Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salim, Michael A.; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So, E-mail: sohirata@illinois.edu

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D{sub 2}O ice greater than that of H{sub 2}O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials ismore » taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly

Antarctic Ice Shelf Loss Comes From Underneath

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Calving front of an ice shelf in West Antarctica. The traditional view on ice shelves, the floating extensions of seaward glaciers, has been that they mostly lose ice by shedding icebergs. A new study by NASA and university researchers has found that warm ocean waters melting the ice sheets from underneath account for 55 percent of all ice shelf mass loss in Antarctica. This image was taken during the 2012 Antarctic campaign of NASA's Operation IceBridge, a mission that provided data for the new ice shelf study. Read more: www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20130613.html Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jefferson Beck NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Ancient Yedoma carbon loss: primed by ice wedge thaw?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowdy, K. L.; Vonk, J. E.; Mann, P. J.; Zimov, N.; Bulygina, E. B.; Davydova, A.; Spencer, R. G.; Holmes, R. M.

2012-12-01

Northeast Siberian permafrost is dominated by frozen Yedoma deposits containing ca. 500 Gt of carbon, nearly a quarter of northern permafrost organic carbon (OC). Yedoma deposits are Pleistocene-age alluvial and/or aeolian accumulations characterized by high ice wedge content (~50%), making them particularly vulnerable to a warming climate and to surface collapse upon thaw. Dissolved OC in streams originating primarily from Yedoma has been shown to be highly biolabile, relative to waters containing more modern OC. The cause of this biolability, however, remains speculative. Here we investigate the influence of ice wedge input upon the bioavailability of Yedoma within streams from as a potential cause of Yedoma carbon biolability upon release into the Kolyma River from the thaw-eroding river exposures of Duvannyi Yar, NE Siberia. We measured biolability on (1) ice wedge, Kolyma, and Yedoma leachate controls; (2) ice wedge and Kolyma plus Yedoma OC (8 g/L); and (3) varying ratios of ice wedge water to Kolyma river water. Biolability assays were conducted using both 5-day BOD (biological oxygen demand) and 11-day BDOC (biodegradable dissolved organic carbon) incubations. We found that ancient DOC in Yedoma soil leachate alone was highly biolabile with losses of 52±0.1% C over a 5-day BOD incubation. Similarly, DOC contained in pure ice wedge water was found to be biolabile, losing 21±0% C during a 5-day BOD incubation. Increased ice wedge contributions led to higher overall C losses in identical Yedoma soil leachates, with 8.9±0.6% losses of Yedoma C with 100% ice wedge water, 7.1±1% (50% ice wedge/ 50% Kolyma) and 5±0.3% with 100% Kolyma River water. We discuss potential mechanisms for the increased loss of ancient C using associated measurements of nutrient availability, carbon quality (CDOM/FDOM) and extracellular enzyme activity rates. Our initial results indicate that ice wedge meltwater forming Yedoma streams makes Yedoma OC more bioavailable than it would

Antarctic sea ice losses drive gains in benthic carbon drawdown.

PubMed

Barnes, D K A

2015-09-21

Climate forcing of sea-ice losses from the Arctic and West Antarctic are blueing the poles. These losses are accelerating, reducing Earth's albedo and increasing heat absorption. Subarctic forest (area expansion and increased growth) and ice-shelf losses (resulting in new phytoplankton blooms which are eaten by benthos) are the only significant described negative feedbacks acting to counteract the effects of increasing CO2 on a warming planet, together accounting for uptake of ∼10(7) tonnes of carbon per year. Most sea-ice loss to date has occurred over polar continental shelves, which are richly, but patchily, colonised by benthic animals. Most polar benthos feeds on microscopic algae (phytoplankton), which has shown increased blooms coincident with sea-ice losses. Here, growth responses of Antarctic shelf benthos to sea-ice losses and phytoplankton increases were investigated. Analysis of two decades of benthic collections showed strong increases in annual production of shelf seabed carbon in West Antarctic bryozoans. These were calculated to have nearly doubled to >2x10(5) tonnes of carbon per year since the 1980s. Annual production of bryozoans is median within wider Antarctic benthos, so upscaling to include other benthos (combined study species typically constitute ∼3% benthic biomass) suggests an increased drawdown of ∼2.9x10(6) tonnes of carbon per year. This drawdown could become sequestration because polar continental shelves are typically deeper than most modern iceberg scouring, bacterial breakdown rates are slow, and benthos is easily buried. To date, most sea-ice losses have been Arctic, so, if hyperboreal benthos shows a similar increase in drawdown, polar continental shelves would represent Earth's largest negative feedback to climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Volume 2010-2013 from CryoSat-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilling, R.; Ridout, A.; Wingham, D.; Shepherd, A.; Haas, C.; Farrell, S. L.; Schweiger, A. J.; Zhang, J.; Giles, K.; Laxon, S.

2013-12-01

Satellite records show a decline in Arctic sea ice extent over the past three decades with a record minimum in September 2012, and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) suggest that this has been accompanied by a reduction in volume. We use three years of measurements recorded by the European Space Agency CryoSat-2 (CS-2) mission, validated with in situ data, to generate estimates of seasonal variations and inter-annual trends in Arctic sea ice volume between 2010 and 2013. The CS-2 estimates of sea ice thickness agree with in situ estimates derived from upward looking sonar measurements of ice draught and airborne measurements of ice thickness and freeboard to within 0.1 metres. Prior to the record minimum in summer 2012, autumn and winter Arctic sea ice volume had fallen by ~1300 km3 relative to the previous year. Using the full 3-year period of CS-2 observations, we estimate that winter Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by ~700 km3/yr since 2010, approximately twice the average rate since 1980 as predicted by the PIOMAS.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-11-11

Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO 2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO 2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Summer 2007 and 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Context: OUTLOOK 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Eicken, H.; Wiggins, H. V.

2008-12-01

The Arctic is changing faster than the publication cycle for new information. In response, the SEARCH and DAMOCLES Programs initiated an OUTLOOK 2008 to provide broad-based communication and assessment within the arctic science community on the causes of rapid summer sea ice loss, synthesizing information from Arctic observing networks and model simulations. The question for summer 2008 was whether the previous loss of multi-year sea ice and delay in sea ice formation in autumn 2007 would still allow sufficient winter growth of sea ice thickness to last through the summer 2008, potentially allowing for recovery from the 2007 minimum. The answer is no; summer 2008 was a second sequential year of extremely low minimum sea ice extent. To organize OUTLOOK 2008, respondents were asked in May, June and July to provide a rationale and semi-quantitative assessment of arctic sea ice extent anticipated for September 2008. OUTLOOK 2008 supplemented information maintained by ice centers, universities and other data providers. Using a range of methods, all of the approximately 20 groups responded that summer sea ice would not return to climatological mean conditions, with a median response near the 2007 extent. The range of responses depended on the relative weight given to "initial conditions," e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 would be as supportive for ice loss as in 2007. Initial conditions turned out to be a primary factor for summer 2008, with implications for continued sea ice loss in future years. OUTLOOK 2008 highlighted aspects of the observation and modeling efforts that require further attention such as interpretation of summer microwave signatures, in situ buoy measurements, and data assimilation in models. We appreciate the contributions from respondents and reviewers who made OUTLOOK 2008 a success.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

A glimpse beneath Antarctic sea ice: observation of platelet-layer thickness and ice-volume fraction with multi-frequency EM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks, S.; Hoppmann, M.; Hunkeler, P. A.; Kalscheuer, T.; Gerdes, R.

2015-12-01

In Antarctica, ice crystals (platelets) form and grow in supercooled waters below ice shelves. These platelets rise and accumulate beneath nearby sea ice to form a several meter thick sub-ice platelet layer. This special ice type is a unique habitat, influences sea-ice mass and energy balance, and its volume can be interpreted as an indicator for ice - ocean interactions. Although progress has been made in determining and understanding its spatio-temporal variability based on point measurements, an investigation of this phenomenon on a larger scale remains a challenge due to logistical constraints and a lack of suitable methodology. In the present study, we applied a lateral constrained Marquardt-Levenberg inversion to a unique multi-frequency electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding dataset obtained on the ice-shelf influenced fast-ice regime of Atka Bay, eastern Weddell Sea. We adapted the inversion algorithm to incorporate a sensor specific signal bias, and confirmed the reliability of the algorithm by performing a sensitivity study using synthetic data. We inverted the field data for sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness and electrical conductivity, and calculated ice-volume fractions from platelet-layer conductivities using Archie's Law. The thickness results agreed well with drill-hole validation datasets within the uncertainty range, and the ice-volume fraction also yielded plausible results. Our findings imply that multi-frequency EM induction sounding is a suitable approach to efficiently map sea-ice and platelet-layer properties. However, we emphasize that the successful application of this technique requires a break with traditional EM sensor calibration strategies due to the need of absolute calibration with respect to a physical forward model.

The evolution of pCO2, ice volume and climate during the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Gavin L.; Lear, Caroline H.; Rae, James W. B.

2012-08-01

The middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (17-15 Ma; MCO) is a period of global warmth and relatively high CO2 and is thought to be associated with a significant retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). We present here a new planktic foraminiferal δ11B record from 16.6 to 11.8 Ma from two deep ocean sites currently in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. These new data demonstrate that the evolution of global climate during the middle Miocene (as reflected by changes in the cyrosphere) was well correlated to variations in the concentration of atmospheric CO2. What is more, within our sampling resolution (∼1 sample per 300 kyr) there is no evidence of hysteresis in the response of ice volume to CO2 forcing during the middle Miocene, contrary to what is understood about the Antarctic Ice Sheet from ice sheet modelling studies. In agreement with previous data, we show that absolute levels of CO2 during the MCO were relatively modest (350-400 ppm) and levels either side of the MCO are similar or lower than the pre-industrial (200-260 ppm). These new data imply the presence of either a very dynamic AIS at relatively low CO2 during the middle Miocene or the advance and retreat of significant northern hemisphere ice. Recent drilling on the Antarctic margin and shore based studies indicate significant retreat and advance beyond the modern limits of the AIS did occur during the middle Miocene, but the complete loss of the AIS was unlikely. Consequently, it seems that ice volume and climate variations during the middle Miocene probably involved a more dynamic AIS than the modern but also some component of land-based ice in the northern hemisphere.

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki

2014-09-02

Successive cold winters of severely low temperatures in recent years have had critical social and economic impacts on the mid-latitude continents in the Northern Hemisphere. Although these cold winters are thought to be partly driven by dramatic losses of Arctic sea ice, the mechanism that links sea ice loss to cold winters remains a subject of debate. Here, by conducting observational analyses and model experiments, we show how Arctic sea ice loss and cold winters in extra-polar regions are dynamically connected through the polar stratosphere. We find that decreased sea ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over themore » Barents-Kara seas, enhance the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January- February). The weakened polar vortex preferentially induces a negative phase of Arctic Oscillation at the surface, resulting in low temperatures in mid-latitudes.« less

Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2015-04-01

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica's mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003-2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of - 121 ± 8 Gt /yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of - 18 ± 5 Gt /yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica's loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at - 92 ± 10 Gt /yr.

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

Arctic spring ozone reduction associated with projected sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, C.; Sun, L.; Tomas, R. A.; Polvani, L. M.

2013-12-01

The impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), by prescribing the sea ice in the late 20th century and late 21st century, respectively. The localized Sea Surface Temperature (SST) change associated with sea ice melt is also included in the future run. Overall, the model simulates a negative annular-mode response in the winter and spring. In the stratosphere, polar vortex strengthens from February to April, peaking in March. Consistent with it, there is an anomalous cooling in the high-latitude stratosphere, and polar cap ozone reduction is up to 20 DU. Since the difference between these two runs lies only in the sea ice and localized SST in the Arctic, the stratospheric circulation and ozone changes can be attributed to the surface forcing. Eliassen-Palm analysis reveals that the upward propagation of planetary waves is suppressed in the spring as a consequence of sea ice loss. The reduction in propagation causes less wave dissipation and thus less zonal wind deceleration in the extratropical stratosphere.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice.

PubMed

Eisenman, I; Wettlaufer, J S

2009-01-06

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely.

Microwave signatures of snow, ice and soil at several wavelengths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gloersen, P.; Schmugge, T. J.; Chang, T. C.

1974-01-01

Analyses of data obtained from aircraft-borne radiometers have shown that the microwave signatures of various parts of the terrain depend on both the volume scattering cross-section and the dielectric loss in the medium. In soil, it has been found that experimental data fit a model in which the scattering cross section is negligible compared to the dielectric loss. On the other hand, the volume scattering cross-section in snow and continental ice was found, from analyzing data obtained with aircraft- and spacecraft-borne radiometers, to be more important than the dielectric loss or surface reflectivity in determining the observed microwave emissivity. A model which assumes Mie scattering of ice particles of various sizes was found to be the dominant volume scattering mechanism in these media. Both spectral variation in the microwave signatures of snow and ice fields, as well as the variation in the emissivity of continental ice sheets such as those covering Greenland and Antarctica appear to be consistent with this model.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence.

PubMed

Amstrup, Steven C; Deweaver, Eric T; Douglas, David C; Marcot, Bruce G; Durner, George M; Bitz, Cecilia M; Bailey, David A

2010-12-16

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amstrup, Steven C.; Deweaver, E.T.; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, B.G.; Durner, George M.; Bitz, C.M.; Bailey, D.A.

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the worlds polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Snow and ice volume on Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska, 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.; Mayo, Lawrence R.; Trabant, Dennis C.

1997-01-01

Mount Spurr (3,374 meters altitude) is an active volcano 130 kilometers west of Anchorage, Alaska, with an extensive covering of seasonal and perennial snow, and glaciers. Knowledge of the volume and distribution of snow and ice on a volcano aids in assessing hydrologic hazards such as floods, mudflows, and debris flows. In July 1981, ice thickness was measured at 68 locations on the five main glaciers of Mount Spurr: 64 of these measurements were made using a portable 1.7 megahertz monopulse ice-radar system, and 4 measurements were made using the helicopter altimeter where the glacier bed was exposed by ice avalanching. The distribution of snow and ice derived from these measurements is depicted on contour maps and in tables compiled by altitude and by drainage basins. Basal shear stresses at 20 percent of the measured locations ranged from 200 to 350 kilopascals, which is significantly higher than the 50 to 150 kilopascals commonly referred to in the literature as the 'normal' range for glaciers. Basal shear stresses higher than 'normal' have also been found on steep glaciers on volcanoes in the Cascade Range in the western United States. The area of perennial snow and ice coverage on Mount Spurr was 360 square kilometers in 1981, with an average thickness of 190?50 meters. Seasonal snow increases the volume about 1 percent and increases the area about 30 percent with a maximum in May or June. Runoff from Mount Spurr feeds the Chakachatna River and the Chichantna River (a tributary of the Beluga River). The Chakachatna River drainage contains 14 cubic kilometers of snow and ice and the Chichantna River drainage contains 53 cubic kilometers. The snow and ice volume on the mountain was 67?17 cubic kilometers, approximately 350 times more snow and ice than was on Mount St. Helens before its May 18, 1980, eruption, and 15 times more snow and ice than on Mount Rainier, the most glacierized of the measured volcanoes in the Cascade Range. On the basis of these relative

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

Whole-edifice ice volume change A.D. 1970 to 2007/2008 at Mount Rainier, Washington, based on LiDAR surveying

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sisson, T.W.; Robinson, J.E.; Swinney, D.D.

2011-01-01

Net changes in thickness and volume of glacial ice and perennial snow at Mount Rainier, Washington State, have been mapped over the entire edifice by differencing between a highresolution LiDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic survey of September-October 2007/2008 and the 10 m lateral resolution U.S. Geological Survey digital elevation model derived from September 1970 aerial photography. Excepting the large Emmons and Winthrop Glaciers, all of Mount Rainier's glaciers thinned and retreated in their terminal regions, with substantial thinning mainly at elevations <2000 m and the greatest thinning on southfacing glaciers. Mount Rainier's glaciers and snowfields also lost volume over the interval, excepting the east-flank Fryingpan and Emmons Glaciers and minor near-summit snowfields; maximum volume losses were centered from ~1750 m (north flank) to ~2250 m (south fl ank) elevation. The greatest single volume loss was from the Carbon Glacier, despite its northward aspect, due to its sizeable area at <2000 m elevation. Overall, Mount Rainier lost ~14 vol% glacial ice and perennial snow over the 37 to 38 yr interval between surveys. Enhanced thinning of south-flank glaciers may be meltback from the high snowfall period of the mid-1940s to mid-1970s associated with the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound

Quantifying Glacier Volume Change Using UAV-Derived Imagery and Structure from Motion Photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, C. R.; La Frenierre, J.

2017-12-01

Glaciers in the Tropical Andes, like those worldwide, are experiencing rapid ice volume loss due to climate change. Tropical areas are of significant interest in glacier studies because they are especially sensitive to climate change. Quantifying the rate of ice volume loss is important given their sensitivity to climate change and the importance of glacier meltwater for downstream human use. Past studies have found shrinking ice surfaces areas, but finding the actual rate of volume loss gives more information about how glaciers are reacting to climate change as well as the direct hydrological effects of ice volume loss. In this study we determined the rate of ice volume loss for a debris covered section of the Reschreiter Glacier and a portion of the clean ice tongue of the Hans Meyer Glacier on Volcán Chimborazo in Ecuador. Traditional geodetic approaches of measuring ice volume change, including the use of satellite-derived digital elevation models and airborne LIDAR, are difficult in this case due to the small size of Chimborazo's glaciers, frequently cloudy conditions, and limited local resources. Instead, we obtained imagery with an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and processed this imagery using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. Our results are used to evaluate the role of elevation and debris cover as Chimborazo's glaciers respond to climate change.

Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice

PubMed Central

Eisenman, I.; Wettlaufer, J. S.

2009-01-01

In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. PMID:19109440

Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e<0.015), the effect of precession is minimal, and the integrated insolation metrics (such as summer metric, PDD, etc.) vary in-phase between the two hemispheres. At higher eccentricities (e>0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

Replicating the Ice-Volume Signal of the Early Pleistocene with a Complex Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C. R.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2013-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes high-latitude summer insolation intensity paces the ice ages by controlling perennial snow cover amounts (Milankovitch, 1941). According to theory, the ~21 kyr cycle of precession should dominate the ice-volume records since it has the greatest influence on high-latitude summer insolation. Modeling experiments frequently support Milankovitch theory by attributing the majority of Northern Hemisphere high-latitude summer snowmelt to changes in the cycle of precession (e.g. Jackson and Broccoli, 2003). However, ice-volume proxy records, especially those of the Early Pleistocene (2.6-0.8 Ma), display variability with a period of ~41 kyr (Raymo and Lisiecki, 2005), indicative of insolation forcing from obliquity, which has a much smaller influence on summer insolation intensity than precession. Several hypotheses attempt to explain the discrepancies between Milkankovitch theory and the proxy records by invoking phenomena such as insolation gradients (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003), hemispheric offset (Raymo et al., 2006; Lee and Poulsen, 2009), and integrated summer energy (Huybers, 2006); however, all of these hypotheses contain caveats (Ruddiman, 2006) and have yet to be supported by modeling studies that use a complex GCM. To explore potential solutions to this '41 kyr problem,' we use an Earth system model composed of the GENESIS GCM and Land Surface model, the BIOME4 vegetation model, and the Pennsylvania State ice-sheet model. Using an asynchronous coupling technique, we run four idealized transient combinations of obliquity and precession, representing the orbital extremes of the Pleistocene (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Each experiment is run through several complete orbital cycles with a dynamic ice domain spanning North America and Greenland, and fixed preindustrial greenhouse-gas concentrations. For all orbital configurations, model results produce greater ice-volume spectral power at the frequency of obliquity despite significantly

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Jes

2009-01-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

Permafrost - Relation between ice content and dielectric losses at 100 K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, R.

1973-01-01

The dielectric response of permafrost at 100 K and vacuums of around 10 ntorr is analyzed, varying its percent ice content from 1 to 18.6. The distributions obtained correspond to dielectric relaxations of the Cole-Cole type, with maximum losses occurring in the 30- to 600-Hz frequency range. The logarithms of such maxima depend linearly on the permafrost ice content, two regions of linear variation being defined above and below 3.6% ice content. Such relations point out the feasibility of determining ice content in permafrost by electromagnetic means.

The Broken Belt: Meteorite Concentrations on Stranded Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, R. P.

2003-01-01

Since the first Antarctic meteorite concentrations were discovered more than 25 years ago, many theories regarding the role of iceflow in the production of meteorite concentrations have been put forward, and most agree on the basic principles. These models suggest that as the East Antarctic icesheet flows toward the margins of the continent, meteorites randomly located within the volume of ice are transported toward the icesheet margin. Where mountains or subsurface obstructions block glacial flow, diversion of ice around or over an obstruction reduces horizontal ice movement rates adjacent to the barriers and creates a vertical (upward) component of movement. If local mechanisms for ice loss (ablation) exist at such sites, an equilibrium surface will develop according to the balance between ice supply and loss, and the cargo of meteorites is exhumed on a blue ice surface. The result is a conceptual conveyor belt bringing meteorite-bearing volumes of ice from the interior of the continent to stagnant or slowmoving surfaces where ice is then lost and a precious cargo is left as a lag deposit. Cassidy et al. provides an excellent overview of how this model has been adapted to several Antarctic stranding surfaces.

Early 21st-Century Mass loss of the North-Atlantic Glaciers and Ice Caps (Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Ligtenberg, Stefan; Moholdt, Geir; Gardner, Alex S.; Noel, Brice; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; van den Broeke, Michiel; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

Historically, ice loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps has been one of the largest contributors to sea level rise over the last century. Of particular interest are the glaciers and ice caps in the North-Atlantic region of the Arctic. Despite the cold climate in this area, considerable melting and runoff occurs in summer. A small increase in temperature will have an immediate effect on these processes, so that a large change in the Arctic ice volume can be expected in response to the anticipated climate change in the coming century. Unfortunately, direct observations of glaciers are sparse and are biased toward glaciers systems in accessible, mostly maritime, climate conditions. Remote sensing is therefore essential to monitor the state of the the North-Atlantic glaciers and ice caps. In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that has been made in estimating the ice mass balance of these regions, with a particular focus on measurements made by ESA's Cryosat-2 radar altimeter mission (2010-present). Compared to earlier altimeter mission, Cryosat-2 provides unprecedented coverage of the cryosphere, with a resolution down to 1 km or better and sampling at monthly intervals. Combining the Cryosat-2 measurements with the laser altimetry data from ICESat (2003-2009) gives us a 12 yr time series of glacial mass loss in the North Atlantic. We find excellent agreement between the altimetry measurements and independent observations by the GRACE mission, which directly 'weighs' the ice caps, albeit at a much lower resolution. Mass loss in the region has increased from 120 Gigatonnes per year in 2003-2009 to roughly 140 Gt/yr in 2010-2014, with an important contribution from Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps. Importantly, the mass loss is not stationary, but shows large regional interannual variability, with mass loss shifting between eastern and western regions from year to year. Comparison with regional climate models shows that these shifts can be

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Arctic sea ice loss and recent extreme cold winter in Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, Masato; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide

2014-05-01

Extreme cold winter over the Eurasia has occurred more frequently in recent years. Observational evidence in recent studies shows that the wintertime cold anomalies over the Eurasia are associated with decline of Arctic sea ice in preceding autumn to winter season. However, the tropical and/or mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have great influence on the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric variability, it is difficult to isolate completely the impacts of sea ice change from observational data. In this study, we examine possible linkage between the Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme cold winter over the Eurasia using a state-of-the-art MIROC4 (T106L56) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to assess the pure atmospheric responses to sea ice reduction. We perform two sets of experiments with different realistic sea ice boundary conditions calculated by composite of observed sea ice concentration; one is reduced sea ice extent case (referred to as LICE run) and another is enhanced case (HICE run). In both experiments, the model is integrated 6-month from September to February with 100-member ensemble under the climatological SST boundary condition. The difference in ensemble mean of each experiment (LICE minus HICE) shows cold anomalies over the Eurasia in winter and its spatial pattern is very similar to corresponding observation, though the magnitude is smaller than observation. This result indicates that a part of observed cold anomaly can be attributed to the Arctic sea ice loss. We would like to introduce more important results and mechanisms in detail in my presentation.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, S. G.

2006-12-01

Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of

Mass Balance of the Northern Antarctic Peninsula and its Ongoing Response to Ice Shelf Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scambos, T. A.; Berthier, E.; Haran, T. M.; Shuman, C. A.; Cook, A. J.; Bohlander, J. A.

2012-12-01

An assessment of the most rapidly changing areas of the Antarctic Peninsula (north of 66°S) shows that ice mass loss for the region is dominated by areas affected by eastern-Peninsula ice shelf losses in the past 20 years. Little if any of the mass loss is compensated by increased snowfall in the northwestern or far northern areas. We combined satellite stereo-image DEM differencing and ICESat-derived along-track elevation changes to measure ice mass loss for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 66°S between 2001-2010, focusing on the ICESat-1 period of operation (2003-2009). This mapping includes all ice drainages affected by recent ice shelf loss in the northeastern Peninsula (Prince Gustav, Larsen Inlet, Larsen A, and Larsen B) as well as James Ross Island, Vega Island, Anvers Island, Brabant Island and the adjacent west-flowing glaciers. Polaris Glacier (feeding the Larsen Inlet, which collapsed in 1986) is an exception, and may have stabilized. Our method uses ASTER and SPOT-5 stereo-image DEMs to determine dh/dt for elevations below 800 m; at higher elevations ICESat along-track elevation differencing is used. To adjust along-track path offsets between its 2003-2009 campaigns, we use a recent DEM of the Peninsula to establish and correct for cross-track slope (Cook et al., 2012, doi:10.5194/essdd-5-365-2012; http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0516.html) . We reduce the effect of possible seasonal variations in elevation by using only integer-year repeats of the ICESat tracks for comparison. Mass losses are dominated by the major glaciers that had flowed into the Prince Gustav (Boydell, Sjorgren, Röhss), Larsen A (Edgeworth, Bombardier, Dinsmoor, Drygalski), and Larsen B (Hektoria, Jorum, and Crane) embayments. The pattern of mass loss emphasizes the significant and multi-decadal response to ice shelf loss. Areas with shelf losses occurring 30 to 100s of years ago seem to be relatively stable or losing mass only slowly (western glaciers, northernmost areas). The

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronkainen, Iina; Lehtiranta, Jonni; Lensu, Mikko; Rinne, Eero; Hordoir, Robinson; Haapala, Jari

2017-04-01

Variability of the volume and thickness of sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia In our study, we want to quantify the variability of sea ice volume and thickness in the Bay of Bothnia and to introduce the drivers of the observed variability. There has been similar studies, but only for fast ice. We use various different data sets: in-situ ice thickness data, remote sensing data, model data and ice charts. In-situ data is from the regular monitoring stations in the coastal fast ice zone and from field campaigns. The remote sensing data is helicopter-borne and ship-borne electromagnetic data. The models we use are HELMI and NEMO-Nordic. We analyze the different data sets and compare them to each other to solve the inter-annual variability and to discuss the ratio of level and deformed ice.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeh, N.

1984-01-01

Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.

Jakobshavn Isbrae, Greenland: DEMs, orthophotos, surface velocities, and ice loss derived from photogrammetric re-analysis of July 1985 repeat aerial photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motyka, R.; Fahnestock, M.; Howat, I.; Truffer, M.; Brecher, H.; Luethi, M.

2008-12-01

Jakobshavn Isbrae drains about 7 % of the Greenland Ice Sheet and is the ice sheet's largest outlet glacier. Two sets of high elevation (~13,500 m), high resolution (2 m) aerial photographs of Jakobshavn Isbrae were obtained about two weeks apart during July 1985 (Fastook et al, 1995). These historic photo sets have become increasingly important for documenting and understanding the dynamic state of this outlet stream prior to the rapid retreat and massive ice loss that began in 1998 and continues today. The original photogrammetric analysis of this imagery is summarized in Fastook et al. (1995). They derived a coarse DEM (3 km grid spacing) covering an area of approximately 100 km x 100 km by interpolating several hundred positions determined manually from block-aerial triangulation. We have re-analyzed these photos sets using digital photogrammetry (BAE Socet Set©) and significantly improved DEM quality and resolution (20, 50, and 100 m grids). The DEMs were in turn used to produce high quality orthophoto mosaics. Comparing our 1985 DEM to a DEM we derived from May 2006 NASA ATM measurements showed a total ice volume loss of ~ 105 km3 over the lower drainage area; almost all of this loss has occurred since 1997. Ice stream surface velocities derived from the 1985 orthomosaics showed speeds of 20 m/d on the floating tongue, diminishing to 5 m/d at 50 km further upstream. Velocities have since nearly doubled along the ice stream during its current retreat. Fastook, J.L., H.H. Brecher, and T.J. Hughes, 1995. J.of Glaciol. 11 (137), 161-173.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Ice Slurry Ingestion Leads to a Lower Net Heat Loss during Exercise in the Heat.

PubMed

Morris, Nathan B; Coombs, Geoff; Jay, Ollie

2016-01-01

To compare the reductions in evaporative heat loss from the skin (Esk) to internal heat loss (Hfluid) induced by ice slurry (ICE) ingestion relative to 37 °C fluid and the accompanying body temperature and local thermoeffector responses during exercise in warm, dry conditions (33.5 °C ± 1.4 °C; 23.7% ± 2.6% relative humidity [RH]). Nine men cycled at approximately 55% VO2peak for 75 min and ingested 3.2 mL · kg(-1) aliquots of 37 °C fluid or ICE after 15, 30, and 45 min of exercise. Metabolic heat production (M-W), rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Tsk), whole-body sweat loss (WBSL), local sweat rate (LSR), and skin blood flow (SkBF) were measured throughout. Net heat loss (HLnet) and heat storage (S) were estimated using partitional calorimetry. Relative to the 37 °C trial, M-W was similar (P = 0.81) with ICE ingestion; however, the 200 ± 20 kJ greater Hfluid (P < 0.001) with ICE ingestion was overcompensated by a 381 ± 199-kJ lower Esk (P < 0.001). Net heat loss (HLnet) was consequently 131 ± 120 kJ lower (P = 0.01) and S was greater (P = 0.05) with ICE ingestion compared with 37 °C fluid ingestion. Concurrently, LSR and WBSL were lower by 0.16 ± 0.14 mg · min(-1) · cm(-2) (P < 0.01) and 191 ± 122 g (P < 0.001), respectively, and SkBF tended to be lower (P = 0.06) by 5.4%maxAU ± 13.4%maxAU in the ICE trial. Changes in Tre and Tsk were similar throughout exercise with ICE compared to 37 °C fluid ingestion. Relative to 37 °C, ICE ingestion caused disproportionately greater reductions in Esk relative to Hfluid, resulting in a lower HLnet and greater S. Mechanistically, LSR and possibly SkBF were suppressed independently of Tre or Tsk, reaffirming the concept of human abdominal thermoreception. From a heat balance perspective, recommendations for ICE ingestion during exercise in warm, dry conditions should be reconsidered.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zappa, G.; Pithan, F.; Shepherd, T. G.

2018-01-01

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections.

PubMed

Zappa, G; Pithan, F; Shepherd, T G

2018-01-28

Previous single-model experiments have found that Arctic sea ice loss can influence the atmospheric circulation. To evaluate this process in a multimodel ensemble, a novel methodology is here presented and applied to infer the influence of Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Sea ice influence is estimated by comparing the circulation response in the RCP8.5 scenario against the circulation response to sea surface warming and CO 2 increase inferred from the AMIPFuture and AMIP4xCO2 experiments, where sea ice is unperturbed. Multimodel evidence of the impact of sea ice loss on midlatitude atmospheric circulation is identified in late winter (January-March), when the sea ice-related surface heat flux perturbation is largest. Sea ice loss acts to suppress the projected poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet, to increase surface pressure in northern Siberia, and to lower it in North America. These features are consistent with previous single-model studies, and the present results indicate that they are robust to model formulation.

Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M.

2017-12-01

Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate.

Volume Ice Radiolysis in the Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.; Cooper, Paul D.

2006-01-01

The primary energy flux of charged particle components of the heliospheric and magnetospheric environments of the solar system is primarily carried by highly penetrating energetic particles. Although laboratory experiments on production of organics and oxidants typically only address effects on very thin surface layers, energy deposition occurs on surfaces of icy bodies of the outer solar system to meters in depth. Time scales for significant radiolytic deposition vary from thousands of years at millimeter depths on Europa to billions of years in the meters-deep regolith of Kuiper Belt Objects. Radioisotope decay (e.g., K-40) also contributes to volume radiolysis as the only energy source at much greater depths. Radiolytic oxygen is a potential resource for life within Europa and a partial source of oxygen for Saturn's magnetosphere and Titan's upper atmosphere. Interactions of very high energy cosmic rays with ices at Titan's surface may provide one of the few sources of oxidants in that highly reducing environment. The red colors of low-inclination classical Kuiper Belt Objects at 40-50 AU, and Centaur objects originating from this same population, may arise from volume radiolysis of deep ice layers below more refractory radiation crusts eroded away by surface sputtering and micrometeoroid impacts. A variety of techniques are potentially available to measure volume radiolysis products and have been proposed for study as part of the new Space Physics of Life initiative at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The technique of Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) has been used in medical studies to measure oxidant production in irradiated human tissue for cancer treatment. Other potential techniques include optical absorption spectroscopy and standard wet chemical analysis. These and other potential techniques are briefly reviewed for applicability to problems in solar system ice radiolysis and astrobiology.

Rapid Ice Loss at Vatnajokull,Iceland Since Late 1990s Constrained by Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2012-12-01

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry time series is applied over Vatnajokull, Iceland by using 15 years ERS data. Ice loss at Vatnajokull accelerates since late 1990s especially after 21th century. Clear uplift signal due to ice mass loss is detected. The rebound signal is generally linear and increases a little bit after 2000. The relative annual velocity (GPS station 7485 as reference) is about 12 mm/yr at the ice cap edge, which matches the previous studies using GPS. The standard deviation compared to 11 GPS stations in this area is about 2 mm/yr. A relative-value modeling method ignoring the effect of viscous flow is chosen assuming elastic half space earth. The final ice loss estimation - 83 cm/yr - matches the climatology model with ground observations. Small Baseline Subsets is applied for time series analysis. Orbit error coupling with long wavelength phase trend due to horizontal plate motion is removed based on a second polynomial model. For simplicity, we do not consider atmospheric delay in this area because of no complex topography and small-scale turbulence is eliminated well after long-term average when calculating the annual mean velocity. Some unwrapping error still exits because of low coherence. Other uncertainties can be the basic assumption of ice loss pattern and spatial variation of the elastic parameters. It is the first time we apply InSAR time series for ice mass balance study and provide detailed error and uncertainty analysis. The successful of this application proves InSAR as an option for mass balance study and it is also important for validation of different ice loss estimation techniques.

Aircraft Icing Handbook. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

an airfoil surface. icenhobig - A surface property exhibiting a reduced adhesion to ice; literally, "ice-hating." light icing - The rate of...power, and are a light weight system of reasonable cost. K. ill I-I1 1.I.2 Pneumatic Impulse Ice Protection A Pneumatic Impulse Ice Protection System...should be about 5 to 6 seconds. During moderate icing a 60 second cycle is suggested, while for light icing, longer accretion times of 3 to 4 minutes

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated

PubMed Central

Thompson, L. G.; Brecher, H. H.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Hardy, D. R.; Mark, B. G.

2009-01-01

The dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted global attention. The three remaining ice fields on the plateau and the slopes are both shrinking laterally and rapidly thinning. Summit ice cover (areal extent) decreased ≈1% per year from 1912 to 1953 and ≈2.5% per year from 1989 to 2007. Of the ice cover present in 1912, 85% has disappeared and 26% of that present in 2000 is now gone. From 2000 to 2007 thinning (surface lowering) at the summits of the Northern and Southern Ice Fields was ≈1.9 and ≈5.1 m, respectively, which based on ice thicknesses at the summit drill sites in 2000 represents a thinning of ≈3.6% and ≈24%, respectively. Furtwängler Glacier thinned ≈50% at the drill site between 2000 and 2009. Ice volume changes (2000–2007) calculated for two ice fields reveal that nearly equivalent ice volumes are now being lost to thinning and lateral shrinking. The relative importance of different climatological drivers remains an area of active inquiry, yet several points bear consideration. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is contemporaneous with widespread glacier retreat in mid to low latitudes. The Northern Ice Field has persisted at least 11,700 years and survived a widespread drought ≈4,200 years ago that lasted ≈300 years. We present additional evidence that the combination of processes driving the current shrinking and thinning of Kilimanjaro's ice fields is unique within an 11,700-year perspective. If current climatological conditions are sustained, the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro and on its flanks will likely disappear within several decades. PMID:19884500

Glacier loss on Kilimanjaro continues unabated.

PubMed

Thompson, L G; Brecher, H H; Mosley-Thompson, E; Hardy, D R; Mark, B G

2009-11-24

The dramatic loss of Kilimanjaro's ice cover has attracted global attention. The three remaining ice fields on the plateau and the slopes are both shrinking laterally and rapidly thinning. Summit ice cover (areal extent) decreased approximately 1% per year from 1912 to 1953 and approximately 2.5% per year from 1989 to 2007. Of the ice cover present in 1912, 85% has disappeared and 26% of that present in 2000 is now gone. From 2000 to 2007 thinning (surface lowering) at the summits of the Northern and Southern Ice Fields was approximately 1.9 and approximately 5.1 m, respectively, which based on ice thicknesses at the summit drill sites in 2000 represents a thinning of approximately 3.6% and approximately 24%, respectively. Furtwängler Glacier thinned approximately 50% at the drill site between 2000 and 2009. Ice volume changes (2000-2007) calculated for two ice fields reveal that nearly equivalent ice volumes are now being lost to thinning and lateral shrinking. The relative importance of different climatological drivers remains an area of active inquiry, yet several points bear consideration. Kilimanjaro's ice loss is contemporaneous with widespread glacier retreat in mid to low latitudes. The Northern Ice Field has persisted at least 11,700 years and survived a widespread drought approximately 4,200 years ago that lasted approximately 300 years. We present additional evidence that the combination of processes driving the current shrinking and thinning of Kilimanjaro's ice fields is unique within an 11,700-year perspective. If current climatological conditions are sustained, the ice fields atop Kilimanjaro and on its flanks will likely disappear within several decades.

Determination of Acreage Thermal Protection Foam Loss From Ice and Foam Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carney, Kelly S.; Lawrence, Charles

2015-01-01

A parametric study was conducted to establish Thermal Protection System (TPS) loss from foam and ice impact conditions similar to what might occur on the Space Launch System. This study was based upon the large amount of testing and analysis that was conducted with both ice and foam debris impacts on TPS acreage foam for the Space Shuttle Project External Tank. Test verified material models and modeling techniques that resulted from Space Shuttle related testing were utilized for this parametric study. Parameters varied include projectile mass, impact velocity and impact angle (5 degree and 10 degree impacts). The amount of TPS acreage foam loss as a result of the various impact conditions is presented.

The direct mechanical influence of sea ice state on ice sheet mass loss via iceberg mélange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.

2017-12-01

The interaction between sea ice and land ice has typically been considered as a large-scale exchange of moisture, heat and salinity through the ocean and atmosphere. However, recent observations from marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland indicate that the long-term decline of local sea ice cover has been accompanied by an increase in nearby iceberg calving and associated ice sheet mass loss. Near glacier calving fronts, sea ice binds icebergs together into an aggregate granular material known as iceberg mélange. Studies have hypothesized that mélange may suppress calving by exerting a mechanical buttressing force directly on the glacier terminus. Here, we show explicitly how sea ice thickness and concentration play a critical role in setting the material strength of mélange. To do so, we adapt a discrete element model to simulate mélange as a cohesive granular material. In these simulations, mélange laden with thick, dense, landfast sea ice can produce enough resistance to shut down calving at the terminus. When sea ice thins, mélange weakens, reducing the mechanical force of mélange on the glacier terminus, and increasing the likelihood of calving. We discuss whether longer periods of sea-ice-free conditions in winter may lead to a transition from currently slow calving, predominantly occurring in the summer, to rapid calving, occurring throughout the year. We also discuss the potential role of freshwater discharge in promoting sea ice formation in fjords, potentially strengthening mélange.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

A combined surface/volume scattering retracking algorithm for ice sheet satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Curt H.

1992-01-01

An algorithm that is based upon a combined surface-volume scattering model is developed. It can be used to retrack individual altimeter waveforms over ice sheets. An iterative least-squares procedure is used to fit the combined model to the return waveforms. The retracking algorithm comprises two distinct sections. The first generates initial model parameter estimates from a filtered altimeter waveform. The second uses the initial estimates, the theoretical model, and the waveform data to generate corrected parameter estimates. This retracking algorithm can be used to assess the accuracy of elevations produced from current retracking algorithms when subsurface volume scattering is present. This is extremely important so that repeated altimeter elevation measurements can be used to accurately detect changes in the mass balance of the ice sheets. By analyzing the distribution of the model parameters over large portions of the ice sheet, regional and seasonal variations in the near-surface properties of the snowpack can be quantified.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California's rainfall.

PubMed

Cvijanovic, Ivana; Santer, Benjamin D; Bonfils, Céline; Lucas, Donald D; Chiang, John C H; Zimmerman, Susan

2017-12-05

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

The performance of probiotic fermented sheep milk and ice cream sheep milk in inhibiting enamel mineral loss.

PubMed

Nadelman, P; Frazão, J V; Vieira, T I; Balthazar, C F; Andrade, M M; Alexandria, A K; Cruz, A G; Fonseca-Gonçalves, A; Maia, L C

2017-07-01

The study aimed to evaluate the effects of two different sheep milk-based food matrices - fermented sheep milk and ice cream - with added probiotic bacteria (Lactobacillus casei 431) on dental enamel subjected to an in vitro highly cariogenic challenge. Sixty enamel blocks were selected and randomly allocated into five treatment groups (n=12): conventional fermented sheep milk (CFSM), probiotic fermented sheep milk (PFSM), conventional sheep milk ice cream (CSMIC), probiotic sheep milk ice cream (PSMIC) and control using deionized water. The blocks were subjected to highly cariogenic pH cycling and the products were applied (5min), in a blinded way, once a day to simulate a daily use for 8 consecutive days. A microhardness test was performed before and after the treatment to estimate the percentage of microhardness surface loss (% SML). Scanning electronic microscopy (SEM) was performed to confirm the mineral loss. All groups had lost microhardness after the experiment. However, CFSM and PFSM exhibited the most positive findings when compared to the control in both ice creams. Scanning electron microscopy showed less mineral loss in CFSM and PFSM compared with CSMIC, PSMIC and control after the cariogenic challenge. Overall, fermented milk decreased mineral loss from enamel subjected to a highly cariogenic challenge, regardless of the presence of probiotics in their composition, which had a higher efficacy compared to ice cream. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aircraft Icing Handbook. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

Measurement," Harvard-Mt. Washington Icing Research Report, 1976-1947,L U. S. Air Materiel Command, Tech. Rept. No. 5676, 82. Findeisen , W...34Meteorological-Physical Limitations of Icing on the Atmosphere," NACA TM 885, 1939. 83. Findeisen , W., "Meteorological Commentary on D (air) 1209, Icing...November 1972, pp. 2603-2616. 58. Findeisen , W., "The Thermometric Ice Warning Indicator," (Translation) Project No. M992-B, University of Michigan

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica.

PubMed

Shen, Qiang; Wang, Hansheng; Shum, C K; Jiang, Liming; Hsu, Hou Tse; Dong, Jinglong

2018-03-14

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr -1 ) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

Neogene ice volume and ocean temperatures: Insights from infaunal foraminiferal Mg/Ca paleothermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lear, Caroline H.; Coxall, Helen K.; Foster, Gavin L.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mawbey, Elaine M.; Rosenthal, Yair; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Thomas, Ellen; Wilson, Paul A.

2015-11-01

Antarctic continental-scale glaciation is generally assumed to have initiated at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition, yet its subsequent evolution is poorly constrained. We reconstruct changes in bottom water temperature and global ice volume from 0 to 17 Ma using δ18O in conjunction with Mg/Ca records of the infaunal benthic foraminifer, O. umbonatus from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 806 (equatorial Pacific; ~2500 m). Considering uncertainties in core top calibrations and sensitivity to seawater Mg/Ca (Mg/Ca)sw, we produce a range of Mg/Ca-temperature-Mg/Casw calibrations. Our favored exponential temperature calibration is Mg/Ca = 0.66 ± 0.08 × Mg/Casw0.27±0.06 × e(0.114±0.02 × BWT) and our favored linear temperature calibration is Mg/Ca = (1.21 ± 0.04 + 0.12 ± 0.004 × BWT (bottom water temperature)) × (Mg/Casw-0.003±0.02) (stated errors are 2 s.e.). The equations are obtained by comparing O. umbonatus Mg/Ca for a Paleocene-Eocene section from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 690 (Weddell Sea) to δ18O temperatures, calculated assuming ice-free conditions during this peak warmth period of the Cenozoic. This procedure suggests negligible effect of Mg/Casw on the Mg distribution coefficient (DMg). Application of the new equations to the Site 806 record leads to the suggestion that global ice volume was greater than today after the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~14 Ma). ODP Site 806 bottom waters cooled and freshened as the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient increased, and climate cooled through the Pliocene, prior to the Plio-Pleistocene glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere. The records indicate a decoupling of deep water temperatures and global ice volume, demonstrating the importance of thresholds in the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R.; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E.; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr2.

Surface Mass Balance Contributions to Acceleration of Antarctic Ice Mass Loss during 2003- 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, K. W.; Wilson, C. R.; Scambos, T. A.; Kim, B. M.; Waliser, D. E.; Tian, B.; Kim, B.; Eom, J.

2015-12-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the GRACE mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6±7.2 GTon/yr2. Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2±2.0 GTon/yr2. However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8±5.8 GTon/yr2. Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1±6.5 GTon/yr2.

Loss of sea ice in the Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2009-01-01

The Arctic sea ice cover is in decline. The areal extent of the ice cover has been decreasing for the past few decades at an accelerating rate. Evidence also points to a decrease in sea ice thickness and a reduction in the amount of thicker perennial sea ice. A general global warming trend has made the ice cover more vulnerable to natural fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The observed reduction in Arctic sea ice is a consequence of both thermodynamic and dynamic processes, including such factors as preconditioning of the ice cover, overall warming trends, changes in cloud coverage, shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, increased export of older ice out of the Arctic, advection of ocean heat from the Pacific and North Atlantic, enhanced solar heating of the ocean, and the ice-albedo feedback. The diminishing Arctic sea ice is creating social, political, economic, and ecological challenges.

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polyakov, Igor V.; Pnyushkov, Andrey V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Ashik, Igor M.; Baumann, Till M.; Carmack, Eddy C.; Goszczko, Ilona; Guthrie, John; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Kanzow, Torsten; Krishfield, Richard; Kwok, Ronald; Sundfjord, Arild; Morison, James; Rember, Robert; Yulin, Alexander

2017-04-01

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching “atlantification” of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

Three dimensional numerical prediction of icing related power and energy losses on a wind turbine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagol, Ece

Regions of Canada experience harsh winter conditions that may persist for several months. Consequently, wind turbines located in these regions are exposed to ice accretion and its adverse effects, from loss of power to ceasing to function altogether. Since the weather-related annual energy production loss of a turbine may be as high as 16% of the nominal production for Canada, estimating these losses before the construction of a wind farm is essential for investors. A literature survey shows that most icing prediction methods and codes are developed for aircraft, and, as this information is mostly considered corporate intellectual property, it is not accessible to researchers in other domains. Moreover, aircraft icing is quite different from wind turbine icing. Wind turbines are exposed to icing conditions for much longer periods than aircraft, perhaps for several days in a harsh climate, whereas the maximum length of exposure of an aircraft is about 3-4 hours. In addition, wind turbine blades operate at subsonic speeds, at lower Reynolds numbers than aircraft, and their physical characteristics are different. A few icing codes have been developed for wind turbine icing nevertheless. However, they are either in 2D, which does not consider the 3D characteristics of the flow field, or they focus on simulating each rotation in a time-dependent manner, which is not practical for computing long hours of ice accretion. Our objective in this thesis is to develop a 3D numerical methodology to predict rime ice shape and the power loss of a wind turbine as a function of wind farm icing conditions. In addition, we compute the Annual Energy Production of a sample turbine under both clean and icing conditions. The sample turbine we have selected is the NREL Phase VI experimental wind turbine installed on a wind farm in Sweden, the icing events at which have been recorded and published. The proposed method is based on computing and validating the clean performance of the turbine

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-06-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea ice varying in age from 1 to 116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a~high-resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-02-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea-ice varying in age from 1-116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a high resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

Snow and Ice Control Materials for Texas Roads; VOLUME 1: Literature and Best Practices Review; VOLUME 2: Field Trials and Laboratory Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

This report provides findings from a four-year research study of snow and ice control materials for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. The report is presented in two volumes. Volume 1 is a literature review and best practices r...

Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao; Tomas, Robert A.

2018-05-01

The role of ocean dynamics in the transient adjustment of the coupled climate system to an abrupt loss of Arctic sea ice is investigated using experiments with Community Climate System Model version 4 in two configurations: a thermodynamic slab mixed layer ocean and a full-depth ocean that includes both dynamics and thermodynamics. Ocean dynamics produce a distinct sea surface temperature warming maximum in the eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by an equatorward intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Hadley Circulation. These tropical responses are established within 25 years of ice loss and contrast markedly with the quasi-steady antisymmetric coupled response in the slab-ocean configuration. A heat budget analysis reveals the importance of anomalous vertical advection tied to a monotonic temperature increase below 200 m for the equatorial sea surface temperature warming maximum in the fully coupled model. Ocean dynamics also rapidly modify the midlatitude atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

Recent Ice Loss from the Fleming and Other Glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Casassa, G.; Gogineni, S.; Kanagaratnam, P.; Krabill, W.; Pritchard, H.; Rivera, A.; Thomas, R.; Turner, J.; Vaughan, D.

2005-01-01

Satellite radar interferometry data from 1995 to 2004, and airborne ice thickness data from 2002, reveal that the glaciers flowing into former Wordie Ice Shelf, West Antarctic Peninsula, discharge 6.8 +/- 0.3 km(exp 3)/yr of ice, which is 84 +/- 30 percent larger than a snow accumulation of 3.7 +/- 0.8 km(exp 3)/yr over a 6,300 km(exp 2) drainage basin. Airborne and ICESat laser altimetry elevation data reveal glacier thinning at rates up to 2 m/yr. Fifty km from its ice front, Fleming Glacier flows 50 percent faster than it did in 1974 prior to the main collapse of Wordie Ice Shelf. We conclude that the glaciers accelerated following ice shelf removal, and have been thinning and losing mass to the ocean over the last decade. This and other observations suggest that the mass loss from the northern part of the Peninsula is not negligible at present.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion system's core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

Ice Crystal Icing Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flegel, Ashlie B.

2017-01-01

Ice crystals found at high altitude near convective clouds are known to cause jet engine power-loss events. These events occur due to ice crystals entering a propulsion systems core flowpath and accreting ice resulting in events such as uncommanded loss of thrust (rollback), engine stall, surge, and damage due to ice shedding. As part of a community with a growing need to understand the underlying physics of ice crystal icing, NASA has been performing experimental efforts aimed at providing datasets that can be used to generate models to predict the ice accretion inside current and future engine designs. Fundamental icing physics studies on particle impacts, accretion on a single airfoil, and ice accretions observed during a rollback event inside a full-scale engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory are summarized. Low fidelity code development using the results from the engine tests which identify key parameters for ice accretion risk and the development of high fidelity codes are described. These activities have been conducted internal to NASA and through collaboration efforts with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The details of the research activities and progress made to date in addressing ice crystal icing research challenges are discussed.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 1: Science and Implementation Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The Science and Implementation Plan of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS) is described. The goal of this initiative is the prediction of the future behavior of this ice sheet and an assessment of its potential to collapse, rapidly raising global sea level. The multidisciplinary nature of WAIS reflects the complexity of the polar ice sheet environment. The project builds upon past and current polar studies in many fields and meshes with future programs of both the U.S. and other countries. Important tasks in each discipline are described and a coordinated schedule by which the majority of these tasks can be accomplished in 5 years is presented. The companion report (Volume 2) contains seven discipline review papers on the state of knowledge of Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to attain the WAIS goal.

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.

2015-07-01

Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWeaver, Eric T.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Tremblay, L.-Bruno

This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include • An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; • A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; • A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; • Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; • A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a

Surface mass balance contributions to acceleration of Antarctic ice mass loss during 2003-2013.

PubMed

Seo, Ki-Weon; Wilson, Clark R; Scambos, Ted; Kim, Baek-Min; Waliser, Duane E; Tian, Baijun; Kim, Byeong-Hoon; Eom, Jooyoung

2015-05-01

Recent observations from satellite gravimetry (the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission) suggest an acceleration of ice mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). The contribution of surface mass balance changes (due to variable precipitation) is compared with GRACE-derived mass loss acceleration by assessing the estimated contribution of snow mass from meteorological reanalysis data. We find that over much of the continent, the acceleration can be explained by precipitation anomalies. However, on the Antarctic Peninsula and other parts of West Antarctica, mass changes are not explained by precipitation and are likely associated with ice discharge rate increases. The total apparent GRACE acceleration over all of the AIS between 2003 and 2013 is -13.6 ± 7.2 Gt/yr 2 . Of this total, we find that the surface mass balance component is -8.2 ± 2.0 Gt/yr 2 . However, the GRACE estimate appears to contain errors arising from the atmospheric pressure fields used to remove air mass effects. The estimated acceleration error from this effect is about 9.8 ± 5.8 Gt/yr 2 . Correcting for this yields an ice discharge acceleration of -15.1 ± 6.5 Gt/yr 2 .

3D Volume and Morphology of Perennial Cave Ice and Related Geomorphological Models at Scăriloara Ice Cave, Romania, from Structure from Motion, Ground Penetrating Radar and Total Station Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubbard, J.; Onac, B. P.; Kruse, S.; Forray, F. L.

2017-12-01

Research at Scăriloara Ice Cave has proceeded for over 150 years, primarily driven by the presence and paleoclimatic importance of the large perennial ice block and various ice speleothems located within its galleries. Previous observations of the ice block led to rudimentary volume estimates of 70,000 to 120,000 cubic meters (m3), prospectively placing it as one of the world's largest cave ice deposits. The cave morphology and the surface of the ice block are now recreated in a total station survey-validated 3D model, produced using Structure from Motion (SfM) software. With the total station survey and the novel use of ArcGIS tools, the SfM validation process is drastically simplified to produce a scaled, georeferenced, and photo-texturized 3D model of the cave environment with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.24 m. Furthermore, ground penetrating radar data was collected and spatially oriented with the total station survey to recreate the ice block basal surface and was combined with the SfM model to create a model of the ice block itself. The resulting ice block model has a volume of over 118,000 m3 with an uncertainty of 9.5%, with additional volumes left un-surveyed. The varying elevation of the ice block basal surface model reflect specific features of the cave roof, such as areas of enlargement, shafts, and potential joints, which offer further validation and inform theories on cave and ice genesis. Specifically, a large depression area was identified as a potential area of initial ice growth. Finally, an ice thickness map was produced that will aid in the designing of future ice coring projects. This methodology presents a powerful means to observe and accurately characterize and measure cave and cave ice morphologies with ease and affordability. Results further establish the significance of Scăriloara's ice block to paleoclimate research, provide insights into cave and ice block genesis, and aid future study design.

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

2014-10-28

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet's dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to -134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 10(6) km(3) greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka(-1) punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5-14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y(-1) (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100-150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15-20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

PubMed Central

Lambeck, Kurt; Rouby, Hélène; Purcell, Anthony; Sun, Yiying; Sambridge, Malcolm

2014-01-01

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet’s dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 106 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m⋅ka−1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5–14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm⋅y−1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100–150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15–20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP. PMID:25313072

Modelling the contribution of supraglacial ice cliffs to the mass-balance of glaciers in the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice

Rapid Ice Mass Loss: Does It Have an Influence on Earthquake Occurrence in Southern Alaska?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber, Jeanne M.

2008-01-01

The glaciers of southern Alaska are extensive, and many of them have undergone gigatons of ice wastage on time scales on the order of the seismic cycle. Since the ice loss occurs directly above a shallow main thrust zone associated with subduction of the Pacific-Yakutat plate beneath continental Alaska, the region between the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers is an excellent test site for evaluating the importance of recent ice wastage on earthquake faulting potential. We demonstrate the influence of cumulative glacial mass loss following the 1899 Yakataga earthquake (M=8.1) by using a two dimensional finite element model with a simple representation of ice fluctuations to calculate the incremental stresses and change in the fault stability margin (FSM) along the main thrust zone (MTZ) and on the surface. Along the MTZ, our results indicate a decrease in FSM between 1899 and the 1979 St. Elias earthquake (M=7.4) of 0.2 - 1.2 MPa over an 80 km region between the coast and the 1979 aftershock zone; at the surface, the estimated FSM was larger but more localized to the lower reaches of glacial ablation zones. The ice-induced stresses were large enough, in theory, to promote the occurrence of shallow thrust earthquakes. To empirically test the influence of short-term ice fluctuations on fault stability, we compared the seismic rate from a reference background time period (1988-1992) against other time periods (1993-2006) with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics. We found that the frequency of small tectonic events in the Icy Bay region increased in 2002-2006 relative to the background seismic rate. We hypothesize that this was due to a significant increase in the rate of ice wastage in 2002-2006 instead of the M=7.9, 2002 Denali earthquake, located more than 100km away.

Vestibular schwannomas: Accuracy of tumor volume estimated by ice cream cone formula using thin-sliced MR images

PubMed Central

Ho, Hsing-Hao; Li, Ya-Hui; Lee, Jih-Chin; Wang, Chih-Wei; Yu, Yi-Lin; Hueng, Dueng-Yuan; Hsu, Hsian-He

2018-01-01

Purpose We estimated the volume of vestibular schwannomas by an ice cream cone formula using thin-sliced magnetic resonance images (MRI) and compared the estimation accuracy among different estimating formulas and between different models. Methods The study was approved by a local institutional review board. A total of 100 patients with vestibular schwannomas examined by MRI between January 2011 and November 2015 were enrolled retrospectively. Informed consent was waived. Volumes of vestibular schwannomas were estimated by cuboidal, ellipsoidal, and spherical formulas based on a one-component model, and cuboidal, ellipsoidal, Linskey’s, and ice cream cone formulas based on a two-component model. The estimated volumes were compared to the volumes measured by planimetry. Intraobserver reproducibility and interobserver agreement was tested. Estimation error, including absolute percentage error (APE) and percentage error (PE), was calculated. Statistical analysis included intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), linear regression analysis, one-way analysis of variance, and paired t-tests with P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Results Overall tumor size was 4.80 ± 6.8 mL (mean ±standard deviation). All ICCs were no less than 0.992, suggestive of high intraobserver reproducibility and high interobserver agreement. Cuboidal formulas significantly overestimated the tumor volume by a factor of 1.9 to 2.4 (P ≤ 0.001). The one-component ellipsoidal and spherical formulas overestimated the tumor volume with an APE of 20.3% and 29.2%, respectively. The two-component ice cream cone method, and ellipsoidal and Linskey’s formulas significantly reduced the APE to 11.0%, 10.1%, and 12.5%, respectively (all P < 0.001). Conclusion The ice cream cone method and other two-component formulas including the ellipsoidal and Linskey’s formulas allow for estimation of vestibular schwannoma volume more accurately than all one-component formulas. PMID:29438424

Vestibular schwannomas: Accuracy of tumor volume estimated by ice cream cone formula using thin-sliced MR images.

PubMed

Ho, Hsing-Hao; Li, Ya-Hui; Lee, Jih-Chin; Wang, Chih-Wei; Yu, Yi-Lin; Hueng, Dueng-Yuan; Ma, Hsin-I; Hsu, Hsian-He; Juan, Chun-Jung

2018-01-01

We estimated the volume of vestibular schwannomas by an ice cream cone formula using thin-sliced magnetic resonance images (MRI) and compared the estimation accuracy among different estimating formulas and between different models. The study was approved by a local institutional review board. A total of 100 patients with vestibular schwannomas examined by MRI between January 2011 and November 2015 were enrolled retrospectively. Informed consent was waived. Volumes of vestibular schwannomas were estimated by cuboidal, ellipsoidal, and spherical formulas based on a one-component model, and cuboidal, ellipsoidal, Linskey's, and ice cream cone formulas based on a two-component model. The estimated volumes were compared to the volumes measured by planimetry. Intraobserver reproducibility and interobserver agreement was tested. Estimation error, including absolute percentage error (APE) and percentage error (PE), was calculated. Statistical analysis included intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), linear regression analysis, one-way analysis of variance, and paired t-tests with P < 0.05 considered statistically significant. Overall tumor size was 4.80 ± 6.8 mL (mean ±standard deviation). All ICCs were no less than 0.992, suggestive of high intraobserver reproducibility and high interobserver agreement. Cuboidal formulas significantly overestimated the tumor volume by a factor of 1.9 to 2.4 (P ≤ 0.001). The one-component ellipsoidal and spherical formulas overestimated the tumor volume with an APE of 20.3% and 29.2%, respectively. The two-component ice cream cone method, and ellipsoidal and Linskey's formulas significantly reduced the APE to 11.0%, 10.1%, and 12.5%, respectively (all P < 0.001). The ice cream cone method and other two-component formulas including the ellipsoidal and Linskey's formulas allow for estimation of vestibular schwannoma volume more accurately than all one-component formulas.

Arctic Sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R. W.; Schweiger, A. J. B.

2014-12-01

68% reduction and there is no indication it may be leveling off as seen in an earlier study of submarine ice drafts by Rothrock et al. (2008). This is nearly double the 36% decline report by them. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of sea ice losses found in model reanalyses.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Quantifying ice cliff contribution to debris-covered glacier mass balance from multiple sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brun, Fanny; Wagnon, Patrick; Berthier, Etienne; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; Immerzeel, Walter; Shea, Joseph; Vincent, Christian

2017-04-01

Ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers have been recognized as a hot spot for glacier melt. Ice cliffs are steep (even sometimes overhanging) and fast evolving surface features, which make them challenging to monitor. We surveyed the topography of Changri Nup Glacier (Nepalese Himalayas, Everest region) in November 2015 and 2016 using multiple sensors: terrestrial photogrammetry, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, Pléiades stereo images and ASTER stereo images. We derived 3D point clouds and digital elevation models (DEMs) following a Structure-from-Motion (SfM) workflow for the first two sets of data to monitor surface elevation changes and calculate the associated volume loss. We derived only DEMs for the two last data sets. The derived DEMs had resolutions ranging from < 5 cm to 30 m. The derived point clouds and DEMs are used to quantify the ice melt of the cliffs at different scales. The very high resolution SfM point clouds, together with the surface velocity field, will be used to calculate the volume losses of 14 individual cliffs, depending on their size, aspect or the presence of supra glacial lake. Then we will extend this analysis to the whole glacier to quantify the contribution of ice cliff melt to the overall glacier mass balance, calculated with the UAV and Pléiades DEMs. This research will provide important tools to evaluate the role of ice cliffs in regional mass loss.

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2015-02-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of mean ice thickness have been sparse in time and space, making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness, and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling errors. Observational sources used in this study include upward-looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to determine the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems, using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month, and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2012 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2012. Applying our method to the period 1975-2012 for the central Arctic Basin where we have sufficient data (the SCICEX box), we find that the annual mean ice thickness has decreased from 3.59 m in 1975 to 1.25 m in 2012, a 65% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational evidence of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindsay, R.; Schweiger, A.

