commercially available remotely controlled model helicopter in the Texas A&M University (TAMU) subsonic wind tunnel has been conducted to investigate the performance degradation resulting from the simulated formation of ice on the leading edge of the main rotor blades in both hover and forward flight. The rotor blades utilized a NACA 0012 airfoil with a 2.5-in. constant chord. A generic ice shape derived from a predetermined natural ice condition was applied to the 53.375-in.-diameter main rotor, and thrust and torque coefficients were measured for the main rotor as functions of velocity, main rotor rpm, fuselage angle of incidence, collective pitch angle, and spanwise extent of icing. The model helicopter test exhibited significant performance degradation of the main rotor when generic ice was added. An increase of approximately 150 percent in torque coefficient to maintain a constant thrust coefficient was noted when generic ice had been applied to the 85 percent rotor radial location. Also, considerable additional degradation occurred when generic ice was applied to the 100 percent rotor radial location, as compared with the 85 percent simulated ice performance values, indicating the sensitivity of the rotor tip region.

  19. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  20. Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modelling applied to Petermann Glacier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nick, Faezeh M.; Hubbard, Alun; van der Veen, Kees; Vieli, Andreas

    2010-05-01

    Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modelling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

  1. Modeling Studying the Role of Bacteria on ice Nucleation Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.

    2006-12-01

    Certain air-borne bacteria have been recognized as active ice nuclei at the temperatures warm than - 10°C. Ice nucleating bacteria commonly found in plants and ocean surface. These ice nucleating bacteria are readily disseminated into the atmosphere and have been observed in clouds and hailstones, and their importance in cloud formation process and precipitation, as well as causing diseases in plants and animal kingdom, have been considered for over two decades, but their significance in atmospheric processes are yet to be understood. A 1.5-D non-hydrostatic cumulus cloud model with bin-resolved microphysics is developed and is to used to examine the relative importance of sulphate aerosol concentrations on the evolution of cumulus cloud droplet spectra and ice multiplication process, as well as ice initiation process by ice nucleating bacteria in the growing stage of cumulus clouds and the key role of this process on the ice multiplication in the subsequent dissipating stage of cumulus clouds. In this paper, we will present some sensitivity test results of the evolution of cumulus cloud spectra, ice concentrations at various concentrations of sulfate aerosols, and at different ideal sounding profiles. We will discuss the implication of our results in understanding of ice nucleation processes.

  2. A Coupled Ice-Atmosphere-Dust Model for a Neoproterozoic "Mudball Earth"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodman, J. C.; Strom, D.

    2010-12-01

    The Neoproterozoic "Snowball Earth" glaciations remain a subject of intense debate. While many have used field data to argue for either a totally or partially ice-covered Earth, fewer efforts have been made to establish the basic physical climate state and internal dynamics of these alternatives. Description of feedbacks is especially important: how does a globally ice-covered Earth reinforce itself as a stable climate system, and/or sow the seeds for its own destruction? In previous work, we investigated the flow properties of thick floating global ice sheets, and found that flow from pole to equator tends to eliminate regions of thin ice in the tropics. We briefly mentioned that ice flow and sublimation could lead to a "lag deposit" of dust on top of the tropical ice. The consequences of this were explored in detail by Dorian Abbott and others, who found that the accumulation of dust atop tropical ice causes a strong warming effect, which strongly promotes deglaciation of a Snowball climate. However, Abbott et al specified a dust layer ab initio in their GCM simulations, leaving aside the processes which produce it. Here, we present the results of our efforts to add dust processes to an earlier coupled atmosphere/ocean/ice model originally developed by David Pollard and Jim Kasting. Their model includes energy balance equations for the atmosphere and an ice mechanics model for glacial flow. To this we have added variables tracking the fraction of dust incorporated into snow and ice; the transport and accumulation of this dust through ice flow; the effects of dust on albedo and penetration of sunlight into the ice; restriction of evaporation from dust-covered surfaces; and density and buoyancy effects of dusty ice. Dust is added to the surface globally at a fixed rate, and is removed by meltwater runoff. We find that ice in tropical regions of net evaporation quickly develops a surface dust layer which drastically lowers its albedo. This dust layer develops

  3. Scaling Properties of Arctic Sea Ice Deformation in a High‐Resolution Viscous‐Plastic Sea Ice Model and in Satellite Observations

    PubMed Central

    Losch, Martin; Menemenlis, Dimitris

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Sea ice models with the traditional viscous‐plastic (VP) rheology and very small horizontal grid spacing can resolve leads and deformation rates localized along Linear Kinematic Features (LKF). In a 1 km pan‐Arctic sea ice‐ocean simulation, the small‐scale sea ice deformations are evaluated with a scaling analysis in relation to satellite observations of the Envisat Geophysical Processor System (EGPS) in the Central Arctic. A new coupled scaling analysis for data on Eulerian grids is used to determine the spatial and temporal scaling and the coupling between temporal and spatial scales. The spatial scaling of the modeled sea ice deformation implies multifractality. It is also coupled to temporal scales and varies realistically by region and season. The agreement of the spatial scaling with satellite observations challenges previous results with VP models at coarser resolution, which did not reproduce the observed scaling. The temporal scaling analysis shows that the VP model, as configured in this 1 km simulation, does not fully resolve the intermittency of sea ice deformation that is observed in satellite data. PMID:29576996

  4. A laboratory examination of the three-equation model of ice-ocean interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McConnochie, Craig; Kerr, Ross

    2017-11-01

    Numerical models of ice-ocean interactions are typically unable to resolve the transport of heat and salt to the ice face. As such, models rely upon parameterizations that have not been properly validated by data. Recent laboratory experiments of ice-saltwater interactions allow us to test the standard parameterization of heat and salt transport to ice faces - the `three equation model'. We find a significant disagreement in the dependence of the melt rate on the fluid velocity. The three-equation model predicts that the melt rate is proportional to the fluid velocity while the experimental results typically show that the melt rate is independent of the fluid velocity. By considering a theoretical analysis of the boundary layer next to a melting ice face we suggest a resolution to this disagreement. We show that the three-equation model assumes that the thickness of the diffusive sublayer is set by a shear instability. However, at low flow velocities, the sublayer is instead set by a convective instability. This distinction leads to a threshold velocity of approximately 4 cm/s at geophysically relevant conditions, above which the form of the parameterization should be valid. In contrast, at flow speeds below 4 cm/s, the three-equation model will underestimate the melt rate. ARC DP120102772.

  5. Demonstration of the Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) modeling application

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Web-based Interspecies Correlation Estimation (Web-ICE) modeling application is available to the risk assessment community through a user-friendly internet platform (http://epa.gov/ceampubl/fchain/webice/). ICE models are log-linear least square regressions that predict acute...

