Sample records for identified high risk

  1. Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

    PubMed

    Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

    2003-11-01

    We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

  2. Predicting the unpredictable? Identifying high-risk versus low-risk parents with intellectual disabilities.

    PubMed

    McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

    2010-09-01

    This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parenting; and (iii) the impact of partner relationships on parental competency and risk status. Secondary data analysis was conducted on data gathered from 101 parents with IDs and 172 of their children, all of whom had been referred to a specialist parenting service over a 5 year period. Cross-tabulations were applied to the data to examine causal processes and to improve general understanding of the risks associated with families. Contrary to popular expectations IQ levels of the main parent, relationship status, parental age, employment, amenities, valued support and parents' perception of need were not identified as contributory factors distinguishing 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parents. Instead, 'high-risk' parenting associated more with parental reports of childhood trauma (emotional abuse and physical neglect in particular), parents' having additional special needs in addition to their IDs or parents who were raising a child with special needs. Other 'high-risk' factors identified related to the male partners of mothers with IDs, many of whom did not have IDs and/or whose histories included anti-social behaviors or criminality. The study identified some high-risk variables among parents with IDs that can distinguish them from low-risk parents with IDs. These findings generate challenges for agencies who attempt to capture the needs of parents with IDs and who endeavour to provide services to families deemed to be "at risk." These outcomes will be of special interest to the courts, especially when parents with IDs are involved in care proceedings. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Predicting the Unpredictable? Identifying High-Risk versus Low-Risk Parents with Intellectual Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates "high-risk"…

  4. BCL-2 system analysis identifies high-risk colorectal cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Lindner, Andreas U; Salvucci, Manuela; Morgan, Clare; Monsefi, Naser; Resler, Alexa J; Cremona, Mattia; Curry, Sarah; Toomey, Sinead; O'Byrne, Robert; Bacon, Orna; Stühler, Michael; Flanagan, Lorna; Wilson, Richard; Johnston, Patrick G; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; Camilleri-Broët, Sophie; McNamara, Deborah A; Kay, Elaine W; Hennessy, Bryan T; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra; Prehn, Jochen H M

    2017-12-01

    The mitochondrial apoptosis pathway is controlled by an interaction of multiple BCL-2 family proteins, and plays a key role in tumour progression and therapy responses. We assessed the prognostic potential of an experimentally validated, mathematical model of BCL-2 protein interactions (DR_MOMP) in patients with stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Absolute protein levels of BCL-2 family proteins were determined in primary CRC tumours collected from n=128 resected and chemotherapy-treated patients with stage III CRC. We applied DR_MOMP to categorise patients as high or low risk based on model outputs, and compared model outputs with known prognostic factors (T-stage, N-stage, lymphovascular invasion). DR_MOMP signatures were validated on protein of n=156 patients with CRC from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project. High-risk stage III patients identified by DR_MOMP had an approximately fivefold increased risk of death compared with patients identified as low risk (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4 to 17.9, p=0.02). The DR_MOMP signature ranked highest among all molecular and pathological features analysed. The prognostic signature was validated in the TCGA colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) cohort (HR 4.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 15.6, p=0.04). DR_MOMP also further stratified patients identified by supervised gene expression risk scores into low-risk and high-risk categories. BCL-2-dependent signalling critically contributed to treatment responses in consensus molecular subtypes 1 and 3, linking for the first time specific molecular subtypes to apoptosis signalling. DR_MOMP delivers a system-based biomarker with significant potential as a prognostic tool for stage III CRC that significantly improves established histopathological risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

    PubMed

    Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

  6. Identifying high-risk areas for sporadic measles outbreaks: lessons from South Africa.

    PubMed

    Sartorius, Benn; Cohen, C; Chirwa, T; Ntshoe, G; Puren, A; Hofman, K

    2013-03-01

    To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011. Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012. A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken. The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

  7. High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

    PubMed

    Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

    2009-05-10

    Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

  8. Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Bengtson, Angela M.; Kopp, Dawn; Tang, Jennifer H.; Chipungu, Ennet; Moyo, Margaret; Wilkinson, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    Objective To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, HIV status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh Classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut-point were assessed. Results Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut-point of 20 had sensitivity 82% (95% CI 72%, 89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57%, 69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut-point of _20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36%, 51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86%, 94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score ≥20 and therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. Conclusions A risk score 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence, with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more

  9. Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

    PubMed

    Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

    2017-05-01

    Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Identifying high-risk roadways for infrastructure investment using naturalistic driving data.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-08-01

    The state-of-the-practice for most municipal traffic agencies seeking to identify high-risk road segments : has been to use prior crash history. While historic traffic crash data is recognized to be valuable in : improving roadway safety, it relies o...

  11. Identifying Adolescents at Highly Elevated Risk for Suicidal Behavior in the Emergency Department

    PubMed Central

    Berona, Johnny; Czyz, Ewa; Horwitz, Adam G.; Gipson, Polly Y.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective: The feasibility and concurrent validity of adolescent suicide risk screening in medical emergency departments (EDs) has been documented. The objectives of this short-term prospective study of adolescents who screened positive for suicide risk in the ED were: 1) to examine adolescents' rate of suicidal behavior during the 2 months following their ED visits and compare it with reported rates for psychiatric samples; and 2) to identify possible predictors of acute risk for suicidal behavior in this at-risk sample. Method: Participants were 81 adolescents, ages 14–19 years, seeking services for psychiatric and nonpsychiatric chief complaints, who screened positive for suicide risk because of recent suicidal ideation, a suicide attempt, and/or depression plus alcohol or substance misuse. A comprehensive assessment of suicidal behavior, using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, was conducted at baseline and 2 month follow-up. Results: Six adolescents (7.4%) reported a suicide attempt and 15 (18.5%) engaged in some type of suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, or interrupted suicide attempt; preparatory behavior) during the 2 months following their ED visit. These rates suggest that this screen identified a high-risk sample. Furthermore, adolescents who screened positive for suicidal ideation and/or attempt plus depression and alcohol/substance misuse were most likely to engage in future suicidal behavior (38.9%). Conclusions: In this study, use of a higher screen threshold (multiple suicide risk factors) showed promise for identifying highly elevated acute risk for suicidal behavior. PMID:25746114

  12. High Rates of Sex with Men among High-Risk, Heterosexually-Identified Men in Low-Income, Coastal Peru

    PubMed Central

    Lescano, Andres G.; Leontsini, Elli; Fernandez, Percy; Klausner, Jeffrey D.; Coates, Thomas J.; Cáceres, Carlos F.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we describe sex with men, including the frequency of sex and unprotected sex, among high-risk, heterosexually-identified men in urban, low-income, coastal Peru. During 2001–2002, a random community-based sample of these men was administered an epidemiologic survey collecting sexual risk behavior data. Among the 924 high-risk heterosexually-identified men, 131 (14.2%) reported at least one male partner in the past 6 months. Of these, 113 (86.3%) reported male and female partners and among those with partners of both sexes, 84.2% and 57.0% of sex acts with female and male partners, respectively, were unprotected, (RR 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31–1.68). We observed a high rate of recent bisexual behavior compared to past studies showing frequent, unprotected sex with male and female partners. This population has substantial potential to act as a bridge population between and their male and female partners and should be addressed by prevention programs. PMID:17377837

  13. Identifying high-risk small business industries for occupational safety and health interventions.

    PubMed

    Okun, A; Lentz, T J; Schulte, P; Stayner, L

    2001-03-01

    Approximately one-third (32%) of U.S. workers are employed in small business industries (those with 80% of workers in establishments with fewer than 100 employees), and approximately 53 million persons in private industry work in small business establishments. This study was performed to identify small business industries at high risk for occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. Small business industries were identified from among all three- and four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes and ranked using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by rates and numbers of occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. Both incidence rates and number of injury, illness, and fatality cases were evaluated. The 253 small business industries identified accounted for 1,568 work-related fatalities (34% of all private industry). Transportation incidents and violent acts were the leading causes of these fatalities. Detailed injury and illness data were available for 105 small business industries, that accounted for 1,476,400 work-related injuries, and 55,850 occupational illnesses. Many of the small business industries had morbidity and mortality rates exceeding the average rates for all private industry. The highest risk small business industries, based on a combined morbidity and mortality index, included logging, cut stone and stone products, truck terminals, and roofing, siding, and sheet metal work. Identification of high-risk small business industries indicates priorities for those interested in developing targeted prevention programs.

  14. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-08-01

    Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15May2012 - 31Aug2016 Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment...deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison groups of civilain single parent families (N=200) and civilian dual parent

  15. Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-01

    Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 May - 2013 - 14 May 2014. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child ...parents (N=200) whose spouse/partner is currently in a “low perceived risk” deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison

  16. Use of plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in young, healthy South Asians.

    PubMed

    Flowers, Elena; Molina, César; Mathur, Ashish; Reaven, Gerald M

    2015-01-01

    Prevalence of insulin resistance and associated dyslipidaemia [high triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations] are increased in South Asian individuals; likely contributing to their increased risk of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The plasma concentration ratio of TG/HDL-C has been proposed as a simple way to identify apparently healthy individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk. This study was carried out to compare the cardio-metabolic risk profiles of high-risk South Asian individuals identified by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio versus those with a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. Body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose, insulin, TG, and HDL-C concentrations were determined in apparently healthy men (n=498) and women (n=526). The cardio-metabolic risk profile of "high risk" individuals identified by TG/HDL-C ratios in men (≥ 3.5) and women (≥2.5) was compared to those identified by a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. More concentrations of all cardio-metabolic risk factors were significantly higher in "high risk" groups, identified by either the TG/HDL-C ratio or a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. TG, HDL-C, and insulin concentrations were not significantly different in "high risk" groups identified by either criterion, whereas plasma glucose and blood pressure were higher in those with the metabolic syndrome. Apparently healthy South Asian individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk can be identified using either the TG/HDL-C ratio or the metabolic syndrome criteria. The TG/HDL-C ratio may be used as a simple marker to identify such individuals.

  17. High-Risk Carotid Plaques Identified by CT-Angiogram can Predict Acute Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Mosleh, Wassim; Adib, Keenan; Natdanai, Punnanithinont; Carmona-Rubio, Andres; Karki, Roshan; Paily, Jacienta; Ahmed, Mohamed Abdel-Aal; Vakkalanka, Sujit; Madam, Narasa; Gudleski, Gregory D; Chung, Charles; Sharma, Umesh C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. Methods We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign (NRS). Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Results Patients with speckled (<3mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year compared to patients without [adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26 to 73.42, P= 0.001]. Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year than patients without [adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19 to 8.50, P= 0.021]. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100% and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Conclusions Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events. PMID:27866279

  18. High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

    PubMed

    Mosleh, Wassim; Adib, Keenan; Natdanai, Punnanithinont; Carmona-Rubio, Andres; Karki, Roshan; Paily, Jacienta; Ahmed, Mohamed Abdel-Aal; Vakkalanka, Sujit; Madam, Narasa; Gudleski, Gregory D; Chung, Charles; Sharma, Umesh C

    2017-04-01

    Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign. Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Patients with speckled (<3 mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year compared to patients without (adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26-73.42, P = 0.001). Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year than patients without (adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19-8.50, P = 0.021). Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100 and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events.

  19. [Predicting individual risk of high healthcare cost to identify complex chronic patients].

    PubMed

    Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez-Pérez, Inma; Ibern, Pere; Carreras, Marc; Pérez-Berruezo, Xavier; Inoriza, José M

    2014-01-01

    To develop a predictive model for the risk of high consumption of healthcare resources, and assess the ability of the model to identify complex chronic patients. A cross-sectional study was performed within a healthcare management organization by using individual data from 2 consecutive years (88,795 people). The dependent variable consisted of healthcare costs above the 95th percentile (P95), including all services provided by the organization and pharmaceutical consumption outside of the institution. The predictive variables were age, sex, morbidity-based on clinical risk groups (CRG)-and selected data from previous utilization (use of hospitalization, use of high-cost drugs in ambulatory care, pharmaceutical expenditure). A univariate descriptive analysis was performed. We constructed a logistic regression model with a 95% confidence level and analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Individuals incurring costs >P95 accumulated 44% of total healthcare costs and were concentrated in ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) categories related to multiple chronic diseases. All variables were statistically significant except for sex. The model had a sensitivity of 48.4% (CI: 46.9%-49.8%), specificity of 97.2% (CI: 97.0%-97.3%), PPV of 46.5% (CI: 45.0%-47.9%), and an AUC of 0.897 (CI: 0.892 to 0.902). High consumption of healthcare resources is associated with complex chronic morbidity. A model based on age, morbidity, and prior utilization is able to predict high-cost risk and identify a target population requiring proactive care. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  20. Identifying High-Risk Patients without Labeled Training Data: Anomaly Detection Methodologies to Predict Adverse Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Syed, Zeeshan; Saeed, Mohammed; Rubinfeld, Ilan

    2010-01-01

    For many clinical conditions, only a small number of patients experience adverse outcomes. Developing risk stratification algorithms for these conditions typically requires collecting large volumes of data to capture enough positive and negative for training. This process is slow, expensive, and may not be appropriate for new phenomena. In this paper, we explore different anomaly detection approaches to identify high-risk patients as cases that lie in sparse regions of the feature space. We study three broad categories of anomaly detection methods: classification-based, nearest neighbor-based, and clustering-based techniques. When evaluated on data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), these methods were able to successfully identify patients at an elevated risk of mortality and rare morbidities following inpatient surgical procedures. PMID:21347083

  1. High-Density Genotyping of Immune Loci in Koreans and Europeans Identifies Eight New Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk Loci

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Kwangwoo; Bang, So-Young; Lee, Hye-Soon; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Jun, Jae-Bum; Yoo, Dae Hyun; Kang, Young Mo; Kim, Seong-Kyu; Suh, Chang-Hee; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Lee, Shin-Seok; Lee, Jisoo; Chung, Won Tae; Choe, Jung-Yoon; Shin, Hyoung Doo; Lee, Jong-Young; Han, Bok-Ghee; Nath, Swapan K.; Eyre, Steve; Bowes, John; Pappas, Dimitrios A.; Kremer, Joel M.; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Ärlestig, Lisbeth; Okada, Yukinori; Diogo, Dorothée; Liao, Katherine P.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Martin, Javier; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K.; Worthington, Jane; Greenberg, Jeffrey D.; Plenge, Robert M.; Bae, Sang-Cheol

    2015-01-01

    Objective A highly polygenic etiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well-elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. Methods We analyzed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and GWAS array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data, for a total sample size of 9,299 Korean and 45,790 European case-control samples. Results We identified 8 new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1–FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10−8), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the 7 new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of SNPs that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. Conclusion This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases. PMID:24532676

  2. High-density genotyping of immune loci in Koreans and Europeans identifies eight new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kwangwoo; Bang, So-Young; Lee, Hye-Soon; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Jun, Jae-Bum; Yoo, Dae Hyun; Kang, Young Mo; Kim, Seong-Kyu; Suh, Chang-Hee; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Lee, Shin-Seok; Lee, Jisoo; Chung, Won Tae; Choe, Jung-Yoon; Shin, Hyoung Doo; Lee, Jong-Young; Han, Bok-Ghee; Nath, Swapan K; Eyre, Steve; Bowes, John; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Kremer, Joel M; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Ärlestig, Lisbeth; Okada, Yukinori; Diogo, Dorothée; Liao, Katherine P; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Martin, Javier; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K; Worthington, Jane; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Plenge, Robert M; Bae, Sang-Cheol

    2015-03-01

    A highly polygenic aetiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. We analysed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anticitrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data for a total sample size of 9299 Korean and 45,790 European case-control samples. We identified eight new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1-FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10(-8)), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the seven new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  3. Robust Intratumor Partitioning to Identify High-Risk Subregions in Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wu, Jia; Gensheimer, Michael F.; Dong, Xinzhe

    2016-08-01

    Purpose: To develop an intratumor partitioning framework for identifying high-risk subregions from {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and computed tomography (CT) imaging and to test whether tumor burden associated with the high-risk subregions is prognostic of outcomes in lung cancer. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board–approved retrospective study, we analyzed the pretreatment FDG-PET and CT scans of 44 lung cancer patients treated with radiation therapy. A novel, intratumor partitioning method was developed, based on a 2-stage clustering process: first at the patient level, each tumor was over-segmented into many superpixels by k-means clustering of integrated PET andmore » CT images; next, tumor subregions were identified by merging previously defined superpixels via population-level hierarchical clustering. The volume associated with each of the subregions was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding its prognostic capability in predicting overall survival (OS) and out-of-field progression (OFP). Results: Three spatially distinct subregions were identified within each tumor that were highly robust to uncertainty in PET/CT co-registration. Among these, the volume of the most metabolically active and metabolically heterogeneous solid component of the tumor was predictive of OS and OFP on the entire cohort, with a concordance index or CI of 0.66-0.67. When restricting the analysis to patients with stage III disease (n=32), the same subregion achieved an even higher CI of 0.75 (hazard ratio 3.93, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OS, and a CI of 0.76 (hazard ratio 4.84, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OFP. In comparison, conventional imaging markers, including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and metabolic tumor volume using threshold of 50% standardized uptake value maximum, were not predictive of OS or OFP, with CI mostly below 0.60 (log-rank P>.05). Conclusion: We propose a robust

  4. Robust Intratumor Partitioning to Identify High-Risk Subregions in Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jia; Gensheimer, Michael F; Dong, Xinzhe; Rubin, Daniel L; Napel, Sandy; Diehn, Maximilian; Loo, Billy W; Li, Ruijiang

    2016-08-01

    To develop an intratumor partitioning framework for identifying high-risk subregions from (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and computed tomography (CT) imaging and to test whether tumor burden associated with the high-risk subregions is prognostic of outcomes in lung cancer. In this institutional review board-approved retrospective study, we analyzed the pretreatment FDG-PET and CT scans of 44 lung cancer patients treated with radiation therapy. A novel, intratumor partitioning method was developed, based on a 2-stage clustering process: first at the patient level, each tumor was over-segmented into many superpixels by k-means clustering of integrated PET and CT images; next, tumor subregions were identified by merging previously defined superpixels via population-level hierarchical clustering. The volume associated with each of the subregions was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding its prognostic capability in predicting overall survival (OS) and out-of-field progression (OFP). Three spatially distinct subregions were identified within each tumor that were highly robust to uncertainty in PET/CT co-registration. Among these, the volume of the most metabolically active and metabolically heterogeneous solid component of the tumor was predictive of OS and OFP on the entire cohort, with a concordance index or CI of 0.66-0.67. When restricting the analysis to patients with stage III disease (n=32), the same subregion achieved an even higher CI of 0.75 (hazard ratio 3.93, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OS, and a CI of 0.76 (hazard ratio 4.84, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OFP. In comparison, conventional imaging markers, including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and metabolic tumor volume using threshold of 50% standardized uptake value maximum, were not predictive of OS or OFP, with CI mostly below 0.60 (log-rank P>.05). We propose a robust intratumor partitioning method to identify clinically relevant, high-risk

  5. Decision Tree Identified Risk Groups with High Suicidal Ideation in South Korea: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Kim, Jong Hyen; Hyoung, Hee Kyoung

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify risk groups with high suicidal ideation among South Korean adults. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted using secondary data from the 2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). A total of 5,963 adults aged 19 years and older who participated in the 2011 KNHANES served as participants. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its related factors, including physical, psychological, health behavioral, and sociodemographic characteristics, were examined. Descriptive statistics and a decision tree were used for data analysis. Nine groups with high suicidal ideation were identified. The coexistence of depression and high levels of stress increased the prevalence of suicidal ideation. The highest risk group was widowed or divorced adults with depression and high levels of stress, and 82.5% of these participants had suicidal ideation (the prevalence rate of this group was 5.7 times higher than the mean suicidal ideation prevalence rate in this study). Public health nurses and community mental health professionals should recognize risk groups with high suicidal ideation, and target these groups when implementing preventive interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. [FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

    PubMed

    Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

    2015-01-06

    To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. A simple risk score identifies individuals at high risk of developing Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Mushtaqur; Simmons, Rebecca K; Harding, Anne-Helen; Wareham, Nicholas J; Griffin, Simon J

    2008-06-01

    Randomized trials have demonstrated that Type 2 diabetes is preventable among high-risk individuals. To date, such individuals have been identified through population screening using the oral glucose tolerance test. To assess whether a risk score comprising only routinely collected non-biochemical parameters was effective in identifying those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40-79 recruited from UK general practices attended a health check between 1993 and 1998 (n = 25 639) and were followed for a mean of 5 years for diabetes incidence. The Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score was computed for 24 495 individuals with baseline data on age, sex, prescription of steroids and anti-hypertensive medication, family history of diabetes, body mass index and smoking status. We examined the incidence of diabetes across quintiles of the risk score and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. There were 323 new cases of diabetes, a cumulative incidence of 2.76/1000 person-years. Those in the top quintile of risk were 22 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quintile (odds ratio 22.3; 95% CI: 11.0-45.4). In all, 54% of all clinically incident cases occurred in individuals in the top quintile of risk (risk score > 0.37). The area under the ROC was 74.5%. The risk score is a simple, effective tool for the identification of those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Such methods may be more feasible than mass population screening with biochemical tests in defining target populations for prevention programmes.

  8. The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

    PubMed Central

    Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

    2014-01-01

    Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

  9. Novel target for high-risk neuroblastoma identified in pre-clinical research | Center for Cancer Research

    Cancer.gov

    Pre-clinical research by investigators at the Center for Cancer Research and their colleagues have identified a number of novel epigenetic targets for high-risk neuroblastoma and validated a promising new targeted inhibitor in pre-clinical models.  Read more...

  10. Identifying Relationships between High-Risk Sexual Behaviors and Screening Positive for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea in School-Wide Screening Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salerno, Jennifer; Darling-Fisher, Cindy; Hawkins, Nicole M.; Fraker, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article describes a school-wide sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening to identify adolescent high-risk sexual behaviors, STI history/incidence, and presence of chlamydia and gonorrhea, and examines relationships between high-risk behaviors and screening positive for chlamydia and gonorrhea in an alternative high school…

  11. The triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio identifies children who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Daniel P; Savory, Louise A; Denton, Sarah J; Davies, Ben R; Kerr, Catherine J

    2014-08-01

    It is important to develop simple, reliable methods to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from intervention. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and cardiometabolic risk, cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity in children. Anthropometric, biochemical parameters, cardiorespiratory fitness and accelerometry determined physical activity were assessed in 155 children (80 girls) from 10 to 14 years of age from Bedfordshire, UK. Participants were grouped into high and low TG/HDL ratio groups, according to published thresholds. MANCOVA and logistic regression were used in the analysis. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were significantly higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio (p < 0.05). The odds of having high waist circumference (OR = 13.99; 95% CI 2.93, 69.25), elevated systolic blood pressure (5.27; 1.39, 20.01), high non-HDL cholesterol (19.47; 4.42, 85.81) and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (15.32; 3.10, 75.79) were higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio. The TG/HDL ratio values were significantly lower in those with high cardiorespiratory fitness (p = 0.01), but there was no association with physical activity. These findings support the use of the TG/HDL ratio to identify children with cardiometabolic risk factors who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Critical assessment of the use of growth monitoring for identifying high risk children in primary health care programmes.

    PubMed Central

    Briend, A.; Bari, A.

    1989-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To see whether change in weight was a more useful index than weight for age in assessing the risk of dying among malnourished children. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study. SETTING--Rural community in Bangladesh being served by international health organisation. PARTICIPANTS--1011 Children aged under 5, of whom 66 died. END POINT--Efficient screening method for identifying malnourished children at risk of dying. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Weight was measured every month. Weight for age and monthly change in weight averaged over one and three months were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity curves were used to compare the values of these two variables in identifying children with a high risk of dying. Weight for age was more sensitive than change in weight at all levels of specificity. Changes in weight, however, were independently related to the risk of dying even when intercurrent diseases and low weight for age were taken into account. CONCLUSIONS--For identifying children with a high risk of dying weight for age is a more efficient screening tool than a recent change in weight. Growth monitoring as currently recommended for primary health care programmes in developing countries does not seem to be the most effective approach in identifying children in need of urgent help. PMID:2503147

  13. Identifying, screening and engaging high-risk clients in private non-profit child abuse prevention programs.

    PubMed

    Barth, R P; Ash, J R; Hacking, S

    1986-01-01

    Child abuse prevention programs rely on varied strategies to identify, screen, obtain referrals of, and engage high risk parents. Available literature on community-based child abuse prevention projects is not conclusive about project outcomes nor sufficiently descriptive about implementation. From the literature, experience and interviews with staff from more than 20 programs, barriers to implementation are identifiable. Barriers arise during identifying and screening at-risk families, referral, continued collaboration with referrers, and engaging clients in services. The paper describes a diverse set of strategies for surmounting these barriers. Staff characteristics and concrete services partially predict the success of program implementation. So does the program's relationship to other agencies. Child abuse prevention programs assume independent, interdependent, and dependent relationships with other agencies and referrers. Interdependent programs appear to have the best chance of obtaining referrals and maintaining clients who match their program's intent.

  14. Identifying women with dense breasts at high risk for interval cancer: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Kerlikowske, Karla; Zhu, Weiwei; Tosteson, Anna N A; Sprague, Brian L; Tice, Jeffrey A; Lehman, Constance D; Miglioretti, Diana L

    2015-05-19

    Twenty-one states have laws requiring that women be notified if they have dense breasts and that they be advised to discuss supplemental imaging with their provider. To better direct discussions of supplemental imaging by determining which combinations of breast cancer risk and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density categories are associated with high interval cancer rates. Prospective cohort. Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) breast imaging facilities. 365,426 women aged 40 to 74 years who had 831,455 digital screening mammography examinations. BI-RADS breast density, BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, and interval cancer rate (invasive cancer ≤12 months after a normal mammography result) per 1000 mammography examinations. High interval cancer rate was defined as more than 1 case per 1000 examinations. High interval cancer rates were observed for women with 5-year risk of 1.67% or greater and extremely dense breasts or 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously dense breasts (24% of all women with dense breasts). The interval rate of advanced-stage disease was highest (>0.4 case per 1000 examinations) among women with 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts (21% of all women with dense breasts). Five-year risk was low to average (0% to 1.66%) for 51.0% of women with heterogeneously dense breasts and 52.5% with extremely dense breasts, with interval cancer rates of 0.58 to 0.63 and 0.72 to 0.89 case per 1000 examinations, respectively. The benefit of supplemental imaging was not assessed. Breast density should not be the sole criterion for deciding whether supplemental imaging is justified because not all women with dense breasts have high interval cancer rates. BCSC 5-year risk combined with BI-RADS breast density can identify women at high risk for interval cancer to inform patient-provider discussions about alternative screening strategies. National Cancer Institute.

  15. Impact of Patient Reminders on Papanicolaou Test Completion for High-Risk Patients Identified by a Clinical Decision Support System.

    PubMed

    MacLaughlin, Kathy L; Kessler, Maya E; Komandur Elayavilli, Ravikumar; Hickey, Branden C; Scheitel, Marianne R; Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Liu, Hongfang; Kremers, Walter K; Chaudhry, Rajeev

    2018-05-01

    A clinical decision support system (CDSS) for cervical cancer screening identifies patients due for routine cervical cancer screening. Yet, high-risk patients who require more frequent screening or earlier follow-up to address past abnormal results are not identified. We aimed to assess the effect of a complex CDSS, incorporating national guidelines for high-risk patient screening and abnormal result management, its implementation to identify patients overdue for testing, and the outcome of sending a targeted recommendation for follow-up. At three primary care clinics affiliated with an academic medical center, a reminder recommending an appointment for Papanicolaou (Pap) testing or Pap and human papillomavirus cotesting was sent to high-risk women aged 18 through 65 years (intervention group) identified by CDSS as overdue for testing. Historical control patients, who did not receive a reminder, were identified by CDSS 1 year before the date when reminders were sent to the intervention group. Test completion rates were compared between the intervention and control groups through a generalized estimating equation extension. Across the three sites, the average completion rate of recommended follow-up testing was significantly higher in the intervention group at 23.7% (61/257) than the completion rate at 3.3% (17/516) in the control group (p < 0.001). A CDSS with enhanced capabilities to identify high-risk women due for cervical cancer testing beyond routine screening intervals, with subsequent patient notification, has the potential to decrease cervical precancer and cancer by improving adherence to guideline-compliant follow-up and needed treatment.

  16. Online self-test identifies women at high familial breast cancer risk in population-based breast cancer screening without inducing anxiety or distress.

    PubMed

    van Erkelens, A; Sie, A S; Manders, P; Visser, A; Duijm, L E; Mann, R M; Ten Voorde, M; Kroeze, H; Prins, J B; Hoogerbrugge, N

    2017-06-01

    Identifying high familial breast cancer (FBC) risk improves detection of yet unknown BRCA1/2-mutation carriers, for whom BC risk is both highly likely and potentially preventable. We assessed whether a new online self-test could identify women at high FBC risk in population-based BC screening without inducing anxiety or distress. After their visit for screening mammography, women were invited by email to take an online self-test for identifying highly increased FBC risk-based on Dutch guidelines. Exclusion criteria were previously diagnosed as increased FBC risk or a personal history of BC. Anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory Dutch Version), distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale) and BC risk perception were assessed using questionnaires, which were completed immediately before and after taking the online self-test and 2 weeks later. Of the 562 women invited by email, 406 (72%) completed the online self-test while 304 also completed questionnaires (response rate 54%). After exclusion criteria, 287 (51%) were included for data analysis. Median age was 56 years (range 50-74). A high or moderate FBC risk was identified in 12 (4%) and three (1%) women, respectively. After completion of the online self-test, anxiety and BC risk perception were decreased while distress scores remained unchanged. Levels were below clinical relevance. Most women (85%) would recommend the self-test; few (3%) would not. The online self-test identified previously unknown women at high FBC risk (4%), who may carry a BRCA1/2-mutation, without inducing anxiety or distress. We therefore recommend offering this self-test to women who attend population-based screening mammography for the first time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. HPV-DNA testing for patients with ASC-US helps identify the women who have a high risk for precancerous cervical lesions.

    PubMed

    Moarcăs, M; Georgescu, I C; Moarcăs, R; Badea, M; Cîrstoiu, M

    2014-01-01

    The cytological interpretation of ASC-US represents a category of morphologic uncertainty. For patients with this result, other tests are necessary in order to determine the risk for cervical lesions. 198 patients with ASC-US cytology have been analyzed between 2008 and 2013. All the patients included in the study have subsequently had a high oncogenic HPV testing and colposcopy risk. 103 (52%) patients tested positive for high risk HPV and 21 (10%) had associated colposcopy changes and precancerous and cancerous lesions identified through biopsy. 95 (48%) patients tested negative for HPV and none of these women had lesions at colposcopy. High oncogenic risk HPV testing was proven useful in identifying the patients with ASC-US cytology who are at high risk for cervical lesions (100% sensibility). In this study, the HPV testing had a negative predictive value of 100%, which uselessly renders a further colposcopy evaluation. HPV testing for women with ASC-US is not specific in identifying women with cervical lesions (Specificity 53%) and this results from a high prevalence of limited HPV infections in an age group which is less than 30 years old. High risk HPV testing for women with ASC-US cervical cytology is useful in determining the risk for precancerous and cancerous cervical lesions. A positive result is associated with a high risk for cervical lesions (20%) and for these patients colposcopy is necessary. For women with a negative result, the risk for cervical lesions is practically null so colposcopy is not required.

  18. Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome in Nigeria: A multicentre observational study.

    PubMed

    Desalu, Olufemi O; Onyedum, Cajetan C; Adeoti, Adekunle O; Fadare, Joseph O; Sanya, Emmanuel O; Fawale, Michael B; Bello, Hamzat A

    2017-06-01

    Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with significant health consequences. A significant proportion of hospitalized patients at risk for obstructive sleep apnoea were never identified and referred for polysomnography for diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in tertiary hospitals in Nigeria. This was a multicentre observational study of adult patients hospitalized in three selected hospitals from 15th January to 17th March 2015. Berlin questionnaire and Epworth sleepiness scale were used to assess for obstructive sleep apnoea risk and excessive daytime sleepiness respectively. Additional questions on traditional risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea were also obtained. Nine hundred and twenty-six patients were recruited into the study. Respondents' mean age was 44.3 years ± 15.2years, 486 (52.5%) were females and 556 (60.0%) had one or more medical co-morbidity and none of the patients had a previous diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea. Factors that were independently associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea include systemic hypertension(aOR-10.33;95%: CI 6.42-16.61), obesity(aOR-7.87;95% CI: 4.33-14.29); excessive daytime sleepiness (aOR-3.77;95% CI :2.28-6.22), tobacco smoking (aOR-2.99;95% CI: 1.76-5.07), snoring in a first-degree relative (aOR-1.83;95% CI: 1.19-2.81); and the use of sedative (aOR-1.82;95% CI: 1.06-3.15). This study shows that patients with systemic hypertension, obesity, excessive daytime sleepiness, history of smoking, snoring in a first-degree relative and use of sedatives are at high risk of obstructive sleep apnoea. None of the patients at high risk had a previous diagnosis of sleep apnoea by a physician, highlighting the diagnostic challenges of this condition. The results of this study will assist health care professionals in early identification of individuals at risk of

  19. A clinical algorithm identifies high risk pediatric oncology and bone marrow transplant patients likely to benefit from treatment of adenoviral infection.

    PubMed

    Williams, Kirsten Marie; Agwu, Allison L; Dabb, Alix A; Higman, Meghan A; Loeb, David M; Valsamakis, Alexandra; Chen, Allen R

    2009-11-01

    Adenoviral infections cause morbidity and mortality in blood and marrow transplantation and pediatric oncology patients. Cidofovir is active against adenovirus, but must be used judiciously because of its nephrotoxicity and unclear indications. Therefore, before introducing cidofovir use during an adenoviral outbreak, we developed a clinical algorithm to distinguish low risk patients from those who merited cidofovir therapy because of significant adenoviral disease and high risk for death. This study was conducted to determine whether the algorithm accurately predicted severe adenovirus disease and whether selective cidofovir treatment was beneficial. A retrospective analysis of a pediatric oncology/blood and marrow transplantation cohort prealgorithm and postalgorithm implementation was performed. Twenty patients with adenovirus infection were identified (14 high risk and 6 low risk). All low-risk patients cleared their infections without treatment. Before algorithm implementation, all untreated high-risk patients died, 4 out of 5 (80%), from adenoviral infection. In contrast, cidofovir reduced adenovirus-related mortality in the high-risk group postalgorithm implementation (9 patients treated, 1 patient died; RR 0.14, P<0.05) and all treated high-risk patients cleared their virus. The clinical algorithm accurately identified patients at high risk for severe fatal adenoviral disease who would benefit from selective use of cidofovir.

  20. Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2015-10-01

    Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  1. Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Tice, Jeffrey A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M.; Gard, Charlotte C.; Kerlikowske, Karla

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. Methods We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. Results We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P < .001). Conclusion The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. PMID:26282663

  2. Identifying Children at High Risk for a Child Maltreatment Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubowitz, Howard; Kim, Jeongeun; Black, Maureen M.; Weisbart, Cindy; Semiatin, Joshua; Magder, Laurence S.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To help professionals identify factors that place families at risk for future child maltreatment, to facilitate necessary services and to potentially help prevent abuse and neglect. Method: The data are from a prospective, longitudinal study of 332 low-income families recruited from urban pediatric primary care clinics, followed for…

  3. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  4. Identifying and assessing highly hazardous drugs within quality risk management programs.

    PubMed

    Sussman, Robert G; Schatz, Anthony R; Kimmel, Tracy A; Ader, Allan; Naumann, Bruce D; Weideman, Patricia A

    2016-08-01

    Historically, pharmaceutical industry regulatory guidelines have assigned certain active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to various categories of concern, such as "cytotoxic", "hormones", and "steroids". These categories have been used to identify APIs requiring segregation or dedication in order to prevent cross-contamination and protect the quality and safety of drug products. Since these terms were never defined by regulatory authorities, and many novel pharmacological mechanisms challenge these categories, there is a recognized need to modify the historical use of these terms. The application of a risk-based approach using a health-based limit, such as an acceptable daily exposure (ADE), is more appropriate for the development of a Quality Risk Management Program (QRMP) than the use of categories of concern. The toxicological and pharmacological characteristics of these categories are discussed to help identify and prioritize compounds requiring special attention. Controlling airborne concentrations and the contamination of product contact surfaces in accordance with values derived from quantitative risk assessments can prevent adverse effects in workers and patients, regardless of specific categorical designations to which these APIs have been assigned. The authors acknowledge the movement away from placing compounds into categories and, while not yet universal, the importance of basing QRMPs on compound-specific ADEs and risk assessments. Based on the results of a risk assessment, segregation and dedication may also be required for some compounds to prevent cross contamination during manufacture of APIs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Whole Genome Sequencing of High-Risk Families to Identify New Mutational Mechanisms of Breast Cancer Predisposition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    INTRODUCTION: Despite tremendous advances in mutation detection with gene panels and exome sequencing the majority of high risk breast...2a. Align reads to the reference sequence (months 4-10) 2b. Identify SNPs, indels, CNVs and rearrangements by bioinformatic tools (months 4-10) 2c

  6. Clinicians' preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries.

    PubMed

    Sarmadi, Roxana; Gahnberg, Lars; Gabre, Pia

    2011-05-01

    Clinicians handle diagnosis and treatment planning of caries in different ways, and the underlying factors leading to management of risk and choice of treatment strategies are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dentists' and dental hygienists' choices of preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries. A sample of dental records from 432 of a total of 3372 children in a Swedish county identified as at high risk of developing caries, aged 3-19 years, was randomly selected for analysis in the study. Information of importance for the therapists' choice of caries management strategies were obtained from the dental records. The results showed that therapists considered tooth brushing instruction and fluoride treatment at the clinic to be of primary importance as treatment given in 60% of the cases, respectively. Fluoride treatment at home and diet counselling were both chosen in half of the cases. Fissure sealant therapy was used in 21% of the cases, and 15% of the patients did not receive any preventive treatment at all. The results also showed that girls more often received fluoride treatment, tooth brushing instruction and oral hygiene information than boys. In the majority of the children and adolescents, several preventive measures were given. The more background factors included in the risk assessment, the more preventive measures were given. The differences between the treatments given to girls and the boys need to be further investigated. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Ability of the plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in an east Asian population.