2014-08-01

Sea ice thickness is a fundamental climate state variable that provides an integrated measure of changes in the high-latitude energy balance. However, observations of ice thickness have been sparse in time and space making the construction of observation-based time series difficult. Moreover, different groups use a variety of methods and processing procedures to measure ice thickness and each observational source likely has different and poorly characterized measurement and sampling biases. Observational sources include upward looking sonars mounted on submarines or moorings, electromagnetic sensors on helicopters or aircraft, and lidar or radar altimeters on airplanes or satellites. Here we use a curve-fitting approach to evaluate the systematic differences between eight different observation systems in the Arctic Basin. The approach determines the large-scale spatial and temporal variability of the ice thickness as well as the mean differences between the observation systems using over 3000 estimates of the ice thickness. The thickness estimates are measured over spatial scales of approximately 50 km or time scales of 1 month and the primary time period analyzed is 2000-2013 when the modern mix of observations is available. Good agreement is found between five of the systems, within 0.15 m, while systematic differences of up to 0.5 m are found for three others compared to the five. The trend in annual mean ice thickness over the Arctic Basin is -0.58 ± 0.07 m decade-1 over the period 2000-2013, while the annual mean ice thickness for the central Arctic Basin alone (the SCICEX Box) has decreased from 3.45 m in 1975 to 1.11 m in 2013, a 68% reduction. This is nearly double the 36% decline reported by an earlier study. These results provide additional direct observational confirmation of substantial sea ice losses found in model analyses.

Global mountain snow and ice loss driven by dust and black carbon radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.

2014-12-01

Changes in mountain snow and glaciers have been our strongest indicators of the effects of changing climate. Earlier melt of snow and losses of glacier mass have perturbed regional water cycling, regional climate, and ecosystem dynamics, and contributed strongly to sea level rise. Recent studies however have revealed that in some regions, the reduction of albedo by light absorbing impurities in snow and ice such as dust and black carbon can be distinctly more powerful than regional warming at melting snow and ice. In the Rocky Mountains, dust deposition has increased 5 to 7 fold in the last 150 years, leading to ~3 weeks earlier loss of snow cover from forced melt. In absolute terms, in some years dust radiative forcing there can shorten snow cover duration by nearly two months. Remote sensing retrievals are beginning to reveal powerful dust and black carbon radiative forcing in the Hindu Kush through Himalaya. In light of recent ice cores that show pronounced increases in loading of dust and BC during the Anthropocene, these forcings may have contributed far more to glacier retreat than previously thought. For example, we have shown that the paradoxical end of the Little Ice Age in the European Alps beginning around 1850 (when glaciers began to retreat but temperatures continued to decline and precipitation was unchanged) very likely was driven by the massive increases in deposition to snow and ice of black carbon from industrialization in surrounding nations. A more robust understanding of changes in mountain snow and ice during the Anthropocene requires that we move past simplistic treatments (e.g. temperature-index modeling) to energy balance approaches that assess changes in the individual forcings such as the most powerful component for melt - net solar radiation. Remote sensing retrievals from imaging spectrometers and multispectral sensors are giving us more powerful insights into the time-space variation of snow and ice albedo.

Southern Alaska Glaciers: Spatial and Temporal Variations in Ice Volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauber, J.; Molnia, B. F.; Luthcke, S.; Rowlands, D.; Harding, D.; Carabajal, C.; Hurtado, J. M.; Spada, G.

2004-12-01

footprint returns to estimate glacier ice elevations and surface characteristics. To obtain the optimal ICESat results, we are reprocessing the ICESat data from Alaska to provide a well-calibrated regional ICESat solution. We anticipate that our ICESat results combined with earlier data will provide new constraints on the temporal and spatial variations in ice volume of individual Alaskan mountain ranges. These results allow us to address how recent melting of the southern Alaska glaciers contribute to short-term sea-level rise. Our results will also enable us to quantify crustal stress changes due to ice mass fluctuations and to assess the influence of ice mass changes on the seismically active southern Alaskan plate boundary zone.

Quantifying the mass loss of peripheral Greenland glaciers and ice caps (1958-2014).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Machguth, Horst; van den Broeke, Michiel

2016-04-01

Since the 2000s, mass loss from Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) has accelerated, becoming an important contributor to sea level rise. Under continued warming throughout the 21st century, GICs might yield up to 7.5 to 11 mm sea level rise, with increasing dominance of surface runoff at the expense of ice discharge. However, despite multiple observation campaigns, little remains known about the contribution of GICs to total Greenland mass loss. Furthermore, the relatively coarse resolutions in regional climate models, i.e. 5 km to 20 km, fail to represent the small scale patterns of surface mass balance (SMB) components over these topographically complex regions including also narrow valley glaciers. Here, we present a novel approach to quantify the contribution of GICs to surface melt and runoff, based on an elevation dependent downscaling method. GICs daily SMB components at 1 km resolution are obtained by statistically downscaling the outputs of RACMO2.3 at 11 km resolution to a down-sampled version of the GIMP DEM for the period 1958-2014. This method has recently been successfully validated over the Greenland ice sheet and is now applied to GICs. In this study, we first evaluate the 1 km daily downscaled GICs SMB against a newly available and comprehensive dataset of ablation stake measurements. Then, we investigate present-day trends of meltwater production and SMB for different regions and estimate GICs contribution to total Greenland mass loss. These data are considered valuable for model evaluation and prediction of future sea level rise.

Hydrogen-Bonding Surfaces for Ice Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Joseph G., Jr.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Kreeger, Richard E.; Hadley, Kevin R.; McDougall, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Ice formation on aircraft, either on the ground or in-flight, is a major safety issue. While ground icing events occur predominantly during the winter months, in-flight icing can happen anytime during the year. The latter is more problematic since it could result in increased drag and loss of lift. Under a Phase I ARMD NARI Seedling Activity, coated aluminum surfaces possessing hydrogen-bonding groups were under investigation for mitigating ice formation. Hydroxyl and methyl terminated dimethylethoxysilanes were prepared via known chemistries and characterized by spectroscopic methods. These materials were subsequently used to coat aluminum surfaces. Surface compositions were based on pure hydroxyl and methyl terminated species as well as mixtures of the two. Coated surfaces were characterized by contact angle goniometry. Receding water contact angle data suggested several potential surfaces that may exhibit reduced ice adhesion. Qualitative icing experiments performed under representative environmental temperatures using supercooled distilled water delivered via spray coating were inconclusive. Molecular modeling studies suggested that chain mobility affected the interface between ice and the surface more than terminal group chemical composition. Chain mobility resulted from the creation of "pockets" of increased free volume for longer chains to occupy.

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Suo, Lingling; Wang, Tao; Gastineau, Guillaume; Nakamura, Tetsu; Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ukita, Jinro; Semenov, Vladimir

2018-04-01

Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high-latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps.

PubMed

Noël, B; van de Berg, W J; Lhermitte, S; Wouters, B; Machguth, H; Howat, I; Citterio, M; Moholdt, G; Lenaerts, J T M; van den Broeke, M R

2017-03-31

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -1 , or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

PubMed Central

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-01-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt−1, or ∼14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming. PMID:28361871

A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, B.; van de Berg, W. J.; Lhermitte, S.; Wouters, B.; Machguth, H.; Howat, I.; Citterio, M.; Moholdt, G.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2017-03-01

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (+/-5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36+/-16 Gt-1, or ~14% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Exploring the effect of East Antarctic ice mass loss on GIA-induced horizontal bedrock motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konfal, S. A.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Hermans, T.; van der Wal, W.; Wilson, T. J.; Bevis, M. G.; Kendrick, E. C.; Dalziel, I.; Smalley, R., Jr.

2017-12-01

Ice history inputs used in Antarctic models of GIA include major centers of ice mass loss in West Antarctica. In the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) region spanning the boundary between East and West Antarctica, horizontal crustal motions derived from GPS observations from the Antarctic Network (ANET) component of the Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) are towards these West Antarctic ice mass centers, opposite to the pattern of radial crustal motion expected in an unloading scenario. We investigate alternative ice history and earth structure inputs to GIA models in an attempt to reproduce observed crustal motions in the region. The W12 ice history model is altered to create scenarios including ice unloading in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin based on available glaciological records. These altered ice history models, along with the unmodified W12 ice history model, are coupled with 60 radially varying (1D) earth model combinations, including approximations of optimal earth profiles identified in published GIA models. The resulting model-predicted motions utilizing both the modified and unmodified ice history models fit ANET GPS-derived crustal motions in the northern TAM region for a suite of earth model combinations. Further south, where the influence of simulated Wilkes unloading is weakest and West Antarctic unloading is strongest, observed and predicted motions do not agree. The influence of simulated Wilkes ice unloading coupled with laterally heterogeneous earth models is also investigated. The resulting model-predicted motions do not differ significantly between the original W12 and W12 with simulated Wilkes unloading ice histories.

Insight to Marine Isotope Stage 13 using Late Pleistocene relaxation models of ice volume and carbon cycle change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisiecki, L. E.; Herrero, C.; García-Olivares, A.

2016-12-01

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13 interglacial is unusual in that warm Northern Hemisphere conditions were accompanied by relatively cool Southern Hemisphere conditions and because it was preceded by a mild glaciation (MIS 14) with less ice volume and higher CO2 levels than the two preceding glacial maxima. Here we investigate Late Pleistocene glacial cycles, and MIS 13 in particular, using two relaxation models from García-Olivares & Herrero [2013] that describe the relationships between global ice volume (V), atmospheric CO2 (C) and the extent of the Antarctic ice shelves (A). The two models differ in parameterizing deep ocean stratification as either a function of V and A (model 3τ) or as a function of C and A (model LS). Note that global ice volume, V, is most closely related to Northern hemisphere climate, whereas C and A are most closely related to Antarctic climate. Here we present the results of using a sea level stack [Spratt & Lisiecki, 2016] as the ice volume tuning target instead of benthic δ18O. We find that tuning to the sea level stack dramatically improves the simulation of MIS 13 in the 3τ model. With the sea level stack, 3τ correctly reproduces the weak amplitudes of MIS 13 and 14 and a double peak in CO2 during MIS 13, whereas the LS model does not reproduce these features using either tuning target. The first peak in CO2 follows a minor ice volume decrease at 530 kyr but significantly precedes a second, larger sea level rise at 500 kyr. The later sea level rise coincides with a second benthic δ18O decrease and likely triggered the second CO2 peak. This two-step transition to peak interglacial conditions might be caused by deep ocean stratification and Antarctic ice cover acting out of phase: weakened stratification produced an initial pulse of CO2 from the deep ocean, but because Antarctic warming was unusually weak, the Antarctic ice shelf remained relatively wide and less CO2 than usual was released from the deep ocean. Because ocean

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Ice-volume-forced erosion of the Chinese Loess Plateau global Quaternary stratotype site.

PubMed

Stevens, T; Buylaert, J-P; Thiel, C; Újvári, G; Yi, S; Murray, A S; Frechen, M; Lu, H

2018-03-07

The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) utilises benchmark chronostratigraphies to divide geologic time. The reliability of these records is fundamental to understand past global change. Here we use the most detailed luminescence dating age model yet published to show that the ICS chronology for the Quaternary terrestrial type section at Jingbian, desert marginal Chinese Loess Plateau, is inaccurate. There are large hiatuses and depositional changes expressed across a dynamic gully landform at the site, which demonstrates rapid environmental shifts at the East Asian desert margin. We propose a new independent age model and reconstruct monsoon climate and desert expansion/contraction for the last ~250 ka. Our record demonstrates the dominant influence of ice volume on desert expansion, dust dynamics and sediment preservation, and further shows that East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) variation closely matches that of ice volume, but lags insolation by ~5 ka. These observations show that the EASM at the monsoon margin does not respond directly to precessional forcing.

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

Treesearch

Steven C. Amstrup; Eric T. DeWeaver; David C. Douglas; Bruce G. Marcot; George M. Durner; Cecilia M. Bitz; David A. Bailey

2010-01-01

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible...

Mass loss of the Greenland peripheral glaciers and ice caps from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Bert; Noël, Brice; Moholdt, Geir; Ligtenberg, Stefan; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

At its rapidly warming margins, the Greenland Ice Sheet is surrounded by (semi-)detached glaciers and ice caps (GIC). Although they cover only roughly 5% of the total glaciated area in the region, they are estimated to account for 15-20% of the total sea level rise contribution of Greenland. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mass changes of the peripheral GICs, however, remains poorly constrained. In this presentation, we use satellite altimetry from ICESat and Cryosat-2 combined with a high-resolution regional climate model to derive a 14 year time series (2003-2016) of regional elevation and mass changes. The total mass loss has been relatively constant during this period, but regionally, the GICs show marked temporal variations. Whereas thinning was concentrated along the eastern margin during 2003-2009, western GICs became the prime sea level rise contributors in recent years. Mass loss in the northern region has been steadily increasing throughout the record, due to a strong atmospheric warning and a deterioration of the capacity of the firn layer to buffer the resulting melt water.

The Role Of Orbital Forcing On Polar Ice Volume And Global Sea-Level During The Late Pliocene (3.3-.2.6 Ma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, T.; Grant, G.; Dunbar, G. B.; Patterson, M. O.; Kominz, M. A.; Stocchi, P.

2017-12-01

Challenges remain concerning the potentially intractable problem of constraining the absolute magnitude of Pliocene eustatic sea-level change, and the role of orbital forcing on the frequency of ice volume/sea-level change is widely debated. Here, we present three new high-resolution geological archives for the MPWP: (i) ice-berg rafted debris (IBRD) mass accumulation rates from deep ocean sediment core (IODP U1361) off the Wilkes Margin of Antarctica recording fluctuations in the East Antarctic ice sheet; (ii) a continuous shallow-marine record of sea-level change from the Wanganui Basin, New Zealand; and (iii) a record sea-level-controlled terrigenous sedimentation (IODP 1124) to the deep ocean on Hikurangi margin of New Zealand. All three records are dominated by precession-paced cyclicity ( 20ka) in-phase with high-latitude southern hemisphere insolation between 3.3M-2.9Ma, and provide insights into orbital-forcing of ice volume and sea-level independent of the benthic oxygen isotope records. Moreover, we have back-stripped the Wanganui record to reveal glacial-interglacial sea-level changes of 20±10m amplitude. We conclude that during this interval, precession-paced Antarctic ice volume changes largely drove global glacial-interglacial sea-level fluctuations, in the absence of a significant northern hemisphere ice volume contribution. Prior to 3.3Ma, proxy data from IODP U1361 and ANDRILL 1-A records extending back to 5Ma, show that the Antarctic margin experienced warmer ocean temperatures, a lack of perennial sea-ice, and fluctuations in ice extent paced by obliquity. The emergence of precession at 3.3Ma coincident with the M2 glaciation in the benthic d18O record, also coincides with continent-wide cooling, ice expansion and the development of extensive seasonal sea-ice around Antarctica. We argue that a melt threshold response to orbital forcing was crossed, whereby Antarctic ice sheet melt was restricted to peak austral summer insolation (precession

The volume- and surface-binding energies of ice systems containing CO, CO2, and H2O

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandford, Scott A.; Allamandola, Louis J.

1990-01-01

Laboratory-measured, temperature-dependent sticking efficiencies are presently used to derive the surface-binding energies of CO and CO2 on H2O-rich ices, with a view to determining the condensation and vaporization properties of these systems as well as to the measured energies' implications for both cometary behavior and the evolution of interstellar ices. The molecular volume and the surface binding energies are not found to be necessarily related on the basis of simple nearest-neighbor scaling in surface and bulk sites; this may be due to the physical constraints associated with matrix structure-associated physical constraints, which sometimes dominate the volume-binding energies.

Comparison of Envisat ASAR and Submarine Sea Ice Thickness Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Nicolas E.; Rodrigues, Joao; Wadhams, Peter

2010-12-01

In April 2004 and March 2007 the Royal Navy sent the submarine HMS Tireless on missions into the Arctic Ocean. On both occasions the submarine traversed the area of remaining multi-year sea ice at latitude 85°N north of Greenland acquiring ice draft measurements using upward-looking sonar. The area is outside of the "Gore Box" used for the release of U.S. Submarine data and was beyond the latitude range of the radar altimeter satellites available at that time. This paper compares ice draft statistics with contemporary data from Envisat ASAR to evaluate the level of correlation between SAR backscatter and sea ice thickness. The decline in sea ice volume over the past decade has predominantly been caused by the loss of old multi-year ice due to increased outflow through Fram Strait. Although Tireless found little decrease in the overall ice thickness between 2004 and 2007, the ice rheology was significantly changed with greatly increased quantities of first- and second-year ice in 2007 than had been encountered in 2004. These are evident in changes to the ice draft probability density functions (PDFs) and the ice appearance as seen by the SAR, and presented here.

Change in the Extent of Baffin Island's Penny Ice Cap in Response to Regional Warming, 1969 - 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M. C.; Cormier, H. M.; Gardner, A. S.

2014-12-01

Glaciers are retreating globally in response to warmer atmospheric temperatures, adding large volumes of melt water to the world's oceans. The largest glacierized region and present-day contributor to sea level rise outside of the massive ice sheets is the Canadian Arctic. Recent work has shown that the glaciers of the southern Canadian Arctic (Baffin and Bylot Island) have experienced accelerated rates of ice loss in recent decades, but little is known regarding the spatial and temporal variations in rates of loss. For this study we examine in detail changes in the extent of the Penny Ice Cap (a proxy for ice loss) between 1969 and 2014 to better understand the climatic drivers of the recently observed accelerated rates of ice loss on Baffin Island. To do this, we reconstruct the extent of the ice cap for the year 1969 from historical maps and for the years 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2014 from Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI imagery. We use 2009 SPOT HRS imagery and a novel extent comparison algorithm to assess the accuracy of glacier extents derived from Landsat imagery. Regional temperature and precipitation records were used to explain the spatial pattern of change. Due to large variation in elevations, hypsometry was also investigated as a contributor to differences in rates of change across the ice cap. Preliminary results show overall retreat throughout the ice cap but with regional differences in area and length change on either side of the Ice Cap divide.

Antarctic icebergs melt over the Southern Ocean : Climatology and impact on sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Nacho; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gael; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Madec, Gurvan; Mathiot, Pierre; Tournadre, Jean

2016-08-01

Recent increase in Antarctic freshwater release to the Southern Ocean is suggested to contribute to change in water masses and sea ice. However, climate models differ in their representation of the freshwater sources. Recent improvements in altimetry-based detection of small icebergs and in estimates of the mass loss of Antarctica may help better constrain the values of Antarctic freshwater releases. We propose a model-based seasonal climatology of iceberg melt over the Southern Ocean using state-of-the-art observed glaciological estimates of the Antarctic mass loss. An improved version of a Lagrangian iceberg model is coupled with a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea ice model and compared to small icebergs observations. Iceberg melt increases sea ice cover, about 10% in annual mean sea ice volume, and decreases sea surface temperature over most of the Southern Ocean, but with distinctive regional patterns. Our results underline the importance of improving the representation of Antarctic freshwater sources. This can be achieved by forcing ocean/sea ice models with a climatological iceberg fresh-water flux.

False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

2016-04-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

2015-12-01

Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Sea-Level over the Next Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aschwanden, A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Truffer, M.

2017-12-01

The contribution of Greenland's outlet glaciers to sea-level remains a wild card in global sea level predictions but progress in mapping ice thickness combined with high-resolution flow modeling now allow to revisit questions about the long-term stability of the ice sheet. Here we present the first outlet glacier resolving assessment of Greenland's contribution to sea-level over the next millennium. We find that increased ice discharge resulting from acceleration of outlet glaciers due to ice melt at tidewater glacier margins dominates mass loss during the 21st century. However, as the ice sheet surfaces lowers, surface melt increases and over the course of the millennium, the relative contribution of ice discharge to total mass loss decreases. By the end of the 22nd century, most outlet glaciers in the north-west will have retreated out of tide-water, while in south-east enhanced precipitation partially offsets high ice discharge. The outlet glaciers of the central west coast, most notably Jakobshavn Isbrae, play a key role in dynamic mass loss due to their submarine connection to the interior reservoir. We find that coast-ward advection of cold ice from the interior counteracts outlet glacier acceleration by increasing ice viscosity and thereby reducing vertical shearing. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the ice margin in north and north-east Greenland retreats far enough to reach the vast interior where the subglacial topography is below sea level. This leads to a dramatic retreat in the second part of the millenium, and Greenland could shrink to 10% of its current volume by the end of the millennium.

Constraints on ice volume changes of the WAIS and Ross Ice Shelf since the LGM based on cosmogenic exposure ages in the Darwin-Hatherton glacial system of the Transantarctic Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, David; Storey, Bryan; Hood, David; Joy, Kurt; Shulmeister, James

2010-05-01

Quantitative assessment of the spatial and temporal scale of ice volume change of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and Ross Ice Shelf since the last glacial maximum (LGM) ~20 ka is essential to accurately predict ice sheet response to current and future climate change. Although global sea level rose by approximately 120 metres since the LGM, the contribution of polar ice sheets is uncertain and the timing of any such contribution is controversial. Mackintosh et al (2007) suggest that sectors of the EAIS, similar to those studied at Framnes Mountains where the ice sheet slowly calves at coastal margins, have made marginal contributions to global sea-level rise between 13 and 7 ka. In contrast, Stone et al (2003) document continuing WAIS decay during the mid-late Holocene, raising the question of what was the response of the WAIS since LGM and into the Holocene. Terrestrial evidence is restricted to sparse coastal oasis and ice free mountains which archive limits of former ice advances. Mountain ranges flanking the Darwin-Hatherton glaciers exhibit well-defined moraines, weathering signatures, boulder rich plateaus and glacial tills, which preserve the evidence of advance and retreat of the ice sheet during previous glacial cycles. Previous studies suggest a WAIS at the LGM in this location to be at least 1,000 meters thicker than today. As part of the New Zealand Latitudinal Gradient Project along the Transantarctic, we collected samples for cosmogenic exposure dating at a) Lake Wellman area bordering the Hatherton Glacier, (b) Roadend Nunatak at the confluence of the Darwin and Hatherton glaciers and (c) Diamond Hill which is positioned at the intersection of the Ross Ice Shelf and Darwin Glacier outlet. While the technique of exposure dating is very successful in mid-latitude alpine glacier systems, it is more challenging in polar ice-sheet regions due to the prevalence of cold-based ice over-riding events and absence of outwash processes which removes

Detection and Analysis of Complex Patterns of Ice Dynamics in Antarctica from ICESat Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babonis, Gregory Scott

There remains much uncertainty in estimating the amount of Antarctic ice mass change, its dynamic component, and its spatial and temporal patterns. This work remedies the limitations of previous studies by generating the first detailed reconstruction of total and dynamic ice thickness and mass changes across Antarctica, from ICESat satellite altimetry observations in 2003-2009 using the Surface Elevation Reconstruction and Change Detection (SERAC) method. Ice sheet thickness changes are calculated with quantified error estimates for each time when ICESat flew over a ground-track crossover region, at approximately 110,000 locations across the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The time series are partitioned into changes due to surficial processes and ice dynamics. The new results markedly improve the spatial and temporal resolution of surface elevation, volume, and mass change rates for the AIS, and can be sampled at annual temporal resolutions. The results indicate a complex spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic mass loss in Antarctica, especially along individual outlet glaciers, and allow for the quantification of the annual contribution of Antarctic ice loss to sea level rise. Over 5000 individual locations exhibit either strong dynamic ice thickness change patterns, accounting for approximately 500 unique spatial clusters that identify regions likely influenced by subglacial hydrology. The spatial distribution and temporal behavior of these regions reveal the complexity and short-time scale variability in the subglacial hydrological system. From the 500 unique spatial clusters, over 370 represent newly identified, and not previously published, potential subglacial water bodies indicating an active subglacial hydrological system over a much larger region than previously observed. These numerous new observations of dynamic changes provide more than simply a larger set of data. Examination of both regional and local scale dynamic change patterns across Antarctica shows newly

Portable Low Volume Therapy for Severe Blood Loss

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

loss . 8 24-hour survival showed no statistical differences (p>0.05) between BHB/M (mean survival 21.0 ± 2.74 hrs) and 4 M BHB, 4.3 mM melatonin...in Figure 6 were compared 24 hours and 10 days after 60% blood loss . Pairwise comparisons are summarized in Table 3. No treatment differences were...Award Number: W81XWH-11-1-0409 TITLE: Portable Low-Volume Therapy for Severe Blood Loss PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Matthew T. Andrews CONTRACTING

Sensitivity of Great Lakes Ice Cover to Air Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, J. A.; Titze, D.

2016-12-01

Ice cover is shown to exhibit a strong linear sensitivity to air temperature. Upwards of 70% of ice cover variability on all of the Great Lakes can be explained in terms of air temperature, alone, and nearly 90% of ice cover variability can be explained in some lakes. Ice cover sensitivity to air temperature is high, and a difference in seasonally-averaged (Dec-May) air temperature on the order of 1°C to 2°C can be the difference between a low-ice year and a moderate- to high- ice year. The total amount of seasonal ice cover is most influenced by air temperatures during the meteorological winter, contemporaneous with the time of ice formation. Air temperature conditions during the pre-winter conditioning period and during the spring melting period were found to have less of an impact on seasonal ice cover. This is likely due to the fact that there is a negative feedback mechanism when heat loss goes toward cooling the lake, but a positive feedback mechanism when heat loss goes toward ice formation. Ice cover sensitivity relationships were compared between shallow coastal regions of the Great Lakes and similarly shallow smaller, inland lakes. It was found that the sensitivity to air temperature is similar between these coastal regions and smaller lakes, but that the absolute amount of ice that forms varies significantly between small lakes and the Great Lakes, and amongst the Great Lakes themselves. The Lake Superior application of the ROMS three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model verifies a deterministic linear relationship between air temperature and ice cover, which is also strongest around the period of ice formation. When the Lake Superior bathymetry is experimentally adjusted by a constant vertical multiplier, average lake depth is shown to have a nonlinear relationship with seasonal ice cover, and this nonlinearity may be associated with a nonlinear increase in the lake-wide volume of the surface mixed layer.

A coupled ice-ocean model of ice breakup and banding in the marginal ice zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smedstad, O. M.; Roed, L. P.

1985-01-01

A coupled ice-ocean numerical model for the marginal ice zone is considered. The model consists of a nonlinear sea ice model and a two-layer (reduced gravity) ocean model. The dependence of the upwelling response on wind stress direction is discussed. The results confirm earlier analytical work. It is shown that there exist directions for which there is no upwelling, while other directions give maximum upwelling in terms of the volume of uplifted water. The ice and ocean is coupled directly through the stress at the ice-ocean interface. An interesting consequence of the coupling is found in cases when the ice edge is almost stationary. In these cases the ice tends to break up a few tenths of kilometers inside of the ice edge.

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-04-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-05-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

High Northern Latitude Insolation Forcing of Tropical Monsoons or Monsoon Forcing of High Northern Latitude Ice Volume?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, W.; Zhou, W.; Cheng, L.; Wu, Z.; Xian, F.; Kong, X.; Cottam, T.; An, Z.; White, L.

2017-12-01

We show that atmospheric 10Be flux is a quantitative proxy for rainfall, and use it to derive a 530Ka-long record of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall from Chinese Loess. Our record strongly resembles the Red Sea paleosea level and LR04 benthic foram δ18O records, with 53% & 45% of its variance reflected in each of these two global ice volume proxies. This suggests EASM intensity is closely coupled to ice volume by some mechanism. At first glance, this seems to support the claim based on strongly correlated Chinese cave δ18O and 65°N summer solar insolation that Asian monsoon intensity is controlled by high northern latitude insolation. Nevertheless, our 10Be-proxy has only 17% common variance with cave δ18O. Furthermore, Chinese cave δ18O records are very poorly correlated with sea-level/global ice volume, conflicting with both our proxy and Milankovitch theory, if interpreted as a monsoon intensity proxy. We argue that cave δ18O is instead a mixing proxy for monsoon moisture derived from (δ18O depleted) Indian vs Pacific monsoon sectors. We suggest both this mixing ratio and EASM intensity are not governed by high northern latitude insolation, but rather by orbital forcing of the low latitude interhemispheric insolation gradient, which mimics the 65°N insolation pattern. We show this gradient regulates the ratio of Asian monsoon outflow to the Indian vs. North Pacific subtropical highs, providing a coupling to both Hadley and Walker circulations. When outflow strengthens in one of these sectors it weakens in the other, regulating the relative strength of the Trade and Westerly winds in each sector. Trade wind coupling to monsoon strength in each sector controls the ISM/Pacific monsoon moisture mixing ratio and EASM intensity, although intensity is also influenced by other factors. This model provides mechanisms by which the monsoons may influence ice volume. Westerlies strength adjacent to the North Pacific Subtropical High strongly regulates transient

Contribution of Deformation to Sea Ice Mass Balance: A Case Study From an N-ICE2015 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itkin, Polona; Spreen, Gunnar; Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Skourup, Henriette; Wilkinson, Jeremy; Gerland, Sebastian; Granskog, Mats A.

2018-01-01

The fastest and most efficient process of gaining sea ice volume is through the mechanical redistribution of mass as a consequence of deformation events. During the ice growth season divergent motion produces leads where new ice grows thermodynamically, while convergent motion fractures the ice and either piles the resultant ice blocks into ridges or rafts one floe under the other. Here we present an exceptionally detailed airborne data set from a 9 km2 area of first year and second year ice in the Transpolar Drift north of Svalbard that allowed us to estimate the redistribution of mass from an observed deformation event. To achieve this level of detail we analyzed changes in sea ice freeboard acquired from two airborne laser scanner surveys just before and right after a deformation event brought on by a passing low-pressure system. A linear regression model based on divergence during this storm can explain 64% of freeboard variability. Over the survey region we estimated that about 1.3% of level sea ice volume was pressed together into deformed ice and the new ice formed in leads in a week after the deformation event would increase the sea ice volume by 0.5%. As the region is impacted by about 15 storms each winter, a simple linear extrapolation would result in about 7% volume increase and 20% deformed ice fraction at the end of the season.

Water storage in marine sediment and implications for inferences of past global ice volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Li, Q.; Pico, T.; Austermann, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in past sea level are of wide interest because they provide information on the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate change, and thus inform predictions of future sea-level change. Sea level changes are influenced by many processes, including the storage of water in sedimentary pore space. Here we use a recent extension of gravitationally self-consistent sea-level models to explore the effects of marine sedimentary water storage on the global seawater balance and inferences of past global ice volume. Our analysis suggests that sedimentary water storage can be a significant component of the global seawater budget over the 105-year timescales associated with glacial-interglacial cycles, and an even larger component over longer timescales. Estimates of global sediment fluxes to the oceans suggest that neglecting marine sedimentary water storage may produce meter-scale errors in estimates of peak global mean sea level equivalent (GMSL) during the Last Interglacial (LIG). These calculations show that marine sedimentary water storage can be a significant contributor to the overall effects of sediment redistribution on sea-level change, and that neglecting sedimentary water storage can lead to substantial errors in inferences of global ice volume at past interglacials. This highlights the importance of accounting for the influences of sediment fluxes and sedimentary water storage on sea-level change over glacial-interglacial timescales.

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Increased ice flow in Western Palmer Land linked to ocean melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogg, Anna E.; Shepherd, Andrew; Cornford, Stephen L.; Briggs, Kate H.; Gourmelen, Noel; Graham, Jennifer A.; Joughin, Ian; Mouginot, Jeremie; Nagler, Thomas; Payne, Antony J.; Rignot, Eric; Wuite, Jan

2017-05-01

A decrease in the mass and volume of Western Palmer Land has raised the prospect that ice speed has increased in this marine-based sector of Antarctica. To assess this possibility, we measure ice velocity over 25 years using satellite imagery and an optimized modeling approach. More than 30 unnamed outlet glaciers drain the 800 km coastline of Western Palmer Land at speeds ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 m/d, interspersed with near-stagnant ice. Between 1992 and 2015, most of the outlet glaciers sped up by 0.2 to 0.3 m/d, leading to a 13% increase in ice flow and a 15 km3/yr increase in ice discharge across the sector as a whole. Speedup is greatest where glaciers are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, consistent with a loss of buttressing caused by ice shelf thinning in a region of shoaling warm circumpolar water.

