Sample records for identified climate change
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Lemieux, Christopher J; Scott, Daniel J
2011-10-01
Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemieux, Christopher J.; Scott, Daniel J.
2011-10-01
Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.
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Identifying appropriate protected areas for endangered fern species under climate change.
Wang, Chun-Jing; Wan, Ji-Zhong; Zhang, Zhi-Xiang; Zhang, Gang-Min
2016-01-01
The management of protected areas (PAs) is widely used in the conservation of endangered plant species under climate change. However, studies that have identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species are rare. To address this gap, we must develop a workflow to plan appropriate PAs for endangered fern species that will be further impacted by climate change. Here, we used endangered fern species in China as a case study, and we applied conservation planning software coupled with endangered fern species distribution data and distribution modeling to plan conservation areas with high priority protection needs under climate change. We identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species under climate change based on the IUCN protected area categories (from Ia to VI) and planned additional PAs for endangered fern species. The high priority regions for protecting the endangered fern species were distributed throughout southern China. With decreasing temperature seasonality, the priority ranking of all endangered fern species is projected to increase in existing PAs. Accordingly, we need to establish conservation areas with low climate vulnerability in existing PAs and expand the conservation areas for endangered fern species in the high priority conservation regions.
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The challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Maccracken, Michael C.
1992-01-01
Meeting the challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change involves three steps. First, observations of critical variables must be assembled, evaluated, and analyzed to determine that there has been a statistically significant change. Second, reliable theoretical (model) calculations must be conducted to provide a definitive set of changes for which to search. Third, a quantitative and statistically significant association must be made between the projected and observed changes to exclude the possibility that the changes are due to natural variability or other factors. This paper provides a qualitative overview of scientific progress in successfully fulfilling these three steps.
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Carroll, Carlos; Roberts, David R; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Nielsen, Scott E; Stralberg, Diana; Hamann, Andreas; Mcrae, Brad H; Wang, Tongli
2017-11-01
As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at
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Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.
Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas
2015-01-01
Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and
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Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas
2015-01-01
Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating
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Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation
Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.
Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.
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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation
Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088
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Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon.
Oberle, Brad; Schaal, Barbara A
2011-04-05
Anthropogenic climate change may threaten many species with extinction. However, species at risk today survived global climate change in recent geological history. Describing how habitat tracking and adaptation allowed species to survive warming since the end of the Pleistocene can indicate the relative importance of dispersal and natural selection during climate change. By taking this historical perspective, we can identify how contemporary climate change could interfere with these mechanisms and threaten the most vulnerable species. We focused on a group of closely related plant species in the genus Dodecatheon (Primulaceae) in eastern North America. Two rare species (Dodecatheon amethystinum and Dodecatheon frenchii) that are endemic to patchy cool cliffs may be glacial relicts whose ranges constricted following the last glacial maximum. Alternatively, these species may be extreme ecotypes of a single widespread species (Dodecatheon meadia) that quickly adapted to microclimatic differences among habitats. We test support for these alternative scenarios by combining ecophysiological and population genetic data at a regional scale. An important ecophysiological trait distinguishes rare species from D. meadia, but only a few northern populations of D. amethystinum are genetically distinctive. These relict populations indicate that habitat tracking did occur with historical climate change. However, relatively stronger evidence for isolation by distance and admixture suggests that local adaptation and genetic introgression have been at least as important. The complex response of Dodecatheon to historical climate change suggests that contemporary conservation efforts should accommodate evolutionary processes, in some cases by restoring genetic connectivity between ecologically differentiated populations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ryan, J. G.; Feldman, A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.; Stone, D.; Plank, L.; Reynolds, C. J.
2011-12-01
Many past educational initiatives focused on global climate change have foundered on public skepticism and disbelief. Some key reasons for these past failures can be drawn directly from recognized best practices in STEM education - specifically, the necessity to help learners connect new knowledge with their own experiences and perspectives, and the need to create linkages with issues or concerns that are both important for and relevant to the audiences to be educated. The Coastal Areas Climate Change Education (CACCE) partnership has sought to follow these tenets as guiding principles in identifying critical audiences and developing new strategies for educating the public living in the low-lying coastal areas of Florida and the Caribbean on the realities, risks, and adaptation and mitigation strategies for dealing with the regional impacts of global climate change. CACCE is currently focused on three key learner audiences: a) The formal education spectrum, targeting K-12 curricula through middle school marine science courses, and student and educator audiences through coursework and participatory research strategies engaging participants in a range of climate-related investigations. b) Informal science educators and outlets, in particular aquaria and nature centers, as an avenue toward K-12 teacher professional development as well as for public education. c) Regional planning, regulatory and business professionals focused on the built environment along the coasts, many of whom require continuing education to maintain licensing and/or other professional certifications. Our current activities are focused on bringing together an effective set of educational, public- and private-sector partners to target the varied needs of these audiences in Florida and the U.S. Caribbean, and tailoring an educational plan aimed at these stakeholder audiences that starts with the regionally and topically relevant impacts of climate change, and strategies for effective adaptation and
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tayne, K.
2015-12-01
As K12 teachers seek ways to provide meaningful learning opportunities for students to understand climate change, they often face barriers to teaching about climate and/or lack relevant resources on the topic. In an effort to better understand how to support K12 teachers in this role, a survey about "teaching climate change" was created and distributed. The results of the 2015 survey are presented, based on more than 200 teacher responses. Respondents included National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) members, 2015 STEM Teacher and Researcher (STAR) Fellows and science teachers from several U.S. school districts. The survey identifies teachers' perceived barriers to teaching climate change, for example difficulty integrating climate change concepts into specific core courses (i.e., biology), as well as desired classroom resources, such as climate change project-based learning (PBL) units that connect to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Survey results also indicate possible pathways for federal agencies, non-profits, universities and other organizations to have a more significant impact on climate literacy in the classroom. In response to the survey results, a comprehensive guide is being created to teach climate change in K12 classrooms, addressing barriers and providing resources for teachers. For example, in the survey, some teachers indicated that they lacked confidence in their content knowledge and understanding of climate change, so this guide provides web-based resources to help further an educator's understanding of climate change, as well as opportunities for relevant online and in-person professional development. In this quest for desired resources to teach climate change, gaps in accessible and available online resources are being identified. Information about these "gaps" may help organizations that strive to support climate literacy in the classroom better serve teachers.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Azhoni, A.; Goyal, M. K.
2017-12-01
Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact subsistence agriculture. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers and perspectives of consultants and researchers which are expected to be implemented by development agencies farmers in the state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the framing and implementation of State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the State Government, Scientific Organisations, consultants, local academia, implementing and development agencies, and farmers for whom the adaptation strategies are targeted. Using Social Network and Stakeholder Analysis approach, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying adaptation strategies, and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for their subsistence livelihood, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them an access to new and high value crops. Although important steps are initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and identifying the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will likely to pay rich dividends. While Sikkim being a small and hilly state with specific contextual challenges of climate change impacts, the results from this study highlights how the internal and external networks between various types of stakeholders informs decision makers in identifying local impacts of climate change and plan adaptation strategies.
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Cronin, Thomas M.
2016-01-01
Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.
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Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers
Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.
2016-01-01
Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.
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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...
The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for
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Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M
2013-01-01
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can
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Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.
2013-01-01
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability
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Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions
Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.
2016-01-01
Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545
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Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation
Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger
2016-01-01
Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...
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Being Prepared for Climate Change: Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks, from Step 3
The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook is a guide for constructing a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. These checklists (from Step 3 of the workbook) help users identify risks.
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Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana
2012-01-01
Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing
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Winter color polymorphisms identify global hot spots for evolutionary rescue from climate change.
Mills, L Scott; Bragina, Eugenia V; Kumar, Alexander V; Zimova, Marketa; Lafferty, Diana J R; Feltner, Jennifer; Davis, Brandon M; Hackländer, Klaus; Alves, Paulo C; Good, Jeffrey M; Melo-Ferreira, José; Dietz, Andreas; Abramov, Alexei V; Lopatina, Natalia; Fay, Kairsten
2018-03-02
Maintenance of biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate will depend on the efficacy of evolutionary rescue, whereby population declines due to abrupt environmental change are reversed by shifts in genetically driven adaptive traits. However, a lack of traits known to be under direct selection by anthropogenic climate change has limited the incorporation of evolutionary processes into global conservation efforts. In 21 vertebrate species, some individuals undergo a seasonal color molt from summer brown to winter white as camouflage against snow, whereas other individuals remain brown. Seasonal snow duration is decreasing globally, and fitness is lower for winter white animals on snowless backgrounds. Based on 2713 georeferenced samples of known winter coat color-from eight species across trophic levels-we identify environmentally driven clinal gradients in winter coat color, including polymorphic zones where winter brown and white morphs co-occur. These polymorphic zones, underrepresented by existing global protected area networks, indicate hot spots for evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Myers, J; Young, T; Galloway, M; Manyike, P; Tucker, T
2011-11-01
Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse impacts on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as given. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural and their relation to the burden of disease pattern typical of sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The model provides a tool for identifying modifiable risk factors with a view to future research, specifically into the performance of interventions to reduce the impact of climate change.
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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation
The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...
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Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.
2011-12-01
The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.
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Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Romanou, Anastasia; Marshall, John
2015-01-01
Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.
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How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.
2013-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836
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How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J
2013-01-07
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.
2013-12-01
A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.
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NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.
2008-12-01
Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth
2015-04-01
Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system
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Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.
2009-12-01
The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long
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Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anber, U.
2009-04-01
Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual
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Climate change and ecological public health.
Goodman, Benny
2015-02-17
Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.
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Connectivity planning to address climate change.
Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J
2013-04-01
As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.
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Assessing species vulnerability to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo
2015-03-01
The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.
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Azhoni, Adani; Goyal, Manish Kumar
2018-06-01
Narrowing the gap between research, policy making and implementing adaptation remains a challenge in many parts of the world where climate change is likely to severely impact water security. This research aims to narrow this gap by matching the adaptation strategies being framed by policy makers to that of the perspectives of development agencies, researchers and farmers in the Himalayan state of Sikkim in India. Our case study examined the perspectives of various stakeholders for climate change impacts, current adaptation strategies, knowledge gaps and adaptation barriers, particularly in the context of implementing the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change through semi-structured interviews carried out with decision makers in the Sikkim State Government, researchers, consultants, local academia, development agencies and farmers. Using Stakeholders Network Analysis tools, this research unravels the complexities of perceiving climate change impacts, identifying strategies, and implementing adaptation. While farmers are less aware about the global phenomenon of climate change impacts for water security, their knowledge of the local conditions and their close interaction with the State Government Agriculture Department provides them opportunities. Although important steps are being initiated through the Sikkim State Action Plan on Climate Change it is yet to deliver effective means of adaptation implementation and hence, strengthening the networks of close coordination between the various implementing agencies will pay dividends. Knowledge gaps and the need for capacity building identified in this research, based on the understandings of key stakeholders are highly relevant to both the research community and for informing policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Identifying bird and reptile vulnerabilities to climate change in the southwestern United States
Hatten, James R.; Giermakowski, J. Tomasz; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Nowak, Erika M.; Johnson, Matthew J.; Ironside, Kirsten E.; van Riper, Charles; Peters, Michael; Truettner, Charles; Cole, Kenneth L.
2016-07-06
Current and future breeding ranges of 15 bird and 16 reptile species were modeled in the Southwestern United States. Rather than taking a broad-scale, vulnerability-assessment approach, we created a species distribution model (SDM) for each focal species incorporating climatic, landscape, and plant variables. Baseline climate (1940–2009) was characterized with Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data and future climate with global-circulation-model data under an A1B emission scenario. Climatic variables included monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation; landscape variables included terrain ruggedness, soil type, and insolation; and plant variables included trees and shrubs commonly associated with a focal species. Not all species-distribution models contained a plant, but if they did, we included a built-in annual migration rate for more accurate plant-range projections in 2039 or 2099. We conducted a group meta-analysis to (1) determine how influential each variable class was when averaged across all species distribution models (birds or reptiles), and (2) identify the correlation among contemporary (2009) habitat fragmentation and biological attributes and future range projections (2039 or 2099). Projected changes in bird and reptile ranges varied widely among species, with one-third of the ranges predicted to expand and two-thirds predicted to contract. A group meta-analysis indicated that climatic variables were the most influential variable class when averaged across all models for both groups, followed by landscape and plant variables (birds), or plant and landscape variables (reptiles), respectively. The second part of the meta-analysis indicated that numerous contemporary habitat-fragmentation (for example, patch isolation) and biological-attribute (for example, clutch size, longevity) variables were significantly correlated with the magnitude of projected range changes for birds and reptiles. Patch isolation was
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guido, Z. S.; McIntosh, J. C.; Papuga, S. A.
2010-12-01
greatest climate change risk to water supply. Identifying the key climate vulnerability will inform effective adaptation and water management policies, which may include increasing the watersheds capacity to capture and divert wet season precipitation. It will also inform future research, which may involve age dating water, developing local adaptation plans, and improving climate and streamflow monitoring.
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Lakes as sentinels of climate change
Adrian, Rita; O’Reilly, Catherine M.; Zagarese, Horacio; Baines, Stephen B.; Hessen, Dag O.; Keller, Wendel; Livingstone, David M.; Sommaruga, Ruben; Straile, Dietmar; Van Donk, Ellen; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Winder, Monika
2010-01-01
While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. PMID:20396409
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Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment ...
This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes. The analyses suggest that several biological indicators may be used to detect climate change effects and such indicators can be used by state bioassessment programs to document changes at high-quality reference sites. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes.
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Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.
Chadwick, Amy E
2016-01-01
Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.
2015-12-01
As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.
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Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions
Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan
2015-01-01
Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357
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Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.
Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan
2015-01-01
Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.
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Climate change and children's health.
Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S
2011-04-01
To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.
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Adapting agriculture to climate change: a review
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Liu, De Li; Macadam, Ian; Kelly, Georgina
2013-07-01
The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to future climate changes and climate variability, including increases in the incidence of extreme climate events. Changes in temperature and precipitation will result in changes in land and water regimes that will subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Given the gradual change of climate in the past, historically, farmers have adapted in an autonomous manner. However, with large and discrete climate change anticipated by the end of this century, planned and transformational changes will be needed. In light of these, the focus of this review is on farm-level and farmers responses to the challenges of climate change both spatially and over time. In this review of adapting agriculture to climate change, the nature, extent, and causes of climate change are analyzed and assessed. These provide the context for adapting agriculture to climate change. The review identifies the binding constraints to adaptation at the farm level. Four major priority areas are identified to relax these constraints, where new initiatives would be required, i.e., information generation and dissemination to enhance farm-level awareness, research and development (R&D) in agricultural technology, policy formulation that facilitates appropriate adaptation at the farm level, and strengthening partnerships among the relevant stakeholders. Forging partnerships among R&D providers, policy makers, extension agencies, and farmers would be at the heart of transformational adaptation to climate change at the farm level. In effecting this transformational change, sustained efforts would be needed for the attendant requirements of climate and weather forecasting and innovation, farmer's training, and further research to improve the quality of information, invention, and application in agriculture. The investment required for these would be highly significant. The review suggests a sequenced approach through grouping research initiatives into short
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The climate change and energy security nexus
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
King, Marcus Dubois; Gulledge, Jay
2013-01-01
The study of the impacts of climate change on national and interna-tional security has grown as a research field, particularly in the last five years. Within this broad field, academic scholarship has concentrated primarily on whether climate change is, or may become, a driver of violent conflict. This relationship remains highly contested. However, national security policy and many non-governmental organizations have identified climate change as a threat multiplier in conflict situations. The U.S. Department of Defense and the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense have incorporated these findings into strategic planning documents such as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Strategicmore » Defence and Security Review. In contrast to the climate-conflict nexus, our analysis found that academic scholarship on the climate change and energy security nexus is small and more disciplinarily focused. In fact, a search of social science litera-ture found few sources, with a significant percentage of these works attribut-able to a single journal. Assuming that policymakers are more likely to rely on broader social science literature than technical or scientific journals, this leaves a limited foundation. This then begged the question: what are these sources? We identified a body of grey literature on the nexus of climate change and energy security of a greater size than the body of peer-reviewed social science literature. We reviewed fifty-eight recent reports, issue briefs, and transcripts to better understand the nexus of climate change and energy security, as well as to gain insight about the questions policymakers need answered by those undertaking the research. In this article, we describe the nature of the sources reviewed, highlight possible climate change and energy security linkages found within those sources, identify emerging risks, and offer conclusions that can guide further research.« less
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Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans
Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.
2016-01-01
Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801
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Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.
Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S
2016-04-21
Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.
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Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.
Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A
2013-12-01
Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC
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... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...