    PubMed

    Sung, Ki-Chul; Reaven, Gerald; Kim, Sun

    2014-07-01

    The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) has identified increased cardio-metabolic risk and outcome in European populations. The goal of this study was to see if this ratio would also have clinical utility in identifying cardio-metabolic risk in an East Asian population. Measurements of various cardio-metabolic risk factors, including coronary calcium scores, were available on 12,166 apparently healthy Korean adults. Approximately 25% of men and women with the highest TG/HDL-C ratios were classified as being at high cardio-metabolic risk, and their risk factor profiles compared to the remainder of the population, as well as to individuals with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). High cardio-metabolic risk (upper 25%) was defined as a TG/HDL-C ratio ≥3.5 (men) or ≥2.0 (women), and all cardio-metabolic risk factors measured, including coronary calcium scores, were significantly more adverse when compared to individuals beneath these cut-points. Although cardio-metabolic risk profiles appeared reasonably comparable in subjects identified by either a high TG/HDL-C or a diagnosis of MetS, use of the TG/HDL-C increased the numbers at high risk. Evidence that determination of the plasma TG/HDL-C concentration ratio provides a simple way to identify individual at increased cardio-metabolic risk has been extended to an East Asian population. The ability of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio to accomplish this goal is comparable to that achieved using the more complicated MetS criteria. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A Radio-genomics Approach for Identifying High Risk Estrogen Receptor-positive Breast Cancers on DCE-MRI: Preliminary Results in Predicting OncotypeDX Risk Scores

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Tao; Bloch, B. Nicolas; Plecha, Donna; Thompson, CheryI L.; Gilmore, Hannah; Jaffe, Carl; Harris, Lyndsay; Madabhushi, Anant

    2016-01-01

    To identify computer extracted imaging features for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers on dynamic contrast en-hanced (DCE)-MRI that are correlated with the low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. We collected 96 ER-positivebreast lesions with low (<18, N = 55) and high (>30, N = 41) OncotypeDX recurrence scores. Each lesion was quantitatively charac-terize via 6 shape features, 3 pharmacokinetics, 4 enhancement kinetics, 4 intensity kinetics, 148 textural kinetics, 5 dynamic histogram of oriented gradient (DHoG), and 6 dynamic local binary pattern (DLBP) features. The extracted features were evaluated by a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier in terms of their ability to distinguish low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. Classification performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (Az). The DHoG and DLBP achieved Az values of 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. The 6 top features identified via feature selection were subsequently combined with the LDA classifier to yield an Az of 0.87. The correlation analysis showed that DHoG (ρ = 0.85, P < 0.001) and DLBP (ρ = 0.83, P < 0.01) were significantly associated with the low and high risk classifications from the OncotypeDX assay. Our results indicated that computer extracted texture features of DCE-MRI were highly correlated with the high and low OncotypeDX risk categories for ER-positive cancers. PMID:26887643

  9. Pilot study on use of home telephoning to identify and recruit high-risk individuals for lung cancer screening.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giulia; Colombo, Paolo; Novellis, Pierluigi; Crepaldi, Alessandro; Lutman, Romano Fabio; Dieci, Elisa; Profili, Manuel; Siracusano, Licia; Alloisio, Marco

    2017-03-01

    Widespread lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography is urgently needed in Europe to identify lung cancers early and reduce lung cancer deaths. The most effective method of identifying high-risk individuals and recruiting them for screening has not been determined. In the present pilot study we investigated direct telephoning to families as a way of identifying high risk individuals and recruiting them to a screening/smoking cessation program, that avoided the selection bias of voluntary screening. Families in the province of Milan, Italy, were contacted by telephone at their homes and asked about family members over 50 years who were heavy smokers (30 or more pack-years). Persons meeting these criteria were contacted and asked to participate in the program. Those who agreed were given an appointment to undergo screening and receive smoking cessation counseling. Among the 1000 contacted families, involving 2300 persons, 44 (1.9%) were eligible for LDCT screening, and 12 (27%) of these participated in the program. The cost of this recruitment strategy pilot study was around 150 euro per screened subject. We obtained useful information on the proportion of the general population eligible for lung cancer screening and the proportion of those who responded. However the cost of home telephone calling is probably too high to be practicable as a method of recruiting high risk persons for screening. Alternative recruitment methods, possibly involving family physicians practitioners, need to be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation.

    PubMed

    Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L

    2016-09-01

    Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Identifying areas of high risk of human exposure to coccidioidomycosis in Texas using serology data from dogs.

    PubMed

    Gautam, R; Srinath, I; Clavijo, A; Szonyi, B; Bani-Yaghoub, M; Park, S; Ivanek, R

    2013-03-01

    Coccidioidomycosis or Valley Fever (VF) is an emerging soil-borne fungal zoonosis affecting humans and animals. Most non-human cases of VF are found in dogs, which we hypothesize may serve as sentinels for estimating the human exposure risk. The objective of this study is to use the spatial and temporal distribution and clusters of dogs seropositive for VF to define the geographic area in Texas where VF is endemic, and thus presents a higher risk of exposure to humans. The included specimens were seropositive dogs tested at a major diagnostic laboratory between 1999 and 2009. Data were aggregated by zip code and smoothed by empirical Bayesian estimation to develop an isopleth map of VF seropositive rates using kriging. Clusters of seropositive dogs were identified using the spatial scan test. Both the isopleth map and the scan test identified an area with a high rate of VF-seropositive dogs in the western and southwestern parts of Texas (relative risk = 31). This location overlapped an area that was previously identified as a potential endemic region based on human surveys. Together, these data suggest that dogs may serve as sentinels for estimating the risk of human exposure to VF. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  12. Incorporating Known Genetic Variants Does Not Improve the Accuracy of PSA Testing to Identify High Risk Prostate Cancer on Biopsy

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, Rebecca; Martin, Richard M.; Evans, David M.; Tilling, Kate; Davey Smith, George; Kemp, John P.; Lane, J. Athene; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Neal, David E.; Donovan, Jenny L.; Metcalfe, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing is a widely accepted screening method for prostate cancer, but with low specificity at thresholds giving good sensitivity. Previous research identified four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) principally associated with circulating PSA levels rather than with prostate cancer risk (TERT rs2736098, FGFR2 rs10788160, TBX3 rs11067228, KLK3 rs17632542). Removing the genetic contribution to PSA levels may improve the ability of the remaining biologically-determined variation in PSA to discriminate between high and low risk of progression within men with identified prostate cancer. We investigate whether incorporating information on the PSA-SNPs improves the discrimination achieved by a single PSA threshold in men with raised PSA levels. Materials and Methods Men with PSA between 3-10ng/mL and histologically-confirmed prostate cancer were categorised as high or low risk of progression (Low risk: Gleason score≤6 and stage T1-T2a; High risk: Gleason score 7–10 or stage T2C). We used the combined genetic effect of the four PSA-SNPs to calculate a genetically corrected PSA risk score. We calculated the Area under the Curve (AUC) to determine how well genetically corrected PSA risk scores distinguished men at high risk of progression from low risk men. Results The analysis includes 868 men with prostate cancer (Low risk: 684 (78.8%); High risk: 184 (21.2%)). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves indicate that including the 4 PSA-SNPs does not improve the performance of measured PSA as a screening tool for high/low risk prostate cancer (measured PSA level AU C = 59.5% (95% CI: 54.7,64.2) vs additionally including information from the 4 PSA-SNPs AUC = 59.8% (95% CI: 55.2,64.5) (p-value = 0.40)). Conclusion We demonstrate that genetically correcting PSA for the combined genetic effect of four PSA-SNPs, did not improve discrimination between high and low risk prostate cancer in men with raised PSA levels (3-10ng

  13. A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

    PubMed

    DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

    2000-01-01

    A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

  14. Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

  15. Data mining model using simple and readily available factors could identify patients at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C.

    PubMed

    Kurosaki, Masayuki; Hiramatsu, Naoki; Sakamoto, Minoru; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki; Iwasaki, Manabu; Tamori, Akihiro; Matsuura, Kentaro; Kakinuma, Sei; Sugauchi, Fuminaka; Sakamoto, Naoya; Nakagawa, Mina; Izumi, Namiki

    2012-03-01

    Assessment of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is essential for formulating personalized surveillance or antiviral treatment plan for chronic hepatitis C. We aimed to build a simple model for the identification of patients at high risk of developing HCC. Chronic hepatitis C patients followed for at least 5 years (n=1003) were analyzed by data mining to build a predictive model for HCC development. The model was externally validated using a cohort of 1072 patients (472 with sustained virological response (SVR) and 600 with nonSVR to PEG-interferon plus ribavirin therapy). On the basis of factors such as age, platelet, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase, the HCC risk prediction model identified subgroups with high-, intermediate-, and low-risk of HCC with a 5-year HCC development rate of 20.9%, 6.3-7.3%, and 0-1.5%, respectively. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed through external validation (r(2)=0.981). The 10-year HCC development rate was also significantly higher in the high-and intermediate-risk group than in the low-risk group (24.5% vs. 4.8%; p<0.0001). In the high-and intermediate-risk group, the incidence of HCC development was significantly reduced in patients with SVR compared to those with nonSVR (5-year rate, 9.5% vs. 4.5%; p=0.040). The HCC risk prediction model uses simple and readily available factors and identifies patients at a high risk of HCC development. The model allows physicians to identify patients requiring HCC surveillance and those who benefit from IFN therapy to prevent HCC. Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study.

    PubMed

    Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

    2014-01-01

    To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Prospective cohort study. Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered.

  17. Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. Participants 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Methods Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. Results The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. Conclusions To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered. PMID:25232563

  18. Brief assessment of food insecurity accurately identifies high-risk US adults.

    PubMed

    Gundersen, Craig; Engelhard, Emily E; Crumbaugh, Amy S; Seligman, Hilary K

    2017-06-01

    To facilitate the introduction of food insecurity screening into clinical settings, we examined the test performance of two-item screening questions for food insecurity against the US Department of Agriculture's Core Food Security Module. We examined sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of various two-item combinations of questions assessing food insecurity in the general population and high-risk population subgroups. 2013 Current Population Survey December Supplement, a population-based US survey. All survey participants from the general population and high-risk subgroups. The test characteristics of multiple two-item combinations of questions assessing food insecurity had adequate sensitivity (>97 %) and specificity (>70 %) for widespread adoption as clinical screening measures. We recommend two specific items for clinical screening programmes based on their widespread current use and high sensitivity for detecting food insecurity. These items query how often the household 'worried whether food would run out before we got money to buy more' and how often 'the food that we bought just didn't last and we didn't have money to get more'. The recommended items have sensitivity across high-risk population subgroups of ≥97 % and a specificity of ≥74 % for food insecurity.

  19. Inventory of Personal Skills for Achievement: Validity and Reliability Study of an Instrument for Identifying Educationally At-Risk Junior [High] School Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leaseburg, Melinda G.; And Others

    This paper describes the development and test of an early-warning instrument for identifying at-risk students aged 10-15. A statistically sound test to identify at-risk high school students existed in the Personal Skills Map--Adolescent version (PSMA-A). This study used a modified version of PSM-A , which was renamed Personal Skills for…

  20. A Comparative Study of Two Groups of Sex Offenders Identified as High and Low Risk on the Static-99

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coxe, Ray; Holmes, William

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify possible differences between high- and low-risk sex offenders. The subjects included 285 sex offenders on probation. They were evaluated with the Static-99, Abel Assessment, Raven's, and MMPI-2. A criminal history review identified the number of prior offenses and the age/sex category in the index offense.…

  1. Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplant: identifying the high-risk patient

    PubMed Central

    Nissen, Nicholas N; Menon, Vijay; Bresee, Catherine; Tran, Tram T; Annamalai, Alagappan; Poordad, Fred; Fair, Jeffrey H; Klein, Andrew S; Boland, Brendan; Colquhoun, Steven D

    2011-01-01

    Background Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) is rarely curable. However, in view of the advent of new treatments, it is critical that patients at high risk for recurrence are identified. Methods Patients undergoing LT for HCC at a single centre between 2002 and 2010 were reviewed and data on clinical parameters and explant pathology were analysed to determine factors associated with HCC recurrence. All necrotic and viable tumour nodules were included in explant staging. All patients underwent LT according to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) tumour exception policies. Results Liver transplantation was performed in 122 patients with HCC during this period. Rates of recurrence-free survival in the entire cohort at 1 year and 3 years were 95% and 89%, respectively. Thirteen patients developed HCC recurrence at a median of 14 months post-LT. In univariate analysis the factors associated with HCC recurrence were bilobar tumours, vascular invasion, and stage exceeding either Milan or University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Criteria. Multivariate analysis showed pathology outside UCSF Criteria was the major predictor of recurrence; when pathology outside UCSF Criteria was found in combination with vascular invasion, the predicted 3-year recurrence-free survival was only 26%. Conclusions Explant pathology can be used to predict the risk for recurrent HCC after LT, which may allow for improved adjuvant and management strategies. PMID:21843263

  2. NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene

    MedlinePlus

    ... News From NIH NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene Past Issues / Summer 2006 Table of Contents For ... and Alcoholism (NIAAA) have identified a previously unknown gene variant that doubles an individual's risk for obsessive- ...

  3. Screening for Albuminuria Identifies Individuals at Increased Renal Risk

    PubMed Central

    van der Velde, Marije; Halbesma, Nynke; de Charro, Frank T.; Bakker, Stephan J.L.; de Zeeuw, Dick; de Jong, Paul E.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.

    2009-01-01

    It is unknown whether screening for albuminuria in the general population identifies individuals at increased risk for renal replacement therapy (RRT) or accelerated loss of renal function. Here, in a general population-based cohort of 40,854 individuals aged 28 to 75 yr, we collected a first morning void for measurement of urinary albumin. In a subset of 6879 individuals, we measured 24-h urinary albumin excretion and estimated GFR at baseline and during 6 yr of follow-up. Linkage with the national RRT registry identified 45 individuals who started RRT during 9 yr of follow-up. The quantity of albuminuria was associated with increased renal risk: the higher the level of albuminuria, the higher the risk of need for renal replacement therapy and the more rapid renal function decline. A urinary albumin concentration of ≥20 mg/L identified individuals who started RRT during follow-up with 58% sensitivity and 92% specificity. Of the identified individuals, 39% were previously unknown to have impaired renal function, and 50% were not being medically treated. Restricting screening to high-risk groups (e.g., known hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease [CVD], older age) reduced the sensitivity of the test only marginally but failed to identify 45% of individuals with micro- and macroalbuminuria. In conclusion, individuals with elevated levels of urinary albumin are at increased risk for RRT and accelerated loss of renal function. Screening for albuminuria identifies patients at increased risk for progressive renal disease, 40 to 50% of whom were previously undiagnosed or untreated. PMID:19211710

  4. Identifying Children At Risk for Being Bullies in the US

    PubMed Central

    Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

    2012-01-01

    Objective To identify risk factors associated with the highest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among US children. Methods Using the 2001–2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally-representative survey of US children in 6th–10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (≥ once or twice), moderate (≥ two-three times/month), and frequent (≥ weekly) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. Results The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5–6 days weekly were at highest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, drink > once daily, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at highest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Conclusions Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at highest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the highest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at highest risks for bullying and in targeting interventions. PMID:22989731

  5. Temperature diagnostic to identify high risk areas and optimize Legionella pneumophila surveillance in hot water distribution systems.

    PubMed

    Bédard, Emilie; Fey, Stéphanie; Charron, Dominique; Lalancette, Cindy; Cantin, Philippe; Dolcé, Patrick; Laferrière, Céline; Déziel, Eric; Prévost, Michèle

    2015-03-15

    Legionella pneumophila is frequently detected in hot water distribution systems and thermal control is a common measure implemented by health care facilities. A risk assessment based on water temperature profiling and temperature distribution within the network is proposed, to guide effective monitoring strategies and allow the identification of high risk areas. Temperature and heat loss at control points (water heater, recirculation, representative points-of-use) were monitored in various sections of five health care facilities hot water distribution systems and results used to develop a temperature-based risk assessment tool. Detailed investigations show that defective return valves in faucets can cause widespread temperature losses because of hot and cold water mixing. Systems in which water temperature coming out of the water heaters was kept consistently above 60 °C and maintained above 55 °C across the network were negative for Legionella by culture or qPCR. For systems not meeting these temperature criteria, risk areas for L. pneumophila were identified using temperature profiling and system's characterization; higher risk was confirmed by more frequent microbiological detection by culture and qPCR. Results confirmed that maintaining sufficiently high temperatures within hot water distribution systems suppressed L. pneumophila culturability. However, the risk remains as shown by the persistence of L. pneumophila by qPCR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The priority group index: a proposed new method incorporating high risk and population burden to identify target populations for public health interventions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Bo; Cohen, Joanna E; OʼConnor, Shawn

    2014-01-01

    Selection of priority groups is important for health interventions. However, no quantitative method has been developed. To develop a quantitative method to support the process of selecting priority groups for public health interventions based on both high risk and population health burden. Secondary data analysis of the 2010 Canadian Community Health Survey. Canadian population. Survey respondents. We identified priority groups for 3 diseases: heart disease, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Three measures--prevalence, population counts, and adjusted odds ratios (OR)--were calculated for subpopulations (sociodemographic characteristics and other risk factors). A Priority Group Index (PGI) was calculated by summing the rank scores of these 3 measures. Of the 30 priority groups identified by the PGI (10 for each of the 3 disease outcomes), 7 were identified on the basis of high prevalence only, 5 based on population count only, 3 based on high OR only, and the remainder based on combinations of these. The identified priority groups were all in line with the literature as risk factors for the 3 diseases, such as elderly people for heart disease and stroke and those with low income for chronic lower respiratory diseases. The PGI was thus able to balance both high risk and population burden approaches in selecting priority groups, and thus it would address health inequities as well as disease burden in the overall population. The PGI is a quantitative method to select priority groups for public health interventions; it has the potential to enhance the effective use of limited public resources.

  7. Kinome expression profiling of human neuroblastoma tumors identifies potential drug targets for ultra high-risk patients.

    PubMed

    Russo, Roberta; Cimmino, Flora; Pezone, Lucia; Manna, Francesco; Avitabile, Marianna; Langella, Concetta; Koster, Jan; Casale, Fiorina; Raia, Maddalena; Viola, Giampietro; Fischer, Matthias; Iolascon, Achille; Capasso, Mario

    2017-10-01

    Neuroblastoma (NBL) accounts for >7% of malignancies in patients younger than 15 years. Low- and intermediate-risk patients exhibit excellent or good prognosis after treatment, whereas for high-risk (HR) patients, the estimated 5-year survival rates is still <40%. The ability to stratify HR patients that will not respond to standard treatment strategies is critical for informed treatment decisions. In this study, we have generated a specific kinome gene signature, named Kinome-27, which is able to identify a subset of HR-NBL tumors, named ultra-HR NBL, with highly aggressive clinical behavior that not adequately respond to standard treatments. We have demonstrated that NBL cell lines expressing the same kinome signature of ultra-HR tumors (ultra-HR-like cell lines) may be selectively targeted by the use of two drugs [suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA) and Radicicol], and that the synergic combination of these drugs is able to block the ultra-HR-like cells in G2/M phase of cell cycle. The use of our signature in clinical practice will allow identifying patients with negative outcome, which would benefit from new and more personalized treatments. Preclinical in vivo studies are needed to consolidate the SAHA and Radicicol treatment in ultra-HR NBL patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

    PubMed

    Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

    2014-04-01

    risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Sex Differences in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder Identified within a High-Risk Infant Cohort

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Bryson, Susan E.; Szatmari, Peter; Brian, Jessica; Smith, Isabel M.; Roberts, Wendy; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Roncadin, Caroline

    2012-01-01

    Sex differences were examined in 3-year-olds with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) ascertained from a high-risk cohort, and high- and low-risk comparison groups. Participants included 319 high-risk siblings and 129 low-risk controls. Eighty-five siblings were diagnosed with ASD, including 57 of 176 boys (32.4%) and 28 of 143 girls (19.6%), implying…

  10. Universal screening for alcohol misuse in acute medical admissions is feasible and identifies patients at high risk of liver disease.

    PubMed

    Westwood, Greta; Meredith, Paul; Atkins, Susan; Greengross, Peter; Schmidt, Paul E; Aspinall, Richard J

    2017-09-01

    Many people who die from alcohol related liver disease (ARLD) have a history of recurrent admissions to hospital, representing potential missed opportunities for intervention. Universal screening for alcohol misuse has been advocated but it is not known if this is achievable or effective at detecting individuals at high risk of ARLD. We systematically screened all admissions to the Acute Medical Unit (AMU) of a large acute hospital using an electronic data capture system in real time. Patients at an increasing risk of alcohol harm were referred for either brief intervention (BI) or further assessment by an Alcohol Specialist Nursing Service (ASNS). Additional data were recorded on admission diagnoses, alcohol unit consumption, previous attendances, previous admissions, length of stay and mortality. Between July 2011 and March 2014, there were 53,165 admissions and 48,211 (90.68%) completed screening. Of these, 1,122 (2.3%) were classified as "increasing", and 1,921 (4.0%) as "high" risk of alcohol harm. High risk patients had more hospital admissions in the three previous years (average 4.74) than the low (3.00) and increasing (2.92) risk groups (p<0.001). The high risk patients also had more frequent emergency department (ED) attendances (7.68) than the lower (2.64) and increasing (3.81) groups (p<0.001 for both). A total of 1,396 (72.6%) of the high risk group were seen by the ASNS and 1,135 (81.2%) had an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score over 20 with 527 (37.8%) recording the maximum value of 40. Compared to the other groups, high risk patients had a distinct profile of admissions with the most common diagnoses being mental health disorders, gastro-intestinal bleeding, poisoning and liver disease. Universal screening of admissions for alcohol misuse is feasible and identifies a cohort with frequent ED attendances, recurrent admissions and an elevated risk of ARLD. An additional group of patients at an increasing risk of alcohol harm can be

  11. Connectivity map identifies HDAC inhibition as a treatment option of high-risk hepatoblastoma.

    PubMed

    Beck, Alexander; Eberherr, Corinna; Hagemann, Michaela; Cairo, Stefano; Häberle, Beate; Vokuhl, Christian; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Kappler, Roland

    2016-11-01

    Hepatoblastoma (HB) is the most common liver tumor of childhood, usually occurring in children under the age of 3 y. The prognosis of patients presenting with distant metastasis, vascular invasion and advanced tumor stages remains poor and children that do survive often face severe late effects from the aggressive chemotherapy regimen. To identify potential new therapeutics for high risk HB we used a 1,000-gene expression signature as input for a Connectivity Map (CMap) analysis, which predicted histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors as a promising therapy option. Subsequent expression analysis of primary HB and HB cell lines revealed a general overexpression of HDAC1 and HDAC2, which has been suggested to be predictive for the efficacy of HDAC inhibition. Accordingly, treatment of HB cells with the HDAC inhibitors SAHA and MC1568 resulted in a potent reduction of cell viability, induction of apoptosis, reactivation of epigenetically suppressed tumor suppressor genes, and the reversion of the 16-gene HB classifier toward the more favorable expression signature. Most importantly, the combination of HDAC inhibitors and cisplatin - a major chemotherapeutic agent of HB treatment - revealed a strong synergistic effect, even at significantly reduced doses of cisplatin. Our findings suggest that HDAC inhibitors skew HB cells toward a more favorable prognostic phenotype through changes in gene expression, thus indicating a targeted molecular mechanism that seems to enhance the anti-proliferative effects of conventional chemotherapy. Thus, adding HDAC inhibitors to the treatment regimen of high risk HB could potentially improve outcomes and reduce severe late effects.

  12. A Focus Group Exploration of Automated Case-Finders to Identify High-Risk Heart Failure Patients Within an Urban Safety Net Hospital.

    PubMed

    Patterson, Mark E; Miranda, Derick; Schuman, Greg; Eaton, Christopher; Smith, Andrew; Silver, Brad

    2016-01-01

    Leveraging "big data" as a means of informing cost-effective care holds potential in triaging high-risk heart failure (HF) patients for interventions within hospitals seeking to reduce 30-day readmissions. Explore provider's beliefs and perceptions about using an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool that uses unstructured clinical notes to risk-stratify high-risk heart failure patients. Six providers from an inpatient HF clinic within an urban safety net hospital were recruited to participate in a semistructured focus group. A facilitator led a discussion on the feasibility and value of using an EHR tool driven by unstructured clinical notes to help identify high-risk patients. Data collected from transcripts were analyzed using a thematic analysis that facilitated drawing conclusions clustered around categories and themes. From six categories emerged two themes: (1) challenges of finding valid and accurate results, and (2) strategies used to overcome these challenges. Although employing a tool that uses electronic medical record (EMR) unstructured text as the benchmark by which to identify high-risk patients is efficient, choosing appropriate benchmark groups could be challenging given the multiple causes of readmission. Strategies to mitigate these challenges include establishing clear selection criteria to guide benchmark group composition, and quality outcome goals for the hospital. Prior to implementing into practice an innovative EMR-based case-finder driven by unstructured clinical notes, providers are advised to do the following: (1) define patient quality outcome goals, (2) establish criteria by which to guide benchmark selection, and (3) verify the tool's validity and reliability. Achieving consensus on these issues would be necessary for this innovative EHR-based tool to effectively improve clinical decision-making and in turn, decrease readmissions for high-risk patients.

  13. Identifying risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 subtype) in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Loth, Leo; Gilbert, Marius; Wu, Jianmei; Czarnecki, Christina; Hidayat, Muhammad; Xiao, Xiangming

    2011-10-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), subtype H5N1, was first officially reported in Indonesia in 2004. Since then the disease has spread and is now endemic in large parts of the country. This study investigated the statistical relationship between a set of risk factors and the presence or absence of HPAI in Indonesia during 2006 and 2007. HPAI was evaluated through participatory disease surveillance (PDS) in backyard village chickens (the study population), and risk factors included descriptors of people and poultry distribution (separating chickens, ducks and production sectors), poultry movement patterns and agro-ecological conditions. The study showed that the risk factors "elevation", "human population density" and "rice cropping" were significant in accounting for the spatial variation of the PDS-defined HPAI cases. These findings were consistent with earlier studies in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition "commercial poultry population", and two indicators of market locations and transport; "human settlements" and "road length", were identified as significant risk factors in the models. In contrast to several previous studies carried out in Southeast Asia, domestic backyard ducks were not found to be a significant risk factor in Indonesia. The study used surrogate estimates of market locations and marketing chains and further work should focus on the actual location of the live bird markets, and on the flow of live poultry and poultry products between them, so that patterns of possible transmission, and regions of particular risk could be better inferred. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Identifying risk factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1 subtype) in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Leo, Loth; Marius, Gilbert; Jianmei, Wu; Christina, Czarnecki; Muhammad, Hidayat; Xiangming, Xiao

    2016-01-01

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), subtype H5N1, was first officially reported in Indonesia in 2004. Since then the disease has spread and is now endemic in large parts of the country. This study investigated the statistical relationship between a set of risk factors and the presence or absence of HPAI in Indonesia during 2006 and 2007. HPAI was evaluated through participatory disease surveillance (PDS) in backyard village chickens (the study population), and risk factors included descriptors of people and poultry distribution (separating chickens, ducks and production sectors), poultry movement patterns and agro-ecological conditions. The study showed that the risk factors “elevation”, “human population density” and “rice cropping” were significant in accounting for the spatial variation of the PDS-defined HPAI cases. These findings were consistent with earlier studies in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition “commercial poultry population”, and two indicators of market locations and transport; “human settlements” and “road length”, were identified as significant risk factors in the models. In contrast to several previous studies carried out in Southeast Asia, domestic backyard ducks were not found to be a significant risk factor in Indonesia. The study used surrogate estimates of market locations and marketing chains and further work should focus on the actual location of the live bird markets, and on the flow of live poultry and poultry products between them, so that patterns of possible transmission, and regions of particular risk could be better inferred. PMID:21813198

  15. Mild cognitive impairment: an opportunity to identify patients at high risk for progression to Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Levey, Allan; Lah, James; Goldstein, Felicia; Steenland, Kyle; Bliwise, Donald

    2006-07-01

    There is increasing evidence that subtle losses in cognitive function may be symptomatic of a transition to early Alzheimer's disease (AD). Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to AD. Of the MCI subtypes, patients with amnestic MCI (a-MCI) are at greatest risk. The objectives of this article were to review the relationship between MCI, normal aging, and AD, and to summarize recent research on the diagnosis and potential treatment of MCI. Relevant articles were identified through searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE using the terms mild cognitive impairment; cognitive impairment, no dementia; and dementia prodrome, with no restrictions as to year. Additional papers of interest were identified from the reference lists of the identified articles. The search was current as of February 2006. Guidelines and recommendations are being developed to assist physicians in diagnosing MCI, identifying its subtype and etiology, understanding the risks for conversion to AD, and managing disease progression. Given the existence of a subset of individuals with a-MCI, who are at greatest risk for progression to AD but still have high levels of cognition and function, the ability to improve symptoms and delay progression to AD would be particularly beneficial. In a 3-year, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 769 patients with a-MCI, treatment with the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil was associated with a significantly lower rate of progression to AD compared with placebo during the first 12 months of treatment (hazard ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.24-0.76; P=0.004) but not at later time points. Of other types of agents that have been investigated (antioxidants, estrogen replacement therapy, cyclooxygenase-2-selective inhibitors), none have shown significant beneficial effects in delaying cognitive decline or progression to AD. New drugs such as secretase inhibitors, small

  16. Feasibility of identifying a cohort of US women at high risk for HIV infection for HIV vaccine efficacy trials: Longitudinal results of HVTN 906

    PubMed Central

    Koblin, Beryl A.; Metch, Barbara; Novak, Richard M.; Morgan, Cecilia; Lucy, Debbie; Dunbar, Debora; Graham, Parrie; Swann, Edith; Madenwald, Tamra; Escamilia, Gina; Frank, Ian

    2013-01-01

    Background Identifying cohorts of US women with HIV infection rates sufficient for inclusion in vaccine efficacy trials has been challenging. Using geography and sexual network characteristics to inform recruitment strategies, HVTN 906 determined the feasibility of recruiting a cohort of women at high risk for HIV acquisition. Methods HIV uninfected women who reported unprotected sex in the prior six months, resided or engaged in risk behavior in local geographical high-risk pockets and/or had a male partner who had been incarcerated, injected drugs or had concurrent partners were eligible. Behavioral risk assessment, HIV counseling and testing and pregnancy testing were done at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Results Among 799 women, 71% were from local high-risk pockets and had high-risk male partners. Median age was 37 years; 79% were Black; 15% Latina. Over half (55%) reported a new partner in the prior six months, 57% reported a male partner who had concurrent female sexual partners and 37% reported a male partner who had been incarcerated. Retention at 18 months was 79.5%. Annual pregnancy incidence was 12%. Annual HIV incidence was 0.31% (95% CI: 0.06, 0.91). Risk behaviors decreased between screening and six months with smaller changes thereafter. Discussion This cohort of women recruited using new strategies based on geography and sexual network characteristics did not have an HIV incidence high enough for HIV vaccine efficacy trials, despite high baseline levels of risk and a high pregnancy rate. New strategies to identify cohorts of US women for efficacy trials are needed. PMID:23446497

  17. Identifying Children at Risk of High Myopia Using Population Centile Curves of Refraction.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yanxian; Zhang, Jian; Morgan, Ian G; He, Mingguang

    2016-01-01

    To construct reference centile curves of refraction based on population-based data as an age-specific severity scale to evaluate their efficacy as a tool for identifying children at risk of developing high myopia in a longitudinal study. Data of 4218 children aged 5-15 years from the Guangzhou Refractive Error Study in Children (RESC) study, and 354 first-born twins from the Guangzhou Twin Eye Study (GTES) with annual visit were included in the analysis. Reference centile curves for refraction were constructed using a quantile regression model based on the cycloplegic refraction data from the RESC. The risk of developing high myopia (spherical equivalent ≤ -6 diopters [D]) was evaluated as a diagnostic test using the twin follow-up data. The centile curves suggested that the 3rd, 5th, and 10th percentile decreased from -0.25 D, 0.00 D and 0.25 D in 5 year-olds to -6.00 D, -5.65D and -4.63 D in 15 year-olds in the population-based data from RESC. In the GTES cohort, the 5th centile showed the most effective diagnostic value with a sensitivity of 92.9%, a specificity of 97.9% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 65.0% in predicting high myopia onset (≤-6.00D) before the age of 15 years. The PPV was highest (87.5%) in 3rd centile but with only 50.0% sensitivity. The Mathew's correlation coefficient of 5th centile in predicting myopia of -6.0D/-5.0D/-4.0D by age of 15 was 0.77/0.51/0.30 respectively. Reference centile curves provide an age-specific estimation on a severity scale of refractive error in school-aged children. Children located under lower percentiles at young age were more likely to have high myopia at 15 years or probably in adulthood.

  18. Cross-cohort analysis identifies a TEAD4 ↔ MYCN positive-feedback loop as the core regulatory element of high-risk neuroblastoma. | Office of Cancer Genomics

    Cancer.gov

    High-risk neuroblastomas show a paucity of recurrent somatic mutations at diagnosis. As a result, the molecular basis for this aggressive phenotype remains elusive. Recent progress in regulatory network analysis helped us elucidate disease-driving mechanisms downstream of genomic alterations, including recurrent chromosomal alterations. Our analysis identified three molecular subtypes of high-risk neuroblastomas, consistent with chromosomal alterations, and identified subtype-specific master regulator (MR) proteins that were conserved across independent cohorts.

  19. Screening tools to identify patients with complex health needs at risk of high use of health care services: A scoping review.

    PubMed

    Marcoux, Valérie; Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Dufour, Isabelle; Hudon, Catherine

    2017-01-01

    Many people with chronic conditions have complex health needs often due to multiple chronic conditions, psychiatric comorbidities, psychosocial issues, or a combination of these factors. They are at high risk of frequent use of healthcare services. To offer these patients interventions adapted to their needs, it is crucial to be able to identify them early. The aim of this study was to find all existing screening tools that identify patients with complex health needs at risk of frequent use of healthcare services, and to highlight their principal characteristics. Our purpose was to find a short, valid screening tool to identify adult patients of all ages. A scoping review was performed on articles published between 1985 and July 2016, retrieved through a comprehensive search of the Scopus and CINAHL databases, following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley (2005), and completed by Levac et al. (2010). Of the 3,818 articles identified, 30 were included, presenting 14 different screening tools. Seven tools were self-reported. Five targeted adult patients, and nine geriatric patients. Two tools were designed for specific populations. Four can be completed in 15 minutes or less. Most screening tools target elderly persons. The INTERMED self-assessment (IM-SA) targets adults of all ages and can be completed in less than 15 minutes. Future research could evaluate its usefulness as a screening tool for identifying patients with complex needs at risk of becoming high users of healthcare services.

  20. Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

  1. Identifying children at risk for being bullies in the United States.

    PubMed

    Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

    2012-01-01

    To identify risk factors associated with the greatest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among U.S. children. Using the 2001-2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally representative survey of U.S. children in 6th-10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (once or twice or more), moderate (two to three times/month or more), and frequent (weekly or more) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5 to 6 days/week were at greatest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, have more than one alcoholic drink per day, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at greatest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at greatest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the greatest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at the greatest risk for bullying and in targeting interventions. Copyright © 2012 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. [High Risk Federal Program Areas]: An Overview. High-Risk Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Comptroller General of the U.S., Washington, DC.