Solitary Waves of Ice Loss Detected in Greenland Crustal Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2017-12-01

The annual cycle and secular trend of Greenland mass loading are well recorded in measurements of solid Earth deformation. While bedrock vertical displacements are in phase with loading as inferred from space observations, horizontal motions have received almost no attention. The horizontal bedrock displacements can potentially track the spatiotemporal detail of mass changes with great fidelity. Our analysis of Greenland crustal motion data reveals that a significant excitation of horizontal amplitudes occurs during the intense Greenland melting. A suite of space geodetic observations and climate reanalysis data cannot explain these large horizontal displacements. We discover that solitary seasonal waves of substantial mass transport traveled through Rink Glacier in 2010 and 2012. We deduce that intense summer melting enhanced either basal lubrication or shear softening, or both, causing the glacier to thin dynamically. The newly routed upstream sublglacial water was likely to be both retarded and inefficient, thus providing a causal mechanism for the prolonged ice transport to continue well into the winter months. As the climate continues to produce increasingly warmer spring and summer, amplified seasonal waves of mass transport may become ever more present in years of future observations. Increased frequency of amplified seasonal mass transport may ultimately strengthen the Greenland's dynamic ice mass loss, a component of the balance that will have important ramifications for sea level rise. This animation shows a solitary wave passing through Rink Glacier, Greenland, in 2012, recorded by the motion of a GPS station (circle with arrow). Darker blue colors within the flow indicate mass loss, red colors show mass gain. The star marks the center of the wave. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Variations of the earth's magnetic field and rapid climatic cooling: A possible link through changes in global ice volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, M. R.

1979-01-01

A possible relationship between large scale changes in global ice volume, variations in the earth's magnetic field, and short term climatic cooling is investigated through a study of the geomagnetic and climatic records of the past 300,000 years. The calculations suggest that redistribution of the Earth's water mass can cause rotational instabilities which lead to geomagnetic excursions; these magnetic variations in turn may lead to short-term coolings through upper atmosphere effects. Such double coincidences of magnetic excursions and sudden coolings at times of ice volume changes have occurred at 13,500, 30,000, 110,000, and 135,000 YBP.

Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

PubMed

Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

2010-05-28

Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss.

PubMed

Laidre, Kristin L; Born, Erik W; Atkinson, Stephen N; Wiig, Øystein; Andersen, Liselotte W; Lunn, Nicholas J; Dyck, Markus; Regehr, Eric V; McGovern, Richard; Heagerty, Patrick

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n  = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km 2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km 2 (SE 23,000) ( p  < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6 ° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1 ° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with significant reductions in the numbers of bears moving into Davis Strait (DS) in winter and Lancaster Sound (LS) in summer. Harvest recoveries suggested both short and long-term fidelity to BB remained high over both periods (83-99% of marked bears remained in BB). Genetic analyses using eight polymorphic microsatellites confirmed a previously documented differentiation between BB, DS, and LS; yet weakly differentiated BB from Kane Basin (KB) for the first time. Our results provide the first multiple lines of evidence for an increasingly geographically and functionally isolated subpopulation of polar bears in the context of long-term sea-ice loss. This may be indicative of future patterns for other polar bear subpopulations under

Fingerprinting sea-level variations in response to continental ice loss: a benchmark exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, Valentina R.; Spada, Giorgio; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; James, Thomas S.; Simon, Karen M.; van der Wal, Wouter; Martinec, Zdenek; Klemann, Volker; Olsson, Per-Anders; Hagedoorn, Jan; Stocchi, Paolo; Vermeersen, Bert

2013-04-01

Understanding the response of the Earth to the waxing and waning ice sheets is crucial in various contexts, ranging from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions between the ice sheets, the solid Earth, and the oceans. Modern approaches to the SLE are based on various techniques that range from purely analytical formulations to fully numerical methods. Here we present the results of a benchmark exercise of independently developed codes designed to solve the SLE. The study involves predictions of current sea level changes due to present-day ice mass loss. In spite of the differences in the methods employed, the comparison shows that a significant number of GIA modellers can reproduce their sea-level computations within 2% for well defined, large-scale present-day ice mass changes. Smaller and more detailed loads need further and dedicated benchmarking and high resolution computation. This study shows how the details of the implementation and the inputs specifications are an important, and often underappreciated, aspect. Hence this represents a step toward the assessment of reliability of sea level projections obtained with benchmarked SLE codes.

Modeling Wave-Ice Interactions in the Marginal Ice Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzech, Mark; Shi, Fengyan; Bateman, Sam; Veeramony, Jay; Calantoni, Joe

2015-04-01

The small-scale (O(m)) interactions between waves and ice floes in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) are investigated with a coupled model system. Waves are simulated with the non-hydrostatic finite-volume model NHWAVE (Ma et al., 2012) and ice floes are represented as bonded collections of smaller particles with the discrete element system LIGGGHTS (Kloss et al., 2012). The physics of fluid and ice are recreated as authentically as possible, to allow the coupled system to supplement and/or substitute for more costly and demanding field experiments. The presentation will first describe the development and validation of the coupled system, then discuss the results of a series of virtual experiments in which ice floe and wave characteristics are varied to examine their effects on energy dissipation, MIZ floe size distribution, and ice pack retreat rates. Although Wadhams et al. (1986) suggest that only a small portion (roughly 10%) of wave energy entering the MIZ is reflected, dissipation mechanisms for the remaining energy have yet to be delineated or measured. The virtual experiments are designed to focus on specific properties and processes - such as floe size and shape, collision and fracturing events, and variations in wave climate - and measure their relative roles the transfer of energy and momentum from waves to ice. Questions to be examined include: How is energy dissipated by ice floe collisions, fracturing, and drag, and how significant is the wave attenuation associated with each process? Do specific wave/floe length scale ratios cause greater wave attenuation? How does ice material strength affect the rate of wave energy loss? The coupled system will ultimately be used to test and improve upon wave-ice parameterizations for large-scale climate models. References: >Kloss, C., C. Goniva, A. Hager, S. Amberger, and S. Pirker (2012). Models, algorithms and validation for opensource DEM and CFD-DEM. Progress in Computational Fluid Dynamics 12(2/3), 140-152. >Ma, G

Cardiovascular regulatory response to lower body negative pressure following blood volume loss

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shimizu, M.; Ghista, D. N.; Sandler, H.

1979-01-01

An attempt is made to explain the cardiovascular regulatory responses to lower body negative pressure (LBNP) stress, both in the absence of and following blood or plasma volume loss, the latter being factors regularly observed with short- or long-term recumbency or weightlessness and associated with resulting cardiovascular deconditioning. Analytical expressions are derived for the responses of mean venous pressure and blood volume pooled in the lower body due to LBNP. An analysis is presented for determining the HR change due to LBNP stress following blood volume loss. It is concluded that the reduced orthostatic tolerance following long-term space flight or recumbency can be mainly attributed to blood volume loss, and that the associated cardiovascular responses characterizing this orthostatic intolerance is elicited by the associated central venous pressure response.

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900.

PubMed

Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Korsgaard, Niels J; Bjørk, Anders A; Khan, Shfaqat A; Box, Jason E; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K; Bamber, Jonathan L; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-12-17

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Box, Jason E.; Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Colgan, William; van den Broeke, Michiel; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Nuth, Christopher; Schomacker, Anders; Andresen, Camilla S.; Willerslev, Eske; Kjær, Kurt H.

2015-12-01

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to changes in temperature during the twentieth century remains contentious, largely owing to difficulties in estimating the spatial and temporal distribution of ice mass changes before 1992, when Greenland-wide observations first became available. The only previous estimates of change during the twentieth century are based on empirical modelling and energy balance modelling. Consequently, no observation-based estimates of the contribution from the GIS to the global-mean sea level budget before 1990 are included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here we calculate spatial ice mass loss around the entire GIS from 1900 to the present using aerial imagery from the 1980s. This allows accurate high-resolution mapping of geomorphic features related to the maximum extent of the GIS during the Little Ice Age at the end of the nineteenth century. We estimate the total ice mass loss and its spatial distribution for three periods: 1900-1983 (75.1 ± 29.4 gigatonnes per year), 1983-2003 (73.8 ± 40.5 gigatonnes per year), and 2003-2010 (186.4 ± 18.9 gigatonnes per year). Furthermore, using two surface mass balance models we partition the mass balance into a term for surface mass balance (that is, total precipitation minus total sublimation minus runoff) and a dynamic term. We find that many areas currently undergoing change are identical to those that experienced considerable thinning throughout the twentieth century. We also reveal that the surface mass balance term shows a considerable decrease since 2003, whereas the dynamic term is constant over the past 110 years. Overall, our observation-based findings show that during the twentieth century the GIS contributed at least 25.0 ± 9.4 millimetres of global-mean sea level rise. Our result will help to close the twentieth-century sea level budget, which remains crucial for evaluating the reliability of models used to

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 21 Appendix T - Forecast Sea Ice Area Fraction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M.

2017-06-01

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plusmore » two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.« less

Polar zoobenthos blue carbon storage increases with sea ice losses, because across-shelf growth gains from longer algal blooms outweigh ice scour mortality in the shallows.

PubMed

Barnes, David K A

2017-12-01

One of the major climate-forced global changes has been white to blue to green; losses of sea ice extent in time and space around Arctic and West Antarctic seas has increased open water and the duration (though not magnitude) of phytoplankton blooms. Blueing of the poles has increases potential for heat absorption for positive feedback but conversely the longer phytoplankton blooms have increased carbon export to storage and sequestration by shelf benthos. However, ice shelf collapses and glacier retreat can calve more icebergs, and the increased open water allows icebergs more opportunities to scour the seabed, reducing zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage. Here the size and variability in benthic blue carbon in mega and macrobenthos was assessed in time and space at Ryder and Marguerite bays of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In particular the influence of the duration of primary productivity and ice scour are investigated from the shallows to typical shelf depths of 500 m. Ice scour frequency dominated influence on benthic blue carbon at 5 m, to comparable with phytoplankton duration by 25 m depth. At 500 m only phytoplankton duration was significant and influential. WAP zoobenthos was calculated to generate ~10 7 , 4.5 × 10 6 and 1.6 × 10 6 tonnes per year (between 2002 and 2015) in terms of production, immobilization and sequestration of carbon respectively. Thus about 1% of annual primary productivity has sequestration potential at the end of the trophic cascade. Polar zoobenthic blue carbon capture and storage responses to sea ice losses, the largest negative feedback on climate change, has been underestimated despite some offsetting of gain by increased ice scouring with more open water. Equivalent survey of Arctic and sub-Antarctic shelves, for which new projects have started, should reveal the true extent of this feedback and how much its variability contributes to uncertainty in climate models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Volcano–ice interactions precursory to the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bleick, Heather A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Bull, Katharine F.; Wessels, Rick

2013-01-01

In late summer of 2008, after nearly 20 years of quiescence, Redoubt Volcano began to show signs of abnormal heat flow in its summit crater. In the months that followed, the excess heat triggered melting and ablation of Redoubt's glaciers, beginning at the summit and propagating to lower elevations as the unrest accelerated. A variety of morphological changes were observed, including the creation of ice cauldrons, areas of wide-spread subsidence, punctures in the ice carved out by steam, and deposition from debris flows. In this paper, we use visual observations, satellite data, and a high resolution digital elevation model of the volcanic edifice to calculate ice loss at Redoubt as a function of time. Our aim is to establish from this time series a proxy for heat flow that can be compared to other data sets collected along the same time interval. Our study area consists of the Drift glacier, which flows from the summit crater down the volcano's north slope, and makes up about one quarter of Redoubt's total ice volume of ~ 4 km3. The upper part of the Drift glacier covers the area of recent volcanism, making this part of ice mass most susceptible to the effect of volcanic heating. Moreover, melt water and other flows are channeled down the Drift glacier drainage by topography, leaving the remainder of Redoubt's ice mantle relatively unaffected. The rate of ice loss averaged around 0.1 m3/s over the last four months of 2008, accelerated to over twenty times this value by February 2009, and peaked at greater than 22 m3/s, just prior to the first major explosion on March 22, 2009. We estimate a cumulative ice loss over this period of about 35 million cubic meters (M m3).

Correction of Age-Related Midface Volume Loss With Low-Volume Hyaluronic Acid Filler.

PubMed

Wilson, Monique Vanaman; Fabi, Sabrina Guillen; Greene, Ryan

2017-03-01

The pivotal approval trial for a smooth, highly cohesive, viscous, 20-mg/mL hyaluronic acid filler demonstrated sustained aesthetic improvement, with a mean injection volume of 6.65 mL. In daily practice, however, it is not often practical or necessary to use large injection volumes to achieve the desired cosmetic outcome. To assess the efficacy, longevity, and patient satisfaction associated with correction of age-related midface volume loss using the low volumes of hyaluronic acid filler more commonly used in day-to-day practice. A 2-center, retrospective cohort study examined medical records of 61 healthy patients who underwent treatment for facial volume loss with hyaluronic acid filler from November 1, 2013, through April 31, 2014. Follow-up visits were conducted at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after the procedure. Data were pooled from a private facial plastic surgery practice in Weston, Florida, and a private cosmetic dermatology practice in San Diego, California. Patients were treated with hyaluronic acid filler according to the investigator's usual practices. The main outcome measure was patient-graded Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale scores at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment. Scores range from 1 to 5; 1 indicates very much improved and 5, worse. A total of 61 consecutive, healthy adult patients (mean [SD] age, 57.4 [12.8] years) with mild to severe facial volume loss were enrolled in the study. A total of 46 patients (75%) were white, 3 (5%) were black/African American, 9 (15%) were Hispanic/Latino, 1 (2%) was Asian/Pacific Islander, and 2 (3%) were other. Three patients (5%) were male, and 58 (95%) were female. Mean initial treatment volume was 1.6 mL. At follow-up, 29 patients (48%) elected to have a touch-up treatment; mean total touch-up volume was 1.4 mL. The patient-graded Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale scores at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after treatment demonstrated that 73% (41 of 56) to 89% (24 of 27) of the study patients reported being very

Arctic ice cover, ice thickness and tipping points.

PubMed

Wadhams, Peter

2012-02-01

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3-4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km(2). Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a 'tipping point' in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Karina; Khan, Shfaqat A.; Spada, Giorgio; Wahr, John; Bevis, Michael; Liu, Lin; van Dam, Tonie

2013-04-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal surface displacements from 2006 to 2012 at four GPS sites located between ˜5 and ˜150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) in west Greenland. Horizontal displacements during 2006-2010 at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed toward north-west, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is located near the frontal portion of JI. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modeled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006, 2009, and 2010. However, horizontal displacements during 2010-2012 at KAGA and ILUL are directed more towards the west suggesting a change in the spatial distribution of the ice mass loss. In addition, we observe an increase in the uplift rate during 2010-2012 as compared to 2006-2010. The sudden change in vertical and horizontal displacements is due to enhanced melt-induced ice loss in 2010 and 2012.

Quantifying Standing Dead Tree Volume and Structural Loss with Voxelized Terrestrial Lidar Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, S. C.; Putman, E.

2017-12-01

Standing dead trees (SDTs) are an important forest component and impact a variety of ecosystem processes, yet the carbon pool dynamics of SDTs are poorly constrained in terrestrial carbon cycling models. The ability to model wood decay and carbon cycling in relation to detectable changes in tree structure and volume over time would greatly improve such models. The overall objective of this study was to provide automated aboveground volume estimates of SDTs and automated procedures to detect, quantify, and characterize structural losses over time with terrestrial lidar data. The specific objectives of this study were: 1) develop an automated SDT volume estimation algorithm providing accurate volume estimates for trees scanned in dense forests; 2) develop an automated change detection methodology to accurately detect and quantify SDT structural loss between subsequent terrestrial lidar observations; and 3) characterize the structural loss rates of pine and oak SDTs in southeastern Texas. A voxel-based volume estimation algorithm, "TreeVolX", was developed and incorporates several methods designed to robustly process point clouds of varying quality levels. The algorithm operates on horizontal voxel slices by segmenting the slice into distinct branch or stem sections then applying an adaptive contour interpolation and interior filling process to create solid reconstructed tree models (RTMs). TreeVolX estimated large and small branch volume with an RMSE of 7.3% and 13.8%, respectively. A voxel-based change detection methodology was developed to accurately detect and quantify structural losses and incorporated several methods to mitigate the challenges presented by shifting tree and branch positions as SDT decay progresses. The volume and structural loss of 29 SDTs, composed of Pinus taeda and Quercus stellata, were successfully estimated using multitemporal terrestrial lidar observations over elapsed times ranging from 71 - 753 days. Pine and oak structural loss rates

Cumulates, Dykes and Pressure Solution in the Ice-Salt Mantle of Europa: Geological Consequences of Pressure Dependent Liquid Compositions and Volume Changes During Ice-Salt Melting Reactions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S.; Asphaug, E.; Bruesch, L.

2002-12-01

Water-salt analogue experiments used to investigate cumulate processes in silicate magmas, along with observations of sea ice and ice shelf behaviour, indicate that crystal-melt separation in water-salt systems is a rapid and efficient process even on scales of millimetres and minutes. Squeezing-out of residual melts by matrix compaction is also predicted to be rapid on geological timescales. We predict that the ice-salt mantle of Europa is likely to be strongly stratified, with a layered structure predictable from density and phase relationships between ice polymorphs, aqueous saline solutions and crystalline salts such as hydrated magnesium sulphates (determined experimentally by, inter alia, Hogenboom et al). A surface layer of water ice flotation cumulate will be separated from denser salt cumulates by a cotectic horizon. This cotectic horizon will be both the site of subsequent lowest-temperature melting and a level of neutral buoyancy for the saline melts produced. Initial melting will be in a narrow depth range owing to increasing melting temperature with decreasing pressure: the phase relations argue against direct melt-though to the surface unless vesiculation occurs. Overpressuring of dense melts due to volume expansion on cotectic melting is predicted to lead to lateral dyke emplacement and extension above the dyke tips. Once the liquid leaves the cotectic, melting of water ice will involve negative volume change. Impact-generated melts will drain downwards through the fractured zones beneath crater floors. A feature in the complex crater Mannan'an, with elliptical ring fractures around a conical depression with a central pit, bears a close resemblance to Icelandic glacier collapse cauldrons produced by subglacial eruptions. Other structures resembling Icelandic cauldrons occur along Europan banded structures, while resurgence of ice rubble within collapse structures may produce certain types of chaos region. More general contraction of the ice mantle

Maxillomandibular Volume Influences the Relationship between Weight Loss and Improvement in Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Kate; Phillips, Craig L.; Yee, Brendon J.; Grunstein, Ronald R.; Cistulli, Peter A.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Obesity is the major risk factor for OSA; however, weight loss reduces OSA to a variable extent. We aimed to assess whether size of the maxillomandibular skeletal enclosure influences the relationship between weight loss and OSA reduction. Methods: Obese males (≥ 30 kg/m2) with moderate-severe OSA (AHI > 15/h) participating in a 6-mo open-label weight loss program had craniofacial computed tomography (CT) scans before and after weight loss. CT scans were analysed using three-dimensional cephalometry. Maxillomandibular volume was calculated from skeletal landmarks on the mandible (condyle, gonion, menton) and maxilla (anterior nasal spine). Multiple regression analysis was used to test for moderating effects of maxillomandibular volume on relationship between changes in weight and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Results: Fifty-two men (age 44.3 ± 8.8 y, AHI 42.9 ± 21.3 events/h, body mass index [BMI] 34.0 ± 2.7 kg/m2) had 7.4 ± 4.1% weight loss and 34.1 ± 32.4% AHI reduction at 6 months. BMI reduction modestly predicted AHI change (r2 = 0.17, P = 0.002). The interaction term of maxillomandibular volume and BMI change was a predictor of OSA improvement (P = 0.03), indicating maxillomandibular volume moderates this relationship. Subgroup analyses of patients by small, medium, and large maxillomandibular volume showed a strong correlation between weight loss and OSA improvement only in the small volume group (r = 0.654, P = 0.004). There was no relationship evident in those with large maxillomandibular volume (r = 0.05, P = 0.9). Conclusion: Maxillomandibular volume influences the relationship between weight loss and OSA improvement with an effect on AHI more evident in those with a smaller craniofacial skeleton. Citation: Sutherland K, Phillips CL, Yee BJ, Grunstein RR, Cistulli PA. Maxillomandibular volume influences the relationship between weight loss and improvement in obstructive sleep apnea. SLEEP 2016;39(1):43–49. PMID:26350470

Observed platelet ice distributions in Antarctic sea ice: An index for ocean-ice shelf heat flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhorne, P. J.; Hughes, K. G.; Gough, A. J.; Smith, I. J.; Williams, M. J. M.; Robinson, N. J.; Stevens, C. L.; Rack, W.; Price, D.; Leonard, G. H.; Mahoney, A. R.; Haas, C.; Haskell, T. G.

2015-07-01

Antarctic sea ice that has been affected by supercooled Ice Shelf Water (ISW) has a unique crystallographic structure and is called platelet ice. In this paper we synthesize platelet ice observations to construct a continent-wide map of the winter presence of ISW at the ocean surface. The observations demonstrate that, in some regions of coastal Antarctica, supercooled ISW drives a negative oceanic heat flux of -30 Wm-2 that persists for several months during winter, significantly affecting sea ice thickness. In other regions, particularly where the thinning of ice shelves is believed to be greatest, platelet ice is not observed. Our new data set includes the longest ice-ocean record for Antarctica, which dates back to 1902 near the McMurdo Ice Shelf. These historical data indicate that, over the past 100 years, any change in the volume of very cold surface outflow from this ice shelf is less than the uncertainties in the measurements.

Water, ice and mud: Lahars and lahar hazards at ice- and snow-clad volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.

2014-01-01

Large-volume lahars are significant hazards at ice and snow covered volcanoes. Hot eruptive products produced during explosive eruptions can generate a substantial volume of melt water that quickly evolves into highly mobile flows of ice, sediment and water. At present it is difficult to predict the size of lahars that can form at ice and snow covered volcanoes due to their complex flow character and behaviour. However, advances in experiments and numerical approaches are producing new conceptual models and new methods for hazard assessment. Eruption triggered lahars that are ice-dominated leave behind thin, almost unrecognizable sedimentary deposits, making them likely to be under-represented in the geological record.

Characterizing Arctic Sea Ice Topography Using High-Resolution IceBridge Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, Alek; Tsamados, Michel; Kurtz, Nathan; Farrell, Sinead; Newman, Thomas; Harbeck, Jeremy; Feltham, Daniel; Richter-Menge, Jackie

2016-01-01

We present an analysis of Arctic sea ice topography using high resolution, three-dimensional, surface elevation data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper, flown as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a newly developed surface feature picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, volume and geometry of surface features from 2009-2014 within the Beaufort/Chukchi and Central Arctic regions. The results are delineated by ice type to estimate the topographic variability across first-year and multi-year ice regimes.

Cigarette smoking is associated with amplified age-related volume loss in subcortical brain regions.

PubMed

Durazzo, Timothy C; Meyerhoff, Dieter J; Yoder, Karmen K; Murray, Donna E

2017-08-01

Magnetic resonance imaging studies of cigarette smoking-related effects on human brain structure have primarily employed voxel-based morphometry, and the most consistently reported finding was smaller volumes or lower density in anterior frontal regions and the insula. Much less is known about the effects of smoking on subcortical regions. We compared smokers and non-smokers on regional subcortical volumes, and predicted that smokers demonstrate greater age-related volume loss across subcortical regions than non-smokers. Non-smokers (n=43) and smokers (n=40), 22-70 years of age, completed a 4T MRI study. Bilateral total subcortical lobar white matter (WM) and subcortical nuclei volumes were quantitated via FreeSurfer. In smokers, associations between smoking severity measures and subcortical volumes were examined. Smokers demonstrated greater age-related volume loss than non-smokers in the bilateral subcortical lobar WM, thalamus, and cerebellar cortex, as well as in the corpus callosum and subdivisions. In smokers, higher pack-years were associated with smaller volumes of the bilateral amygdala, nucleus accumbens, total corpus callosum and subcortical WM. Results provide novel evidence that chronic smoking in adults is associated with accelerated age-related volume loss in subcortical WM and GM nuclei. Greater cigarette quantity/exposure was related to smaller volumes in regions that also showed greater age-related volume loss in smokers. Findings suggest smoking adversely affected the structural integrity of subcortical brain regions with increasing age and exposure. The greater age-related volume loss in smokers may have implications for cortical-subcortical structural and/or functional connectivity, and response to available smoking cessation interventions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be

Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

2013-01-01

During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

Kinetics of water loss and the likelihood of intracellular freezing in mouse ova

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazur, P.; Rall, W.F.; Leibo, S.P.

To avoid intracellular freezing and its usually lethal consequences, cells must lose their freezable water before reaching their ice-nucleation temperature. One major factor determining the rate of water loss is the temperature dependence of water permeability, L/sub p/ (hydraulic conductivity). Because of the paucity of water permeability measurements at subzero temperatures, that temperature dependence has usually been extrapolated from above-zero measurements. The extrapolation has often been based on an exponential dependence of L/sub p/ on temperature. This paper compares the kinetics of water loss based on that extrapolation with that based on an Arrhenius relation between L/sub p/ and temperature,more » and finds substantial differences below -20 to -25/sup 0/C. Since the ice-nucleation temperature of mouse ova in the cryoprotectants DMSO and glycerol is usually below -30/sup 0/C, the Arrhenius form of the water-loss equation was used to compute the extent of supercooling in ova cooled at rates between 1 and 8/sup 0/C/min and the consequent likelihood of intracellular freezing. The predicted likelihood agrees well with that previously observed. The water-loss equation was also used to compute the volumes of ova as a function of cooling rate and temperature. The computed cell volumes agree qualitatively with previously observed volumes, but differed quantitatively. 25 references, 5 figures, 3 tables.« less

Oceanic and atmospheric forcing of Larsen C Ice-Shelf thinning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, P. R.; Brisbourne, A.; Corr, H. F. J.; Mcgrath, Daniel; Purdon, K.; Paden, J.; Fricker, H. A.; Paolo, F. S.; Fleming, A.H.

2015-01-01

The catastrophic collapses of Larsen A and B ice shelves on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula have caused their tributary glaciers to accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise and freshening the Antarctic Bottom Water formed nearby. The surface of Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS), the largest ice shelf on the peninsula, is lowering. This could be caused by unbalanced ocean melting (ice loss) or enhanced firn melting and compaction (englacial air loss). Using a novel method to analyse eight radar surveys, this study derives separate estimates of ice and air thickness changes during a 15-year period. The uncertainties are considerable, but the primary estimate is that the surveyed lowering (0.066 ± 0.017 m yr−1) is caused by both ice loss (0.28 ± 0.18 m yr−1) and firn-air loss (0.037 ± 0.026 m yr−1). The ice loss is much larger than the air loss, but both contribute approximately equally to the lowering because the ice is floating. The ice loss could be explained by high basal melting and/or ice divergence, and the air loss by low surface accumulation or high surface melting and/or compaction. The primary estimate therefore requires that at least two forcings caused the surveyed lowering. Mechanisms are discussed by which LCIS stability could be compromised in the future. The most rapid pathways to collapse are offered by the ungrounding of LCIS from Bawden Ice Rise or ice-front retreat past a "compressive arch" in strain rates. Recent evidence suggests that either mechanism could pose an imminent risk.

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Li, Jun; Benner, Anita C.; Beckley, Matthew; Cornejo, Helen G.; DiMarzio, John; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Robbins, John; Saba, Jack L.;

Impact of APOE4-CSF Aβ interaction on hippocampal volume loss over 1 year in MCI

PubMed Central

Chiang, G.C.; Insel, P.S.; Tosun, D.; Schuff, N.; Truran-Sacrey, D.; Raptentsetsang, S.T.; Thompson, P.M.; Reiman, E.M.; Jack, C.R.; Fox, N.C.; Jagust, W.J.; Harvey, D.J.; Beckett, L.A.; Gamst, A.; Aisen, P.S.; Petersen, R.C.; Weiner, M.W.

2011-01-01

Background The majority of studies relating amyloid pathology with brain volumes have been cross-sectional. Apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4), a genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), is also associated with hippocampal volume loss. No studies have considered the effects of amyloid pathology and APOE4 together on longitudinal volume loss. Methods We evaluated whether an abnormal level of cerebrospinal fluid beta-amyloid (CSF Aβ) and APOE4 carrier status were independently associated with greater hippocampal volume loss over 1 year. We then assessed whether APOE4 status and CSF Aβ acted synergistically, testing the significance of an interaction term in the regression analysis. We included 297 participants: 77 cognitively normal (NC), 144 with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 76 with AD. Results An abnormal CSF Aβ level was found to be associated with greater hippocampal volume loss over 1 year in each group. APOE4 was associated with hippocampal volume loss only in the NC and MCI groups. APOE4 carriers with abnormal CSF Aβ in the MCI group acted synergistically to produce disproportionately greater volume loss than noncarriers. Conclusion Baseline CSF Aβ predicts progression of hippocampal volume loss. APOE4 carrier status amplifies the degree of neurodegeneration in MCI. Understanding the effect of interactions between genetic risk and amyloid pathology will be important in clinical trials and our understanding of the disease process. PMID:21889115

Expanded secondary craters in the Arcadia Planitia region, Mars: evidence for tens of Myr-old shallow subsurface ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Viola, Donna; McEwen, Alfred S.; Dundas, Colin M.; Byrne, Shane

2015-01-01

A range of observations indicates widespread subsurface ice throughout the mid and high latitudes of Mars in the form of both pore-filling and excess ice. It is generally thought that this ice was recently emplaced and is not older than a hundred thousand to a few millions of years old based on ice stability and orbital-induced climate change. We analyze the distribution of subsurface ice in Arcadia Planitia, located in the northern mid latitudes, by mapping thermokarstically expanded secondary craters, providing additional evidence for extensive excess ice down to fairly low latitudes (less than 40°N). We further infer the minimum age of this subsurface ice based on the ages of the four primary craters that are thought to be the source of a large portion of these secondaries, which yields estimates on the order of tens of millions of years old – much more ancient than anticipated. This estimated ancient age suggests that ice can be preserved in the shallow subsurface for long periods of time, at least in some parts of Arcadia Planitia where expanded secondary craters are especially abundant. We estimate the amount of ice lost to sublimation during crater expansion based on measurements of expanded secondary craters in HiRISE Digital Terrain Models. The loss is equivalent to a volume of ice between ∼140 and 360 km3, which would correspond to a global layer of 1–2.5 mm thick. We further argue that much more ice (at least 6000 km3) is likely preserved beneath the un-cratered regions of Arcadia Planitia since significant loss of this excess ice would have caused extensive terrain dissection and the removal of the expanded secondary craters. Both the loss of ice due to secondary crater expansion and the presence of this ice today have implications for the martian climate.

The Effect of Ice Formations on Propeller Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neel, C. B., Jr.; Bright, L. G.

