Occupational risk identification using hand-held or laptop computers.

PubMed

Naumanen, Paula; Savolainen, Heikki; Liesivuori, Jyrki

2008-01-01

This paper describes the Work Environment Profile (WEP) program and its use in risk identification by computer. It is installed into a hand-held computer or a laptop to be used in risk identification during work site visits. A 5-category system is used to describe the identified risks in 7 groups, i.e., accidents, biological and physical hazards, ergonomic and psychosocial load, chemicals, and information technology hazards. Each group contains several qualifying factors. These 5 categories are colour-coded at this stage to aid with visualization. Risk identification produces visual summary images the interpretation of which is facilitated by colours. The WEP program is a tool for risk assessment which is easy to learn and to use both by experts and nonprofessionals. It is especially well adapted to be used both in small and in larger enterprises. Considerable time is saved as no paper notes are needed.

Advances in risk assessment and communication.

PubMed

Goldstein, Bernard D

2005-01-01

Risk analysis continues to evolve. There is increasing depth and breadth to each component of the four-step risk-assessment paradigm of hazard identification, dose-response analysis, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Basic conceptual approaches to understanding how people perceive risk are being tested against a growing body of empirical observations, many involving stakeholders. Emerging ideas such as the precautionary principle have provided challenges that have led to a rethinking of the role of risk assessment in environmental health. Newer problems, such as intergenerational issues posed by long-lasting radiation pollution, environmental justice, and the assessment and communication of risks related to terrorism, have spurred innovative approaches to risk analysis.

Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

2014-05-01

By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

A unified framework for evaluating the risk of re-identification of text de-identification tools.

PubMed

Scaiano, Martin; Middleton, Grant; Arbuckle, Luk; Kolhatkar, Varada; Peyton, Liam; Dowling, Moira; Gipson, Debbie S; El Emam, Khaled

2016-10-01

It has become regular practice to de-identify unstructured medical text for use in research using automatic methods, the goal of which is to remove patient identifying information to minimize re-identification risk. The metrics commonly used to determine if these systems are performing well do not accurately reflect the risk of a patient being re-identified. We therefore developed a framework for measuring the risk of re-identification associated with textual data releases. We apply the proposed evaluation framework to a data set from the University of Michigan Medical School. Our risk assessment results are then compared with those that would be obtained using a typical contemporary micro-average evaluation of recall in order to illustrate the difference between the proposed evaluation framework and the current baseline method. We demonstrate how this framework compares against common measures of the re-identification risk associated with an automated text de-identification process. For the probability of re-identification using our evaluation framework we obtained a mean value for direct identifiers of 0.0074 and a mean value for quasi-identifiers of 0.0022. The 95% confidence interval for these estimates were below the relevant thresholds. The threshold for direct identifier risk was based on previously used approaches in the literature. The threshold for quasi-identifiers was determined based on the context of the data release following commonly used de-identification criteria for structured data. Our framework attempts to correct for poorly distributed evaluation corpora, accounts for the data release context, and avoids the often optimistic assumptions that are made using the more traditional evaluation approach. It therefore provides a more realistic estimate of the true probability of re-identification. This framework should be used as a basis for computing re-identification risk in order to more realistically evaluate future text de-identification tools

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

PubMed

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Risk and Risk Assessment in Environmental Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiras, Daniel D.

1982-01-01

Risk assessment (the identification of hazards, the determination of the probability of a hazardous event occurring, and an estimation of the severity of such an event's occurrence) is suggested as a technique to be used to analyze current issues in environmental education in an objective manner. (PEB)

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

2014-04-01

Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20 year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than those of mild to moderate drought throughout the warm season. Finally, the areas with diachronic

Risk identification of agricultural drought for sustainable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.; Tarquis, A. M.

2014-09-01

Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with a significant impact on agriculture, environment, society and economy. Droughts affect sustainability of agriculture and may result in environmental degradation of a region, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture. This paper addresses agrometeorological or agricultural drought within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with risk identification of agricultural drought, which involves drought quantification and monitoring, as well as statistical inference. For the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the vegetation health index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI, are areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/advanced very high resolution radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural drought-prone region of Greece, characterized by vulnerable agriculture. The results show that agricultural drought appears every year during the warm season in the region. The severity of drought is increasing from mild to extreme throughout the warm season, with peaks appearing in the summer. Similarly, the areal extent of drought is also increasing during the warm season, whereas the number of extreme drought pixels is much less than

Automatic limb identification and sleeping parameters assessment for pressure ulcer prevention.

PubMed

Baran Pouyan, Maziyar; Birjandtalab, Javad; Nourani, Mehrdad; Matthew Pompeo, M D

2016-08-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are common among vulnerable patients such as elderly, bedridden and diabetic. PUs are very painful for patients and costly for hospitals and nursing homes. Assessment of sleeping parameters on at-risk limbs is critical for ulcer prevention. An effective assessment depends on automatic identification and tracking of at-risk limbs. An accurate limb identification can be used to analyze the pressure distribution and assess risk for each limb. In this paper, we propose a graph-based clustering approach to extract the body limbs from the pressure data collected by a commercial pressure map system. A robust signature-based technique is employed to automatically label each limb. Finally, an assessment technique is applied to evaluate the experienced stress by each limb over time. The experimental results indicate high performance and more than 94% average accuracy of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and Classification of Common Risks in Space Science Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus M.; Chattopadhyay, Debarati; Hanna, Robert A.; Port, Daniel; Eggleston, Sabrina

2010-01-01

Due to the highly constrained schedules and budgets that NASA missions must contend with, the identification and management of cost, schedule and risks in the earliest stages of the lifecycle is critical. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) it is the concurrent engineering teams that first address these items in a systematic manner. Foremost of these concurrent engineering teams is Team X. Started in 1995, Team X has carried out over 1000 studies, dramatically reducing the time and cost involved, and has been the model for other concurrent engineering teams both within NASA and throughout the larger aerospace community. The ability to do integrated risk identification and assessment was first introduced into Team X in 2001. Since that time the mission risks identified in each study have been kept in a database. In this paper we will describe how the Team X risk process is evolving highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. The paper will especially focus on the identification and classification of common risks that have arisen during Team X studies of space based science missions.

Evaluating the risk of patient re-identification from adverse drug event reports

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Our objective was to develop a model for measuring re-identification risk that more closely mimics the behaviour of an adversary by accounting for repeated attempts at matching and verification of matches, and apply it to evaluate the risk of re-identification for Canada’s post-marketing adverse drug event database (ADE).Re-identification is only demonstrably plausible for deaths in ADE. A matching experiment between ADE records and virtual obituaries constructed from Statistics Canada vital statistics was simulated. A new re-identification risk is considered, it assumes that after gathering all the potential matches for a patient record (all records in the obituaries that are potential matches for an ADE record), an adversary tries to verify these potential matches. Two adversary scenarios were considered: (a) a mildly motivated adversary who will stop after one verification attempt, and (b) a highly motivated adversary who will attempt to verify all the potential matches and is only limited by practical or financial considerations. Methods The mean percentage of records in ADE that had a high probability of being re-identified was computed. Results Under scenario (a), the risk of re-identification from disclosing the province, age at death, gender, and exact date of the report is quite high, but the removal of province brings down the risk significantly. By only generalizing the date of reporting to month and year and including all other variables, the risk is always low. All ADE records have a high risk of re-identification under scenario (b), but the plausibility of that scenario is limited because of the financial and practical deterrent even for highly motivated adversaries. Conclusions It is possible to disclose Canada’s adverse drug event database while ensuring that plausible re-identification risks are acceptably low. Our new re-identification risk model is suitable for such risk assessments. PMID:24094134

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Robert J.; Papadopoulos, Periklis E.

2005-01-01

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century

EPA Science Inventory

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional app...

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

WORKGROUP IV SYNOPSIS: REGULATORY ISSUES AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The discussions in this workgroup started with an identification and brief explanation of U.S. regulations pertaining to wetlands. The Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment Forum was then reviewed in relation to the unique aspects of conducting a wetland assessment. Assessment...

Carbon/graphite fiber risk analysis and assessment study: Assessment of risk to the Lockheed Model L-1011 commercial transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniledes, J.; Koch, J. R.

1980-01-01

The risk associated with the accidental release of carbon/graphite fibers (CF) from fires on commercial transport aircraft incorporating composite materials was assessed. Data are developed to evaluate the potential for CF damage to electrical and electronic equipment, assess the cost risk, and evaluate the hazard to continued operation. The subjects covered include identification of susceptible equipments, determination of infiltration transfer functions, analysis of airport operations, calculation of probabilities of equipment failures, assessment of the cost risk, and evaluation of the hazard to continued operation. The results show the risks associated with CF contamination are negligible through 1993.

Scorecard implementation improves identification of postpartum patients at risk for venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Berkin, Jill A; Lee, Colleen; Landsberger, Ellen; Chazotte, Cynthia; Bernstein, Peter S; Goffman, Dena

2016-07-01

To evaluate if an intensive educational intervention in the use of a standardized venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment tool (scorecard) improves physicians' identification and chemoprophylaxis of postpartum patients at risk for VTE. After implementation of a VTE scorecard and prior to an intensive educational intervention, postpartum patients (n = 140) were evaluated to assess scorecard completion, risk factors, and chemoprophylaxis. A performance improvement campaign focusing on patient safety, VTE prevention, and scorecard utilization was then conducted. Evaluation of the same parameters was subsequently performed for a similar group of patients (n = 133). Differences in scorecard utilization and risk assessment were tested for statistical significance. Population-at-risk rates were similar in both assessment periods (31.4% vs 28.6%; p = NS). The greatest risk factors included cesarean delivery, body mass index (BMI) >30 and age >35. Scorecard completion rates for all patients increased in the postintervention period (15.7% vs 67.7%; p < .001). Postintervention scorecard completion rates for the at-risk population also improved (20% vs 79%; p < .001). In the postintervention group, those at risk with completed scorecards had higher prophylaxis rates than those at risk without scorecards (73% vs 25%; p = .03). At-risk patients with completed scorecards had 2.6 times more orders for chemoprophylaxis than at-risk patients without scorecards in both time periods (odds ratio [OR] = 8.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-22.8). Utilization of a VTE scorecard coupled with an educational intervention for health care providers increases detection and chemoprophylaxis orders for at-risk patients. Encouraging universal scorecard assessment standardizes identification and chemoprophylaxis of at-risk patients who were otherwise not perceived to be at risk. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Peplinski, William John

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for threemore » water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.« less

Quantitative risk assessment for skin sensitization: Success or failure?

PubMed

Kimber, Ian; Gerberick, G Frank; Basketter, David A

2017-02-01

Skin sensitization is unique in the world of toxicology. There is a combination of reliable, validated predictive test methods for identification of skin sensitizing chemicals, a clearly documented and transparent approach to risk assessment, and effective feedback from dermatology clinics around the world delivering evidence of the success or failure of the hazard identification/risk assessment/management process. Recent epidemics of contact allergy, particularly to preservatives, have raised questions of whether the safety/risk assessment process is working in an optimal manner (or indeed is working at all!). This review has as its focus skin sensitization quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The core toxicological principles of QRA are reviewed, and evidence of use and misuse examined. What becomes clear is that skin sensitization QRA will only function adequately if two essential criteria are met. The first is that QRA is applied rigourously, and the second is that potential exposure to the sensitizing substance is assessed adequately. This conclusion will come as no surprise to any toxicologist who appreciates the basic premise that "risk = hazard x exposure". Accordingly, use of skin sensitization QRA is encouraged, not least because the essential feedback from dermatology clinics can be used as a tool to refine QRA in situations where this risk assessment tool has not been properly used. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C.; Renn, Ortwin

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the socialmore » impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.« less

Earth observation technologies in service to the cultural landscape of Cyprus: risk identification and assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuca, Branka; Tzouvaras, Marios; Agapiou, Athos; Lysandrou, Vasiliki; Themistocleous, Kyriacos; Nisantzi, Argyro; Hadjimitsis, Diofantos G.

2016-08-01

The Cultural landscapes are witnesses of "the creative genius, social development and the imaginative and spiritual vitality of humanity. They are part of our collective identity", as it is internationally defined and accepted (ICOMOSUNESCO). The need for their protection, management and inclusion in the territorial policies has already been widely accepted and pursued. There is a great number of risks to which the cultural landscapes are exposed, arising mainly from natural (both due to slow geo-physical phenomena as well as hazards) and anthropogenic causes (e.g. urbanisation pressure, agriculture, landscape fragmentation etc.). This paper explores to what extent Earth Observation (EO) technologies can contribute to identify and evaluate the risks to which Cultural Landscapes of Cyprus are exposed, taking into consideration specific phenomena, such as land movements and soil erosion. The research of the paper is illustrated as part of the activities carried out in the CLIMA project - "Cultural Landscape risk Identification, Management and Assessment". It aims to combine the fields of remote sensing technologies, including Sentinel data, and monitoring of cultural landscape for its improved protection and management. Part of this approach will be based on the use of InSAR techniques in order to monitor the temporal evolution of deformations through the detection and measurement of the effects of surface movements caused by various factors. The case study selected for Cyprus is the Nea Paphos archeological site and historical center of Paphos, which are listed as UNESCO World Heritage sites. The interdisciplinary approach adopted in this research was useful to identify major risks affecting the landscape of Cyprus and to classify the most suitable EO methods to assess and map such risks.

Comprehensive risk assessment and source identification of selected heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg, As) in tidal saltmarsh sediments of Shuangtai Estuary, China.

PubMed

Liu, Chang-Fa; Li, Bing; Wang, Yi-Ting; Liu, Yuan; Cai, Heng-Jiang; Wei, Hai-Feng; Wu, Jia-Wen; Li, Jin

2017-10-06

Heavy metals do not degrade and can remain in the environment for a long time. In this study, we analyzed the effects of Cu, Cd, Pb, Zn, Hg, and As, on environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological hazard, and source identification of elements in sediments using data collected from samples taken from Shuangtai tidal wetland. The comprehensive pollution indices were used to assess environmental quality; fuzzy similarity analysis and geoaccumulation index were used to analyze pollution accumulation; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and clustering analysis were used to analyze pollution source; environmental risk index and ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The results showed that the environmental quality was either clean or almost clean. Pollutant enrichment analysis showed that the four sub-regions had similar pollution-causing metals to the background values of the soil element of the Liao River Plain, which were ranked according to their similarity. Source identification showed that all the elements were correlated. Ecological hazard analysis showed that the environmental risk index in the study area was less than zero, posing a low ecological risk. Ecological risk of the six elements was as follows: As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Risk Assessment Training Experience (RATE) – University of Iowa Superfund Research Center.

EPA Science Inventory

These modules will offer hands-on training in the primary areas of risk assessment (i.e., legal background, hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) at the University of Iowa Superfund Research Program on October 2, 2017. An...

Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure a...

Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duzgun, H. S. B.

2009-04-01

Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract

EPA Science Inventory

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional ap...

Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-11-15

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculationsmore » were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.« less

Using Climate Information for Disaster Risk Identification in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubair, L.

2004-12-01

We have engaged in a concerted attempt to undertake research and apply earth science information for development in Sri Lanka, with a focus on climate sciences. Here, we provide details of an ongoing attempt to harness science for disaster identification as a prelude to informed disaster management. Natural disasters not only result in death and destruction but also undermine decades of development gains as highlighted by recent examples from Sri Lanka. First, in May 2003, flooding and landslides in the South-West led to 260 deaths, damage to 120,000 homes and destruction of schools, infrastructure and agricultural land. Second, on December 26, 2000, a cyclone in the North-Central region left 8 dead, 55,000 displaced, with severe damage to fishing, agriculture, infrastructure and cultural sites. Third, an extended island-wide drought in 2001 and 2002 resulted in a 2% drop in GDP. In the aftermath of these disasters, improved disaster management has been deemed to be urgent by the Government of Sri Lanka. In the past the primary policy response to disasters was to provide emergency relief. It is increasingly recognized that appropriate disaster risk management, including risk assessment, preventive measures to reduce losses and improved preparedness, can help reduce death, destruction and socio-economic disruption. The overwhelming majority of hazards in Sri Lanka - droughts, floods, cyclones and landslides -have hydro-meteorological antecedents. Little systematic advantage has, however, been taken of hydro-meteorological information and advances in climate prediction for disaster management. Disaster risks are created by the interaction between hazard events and vulnerabilities of communities, infrastructure and economically important activities. A comprehensive disaster risk management system encompasses risk identification, risk reduction and risk transfer. We undertook an identification of risks for Sri Lanka at fine scale with the support of the Global Disaster

QUANTITATION OF MOLECULAR ENDPOINTS FOR THE DOSE-RESPONSE COMPONENT OF CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Cancer risk assessment involves the steps of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. The rapid advances in the use of molecular biology approaches has had an impact on all four components, but the greatest overall current...

Incorporating biologically based models into assessments of risk from chemical contaminants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bull, R. J.; Conolly, R. B.; De Marini, D. M.; MacPhail, R. C.; Ohanian, E. V.; Swenberg, J. A.

1993-01-01

The general approach to assessment of risk from chemical contaminants in drinking water involves three steps: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and dose-response assessment. Traditionally, the risks to humans associated with different levels of a chemical have been derived from the toxic responses observed in animals. It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that further information is needed if risks to humans are to be assessed accurately. Biologically based models help clarify the dose-response relationship and reduce uncertainty.

Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

PubMed

Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2016-01-01

Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

PubMed

Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

2016-12-01

Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment, and Control Measures as an Effective Tool of Occupational Health Assessment of Hazardous Process in an Iron Ore Pelletizing Industry.

PubMed

Rout, B K; Sikdar, B K

2017-01-01

With the growing numbers of iron ore pelletization industries in India, various impacts on environment and health in relation to the workplace will rise. Therefore, understanding the hazardous process is crucial in the development of effective control measures. Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment, and Control measures (HIRAC) acts as an effective tool of Occupational Health Assessment. The aim of the study was to identify all the possible hazards at different workplaces of an iron ore pelletizing industry, to conduct an occupational health risk assessment, to calculate the risk rating based on the risk matrix, and to compare the risk rating before and after the control measures. The research was a cross-sectional study done from March to December 2015 in an iron ore pelletizing industry located in Odisha, India. Data from the survey were collected by inspecting the workplace, responses of employees regarding possible hazards in their workplace, reviewing department procedure manual, work instructions, standard operating procedure, previous incident reports, material safety data sheet, first aid/injury register, and health record of employees. A total of 116 hazards were identified. Results of the paired-sample's t -test showed that mean risk rating differs before taking control measures (M = 9.13, SD = 5.99) and after taking control measures (M = 2.80, SD = 1.38) at the 0.0001 level of significance ( t = 12.6428, df = 115, N = 116, P < 0.0001, 95% CI for mean difference 5.34 to 7.32). On an average, risk reduction was about 6.33 points lower after taking control measures. The hazards having high-risk rating and above were reduced to a level considered As Low as Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) when the control measures were applied, thereby reducing the occurrence of injury or disease in the workplace.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

Health risk assessment and the practice of industrial hygiene.

PubMed

Paustenbach, D J

1990-07-01

It has been claimed that there may be as many as 2000 airborne chemicals to which persons could be exposed in the workplace and in the community. Of these, occupational exposure limits have been set for approximately 700 chemicals, and only about 30 chemicals have limits for the ambient air. It is likely that some type of health risk assessment methodology will be used to establish limits for the remainder. Although these methods have been used for over 10 yr to set environmental limits, each step of the process (hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) contains a number of traps into which scientists and risk managers can fall. For example, regulatory approaches to the hazard identification step have allowed little discrimination between the various animal carcinogens, even though these chemicals can vary greatly in their potency and mechanisms of action. In general, epidemiology data have been given little weight compared to the results of rodent bioassays. The dose-response extrapolation process, as generally practiced, often does not present the range of equally plausible values. Procedures which acknowledge and quantitatively account for some or all of the different classes of chemical carcinogens have not been widely adopted. For example, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) and biologically based models need to become a part of future risk assessments. The exposure evaluation portion of risk assessments can now be significantly more valid because of better dispersion models, validated exposure parameters, and the use of computers to account for complex environmental factors. Using these procedures, industrial hygienists are now able to quantitatively estimate the risks caused not only by the inhalation of chemicals but also those caused by dermal contact and incidental ingestion. The appropriate use of risk assessment methods should allow scientists and risk managers to set scientifically valid

Emotion identification in girls at high risk for depression.

PubMed

Joormann, Jutta; Gilbert, Kirsten; Gotlib, Ian H

2010-05-01

Children of depressed mothers are themselves at elevated risk for developing a depressive disorder. We have little understanding, however, of the specific factors that contribute to this increased risk. This study investigated whether never-disordered daughters whose mothers have experienced recurrent episodes of depression during their daughters' lifetime differ from never-disordered daughters of never-disordered mothers in their processing of facial expressions of emotion. Following a negative mood induction, daughters completed an emotion identification task in which they watched faces slowly change from a neutral to a full-intensity happy, sad, or angry expression. We assessed both the intensity that was required to accurately identify the emotion being expressed and errors in emotion identification. Daughters of depressed mothers required greater intensity than did daughters of control mothers to accurately identify sad facial expressions; they also made significantly more errors identifying angry expressions. Cognitive biases may increase vulnerability for the onset of disorders and should be considered in early intervention and prevention efforts.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

PubMed

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barlow, Susan, E-mail: suebarlow@mistral.co.u; Schlatter, Josef; Federal Office of Public Health, Consumer Protection Directorate, Stauffacherstrasse 101, CH-8004 Zuerich

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitudemore » below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.« less

Facial emotion identification and sexual assault risk detection among college student sexual assault victims and nonvictims.

PubMed

Melkonian, Alexander J; Ham, Lindsay S; Bridges, Ana J; Fugitt, Jessica L

2017-10-01

High rates of sexual victimization among college students necessitate further study of factors associated with sexual assault risk detection. The present study examined how social information processing relates to sexual assault risk detection as a function of sexual assault victimization history. 225 undergraduates (M age = 19.12, SD = 1.44; 66% women). Participants completed an online questionnaire assessing victimization history, an emotion identification task, and a sexual assault risk detection task between June 2013 and May 2014. Emotion identification moderated the association between victimization history and risk detection such that sexual assault survivors with lower emotion identification accuracy also reported the least risk in a sexual assault vignette. Findings suggest that differences in social information processing, specifically recognition of others' emotions, are associated with sexual assault risk detection. College prevention programs could incorporate emotional awareness strategies, particularly for men and women who are sexual assault survivors.

Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

2012-04-01

The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Remotely Sensed Quantitative Drought Risk Assessment in Vulnerable Agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, N. R.; Blanta, A.; Spyropoulos, N. V.