    This report reviews the status of government agencies and operations that have been identified as at "high risk" for waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement; describes successful progress in some agencies; and looks at recent reform legislation. Six categories being targeted include accountability of defense programs, ensuring that all…

  3. Beta-Blockers for Exams Identify Students at High Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity.

    PubMed

    Butt, Jawad H; Dalsgaard, Søren; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Kruuse, Christina; Fosbøl, Emil L

    2017-04-01

    Beta-blockers relieve the autonomic symptoms of exam-related anxiety and may be beneficial in exam-related and performance anxiety, but knowledge on related psychiatric outcomes is unknown. We hypothesized that beta-blocker therapy for exam-related anxiety identifies young students at risk of later psychiatric events. Using Danish nationwide administrative registries, we studied healthy students aged 14-30 years (1996-2012) with a first-time claimed prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period (May-June); students who were prescribed a beta-blocker for medical reasons were excluded. We matched these students on age, sex, and time of year to healthy and study active controls with no use of beta-blockers. Risk of incident use of antidepressants, incident use of other psychotropic medications, and suicide attempts was examined by cumulative incidence curves for unadjusted associations and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard analyses for adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). We identified 12,147 healthy students with exam-related beta-blocker use and 12,147 matched healthy students with no current or prior use of beta-blockers (median age, 19 years; 80.3% women). Among all healthy students, 0.14% had a first-time prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period with the highest proportion among students aged 19 years (0.39%). Eighty-one percent of the students filled only that single prescription for a beta-blocker during follow-up. During follow-up, 2225 (18.3%) beta-blocker users and 1400 (11.5%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed an antidepressant (p < 0.0001); 1225 (10.1%) beta-blocker users and 658 (5.4%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed a psychotropic drug (p < 0.0001); and 16 (0.13%) beta-blocker users and 6 (0.05%) nonbeta-blocker users attempted suicide (p = 0.03). Exam-related beta-blocker use was associated with an increased risk of antidepressant use (adjusted HRs, 1.68 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1

  4. Development of a safety evaluation procedure for identifying high-risk signalized intersections in the Virginia Department of Transportation's Northern Virginia district.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2007-01-01

    This research was undertaken to develop an evaluation procedure to identify high-risk four-legged signalized intersections in VDOT's Northern Virginia district by traffic movements and times of day. By using the developed procedure, traffic engineers...

  5. Obstetric care providers are able to assess psychosocial risks, identify and refer high-risk pregnant women: validation of a short assessment tool - the KINDEX Greek version.

    PubMed

    Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

    2015-02-21

    Prenatal assessment for psychosocial risk factors and prevention and intervention is scarce and, in most cases, nonexistent in obstetrical care. In this study we aimed to evaluate if the KINDEX, a short instrument developed in Germany, is a useful tool in the hands of non-trained medical staff, in order to identify and refer women in psychosocial risk to the adequate mental health and social services. We also examined the criterion-related concurrent validity of the tool through a validation interview carried out by an expert clinical psychologist. Our final objective was to achieve the cultural adaptation of the KINDEX Greek Version and to offer a valid tool for the psychosocial risk assessment to the obstetric care providers. Two obstetricians and five midwives carried out 93 KINDEX interviews (duration 20 minutes) with pregnant women to assess psychosocial risk factors present during pregnancy. Afterwards they referred women who they identified having two or more psychosocial risk factors to the mental health attention unit of the hospital. During the validation procedure an expert clinical psychologist carried out diagnostic interviews with a randomized subsample of 50 pregnant women based on established diagnostic instruments for stress and psychopathology, like the PSS-14, ESI, PDS, HSCL-25. Significant correlations between the results obtained through the assessment using the KINDEX and the risk areas of stress, psychopathology and trauma load assessed in the validation interview demonstrate the criterion-related concurrent validity of the KINDEX. The referral accuracy of the medical staff is confirmed through comparisons between pregnant women who have and have not been referred to the mental health attention unit. Prenatal screenings for psychosocial risks like the KINDEX are feasible in public health settings in Greece. In addition, validity was confirmed in high correlations between the KINDEX results and the results of the validation interviews. The

  6. Screening tools to identify patients with complex health needs at risk of high use of health care services: A scoping review

    PubMed Central

    Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Dufour, Isabelle

    2017-01-01

    Background Many people with chronic conditions have complex health needs often due to multiple chronic conditions, psychiatric comorbidities, psychosocial issues, or a combination of these factors. They are at high risk of frequent use of healthcare services. To offer these patients interventions adapted to their needs, it is crucial to be able to identify them early. Objective The aim of this study was to find all existing screening tools that identify patients with complex health needs at risk of frequent use of healthcare services, and to highlight their principal characteristics. Our purpose was to find a short, valid screening tool to identify adult patients of all ages. Methods A scoping review was performed on articles published between 1985 and July 2016, retrieved through a comprehensive search of the Scopus and CINAHL databases, following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O’Malley (2005), and completed by Levac et al. (2010). Results Of the 3,818 articles identified, 30 were included, presenting 14 different screening tools. Seven tools were self-reported. Five targeted adult patients, and nine geriatric patients. Two tools were designed for specific populations. Four can be completed in 15 minutes or less. Most screening tools target elderly persons. The INTERMED self-assessment (IM-SA) targets adults of all ages and can be completed in less than 15 minutes. Conclusion Future research could evaluate its usefulness as a screening tool for identifying patients with complex needs at risk of becoming high users of healthcare services. PMID:29190658

  7. Transcriptional dissection of melanoma identifies a high-risk subtype underlying TP53 family genes and epigenome deregulation

    PubMed Central

    Badal, Brateil; Solovyov, Alexander; Di Cecilia, Serena; Chan, Joseph Minhow; Chang, Li-Wei; Iqbal, Ramiz; Aydin, Iraz T.; Rajan, Geena S.; Chen, Chen; Abbate, Franco; Arora, Kshitij S.; Tanne, Antoine; Gruber, Stephen B.; Johnson, Timothy M.; Fullen, Douglas R.; Phelps, Robert; Bhardwaj, Nina; Bernstein, Emily; Ting, David T.; Brunner, Georg; Schadt, Eric E.; Greenbaum, Benjamin D.; Celebi, Julide Tok

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Melanoma is a heterogeneous malignancy. We set out to identify the molecular underpinnings of high-risk melanomas, those that are likely to progress rapidly, metastasize, and result in poor outcomes. METHODS. We examined transcriptome changes from benign states to early-, intermediate-, and late-stage tumors using a set of 78 treatment-naive melanocytic tumors consisting of primary melanomas of the skin and benign melanocytic lesions. We utilized a next-generation sequencing platform that enabled a comprehensive analysis of protein-coding and -noncoding RNA transcripts. RESULTS. Gene expression changes unequivocally discriminated between benign and malignant states, and a dual epigenetic and immune signature emerged defining this transition. To our knowledge, we discovered previously unrecognized melanoma subtypes. A high-risk primary melanoma subset was distinguished by a 122-epigenetic gene signature (“epigenetic” cluster) and TP53 family gene deregulation (TP53, TP63, and TP73). This subtype associated with poor overall survival and showed enrichment of cell cycle genes. Noncoding repetitive element transcripts (LINEs, SINEs, and ERVs) that can result in immunostimulatory signals recapitulating a state of “viral mimicry” were significantly repressed. The high-risk subtype and its poor predictive characteristics were validated in several independent cohorts. Additionally, primary melanomas distinguished by specific immune signatures (“immune” clusters) were identified. CONCLUSION. The TP53 family of genes and genes regulating the epigenetic machinery demonstrate strong prognostic and biological relevance during progression of early disease. Gene expression profiling of protein-coding and -noncoding RNA transcripts may be a better predictor for disease course in melanoma. This study outlines the transcriptional interplay of the cancer cell’s epigenome with the immune milieu with potential for future therapeutic targeting. FUNDING

  8. Inpatient Glucose Values: Determining the Nondiabetic Range and Use in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Rhee, Mary K; Safo, Sandra E; Jackson, Sandra L; Xue, Wenqiong; Olson, Darin E; Long, Qi; Barb, Diana; Haw, J Sonya; Tomolo, Anne M; Phillips, Lawrence S

    2018-04-01

    Many individuals with diabetes remain undiagnosed, leading to delays in treatment and higher risk for subsequent diabetes complications. Despite recommendations for diabetes screening in high-risk groups, the optimal approach is not known. We evaluated the utility of inpatient glucose levels as an opportunistic screening tool for identifying patients at high risk for diabetes. We retrospectively examined 462,421 patients in the US Department of Veterans Affairs healthcare system, hospitalized on medical/surgical services in 2000-2010, for ≥3 days, with ≥2 inpatient random plasma glucose (RPG) measurements. All had continuity of care: ≥1 primary care visit and ≥1 glucose measurement within 2 years before hospitalization and yearly for ≥3 years after discharge. Glucose levels during hospitalization and incidence of diabetes within 3 years after discharge in patients without diabetes were evaluated. Patients had a mean age of 65.0 years, body mass index of 29.9 kg/m 2 , and were 96% male, 71% white, and 18% black. Pre-existing diabetes was present in 39.4%, 1.3% were diagnosed during hospitalization, 8.1% were diagnosed 5 years after discharge, and 51.3% were never diagnosed (NonDM). The NonDM group had the lowest mean hospital RPG value (112 mg/dL [6.2 mmol/L]). Having at least 2 RPG values >140 mg/dL (>7.8 mmol/L), the 95th percentile of NonDM hospital glucose, provided 81% specificity for identifying incident diabetes within 3 years after discharge. Screening for diabetes could be considered in patients with at least 2 hospital glucose values at/above the 95th percentile of the nondiabetic range (141 mg/dL [7.8 mmol/L]). Published by Elsevier Inc.

  9. Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

    PubMed

    Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

  10. Patient selection for day case-eligible surgery: identifying those at high risk for major complications.

    PubMed

    Mathis, Michael R; Naughton, Norah N; Shanks, Amy M; Freundlich, Robert E; Pannucci, Christopher J; Chu, Yijia; Haus, Jason; Morris, Michelle; Kheterpal, Sachin

    2013-12-01

    Due to economic pressures and improvements in perioperative care, outpatient surgical procedures have become commonplace. However, risk factors for outpatient surgical morbidity and mortality remain unclear. There are no multicenter clinical data guiding patient selection for outpatient surgery. The authors hypothesize that specific risk factors increase the likelihood of day case-eligible surgical morbidity or mortality. The authors analyzed adults undergoing common day case-eligible surgical procedures by using the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2010. Common day case-eligible surgical procedures were identified as the most common outpatient surgical Current Procedural Terminology codes provided by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan and Medicare publications. Study variables included anthropometric data and relevant medical comorbidities. The primary outcome was morbidity or mortality within 72 h. Intraoperative complications included adverse cardiovascular events; postoperative complications included surgical, anesthetic, and medical adverse events. Of 244,397 surgeries studied, 232 (0.1%) experienced early perioperative morbidity or mortality. Seven independent risk factors were identified while controlling for surgical complexity: overweight body mass index, obese body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of transient ischemic attack/stroke, hypertension, previous cardiac surgical intervention, and prolonged operative time. The demonstrated low rate of perioperative morbidity and mortality confirms the safety of current day case-eligible surgeries. The authors obtained the first prospectively collected data identifying risk factors for morbidity and mortality with day case-eligible surgery. The results of the study provide new data to advance patient-selection processes for outpatient surgery.

  11. Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test.

    PubMed

    Calabria, Bianca; Clifford, Anton; Shakeshaft, Anthony P; Conigrave, Katherine M; Simpson, Lynette; Bliss, Donna; Allan, Julaine

    2014-09-01

    The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90.

  12. Development and Validation of a Clinic-Based Prediction Tool to Identify Female Athletes at High Risk for Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

    PubMed Central

    Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Khoury, Jane; Succop, Paul; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2012-01-01

    Background Prospective measures of high knee abduction moment (KAM) during landing identify female athletes at high risk for anterior cruciate ligament injury. Laboratory-based measurements demonstrate 90% accuracy in prediction of high KAM. Clinic-based prediction algorithms that employ correlates derived from laboratory-based measurements also demonstrate high accuracy for prediction of high KAM mechanics during landing. Hypotheses Clinic-based measures derived from highly predictive laboratory-based models are valid for the accurate prediction of high KAM status, and simultaneous measurements using laboratory-based and clinic-based techniques highly correlate. Study Design Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods One hundred female athletes (basketball, soccer, volleyball players) were tested using laboratory-based measures to confirm the validity of identified laboratory-based correlate variables to clinic-based measures included in a prediction algorithm to determine high KAM status. To analyze selected clinic-based surrogate predictors, another cohort of 20 female athletes was simultaneously tested with both clinic-based and laboratory-based measures. Results The prediction model (odds ratio: 95% confidence interval), derived from laboratory-based surrogates including (1) knee valgus motion (1.59: 1.17-2.16 cm), (2) knee flexion range of motion (0.94: 0.89°-1.00°), (3) body mass (0.98: 0.94-1.03 kg), (4) tibia length (1.55: 1.20-2.07 cm), and (5) quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio (1.70: 0.48%-6.0%), predicted high KAM status with 84% sensitivity and 67% specificity (P < .001). Clinic-based techniques that used a calibrated physician’s scale, a standard measuring tape, standard camcorder, ImageJ software, and an isokinetic dynamometer showed high correlation (knee valgus motion, r = .87; knee flexion range of motion, r = .95; and tibia length, r = .98) to simultaneous laboratory-based measurements. Body mass and quadriceps-to-hamstrings ratio

  13. Screening techniques to identify people at high risk for diabetic foot ulceration: a prospective multicenter trial.

    PubMed

    Pham, H; Armstrong, D G; Harvey, C; Harkless, L B; Giurini, J M; Veves, A

    2000-05-01

    Diabetic foot ulceration is a preventable long-term complication of diabetes. A multicenter prospective follow-up study was conducted to determine which risk factors in foot screening have a high association with the development of foot ulceration. A total of 248 patients from 3 large diabetic foot centers were enrolled in a prospective study. Neuropathy symptom score, neuropathy disability score (NDS), vibration perception threshold (VPT), Semmes-Weinstein monofilaments (SWFs), joint mobility, peak plantar foot pressures, and vascular status were evaluated in all patients at the beginning of the study. Patients were followed-up every 6 months for a mean period of 30 months (range 6-40), and all new foot ulcers were recorded. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of each risk factor were evaluated. Foot ulcers developed in 95 feet (19%) or 73 patients (29%) during the study. Patients who developed foot ulcers were more frequently men, had diabetes for a longer duration, had nonpalpable pedal pulses, had reduced joint mobility, had a high NDS, had a high VPT, and had an inability to feel a 5.07 SWE NDS alone had the best sensitivity, whereas the combination of the NDS and the inability to feel a 5.07 SWF reached a sensitivity of 99%. On the other hand, the best specificity for a single factor was offered by foot pressures, and the best combination was that of NDS and foot pressures. Univariate logistical regression analysis yielded a statistically significant odds ratio (OR) for sex, race, duration of diabetes, palpable pulses, history of foot ulceration, high NDSs, high VPTs, high SWFs, and high foot pressures. In addition, 94 (99%) of the 95 ulcerated feet had a high NDS and/or SWF which resulted in the highest OR of 26.2 (95% CI 3.6-190). Furthermore, in multivariate logistical regression analysis, the only significant factors were high NDSs, VPTs, SWFs, and foot pressures. Clinical examination and a 5.07 SWF test are the two most sensitive

  14. High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

    PubMed

    Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

    2017-02-01

    Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

  15. Body mass index cut-points to identify cardiometabolic risk in black South Africans.

    PubMed

    Kruger, H Salome; Schutte, Aletta E; Walsh, Corinna M; Kruger, Annamarie; Rennie, Kirsten L

    2017-02-01

    To determine optimal body mass index (BMI) cut-points for the identification of cardiometabolic risk in black South African adults. We performed a cross-sectional study of a weighted sample of healthy black South Africans aged 25-65 years (721 men, 1386 women) from the North West and Free State Provinces. Demographic, lifestyle and anthropometric measures were taken, and blood pressure, fasting serum triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. We defined elevated cardiometabolic risk as having three or more risk factors according to international metabolic syndrome criteria. Receiver operating characteristic curves were applied to identify an optimal BMI cut-point for men and women. BMI had good diagnostic performance to identify clustering of three or more risk factors, as well as individual risk factors: low HDL-cholesterol, elevated fasting glucose and triglycerides, with areas under the curve >.6, but not for high blood pressure. Optimal BMI cut-points averaged 22 kg/m 2 for men and 28 kg/m 2 for women, respectively, with better sensitivity in men (44.0-71.9 %), and in women (60.6-69.8 %), compared to a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 (17-19.1, 53-61.4 %, respectively). Men and women with a BMI >22 and >28 kg/m 2 , respectively, had significantly increased probability of elevated cardiometabolic risk after adjustment for age, alcohol use and smoking. In black South African men, a BMI cut-point of 22 kg/m 2 identifies those at cardiometabolic risk, whereas a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 underestimates risk. In women, a cut-point of 28 kg/m 2 , approaching the WHO obesity cut-point, identifies those at risk.

  16. Identifying risk event in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahyuni, H. C.; Vanany, I.; Ciptomulyono, U.

    2018-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify risk issues in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain from the farm until to the “plate”. The critical points for food safety in physical fresh meat product flow are also identified. The paper employed one case study in the Indonesian fresh meat company by conducting observations and in-depth three stages of interviews. At the first interview, the players, process, and activities in the fresh meat industry were identified. In the second interview, critical points for food safety were recognized. The risk events in each player and process were identified in the last interview. The research will be conducted in three stages, but this article focuses on risk identification process (first stage) only. The second stage is measuring risk and the third stage focuses on determining the value of risk priority. The results showed that there were four players in the fresh meat supply chain: livestock (source), slaughter (make), distributor and retail (deliver). Each player has different activities and identified 16 risk events in the fresh meat supply chain. Some of the strategies that can be used to reduce the occurrence of such risks include improving the ability of laborers on food safety systems, improving cutting equipment and distribution processes

  17. Efficacy of the Kyoto Classification of Gastritis in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Sugimoto, Mitsushige; Ban, Hiromitsu; Ichikawa, Hitomi; Sahara, Shu; Otsuka, Taketo; Inatomi, Osamu; Bamba, Shigeki; Furuta, Takahisa; Andoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    Objective The Kyoto gastritis classification categorizes the endoscopic characteristics of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection-associated gastritis and identifies patterns associated with a high risk of gastric cancer. We investigated its efficacy, comparing scores in patients with H. pylori-associated gastritis and with gastric cancer. Methods A total of 1,200 patients with H. pylori-positive gastritis alone (n=932), early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer (n=189), and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer (n=79) were endoscopically graded according to the Kyoto gastritis classification for atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, fold hypertrophy, nodularity, and diffuse redness. Results The prevalence of O-II/O-III-type atrophy according to the Kimura-Takemoto classification in early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer groups was 45.1%, which was significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (12.7%, p<0.001). Kyoto gastritis scores of atrophy and intestinal metaplasia in the H. pylori-positive cancer group were significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (all p<0.001). No significant differences were noted in the rates of gastric fold hypertrophy or diffuse redness between the two groups. In a multivariate analysis, the risks for H. pylori-positive gastric cancer increased with intestinal metaplasia (odds ratio: 4.453, 95% confidence interval: 3.332-5.950, <0.001) and male sex (1.737, 1.102-2.739, p=0.017). Conclusion Making an appropriate diagnosis and detecting patients at high risk is crucial for achieving total eradication of gastric cancer. The scores of intestinal metaplasia and atrophy of the scoring system in the Kyoto gastritis classification may thus be useful for detecting these patients.

  18. The Baby TALK Model: An Innovative Approach to Identifying High-Risk Children and Families

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Villalpando, Aimee Hilado; Leow, Christine; Hornstein, John

    2012-01-01

    This research report examines the Baby TALK model, an innovative early childhood intervention approach used to identify, recruit, and serve young children who are at-risk for developmental delays, mental health needs, and/or school failure, and their families. The report begins with a description of the model. This description is followed by an…

  19. Risk Factors and Levels of Risk for High School Dropouts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Suhyun; Suh, Jingyo

    2007-01-01

    The study in this article identifies three major risk categories of high school dropouts and evaluates the impact of possible prevention strategies. As students accumulate these risks, they became more likely to drop out and prevention programs become less effective. Additionally, it was found that factors influencing the decision to drop out vary…

  20. Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Methods Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. Results The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Conclusions Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90. PMID:25179547

  1. Remote Sensing as a Landscape Epidemiologic Tool to Identify Villages at High Risk for Malaria Transmission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beck, Louisa R.; Rodriquez, Mario H.; Dister, Sheri W.; Rodriquez, Americo D.; Rejmankova, Eliska; Ulloa, Armando; Meza, Rosa A.; Roberts, Donald R.; Paris, Jack F.; Spanner, Michael A.; hide

    1994-01-01

    A landscape approach using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies was developed to discriminate between villages at high and low risk for malaria transmission, as defined by adult Anopheles albimanus abundance. Satellite data for an area in southern Chiapas, Mexico were digitally processed to generate a map of landscape elements. The GIS processes were used to determine the proportion of mapped landscape elements surrounding 40 villages where An. albimanus data had been collected. The relationships between vector abundance and landscape element proportions were investigated using stepwise discriminant analysis and stepwise linear regression. Both analyses indicated that the most important landscape elements in terms of explaining vector abundance were transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture. Discriminant functions generated for these two elements were able to correctly distinguish between villages with high ind low vector abundance, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Regression results found both transitional swamp and unmanaged pasture proportions to be predictive of vector abundance during the mid-to-late wet season. This approach, which integrates remotely sensed data and GIS capabilities to identify villages with high vector-human contact risk, provides a promising tool for malaria surveillance programs that depend on labor-intensive field techniques. This is particularly relevant in areas where the lack of accurate surveillance capabilities may result in no malaria control action when, in fact, directed action is necessary. In general, this landscape approach could be applied to other vector-borne diseases in areas where: 1. the landscape elements critical to vector survival are known and 2. these elements can be detected at remote sensing scales.

  2. Identifying neonates at a very high risk for mortality among children with congenital diaphragmatic hernia managed with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

    PubMed

    Haricharan, Ramanath N; Barnhart, Douglas C; Cheng, Hong; Delzell, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify mortality risk factors in children with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and generate a prediction score for those at a very high risk for mortality. Data on first ECMO runs of all neonates with CDH, between January 1997 and June 2007, were obtained from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry (N = 2678). The data were split into "training data (TD)" (n = 2006) and "validation data" (n = 672). The primary outcome analyzed was in-hospital mortality. Modified Poisson regression was used for analyses. Overall in-hospital mortality among 2678 neonates (males, 57%; median age at ECMO, 1 day) was 52%. The univariate and multivariable analyses were performed using TD. An empirically weighted mortality prediction score was generated with possible scores ranging from 0 to 35 points. Of 69 who scored 14 or higher in the TD, 62 died (positive predictive value [PPV], 90%), of 37 with 15 or higher, 35 died (PPV, 95%), of 23 with 16 or higher, 22 died (PPV, 96%). A cut-off point of 15 was chosen and was tested using the separate validation dataset. In validation data, the cut-off point 15 had a PPV of 96% (23 died of 24). Scoring 15 or higher on the prediction score identifies neonates with CDH at a very high risk for mortality among those managed with ECMO and could be used in surgical decision making and counseling.

  3. Cross-Cohort Analysis Identifies a TEAD4-MYCN Positive Feedback Loop as the Core Regulatory Element of High-Risk Neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Rajbhandari, Presha; Lopez, Gonzalo; Capdevila, Claudia; Salvatori, Beatrice; Yu, Jiyang; Rodriguez-Barrueco, Ruth; Martinez, Daniel; Yarmarkovich, Mark; Weichert-Leahey, Nina; Abraham, Brian J; Alvarez, Mariano J; Iyer, Archana; Harenza, Jo Lynne; Oldridge, Derek; De Preter, Katleen; Koster, Jan; Asgharzadeh, Shahab; Seeger, Robert C; Wei, Jun S; Khan, Javed; Vandesompele, Jo; Mestdagh, Pieter; Versteeg, Rogier; Look, A Thomas; Young, Richard A; Iavarone, Antonio; Lasorella, Anna; Silva, Jose M; Maris, John M; Califano, Andrea

    2018-05-01

    High-risk neuroblastomas show a paucity of recurrent somatic mutations at diagnosis. As a result, the molecular basis for this aggressive phenotype remains elusive. Recent progress in regulatory network analysis helped us elucidate disease-driving mechanisms downstream of genomic alterations, including recurrent chromosomal alterations. Our analysis identified three molecular subtypes of high-risk neuroblastomas, consistent with chromosomal alterations, and identified subtype-specific master regulator proteins that were conserved across independent cohorts. A 10-protein transcriptional module-centered around a TEAD4-MYCN positive feedback loop-emerged as the regulatory driver of the high-risk subtype associated with MYCN amplification. Silencing of either gene collapsed MYCN -amplified ( MYCN Amp ) neuroblastoma transcriptional hallmarks and abrogated viability in vitro and in vivo Consistently, TEAD4 emerged as a robust prognostic marker of poor survival, with activity independent of the canonical Hippo pathway transcriptional coactivators YAP and TAZ. These results suggest novel therapeutic strategies for the large subset of MYCN-deregulated neuroblastomas. Significance: Despite progress in understanding of neuroblastoma genetics, little progress has been made toward personalized treatment. Here, we present a framework to determine the downstream effectors of the genetic alterations sustaining neuroblastoma subtypes, which can be easily extended to other tumor types. We show the critical effect of disrupting a 10-protein module centered around a YAP/TAZ-independent TEAD4-MYCN positive feedback loop in MYCN Amp neuroblastomas, nominating TEAD4 as a novel candidate for therapeutic intervention. Cancer Discov; 8(5); 582-99. ©2018 AACR. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 517 . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

  4. Identifying high risk medications causing potential drug-drug interactions in outpatients: A prescription database study based on an online surveillance system.

    PubMed

    Toivo, T M; Mikkola, J A V; Laine, K; Airaksinen, M

    2016-01-01

    Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a significant cause for adverse drug events (ADEs). DDIs are often predictable and preventable, but their prevention and management require systematic service development. Most DDI studies focus on interaction rates in hospitalized patients. Less is known of DDIs in outpatients, particularly how community pharmacists could contribute to DDI management by applying their surveillance systems for identifying high-risk medications. The study was related to the implementation of the first online DDI surveillance system in Finnish community pharmacies. The goal was to demonstrate how community pharmacies can utilize their prospective surveillance system 1) for identifying high risk medications causing potential DDIs in outpatients, 2) for collaborative service development with local physicians, and 3) for academic risk management research purposes. All DDI alerts given by the online surveillance system were collected during a one-month period in 16 out of 17 University Pharmacy outlets in Finland, covering approximately 10% of the national outpatient prescription volume. The surveillance system was based on the FASS database, which categorizes DDIs into four classes (A-D) according to their clinical significance. Potential drug-drug DDIs were analyzed for 276,891 dispensed community pharmacy prescriptions. Potential DDIs were associated with 10.8%, or 31,110 of these prescriptions. Clinically significant interaction alerts categorized as FASS classes D (most severe, should be avoided) and C (clinically significant but controllable) were associated with 0.5% and 7.0% of the prescriptions, respectively. Methotrexate and warfarin had the highest risk of causing potentially serious (class D) interactions. These interaction alerts were most frequently between methotrexate and NSAIDs and warfarin and NSAIDs. In general, NSAIDs were the most commonly interacting drugs in this study. This study demonstrates that community pharmacies can actively

  5. A Model To Identify Individuals at High Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Precancerous Lesions in Regions of High Prevalence in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Mengfei; Liu, Zhen; Cai, Hong; Guo, Chuanhai; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Chaoting; Wang, Hui; Hang, Dong; Liu, Fangfang; Deng, Qiuju; Yang, Xin; Yuan, Wenqing; Pan, Yaqi; Li, Jingjing; Zhang, Chanyuan; Shen, Na; He, Zhonghu; Ke, Yang

    2017-10-01

    We aimed to develop a population-based model to identify individuals at high risk for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in regions of China with a high prevalence of this cancer. We collected findings from 15,073 permanent residents (45-69 years old) of 334 randomly selected villages in Hua County, Henan Province, China who underwent endoscopic screening (with iodine staining) for ESCC from January 2012 through September 2015. The entire esophagus and stomach were examined; biopsies were collected from all focal lesions (or from standard sites in the esophagus if no abnormalities were found) and analyzed histologically. Squamous dysplasia, carcinoma in situ, and ESCC were independently confirmed by 2 pathologists. Before endoscopy, subjects completed a questionnaire on ESCC risk factors. Variables were evaluated with unconditional univariate logistic regression analysis; variables found to be significantly associated with ESCC were then analyzed by multivariate logistic regression modeling. We used the Akaike information criterion to develop our final model structure and the coding form of variables with multiple measures. We developed 2 groups of models, separately defining severe dysplasia and above (SDA) (lesions including severe dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) and moderate dysplasia and above (lesions including moderate dysplasia and higher-grade lesions) as outcome events. Age-stratified and whole-age models were developed; their discriminative ability in the full multivariate model and the simple age model was compared. We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the DeLong test to evaluate model performance. Our age-stratified prediction models identified individuals 60 years of age or younger with SDA with an AUC value of 0.795 (95% confidence interval, 0.736-0.854) and individuals older than 60 years with SDA with an AUC value of 0.681 (95% confidence interval, 0.618-0.743). Factors associated with SDA in

  6. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs: Understanding Risk, Protection, and Substance Use among High-Risk Youth. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Hermann, Jack

    This document summarizes findings from the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs, which identified characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes in 48 prevention programs. Major findings include: as youth age, levels of risk and protection shift considerably,…

  7. Risk assessment of soils identified on firefighter turnout gear.

    PubMed

    Easter, Elizabeth; Lander, Deborah; Huston, Tabitha

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to identify the composition of soils on firefighter turnout gear and to determine the dermal exposure risks associated with the soils. Nine used Nomex hoods from the Philadelphia fire department were analyzed for the presence of trace metals and seven sets of used turnout gear were analyzed for semi-volatile organics. Turnout gear samples were removed from areas of the gear known to have high levels of dermal absorption including the collar, armpit, wrist, and crotch areas, from either the outer shell or thermal liner layers. The following compounds were detected: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phthalate plasticizers, and polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants (PBDEs). A screening risk assessment was conducted by converting the measured concentrations to an estimated dermally absorbed dose based on estimates for the permeation coefficient (Kp) and an assumed firefighting exposure scenario. Benzo(a) pyrene had the highest dermal exposure risk based on carcinogenic effects and PBDE-99 had the highest dermal exposure risk based on non-carcinogenic effects. For the metals, arsenic had the highest dermal exposure risk for the use hoods.

  8. Can subsyndromal manifestations of major depression be identified in children at risk?

    PubMed

    Uchida, M; Fitzgerald, M; Lin, K; Carrellas, N; Woodworth, H; Biederman, J

    2017-02-01

    Children of parents with major depression are at significantly increased risk for developing major depression themselves; however, not all children at genetic risk will develop major depressive disorder (MDD). We investigated the utility of subsyndromal scores on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Anxiety/Depression scale in identifying children at the highest risk for pediatric MDD from among the pool of children of parents with MDD or bipolar disorder. The sample was derived from two previously conducted longitudinal case-control family studies of psychiatrically and pediatrically referred youth and their families. For this study, probands were stratified based on the presence or absence of a parental mood disorder. Subsyndromal scores on the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale significantly separated the children at high risk for pediatric MDD from those at low risk in a variety of functional areas, including social and academic functioning. Additionally, children at genetic risk without elevated CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale scores were largely indistinguishable from controls. These results suggest that the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale can help identify children at highest risk for pediatric MDD. If implemented clinically, this scale would cost-effectively screen children and identify those most in need of early intervention resources to impede the progression of depression. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999-2012.

    PubMed

    Stefanoff, Pawel; Rubikowska, Barbara; Bratkowski, Jakub; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Rosinska, Magdalena

    2018-04-04

    During 1999–2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999–2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10–20 days, precipitation over the previous 20–30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping.

  10. Efficacy of the Kyoto Classification of Gastritis in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Sugimoto, Mitsushige; Ban, Hiromitsu; Ichikawa, Hitomi; Sahara, Shu; Otsuka, Taketo; Inatomi, Osamu; Bamba, Shigeki; Furuta, Takahisa; Andoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    Objective The Kyoto gastritis classification categorizes the endoscopic characteristics of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection-associated gastritis and identifies patterns associated with a high risk of gastric cancer. We investigated its efficacy, comparing scores in patients with H. pylori-associated gastritis and with gastric cancer. Methods A total of 1,200 patients with H. pylori-positive gastritis alone (n=932), early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer (n=189), and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer (n=79) were endoscopically graded according to the Kyoto gastritis classification for atrophy, intestinal metaplasia, fold hypertrophy, nodularity, and diffuse redness. Results The prevalence of O-II/O-III-type atrophy according to the Kimura-Takemoto classification in early-stage H. pylori-positive gastric cancer and successfully treated H. pylori-negative cancer groups was 45.1%, which was significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (12.7%, p<0.001). Kyoto gastritis scores of atrophy and intestinal metaplasia in the H. pylori-positive cancer group were significantly higher than in subjects with gastritis alone (all p<0.001). No significant differences were noted in the rates of gastric fold hypertrophy or diffuse redness between the two groups. In a multivariate analysis, the risks for H. pylori-positive gastric cancer increased with intestinal metaplasia (odds ratio: 4.453, 95% confidence interval: 3.332-5.950, <0.001) and male sex (1.737, 1.102-2.739, p=0.017). Conclusion Making an appropriate diagnosis and detecting patients at high risk is crucial for achieving total eradication of gastric cancer. The scores of intestinal metaplasia and atrophy of the scoring system in the Kyoto gastritis classification may thus be useful for detecting these patients. PMID:28321054

  11. Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

    DOE PAGES

    Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.; ...

    2015-10-21

    Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

  12. Framework for Identifying Cybersecurity Risks in Manufacturing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hutchins, Margot J.; Bhinge, Raunak; Micali, Maxwell K.

    Increasing connectivity, use of digital computation, and off-site data storage provide potential for dramatic improvements in manufacturing productivity, quality, and cost. However, there are also risks associated with the increased volume and pervasiveness of data that are generated and potentially accessible to competitors or adversaries. Enterprises have experienced cyber attacks that exfiltrate confidential and/or proprietary data, alter information to cause an unexpected or unwanted effect, and destroy capital assets. Manufacturers need tools to incorporate these risks into their existing risk management processes. This article establishes a framework that considers the data flows within a manufacturing enterprise and throughout its supplymore » chain. The framework provides several mechanisms for identifying generic and manufacturing-specific vulnerabilities and is illustrated with details pertinent to an automotive manufacturer. Finally, in addition to providing manufacturers with insights into their potential data risks, this framework addresses an outcome identified by the NIST Cybersecurity Framework.« less

  13. Identifying cardiovascular disease risk and outcome: use of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration ratio versus metabolic syndrome criteria.

    PubMed

    Salazar, M R; Carbajal, H A; Espeche, W G; Aizpurúa, M; Leiva Sisnieguez, C E; March, C E; Balbín, E; Stavile, R N; Reaven, G M

    2013-06-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been shown to predict both risk and CVD events. We have identified sex-specific values for the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio associated with an unfavourable cardio-metabolic risk profile, but it is not known whether it also predicts CVD outcome. To quantify risk for CVD outcomes associated with a high TG/HDL-C ratio and to compare this risk with that predicted using MetS, a population longitudinal prospective observational study was performed in Rauch City, Buenos Aires, Argentina. In 2003 surveys were performed on a population random sample of 926 inhabitants. In 2012, 527 women and 269 men were surveyed again in search of new CVD events. The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. The first CVD event was the primary endpoint. Relative risks for CVD events between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C cut-points, and with or without MetS, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard. The number of subjects deemed at 'high' CVD risk on the basis of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio (30%) or having the MetS (35%) was relatively comparable. The unadjusted hazard risk was significantly increased when comparing 'high' versus 'low' risk groups no matter which criteria was used, although it was somewhat higher in those with the MetS (HR = 3.17, 95% CI:1.79-5.60 vs. 2.16, 95% CI:1.24-3.75). However, this difference essentially disappeared when adjusted for sex and age (HR = 2.09, 95% CI:1.18-3.72 vs. 2.01, 95% CI:1.14-3.50 for MetS and TG/HDL-C respectively). An elevated TG/HDL-C ratio appears to be just as effective as the MetS diagnosis in predicting the development of CVD. © 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

  14. Detection of High-Risk Atherosclerotic Plaque

    PubMed Central

    Fleg, Jerome L.; Stone, Gregg W.; Fayad, Zahi A.; Granada, Juan F.; Hatsukami, Thomas S.; Kolodgie, Frank D.; Ohayon, Jacques; Pettigrew, Roderic; Sabatine, Marc S.; Tearney, Guillermo; Waxman, Sergio; Domanski, Michael J.; Srinivas, Pothur R.; Narula, Jagat

    2013-01-01

    The leading cause of major morbidity and mortality in most countries around the world is atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, most commonly caused by thrombotic occlusion of a high-risk coronary plaque resulting in myocardial infarction or cardiac death, or embolization from a high-risk carotid plaque resulting in stroke. The lesions prone to result in such clinical events are termed vulnerable or high-risk plaques, and their identification may lead to the development of pharmacological and mechanical intervention strategies to prevent such events. Autopsy studies from patients dying of acute myocardial infarction or sudden death have shown that such events typically arise from specific types of atherosclerotic plaques, most commonly the thin-cap fibroatheroma. However, the search in human beings for vulnerable plaques before their becoming symptomatic has been elusive. Recently, the PROSPECT (Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree) study demonstrated that coronary plaques that are likely to cause future cardiac events, regardless of angiographic severity, are characterized by large plaque burden and small lumen area and/or are thin-cap fibroatheromas verified by radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound imaging. This study opened the door to identifying additional invasive and noninvasive imaging modalities that may improve detection of high-risk atherosclerotic lesions and patients. Beyond classic risk factors, novel biomarkers and genetic profiling may identify those patients in whom noninvasive imaging for vulnerable plaque screening, followed by invasive imaging for risk confirmation is warranted, and in whom future pharmacological and/or device-based focal or regional therapies may be applied to improve long-term prognosis. PMID:22974808

  15. A Prospective Cohort Study of Absconsion Incidents in Forensic Psychiatric Settings: Can We Identify Those at High-Risk?