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Biological invasions, climate change and genomics
Chown, Steven L; Hodgins, Kathryn A; Griffin, Philippa C; Oakeshott, John G; Byrne, Margaret; Hoffmann, Ary A
2015-01-01
The rate of biological invasions is expected to increase as the effects of climate change on biological communities become widespread. Climate change enhances habitat disturbance which facilitates the establishment of invasive species, which in turn provides opportunities for hybridization and introgression. These effects influence local biodiversity that can be tracked through genetic and genomic approaches. Metabarcoding and metagenomic approaches provide a way of monitoring some types of communities under climate change for the appearance of invasives. Introgression and hybridization can be followed by the analysis of entire genomes so that rapidly changing areas of the genome are identified and instances of genetic pollution monitored. Genomic markers enable accurate tracking of invasive species’ geographic origin well beyond what was previously possible. New genomic tools are promoting fresh insights into classic questions about invading organisms under climate change, such as the role of genetic variation, local adaptation and climate pre-adaptation in successful invasions. These tools are providing managers with often more effective means to identify potential threats, improve surveillance and assess impacts on communities. We provide a framework for the application of genomic techniques within a management context and also indicate some important limitations in what can be achieved. PMID:25667601
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Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2009-01-01
To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...
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Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology
Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J
2011-01-01
Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.
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Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions
Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks
2016-01-01
Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...
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Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.
2014-12-01
Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy
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Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.
2014-01-01
Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.
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Using biological data to test climate change refugia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morelli, T. L.; Maher, S. P.
2015-12-01
The concept of refugia has been discussed from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to address how populations persisted during periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, several studies have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify locations that are buffered from climate change effects so as to favor greater persistence of valued resources relative to other areas. Refugia are now being discussed among natural resource agencies as a potential adaptation option in the face of anthropogenic climate change. Using downscaled climate data, we identified hypothetical refugial meadows in the Sierra Nevada and then tested them using survey and genetic data from Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi) populations. We predicted that refugial meadows would show higher genetic diversity, higher rates of occupancy and lower rates of extirpation over time. At each step of the research, we worked with managers to ensure the largest impact. Although no panacea, identifying climate change refugia could be an important strategy for prioritizing habitats for management intervention in order to conserve populations. This research was supported by the California LCC, the Northeast Climate Science Center, and NSF.
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Connectivity planning to address climate change
Tristan A. Nuñez; Joshua J. Lawler; Brad H. McRae; D. John Pierce; Meade B. Krosby; Darren M. Kavanagh; Peter H. Singleton; Joshua J. Tewksbury
2013-01-01
As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad...
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Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.
Hoffmann, Ary A; Sgrò, Carla M
2011-02-24
Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.
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Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Womeldorff, P.J.
1995-12-31
This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.
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Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.
Bonan, Gordon B
2008-06-13
The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.
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Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo
2012-01-10
We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.
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Mangrove ecosystems under climate change
Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.
2017-01-01
This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Özdem, Yasemin; Dal, Burçkin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu; Alper, Umut
2014-01-01
This paper presents findings from research on students' general environmental concerns, experiences, beliefs, attitudes, worldviews, values, and actions relating to climate change. Data was gathered from a sample of 646 seventh-grade students. The findings indicate that students identify climate change as a consequence of modern life. They…
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Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tam, A.; Jain, M.
2016-12-01
This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.
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America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.
2010-12-01
At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify
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Skinner, James A.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Platz, Thomas
2014-01-01
Consistently mappable units critical to distinguishing the style and interplay of geologic processes through time are sparse in the Martian lowlands. This study identifies a previously unmapped Middle Amazonian (ca. 1 Ga) unit (Middle Amazonian lowland unit, mAl) that postdates the Late Hesperian and Early Amazonian lowland plains by >2 b.y. The unit is regionally defined by subtle marginal scarps and slopes, has a mean thickness of 32 m, and extends >3.1 × 106 km2 between lat 35°N and 80°N. Pedestal-type craterforms and nested, arcuate ridges (thumbprint terrain) tend to occur adjacent to unit mAl outcrops, suggesting that current outcrops are vestiges of a more extensive deposit that previously covered ∼16 × 106 km2. Exposed layers, surface pits, and the draping of subjacent landforms allude to a sedimentary origin, perhaps as a loess-like deposit emplaced rhythmically through atmospheric fallout. We propose that unit mAl accumulated coevally with, and at the expense of, the erosion of the north polar basal units, identifying a major episode of Middle Amazonian climate-driven sedimentation in the lowlands. This work links ancient sedimentary processes to climate change that occurred well before those implied by current orbital and spin axis models.
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Indigenous Health and Climate Change
2012-01-01
Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global–local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research. PMID:22594718
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Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers
Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.
2017-01-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.
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Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.
Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T
2017-07-01
Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos
2017-12-01
Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.
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Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects
2006-02-10
unrelated to climate change per se. This report does not address the underlying question of climate change itself. Rather, it identifies the array of...climate-relevant human health research and discusses the interconnections. Approximately $57 million each year since FY2005 supports climate change research...infectious diseases. Three conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change : the infirm, the elderly, and the poor
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Performance testing to identify climate-ready trees
E.Gregory McPherson; Alison M. Berry; Natalie S. van Doorn
2018-01-01
Urban forests produce ecosystem services that can benefit city dwellers, but are especially vulnerable to climate change stressors such as heat, drought, extreme winds and pests. Tree selection is an important decision point for managers wanting to transition to a more stable and resilient urban forest structure. This study describes a five-step process to identify and...
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Classification of climate-change-induced stresses on biological diversity.
Geyer, Juliane; Kiefer, Iris; Kreft, Stefan; Chavez, Veronica; Salafsky, Nick; Jeltsch, Florian; Ibisch, Pierre L
2011-08-01
Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.
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Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change
Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John
2011-01-01
Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069
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Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.
2014-01-01
Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.
1998-03-01
There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized
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Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nyarko, B. K.
2013-12-01
The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and
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Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien
2014-01-01
Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers’ adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs. PMID:25225382
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Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien
2014-09-23
Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.
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Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.
2014-12-01
Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.
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Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.
Sakellari, Maria
2015-10-01
Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.
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Climate change : expert opinion on the economics of policy options to address climate change
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2008-05-01
Panelists identified key strengths and limitations of alternative policy approaches that should be of assistance to the Congress in weighing the potential benefits and costs of different policies for addressing climate change. Many panelists said tha...
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Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change
Tong, Shilu; Mather, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; McRae, David; Verrall, Ken; Walker, Dylan
2010-01-01
There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. PMID:20616990
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Advancing Climate Change and Impacts Science Through Climate Informatics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenhardt, W.; Pouchard, L. C.; King, A. W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Kao, S.; Wang, D.
2010-12-01
This poster will outline the work to date on developing a climate informatics capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The central proposition of this effort is that the application of informatics and information science to the domain of climate change science is an essential means to bridge the realm of high performance computing (HPC) and domain science. The goal is to facilitate knowledge capture and the creation of new scientific insights. For example, a climate informatics capability will help with the understanding and use of model results in domain sciences that were not originally in the scope. From there, HPC can also benefit from feedback as the new approaches may lead to better parameterization in the models. In this poster we will summarize the challenges associated with climate change science that can benefit from the systematic application of informatics and we will highlight our work to date in creating the climate informatics capability to address these types of challenges. We have identified three areas that are particularly challenging in the context of climate change science: 1) integrating model and observational data across different spatial and temporal scales, 2) model linkages, i.e. climate models linked to other models such as hydrologic models, and 3) model diagnostics. Each of these has a methodological component and an informatics component. Our project under way at ORNL seeks to develop new approaches and tools in the context of linking climate change and water issues. We are basing our work on the following four use cases: 1) Evaluation/test of CCSM4 biases in hydrology (precipitation, soil water, runoff, river discharge) over the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate modeler. 2) Investigation of projected changes in hydrology of Rio Grande Basin using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale) Hydrologic Model. User: watershed hydrologist/modeler. 3) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of the Rio Grande
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains
Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson
2017-01-01
The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...
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Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.
2012-12-01
Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.
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Responses of large mammals to climate change.
Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan
2014-01-01
Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.
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Responses of large mammals to climate change
Hetem, Robyn S; Fuller, Andrea; Maloney, Shane K; Mitchell, Duncan
2014-01-01
Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change. PMID:27583293
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Global climate change: Social and economic research issues
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H.
This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussionsmore » may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.« less
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Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holmberg, Marjorie O.
2010-01-01
This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…
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Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.
Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin
2010-01-01
The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here
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Patricia R. Butler; Leslie A. Brandt; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Patricia D. Shannon; Chris W. Swanston
2014-01-01
The Central Hardwood region contains a mosaic of forests, woodlands, savannas, and other ecosystems that will increasingly be affected by a changing climate over the next century. Understanding potential impacts is important to sustaining healthy forests under changing conditions. The objectives of the Climate Change Response Framework (forestadaptation.org) are to...
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Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donnelly, Alison
2018-03-01
A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.
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Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.
Donnelly, Alison
2018-03-12
A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.
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Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;
2011-01-01
Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schneider, Stephen H.
1989-01-01
Discusses the global change of climate. Presents the trend of climate change with graphs. Describes mathematical climate models including expressions for the interacting components of the ocean-atmosphere system and equations representing the basic physical laws governing their behavior. Provides three possible responses on the change. (YP)
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Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.
2012-01-01
Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.
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Vegetation zones in changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava
2017-04-01
Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.
2012-12-01
A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data
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Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.
Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T
2015-12-01
Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
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Common Ground on Climate Change: Pairing Opposing Viewpoints for Conversations about Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirk, K. B.; Duggan-Haas, D.; Hayhoe, K.
2017-12-01
In American public discourse, people tend to strongly identify with the viewpoints held by their cultural and political tribes. However, entrenched positions do little to advance understanding, or work toward solving problems constructively. Worse yet, it has become commonplace to dismiss or demonize those coming from a different point of view - leading to the vitriolic stalemate that often characterizes social media and comment threads when it comes to climate change. One way to break this pattern is to invite people with opposing opinions to actually talk to one another. This presentation describes the lessons learned during the Common Ground on Climate Change project, in which people with contrasting views about climate change engage in a moderated interview with each other. Prior to the interview, participants complete a set of values-based questions. The goal is to reveal areas of common ground between apparent opposites, such as a sense of stewardship for Earth's resources, or an opinion that solutions to climate change will be more beneficial than harmful. The structure of the interviews is based on the hypothesis that if a conversation begins with an appreciation of common values, it becomes easier to broach areas of disagreement. Participants are matched up in one-on-one moderated interviews where they are encouraged to share their concerns, ideas, and priorities about the validity of climate science, the need for urgent action, and the types of solutions they find most tenable. Emerging themes from this series of interviews include the value of a diversity of outlooks, and the ability for moderated conversations to find surprising areas of agreement. Articles about the interviews also appear on the Yale Climate Connections website, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/author/karin/.
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The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?
Heffernan, Claire
2013-12-01
Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.
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Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli
2017-08-01
The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.
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Climate Change Schools Project...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McKinzey, Krista
2010-01-01
This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.
2017-12-01
Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be
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Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.
2007-12-01
The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.
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Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...
2017-07-21
Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.
Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.
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Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.
Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W
2017-09-01
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for
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How Five Master Teachers Teach about Climate Chang
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bloch, L.
2015-12-01
The AGU Position Statement, "Human-Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action," calls on scientists to "[work] with stakeholders to identify relevant information, and [to convey] understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public". Everyday, K-12 teachers communicate with an important segment of the general public, and they represent important stakeholders with unique needs. The terms 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', and 'climate change' appear nowhere in the 1996 National Science Education Standards, but under the Next Generation Science Standards, millions of teachers- most of whom have little to no experience teaching about climate change- will be required to cover the topic. This presentation discusses research conducted with five veteran public school teachers, each of whom has been teaching about climate change for many years. The group comprises three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. The study examined: 1) What these teachers teach about climate change; 2) How they teach about climate change; 3) What resources they use in teaching and learning about climate change; and 4) How they think the scientific community can support teachers in their efforts to teach about climate change. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they all said that the academic community can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Scientists working with K-12 teachers can build on the work of these master teachers, and attendees can access detailed descriptions of all of the lessons and the associated learning materials.
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U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pulwarty, R.
2009-12-01
Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The
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Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
2016-05-01
A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weihs, R. R.
2013-12-01
A variety of Florida-focused climate change activities will be featured as part of the ASK Florida global and regional climate change professional development workshops. In a combined effort from Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) and University of South Florida's Coalition for Science Literacy (CSL), and supported by NASA's NICE initiative, the ASK Florida professional development workshops are a series of workshops designed to enhance and support climate change information and related pedagogical skills for middle school science teachers from Title-I schools in Florida. These workshops took place during a two-year period from 2011 to 2013 and consisted of two cohorts in Hillsborough and Volusia counties in Florida. Featured activities include lab-style exercises demonstrating topics such as storm surge and coastal geometry, sea level rise from thermal expansion, and the greenhouse effect. These types of labs are modified so that they allow more independent, inquiry thinking as they require teachers to design their own experiment in order to test a hypothesis. Lecture based activities are used to cover a broad range of topics including hurricanes, climate modeling, and sink holes. The more innovative activities are group activities that utilize roll-playing, technology and resources, and group discussion. For example, 'Climate Gallery Walk' is an activity that features group discussions on each of the climate literacy principles established by the United States Global Change Research Program. By observing discussions between individuals and groups, this activity helps the facilitators gather information on their previous knowledge and identify possible misconceptions that will be addressed within the workshops. Furthermore, 'Fact or Misconception' presents the challenge of identifying whether a given statement is fact or misconception based on the material covered throughout the workshops. It serves as a way to
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Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.
Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie
2018-02-01
International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List
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Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.
Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly
2010-06-01
Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.
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Climate Change Workgroup Reports and Presentations
Climate Change Workgroup reports and presentations to discuss and identify the major issues and potential barriers to implementing the Prevention of Significant Deterioration program under the Clean Air Act for greenhouse gases.
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Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya
2015-01-01
Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maynard, J. A.; Marshall, P. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Harman, S.
2010-06-01
Climate change is now considered the greatest long-term threat to coral reefs, with some future change inevitable despite mitigation efforts. Managers must therefore focus on supporting the natural resilience of reefs, requiring that resilient reefs and reef regions be identified. We develop a framework for assessing resilience and trial it by applying the framework to target management responses to climate change on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The framework generates a resilience score for a site based on the evaluation of 19 differentially weighted indicators known or thought to confer resilience to coral reefs. Scores are summed, and sites within a region are ranked in terms of (1) their resilience relative to the other sites being assessed, and (2) the extent to which managers can influence their resilience. The framework was applied to 31 sites in Keppel Bay of the southern Great Barrier Reef, which has a long history of disturbance and recovery. Resilience and ‘management influence potential’ were both found to vary widely in Keppel Bay, informing site selection for the staged implementation of resilience-based management strategies. The assessment framework represents a step towards making the concept of resilience operational to reef managers and conservationists. Also, it is customisable, easy to teach and implement and effective in building support among local communities and stakeholders for management responses to climate change.
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Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bain, Paul G.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Bongiorno, Renata; Jeffries, Carla
2012-08-01
A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of `conversion' using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N=155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (N=347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers' pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.
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Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D
2013-10-01
Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.
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Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.
2013-01-01
Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020
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Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nyarko, B. K.
2015-12-01
The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.
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A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.
Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin
2015-01-14
Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.
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Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.
Urban, Mark C
2015-05-01
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nadal, Martí, E-mail: marti.nadal@urv.cat; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse
In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attentionmore » should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective.« less
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Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts
Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda
2014-01-01
Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050
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Linda A. Joyce
2008-01-01
The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...
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Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.
2015-07-01
Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.
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Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.
Ribeiro, Bruno R; Sales, Lilian P; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael
2016-01-01
Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.
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Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon
Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael
2016-01-01
Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036
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Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.
2013-06-28
Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less
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Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change
Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E
2012-01-01
Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025
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Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.
2013-05-01
Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.
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IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J.; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary
2017-01-01
The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.
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Communicating Urban Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership
2011-12-01
While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lewis, Jim
This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…
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Climate change and skin disease.
Lundgren, Ashley D
2018-04-01
Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.
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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.
Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L
2006-02-01
Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.
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Integrating Climate Change into Great Lakes Protection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hedman, S.
2012-12-01
Climate change is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to the Great Lakes. Projected climate change impacts to the Great Lakes include increases in surface water and air temperature; decreases in ice cover; shorter winters, early spring, and longer summers; increased frequency of intense storms; more precipitation falling as rain in the winter; less snowfall; and variations in water levels, among other effects. Changing climate conditions may compromise efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes ecosystem and may lead to irrevocable impacts on the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of the Great Lakes. Examples of such potential impacts include the transformation of coastal wetlands into terrestrial ecosystems; reduced fisheries; increased beach erosion; change in forest species composition as species migrate northward; potential increase in toxic substance concentrations; potential increases in the frequency and extent of algal blooms; degraded water quality; and a potential increase in invasive species. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, signed into law by President Obama in 2010, represents the commitment of the federal government to protect, restore, and maintain the Great Lakes ecosystem. The GLRI Action Plan, issued in February 2010, identifies five focus areas: - Toxic Substances and Areas of Concern - Invasive Species - Nearshore Health and Nonpoint Source Pollution - Habitat and Wildlife Protection and Restoration - Accountability, Education, Monitoring, Evaluation, Communication, and Partnerships The Action Plan recognizes that the projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes have implications across all focus areas and encourages incorporation of climate change considerations into GLRI projects and programs as appropriate. Under the GLRI, EPA has funded climate change-related work by states, tribes, federal agencies, academics and NGOs through competitive grants, state and tribal capacity grants, and Interagency
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The climate change consensus extends beyond climate scientists
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carlton, J. S.; Perry-Hill, Rebecca; Huber, Matthew; Prokopy, Linda S.