2012-04-01

Hazard may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Drought is considered as one of the major natural hazards with significant impact to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper deals with drought risk assessment, which the first step designed to find out what the problems are and comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk management which is not covered in this paper, there should be a fourth step to address the need for feedback and to take post-audits of all risk assessment exercises. In particular, quantitative drought risk assessment is attempted by using statistical methods. For the qualification of drought, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is employed, which is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The remotely sensed estimation of RDI is based on NOA-AVHRR satellite data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). The study area is Thessaly, central Greece, which is a drought-prone agricultural region characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Specifically, the undertaken drought risk assessment processes are specified as follows: 1. Risk identification: This step involves drought quantification and monitoring based on remotely sensed RDI and extraction of several features such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Moreover, it involves a drought early warning system based on the above parameters. 2. Risk estimation: This step includes an analysis of drought severity, frequency and their relationships. 3. Risk evaluation: This step covers drought evaluation based on analysis of RDI images before and after each drought episode, which usually lasts one hydrological year (12month). The results of these three-step drought assessment processes are considered quite satisfactory in a drought-prone region such as Thessaly in central

The re-identification risk of Canadians from longitudinal demographics

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The public is less willing to allow their personal health information to be disclosed for research purposes if they do not trust researchers and how researchers manage their data. However, the public is more comfortable with their data being used for research if the risk of re-identification is low. There are few studies on the risk of re-identification of Canadians from their basic demographics, and no studies on their risk from their longitudinal data. Our objective was to estimate the risk of re-identification from the basic cross-sectional and longitudinal demographics of Canadians. Methods Uniqueness is a common measure of re-identification risk. Demographic data on a 25% random sample of the population of Montreal were analyzed to estimate population uniqueness on postal code, date of birth, and gender as well as their generalizations, for periods ranging from 1 year to 11 years. Results Almost 98% of the population was unique on full postal code, date of birth and gender: these three variables are effectively a unique identifier for Montrealers. Uniqueness increased for longitudinal data. Considerable generalization was required to reach acceptably low uniqueness levels, especially for longitudinal data. Detailed guidelines and disclosure policies on how to ensure that the re-identification risk is low are provided. Conclusions A large percentage of Montreal residents are unique on basic demographics. For non-longitudinal data sets, the three character postal code, gender, and month/year of birth represent sufficiently low re-identification risk. Data custodians need to generalize their demographic information further for longitudinal data sets. PMID:21696636

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

PubMed

Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

2014-03-17

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

Remotely Sensed Hydrometeorological and Agrometeorological Drought Risk Identification for Sustainable Agriculture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalezios, Nicolas R.; Blanta, Anna; Spyropoulos, Nicos

2013-04-01

Drought is considered as one of the major environmental hazards with significant impacts to agriculture, environment, economy and society. This paper addresses drought as a hazard within the risk management framework. Indeed, hazards may be defined as a potential threat to humans and their welfare and risk (or consequence) as the probability of a hazard occurring and creating loss. Besides, risk management consists of risk assessment and feedback of the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. In order to ensure sustainability in agricultural production a better understanding of the natural disasters, in particular droughts, that impact agriculture is essential. Droughts may result in environmental degradation of an area, which is one of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of agriculture, because it directly magnifies the risk of natural disasters. This paper deals with drought risk identification, which involves hazard quantification, event monitoring including early warning systems and statistical inference. For drought quantification the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) combined with Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is employed. RDI is a new index based on hydrometeorological parameters, and in particular precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which has been recently modified to incorporate monthly satellite (NOAA/AVHAA) data for a period of 20 years (1981-2001). VHI is based on NDVI. The study area is Thessaly in central Greece, which is one of the major agricultural areas of the country occasionally facing droughts. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed RID and VHI images and several drought features are extracted such as severity, duration, areal extent, onset and end time. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of the above mentioned features. In particular, two second-order polynomials

There is more to risk and safety planning than dramatic risks: Mental health nurses' risk assessment and safety-management practice.

PubMed

Higgins, Agnes; Doyle, Louise; Downes, Carmel; Morrissey, Jean; Costello, Paul; Brennan, Michael; Nash, Michael

2016-04-01

Risk assessment and safety planning are considered a cornerstone of mental health practice, yet limited research exists into how mental health nurses conceptualize 'risk' and how they engage with risk assessment and safety planning. The aim of the present study was to explore mental health nurses' practices and confidence in risk assessment and safety planning. A self-completed survey was administered to 381 mental health nurses in Ireland. The findings indicate that nurses focus on risk to self and risk to others, with the risk of suicide, self-harm, substance abuse, and violence being most frequently assessed. Risk from others and 'iatrogenic' risk were less frequently considered. Overall, there was limited evidence of recovery-oriented practice in relation to risk. The results demonstrate a lack of meaningful engagement with respect to collaborative safety planning, the identification and inclusion of protective factors, and the inclusion of positive risk-taking opportunities. In addition, respondents report a lack of confidence working with positive risk taking and involving family/carers in the risk-assessment and safety-planning process. Gaps in knowledge about risk-assessment and safety-planning practice, which could be addressed through education, are identified, as are the implications of the findings for practice and research. © 2015 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Ontology-based specification, identification and analysis of perioperative risks.

PubMed

Uciteli, Alexandr; Neumann, Juliane; Tahar, Kais; Saleh, Kutaiba; Stucke, Stephan; Faulbrück-Röhr, Sebastian; Kaeding, André; Specht, Martin; Schmidt, Tobias; Neumuth, Thomas; Besting, Andreas; Stegemann, Dominik; Portheine, Frank; Herre, Heinrich

2017-09-06

Medical personnel in hospitals often works under great physical and mental strain. In medical decision-making, errors can never be completely ruled out. Several studies have shown that between 50 and 60% of adverse events could have been avoided through better organization, more attention or more effective security procedures. Critical situations especially arise during interdisciplinary collaboration and the use of complex medical technology, for example during surgical interventions and in perioperative settings (the period of time before, during and after surgical intervention). In this paper, we present an ontology and an ontology-based software system, which can identify risks across medical processes and supports the avoidance of errors in particular in the perioperative setting. We developed a practicable definition of the risk notion, which is easily understandable by the medical staff and is usable for the software tools. Based on this definition, we developed a Risk Identification Ontology (RIO) and used it for the specification and the identification of perioperative risks. An agent system was developed, which gathers risk-relevant data during the whole perioperative treatment process from various sources and provides it for risk identification and analysis in a centralized fashion. The results of such an analysis are provided to the medical personnel in form of context-sensitive hints and alerts. For the identification of the ontologically specified risks, we developed an ontology-based software module, called Ontology-based Risk Detector (OntoRiDe). About 20 risks relating to cochlear implantation (CI) have already been implemented. Comprehensive testing has indicated the correctness of the data acquisition, risk identification and analysis components, as well as the web-based visualization of results.

Evaluating the Risk of Re-identification of Patients from Hospital Prescription Records.

PubMed

Emam, Khaled El; Dankar, Fida K; Vaillancourt, Régis; Roffey, Tyson; Lysyk, Mary

2009-07-01

Pharmacies often provide prescription records to private research firms, on the assumption that these records are de-identified (i.e., identifying information has been removed). However, concerns have been expressed about the potential that patients can be re-identified from such records. Recently, a large private research firm requested prescription records from the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO), as part of a larger effort to develop a database of hospital prescription records across Canada. To evaluate the ability to re-identify patients from CHEO'S prescription records and to determine ways to appropriately de-identify the data if the risk was too high. The risk of re-identification was assessed for 18 months' worth of prescription data. De-identification algorithms were developed to reduce the risk to an acceptable level while maintaining the quality of the data. The probability of patients being re-identified from the original variables and data set requested by the private research firm was deemed quite high. A new de-identified record layout was developed, which had an acceptable level of re-identification risk. The new approach involved replacing the admission and discharge dates with the quarter and year of admission and the length of stay in days, reporting the patient's age in weeks, and including only the first character of the patient's postal code. Additional requirements were included in the data-sharing agreement with the private research firm (e.g., audit requirements and a protocol for notification of a breach of privacy). Without a formal analysis of the risk of re-identification, assurances of data anonymity may not be accurate. A formal risk analysis at one hospital produced a clinically relevant data set that also protects patient privacy and allows the hospital pharmacy to explicitly manage the risks of breach of patient privacy.

Microbial Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

2009-01-01

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose

Effectiveness of FISK, an invasiveness screening tool for non-native freshwater fishes, to perform risk identification assessments in the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Almeida, David; Ribeiro, Filipe; Leunda, Pedro M; Vilizzi, Lorenzo; Copp, Gordon H

2013-08-01

Risk assessments are crucial for identifying and mitigating impacts from biological invasions. The Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) is a risk identification (screening) tool for freshwater fishes consisting of two subject areas: biogeography/history and biology/ecology. According to the outcomes, species can be classified under particular risk categories. The aim of this study was to apply FISK to the Iberian Peninsula, a Mediterranean climate region highly important for freshwater fish conservation due to a high level of endemism. In total, 89 fish species were assessed by three independent assessors. Results from receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that FISK can discriminate reliably between noninvasive and invasive fishes for Iberia, with a threshold of 20.25, similar to those obtained in several regions around the world. Based on mean scores, no species was categorized as "low risk," 50 species as "medium risk," 17 as "moderately high risk," 11 as "high risk," and 11 as "very high risk." The highest scoring species was goldfish Carassius auratus. Mean certainty in response was above the category "mostly certain," ranging from tinfoil barb Barbonymus schwanenfeldii with the lowest certainty to eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki with the highest level. Pair-wise comparison showed significant differences between one assessor and the other two on mean certainty, with these two assessors showing a high coincidence rate for the species categorization. Overall, the results suggest that FISK is a useful and viable tool for assessing risks posed by non-native fish in the Iberian Peninsula and contributes to a "watch list" in this region. © 2013 Crown copyright This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

[A preliminary mapping methodology for occupational hazards and biomechanical risk evaluation: presentation of a simple, computerized tool kit for ergonomic hazards identification and risk assessment].

PubMed

Colombini, Daniela; Occhipinti, E; Di Leone, G

2011-01-01

During the last Congress of the International Ergonomics Association (IEA), Beijing, August 2009, an international group was founded with the task of developing a "toolkit for MSD prevention" under the IEA and in collaboration with the World Health Organization. The possible users of toolkits are: members of health and safety committees; health and safety representatives; line supervisors; foremen; workers; government representatives; health workers providing basic occupational health services; occupational health and safety specialists. According to the ISO standard 11228 series and the new Draft CD ISO 12259-2009: Application document guides for the potential user, our group developed a preliminary "mapping" methodology of occupational hazards in the craft industry, supported by software (Excel). The proposed methodology, using specific key enters and quick assessment criteria, allows a simple ergonomics hazards identification and risk estimation to be made. It is thus possible to decide for which occupational hazards a more exhaustive risk assessment will be necessary and which occupational consultant should be involved (occupational physician, safety engineer, industrial hygienist, etc.).

Toxicovigilance: a new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings.

PubMed

Descotes, Jacques; Testud, François

2005-09-01

The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or corrective measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.

Toxicovigilance: A new approach for the hazard identification and risk assessment of toxicants in human beings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Descotes, Jacques; Testud, Francois

2005-09-01

The concept of toxicovigilance encompasses the active detection, validation and follow-up of clinical adverse events related to toxic exposures in human beings. Poison centers are key players in this function as poisoning statistics are essential to define the cause, incidence and severity of poisonings occurring in the general population. In addition, the systematic search for unexpected shifts in the recorded causes of poisonings, e.g., following the introduction of a new product, or change in the formulation or recommended use of an old product, allows for a rapid detection of potential adverse health consequences and the implementation of preventive or correctivemore » measures. However, toxicovigilance is genuinely a medical and not only a statistical approach of human toxicity issues. In contrast to epidemiology, toxicovigilance is based on the in-depth medical assessment of acute or chronic intoxications on an individual basis, which requires detailed information that poison centers can rarely obtain via emergency telephone calls and that epidemiologists cannot collect or process. Validation of this medical information must primarily be based on toxicological expertise to help identify causal links between otherwise unexplained pathological conditions and documented toxic exposures. Thus, toxicovigilance can contribute to hazard identification and risk assessment by providing medically validated data which are often overlooked in the process of risk assessment. So far, very few structured toxicovigilance systems have been set up and hopefully national and international initiatives will bridge this gap in our knowledge of the toxicity of many chemicals and commercial products in human beings.« less

Pediatrician identification of Latino children at risk for autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Katharine E; Mattox, Kimber; Donelan, Karen; Batbayar, Oyundari; Baghaee, Anita; Bethell, Christina

2013-09-01

Latino-white disparities in age at autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis may be modified by primary care pediatrician (PCP) practices and beliefs. The objectives of this study were to assess ASD and developmental screening practices, attitudes toward ASD identification in Latino children, and barriers to ASD identification for Latino children, in a sample of 267 California PCPs. In mail-based PCP survey, we assessed rates of bilingual general developmental and ASD screening, perceptions of parent ASD knowledge in Latino and white families, reports of difficulty assessing for ASDs in Latino and white children, and perceptions of barriers to early ASD identification for Latinos. Although 81% of PCPs offered some form of developmental screening, 29% of PCPs offered Spanish ASD screening per American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines, and only 10% offered both Spanish general developmental and Spanish ASD screening per American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines. Most PCPs thought that Latino (English and Spanish primary family language) parents were less knowledgeable about ASDs than white parents. PCPs had more difficulty assessing ASD risk for Latino children with Spanish primary family language than for white children, even when the PCP conducted recommended ASD screening or had >25% Latino patients. The most frequent barrier to ASD identification in Latinos was access to developmental specialists. Multiple factors in the primary care setting may contribute to delayed ASD identification for Latinos. Promoting language-appropriate screening, disseminating culturally appropriate ASD materials to Latino families, improving the specialist workforce, and providing PCP support in screening and referral of Latino children may be important ways to reduce racial and ethnic differences in care.

Early identification and high-risk strategies for bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Correll, Christoph U; Penzner, Julie B; Lencz, Todd; Auther, Andrea; Smith, Christopher W; Malhotra, Anil K; Kane, John M; Cornblatt, Barbara A

2007-06-01

To describe and compare the relative merits of different identification strategies for individuals at risk for bipolar disorder (BPD). Selective review of data that support early identification in BPD, with a particular focus on emerging clinical high-risk strategies. Early detection of individuals at risk for BPD can utilize genetic, endophenotypic and clinical methods. Most published work focuses on genetic familial endophenotypic risk markers for BPD. However, despite encouraging results, problems with specificity and sensitivity limit the application of these data to early prevention programs. In addition, offspring studies of BPD patients systematically exclude the majority of subjects without a first-degree bipolar relative. On the other hand, emerging work in the clinical-high-risk arena has already produced encouraging results. Although still preliminary, the identification of individuals in subsyndromal or attenuated symptom 'prodromal' stages of BPD seems to be an under-researched area that holds considerable promise deserving increased attention. Required next steps include the development of rating tools for attenuated and subsyndromal manic and depressive symptoms and of prodromal criteria that will allow prodromal symptomatology to be systematically studied in patients with recent-onset bipolar, as well as in prospective population-based phenomenology trials and attenuated symptom-based high-risk studies. Given the current limitations of each early identification method, combining clinical, endophenotypic and genetic strategies will increase prediction accuracy. Since reliable biological markers for BPD have not been established and since most patients with BPD lack a first-degree relative with this disorder, clinical high-risk approaches have great potential to inform early identification and intervention programs.

Considerations for Using Genetic and Epigenetic Information in Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Standard Setting

PubMed Central

Schulte, P. A.; Whittaker, C.; Curran, C. P.

2015-01-01

Risk assessment forms the basis for both occupational health decision-making and the development of occupational exposure limits (OELs). Although genetic and epigenetic data have not been widely used in risk assessment and ultimately, standard setting, it is possible to envision such uses. A growing body of literature demonstrates that genetic and epigenetic factors condition biological responses to occupational and environmental hazards or serve as targets of them. This presentation addresses the considerations for using genetic and epigenetic information in risk assessments, provides guidance on using this information within the classic risk assessment paradigm, and describes a framework to organize thinking about such uses. The framework is a 4 × 4 matrix involving the risk assessment functions (hazard identification, dose-response modeling, exposure assessment, and risk characterization) on one axis and inherited and acquired genetic and epigenetic data on the other axis. The cells in the matrix identify how genetic and epigenetic data can be used for each risk assessment function. Generally, genetic and epigenetic data might be used as endpoints in hazard identification, as indicators of exposure, as effect modifiers in exposure assessment and dose-response modeling, as descriptors of mode of action, and to characterize toxicity pathways. Vast amounts of genetic and epigenetic data may be generated by high-throughput technologies. These data can be useful for assessing variability and reducing uncertainty in extrapolations, and they may serve as the foundation upon which identification of biological perturbations would lead to a new paradigm of toxicity pathway-based risk assessments. PMID:26583908

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Fall-Risk Self-Assessment for Community-Dwelling Seniors

PubMed Central

Vivrette, Rebecca L.; Rubenstein, Laurence Z.; Martin, Jennifer L.; Josephson, Karen R.; Kramer, B. Josea

2012-01-01

Objective To determine seniors’ beliefs about falls and design a fall-risk self-assessment and educational materials to promote early identification of evidence-based fall risks and encourage prevention behaviors. Methods Focus groups with community-dwelling seniors, conducted in two phases to identify perceptions about fall risks and risk reduction and to assess face validity of the fall-risk self-assessment and acceptability of educational materials. Results Lay perception of fall risks was in general concordance with evidence-based research. Maintaining independence and positive tone were perceived as key motivators for fall prevention. Seniors intended to use information in the educational tool to stimulate discussions about falls with health care providers. Implications An evidence-based, educational fall-risk self-assessment acceptable to older adults can build on existing lay knowledge about fall risks and perception that falls are a relevant problem and can educate seniors about their specific risks and how to minimize them. PMID:21285473

Assessment of health risks of policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk; Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen; Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidancemore » and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.« less

Evaluating re-identification risks with respect to the HIPAA privacy rule

PubMed Central

Benitez, Kathleen

2010-01-01

Objective Many healthcare organizations follow data protection policies that specify which patient identifiers must be suppressed to share “de-identified” records. Such policies, however, are often applied without knowledge of the risk of “re-identification”. The goals of this work are: (1) to estimate re-identification risk for data sharing policies of the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Privacy Rule; and (2) to evaluate the risk of a specific re-identification attack using voter registration lists. Measurements We define several risk metrics: (1) expected number of re-identifications; (2) estimated proportion of a population in a group of size g or less, and (3) monetary cost per re-identification. For each US state, we estimate the risk posed to hypothetical datasets, protected by the HIPAA Safe Harbor and Limited Dataset policies by an attacker with full knowledge of patient identifiers and with limited knowledge in the form of voter registries. Results The percentage of a state's population estimated to be vulnerable to unique re-identification (ie, g=1) when protected via Safe Harbor and Limited Datasets ranges from 0.01% to 0.25% and 10% to 60%, respectively. In the voter attack, this number drops for many states, and for some states is 0%, due to the variable availability of voter registries in the real world. We also find that re-identification cost ranges from $0 to $17 000, further confirming risk variability. Conclusions This work illustrates that blanket protection policies, such as Safe Harbor, leave different organizations vulnerable to re-identification at different rates. It provides justification for locally performed re-identification risk estimates prior to sharing data. PMID:20190059

The Importance of Context: Risk-based De-identification of Biomedical Data.

PubMed

Prasser, Fabian; Kohlmayer, Florian; Kuhn, Klaus A

2016-08-05

Data sharing is a central aspect of modern biomedical research. It is accompanied by significant privacy concerns and often data needs to be protected from re-identification. With methods of de-identification datasets can be transformed in such a way that it becomes extremely difficult to link their records to identified individuals. The most important challenge in this process is to find an adequate balance between an increase in privacy and a decrease in data quality. Accurately measuring the risk of re-identification in a specific data sharing scenario is an important aspect of data de-identification. Overestimation of risks will significantly deteriorate data quality, while underestimation will leave data prone to attacks on privacy. Several models have been proposed for measuring risks, but there is a lack of generic methods for risk-based data de-identification. The aim of the work described in this article was to bridge this gap and to show how the quality of de-identified datasets can be improved by using risk models to tailor the process of de-identification to a concrete context. We implemented a generic de-identification process and several models for measuring re-identification risks into the ARX de-identification tool for biomedical data. By integrating the methods into an existing framework, we were able to automatically transform datasets in such a way that information loss is minimized while it is ensured that re-identification risks meet a user-defined threshold. We performed an extensive experimental evaluation to analyze the impact of using different risk models and assumptions about the goals and the background knowledge of an attacker on the quality of de-identified data. The results of our experiments show that data quality can be improved significantly by using risk models for data de-identification. On a scale where 100 % represents the original input dataset and 0 % represents a dataset from which all information has been removed, the

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals

PubMed Central

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N.

2016-01-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs. PMID:26847432

Using systematic reviews for hazard and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Vandenberg, Laura N

2015-12-01

The possibility that endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in our environment contribute to hormonally related effects and diseases observed in human and wildlife populations has caused concern among decision makers and researchers alike. EDCs challenge principles traditionally applied in chemical risk assessment and the identification and assessment of these compounds has been a much debated topic during the last decade. State of the science reports and risk assessments of potential EDCs have been criticized for not using systematic and transparent approaches in the evaluation of evidence. In the fields of medicine and health care, systematic review methodologies have been developed and used to enable objectivity and transparency in the evaluation of scientific evidence for decision making. Lately, such approaches have also been promoted for use in the environmental health sciences and risk assessment of chemicals. Systematic review approaches could provide a tool for improving the evaluation of evidence for decision making regarding EDCs, e.g. by enabling systematic and transparent use of academic research data in this process. In this review we discuss the advantages and challenges of applying systematic review methodology in the identification and assessment of EDCs.

[DIFFERENT APPROACHES FOR CHEMICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN LABORATORIES].

PubMed

Caporossi, Lidia; Papaleo, Bruno; Capanna, Silvia; Calicchia, Sara; Marcellini, Laura; De Rosa, Mariangela; Castellano, Paola

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the different approaches used for chemical risk assessment, in relation to the perception of riskfor operators, in some research laboratories of a hospital in Rome. All information regarding the chemicals used for the application of three algorithmic models for chemical risk assessment ("Movarisch", "Inforisk", "Archimede") were collected. An environmental and biological monitoring and a study on the combined exposure to multiple chemicals using the World Health Organization proposed steps were carried out. A questionnaire was prepared for the identification of risk perception. An estimation of chemical risk with algorithms was compared with data from monitoring: findings showed that estimated risk was higher than those identified with airborne or urine concentrations, always under their limit values. The study of multiple exposure showed a possible cumulative risk, in some cases, but the conditions of use (volume and time) often bring to a reduced one. The perception of risk attributed to the monitored hazardous substances showed a correct perception in all laboratories and for all workers, with regard to the substances manipulated.

Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

PubMed

Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

2012-10-01

Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

EPA Science Inventory

Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

The application of quantitative risk assessment to microbial food safety risks.