1950-01-01

Measurements of propeller efficiency loss due to ice formation are supplemented by an analysis to establish the magnitude of efficiency losses to be anticipated during flight in icing conditions. The measurements were made during flight in natural icing conditions; whereas the analysis consisted of an investIgation of changes in blade-section aerodynamic characteristics caused by ice formation and the resulting propeller efficiency changes. Agreement in the order of magnitude of eff 1- ciency losses to be expected is obtained between measured and analytical results. The results indicate that, in general, efficiency losses can be expected to be less than 10 percent; whereas maximum losses, which will be encountered only rarely, may be as high as 15 or 20 percent. Reported. losses larger than 15 or 20 percent, based on reductions in airplane performance, probably are due to ice accretions on other parts of the airplane. Blade-element theory is used in the analytical treatment, and calculations are made to show the degree to which the aerodynamic characteristics of a blade section. must be altered to produce various propeller efficiency losses. The effects of ice accretions on airfoil-section characteristics at subcritical speeds and their influence on drag-divergence Mach number are examined, and. the attendant maximum efficiency losses are computed. The effect of kinetic heating on the radial extent of ice formation is considered, and its influence on required length of blade heating shoes is discussed. It is demonstrated how the efficiency loss resulting from an icing encounter is influenced by the decisions of the pilot in adjusting the engine and propeller controls.

The role of ice shelves in the Holocene evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Thomas, Maik

2014-05-01

Using the continental-scale ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]), we assess the influence of ice shelves on the Holocene evolution and present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice sheet. We have designed a series of paleoclimate simulations driven by a time-evolved climate forcing that couples the surface temperature record from the Vostok ice core with precipitation pattern using an empirical relation of Dahl-Jensen et al., (1998) [3]. Our numerical experiments show that the geometry of ice shelves is determined by the evolution of climate and ocean conditions over time scales of 15 to 25 kyr. This implies that the initial configuration of ice shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 21 kyr before present) has a significant effect on the modelled Early Holocene volume of ice shelves (up to 20%) that gradually diminishes to a negligible level for the present-day ice shelf configuration. Thus, the present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice shelves can be attained even if an ice-shelf-free initial condition is chosen at the LGM. However, the grounded ice volume, thickness and dynamic states are found to be sensitive to the ice shelf dynamics over a longer history spanning several tens of thousands of years. A presence of extensive marine ice at the LGM, supported by sediment core reconstructions (e.g. Naish et al., 2009 [4]), has a clear buttressing effect on the grounded ice that remains significant over a period of 30 to 50 kyr. If ice-shelf-free conditions are prescribed at the LGM, the modelled Early Holocene and present-day grounded ice volumes are underestimated by up to 10%, as opposed to simulations incorporating ice shelf dynamics over longer periods. The use of ice-shelf-free LGM conditions thus results in 50 to over 200 meters thinner ice sheet across much of East Antarctica. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to

The Arctic-Subarctic Sea Ice System is Entering a Seasonal Regime: Implications for Future Arctic Amplication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haine, T. W. N.; Martin, T.

2017-12-01

The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X during the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

OBJECTIVES • What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea Seasonal Ice Zone (SIZ) and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge...retreats? Recent observations suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest...surrounding ice . Recent analyses have indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Detection of low-volume blood loss: compensatory reserve versus traditional vital signs.

PubMed

Stewart, Camille L; Mulligan, Jane; Grudic, Greg Z; Convertino, Victor A; Moulton, Steven L

2014-12-01

Humans are able to compensate for low-volume blood loss with minimal change in traditional vital signs. We hypothesized that a novel algorithm, which analyzes photoplethysmogram (PPG) wave forms to continuously estimate compensatory reserve would provide greater sensitivity and specificity to detect low-volume blood loss compared with traditional vital signs. The compensatory reserve index (CRI) is a measure of the reserve remaining to compensate for reduced central blood volume, where a CRI of 1 represents supine normovolemia and 0 represents the circulating blood volume at which hemodynamic decompensation occurs; values between 1 and 0 indicate the proportion of reserve remaining. Subjects underwent voluntary donation of 1 U (approximately 450 mL) of blood. Demographic and continuous noninvasive vital sign wave form data were collected, including PPG, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, cardiac output, and stroke volume. PPG wave forms were later processed by the algorithm to estimate CRI values. Data were collected from 244 healthy subjects (79 males and 165 females), with a mean (SD) age of 40.1 (14.2) years and mean (SD) body mass index of 25.6 (4.7). After blood donation, CRI significantly decreased in 92% (α = 0.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 88-95%) of the subjects. With the use of a threshold decrease in CRI of 0.05 or greater for the detection of 1 U of blood loss, the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.90, with a sensitivity of 0.84 and specificity of 0.86. In comparison, systolic blood pressure (52%; 95% CI, 45-59%), heart rate (65%; 95% CI, 58-72%), cardiac output (47%; 95% CI, 40-54%), and stroke volume (74%; 95% CI, 67-80%) changed in fewer subjects, had significantly lower receiver operating characteristic area under the curve values, and significantly lower specificities for detecting the same volume of blood loss. Consistent with our hypothesis, CRI detected low-volume blood loss with significantly greater

Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations.

PubMed

Naish, T; Powell, R; Levy, R; Wilson, G; Scherer, R; Talarico, F; Krissek, L; Niessen, F; Pompilio, M; Wilson, T; Carter, L; DeConto, R; Huybers, P; McKay, R; Pollard, D; Ross, J; Winter, D; Barrett, P; Browne, G; Cody, R; Cowan, E; Crampton, J; Dunbar, G; Dunbar, N; Florindo, F; Gebhardt, C; Graham, I; Hannah, M; Hansaraj, D; Harwood, D; Helling, D; Henrys, S; Hinnov, L; Kuhn, G; Kyle, P; Läufer, A; Maffioli, P; Magens, D; Mandernack, K; McIntosh, W; Millan, C; Morin, R; Ohneiser, C; Paulsen, T; Persico, D; Raine, I; Reed, J; Riesselman, C; Sagnotti, L; Schmitt, D; Sjunneskog, C; Strong, P; Taviani, M; Vogel, S; Wilch, T; Williams, T

2009-03-19

Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch ( approximately 5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, approximately 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to approximately 3 degrees C warmer than today and atmospheric CO(2) concentration was as high as approximately 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt under conditions of elevated CO(2).

Ice pack heat sink subsystem - Phase 1, Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roebelen, G. J., Jr.

1973-01-01

The design, development, fabrication, and test at one-g of a functional laboratory model (non-flight) ice pack heat sink subsystem to be used eventually for astronaut cooling during manned space missions are discussed. In normal use, excess heat in the liquid cooling garment (LCG) coolant is transferred to a reusable/regenerable ice pack heat sink. For emergency operation, or for extension of extravehicular activity mission time after all the ice has melted, water from the ice pack is boiled to vacuum, thereby continuing to remove heat from the LCG coolant. This subsystem incorporates a quick connect/disconnect thermal interface between the ice pack heat sink and the subsystem heat exchanger.

Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with arctic sea ice loss?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crasemann, Berit; Handorf, Dörthe; Jaiser, Ralf; Dethloff, Klaus; Nakamura, Tetsu; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

2017-12-01

In the framework of atmospheric circulation regimes, we study whether the recent Arctic sea ice loss and Arctic Amplification are associated with changes in the frequency of occurrence of preferred atmospheric circulation patterns during the extended winter season from December to March. To determine regimes we applied a cluster analysis to sea-level pressure fields from reanalysis data and output from an atmospheric general circulation model. The specific set up of the two analyzed model simulations for low and high ice conditions allows for attributing differences between the simulations to the prescribed sea ice changes only. The reanalysis data revealed two circulation patterns that occur more frequently for low Arctic sea ice conditions: a Scandinavian blocking in December and January and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern in February and March. An analysis of related patterns of synoptic-scale activity and 2 m temperatures provides a synoptic interpretation of the corresponding large-scale regimes. The regimes that occur more frequently for low sea ice conditions are resembled reasonably well by the model simulations. Based on those results we conclude that the detected changes in the frequency of occurrence of large-scale circulation patterns can be associated with changes in Arctic sea ice conditions.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa

2017-01-01

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate–ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland’s contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9–7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1–3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely. PMID:28681860

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa

2017-07-01

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ~7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa

2017-07-06

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.

Grey matter volume loss is associated with specific clinical motor signs in Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Coppen, Emma M; Jacobs, Milou; van den Berg-Huysmans, Annette A; van der Grond, Jeroen; Roos, Raymund A C

2018-01-01

Motor disturbances are clinical hallmarks of Huntington's disease (HD) and involve chorea, dystonia, hypokinesia and visuomotor dysfunction. Investigating the association between specific motor signs and different regional volumes is important to understand the heterogeneity of HD. To investigate the motor phenotype of HD and associations with subcortical and cortical grey matter volume loss. Structural T1-weighted MRI scans of 79 HD patients and 30 healthy controls were used to calculate volumes of seven subcortical structures including the nucleus accumbens, hippocampus, thalamus, caudate nucleus, putamen, pallidum and amygdala. Multiple linear regression analyses, corrected for age, gender, CAG, MRI scan protocol and normalized brain volume, were performed to assess the relationship between subcortical volumes and different motor subdomains (i.e. eye movements, chorea, dystonia, hypokinesia/rigidity and gait/balance). Voxel-based morphometry analysis was used to investigate the relationship between cortical volume changes and motor signs. Subcortical volume loss of the accumbens nucleus, caudate nucleus, putamen, and pallidum were associated with higher chorea scores. No other subcortical region was significantly associated with motor symptoms after correction for multiple comparisons. Voxel-based cortical grey matter volume reductions in occipital regions were related with an increase in eye movement scores. In HD, chorea is mainly associated with subcortical volume loss, while eye movements are more related to cortical volume loss. Both subcortical and cortical degeneration has an impact on motor impairment in HD. This implies that there is a widespread contribution of different brain regions resulting in the clinical motor presentation seen in HD patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Pliocene sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

PRISM3).Use of these different SSTswithin theHadley CentreGCM(GeneralCirculationModel) and BASISM (BritishAntarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model), consistently show large reductions of Pliocene Greenland ice volumes compared to modern. The changes in climate introduced by the use of different SST reconstructions do change the predicted ice volumes, mainly through precipitation feedbacks. However, the models show a relatively low sensitivity of modelled Greenland ice volumes to different mid-Piacenzian SST reconstructions, with the largest SST induced changes being 20% of Pliocene ice volume or less than a metre of sea-level rise.

Acquisition of Ice Thickness and Ice Surface Characteristics in the Seasonal Ice Zone by CULPIS-X During the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Domain Awareness Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

What is the volume of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea SIZ and how does this evolve during summer as the ice edge retreats? Recent observations...suggest that the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea is younger and thinner in recent years in part because even the oldest ice advected into the region does...indicated that ponds on thinner ice are often darker, accelerating the ice - albedo feedback over thin ice in summer. During winter, leads and very

Icing flight research: Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes was obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft darg coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (C sub d) of 0.5.

Icing flight research - Aerodynamic effects of ice and ice shape documentation with stereo photography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mikkelsen, K. L.; Mcknight, R. C.; Ranaudo, R. J.; Perkins, P. J., Jr.

1985-01-01

Aircraft icing flight research was performed in natural icing conditions. A data base consisting of icing cloud measurements, ice shapes, and aerodynamic measurements is being developed. During research icing encounters the icing cloud was continuously measured. After the encounter, the ice accretion shapes on the wing were documented with a stereo camera system. The increase in wing section drag was measured with a wake survey probe. The overall aircraft performance loss in terms of lift and drag coefficient changes were obtained by steady level speed/power measurements. Selective deicing of the airframe components was performed to determine their contributions to the total drag increase. Engine out capability in terms of power available was analyzed for the iced aircraft. It was shown that the stereo photography system can be used to document ice shapes in flight and that the wake survey probe can measure increases in wing section drag caused by ice. On one flight, the wing section drag coefficient (c sub d) increased approximately 120 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft angle of attack of 6 deg. On another flight, the aircraft drag coefficient (c sub d) increased by 75 percent over the uniced baseline at an aircraft lift coefficient (c sub d) of 0.5.

Seasonal Study of Mercury Species in the Antarctic Sea Ice Environment.

PubMed

Nerentorp Mastromonaco, Michelle G; Gårdfeldt, Katarina; Langer, Sarka; Dommergue, Aurélien

2016-12-06

Limited studies have been conducted on mercury concentrations in the polar cryosphere and the factors affecting the distribution of mercury within sea ice and snow are poorly understood. Here we present the first comprehensive seasonal study of elemental and total mercury concentrations in the Antarctic sea ice environment covering data from measurements in air, sea ice, seawater, snow, frost flowers, and brine. The average concentration of total mercury in sea ice decreased from winter (9.7 ng L -1 ) to spring (4.7 ng L -1 ) while the average elemental mercury concentration increased from winter (0.07 ng L -1 ) to summer (0.105 ng L -1 ). The opposite trends suggest potential photo- or dark oxidation/reduction processes within the ice and an eventual loss of mercury via brine drainage or gas evasion of elemental mercury. Our results indicate a seasonal variation of mercury species in the polar sea ice environment probably due to varying factors such as solar radiation, temperature, brine volume, and atmospheric deposition. This study shows that the sea ice environment is a significant interphase between the polar ocean and the atmosphere and should be accounted for when studying how climate change may affect the mercury cycle in polar regions.

Sea Ice on the Southern Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, Stanley S.

1998-01-01

Year-round satellite records of sea ice distribution now extend over more than two decades, providing a valuable tool to investigate related characteristics and circulations in the Southern Ocean. We have studied a variety of features indicative of oceanic and atmospheric interactions with Antarctic sea ice. In the Amundsen & Bellingshausen Seas, sea ice extent was found to have decreased by approximately 20% from 1973 through the early 1990's. This change coincided with and probably contributed to recently warmer surface conditions on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, where air temperatures have increased by approximately 0.5 C/decade since the mid-1940's. The sea ice decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length superimposed on high interannual variability. The retreat was strongest in summer, and would have lowered the regional mean ice thickness, with attendant impacts upon vertical heat flux and the formation of snow ice and brine. The cause of the regional warming and loss of sea ice is believed to be linked to large-scale circulation changes in the atmosphere and ocean. At the eastern end of the Weddell Gyre, the Cosmonaut Polyna revealed greater activity since 1986, a recurrence pattern during recent winters and two possible modes of formation. Persistence in polynya location was noted off Cape Ann, where the coastal current can interact more strongly with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. As a result of vorticity conservation, locally enhanced upwelling brings warmer deep water into the mixed layer, causing divergence and melting. In the Ross Sea, ice extent fluctuates over periods of several years, with summer minima and winter maxima roughly in phase. This leads to large interannual cycles of sea ice range, which correlate positively with meridinal winds, regional air temperatures and subsequent shelf water salinities. Deep shelf waters display considerable interannual variability, but have freshened by approximately 0.03/decade

Reemergence of sea ice cover anomalies and the role of the sea ice-albedo feedback in CCSM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deweaver, E. T.

2008-12-01

The dramatic sea ice decline of 2007 and lack of recovery in 2008 raise the question of a "tipping point" for Arctic sea ice, beyond which the transition to a seasonal sea ice state becomes abrupt and irreversible. The tipping point is essentially a "memory catastrophe", in which a dramatic loss of sea ice in one summer is "remembered" in reduced ice thickness over the winter season and leads to a comparably dramatic loss the following summer. The dominant contributor to this memory is presumably the sea ice - albedo feedback (SIAF), in which excess insolation absorbed due to low summer ice cover leads to a shorter ice growth season and hence thinner ice. While these dynamics are clearly important, they are difficult to quantify given the lack of long-term observations in the Arctic and the suddenness of the recent loss. Alternatively, we attempt to quantify the contribution of the SIAF to the year-to-year memory of sea ice cover anomalies in simulations of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under 20th century conditions. Lagged autocorrelation plots of sea ice area anomalies show that anomalies in one year tend to "reemerge" in the following year. Further experiments using a slab ocean model (SOM) are used to assess the contribution of oceanic processes to the year-to-year reemergence. This contribution is substantial, particularly in the winter season, and includes memory due to the standard mixed layer reemergence mechanism and low-frequency ocean heat transport anomalies. The contribution of the SIAF to persistence in the SOM experiment is determined through additional experiments in which the SIAF is disabled by fixing surface albedo to its climatological value regardless of sea ice concentration anomalies. SIAF causes a 50% increase in the magnitude of the anomalies but a relatively small increase in their persistence. Persistence is not dramatically increased because the enhancement of shortwave flux anomalies by SIAF is compensated by stronger

Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG): 2017 Observations and the First Look at Yearly Ocean/Ice Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.; Rignot, E. J.; Fenty, I. G.; Khazendar, A.; Moller, D.; Tinto, K. J.; Morison, J.; Schodlok, M.; Thompson, A. F.; Fukumori, I.; Holland, D.; Forsberg, R.; Jakobsson, M.; Dinardo, S. J.

2017-12-01

Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) is an airborne NASA Mission to investigate the role of the oceans in ice loss around the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet. A five-year campaign, OMG will directly measure ocean warming and glacier retreat around all of Greenland. By relating these two, we will explore one of the most pressing open questions about how climate change drives sea level rise: How quickly are the warming oceans melting the Greenland Ice Sheet from the edges? This year, OMG collected its second set of both elevation maps of marine terminating glaciers and ocean temperature and salinity profiles around all of Greenland. This give us our first look at year-to-year changes in both ice volume at the margins, as well as the volume and extent of warm, salty Atlantic water present on the continental shelf. In addition, we will compare recent data in east Greenland waters with historical ocean observations that suggest a long-term warming trend there. Finally, we will briefly review the multi-beam sonar and airborne gravity campaigns—both of which were completed last year—and the dramatic improvement they had on bathymetry maps over the continental shelf around Greenland.

Tract-Specific Volume Loss on 3T MRI in Patients with Cervical Spondylotic Myelopathy.

PubMed

Hopkins, Benjamin S; Weber, Kenneth A; Cloney, Michael Brendan; Paliwal, Monica; Parrish, Todd B; Smith, Zachary A

2018-04-11

Case-control. The aim of this study was to understand the role of high-resolution magnetic resonance (MR) in identifying regional cord volume loss in cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM). Preliminary studies suggest that compression of the ventral region of the cord may contribute disproportionately to CSM symptomology; however, tract-specific data are lacking in the CSM population. The current study is the first to use 3T MR imaging (MRI) images of CSM patients to determine specific volume loss at the level of detail of individual descending white matter tracts. Twelve patients with CSM and 14 age-matched were enrolled prospectively and underwent 3-Tesla MRI of the cervical spine. Using the high-resolution images of the spinal cord, straightening and alignment with a template was performed and specific spinal cord tract volumes were measured using Spinal Cord Tool-box version 3.0.7. Modified Japanese orthopedic association (mJOA) and Nurick disability scores were collected in a prospective manner and were analyzed in relation to descending spinal tract volumes. Having CSM was predicted by anterior/posterior diameter, eccentricity of the cord [odds ratio (OR) 0.000000621, P = 0.004], ventral reticulospinal tract volume (OR 1.167, P = 0.063), lateral corticospinal tract volume (OR 1.034, P = 0.046), rubrospinal tract volume (OR 1.072, P = 0.011), and ventrolateral reticulospinal tract volume (OR 1.474, P = 0.005) on single variable logistic regression. Single variable linear regression showed decreases in anterior/posterior spinal cord diameter (P = 0.022), ventral reticulospinal tract volumes (P = 0.007), and ventrolateral reticulospinal tract volumes (P = 0.017) to significantly predict worsening mJOA scores. Similarly, decreases in ventral reticulospinal tract volumes significantly predicted increasing Nurick scores (P = 0.039). High-resolution 3T MRI can detect tract-specific volume loss in descending spinal cord tracts in

North Atlantic Oscillation Drives Regional Greenland Glacier Volume During the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjork, A. A.; Aagaard, S.; Hallander, A. M.; Khan, S. A.; Box, J. E.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, N. K.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Cappelen, J.; Colgan, W. T.; Machguth, H.; Andresen, C. S.; Kjaer, K. H.

2016-12-01

While most areas of the Greenland ice sheet have undergone rapid mass loss since c. 1990, the central eastern section of the ice sheet has advanced and gained mass. This contrasting regional trend has been attributed to positive surface mass balance (SMB) in the absence of significant dynamic mass loss. To constrain the atypical behavior in this region, we mapped glacier length fluctuations of nearly 200 peripheral glaciers and ice caps (PGICs) over a 103-year period, and compare the results with c. 150 new glacier length records from central west Greenland. We demonstrate that the regional response in ice volume is closely correlated to changes in precipitation, governed by circulation patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and secondarily influenced by temperature forcing in certain periods. More broadly, we find that the NAO contributes to contrasting precipitation variability in East and West Greenland, where it appears to be responsible for at least 10% and more than 25%, respectively, of the variability in ice sheet accumulation rate. This east-west asymmetry, which influences both LGICs and the ice sheet, illustrates how substantial uncertainty in NAO projections directly contributes to uncertainty in mass balance projections.

Capillary ion chromatography with on-column focusing for ultra-trace analysis of methanesulfonate and inorganic anions in limited volume Antarctic ice core samples.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Estrella Sanz; Poynter, Sam; Curran, Mark; Haddad, Paul R; Shellie, Robert A; Nesterenko, Pavel N; Paull, Brett

2015-08-28

Preservation of ionic species within Antarctic ice yields a unique proxy record of the Earth's climate history. Studies have been focused until now on two proxies: the ionic components of sea salt aerosol and methanesulfonic acid. Measurement of the all of the major ionic species in ice core samples is typically carried out by ion chromatography. Former methods, whilst providing suitable detection limits, have been based upon off-column preconcentration techniques, requiring larger sample volumes, with potential for sample contamination and/or carryover. Here, a new capillary ion chromatography based analytical method has been developed for quantitative analysis of limited volume Antarctic ice core samples. The developed analytical protocol applies capillary ion chromatography (with suppressed conductivity detection) and direct on-column sample injection and focusing, thus eliminating the requirement for off-column sample preconcentration. This limits the total sample volume needed to 300μL per analysis, allowing for triplicate sample analysis with <1mL of sample. This new approach provides a reliable and robust analytical method for the simultaneous determination of organic and inorganic anions, including fluoride, methanesulfonate, chloride, sulfate and nitrate anions. Application to composite ice-core samples is demonstrated, with coupling of the capillary ion chromatograph to high resolution mass spectrometry used to confirm the presence and purity of the observed methanesulfonate peak. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Sea Ice Summer Camp: Bringing Together Arctic Sea Ice Modelers and Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic sea ice has undergone dramatic change and numerical models project this to continue for the foreseeable future. Understanding the mechanisms behind sea ice loss and its consequences for the larger Arctic and global systems is of critical importance if we are to anticipate and plan for the future. One impediment to progress is a disconnect between the observational and modeling communities. A sea ice summer camp was held in Barrow Alaska from 26 May to 1 June 2016 to overcome this impediment and better integrate the sea ice community. The 25 participants were a mix of modelers and observers from 13 different institutions at career stages from graduate student to senior scientist. The summer camp provided an accelerated program on sea ice observations and models and also fostered future collaborative interdisciplinary activities. Each morning was spent in the classroom with a daily lecture on an aspect of modeling or remote sensing followed by practical exercises. Topics included using models to assess sensitivity, to test hypotheses and to explore sources of uncertainty in future Arctic sea ice loss. The afternoons were spent on the ice making observations. There were four observational activities; albedo observations, ice thickness measurements, ice coring and physical properties, and ice morphology surveys. The last field day consisted of a grand challenge where the group formulated a hypothesis, developed an observational and modeling strategy to test the hypothesis, and then integrated the observations and model results. The impacts of changing sea ice are being felt today in Barrow Alaska. We opened a dialog with Barrow community members to further understand these changes. This included an evening discussion with two Barrow sea ice experts and a community presentation of our work in a public lecture at the Inupiat Heritage Center.

Everyday Engineering: Should Ice Be Cubed?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moyer, Richard H.; Everett, Susan A.

2012-01-01

While ice is usually referred to as ice cubes, indeed, most are not really cubes at all. In this 5E learning-cycle lesson, students will investigate different shapes of ice and how shape affects the speed of melting and the rate of cooling a glass of water. Students will compare three different shapes of ice with the same volume but different…

Ice Lens Formation and Frost Heave at the Phoenix Landing Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, A. P.; Sizemore, H. G.; Remple, A. W.

2011-01-01

Several lines of evidence indicate that the volume of shallow ground ice in the martian high latitudes exceeds the pore volume of the host regolith. Boynton et al. found an optimal fit to the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) data at the Phoenix landing site by modeling a buried layer of 50-75% ice by mass (up to 90% ice by volume). Thermal and optical observations of recent impact craters in the northern hemisphere have revealed nearly pure ice. Ice deposits containing only 1-2% soil by volume were excavated by Phoenix. The leading hypothesis for the origin of this excess ice is that it developed in situ by a mechanism analogous to the formation of terrestrial ice lenses and needle ice. Problematically, terrestrial soil-ice segregation is driven by freeze/thaw cycling and the movement of bulk water, neither of which are expected to have occurred in the geologically recent past on Mars. If however ice lens formation is possible at temperatures less than 273 K, there are possible implications for the habitability of Mars permafrost, since the same thin films of unfrozen water that lead to ice segregation are used by terrestrial psychrophiles to metabolize and grow down to temperatures of at least 258 K.

Discharge of New Subglacial Lake on Whillians Ice Stream: Implication for Ice Stream Flow Dynamics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, O. V.; Fricker, H. A.; Bindschadler, R. A.; Vornberger, P. L.; Macayeal, D. R.

2006-12-01

One of the surprise discoveries made possible by the ICESat laser altimeter mission of 2004-2006 is the presence of a large subglacial lake below the grounding zone of Whillians Ice Stream (dubbed here `Lake Helen' after the discoverer, Helen Fricker). What is even more surprising is the fact that this lake discharged a substantial portion of its volume during the ICESat mission, and changes in lake volume and surface elevation of the ice stream are documented in exquisite detail [Fricker et al., in press]. The presence and apparent dynamism of large subglacial lakes in the grounding zone of a major ice stream raises questions about their effects on ice-stream dynamics. Being liquid and movable, water modifies basal friction spatially and temporally. Melting due to shear heating and geothermal flux reduces basal traction, making the ice stream move fast. However, when water collects in a depression to form a lake, it potentially deprives the surrounding bed of lubricating water, and additionally makes the ice surface flat, thereby locally decreasing the ice stream driving stress. We study the effect of formation and discharge of a subglacial lake at the mouth of and ice stream using a two dimensional, vertically integrated, ice-stream model. The model is forced by the basal friction, ice thickness and surface elevation. The basal friction is obtained by inversion of the ice surface velocity, ice thickness and surface elevation come from observations. To simulate the lake formation we introduce zero basal friction and "inflate" the basal elevation of the ice stream at the site of the lake. Sensitivity studies of the response of the surrounding ice stream and ice shelf flow are performed to delineate the influence of near-grounding-line subglacial water storage for ice streams in general.

Sensitivity, stability and future evolution of the world's northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zekollari, Harry; Huybrechts, Philippe; Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2017-03-01

In this study the dynamics and sensitivity of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) to climatic forcing is investigated with a coupled ice flow-mass balance model. The surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated from a precipitation field obtained from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3), while runoff is calculated from a positive-degree-day runoff-retention model. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermomechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. A higher-order solution is needed to accurately represent the ice flow in the outlet glaciers. Under 1961-1990 climatic conditions a steady-state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater. The simulations indicate that the SMB-elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005-2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained, and the ice cap loses about 80 % of its present-day volume. The projected loss of surrounding permanent sea ice and resultant precipitation increase may attenuate the future mass loss but will be insufficient to preserve the present-day ice cap for most scenarios. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat, while the interior is projected to thicken, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate- (+4 °C) and high- warming scenarios (+8 °C) the ice cap is projected to disappear around AD 2400 and 2200 respectively, almost independent of the projected

The impact of dynamic topography on the bedrock elevation and volume of the Pliocene Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, Jacqueline; Pollard, David; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Moucha, Robert; Forte, Alessandro M.; DeConto, Robert M.

2015-04-01

Reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet over long timescales (i.e. Myrs) require estimates of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models have accounted, with varying levels of sophistication, for changes in the bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but they have neglected other processes that may perturb topography. One notable example is dynamic topography, the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow within the mantle. Numerically predicted changes in dynamic topography have been used to correct paleo shorelines for this departure from eustasy, but the effect of such changes on ice sheet stability is unknown. In this study we use numerical predictions of time-varying dynamic topography to reconstruct bedrock elevation below the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid Pliocene warm period (~3 Ma). Moreover, we couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates significant uplift in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the adjacent Wilkes basin. This predicted uplift, which is at the lower end of geological inferences of uplift of the TAM, implies a lower elevation of the basin in the Pliocene. Relative to simulations that do not include dynamic topography, the lower elevation leads to a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet volume and a more significant retreat of the grounding line in the Wilkes basin, both of which are consistent with offshore sediment core data. We conclude that reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period should be based on bedrock elevation models that include the impact of both GIA and dynamic topography.

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Arctic Ice Management: an integrated approach to climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desch, S. J.; Hartnett, H. E.; Groppi, C. E.; Romaniello, S. J.

2017-12-01

The warming climate is having the most rapid and pronounced effects in the high Arctic. The loss of Arctic sea ice is not only changing the physical oceanography of the Arctic Ocean and its coastlines; it is also promoting new conversations about the dangers and benefits for trade, transportation, and industry in the Arctic. The rate of decrease of summer sea ice in the Arctic is currently -300 km3 yr-1, a rate that will lead to complete loss of end-summer sea ice as soon as 2030. Preventing the strong positive feedbacks and increased warming due to sea ice albedo loss must be an important component of climate mitigation strategies. Here, we explore a direct engineering approach we call Arctic Ice Management (AIM) to reduce the loss of Arctic sea ice. We predict that pumping seawater onto the ice surface during the Arctic winter using wind-powered pumps can thicken sea ice by up to 1 m per year, reversing the current loss rates and prolonging the time until the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. Thickening sea ice would not change CO2 levels, which are the underlying cause of ice loss, but it would prevent some of the strongest feedbacks and would buy time to develop the tools and governance systems necessary to achieve carbon-neutrality. We advocate exploration of AIM as a mitigation strategy employed in parallel with CO2 reduction efforts. The opportunity and risk profiles of AIM differ from other geoengineering proposals. While similar in principle to solar radiation management, AIM may present fewer large-scale environmental risks. AIM is separate from greenhouse gas emission reduction or sequestration, but might help prevent accelerated release of methane from thawing permafrost. Further, AIM might be usefully employed at regional and local scales to preserve Arctic ecosystems and possibly reduce the effects of ice-loss induced coastal erosion. Through presentation of the AIM concept, we hope to spark new conversations between scientists, stakeholders, and decision

Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naish, T.; Powell, R.; Levy, R.; Wilson, G.; Scherer, R.; Talarico, F.; Krissek, L.; Niessen, F.; Pompilio, M.; Wilson, T.; Carter, L.; DeConto, R.; Huybers, P.; McKay, R.; Pollard, D.; Ross, J.; Winter, D.; Barrett, P.; Browne, G.; Cody, R.; Cowan, E.; Crampton, J.; Dunbar, G.; Dunbar, N.; Florindo, F.; Gebhardt, C.; Graham, I.; Hannah, M.; Hansaraj, D.; Harwood, D.; Helling, D.; Henrys, S.; Hinnov, L.; Kuhn, G.; Kyle, P.; Laufer, A.; Maffioli, P.; Magens, D.; Mandernack, K.; McIntosh, W.; Millan, C.; Morin, R.; Ohneiser, C.; Paulsen, T.; Persico, D.; Raine, I.; Reed, J.; Riesselman, C.; Sagnotti, L.; Schmitt, D.; Sjunneskog, C.; Strong, P.; Taviani, M.; Vogel, S.; Wilch, T.; Williams, T.

2009-01-01

Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages1, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles2. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch (5–3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming3. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to 3 °C warmer than today4 and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model7 that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt8 under conditions of elevated CO2.

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mark Torre Jorgenson,; Mikhail Kanevskiy,; Yuri Shur,; Natalia Moskalenko,; Dana Brown,; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Koch, Joshua C.

2015-01-01

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgenson, M. T.; Kanevskiy, M.; Shur, Y.; Moskalenko, N.; Brown, D. R. N.; Wickland, K.; Striegl, R.; Koch, J.

