Community-level phenological response to climate change

PubMed Central

Ovaskainen, Otso; Skorokhodova, Svetlana; Yakovleva, Marina; Sukhov, Alexander; Kutenkov, Anatoliy; Kutenkova, Nadezhda; Shcherbakov, Anatoliy; Meyke, Evegeniy; Delgado, Maria del Mar

2013-01-01

Climate change may disrupt interspecies phenological synchrony, with adverse consequences to ecosystem functioning. We present here a 40-y-long time series on 10,425 dates that were systematically collected in a single Russian locality for 97 plant, 78 bird, 10 herptile, 19 insect, and 9 fungal phenological events, as well as for 77 climatic events related to temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and frost. We show that species are shifting their phenologies at dissimilar rates, partly because they respond to different climatic factors, which in turn are shifting at dissimilar rates. Plants have advanced their spring phenology even faster than average temperature has increased, whereas migratory birds have shown more divergent responses and shifted, on average, less than plants. Phenological events of birds and insects were mainly triggered by climate cues (variation in temperature and snow and ice cover) occurring over the course of short periods, whereas many plants, herptiles, and fungi were affected by long-term climatic averages. Year-to-year variation in plants, herptiles, and insects showed a high degree of synchrony, whereas the phenological timing of fungi did not correlate with any other taxonomic group. In many cases, species that are synchronous in their year-to-year dynamics have also shifted in congruence, suggesting that climate change may have disrupted phenological synchrony less than has been previously assumed. Our results illustrate how a multidimensional change in the physical environment has translated into a community-level change in phenology. PMID:23901098

Phenology Analysis of Forest Vegetation to Environmental Variables during - and Post-Monsoon Seasons in Western Himalayan Region of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khare, S.; Latifi, H.; Ghosh, K.

2016-06-01

To assess the phenological changes in Moist Deciduous Forest (MDF) of western Himalayan region of India, we carried out NDVI time series analysis from 2013 to 2015 using Landsat 8 OLI data. We used the vegetation index differencing method to calculate the change in NDVI (NDVIchange) during pre and post monsoon seasons and these changes were used to assess the phenological behaviour of MDF by taking the effect of a set of environmental variables into account. To understand the effect of environmental variables on change in phenology, we designed a linear regression analysis with sample-based NDVIchange values as the response variable and elevation aspect, and Land Surface Temperature (LST) as explanatory variables. The Landsat-8 derived phenology transition stages were validated by calculating the phenology variation from Nov 2008 to April 2009 using Landsat-7 which has the same spatial resolution as Landsat-8. The Landsat-7 derived NDVI trajectories were plotted in accordance with MODIS derived phenology stages (from Nov 2008 to April 2009) of MDF. Results indicate that the Landsat -8 derived NDVI trajectories describing the phenology variation of MDF during spring, monsoon autumn and winter seasons agreed closely with Landsat-7 and MODIS derived phenology transition from Nov 2008 to April 2009. Furthermore, statistical analysis showed statistically significant correlations (p < 0.05) amongst the environmental variables and the NDVIchange between full greenness and maximum frequency stage of Onset of Greenness (OG) activity.. The major change in NDVI was observed in medium (600 to 650 m) and maximum (650 to 750 m) elevation areas. The change in LST showed also to be highly influential. The results of this study can be used for large scale monitoring of difficult-to-reach mountainous forests, with additional implications in biodiversity assessment. By means of a sufficient amount of available cloud-free imagery, detailed phenological trends across mountainous

Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Peairs, Frank B

2017-02-01

Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology. Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate. Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Methane emission from high-latitude (>50N) lakes: Annual cycle of climatological emissions using satellite-derived lake-ice phenology and freeze-thaw dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.; Romanski, J.; Du, J.; Watts, J. D.

2017-12-01

Lakes are increasingly recognized as potentially important contributors to global methane emissions despite occupying only a few percent of Earth's ice-free land surface. More than 40% of the global lake area lies in regions of amplified warming north of 50˚N. As with wetlands, lake emissions are sensitive to interannual fluctuations in, e.g., temperature and duration of thaw season. Several estimates of CH4emission from high-latitude lakes have been published but none relies on geospatial lake distributions and satellite-based duration and timing of thaw seasons. We report on a climatology of weekly, spatially-explicit methane emissions from high-latitude lakes. Lake break-up and freeze-up dates for lakes >50km^2 were determined from a lake-ice phenology data set derived from brightness temperature (Tb) observations of space-borne Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E/2) sensors. The lake-ice conditions for smaller lakes were estimated using an Earth System Data Record for Land Surface Freeze-Thaw State derived from Tb observations of Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), and SSM/I Sounder (SSMIS). Climatologies encompass 2002-2015 for lake ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for the land surface freeze-thaw state. Climatologies encompass 2003-2014 for ice phenology and 1979 to 2010 for freeze-thaw dynamics. Length and timing of typical methane-emission periods, derived from the satellite data, were integrated with daily diffusive and ebulliative methane fluxes for lake types following the work of Wik et al. (Nature, 2016) to estimate a full annual cycle of emissions from lakes >50˚N. We explored several approaches to estimate the large bursts of emissions observed over short periods during lake-ice breakup immediately prior to full lake thaw since several studies suggest that a substantial fraction of total annual emissions may occur at this time. While highly uncertain, we plan to investigate whether

Land Use and Environmental Variability Impacts on the Phenology of Arid Agro-Ecosystems.

PubMed

Romo-Leon, Jose Raul; van Leeuwen, Willem J D; Castellanos-Villegas, Alejandro

2016-02-01

The overexploitation of water resources in arid environments often results in abandonment of large extensions of agricultural lands, which may (1) modify phenological trends, and (2) alter the sensitivity of specific phenophases to environmental triggers. In Mexico, current governmental policies subsidize restoration efforts, to address ecological degradation caused by abandonments; however, there is a need for new approaches to assess their effectiveness. Addressing this, we explore a method to monitor and assess (1) land surface phenology trends in arid agro-ecosystems, and (2) the effect of climatic factors and restoration treatments on the phenology of abandoned agricultural fields. We used 16-day normalized difference vegetation index composites from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer from 2000 to 2009 to derive seasonal phenometrics. We then derived phenoclimatic variables and land cover thematic maps, to serve as a set of independent factors that influence vegetation phenology. We conducted a multivariate analysis of variance to analyze phenological trends among land cover types, and developed multiple linear regression models to assess influential climatic factors driving phenology per land cover analyzed. Our results suggest that the start and length of the growing season had different responses to environmental factors depending on land cover type. Our analysis also suggests possible establishment of arid adapted species (from surrounding ecosystems) in abandoned fields with longer times since abandonment. Using this approach, we were able increase our understanding on how climatic factors influence phenology on degraded arid agro-ecosystems, and how this systems evolve after disturbance.

Detrending phenological time series improves climate-phenology analyses and reveals evidence of plasticity.

PubMed

Iler, Amy M; Inouye, David W; Schmidt, Niels M; Høye, Toke T

2017-03-01

Time series have played a critical role in documenting how phenology responds to climate change. However, regressing phenological responses against climatic predictors involves the risk of finding potentially spurious climate-phenology relationships simply because both variables also change across years. Detrending by year is a way to address this issue. Additionally, detrending isolates interannual variation in phenology and climate, so that detrended climate-phenology relationships can represent statistical evidence of phenotypic plasticity. Using two flowering phenology time series from Colorado, USA and Greenland, we detrend flowering date and two climate predictors known to be important in these ecosystems: temperature and snowmelt date. In Colorado, all climate-phenology relationships persist after detrending. In Greenland, 75% of the temperature-phenology relationships disappear after detrending (three of four species). At both sites, the relationships that persist after detrending suggest that plasticity is a major component of sensitivity of flowering phenology to climate. Finally, simulations that created different strengths of correlations among year, climate, and phenology provide broader support for our two empirical case studies. This study highlights the utility of detrending to determine whether phenology is related to a climate variable in observational data sets. Applying this as a best practice will increase our understanding of phenological responses to climatic variation and change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hydrology, phenology and the USA National Phenology Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kish, George R.

2010-01-01

Phenology is the study of seasonally-recurring biological events (such as leaf-out, fruit production, and animal reproduction and migration) and how these events are influenced by environmental change. Phenological changes are some of the most sensitive biological indicators of climate change, and also affect nearly all aspects of ecosystem function. Spatially extensive patterns of phenological observations have been closely linked with climate variability. Phenology and hydrology are closely linked and affect one another across a variety of scales, from leaf intercellular spaces to the troposphere, and over periods of seconds to centuries. Ecosystem life cycles and diversity are also influenced by hydrologic processes such as floods and droughts. Therefore, understanding the relationships between hydrology and phenology is increasingly important in understanding how climate change affects biological and physical systems.

Urban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Schatz, Jason; Singh, Aditya; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Townsend, Philip A.; Loheide, Steven P., II

2016-05-01

Despite documented intra-urban heterogeneity in the urban heat island (UHI) effect, little is known about spatial or temporal variability in plant response to the UHI. Using an automated temperature sensor network in conjunction with Landsat-derived remotely sensed estimates of start/end of the growing season, we investigate the impacts of the UHI on plant phenology in the city of Madison WI (USA) for the 2012-2014 growing seasons. Median urban growing season length (GSL) estimated from temperature sensors is ˜5 d longer than surrounding rural areas, and UHI impacts on GSL are relatively consistent from year-to-year. Parks within urban areas experience a subdued expression of GSL lengthening resulting from interactions between the UHI and a park cool island effect. Across all growing seasons, impervious cover in the area surrounding each temperature sensor explains >50% of observed variability in phenology. Comparisons between long-term estimates of annual mean phenological timing, derived from remote sensing, and temperature-based estimates of individual growing seasons show no relationship at the individual sensor level. The magnitude of disagreement between temperature-based and remotely sensed phenology is a function of impervious and grass cover surrounding the sensor, suggesting that realized GSL is controlled by both local land cover and micrometeorological conditions.

Impacts of winter icing events on the growth, phenology and physiology of sub-arctic dwarf shrubs.

PubMed

Preece, Catherine; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K

2012-12-01

The Arctic is experiencing the greatest climate change in winter, including increases in freeze-thaw cycles that can result in ice encasement of vegetation. Ice encasement can expose plants to hypoxia and greater temperature extremes, but currently the impacts of icing on plants in the field remain little understood. With this in mind, a unique field manipulation experiment was established in heathland in northern Sweden with ice encasement simulated in early March 2008, 2009 and 2010 until natural thaw each spring. In the following summers we assessed the impacts on flowering, bud phenology, shoot growth and mortality and leaf damage (measured by chlorophyll fluorescence and electrolyte leakage) of the three dominant dwarf shrub species Empetrum nigrum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea (both evergreen) and Vaccinium myrtillus (deciduous). Two consecutive winters of icing decreased V. vitis-idaea flowering by 57%, while flowering of V. myrtillus and E. nigrum remained unaffected. Vaccinium myrtillus showed earlier budburst but shoot growth for all species was unchanged. Shoot mortality of V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea increased after the first year (by 70 and 165%, respectively) and again for V. myrtillus following the third year (by 67%), while E. nigrum shoot mortality remained unaffected, as were chlorophyll fluorescence and electrolyte leakage in all species. Overall, the sub-arctic heathland was relatively tolerant to icing, but the considerable shoot mortality of V. myrtillus contrasting with the general tolerance of E. nigrum suggests plant community structure in the longer term could change if winters continue to see a greater frequency of icing events. Copyright © Physiologia Plantarum 2012.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate.

PubMed

Ramos, M C; Jones, G V; Yuste, J

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27(th), bloom June 17(th), and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Spatial and temporal variability of cv. Tempranillo phenology and grape quality within the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain) and relationships with climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, M. C.; Jones, G. V.; Yuste, J.

2015-12-01

The aim of this work was to analyze spatial phenology and grape quality variability related to the climatic characteristics within the Ribera del Duero Designation of Origin (DO). Twenty plots planted with cv. Tempranillo and distributed within the DO were analyzed for phenology from 2004 to 2013. Grape quality parameters at ripening (berry weight, sugar content, acidity and pH, and anthocyanins) were analyzed in 26 plots for the period 2003-2013. The relationships between phenology and grape parameters with different climatic variables were confirmed with a multivariate analysis. On average, bud break was April 27th, bloom June 17th, and veraison August 12th. However, phenology during the time period showed high variability, with differences between years of up to 21 days for a phenology stage. The earliest dates were observed in dry years (2005, 2006, and to a lesser degree in 2009) while the later phenology dates occurred in the wettest year of the period (2008). High correlations were found between veraison date and temperature variables as well as with precipitation-evapotranspiration recorded during the bloom-veraison period. These effects tended to be higher in the central part of the DO. Grape quality parameters also showed high variability among the dry and the wet years, and the influence of extreme temperatures on color development as well as the effect of available water on acidity were observed.