2015-09-01
The existence of anthropogenic climate change remains a public controversy despite the consensus among climate scientists. The controversy may be fed by the existence of scientists from other disciplines publicly casting doubt on the validity of climate science. The extent to which non-climate scientists are skeptical of climate science has not been studied via direct survey. Here we report on a survey of biophysical scientists across disciplines at universities in the Big 10 Conference. Most respondents (93.6%) believe that mean temperatures have risen and most (91.9%) believe in an anthropogenic contribution to rising temperatures. Respondents strongly believe that climate science is credible (mean credibility score 6.67/7). Those who disagree about climate change disagree over basic facts (e.g., the effects of CO2 on climate) and have different cultural and political values. These results suggest that scientists who are climate change skeptics are outliers and that the majority of scientists surveyed believe in anthropogenic climate change and that climate science is credible and mature.
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Mapping human dimensions of climate change research in the Canadian Arctic.
Ford, James D; Bolton, Kenyon; Shirley, Jamal; Pearce, Tristan; Tremblay, Martin; Westlake, Michael
2012-12-01
This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris
2018-02-01
Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.
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Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change in the southeastern United States
Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Costanza, Jennifer
2016-08-11
Two recent investigations of climate-change vulnerability for 19 terrestrial, aquatic, riparian, and coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States have identified a number of important considerations, including potential for changes in hydrology, disturbance regimes, and interspecies interactions. Complementary approaches using geospatial analysis and literature synthesis integrated information on ecosystem biogeography and biodiversity, climate projections, vegetation dynamics, soil and water characteristics, anthropogenic threats, conservation status, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding impacts. Across a diverse set of ecosystems—ranging in size from dozens of square meters to thousands of square kilometers—quantitative and qualitative assessments identified types of climate-change exposure, evaluated sensitivity, and explored potential adaptive capacity. These analyses highlighted key gaps in scientific understanding and suggested priorities for future research. Together, these studies help create a foundation for ecosystem-level analysis of climate-change vulnerability to support effective biodiversity conservation in the southeastern United States.
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Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.
Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D
2017-09-01
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.
Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A
2011-06-01
Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.
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Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change
Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.
2009-01-01
Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
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A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases
Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin
2015-01-01
Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780
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Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses.
Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E
2014-01-01
Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made.
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Climate change and disaster management.
O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben
2006-03-01
Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.
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Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Creutzig, Felix; Roy, Joyashree; Lamb, William F.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Dalkmann, Holger; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Geels, Frank W.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hepburn, Cameron; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Khosla, Radhika; Mattauch, Linus; Minx, Jan C.; Ramakrishnan, Anjali; Rao, Narasimha D.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Tavoni, Massimo; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Weber, Elke U.
2018-04-01
Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.
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Climate change and environmental concentrations of POPs: A review.
Nadal, Martí; Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Domingo, José L
2015-11-01
In recent years, the climate change impact on the concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has become a topic of notable concern. Changes in environmental conditions such as the increase of the average temperature, or the UV-B radiation, are likely to influence the fate and behavior of POPs, ultimately affecting human exposure. The state of the art of the impact of climate change on environmental concentrations of POPs, as well as on human health risks, is here reviewed. Research gaps are also identified, while future studies are suggested. Climate change and POPs are a hot issue, for which wide attention should be paid not only by scientists, but also and mainly by policy makers. Most studies reported in the scientific literature are focused on legacy POPs, mainly polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides. However, the number of investigations aimed at estimating the impact of climate change on the environmental levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is scarce, despite of the fact that exposure to PAHs and photodegradation byproducts may result in adverse health effects. Furthermore, no data on emerging POPs are currently available in the scientific literature. In consequence, an intensification of studies to identify and mitigate the indirect effects of the climate change on POP fate is needed to minimize the human health impact. Furthermore, being this a global problem, interactions between climate change and POPs must be addressed from an international perspective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.
Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter
2013-10-01
This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 1
Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce
2018-01-01
The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 2
Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce
2018-01-01
The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akanda, A. S.; Serman, E. A.; Jutla, A.
2014-12-01
By 2050, more than 70% of the world's population is expected to be living in a city. In many of the urbanizing regions in Asia and Africa, most new development is taking place without adequate urban or regional planning, and a majority population is crowded into densely populated unplanned settlements, also known as slums. During the same period, precipitation and temperature patterns are likely to see significant changes in many of these regions while coastal megacities will have to accommodate sea-level rise in their ecosystems. The rapid increase in population is usually observed in fringes of the urban sprawl without adequate water or sanitation facilities or access to other municipal amenities (such as utilities, healthcare, and education). Collectively, these issues make the ever increasing slum dwellers in emerging megacities significantly vulnerable to a combination of climatic and anthropogenic threats. However, how the growth of unplanned urban and peri-urban sprawl and simultaneous change in climatic patterns have impacted public health in the emerging megacities remain largely unexplored due to lack of readily available and usable data. We employ a number of Remote Sensing products (GRACE, LANDSAT, MODIS) to bridge above knowledge gaps and to identify relevant hydrologic and anthropogenic changes in emerging megacities that are most vulnerable due to the climate-water-health nexus. We explore one of the largest and the fastest growing megacities in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh - on identifying and investigating the changes in the water environment and growth of slum areas, and impact on water services and health outcomes. The hydroclimatology of South Asia is highly seasonal and the asymmetric availability of water affects vast areas of Bangladesh differently in space and time, exposing the population of Dhaka region to both droughts and floods and periodic spring-fall outbreaks of diarrheal diseases, such as cholera and rotavirus. This research
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Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McClelland, J. Collin
No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases
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Climate change and forest diseases
R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods
2011-01-01
As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...
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Rural health service managers' perspectives on preparing rural health services for climate change.
Purcell, Rachael; McGirr, Joe
2018-02-01
To determine health service managers' (HSMs) recommendations on strengthening the health service response to climate change. Self-administered survey in paper or electronic format. Rural south-west of New South Wales. Health service managers working in rural remote metropolitan areas 3-7. Proportion of respondents identifying preferred strategies for preparation of rural health services for climate change. There were 43 participants (53% response rate). Most respondents agreed that there is scepticism regarding climate change among health professionals (70%, n = 30) and community members (72%, n = 31). Over 90% thought that climate change would impact the health of rural populations in the future with regard to heat-related illnesses, mental health, skin cancer and water security. Health professionals and government were identified as having key leadership roles on climate change and health in rural communities. Over 90% of the respondents believed that staff and community in local health districts (LHDs) should be educated about the health impacts of climate change. Public health education facilitated by State or Federal Government was the preferred method of educating community members, and education facilitated by the LHD was the preferred method for educating health professionals. Health service managers hold important health leadership roles within rural communities and their health services. The study highlights the scepticism towards climate change among health professionals and community members in rural Australia. It identifies the important role of rural health services in education and advocacy on the health impacts of climate change and identifies recommended methods of public health education for community members and health professionals. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.
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Community shifts under climate change: mechanisms at multiple scales.
Gornish, Elise S; Tylianakis, Jason M
2013-07-01
Processes that drive ecological dynamics differ across spatial scales. Therefore, the pathways through which plant communities and plant-insect relationships respond to changing environmental conditions are also expected to be scale-dependent. Furthermore, the processes that affect individual species or interactions at single sites may differ from those affecting communities across multiple sites. We reviewed and synthesized peer-reviewed literature to identify patterns in biotic or abiotic pathways underpinning changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities under three components of climate change (increasing temperature, CO2, and changes in precipitation) and how these differ across spatial scales. We also explored how these changes to plants affect plant-insect interactions. The relative frequency of biotic vs. abiotic pathways of climate effects at larger spatial scales often differ from those at smaller scales. Local-scale studies show variable responses to climate drivers, often driven by biotic factors. However, larger scale studies identify changes to species composition and/or reduced diversity as a result of abiotic factors. Differing pathways of climate effects can result from different responses of multiple species, habitat effects, and differing effects of invasions at local vs. regional to global scales. Plant community changes can affect higher trophic levels as a result of spatial or phenological mismatch, foliar quality changes, and plant abundance changes, though studies on plant-insect interactions at larger scales are rare. Climate-induced changes to plant communities will have considerable effects on community-scale trophic exchanges, which may differ from the responses of individual species or pairwise interactions.
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Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review
Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J
2014-01-01
The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802
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Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.
Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni
2016-10-01
Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molina-Perez, Edmundo
It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty
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Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trenbath, K. L.
2011-12-01
constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.
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Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.
Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P
2016-03-01
Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.
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The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Blom, Ronald G.; Farr, Tom G.; Feynmann, Joan; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Paillou, Philippe
2009-01-01
Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Adapting to the anticipated impacts of climate change is a pressing issue facing agriculture, as precipitation and temperature changes are expected to have major effects on agricultural production in many regions of the world. These changes will also affect soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition an...
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Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.
2014-12-01
Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.
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The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare
Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey
2015-01-01
Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240
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Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.
Diaz, James H
2006-01-01
Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.
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Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A
2007-04-01
Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.
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Global fish production and climate change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Brander, K.M.
2007-12-11
Current global fisheries production of {approx}160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but there is low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in somemore » high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are giverned by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipiation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the pricipal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.« less
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Enhancing the Communication of Climate Change Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Somerville, R. C.; Hassol, S. J.
2011-12-01
Climate scientists have an important role to play in the critical task of informing the public, media and policymakers. Scientists can help in publicizing and illuminating climate science. However, this task requires combining climate science expertise with advanced communication skills. For example, it is entirely possible to convey scientific information accurately without using jargon or technical concepts unfamiliar to non-scientists. However, making this translation into everyday language is a job that few scientists have been trained to do. In this talk, we give examples from our recent experience working with scientists to enhance their ability to communicate well. Our work includes providing training, technical assistance, and communications tools to climate scientists and universities, government agencies, and research centers. Our experience ranges from preparing Congressional testimony to writing major climate science reports to appearing on television. We have also aided journalists in gathering reliable scientific information and identifying trustworthy experts. Additionally, we are involved in developing resources freely available online at climatecommunication.org. These include a feature on the links between climate change and extreme weather, a climate science primer, and graphics and video explaining key developments in climate change science.
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A framework for the identification of hotspots of climate change risk for mammals.
Pacifici, Michela; Visconti, Piero; Rondinini, Carlo
2018-04-01
As rates of global warming increase rapidly, identifying species at risk of decline due to climate impacts and the factors affecting this risk have become key challenges in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we present a framework for assessing three components of climate-related risk for species: vulnerability, exposure and hazard. We used the relationship between the observed response of species to climate change and a set of intrinsic traits (e.g. weaning age) and extrinsic factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality within a species geographic range) to predict, respectively, the vulnerability and exposure of all data-sufficient terrestrial non-volant mammals (3,953 species). Combining this information with hazard (the magnitude of projected climate change within a species geographic range), we identified global hotspots of species at risk from climate change that includes the western Amazon basin, south-western Kenya, north-eastern Tanzania, north-eastern South Africa, Yunnan province in China, and mountain chains in Papua-New Guinea. Our framework identifies priority areas for monitoring climate change effects on species and directing climate mitigation actions for biodiversity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Trawöger, Lisa
2014-02-01
Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners , annoyed deniers , ambivalent optimists , convinced wait-and-seers . Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.
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Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.
2011-12-01
Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate
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Developing Health-Related Indicators of Climate Change: Australian Stakeholder Perspectives.
Navi, Maryam; Hansen, Alana; Nitschke, Monika; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Pisaniello, Dino
2017-05-22
Climate-related health indicators are potentially useful for tracking and predicting the adverse public health effects of climate change, identifying vulnerable populations, and monitoring interventions. However, there is a need to understand stakeholders' perspectives on the identification, development, and utility of such indicators. A qualitative approach was used, comprising semi-structured interviews with key informants and service providers from government and non-government stakeholder organizations in South Australia. Stakeholders saw a need for indicators that could enable the monitoring of health impacts and time trends, vulnerability to climate change, and those which could also be used as communication tools. Four key criteria for utility were identified, namely robust and credible indicators, specificity, data availability, and being able to be spatially represented. The variability of risk factors in different regions, lack of resources, and data and methodological issues were identified as the main barriers to indicator development. This study demonstrates a high level of stakeholder awareness of the health impacts of climate change, and the need for indicators that can inform policy makers regarding interventions.
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Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C
2013-02-01
Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many
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Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.
Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J
2008-08-01
There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks.
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Climate change and mammals: evolutionary versus plastic responses
Boutin, Stan; Lane, Jeffrey E
2014-01-01
Phenotypic plasticity and microevolution are the two primary means by which organisms respond adaptively to local conditions. While these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive, their relative magnitudes will influence both the rate of, and ability to sustain, phenotypic responses to climate change. We review accounts of recent phenotypic changes in wild mammal populations with the purpose of critically evaluating the following: (i) whether climate change has been identified as the causal mechanism producing the observed change; (ii) whether the change is adaptive; and (iii) the relative influences of evolution and/or phenotypic plasticity underlying the change. The available data for mammals are scant. We found twelve studies that report changes in phenology, body weight or litter size. In all cases, the observed response was primarily due to plasticity. Only one study (of advancing parturition dates in American red squirrels) provided convincing evidence of contemporary evolution. Subsequently, however, climate change has been shown to not be the causal mechanism underlying this shift. We also summarize studies that have shown evolutionary potential (i.e. the trait is heritable and/or under selection) in traits with putative associations with climate change and discuss future directions that need to be undertaken before a conclusive demonstration of plastic or evolutionary responses to climate change in wild mammals can be made. PMID:24454546
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A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses
2014-05-01
for identifying areas of heightened risk from varying forms of climate forcings is needed. Based on global climate model projections, deviations from...framework provides an opportunity to easily combine multiple data sources — that are often freely available from many federal, state, and global ...Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL
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Identifying surging glaciers in the Central Karakoram for improved climate change impact assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paul, Frank; Bolch, Tobias; Mölg, Nico; Rastner, Philipp
2015-04-01
Several recent studies have investigated glacier changes in the Karakoram mountain range, a region where glaciers behave differently (mass gain and advancing tongues) compared to most other regions in the world. Attribution of this behaviour to climate change is challenging, as many glaciers in the Karakoram are of surge type and have actively surged in the recent past. The measured changes in length, area, volume or velocity in this region are thus depending on the time-period analysed and include non-climatic components. Hence, a proper analysis of climate change impacts on glaciers in this region requires a separation of the surging from the non-surging glaciers. This is challenging as the former often lack the typical surface characteristics such as looped moraines (e.g. when they are steep and small) and/or they merge (during a surge) with a larger non-surging glacier and create looped moraines on its surface. By analysing time series of satellite images that are available since 1961, the heterogeneous behaviour of glaciers in the Karakoram can be revealed. In this study, we have analysed changes in glacier terminus positions in the Karakoram over different time periods from 1961 to 2014 for several hundred glaciers using Corona KH-4 and KH-4B, Hexagon KH-9, Terra ASTER, and Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data. For the last 15 years, high-speed animations of image time-series reveal details of glacier flow and surge dynamics that are otherwise difficult to detect. For example, several of the larger glaciers with surging tributaries (e.g. Panmah, Sarpo Laggo, Skamri, K2 glacier) are stationary and downwasting despite the mass contributions from the surging glaciers. The analysis of the entire time series reveals a complex pattern of changes through time with retreating, advancing, surging and stationary glaciers that are partly regionally clustered. While most of the non-surging glaciers show only small changes in terminus position (±100 m or less
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Wagner, Frederic H.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Baldwin, C.K.; Mearns, L.O.; Wagner, Frederic H.
2003-01-01
Three procedures were used to develop a set of plausible scenarios of anthropogenic climate change by the year 2100 that could be posed to the sectors selected for assessment (Fig. 2.2). First, a workshop of climatologists with expertise in western North American climates was convened from September 10-12, 1998 at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, CA to discuss and propose a set of scenarios for the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) region.Secondly, the 20th-century climate record was analyzed to determine what trends might have occurred during the period. Since CO2 and other greenhouse gases increased during the century, it was reasonable to examine whether the changes projected for the 21st century had begun to appear during the 20th, at least qualitatively though not quantitatively.Third, on the assumption of a two-fold increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2100, climate-change scenarios for the 21st century were projected with two, state-of-the-art computer models that simulate the complex interactions between earth, atmosphere, and ocean to produce the earth’s climate system. Each of the last two procedures has its strengths and weaknesses, and each can function to some degree as a check on the other. The historical analysis has the advantage of using empirical measurements of actual climate change taken over an extensive network of measuring stations. These make it possible to subdivide a large region like the RMGB into subreqions to assess the uniformity of climate and climate change over the region. And the historical measurements can to some degree serve as a check on the GCM simulations when the two are compared over the same time period.