  6. Modeling CO 2 ice clouds with a Mars Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Audouard, Joachim; Määttänen, Anni; Listowski, Constantino; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, Francois; Spiga, Aymeric

    2016-10-01

    Since the first claimed detection of CO2 ice clouds by the Mariner campaign (Herr and Pimentel, 1970), more recent observations and modelling works have put new constraints concerning their altitude, region, time and mechanisms of formation (Clancy and Sandor, 1998; Montmessin et al., 2007; Colaprete et al., 2008; Määttänen et al., 2010; Vincendon et al., 2011; Spiga et al. 2012; Listowski et al. 2014). CO2 clouds are observed at the poles at low altitudes (< 20 km) during the winter and at high altitudes (60-110 km) in the equatorial regions during the first half of the year. However, Martian CO2 clouds's variability and dynamics remain somehow elusive.Towards an understanding of Martian CO2 clouds and especially of their precise radiative impact on the climate throughout the history of the planet, including their formation and evolution in a Global Climate Model (GCM) is necessary.Adapting the CO2 clouds microphysics modeling work of Listowski et al. (2013; 2014), we aim at implementing a complete CO2 clouds scheme in the GCM of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD, Forget et al., 1999). It covers CO2 microphysics, growth, evolution and dynamics with a methodology inspired from the water ice clouds scheme recently included in the LMD GCM (Navarro et al., 2014).Two main factors control the formation and evolution of CO2 clouds in the Martian atmosphere: sufficient supersaturation of CO2 is needed and condensation nuclei must be available. Topography-induced gravity-waves (GW) are expected to propagate to the upper atmosphere where they produce cold pockets of supersaturated CO2 (Spiga et al., 2012), thus allowing the formation of clouds provided enough condensation nuclei are present. Such supersaturations have been observed by various instruments, in situ (Schofield et al., 1997) and from orbit (Montmessin et al., 2006, 2011; Forget et al., 2009).Using a GW-induced temperature profile and the 1-D version of the GCM, we simulate the formation of CO2

  7. A System of Conservative Regridding for Ice-Atmosphere Coupling in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fischer, R.; Nowicki, S.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.

    2014-01-01

    The method of elevation classes, in which the ice surface model is run at multiple elevations within each grid cell, has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution atmosphere inside a general circulation model (GCM) to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields for use in one-way studies coupling atmospheres and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have failed to conserve mass and energy because the transformation used to regrid to the atmosphere was inconsistent with the transformation used to downscale to the ice model. This would cause problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled atmosphere-ice flow model. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the problem and shows how each of these transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in Glint2, a library used to couple atmosphere models with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

  8. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  9. Fire, ice, water, and dirt: A simple climate model.

    PubMed

    Kroll, John

    2017-07-01

    A simple paleoclimate model was developed as a modeling exercise. The model is a lumped parameter system consisting of an ocean (water), land (dirt), glacier, and sea ice (ice) and driven by the sun (fire). In comparison with other such models, its uniqueness lies in its relative simplicity yet yielding good results. For nominal values of parameters, the system is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters, yielding equilibrium, steady oscillations, and catastrophes such as freezing or boiling oceans. However, stable solutions can be found, especially naturally oscillating solutions. For nominally realistic conditions, natural periods of order 100kyrs are obtained, and chaos ensues if the Milankovitch orbital forcing is applied. An analysis of a truncated system shows that the naturally oscillating solution is a limit cycle with the characteristics of a relaxation oscillation in the two major dependent variables, the ocean temperature and the glacier ice extent. The key to getting oscillations is having the effective emissivity decreasing with temperature and, at the same time, the effective ocean albedo decreases with increasing glacier extent. Results of the original model compare favorably to the proxy data for ice mass variation, but not for temperature variation. However, modifications to the effective emissivity and albedo can be made to yield much more realistic results. The primary conclusion is that the opinion of Saltzman [Clim. Dyn. 5, 67-78 (1990)] is plausible that the external Milankovitch orbital forcing is not sufficient to explain the dominant 100kyr period in the data.

  10. A simple model for the evolution of melt pond coverage on permeable Arctic sea ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popović, Predrag; Abbot, Dorian

    2017-05-01

    As the melt season progresses, sea ice in the Arctic often becomes permeable enough to allow for nearly complete drainage of meltwater that has collected on the ice surface. Melt ponds that remain after drainage are hydraulically connected to the ocean and correspond to regions of sea ice whose surface is below sea level. We present a simple model for the evolution of melt pond coverage on such permeable sea ice floes in which we allow for spatially varying ice melt rates and assume the whole floe is in hydrostatic balance. The model is represented by two simple ordinary differential equations, where the rate of change of pond coverage depends on the pond coverage. All the physical parameters of the system are summarized by four strengths that control the relative importance of the terms in the equations. The model both fits observations and allows us to understand the behavior of melt ponds in a way that is often not possible with more complex models. Examples of insights we can gain from the model are that (1) the pond growth rate is more sensitive to changes in bare sea ice albedo than changes in pond albedo, (2) ponds grow slower on smoother ice, and (3) ponds respond strongest to freeboard sinking on first-year ice and sidewall melting on multiyear ice. We also show that under a global warming scenario, pond coverage would increase, decreasing the overall ice albedo and leading to ice thinning that is likely comparable to thinning due to direct forcing. Since melt pond coverage is one of the key parameters controlling the albedo of sea ice, understanding the mechanisms that control the distribution of pond coverage will help improve large-scale model parameterizations and sea ice forecasts in a warming climate.

  11. SIMPLE MODEL OF ICE SEGREGATION USING AN ANALYTIC FUNCTION TO MODEL HEAT AND SOIL-WATER FLOW.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hromadka, T.V.; Guymon, G.L.

    1984-01-01

    This paper reports on the development of a simple two-dimensional model of coupled heat and soil-water flow in freezing or thawing soil. The model also estimates ice-segregation (frost-heave) evolution. Ice segregation in soil results from water drawn into a freezing zone by hydraulic gradients created by the freezing of soil-water. Thus, with a favorable balance between the rate of heat extraction and the rate of water transport to a freezing zone, segregated ice lenses may form.

  12. Engineering of frustration in colloidal artificial ices realized on microfeatured grooved lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierno, Pietro

    Artificial spin-ice systems, namely lattices of interacting single domain ferromagnetic islands, have been used to date as microscopic models of frustration induced by lattice topology, allowing for the direct visualization of spin arrangements and textures. However, the engineering of frustrated ice states in which individual spins can be manipulated in situ and the real-time observation of their collective dynamics remain both challenging tasks. Inspired by recent theoretical advances, we realize a colloidal version of an artificial spin ice system using interacting polarizable particles confined to lattices of bistable gravitational traps. We show quantitatively that ice-selection rules emerge in this frustrated soft matter system by tuning the strength of the pair-interactions between the microscopic units. Via independent control of particle positioning and dipolar coupling, we introduce monopole-like defects and strings and use loops with defined chirality as an elementary unit to store binary information.

  13. Engineering of frustration in colloidal artificial ices realized on microfeatured grooved lattices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortiz-Ambriz, Antonio; Tierno, Pietro

    2016-02-01

    Artificial spin ice systems, namely lattices of interacting single domain ferromagnetic islands, have been used to date as microscopic models of frustration induced by lattice topology, allowing for the direct visualization of spin arrangements and textures. However, the engineering of frustrated ice states in which individual spins can be manipulated in situ and the real-time observation of their collective dynamics remain both challenging tasks. Inspired by recent theoretical advances, here we realize a colloidal version of an artificial spin ice system using interacting polarizable particles confined to lattices of bistable gravitational traps. We show quantitatively that ice-selection rules emerge in this frustrated soft matter system by tuning the strength of the pair interactions between the microscopic units. Via independent control of particle positioning and dipolar coupling, we introduce monopole-like defects and strings and use loops with defined chirality as an elementary unit to store binary information.