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrieling, Anton; deBeurs, K. M.; Brown, Molly E.

2011-01-01

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

2012-12-01

Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these

Remote sensing of land surface phenology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, G.A.; Brown, Jesslyn F.

2014-01-01

Remote sensing of land-surface phenology is an important method for studying the patterns of plant and animal growth cycles. Phenological events are sensitive to climate variation; therefore phenology data provide important baseline information documenting trends in ecology and detecting the impacts of climate change on multiple scales. The USGS Remote sensing of land surface phenology program produces annually, nine phenology indicator variables at 250 m and 1,000 m resolution for the contiguous U.S. The 12 year archive is available at http://phenology.cr.usgs.gov/index.php.

Integration of MODIS-derived metrics to assess interannual variability in snowpack, lake ice, and NDVI in southwest Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Bradley C.; Budde, Michael E.; Spencer, Page; Miller, Amy E.

2009-01-01

Impacts of global climate change are expected to result in greater variation in the seasonality of snowpack, lake ice, and vegetation dynamics in southwest Alaska. All have wide-reaching physical and biological ecosystem effects in the region. We used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) calibrated radiance, snow cover extent, and vegetation index products for interpreting interannual variation in the duration and extent of snowpack, lake ice, and vegetation dynamics for southwest Alaska. The approach integrates multiple seasonal metrics across large ecological regions. Throughout the observation period (2001-2007), snow cover duration was stable within ecoregions, with variable start and end dates. The start of the lake ice season lagged the snow season by 2 to 3??months. Within a given lake, freeze-up dates varied in timing and duration, while break-up dates were more consistent. Vegetation phenology varied less than snow and ice metrics, with start-of-season dates comparatively consistent across years. The start of growing season and snow melt were related to one another as they are both temperature dependent. Higher than average temperatures during the El Ni??o winter of 2002-2003 were expressed in anomalous ice and snow season patterns. We are developing a consistent, MODIS-based dataset that will be used to monitor temporal trends of each of these seasonal metrics and to map areas of change for the study area.

An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

2013-12-01

As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

Lake Generated Microseisms at Yellowstone Lake as a Record of Ice Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd Mokhdhari, A. A.; Koper, K. D.; Burlacu, R.

2017-12-01

It has recently been shown that wave action in lakes produces microseisms, which generate noise peaks in the period range of 0.8-1.2 s as recorded by nearby seismic stations. Such noise peaks have been observed at seven seismic stations (H17A, LKWY, B208, B944, YTP, YLA, and YLT) located within 2 km of the Yellowstone Lake shoreline. Initial work using 2016 data shows that the variations in the microseism signals at Yellowstone Lake correspond with the freezing and thawing of lake ice: the seismic noise occurs more frequently in the spring, summer, and fall, and less commonly in the winter. If this can be confirmed, then lake-generated microseisms could provide a consistent measure of the freezing and melting dates of high-latitude lakes in remote areas. The seismic data would then be useful in assessing the effects of climate change on the ice phenology of those lakes. In this work, we analyze continuous seismic data recorded by the seven seismic stations around Yellowstone Lake for the years of 1995 to 2016. We generate probability distribution functions of power spectral density for each station to observe the broad elevation of energy near a period of 1 s. The time dependence of this 1-s seismic noise energy is analyzed by extracting the power spectral density at 1 s from every processed hour. The seismic observations are compared to direct measurements of the dates of ice-out and freeze-up as reported by rangers at Yellowstone National Park. We examine how accurate the seismic data are in recording the freezing and melting of Yellowstone Lake, and how the accuracy changes as a function of the number of stations used. We also examine how sensitive the results are to the particular range of periods that are analyzed.

Phenology at the crossroads?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzel, Annette

2014-05-01

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events such as plant growth or animal migration. Currently nearly 500 papers are published annually that include 'phenolog*' in their title; many are related to anthropogenic change. Since seasonal events are triggered predominantly by climate, phenology has emerged as a key asset in identifying fingerprints of climate change in natural systems, especially since recent warming has been mirrored by significantly advancing spring events. Phenological changes have been reported across continents, habitats and taxa, predominantly as mean temporal changes ('trends') or as relationships to temperature and other drivers ('responses'), and have been summarised in various meta-analyses. However, a considerable variability in observed trends and responses is reported along with mixed messages of the footprint of climate change in nature. Phenology has made considerable advances but is a crossroads of understanding this variability. At the same time a change of emphasis in explanation, prediction and adaptation is emerging, which needs a full acknowledgement of this variability; likely yielding to more plasticity and resilience. In this review, I summarize current knowledge and recent insights into the role of • different observation methods, their accuracy and their target phenophases • observed events, species, traits, ontogenetic effects • species-specific safeguarding strategies, e.g. chilling, photoperiod • additional drivers other than climate, e.g. nutrients, GHG, biotic effects, anthropogenic / agricultural management • seasonal as well as spatio-temporal variation, effects of regional climate changes and analogous climates. This review clearly demonstrated that, comparable to weather and climate ensembles, only a full consideration of variation in responses allows a complete understanding of ecological, cultural and socioeconomic consequences of these phenological changes.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

PubMed Central

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-01-01

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Comiso, Josefino C.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Gloersen, Per; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the

The Plant Phenology Ontology: A New Informatics Resource for Large-Scale Integration of Plant Phenology Data.

PubMed

Stucky, Brian J; Guralnick, Rob; Deck, John; Denny, Ellen G; Bolmgren, Kjell; Walls, Ramona

2018-01-01

Plant phenology - the timing of plant life-cycle events, such as flowering or leafing out - plays a fundamental role in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, including human agricultural systems. Because plant phenology is often linked with climatic variables, there is widespread interest in developing a deeper understanding of global plant phenology patterns and trends. Although phenology data from around the world are currently available, truly global analyses of plant phenology have so far been difficult because the organizations producing large-scale phenology data are using non-standardized terminologies and metrics during data collection and data processing. To address this problem, we have developed the Plant Phenology Ontology (PPO). The PPO provides the standardized vocabulary and semantic framework that is needed for large-scale integration of heterogeneous plant phenology data. Here, we describe the PPO, and we also report preliminary results of using the PPO and a new data processing pipeline to build a large dataset of phenology information from North America and Europe.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Phase I of a National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betancourt, J. L.; Henebry, G. M.

2009-12-01

Phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal timescales. We propose a scoping study to identify, formulate, and refine approaches to the first National Phenological Assessment (NPA) for the U.S. The NPA should be viewed as a data product of the USA-National Phenology Network that will help guide future phenological monitoring and research at the national level. We envision three main objectives for the first NPA: 1) Establish a suite of indicators of phenological change (IPCs) at regional to continental scales, following the Heinz Center model for such national assessments; 2) Using sufficiently long and broad-scale time series of IPCs and legacy phenological data, assess phenological responses to what many scientists are calling the early stages of anthropogenic climate change, specifically the abrupt advance in spring onset in the late 1970’s/early 1980’s 3) Project large-scale phenological changes into 21st Century using GCM and RCM model realizations. Toward this end we see the following tasks as critical preliminary work to plan the first NPA: a) Identify, evaluate, and refine IPCs based on indices developed from standard weather observations, streamflow and other hydrological observations (e.g., center of mass, lake freeze/thaw, etc.), plant and animal phenology observations from legacy datasets, remote sensing datastreams, flux tower observations, and GCM and RCM model realizations; b) Evaluate covariability between IPCs, legacy phenological data, and large-scale modes of climate variability to help detection and attribution of supposed secular trends and development of short and long-lead forecasts for phenological variations; c) identify, evaluate, and refine optimal methods for quantifying what constitutes significant statistical and ecological change in

Spatial and temporal variability of landscape phenology based on EVI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunkár, Márta; Szenyán, Ildikó

2013-04-01

Increasing number of climate change studies in the 1990s evolved the interest in phenological research and thus the demand for phenological observations has increased substantially. Mainly, rising air temperatures in recent decades and the clear phenological response of plants and animals to this increase have caused the growing interest. Monitoring phenological phases is carried out in many European countries. Each country has its own database, in some cases still on paper, mostly on databank-systems, going back in many cases to the 1950s. Recently remote sensing phenology, the use of satellites to track phenological events can complement or in some cases substitute ground observation networks. Satellites provide a unique perspective of the planet and allow for regular, even daily, monitoring of the entire global land surface. Because the most frequently used satellite sensors for monitoring phenological events have relatively large "footprints" on the land surface, they gather data about entire ecosystems or regions rather than individual species. Remote sensing phenology can reveal broad-scale phenological trends that would be difficult, if not impossible, to detect from the ground, and because data collection by satellite sensors can be standardized, the data are reliably objective. Obviously remote sensing data are not the traditional phenological phases but they are reflectance (ρ) in different spectral channels. The status of the vegetation is in close connection with its reflectance especially in the near infrared and red spectrums. In our study we used "Enhanced Vegetation Index" (EVI) to characterize the status of vegetation on a sample area with the size of 5 km x 5 km inhomogeneous terrain NW corner: 46o 19' 33,6"N, 17o 42' 38,52"E , NE corner: 46o 19' 33,6"N; 17o 46' 15,96"E; SW corner: 46o 17' 3,84"N; 17o 41' 50,28"E, SE corner: 46o 17' 3,84"N; 17o 45'27"E. EVI data are available from MODIS placed at Terra and Aqua satellites. High resolution (250m x

Spatiotemporal Variability and in Snow Phenology over Eurasian Continent druing 1966-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, X.; Zhang, T.; Wang, K.; Zheng, L.; Wang, H.

2016-12-01

Snow cover is a key part of the cryosphere, which is a critical component of the global climate system. Snow cover phenology critically effects on the surface energy budget, the surface albedo and hydrological processes. In this study, the climatology and spatiotemporal variability of snow cover phenology were investigated using the long-term (1966-2012) ground-based measurements of daily snow depth from 1103 stations across the Eurasian Continent. The results showed that the distributions of the first date, last date, snow cover duration and number of snow cover days generally represented the latitudinal zonality over the Eurasian Continent, and there were significant elevation gradient patterns in the Tibetan Plateau. The first date of snow cover delayed by about 1.2 day decade-1, the last date of snow cover advanced with the rate of -1.2 day decade-1, snow cover duration and number of snow cover days shortened by about 2.7and 0.6 day decade-1, respectively, from 1966 through 2012. Compared with precipitation, the correlation between snow cover phenology and air temperature was more significant. The changes in snow cover duration were mainly controlled by the changes of air temperature in autumn and spring. The shortened number of snow cover days was affected by rising temperature during the cold season except for the air temperature in autumn and spring.

Mapping and Assessing Variability in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone, the Pack Ice and Coastal Polynyas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Jenouvrier, Stephanie

2016-04-01

Sea ice variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and polynyas plays an important role for phytoplankton productivity and krill abundance. Therefore mapping their spatial extent, seasonal and interannual variability is essential for understanding how current and future changes in these biological active regions may impact the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Knowledge of the distribution of different ice types to the total Antarctic sea ice cover may also help to shed light on the factors contributing towards recent expansion of the Antarctic ice cover in some regions and contraction in others. The long-term passive microwave satellite data record provides the longest and most consistent data record for assessing different ice types. However, estimates of the amount of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and polynyas depends strongly on what sea ice algorithm is used. This study uses two popular passive microwave sea ice algorithms, the NASA Team and Bootstrap to evaluate the distribution and variability in the MIZ, the consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas. Results reveal the NASA Team algorithm has on average twice the MIZ and half the consolidated pack ice area as the Bootstrap algorithm. Polynya area is also larger in the NASA Team algorithm, and the timing of maximum polynya area may differ by as much as 5 months between algorithms. These differences lead to different relationships between sea ice characteristics and biological processes, as illustrated here with the breeding success of an Antarctic seabird.