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Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change
Luke P. Shoo; Deanna H. Olson; Sarah K. McMenamin; Kris A. Murray; Monique VanSluys; Maureen A. Donnelly; Danial Stratford; Juhani Terhivuo; Andres Merino-Viteri; Sarah M. Herbert; Phillip J. Bishop; Paul Stephen Corn; Liz Dovey; Richard A. Griffiths; Katrin Lowe; Michael Mahony; Hamish McCallum; Jonathan D. Shuker; Clay Simpkins; Lee F. Skerratt; Stephen E. Williams; Jean-Marc Hero
2011-01-01
Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were...
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Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.
2013-01-01
Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…
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Taking a climate chance: a procedural critique of Vietnam's climate change strategy.
Fortier, François
2010-01-01
This article asks through what processes and for which interests the emerging Vietnamese climate change strategy is being designed, and if, ultimately, it is likely or not to be effective in the face of the looming threat. Through a review of an emerging body of literature and field observations, the paper finds the strategy partial and problematic in several ways. Its technocratic process prevents a pluralist representation of interests, obfuscating and perpetuating sectorial ones, at the expense of a more transparent and democratic resource allocation. The strategy therefore reflects and reinforces existing power relations in both politics and production. It feeds into a business-as-usual complacency, protecting national and international interests vested in unchallenged continuity, even when considering post-carbon technological fixes, which largely serve to expand capital accumulation opportunities. The article concludes that the national climate change strategy provides an illusion of intervention and security, but largely fails to identify and mitigate the underlying causes of climate change, or to lay the ground for a robust mid- and long-term adaptation strategy that can cope with yet unknown levels of climatic and other structural changes.
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Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.
Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle
2017-01-03
We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mutiibwa, D.; Irmak, S.
2011-12-01
The majority of recent climate change studies have largely focused on detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcings of greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. However, there is growing evidence that land cover/land use (LULC) change can significantly impact atmospheric processes from local to regional weather and climate variability. Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of the land surfaces including albedo, energy balance, moisture-holding capacity of soil, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer, and ultimately impact the climate system. The challenge is to demonstrate that LULC changes produce a signal that can be discerned from natural climate noise. In this study, we attempt to detect the signature of anthropogenic forcing of LULC change on climate on regional scale. The signal projector investigated for detecting the signature of LULC changes on regional climate of the High Plains of the USA is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI is an indicator that captures short and long-term geographical distribution of vegetation surfaces. The study develops an enhanced signal processing procedure to maximize the signal to noise ratio by introducing a pre-filtering technique of ARMA processes on the investigated climate and signal variables, before applying the optimal fingerprinting technique to detect the signals of LULC changes on observed climate, temperature, in the High Plains. The intent is to filter out as much noise as possible while still retaining the essential features of the signal by making use of the known characteristics of the noise and the anticipated signal. The study discusses the approach of identifying and suppressing the autocorrelation in optimal fingerprint analysis by
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The neurobiology of climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
O'Donnell, Sean
2018-02-01
Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.
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The neurobiology of climate change.
O'Donnell, Sean
2018-01-06
Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.
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Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere
Lawler, J.J.; Shafer, S.L.; White, D.; Kareiva, P.; Maurer, E.P.; Blaustein, A.R.; Bartlein, P.J.
2009-01-01
Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.
2013-12-01
Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.
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Leslie Brandt; Chris Swanston; Linda Parker; Maria Janowiak; Richard Birdsey; Louis Iverson; David Mladenoff; Patricia Butler
2012-01-01
Climate change is leading to direct and indirect impacts on forest tree species and ecosystems in northern Wisconsin. Land managers will need to prepare for and respond to these impacts, so we designed a workshop to identify forest management approaches that can enhance the ability of ecosystems in northern Wisconsin to cope with climate change and address how National...
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Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team
2011-12-01
We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be
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Current Climate Variability & Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.
2013-12-01
Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and
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Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.
Hellmann, Jessica J; Byers, James E; Bierwagen, Britta G; Dukes, Jeffrey S
2008-06-01
Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.
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Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
2009-12-01
In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.
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Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review
2016-01-01
Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684
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Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.
Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio
2016-09-01
Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, W.; An, C.; Duan, F.; Zhao, Y.; Cao, Z.
2017-12-01
The AMS 14C dating and corresponding carbon stable isotope datum of charred wheat grains from archaeological sites in northwest China especially Hexi Corridor and Xinjiang have been collected widely to study its potential roles in reconstructing past climate change and identifying water management strategies through comparison with integrated regional humidity index, carbon isotope data of wheat grown under modern irrigation environment from study area and Mediterranean charred wheat carbon isotope data. The results suggest (1) carbon isotope discrimination values of charred wheat both in Hexi corridor and Xinjiang could respond well to regional moisture change, and there are also good positive correlation relationship between them (2) in contrast to consistent relationship between decreased carbon isotope discrimination values of charred wheat and dry climate condition, increased carbon isotope discrimination values does not represent wetter regional climate completely and may also reveal effects of human irrigation activities. The higher carbon isotope discrimination value of charred wheat which occurred in the Hexi Corridor from 4000 to 3850 a BP, 2100 a BP and 550 a BP and in Tianshan area of Xinjiang from 3730 a BP could be likely to be related with human activities (3) the carbon isotope discrimination value of charred wheat may have a certain limit which is generally not beyond 19‰. And this upper limit could influence its availability in reflecting abrupt change of precipitation/humidity especially rapid wetter trend. We conclude that carbon isotope analysis of charred wheat grains could be a good tool for reconstructing past climate change and identifying ancient irrigation practices.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.
2016-12-01
There is a consensus on the fact that poor people are more vulnerable to climate change than the rest of the population, but, until recently, few quantified estimates had been proposed and few frameworks existed to design policies for addressing the issue. In this paper, we analyze the impacts of climate change on poverty using micro-simulation approaches. We start from household surveys that describe the current distribution of income and occupations, we project these households into the future and we look at the impacts of climate change on people's income. To project households into the future, we explore a large range of assumptions on future demographic changes (including on education), technological changes, and socio-economic trends (including redistribution policies). This approach allows us to identify the main combination of factors that lead to fast poverty reduction, and the ones that lead to high climate change impacts on the poor. Identifying these factors is critical for designing efficient policies to protect the poorest from climate change impacts and making economic growth more inclusive. Conclusions are twofold. First, by 2030 climate change can have a large impact on poverty, with between 3 and 122 million more people in poverty, but climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty trends within this time horizon. Climate change impacts do not only affect the poorest: in 2030, the bottom 40 percent lose more than 4 percent of income in many countries. The regional hotspots are Sub-Saharan Africa and - to a lesser extent - India and the rest of South Asia. The most important channel through which climate change increases poverty is through agricultural income and food prices. Second, by 2030 and in the absence of surprises on climate impacts, inclusive climate-informed development can prevent most of (but not all) the impacts on poverty. In a scenario with rapid, inclusive and climate-proof development, climate change impact on poverty is
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Climate change adaptation benefits of potential conservation partnerships.
Monahan, William B; Theobald, David M
2018-01-01
We evaluate the world terrestrial network of protected areas (PAs) for its partnership potential in responding to climate change. That is, if a PA engaged in collaborative, trans-boundary management of species, by investing in conservation partnerships with neighboring areas, what climate change adaptation benefits might accrue? We consider core tenets of conservation biology related to protecting large areas with high environmental heterogeneity and low climate change velocity and ask how a series of biodiversity adaptation indicators change across spatial scales encompassing potential PA and non-PA partners. Less than 1% of current world terrestrial PAs equal or exceed the size of established and successful conservation partnerships. Partnering at this scale would increase the biodiversity adaptation indicators by factors up to two orders of magnitude, compared to a null model in which each PA is isolated. Most partnership area surrounding PAs is comprised of non-PAs (70%), indicating the importance of looking beyond the current network of PAs when promoting climate change adaptation. Given monumental challenges with PA-based species conservation in the face of climate change, partnerships provide a logical and achievable strategy for helping areas adapt. Our findings identify where strategic partnering efforts in highly vulnerable areas of the world may prove critical in safeguarding biodiversity.
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Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation
Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...
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Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.
Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F
2003-10-17
Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.
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Vulnerability of cattle production to climate change on U.S. rangelands
Matt C. Reeves; Karen E. Bagne
2016-01-01
We examined multiple climate change effects on cattle production for U.S. rangelands to estimate relative change and identify sources of vulnerability among seven regions. Climate change effects to 2100 were projected from published models for four elements: forage quantity, vegetation type trajectory, heat stress, and forage variability. Departure of projections from...
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Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.
Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B
2015-01-01
Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 2
Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce
2018-01-01
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...
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Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 1
Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce
2018-01-01
The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...
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[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].
Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng
2012-11-01
Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.
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Iowa Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Report
The findings of a pilot project to work with stakeholders and governments in Iowa to identify barriers to and incentives for considering regional effects of climate change in hazard mitigation planning and other community planning processes.
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Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.
2015-12-01
Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.
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Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe
Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina
2014-01-01
BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions
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Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.
Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina
2014-01-01
In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.
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Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara
2015-04-01
A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation
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Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.
Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R
2017-10-01
Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.
Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B
2017-12-01
Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.
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A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change
C. David Bertelsen
2013-01-01
Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dawson, Vaille
2015-05-01
Climate change is one of the most significant science issues facing humanity; yet, teaching students about climate change is challenging: not only is it multidisciplinary, but also it is contentious and debated in political, social and media forums. Students need to be equipped with an understanding of climate change science to be able to participate in this discourse. The purpose of this study was to examine Western Australian high school students' understanding of climate change and the greenhouse effect, in order to identify their alternative conceptions about climate change science and provide a baseline for more effective teaching. A questionnaire designed to elicit students' understanding and alternative conceptions was completed by 438 Year 10 students (14-15 years old). A further 20 students were interviewed. Results showed that students know different features of both climate change and the greenhouse effect, however not necessarily all of them and the relationships between. Five categories of alternative conceptions were identified. The categories were (1) the greenhouse effect and the ozone layer; (2) types of greenhouse gases; (3) types of radiation; (4) weather and climate and (5) air pollution. These findings provide science educators a basis upon which to develop strategies and curriculum resources to improve their students' understanding and decision-making skills about the socioscientific issue, climate change.
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Modeling technical change in climate analysis: evidence from agricultural crop damages.
Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem
2017-05-01
This study accounts for the Hicks neutral technical change in a calibrated model of climate analysis, to identify the optimum level of technical change for addressing climate changes. It demonstrates the reduction to crop damages, the costs to technical change, and the net gains for the adoption of technical change for a climate-sensitive Pakistan economy. The calibrated model assesses the net gains of technical change for the overall economy and at the agriculture-specific level. The study finds that the gains of technical change are overwhelmingly higher than the costs across the agriculture subsectors. The gains and costs following technical change differ substantially for different crops. More importantly, the study finds a cost-effective optimal level of technical change that potentially reduces crop damages to a minimum possible level. The study therefore contends that the climate policy for Pakistan should consider the role of technical change in addressing climate impacts on the agriculture sector.
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Climate change, conflict and health.
Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil
2015-10-01
Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.
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Abrupt climate change: can society cope?
Hulme, Mike
2003-09-15
Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being
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Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes
Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig P.
2017-01-01
Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.
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The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.
Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John
2018-04-04
A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.
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The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda
Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John
2018-01-01
A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317
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Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism
Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle
2017-01-01
We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143
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CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.
Kerr, Jeremy T; Pindar, Alana; Galpern, Paul; Packer, Laurence; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart M; Rasmont, Pierre; Schweiger, Oliver; Colla, Sheila R; Richardson, Leif L; Wagner, David L; Gall, Lawrence F; Sikes, Derek S; Pantoja, Alberto
2015-07-10
For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anttila-Hughes, J. K.
2009-12-01
In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.
2005-01-01
We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.
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Peters, Casey B; Schwartz, Mark W; Lubell, Mark N
2018-03-01
Meeting ecosystem management challenges posed by climate change requires building effective communication channels among researchers, planners and practitioners to focus research on management issues requiring new knowledge. We surveyed resource managers within two regions of the western United States regions to better understand perceived risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change and barriers to obtaining and using relevant climate science information in making ecosystem management decisions. We sought to understand what types of climate science information resource managers find most valuable, and the formats in which they prefer to receive climate science information. We found broad concern among natural resource managers in federal agencies that climate change will make it more difficult for them to achieve their management goals. Primary barriers to incorporating climate science into planning are distributed among challenges identifying, receiving, and interpreting appropriate science and a lack of direction provided by agency leadership needed to meaningfully use this emerging science in resource planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit
2014-03-01
There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.
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Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.
2013-12-01
on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.
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VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose
2013-04-01
Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of
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Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.
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Climate change and older Americans: state of the science.
Gamble, Janet L; Hurley, Bradford J; Schultz, Peter A; Jaglom, Wendy S; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda
2013-01-01
Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.
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Quantifying uncertainty in climate change science through empirical information theory.
Majda, Andrew J; Gershgorin, Boris
2010-08-24
Quantifying the uncertainty for the present climate and the predictions of climate change in the suite of imperfect Atmosphere Ocean Science (AOS) computer models is a central issue in climate change science. Here, a systematic approach to these issues with firm mathematical underpinning is developed through empirical information theory. An information metric to quantify AOS model errors in the climate is proposed here which incorporates both coarse-grained mean model errors as well as covariance ratios in a transformation invariant fashion. The subtle behavior of model errors with this information metric is quantified in an instructive statistically exactly solvable test model with direct relevance to climate change science including the prototype behavior of tracer gases such as CO(2). Formulas for identifying the most sensitive climate change directions using statistics of the present climate or an AOS model approximation are developed here; these formulas just involve finding the eigenvector associated with the largest eigenvalue of a quadratic form computed through suitable unperturbed climate statistics. These climate change concepts are illustrated on a statistically exactly solvable one-dimensional stochastic model with relevance for low frequency variability of the atmosphere. Viable algorithms for implementation of these concepts are discussed throughout the paper.
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Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte
2014-02-01
Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.
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Exploring the role of traditional ecological knowledge in climate change initiatives
Kirsten Vinyeta; Kathy Lynn
2013-01-01
Indigenous populations are projected to face disproportionate impacts as a result of climate change in comparison to nonindigenous populations. For this reason, many American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are identifying and implementing culturally appropriate strategies to assess climate impacts and adapt to projected changes. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK...
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Climate change and respiratory disease: European Respiratory Society position statement.
Ayres, J G; Forsberg, B; Annesi-Maesano, I; Dey, R; Ebi, K L; Helms, P J; Medina-Ramón, M; Windt, M; Forastiere, F
2009-08-01
Climate change will affect individuals with pre-existing respiratory disease, but the extent of the effect remains unclear. The present position statement was developed on behalf of the European Respiratory Society in order to identify areas of concern arising from climate change for individuals with respiratory disease, healthcare workers in the respiratory sector and policy makers. The statement was developed following a 2-day workshop held in Leuven (Belgium) in March 2008. Key areas of concern for the respiratory community arising from climate change are discussed and recommendations made to address gaps in knowledge. The most important recommendation was the development of more accurate predictive models for predicting the impact of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory healthcare workers also have an advocatory role in persuading governments and the European Union to maintain awareness and appropriate actions with respect to climate change, and these areas are also discussed in the position statement.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Littell, J. S.; Poe, A.; van Pelt, T.
2015-12-01
Climate change is already affecting the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island region of Alaska. Past and present marine research across a broad spectrum of disciplines is shedding light on what sectors of the ecosystem and the human dimension will be most impacted. In a grassroots approach to extend existing research efforts, leveraging recently completed downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, we convened a team of 30 researchers-- with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to marine mammals-- to assess climate projections in the context of their expertise. This Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) began with researchers working in five teams to evaluate the vulnerabilities of key species and ecosystem services relative to projected changes in climate. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities for their focal species or services, and made recommendations for further research and information needs that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region. Those draft recommendations were shared during two focused, public sessions held within two hub communities for the Bering and Aleutian region: Unalaska and St. Paul. Qualitative insights about local concerns and observations relative to climate change were collected during these sessions, to be compared to the recommendations being made by the ABCVA team of researchers. Finally, we used a Structured Decision Making process to prioritize the recommendations of participating scientists, and integrate the insights shared during our community sessions. This work brought together residents, stakeholders, scientists, and natural resource managers to collaboratively identify priorities for addressing current and expected future impacts of climate change. Recommendations from this project will be incorporated into future research efforts of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation
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Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...
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Climate change and One Health.
Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio
2018-06-01
The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.
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Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio
2018-01-01
Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.
