Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

2009-12-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Determined from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

The compiled, quality-controlled satellite multichannel passive-microwave record of polar sea ice now spans over 18 years, from November 1978 through December 1996, and is revealing considerable information about the Arctic sea ice cover and its variability. The information includes data on ice concentrations (percent areal coverages of ice), ice extents, ice melt, ice velocities, the seasonal cycle of the ice, the interannual variability of the ice, the frequency of ice coverage, and the length of the sea ice season. The data reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 sq km, while individual regions experienced much greater percent variations, for instance, with the Greenland Sea having a range of 740,000 - 1,110,000 sq km in its yearly maximum ice coverage. In spite of the large variations from year to year and region to region, overall the Arctic ice extents showed a statistically significant, 2.80% / decade negative trend over the 18.2-year period. Ice season lengths, which vary from only a few weeks near the ice margins to the full year in the large region of perennial ice coverage, also experienced interannual variability, along with spatially coherent overall trends. Linear least squares trends show the sea ice season to have lengthened in much of the Bering Sea, Baffin Bay, the Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea, but to have shortened over a much larger area, including the Sea of Okhotsk, the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, and the southeastern Arctic.

Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Volume 2010-2013 from CryoSat-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilling, R.; Ridout, A.; Wingham, D.; Shepherd, A.; Haas, C.; Farrell, S. L.; Schweiger, A. J.; Zhang, J.; Giles, K.; Laxon, S.

2013-12-01

Satellite records show a decline in Arctic sea ice extent over the past three decades with a record minimum in September 2012, and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) suggest that this has been accompanied by a reduction in volume. We use three years of measurements recorded by the European Space Agency CryoSat-2 (CS-2) mission, validated with in situ data, to generate estimates of seasonal variations and inter-annual trends in Arctic sea ice volume between 2010 and 2013. The CS-2 estimates of sea ice thickness agree with in situ estimates derived from upward looking sonar measurements of ice draught and airborne measurements of ice thickness and freeboard to within 0.1 metres. Prior to the record minimum in summer 2012, autumn and winter Arctic sea ice volume had fallen by ~1300 km3 relative to the previous year. Using the full 3-year period of CS-2 observations, we estimate that winter Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by ~700 km3/yr since 2010, approximately twice the average rate since 1980 as predicted by the PIOMAS.

Mapping and Assessing Variability in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone, the Pack Ice and Coastal Polynyas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne; Jenouvrier, Stephanie

2016-04-01

Sea ice variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and polynyas plays an important role for phytoplankton productivity and krill abundance. Therefore mapping their spatial extent, seasonal and interannual variability is essential for understanding how current and future changes in these biological active regions may impact the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Knowledge of the distribution of different ice types to the total Antarctic sea ice cover may also help to shed light on the factors contributing towards recent expansion of the Antarctic ice cover in some regions and contraction in others. The long-term passive microwave satellite data record provides the longest and most consistent data record for assessing different ice types. However, estimates of the amount of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and polynyas depends strongly on what sea ice algorithm is used. This study uses two popular passive microwave sea ice algorithms, the NASA Team and Bootstrap to evaluate the distribution and variability in the MIZ, the consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas. Results reveal the NASA Team algorithm has on average twice the MIZ and half the consolidated pack ice area as the Bootstrap algorithm. Polynya area is also larger in the NASA Team algorithm, and the timing of maximum polynya area may differ by as much as 5 months between algorithms. These differences lead to different relationships between sea ice characteristics and biological processes, as illustrated here with the breeding success of an Antarctic seabird.

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

Validation of sea ice models using an uncertainty-based distance metric for multiple model variables: NEW METRIC FOR SEA ICE MODEL VALIDATION

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Urban, Nathan M.; ...

2017-04-01

Here, we implement a variance-based distance metric (D n) to objectively assess skill of sea ice models when multiple output variables or uncertainties in both model predictions and observations need to be considered. The metric compares observations and model data pairs on common spatial and temporal grids improving upon highly aggregated metrics (e.g., total sea ice extent or volume) by capturing the spatial character of model skill. The D n metric is a gamma-distributed statistic that is more general than the χ 2 statistic commonly used to assess model fit, which requires the assumption that the model is unbiased andmore » can only incorporate observational error in the analysis. The D n statistic does not assume that the model is unbiased, and allows the incorporation of multiple observational data sets for the same variable and simultaneously for different variables, along with different types of variances that can characterize uncertainties in both observations and the model. This approach represents a step to establish a systematic framework for probabilistic validation of sea ice models. The methodology is also useful for model tuning by using the D n metric as a cost function and incorporating model parametric uncertainty as part of a scheme to optimize model functionality. We apply this approach to evaluate different configurations of the standalone Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) encompassing the parametric uncertainty in the model, and to find new sets of model configurations that produce better agreement than previous configurations between model and observational estimates of sea ice concentration and thickness.« less

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

Variability of Arctic Sea Ice as Viewed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1998-01-01

Over the past 20 years, satellite passive-microwave radiometry has provided a marvelous means for obtaining information about the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and particularly about sea ice concentrations (% areal coverages) and from them ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season. This ability derives from the sharp contrast between the microwave emissions of sea ice versus liquid water and allows routine monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover, which typically varies in extent from a minimum of about 8,000,000 sq km in September to a maximum of about 15,000,000 sq km in March, the latter value being over 1.5 times the area of either the United States or Canada. The vast Arctic ice cover has many impacts, including hindering heat, mass, and y momentum exchanges between the oceans and the atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the Earth's surface, affecting freshwater transports and ocean circulation, and serving as a vital surface for many species of polar animals. These direct impacts also lead to indirect impacts, including effects on local and perhaps global atmospheric temperatures, effects that are being examined in general circulation modeling studies, where preliminary results indicate that changes on the order of a few percent sea ice concentration can lead to temperature changes of 1 K or greater even in local areas outside of the sea ice region. Satellite passive-microwave data for November 1978 through December 1996 reveal marked regional and interannual variabilities in both the ice extents and the lengths of the sea ice season, as well as some statistically significant trends. For the north polar ice cover as a whole, maximum ice extents varied over a range of 14,700,000 - 15,900,000 km(2), while individual regions showed much greater percentage variations, e.g., with the Greenland Sea experiencing a range of 740,000 - 1,1110,000 km(2) in its yearly maximum ice coverage. Although variations from year to

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

PubMed

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

2014-12-01

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players.

PubMed

Janot, Jeffrey M; Beltz, Nicholas M; Dalleck, Lance D

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key pointsThe 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed.In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity.Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches can

Multiple Off-Ice Performance Variables Predict On-Ice Skating Performance in Male and Female Division III Ice Hockey Players

PubMed Central

Janot, Jeffrey M.; Beltz, Nicholas M.; Dalleck, Lance D.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if off-ice performance variables could predict on-ice skating performance in Division III collegiate hockey players. Both men (n = 15) and women (n = 11) hockey players (age = 20.5 ± 1.4 years) participated in the study. The skating tests were agility cornering S-turn, 6.10 m acceleration, 44.80 m speed, modified repeat skate, and 15.20 m full speed. Off-ice variables assessed were years of playing experience, height, weight and percent body fat and off-ice performance variables included vertical jump (VJ), 40-yd dash (36.58m), 1-RM squat, pro-agility, Wingate peak power and peak power percentage drop (% drop), and 1.5 mile (2.4km) run. Results indicated that 40-yd dash (36.58m), VJ, 1.5 mile (2.4km) run, and % drop were significant predictors of skating performance for repeat skate (slowest, fastest, and average time) and 44.80 m speed time, respectively. Four predictive equations were derived from multiple regression analyses: 1) slowest repeat skate time = 2.362 + (1.68 x 40-yd dash time) + (0.005 x 1.5 mile run), 2) fastest repeat skate time = 9.762 - (0.089 x VJ) - (0.998 x 40-yd dash time), 3) average repeat skate time = 7.770 + (1.041 x 40-yd dash time) - (0.63 x VJ) + (0.003 x 1.5 mile time), and 4) 47.85 m speed test = 7.707 - (0.050 x VJ) - (0.01 x % drop). It was concluded that selected off-ice tests could be used to predict on-ice performance regarding speed and recovery ability in Division III male and female hockey players. Key points The 40-yd dash (36.58m) and vertical jump tests are significant predictors of on-ice skating performance specific to speed. In addition to 40-yd dash and vertical jump, the 1.5 mile (2.4km) run for time and percent power drop from the Wingate anaerobic power test were also significant predictors of skating performance that incorporates the aspect of recovery from skating activity. Due to the specificity of selected off-ice variables as predictors of on-ice performance, coaches

Interannual variability of monthly Southern Ocean sea ice distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

The interannual variability of the Southern-Ocean sea-ice distributions was mapped and analyzed using data from Nimbus-5 ESMR and Nimbus-7 SMMR, collected from 1973 to 1987. The set of 12 monthly maps obtained reveals many details on spatial variability that are unobtainable from time series of ice extents. These maps can be used as baseline maps for comparisons against future Southern Ocean sea ice distributions. The maps are supplemented by more detailed maps of the frequency of ice coverage, presented in this paper for one month within each of the four seasons, and by the breakdown of these results to the periods covered individually by each of the two passive-microwave imagers.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few