PubMed

Jaykus, L A

1996-01-01

Regulatory programs and guidelines for the control of foodborne microbial agents have existed in the U.S. for nearly 100 years. However, increased awareness of the scope and magnitude of foodborne disease, as well as the emergence of previously unrecognized human pathogens transmitted via the foodborne route, have prompted regulatory officials to consider new and improved strategies to reduce the health risks associated with pathogenic microorganisms in foods. Implementation of these proposed strategies will involve definitive costs for a finite level of risk reduction. While regulatory decisions regarding the management of foodborne disease risk have traditionally been done with the aid of the scientific community, a formal conceptual framework for the evaluation of health risks from pathogenic microorganisms in foods is warranted. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA), which is formally defined as the technical assessment of the nature and magnitude of a risk caused by a hazard, provides such a framework. Reproducing microorganisms in foods present a particular challenge to QRA because both their introduction and numbers may be affected by numerous factors within the food chain, with all of these factors representing significant stages in food production, handling, and consumption, in a farm-to-table type of approach. The process of QRA entails four designated phases: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) dose-response assessment, and (4) risk characterization. Specific analytical tools are available to accomplish the analyses required for each phase of the QRA. The purpose of this paper is to provide a description of the conceptual framework for quantitative microbial risk assessment within the standard description provided by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) paradigm. Each of the sequential steps in QRA are discussed in detail, providing information on current applications, tools for conducting the analyses, and methodological and/or data

Risk assessment of fluoride exposure in drinking water of Tunisia.

PubMed

Guissouma, Wiem; Hakami, Othman; Al-Rajab, Abdul Jabbar; Tarhouni, Jamila

2017-06-01

The presence of fluoride in drinking water is known to reduce dental cavities among consumers, but an excessive intake of this anion might leads to dental and skeletal fluorosis. This study reports a complete survey of the fluoridated tap water taken from 100 water consumption points in Tunisia. The fluoride concentrations in tap water were between 0 and 2.4 mg L -1 . Risk assessment of Fluoride exposure was assessed depending on the age of consumers using a four-step method: hazard identification, toxicity reference values selection (TRVs), daily exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Our findings suggest that approximately 75% of the Tunisian population is at risk for dental decay, 25% have a potential dental fluorosis risk, and 20% might have a skeletal fluorosis risk according to the limits of fluoride in drinking water recommended by WHO. More investigations are recommended to assess the exposure risk of fluoride in other sources of drinking water such as bottled water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as

Screening and Assessment of Young Children at Developmental Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meier, John

Presented in the monograph are current or proposed methods for screening and assessing children, from birth to 5 years of age, who have diverse developmental disorders or who are at risk, and whose mental and physical development will benefit from early identification and intervention. Considered in relation to general screening are a screening…

Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

2017-09-01

Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

[Usefulness of scoring risk for adverse outcomes in older patients with the Identification of Seniors at Risk scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool: a meta-analysis].

PubMed

Rivero-Santana, Amado; Del Pino-Sedeño, Tasmania; Ramallo-Fariña, Yolanda; Vergara, Itziar; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

2017-02-01

A considerable proportion of the geriatric population experiences unfavorable outcomes of hospital emergency department care. An assessment of risk for adverse outcomes would facilitate making changes in clinical management by adjusting available resources to needs according to an individual patient's risk. Risk assessment tools are available, but their prognostic precision varies. This systematic review sought to quantify the prognostic precision of 2 geriatric screening and risk assessment tools commonly used in emergency settings for patients at high risk of adverse outcomes (revisits, functional deterioration, readmissions, or death): the Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) scale and the Triage Risk Screening Tool (TRST). We searched PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and SCOPUS, with no date limits, to find relevant studies. Quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 checklist (for quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies). We pooled data for prognostic yield reported for the ISAR and TRST scores for each short- and medium-term outcome using bivariate random-effects modeling. The sensitivity of the ISAR scoring system as a whole ranged between 67% and 99%; specificity fell between 21% and 41%. TRST sensitivity ranged between 52% and 75% and specificity between 39% and 51%.We conclude that the tools currently used to assess risk of adverse outcomes in patients of advanced age attended in hospital emergency departments do not have adequate prognostic precision to be clinically useful.

Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

2010-01-01

Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

A Game Theoretic Framework for Analyzing Re-Identification Risk

PubMed Central

Wan, Zhiyu; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Xia, Weiyi; Clayton, Ellen Wright; Kantarcioglu, Murat; Ganta, Ranjit; Heatherly, Raymond; Malin, Bradley A.

2015-01-01

Given the potential wealth of insights in personal data the big databases can provide, many organizations aim to share data while protecting privacy by sharing de-identified data, but are concerned because various demonstrations show such data can be re-identified. Yet these investigations focus on how attacks can be perpetrated, not the likelihood they will be realized. This paper introduces a game theoretic framework that enables a publisher to balance re-identification risk with the value of sharing data, leveraging a natural assumption that a recipient only attempts re-identification if its potential gains outweigh the costs. We apply the framework to a real case study, where the value of the data to the publisher is the actual grant funding dollar amounts from a national sponsor and the re-identification gain of the recipient is the fine paid to a regulator for violation of federal privacy rules. There are three notable findings: 1) it is possible to achieve zero risk, in that the recipient never gains from re-identification, while sharing almost as much data as the optimal solution that allows for a small amount of risk; 2) the zero-risk solution enables sharing much more data than a commonly invoked de-identification policy of the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA); and 3) a sensitivity analysis demonstrates these findings are robust to order-of-magnitude changes in player losses and gains. In combination, these findings provide support that such a framework can enable pragmatic policy decisions about de-identified data sharing. PMID:25807380

Implanting inequality: empirical evidence of social and ethical risks of implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices.

PubMed

Monahan, Torin; Fisher, Jill A

2010-10-01

The aim of this study was to assess empirically the social and ethical risks associated with implantable radio-frequency identification (RFID) devices. Qualitative research included observational studies in twenty-three U.S. hospitals that have implemented new patient identification systems and eighty semi-structured interviews about the social and ethical implications of new patient identification systems, including RFID implants. The study identified three primary social and ethical risks associated with RFID implants: (i) unfair prioritization of patients based on their participation in the system, (ii) diminished trust of patients by care providers, and (iii) endangerment of patients who misunderstand the capabilities of the systems. RFID implants may aggravate inequalities in access to care without any clear health benefits. This research underscores the importance of critically evaluating new healthcare technologies from the perspective of both normative ethics and empirical ethics.

An overview on the emerging area of identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps.

PubMed

Paglialonga, Alessia; Lugo, Alessandra; Santoro, Eugenio

2018-05-28

The need to characterize and assess health apps has inspired a significant amount of research in the past years, in search for methods able to provide potential app users with relevant, meaningful knowledge. This article presents an overview of the recent literature in this field and categorizes - by discussing some specific examples - the various methodologies introduced so far for the identification, characterization, and assessment of health apps. Specifically, this article outlines the most significant web-based resources for app identification, relevant frameworks for descriptive characterization of apps' features, and a number of methods for the assessment of quality along its various components (e.g., evidence base, trustworthiness, privacy, or user engagement). The development of methods to characterize the apps' features and to assess their quality is important to define benchmarks and minimum requirements. Similarly, such methods are important to categorize potential risks and challenges in the field so that risks can be minimized, whenever possible, by design. Understanding methods to assess apps is key to raise the standards of quality of health apps on the market, towards the final goal of delivering apps that are built on the pillars of evidence-base, reliability, long-term effectiveness, and user-oriented quality. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modifying a Risk Assessment Instrument for Youthful Offenders.

PubMed

Shapiro, Cheri J; Malone, Patrick S; Gavazzi, Stephen M

2018-02-01

High rates of incarceration in the United States are compounded by high rates of recidivism and prison return. One solution is more accurate identification of individual prisoner risks and needs to promote offender rehabilitation and successful community re-entry; this is particularly important for youthful offenders who developmentally are in late adolescence or early adulthood, and who struggle to reengage in education and/or employment after release. Thus, this study examined the feasibility of administration and initial psychometric properties of a risk and needs assessment instrument originally created for a juvenile justice population (the Global Risk Assessment Device or GRAD) with 895 male youthful offenders in one adult correctional system. Initial feasibility of implementation within the correctional system was demonstrated; confirmatory factor analyses support the invariance of the modified GRAD factor structure across age and race. Future studies are needed to examine the predictive validity and the sensitivity of the instrument.

Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants.

PubMed Central

Möller, L; Schuetzle, D; Autrup, H

1994-01-01

This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out this research. PMID:7529703

Caseworker assessments of risk for recurrent maltreatment: association with case-specific risk factors and re-reports.

PubMed

Dorsey, Shannon; Mustillo, Sarah A; Farmer, Elizabeth M Z; Elbogen, Eric

2008-03-01

This article focuses on caseworkers' assessments of risk of maltreatment recurrence among families in contact with social services. Specifically, the article has two primary goals: (1) to examine the association between caseworkers' risk assessments and demographic, child, parent and family-level risk factors; and (2) to examine agreement between caseworkers' risk assessments and any subsequent report, or reports, of maltreatment. Data are from the baseline, 12-month, and 18-month assessments of the National Survey for Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW), a nationally representative sample of youth and families who were the subjects of allegations of maltreatment investigated by child welfare agencies. The sample consisted of a subset of NSCAW participants: cases with a report of child physical abuse or neglect who were not placed in out-of-home care (N=2,139). Analyses indicated that parent-level risk factors and a prior report of maltreatment were most strongly associated with caseworkers' assessments of risk for both physical abuse and neglect cases. A smaller set of factors, which varied by the type of maltreatment, were associated with a subsequent report of maltreatment. Despite some overlap in correlates of risk assessment and subsequent reports, analyses indicated that agreement between caseworkers' assessments of risk and re-reports was low. Findings suggest that although caseworkers' assessments were associated with a limited set of risk factors from the literature, few of these factors also were associated with a recurrent report of maltreatment. Correspondence between caseworkers' assessments of risk and a subsequent report of maltreatment was low, suggesting that considerable work may be needed to improve accuracy and identification of cases most at risk. This study provides information to assist caseworkers, administrators, and policymakers in thinking critically about risk assessment policies and procedures. Although caseworkers' assessments of

Risk Assessment in the UK Health and Safety System: Theory and Practice.

PubMed

Russ, Karen

2010-09-01

In the UK, a person or organisation that creates risk is required to manage and control that risk so that it is reduced 'So Far As Is Reasonably Practicable' (SFAIRP). How the risk is managed is to be determined by those who create the risk. They have a duty to demonstrate that they have taken action to ensure all risk is reduced SFAIRP and must have documentary evidence, for example a risk assessment or safety case, to prove that they manage the risks their activities create. The UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE) does not tell organisations how to manage the risks they create but does inspect the quality of risk identification and management. This paper gives a brief overview of where responsibility for occupational health and safety lies in the UK, and how risk should be managed through risk assessment. The focus of the paper is three recent major UK incidents, all involving fatalities, and all of which were wholly avoidable if risks had been properly assessed and managed. The paper concludes with an analysis of the common failings of risk assessments and key actions for improvement.

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study-Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E; Ankley, Gerald T; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y; Burgoon, Lyle D; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B; Edwards, Stephen W; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T; Thayer, Kristina A; Thomas, Russell S; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R; Vandenberg, John J; Villeneuve, Daniel L; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S

2016-11-01

The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure-response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I, Andersen ME, Ankley GT, Barone S, Birnbaum LS, Boekelheide K

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Promoting patient safety through prospective risk identification: example from peri-operative care.

PubMed

Smith, A; Boult, M; Woods, I; Johnson, S

2010-02-01

Investigation of patient safety incidents has focused on retrospective analyses once incidents have occurred. Prospective risk analysis techniques complement this but have not been widely used in healthcare. Prospective risk identification of non-operative risks associated with adult elective surgery under general anaesthesia using a customised structured "what if" checklist and development of risk matrix. Prioritisation of recommendations arising by cost, ease and likely speed of implementation. Groups totalling 20 clinical and administrative healthcare staff involved in peri-operative care and risk experts convened by the UK National Patient Safety Agency. 102 risks were identified and 95 recommendations made. The top 20 recommendations together were judged to encompass about 75% of the total estimated risk attributable to the processes considered. Staffing and organisational issues (21% of total estimated risk) included recommendations for removing distractions from the operating theatre, ensuring the availability of senior anaesthetists and promoting standards and flexible working among theatre staff. Devices and equipment (19% of total estimated risk) could be improved by training and standardisation; airway control and temperature monitoring were identified as two specific areas. Pre-assessment of patients before admission to hospital (12% of estimated risk) could be improved by defining a data set for adequate pre-assessment and making this available throughout the NHS. This technique can be successfully applied by healthcare staff but expert facilitation of groups is advisable. Such wider-ranging processes can potentially lead to more comprehensive risk reduction than "single-issue" risk alerts.

Consensus Recommendations for Advancing Breast Cancer: Risk Identification and Screening in Ethnically Diverse Younger Women

PubMed Central

Stojadinovic, Alexander; Summers, Thomas A; Eberhardt, John; Cerussi, Albert; Grundfest, Warren; Peterson, Charles M.; Brazaitis, Michael; Krupinski, Elizabeth; Freeman, Harold

2011-01-01

A need exists for a breast cancer risk identification paradigm that utilizes relevant demographic, clinical, and other readily obtainable patient-specific data in order to provide individualized cancer risk assessment, direct screening efforts, and detect breast cancer at an early disease stage in historically underserved populations, such as younger women (under age 40) and minority populations, who represent a disproportionate number of military beneficiaries. Recognizing this unique need for military beneficiaries, a consensus panel was convened by the USA TATRC to review available evidence for individualized breast cancer risk assessment and screening in young (< 40), ethnically diverse women with an overall goal of improving care for military beneficiaries. In the process of review and discussion, it was determined to publish our findings as the panel believes that our recommendations have the potential to reduce health disparities in risk assessment, health promotion, disease prevention, and early cancer detection within and in other underserved populations outside of the military. This paper aims to provide clinicians with an overview of the clinical factors, evidence and recommendations that are being used to advance risk assessment and screening for breast cancer in the military. PMID:21509152

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Natural and Processed Cheeses

PubMed Central

Lee, Heeyoung; Lee, Soomin; Kim, Sejeong; Lee, Jeeyeon; Ha, Jimyeong; Yoon, Yohan

2016-01-01

This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens) foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11) was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g) and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g) were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309)×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8) to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness

Risk assessment in infrastructure in educational institution: A study in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasdan Ismail, Ahmad; Adilah Hamzah, Noor; Kamilah Makhtar, Nor; Azhar Mat Daud, Khairul; Zulkarnaen Khidzir, Nik; Husna Che Hassan, Nurul; Arifpin Mansor, Muhamad

2017-10-01

This particular study was conducted to assess the hazard exposure in education institution and to highlight the possible risk level available. The assessment utilised is Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC). There was a 2008’s form in order to determine the risk level of the hazard. There were over 111 of education institutions were selected around Malaysia to perform this assessment. Area chosen for each institution was office, playing field, canteen, classroom, toilet and drainage. By referring HIRARC Guideline 2008, the determination of risk rank is measure based on the formula likelihood multiply severity and the rank need to refer from risk matrix standard. There are several hazard have be found and shows the high, medium and low of risk level. The higher level of risk was discussed in the study which is hazard found in playing field and hazard in office. There several hazard that need to be control by education management to avoid increase of case accident in Education Sector, Malaysia. As conclusion, the exposure hazard among the staff and educators is high and further action and control are needed. Further study need to explore the best recommendation for control measure of the hazard exposed by education institution.

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-01-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Ship collision risk assessment for the Singapore Strait.

PubMed

Qu, Xiaobo; Meng, Qiang; Suyi, Li

2011-11-01

The Singapore Strait is considered as the bottleneck and chokepoint of the shipping routes connecting the Indian and the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the ship collision risk assessment is of significant importance for ships passing through the narrow, shallow, and busy waterway. In this paper, three ship collision risk indices are initially proposed to quantitatively assess the ship collision risks in the Strait: index of speed dispersion, degree of acceleration and deceleration, and number of fuzzy ship domain overlaps. These three risk indices for the Singapore Strait are estimated by using the real-time ship locations and sailing speeds provide by Lloyd's MIU automatic identification system (AIS). Based on estimation of these three risk indices, it can be concluded that Legs 4W, 5W, 11E, and 12E are the most risky legs in the Strait. Therefore, the ship collision risk reduction solutions should be prioritized being implemented in these four legs. This study also finds that around 25% of the vessels sail with a speed in excess of the speed limit, which results in higher potentials of ship collision. Analysis indicates that the safety level would be significantly improved if all the vessels follow the passage guidelines. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

'She'll Be Right.' Or Will She? Practitioner Perspectives on Risk Assessment for Led Outdoor Activities in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dallat, Clare; Goode, Natassia; Salmon, Paul M.

2018-01-01

Inadequate risk assessment has been implicated as a contributory factor in the deaths and injuries of participants on led outdoor activity (LOA) programmes in both Australia and overseas. The identification and assessment of risks is a required component of LOA programmes, and multiple risk assessment methods and techniques are available to the…

Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

PubMed

Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

2017-05-01

Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital

Health Risk Assessment on Hazardous Ingredients in Household Deodorizing Products

PubMed Central

Lee, Minjin; Kim, Joo-Hyon; Lee, Daeyeop; Kim, Jaewoo; Lim, Hyunwoo; Seo, Jungkwan; Park, Young-Kwon

2018-01-01

The inhalation of a water aerosol from a humidifier containing disinfectants has led to serious lung injuries in Korea. To promote the safe use of products, the Korean government enacted regulations on the chemicals in various consumer products that could have adverse health effects. Given the concern over the potential health risks associated with the hazardous ingredients in deodorizing consumer products, 17 ingredients were analyzed and assessed according to their health risk on 3 groups by the application type in 47 deodorizing products. The risk assessment study followed a stepwise procedure (e.g., collecting toxicological information, hazard identification/exposure assessment, and screening and detailed assessment for inhalation and dermal routes). The worst-case scenario and maximum concentration determined by the product purpose and application type were used as the screening assessment. In a detailed assessment, the 75th exposure factor values were used to estimate the assumed reasonable exposure to ingredients. The exposed concentrations of seven ingredients were calculated. Due to limitation of toxicity information, butylated hydroxyl toluene for a consumer’s exposure via the dermal route only was conducted for a detailed assessment. This study showed that the assessed ingredients have no health risks at their maximum concentrations in deodorizing products. This approach can be used to establish guidelines for ingredients that may pose inhalation and dermal hazards. PMID:29652814

The Impact of Early Design Phase Risk Identification Biases on Space System Project Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, John D., Jr.; Eveleigh, Tim; Holzer, Thomas; Sarkani, Shahryar

2012-01-01

Risk identification during the early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to result in the identification of events and circumstances that truly challenge project performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimation are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. A deeper understanding of frequent risk identification trends and biases pervasive during space system design and development is needed, for it would lead to improved execution of existing identification processes and methods.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

Survey of mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, risk assessment tools and positive risk.

PubMed

Downes, C; Gill, A; Doyle, L; Morrissey, J; Higgins, A

2016-04-01

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Risk assessment and safety planning are a core aspect of the role of the mental health nurse. Conflicting views exist on the value of risk assessment tools. Few studies have examined mental health nurses' attitudes towards risk, including use of tools and the role of positive risk in recovery. WHAT THE PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: Mental health nurses view risk assessment as a core dimension of their role and not merely an exercise to fulfil organizational clinical safety and governance obligations. The majority of nurses hold positive attitudes towards therapeutic or positive risk, and consider creative risk taking as vital to people's recovery. The majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional decision making, however, some are concerned that tools may negatively impact upon therapeutic relationships. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Ongoing education on the use of risk assessment tools is required to minimize views that their use is incompatible with therapeutic engagement, and to enable nurses to develop confidence to engage with positive risk and to allow service users make decisions and take responsibility. Introduction Risk assessment and safety planning are considered core components of the role of the mental health nurse; however, little is known about nurses' attitudes towards risk assessment, use of tools to assess risk or therapeutic risk taking. Aim This study aimed to explore mental health nurses' attitudes towards completing risk assessments, use of tools as an aid, and therapeutic or positive risk. Method An anonymous survey which included 13 attitudinal statements, rated on a five-point Likert scale, was completed by 381 mental health nurses working in adult services in Ireland. Findings Findings indicate strong support for the practice of risk assessment in mental health practice. The vast majority of nurses believe that risk assessment tools facilitate professional

Multi-hazards risk assessment at different levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2012-04-01

Natural and technological disasters are becoming more frequent and devastating. Social and economic losses due to those events increase annually, which is definitely in relation with evolution of society. Natural hazards identification and analysis, as well natural risk assessment taking into account secondary technological accidents are the first steps in prevention strategy aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future events. The paper addresses methodological issues of natural and technological integrated risk assessment and mapping at different levels [1, 2]. At the country level the most hazardous natural processes, which may results in fatalities, injuries and economic loss in the Russian Federation, are considered. They are earthquakes, landslides, mud flows, floods, storms, avalanches. The special GIS environment for the country territory was developed which includes information about hazards' level and reoccurrence, an impact databases for the last 20 years, as well as models for estimating damage and casualties caused by these hazards. Federal maps of seismic individual and collective risk, as well as multi-hazards natural risk maps are presented. The examples of regional seismic risk assessment taking into account secondary accidents at fire, explosion and chemical hazardous facilities and regional integrated risk assessment are given for the earthquake prone areas of the Russian Federation. The paper also gives examples of loss computations due to scenario earthquakes taking into account accidents trigged by strong events at critical facilities: fire and chemical hazardous facilities, including oil pipe lines routes located in the earthquake prone areas. The estimations of individual seismic risk obtained are used by EMERCOM of the Russian Federation, as well as by other federal and local authorities, for planning and implementing preventive measures, aimed at saving lives and protecting property against future disastrous events. The

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions

What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

PubMed Central

Rajan, S. Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K.

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

PubMed

Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

2012-01-01

The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large.

The role of objective personality inventories in suicide risk assessment: an evaluation and proposal.

PubMed

Johnson, W B; Lall, R; Bongar, B; Nordlund, M D

1999-01-01

Objective personality assessment instruments offer a comparatively underutilized source of clinical data in attempts to evaluate and predict risk for suicide. In contrast to focal suicide risk measures, global personality inventories may be useful in identification of long-standing styles that predispose persons to eventual suicidal behavior. This article reviews the empirical literature regarding the efficacy of established personality inventories in predicting suicidality. The authors offer several recommendations for future research with these measures and conclude that such objective personality instruments offer only marginal utility as sources of clinical information in comprehensive suicide risk evaluations. Personality inventories may offer greatest utility in long-term assessment of suicide risk.

Operational risk assessment.

