Acceptable Tolerances for Matching Icing Similarity Parameters in Scaling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, David N.

2003-01-01

This paper reviews past work and presents new data to evaluate how changes in similarity parameters affect ice shapes and how closely scale values of the parameters should match reference values. Experimental ice shapes presented are from tests by various researchers in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel. The parameters reviewed are the modified inertia parameter (which determines the stagnation collection efficiency), accumulation parameter, freezing fraction, Reynolds number, and Weber number. It was demonstrated that a good match of scale and reference ice shapes could sometimes be achieved even when values of the modified inertia parameter did not match precisely. Consequently, there can be some flexibility in setting scale droplet size, which is the test condition determined from the modified inertia parameter. A recommended guideline is that the modified inertia parameter be chosen so that the scale stagnation collection efficiency is within 10 percent of the reference value. The scale accumulation parameter and freezing fraction should also be within 10 percent of their reference values. The Weber number based on droplet size and water properties appears to be a more important scaling parameter than one based on model size and air properties. Scale values of both the Reynolds and Weber numbers need to be in the range of 60 to 160 percent of the corresponding reference values. The effects of variations in other similarity parameters have yet to be established.

Ungulate Reproductive Parameters Track Satellite Observations of Plant Phenology across Latitude and Climatological Regimes.

PubMed

Stoner, David C; Sexton, Joseph O; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Bernales, Heather H; Edwards, Thomas C

2016-01-01

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004-2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season ("Start" and "Peak", respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production, across

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Ungulate reproductive parameters track satellite observations of plant phenology across latitude and climatological regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoner, David; Sexton, Joseph O.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Bernales, Heather H.; Edwards, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production

Ungulate Reproductive Parameters Track Satellite Observations of Plant Phenology across Latitude and Climatological Regimes

PubMed Central

Stoner, David C.; Sexton, Joseph O.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Bernales, Heather H.; Edwards, Thomas C.

2016-01-01

The effect of climatically-driven plant phenology on mammalian reproduction is one key to predicting species-specific demographic responses to climate change. Large ungulates face their greatest energetic demands from the later stages of pregnancy through weaning, and so in seasonal environments parturition dates should match periods of high primary productivity. Interannual variation in weather influences the quality and timing of forage availability, which can influence neonatal survival. Here, we evaluated macro-scale patterns in reproductive performance of a widely distributed ungulate (mule deer, Odocoileus hemionus) across contrasting climatological regimes using satellite-derived indices of primary productivity and plant phenology over eight degrees of latitude (890 km) in the American Southwest. The dataset comprised > 180,000 animal observations taken from 54 populations over eight years (2004–2011). Regionally, both the start and peak of growing season (“Start” and “Peak”, respectively) are negatively and significantly correlated with latitude, an unusual pattern stemming from a change in the dominance of spring snowmelt in the north to the influence of the North American Monsoon in the south. Corresponding to the timing and variation in both the Start and Peak, mule deer reproduction was latest, lowest, and most variable at lower latitudes where plant phenology is timed to the onset of monsoonal moisture. Parturition dates closely tracked the growing season across space, lagging behind the Start and preceding the Peak by 27 and 23 days, respectively. Mean juvenile production increased, and variation decreased, with increasing latitude. Temporally, juvenile production was best predicted by primary productivity during summer, which encompassed late pregnancy, parturition, and early lactation. Our findings offer a parsimonious explanation of two key reproductive parameters in ungulate demography, timing of parturition and mean annual production

A Parameter Tuning Scheme of Sea-ice Model Based on Automatic Differentiation Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. G.; Hovland, P. D.

2001-05-01

Automatic diferentiation (AD) technique was used to illustrate a new approach for parameter tuning scheme of an uncoupled sea-ice model. Atmospheric forcing field of 1992 obtained from NCEP data was used as enforcing variables in the study. The simulation results were compared with the observed ice movement provided by the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP). All of the numerical experiments were based on a widely used dynamic and thermodynamic model for simulating the seasonal sea-ice chnage of the main Arctic ocean. We selected five dynamic and thermodynamic parameters for the tuning process in which the cost function defined by the norm of the difference between observed and simulated ice drift locations was minimized. The selected parameters are the air and ocean drag coefficients, the ice strength constant, the turning angle at ice-air/ocean interface, and the bulk sensible heat transfer coefficient. The drag coefficients were the major parameters to control sea-ice movement and extent. The result of the study shows that more realistic simulations of ice thickness distribution was produced by tuning the simulated ice drift trajectories. In the tuning process, the L-BFCGS-B minimization algorithm of a quasi-Newton method was used. The derivative information required in the minimization iterations was provided by the AD processed Fortran code. Compared with a conventional approach, AD generated derivative code provided fast and robust computations of derivative information.

Effects of morphology parameters on anti-icing performance in superhydrophobic surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Thanh-Binh; Park, Seungchul; Lim, Hyuneui

2018-03-01

In this paper, we report the contributions of actual ice-substrate contact area and nanopillar height to passive anti-icing performance in terms of adhesion force and freezing time. Well-textured nanopillars with various parameters were fabricated via colloidal lithography and a dry etching process. The nanostructured quartz surface was coated with low-energy material to confer water-repellent properties. These superhydrophobic surfaces were investigated to determine the parameters essential for reducing adhesion strength and delaying freezing time. A well-textured surface with nanopillars of very small top diameter, regardless of height, could reduce adhesion force and delay freezing time in a subsequent de-icing process. Small top diameters of nanopillars also ensured the metastable Cassie-Baxter state based on energy barrier calculations. The results demonstrated the important role of areal fraction in anti-icing efficiency, and the negligible contribution of texture height. This insight into icing phenomena should lead to design of improved ice-phobic surfaces in the future.

Towards new approaches in phenological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Rawel, Harshard M.; Homann, Thomas

2014-05-01

Modelling of phenological stages is based on temperature sums for many decades, describing both the chilling and the forcing requirement of woody plants until the beginning of leafing or flowering. Parts of this approach go back to Reaumur (1735), who originally proposed the concept of growing degree-days. Now, there is a growing body of opinion that asks for new methods in phenological modelling and more in-depth studies on dormancy release of woody plants. This requirement is easily understandable if we consider the wide application of phenological models, which can even affect the results of climate models. To this day, in phenological models still a number of parameters need to be optimised on observations, although some basic physiological knowledge of the chilling and forcing requirement of plants is already considered in these approaches (semi-mechanistic models). Limiting, for a fundamental improvement of these models, is the lack of knowledge about the course of dormancy in woody plants, which cannot be directly observed and which is also insufficiently described in the literature. Modern metabolomic methods provide a solution for this problem and allow both, the validation of currently used phenological models as well as the development of mechanistic approaches. In order to develop this kind of models, changes of metabolites (concentration, temporal course) must be set in relation to the variability of environmental (steering) parameters (weather, day length, etc.). This necessarily requires multi-year (3-5 yr.) and high-resolution (weekly probes between autumn and spring) data. The feasibility of this approach has already been tested in a 3-year pilot-study on sweet cherries. Our suggested methodology is not only limited to the flowering of fruit trees, it can be also applied to tree species of the natural vegetation, where even greater deficits in phenological modelling exist.

a R-Shiny Based Phenology Analysis System and Case Study Using Digital Camera Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y. K.

2018-05-01

Accurate extracting of the vegetation phenology information play an important role in exploring the effects of climate changes on vegetation. Repeated photos from digital camera is a useful and huge data source in phonological analysis. Data processing and mining on phenological data is still a big challenge. There is no single tool or a universal solution for big data processing and visualization in the field of phenology extraction. In this paper, we proposed a R-shiny based web application for vegetation phenological parameters extraction and analysis. Its main functions include phenological site distribution visualization, ROI (Region of Interest) selection, vegetation index calculation and visualization, data filtering, growth trajectory fitting, phenology parameters extraction, etc. the long-term observation photography data from Freemanwood site in 2013 is processed by this system as an example. The results show that: (1) this system is capable of analyzing large data using a distributed framework; (2) The combination of multiple parameter extraction and growth curve fitting methods could effectively extract the key phenology parameters. Moreover, there are discrepancies between different combination methods in unique study areas. Vegetation with single-growth peak is suitable for using the double logistic module to fit the growth trajectory, while vegetation with multi-growth peaks should better use spline method.

Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Ainley, David G.; Ballard, Grant; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Dugger, Catherine; Emmerson, Loiuse M.; Fraser, William R.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Lyver, Phil O'B.; Olmastroni, Silvia; Southwell, Colin J.; Trivelpiece, Susan G.; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z.; Lynch, Heather J.

2017-01-01

Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.

Incorporating Animals in Phenological Assessments: USA National Phenology Network Methods to Observe Animal Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller-Rushing, A. J.; Weltzin, J. F.

2009-12-01

Many assessments of phenology, particularly those operating at large scales, focus on the phenology of plants, in part because of the relevance of plants in cycles of leaf greening and browning that are visible from satellite-based remote sensing, and because plants contribute significantly to global and regional biogeochemical cycles. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), a consortium of individuals, agencies, and organizations, promotes integrated assessments of both plant and animal phenology. The network is currently developing standard methods to add animal phenology to existing assessments of plant phenology. The first phase will of the standard methods will be implemented online in spring 2010. The methods for observing animals will be similar to the standard methods for making on-the-ground observations of plants—observers will be asked to monitor a fixed location regularly throughout the year. During each visit, observers will answer a series of “yes-no” questions that address the phenological state of the species of interest: Is the species present? Is it mating? Is it feeding? And so on. We are currently testing this method in several national parks in the northeastern United States, including Acadia National Park and the Appalachian Trail. By collecting new observations of this sort for a range of animals—amphibians, birds, fish, insects, mammals, and reptiles—we will greatly increase the ability of scientists and natural resource managers to understand how temporal relationships among these species and the plants on which they depend may be changing. To bolster the data available, we are collaborating with existing monitoring programs to develop common monitoring techniques, data sharing technologies, and visualizations. We are also beginning to collect legacy datasets, such as one from North American Bird Phenology Program that includes 90 years of observations of bird migration times from across the continent. We believe that

Hydrology, phenology and the USA National Phenology Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kish, George R.

2010-01-01

Phenology is the study of seasonally-recurring biological events (such as leaf-out, fruit production, and animal reproduction and migration) and how these events are influenced by environmental change. Phenological changes are some of the most sensitive biological indicators of climate change, and also affect nearly all aspects of ecosystem function. Spatially extensive patterns of phenological observations have been closely linked with climate variability. Phenology and hydrology are closely linked and affect one another across a variety of scales, from leaf intercellular spaces to the troposphere, and over periods of seconds to centuries. Ecosystem life cycles and diversity are also influenced by hydrologic processes such as floods and droughts. Therefore, understanding the relationships between hydrology and phenology is increasingly important in understanding how climate change affects biological and physical systems.

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds.

PubMed

Chambers, Lynda E; Dann, Peter; Cannell, Belinda; Woehler, Eric J

2014-05-01

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.

The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming.

PubMed

Steele, Michael; Dickinson, Suzanne

2016-09-01

In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs. However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition (LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where ice retreat still occurs late in the season.

Use of timesat to estimate phenological parameters in Northwestern Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oddi, Facundo; Minotti, Priscilla; Ghermandi, Luciana; Lasaponara, Rosa

2015-04-01

Under a global change context, ecosystems are receiving high pressure and the ecology science play a key role for monitoring and assessment of natural resources. To achieve an effective resources management to develop an ecosystem functioning knowledge based on spatio-temporal perspective is useful. Satellite imagery periodically capture the spectral response of the earth and remote sensing have been widely utilized as classification and change detection tool making possible evaluate the intra and inter-annual plant dynamics. Vegetation spectral indices (e.g., NDVI) are particularly suitable to study spatio-temporal processes related to plant phenology and remote sensing specific software, such as TIMESAT, has been developed to carry out time series analysis of spectral indexes. We used TIMESAT software applied to series of 25 years of NDVI bi-monthly composites (240 images covering the period 1982-2006) from the NOAA-AVHRR sensor (8 x 8 km) to assessment plant pheonology over 900000 ha of shrubby-grasslands in the Northwestern of Patagonia, Argentina. The study area corresponds to a Mediterranean environment and is part of a gradient defined by a sharp drop west-east in the precipitation regime (600 mm to 280 mm). We fitted the temporal series of NDVI data to double logistic functions by least-squares methods evaluating three seasonality parameters: a) start of growing season, b) growing season length, c) NDVI seasonal integral. According to fitted models by TIMESAT, start average of growing season was the second half of September (± 10 days) with beginnings latest in the east (dryer areas). The average growing season length was 180 days (± 15 days) without a clear spatial trend. The NDVI seasonal integral showed a clear trend of decrease in west-east direction following the precipitation gradient. The temporal and spatial information allows revealing important patterns of ecological interest, which can be of great importance to environmental monitoring. In this

Detrending phenological time series improves climate-phenology analyses and reveals evidence of plasticity.

PubMed

Iler, Amy M; Inouye, David W; Schmidt, Niels M; Høye, Toke T

2017-03-01

Time series have played a critical role in documenting how phenology responds to climate change. However, regressing phenological responses against climatic predictors involves the risk of finding potentially spurious climate-phenology relationships simply because both variables also change across years. Detrending by year is a way to address this issue. Additionally, detrending isolates interannual variation in phenology and climate, so that detrended climate-phenology relationships can represent statistical evidence of phenotypic plasticity. Using two flowering phenology time series from Colorado, USA and Greenland, we detrend flowering date and two climate predictors known to be important in these ecosystems: temperature and snowmelt date. In Colorado, all climate-phenology relationships persist after detrending. In Greenland, 75% of the temperature-phenology relationships disappear after detrending (three of four species). At both sites, the relationships that persist after detrending suggest that plasticity is a major component of sensitivity of flowering phenology to climate. Finally, simulations that created different strengths of correlations among year, climate, and phenology provide broader support for our two empirical case studies. This study highlights the utility of detrending to determine whether phenology is related to a climate variable in observational data sets. Applying this as a best practice will increase our understanding of phenological responses to climatic variation and change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Spatially detailed retrievals of spring phenology from single-season high-resolution image time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrieling, Anton; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Wang, Tiejun; Meroni, Michele; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; O'Connor, Brian; Darvishzadeh, Roshanak; Heurich, Marco; Shepherd, Anita; Paganini, Marc

2017-07-01

Vegetation indices derived from satellite image time series have been extensively used to estimate the timing of phenological events like season onset. Medium spatial resolution (≥250 m) satellite sensors with daily revisit capability are typically employed for this purpose. In recent years, phenology is being retrieved at higher resolution (≤30 m) in response to increasing availability of high-resolution satellite data. To overcome the reduced acquisition frequency of such data, previous attempts involved fusion between high- and medium-resolution data, or combinations of multi-year acquisitions in a single phenological reconstruction. The objectives of this study are to demonstrate that phenological parameters can now be retrieved from single-season high-resolution time series, and to compare these retrievals against those derived from multi-year high-resolution and single-season medium-resolution satellite data. The study focuses on the island of Schiermonnikoog, the Netherlands, which comprises a highly-dynamic saltmarsh, dune vegetation, and agricultural land. Combining NDVI series derived from atmospherically-corrected images from RapidEye (5 m-resolution) and the SPOT5 Take5 experiment (10m-resolution) acquired between March and August 2015, phenological parameters were estimated using a function fitting approach. We then compared results with phenology retrieved from four years of 30 m Landsat 8 OLI data, and single-year 100 m Proba-V and 250 m MODIS temporal composites of the same period. Retrieved phenological parameters from combined RapidEye/SPOT5 displayed spatially consistent results and a large spatial variability, providing complementary information to existing vegetation community maps. Retrievals that combined four years of Landsat observations into a single synthetic year were affected by the inclusion of years with warmer spring temperatures, whereas adjustment of the average phenology to 2015 observations was only feasible for a few pixels

Unified phenology model with Bayesian calibration for several European species in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Y. S. H.; Demarée, G.; Hamdi, R.; Deckmyn, A.; Deckmyn, G.; Janssens, I. A.

2009-04-01

Plant phenology is a good bio-indicator for climate change, and this has brought a significant increase of interest. Many kinds of phenology models have been developed to analyze and predict the phenological response to climate change, and those models have been summarized into one kind of unified model, which could be applied to different species and environments. In our study, we selected seven European woody plant species (Betula verrucosa, Quercus robur pedunculata, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Symphoricarpus racemosus, Aesculus hippocastanum, Robinia pseudoacacia) occurring in five sites distributed across Belgium. For those sites and tree species, phenological observations such as bud burst were available for the period 1956 - 2002. We also obtained regional downscaled climatic data for each of these sites, and combined both data sets to test the unified model. We used a Bayesian approach to generate distributions of model parameters from the observation data. In this poster presentation, we compare parameter distributions between different species and between different sites for individual species. The results of the unified model show a good agreement with the observations, except for Fagus sylvatica. The failure to reproduce the bud burst data for Fagus sylvatica suggest that the other factors not included in the unified model affect the phenology of this species. The parameter series show differences among species as we expected. However, they also differed strongly for the same species among sites.Further work should elucidate the mechanism that explains why model parameters differ among species and sites.

e-phenology: monitoring leaf phenology and tracking climate changes in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellato, Patrícia; Alberton, Bruna; Almeida, Jurandy; Alex, Jefersson; Mariano, Greice; Torres, Ricardo

2014-05-01

The e-phenology is a multidisciplinary project combining research in Computer Science and Phenology. Its goal is to attack theoretical and practical problems involving the use of new technologies for remote phenological observation aiming to detect local environmental changes. It is geared towards three objectives: (a) the use of new technologies of environmental monitoring based on remote phenology monitoring systems; (b) creation of a protocol for a Brazilian long term phenology monitoring program and for the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to climate change; and (c) provide models, methods and algorithms to support management, integration and analysis of data of remote phenology systems. The research team is composed by computer scientists and biology researchers in Phenology. Our first results include: Phenology towers - We set up the first phenology tower in our core cerrado-savanna 1 study site at Itirapina, São Paulo, Brazil. The tower received a complete climatic station and a digital camera. The digital camera is set up to take daily sequence of images (five images per hour, from 6:00 to 18:00 h). We set up similar phenology towers with climatic station and cameras in five more sites: cerrado-savanna 2 (Pé de Gigante, SP), cerrado grassland 3 (Itirapina, SP), rupestrian fields 4 ( Serra do Cipo, MG), seasonal forest 5 (Angatuba, SP) and Atlantic raiforest 6 (Santa Virginia, SP). Phenology database - We finished modeling and validation of a phenology database that stores ground phenology and near-remote phenology, and we are carrying out the implementation with data ingestion. Remote phenology and image processing - We performed the first analyses of the cerrado sites 1 to 4 phenology derived from digital images. Analysis were conducted by extracting color information (RGB Red, Green and Blue color channels) from selected parts of the image named regions of interest (ROI). using the green color

Determination of HCME 3-D parameters using a full ice-cream cone model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Yong-Jae; Lee, Harim

2016-05-01

It is very essential to determine three dimensional parameters (e.g., radial speed, angular width, source location) of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) for space weather forecast. Several cone models (e.g., an elliptical cone model, an ice-cream cone model, an asymmetric cone model) have been examined to estimate these parameters. In this study, we investigate which cone type is close to a halo CME morphology using 26 CMEs: halo CMEs by one spacecraft (SOHO or STEREO-A or B) and as limb CMEs by the other ones. From cone shape parameters of these CMEs such as their front curvature, we find that near full ice-cream cone type CMEs are much closer to observations than shallow ice-cream cone type CMEs. Thus we develop a new cone model in which a full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. This model is carried out by the following steps: (1) construct a cone for given height and angular width, (2) project the cone onto the sky plane, (3) select points comprising the outer boundary, and (4) minimize the difference between the estimated projection speeds with the observed ones. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that 3-D parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods (a geometrical triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model) based on multi-spacecraft data. We are developing a general ice-cream cone model whose front shape is a free parameter determined by observations.

Phenology of the McMurdo Sound Spring Bloom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, K. L.; Kim, S.; Broadbent, H.; Saenz, B.; Ainley, D. G.; Ballard, G.; Pitman, R.; DiTullio, G. R.

2016-02-01

The phenology of spring blooms in most cases has important consequences for the food web that supports upper trophic level predators. An investigation during spring/summer of 2012/13 and 2014/15 of the McMurdo Sound ecosystem, at the southern end of the Ross Sea, revealed that maximum concentrations of fast ice algae occurred during November, with higher concentrations on the eastern side of the Sound near Ross Island and lower concentrations on the western side in the cold water outflow from under the Ross Ice Shelf. In early to mid-December, warming surface water ablated the undersurface of the fast ice and ice algae likely sank rapidly out of the water column to provide food for the benthos. Also in early to mid-December, the McMurdo system transitioned to a phytoplankton bloom at the fast ice edge and under the ice, which co-occurred with the timing of Adelie penguin reproduction (chick hatching) at Cape Royds and the arrival of minke whales and fish-eating killer whales at the fast ice edge. The phytoplankton bloom was initially advected from the Ross Sea into the eastern side of McMurdo Sound and then spread across the Sound to the western side. The phytoplankton community, which was dominated by diatoms and Phaeocystis, was not grazed down by zooplankton and appeared to sink out of the water column. Results support recent findings that a wasp-waist food web structure exists in the Ross Sea, whereby upper trophic levels are not closely coupled to phytoplankton dynamics.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Impact of early and late winter icing events on sub-arctic dwarf shrubs.

PubMed

Preece, C; Phoenix, G K

2014-01-01

Polar regions are predicted to undergo large increases in winter temperature and an increased frequency of freeze-thaw cycles, which can cause ice layers in the snow pack and ice encasement of vegetation. Early or late winter timing of ice encasement could, however, modify the extent of damage caused to plants. To determine impacts of the date of ice encasement, a novel field experiment was established in sub-arctic Sweden, with icing events simulated in January and March 2008 and 2009. In the subsequent summers, reproduction, phenology, growth and mortality, as well as physiological indicators of leaf damage were measured in the three dominant dwarf shrubs: Vaccinium uliginosum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Empetrum nigrum. It was hypothesised that January icing would be more damaging compared to March icing due to the longer duration of ice encasement. Following 2 years of icing, E. nigrum berry production was 83% lower in January-iced plots compared to controls, and V. vitis-idaea electrolyte leakage was increased by 69%. Conversely, electrolyte leakage of E. nigrum was 25% lower and leaf emergence of V. vitis-idaea commenced 11 days earlier in March-iced plots compared to control plots in 2009. There was no effect of icing on any of the other parameters measured, indicating that overall these study species have moderate to high tolerance to ice encasement. Even much longer exposure under the January icing treatment does not clearly increase damage. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Improved Satellite-based Crop Yield Mapping by Spatially Explicit Parameterization of Crop Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Z.; Azzari, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2016-12-01

Field-scale mapping of crop yields with satellite data often relies on the use of crop simulation models. However, these approaches can be hampered by inaccuracies in the simulation of crop phenology. Here we present and test an approach to use dense time series of Landsat 7 and 8 acquisitions data to calibrate various parameters related to crop phenology simulation, such as leaf number and leaf appearance rates. These parameters are then mapped across the Midwestern United States for maize and soybean, and for two different simulation models. We then implement our recently developed Scalable satellite-based Crop Yield Mapper (SCYM) with simulations reflecting the improved phenology parameterizations, and compare to prior estimates based on default phenology routines. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can effectively alleviate the underestimation of early-season LAI by the default Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), and that spatially explicit parameterization for the phenology model substantially improves the SCYM performance in capturing the spatiotemporal variation in maize and soybean yield. The scheme presented in our study thus preserves the scalability of SCYM, while significantly reducing its uncertainty.

Evaluating Heavy Metal Stress Levels in Rice Based on Remote Sensing Phenology.

PubMed

Liu, Tianjiao; Liu, Xiangnan; Liu, Meiling; Wu, Ling

2018-03-14

Heavy metal pollution of croplands is a major environmental problem worldwide. Methods for accurately and quickly monitoring heavy metal stress have important practical significance. Many studies have explored heavy metal stress in rice in relation to physiological function or physiological factors, but few studies have considered phenology, which can be sensitive to heavy metal stress. In this study, we used an integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series image set to extract remote sensing phenology. A phenological indicator relatively sensitive to heavy metal stress was chosen from the obtained phenological periods and phenological parameters. The Dry Weight of Roots (WRT), which directly affected by heavy metal stress, was simulated by the World Food Study (WOFOST) model; then, a feature space based on the phenological indicator and WRT was established for monitoring heavy metal stress. The results indicated that the feature space can distinguish the heavy metal stress levels in rice, with accuracy greater than 95% for distinguishing the severe stress level. This finding provides scientific evidence for combining rice phenology and physiological characteristics in time and space, and the method is useful to monitor heavy metal stress in rice.

The Plant Phenology Ontology: A New Informatics Resource for Large-Scale Integration of Plant Phenology Data.

PubMed

Stucky, Brian J; Guralnick, Rob; Deck, John; Denny, Ellen G; Bolmgren, Kjell; Walls, Ramona

2018-01-01

Plant phenology - the timing of plant life-cycle events, such as flowering or leafing out - plays a fundamental role in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, including human agricultural systems. Because plant phenology is often linked with climatic variables, there is widespread interest in developing a deeper understanding of global plant phenology patterns and trends. Although phenology data from around the world are currently available, truly global analyses of plant phenology have so far been difficult because the organizations producing large-scale phenology data are using non-standardized terminologies and metrics during data collection and data processing. To address this problem, we have developed the Plant Phenology Ontology (PPO). The PPO provides the standardized vocabulary and semantic framework that is needed for large-scale integration of heterogeneous plant phenology data. Here, we describe the PPO, and we also report preliminary results of using the PPO and a new data processing pipeline to build a large dataset of phenology information from North America and Europe.

Why we need better predictive models of vegetation phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Andrew; Migliavacca, Mirco; Keenan, Trevor

2014-05-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly affected by climate change, with warmer temperatures causing earlier spring onset and delayed autumn senescence in most temperate and boreal ecosystems. In arid regions where phenology is driven by the seasonality of soil water availability, shifts in the timing, intensity, and total amount of precipitation are, likewise, affecting the seasonality of vegetation activity. Changes in the duration of the growing season have important implications for ecosystem productivity and uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere, as well as site water balance and runoff, microclimate, ecological interactions within and across trophic levels, and numerous feedbacks to the climate system associated with the surface energy budget. However, an outstanding challenge is that existing phenology sub-models used in ecosystem, land surface, and terrestrial biosphere models fail to adequately represent the seasonality, or sensitivity to environmental drivers, of vegetation phenology. This has two implications. First, these models are therefore likely to perform poorly under future climate scenarios. Second, the seasonality of important ecological processes and interactions, as well as biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks, is likely to be misrepresented as a result. Using data from several recent analyses, and focusing on temperate and boreal ecosystems, we will review current challenges associated with modeling vegetation phenology. We will discuss uncertainties associated with phenology model structure, model parameters, and driver sensitivity (forcing, chilling, and photoperiod). We will show why being able to extrapolate and generalize models (and model parameterization) is essential. We will consider added challenges associated with trying to model autumn phenology. Finally, we will use canopy photosynthesis and uptake of CO2 as an example of why improved understanding of the "rhythm of the seasons" is critically important.

Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Preston, Daniel L.; Caine, Nel; McKnight, Diane M.; Williams, Mark W.; Hell, Katherina; Miller, Matthew P.; Hart, Sarah J.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.

2016-01-01

High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

Remote sensing of land surface phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, G.A.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing of land-surface phenology is an important method for studying the patterns of plant and animal growth cycles. Phenological events are sensitive to climate variation; therefore phenology data provide important baseline information documenting trends in ecology and detecting the impacts of climate change on multiple scales. The USGS Remote sensing of land surface phenology program produces annually, nine phenology indicator variables at 250 m and 1,000 m resolution for the contiguous U.S. The 12 year archive is available at http://phenology.cr.usgs.gov/index.php.

A new approach to generating research-quality phenology data: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denny, E. G.; Miller-Rushing, A. J.; Haggerty, B. P.; Wilson, B. E.

2009-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change. Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific single dates at which individual phenological events are observed, but the scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations can be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. “Do you see open flowers?”), which makes it very appropriate for a broad audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. The system also includes a mechanism for translation of phenophase start and end points into standard traditional phenological events to facilitate comparison of contemporary data collected with this new “phenophase status” monitoring approach to historical datasets collected with the “phenological event” monitoring approach. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for

A new approach to generating research-quality phenology data: The USA National Phenology Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denny, Ellen; Miller-Rushing, Abraham; Haggerty, Brian; Wilson, Bruce; Weltzin, Jake

2010-05-01

The USA National Phenology Network (www.usanpn.org) has recently initiated a national effort to encourage people at different levels of expertise—from backyard naturalists to professional scientists—to observe phenological events and contribute to a national database that will be used to greatly improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in phenology and associated phenological responses to climate change. Traditional phenological observation protocols identify specific single dates at which individual phenological events are observed, but the scientific usefulness of long-term phenological observations can be improved with a more carefully structured protocol. At the USA-NPN we have developed a new approach that directs observers to record each day that they observe an individual plant, and to assess and report the state of specific life stages (or phenophases) as occurring or not occurring on that plant for each observation date. Evaluation is phrased in terms of simple, easy-to-understand, questions (e.g. "Do you see open flowers?"), which makes it very appropriate for a broad audience. From this method, a rich dataset of phenological metrics can be extracted, including the duration of a phenophase (e.g. open flowers), the beginning and end points of a phenophase (e.g. traditional phenological events such as first flower and last flower), multiple distinct occurrences of phenophases within a single growing season (e.g multiple flowering events, common in drought-prone regions), as well as quantification of sampling frequency and observational uncertainties. The system also includes a mechanism for translation of phenophase start and end points into standard traditional phenological events to facilitate comparison of contemporary data collected with this new "phenophase status" monitoring approach to historical datasets collected with the "phenological event" monitoring approach. These features greatly enhance the utility of the resulting data for

Ice-Accretion Scaling Using Water-Film Thickness Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, David N.; Feo, Alejandro

2003-01-01

Studies were performed at INTA in Spain to determine water-film thickness on a stagnation-point probe inserted in a simulated cloud. The measurements were correlated with non-dimensional parameters describing the flow and the cloud conditions. Icing scaling tests in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel were then conducted using the Ruff scaling method with the scale velocity found by matching scale and reference values of either the INTA non-dimensional water-film thickness or a Weber number based on that film thickness. For comparison, tests were also performed using the constant drop-size Weber number and the average-velocity methods. The reference and scale models were both aluminum, 61-cm-span, NACA 0012 airfoil sections at 0 deg. AOA. The reference had a 53-cm-chord and the scale, 27 cm (1/2 size). Both models were mounted vertically in the center of the IRT test section. Tests covered a freezing fraction range of 0.28 to 1.0. Rime ice (n = 1.0) tests showed the consistency of the IRT calibration over a range of velocities. At a freezing fraction of 0.76, there was no significant difference in the scale ice shapes produced by the different methods. For freezing fractions of 0.40, 0.52 and 0.61, somewhat better agreement with the reference horn angles was typically achieved with the average-velocity and constant-film thickness methods than when either of the two Weber numbers was matched to the reference value. At a freezing fraction of 0.28, the four methods were judged equal in providing simulations of the reference shape.

Nature's Notebook Provides Phenology Observations for NASA Juniper Phenology and Pollen Transport Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luval, J. C.; Crimmins, T. M.; Sprigg, W. A.; Levetin, E.; Huete, A.; Nickovic, S.; Prasad, A.; Vukovic, A.; VandeWater, P. K.; Budge, A. M.;

Measuring Geophysical Parameters of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Airborne Radar Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferraro, Ellen J.; Swift. Calvin T.

1995-01-01

This paper presents radar-altimeter scattering models for each of the diagenetic zones of the Greenland ice sheet. AAFE radar- altimeter waveforms obtained during the 1991 and 1993 NASA multi-sensor airborne altimetry experiments over Greenland reveal that the Ku-band return pulse changes significantly with the different diagenetic zones. These changes are due to varying amounts of surface and volume scattering in the return waveform. In the ablation and soaked zones, where surface scattering dominates the AAFE return, geophysical parameters such as rms surface height and rms surface slope are obtained by fitting the waveforms to a surface-scattering model. Waveforms from the percolation zone show that the sub-surface ice features have a much more significant effect on the return pulse than the surrounding snowpack. Model percolation waveforms, created using a combined surface- and volume-scattering model and an ice-feature distribution obtained during the 1993 field season, agree well with actual AAFE waveforms taken in the same time period. Using a combined surface- and volume-scattering model for the dry-snow-zone return waveforms, the rms surface height and slope and the attenuation coefficient of the snowpack are obtained. These scattering models not only allow geophysical parameters of the ice sheet to be measured but also help in the understanding of satellite radar-altimeter data.

Parameters Comparsion of Leads Detection in Arctic Sea Ice Using CRYOSAT-2 Waveform Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhang, S.; Xiao, F.; Zhu, C.; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, T.; Yuan, L.

2018-04-01

Leads are only a small part of the polar sea ice structure, but they play a dominant role on the turbulence exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, they are also important factors about sea ice thickness inversion. Since the early 2000s, Satellite altimetry has been applied to monitor the Arctic sea ice thickness, Satellite altimetry data can be used to distinguish leads and sea ice. In this paper, four parameters including Pulse peakiness (PP), stack standard deviation (SSD), stack kurtosis (SKU) and stack skewness (SSK) are extracted from CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry waveform data. The four parameters are combined into five combinations (PP, PP&SSD, PP&SSD&SKU, PP&SSD&SSK, PP&SSD&SSK&SKU) with constrain conditions to detect the leads. The results of the five methods are compared with MODIS (moderate-resolution imagining spectroradiometer) images and show that, the combination of PP&SSD is better than the single PP, the rest of combinations are the same as the combination of PP&SSD. It turns out, there is no promotion when we add SSK and SKU, successively or simultaneously.

Local order parameters for use in driving homogeneous ice nucleation with all-atom models of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhardt, Aleks; Doye, Jonathan P. K.; Noya, Eva G.; Vega, Carlos

2012-11-01

We present a local order parameter based on the standard Steinhardt-Ten Wolde approach that is capable both of tracking and of driving homogeneous ice nucleation in simulations of all-atom models of water. We demonstrate that it is capable of forcing the growth of ice nuclei in supercooled liquid water simulated using the TIP4P/2005 model using over-biassed umbrella sampling Monte Carlo simulations. However, even with such an order parameter, the dynamics of ice growth in deeply supercooled liquid water in all-atom models of water are shown to be very slow, and so the computation of free energy landscapes and nucleation rates remains extremely challenging.

Constraining the parameters of the EAP sea ice rheology from satellite observations and discrete element model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsamados, Michel; Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Muir, Alan; Baker, Steven

2016-04-01

The new elastic-plastic anisotropic (EAP) rheology that explicitly accounts for the sub-continuum anisotropy of the sea ice cover has been implemented into the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The EAP rheology is widely used in the climate modeling scientific community (i.e. CPOM stand alone, RASM high resolution regional ice-ocean model, MetOffice fully coupled model). Early results from sensitivity studies (Tsamados et al, 2013) have shown the potential for an improved representation of the observed main sea ice characteristics with a substantial change of the spatial distribution of ice thickness and ice drift relative to model runs with the reference visco-plastic (VP) rheology. The model contains one new prognostic variable, the local structure tensor, which quantifies the degree of anisotropy of the sea ice, and two parameters that set the time scale of the evolution of this tensor. Observations from high resolution satellite SAR imagery as well as numerical simulation results from a discrete element model (DEM, see Wilchinsky, 2010) have shown that these individual floes can organize under external wind and thermal forcing to form an emergent isotropic sea ice state (via thermodynamic healing, thermal cracking) or an anisotropic sea ice state (via Coulombic failure lines due to shear rupture). In this work we use for the first time in the context of sea ice research a mathematical metric, the Tensorial Minkowski functionals (Schroeder-Turk, 2010), to measure quantitatively the degree of anisotropy and alignment of the sea ice at different scales. We apply the methodology on the GlobICE Envisat satellite deformation product (www.globice.info), on a prototype modified version of GlobICE applied on Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery and on the DEM ice floe aggregates. By comparing these independent measurements of the sea ice anisotropy as well as its temporal evolution against the EAP model we are able to constrain the

Phylogenetic Conservatism in Plant Phenology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, T. Jonathan; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Allen, Jenica M.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Cook, Benjamin I.;

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

PubMed

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

Analytical Incorporation of Velocity Parameters into Ice Sheet Elevation Change Rate Computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagarajan, S.; Ahn, Y.; Teegavarapu, R. S. V.

2014-12-01

NASA, ESA and various other agencies have been collecting laser, optical and RADAR altimetry data through various missions to study the elevation changes of the Cryosphere. The laser altimetry collected by various airborne and spaceborne missions provides multi-temporal coverage of Greenland and Antarctica since 1993 to now. Though these missions have increased the data coverage, considering the dynamic nature of the ice surface, it is still sparse both spatially and temporally for accurate elevation change detection studies. The temporal and spatial gaps are usually filled by interpolation techniques. This presentation will demonstrate a method to improve the temporal interpolation. Considering the accuracy, repeat coverage and spatial distribution, the laser scanning data has been widely used to compute elevation change rate of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. A major problem with these approaches is non-consideration of ice sheet velocity dynamics into change rate computations. Though the correlation between velocity and elevation change rate have been noticed by Hurkmans et al., 2012, the corrections for velocity changes were applied after computing elevation change rates by assuming linear or higher polynomial relationship. This research will discuss the possibilities of parameterizing ice sheet dynamics as unknowns (dX and dY) in the adjustment mathematical model that computes elevation change (dZ) rates. It is a simultaneous computation of changes in all three directions of the ice surface. Also, the laser points between two time epochs in a crossover area have different distribution and count. Therefore, a registration method that does not require point-to-point correspondence is required to recover the unknown elevation and velocity parameters. This research will experiment the possibilities of registering multi-temporal datasets using volume minimization algorithm, which determines the unknown dX, dY and dZ that minimizes the volume between two or

Phenology on Drupal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosemartin, A.; Marsh, L.; Lincicome, A.; Denny, E. G.; Wilson, B. E.

2011-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. The Network was founded as an NSF-funded Research Coordination Network, for the purpose of fostering collaboration among scientists, policy-makers and the general public to address the challenges posed by global change and its impact on ecosystems and human health. Drupal is a powerful tool for emerging collaborative efforts in the sciences. The USA-NPN has leveraged Drupal through the course the organization's development. Early on, when the organization had few programing resources, Drupal provided a basic, customizable web presence. Today, the USA-NPN's Drupal website is content and feature-rich. The USA-NPN website features Drupal content types for community contributions of publications, affiliates, legacy data sets and phenology festivals. The legacy data set content type creates a reduced Darwin Core metadata record, and will be made available via an EML compliant feed. Map and grid views allow contributors to explore submitted records visually and through filters. Further extensions through the Services/OAuth modules have allowed the website to share logins (for instance, connecting a prototype Facebook app for data entry with the Drupal authentication mechanism). The USA-NPN has leveraged Drupal in a collaborative effort to collect, store, synthesize and output phenological data and information for plants, animals and the environment.

How Can the USA National Phenology Network's Data Resource Benefit You? Recent Applications of the Phenology Data and Information Housed in the National Phenology Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, T. M.

2015-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. The National Phenology Database, maintained by the USA-NPN, is experiencing steady growth in the number of data records it houses. Since 2009, over 5,500 participants in Nature's Notebook, the national-scale, multi-taxa phenology observation program coordinated by the USA-NPN, have contributed nearly 6 million observation records of plants and animals. The phenology data curated by the USA-NPN are being used in a rapidly growing number of applications for science, conservation and resource management. Data and data products generated by the USA-NPN have been used in 17 peer-reviewed publications to date. Additionally, phenology data collected via Nature's Notebook is actively informing decisions ranging from efficiently scheduling street-sweeping activities to keep dropped leaves from entering inland lakes, to timing the spread of herbicide or other restoration activities to maximize their efficacy. We demonstrate several types of questions that can be addressed with this observing system and the resultant data, and highlight several ongoing local- to national-scale projects as well as some recently published studies. Additional data-mining and exploration by interested researchers and resource managers will undoubtedly continue to demonstrate the value of these data.

Analysis of Differences in Phenology Extracted from the Enhanced Vegetation Index and the Leaf Area Index

PubMed Central

Wang, Cong; Li, Jing; Wu, Shanlong; Xia, Chuanfu

2017-01-01

Remote-sensing phenology detection can compensate for deficiencies in field observations and has the advantage of capturing the continuous expression of phenology on a large scale. However, there is some variability in the results of remote-sensing phenology detection derived from different vegetation parameters in satellite time-series data. Since the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and the leaf area index (LAI) are the most widely used vegetation parameters for remote-sensing phenology extraction, this paper aims to assess the differences in phenological information extracted from EVI and LAI time series and to explore whether either index performs well for all vegetation types on a large scale. To this end, a GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite Product)-LAI-based phenology product (GLP) was generated using the same algorithm as the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)-EVI phenology product (MLCD) over China from 2001 to 2012. The two phenology products were compared in China for different vegetation types and evaluated using ground observations. The results show that the ratio of missing data is 8.3% for the GLP, which is less than the 22.8% for the MLCD. The differences between the GLP and the MLCD become stronger as the latitude decreases, which also vary among different vegetation types. The start of the growing season (SOS) of the GLP is earlier than that of the MLCD in most vegetation types, and the end of the growing season (EOS) of the GLP is generally later than that of the MLCD. Based on ground observations, it can be suggested that the GLP performs better than the MLCD in evergreen needleleaved forests and croplands, while the MLCD performs better than the GLP in shrublands and grasslands. PMID:28867773

Comparison of phenology models for predicting the onset of growing season over the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

2014-01-01

Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models.

Comparison of Phenology Models for Predicting the Onset of Growing Season over the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Fu, Yang; Zhang, Haicheng; Dong, Wenjie; Yuan, Wenping

2014-01-01

Vegetation phenology models are important for examining the impact of climate change on the length of the growing season and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, large uncertainties in present phenology models make accurate assessment of the beginning of the growing season (BGS) a challenge. In this study, based on the satellite-based phenology product (i.e. the V005 MODIS Land Cover Dynamics (MCD12Q2) product), we calibrated four phenology models, compared their relative strength to predict vegetation phenology; and assessed the spatial pattern and interannual variability of BGS in the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that parameter calibration significantly influences the models' accuracy. All models showed good performance in cool regions but poor performance in warm regions. On average, they explained about 67% (the Growing Degree Day model), 79% (the Biome-BGC phenology model), 73% (the Number of Growing Days model) and 68% (the Number of Chilling Days-Growing Degree Day model) of the BGS variations over the Northern Hemisphere. There were substantial differences in BGS simulations among the four phenology models. Overall, the Biome-BGC phenology model performed best in predicting the BGS, and showed low biases in most boreal and cool regions. Compared with the other three models, the two-phase phenology model (NCD-GDD) showed the lowest correlation and largest biases with the MODIS phenology product, although it could catch the interannual variations well for some vegetation types. Our study highlights the need for further improvements by integrating the effects of water availability, especially for plants growing in low latitudes, and the physiological adaptation of plants into phenology models. PMID:25279567

USA National Phenology Network gridded products documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Theresa M.; Marsh, R. Lee; Switzer, Jeff R.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2017-02-23

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to facilitate informed ecosystem stewardship and management by providing phenological information freely and openly. One way the USA-NPN is endeavoring to accomplish these goals is by providing data and data products in a wide range of formats, including gridded real-time, short-term forecasted, and historical maps of phenological events, patterns and trends. This document describes the suite of gridded phenologically relevant data products produced and provided by the USA National Phenology Network, which can be accessed at www.usanpn.org/data/phenology_maps and also through web services at geoserver.usanpn.org/geoserver/wms?request=GetCapabilities.