Effects of ice shelf basal melt variability on evolution of Thwaites Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Fyke, J. G.; Price, S. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Perego, M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling, and observations indicate that marine ice sheets on a retrograde bed, including Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, are only conditionally stable. Previous modeling studies have shown that rapid, unstable retreat can occur when steady ice-shelf basal melting causes the grounding line to retreat past restraining bedrock bumps. Here we explore the initiation and evolution of unstable retreat of Thwaites Glacier when the ice-shelf basal melt forcing includes temporal variability mimicking realistic climate variability. We use the three-dimensional, higher-order Model for Prediction Across Scales-Land Ice (MPASLI) model forced with an ice shelf basal melt parameterization derived from previous coupled ice sheet/ocean simulations. We add sinusoidal temporal variability to the melt parameterization that represents shoaling and deepening of Circumpolar Deep Water. We perform an ensemble of 250 year duration simulations with different values for the amplitude, period, and phase of the variability. Preliminary results suggest that, overall, variability leads to slower grounding line retreat and less mass loss than steady simulations. Short period (2 yr) variability leads to similar results as steady forcing, whereas decadal variability can result in up to one-third less mass loss. Differences in phase lead to a large range in mass loss/grounding line retreat, but it is always less than the steady forcing. The timing of ungrounding from each restraining bedrock bump, which is strongly affected by the melt variability, is the rate limiting factor, and variability-driven delays in ungrounding at each bump accumulate. Grounding line retreat in the regions between bedrock bumps is relatively unaffected by ice shelf melt variability. While the results are sensitive to the form of the melt parameterization and its variability, we conclude that decadal period ice shelf melt variability could potentially delay marine ice sheet instability by up to many decades. However

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Arctic Sea Ice: A Comparison between AO-FVCOM and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Chen, C.; Beardsley, R. C.; Gao, G.; Qi, J.; Lin, H.

2016-02-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the Arctic sea ice over the period 1978-2014. Good agreements were found between simulated and observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, indicating that the AO-FVCOM captured not only the seasonal and interannual variability but also the spatial distribution of the sea ice in the Arctic in the past 37 years. Compared with other six Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher correlation coefficient and a smaller difference with observations. An effort was also made to examine the physical processes attributing to the model-produced bias in the sea ice simulation. The error in the direction of the ice drift velocity was sensitive to the wind turning angle; smaller when the wind was stronger, but larger when the wind was weaker. This error could lead to the bias in the near-surface current in the fully or partially ice-covered zone where the ice-sea interfacial stress was a major driving force.

Inception and variability of the Antarctic ice sheet across the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Galeotti, Simone; Ladant, Jan-Baptiste; DeConto, Robert; Vermeersen, Bert; Rugenstein, Maria

2014-05-01

Climate cooling throughout middle to late Eocene (~48 - 34 Million years ago, Ma) triggered the transition from hot-house to ice-house conditions. Based on deep-sea marine δ18O values, a continental-scale Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) rapidly developed across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) in two ~200 kyr-spaced phases between 34.0 - 33.5 Ma. Regardless of the geographical configuration of southern ocean gateways, geochemical data and ice-sheet modelling show that AIS glaciation initiated as atmospheric CO2 fell below ~2.5 times pre-industrial values. AIS likely reached or even exceeded present-day dimensions. Quantifying the magnitude and timing of AIS volume variations by means of δ18O records is hampered by the fact that the latter reflect a coupled signal of temperature and ice-sheet volume. Besides, bathymetric variations based on marine geologic sections are affected by large uncertainties and, most importantly, reflect the local response of relative sea level (rsl) to ice volume fluctuations rather than the global eustatic signal. AIS proximal and Northern Hemisphere (NH) marine settings show an opposite trend of rsl change across the EOT. In fact, consistently with central values based on δ18O records, an 60 ± 20m rsl drop is estimated from NH low-latitude shallow marine sequences. Conversely, sedimentary facies from shallow shelfal areas in the proximity of the AIS witness an 50 - 150m rsl rise across the EOT. Accounting for ice-load-induced crustal and geoidal deformations and for the mutual gravitational attraction between the growing AIS and the ocean water is a necessary requirement to reconcile near- and far-field rsl sites, regardless of tectonics and of any other possible local contamination. In this work we investigate the AIS inception and variability across the EOT by combining the observed rsl changes with predictions based on numerical modeling of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). We solve the gravitationally self-consistent Sea Level

Characterizing Arctic Sea Ice Topography Using High-Resolution IceBridge Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, Alek; Tsamados, Michel; Kurtz, Nathan; Farrell, Sinead; Newman, Thomas; Harbeck, Jeremy; Feltham, Daniel; Richter-Menge, Jackie

2016-01-01

We present an analysis of Arctic sea ice topography using high resolution, three-dimensional, surface elevation data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper, flown as part of NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. Surface features in the sea ice cover are detected using a newly developed surface feature picking algorithm. We derive information regarding the height, volume and geometry of surface features from 2009-2014 within the Beaufort/Chukchi and Central Arctic regions. The results are delineated by ice type to estimate the topographic variability across first-year and multi-year ice regimes.

Delayed build-up of Arctic ice sheets during 400,000-year minima in insolation variability.

PubMed

Hao, Qingzhen; Wang, Luo; Oldfield, Frank; Peng, Shuzhen; Qin, Li; Song, Yang; Xu, Bing; Qiao, Yansong; Bloemendal, Jan; Guo, Zhengtang

2012-10-18

Knowledge of the past variability of climate at high northern latitudes during astronomical analogues of the present interglacial may help to inform our understanding of future climate change. Unfortunately, long-term continuous records of ice-sheet variability in the Northern Hemisphere only are scarce because records of benthic (18)O content represent an integrated signal of changes in ice volume in both polar regions. However, variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets influence the Siberian High (an atmospheric pressure system), so variations in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)--as recorded in the aeolian dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau--can serve as a useful proxy of Arctic climate variability before the ice-core record begins. Here we present an EAWM proxy record using grain-size variations in two parallel loess sections representative of sequences across the whole of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 900,000 years. The results show that during periods of low eccentricity and precessional variability at approximately 400,000-year intervals, the grain-size-inferred intensity of the EAWM remains weak for up to 20,000 years after the end of the interglacial episode of high summer monsoon activity and strong pedogenesis. In contrast, there is a rapid increase in the EAWM after the end of most other interglacials. We conclude that, for both the 400,000-year interglacials, the weak EAWM winds maintain a mild, non-glacial climate at high northern latitudes for much longer than expected from the conventional loess and marine oxygen isotope records. During these times, the less-severe summer insolation minima at 65° N (ref. 4) would have suppressed ice and snow accumulation, leading to a weak Siberian High and, consequently, weak EAWM winds.

Arctic Sea Ice: Trends, Stability and Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Woosok

A stochastic Arctic sea-ice model is derived and analyzed in detail to interpret the recent decay and associated variability of Arctic sea-ice under changes in greenhouse gas forcing widely referred to as global warming. The approach begins from a deterministic model of the heat flux balance through the air/sea/ice system, which uses observed monthly-averaged heat fluxes to drive a time evolution of sea-ice thickness. This model reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of the ice cover and it is to this that stochastic noise---representing high frequency variability---is introduced. The model takes the form of a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation. Following an introductory chapter, the two that follow focus principally on the properties of the deterministic model in order to identify the main properties governing the stability of the ice cover. In chapter 2 the underlying time-dependent solutions to the deterministic model are analyzed for their stability. It is found that the response time-scale of the system to perturbations is dominated by the destabilizing sea-ice albedo feedback, which is operative in the summer, and the stabilizing long wave radiative cooling of the ice surface, which is operative in the winter. This basic competition is found throughout the thesis to define the governing dynamics of the system. In particular, as greenhouse gas forcing increases, the sea-ice albedo feedback becomes more effective at destabilizing the system. Thus, any projections of the future state of Arctic sea-ice will depend sensitively on the treatment of the ice-albedo feedback. This in turn implies that the treatment a fractional ice cover as the ice areal extent changes rapidly, must be handled with the utmost care. In chapter 3, the idea of a two-season model, with just winter and summer, is revisited. By breaking the seasonal cycle up in this manner one can simplify the interpretation of the basic dynamics. Whereas in the fully

Snow and ice volume on Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska, 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

March, Rod S.; Mayo, Lawrence R.; Trabant, Dennis C.