PubMed

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

PubMed

Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

2016-12-01

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing risks and preventing disease from environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Dunnette, D A

1989-01-01

In the last 25 years there has been considerable concern expressed about the extent to which chemical agents in the ambient and work environments are contributing to the causation of disease. This concern is a logical extension of our increased knowledge of the real and potential effects of environmental chemicals and the methodological difficulties in applying new knowledge that could help prevent environmentally induced disease. Chemical risk assessment offers an approach to estimating risks and involves consideration of relevant information including identification of chemical hazards, evaluation of the dose-response relationship, estimation of exposure and finally, risk characterization. Particularly significant uncertainties which are inherent in use of this and other risk models include animal-human and low dose-high dose extrapolation and estimation of exposure. Community public health risks from exposure to environmental chemicals appear to be small relative to other public health risks based on information related to cancer trends, dietary intake of synthetic chemicals, assessment data on substances such as DDT and "dioxin," public health effects of hazardous waste sites and contextual considerations. Because of inherent uncertainty in the chemical risk assessment process, however, we need to apply what methods are available in our efforts to prevent disease induced by environmental chemicals. There are a number of societal strategies which can contribute to overall reduction of risk from environmental chemicals. These include acquisition of information on environmental risk including toxicity, intensity and extensity of exposure, biological monitoring, disease surveillance, improvement in epidemiological methods, control of environmental chemical exposures, and dissemination of hazardous chemical information. Responsible environmental risk communication and information transfer appear to be among the most important of the available strategies for

Current (Food) Allergenic Risk Assessment: Is It Fit for Novel Foods? Status Quo and Identification of Gaps

PubMed Central

Mazzucchelli, Gabriel; Holzhauser, Thomas; Cirkovic Velickovic, Tanja; Diaz‐Perales, Araceli; Molina, Elena; Roncada, Paola; Rodrigues, Pedro; Verhoeckx, Kitty

2017-01-01

Abstract Food allergies are recognized as a global health concern. In order to protect allergic consumers from severe symptoms, allergenic risk assessment for well‐known foods and foods containing genetically modified ingredients is installed. However, population is steadily growing and there is a rising need to provide adequate protein‐based foods, including novel sources, not yet used for human consumption. In this context safety issues such as a potential increased allergenic risk need to be assessed before marketing novel food sources. Therefore, the established allergenic risk assessment for genetically modified organisms needs to be re‐evaluated for its applicability for risk assessment of novel food proteins. Two different scenarios of allergic sensitization have to be assessed. The first scenario is the presence of already known allergenic structures in novel foods. For this, a comparative assessment can be performed and the range of cross‐reactivity can be explored, while in the second scenario allergic reactions are observed toward so far novel allergenic structures and no reference material is available. This review summarizes the current analytical methods for allergenic risk assessment, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each method and discussing the gaps in this assessment that need to be addressed in the near future. PMID:28925060

Odor identification as a biomarker of preclinical AD in older adults at risk

PubMed Central

Poirier, Judes; Etienne, Pierre; Tremblay-Mercier, Jennifer; Frenette, Joanne; Rosa-Neto, Pedro; Breitner, John C.S.

2017-01-01

Objective: To assess odor identification (OI) as an indicator of presymptomatic Alzheimer disease (AD) pathogenesis in cognitively normal aging individuals at increased risk of AD dementia. Methods: In 274 members of the PREVENT-AD cohort of healthy aging persons with a parental or multiple-sibling history of AD dementia, we assessed the cross-sectional association of OI with potential indicators of presymptomatic AD. Some 101 participants donated CSF, thus enabling assessment of AD pathology with the biomarkers total tau (t-tau), phospho-tau (P181-tau), and their ratios with β-amyloid (Aβ1-42). Adjusted analyses considered age, cognition, APOE ε4 status, education, and sex as covariates. We measured OI using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test and cognitive performance using the Repeatable Battery for Assessment of Neuropsychological Status. Standard kits provided assays of the AD biomarkers. Analyses used robust-fit linear regression models. Results: Reduced OI was associated with lower cognitive score and older age, as well as increased ratios of CSF t-tau and P181-tau to Aβ1-42 (all p < 0.02). However, the observed associations of OI with age and cognition were unapparent in adjusted models that restricted observations to CSF donors and included AD biomarkers. OI showed little association with CSF Aβ1-42 alone except in APOE ε4 carriers having lowest-quartile Aβ1-42 levels. Conclusions: These findings from healthy high-risk older individuals suggest that OI reflects degree of preclinical AD pathology, while its relationships with age and cognition result from the association of these latter variables with such pathology. Diminished OI may be a practical and affordable biomarker of AD pathology. PMID:28659431

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Modelling characteristics to predict Legionella contamination risk - Surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems and identification of risk areas.

PubMed

Völker, Sebastian; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2016-01-01

For the surveillance of drinking water plumbing systems (DWPS) and the identification of risk factors, there is a need for an early estimation of the risk of Legionella contamination within a building, using efficient and assessable parameters to estimate hazards and to prioritize risks. The precision, accuracy and effectiveness of ways of estimating the risk of higher Legionella numbers (temperature, stagnation, pipe materials, etc.) have only rarely been empirically assessed in practice, although there is a broad consensus about the impact of these risk factors. We collected n = 807 drinking water samples from 9 buildings which had had Legionella spp. occurrences of >100 CFU/100mL within the last 12 months, and tested for Legionella spp., L. pneumophila, HPC 20°C and 36°C (culture-based). Each building was sampled for 6 months under standard operating conditions in the DWPS. We discovered high variability (up to 4 log(10) steps) in the presence of Legionella spp. (CFU/100 mL) within all buildings over a half year period as well as over the course of a day. Occurrences were significantly correlated with temperature, pipe length measures, and stagnation. Logistic regression modelling revealed three parameters (temperature after flushing until no significant changes in temperatures can be obtained, stagnation (low withdrawal, qualitatively assessed), pipe length proportion) to be the best predictors of Legionella contamination (>100 CFU/100 mL) at single outlets (precision = 66.7%; accuracy = 72.1%; F(0.5) score = 0.59). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

[Status Quo, Uncertainties and Trends Analysis of Environmental Risk Assessment for PFASs].

PubMed

Hao, Xue-wen; Li, Li; Wang, Jie; Cao, Yan; Liu, Jian-guo

2015-08-01

This study systematically combed the definition and change of terms, category and application of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in international academic, focusing on the environmental risk and exposure assessment of PFASs, to comprehensively analyze the current status, uncertainties and trends of PFASs' environmental risk assessment. Overall, the risk assessment of PFASs is facing a complicated situation involving complex substance pedigrees, various types, complex derivative relations, confidential business information and risk uncertainties. Although the environmental risk of long-chain PFASs has been widely recognized, the short-chain PFASs and short-chain fluorotelomers as their alternatives still have many research gaps and uncertainties in environmental hazards, environmental fate and exposure risk. The scope of risk control of PFASs in the international community is still worth discussing. Due to trade secrets and market competition, the chemical structure and risk information of PFASs' alternatives are generally lack of openness and transparency. The environmental risk of most fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives is not clear. In total, the international research on PFASs risk assessment gradually transfer from long-chain perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) represented by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) to short-chain PFAAs, and then extends to other PFASs. The main problems to be solved urgently and researched continuously are: the environmental hazardous assessment indexes, such as bioaccumulation and environmental migration, optimization method, the environmental release and multimedia environmental fate of short-chain PFASs; the environmental fate of neutral PFASs and the transformation and contribution as precursors of short-chain PFASs; the risk identification and assessment of fluorinated and non-fluorinated alternatives of PFASs.

Current (Food) Allergenic Risk Assessment: Is It Fit for Novel Foods? Status Quo and Identification of Gaps.

PubMed

Mazzucchelli, Gabriel; Holzhauser, Thomas; Cirkovic Velickovic, Tanja; Diaz-Perales, Araceli; Molina, Elena; Roncada, Paola; Rodrigues, Pedro; Verhoeckx, Kitty; Hoffmann-Sommergruber, Karin

2018-01-01

Food allergies are recognized as a global health concern. In order to protect allergic consumers from severe symptoms, allergenic risk assessment for well-known foods and foods containing genetically modified ingredients is installed. However, population is steadily growing and there is a rising need to provide adequate protein-based foods, including novel sources, not yet used for human consumption. In this context safety issues such as a potential increased allergenic risk need to be assessed before marketing novel food sources. Therefore, the established allergenic risk assessment for genetically modified organisms needs to be re-evaluated for its applicability for risk assessment of novel food proteins. Two different scenarios of allergic sensitization have to be assessed. The first scenario is the presence of already known allergenic structures in novel foods. For this, a comparative assessment can be performed and the range of cross-reactivity can be explored, while in the second scenario allergic reactions are observed toward so far novel allergenic structures and no reference material is available. This review summarizes the current analytical methods for allergenic risk assessment, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each method and discussing the gaps in this assessment that need to be addressed in the near future. © 2017 The Authors. Published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Comparing visual and objective skin assessment with pressure injury risk.

PubMed

Borzdynski, Caroline J; McGuiness, William; Miller, Charne

2016-08-01

Contemporary approaches to pressure injury (PI) risk identification rely on the use of risk assessment tools and visual skin assessment. Objective biophysical measures that assess skin hydration, melanin, erythema and lipids have not been traditionally used in PI risk; however, these may prove useful as a risk assessment tool. The relationship between subjective visual assessments of skin condition, biophysical measures and PI risk warrants investigation. This study used a descriptive correlational design to examine the relationship between measures of skin hydration, colour (melanin and erythema) and lipids at PI-prone areas amongst geriatric persons (n = 38), obtained using biophysical skin measures and visual skin assessment. Twice daily measures of epidermal hydration, colour and lipids were assessed using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic (Courage + Khazaka GmBH, Cologne, Germany) over pressure-prone areas of the body of study participants over seven consecutive days. Concurrent visual assessment of skin hydration and colour was performed. Results obtained using the SD202 Skin Diagnostic were compared with results gathered from visual assessment and examined for their association with participants' PI risk based on scores of the Norton Risk Assessment Scale. While epidermal hydration and skin colour reading scores did not vary significantly over the data collection period, lipid readings could not be registered on any occasion. With the exception of skin dryness, skin parameters via both objective and subjective means had significant, positive correlations. Statistically significant correlations emerged between visual assessment of skin wetness at the sacrum (r = -0·441, P < 0·01) and ischia (r = -0·468, P < 0·01) and Norton Risk Assessment Scale scores. It was found that the objective assessment of epidermal hydration (skin wetness) was also significantly associated with PI risk at the sacrum (r = -0·528, P < 0·01), as well as the right ischia (r = -0·410, P

GM Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Identification of novel uncertainty factors and thresholds of toxicological concern for health hazard and risk assessment: Application to cleaning product ingredients.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Scott, W Casan; Williams, E Spencer; Ciarlo, Michael; DeLeo, Paul C; Brooks, Bryan W

2018-04-01

and other chemical classes. Findings can also support chemical substitutions during alternatives assessment, and data dossier development (e.g., read across), identification of TTCs, and screening-level hazard and risk assessment when toxicity data is unavailable for specific chemicals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular identification of Ancylostoma species from dogs and an assessment of zoonotic risk in low-income households, São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Oliveira-Arbex, A P; David, E B; Oliveira-Sequeira, T C G; Katagiri, S; Coradi, S T; Guimarães, S

2017-01-01

Hookworm infection stands out for its worldwide distribution and for its veterinary and public health relevance. Based on copromicroscopic examinations and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 region, we assessed, respectively, the prevalence of intestinal parasites and the identification of canine hookworm species in faeces recovered from 278 dogs living in households of an inland municipality of São Paulo State, Brazil. Intestinal parasites were found in 67.3% of dogs and hookworm infection was found at the highest prevalence rate (56.6%), followed by Toxocara canis (11.9%), Isospora spp. (11.9%), Giardia spp. (5.8%), Sarcocystis spp. (4.0%), 'Hammondia-like' (1.4%), Dipylidium caninum (1.1%) and Trichuris vulpis (0.7%). Of 158 samples positive for hookworm eggs, 106 (67.1%) were amplified by PCR and, of those, 88 (55.7%) were successfully sequenced for species identification. Single infections with Ancylostoma caninum and Ancylostoma braziliense were recorded in 61.4% and 12.5%, respectively, and mixed infections were found in 26.1%. The nucleotide sequences of both species showed high identity rates (98-100%) when compared with reference sequences. Although A. caninum was the most prevalent hookworm in the dogs assessed, the occurrence of both A. caninum and A. braziliense in single and/or mixed infections poses a potential risk for the local population in a low-income area, especially children, to acquire cutaneous larva migrans (CLM).

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule risk assessments determine the likelihood of finishing on time. Each task in a schedule has a varying degree of probability of being finished on time. A schedule risk assessment quantifies these probabilities by assigning values to each task. This viewgraph presentation contains a flow chart for conducting a schedule risk assessment, and profiles applicable several methods of data analysis.

Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

2018-03-01

The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

2018-03-01

This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

APPLICATION OF EXAMS AS THE SURFACE WATER MODULE IN THE HWIR MULTIMEDIA RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Multimedia, multipathway risk assessment software has been developed for implementing the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR). This regulation is intended to determine whether a waste should be considered hazardous, and confined to Subtitle D facilities, or safely release...

Identifying gender specific risk/need areas for male and female juvenile offenders: Factor analyses with the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY).

PubMed

Hilterman, Ed L B; Bongers, Ilja; Nicholls, Tonia L; van Nieuwenhuizen, Chijs

2016-02-01

By constructing risk assessment tools in which the individual items are organized in the same way for male and female juvenile offenders it is assumed that these items and subscales have similar relevance across males and females. The identification of criminogenic needs that vary in relevance for 1 of the genders, could contribute to more meaningful risk assessments, especially for female juvenile offenders. In this study, exploratory factor analyses (EFA) on a construction sample of male (n = 3,130) and female (n = 466) juvenile offenders were used to aggregate the 30 items of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) into empirically based risk/need factors and explore differences between genders. The factor models were cross-validated through confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) on a validation sample of male (n = 2,076) and female (n = 357) juvenile offenders. In both the construction sample and the validation sample, 5 factors were identified: (a) Antisocial behavior; (b) Family functioning; (c) Personality traits; (d) Social support; and (e) Treatability. The male and female models were significantly different and the internal consistency of the factors was good, both in the construction sample and the validation sample. Clustering risk/need items for male and female juvenile offenders into meaningful factors may guide clinicians in the identification of gender-specific treatment interventions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

Risk assessment for safety laboratories in Politeknik Negeri Medan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viyata Sundawa, Bakti; Hutajulu, Elferida; Sirait, Regina; Banurea, Waldemar; Indrayadi; Mulyadi, Sangap

2017-09-01

International Labour Organization (ILO) estimated 2.34 million people die each year because accidents and diseases in workplace. It also impact to economic losses in some countries. It need to do safety and healthy in working environment especially in laboratory. Identification of potential hazards and risks must be done in Telecommunication Laboratory Politeknik Negeri Medan. Therefore, this study was assessed 5 of potential hazards and risks in our laboratory by Likert Scale. This object was divided into 2 assessment namely likelihood of hazards and severity of consequences. Collecting data is taken from questionnaire who involved 100 students at random academic level. The result showed The highest score is chemical hazards 73.2% in likelihood of hazards and electrical hazards 85% in severity of consequences. This condition is classified as “high” state. Big attention must be given to “high” state because it can help us to determine mitigate action.

The utility of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, calcaneal quantitative ultrasound, and fracture risk indices (FRAX® and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument) for the identification of women with distal forearm or hip fractures: A pilot study.

PubMed

Esmaeilzadeh, Sina; Cesme, Fatih; Oral, Aydan; Yaliman, Ayse; Sindel, Dilsad

2016-08-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is considered the "gold standard" in predicting osteoporotic fractures. Calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS) variables are also known to predict fractures. Fracture risk assessment tools may also guide us for the detection of individuals at high risk for fractures. The aim of this case-control study was to evaluate the utility of DXA bone mineral density (BMD), calcaneal QUS parameters, FRAX® (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool), and Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI) for the discrimination of women with distal forearm or hip fractures. This case-control study included 20 women with a distal forearm fracture and 18 women with a hip fracture as cases and 76 age-matched women served as controls. BMD at the spine, proximal femur, and radius was measured using DXA and acoustic parameters of bone were obtained using a calcaneal QUS device. FRAX® 10-year probability of fracture and ORAI scores were also calculated in all participants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess fracture discriminatory power of all the tools. While all DXA BMD, and QUS variables and FRAX® fracture probabilities demonstrated significant areas under the ROC curves for the discrimination of hip-fractured women and those without, only 33% radius BMD, broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability calculated without BMD showed significant discriminatory power for distal forearm fractures. It can be concluded that QUS variables, particularly BUA, and FRAX® major osteoporotic fracture probability without BMD are good candidates for the identification of both hip and distal forearm fractures.

Professional Risk Assessment on the Workplace of Surface Surveyor Employed in Measuring-Geological Department of Coalmine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matuszewska, Ewa; Orwat, Justyna

2016-06-01

In this article were shown the identification of threats and the assessment of occupational risk for the surface surveyor by using the Five Steps method and taking into account the health state of workers.

Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

PubMed

Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

2015-01-01

Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment and Whole-Process Management System in Chemical Industry Parks

PubMed Central

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-01-01

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on. PMID:23603866

Integrated environmental risk assessment and whole-process management system in chemical industry parks.

PubMed

Shao, Chaofeng; Yang, Juan; Tian, Xiaogang; Ju, Meiting; Huang, Lei

2013-04-19

Chemical industry parks in China are considered high-risk areas because they present numerous risks that can damage the environment, such as pollution incidents. In order to identify the environmental risks and the principal risk factors in these areas, we have developed a simple physical model of a regional environmental risk field (ERF) using existing dispersal patterns and migration models. The regional ERF zoning was also conducted and a reference value for diagnostic methods was developed to determine risk-acceptable, risk-warning, and risk-mitigation zones, which can provide a risk source layout for chemical industry parks. In accordance with the environmental risk control requirements, this study focused on the three stages of control and management of environmental risk and established an environmental risk management system including risk source identification and assessment, environmental safety planning, early risk warning, emergency management, assessment of environmental effects, and environmental remediation of pollution accidents. By using this model, the environmental risks in Tianjin Binhai New Area, the largest chemical industry park in China, were assessed and the environmental risk zoning map was drawn, which suggested the existence of many unacceptable environmental risks in this area. Thus, relevant suggestions have been proposed from the perspective of the adjustment of risk source layout, intensified management of environmental risk control and so on.

ASSESSING THE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH MERCURY: USING REVA'S WEBTOOL TO COMPARE DATA, ASSUMPTIONS, AND MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The problem of assessing risk from mercury across the nation is extremely complex involving integration of I) our understanding of the methylation process in ecosystems, 2) the identification and spatial distribution of sensitive populations, and 3) the spatial pattern of mercury...

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Risk assessment in the management of newly diagnosed classical Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Connors, Joseph M

2015-03-12

Treatment of Hodgkin lymphoma is associated with 2 major types of risk: that the treatment may fail to cure the disease or that the treatment will prove unacceptably toxic. Careful assessment of the amount of the lymphoma (tumor burden), its behavior (extent of invasion or specific organ compromise), and host related factors (age; coincident systemic infection; and organ dysfunction, especially hematopoietic, cardiac, or pulmonary) is essential to optimize outcome. Elaborately assembled prognostic scoring systems, such as the International Prognostic Factors Project score, have lost their accuracy and value as increasingly effective chemotherapy and supportive care have been developed. Identification of specific biomarkers derived from sophisticated exploration of Hodgkin lymphoma biology is bringing promise of further improvement in targeted therapy in which effectiveness is increased at the same time off-target toxicity is diminished. Parallel developments in functional imaging are providing additional potential to evaluate the efficacy of treatment while it is being delivered, allowing dynamic assessment of risk during chemotherapy and adaptation of the therapy in real time. Risk assessment in Hodgkin lymphoma is continuously evolving, promising ever greater precision and clinical relevance. This article explores the past usefulness and the emerging potential of risk assessment for this imminently curable malignancy. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

CADDIS Volume 1. Stressor Identification: About Causal Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

An introduction to the history of our approach to causal assessment, A chronology of causal history and philosophy, An introduction to causal history and philosophy, References for the Causal Assessment Background section of Stressor Identification

Spatial characterization, risk assessment, and statistical source identification of the dissolved trace elements in the Ganjiang River-feeding tributary of the Poyang Lake, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Hua; Jiang, Yinghui; Wang, Min; Wang, Peng; Shi, Guangxun; Ding, Mingjun

2017-01-01

Surface water samples were collected from 20 sampling sites throughout the Ganjiang River during pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons, and the concentrations of dissolved trace elements were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) for the spatial and seasonal variations, risk assessment, source identification, and categorization for risk area. The result demonstrated that concentrations of the elements exhibited significant seasonality. The high total element concentrations were detected at sites close to the intensive mining and urban activities. The concentrations of the elements were under the permissible limits as prescribed by related standards with a few exceptions. The most of heavy metal pollution index (HPI) values were lower than the critical index limit, indicating the basically clean water used as habitat for aquatic life. As was identified as the priority pollutant of non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic concerns, and the inhabitants ingesting the surface water at particular site might be subjected to the integrated health risks for exposure to the mixed trace elements. Multivariate statistical analyses confirmed that Zn, As, Cd, and Tl were derived from mining and urban activities; V, Cd, and Pb exhibited mixed origin; and Co, Ni, and Cu mainly resulted from natural processes. Three categorized risk areas corresponded to high, moderate, and low risks, respectively. As a whole, the upstream of the Ganjiang River was identified as the high-risk area relatively.

Validation of Fall Risk Assessment Specific to the Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility Setting.

PubMed

Thomas, Dan; Pavic, Andrea; Bisaccia, Erin; Grotts, Jonathan

2016-09-01

To evaluate and compare the Morse Fall Scale (MFS) and the Casa Colina Fall Risk Assessment Scale (CCFRA) for identification of patients at risk for falling in an acute inpatient rehabilitation facility. The primary objective of this study was to perform a retrospective validation study of the CCFRAS, specifically for use in the inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) setting. Retrospective validation study. The study was approved under expedited review by the local Institutional Review Board. Data were collected on all patients admitted to Cottage Rehabiliation Hospital (CRH), a 38-bed acute inpatient rehabilitation hospital, from March 2012 to August 2013. Patients were excluded from the study if they had a length of stay less than 3 days or age less than 18. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the diagnostic odds ratio were used to examine the differences between the MFS and CCFRAS. AUC between fall scales was compared using the DeLong Test. There were 931 patients included in the study with 62 (6.7%) patient falls. The average age of the population was 68.8 with 503 males (51.2%). The AUC was 0.595 and 0.713 for the MFS and CCFRAS, respectively (0.006). The diagnostic odds ratio of the MFS was 2.0 and 3.6 for the CCFRAS using the recommended cutoffs of 45 for the MFS and 80 for the CCFRAS. The CCFRAS appears to be a better tool in detecting fallers vs. nonfallers specific to the IRF setting. The assessment and identification of patients at high risk for falling is important to implement specific precautions and care for these patients to reduce their risk of falling. The CCFRAS is more clinically relevant in identifying patients at high risk for falling in the IRF setting compared to other fall risk assessments. Implementation of this scale may lead to a reduction in fall rate and injuries from falls as it more appropriately identifies patients at high risk for falling. © 2015 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-10-01

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground. Annual report, 1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

1993-03-01

A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principalmore » components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport.« less

Identification of cancer risk and associated behaviour: implications for social marketing campaigns for cancer prevention.