  14. Engineering of frustration in colloidal artificial ices realized on microfeatured grooved lattices

    PubMed Central

    Ortiz-Ambriz, Antonio; Tierno, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    Artificial spin ice systems, namely lattices of interacting single domain ferromagnetic islands, have been used to date as microscopic models of frustration induced by lattice topology, allowing for the direct visualization of spin arrangements and textures. However, the engineering of frustrated ice states in which individual spins can be manipulated in situ and the real-time observation of their collective dynamics remain both challenging tasks. Inspired by recent theoretical advances, here we realize a colloidal version of an artificial spin ice system using interacting polarizable particles confined to lattices of bistable gravitational traps. We show quantitatively that ice-selection rules emerge in this frustrated soft matter system by tuning the strength of the pair interactions between the microscopic units. Via independent control of particle positioning and dipolar coupling, we introduce monopole-like defects and strings and use loops with defined chirality as an elementary unit to store binary information. PMID:26830629

  15. Engineering of frustration in colloidal artificial ices realized on microfeatured grooved lattices.

    PubMed

    Ortiz-Ambriz, Antonio; Tierno, Pietro

    2016-02-01

    Artificial spin ice systems, namely lattices of interacting single domain ferromagnetic islands, have been used to date as microscopic models of frustration induced by lattice topology, allowing for the direct visualization of spin arrangements and textures. However, the engineering of frustrated ice states in which individual spins can be manipulated in situ and the real-time observation of their collective dynamics remain both challenging tasks. Inspired by recent theoretical advances, here we realize a colloidal version of an artificial spin ice system using interacting polarizable particles confined to lattices of bistable gravitational traps. We show quantitatively that ice-selection rules emerge in this frustrated soft matter system by tuning the strength of the pair interactions between the microscopic units. Via independent control of particle positioning and dipolar coupling, we introduce monopole-like defects and strings and use loops with defined chirality as an elementary unit to store binary information.

  16. Do Europa's Mountains Have Roots? Modeling Flow Along the Ice-Water Interface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutler, B. B.; Goodman, J. C.

    2016-12-01

    Are topographic features on the surface of Europa and other icy worlds isostatically compensated by variations in shell thickness (Airy isostasy)? This is only possible if variations in shell thickness can remain stable over geologic time. In this work we demonstrate that local shell thickness perturbations will relax due to viscous flow in centuries. We present a model of Europa's ice crust which includes thermal conduction, viscous flow of ice, and a mobile ice/water interface: the topography along the ice-water interface varies in response to melting, freezing, and ice flow. Temperature-dependent viscosity, conductivity, and density lead to glacier-like flow along the base of the ice shell, as well as solid-state convection in its interior. We considered both small scale processes, such as an isostatically-compensated ridge or lenticula, or heat flux from a hydrothermal plume; and a larger model focusing on melting and flow on the global scale. Our local model shows that ice-basal topographic features 5 kilometers deep and 4 kilometers wide can be filled in by glacial flow in about 200 years; even very large cavities can be infilled in 1000 years. "Hills" (locally thick areas) are removed faster than "holes". If a strong local heat flux (10x global average) is applied to the base of the ice, local melting will be prevented by rapid inflow of ice from nearby. On the large scale, global ice flow from the thick cool pole to the warmer and thinner equator removes global-scale topography in about 1 Ma; melting and freezing from this process may lead to a coupled feedback with the ocean flow. We find that glacial flow at the base of the ice shell is so rapid that Europa's ice-water interface is likely to be very flat. Local surface topography probably cannot be isostatically compensated by thickness variations: Europa's mountains may have no roots.

  17. Cloud Ice: A Climate Model Challenge With Signs and Expectations of Progress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Waliser, D.; Bacmeister, J.; Chern, J.; Del Genio, T.; Jiang, J.; Kharitondov, M.; Liou, K.; Meng, H.; Minnis, P.; Rossow, B.; Stephens, G.; Sun-Mack, S.; Tao, W.; Vane, D.; Woods, C.; Tompkins, A.; Wu, D.

    2007-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs), including those assessed in the IPCC AR4, exhibit considerable disagreement in the amount of cloud ice - both in terms of the annual global mean as well as their spatial variability. Global measurements of cloud ice have been difficult due to the challenges involved in remotely sensing ice water content (IWC) and its vertical profile - including complications associated with multi-level clouds, mixed-phases and multiple hydrometer types, the uncertainty in classifying ice particle size and shape for remote retrievals, and the relatively small time and space scales associated with deep convection. Together, these measurement difficulties make it a challenge to characterize and understand the mechanisms of ice cloud formation and dissipation. Fortunately, there are new observational resources recently established that can be expected to lead to considerable reduction in the observational uncertainties of cloud ice, and in turn improve the fidelity of model representations. Specifically, these include the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, and the CloudSat and Calipso satellite missions, all of which fly in formation in what is referred to as the A-Train. Based on radar and limb-sounding techniques, these new satellite measurements provide a considerable leap forward in terms of the information gathered regarding upper-tropospheric cloud IWC as well as other macrophysical and microphysical properties. In this presentation, we describe the current state of GCM representations of cloud ice and their associated uncertainties, the nature of the new observational resources for constraining cloud ice values in GCMs, the challenges in making model-data comparisons with these data resources, and prospects for near-term improvements in model representations.

  18. GIA Modeling with 3D Rheology and Recent Ice Thickness Changes in Polar Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Der Wal, W.; Wu, P. P.

    2012-12-01

    Models for Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) mainly focus on the response of the solid Earth to ice thickness changes on the scale of thousands of years. However, some of the fastest vertical movement in former glaciated regions is due to changes in ice thickness that occurred within the last 1,000 years. Similar studies for the polar regions are limited, possibly due to a lack of knowledge on past ice sheet thicknesses there. Still, predictions of uplift rate and mass change due to recent ice thickness changes need to improve in order to provide accurate estimates of current mass loss. In order to obtain a measurable response to variations in ice thickness in the last 1,000 years, viscosity in the lithosphere or top of the upper mantle needs to be lower than the mantle viscosity values in conventional GIA models. In the absence of reliable models for recent ice thickness changes we aim to bracket the predicted uplift rates and gravity rates for such changes by assuming simplified past ice growth and melt patterns. Instead of adding a low-viscous layer in the mantle a priori, creep parameters are based on information from experimental constraints, seismology and heatflow measurements. Thus the model includes viscosity varying in space and time. The simulations are performed on a finite element model of a spherical, self-gravitating, incompressible Earth using the commercial software Abaqus. 3D composite rheology is implemented based on temperature fields from heatflow measurements or seismic velocity anomalies. The lithospheric thickness does not need to be specified as the effective elastic thickness is determined by the local effective viscosity. ICE-5G is used as ice loading history while ice changes during and around the Little Ice Age in Greenland are assumed to take place near the coast. A 3D composite rheology has been shown to match historic sea levels well, but uplift rates are somewhat underestimated. With the GIA models that best match uplift rates in

  19. A Multi-Moment Bulkwater Ice Microphysics Scheme with Consideration of the Adaptive Growth Habit and Apparent Density for Pristine Ice in the WRF Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, T. C.; Chen, J. P.; Dearden, C.

    2014-12-01

    The wide variety of ice crystal shapes and growth habits makes it a complicated issue in cloud models. This study developed the bulk ice adaptive habit parameterization based on the theoretical approach of Chen and Lamb (1994) and introduced a 6-class hydrometeors double-moment (mass and number) bulk microphysics scheme with gamma-type size distribution function. Both the proposed schemes have been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) model forming a new multi-moment bulk microphysics scheme. Two new moments of ice crystal shape and volume are included for tracking pristine ice's adaptive habit and apparent density. A closure technique is developed to solve the time evolution of the bulk moments. For the verification of the bulk ice habit parameterization, some parcel-type (zero-dimension) calculations were conducted and compared with binned numerical calculations. The results showed that: a flexible size spectrum is important in numerical accuracy, the ice shape can significantly enhance the diffusional growth, and it is important to consider the memory of growth habit (adaptive growth) under varying environmental conditions. Also, the derived results with the 3-moment method were much closer to the binned calculations. A field campaign of DIAMET was selected to simulate in the WRF model for real-case studies. The simulations were performed with the traditional spherical ice and the new adaptive shape schemes to evaluate the effect of crystal habits. Some main features of narrow rain band, as well as the embedded precipitation cells, in the cold front case were well captured by the model. Furthermore, the simulations produced a good agreement in the microphysics against the aircraft observations in ice particle number concentration, ice crystal aspect ratio, and deposition heating rate especially within the temperature region of ice secondary multiplication production.