Phase I of a National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Henebry, G. M.

2009-12-01

Phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal timescales. We propose a scoping study to identify, formulate, and refine approaches to the first National Phenological Assessment (NPA) for the U.S. The NPA should be viewed as a data product of the USA-National Phenology Network that will help guide future phenological monitoring and research at the national level. We envision three main objectives for the first NPA: 1) Establish a suite of indicators of phenological change (IPCs) at regional to continental scales, following the Heinz Center model for such national assessments; 2) Using sufficiently long and broad-scale time series of IPCs and legacy phenological data, assess phenological responses to what many scientists are calling the early stages of anthropogenic climate change, specifically the abrupt advance in spring onset in the late 1970’s/early 1980’s 3) Project large-scale phenological changes into 21st Century using GCM and RCM model realizations. Toward this end we see the following tasks as critical preliminary work to plan the first NPA: a) Identify, evaluate, and refine IPCs based on indices developed from standard weather observations, streamflow and other hydrological observations (e.g., center of mass, lake freeze/thaw, etc.), plant and animal phenology observations from legacy datasets, remote sensing datastreams, flux tower observations, and GCM and RCM model realizations; b) Evaluate covariability between IPCs, legacy phenological data, and large-scale modes of climate variability to help detection and attribution of supposed secular trends and development of short and long-lead forecasts for phenological variations; c) identify, evaluate, and refine optimal methods for quantifying what constitutes significant statistical and ecological change in

Phenology prediction component of GypsES

Treesearch

Jesse A. Logan; Lukas P. Schaub; F. William Ravlin

1991-01-01

Prediction of phenology is an important component of most pest management programs, and considerable research effort has been expended toward development of predictive tools for gypsy moth phenology. Although phenological prediction is potentially valuable for timing of spray applications (e.g. Bt, or Gypcheck) and other management activities (e.g. placement and...

Phenology at the crossroads?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Annette

2014-05-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events such as plant growth or animal migration. Currently nearly 500 papers are published annually that include 'phenolog*' in their title; many are related to anthropogenic change. Since seasonal events are triggered predominantly by climate, phenology has emerged as a key asset in identifying fingerprints of climate change in natural systems, especially since recent warming has been mirrored by significantly advancing spring events. Phenological changes have been reported across continents, habitats and taxa, predominantly as mean temporal changes ('trends') or as relationships to temperature and other drivers ('responses'), and have been summarised in various meta-analyses. However, a considerable variability in observed trends and responses is reported along with mixed messages of the footprint of climate change in nature. Phenology has made considerable advances but is a crossroads of understanding this variability. At the same time a change of emphasis in explanation, prediction and adaptation is emerging, which needs a full acknowledgement of this variability; likely yielding to more plasticity and resilience. In this review, I summarize current knowledge and recent insights into the role of • different observation methods, their accuracy and their target phenophases • observed events, species, traits, ontogenetic effects • species-specific safeguarding strategies, e.g. chilling, photoperiod • additional drivers other than climate, e.g. nutrients, GHG, biotic effects, anthropogenic / agricultural management • seasonal as well as spatio-temporal variation, effects of regional climate changes and analogous climates. This review clearly demonstrated that, comparable to weather and climate ensembles, only a full consideration of variation in responses allows a complete understanding of ecological, cultural and socioeconomic consequences of these phenological changes.

Phenology Data Products to Support Assessment and Forecasting of Phenology on Multiple Spatiotemporal Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerst, K.; Enquist, C.; Rosemartin, A.; Denny, E. G.; Marsh, L.; Moore, D. J.; Weltzin, J. F.

2014-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and environmental change. The National Phenology Database maintained by USA-NPN now has over 3.7 million records for plants and animals for the period 1954-2014, with the majority of these observations collected since 2008 as part of a broad, national contributory science strategy. These data have been used in a number of science, conservation and resource management applications, including national assessments of historical and potential future trends in phenology, regional assessments of spatio-temporal variation in organismal activity, and local monitoring for invasive species detection. Customizable data downloads are freely available, and data are accompanied by FGDC-compliant metadata, data-use and data-attribution policies, vetted and documented methodologies and protocols, and version control. While users are free to develop custom algorithms for data cleaning, winnowing and summarization prior to analysis, the National Coordinating Office of USA-NPN is developing a suite of standard data products to facilitate use and application by a diverse set of data users. This presentation provides a progress report on data product development, including: (1) Quality controlled raw phenophase status data; (2) Derived phenometrics (e.g. onset, duration) at multiple scales; (3) Data visualization tools; (4) Tools to support assessment of species interactions and overlap; (5) Species responsiveness to environmental drivers; (6) Spatially gridded phenoclimatological products; and (7) Algorithms for modeling and forecasting future phenological responses. The prioritization of these data products is a direct response to stakeholder needs related to informing management and policy decisions. We anticipate that these products will contribute to broad understanding of plant

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, M.A.; de Beurs, K. M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; van, Leeuwen; Brown, Jesslyn F.; de Wit, A.; Schaepman, M.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.S.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.

2009-01-01

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Measuring phenological variability from satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Bradley C.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Vanderzee, D.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Merchant, James W.; Ohlen, Donald O.

1994-01-01

Vegetation phenological phenomena are closely related to seasonal dynamics of the lower atmosphere and are therefore important elements in global models and vegetation monitoring. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor offer a means of efficiently and objectively evaluating phenological characteristics over large areas. Twelve metrics linked to key phenological events were computed based on time-series NDVI data collected from 1989 to 1992 over the conterminous United States. These measures include the onset of greenness, time of peak NDVI, maximum NDVI, rate of greenup, rate of senescence, and integrated NDVI. Measures of central tendency and variability of the measures were computed and analyzed for various land cover types. Results from the analysis showed strong coincidence between the satellite-derived metrics and predicted phenological characteristics. In particular, the metrics identified interannual variability of spring wheat in North Dakota, characterized the phenology of four types of grasslands, and established the phenological consistency of deciduous and coniferous forests. These results have implications for large- area land cover mapping and monitoring. The utility of re- motely sensed data as input to vegetation mapping is demonstrated by showing the distinct phenology of several land cover types. More stable information contained in ancillary data should be incorporated into the mapping process, particularly in areas with high phenological variability. In a regional or global monitoring system, an increase in variability in a region may serve as a signal to perform more detailed land cover analysis with higher resolution imagery.

Satellite derived forest phenology and its relation with nephropathia epidemica in Belgium.

PubMed

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Haredasht, Sara Amirpour; Wambacq, Julie; Lagrou, Katrien; Ducoffre, Geneviève; Van Ranst, Marc; Berckmans, Daniel; Coppin, Pol

2010-06-01

The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission.

Satellite Derived Forest Phenology and Its Relation with Nephropathia Epidemica in Belgium

PubMed Central

Barrios, José Miguel; Verstraeten, Willem W.; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Aerts, Jean-Marie; Haredasht, Sara Amirpour; Wambacq, Julie; Lagrou, Katrien; Ducoffre, Geneviève; Van Ranst, Marc; Berckmans, Daniel; Coppin, Pol

2010-01-01

The connection between nephropathia epidemica (NE) and vegetation dynamics has been emphasized in recent studies. Changing climate has been suggested as a triggering factor of recently observed epidemiologic peaks in reported NE cases. We have investigated whether there is a connection between the NE occurrence pattern in Belgium and specific trends in remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests. The analysis of time series of the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index revealed that changes in forest phenology, considered in literature as an effect of climate change, may affect the mechanics of NE transmission. PMID:20644685

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Marsh, R. Lee; Posthumus, Erin E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2018-04-25

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate.

PubMed

Ramos, M C; Jones, G V; Yuste, J

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27(th), bloom June 17(th), and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Jones, G. V.; Yuste, J.

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27th, bloom June 17th, and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

The plant phenological online database (PPODB): an online database for long-term phenological data.

PubMed

Dierenbach, Jonas; Badeck, Franz-W; Schaber, Jörg

2013-09-01

We present an online database that provides unrestricted and free access to over 16 million plant phenological observations from over 8,000 stations in Central Europe between the years 1880 and 2009. Unique features are (1) a flexible and unrestricted access to a full-fledged database, allowing for a wide range of individual queries and data retrieval, (2) historical data for Germany before 1951 ranging back to 1880, and (3) more than 480 curated long-term time series covering more than 100 years for individual phenological phases and plants combined over Natural Regions in Germany. Time series for single stations or Natural Regions can be accessed through a user-friendly graphical geo-referenced interface. The joint databases made available with the plant phenological database PPODB render accessible an important data source for further analyses of long-term changes in phenology. The database can be accessed via www.ppodb.de .

Characterization of Ice Roughness From Simulated Icing Encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, David N.; Shin, Jaiwon

1997-01-01

Detailed measurements of the size of roughness elements on ice accreted on models in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) were made in a previous study. Only limited data from that study have been published, but included were the roughness element height, diameter and spacing. In the present study, the height and spacing data were found to correlate with the element diameter, and the diameter was found to be a function primarily of the non-dimensional parameters freezing fraction and accumulation parameter. The width of the smooth zone which forms at the leading edge of the model was found to decrease with increasing accumulation parameter. Although preliminary, the success of these correlations suggests that it may be possible to develop simple relationships between ice roughness and icing conditions for use in ice-accretion-prediction codes. These codes now require an ice-roughness estimate to determine convective heat transfer. Studies using a 7.6-cm-diameter cylinder and a 53.3-cm-chord NACA 0012 airfoil were also performed in which a 1/2-min icing spray at an initial set of conditions was followed by a 9-1/2-min spray at a second set of conditions. The resulting ice shape was compared with that from a full 10-min spray at the second set of conditions. The initial ice accumulation appeared to have no effect on the final ice shape. From this result, it would appear the accreting ice is affected very little by the initial roughness or shape features.

Elucidating Inherent Uncertainties in Data Assimilation for Predictions Incorporating Non-stationary Processes - Focus on Predictive Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation (DA) is the widely accepted procedure for estimating parameters within predictive models because of the adaptability and uncertainty quantification offered by Bayesian methods. DA applications in phenology modeling offer critical insights into how extreme weather or changes in climate impact the vegetation life cycle. Changes in leaf onset and senescence, root phenology, and intermittent leaf shedding imply large changes in the surface radiative, water, and carbon budgets at multiple scales. Models of leaf phenology require concurrent atmospheric and soil conditions to determine how biophysical plant properties respond to changes in temperature, light and water demand. Presently, climatological records for fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI), the modelled states indicative of plant phenology, are not available. Further, DA models are typically trained on short periods of record (e.g. less than 10 years). Using limited records with a DA framework imposes non-stationarity on estimated parameters and the resulting predicted model states. This talk discusses how uncertainty introduced by the inherent non-stationarity of the modeled processes propagates through a land-surface hydrology model coupled to a predictive phenology model. How water demand is accounted for in the upscaling of DA model inputs and analysis period serves as a key source of uncertainty in the FPAR and LAI predictions. Parameters estimated from different DA effectively calibrate a plant water-use strategy within the land-surface hydrology model. For example, when extreme droughts are included in the DA period, the plants are trained to uptake water, transpire, and assimilate carbon under favorable conditions and quickly shut down at the onset of water stress.

Sensitivity studies with a coupled ice-ocean model of the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roed, L. P.

1983-01-01

An analytical coupled ice-ocean model is considered which is forced by a specified wind stress acting on the open ocean as well as the ice. The analysis supports the conjecture that the upwelling dynamics at ice edges can be understood by means of a simple analytical model. In similarity with coastal problems it is shown that the ice edge upwelling is determined by the net mass flux at the boundaries of the considered region. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the upwelling dynamics in the marginal ice zone to variation in the controlling parameters. These parameters consist of combinations of the drag coefficients used in the parameterization of the stresses on the three interfaces atmosphere-ice, atmosphere-ocean, and ice-ocean. The response is shown to be sensitive to variations in these parameters in that one set of parameters may give upwelling while a slightly different set of parameters may give downwelling.

Evaluating Gridded Spring Indices Using the USA National Phenology Network's Observational Phenology Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.

2017-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) produces and freely delivers daily and short-term forecast maps of spring onset dates at fine spatial scale for the conterminous United States and Alaska using the Spring Indices. These models, which represent the start of biological activity in the spring season, were developed using a long-term observational record of four species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers. Three of the four species continue to be tracked through the USA-NPN's phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook. The gridded Spring Index maps have utility for a wide range of natural resource planning and management applications, including scheduling invasive species and pest detection and control activities, anticipating allergy outbreaks and planning agricultural harvest dates. However, to date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of how well the gridded Spring Index maps accurately reflect phenological activity in lilacs and honeysuckles or other species of plants. In this study, we used observational plant phenology data maintained by the USA-NPN to evaluate how well the gridded Spring Index maps match leaf and flowering onset dates in a) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models and b) in several species of deciduous trees. The Spring Index performed strongly at predicting the timing of leaf-out and flowering in lilacs and honeysuckles. The average error between predicted and observed date of onset ranged from 5.9 to 11.4 days. Flowering models performed slightly better than leaf-out models. The degree to which the Spring Indices predicted native deciduous tree leaf and flower phenology varied by year, species, and region. Generally, the models were better predictors of leaf and flowering onset dates in the Northeastern and Midwestern US. These results reveal when and where the Spring Indices are a meaningful proxy of phenological activity across the United States.

Land surface phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanes, Jonathan M.; Liang, Liang; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2013-01-01

Certain vegetation types (e.g., deciduous shrubs, deciduous trees, grasslands) have distinct life cycles marked by the growth and senescence of leaves and periods of enhanced photosynthetic activity. Where these types exist, recurring changes in foliage alter the reflectance of electromagnetic radiation from the land surface, which can be measured using remote sensors. The timing of these recurring changes in reflectance is called land surface phenology (LSP). During recent decades, a variety of methods have been used to derive LSP metrics from time series of reflectance measurements acquired by satellite-borne sensors. In contrast to conventional phenology observations, LSP metrics represent the timing of reflectance changes that are driven by the aggregate activity of vegetation within the areal unit measured by the satellite sensor and do not directly provide information about the phenology of individual plants, species, or their phenophases. Despite the generalized nature of satellite sensor-derived measurements, they have proven useful for studying changes in LSP associated with various phenomena. This chapter provides a detailed overview of the use of satellite remote sensing to monitor LSP. First, the theoretical basis for the application of satellite remote sensing to the study of vegetation phenology is presented. After establishing a theoretical foundation for LSP, methods of deriving and validating LSP metrics are discussed. This chapter concludes with a discussion of major research findings and current and future research directions.

Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, Jessica; de Beurs, Kirsten; Wynne, Randolph

2015-01-01

Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009) that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM) to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.

The plant phenological online database (PPODB): an online database for long-term phenological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierenbach, Jonas; Badeck, Franz-W.; Schaber, Jörg

2013-09-01

We present an online database that provides unrestricted and free access to over 16 million plant phenological observations from over 8,000 stations in Central Europe between the years 1880 and 2009. Unique features are (1) a flexible and unrestricted access to a full-fledged database, allowing for a wide range of individual queries and data retrieval, (2) historical data for Germany before 1951 ranging back to 1880, and (3) more than 480 curated long-term time series covering more than 100 years for individual phenological phases and plants combined over Natural Regions in Germany. Time series for single stations or Natural Regions can be accessed through a user-friendly graphical geo-referenced interface. The joint databases made available with the plant phenological database PPODB render accessible an important data source for further analyses of long-term changes in phenology. The database can be accessed via www.ppodb.de .

Toward a U.S. National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2010-01-01

Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.

PEP725 Pan European Phenological Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Elisabeth; Adler, Silke; Ungersböck, Markus; Zach-Hermann, Susanne

2010-05-01

Europe is in the fortunate situation that it has a long tradition in phenological networking: the history of collecting phenological data and using them in climatology has its starting point in 1751 when Carl von Linné outlined in his work Philosophia Botanica methods for compiling annual plant calendars of leaf opening, flowering, fruiting and leaf fall together with climatological observations "so as to show how areas differ". The Societas Meteorologicae Palatinae at Mannheim well known for its first European wide meteorological network also established a phenological network which was active from 1781 to 1792. Recently in most European countries, phenological observations have been carried out routinely for more than 50 years by different governmental and non governmental organisations and following different observation guidelines, the data stored at different places in different formats. This has been really hampering pan European studies, as one has to address many National Observations Programs (NOP) to get access to the data before one can start to bring them in a uniform style. From 2004 to 2005 the COST-action 725 was running with the main objective to establish a European reference data set of phenological observations that can be used for climatological purposes, especially climate monitoring, and detection of changes. So far the common database/reference data set of COST725 comprises 7687248 data from 7285 observation sites in 15 countries and International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning the timeframe from 1951 to 2000. ZAMG is hosting the database. In January 2010 PEP725 has started and will take over not only the part of maintaining, updating the database, but also to bring in phenological data from the time before 1951, developing better quality checking procedures and ensuring an open access to the database. An attractive webpage will make phenology and climate impacts on vegetation more visible in the public enabling a monitoring of

Incorporating Plant Phenology Dynamics in a Biophysical Canopy Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barata, Raquel A.; Drewry, Darren

2012-01-01

The Multi-Layer Canopy Model (MLCan) is a vegetation model created to capture plant responses to environmental change. Themodel vertically resolves carbon uptake, water vapor and energy exchange at each canopy level by coupling photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and leaf energy balance. The model is forced by incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, as well as near-surface meteorological conditions. The original formulation of MLCan utilized canopy structural traits derived from observations. This project aims to incorporate a plant phenology scheme within MLCan allowing these structural traits to vary dynamically. In the plant phenology scheme implemented here, plant growth is dependent on environmental conditions such as air temperature and soil moisture. The scheme includes functionality that models plant germination, growth, and senescence. These growth stages dictate the variation in six different vegetative carbon pools: storage, leaves, stem, coarse roots, fine roots, and reproductive. The magnitudes of these carbon pools determine land surface parameters such as leaf area index, canopy height, rooting depth and root water uptake capacity. Coupling this phenology scheme with MLCan allows for a more flexible representation of the structure and function of vegetation as it responds to changing environmental conditions.

Students Engaged in Climate Change Research Through Vegetation Phenology Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Verbyla, D. L.; White, M. A.; Gordon, L. S.

2004-12-01

The project goal is to engage students in scientific research as a way of learning science, math, and technology in K-12 classrooms by providing an opportunity for student-scientist collaborations. This NSF-funded GLOBE project is of significance to scientists who track plant phenological changes as an indicator of climate change and study carbon cycling. To students it is a means of studying Earth as a system. Plants and their phenology stages reflect and integrate the effects of weather and other environmental parameters that are components of the Earth system. Remotely sensed data indicate that the plant growing season has increased in northern latitudes. The greenness estimates could vary due to possible interference from clouds and other atmospheric properties, low sun angles at high latitudes and aging of satellite detectors; hence the need for ground-based observations to help validate satellite-derived estimates of plant growing season lengths. GLOBE plant phenology measurements (protocols) of Green-up and Green-down for deciduous trees and shrubs, and for grasses were developed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Budburst at Utah State University. These were pilot- tested, and revised several times with input from teachers and GLOBE personnel. Learning activities to support understanding of science concepts, were also developed and/or adapted. The protocols and learning activities were aligned to national science standards and incorporated in the "Earth as a System" chapter in the 2003 GLOBE Teacher Guide published and also posted on the GLOBE website (www.globe.gov). Phenology protocols and learning activities are being used in Alaska by teachers and students who participate in different NSF and NASA-funded science education programs, such as the Schoolyard Long Term Ecological Research Project, the Global Change Education Using Western Science and Native Observations (OLCG) Project, the Alaska GLOBE program and the EPSCoR Rural Research

Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and

Characterising the Land Surface Phenology of Mediterranean Pinus species using the MODIS NDVI time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Aragones, David; Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael M.; Caparros-Santiago, Jose A.

2017-04-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) can improve the monitoring of forest areas and their change processes. The aim of this work is to characterize the temporal dynamics in Mediterranean Pinus forests. The different experiments were based on 679 mono-specific plots for the 5 native species in the Iberian Peninsula: P. sylvestris, P. pinea, P. halepensis, P. nigra and P. pinaster, which were obtained from the Third National Forest Inventory of Spain. The whole MODIS NDVI time series (2000-2016) were used to characterize the seasonal behavior of the pine forest. The following phenological parameters were extracted for each cycle from the smoothed time series: the day of beginning, end, middle and the length in days of season also base value, maximum value, amplitude and integrated value. Multi-temporal metrics were calculated to synthesize the inter-annual variability of the phenological parameters. An atypical behavior was detected for the years 2004 and 2011 and 2000, 2009 and 2015 for all Pinus species, matching wet and dry cycles, respectively. The inter and intra-species analysis of NDVI and LSP showed two different patterns: an important decreasing during the summer for those species such as P. halepensis, P. pinea y P. pinaster; and a lower NDVI variation among the year for P. sylvestris and P. nigra in certain areas. P. sylvestris had a phenological behavior different to P. pinea, P. halepensis and P. pinaster. P. nigra showed and heterogeneous intra-specific behaviour that might be associated to the existence of subspecies with different phenology.

Analysis on Difference of Forest Phenology Extracted from EVI and LAI Based on PhenoCams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Jing, L.; Qinhuo, L.

2017-12-01

Land surface phenology can make up for the deficiency of field observation with advantages of capturing the continuous expression of phenology on a large scale. However, there are some variability in phenological metrics derived from different satellite time-series data of vegetation parameters. This paper aims at assessing the difference of phenology information extracted from EVI and LAI time series. To achieve this, some web-camera sites were selected to analyze the characteristics between MODIS-EVI and MODIS-LAI time series from 2010 to 2014 for different forest types, including evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forest, deciduous coniferous forest and deciduous broadleaf forest. At the same time, satellite-based phenological metrics were extracted by the Logistics algorithm and compared with camera-based phenological metrics. Results show that the SOS and EOS that are extracted from LAI are close to bud burst and leaf defoliation respectively, while the SOS and EOS that are extracted from EVI is close to leaf unfolding and leaf coloring respectively. Thus the SOS that is extracted from LAI is earlier than that from EVI, while the EOS that is extracted from LAI is later than that from EVI at deciduous forest sites. Although the seasonal variation characteristics of evergreen forests are not apparent, significant discrepancies exist in LAI time series and EVI time series. In addition, Satellite- and camera-based phenological metrics agree well generally, but EVI has higher correlation with the camera-based canopy greenness (green chromatic coordinate, gcc) than LAI.

Separating temperature from other factors in phenological measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Mark D.; Hanes, Jonathan M.; Liang, Liang

2014-09-01

Phenological observations offer a simple and effective way to measure climate change effects on the biosphere. While some species in northern mixed forests show a highly sensitive site preference to microenvironmental differences (i.e., the species is present in certain areas and absent in others), others with a more plastic environmental response (e.g., Acer saccharum, sugar maple) allow provisional separation of the universal "background" phenological variation caused by in situ (possibly biological/genetic) variation from the microclimatic gradients in air temperature. Moran's I tests for spatial autocorrelation among the phenological data showed significant ( α ≤ 0.05) clustering across the study area, but random patterns within the microclimates themselves, with isolated exceptions. In other words, the presence of microclimates throughout the study area generally results in spatial autocorrelation because they impact the overall phenological development of sugar maple trees. However, within each microclimate (where temperature conditions are relatively uniform) there is little or no spatial autocorrelation because phenological differences are due largely to randomly distributed in situ factors. The phenological responses from 2008 and 2009 for two sugar maple phenological stages showed the relationship between air temperature degree-hour departure and phenological change ranged from 0.5 to 1.2 days earlier for each additional 100 degree-hours. Further, the standard deviations of phenological event dates within individual microclimates (for specific events and years) ranged from 2.6 to 3.8 days. Thus, that range of days is inferred to be the "background" phenological variation caused by factors other than air temperature variations, such as genetic differences between individuals.

Phenological Indicators of Vegetation Recovery in Wetland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taddeo, S.; Dronova, I.

2017-12-01

Landscape phenology is increasingly used to measure the impacts of climatic and environmental disturbances on plant communities. As plants show rapid phenological responses to environmental changes, variation in site phenology can help characterize vegetation recovery following restoration treatments and qualify their resistance to environmental fluctuations. By leveraging free remote sensing datasets, a phenology-based analysis of vegetation dynamics could offer a cost-effective assessment of restoration progress in wetland ecosystems. To fulfill this objective, we analyze 20 years of free remote sensing data from NASA's Landsat archive to offer a landscape-scale synthesis of wetland restoration efforts in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California, USA. Through an analysis of spatio-temporal changes in plant phenology and greenness, we assess how 25 restored wetlands across the Delta have responded to restoration treatments, time, and landscape context. We use a spline smoothing approach to generate both site-wide and pixel-specific phenological curves and identify key phenological events. Preliminary results reveal a greater variability in greenness and growing season length during the initial post-restoration years and a significant impact of landscape context in the time needed to reach phenological stability. Well-connected sites seem to benefit from an increased availability of propagules enabling them to reach peak greenness and maximum growing season length more rapidly. These results demonstrate the potential of phenological analyses to measure restoration progress and detect factors promoting wetland recovery. A thorough understanding of wetland phenology is key to the quantification of ecosystem processes including carbon sequestration and habitat provisioning.

Examining spring and autumn phenology in a temperate deciduous urban woodlot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Rong

This dissertation is an intensive phenological study in a temperate deciduous urban woodlot over six consecutive years (2007-2012). It explores three important topics related to spring and autumn phenology, as well as ground and remote sensing phenology. First, it examines key climatic factors influencing spring and autumn phenology by conducting phenological observations four days a week and recording daily microclimate measurements. Second, it investigates the differences in phenological responses between an urban woodlot and a rural forest by employing comparative basswood phenological data. Finally, it bridges ground visual phenology and remote sensing derived phenological changes by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS). The primary outcomes are as follows: 1) empirical spatial regression models for two dominant tree species - basswood and white ash - have been built and analyzed to detect spatial patterns and possible causes of phenological change; the results show that local urban settings significantly affect phenology; 2) empirical phenological progression models have been built for each species and the community as a whole to examine how phenology develops in spring and autumn; the results indicate that the critical factor influencing spring phenology is AGDD (accumulated growing degree-days) and for autumn phenology, ACDD (accumulated chilling degree-days) and day length; and 3) satellite derived phenological changes have been compared with ground visual community phenology in both spring and autumn seasons, and the results confirm that both NDVI and EVI depict vegetation dynamics well and therefore have corresponding phenological meanings.

Disaggregating tree and grass phenology in tropical savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qiang

Savannas are mixed tree-grass systems and as one of the world's largest biomes represent an important component of the Earth system affecting water and energy balances, carbon sequestration and biodiversity as well as supporting large human populations. Savanna vegetation structure and its distribution, however, may change because of major anthropogenic disturbances from climate change, wildfire, agriculture, and livestock production. The overstory and understory may have different water use strategies, different nutrient requirements and have different responses to fire and climate variation. The accurate measurement of the spatial distribution and structure of the overstory and understory are essential for understanding the savanna ecosystem. This project developed a workflow for separating the dynamics of the overstory and understory fractional cover in savannas at the continental scale (Australia, South America, and Africa). Previous studies have successfully separated the phenology of Australian savanna vegetation into persistent and seasonal greenness using time series decomposition, and into fractions of photosynthetic vegetation (PV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) and bare soil (BS) using linear unmixing. This study combined these methods to separate the understory and overstory signal in both the green and senescent phenological stages using remotely sensed imagery from the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor. The methods and parameters were adjusted based on the vegetation variation. The workflow was first tested at the Australian site. Here the PV estimates for overstory and understory showed best performance, however NPV estimates exhibited spatial variation in validation relationships. At the South American site (Cerrado), an additional method based on frequency unmixing was developed to separate green vegetation components with similar phenology. When the decomposition and frequency methods were compared, the frequency

Identifying and prioritizing phenological data products and tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Schwartz, Mark D.

2012-09-01

USA National Phenology Network Research Coordination Network Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 22-23 May 2012 Phenology is the study of reoccurring life cycle events in plants and animals, such as bird migrations, emergence from hibernation, flowering, and carbon cycling. Changes in the timing of phenological events are widely recognized as indicators of the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Phenological data can be used to inform wildlife management, wildfire and pollen forecasting, and the planning of events such as the National Cherry Blossom Festival. Until recently, collection of phenological data using standardized methods was relatively rare, limiting their use in science, management, and decision making.

PEP725 Pan European Phenological Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, E.; Adler, S.; Lipa, W.; Ungersböck, M.; Zach-Hermann, S.

2010-09-01

Europe is in the fortunate situation that it has a long tradition in phenological networking: the history of collecting phenological data and using them in climatology has its starting point in 1751 when Carl von Linné outlined in his work Philosophia Botanica methods for compiling annual plant calendars of leaf opening, flowering, fruiting and leaf fall together with climatological observations "so as to show how areas differ". Recently in most European countries, phenological observations have been carried out routinely for more than 50 years by different governmental and non governmental organisations and following different observation guidelines, the data stored at different places in different formats. This has been really hampering pan European studies as one has to address many network operators to get access to the data before one can start to bring them in a uniform style. From 2004 to 2009 the COST-action 725 established a European wide data set of phenological observations. But the deliverables of this COST action was not only the common phenological database and common observation guidelines - COST725 helped to trigger a revival of some old networks and to establish new ones as for instance in Sweden. At the end of 2009 the COST action the database comprised about 8 million data in total from 15 European countries plus the data from the International Phenological Gardens IPG. In January 2010 PEP725 began its work as follow up project with funding from EUMETNET the network of European meteorological services and of ZAMG the Austrian national meteorological service. PEP725 not only will take over the part of maintaining, updating the COST725 database, but also to bring in phenological data from the time before 1951, developing better quality checking procedures and ensuring an open access to the database. An attractive webpage will make phenology and climate impacts on vegetation more visible in the public enabling a monitoring of vegetation development.

Synthesizing plant phenological indicators from multispecies datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Peñuelas, Josep; Filella, Iolanda; Gehrig, Regula; Scherrer, Simon C.; Röthlisberger, Christian

2014-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants from phenological observations are traditionally analysed at the species level. Trends and correlations with main environmental driving variables show a coherent picture across the globe. The question arises whether there is an integrated phenological signal across species that describes common interannual variability. Is there a way to express synthetic phenological indicators from multispecies datasets that serve decision makers as usefull tools? Can these indicators be derived in such a robust way that systematic updates yield necessary information for adaptation measures? We address these questions by analysing multi-species phenological data sets with leaf-unfolding and flowering observations from 30 sites across Europe between 40° and 63°N including data from PEP725, the Swiss Plant Phenological Observation Network and one legacy data set. Starting in 1951 the data sets were synthesized by multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis). The representativeness of the site specific indicator was tested against subsets including only leaf-unfolding or flowering phases, and by a comparison with a 50% random sample of the available phenophases for 500 time steps. Results show that a synthetic indicators explains up to 79% of the variance at each site - usually 40-50% or more. Robust linear trends over the common period 1971-2000 indicate an overall change of the indicator of -0.32 days/year with lower uncertainty than previous studies. Advances were more pronounced in southern and northern Europe. The indicator-based analysis provides a promising tool for synthesizing site-based plant phenological records and is a companion to, and validating data for, an increasing number of phenological measurements derived from phenological models and satellite sensors.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

2014-05-01

The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

Testing hypotheses on distribution shifts and changes in phenology of imperfectly detectable species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambert, Thierry A.; Kendall, William L.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.; Pedrini, Paolo; Waddle, J. Hardin; Tavecchia, Giacomo; Walls, Susan C.; Tenan, Simone

2015-01-01

With ongoing climate change, many species are expected to shift their spatial and temporal distributions. To document changes in species distribution and phenology, detection/non-detection data have proven very useful. Occupancy models provide a robust way to analyse such data, but inference is usually focused on species spatial distribution, not phenology.We present a multi-season extension of the staggered-entry occupancy model of Kendall et al. (2013, Ecology, 94, 610), which permits inference about the within-season patterns of species arrival and departure at sampling sites. The new model presented here allows investigation of species phenology and spatial distribution across years, as well as site extinction/colonization dynamics.We illustrate the model with two data sets on European migratory passerines and one data set on North American treefrogs. We show how to derive several additional phenological parameters, such as annual mean arrival and departure dates, from estimated arrival and departure probabilities.Given the extent of detection/non-detection data that are available, we believe that this modelling approach will prove very useful to further understand and predict species responses to climate change.

An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

2013-12-01

As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change and its implication for terrestrial biosphere models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Cescatti, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Richardson, A. D.

2012-01-01

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate systems through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Land surface models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we analyzed the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize the sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling in the future. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species with 12 phenological models of different complexity to predict leaf bud-burst. The evaluation of different phenological models indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, though to a lesser extent, to chilling models based on the alternating model structure. We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% CI: 2.4 day century-1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 day century-1 for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 day century-1 in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied somewhat among models (±7.7 day century-1 for A1fi, ±3.6 day century-1 for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 day °C-1 and 5.2 day °C-1 depending

Plants and pixels: Comparing phenologies from the ground and from space (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, T.; Stoekli, R.; Jeanneret, F.; Peñuelas, J.

2010-12-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies. At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model’s empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Chambers, Lynda E.; Altwegg, Res; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnard, Phoebe; Beaumont, Linda J.; Crawford, Robert J. M.; Durant, Joel M.; Hughes, Lesley; Keatley, Marie R.; Low, Matt; Morellato, Patricia C.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Ruoppolo, Valeria; Vanstreels, Ralph E. T.; Woehler, Eric J.; Wolfaardt, Anton C.

2013-01-01

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically

Environmental factors controlling phytoplankton productivity and phenology in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardyna, M.; Claustre, H.; Sallee, J. B.; Gentili, B.; D'Ortenzio, F.

2016-02-01

The Southern Ocean (SO), highly sensitive to climate change, is currently experiencing a rapid warming and freshening. Such drastic hydrographical changes may significantly alter the SO's biological carbon pump (i.e., the efficiency of primary production and its transfers to higher trophic levels and/or sequestration to depth). However, before making any predictions, a better understanding of the biogeography and environmental factors controlling phytoplankton processes (i.e., productivity and phenology) in the Southern Ocean is clearly needed. We present here a bio-regionalization of the SO from satellite-derived observations, where a range of three orders of magnitude of productivity is observed. A clear latitudinal gradient in the bloom initiation was underpinned following the light regime, with some exception in well-mixed and sea-ice edge areas. Environmental factors controlling the phytoplankton phenology and productivity appear to be completely decoupled. Phytoplankton productivity in the SO is clearly associated to both shallow areas and front locations, where iron limitation seems to be less pronounced. These findings will give us a more comprehensive understanding in both space and time of the limiting factors of PP (i.e., nutrients, light-mixing regime…), which are of fundamental interest for identifying and explaining potential ongoing changes in SO's marine ecosystems.

Sea-ice indicators of polar bear habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, Harry L.; Laidre, Kristin L.

2016-09-01

Nineteen subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are found throughout the circumpolar Arctic, and in all regions they depend on sea ice as a platform for traveling, hunting, and breeding. Therefore polar bear phenology - the cycle of biological events - is linked to the timing of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall. We analyzed the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in all 19 polar bear subpopulation regions from 1979 to 2014, using daily sea-ice concentration data from satellite passive microwave instruments. We define the dates of sea-ice retreat and advance in a region as the dates when the area of sea ice drops below a certain threshold (retreat) on its way to the summer minimum or rises above the threshold (advance) on its way to the winter maximum. The threshold is chosen to be halfway between the historical (1979-2014) mean September and mean March sea-ice areas. In all 19 regions there is a trend toward earlier sea-ice retreat and later sea-ice advance. Trends generally range from -3 to -9 days decade-1 in spring and from +3 to +9 days decade-1 in fall, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The trends are not sensitive to the threshold. We also calculated the number of days per year that the sea-ice area exceeded the threshold (termed ice-covered days) and the average sea-ice concentration from 1 June through 31 October. The number of ice-covered days is declining in all regions at the rate of -7 to -19 days decade-1, with larger trends in the Barents Sea and central Arctic Basin. The June-October sea-ice concentration is declining in all regions at rates ranging from -1 to -9 percent decade-1. These sea-ice metrics (or indicators of habitat change) were designed to be useful for management agencies and for comparative purposes among subpopulations. We recommend that the National Climate Assessment include the timing of sea-ice retreat and advance in future reports.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Measurement of the Critical Distance Parameter Against Icing Conditions on a NACA 0012 Swept Wing Tip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vargas, Mario; Kreeger, Richard E.

2011-01-01

This work presents the results of three experiments, one conducted in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at NASA Glenn Research Center and two in the Goodrich Icing Wind Tunnel (IWT). The experiments were designed to measure the critical distance parameter on a NACA 0012 Swept Wing Tip at sweep angles of 45deg, 30deg, and 15deg. A time sequence imaging technique (TSIT) was used to obtain real time close-up imaging data during the first 2 min of the ice accretion formation. The time sequence photographic data was used to measure the critical distance at each icing condition and to study how it develops in real time. The effect on the critical distance of liquid water content, drop size, total temperature, and velocity was studied. The results were interpreted using a simple energy balance on a roughness element

Perspectivs and challenges of phenology research on South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrícia Morellato, Leonor

2017-04-01

Detecting plant responses to environmental changes across the Southern Hemisphere is an important question in the global agenda, as there is still a shortage of studies addressing phenological trends related to global warming. Here I bring a fresh perspective on the current knowledge of South America's phenology, and discusss the challenges and future research agendas for one of the most diverse regions of the world. I will syntethize: (i) What is the current focus of contemporany phenological research in South America? (ii) Is phenology contributing to the detection of trends and shifts related to climate or antropogenic changes? (iii) How has phenology been integrated to conservation, restoration, and management of natural vegetation and endangered species? (iv) What would be the main challenges and new avenues for South American phenological research in the 21st century? (v) Can we move towards phenology monitoring networks, linked to citizen science and education? My perspective is based on recent reviews addressing the Southeastern Hemisphere, South America, and Neotropical phenology; and on reviews and essays on the contribution of phenological research to biodiversity conservation, management, and ecological restoration, emphasizing tropical, species-rich ecosystems. Phenological research has grown at an unprecedented rate in the last 20 years, surpassing 100 articles per year after 2010. There is still a predominance of short-term studies (2-3 years) describing patterns and drivers for reproduction and leaf exchange. Only 10 long-term studies were found, based on direct observations or plant traps, and this number did not add much to the previous surveys. Therefore, we remain in need of more long-term studies to enhance the contribution of phenology to climate change research in South America. It is also mandatory to bring conservation issues to phenology research. The effects of climatic and antropogenic changes on plant phenology have been addressed

Do morphometric parameters and geological conditions determine chemistry of glacier surface ice? Spatial distribution of contaminants present in the surface ice of Spitsbergen glaciers (European Arctic).

PubMed

Lehmann, Sara; Gajek, Grzegorz; Chmiel, Stanisław; Polkowska, Żaneta

2016-12-01

The chemism of the glaciers is strongly determined by long-distance transport of chemical substances and their wet and dry deposition on the glacier surface. This paper concerns spatial distribution of metals, ions, and dissolved organic carbon, as well as the differentiation of physicochemical parameters (pH, electrical conductivity) determined in ice surface samples collected from four Arctic glaciers during the summer season in 2012. The studied glaciers represent three different morphological types: ground based (Blomlibreen and Scottbreen), tidewater which evolved to ground based (Renardbreen), and typical tidewater glacier (Recherchebreen). All of the glaciers are functioning as a glacial system and hence are subject to the same physical processes (melting, freezing) and the process of ice flowing resulting from the cross-impact force of gravity and topographic conditions. According to this hypothesis, the article discusses the correlation between morphometric parameters, changes in mass balance, geological characteristics of the glaciers and the spatial distribution of analytes on the surface of ice. A strong correlation (r = 0.63) is recorded between the aspect of glaciers and values of pH and ions, whereas dissolved organic carbon (DOC) depends on the minimum elevation of glaciers (r = 0.55) and most probably also on the development of the accumulation area. The obtained results suggest that although certain morphometric parameters largely determine the spatial distribution of analytes, also the geology of the bed of glaciers strongly affects the chemism of the surface ice of glaciers in the phase of strong recession.

Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.

PubMed

Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L

2017-04-01

While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

Phenology of forest-grassland transition zones in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlin, K.; Fisher, R. A.

2013-12-01

Forest-grassland transition zones (savannas, woodlands, wooded grasslands, and shrublands) are highly sensitive to climate and may already be changing due to warming, changes in precipitation patterns, and/or CO2 fertilization. Shifts between closed canopy forest and open grassland, as well as shifts in phenology, could have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, water balance, albedo, and on the humans and other animals that depend on these regions. From an earth system perspective these impacts may then feed back into the climate system and impact how, when, and where climate change occurs. Here we compare 29 years of monthly leaf area index (LAI) outputs from several offline versions of the Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of the Community Earth System Model, to LAI derived from the AVHRR NDVI3g product (LAI3g). Specifically, we focus on seasonal patterns in regions dominated by tropical broadleaved deciduous trees (T-BDT), broadleaved deciduous shrubs (BDS) and grasslands (C3 and C4) in CLM, all of which follow a 'stress deciduous' phenological algorithm. We consider and compare two versions of CLM (v. 4CN and v. 4.5BGC) to the satellite derived product. We found that both versions of CLM were able to capture seasonal variations in grasslands relatively well at the regional scale, but that the 'stress deciduous' phenology algorithm did not perform well in areas dominated by T-BDT or BDS. When we compared the performance of the models at single points we found slight improvements in CLM4.5BGC over CLM4CN, but generally that the magnitude of seasonality was too low in CLM as compared to the LAI3g satellite product. To explore the parameters within CLM that had the most leverage on seasonality of LAI, we used a Latin hypercube approach to vary values for critical soil water potential (threshold at which plants drop leaves), the critical number of days that soil water potential must be too low for leaves to drop, and the carbon allocation scheme

Implementing a U.S. national phenology network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betancourt, J.L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Inouye, D.W.; Post, E.; Reed, B.C.

2005-01-01

The passing of seasons, as gauged by annual events or phenophases in organisms' life cycles, is arguably one of the most pervasive environmental variations on Earth. Shifts in seasonal timing, or phenology, are observed in flowering and other stages of plant development, animal migration and reproduction, hibernation, and the seasonal activity of cold-blooded animals [e.g., Schwartz, 2003; Root et al., 2005]. As an important life history trait, phenology is an object of natural selection; depending on timescales, shifts in phenology can lead to evolutionary change. Thus, phenology is not only an indicator of pattern in environmental science, but also its variation has fitness consequences for individuals, and these can scale up to broader ecological dynamics.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

Using Land Surface Phenology as the Basis for a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S. P.; Hoffman, F. M.