1997-01-01

Mount Spurr (3,374 meters altitude) is an active volcano 130 kilometers west of Anchorage, Alaska, with an extensive covering of seasonal and perennial snow, and glaciers. Knowledge of the volume and distribution of snow and ice on a volcano aids in assessing hydrologic hazards such as floods, mudflows, and debris flows. In July 1981, ice thickness was measured at 68 locations on the five main glaciers of Mount Spurr: 64 of these measurements were made using a portable 1.7 megahertz monopulse ice-radar system, and 4 measurements were made using the helicopter altimeter where the glacier bed was exposed by ice avalanching. The distribution of snow and ice derived from these measurements is depicted on contour maps and in tables compiled by altitude and by drainage basins. Basal shear stresses at 20 percent of the measured locations ranged from 200 to 350 kilopascals, which is significantly higher than the 50 to 150 kilopascals commonly referred to in the literature as the 'normal' range for glaciers. Basal shear stresses higher than 'normal' have also been found on steep glaciers on volcanoes in the Cascade Range in the western United States. The area of perennial snow and ice coverage on Mount Spurr was 360 square kilometers in 1981, with an average thickness of 190?50 meters. Seasonal snow increases the volume about 1 percent and increases the area about 30 percent with a maximum in May or June. Runoff from Mount Spurr feeds the Chakachatna River and the Chichantna River (a tributary of the Beluga River). The Chakachatna River drainage contains 14 cubic kilometers of snow and ice and the Chichantna River drainage contains 53 cubic kilometers. The snow and ice volume on the mountain was 67?17 cubic kilometers, approximately 350 times more snow and ice than was on Mount St. Helens before its May 18, 1980, eruption, and 15 times more snow and ice than on Mount Rainier, the most glacierized of the measured volcanoes in the Cascade Range. On the basis of these relative

Detecting high spatial variability of ice shelf basal mass balance, Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Sophie; Drews, Reinhard; Helm, Veit; Sun, Sainan; Pattyn, Frank

2017-11-01

Ice shelves control the dynamic mass loss of ice sheets through buttressing and their integrity depends on the spatial variability of their basal mass balance (BMB), i.e. the difference between refreezing and melting. Here, we present an improved technique - based on satellite observations - to capture the small-scale variability in the BMB of ice shelves. As a case study, we apply the methodology to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, and derive its yearly averaged BMB at 10 m horizontal gridding. We use mass conservation in a Lagrangian framework based on high-resolution surface velocities, atmospheric-model surface mass balance and hydrostatic ice-thickness fields (derived from TanDEM-X surface elevation). Spatial derivatives are implemented using the total-variation differentiation, which preserves abrupt changes in flow velocities and their spatial gradients. Such changes may reflect a dynamic response to localized basal melting and should be included in the mass budget. Our BMB field exhibits much spatial detail and ranges from -14.7 to 8.6 m a-1 ice equivalent. Highest melt rates are found close to the grounding line where the pressure melting point is high, and the ice shelf slope is steep. The BMB field agrees well with on-site measurements from phase-sensitive radar, although independent radar profiling indicates unresolved spatial variations in firn density. We show that an elliptical surface depression (10 m deep and with an extent of 0.7 km × 1.3 km) lowers by 0.5 to 1.4 m a-1, which we tentatively attribute to a transient adaptation to hydrostatic equilibrium. We find evidence for elevated melting beneath ice shelf channels (with melting being concentrated on the channel's flanks). However, farther downstream from the grounding line, the majority of ice shelf channels advect passively (i.e. no melting nor refreezing) toward the ice shelf front. Although the absolute, satellite-based BMB values remain uncertain, we have

Variable volume combustor

DOEpatents

Ostebee, Heath Michael; Ziminsky, Willy Steve; Johnson, Thomas Edward; Keener, Christopher Paul

2017-01-17

The present application provides a variable volume combustor for use with a gas turbine engine. The variable volume combustor may include a liner, a number of micro-mixer fuel nozzles positioned within the liner, and a linear actuator so as to maneuver the micro-mixer fuel nozzles axially along the liner.

Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e<0.015), the effect of precession is minimal, and the integrated insolation metrics (such as summer metric, PDD, etc.) vary in-phase between the two hemispheres. At higher eccentricities (e>0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

Variability in Arctic sea ice topography and atmospheric form drag: Combining IceBridge laser altimetry with ASCAT radar backscatter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petty, A.; Tsamados, M.; Kurtz, N. T.

2016-12-01

Here we present atmospheric form drag estimates over Arctic sea ice using high resolution, three-dimensional surface elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), and surface roughness estimates from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). Surface features of the ice pack (e.g. pressure ridges) are detected using IceBridge ATM elevation data and a novel surface feature-picking algorithm. We use simple form drag parameterizations to convert the observed height and spacing of surface features into an effective atmospheric form drag coefficient. The results demonstrate strong regional variability in the atmospheric form drag coefficient, linked to variability in both the height and spacing of surface features. This includes form drag estimates around 2-3 times higher over the multiyear ice north of Greenland, compared to the first-year ice of the Beaufort/Chukchi seas. We compare results from both scanning and linear profiling to ensure our results are consistent with previous studies investigating form drag over Arctic sea ice. A strong correlation between ASCAT surface roughness estimates (using radar backscatter) and the IceBridge form drag results enable us to extrapolate the IceBridge data collected over the western-Arctic across the entire Arctic Ocean. While our focus is on spring, due to the timing of the primary IceBridge campaigns since 2009, we also take advantage of the autumn data collected by IceBridge in 2015 to investigate seasonality in Arctic ice topography and the resulting form drag coefficient. Our results offer the first large-scale assessment of atmospheric form drag over Arctic sea ice due to variable ice topography (i.e. within the Arctic pack ice). The analysis is being extended to the Antarctic IceBridge sea ice data, and the results are being used to calibrate a sophisticated form drag parameterization scheme included in the sea ice model CICE, to improve the representation of form drag over Arctic and

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice: A comparison between AO-FVCOM and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Gao, Guoping; Qi, Jianhua; Lin, Huichan

2016-11-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the sea ice in the Arctic over the period 1978-2014. The spatial-varying horizontal model resolution was designed to better resolve both topographic and baroclinic dynamics scales over the Arctic slope and narrow straits. The model-simulated sea ice was in good agreement with available observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, not only in seasonal and interannual variability but also in spatial distribution. Compared with six other Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME, and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher mean correlation coefficient of ˜0.63 and a smaller residual with observations. Model-produced ice drift speed and direction errors varied with wind speed: the speed and direction errors increased and decreased as the wind speed increased, respectively. Efforts were made to examine the influences of parameterizations of air-ice external and ice-water interfacial stresses on the model-produced bias. The ice drift direction was more sensitive to air-ice drag coefficients and turning angles than the ice drift speed. Increasing or decreasing either 10% in water-ice drag coefficient or 10° in water-ice turning angle did not show a significant influence on the ice drift velocity simulation results although the sea ice drift speed was more sensitive to these two parameters than the sea ice drift direction. Using the COARE 4.0-derived parameterization of air-water drag coefficient for wind stress did not significantly influence the ice drift velocity simulation.

Sea ice convergence along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: Variability and extremes (1992-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok, Ron

2015-09-01

After the summer of 2013, a convergence-induced tail in the thickness distribution of the ice cover is found along the Arctic coasts of Greenland and Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Prompted by this, a normalized ice convergence index (ICI) is introduced to examine the variability and extremes in convergence in a 23 year record (1992-2014) of monthly ice drift. Large-scale composites of circulation patterns, characteristic of regional convergence and divergence, are examined. Indeed, the ICI shows the June 2013 convergence event to be an extreme (i.e., ICI > 2). Furthermore, there is a cluster of 9 months over a 17 month period with positive ICIs (i.e., >1) following the record summer minimum ice extent (SMIE) in 2012; the imprint of ice dynamics from this cluster of positive ICIs likely contributed to higher SMIEs in 2013 and 2014. The impact of convergence on SMIE is discussed, and the increase in Arctic ice volume in 2013 is underscored.

Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

2010-12-01

Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the

Contribution of Deformation to Sea Ice Mass Balance: A Case Study From an N-ICE2015 Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itkin, Polona; Spreen, Gunnar; Hvidegaard, Sine Munk; Skourup, Henriette; Wilkinson, Jeremy; Gerland, Sebastian; Granskog, Mats A.

2018-01-01

The fastest and most efficient process of gaining sea ice volume is through the mechanical redistribution of mass as a consequence of deformation events. During the ice growth season divergent motion produces leads where new ice grows thermodynamically, while convergent motion fractures the ice and either piles the resultant ice blocks into ridges or rafts one floe under the other. Here we present an exceptionally detailed airborne data set from a 9 km2 area of first year and second year ice in the Transpolar Drift north of Svalbard that allowed us to estimate the redistribution of mass from an observed deformation event. To achieve this level of detail we analyzed changes in sea ice freeboard acquired from two airborne laser scanner surveys just before and right after a deformation event brought on by a passing low-pressure system. A linear regression model based on divergence during this storm can explain 64% of freeboard variability. Over the survey region we estimated that about 1.3% of level sea ice volume was pressed together into deformed ice and the new ice formed in leads in a week after the deformation event would increase the sea ice volume by 0.5%. As the region is impacted by about 15 storms each winter, a simple linear extrapolation would result in about 7% volume increase and 20% deformed ice fraction at the end of the season.