  20. Ice bridges and ridges in the Maxwell-EB sea ice rheology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dansereau, Véronique; Weiss, Jérôme; Saramito, Pierre; Lattes, Philippe; Coche, Edmond

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a first implementation of a new rheological model for sea ice on geophysical scales. This continuum model, called Maxwell elasto-brittle (Maxwell-EB), is based on a Maxwell constitutive law, a progressive damage mechanism that is coupled to both the elastic modulus and apparent viscosity of the ice cover and a Mohr-Coulomb damage criterion that allows for pure (uniaxial and biaxial) tensile strength. The model is tested on the basis of its capability to reproduce the complex mechanical and dynamical behaviour of sea ice drifting through a narrow passage. Idealized as well as realistic simulations of the flow of ice through Nares Strait are presented. These demonstrate that the model reproduces the formation of stable ice bridges as well as the stoppage of the flow, a phenomenon occurring within numerous channels of the Arctic. In agreement with observations, the model captures the propagation of damage along narrow arch-like kinematic features, the discontinuities in the velocity field across these features dividing the ice cover into floes, the strong spatial localization of the thickest, ridged ice, the presence of landfast ice in bays and fjords and the opening of polynyas downstream of the strait. The model represents various dynamical behaviours linked to an overall weakening of the ice cover and to the shorter lifespan of ice bridges, with implications in terms of increased ice export through narrow outflow pathways of the Arctic.

  1. Predictions and Studies with a One-Dimensional Ice/Ocean Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    Description of the model c. Initial conditions and forcing Two different test cases are used for model valiCa- tion and scientific studies. One is the...the density of ice (0.92 g/cm 3), AS/J(O0 is and y-components of the current velocity, w the z-com- the salinity difference per mill, assumed to be 30... different treatments of the mixed layer on the Semtner, quickly develops in the CML simulation. In growth and decay of ice. Henceforth, Semtner’s model

  2. Interactive Ice Sheet Flowline Model for High School and College Students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stearns, L. A.; Rezvanbehbahani, S.; Shankar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Teaching about climate and climate change is conceptually challenging. While teaching tools and lesson plans are rapidly evolving to help teachers and students improve their understanding of climate processes, there are very few tools targeting ice sheet and glacier dynamics. We have built an interactive ice sheet model that allows students to explore how Antarctic glaciers respond to different climate perturbations. Interactive models offer advantages that are hard to obtain in traditional classroom settings; users can systematically investigate hypothetical situations, explore the effects of modifying systems, and repeatedly observe how systems interrelate. As a result, this project provides a much-needed bridge between the data and models used by the scientific community and students in high school and college. We target our instructional and assessment activities to three high school and college students with the overall aim of increasing understanding of ice sheet dynamics and the different ways that ice sheets are impacted by climate change, while also improving their fundamental math skills.

  3. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Derived Boundary Conditions for Paleoclimate Simulation: the Refined ICE-6G_D (VM5a) Model and the Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. R.; Vettoretti, G.; Argus, D. F.

    2017-12-01

    Global models of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process are designed to fit a wide range of geophysical and geomorphological observations that simultaneously constrain the internal viscoelastic structure of Earths interior and the history of grounded ice thickness variations that has occurred over the most recent ice-age cycle of the Late Quaternary interval of time. The most recent refinement of the ICE-NG (VMX) series of such global models from the University of Toronto, ICE-6G_C (VM5a), has recently been slightly modified insofar as its Antarctic component is concerned to produce a "_D" version of the structure. This has been chosen to provide the boundary conditions for the next round of model-data inter-comparisons in the context of the international Paleoclimate Modeling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP). The output of PMIP will contribute to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which is now under way. A highly significant test of the utility of this latest model has recently been performed that is focused upon the Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation that was the primary source of climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) of the most recent glacial cycle. By introducing the surface boundary conditions for paleotopography and paleobathymetry, land-sea mask and surface albedo into the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate model configured at full one degree by one degree CMIP5 resolution, together with the appropriate trace gas and orbital insolation forcing, we show that the millennium timescale Dansgard-Oeschger oscillation naturally develops following spin- up of the model into the glacial state.

  4. Cylindrically symmetric Green's function approach for modeling the crystal growth morphology of ice.

    PubMed

    Libbrecht, K G

    1999-08-01

    We describe a front-tracking Green's function approach to modeling cylindrically symmetric crystal growth. This method is simple to implement, and with little computer power can adequately model a wide range of physical situations. We apply the method to modeling the hexagonal prism growth of ice crystals, which is governed primarily by diffusion along with anisotropic surface kinetic processes. From ice crystal growth observations in air, we derive measurements of the kinetic growth coefficients for the basal and prism faces as a function of temperature, for supersaturations near the water saturation level. These measurements are interpreted in the context of a model for the nucleation and growth of ice, in which the growth dynamics are dominated by the structure of a disordered layer on the ice surfaces.

  5. Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e<0.015), the effect of precession is minimal, and the integrated insolation metrics (such as summer metric, PDD, etc.) vary in-phase between the two hemispheres. At higher eccentricities (e>0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

  6. Assessment and validation of the community radiative transfer model for ice cloud conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yi, Bingqi; Yang, Ping; Weng, Fuzhong; Liu, Quanhua

    2014-11-01

    The performance of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) under ice cloud conditions is evaluated and improved with the implementation of MODIS collection 6 ice cloud optical property model based on the use of severely roughened solid column aggregates and a modified Gamma particle size distribution. New ice cloud bulk scattering properties (namely, the extinction efficiency, single-scattering albedo, asymmetry factor, and scattering phase function) suitable for application to the CRTM are calculated by using the most up-to-date ice particle optical property library. CRTM-based simulations illustrate reasonable accuracy in comparison with the counterparts derived from a combination of the Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (DISORT) model and the Line-by-line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM). Furthermore, simulations of the top of the atmosphere brightness temperature with CRTM for the Crosstrack Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are carried out to further evaluate the updated CRTM ice cloud optical property look-up table.