Voluntary Field Data Collection for Landscape Phenology and Surface Water Essential Climate Variable Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. W.; Hudson-Dunn, A.; Aquino, K.; Pasa, M.; Paez, F.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing techniques to monitor vegetation and surface water condition for improved resource management. Educational materials and data forms that allow volunteer Citizen Scientists to collect information on vegetation and surface water extent to enhance satellite and web camera data analyses (http://egsc.usgs.gov/shenandoah.html) have been developed, tested, and refined. Collection is focused on supplementing landscape phenology and surface water extent (SWE) essential climate variable (ECV) research. Low cost instrumentation, subject education, and measurement calibration techniques all have utility for multiple remote sensing and biophysical studies. Trials have been conducted with subjects ranging from elementary school-aged summer camp children to science major undergraduate and graduate students. Experiments were replicated in several project study areas in Virginia that are also phenology and SWE-ECV research sites. Analysis of volunteer responses and their narrative feedback have improved the ability to request and assess data from volunteers. Children ages 12 and over were able to provide reliable supplemental information for phenology and aquatic research. Finally, trial observation and subject feedback both confirmed that participation furthered volunteer interest in science.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

PubMed

Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E

2014-10-22

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

SPRUCE Manual Phenology Observations and Photographs Beginning in 2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heiderman, Ryan R; Nettles, W. Robert; Ontl, Todd A

Periodic observations of the phenology of vegetation bud swell, leaf out, leaf off, flowering, fruiting and the nature of snow cover and ice presence have been assessed by SPRUCE project personnel since 2010. These observations are supplemented by the collection of images from periodic photographs. Annual summaries of vegetation phenology and snow and ice presence are also provided. Early observations were conducted throughout the S1-Bog with an emphasis on the southern end of the bog. Observations collected since the spring of 2013 have focused on the southern end of the S1-Bog and the plots 2 through 21 of the SPRUCEmore » experiment. Beginning in 2015 those observations included assessments within the enclosure space surrounding plots 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 19 and 20. Newly collected data will be appended annually.« less

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Viewed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1998-01-01

Over the past 20 years, satellite passive-microwave radiometry has provided a marvelous means for obtaining information about the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and particularly about sea ice concentrations (% areal coverages) and from them ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season. This ability derives from the sharp contrast between the microwave emissions of sea ice versus liquid water and allows routine monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover, which typically varies in extent from a minimum of about 8,000,000 sq km in September to a maximum of about 15,000,000 sq km in March, the latter value being over 1.5 times the area of either the United States or Canada. The vast Arctic ice cover has many impacts, including hindering heat, mass, and y momentum exchanges between the oceans and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface, affecting freshwater transports and ocean circulation, and serving as a vital surface for many species of polar animals. These direct impacts also lead to indirect impacts, including effects on local and perhaps global atmospheric temperatures, effects that are being examined in general circulation modeling studies, where preliminary results indicate that changes on the order of a few percent sea ice concentration can lead to temperature changes of 1 K or greater even in local areas outside of the sea ice region. Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities in both the ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 km(2), while individual regions showed much greater percentage variations, e.g., with the Greenland Sea experiencing a range of 740,000 - 1,1110,000 km(2) in its yearly maximum ice coverage. Although variations from year to

Nature's Notebook Provides Phenology Observations for NASA Juniper Phenology and Pollen Transport Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luval, J. C.; Crimmins, T. M.; Sprigg, W. A.; Levetin, E.; Huete, A.; Nickovic, S.; Prasad, A.; Vukovic, A.; VandeWater, P. K.; Budge, A. M.;

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

Oxygen dynamics in a boreal lake responds to long-term changes in climate, ice phenology, and DOC inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couture, Raoul-Marie; de Wit, Heleen A.; Tominaga, Koji; Kiuru, Petri; Markelov, Igor

2015-11-01

Boreal lakes are impacted by climate change, reduced acid deposition, and changing loads of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from catchments. We explored, using the process-based lake model MyLake, how changes in these pressures modulate ice phenology and the dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) of a small boreal humic lake. The model was parametrized against year-round time series of water temperature and DO from a lake buoy. Observed trends in air temperature (+0.045°C yr-1) and DOC concentration (0.11 mg C L-1 yr-1, +1% annually) over the past 40 years were used as model forcings. A backcast of ice freezing and breakup dates revealed that ice breakup occurred on average 8 days earlier in 2014 than in 1974. The earlier ice breakup enhanced water column ventilation resulting in higher DO in the spring. Warmer water in late summer led to longer anoxic periods, as microbial DOC turnover increased. A long-term increase in DOC concentrations caused a decline in lake DO, leading to 15% more hypoxic days (<3 mg L-1) and 10% more anoxic days (<15 µg L-1) in 2014 than in 1974. We conclude that climate warming and increasing DOC loads are antagonistic with respect to their effect on DO availability. The model suggests that DOC is a stronger driver of DO consumption than temperature. The browning of lakes may thus cause reductions in the oxythermal habitat of fish and aquatic biota in boreal lakes.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

PubMed

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

A Variable-Instar Climate-Driven Individual Beetle-Based Phenology Model for the Invasive Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Trotter, R Talbot; Keena, Melody A

2016-12-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2011-01-01

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players.

PubMed

Janot, Jeffrey M; Beltz, Nicholas M; Dalleck, Lance D

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key pointsThe 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed.In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity.Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches can

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players

PubMed Central

Janot, Jeffrey M.; Beltz, Nicholas M.; Dalleck, Lance D.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key points The 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed. In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity. Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches

Interannual variability of monthly Southern Ocean sea ice distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

The interannual variability of the Southern-Ocean sea-ice distributions was mapped and analyzed using data from Nimbus-5 ESMR and Nimbus-7 SMMR, collected from 1973 to 1987. The set of 12 monthly maps obtained reveals many details on spatial variability that are unobtainable from time series of ice extents. These maps can be used as baseline maps for comparisons against future Southern Ocean sea ice distributions. The maps are supplemented by more detailed maps of the frequency of ice coverage, presented in this paper for one month within each of the four seasons, and by the breakdown of these results to the periods covered individually by each of the two passive-microwave imagers.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few

Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However

Phenology of seed and leaves rain in response to periodic climatic variability in a seasonal wet tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matteo, D.; Wright, S. J.; Davies, S. J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Wolfe, B.; Detto, M.

2016-12-01

Phenology, by controlling the rhythms of plants, plays a fundamental role in regulating access to resources, ecosystem processes, competition among species, interactions with consumers and feedbacks to the climate. In high biodiverse tropical forests, where phenology of flowering and leafing are complex, an adequate representation of phenology must take into account a given set of climatic, edaphic and biotic factors. Climatic factors are particularly important because plants may use them as cues for timing different phenological phases and be influenced by their intensity. Climatic variability can be periodic, if events occur with regular frequency, or aperiodic. One prominent periodic large-scale pattern that causes unusual weather is ENSO event. In general, Central America tends to be dry and warm during a mature phase of an ENSO event, which usually peaks between October and January with a frequency of 2-3 events per decade. Because in many tropical areas the effect of ENSO is highly prominent, it is plausible that plants have adapted their growth and reproduction mechanisms to synchronize ENSO phases, in a similar way that plants do during the seasonal cycle. We used a long dataset (30+ years) of fruits and leaves rains of tropical trees and lianas to determine ecosystem response and species specific response of these phenological events to local climate variability corresponding to the modes of ENSO. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that phenological responses to ENSO are similar to response to seasonal cycles, i.e., higher litterfall before a warm-dry phase and higher fruiting after such phase, with strong correlation between seeds and leaves. At sub-community level, we evaluated whether evergreen and deciduous, biotic and abiotic dispersers and free and climbing life forms, have the same response to ENSO in terms of leaves and seeds rain. At species level we tested the hypothesis that species with low photosynthetic capacity leaves are more responsive

Arctic Sea Ice: Trends, Stability and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Woosok

A stochastic Arctic sea-ice model is derived and analyzed in detail to interpret the recent decay and associated variability of Arctic sea-ice under changes in greenhouse gas forcing widely referred to as global warming. The approach begins from a deterministic model of the heat flux balance through the air/sea/ice system, which uses observed monthly-averaged heat fluxes to drive a time evolution of sea-ice thickness. This model reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of the ice cover and it is to this that stochastic noise---representing high frequency variability---is introduced. The model takes the form of a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation. Following an introductory chapter, the two that follow focus principally on the properties of the deterministic model in order to identify the main properties governing the stability of the ice cover. In chapter 2 the underlying time-dependent solutions to the deterministic model are analyzed for their stability. It is found that the response time-scale of the system to perturbations is dominated by the destabilizing sea-ice albedo feedback, which is operative in the summer, and the stabilizing long wave radiative cooling of the ice surface, which is operative in the winter. This basic competition is found throughout the thesis to define the governing dynamics of the system. In particular, as greenhouse gas forcing increases, the sea-ice albedo feedback becomes more effective at destabilizing the system. Thus, any projections of the future state of Arctic sea-ice will depend sensitively on the treatment of the ice-albedo feedback. This in turn implies that the treatment a fractional ice cover as the ice areal extent changes rapidly, must be handled with the utmost care. In chapter 3, the idea of a two-season model, with just winter and summer, is revisited. By breaking the seasonal cycle up in this manner one can simplify the interpretation of the basic dynamics. Whereas in the fully

Synthesizing plant phenological indicators from multispecies datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Peñuelas, Josep; Filella, Iolanda; Gehrig, Regula; Scherrer, Simon C.; Röthlisberger, Christian

2014-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants from phenological observations are traditionally analysed at the species level. Trends and correlations with main environmental driving variables show a coherent picture across the globe. The question arises whether there is an integrated phenological signal across species that describes common interannual variability. Is there a way to express synthetic phenological indicators from multispecies datasets that serve decision makers as usefull tools? Can these indicators be derived in such a robust way that systematic updates yield necessary information for adaptation measures? We address these questions by analysing multi-species phenological data sets with leaf-unfolding and flowering observations from 30 sites across Europe between 40° and 63°N including data from PEP725, the Swiss Plant Phenological Observation Network and one legacy data set. Starting in 1951 the data sets were synthesized by multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis). The representativeness of the site specific indicator was tested against subsets including only leaf-unfolding or flowering phases, and by a comparison with a 50% random sample of the available phenophases for 500 time steps. Results show that a synthetic indicators explains up to 79% of the variance at each site - usually 40-50% or more. Robust linear trends over the common period 1971-2000 indicate an overall change of the indicator of -0.32 days/year with lower uncertainty than previous studies. Advances were more pronounced in southern and northern Europe. The indicator-based analysis provides a promising tool for synthesizing site-based plant phenological records and is a companion to, and validating data for, an increasing number of phenological measurements derived from phenological models and satellite sensors.

Detecting high spatial variability of ice shelf basal mass balance, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Sophie; Drews, Reinhard; Helm, Veit; Sun, Sainan; Pattyn, Frank

2017-11-01

Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB), i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique - based on satellite observations - to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation). Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from -14.7 to 8.6 m a-1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km) lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a-1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks). However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing) toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite-based BMB values remain uncertain, we have

Variability and Controls of Plant Phenology in Drylands: A Novel Case Study from the Northern Chihuahuan Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, N. R.; Browning, D. M.; Tweedie, C. E.

2015-12-01

By mid century, arid ecosystems will likely comprise the largest terrestrial biome on the planet largely as a result of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. The size, extent, increased prevalence of shrubs, and large pool of soil carbon are just some of the underlying reasons why it is important to advance our understanding of biogeochemical cycling and energy balance in these landscapes and how change may alter feedbacks with other components of the Earth System. Although substantial progress has been made over the past decade, few studies have simultaneously examined how plant stress can constrain larger scale phenomenon (e.g. plant and landscape phenology), and how large scale phenomenon (e.g. climatic extremes and variability) can impact relatively small scale processes such as plant photosynthetic stress. This study, conducted in a creosote shrubland on the USDA Jornada Experimental Range (JER) in southern New Mexico during 2012-2015, documents seasonal changes in plant and landscape phenology (NPN protocols and phenocams) across four different land cover types (LCTs). The selected LCTs includes grassland, grassland-tobosa playa, shrubland-sandy ridge, and shrubland where each vegetative growth is captured with Windscape "PlantCams" between 11:00 am and 2:00 pm MST. An image processing program (Phenology Analyzer Software), developed in-house has been used to process and analyze imagery. Regions of interest (ROIs) were chosen at the plant and landscape scale to enable inter-comparison of plant phenological trends within and between LCTs using a well-acceted greenness index (Richardson et al. 2007). Timing of green-up was similar between sites but peak greenness varied between LCTs. Shrubland greenness was substantially greater than values from other LCTs. Ongoing analysis is also exploring the utility of alternate color spaces (HSV and L*a*b*) for describing plant phenology using custom phenocams maintained on the JER by UTEP Systems Ecology Lab. This

Rethinking "normal": The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird.

PubMed

Youngflesh, Casey; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Hinke, Jefferson T; DuBois, Lauren; St Leger, Judy; Trivelpiece, Wayne Z; Trivelpiece, Susan G; Lynch, Heather J

2018-05-01

Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for

Analysis of morpho-agronomic and climatic variables in successive agricultural years provides novel information regarding the phenological cycle of Jatropha in conditions of the Brazilian cerrado.

PubMed

Domiciano, Gisele P; Alves, Alexandre A; Laviola, Bruno G; Albrecht, Julio C

2014-12-01

Phenological studies can provide information that enables the understanding of the dynamics of plants and how these dynamics are related to the biotic and abiotic environment. In order to study the phenological phases of Jatropha during two agricultural years, agronomic and climatic variables, such as temperature and rainfall, were evaluated. Data for each variable in each year and each genotype were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the differences were tested at 5% probability by F test. In addition, the correlation of growth behavior and reproductive development of two Jatropha accessions (CNPAE-102 and CNPAE-169) as a function of time elapsed after the start of the phenological cycle with climatic variables were analyzed through Pearson's correlation. It was found that: (i) the resuming of plant growth by producing new branches and flowers of both genotypes coincides with the start of the rainy season, (ii) the flowering may be related to the increase in temperature and rainfall; (iii) the number of inflorescences per plant and number of female flowers determine the number of green fruits, (iv) the environmental changes are responsible for the delimitation of phenophases; and finally that (v) the responses to phenological changes are genotype-dependent.