    PubMed Central

    Cullen, Alexis E.; Jewell, Amelia; Tully, John; Coghlan, Suzanne; Dean, Kimberlie; Fahy, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Background Incidents of absconsion in forensic psychiatric units can have potentially serious consequences, yet surprisingly little is known about the characteristics of patients who abscond from these settings. The few previous studies conducted to date have employed retrospective designs, and no attempt has been made to develop an empirically-derived risk assessment scale. In this prospective study, we aimed to identify predictors of absconsion over a two-year period and investigate the feasibility of developing a brief risk assessment scale. Methods The study examined a representative sample of 135 patients treated in forensic medium- and low-secure wards. At baseline, demographic, clinical, treatment-related, and offending/behavioural factors were ascertained from electronic medical records and the treating teams. Incidents of absconsion (i.e., failure to return from leave, incidents of escape, and absconding whilst on escorted leave) were assessed at a two-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the strongest predictors of absconsion which were then weighted according to their ability to discriminate absconders and non-absconders. The predictive utility of a brief risk assessment scale based on these weighted items was evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). Results During the two-year follow-up period, 27 patients (20%) absconded, accounting for 56 separate incidents. In multivariate analyses, four factors relating to offending and behaviour emerged as the strongest predictors of absconsion: history of sexual offending, previous absconsion, recent inpatient verbal aggression, and recent inpatient substance use. The weighted risk scale derived from these factors had moderate-to-good predictive accuracy (ROC area under the curve: 0.80; sensitivity: 067; specificity: 0.71), a high negative predictive value (0.91), but a low positive predictive value (0.34). Conclusion Potentially-targetable recent behaviours, such as

  16. Identifying and preserving high-water mark data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koenig, Todd A.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; O'Connor, Jim; McGee, Benton D.; Holmes, Robert R.; Hollins, Ryan; Forbes, Brandon T.; Kohn, Michael S.; Schellekens, Mathew; Martin, Zachary W.; Peppler, Marie C.

    2016-03-08

    High-water marks provide valuable data for understanding recent and historical flood events. The proper collection and recording of high-water mark data from perishable and preserved evidence informs flood assessments, research, and water resource management. Given the high cost of flooding in developed areas, experienced hydrographers, using the best available techniques, can contribute high-quality data toward efforts such as public education of flood risk, flood inundation mapping, flood frequency computations, indirect streamflow measurement, and hazard assessments.This manual presents guidance for skilled high-water mark identification, including marks left behind in natural and man-made environments by tranquil and rapid flowing water. This manual also presents pitfalls and challenges associated with various types of flood evidence that help hydrographers identify the best high-water marks and assess the uncertainty associated with a given mark. Proficient high-water mark data collection contributes to better understanding of the flooding process and reduces risk through greater ability to estimate flood probability.The U.S. Geological Survey, operating the Nation’s premier water data collection network, encourages readers of this manual to familiarize themselves with the art and science of high-water mark collection. The U.S. Geological survey maintains a national database at http://water.usgs.gov/floods/FEV/ that includes high-water mark information for many flood events, and local U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Centers can provide information to interested readers about participation in data collection and flood documentation efforts as volunteers or observers.

  17. New arrows in the quiver for targeting care management: high-risk versus high-opportunity case identification.

    PubMed

    Bernstein, Richard H

    2007-01-01

    "Care management" purposefully obscures the distinctions between disease and case management and stresses their common features: action in the present to prevent adverse future outcomes and costs. It includes identifying a high-need population by referrals, screening, or data analysis, assessing those likely to benefit from interventions, intervening, evaluating the intervention, and adjusting interventions when needed. High-risk individuals can be identified using at least 9 techniques, from referrals and questionnaires to retrospective claims analysis and predictive models. Other than referrals, software based on the risk-adjustment methodology that we have adapted can incorporate all these methodologies. Because the risk adjustment employs extensive case mix and severity adjustment, it provides care managers with 3 innovative ways to identify not only high-risk individuals but also high-opportunity cases.

  18. Identifying risk factors for exposure to culturable allergenic moulds in energy efficient homes by using highly specific monoclonal antibodies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sharpe, Richard A.; Cocq, Kate Le; Nikolaou, Vasilis

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in identifying culturable allergenic fungi present in visible mould growth in energy efficient homes, and to identify risk factors for exposure to these known allergenic fungi. Swabs were taken from fungal contaminated surfaces and culturable yeasts and moulds isolated by using mycological culture. Soluble antigens from cultures were tested by ELISA using mAbs specific to the culturable allergenic fungi Aspergillus and Penicillium spp., Ulocladium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum spp., Cladosporium spp., Fusarium spp., and Trichoderma spp. Diagnostic accuracies of the ELISA tests were determined by sequencing ofmore » the internally transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-5.8S-ITS2-encoding regions of recovered fungi following ELISA. There was 100% concordance between the two methods, with ELISAs providing genus-level identity and ITS sequencing providing species-level identities (210 out of 210 tested). Species of Aspergillus/Penicillium, Cladosporium, Ulocladium/Alternaria/Epicoccum, Fusarium and Trichoderma were detected in 82% of the samples. The presence of condensation was associated with an increased risk of surfaces being contaminated by Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. and Cladosporium spp., whereas moisture within the building fabric (water ingress/rising damp) was only associated with increased risk of Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. Property type and energy efficiency levels were found to moderate the risk of indoor surfaces becoming contaminated with Aspergillus/Penicillium and Cladosporium which in turn was modified by the presence of condensation, water ingress and rising damp, consistent with previous literature. - Highlights: • Monoclonal antibodies were used to track culturable allergenic moulds in homes. • Allergenic moulds were recovered from 82% of swabs from contaminated surfaces. • The mAbs were highly specific with 100% agreement to PCR of recovered fungi. • Improvements to

  19. Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Zhenjun; Wang, Ligui; Sun, Weige; Hou, Xuexin; Yang, Haiyan; Sun, Lina; Xu, Shuai; Sun, Qiangzheng; Zhang, Jingshan; Song, Hongbin; Lin, Hualiang

    2013-11-21

    Spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery incidence was mapped at the district level in Wuhan, China. And a generalized additive time series model was used to examine the effect of daily weather factors on bacillary dysentery in the high-risk areas, after controlling for potential confounding factors. Central districts were found to be the high-risk areas. The time series analysis found an acute effect of meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery occurrence. A positive association was found for mean temperature (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase being 0.94% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46% to 1.43% on the lag day 2), while a negative effect was observed for relative humidity and rainfall, the ER for 1% increase in relative humidity was -0.21% (95% CI: -0.34% to -0.08%), and the ER for 1 mm increase in rainfall was -0.23% (95% CI: -0.37% to -0.09%). This study suggests that bacillary dysentery prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations.

  20. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-12-01

    Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

  1. Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

    PubMed

    Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-08-01

    Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

  2. Identifying children at risk for type 2 diabetes in underserved communities.

    PubMed

    Vivian, Eva M; Carrel, Aaron L; Becker, Tara

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify and assess health behaviors among ethnic minority children at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes screenings were conducted at community centers, churches, and local neighborhood health fairs in Madison, Wisconsin. During these events, diabetes risk assessment surveys were given to parents of children between the ages of 10 to 19 years. Parents who identified their children as having 2 or more risk factors for type 2 diabetes were invited to have their child screened for type 2 diabetes. A total of 86 children between the ages of 10 to 19 years (mean age = 13; 58% male) were screened for diabetes. Fifty-one percent of the children were overweight or obese with 38% having >3 risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there was no significant difference in the nutritional habits reported between normal, overweight, or obese children, fewer overweight and obese children reported exercising at least 30 minutes 5 to 7 days a week compared to children with a normal weight (P = .033). Prevention of diabetes is a powerful public health intervention. Targeted diabetes screening in disadvantaged, underserved communities is an effective way to identify families with children at risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, information obtained from these screenings can assist researchers and clinicians in designing accessible and affordable health promotion interventions that are culturally relevant to the youth and families within the community.

  3. Identifying and managing the risks of medical ionizing radiation in endourology.

    PubMed

    Yecies, Todd; Averch, Timothy D; Semins, Michelle J

    2018-02-01

    The risks of exposure to medical ionizing radiation is of increasing concern both among medical professionals and the general public. Patients with nephrolithiasis are exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation through both diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. Endourologists who perform a high-volume of fluoroscopy guided procedures are also exposed to significant quantities of ionizing radiation. The combination of judicious use of radiation-based imaging modalities, application of new imaging techniques such as ultra-low dose computed tomography (CT) scan, and modifying use of current technology such as increasing ultrasound and pulsed fluoroscopy utilization offers the possibility of significantly reducing radiation exposure. We present a review of the literature regarding the risks of medical ionizing radiation to patients and surgeons as it pertains to the field of endourology and interventions that can be performed to limit this exposure. A review of the current state of the literature was performed using MEDLINE and PubMed. Interventions designed to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure were identified and analyzed. Summaries of the data were compiled and synthesized in the body of the text. While no level 1 evidence exists demonstrating the risk of secondary malignancy with radiation exposure, the preponderance of evidence suggests a dose and age dependent increase in malignancy risk from ionizing radiation. Patients with nephrolithiasis were exposed to an average effective dose of 37mSv over a 2 year period. Multiple evidence-based interventions to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure and associated risk were identified. Current evidence suggest an age and dose dependent risk of secondary malignancy from ionizing radiation. Urologists must act in accordance with ALARA principles to safely manage nephrolithiasis while minimizing radiation exposure.

  4. Fetal alcohol-spectrum disorders: identifying at-risk mothers

    PubMed Central

    Montag, Annika C

    2016-01-01

    Fetal alcohol-spectrum disorders (FASDs) are a collection of physical and neurobehavioral disabilities caused by prenatal exposure to alcohol. To prevent or mitigate the costly effects of FASD, we must identify mothers at risk for having a child with FASD, so that we may reach them with interventions. Identifying mothers at risk is beneficial at all time points, whether prior to pregnancy, during pregnancy, or following the birth of the child. In this review, three approaches to identifying mothers at risk are explored: using characteristics of the mother and her pregnancy, using laboratory biomarkers, and using self-report assessment of alcohol-consumption risk. At present, all approaches have serious limitations. Research is needed to improve the sensitivity and specificity of biomarkers and screening instruments, and to link them to outcomes as opposed to exposure. Universal self-report screening of all women of childbearing potential should ideally be incorporated into routine obstetric and gynecologic care, followed by brief interventions, including education and personalized feedback for all who consume alcohol, and referral to treatment as indicated. Effective biomarkers or combinations of biomarkers may be used during pregnancy and at birth to determine maternal and fetal alcohol exposure. The combination of self-report and biomarker screening may help identify a greater proportion of women at risk for having a child with FASD, allowing them to access information and treatment, and empowering them to make decisions that benefit their children. PMID:27499649

  5. Cellular Proliferation by Multiplex Immunohistochemistry Identifies High-Risk Multiple Myeloma in Newly Diagnosed, Treatment-Naive Patients.

    PubMed

    Ely, Scott; Forsberg, Peter; Ouansafi, Ihsane; Rossi, Adriana; Modin, Alvin; Pearse, Roger; Pekle, Karen; Perry, Arthur; Coleman, Morton; Jayabalan, David; Di Liberto, Maurizio; Chen-Kiang, Selina; Niesvizky, Ruben; Mark, Tomer M

    2017-12-01

    Therapeutic options for multiple myeloma (MM) are growing, yet clinical outcomes remain heterogeneous. Cytogenetic analysis and disease staging are mainstays of risk stratification, but data suggest a complex interplay between numerous abnormalities. Myeloma cell proliferation is a metric shown to predict outcomes, but available methods are not feasible in clinical practice. Multiplex immunohistochemistry (mIHC), using multiple immunostains simultaneously, is universally available for clinical use. We tested mIHC as a method to calculate a plasma cell proliferation index (PCPI). By mIHC, marrow trephine core biopsy samples were costained for CD138, a plasma cell-specific marker, and Ki-67. Myeloma cells (CD138 + ) were counted as proliferating if coexpressing Ki-67. Retrospective analysis was performed on 151 newly diagnosed, treatment-naive patients divided into 2 groups on the basis of myeloma cell proliferation: low (PCPI ≤ 5%, n = 87), and high (PCPI > 5%, n = 64). Median overall survival (OS) was not reached versus 78.9 months (P = .0434) for the low versus high PCPI groups. Multivariate analysis showed that only high-risk cytogenetics (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.02; P = .023), International Staging System (ISS) stage > I (HR = 2.30; P = .014), and PCPI > 5% (HR = 1.70; P = .041) had independent effects on OS. Twenty-three (36%) of the 64 patients with low-risk disease (ISS stage 1, without high-risk cytogenetics) were uniquely reidentified as high risk by PCPI. PCPI is a practical method that predicts OS in newly diagnosed myeloma and facilitates broader use of MM cell proliferation for risk stratification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. A Policy Intervention Study to Identify High-Risk Groups to Prevent Industrial Accidents in Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    Yi, Kwan Hyung; Lee, Seung Soo

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this study is to identify high-risk groups for industrial accidents by setting up 2003 as the base year and conducting an in-depth analysis of the trends of major industrial accident indexes the index of industrial accident rate, the index of occupational injury rate, the index of occupational illness and disease rate per 10,000 people, and the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people for the past 10 years. This study selected industrial accident victims, who died or received more than 4 days of medical care benefits, due to occupational accidents and diseases occurring at workplaces, subject to the Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Act, as the study population. According to the trends of four major indexes by workplace characteristics, the whole industry has shown a decreasing tendency in all four major indexes since the base year (2003); as of 2012, the index of industrial accident rate was 67, while the index of occupational injury fatality rate per 10,000 people was 59. The manufacturing industry, age over 50 years and workplaces with more than 50 employees showed a high severity level of occupational accidents. Male workers showed a higher severity level of occupational accidents than female workers. The employment period of < 3 years and newly hired workers with a relatively shorter working period are likely to have more occupational accidents than others. Overall, an industrial accident prevention policy must be established by concentrating all available resources and capacities of these high-risk groups.

  7. Detection of high-sensitivity troponin in outpatients with stable pulmonary hypertension identifies a subgroup at higher risk of adverse outcomes.

    PubMed

    Roy, Andrew K; McCullagh, Brian N; Segurado, Ricardo; McGorrian, Catherine; Keane, Elizabeth; Keaney, John; Fitzgibbon, Maria N; Mahon, Niall G; Murray, Patrick T; Gaine, Sean P

    2014-01-01

    The detection of elevations in cardiorenal biomarkers, such as troponins, B-type natriuretic peptides (BNPs), and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalins, are associated with poor outcomes in patients hospitalized with acute heart failure. Less is known about the association of these markers with adverse events in chronic right ventricular dysfunction due to pulmonary hypertension, or whether their measurement may improve risk assessment in the outpatient setting. We performed a cohort study of 108 patients attending the National Pulmonary Hypertension Unit in Dublin, Ireland, from 2007 to 2009. Cox proportional hazards analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine predictors of mortality and hospitalization. Death or hospitalization occurred in 50 patients (46.3%) during the median study period of 4.1 years. Independent predictors of mortality were: 1) decreasing 6-minute walk test (6MWT; hazard ratio [HR] 12.8; P < .001); 2) BNP (HR 6.68; P < .001); and 3) highly sensitive troponin (hsTnT; HR 5.48; P < .001). Adjusted hazard analyses remained significant when hsTnT was added to a model with BNP and 6MWT (HR 9.26, 95% CI 3.61-23.79), as did the predictive ability of the model for death and rehospitalization (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.90). Detection of troponin using a highly sensitive assay identifies a pulmonary hypertension subgroup with a poorer prognosis. hsTnT may also be used in a risk prediction model to identify patients at higher risk who may require escalation of targeted pulmonary vasodilator therapies and closer clinical surveillance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zhenjun; Wang, Ligui; Sun, Weige; Hou, Xuexin; Yang, Haiyan; Sun, Lina; Xu, Shuai; Sun, Qiangzheng; Zhang, Jingshan; Song, Hongbin; Lin, Hualiang

    2013-01-01

    Spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery incidence was mapped at the district level in Wuhan, China. And a generalized additive time series model was used to examine the effect of daily weather factors on bacillary dysentery in the high-risk areas, after controlling for potential confounding factors. Central districts were found to be the high-risk areas. The time series analysis found an acute effect of meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery occurrence. A positive association was found for mean temperature (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase being 0.94% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46% to 1.43% on the lag day 2), while a negative effect was observed for relative humidity and rainfall, the ER for 1% increase in relative humidity was −0.21% (95% CI: −0.34% to −0.08%), and the ER for 1 mm increase in rainfall was −0.23% (95% CI: −0.37% to −0.09%). This study suggests that bacillary dysentery prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations. PMID:24257434

  9. Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

    PubMed

    Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction strategies... responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk reduction strategies? 102-80.50 Section... Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for...

  11. Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media.

    PubMed

    Lv, Meizhen; Li, Ang; Liu, Tianli; Zhu, Tingshao

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F 1 = 0.48; t2: F 1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F 1 = 0.41; t2: F 1 = 0.48) on different

  12. Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Tianli

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F1 = 0.48; t2: F1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F1 = 0.41; t2: F1 = 0.48) on different

  13. The Readmission Risk Flag: Using the Electronic Health Record to Automatically Identify Patients at Risk for 30-day Readmission

    PubMed Central

    Baillie, Charles A.; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C. William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. Objective To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system’s EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Design Retrospective and prospective cohort. Setting Healthcare system consisting of three hospitals. Patients All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. Interventions An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Measures Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Results Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a c-statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%) and c-statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. Conclusions An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. PMID:24227707

  14. The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

    PubMed

    Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

    2013-12-01

    Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  15. Simple Test of Manual Dexterity Can Help to Identify Persons at High Risk for Neurodegenerative Diseases in the Community.

    PubMed

    Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; Koudstaal, Peter J; Ikram, M Arfan

    2017-01-01

    Early identification of individuals at high risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases is essential for timely preventive intervention. However, simple methods that can be used for risk assessment in general practice are lacking. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used the Purdue Pegboard Test (PPT) to assess manual dexterity in 4,856 persons (median age 70 years, 58% women) free of parkinsonism and dementia between 2000 and 2004. We followed these persons until January 1, 2012 for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases (defined as first diagnosis of parkinsonism or dementia). We determined the association of PPT scores with incident neurodegenerative disease, adjusting for age, sex, study cohort, level of education, smoking, preferred hand, parental history, memory complaints, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Furthermore, we determined the incremental predictive value of PPT, expressed as change in risk classification and discrimination. During follow-up (median 9.2 years), 277 participants were diagnosed with a neurodegenerative disease (227 with dementia and 50 with parkinsonism). Lower PPT scores were associated with higher risk of incident neurodegenerative diseases (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.41) and improved discrimination of incident neurodegenerative diseases. We also observed significant associations of PPT scores separately with incident dementia (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.39]) and incident parkinsonism (HR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67). A rapid, nonlaboratory test of manual dexterity may help to identify persons at high risk for neurodegenerative diseases. This highlights the importance of motor function in the preclinical phase of both dementia and parkinsonism and may aid in selecting individuals for refined screening and neuroprotective trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e

  16. An application in identifying high-risk populations in alternative tobacco product use utilizing logistic regression and CART: a heuristic comparison.

    PubMed

    Lei, Yang; Nollen, Nikki; Ahluwahlia, Jasjit S; Yu, Qing; Mayo, Matthew S

    2015-04-09

    Other forms of tobacco use are increasing in prevalence, yet most tobacco control efforts are aimed at cigarettes. In light of this, it is important to identify individuals who are using both cigarettes and alternative tobacco products (ATPs). Most previous studies have used regression models. We conducted a traditional logistic regression model and a classification and regression tree (CART) model to illustrate and discuss the added advantages of using CART in the setting of identifying high-risk subgroups of ATP users among cigarettes smokers. The data were collected from an online cross-sectional survey administered by Survey Sampling International between July 5, 2012 and August 15, 2012. Eligible participants self-identified as current smokers, African American, White, or Latino (of any race), were English-speaking, and were at least 25 years old. The study sample included 2,376 participants and was divided into independent training and validation samples for a hold out validation. Logistic regression and CART models were used to examine the important predictors of cigarettes + ATP users. The logistic regression model identified nine important factors: gender, age, race, nicotine dependence, buying cigarettes or borrowing, whether the price of cigarettes influences the brand purchased, whether the participants set limits on cigarettes per day, alcohol use scores, and discrimination frequencies. The C-index of the logistic regression model was 0.74, indicating good discriminatory capability. The model performed well in the validation cohort also with good discrimination (c-index = 0.73) and excellent calibration (R-square = 0.96 in the calibration regression). The parsimonious CART model identified gender, age, alcohol use score, race, and discrimination frequencies to be the most important factors. It also revealed interesting partial interactions. The c-index is 0.70 for the training sample and 0.69 for the validation sample. The misclassification

  17. Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Troponin-T to Identify Patients at Risk of Left Ventricular Graft Dysfunction After Heart Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Méndez, A B; Ordonez-Llanos, J; Mirabet, S; Galan, J; Maestre, M L; Brossa, V; Rivilla, M T; López, L; Koller, T; Sionis, A; Roig, E

    2016-11-01

    Primary graft dysfunction after heart transplantation (HTx) has a very high mortality rate, especially if the left ventricle (PGD-LV) is involved. Early diagnosis is important to select the appropriate therapy to improve prognosis. The value of high-sensitivity troponin T (HS-TNT) measurement obtained at patient arrival at the intensive care unit was analyzed in 71 HTx patients. Mild or moderate PGD-LV was defined by hemodynamic compromise with one of the following criteria: left ventricular ejection fraction <40%, hemodynamic compromise with right atrial pressure >15 mm Hg, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure >20 mm Hg, cardiac index <2.0 L/min/m 2 , hypotension (mean arterial pressure <70 mm Hg), and need for high-dose inotropes (inotrope score >10) or newly placed intra-aortic balloon pump. The mean recipient age was 54 ± 12 years (73% men), and donor age was 47 ± 11 years. Ischemic time was 200 ± 51 minutes, and coronary bypass time was 122 ± 31 minutes. Nine (13%) HTx patients were diagnosed with PGD-LV post-HTx, 8 with biventricular dysfunction. Four patients died, 2 with PGD-LV (22%) and 2 without PGD (4%). Mean HS-TNT before HTx was 158 ± 565 ng/L, and post-HT was 1621 ± 1269 ng/L. The area under the curve (receiver-operator characteristic) of HS-TNT to detect patients at risk of PGD-LV was 0.860 (P < .003). A cutoff value of HS-TNT >2000 ng/L had a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87% to identify patients at risk of PGD-LV. Multivariate analysis identified HS-TNT >2000 ng/L (P < .02) and coronary bypass-time (P < .01) as independent predictors of PGD-LV. HS-TNT >2000 ng/L at intensive care admission after HT and prolonged coronary bypass time were the most powerful predictors of PGD-LV. HS-TNT may be helpful for early detection of HTx patients at risk of PGD-LV. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

    2003-01-01

    The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

  19. Identifying areas of deforestation risk for REDD+ using a species modeling tool

    PubMed Central

    Riveros, Juan Carlos; Forrest, Jessica L

    2014-01-01

    Background To implement the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, countries need to prioritize areas to combat future deforestation CO2 emissions, identify the drivers of deforestation around which to develop mitigation actions, and quantify and value carbon for financial mechanisms. Each comes with its own methodological challenges, and existing approaches and tools to do so can be costly to implement or require considerable technical knowledge and skill. Here, we present an approach utilizing a machine learning technique known as Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) to identify areas at high deforestation risk in the study area in Madre de Dios, Peru under a business-as-usual scenario in which historic deforestation rates continue. We link deforestation risk area to carbon density values to estimate future carbon emissions. We quantified area deforested and carbon emissions between 2000 and 2009 as the basis of the scenario. Results We observed over 80,000 ha of forest cover lost from 2000-2009 (0.21% annual loss), representing over 39 million Mg CO2. The rate increased rapidly following the enhancement of the Inter Oceanic Highway in 2005. Accessibility and distance to previous deforestation were strong predictors of deforestation risk, while land use designation was less important. The model performed consistently well (AUC > 0.9), significantly better than random when we compared predicted deforestation risk to observed. If past deforestation rates continue, we estimate that 132,865 ha of forest could be lost by the year 2020, representing over 55 million Mg CO2. Conclusions Maxent provided a reliable method for identifying areas at high risk of deforestation and the major explanatory variables that could draw attention for mitigation action planning under REDD+. The tool is accessible, replicable and easy to use; all necessary for producing good risk estimates and adapt models after potential landscape change. We

  20. Identifying areas of deforestation risk for REDD+ using a species modeling tool.

    PubMed

    Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Naikoa; Riveros, Juan Carlos; Forrest, Jessica L

    2014-01-01

    To implement the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, countries need to prioritize areas to combat future deforestation CO2 emissions, identify the drivers of deforestation around which to develop mitigation actions, and quantify and value carbon for financial mechanisms. Each comes with its own methodological challenges, and existing approaches and tools to do so can be costly to implement or require considerable technical knowledge and skill. Here, we present an approach utilizing a machine learning technique known as Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) to identify areas at high deforestation risk in the study area in Madre de Dios, Peru under a business-as-usual scenario in which historic deforestation rates continue. We link deforestation risk area to carbon density values to estimate future carbon emissions. We quantified area deforested and carbon emissions between 2000 and 2009 as the basis of the scenario. We observed over 80,000 ha of forest cover lost from 2000-2009 (0.21% annual loss), representing over 39 million Mg CO2. The rate increased rapidly following the enhancement of the Inter Oceanic Highway in 2005. Accessibility and distance to previous deforestation were strong predictors of deforestation risk, while land use designation was less important. The model performed consistently well (AUC > 0.9), significantly better than random when we compared predicted deforestation risk to observed. If past deforestation rates continue, we estimate that 132,865 ha of forest could be lost by the year 2020, representing over 55 million Mg CO2. Maxent provided a reliable method for identifying areas at high risk of deforestation and the major explanatory variables that could draw attention for mitigation action planning under REDD+. The tool is accessible, replicable and easy to use; all necessary for producing good risk estimates and adapt models after potential landscape change. We propose this approach for developing

  1. Immune status does not predict high-risk HPV in anal condyloma.

    PubMed

    Lee, Janet T; Goldberg, Stanley M; Madoff, Robert D; Tawadros, Patrick S

    2016-03-01

    More than 90% of anal condyloma is attributed to nonhigh risk strains of human papillomavirus (HPV), thus patients with anal condyloma do not necessarily undergo HPV serotyping unless they are immunocompromised (IC). We hypothesized that IC patients with anal condyloma have a higher risk of high-risk HPV and dysplasia than nonimmunocompromised (NIC) patients. We performed a retrospective chart review of patients who underwent surgical treatment by a single surgeon for anal condyloma from 1/2000 to 1/2012. HPV serotyping was performed on all patient samples. We compared incidence of high-risk HPV and dysplasia in condyloma specimens from IC and NIC patients. High-risk HPV was identified in 14 specimens with serotypes 16, 18, 31, 33, 51, 52, and 67. Twenty-two cases (18.3%) had dysplasia. Invasive carcinoma was identified in one IC patient. The prevalence of dysplasia or high-risk HPV was not significantly different between IC and NIC groups. High-risk HPV was a significant independent predictor of dysplasia (odds ratio [OR] = 5.2; 95% CI = 1.24-21.62). Immune status, however, was not a significant predictor of high-risk HPV (OR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.16-5.12) nor dysplasia (OR = 0.27; 95% CI = 0.037-1.17). IC patients did not have a significantly higher prevalence or risk of high-risk HPV or dysplasia in our study. HPV typing of all condylomata, regardless of immune status, should be considered as it may help predict risk of neoplastic transformation or identify NIC patients with an increased risk of developing anal intraepithelial neoplasia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999–2012

    PubMed Central

    Rubikowska, Barbara; Bratkowski, Jakub; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Vanwambeke, Sophie O.

    2018-01-01

    During 1999–2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999–2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10–20 days, precipitation over the previous 20–30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping. PMID:29617333

  3. Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

    PubMed

    Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

    2011-07-01

    Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

  4. What’s the risk? Identifying potential human pathogens within grey-headed flying foxes faeces

    PubMed Central

    Galbraith, Penelope; Coutts, Scott; Prosser, Toby; Boyce, John; McCarthy, David T.

    2018-01-01

    Pteropus poliocephalus (grey-headed flying foxes) are recognised vectors for a range of potentially fatal human pathogens. However, to date research has primarily focused on viral disease carriage, overlooking bacterial pathogens, which also represent a significant human disease risk. The current study applied 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, community analysis and a multi-tiered database OTU picking approach to identify faecal-derived zoonotic bacteria within two colonies of P. poliocephalus from Victoria, Australia. Our data show that sequences associated with Enterobacteriaceae (62.8% ± 24.7%), Pasteurellaceae (19.9% ± 25.7%) and Moraxellaceae (9.4% ± 11.8%) dominate flying fox faeces. Further colony specific differences in bacterial faecal colonisation patterns were also identified. In total, 34 potential pathogens, representing 15 genera, were identified. However, species level definition was only possible for Clostridium perfringens, which likely represents a low infectious risk due to the low proportion observed within the faeces and high infectious dose required for transmission. In contrast, sequences associated with other pathogenic species clusters such as Haemophilus haemolyticus-H. influenzae and Salmonella bongori-S. enterica, were present at high proportions in the faeces, and due to their relatively low infectious doses and modes of transmissions, represent a greater potential human disease risk. These analyses of the microbial community composition of Pteropus poliocephalus have significantly advanced our understanding of the potential bacterial disease risk associated with flying foxes and should direct future epidemiological and quantitative microbial risk assessments to further define the health risks presented by these animals. PMID:29360880

  5. Referral outcomes of individuals identified at high risk of cardiovascular disease by community health workers in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa.

    PubMed

    Levitt, Naomi S; Puoane, Thandi; Denman, Catalina A; Abrahams-Gessel, Shafika; Surka, Sam; Mendoza, Carlos; Khanam, Masuma; Alam, Sartaj; Gaziano, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    We have found that community health workers (CHWs) with appropriate training are able to accurately identify people at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the community who would benefit from the introduction of preventative management, in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa. This paper examines the attendance pattern for those individuals who were so identified and referred to a health care facility for further assessment and management. Patient records from the health centres in each site were reviewed for data on diagnoses made and treatment commenced. Reasons for non-attendance were sought from participants who had not attended after being referred. Qualitative data were collected from study coordinators regarding their experiences in obtaining the records and conducting the record reviews. The perspectives of CHWs and community members, who were screened, were also obtained. Thirty-seven percent (96/263) of those referred attended follow-up: 36 of 52 (69%) were urgent and 60 of 211 (28.4%) were non-urgent referrals. A diagnosis of hypertension (HTN) was made in 69% of urgent referrals and 37% of non-urgent referrals with treatment instituted in all cases. Reasons for non-attendance included limited self-perception of risk, associated costs, health system obstacles, and lack of trust in CHWs to conduct CVD risk assessments and to refer community members into the health system. The existing barriers to referral in the health care systems negatively impact the gains to be had through screening by training CHWs in the use of a simple risk assessment tool. The new diagnoses of HTN and commencement on treatment in those that attended referrals underscores the value of having persons at the highest risk identified in the community setting and referred to a clinic for further evaluation and treatment.

  6. Referral outcomes of individuals identified at high risk of cardiovascular disease by community health workers in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Levitt, Naomi S.; Puoane, Thandi; Denman, Catalina A.; Abrahams-Gessel, Shafika; Surka, Sam; Mendoza, Carlos; Khanam, Masuma; Alam, Sartaj; Gaziano, Thomas A.

    2015-01-01

    Background We have found that community health workers (CHWs) with appropriate training are able to accurately identify people at high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the community who would benefit from the introduction of preventative management, in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Mexico, and South Africa. This paper examines the attendance pattern for those individuals who were so identified and referred to a health care facility for further assessment and management. Design Patient records from the health centres in each site were reviewed for data on diagnoses made and treatment commenced. Reasons for non-attendance were sought from participants who had not attended after being referred. Qualitative data were collected from study coordinators regarding their experiences in obtaining the records and conducting the record reviews. The perspectives of CHWs and community members, who were screened, were also obtained. Results Thirty-seven percent (96/263) of those referred attended follow-up: 36 of 52 (69%) were urgent and 60 of 211 (28.4%) were non-urgent referrals. A diagnosis of hypertension (HTN) was made in 69% of urgent referrals and 37% of non-urgent referrals with treatment instituted in all cases. Reasons for non-attendance included limited self-perception of risk, associated costs, health system obstacles, and lack of trust in CHWs to conduct CVD risk assessments and to refer community members into the health system. Conclusions The existing barriers to referral in the health care systems negatively impact the gains to be had through screening by training CHWs in the use of a simple risk assessment tool. The new diagnoses of HTN and commencement on treatment in those that attended referrals underscores the value of having persons at the highest risk identified in the community setting and referred to a clinic for further evaluation and treatment. PMID:25854780

  7. [A model list of high risk drugs].

    PubMed

    Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

    2013-12-01

    «High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. GWAS-identified schizophrenia risk SNPs at TSPAN18 are highly diverged between Europeans and East Asians.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Su, Bing

    2016-12-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified multiple schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants for samples of European and East Asian descent, but most of the identified susceptibility variants are population-specific to either Europeans or East Asians. This strong genetic heterogeneity suggests that differential population histories may play a role in SCZ susceptibility. Here, we explored this possibility by examining the allele frequency divergence of 136 previously reported genome-wide SCZ risk SNPs between European and East Asian populations. Our results showed that two SNPs (rs11038167 and rs11038172) at TSPAN18, reported as genome-wide significant SCZ risk variants in Han Chinese, were entirely monomorphic in Europeans, indicating a deep between-population divergence at this gene locus. To explore the evolutionary history of TSPAN18 in East Asians, we conducted population genetic analyses including multiple neutrality tests, the haplotype-based iHS and EHH tests, as well as haplotype bifurcation map and network constructions. We found that the protective allele of rs11038172 (G allele) had a long extended haplotype with much slower decay compared to the A allele. The star-like shape of the G-allele-carrying haplotypes indicates a recent enrichment in East Asians. Together, the evidences suggest that the protective allele of rs11038172 has experienced recent Darwinian positive selection in East Asians. These findings provide new insights that may help explain the strong genetic heterogeneity in SCZ risk and previous inconsistent association results for SCZ among both Europeans and East Asians. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Effect of risk ladder format on risk perception in high- and low-numerate individuals.

    PubMed

    Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael; Visschers, Vivianne

    2009-09-01

    Utilizing a random sample from the general population (N= 257), we examined the effect of the radon risk ladder on risk perception, as qualified by respondents' numeracy. The radon risk ladder provides comparative risk information about the radon equivalent of smoking risk. We compared a risk ladder providing smoking risk information with a risk ladder not providing this information. A 2 (numeracy; high, low) x 3 (risk level; high, medium, low) x 2 (smoking risk comparison: with/without) between subjects experimental design was used. A significant (p < 0.045) three-way interaction between format, risk level, and numeracy was identified. Participants with low numeracy skills, as well as participants with high numeracy skills, generally distinguished between low, medium, and high risk levels when the risk ladder with comparative smoking risk information was presented. When the risk ladder without the comparative information about the smoking risk was presented, low-numerate individuals differentiated between risk levels to a much lesser extent than high-numerate individuals did. These results provide empirical evidence that the risk ladder can be a useful tool in enabling people to interpret various risk levels. Additionally, these results allow us to conclude that providing comparative information within a risk ladder is particularly helpful to the understanding of different risk levels by people with low numeracy skills.

  10. An Overview. High Risk Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    This report provides an overview of efforts undertaken by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1990 to review and report on federal program areas its work identified as high risk because of vulnerabilities to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. It reviews the current status of efforts to address these concerns. The six categories of…

  11. A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

    PubMed

    Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p < .001). In the presence of three covariates (gender, race, and age), those classified as being at-risk by the index were 1.8 times more likely than those not classified as such to test positive for an STI (p < .001). Among individuals at risk for STIs, a three-item index predicted testing positive for one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

  12. The more from East-Asian, the better: risk prediction of colorectal cancer risk by GWAS-identified SNPs among Japanese.