  7. Accuracy of short‐term sea ice drift forecasts using a coupled ice‐ocean model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Arctic sea ice drift forecasts of 6 h–9 days for the summer of 2014 are generated using the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS); the model is driven by 6 h atmospheric forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2). Forecast ice drift speed is compared to drifting buoys and other observational platforms. Forecast positions are compared with actual positions 24 h–8 days since forecast. Forecast results are further compared to those from the forecasts generated using an ice velocity climatology driven by multiyear integrations of the same model. The results are presented in the context of scheduling the acquisition of high‐resolution images that need to follow buoys or scientific research platforms. RMS errors for ice speed are on the order of 5 km/d for 24–48 h since forecast using the sea ice model compared with 9 km/d using climatology. Predicted buoy position RMS errors are 6.3 km for 24 h and 14 km for 72 h since forecast. Model biases in ice speed and direction can be reduced by adjusting the air drag coefficient and water turning angle, but the adjustments do not affect verification statistics. This suggests that improved atmospheric forecast forcing may further reduce the forecast errors. The model remains skillful for 8 days. Using the forecast model increases the probability of tracking a target drifting in sea ice with a 10 km × 10 km image from 60 to 95% for a 24 h forecast and from 27 to 73% for a 48 h forecast. PMID:27818852

  8. Higher-order ice-sheet modelling accelerated by multigrid on graphics cards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brædstrup, Christian; Egholm, David

    2013-04-01

    Higher-order ice flow modelling is a very computer intensive process owing primarily to the nonlinear influence of the horizontal stress coupling. When applied for simulating long-term glacial landscape evolution, the ice-sheet models must consider very long time series, while both high temporal and spatial resolution is needed to resolve small effects. The use of higher-order and full stokes models have therefore seen very limited usage in this field. However, recent advances in graphics card (GPU) technology for high performance computing have proven extremely efficient in accelerating many large-scale scientific computations. The general purpose GPU (GPGPU) technology is cheap, has a low power consumption and fits into a normal desktop computer. It could therefore provide a powerful tool for many glaciologists working on ice flow models. Our current research focuses on utilising the GPU as a tool in ice-sheet and glacier modelling. To this extent we have implemented the Integrated Second-Order Shallow Ice Approximation (iSOSIA) equations on the device using the finite difference method. To accelerate the computations, the GPU solver uses a non-linear Red-Black Gauss-Seidel iterator coupled with a Full Approximation Scheme (FAS) multigrid setup to further aid convergence. The GPU finite difference implementation provides the inherent parallelization that scales from hundreds to several thousands of cores on newer cards. We demonstrate the efficiency of the GPU multigrid solver using benchmark experiments.

  9. BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 5.0: Variables

    Treesearch

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2009-01-01

    This publication has been revised to reflect updates to version 4.0 of the BehavePlus software. It was originally published as the BehavePlus fire modeling system, version 4.0: Variables in July, 2008.The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a computer program based on mathematical models that describe wildland fire behavior and effects and the...

  10. An Improved Model for Nucleation-Limited Ice Formation in Living Cells during Freezing

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Gang; He, Xiaoming

    2014-01-01

    Ice formation in living cells is a lethal event during freezing and its characterization is important to the development of optimal protocols for not only cryopreservation but also cryotherapy applications. Although the model for probability of ice formation (PIF) in cells developed by Toner et al. has been widely used to predict nucleation-limited intracellular ice formation (IIF), our data of freezing Hela cells suggest that this model could give misleading prediction of PIF when the maximum PIF in cells during freezing is less than 1 (PIF ranges from 0 to 1). We introduce a new model to overcome this problem by incorporating a critical cell volume to modify the Toner's original model. We further reveal that this critical cell volume is dependent on the mechanisms of ice nucleation in cells during freezing, i.e., surface-catalyzed nucleation (SCN) and volume-catalyzed nucleation (VCN). Taken together, the improved PIF model may be valuable for better understanding of the mechanisms of ice nucleation in cells during freezing and more accurate prediction of PIF for cryopreservation and cryotherapy applications. PMID:24852166

  11. Constraining ice sheet history in the Weddell Sea, West Antarctica, using ice fabric at Korff Ice Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brisbourne, A.; Smith, A.; Kendall, J. M.; Baird, A. F.; Martin, C.; Kingslake, J.

    2017-12-01

    The grounding history of ice rises (grounded area of independent flow regime within a floating ice shelf) can be used to constrain large scale ice sheet history: ice fabric, resulting from the preferred orientation of ice crystals due to the stress regime, can be used to infer this grounding history. With the aim of measuring the present day ice fabric at Korff Ice Rise, West Antarctica, a multi-azimuth wide-angle seismic experiment was undertaken. Three wide-angle common-midpoint gathers were acquired centred on the apex of the ice rise, at azimuths of 60 degrees to one another, to measure variation in seismic properties with offset and azimuth. Both vertical and horizontal receivers were used to record P and S arrivals including converted phases. Measurements of the variation with offset and azimuth of seismic traveltimes, seismic attenuation and shear wave splitting have been used to quantify seismic anisotropy in the ice column. The observations cannot be reproduced using an isotropic ice column model. Anisotropic ray tracing has been used to test likely models of ice fabric by comparison with the data. A model with a weak girdle fabric overlying a strong cluster fabric provides the best fit to the observations. Fabric of this nature is consistent with Korff Ice Rise having been stable for the order of 10,000 years without any ungrounding or significant change in the ice flow configuration across the ice rise for this period. This observation has significant implications for the ice sheet history of the Weddell Sea sector.

  12. Arctic sea ice signatures: L-band brightness temperature sensitivity comparison using two radiation transfer models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richter, Friedrich; Drusch, Matthias; Kaleschke, Lars; Maaß, Nina; Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan; Mecklenburg, Susanne

    2018-03-01

    Sea ice is a crucial component for short-, medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions. Most importantly, changes of sea ice coverage and areas covered by thin sea ice have a large impact on heat fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere. L-band brightness temperatures from ESA's Earth Explorer SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) have been proven to be a valuable tool to derive thin sea ice thickness. These retrieved estimates were already successfully assimilated in forecasting models to constrain the ice analysis, leading to more accurate initial conditions and subsequently more accurate forecasts. However, the brightness temperature measurements can potentially be assimilated directly in forecasting systems, reducing the data latency and providing a more consistent first guess. As a first step towards such a data assimilation system we studied the forward operator that translates geophysical parameters provided by a model into brightness temperatures. We use two different radiative transfer models to generate top of atmosphere brightness temperatures based on ORAP5 model output for the 2012/2013 winter season. The simulations are then compared against actual SMOS measurements. The results indicate that both models are able to capture the general variability of measured brightness temperatures over sea ice. The simulated brightness temperatures are dominated by sea ice coverage and thickness changes are most pronounced in the marginal ice zone where new sea ice is formed. There we observe the largest differences of more than 20 K over sea ice between simulated and observed brightness temperatures. We conclude that the assimilation of SMOS brightness temperatures yields high potential for forecasting models to correct for uncertainties in thin sea ice areas and suggest that information on sea ice fractional coverage from higher-frequency brightness temperatures should be used simultaneously.

  13. Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flegel, Ashlie B.

    2017-01-01

    Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

  14. Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flegel, Ashlie B.

    2017-01-01

    Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

  15. Ice phase in altocumulus clouds over Leipzig: remote sensing observations and detailed modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simmel, M.; Bühl, J.; Ansmann, A.; Tegen, I.

    2015-09-01

    The present work combines remote sensing observations and detailed cloud modeling to investigate two altocumulus cloud cases observed over Leipzig, Germany. A suite of remote sensing instruments was able to detect primary ice at rather high temperatures of -6 °C. For comparison, a second mixed phase case at about -25 °C is introduced. To further look into the details of cloud microphysical processes, a simple dynamics model of the Asai-Kasahara (AK) type is combined with detailed spectral microphysics (SPECS) forming the model system AK-SPECS. Vertical velocities are prescribed to force the dynamics, as well as main cloud features, to be close to the observations. Subsequently, sensitivity studies with respect to ice microphysical parameters are carried out with the aim to quantify the most important sensitivities for the cases investigated. For the cases selected, the liquid phase is mainly determined by the model dynamics (location and strength of vertical velocity), whereas the ice phase is much more sensitive to the microphysical parameters (ice nucleating particle (INP) number, ice particle shape). The choice of ice particle shape may induce large uncertainties that are on the same order as those for the temperature-dependent INP number distribution.

  16. Ice phase in altocumulus clouds over Leipzig: remote sensing observations and detailed modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simmel, M.; Bühl, J.; Ansmann, A.; Tegen, I.