Strong and highly variable push of ocean waves on Southern Ocean sea ice.

PubMed

Stopa, Justin E; Sutherland, Peter; Ardhuin, Fabrice

2018-06-05

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean has expanded over most of the past 20 y, but the decline in sea ice since 2016 has taken experts by surprise. This recent evolution highlights the poor performance of numerical models for predicting extent and thickness, which is due to our poor understanding of ice dynamics. Ocean waves are known to play an important role in ice break-up and formation. In addition, as ocean waves decay, they cause a stress that pushes the ice in the direction of wave propagation. This wave stress could not previously be quantified due to insufficient observations at large scales. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radars (SARs) provide high-resolution imagery from which wave height is measured year round encompassing Antarctica since 2014. Our estimates give an average wave stress that is comparable to the average wind stress acting over 50 km of sea ice. We further reveal highly variable half-decay distances ranging from 400 m to 700 km, and wave stresses from 0.01 to 1 Pa. We expect that this variability is related to ice properties and possibly different floe sizes and ice thicknesses. A strong feedback of waves on sea ice, via break-up and rafting, may be the cause of highly variable sea-ice properties.

Impacts of the Variability of Ice Types on the Decline of the Arctic Perennial Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2005-01-01

The observed rapid decline in the Arctic perennial ice cover is one of the most remarkable signal of change in the Arctic region. Updated data now show an even higher rate of decline of 9.8% per decade than the previous report of 8.9% per decade mainly because of abnormally low values in the last 4 years. To gain insights into this decline, the variability of the second year ice, which is the relatively thin component of the perennial ice cover, and other ice types is studied. The perennial ice cover in the 1990s was observed to be highly variable which might have led to higher production of second year ice and may in part explain the observed ice thinning during the period and triggered further decline. The passive microwave signature of second year ice is also studied and results show that while the signature is different from that of the older multiyear ice, it is surprisingly more similar to that of first year ice. This in part explains why previous estimates of the area of multiyear ice during the winter period are considerably lower than the area of the perennial ice cover during the preceding summer. Four distinct clusters representing radiometrically different types have been identified using multi-channel cluster analysis of passive microwave data. Data from two of these clusters, postulated to come from second year and older multiyear ice regions are also shown to have average thicknesses of 2.4 and 4.1 m, respectively, indicating that the passive microwave data may contain some ice thickness information that can be utilized for mass balance studies. The yearly anomaly maps indicate high gains of first year ice cover in the Arctic during the last decade which means higher production of second year ice and fraction of this type in the declining perennial ice cover. While not the only cause, the rapid decline in the perennial ice cover is in part caused by the increasing fractional component of the thinner second year ice cover that is very vulnerable to

Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization.

PubMed

Salim, Michael A; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So

2016-05-28

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D2O ice greater than that of H2O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials is taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly, rapid softening of

Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salim, Michael A.; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So

2016-05-01

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D2O ice greater than that of H2O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials is taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly, rapid softening of

Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deser, C.; Walsh, J.E.; Timlin, M.S.

Sea ice is a sensitive component of the climate system, influenced by conditions in both the atmosphere and ocean. Variations in sea ice may in turn modulate climate by altering the surface albedo; the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum between the atmosphere and ocean; and the upper ocean stratification in areas of deep water formation. The surface albedo effect is considered to be one of the dominant factors in the poleward amplification of global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations simulated in many climate models. Forty years (1958--97) of reanalysis products and corresponding sea ice concentration data aremore » used to document Arctic sea ice variability and its association with surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The dominant mode of winter (January-March) sea ice variability exhibits out-of-phase fluctuations between the western and eastern North Atlantic, together with a weaker dipole in the North Pacific. The time series of this mode has a high winter-to-winter autocorrelation (0.69) and is dominated by decadal-scale variations and a longer-term trend of diminishing ice cover east of Greenland and increasing ice cover west of Greenland. Associated with the dominant pattern of winter sea ice variability are large-scale changes in SAT and SLP that closely resemble the North Atlantic oscillation. The associated SAT and surface sensible and latent heat flux anomalies are largest over the portions of the marginal sea ice zone in which the trends of ice coverage have been greatest, although the well-documented warming of the northern continental regions is also apparent. the temporal and spatial relationships between the SLP and ice anomaly fields are consistent with the notion that atmospheric circulation anomalies force the sea ice variations. However, there appears to be a local response of the atmospheric circulation to the changing sea ice variations. However

Future Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Area and its Implications for Marine Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Mioduszewski, J.; Holland, M. M.; Wang, M.; Landrum, L.

2016-12-01

As both a symbol and driver of ongoing climate change, the diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied in a variety of contexts. Most research, however, has focused on time-mean changes in sea ice, rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that interannual Arctic sea ice variability will increase in the future by utilizing a set of 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble for the 1920-2100 period. The model projects that ice variability will indeed grow substantially in all months but with a strong seasonal dependence in magnitude and timing. The variability increases most during late autumn (November-December) and least during spring. This increase proceeds in a time-transgressive manner over the course of the year, peaking soonest (2020s) in late-summer months and latest (2090s) during late spring. The variability in every month is inversely correlated with the average melt rate, resulting in an eventual decline in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal by late century. These projected changes in sea ice variations will likely have significant consequences for marine navigation, which we assess with the empirical Ice Numeral (IN) metric. A function of ice concentration and thickness, the IN quantifies the difficulty in traversing a transect of sea ice-covered ocean as a function of vessel strength. Our results show that although increasingly open Arctic seas will mean generally more favorable conditions for navigation, the concurrent rise in the variability of ice cover poses a competing risk. In particular, future intervals featuring the most rapid declines in ice area that coincide with the highest interannual ice variations will offer more inviting shipping opportunities tempered by less predictable navigational conditions.

Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Jes

2009-01-01

The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.

Greenland Ice Sheet flow response to runoff variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Laura A.; Behn, Mark D.; Das, Sarah B.; Joughin, Ian; Noël, Brice P. Y.; Broeke, Michiel R.; Herring, Thomas

2016-11-01

We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no statistically significant relationship between runoff season characteristics and ice flow velocities within a given year or season. Over the 7 year time series, annual velocities at North Lake decrease at an average rate of -0.9 ± 1.1 m yr-2, consistent with the negative trend in annual velocities observed in neighboring regions over recent decades. We find that net runoff integrated over several preceding years has a negative correlation with annual velocities, similar to findings from the two other available decadal records of ice velocity in western Greenland. However, we argue that this correlation is not necessarily evidence for a direct hydrologic mechanism acting on the timescale of multiple years but could be a statistical construct. Finally, we stress that neither the decadal slowdown trend nor the negative correlation between velocity and integrated runoff is predicted by current ice-sheet models, underscoring that these models do not yet capture all the relevant feedbacks between runoff and ice dynamics needed to predict long-term trends in ice sheet flow.

Mapping and assessing variability in the Antarctic marginal ice zone, pack ice and coastal polynyas in two sea ice algorithms with implications on breeding success of snow petrels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, Julienne C.; Jenouvrier, Stephanie; Campbell, G. Garrett; Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine

2016-08-01

Sea ice variability within the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and polynyas plays an important role for phytoplankton productivity and krill abundance. Therefore, mapping their spatial extent as well as seasonal and interannual variability is essential for understanding how current and future changes in these biologically active regions may impact the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Knowledge of the distribution of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas in the total Antarctic sea ice cover may also help to shed light on the factors contributing towards recent expansion of the Antarctic ice cover in some regions and contraction in others. The long-term passive microwave satellite data record provides the longest and most consistent record for assessing the proportion of the sea ice cover that is covered by each of these ice categories. However, estimates of the amount of MIZ, consolidated pack ice and polynyas depend strongly on which sea ice algorithm is used. This study uses two popular passive microwave sea ice algorithms, the NASA Team and Bootstrap, and applies the same thresholds to the sea ice concentrations to evaluate the distribution and variability in the MIZ, the consolidated pack ice and coastal polynyas. Results reveal that the seasonal cycle in the MIZ and pack ice is generally similar between both algorithms, yet the NASA Team algorithm has on average twice the MIZ and half the consolidated pack ice area as the Bootstrap algorithm. Trends also differ, with the Bootstrap algorithm suggesting statistically significant trends towards increased pack ice area and no statistically significant trends in the MIZ. The NASA Team algorithm on the other hand indicates statistically significant positive trends in the MIZ during spring. Potential coastal polynya area and amount of broken ice within the consolidated ice pack are also larger in the NASA Team algorithm. The timing of maximum polynya area may differ by as much as 5 months between algorithms. These

Ice Ih anomalies: Thermal contraction, anomalous volume isotope effect, and pressure-induced amorphization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salim, Michael A.; Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Hirata, So, E-mail: sohirata@illinois.edu