PubMed

Kippen, Rebecca; James, Erica; Ward, Bernadette; Buykx, Penny; Shamsullah, Ardel; Watson, Wendy; Chapman, Kathy

2017-08-17

Community misconception of what causes cancer is an important consideration when devising communication strategies around cancer prevention, while those initiating social marketing campaigns must decide whether to target the general population or to tailor messages for different audiences. This paper investigates the relationships between demographic characteristics, identification of selected cancer risk factors, and associated protective behaviours, to inform audience segmentation for cancer prevention social marketing. Data for this cross-sectional study (n = 3301) are derived from Cancer Council New South Wales' 2013 Cancer Prevention Survey. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between respondent demographic characteristics and identification of each of seven cancer risk factors; demographic characteristics and practice of the seven 'protective' behaviours associated with the seven cancer risk factors; and identification of cancer risk factors and practising the associated protective behaviours, controlling for demographic characteristics. More than 90% of respondents across demographic groups identified sun exposure and smoking cigarettes as moderate or large cancer risk factors. Around 80% identified passive smoking as a moderate/large risk factor, and 40-60% identified being overweight or obese, drinking alcohol, not eating enough vegetables and not eating enough fruit. Women and older respondents were more likely to identify most cancer risk factors as moderate/large, and to practise associated protective behaviours. Education was correlated with identification of smoking as a moderate/large cancer risk factor, and with four of the seven protective behaviours. Location (metropolitan/regional) and country of birth (Australia/other) were weak predictors of identification and of protective behaviours. Identification of a cancer risk factor as moderate/large was a significant predictor for five out

Identification and assessment of COPD exacerbations.

PubMed

Oliveira, A S; Munhá, J; Bugalho, A; Guimarães, M; Reis, G; Marques, A

2017-12-24

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbations play a central role in the disease natural history of the disease, affecting its overall severity, decreasing pulmonary function, worsening underlying co-morbidities, impairing quality of life (QoL) and leading to severe morbidity and mortality. Therefore, identification and correct assessment of COPD exacerbations is paramount, given it will strongly influence therapy success. For the identification of exacerbations, several questionnaires exist, with varying degrees of complexity. However, most questionnaires remain of limited clinical utility, and symptom scales seem to be more useful in clinical practice. In the assessment of exacerbations, the type and degree of severity should be ascertained in order to define the management setting and optimize treatment options. Still, a consensual and universal classification system to assess the severity and type of an exacerbation is lacking, and there are no established criteria for less severely ill patients not requiring hospital assessment. This might lead to under-reporting of minor to moderate exacerbations, which has an impact on patients' health status. There is a clear unmet need to develop clinically useful questionnaires and a comprehensive system to evaluate the severity of exacerbations that can be used in all settings, from primary health care to general hospitals. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.

PubMed

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2016-01-01

The past several years have seen a surge of interest in using risk assessment in criminal sentencing, both to reduce recidivism by incapacitating or treating high-risk offenders and to reduce prison populations by diverting low-risk offenders from prison. We begin by sketching jurisprudential theories of sentencing, distinguishing those that rely on risk assessment from those that preclude it. We then characterize and illustrate the varying roles that risk assessment may play in the sentencing process. We clarify questions regarding the various meanings of "risk" in sentencing and the appropriate time to assess the risk of convicted offenders. We conclude by addressing four principal problems confronting risk assessment in sentencing: conflating risk and blame, barring individual inferences based on group data, failing adequately to distinguish risk assessment from risk reduction, and ignoring whether, and if so, how, the use of risk assessment in sentencing affects racial and economic disparities in imprisonment.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it tomore » be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.« less

Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2004-01-01

In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Practice considerations in providing cancer risk assessment and genetic testing in women's health.

PubMed

Mahon, Suzanne M; Crecelius, Mary E

2013-01-01

Providers of women's health services are often confronted with questions about cancer genetic testing. The provision of these services is complex. The process begins with accurate risk assessment and identification of individuals who might benefit from genetic testing services. There are practice, administrative, legal, and ethical considerations that should be considered when developing policies for the referral of at-risk individuals or before deciding to provide genetic services. © 2013 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

Performance Assessment of the CapitalBio Mycobacterium Identification Array System for Identification of Mycobacteria

PubMed Central

Liu, Jingbo; Yan, Zihe; Han, Min; Han, Zhijun; Jin, Lingjie; Zhao, Yanlin

2012-01-01

The CapitalBio Mycobacterium identification microarray system is a rapid system for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The performance of this system was assessed with 24 reference strains, 486 Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates, and 40 clinical samples and then compared to the “gold standard” of DNA sequencing. The CapitalBio Mycobacterium identification microarray system showed highly concordant identification results of 100% and 98.4% for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) and nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the CapitalBio Mycobacterium identification array for identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were 99.6% and 100%, respectively, for direct detection and identification of clinical samples, and the overall sensitivity was 52.5%. It was 100% for sputum, 16.7% for pleural fluid, and 10% for bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, respectively. The total assay was completed in 6 h, including DNA extraction, PCR, and hybridization. The results of this study confirm the utility of this system for the rapid identification of mycobacteria and suggest that the CapitalBio Mycobacterium identification array is a molecular diagnostic technique with high sensitivity and specificity that has the capacity to quickly identify most mycobacteria. PMID:22090408

A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

PubMed

Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

2017-02-01

The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

Novel Transformations of Trenbolone Acetate Metabolites Suggest Incomplete Environmental Risk Assessment for Trenbolone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolodziej, E. P.; Jones, G.; Cwiertny, D. M.; Qu, S.

2013-12-01

account for these possibilities. The implications of this data suggest that improved environmental risk assessment should include a more complete characterization of transformation products and identification of possible non-target receptor interactions as part of exposure assessment process.

[Identification and assessment of suicidality].

PubMed

Prinz, Susanne; Egger, Stephan T

2014-10-29

Suicidality is a frequently observed but unfortunately frequently overlooked phenomenon. Every year over 1000 persons in Switzerland commit suicide; the number of attempted suicides is much higher. If suicidality is recognized promptly, appropriately assessed and adequate therapy initiated, suicides can be prevented. The assessment of suicidality can be facilitated by knowledge of the most important risk groups and factors, but also of protective factors. Various instruments are available which provide an overview of the influential factors, whereby some risk factors, e.g. access to suicidal methods or concrete suicide plans, involve a greater suicide risk than others. Such instruments, however, can never replace the overall assessment of a clinician which ought to arise from a dialogue characterized by empathy and transparency.

Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology.

PubMed

Barlow, S M; Greig, J B; Bridges, J W; Carere, A; Carpy, A J M; Galli, C L; Kleiner, J; Knudsen, I; Koëter, H B W M; Levy, L S; Madsen, C; Mayer, S; Narbonne, J-F; Pfannkuch, F; Prodanchuk, M G; Smith, M R; Steinberg, P

2002-01-01

This paper is one of several prepared under the project "Food Safety In Europe: Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Food and Diet" (FOSIE), a European Commission Concerted Action Programme, organised by the International Life Sciences Institute, Europe (ILSI). The aim of the FOSIE project is to review the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is, hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard identification of chemicals in food and diet is discussed. The importance of first applying existing technical and chemical knowledge to the design of safety testing programs for food chemicals is emphasised. There is consideration of the presently available and commonly used toxicity testing approaches and methodologies, including acute and repeated dose toxicity, reproductive and developmental toxicity, neurotoxicity, genotoxicity, carcinogenicity, immunotoxicity and food allergy. They are considered from the perspective of whether they are appropriate for assessing food chemicals and whether they are adequate to detect currently known or anticipated hazards from food. Gaps in knowledge and future research needs are identified; research on these could lead to improvements in the methods of hazard identification for food chemicals. The potential impact of some emerging techniques and toxicological issues on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled, is also considered.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

Chemical Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

Health risk assessment procedures for endocrine disrupting compounds within different regulatory frameworks in the European Union.

PubMed

Beronius, Anna; Rudén, Christina; Hanberg, Annika; Håkansson, Helen

2009-11-01

In this study we have investigated how different regulatory frameworks in Europe cope with identification and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs). Four regulatory groups were selected for the investigation: existing industrial chemicals, environmental pollutants in food, pharmaceuticals and plant protection products. The legislation and guidelines for each of these groups were scrutinized and compared in detail. In addition, one recent European risk assessment document each for three identified EDCs, i.e. bisphenol A, dioxins and vinclozolin, were reviewed and compared. We found that the requirements for toxicity testing and availability and scope of risk assessment guidelines varied between the four regulatory frameworks. Also, the general principles regarding the human relevance of the mode of action identified in animal tests differed in the different risk assessments. In conclusion, there is little conformity in the risk assessment processes between these groups of chemicals. Because of the complicated nature of endocrine disruption, test methods, principles and criteria for data interpretation traditionally used might not be directly applicable to EDCs and further development of a transparent and reliable risk assessment process for this type of substances is needed.

Landslide risk assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

1983-01-01

Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer sufficient. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS reports: “Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century”, “Exposure Science in the 21st Century”, and most recently, “Using 21st Century Science to Improve Risk-Related Evaluations.” The presentation highlights many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action concept into the chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing the exposome is presented, as is the systems-based AEP that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework

Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

2017-08-01

Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cardiovascular risk assessment of dyslipidemic children: analysis of biomarkers to identify monogenic dyslipidemia[S

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Ana Margarida; Alves, Ana Catarina; Aguiar, Pedro; Bourbon, Mafalda

2014-01-01

The distinction between a monogenic dyslipidemia and a polygenic/environmental dyslipidemia is important for the cardiovascular risk assessment, counseling, and treatment of these patients. The present work aims to perform the cardiovascular risk assessment of dyslipidemic children to identify useful biomarkers for clinical criteria improvement in clinical settings. Main cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed in a cohort of 237 unrelated children with clinical diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). About 40% carried at least two cardiovascular risk factors and 37.6% had FH, presenting mutations in LDLR and APOB. FH children showed significant elevated atherogenic markers and lower concentration of antiatherogenic particles. Children without a molecular diagnosis of FH had higher levels of TGs, apoC2, apoC3, and higher frequency of BMI and overweight/obesity, suggesting that environmental factors can be the underlying cause of their hypercholesterolem≥ia. An apoB/apoA1 ratio ≥0.68 was identified as the best biomarker (area under the curve = 0.835) to differentiate FH from other dyslipidemias. The inclusion in clinical criteria of a higher cut-off point for LDL cholesterol or an apoB/apoA1 ratio ≥0.68 optimized the criteria sensitivity and specificity. The correct identification, at an early age, of all children at-risk is of great importance so that specific interventions can be implemented. apoB/apoA1 can improve the identification of FH patients. PMID:24627126

Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List

PubMed Central

Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gärdenfors, Ulf; Keith, David A.; Punt, André E.; Regan, Helen M.; Böhm, Monika; Hedges, Simon; Seddon, Mary; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steven P.; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2016-01-01

The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species. PMID:27072401

[Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: preliminary results].

PubMed

Palmieri, Luigi; Rielli, Rita; Demattè, Luca; Donfrancesco, Chiara; La Terza, Giampaolo; De Sanctis Caiola, Patrizia; Dima, Francesco; Lo Noce, Cinzia; Giannelli, Anna Maria; Brignoli, Ovidio; Cuffari, Alfredo; De Rosa, Marisa; Addis, Antonio; Laurendi, Giovanna; Giampaoli, Simona

2010-02-01

The Italian National Prevention plan includes 10-year cardiovascular risk (CR) assessment of the Italian general population aged 35-69 years using the CUORE Project risk score. A national training program for general practitioners (GPs) was launched by the Ministry of Health in 2003. GPs were encouraged to collect data on risk factors and risk assessment and to contribute to the CUORE Project Cardiovascular Risk Observatory (CRO). The aim of this analysis is to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of risk assessment in primary care. The cuore.exe software, free of charge for GPs and easily downloadable from the CUORE Project web site (www.cuore.iss.it), is the frame for the GP data collection. The CRO provides a platform to analyze data collected on risk assessment and risk factors, and compare results at regional and national level in order to support health policy makers in their decision process. From January 2007 to April 2009, 2858 GPs have downloaded the cuore.exe software; 102,113 risk assessments were sent to the CRO based on risk factors profile of 87,556 persons (3617 persons had more than 1 risk assessment). Mean level of CR was 3.1% in women and 8.4% in men; 30% of men and 65% of women were at low risk (CR < 3%), 9% of men and 0.4% of women were found at high risk (CR > or = 20%). Among those with at least 2 risk assessments, 8% shifted to a lower class of risk after 1 year. Mean level of systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by about 1% in 1 year; total cholesterol more than 2%, and prevalence of smokers decreased by about 3% in the second risk assessment. These data demonstrate that risk assessment can be included as a first step of prevention in primary care. The CUORE Project individual score is expected to become an important tool for GPs to assess their patients' CR, to promote primary prevention, and to focus attention to healthy lifestyle adoption.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENTS - RESIDUAL RISK ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This source category previously subjected to a technology-based standard will be examined to determine if health or ecological risks are significant enough to warrant further regulation for Coke Ovens. These assesments utilize existing models and data bases to examine the multi-media and multi-pollutant impacts of air toxics emissions on human health and the environment. Details on the assessment process and methodologies can be found in EPA's Residual Risk Report to Congress issued in March of 1999 (see web site). To assess the health risks imposed by air toxics emissions from Coke Ovens to determine if control technology standards previously established are adequately protecting public health.

Screening for Behavioral Risk: Identification of High Risk Cut Scores within the Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Taylor, Crystal N.; von der Embse, Nathaniel P.

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to support the identification of Social, Academic, and Emotional Behavior Risk Screener (SAEBRS) cut scores that could be used to detect high-risk students. Teachers rated students across two time points (Time 1 n = 1,242 students; Time 2 n = 704) using the SAEBRS and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System…

Risk assessment, genetic counseling, and clinical care for hereditary breast cancer.

PubMed

Powers, Jacquelyn; Stopfer, Jill Elise

2014-01-01

During the last 30 years, key advances in the field of cancer genetics have improved identification of high-risk families in which cancer risk can be linked to mutations in cancer susceptible genes. Identification of individuals with heritable cancer risk may influence short- and long-term medical management issues. Heightened screening and risk reducing options can offer lifesaving interventions for the woman and family members who are at risk. © 2014 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

2006-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

Early Identification of Patients at Risk of Acute Lung Injury

PubMed Central

Gajic, Ognjen; Dabbagh, Ousama; Park, Pauline K.; Adesanya, Adebola; Chang, Steven Y.; Hou, Peter; Anderson, Harry; Hoth, J. Jason; Mikkelsen, Mark E.; Gentile, Nina T.; Gong, Michelle N.; Talmor, Daniel; Bajwa, Ednan; Watkins, Timothy R.; Festic, Emir; Yilmaz, Murat; Iscimen, Remzi; Kaufman, David A.; Esper, Annette M.; Sadikot, Ruxana; Douglas, Ivor; Sevransky, Jonathan

2011-01-01

Rationale: Accurate, early identification of patients at risk for developing acute lung injury (ALI) provides the opportunity to test and implement secondary prevention strategies. Objectives: To determine the frequency and outcome of ALI development in patients at risk and validate a lung injury prediction score (LIPS). Methods: In this prospective multicenter observational cohort study, predisposing conditions and risk modifiers predictive of ALI development were identified from routine clinical data available during initial evaluation. The discrimination of the model was assessed with area under receiver operating curve (AUC). The risk of death from ALI was determined after adjustment for severity of illness and predisposing conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Twenty-two hospitals enrolled 5,584 patients at risk. ALI developed a median of 2 (interquartile range 1–4) days after initial evaluation in 377 (6.8%; 148 ALI-only, 229 adult respiratory distress syndrome) patients. The frequency of ALI varied according to predisposing conditions (from 3% in pancreatitis to 26% after smoke inhalation). LIPS discriminated patients who developed ALI from those who did not with an AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.82). When adjusted for severity of illness and predisposing conditions, development of ALI increased the risk of in-hospital death (odds ratio, 4.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.9–5.7). Conclusions: ALI occurrence varies according to predisposing conditions and carries an independently poor prognosis. Using routinely available clinical data, LIPS identifies patients at high risk for ALI early in the course of their illness. This model will alert clinicians about the risk of ALI and facilitate testing and implementation of ALI prevention strategies. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00889772). PMID:20802164

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2018-01-01

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context—a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or “beacon”) is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards. While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual’s whole genome sequence), the individual’s membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual’s genome. In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. PMID:28339683

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norcross, Jason; Steinberg, Susan; Kundrot, Craig; Charles, John

2011-01-01

The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

Identification and assessment of hazardous compounds in drinking water.

PubMed

Fawell, J K; Fielding, M

1985-12-01

The identification of organic chemicals in drinking water and their assessment in terms of potential hazardous effects are two very different but closely associated tasks. In relation to both continuous low-level background contamination and specific, often high-level, contamination due to pollution incidents, the identification of contaminants is a pre-requisite to evaluation of significant hazards. Even in the case of the rapidly developing short-term bio-assays which are applied to water to indicate a potential genotoxic hazard (for example Ames tests), identification of the active chemicals is becoming a major factor in the further assessment of the response. Techniques for the identification of low concentrations of organic chemicals in drinking water have developed remarkably since the early 1970s and methods based upon gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) have revolutionised qualitative analysis of water. Such techniques are limited to "volatile" chemicals and these usually constitute a small fraction of the total organic material in water. However, in recent years there have been promising developments in techniques for "non-volatile" chemicals in water. Such techniques include combined high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) and a variety of MS methods, involving, for example, field desorption, fast atom bombardment and thermospray ionisation techniques. In the paper identification techniques in general are reviewed and likely future developments outlined. The assessment of hazards associated with chemicals identified in drinking and related waters usually centres upon toxicology - an applied science which involves numerous disciplines. The paper examines the toxicological information needed, the quality and deployment of such information and discusses future research needs. Application of short-term bio-assays to drinking water is a developing area and one which is closely involved with, and to some extent dependent on

Skin sensitization in chemical risk assessment: Report of aWHO/IPCS international workshop focusing on dose–responseassessment

EPA Science Inventory

An international workshop was held in 2006 to evaluate experimental techniques for hazard identification and hazard characterization of sensitizing agents in terms of their ability to produce data, including dose–response information, to inform risk assessment. Human testing to i...

Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment provide EPA staff with guidance for developing and using risk assessments. They also provide basic information to the public about the Agency's risk assessment methods.

APPLYING TOXICITY IDENTIFICATION PROCEDURES TO FIELD COLLECTED SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Identification of specific causes of sediment toxicity can allow for much more focused risk assessment and management decision making. We have been developing toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) methods for contaminated sediments and focusing on three toxicant groups (ammoni...

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

43 CFR 11.25 - Preassessment screen-preliminary identification of resources potentially at risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... pathways. (1) The authorized official shall make a preliminary identification of potential exposure pathways to facilitate identification of resources at risk. (2) Factors to be considered in this... toxicological properties of the oil or hazardous substance. (3) Pathways to be considered shall include, as...

Applying the Heuristic to the Risk Assessment within the Automotive Industry Supply Chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marasova, Daniela; Andrejiova, Miriam; Grincova, Anna

2017-03-01

Risk management facilitates risk identification, evaluation, control, and by means of appropriate set of measures, risk reduction or complete elimination. Therefore, the risk management becomes a strategic factor for a company's success. Properly implemented risk management system does not represent a tool to avoid the risk; it is used to understand the risk and provide the bases for strategic decision-making. Risk management represents a key factor for the supply chain operations. Managing the risks is crucial for achieving the customer satisfaction and thus also a company's success. The subject-matter of the article is the assessment of the supply chain in the automobile industry, in terms of risks. The topicality of this problem is even higher, as after the economic crisis it is necessary to revaluate the readiness of the supply chain for prospective risk conditions. One advantage of this article is the use of the Saaty method as a tool for the risk management within the supply chain.

Schistosomiasis mansoni incidence data in Rwanda can improve prevalence assessments, by providing high-resolution hotspot and risk factors identification.

PubMed

Nyandwi, E; Veldkamp, A; Amer, S; Karema, C; Umulisa, I

2017-10-25

Schistosomiasis mansoni constitutes a significant public health problem in Rwanda. The nationwide prevalence mapping conducted in 2007-2008 revealed that prevalence per district ranges from 0 to 69.5% among school children. In response, mass drug administration campaigns were initiated. However, a few years later some additional small-scale studies revealed the existence of areas of high transmission in districts formerly classified as low endemic suggesting the need for a more accurate methodology for identification of hotspots. This study investigated if confirmed cases of schistosomiasis recorded at health facility level can be used to, next to existing prevalence data, detect geographically more accurate hotspots of the disease and its associated risk factors. A GIS-based spatial and statistical analysis was carried out. Confirmed cases, recorded at primary health facilities level, were combined with demographic data to calculate incidence rates for each of 367 health facility service area. Empirical Bayesian smoothing was used to deal with rate instability. Incidence rates were compared with prevalence data to identify their level of agreement. Spatial autocorrelation of the incidence rates was analyzed using Moran's Index, to check if spatial clustering occurs. Finally, the spatial relationship between schistosomiasis distribution and potential risk factors was assessed using multiple regression. Incidence rates for 2007-2008 were highly correlated with prevalence values (R 2  = 0.79), indicating that in the case of Rwanda incidence data can be used as a proxy for prevalence data. We observed a focal distribution of schistosomiasis with a significant spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I > 0: 0,05-0.20 and p ≤ 0,05), indicating the occurrence of hotspots. Regarding risk factors, it was identified that the spatial pattern of schistosomiasis is significantly associated with wetland conditions and rice cultivation. In Rwanda the high density of health

Assessments of direct human exposure: the approach of EU risk assessments compared to scenario-based risk assessment.

PubMed

Wormuth, Matthias; Demou, Evangelia; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2007-08-01

The awareness of potential risks emerging from the use of chemicals in all parts of daily life has increased the need for risk assessments that are able to cover a high number of exposure situations and thereby ensure the safety of workers and consumers. In the European Union (EU), the practice of risk assessments for chemicals is laid down in a Technical Guidance Document; it is designed to consider environmental and human occupational and residential exposure. Almost 70 EU risk assessment reports (RARs) have been finalized for high-production-volume chemicals during the last decade. In the present study, we analyze the assessment of occupational and consumer exposure to trichloroethylene and phthalates presented in six EU RARs. Exposure scenarios in these six RARs were compared to scenarios used in applications of the scenario-based risk assessment approach to the same set of chemicals. We find that scenarios used in the selected EU RARs to represent typical exposure situations in occupational or private use of chemicals and products do not necessarily represent worst-case conditions. This can be due to the use of outdated information on technical equipment and conditions in workplaces or omission of pathways that can cause consumer exposure. Considering the need for exposure and risk assessments under the new chemicals legislation of the EU, we suggest that a transparent process of collecting data on exposure situations and of generating representative exposure scenarios is implemented to improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Also, the data sets used to assess human exposure should be harmonized, summarized in a transparent fashion, and made accessible for all risk assessors and the public.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

PubMed

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Principles in genetic risk assessment.