Variability in Arctic sea ice topography and atmospheric form drag: Combining IceBridge laser altimetry with ASCAT radar backscatter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, A.; Tsamados, M.; Kurtz, N. T.

2016-12-01

Here we present atmospheric form drag estimates over Arctic sea ice using high resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), and surface roughness estimates from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). Surface features of the ice pack (e.g. pressure ridges) are detected using IceBridge ATM elevation data and a novel surface feature-picking algorithm. We use simple form drag parameterizations to convert the observed height and spacing of surface features into an effective atmospheric form drag coefficient. The results demonstrate strong regional variability in the atmospheric form drag coefficient, linked to variability in both the height and spacing of surface features. This includes form drag estimates around 2-3 times higher over the multiyear ice north of Greenland, compared to the first-year ice of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas. We compare results from both scanning and linear profiling to ensure our results are consistent with previous studies investigating form drag over Arctic sea ice. A strong correlation between ASCAT surface roughness estimates (using radar backscatter) and the IceBridge form drag results enable us to extrapolate the IceBridge data collected over the western-Arctic across the entire Arctic Ocean. While our focus is on spring, due to the timing of the primary IceBridge campaigns since 2009, we also take advantage of the autumn data collected by IceBridge in 2015 to investigate seasonality in Arctic ice topography and the resulting form drag coefficient. Our results offer the first large-scale assessment of atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice due to variable ice topography (i.e. within the Arctic pack ice). The analysis is being extended to the Antarctic IceBridge sea ice data, and the results are being used to calibrate a sophisticated form drag parameterization scheme included in the sea ice model CICE, to improve the representation of form drag over Arctic and

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronkainen, Iina; Lehtiranta, Jonni; Lensu, Mikko; Rinne, Eero; Hordoir, Robinson; Haapala, Jari

2017-04-01

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia In our study, we want to quantify the variability of sea ice volume and thickness in the Bay of Bothnia and to introduce the drivers of the observed variability. There has been similar studies, but only for fast ice. We use various different data sets: in-situ ice thickness data, remote sensing data, model data and ice charts. In-situ data is from the regular monitoring stations in the coastal fast ice zone and from field campaigns. The remote sensing data is helicopter-borne and ship-borne electromagnetic data. The models we use are HELMI and NEMO-Nordic. We analyze the different data sets and compare them to each other to solve the inter-annual variability and to discuss the ratio of level and deformed ice.

Toward a U.S. National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2010-01-01

Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.

Recent vegetation phenology variability and wild reindeer migration in Hardangervidda plateau (Norway)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courault, Romain; Franclet, Alexiane; Bourrand, Kévin; Bilodeau, Clélia; Saïd, Sonia; Cohen, Marianne

2018-05-01

More than others, arctic ecosystems are affected by consequences of global climate changes. The herbivorous plays numerous roles both in Scandinavian natural and cultural landscapes (Forbes et al., 2007). Wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus L.) herds in Hardangervidda plateau (Norway) constitute one of the isolated populations along Fennoscandia mountain range. The study aims to understand temporal and spatial variability of intra- and inter-annual home ranges extent and geophysical properties. We then characterize phenological variability with Corine Land Cover ecological habitat assessment and bi-monthly NDVI index (MODIS 13Q1, 250 m). Thirdly, we test relationships between reindeer's estimated densities and geophysical factors. All along the study, a Python toolbox ("GRiD") has been mounted and refined to fit with biogeographical expectancies. The toolbox let user's choice of inputs and facilitate then the gathering of raster datasets with given spatial extent of clipping and resolution. The grid generation and cells extraction gives one tabular output, allowing then to easily compute complex geostatistical analysis with regular spreadsheets. Results are based on reindeer's home ranges, associated extent (MODIS tile) and spatial resolution (250 m). Spatial mismatch of 0.6 % has been found between ecological habitat when comparing raw (100 m2) and new dataset (250 m2). Inter-annual home ranges analysis describes differences between inter-seasonal migrations (early spring, end of the summer) and calving or capitalizing times. For intra-annual home ranges, significant correlations have been found between reindeer's estimated densities and both altitudes and phenology. GRiD performance and biogeographical results suggests 1) to enhance geometric accuracy 2) better examine links between estimated densities and NDVI.

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Arctic Sea Ice Basal Melt Onset Variability and Associated Ocean Surface Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrick, R. A.; Hutchings, J. K.

2015-12-01

The interannual and regional variability in Arctic sea ice melt has previously been characterized only in terms of surface melting. A focus on the variability in the onset of basal melt is additionally required to understand Arctic melt patterns. Monitoring basal melt provides a glimpse into the importance of ocean heating to sea ice melt. This warming is predominantly through seawater exposure due to lead opening and the associated solar warming at the ocean's surface. We present the temporal variability in basal melt onset observed by ice mass balance buoys throughout the Arctic Ocean since 2003, providing a different perspective than the satellite microwave data used to measure the onset of surface melt. We found that melt onset varies greatly, even for buoys deployed within 100km of each other. Therefore large volumes of data are necessary to accurately estimate the variability of basal melt onset. Once the variability of basal melt onset has been identified, we can investigate how this range has been changing as a response to atmospheric and oceanic warming, changes in ice morphology as well as the intensification of the ice albedo feedback.

Dynamic Pulse-Driven Flowering Phenology in a Semiarid Shrubland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, N.; Papuga, S. A.; Kipnis, E. L.; Nelson, K.

2014-12-01

Elevated springtime temperature has been convincingly linked to an increasingly earlier onset of phenological activity. Studies highlighting this phenomenon have generally been conducted in ecosystems where energy is the primary limiting factor. Importantly, phenological studies in semiarid ecosystems where water is the major limiting factor are rare. In semiarid ecosystems, the timing of phenological activity is also highly sensitive to discrete moisture pulses from infrequent precipitation events. The objective of this study is to identify the triggers of flowering phenology in a semiarid creosotebush-dominated ecosystem. Creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) is a repeat-flowering evergreen shrub that is the dominant species in three of the North American deserts. We present results from six years of daily meteorological and phenological data collected within the Santa Rita Experimental Range in southern Arizona. Our site is equipped with an eddy covariance tower providing estimates of water and carbon fluxes and associated meteorological variables including precipitation and soil moisture at multiple depths. Additionally, three digital cameras distributed within the footprint of the eddy provide daily images of phenological activity. Our results highlight substantial interannual variability in flowering phenology, both in spring and summer flowering. We show that spring flowering activity tends to be associated with energy triggers (e.g. temperature, growing degree days), whereas summer flowering activity tends to be associated with moisture triggers (e.g. large precipitation events, deep soil moisture). Our study suggests that changes in frequency and duration of precipitation events will impact timing of phenological activity resulting in important consequences for vegetation dynamics and pollinator behavior.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino; Kwok, Ronald; Martin, Seelye; Gordon, Arnold L.

2011-01-01

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Strong and highly variable push of ocean waves on Southern Ocean sea ice.

PubMed

Stopa, Justin E; Sutherland, Peter; Ardhuin, Fabrice

2018-06-05

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean has expanded over most of the past 20 y, but the decline in sea ice since 2016 has taken experts by surprise. This recent evolution highlights the poor performance of numerical models for predicting extent and thickness, which is due to our poor understanding of ice dynamics. Ocean waves are known to play an important role in ice break-up and formation. In addition, as ocean waves decay, they cause a stress that pushes the ice in the direction of wave propagation. This wave stress could not previously be quantified due to insufficient observations at large scales. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radars (SARs) provide high-resolution imagery from which wave height is measured year round encompassing Antarctica since 2014. Our estimates give an average wave stress that is comparable to the average wind stress acting over 50 km of sea ice. We further reveal highly variable half-decay distances ranging from 400 m to 700 km, and wave stresses from 0.01 to 1 Pa. We expect that this variability is related to ice properties and possibly different floe sizes and ice thicknesses. A strong feedback of waves on sea ice, via break-up and rafting, may be the cause of highly variable sea-ice properties.

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2005-01-01

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, M.A.; de Beurs, K. M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; van, Leeuwen; Brown, Jesslyn F.; de Wit, A.; Schaepman, M.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.S.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.

2009-01-01

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deser, C.; Walsh, J.E.; Timlin, M.S.

Sea ice is a sensitive component of the climate system, influenced by conditions in both the atmosphere and ocean. Variations in sea ice may in turn modulate climate by altering the surface albedo; the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean; and the upper ocean stratification in areas of deep water formation. The surface albedo effect is considered to be one of the dominant factors in the poleward amplification of global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations simulated in many climate models. Forty years (1958--97) of reanalysis products and corresponding sea ice concentration data aremore » used to document Arctic sea ice variability and its association with surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The dominant mode of winter (January-March) sea ice variability exhibits out-of-phase fluctuations between the western and eastern North Atlantic, together with a weaker dipole in the North Pacific. The time series of this mode has a high winter-to-winter autocorrelation (0.69) and is dominated by decadal-scale variations and a longer-term trend of diminishing ice cover east of Greenland and increasing ice cover west of Greenland. Associated with the dominant pattern of winter sea ice variability are large-scale changes in SAT and SLP that closely resemble the North Atlantic oscillation. The associated SAT and surface sensible and latent heat flux anomalies are largest over the portions of the marginal sea ice zone in which the trends of ice coverage have been greatest, although the well-documented warming of the northern continental regions is also apparent. the temporal and spatial relationships between the SLP and ice anomaly fields are consistent with the notion that atmospheric circulation anomalies force the sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice variations. However

Future Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Area and its Implications for Marine Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Mioduszewski, J.; Holland, M. M.; Wang, M.; Landrum, L.

2016-12-01

As both a symbol and driver of ongoing climate change, the diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied in a variety of contexts. Most research, however, has focused on time-mean changes in sea ice, rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that interannual Arctic sea ice variability will increase in the future by utilizing a set of 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble for the 1920-2100 period. The model projects that ice variability will indeed grow substantially in all months but with a strong seasonal dependence in magnitude and timing. The variability increases most during late autumn (November-December) and least during spring. This increase proceeds in a time-transgressive manner over the course of the year, peaking soonest (2020s) in late-summer months and latest (2090s) during late spring. The variability in every month is inversely correlated with the average melt rate, resulting in an eventual decline in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal by late century. These projected changes in sea ice variations will likely have significant consequences for marine navigation, which we assess with the empirical Ice Numeral (IN) metric. A function of ice concentration and thickness, the IN quantifies the difficulty in traversing a transect of sea ice-covered ocean as a function of vessel strength. Our results show that although increasingly open Arctic seas will mean generally more favorable conditions for navigation, the concurrent rise in the variability of ice cover poses a competing risk. In particular, future intervals featuring the most rapid declines in ice area that coincide with the highest interannual ice variations will offer more inviting shipping opportunities tempered by less predictable navigational conditions.

Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.

Phenological Indicators of Vegetation Recovery in Wetland Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taddeo, S.; Dronova, I.

2017-12-01

Landscape phenology is increasingly used to measure the impacts of climatic and environmental disturbances on plant communities. As plants show rapid phenological responses to environmental changes, variation in site phenology can help characterize vegetation recovery following restoration treatments and qualify their resistance to environmental fluctuations. By leveraging free remote sensing datasets, a phenology-based analysis of vegetation dynamics could offer a cost-effective assessment of restoration progress in wetland ecosystems. To fulfill this objective, we analyze 20 years of free remote sensing data from NASA's Landsat archive to offer a landscape-scale synthesis of wetland restoration efforts in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California, USA. Through an analysis of spatio-temporal changes in plant phenology and greenness, we assess how 25 restored wetlands across the Delta have responded to restoration treatments, time, and landscape context. We use a spline smoothing approach to generate both site-wide and pixel-specific phenological curves and identify key phenological events. Preliminary results reveal a greater variability in greenness and growing season length during the initial post-restoration years and a significant impact of landscape context in the time needed to reach phenological stability. Well-connected sites seem to benefit from an increased availability of propagules enabling them to reach peak greenness and maximum growing season length more rapidly. These results demonstrate the potential of phenological analyses to measure restoration progress and detect factors promoting wetland recovery. A thorough understanding of wetland phenology is key to the quantification of ecosystem processes including carbon sequestration and habitat provisioning.