2015-11-01

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory: Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test using an obsolete Allied Signal ALF502-R5 engine in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The test article used was the exact engine that experienced a loss of power event after the ingestion of ice crystals while operating at high altitude during a 1997 Honeywell flight test campaign investigating the turbofan engine ice crystal icing phenomena. The test plan included test points conducted at the known flight test campaign field event pressure altitude and at various pressure altitudes ranging from low to high throughout the engine operating envelope. The test article experienced a loss of power event at each of the altitudes tested. For each pressure altitude test point conducted the ambient static temperature was predicted using a NASA engine icing risk computer model for the given ambient static pressure while maintaining the engine speed.

The Triglav Glacier (South-Eastern Alps, Slovenia): Volume Estimation, Internal Characterization and 2000-2013 Temporal Evolution by Means of Ground Penetrating Radar Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gobbo, Costanza; Colucci, Renato R.; Forte, Emanuele; Triglav Čekada, Michaela; Zorn, Matija

2016-08-01

It is well known that small glaciers of mid latitudes and especially those located at low altitude respond suddenly to climate changes both on local and global scale. For this reason their monitoring as well as evaluation of their extension and volume is essential. We present a ground penetrating radar (GPR) dataset acquired on September 23 and 24, 2013 on the Triglav glacier to identify layers with different characteristics (snow, firn, ice, debris) within the glacier and to define the extension and volume of the actual ice. Computing integrated and interpolated 3D using the whole GPR dataset, we estimate that at the moment of data acquisition the ice area was 3800 m2 and the ice volume 7400 m3. Its average thickness was 1.95 m while its maximum thickness was slightly more than 5 m. Here we compare the results with a previous GPR survey acquired in 2000. A critical review of the historical data to find the general trend and to forecast a possible evolution is also presented. Between 2000 and 2013, we observed relevant changes in the internal distribution of the different units (snow, firn, ice) and the ice volume reduced from about 35,000 m3 to about 7400 m3. Such result can be achieved only using multiple GPR surveys, which allow not only to assess the volume occupied by a glacial body, but also to image its internal structure and the actual ice volume. In fact, by applying one of the widely used empirical volume-area relations to infer the geometrical parameters of the glacier, a relevant underestimation of ice-loss would be achieved.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Accelerating ice loss from the fastest Greenland and Antarctic glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-05-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets - Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG)- continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km a-1 by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km a-1 after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea-level rise would average about 1.5 mm a-1.

Accelerating Ice Loss from the Fastest Greenland and Antarctic Glaciers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R.; Frederick, E.; Li, J.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Paden, J.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Yungel, J.

2011-01-01

Ice discharge from the fastest glaciers draining the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets . Jakobshavn Isbrae (JI) and Pine Island Glacier (PIG). continues to increase, and is now more than double that needed to balance snowfall in their catchment basins. Velocity increase probably resulted from decreased buttressing from thinning (and, for JI, breakup) of their floating ice tongues, and from reduced basal drag as grounding lines on both glaciers retreat. JI flows directly into the ocean as it becomes afloat, and here creep rates are proportional to the cube of bed depth. Rapid thinning of the PIG ice shelf increases the likelihood of its breakup, and subsequent rapid increase in discharge velocity. Results from a simple model indicate that JI velocities should almost double to >20 km/a by 2015, with velocities on PIG increasing to >10 km/a after breakup of its ice shelf. These high velocities would probably be sustained over many decades as the glaciers retreat within their long, very deep troughs. Resulting sea ]level rise would average about 1.5 mm/a.

Improved method for sea ice age computation based on combination of sea ice drift and concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korosov, Anton; Rampal, Pierre; Lavergne, Thomas; Aaboe, Signe

2017-04-01

Sea Ice Age is one of the components of the Sea Ice ECV as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) [WMO, 2015]. It is an important climate indicator describing the sea ice state in addition to sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT). The amount of old/thick ice in the Arctic Ocean has been decreasing dramatically [Perovich et al. 2015]. Kwok et al. [2009] reported significant decline in the MYI share and consequent loss of thickness and therefore volume. Today, there is only one acknowledged sea ice age climate data record [Tschudi, et al. 2015], based on Maslanik et al. [2011] provided by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) [http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0611-sea-ice-age/]. The sea ice age algorithm [Fowler et al., 2004] is using satellite-derived ice drift for Lagrangian tracking of individual ice parcels (12-km grid cells) defined by areas of sea ice concentration > 15% [Maslanik et al., 2011], i.e. sea ice extent, according to the NASA Team algorithm [Cavalieri et al., 1984]. This approach has several drawbacks. (1) Using sea ice extent instead of sea ice concentration leads to overestimation of the amount of older ice. (2) The individual ice parcels are not advected uniformly over (long) time. This leads to undersampling in areas of consistent ice divergence. (3) The end product grid cells are assigned the age of the oldest ice parcel within that cell, and the frequency distribution of the ice age is not taken into account. In addition, the base sea ice drift product (https://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0116_icemotion.gd.html) is known to exhibit greatly reduced accuracy during the summer season [Sumata et al 2014, Szanyi, 2016] as it only relies on a combination of sea ice drifter trajectories and wind-driven "free-drift" motion during summer. This results in a significant overestimate of old-ice content, incorrect shape of the old-ice pack, and lack of information about the ice age distribution within the grid cells. We

EM Bias-Correction for Ice Thickness and Surface Roughness Retrievals over Rough Deformed Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Gaiser, P. W.; Allard, R.; Posey, P. G.; Hebert, D. A.; Richter-Menge, J.; Polashenski, C. M.

2016-12-01

The very rough ridge sea ice accounts for significant percentage of total ice areas and even larger percentage of total volume. The commonly used Radar altimeter surface detection techniques are empirical in nature and work well only over level/smooth sea ice. Rough sea ice surfaces can modify the return waveforms, resulting in significant Electromagnetic (EM) bias in the estimated surface elevations, and thus large errors in the ice thickness retrievals. To understand and quantify such sea ice surface roughness effects, a combined EM rough surface and volume scattering model was developed to simulate radar returns from the rough sea ice `layer cake' structure. A waveform matching technique was also developed to fit observed waveforms to a physically-based waveform model and subsequently correct the roughness induced EM bias in the estimated freeboard. This new EM Bias Corrected (EMBC) algorithm was able to better retrieve surface elevations and estimate the surface roughness parameter simultaneously. In situ data from multi-instrument airborne and ground campaigns were used to validate the ice thickness and surface roughness retrievals. For the surface roughness retrievals, we applied this EMBC algorithm to co-incident LiDAR/Radar measurements collected during a Cryosat-2 under-flight by the NASA IceBridge missions. Results show that not only does the waveform model fit very well to the measured radar waveform, but also the roughness parameters derived independently from the LiDAR and radar data agree very well for both level and deformed sea ice. For sea ice thickness retrievals, validation based on in-situ data from the coordinated CRREL/NRL field campaign demonstrates that the physically-based EMBC algorithm performs fundamentally better than the empirical algorithm over very rough deformed sea ice, suggesting that sea ice surface roughness effects can be modeled and corrected based solely on the radar return waveforms.

Ice cream structural elements that affect melting rate and hardness.

PubMed

Muse, M R; Hartel, R W

2004-01-01

Statistical models were developed to reveal which structural elements of ice cream affect melting rate and hardness. Ice creams were frozen in a batch freezer with three types of sweetener, three levels of the emulsifier polysorbate 80, and two different draw temperatures to produce ice creams with a range of microstructures. Ice cream mixes were analyzed for viscosity, and finished ice creams were analyzed for air cell and ice crystal size, overrun, and fat destabilization. The ice phase volume of each ice cream were calculated based on the freezing point of the mix. Melting rate and hardness of each hardened ice cream was measured and correlated with the structural attributes by using analysis of variance and multiple linear regression. Fat destabilization, ice crystal size, and the consistency coefficient of the mix were found to affect the melting rate of ice cream, whereas hardness was influenced by ice phase volume, ice crystal size, overrun, fat destabilization, and the rheological properties of the mix.

30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.

2003-01-01

Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

Global glacier and ice sheet surface velocities derived from 31 years of Landsat imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2016-12-01

Glaciers and ice sheets are contributing substantial volumes of water to the world's oceans due to enhanced melt resulting from changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions and respective feedbacks. Improving understanding of the processes leading to accelerated rates of ice loss is necessary for reducing uncertainties sea level projections. One key to doing this is to assemble and analyze long records of glacier change that characterize grounded ice response to changes in driving stress, buttressing, and basal conditions. As part of the NASA funded GO_LIVE project we exploit 31 years of Landsat imagery to construct detailed time histories of global glacier velocities. Early exploration of the dataset reveals the diversity of information to be gleaned: sudden tidewater glacier speedups in the Antarctic Peninsula, rifting of Antarctic ice shelves, high variability in velocities near glacier grounding lines, frequent surge activity in the mountainous regions of Alaska and High Mountain Asia, and the slowdown of land-terminating valley glaciers in Arctic Canada and elsewhere.

Improved parameterization of marine ice dynamics and flow instabilities for simulation of the Austfonna ice cap using a large-scale ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Greve, R.; Schuler, T.; Hagen, J. M.; Navarro, F.; Vasilenko, E.; Reijmer, C.

2009-12-01

particular flow units. The measurements indicate that the gross volume of Austfonna is cold. This observation is supported by model results which suggest that regional fast flow occurs despite the lack of considerable temperate-ice volumes. This in turn indicates that fast flow is accomplished exclusively by basal motion in regions where the glacier base is at pressure-melting conditions, and not by enhanced deformation of considerable volumes of temperate ice.

Ice sheet topography by satellite altimetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, R.L.; Campbell, W.J.; Ramseier, R.O.; Stanley, H.R.; Zwally, H.J.

1978-01-01

The surface elevation of the southern Greenland ice sheet and surface features of the ice flow are obtained from the radar altimeter on the GEOS 3 satellite. The achieved accuracy in surface elevation is ???2 m. As changes in surface elevation are indicative of changes in ice volume, the mass balance of the present ice sheets could be determined by repetitive mapping of the surface elevation and the surface could be monitored to detect surging or significant changes in ice flow. ?? 1978 Nature Publishing Group.

Geoengineering Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolovick, M.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting at the grounding line. Rapid melting near the grounding line causes ice shelf thinning, loss of buttressing, flow acceleration, grounding line retreat, and ultimately mass loss and sea-level rise. If the grounding line enters a section of overdeepened bed the ice sheet may even enter a runaway collapse via the marine ice sheet instability. The warm water that triggers this process resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep troughs in the continental shelf. In Greenland, warm water transport is further constricted through narrow fjords. Here, I propose blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width- and depth-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of ocean melting, I find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing the grounding line at depth. Blocking of warm water from the sub-ice cavity causes ice shelf thickening, increased buttressing, and grounding line readvance. The increase in buttressing is greatly magnified if the thickened ice shelf regrounds on a bathymetric high or on the artificial sill itself. In some experiments for Thwaites Glacier the grounding line is able to recover from a severely retreated state over 100 km behind its present-day position. Such a dramatic recovery demonstrates that it is possible, at least in principle, to stop and reverse an ongoing marine ice sheet collapse. If the ice shelf regrounds on the artificial sill itself, erosion of the sill beneath the grounded ice could reduce the effectiveness of the intervention. However, experiments including sill erosion suggest that even a very weak sill (1 kPa) could delay a collapse for centuries. The scale of the artificial sills in Greenlandic fjords is comparable to

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): A campaign for improving data retention rates of radiometric measurements under icing conditions in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, C. J.; Morris, S. M.

2017-12-01

Longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes are fundamental quantities regularly observed globally using broadband radiometers. In cold climates, frost, rime, snow and ice (collectively, "icing") frequently builds up on sensor windows, contaminating measurements. Since icing occurs under particular meteorological conditions, associated data losses constitutes a climatological bias. Furthermore, the signal caused by ice is difficult to distinguish from that of clouds, hampering efforts to identify contaminated from real data in post-processing. Because of the sensitivity of radiometers to internal temperature instabilities, there are limitations to using heat as a de-icing method. The magnitude of this problem is indicated by the large number of research institutions and commercial vendors that have developed various de-icing strategies. The D-ICE campaign has been designed to bring together a large number of currently available systems to quantitatively evaluate and compare ice-migration strategies and also to characterize the potentially adverse effects of the techniques themselves. For D-ICE, a variety of automated approaches making use of ventilation, heating, modified housings and alcohol spray are being evaluated alongside standard units operating with only the regularly scheduled manual cleaning by human operators at the NOAA Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska. Previous experience within the BSRN community suggests that aspiration of ambient air alone may be sufficient to maintain ice-free radiometers without increasing measurement uncertainty during icing conditions, forming the main guiding hypothesis of the experiment. Icing on the sensors is monitored visually using cameras recording images every 15 minutes and quantitatively using an icing probe and met station. The effects of applied heat on infrared loss in pyranometers will be analyzed and the integrated effect of icing on monthly averages will be

Vertical and horizontal surface displacements near Jakobshavn Isbræ driven by melt-induced and dynamic ice loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, S. A.; Nielsen, K.; Wahr, J. M.; Bevis, M. G.; Liu, L.; Spada, G.; van Dam, T. M.

2012-12-01

We analyze Global Positioning System (GPS) time series of relative vertical and horizontal displacements from 2009-2011, at four GPS sites located between 5 and 150 km from the front of Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI). The horizontal displacements at KAGA, ILUL, and QEQE, relative to the site AASI, are directed towards east-north-east, suggesting that the main mass loss signal is south-east of these sites. The directions of the observed displacements are supported by modelled displacements, derived from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) surveys of surface elevations from 2006 to 2011. The agreement between the observed and modelled relative displacements is 0.8 mm or better, which suggests that the mass loss estimate of JI is well captured. In 2010, we observe a rapid increase in the uplift at all four sites. This uplift anomaly, defined as the deviation at 2010.75 from the 2006-2009.75 trend is estimated to 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm (KAGA), 9.3 +/- 2.2 mm (ILUL), 5.1 +/- 2.0 mm (QEQE), and 6.1 +/- 2.3 mm (AASI). The relative large anomalies at the sites QEQE and AASI, located ~150 km from the front of JI, suggests that the uplift anomalies are caused by a large wide-spread melt-induced ice loss. The relatively low uplift anomaly at KAGA, located only 5 km from the front, indicates that there has been a dramatic decrease in dynamic-induced ice loss near the front of JI. This is supported by elevation changes derived from ATM measurements between 2010 and 2011, where we observe an elevation increase in the flow direction of up to 10 m at the frontal part of JI.

Microvascular transplants in head and neck reconstruction: 3D evaluation of volume loss.

PubMed

Bittermann, Gido; Thönissen, Philipp; Poxleitner, Philipp; Zimmerer, Ruediger; Vach, Kirstin; Metzger, Marc C

2015-10-01

Despite oversized latissimus dorsi free flap reconstruction in the head and neck area, esthetic and functional problems continue to exist due to the well-known occurrence of transplant shrinkage. The purpose of this study was to acquire an estimation of the volume and time of the shrinkage process. The assessment of volume loss was performed using a 3D evaluation of two postoperative CT scans. A retrospective review was conducted on all latissimus dorsi free flap reconstructions performed between 2004 and 2013. Inclusion criteria for the assessment were: resection of an oral carcinoma and microsurgical defect coverage with latissimus dorsi free flap; a first postoperative CT (CT1) performed between 3 weeks and a maximum of 3 months after reconstruction surgery; and an additional CT scan (CT2) performed at least one year postoperatively. The exclusion criterion was surgical intervention in the local area between the acquisition of CT1 and CT2. The effect of adjuvant radiation therapy was considered. Volume determination of the transplant was carried out in CT1 and CT2 by manual segmentation of the graft. Fifteen patients were recruited. 3D evaluation showed an average volume loss of 34.4%. In the consideration of postoperative radiotherapy the volume reduction was 39.2% in patients with radiotherapy and 31.3% in patients without radiotherapy. The reconstruction flap volume required for overcorrection of the surgical defect was investigated. This study indicates that a volume loss of more than 30% could be expected one or more years after latissimus dorsi free flap reconstruction. Clinical trial number DRKS00007534. Copyright © 2015 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

2016-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research

The Antarctic Ice Sheet, Sea Ice, and the Ozone Hole: Satellite Observations of how they are Changing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2012-01-01

Antarctica is the Earth's coldest and highest continent and has major impacts on the climate and life of the south polar vicinity. It is covered almost entirely by the Earth's largest ice sheet by far, with a volume of ice so great that if all the Antarctic ice were to go into the ocean (as ice or liquid water), this would produce a global sea level rise of about 60 meters (197 feet). The continent is surrounded by sea ice that in the wintertime is even more expansive than the continent itself and in the summertime reduces to only about a sixth of its wintertime extent. Like the continent, the expansive sea ice cover has major impacts, reflecting the sun's radiation back to space, blocking exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and providing a platform for some animal species while impeding other species. Far above the continent, the Antarctic ozone hole is a major atmospheric phenomenon recognized as human-caused and potentially quite serious to many different life forms. Satellites are providing us with remarkable information about the ice sheet, the sea ice, and the ozone hole. Satellite visible and radar imagery are providing views of the large scale structure of the ice sheet never seen before; satellite laser altimetry has produced detailed maps of the topography of the ice sheet; and an innovative gravity-measuring two-part satellite has allowed mapping of regions of mass loss and mass gain on the ice sheet. The surrounding sea ice cover has a satellite record that goes back to the 1970s, allowing trend studies that show a decreasing sea ice presence in the region of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas, to the west of the prominent Antarctic Peninsula, but increasing sea ice presence around much of the rest of the continent. Overall, sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased at an average rate of about 17,000 square kilometers per year since the late 1970s, as determined from satellite microwave data that can be collected under both light and

Sensitivity of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoxu; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-09-01

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. The changes are further amplified through a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), owing to the interhemispheric bipolar seasaw linked to AMOC weakening. Another insight of this study lies on the improvement of our climate model. The ocean component FESOM is a newly developed ocean-sea ice model with an unstructured mesh and multi-resolution. We find that the subpolar sea-ice boundary in the Northern Hemisphere can be improved by tuning the process of open-water ice growth, which strongly influences the sea ice concentration in the marginal ice zone, the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and Arctic sea ice volume. Since the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters and the knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude, it is a challenge to implement the processes realistically into models. Based on our sensitivity experiments, we conclude a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity.

Frozen waterfall (or ice cascade) growth and decay: a thermodynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauthier, Francis; Montagnat, Maurine; Weiss, Jérôme; Allard, Michel; Hétu, Bernard

2013-04-01

The ice volume evolution of an ice cascade was studied using a thermodynamic model. The model was developed from meteorological data collected in the vicinity of the waterfall and validated from ice volume measurements estimated from terrestrial LiDAR images. The ice cascade forms over a 45 m high rockwall located in northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada. Two stages of formation were identified. During the first stage, the growth is mainly controlled by air convection around the flowing and freefalling water. The ice cascade growth rate increases with the decreasing air temperature below 0°C and when the water flow reaches its lowest level. During the second stage, the ice cascade covers the entire rockwall surface, water flow is isolated from the outside environment and ice volume increases asymptotically. Heat is evacuated from the water flow through the ice cover by conduction. The growth is mainly controlled by the radiation energy balance but more specifically by the longwave radiation emitted at the ice surface during the night. In spring, melting of the ice cascade is clearly dependant on the sensible heat carried by the increasing water flow and the diffuse solar radiation received at the ice surface during the day.

Asynchronously Coupled Models of Ice Loss from Airless Planetary Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schorghofer, N.

2016-12-01

Ice is found near the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, in some main belt asteroids, and perhaps in NEOs that will be explored or even mined in future. The simple but important question of how fast ice is lost from airless bodies can present computational challenges. The thermal cycle on the surface repeats on much shorter time-scales than ice retreats; one process acts on the time-scale of hours, the other over billions of years. This multi-scale situation is addressed with asynchronous coupling, where models with different time steps are woven together. The sharp contrast at the retreating ice table is dealt with with explicit interface tracking. For Ceres, which is covered with a thermally insulating dust mantle, desiccation rates are orders of magnitude slower than had been calculated with simpler models. More model challenges remain: The role of impact devolatization and the time-scale for complete desiccation of an asteroid. I will also share my experience with code distribution using GitHub and Zenodo.

Tropical tales of polar ice: evidence of Last Interglacial polar ice sheet retreat recorded by fossil reefs of the granitic Seychelles islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, Andrea; Webster, Jody M.; Zwartz, Dan; Lambeck, Kurt; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2015-01-01

In the search for a record of eustatic sea level change on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets that wax and wane on orbital cycles, the local-or relative-sea level history is predicted to lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during the Last Interglacial period. We have surveyed and dated Last Interglacial fossil corals to ascertain peak sea level and hence infer maximum retreat of polar ice sheets during this time interval. We observe a pattern of gradually rising sea level in the Seychelles between ˜129 and 125 thousand years ago (ka), with peak eustatic sea level attained after 125 ka at 7.6 ± 1.7 m higher than present. After accounting for thermal expansion and loss of mountain glaciers, this sea-level budget would require ˜5-8 m of polar ice sheet contribution, relative to today's volume, of which only ˜2 m came from the Greenland ice sheet. This result clearly identifies the Antarctic ice sheet as a significant source of melt water, most likely derived from one of the unstable, marine-based sectors in the West and/or East Antarctic ice sheet. Furthermore, the establishment of a +5.9 ± 1.7 m eustatic sea level position by 128.6 ± 0.8 ka would require that partial AIS collapse was coincident with the onset of the sea level highstand.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Influence of stochastic sea ice parametrization on climate and the role of atmosphere–sea ice–ocean interaction

PubMed Central

Juricke, Stephan; Jung, Thomas

2014-01-01

The influence of a stochastic sea ice strength parametrization on the mean climate is investigated in a coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model. The results are compared with an uncoupled simulation with a prescribed atmosphere. It is found that the stochastic sea ice parametrization causes an effective weakening of the sea ice. In the uncoupled model this leads to an Arctic sea ice volume increase of about 10–20% after an accumulation period of approximately 20–30 years. In the coupled model, no such increase is found. Rather, the stochastic perturbations lead to a spatial redistribution of the Arctic sea ice thickness field. A mechanism involving a slightly negative atmospheric feedback is proposed that can explain the different responses in the coupled and uncoupled system. Changes in integrated Antarctic sea ice quantities caused by the stochastic parametrization are generally small, as memory is lost during the melting season because of an almost complete loss of sea ice. However, stochastic sea ice perturbations affect regional sea ice characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere, both in the uncoupled and coupled model. Remote impacts of the stochastic sea ice parametrization on the mean climate of non-polar regions were found to be small. PMID:24842027

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation. PMID:28782014

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

Aircraft Icing Handbook. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

Maryland - . . . Kohiman Aviation, Lawrence , Kansas Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio .I --- t-r 1-- - -t I.Q,,- t ../e . Pratt and Whitney...lower; about six percent at -22 ’F (-30 *C). 1.2.3 Variations with Season The summer or warm season months create large warm air masses which can...on Aircraft Surfaces," NASA TM 87184, May 1986. 2-54 Hausman , R.J. and Turnock, S.R., "Investigation of Surface Water Behavior During Glaze Ice

Equatorial ground ice on Mars: Steady-state stability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.; Postawko, Susan E.

1993-01-01

Current Martian equatorial surface temperatures are too warm for water ice to exist at the surface for any appreciable length of time before subliming into the atmosphere. Subsurface temperatures are generally warmer still and, despite the presence of a diffusive barrier of porous regolith material, it has been shown by Smoluchowski, Clifford and Hillel, and Fanale et al. that buried ground ice will also sublime and be lost to the atmosphere in a relatively short time. We investigate the behavior of this subliming subsurface ice and show that it is possible for ice to maintain at a steady-state depth, where sublimation and diffusive loss to the atmosphere is balanced by resupply from beneath by diffusion and recondensation of either a deeper buried ice deposits or ground water. We examine the behavior of equatorial ground ice with a numercial time-marching molecular diffusion model. In our model we allow for diffusion of water vapor through a porous regolith, variations in diffusivity and porosity with ice content, and recondensation of sublimed water vapor. A regolith containing considerable amounts of ice can still be very porous, allowing water vapor to diffuse up from deeper within the ice layer where temperatures are warmer due to the geothermal gradient. This vapor can then recondense nearer to the surface where ice had previously sublimed and been lost to the atmosphere. As a result we find that ice deposits migrate to find a steady-state depth, which represents a balance between diffusive loss to the atmosphere through the overlying porous regolith and diffusive resupply through a porous icy regolith below. This depth depends primarily on the long-term mean surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, and is independent of the ice-free porosity and the regolith diffusivity. Only the rate of loss of ground ice depends on diffusive properties.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Pan-Arctic sea ice-algal chl a biomass and suitable habitat are largely underestimated for multiyear ice.

PubMed

Lange, Benjamin A; Flores, Hauke; Michel, Christine; Beckers, Justin F; Bublitz, Anne; Casey, John Alec; Castellani, Giulia; Hatam, Ido; Reppchen, Anke; Rudolph, Svenja A; Haas, Christian

2017-11-01

There is mounting evidence that multiyear ice (MYI) is a unique component of the Arctic Ocean and may play a more important ecological role than previously assumed. This study improves our understanding of the potential of MYI as a suitable habitat for sea ice algae on a pan-Arctic scale. We sampled sea ice cores from MYI and first-year sea ice (FYI) within the Lincoln Sea during four consecutive spring seasons. This included four MYI hummocks with a mean chl a biomass of 2.0 mg/m 2 , a value significantly higher than FYI and MYI refrozen ponds. Our results support the hypothesis that MYI hummocks can host substantial ice-algal biomass and represent a reliable ice-algal habitat due to the (quasi-) permanent low-snow surface of these features. We identified an ice-algal habitat threshold value for calculated light transmittance of 0.014%. Ice classes and coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat were determined from snow and ice surveys. These ice classes and associated coverage of suitable habitat were applied to pan-Arctic CryoSat-2 snow and ice thickness data products. This habitat classification accounted for the variability of the snow and ice properties and showed an areal coverage of suitable ice-algal habitat within the MYI-covered region of 0.54 million km 2 (8.5% of total ice area). This is 27 times greater than the areal coverage of 0.02 million km 2 (0.3% of total ice area) determined using the conventional block-model classification, which assigns single-parameter values to each grid cell and does not account for subgrid cell variability. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for variable snow and ice conditions in all sea ice studies. Furthermore, our results indicate the loss of MYI will also mean the loss of reliable ice-algal habitat during spring when food is sparse and many organisms depend on ice-algae. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Hill, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.

2011-01-01

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Amazonian mid- to high-latitude glaciation on Mars: Supply-limited ice sources, ice accumulation patterns, and concentric crater fill glacial flow and ice sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, James L.; Head, James W.

2014-02-01

Concentric crater fill (CCF) occurs in the interior of impact craters in mid- to high latitudes on Mars and is interpreted to have formed by glacial ice flow and debris covering. We use the characteristics and orientation of deposits comprising CCF, the thickness of pedestal deposits in mid- to high-latitude pedestal craters (Pd), the volumes of the current polar caps, and information about regional slopes and ice rheology to address questions about (1) the maximum thickness of regional ice deposits during the Late Amazonian, (2) the likelihood that these deposits flowed regionally, (3) the geological regions and features most likely to induce ice-flow, and (4) the locations and environments in which ice is likely to have been sequestered up to the present. We find that regional ice flow under Late Amazonian climate conditions requires ice thicknesses exceeding many hundreds of meters for slopes typical of the vast majority of the surface of Mars, a thickness for the mid-latitudes that is well in excess of the total volume available from polar ice reservoirs. This indicates that although conditions for mid- to high-latitude glaciation may have persisted for tens to hundreds of millions of years, the process is “supply limited”, with a steady state reached when the polar ice cap water ice supply becomes exhausted. Impact craters are by far the most abundant landform with associated slopes (interior wall and exterior rim) sufficiently high to induce glacial ice flow under Late Amazonian climate conditions, and topographic slope data show that Amazonian impact craters have been clearly modified, undergoing crater interior slope reduction and floor shallowing. We show that these trends are the predictable response of ice deposition and preferential accumulation and retention in mid- to high-latitude crater interiors during episodes of enhanced spin-axis obliquity. We demonstrate that flow from a single episode of an inter-crater terrain layer comparable to Pedestal

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 2: Discipline Reviews

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Seven discipline review papers are presented on the state of the knowledge of West Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to predict the future behavior of this ice sheet and to assess its potential to collapse, rapidly raising the global sea level. These are the goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS).

Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E.; Jacobs, S.; Mouginot, J.; Scheuchl, B.

2013-07-01

We compare the volume flux divergence of Antarctic ice shelves in 2007 and 2008 with 1979 to 2010 surface accumulation and 2003 to 2008 thinning to determine their rates of melting and mass balance. Basal melt of 1325 ± 235 gigatons per year (Gt/year) exceeds a calving flux of 1089 ± 139 Gt/year, making ice-shelf melting the largest ablation process in Antarctica. The giant cold-cavity Ross, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves covering two-thirds of the total ice-shelf area account for only 15% of net melting. Half of the meltwater comes from 10 small, warm-cavity Southeast Pacific ice shelves occupying 8% of the area. A similar high melt/area ratio is found for six East Antarctic ice shelves, implying undocumented strong ocean thermal forcing on their deep grounding lines.

Effects of Ice Formations on Airplane Performance in Level Cruising Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Preston, G. Merritt; Blackman, Calvin C.

1948-01-01

A flight investigation in natural icing conditions was conducted by the NACA to determine the effect of ice accretion on airplane performance. The maximum loss in propeller efficiency encountered due to ice formation on the propeller blades was 19 percent. During 87 percent of the propeller icing encounters, losses of 10 percent or less were observed. Ice formations on all of the components of the airplane except the propellers during one icing encounter resulted in an increase in parasite drag of the airplane of 81 percent. The control response of the airplane in this condition was marginal.

Southern Alaska Glaciers: Spatial and Temporal Variations in Ice Volume

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauber, J.; Molnia, B. F.; Lutchke, S.; Rowlands, D.; Harding, D.; Carabajal, C.; Hurtado, J. M.; Spade, G.

2004-01-01

Although temperate mountain glaciers comprise less than 1% of the glacier-covered area on Earth, they are important because they appear to be melting rapidly under present climatic conditions and, therefore, make significant contributions to rising sea level. In this study, we use ICESat observations made in the last 1.5 years of southern Alaska glaciers to estimate ice elevation profiles, ice surface slopes and roughness, and bi-annual and/or annual ice elevation changes. We report initial results from the near coastal region between Yakutat Bay and Cape Suckling that includes the Malaspina and Bering Glaciers. We show and interpret ice elevations changes across the lower reaches of the Bagley Ice Valley for the period between October 2003 and May 2004. In addition, we use off-nadir pointing observations to reference tracks over the Bering and Malaspina Glaciers in order to estimate annual ice elevation change. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) derived DEMs are used to estimate across track regional slopes between ICESat data acquisitions. Although the distribution and quantity of ICESat elevation profiles with multiple, exact repeat data is currently limited in Alaska, individual ICESat data tracks, provide an accurate reference surface for comparison to other elevation data (e.g. ASTER and SRTM X- and C-band derived DEMs). Specifically we report the elevation change over the Malaspina Glacier's piedmont lobe between a DEM derived from SRTM C-band data acquired in Feb. 2000 and ICESat Laser #2b data from Feb.-March 2004. We also report use of ICESat elevation data to enhance ASTER derived absolute DEMs. Mountain glaciers generally have rougher surfaces and steeper regional slopes than the ice sheets for which the ICESat design was optimized. Therefore, rather than averaging ICESat observations over large regions or relying on crossovers, we are working with well-located ICESat

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koutnik, Michelle R.; Fudge, T.J.; Conway, Howard; Waddington, Edwin D.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Buizert, Christo; Taylor, Kendrick C.