PubMed

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-03-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Collen, Ben; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Gaston, Kevin J; Gärdenfors, Ulf; Keith, David A; Punt, André E; Regan, Helen M; Böhm, Monika; Hedges, Simon; Seddon, Mary; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steven P; Akçakaya, H Reşit

2016-04-01

The identification of species at risk of extinction is a central goal of conservation. As the use of data compiled for IUCN Red List assessments expands, a number of misconceptions regarding the purpose, application and use of the IUCN Red List categories and criteria have arisen. We outline five such classes of misconception; the most consequential drive proposals for adapted versions of the criteria, rendering assessments among species incomparable. A key challenge for the future will be to recognize the point where understanding has developed so markedly that it is time for the next generation of the Red List criteria. We do not believe we are there yet but, recognizing the need for scrutiny and continued development of Red Listing, conclude by suggesting areas where additional research could be valuable in improving the understanding of extinction risk among species. © 2016 The Author(s).

Incorporating Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hihn, Jairus

2011-01-01

This presentation is about cost risk identification and estimation which is only a part of risk management. The purpose of this step is to identify common software risks, to assess their impact on the cost estimate, and to make revisions to the estimate based on these impacts.

Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

PubMed

Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

2017-07-01

The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

The psychosocial effect of thoughts of personal mortality on cardiac risk assessment.

PubMed

Arndt, Jamie; Vess, Matthew; Cox, Cathy R; Goldenberg, Jamie L; Lagle, Stephen

2009-01-01

Prejudice by medical providers has been found to contribute to differential cardiac risk estimates. As such, empirical examinations of psychological factors associated with such biases are warranted. Considerable psychological research implicates concerns with personal mortality in motivating prejudicial biases. The authors sought to examine whether provoking thoughts of mortality among medical students would engender more cautious cardiac risk assessments for a hypothetical Christian than for a Muslim patient. During the spring of 2007, university medical students (N=47) were randomly assigned to conditions in a 2 (mortality salience) x 2 (patient religion) full factorial experimental design. In an online survey, participants answered questions about their mortality or about future uncertainty, inspected emergency room admittance forms for a Muslim or Christian patient complaining of chest pain, and subsequently estimated risk for coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and the combined risk of either of the two. A composite risk index was formed based on the responses (on a scale of 0-100) to each of the 3 cardiac risk questions. Reminders of mortality interacted with patient religion to influence risk assessments, F(1,41)=11.57, P=0.002, eta2 =.22. After being reminded of mortality, participants rendered more serious cardiac risk estimates for a Christian patient (F1,41 =8:66, P=0:01) and less serious estimates for a Muslim patient (F(1,41)=4.08, P=0.05). Reminders of personal mortality can lead to biased patient risk assessment as medical providers use their cultural identification to psychologically manage their awareness of death.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

PubMed

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

Multifactorial screening for fall risk in community-dwelling older adults in the primary care office: development of the fall risk assessment & screening tool.

PubMed

Renfro, Mindy Oxman; Fehrer, Steven

2011-01-01

Unintentional falls is an increasing public health problem as incidence of falls rises and the population ages. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 1 in 3 adults aged 65 years and older will experience a fall this year; 20% to 30% of those who fall will sustain a moderate to severe injury. Physical therapists caring for older adults are usually engaged with these patients after the first injury fall and may have little opportunity to abate fall risk before the injuries occur. This article describes the content selection and development of a simple-to-administer, multifactorial, Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool (FRAST), designed specifically for use in primary care settings to identify those older adults with high fall risk. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool incorporates previously validated measures within a new multifactorial tool and includes targeted recommendations for intervention. Development of the multifactorial FRAST used a 5-part process: identification of significant fall risk factors, review of best evidence, selection of items, creation of the scoring grid, and development of a recommended action plan. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool has been developed to assess fall risk in the target population of older adults (older than 65 years) living and ambulating independently in the community. Many fall risk factors have been considered and 15 items selected for inclusion. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool includes 4 previously validated measures to assess balance, depression, falls efficacy, and home safety. Reliability and validity studies of FRAST are under way. Fall risk for community-dwelling older adults is an urgent, multifactorial, public health problem. Providing primary care practitioners (PCPs) with a very simple screening tool is imperative. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool was created to allow for safe, quick, and low-cost administration by minimally trained office staff with interpretation and

Principles in genetic risk assessment

PubMed Central

Baptista, Pedro Viana

2005-01-01

Risk assessment constitutes an essential component of genetic counseling and testing, and the genetic risk should be estimated as accurately as possible for individual and family decision making. All relevant information retrieved from population studies and pedigree and genetic testing enhances the accuracy of the assessment of an individual's genetic risk. This review will focus on the following general aspects implicated in risk assessment: the increasing genetic information regarding disease; complex traits versus Mendelian disorders; and the influence of the environment and disease susceptibility. The influence of these factors on risk assessment will be discussed. PMID:18360538

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

SUICIDE IN OLDER ADULTS: NURSING ASSESSMENT OF SUICIDE RISK

PubMed Central

Garand, Linda; Mitchell, Ann M.; Dietrick, Ann; Hijjawi, Sophia P.; Pan, Di

2010-01-01

A fundamental objective of the National Strategy for Suicide Prevention is the prevention of suicide in older adults, especially elderly males, because these individuals are at higher risk for suicide than any other age group. Furthermore, they are the fastest growing segment of the population. The suicide rates for older Caucasian men are particularly high. Because nurses play an important role in the identification of persons at risk for suicide, it is important that they be cognizant of the complex risk factors involved in late life suicide. Toward that end, we review the prevalence of suicidal behaviors in older adults and discuss risk factors that contribute to completed suicide in these individuals. Lastly, we discuss the role of nurses in the identification of older adults at risk for suicidal behavior so that life-saving treatment measures can be implemented. PMID:16546935

Relevance and reliability of experimental data in human health risk assessment of pesticides.

PubMed

Kaltenhäuser, Johanna; Kneuer, Carsten; Marx-Stoelting, Philip; Niemann, Lars; Schubert, Jens; Stein, Bernd; Solecki, Roland

2017-08-01

Evaluation of data relevance, reliability and contribution to uncertainty is crucial in regulatory health risk assessment if robust conclusions are to be drawn. Whether a specific study is used as key study, as additional information or not accepted depends in part on the criteria according to which its relevance and reliability are judged. In addition to GLP-compliant regulatory studies following OECD Test Guidelines, data from peer-reviewed scientific literature have to be evaluated in regulatory risk assessment of pesticide active substances. Publications should be taken into account if they are of acceptable relevance and reliability. Their contribution to the overall weight of evidence is influenced by factors including test organism, study design and statistical methods, as well as test item identification, documentation and reporting of results. Various reports make recommendations for improving the quality of risk assessments and different criteria catalogues have been published to support evaluation of data relevance and reliability. Their intention was to guide transparent decision making on the integration of the respective information into the regulatory process. This article describes an approach to assess the relevance and reliability of experimental data from guideline-compliant studies as well as from non-guideline studies published in the scientific literature in the specific context of uncertainty and risk assessment of pesticides. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L

2016-09-01

Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identification of appropriate patients for cardiometabolic risk management.

PubMed

Peters, Anne L

2007-01-01

Patients at increased risk for cardiovascular disease have a wide array of clinical features that should alert practitioners to the need for risk reduction. Some, but not all, of these features relate to insulin resistance. Multiple approaches exist for diagnosing and defining this risk, including the traditional Framingham risk assessment, various definitions of the metabolic syndrome, and assessment of risk factors not commonly included in the standard criteria. This article reviews the many clinical findings that should alert healthcare providers to the need for aggressive cardiovascular risk reduction.

Assessing pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in candidates for kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Maldonado, Angela Q; Tichy, Eric M; Rogers, Christin C; Campara, Maya; Ensor, Christopher; Doligalski, Christina T; Gabardi, Steven; Descourouez, Jillian L; Doyle, Ian C; Trofe-Clark, Jennifer

2015-05-15

Pharmacotherapy concerns and other factors with a bearing on patient selection for kidney transplantation are discussed. The process of selecting appropriate candidates for kidney transplantation involves multidisciplinary assessment to evaluate a patient's mental, social, physical, financial, and medical readiness for successful surgery and good posttransplantation outcomes. Transplantation pharmacists can play important roles in the recognition and stratification of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in prospective kidney transplant recipients and the identification of issues that require a mitigation strategy. Key pharmacotherapy-related issues and considerations during the risk assessment process include (1) anticoagulation concerns, (2) cytochrome P-450 isoenzyme-mediated drug interactions, (3) mental health-related medication use, (4) chronic pain-related medication use, (5) medication allergies, (6) use of hormonal contraception and replacement therapy, (7) prior or current use of immunosuppressants, (8) issues with drug absorption, (9) alcohol use, (10) tobacco use, (11) active use of illicit substances, and (12) use of herbal supplements. Important areas of nonpharmacologic risk include vaccine delivery, infection prophylaxis and treatment, and socially related factors such as nonadherent behavior, communication barriers, and financial, insurance, or transportation challenges that can compromise posttransplantation outcomes. Consensus opinions of practitioners in transplantation pharmacy regarding the pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic factors that should be considered in assessing candidates for kidney transplantation are presented. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

2017-04-01

Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

Medication Safety of Five Oral Chemotherapies: A Proactive Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Weingart, Saul N.; Spencer, Justin; Buia, Stephanie; Duncombe, Deborah; Singh, Prabhjyot; Gadkari, Mrinalini; Connor, Maureen

2011-01-01

Purpose: Oral chemotherapies represent an emerging risk area in ambulatory oncology practice. To examine the hazards associated with five oral chemotherapies, we performed a proactive risk assessment. Methods: We convened interdisciplinary teams and conducted failure mode and effects analyses (FMEAs) for five oral chemotherapy agents: capecitabine, imatinib, temozolomide, 6-mercaptopurine, and an investigational agent. This involved the creation of process maps for each medication, identification of failure modes, selection of high-risk failure modes, and development of recommendations to mitigate these risks. We analyzed the number of steps and types of failure modes and compared this information across the study drugs. Results: Key vulnerabilities include patient education about drug handling and adverse effects, prescription writing, patient self-administration and medication adherence, and failure to monitor and manage toxicities. Many of these failure modes were common across the five oral chemotherapies, suggesting the presence of common targets for improvement. Streamlining the FMEA itself may promote the dissemination of this method. Conclusion: Each stage of the medication process poses risks to the safe use of oral chemotherapies. FMEAs may identify opportunities to improve medication safety and reduce the risk of patient harm. PMID:21532801

Risk assessment and prioritization

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-01-01

The first step to take in order to prevent and minimize the dangers of disasters or attacks, is risk assessment, followed closely by prioritization. This article discusses key vulnerability and risk assessment that Volpe Center has conducted in suppo...

Rossitsa River Basin: Flood Hazard and Risk Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Pencheva, Denislava

2017-04-01

The process of Flood Risk Management Planning and adaptation of measures for flood risk reduction as the Early Warning provoke the necessity of surveys involving Identification aspects. This project presents risk identification combining two lines of analysis: (1) Creation a mathematical model of rainfall-runoff processes in a watershed based on limited number of observed input and output variables; (2) Procedures for determination of critical thresholds - discharges/water levels corresponding to certain consequences. The pilot region is Rossitsa river basin, Sevlievo, Bulgaria. The first line of analysis follows next steps: (a) Creation and calibration of Unit Hydrograph Models based on limited number of observed data for discharge and precipitation; The survey at the selected region has 22 observations for excess rainfall and discharge. (b) The relations of UHM coefficients from the input parameters have been determined statistically, excluding the ANN model of the run-off coefficient as a function of 3 parameters (amount of precipitation two days before, soil condition, intensity of the rainfall) where a feedforward neural network is used. (c) Additional simulations with UHM aiming at generation of synthetic data for rainfall-runoff events, which extend the range of observed data; (d) Training, validation and testing a generalized regional ANN Model for discharge forecasting with 4 input parameters, where the training data set consists of synthetic data, validation and testing data sets consists of observations. A function between consequences and discharges has been reached in the second line of analysis concerning critical hazard levels determination. Unsteady simulations with the hydraulic model using three typical hydrographs for determination of the existing time for reaction from one to upper critical threshold are made. Correction of the critical thresholds aiming at providing necessary time for reaction between the thresholds and probability analysis of

Catchment scale assessment of risk posed by traffic generated heavy metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; McGree, James; Liu, An; Deilami, Kaveh; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-10-01

Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants present in urban stormwater. Consequently, urban stormwater reuse is constrained due to the human health risk posed by these pollutants. This study developed a scientifically robust approach to assess the risk to human health posed by HMs and PAHs in urban stormwater in order to enhance its reuse. Accordingly, an innovative methodology was created consisting of four stages: quantification of traffic and land use parameters; estimation of pollutant concentrations for model development; risk assessment, and risk map presentation. This methodology will contribute to catchment scale assessment of the risk associated with urban stormwater and for risk mitigation. The risk map developed provides a simple and efficient approach to identify the critical areas within a large catchment. The study also found that heavy molecular weight PAHs (PAHs with 5-6 benzene rings) in urban stormwater pose higher risk to human health compared to light molecular PAHs (PAHs with 2-4 benzene rings). These outcomes will facilitate the development of practical approaches for applying appropriate mitigation measures for the safe management of urban stormwater pollution and for the identification of enhanced reuse opportunities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISKS OF ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Children's Health Risk Assessment report can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk assessments at EPA. This framework lays out the process, points to existing published sources for more detailed information on life stage-specific considerations, and includes web links to specific online publications and relevant Agency science policy papers, guidelines and guidance. The document emphasizes the need to take into account the potential exposures to environmental agents during preconception and all stages of development and focuses on the relevant adverse health outcomes that may occur as a result of such exposures. This framework is not an Agency guideline, but rather describes the overall structure and the components considered important for children's health risk assessment. The document describes an approach that includes problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization, and also builds on Agency experience assessing risk to susceptible populations. The problem formulation step focuses on the life stage-specific nature of the analysis to include scoping and screening level questions for hazard characterization, dose response and exposure assessment. The risk characterization step recognizes the need to consider life stage-specific risks and explicitly describes the uncertainties and variability in the d

CHARACTERIZATION OF RISKS POSED BY COMBUSTOR EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Risk characterization is the final step of the risk assessment process as practiced in the U.S. EPA. In risk characterization, the major scientific evidence and "bottom-line" results from the other components of the risk assessment process, hazard identification, dose-response as...

Early Identification of Children at Risk for Academic Difficulties Using Standardized Assessment: Stability and Predictive Validity of Preschool Math and Language Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frans, Niek; Post, Wendy J.; Huisman, Mark; Oenema-Mostert, Ineke C. E.; Keegstra, Anne L.; Minnaert, Alexander E. M. G.

2017-01-01

Despite the claim by several researchers that variability in performance may complicate the identification of "at-risk" children, variability in the academic performance of young children remains an undervalued area of research. The goal of this study is to examine the predictive validity for future scores and the score stability of two…

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

PubMed

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

Empirical performance of the self-controlled case series design: lessons for developing a risk identification and analysis system.

PubMed

Suchard, Marc A; Zorych, Ivan; Simpson, Shawn E; Schuemie, Martijn J; Ryan, Patrick B; Madigan, David

2013-10-01

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) offers potential as an statistical method for risk identification involving medical products from large-scale observational healthcare data. However, analytic design choices remain in encoding the longitudinal health records into the SCCS framework and its risk identification performance across real-world databases is unknown. To evaluate the performance of SCCS and its design choices as a tool for risk identification in observational healthcare data. We examined the risk identification performance of SCCS across five design choices using 399 drug-health outcome pairs in five real observational databases (four administrative claims and one electronic health records). In these databases, the pairs involve 165 positive controls and 234 negative controls. We also consider several synthetic databases with known relative risks between drug-outcome pairs. We evaluate risk identification performance through estimating the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve (AUC) and bias and coverage probability in the synthetic examples. The SCCS achieves strong predictive performance. Twelve of the twenty health outcome-database scenarios return AUCs >0.75 across all drugs. Including all adverse events instead of just the first per patient and applying a multivariate adjustment for concomitant drug use are the most important design choices. However, the SCCS as applied here returns relative risk point-estimates biased towards the null value of 1 with low coverage probability. The SCCS recently extended to apply a multivariate adjustment for concomitant drug use offers promise as a statistical tool for risk identification in large-scale observational healthcare databases. Poor estimator calibration dampens enthusiasm, but on-going work should correct this short-coming.

Cancer Risk Assessment Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aidala, Jim

1985-01-01

Describes the scientific basis of cancer risk assessment, outlining the dominant controversies surrounding the use of different methods for identifying carcinogens (short-term tests, animal bioassays, and epidemiological studies). Points out that risk assessment is as much an art as it is a science. (DH)

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

PubMed Central

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

The Identification and Care of Those at Highest Risk of Cancer

Cancer.gov

Frederick P. Li, MD, Chief, Cancer Control Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Control, Adult Oncology Department at Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center, Boston, MA, presented "The Identification and Care of Those at Highest Risk of Cancer".

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: challenges and limitations.

PubMed

Eastmond, David A; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V; French, John E; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2013-09-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53⁺/⁻, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program's conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals.

The use of genetically modified mice in cancer risk assessment: Challenges and limitations*

PubMed Central

Eastmond, David A.; Vulimiri, Suryanarayana V.; French, John E.; Sonawane, Babasaheb

2015-01-01

The use of genetically modified (GM) mice to assess carcinogenicity is playing an increasingly important role in the safety evaluation of chemicals. While progress has been made in developing and evaluating mouse models such as the Trp53+/−, Tg.AC and the rasH2, the suitability of these models as replacements for the conventional rodent cancer bioassay and for assessing human health risks remains uncertain. The objective of this research was to evaluate the use of accelerated cancer bioassays with GM mice for assessing the potential health risks associated with exposure to carcinogenic agents. We compared the published results from the GM bioassays to those obtained in the National Toxicology Program’s conventional chronic mouse bioassay for their potential use in risk assessment. Our analysis indicates that the GM models are less efficient in detecting carcinogenic agents but more consistent in identifying non-carcinogenic agents. We identified several issues of concern related to the design of the accelerated bioassays (e.g., sample size, study duration, genetic stability and reproducibility) as well as pathway-dependency of effects, and different carcinogenic mechanisms operable in GM and non-GM mice. The use of the GM models for dose-response assessment is particularly problematic as these models are, at times, much more or less sensitive than the conventional rodent cancer bioassays. Thus, the existing GM mouse models may be useful for hazard identification, but will be of limited use for dose-response assessment. Hence, caution should be exercised when using GM mouse models to assess the carcinogenic risks of chemicals. PMID:23985072

Assessment of nurses' knowledge on evidence-based preventive practices for pressure ulcer risk reduction in patients with impaired mobility.

PubMed

Akese, M I; Adejumo, P O; Ilesanmi, R E; Obilor, H N

2014-09-01

The increase in the prevalence of pressure ulcer among patients with impaired physical mobility has currently been associated with nurses' inadequate knowledge of preventive interventions. To assess nurses' knowledge of pressure ulcer identification/staging, risk factors and evidence-based preventive practices. This descriptive study was carried out at the University Teaching Hospital Maiduguri (UMTH), Borno State, Nigeria. Total sampling technique was utilized in the recruitment of the study participants. An adapted 75-item-pressure ulcer questionnaire was used for data collection. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. The hypotheses on nurses' knowledge were tested at 0.05 level of significance using Chi square test. A total of 219 nurses participated in this study with response rate of 68.0%. The nurses' years of professional practice ranged from 1 to 35 years with a mean of 11.7 (± 7.8) years. Approximately, 73% of the nurses demonstrated a low level of knowledge of pressure ulcer identification/staging, 69.4% demonstrated an average level of knowledge of risk factors and 79.9% demonstrated high level of knowledge of preventive practices. The relationship between nurses' knowledge of risk factors and knowledge of preventive practices (p = 0.37) was not significant. Nurses demonstrated a knowledge deficit in core areas on pressure ulcer identification/staging, risk factors' assessment and evidence-based preventive practices. In order to address this dearth, there is a need to institute an educational-based practice-guideline on pressure ulcer prevention for nurses.

Suboptimal identification of patient-specific risk factors for poor wound healing can be improved by simple interventions.

PubMed

Harris, Lauren S; Luck, Joshua E; Atherton, Rachel R

2017-02-01

Poor wound healing is an important surgical complication. At-risk wounds must be identified early and monitored appropriately. Wound surveillance is frequently inadequate, leading to increased rates of surgical site infections (SSIs). Although the literature demonstrates that risk factor identification reduces SSI rates, no studies have focused on wound management at a junior level. Our study assesses documentation rates of patient-specific risk factors for poor wound healing at a large district general hospital in the UK. It critically evaluates the efficacy of interventions designed to promote surveillance of high-risk wounds. We conducted a full-cycle clinical audit examining medical records of patients undergoing elective surgery over 5 days. Interventions included education of the multidisciplinary team and addition of a Wound Healing Risk Assessment (WHRA) checklist to surgical admissions booklets. This checklist provided a simple stratification tool for at-risk wounds and recommendations for escalation. Prior to interventions, the documentation of patient-specific risk factors ranged from 0·0% to 91·7% (mean 42·6%). Following interventions, this increased to 86·4-95·5% (mean 92·5%), a statistically significant increase of 117·1% (P < 0·01). This study demonstrates that documentation of patient-specific risk factors for poor wound healing is inadequate. We have shown the benefit of introducing interventions to increase risk factor awareness. © 2016 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

GAR Global Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Identification of foot and mouth disease risk areas using a multi-criteria analysis approach

PubMed Central

Silva, Gustavo Sousa e; Weber, Eliseu José; Hasenack, Heinrich; Groff, Fernando Henrique Sautter; Todeschini, Bernardo; Borba, Mauro Riegert; Medeiros, Antonio Augusto Rosa; Leotti, Vanessa Bielefeldt; Canal, Cláudio Wageck; Corbellini, Luis Gustavo

2017-01-01

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious disease that affects cloven-hoofed livestock and wildlife. FMD has been a problem for decades, which has led to various measures to control, eradicate and prevent FMD by National Veterinary Services worldwide. Currently, the identification of areas that are at risk of FMD virus incursion and spread is a priority for FMD target surveillance after FMD is eradicated from a given country or region. In our study, a knowledge-driven spatial model was built to identify risk areas for FMD occurrence and to evaluate FMD surveillance performance in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. For this purpose, multi-criteria decision analysis was used as a tool to seek multiple and conflicting criteria to determine a preferred course of action. Thirteen South American experts analyzed 18 variables associated with FMD introduction and dissemination pathways in Rio Grande do Sul. As a result, FMD higher risk areas were identified at international borders and in the central region of the state. The final model was expressed as a raster surface. The predictive ability of the model assessed by comparing, for each cell of the raster surface, the computed model risk scores with a binary variable representing the presence or absence of an FMD outbreak in that cell during the period 1985 to 2015. Current FMD surveillance performance was assessed, and recommendations were made to improve surveillance activities in critical areas. PMID:28552973

Technical guide for applications of gene expression profiling in human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Bourdon-Lacombe, Julie A; Moffat, Ivy D; Deveau, Michelle; Husain, Mainul; Auerbach, Scott; Krewski, Daniel; Thomas, Russell S; Bushel, Pierre R; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L

2015-07-01

Toxicogenomics promises to be an important part of future human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals. The application of gene expression profiles (e.g., for hazard identification, chemical prioritization, chemical grouping, mode of action discovery, and quantitative analysis of response) is growing in the literature, but their use in formal risk assessment by regulatory agencies is relatively infrequent. Although additional validations for specific applications are required, gene expression data can be of immediate use for increasing confidence in chemical evaluations. We believe that a primary reason for the current lack of integration is the limited practical guidance available for risk assessment specialists with limited experience in genomics. The present manuscript provides basic information on gene expression profiling, along with guidance on evaluating the quality of genomic experiments and data, and interpretation of results presented in the form of heat maps, pathway analyses and other common approaches. Moreover, potential ways to integrate information from gene expression experiments into current risk assessment are presented using published studies as examples. The primary objective of this work is to facilitate integration of gene expression data into human health risk assessments of environmental chemicals. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Models (BOSC CSS meeting)

EPA Science Inventory

In vitro assays are increasingly being used in risk assessments Uncertainty in assays leads to uncertainty in models used for risk assessments. This poster assesses uncertainty in the ER and AR models.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Cancer.gov

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

2012-12-01

As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

RESULTS OF APPLYING TOXICITY IDENTIFICATION PROCEDURES TO FIELD COLLECTED SEDIMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Identification of specific causes of sediment toxicity can allow for much more focused risk assessment and management decision making. We have been developing toxicity identification evaluation TIE) methods for contaminated sediments and are focusing on three toxicant groups (amm...