2017-10-01
Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.
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Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati
McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven
2014-01-01
Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452
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Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.
McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven
2014-05-14
Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.
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Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.
2014-12-01
The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are
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Macpherson, Cheryl Cox
2014-04-01
One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.
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Ice sheets play important role in climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clark, Peter U.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Andrews, John T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.
Ice sheets once were viewed as passive elements in the climate system enslaved to orbitally generated variations in solar radiation. Today, modeling results and new geologic records suggest that ice sheets actively participated in late-Pleistocene climate change, amplifying or driving significant variability at millennial as well as orbital timescales. Although large changes in global ice volume were ultimately caused by orbital variations (the Milankovitch hypothesis), once in existence, the former ice sheets behaved dynamically and strongly influenced regional and perhaps even global climate by altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature.Experiments with General Circulation Models (GCMs) yielded the first inklings of ice sheets' climatic significance. Manabe and Broccoli [1985], for example, found that the topographic and albedo effects of ice sheets alone explain much of the Northern Hemisphere cooling identified in paleoclimatic records of the last glacial maximum (˜21 ka).
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Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John
2014-04-01
Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.
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Misconceptions Surrounding Climate Change: A Review of the Literature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Templeton, C. M.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.
2011-12-01
Misconceptions about climate change abound in every corner of society. The result manifests itself ranging from apprehension to total disregard for climate change conditions. According to several sources, however, a large percentage of the U. S. population do, indeed indicate some concern over global warming and climate change in general. These climate change misconceptions are numerous and include, to name a few; confusion between weather and climate, how greenhouse gases are affecting the earth, the effects of ozone depletion, earth's natural cycles, volcanic activity, nuclear waste and a host of other anthropogenic influences. This paper is a review of the current research literature relating to climate change misconceptions. These errant views will be addressed, cataloged, enumerated, and ranked to get a grasp on where the general population, politicians, scientists, and educators as well as students stand on informed climate change information. The categories where misconceptions arise have been identified in this literature review study and include the following: Natural cycles of the earth, ecological which include deforestation, urban development and any human intervention on the environment, educational - including teacher strategies, student understanding and textbook updates, emotional, ozone layer and its interactions, polar ice, political regulations, mandates and laws, pollution from human sources as well as from nature, religious beliefs and dogma and social beliefs. We suggest appropriate solutions for addressing these misconceptions, especially in the classroom setting, and broadly include available funding sources for work in climate change education. Some solutions include need for compilation of appropriate education resources and materials for public use, need for the development of educational materials that appropriately address the variety of publics, and need for programs that are conducting climate change education research and EPO work to
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Conserving the zoological resources of Bangladesh under a changing climate.
DAS, Bidhan C
2009-06-01
It is now well recognized that Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea level rise. Low levels of natural resources and a high occurrence of natural disasters further add to the challenges faced by the country. The impacts of climate change are anticipated to exacerbate these existing stresses and constitute a serious impediment to poverty reduction and economic development. Ecosystems and biodiversity are important key sectors of the economy and natural resources of the country are selected as the most vulnerable to climate change. It is for these reasons that Bangladesh should prepare to conserve its natural resources under changed climatic conditions. Unfortunately, the development of specific strategies and policies to address the effects of climate change on the ecosystem and on biodiversity has not commenced in Bangladesh. Here, I present a detailed review of animal resources of Bangladesh, an outline of the major areas in zoological research to be integrated to adapt to climate change, and identified few components for each of the aforesaid areas in relation to the natural resource conservation and management in the country. © 2009 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.
2016-09-01
Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.
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Climate Change and Civil Violence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.
2009-05-01
The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore
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Climate change and dead zones.
Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B
2015-04-01
Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Climate change; Confronting the global experiment
Constance I. Millar
2006-01-01
Earth’s natural climate system is characterized by continually changing climates, with climate regimes that oscillate quasi-cyclically at multiple and nested scales from annual to multi-millennial, and commonly change abruptly. Under naturally changing climates, plant species track changes at all scales in individualistic manner, with plant communities...
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C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang
2014-01-01
Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...
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Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Widmann, Martin; Zappa, Giuseppe; Walton, Daniel; Gutiérrez, José M.; Hagemann, Stefan; Richter, Ingo; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Hall, Alex; Mearns, Linda O.
2017-11-01
Biases in climate model simulations introduce biases in subsequent impact simulations. Therefore, bias correction methods are operationally used to post-process regional climate projections. However, many problems have been identified, and some researchers question the very basis of the approach. Here we demonstrate that a typical cross-validation is unable to identify improper use of bias correction. Several examples show the limited ability of bias correction to correct and to downscale variability, and demonstrate that bias correction can cause implausible climate change signals. Bias correction cannot overcome major model errors, and naive application might result in ill-informed adaptation decisions. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, post-process, and cope with climate model biases.
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Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina
2017-11-01
The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.
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A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Newhouse, Kay Berglund
2007-01-01
In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…
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Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.
2014-11-01
Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.
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Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.
Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K
2011-01-01
This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.
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Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.
Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E
2015-07-01
Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have
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Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J
2013-10-28
Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.
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Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ausden, Malcolm
2014-10-01
Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.
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Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science
Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda
2012-01-01
Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457
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The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare.
Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey
2015-05-21
The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenzweig, C.; Ali Ibrahim, S.
2015-12-01
The objective of this session is to foster a dialogue between experts working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers. We will present the UCCRN and the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), the second in an ongoing series of global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessments to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities. This is an especially important time to examine these issues. Cities continue to act as world leaders in climate action. Several major climate change assessment efforts are in full swing, at a crucial stage where significant opportunities for the co-production of knowledge between researchers and stakeholders exist. The IPCC AR5 Working Group II and III Reports have placed unprecedented attention on cities and urbanization and their connection to the issue of climate change. Concurrently several major, explicitly city-focused efforts have emerged from the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), ICLEI, the Durban Adaptation Charter (DAC), C40, Future Earth, and the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project, among others. The underlying rationale for the discussion will be to identify methods and approaches to further foster the development and dissemination of new climate change knowledge and information that will be useful for cities, especially in small and medium-sized cities and in the developing country context where the demand is particularly acute. Participants will leave this session with: · The latest scientific data and state-of-the-knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change · Emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective
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... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...
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Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Castillo Rodriguez, R. A., Sr.; Amador, J. A.; Duran-Quesada, A. M.
2017-12-01
Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range (°C) for the periods 1950-2005 and 2006-2100 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests future drying conditions.
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Helping Water Utilities Grapple with Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yates, D.; Gracely, B.; Miller, K.
2008-12-01
The Water Research Foundation (WRF), serving the drinking water industry and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are collaborating on an effort to develop and implement locally-relevant, structured processes to help water utilities consider the impacts and adaptation options that climate variability and change might have on their water systems. Adopting a case-study approach, the structured process include 1) a problem definition phase, focused on identifying goals, information needs, utility vulnerabilities and possible adaptation options in the face of climate and hydrologic uncertainty; 2) developing and/or modifying system-specific Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) models and conducting sensitivity analysis to identify critical variables; 3) developing probabilistic climate change scenarios focused on exploring uncertainties identified as important in the sensitivity analysis in step 2; and 4) implementing the structured process and examining approaches decision making under uncertainty. Collaborators include seven drinking water utilities and two state agencies: 1) The Inland Empire Utility Agency, CA; 2) The El Dorado Irrigation District, Placerville CA; 2) Portland Water Bureau, Portland OR; 3) Colorado Springs Utilities, Colo Spgs, CO; 4) Cincinnati Water, Cincinnati, OH; 5) Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA), Boston, MA; 6) Durham Water, Durham, NC; and 7) Palm Beach County Water (PBCW), Palm Beach, FL. The California Department of Water Resources and the Colorado Water Conservation Board were the state agencies that we have collaborated with.
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USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...
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A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change
Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch
2011-01-01
Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...
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Climate change and the biosphere
F. Stuart Chapin
2008-01-01
Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...
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Mapping Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Infectious Diseases in Europe
Suk, Jonathan E.; Estevez, Virginia; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lindgren, Elisabet
2011-01-01
Background: The incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases are generally expected to change as a consequence of climate change, yet there is limited regional information available to guide decision making. Objective: We surveyed government officials designated as Competent Bodies for Scientific Advice concerning infectious diseases to examine the degree to which they are concerned about potential effects of climate change on infectious diseases, as well as their perceptions of institutional capacities in their respective countries. Methods: In 2007 and 2009/2010, national infectious disease experts from 30 European Economic Area countries were surveyed about recent and projected infectious disease patterns in relation to climate change in their countries and the national capacity to cope with them. Results: A large majority of respondents agreed that climate change would affect vector-borne (86% of country representatives), food-borne (70%), water-borne (68%), and rodent-borne (68%) diseases in their countries. In addition, most indicated that institutional improvements are needed for ongoing surveillance programs (83%), collaboration with the veterinary sector (69%), management of animal disease outbreaks (66%), national monitoring and control of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (64%), health services during an infectious disease outbreak (61%), and diagnostic support during an epidemic (54%). Conclusions: Expert responses were generally consistent with the peer-reviewed literature regarding the relationship between climate change and vector- and water-borne diseases, but were less so for food-borne diseases. Shortcomings in institutional capacity to manage climate change vulnerability, identified in this assessment, should be addressed in impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments. PMID:22113877
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Conflict in a changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.
2016-05-01
A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.
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McKenzie, Don; Allen, Craig D.
2007-01-01
Warming temperatures across western North America, coupled with increased drought, are expected to exacerbate disturbance regimes, particularly wildfires, insect outbreaks, and invasions of exotic species. Many ecologists and resource managers expect ecosystems to change more rapidly from disturbance effects than from the effects of a changing climate by itself. A particular challenge is to understand the interactions among disturbance regimes; for example, how will massive outbreaks of bark beetles, which kill drought-stressed trees by feeding on cambial tissues, increase the potential for large severe wildfires in a warming climate?Researchers in climatology, ecosystem science, fire and insect ecology, and landscape modeling from across western North America convened in Tucson, Ariz., for a 2 and a half day intensive workshop to identify new research directions in climate change and disturbance ecology. Four work groups focused on different aspects of the response of disturbance regimes to climate change: (1) extreme events and climatic variability (2) the effects of changing disturbance regimes on ecosystems, (3) disturbance interactions and cumulative effects, and (4) developing new landscape disturbance models. The workshop was structured with the analytic hierarchy process, a decision support method for achieving consensus from diverse groups of experts without sacrificing individual contributions.
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Stratonovitch, Pierre; Semenov, Mikhail A.
2015-01-01
To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the
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Climate change and water availability for vulnerable agriculture
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria
2017-04-01
Climatic projections for the Mediterranean basin indicate that the area will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change. The key climatic trends identified for the Mediterranean region are continuous temperature increase, further drying with precipitation decrease and the accentuation of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and/or forest fires, which are expected to have a profound effect on agriculture. Indeed, the impact of climate variability on agricultural production is important at local, regional, national, as well as global scales. Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage patterns. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. Similarly, with higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favors increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts. As a result, crop yields are affected by variations in climatic factors, such as air temperature and precipitation, and the frequency and severity of the above mentioned extreme events. The aim of this work is to briefly present the main effects of climate change and variability on water resources with respect to water availability for vulnerable agriculture, namely in the Mediterranean region. Results of undertaken studies in Greece on precipitation patterns and drought assessment using historical data records are presented. Based on precipitation frequency analysis, evidence of precipitation reductions is shown. Drought is assessed through an agricultural drought index, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), in Thessaly, a drought-prone region in central Greece. The results justify the importance of water availability for vulnerable agriculture and the need for drought monitoring in the Mediterranean basin as part of
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Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Santer, Benjamin D.
2011-11-01
This chapter describes progress in the field of "detection and attribution" (D&A) research, which seeks to identify certain "fingerprints," or patterns of climate change, and to correlate them with possible human factors influencing the climate. Such studies contributed to the scientific confidence with which the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was able to assert that anthropogenic greenhouse gases had had a discernible effect on global warming since the mid-20th century. D&A methods have greatly improved to incorporate many more climate variables and to include increasingly finer variations in space and time. The chapter also describes the intercomparison of global climate models and the comprehensive data base of model simulations now available to anyone free of charge. The following is the testimony given by Benjamin Santer to the U.S. House of Representative Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, on November 17, 2010. It is adapted from a chapter that Tom Wigley and Benjamin Santer published in a book edited by the late Stephen Schneider [1] and from previous testimony given by Dr. Santer to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.[2
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Changes in future fire regimes under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut
2013-04-01
Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.
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Climate Change Through a Poverty Lens
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.
2017-12-01
Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.
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Climate change through a poverty lens
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie
2017-04-01
Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.
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Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages
Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.
2016-01-01
Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.
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Genetics of climate change adaptation.
Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A
2012-01-01
The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.
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Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change.
Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina
2017-07-29
Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established.
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Heat Exposure and Maternal Health in the Face of Climate Change
Kuehn, Leeann; McCormick, Sabrina
2017-01-01
Climate change will increasingly affect the health of vulnerable populations, including maternal and fetal health. This systematic review aims to identify recent literature that investigates increasing heat and extreme temperatures on pregnancy outcomes globally. We identify common research findings in order to create a comprehensive understanding of how immediate effects will be sustained in the next generation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide, we systematically reviewed articles from PubMed and Cochrane Reviews. We included articles that identify climate change-related exposures and adverse health effects for pregnant women. There is evidence that temperature extremes adversely impact birth outcomes, including, but not limited to: changes in length of gestation, birth weight, stillbirth, and neonatal stress in unusually hot temperature exposures. The studies included in this review indicate that not only is there a need for further research on the ways that climate change, and heat in particular, may affect maternal health and neonatal outcomes, but that uniform standards for assessing the effects of heat on maternal fetal health also need to be established. PMID:28758917
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Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity
Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.
2015-01-01
The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures
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Capturing Tweets on Climate Change: What is the role of Twitter in Climate Change Communication?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ngo, A. M.; McNeal, K.; Luginbuhl, S.; Enteen, J.
2015-12-01
Climate change is a major environmental issue that is often discussed throughout the world using social media outlets such as Twitter. This research followed and collected tweets about climate change as they related to two events: (i) the June 18, 2015 release of the Encyclical by Pope Francis which included content about climate change and (ii) the upcoming COP21 conference, a United Nations climate change conference, to be held on Dec. 7-8, 2015 in Paris. Using a Twitter account and Ncapture we were able to collect tens of thousands of climate change related tweets that were then loaded into a program called Nvivo which stored the tweets and associated publically available user information. We followed a few major hashtags such as COP21, UNFCCC, @climate, and the Pope. We examined twitter users, the information sources, locations, number of re-tweets, and frequency of tweets as well as the category of the tweet in regard to positive, negative, and neutral positions about climate. Frequency analysis of tweets over a 10 day period of the Encyclical event showed that ~200 tweets per day were made prior to the event, with ~1000 made on the day of the event, and ~100 per day following the event. For the COP21 event, activity ranged from 2000-3000 tweets per day. For the Encyclical event, an analysis of 1100 tweets on the day of release indicated that 47% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 50% were neutral, 1% negative, and 2% were unclear. For the COP21 event, an analysis of 342 tweets randomly sampled from 31,721 tweets, showed that 53% of the tweets had a positive perspective about climate change, 12% were neutral, 13% negative, and 22% were unclear. Differences in the frequency and perspectives of tweets were likely due to the nature of the events, one a long-term and recurring international event and the other a single international religious-oriented event. We tabulated the top 10 tweets about climate change as they relate to these two
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Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.
2011-12-01
In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region
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Climate change and biological invasions: evidence, expectations, and response options.
Hulme, Philip E
2017-08-01
A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human-assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost-effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only
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Dodo, Mahamat K
2014-01-01
Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Oblak, Jackie
2000-01-01
Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)
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Politics of climate change belief
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
2017-01-01
Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.
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Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change.
Ojea, Elena; Pearlman, Isaac; Gaines, Steven D; Lester, Sarah E
2017-05-01
Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.
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Psychological research and global climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia
2015-07-01
Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.
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Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.
2011-12-01
The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is
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Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.
Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J
2017-02-01
A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.
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Put a Frame on It: Contextualizing Climate Change for Museum Visitors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Canning, Katharine
Public opinion polls continue to show that Americans are divided---particularly along political and ideological lines---on whether climate change is real and warrants immediate action. Those in the natural and social sciences have recognized that effective communication is key to closing the gap that exists between scientific and public understanding on this issue. A body of social science research on climate change communication has emerged within the last decade. This field has identified strategies for climate change communicators and educators, emphasizing the importance of framing climate change issues in ways that help it resonate with a wider range of public concerns and values in order to develop a shared belief regarding the necessity of action. Museum exhibits and programs on climate change that were developed within the last five years are likely to have benefitted from this body of work. This qualitative research seeks to examine and analyze the various ways museums in the United States are communicating about climate change related issues to the public. Three case studies of museum exhibits on climate change issues were examined. The scope and purpose of climate change communication in museums, the specific messages that museums are choosing to communicate, and how those messages are being framed for public audiences were explored through these case studies. The findings suggest that museums are considering their audience when framing messages about climate change and have used work from the climate change communication field to inform message development. In particular, museums are making climate change issues more relevant by emphasizing social, economic, and human health concerns, and are considering strategies to counteract fear-fatigue and empower visitors to take action.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois
2016-08-01
Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.