Ice Ih displays several anomalous thermodynamic properties such as thermal contraction at low temperatures, an anomalous volume isotope effect (VIE) rendering the volume of D{sub 2}O ice greater than that of H{sub 2}O ice, and a pressure-induced transition to the high-density amorphous (HDA) phase. Furthermore, the anomalous VIE increases with temperature, despite its quantum-mechanical origin. Here, embedded-fragment ab initio second-order many-body perturbation (MP2) theory in the quasiharmonic approximation (QHA) is applied to the Gibbs energy of an infinite, proton-disordered crystal of ice Ih at wide ranges of temperatures and pressures. The quantum effect of nuclei moving in anharmonic potentials ismore » taken into account from first principles without any empirical or nonsystematic approximation to either the electronic or vibrational Hamiltonian. MP2 predicts quantitatively correctly the thermal contraction at low temperatures, which is confirmed to originate from the volume-contracting hydrogen-bond bending modes (acoustic phonons). It qualitatively reproduces (but underestimates) the thermal expansion at higher temperatures, caused by the volume-expanding hydrogen-bond stretching (and to a lesser extent librational) modes. The anomalous VIE is found to be the result of subtle cancellations among closely competing isotope effects on volume from all modes. Consequently, even ab initio MP2 with the aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets has difficulty reproducing this anomaly, yielding qualitatively varied predictions of the sign of the VIE depending on such computational details as the choice of the embedding field. However, the temperature growth of the anomalous VIE is reproduced robustly and is ascribed to the librational modes. These solid-state MP2 calculations, as well as MP2 Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, find a volume collapse and a loss of symmetry and long-range order in ice Ih upon pressure loading of 2.35 GPa or higher. Concomitantly

Volume Ice Radiolysis in the Outer Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, John F.; Cooper, Paul D.

2006-01-01

The primary energy flux of charged particle components of the heliospheric and magnetospheric environments of the solar system is primarily carried by highly penetrating energetic particles. Although laboratory experiments on production of organics and oxidants typically only address effects on very thin surface layers, energy deposition occurs on surfaces of icy bodies of the outer solar system to meters in depth. Time scales for significant radiolytic deposition vary from thousands of years at millimeter depths on Europa to billions of years in the meters-deep regolith of Kuiper Belt Objects. Radioisotope decay (e.g., K-40) also contributes to volume radiolysis as the only energy source at much greater depths. Radiolytic oxygen is a potential resource for life within Europa and a partial source of oxygen for Saturn's magnetosphere and Titan's upper atmosphere. Interactions of very high energy cosmic rays with ices at Titan's surface may provide one of the few sources of oxidants in that highly reducing environment. The red colors of low-inclination classical Kuiper Belt Objects at 40-50 AU, and Centaur objects originating from this same population, may arise from volume radiolysis of deep ice layers below more refractory radiation crusts eroded away by surface sputtering and micrometeoroid impacts. A variety of techniques are potentially available to measure volume radiolysis products and have been proposed for study as part of the new Space Physics of Life initiative at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The technique of Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) has been used in medical studies to measure oxidant production in irradiated human tissue for cancer treatment. Other potential techniques include optical absorption spectroscopy and standard wet chemical analysis. These and other potential techniques are briefly reviewed for applicability to problems in solar system ice radiolysis and astrobiology.

Arctic ice shelves and ice islands: Origin, growth and disintegration, physical characteristics, structural-stratigraphic variability, and dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffries, M.O.

1992-08-01

Ice shelves are thick, floating ice masses most often associated with Antarctica where they are seaward extensions of the grounded Antarctic ice sheet and sources of many icebergs. However, there are also ice shelves in the Arctic, primarily located along the north coast of Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. The only ice shelves in North America and the most extensive in the north polar region, the Ellesmere ice shelves originate from glaciers and from sea ice and are the source of ice islands, the tabular icebergs of the Arctic Ocean. The present state of knowledge and understanding ofmore » these ice features is summarized in this paper. It includes historical background to the discovery and early study of ice shelves and ice islands, including the use of ice islands as floating laboratories for polar geophysical research. Growth mechanisms and age, the former extent and the twentieth century disintegration of the Ellesmere ice shelves, and the processes and mechanisms of ice island calving are summarized. Surface features, thickness, thermal regime, and the size, shape, and numbers of ice islands are discussed. The structural-stratigraphic variability of ice islands and ice shelves and the complex nature of their growth and development are described. Large-scale and small-scale dynamics of ice islands are described, and the results of modeling their drift and recurrence intervals are presented. The conclusion identifies some unanswered questions and future research opportunities and needs. 97 refs., 18 figs.« less

Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2015-04-01

Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the

Estimating the rates of mass change, ice volume change and snow volume change in Greenland from ICESat and GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slobbe, D. C.; Ditmar, P.; Lindenbergh, R. C.

2009-01-01

The focus of this paper is on the quantification of ongoing mass and volume changes over the Greenland ice sheet. For that purpose, we used elevation changes derived from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission and monthly variations of the Earth's gravity field as observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Based on a stand alone processing scheme of ICESat data, the most probable estimate of the mass change rate from 2003 February to 2007 April equals -139 +/- 68 Gtonyr-1. Here, we used a density of 600+/-300 kgm-3 to convert the estimated elevation change rate in the region above 2000m into a mass change rate. For the region below 2000m, we used a density of 900+/-300 kgm-3. Based on GRACE gravity models from half 2002 to half 2007 as processed by CNES, CSR, DEOS and GFZ, the estimated mass change rate for the whole of Greenland ranges between -128 and -218Gtonyr-1. Most GRACE solutions show much stronger mass losses as obtained with ICESat, which might be related to a local undersampling of the mass loss by ICESat and uncertainties in the used snow/ice densities. To solve the problem of uncertainties in the snow and ice densities, two independent joint inversion concepts are proposed to profit from both GRACE and ICESat observations simultaneously. The first concept, developed to reduce the uncertainty of the mass change rate, estimates this rate in combination with an effective snow/ice density. However, it turns out that the uncertainties are not reduced, which is probably caused by the unrealistic assumption that the effective density is constant in space and time. The second concept is designed to convert GRACE and ICESat data into two totally new products: variations of ice volume and variations of snow volume separately. Such an approach is expected to lead to new insights in ongoing mass change processes over the Greenland ice sheet. Our results show for different GRACE solutions a snow

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

PubMed Central

DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate–ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet–climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52–0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30–36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability. PMID:26903645

Forward Modeling of Oxygen Isotope Variability in Tropical Andean Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuille, M. F.; Hurley, J. V.; Hardy, D. R.

2016-12-01

Ice core records from the tropical Andes serve as important archives of past tropical Pacific SST variability and changes in monsoon intensity upstream over the Amazon basin. Yet the interpretation of the oxygen isotopic signal in these ice cores remains controversial. Based on 10 years of continuous on-site glaciologic, meteorologic and isotopic measurements at the summit of the world's largest tropical ice cap, Quelccaya, in southern Peru, we developed a process-based physical forward model (proxy system model), capable of simulating intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability in delta-18O as observed in snow pits and short cores. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account post-depositional effects (sublimation and isotopic enrichment) to properly simulate the seasonal cycle. Intraseasonal variability is underestimated in our model unless the effects of cold air incursions, triggering significant monsoonal snowfall and more negative delta-18O values, are included. A number of sensitivity test highlight the influence of changing boundary conditions on the final snow isotopic profile. Such tests also show that our model provides much more realistic data than applying direct model output of precipitation delta-18O from isotope-enabled climate models (SWING ensemble). The forward model was calibrated with and run under present-day conditions, but it can also be driven with past climate forcings to reconstruct paleo-monsoon variability and investigate the influence of changes in radiative forcings (solar, volcanic) on delta-18O variability in Andean snow. The model is transferable and may be used to render a paleoclimatic context at other ice core locations.

Aircraft Icing Handbook. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

an airfoil surface. icenhobig - A surface property exhibiting a reduced adhesion to ice; literally, "ice-hating." light icing - The rate of...power, and are a light weight system of reasonable cost. K. ill I-I1 1.I.2 Pneumatic Impulse Ice Protection A Pneumatic Impulse Ice Protection System...should be about 5 to 6 seconds. During moderate icing a 60 second cycle is suggested, while for light icing, longer accretion times of 3 to 4 minutes

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Betancourt, Ricardo Morales; Barahona, Donifan; Nenes, Athanasios

2016-01-01

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Understanding cirrus ice crystal number variability for different heterogeneous ice nucleation spectra

DOE PAGES

Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Morales Betancourt, Ricardo; Barahona, Donifan; ...

2016-03-03

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, N i, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of N i to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand N i variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, andmore » simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of N i sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. In conclusion, N i sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.« less

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Arctic sea ice variability during the last deglaciation: a biomarker approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, J.; Stein, R. H.