Schedule Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Greg

2003-01-01

Schedule Risk Assessment needs to determine the probability of finishing on or before a given point in time. Task in a schedule should reflect the "most likely" duration for each task. IN reality, each task is different and has a varying degree of probability of finishing within or after the duration specified. Schedule risk assessment attempt to quantify these probabilities by assigning values to each task. Bridges the gap between CPM scheduling and the project's need to know the likelihood of "when".

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

MedlinePlus

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

[Informatics support for risk assessment and identification of preventive measures in small and micro-enterprises: occupational hazard datasheets].

PubMed

de Merich, D; Forte, Giulia

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is the fundamental process of an enterprise's prevention system and is the principal mandatory provision contained in the Health and Safety Law (Legislative Decree 81/2008) amended by Legislative Decree 106/2009. In order to properly comply with this obligation also in small-sized enterprises, the appropriate regulatory bodies should provide the enterprises with standardized tools and methods for identifying, assessing and managing risks. To assist in particular small and micro-enterprises (SMEs) with risk assessment, by providing a flexible tool that can also be standardized in the form of a datasheet, that can be updated with more detailed information on the various work contexts in Italy. Official efforts to provide Italian SMEs with information may initially make use of the findings of research conducted by ISPESL over the past 20 years, thanks in part to cooperation with other institutions (Regions, INAIL-National Insurance Institute for Occupational Accidents and Diseases), which have led to the creation of an information system on prevention consisting of numerous databases, both statistical and documental ("National System of Surveillance on fatal and serious accidents", "National System of Surveillance on work-related diseases", "Sector hazard profiles" database, "Solutions and Best Practices" database, "Technical Guidelines" database, "Training packages for prevention professionals in enterprises" database). With regard to evaluation criteria applicable within the enterprise, the possibility of combining traditional and uniform areas of assessment (by sector or by risk factor) with assessments by job/occupation has become possible thanks to the cooperation agreement made in 2009 by ISPESL, the ILO (International Labour Organisation) of Geneva and IIOSH (Israel Institute for Occupational Health and Hygiene) regarding the creation of an international Database (HDODB) based on risk datasheets per occupation. The project sets out to assist in

Regional risk assessment approaches to land planning for industrial polluted areas in China: the Hulunbeier region case study.

PubMed

Li, Daiqing; Zhang, Chen; Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Zhang, Haibo; Lv, Shihai; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-04-01

The rapid industrial development and urbanization processes that occurred in China over the past 30years has increased dramatically the consumption of natural resources and raw materials, thus exacerbating the human pressure on environmental ecosystems. In result, large scale environmental pollution of soil, natural waters and urban air were recorded. The development of effective industrial planning to support regional sustainable economy development has become an issue of serious concern for local authorities which need to select safe sites for new industrial settlements (i.e. industrial plants) according to assessment approaches considering cumulative impacts, synergistic pollution effects and risks of accidental releases. In order to support decision makers in the development of efficient and effective regional land-use plans encompassing the identification of suitable areas for new industrial settlements and areas in need of intervention measures, this study provides a spatial regional risk assessment methodology which integrates relative risk assessment (RRA) and socio-economic assessment (SEA) and makes use of spatial analysis (GIS) methodologies and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques. The proposed methodology was applied to the Chinese region of Hulunbeier which is located in eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, adjacent to the Republic of Mongolia. The application results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the identification of the most hazardous and risky industrial settlements, the most vulnerable regional receptors and the regional districts which resulted to be the most relevant for intervention measures since they are characterized by high regional risk and excellent socio-economic development conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Technology-Enhanced Formative Assessment of Plant Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conejo, Ricardo; Garcia-Viñas, Juan Ignacio; Gastón, Aitor; Barros, Beatriz

2016-01-01

Developing plant identification skills is an important part of the curriculum of any botany course in higher education. Frequent practice with dried and fresh plants is necessary to recognize the diversity of forms, states, and details that a species can present. We have developed a web-based assessment system for mobile devices that is able to…

Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

2013-01-01

The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk…

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Values in science and risk assessment.

PubMed

Wandall, Birgitte

2004-09-25

It is a widely accepted claim that scientific practice contains value judgments, i.e. decisions made on the basis of values. This paper clarifies the concepts involved in this claim and explains its implications for risk assessment. It is explained why values are necessarily a part of science and of risk assessment. A certain type of values that contribute to the aim of science, so-called epistemic values, are identified as rationally justified as basis for judgment in science. It is argued that the aims of pure science and risk assessment differ in some aspects and that consequently pure science's epistemic values are not sufficient for risk assessment. I suggest how the epistemic values may be supplemented in order to align better with the aim of risk assessment. It is concluded that since risk assessment is no less value-laden than pure science, it is important (a) that risk assessors become aware of what values they are (often implicitly) relying on, (b) that the values are justifiable, and (c) that transparency is ensured, i.e. that the values and value-based assumptions applied in particular risk assessments are explicitly acknowledged.

Effectiveness of interactive discussion group in suicide risk assessment among general nurses in Taiwan: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Wu, Chia-Yi; Lin, Yi-Yin; Yeh, Mei Chang; Huang, Lian-Hua; Chen, Shaw-Ji; Liao, Shih-Cheng; Lee, Ming-Been

2014-11-01

The evidence of suicide prevention training for nurses is scarce. Strategies to enhance general nurses' ability in suicide risk assessment are critical to develop effective training programs in general medical settings. This study was aimed to examine the effectiveness of an interactive discussion group in a suicide prevention training program for general nurses. In this randomized study with two groups of pre-post study design, the sample was recruited from the Medical, Surgical, and Emergency/Intensive Care Sectors of a 2000-bed general hospital via stratified randomization. Among the 111 nurses, 57 participants randomly assigned to the control group received a two-hour baseline suicide gatekeeper lecture, and 54 participants assigning to the experimental group received an additional five-hour group discussion about suicide risk assessment skills. Using a case vignette, the nurses discussed and assessed suicide risk factors specified in a 10-item Chinese SAD PERSONS Scale during a group discussion intervention. The findings revealed that the nurses achieved significant and consistent improvements of risk identification and assessment after the intervention without influencing their mental health status for assessing suicide risks. The result suggested an effective approach of interactive group discussion for facilitating critical thinking and learning suicide risk assessment skills among general nurses. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed.

PubMed

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P T; Caldwell, Deborah M; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews ("reviews of reviews"), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed

PubMed Central

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P.T.; Caldwell, Deborah M.; Reeves, Barnaby C.; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

Objective To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). Study Design and Setting We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. Results ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews (“reviews of reviews”), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. Conclusions ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. PMID:26092286

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

PubMed

Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-02-01

Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

MedlinePlus

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Ecosystem Services as Assessment Endpoints in Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The focus of ecological risk assessment (ERA) is on assessment endpoints, explicit expressions of environmental values to be protected. Traditionally, the ecological entities identified in assessment endpoints have been components of ecosystems deemed by risk assessors to be impo...

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

Evidence on existing caries risk assessment systems: are they predictive of future caries?

PubMed

Tellez, M; Gomez, J; Pretty, I; Ellwood, R; Ismail, A I

2013-02-01

To critically appraise evidence for the prediction of caries using four caries risk assessment (CRA) systems/guidelines (Cariogram, Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA), American Dental Association (ADA), and American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry (AAPD)). This review focused on prospective cohort studies or randomized controlled trials. A systematic search strategy was developed to locate papers published in Medline Ovid and Cochrane databases. The search identified 539 scientific reports, and after title and abstract review, 137 were selected for full review and 14 met the following inclusion criteria: (i) used as validating criterion caries incidence/increment, (ii) involved human subjects and natural carious lesions, and (iii) published in peer-reviewed journals. In addition, papers were excluded if they met one or more of the following criteria: (i) incomplete description of sample selection, outcomes, or small sample size and (ii) not meeting the criteria for best evidence under the prognosis category of the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. There are wide variations among the systems in terms of definitions of caries risk categories, type and number of risk factors/markers, and disease indicators. The Cariogram combined sensitivity and specificity for predicting caries in permanent dentition ranges from 110 to 139 and is the only system for which prospective studies have been conducted to assess its validity. The Cariogram had limited prediction utility in preschool children, and a moderate to good performance for sorting out elderly individuals into caries risk groups. One retrospective analysis on CAMBRA's CRA reported higher incidence of cavitated lesions among those assessed as extreme-risk patients when compared with those at low risk. The evidence on the validity for existing systems for CRA is limited. It is unknown if the identification of high-risk individuals can lead to more effective long-term patient management that prevents

Identification of Commercial Items Risk Factors

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

performance measures, vendors availability of support, testing and managing organizational change . 1. Process Risk Factor: Commercial Standards Military...support, testing and managing organizational change . C. ASSESSING RESULTS Completing the questions and assessing/compiling the results should help...to performance measures, vendors availability of support, testing and managing organizational change . SECTION I Service

Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

PubMed Central

Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

2011-01-01

Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

[Design of a risk matrix to assess sterile formulations at health care facilities].

PubMed

Martín de Rosales Cabrera, A M; López Cabezas, C; García Salom, P

2014-05-01

To design a matrix allowing classifying sterile formulations prepared at the hospital with different risk levels. i) Literature search and critical appraisal of the model proposed by the European Resolution CM/Res Ap(2011)1, ii) Identification of the risk associated to the elaboration process by means of the AMFE methodology (Modal Analysis of Failures and Effects), iii) estimation of the severity associated to the risks detected. After initially trying a model of numeric scoring, the classification matrix was changed to an alphabetical classification, grading each criterion from A to D.Each preparation assessed is given a 6-letter combination with three possible risk levels: low, intermediate, and high. This model was easier for risk assignment, and more reproducible. The final model designed analyzes 6 criteria: formulation process, administration route, the drug's safety profile, amount prepared, distribution, and susceptibility for microbiological contamination.The risk level obtained will condition the requirements of the formulation area, validity time, and storing conditions. The matrix model proposed may help health care institutions to better assess the risk of sterile formulations prepared,and provides information about the acceptable validity time according to the storing conditions and the manufacturing area. Its use will increase the safety level of this procedure as well as help in resources planning and distribution. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Intellectual, Achievement, and Mental Health Evaluation of At-Risk Adolescents: Assessing Comorbidity of ADHD, LD, and Conduct Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bullock, Wesley A.; And Others

A multidimensional clinical assessment project was conducted on an at-risk adolescent population (n=78) in a public school setting. The focus of the project was on the identification of specific learning disabilities (LD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as they relate to mental health problems and scholastic difficulties.…

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Environmental risk assessment of biocidal products: identification of relevant components and reliability of a component-based mixture assessment.

PubMed

Coors, Anja; Vollmar, Pia; Heim, Jennifer; Sacher, Frank; Kehrer, Anja

2018-01-01

Biocidal products are mixtures of one or more active substances (a.s.) and a broad range of formulation additives. There is regulatory guidance currently under development that will specify how the combined effects of the a.s. and any relevant formulation additives shall be considered in the environmental risk assessment of biocidal products. The default option is a component-based approach (CBA) by which the toxicity of the product is predicted from the toxicity of 'relevant' components using concentration addition. Hence, unequivocal and practicable criteria are required for identifying the 'relevant' components to ensure protectiveness of the CBA, while avoiding unnecessary workload resulting from including by default components that do not significantly contribute to the product toxicity. The present study evaluated a set of different criteria for identifying 'relevant' components using confidential information on the composition of 21 wood preservative products. Theoretical approaches were complemented by experimentally testing the aquatic toxicity of seven selected products. For three of the seven tested products, the toxicity was underestimated for the most sensitive endpoint (green algae) by more than factor 2 if only the a.s. were considered in the CBA. This illustrated the necessity of including at least some additives along with the a.s. Considering additives that were deemed 'relevant' by the tentatively established criteria reduced the underestimation of toxicity for two of the three products. A lack of data for one specific additive was identified as the most likely reason for the remaining toxicity underestimation of the third product. In three other products, toxicity was overestimated by more than factor 2, while prediction and observation fitted well for the seventh product. Considering all additives in the prediction increased only the degree of overestimation. Supported by theoretical calculations and experimental verifications, the present

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Framework for Metals Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Framework for Metals Risk Assessment is a science-based document that addresses the special attributes and behaviors of metals and metal compounds to be considered when assessing their human health and ecological risks.

Risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model at different spatial-temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Xu, Jinchao; Guo, Qizhong; Hang, Qingfeng; Chen, Yaqian

2018-05-01

Aiming at reducing losses from flood disaster, risk assessment of flood disaster and forewarning model is studied. The model is built upon risk indices in flood disaster system, proceeding from the whole structure and its parts at different spatial-temporal scales. In this study, on the one hand, it mainly establishes the long-term forewarning model for the surface area with three levels of prediction, evaluation, and forewarning. The method of structure-adaptive back-propagation neural network on peak identification is used to simulate indices in prediction sub-model. Set pair analysis is employed to calculate the connection degrees of a single index, comprehensive index, and systematic risk through the multivariate connection number, and the comprehensive assessment is made by assessment matrixes in evaluation sub-model. The comparison judging method is adopted to divide warning degree of flood disaster on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards in forewarning sub-model and then the long-term local conditions for proposing planning schemes. On the other hand, it mainly sets up the real-time forewarning model for the spot, which introduces the real-time correction technique of Kalman filter based on hydrological model with forewarning index, and then the real-time local conditions for presenting an emergency plan. This study takes Tunxi area, Huangshan City of China, as an example. After risk assessment and forewarning model establishment and application for flood disaster at different spatial-temporal scales between the actual and simulated data from 1989 to 2008, forewarning results show that the development trend for flood disaster risk remains a decline on the whole from 2009 to 2013, despite the rise in 2011. At the macroscopic level, project and non-project measures are advanced, while at the microcosmic level, the time, place, and method are listed. It suggests that the proposed model is feasible with theory and application, thus

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: MAGNETIC TAPE ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Magnetic Tape Manufacturing source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Problem formulation and option assessment (PFOA) linking governance and environmental risk assessment for technologies: a methodology for problem analysis of nanotechnologies and genetically engineered organisms.

PubMed

Nelson, Kristen C; Andow, David A; Banker, Michael J

2009-01-01

Societal evaluation of new technologies, specifically nanotechnology and genetically engineered organisms (GEOs), challenges current practices of governance and science. Employing environmental risk assessment (ERA) for governance and oversight assumes we have a reasonable ability to understand consequences and predict adverse effects. However, traditional ERA has come under considerable criticism for its many shortcomings and current governance institutions have demonstrated limitations in transparency, public input, and capacity. Problem Formulation and Options Assessment (PFOA) is a methodology founded on three key concepts in risk assessment (science-based consideration, deliberation, and multi-criteria analysis) and three in governance (participation, transparency, and accountability). Developed through a series of international workshops, the PFOA process emphasizes engagement with stakeholders in iterative stages, from identification of the problem(s) through comparison of multiple technology solutions that could be used in the future with their relative benefits, harms, and risk. It provides "upstream public engagement" in a deliberation informed by science that identifies values for improved decision making.

Occurrence and quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in soil and air samples.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2014-09-01

Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts can be transmitted by the fecal-oral route and may cause gastrointestinal parasitic zoonoses. These zoonoses are common in rural zones due to the parasites being harbored in fecally contaminated soil. This study assessed the risk of illness (giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis) from inhaling and/or ingesting soil and/or airborne dust in Potam, Mexico. To assess the risk of infection, Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was employed, with the following steps: (1) hazard identification, (2) hazard exposure, (3) dose-response, and (4) risk characterization. Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts were observed in 52% and 57%, respectively, of total soil samples (n=21), and in 60% and 80%, respectively, of air samples (n=12). The calculated annual risks were higher than 9.9 × 10(-1) for both parasites in both types of sample. Soil and air inhalation and/or ingestion are important vehicles for these parasites. To our knowledge, the results obtained in the present study represent the first QMRAs for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis due to soil and air inhalation/ingestion in Mexico. In addition, this is the first evidence of the microbial air quality around these parasites in rural zones. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the first step in a long-term effort to develop risk assessment guidelines for ecological effects. Its primary purpose is to offer a simple, flexible structure for conducting and evaluating ecological risk assessment within EPA.

Use of new scientific developments in regulatory risk assessments: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Tarazona, Jose V

2013-07-01

Since the 1990s, science based ecological risk assessments constitute an essential tool for supporting decision making in the regulatory context. Using the European REACH Regulation as example, this article presents the challenges and opportunities for new scientific developments within the area of chemical control and environmental protection. These challenges can be sorted out in 3 main related topics (sets). In the short term, the challenges are directly associated with the regulatory requirements, required for facilitating a scientifically sound implementation of the different obligations for industry and authorities. It is important to mention that although the actual tools are different due to the regulatory requirements, the basic needs are still the same as those addressed in the early 1990s: understanding the ecological relevance of the predicted effects, including the uncertainty, and facilitating the link with the socio-economic assessment. The second set of challenges covers the opportunities for getting an added value from the regulatory efforts. The information compiled through REACH registration and notification processes is analyzed as source for new integrative developments for assessing the combined chemical risk at the regional level. Finally, the article discusses the challenge of inverting the process and developing risk assessment methods focusing on the receptor, the individual or ecosystem, instead of on the stressor or source. These approaches were limited in the past due to the lack of information, but the identification and dissemination of standard information, including uses, manufacturing sites, physical-chemical, environmental, ecotoxicological, and toxicological properties as well as operational conditions and risk management measures for thousands of chemicals, combined by the knowledge gathered through large scale monitoring programs and spatial information systems is generating new opportunities. The challenge is liking

Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

2017-04-01

The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were

The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide.

PubMed

Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

2017-11-01

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority among health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above the threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX®. Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such

The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide

PubMed Central

Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

2017-01-01

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority amongst health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX®. Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such approaches

The impact of fragility fracture and approaches to osteoporosis risk assessment worldwide

PubMed Central

Curtis, Elizabeth M; Moon, Rebecca J; Harvey, Nicholas C; Cooper, Cyrus

2017-01-01

Osteoporosis constitutes a major public health problem, through its association with age-related fractures, particularly of the hip, vertebrae, distal forearm and humerus. Substantial geographic variation has been noted in the incidence of osteoporotic fractures worldwide, with Western populations (North America, Europe and Oceania), reporting increases in hip fracture throughout the second half of the 20th century, with a stabilisation or decline in the last two decades. In developing populations however, particularly in Asia, the rates of osteoporotic fracture appears to be increasing. The massive global burden consequent to osteoporosis means that fracture risk assessment should be a high priority amongst health measures considered by policy makers. The WHO operational definition of osteoporosis, based on a measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), has been used globally since the mid-1990s. However, although this definition identifies those at greatest individual risk of fracture, in the population overall a greater total number of fractures occur in individuals with BMD values above threshold for osteoporosis diagnosis. A number of web-based tools to enable the inclusion of clinical risk factors, with or without BMD, in fracture prediction algorithms have been developed to improve the identification of individuals at high fracture risk, the most commonly used globally being FRAX®. Access to DXA, osteoporosis risk assessment, case finding and treatment varies worldwide, but despite such advances studies indicate that a minority of men and women at high fracture risk receive treatment. Importantly, research is ongoing to demonstrate the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis case finding and risk assessment strategies worldwide. The huge burden caused by osteoporosis related fractures to individuals, healthcare systems and societies should provide a clear impetus for the progression of such approaches

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

PubMed

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Fact Sheet: Assessing Risks from Flame Retardants

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's assessing and managing risk programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BENEFITS ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

Among the important types of information considered in decision making at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are the outputs of risk assessments and benefit-cost analyses. Risk assessments present estimates of the adverse consequences of exposure to environmental poll...

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-12-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Ecosystem Risk Assessment Using the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battista, W.; Fujita, R.; Karr, K.

2016-02-01

Effective Ecosystem Based Management requires a localized understanding of the health and functioning of a given system as well as of the various factors that may threaten the ongoing ability of the system to support the provision of valued services. Several risk assessment models are available that can provide a scientific basis for understanding these factors and for guiding management action, but these models focus mainly on single species and evaluate only the impacts of fishing in detail. We have developed a new ecosystem risk assessment model - the Comprehensive Assessment of Risk to Ecosystems (CARE) - that allows analysts to consider the cumulative impact of multiple threats, interactions among multiple threats that may result in synergistic or antagonistic impacts, and the impacts of a suite of threats on whole-ecosystem productivity and functioning, as well as on specific ecosystem services. The CARE model was designed to be completed in as little as two hours, and uses local and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The CARE tool can be used to evaluate risks facing a single site; to compare multiple sites for the suitability or necessity of different management options; or to evaluate the effects of a proposed management action aimed at reducing one or more risks. This analysis can help users identify which threats are the most important at a given site, and therefore where limited management resources should be targeted. CARE can be applied to virtually any system, and can be modified as knowledge is gained or to better match different site characteristics. CARE builds on previous ecosystem risk assessment tools to provide a comprehensive assessment of fishing and non-fishing threats that can be used to inform environmental management decisions across a broad range of systems.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Predictive validity of the identification of seniors at risk screening tool in a German emergency department setting.