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Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois
2016-08-01
Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.
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Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanrahan, J.
2015-12-01
While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.
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Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, Jeneva
2016-12-01
Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.
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Malaria ecology and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCord, G. C.
2016-05-01
Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.
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Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries
Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.
2016-01-01
Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074
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Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.
Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D
2016-09-07
Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.
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Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bain, Paul G.; Milfont, Taciano L.; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Bilewicz, Michał; Doron, Guy; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B.; Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Guan, Yanjun; Johansson, Lars-Olof; Pasquali, Carlota; Corral-Verdugo, Victor; Aragones, Juan Ignacio; Utsugi, Akira; Demarque, Christophe; Otto, Siegmar; Park, Joonha; Soland, Martin; Steg, Linda; González, Roberto; Lebedeva, Nadezhda; Madsen, Ole Jacob; Wagner, Claire; Akotia, Charity S.; Kurz, Tim; Saiz, José L.; Schultz, P. Wesley; Einarsdóttir, Gró; Saviolidis, Nina M.
2016-02-01
Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.
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Climate Change Effects on Agriculture: Economic Responses to Biophysical Shocks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlik, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina
2014-01-01
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(sup 2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
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Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks.
Nelson, Gerald C; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk
2014-03-04
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
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Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?
Mills, David M
2009-01-01
Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.
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Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Newton, S.
2009-12-01
Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.
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Terrestrial "Islands" in a Changing Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cartwright, J. M.; Wolfe, W. J.
2016-12-01
Terrestrial insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, such as soil-surface temperature, extreme hydrologic conditions, fires, flood-scouring, and episodic droughts, all of which may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous site-specific investigations have yielded important information on the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems, but this literature has generally remained fragmented. Regional and cross-system syntheses are needed to discern larger patterns in the drivers of plant biodiversity in these ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for climate-change vulnerability analysis. For eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, a synthetic literature review was completed to assess the state-of-the-science concerning (1) physical geography including geologic, topographic, edaphic, hydrologic, and geomorphic context; (2) ecological determinants of community structures including factors regulating successional dynamics and spatial vegetation patterns; (3) contributions of the insular ecosystem to regional and global biodiversity; (4) historic and current anthropogenic threats as well as conservation approaches to mitigate these threats; and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. From this synthesis, new conceptual models were developed to assess ecosystem-level exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change and other anthropogenic influences.
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Which host-dependent insects are most prone to coextinction under changed climates?
Moir, Melinda L; Hughes, Lesley; Vesk, Peter A; Leng, Mei Chen
2014-01-01
Coextinction (loss of dependent species with their host or partner species) presents a threat to untold numbers of organisms. Climate change may act synergistically to accelerate rates of coextinction. In this review, we present the first synthesis of the available literature and propose a novel schematic diagram that can be used when assessing the potential risk climate change represents for dependent species. We highlight traits that may increase the susceptibility of insect species to coextinction induced by climate change, suggest the most influential host characteristics, and identify regions where climate change may have the greatest impact on dependent species. The aim of this review was to provide a platform for future research, directing efforts toward taxa and habitats at greatest risk of species loss through coextinction accelerated by climate change. PMID:24834327
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Climate Change and Collective Violence.
Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A
2017-03-20
Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.
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Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wuebbles, Don; Gupta, Mohan; Ko, Malcolm
2006-01-01
Projections indicate that demand for aviation transportation will increase by more than two fold over the next few decades. Timely action is needed to understand and quantify the potential climate impacts of aviation emissions particularly given the sustained lapse over the last several years in U.S. research activities in this area. In response to the stated needs, a group of international experts participated in the Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change during June 7-9, 2006 in Boston, MA. The workshop focus was on the impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions in the UT/LS region and on the potential response of the climate system. The goals of the workshop were to assess and document the present state of scientific knowledge, to identify the key underlying uncertainties and gaps, to identify ongoing and further research needed, to explore the development of climate impact metrics, and to help focus the scientific community on the aviation-climate change research needs. The workshop concluded that the major ways that aviation can affect climate, in agreement with the 1999 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are the direct climate effects from CO2 and water vapor emissions, the indirect forcing on climate resulting from changes in the distributions and concentrations of ozone and methane as a primary consequence of aircraft nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, the direct effects (and indirect effects on clouds) from emitted aerosols and aerosol precursors, and the climate effects associated with contrails and cirrus cloud formation. The workshop was organized in three subgroups: (1) Effects of aircraft emissions on the UT/LS chemical composition, (2) Effects of water and particle emissions on contrails and on cirrus clouds, and (3) Impacts on climate from aircraft emissions and identification of suitable metrics to measure these impacts. The workshop participants acknowledged the need for focused research specifically to
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Adapting agriculture to climate change.
Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger
2007-12-11
The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.
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Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cullen, H. M.
2014-12-01
Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-03-31
... Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of the United States AGENCY: U.S. Geological... Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of the United States''. The report reviews key issues related to freshwater resource data and climate change and identifies next steps to...
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Climate change and human health: Indian context.
Singh, Poonam K; Dhiman, Ramesh C
2012-06-01
The article reviews the issue of climate change and health in the Indian context. The importance of climate change leading to estimated loss of above 2.5 million DALYs in southeast Asia, mortality due to heat waves, and the importance of air quality related respiratory diseases, disasters due to excessive floods, malnutrition due to reduction in rice, maize and sorghum crops etc. Latest work undertaken in India, vis-a-vis current scenario and need for further work has been discussed. There is felt need of further studies on assessing the impact on dengue and chikungunya as the transmission dynamics of these diseases involve water availability, storage and life style, etc. Uncertainties and knowledge gaps identified in the studies undertaken so far have also been highlighted. As regards to vector borne diseases, there is a need to concentrate in the areas which are presently free from malaria and with use of best available tools of interventions in already disease endemic areas like northeastern states, the risk of climate change impacts can be minimized.
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Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Thomas, Katherine
A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climatemore » change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.« less
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Cool Science: Using Children's Art to Communicate Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.
2013-12-01
Cool Science is a K-12 Climate Change Science Art Competition. Working with teachers, parents, and students, the project aims to identify outstanding works of art by students about climate change and display the art throughout public mass transit. Cool Science has three distinct goals: 1) provide a convenient means for art and science teachers to incorporate climate change into their curriculum, 2) support teacher/student learning about climate change science, and 3) foster informal learning about climate change among people riding mass transit. By efficiently connecting formal and informal learning with one project, Cool Science is an innovative project that expands the way we engage and evaluate students. Using children's artwork to communicate complex scientific issues such as climate change is a powerful learning experience for the artist, teacher, and audience. Last year, Cool Science received nearly 600 entries from students representing 36 teachers from 32 school districts. Six winning entries went on public display with one highlighted each month from January through June. In addition, there were 6 Runner Ups and 12 Honorable Mentions. For the winning students, it is an unforgettable experience to see a nine-foot version of their artwork traveling around the streets on the side of a bus!
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Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.
2014-12-01
We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.
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Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.
Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein
2013-12-19
Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.
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Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science
Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein
2013-01-01
Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252
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Experimental Climate Change Modifies Degradative Succession in Boreal Peatland Fungal Communities.
Asemaninejad, Asma; Thorn, R Greg; Lindo, Zoë
2017-04-01
Peatlands play an important role in global climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 . Climate-driven changes in the structure of fungal communities in boreal peatlands that favor saprotrophic fungi can substantially impact carbon dynamics and nutrient cycling in these crucial ecosystems. In a mesocosm study using a full factorial design, 100 intact peat monoliths, complete with living Sphagnum and above-ground vascular vegetation, were subjected to three climate change variables (increased temperature, reduced water table, and elevated CO 2 concentrations). Peat litterbags were placed in mesocosms, and fungal communities in litterbags were monitored over 12 months to assess the impacts of climate change variables on peat-inhabiting fungi. Changes in fungal richness, diversity, and community composition were assessed using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). While general fungal richness reduced under warming conditions, Ascomycota exhibited higher diversity under increased temperature treatments over the course of the experiment. Both increased temperature and lowered water table position drove shifts in fungal community composition with a strong positive effect on endophytic and mycorrhizal fungi (including one operational taxonomic unit (OTU) tentatively identified as Barrenia panicia) and different groups of saprotrophs identified as Mortierella, Galerina, and Mycena. These shifts were observed during a predicted degradative succession in the decomposer community as different carbon substrates became available. Since fungi play a central role in peatland communities, increased abundances of saprotrophic fungi under warming conditions, at the expense of reduced fungal richness overall, may increase decomposition rates under future climate scenarios and could potentially aggravate the impacts of climate change.
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Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change
Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.
2017-01-01
Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.
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Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.
Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth
2013-08-02
Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.
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Description of Changes in Climatic Indices in USA over 25 Years (1989 – 2013)
The spatial distribution of long-term changes in climatic factors and its relation with vegetation cover, human health, hydrology and many other ecosystem processes help to identify the consequences of climatic factors changes. In recent studies, the significant changes of select...
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Indices of climate change in the Artic zone derived from radiosondes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Añel, J. A.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.
2003-04-01
The use of indices has been traditionally one of the main tools to identify climatic change. Here we present a study of the interannual variability of parameters derived from radiosonde data to study climate change in the artic zone. Trends, oscillations and the relationship with the principal climate variability mode for this region ( Northern Annular Mode) have been studied. We calculate the indices from the Upper Air Digital Files of the National Climatic Data Center (CARDS). We chose for our work the radiosonde data of stations over the studied region, with a temporal coverage of 27 years (1973-1998).
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K
2006-01-10
Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiplemore » climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.« less
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Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana
2018-02-27
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
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Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana
2018-01-01
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women’s views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. PMID:29440422
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A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change
Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul
2014-01-01
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.
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U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap
2010-04-01
Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the
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iSeeChange: Crowdsourced Climate Change Reporting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drapkin, J. K.
2012-12-01
Directly engaging local communities about their climate change experiences has never been more important. As weather and climate become more unpredictable, these experiences provide a baseline for community decisions, developing adaptation strategies, and planning for the future. Typically, climate change is documented in a top-down fashion: a scientist has a question, makes observations, and publishes a study; in the best case scenario, a journalist reports on the results; if there's time, a local anecdote is sought to put the results in a familiar context. iSeeChange, a public media project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, reports local environmental change in reverse and turns community questions and conversations with scientists into reported stories that promote opportunities to learn about climate change's affects on the environment and daily life. iSeeChange engages residents of the North Fork Valley region of western Colorado in a multiplatform conversation with scientists about how they perceive their environment is changing through the course of a year - season to season. By bringing together public radio, a mobile reporting and cellular engagement strategy, and a custom crowdsourcing multimedia platform, iSeeChange provides a central access point to collect observations (texts, photographs, voice recordings, and video), organize conversations and interviews with scientists, and report stories online and on air. In this way, iSeeChange is building a dynamic crowdsourced reservoir of information that can increase awareness of environmental problems and potentially disseminate useful information about climate change and successful adaptation strategies. Ultimately, by understanding the community's information needs in a localized question-driven context, the iSeeChange platform presents opportunities for the science community to better understand the value of information and develop better ways to tailor information for communities to use
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Climate Change: From Science to Practice.
Wheeler, Nicola; Watts, Nick
2018-03-01
Climate change poses a significant threat to human health. Understanding how climate science can be translated into public health practice is an essential first step in enabling robust adaptation and improving resiliency to climate change. Recent research highlights the importance of iterative approaches to public health adaptation to climate change, enabling uncertainties of health impacts and barriers to adaptation to be accounted for. There are still significant barriers to adaptation, which are context-specific and thus present unique challenges to public health practice. The implementation of flexible adaptation approaches, using frameworks targeted for public health, is key to ensuring robust adaptation to climate change in public health practice. The BRACE framework provides an excellent approach for health adaptation to climate change. Combining this with the insights provided and by the adaptation pathways approach allows for more deliberate accounting of long-term uncertainties. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into public health practice and planning is important in facilitating this approach and overcoming the significant barriers to effective adaptation. Yet, the immediate and future limits to adaptation provide clear justification for urgent and accelerated efforts to mitigate climate change.
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Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary
Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh
2014-01-01
Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has
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Can genomics deliver climate-change ready crops?
Varshney, Rajeev K; Singh, Vikas K; Kumar, Arvind; Powell, Wayne; Sorrells, Mark E
2018-04-20
Development of climate resilient crops with accelerating genetic gains in crops will require integration of different disciplines/technologies, to see the impact in the farmer's field. In this review, we summarize how we are utilizing our germplasm collections to identify superior alleles/haplotypes through NGS based sequencing approaches and how genomics-enabled technologies together with precise phenotyping are being used in crop breeding. Pre-breeding and genomics-assisted breeding approaches are contributing to the more efficient development of climate-resilient crops. It is anticipated that the integration of several disciplines/technologies will result in the delivery of climate change ready crops in less time. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
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Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.
Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj
2017-04-01
Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.
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Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change
Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.
2016-01-01
Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153
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Impacts of climate change on Oregon's coasts and estuaries: Chapter 6
Ruggiero,; Brown, Cheryl A.; Komar, Paul D.; Allan, Jonathan C.; Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee,
2010-01-01
In the following sections we attempt to summarize the most recent literature documenting historical changes as well as what may be expected to occur in response to climate change. Where little information is available we draw preliminary conclusions about the potential for specific impacts. When possible we highlight what research is needed to bridge knowledge gaps to improve our ability to identify climate change impacts more precisely, ultimately allowing for future projections.
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Climate change: what competencies and which medical education and training approaches?
Bell, Erica J
2010-04-30
Much research has been devoted to identifying healthcare needs in a climate-changing world. However, while there are now global and national policy statements about the importance of health workforce development for climate change, little has been published about what competencies might be demanded of practitioners in a climate-changing world. In such a context, this debate and discussion paper aims to explore the nature of key competencies and related opportunities for teaching climate change in medical education and training. Particular emphasis is made on preparation for practice in rural and remote regions likely to be greatly affected by climate change. The paper describes what kinds of competencies for climate change might be included in medical education and training. It explores which curricula, teaching, learning and assessment approaches might be involved. Rather than arguing for major changes to medical education and training, this paper explores well established precedents to offer practical suggestions for where a particular kind of literacy--eco-medical literacy--and related competencies could be naturally integrated into existing elements of medical education and training. The health effects of climate change have, generally, not yet been integrated into medical education and training systems. However, the necessary competencies could be taught by building on existing models, best practice and innovative traditions in medicine. Even in crowded curricula, climate change offers an opportunity to reinforce and extend understandings of how interactions between people and place affect health.
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The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thepaut, Jean-Noel
2016-04-01
Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.
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Climate change and children's health--a call for research on what works to protect children.
Xu, Zhiwei; Sheffield, Perry E; Hu, Wenbiao; Su, Hong; Yu, Weiwei; Qi, Xin; Tong, Shilu
2012-09-10
Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children's health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children's health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children's vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children's disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children's disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries; and (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children's health perspective.
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Identifying misbehaving models using baseline climate variance
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schultz, Colin
2011-06-01
The majority of projections made using general circulation models (GCMs) are conducted to help tease out the effects on a region, or on the climate system as a whole, of changing climate dynamics. Sun et al., however, used model runs from 20 different coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs to try to understand a different aspect of climate projections: how bias correction, model selection, and other statistical techniques might affect the estimated outcomes. As a case study, the authors focused on predicting the potential change in precipitation for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a 1-million- square- kilometer area in southeastern Australia that suffered a recent decade of drought that left many wondering about the potential impacts of climate change on this important agricultural region. The authors first compared the precipitation predictions made by the models with 107 years of observations, and they then made bias corrections to adjust the model projections to have the same statistical properties as the observations. They found that while the spread of the projected values was reduced, the average precipitation projection for the end of the 21st century barely changed. Further, the authors determined that interannual variations in precipitation for the MDB could be explained by random chance, where the precipitation in a given year was independent of that in previous years.
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Forest disturbances under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.
2017-06-01
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.
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Forest disturbances under climate change
Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.
2017-01-01
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124
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Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.; Havlík, Petr; Ahammad, Helal; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, Page; Von Lampe, Martin; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason d’Croz, Daniel; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Schmid, Erwin; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Willenbockel, Dirk
2014-01-01
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. PMID:24344285
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The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.
Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun
2011-10-18
Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
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Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fetzer, Eric
2007-01-01
This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.
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Climate Change, Climate Justice, and Environmental Health: Implications for the Nursing Profession.