2011-12-01

The National Early Warning System (EWS) provides an 8-day coast-to-coast snapshot of potentially disturbed forests across the U.S.. A prototype system has produced national maps of potential forest disturbances every eight days since January 2010, identifying locations that may require further investigation. Through phenology, the system shows both early and delayed vegetation development and detects all types of unexpected forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, landslides, drought, flood, and climate change. The USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center is collaborating with NASA Stennis Space Center and the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center to develop the tool. The EWS uses differences in phenological responses between an expectation based on historical data and a current view to strategically identify potential forest disturbances and direct attention to locations where forest behavior seems unusual. Disturbance maps are available via the Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV) (http://ews.forestthreats.org/gis), which allows resource managers and other users to see the most current national disturbance maps as soon as they are available. Phenology-based detections show not only vegetation disturbances in the classical sense, but all departures from normal seasonal vegetation behavior. In 2010, the EWS detected a repeated late-frost event at high elevations in North Carolina, USA, that resulted in delayed seasonal development, contrasting with an early spring development at lower elevations, all within close geographic proximity. Throughout 2011, there was a high degree of correspondence between the National Climatic Data Center's North American Drought Monitor maps and EWS maps of phenological drought disturbance in forests. Urban forests showed earlier and more severe phenological drought disturbance than

Phenology monitoring protocol: Northeast Temperate Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tierney, Geri; Mitchell, Brian; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Katz, Jonathan; Denny, Ellen; Brauer, Corinne; Donovan, Therese; Richardson, Andrew D.; Toomey, Michael; Kozlowski, Adam; Weltzin, Jake F.; Gerst, Kathy; Sharron, Ed; Sonnentag, Oliver; Dieffenbach, Fred

2013-01-01

historical parks and national historic sites in the northeastern US. This protocol was developed in collaboration with and relies upon the procedures and infrastructure of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), including Nature’s Notebook, USA-NPN’s online plant and animal phenology observation program (www.nn.usanpn.org). Organized in 2007, USA-NPN is a nation-wide partnership among federal agencies, schools and universities, citizen volunteers, and others to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the nation’s biological resources. The overall goal of NETN’s phenology monitoring program is to determine trends in the phenology of key species in order to assist park managers with the detection and mitigation of the effects of climate change on park resources. An additional programmatic goal is to interest and educate park visitors and staff, as well as a cadre of volunteer monitors.

Correction to the Dynamic Tensile Strength of Ice and Ice-Silicate Mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S. T.; Ahrens, T. J.

1999-03-01

We present a correction to the Weibull parameters for ice and ice-silicate mixtures (Lange & Ahrens 1983). These parameters relate the dynamic tensile strength to the strain rate. These data are useful for continuum fracture models of ice.

Predicting bird phenology from space: satellite-derived vegetation green-up signal uncovers spatial variation in phenological synchrony between birds and their environment.

PubMed

Cole, Ella F; Long, Peter R; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Szulkin, Marta; Sheldon, Ben C

2015-11-01

Population-level studies of how tit species (Parus spp.) track the changing phenology of their caterpillar food source have provided a model system allowing inference into how populations can adjust to changing climates, but are often limited because they implicitly assume all individuals experience similar environments. Ecologists are increasingly using satellite-derived data to quantify aspects of animals' environments, but so far studies examining phenology have generally done so at large spatial scales. Considering the scale at which individuals experience their environment is likely to be key if we are to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes acting on reproductive phenology within populations. Here, we use time series of satellite images, with a resolution of 240 m, to quantify spatial variation in vegetation green-up for a 385-ha mixed-deciduous woodland. Using data spanning 13 years, we demonstrate that annual population-level measures of the timing of peak abundance of winter moth larvae (Operophtera brumata) and the timing of egg laying in great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is related to satellite-derived spring vegetation phenology. We go on to show that timing of local vegetation green-up significantly explained individual differences in tit reproductive phenology within the population, and that the degree of synchrony between bird and vegetation phenology showed marked spatial variation across the woodland. Areas of high oak tree (Quercus robur) and hazel (Corylus avellana) density showed the strongest match between remote-sensed vegetation phenology and reproductive phenology in both species. Marked within-population variation in the extent to which phenology of different trophic levels match suggests that more attention should be given to small-scale processes when exploring the causes and consequences of phenological matching. We discuss how use of remotely sensed data to study within-population variation

From Caprio's lilacs to the USA National Phenology Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2012-01-01

Continental-scale monitoring is vital for understanding and adapting to temporal changes in seasonal climate and associated phenological responses. The success of monitoring programs will depend on recruiting, retaining, and managing members of the public to routinely collect phenological observations according to standardized protocols. Here, we trace the development of infrastructure for phenological monitoring in the US, culminating in the USA National Phenology Network, a program that engages scientists and volunteers.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A.; Pakeman, Robin J.; Young, Mark R.

2018-03-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network.

PubMed

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A; Pakeman, Robin J; Young, Mark R

2018-06-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Phenological changes of the most commonly sampled ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) species in the UK environmental change network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozsgai, Gabor; Baird, John; Littlewood, Nick A.; Pakeman, Robin J.; Young, Mark R.

2018-06-01

Despite the important roles ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) play in ecosystems, the highly valued ecosystem services they provide, and ample descriptive documentation of their phenology, the relative impact of various environmental factors on carabid phenology is not well studied. Using the long-term pitfall trap capture data from 12 terrestrial Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites from the UK, we examined how changing climate influenced the phenology of common carabids, and the role particular climate components had on phenological parameters. Of the 28 species included in the analyses, 19 showed earlier start of their activity. This advance was particularly pronounced in the spring, supporting the view that early phenophases have a greater tendency to change and these changes are more directly controlled by temperature than later ones. Autumn activity extended only a few cases, suggesting a photoperiod-driven start of hibernation. No association was found between life-history traits and the ability of species to change their phenology. Air temperatures between April and June were the most important factors determining the start of activity of each species, whilst late season precipitation hastened the cessation of activity. The balance between the advantages and disadvantages of changing phenology on various levels is likely to depend on the species and even on local environmental criteria. The substantially changing phenology of Carabidae may influence their function in ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.

Phenology of Spondias tuberosa Arruda (Anacardiaceae) under different landscape management regimes and a proposal for a rapid phenological diagnosis using local knowledge

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Studies aimed at investigating the influence of habitat change on species phenology. Studies that investigate people's perceptions of the phenology of certain species still area few; yet this approach is important for effective decision-making for conservation. The aim of this study was to investigate the phenology of Spondias tuberosa Arruda (Anacardiaceae), a native species of economic and ecological importance in northeastern Brazil, in five landscape units (LUs) (Mountain, Mountain Base, Pasture, Cultivated Areas and Homegardens) of a Caatinga region in Altinho, Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil. These data could then be compared with local people's perceptions of the species’ phenophases. Method Collection of phenological data was carried out monthly from February 2007 to January 2009 and included activity, intensity and synchronization of reproductive and vegetative phenophases. Ethnobotanical data were gathered using a collaborative approach to access local people’s knowledge about the species’ phenological schedule. Results There were no significant differences in the intensity of phenophases among LUs, and there was a correspondence between people’s perception of phenophases and the phenological data collected. The data show that the different management practices for LUs did not influence the phenology of the species. Conclusion The main conclusion of this study is the use of traditional knowledge as interesting tool for rapid phenological diagnosis. However further studies need to be developed to test this tool in other environments and cultural contexts. PMID:23369197

Phenology Across the LTER Network: Initial Findings, Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, G. M.

2007-12-01

Phenology is, in the words of Aldo Leopold, a "horizontal science" that cuts across and binds together multiple biological disciplines. It is a far-reaching but poorly understood aspect of the environmental sciences. Phenological research has been a component of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network at several sites over the years. However, it has not received the attention or resources to bring it to the forefront as an effective theme for interdisciplinary and cross-site synthesis. With the recent establishment of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), it is appropriate to assess the status of phenological knowledge across the LTER Network. A workshop funded by the LTER Network Office took place at the Sevilleta Field Station during February 26 to March 2, 2007. From the workshop three main products emerged: (1) an inventory of LTER phenology datasets, (2) establishment of a website to facilitate information interchange, and (3) a white paper recommending next steps for the LTER Network to engage the USA-NPN. This poster relates the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including a summary of phenologically explicit and phenologically implicit LTER datasets and illustrations of how the climatic envelopes described by simple weather variables can provide context for phenological comparisons within and across sites.

Refined shape model fitting methods for detecting various types of phenological information on major U.S. crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakamoto, Toshihiro

2018-04-01

Crop phenological information is a critical variable in evaluating the influence of environmental stress on the final crop yield in spatio-temporal dimensions. Although the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Cover Dynamics product (MCD12Q2) is widely used in place of crop phenological information, the definitions of MCD12Q2-derived phenological events (e.g. green-up date, dormancy date) were not completely consistent with those of crop development stages used in statistical surveys (e.g. emerged date, harvested date). It has been necessary to devise an alternative method focused on detecting continental-scale crop developmental stages using a different approach. Therefore, this study aimed to refine the Shape Model Fitting (SMF) method to improve its applicability to multiple major U.S. crops. The newly-refined SMF methods could estimate the timing of 36 crop-development stages of major U.S. crops, including corn, soybeans, winter wheat, spring wheat, barley, sorghum, rice, and cotton. The newly-developed calibration process did not require any long-term field observation data, and could calibrate crop-specific phenological parameters, which were used as coefficients in estimated equation, by using only freely accessible public data. The calibration of phenological parameters was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the national common phenological parameters, referred to as X0[base], were calibrated by using the statistical data of 2008. The SMF method coupled using X0[base] was named the rSMF[base] method. The second step was a further calibration to gain regionally-adjusted phenological parameters for each state, referred to as X0[local], by using additional statistical data of 2015 and 2016. The rSMF method using the X0[local] was named the rSMF[local] method. This second calibration process improved the estimation accuracy for all tested crops. When applying the rSMF[base] method to the validation data set (2009-2014), the root

Seasonality of weather and tree phenology in a tropical evergreen mountain rain forest.

PubMed

Bendix, J; Homeier, J; Cueva, E Ortiz; Emck, P; Breckle, S-W; Richter, M; Beck, E

2006-07-01

Flowering and fruiting as phenological events of 12 tree species in an evergreen tropical mountain rain forest in southern Ecuador were examined over a period of 3-4 years. Leaf shedding of two species was observed for 12 months. Parallel to the phenological recordings, meteorological parameters were monitored in detail and related to the flowering and fruiting activity of the trees. In spite of the perhumid climate of that area, a high degree of intra- and inter-specific synchronisation of phenological traits was apparent. With the exception of one species that flowered more or less continuously, two groups of trees could be observed, one of which flowered during the less humid months (September to October) while the second group started to initiate flowers towards the end of that phase and flowered during the heavy rains (April to July). As reflected by correlation coefficients, the all-time series of meteorological parameters showed a distinct seasonality of 8-12 months, apparently following the quasi-periodic oscillation of precipitation and related cloudiness. As revealed by power spectrum analysis and Markov persistence, rainfall and minimum temperature appear to be the only parameters with a periodicity free of long-term variations. The phenological events of most of the plant species showed a similar periodicity of 8-12 months, which followed the annual oscillation of relatively less and more humid periods and thus was in phase or in counter-phase with the oscillations of the meteorological parameters. Periods of unusual cold or dryness, presumably resulting from underlying longer-term trends or oscillations (such as ENSO), affected the homogeneity of quasi-12-month flowering events, fruit maturation and also the production of germinable seeds. Some species show underlying quasi-2-year-oscillations, for example that synchronise with the development of air temperature; others reveal an underlying decrease or increase in flowering activity over the

Estimation of ice activation parameters within a particle tracking Lagrangian cloud model using the ensemble Kalman filter to match ISCDAC golden case observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reisner, J. M.; Dubey, M. K.

2010-12-01

To both quantify and reduce uncertainty in ice activation parameterizations for stratus clouds occurring in the temperature range between -5 to -10 C ensemble simulations of an ISDAC golden case have been conducted. To formulate the ensemble, three parameters found within an ice activation model have been sampled using a Latin hypercube technique over a parameter range that induces large variability in both number and mass of ice. The ice activation model is contained within a Lagrangian cloud model that simulates particle number as a function of radius for cloud ice, snow, graupel, cloud, and rain particles. A unique aspect of this model is that it produces very low levels of numerical diffusion that enable the model to accurately resolve the sharp cloud edges associated with the ISDAC stratus deck. Another important aspect of the model is that near the cloud edges the number of particles can be significantly increased to reduce sampling errors and accurately resolve physical processes such as collision-coalescence that occur in this region. Thus, given these relatively low numerical errors, as compared to traditional bin models, the sensitivity of a stratus deck to changes in parameters found within the activation model can be examined without fear of numerical contamination. Likewise, once the ensemble has been completed, ISDAC observations can be incorporated into a Kalman filter to optimally estimate the ice activation parameters and reduce overall model uncertainty. Hence, this work will highlight the ability of an ensemble Kalman filter system coupled to a highly accurate numerical model to estimate important parameters found within microphysical parameterizations containing high uncertainty.

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brook, Rodney W.; Leafloor, James O.; Douglas, David C.; Abraham, Kenneth F.

2015-01-01

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Determination of CME 3D parameters based on a new full ice-cream cone model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, Hyeonock; Moon, Yong-Jae

2017-08-01

In space weather forecast, it is important to determine three-dimensional properties of CMEs. Using 29 limb CMEs, we examine which cone type is close to a CME three-dimensional structure. We find that most CMEs have near full ice-cream cone structure which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We develop a full ice-cream cone model based on a new methodology that the full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. By applying this model to 12 SOHO/LASCO halo CMEs, we find that 3D parameters from our method are similar to those from other stereoscopic methods (i.e., a triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model). In addition, we derive CME mean density (ρmean=Mtotal/Vcone) based on the full ice-cream cone structure. For several limb events, we determine CME mass by applying the Solarsoft procedure (e.g., cme_mass.pro) to SOHO/LASCO C3 images. CME volumes are estimated from the full ice-cream cone structure. From the power-law relationship between CME mean density and its height, we estimate CME mean densities at 20 solar radii (Rs). We will compare the CME densities at 20 Rs with their corresponding ICME densities.

The Phenological Network of Catalonia: an historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busto, Montserrat; Cunillera, Jordi; de Yzaguirre, Xavier

2017-04-01

The Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) began systematic phenological observation in 1932. Forty-four observers registered the phenophases of 45 plant species, the first or last sighting of six bird species and the first sighting of one species of butterfly. The study First results of phenological observation in Catalonia was published in 1936, showing the different behaviour of the vegetal species and birds according to geographical location. The SMC worked against the military fascist uprising during the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939). Therefore, once the war was finished, the organisation was quickly closed by the Franco dictatorship and the National Meteorological Service became the official institution in Spain. This organization created the Spanish Phenological Network in 1943 following similar standards to the former Catalan network. The reintroduction of democracy and the return of the Catalan self-government structures (1977) allowed the re-foundation of the SMC in 1996. The Climatology Department needed phenological data to complement the study of climatic indicators and realised the fragile situation of phenology observations in Catalonia, with very few operational series. Following a preliminary analysis of the different systems of recording and saving data, the Phenological network of Catalonia (Fenocat) was re-established in 2013. Fenocat is an active partner of the Pan European Phenology Database (PEP725) that uses BBCH-scale coding and the USA National Phenology Network observation system. It is an example of citizen science. As at December 2016, Fenocat had recorded more than 450,000 data. The extension of summer climatic conditions in the Western Mediterranean region has resulted in repetition of phenopases in the same year, such as the second flowering of the holm oak (Quercus ilex), almond tree (Prunus dulcis) and sweet cherry tree (Prunus avium), or the delay in the departure data of the swallow (Hirundo rustica) and hoopoe (Upupa epops

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

PubMed

Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E

2014-10-22

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Temporal coherence of phenological and climatic rhythmicity in Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaoqiu; Zhang, Weiqi; Ren, Shilong; Lang, Weiguang; Liang, Boyi; Liu, Guohua

2017-10-01

Using woody plant phenological data in the Beijing Botanical Garden from 1979 to 2013, we revealed three levels of phenology rhythms and examined their coherence with temperature rhythms. First, the sequential and correlative rhythm shows that occurrence dates of various phenological events obey a certain time sequence within a year and synchronously advance or postpone among years. The positive correlation between spring phenophase dates is much stronger than that between autumn phenophase dates and attenuates as the time interval between two spring phenophases increases. This phenological rhythm can be explained by positive correlation between above 0 °C mean temperatures corresponding to different phenophase dates. Second, the circannual rhythm indicates that recurrence interval of a phenophase in the same species in two adjacent years is about 365 days, which can be explained by the 365-day recurrence interval in the first and last dates of threshold temperatures. Moreover, an earlier phenophase date in the current year may lead to a later phenophase date in the next year through extending recurrence interval. Thus, the plant phenology sequential and correlative rhythm and circannual rhythm are interacted, which mirrors the interaction between seasonal variation and annual periodicity of temperature. Finally, the multi-year rhythm implies that phenophase dates display quasi-periodicity more than 1 year. The same 12-year periodicity in phenophase and threshold temperature dates confirmed temperature controls of the phenology multi-year rhythm. Our findings provide new perspectives for examining phenological response to climate change and developing comprehensive phenology models considering temporal coherence of phenological and climatic rhythmicity.

Scattering Properties of Needle-Like and plate-like Ice Spheroids with Moderate Size Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakharova, Nadia T.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

We use the current advanced version of the T-matrix method to compute the optical cross sections, the asymmetry parameter of the phase function, and the scattering matrix elements of ice spheroids with aspect ratios up to 20 and surface-equivalent-sphere size parameters up to 12. We demonstrate that plate-like and needle-like particles with moderate size parameters possess unique scattering properties: their asymmetry parameters and phase functions are similar to those of surface-equivalent spheres, whereas all other elements of the scattering matrix are typical of particles much smaller than the wavelength (Rayleigh scatterers). This result may have important implications for optical particle sizing and remote sensing of the terrestrial and planetary atmospheres.

Physiology-phenology interactions in a productive semi-arid pine forest.

PubMed

Maseyk, Kadmiel S; Lin, Tongbao; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grünzweig, José M; Schwartz, Amnon; Yakir, Dan

2008-01-01

This study explored possible advantages conferred by the phase shift between leaf phenology and photosynthesis seasonality in a semi-arid Pinus halepensis forest system, not seen in temperate sites. Leaf-scale measurements of gas exchange, nitrogen and phenology were used on daily, seasonal and annual time-scales. Peak photosynthesis was in late winter, when high soil moisture, mild temperatures and low leaf vapour pressure deficit (D(L)) allowed high rates associated with high water- and nitrogen-use efficiencies. Self-sustained new needle growth through the dry and hot summer maximized photosynthesis in the following wet season, without straining carbon storage. Low rates of water loss were associated with increasing sensitivity of stomatal conductance (g(s)) to soil moisture below a relative extractable water (REW) of 0.4, and decreased g(s )sensitivity to D(L) below REW of approx. 0.2. This response was captured by the modified Ball-Berry (Leuning) model. While most physiological parameters and responses measured were typical of temperate pines, the photosynthesis-phenological phasing contributed to high productivity under warm-dry conditions. This contrasts with reported effects of short-term periodical droughts and could lead to different predictions of the effect of warming and drying climate on pine forest productivity.

Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

PubMed

Cherry, Seth G; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Lunn, Nicholas J

2013-07-01

Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Phenological observations since the Linnean time in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubin, E.; Poikolainen, J.; Karhu, J.; Terhivuo, J.

2012-04-01

The Finnish National Phenological Network was established in 1996 by the Finnish Forest Research Institute in collaboration with other research institutes and universities. The Network investigates the timing of phenological phases of forest plants in relation to climate factors, develops real time information to the internet and studies digital techniques as tools for monitoring. Monitoring is done troughout the growth period, focusing on nine forest tree species and two dwarf shrubs. The results can be followed in real time at: http://www.metla.fi/metinfo/fenologia/index-en.htm. The results indicate that spring phenophases usually advanced with respect to climatic conditions, but there were also differences between the years. The research period started in 1995 is relatively short and the results indicates that long-term monitoring is needed in order to detect true trends in the impacts of climate on plant phenology. The Finnish National Phenological Network has therefore collaborated with the Finnish Museum of Natural History and analysed historical phenological data based on voluntary monitoring. The oldest phenological observation series based on voluntary observers started in Finland in 1752. The long-term data shows an advancement in the timing of bud burst by five days per 100 years in Prunus padus. The onset of flowering in the rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) has become correspondingly earlier in Finland at the rate of three days per century. In the conference the focus is on a historical long-term dataset as well as on the newer Finnish National Phenological Network established for monitoring annual phenological events taking place in the same individual plants. The latest results of the network will be updated with the earlier presented historical data. Phenological monitoring is nowadays more important than ever especially in boreal regions, where spring temperatures are elevated. Compilation and documentation of observations on plant phenophases play a key

Can Seismic Observations of Bed Conditions on Ice Streams Help Constrain Parameters in Ice Flow Models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyrke-Smith, Teresa M.; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Farrell, Patrick E.

2017-11-01

We investigate correlations between seismically derived estimates of basal acoustic impedance and basal slipperiness values obtained from a surface-to-bed inversion using a Stokes ice flow model. Using high-resolution measurements along several seismic profiles on Pine Island Glacier (PIG), we find no significant correlation at kilometer scale between acoustic impedance and either retrieved basal slipperiness or basal drag. However, there is a stronger correlation when comparing average values along the individual profiles. We hypothesize that the correlation appears at the length scales over which basal variations are important to large-scale ice sheet flow. Although the seismic technique is sensitive to the material properties of the bed, at present there is no clear way of incorporating high-resolution seismic measurements of bed properties on ice streams into ice flow models. We conclude that more theoretical work needs to be done before constraints on mechanical conditions at the ice-bed interface from acoustic impedance measurements can be of direct use to ice sheet models.

Response of Alpine Grassland Vegetation Phenology to Snow Accumulation and Melt in Namco Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Cui, X.; Liang, T.

2018-04-01

Snow/ice accumulation and melt, as a vital part of hydrological processes, is close related with vegetation activities. Taking Namco basin for example, based on multisource remote sensing data and the ground observation data of temperature and precipitation, phenological information was extracted by S-G filtering and dynamic threshold method. Daily snow cover fraction was calculated with daily cloud-free snow cover maps. Evolution characteristics of grassland vegetation greening, growth length and daily snow cover fraction and their relationship were analyzed from 2001 to 2013. The results showed that most of grassland vegetation had advanced greening and prolong growth length trend in Namco basin. There were negative correlations between snow cover fraction and vegetation greening or growth length. The response of vegetation phenology to snow cover fraction is more sensitive than that to temperature in spring. Meanwhile, vegetation growth condition turned worse with advanced greening and prolong growth length. To a certain extent, our research reveals the relationship between grassland vegetation growth cycle and snow in alpine ecosystem. It has provided reference to research the response mechanism of alpine grassland ecosystem to climate changes.

Crop Phenology Detection Using High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Data Fused from SPOT5 and MODIS Products

PubMed Central

Zheng, Yang; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Miao; Zeng, Hongwei

2016-01-01

Timely and efficient monitoring of crop phenology at a high spatial resolution are crucial for the precise and effective management of agriculture. Recently, satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs), such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), have been widely used for the phenology detection of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, a framework is proposed to detect crop phenology using high spatio-temporal resolution data fused from Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Tarre5 (SPOT5) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. The framework consists of a data fusion method to produce a synthetic NDVI dataset at SPOT5’s spatial resolution and at MODIS’s temporal resolution and a phenology extraction algorithm based on NDVI time-series analysis. The feasibility of our phenology detection approach was evaluated at the county scale in Shandong Province, China. The results show that (1) the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) algorithm can accurately blend SPOT5 and MODIS NDVI, with an R2 of greater than 0.69 and an root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.11 between the predicted and referenced data; and that (2) the estimated phenology parameters, such as the start and end of season (SOS and EOS), were closely correlated with the field-observed data with an R2 of the SOS ranging from 0.68 to 0.86 and with an R2 of the EOS ranging from 0.72 to 0.79. Our research provides a reliable approach for crop phenology mapping in areas with high fragmented farmland, which is meaningful for the implementation of precision agriculture. PMID:27973404

Crop Phenology Detection Using High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Data Fused from SPOT5 and MODIS Products.

PubMed

Zheng, Yang; Wu, Bingfang; Zhang, Miao; Zeng, Hongwei

2016-12-10

Timely and efficient monitoring of crop phenology at a high spatial resolution are crucial for the precise and effective management of agriculture. Recently, satellite-derived vegetation indices (VIs), such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), have been widely used for the phenology detection of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, a framework is proposed to detect crop phenology using high spatio-temporal resolution data fused from Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Tarre5 (SPOT5) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. The framework consists of a data fusion method to produce a synthetic NDVI dataset at SPOT5's spatial resolution and at MODIS's temporal resolution and a phenology extraction algorithm based on NDVI time-series analysis. The feasibility of our phenology detection approach was evaluated at the county scale in Shandong Province, China. The results show that (1) the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) algorithm can accurately blend SPOT5 and MODIS NDVI, with an R ² of greater than 0.69 and an root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.11 between the predicted and referenced data; and that (2) the estimated phenology parameters, such as the start and end of season (SOS and EOS), were closely correlated with the field-observed data with an R ² of the SOS ranging from 0.68 to 0.86 and with an R ² of the EOS ranging from 0.72 to 0.79. Our research provides a reliable approach for crop phenology mapping in areas with high fragmented farmland, which is meaningful for the implementation of precision agriculture.

A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

2018-03-01

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

Warming Contracts Flowering Phenology in an Alpine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabis, M. D.; Winkler, D. E.; Kueppers, L. M.

2015-12-01

In alpine ecosystems where temperature increases associated with anthropogenic climate change are likely to be amplified, the flowering phenology of plants may be particularly sensitive to changes in environmental signals. For example, earlier snowmelt and higher temperature have been found to be important factors driving plant emergence and onset of flowering. However, few studies have examined the interactive role of soil moisture in response to warming. Using infrared heating to actively warm plots crossed with manual watering over the growing season in a moist alpine meadow at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, our preliminary results indicate that community-level phenology (length of flowering time across all species) was contracted with heating but was unaffected by watering. At the species level, additional water extended the length of the flowering season by one week for almost half (43%) of species. Heating, which raised plant and surface soil temperatures (+1.5 C) advanced snowmelt by ~7.6 days days and reduced soil moisture by ~2%, advanced flowering phenology for 86% of species. The response of flowering phenology to combined heating and watering was predominantly a heating effect. However, watering did appear to mitigate advances in end of flowering for 22% of species. The length of flowering season, for some species, appears to be tied, in part, to moisture availability as alleviating ambient soil moisture stress delayed phenology in unheated plots. Therefore, we conclude that both temperature and moisture appear to be important factors driving flowering phenology in this alpine ecosystem. The relationship between flowering phenology and species- or community-level productivity is not well established, but heating advanced community peak productivity by 5.4 days, and also reduced peak productivity unless additional water was provided, indicating some consistency between drivers of productivity and drivers of flowering phenology.

On the uncertainty of phenological responses to climate change, and implications for a terrestrial biosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Sonnentag, O.; Keenan, T. F.; Cescatti, A.; O'Keefe, J.; Richardson, A. D.

2012-06-01

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval - CI: 2.4 days century-1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century-1 for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century-1 in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century-1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century-1 for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C-1 and 5.2 days °C-1 depending on model structure. We quantified the impact of

Prolonged Soil Frost Affects Hydraulics and Phenology of Apple Trees

PubMed Central

Beikircher, Barbara; Mittmann, Claudia; Mayr, Stefan

2016-01-01

Restoration of an adequate water supply in spring is a prerequisite for survival of angiosperm trees in temperate regions. Trees must re-establish access to soil water and recover xylem functionality. We thus hypothesized that prolonged soil frost impairs recovery and affects hydraulics and phenology of Malus domestica var. ‘Golden Delicious.’ To test this hypothesis, over two consecutive winters the soil around some trees was insulated to prolong soil frosting, From mid-winter to early summer, the level of native embolism, the water and starch contents of wood, bark and buds were quantified at regular intervals and findings correlated with various phenological parameters, xylogenesis and fine root growth. The findings confirm that prolonged soil frost affects tree hydraulics and phenology but the severity of the effect depends on the climatic conditions. In both study years, percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) decreased from about 70% at the end of winter to about 10% in May. Thereby, xylem refilling strongly coincided with a decrease of starch in wood and bark. Also treated trees were able to restore their hydraulic system by May but, in the warm spring of 2012, xylem refilling, the increases in water content and starch depolymerization were delayed. In contrast, in the cold spring of 2013 only small differences between control and treated trees were observed. Prolongation of soil frost also led to a delay in phenology, xylogenesis, and fine root growth. We conclude that reduced water uptake from frozen or cold soils impairs refilling and thus negatively impacts tree hydraulics and growth of apple trees in spring. Under unfavorable circumstances, this may cause severe winter damage or even dieback. PMID:27379146

Prolonged Soil Frost Affects Hydraulics and Phenology of Apple Trees.

PubMed

Beikircher, Barbara; Mittmann, Claudia; Mayr, Stefan

2016-01-01

Restoration of an adequate water supply in spring is a prerequisite for survival of angiosperm trees in temperate regions. Trees must re-establish access to soil water and recover xylem functionality. We thus hypothesized that prolonged soil frost impairs recovery and affects hydraulics and phenology of Malus domestica var. 'Golden Delicious.' To test this hypothesis, over two consecutive winters the soil around some trees was insulated to prolong soil frosting, From mid-winter to early summer, the level of native embolism, the water and starch contents of wood, bark and buds were quantified at regular intervals and findings correlated with various phenological parameters, xylogenesis and fine root growth. The findings confirm that prolonged soil frost affects tree hydraulics and phenology but the severity of the effect depends on the climatic conditions. In both study years, percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity (PLC) decreased from about 70% at the end of winter to about 10% in May. Thereby, xylem refilling strongly coincided with a decrease of starch in wood and bark. Also treated trees were able to restore their hydraulic system by May but, in the warm spring of 2012, xylem refilling, the increases in water content and starch depolymerization were delayed. In contrast, in the cold spring of 2013 only small differences between control and treated trees were observed. Prolongation of soil frost also led to a delay in phenology, xylogenesis, and fine root growth. We conclude that reduced water uptake from frozen or cold soils impairs refilling and thus negatively impacts tree hydraulics and growth of apple trees in spring. Under unfavorable circumstances, this may cause severe winter damage or even dieback.

Discriminating the Mediterranean Pinus spp. using the land surface phenology extracted from the whole MODIS NDVI time series and machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor; Aragones, David; Caparros-Santiago, Jose A.; Navarro-Cerrillo, Rafael M.

2017-10-01

Land surface phenology (LSP) can improve the characterisation of forest areas and their change processes. The aim of this work was: i) to characterise the temporal dynamics in Mediterranean Pinus forests, and ii) to evaluate the potential of LSP for species discrimination. The different experiments were based on 679 mono-specific plots for the 5 native species on the Iberian Peninsula: P. sylvestris, P. pinea, P. halepensis, P. nigra and P. pinaster. The entire MODIS NDVI time series (2000-2016) of the MOD13Q1 product was used to characterise phenology. The following phenological parameters were extracted: the start, end and median days of the season, and the length of the season in days, as well as the base value, maximum value, amplitude and integrated value. Multi-temporal metrics were calculated to synthesise the inter-annual variability of the phenological parameters. The species were discriminated by the application of Random Forest (RF) classifiers from different subsets of variables: model 1) NDVI-smoothed time series, model 2) multi-temporal metrics of the phenological parameters, and model 3) multi-temporal metrics and the auxiliary physical variables (altitude, slope, aspect and distance to the coastline). Model 3 was the best, with an overall accuracy of 82%, a kappa coefficient of 0.77 and whose most important variables were: elevation, coast distance, and the end and start days of the growing season. The species that presented the largest errors was P. nigra, (kappa= 0.45), having locations with a similar behaviour to P. sylvestris or P. pinaster.

Phenology of Pacific Northwest tree species

Treesearch

Connie Harrington; Kevin Ford; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events. For foresters, the most commonly observed phenological events are budburst, flowering, and leaf fall, but other harder to observe events, such as diameter-growth initiation, are also important. Most events that occur in the spring are influenced by past exposure to cool (chilling) temperatures and...

The Lunar IceCube Mission Challenge: Attaining Science Orbit Parameters from a Constrained Approach Trajectory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folta, David C.; Bosanac, Natasha; Cox, Andrew; Howell, Kathleen C.

2017-01-01

The challenges of targeting specific lunar science orbit parameters from a concomitant Sun-EarthMoon system trajectory are examined. While the concept of ballistic lunar capture is well-studied, achieving and controlling the time evolution of the orbital elements to satisfy mission constraints is especially problematic when the spacecraft is equipped with a low-thrust propulsion system. Satisfying these requirements on the lunar approach and capture segments is critical to the success of the Lunar IceCube mission, a 6U CubeSat that will prospect for water in solid (ice), liquid, and vapor forms and other lunar volatiles from a low-periapsis, highly inclined elliptical lunar orbit.

The Lunar IceCube Mission Challenge: Attaining Science Orbit Parameters from a Constrained Approach Trajectory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folta, David C.; Bosanac, Natasha; Cox, Andrew; Howell, Kathleen C.

2017-01-01

The challenges of targeting specific lunar science orbit parameters from a concomitant Sun-Earth/Moon system trajectory are examined. While the concept of ballistic lunar capture is well-studied, achieving and controlling the time evolution of the orbital elements to satisfy mission constraints is especially problematic when the spacecraft is equipped with a low-thrust propulsion system. Satisfying these requirements on the lunar approach and capture segments is critical to the success of the Lunar IceCube mission, a 6U CubeSat that will prospect for water in solid (ice), liquid, and vapor forms and other lunar volatiles from a low-periapsis, highly inclined elliptical lunar orbit.

Compression experiments on artificial, alpine and marine ice: implications for ice-shelf/continental interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dierckx, Marie; Goossens, Thomas; Samyn, Denis; Tison, Jean-Louis

2010-05-01

Antarctic ice shelves are important components of continental ice dynamics, in that they control grounded ice flow towards the ocean. As such, Antarctic ice shelves are a key parameter to the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the context of global change. Marine ice, formed by sea water accretion beneath some ice shelves, displays distinct physical (grain textures, bubble content, ...) and chemical (salinity, isotopic composition, ...) characteristics as compared to glacier ice and sea ice. The aim is to refine Glen's flow relation (generally used for ice behaviour in deformation) under various parameters (temperature, salinity, debris, grain size ...) to improve deformation laws used in dynamic ice shelf models, which would then give more accurate and / or realistic predictions on ice shelf stability. To better understand the mechanical properties of natural ice, deformation experiments were performed on ice samples in laboratory, using a pneumatic compression device. To do so, we developed a custom built compression rig operated by pneumatic drives. It has been designed for performing uniaxial compression tests at constant load and under unconfined conditions. The operating pressure ranges from about 0.5 to 10 Bars. This allows modifying the experimental conditions to match the conditions found at the grounding zone (in the 1 Bar range). To maintain the ice at low temperature, the samples are immersed in a Silicone oil bath connected to an external refrigeration system. During the experiments, the vertical displacement of the piston and the applied force is measured by sensors which are connected to a digital acquisition system. We started our experiments with artificial ice and went on with continental ice samples from glaciers in the Alps. The first results allowed us to acquire realistic mechanical data for natural ice. Ice viscosity was calculated for different types of artificial ice, using Glen's flow law, and showed the importance of impurities

Overlaps among phenological phases in flood plain forest ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartošová, Lenka; Bauer, Zdeněk; Trnka, Miroslav; Možný, Martin; Štěpánek, Petr; Žalud, Zdeněk

2015-04-01

There is a growing concern that climate change has significant impacts on species phenology, seasonal population dynamics, and thus interaction (a)synchrony between species. Species that have historically undergone life history events on the same seasonal calendar may lose synchrony and therefore lose the ability to interact as they have in the past. In view of the match/mismatch hypothesis, the different extents or directions of the phenological shifts among interacting species may have significant implications for community structure and dynamics. That's why our principal goal of the study is to determine the phenological responses within the ecosystem of flood plain forest and analyzed the phenological overlapping among each phenological periods of given species. The phenological observations were done at flood-plain forest experimental site during the period 1961-2012. The whole ecosystem in this study create 17 species (15 plants and 2 bird species) and each species is composed of 2 phenological phases. Phenological periods of all species of ecosystem overlap each other and 43 of these overlapping were chosen and the length, trend and correlation with temperature were elaborated. The analysis of phenophases overlapping of chosen species showed that the length of overlay is getting significantly shorter in 1 case. On the other hand the situation when the length of overlaps is getting significantly longer arose in 4 cases. Remaining overlaps (38) of all phenological periods among various species is getting shorter or longer but with no significance or have not changed anyhow. This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific team focused on drought" No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248. and of projects no. LD13030 supporting participation of the Czech Republic in the COST action ES1106.

Linking belowground and aboveground phenology in two boreal forests in Northeast China.

PubMed

Du, Enzai; Fang, Jingyun

2014-11-01

The functional equilibrium between roots and shoots suggests an intrinsic linkage between belowground and aboveground phenology. However, much less understanding of belowground phenology hinders integrating belowground and aboveground phenology. We measured root respiration (Ra) as a surrogate for root phenology and integrated it with observed leaf phenology and radial growth in a birch (Betula platyphylla)-aspen (Populus davidiana) forest and an adjacent larch (Larix gmelinii) forest in Northeast China. A log-normal model successfully described the seasonal variations of Ra and indicated the initiation, termination and peak date of root phenology. Both root phenology and leaf phenology were highly specific, with a later onset, earlier termination, and shorter period of growing season for the pioneer tree species (birch and aspen) than the dominant tree species (larch). Root phenology showed later initiation, later peak and later termination dates than leaf phenology. An asynchronous correlation of Ra and radial growth was identified with a time lag of approximately 1 month, indicating aprioritization of shoot growth. Furthermore, we found that Ra was strongly correlated with soil temperature and air temperature, while radial growth was only significantly correlated with air temperature, implying a down-regulating effect of temperature. Our results indicate different phenologies between pioneer and dominant species and support a down-regulation hypothesis of plant phenology which can be helpful in understanding forest dynamics in the context of climate change.

Atmospheric circulation patterns and phenological anomalies of grapevine in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cola, Gabriele; Alilla, Roberta; Dal Monte, Giovanni; Epifani, Chiara; Mariani, Luigi; Parisi, Simone Gabriele

2014-05-01

Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) is a fundamental crop for Italian agriculture as testified by the first place of Italy in the world producers ranking. This justify the importance of quantitative analyses referred to this crucial crop and aimed to quantify meteorological resources and limitations to development and production. Phenological rhythms of grapevine are strongly affected by surface fields of air temperature which in their turn are affected by synoptic circulation. This evidence highlights the importance of an approach based on dynamic climatology in order to detect and explain phenological anomalies that can have relevant effects on quantity and quality of grapevine production. In this context, this research is aimed to study the existing relation among the 850 hPa circulation patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area from NOAA Ncep dataset and grapevine phenological fields for Italy over the period 2006-2013, highlighting the main phenological anomalies and analyzing synoptic determinants. This work is based on phenological fields with a standard pixel of 2 km routinely produced from 2006 by the Iphen project (Italian Phenological network) on the base of phenological observations spatialized by means of a specific algorithm based on cumulated thermal resources expressed as Normal Heat Hours (NHH). Anomalies have been evaluated with reference to phenological normal fields defined for the Italian area on the base of phenological observations and Iphen model. Results show that relevant phenological anomalies observed over the reference period are primarily associated with long lasting blocking systems driving cold air masses (Arctic or Polar-Continental) or hot ones (Sub-Tropical) towards the Italian area. Specific cases are presented for some years like 2007 and 2011.

Monitoring Spatial Patterns of Vegetation Phenology in AN Australian Tropical Transect Using Modis Evi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Huete, A.; Yu, Q.; Davies, K.; Coupe, N. R.

2012-07-01

Phenology is receiving increasing interest in the area of climate change and vegetation adaptation to climate. The phenology of a landscape can be used as a key parameter in land surface models and dynamic global vegetation models to more accurately simulate carbon, water and energy exchanges between land cover and atmosphere. However, the characterisation of phenology is lacking in tropical savannas which cover more than 30% of global land area, and are highly vulnerable to climate change. The objective of this study is to investigate the spatial pattern of vegetation phenology along the Northern Australia Tropical Transect (NATT) where the major biomes are wet and dry tropical savannas. For this analysis we used more than 11 years Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) product from 2000 to 2011. Eight phenological metrics were derived: Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), Length of Season (LOS), Maximum EVI (MaxG), Minimum EVI (MinG), annual amplitude (AMP), large integral (LIG), and small integral (SIG) were generated for each year and each pixel. Our results showed there are significant spatial patterns and considerable interannual variations of vegetation phenology along the NATT study area. Generally speaking, vegetation growing season started and ended earlier in the north, and started and ended later in the south, resulting in a southward decrease of growing season length (LOS). Vegetation productivity, which was represented by annual integral EVI (LIG), showed a significant descending trend from the northern part of NATT to the southern part. Segmented regression analysis showed that there exists a distinguishable breakpoint along the latitudinal gradient, at least in terms of annual minimum EVI (EVI), which is located between 18.84°S to 20.04°S.

Examining spring phenology of forest understory using digital photography

Treesearch

Liang Liang; Mark D. Schwartz; Songlin Fei

2011-01-01

Phenology is an important indicator of forest health in relation to energy/nutrient cycles and species interactions. Accurate characterization of forest understory phenology is a crucial part of forest phenology observation. In this study, ground plots set up in a temperate mixed forest in Wisconsin were observed with a visible-light digital camera during spring 2007....

Dynamic Pulse-Driven Flowering Phenology in a Semiarid Shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; Papuga, S. A.; Kipnis, E. L.; Nelson, K.

2014-12-01

Elevated springtime temperature has been convincingly linked to an increasingly earlier onset of phenological activity. Studies highlighting this phenomenon have generally been conducted in ecosystems where energy is the primary limiting factor. Importantly, phenological studies in semiarid ecosystems where water is the major limiting factor are rare. In semiarid ecosystems, the timing of phenological activity is also highly sensitive to discrete moisture pulses from infrequent precipitation events. The objective of this study is to identify the triggers of flowering phenology in a semiarid creosotebush-dominated ecosystem. Creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) is a repeat-flowering evergreen shrub that is the dominant species in three of the North American deserts. We present results from six years of daily meteorological and phenological data collected within the Santa Rita Experimental Range in southern Arizona. Our site is equipped with an eddy covariance tower providing estimates of water and carbon fluxes and associated meteorological variables including precipitation and soil moisture at multiple depths. Additionally, three digital cameras distributed within the footprint of the eddy provide daily images of phenological activity. Our results highlight substantial interannual variability in flowering phenology, both in spring and summer flowering. We show that spring flowering activity tends to be associated with energy triggers (e.g. temperature, growing degree days), whereas summer flowering activity tends to be associated with moisture triggers (e.g. large precipitation events, deep soil moisture). Our study suggests that changes in frequency and duration of precipitation events will impact timing of phenological activity resulting in important consequences for vegetation dynamics and pollinator behavior.

A sensitivity analysis for a thermomechanical model of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baratelli, F.; Castellani, G.; Vassena, C.; Giudici, M.

2012-04-01

The outcomes of an ice sheet model depend on a number of parameters and physical quantities which are often estimated with large uncertainty, because of lack of sufficient experimental measurements in such remote environments. Therefore, the efforts to improve the accuracy of the predictions of ice sheet models by including more physical processes and interactions with atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere can be affected by the inaccuracy of the fundamental input data. A sensitivity analysis can help to understand which are the input data that most affect the different predictions of the model. In this context, a finite difference thermomechanical ice sheet model based on the Shallow-Ice Approximation (SIA) and on the Shallow-Shelf Approximation (SSA) has been developed and applied for the simulation of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves for the last 200 000 years. The sensitivity analysis of the model outcomes (e.g., the volume of the ice sheet and of the ice shelves, the basal melt rate of the ice sheet, the mean velocity of the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, the wet area at the base of the ice sheet) with respect to the model parameters (e.g., the basal sliding coefficient, the geothermal heat flux, the present-day surface accumulation and temperature, the mean ice shelves viscosity, the melt rate at the base of the ice shelves) has been performed by computing three synthetic numerical indices: two local sensitivity indices and a global sensitivity index. Local sensitivity indices imply a linearization of the model and neglect both non-linear and joint effects of the parameters. The global variance-based sensitivity index, instead, takes into account the complete variability of the input parameters but is usually conducted with a Monte Carlo approach which is computationally very demanding for non-linear complex models. Therefore, the global sensitivity index has been computed using a development of the model outputs in a

A new improved database to support spanish phenological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Martínez-Núñez, Lourdes; Botey-Fullat, Roser; Gallego-Abaroa, Teresa; De Cara-García, Juan Antonio; Rodríguez-Ballesteros, César

2017-04-01

Since the last 30 years, phenology has regained scientific interest as the most reported biological indicator of anthropogenic climate change. AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) has long records in the field of phenological observations, since the 1940s. However, there is a large variety of paper records which are necessary to digitalize. On the other hand, it had been necessary to adapt our methods to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines (BBCH code, data documentation- metadata…) and to standardize phenological stages and species in order to provide information to PEP725 (Pan European Phenology Database). Consequently, AEMET is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database to support research and scientific studies about climate, their variability and influence on natural ecosystems, agriculture, etc. This paper presents the steps that are being carried out in order to achieve this goal.