2016-01-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

Baseline Gray- and White Matter Volume Predict Successful Weight Loss in the Elderly

PubMed Central

Mokhtari, Fatemeh; Paolini, Brielle M.; Burdette, Jonathan H.; Marsh, Anthony P.; Rejeski, W. Jack; Laurienti, Paul J.

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to investigate if structural brain phenotypes can be used to predict weight loss success following behavioral interventions in older adults that are overweight or obese and have cardiometabolic dysfunction. Methods A support vector machine (SVM) with a repeated random subsampling validation approach was used to classify participants into the upper and lower halves of the weight loss distribution following 18 months of a weight loss intervention. Predictions were based on baseline brain gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) volume from 52 individuals that completed the intervention and a magnetic resonance imaging session. Results The SVM resulted in an average classification accuracy of 72.62 % based on GM and WM volume. A receiver operating characteristic analysis indicated that classification performance was robust based on an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions Our findings suggest that baseline brain structure is able to predict weight loss success following 18 months of treatment. The identification of brain structure as a predictor of successful weight loss is an innovative approach to identifying phenotypes for responsiveness to intensive lifestyle interventions. This phenotype could prove useful in future research focusing on the tailoring of treatment for weight loss. PMID:27804273

Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan, Ann V.; Egholm, David L.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.

2015-11-01

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier-Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya.

Ion Irradiation of H2-Laden Porous Water-ice Films: Implications for Interstellar Ices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raut, U.; Mitchell, E. H.; Baragiola, R. A.

2015-10-01

To understand the effects of cosmic-ray (CR) impacts on interstellar icy grains immersed in H2 gas, we have irradiated porous water-ice films loaded with H2 with 100 keV H+. The ice films were exposed to H2 gas at different pressures following deposition and during irradiation. A net H2 loss is observed during irradiation due to competition between ion-induced sputtering and gas adsorption. The initial H2 loss cross-section, 4(1) × 10-14 cm2, was independent of film thickness, H2, and proton fluxes. In addition to sputtering, irradiation also closes nanopores, trapping H2 in the film with binding that exceeds physical absorption energies. As a result, 2%-7% H2 is retained in the ice following irradiation to high fluences. We find that the trapped H2 concentration increases with decreasing Φ, the ratio of ion to H2 fluxes, suggesting that as high as 8% solid H2 can be trapped in interstellar ice by CR or stellar wind impacts.

Ice Crystal Icing Engine Testing in the NASA Glenn Research Center's Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL): Altitude Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducted a full scale ice crystal icing turbofan engine test in the NASA Glenn Research Centers Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) Facility in February 2013. Honeywell Engines supplied the test article, an obsolete, unmodified Lycoming ALF502-R5 turbofan engine serial number LF01 that experienced an un-commanded loss of thrust event while operating at certain high altitude ice crystal icing conditions. These known conditions were duplicated in the PSL for this testing.

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

High Artic Glaciers and Ice Caps Ice Mass Change from GRACE, Regional Climate Model Output and Altimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciraci, E.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

The Arctic hosts more than the 75% of the ice covered regions outside from Greenland and Antarctica. Available observations show that increased atmospheric temperatures during the last century have contributed to a substantial glaciers retreat in all these regions. We use satellite gravimetry by the NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and apply a least square fit mascon approach to calculate time series of ice mass change for the period 2002-2016. Our estimates show that arctic glaciers have constantly contributed to the sea level rise during the entire observation period with a mass change of -170+/-20 Gt/yr equivalent to the 80% of the total ice mass change from the world Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) excluding the Ice sheet peripheral GIC, which we calculated to be -215+/-32 GT/yr, with an acceleration of 9+/-4 Gt/yr2. The Canadian Archipelago is the main contributor to the total mass depletion with an ice mass trend of -73+/-9 Gt/yr and a significant acceleration of -7+/-3 Gt/yr2. The increasing mass loss is mainly determined by melting glaciers located in the northern part of the archipelago.In order to investigate the physical processes driving the observed ice mass loss we employ satellite altimetry and surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from Regional climate model outputs available for the same time period covered by the gravimetry data. We use elevation data from the NASA ICESat (2003-2009) and ESA CryoSat-2 (2010-2016) missions to estimate ice elevation changes. We compare GRACE ice mass estimates with time series of surface mass balance from the Regional Climate Model (RACMO-2) and the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and determine the portion of the total mass change explained by the SMB signal. We find that in Iceland and in the and the Canadian Archipelago the SMB signal explains most of the observed mass changes, suggesting that ice discharge may play a secondary role here. In other region, e.g. in Svalbar, the SMB signal

Comparing Volume Loss in Neuroanatomical Regions of Emotion versus Regions of Cognition in Healthy Aging.

PubMed

Pressman, Peter S; Noniyeva, Yuliana; Bott, Nick; Dutt, Shubir; Sturm, Virginia; Miller, Bruce L; Kramer, Joel H

2016-01-01

Many emotional functions are relatively preserved in aging despite declines in several cognitive domains and physical health. High levels of happiness exist even among centenarians. To address the hypothesis of whether preservation of emotional function in healthy aging may relate to different rates of age-related volume loss across brain structures, we performed two volumetric analyses on structural magnetic resonance neuroimaging of a group of healthy aging research participants using Freesurfer version 5.1. Volumes selected as supporting cognition included bilateral midfrontal and lateral frontal gyri, lateral parietal and temporal cortex, and medial temporal lobes. Volumes supporting emotion included bilateral amygdala, rostral anterior cingulate, insula, orbitofrontal cortex, and nucleus accumbens. A cross-sectional analysis was performed using structural MRI scans from 258 subjects. We found no difference in proportional change between groups. A longitudinal mixed effects model was used to compare regional changes over time in a subset of 84 subjects. Again, there was no difference in proportional change over time. While our results suggest that aging does not collectively target cognitive brain regions more than emotional regions, subgroup analysis suggests relative preservation of the anterior cingulate cortex, with greater volume loss in the nucleus accumbens. Implications of these relative rates of age-related volume loss in healthy aging are discussed and merit further research.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian ...GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite- derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice... Lagrangian sea-ice back trajectories to estimate thermodynamic and dynamic (advection) ice loss. APPROACH We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

The ice VII-ice X phase transition with implications for planetary interiors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarestad, B.; Frank, M. R.; Scott, H.; Bricker, M.; Prakapenka, V.

2008-12-01

A significant amount of research on the high pressure polymorphs of H2O have detailed the lattice structure and density of these phases, namely ice VI, ice VII, and ice X. These high pressure ices are noteworthy as they may comprise a considerable part of the interior of large icy planets and satellites. However, there is a dearth of data on how the incorporation of an impurity, charged or non-charged, affects the ice VII-ice X transition. This study examined the ice VII-ice X transition that occurs at approximately 62 GPa with a pure system and two select impure systems. Solutions of pure H2O, 1.6 mole percent NaCl in H2O, and 1.60 mole percent CH3OH in H2O were compressed in a diamond anvil cell (DAC). The experiments were performed at the GSECARS 13-BM-D beam line at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory. Powder diffraction data of the ice samples were collected using monochromatic X-ray radiation, 0.2755 Å, and a MAR 345 online imaging system at intervals of approximately 2 GPa up to ~71.5, ~74.5, and ~68 GPa, respectively. Analyses of the data provided volume-pressure relations (at 298 K) which were used to detail the ice VII-ice X phase transition. The pressure of the phase transition, based upon an interpretation of the X-ray diffraction data, was found to vary as a function of the impurity type. Thus, the depth of the ice VII-ice X phase transition within an ice-rich planetary body can be influenced by trace-level impurities.

West-Antarctic Ice Streams: Analog to Ice Flow in Channels on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucchitta, B. K.

1997-01-01

Sounding of the sea floor in front of the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica recently revealed large persistent patterns of longitudinal megaflutes and drumlinoid forms, which are interpreted to have formed at the base of ice streams during the list glacial advance. The flutes bear remarkable resemblance to longitudinal grooves and highly elongated streamlined islands found on the floors of some large martian channels, called outflow channels. ln addition, other similarities exist between Antarctic ice streams and outflow channels. Ice streams are 30 to 80 km wide and hundreds of kilometers long, as are the martian channels. Ice stream beds are below sea level. Floors of many martian outflow channels lie below martian datum, which may have been close to or below past martian sea levels. The Antarctic ice stream bed gradient is flat and locally may go uphill, and surface slopes are exceptionally low. So are gradients of martian channels. The depth to the bed in ice streams is 1 to 1.5 km. At bankful stage, the depth of the fluid in outflow channels would have been 1 to 2 km. These similarities suggest that the martian outflow channels, whose origin is commonly attributed to gigantic catastrophic floods, were locally filled by ice that left a conspicuous morphologic imprint. Unlike the West-Antarctic-ice streams, which discharge ice from an ice sheet, ice in the martian channels came from water erupting from the ground. In the cold martian environment, this water, if of moderate volume, would eventually freeze. Thus it may have formed icings on springs, ice dams and jams on constrictions in the channel path, or frozen pools. Given sufficient thickness and downhill surface gradient, these ice masses would have moved; and given the right conditions, they could have moved like Antarctic ice streams.

Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from three years of IceTop and IceCube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, K.; IceCube Collaboration

2016-05-01

IceTop is the surface component of the IceCube Observatory, composed of frozen water tanks at the top of IceCube’s strings. Data from this detector can be analyzed in different ways with the goal of measuring cosmic ray spectrum and composition. The shower size S125 from IceTop alone can be used as a proxy for primary energy, and unfolded into an all-particle spectrum. In addition, S125 from the surface can be combined with high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep IceCube detector for those air showers which pass through both. Using these coincident events in a complementary analysis, both the spectrum and mass composition of primary cosmic rays can be extracted in parallel using a neural network. Both of these analyses have been performed on three years of IceTop and IceCube data. Both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.

Deicing and Anti-Icing Unite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

With funding from Glenn's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, Cox & Company, Inc., built an ice protection system that combines thermal anti-icing and mechanical deicing to keep airfoils (wings and other lifting surfaces) clear of ice. Cox's concept was to combine an anti-icing system with NASA's Electro-Mechanical Expulsion Deicing System, a mechanical deicer. The anti-icing element of this hybrid would reduce the aerodynamic losses associated with deicing systems. The Cox Low Power Ice Protection System is the first new aircraft ice protection system that has been approved by the Federal Aviation Administration for use on a business jet in 40 years. While the system is currently sized for Premier class aircraft, there are no apparent constraints prohibiting its use on aircraft of any size. The company is investigating further applications, such as adapting the system for unmanned aerial vehicles and other military aircraft.

Development and characterization of an ice-selecting pumped counterflow virtual impactor (IS-PCVI) to study ice crystal residuals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiranuma, Naruki; Möhler, Ottmar; Kulkarni, Gourihar; Schnaiter, Martin; Vogt, Steffen; Vochezer, Paul; Järvinen, Emma; Wagner, Robert; Bell, David M.; Wilson, Jacqueline; Zelenyuk, Alla; Cziczo, Daniel J.

2016-08-01

-to-input flow ratio. Particle losses were characterized by comparing the residual number concentration to the rejected interstitial particle number concentration. Overall results suggest that the IS-PCVI enables inertial separation of particles with a volume-equivalent particle size in the range of ~ 10-30 µm in diameter with small inadvertent intrusion (~  5 %) of unwanted particles.

Structural incorporation of MgCl2 into ice VII at room temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Mao; Komatsu, Kazuki; Noritake, Fumiya; Kagi, Hiroyuki

2017-05-01

Raman spectra and X-ray diffraction patterns were obtained from 1:100 and 1:200 \\text{MgCl}2:\\text{H}2\\text{O} solutions (in molar ratio) at pressures up to 6 GPa using diamond anvil cells (DACs) and compared with those of pure water. The O-H stretching band from ice VII crystallized from the 1:200 solution was approximately 10 cm-1 higher than that of pure ice VII. The phase boundaries between ice VII and VIII crystallized from the MgCl2 solutions at 4 GPa were 2 K lower than those of pure ice VII and VIII. These observations indicate that ice VII incorporates MgCl2 into its structure. The unit cell volumes of ice VII crystallized from pure water and the two solutions coincided with each other within the experimental error, and salt incorporation was not detectable from the cell volume. Possible configurations of ion substitution and excess volume of ice VIII were simulated on the basis of density functional theory (DFT) calculations.

Depth, ice thickness, and ice-out timing cause divergent hydrologic responses among Arctic lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Welker, Jeffery A.

2015-01-01

Lakes are prevalent in the Arctic and thus play a key role in regional hydrology. Since many Arctic lakes are shallow and ice grows thick (historically 2-m or greater), seasonal ice commonly freezes to the lake bed (bedfast ice) by winter's end. Bedfast ice fundamentally alters lake energy balance and melt-out processes compared to deeper lakes that exceed the maximum ice thickness (floating ice) and maintain perennial liquid water below floating ice. Our analysis of lakes in northern Alaska indicated that ice-out of bedfast ice lakes occurred on average 17 days earlier (22-June) than ice-out on adjacent floating ice lakes (9-July). Earlier ice-free conditions in bedfast ice lakes caused higher open-water evaporation, 28% on average, relative to floating ice lakes and this divergence increased in lakes closer to the coast and in cooler summers. Water isotopes (18O and 2H) indicated similar differences in evaporation between these lake types. Our analysis suggests that ice regimes created by the combination of lake depth relative to ice thickness and associated ice-out timing currently cause a strong hydrologic divergence among Arctic lakes. Thus understanding the distribution and dynamics of lakes by ice regime is essential for predicting regional hydrology. An observed regime shift in lakes to floating ice conditions due to thinner ice growth may initially offset lake drying because of lower evaporative loss from this lake type. This potential negative feedback caused by winter processes occurs in spite of an overall projected increase in evapotranspiration as the Arctic climate warms.

Geoengineering Outlet Glaciers and Ice Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolovick, Michael

2017-04-01

Mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica is highly sensitive to the presence of warm ocean water that drives melting of ice shelves and marine terminated glaciers. This warm water resides offshore at depth and accesses the grounding line through deep but narrow troughs and fjords. Here, we investigate the possibility of blocking warm water transport through these choke points with an artificial sill. Using a simple width-averaged model of ice stream flow coupled to a buoyant-plume model of submarine melt, we find that grounding line retreat and sea level rise can be delayed or reversed for hundreds of years if warm water is prevented from accessing outlet glaciers and ice-shelf cavities. Glaciers with a floating shelf exhibit a strong response to the presence of the artificial sill regardless of our choice of calving law, while tidewater glaciers require a strong linkage between submarine melt and iceberg calving for the artificial sill to have an effect. As a result of this difference and as a result of differing degrees of overdeepening in the basal topography, Antarctica and Greenland present very different societal cost-benefit analyses. Intervention in Greenland would be low-cost and low-reward: the volume of the artificial sill is comparable to existing large public works projects such as the Dubai Islands or the Suez Canal, but the magnitude of averted sea-level rise is small, the success of the intervention depends on the choice of calving law, and the glaciers return to their non-geoengineered trajectories within one to two centuries. Intervention in Antarctica, on the other hand, would be high-cost and high-reward: the volume of the artificial sill is one to two orders of magnitude greater, but the averted sea level rise is much larger, the intervention is successful regardless of the choice of calving law, and the ice streams remain far from their non-geoengineered trajectories throughout the 1000 year duration of our model runs. In both cases, an

Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.

Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves

PubMed Central

Liu, Yan; Moore, John C.; Cheng, Xiao; Gladstone, Rupert M.; Bassis, Jeremy N.; Liu, Hongxing; Wen, Jiahong; Hui, Fengming

2015-01-01

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates. PMID:25733856

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Sea ice motions in the Central Arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emery, William; Maslanik, James; Fowler, Charles

1995-01-01

Synoptic observations of ice motion in the Arctic Basin are currently limited to those acquired by drifting buoys and, more recently, radar data from ERS-1. Buoys are not uniformly distributed throughout the Arctic, and SAR coverage is currently limited regionally and temporally due to the data volume, swath width, processing requirements, and power needs of the SAR. Additional ice-motion observations that can map ice responses simultaneously over large portions of the Arctic on daily to weekly time intervals are thus needed to augment the SAR and buoys data and to provide an intermediate-scale measure of ice drift suitable for climatological analyses and ice modeling. Principal objectives of this project were to: (1) demonstrate whether sufficient ice features and ice motion existed within the consolidated ice pack to permit motion tracking using AVHRR imagery; (2) determine the limits imposed on AVHRR mapping by cloud cover; and (3) test the applicability of AVHRR-derived motions in studies of ice-atmosphere interactions. Each of these main objectives was addressed. We conclude that AVHRR data, particularly when blended with other available observations, provide a valuable data set for studying sea ice processes. In a follow-on project, we are now extending this work to cover larger areas and to address science questions in more detail.

Ecological consequences of sea-ice decline.

PubMed

Post, Eric; Bhatt, Uma S; Bitz, Cecilia M; Brodie, Jedediah F; Fulton, Tara L; Hebblewhite, Mark; Kerby, Jeffrey; Kutz, Susan J; Stirling, Ian; Walker, Donald A

2013-08-02

After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic sea-ice minima on record, including the historically low minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments in the study of ecological responses to sea-ice decline. Sea-ice loss emerges as an important driver of marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics, influencing productivity, species interactions, population mixing, gene flow, and pathogen and disease transmission. Major challenges in the near future include assigning clearer attribution to sea ice as a primary driver of such dynamics, especially in terrestrial systems, and addressing pressures arising from human use of arctic coastal and near-shore areas as sea ice diminishes.

Common-midpoint radar surveys of ice sheets: a tool for better ice and bed property inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holschuh, N.; Christianson, K.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Alley, R. B.; Jacobel, R. W.

2016-12-01

In response to the demand for observationally derived boundary conditions in ice-sheet models, geophysicists are striving to more quantitatively interpret the reflection amplitudes of ice penetrating radar data. Inversions for ice-flow parameters and basal properties typically use common-offset radar data, which contain a single observation of bed reflection amplitude at each location in the survey; however, the radar equation has more than one unknown - ice temperature, subglacial water content, and bedrock roughness cannot be uniquely determined without additional constraints. In this study, we adapt traditional seismic property inversion techniques to radar data, using additional information collected with a common-midpoint (CMP) radar survey geometry (which varies the source-receiver offset for each subsurface target). Using two of the first common-midpoint ice-penetrating radar data sets collected over thick ice in Antarctica and Greenland, we test the hypothesis that these data can be used to disentangle the contributions of ice conductivity and bed permittivity to the received reflection amplitudes. We focus specifically on the corrections for the angular dependence of antenna gain and surface reflectivity, refractive focusing effects, and surface scattering losses. Inferred temperature profiles, derived from the constrained ice conductivities at Kamb Ice Stream and the North East Greenland Ice Stream, suggest higher than expected depth-integrated temperatures, as well as non-physical depth trends (with elevated temperatures near the surface). We hypothesize that this is driven in part by offset-dependent interferences between the sub-wavelength layers that make up a single nadir reflection, and present a convolutional model that describes how this interference might systematically reduce reflection power with offset (thereby elevating the inferred attenuation rate). If these additional offset-dependent power losses can be isolated and removed, common

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels

Magnitude of Myocutaneous Flaps and Factors Associated With Loss of Volume in Oral Cancer Reconstructive Surgery.

PubMed

Sakamoto, Yuki; Yanamoto, Souichi; Ota, Yoshihide; Furudoi, Shungo; Komori, Takahide; Umeda, Masahiro

2016-03-01

Myocutaneous flaps are often used to repair oral and maxillofacial defects after surgery for oral cancer; however, their volume decreases during the postoperative period. To facilitate treatment planning, the authors measured the extent of such postoperative flap volume loss and identified associated factors in patients who underwent oral reconstruction with myocutaneous flaps. The authors designed and performed a retrospective observational study of patients who underwent reconstructive procedures involving rectus abdominal myocutaneous (RAM) or pectoralis major myocutaneous (PMMC) flaps at Tokai University Hospital, Kobe University Hospital, or Nagasaki University Hospital from April 2009 through March 2013. Flap type and other clinical variables were examined as potential predictors of flap loss. The primary outcome was flap loss at 6 months postoperatively. Correlations between each potential predictor and the primary outcome were examined using multiple regression analysis. The subjects were 75 patients whose oral defects were reconstructed with RAM flaps (n = 57) or PMMC flaps (n = 18). RAM flaps exhibited a mean volume shrinkage of 22% at 6 months postoperatively, which was less than the 27.5% displayed by the PMMC flaps, but the difference was not important. Renal failure, previous surgery of the oral region, postoperative radiotherapy, and postoperative serum albumin level were found to be meaningful risk factors for postoperative flap volume loss. The results of this study suggest that larger flaps should be used in patients who possess these risk factors or are scheduled to undergo postoperative radiotherapy. Future studies should examine the utility of postoperative nutritional management for preventing flap volume loss. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginal Ice Zone Bibliography.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-06-01

A Voyage of Discovery. George Deacon 70th An-niversary Volume, (M. Angel, ed.), Pergamon Press, Oxford, p.15-41. Coachman, L.K., C.A. Barnes, 1961...some polar contrasts. In: S "" RUsium on Antarctic Ice and Water Masses, ( George Deacon, ed.), Sci- 72 Lebedev, A.A., 1968: Zone of possible icing of...Atlantic and Western Europe. British Meteorological Office. Geophysical Memoirs, 4(41). Brost , R.A., J.C. Wyngaard, 1978: A model study of the stably

Global and regional annual brain volume loss rates in physiological aging.

PubMed

Schippling, Sven; Ostwaldt, Ann-Christin; Suppa, Per; Spies, Lothar; Manogaran, Praveena; Gocke, Carola; Huppertz, Hans-Jürgen; Opfer, Roland

2017-03-01

The objective is to estimate average global and regional percentage brain volume loss per year (BVL/year) of the physiologically ageing brain. Two independent, cross-sectional single scanner cohorts of healthy subjects were included. The first cohort (n = 248) was acquired at the Medical Prevention Center (MPCH) in Hamburg, Germany. The second cohort (n = 316) was taken from the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS). Brain parenchyma (BP), grey matter (GM), white matter (WM), corpus callosum (CC), and thalamus volumes were calculated. A non-parametric technique was applied to fit the resulting age-volume data. For each age, the BVL/year was derived from the age-volume curves. The resulting BVL/year curves were compared between the two cohorts. For the MPCH cohort, the BVL/year curve of the BP was an increasing function starting from 0.20% at the age of 35 years increasing to 0.52% at 70 years (corresponding values for GM ranged from 0.32 to 0.55%, WM from 0.02 to 0.47%, CC from 0.07 to 0.48%, and thalamus from 0.25 to 0.54%). Mean absolute difference between BVL/year trajectories across the age range of 35-70 years was 0.02% for BP, 0.04% for GM, 0.04% for WM, 0.11% for CC, and 0.02% for the thalamus. Physiological BVL/year rates were remarkably consistent between the two cohorts and independent from the scanner applied. Average BVL/year was clearly age and compartment dependent. These results need to be taken into account when defining cut-off values for pathological annual brain volume loss in disease models, such as multiple sclerosis.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Ice core carbonyl sulfide measurements from a new South Pole ice core (SPICECORE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, M.; Nicewonger, M. R.; Saltzman, E. S.

2017-12-01

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the troposphere with a present-day mixing ratio of about 500 ppt. Direct and indirect emissions from the oceans are the predominant sources of atmospheric COS. The primary removal mechanism is uptake by terrestrial plants during photosynthesis. Because plants do not respire COS, atmospheric COS levels are linked to terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Ancient air trapped in polar ice cores has been used to reconstruct COS records of the past atmosphere, which can be used to infer past GPP variability and potential changes in oceanic COS emission. We are currently analyzing samples from a newly drilled intermediate depth ice core from South Pole, Antarctica (SPICECORE). This core is advantageous for studying COS because the cold temperatures of South Pole ice lead to very slow rates of in situ loss due to hydrolysis. One hundred and eighty-four bubbly ice core samples have been analyzed to date with gas ages ranging from about 9.2 thousand (733 m depth) to 75 years (126 m depth) before present. After a 2% correction for gravitational enrichment in the firn, the mean COS mixing ratio for the data set is 312±15 ppt (±1s), with the data set median also equal to 312 ppt. The only significant long-term trend in the record is a 5-10% increase in COS during the last 2-3 thousand years of the Holocene. The SPICECORE data agree with previously published ice core COS records from other Antarctic sites during times of overlap, confirming earlier estimates of COS loss rates to in situ hydrolysis in ice cores. Antarctic ice core data place strict constraints on the COS mixing ratio and its range of variability in the southern hemisphere atmosphere during the last several millennia. Implications for the atmospheric COS budget will be discussed.

Endmembers of Ice Shelf Melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boghosian, A.; Child, S. F.; Kingslake, J.; Tedesco, M.; Bell, R. E.; Alexandrov, O.; McMichael, S.

2017-12-01

Studies of surface melt on ice shelves have defined a spectrum of meltwater behavior. On one end the storage of meltwater in persistent surface ponds can trigger ice shelf collapse as in the 2002 event leading to the disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. On the other, meltwater export by rivers can stabilize an ice shelf as was recently shown on the Nansen Ice Shelf. We explore this dichotomy by quantifying the partitioning between stored and transported water on two glaciers adjacent to floating ice shelves, Nimrod (Antarctica) and Peterman (Greenland). We analyze optical satellite imagery (LANDSAT, WorldView), airborne imagery (Operation IceBridge, Trimetrogon Aerial Phototography), satellite radar (Sentinel-1), and digital elevation models (DEMs) to categorize surface meltwater fate and map the evolution of ice shelf hydrology and topographic features through time. On the floating Peterman Glacier tongue a sizable river exports water to the ocean. The surface hydrology of Nimrod Glacier, geometrically similar to Peterman but with ten times shallower surface slope, is dominated by storage in surface lakes. In contrast, the Nansen has the same surface slope as Nimrod but transports water through surface rivers. Slope alone is not the sole control on ice shelf hydrology. It is essential to track the storage and transport volumes for each of these systems. To estimate water storage and transport we analyze high resolution (40 cm - 2 m) modern and historical DEMs. We produce historical (1957 onwards) DEMs with structure-from-motion photogrammetry. The DEMs are used to constrain water storage potential estimates of observed basins and water routing/transport potential. We quantify the total volume of water stored seasonally and interannually. We use the normalize difference water index to map meltwater extent, and estimate lake water depth from optical data. We also consider the role of stored water in subsurface aquifers in recharging surface water after

Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.

2017-12-01

Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.

The distribution of ground ice on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, M. T.; Jakosky, B. M.

1993-01-01

A wealth of geologic evidence indicates that subsurface water ice has played an important role in the evolution of Martian landforms. Theoretical models of the stability of ground ice show that in the near-surface regolith ice is currently stable at latitudes poleward of about +/- 40 deg and below a depth of a few centimeters to a meter, with some variations with longitude. If ice is not previously present at a particular location where it is stable, atmospheric water will diffuse into the regolith and condense as ice, driven by the annual subsurface thermal oscillations. The lower boundary of this ice deposit is found to occur at a depth (typically a few meters) where the annual thermal oscillations give way to the geothermal gradient. In the equatorial regions near-surface ice is currently not stable, resulting in the sublimation of any existing ice and subsequent loss to the atmosphere. However, subliming ice might be maintained at a steady-state depth, where diffusion and loss to the atmosphere are balanced by resupply from a possible deeper source of water (either deeper, not yet depleted, ice deposits or ground water). This depth is typically a few tens to hundreds of meters and depends primarily on the surface temperature and the nature of the geothermal gradient, being deeper for a higher surface temperature and a lower geothermal gradient. Such an equatorial deposit is characterized by the regolith ice content being low nearer the surface and increasing with depth in the deposit. Oscillations in the orbit will affect this picture of ground ice in two ways: by causing periodic changes in the pattern of near-surface stability and by producing subsurface thermal waves that may be capable of driving water ice deeper into the regolith.

We Scream for Nano Ice Cream

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, M. Gail; Krebs, Denise L.; Banks, Alton J.

2011-01-01

There is a wide range of new products emerging from nanotechnology, and "nano ice cream" is an easy one that you can use to teach topics from surface area to volume applications. In this activity, students learn how ice cream can be made smoother and creamier tasting through nanoscience. By using liquid nitrogen to cool the cream mixture, students…

Development of a balloon-borne device for analysis of high-altitude ice and aerosol particulates: Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boaggio, K.; Bandamede, M.; Bancroft, L.; Hurler, K.; Magee, N. B.

2016-12-01

We report on details of continuing instrument development and deployment of a novel balloon-borne device for capturing and characterizing atmospheric ice and aerosol particles, the Ice Cryo Encapsulator by Balloon (ICE-Ball). The device is designed to capture and preserve cirrus ice particles, maintaining them at cold equilibrium temperatures, so that high-altitude particles can recovered, transferred intact, and then imaged under SEM at an unprecedented resolution (approximately 3 nm maximum resolution). In addition to cirrus ice particles, high altitude aerosol particles are also captured, imaged, and analyzed for geometry, chemical composition, and activity as ice nucleating particles. Prototype versions of ICE-Ball have successfully captured and preserved high altitude ice particles and aerosols, then returned them for recovery and SEM imaging and analysis. New improvements include 1) ability to capture particles from multiple narrowly-defined altitudes on a single payload, 2) high quality measurements of coincident temperature, humidity, and high-resolution video at capture altitude, 3) ability to capture particles during both ascent and descent, 4) better characterization of particle collection volume and collection efficiency, and 5) improved isolation and characterization of capture-cell cryo environment. This presentation provides detailed capability specifications for anyone interested in using measurements, collaborating on continued instrument development, or including this instrument in ongoing or future field campaigns.

Airframe Icing Research Gaps: NASA Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potapczuk, Mark

2009-01-01

qCurrent Airframe Icing Technology Gaps: Development of a full 3D ice accretion simulation model. Development of an improved simulation model for SLD conditions. CFD modeling of stall behavior for ice-contaminated wings/tails. Computational methods for simulation of stability and control parameters. Analysis of thermal ice protection system performance. Quantification of 3D ice shape geometric characteristics Development of accurate ground-based simulation of SLD conditions. Development of scaling methods for SLD conditions. Development of advanced diagnostic techniques for assessment of tunnel cloud conditions. Identification of critical ice shapes for aerodynamic performance degradation. Aerodynamic scaling issues associated with testing scale model ice shape geometries. Development of altitude scaling methods for thermal ice protections systems. Development of accurate parameter identification methods. Measurement of stability and control parameters for an ice-contaminated swept wing aircraft. Creation of control law modifications to prevent loss of control during icing encounters. 3D ice shape geometries. Collection efficiency data for ice shape geometries. SLD ice shape data, in-flight and ground-based, for simulation verification. Aerodynamic performance data for 3D geometries and various icing conditions. Stability and control parameter data for iced aircraft configurations. Thermal ice protection system data for simulation validation.

Antarctic Sea-Ice Freeboard and Estimated Thickness from NASA's ICESat and IceBridge Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yi, Donghui; Kurtz, Nathan; Harbeck, Jeremy; Manizade, Serdar; Hofton, Michelle; Cornejo, Helen G.; Zwally, H. Jay; Robbins, John

2016-01-01

ICESat completed 18 observational campaigns during its lifetime from 2003 to 2009. Data from all of the 18 campaign periods are used in this study. Most of the operational periods were between 34 and 38 days long. Because of laser failure and orbit transition from 8-day to 91-day orbit, there were four periods lasting 57, 16, 23, and 12 days. IceBridge data from 2009, 2010, and 2011 are used in this study. Since 2009, there are 19 Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) campaigns, and eight Land, Vegetation, and Ice Sensor (LVIS) campaigns over the Antarctic sea ice. Freeboard heights are derived from ICESat, ATM and LVIS elevation and waveform data. With nominal densities of snow, water, and sea ice, combined with snow depth data from AMSR-E/AMSR2 passive microwave observation over the southern ocean, sea-ice thickness is derived from the freeboard. Combined with AMSR-E/AMSR2 ice concentration, sea-ice area and volume are also calculated. During the 2003-2009 period, sea-ice freeboard and thickness distributions show clear seasonal variations that reflect the yearly cycle of the growth and decay of the Antarctic pack ice. We found no significant trend of thickness or area for the Antarctic sea ice during the ICESat period. IceBridge sea ice freeboard and thickness data from 2009 to 2011 over the Weddell Sea and Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas are compared with the ICESat results.