2014-12-01

The last transition from full glacial to current interglacial conditions was accompanied by distinct short-term climate fluctuations caused by changes in the global ocean circulation system. Most palaeoceanographic studies focus on the documentation of the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the last deglaciation in response to freshwater forcing events. In this respect, the role of Arctic sea ice remained relatively unconsidered - primarily because of the difficulty of its reconstruction. Here we present new proxy data on late glacial (including the Last Glacial Maximum; LGM) and deglacial sea ice variability in the Arctic Ocean and its main gateway - the Fram Strait - and how these changes in sea ice coverage contributed to AMOC perturbations observed during Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas. Recurrent short-term advances and retreats of sea ice in Fram Strait, prior and during the LGM, are in line with a variable (or intermittent) North Atlantic heat flow along the eastern corridor of the Nordic Seas. Possibly in direct response to the initial freshwater discharge from melting continental ice-sheets, a permanent sea ice cover established only at about 19 ka BP (i.e. post-LGM) and lasted until 17.6 ka BP, when an abrupt break-up of this thick ice cover and a sudden discharge of huge amounts of sea ice and icebergs through Fram Strait coincided with the weakening of the AMOC during Heinrich Event 1. Similarly, another sea ice maximum at about 12.8 ka BP is associated with the slowdown of the AMOC during the Younger Dryas. The new data sets clearly highlight the important role of Arctic sea ice for the re-organisation of the oceanographic setting in the North Atlantic during the last deglaciation. Further studies and sensitivity experiments to identify crucial driving (and feedback) mechanisms within the High Latitude ice-ocean-atmosphere system will contribute the understanding of rapid climate changes.

Improved parameterization of marine ice dynamics and flow instabilities for simulation of the Austfonna ice cap using a large-scale ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Greve, R.; Schuler, T.; Hagen, J. M.; Navarro, F.; Vasilenko, E.; Reijmer, C.

2009-12-01

The Austfonna ice cap covers an area of 8120 km2 and is by far the largest glacier on Svalbard. Almost 30% of the entire area is grounded below sea-level, while the figure is as large as 57% for the known surge-type basins in particular. Marine ice dynamics, as well as flow instabilities presumably control flow regime, form and evolution of Austfonna. These issues are our focus in numerical simulations of the ice cap. We employ the thermodynamic, large-scale ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (http://sicopolis.greveweb.net/) which is based on the shallow-ice approximation. We present improved parameterizations of (a) the marine extent and calving and (b) processes that may initiate flow instabilities such as switches from cold to temperate basal conditions, surface steepening and hence, increases in driving stress, enhanced sliding or deformation of unconsolidated marine sediments and diminishing ice thicknesses towards flotation thickness. Space-borne interferometric snapshots of Austfonna revealed a velocity structure of a slow moving polar ice cap (< 10m/a) interrupted by distinct fast flow units with velocities in excess of 100m/a. However, observations of flow variability are scarce. In spring 2008, we established a series of stakes along the centrelines of two fast-flowing units. Repeated DGPS and continuous GPS measurements of the stake positions give insight in the temporal flow variability of these units and provide constrains to the modeled surface velocity field. Austfonna’s thermal structure is described as polythermal. However, direct measurements of the temperature distribution is available only from one single borehole at the summit area. The vertical temperature profile shows that the bulk of the 567m thick ice column is cold, only underlain by a thin temperate basal layer of approximately 20m. To acquire a spatially extended picture of the thermal structure (and bed topography), we used low-frequency (20 MHz) GPR profiling across the ice cap and the

Spatiotemporal Variability of Meltwater Refreezing in Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet Firn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rennermalm, A. K.; Hock, R.; Tedesco, M.; Corti, G.; Covi, F.; Miège, C.; Kingslake, J.; Leidman, S. Z.; Munsell, S.

2017-12-01

A substantial fraction of the summer meltwater formed on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet is retained in firn, while the remaining portion runs to the ocean through surface and subsurface channels. Refreezing of meltwater in firn can create impenetrable ice lenses, hence being a crucial process in the redistribution of surface runoff. To quantify the impact of refreezing on runoff and current and future Greenland surface mass balance, a three year National Science Foundation funded project titled "Refreezing in the firn of the Greenland ice sheet: Spatiotemporal variability and implications for ice sheet mass balance" started this past year. Here we present an overview of the project and some initial results from the first field season in May 2017 conducted in proximity of the DYE-2 site in the percolation zone of the Southwest Greenland ice sheet at elevations between 1963 and 2355 m a.s.l.. During this fieldwork two automatic weather stations were deployed, outfitted with surface energy balance sensors and 16 m long thermistor strings, over 300 km of ground penetrating radar data were collected, and five 20-26 m deep firn cores were extracted and analyzed for density and stratigraphy. Winter snow accumulation was measured along the radar tracks. Preliminary work on the firn-core data reveals increasing frequency and thickness of ice lenses at lower ice-sheet elevations, in agreement with other recent work in the area. Data collected within this project will facilitate advances in our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of firn refreezing and its role in the hydrology and surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, N. T.; Markus, T.; Farrell, S. L.; Worthen, D. L.; Boisvert, L. N.

2011-01-01

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

A combined surface/volume scattering retracking algorithm for ice sheet satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Curt H.

1992-01-01

An algorithm that is based upon a combined surface-volume scattering model is developed. It can be used to retrack individual altimeter waveforms over ice sheets. An iterative least-squares procedure is used to fit the combined model to the return waveforms. The retracking algorithm comprises two distinct sections. The first generates initial model parameter estimates from a filtered altimeter waveform. The second uses the initial estimates, the theoretical model, and the waveform data to generate corrected parameter estimates. This retracking algorithm can be used to assess the accuracy of elevations produced from current retracking algorithms when subsurface volume scattering is present. This is extremely important so that repeated altimeter elevation measurements can be used to accurately detect changes in the mass balance of the ice sheets. By analyzing the distribution of the model parameters over large portions of the ice sheet, regional and seasonal variations in the near-surface properties of the snowpack can be quantified.

Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

RICE ice core: Black Carbon reflects climate variability at Roosevelt Island, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, Aja; Edwards, Ross; Bertler, Nancy; Winton, Holly; Goodwin, Ian; Neff, Peter; Tuohy, Andrea; Proemse, Bernadette; Hogan, Chad; Feiteng, Wang

2015-04-01

The Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) project successfully drilled a deep ice core from Roosevelt Island during the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 seasons. Located in the Ross Ice Shelf in West Antarctica, the site is an ideal location for investigating climate variability and the past stability of the Ross Ice Shelf. Black carbon (BC) aerosols are emitted by both biomass burning and fossil fuels, and BC particles emitted in the southern hemisphere are transported in the atmosphere and preserved in Antarctic ice. The past record of BC is expected to be sensitive to climate variability, as it is modulated by both emissions and transport. To investigate BC variability over the past 200 years, we developed a BC record from two overlapping ice cores (~1850-2012) and a high-resolution snow pit spanning 2010-2012 (cal. yr). Consistent results are found between the snow pit profiles and ice core records. Distinct decadal trends are found with respect to BC particle size, and the record indicates a steady rise in BC particle size over the last 100 years. Differences in emission sources and conditions may be a possible explanation for changes in BC size. These records also show a significant increase in BC concentration over the past decade with concentrations rising over 1.5 ppb (1.5*10^-9 ng/g), suggesting a fundamental shift in BC deposition to the site.

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-01-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

PubMed

Dutrieux, Pierre; De Rydt, Jan; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Steig, Eric J; Ding, Qinghua; Abrahamsen, E Povl; Schröder, Michael

2014-01-10

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

Reconciliation of Antarctic marine and terrestrial geologic records: climate and ice-sheet variability in the mid-Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, A. R. W.; DeConto, R.; Gasson, E.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Levy, R. H.; Naish, T.; Chorley, H.

2017-12-01

summer orbit, and an ice sheet 53% of its modern volume). Model results will be compared with emerging terrestrial data from the Friis Hills in the MDVs, to test the hypothesis that climate in the MDVs remained relatively cold and insensitive to a highly variable West Antarctic Ice Sheet and marine conditions in the proximal Ross Sea.

Interannual variability of high ice cloud properties over the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, S.; Iwabuchi, H.

2015-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects atmospheric conditions and cloud physical properties such as cloud fraction (CF) and cloud top height (CTH). However, an impact of the ENSO on physical properties in high-ice cloud is not well known. Therefore, this study attempts to reveal relationship between variability of ice cloud physical properties and ENSO. Ice clouds are inferred with the multiband IR method in this study. Ice clouds are categorized in terms of cloud optical thickness (COT) as thin (0.1< COT <0.3), opaque (0.3< COT <3.6), thick (3.6< COT <11), and deep convective (DC) (11< COT) clouds, and relationship between ENSO and interannual variability of cloud physical properties is investigated for each category during the period from January 2003 to December 2014. The deseasonalized anomalies of CF and CTH in all categories correlate well with Niño3.4 index, with positive anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative anomaly over the western Pacific during El Niño condition. However, the global distribution of these correlation coefficients is different by cloud categories. For example, CF of DC correlates well with Niño3.4 index over the convergence zone, while, that of thin cloud shows high correlation extending to high latitude from convergence zone, suggesting a connection with cloud formation. The global distributions of average rate of change differ by cloud category, because the different associate with ENSO and gradual trend toward La Niña condition had occurred over the analysis period. In this conference, detailed results and relationship between variability of cloud physical properties and atmospheric conditions will be shown.