Mixed ice accretion on aircraft wings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjua, Zaid A.; Turnbull, Barbara; Hibberd, Stephen; Choi, Kwing-So

2018-02-01

Ice accretion is a problematic natural phenomenon that affects a wide range of engineering applications including power cables, radio masts, and wind turbines. Accretion on aircraft wings occurs when supercooled water droplets freeze instantaneously on impact to form rime ice or runback as water along the wing to form glaze ice. Most models to date have ignored the accretion of mixed ice, which is a combination of rime and glaze. A parameter we term the "freezing fraction" is defined as the fraction of a supercooled droplet that freezes on impact with the top surface of the accretion ice to explore the concept of mixed ice accretion. Additionally we consider different "packing densities" of rime ice, mimicking the different bulk rime densities observed in nature. Ice accretion is considered in four stages: rime, primary mixed, secondary mixed, and glaze ice. Predictions match with existing models and experimental data in the limiting rime and glaze cases. The mixed ice formulation however provides additional insight into the composition of the overall ice structure, which ultimately influences adhesion and ice thickness, and shows that for similar atmospheric parameter ranges, this simple mixed ice description leads to very different accretion rates. A simple one-dimensional energy balance was solved to show how this freezing fraction parameter increases with decrease in atmospheric temperature, with lower freezing fraction promoting glaze ice accretion.

Variability in the mechanisms controlling Southern Ocean phytoplankton bloom phenology in an ocean model and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohr, Tyler; Long, Matthew C.; Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Lindsay, Keith; Doney, Scott C.

2017-05-01

A coupled global numerical simulation (conducted with the Community Earth System Model) is used in conjunction with satellite remote sensing observations to examine the role of top-down (grazing pressure) and bottom-up (light, nutrients) controls on marine phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Phytoplankton seasonal phenology is evaluated in the context of the recently proposed "disturbance-recovery" hypothesis relative to more traditional, exclusively "bottom-up" frameworks. All blooms occur when phytoplankton division rates exceed loss rates to permit sustained net population growth; however, the nature of this decoupling period varies regionally in Community Earth System Model. Regional case studies illustrate how unique pathways allow blooms to emerge despite very poor division rates or very strong grazing rates. In the Subantarctic, southeast Pacific small spring blooms initiate early cooccurring with deep mixing and low division rates, consistent with the disturbance-recovery hypothesis. Similar systematics are present in the Subantarctic, southwest Atlantic during the spring but are eclipsed by a subsequent, larger summer bloom that is coincident with shallow mixing and the annual maximum in division rates, consistent with a bottom-up, light limited framework. In the model simulation, increased iron stress prevents a similar summer bloom in the southeast Pacific. In the simulated Antarctic zone (70°S-65°S) seasonal sea ice acts as a dominant phytoplankton-zooplankton decoupling agent, triggering a delayed but substantial bloom as ice recedes. Satellite ocean color remote sensing and ocean physical reanalysis products do not precisely match model-predicted phenology, but observed patterns do indicate regional variability in mechanism across the Atlantic and Pacific.

Phenology from Landsat when data is scarce: Using MODIS and Dynamic Time-Warping to combine multi-year Landsat imagery to derive annual phenology curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumann, Matthias; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Richardson, Andrew D.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2017-02-01

Green-leaf phenology describes the development of vegetation throughout a growing season and greatly affects the interaction between climate and the biosphere. Remote sensing is a valuable tool to characterize phenology over large areas but doing at fine- to medium resolution (e.g., with Landsat data) is difficult because of low numbers of cloud-free images in a single year. One way to overcome data availability limitations is to merge multi-year imagery into one time series, but this requires accounting for phenological differences among years. Here we present a new approach that employed a time series of a MODIS vegetation index data to quantify interannual differences in phenology, and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to re-align multi-year Landsat images to a common phenology that eliminates year-to-year phenological differences. This allowed us to estimate annual phenology curves from Landsat between 2002 and 2012 from which we extracted key phenological dates in a Monte-Carlo simulation design, including green-up (GU), start-of-season (SoS), maturity (Mat), senescence (Sen), end-of-season (EoS) and dormancy (Dorm). We tested our approach in eight locations across the United States that represented forests of different types and without signs of recent forest disturbance. We compared Landsat-based phenological transition dates to those derived from MODIS and ground-based camera data from the PhenoCam-network. The Landsat and MODIS comparison showed strong agreement. Dates of green-up, start-of-season and maturity were highly correlated (r 0.86-0.95), as were senescence and end-of-season dates (r > 0.85) and dormancy (r > 0.75). Agreement between the Landsat and PhenoCam was generally lower, but correlation coefficients still exceeded 0.8 for all dates. In addition, because of the high data density in the new Landsat time series, the confidence intervals of the estimated keydates were substantially lower than in case of MODIS and PhenoCam. Our study thus suggests

The effects of short- and long-term air pollutants on plant phenology and leaf characteristics.

PubMed

Jochner, Susanne; Markevych, Iana; Beck, Isabelle; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Heinrich, Joachim; Menzel, Annette

2015-11-01

Pollution adversely affects vegetation; however, its impact on phenology and leaf morphology is not satisfactorily understood yet. We analyzed associations between pollutants and phenological data of birch, hazel and horse chestnut in Munich (2010) along with the suitability of leaf morphological parameters of birch for monitoring air pollution using two datasets: cumulated atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and ozone derived from passive sampling (short-term exposure) and pollutant information derived from Land Use Regression models (long-term exposure). Partial correlations and stepwise regressions revealed that increased ozone (birch, horse chestnut), NO2, NOx and PM levels (hazel) were significantly related to delays in phenology. Correlations were especially high when rural sites were excluded suggesting a better estimation of long-term within-city pollution. In situ measurements of foliar characteristics of birch were not suitable for bio-monitoring pollution. Inconsistencies between long- and short-term exposure effects suggest some caution when interpreting short-term data collected within field studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Morphological constraints on changing avian migration phenology.

PubMed

Møller, A P; Rubolini, D; Saino, N

2017-06-01

Many organisms at northern latitudes have responded to climate warming by advancing their spring phenology. Birds are known to show earlier timing of spring migration and reproduction in response to warmer springs. However, species show heterogeneous phenological responses to climate warming, with those that have not advanced or have delayed migration phenology experiencing population declines. Although some traits (such as migration distance) partly explain heterogeneity in phenological responses, the factors affecting interspecies differences in the responsiveness to climate warming have yet to be fully explored. In this comparative study, we investigate whether variation in wing aspect ratio (reflecting relative wing narrowness), an ecomorphological trait that is strongly associated with flight efficiency and migratory behaviour, affects the ability to advance timing of spring migration during 1960-2006 in a set of 80 European migratory bird species. Species with larger aspect ratio (longer and narrower wings) showed smaller advancement of timing of spring migration compared to species with smaller aspect ratio (shorter and wider wings) while controlling for phylogeny, migration distance and other life-history traits. In turn, migration distance positively predicted aspect ratio across species. Hence, species that are better adapted to migration appear to be more constrained in responding phenologically to rapid climate warming by advancing timing of spring migration. Our findings corroborate the idea that aspect ratio is a major evolutionary correlate of migration, and suggest that selection for energetically efficient flights, as reflected by high aspect ratio, may hinder phenotypically plastic/microevolutionary adjustments of migration phenology to ongoing climatic changes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2011-01-01

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Analyzing phenological extreme events over the past five decades in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleip, Christoph; Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole; Graeser, Philipp

2010-05-01

As climate change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures, we analysed whether warming of the last 5 decades has already changed the statistics of phenological extreme events. In this context, two extreme value statistical concepts are discussed and applied to existing phenological datasets of German Weather Service (DWD) in order to derive probabilities of occurrence for extreme early or late phenological events. We analyse four phenological groups; "begin of flowering, "leaf foliation", "fruit ripening" and "leaf colouring" as well as DWD indicator phases of the "phenological year". Additionally we put an emphasis on a between-species analysis; a comparison of differences in extreme onsets between three common northern conifers. Furthermore we conducted a within-species analysis with different phases of horse chestnut throughout a year. The first statistical approach fits data to a Gaussian model using traditional statistical techniques, and then analyses the extreme quantile. The key point of this approach is the adoption of an appropriate probability density function (PDF) to the observed data and the assessment of the PDF parameters change in time. The full analytical description in terms of the estimated PDF for defined time steps of the observation period allows probability assessments of extreme values for e.g. annual or decadal time steps. Related with this approach is the possibility of counting out the onsets which fall in our defined extreme percentiles. The estimation of the probability of extreme events on the basis of the whole data set is in contrast to analyses with the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). The second approach deals with the extreme PDFs itself and fits the GEV distribution to annual minima of phenological series to provide useful estimates about return levels. For flowering and leaf unfolding phases exceptionally early extremes are seen since the mid 1980s and especially for the single years 1961

Wood phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delpierre, Nicolas; Guillemot, Joannès

2016-04-01

In temperate and boreal trees, a dormancy period prevents organ development during adverse climatic conditions. Whereas the phenology of leaves and flowers has received considerable attention, to date, little is known regarding the phenology of other tree organs such as wood, fine roots, fruits and reserve compounds. In this presentation, we review both the role of environmental drivers in determining the phenology of wood and the models used to predict its phenology in temperate and boreal forest trees. Temperature is a key driver of the resumption of wood activity in spring. There is no such clear dominant environmental cue involved in the cessation of wood formation in autumn, but temperature and water stress appear as prominent factors. We show that wood phenology is a key driver of the interannual variability of wood growth in temperate tree species. Incorporating representations of wood phenology in a terrestrial ecosystem model substantially improved the simulation of wood growth under current climate.

Satellite-derived ice data sets no. 2: Arctic monthly average microwave brightness temperatures and sea ice concentrations, 1973-1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, C. L.; Comiso, J. C.; Zwally, H. J.

1987-01-01

A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

Match and mismatch - comparing plant phenological metrics from ground-observations and from a prognostic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto; Jeanneret, François; Peñuelas, Josep

2010-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies., At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model's empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to

On averaging aspect ratios and distortion parameters over ice crystal population ensembles for estimating effective scattering asymmetry parameters

PubMed Central

van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Fridlind, Ann M.; Cairns, Brian

2017-01-01

The use of ensemble-average values of aspect ratio and distortion parameter of hexagonal ice prisms for the estimation of ensemble-average scattering asymmetry parameters is evaluated. Using crystal aspect ratios greater than unity generally leads to ensemble-average values of aspect ratio that are inconsistent with the ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. When a definition of aspect ratio is used that limits the aspect ratio to below unity (α≤1) for both hexagonal plates and columns, the effective asymmetry parameters calculated using ensemble-average aspect ratios are generally consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters, especially if aspect ratios are geometrically averaged. Ensemble-average distortion parameters generally also yield effective asymmetry parameters that are largely consistent with ensemble-average asymmetry parameters. In the case of mixtures of plates and columns, it is recommended to geometrically average the α≤1 aspect ratios and to subsequently calculate the effective asymmetry parameter using a column or plate geometry when the contribution by columns to a given mixture’s total projected area is greater or lower than 50%, respectively. In addition, we show that ensemble-average aspect ratios, distortion parameters and asymmetry parameters can generally be retrieved accurately from simulated multi-directional polarization measurements based on mixtures of varying columns and plates. However, such retrievals tend to be somewhat biased toward yielding column-like aspect ratios. Furthermore, generally large retrieval errors can occur for mixtures with approximately equal contributions of columns and plates and for ensembles with strong contributions of thin plates. PMID:28983127

Variations in global land surface phenology: a comparison of satellite optical and passive microwave data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, X.; Tian, F.; Brandt, M.; Zhang, W.; Liu, Y.; Fensholt, R.

2017-12-01

Changes in vegetation phenological events are among the most sensitive biological responses to climate change. In last decades, facilitating by satellite remote sensing techniques, land surface phenology (LSP) have been monitored at global scale using proxy approaches as tracking the temporal change of a satellite-derived vegetation index. However, the existing global assessments of changes in LSP are all established on the basis of leaf phenology using NDVI derived from optical sensors, being responsive to vegetation canopy cover and greenness. Instead, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from passive microwave sensors, which is sensitive to the aboveground vegetation water content by including as well the woody components in the observations, provides an alternative, independent and comprehensive means for global vegetation phenology monitoring. We used the unique long-term global VOD record available for the period 1992-2012 to monitoring the dynamics of LSP metrics (length of season, start of season and end of season) in comparison with the dynamics of LSP metrics derived from the latest GIMMS NDVI3G V1. We evaluated the differences in the linear trends of LSP metrics between two datasets. Currently, our results suggest that the level of seasonality variation of vegetation water content is less than the vegetation greenness. We found significant phenological changes in vegetation water content in African woodlands, where has been reported with little leaf phenological change regardless of the delays in rainfall onset. Therefore, VOD might allow us to detect temporal shifts in the timing difference of vegetation water storage vs. leaf emergence and to see if some ecophysiological thresholds seem to be reached, that could cause species turnover as climate change-driven alterations to the African monsoon proceed.

Biodiversity ensures plant-pollinator phenological synchrony against climate change.

PubMed

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Park, Mia G; Gibbs, Jason; Danforth, Bryan N; Lakso, Alan N; Winfree, Rachael

2013-11-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the phenological synchrony between interacting mutualists, such as plants and their pollinators. However, high levels of biodiversity might buffer the negative effects of species-specific phenological shifts and maintain synchrony at the community level, as predicted by the biodiversity insurance hypothesis. Here, we explore how biodiversity might enhance and stabilise phenological synchrony between a valuable crop, apple and its native pollinators. We combine 46 years of data on apple flowering phenology with historical records of bee pollinators over the same period. When the key apple pollinators are considered altogether, we found extensive synchrony between bee activity and apple peak bloom due to complementarity among bee species' activity periods, and also a stable trend over time due to differential responses to warming climate among bee species. A simulation model confirms that high biodiversity levels can ensure plant-pollinator phenological synchrony and thus pollination function. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate drives phenological reassembly of a mountain wildflower meadow community.

PubMed

Theobald, Elli J; Breckheimer, Ian; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-11-01

Spatial community reassembly driven by changes in species abundances or habitat occupancy is a well-documented response to anthropogenic global change, but communities can also reassemble temporally if the environment drives differential shifts in the timing of life events across community members. Much like spatial community reassembly, temporal reassembly could be particularly important when critical species interactions are temporally concentrated (e.g., plant-pollinator dynamics during flowering). Previous studies have documented species-specific shifts in phenology driven by climate change, implying that temporal reassembly, a process we term "phenological reassembly," is likely. However, few studies have documented changes in the temporal co-occurrence of community members driven by environmental change, likely because few datasets of entire communities exist. We addressed this gap by quantifying the relationship between flowering phenology and climate for 48 co-occurring subalpine wildflower species at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) in a large network of plots distributed across Mt. Rainier's steep environmental gradients; large spatio-temporal variability in climate over the 6 yr of our study (including the earliest and latest snowmelt year on record) provided robust estimates of climate-phenology relationships for individual species. We used these relationships to examine changes to community co-flowering composition driven by 'climate change analog' conditions experienced at our sites in 2015. We found that both the timing and duration of flowering of focal species was strongly sensitive to multiple climatic factors (snowmelt, temperature, and soil moisture). Some consistent responses emerged, including earlier snowmelt and warmer growing seasons driving flowering phenology earlier for all focal species. However, variation among species in their phenological sensitivities to these climate drivers was large enough that phenological reassembly occurred in

Root and Shoot Phenology May Respond Differently to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radville, L.; Eissenstat, D. M.; Post, E.

2015-12-01

Climate change is increasing temperatures and extending the growing season for many organisms. Shifts in phenology have been widely reported in response to global warming and have strong effects on ecosystem processes and greenhouse gas emissions. It is well understood that warming generally advances aboveground plant phenology, but the influence of temperature on root phenology is unclear. Most terrestrial biosphere models assume that root and shoot growth occur at the same time and are influenced by warming in the same way, but recent studies suggest that this may not be the case. Testing this assumption is particularly important in the Arctic where over 70% of plant biomass can be belowground and warming is happening faster than in other ecosystems. In 2013 and 2014 we examined the timing of root growth in the Arctic in plots that had been warmed or unwarmed for 10 years. We found that peak root growth occurred about one month before leaf growth, suggesting that spring root phenology is not controlled by carbon produced during spring photosynthesis. If root phenology is not controlled by photosynthate early in the season, earlier spring leaf growth may not cause earlier spring root growth. In support of this, we found that warming advanced spring leaf cover but did not significantly affect root phenology. Root growth was not significantly correlated with soil temperature and did not appear to be limited by near-freezing temperatures above the permafrost. These results suggest that although shoots are influenced by temperature, roots in this system may be more influenced by photosynthesis and carbon storage. Aboveground phenology, one of the most widely measured aspects of climate change, may not represent whole-plant phenology and may be a poor indicator of the timing of whole-plant carbon fluxes. Additionally, climate model assumptions that roots and shoots grow at the same time may need to be revised.

Sensitivities of Greenland ice sheet volume inferred from an ice sheet adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

2009-04-01

We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. Since its introduction by MacAyeal (1992), the adjoint method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters such as basal conditions. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. As a first step toward the use of adjoints of comprehensive three-dimensional ice sheet models we have generated an adjoint of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated by means of the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. The AD tool generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the nonlinear parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. By way of example, we determine the sensitivity of the total Greenland ice volume to various control variables, such as spatial fields of basal flow parameters, surface and basal forcings, and initial conditions. Reliability of the adjoint was tested through finite-difference perturbation calculations for various control variables and perturbation regions. Besides confirming qualitative aspects of ice sheet sensitivities, such as expected regional variations, we detect regions where model sensitivities are seemingly unexpected or counter-intuitive, albeit ``real'' in the sense of actual model behavior. An example is inferred regions where sensitivities of ice sheet volume to basal sliding coefficient are positive, i.e. where a local increase in basal sliding parameter increases the ice sheet volume. Similarly, positive ice temperature sensitivities in certain parts

The USA-NPN Information Management System: A tool in support of phenological assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosemartin, A.; Vazquez, R.; Wilson, B. E.; Denny, E. G.

2009-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. Data management and information sharing are central to the USA-NPN mission. The USA-NPN develops, implements, and maintains a comprehensive Information Management System (IMS) to serve the needs of the network, including the collection, storage and dissemination of phenology data, access to phenology-related information, tools for data interpretation, and communication among partners of the USA-NPN. The IMS includes components for data storage, such as the National Phenology Database (NPD), and several online user interfaces to accommodate data entry, data download, data visualization and catalog searches for phenology-related information. The IMS is governed by a set of standards to ensure security, privacy, data access, and data quality. The National Phenology Database is designed to efficiently accommodate large quantities of phenology data, to be flexible to the changing needs of the network, and to provide for quality control. The database stores phenology data from multiple sources (e.g., partner organizations, researchers and citizen observers), and provides for integration with legacy datasets. Several services will be created to provide access to the data, including reports, visualization interfaces, and web services. These services will provide integrated access to phenology and related information for scientists, decision-makers and general audiences. Phenological assessments at any scale will rely on secure and flexible information management systems for the organization and analysis of phenology data. The USA-NPN’s IMS can serve phenology assessments directly, through data management and indirectly as a model for large-scale integrated data management.

A modeling approach to investigate the sensitivity of plankton phenology to global change since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, K.; Kucera, M.; Schulz, M.

2016-02-01

Plankton phenology is a key aspect of ecosystem dynamics. Up to now, it is not known how sensitive this parameter is to environmental perturbations and what magnitude of change is conceivable under extreme climate change scenarios. For example, one could argue that the phenology of the dominant Arctic planktonic foraminifera species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma will only shift slightly recording the more or less delayed onset of spring ocean warming. This assumption can be tested by examining the likely phenology of this species in the fossil record. Although phenology is difficult to derive directly from proxies, it can be estimated for past periods by models. Here we use an ecosystem modeling approach to investigate seasonal variations of N. pachyderma since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the North Atlantic. The model implies that the phenology of N. pachyderma during the LGM and the ensuing Heinrich Event 1 shifted by several months from the modern situation with a maximum seasonal production occurring later in the year (i.e. boreal summer). In comparison with the fossil records our model performs well in reproducing the observed abundance patterns and range shifts in the studied species during the last glacial period. Hence, the predicted large (and partly no-analog) shifts in the phenology of N. pachyderma are a plausible scenario. For instance, its maximum growth during Heinrich Event 1 in a region northeast of Newfoundland occurred during a part of the season where this species never peaks anywhere in the North Atlantic at present. Understanding the drivers of this change and knowing the potential adaptive space of phenology shifts are essential in predictions of plankton response to future global change scenarios.

Phenology of temperate trees in tropical climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borchert, Rolf; Robertson, Kevin; Schwartz, Mark D.; Williams-Linera, Guadalupe

2005-09-01

Several North American broad-leaved tree species range from the northern United States at ˜47°N to moist tropical montane forests in Mexico and Central America at 15-20°N. Along this gradient the average minimum temperatures of the coldest month (T Jan), which characterize annual variation in temperature, increase from -10 to 12°C and tree phenology changes from deciduous to leaf-exchanging or evergreen in the southern range with a year-long growing season. Between 30 and 45°N, the time of bud break is highly correlated with T Jan and bud break can be reliably predicted for the week in which mean minimum temperature rises to 7°C. Temperature-dependent deciduous phenology—and hence the validity of temperature-driven phenology models—terminates in southern North America near 30°N, where T Jan>7°C enables growth of tropical trees and cultivation of frost-sensitive citrus fruits. In tropical climates most temperate broad-leaved species exchange old for new leaves within a few weeks in January-February, i.e., their phenology becomes similar to that of tropical leaf-exchanging species. Leaf buds of the southern ecotypes of these temperate species are therefore not winter-dormant and have no chilling requirement. As in many tropical trees, bud break of Celtis, Quercus and Fagus growing in warm climates is induced in early spring by increasing daylength. In tropical climates vegetative phenology is determined mainly by leaf longevity, seasonal variation in water stress and day length. As water stress during the dry season varies widely with soil water storage, climate-driven models cannot predict tree phenology in the tropics and tropical tree phenology does not constitute a useful indicator of global warming.

Linking growing degree-days and cranberry plant phenology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Steffan lab has coordinated cranberry growers as citizen scientists since 2014 to record growing degree-days and make observations of cranberry plant phenology. The data from the last three years was analyzed to link plant phenology with degree-days....

Pituophis ruthveni (Louisiana pinesnake) Reproduction/breeding phenology

Treesearch

Josh B. Pierce; Craig Rudolph; Christopher A. Melder; Beau B. Gregory

2016-01-01

Determing the reproductive phenology of snakes is important since it marks a time period where snakes are particularly vulnerable to predation. In addition, knowledge of reproductive phenology may help captive breeding programs specify appropriate times to pair snakes for reproduction.

Ice Roughness in Short Duration SLD Icing Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Stephen T.; Reed, Dana; Vargas, Mario; Kreeger, Richard E.; Tsao, Jen-Ching

2014-01-01

Ice accretion codes depend on models of roughness parameters to account for the enhanced heat transfer during the ice accretion process. While mitigating supercooled large droplet (SLD or Appendix O) icing is a significant concern for manufacturers seeking future vehicle certification due to the pending regulation, historical ice roughness studies have been performed using Appendix C icing clouds which exhibit mean volumetric diameters (MVD) much smaller than SLD clouds. Further, the historical studies of roughness focused on extracting parametric representations of ice roughness using multiple images of roughness elements. In this study, the ice roughness developed on a 21-in. NACA 0012 at 0deg angle of attack exposed to short duration SLD icing events was measured in the Icing Research Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The MVD's used in the study ranged from 100 micrometer to 200 micrometers, in a 67 m/s flow, with liquid water contents of either 0.6 gm/cubic meters or 0.75 gm/cubic meters. The ice surfaces were measured using a Romer Absolute Arm laser scanning system. The roughness associated with each surface point cloud was measured using the two-dimensional self-organizing map approach developed by McClain and Kreeger (2013) resulting in statistical descriptions of the ice roughness.

Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Xiayong; Friedl, Mark A.; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Strahler, Alan H.; Hodges, John C.F.; Gao, Feng; Reed, Bradley C.; Huete, Alfredo

2003-01-01

Accurate measurements of regional to global scale vegetation dynamics (phenology) are required to improve models and understanding of inter-annual variability in terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange and climate–biosphere interactions. Since the mid-1980s, satellite data have been used to study these processes. In this paper, a new methodology to monitor global vegetation phenology from time series of satellite data is presented. The method uses series of piecewise logistic functions, which are fit to remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) data, to represent intra-annual vegetation dynamics. Using this approach, transition dates for vegetation activity within annual time series of VI data can be determined from satellite data. The method allows vegetation dynamics to be monitored at large scales in a fashion that it is ecologically meaningful and does not require pre-smoothing of data or the use of user-defined thresholds. Preliminary results based on an annual time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the northeastern United States demonstrate that the method is able to monitor vegetation phenology with good success.

An operational monitoring and display system for phenological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Koch, Elisabeth

2013-04-01

Some national weather services operate a special web interface, where citizens can enter their phenological observations. Such a system opens the opportunity to immediately display the current state of the seasonal vegetation development. Here a few simple tools are introduced to evaluate and display near real time phenological observations with respect to the interannual variability and trends over the last decades. For many phenological phases continuous time series since 1946 are available in Austria, which is a time period sufficiently long to study the climate impact on phenology. Phenological observations can be entered in near real time via the ZAMG web - portal or be digitised after the season from the observer sheets with a considerable time lag. About 30% to 50% of the total phenological data stem from the near real time system, which can be used for near real time monitoring of the phenological season. The minimum number of observations, which must be available for inclusion in the procedure has arbitrarily been set to 12 in order to allow a reasonable height regression. The system installed at the ZAMG produces a nightly update of the statistical analysis and figures, which can then for instance be summarised for a news release. At the moment there is no spatial differentiation possible. All conclusions and figures are based on phenological entry dates over all Austrian observations, which have been standardised to an arbitrary station elevation of 200 m above sea level via height regression. The 2012 Austrian phenological season in relation to 1946 - 2011 The cold period from end of January to beginning of February 2012 in Austria has also left its marks on the phenological season. The early phases like beginning of flowering of snow drop, hazel or willow are to be found in the median position of rank 32 of 67 years since 1946. The remainder of the 2012 season generally shows rather early entry dates. On average the phenological entry dates range at

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of water ice porosity: extrapolations of deposition parameters from the laboratory to interstellar space.

PubMed

Clements, Aspen R; Berk, Brandon; Cooke, Ilsa R; Garrod, Robin T

2018-02-21

Dust grains in cold, dense interstellar clouds build up appreciable ice mantles through the accretion and subsequent surface chemistry of atoms and molecules from the gas. These mantles, of thicknesses on the order of 100 monolayers, are primarily composed of H 2 O, CO, and CO 2 . Laboratory experiments using interstellar ice analogues have shown that porosity could be present and can facilitate diffusion of molecules along the inner pore surfaces. However, the movement of molecules within and upon the ice is poorly described by current chemical kinetics models, making it difficult either to reproduce the formation of experimental porous ice structures or to extrapolate generalized laboratory results to interstellar conditions. Here we use the off-lattice Monte Carlo kinetics model MIMICK to investigate the effects that various deposition parameters have on laboratory ice structures. The model treats molecules as isotropic spheres of a uniform size, using a Lennard-Jones potential. We reproduce experimental trends in the density of amorphous solid water (ASW) for varied deposition angle, rate and surface temperature; ice density decreases when the incident angle or deposition rate is increased, while increasing temperature results in a more-compact water ice. The models indicate that the density behaviour at higher temperatures (≥80 K) is dependent on molecular rearrangement resulting from thermal diffusion. To reproduce trends at lower temperatures, it is necessary to take account of non-thermal diffusion by newly-adsorbed molecules, which bring kinetic energy both from the gas phase and from their acceleration into a surface binding site. Extrapolation of the model to conditions appropriate to protoplanetary disks, in which direct accretion of water from the gas-phase may be the dominant ice formation mechanism, indicate that these ices may be less porous than laboratory ices.

Citizen science: Plant and insect phenology with regards to degree-days

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Daily minimum and maximum temperatures collected from grower-collaborators were used to calculate site specific degree-days. Using our new understanding of Sparganothis phenology, plant phenology were examined relative to moth phenology, allowing us to predict moth development in parallel with plant...

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to

Arctic Sea Ice Parameters from AMSR-E Data using Two Techniques, and Comparisons with Sea Ice from SSM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2007-01-01

We use two algorithms to process AMSR-E data in order to determine algorithm dependence, if any, on the estimates of sea ice concentration, ice extent and area, and trends and to evaluate how AMSR-E data compare with historical SSM/I data. The monthly ice concentrations derived from the two algorithms from AMSR-E data (the AMSR-E Bootstrap Algorithm, or ABA, and the enhanced NASA Team algorithm, or NT2) differ on average by about 1 to 3%, with data from the consolidated ice region being generally comparable for ABA and NT2 retrievals while data in the marginal ice zones and thin ice regions show higher values when the NT2 algorithm is used. The ice extents and areas derived separately from AMSR-E using these two algorithms are, however, in good agreement, with the differences (ABA-NT2) being about 6.6 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers on average for ice extents and -6.6 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers for ice area which are small compared to mean seasonal values of 10.5 x 10(exp 6) and 9.8 x 10(exp 6) for ice extent and area: respectively. Likewise, extents and areas derived from the same algorithm but from AMSR-E and SSM/I data are consistent but differ by about -24.4 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers and -13.9 x 10(exp 4) square kilometers, respectively. The discrepancies are larger with the estimates of extents than area mainly because of differences in channel selection and sensor resolutions. Trends in extent during the AMSR-E era were also estimated and results from all three data sets are shown to be in good agreement (within errors).

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

PubMed

Migliavacca, M; Cremonese, E; Colombo, R; Busetto, L; Galvagno, M; Ganis, L; Meroni, M; Pari, E; Rossini, M; Siniscalco, C; Morra di Cella, U

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

An Evaluation of Data Fusion Products for the Analysis of Dryland Forest Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. J.; de Beurs, K.; Wynne, R. H.; Gao, F.

2010-12-01

identified dryland forest pixels in both images. Preliminary data analysis of the effect of the temporal resolution and dataset parameters indicates that the MODIS 8-day composite image may be a suitable and sufficient dataset for phenological analysis in this dryland forest ecosystem. Overall, this work demonstrates the feasibility of using data fusion products to assemble an imagery dataset at sufficiently high temporal and spatial scales to permit a more detailed examination of the underlying phenological processes and trends in dryland forest areas.

Review: advances in in situ and satellite phenological observations in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Shin; Nasahara, Kenlo Nishida; Inoue, Tomoharu; Saitoh, Taku M.; Suzuki, Rikie

2016-04-01

To accurately evaluate the responses of spatial and temporal variation of ecosystem functioning (evapotranspiration and photosynthesis) and services (regulating and cultural services) to the rapid changes caused by global warming, we depend on long-term, continuous, near-surface, and satellite remote sensing of phenology over wide areas. Here, we review such phenological studies in Japan and discuss our current knowledge, problems, and future developments. In contrast with North America and Europe, Japan has been able to evaluate plant phenology along vertical and horizontal gradients within a narrow area because of the country's high topographic relief. Phenological observation networks that support scientific studies and outreach activities have used near-surface tools such as digital cameras and spectral radiometers. Differences in phenology among ecosystems and tree species have been detected by analyzing the seasonal variation of red, green, and blue digital numbers (RGB values) extracted from phenological images, as well as spectral reflectance and vegetation indices. The relationships between seasonal variations in RGB-derived indices or spectral characteristics and the ecological and CO2 flux measurement data have been well validated. In contrast, insufficient satellite remote-sensing observations have been conducted because of the coarse spatial resolution of previous datasets, which could not detect the heterogeneous plant phenology that results from Japan's complex topography and vegetation. To improve Japanese phenological observations, multidisciplinary analysis and evaluation will be needed to link traditional phenological observations with "index trees," near-surface and satellite remote-sensing observations, "citizen science" (observations by citizens), and results published on the Internet.

Building a Shared Understanding of Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosemartin, A.; Posthumus, E.; Gerst, K.

2017-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) seeks to advance the science of phenology and support the use of phenology information in decision-making. We envision that natural resource, human health, recreation and land-use decisions, in the context of a variable and changing climate, will be supported by USA-NPN products and tools. To achieve this vision we developed a logic model, breaking down the necessary inputs (e.g., IT infrastructure), participants, activities and the short- to long-term goals (e.g., use of phenological information in adaptive management). Here we compare the ongoing activities and outcomes of three recent collaborations to our logic model, in order to improve the model and inform future collaborations. At Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, resource managers use the USA-NPN's phenology monitoring program to pinpoint the minimum number of days between initial growth and seed set in an invasive species. The data output and calendar visualizations that USA-NPN provides are sufficient to identify the appropriate treatment window. In contrast to a direct relationship with a natural resource manager using USA-NPN tools and products, some collaborations require substantive iterative work between partners. USA-NPN and National Park Service staff, along with academic researchers, assessed advancement in the timing of spring, and delivered the work in a format appropriate for park managers. Lastly, collaborations with indigenous communities reveal a requirement to reconsider the relationship between Western science and indigenous knowledge systems, as well as address ethical considerations and develop trust, before Western science can be meaningfully incorporated into decision-making. While the USA-NPN is a boundary organization, working in between federal agencies, states and universities, and is mandated to support decision-making, we still face challenges in generating usable science. We share lessons learned based on our experience with

Visualizing Phenology and Climate Data at the National Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosemartin, A.; Marsh, L.

2013-12-01

Nature's Notebook is the USA National Phenology Network's national-scale plant and animal phenology observation program, designed to address the challenges posed by global change and its impacts on ecosystems and human health. Since its inception in 2009, 2,500 participants in Nature's Notebook have submitted 2.3 million records on the phenology of 17,000 organisms across the United States. An information architecture has been developed to facilitate collaboration and participatory data collection and digitization. Browser-based and mobile applications support data submission, and a MySQL/Drupal multi-site infrastructure enables data storage, access and discovery. Web services are available for both input and export of data resources. In this presentation we will focus on a tool for visualizing phenology data at the national scale. Effective data exploration for this multi-dimensional dataset requires the ability to plot sites, select species and phenophases, graph organismal phenology through time, and view integrated precipitation and temperature data. We will demonstrate the existing tool's capacity, discuss future directions and solicit feedback from the community.

High Arctic plant phenology is determined by snowmelt patterns but duration of phenological periods is fixed: an example of periodicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Gillespie, Mark A. K.; Rumpf, Sabine B.; Baggesen, Nanna; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

2016-12-01

The duration of specific periods within a plant’s life cycle are critical for plant growth and performance. In the High Arctic, the start of many of these phenological periods is determined by snowmelt date, which may change in a changing climate. It has been suggested that the end of these periods during late-season are triggered by external cues, such as day length, light quality or temperature, leading to the hypothesis that earlier or later snowmelt dates will lengthen or shorten the duration of these periods, respectively, and thereby affect plant performance. We tested whether snowmelt date controls phenology and phenological period duration in High Arctic Svalbard using a melt timing gradient from natural and experimentally altered snow depths. We investigated the response of early- and late-season phenophases from both vegetative and reproductive phenological periods of eight common species. We found that all phenophases follow snowmelt patterns, irrespective of timing of occurrence, vegetative or reproductive nature. Three of four phenological period durations based on these phenophases were fixed for most species, defining the studied species as periodic. Periodicity can thus be considered an evolutionary trait leading to disadvantages compared with aperiodic species and we conclude that the mesic and heath vegetation types in Svalbard are at risk of being outcompeted by invading, aperiodic species from milder biomes.

Flower power: tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds.

PubMed

McGrath, Laura J; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration.

Flower power: Tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGrath, L.J.; van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, J.J.

2009-01-01

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization.

PubMed

Navarro-Cano, Jose A; Karlsson, Bengt; Posledovich, Diana; Toftegaard, Tenna; Wiklund, Christer; Ehrlén, Johan; Gotthard, Karl

2015-01-01

Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly-host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.

Phenology Atlas of Czechia in preparation - aim & content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajkova, L.; Nekovar, J.; Novak, M.; Richterova, D.

2009-09-01

The main task is to create Phenology Atlas of Czechia for the period 1991 - 2010 by using geographic information systems. The general outputs will be maps (average phenophase onset at different altitudes), graphs (evaluation of phenophase onset in time) and tables (statistical results) with text, picture and botanical specification. The publication will be divided into 6 main chapters (Introduction, Phenology in Czechia & Europe, Methodology of observation, Field crops & Fruit trees & Wild plants, Phenology regionalisation, Temporal and Spatial variability). The essantial emphasis will be enforced on wild plants especially allergology important plants and phenophases. CHMI phenological and meteorological data will be used as an input data. This publication will be allocated for general public, supposed size B4, 270 - 300 pages. The research project is proposed for 3 years (2009 - 2011). In the presentation will be given several examples of Atlas content (Norway Spruce and Birch phenophases from Transaction of CHMI Nr.50, 2007).

Reproductive phenology of coastal plain Atlantic forest vegetation: comparisons from seashore to foothills.

PubMed

Staggemeier, Vanessa Graziele; Morellato, Leonor Patrícia Cerdeira

2011-11-01

The diversity of tropical forest plant phenology has called the attention of researchers for a long time. We continue investigating the factors that drive phenological diversity on a wide scale, but we are unaware of the variation of plant reproductive phenology at a fine spatial scale despite the high spatial variation in species composition and abundance in tropical rainforests. We addressed fine scale variability by investigating the reproductive phenology of three contiguous vegetations across the Atlantic rainforest coastal plain in Southeastern Brazil. We asked whether the vegetations differed in composition and abundance of species, the microenvironmental conditions and the reproductive phenology, and how their phenology is related to regional and local microenvironmental factors. The study was conducted from September 2007 to August 2009 at three contiguous sites: (1) seashore dominated by scrub vegetation, (2) intermediary covered by restinga forest and (3) foothills covered by restinga pre-montane transitional forest. We conducted the microenvironmental, plant and phenological survey within 30 transects of 25 m × 4 m (10 per site). We detected significant differences in floristic, microenvironment and reproductive phenology among the three vegetations. The microenvironment determines the spatial diversity observed in the structure and composition of the flora, which in turn determines the distinctive flowering and fruiting peaks of each vegetation (phenological diversity). There was an exchange of species providing flowers and fruits across the vegetation complex. We conclude that plant reproductive patterns as described in most phenological studies (without concern about the microenvironmental variation) may conceal the fine scale temporal phenological diversity of highly diverse tropical vegetation. This phenological diversity should be taken into account when generating sensor-derived phenologies and when trying to understand tropical vegetation

Genetic and physiological bases for phenological responses to current and predicted climates

PubMed Central

Wilczek, A. M.; Burghardt, L. T.; Cobb, A. R.; Cooper, M. D.; Welch, S. M.; Schmitt, J.

2010-01-01

We are now reaching the stage at which specific genetic factors with known physiological effects can be tied directly and quantitatively to variation in phenology. With such a mechanistic understanding, scientists can better predict phenological responses to novel seasonal climates. Using the widespread model species Arabidopsis thaliana, we explore how variation in different genetic pathways can be linked to phenology and life-history variation across geographical regions and seasons. We show that the expression of phenological traits including flowering depends critically on the growth season, and we outline an integrated life-history approach to phenology in which the timing of later life-history events can be contingent on the environmental cues regulating earlier life stages. As flowering time in many plants is determined by the integration of multiple environmentally sensitive gene pathways, the novel combinations of important seasonal cues in projected future climates will alter how phenology responds to variation in the flowering time gene network with important consequences for plant life history. We discuss how phenology models in other systems—both natural and agricultural—could employ a similar framework to explore the potential contribution of genetic variation to the physiological integration of cues determining phenology. PMID:20819808

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New insights on plant phenological response to temperature revealed from long-term widespread observations in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Haicheng; Liu, Shuguang; Regnier, Pierre; Yuan, Wenping

2018-05-01

Constraints of temperature on spring plant phenology are closely related to plant growth, vegetation dynamics, and ecosystem carbon cycle. However, the effects of temperature on leaf onset, especially for winter chilling, are still not well understood. Using long-term, widespread in situ phenology observations collected over China for multiple plant species, this study analyzes the quantitative response of leaf onset to temperature, and compares empirical findings with existing theories and modeling approaches, as implemented in 18 phenology algorithms. Results show that the growing degree days (GDD) required for leaf onset vary distinctly among plant species and geographical locations as well as at organizational levels (species and community), pointing to diverse adaptation strategies. Chilling durations (CHD) needed for releasing bud dormancy decline monotonously from cold to warm areas with very limited interspecies variations. Results also reveal that winter chilling is a crucial component of phenology models, and its effect is better captured with an index that accounts for the inhomogeneous effectiveness of low temperature to chilling rate than with the conventional CHD index. The impact of spring warming on leaf onset is nonlinear, better represented by a logistical function of temperature than by the linear function currently implemented in biosphere models. The optimized base temperatures for thermal accumulation and the optimal chilling temperatures are species-dependent and average at 6.9 and 0.2°C, respectively. Overall, plants' chilling requirement is not a constant, and more chilling generally results in less requirement of thermal accumulation for leaf onset. Our results clearly demonstrate multiple deficiencies of the parameters (e.g., base temperature) and algorithms (e.g., method for calculating GDD) in conventional phenology models to represent leaf onset. Therefore, this study not only advances our mechanistic and quantitative understanding

Future Phenology: Challenges for an Integrative Environmental Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, M. D.

2004-12-01

Phenology is an interdisciplinary environmental science, and as such brings together individuals from many different scientific backgrounds, but the full benefits of their combined disciplinary perspectives to enrich phenological research have yet to be realized. The last few years have seen rapid progress in the transmission of "phenological perspectives" into the mainstream of science, especially related to the needs of global change research. While other parts of phenological research are still important and need to progress, it is global change science that will stimulate, challenge, and transform the discipline of phenology most in the coming decades. In order to maximize the benefits of phenology for global change research as rapidly as possible, commitments to integrative thinking and large-scale data collection must be accelerated. First of all, the limitations of the primary forms of data collection (remote sensing derived, native species, cloned indicator species, and model output) must be accepted. None of these data sources can meet the needs of all research questions, and an "integrative approach" that combines data types provides synergistic benefits. The most needed data are traditional native and cloned plant species observations. Networks that select a small number of common plants for coordinated observation among national and global scale networks will prove the most useful. These networks should be embraced and integrated into the missions of national weather services around the world, as is now the case in many European countries. A little more than one hundred years ago, the countries of the world began to cooperate in a global-scale network of weather and climate monitoring stations. The results of this long-term investment are the considerable progress that has been made in understanding the workings of the earth's climate systems. We have a similar opportunity with phenological data--small investments in national and global

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2016-2017

DOE Data Explorer

Richardson, Andrew D.; Latimer, John M.; Nettles, W. Robert; Heiderman, Ryan R.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Hanson, Paul J.

2018-01-01

This data set consists of phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during the 2+ years (August 2015 through December 2017) of whole-ecosystem warming. For 2016, only springtime (April - June) phenological events are included. For 2017 (April - December), spring and autumn events are included.