PubMed

Singler, Katrin; Heppner, Hans Jürgen; Skutetzky, Andreas; Sieber, Cornel; Christ, Michael; Thiem, Ulrich

2014-01-01

The identification of patients at high risk for adverse outcomes [death, unplanned readmission to emergency department (ED)/hospital, functional decline] plays an important role in emergency medicine. The Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) instrument is one of the most commonly used and best-validated screening tools. As to the authors' knowledge so far there are no data on any screening tool for the identification of older patients at risk for a negative outcome in Germany. To evaluate the validity of the ISAR screening tool in a German ED. This was a prospective single-center observational cohort study in an ED of an urban university-affiliated hospital. Participants were 520 patients aged ≥75 years consecutively admitted to the ED. The German version of the ISAR screening tool was administered directly after triage of the patients. Follow-up telephone interviews to assess outcome variables were conducted 28 and 180 days after the index visit in the ED. The primary end point was death from any cause or hospitalization or recurrent ED visit or change of residency into a long-term care facility on day 28 after the index ED visit. The mean age ± SD was 82.8 ± 5.0 years. According to ISAR, 425 patients (81.7%) scored ≥2 points, and 315 patients (60.5%) scored ≥3 points. The combined primary end point was observed in 250 of 520 patients (48.1%) on day 28 and in 260 patients (50.0%) on day 180. Using a continuous ISAR score the area under the curve on day 28 was 0.621 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.573-0.669) and 0.661 (95% CI 0.615-0.708) on day 180, respectively. The German version of the ISAR screening tool acceptably identified elderly patients in the ED with an increased risk of a negative outcome. Using the cutoff ≥3 points instead of ≥2 points yielded better overall results.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

PubMed

Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

2008-11-15

The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Research on factors allowing a risk assessment of spore-forming pathogenic bacteria in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables: a FAIR collaborative project.

PubMed

Carlin, F; Girardin, H; Peck, M W; Stringer, S C; Barker, G C; Martinez, A; Fernandez, A; Fernandez, P; Waites, W M; Movahedi, S; van Leusden, F; Nauta, M; Moezelaar, R; Torre, M D; Litman, S

2000-09-25

Vegetables are frequent ingredients of cooked chilled foods and are frequently contaminated with spore-forming bacteria (SFB). Therefore, risk assessment studies have been carried out, including the following: hazard identification and characterisation--from an extensive literature review and expertise of the participants, B. cereus and C. botulinum were identified as the main hazards; exposure assessment--consisting of determination of the prevalence of hazardous SFB in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables and in unprocessed vegetables, and identification of SFB representative of the bacterial community in cooked chilled foods containing vegetables, determination of heat-resistance parameters and factors affecting heat resistance of SFB, determination of the growth kinetics of SFB in vegetable substrate and of the influence of controlling factors, validation of previous work in complex food systems and by challenge testing and information about process and storage conditions of cooked chilled foods containing vegetables. The paper illustrates some original results obtained in the course of the project. The results and information collected from scientific literature or from the expertise of the participants are integrated into the microbial risk assessment, using both a Bayesian belief network approach and a process risk model approach, previously applied to other foodborne hazards.

PredictABEL: an R package for the assessment of risk prediction models.

PubMed

Kundu, Suman; Aulchenko, Yurii S; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Janssens, A Cecile J W

2011-04-01

The rapid identification of genetic markers for multifactorial diseases from genome-wide association studies is fuelling interest in investigating the predictive ability and health care utility of genetic risk models. Various measures are available for the assessment of risk prediction models, each addressing a different aspect of performance and utility. We developed PredictABEL, a package in R that covers descriptive tables, measures and figures that are used in the analysis of risk prediction studies such as measures of model fit, predictive ability and clinical utility, and risk distributions, calibration plot and the receiver operating characteristic plot. Tables and figures are saved as separate files in a user-specified format, which include publication-quality EPS and TIFF formats. All figures are available in a ready-made layout, but they can be customized to the preferences of the user. The package has been developed for the analysis of genetic risk prediction studies, but can also be used for studies that only include non-genetic risk factors. PredictABEL is freely available at the websites of GenABEL ( http://www.genabel.org ) and CRAN ( http://cran.r-project.org/).

Summary Report: Risk Assessment Forum Technical Workshop on Population-level Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2008 technical workshop regarding development of additional guidelines or best practices for planning, implementing and interpreting ecological risk assessments that involve population-level assessment endpoints.

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

PubMed

Belfrage, Henrik; Strand, Susanne; Storey, Jennifer E; Gibas, Andrea L; Kropp, P Randall; Hart, Stephen D

2012-02-01

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

2012-01-01

The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the

A simple tool for preliminary hazard identification and quick assessment in craftwork and small/medium enterprises (SME).

PubMed

Colombini, Daniela; Occhipinti, E; Di Leone, G

2012-01-01

During the last Congress of the International Ergonomics Association (IEA), Beijing, August 2009, an international group was founded aimed at developing a "toolkit for MSD prevention" within IEA and in collaboration with World Health Organization (WHO). Possible users of toolkits are: members of health and safety committees, health and safety representatives, line supervisors; labor inspectors; health workers implementing basic occupational health services; occupational health and safety specialists.According to ISO standard 11228 series and the new Draft CD ISO 12259-2009: Application document guides for the potential user, a computer software ( in Excel®) was create dealing with hazard "mapping" in handicraft The proposed methodology, using specific key enters and quick assessment criteria, allows a simple ergonomics hazard identification and risk estimation. Thus it makes possible to decide for which professional hazards a more exhaustive risk assessment will be necessary and which professional consultant should be involved (occupational physician, safety engineer, industrial hygienist, etc.).

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Percy, Thomas K.; Bright, Ellanee; Torres, Abel O.

2005-01-01

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Assessing nanoparticle risk poses prodigious challenges.

PubMed

MacPhail, Robert C; Grulke, Eric A; Yokel, Robert A

2013-01-01

Risk assessment is used both formally and informally to estimate the likelihood of an adverse event occurring, for example, as a consequence of exposure to a hazardous chemical, drug, or other agent. Formal risk assessments in government regulatory agencies have a long history of practice. The precision with which risk can be estimated is inevitably constrained, however, by uncertainties arising from the lack of pertinent data. Developing accurate risk assessments for nanoparticles and nanoparticle-containing products may present further challenges because of the unique properties of the particles, uncertainties about their composition and the populations exposed to them, and how these may change throughout the particle's life cycle. This review introduces the evolving practice of risk assessment followed by some of the uncertainties that need to be addressed to improve our understanding of nanoparticle risks. Given the clarion call for life-cycle assessments of nanoparticles, an unprecedented degree of national and international coordination between scientific organizations, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders will be required to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Real-Time Safety Risk Assessment Based on a Real-Time Location System for Hydropower Construction Sites

PubMed Central

Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns. PMID:25114958

Real-time safety risk assessment based on a real-time location system for hydropower construction sites.

PubMed

Jiang, Hanchen; Lin, Peng; Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns.

High level waste storage tank farms/242-A evaporator standards/requirements identification document phase 1 assessment corrective actions/compliance schedule approval report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biebesheimer, E.

This document, the Standards/Requirements Identification Document (S/RID) Phase I Assessment Corrective Actions/Compliance Schedule Approval Report for the subject facility, contains the corrective actions required to bring the facility into compliance as a result of an Administrative Assessment to determine whether S/RID requirements are fully addressed by existing policies, plans or procedures. These actions are delineated in the Compliance Schedule Approvals which also contain; noncompliances, risks, compensatory measures, schedules for corrective actions, justifications for approval, and resource impacts.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Pollinator Risk Assessment Guidance

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Guidance is part of a long-term strategy to advance the science of assessing the risks posed by pesticides to honey bees, giving risk managers the means to further improve pollinator protection in our regulatory decisions.

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Treesearch

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

National-scale Assessment of Air Toxics Risks

EPA Science Inventory

The national-scale assessment of air toxics risks is a modeling assessment which combines emission inventory development, atmospheric fate and transport modeling, exposure modeling, and risk assessment to characterize the risk associated with inhaling air toxics from outdoor sour...

A risk assessment approach for fresh fruits.

PubMed

Bassett, J; McClure, P

2008-04-01

To describe the approach used in conducting a fit-for-purpose risk assessment of microbiological human pathogens associated with fresh fruit and the risk management recommendations made. A qualitative risk assessment for microbiological hazards in fresh fruit was carried out based on the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) framework, modified to consider multiple hazards and all fresh (whole) fruits. The assessment determines 14 significant bacterial, viral, protozoal and nematodal hazards associated with fresh produce, assesses the probable level of exposure from fresh fruit, concludes on the risk from each hazard, and considers and recommends risk management actions. A review of potential risk management options allowed the comparison of effectiveness with the potential exposure to each hazard. Washing to a recommended protocol is an appropriate risk management action for the vast majority of consumption events, particularly when good agricultural and hygienic practices are followed and with the addition of refrigerated storage for low acid fruit. Additional safeguards are recommended for aggregate fruits with respect to the risk from protozoa. The potentially complex process of assessing the risks of multiple hazards in multiple but similar commodities can be simplified in a qualitative assessment approach that employs the Codex methodology.

OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of DCM, there are human health concerns for both cancer and non-cancer effects. This DCM assessment of paint stripping uses will focus only on inhalation exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of DCM will be discussed in the assessment. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk

Enhancing Key Competencies of Health Professionals in the Assessment and Care of Adults at Risk of Suicide Through Education and Technology.

PubMed

Ryan, Kathryn; Tindall, Claudia; Strudwick, Gillian

This article describes efforts undertaken to improve the clinical competencies of health professionals in the area of suicide risk assessment, documentation, and care planning. Best practices that fit the mental health and addictions setting were identified from the Registered Nurses' Association of Ontario Best Practice Guideline on Assessment and Care of Adults at Risk for Suicidal Ideation and Behaviour. A variety of methods were used to implement the guidelines at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. These included 3 in-person educational modules, an e-learning module, and the creation of an electronic health record suicide risk assessment documentation form. Results showed that interprofessional team members improved their suicide awareness and increased their confidence and knowledge in suicide risk assessment and the identification of interventions for clients at risk. Organizational level performance and quality improvement activities after implementation of the education and the electronic suicide risk assessment documentation form are being implemented through a collaboration between performance improvement, clinical education and informatics, and professional practice. The success of an interprofessional educational program of this nature is dependent on the collaboration of a number of stakeholders from a variety of areas of the organization.

Risk assessment of toxic heavy metals in the abandoned metal mine areas, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. S.; Chon, H. T.

2003-04-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of adverse health effects on human exposure to toxic heavy metals influenced by past mining activities. Environmental geochemical survey was undertaken in the abandoned metal mine areas (Dongil Au-Ag-Cu-Zn mine, Okdong Cu-Pb-Zn mine, Myungbong Au-Ag mine). After appropriate sample preparation, tailings, soils, crop plants and groundwaters were analyzed for As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn by ICP-AES and ICP-MS. Health risk assessment of toxic heavy metals has been performed with chemical analytical data for environmental media. Arsenic and other heavy metals are highly elevated in the tailings from the Dongil mine (8,720 As mg/kg, 5.9 Cd mg/kg, 3,610 Cu mg/kg, 5,850 Pb mg/kg, 630 Zn mg/kg), but heavy metals except As from the Okdong mine (72 As mg/kg, 53.6 Cd mg/kg, 910 Cu mg/kg, 1,590 Pb mg/kg, 5,720 Zn mg/kg) and only As from the Myungbong mine (5,810 As mg/kg). These significant concentrations can impact on soils and waters around the tailing files. Also, elevated levels of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn are found in agricultural soils from these mine areas. Risk assessment modeling is subdivided into main four stages, i.e. hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity (dose-response) assessment and risk characterization. In order to assess exposure it is necessary to calculate the average daily dose (ADD) of contaminant via the three identified pathways (soil, groundwater and food (rice grain) pathways). In dose-response assessment for non-carcinogens, reference doses (RfD) are calculated and that for carcinogens, slope factors (SF) are obtained by US-EPA IRIS database. In risk characterization, the results of toxicity assessment and exposure assessment are integrated to arrive at quantitative estimates of cancer risks and hazard quotients. Toxic (non-cancer) risks are indicated in terms of a hazard quotient (H.Q.) and this risk exists for H.Q.>1. The H.Q. values for only As from the Dongil and Myungbong mine areas are 2.1 and

New Rodent Population Models May Inform Human Health Risk Assessment and Identification of Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Exposures.

PubMed

Harrill, Alison H; McAllister, Kimberly A

2017-08-15

This paper provides an introduction for environmental health scientists to emerging population-based rodent resources. Mouse reference populations provide an opportunity to model environmental exposures and gene-environment interactions in human disease and to inform human health risk assessment. This review will describe several mouse populations for toxicity assessment, including older models such as the Mouse Diversity Panel (MDP), and newer models that include the Collaborative Cross (CC) and Diversity Outbred (DO) models. This review will outline the features of the MDP, CC, and DO mouse models and will discuss published case studies investigating the use of these mouse population resources in each step of the risk assessment paradigm. These unique resources have the potential to be powerful tools for generating hypotheses related to gene-environment interplay in human disease, performing controlled exposure studies to understand the differential responses in humans for susceptibility or resistance to environmental exposures, and identifying gene variants that influence sensitivity to toxicity and disease states. These new resources offer substantial advances to classical toxicity testing paradigms by including genetically sensitive individuals that may inform toxicity risks for sensitive subpopulations. Both in vivo and complementary in vitro resources provide platforms with which to reduce uncertainty by providing population-level data around biological variability. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1274.

Advantages of new cardiovascular risk-assessment strategies in high-risk patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Ruilope, Luis M; Segura, Julian

2005-10-01

Accurate assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with hypertension is important when planning appropriate treatment of modifiable risk factors. The causes of CVD are multifactorial, and hypertension seldom exists as an isolated risk factor. Classic models of risk assessment are more accurate than a simple counting of risk factors, but they are not generalizable to all populations. In addition, the risk associated with hypertension is graded, continuous, and independent of other risk factors, and this is not reflected in classic models of risk assessment. This article is intended to review both classic and newer models of CVD risk assessment. MEDLINE was searched for articles published between 1990 and 2005 that contained the terms cardiovascular disease, hypertension, or risk assessment. Articles describing major clinical trials, new data about cardiovascular risk, or global risk stratification were selected for review. Some patients at high long-term risk for CVD events (eg, patients aged <50 years with multiple risk factors) may go untreated because they do not meet the absolute risk-intervention threshold of 20% risk over 10 years with the classic model. Recognition of the limitations of classic risk-assessment models led to new guidelines, particularly those of the European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology. These guidelines view hypertension as one of many risk and disease factors that require treatment to decrease risk. These newer guidelines include a more comprehensive range of risk factors and more finely graded blood pressure ranges to stratify patients by degree of risk. Whether they accurately predict CVD risk in most populations is not known. Evidence from the Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation (VALUE) study, which stratified patients by several risk and disease factors, highlights the predictive value of some newer CVD risk assessments. Modern risk assessments, which include blood pressure

Environmental Risk Assessment for a Developing Country like India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Shamsuzzaman; Saha, Indranil

2017-04-01

The developing world is facing an increased risk of accelerating disaster losses. A concrete risk assessment along with subsequent management program involving identification, mitigation and preparedness will assist in rehabilitation and reconstruction once the disaster has struck is critical to subvert the magnitude of the loss incurred. A developing country like India has been taken as an example to highlight the elements mentioned. Most countries like India in the developing world is facing a mounting challenge to promote economic growth and bring down poverty. In this scenario, significant climatic changes will not only impact key economic sectors but also add to the existing conundrum. Sudden onset of natural calamities pose an increasing problem to the developing countries for which risk management strategies need to be forged in order to deal with such hazards. If this is not the case, then a substantial diversion of financial resources to reconstruction in the post disaster phase severely messes up the budget planning process. This compromises economic growth in the long run. Envisaging cost effective mitigation measures to minimize environmental and socio economic toll from natural disasters is the immediate requirement. Often it has been found that an apparent lack of historical data on catastrophic events makes hazard assessment an extremely difficult process. For this it is useful to establish preliminary maps to identify high risk zones and justify the utilization of funds. Vulnerability studies assess the physical, social and economic consequences that result from the occurrence of a severe natural phenomenon. Also they take into account public awareness of risk and the consequent ability to cope with such risks. Risk analysis collates information from hazard assessment and vulnerability studies in the form of an estimation of probable future losses in the face of similar hazards. Promoting different governmental schemes to catastrophe risk absorption

Health risk assessments for alumina refineries.

PubMed

Donoghue, A Michael; Coffey, Patrick S

2014-05-01

To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10(-6). The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries.

Primary care physicians' use of family history for cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Flynn, Brian S; Wood, Marie E; Ashikaga, Takamaru; Stockdale, Alan; Dana, Greg S; Naud, Shelly

2010-06-03

Family history (FH) assessment is useful in identifying and managing patients at increased risk for cancer. This study assessed reported FH quality and associations with physician perceptions. Primary care physicians practicing in two northeastern U.S. states were surveyed (n = 880; 70% response rate). Outcome measures of FH quality were extent of FH taken and ascertaining age at cancer diagnosis for affected family members. Predictors of quality measured in this survey included: perceived advantages and disadvantages of collecting FH information, knowledge of management options, access to supportive resources, and confidence in ability to interpret FH. Reported collection of information regarding second degree blood relatives and age of diagnosis among affected relatives was low. All hypothesized predictors were associated with measures of FH quality, but not all were consistent independent predictors. Perceived advantages of taking a family history, access to supportive resources, and confidence in ability to identify and manage higher risk patients were independent predictors of both FH quality measures. Perceived disadvantages of taking a family history was independently associated one measure of FH quality. Knowledge of management options was not independently associated with either quality measure. Modifiable perception and resource factors were independently associated with quality of FH taking in a large and diverse sample of primary care physicians. Improving FH quality for identification of high risk individuals will require multi-faceted interventions.

Primary care physicians' use of family history for cancer risk assessment

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Family history (FH) assessment is useful in identifying and managing patients at increased risk for cancer. This study assessed reported FH quality and associations with physician perceptions. Methods Primary care physicians practicing in two northeastern U.S. states were surveyed (n = 880; 70% response rate). Outcome measures of FH quality were extent of FH taken and ascertaining age at cancer diagnosis for affected family members. Predictors of quality measured in this survey included: perceived advantages and disadvantages of collecting FH information, knowledge of management options, access to supportive resources, and confidence in ability to interpret FH. Results Reported collection of information regarding second degree blood relatives and age of diagnosis among affected relatives was low. All hypothesized predictors were associated with measures of FH quality, but not all were consistent independent predictors. Perceived advantages of taking a family history, access to supportive resources, and confidence in ability to identify and manage higher risk patients were independent predictors of both FH quality measures. Perceived disadvantages of taking a family history was independently associated one measure of FH quality. Knowledge of management options was not independently associated with either quality measure. Conclusions Modifiable perception and resource factors were independently associated with quality of FH taking in a large and diverse sample of primary care physicians. Improving FH quality for identification of high risk individuals will require multi-faceted interventions. PMID:20525302

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Predictive Analytics for Identification of Patients at Risk for QT Interval Prolongation - A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Tomaselli Muensterman, Elena; Tisdale, James E

2018-06-08

Prolongation of the heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) interval increases the risk for torsades de pointes (TdP), a potentially fatal arrhythmia. The likelihood of TdP is higher in patients with risk factors, which include female sex, older age, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia, concomitant administration of ≥ 2 QTc interval-prolonging medications, among others. Assessment and quantification of risk factors may facilitate prediction of patients at highest risk for developing QTc interval prolongation and TdP. Investigators have utilized the field of predictive analytics, which generates predictions using techniques including data mining, modeling, machine learning, and others, to develop methods of risk quantification and prediction of QTc interval prolongation. Predictive analytics have also been incorporated into clinical decision support (CDS) tools to alert clinicians regarding patients at increased risk of developing QTc interval prolongation. The objectives of this paper are to assess the effectiveness of predictive analytics for identification of patients at risk of drug-induced QTc interval prolongation, and to discuss the efficacy of incorporation of predictive analytics into CDS tools in clinical practice. A systematic review of English language articles (human subjects only) was performed, yielding 57 articles, with an additional 4 articles identified from other sources; a total of 10 articles were included in this review. Risk scores for QTc interval prolongation have been developed in various patient populations including those in cardiac intensive care units (ICUs) and in broader populations of hospitalized or health system patients. One group developed a risk score that includes information regarding genetic polymorphisms; this score significantly predicted TdP. Development of QTc interval prolongation risk prediction models and incorporation of these models into CDS tools reduces the risk of QTc interval

[Risk assessment for food preparation, cooking and service].

PubMed

Cottica, Danilo; Grignani, Elena

2014-01-01

The restaurant and food preparation, cooking and distribution sector includes hotels, restaurants, catering, fast food, ecc. The restaurant and food preparation, cooking and distribution sector form a significant part of the Italian economy; they provide employment for a large number of people, both direct employees as well as part-time and contract staff. In this sector there are many hazards that can lead to a broad range of injuries and/or diseases to the workers. For the safety these hazards principally are slick floors, open flames, high temperature cooking surfaces, steam, knives and other cutting instruments and machineries. For the health: cleaning and disinfecting chemicals substances, cooking fumes and vapors, biological agents, heavy loads handling, thermal comfort, ecc. The paper presents an overview of the hazards in the sector and then make a focus on chemical risks identification and assessment to evaluate the workers' exposure (by skin adsorption and inhalation).

Fall risk assessment and prevention.

PubMed

Kline, Nancy E; Davis, Mary Elizabeth; Thom, Bridgette

2011-02-01

Patient falls are a common cause of morbidity and are the leading cause of injury deaths in adults age 65 years and older. Injuries sustained as result of falls in a cancer hospital are often severe, regardless of patient age, due to the nature of the underlying cancer. Falls are a nursing-sensitive indicator and nurses are in a unique position to assess, design, implement, and evaluate programs for fall risk reduction. We analyzed our nursing processes related to falls and fall prevention in conjunction with an evidence-based review, a research study to improve our fall risk-assessment process, and development of a comprehensive fall-reduction program. This article outlines how our institution developed a fall risk assessment for the oncology patient population, and utilized this assessment in a comprehensive nursing approach to fall prevention in both inpatient and outpatient settings.

Identification and treatment of aggressive thyroid cancers. Part 2: risk assessment and treatment.

PubMed

Sturgeon, Cord; Angelos, Peter

2006-04-01

Most thyroid cancers are slow-growing, easily treatable tumors with an excellent prognosis after surgical resection and targeted medical therapy. Unfortunately, 10% to 15% of thyroid cancers exhibit aggressive behavior and do not follow an indolent course. Approximately one-third of patients with differentiated thyroid cancers will have tumor recurrences. Distant metastases are present in about 20% of patients with recurrent cancer. Approximately half of patients with distant metastases die within 5 years. The loss of the ability to concentrate radio-iodine and produce thyroglobulin is a sign of dedifferentiation, which occurs in about 30% of patients with persistent or recurrent thyroid cancer. Dedifferentiation is associated with poorer responses to conventional therapy and difficulty monitoring tumor burden. Clinicians must identify tumors with more aggressive biology and treat them accordingly with more aggressive regimens. Part 1 of this two-part article, which appeared in March, described in detail the distinct types of thyroid cancer, as well as risk factors, outcomes, treatment, and prognostic factors, with a focus on thyroid cancers of follicular cell origin. Part 2 covers risk assessment and staging, findings that suggest the presence of aggressive tumors, recurrent/metastatic disease, and treatment with chemotherapy and external-beam radiotherapy. Experimental treatments utilizing molecular targets, redifferentiation agents, and gene therapy are covered briefly as well.