    2015-01-01

    The present work combines remote sensing observations and detailed cloud modeling to investigate two altocumulus cloud cases observed over Leipzig, Germany. A suite of remote sensing instruments was able to detect primary ice at rather warm temperatures of -6 °C. For comparison, a second mixed phase case at about -25 °C is introduced. To further look into the details of cloud microphysical processes a simple dynamics model of the Asai-Kasahara type is combined with detailed spectral microphysics forming the model system AK-SPECS. Vertical velocities are prescribed to force the dynamics as well as main cloud features to be close to the observations. Subsequently, sensitivity studies with respect to ice microphysical parameters are carried out with the aim to quantify the most important sensitivities for the cases investigated. For the cases selected, the liquid phase is mainly determined by the model dynamics (location and strength of vertical velocity) whereas the ice phase is much more sensitive to the microphysical parameters (ice nuclei (IN) number, ice particle shape). The choice of ice particle shape may induce large uncertainties which are in the same order as those for the temperature-dependent IN number distribution.

  17. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    PubMed Central

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  18. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    PubMed

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  19. Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

    2012-12-01

    We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

  20. Full Stokes finite-element modeling of ice sheets using a graphics processing unit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.

    2016-12-01

    Thermo-mechanical simulation of ice sheets is an important approach to understand and predict their evolution in a changing climate. For that purpose, higher order (e.g., ISSM, BISICLES) and full Stokes (e.g., Elmer/Ice, http://elmerice.elmerfem.org) models are increasingly used to more accurately model the flow of entire ice sheets. In parallel to this development, the rapidly improving performance and capabilities of Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) allows to efficiently offload more calculations of complex and computationally demanding problems on those devices. Thus, in order to continue the trend of using full Stokes models with greater resolutions, using GPUs should be considered for the implementation of ice sheet models. We developed the GPU-accelerated ice-sheet model Sainō. Sainō is an Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/english/pages/elmer) derivative implemented in Objective-C which solves the full Stokes equations with the finite element method. It uses the standard OpenCL language (http://www.khronos.org/opencl/) to offload the assembly of the finite element matrix on the GPU. A mesh-coloring scheme is used so that elements with the same color (non-sharing nodes) are assembled in parallel on the GPU without the need for synchronization primitives. The current implementation shows that, for the ISMIP-HOM experiment A, during the matrix assembly in double precision with 8000, 87,500 and 252,000 brick elements, Sainō is respectively 2x, 10x and 14x faster than Elmer/Ice (when both models are run on a single processing unit). In single precision, Sainō is even 3x, 20x and 25x faster than Elmer/Ice. A detailed description of the comparative results between Sainō and Elmer/Ice will be presented, and further perspectives in optimization and the limitations of the current implementation.

  1. Endangered species toxicity extrapolation using ICE models

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Research Council’s (NRC) report on assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species (T&E) included the recommendation of using interspecies correlation models (ICE) as an alternative to general safety factors for extrapolating across species. ...

  2. Benefits of a 4th Ice Class in the Simulated Radar Reflectivities of Convective Systems Using a Bulk Microphysics Scheme

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Wu, Di; Li, Xiaowen

    2015-01-01

    Numerous cloud microphysical schemes designed for cloud and mesoscale models are currently in use, ranging from simple bulk to multi-moment, multi-class to explicit bin schemes. This study details the benefits of adding a 4th ice class (hail) to an already improved 3-class ice bulk microphysics scheme developed for the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model based on Rutledge and Hobbs (1983,1984). Besides the addition and modification of several hail processes from Lin et al. (1983), further modifications were made to the 3-ice processes, including allowing greater ice super saturation and mitigating spurious evaporationsublimation in the saturation adjustment scheme, allowing graupelhail to become snow via vapor growth and hail to become graupel via riming, and the inclusion of a rain evaporation correction and vapor diffusivity factor. The improved 3-ice snowgraupel size-mapping schemes were adjusted to be more stable at higher mixing rations and to increase the aggregation effect for snow. A snow density mapping was also added. The new scheme was applied to an intense continental squall line and a weaker, loosely-organized continental case using three different hail intercepts. Peak simulated reflectivities agree well with radar for both the intense and weaker case and were better than earlier 3-ice versions when using a moderate and large intercept for hail, respectively. Simulated reflectivity distributions versus height were also improved versus radar in both cases compared to earlier 3-ice versions. The bin-based rain evaporation correction affected the squall line case more but did not change the overall agreement in reflectivity distributions.

  3. ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research

  4. Constraints on Lobate Debris Apron Evolution and Rheology from Numerical Modeling of Ice Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, R.; Nimmo, F.

    2010-12-01

    Recent radar observations of mid-latitude lobate debris aprons (LDAs) have confirmed the presence of ice within these deposits. Radar observations in Deuteronilus Mensae have constrained the concentration of dust found within the ice deposits to <30% by volume based on the strength of the returned signal. In addition to constraining the dust fraction, these radar observations can measure the ice thickness - providing an opportunity to more accurately estimate the flow behavior of ice responsible for the formation of LDAs. In order to further constrain the age and rheology of LDA ice, we developed a numerical model simulating ice flow under Martian conditions using results from ice deformation experiments, theory of ice grain growth based on terrestrial ice cores, and observational constraints from radar profiles and laser altimetry. This finite difference model calculates the LDA profile shape as it flows over time assuming no basal slip. In our model, the ice rheology is determined by the concentration of dust which influences the ice grain size by pinning the ice grain boundaries and halting ice grain growth. By varying the dust fraction (and therefore the ice grain size), the ice temperature, the subsurface slope, and the initial ice volume we are able to determine the combination of parameters that best reproduce the observed LDA lengths and thicknesses over a period of time comparable to crater age dates of LDA surfaces (90 - 300 My, see figure). Based on simulations using different combinations of ice temperature, ice grain size, and basal slope, we find that an ice temperature of 205 K, a dust volume fraction of 0.5% (resulting in an ice grain size of 5 mm), and a flat subsurface slope give reasonable model LDA ages for many LDAs in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. However, we find that there is no single combination of dust fraction, temperature, and subsurface slope which can give realistic ages for all LDAs suggesting that all or some of these

  5. A turbulence model for iced airfoils and its validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shin, Jaiwon; Chen, Hsun H.; Cebeci, Tuncer

    1992-01-01

    A turbulence model based on the extension of the algebraic eddy viscosity formulation of Cebeci and Smith developed for two dimensional flows over smooth and rough surfaces is described for iced airfoils and validated for computed ice shapes obtained for a range of total temperatures varying from 28 to -15 F. The validation is made with an interactive boundary layer method which uses a panel method to compute the inviscid flow and an inverse finite difference boundary layer method to compute the viscous flow. The interaction between inviscid and viscous flows is established by the use of the Hilbert integral. The calculated drag coefficients compare well with recent experimental data taken at the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) and show that, in general, the drag increase due to ice accretion can be predicted well and efficiently.