Beginning in April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers. The observed date reported here is the first survey date on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed.

Satellite observation of lake ice as a climate indicator - Initial results from statewide monitoring in Wisconsin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wynne, Randolph H.; Lillesand, Thomas M.

1993-01-01

The research reported herein focused on the general hypothesis that satellite remote sensing of large-area, long-term trends in lake ice phenology (formation and breakup) is a robust, integrated measure of regional and global climate change. To validate this hypothesis, we explored the use of data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to discriminate the presence and extent of lake ice during the winter of 1990-1991 on the 45 lakes and reservoirs in Wisconsin with a surface area greater than 1,000 hectares. Our results suggest both the feasibility of using the AVHRR to determine the date of lake ice breakup as well as the strong correlation (R= -0.87) of the date so derived with local surface-based temperature measurements. These results suggest the potential of using current and archival satellite data to monitor changes in the date of lake ice breakup as a means of detecting regional 'signals' of greenhouse warming.

Shifts on reproductive phenology of tropical cerrado savanna trees and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellato, Patricia

2010-05-01

Phenology is the study of cyclic biological events and its relationship to abiotic factors. Timing of flowering, fruiting and leafing is highly correlated to environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, irradiance and isolation. Accordingly, any change in these factors may have a direct effect on the initiation, intensity and duration of different phenophases. Tropical phenology has not contributed much for climatic change research since historical data sets are scarce and the absence of sharp seasons and distinct factors driving phenology makes difficult the detection of changes over time. One way to have insights on climate driven phenology shifts on tropical plants is through the comparison of plant phenology under different environmental conditions. Fragmentation of natural landscape has exposed plants to edge effects - the interaction between two adjacent ecosystems, when the two are separated by an abrupt transition - the edge, including both abiotic and biological changes on environmental conditions that likely affect plant phenology. The microclimatic conditions along edges have important direct biological effects on the reproductive phenology and fitness of plant species. One can expected that the abiotic edge effects on plant phenology may be similar to some extent to certain effects induced by climate change on plant phenology since both involve shifts on environmental conditions. Due to the threatened status and rich biodiversity of Brazilian Neotropical savanna, or the Brazilian Cerrado, the present study aimed to understand edge effects on cerrado savanna species. We compared micro environmental factors and phenology of several species on the edge and in the interior of cerrado savanna. Our first results indicated that shifts on the micro environmental condition may have driven changes in time, duration and intensity of species phenology and may give us insights on savanna responses to climate changes.

Tree-grass phenology information improves light use efficiency modelling of gross primary productivity for an Australian tropical savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Caitlin E.; Beringer, Jason; Evans, Bradley; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Tapper, Nigel J.

2017-01-01

The coexistence of trees and grasses in savanna ecosystems results in marked phenological dynamics that vary spatially and temporally with climate. Australian savannas comprise a complex variety of life forms and phenologies, from evergreen trees to annual/perennial grasses, producing a boom-bust seasonal pattern of productivity that follows the wet-dry seasonal rainfall cycle. As the climate changes into the 21st century, modification to rainfall and temperature regimes in savannas is highly likely. There is a need to link phenology cycles of different species with productivity to understand how the tree-grass relationship may shift in response to climate change. This study investigated the relationship between productivity and phenology for trees and grasses in an Australian tropical savanna. Productivity, estimated from overstory (tree) and understory (grass) eddy covariance flux tower estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP), was compared against 2 years of repeat time-lapse digital photography (phenocams). We explored the phenology-productivity relationship at the ecosystem scale using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices and flux tower GPP. These data were obtained from the Howard Springs OzFlux/Fluxnet site (AU-How) in northern Australia. Two greenness indices were calculated from the phenocam images: the green chromatic coordinate (GCC) and excess green index (ExG). These indices captured the temporal dynamics of the understory (grass) and overstory (trees) phenology and were correlated well with tower GPP for understory (r2 = 0.65 to 0.72) but less so for the overstory (r2 = 0.14 to 0.23). The MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) correlated well with GPP at the ecosystem scale (r2 = 0.70). Lastly, we used GCC and EVI to parameterise a light use efficiency (LUE) model and found it to improve the estimates of GPP for the overstory, understory and ecosystem. We conclude that phenology is an important parameter to

First-year Progress and Future Directions of the USA National Phenology Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Losleben, M. V.

2008-12-01

Background Periodic plant and animal cycles driven by seasonal variations in climate (i.e., phenology) set the stage for dynamics of ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, as well as to stakeholders interested in agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management. The predictive potential of phenology requires a new data resource-a national network of integrated phenological observations and the tools to access and analyze them at multiple scales. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the Nation's resources. The USA-NPN will establish a wall-to-wall science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology as a tool to understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climate variation, and as a tool to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. Results The National Coordinating Office of the USA-NPN began operation in August 2007 at the University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. This first year of operation produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement, as well as identification of future directions for the USA NPN. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 185 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and monitoring protocols, as well as

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A.; Piao, Shilong

2017-04-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the northern hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e. temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed trend towards later EOS in 70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days per year. Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates (SOS) on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.

Microwave properties of sea ice in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Onstott, R. G.; Larson, R. W.

1986-01-01

Active microwave properties of summer sea ice were measured. Backscatter data were acquired at frequencies from 1 to 17 GHz, at angles from 0 to 70 deg from vertical, and with like and cross antenna polarizations. Results show that melt-water, snow thickness, snowpack morphology, snow surface roughness, ice surface roughness, and deformation characteristics are the fundamental scene parameters which govern the summer sea ice backscatter response. A thick, wet snow cover dominates the backscatter response and masks any ice sheet features below. However, snow and melt-water are not distributed uniformly and the stage of melt may also be quite variable. These nonuniformities related to ice type are not necessarily well understood and produce unique microwave signature characteristics.

Reverse engineering of legacy agricultural phenology modeling system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A program which implements predictive phenology modeling is a valuable tool for growers and scientists. Such a program was created in the late 1980's by the creators of general phenology modeling as proof of their techniques. However, this first program could not continue to meet the needs of the fi...

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Wolf, Amelia A; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C

2017-03-28

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology-the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richardson, Andrew D.

2015-11-25

The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digitalmore » cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.« less

Predicting future forests: Understanding diverse phenological responses within a community and functional trait framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolkovich, E. M.; Flynn, D. F. B.

2016-12-01

In recent years increasing attention has focused on plant phenology as an important indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, as many plants have shifted their leafing and flowering earlier with increasing temperatures. As data have accumulated, researchers have found a link between phenological responses to warming and plant performance and invasions. Such work suggests phenology may not only be a major impact of warming, but a critical predictor of future plant performance. Yet alongside this increasing interest in phenology, important issues remain unanswered: responses to warming for species at the same site or in the same genus vary often by weeks or more and the explanatory power of phenology for performance and invasions when analyzed across diverse datasets remains low. We propose progress can come from explicitly considering phenology within a community context and as a critical plant trait correlated with other major plant functional traits. Here, we lay out a framework for our proposal: specifically we review how we expect phenology and phenological cues of different species within a community to vary and what other functional traits are predicted to co-vary with phenological traits. Much research currently suggests phenology is a critical functional trait that is shaped strongly by the environment. Plants are expected to adjust their phenologies to avoid periods of high abiotic risk and/or high competition. Thus we may expect phenology to correlate strongly to other traits involved in mitigating risk and high competition. Results from recent meta-analyses as well as experimental and observational research from 28 species in northeastern North American temperate forests suggest that species within a community show the predicted diversified set of phenological cues. We review early work on links to other functional traits and in closing review how these correlations may in turn determine the diversity of phenological responses observed for

Phenology for science, resource management, decision making, and education

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, V.P.; Weltzin, J.F.

2011-01-01

Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.

Phenology for Science, Resource Management, Decision Making, and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolan, Vivian P.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2011-01-01

Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.

Informing agricultural management - The challenge of modelling grassland phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calanca, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Grasslands represent roughly 70% of the agricultural land worldwide, are the backbone of animal husbandry and contribute substantially to agricultural income. At the farm scale a proper management of meadows and pastures is necessary to attain a balance between forage production and consumption. A good hold on grassland phenology is of paramount importance in this context, because forage quantity and quality critically depend on the developmental stage of the sward. Traditionally, empirical rules have been used to advise farmers in this respect. Yet the provision of supporting information for decision making would clearly benefit from dedicated tools that integrate reliable models of grassland phenology. As with annual crops, in process-based models grassland phenology is usually described as a linear function of so-called growing degree days, whereby data from field trials and monitoring networks are used to calibrate the relevant parameters. It is shown in this contribution that while the approach can provide reasonable estimates of key developmental stages in an average sense, it fails to account for the variability observed in managed grasslands across sites and years, in particular concerning the start of the growing season. The analysis rests on recent data from western Switzerland, which serve as a benchmark for simulations carried out with grassland models of increasing complexity. Reasons for an unsatisfactory model performance and possibilities to improve current models are discussed, including the necessity to better account for species composition, late season management decisions, as well as plant physiological processes taking place during the winter season. The need to compile existing, and collect new data doe managed grasslands is also stressed.

Forecasting plant phenology: evaluating the phenological models for Betula pendula and Padus racemosa spring phases, Latvia.

PubMed

Kalvāns, Andis; Bitāne, Māra; Kalvāne, Gunta

2015-02-01

A historical phenological record and meteorological data of the period 1960-2009 are used to analyse the ability of seven phenological models to predict leaf unfolding and beginning of flowering for two tree species-silver birch Betula pendula and bird cherry Padus racemosa-in Latvia. Model stability is estimated performing multiple model fitting runs using half of the data for model training and the other half for evaluation. Correlation coefficient, mean absolute error and mean squared error are used to evaluate model performance. UniChill (a model using sigmoidal development rate and temperature relationship and taking into account the necessity for dormancy release) and DDcos (a simple degree-day model considering the diurnal temperature fluctuations) are found to be the best models for describing the considered spring phases. A strong collinearity between base temperature and required heat sum is found for several model fitting runs of the simple degree-day based models. Large variation of the model parameters between different model fitting runs in case of more complex models indicates similar collinearity and over-parameterization of these models. It is suggested that model performance can be improved by incorporating the resolved daily temperature fluctuations of the DDcos model into the framework of the more complex models (e.g. UniChill). The average base temperature, as found by DDcos model, for B. pendula leaf unfolding is 5.6 °C and for the start of the flowering 6.7 °C; for P. racemosa, the respective base temperatures are 3.2 °C and 3.4 °C.

Overview of Icing Physics Relevant to Scaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, David N.; Tsao, Jen-Ching

2005-01-01

An understanding of icing physics is required for the development of both scaling methods and ice-accretion prediction codes. This paper gives an overview of our present understanding of the important physical processes and the associated similarity parameters that determine the shape of Appendix C ice accretions. For many years it has been recognized that ice accretion processes depend on flow effects over the model, on droplet trajectories, on the rate of water collection and time of exposure, and, for glaze ice, on a heat balance. For scaling applications, equations describing these events have been based on analyses at the stagnation line of the model and have resulted in the identification of several non-dimensional similarity parameters. The parameters include the modified inertia parameter of the water drop, the accumulation parameter and the freezing fraction. Other parameters dealing with the leading edge heat balance have also been used for convenience. By equating scale expressions for these parameters to the values to be simulated a set of equations is produced which can be solved for the scale test conditions. Studies in the past few years have shown that at least one parameter in addition to those mentioned above is needed to describe surface-water effects, and some of the traditional parameters may not be as significant as once thought. Insight into the importance of each parameter, and the physical processes it represents, can be made by viewing whether ice shapes change, and the extent of the change, when each parameter is varied. Experimental evidence is presented to establish the importance of each of the traditionally used parameters and to identify the possible form of a new similarity parameter to be used for scaling.

Resource waves: phenological diversity enhances foraging opportunities for mobile consumers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, Jonathan B.; Takimoto, Gaku; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hayes, Matthew M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

Time can be a limiting constraint for consumers, particularly when resource phenology mediates foraging opportunity. Though a large body of research has explored how resource phenology influences trophic interactions, this work has focused on the topics of trophic mismatch or predator swamping, which typically occur over short periods, at small spatial extents or coarse resolutions. In contrast many consumers integrate across landscape heterogeneity in resource phenology, moving to track ephemeral food sources that propagate across space as resource waves. Here we provide a conceptual framework to advance the study of phenological diversity and resource waves. We define resource waves, review evidence of their importance in recent case studies, and demonstrate their broader ecological significance with a simulation model. We found that consumers ranging from fig wasps (Chalcidoidea) to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) exploit resource waves, integrating across phenological diversity to make resource aggregates available for much longer than their component parts. In model simulations, phenological diversity was often more important to consumer energy gain than resource abundance per se. Current ecosystem-based management assumes that species abundance mediates the strength of trophic interactions. Our results challenge this assumption and highlight new opportunities for conservation and management. Resource waves are an emergent property of consumer–resource interactions and are broadly significant in ecology and conservation.

A 280-Year Long Series of Phenological Observations of Cherry Tree Blossoming Dates for Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.

2003-04-01

Phenology is generally described as the timing of life cycle phases or activities of plants and animals in their temporal occurrence throughout the year (Lieth 1974). Recent studies have shown that meteorological and climatological impacts leave their 'fingerprints' across natural systems in general and strongly influence the seasonal activities of single animal and plant species. During the 20th century, phenological observation networks have been established around the world to document and analyze the influence of the globally changing climate to plants and wildlife. This work presents a first attempt of a unique 280-year long series of phenological observations of cherry tree blossoming dates for the Swiss plateau region. In Switzerland, a nation-wide phenological observation network has been established in 1951 currently documenting 69 phenophases of 26 different plant species. A guidebook seeks to increase objectiveness in the network observations. The observations of the blooming of the cherry tree (prunus avium) were chosen to calculate a mean series for the Swiss plateau region with observations from altitudes ranging between 370 and 860 asl. A total number of 737 observations from 21 stations were used. A linear regression was established between the mean blooming date and altitude in order to correct the data to a reference altitude level. Other ecological parameters were unaccounted for. The selected network data series from 1951 to 2000 was combined and prolonged with observations from various sources back to 1721. These include several historical observation series by farmers, clergymen and teachers, data from various stations collected at the newly established Swiss meteorological network from 1864 to 1873 and the single long series of observations from Liestal starting in 1894. The homogenized time series of observations will be compared with reconstructions of late winter temperatures as well as statistical estimations of blooming time based on

Development and Validation of National Phenology Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Rosemartin, A.; Crimmins, T. M.; Gerst, K.

2015-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and environmental change. The National Phenology Database (NPDb) maintained by USA-NPN contains almost 6 million in-situ observation records for plants and animals for the period 1954-2015. These data have been used in a number of science, conservation and natural resource management applications, including national assessments of historical and potential future trends in phenology and regional assessments of spatio-temporal variation in organismal activity. Customizable downloads of raw or summarized data, freely available from www.usanpn.org, are accompanied by metadata, data-use and data-attribution policies, published protocols, version/change control, documentation of QA/QC, and links to publications that use historical or contemporary data held in the NPDb. The National Coordinating Office of USA-NPN is developing a suite of standard data products (e.g., quality-controlled raw or summarized status data) and tools (e.g., a new visualization tool released in 2015) to facilitate use and application by a diverse set of data users. This presentation outlines a workflow for the development and validation of spatially gridded phenology products, drawing on recent work related to the Spring Indices now included in two national Indicator systems. In addition, we discuss how we engage observers to collect in-situ data to validate model predictions. Preliminary analyses indicate high fidelity between historical in-situ and modeled observations on a national scale, but with considerable variability at the regional scale. Regions with strong differences between expected and observed data are identified and will be the focus of in-situ data collection campaigns using USA-NPN's Nature's Notebook on-line user interface (www.nn.usanpn.org).

The potential of using Landsat time-series to extract tropical dry forest phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Helmer, E.

2016-12-01

Vegetation phenology is the timing of seasonal developmental stages in plant life cycles. Due to the persistent cloud cover in tropical regions, current studies often use satellite data with high frequency, such as AVHRR and MODIS, to detect vegetation phenology. However, the spatial resolution of these data is from 250 m to 1 km, which does not have enough spatial details and it is difficult to relate to field observations. To produce maps of phenology at a finer spatial resolution, this study explores the feasibility of using Landsat images to detect tropical forest phenology through reconstructing a high-quality, seasonal time-series of images, and tested it in Mona Island, Puerto Rico. First, an automatic method was applied to detect cloud and cloud shadow, and a spatial interpolator was use to retrieve pixels covered by clouds, shadows, and SLC-off gaps. Second, enhanced vegetation index time-series derived from the reconstructed Landsat images were used to detect 11 phenology variables. Detected phenology is consistent with field investigations, and its spatial pattern is consistent with the rainfall distribution on this island. In addition, we may expect that phenology should correlate with forest biophysical attributes, so 47 plots with field measurement of biophysical attributes were used to indirectly validate the phenology product. Results show that phenology variables can explain a lot of variations in biophysical attributes. This study suggests that Landsat time-series has great potential to detect phenology in tropical areas.

Responses of rubber leaf phenology to climatic variations in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, De-Li; Yu, Haiying; Chen, Si-Chong; Ranjitkar, Sailesh; Xu, Jianchu

2017-11-01

The phenology of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) could be influenced by meteorological factors and exhibits significant changes under different geoclimates. In the sub-optimal environment in Xishuangbanna, rubber trees undergo lengthy periods of defoliation and refoliation. The timing of refoliation from budburst to leaf aging could be affected by powdery mildew disease (Oidium heveae), which negatively impacts seed and latex production. Rubber trees are most susceptible to powdery mildew disease at the copper and leaf changing stages. Understanding and predicting leaf phenology of rubber trees are helpful to develop effective means of controlling the disease. This research investigated the effect of several meteorological factors on different leaf phenological stages in a sub-optimal environment for rubber cultivation in Jinghong, Yunnan in Southwest China. Partial least square regression was used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and recorded rubber phenologies from 2003 to 2011. Minimum temperature in December was found to be the critical factor for the leaf phenology development of rubber trees. Comparing the delayed effects of minimum temperature, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sunshine hours were found to advancing leaf phenologies. A comparatively lower minimum temperature in December would facilitate the advancing of leaf phenologies of rubber trees. Higher levels of precipitation in February delayed the light green and the entire process of leaf aging. Delayed leaf phenology was found to be related to severe rubber powdery mildew disease. These results were used to build predictive models that could be applied to early warning systems of rubber powdery mildew disease.

The Plant Phenology Monitoring Design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Jones, Katherine D.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Hufft, Rebecca A.; Jones, Matthew O.; Mazer, Susan J.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Moore, David J. P.;

The plant phenology monitoring design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Jones, Katherine D.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Hufft, Rebecca A.; Jones, Matthew O.; Mazer, Susan J.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Moore, David J. P.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2016-01-01

Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.

The USA National Phenology Network's Model for Collaborative Data Generation and Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosemartin, A.; Lincicome, A.; Denny, E. G.; Marsh, L.; Wilson, B. E.

2010-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. The Network was founded as an NSF-funded Research Coordination Network, for the purpose of fostering collaboration among scientists, policy-makers and the general public to address the challenges posed by global change and its impact on ecosystems and human health. With this mission in mind, the USA-NPN has developed an Information Management System (IMS) to facilitate collaboration and participatory data collection and digitization. The IMS includes components for data storage, such as the National Phenology Database, as well as a Drupal website for information-sharing and data visualization, and a Java application for collection of contemporary observational data. The National Phenology Database is designed to efficiently accommodate large quantities of phenology data and to be flexible to the changing needs of the network. The database allows for the collection, storage and output of phenology data from multiple sources (e.g., partner organizations, researchers and citizen observers), as well as integration with legacy data sets. Participants in the network can submit records (as Drupal content types) for publications, legacy data sets and phenology-related festivals. The USA-NPN’s contemporary phenology data collection effort, Nature’s Notebook also draws on the contributions of participants. Citizen scientists around the country submit data through this Java application (paired with the Drupal site through a shared login) on the life cycle stages of plants and animals in their yards and parks. The North American Bird Phenology Program, now a part of the USA-NPN, also relies on web-based crowdsourcing. Participants in this program are transcribing 6 million scanned paper cards that were collected by observers across the United States

Phenology research for natural resource management in the United States.

PubMed

Enquist, Carolyn A F; Kellermann, Jherime L; Gerst, Katharine L; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J

2014-05-01

Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.

Analytical ice shape predictions for flight in natural icing conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkowitz, Brian M.; Riley, James T.

1988-01-01

LEWICE is an analytical ice prediction code that has been evaluated against icing tunnel data, but on a more limited basis against flight data. Ice shapes predicted by LEWICE is compared with experimental ice shapes accreted on the NASA Lewis Icing Research Aircraft. The flight data selected for comparison includes liquid water content recorded using a hot wire device and droplet distribution data from a laser spectrometer; the ice shape is recorded using stereo photography. The main findings are as follows: (1) An equivalent sand grain roughness correlation different from that used for LEWICE tunnel comparisons must be employed to obtain satisfactory results for flight; (2) Using this correlation and making no other changes in the code, the comparisons to ice shapes accreted in flight are in general as good as the comparisons to ice shapes accreted in the tunnel (as in the case of tunnel ice shapes, agreement is least reliable for large glaze ice shapes at high angles of attack); (3) In some cases comparisons can be somewhat improved by utilizing the code so as to take account of the variation of parameters such as liquid water content, which may vary significantly in flight.

Phenology cameras observing boreal ecosystems of Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltoniemi, Mikko; Böttcher, Kristin; Aurela, Mika; Kolari, Pasi; Tanis, Cemal Melih; Linkosalmi, Maiju; Loehr, John; Metsämäki, Sari; Nadir Arslan, Ali

2016-04-01

Cameras have become useful tools for monitoring seasonality of ecosystems. Low-cost cameras facilitate validation of other measurements and allow extracting some key ecological features and moments from image time series. We installed a network of phenology cameras at selected ecosystem research sites in Finland. Cameras were installed above, on the level, or/and below the canopies. Current network hosts cameras taking time lapse images in coniferous and deciduous forests as well as at open wetlands offering thus possibilities to monitor various phenological and time-associated events and elements. In this poster, we present our camera network and give examples of image series use for research. We will show results about the stability of camera derived color signals, and based on that discuss about the applicability of cameras in monitoring time-dependent phenomena. We will also present results from comparisons between camera-derived color signal time series and daily satellite-derived time series (NVDI, NDWI, and fractional snow cover) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at selected spruce and pine forests and in a wetland. We will discuss the applicability of cameras in supporting phenological observations derived from satellites, by considering the possibility of cameras to monitor both above and below canopy phenology and snow.

Delayed autumn phenology in the Northern Hemisphere is related to change in both climate and spring phenology.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhu, Zaichun; Liu, Yongwen; Liu, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2016-11-01

The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr -1 . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PHENOALP: a new project on phenology in the Western Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremonese, E.

2009-04-01

PHENOALP is a new EU co-funded Interreg Project under the operational programme for cross-border cooperation "Italy-France (Alps-ALCOTRA)" 2007 - 2013, aiming to get a better understanding of phenological changes in the Alps. The major goals of the project are: 1- The implementation of an observation network in the involved territories (i.e. the Aosta Valley and the Savoies in the Western Alps); 2- The definition of a common observation strategy and common protocols; 3- The involvement of local community members (e.g. through schools) in the observation activities as a way to increase the awareness on the issue of the effects of climate change. Project leader is the Environmental Protection Agency of Aosta Valley (ARPA Valle d'Aosta - IT) and the partners are the Research Center on High Altitude Ecosystem (CREA - FR), Mont Avic Regional Parc (IT), Bauges Massif Regional Natural Parc (FR) and the Protected Area Service of Aosta Valley (IT). Project activities are: 1. Pheno-plantes: definition of common observation protocols (e.g. field observation and webcams) of different alpine species (trees and herbaceous) and implementation of the observation network; analysis of the relations between climate and phenological events; application and evaluation of phenological models. 2. Pheno-detection: remote sensing of European larch and high elevation pastures with MODIS data; multitemporal analysis (2000-2011) of phenological variations in the Western Alps. 3. Pheno-flux: analysis of the relation between the seasonal and interannual variability of plant phenology and productivity, assessed measuring CO2 fluxes (eddy-covariance technique), radiometric indexes and phenological events at specific (European larch stand and alpine pastures) monitoring site. 4. Pheno-zoo: definition of common observation protocols for the phenology of animal taxa (birds, mammals, amphibians and insects) along altitudinal gradients; implementation of the observation network. 5. Inter

Hydration index--a better parameter for explaining small molecule hydration in inhibition of ice recrystallization.

PubMed

Tam, Roger Y; Ferreira, Sandra S; Czechura, Pawel; Chaytor, Jennifer L; Ben, Robert N

2008-12-24

Several simple mono- and disaccharides have been assessed for their ability to inhibit ice recrystallization. Two carbohydrates were found to be effective recrystallization inhibitors. D-galactose (1) was the best monosaccharide and D-melibiose (5) was the most active disaccharide. The ability of each carbohydrate to inhibit ice growth was correlated to its respective hydration number reported in the literature. A hydration number reflects the number of tightly bound water molecules to the carbohydrate and is a function of carbohydrate stereochemistry. It was discovered that using the absolute hydration number of a carbohydrate does not allow one to accurately predict its ability to inhibit ice recrystallization. Consequently, we have defined a hydration index in which the hydration number is divided by the molar volume of the carbohydrate. This new parameter not only takes into account the number of water molecules tightly bound to a carbohydrate but also the size or volume of a particular solute and ultimately the concentration of hydrated water molecules. The hydration index of both mono- and disaccharides correlates well with experimentally measured RI activity. C-Linked derivatives of the monosaccharides appear to have RI activity comparable to that of their O-linked saccharides but a more thorough investigation is required. The relationship between carbohydrate concentration and RI activity was shown to be noncolligative and a 0.022 M solution of D-galactose (1) and C-linked galactose derivative (10) inhibited recrystallization as well as a 3% DMSO solution. The carbohydrates examined in this study did not possess any thermal hysteresis activity (selective depression of freezing point relative to melting point) or dynamic ice shaping. As such, we propose that they are inhibiting recrystallization at the interface between bulk water and the quasi liquid layer (a semiordered interface between ice and bulk water) by disrupting the preordering of water.

Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegre, N.; Gaertner, B. A.; Fernandez, R.

2016-12-01

The timing of phenological parameters such as spring onset and autumn senescence are important controls on the partitioning of water into evaporation and streamflow. Climate largely drives seasonal characteristics of plants and changes in phenological timing can be used to detect the impacts of climate change on water balance controls. However, limited phenological research is available for regions dominated by forest cover such as the central Appalachian Mountains region of the United States. To quantify the impacts of climate change on phenological timing and streamflow in this region, we used GIMMS AVHRR NDVI 13g data from 1982-2012 and the TIMESAT program to extract seasonality parameters. Results show that spring onset has advanced by 9 days, autumn senescence has been delayed by 11 days, and growing season has lengthened by 20 days. Above 500 m elevation, spring onset occurs 2-3 days later; fall senescence arrives 1-2 days earlier, and growing season shortens by 3-5 days. Streamflow has decreased during the growing season over the 31-year study period throughout the region, with the most pronounced effects for the Tennessee River watershed, the southernmost reach of the study area. The elevation patterns are in general agreement with Hopkins law, which states a one-day delay in spring onset for every 30-meter increase in elevation. Streamflow patterns suggest that the southern central Appalachian region is sensitive to changes in climate and are becoming drier, having important implications for drinking water supply, forest ecosystem management, ecosystem services including drinking water supply, and overall forest health.

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

Continuous monitoring of seasonal phenological development by BBCH code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cornelius, Christine; Estrella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette

2010-05-01

Phenology, the science of recurrent seasonal natural events, is a proxy for changes in ecosystems due to recent global climate change. Phenological studies mostly deal with data considering the beginning of different development stages e.g. budburst or the beginning of flowering. Just few studies focus on the end of phenological stages, such as the end of flowering or seed dispersal. Information about the entire development cycle of plants, including data of the end of stages, are received by observing plants according to the extended BBCH-scale (MEIER 1997). The scale is a standardized growth stage key which allows a less labor intensive, weekly observation rhythm. Every week frequencies of all occurring phenological stages are noted. These frequencies then constitute the basis to interpolate the development of each phenological stage, even though it was not being seen during field work. Due to the lack of studies using this kind of key for observations over the entire development cycle there is no common methodology to analyze the data. So our objective was to find a method of analysis, with which onset dates as well as endpoints of each development stage could be defined. Three different methods of analysis were compared. Results show that there is no significant difference in onset dates of phenological stages between all methods tested. However, the method of pooled pre/post stage development seems to be most suitable for climate change studies, followed by the method of cumulative stage development and the method of weighted plant development.

Communicating Research Through Student Involvement in Phenological Investigations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Kopplin, M.; Gazal, R. M.; Robin, J. H.; Boger, R. A.

2011-12-01

Phenology plays a key role in the environment and ecosystem. Primary and secondary students around the world have been collecting vegetation phenology data and contributing to ongoing scientific investigations. They have increased research capacity by increasing spatial coverage of ground observations that can be useful for validation of remotely sensed data. The green-up and green-down phenology measurement protocols developed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) as part of the Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) program, have been used in more than 250 schools in over 20 countries. In addition to contributing their data, students have conducted their own investigations and presented them at science fairs and symposiums, and international conferences. An elementary school student in Alaska conducted a comprehensive study on the green-down rates of native and introduced trees and shrubs. Her project earned her a one-year college scholarship at UAF. Students from the Model Secondary School for the Deaf in Washington, D. C. and from the Indiana School for the Deaf collaborated on a comparative green-up study, and were chosen to present at an international conference where students from more than 20 countries participated. Similarly, students in Thailand presented at national conferences, their studies such as "The Relationship between Environmental Conditions and Green-down of Teak Trees (Tectona grandis L.)" at Roong Aroon School, Bangkok and "The Comparison of Budburst and Green-up of Leab Trees (Ficus infectoria Roxb.) at Rob Wiang and Mae Khao Tom Sub-district in Chiang Rai Province". Some challenges in engaging students in phenological studies include the mismatch in timing of the start and end of the plant growing season with that of the school year in northern latitudes and the need for scientists and teachers to work with students to ensure accurate measurements. However these are outweighed by benefits to the scientists

Plant phenological synchrony increases under rapid within-spring warming.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Tang, Yanhong; Chen, Jin

2016-05-05

Phenological synchrony influences many ecological processes. Recent climate change has altered the synchrony of phenology, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms. Here using in situ phenological records from Europe, we found that the standard deviation (SD, as a measure of synchrony) of first leafing day (FLD) and the SD of first flowering day (FFD) among local plants were significantly smaller in the years and/or in the regions with a more rapid within-spring warming speed (WWS, the linear slope of the daily mean temperature against the days during spring, in (o)C/day) with correlation coefficients of -0.75 and -0.48 for FLD and -0.55 and -0.23 for FFD. We further found that the SDs of temperature sensitivity of local plants were smaller under the rapid WWS conditions with correlation coefficients of -0.46 and -0.33 for FLD and FFD respectively. This study provides the first evidence that the within-season rate of change of the temperature but not the magnitude determines plant phenological synchrony. It implies that temporally, the asymmetric seasonal climatic warming may decrease the synchrony via increasing WWS, especially in arctic regions; spatially, plants in coastal and low latitude areas with low WWS would have more diverse spring phenological traits.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Joint Model and Parameter Dimension Reduction for Bayesian Inversion Applied to an Ice Sheet Flow Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghattas, O.; Petra, N.; Cui, T.; Marzouk, Y.; Benjamin, P.; Willcox, K.

2016-12-01

Model-based projections of the dynamics of the polar ice sheets play a central role in anticipating future sea level rise. However, a number of mathematical and computational challenges place significant barriers on improving predictability of these models. One such challenge is caused by the unknown model parameters (e.g., in the basal boundary conditions) that must be inferred from heterogeneous observational data, leading to an ill-posed inverse problem and the need to quantify uncertainties in its solution. In this talk we discuss the problem of estimating the uncertainty in the solution of (large-scale) ice sheet inverse problems within the framework of Bayesian inference. Computing the general solution of the inverse problem--i.e., the posterior probability density--is intractable with current methods on today's computers, due to the expense of solving the forward model (3D full Stokes flow with nonlinear rheology) and the high dimensionality of the uncertain parameters (which are discretizations of the basal sliding coefficient field). To overcome these twin computational challenges, it is essential to exploit problem structure (e.g., sensitivity of the data to parameters, the smoothing property of the forward model, and correlations in the prior). To this end, we present a data-informed approach that identifies low-dimensional structure in both parameter space and the forward model state space. This approach exploits the fact that the observations inform only a low-dimensional parameter space and allows us to construct a parameter-reduced posterior. Sampling this parameter-reduced posterior still requires multiple evaluations of the forward problem, therefore we also aim to identify a low dimensional state space to reduce the computational cost. To this end, we apply a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach to approximate the state using a low-dimensional manifold constructed using ``snapshots'' from the parameter reduced posterior, and the discrete

Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

2015-12-01

The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

PERPHECLIM ACCAF Project - Perennial fruit crops and forest phenology evolution facing climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Audergon, Jean Marc; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Anger, Christel; Bonhomme, Marc; Chuine, Isabelle; Davi, Hendrik; Delzon, Sylvain; Duchêne, Eric; Legave, Jean Michel; Raynal, Hélène; Pichot, Christian; Van Leeuwen, Cornelis; Perpheclim Team

2015-04-01

Phenology is a bio-indicator of climate evolutions. Measurements of phenological stages on perennial species provide actually significant illustrations and assessments of the impact of climate change. Phenology is also one of the main key characteristics of the capacity of adaptation of perennial species, generating questions about their consequences on plant growth and development or on fruit quality. Predicting phenology evolution and adaptative capacities of perennial species need to override three main methodological limitations: 1) existing observations and associated databases are scattered and sometimes incomplete, rendering difficult implementation of multi-site study of genotype-environment interaction analyses; 2) there are not common protocols to observe phenological stages; 3) access to generic phenological models platforms is still very limited. In this context, the PERPHECLIM project, which is funded by the Adapting Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Change Meta-Program (ACCAF) from INRA (French National Institute of Agronomic Research), has the objective to develop the necessary infrastructure at INRA level (observatories, information system, modeling tools) to enable partners to study the phenology of various perennial species (grapevine, fruit trees and forest trees). Currently the PERPHECLIM project involves 27 research units in France. The main activities currently developed are: define protocols and observation forms to observe phenology for various species of interest for the project; organizing observation training; develop generic modeling solutions to simulate phenology (Phenological Modelling Platform and modelling platform solutions); support in building research projects at national and international level; develop environment/genotype observation networks for fruit trees species; develop an information system managing data and documentation concerning phenology. Finally, PERPHECLIM project aims to build strong collaborations with public

Spatial and temporal variability of landscape phenology based on EVI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunkár, Márta; Szenyán, Ildikó

2013-04-01

Increasing number of climate change studies in the 1990s evolved the interest in phenological research and thus the demand for phenological observations has increased substantially. Mainly, rising air temperatures in recent decades and the clear phenological response of plants and animals to this increase have caused the growing interest. Monitoring phenological phases is carried out in many European countries. Each country has its own database, in some cases still on paper, mostly on databank-systems, going back in many cases to the 1950s. Recently remote sensing phenology, the use of satellites to track phenological events can complement or in some cases substitute ground observation networks. Satellites provide a unique perspective of the planet and allow for regular, even daily, monitoring of the entire global land surface. Because the most frequently used satellite sensors for monitoring phenological events have relatively large "footprints" on the land surface, they gather data about entire ecosystems or regions rather than individual species. Remote sensing phenology can reveal broad-scale phenological trends that would be difficult, if not impossible, to detect from the ground, and because data collection by satellite sensors can be standardized, the data are reliably objective. Obviously remote sensing data are not the traditional phenological phases but they are reflectance (ρ) in different spectral channels. The status of the vegetation is in close connection with its reflectance especially in the near infrared and red spectrums. In our study we used "Enhanced Vegetation Index" (EVI) to characterize the status of vegetation on a sample area with the size of 5 km x 5 km inhomogeneous terrain NW corner: 46o 19' 33,6"N, 17o 42' 38,52"E , NE corner: 46o 19' 33,6"N; 17o 46' 15,96"E; SW corner: 46o 17' 3,84"N; 17o 41' 50,28"E, SE corner: 46o 17' 3,84"N; 17o 45'27"E. EVI data are available from MODIS placed at Terra and Aqua satellites. High resolution (250m x

Satellite-based phenology detection in broadleaf forests in South-Western Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Gourav; Buras, Allan; Menzel, Annette

2016-04-01

Many techniques exist for extracting phenological information from time series of satellite data. However, there have been only a few successful attempts to temporarily match satellite-derived observations with ground based phenological observations (Fisher et al., 2006; Hamunyela et al., 2013; Galiano et al., 2015). Such studies are primarily plagued with problems relating to shorter time series of satellite data including spatial and temporal resolution issues. A great challenge is to correlate spatially continuous and pixel-based satellite information with spatially discontinuous and point-based, mostly species-specific, ground observations of phenology. Moreover, the minute differences in phenology observed by ground volunteers might not be sufficient to produce changes in satellite-measured reflectance of vegetation, which also exposes the difference in the definitions of phenology (Badeck et al., 2004; White et al., 2014). In this study Start of Season (SOS) was determined for broadleaf forests at a site in south-western Germany using MODIS-sensor time series of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the years covering 2001 to 2013. The NDVI time series raster data was masked for broadleaf forests using Corine Land Cover dataset, filtered and corrected for snow and cloud contaminations, smoothed with a Gaussian filter and interpolated to daily values. Several SOS techniques cited in literature, namely thresholds of amplitudes (20%, 50%, 60% and 75%), rates of change (1st, 2nd and 3rd derivative) and delayed moving average (DMA) were tested for determination of satellite SOS. The different satellite SOS were then compared with a species-rich ground based phenology information (e.g. understory leaf unfolding, broad leaf unfolding and greening of evergreen tree species). Working with all the pixels at a finer resolution, it is seen that the temporal trends in understory and broad leaf species are well captured. Initial analyses show promising

The USA National Phenology Network; taking the pulse of our planet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weltzin, Jake F.

2011-01-01

People have tracked phenology for centuries and for the most practical reasons: it helped them know when to hunt and fish, when to plant and harvest crops, and when to navigate waterways. Now phenology is being used as a tool to assess climate change and its effects on both natural and modified ecosystems. How is the timing of events in plant and animal life cycles, like flowering or migration, responding to climate change? And how are those responses, in turn, affecting people and ecosystems? The USA National Phenology Network (the Network) is working to answer these questions for science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and their relationship to environmental change. The Network is a consortium of organizations and individuals that collect, share, and use phenology data, models, and related information to enable scientists, resource managers, and the public to adapt in response to changing climates and environments. In addition, the Network encourages people of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology as a way to discover and explore the nature and pace of our dynamic world. The National Coordinating Office (NCO) of the Network is a resource center that facilitates and encourages widespread collection, integration, and sharing of phenology data and related information (for example, meteorological and hydrological data). The NCO develops and promotes standardized methods for field data collection and maintains several online user interfaces for data upload and download, as well as data exploration, visualization, and analysis. The NCO also facilitates basic and applied research related to phenology, the development of decision-support tools for resource managers and planners, and the design of educational and outreach materials

First Plant Phenological Records in the Carpathians and their Possible Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tekusova, M.; Horecká, V.; Mikulová, K.

2009-04-01

Phenological observations have a long history. The long time series come from Korea and some other parts of Asia, while wine harvest dates form the oldest phenological data sets in Europe. One of them started as early as 1457 year in Vienna, i.e. on the border of the Carpathian region. However, the first systematic phenological observations started in the south Carpathians almost four hundred years later following the establishment of the phenological network in Austria and later in the Hungarian Kingdom. A medical doctor P. Wierbitzky did first phenological observations in the Carpathian region in the beginning of thirties of the nineteenth century in Orawicza. The first systematic observations and records of plant development in this region are connected with the establishment of Austrian Institute for Meteorology and Geomagnetism since 1851. Although the historical significance of these observations is high, the data recorded are of lower quality, frequently interrupted and fragmented. Further development of phenological observations came with the introduction of the methodology of the observations introduced by Karl Fritsch in the beginning of the sixties of the nineteenth century mainly with the establishment of Hungarian Meteorological Service in 1871. These historical data were recorded and published in the yearbooks and, despite of the fragmentary character of the records, they are usable for some evaluations. This article brings the description of the data sets of systematic phenological network in the Carpathian region and considers some possible phenological evaluations. The phenological observations were done in some cases at the same localities as the climatologic observations but the number of phenological stations was quite lower in several years. The historical plant phenological records were based in many cases on the observation of four phenological phases: leafing, flowering, ripening and fall of leaves. Both the volume and the quality of the

Intra- and interspecific variation in tropical tree and liana phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohlman, S.; Park, J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Rifai, S. W.; Dandois, J. P.

2017-12-01

Phenology is a critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical tree and liana phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. Spectral, texture, and image information was extracted from the UAV images for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm to predict percent leaf and branch cover. We obtained the species identities of 2000 crowns in the images via field mapping. The objectives of this study are to (1) determined if machine learning algorithms, applied to UAV images, can effectively quantify changes in leaf cover, which we term "deciduousness; (2) determine how liana cover effects deciduousness and (3) test how well UAV-derived deciduousness patterns match satellite-derived temporal patterns. Machine learning algorithms trained on a variety of image parameters could effectively determine leaf cover, despite variation in lighting and viewing angles. Crowns with higher liana cover have less overall deciduousness (tree + liana together) than crowns with lower liana cover. Individual crown deciduousness, summed over all crowns measured in the 50-ha plot, showed a similar seasonal pattern as MODIS EVI composited over 10 years. However

Shenandoah National Park Phenology Project-Weather data collection, description, and processing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, John W.; Aiello, Danielle P.; Osborne, Jesse D.

2010-01-01

The weather data described in this document are being collected as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study of changes in Shenandoah National Park (SNP) landscape phenology (Jones and Osbourne, 2008). Phenology is the study of the timing of biological events, such as annual plant flowering and seasonal bird migration. These events are partially driven by changes in temperature and precipitation; therefore, phenology studies how these events may reflect changes in climate. Landscape phenology is the study of changes in biological events over broad areas and assemblages of vegetation. To study climate-change relations over broad areas (at landscape scale), the timing and amount of annual tree leaf emergence, maximum foliage, and leaf fall for forested areas are of interest. To better link vegetation changes with climate, weather data are necessary. This report documents weather-station data collection and processing procedures used in the Shenandoah National Park Phenology Project.

Ice particle mass-dimensional parameter retrieval and uncertainty analysis using an Optimal Estimation framework applied to in situ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhuocan; Mace, Jay; Avalone, Linnea; Wang, Zhien

2015-04-01

The extreme variability of ice particle habits in precipitating clouds affects our understanding of these cloud systems in every aspect (i.e. radiation transfer, dynamics, precipitation rate, etc) and largely contributes to the uncertainties in the model representation of related processes. Ice particle mass-dimensional power law relationships, M=a*(D ^ b), are commonly assumed in models and retrieval algorithms, while very little knowledge exists regarding the uncertainties of these M-D parameters in real-world situations. In this study, we apply Optimal Estimation (OE) methodology to infer ice particle mass-dimensional relationship from ice particle size distributions and bulk water contents independently measured on board the University of Wyoming King Air during the Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study (CAMPS). We also utilize W-band radar reflectivity obtained on the same platform (King Air) offering a further constraint to this ill-posed problem (Heymsfield et al. 2010). In addition to the values of retrieved M-D parameters, the associated uncertainties are conveniently acquired in the OE framework, within the limitations of assumed Gaussian statistics. We find, given the constraints provided by the bulk water measurement and in situ radar reflectivity, that the relative uncertainty of mass-dimensional power law prefactor (a) is approximately 80% and the relative uncertainty of exponent (b) is 10-15%. With this level of uncertainty, the forward model uncertainty in radar reflectivity would be on the order of 4 dB or a factor of approximately 2.5 in ice water content. The implications of this finding are that inferences of bulk water from either remote or in situ measurements of particle spectra cannot be more certain than this when the mass-dimensional relationships are not known a priori which is almost never the case.