Change and variability in East antarctic sea ice seasonality, 1979/80-2009/10.

PubMed

Massom, Robert; Reid, Philip; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Raymond, Ben; Fraser, Alexander; Ushio, Shuki

2013-01-01

Recent analyses have shown that significant changes have occurred in patterns of sea ice seasonality in West Antarctica since 1979, with wide-ranging climatic, biological and biogeochemical consequences. Here, we provide the first detailed report on long-term change and variability in annual timings of sea ice advance, retreat and resultant ice season duration in East Antarctica. These were calculated from satellite-derived ice concentration data for the period 1979/80 to 2009/10. The pattern of change in sea ice seasonality off East Antarctica comprises mixed signals on regional to local scales, with pockets of strongly positive and negative trends occurring in near juxtaposition in certain regions e.g., Prydz Bay. This pattern strongly reflects change and variability in different elements of the marine "icescape", including fast ice, polynyas and the marginal ice zone. A trend towards shorter sea-ice duration (of 1 to 3 days per annum) occurs in fairly isolated pockets in the outer pack from∼95-110°E, and in various near-coastal areas that include an area of particularly strong and persistent change near Australia's Davis Station and between the Amery and West Ice Shelves. These areas are largely associated with coastal polynyas that are important as sites of enhanced sea ice production/melt. Areas of positive trend in ice season duration are more extensive, and include an extensive zone from 160-170°E (i.e., the western Ross Sea sector) and the near-coastal zone between 40-100°E. The East Antarctic pattern is considerably more complex than the well-documented trends in West Antarctica e.g., in the Antarctic Peninsula-Bellingshausen Sea and western Ross Sea sectors.

Small scale variability of snow properties on Antarctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wever, Nander; Leonard, Katherine; Paul, Stephan; Jacobi, Hans-Werner; Proksch, Martin; Lehning, Michael

2016-04-01

Snow on sea ice plays an important role in air-ice-sea interactions, as snow accumulation may for example increase the albedo. Snow is also able to smooth the ice surface, thereby reducing the surface roughness, while at the same time it may generate new roughness elements by interactions with the wind. Snow density is a key property in many processes, for example by influencing the thermal conductivity of the snow layer, radiative transfer inside the snow as well as the effects of aerodynamic forcing on the snowpack. By comparing snow density and grain size from snow pits and snow micro penetrometer (SMP) measurements, highly resolved density and grain size profiles were acquired during two subsequent cruises of the RV Polarstern in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, between June and October 2013. During the first cruise, SMP measurements were done along two approximately 40 m transects with a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 cm. During the second cruise, one transect was made with approximately 7.5 m resolution over a distance of 500 m. Average snow densities are about 300 kg/m3, but the analysis also reveals a high spatial variability in snow density on sea ice in both horizontal and vertical direction, ranging from roughly 180 to 360 kg/m3. This variability is expressed by coherent snow structures over several meters. On the first cruise, the measurements were accompanied by terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) on an area of 50x50 m2. The comparison with the TLS data indicates that the spatial variability is exhibiting similar spatial patterns as deviations in surface topology. This suggests a strong influence from surface processes, for example wind, on the temporal development of density or grain size profiles. The fundamental relationship between variations in snow properties, surface roughness and changes therein as investigated in this study is interpreted with respect to large-scale ice movement and the mass balance.

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator

PubMed Central

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D.; Massom, Rob A.; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A.; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-01-01

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies. PMID:28233791

Variability in sea ice cover and climate elicit sex specific responses in an Antarctic predator.

PubMed

Labrousse, Sara; Sallée, Jean-Baptiste; Fraser, Alexander D; Massom, Rob A; Reid, Phillip; Hobbs, William; Guinet, Christophe; Harcourt, Robert; McMahon, Clive; Authier, Matthieu; Bailleul, Frédéric; Hindell, Mark A; Charrassin, Jean-Benoit

2017-02-24

Contrasting regional changes in Southern Ocean sea ice have occurred over the last 30 years with distinct regional effects on ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying how Antarctic predators respond to such changes provides the context for predicting how climate variability/change will affect these assemblages into the future. Over an 11-year time-series, we examine how inter-annual variability in sea ice concentration and advance affect the foraging behaviour of a top Antarctic predator, the southern elephant seal. Females foraged longer in pack ice in years with greatest sea ice concentration and earliest sea ice advance, while males foraged longer in polynyas in years of lowest sea ice concentration. There was a positive relationship between near-surface meridional wind anomalies and female foraging effort, but not for males. This study reveals the complexities of foraging responses to climate forcing by a poleward migratory predator through varying sea ice property and dynamic anomalies.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Molecular Markers in the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Describe 20th Century Biomass Burning Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makou, M. C.; Thompson, L. G.; Eglinton, T. I.; Montluçon, D. B.

2007-12-01

Organic geochemical analytical methods were applied to Andean ice core samples, resulting in a multi- molecular biomass burning record spanning 1915 to 2001 AD. The Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru is situated on the eastern flank of the Andes at 14°S and is well situated to receive aeolian inputs of organic matter derived from Amazonian forest fire events. Compounds of interest, which occur in trace quantities in ice, were recovered by stir bar sorptive extraction and analyzed by gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry coupled with thermal desorption. These methods permitted identification and quantitation of numerous biomarkers in sample volumes of as little as 10 ml. At least one wet and dry season sample was analyzed for every year. Observed biomarkers that may be derived from vegetation fires include several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), atraric acid, 2-ethylhexyl p-methoxycinnamate, and a range of other aromatic compounds. Abrupt changes in compound abundances were superimposed on decadal variability. Systematic offsets between wet and dry season abundances were not observed, suggesting that the biomass burning signal is not biased by seasonal depositional effects, such as dust delivery. Inputs likely reflect a combination of sources from anthropogenic burning of the Amazon rainforest as well as natural fires related to aridity, and include both high and low elevation vegetation. These compounds and techniques can be applied to older ice in this and other core locations as an independent estimate of aridity.

Aircraft Icing Handbook. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-01

Measurement," Harvard-Mt. Washington Icing Research Report, 1976-1947,L U. S. Air Materiel Command, Tech. Rept. No. 5676, 82. Findeisen , W...34Meteorological-Physical Limitations of Icing on the Atmosphere," NACA TM 885, 1939. 83. Findeisen , W., "Meteorological Commentary on D (air) 1209, Icing...November 1972, pp. 2603-2616. 58. Findeisen , W., "The Thermometric Ice Warning Indicator," (Translation) Project No. M992-B, University of Michigan

Neogene ice volume and ocean temperatures: Insights from infaunal foraminiferal Mg/Ca paleothermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lear, Caroline H.; Coxall, Helen K.; Foster, Gavin L.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mawbey, Elaine M.; Rosenthal, Yair; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Thomas, Ellen; Wilson, Paul A.

2015-11-01

Antarctic continental-scale glaciation is generally assumed to have initiated at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition, yet its subsequent evolution is poorly constrained. We reconstruct changes in bottom water temperature and global ice volume from 0 to 17 Ma using δ18O in conjunction with Mg/Ca records of the infaunal benthic foraminifer, O. umbonatus from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 806 (equatorial Pacific; ~2500 m). Considering uncertainties in core top calibrations and sensitivity to seawater Mg/Ca (Mg/Ca)sw, we produce a range of Mg/Ca-temperature-Mg/Casw calibrations. Our favored exponential temperature calibration is Mg/Ca = 0.66 ± 0.08 × Mg/Casw0.27±0.06 × e(0.114±0.02 × BWT) and our favored linear temperature calibration is Mg/Ca = (1.21 ± 0.04 + 0.12 ± 0.004 × BWT (bottom water temperature)) × (Mg/Casw-0.003±0.02) (stated errors are 2 s.e.). The equations are obtained by comparing O. umbonatus Mg/Ca for a Paleocene-Eocene section from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 690 (Weddell Sea) to δ18O temperatures, calculated assuming ice-free conditions during this peak warmth period of the Cenozoic. This procedure suggests negligible effect of Mg/Casw on the Mg distribution coefficient (DMg). Application of the new equations to the Site 806 record leads to the suggestion that global ice volume was greater than today after the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (~14 Ma). ODP Site 806 bottom waters cooled and freshened as the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient increased, and climate cooled through the Pliocene, prior to the Plio-Pleistocene glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere. The records indicate a decoupling of deep water temperatures and global ice volume, demonstrating the importance of thresholds in the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Plume Activity and Tidal Deformation on Enceladus Influenced by Faults and Variable Ice Shell Thickness

PubMed Central

Souček, Ondřej; Hron, Jaroslav; Čadek, Ondřej

2017-01-01

Abstract We investigated the effect of variations in ice shell thickness and of the tiger stripe fractures crossing Enceladus' south polar terrain on the moon's tidal deformation by performing finite element calculations in three-dimensional geometry. The combination of thinning in the polar region and the presence of faults has a synergistic effect that leads to an increase of both the displacement and stress in the south polar terrain by an order of magnitude compared to that of the traditional model with a uniform shell thickness and without faults. Assuming a simplified conductive heat transfer and neglecting the heat sources below the ice shell, we computed the global heat budget of the ice shell. For the inelastic properties of the shell described by a Maxwell viscoelastic model, we show that unrealistically low average viscosity of the order of 1013 Pa s is necessary for preserving the volume of the ocean, suggesting the important role of the heat sources in the deep interior. Similarly, low viscosity is required to predict the observed delay of the plume activity, which hints at other delaying mechanisms than just the viscoelasticity of the ice shell. The presence of faults results in large spatial and temporal heterogeneity of geysering activity compared to the traditional models without faults. Our model contributes to understanding the physical mechanisms that control the fault activity, and it provides potentially useful information for future missions that will sample the plume for evidence of life. Key Words: Enceladus—Tidal deformation—Faults—Variable ice shell thickness—Tidal heating—Plume activity and timing. Astrobiology 17, 941–954. PMID:28816521

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

PubMed Central

Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.