Vegetation coupling to global climate: Trajectories of vegetation change and phenology modeling from satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Jeremy Isaac

Important systematic shifts in ecosystem function are often masked by natural variability. The rich legacy of over two decades of continuous satellite observations provides an important database for distinguishing climatological and anthropogenic ecosystem changes. Examples from semi-arid Sudanian West Africa and New England (USA) illustrate the response of vegetation to climate and land-use. In Burkina Faso, West Africa, pastoral and agricultural practices compete for land area, while degradation may follow intensification. The Nouhao Valley is a natural experiment in which pastoral and agricultural land uses were allocated separate, coherent reserves. Trajectories of annual net primary productivity were derived from 18 years of coarse-grain (AVHRR) satellite data. Trends suggested that pastoral lands had responded rigorously to increasing rainfall after the 1980's droughts. A detailed analysis at Landsat resolution (30m) indicated that the increased vegetative cover was concentrated in the river basins of the pastoral region, implying a riparian wood expansion. In comparison, riparian cover was reduced in agricultural regions. We suggest that broad-scale patterns of increasing semi-arid West African greenness may be indicative of climate variability, whereas local losses may be anthropogenic in nature. The contiguous deciduous forests, ocean proximity, topography, and dense urban developments of New England provide an ideal landscape to examine influences of climate variability and the impact of urban development vegetation response. Spatial and temporal patterns of interannual climate variability were examined via green leaf phenology. Phenology, or seasonal growth and senescence, is driven by deficits of light, temperature, and water. In temperate environments, phenology variability is driven by interannual temperature and precipitation shifts. Average and interannual phenology analyses across southern New England were conducted at resolutions of 30m (Landsat

Incorporating Animals in Phenological Assessments: USA National Phenology Network Methods to Observe Animal Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller-Rushing, A. J.; Weltzin, J. F.

2009-12-01

Many assessments of phenology, particularly those operating at large scales, focus on the phenology of plants, in part because of the relevance of plants in cycles of leaf greening and browning that are visible from satellite-based remote sensing, and because plants contribute significantly to global and regional biogeochemical cycles. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), a consortium of individuals, agencies, and organizations, promotes integrated assessments of both plant and animal phenology. The network is currently developing standard methods to add animal phenology to existing assessments of plant phenology. The first phase will of the standard methods will be implemented online in spring 2010. The methods for observing animals will be similar to the standard methods for making on-the-ground observations of plants—observers will be asked to monitor a fixed location regularly throughout the year. During each visit, observers will answer a series of “yes-no” questions that address the phenological state of the species of interest: Is the species present? Is it mating? Is it feeding? And so on. We are currently testing this method in several national parks in the northeastern United States, including Acadia National Park and the Appalachian Trail. By collecting new observations of this sort for a range of animals—amphibians, birds, fish, insects, mammals, and reptiles—we will greatly increase the ability of scientists and natural resource managers to understand how temporal relationships among these species and the plants on which they depend may be changing. To bolster the data available, we are collaborating with existing monitoring programs to develop common monitoring techniques, data sharing technologies, and visualizations. We are also beginning to collect legacy datasets, such as one from North American Bird Phenology Program that includes 90 years of observations of bird migration times from across the continent. We believe that

Greenland Ice Sheet flow response to runoff variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Laura A.; Behn, Mark D.; Das, Sarah B.; Joughin, Ian; Noël, Brice P. Y.; Broeke, Michiel R.; Herring, Thomas

2016-11-01

We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no statistically significant relationship between runoff season characteristics and ice flow velocities within a given year or season. Over the 7 year time series, annual velocities at North Lake decrease at an average rate of -0.9 ± 1.1 m yr-2, consistent with the negative trend in annual velocities observed in neighboring regions over recent decades. We find that net runoff integrated over several preceding years has a negative correlation with annual velocities, similar to findings from the two other available decadal records of ice velocity in western Greenland. However, we argue that this correlation is not necessarily evidence for a direct hydrologic mechanism acting on the timescale of multiple years but could be a statistical construct. Finally, we stress that neither the decadal slowdown trend nor the negative correlation between velocity and integrated runoff is predicted by current ice-sheet models, underscoring that these models do not yet capture all the relevant feedbacks between runoff and ice dynamics needed to predict long-term trends in ice sheet flow.

A new improved database to support spanish phenological observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Fresneda, Ramiro; Martínez-Núñez, Lourdes; Botey-Fullat, Roser; Gallego-Abaroa, Teresa; De Cara-García, Juan Antonio; Rodríguez-Ballesteros, César

2017-04-01

Since the last 30 years, phenology has regained scientific interest as the most reported biological indicator of anthropogenic climate change. AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) has long records in the field of phenological observations, since the 1940s. However, there is a large variety of paper records which are necessary to digitalize. On the other hand, it had been necessary to adapt our methods to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines (BBCH code, data documentation- metadata…) and to standardize phenological stages and species in order to provide information to PEP725 (Pan European Phenology Database). Consequently, AEMET is developing a long-term, multi-taxa phenological database to support research and scientific studies about climate, their variability and influence on natural ecosystems, agriculture, etc. This paper presents the steps that are being carried out in order to achieve this goal.

Mapping and assessing variability in the Antarctic marginal ice zone, pack ice and coastal polynyas in two sea ice algorithms with implications on breeding success of snow petrels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Campbell, G. Garrett; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine

2016-08-01

Sea ice variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and polynyas plays an important role for phytoplankton productivity and krill abundance. Therefore, mapping their spatial extent as well as seasonal and interannual variability is essential for understanding how current and future changes in these biologically active regions may impact the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Knowledge of the distribution of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas in the total Antarctic sea ice cover may also help to shed light on the factors contributing towards recent expansion of the Antarctic ice cover in some regions and contraction in others. The long-term passive microwave satellite data record provides the longest and most consistent record for assessing the proportion of the sea ice cover that is covered by each of these ice categories. However, estimates of the amount of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and polynyas depend strongly on which sea ice algorithm is used. This study uses two popular passive microwave sea ice algorithms, the NASA Team and Bootstrap, and applies the same thresholds to the sea ice concentrations to evaluate the distribution and variability in the MIZ, the consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas. Results reveal that the seasonal cycle in the MIZ and pack ice is generally similar between both algorithms, yet the NASA Team algorithm has on average twice the MIZ and half the consolidated pack ice area as the Bootstrap algorithm. Trends also differ, with the Bootstrap algorithm suggesting statistically significant trends towards increased pack ice area and no statistically significant trends in the MIZ. The NASA Team algorithm on the other hand indicates statistically significant positive trends in the MIZ during spring. Potential coastal polynya area and amount of broken ice within the consolidated ice pack are also larger in the NASA Team algorithm. The timing of maximum polynya area may differ by as much as 5 months between algorithms. These

Arctic ice shelves and ice islands: Origin, growth and disintegration, physical characteristics, structural-stratigraphic variability, and dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffries, M.O.

1992-08-01

Ice shelves are thick, floating ice masses most often associated with Antarctica where they are seaward extensions of the grounded Antarctic ice sheet and sources of many icebergs. However, there are also ice shelves in the Arctic, primarily located along the north coast of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. The only ice shelves in North America and the most extensive in the north polar region, the Ellesmere ice shelves originate from glaciers and from sea ice and are the source of ice islands, the tabular icebergs of the Arctic Ocean. The present state of knowledge and understanding ofmore » these ice features is summarized in this paper. It includes historical background to the discovery and early study of ice shelves and ice islands, including the use of ice islands as floating laboratories for polar geophysical research. Growth mechanisms and age, the former extent and the twentieth century disintegration of the Ellesmere ice shelves, and the processes and mechanisms of ice island calving are summarized. Surface features, thickness, thermal regime, and the size, shape, and numbers of ice islands are discussed. The structural-stratigraphic variability of ice islands and ice shelves and the complex nature of their growth and development are described. Large-scale and small-scale dynamics of ice islands are described, and the results of modeling their drift and recurrence intervals are presented. The conclusion identifies some unanswered questions and future research opportunities and needs. 97 refs., 18 figs.« less

The potential of using Landsat time-series to extract tropical dry forest phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Helmer, E.

2016-12-01

Vegetation phenology is the timing of seasonal developmental stages in plant life cycles. Due to the persistent cloud cover in tropical regions, current studies often use satellite data with high frequency, such as AVHRR and MODIS, to detect vegetation phenology. However, the spatial resolution of these data is from 250 m to 1 km, which does not have enough spatial details and it is difficult to relate to field observations. To produce maps of phenology at a finer spatial resolution, this study explores the feasibility of using Landsat images to detect tropical forest phenology through reconstructing a high-quality, seasonal time-series of images, and tested it in Mona Island, Puerto Rico. First, an automatic method was applied to detect cloud and cloud shadow, and a spatial interpolator was use to retrieve pixels covered by clouds, shadows, and SLC-off gaps. Second, enhanced vegetation index time-series derived from the reconstructed Landsat images were used to detect 11 phenology variables. Detected phenology is consistent with field investigations, and its spatial pattern is consistent with the rainfall distribution on this island. In addition, we may expect that phenology should correlate with forest biophysical attributes, so 47 plots with field measurement of biophysical attributes were used to indirectly validate the phenology product. Results show that phenology variables can explain a lot of variations in biophysical attributes. This study suggests that Landsat time-series has great potential to detect phenology in tropical areas.

Phenology Across the LTER Network: Initial Findings, Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, G. M.

2007-12-01

Phenology is, in the words of Aldo Leopold, a "horizontal science" that cuts across and binds together multiple biological disciplines. It is a far-reaching but poorly understood aspect of the environmental sciences. Phenological research has been a component of the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network at several sites over the years. However, it has not received the attention or resources to bring it to the forefront as an effective theme for interdisciplinary and cross-site synthesis. With the recent establishment of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN), it is appropriate to assess the status of phenological knowledge across the LTER Network. A workshop funded by the LTER Network Office took place at the Sevilleta Field Station during February 26 to March 2, 2007. From the workshop three main products emerged: (1) an inventory of LTER phenology datasets, (2) establishment of a website to facilitate information interchange, and (3) a white paper recommending next steps for the LTER Network to engage the USA-NPN. This poster relates the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including a summary of phenologically explicit and phenologically implicit LTER datasets and illustrations of how the climatic envelopes described by simple weather variables can provide context for phenological comparisons within and across sites.

Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2015-04-01

Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the

Climate as a driver of phenological change in southern seabirds.

PubMed

Chambers, Lynda E; Dann, Peter; Cannell, Belinda; Woehler, Eric J

2014-05-01

Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are over-represented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.

A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jeremy M.; Lajeunesse, Marc J.; Rohr, Jason R.

2018-03-01

Shifts in phenology are already resulting in disruptions to the timing of migration and breeding, and asynchronies between interacting species1-5. Recent syntheses have concluded that trophic level1, latitude6 and how phenological responses are measured7 are key to determining the strength of phenological responses to climate change. However, researchers still lack a comprehensive framework that can predict responses to climate change globally and across diverse taxa. Here, we synthesize hundreds of published time series of animal phenology from across the planet to show that temperature primarily drives phenological responses at mid-latitudes, with precipitation becoming important at lower latitudes, probably reflecting factors that drive seasonality in each region. Phylogeny and body size are associated with the strength of phenological shifts, suggesting emerging asynchronies between interacting species that differ in body size, such as hosts and parasites and predators and prey. Finally, although there are many compelling biological explanations for spring phenological delays, some examples of delays are associated with short annual records that are prone to sampling error. Our findings arm biologists with predictions concerning which climatic variables and organismal traits drive phenological shifts.

The phenology of Arctic Ocean surface warming.

PubMed

Steele, Michael; Dickinson, Suzanne

2016-09-01

In this work, we explore the seasonal relationships (i.e., the phenology) between sea ice retreat, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric heat fluxes in the Pacific Sector of the Arctic Ocean, using satellite and reanalysis data. We find that where ice retreats early in most years, maximum summertime SSTs are usually warmer, relative to areas with later retreat. For any particular year, we find that anomalously early ice retreat generally leads to anomalously warm SSTs. However, this relationship is weak in the Chukchi Sea, where ocean advection plays a large role. It is also weak where retreat in a particular year happens earlier than usual, but still relatively late in the season, primarily because atmospheric heat fluxes are weak at that time. This result helps to explain the very different ocean warming responses found in two recent years with extreme ice retreat, 2007 and 2012. We also find that the timing of ice retreat impacts the date of maximum SST, owing to a change in the ocean surface buoyancy and momentum forcing that occurs in early August that we term the Late Summer Transition (LST). After the LST, enhanced mixing of the upper ocean leads to cooling of the ocean surface even while atmospheric heat fluxes are still weakly downward. Our results indicate that in the near-term, earlier ice retreat is likely to cause enhanced ocean surface warming in much of the Arctic Ocean, although not where ice retreat still occurs late in the season.