PEP725 Pan European Phenological Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, E.; Lipa, W.; Ungersböck, M.; Zach-Hermann, S.

2012-04-01

PEP725 is a 5 years project with the main object to promote and facilitate phenological research by delivering a pan European phenological database with an open, unrestricted data access for science, research and education. PEP725 is funded by EUMETNET (the network of European meteorological services), ZAMG and the Austrian ministry for science & research bm:w_f. So far 16 European national meteorological services and 7 partners from different nati-onal phenological network operators have joined PEP725. The data access is very easy via web-access from the homepage www.pep725.eu. Ha-ving accepted the PEP725 data policy and registry the data download can be done by different criteria as for instance the selection of a specific plant or all data from one country. At present more than 300 000 new records are available in the PEP725 data-base coming from 31 European countries and from 8150 stations. For some more sta-tions (154) META data (location and data holder) are provided. Links to the network operators and data owners are also on the webpage in case you have more sophisticated questions about the data. Another objective of PEP725 is to bring together network-operators and scientists by organizing workshops. In April 2012 the second of these workshops will take place on the premises of ZAMG. Invited speakers will give presentations spanning the whole study area of phenology starting from observations to modelling. Quality checking is also a big issue. At the moment we study the literature to find ap-propriate methods.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

PubMed

Thackeray, Stephen J; Henrys, Peter A; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R; Botham, Marc S; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G; Jones, Ian D; Leech, David I; Mackay, Eleanor B; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J; Brereton, Tom M; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Elliott, J Malcolm; Hall, Stephen J G; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Høye, Toke T; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Pemberton, Josephine M; Sparks, Tim H; Thompson, Paul M; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J; Wanless, Sarah

2016-07-14

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Topography-mediated controls on local vegetation phenology estimated from MODIS vegetation index

Treesearch

Taehee Hwang; Conghe Song; James Vose; Lawrence Band

2011-01-01

Forest canopy phenology is an important constraint on annual water and carbon budgets, and responds to regional interannual climate variation. In steep terrain, there are complex spatial variations in phenology due to topographic influences on microclimate, community composition, and available soil moisture. In this study, we investigate spatial patterns of phenology...

The USA National Phenology Network: A national science and monitoring program for understanding climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J.

2009-04-01

Patterns of phenology for plants and animals control ecosystem processes, determine land surface properties, control biosphere-atmosphere interactions, and affect food production, health, conservation, and recreation. Although phenological data and models have applications related to scientific research, education and outreach, agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management, until recently there was no coordinated effort to understand phenology at the national scale in the United States. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org), established in 2007, is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to establish a national science and monitoring initiative focused on phenology. The first year of operation of USA-NPN produced many new phenology products and venues for phenology research and citizen involvement. Products include a new web-site (www.usanpn.org) that went live in June 2008; the web-site includes a tool for on-line data entry, and serves as a clearinghouse for products and information to facilitate research and communication related to phenology. The new core Plant Phenology Program includes profiles for 200 vetted local, regional, and national plant species with descriptions and (BBCH-consistent) monitoring protocols, as well as templates for addition of new species. A partnership program describes how other monitoring networks can engage with USA-NPN to collect, manage or disseminate phenological information for science, health, education, management or predictive service applications. Project BudBurst, a USA-NPN field campaign for citizen scientists, went live in February 2008, and now includes over 3000 registered observers monitoring 4000 plants across the nation. For 2009 and beyond, we will initiate a new Wildlife Phenology Program, create an on-line clearing-house for phenology education and outreach, strengthen

Changes in Winegrape Phenology and Relationships with Climate and Wine Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, G.

2004-12-01

During the phenological cycle of winegrapes, the timing of specific events and the length between the events are critical to the production of quality fruit and wine. In addition, winegrapes are typically grown in climates that optimize the ripening characteristics for specific varieties. These narrow geographical zones place the production of wine at a greater risk from climate variability and change than other more broadly based agricultural crops. To analyze the relationships between phenology, climate, and wine quality, data from three prominent regions in France-Bordeaux, Burgundy, and Champagne-are used. Long-term phenological data for bud break, flowering, veraison, and harvest dates for Pinot Noir in Burgundy and Champagne and for Merlot and Cabernet Sauvignon are examined for trends, climatic influences, and the general effects on wine quality. The results reveal significantly earlier events (6-14 days) with shorter intervals between events (5-12 days) across all regions. In addition, warmer growing seasons have clearly influenced these changes in the phenological cycle of winegrapes in France. Furthermore, changes in phenology and growing season temperatures are related to better fruit composition and increases in vintage ratings over the last 30-40 years. However, some of the warmest growing seasons, with very early phenology and short intervals, have resulted in lower quality. The results point to potential threshold issues whereby any further warming will likely compromise the phenological characteristics, ripening profiles, and wine quality of the varieties currently being grown.

A basal stress parameterization for modeling landfast ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemieux, Jean-François; Tremblay, L. Bruno; Dupont, Frédéric; Plante, Mathieu; Smith, Gregory C.; Dumont, Dany

2015-04-01

Current large-scale sea ice models represent very crudely or are unable to simulate the formation, maintenance and decay of coastal landfast ice. We present a simple landfast ice parameterization representing the effect of grounded ice keels. This parameterization is based on bathymetry data and the mean ice thickness in a grid cell. It is easy to implement and can be used for two-thickness and multithickness category models. Two free parameters are used to determine the critical thickness required for large ice keels to reach the bottom and to calculate the basal stress associated with the weight of the ridge above hydrostatic balance. A sensitivity study was conducted and demonstrates that the parameter associated with the critical thickness has the largest influence on the simulated landfast ice area. A 6 year (2001-2007) simulation with a 20 km resolution sea ice model was performed. The simulated landfast ice areas for regions off the coast of Siberia and for the Beaufort Sea were calculated and compared with data from the National Ice Center. With optimal parameters, the basal stress parameterization leads to a slightly shorter landfast ice season but overall provides a realistic seasonal cycle of the landfast ice area in the East Siberian, Laptev and Beaufort Seas. However, in the Kara Sea, where ice arches between islands are key to the stability of the landfast ice, the parameterization consistently leads to an underestimation of the landfast area.

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology.

PubMed

Wang, Tao; Ottlé, Catherine; Peng, Shushi; Janssens, Ivan A; Lin, Xin; Poulter, Benjamin; Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe

2014-05-01

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests.

PubMed

Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Dail, D Bryan; Lee, John T; Munger, J William; O'keefe, John

2009-03-01

Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO(2) exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux sites. All phenological measures, including CO(2) source-sink transition dates, could be well predicted on the basis of a simple two-parameter spring warming model, indicating good potential for improving the representation of phenological transitions and their dynamic responsiveness to climate variability in land surface models. The date at which canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity reached a threshold value of 12 micromol m(-2) s(-1) was better correlated with spring and annual flux integrals than were either deciduous or coniferous bud burst dates. For all phenological indicators, earlier spring onset consistently, but not always significantly, resulted in higher gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) for both seasonal (spring months, April-June) and annual flux integrals. The increase in RE was less than that in GPP; depending on the phenological indicator used, a one-day advance in spring onset increased springtime net ecosystem productivity (NEP) by 2-4 g C m(-2) day(-1). In general, we could not detect significant differences between the two forest types in response to earlier spring, although the response to earlier spring was generally more pronounced for Harvard Forest than for Howland Forest, suggesting that future climate warming may favor deciduous species over coniferous species, at least in this region. The effect of earlier spring tended to be about twice as large when annual rather than springtime flux integrals were considered. This result is suggestive of both immediate and lagged effects of earlier spring onset on ecosystem C cycling, perhaps as a result of accelerated N cycling

Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the conterminous United States

DOE PAGES

Li, Xuecao; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R.; ...

2016-12-18

The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003–2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends latermore » (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days.Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6–6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. In conclusion, the quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology.« less

Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the conterminous United States.

PubMed

Li, Xuecao; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R; Mao, Jiafu; Li, Xiaoma; Li, Wenyu

2017-07-01

The influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology is gaining considerable attention due to its implications for human health, cycling of carbon and other nutrients in Earth system. In this study, we examined the relationship between change in vegetation phenology and urban size, an indicator of urbanization, for the conterminous United States. We studied more than 4500 urban clusters of varying size to determine the impact of urbanization on plant phenology, with the aids of remotely sensed observations since 2003-2012. We found that phenology cycle (changes in vegetation greenness) in urban areas starts earlier (start of season, SOS) and ends later (end of season, EOS), resulting in a longer growing season length (GSL), when compared to the respective surrounding urban areas. The average difference of GSL between urban and rural areas over all vegetation types, considered in this study, is about 9 days. Also, the extended GSL in urban area is consistent among different climate zones in the United States, whereas their magnitudes are varying across regions. We found that a tenfold increase in urban size could result in an earlier SOS of about 1.3 days and a later EOS of around 2.4 days. As a result, the GSL could be extended by approximately 3.6 days with a range of 1.6-6.5 days for 25th ~ 75th quantiles, with a median value of about 2.1 days. For different vegetation types, the phenology response to urbanization, as defined by GSL, ranges from 1 to 4 days. The quantitative relationship between phenology and urbanization is of great use for developing improved models of vegetation phenology dynamics under future urbanization, and for developing change indicators to assess the impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Remote sensing data assimilation for a prognostic phenology model

Treesearch

R. Stockli; T. Rutishauser; D. Dragoni; J. O' Keefe; P. E. Thornton; M. Jolly; L. Lu; A. S. Denning

2008-01-01

Predicting the global carbon and water cycle requires a realistic representation of vegetation phenology in climate models. However most prognostic phenology models are not yet suited for global applications, and diagnostic satellite data can be uncertain and lack predictive power. We present a framework for data assimilation of Fraction of Photosynthetically Active...

Solid-liquid interfacial free energy of ice Ih, ice Ic, and ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water via the capillary wave method.

PubMed

Ambler, Michael; Vorselaars, Bart; Allen, Michael P; Quigley, David

2017-02-21

We apply the capillary wave method, based on measurements of fluctuations in a ribbon-like interfacial geometry, to determine the solid-liquid interfacial free energy for both polytypes of ice I and the recently proposed ice 0 within a mono-atomic model of water. We discuss various choices for the molecular order parameter, which distinguishes solid from liquid, and demonstrate the influence of this choice on the interfacial stiffness. We quantify the influence of discretisation error when sampling the interfacial profile and the limits on accuracy imposed by the assumption of quasi one-dimensional geometry. The interfacial free energies of the two ice I polytypes are indistinguishable to within achievable statistical error and the small ambiguity which arises from the choice of order parameter. In the case of ice 0, we find that the large surface unit cell for low index interfaces constrains the width of the interfacial ribbon such that the accuracy of results is reduced. Nevertheless, we establish that the interfacial free energy of ice 0 at its melting temperature is similar to that of ice I under the same conditions. The rationality of a core-shell model for the nucleation of ice I within ice 0 is questioned within the context of our results.

The Timing of Arctic Sea Ice Advance and Retreat as an Indicator of Ice-Dependent Marine Mammal Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, H. L.; Laidre, K. L.

2013-12-01

days/decade, with steeper trends in the Barents Sea. Thus the season of sparse sea-ice coverage is lengthening by about 2 weeks/decade, or 6 weeks over the period of record. The trends in all 11 regions are statistically significant. The dates of sea-ice retreat in spring and advance in fall are negatively correlated: an early spring retreat tends to be followed by a late fall advance, and vice-versa. This is a manifestation of the ice-albedo feedback: with an early sea-ice retreat, the ocean has more time to absorb heat from the sun. The extra heat is stored in the upper ocean through the summer, and must be released to the atmosphere in the fall before sea ice can begin to form, thus delaying fall freeze-up. This relationship gives some predictive power to the date of fall sea-ice advance, given the date of spring retreat. Changes have been reported in the seasonal distribution of polar bears, walruses, seals, and whales in the Arctic. We are developing metrics for potential use by the U.S. National Climate Assessment based on the timing of sea-ice advance and retreat, to be used as indicators of ice-dependent marine mammal habitat. Future work will examine connections between the phenology of Arctic marine mammals and the sea-ice indicators.

Investigation of land ice-ocean interaction with a fully coupled ice-ocean model: 2. Sensitivity to external forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Hallberg, R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2012-06-01

A coupled ice stream-ice shelf-ocean cavity model is used to assess the sensitivity of the coupled system to far-field ocean temperatures, varying from 0.0 to 1.8°C, as well as sensitivity to the parameters controlling grounded ice flow. A response to warming is seen in grounding line retreat and grounded ice loss that cannot be inferred from the response of integrated melt rates alone. This is due to concentrated thinning at the ice shelf lateral margin, and to processes that contribute to this thinning. Parameters controlling the flow of grounded ice have a strong influence on the response to sub-ice shelf melting, but this influence is not seen until several years after an initial perturbation in temperatures. The simulated melt rates are on the order of that observed for Pine Island Glacier in the 1990s. However, retreat rates are much slower, possibly due to unrepresented bedrock features.

[Differences of vegetation phenology monitoring by remote sensing based on different spectral vegetation indices.

PubMed

Zuo, Lu; Wang, Huan Jiong; Liu, Rong Gao; Liu, Yang; Shang, Rong

2018-02-01

Vegetation phenology is a comprehensive indictor for the responses of terrestrial ecosystem to climatic and environmental changes. Remote sensing spectrum has been widely used in the extraction of vegetation phenology information. However, there are many differences between phenology extracted by remote sensing and site observations, with their physical meaning remaining unclear. We selected one tile of MODIS data in northeastern China (2000-2014) to examine the SOS and EOS differences derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the simple ratio vegetation index (SR) based on both the red and near-infrared bands. The results showed that there were significant differences between NDVI-phenology and SR-phenology. SOS derived from NDVI averaged 18.9 days earlier than that from SR. EOS derived from NDVI averaged 19.0 days later than from SR. NDVI-phenology had a longer growing season. There were significant differences in the inter-annual variation of phenology from NDVI and SR. More than 20% of the pixel SOS and EOS derived from NDVI and SR showed the opposite temporal trend. These results caused by the seasonal curve characteristics and noise resistance differences of NDVI and SR. The observed data source of NDVI and SR were completely consistent, only the mathematical expressions were different, but phenology results were significantly different. Our results indicated that vegetation phenology monitoring by remote sensing is highly dependent on the mathematical expression of vegetation index. How to establish a reliable method for extracting vegetation phenology by remote sensing needs further research.

Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.; Walker, G. K.

2015-01-01

The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Andrew D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions.A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

Monitoring Crop Phenology and Growth Stages from Space: Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, F.; Anderson, M. C.; Mladenova, I. E.; Kustas, W. P.; Alfieri, J. G.

2014-12-01

Crop growth stages in concert with weather and soil moisture conditions can have a significant impact on crop yields. In the U.S., crop growth stages and conditions are reported by farmers at the county level. These reports are somewhat subjective and fluctuate between different reporters, locations and times. Remote sensing data provide an alternative approach to monitoring crop growth over large areas in a more consistent and quantitative way. In the recent years, remote sensing data have been used to detect vegetation phenology at 1-km spatial resolution globally. However, agricultural applications at field scale require finer spatial resolution remote sensing data. Landsat (30-m) data have been successfully used for agricultural applications. There are many medium resolution sensors available today or in near future. These include Landsat, SPOT, RapidEye, ASTER and future Sentinel-2 etc. Approaches have been developed in the past several years to integrate remote sensing data from different sensors which may have different sensor characteristics, and spatial and temporal resolutions. This allows us opportunities today to map crop growth stages and conditions using dense time-series remote sensing at field scales. However, remotely sensed phenology (or phenological metrics) is normally derived based on the mathematical functions of the time-series data. The phenological metrics are determined by either identifying inflection (curvature) points or some pre-defined thresholds in the remote sensing phenology algorithms. Furthermore, physiological crop growth stages may not be directly correlated to the remotely sensed phenology. The relationship between remotely sensed phenology and crop growth stages is likely to vary for specific crop types and varieties, growing stages, conditions and even locations. In this presentation, we will examine the relationship between remotely sensed phenology and crop growth stages using in-situ measurements from Fluxnet sites and

MODIS phenology image service ArcMap toolbox

USGS Publications Warehouse

Talbert, Colin; Kern, Tim J.; Morisette, Jeff; Brown, Don; James, Kevin

2013-01-01

Seasonal change is important to consider when managing conservation areas at landscape scales. The study of such patterns throughout the year is referred to as phenology. Recurring life-cycle events that are initiated and driven by environmental factors include animal migration and plant flowering. Phenological events capture public attention, such as fall color change in deciduous forests, the first flowering in spring, and for those with allergies, the start of the pollen season. These events can affect our daily lives, provide clues to help understand and manage ecosystems, and provide evidence of how climate variability can affect the natural cycle of plants and animals. Phenological observations can be gathered at a range of scales, from plots smaller than an acre to landscapes of hundreds to thousands of acres. Linking these observations to diverse disciplines such as evolutionary biology or climate sciences can help further research in species and ecosystem responses to climate change scenarios at appropriate scales. A cooperative study between the National Park Service (NPS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been exploring how satellite information can be used to summarize phenological patterns observed at the park or landscape scale and how those summaries can be presented to both park managers and visitors. This study specifically addressed seasonal changes in plants, including the onset of growth, photosynthesis in the spring, and the senescence of deciduous vegetation in the fall. The primary objective of the work is to demonstrate that seasonality even in protected areas changes considerably across years. A major challenge is to decouple natural variability from possible trends—directional change that can lead to a permanent and radically different ecosystem state. Trends can be either a gradual degradation of the landscape (often from external influences) or steady improvement (by

CO2 (dry ice) cleaning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, Donald M.

1995-01-01

components include: a dry ice pellet supply, a non-reactive propellant gas source, a pellet and propellant metering device, and a media transport and acceleration hose and nozzle arrangement. Dry ice cleaning system operating parameters include: choice of propellant gas, its pressure and temperature, dry ice mass flow rate, dry ice pellet size and shape, and acceleration nozzle configuration. These parameters may be modified to fit different applications. The growth of the dry ice cleaning industry will depend upon timely data acquisition of the effects that independent changes in these parameters have on cleaning rates, with respect to different surface coating and substrate combinations. With this data, optimization of cleaning rates for particular applications will be possible. The analysis of the applicable range of modulation of these parameters, within system component mechanical constraints, has just begun.

Phenology satellite experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dethier, B. E. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The detection of a phenological event (the Brown Wave-vegetation sensescence) for specific forest and crop types using ERTS-1 imagery is described. Data handling techniques including computer analysis and photointerpretation procedures are explained. Computer analysis of multspectral scanner digital tapes in all bands was used to give the relative changes of spectral reflectance with time of forests and specified crops. These data were obtained for a number of the twenty-four sites located within four north-south corridors across the United States. Analysis of ground observation photography and ERTS-1 imagery for sites in the Appalachian Corridor and Mississippi Valley Corridor indicates that the recession of vegetation development can be detected very well. Tentative conclusions are that specific phenological events such as crop maturity or leaf fall can be mapped for specific sites and possible for different regions. Preliminary analysis based on a number of samples in mixed deciduous hardwood stands indicates that as senescence proceeds both the rate of change and differences in color among species can be detected. The results to data show the feasibility of the development and refinement of phenoclimatic models.

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability.

PubMed

Andrew, Carrie; Heegaard, Einar; Høiland, Klaus; Senn-Irlet, Beatrice; Kuyper, Thomas W; Krisai-Greilhuber, Irmgard; Kirk, Paul M; Heilmann-Clausen, Jacob; Gange, Alan C; Egli, Simon; Bässler, Claus; Büntgen, Ulf; Boddy, Lynne; Kauserud, Håvard

2018-06-01

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Enhancing Ecological Thought Through Phenological Observation, Research, and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Losleben, M.; Benton, L. M.

2008-12-01

Background The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is an emerging and exciting partnership between federal agencies, the academic community, and the general public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles and phenology on the Nation's resources. Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of same or different species. Phenological data and models developed as part of the network can be applied to scientific research, education and outreach, as well as to stakeholders interested in agriculture, tourism and recreation, human health, and natural resource conservation and management. The goal of the USA-NPN (www.usanpn.org) is to establish a nationwide science and monitoring program to better understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to climatic variation, and to facilitate human adaptation to ongoing and potential future climate change. Results The NPN has a number of programs through which learners of all ages can observe and interpret their environment using phenology as a platform to facilitate understanding through active learning, engagement, and inquiry-based approaches. For example, since February 2008, the NPN-affiliated network Project BudBurst has registered almost 3000 people who are observing nearly 4000 plants across the continental US and are reporting their observations on-line. In addition, we are developing educational programs, modules, and activities applicable to all stages in the educational process from 'K to gray,' and are partnering with local, state, and federal governmental and non- governmental organizations on education/outreach programming. Dissemination of educational materials and information will be facilitated by the creation of an on-line clearing-house for phenology education and outreach. In sum, the NPN is developing a number of programs and products that will capitalize

Historical Phenological Observations: Past Climate Impact Analyses and Climate Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, T.; Luterbacher, J.; Meier, N.; Jeanneret, F.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.

2007-12-01

Plant phenological observations have been found an important indicator of climate change impacts on seasonal and interannual vegetation development for the late 20th/early 21st century. Our contribution contains three parts that are essential for the understanding (part 1), the analysis (part 2) and the application (part 3) of historical phenological observations in global change research. First, we propose a definition for historical phenonolgy (Rutishauser, 2007). We shortly portray the first appearance of phenological observations in Medieval philosophical and literature sources, the usage and application of this method in the Age of Enlightenment (Carl von Linné, Charles Morren), as well as the development in the 20th century (Schnelle, Lieth) to present-day networks (COST725, USA-NPN) Second, we introduce a methodological approach to estimate 'Statistical plants' from historical phenological observations (Rutishauser et al., JGR-Biogeoscience, in press). We combine spatial averaging methods and regression transfer modeling to estimate 'statistical plant' dates from historical observations that often contain gaps, changing observers and changing locations. We apply the concept to reconstruct a statistical 'Spring plant' as the weighted mean of the flowering date of cherry and apple tree and beech budburst of Switzerland 1702- 2005. Including dating total data uncertainty we estimate 10 at interannual and 3.4 days at decadal time scales. Third, we apply two long-term phenological records to describe plant phenological response to spring temperature and reconstruct warm-season temperatures from grape harvest dates (Rutishauser et al, submitted; Meier et al, GRL, in press).

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P < 0.01), but remained stable from 1963-1987 to 1989-2013. The strength of FBD and temperature relationship, the spring temperature variance, and winter chill all impact ST in an expected way at most stations. No consistent responses of ST on photoperiod were found. Our results imply that the trends and variability in ST of flowering phenology are driving by multiple factors and impacted by time scales. Continued efforts are still needed to further examine the flowering-temperature relationship for other plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

Sensitivity of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoxu; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-09-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. The changes are further amplified through a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), owing to the interhemispheric bipolar seasaw linked to AMOC weakening. Another insight of this study lies on the improvement of our climate model. The ocean component FESOM is a newly developed ocean-sea ice model with an unstructured mesh and multi-resolution. We find that the subpolar sea-ice boundary in the Northern Hemisphere can be improved by tuning the process of open-water ice growth, which strongly influences the sea ice concentration in the marginal ice zone, the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and Arctic sea ice volume. Since the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters and the knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude, it is a challenge to implement the processes realistically into models. Based on our sensitivity experiments, we conclude a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity.

Response of alpine vegetation growth dynamics to snow cover phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Wu, C.

2017-12-01

Alpine vegetation plays a crucial role in global energy cycles with snow cover, an essential component of alpine land cover showing high sensitivity to climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has a typical alpine vegetation ecosystem and is rich of snow resources. With global warming, the snow of the TP has undergone significant changes that will inevitably affect the growth of alpine vegetation, but observed evidence of such interaction is limited. In particular, a comprehensive understanding of the responses of alpine vegetation growth to snow cover variability is still not well characterized on TP region. To investigate this, we calculated three indicators, the start (SOS) and length (LOS) of growing season, and the maximum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) as proxies of vegetation growth dynamics from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for 2000-2015. Snow cover duration (SCD) and melt (SCM) dates were also extracted during the same time frame from the combination of MODIS and the Interactive Multi-sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) data. We found that the snow cover phenology had a strong control on alpine vegetation growth dynamics. Furthermore, the responses of SOS, LOS and NDVImax to snow cover phenology varied among plant functional types, eco-geographical zones, and temperature and precipitation gradients. The alpine steppes showed a much stronger negative correlation between SOS and SCD, and also a more evidently positive relationship between LOS and SCD than other types, indicating a longer SCD would lead to an earlier SOS and longer LOS. Most areas showed positive correlation between SOS and SCM, while a contrary response was also found in the warm but drier areas. Both SCD and SCM showed positive correlations with NDVImax, but the relationship became weaker with the increase of precipitation. Our findings provided strong evidences between vegetation growth and snow cover phenology, and changes in

Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vickerman, Mary B.; Baez, Marivell; Braun, Donald C.; Cotton, Barbara J.; Choo, Yung K.; Coroneos, Rula M.; Pennline, James A.; Hackenberg, Anthony W.; Schilling, Herbert W.; Slater, John W.;

Icing Encounter Duration Sensitivity Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Lee, Sam

2011-01-01

This paper describes a study performed to investigate how aerodynamic performance degradation progresses with time throughout an exposure to icing conditions. It is one of the first documented studies of the effects of ice contamination on aerodynamic performance at various points in time throughout an icing encounter. Both a 1.5 and 6 ft chord, two-dimensional, NACA-23012 airfoils were subjected to icing conditions in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel for varying lengths of time. At the end of each run, lift, drag, and pitching moment measurements were made. Measurements with the 1.5 ft chord model showed that maximum lift and pitching moment degraded more rapidly early in the exposure and degraded more slowly as time progressed. Drag for the 1.5 ft chord model degraded more linearly with time, although drag for very short exposure durations was slightly higher than expected. Only drag measurements were made with the 6 ft chord airfoil. Here, drag for the long exposures was higher than expected. Novel comparison of drag measurements versus an icing scaling parameter, accumulation parameter times collection efficiency was used to compare the data from the two different size model. The comparisons provided a means of assessing the level of fidelity needed for accurate icing simulation.

EM Bias-Correction for Ice Thickness and Surface Roughness Retrievals over Rough Deformed Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Gaiser, P. W.; Allard, R.; Posey, P. G.; Hebert, D. A.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2016-12-01

The very rough ridge sea ice accounts for significant percentage of total ice areas and even larger percentage of total volume. The commonly used Radar altimeter surface detection techniques are empirical in nature and work well only over level/smooth sea ice. Rough sea ice surfaces can modify the return waveforms, resulting in significant Electromagnetic (EM) bias in the estimated surface elevations, and thus large errors in the ice thickness retrievals. To understand and quantify such sea ice surface roughness effects, a combined EM rough surface and volume scattering model was developed to simulate radar returns from the rough sea ice `layer cake' structure. A waveform matching technique was also developed to fit observed waveforms to a physically-based waveform model and subsequently correct the roughness induced EM bias in the estimated freeboard. This new EM Bias Corrected (EMBC) algorithm was able to better retrieve surface elevations and estimate the surface roughness parameter simultaneously. In situ data from multi-instrument airborne and ground campaigns were used to validate the ice thickness and surface roughness retrievals. For the surface roughness retrievals, we applied this EMBC algorithm to co-incident LiDAR/Radar measurements collected during a Cryosat-2 under-flight by the NASA IceBridge missions. Results show that not only does the waveform model fit very well to the measured radar waveform, but also the roughness parameters derived independently from the LiDAR and radar data agree very well for both level and deformed sea ice. For sea ice thickness retrievals, validation based on in-situ data from the coordinated CRREL/NRL field campaign demonstrates that the physically-based EMBC algorithm performs fundamentally better than the empirical algorithm over very rough deformed sea ice, suggesting that sea ice surface roughness effects can be modeled and corrected based solely on the radar return waveforms.

Characterization of Ice Roughness Variations in Scaled Glaze Icing Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Stephen T.; Vargas, Mario; Tsao, Jen-Ching

2016-01-01

Because of the significant influence of surface tension in governing the stability and breakdown of the liquid film in flooded stagnation regions of airfoils exposed to glaze icing conditions, the Weber number is expected to be a significant parameter governing the formation and evolution of ice roughness. To investigate the influence of the Weber number on roughness formation, 53.3-cm (21-in.) and 182.9-cm (72-in.) NACA 0012 airfoils were exposed to flow conditions with essentially the same Weber number and varying stagnation collection efficiency to illuminate similarities of the ice roughness created on the different airfoils. The airfoils were exposed to icing conditions in the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Following exposure to the icing event, the airfoils were then scanned using a ROMER Absolute Arm scanning system. The resulting point clouds were then analyzed using the self-organizing map approach of McClain and Kreeger (2013) to determine the spatial roughness variations along the surfaces of the iced airfoils. The roughness characteristics on each airfoil were then compared using the relative geometries of the airfoil. The results indicate that features of the ice shape and roughness such as glaze-ice plateau limits and maximum airfoil roughness were captured well by Weber number and collection efficiency scaling of glaze icing conditions. However, secondary ice roughness features relating the instability and waviness of the liquid film on the glaze-ice plateau surface are scaled based on physics that were not captured by the local collection efficiency variations.

Land surface phenology of Northeast China during 2000-2015: temporal changes and relationships with climate changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng

2017-10-01

As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.

Tracking Climate Effects on Plant-Pollinator Interaction Phenology with Satellites and Honey Bee Hives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esaias, Wayne E.; Nickeson, Jaime E.; Tan, Bin; Ma, Peter L.; Nightingale, Joanne M.; Wolfe, Robert E.

2011-01-01

Background/Question/Methods: The complexity of plant-pollinator interactions, the large number of species involved, and the lack of species response functions present challenges to understanding how these critical interactions may be impacted by climate and land cover change on large scales. Given the importance of this interaction for terrestrial ecosystems, it is desirable to develop new approaches. We monitor the daily weight change of honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies to record the phenology of the Honey Bee Nectar Flow (HBNF) in a volunteer network (honeybeenet.gsfc.nasa.gov). The records document the successful interaction of a generalist pollinator with a variety of plant resources. We extract useful HBNF phenology metrics for three seasons. Sites currently exist in 35 states/provinces in North America, with a concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region. HBNF metrics are compared to standard phenology metrics derived from remotely sensed vegetation indices from NASA's MODIS sensor and published results from NOAA's A VHRR. At any given time the percentage of plants producing nectar is usually a sma11 fraction of the total satellite sensor signal. We are interested in determining how well the 'bulk' satellite vegetation parameters relate to the phenology of the HBNF, and how it varies spatially on landscape to continental scales. Results/Conclusions: We found the median and peak seasonal HBNF dates to be robust, with variation between replicate scale hives of only a few days. We developed quality assessment protocols to identify abnormal colony artifacts. Temporally, the peak and median of the HBNF in the Mid-Atlantic show a significant advance of 0.58 d/y beginning about 1970, very similar to that observed by the A VHRR since 1982 (0.57 d/y). Spatially, the HBNF metrics are highly correlated with elevation and winter minimum temperature distribution, and exhibit significant but regionally coherent inter-annual variation. The relationship between median of the

Spring leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in a temperate maple forest.

PubMed

Hanes, Jonathan M

2014-03-01

Spring leaf phenology in temperate climates is intricately related to numerous aspects of the lower atmosphere [e.g., surface energy balance, carbon flux, humidity, the diurnal temperature range (DTR)]. To further develop and improve the accuracy of ecosystem and climate models, additional investigations of the specific nature of the relationships between spring leaf phenology and various ecosystem and climate processes are required in different environments. This study used visual observations of maple leaf phenology, below-canopy light intensities, and micrometeorological data collected during the spring seasons of 2008, 2009, and 2010 to examine the potential influence of leaf phenology on a seasonal transition in the trend of the DTR. The timing of a reversal in the DTR trend occurred near the time when the leaves were unfolding and expanding. The results suggest that the spring decline in the DTR can be attributed primarily to the effect of canopy closure on daily maximum temperature. These findings improve our understanding of the relationship between leaf phenology and the diurnal temperature range in temperate maple forests during the spring. They also demonstrate the necessity of incorporating accurate phenological data into ecosystem and climate models and warrant a careful examination of the extent to which canopy phenology is currently incorporated into existing models.

Nonlinear flowering responses to climate: are species approaching their limits of phenological change?

PubMed

Iler, Amy M; Høye, Toke T; Inouye, David W; Schmidt, Niels M

2013-08-19

Many alpine and subalpine plant species exhibit phenological advancements in association with earlier snowmelt. While the phenology of some plant species does not advance beyond a threshold snowmelt date, the prevalence of such threshold phenological responses within plant communities is largely unknown. We therefore examined the shape of flowering phenology responses (linear versus nonlinear) to climate using two long-term datasets from plant communities in snow-dominated environments: Gothic, CO, USA (1974-2011) and Zackenberg, Greenland (1996-2011). For a total of 64 species, we determined whether a linear or nonlinear regression model best explained interannual variation in flowering phenology in response to increasing temperatures and advancing snowmelt dates. The most common nonlinear trend was for species to flower earlier as snowmelt advanced, with either no change or a slower rate of change when snowmelt was early (average 20% of cases). By contrast, some species advanced their flowering at a faster rate over the warmest temperatures relative to cooler temperatures (average 5% of cases). Thus, some species seem to be approaching their limits of phenological change in response to snowmelt but not temperature. Such phenological thresholds could either be a result of minimum springtime photoperiod cues for flowering or a slower rate of adaptive change in flowering time relative to changing climatic conditions.

A Global Framework for Monitoring Phenological Responses to Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, Michael A; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hargrove, William Walter

2005-01-01

Remote sensing of vegetation phenology is an important method with which to monitor terrestrial responses to climate change, but most approaches include signals from multiple forcings, such as mixed phenological signals from multiple biomes, urbanization, political changes, shifts in agricultural practices, and disturbances. Consequently, it is difficult to extract a clear signal from the usually assumed forcing: climate change. Here, using global 8 km 1982 to 1999 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and an eight-element monthly climatology, we identified pixels whose wavelet power spectrum was consistently dominated by annual cycles and then created phenologically and climatically self-similar clusters, whichmore » we term phenoregions. We then ranked and screened each phenoregion as a function of landcover homogeneity and consistency, evidence of human impacts, and political diversity. Remaining phenoregions represented areas with a minimized probability of non-climatic forcings and form elemental units for long-term phenological monitoring.« less

Networked web-cameras monitor congruent seasonal development of birches with phenological field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltoniemi, Mikko; Aurela, Mika; Böttcher, Kristin; Kolari, Pasi; Loehr, John; Karhu, Jouni; Kubin, Eero; Linkosalmi, Maiju; Melih Tanis, Cemal; Nadir Arslan, Ali

2017-04-01

Ecosystems' potential to provide services, e.g. to sequester carbon is largely driven by the phenological cycle of vegetation. Timing of phenological events is required for understanding and predicting the influence of climate change on ecosystems and to support various analyses of ecosystem functioning. We established a network of cameras for automated monitoring of phenological activity of vegetation in boreal ecosystems of Finland. Cameras were mounted on 14 sites, each site having 1-3 cameras. In this study, we used cameras at 11 of these sites to investigate how well networked cameras detect phenological development of birches (Betula spp.) along the latitudinal gradient. Birches are interesting focal species for the analyses as they are common throughout Finland. In our cameras they often appear in smaller quantities within dominant species in the images. Here, we tested whether small scattered birch image elements allow reliable extraction of color indices and changes therein. We compared automatically derived phenological dates from these birch image elements to visually determined dates from the same image time series, and to independent observations recorded in the phenological monitoring network from the same region. Automatically extracted season start dates based on the change of green color fraction in the spring corresponded well with the visually interpreted start of season, and field observed budburst dates. During the declining season, red color fraction turned out to be superior over green color based indices in predicting leaf yellowing and fall. The latitudinal gradients derived using automated phenological date extraction corresponded well with gradients based on phenological field observations from the same region. We conclude that already small and scattered birch image elements allow reliable extraction of key phenological dates for birch species. Devising cameras for species specific analyses of phenological timing will be useful for

Toward a phenology network in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalfes, H. N.; Ülgen, H.; Zeydanli, U.; Durak, A. T.

2012-04-01

All climate projections indicate that drastic changes are to occur in the Mediterranean Basin and Southwestern Asia. Detailed studies also foresee strong patterns of change in seasonality for most climate fields all across the country, threatening Turkey's rich biodiversity and diverse ecosystems already in trouble due to massive land use changes and careless resource extraction projects. It is therefore obvious that climate impact studies can benefit from detailed and continuous monitoring of relationships between climate and natural systems. Recently started efforts to build a phenology network for Turkey will hopefully constitute a component of a more comprehensive ecological observation infrastructure. The Phenology Network of Turkey Project saw its debut as a joint initiative of an academic institution (Istanbul Technical University) and a research NGO (Nature Conservation Center). It has been decided from the very beginning to rely a much as possible on Internet technologies (provided by the National High Performance Computing Center of Turkey). The effort is also inspired by and collaborates with already established networks in general and USA National Phenology Network in particular. Many protocols, instructional materials and Nature's Notebook application has been barrowed from the USA NPN. The project has been designed from the start as a two-faceted effort: an infrastructure to accumulate/provide useful data to climate/ecosystem research communities and a 'citizen science' project to raise nature and climate change awareness among all components of the society in Turkey in general and secondary education teachers and students in particular. It has been opted to start by gathering plant phenological data. A set with 20 plant species has been designed to serve as a countrywide 'calibration set'. It is also anticipated to salvage and extend as much of possible historical animal (especially bird and butterfly) observations.

Multisensor comparison of ice concentration estimates in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, B. A.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Gloersen, P.; Keller, M. R.; Campbell, W. J.

1987-01-01

Aircraft remote sensing data collected during the 1984 summer Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in the Fram Strait are used to compare ice concentration estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, passive microwave imagery at several frequencies, aerial photography, and spectral photometer data. The comparison is carried out not only to evaluate SAR performance against more established techniques but also to investigate how ice surface conditions, imaging geometry, and choice of algorithm parameters affect estimates made by each sensor.Active and passive microwave sensor estimates of ice concentration derived using similar algorithms show an rms difference of 13 percent. Agreement between each microwave sensor and near-simultaneous aerial photography is approximately the same (14 percent). The availability of high-resolution microwave imagery makes it possible to ascribe the discrepancies in the concentration estimates to variations in ice surface signatures in the scene.

Geo-spatial analysis of the temporal trends of kharif crop phenology metrics over India and its relationships with rainfall parameters.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M V R; Dadhwal, V K

2014-07-01

The Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies bimonthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data of 8 × 8 km spatial resolution for the period of 1982-2006 were analyzed to detect the trends of crop phenology metrics (start of the growing season (SGS), seasonal NDVI amplitude (AMP), seasonally integrated NDVI (SiNDVI)) during kharif season (June to October) and their relationships with the amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days over Indian subcontinent. Direction and magnitude of trends were analyzed at pixel level using the Mann-Kendall test and further assessed at meteorological subdivision level using field significance test (α = 0.1). Significant pre-occurrence of the SGS was observed over northern (Punjab, Haryana) and central (Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra) parts, whereas delay was found over southern (Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh) and eastern (Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal) parts of India. North, west, and central India showed significant increasing trends of SiNDVI, corroborating the kharif food grain production performance during the time frame. Significant temporal correlation (α = 0.1) between the rainfall/number of rainy days and crop phenology metrics was observed over the rainfed region of India. About 35-40 % of the study area showed significant correlation between the SGS and the rainfall/number of rainy days during June to August. June month rainfall/number of rainy days was found to be the most sensitive to the SGS. The amount of rainfall and the number of rainy days during monsoon were found to have significant influence over the SiNDVI in 24-30 % of the study area. The crop phenology metrics had significant correlation with the number of rainy days over the larger areas than that of the rainfall amount.

Organizing phenological data resources to inform natural resource conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Kellermann, Jherime L.; Posthumus, Erin E.; Denny, Ellen G.; Guertin, Patricia; Marsh, Lee; Weltzin, Jake F.

2014-01-01

Changes in the timing of plant and animal life cycle events, in response to climate change, are already happening across the globe. The impacts of these changes may affect biodiversity via disruption to mutualisms, trophic mismatches, invasions and population declines. To understand the nature, causes and consequences of changed, varied or static phenologies, new data resources and tools are being developed across the globe. The USA National Phenology Network is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database, together with a customizable infrastructure, to support conservation and management needs. We present current and potential applications of the infrastructure, across scales and user groups. The approaches described here are congruent with recent trends towards multi-agency, large-scale research and action.

Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Aukema, Brian H.; McDowell, Nate G.; ...

2017-11-26

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills maturemore » pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.« less

Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Aukema, Brian H.; McDowell, Nate G.

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography. Our derivation, which is based on the rate summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills maturemore » pine trees. This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.« less

Incorporating variability in simulations of seasonally forced phenology using integral projection models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Aukema, Brian H.; McDowell, Nate G.

Phenology models are becoming increasingly important tools to accurately predict how climate change will impact the life histories of organisms. We propose a class of integral projection phenology models derived from stochastic individual-based models of insect development and demography.Our derivation, which is based on the rate-summation concept, produces integral projection models that capture the effect of phenotypic rate variability on insect phenology, but which are typically more computationally frugal than equivalent individual-based phenology models. We demonstrate our approach using a temperature-dependent model of the demography of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an insect that kills mature pine trees.more » This work illustrates how a wide range of stochastic phenology models can be reformulated as integral projection models. Due to their computational efficiency, these integral projection models are suitable for deployment in large-scale simulations, such as studies of altered pest distributions under climate change.« less

Ice-cover effects on competitive interactions between two fish species.

PubMed

Helland, Ingeborg P; Finstad, Anders G; Forseth, Torbjørn; Hesthagen, Trygve; Ugedal, Ola

2011-05-01

was strongly dependent on duration of the ice-covered period. Our study shows that changes in ice phenology may alter species interactions in Northern aquatic systems. Increased knowledge of how adaptations to winter conditions differ among coexisting species is therefore vital for our understanding of ecological impacts of climate change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Multiscale Models of Melting Arctic Sea Ice

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

September 29, 2013 LONG-TERM GOALS Sea ice reflectance or albedo , a key parameter in climate modeling, is primarily determined by melt pond...and ice floe configurations. Ice - albedo feedback has played a major role in the recent declines of the summer Arctic sea ice pack. However...understanding the evolution of melt ponds and sea ice albedo remains a significant challenge to improving climate models. Our research is focused on

Rethinking "normal": The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird.

PubMed

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Hinke, Jefferson T; DuBois, Lauren; St Leger, Judy; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z; Trivelpiece, Susan G; Lynch, Heather J

2018-05-01

Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for

Monitoring Phenology as Indicator for Timing of Nutrient Inputs in Northern Gulf Watersheds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Kenton W.; Spiering, Bruce A.; Kalcic, Maria T.