  6. Antarctic Climate Variability: Covariance of Ozone and Sea Ice in Atmosphere - Ocean Coupled Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jrrar, Amna; Abraham, N. Luke; Pyle, John A.; Holland, David

    2014-05-01

    Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and insulating nature. While Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) shows a negative trend. Antarctic SIE shows a weak but positive trend, estimated at 0.127 x 106 km2 per decade. The trend results from large regional cancellations, more ice in the Weddell and the Ross seas, and less ice in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen seas. A number of studies had demonstrated that stratospheric ozone depletion has had a major impact on the atmospheric circulation, causing a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which has been linked to the observed positive trend in autumn sea ice in the Ross Sea. However, other modelling studies show that models forced with prescribed ozone hole simulate decreased sea ice in all regions comparative to a control run. A recent study has also shown that stratospheric ozone recovery will mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss. To verify this assumed relationship, it is important first to investigate the covariance between ozone's natural (dynamical) variability and Antarctic sea ice distribution in pre-industrial climate, to estimate the trend due to natural variability. We investigate the relationship between anomalous Antarctic ozone years and the subsequent changes in Antarctic sea ice distribution in a multidecadal control simulation using the AO-UMUKCA model. The model has a horizontal resolution of 3.75 X 2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude; and 60 hybrid height levels in the vertical, from the surface up to a height of 84 km. The ocean component is the NEMO ocean model on the ORCA2 tripolar grid, and the sea ice model is CICE. We evaluate the model's performance in terms of sea ice distribution, and we calculate sea ice extent trends for composites of anomalously low versus anomalously high SH polar ozone column. We apply EOF analysis to the seasonal anomalies of sea ice concentration, MSLP, and Z 500, and identify the leading climate modes controlling the

  7. Development of a full ice-cream cone model for halo CME structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Yong-Jae

    2015-04-01

    The determination of three dimensional parameters (e.g., radial speed, angular width, source location) of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is very important for space weather forecast. To estimate these parameters, several cone models based on a flat cone or a shallow ice-cream cone with spherical front have been suggested. In this study, we investigate which cone model is proper for halo CME morphology using 33 CMEs which are identified as halo CMEs by one spacecraft (SOHO or STEREO-A or B) and as limb CMEs by the other ones. From geometrical parameters of these CMEs such as their front curvature, we find that near full ice-cream cone CMEs (28 events) are dominant over shallow ice-cream cone CMEs (5 events). So we develop a new full ice-cream cone model by assuming that a full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. This model is carried out by the following steps: (1) construct a cone for given height and angular width, (2) project the cone onto the sky plane, (3) select points comprising the outer boundary, (4) minimize the difference between the estimated projection points with the observed ones. We apply this model to several halo CMEs and compare the results with those from other methods such as a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model and a geometrical triangulation method.

  8. Modeling and Detection of Ice Particle Accretion in Aircraft Engine Compression Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    May, Ryan D.; Simon, Donald L.; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2012-01-01

    The accretion of ice particles in the core of commercial aircraft engines has been an ongoing aviation safety challenge. While no accidents have resulted from this phenomenon to date, numerous engine power loss events ranging from uneventful recoveries to forced landings have been recorded. As a first step to enabling mitigation strategies during ice accretion, a detection scheme must be developed that is capable of being implemented on board modern engines. In this paper, a simple detection scheme is developed and tested using a realistic engine simulation with approximate ice accretion models based on data from a compressor design tool. These accretion models are implemented as modified Low Pressure Compressor maps and have the capability to shift engine performance based on a specified level of ice blockage. Based on results from this model, it is possible to detect the accretion of ice in the engine core by observing shifts in the typical sensed engine outputs. Results are presented in which, for a 0.1 percent false positive rate, a true positive detection rate of 98 percent is achieved.

  9. Aerodynamic Effects of Simulated Ice Accretion on a Generic Transport Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broeren, Andy P.; Lee, Sam; Shah, Gautam H.; Murphy, Patrick C.

    2012-01-01

    An experimental research effort was begun to develop a database of airplane aerodynamic characteristics with simulated ice accretion over a large range of incidence and sideslip angles. Wind-tunnel testing was performed at the NASA Langley 12-ft Low-Speed Wind Tunnel using a 3.5 percent scale model of the NASA Langley Generic Transport Model. Aerodynamic data were acquired from a six-component force and moment balance in static-model sweeps from alpha = -5deg to 85deg and beta = -45 deg to 45 deg at a Reynolds number of 0.24 x10(exp 6) and Mach number of 0.06. The 3.5 percent scale GTM was tested in both the clean configuration and with full-span artificial ice shapes attached to the leading edges of the wing, horizontal and vertical tail. Aerodynamic results for the clean airplane configuration compared favorably with similar experiments carried out on a 5.5 percent scale GTM. The addition of the large, glaze-horn type ice shapes did result in an increase in airplane drag coefficient but had little effect on the lift and pitching moment. The lateral-directional characteristics showed mixed results with a small effect of the ice shapes observed in some cases. The flow visualization images revealed the presence and evolution of a spanwise-running vortex on the wing that was the dominant feature of the flowfield for both clean and iced configurations. The lack of ice-induced performance and flowfield effects observed in this effort was likely due to Reynolds number effects for the clean configuration. Estimates of full-scale baseline performance were included in this analysis to illustrate the potential icing effects.

  10. Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

  11. The relevance of grain dissection for grain size reduction in polar ice: insights from numerical models and ice core microstructure analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbach, Florian; Kuiper, Ernst-Jan N.; Eichler, Jan; Bons, Paul D.; Drury, Martyn R.; Griera, Albert; Pennock, Gill M.; Weikusat, Ilka

    2017-09-01

    The flow of ice depends on the properties of the aggregate of individual ice crystals, such as grain size or lattice orientation distributions. Therefore, an understanding of the processes controlling ice micro-dynamics is needed to ultimately develop a physically based macroscopic ice flow law. We investigated the relevance of the process of grain dissection as a grain-size-modifying process in natural ice. For that purpose, we performed numerical multi-process microstructure modelling and analysed microstructure and crystallographic orientation maps from natural deep ice-core samples from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) project. Full crystallographic orientations measured by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) have been used together with c-axis orientations using an optical technique (Fabric Analyser). Grain dissection is a feature of strain-induced grain boundary migration. During grain dissection, grain boundaries bulge into a neighbouring grain in an area of high dislocation energy and merge with the opposite grain boundary. This splits the high dislocation-energy grain into two parts, effectively decreasing the local grain size. Currently, grain size reduction in ice is thought to be achieved by either the progressive transformation from dislocation walls into new high-angle grain boundaries, called subgrain rotation or polygonisation, or bulging nucleation that is assisted by subgrain rotation. Both our time-resolved numerical modelling and NEEM ice core samples show that grain dissection is a common mechanism during ice deformation and can provide an efficient process to reduce grain sizes and counter-act dynamic grain-growth in addition to polygonisation or bulging nucleation. Thus, our results show that solely strain-induced boundary migration, in absence of subgrain rotation, can reduce grain sizes in polar ice, in particular if strain energy gradients are high. We describe the microstructural characteristics that can be used to

  12. Operationally Monitoring Sea Ice at the Canadian Ice Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Abreu, R.; Flett, D.; Carrieres, T.; Falkingham, J.

    2004-05-01

    The Canadian Ice Service (CIS) of the Meteorological Service of Canada promotes safe and efficient maritime operations and protects Canada's environment by providing reliable and timely information about ice and iceberg conditions in Canadian waters. Daily and seasonal charts describing the extent, type and concentration of sea ice and icebergs are provided to support navigation and other activities (e.g. oil and gas) in coastal waters. The CIS relies on a suite of spaceborne visible, infrared and microwave sensors to operationally monitor ice conditions in Canadian coastal and inland waterways. These efforts are complemented by operational sea ice models that are customized and run at the CIS. The archive of these data represent a 35 year archive of ice conditions and have proven to be a valuable dataset for historical sea ice analysis. This presentation will describe the daily integration of remote sensing observations and modelled ice conditions used to produce ice and iceberg products. A review of the decadal evolution of this process will be presented, as well as a glimpse into the future of ice and iceberg monitoring. Examples of the utility of the CIS digital sea ice archive for climate studies will also be presented.