Wood phenology: from organ-scale processes to terrestrial ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delpierre, Nicolas; Guillemot, Joannès

2016-04-01

In temperate and boreal trees, a dormancy period prevents organ development during adverse climatic conditions. Whereas the phenology of leaves and flowers has received considerable attention, to date, little is known regarding the phenology of other tree organs such as wood, fine roots, fruits and reserve compounds. In this presentation, we review both the role of environmental drivers in determining the phenology of wood and the models used to predict its phenology in temperate and boreal forest trees. Temperature is a key driver of the resumption of wood activity in spring. There is no such clear dominant environmental cue involved in the cessation of wood formation in autumn, but temperature and water stress appear as prominent factors. We show that wood phenology is a key driver of the interannual variability of wood growth in temperate tree species. Incorporating representations of wood phenology in a terrestrial ecosystem model substantially improved the simulation of wood growth under current climate.

Phenological and physiological mechanisms underlying interannual variability of terrestrial net ecosystem production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.; Luo, Y.; Hui, D.; Chen, J.

2013-12-01

The interannual variability (IAV) of atmospheric CO2 concentration varies substantial and is largely ascribed to IAV of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. However, we have limited understanding on the mechanisms that control the IAV on the carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we hypothesized that physiological and phonological processes regulate IAV significantly in terrestrial carbon uptake (i.e., net ecosystem production, NEP). To test this hypothesis, we analyzed eddy-covariance data from 24 sites with more than 8 years data in deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), evergreen forests (EF), and grasslands (GRA) in the northern hemisphere. Ecosystem physiology is represented by the maximum carbon uptake capacity (NEPmax) in one year whereas phonology is represented by carbon uptake period (CUP). We found that yearly anomalies of CUP and NEPmax accounted for 40% and 60% separately, and 73% in combination, of the anomalies in annual NEP across all the 253 site-years, with their relative contributions varying among the sites. The IAV of CUP was determined by the anomalies of spring and autumn carbon uptake phenology, both of which were sensitive to climate changes but controlled by different environmental factors in different biomes. IAV of NEPmax was determined by summer precipitation anomalies in DBF and GRA. The results suggest that IAV of NEP is consistently co-determined by CUP and NEPmax anomalies among sites in the northern hemisphere. Overall, the mechanisms revealed by our study on NEP anomalies through changing in phenology and physiology contribute to predictive understanding of temporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon uptake.

Forward Modeling of Oxygen Isotope Variability in Tropical Andean Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M. F.; Hurley, J. V.; Hardy, D. R.

2016-12-01

Ice core records from the tropical Andes serve as important archives of past tropical Pacific SST variability and changes in monsoon intensity upstream over the Amazon basin. Yet the interpretation of the oxygen isotopic signal in these ice cores remains controversial. Based on 10 years of continuous on-site glaciologic, meteorologic and isotopic measurements at the summit of the world's largest tropical ice cap, Quelccaya, in southern Peru, we developed a process-based physical forward model (proxy system model), capable of simulating intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability in delta-18O as observed in snow pits and short cores. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account post-depositional effects (sublimation and isotopic enrichment) to properly simulate the seasonal cycle. Intraseasonal variability is underestimated in our model unless the effects of cold air incursions, triggering significant monsoonal snowfall and more negative delta-18O values, are included. A number of sensitivity test highlight the influence of changing boundary conditions on the final snow isotopic profile. Such tests also show that our model provides much more realistic data than applying direct model output of precipitation delta-18O from isotope-enabled climate models (SWING ensemble). The forward model was calibrated with and run under present-day conditions, but it can also be driven with past climate forcings to reconstruct paleo-monsoon variability and investigate the influence of changes in radiative forcings (solar, volcanic) on delta-18O variability in Andean snow. The model is transferable and may be used to render a paleoclimatic context at other ice core locations.

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Chambers, Lynda E.; Altwegg, Res; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnard, Phoebe; Beaumont, Linda J.; Crawford, Robert J. M.; Durant, Joel M.; Hughes, Lesley; Keatley, Marie R.; Low, Matt; Morellato, Patricia C.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Ruoppolo, Valeria; Vanstreels, Ralph E. T.; Woehler, Eric J.; Wolfaardt, Anton C.

2013-01-01

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Betancourt, Ricardo Morales; Barahona, Donifan; Nenes, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Understanding cirrus ice crystal number variability for different heterogeneous ice nucleation spectra

DOE PAGES

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Morales Betancourt, Ricardo; Barahona, Donifan; ...

2016-03-03

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, N i, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of N i to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand N i variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, andmore » simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of N i sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. In conclusion, N i sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.« less

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Arctic sea ice variability during the last deglaciation: a biomarker approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, J.; Stein, R. H.

2014-12-01

The last transition from full glacial to current interglacial conditions was accompanied by distinct short-term climate fluctuations caused by changes in the global ocean circulation system. Most palaeoceanographic studies focus on the documentation of the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the last deglaciation in response to freshwater forcing events. In this respect, the role of Arctic sea ice remained relatively unconsidered - primarily because of the difficulty of its reconstruction. Here we present new proxy data on late glacial (including the Last Glacial Maximum; LGM) and deglacial sea ice variability in the Arctic Ocean and its main gateway - the Fram Strait - and how these changes in sea ice coverage contributed to AMOC perturbations observed during Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas. Recurrent short-term advances and retreats of sea ice in Fram Strait, prior and during the LGM, are in line with a variable (or intermittent) North Atlantic heat flow along the eastern corridor of the Nordic Seas. Possibly in direct response to the initial freshwater discharge from melting continental ice-sheets, a permanent sea ice cover established only at about 19 ka BP (i.e. post-LGM) and lasted until 17.6 ka BP, when an abrupt break-up of this thick ice cover and a sudden discharge of huge amounts of sea ice and icebergs through Fram Strait coincided with the weakening of the AMOC during Heinrich Event 1. Similarly, another sea ice maximum at about 12.8 ka BP is associated with the slowdown of the AMOC during the Younger Dryas. The new data sets clearly highlight the important role of Arctic sea ice for the re-organisation of the oceanographic setting in the North Atlantic during the last deglaciation. Further studies and sensitivity experiments to identify crucial driving (and feedback) mechanisms within the High Latitude ice-ocean-atmosphere system will contribute the understanding of rapid climate changes.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Meltwater Refreezing in Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet Firn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rennermalm, A. K.; Hock, R.; Tedesco, M.; Corti, G.; Covi, F.; Miège, C.; Kingslake, J.; Leidman, S. Z.; Munsell, S.

2017-12-01

A substantial fraction of the summer meltwater formed on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet is retained in firn, while the remaining portion runs to the ocean through surface and subsurface channels. Refreezing of meltwater in firn can create impenetrable ice lenses, hence being a crucial process in the redistribution of surface runoff. To quantify the impact of refreezing on runoff and current and future Greenland surface mass balance, a three year National Science Foundation funded project titled "Refreezing in the firn of the Greenland ice sheet: Spatiotemporal variability and implications for ice sheet mass balance" started this past year. Here we present an overview of the project and some initial results from the first field season in May 2017 conducted in proximity of the DYE-2 site in the percolation zone of the Southwest Greenland ice sheet at elevations between 1963 and 2355 m a.s.l.. During this fieldwork two automatic weather stations were deployed, outfitted with surface energy balance sensors and 16 m long thermistor strings, over 300 km of ground penetrating radar data were collected, and five 20-26 m deep firn cores were extracted and analyzed for density and stratigraphy. Winter snow accumulation was measured along the radar tracks. Preliminary work on the firn-core data reveals increasing frequency and thickness of ice lenses at lower ice-sheet elevations, in agreement with other recent work in the area. Data collected within this project will facilitate advances in our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of firn refreezing and its role in the hydrology and surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Phenological response of an Arizona dryland forest to short-term climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, Jessica; de Beurs, Kirsten; Wynne, Randolph

2015-01-01

Baseline information about dryland forest phenology is necessary to accurately anticipate future ecosystem shifts. The overarching goal of our study was to investigate the variability of vegetation phenology across a dryland forest landscape in response to climate alterations. We analyzed the influence of site characteristics and climatic conditions on the phenological patterns of an Arizona, USA, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest during a five-year period (2005 to 2009) that encompassed extreme wet and dry precipitation regimes. We assembled 80 synthetic Landsat images by applying the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion method (STARFM) to 500 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. We tested relationships between site characteristics and the timing of peak Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess the effect of climatic stress on the green-up of individual pixels during or after the summer monsoon. Our results show that drought-induced stress led to a fragmented phenological response that was highly dependent on microsite parameters, as both the spatial autocorrelation of peak timing and the number of significant site variables increased during the drought year. Pixels at lower elevations and with higher proportions of herbaceous vegetation were more likely to exhibit dynamic responses to changes in precipitation conditions. Our study demonstrates the complexity of responses within dryland forest ecosystems and highlights the need for standardized monitoring of phenology trends in these areas. The spatial and temporal variability of phenological signals may provide a quantitative solution to the problem of how to evaluate dryland land surface trends across time.

Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Xiayong; Friedl, Mark A.; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Strahler, Alan H.; Hodges, John C.F.; Gao, Feng; Reed, Bradley C.; Huete, Alfredo

2003-01-01

Accurate measurements of regional to global scale vegetation dynamics (phenology) are required to improve models and understanding of inter-annual variability in terrestrial ecosystem carbon exchange and climate–biosphere interactions. Since the mid-1980s, satellite data have been used to study these processes. In this paper, a new methodology to monitor global vegetation phenology from time series of satellite data is presented. The method uses series of piecewise logistic functions, which are fit to remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) data, to represent intra-annual vegetation dynamics. Using this approach, transition dates for vegetation activity within annual time series of VI data can be determined from satellite data. The method allows vegetation dynamics to be monitored at large scales in a fashion that it is ecologically meaningful and does not require pre-smoothing of data or the use of user-defined thresholds. Preliminary results based on an annual time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the northeastern United States demonstrate that the method is able to monitor vegetation phenology with good success.

Phenology Atlas of Czechia in preparation - aim & content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajkova, L.; Nekovar, J.; Novak, M.; Richterova, D.

2009-09-01

The main task is to create Phenology Atlas of Czechia for the period 1991 - 2010 by using geographic information systems. The general outputs will be maps (average phenophase onset at different altitudes), graphs (evaluation of phenophase onset in time) and tables (statistical results) with text, picture and botanical specification. The publication will be divided into 6 main chapters (Introduction, Phenology in Czechia & Europe, Methodology of observation, Field crops & Fruit trees & Wild plants, Phenology regionalisation, Temporal and Spatial variability). The essantial emphasis will be enforced on wild plants especially allergology important plants and phenophases. CHMI phenological and meteorological data will be used as an input data. This publication will be allocated for general public, supposed size B4, 270 - 300 pages. The research project is proposed for 3 years (2009 - 2011). In the presentation will be given several examples of Atlas content (Norway Spruce and Birch phenophases from Transaction of CHMI Nr.50, 2007).

Phenology and growth adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to photoperiod and climate variability

PubMed Central

Legros, S.; Mialet-Serra, I.; Caliman, J.-P.; Siregar, F. A.; Clément-Vidal, A.; Dingkuhn, M.

2009-01-01

Background and Aims Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Methods Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006–2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall – potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001–2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Key Results Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0°55′N) but the Batu Mulia site (3°12′S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 × n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. Conclusion It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models. PMID:19748909

Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

e-phenology: monitoring leaf phenology and tracking climate changes in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellato, Patrícia; Alberton, Bruna; Almeida, Jurandy; Alex, Jefersson; Mariano, Greice; Torres, Ricardo

2014-05-01

The e-phenology is a multidisciplinary project combining research in Computer Science and Phenology. Its goal is to attack theoretical and practical problems involving the use of new technologies for remote phenological observation aiming to detect local environmental changes. It is geared towards three objectives: (a) the use of new technologies of environmental monitoring based on remote phenology monitoring systems; (b) creation of a protocol for a Brazilian long term phenology monitoring program and for the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to climate change; and (c) provide models, methods and algorithms to support management, integration and analysis of data of remote phenology systems. The research team is composed by computer scientists and biology researchers in Phenology. Our first results include: Phenology towers - We set up the first phenology tower in our core cerrado-savanna 1 study site at Itirapina, São Paulo, Brazil. The tower received a complete climatic station and a digital camera. The digital camera is set up to take daily sequence of images (five images per hour, from 6:00 to 18:00 h). We set up similar phenology towers with climatic station and cameras in five more sites: cerrado-savanna 2 (Pé de Gigante, SP), cerrado grassland 3 (Itirapina, SP), rupestrian fields 4 ( Serra do Cipo, MG), seasonal forest 5 (Angatuba, SP) and Atlantic raiforest 6 (Santa Virginia, SP). Phenology database - We finished modeling and validation of a phenology database that stores ground phenology and near-remote phenology, and we are carrying out the implementation with data ingestion. Remote phenology and image processing - We performed the first analyses of the cerrado sites 1 to 4 phenology derived from digital images. Analysis were conducted by extracting color information (RGB Red, Green and Blue color channels) from selected parts of the image named regions of interest (ROI). using the green color

RICE ice core: Black Carbon reflects climate variability at Roosevelt Island, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Aja; Edwards, Ross; Bertler, Nancy; Winton, Holly; Goodwin, Ian; Neff, Peter; Tuohy, Andrea; Proemse, Bernadette; Hogan, Chad; Feiteng, Wang

2015-04-01

The Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project successfully drilled a deep ice core from Roosevelt Island during the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 seasons. Located in the Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica, the site is an ideal location for investigating climate variability and the past stability of the Ross Ice Shelf. Black carbon (BC) aerosols are emitted by both biomass burning and fossil fuels, and BC particles emitted in the southern hemisphere are transported in the atmosphere and preserved in Antarctic ice. The past record of BC is expected to be sensitive to climate variability, as it is modulated by both emissions and transport. To investigate BC variability over the past 200 years, we developed a BC record from two overlapping ice cores (~1850-2012) and a high-resolution snow pit spanning 2010-2012 (cal. yr). Consistent results are found between the snow pit profiles and ice core records. Distinct decadal trends are found with respect to BC particle size, and the record indicates a steady rise in BC particle size over the last 100 years. Differences in emission sources and conditions may be a possible explanation for changes in BC size. These records also show a significant increase in BC concentration over the past decade with concentrations rising over 1.5 ppb (1.5*10^-9 ng/g), suggesting a fundamental shift in BC deposition to the site.