    PubMed

    Abe, Makiko; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Nomura, Masatoshi; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Matsuo, Keitaro

    2017-12-01

    Little is known about the difference of genetic predisposition for CRC between ethnicities; however, many genetic traits common to colorectal cancer have been identified. This study investigated whether more SNPs identified in GWAS in East Asian population could improve the risk prediction of Japanese and explored possible application of genetic risk groups as an instrument of the risk communication. 558 Patients histologically verified colorectal cancer and 1116 first-visit outpatients were included for derivation study, and 547 cases and 547 controls were for replication study. Among each population, we evaluated prediction models for the risk of CRC that combined the genetic risk group based on SNPs from GWASs in European-population and a similarly developed model adding SNPs from GWASs in East Asian-population. We examined whether adding East Asian-specific SNPs would improve the discrimination. Six SNPs (rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10936599, rs16969681) from 23 SNPs by European-based GWAS and five SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279) among ten SNPs by Asian-based GWAS were selected in CRC risk prediction model. Compared with a 6-SNP-based model, an 11-SNP model including Asian GWAS-SNPs showed improved discrimination capacity in Receiver operator characteristic analysis. A model with 11 SNPs resulted in statistically significant improvement in both derivation (P = 0.0039) and replication studies (P = 0.0018) compared with six SNP model. We estimated cumulative risk of CRC by using genetic risk group based on 11 SNPs and found that the cumulative risk at age 80 is approximately 13% in the high-risk group while 6% in the low-risk group. We constructed a more efficient CRC risk prediction model with 11 SNPs including newly identified East Asian-based GWAS SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279). Risk grouping based on 11 SNPs depicted lifetime difference of CRC risk. This might be useful for

  13. Use of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify cardiovascular disease in hypertensive subjects.

    PubMed

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Leiva Sisnieguez, Carlos E; Leiva Sisnieguez, Betty C; March, Carlos E; Stavile, Rodolfo N; Balbín, Eduardo; Reaven, Gerald M

    2014-10-01

    This analysis evaluated the hypothesis that the plasma triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration ratio can help identify patients with essential hypertension who are insulin-resistant, with the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile associated with that defect. Data from a community-based study developed between 2003 and 2012 were used to compare CVD risk factors and outcome. Plasma TG/HDL-C cut-points of 2.5 (women) and 3.5 (men) subdivided normotensive (n = 574) and hypertensive (n = 373) subjects into "high" and "low" risk groups. Metabolic syndrome criteria (MetS) were also used to identify "high" and "low" risk groups. The baseline cardio-metabolic profile was significantly more adverse in 2003 in "high" risk subgroups, irrespective of BP classification or definition of risk (TG/HDL-C ratio vs. MetS criteria). Crude incidence of combined CVD events increased across risk groups, ranging from 1.9 in normotensive-low TG/HDL-C subjects to 19.9 in hypertensive-high TG/HDL-C ratio individuals (P for trends <.001). Adjusted hazard ratios for CVD events also increased with both hypertension and TG/HDL-C. Comparable findings were seen when CVD outcome was predicted by MetS criteria. The TG/HDL-C concentration ratio and the MetS criteria identify to a comparable degree hypertensive subjects who are at greatest cardio-metabolic risk and develop significantly more CVD.

  14. Rivers and flooded areas identified by medium-resolution remote sensing improve risk prediction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Xiao, Xiang-Ming; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-11-01

    Thailand experienced several epidemic waves of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 between 2004 and 2005. This study investigated the role of water in the landscape, which has not been previously assessed because of a lack of high-resolution information on the distribution of flooded land at the time of the epidemic. Nine Landsat 7 - Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes covering 174,610 km(2) were processed using k-means unsupervised classification to map the distribution of flooded areas as well as permanent lakes and reservoirs at the time of the main epidemic HPAI H5N1 wave of October 2004. These variables, together with other factors previously identified as significantly associated with risk, were entered into an autologistic regression model in order to quantify the gain in risk explanation over previously published models. We found that, in addition to other factors previously identified as associated with risk, the proportion of land covered by flooding along with expansion of rivers and streams, derived from an existing, sub-district level (administrative level no. 3) geographical information system database, was a highly significant risk factor in this 2004 HPAI epidemic. These results suggest that water-borne transmission could have partly contributed to the spread of HPAI H5N1 during the epidemic. Future work stemming from these results should involve studies where the actual distribution of small canals, rivers, ponds, rice paddy fields and farms are mapped and tested against farm-level data with respect to HPAI H5N1.

  15. Rivers and flooded areas identified by medium-resolution remote sensing improve risk prediction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Thanapongtharm, Weerapong; Van Boeckel, Thomas P.; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Xiao, Xiangming; Gilbert, Marius

    2016-01-01

    Thailand experienced several epidemic waves of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 between 2004 and 2005. This study investigated the role of water in the landscape, which has not been previously assessed because of a lack of high-resolution information on the distribution of flooded land at the time of the epidemic. Nine Landsat 7-Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes covering 174,610 km2 were processed using k-means unsupervised classification to map the distribution of flooded areas as well as permanent lakes and reservoirs at the time of the main epidemic HPAI H5N1 wave of October 2004. These variables, together with other factors previously identified as significantly associated with risk, were entered into an autologistic regression model in order to quantify the gain in risk explanation over previously published models. We found that, in addition to other factors previously identified as associated with risk, the proportion of land covered by flooding along with expansion of rivers and streams, derived from an existing, sub-district level (administrative level no. 3) geographical information system database, was a highly significant risk factor in this 2004 HPAI epidemic. These results suggest that water-borne transmission could have partly contributed to the spread of HPAI H5N1 during the epidemic. Future work stemming from these results should involve studies where the actual distribution of small canals, rivers, ponds, rice paddy fields and farms are mapped and tested against farm-level data with respect to HPAI H5N1. PMID:24258895

  16. Whole exome sequencing in 75 high-risk families with validation and replication in independent case-control studies identifies TANGO2, OR5H14, and CHAD as new prostate cancer susceptibility genes.

    PubMed

    Karyadi, Danielle M; Geybels, Milan S; Karlins, Eric; Decker, Brennan; McIntosh, Laura; Hutchinson, Amy; Kolb, Suzanne; McDonnell, Shannon K; Hicks, Belynda; Middha, Sumit; FitzGerald, Liesel M; DeRycke, Melissa S; Yeager, Meredith; Schaid, Daniel J; Chanock, Stephen J; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Berndt, Sonja I; Stanford, Janet L; Ostrander, Elaine A

    2017-01-03

    Prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility is defined by a continuum from rare, high-penetrance to common, low-penetrance alleles. Research to date has concentrated on identification of variants at the ends of that continuum. Taking an alternate approach, we focused on the important but elusive class of low-frequency, moderately penetrant variants by performing disease model-based variant filtering of whole exome sequence data from 75 hereditary PCa families. Analysis of 341 candidate risk variants identified nine variants significantly associated with increased PCa risk in a population-based, case-control study of 2,495 men. In an independent nested case-control study of 7,121 men, there was risk association evidence for TANGO2 p.Ser17Ter and the established HOXB13 p.Gly84Glu variant. Meta-analysis combining the case-control studies identified two additional variants suggestively associated with risk, OR5H14 p.Met59Val and CHAD p.Ala342Asp. The TANGO2 and HOXB13 variants co-occurred in cases more often than expected by chance and never in controls. Finally, TANGO2 p.Ser17Ter was associated with aggressive disease in both case-control studies separately. Our analyses identified three new PCa susceptibility alleles in the TANGO2, OR5H14 and CHAD genes that not only segregate in multiple high-risk families but are also of importance in altering disease risk for men from the general population. This is the first successful study to utilize sequencing in high-risk families for the express purpose of identifying low-frequency, moderately penetrant PCa risk mutations.

  17. Plasma triglyceride determination can identify increased risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes: a hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Armato, J; Ruby, R; Reaven, G

    2015-04-01

    To evaluate the ability of plasma triglyceride (TG) measurements to identify statin-treated persons at accentuated risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The experimental population consisted of nondiabetic, statin-treated patients (n = 469), classified as being at high risk for T2DM, subdivided on the basis of a plasma TG concentration of 1.7 mmol/L. Comparisons were made of demographic characteristics, concentrations of fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c, and hs-CRP, oral glucose tolerance tests, estimates of insulin action and secretion, and lipid/lipoprotein profiles. Despite similar fasting glucose and HbA1c concentrations, patients with elevated TG concentrations displayed markers of increased risk of T2DM (insulin resistance and compensatory hyperinsulinemia), more adverse lipid/lipoprotein profiles, and increased prevalence of abnormal hs-CRP values. These findings demonstrate that plasma TG concentrations ≥ 1.7 mmol/L identified a subset of individuals at enhanced risk of developing statin-induced diabetes within a population classified prior to statin treatment as being at high risk of T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

    2010-02-01

    A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

  19. High-risk multiple myeloma: a multifaceted entity, multiple therapeutic challenges.

    PubMed

    Muchtar, Eli; Magen, Hila; Gertz, Morie A

    2017-06-01

    The term high-risk multiple myeloma is aimed to identify a heterogeneous group of patients who are more likely to progress and die early of their disease. Therefore, recognition of these patients is crucial. With the increase in the number of treatment options, the outcome for high-risk patients has probably improved, although the true extent of this improvement remains unknown, due to both the heterogeneous components of high-risk disease and its under-representation in clinical trials. In this article, we review the definitions of high-risk disease, emphasizing the fact that no single definition can represent the entire high-risk population. In the second part, we review the treatment options available for the management of high-risk myeloma as well as our general approach for high-risk disease. In light of the poor prognosis associated with high-risk myeloma, even in the current era, new approaches for the management of this subset of patients are needed.

  20. Identifying nursing home residents at risk for falling.

    PubMed

    Kiely, D K; Kiel, D P; Burrows, A B; Lipsitz, L A

    1998-05-01

    To develop a fall risk model that can be used to identify prospectively nursing home residents at risk for falling. The secondary objective was to determine whether the nursing home environment independently influenced the development of falls. A prospective study involving 1 year of follow-up. Two hundred seventy-two nursing homes in the state of Washington. A total of 18,855 residents who had a baseline assessment in 1991 and a follow-up assessment within the subsequent year. Baseline Minimum Data Set items that could be potential risk factors for falling were considered as independent variables. The dependent variable was whether the resident fell as reported at the follow-up assessment. We estimated the extrinsic risk attributable to particular nursing home environments by calculating the annual fall rate in each nursing home and grouping them into tertiles of fall risk according to these rates. Factors associated independently with falling were fall history, wandering behavior, use of a cane or walker, deterioration of activities of daily living performance, age greater than 87 years, unsteady gait, transfer independence, wheelchair independence, and male gender. Nursing home residents with a fall history were more than three times as likely to fall during the follow-up period than residents without a fall history. Residents in homes with the highest tertile of fall rates were more than twice as likely to fall compared with residents of homes in the lowest tertile, independent of resident-specific risk factors. Fall history was identified as the strongest risk factor associated with subsequent falls and accounted for the vast majority of the predictive strength of the model. We recommend that fall history be used as an initial screener for determining eligibility for fall intervention efforts. Studies are needed to determine the facility characteristics that contribute to fall risk, independent of resident-specific risk factors.

  1. A Proactive Approach to High Risk Delirium Patients Undergoing Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Duque, Andres F; Post, Zachary D; Orozco, Fabio R; Lutz, Rex W; Ong, Alvin C

    2018-04-01

    Delirium is a common complication among elderly patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Its incidence has been reported from 4% to 53%. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services consider delirium following TJA a "never-event." The purpose of this study is to evaluate a simple perioperative protocol used to identify delirium risk patients and prevent its incidence following TJA. Our group developed a protocol to identify and prevent delirium in patients undergoing TJA. All patients were screened and scored in the preoperative assessment, on criteria such as age, history of forgetfulness, history of agitation or visual hallucinations, history of falls, history of postoperative confusion, and inability to perform higher brain functions. Patients were scored on performance in a simple mental examination. The patients were classified as low, medium, or high risk. Patients who were identified as high risk were enrolled in a delirium avoidance protocol that minimized narcotics and emphasized nursing involvement and fluids administration. Five of 7659 (0.065%) consecutive TJA patients from 2010 to 2015 developed delirium. A total of 422 patients were identified as high risk. All 5 patients who suffered delirium were within the high risk group. No low or medium risk patients suffered a delirium complication. Three (0.039%) patients suffered drug-induced delirium, 1 (0.013%) had delirium related to alcohol withdrawal, and 1 (0.013%) had delirium after a systemic infection. This protocol is effective in identifying patients at high delirium risk and diminishing the incidence of this complication by utilizing a simple screening tool and perioperative protocol. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Introduction of high risk pregnancy care in rural Cameroon: health service research approach.

    PubMed

    Leke, R J; Nasah, B T; Mtango, F D

    1988-05-01

    A 3-year study (1982-1985) in Cameroon showed that high-risk pregnancy identification and care could successfully be introduced in rural communities through inexpensive training and supervision of local nurses, particularly when motivation for use of antenatal clinics (ANCs) was provided by the local Community Women's Organization (CWO). 11 communities, all rural except Tsinga, were randomly allocated to Groups I (control) or II. A retrospective baseline survey of ANCs showed that high-risk pregnancy detection had been nonexistent. For both groups, nurses were given 2-week training courses on high-risk identification and family planning. The registers for recording prenatal consultations and deliveries were modified to include recording of risk factors. Special forms were created for reporting on each high-risk case thus identified. These forms proved more difficult for the nurses to complete than the registers. For Group II communities, CWO leaders were recruited to urge women to attend ANCs. 2548 cases of high-risk pregnancy (21.9% of pregnancies) were identified on the special forms, although the number of cases identified in clinic registers was consistently higher. Posttest attendance at ANCs was higher than pretest and significantly higher in areas where CWO motivation had been used. Major risk factors in the identified cases were grand multiparity, teenage pregnancy and previous complicated obstetrics history, although semiurban Tsinga had less grand multiparity and teenage pregnancy and more obesity, diabetes, hypertension and preclampsia. Only 23.4% of the identified cases delivered in the clinics, showing the need for more comprehensive maternal service programs. Since only 5% of the high-risk pregnancy population accepted modern contraceptives after delivery, research is needed on the determinants.

  3. Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

    2012-07-01

    We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

  4. Identifying patients with chronic hepatitis B at high risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cross-sectional study with pair-matched controls.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yi; Zhang, Jian; Cai, Hui; Shao, Jian-Guo; Zhang, You-Yi; Liu, Yan-Mei; Qin, Gang; Qin, Yan

    2015-03-19

    The presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased liver morbidity and mortality risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Aim of this study was to identify factors associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in CHB patients. A cross-sectional study with pair-matched controls was conducted in Nantong Third People's Hospital, Nantong University, China. From January 2008 to December 2012, a total of 1783 CHB patients were screened for study subjects, among whom 207 patients with T2DM were enrolled as cases and 207 sex- and age-matched non-DM patients as controls. Demographic, anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and laboratory data were obtained from each subject. In the univariate model, thirteen variables showed marked differences between the DM group and non-DM group. Patients with longer duration of CHB (≥15 years) and alcoholic steatosis showed the highest likelihood of T2DM (odds ratio = 5.39 and 4.95; 95% confidence intervals 2.76-10.53 and 1.65-14.91). In the multivariate adjusted analysis, three CHB-related factors, namely high viral load, long duration of illness, and presence of cirrhosis, contributed to substantially increase the likelihood of T2DM, in addition to the other five risk factors including family history of DM, low education level, elevated triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) levels, and presence of alcoholic steatosis. Our findings suggest that high viral load, long duration of CHB, presence of cirrhosis, alcoholic steatosis and several other factors may be potential risk factors for development of T2DM in CHB patients. It is of vital importance to monitor glucose in high-risk CHB patients and aggressively intervene on modifiable risk factors.

  5. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    PubMed

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  6. Physical activity barriers and motivators among high-risk employees.

    PubMed

    Paguntalan, John C; Gregoski, Mathew

    2016-11-22

    Worksite wellness programs offer an ideal setting to target high-risk sedentary workers to improve health status. Lack of physical activity is associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Despite the risks, the number of sedentary workers is increasing. This study examined the perceived barriers and motivators for physical activity among employees at high-risk for coronary heart disease. A purposive sample of 24 high-risk workers participating in a wellness program in rural South Carolina were enrolled in the study. Qualitative data was obtained through semi-structured face-to-face interviews. Grounded theory was used to analyze qualitative data, and identify overarching themes. Physical limitations due to pain and weakness, lack of motivation, and lack of time emerged as the main barriers to physical activity. Family relationships were reported as the strongest motivator along with social support and potential health benefits. Findings highlight the unique experience of high-risk workers with physical activity. The findingsunderscore the need to design and implement effective interventions specifically designed to meet the needs of high-risk employees.

  7. Risk Prioritization Tool to Identify the Public Health Risks of Wildlife Trade: The Case of Rodents from Latin America.

    PubMed

    Bueno, I; Smith, K M; Sampedro, F; Machalaba, C C; Karesh, W B; Travis, D A

    2016-06-01

    Wildlife trade (both formal and informal) is a potential driver of disease introduction and emergence. Legislative proposals aim to prevent these risks by banning wildlife imports, and creating 'white lists' of species that are cleared for importation. These approaches pose economic harm to the pet industry, and place substantial burden on importers and/or federal agencies to provide proof of low risk for importation of individual species. As a feasibility study, a risk prioritization tool was developed to rank the pathogens found in rodent species imported from Latin America into the United States with the highest risk of zoonotic consequence in the United States. Four formally traded species and 16 zoonotic pathogens were identified. Risk scores were based on the likelihood of pathogen release and human exposure, and the severity of the disease (consequences). Based on the methodology applied, three pathogens (Mycobacterium microti, Giardia spp. and Francisella tularensis) in one species (Cavia porcellus) were ranked as highest concern. The goal of this study was to present a methodological approach by which preliminary management resources can be allocated to the identified high-concern pathogen-species combinations when warranted. This tool can be expanded to other taxa and geographic locations to inform policy surrounding the wildlife trade. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  9. Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

    2015-01-01

    Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

  10. Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

    PubMed

    Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

    2015-10-01

    Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  11. Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

    PubMed Central

    Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors

  12. IDENTIFYING AREAS WITH A HIGH RISK OF HUMAN INFECTION WITH THE AVIAN INFLUENZA A (H7N9) VIRUS IN EAST ASIA

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Trevon; Havers, Fiona; Xu, Cuiling; Fang, Li-Qun; Cao, Wu-Chun; Shu, Yuelong; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Smith, Thomas B.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Objectives The rapid emergence, spread, and disease severity of avian influenza A(H7N9) in China has prompted concerns about a possible pandemic and regional spread in the coming months. The objective of this study was to predict the risk of future human infections with H7N9 in China and neighboring countries by assessing the association between H7N9 cases at sentinel hospitals and putative agricultural, climatic, and demographic risk factors. Methods This cross-sectional study used the locations of H7N9 cases and negative cases from China’s influenza-like illness surveillance network. After identifying H7N9 risk factors with logistic regression, we used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to construct predictive maps of H7N9 risk across Asia. Results Live bird market density was associated with human H7N9 infections reported in China from March-May 2013. Based on these cases, our model accurately predicted the virus’ spread into Guangxi autonomous region in February 2014. Outside China, we find there is a high risk that the virus will spread to northern Vietnam, due to the import of poultry from China. Conclusions Our risk map can focus efforts to improve surveillance in poultry and humans, which may facilitate early identification and treatment of human cases. PMID:24642206

  13. Analyzing treatment aggressiveness and identifying high-risk patients in diabetic foot ulcer return to care.

    PubMed

    Remington, Austin C; Hernandez-Boussard, Tina; Warstadt, Nicholus M; Finnegan, Micaela A; Shaffer, Robyn; Kwong, Jereen Z; Curtin, Catherine

    2016-07-01

    Rates of diabetes and its associated comorbidities have been increasing in the United States, with diabetic foot ulcer treatment representing a large cost to the patient and healthcare system. These ulcers often result in multiple hospital admissions. This study examined readmissions following inpatient care for a diabetic foot ulcer and identified modifiable factors associated with all-cause 30-day readmissions to the inpatient or emergency department (ED) setting. We hypothesized that patients undergoing aggressive treatment would have lower 30-day readmission rates. We identified patient discharge records containing International Classification of Disease ninth revision codes for both diabetes mellitus and distal foot ulcer in the State Inpatient and Emergency Department databases from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project in Florida and New York, 2011-2012. All-cause 30-day return to care visits (ED or inpatient) were analyzed. Patient demographics and treatment characteristics were evaluated using univariate and multivariable regression models. The cohort included 25,911 discharges, having a mean age of 63 and an average of 3.8 comorbidities. The overall rate of return to care was 30%, and 21% of subjects underwent a toe or midfoot amputation during their index stay. The most common diagnosis codes upon readmission were diabetes mellitus (19%) and infection (13%). Patients with a toe or midfoot amputation procedure were less likely to be readmitted within 30 days (odds ratio: 0.78; 95% confidence interval: 0.73, 0.84). Presence of comorbidities, black and Hispanic ethnicities, and Medicare and Medicaid payer status were also associated with higher odds of readmission following initial hospitalization (p < 0.05). The study suggests that there are many factors that affect readmission rates for diabetic foot ulcer patients. Understanding patients at high-risk for readmission can improve counseling and

  14. Personalized prevention in high risk individuals: Managing hormones and beyond.

    PubMed

    Evans, D Gareth; Howell, Sacha J; Howell, Anthony

    2018-06-01

    Increasing numbers of women are being identified at 'high-risk' of breast cancer, defined by The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as a 10-year risk of ≥8%. Classically women have been so identified through family history based risk algorithms or genetic testing of high-risk genes. Recent research has shown that assessment of mammographic density and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), when combined with established risk factors, trebles the number of women reaching the high risk threshold. The options for risk reduction in such women include endocrine chemoprevention with the selective estrogen receptor modulators tamoxifen and raloxifene or the aromatase inhibitors anastrozole or exemestane. NICE recommends offering anastrozole to postmenopausal women at high-risk of breast cancer as cost effectiveness analysis showed this to be cost saving to the National Health Service. Overall uptake to chemoprevention has been disappointingly low but this may improve with the improved efficacy of aromatase inhibitors, particularly the lack of toxicity to the endometrium and thrombogenic risks. Novel approaches to chemoprevention under investigation include lower dose and topical tamoxifen, denosumab, anti-progestins and metformin. Although oophorectomy is usually only recommended to women at increased risk of ovarian cancer it has been shown in numerous studies to reduce breast cancer risks in the general population and in those with mutations in BRCA1/2. However, recent evidence from studies that have confined analysis to true prospective follow up have cast doubt on the efficacy of oophorectomy to reduce breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers, at least in the short-term. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. High serum level of the soluble CD30 identifies Chinese kidney transplant recipients at high risk of unfavorable outcome.

    PubMed

    Iv, R; He, Q; Wang, H P; Jin, J; Chen, Y; Chen, J H

    2008-12-01

    We sought to investigate the relationship between serum level of sCD30 and recipient/graft survival rates, rejection types, as well as other prognostic factors among Chinese kidney transplant patients. We performed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays of serum sCD30 levels in duplicate among retrospective cohort of 707 renal transplant patients. The incidences of rejection increased in relation to the pretransplant sCD30 level. The reversal rates of rejection were 100%, 90.6%, and 78.6% for the low, intermediate, and high sCD30 groups. This observation suggested that high levels of sCD30 and pretransplant panel-reactive antibody (PRA)-positive patients are risk factors for acute rejection with odds ratios of 6.862 and 1.756. High sCD30 was an independent risk factor for functional graft survival. The 5-year graft survival rates were 99.39% +/- 6.1%, 93.11% +/- 1.93%, and 82.07% +/- 3.97% among the low, intermediate, and high sCD30 groups, while the 5-year recipient survival rates were 89.25% +/- 2.41%, 91.82% +/- 1.64%, and 88.85% +/- 2.36%, respectively. Increased sCD30 levels were observed among patients who were PRA-positive, cytomegalovirus antigens or antibodies positive, on long-term dialysis, and

  16. Identifying Risk Factors for Elder Falls in Geriatric Rehabilitation in Israel.

    PubMed

    Ben Natan, Merav; Heyman, Neomi; Ben Israel, Joshua

    2016-01-01

    To identify risk factors for elder falls in a geriatric rehabilitation center in Israel. Retrospective chart review study. Four hundred and twelve medical records of inpatients in geriatric rehabilitation were retrospectively analyzed to compare between elders who sustained falls and those who did not. Of elders hospitalized during this year, 14% sustained falls. Fallers included a high proportion of males, with little comorbidity, not obese, and cardiovascular patients. Falls occurred frequently during patients' first week at the facility, mostly during the daytime. The falls occurred frequently in patients' rooms, and a common scenario was a fall during transition. The research findings single out patients who are allegedly at a lower risk of falls than more complex patients. Caregivers in geriatric rehabilitation settings should pay attention to patients who are allegedly at a lower risk of falls than more complex patients, and to cardiovascular patients in particular. © 2014 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

  17. The Violence Risk Scale: Predictive Validity and Linking Changes in Risk with Violent Recidivism in a Sample of High-Risk Offenders with Psychopathic Traits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Kathy; Olver, Mark E.; Wong, Stephen C. P.

    2013-01-01

    The Violence Risk Scale (VRS) uses ratings of static and dynamic risk predictors to assess violence risk, identify targets for treatment, and assess changes in risk following treatment. The VRS was rated pre- and posttreatment on a sample of 150 males, mostly high-risk violent offenders many with psychopathic personality traits. These individuals…

  18. Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures.

    PubMed

    Tobias, J H; Hutchinson, A P; Hunt, L P; McCloskey, E V; Stone, M D; Martin, J C; Thompson, P W; Palferman, T G; Bhalla, A K

    2007-01-01

    Previous studies have been unable to identify risk factors for prevalent vertebral fractures (VF), which are suitable for use in selection strategies intended to target high-risk sub-groups for diagnostic assessment. However, these studies generally consisted of large epidemiology surveys based on questionnaires and were only able to evaluate a limited number of risk factors. Here, we investigated whether a stronger relationship exists with prevalent VF when conventional risk factors are combined with additional information obtained from detailed one-to-one assessment. Women aged 65-75 registered at four geographically distinct GP practices were invited to participate (n=1,518), of whom 540 attended for assessment as follows: a questionnaire asking about risk factors for osteoporosis such as height loss compared to age 25 and history of non-vertebral fracture (NVF), the get-up-and-go test, Margolis back pain score, measurement of wall-tragus and rib-pelvis distances, and BMD as measured by the distal forearm BMD. A lateral thoraco-lumbar spine X-ray was obtained, which was subsequently scored for the presence of significant vertebral deformities. Of the 509 subjects who underwent spinal radiographs, 37 (7.3%) were found to have one or more VF. Following logistic regression analysis, the four most predictive clinical risk factors for prevalent VF were: height loss (P=0.006), past NVF (P=0.004), history of back pain (P=0.075) and age (P=0.05). BMD was also significantly associated with prevalent VF (P=0.002), but its inclusion did not affect associations with other variables. Factors elicited from detailed one-to-one assessment were not related to the risk of one or more prevalent VFs. The area under ROC curves derived from these regressions, which suggested that models for prevalent VF had modest predictive accuracy, were as follows: 0.68 (BMD), 0.74 (four clinical risk factors above) and 0.78 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Analyses were repeated in relation to the

  19. Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

    PubMed Central

    DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

    2008-01-01

    Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

  20. Work Ability Index as tool to identify workers at risk of premature work exit.

    PubMed

    Roelen, Corné A M; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R; van der Klink, Jac J L; Groothoff, Johan W; van Rhenen, Willem

    2014-12-01

    To investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as tool for identifying workers at risk of premature work exit in terms of disability pension, unemployment, or early retirement. Prospective cohort study of 11,537 male construction workers (mean age 45.5 years), who completed the WAI at baseline and reported their work status (employed, unemployed, disability pension, or retired) after mean 2.3 years of follow-up. Associations between WAI scores and work status were investigated by multinomial logistic regression analysis. The ability of the WAI to discriminate between workers at high and low risk of premature work exit was analyzed by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve. 9,530 (83 %) construction workers had complete data for analysis. At follow-up, 336 (4 %) workers reported disability pension, 125 (1 %) unemployment, and 255 (3 %) retirement. WAI scores were prospectively associated with the risk of disability pension at follow-up, but not with the risk of unemployment and early retirement. The WAI showed fair discrimination to identify workers at risk of disability pension [AUC = 0.74; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77]. The discriminative ability decreased with age from AUC = 0.78 in workers aged 30-39 years to AUC = 0.69 in workers ≥50 years of age. Discrimination failed for unemployment (AUC = 0.51; 95 % CI 0.47-0.55) and early retirement (AUC = 0.58; 95 % CI 0.53-0.61). The WAI can be used to identify construction workers <50 years of age at increased risk of disability pension and invite them for preventive interventions.

  1. Relation between Kidney Length and Cardiovascular and Renal Risk in High-Risk Patients

    PubMed Central

    van der Sande, Nicolette G.C.; Visseren, Frank L.J.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M.; de Borst, Gert Jan; Leiner, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Background and objectives Kidney length is often measured during routine abdominal ultrasonography and may be of use to identify patients at high vascular and renal risk. We aimed to explore patient characteristics related to kidney length, from which reference values were derived, and evaluate the relationship between kidney length and the risk of cardiovascular events and ESRD in high-risk patients. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The study population consisted of 10,251 patients with clinical manifest arterial disease or vascular risk factors included in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) Study cohort between 1996 and 2014. Linear regression was used to explore patient characteristics of kidney length. The relationship between kidney length and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality), all-cause mortality, and ESRD was analyzed using Cox regression. Kidney length was analyzed in tertiles, using the second tertile as the reference category. Results Kidney length was strongly correlated with body surface area (2.04 mm; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.95 to 2.13 per 0.1 m2 increase) and eGFR (1.62 mm; 95% CI, 1.52 to 1.73 per 10 ml/min per 1.73 m2 increase). During the median follow-up of 6.3 years, 1317 patients experienced a cardiovascular event, including 711 myocardial infarctions, 369 strokes, and 735 vascular cause deaths. A total of 1462 patients died of any cause and 52 patients developed ESRD. Irrespective of eGFR, patients in the third tertile of kidney length (11.7–16.1 cm) were at higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.67) and cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.50). Patients in the first tertile of kidney length (7.8–10.8 cm) were not at higher risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Conclusions Large kidney length is related to higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in high-risk patients

  2. Relation between Kidney Length and Cardiovascular and Renal Risk in High-Risk Patients.

    PubMed

    van der Sande, Nicolette G C; Visseren, Frank L J; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M; de Borst, Gert Jan; Leiner, Tim; Blankestijn, Peter J

    2017-06-07

    Kidney length is often measured during routine abdominal ultrasonography and may be of use to identify patients at high vascular and renal risk. We aimed to explore patient characteristics related to kidney length, from which reference values were derived, and evaluate the relationship between kidney length and the risk of cardiovascular events and ESRD in high-risk patients. The study population consisted of 10,251 patients with clinical manifest arterial disease or vascular risk factors included in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) Study cohort between 1996 and 2014. Linear regression was used to explore patient characteristics of kidney length. The relationship between kidney length and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality), all-cause mortality, and ESRD was analyzed using Cox regression. Kidney length was analyzed in tertiles, using the second tertile as the reference category. Kidney length was strongly correlated with body surface area (2.04 mm; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.95 to 2.13 per 0.1 m 2 increase) and eGFR (1.62 mm; 95% CI, 1.52 to 1.73 per 10 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 increase). During the median follow-up of 6.3 years, 1317 patients experienced a cardiovascular event, including 711 myocardial infarctions, 369 strokes, and 735 vascular cause deaths. A total of 1462 patients died of any cause and 52 patients developed ESRD. Irrespective of eGFR, patients in the third tertile of kidney length (11.7-16.1 cm) were at higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.67) and cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.50). Patients in the first tertile of kidney length (7.8-10.8 cm) were not at higher risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Large kidney length is related to higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in high-risk patients, irrespective of eGFR. Kidney length may serve as a clinical marker to further identify patients at

  3. Very-high-risk localized prostate cancer: definition and outcomes.

    PubMed

    Sundi, D; Wang, V M; Pierorazio, P M; Han, M; Bivalacqua, T J; Ball, M W; Antonarakis, E S; Partin, A W; Schaeffer, E M; Ross, A E

    2014-03-01

    Outcomes in men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) can vary substantially-some will have excellent cancer-specific survival, whereas others will experience early metastasis even after aggressive local treatments. Current nomograms, which yield continuous risk probabilities, do not separate high-risk PCa into distinct sub-strata. Here, we derive a binary definition of very-high-risk (VHR) localized PCa to aid in risk stratification at diagnosis and selection of therapy. We queried the Johns Hopkins radical prostatectomy database to identify 753 men with NCCN high-risk localized PCa (Gleason sum 8-10, PSA >20 ng ml(-1), or clinical stage ≥T3). Twenty-eight alternate permutations of adverse grade, stage and cancer volume were compared by their hazard ratios for metastasis and cancer-specific mortality. VHR criteria with top-ranking hazard ratios were further evaluated by multivariable analyses and inclusion of a clinically meaningful proportion of the high-risk cohort. The VHR cohort was best defined by primary pattern 5 present on biopsy, or ≥5 cores with Gleason sum 8-10, or multiple NCCN high-risk features. These criteria encompassed 15.1% of the NCCN high-risk cohort. Compared with other high-risk men, VHR men were at significantly higher risk for metastasis (hazard ratio 2.75) and cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.44) (P<0.001 for both). Among high-risk men, VHR men also had significantly worse 10-year metastasis-free survival (37% vs 78%) and cancer-specific survival (62% vs 90%). Men who meet VHR criteria form a subgroup within the current NCCN high-risk classification who have particularly poor oncological outcomes. Use of these characteristics to distinguish VHR localized PCa may help in counseling and selection optimal candidates for multimodal treatments or clinical trials.

  4. Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

    PubMed

    Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

    2016-01-01

    Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

  5. Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

  6. Changes in Risk-Taking among High School Students, 1991-1997: Evidence from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boggess, Scott; Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; Porter, Laura

    Using nationally representative data from students in grades 9 to 12 from the national Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) of 1991, 1993, 1995, and 1997, this study examined changes in high school students' participation in health risk behaviors. Ten specific health risk behaviors were identified, each of which poses potential immediate and…

  7. [Labor monitoring in high-risk situations].

    PubMed

    Houfflin-Debarge, V; Closset, E; Deruelle, P

    2008-02-01

    Intrapartum asphyxia is increased in several situations such as intrauterine growth retardation, preterm labor, postdate pregnancy or maternal diabetes. In all these cases, fetal heart rate monitoring should be preferred to intermittent auscultation. Fetal scalp blood pH or lactates can be used to identify fetuses at risk of intrapartum asphyxia. However, fetal scalp blood sampling should not delay delivery in case of severe abnormal fetal heart rate as fetal asphyxia could occur rapidly in theses high-risk pregnancies. Data is insufficient to recommend fetal pulse oximetry or ECG analysis. Research should be undertaken to evaluate their performance in these situations.

  8. Suicide Risk Screening in Healthcare Settings: Identifying Males and Females at Risk

    PubMed Central

    King, Cheryl A.; Horwitz, Adam; Czyz, Ewa; Lindsay, Rebecca

    2017-01-01

    Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, accounting for more than 42,000 deaths in 2014. Although this tragedy cuts across groups defined by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic location, it is striking that nearly four times as many males as females die by suicide in the U.S. We describe the current regulations and recommendations for suicide risk screening in healthcare systems and also describe the aspirational goal of “Zero Suicide,” put forth by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention. We then provide information about suicide risk screening tools and steps to take when a patient screens positive for suicide risk. Given the substantially higher suicide rate among males than females, we argue that it is important to consider how we could optimize suicide risk screening strategies to identify males and females at risk. Further research is needed to accomplish this. It is recommended that we consider multi-factorial suicide risk screens that incorporate risk factors known to be particularly important for males as well computerized, adaptive screens that are tailored for the specific risk considerations of the individual patient, male or female. These strategies are not mutually exclusive. Finally, universal suicide risk screening in healthcare settings, especially primary care, specialty medical care, and emergency department settings, is recommended. PMID:28251427

  9. Developing interpretable models with optimized set reduction for identifying high risk software components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Briand, Lionel C.; Basili, Victor R.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

    1993-01-01

    Applying equal testing and verification effort to all parts of a software system is not very efficient, especially when resources are limited and scheduling is tight. Therefore, one needs to be able to differentiate low/high fault frequency components so that testing/verification effort can be concentrated where needed. Such a strategy is expected to detect more faults and thus improve the resulting reliability of the overall system. This paper presents the Optimized Set Reduction approach for constructing such models, intended to fulfill specific software engineering needs. Our approach to classification is to measure the software system and build multivariate stochastic models for predicting high risk system components. We present experimental results obtained by classifying Ada components into two classes: is or is not likely to generate faults during system and acceptance test. Also, we evaluate the accuracy of the model and the insights it provides into the error making process.