2015-01-01

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2015-07-13

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Surface Energy Fluxes During Autumn Ice Advance: Observations and Model Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, O. P. G.; Blomquist, B.; Grachev, A. A.; Guest, P. S.; Stammerjohn, S. E.; Solomon, A.; Cox, C. J.; Capotondi, A.; Fairall, C. W.; Intrieri, J. M.

2016-12-01

From Oct 4 to Nov 5, 2015, the Office of Naval Research - sponsored Sea State cruise in the Beaufort Sea with the new National Science Foundation R/V Sikuliaq obtained extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations of the lower troposphere, the advancing sea ice, wave state, and upper ocean conditions. In addition, a coupled atmosphere, sea ice, upper-ocean model, based on the RASM model, was run at NOAA/PSD in a hindcast mode for this same time period, providing a 10-day simulation of the atmosphere/ice/ocean evolution. Surface energy fluxes quantitatively represent the air-ice, air-ocean, and ice-ocean interaction processes, determining the cooling (warming) rate of the upper ocean and the growth (melting) rate of sea ice. These fluxes also impact the stratification of the lower troposphere and the upper ocean. In this presentation, both direct and indirect measurements of the energy fluxes during Sea State will be used to explore the spatial and temporal variability of these fluxes and the impacts of this variability on the upper ocean, ice, and lower atmosphere during the autumn ice advance. Analyses have suggested that these fluxes are impacted by atmospheric synoptic evolution, proximity to existing ice, ice-relative wind direction, ice thickness and snow depth. In turn, these fluxes impact upper-ocean heat loss and timing of ice formation, as well as stability in the lower troposphere and upper ocean, and hence heat transport to the free troposphere and ocean mixed-layer. Therefore, the atmospheric structure over the advancing first-year ice differs from that over the nearby open water. Finally, these observational analyses will be used to provide a preliminary validation of the spatial and temporal variability of the surface energy fluxes and the associated lower-tropospheric and upper-ocean structures in the simulations.

Interannual Variability of Water Ice Clouds at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, G.; Giuranna, M.; McConnochie, T. H.; Tamppari, L.; Smith, M. D.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Renno, N. O.; Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Guzewich, S.

2017-12-01

The Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) is a water ice cloud band that encircles the planet longitudinally at latitudes ranging from about 10°S to 30°N during the northern spring and summer (aphelion season). The ACB has been studied extensively using satellite observations over the last two decades [1], showing little interannual variability from MY 24 to 34. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission has completed more than 1750 sols of measurements at Gale crater (4.5°S), from Ls 155° in MY 31 to Ls 33° in MY 34. Interestingly, MSL results from various instruments indicate that the ACB produces significant interannual variability at Gale crater during the aphelion season. In particular, near-noon retrievals of water ice opacity by the ChemCam instrument indicate an increase in water ice opacity up to 50% from MY 32 to 33 [2], further supported by analysis of UV [3] and ground temperature [4] data taken by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station during MY 32 and 33. A weaker ( 5%) increase in water ice opacity in MY 33 relative to MY 32 was also observed from images taken during afternoon hours by the rover's Navigation Cameras [5]. We are analyzing simultaneous and noncontemporary satellite observations at the location of Gale made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer [6], Mars Climate Sounder, Thermal Emission Imaging System and Thermal Emission Spectrometer to shed light on the nature of the interannual variability of the ACB at Gale, and to locally understand the relation between the ACB and the water cycle. References:[1] Smith, M.D. (2008), Spacecraft observations of the martian atmosphere, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36. [2] McConnochie, T. H., et al. (2017), Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy, Icarus (submitted). [3] Vicente-Retortillo, Á., et al. (2017), Determination of dust aerosol particle size at Gale Crater using REMS UVS and Mastcam measurements, GRL, 44. [4] Vasavada, A.R. et al

An Ice Core Perspective on Aleutian Low Variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S.; Introne, D.

2016-12-01

The Aleutian Low (ALow) is the dominant feature of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific, strongly influencing wintertime temperature, precipitation and wind patterns in Alaska and the Yukon Territory, as well as further downstream in North America via atmospheric teleconnections. Changes in ALow strength are known to impact marine ecosystems by contributing to the multi-decadal sea-surface temperature mode in the North Pacific known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Meteorological records show that in addition to distinct PDO-like variability, the ALow has intensified over the 20th century. However, ALow variability prior to the instrumental period remains unclear due to generally poor correlations among published ALow and PDO reconstructions, including the Mt. Logan ice core ALow record. An improved understanding of past ALow variability is critical for evaluating natural ALow forcing mechanisms, placing the 20th century intensification in context, and improving ALow projections under increased anthropogenic forcing. Here we combine ALow-sensitive time series from the new Denali ice core and the Mt. Logan ice core to develop a high-resolution (1-3 year) multi-ice-core record of ALow variability over the past 1500 years. The Denali ice core was collected from the summit plateau (3900 m) of Mt. Hunter in 2013, and was sampled using the Dartmouth continuous melter system with discrete sampling for major ion (IC), trace element (ICP-MS), and stable isotope ratios (Picarro), as well as continuous flow analyses for dust size and concentration (Klotz Abakus). We focus here on the sea-salt sodium time series, and calibrate our record over the 20th century with reanalysis wind speed and pressure data. The Denali sodium record of ALow strength strongly resembles the Mt. Logan ALow record, with both showing a recent intensification of the ALow that started in the late 1600s and continues into the 20th century. Both records reveal that the ALow was stronger

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-06-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea ice varying in age from 1 to 116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a~high-resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

A combined approach of remote sensing and airborne electromagnetics to determine the volume of polynya sea ice in the Laptev Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabenstein, L.; Krumpen, T.; Hendricks, S.; Koeberle, C.; Haas, C.; Hoelemann, J. A.

2013-02-01

A combined interpretation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) sea-ice thickness data has provided an estimate of sea-ice volume formed in Laptev Sea polynyas during the winter of 2007/08. The evolution of the surveyed sea-ice areas, which were formed between late December 2007 and middle April 2008, was tracked using a series of SAR images with a sampling interval of 2-3 days. Approximately 160 km of HEM data recorded in April 2008 provided sea-ice thicknesses along profiles that transected sea-ice varying in age from 1-116 days. For the volume estimates, thickness information along the HEM profiles was extrapolated to zones of the same age. The error of areal mean thickness information was estimated to be between 0.2 m for younger ice and up to 1.55 m for older ice, with the primary error source being the spatially limited HEM coverage. Our results have demonstrated that the modal thicknesses and mean thicknesses of level ice correlated with the sea-ice age, but that varying dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice growth conditions resulted in a rather heterogeneous sea-ice thickness distribution on scales of tens of kilometers. Taking all uncertainties into account, total sea-ice area and volume produced within the entire surveyed area were 52 650 km2 and 93.6 ± 26.6 km3. The surveyed polynya contributed 2.0 ± 0.5% of the sea-ice produced throughout the Arctic during the 2007/08 winter. The SAR-HEM volume estimate compares well with the 112 km3 ice production calculated with a high resolution ocean sea-ice model. Measured modal and mean-level ice thicknesses correlate with calculated freezing-degree-day thicknesses with a factor of 0.87-0.89, which was too low to justify the assumption of homogeneous thermodynamic growth conditions in the area, or indicates a strong dynamic thickening of level ice by rafting of even thicker ice.

Snow and Ice Control Materials for Texas Roads; VOLUME 1: Literature and Best Practices Review; VOLUME 2: Field Trials and Laboratory Study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

This report provides findings from a four-year research study of snow and ice control materials for winter weather roadway maintenance applications in Texas. The report is presented in two volumes. Volume 1 is a literature review and best practices r...

Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

2017-08-01

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.