Nutrient status: a missing factor in phenological and pollen research?

PubMed Central

Jochner, Susanne; Höfler, Josef; Beck, Isabelle; Göttlein, Axel; Ankerst, Donna Pauler; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Menzel, Annette

2013-01-01

Phenology ranks among the best ecosystem processes for fingerprinting climate change since temperature explains a high percentage of the interannual or spatial variation in phenological onset dates. However, roles of other environmental variables, such as foliar nutrient concentrations, are far from adequately understood. This observational study examined the effects of air temperature and 11 nutrients on spring phenology of Betula pendula Roth (birch) along an urban–rural gradient in Munich, Germany, during the years 2010/2011. Moreover, the influence of temperature, nutrients, and air pollutants (NO2 and O3) on the amounts of pollen and catkin biomass in 2010 was evaluated. In addition to the influence of higher temperatures advancing phenological onset dates, higher foliar concentrations of potassium, boron, zinc, and calcium were statistically significantly linked to earlier onset dates. Since flushing of leaves is a turgor-driven process and all the influential nutrients are involved in cell extension, membrane function, and stability, there might be a reasonable physiological interpretation of the observed association. The amounts of pollen were negatively correlated with temperature, atmospheric NO2, and foliar iron concentration, suggesting that these variables restrict pollen production. The results of this study suggested an influence of nutritional status on both phenology and pollen production. The interaction of urbanization and climate change should be considered in the assessment of the impact of global warming on ecosystems and human health. PMID:23630329

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-01-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Phenological Responses to ENSO in the Global Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racault, M.-F.; Sathyendranath, S.; Menon, N.; Platt, T.

2017-01-01

Phenology relates to the study of timing of periodic events in the life cycle of plants or animals as influenced by environmental conditions and climatic forcing. Phenological metrics provide information essential to quantify variations in the life cycle of these organisms. The metrics also allow us to estimate the speed at which living organisms respond to environmental changes. At the surface of the oceans, microscopic plant cells, so-called phytoplankton, grow and sometimes form blooms, with concentrations reaching up to 100 million cells per litre and extending over many square kilometres. These blooms can have a huge collective impact on ocean colour, because they contain chlorophyll and other auxiliary pigments, making them visible from space. Phytoplankton populations have a high turnover rate and can respond within hours to days to environmental perturbations. This makes them ideal indicators to study the first-level biological response to environmental changes. In the Earth's climate system, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates large-scale inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. It serves as a natural experiment to study and understand how phytoplankton in the ocean (and hence the organisms at higher trophic levels) respond to climate variability. Here, the ENSO influence on phytoplankton is estimated through variations in chlorophyll concentration, primary production and timings of initiation, peak, termination and duration of the growing period. The phenological variabilities are used to characterise phytoplankton responses to changes in some physical variables: sea surface temperature, sea surface height and wind. It is reported that in oceanic regions experiencing high annual variations in the solar cycle, such as in high latitudes, the influence of ENSO may be readily measured using annual mean anomalies of physical variables. In contrast, in oceanic regions where ENSO modulates a climate system characterised by a seasonal

Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

PubMed

Dutrieux, Pierre; De Rydt, Jan; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Steig, Eric J; Ding, Qinghua; Abrahamsen, E Povl; Schröder, Michael

2014-01-10

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

Land surface phenology of Northeast China during 2000-2015: temporal changes and relationships with climate changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yue; Li, Lin; Wang, Hongbin; Zhang, Yao; Wang, Naijia; Chen, Junpeng

2017-10-01

As an important crop growing area, Northeast China (NEC) plays a vital role in China's food security, which has been severely affected by climate change in recent years. Vegetation phenology in this region is sensitive to climate change, and currently, the relationship between the phenology of NEC and climate change remains unclear. In this study, we used a satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to obtain the temporal patterns of the land surface phenology in NEC from 2000 to 2015 and validated the results using ground phenology observations. We then explored the relationships among land surface phenology, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours for relevant periods. Our results showed that the NEC experienced great phenological changes in terms of spatial heterogeneity during 2000-2015. The spatial patterns of land surface phenology mainly changed with altitude and land cover type. In most regions of NEC, the start date of land surface phenology had advanced by approximately 1.0 days year -1 , and the length of land surface phenology had been prolonged by approximately 1.0 days year -1 except for the needle-leaf and cropland areas, due to the warm conditions. We found that a distinct inter-annual variation in land surface phenology related to climate variables, even if some areas presented non-significant trends. Land surface phenology was coupled with climate variables and distinct responses at different combinations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, altitude, and anthropogenic influence. These findings suggest that remote sensing and our phenology extracting methods hold great potential for helping to understand how land surface phenology is sensitive to global climate change.

Towards new approaches in phenological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Rawel, Harshard M.; Homann, Thomas

2014-05-01

Modelling of phenological stages is based on temperature sums for many decades, describing both the chilling and the forcing requirement of woody plants until the beginning of leafing or flowering. Parts of this approach go back to Reaumur (1735), who originally proposed the concept of growing degree-days. Now, there is a growing body of opinion that asks for new methods in phenological modelling and more in-depth studies on dormancy release of woody plants. This requirement is easily understandable if we consider the wide application of phenological models, which can even affect the results of climate models. To this day, in phenological models still a number of parameters need to be optimised on observations, although some basic physiological knowledge of the chilling and forcing requirement of plants is already considered in these approaches (semi-mechanistic models). Limiting, for a fundamental improvement of these models, is the lack of knowledge about the course of dormancy in woody plants, which cannot be directly observed and which is also insufficiently described in the literature. Modern metabolomic methods provide a solution for this problem and allow both, the validation of currently used phenological models as well as the development of mechanistic approaches. In order to develop this kind of models, changes of metabolites (concentration, temporal course) must be set in relation to the variability of environmental (steering) parameters (weather, day length, etc.). This necessarily requires multi-year (3-5 yr.) and high-resolution (weekly probes between autumn and spring) data. The feasibility of this approach has already been tested in a 3-year pilot-study on sweet cherries. Our suggested methodology is not only limited to the flowering of fruit trees, it can be also applied to tree species of the natural vegetation, where even greater deficits in phenological modelling exist.

Asynchronous vegetation phenology enhances winter body condition of a large mobile herbivore.

PubMed

Searle, Kate R; Rice, Mindy B; Anderson, Charles R; Bishop, Chad; Hobbs, N T

2015-10-01

Understanding how spatial and temporal heterogeneity influence ecological processes forms a central challenge in ecology. Individual responses to heterogeneity shape population dynamics, therefore understanding these responses is central to sustainable population management. Emerging evidence has shown that herbivores track heterogeneity in nutritional quality of vegetation by responding to phenological differences in plants. We quantified the benefits mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) accrue from accessing habitats with asynchronous plant phenology in northwest Colorado over 3 years. Our analysis examined both the direct physiological and indirect environmental effects of weather and vegetation phenology on mule deer winter body condition. We identified several important effects of annual weather patterns and topographical variables on vegetation phenology in the home ranges of mule deer. Crucially, temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were linked with differences in body condition, with deer tending to show poorer body condition in areas with less asynchronous vegetation green-up and later vegetation onset. The direct physiological effect of previous winter precipitation on mule deer body condition was much less important than the indirect effect mediated by vegetation phenology. Additionally, the influence of vegetation phenology on body fat was much stronger than that of overall vegetation productivity. In summary, changing annual weather patterns, particularly in relation to seasonal precipitation, have the potential to alter body condition of this important ungulate species during the critical winter period. This finding highlights the importance of maintaining large contiguous areas of spatially and temporally variable resources to allow animals to compensate behaviourally for changing climate-driven resource patterns.

Interannual variability of high ice cloud properties over the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, S.; Iwabuchi, H.

2015-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects atmospheric conditions and cloud physical properties such as cloud fraction (CF) and cloud top height (CTH). However, an impact of the ENSO on physical properties in high-ice cloud is not well known. Therefore, this study attempts to reveal relationship between variability of ice cloud physical properties and ENSO. Ice clouds are inferred with the multiband IR method in this study. Ice clouds are categorized in terms of cloud optical thickness (COT) as thin (0.1< COT <0.3), opaque (0.3< COT <3.6), thick (3.6< COT <11), and deep convective (DC) (11< COT) clouds, and relationship between ENSO and interannual variability of cloud physical properties is investigated for each category during the period from January 2003 to December 2014. The deseasonalized anomalies of CF and CTH in all categories correlate well with Niño3.4 index, with positive anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative anomaly over the western Pacific during El Niño condition. However, the global distribution of these correlation coefficients is different by cloud categories. For example, CF of DC correlates well with Niño3.4 index over the convergence zone, while, that of thin cloud shows high correlation extending to high latitude from convergence zone, suggesting a connection with cloud formation. The global distributions of average rate of change differ by cloud category, because the different associate with ENSO and gradual trend toward La Niña condition had occurred over the analysis period. In this conference, detailed results and relationship between variability of cloud physical properties and atmospheric conditions will be shown.

Change and variability in East antarctic sea ice seasonality, 1979/80-2009/10.

PubMed

Massom, Robert; Reid, Philip; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Raymond, Ben; Fraser, Alexander; Ushio, Shuki

2013-01-01

Recent analyses have shown that significant changes have occurred in patterns of sea ice seasonality in West Antarctica since 1979, with wide-ranging climatic, biological and biogeochemical consequences. Here, we provide the first detailed report on long-term change and variability in annual timings of sea ice advance, retreat and resultant ice season duration in East Antarctica. These were calculated from satellite-derived ice concentration data for the period 1979/80 to 2009/10. The pattern of change in sea ice seasonality off East Antarctica comprises mixed signals on regional to local scales, with pockets of strongly positive and negative trends occurring in near juxtaposition in certain regions e.g., Prydz Bay. This pattern strongly reflects change and variability in different elements of the marine "icescape", including fast ice, polynyas and the marginal ice zone. A trend towards shorter sea-ice duration (of 1 to 3 days per annum) occurs in fairly isolated pockets in the outer pack from∼95-110°E, and in various near-coastal areas that include an area of particularly strong and persistent change near Australia's Davis Station and between the Amery and West Ice Shelves. These areas are largely associated with coastal polynyas that are important as sites of enhanced sea ice production/melt. Areas of positive trend in ice season duration are more extensive, and include an extensive zone from 160-170°E (i.e., the western Ross Sea sector) and the near-coastal zone between 40-100°E. The East Antarctic pattern is considerably more complex than the well-documented trends in West Antarctica e.g., in the Antarctic Peninsula-Bellingshausen Sea and western Ross Sea sectors.