  10. Self-Identified Sexual Orientation and Sexual Risk Behavior Among HIV-Infected Latino Males.

    PubMed

    Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Szlachta, Alaina

    2016-01-01

    The HIV testing, disclosure, and sexual practices of ethnic minority men suggest that addressing sexual risk behavior and the underlying reasons for not receiving HIV testing or disclosing HIV-infection status-unique to differing populations-would improve public health interventions. Descriptive behaviors and underlying perspectives reported in our study suggest that public health interventions for HIV-infected Latino men who self-identify as heterosexual should explicitly identify substance use, needle sharing, and unprotected sex to current partners as behaviors placing both oneself and one's partners at high risk for contracting HIV. However, diversity of sexual behavior among gay, straight, and bisexual HIV-infected Latino men in our study ultimately suggested that clinicians should not rely on simplistic conceptions of sexuality in assessment of self-care needs. Care in presentation and discussion of self-identified sexual preference and sexual behavior is indicated, as these do not determine actual sexual orientation or behavior and vice versa. Copyright © 2016 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Informed Consent in Implantable BCI Research: Identifying Risks and Exploring Meaning.

    PubMed

    Klein, Eran

    2016-10-01

    Implantable brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is an expanding area of engineering research now moving into clinical application. Ensuring meaningful informed consent in implantable BCI research is an ethical imperative. The emerging and rapidly evolving nature of implantable BCI research makes identification of risks, a critical component of informed consent, a challenge. In this paper, 6 core risk domains relevant to implantable BCI research are identified-short and long term safety, cognitive and communicative impairment, inappropriate expectations, involuntariness, affective impairment, and privacy and security. Work in deep brain stimulation provides a useful starting point for understanding this core set of risks in implantable BCI. Three further risk domains-risks pertaining to identity, agency, and stigma-are identified. These risks are not typically part of formalized consent processes. It is important as informed consent practices are further developed for implantable BCI research that attention be paid not just to disclosing core research risks but exploring the meaning of BCI research with potential participants.

  12. Exome Sequencing Identifies Potential Risk Variants for Mendelian Disorders at High Prevalence in Qatar

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L.; Fakhro, Khalid; Hackett, Neil R.; Salit, Jacqueline; Fuller, Jennifer; Agosto-Perez, Francisco; Gharbiah, Maey; Malek, Joel A.; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Badii, Ramin; Al-Marri, Ajayeb Al-Nabet; Chouchane, Lotfi; Stadler, Dora J.; Hunter-Zinck, Haley; Mezey, Jason G.; Crystal, Ronald G.

    2013-01-01

    Exome sequencing of families of related individuals has been highly successful in identifying genetic polymorphisms responsible for Mendelian disorders. Here, we demonstrate the value of the reverse approach, where we use exome sequencing of a sample of unrelated individuals to analyze allele frequencies of known causal mutations for Mendelian diseases. We sequenced the exomes of 100 individuals representing the three major genetic subgroups of the Qatari population (Q1 Bedouin, Q2 Persian-South Asian, Q3 African) and identified 37 variants in 33 genes with effects on 36 clinically significant Mendelian diseases. These include variants not present in 1000 Genomes and variants at high frequency when compared to 1000 Genomes populations. Several of these Mendelian variants were only segregating in one Qatari subpopulation, where the observed subpopulation specificity trends were confirmed in an independent population of 386 Qataris. Pre-marital genetic screening in Qatar tests for only 4 out of the 37, such that this study provides a set of Mendelian disease variants with potential impact on the epidemiological profile of the population that could be incorporated into the testing program if further experimental and clinical characterization confirms high penetrance. PMID:24123366

  13. Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

    PubMed

    Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

    2014-03-01

    (1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Narang, Amol K.; Gergis, Carol; Robertson, Scott P.

    Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimenmore » in these patients. Methods and Materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men. Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05). Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet

  15. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). Methods A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. Results The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Conclusions Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk

  16. Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups.

    PubMed

    Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

    2012-03-14

    Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified

  17. Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

    PubMed Central

    Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

    2015-01-01

    Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

  18. Can we identify patients at risk of life-threatening allergic reactions to food?

    PubMed

    Turner, P J; Baumert, J L; Beyer, K; Boyle, R J; Chan, C-H; Clark, A T; Crevel, R W R; DunnGalvin, A; Fernández-Rivas, M; Gowland, M H; Grabenhenrich, L; Hardy, S; Houben, G F; O'B Hourihane, J; Muraro, A; Poulsen, L K; Pyrz, K; Remington, B C; Schnadt, S; van Ree, R; Venter, C; Worm, M; Mills, E N C; Roberts, G; Ballmer-Weber, B K

    2016-09-01

    Anaphylaxis has been defined as a 'severe, life-threatening generalized or systemic hypersensitivity reaction'. However, data indicate that the vast majority of food-triggered anaphylactic reactions are not life-threatening. Nonetheless, severe life-threatening reactions do occur and are unpredictable. We discuss the concepts surrounding perceptions of severe, life-threatening allergic reactions to food by different stakeholders, with particular reference to the inclusion of clinical severity as a factor in allergy and allergen risk management. We review the evidence regarding factors that might be used to identify those at most risk of severe allergic reactions to food, and the consequences of misinformation in this regard. For example, a significant proportion of food-allergic children also have asthma, yet almost none will experience a fatal food-allergic reaction; asthma is not, in itself, a strong predictor for fatal anaphylaxis. The relationship between dose of allergen exposure and symptom severity is unclear. While dose appears to be a risk factor in at least a subgroup of patients, studies report that individuals with prior anaphylaxis do not have a lower eliciting dose than those reporting previous mild reactions. It is therefore important to consider severity and sensitivity as separate factors, as a highly sensitive individual will not necessarily experience severe symptoms during an allergic reaction. We identify the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to improve our ability to better identify those most at risk of severe food-induced allergic reactions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause.

    PubMed

    Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

    2013-08-01

    We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193) and a retrospective validation (n = 567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high (≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95% CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95% CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

    PubMed Central

    Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

    2013-01-01

    Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

  1. Use of a risk scoring tool to identify higher-risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for an antiretroviral-based HIV-1 prevention intervention.

    PubMed

    Irungu, Elizabeth M; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly; Ngure, Kenneth; Katabira, Elly; Bulya, Nulu; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Odoyo, Josephine; Asiimwe, Stephen; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

    2016-10-17

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduce HIV-1 transmission within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. Prioritizing couples at highest HIV-1 transmission risk for ART and PrEP would maximize impact and minimize costs. The Partners Demonstration Project is an open-label, delivery study of integrated PrEP and ART for HIV-1 prevention among high risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda. We evaluated the feasibility of using a validated risk score that weighs a combination of easily measurable factors (age, children, marital status, male circumcision status, condom use, plasma HIV-1 levels) to identify couples at highest risk for HIV-1 transmission for enrollment. Couples scoring ≥5 met the risk score eligibility criteria. We screened 1694 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples and enrolled 1013. Of the screened couples, 1331 (78.6 %) scored ≥5 (with an expected incidence >3 % per year) and 76 % of these entered the study. The median age of the HIV-1 uninfected partner was 29 years [IQR 26, 36] and 20 % were <25 years of age. The HIV-1 uninfected partner was male in 67 % of partnerships, 33 % of whom were uncircumcised, 57 % of couples had no children, and 65 % reported unprotected sex in the month prior to enrollment. Among HIV-1 infected partners, 41 % had plasma viral load >50,000 copies/ml. A risk scoring tool identified HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for a demonstration project of PrEP and ART with high HIV-1 risk. The tool may be feasible for research and public health settings to maximize efficiency and minimize HIV-1 prevention costs.

  2. Guaranteed Student Loans: GAO High Risk Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Comptroller General of the U.S., Washington, DC.

    As part of a larger program to identify and analyze federal programs at high risk for waste, fraud, abuse and mismanagement, this publication presents an evaluation of the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP), formerly the Guaranteed Student Loan Program. The analysis argues that the program has not been successful in protecting the…

  3. High-Risk Prescribing to Medicaid Enrollees Receiving Opioid Analgesics: Individual- and County-Level Factors.

    PubMed

    Heins, Sara E; Sorbero, Mark J; Jones, Christopher M; Dick, Andrew W; Stein, Bradley D

    2018-01-05

    Prescription opioid overdoses have increased dramatically in recent years, with the highest rates among Medicaid enrollees. High-risk prescribing includes practices associated with overdoses and a range of additional opioid-related problems. To identify individual- and county-level factors associated with high-risk prescribing among Medicaid enrollees receiving opioids. In a four-states, cross-sectional claims data study, Medicaid enrollees 18-64 years old with a new opioid analgesic treatment episode 2007-2009 were identified. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with high-risk prescribing, defined as high-dose opioid prescribing (morphine equivalent daily dose ≥100 mg for >6 days), opioid overlap, opioid-benzodiazepine overlap. High-risk prescribing occurred in 39.4% of episodes. Older age, rural county of residence, white race, and major depression diagnosis were associated with higher rates of all types of high-risk prescribing. Individuals with prior opioid, alcohol, and hypnotic/sedative use disorder diagnoses had lower odds of high-dose opioid prescribing but higher odds of opioid overlap and opioid-benzodiazepine overlap than individuals without such disorders. High-dose opioid prescribing in Massachusetts was less common than in California, Illinois, and New York, whereas the rate of benzodiazepine overlap in Massachusetts was more common than in other states. Conclusions/Importance: High-risk prescribing was common and associated with several important demographic, clinical, and community factors. Findings can be used to inform targeted interventions designed to reduce such prescribing, and given state variation observed, further research is needed to better understand the effects of state policies on high-risk prescribing.

  4. High-risk behaviour in hypomanic states.

    PubMed

    Fletcher, Kathryn; Parker, Gordon; Paterson, Amelia; Synnott, Howe

    2013-08-15

    Risk-taking behaviours during hypomanic states are recognised, however the high-risk nature of some behaviours-including the potential for harm to both the individual and others-has not been detailed in the research literature. The current study examines risk-taking behaviours and their consequences (including their potential for impairment) in those with a bipolar II condition. Participants were recruited from the Sydney-based Black Dog Institute Depression Clinic. Diagnostic assignment of bipolar II disorder was based on clinician judgement and formal DSM-IV criteria. Participants completed a series of detailed questions assessing previous risk-taking behaviours during hypomanic states. The sample comprised a total of 93 participants. Risk-taking behaviours during hypomania included spending significant amounts of money, excessive alcohol or drug use, dangerous driving and endangering sexual activities. Key consequences included interpersonal conflict, substantial financial burden and feelings of guilt, shame and remorse. Despite recognition of the risks and consequences associated with hypomanic behaviours, less than one-fifth of participants agreed that hypomania should be treated because of the associated risks. Study limitations included a cross-sectional design, reliance on self-report information, lack of controlling for current mood state, and comprised a tertiary referral sample that may be weighted to more severe cases. Findings may therefore not be generalisable and require replication. Risk-taking behaviours during hypomania are common, and often linked with serious consequences. Whilst hypomania is often enjoyed and romanticised by patients-leading to ambivalence around treatment of such states-careful consideration of the impact of risk-taking behaviour is necessary, while the study raises the question as to what is 'impairment' in hypomania. Findings should advance clinical management by identifying those high-risk behaviours that would benefit from

  5. Overexpression of ANXA1 in penile carcinomas positive for high-risk HPVs.

    PubMed

    Calmon, Marilia Freitas; Mota, Mânlio Tasso de Oliveira; Babeto, Érica; Candido, Natália Maria; Girol, Ana Paula; Mendiburu, Carlos Fabian; Bonilha, Jane Lopes; Silvestre, Rodrigo Vellasco Duarte; Rosa, Bruno Miziara; Thomé, Jorge Alberto; Medeiros, Gustavo Hernandez Américo; Soares, Fernando Augusto; Guimarães, Gustavo Cardoso; de Arruda, José Germano Ferraz; Oliani, Sonia Maria; Villa, Luisa Lina; Vassallo, José; Rahal, Paula

    2013-01-01

    The incidence of penile cancer varies between populations but is rare in developed nations. Penile cancer is associated with a number of established risk factors and associated diseases including phimosis with chronic inflammation, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, poor hygiene and smoking. The objective of this study was to identify genes related to this type of cancer. The detection of HPV was analyzed in 47 penile squamous cell carcinoma samples. HPV DNA was detected in 48.9% of penile squamous cell carcinoma cases. High-risk HPV were present in 42.5% of cases and low-risk HPV were detected in 10.6% of penile squamous cell carcinomas. The RaSH approach identified differential expression of Annexin A1 (ANXA1), p16, RPL6, PBEF1 and KIAA1033 in high-risk HPV positive penile carcinoma; ANXA1 and p16 were overexpressed in penile squamous cells positive for high-risk HPVs compared to normal penile samples by qPCR. ANXA1 and p16 proteins were significantly more expressed in the cells from high-risk HPV-positive penile carcinoma as compared to HPV-negative tumors (p<0.0001) independently of the subtype of the carcinoma. Overexpression of ANXA1 might be mediated by HPV E6 in penile squamous cell carcinoma of patients with high-risk HPVs, suggesting that this gene plays an important role in penile cancer.

  6. Overexpression of ANXA1 in Penile Carcinomas Positive for High-Risk HPVs

    PubMed Central

    Calmon, Marilia Freitas; Mota, Mânlio Tasso de Oliveira; Babeto, Érica; Candido, Natália Maria; Girol, Ana Paula; Mendiburu, Carlos Fabian; Bonilha, Jane Lopes; Silvestre, Rodrigo Vellasco Duarte; Rosa, Bruno Miziara; Thomé, Jorge Alberto; Medeiros, Gustavo Hernandez Américo; Soares, Fernando Augusto; Guimarães, Gustavo Cardoso; de Arruda, José Germano Ferraz; Oliani, Sonia Maria; Villa, Luisa Lina; Vassallo, José; Rahal, Paula

    2013-01-01

    The incidence of penile cancer varies between populations but is rare in developed nations. Penile cancer is associated with a number of established risk factors and associated diseases including phimosis with chronic inflammation, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, poor hygiene and smoking. The objective of this study was to identify genes related to this type of cancer. The detection of HPV was analyzed in 47 penile squamous cell carcinoma samples. HPV DNA was detected in 48.9% of penile squamous cell carcinoma cases. High-risk HPV were present in 42.5% of cases and low-risk HPV were detected in 10.6% of penile squamous cell carcinomas. The RaSH approach identified differential expression of Annexin A1 (ANXA1), p16, RPL6, PBEF1 and KIAA1033 in high-risk HPV positive penile carcinoma; ANXA1 and p16 were overexpressed in penile squamous cells positive for high-risk HPVs compared to normal penile samples by qPCR. ANXA1 and p16 proteins were significantly more expressed in the cells from high-risk HPV-positive penile carcinoma as compared to HPV-negative tumors (p<0.0001) independently of the subtype of the carcinoma. Overexpression of ANXA1 might be mediated by HPV E6 in penile squamous cell carcinoma of patients with high-risk HPVs, suggesting that this gene plays an important role in penile cancer. PMID:23341933

  7. The Nursing Home Pneumonia Risk Index: A Simple, Valid MDS-Based Method of Identifying 6-Month Risk for Pneumonia and Mortality.

    PubMed

    Sloane, Philip D; Zimmerman, Sheryl; Ward, Kimberly; Reed, David; Preisser, John S; Weber, David J

    2017-09-01

    Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of hospitalization and death for nursing home (NH) residents; however, diagnosis is often delayed because classic signs of infection are not present. We sought to identify NH residents at high risk for pneumonia, to identify persons to target for more intensive surveillance and preventive measures. Based on a literature review, we identified key risk factors for pneumonia and compiled them for use as prediction tool, limiting risk factors to those available on the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Next, we tested the tool's ability to predict 6-month pneumonia incidence and mortality rates in a sample of 674 residents from 7 NHs, evaluating it both as a continuous and a dichotomous variable, and applying both logistic regression and survival analysis to calculate estimates. NH Pneumonia Risk Index scores ranged from -1 to 6, with a mean of 2.1, a median of 2, and a mode of 2. For the outcome of pneumonia, a 1-point increase in the index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.26 (P = .038) or a hazard ratio of 1.24 (P = .037); using it as a dichotomous variable (≤2 vs ≥3), the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 1.78 (P = .045) and a hazard ratio of 1.82 (P = .025). For the outcome of mortality, a 1-point increase in the NH Pneumonia Risk Index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.58 (P = .002) and a hazard ratio of 1.45 (P = .013); using the index as a dichotomous variable, the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 3.71 (P < .001) and a hazard ratio of 3.29 (P = .001). The NH Pneumonia Risk Index can be used by NH staff to identify residents for whom to apply especially intensive preventive measures and surveillance. Because of its strong association with mortality, the index may also be valuable in care planning and discussion of advance directives. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Identifying Home Care Clinicians’ Information Needs for Managing Fall Risks

    PubMed Central

    Alhuwail, Dari

    2016-01-01

    Summary Objectives To help manage the risk of falls in home care, this study aimed to (i) identify home care clinicians’ information needs and how they manage missing or inaccurate data, (ii) identify problems that impact effectiveness and efficiency associated with retaining, exchanging, or processing information about fall risks in existing workflows and currently adopted health information technology (IT) solutions, and (iii) offer informatics-based recommendations to improve fall risk management interventions. Methods A case study was carried out in a single not-for-profit suburban Medicare-certified home health agency with three branches. Qualitative data were collected over a six month period through observations, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. The Framework method was used for analysis. Maximum variation sampling was adopted to recruit a diverse sample of clinicians. Results Overall, the information needs for fall risk management were categorized into physiological, care delivery, educational, social, environmental, and administrative domains. Examples include a brief fall-related patient history, weight-bearing status, medications that affect balance, availability of caregivers at home, and the influence of patients’ cultures on fall management interventions. The unavailability and inaccuracy of critical information related to fall risks can delay necessary therapeutic services aimed at reducing patients’ risk for falling and thereby jeopardizing their safety. Currently adopted IT solutions did not adequately accommodate data related to fall risk management. Conclusion The results highlight the essential information for fall risk management in home care. Home care workflows and health IT solutions must effectively and efficiently retain, exchange, and process information necessary for fall risk management. Interoperability and integration of the various health IT solutions to make data sharing accessible to all clinicians is critical

  9. Fine-Mapping of Common Genetic Variants Associated with Colorectal Tumor Risk Identified Potential Functional Variants

    PubMed Central

    Gala, Manish; Abecasis, Goncalo; Bezieau, Stephane; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Caan, Bette J.; Carlson, Christopher S.; Casey, Graham; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Conti, David V.; Curtis, Keith R.; Duggan, David; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Hayes, Richard B.; Hoffmeister, Michael; Hopper, John L.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Küry, Sébastien; Le Marchand, Loic; Leal, Suzanne M.; Newcomb, Polly A.; Nickerson, Deborah A.; Potter, John D.; Schoen, Robert E.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Slattery, Martha L.; Hsu, Li; Chan, Andrew T.; White, Emily; Berndt, Sonja I.; Peters, Ulrike

    2016-01-01

    Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with colorectal cancer risk. These SNPs may tag correlated variants with biological importance. Fine-mapping around GWAS loci can facilitate detection of functional candidates and additional independent risk variants. We analyzed 11,900 cases and 14,311 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colon Cancer Family Registry. To fine-map genomic regions containing all known common risk variants, we imputed high-density genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project. We tested single-variant associations with colorectal tumor risk for all variants spanning genomic regions 250-kb upstream or downstream of 31 GWAS-identified SNPs (index SNPs). We queried the University of California, Santa Cruz Genome Browser to examine evidence for biological function. Index SNPs did not show the strongest association signals with colorectal tumor risk in their respective genomic regions. Bioinformatics analysis of SNPs showing smaller P-values in each region revealed 21 functional candidates in 12 loci (5q31.1, 8q24, 11q13.4, 11q23, 12p13.32, 12q24.21, 14q22.2, 15q13, 18q21, 19q13.1, 20p12.3, and 20q13.33). We did not observe evidence of additional independent association signals in GWAS-identified regions. Our results support the utility of integrating data from comprehensive fine-mapping with expanding publicly available genomic databases to help clarify GWAS associations and identify functional candidates that warrant more onerous laboratory follow-up. Such efforts may aid the eventual discovery of disease-causing variant(s). PMID:27379672

  10. High-depth, high-accuracy microsatellite genotyping enables precision lung cancer risk classification

    PubMed Central

    Velmurugan, K R; Varghese, R T; Fonville, N C; Garner, H R

    2017-01-01

    There remains a large discrepancy between the known genetic contributions to cancer and that which can be explained by genomic variants, both inherited and somatic. Recently, understudied repetitive DNA regions called microsatellites have been identified as genetic risk markers for a number of diseases including various cancers (breast, ovarian and brain). In this study, we demonstrate an integrated process for identifying and further evaluating microsatellite-based risk markers for lung cancer using data from the cancer genome atlas and the 1000 genomes project. Comparing whole-exome germline sequencing data from 488 TCGA lung cancer samples to germline exome data from 390 control samples from the 1000 genomes project, we identified 119 potentially informative microsatellite loci. These loci were found to be able to distinguish between cancer and control samples with sensitivity and specificity ratios over 0.8. Then these loci, supplemented with additional loci from other cancers and controls, were evaluated using a target enrichment kit and sample-multiplexed nextgen sequencing. Thirteen of the 119 risk markers were found to be informative in a well powered study (>0.99 for a 0.95 confidence interval) using high-depth (579x±315) nextgen sequencing of 30 lung cancer and 89 control samples, resulting in sensitivity and specificity ratios of 0.90 and 0.94, respectively. When 8 loci harvested from the bioinformatic analysis of other cancers are added to the classifier, then the sensitivity and specificity rise to 0.93 and 0.97, respectively. Analysis of the genes harboring these loci revealed two genes (ARID1B and REL) and two significantly enriched pathways (chromatin organization and cellular stress response) suggesting that the process of lung carcinogenesis is linked to chromatin remodeling, inflammation, and tumor microenvironment restructuring. We illustrate that high-depth sequencing enables a high-precision microsatellite-based risk classifier analysis

  11. High-depth, high-accuracy microsatellite genotyping enables precision lung cancer risk classification.

    PubMed

    Velmurugan, K R; Varghese, R T; Fonville, N C; Garner, H R

    2017-11-16

    There remains a large discrepancy between the known genetic contributions to cancer and that which can be explained by genomic variants, both inherited and somatic. Recently, understudied repetitive DNA regions called microsatellites have been identified as genetic risk markers for a number of diseases including various cancers (breast, ovarian and brain). In this study, we demonstrate an integrated process for identifying and further evaluating microsatellite-based risk markers for lung cancer using data from the cancer genome atlas and the 1000 genomes project. Comparing whole-exome germline sequencing data from 488 TCGA lung cancer samples to germline exome data from 390 control samples from the 1000 genomes project, we identified 119 potentially informative microsatellite loci. These loci were found to be able to distinguish between cancer and control samples with sensitivity and specificity ratios over 0.8. Then these loci, supplemented with additional loci from other cancers and controls, were evaluated using a target enrichment kit and sample-multiplexed nextgen sequencing. Thirteen of the 119 risk markers were found to be informative in a well powered study (>0.99 for a 0.95 confidence interval) using high-depth (579x±315) nextgen sequencing of 30 lung cancer and 89 control samples, resulting in sensitivity and specificity ratios of 0.90 and 0.94, respectively. When 8 loci harvested from the bioinformatic analysis of other cancers are added to the classifier, then the sensitivity and specificity rise to 0.93 and 0.97, respectively. Analysis of the genes harboring these loci revealed two genes (ARID1B and REL) and two significantly enriched pathways (chromatin organization and cellular stress response) suggesting that the process of lung carcinogenesis is linked to chromatin remodeling, inflammation, and tumor microenvironment restructuring. We illustrate that high-depth sequencing enables a high-precision microsatellite-based risk classifier analysis

  12. Feasibility of Screening Adolescents for Suicide Risk in “Real-World” High School Settings

    PubMed Central

    Hallfors, Denise; Brodish, Paul H.; Khatapoush, Shereen; Sanchez, Victoria; Cho, Hyunsan; Steckler, Allan

    2006-01-01

    Objectives. We evaluated the feasibility of a population-based approach to preventing adolescent suicide. Methods. A total of 1323 students in 10 high schools completed the Suicide Risk Screen. Screening results, student follow-up, staff feedback, and school responses were assessed. Results. Overall, 29% of the participants were rated as at risk of suicide. As a result of this overwhelming percentage, school staffs chose to discontinue the screening after 2 semesters. In further analyses, about half of the students identified were deemed at high risk on the basis of high levels of depression, suicidal ideation, or suicidal behavior. Priority rankings evidenced good construct validity on correlates such as drug use, hopelessness, and perceived family support. Conclusions. A simpler, more specific screening instrument than the Suicide Risk Screen would identify approximately 11% of urban high school youths for assessment, offering high school officials an important opportunity to identify young people at the greatest levels of need and to target scarce health resources. Our experiences from this study show that lack of feasibility testing greatly contributes to the gap between science and practice. PMID:16380568

  13. Identifying child abuse and neglect risk among postpartum women in Japan using the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist.

    PubMed

    Baba, Kaori; Kataoka, Yaeko

    2014-11-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the rate of women who are high-risk for child abuse and neglect in a perinatal unit in Japan, and to identify the factors associated with risk level. To assess the potential risk for child abuse and neglect the Japanese version of the Kempe Family Stress Checklist (FSC-J) was used to guide interviews with postpartum women. FSC-J uses a three-point scale to score 10 categories, categorizing responses as "no risk=0", "risk=5", and "high risk=10". The range of FSC-J is 0-100. Using an established cutoff point of 25, subjects were divided into high and low risk groups. For both groups, relationships between factors were analyzed. Of the 174 subjects who agreed to participate, 12 (6.9%) scored high-risk, and 162 (93.1%) scored low-risk. Adjusted odds ratio identified three associated factors as important for predicting risk level: past mental illness (OR=341.1), previous experience of intimate partner violence (OR=68.0), and having a partner who was unemployed (OR=14.5). Although this study was on a small sample of women in one hospital in Japan and a larger population would make this study much stronger, these results suggest that some 6.9% of postpartum women in Japan may be at high-risk for child abuse and neglect. It is critical, therefore, to develop a system for screening, intervention, and referral for such women and their children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. The Impacts of Intrusive Advising on the Persistence of First-Year Science, Technology, and Mathematics Students Identified Using a Risk Prediction Instrument

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Matthew A.

    2013-01-01

    Set in a large, urban, public university, this study explores the use of an institutionally specific risk instrument developed to identify students who had a high risk of attrition and the effectiveness of subsequent interventions deployed through advising. Though implemented throughout the institution, this study identified control and treatment…

  15. Incidence of neonatal hypoglycemia in babies identified as at risk.

    PubMed

    Harris, Deborah L; Weston, Philip J; Harding, Jane E

    2012-11-01

    Routine blood glucose screening is recommended for babies at risk of neonatal hypoglycemia. However, the incidence of hypoglycemia in those screened is not well described. We sought to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia in babies identified as being at risk, and also to determine differences in incidence between at risk groups. Infants (n = 514) were recruited who were born in a tertiary hospital, ≥35 weeks gestation and identified as at risk of hypoglycemia (small, large, infant of a diabetic, late-preterm, and other). Blood glucose screening used a standard protocol and a glucose oxidase method of glucose measurement in the first 48 hours after birth. One-half of the babies (260/514, 51%) became hypoglycemic (<2.6 mM), 97 (19%) had severe hypoglycemia (≤2.0 mM), and 98 (19%) had more than 1 episode. The mean duration of an episode was 1.4 hours. Most episodes (315/390, 81%) occurred in the first 24 hours. The median number of blood glucose measurements for each baby was 9 (range 1-22). The incidence and timing of hypoglycemia was similar in all at risk groups, but babies with a total of 3 risk factors were more likely to have severe hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is common amongst babies recommended for routine blood glucose screening. We found no evidence that screening protocols should differ in different at risk groups, but multiple risk factors may increase severity. The significance of these hypoglycemic episodes for long-term outcome remains undetermined. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Short communication: Noninvasive indicators to identify lactating dairy cows with a greater risk of subacute rumen acidosis.

    PubMed

    Gao, X; Oba, M

    2015-08-01

    The objective of the current study was to evaluate if milk urea nitrogen (MUN) and milk fat content could be used as the noninvasive indicator to identify cows with greater or lower risk of subacute ruminal acidosis (SARA). Our hypothesis was that cows with lower MUN and milk fat content would have greater risk of SARA, whereas cows with higher MUN and milk fat content would have lower risk of SARA. In the screening study, 35 late-lactating Holstein cows (DIM=250±71.1; BW=601±45.4kg) were fed a high-grain diet containing 35% forage and 65% concentrate mix ad libitum for 21 d. Concentration of MUN ranged from 5.7 to 13.9Mg/dL among the 35 cows, and the average milk fat content was 3.5%. Then, 5 cows with highest MUN concentrations with milk fat higher than 3.5% were selected as animals that presumably have low risk of SARA, and 5 cows with lowest MUN concentrations with milk fat less than 3.5% were selected as animals that presumably have high risk of SARA. These 10 animals were ruminally cannulated during the subsequent dry period. As 1 low-risk cow was culled due to fatty liver, 9 animals (DIM=122±33.2; BW=615±49.1kg) were used in the subsequent study in the following lactation. All cows were fed a high-grain diet consisting of 35% forage and 65% concentrate mix ad libitum for 21 d. Ruminal pH was measured every 30 s for 72 h. Minimum (5.75 vs. 5.30) and mean ruminal pH (6.35 vs. 6.04) was higher for low- compared with high-risk animals. In addition, duration of rumen pH below 5.8 was shorter in low-risk animals (52.5 vs. 395min/d). These results suggested that MUN and milk fat content in late-lactating cows fed a high-grain diet may be used to identify cows that have higher or lower risk of SARA. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Using Participatory Risk Mapping (PRM) to Identify and Understand People's Perceptions of Crop Loss to Animals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Webber, Amanda D.; Hill, Catherine M.

    2014-01-01

    Considering how people perceive risks to their livelihoods from local wildlife is central to (i) understanding the impact of crop damage by animals on local people and (ii) recognising how this influences their interactions with, and attitudes towards, wildlife. Participatory risk mapping (PRM) is a simple, analytical tool that can be used to identify and classify risk within communities. Here we use it to explore local people's perceptions of crop damage by wildlife and the animal species involved. Interviews (n = 93, n = 76) and seven focus groups were conducted in four villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda during 2004 and 2005. Farms (N = 129) were simultaneously monitored for crop loss. Farmers identified damage by wildlife as the most significant risk to their crops; risk maps highlighted its anomalous status compared to other anticipated challenges to agricultural production. PRM was further used to explore farmers' perceptions of animal species causing crop damage and the results of this analysis compared with measured crop losses. Baboons (Papio anubis) were considered the most problematic species locally but measurements of loss indicate this perceived severity was disproportionately high. In contrast goats (Capra hircus) were considered only a moderate risk, yet risk of damage by this species was significant. Surprisingly, for wild pigs (Potamochoerus sp), perceptions of severity were not as high as damage incurred might have predicted, although perceived incidence was greater than recorded frequency of damage events. PRM can assist researchers and practitioners to identify and explore perceptions of the risk of crop damage by wildlife. As this study highlights, simply quantifying crop loss does not determine issues that are important to local people nor the complex relationships between perceived risk factors. Furthermore, as PRM is easily transferable it may contribute to the identification and development of standardised approaches

  18. Identifying hotspots of coastal risk and evaluating DRR measures: results from the RISC-KIT project.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Ciavola, P.; Viavattene, C.; Dekleermaeker, S.; Martinez, G.; Ferreira, O.; Costa, C.

    2016-02-01

    High-impact storm events have demonstrated the vulnerability of coastal zones in Europe and beyond. These impacts are likely to increase due to predicted climate change and ongoing coastal development. In order to reduce impacts, disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures need to be taken, which prevent or mitigate the effects of storm events. To drive the DRR agenda, the UNISDR formulated the Sendai Framework for Action, and the EU has issued the Floods Directive. However, neither is specific about the methods to be used to develop actionable DRR measures in the coastal zone. Therefore, there is a need to develop methods, tools and approaches which make it possible to: identify and prioritize the coastal zones which are most at risk through a Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, evaluate the effectiveness of DRR options for these coastal areas, using an Early Warning/Decision Support System, which can be used both in the planning and event-phase. This paper gives an overview of the products and results obtained in the FP7-funded project RISC-KIT, which aims to develop and apply a set of tools with which highly-vulnerable coastal areas (so-called "hotspots") can be identified. The identification is done using the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework, or CRAF, which computes the intensity from multi-hazards, the exposure and the vulnerability, all components of risk, including network and cascading effects. Based on this analysis hot spots of risk which warrant coastal protection investments are selected. For these hotspot areas, high-resolution Early Warning and Decision Support Tools are developed with which it is possible to compute in detail the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in storm event scenarios, which helps decide which measures to implement in the planning phase. The same systems, but now driven with real time data, can also be used for early warning systems. All tools are tested on eleven case study areas, at least one on each EU Regional Sea

  19. Identifying barriers to the provision of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in high-risk regions: a qualitative review of emergency calls.

    PubMed

    Case, Rosalind; Cartledge, Susie; Siedenburg, Josine; Smith, Karen; Straney, Lahn; Barger, Bill; Finn, Judith; Bray, Janet E

    2018-06-01

    Understanding regional variation in bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is important to improving out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survival. In this study we aimed to identify barriers to providing bystander CPR in regions with low rates of bystander CPR and where OHCA was recognised in the emergency call. We retrospectively reviewed emergency calls for adults in regions of low bystander CPR in the Australian state of Victoria. Included calls were those where OHCA was identified during the call but no bystander CPR was given. A thematic content analysis was independently conducted by two investigators. Saturation of themes was reached after listening to 139 calls. Calls progressed to the point of compression instructions before EMS arrival in only 26 (18.7%) of cases. Three types of barriers were identified: procedural barriers (time lost due to language barriers and communication issues; telephone problems), CPR knowledge (skill deficits; perceived benefit) and personal factors (physical frailty or disability; patient position; emotional factors). A range of factors are associated with barriers to delivering bystander CPR even in the presence of dispatcher instructions -some of which are modifiable. To overcome these barriers in high-risk regions, targeted public education needs to provide information about what occurs in an emergency call, how to recognise an OHCA and to improve CPR knowledge and skills. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. A random urine test can identify patients at risk of mesalamine non-adherence: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Gifford, Anne E; Berg, Anders H; Lahiff, Conor; Cheifetz, Adam S; Horowitz, Gary; Moss, Alan C

    2013-02-01

    Mesalamine non-adherence is common among patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and can be difficult to identify in practice. We sought to determine whether a random urine test for salicylates could be used as a marker of 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) ingestion and identify patients at risk of non-adherence. Our aim is to determine whether measurement of salicylates in a random urine sample correlates with 5-ASA levels, and predicts an individual's risk of mesalamine non-adherence. Prospective observational study. Urinary salicylates (by colorimetry) and 5-ASA (by liquid chromatography and tandem-mass spectrometry) were measured in a random urine sample at baseline in patients and controls. Mesalamine adherence was quantified by patient self-reports at enrollment and pharmacy refills of mesalamine over 6 months. A total of 93 patients with UC taking mesalamine maintenance therapy were prospectively enrolled from the clinic. Random urine salicylate levels (by colorimetry) were highly correlated with urine 5-ASA metabolite levels (by mass spectrometry; R2=0.9). A random urine salicylate level above 15 mg/dl distinguished patients who had recently taken mesalamine from controls (area under the curve value 0.9, sensitivity 95%, specificity 77%). A significant proportion of patients (27%) who self-identified as "high adherers" by an adherence questionnaire (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8) had random levels of urine salicylate below this threshold. These patients were at higher risk of objectively measured non-adherence to mesalamine over the subsequent 6 months (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-7.0). A random urine salicylate level measured in the clinic can identify patients who have not recently taken mesalamine, and who are at higher risk of longitudinal non-adherence. This test could be used to screen patients who may warrant interventions to improve adherence and prevent disease relapse.

  1. Identifying the women at risk of antenatal anxiety and depression: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Biaggi, Alessandra; Conroy, Susan; Pawlby, Susan; Pariante, Carmine M

    2016-02-01

    Pregnancy is a time of increased vulnerability for the development of anxiety and depression. This systematic review aims to identify the main risk factors involved in the onset of antenatal anxiety and depression. A systematic literature analysis was conducted, using PubMed, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library. Original papers were included if they were written in English and published between 1st January 2003 and 31st August 2015, while literature reviews and meta-analyses were consulted regardless of publication date. A final number of 97 papers were selected. The most relevant factors associated with antenatal depression or anxiety were: lack of partner or of social support; history of abuse or of domestic violence; personal history of mental illness; unplanned or unwanted pregnancy; adverse events in life and high perceived stress; present/past pregnancy complications; and pregnancy loss. The review does not include a meta-analysis, which may have added additional information about the differential impact of each risk factor. Moreover, it does not specifically examine factors that may influence different types of anxiety disorders, or the recurrence or persistence of depression or anxiety from pregnancy to the postpartum period. The results show the complex aetiology of antenatal depression and anxiety. The administration of a screening tool to identify women at risk of anxiety and depression during pregnancy should be universal practice in order to promote the long-term wellbeing of mothers and babies, and the knowledge of specific risk factors may help creating such screening tool targeting women at higher risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. [Facilitating the diagnosis of depression and burnout by identifying demographic and work-related risk and protective factors among nurses].