Nicholas, Patrice K; Breakey, Suellen
2017-11-01
Climate change is an emerging challenge linked to negative outcomes for the environment and human health. Since the 1960s, there has been a growing recognition of the need to address climate change and the impact of greenhouse gas emissions implicated in the warming of our planet. There are also deleterious health outcomes linked to complex climate changes that are emerging in the 21st century. This article addresses the social justice issues associated with climate change and human health and discussion of climate justice. Discussion paper. A literature search of electronic databases was conducted for articles, texts, and documents related to climate change, climate justice, and human health. The literature suggests that those who contribute least to global warming are those who will disproportionately be affected by the negative health outcomes of climate change. The concept of climate justice and the role of the Mary Robinson Foundation-Climate Justice are discussed within a framework of nursing's professional responsibility and the importance of social justice for the world's people. The nursing profession must take a leadership role in engaging in policy and advocacy discussions in addressing the looming problems associated with climate change. Nursing organizations have adopted resolutions and engaged in leadership roles to address climate change at the local, regional, national, and global level. It is essential that nurses embrace concepts related to social justice and engage in the policy debate regarding the deleterious effects on human health related to global warming and climate change. Nursing's commitment to social justice offers an opportunity to offer significant global leadership in addressing the health implications related to climate change. Recognizing the negative impacts of climate change on well-being and the underlying socioeconomic reasons for their disproportionate and inequitable distribution can expand and optimize the profession's role
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Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.
McDermott-Levy, Ruth; Jackman-Murphy, Kathryn P; Leffers, Jeanne M; Jordan, Lisa
2018-03-28
Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hall, Dorothy K.
1989-01-01
Discusses recent changes in the Earth's climate. Summarizes reports on changes related to carbon dioxide, temperature, rain, sea level, and glaciers in polar areas. Describes the present effort to measure the changes. Lists 16 references. (YP)
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Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.
2015-01-01
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
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Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.
Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad
2017-08-11
A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu
2015-01-01
Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…
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Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.
2018-01-01
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.
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Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.
Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick
2018-03-13
Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.
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Asplund, Therese
2016-07-01
While previous research into understandings of climate change has usually examined general public perceptions, this study offers an audience-specific departure point. This article analyses how Swedish farmers perceive climate change and how they jointly shape their understandings. The agricultural sector is of special interest because it both contributes to and is directly affected by climate change. Through focus group discussions with Swedish farmers, this study finds that (1) farmers relate to and understand climate change through their own experiences, (2) climate change is understood either as a natural process subject to little or no human influence or as anthropogenic and (3) various communication tools contribute to the formation of natural and anthropogenic climate change frames. The article ends by discussing frame resonance and frame clash in public understanding of climate change and by comparing potential similarities and differences in how various segments of the public make sense of climate change. © The Author(s) 2014.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karmalkar, A.; Sexton, D.; Murphy, J.
2017-12-01
We present exploratory work towards developing an efficient strategy to select variants of a state-of-the-art but expensive climate model suitable for climate projection studies. The strategy combines information from a set of idealized perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) experiments, and uses two criteria as basis to select model variants for a PPE suitable for future projections: a) acceptable model performance at two different timescales, and b) maintaining diversity in model response to climate change. We demonstrate that there is a strong relationship between model errors at weather and climate timescales for a variety of key variables. This relationship is used to filter out parts of parameter space that do not give credible simulations of historical climate, while minimizing the impact on ranges in forcings and feedbacks that drive model responses to climate change. We use statistical emulation to explore the parameter space thoroughly, and demonstrate that about 90% can be filtered out without affecting diversity in global-scale climate change responses. This leads to identification of plausible parts of parameter space from which model variants can be selected for projection studies.
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Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer
2015-04-01
Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their
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Social vulnerability to climate change in primary producers: A typology approach
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Adaptation in agro-ecological systems will be important for moderating the impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessments provide the basis for developing strategies to reduce social vulnerability and plan for climate adaptation. Primary industries have been identified as the most vulnerable i...
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Land degradation and climate change: building climate resilience in agriculture
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Land degradation and climate change pose enormous risks to global food security. Land degradation increases the vulnerability of agroecological systems to climate change and reduces the effectiveness of adaptation options. Yet these interactions have largely been omitted from climate impact assessme...
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Climate-change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity.
Cacciapaglia, Chris; van Woesik, Robert
2016-03-01
Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate-change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea-surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37°N and 37°S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (W m(-2) ) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20-30°N and 15-25°S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30 m depth) - habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate-change-associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to <250 μmol m(-2) s(-1) , and predict that 16% of reef-coral habitat ≤30 m will preclude coral growth and reef development. Thus, protecting the turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study, particularly in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the northern Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands (Japan), eastern Vietnam, western and eastern Australia, New Caledonia, the northern Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, should become part of a judicious global strategy for reef-coral persistence under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V
2013-01-01
A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.
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Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.
Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas
2012-04-01
The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.
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Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases
Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas
2011-01-01
The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720
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Dickinson, Janis L.; McLeod, Poppy; Bloomfield, Robert; Allred, Shorna
2016-01-01
Jonathan Haidt’s Moral Foundations Theory identifies five moral axes that can influence human motivation to take action on vital problems like climate change. The theory focuses on five moral foundations, including compassion, fairness, purity, authority, and ingroup loyalty; these have been found to differ between liberals and conservatives as well as Democrats and Republicans. Here we show, based on the Cornell National Social Survey (USA), that valuations of compassion and fairness were strong, positive predictors of willingness to act on climate change, whereas purity had a non-significant tendency in the positive direction (p = 0.07). Ingroup loyalty and authority were not supported as important predictor variables using model selection (ΔAICc__). Compassion and fairness were more highly valued by liberals, whereas purity, authority, and in-group loyalty were more highly valued by conservatives. As in previous studies, participants who were younger, more liberal, and reported greater belief in climate change, also showed increased willingness to act on climate change. Our research supports the potential importance of moral foundations as drivers of intentions with respect to climate change action, and suggests that compassion, fairness, and to a lesser extent, purity, are potential moral pathways for personal action on climate change in the USA. PMID:27760207
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Wenxin; Jansson, Christer; Miller, Paul; Smith, Ben; Samuelsson, Patrick
2014-05-01
albedo feedback dominates simulated warming in spring in all three scenarios, while in summer, evapotranspiration feedback, governing the partitioning of the return energy flux from the surface to the atmosphere into latent and sensible heat, exerts evaporative cooling effects, the magnitude of which depends on the severity of climate change, in turn driven by the underlying GHG emissions pathway, resulting in shift in the sign of net biophysical at higher levels of warming. Spatially, western Siberia is identified as the most susceptible location, experiencing the potential to reverse biophysical feedbacks in all seasons. We further analyze how the pattern of vegetation shifts triggers different signs of net effects of biophysical feedbacks.
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Climate change, wine, and conservation.
Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J
2013-04-23
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.
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Climate change, wine, and conservation
Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A.; Hijmans, Robert J.
2013-01-01
Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects. PMID:23569231
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Armal, S.; Devineni, N.; Khanbilvardi, R.
2017-12-01
This study presents a systematic analysis for identifying and attributing trends in the annual frequency of extreme rainfall events across the contiguous United States to climate change and climate variability modes. A Bayesian multilevel model is developed for 1,244 stations simultaneously to test the null hypothesis of no trend and verify two alternate hypotheses: Trend can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies, or to a combination of cyclical climate modes with varying quasi-periodicities and global surface temperature anomalies. The Bayesian multilevel model provides the opportunity to pool information across stations and reduce the parameter estimation uncertainty, hence identifying the trends better. The choice of the best alternate hypotheses is made based on Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion, a Bayesian pointwise predictive accuracy measure. Statistically significant time trends are observed in 742 of the 1,244 stations. Trends in 409 of these stations can be attributed to changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are predominantly found in the Southeast and Northeast climate regions. The trends in 274 of these stations can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillations, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation along with changes in global surface temperature anomalies. These stations are mainly found in the Northwest, West and Southwest climate regions.
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Rapid adaptation to climate change.
Hancock, Angela M
2016-08-01
In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.
2008-12-01
variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.
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USING DIVERSE EXPERTISE TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE FISHERIES SCIENCE.
Mulvaney, Kate K; Druschke, Caroline Gottschalk
2017-11-15
As climate change continues to impact New England's coastal ecosystems and their related fisheries, the need for measuring, projecting, interpreting, and applying those impacts for adaptive management is expanding. In New England, different types of formal and informal research efforts that involve collaboration between the fishing community and traditional university and government researchers continue to develop to address some of this need. To better understand the opportunities and challenges that these collaborative research efforts face, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 18 members of the fishing and research communities who are engaged in advancing New England climate change and fisheries science. Participants showed clear concern for the impacts of climate change on New England fisheries and about the insufficient availability of the necessary science to manage for those impacts. They also noted a number of challenges in collaborative research, including poor communication and a lack of trust among fishers, researchers, and decision makers, as well as a lack of perceived credibility for research coming out of the fishing community. We identify a number of opportunities for improving collaboration and communication among these groups, which could build upon the identified value of existing collaborations.
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A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability
Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.
2013-01-01
We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722
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An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland
Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy
2018-01-01
Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.
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Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.
Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa
2009-05-01
Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.
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Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.
Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc
2012-01-01
Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.
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Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation
2011-01-01
Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for
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Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.
Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A
2011-05-21
Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on
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Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nelson, Gerald; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and will thus be directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments inmore » yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway that result in end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter. The mean biophysical impact on crop yield with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17 percent reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11 percent, increase area of major crops by 12 percent, and reduce consumption by 2 percent. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences includes model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.
2012-12-01
Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the
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America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.
2010-12-01
At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The
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Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas
2012-01-01
Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and
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The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence.
van der Linden, Sander L; Leiserowitz, Anthony A; Feinberg, Geoffrey D; Maibach, Edward W
2015-01-01
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.
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The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence
van der Linden, Sander L.; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.; Feinberg, Geoffrey D.; Maibach, Edward W.
2015-01-01
There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change. PMID:25714347
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Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan
2012-01-01
Background Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed
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Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.
Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah
2012-09-03
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and
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Climate change portal established
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Showstack, Randy
2011-12-01
The World Bank has developed a Climate Change Knowledge Portal as a kind of “onestop shop” for climate-related information, data, and tools. The portal provides access to global, regional, and national data and reports with an aim to providing a resource for learning about climate information and increasing knowledge on climate change—related actions. For more information, see http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/.
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An innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education: Sustainability in the workplace
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson, Z. P.
2009-04-01
Climate change and climate science are a core component of environment-related degree programmes, but there are many programmes, for example business studies, that have clear linkages to climate change and sustainability issues which often have no or limited coverage of the subject. Although an in-depth coverage of climate science is not directly applicable to all programmes of study, the subject of climate change is of great relevance to all of society. Graduates from the higher education system are often viewed as society's ‘future leaders', hence it can be argued that it is important that all graduates are conversant in the issues of climate change and strategies for moving towards a sustainable future. Rather than an in depth understanding of climate science it may be more important that a wider range of students are educated in strategies for positive action. One aspect of climate change education that may be missing, including in programmes where climate change is a core topic, is practical strategies, skills and knowledge for reducing our impact on the climate system. This presentation outlines an innovative approach to undergraduate climate change education which focuses on the strategies for moving towards sustainability, but which is supported by climate science understanding taught within this context. Students gain knowledge and understanding of the motivations and strategies for businesses to improve their environmental performance, and develop skills in identifying areas of environmental improvement and recommending actions for change. These skills will allow students to drive positive change in their future careers. Such courses are relevant to students of all disciplines and can give the opportunity to students for whom climate change education is not a core part of their programme, to gain greater understanding of the issues and an awareness of practical changes that can be made at all levels to move towards a more sustainable society.
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Western water and climate change.
Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris
2015-12-01
The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries
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The economics of abrupt climate change.
Perrings, Charles
2003-09-15
The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.
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Global climate change and children's health.
Shea, Katherine M
2007-11-01
There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to
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A Meta-Analysis of Local Climate Change Adaptation Actions ...
Local governments are beginning to take steps to address the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and heat events. However, we do not have a clear understanding of what local governments are doing -- the extent to which they expect climate change to affect their community, the types of actions they have in place to address climate change, and the resources at their disposal for implementation. Several studies have been conducted by academics, non-governmental organizations, and public agencies to assess the status of local climate change adaptation. This project collates the findings from dozens of such studies to conduct a meta-analysis of local climate change adaptation actions. The studies will be characterized along several dimensions, including (a) methods used, (b) timing and geographic scope, (c) topics covered, (d) types of adaptation actions identified, (e) implementation status, and (f) public engagement and environmental justice dimensions considered. The poster presents the project's rationale and approach and some illustrative findings from early analyses. [Note: The document being reviewed is an abstract in which a poster is being proposed. The poster will enter clearance if the abstract is accepted] The purpose of this poster is to present the research framework and approaches I am developing for my ORISE postdoctoral project, and to get feedback on early analyses.
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Global Climate Change and Children's Health.
Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E
2015-11-01
Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.
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The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis
Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun
2011-01-01
Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:21969578
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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-03-23
... responsibilities is seeking public review and comment on a draft report to Congress titled ``Strengthening the... report reviews key issues related to freshwater resource data and climate change and identifies next... Sustainability (CENRS) and the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and its Water Resources Workgroup...
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An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.
Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George
2014-11-01
Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.
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Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long
2014-01-01
Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...
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Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world.
Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R
2017-01-01
Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; ...
2018-01-01
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less
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Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine
Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4–6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with themore » largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Lastly, our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.
2003-04-01
Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew
2012-01-01
Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…
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Robert L. Deal; Crystal Raymond; David L. Peterson; Cindy Glick
2010-01-01
There are a number of misunderstandings about âecosystem servicesâ and âclimate changeâ and these terms are often used incorrectly to describe different concepts. These concepts address different issues and objectives but have some important integrating themes relating to carbon and carbon sequestration. In this paper, we provide definitions and distinctions between...
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Climate Change and the Federal Budget
1998-08-01
in the area of global climate change and to review current federal spending programs and tax policies that relate to climate change . The memorandum...policymakers as they consider options to respond to international proposals for reducing the threat of climate change . In accordance with CBO’s mandate
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Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.
McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E
2017-08-01
Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M
2017-04-01
Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.
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Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.
Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard
2009-01-01
further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.
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Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kiehl, J. T.
2015-12-01
Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.
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Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hildebrand, Peter H.
2011-01-01
The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.
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Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Skiles, J. W.
1995-01-01
Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.
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2011-12-01
Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.
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A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Behzadi, Jalal
2016-07-01
Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS
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Disciplinary reporting affects the interpretation of climate change impacts in global oceans.
Hauser, Donna D W; Tobin, Elizabeth D; Feifel, Kirsten M; Shah, Vega; Pietri, Diana M
2016-01-01
Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems, but different investigative approaches in physical, chemical, and biological disciplines may influence interpretations of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Here, we review the ocean change literature from 2007 to 2012 based on 461 of the most highly cited studies in physical and chemical oceanography and three biological subdisciplines. Using highly cited studies, we focus on research that has shaped recent discourse on climate-driven ocean change. Our review identified significant differences in spatial and temporal scales of investigation among disciplines. Physical/chemical studies had a median duration of 29 years (n = 150) and covered the greatest study areas (median 1.41 × 10(7) km(2) , n = 148). Few biological studies were conducted over similar spatial and temporal scales (median 8 years, n = 215; median 302 km(2) , n = 196), suggesting a more limited ability to separate climate-related responses from natural variability. We linked physical/chemical and biological disciplines by tracking studies examining biological responses to changing ocean conditions. Of the 545 biological responses recorded, a single physical or chemical stressor was usually implicated as the cause (59%), with temperature as the most common primary stressor (44%). The most frequently studied biological responses were changes in physiology (31%) and population abundance (30%). Differences in disciplinary studies, as identified in this review, can ultimately influence how researchers interpret climate-related impacts in marine systems. We identified research gaps and the need for more discourse in (1) the Indian and other Southern Hemisphere ocean basins; (2) research themes such as archaea, bacteria, viruses, mangroves, turtles, and ocean acidification; (3) physical and chemical stressors such as dissolved oxygen, salinity, and upwelling; and (4) adaptive responses of marine organisms to climate-driven ocean change. Our findings reveal
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Ocean Observations of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chambers, Don
2016-01-01
The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.
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Climate change and food security.
Gregory, P J; Ingram, J S I; Brklacich, M
2005-11-29
Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their
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Climate change and food security
Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M
2005-01-01
Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their
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Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes
Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.
2014-01-01
Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.
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Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector
2012-01-01
Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs
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An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation
Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George
2014-01-01
Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public
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Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.
Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid
2017-10-01
Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the
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Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis
Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan
2017-01-01
Background This review assessed Ethiopia’s existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. Methods The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Results Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Conclusion Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts
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Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis.
Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan
2016-01-01
This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health
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Ground Water and Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike;
2013-01-01
As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
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Ground water and climate change
Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard F.; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger
2012-01-01
As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.
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Parasite vulnerability to climate change: an evidence-based functional trait approach
Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Clements, Chris F.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Harris, Nyeema C.; Phillips, Anna J.