Small scale variability of snow properties on Antarctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wever, Nander; Leonard, Katherine; Paul, Stephan; Jacobi, Hans-Werner; Proksch, Martin; Lehning, Michael

2016-04-01

Snow on sea ice plays an important role in air-ice-sea interactions, as snow accumulation may for example increase the albedo. Snow is also able to smooth the ice surface, thereby reducing the surface roughness, while at the same time it may generate new roughness elements by interactions with the wind. Snow density is a key property in many processes, for example by influencing the thermal conductivity of the snow layer, radiative transfer inside the snow as well as the effects of aerodynamic forcing on the snowpack. By comparing snow density and grain size from snow pits and snow micro penetrometer (SMP) measurements, highly resolved density and grain size profiles were acquired during two subsequent cruises of the RV Polarstern in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, between June and October 2013. During the first cruise, SMP measurements were done along two approximately 40 m transects with a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 cm. During the second cruise, one transect was made with approximately 7.5 m resolution over a distance of 500 m. Average snow densities are about 300 kg/m3, but the analysis also reveals a high spatial variability in snow density on sea ice in both horizontal and vertical direction, ranging from roughly 180 to 360 kg/m3. This variability is expressed by coherent snow structures over several meters. On the first cruise, the measurements were accompanied by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) on an area of 50x50 m2. The comparison with the TLS data indicates that the spatial variability is exhibiting similar spatial patterns as deviations in surface topology. This suggests a strong influence from surface processes, for example wind, on the temporal development of density or grain size profiles. The fundamental relationship between variations in snow properties, surface roughness and changes therein as investigated in this study is interpreted with respect to large-scale ice movement and the mass balance.

Phenology of lilac (Syringa vulgaris) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra) as the indicator of spring warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincze, E.; Hunkár, M.; Dunkel, Z.

2012-04-01

Phenological observations in Hungary started in 1871. The observation system collapsed and revived time by time. The aim of the observations as well as the locations, the methods and observed plants have been changed many times, therefore data series for a given plant species derived from the same place are rare. If we want to study the responses of biosphere to climate variability we need long time data series from the same places, especially phenological data of native plants. Phenological observations organized by the Hungarian Meteorological Service between 1983- 1999 contain valuable data for lilac (Syringa vulgaris) and elderberry (Sambucus nigra). Those perennial native plants are good indicators of spring warming therefore it is worth to study their phenological development concerning to climate variability. Eight locations in Hungary were selected where the site of the observations remaind the same year by year. Observed phenological phases were: Sprouting of leaves (SL, BBCH:11); Begin of Flowers (BF, BBCH:61); Fall of leaves (FO, BBCH:95). Spatial and temporal trends and variability of phenophases will be presented. The effect of meteorological conditions is studied to build up phenological model controlled by the temperature. Growing degree days above the base temperature was involved together with the duration and severeness of the chilling period. The study is supported by the National Scientific Foundation (OTKA-81979).

Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Mozo, H.; Orlandi, F.; Galan, C.; Fornaciari, M.; Romano, B.; Ruiz, L.; Diaz de La Guardia, C.; Trigo, M. M.; Chuine, I.

2009-03-01

Phenology data are sensitive data to identify how plants are adapted to local climate and how they respond to climatic changes. Modeling flowering phenology allows us to identify the meteorological variables determining the reproductive cycle. Phenology of temperate of woody plants is assumed to be locally adapted to climate. Nevertheless, recent research shows that local adaptation may not be an important constraint in predicting phenological responses. We analyzed variations in flowering dates of Olea europaea L. at different sites of Spain and Italy, testing for a genetic differentiation of flowering phenology among olive varieties to estimate whether local modeling is necessary for olive or not. We build models for the onset and peak dates flowering in different sites of Andalusia and Puglia. Process-based phenological models using temperature as input variable and photoperiod as the threshold date to start temperature accumulation were developed to predict both dates. Our results confirm and update previous results that indicated an advance in olive onset dates. The results indicate that both internal and external validity were higher in the models that used the photoperiod as an indicator to start to cumulate temperature. The use of the unified model for modeling the start and peak dates in the different localities provides standardized results for the comparative study. The use of regional models grouping localities by varieties and climate similarities indicate that local adaptation would not be an important factor in predicting olive phenological responses face to the global temperature increase.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

PubMed Central

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Rob A.; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-01-01

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies. PMID:28233791

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

PubMed

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D; Massom, Rob A; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-02-24

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

Phenology of the McMurdo Sound Spring Bloom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, K. L.; Kim, S.; Broadbent, H.; Saenz, B.; Ainley, D. G.; Ballard, G.; Pitman, R.; DiTullio, G. R.

2016-02-01

The phenology of spring blooms in most cases has important consequences for the food web that supports upper trophic level predators. An investigation during spring/summer of 2012/13 and 2014/15 of the McMurdo Sound ecosystem, at the southern end of the Ross Sea, revealed that maximum concentrations of fast ice algae occurred during November, with higher concentrations on the eastern side of the Sound near Ross Island and lower concentrations on the western side in the cold water outflow from under the Ross Ice Shelf. In early to mid-December, warming surface water ablated the undersurface of the fast ice and ice algae likely sank rapidly out of the water column to provide food for the benthos. Also in early to mid-December, the McMurdo system transitioned to a phytoplankton bloom at the fast ice edge and under the ice, which co-occurred with the timing of Adelie penguin reproduction (chick hatching) at Cape Royds and the arrival of minke whales and fish-eating killer whales at the fast ice edge. The phytoplankton bloom was initially advected from the Ross Sea into the eastern side of McMurdo Sound and then spread across the Sound to the western side. The phytoplankton community, which was dominated by diatoms and Phaeocystis, was not grazed down by zooplankton and appeared to sink out of the water column. Results support recent findings that a wasp-waist food web structure exists in the Ross Sea, whereby upper trophic levels are not closely coupled to phytoplankton dynamics.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

PubMed

Thackeray, Stephen J; Henrys, Peter A; Hemming, Deborah; Bell, James R; Botham, Marc S; Burthe, Sarah; Helaouet, Pierre; Johns, David G; Jones, Ian D; Leech, David I; Mackay, Eleanor B; Massimino, Dario; Atkinson, Sian; Bacon, Philip J; Brereton, Tom M; Carvalho, Laurence; Clutton-Brock, Tim H; Duck, Callan; Edwards, Martin; Elliott, J Malcolm; Hall, Stephen J G; Harrington, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Høye, Toke T; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Pemberton, Josephine M; Sparks, Tim H; Thompson, Paul M; White, Ian; Winfield, Ian J; Wanless, Sarah

2016-07-14

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

PubMed Central

Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.

2015-01-01

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2015-07-13

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Spatially detailed retrievals of spring phenology from single-season high-resolution image time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrieling, Anton; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Wang, Tiejun; Meroni, Michele; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; O'Connor, Brian; Darvishzadeh, Roshanak; Heurich, Marco; Shepherd, Anita; Paganini, Marc

2017-07-01

Vegetation indices derived from satellite image time series have been extensively used to estimate the timing of phenological events like season onset. Medium spatial resolution (≥250 m) satellite sensors with daily revisit capability are typically employed for this purpose. In recent years, phenology is being retrieved at higher resolution (≤30 m) in response to increasing availability of high-resolution satellite data. To overcome the reduced acquisition frequency of such data, previous attempts involved fusion between high- and medium-resolution data, or combinations of multi-year acquisitions in a single phenological reconstruction. The objectives of this study are to demonstrate that phenological parameters can now be retrieved from single-season high-resolution time series, and to compare these retrievals against those derived from multi-year high-resolution and single-season medium-resolution satellite data. The study focuses on the island of Schiermonnikoog, the Netherlands, which comprises a highly-dynamic saltmarsh, dune vegetation, and agricultural land. Combining NDVI series derived from atmospherically-corrected images from RapidEye (5 m-resolution) and the SPOT5 Take5 experiment (10m-resolution) acquired between March and August 2015, phenological parameters were estimated using a function fitting approach. We then compared results with phenology retrieved from four years of 30 m Landsat 8 OLI data, and single-year 100 m Proba-V and 250 m MODIS temporal composites of the same period. Retrieved phenological parameters from combined RapidEye/SPOT5 displayed spatially consistent results and a large spatial variability, providing complementary information to existing vegetation community maps. Retrievals that combined four years of Landsat observations into a single synthetic year were affected by the inclusion of years with warmer spring temperatures, whereas adjustment of the average phenology to 2015 observations was only feasible for a few pixels

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Surface Energy Fluxes During Autumn Ice Advance: Observations and Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Grachev, A. A.; Guest, P. S.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Capotondi, A.; Fairall, C. W.; Intrieri, J. M.

2016-12-01

From Oct 4 to Nov 5, 2015, the Office of Naval Research - sponsored Sea State cruise in the Beaufort Sea with the new National Science Foundation R/V Sikuliaq obtained extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations of the lower troposphere, the advancing sea ice, wave state, and upper ocean conditions. In addition, a coupled atmosphere, sea ice, upper-ocean model, based on the RASM model, was run at NOAA/PSD in a hindcast mode for this same time period, providing a 10-day simulation of the atmosphere/ice/ocean evolution. Surface energy fluxes quantitatively represent the air-ice, air-ocean, and ice-ocean interaction processes, determining the cooling (warming) rate of the upper ocean and the growth (melting) rate of sea ice. These fluxes also impact the stratification of the lower troposphere and the upper ocean. In this presentation, both direct and indirect measurements of the energy fluxes during Sea State will be used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of these fluxes and the impacts of this variability on the upper ocean, ice, and lower atmosphere during the autumn ice advance. Analyses have suggested that these fluxes are impacted by atmospheric synoptic evolution, proximity to existing ice, ice-relative wind direction, ice thickness and snow depth. In turn, these fluxes impact upper-ocean heat loss and timing of ice formation, as well as stability in the lower troposphere and upper ocean, and hence heat transport to the free troposphere and ocean mixed-layer. Therefore, the atmospheric structure over the advancing first-year ice differs from that over the nearby open water. Finally, these observational analyses will be used to provide a preliminary validation of the spatial and temporal variability of the surface energy fluxes and the associated lower-tropospheric and upper-ocean structures in the simulations.

Interannual Variability of Water Ice Clouds at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, G.; Giuranna, M.; McConnochie, T. H.; Tamppari, L.; Smith, M. D.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Renno, N. O.; Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Guzewich, S.

2017-12-01

The Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) is a water ice cloud band that encircles the planet longitudinally at latitudes ranging from about 10°S to 30°N during the northern spring and summer (aphelion season). The ACB has been studied extensively using satellite observations over the last two decades [1], showing little interannual variability from MY 24 to 34. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission has completed more than 1750 sols of measurements at Gale crater (4.5°S), from Ls 155° in MY 31 to Ls 33° in MY 34. Interestingly, MSL results from various instruments indicate that the ACB produces significant interannual variability at Gale crater during the aphelion season. In particular, near-noon retrievals of water ice opacity by the ChemCam instrument indicate an increase in water ice opacity up to 50% from MY 32 to 33 [2], further supported by analysis of UV [3] and ground temperature [4] data taken by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station during MY 32 and 33. A weaker ( 5%) increase in water ice opacity in MY 33 relative to MY 32 was also observed from images taken during afternoon hours by the rover's Navigation Cameras [5]. We are analyzing simultaneous and noncontemporary satellite observations at the location of Gale made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer [6], Mars Climate Sounder, Thermal Emission Imaging System and Thermal Emission Spectrometer to shed light on the nature of the interannual variability of the ACB at Gale, and to locally understand the relation between the ACB and the water cycle. References:[1] Smith, M.D. (2008), Spacecraft observations of the martian atmosphere, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36. [2] McConnochie, T. H., et al. (2017), Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy, Icarus (submitted). [3] Vicente-Retortillo, Á., et al. (2017), Determination of dust aerosol particle size at Gale Crater using REMS UVS and Mastcam measurements, GRL, 44. [4] Vasavada, A.R. et al

An Ice Core Perspective on Aleutian Low Variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S.; Introne, D.

2016-12-01

The Aleutian Low (ALow) is the dominant feature of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific, strongly influencing wintertime temperature, precipitation and wind patterns in Alaska and the Yukon Territory, as well as further downstream in North America via atmospheric teleconnections. Changes in ALow strength are known to impact marine ecosystems by contributing to the multi-decadal sea-surface temperature mode in the North Pacific known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Meteorological records show that in addition to distinct PDO-like variability, the ALow has intensified over the 20th century. However, ALow variability prior to the instrumental period remains unclear due to generally poor correlations among published ALow and PDO reconstructions, including the Mt. Logan ice core ALow record. An improved understanding of past ALow variability is critical for evaluating natural ALow forcing mechanisms, placing the 20th century intensification in context, and improving ALow projections under increased anthropogenic forcing. Here we combine ALow-sensitive time series from the new Denali ice core and the Mt. Logan ice core to develop a high-resolution (1-3 year) multi-ice-core record of ALow variability over the past 1500 years. The Denali ice core was collected from the summit plateau (3900 m) of Mt. Hunter in 2013, and was sampled using the Dartmouth continuous melter system with discrete sampling for major ion (IC), trace element (ICP-MS), and stable isotope ratios (Picarro), as well as continuous flow analyses for dust size and concentration (Klotz Abakus). We focus here on the sea-salt sodium time series, and calibrate our record over the 20th century with reanalysis wind speed and pressure data. The Denali sodium record of ALow strength strongly resembles the Mt. Logan ALow record, with both showing a recent intensification of the ALow that started in the late 1600s and continues into the 20th century. Both records reveal that the ALow was stronger

Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-08-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.