    PubMed

    Ádám, Szilvia; Nistor, Anikó; Nistor, Katalin; Cserháti, Zoltán; Mészáros, Veronika

    2015-08-09

    Depression and burnout are frequent comorbidities among nurses. Despite similar symptoms, their management differ. Therefore, their timely diagnosis is essential. To identify demographic and work-related risk and protective factors of burnout and depression, and facilitate their diagnosis. A cross-sectional study among 1,713 nurses was carried out. Depression and burnout were assessed by the shortened Beck Depression Questionnaire and Maclach Burnout Inventory, respectively. Risk and protective factors were explored using t-tests and analysis of variance. The prevalence of depression and moderate-to-high burnout was 35.1% and 34-74%, respectively. Having a partner/child and longer employment in the outpatient setting protected from burnout. Lack of a partner and male sex emerged as risk factors of depression and depersonalisation, respectively. High prevalence of depression and burnout among nurses poses a significant public health issue. Familiarity with the disease-specific risk and protective factors identified in this research may facilitate timely diagnosis and effective disease management.

  3. In Search of Black Swans: Identifying Students at Risk of Failing Licensing Examinations.

    PubMed

    Barber, Cassandra; Hammond, Robert; Gula, Lorne; Tithecott, Gary; Chahine, Saad

    2018-03-01

    To determine which admissions variables and curricular outcomes are predictive of being at risk of failing the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part 1 (MCCQE1), how quickly student risk of failure can be predicted, and to what extent predictive modeling is possible and accurate in estimating future student risk. Data from five graduating cohorts (2011-2015), Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, were collected and analyzed using hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models and determine whether they could be used to predict future risk, using the 2016 graduating cohort. Four predictive models were developed to predict student risk of failure at admissions, year 1, year 2, and pre-MCCQE1. The HGLM analyses identified gender, MCAT verbal reasoning score, two preclerkship course mean grades, and the year 4 summative objective structured clinical examination score as significant predictors of student risk. The predictive accuracy of the models varied. The pre-MCCQE1 model was the most accurate at predicting a student's risk of failing (AUC 0.66-0.93), while the admissions model was not predictive (AUC 0.25-0.47). Key variables predictive of students at risk were found. The predictive models developed suggest, while it is not possible to identify student risk at admission, we can begin to identify and monitor students within the first year. Using such models, programs may be able to identify and monitor students at risk quantitatively and develop tailored intervention strategies.

  4. Identifying risk factors for exposure to culturable allergenic moulds in energy efficient homes by using highly specific monoclonal antibodies.

    PubMed

    Sharpe, Richard A; Cocq, Kate Le; Nikolaou, Vasilis; Osborne, Nicholas J; Thornton, Christopher R

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in identifying culturable allergenic fungi present in visible mould growth in energy efficient homes, and to identify risk factors for exposure to these known allergenic fungi. Swabs were taken from fungal contaminated surfaces and culturable yeasts and moulds isolated by using mycological culture. Soluble antigens from cultures were tested by ELISA using mAbs specific to the culturable allergenic fungi Aspergillus and Penicillium spp., Ulocladium, Alternaria, and Epicoccum spp., Cladosporium spp., Fusarium spp., and Trichoderma spp. Diagnostic accuracies of the ELISA tests were determined by sequencing of the internally transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-5.8S-ITS2-encoding regions of recovered fungi following ELISA. There was 100% concordance between the two methods, with ELISAs providing genus-level identity and ITS sequencing providing species-level identities (210 out of 210 tested). Species of Aspergillus/Penicillium, Cladosporium, Ulocladium/Alternaria/Epicoccum, Fusarium and Trichoderma were detected in 82% of the samples. The presence of condensation was associated with an increased risk of surfaces being contaminated by Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. and Cladosporium spp., whereas moisture within the building fabric (water ingress/rising damp) was only associated with increased risk of Aspergillus/Penicillium spp. Property type and energy efficiency levels were found to moderate the risk of indoor surfaces becoming contaminated with Aspergillus/Penicillium and Cladosporium which in turn was modified by the presence of condensation, water ingress and rising damp, consistent with previous literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    PubMed

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting disease risk, identifying stakeholders, and informing control strategies: A case study of anthrax in Montana

    PubMed Central

    Morris, Lillian R.; Blackburn, Jason K.

    2018-01-01

    Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage, and can lead to large scale die offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs. PMID:27169560

  7. Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana.

    PubMed

    Morris, Lillian R; Blackburn, Jason K

    2016-06-01

    Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage and can lead to large-scale die-offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high-risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi-species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs.

  8. SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA USED FOR IDENTIFYING ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Due to unique social and demographic characteristics, various segments of the population may experience exposures different from those of the general population, which, in many cases, may be greater. When risk assessments do not characterize subsets of the general population, the populations that may experience the greatest risk remain unidentified. When such populations are not identified, the social and demographic data relevant to these populations is not considered when preparing exposure estimates, which can underestimate exposure and risk estimates for at-risk populations. Thus, it is necessary for risk or exposure assessors characterizing a diverse population, to first identify and then enumerate certain groups within the general population who are at risk for greater contaminant exposures. The document entitled Sociodemographic Data Used for Identifying Potentially Highly Exposed Populations (also referred to as the Highly Exposed Populations document), assists assessors in identifying and enumerating potentially highly exposed populations. This document presents data relating to factors which potentially impact an individual or group's exposure to environmental contaminants based on activity patterns (how time is spent), microenvironments (locations where time is spent), and other socio-demographic data such as age, gender, race and economic status. Populations potentially more exposed to various chemicals of concern, relative to the general population

  9. Can an educational application increase risk perception accuracy amongst patients attending a high-risk breast cancer clinic?

    PubMed

    Keohane, D; Lehane, E; Rutherford, E; Livingstone, V; Kelly, L; Kaimkhani, S; O'Connell, F; Redmond, H P; Corrigan, M A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and test the effect of an educational initiative to improve risk perception amongst patients attending a high-risk breast cancer clinic. This was achieved through three objectives - 1. identifying an optimal method of presenting risk data, 2. designing and building a risk application, and 3. testing the ability of the application to successfully modify patients perceived risk of cancer. A mobile application was developed for this project using best practice methods for displaying risk information. Patients (n = 84) were randomly allocated into two groups - 'Control' or 'Treatment'. Both groups underwent standard risk counseling while the application was employed in the 'Treatment' group. The patients were surveyed before their session, immediately after and six weeks later. Increases in accuracy were seen in both groups with larger increases demonstrated in the 'Treatment' group with 'Personal 10 Year Risk' statistically significant ('Control' group increase from 21% to 48% vs the 'Treatment' group increase from 33% to 71% - p = 0.003). This project demonstrated trends towards improved risk perception, however mixed logistic regression was unable to show a 30% difference between groups. Numerical literacy and understanding of risk were identified as issues amongst the general population. Overestimating risk remains high amongst attendees. Using mobile applications to convey risk information to patients is a new and evolving area with a corresponding paucity of data. We have demonstrated its potential and emphasised the importance of designing how this information is communicated to patients in order to make it understandable and meaningful. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Adolescents with high periodontal risk in Public Dental Service.

    PubMed

    Jansson, Leif; Adler, Lottie; Jonés, Catarina

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of adolescents with high periodontal risk and to identify factors with influence on the decision to refer a patient to a specialist clinic of Periodontology, on compliance rate and on treatment outcome. The investigation was conducted as a retrospective study on adolescents at age 13-17. In total, clinical examinations and risk evaluations according to caries- and periodontal risk were performed on 50347 adolescents in general dentistry at ages 13, 15 and 17 in 2007. Individuals with a high periodontal risk were included in the present investigation. A high periodontal risk was defined as presence of sites with periodontal pocket depths >6mm and loss of periodontal tissue support. Multiple logistic regression analyses were adopted to calculate the influence of the potential predictors on the investigated dependent variables. In total, 0.5% of the adolescents were found to have high periodontal risk. The diagnosis local periodontitis and the number of periodontal pockets with probing depths >6 mm were positively and significantly correlated to referral to a periodontist. Eighteen percent dropped out before the treatment was completed. Smokers had a significantly lower compliance than non-smokers. The success rate was significantly lower for individuals with many periodontal pockets and for those with the diagnosis local periodontitis. The prevalence of adolescents classified as having high periodontal risk was low. A large frequency of subjects dropped out before the periodontal treatment was completed, especially at the specialist clinics.

  11. The MAT-sf: identifying risk for major mobility disability.

    PubMed

    Rejeski, W Jack; Rushing, Julia; Guralnik, Jack M; Ip, Edward H; King, Abby C; Manini, Todd M; Marsh, Anthony P; McDermott, Mary M; Fielding, Roger A; Newman, Anne B; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Gill, Thomas M

    2015-05-01

    The assessment of mobility is essential to both aging research and clinical geriatric practice. A newly developed self-report measure of mobility, the mobility assessment tool-short form (MAT-sf), uses video animations as an innovative method to improve measurement accuracy/precision. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate whether MAT-sf scores can be used to identify risk for major mobility disability (MMD). This article is based on data collected from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders study and involved 1,574 older adults between the ages of 70-89. The MAT-sf was administered at baseline; MMD, operationalized as failure to complete the 400-m walk ≤ 15 minutes, was evaluated at 6-month intervals across a period of 42 months. The outcome of interest was the first occurrence of MMD or incident MMD. After controlling for age, sex, clinic site, and treatment arm, baseline MAT-sf scores were found to be effective in identifying risk for MMD (p < .0001). Partitioning the MAT-sf into four groups revealed that persons with scores <40, 40-49, 50-59, and 60+ had failure rates across 42 months of follow-up of 66%, 52%, 35%, and 22%, respectively. The MAT-sf is a quick and efficient way of identifying older adults at risk for MMD. It could be used to clinically identify older adults that are in need of intervention for MMD and provides a simple means for monitoring the status of patients' mobility, an important dimension of functional health. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Predicting the Need for Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy by Identifying Patients at High Risk for Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Onoya, Dorina; Nattey, Cornelius; Budgell, Eric; van den Berg, Liudmyla; Maskew, Mhairi; Evans, Denise; Hirasen, Kamban; Long, Lawrence C; Fox, Matthew P

    2017-05-01

    Although third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available in South Africa's public sector, its cost is substantially higher than first and second line. Identifying risk factors for failure on second-line treatment remains crucial to reduce the need for third-line drugs. We conducted a case-control study including 194 adult patients (≥18 years; 70 cases and 124 controls) who initiated second-line ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess predictors of virologic failure (defined as 2 consecutive viral load measures ≥1000 copies/mL, ≥3 months after switching to second line). Variables included a social instability index, ART adherence, self-reported as well as diagnosed adverse drug reactions (ADRs), HIV disclosure, depression, and factors affecting access to HIV clinics. Overall 60.0% of cases and 54.0% of controls were female. Mean ages of cases and controls were 41.8 ± 9.6 and 43.3 ± 8.0, respectively. Virologic failure was predicted by ART adherence <90% [odds ratio (OR) 4.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.1-10.5], younger age (<40 years of age; OR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3-1.1), high social instability (OR 3.8; 95% CI: 1.30-11.5), self-reported ADR (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), disclosure to friends/colleagues rather than partner/relatives (OR 3.4; 95% CI: 1.3-9.1), and medium/high depression compared to low/no depression (OR 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5-13.4). Our results suggest complex socioeconomic factors contributing to risk of virologic failure, possibly by impacting ART adherence, among patients on second-line therapy in South Africa. Identifying patients with possible indicators of nonadherence could facilitate targeted interventions to reduce the risk of second-line treatment failure and mitigate the demand for third-line regimens.

  13. Identifying At-Risk Individuals for Insomnia Using the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test

    PubMed Central

    Kalmbach, David A.; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J. Todd; Drake, Christopher L.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: A primary focus of the National Institute of Mental Health's current strategic plan is “predicting” who is at risk for disease. As such, the current investigation examined the utility of premorbid sleep reactivity in identifying a specific and manageable population at elevated risk for future insomnia. Methods: A community-based sample of adults (n = 2,892; 59.3% female; 47.9 ± 13.3 y old) with no lifetime history of insomnia or depression completed web-based surveys across three annual assessments. Participants reported parental history of insomnia, demographic characteristics, sleep reactivity on the Ford Insomnia in Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and insomnia symptoms. DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were used to determine insomnia classification. Results: Baseline FIRST scores were used to predict incident insomnia at 1-y follow-up. Two clinically meaningful FIRST cutoff values were identified: FIRST ≥ 16 (sensitivity 77%; specificity 50%; odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, P < 0.001); and FIRST ≥ 18 (sensitivity 62%; specificity 67%; OR = 3.32, P < 0.001). Notably, both FIRST cut-points outperformed known maternal (OR = 1.49–1.59, P < 0.01) and paternal history (P = NS) in predicting insomnia onset, even after controlling for stress exposure and demographic characteristics. Of the incident cases, insomniacs with highly reactive sleep systems reported longer sleep onset latencies (FIRST ≥ 16: 65 min; FIRST ≥ 18: 68 min) than participants with nonreactive insomnia (FIRST < 16: 37 min; FIRST < 18: 44 min); these groups did not differ on any other sleep parameters. Conclusions: The current study established a cost- and time-effective strategy for identifying individuals at elevated risk for insomnia based on trait sleep reactivity. The FIRST accurately identifies a focused target population in which the psychobiological processes complicit in insomnia onset and progression can be better investigated, thus improving future preventive efforts

  14. Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

  15. Identifying Voxels at Risk for Progression in Glioblastoma Based on Dosimetry, Physiologic and Metabolic MRI.

    PubMed

    Anwar, Mekhail; Molinaro, Annette M; Morin, Olivier; Chang, Susan M; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A; Nelson, Sarah J; Lupo, Janine M

    2017-09-01

    Despite the longstanding role of radiation in cancer treatment and the presence of advanced, high-resolution imaging techniques, delineation of voxels at-risk for progression remains purely a geometric expansion of anatomic images, missing subclinical disease at risk for recurrence while treating potentially uninvolved tissue and increasing toxicity. This remains despite the modern ability to precisely shape radiation fields. A striking example of this is the treatment of glioblastoma, a highly infiltrative tumor that may benefit from accurate identification of subclinical disease. In this study, we hypothesize that parameters from physiologic and metabolic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at diagnosis could predict the likelihood of voxel progression at radiographic recurrence in glioblastoma by identifying voxel characteristics that indicate subclinical disease. Integrating dosimetry can reveal its effect on voxel outcome, enabling risk-adapted voxel dosing. As a system example, 24 patients with glioblastoma treated with radiotherapy, temozolomide and an anti-angiogenic agent were analyzed. Pretreatment median apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), fractional anisotropy (FA), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), vessel leakage (percentage recovery), choline-to-NAA index (CNI) and dose of voxels in the T2 nonenhancing lesion (NEL), T1 post-contrast enhancing lesion (CEL) or normal-appearing volume (NAV) of brain, were calculated for voxels that progressed [NAV→NEL, CEL (N = 8,765)] and compared against those that remained stable [NAV→NAV (N = 98,665)]. Voxels that progressed (NAV→NEL) had significantly different (P < 0.01) ADC (860), FA (0.36) and CNI (0.67) versus stable voxels (804, 0.43 and 0.05, respectively), indicating increased cell turnover, edema and decreased directionality, consistent with subclinical disease. NAV→CEL voxels were more abnormal (1,014, 0.28, 2.67, respectively) and leakier (percentage recovery = 70). A predictive model

  16. Identifying environmental risk factors and mapping the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hess, A.; Davis, J. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human West Nile virus (WNV) first arrived in the USA in 1999 and has since then spread across the country. Today, the highest incidence rates are found in the state of South Dakota. The disease occurrence depends on the complex interaction between the mosquito vector, the bird host and the dead-end human host. Understanding the spatial domain of this interaction and being able to identify disease transmission hotspots is crucial for effective disease prevention and mosquito control. In this study we use geospatial environmental information to understand what drives the spatial distribution of cases of human West Nile virus in South Dakota and to map relative infection risk across the state. To map the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota, we used geocoded human case data from the years 2004-2016. Satellite data from the Landsat ETM+ and MODIS for the years 2003 to 2016 were used to characterize environmental patterns. From these datasets we calculated indices, such as the normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized differenced water index (NDWI). In addition, datasets such as the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), National Wetland inventory (NWI), National Elevation Dataset (NED) and Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) were utilized. Environmental variables were summarized for a buffer zone around the case and control points. We used a boosted regression tree model to identify the most important variables describing the risk of WNV infection. We generated a risk map by applying this model across the entire state. We found that the highest relative risk is present in the James River valley in northeastern South Dakota. Factors that were identified as influencing the transmission risk include inter-annual variability of vegetation cover, water availability and temperature. Land covers such as grasslands, low developed areas and wetlands were also found to be good predictors for human

  17. Identifying patients at high risk of tuberculosis recurrence.

    PubMed

    Sadikot, Ruxana T

    2016-12-01

    Several studies have been done in relation to recurrence of tuberculosis (TB) following completion of treatment. However, recurrence of TB is still a major problem from a public health perspective in high-burden countries, where no special attention is being given to this issue. Disease recurrence is an important indicator of the efficacy of antituberculosis treatment. The rate of recurrence is highly variable and has been estimated to range from 4.9% to 25%. This variability is not only a reflection of regional epidemiology of recurrence but differences in the definitions used by the TB control programs. In addition to treatment failure related to medication adherence, there are several key host factors that are associated with high rates of recurrence. The widely recognized host factors independent of treatment program that predispose to TB recurrence include: malnutrition; human immunodeficiency virus; substance abuse including tobacco use; comorbidity such as diabetes, renal failure and systemic diseases, especially immunosuppressive states; and environmental exposure such as silicosis. With improved understanding of the human genome, proteome, and metabolome, additional host-specific factors that predispose to recurrence are being discovered. Information on temporal and geographical trends of TB cases as well as genotyping might provide further information to enable us to fully understand TB recurrence and discriminate between reactivation and new infection. The recently launched World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasizes the importance of integrated, patient-centered TB care. Continued improvement in diagnosis, treatment approaches, and defining host-specific factors are needed to fully understand the clinical epidemiological and social determinants of TB recurrence. Copyright © 2016.

  18. Use of an HIV-risk screening tool to identify optimal candidates for PrEP scale-up among men who have sex with men in Toronto, Canada: disconnect between objective and subjective HIV risk.

    PubMed

    Wilton, James; Kain, Taylor; Fowler, Shawn; Hart, Trevor A; Grennan, Troy; Maxwell, John; Tan, Darrell Hs

    2016-01-01

    Identifying appropriate pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) candidates is a challenge in planning for the safe and effective roll-out of this strategy. We explored the use of a validated HIV risk screening tool, HIV Incidence Risk Index for Men who have Sex with Men (HIRI-MSM), to identify "optimal" candidates among MSM testing at a busy sexual health clinic's community testing sites in Toronto, Canada. Between November 2014 and April 2015, we surveyed MSM undergoing anonymous HIV testing at community testing sites in Toronto, Canada, to quantify "optimal" candidates for scaling up PrEP roll-out, defined as being at high objective HIV risk (scoring ≥10 on the HIRI-MSM), perceiving oneself at moderate-to-high HIV risk and being willing to use PrEP. Cascades were constructed to identify barriers to broader PrEP uptake. The association between HIRI-MSM score and both willingness to use PrEP and perceived HIV risk were explored in separate multivariable logistic regression analyses. Of 420 respondents, 64.4% were objectively at high risk, 52.5% were willing to use PrEP and 27.2% perceived themselves at moderate-to-high HIV risk. Only 16.4% were "optimal" candidates. Higher HIRI-MSM scores were positively associated with both willingness to use PrEP (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.3-2.2) and moderate-to-high perceived HIV risk (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.2-2.3). The proportion of men who were "optimal" candidates increased to 42.9% when the objective HIV risk cut-off was changed to top quartile of HIRI-MSM scores (≥26). In our full cascade, a very low proportion (5.3%) of MSM surveyed could potentially benefit from PrEP under current conditions. The greatest barrier in the cascade was low perception of HIV risk among high-risk men, but considerable numbers were also lost in downstream cascade steps. Of men at high objective HIV risk, 68.3% did not perceive themselves to be at moderate-to-high HIV risk, 23.6% were unaware of PrEP, 40.1% were not

  19. Use of an HIV-risk screening tool to identify optimal candidates for PrEP scale-up among men who have sex with men in Toronto, Canada: disconnect between objective and subjective HIV risk

    PubMed Central

    Wilton, James; Kain, Taylor; Fowler, Shawn; Hart, Trevor A; Grennan, Troy; Maxwell, John; Tan, Darrell HS

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Identifying appropriate pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) candidates is a challenge in planning for the safe and effective roll-out of this strategy. We explored the use of a validated HIV risk screening tool, HIV Incidence Risk Index for Men who have Sex with Men (HIRI-MSM), to identify “optimal” candidates among MSM testing at a busy sexual health clinic's community testing sites in Toronto, Canada. Methods Between November 2014 and April 2015, we surveyed MSM undergoing anonymous HIV testing at community testing sites in Toronto, Canada, to quantify “optimal” candidates for scaling up PrEP roll-out, defined as being at high objective HIV risk (scoring ≥10 on the HIRI-MSM), perceiving oneself at moderate-to-high HIV risk and being willing to use PrEP. Cascades were constructed to identify barriers to broader PrEP uptake. The association between HIRI-MSM score and both willingness to use PrEP and perceived HIV risk were explored in separate multivariable logistic regression analyses. Results Of 420 respondents, 64.4% were objectively at high risk, 52.5% were willing to use PrEP and 27.2% perceived themselves at moderate-to-high HIV risk. Only 16.4% were “optimal” candidates. Higher HIRI-MSM scores were positively associated with both willingness to use PrEP (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.3–2.2) and moderate-to-high perceived HIV risk (aOR=1.7 per 10 score increase, 95%CI=1.2–2.3). The proportion of men who were “optimal” candidates increased to 42.9% when the objective HIV risk cut-off was changed to top quartile of HIRI-MSM scores (≥26). In our full cascade, a very low proportion (5.3%) of MSM surveyed could potentially benefit from PrEP under current conditions. The greatest barrier in the cascade was low perception of HIV risk among high-risk men, but considerable numbers were also lost in downstream cascade steps. Of men at high objective HIV risk, 68.3% did not perceive themselves to be at moderate-to-high HIV risk

  20. Risk factors in cardiovascular disease mortality associated with high exposure to vehicular traffic.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Poliany Cristiny de Oliveira; Santos, Emerson Soares Dos; Hacon, Sandra de Souza; Ignotti, Eliane

    2017-01-01

    To identify areas and risk factors in cardiovascular disease (CD) mortality associated with air pollution from high exposure to vehicular traffic. Cross-sectional study of CD mortality in 2,617 individuals aged 45-85 years living in the urban area of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, between 2009 and 2011. We used the residential proximity of up to 150 meters to a roadway of great vehicle flow as a proxy of high exposure to air pollution from vehicular traffic. The association between age, gender, income, and traffic intensity with vehicular traffic exposure was assessed through the multiple logistic regression. We conducted stratified analyses to observe the influence of seasons and groups of causes. We used Bernoulli's spatial model of probability to identify high-risk clusters. Risk factors for CD mortality associated with high exposure to vehicular traffic were: living in census tracts with very unequal income (OR = 1.78; 95%CI 1.36 - 2.33), heavy traffic (OR = 1.20; 95%CI 1.01 - 1.43), and female gender (OR = 1.18; 95%CI 1.01 - 1.38). The CD mortality risk increases about 10% during the dry season period. We identified nine areas of risk. High exposure to traffic is associated with CD mortality in Cuiabá and Várzea Grande. Income inequality, traffic intensity, and female gender presented as the main determiners for this exposure. The dry season period enhances the effects of traffic exposure.

  1. DNA Repair Alterations in Children With Pediatric Malignancies: Novel Opportunities to Identify Patients at Risk for High-Grade Toxicities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ruebe, Claudia E., E-mail: claudia.ruebe@uks.e; Fricke, Andreas; Schneider, Ruth

    Purpose: To evaluate, in a pilot study, the phosphorylated H2AX ({gamma}H2AX) foci approach for identifying patients with double-strand break (DSB) repair deficiencies, who may overreact to DNA-damaging cancer therapy. Methods and Materials: The DSB repair capacity of children with solid cancers was analyzed compared with that of age-matched control children and correlated with treatment-related normal-tissue responses (n = 47). Double-strand break repair was investigated by counting {gamma}H2AX foci in blood lymphocytes at defined time points after irradiation of blood samples. Results: Whereas all healthy control children exhibited proficient DSB repair, 3 children with tumors revealed clearly impaired DSB repair capacities,more » and 2 of these repair-deficient children developed life-threatening or even lethal normal-tissue toxicities. The underlying mutations affecting regulatory factors involved in DNA repair pathways were identified. Moreover, significant differences in mean DSB repair capacity were observed between children with tumors and control children, suggesting that childhood cancer is based on genetic alterations affecting DSB repair function. Conclusions: Double-strand break repair alteration in children may predispose to cancer formation and may affect children's susceptibility to normal-tissue toxicities. Phosphorylated H2AX analysis of blood samples allows one to detect DSB repair deficiencies and thus enables identification of children at risk for high-grade toxicities.« less

  2. Dynamic 18F-FET PET in newly diagnosed astrocytic low-grade glioma identifies high-risk patients.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Nathalie L; Suchorska, Bogdana; Wenter, Vera; Eigenbrod, Sabina; Schmid-Tannwald, Christine; Zwergal, Andreas; Niyazi, Maximilian; Drexler, Mark; Bartenstein, Peter; Schnell, Oliver; Tonn, Jörg-Christian; Thon, Niklas; Kreth, Friedrich-Wilhelm; la Fougère, Christian

    2014-02-01

    Because the clinical course of low-grade gliomas in the individual adult patient varies considerably and is unpredictable, we investigated the prognostic value of dynamic (18)F-fluorethyltyrosine ((18)F-FET) PET in the early diagnosis of astrocytic low-grade glioma (World Health Organization grade II). Fifty-nine patients with newly diagnosed low-grade glioma and dynamic (18)F-FET PET before histopathologic assessment were retrospectively investigated. (18)F-FET PET analysis comprised a qualitative visual classification of lesions; assessment of the semiquantitative parameters maximal, mean, and total standardized uptake value as ratio to background and biologic tumor volume; and dynamic analysis of intratumoral (18)F-FET uptake over time (increasing vs. decreasing time-activity curves). The correlation between PET parameters and progression-free survival, overall survival, and time to malignant transformation was investigated. (18)F-FET uptake greater than the background level was found in 34 of 59 tumors. Dynamic (18)F-FET uptake analysis was available for 30 of these 34 patients. Increasing and decreasing time-activity curves were found in 18 and 12 patients, respectively. Neither the qualitative factor presence or absence of (18)F-FET uptake nor any of the semiquantitative uptake parameters significantly influenced clinical outcome. In contrast, decreasing time-activity curves in the kinetic analysis were highly prognostic for shorter progression-free survival and time to malignant transformation (P < 0.001). Absence of (18)F-FET uptake in newly diagnosed astrocytic low-grade glioma does not generally indicate an indolent disease course. Among the (18)F-FET-positive gliomas, decreasing time-activity curves in dynamic (18)F-FET PET constitute an unfavorable prognostic factor in astrocytic low-grade glioma and, by identifying high-risk patients, may ease treatment decisions.

  3. High miR-124-3p expression identifies smoking individuals susceptible to atherosclerosis.

    PubMed

    de Ronde, Maurice W J; Kok, Maayke G M; Moerland, Perry D; Van den Bossche, Jan; Neele, Annette E; Halliani, Amalia; van der Made, Ingeborg; de Winther, Menno P J; Meijers, Joost C M; Creemers, Esther E; Pinto-Sietsma, Sara-Joan

    2017-08-01

    The risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is twice as high among smoking individuals compared to non-smokers. Monocytes are involved in smoking-related atherosclerotic plaque formation. In this study, we investigated whether smokers with an increased risk of developing CVD can be identified on the basis of monocyte-derived miRNA expression levels. We performed a miRNA microarray experiment on isolated monocytes from smoking, former smoking and non-smoking individuals in a cohort of patients with premature CVD and healthy controls (Cohort I, n = 76). We found miR-124-3p to be heterogeneously expressed among all smoking individuals, whereas expression was low in non-smokers. Subsequently, RT-qPCR measurements on whole blood showed that among smoking individuals an increase in miR-124-3p is associated with an increased risk for advanced atherosclerotic disease (cohort II, n = 24) (OR 11.72 95% CI 1.09-126.53) and subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium score ≥ 80 th percentile, cohort III n = 138) (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.05-7.01). This was not observed among former smokers or non-smoking individuals. Flow cytometric analysis demonstrated that high miR-124-3p expression was associated with upregulation of the monocyte surface markers CD45RA, CD29 and CD206, indicating an altered monocyte phenotype. Finally, overexpression of miR-124-3p resulted in an upregulation of CD206 surface expression on monocytes. High miR-124-3p expression is associated with an increased risk of subclinical atherosclerosis in smoking individuals and with an altered monocyte phenotype. This may suggest that miR-124-3p identifies which smoking individuals are susceptible to the atherogenic effects of smoking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Tool to Identify Hotspots at the Regional Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Dongeren, A.; Viavattene, C.; Jimenez, J. A.; Ferreira, O.; Bolle, A.; Owen, D.; Priest, S.

    2016-02-01

    Extreme events in combination with an increasing population on the coast, future sea level rise and the deterioration of coastal defences can lead to catastrophic consequences for coastal communities and their activities. The Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit (RISC-KIT) FP7 EU project is producing a set of EU-coherent open-source and open-access tools in support of coastal managers and decision-makers. This paper presents one of these tools, the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) which assesses coastal risk at a regional scale to identify potential impact hotspots for more detailed assessment. Applying a suite of complex models at a full and detailed regional scale remains difficult and may not be efficient, therefore a 2-phase approach is adopted. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process based on a coastal-index approach delimiting several hotspots in alongshore length by assessing the potential exposure for every kilometre along the coast. CRAF Phase 2 uses a suite of more complex modelling process (including X-beach 1D, inundation model, impact assessment and Multi-Criteria Analysis approach) to analyse and compare the risks between the aforementioned identified hotspots. Results of its application are compared on 3 European Case Studies, the Flemish highly protected low-lying coastal plain with important urbanization and harbors, a Portuguese coastal lagoon protected by a multi-inlet barrier system, the highly urbanized Catalonian coast with touristic activities at threat. The flexibility of the tool allows tailoring the comparative analysis to these different contexts and to adapt to the quality of resources and data available. Key lessons will be presented.

  5. Using a personality inventory to identify risk of distress and burnout among early stage medical students.

    PubMed

    Bughi, Stephanie A; Lie, Desiree A; Zia, Stephanie K; Rosenthal, Jane

    2017-01-01

    Distress and burnout are common among medical students and negatively impact students' physical, mental, and emotional health. Personality inventories such as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), used in medical education, may have a role in identifying burnout risk early. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among 185 1st year medical students with the MBTI, the general well-being schedule (GWB), and Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS). Descriptive statistics and one-way MANOVAs were used to identify the prevalence and differences in MBTI preferences and distress/burnout risk. Response rate was 185/185 (100%). Distress (GWB) was reported by 84/185 (45.4%). High scores on exhaustion were reported by 118/182 (64.8%), cynicism by 76/182 (41.8%), and decreased professional efficacy by 38/182 (20.9%) for the three dimensions of the MBI-SS. Only 21/182 (11.5%) of respondents had high scores on all three dimensions of burnout. Students with MBTI preferences for extraversion reported greater positive well-being (P < 0.05), self-control (P < 0.05), professional efficacy (P < 0.01), and lower levels of depression (P < 0.01) compared with those with introversion preference. Distress and burnout are prevalent early in medical training. The significant difference between extraversion and introversion in relation to distress and burnout deserves further study. Use of a personality inventory may help identify students at risk of burnout and allow appropriate early stress management.

  6. Identifying Candidate Chemical-Disease Linkages ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Presentation at meeting on Environmental and Epigenetic Determinants of IBD in New York, NY on identifying candidate chemical-disease linkages by using AOPs to identify molecular initiating events and using relevant high throughput assays to screen for candidate chemicals. This hazard information is combined with exposure models to inform risk assessment. Presentation at meeting on Environmental and Epigenetic Determinants of IBD in New York, NY on identifying candidate chemical-disease linkages by using AOPs to identify molecular initiating events and using relevant high throughput assays to screen for candidate chemicals. This hazard information is combined with exposure models to inform risk assessment.

  7. Development of a predictive model to identify inpatients at risk of re-admission within 30 days of discharge (PARR-30)

    PubMed Central

    Billings, John; Blunt, Ian; Steventon, Adam; Georghiou, Theo; Lewis, Geraint; Bardsley, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To develop an algorithm for identifying inpatients at high risk of re-admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital in England within 30 days of discharge using information that can either be obtained from hospital information systems or from the patient and their notes. Design Multivariate statistical analysis of routinely collected hospital episode statistics (HES) data using logistic regression to build the predictive model. The model's performance was calculated using bootstrapping. Setting HES data covering all NHS hospital admissions in England. Participants The NHS patients were admitted to hospital between April 2008 and March 2009 (10% sample of all admissions, n=576 868). Main outcome measures Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the algorithm, together with its positive predictive value and sensitivity for a range of risk score thresholds. Results The algorithm produces a ‘risk score’ ranging (0–1) for each admitted patient, and the percentage of patients with a re-admission within 30 days and the mean re-admission costs of all patients are provided for 20 risk bands. At a risk score threshold of 0.5, the positive predictive value (ie, percentage of inpatients identified as high risk who were subsequently re-admitted within 30 days) was 59.2% (95% CI 58.0% to 60.5%); representing 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%) of all inpatients who would be re-admitted within 30 days (sensitivity). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.70). Conclusions We have developed a method of identifying inpatients at high risk of unplanned re-admission to NHS hospitals within 30 days of discharge. Though the models had a low sensitivity, we show how to identify subgroups of patients that contain a high proportion of patients who will be re-admitted within 30 days. Additional work is necessary to validate the model in practice. PMID:22885591

  8. Validating the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II) Using Set-ESEM: Identifying Psychosocial Risk Factors in a Sample of School Principals

    PubMed Central

    Dicke, Theresa; Marsh, Herbert W.; Riley, Philip; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Horwood, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    School principals world-wide report high levels of strain and attrition resulting in a shortage of qualified principals. It is thus crucial to identify psychosocial risk factors that reflect principals' occupational wellbeing. For this purpose, we used the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II), a widely used self-report measure covering multiple psychosocial factors identified by leading occupational stress theories. We evaluated the COPSOQ-II regarding factor structure and longitudinal, discriminant, and convergent validity using latent structural equation modeling in a large sample of Australian school principals (N = 2,049). Results reveal that confirmatory factor analysis produced marginally acceptable model fit. A novel approach we call set exploratory structural equation modeling (set-ESEM), where cross-loadings were only allowed within a priori defined sets of factors, fit well, and was more parsimonious than a full ESEM. Further multitrait-multimethod models based on the set-ESEM confirm the importance of a principal's psychosocial risk factors; Stressors and depression were related to demands and ill-being, while confidence and autonomy were related to wellbeing. We also show that working in the private sector was beneficial for showing a low psychosocial risk, while other demographics have little effects. Finally, we identify five latent risk profiles (high risk to no risk) of school principals based on all psychosocial factors. Overall the research presented here closes the theory application gap of a strong multi-dimensional measure of psychosocial risk-factors. PMID:29760670

  9. Validating the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II) Using Set-ESEM: Identifying Psychosocial Risk Factors in a Sample of School Principals.

    PubMed

    Dicke, Theresa; Marsh, Herbert W; Riley, Philip; Parker, Philip D; Guo, Jiesi; Horwood, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    School principals world-wide report high levels of strain and attrition resulting in a shortage of qualified principals. It is thus crucial to identify psychosocial risk factors that reflect principals' occupational wellbeing. For this purpose, we used the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II), a widely used self-report measure covering multiple psychosocial factors identified by leading occupational stress theories. We evaluated the COPSOQ-II regarding factor structure and longitudinal, discriminant, and convergent validity using latent structural equation modeling in a large sample of Australian school principals ( N = 2,049). Results reveal that confirmatory factor analysis produced marginally acceptable model fit. A novel approach we call set exploratory structural equation modeling (set-ESEM), where cross-loadings were only allowed within a priori defined sets of factors, fit well, and was more parsimonious than a full ESEM. Further multitrait-multimethod models based on the set-ESEM confirm the importance of a principal's psychosocial risk factors; Stressors and depression were related to demands and ill-being, while confidence and autonomy were related to wellbeing. We also show that working in the private sector was beneficial for showing a low psychosocial risk, while other demographics have little effects. Finally, we identify five latent risk profiles (high risk to no risk) of school principals based on all psychosocial factors. Overall the research presented here closes the theory application gap of a strong multi-dimensional measure of psychosocial risk-factors.