2009-01-01

Nutrient over-enrichment defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as the anthropogenic addition of nutrients, in addition to any natural processes, causing adverse effects or impairments to the beneficial uses of a water body has been identified as one of the most significant environmental problems facing sensitive estuaries and coastal waters. Understanding the timing of nutrient inputs into those waters through remote sensing observables helps define monitoring and mitigation strategies. Remotely sensed data products can trace both forcings and effects of the nutrient system from landscape to estuary. This project is focused on extracting nutrient information from the landscape. The timing of nutrients entering coastal waters from the land boundary is greatly influenced by hydrologic processes, but can also be affected by the timing of nutrient additions across the landscape through natural or anthropogenic means. Non-point source nutrient additions to watersheds are often associated with specific seasonal cycles, such as decomposition of organic materials in fall and winter or addition of fertilizers to crop lands in the spring. These seasonal cycles or phenology may in turn be observed through the use of satellite sensors. Characterization of the phenology of various land cover types may be of particular interest in Gulf of Mexico estuarine systems with relatively short pathways between intensively managed systems and the land/estuarine boundary. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the capability of monitoring phenology of specific classes of land, such as agriculture and managed timberlands, at a refined watershed level. The extraction of phenological information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data record is accomplished using analytical tools developed for NASA at Stennis Space Center: the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool. MODIS reflectance data (product MOD09) were

Seasonality and phenology alter functional leaf traits.

PubMed

McKown, Athena D; Guy, Robert D; Azam, M Shofiul; Drewes, Eric C; Quamme, Linda K

2013-07-01

In plant ecophysiology, functional leaf traits are generally not assessed in relation to phenological phase of the canopy. Leaf traits measured in deciduous perennial species are known to vary between spring and summer seasons, but there is a knowledge gap relating to the late-summer phase marked by growth cessation and bud set occurring well before fall leaf senescence. The effects of phenology on canopy physiology were tested using a common garden of over 2,000 black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) individuals originating from a wide geographical range (44-60ºN). Annual phenological events and 12 leaf-based functional trait measurements were collected spanning the entire summer season prior to, and following, bud set. Patterns of seasonal trait change emerged by synchronizing trees using their date of bud set. In particular, photosynthetic, mass, and N-based traits increased substantially following bud set. Most traits were significantly different between pre-bud set and post-bud set phase trees, with many traits showing at least 25% alteration in mean value. Post-bud set, both the significance and direction of trait-trait relationships could be modified, with many relating directly to changes in leaf mass. In Populus, these dynamics in leaf traits throughout the summer season reflected a shift in whole plant physiology, but occurred long before the onset of leaf senescence. The marked shifts in measured trait values following bud set underscores the necessity to include phenology in trait-based ecological studies or large-scale phenotyping efforts, both at the local level and larger geographical scale.

Lake Ice Cover of Shallow Lakes and Climate Interactions in Arctic Regions (1950-2011): SAR Data Analysis and Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surdu, C.; Duguay, C.; Brown, L.; Fernàndez-Prieto, D.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-12-01

Lake ice cover is highly correlated with climatic conditions and has, therefore, been demonstrated to be an essential indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have shown that the duration of the lake ice cover has decreased, mainly as a consequence of earlier thaw dates in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years, mainly as a feedback to increased winter and spring air temperature. In response to projected air temperature and winter precipitation changes by climate models until the end of the 21st century, the timing, duration, and thickness of ice cover on Arctic lakes are expected to be impacted. This, in turn, will likely alter the energy, water, and bio-geochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that fully freeze to the bottom at the time of maximum winter ice thickness since thinner ice covers are predicted to develop. Shallow thermokarst lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and of other similar Arctic regions, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice phenology and thickness over the last few decades but these have not yet been comprehensively documented. Analysis of a 20-year time series of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and numerical lake ice modeling were employed to determine the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific to the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RCA4) was used to drive the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1950-2011. In order to assess and integrate the SAR-derived observed changes into a longer historical context, and

Simulated climate warming alters phenological synchrony between an outbreak insect herbivore and host trees.

PubMed

Schwartzberg, Ezra G; Jamieson, Mary A; Raffa, Kenneth F; Reich, Peter B; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Lindroth, Richard L

2014-07-01

As the world's climate warms, the phenologies of interacting organisms in seasonally cold environments may advance at differing rates, leading to alterations in phenological synchrony that can have important ecological consequences. For temperate and boreal species, the timing of early spring development plays a key role in plant-herbivore interactions and can influence insect performance, outbreak dynamics, and plant damage. We used a field-based, meso-scale free-air forest warming experiment (B4WarmED) to examine the effects of elevated temperature on the phenology and performance of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) in relation to the phenology of two host trees, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera). Results of our 2-year study demonstrated that spring phenology advanced for both insects and trees, with experimentally manipulated increases in temperature of 1.7 and 3.4 °C. However, tree phenology advanced more than insect phenology, resulting in altered phenological synchrony. Specifically, we observed a decrease in the time interval between herbivore egg hatch and budbreak of aspen in both years and birch in one year. Moreover, warming decreased larval development time from egg hatch to pupation, but did not affect pupal mass. Larvae developed more quickly on aspen than birch, but pupal mass was not affected by host species. Our study reveals that warming-induced phenological shifts can alter the timing of ecological interactions across trophic levels. These findings illustrate one mechanism by which climate warming could mediate insect herbivore outbreaks, and also highlights the importance of climate change effects on trophic interactions.

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolf, Amelia A.; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Comparing MODIS and near-surface vegetation indexes for monitoring tropical dry forest phenology along a successional gradient using optical phenology towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankine, C.; Sánchez-Azofeifa, G. A.; Guzmán, J. Antonio; Espirito-Santo, M. M.; Sharp, Iain

2017-10-01

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) present strong seasonal greenness signals ideal for tracking phenology and primary productivity using remote sensing techniques. The tightly synchronized relationship these ecosystems have with water availability offer a valuable natural experiment for observing the complex interactions between the atmosphere and the biosphere in the tropics. To investigate how well the MODIS vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI)) represented the phenology of different successional stages of naturally regenerating TDFs, within a widely conserved forest fragment in the semi-arid southeast of Brazil, we installed several canopy towers with radiometric sensors to produce high temporal resolution near-surface vegetation greenness indices. Direct comparison of several years of ground measurements with a combined Aqua/Terra 8 day satellite product showed similar broad temporal trends, but MODIS often suffered from cloud contamination during the onset of the growing season and occasionally during the peak growing season. The strength of the in-situ and MODIS linear relationship was greater for NDVI than for EVI across sites but varied with forest stand age. Furthermore, we describe the onset dates and duration of canopy development phases for three years of in-situ monitoring. A seasonality analysis revealed significant discrepancies between tower and MODIS phenology transitions dates, with up to five weeks differences in growing season length estimation. Our results indicate that 8 and 16 day MODIS satellite vegetation monitoring products are suitable for tracking general patterns of tropical dry forest phenology in this region but are not temporally sufficient to characterize inter-annual differences in phenology phase onset dates or changes in productivity due to mid-season droughts. Such rapid transitions in canopy greenness are important indicators of climate change sensitivity of these

Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

2017-12-01

Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

Nutrient status: a missing factor in phenological and pollen research?

PubMed Central

Jochner, Susanne; Höfler, Josef; Beck, Isabelle; Göttlein, Axel; Ankerst, Donna Pauler; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Menzel, Annette

2013-01-01

Phenology ranks among the best ecosystem processes for fingerprinting climate change since temperature explains a high percentage of the interannual or spatial variation in phenological onset dates. However, roles of other environmental variables, such as foliar nutrient concentrations, are far from adequately understood. This observational study examined the effects of air temperature and 11 nutrients on spring phenology of Betula pendula Roth (birch) along an urban–rural gradient in Munich, Germany, during the years 2010/2011. Moreover, the influence of temperature, nutrients, and air pollutants (NO2 and O3) on the amounts of pollen and catkin biomass in 2010 was evaluated. In addition to the influence of higher temperatures advancing phenological onset dates, higher foliar concentrations of potassium, boron, zinc, and calcium were statistically significantly linked to earlier onset dates. Since flushing of leaves is a turgor-driven process and all the influential nutrients are involved in cell extension, membrane function, and stability, there might be a reasonable physiological interpretation of the observed association. The amounts of pollen were negatively correlated with temperature, atmospheric NO2, and foliar iron concentration, suggesting that these variables restrict pollen production. The results of this study suggested an influence of nutritional status on both phenology and pollen production. The interaction of urbanization and climate change should be considered in the assessment of the impact of global warming on ecosystems and human health. PMID:23630329

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

An enhanced TIMESAT algorithm for estimating vegetation phenology metrics from MODIS data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, B.; Morisette, J.T.; Wolfe, R.E.; Gao, F.; Ederer, G.A.; Nightingale, J.; Pedelty, J.A.

2011-01-01

An enhanced TIMESAT algorithm was developed for retrieving vegetation phenology metrics from 250 m and 500 m spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indexes (VI) over North America. MODIS VI data were pre-processed using snow-cover and land surface temperature data, and temporally smoothed with the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm. An objective third derivative test was applied to define key phenology dates and retrieve a set of phenology metrics. This algorithm has been applied to two MODIS VIs: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In this paper, we describe the algorithm and use EVI as an example to compare three sets of TIMESAT algorithm/MODIS VI combinations: a) original TIMESAT algorithm with original MODIS VI, b) original TIMESAT algorithm with pre-processed MODIS VI, and c) enhanced TIMESAT and pre-processed MODIS VI. All retrievals were compared with ground phenology observations, some made available through the National Phenology Network. Our results show that for MODIS data in middle to high latitude regions, snow and land surface temperature information is critical in retrieving phenology metrics from satellite observations. The results also show that the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm can better accommodate growing season start and end dates that vary significantly from year to year. The TIMESAT algorithm improvements contribute to more spatial coverage and more accurate retrievals of the phenology metrics. Among three sets of TIMESAT/MODIS VI combinations, the start of the growing season metric predicted by the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm using pre-processed MODIS VIs has the best associations with ground observed vegetation greenup dates. ?? 2010 IEEE.

An Enhanced TIMESAT Algorithm for Estimating Vegetation Phenology Metrics from MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Bin; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Gao, Feng; Ederer, Gregory A.; Nightingale, Joanne; Pedelty, Jeffrey A.

2012-01-01

An enhanced TIMESAT algorithm was developed for retrieving vegetation phenology metrics from 250 m and 500 m spatial resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indexes (VI) over North America. MODIS VI data were pre-processed using snow-cover and land surface temperature data, and temporally smoothed with the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm. An objective third derivative test was applied to define key phenology dates and retrieve a set of phenology metrics. This algorithm has been applied to two MODIS VIs: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). In this paper, we describe the algorithm and use EVI as an example to compare three sets of TIMESAT algorithm/MODIS VI combinations: a) original TIMESAT algorithm with original MODIS VI, b) original TIMESAT algorithm with pre-processed MODIS VI, and c) enhanced TIMESAT and pre-processed MODIS VI. All retrievals were compared with ground phenology observations, some made available through the National Phenology Network. Our results show that for MODIS data in middle to high latitude regions, snow and land surface temperature information is critical in retrieving phenology metrics from satellite observations. The results also show that the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm can better accommodate growing season start and end dates that vary significantly from year to year. The TIMESAT algorithm improvements contribute to more spatial coverage and more accurate retrievals of the phenology metrics. Among three sets of TIMESAT/MODIS VI combinations, the start of the growing season metric predicted by the enhanced TIMESAT algorithm using pre-processed MODIS VIs has the best associations with ground observed vegetation greenup dates.

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change.

PubMed

Kristensen, Nadiah Pardede; Johansson, Jacob; Ripa, Jörgen; Jonzén, Niclas

2015-05-22

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits-arrival date and hatching date-and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Study of energy parameters of machine parts of water-ice jet cleaning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prezhbilov, A. N.; Burnashov, M. A.

2018-03-01

The reader will achieve a benchmark understanding of the essence of cleaning for the removal of contaminants from machine elements by means of cryo jet/water-ice jet with particles prepared beforehand. This paper represents the classification of the most common contaminants appearing on the surfaces of machine elements after a long-term service. The conceptual contribution of the paper is to represent a thermo-physical model of contaminant removal by means of a water ice jet. In conclusion, it is evident that this study has shown the dependencies between the friction force of an ice particle with an obstacle (contamination), a dimensional change of an ice particle in the cleaning process and the quantity of heat transmitted to an ice particle.

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Tierney, Geraldine L.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Guertin, Patricia; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Thomas, Kathryn A.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2014-05-01

Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species' phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological "status", or the ability to track presence-absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Tierney, Geraldine L.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Guertin, Patricia; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Thomas, Kathryn A.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2014-01-01

Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species’ phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological “status”, or the ability to track presence–absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications.

PubMed

Denny, Ellen G; Gerst, Katharine L; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Tierney, Geraldine L; Crimmins, Theresa M; Enquist, Carolyn A F; Guertin, Patricia; Rosemartin, Alyssa H; Schwartz, Mark D; Thomas, Kathryn A; Weltzin, Jake F

2014-05-01

Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species' phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and services upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribution. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species difficult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological "status", or the ability to track presence-absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of intensity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi-taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

A Comparison of Sea Ice Type, Sea Ice Temperature, and Snow Thickness Distributions in the Arctic Seasonal Ice Zones with the DMSP SSM/I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

St.Germain, Karen; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Markus, Thorsten

1997-01-01

Global climate studies have shown that sea ice is a critical component in the global climate system through its effect on the ocean and atmosphere, and on the earth's radiation balance. Polar energy studies have further shown that the distribution of thin ice and open water largely controls the distribution of surface heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere within the winter Arctic ice pack. The thickness of the ice, the depth of snow on the ice, and the temperature profile of the snow/ice composite are all important parameters in calculating surface heat fluxes. In recent years, researchers have used various combinations of DMSP SSMI channels to independently estimate the thin ice type (which is related to ice thickness), the thin ice temperature, and the depth of snow on the ice. In each case validation efforts provided encouraging results, but taken individually each algorithm gives only one piece of the information necessary to compute the energy fluxes through the ice and snow. In this paper we present a comparison of the results from each of these algorithms to provide a more comprehensive picture of the seasonal ice zone using passive microwave observations.

Phenological mismatch with abiotic conditions implications for flowering in Arctic plants.

PubMed

Wheeler, Helen C; Høye, Toke T; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Forchhammer, Mads C

2015-03-01

Although many studies have examined the phenological mismatches between interacting organisms, few have addressed the potential for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions. In the Arctic, rapid phenological changes in many taxa are occurring in association with earlier snowmelt. The timing of snowmelt is jointly affected by the size of the late winter snowpack and the temperature during the spring thaw. Increased winter snowpack results in delayed snowmelt, whereas higher air temperatures and faster snowmelt advance the timing of snowmelt. Where interannual variation in snowpack is substantial, changes in the timing of snowmelt can be largely uncoupled from changes in air temperature. Using detailed, long-term data on the flowering phenology of four arctic plant species from Zackenberg, Greenland, we investigate whether there is a phenological component to the temperature conditions experienced prior to and during flowering. In particular, we assess the role of timing of flowering in determining pre-flowering exposure to freezing temperatures and to the temperatures-experienced prior to flowering. We then examine the implications of flowering phenology for flower abundance. Earlier snowmelt resulted in greater exposure to freezing conditions, suggesting an increased potential for a mismatch between the timing of flowering and seasonal weather conditions and an increased potential for negative consequences, such as freezing 'damage. We also found a parabolic relationship between the timing of flowering and the temperature experienced during flowering after taking interannual temperature effects into account. If timing of flowering advances to a cooler period of the growing season, this may moderate the effects of a general warming trend across years. Flower abundance was quadratically associated with the timing of flowering, such that both early and late flowering led to lower flower abundance than did intermediate flowering. Our results

Continental-scale patterns and climatic drivers of fruiting phenology: A quantitative Neotropical review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Irene; Peres, Carlos A.; Morellato, Leonor Patrícia C.

2017-01-01

Changes in the life cycle of organisms (i.e. phenology) are one of the most widely used early-warning indicators of climate change, yet this remains poorly understood throughout the tropics. We exhaustively reviewed any published and unpublished study on fruiting phenology carried out at the community level in the American tropics and subtropics (latitudinal range: 26°N-26°S) to (1) provide a comprehensive overview of the current status of fruiting phenology research throughout the Neotropics; (2) unravel the climatic factors that have been widely reported as drivers of fruiting phenology; and (3) provide a preliminary assessment of the potential phenological responses of plants under future climatic scenarios. Despite the large number of phenological datasets uncovered (218), our review shows that their geographic distribution is very uneven and insufficient for the large surface of the Neotropics ( 1 dataset per 78,000 km2). Phenological research is concentrated in few areas with many studies (state of São Paulo, Brazil, and Costa Rica), whereas vast regions elsewhere are entirely unstudied. Sampling effort in fruiting phenology studies was generally low: the majority of datasets targeted fewer than 100 plant species (71%), lasted 2 years or less (72%), and only 10.4% monitored > 15 individuals per species. We uncovered only 10 sites with ten or more years of phenological monitoring. The ratio of numbers of species sampled to overall estimates of plant species richness was wholly insufficient for highly diverse vegetation types such as tropical rainforest, seasonal forest and cerrado, and only slightly more robust for less diverse vegetation types, such as deserts, arid shrublands and open grassy savannas. Most plausible drivers of phenology extracted from these datasets were environmental (78.5%), whereas biotic drivers were rare (6%). Among climatic factors, rainfall was explicitly included in 73.4% of cases, followed by air temperature (19.3%). Other

Interannual Variations in Global Vegetation Phenology Derived from a Long Term AVHRR and MODIS Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Friedl, M. A.; Yu, Y.

2013-12-01

Land surface phenology metrics are widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and have been shown to be valuable for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in response to extreme climate events and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. While the response of spring vegetation greenup to climate warming at mid-to-high latitudes is well-documented, understanding of diverse phenological responses to climate change over entire growing cycles and at broad geographic scales is incomplete. Many studies assume that the timing of individual phenological indicators in responses to climate forcing is independent of phenological events that occur at other times during the growing season. In this paper we use a different strategy. Specifically, we hypothesize that integrating sequences of key phenological indicators across growing seasons provides a more effective way to capture long-term variation in phenology in response to climate change. To explore this hypothesis we use global land surface phenology metrics derived from the Version 3 Long Term Vegetation Index Products from Multiple Satellite Data Records data set to examine interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology from 1982-2010. Using daily enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we model the phenological trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models. The modeled trajectories were then used to detect phenological indicators including the onset of greenness increase, the onset of greenness maximum, the onset of greenness decrease, the onset of greenness minimum, and the growing season length, among others at global scale. The quality of land surface phenology detection for individual pixels was calculated based on metrics that characterize the EVI quality and model fits in annual time series at each pixel. Phenological indicators characterized as having good quality were then

Intraspecific priority effects modify compensatory responses to changes in hatching phenology in an amphibian.

PubMed

Murillo-Rincón, Andrea P; Kolter, Nora A; Laurila, Anssi; Orizaola, Germán

2017-01-01

In seasonal environments, modifications in the phenology of life-history events can alter the strength of time constraints experienced by organisms. Offspring can compensate for a change in timing of hatching by modifying their growth and development trajectories. However, intra- and interspecific interactions may affect these compensatory responses, in particular if differences in phenology between cohorts lead to significant priority effects (i.e. the competitive advantage that early-hatching individuals have over late-hatching ones). Here, we conducted a factorial experiment to determine whether intraspecific priority effects can alter compensatory phenotypic responses to hatching delay in a synchronic breeder by rearing moor frog (Rana arvalis) tadpoles in different combinations of phenological delay and food abundance. Tadpoles compensated for the hatching delay by speeding up their development, but only when reared in groups of individuals with identical hatching phenology. In mixed phenology groups, strong competitive effects by non-delayed tadpoles prevented the compensatory responses and delayed larvae metamorphosed later than in single phenology treatments. Non-delayed individuals gained advantage from developing with delayed larvae by increasing their developmental and growth rates as compared to single phenology groups. Food shortage prolonged larval period and reduced mass at metamorphosis in all treatments, but it did not prevent compensatory developmental responses in larvae reared in single phenology groups. This study demonstrates that strong intraspecific priority effects can constrain the compensatory growth and developmental responses to phenological change, and that priority effects can be an important factor explaining the maintenance of synchronic life histories (i.e. explosive breeding) in seasonal environments. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

A Model to Assess the Risk of Ice Accretion Due to Ice Crystal Ingestion in a Turbofan Engine and its Effects on Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.; Wright, William B.; Struk, Peter M.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that were attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was one or more of the following anomalies: degraded engine performance, engine roll back, compressor surge and stall, and flameout of the combustor. The main focus of this research is the development of a computational tool that can estimate whether there is a risk of ice accretion by tracking key parameters through the compression system blade rows at all engine operating points within the flight trajectory. The tool has an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, coupled with a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor blade rows. Assumptions are made to predict the complex physics involved in engine icing. Specifically, the code does not directly estimate ice accretion and does not have models for particle breakup or erosion. Two key parameters have been suggested as conditions that must be met at the same location for ice accretion to occur: the local wet-bulb temperature to be near freezing or below and the local melt ratio must be above 10%. These parameters were deduced from analyzing laboratory icing test data and are the criteria used to predict the possibility of ice accretion within an engine including the specific blade row where it could occur. Once the possibility of accretion is determined from these parameters, the degree of blockage due to ice accretion on the local stator vane can be estimated from an empirical model of ice growth rate and time spent at that operating point in the flight trajectory. The computational tool can be used to assess specific turbine engines to their susceptibility to

Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants.

PubMed

Miao, Lijuan; Müller, Daniel; Cui, Xuefeng; Ma, Meihong

2017-01-01

Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

Mapping Forest Fuels through Vegetation Phenology: The Role of Coarse-Resolution Satellite Time-Series

PubMed Central

Bajocco, Sofia; Dragoz, Eleni; Gitas, Ioannis; Smiraglia, Daniela; Salvati, Luca; Ricotta, Carlo

2015-01-01

Traditionally fuel maps are built in terms of ‘fuel types’, thus considering the structural characteristics of vegetation only. The aim of this work is to derive a phenological fuel map based on the functional attributes of coarse-scale vegetation phenology, such as seasonality and productivity. MODIS NDVI 250m images of Sardinia (Italy), a large Mediterranean island with high frequency of fire incidence, were acquired for the period 2000–2012 to construct a mean annual NDVI profile of the vegetation at the pixel-level. Next, the following procedure was used to develop the phenological fuel map: (i) image segmentation on the Fourier components of the NDVI profiles to identify phenologically homogeneous landscape units, (ii) cluster analysis of the phenological units and post-hoc analysis of the fire-proneness of the phenological fuel classes (PFCs) obtained, (iii) environmental characterization (in terms of land cover and climate) of the PFCs. Our results showed the ability of coarse-resolution satellite time-series to characterize the fire-proneness of Sardinia with an adequate level of accuracy. The remotely sensed phenological framework presented may represent a suitable basis for the development of fire distribution prediction models, coarse-scale fuel maps and for various biogeographic studies. PMID:25822505

Vegetation Phenology Metrics Derived from Temporally Smoothed and Gap-filled MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Bin; Morisette, Jeff; Wolfe, Robert; Esaias, Wayne; Gao, Feng; Ederer, Greg; Nightingale, Joanne; Nickeson, Jamie E.; Ma, Pete; Pedely, Jeff

2012-01-01

Smoothed and gap-filled VI provides a good base for estimating vegetation phenology metrics. The TIMESAT software was improved by incorporating the ancillary information from MODIS products. A simple assessment of the association between retrieved greenup dates and ground observations indicates satisfactory result from improved TIMESAT software. One application example shows that mapping Nectar Flow Phenology is tractable on a continental scale using hive weight and satellite vegetation data. The phenology data product is supporting more researches in ecology, climate change fields.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Duputié, Anne; Rutschmann, Alexis; Ronce, Ophélie; Chuine, Isabelle

2015-08-01

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land Use and Environmental Variability Impacts on the Phenology of Arid Agro-Ecosystems.

PubMed

Romo-Leon, Jose Raul; van Leeuwen, Willem J D; Castellanos-Villegas, Alejandro

2016-02-01

The overexploitation of water resources in arid environments often results in abandonment of large extensions of agricultural lands, which may (1) modify phenological trends, and (2) alter the sensitivity of specific phenophases to environmental triggers. In Mexico, current governmental policies subsidize restoration efforts, to address ecological degradation caused by abandonments; however, there is a need for new approaches to assess their effectiveness. Addressing this, we explore a method to monitor and assess (1) land surface phenology trends in arid agro-ecosystems, and (2) the effect of climatic factors and restoration treatments on the phenology of abandoned agricultural fields. We used 16-day normalized difference vegetation index composites from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer from 2000 to 2009 to derive seasonal phenometrics. We then derived phenoclimatic variables and land cover thematic maps, to serve as a set of independent factors that influence vegetation phenology. We conducted a multivariate analysis of variance to analyze phenological trends among land cover types, and developed multiple linear regression models to assess influential climatic factors driving phenology per land cover analyzed. Our results suggest that the start and length of the growing season had different responses to environmental factors depending on land cover type. Our analysis also suggests possible establishment of arid adapted species (from surrounding ecosystems) in abandoned fields with longer times since abandonment. Using this approach, we were able increase our understanding on how climatic factors influence phenology on degraded arid agro-ecosystems, and how this systems evolve after disturbance.

Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keenan, Trevor; Gray, Josh; Friedl, Mark

2014-01-01

The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (though the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4 and increased vegetation activity5,6. Such greening could be expected to enhance ecosystem carbon uptake7,8, though reports also suggest decreased uptake for boreal forests4,9. Here we assess changes in phenology of temperate forests over the eastern US during the past two decades, and quantify the resulting changes in forest carbon storage. We combine long-term groundmore » observations of phenology, satellite indices, and ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide flux measurements, along with 18 terrestrial biosphere models. We observe a strong trend of earlier spring and later autumn. In contrast to previous suggestions4,9 we show that carbon uptake through photosynthesis increased considerably more than carbon release through respiration for both an earlier spring and later autumn. The terrestrial biosphere models tested misrepresent the temperature sensitivity of phenology, and thus the effect on carbon uptake. Our analysis of the temperature-phenology-carbon coupling suggests a current and possible future enhancement of forest carbon uptake due to changes in phenology. This constitutes a negative feedback to climate change, and is serving to slow the rate of warming.« less

Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Mozo, H.; Orlandi, F.; Galan, C.; Fornaciari, M.; Romano, B.; Ruiz, L.; Diaz de La Guardia, C.; Trigo, M. M.; Chuine, I.

2009-03-01

Phenology data are sensitive data to identify how plants are adapted to local climate and how they respond to climatic changes. Modeling flowering phenology allows us to identify the meteorological variables determining the reproductive cycle. Phenology of temperate of woody plants is assumed to be locally adapted to climate. Nevertheless, recent research shows that local adaptation may not be an important constraint in predicting phenological responses. We analyzed variations in flowering dates of Olea europaea L. at different sites of Spain and Italy, testing for a genetic differentiation of flowering phenology among olive varieties to estimate whether local modeling is necessary for olive or not. We build models for the onset and peak dates flowering in different sites of Andalusia and Puglia. Process-based phenological models using temperature as input variable and photoperiod as the threshold date to start temperature accumulation were developed to predict both dates. Our results confirm and update previous results that indicated an advance in olive onset dates. The results indicate that both internal and external validity were higher in the models that used the photoperiod as an indicator to start to cumulate temperature. The use of the unified model for modeling the start and peak dates in the different localities provides standardized results for the comparative study. The use of regional models grouping localities by varieties and climate similarities indicate that local adaptation would not be an important factor in predicting olive phenological responses face to the global temperature increase.

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, T. Jonathan; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Allen, Jenica M.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, Jim; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E.

2013-01-01

Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conser ved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species’ shared evolutionary histories.

Modulation of Sea Ice Melt Onset and Retreat in the Laptev Sea by the Timing of Snow Retreat in the West Siberian Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crawford, A. D.; Stroeve, J.; Serreze, M. C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Horvath, S.

2017-12-01

As much of the Arctic Ocean transitions to ice-free conditions in summer, efforts have increased to improve seasonal forecasts of not only sea ice extent, but also the timing of melt onset and retreat. This research investigates the potential of regional terrestrial snow retreat in spring as a predictor for subsequent sea ice melt onset and retreat in Arctic seas. One pathway involves earlier snow retreat enhancing atmospheric moisture content, which increases downwelling longwave radiation over sea ice cover downstream. Another pathway involves manipulation of jet stream behavior, which may affect the sea ice pack via both dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Although several possible connections between snow and sea ice regions are identified using a mutual information criterion, the physical mechanisms linking snow retreat and sea ice phenology are most clearly exemplified by variability of snow retreat in the West Siberian Plain impacting melt onset and sea ice retreat in the Laptev Sea. The detrended time series of snow retreat in the West Siberian Plain explains 26% of the detrended variance in Laptev Sea melt onset (29% for sea ice retreat). With modest predictive skill and an average time lag of 53 (88) days between snow retreat and sea ice melt onset (retreat), West Siberian Plains snow retreat is useful for refining seasonal sea ice predictions in the Laptev Sea.

Optical Properties of Ice Particles in Young Contrails

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Gang; Feng, Qian; Yang, Ping; Kattawar, George; Minnis, Patrick; Hu, Yong X.

2008-01-01

The single-scattering properties of four types of ice crystals (pure ice crystals, ice crystals with an internal mixture of ice and black carbon, ice crystals coated with black carbon, and soot coated with ice) in young contrails are investigated at wavelengths 0.65 and 2.13 micrometers using Mie codes from coated spheres. The four types of ice crystals have distinct differences in their single-scattering properties because of the embedded black carbon. The bulk scattering properties of young contrails consisting of the four types of ice crystals are further investigated by averaging their single-scattering properties over a typical ice particle size distribution found in young contrails. The effect of the radiative properties of the four types of ice particles on the Stokes parameters I, Q, U, and V is also investigated for different viewing zenith angles and relative azimuth angles with a solar zenith angle of 30 degrees using a vector radiative transfer model based on the adding-doubling technique. The Stokes parameters at a wavelength of 0.65 micrometers show pronounced differences for the four types of ice crystals. Those at a wavelength of 2.13 micrometers show similar variations with the viewing zenith angle and relative azimuth angle, but their values are noticeably different.

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts.

PubMed

Socolar, Jacob B; Epanchin, Peter N; Beissinger, Steven R; Tingley, Morgan W

2017-12-05

Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

A Variable-Instar Climate-Driven Individual Beetle-Based Phenology Model for the Invasive Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Trotter, R Talbot; Keena, Melody A

2016-12-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

A comparison of selected models for estimating cable icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McComber, Pierre; Druez, Jacques; Laflamme, Jean

In many cold climate countries, it is becoming increasingly important to monitor transmission line icing. Indeed, by knowing in advance of localized danger for icing overloads, electric utilities can take measures in time to prevent generalized failure of the power transmission network. Recently in Canada, a study was made to compare the estimation of a few icing models working from meteorological data in estimating ice loads for freezing rain events. The models tested were using only standard meteorological parameters, i.e. wind speed and direction, temperature and precipitation rate. This study has shown that standard meteorological parameters can only achieve very limited accuracy, especially for longer icing events. However, with the help of an additional instrument monitoring the icing rate intensity, a significant improvement in model prediction might be achieved. The icing rate meter (IRM) which counts icing and de-icing cycles per unit time on a standard probe can be used to estimate the icing intensity. A cable icing estimation is then made by taking into consideration the accretion size, temperature, wind speed and direction, and precipitation rate. In this paper, a comparison is made between the predictions of two previously tested models (one obtained and the other reconstructed from their description in the public literature) and of a model based on the icing rate meter readings. The models are tested against nineteen events recorded on an icing test line at Mt. Valin, Canada, during the winter season 1991-1992. These events are mostly rime resulting from in-cloud icing. However, freezing rain and wet snow events were also recorded. Results indicate that a significant improvement in the estimation is attained by using the icing rate meter data together with the other standard meteorological parameters.

Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

Treesearch

James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

2009-01-01

It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

Automated connectionist-geostatistical classification as an approach to identify sea ice and land ice types, properties and provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goetz-Weiss, L. R.; Herzfeld, U. C.; Trantow, T.; Hunke, E. C.; Maslanik, J. A.; Crocker, R. I.

2016-12-01

An important problem in model-data comparison is the identification of parameters that can be extracted from observational data as well as used in numerical models, which are typically based on idealized physical processes. Here, we present a suite of approaches to characterization and classification of sea ice and land ice types, properties and provinces based on several types of remote-sensing data. Applications will be given to not only illustrate the approach, but employ it in model evaluation and understanding of physical processes. (1) In a geostatistical characterization, spatial sea-ice properties in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea and in Elsoon Lagoon are derived from analysis of RADARSAT and ERS-2 SAR data. (2) The analysis is taken further by utilizing multi-parameter feature vectors as inputs for unsupervised and supervised statistical classification, which facilitates classification of different sea-ice types. (3) Characteristic sea-ice parameters, as resultant from the classification, can then be applied in model evaluation, as demonstrated for the ridging scheme of the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, using high-resolution altimeter and image data collected from unmanned aircraft over Fram Strait during the Characterization of Arctic Sea Ice Experiment (CASIE). The characteristic parameters chosen in this application are directly related to deformation processes, which also underly the ridging scheme. (4) The method that is capable of the most complex classification tasks is the connectionist-geostatistical classification method. This approach has been developed to identify currently up to 18 different crevasse types in order to map progression of the surge through the complex Bering-Bagley Glacier System, Alaska, in 2011-2014. The analysis utilizes airborne altimeter data and video image data and satellite image data. Results of the crevasse classification are compare to fracture modeling and found to match.

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data.

PubMed

Templ, Barbara; Koch, Elisabeth; Bolmgren, Kjell; Ungersböck, Markus; Paul, Anita; Scheifinger, Helfried; Rutishauser, This; Busto, Montserrat; Chmielewski, Frank-M; Hájková, Lenka; Hodzić, Sabina; Kaspar, Frank; Pietragalla, Barbara; Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Tolvanen, Anne; Vučetič, Višnja; Zimmermann, Kirsten; Zust, Ana

2018-06-01

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templ, Barbara; Koch, Elisabeth; Bolmgren, Kjell; Ungersböck, Markus; Paul, Anita; Scheifinger, Helfried; Rutishauser, This; Busto, Montserrat; Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Hájková, Lenka; Hodzić, Sabina; Kaspar, Frank; Pietragalla, Barbara; Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Tolvanen, Anne; Vučetič, Višnja; Zimmermann, Kirsten; Zust, Ana

2018-02-01

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/. Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Active/passive microwave sensor comparison of MIZ-ice concentration estimates. [Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, B. A.; Cavalieri, D. J.; Keller, M. R.

1986-01-01

Active and passive microwave data collected during the 1984 summer Marginal Ice Zone Experiment in the Fram Strait (MIZEX 84) are used to compare ice concentration estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to those obtained from passive microwave imagery at several frequencies. The comparison is carried out to evaluate SAR performance against the more established passive microwave technique, and to investigate discrepancies in terms of how ice surface conditions, imaging geometry, and choice of algorithm parameters affect each sensor. Active and passive estimates of ice concentration agree on average to within 12%. Estimates from the multichannel passive microwave data show best agreement with the SAR estimates because the multichannel algorithm effectively accounts for the range in ice floe brightness temperatures observed in the MIZ.

'Scaling' analysis of the ice accretion process on aircraft surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keshock, E. G.; Tabrizi, A. H.; Missimer, J. R.

1982-01-01

A comprehensive set of scaling parameters is developed for the ice accretion process by analyzing the energy equations of the dynamic freezing zone and the already frozen ice layer, the continuity equation associated with supercooled liquid droplets entering into and impacting within the dynamic freezing zone, and energy equation of the ice layer. No initial arbitrary judgments are made regarding the relative magnitudes of each of the terms. The method of intrinsic reference variables in employed in order to develop the appropriate scaling parameters and their relative significance in rime icing conditions in an orderly process, rather than utilizing empiricism. The significance of these parameters is examined and the parameters are combined with scaling criteria related to droplet trajectory similitude.

Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants.

PubMed

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Wagner, David; Danforth, Bryan N; Colla, Sheila; Kornbluth, Sarah; Winfree, Rachael

2011-12-20

The phenology of many ecological processes is modulated by temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climate change. Mutualistic interactions may be especially vulnerable because of the potential for phenological mismatching if the species involved do not respond similarly to changes in temperature. Here we present an analysis of climate-associated shifts in the phenology of wild bees, the most important pollinators worldwide, and compare these shifts to published studies of bee-pollinated plants over the same time period. We report that over the past 130 y, the phenology of 10 bee species from northeastern North America has advanced by a mean of 10.4 ± 1.3 d. Most of this advance has taken place since 1970, paralleling global temperature increases. When the best available data are used to estimate analogous rates of advance for plants, these rates are not distinguishable from those of bees, suggesting that bee emergence is keeping pace with shifts in host-plant flowering, at least among the generalist species that we investigated.

Ground-based imaging spectrometry of canopy phenology and chemistry in a deciduous forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toomey, M. P.; Friedl, M. A.; Frolking, S. E.; Hilker, T.; O'Keefe, J.; Richardson, A. D.

2013-12-01

Phenology, annual life cycles of plants and animals, is a dynamic ecosystem attribute and an important feedback to climate change. Vegetation phenology is commonly monitored at canopy to continental scales using ground based digital repeat photography and satellite remote sensing, respectively. Existing systems which provide sufficient temporal resolution for phenological monitoring, however, lack the spectral resolution necessary to investigate the coupling of phenology with canopy chemistry (e.g. chlorophyll, nitrogen, lignin-cellulose content). Some researchers have used narrowband (<10 nm resolution) spectrometers at phenology monitoring sites, yielding new insights into seasonal changes in leaf biochemistry. Such instruments integrate the spectral characteristics of the entire canopy, however, masking considerable variability between species and plant functional types. There is an opportunity, then, for exploring the potential of imaging spectrometers to investigate the coupling of canopy phenology and the leaf biochemistry of individual trees. During the growing season of April-October 2013 we deployed an imaging spectrometer with a spectral range of 371-1042 nm and resolution of ~5 nm (Surface Optics Corporation 710; San Diego, CA) on a 35 m tall tower at the Harvard Forest, Massachusetts. The image resolution was ~0.25 megapixels and the field of view encompassed approximately 20 individual tree crowns at a distance of 20-40 m. The instrument was focused on a mixed hardwoods canopy composed of 4 deciduous tree species and one coniferous tree species. Scanning was performed daily with an acquisition frequency of 30 minutes during daylight hours. Derived imagery were used to calculate a suite of published spectral indices used to estimate foliar content of key pigments: cholorophyll, carotenoids and anthocyanins. Additionally, we calculated the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) as well as the position and slope of the red edge as indicators of mid- to

Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan

2013-01-01

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

Disentangling climate change effects on species interactions: effects of temperature, phenological shifts, and body size.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W; Singh, Manasvini

2013-11-01

Climate-mediated shifts in species' phenologies are expected to alter species interactions, but predicting the consequences of this is difficult because phenological shifts may be driven by different climate factors that may or may not be correlated. Temperature could be an important factor determining effects of phenological shifts by altering species' growth rates and thereby the relative size ratios of interacting species. We tested this hypothesis by independently manipulating temperature and the relative hatching phenologies of two competing amphibian species. Relative shifts in hatching time generally altered the strength of competition, but the presence and magnitude of this effect was temperature dependent and joint effects of temperature and hatching phenology were non-additive. Species that hatched relatively early or late performed significantly better or worse, respectively, but only at higher temperatures and not at lower temperatures. As a consequence, climate-mediated shifts in hatching phenology or temperature resulted in stronger or weaker effects than expected when both factors acted in concert. Furthermore, consequences of phenological shifts were asymmetric; arriving relatively early had disproportional stronger (or weaker) effects than arriving relatively late, and this varied with species identity. However, consistent with recent theory, these seemingly idiosyncratic effects of phenological shifts could be explained by species-specific differences in growth rates across temperatures and concordant shifts in relative body size of interacting species. Our results emphasize the need to account for environmental conditions when predicting the effects of phenological shifts, and suggest that shifts in size-structured interactions can mediate the impact of climate change on natural communities.

Phenology, dichogamy, and floral synchronization in a northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seed orchard

Treesearch

Lisa W. Alexander; Keith E. Woeste

2016-01-01

We developed a novel scoring system to assess spring phenology in a northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) clonal seed orchard. The system was used to score from 304 to 364 ramets for three reproductive seasons and to place clones into early, intermediate, and late phenology classes. Although the absolute number of clones in each phenological class...

Detecting mismatches of bird migration stopover and tree phenology in response to changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kellermann, Jherime L.; van Riper, Charles

2015-01-01

Migratory birds exploit seasonal variation in resources across latitudes, timing migration to coincide with the phenology of food at stopover sites. Differential responses to climate in phenology across trophic levels can result in phenological mismatch; however, detecting mismatch is sensitive to methodology. We examined patterns of migrant abundance and tree flowering, phenological mismatch, and the influence of climate during spring migration from 2009 to 2011 across five habitat types of the Madrean Sky Islands in southeastern Arizona, USA. We used two metrics to assess phenological mismatch: synchrony and overlap. We also examined whether phenological overlap declined with increasing difference in mean event date of phenophases. Migrant abundance and tree flowering generally increased with minimum spring temperature but depended on annual climate by habitat interactions. Migrant abundance was lowest and flowering was highest under cold, snowy conditions in high elevation montane conifer habitat while bird abundance was greatest and flowering was lowest in low elevation riparian habitat under the driest conditions. Phenological synchrony and overlap were unique and complementary metrics and should both be used when assessing mismatch. Overlap declined due to asynchronous phenologies but also due to reduced migrant abundance or flowering when synchrony was actually maintained. Overlap declined with increasing difference in event date and this trend was strongest in riparian areas. Montane habitat specialists may be at greatest risk of mismatch while riparian habitat could provide refugia during dry years for phenotypically plastic species. Interannual climate patterns that we observed match climate change projections for the arid southwest, altering stopover habitat condition.

Automated processing of webcam images for phenological classification.

PubMed

Bothmann, Ludwig; Menzel, Annette; Menze, Bjoern H; Schunk, Christian; Kauermann, Göran

2017-01-01

Along with the global climate change, there is an increasing interest for its effect on phenological patterns such as start and end of the growing season. Scientific digital webcams are used for this purpose taking every day one or more images from the same natural motive showing for example trees or grassland sites. To derive phenological patterns from the webcam images, regions of interest are manually defined on these images by an expert and subsequently a time series of percentage greenness is derived and analyzed with respect to structural changes. While this standard approach leads to satisfying results and allows to determine dates of phenological change points, it is associated with a considerable amount of manual work and is therefore constrained to a limited number of webcams only. In particular, this forbids to apply the phenological analysis to a large network of publicly accessible webcams in order to capture spatial phenological variation. In order to be able to scale up the analysis to several hundreds or thousands of webcams, we propose and evaluate two automated alternatives for the definition of regions of interest, allowing for efficient analyses of webcam images. A semi-supervised approach selects pixels based on the correlation of the pixels' time series of percentage greenness with a few prototype pixels. An unsupervised approach clusters pixels based on scores of a singular value decomposition. We show for a scientific webcam that the resulting regions of interest are at least as informative as those chosen by an expert with the advantage that no manual action is required. Additionally, we show that the methods can even be applied to publicly available webcams accessed via the internet yielding interesting partitions of the analyzed images. Finally, we show that the methods are suitable for the intended big data applications by analyzing 13988 webcams from the AMOS database. All developed methods are implemented in the statistical software

Automated processing of webcam images for phenological classification

PubMed Central

Bothmann, Ludwig; Menzel, Annette; Menze, Bjoern H.; Schunk, Christian; Kauermann, Göran

2017-01-01

Along with the global climate change, there is an increasing interest for its effect on phenological patterns such as start and end of the growing season. Scientific digital webcams are used for this purpose taking every day one or more images from the same natural motive showing for example trees or grassland sites. To derive phenological patterns from the webcam images, regions of interest are manually defined on these images by an expert and subsequently a time series of percentage greenness is derived and analyzed with respect to structural changes. While this standard approach leads to satisfying results and allows to determine dates of phenological change points, it is associated with a considerable amount of manual work and is therefore constrained to a limited number of webcams only. In particular, this forbids to apply the phenological analysis to a large network of publicly accessible webcams in order to capture spatial phenological variation. In order to be able to scale up the analysis to several hundreds or thousands of webcams, we propose and evaluate two automated alternatives for the definition of regions of interest, allowing for efficient analyses of webcam images. A semi-supervised approach selects pixels based on the correlation of the pixels’ time series of percentage greenness with a few prototype pixels. An unsupervised approach clusters pixels based on scores of a singular value decomposition. We show for a scientific webcam that the resulting regions of interest are at least as informative as those chosen by an expert with the advantage that no manual action is required. Additionally, we show that the methods can even be applied to publicly available webcams accessed via the internet yielding interesting partitions of the analyzed images. Finally, we show that the methods are suitable for the intended big data applications by analyzing 13988 webcams from the AMOS database. All developed methods are implemented in the statistical software

The Use of Geostatistics in the Study of Floral Phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link

PubMed Central

León Ruiz, Eduardo J.; García Mozo, Herminia; Domínguez Vilches, Eugenio; Galán, Carmen

2012-01-01

Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered troughout the city and low mountains in the “Sierra de Córdoba” were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to ellaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps. PMID:22629169

The use of geostatistics in the study of floral phenology of Vulpia geniculata (L.) link.