  13. Ice Flow in the North East Greenland Ice Stream

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joughin, Ian; Kwok, Ron; Fahnestock, M.; MacAyeal, Doug

    1999-01-01

    Early observations with ERS-1 SAR image data revealed a large ice stream in North East Greenland (Fahnestock 1993). The ice stream has a number of the characteristics of the more closely studied ice streams in Antarctica, including its large size and gross geometry. The onset of rapid flow close to the ice divide and the evolution of its flow pattern, however, make this ice stream unique. These features can be seen in the balance velocities for the ice stream (Joughin 1997) and its outlets. The ice stream is identifiable for more than 700 km, making it much longer than any other flow feature in Greenland. Our research goals are to gain a greater understanding of the ice flow in the northeast Greenland ice stream and its outlet glaciers in order to assess their impact on the past, present, and future mass balance of the ice sheet. We will accomplish these goals using a combination of remotely sensed data and ice sheet models. We are using satellite radar interferometry data to produce a complete maps of velocity and topography over the entire ice stream. We are in the process of developing methods to use these data in conjunction with existing ice sheet models similar to those that have been used to improve understanding of the mechanics of flow in Antarctic ice streams.

  14. Ice-Borehole Probe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Behar, Alberto; Carsey, Frank; Lane, Arthur; Engelhardt, Herman

    2006-01-01

    An instrumentation system has been developed for studying interactions between a glacier or ice sheet and the underlying rock and/or soil. Prior borehole imaging systems have been used in well-drilling and mineral-exploration applications and for studying relatively thin valley glaciers, but have not been used for studying thick ice sheets like those of Antarctica. The system includes a cylindrical imaging probe that is lowered into a hole that has been bored through the ice to the ice/bedrock interface by use of an established hot-water-jet technique. The images acquired by the cameras yield information on the movement of the ice relative to the bedrock and on visible features of the lower structure of the ice sheet, including ice layers formed at different times, bubbles, and mineralogical inclusions. At the time of reporting the information for this article, the system was just deployed in two boreholes on the Amery ice shelf in East Antarctica and after successful 2000 2001 deployments in 4 boreholes at Ice Stream C, West Antarctica, and in 2002 at Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska. The probe is designed to operate at temperatures from 40 to +40 C and to withstand the cold, wet, high-pressure [130-atm (13.20-MPa)] environment at the bottom of a water-filled borehole in ice as deep as 1.6 km. A current version is being outfitted to service 2.4-km-deep boreholes at the Rutford Ice Stream in West Antarctica. The probe (see figure) contains a sidelooking charge-coupled-device (CCD) camera that generates both a real-time analog video signal and a sequence of still-image data, and contains a digital videotape recorder. The probe also contains a downward-looking CCD analog video camera, plus halogen lamps to illuminate the fields of view of both cameras. The analog video outputs of the cameras are converted to optical signals that are transmitted to a surface station via optical fibers in a cable. Electric power is supplied to the probe through wires in the cable at a

  15. Ice-free summers predominant in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean - New insights from a proxy-modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Schreck, Michael; Knorr, Gregor; Forwick, Matthias; Lohmann, Gerrit; Niessen, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Lohmann, G., 2011. Towards quantitative sea ice reconstructions in the northern North Atlantic: A combined biomarker and numerical modelling approach. Earth Planetary Science Letters 306, 137-148. Stein, R. (Ed.), 2015. The Expedition PS87 of the Research Vessel Polarstern to the Arctic Ocean in 2014, Reports on Polar and Marine Research 688, Bremerhaven, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 273 pp (http://epic.awi.de/37728/1/BzPM_0688_2015.pdf). Stein, R., K. Fahl, Schreck, M., Knorr, G., Niessen, F., Forwick, M., Gebhardt, C., Jensen, L., Kaminski, M., Kopf, A., Matthiessen, J., Jokat, W., Lohmann, G. and the PS87 Geoscience Party, 2016. Ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean - New insights from proxy/model reconstruction. Nature Communications, revised version under review.

  16. Astronomical Ice: The Effects of Treating Ice as a Porous Media on the Dynamics and Evolution of Extraterrestrial Ice-Ocean Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buffo, J.; Schmidt, B. E.

    2015-12-01

    With the prevalence of water and ice rich environments in the solar system, and likely the universe, becoming more apparent, understanding the evolutionary dynamics and physical processes of such locales is of great importance. Piqued interest arises from the understanding that the persistence of all known life depends on the presence of liquid water. As in situ investigation is currently infeasible, accurate numerical modeling is the best technique to demystify these environments. We will discuss an evolving model of ice-ocean interaction aimed at realistically describing the behavior of the ice-ocean interface by treating basal ice as a porous media, and its possible implications on the formation of astrobiological niches. Treating ice as a porous media drastically affects the thermodynamic properties it exhibits. Thus inclusion of this phenomenon is critical in accurately representing the dynamics and evolution of all ice-ocean environments. This model utilizes equations that describe the dynamics of sea ice when it is treated as a porous media (Hunke et. al. 2011), coupled with a basal melt and accretion model (Holland and Jenkins 1999). Combined, these two models produce the most accurate description of the processes occurring at the base of terrestrial sea ice and ice shelves, capable of resolving variations within the ice due to environmental pressures. While these models were designed for application to terrestrial environments, the physics occurring at any ice-water interface is identical, and these models can be used to represent the evolution of a variety of icy astronomical bodies. As terrestrial ice shelves provide a close analog to planetary ice-ocean environments, we truth test the models validity against observations of ice shelves. We apply this model to the ice-ocean interface of the icy Galilean moon Europa. We include profiles of temperature, salinity, solid fraction, and Darcy velocity, as well as temporally and spatially varying melt and

  17. The role of sea ice in 2 x CO2 climate model sensitivity. Part 1: The total influence of sea ice thickness and extent

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.; Healy, R.; Parkinson, C.; Martinson, D.

    1995-01-01

    As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2, the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature senstivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 C), because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus, its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run, which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes, including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations, amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling, accounting for 1.56 C of the 4.17 C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations, necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models.

  18. Smagglce: Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils: Phase 1 Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vickerman, Mary B.; Choo, Yung K.; Braun, Donald C.; Baez, Marivell; Gnepp, Steven

    1999-01-01

    SmaggIce (Surface Modeling and Grid Generation for Iced Airfoils) is a software toolkit used in the process of aerodynamic performance prediction of iced airfoils with grid-based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). It includes tools for data probing, boundary smoothing, domain decomposition, and structured grid generation and refinement. SmaggIce provides the underlying computations to perform these functions, a GUI (Graphical User Interface) to control and interact with those functions, and graphical displays of results, it is being developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. This paper discusses the overall design of SmaggIce as well as what has been implemented in Phase 1. Phase 1 results provide two types of software tools: interactive ice shape probing and interactive ice shape control. The ice shape probing tools will provide aircraft icing engineers and scientists with an interactive means to measure the physical characteristics of ice shapes. On the other hand, the ice shape control features of SmaggIce will allow engineers to examine input geometry data, correct or modify any deficiencies in the geometry, and perform controlled systematic smoothing to a level that will make the CFD process manageable.

  19. Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modeling applied to Petermann Glacier (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nick, F.; Hubbard, A.; Vieli, A.; van der Veen, C. J.; Box, J. E.; Bates, R.; Luckman, A. J.

    2009-12-01

    Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

  20. Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

    2013-12-01

    Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and