2017-01-01
Despite the number of virulent pathogens that are projected to benefit from global change and to spread in the next century, we suggest that a combination of coextinction risk and climate sensitivity could make parasites at least as extinction prone as any other trophic group. However, the existing interdisciplinary toolbox for identifying species threatened by climate change is inadequate or inappropriate when considering parasites as conservation targets. A functional trait approach can be used to connect parasites' ecological role to their risk of disappearance, but this is complicated by the taxonomic and functional diversity of many parasite clades. Here, we propose biological traits that may render parasite species particularly vulnerable to extinction (including high host specificity, complex life cycles and narrow climatic tolerance), and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of parasite biology and ecology. By doing so, we provide criteria to identify vulnerable parasite species and triage parasite conservation efforts. PMID:28280551
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Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River
Wildhaber, Mark L.
2010-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.
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Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide
2017-04-01
Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.
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Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier
2015-10-01
Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.
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Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier
2015-01-01
Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042
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Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.
Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier
2015-10-27
Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.
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Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.
Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A
2013-05-01
The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
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Addressing socioeconomic and political challenges posed by climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernando, Harindra Joseph; Klaic, Zvjezdana Bencetic
2011-08-01
NATO Advanced Research Workshop: Climate Change, Human Health and National Security; Dubrovnik, Croatia, 28-30 April 2011; Climate change has been identified as one of the most serious threats to humanity. It not only causes sea level rise, drought, crop failure, vector-borne diseases, extreme events, degradation of water and air quality, heat waves, and other phenomena, but it is also a threat multiplier wherein concatenation of multiple events may lead to frequent human catastrophes and intranational and international conflicts. In particular, urban areas may bear the brunt of climate change because of the amplification of climate effects that cascade down from global to urban scales, but current modeling and downscaling capabilities are unable to predict these effects with confidence. These were the main conclusions of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security program. Thirty-two invitees from 17 counties, including leading modelers; natural, political, and social scientists; engineers; politicians; military experts; urban planners; industry analysts; epidemiologists; and health care professionals, parsed the topic on a common platform.
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Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Boon, Helen J.
2015-01-01
Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain
2011-12-01
Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.
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Climate Change Education in Earth System Science
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg
2013-04-01
The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory
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Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd
2013-01-01
Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...
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How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?
Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P
2012-08-01
Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chou, J.
2006-12-01
The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C
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Conservation and adaptation to climate change.
Brooke, Cassandra
2008-12-01
The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.
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Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions.
Ikeda, Dana H; Max, Tamara L; Allan, Gerard J; Lau, Matthew K; Shuster, Stephen M; Whitham, Thomas G
2017-01-01
We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species' ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species' niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12-fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey
2015-04-01
Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and
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Climate change threatens European conservation areas
Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried
2011-01-01
Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P<0.001), but Natura 2000 areas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141
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Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iglesias, A.
2011-12-01
The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed
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Mental health effects of climate change.
Padhy, Susanta Kumar; Sarkar, Sidharth; Panigrahi, Mahima; Paul, Surender
2015-01-01
We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.
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A changing climate of skepticism: The factors shaping climate change coverage in the US press.
Schmid-Petri, Hannah; Adam, Silke; Schmucki, Ivo; Häussler, Thomas
2017-05-01
Skepticism toward climate change has a long tradition in the United States. We focus on mass media as the conveyors of the image of climate change and ask: Is climate change skepticism still a characteristic of US print media coverage? If so, to what degree and in what form? And which factors might pave the way for skeptics entering mass media debates? We conducted a quantitative content analysis of US print media during one year (1 June 2012 to 31 May 2013). Our results show that the debate has changed: fundamental forms of climate change skepticism (such as denial of anthropogenic causes) have been abandoned in the coverage, being replaced by more subtle forms (such as the goal to avoid binding regulations). We find no evidence for the norm of journalistic balance, nor do our data support the idea that it is the conservative press that boosts skepticism.
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Wan, Jizhong
2016-01-01
Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373
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Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation
Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar
2012-01-01
To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...
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Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A
2012-03-01
Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.
2015-01-01
While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…
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Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.
Rannow, Sven; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Albrecht, Juliane; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Förster, Michael; Heiland, Stefan; Janauer, Georg; Morecroft, Mike D; Neubert, Marco; Sarbu, Anca; Sienkiewicz, Jadwiga
2014-10-01
The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.
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Plant developmental responses to climate change.
Gray, Sharon B; Brady, Siobhan M
2016-11-01
Climate change is multi-faceted, and includes changing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Here, we focus on the effects of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, rising temperature, and drought stress and their interaction on plant developmental processes in leaves, roots, and in reproductive structures. While in some cases these responses are conserved across species, such as decreased root elongation, perturbation of root growth angle and reduced seed yield in response to drought, or an increase in root biomass in shallow soil in response to elevated CO 2 , most responses are variable within and between species and are dependent on developmental stage. These variable responses include species-specific thresholds that arrest development of reproductive structures, reduce root growth rate and the rate of leaf initiation and expansion in response to elevated temperature. Leaf developmental responses to elevated CO 2 vary by cell type and by species. Variability also exists between C 3 and C 4 species in response to elevated CO 2 , especially in terms of growth and seed yield stimulation. At the molecular level, significantly less is understood regarding conservation and variability in molecular mechanisms underlying these traits. Abscisic acid-mediated changes in cell wall expansion likely underlie reductions in growth rate in response to drought, and changes in known regulators of flowering time likely underlie altered reproductive transitions in response to elevated temperature and CO 2 . Genes that underlie most other organ or tissue-level responses have largely only been identified in a single species in response to a single stress and their level of conservation is unknown. We conclude that there is a need for further research regarding the molecular mechanisms of plant developmental responses to climate change factors in general, and
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Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.
Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J
2018-06-01
Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.
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A Global Framework for Monitoring Phenological Responses to Climate Change
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
White, Michael A; Hoffman, Forrest M; Hargrove, William Walter
2005-01-01
Remote sensing of vegetation phenology is an important method with which to monitor terrestrial responses to climate change, but most approaches include signals from multiple forcings, such as mixed phenological signals from multiple biomes, urbanization, political changes, shifts in agricultural practices, and disturbances. Consequently, it is difficult to extract a clear signal from the usually assumed forcing: climate change. Here, using global 8 km 1982 to 1999 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and an eight-element monthly climatology, we identified pixels whose wavelet power spectrum was consistently dominated by annual cycles and then created phenologically and climatically self-similar clusters, whichmore » we term phenoregions. We then ranked and screened each phenoregion as a function of landcover homogeneity and consistency, evidence of human impacts, and political diversity. Remaining phenoregions represented areas with a minimized probability of non-climatic forcings and form elemental units for long-term phenological monitoring.« less
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The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neelin, J. D.
2017-12-01
Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.
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Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.
2005-03-18
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Westernmore » Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders
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How Do We Communicate Both the Knowns and Unknowns of Climate Change?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamilton, P.; Selin, C.; Garfinkle, R.
2011-12-01
The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty about these aspects of climate change and their impacts presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. The Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) in partnership with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA proposes to create a major national touring science exhibition that focuses both on informing the public on what is known about climate change and on how to plan for the future in light of the uncertainties identified above. The scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding where, when and by how much climate will change. Yet the civic space for such conversations is circumscribed. Various interest groups are actively engaged in sowing doubt and confusion in the public's mind about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, some in the scientific community find the mention of uncertainty in association with climate change as an anathema because of concerns about potentially eroding public understanding and acceptance of the reality of anthropogenic climate change. SMM and its partners are interested in the perspectives of the scientific community with respect to the proposed exhibition. This session will engage participants in a dialog around a number of questions: How should we discuss the uncertainties of climate change while still communicating the scientific consensus on climate change? How do we gain the confidence of the scientific community to get
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Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.
Visschers, Vivianne H M
2018-01-01
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Climate Change Education for General Education Faculty
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ozbay, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Fuoco, M. J.; Phalen, L.; Harcourt, P.; Veron, D. E.; Rogers, M.; Merrill, J.
2016-12-01
As MADE-CLEAR scientists, our ultimate goal is to inform the public about climate change through education. Education will provide citizens with important tools for adapting and coping against climate change through the understanding of the cause and effects of climate change, and the role they play in counteracting these effects. MADE-CLEAR is connecting educators with resources such as lesson plans and hands-on activities so they can easily incorporate climate change into their curriculum. This past year Delaware State University held workshops for Chemistry and Math faculty to provide information and resources to help integrate climate change education into their classes. We presented them with information on climate change and demonstrated several laboratory activities that would be applicable to their classes. Such activities included a sea level rise graphing exercise, ocean acidification pH demonstration, ocean acidification's effect on organism's demonstration, carbon dioxide variability and heat trapping gas simulation. The goals of the workshops are to implement a multidisciplinary approach in climate change education. Workshops are prepared hands-on heavy followed by the lectures and video resources. Pre- and post-workshop assessment questions on the workshop contents are provided to monitor faculty understanding of the climate change content. In doing so, we aim to improve climate literacy in our higher education students.
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Climate change and forest fires.
Flannigan, M D; Stocks, B J; Wotton, B M
2000-11-15
This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2 x CO2 seasonal severity rating (SSR) over present day SSR were calculated for the means and maximums for North America. The results suggest that the SSR will increase by 10-50% over most of North America; although, there are regions of little change or where the SSR may decrease by the middle of the next century. Increased SSRs should translate into increased forest fire activity. Thus, forest fires could be viewed as an agent of change for US forests as the fire regime will respond rapidly to climate warming. This change in the fire regime has the potential to overshadow the direct effects of climate change on species distribution and migration.
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Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity ...
Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on air temperatures and associated microclimatic changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of species and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.In this workshop, we will showcase the latest science on climate refugia and participants will interact through small group discussions, relevant examples, and facilitated dialogue to i
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Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.
Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W
1993-03-01
Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.
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Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.
1993-01-01
Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan
2017-04-01
Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.
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Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dewart, Jean Marie
Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual modelmore » of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).« less
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Making climate change tangible for strategic adaptation planning: The Climate Corridor Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Elguera Hilares, Agustin; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar
2017-04-01
Climate change is a global phenomenon and difficult to grasp. Although its importance is generally acknowledged, impacts of (future) climate change on human activities are in many cases not taken into account explicitly, in particular when planning development projects. This is due to technical and conceptual challenges, missing financial and human resources and competing priorities. Neglecting climate change can become problematic, if a proposed activity requires specific climatological conditions under which it becomes feasible, a simple example being crop cultivation that needs certain temperature an d precipitation ranges. Comparing such ``climate corridors'' to future climate projections provides an intuitive and low-cost yet quantitative means for assessing needs for, and viability of, adaptation activities under climate change - a "poor man's approach" to climate suitability analysis. A chief advantage of this approach is its modest demand on data. Three case studies from Pakistan, Peru and Tajikistan show that climate corridor analysis can deliver robust results and can be used to efficiently communicate risks and challenges of climate change to partners and stakeholders in the developing countries.
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NASA Nice Climate Change Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.
2013-12-01
Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate
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Korkala, Essi A E; Hugg, Timo T; Jaakkola, Jouni J K
2014-01-01
Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns.
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Korkala, Essi A. E.; Hugg, Timo T.; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.
2014-01-01
Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns. PMID:25054549
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Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P
2013-04-01
According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.
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A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation ...
The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empirical work evaluating urban adaptation planning processes has been relatively piecemeal. Existing assessments of current experience with urban adaptation provide necessarily broad generalizations based on the available peer-reviewed literature. This paper uses a meta-analysis of U.S. cities’ current experience with urban adaptation planning drawing from 54 sources that include peer-reviewed literature, government reports, white papers, and reports published by non-governmental organizations. The analysis specifically evaluates the institutional support structures being developed for urban climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that adaptation planning is driven by a desire to reduce vulnerability and often catalyzes new collaborations and coordination mechanisms in urban governance. As a result, building capacity for urban climate change adaptation planning requires a focus not only on city governments themselves but also on the complex horizontal and vertical networks that have arisen around such efforts. Existing adaptation planning often lacks attention to equity issues, social vulnerability, and the influence of non-climatic factors on vulnerability. Engaging city govern
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Knowing climate change, embodying climate praxis: experiential knowledge in southern Appalachia
Jennifer L. Rice; Brian J. Burke; Nik Heynen
2015-01-01
Whether used to support or impede action, scientific knowledge is now, more than ever, the primary framework for political discourse on climate change. As a consequence, science has become a hegemonic way of knowing climate change by mainstream climate politics, which not only limits the actors and actions deemed legitimate in climate politics but also silences...
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Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.
Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E
2017-12-31
Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Wetlands in a changing climate: Science, policy and management
Moomaw, William R.; Chmura, G.L.; Davies, Gillian T.; Finlayson, Max; Middleton, Beth A.; Natali, Sue M.; Perry, James; Roulet, Nigel; Sutton-Grier, Ariana
2018-01-01
Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.
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Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?
2007-11-06
climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author
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Climate change-related migration and infectious disease.
McMichael, Celia
2015-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on both human migration and population health, including infectious disease. It will amplify and alter migration pathways, and will contribute to the changing ecology and transmission dynamics of infectious disease. However there has been limited consideration of the intersections between migration and health in the context of a changing climate. This article argues that climate-change related migration - in conjunction with other drivers of migration - will contribute to changing profiles of infectious disease. It considers infectious disease risks for different climate-related migration pathways, including: forced displacement, slow-onset migration particularly to urban-poor areas, planned resettlement, and labor migration associated with climate change adaptation initiatives. Migration can reduce vulnerability to climate change, but it is critical to better understand and respond to health impacts - including infectious diseases - for migrant populations and host communities.
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Corn, P.S.
2005-01-01
Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species
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Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel
2017-06-01
Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.
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Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.
2008-12-01
Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.
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English, Paul B; Sinclair, Amber H; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin
2009-11-01
To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity.
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India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.
Pandve, Harshal T
2009-04-01
Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.
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Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.
McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B
2014-06-01
Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P < 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P < 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.
2016-12-01
In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei
This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the
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Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland fishes and fisheries: knowns and needs
Paukert, Craig P.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Beard, T. Douglas; Chen, Yushun; Cooke, Steven J.; Cooperman, Michael S.; Cowx, Ian G.; Infante, Dana M.; Ibengwe, Lilian; Myers, Bonnie; Nguyen, Phu Hoa; Winfield, Ian J.
2017-01-01
To date, there are few comprehensive assessments of how climate change affects inland finfish, fisheries, and aquaculture at a global scale, but one is necessary to identify research needs and commonalities across regions and to help guide decision making and funding priorities. Broadly, the consequences of climate change on inland fishes will impact global food security, the livelihoods of people who depend on inland capture and recreational fisheries. However, understanding how climate change will affect inland fishes and fisheries has lagged behind marine assessments. Building from a North American inland fisheries assessment, we convened an expert panel from seven countries to provide a first-step to a framework for determining how to approach an assessment of how climate change may affect inland fishes, capture fisheries, and aquaculture globally. Starting with the small group helped frame the key questions (e.g., who is the audience? What is the best approach and spatial scale?). Data gaps identified by the group include: the tolerances of inland fisheries to changes in temperature, stream flows, salinity, and other environmental factors linked to climate change, and the adaptive capacity of fishes and fisheries to adjust to these changes. These questions are difficult to address, but long-term and large-scale datasets are becoming more readily available as a means to test hypotheses related to climate change. We hope this perspective will help researchers and decision makers identify research priorities and provide a framework to help sustain inland fish populations and fisheries for the diversity of users around the globe.
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Jordan, Rebecca; Hoffmann, Ary A; Dillon, Shannon K; Prober, Suzanne M
2017-11-01
Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty-one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species' evolutionary potential. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.
Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried
2016-06-01
Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring
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Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy.
Moulton, Anthony Drummond; Schramm, Paul John
Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity. Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted. Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations. Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity. A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic plan to create and sustain that capacity.
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Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy
Moulton, Anthony Drummond; Schramm, Paul John
2017-01-01
Context Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity. Objective Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted. Methods Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations. Findings Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity. Conclusions A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Bolin, B.
2007-11-15
In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less
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Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.
Runting, Rebecca K; Bryan, Brett A; Dee, Laura E; Maseyk, Fleur J F; Mandle, Lisa; Hamel, Perrine; Wilson, Kerrie A; Yetka, Kathleen; Possingham, Hugh P; Rhodes, Jonathan R
2017-01-01
Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Australian community members' attitudes toward climate change impacts at the Great Barrier Reef
Carena J. vanRiper; Gerard Kyle; Jee In Yoon; Stephen G. Sutton
2012-01-01
This research identified homogenous groups of Australian community members that share similar attitudes toward climate change impacts within the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). A questionnaire was administered to a random sample of adult residents living near the GBRWHA (n = 1,623) in order to assess public awareness of climate change, concern about...
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Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change
Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid
2016-01-01
Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330
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Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.
2013-12-01
Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about