PubMed

León Ruiz, Eduardo J; García Mozo, Herminia; Domínguez Vilches, Eugenio; Galán, Carmen

2012-01-01

Traditionally phenology studies have been focused on changes through time, but there exist many instances in ecological research where it is necessary to interpolate among spatially stratified samples. The combined use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Geostatistics can be an essential tool for spatial analysis in phenological studies. Geostatistics are a family of statistics that describe correlations through space/time and they can be used for both quantifying spatial correlation and interpolating unsampled points. In the present work, estimations based upon Geostatistics and GIS mapping have enabled the construction of spatial models that reflect phenological evolution of Vulpia geniculata (L.) Link throughout the study area during sampling season. Ten sampling points, scattered throughout the city and low mountains in the "Sierra de Córdoba" were chosen to carry out the weekly phenological monitoring during flowering season. The phenological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatitical method of Kriging, which was used to elaborate weekly estimations of V. geniculata phenology in unsampled areas. Finally, the application of Geostatistics and GIS to create phenological maps could be an essential complement in pollen aerobiological studies, given the increased interest in obtaining automatic aerobiological forecasting maps.

Monitoring Phenology of Coastal Marshes in Louisiana using the Landsat Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Y.; Kearney, M.

2016-12-01

Coastal marshes are important sinks for blue carbon—carbon sequestered by coastal and marine ecosystems. Remote sensing phenology of the marshes is a good indicator for their ability to sequester carbon, which, however, is seldom addressed in the literature. This study aims to better understand phenology of coastal marshes in Louisiana using NDVI derived from a compilation the Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI archive (30 m resolution) since 1984 to present. The environmental variables (i.e. annual temperature, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 concentration) of the study area all increased significantly overtime, showing that the study area is subject to climate change. However, marsh phenological parameters, including its peak NDVI, show no significant trend over time. This finding contrasts with the reported increase in summer photosynthetic activity of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere, which is attributed to the increase in global temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Such differences might be due to marsh physiological characteristics and the local environmental alterations. Coastal marshes in Louisiana contain many C4 species. The C4 photosynthesis pathway is less responsive to atmospheric CO2 concentration compared to the C3 photosynthesis. Coastal marshes thus respond to the elevated atmospheric CO2 differently compared to other ecosystems at middle to higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Another possible reason is that, while benefiting from the increased atmospheric CO2, coastal marshes are also undergoing significant stresses caused by sea level rise (e.g. submergence, and storm-induced floods and surges), which can offset the positive effects resulted from the increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis. Our results suggest that coastal marshes might respond to climate change much differently from other ecosystems, but further investigation is required in order to better protect the ecosystem and its carbon storage under the

Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urban, Nathan Mark

The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

Species- and community-level responses combine to drive phenology of lake phytoplankton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, Annika; Sagrario, María de los Ángeles González; Schindler, Daniel E.

2013-01-01

Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962-2000. During this time the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

PubMed Central

Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-01-01

Abstract Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. PMID:25783745

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants.

PubMed

Munson, Seth M; Sher, Anna A

2015-08-01

• Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species can be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their limited abundance and distribution.• We tracked the phenology of rare and endemic species, which are identified as imperiled, across three different habitat types with herbarium records to determine if flowering time has changed over the last century, and if phenological change was related to shifts in climate.• We found that the flowering date of rare species has accelerated 3.1 d every decade (42 d total) since the late 1800s, with plants in sagebrush interbasins showing the strongest accelerations in phenology. High winter temperatures were associated with the acceleration of phenology in low elevation sagebrush and barren river habitats, whereas high spring temperatures explained accelerated phenology in the high elevation alpine habitat. In contrast, high spring temperatures delayed the phenology of plant species in the two low-elevation habitats and precipitation had mixed effects depending on the season.• These results provide evidence for large shifts in the phenology of rare Rocky Mountain plants related to climate, which can have strong effects on plant fitness, the abundance of associated wildlife, and the future of plant conservation in mountainous regions. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

Phenological mismatch and the effectiveness of assisted gene flow.

PubMed

Wadgymar, Susana M; Weis, Arthur E

2017-06-01

The persistence of narrowly adapted species under climate change will depend on their ability to migrate apace with their historical climatic envelope or to adapt in place to maintain fitness. This second path to persistence can only occur if there is sufficient genetic variance for response to new selection regimes. Inadequate levels of genetic variation can be remedied through assisted gene flow (AGF), that is the intentional introduction of individuals genetically adapted to localities with historic climates similar to the current or future climate experienced by the resident population. However, the timing of reproduction is frequently adapted to local conditions. Phenological mismatch between residents and migrants can reduce resident × migrant mating frequencies, slowing the introgression of migrant alleles into the resident genetic background and impeding evolutionary rescue efforts. Focusing on plants, we devised a method to estimate the frequency of resident × migrant matings based on flowering schedules and applied it in an experiment that mimicked the first generation of an AGF program with Chamaecrista fasciculata, a prairie annual, under current and expected future temperature regimes. Phenological mismatch reduced the potential for resident × migrant matings by 40-90%, regardless of thermal treatment. The most successful migrant sires were the most resident like in their flowering time, further biasing the genetic admixture between resident and migrant populations. Other loci contributing to local adaptation-heat-tolerance genes, for instance-may be in linkage disequilibrium with phenology when residents and migrants are combined into a single mating pool. Thus, introgression of potentially adaptive migrant alleles into the resident genetic background is slowed when selection acts against migrant phenology. Successful AGF programs may require sustained high immigration rates or preliminary breeding programs when phenologically matched migrant

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

2013-08-01

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, J. Y.

2017-12-01

Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall

Shifting and extension of phenological periods with increasing temperature along elevational transects in southern Bavaria.

PubMed

Schuster, C; Estrella, N; Menzel, A

2014-03-01

The impact of global warming on phenology has been widely studied, and almost consistently advancing spring events have been reported. Especially in alpine regions, an extraordinary rapid warming has been observed in the last decades. However, little is known about phenological phases over the whole vegetation period at high elevations. We observed 12 phenological phases of seven tree species and measured air temperature at 42 sites along four transects of about 1000 m elevational range in the years 2010 and 2011 near Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Site- and species-specific onset dates for the phenological phases were determined and related to elevation, temperature lapse rates and site-specific temperature sums. Increasing temperatures induced advanced spring and delayed autumn phases, in which both yielded similar magnitudes. Delayed leaf senescence could therefore have been underestimated until now in extending the vegetation period. Not only the vegetation period, but also phenological periods extended with increasing temperature. Moreover, sensitivity to elevation and temperature strongly depends on the specific phenological phase. Differences between species and groups of species (deciduous, evergreen, high elevation) were found in onset dates, phenological response rates and also in the effect of chilling and forcing temperatures. Increased chilling days highly reduced forcing temperature requirements for deciduous trees, but less for evergreen trees. The problem of shifted species associations and phenological mismatches due to species-specific responses to increasing temperature is a recent topic in ecological research. Therefore, we consider our findings from this novel, dense observation network in an alpine area of particular importance to deepen knowledge on phenological responses to climate change. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

The influence of altitude and urbanisation on trends and mean dates in phenology (1980-2009).

PubMed

Jochner, Susanne C; Sparks, Tim H; Estrella, Nicole; Menzel, Annette

2012-03-01

Long-term studies on urban phenology using network data are commonly limited by the small number of observation sites within city centres. Moreover, cities are often located on major rivers and consequently at lower altitudes than their rural surroundings. For these reasons, it is important (1) to go beyond a plain urban-rural comparison by taking the degree of urbanisation into account, and (2) to evaluate urbanisation and altitudinal effects simultaneously. Temporal phenological trends (1980-2009) for nine phenological spring events centred on the German cities of Frankfurt, Cologne and Munich were analysed. Trends of phenological onset dates were negative (i.e. earlier onset in phenology) for 96% of the 808 time series and significantly negative for 56% of the total number. Mean trends for the nine phenological events ranged between -0.23 days year(-1) for beech and -0.50 days year(-1) for hazel. The dependence of these trends and of mean dates on altitude and on the degree of urbanisation was explored. For mean dates, we demonstrated an earlier phenological onset at lower altitude and with a higher degree of urbanisation: altitude effects were highly significant and ranged between 1.34 days (100 m)(-1) (beech) and 4.27 days (100 m)(-1) (hazel). Coefficients for the log-transformed urban index were statistically significant for five events and varied greatly between events (coefficients from -1.74 for spruce to -5.08 for hazel). For trends in phenology, altitude was only significant for Norway maple, and no urban effects were significant. Hence, trends in phenology did not change significantly with higher altitudes or urbanised areas.

Laboratory Investigation of Direct Measurement of Ice Water Content, Ice Surface Area, and Effective Radius of Ice Crystals Using a Laser-Diffraction Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerber, H.; DeMott, P. J.; Rogers, D. C.

1995-01-01

The aircraft microphysics probe, PVM-100A, was tested in the Colorado State University dynamic cloud chamber to establish its ability to measure ice water content (IWC), PSA, and Re in ice clouds. Its response was compared to other means of measuring those ice-cloud parameters that included using FSSP-100 and 230-X 1-D optical probes for ice-crystal concentrations, a film-loop microscope for ice-crystal habits and dimensions, and an in-situ microscope for determining ice-crystal orientation. Intercomparisons were made in ice clouds containing ice crystals ranging in size from about 10 microns to 150 microns diameter, and ice crystals with plate, columnar, dendritic, and spherical shapes. It was not possible to determine conclusively that the PVM accurately measures IWC, PSA, and Re of ice crystals, because heat from the PVM evaporated in part the crystals in its vicinity in the chamber thus affecting its measurements. Similarities in the operating principle of the FSSP and PVM, and a comparison between Re measured by both instruments, suggest, however, that the PVM can make those measurements. The resolution limit of the PVM for IWC measurements was found to be on the order of 0.001 g/cubic m. Algorithms for correcting IWC measured by FSSP and PVM were developed.

Scaling forest phenology from trees to the landscape using an unmanned aerial vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klosterman, S.; Melaas, E. K.; Martinez, A.; Richardson, A. D.

2013-12-01

Vegetation phenology monitoring has yielded a decades-long archive documenting the impacts of global change on the biosphere. However, the coarse spatial resolution of remote sensing obscures the organismic level processes driving phenology, while point measurements on the ground limit the extent of observation. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) enable low altitude remote sensing at higher spatial and temporal resolution than available from space borne platforms, and have the potential to elucidate the links between organism scale processes and landscape scale analyses of terrestrial phenology. This project demonstrates the use of a low cost multirotor UAV, equipped with a consumer grade digital camera, for observation of deciduous forest phenology and comparison to ground- and tower-based data as well as remote sensing. The UAV was flown approximately every five days during the spring green-up period in 2013, to obtain aerial photography over an area encompassing a 250m resolution MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) pixel at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA. The imagery was georeferenced and tree crowns were identified using a detailed species map of the study area. Image processing routines were used to extract canopy 'greenness' time series, which were used to calculate phenology transition dates corresponding to early, middle, and late stages of spring green-up for the dominant canopy trees. Aggregated species level phenology estimates from the UAV data, including the mean and variance of phenology transition dates within species in the study area, were compared to model predictions based on visual assessment of a smaller sample size of individual trees, indicating the extent to which limited ground observations represent the larger landscape. At an intermediate scale, the UAV data was compared to data from repeat digital photography, integrating over larger portions of canopy within and near the study area, as a validation step and

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J

2015-01-01

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

Ocean Wave-to-Ice Energy Transfer Determined from Seafloor Pressure and Ice Shelf Seismic Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Bromirski, P. D.; Gerstoft, P.; Stephen, R. A.; Wiens, D.; Aster, R. C.; Nyblade, A.

2017-12-01

Ice shelves play an important role in buttressing land ice from reaching the sea, thus restraining the rate of sea level rise. Long-period gravity wave impacts excite vibrations in ice shelves that may trigger tabular iceberg calving and/or ice shelf collapse events. Three kinds of seismic plate waves were continuously observed by broadband seismic arrays on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) and on the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) ice shelf: (1) flexural-gravity waves, (2) flexural waves, and (3) extensional Lamb waves, suggesting that all West Antarctic ice shelves are subjected to similar gravity wave excitation. Ocean gravity wave heights were estimated from pressure perturbations recorded by an ocean bottom differential pressure gauge at the RIS front, water depth 741 m, about 8 km north of an on-ice seismic station that is 2 km from the shelf front. Combining the plate wave spectrum, the frequency-dependent energy transmission and reflection at the ice-water interface were determined. In addition, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio of the RIS are estimated from the plate wave motions, and compared with the widely used values. Quantifying these ice shelf parameters from observations will improve modeling of ice shelf response to ocean forcing, and ice shelf evolution.

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templ, Barbara; Koch, Elisabeth; Bolmgren, Kjell; Ungersböck, Markus; Paul, Anita; Scheifinger, Helfried; Rutishauser, This; Busto, Montserrat; Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Hájková, Lenka; Hodzić, Sabina; Kaspar, Frank; Pietragalla, Barbara; Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Tolvanen, Anne; Vučetič, Višnja; Zimmermann, Kirsten; Zust, Ana

2018-06-01

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Responses of spring phenology to climate warming reduced over the past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yongshuo. H.; Zhao, hongfang; piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Penuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan. A.

2016-04-01

The phenology of spring leaf unfolding is one of the key indicators of the climate change on ecosystems, and influences regional and hemispheric-scale carbon balances and plant-animal interactions. Changes in the phenology of spring leaf unfolding can also exert biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget. Recent studies have reported significant advances in spring phenology as a result of warming in most northern hemisphere regions. Climate warming is projected to further increase, but the future evolution of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding remains uncertain - in view of the imperfect understanding of how the underlying mechanisms respond to environmental stimuli. In addition, the relative contributions of each environmental stimulus, which together define the apparent temperature sensitivity of the phenology of spring leaf unfolding (advances in days per degree Celsius warming, ST), may also change over time. An improved characterization of the variation in phenological responses to spring temperature is thus valuable, provided that it addresses temporal and spatial scales relevant for regional projections. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, we show here that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance per ° C) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days ° C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days ° C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24%-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also play a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates

Characteristics of vegetation phenology over the Alaskan landscape using AVHRR time-series data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markon, Carl J.; Fleming, Michael D.; Binnian, Emily F.

1995-01-01

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data were acquired and composited into twice-a-month periods from 1 May 1991 to 15 October 1991 in order to map vegetation characteristics of the Alaskan landscape. Unique spatial and temporal qualities of the AVHRR data provide information that leads to a better understanding of regional biophysical characteristics of vegetation communities and patterns. These data provided synoptic views of the landscape and depicted phenological diversity, temporal vegetation phenology (green-up, peak of green, and senescence), photosynthetic activity, and regional landscape patterns. Products generated from the data included a phenological class map, phenological composite maps (onset, peak, and duration), and photosynthetic activity maps (mean and maximum greenness). The time-series data provide opportunities to study phenological processes at small landscape scales over time periods of weeks, months, and years. Regional patterns identified on some of the maps are unique to specific areas; others correspond to biophysical or ecoregional boundaries. The data provide new insights to landscape processes, ecology, and landscape physiognomy that allow scientists to look at landscapes in ways that were previously difficult to achieve.

Environmental Predictors of Ice Seal Presence in the Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Miksis-Olds, Jennifer L.

2014-01-01

Ice seals overwintering in the Bering Sea are challenged with foraging, finding mates, and maintaining breathing holes in a dark and ice covered environment. Due to the difficulty of studying these species in their natural environment, very little is known about how the seals navigate under ice. Here we identify specific environmental parameters, including components of the ambient background sound, that are predictive of ice seal presence in the Bering Sea. Multi-year mooring deployments provided synoptic time series of acoustic and oceanographic parameters from which environmental parameters predictive of species presence were identified through a series of mixed models. Ice cover and 10 kHz sound level were significant predictors of seal presence, with 40 kHz sound and prey presence (combined with ice cover) as potential predictors as well. Ice seal presence showed a strong positive correlation with ice cover and a negative association with 10 kHz environmental sound. On average, there was a 20–30 dB difference between sound levels during solid ice conditions compared to open water or melting conditions, providing a salient acoustic gradient between open water and solid ice conditions by which ice seals could orient. By constantly assessing the acoustic environment associated with the seasonal ice movement in the Bering Sea, it is possible that ice seals could utilize aspects of the soundscape to gauge their safe distance to open water or the ice edge by orienting in the direction of higher sound levels indicative of open water, especially in the frequency range above 1 kHz. In rapidly changing Arctic and sub-Arctic environments, the seasonal ice conditions and soundscapes are likely to change which may impact the ability of animals using ice presence and cues to successfully function during the winter breeding season. PMID:25229453

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Modeling of the effect of freezer conditions on the principal constituent parameters of ice cream by using response surface methodology.

PubMed

Inoue, K; Ochi, H; Taketsuka, M; Saito, H; Sakurai, K; Ichihashi, N; Iwatsuki, K; Kokubo, S

2008-05-01

A systematic analysis was carried out by using response surface methodology to create a quantitative model of the synergistic effects of conditions in a continuous freezer [mix flow rate (L/h), overrun (%), cylinder pressure (kPa), drawing temperature ( degrees C), and dasher speed (rpm)] on the principal constituent parameters of ice cream [rate of fat destabilization (%), mean air cell diameter (mum), and mean ice crystal diameter (mum)]. A central composite face-centered design was used for this study. Thirty-one combinations of the 5 above-mentioned freezer conditions were designed (including replicates at the center point), and ice cream samples were manufactured and examined in a continuous freezer under the selected conditions. The responses were the 3 variables given above. A quadratic model was constructed, with the freezer conditions as the independent variables and the ice cream characteristics as the dependent variables. The coefficients of determination (R(2)) were greater than 0.9 for all 3 responses, but Q(2), the index used here for the capability of the model for predicting future observed values of the responses, was negative for both the mean ice crystal diameter and the mean air cell diameter. Therefore, pruned models were constructed by removing terms that had contributed little to the prediction in the original model and by refitting the regression model. It was demonstrated that these pruned models provided good fits to the data in terms of R(2), Q(2), and ANOVA. The effects of freezer conditions were expressed quantitatively in terms of the 3 responses. The drawing temperature ( degrees C) was found to have a greater effect on ice cream characteristics than any of the other factors.

Extraction of Ice Sheet Layers from Two Intersected Radar Echograms Near Neem Ice Core in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, S.; Muller, J.-P.

2016-06-01

Accumulation of snow and ice over time result in ice sheet layers. These can be remotely sensed where there is a contrast in electromagnetic properties, which reflect variations of the ice density, acidity and fabric orientation. Internal ice layers are assumed to be isochronous, deep beneath the ice surface, and parallel to the direction of ice flow. The distribution of internal layers is related to ice sheet dynamics, such as the basal melt rate, basal elevation variation and changes in ice flow mode, which are important parameters to model the ice sheet. Radar echo sounder is an effective instrument used to study the sedimentology of the Earth and planets. Ice Penetrating Radar (IPR) is specific kind of radar echo sounder, which extends studies of ice sheets from surface to subsurface to deep internal ice sheets depending on the frequency utilised. In this study, we examine a study site where folded ice occurs in the internal ice sheet south of the North Greenland Eemian ice drilling (NEEM) station, where two intersected radar echograms acquired by the Multi-channel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) employed in the NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission imaged this folded ice. We propose a slice processing flow based on a Radon Transform to trace and extract these two sets of curved ice sheet layers, which can then be viewed in 3-D, demonstrating the 3-D structure of the ice folds.

Phenological observations made by the I. R. Bohemian Patriotic-Economic Society, 1828-1847

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Bělínová, Monika; Rožnovský, Jaroslav

2011-08-01

Scholarly and economic management societies played an important role in the beginnings of meteorological observations in Central Europe. In Bohemia, one such was the "Imperial Royal Patriotic-Economic Society of Bohemia" which, as well as making meteorological observations, organised a network of phenological stations and published the results of their observations from 1828 to 1847. The phenological observations covered 31 different forest plants, fruit trees and field-crops. Some of the phenological stations continued to make observations within the network of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Earth Magnetism established in Vienna in 1851. Analysis of the above observations led to the collation of information on the temporal and spatial distribution of the observed phenological characteristics (beginning of budding and/or foliage, beginning and end of flowering, ripeness of seeds and fruits) in the 1828-1847 period, which was cooler and generally wetter with respect to more recent temperature and precipitation patterns (1961-1990) in the study area. Phenophases of flowering and ripeness for selected plants are presented for the Hradec Králové and Loket stations, showing late onsets in this period in comparison with recent phenological stations located nearby and taking measurements in 1993-2009. Working up this topic makes a contribution to the historical phenology of the nineteenth century in the Czech Lands and in Central Europe as well.

Analysis of sea ice dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, J.

1988-01-01

The ongoing work has established the basis for using multiyear sea ice concentrations from SMMR passive microwave for studies of largescale advection and convergence/divergence of the Arctic sea ice pack. Comparisons were made with numerical model simulations and buoy data showing qualitative agreement on daily to interannual time scales. Analysis of the 7-year SMMR data set shows significant interannual variations in the total area of multiyear ice. The scientific objective is to investigate the dynamics, mass balance, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice pack. The research emphasizes the direct application of sea ice parameters derived from passive microwave data (SMMR and SSMI) and collaborative studies using a sea ice dynamics model. The possible causes of observed interannual variations in the multiyear ice area are being examined. The relative effects of variations in the large scale advection and convergence/divergence within the ice pack on a regional and seasonal basis are investigated. The effects of anomolous atmospheric forcings are being examined, including the long-lived effects of synoptic events and monthly variations in the mean geostrophic winds. Estimates to be made will include the amount of new ice production within the ice pack during winter and the amount of ice exported from the pack.

Phenology of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Hemiptera: Adelgidae) in Northern Georgia

Treesearch

Shimar V. Joseph; Albert E. Mayfield; Mark J. Dalusky; Christopher Asaro; C. Wayne. Berisford

2011-01-01

Understanding the seasonal phenology of an insect pest in a specific geographic region is essential for optimizing the timing of management actions or research activities. We examined the phenology of hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae Annand, near the southern limit of the range of eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere, in the Appalachians of northern...

Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Boening, C.; Larour, E. Y.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a thermo-mechanical 2D/3D parallelized finite element software used to physically model the continental-scale flow of ice at high resolutions. Embedded into ISSM are uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools, based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) software. ISSM-DAKOTA offers various UQ methods for the investigation of how errors in model input impact uncertainty in simulation results. We utilize these tools to regionally sample model input and key parameters, based on specified bounds of uncertainty, and run a suite of continental-scale 100-year ISSM forward simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Resulting diagnostics (e.g., spread in local mass flux and regional mass balance) inform our conclusion about which parameters and/or forcing has the greatest impact on century-scale model simulations of ice sheet evolution. The results allow us to prioritize the key datasets and measurements that are critical for the minimization of ice sheet model uncertainty. Overall, we find that Antartica's total sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by errors in bedrock topography. In addition, results suggest that after 100 years of simulation, Thwaites glacier is the most significant source of model uncertainty, and its drainage basin has the largest potential for future sea level contribution. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants

PubMed Central

Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S.; Wagner, David; Danforth, Bryan N.; Colla, Sheila; Kornbluth, Sarah; Winfree, Rachael

2011-01-01

The phenology of many ecological processes is modulated by temperature, making them potentially sensitive to climate change. Mutualistic interactions may be especially vulnerable because of the potential for phenological mismatching if the species involved do not respond similarly to changes in temperature. Here we present an analysis of climate-associated shifts in the phenology of wild bees, the most important pollinators worldwide, and compare these shifts to published studies of bee-pollinated plants over the same time period. We report that over the past 130 y, the phenology of 10 bee species from northeastern North America has advanced by a mean of 10.4 ± 1.3 d. Most of this advance has taken place since 1970, paralleling global temperature increases. When the best available data are used to estimate analogous rates of advance for plants, these rates are not distinguishable from those of bees, suggesting that bee emergence is keeping pace with shifts in host-plant flowering, at least among the generalist species that we investigated. PMID:22143794

Swimming Three Ice Miles within Fifteen Hours.

PubMed

Stjepanovic, Mirko; Nikolaidis, Pantelis T.; Knechtle, Beat

2017-08-31

Ice Mile swimming (1608 m in water of below 5 °Celsius) is becoming increasingly popular. This case study aimed to identify body core temperature and selected haematological and biochemical parameters before and after repeated Ice Miles. An experienced ice swimmer completed three consecutive Ice Miles within 15 h. Swim times, body core temperatures, and selected urinary and haematological parameters were recorded. Body core temperature reached its maximum between 5, 8 and 15 min after immersion (37.7°C, 38.1°C, and 38.0°C, respectively). The swimmer suffered hypothermia during the first Ice Mile (35.4°C) and body core temperature dropped furthermore to 34.5°C during recovery after the first Ice Mile. He developed a metabolic acidosis in both the first and the last Ice Mile (pH 7.31 and pH 7.34, respectively). We observed hyperkalaemia ([K⁺] > 5.5 mM) after the second Ice Mile (6.9 mM). This was followed by a drop in [K⁺] to3.7 mM after the third Ice Mile. Anticipatory thermogenesis (i.e. an initial increase of body core temperature after immersion in ice cold water) seems to be a physiological response in a trained athlete. The results suggest that swimming in ice-cold water leads to a metabolic acidosis, which the swimmer compensates with hyperventilation (i.e. leading to respiratory alkalosis). The shift of serum [K⁺] could increase the risk of a cardiac arrhythmia. Further studies addressing the physiology and potential risks of Ice Mile swimming are required to substantiate this finding.

The Role of Silicon Limitation in Phytoplankton Phenology in a Sub-Arctic Fjord System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobbins, W.; Krause, J. W.; Agustí, S.; Duarte, C. M.; Schulz, I. K.; Winding, M.; Rowe, K. A.; Sejr, M.

2017-12-01

Bacillariophyceae (diatoms) are a significant driver of the biological pump and thus various chemical cycles in high latitude ecosystems. Diatoms have an obligate silicon requirement that has been established as a growth-limiting factor in a variety of ecosystems, and silicon availability likely plays an important role in the temporal evolution of high latitude phytoplankton blooms. However, no previous work has been done to assess the progression of this limitation across a full bloom cycle in the West Greenlandic Nuup Kangerlua fjord or equivalent systems with rapidly evolving land-sea-ice interfaces. Here we provide experimental evidence that the Nuup Kangerlua spring bloom is both diatom driven and strongly silicon constrained. Chlorophyll concentration and growth rates derived from biogenic silica measurements peaked contemporaneously; indicating diatoms were primary members of the phytoplankton assemblage. Moreover, incubation experiments revealed strong biomass increases in response to silicon additions during the bloom period. This work shows silicon availability may play a significant role in bloom phenology in the Nuup Kangerlua fjord.

Real-Time Cloud, Radiation, and Aircraft Icing Parameters from GOES over the USA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnis, Patrick; Nguyen, Louis; Smith, William, Jr.; Young, David; Khaiyer, Mandana; Palikonda, Rabindra; Spangenberg, Douglas; Doelling, Dave; Phan, Dung; Nowicki, Greg

2004-01-01

A preliminary new, physically based method for realtime estimation of the probability of icing conditions has been demonstrated using merged GOES-10 and 12 data over the continental United States and southern Canada. The algorithm produces pixel-level cloud and radiation properties as well as an estimate of icing probability with an associated intensity rating Because icing depends on so many different variables, such as aircraft size or air speed, it is not possible to achieve 100% success with this or any other type of approach. This initial algorithm, however, shows great promise for diagnosing aircraft icing and putting it at the correct altitude within 0.5 km most of the time. Much additional research must be completed before it can serve as a reliable input for the operational CIP. The delineation of the icing layer vertical boundaries will need to be improved using either the RUC or balloon soundings or ceilometer data to adjust the cloud base height, a change that would require adjustment of the cloud-top altitude also.

Importance of aggregation and small ice crystals in cirrus clouds, based on observations and an ice particle growth model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, David L.; Chai, Steven K.; Dong, Yayi; Arnott, W. Patrick; Hallett, John

1993-01-01

The 1 November 1986 FIRE I case study was used to test an ice particle growth model which predicts bimodal size spectra in cirrus clouds. The model was developed from an analytically based model which predicts the height evolution of monomodal ice particle size spectra from the measured ice water content (IWC). Size spectra from the monomodal model are represented by a gamma distribution, N(D) = N(sub o)D(exp nu)exp(-lambda D), where D = ice particle maximum dimension. The slope parameter, lambda, and the parameter N(sub o) are predicted from the IWC through the growth processes of vapor diffusion and aggregation. The model formulation is analytical, computationally efficient, and well suited for incorporation into larger models. The monomodal model has been validated against two other cirrus cloud case studies. From the monomodal size spectra, the size distributions which determine concentrations of ice particles less than about 150 mu m are predicted.

Dissecting the contributions of plasticity and local adaptation to the phenology of a butterfly and its host plants.

PubMed

Phillimore, Albert B; Stålhandske, Sandra; Smithers, Richard J; Bernard, Rodolphe

2012-11-01

Phenology affects the abiotic and biotic conditions that an organism encounters and, consequently, its fitness. For populations of high-latitude species, spring phenology often occurs earlier in warmer years and regions. Here we apply a novel approach, a comparison of slope of phenology on temperature over space versus over time, to identify the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial phenological variation in three interacting species, a butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, and its two host plants, Cardamine pratensis and Alliaria petiolata. All three species overlap in the time window over which mean temperatures best predict variation in phenology, and we find little evidence that a day length requirement causes the sensitive time window to be delayed as latitude increases. The focal species all show pronounced temperature-mediated phenological plasticity of similar magnitude. While we find no evidence for local adaptation in the flowering times of the plants, geographic variation in the phenology of the butterfly is consistent with countergradient local adaptation. The butterfly's phenology appears to be better predicted by temperature than it is by the flowering times of either host plant, and we find no evidence that coevolution has generated geographic variation in adaptive phenological plasticity.

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe

PubMed Central

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. Methods A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Key Results Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. Conclusions The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors. PMID:23585496

Variation in budburst phenology of Douglas-fir related to western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) fitness.

PubMed

Chen, Zhong; Clancy, Karen M; Kolb, Thomas E

2003-04-01

Variation in budburst phenology among individual trees of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca [Beissn.] Franco) may influence their susceptibility to western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) defoliation. We tested the hypothesis that phenological asynchrony between Douglas-fir and the western spruce budworm is a mechanism of resistance using clones derived from parent trees that showed resistance versus susceptibility to C. occidentalis defoliation in the field. Susceptible clones had earlier budburst phenology compared with resistant clones when they were grown in a common greenhouse environment, demonstrating a genetic basis for parallel phenological differences exhibited by the parent trees. We tested the importance of phenological asynchrony as a factor influencing fitness of C. occidentalis using two different greenhouse bioassay experiments. One experiment compared western spruce budworm performance on equivalent phenological stages of susceptible and resistant clones by matching larval feeding to the columnar (fourth) bud development stage of each clone. Larvae reared on resistant clones had greater realized fitness (i.e., number of F1 offspring produced) than those reared on susceptible clones when the influence of variation in budburst phenology was minimized. In the other experiment, western spruce budworm larvae were placed on all trees on the same date when approximately 50% of all terminal buds in the population were in the yellow (second) budburst stage. Larvae reared on susceptible clones had greater realized fitness than those reared on resistant clones when the influence of phenological asynchrony was expressed. Our results suggest that resistant phenotypes of Douglas-fir have negative effects on survival and reproduction of C. occidentalis under the natural conditions that insects and trees experience in the field. Genetic variation among trees in budburst phenology has an important influence on interactions

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-06-01

Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.

Micromechanics of ice friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sammonds, P. R.; Bailey, E.; Lishman, B.; Scourfield, S.

2015-12-01

Frictional mechanics are controlled by the ice micro-structure - surface asperities and flaws - but also the ice fabric and permeability network structure of the contacting blocks. Ice properties are dependent upon the temperature of the bulk ice, on the normal stress and on the sliding velocity and acceleration. This means the shear stress required for sliding is likewise dependent on sliding velocity, acceleration, and temperature. We aim to describe the micro-physics of the contacting surface. We review micro-mechanical models of friction: the elastic and ductile deformation of asperities under normal loads and their shear failure by ductile flow, brittle fracture, or melting and hydrodynamic lubrication. Combinations of these give a total of six rheological models of friction. We present experimental results in ice mechanics and physics from laboratory experiments to understand the mechanical models. We then examine the scaling relations of the slip of ice, to examine how the micro-mechanics of ice friction can be captured simple reduced-parameter models, describing the mechanical state and slip rate of the floes. We aim to capture key elements that they may be incorporated into mid and ocean-basin scale modelling.

Coupled ice-ocean dynamics in the marginal ice zones Upwelling/downwelling and eddy generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, S.

1986-01-01

This study is aimed at modeling mesoscale processes such as upwelling/downwelling and ice edge eddies in the marginal ice zones. A two-dimensional coupled ice-ocean model is used for the study. The ice model is coupled to the reduced gravity ocean model through interfacial stresses. The parameters of the ocean model were chosen so that the dynamics would be nonlinear. The model was tested by studying the dynamics of upwelling. Wings parallel to the ice edge with the ice on the right produce upwelling because the air-ice momentum flux is much greater than air-ocean momentum flux; thus the Ekman transport is greater than the ice than in the open water. The stability of the upwelling and downwelling jets is discussed. The downwelling jet is found to be far more unstable than the upwelling jet because the upwelling jet is stabilized by the divergence. The constant wind field exerted on a varying ice cover will generate vorticity leading to enhanced upwelling/downwelling regions, i.e., wind-forced vortices. Steepening and strengthening of vortices are provided by the nonlinear terms. When forcing is time-varying, the advection terms will also redistribute the vorticity. The wind reversals will separate the vortices from the ice edge, so that the upwelling enhancements are pushed to the open ocean and the downwelling enhancements are pushed underneath the ice.

Investigating methods to estimate melting event parameters over Arctic sea- ice using SSM/I, OKEAN, and RADARSAT Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belchansky, G.; Eremeev, V.; Mordvintsev, I.; Platonov, N.; Douglas, D.

by 75 km) determined prior to spring period in ScanSAR imagery. The averaged 12-h near surface temperatures derived from the IABP wer e used to analyze changes in the SSM/I Tb, OKEAN 0 and OKEAN Tb, RADARSAT SD(0) / MEAN(0), and to estimate respective thresholds associated with the melt onset and freeze-up onset. To highlight the sources of differences among various sensors results were compared to understand how the average the melt onset, melt duration and freeze-up onset estimates varied between different instruments and algorithms. A discrepancy in estimates resulted due to the nature of active and passive microwave measurements, frequency and polarization, number of channels, temperature and emissivity effects, and algorithm types. Higher spatial resolution of OKEAN-01 and RADARSAT-1 SAR was an important characteristic for obtaining better estimates of melting parameters. The SSM/ data provide a spatial resolution with global coverageI suitable for circulation models. Therefore OKEAN-01 and RADARSAT measurements can complement SSM/I data. These studies contribute to the growing body of documentation about the levels of disparity obtained when Arctic seasonal transition parameters are calculated using various types of satellite sensors and algorithms. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was carried out with the support from the International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research (IARC/CIFAR), University of Alaska Fairbanks. We would like to acknowledge the Alaska SAR Facility (Fairbanks), the National Snow and Ice Data Center (University of Colorado), and the Global Hydrology Resource Center, respectively, for providing RADARSAT images, the DMSP SSM/I Daily Polar Gridded Tb and Sea Ice Concentrations, the single-pass SSM/I brightness temperature data. REFERENCES Belchansky, G. I. and Douglas, D. C. (2000). Classification methods for monitoring Arctic sea-ice using OKEAN passive / active two-channel microwave data. J. Remote Sensing of

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-03-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher's C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-01-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher’s C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation. PMID:22174441

Surface phenology and satellite sensor-derived onset of greenness: An initial comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark D.; Reed, Bradley C.

1999-01-01

The objective of this work was to document the utility of phenological data derived from satellite sensors by comparing them with modelled phenology. Surface phenological model outputs (first leaf and first bloom dates) were correlated positively with satellite sensor-derived start of season (SOS) dates for 1991-1995 across the eastern United States. The correlation was highest for forest (r 0.62 for deciduous trees and 0.64 for mixed woodland) and tall grass (r 0.46) and lowest for short grass (r 0.37). The average correlation over all land cover types was 0.61. Average SOS dates were consistently earlier than Spring Index dates across all land cover types. This finding and limited native tree phenology data suggest that the SOS technique detects understorey green-up in the forest rather than overstorey species. The biweekly temporal resolution of the satellite sensor data placed an upper limit on prediction accuracy; thus, year-to-year variations at individual sites were typically small. Nevertheless, the correct biweek SOS could be identified from the surface models 61% of the time, and 1 biweek 96% of the time. Further temporal refinement of the satellite sensor measurements is necessary in order to connect them with surface phenology adequately and to develop links among 'green wave' components in selected biomes.

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Means and Variability of Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Uptake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal Dean; Walker, Gregory K.; Collatz, George J.; Thornton, Peter E.

2013-01-01

Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).

Climate change and decadal shifts in the phenology of larval fishes in the California Current ecosystem

PubMed Central

Asch, Rebecca G.

2015-01-01

Climate change has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such changes are occurring in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling ecosystems, because these regions are subject to natural decadal climate variability, and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. To answer this question, the phenology of 43 species of larval fishes was investigated between 1951 and 2008 off southern California. Ordination of the fish community showed earlier phenological progression in more recent years. Thirty-nine percent of seasonal peaks in larval abundance occurred earlier in the year, whereas 18% were delayed. The species whose phenology became earlier were characterized by an offshore, pelagic distribution, whereas species with delayed phenology were more likely to reside in coastal, demersal habitats. Phenological changes were more closely associated with a trend toward earlier warming of surface waters rather than decadal climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Species with long-term advances and delays in phenology reacted similarly to warming at the interannual time scale as demonstrated by responses to the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The trend toward earlier spawning was correlated with changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and mesozooplankton displacement volume, but not coastal upwelling. SST and upwelling were correlated with delays in fish phenology. For species with 20th century advances in phenology, future projections indicate that current trends will continue unabated. The fate of species with delayed phenology is less clear due to differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models in projected upwelling trends. PMID:26159416

Linking Land Surface Phenology and Growth Limiting Factor Shifts over the Past 30 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garonna, I.; Schenkel, D.; de Jong, R.; Schaepman, M. E.

2015-12-01

The study of global vegetation dynamics contributes to a better understanding of global change drivers and how these affect ecosystems and ecological diversity. Land-surface phenology (LSP) is a key response and feedback of vegetation to the climate system, and hence a parameter that needs to be accurately represented in terrestrial biosphere models [1]. However, the effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions - which are not well understood at global scale. In this study, we analyzed a Phenology Reanalysis dataset [2] to evaluate shifts in three climatic drivers of phenology at global scale and over the last 30 years (1982-2012): incoming radiation, evaporative demand and minimum temperature. As a first step, we compared LAI as modeled from these three factors (LAIre) to remotely sensed observations of LSP (LAI3g, [3]) over the same time period. As a second step, we examined temporal trends in the climatic constraints at Start- and End- of the Growing Season. There was good agreement between phenology metrics as derived form LAI3g and LAIre over the last 30 years - thus providing confidence in the climatic constraints underlying the modeled data. Our analysis reveals inter-annual variation in the relative importance of the three climatic factors in limiting vegetation growth at Start- and End- of the Growing Season over the last 30 years. High northern latitudes, as well as northern Europe and central Asia, appear to have undergone significant changes in dominance between the three controls. We also find that evaporative demand has become increasingly limiting for growth in many parts of the world, in particular in South America and eastern Asia. [1] Richardson, A.D. et al. Global Change Biology 18, 566-584 (2012). [2] Stöckli, R. et al. J. Geophys. Res 116, G03020 (2011). [3] Zhu, Z. et al. Remote Sensing 5, 927-948 (2013).

Using Linear and Non-Linear Temporal Adjustments to Align Multiple Phenology Curves, Making Vegetation Status and Health Directly Comparable

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

National-scale polar analysis of MODIS NDVI allows quantification of degree of seasonality expressed by local vegetation, and also selects the most optimum start/end of a local "phenological year" that is empirically customized for the vegetation that is growing at each location. Interannual differences in timing of phenology make direct comparisons of vegetation health and performance between years difficult, whether at the same or different locations. By "sliding" the two phenologies in time using a Procrustean linear time shift, any particular phenological event or "completion milestone" can be synchronized, allowing direct comparison of differences in timing of other remaining milestones. Going beyond a simple linear translation, time can be "rubber-sheeted," compressed or dilated. Considering one phenology curve to be a reference, the second phenology can be "rubber-sheeted" to fit that baseline as well as possible by stretching or shrinking time to match multiple control points, which can be any recognizable phenological events. Similar to "rubber sheeting" to georectify a map inside a GIS, rubber sheeting a phenology curve also yields a warping signature that shows at every time and every location how many days the adjusted phenology is ahead or behind the phenological development of the reference vegetation. Using such temporal methods to "adjust" phenologies may help to quantify vegetation impacts from frost, drought, wildfire, insects and diseases by permitting the most commensurate quantitative comparisons with unaffected vegetation.

Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

Satellite time-series data for vegetation phenology detection and environmental assessment in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suepa, Tanita

The relationship between temporal and spatial data is considered the major advantage of remote sensing in research related to biophysical characteristics. With temporally formatted remote sensing products, it is possible to monitor environmental changes as well as global climate change through time and space by analyzing vegetation phenology. Although a number of different methods have been developed to determine the seasonal cycle using time series of vegetation indices, these methods were not designed to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in Southeast Asia (SEA). SEA is adversely affected by impacts of climate change, which causes considerable environmental problems, and the increase in agricultural land conversion and intensification also adds to those problems. Consequently, exploring and monitoring phenological change and environmental impacts are necessary for a better understanding of the ecosystem dynamics and environmental change in this region. This research aimed to investigate inter-annual variability of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality, analyze the possible drivers of phenological changes from both climatic and anthropogenic factors, assess the environmental impacts in agricultural areas, and develop an enhanced visualization method for phenological information dissemination. In this research, spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were analyzed by using MODIS-EVI time series data over the period of 2001-2010. Rainfall seasonality was derived from TRMM daily rainfall rate. Additionally, this research assessed environmental impacts of GHG emissions by using the environmental model (DNDC) to quantify emissions from rice fields in Thailand. Furthermore, a web mapping application was developed to present the output of phenological and environmental analysis with interactive functions. The results revealed that satellite time-series data provided a great opportunity to study regional vegetation variability