Calving fluxes and basal melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

PubMed

Depoorter, M A; Bamber, J L; Griggs, J A; Lenaerts, J T M; Ligtenberg, S R M; van den Broeke, M R; Moholdt, G

2013-10-03

Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-shelf base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Wear Characteristics and Volume Loss of CAD/CAM Ceramic Materials.

PubMed

Zurek, Alec D; Alfaro, Maria F; Wee, Alvin G; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Barao, Valentim A; Mathew, Mathew T; Sukotjo, Cortino

2018-03-06

In the field of prosthodontics, patients often require complex and extensive restorative care. This can involve the use of dental restorations to restore teeth on both the maxillary and mandibular arch. Current literature has evaluated the wear properties of different dental ceramics against enamel, but studies regarding dental ceramics opposing one another are limited. The purpose of this study was to assess the wear potential and wear behavior of CAD/CAM zirconia (ZR) and lithium disilicate (LD) materials against a similar ceramic material, and how the surface finish of these dental ceramics might affect patterns of wear. Using a sphere-on-plate tribometer system, different surface finishes (glazed-G and glazed then polished-GP) of ZR and LD were evaluated following wear simulation. Artificial saliva of physiologic pH was used as a lubricant during wear simulation at 37°C. The coefficient of friction (COF) was calculated during the wear simulation. After wear simulation was complete, volume loss, surface roughness, and surface characterization of the specimens were analyzed using white-light interferometry and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Statistical significance between materials and surface finish was established with two-way ANOVA and Bonferroni post hoc test (α = 0.05). Based on the 2-way ANOVA, material (p = 0.002) significantly affected the COF. LD showed a higher COF (p = 0.002) than ZR. Material (p < 0.001) and surface finish (p = 0.004) significantly affected the surface roughness inside the scar. ZR had significantly lower surface roughness compared to LD (p < 0.001). For outside scar, surface finish (p < 0.001) significantly affected the surface roughness. Polished specimens showed significantly higher roughness compared to glazed specimens for both inside (p = 0.004) and outside scar (p < 0.001). For volume loss, material (p < 0.001) and the interaction between material and surface finish (p < 0.001) were statistically significant. LD had

Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

2013-01-01

The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebrand, Diederik; de Bakker, Anouk T. M.; Beddow, Helen M.; Wilson, Paul A.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Ruessink, Gerben; Pälike, Heiko; Batenburg, Sietske J.; Hilgen, Frederik J.; Hodell, David A.; Huck, Claire E.; Kroon, Dick; Raffi, Isabella; Saes, Mischa J. M.; van Dijk, Arnold E.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-04-01

Understanding the stability of the early Antarctic ice cap in the geological past is of societal interest because present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached values comparable to those estimated for the Oligocene and the Early Miocene epochs. Here we analyze a new high-resolution deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from the South Atlantic Ocean spanning an interval between 30.1 My and 17.1 My ago. The record displays major oscillations in deep-sea temperature and Antarctic ice volume in response to the ˜110-ky eccentricity modulation of precession. Conservative minimum ice volume estimates show that waxing and waning of at least ˜85 to 110% of the volume of the present East Antarctic Ice Sheet is required to explain many of the ˜110-ky cycles. Antarctic ice sheets were typically largest during repeated glacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene (˜28.0 My to ˜26.3 My ago) and across the Oligocene-Miocene Transition (˜23.0 My ago). However, the high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene are highly symmetrical, indicating a more direct response to eccentricity modulation of precession than their Early Miocene counterparts, which are distinctly asymmetrical—indicative of prolonged ice buildup and delayed, but rapid, glacial terminations. We hypothesize that the long-term transition to a warmer climate state with sawtooth-shaped glacial cycles in the Early Miocene was brought about by subsidence and glacial erosion in West Antarctica during the Late Oligocene and/or a change in the variability of atmospheric CO2 levels on astronomical time scales that is not yet captured in existing proxy reconstructions.

Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages

PubMed Central

de Bakker, Anouk T. M.; Beddow, Helen M.; Wilson, Paul A.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Pälike, Heiko; Batenburg, Sietske J.; Hilgen, Frederik J.; Hodell, David A.; Huck, Claire E.; Kroon, Dick; Raffi, Isabella; Saes, Mischa J. M.; van Dijk, Arnold E.; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-01-01

Understanding the stability of the early Antarctic ice cap in the geological past is of societal interest because present-day atmospheric CO2 concentrations have reached values comparable to those estimated for the Oligocene and the Early Miocene epochs. Here we analyze a new high-resolution deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from the South Atlantic Ocean spanning an interval between 30.1 My and 17.1 My ago. The record displays major oscillations in deep-sea temperature and Antarctic ice volume in response to the ∼110-ky eccentricity modulation of precession. Conservative minimum ice volume estimates show that waxing and waning of at least ∼85 to 110% of the volume of the present East Antarctic Ice Sheet is required to explain many of the ∼110-ky cycles. Antarctic ice sheets were typically largest during repeated glacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene (∼28.0 My to ∼26.3 My ago) and across the Oligocene−Miocene Transition (∼23.0 My ago). However, the high-amplitude glacial−interglacial cycles of the mid-Oligocene are highly symmetrical, indicating a more direct response to eccentricity modulation of precession than their Early Miocene counterparts, which are distinctly asymmetrical—indicative of prolonged ice buildup and delayed, but rapid, glacial terminations. We hypothesize that the long-term transition to a warmer climate state with sawtooth-shaped glacial cycles in the Early Miocene was brought about by subsidence and glacial erosion in West Antarctica during the Late Oligocene and/or a change in the variability of atmospheric CO2 levels on astronomical time scales that is not yet captured in existing proxy reconstructions. PMID:28348211

Ice sheet-ocean interactions and sea level change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, Patrick

2014-03-01

Mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased rapidly since the mid-1990s. Their combined loss now accounts for about one-third of global sea level rise. In Greenland, a growing body of evidence points to the marine margins of these glaciers as the region from which this dynamic response originated. Similarly, ice streams in West Antarctica that feed vast floating ice shelves have exhibited large decadal changes. We review observational evidence and present physical mechanisms that might explain the observed changes, in particular in the context of ice sheet-ocean interactions. Processes involve cover 7 orders of magnitudes of scales, ranging from mm boundary-layer processes to basin-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean variability. We discuss observational needs to fill the gap in our mechanistic understanding.

Substantia Nigra Volume Loss Before Basal Forebrain Degeneration in Early Parkinson Disease

PubMed Central

Ziegler, David A.; Wonderlick, Julien S.; Ashourian, Paymon; Hansen, Leslie A.; Young, Jeremy C.; Murphy, Alex J.; Koppuzha, Cecily K.; Growdon, John H.; Corkin, Suzanne

2017-01-01

Objective To test the hypothesis that degeneration of the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) precedes that of the cholinergic basal forebrain (BF) in Parkinson disease (PD) using new multispectral structural magnetic resonance (MR) imaging tools to measure the volumes of the SNc and BF. Design Matched case-control study. Setting The Athinoula A. Martinos Imaging Center at the McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and the Massachusetts General Hospital/MIT Morris Udall Center of Excellence in Parkinson Disease Research. Patients Participants included 29 patients with PD (Hoehn and Yahr [H&Y] stages 1–3) and 27 matched healthy control subjects. Main Outcome Measures We acquired multiecho T1-weighted, multiecho proton density, T2-weighted, and T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences from each participant. For the SNc, we created a weighted mean of the multiple echoes, yielding a single volume with a high ratio of contrast to noise. We visualized the BF using T2-weighted FLAIR images. For each participant, we manually labeled the 2 structures and calculated their volumes. Results Relative to the controls, 13 patients with H&Y stage 1 PD had significantly decreased SNc volumes. Sixteen patients with H&Y stage 2 or 3 PD showed little additional volume loss. In contrast, the BF volume loss occurred later in the disease, with a significant decrease apparent in patients having H&Y stage 2 or 3 PD compared with the controls and the patients having H&Y stage 1 PD. The latter group did not differ significantly from the controls. Conclusion Our results support the proposed neuropathological trajectory in PD and establish novel multispectral methods as MR imaging biomarkers for tracking the degeneration of the SNc and BF. PMID:23183921

Integrating Observations and Models to Better Understand a Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.

2017-12-01

TThe loss of the Arctic sea ice cover has captured the world's attention. While much attention has been paid to the summer ice loss, changes are not limited to summer. The last few winters have seen record low sea ice extents, with 2017 marking the 3rdyear in a row with a new record low for the winter maximum extent. More surprising is the number of consecutive months between January 2016 through April 2017 with ice extent anomalies more than 2 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 mean. Additionally, October 2016 through April 2017 saw 7 consecutive months with record low extents, something that had not happened before in the last 4 decades of satellite observations. As larger parts of the Arctic Ocean become ice-free in summer, regional seas gradually transition from a perennial to a seasonal ice cover. The Barents Sea is already only seasonally ice covered, whereas the Kara Sea has recently lost most of its summer ice and is thereby starting to become a seasonally ice covered region. These changes serve as harbinger for what's to come for other Arctic seas. Given the rapid pace of change, there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the drivers behind Arctic sea ice loss, the implications of this ice loss and to predict future changes to better inform policy makers. Climate models play a fundamental role in helping us synthesize the complex elements of the Arctic sea ice system yet generally fail to simulate key features of the sea ice system and the pace of sea ice loss. Nevertheless, modeling advances continue to provide better means of diagnosing sea ice change, and new insights are likely to be gained with model output from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) aim is to better understand biases and errors in sea ice simulations so that we can improve our understanding of the likely future evolution of the sea ice cover and its impacts on global climate. To

Predicting the losses in sawtimber volume and quality from fires in oak-hickory forests.

Treesearch

Robert M. Loomis

1974-01-01

Presents a method for predicting future sawtimber losses due to fire-caused wounds. Losses are in terms of: (1) lumber value in dollars, (2) volume in board feet, (3) length of defect in feet, and (4) cross sectional area of defect in square inches. The methods apply to northern red, black, scarlet, white and chestnut oaks.

Snow and ice in a changing hydrological world.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, M.F.

1983-01-01

Snow cover on land (especially in the Northern Hemisphere) and sea ice (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) vary seasonally, and this seasonal change has an important affect on the world climate because snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation efficiently and affect other heat flow processes between atmosphere and land or ocean. Glaciers, including ice sheets, store most of the fresh water on Earth, but change dimensions relatively slowly. There is no clear evidence that the glacier ice volume currently is declining, but more needs to be known about mountain glacier and ice sheet mass balances. -from Author

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino; Kwok, Ronald; Martin, Seelye; Gordon, Arnold L.

2011-01-01

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Geodetic measurements reveal similarities between post-Last Glacial Maximum and present-day mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers

2016-09-01

Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year.

Geodetic measurements reveal similarities between post–Last Glacial Maximum and present-day mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Khan, Shfaqat A.; Sasgen, Ingo; Bevis, Michael; van Dam, Tonie; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Wahr, John; Willis, Michael; Kjær, Kurt H.; Wouters, Bert; Helm, Veit; Csatho, Beata; Fleming, Kevin; Bjørk, Anders A.; Aschwanden, Andy; Knudsen, Per; Munneke, Peter Kuipers

2016-01-01

Accurate quantification of the millennial-scale mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to global sea-level rise remain challenging because of sparse in situ observations in key regions. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the ongoing response of the solid Earth to ice and ocean load changes occurring since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 thousand years ago) and may be used to constrain the GrIS deglaciation history. We use data from the Greenland Global Positioning System network to directly measure GIA and estimate basin-wide mass changes since the LGM. Unpredicted, large GIA uplift rates of +12 mm/year are found in southeast Greenland. These rates are due to low upper mantle viscosity in the region, from when Greenland passed over the Iceland hot spot about 40 million years ago. This region of concentrated soft rheology has a profound influence on reconstructing the deglaciation history of Greenland. We reevaluate the evolution of the GrIS since LGM and obtain a loss of 1.5-m sea-level equivalent from the northwest and southeast. These same sectors are dominating modern mass loss. We suggest that the present destabilization of these marine-based sectors may increase sea level for centuries to come. Our new deglaciation history and GIA uplift estimates suggest that studies that use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission to infer present-day changes in the GrIS may have erroneously corrected for GIA and underestimated the mass loss by about 20 gigatons/year. PMID:27679819

Modeling of scattering from ice surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlberg, Michael Ross

Theoretical research is proposed to study electromagnetic wave scattering from ice surfaces. A mathematical formulation that is more representative of the electromagnetic scattering from ice, with volume mechanisms included, and capable of handling multiple scattering effects is developed. This research is essential to advancing the field of environmental science and engineering by enabling more accurate inversion of remote sensing data. The results of this research contributed towards a more accurate representation of the scattering from ice surfaces, that is computationally more efficient and that can be applied to many remote-sensing applications.

Combined Satellite - and ULS-Derived Sea-Ice Flux in the Weddell Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, M.; Liu, X.; Harms, S.

2000-01-01

Several years of daily microwave satellite ice-drift are combined with moored Upward Looking Sonar (ULS) ice-drafts into an ice volume flux record at points along a flux gate across the Weddell Sea, Antarctica.

Ice Core Records of Recent Northwest Greenland Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Wong, G. J.; Ferris, D.; Lutz, E.; Howley, J. A.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.; Hawley, R. L.

2014-12-01

Meteorological station data from NW Greenland indicate a 3oC temperature rise since 1990, with most of the warming occurring in fall and winter. According to remote sensing data, the NW Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and coastal ice caps are responding with ice mass loss and margin retreat, but the cryosphere's response to previous climate variability is poorly constrained in this region. We are developing multi-proxy records (lake sediment cores, ice cores, glacial geologic data, glaciological models) of Holocene climate change and cryospheric response in NW Greenland to improve projections of future ice loss and sea level rise in a warming climate. As part of our efforts to develop a millennial-length ice core paleoclimate record from the Thule region, we collected and analyzed snow pit samples and short firn cores (up to 21 m) from the coastal region of the GIS (2Barrel site; 76.9317o N, 63.1467o W, 1685 m el.) and the summit of North Ice Cap (76.938o N, 67.671o W, 1273 m el.) in 2011, 2012 and 2014. The 2Barrel ice core record has statistically significant relationships with regional spring and fall Baffin Bay sea ice extent, summertime temperature, and annual precipitation. Here we evaluate relationships between the 2014 North Ice Cap firn core glaciochemical record and climate variability from regional instrumental stations and reanalysis datasets. We compare the coastal North Ice Cap record to more inland records from 2Barrel, Camp Century and NEEM to evaluate spatial and elevational gradients in recent NW Greenland climate change.

History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Funder, S.; Marshall, S.J.; Miller, G.H.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Muhs, D.R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Polyak, L.; White, J.W.C.

2010-01-01

Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.

Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan-Karakoram region using different methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Machguth, H.; Huss, M.; Huggel, C.; Bajracharya, S.; Bolch, T.; Kulkarni, A.; Linsbauer, A.; Salzmann, N.; Stoffel, M.

2014-12-01

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000-2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km2. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km3, depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

State of Arctic Sea Ice North of Svalbard during N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rösel, Anja; King, Jennifer; Gerland, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The N-ICE2015 cruise, led by the Norwegian Polar Institute, was a drift experiment with the research vessel R/V Lance from January to June 2015, where the ship started the drift North of Svalbard at 83°14.45' N, 21°31.41' E. The drift was repeated as soon as the vessel drifted free. Altogether, 4 ice stations where installed and the complex ocean-sea ice-atmosphere system was studied with an interdisciplinary Approach. During the N-ICE2015 cruise, extensive ice thickness and snow depth measurements were performed during both, winter and summer conditions. Total ice and snow thickness was measured with ground-based and airborne electromagnetic instruments; snow depth was measured with a GPS snow depth probe. Additionally, ice mass balance and snow buoys were deployed. Snow and ice thickness measurements were performed on repeated transects to quantify the ice growth or loss as well as the snow accumulation and melt rate. Additionally, we collected independent values on surveys to determine the general ice thickness distribution. Average snow depths of 32 cm on first year ice, and 52 cm on multi-year ice were measured in January, the mean snow depth on all ice types even increased until end of March to 49 cm. The average total ice and snow thickness in winter conditions was 1.92 m. During winter we found a small growth rate on multi-year ice of about 15 cm in 2 months, due to above-average snow depths and some extraordinary storm events that came along with mild temperatures. In contrast thereto, we also were able to study new ice formation and thin ice on newly formed leads. In summer conditions an enormous melt rate, mainly driven by a warm Atlantic water inflow in the marginal ice zone, was observed during two ice stations with melt rates of up to 20 cm per 24 hours. To reinforce the local measurements around the ship and to confirm their significance on a larger scale, we compare them to airborne thickness measurements and classified SAR-satellite scenes. The

Investigation of Controls on Ice Dynamics in Northeast Greenland from Ice-Thickness Change Record Using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.

2015-12-01

the last 40 years. Through the use of ISSM, we examine possible mechanism explaining the observed changes. The improved understanding gained through this research will contribute better projections of future ice loss from this most vulnerable region of the GrIS.

Envelope Protection for In-Flight Ice Contamination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gingras, David R.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Ranaudo, Richard J.; Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2010-01-01

Fatal loss-of-control (LOC) accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this paper directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combinations of a-priori information and realtime aerodynamic estimations are shown to provide sufficient input for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during in-flight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system has been designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. Components of ICEPro are described and results from preliminary tests are presented.

The Antarctica component of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5a) based on GPS positioning, exposure age dating of ice thicknesses, and relative sea level histories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Argus, Donald F.; Peltier, W. R.; Drummond, R.; Moore, Angelyn W.

2014-07-01

A new model of the deglaciation history of Antarctica over the past 25 kyr has been developed, which we refer to herein as ICE-6G_C (VM5a). This revision of its predecessor ICE-5G (VM2) has been constrained to fit all available geological and geodetic observations, consisting of: (1) the present day uplift rates at 42 sites estimated from GPS measurements, (2) ice thickness change at 62 locations estimated from exposure-age dating, (3) Holocene relative sea level histories from 12 locations estimated on the basis of radiocarbon dating and (4) age of the onset of marine sedimentation at nine locations along the Antarctic shelf also estimated on the basis of 14C dating. Our new model fits the totality of these data well. An additional nine GPS-determined site velocities are also estimated for locations known to be influenced by modern ice loss from the Pine Island Bay and Northern Antarctic Peninsula regions. At the 42 locations not influenced by modern ice loss, the quality of the fit of postglacial rebound model ICE-6G_C (VM5A) is characterized by a weighted root mean square residual of 0.9 mm yr-1. The Southern Antarctic Peninsula is inferred to be rising at 2 mm yr-1, requiring there to be less Holocene ice loss there than in the prior model ICE-5G (VM2). The East Antarctica coast is rising at approximately 1 mm yr-1, requiring ice loss from this region to have been small since Last Glacial Maximum. The Ellsworth Mountains, at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula, are inferred to be rising at 5-8 mm yr-1, indicating large ice loss from this area during deglaciation that is poorly sampled by geological data. Horizontal deformation of the Antarctic Plate is minor with two exceptions. First, O'Higgins, at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, is moving southeast at a significant 2 mm yr-1 relative to the Antarctic Plate. Secondly, the margins of the Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves are moving horizontally away from the shelf centres at an approximate rate of 0.8 mm yr-1, in

Environmental and ice volume changes based on seismic stratigraphy in Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica: Preliminary results from NBP1402

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, S. P. S.; Fernandez-Vasquez, R. A.; Frederick, B.; Saustrup, S., Sr.; Domack, E. W.; Lavoie, C.; Shevenell, A.; Blankenship, D. D.; Leventer, A.

2014-12-01

In 2014, the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer (NBP1402) sailed to a virtually unexplored continental shelf along the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica. The shelf contains the sedimentary record of environmental and ice volume changes within the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), which is presently occupied by ~7 m sea level-rise equivalent of ice. We acquired 750 km of high-resolution seismic data proximal to the Reynolds Trough and Moscow University Ice Shelf glacial systems west of the Dalton Ice Tongue using dual 45/45 cu. in. G.I. guns and a 24 ch. streamer with 3.125 m groups providing a vertical resolution of ~3 m simultaneously with CHIRP data. These are the first images of this margin acquired and show a remarkable set of sequence stratigraphic transitions. Crystalline basement is at the seafloor landward and buried seaward with a transition to smoother reflection interface. Reflective sedimentary strata overlie the basement, dip seaward, and are capped by a landward-dipping regional angular unconformity. Above this are a series of transparent seismic facies that, along with the middle to outer shelf seafloor, dip landward towards a shelf-oblique glacial trough. The older, seaward-dipping strata include a deeper series of units that display at least three stratal architectures interpreted to be shelf deltas implying a pre-glacial, fluvial environment within the drainage basin. Above these sequences, the seismic facies transition to surfaces exhibiting significant erosion, small u-shaped valleys, and channel fill sequences, all of which are reminiscent of temperate glacial features. We interpret these sequences as including sub-ice tunnel valleys and grounding zone wedges with interspersed non-glacial to pro-glacial deposits. Increasing glaciogenic facies upsection suggests a gradual fluvial to glacial transition and increasing glacial extent with time. The subsequent transition to ice sheets is marked by erosion to basement landward and the angular unconformity seaward

Variability of Fram Strait Ice Flux and North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron

1999-01-01

An important term in the mass balance of the Arctic Ocean sea ice is the ice export. We estimated the winter sea ice export through the Fram Strait using ice motion from satellite passive microwave data and ice thickness data from moored upward looking sonars. The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978-1996) is 670,000 square km, approximately 7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 sq. km in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 sq km in 1995. The daily, monthly and interannual variabilities of the ice area flux are high. There is an upward trend in the ice area flux over the 18-year record. The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 cubic km ranging from a low of 1375 cubic km in 1990 to a high of 2791 cubic km in 1994. The sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait explains more than 80% of the variance in the ice flux over the 18-year record. We use the coefficients from the regression of the time-series of area flux versus pressure gradient across the Fram Strait and ice thickness data to estimate the summer area and volume flux. The average 12-month area flux and volume flux are 919,000 sq km and 2366 cubic km. We find a significant correlation (R =0.86) between the area flux and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the months of December through March. Correlation between our six years of volume flux estimates and the NAO index gives R =0.56. During the high NAO years, a more intense Icelandic low increases the gradient in the sea-level pressure by almost 1 mbar across the Fram Strait thus increasing the atmospheric forcing on ice transport. Correlation is reduced during the negative NAO years because of decreased dominance of this large-scale atmospheric pattern on the sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait. Additional information is contained in the original.

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Weakening of ice by magnesium perchlorate hydrate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenferinka, Hendrick J.; Durhama, William B.; Sternb, Laura A.; Patharec, Asmin V.

2013-01-01

We show that perchlorate hydrates, which have been detected at high circumpolar martian latitudes, have a dramatic effect upon the rheological behavior of polycrystalline water ice under conditions applicable to the North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD). We conducted subsolidus creep tests on mixtures of ice and magnesium perchlorate hydrate, Mg(ClO4)2·6H2O (MP6), of 0.02, 0.05, 0.10, and 0.47 volume fraction MP6. We found these mixtures to be increasingly weak with increasing MP6 content. For mixtures with ⩽0.10 volume fraction MP6, we resolved a stress exponent of n ≈ 2 at low stresses transitioning to n ≈ 4 above 10 MPa. Scanning electron microscopy of deformed specimens revealed MP6 to be distributed as an interconnected film between ice grains. These results suggest that grain boundary sliding (GBS) may be enhanced with respect to pure ice. As the enhancement of GBS is expected in polycrystalline aggregates containing a few percent melt or otherwise weak material distributed along grain boundaries, the observed n ≈ 2 is consistent with the mutual accommodation of basal slip and GBS. If ice containing trace concentrations of MP6 is also much weaker than pure ice at low stresses, flow in the NPLD could be significantly enhanced, particularly at the warmer basal temperatures associated with higher martian obliquities.

Lunar polar ice deposits: scientific and utilization objectives of the Lunar Ice Discovery Mission proposal.

PubMed

Duke, Michael B

2002-03-01

The Clementine mission has revived interest in the possibility that ice exists in shadowed craters near the lunar poles. Theoretically, the problem is complex, with several possible sources of water (meteoroid, asteroid, comet impact), several possible loss mechanisms (impact vaporization, sputtering, photoionization), and burial by meteorite impact. Opinions of modelers have ranged from no ice to several times 10(16) g of ice in the cold traps. Clementine bistatic radar data have been interpreted in favor of the presence of ice, while Arecibo radar data do not confirm its presence. The Lunar Prospector mission, planned to be flown in the fall of 1997, could gather new evidence for the existence of ice. If ice is present, both scientific and utilitarian objectives would be addressed by a lunar polar rover, such as that proposed to the NASA Discovery program, but not selected. The lunar polar rover remains the best way to understand the distribution and characteristics of lunar polar ice. c2002 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Channelized melting drives thinning under Dotson ice shelf, Western Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourmelen, N.; Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Henley, S. F.; Bingham, R. G.; Kimura, S.; Hogg, A.; Shepherd, A.; Mouginot, J.; Lenaerts, J.; Ligtenberg, S.; Van De Berg, W. J.

2017-12-01

The majority of meteoric ice that forms in West Antarctica leaves the ice sheet through floating ice shelves, many of which have been thinning substantially over the last 25 years. A significant proportion of ice-shelf thinning has been driven by submarine melting facilitated by increased access of relatively warm (>0.6oC) modified Circumpolar Deep Water to sub-shelf cavities. Ice shelves play a significant role in stabilising the ice sheet from runaway retreat and regulating its contribution to sea level change. Ice-shelf melting has also been implicated in sustaining high primary productivity in Antarctica's coastal seas. However, these processes vary regionally and are not fully understood. Under some ice shelves, concentrated melting leads to the formation of inverted channels. These channels guide buoyant melt-laden outflow, which can lead to localised melting of the sea ice cover. The channels may also potentially lead to heightened crevassing, which in turn affects ice-shelf stability. Meanwhile, numerical studies suggest that buttressing loss is sensitive to the location of ice removal within an ice-shelf. Thus it is important that we observe spatial patterns, as well as magnitudes, of ice-shelf thinning, in order to improve understanding of the ocean drivers of thinning and of their impacts on ice-shelf stability. Here we show from high-resolution altimetry measurements acquired between 2010 to 2016 that Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focussed along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. The coupled effect of geostrophic circulation and ice-shelf topography leads to the observed concentration of basal melting. Analysis of previous datasets suggests that this process has been ongoing for at least the last 25 years. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel would melt through within 40-50 years, almost two centuries before it is

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barahona, D.

2012-01-01

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be

Fluctuating Arctic Sea ice thickness changes estimated by an in situ learned and empirically forced neural network model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belchansky, G.I.; Douglas, David C.; Platonov, Nikita G.

2008-01-01

Sea ice thickness (SIT) is a key parameter of scientific interest because understanding the natural spatiotemporal variability of ice thickness is critical for improving global climate models. In this paper, changes in Arctic SIT during 1982-2003 are examined using a neural network (NN) algorithm trained with in situ submarine ice draft and surface drilling data. For each month of the study period, the NN individually estimated SIT of each ice-covered pixel (25-km resolution) based on seven geophysical parameters (four shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, ice drift velocity, and ice divergence/convergence) that were cumulatively summed at each monthly position along the pixel's previous 3-yr drift track (or less if the ice was <3 yr old). Average January SIT increased during 1982-88 in most regions of the Arctic (+7.6 ?? 0.9 cm yr-1), decreased through 1996 Arctic-wide (-6.1 ?? 1.2 cm yr-1), then modestly increased through 2003 mostly in the central Arctic (+2.1 ?? 0.6 cm yr-1). Net ice volume change in the Arctic Ocean from 1982 to 2003 was negligible, indicating that cumulative ice growth had largely replaced the estimated 45 000 km3 of ice lost by cumulative export. Above 65??N, total annual ice volume and interannual volume changes were correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at decadal and annual time scales, respectively. Late-summer ice thickness and total volume varied proportionally until the mid-1990s, but volume did not increase commensurate with the thickening during 1996-2002. The authors speculate that decoupling of the ice thickness-volume relationship resulted from two opposing mechanisms with different latitudinal expressions: a recent quasi-decadal shift in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the AO's neutral state facilitated ice thickening at high latitudes while anomalously warm thermal forcing thinned and melted the ice cap at its periphery. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

2017-04-01

Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

Recent Changes in Ices Mass Balance of the Amundsen Sea Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Rignot, E. J.; Mouginot, J.; Flament, T.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van Wessem, M.; Reijmer, C.

2014-12-01

The glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) sector of West Antarctica were confirmed in the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) to be the dominant contributors to the current Antarctic ice mass loss, and recently recognized to be undergoing marine ice sheet instability. Here, we investigate their regional ice mass balance using a time series of satellite and airborne data combined with model output products from the Regional Atmospheric and Climate Model (RACMO). Our dataset includes laser altimetry from NASA's ICESat-1 satellite mission and from Operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne surveys, satellite radar altimetry data from ESA's Envisat mission, time-variable gravity data from NASA/DLR's GRACE mission, surface mass balance products from RACMO, ice velocity from a combination of international synthetic aperture radar satellites and ice thickness data from OIB. We find a record of ice mass balance for the ASE where all the analyzed techniques agree remarkably in magnitude and temporal variability. The mass loss of the region has been increasing continuously since 1992, with no indication of a slow down. The mass loss during the common period averaged 91 Gt/yr and accelerated 20 Gt/yr2. In 1992-2013, the ASE contributed 4.5 mm global sea level rise. Overall, our results demonstrate the synergy of multiple analysis techniques for examining Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance at the regional scale. This work was performed at UCI and JPL under a contract with NASA.

The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahr, D.B.; Meier, M.F.; Peckham, S.D.

1997-01-01

Ice volumes are known for only a few of the roughly 160,000 glaciers worldwide but are important components of many climate and sea level studies which require water flux estimates. A scaling analysis of the mass and momentum conservation equations shows that glacier volumes can be related by a power law to more easily observed glacier surface areas. The relationship requires four closure choices for the scaling behavior of glacier widths, slopes, side drag and mass balance. Reasonable closures predict a volume-area scaling exponent which is consistent with observations, giving a physical and practical basis for estimating ice volumes. Glacier volume is insensitive to perturbations in the mass balance scaling, but changes in average accumulation area ratios reflect significant changes in the scaling of both mass balance and ice volume. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

The possibility of a tipping point in the Arctic sea ice cover, and associated early-warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jastamin Steene, Rebekka

2017-04-01

As the Arctic sea ice has become one of the primer indicators of global climate change, with a seemingly accelerated loss in both ice extent and volume the latest decades, the existence of a tipping point related to the Arctic sea ice cover has been widely debated. Several observed and potential abrupt transitions in the climate system may be interpreted as bifurcations in randomly driven dynamical systems. This means that a system approaching a bifurcation point shifts from one stable state to another, and we say that the system is subject to a critical transition. As the equilibrium states become unstable in the vicinity of a bifurcation point the characteristic relaxation times increases, and the system is said to experience a "critical slowing down". This makes it plausible to observe so called early-warning signals (EWS) when approaching a critical transition. In the Arctic non-linear mechanisms like the temperature response of the ice-albedo feedback can potentially cause a sudden shift to an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Using bifurcation theory and potential analyses we examine time series of observational data of the Arctic sea ice, investigating the possibility of multiple states in the behavior of the ice cover. We further debate whether a shift between states is irreversible, and whether it can be preluded by early-warning signals.