  10. Co-expression network analysis identified six hub genes in association with metastasis risk and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Juerong; Zhou, Rui; Chang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Zhao, Qiu

    2017-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high incidence and mortality worldwide, and its carcinogenesis and progression are influenced by a complex network of gene interactions. A weighted gene co-expression network was constructed to identify gene modules associated with the clinical traits in HCC (n = 214). Among the 13 modules, high correlation was only found between the red module and metastasis risk (classified by the HCC metastasis gene signature) (R2 = −0.74). Moreover, in the red module, 34 network hub genes for metastasis risk were identified, six of which (ABAT, AGXT, ALDH6A1, CYP4A11, DAO and EHHADH) were also hub nodes in the protein-protein interaction network of the module genes. Thus, a total of six hub genes were identified. In validation, all hub genes showed a negative correlation with the four-stage HCC progression (P for trend < 0.05) in the test set. Furthermore, in the training set, HCC samples with any hub gene lowly expressed demonstrated a higher recurrence rate and poorer survival rate (hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals > 1). RNA-sequencing data of 142 HCC samples showed consistent results in the prognosis. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) demonstrated that in the samples with any hub gene highly expressed, a total of 24 functional gene sets were enriched, most of which focused on amino acid metabolism and oxidation. In conclusion, co-expression network analysis identified six hub genes in association with HCC metastasis risk and prognosis, which might improve the prognosis by influencing amino acid metabolism and oxidation. PMID:28430663

  11. School-based Study to Identify and Treat Adolescent Students at Risk for Tuberculosis Infection.

    PubMed

    Hatzenbuehler, Lindsay A; Starke, Jeffrey R; Graviss, Edward A; Smith, E O'Brian; Cruz, Andrea T

    2016-07-01

    Screening for and treating tuberculosis (TB) infection in children and adolescents is an effective way of decreasing future TB cases. However, current approaches leave many children at risk for TB unidentified. We recruited adolescent students from 2 public high schools (a magnet and a low-income) in the Houston Independent School District. Compared with the magnet school, the student population at the low-income school was larger, primarily Hispanic and economically disadvantaged. Students were educated about TB, and parents completed a risk factor questionnaire. Students with TB risk factors were tested using 2 interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs). Those with a positive IGRA received a 12-dose regimen of weekly isoniazid/rifapentine (3HP) administered via direct observation at school. Nine hundred twenty-five students received TB education; 73% of their parents submitted the TB questionnaire. Eighty-six percent of students (n = 415) with a TB risk factor identified on the study questionnaire agreed to IGRA testing. Sixteen students had at least one positive IGRA (1% [magnet], 4.1% [low-income]; P = 0.005). Recent student travel to a high-risk country (7) or contact with TB disease (2) were associated with IGRA positivity (P < 0.05). All students with a positive IGRA accepted, tolerated and completed 3HP treatment at school. School-based TB education, screening, testing using IGRAs and administration of 3HP treatment is feasible to improve the identification and treatment of adolescent students at risk for TB.

  12. Chromosome 17 alterations identify good-risk and poor-risk tumors independently of clinical factors in medulloblastoma

    PubMed Central

    McCabe, Martin G.; Bäcklund, L. Magnus; Leong, Hui Sun; Ichimura, Koichi; Collins, V. Peter

    2011-01-01

    Current risk stratification schemas for medulloblastoma, based on combinations of clinical variables and histotype, fail to accurately identify particularly good- and poor-risk tumors. Attempts have been made to improve discriminatory power by combining clinical variables with cytogenetic data. We report here a pooled analysis of all previous reports of chromosomal copy number related to survival data in medulloblastoma. We collated data from previous reports that explicitly quoted survival data and chromosomal copy number in medulloblastoma. We analyzed the relative prognostic significance of currently used clinical risk stratifiers and the chromosomal aberrations previously reported to correlate with survival. In the pooled dataset metastatic disease, incomplete tumor resection and severe anaplasia were associated with poor outcome, while young age at presentation was not prognostically significant. Of the chromosomal variables studied, isolated 17p loss and gain of 1q correlated with poor survival. Gain of 17q without associated loss of 17p showed a trend to improved outcome. The most commonly reported alteration, isodicentric chromosome 17, was not prognostically significant. Sequential multivariate models identified isolated 17p loss, isolated 17q gain, and 1q gain as independent prognostic factors. In a historical dataset, we have identified isolated 17p loss as a marker of poor outcome and 17q gain as a novel putative marker of good prognosis. Biological markers of poor-risk and good-risk tumors will be critical in stratifying treatment in future trials. Our findings should be prospectively validated independently in future clinical studies. PMID:21292688

  13. Diagnosis and Management of High Risk Group for Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Hyuk; Kim, Nayoung

    2015-01-01

    Gastric cancer is associated with high morbidity and mortality worldwide. To reduce the socioeconomic burden related to gastric cancer, it is very important to identify and manage high risk group for gastric cancer. In this review, we describe the general risk factors for gastric cancer and define high risk group for gastric cancer. We discuss strategies for the effective management of patients for the prevention and early detection of gastric cancer. Atrophic gastritis (AG) and intestinal metaplasia (IM) are the most significant risk factors for gastric cancer. Therefore, the accurate selection of individuals with AG and IM may be a key strategy for the prevention and/or early detection of gastric cancer. Although endoscopic evaluation using enhanced technologies such as narrow band imaging-magnification, the serum pepsinogen test, Helicobacter pylori serology, and trefoil factor 3 have been evaluated, a gold standard method to accurately select individuals with AG and IM has not emerged. In terms of managing patients at high risk of gastric cancer, it remains uncertain whether H. pylori eradication reverses and/or prevents the progression of AG and IM. Although endoscopic surveillance in high risk patients is expected to be beneficial, further prospective studies in large populations are needed to determine the optimal surveillance interval. PMID:25547086

  14. Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

    2013-01-01

    Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

  15. Personal, Family, and Social Functioning among Older Couples Concordant and Discordant for High-Risk Alcohol Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Moos, Rudolf H.; Schutte, Kathleen K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Moos, Bernice S.

    2010-01-01

    Aims This study compares the personal, family, and social functioning of older husbands and wives concordant or discordant for high-risk alcohol consumption and identifies predictors of changes in concordance and high-risk consumption. Design, Participants, Measurements Three groups of couples were identified at baseline and followed 10 years later: (1) concordant couples in which husbands and wives engaged in low-risk alcohol consumption (N = 54), (2) concordant couples in which husbands and wives engaged in high-risk alcohol consumption (N = 38), and (3) discordant couples in which one partner engaged in high-risk alcohol consumption and the other partner did not (N = 75). At each follow-up, husbands and wives completed an inventory that assessed their personal, family, and social functioning. Findings Compared to the low-risk concordant group, husbands and wives in the high-risk concordant group were more likely to rely on tension-reduction coping, reported more friend approval of drinking, and were less involved in religious activities; however, they did not differ in the quality of the spousal relationship. The frequency of alcohol consumption declined among husbands in discordant couples, but not among husbands in concordant couples. Predictors of high-risk drinking included tension-reduction coping, friend approval of drinking, and, for husbands, their wives’ level of drinking. Conclusions High-risk and discordant alcohol consumption do not seem to be linked to decrements in family functioning among older couples in long-term stable marriages. The predictors of heavy alcohol consumption among older husbands and wives identify points of intervention that may help to reduce their high-risk drinking. PMID:20883458

  16. Personal, family and social functioning among older couples concordant and discordant for high-risk alcohol consumption.

    PubMed

    Moos, Rudolf H; Schutte, Kathleen K; Brennan, Penny L; Moos, Bernice S

    2011-02-01

    This study compares the personal, family and social functioning of older husbands and wives concordant or discordant for high-risk alcohol consumption and identifies predictors of changes in concordance and high-risk consumption. Three groups of couples were identified at baseline and followed 10 years later: (i) concordant couples in which husbands and wives engaged in low-risk alcohol consumption (n = 54); (ii) concordant couples in which husbands and wives engaged in high-risk alcohol consumption (n = 38); and (iii) discordant couples in which one partner engaged in high-risk alcohol consumption and the other partner did not (n = 75). At each follow-up, husbands and wives completed an inventory that assessed their personal, family and social functioning. Compared to the low-risk concordant group, husbands and wives in the high-risk concordant group were more likely to rely on tension-reduction coping, reported more friend approval of drinking, and were less involved in religious activities; however, they did not differ in the quality of the spousal relationship. The frequency of alcohol consumption declined among husbands in discordant couples, but not among husbands in concordant couples. Predictors of high-risk drinking included tension-reduction coping, friend approval of drinking and, for husbands, their wives' level of drinking. High-risk and discordant alcohol consumption do not seem to be linked to decrements in family functioning among older couples in long-term stable marriages. The predictors of heavy alcohol consumption among older husbands and wives identify points of intervention that may help to reduce their high-risk drinking. © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction. No claim to US government works.

  17. Sexual assault consultations - from high risk to high reliability.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Nicola

    2012-02-01

    The sexual assault consultation is a high-risk procedure with the potential for errors resulting in harm to both patients and staff. As such, it can be likened to practices in highrisk industries such as aviation and surgery. In contrast to these domains however, the focus on performance safety and Threat and Error Management has not been widely adopted. This is despite a growing recognition of the vulnerabilities of the investigative and prosecutorial stages of alleged sexual assaults. In the context of “high risk” sexual assault consultations, the notion of safety refers not only to the risk of patient morbidity and mortality, but also to physical, psychological and judicial outcomes that affect patients, staff, and the wider community. This article identifies the latent threats present in sexual assault consultations and suggests a conceptual framework for application of Threat and Error Management in this specialised area of medicine. This will enable practitioners to be better equipped to recognise the risks and improve the performance and safety of sexual assault consultation processes. In an era of growing medicolegal concerns regarding issues such as environmental safety and the potential for contamination of cases, focussing on education and safety culture components within the investigative systems will allow sexual assault consultation processes to progress towards a new level of organisational reliability.

  18. Development of a list of high-risk operations for patients 65 years and older.

    PubMed

    Schwarze, Margaret L; Barnato, Amber E; Rathouz, Paul J; Zhao, Qianqian; Neuman, Heather B; Winslow, Emily R; Kennedy, Gregory D; Hu, Yue-Yung; Dodgion, Christopher M; Kwok, Alvin C; Greenberg, Caprice C

    2015-04-01

    No consensus exists regarding the definition of high-risk surgery in older adults. An inclusive and precise definition of high-risk surgery may be useful for surgeons, patients, researchers, and hospitals. To develop a list of high-risk operations. Retrospective cohort study and modified Delphi procedure. The setting included all Pennsylvania acute care hospitals (Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council [PHC4] April 1, 2001, to December 31, 2007) and a nationally representative sample of US acute care hospitals (Nationwide Inpatient Sample [NIS], Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2006). Patients included were those 65 years and older admitted to PHC4 hospitals and those 18 years and older admitted to NIS hospitals. We identified International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) procedure codes associated with at least 1% inpatient mortality in the PHC4. We used a modified Delphi procedure with 5 board-certified surgeons to further refine this list by excluding nonoperative procedures and operations that were unlikely to be the proximate cause of mortality and were instead a marker of critical illness (eg, tracheostomy). We then cross-validated this list of ICD-9-CM codes in the NIS. Modified Delphi procedure consensus of at least 4 of 5 panelists and proportion agreement in the NIS. Among 4,739,522 admissions of patients 65 years and older in the PHC4, a total of 2,569,589 involved a procedure, encompassing 2853 unique procedures. Of 1130 procedures associated with a crude inpatient mortality of at least 1%, 264 achieved consensus as high-risk operations by the modified Delphi procedure. The observed inpatient mortality in the NIS was at least 1% for 227 of 264 procedures (86%) in patients 65 years and older. The pooled inpatient mortality for these identified high-risk procedures performed on patients 65 years and older was double

  19. ORGANOPHOSPHATE PESTICIDE EXPOSURES - WHERE ARE THE HIGH RISK CHILDREN?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Methods to identify children at high-risk for organophosphate (OP) pesticide exposure are difficult to develop because biological markers reflect only recent "snapshots" of exposure due to the short half-life of OP compounds (generally about 24 hours). We conducted a series of p...

  20. Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

    2015-01-01

    Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

  1. Blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio identifies a high-risk but potentially reversible form of renal dysfunction in patients with decompensated heart failure.

    PubMed

    Brisco, Meredith A; Coca, Steven G; Chen, Jennifer; Owens, Anjali Tiku; McCauley, Brian D; Kimmel, Stephen E; Testani, Jeffrey M

    2013-03-01

    Identifying reversible renal dysfunction (RD) in the setting of heart failure is challenging. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether elevated admission blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) could identify decompensated heart failure patients likely to experience improvement in renal function (IRF) with treatment. Consecutive hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of heart failure were reviewed. IRF was defined as ≥20% increase and worsening renal function as ≥20% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. IRF occurred in 31% of the 896 patients meeting eligibility criteria. Higher admission BUN/Cr was associated with in-hospital IRF (odds ratio, 1.5 per 10 increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.8; P<0.001), an association persisting after adjustment for baseline characteristics (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; P=0.004). However, higher admission BUN/Cr was also associated with post-discharge worsening renal function (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; P=0.011). Notably, in patients with an elevated admission BUN/Cr, the risk of death associated with RD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45) was substantial (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.1; P<0.001). However, in patients with a normal admission BUN/Cr, RD was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.67-2.0; P=0.59; p interaction=0.03). An elevated admission BUN/Cr identifies decompensated patients with heart failure likely to experience IRF with treatment, providing proof of concept that reversible RD may be a discernible entity. However, this improvement seems to be largely transient, and RD, in the setting of an elevated BUN/Cr, remains strongly associated with death. Further research is warranted to develop strategies for the optimal detection and treatment of these high-risk patients.

  2. HumanMethylation450K Array–Identified Biomarkers Predict Tumour Recurrence/Progression at Initial Diagnosis of High-risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kitchen, Mark O; Bryan, Richard T; Emes, Richard D; Luscombe, Christopher J; Cheng, KK; Zeegers, Maurice P; James, Nicholas D; Gommersall, Lyndon M; Fryer, Anthony A

    2018-01-01

    Background: High-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) is a clinically unpredictable disease. Despite clinical risk estimation tools, many patients are undertreated with intra-vesical therapies alone, whereas others may be over-treated with early radical surgery. Molecular biomarkers, particularly DNA methylation, have been reported as predictive of tumour/patient outcomes in numerous solid organ and haematologic malignancies; however, there are few reports in HR-NMIBC and none using genome-wide array assessment. We therefore sought to identify novel DNA methylation markers of HR-NMIBC clinical outcomes that might predict tumour behaviour at initial diagnosis and help guide patient management. Patients and methods: A total of 21 primary initial diagnosis HR-NMIBC tumours were analysed by Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip arrays and subsequently bisulphite Pyrosequencing. In all, 7 had not recurred at 1 year after resection and 14 had recurred and/or progressed despite intra-vesical BCG. A further independent cohort of 32 HR-NMIBC tumours (17 no recurrence and 15 recurrence and/or progression despite BCG) were also assessed by bisulphite Pyrosequencing. Results: Array analyses identified 206 CpG loci that segregated non-recurrent HR-NMIBC tumours from clinically more aggressive recurrence/progression tumours. Hypermethylation of CpG cg11850659 and hypomethylation of CpG cg01149192 in combination predicted HR-NMIBC recurrence and/or progression within 1 year of diagnosis with 83% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 83% positive and 79% negative predictive values. Conclusions: This is the first genome-wide DNA methylation analysis of a unique HR-NMIBC tumour cohort encompassing known 1-year clinical outcomes. Our analyses identified potential novel epigenetic markers that could help guide individual patient management in this clinically unpredictable disease. PMID:29343995

  3. Relationship between Background Parenchymal Enhancement on High-risk Screening MRI and Future Breast Cancer Risk.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Lars J; Saha, Ashirbani; Ghate, Sujata V; Kim, Connie; Soo, Mary Scott; Yoon, Sora C; Mazurowski, Maciej A

    2018-03-27

    To determine if background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) on screening breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high-risk women correlates with future cancer. All screening breast MRIs (n = 1039) in high-risk women at our institution from August 1, 2004, to July 30, 2013, were identified. Sixty-one patients who subsequently developed breast cancer were matched 1:2 by age and high-risk indication with patients who did not develop breast cancer (n = 122). Five fellowship-trained breast radiologists independently recorded the BPE. The median reader BPE for each case was calculated and compared between the cancer and control cohorts. Cancer cohort patients were high-risk because of a history of radiation therapy (10%, 6 of 61), high-risk lesion (18%, 11 of 61), or breast cancer (30%, 18 of 61); BRCA mutation (18%, 11 of 61); or family history (25%, 15 of 61). Subsequent malignancies were invasive ductal carcinoma (64%, 39 of 61), ductal carcinoma in situ (30%, 18 of 61) and invasive lobular carcinoma (7%, 4of 61). BPE was significantly higher in the cancer cohort than in the control cohort (P = 0.01). Women with mild, moderate, or marked BPE were 2.5 times more likely to develop breast cancer than women with minimal BPE (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-4.8, P = .005). There was fair interreader agreement (κ = 0.39). High-risk women with greater than minimal BPE at screening MRI have increased risk of future breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk: thai epidemiologic stroke study.

    PubMed

    Hanchaiphiboolkul, Suchat; Puthkhao, Pimchanok; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tasanee; Wangphonphatthanasiri, Khwanrat; Termglinchan, Thanes; Nidhinandana, Samart; Suwanwela, Nijasri Charnnarong; Poungvarin, Niphon

    2014-08-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the factors predicting high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on a risk score, and among the risk factors comprising the risk score, which factors had a greater impact on the estimated risk. Thai Epidemiologic Stroke study was a community-based cohort study, which recruited participants from the general population from 5 regions of Thailand. Cross-sectional baseline data of 16,611 participants aged 45-69 years who had no history of stroke were included in this analysis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of high estimated 10-year stroke risk based on the risk score of the Japan Public Health Center Study, which estimated the projected 10-year risk of incident stroke. Educational level, low personal income, occupation, geographic area, alcohol consumption, and hypercholesterolemia were significantly associated with high estimated 10-year stroke risk. Among these factors, unemployed/house work class had the highest odds ratio (OR, 3.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.47-5.69) followed by illiterate class (OR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.44-3.66). Among risk factors comprising the risk score, the greatest impact as a stroke risk factor corresponded to age, followed by male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Socioeconomic status, in particular, unemployed/house work and illiterate class, might be good proxy to identify the individuals at higher risk of stroke. The most powerful risk factors were older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, and current smoking. Copyright © 2014 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Utility of the HARP Diabetes Risk Calculator in Identifying Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at Risk of Unplanned Hospital Presentations.

    PubMed

    McGrath, Rachel T; Dryden, Justin C; Newlyn, Neroli; Pamplona, Elline; O'Dea, Judy; Hocking, Samantha L; Glastras, Sarah J; Fulcher, Gregory R

    2018-03-31

    Prevention of hospitalisation is an important aspect of type 2 diabetes (T2D) management. We retrospectively determined the utility of the Hospital Admission Risk Programme (HARP) Diabetes Risk Calculator (HARP tool) in identifying patients with T2D more likely to have unplanned hospital presentations. The HARP tool includes a clinical assessment score (Part A) and a psychosocial and self-management impact score (Part B), and categorises patients into low, medium, high or urgent risk of acute hospitalisation. It was completed for T2D patients attending Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney in 2013. Within the cohort of 278 patients (age 65.3 ± 10.5 years; 62.9% male; diabetes duration 10.7 ± 6.6 years), 67.3% were classified as low risk, 32.7% as medium risk and none as high or urgent risk. Following adjustment for confounders, a medium HARP score was associated with a 3.1-fold increased risk of unplanned hospital presentations in the subsequent 12 months (95% CI: 1.35 to 7.31; p = 0.008). Part A scores were significantly higher for patients that presented to hospital compared to those that did not (14.2 ± 6.8 vs. 11.4 ± 5.5; p = 0.034), whereas there was no difference in Part B scores (p = 0.860). In patients with low and medium HARP scores, clinical features were more predictive of hospital presentations than certain psychosocial or self-management factors in the cohort. Further studies are required to characterise unplanned hospitalisation in patients with higher HARP scores, or whether additional psychosocial assessments could improve the tool's predictability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  6. Identifying mortality risks in patients with opioid use disorder using brief screening assessment: Secondary mental health clinical records analysis.

    PubMed

    Bogdanowicz, Karolina Magda; Stewart, Robert; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Downs, Johnny; Khondoker, Mizanur; Shetty, Hitesh; Strang, John; Hayes, Richard Derek

    2016-07-01

    Risk assessments are widely used, but their ability to predict outcomes in opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment remains unclear. Therefore, the aim was to investigate if addiction-specific brief risk screening is effective in identifying high mortality risk groups and if subsequent clinical actions following risk assessment impacts on mortality levels. Opioid use disorder (OUD) patients were identified in the South London and Maudsley Case Register. Deaths were identified through database linkage to the national mortality dataset. Cox and competing-risk regression were used to model associations between brief risk assessment domains and all-cause and overdose mortality in 4488 OUD patients, with up-to 6-year follow-up time where 227 deaths were registered. Data were stratified by admission to general mental health services. All-cause mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and clinically appraised likelihood of accidental overdose (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.00-2.19). Overdose-mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (SHR 2.52, 95% CI 1.11-5.70) and clinically appraised suicidality (SHR 2.89, 95% CI 1.38-6.03). Suicidality was associated with a twofold increase in mortality risk among OUD patients who were not admitted to mental health services within 2 months of their risk assessment (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.67-3.24). Diagnosis-specific brief risk screening can identify OUD patient subgroups at increased risk of all-cause and overdose mortality. OUD patients, where suicidality is evident, who are not admitted into services are particularly vulnerable. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. A newly identified group of adolescents at "invisible" risk for psychopathology and suicidal behavior: findings from the SEYLE study.

    PubMed

    Carli, Vladimir; Hoven, Christina W; Wasserman, Camilla; Chiesa, Flaminia; Guffanti, Guia; Sarchiapone, Marco; Apter, Alan; Balazs, Judit; Brunner, Romuald; Corcoran, Paul; Cosman, Doina; Haring, Christian; Iosue, Miriam; Kaess, Michael; Kahn, Jean Pierre; Keeley, Helen; Postuvan, Vita; Saiz, Pilar; Varnik, Airi; Wasserman, Danuta

    2014-02-01

    This study explored the prevalence of risk behaviors (excessive alcohol use, illegal drug use, heavy smoking, reduced sleep, overweight, underweight, sedentary behavior, high use of Internet/TV/videogames for reasons not related to school or work, and truancy), and their association with psychopathology and self-destructive behaviors, in a sample of 12,395 adolescents recruited in randomly selected schools across 11 European countries. Latent class analysis identified three groups of adolescents: a low-risk group (57.8%) including pupils with low or very low frequency of risk behaviors; a high-risk group (13.2%) including pupils who scored high on all risk behaviors, and a third group ("invisible" risk, 29%) including pupils who were positive for high use of Internet/TV/videogames for reasons not related to school or work, sedentary behavior and reduced sleep. Pupils in the "invisible" risk group, compared with the high-risk group, had a similar prevalence of suicidal thoughts (42.2% vs. 44%), anxiety (8% vs. 9.2%), subthreshold depression (33.2% vs. 34%) and depression (13.4% vs. 14.7%). The prevalence of suicide attempts was 5.9% in the "invisible" group, 10.1% in the high-risk group and 1.7% in the low-risk group. The prevalence of all risk behaviors increased with age and most of them were significantly more frequent among boys. Girls were significantly more likely to experience internalizing (emotional) psychiatric symptoms. The "invisible" group may represent an important new intervention target group for potentially reducing psychopathology and other untoward outcomes in adolescence, including suicidal behavior. Copyright © 2014 World Psychiatric Association.

  8. The profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city.

    PubMed

    Yassin, Shadia A T; Gamal El-Deen, Amany A; Emam, Mohamed A; Omer, Abeer K F

    2005-01-01

    Proper screening techniques should be used for all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics to pick up the factors that qualify the pregnant women for a risky pregnancy. High-risk pregnancy identification is a challenging work. This study aimed to describe the profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city. The study was conducted on 750 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in three hospitals in El-Mansoura city, where 250 women were chosen from each setting. A modified version of Morrison and Olsen (1979) high risk scoring inventory tool was used to collect the socioeconomic, biological, medical, reproductive and current pregnancy risk factors in the study sample. It also assessed the risk level whether low, moderate or high. The results revealed that among all women, 63.8% of the sample were at a high-risk, while 25.0 % of them were at a moderate-risk and only 11.2% were at low-risk. About 70.0% of the high-risk pregnant women were in their third trimester followed by 23.0% in the second trimester and only 7.1% were in the first trimester. About 5.9% of the women were at a high-risk because of polluted housing condition, 1.9% because of heart diseases Class capital I, Ukrainian or II, 5.2% because of diabetes mellitus, 4.2% because of hypertension and 14.9% because of previous cesarean section. On the other hand 14.8% women were at moderate risk because of their illiteracy, 29.2% of them for being short, 14.7%, 10.6% of them because of being teenagers or over 35 years of age, respectively, 12.6% of because they had a history of gestational diabetes and 32.8%of them because of anemia, 23.2% because urinary tract infection, 16.9% because of albuminuria, and 12.0% because of glucoseuria. Finally identifying the profile of high -risk pregnancy women is mandatory.

  9. Rapid COJEC Induction Therapy for High-risk Neuroblastoma Patients - Cochrane Review.

    PubMed

    Peinemann, F; van Dalen, E C; Berthold, F

    2016-04-01

    Neuroblastoma is a rare malignant disease and patients with high-risk neuroblastoma have a poor prognosis. Rapid COJEC induction chemotherapy means (almost) the same total doses given within a shorter time period. In theory, rapid COJEC could reduce the risk of drug resistance and it has been considered as a potential candidate for improving the outcome. The objective was to evaluate effects of rapid COJEC compared to standard induction chemotherapy in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. We searched the databases CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE from inception to 11 November 2014 and included randomized controlled trials. We identified one relevant randomized controlled trial with 130 participants receiving rapid COJEC and 132 participants receiving standard OPEC/COJEC induction chemotherapy. There was no statistically significant difference between the treatment groups in complete response (risk ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.38, P=0.94) and treatment-related mortality (risk ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 4.39, P=0.77). A statistically significant difference in favor of the standard treatment arm was identified for the following early toxicities: febrile neutropenia, septicemia, and renal toxicity. The differences in complete response and treatment-related mortality between treatment alternatives were not statistically significantly different. Based on the currently available evidence, we are uncertain about the effects of rapid COJEC induction chemotherapy in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  10. Relationships as Risk: High risk sex, Substance Abuse, and Violence among Hispanic Men who have Sex with Men

    PubMed Central

    De Santis, Joseph P.; Vasquez, Elias Provencio; Deleon, Diego A.; Gonzalez-Guarda, Rosa M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) experience a number of health disparities including high rates of HIV from high risk sex. High rates of HIV infection are related to high risk sexual behaviors and multiple sexual partners. High rates of HIV infection in this population also may be related to high risk sexual behaviors that occur within the context of primary relationships. However, relatively little is know about about relationships among Hispanic MSM. In addition, little is known about the factors that contribute to risk within these primary relationships. Aims The purpose of this study is to use qualitative methods to explore the factors responsible for high risk sexual behavior within primary relationships among Hispanic MSM. Methods Twenty Hispanic MSM were recruited from various community sites in South Florida to participate in auditotaped focus groups. Data from the focus groups were transcribed and analyzed using content analysis. Data were collected until saturation was achieved. Results Participants identified a number of topics that contribute to risk: drugs/alcohol as risk, outside sex as risk, concealment of HIV infection, violence as risk, consensual and non-consensual sexual violence, and absent family support. Participants also described the relationship of sexual risk, substance abuse, and violence in the context of Hispanic MSM relationships. Conclusions The results of the study provided some important clinical implications for clinicians providing care to Hispanic MSM. From the results of this study, directions for future research focused on the relationships of Hispanic MSM are evident. PMID:25242861

  11. Genome-wide pathway-based association analysis identifies risk pathways associated with Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Mingming; Mu, Hongbo; Shang, Zhenwei; Kang, Kai; Lv, Hongchao; Duan, Lian; Li, Jin; Chen, Xinren; Teng, Yanbo; Jiang, Yongshuai; Zhang, Ruijie

    2017-01-06

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease. It is generally believed that it is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, but the precise pathogenesis of PD is unknown to date. In this study, we performed a pathway analysis based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) to detect risk pathways of PD in three GWAS datasets. We first mapped all SNP markers to autosomal genes in each GWAS dataset. Then, we evaluated gene risk values using the minimum P-value of the tagSNPs. We took a pathway as a unit to identify the risk pathways based on the cumulative risks of the genes in the pathway. Finally, we combine the analysis results of the three datasets to detect the high risk pathways associated with PD. We found there were five same pathways in the three datasets. Besides, we also found there were five pathways which were shared in two datasets. Most of these pathways are associated with nervoussystem. Five pathways had been reported to be PD-related pathways in the previous literature. Our findings also implied that there was a close association between immune response and PD. Continued investigation of these pathways will further help us explain the pathogenesis of PD. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Acute kidney injury subphenotypes based on creatinine trajectory identifies patients at increased risk of death.

    PubMed

    Bhatraju, Pavan K; Mukherjee, Paramita; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; O'Keefe, Grant E; Frank, Angela J; Christie, Jason D; Meyer, Nuala J; Liu, Kathleen D; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Wurfel, Mark M

    2016-11-17

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AKI is highly heterogeneous, with variable links to poor outcomes. Current approaches to classify AKI severity and identify patients at highest risk for poor outcomes focus on the maximum change in serum creatinine (SCr) values. However, these scores are hampered by the need for a reliable baseline SCr value and the absence of a component differentiating transient from persistent rises in SCr. We hypothesized that identification of resolving or nonresolving AKI subphenotypes based on the early trajectory of SCr values in the ICU would better differentiate patients at risk of hospital mortality. We performed a secondary analysis of two prospective studies of ICU patients admitted to a trauma ICU (group 1; n = 1914) or general medical-surgical ICUs (group 2; n = 1867). In group 1, we tested definitions for resolving and nonresolving AKI subphenotypes and selected the definitions resulting in subphenotypes with the greatest separation in risk of death relative to non-AKI controls. We applied this definition to group 2 and tested whether the subphenotypes were independently associated with hospital mortality after adjustment for AKI severity. AKI occurred in 46% and 69% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively. In group 1, a resolving AKI subphenotype (defined as a decrease in SCr of 0.3 mg/dl or 25% from maximum in the first 72 h of study enrollment) was associated with a low risk of death. A nonresolving AKI subphenotype (defined as all AKI cases not meeting the "resolving" definition) was associated with a high risk of death. In group 2, the resolving AKI subphenotype was not associated with increased mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.17), whereas the nonresolving AKI subphenotype was associated with higher mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15-2.44) even after adjustment for AKI severity stage. The trajectory of SCr levels identifies AKI subphenotypes with different

  13. Dietary screening tool identifies nutritional risk in older adults123

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Paige E; Mitchell, Diane C; Hartman, Terryl J; Lawrence, Frank R; Sempos, Christopher T; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen

    2009-01-01

    Background: No rapid methods exist for screening overall dietary intakes in older adults. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a scoring system for a diet screening tool to identify nutritional risk in community-dwelling older adults. Design: This cross-sectional study in older adults (n = 204) who reside in rural areas examined nutrition status by using an in-person interview, biochemical measures, and four 24-h recalls that included the use of dietary supplements. Results: The dietary screening tool was able to characterize 3 levels of nutritional risk: at risk, possible risk, and not at risk. Individuals classified as at nutritional risk had significantly lower indicators of diet quality (Healthy Eating Index and Mean Adequacy Ratio) and intakes of protein, most micronutrients, dietary fiber, fruit, and vegetables. The at-risk group had higher intakes of fats and oils and refined grains. The at-risk group also had the lowest serum vitamin B-12, folate, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, and zeaxanthin concentrations. The not-at-nutritional-risk group had significantly higher lycopene and β-carotene and lower homocysteine and methylmalonic acid concentrations. Conclusion: The dietary screening tool is a simple and practical tool that can help to detect nutritional risk in older adults. PMID:19458013

  14. Grades and Graduation: A Longitudinal Risk Perspective to Identify Student Dropouts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowers, Alex J.

    2010-01-01

    Studies of student risk of school dropout have shown that present predictors of at-risk status do not accurately identify a large percentage of students who eventually drop out. Through the analysis of the entire Grade 1-12 longitudinal cohort-based grading histories of the class of 2006 for two school districts in the United States, the author…

  15. Developing and Validation of Identifying People in Risk of Addiction Questionnaire (I.P.R.A)

    PubMed Central

    Anisi, Jafar; Bahadori, Mohammad Hossein; Jahanbakhsh, Marziyeh

    2013-01-01

    Background Drug addiction is considered as a problem of the new century which has destructive consequences for both family and society. This ominous phenomenon resulted from many factors. Present research aimed at recognition of inter-personal factors related to addiction and were conducted through a questionnaire to identify the youths at risk of addiction. Objectives Present research aimed at recognition of inter-personal factors related to addiction and were conducted through a questionnaire to identify the youths at risk of addiction. Materials and Methods The design of the present research is correlational analytic. The population consists of all young addicted or non-addicted people between the ages 18 to 35 and the sample consists of 82 addicted and 223 non-addicted young people in Tehran who were selected randomly and simply. The initial form included 120 questions which were administered on the sample in three stages. The data was analyzed through descriptive statistic and factor analysis. Results In this questionnaire four factors of depression and miserableness, having a positive attitude to drug, stress and anxiety and finally seeking high levels of excitement were respectively the strongest factors in predicting the risk of drug-abuse and addiction. The validity of the questionnaire which consists of 75 questions in the final form was calculated through internal consistency. Cronbach alpha of the whole questionnaire was 0.97, which that of the factor of depression and miserableness was 0.96, the factor of a positive attitude to drug was 0.93, the factor of stress and anxiety was 0.90 and the factor of high excitement-seeking was 0.80. Conclusions The evaluation of the questionnaire for identifying the individuals in the risk of addiction showed that the questionnaire benefits from appropriate validity and reliability. Therefore, it can be used in preventive fields and research. Moreover, by illuminating interpersonal factors that are effective in drug

  16. A systematic review of economic models used to assess the cost-effectiveness of strategies for identifying latent tuberculosis in high-risk groups.

    PubMed

    Auguste, Peter; Tsertsvadze, Alexander; Court, Rachel; Pink, Joshua

    2016-07-01

    Timely diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) through screening remains a key public health priority. Although globally it is recommended to screen people at high risk of developing TB, the economic evidence underpinning these recommendations is limited. This review critically appraised studies that had used a decision-analytical modelling framework to estimate the cost-effectiveness of interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) compared to tuberculin skin test (TST) for detecting LTBI in high risk populations. A comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, NHS-EED was undertaken from 2009 up to June 2015. Studies were screened and extracted by independent reviewers. The study quality was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and the Philips' checklist, respectively. A narrative synthesis of the included studies was undertaken. Ten studies were included in this review. Two economic evaluations were conducted in a child population, six in an immunocompromised population and two in a recently arrived population from a country with a high incidence of TB. Most studies (n = 7) used a decision tree structure with Markov nodes. In general, all models were clearly described in terms of reporting quality, but were subject to limitations to structure and model inputs. Models have not elaborated on their setting or the perspective of the studies was not consistent with their analyses. Other concerns were related to derivation of prevalence, test accuracy and transition probabilities. Current methods available highlight limitations in the clinical effectiveness literature, model structures and assumptions, which impact on the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results. These models available are useful, but limited on the information that can be used to inform on future cost-effectiveness analysis. Until consideration is given on deriving the performance of tests used to identify LTBI that progresses to

  17. Pre-onset risk characteristics for mania among young people at clinical high risk for psychosis.

    PubMed

    Ratheesh, Aswin; Cotton, Susan M; Davey, Christopher G; Lin, Ashleigh; Wood, Stephen; Yuen, Hok Pan; Bechdolf, Andreas; McGorry, Patrick D; Yung, Alison; Berk, Michael; Nelson, Barnaby

    2018-02-01

    Psychosis and mania share conceptual, genetic and clinical features, which suggest the possibility that they have common antecedents. Participants identified to be at-risk for psychosis might also be at-risk for mania. We aimed to identify the rate and predictors of transition to mania in a cohort of youth with clinical or familial risk for psychosis. Among a cohort of 416 young people with an at-risk mental state for psychosis defined using the Ultra-High-Risk (UHR) criteria, 74.7% were followed up between 5 and 13years from their baseline assessment. We undertook a matched case-control examination of those who developed mania over the follow-up period compared to those who did not develop mania or psychosis. Transition to mania was determined using either a structured clinical interview, or diagnoses from a state-wide public mental health contact registry. Clinical characteristics and risk factors were examined at baseline using information from structured interviews, clinical file notes, rating scales and unstructured assessments. Eighteen participants developed mania (UHR-Manic transition or UHR-M, 4.3%). In comparison with participants matched on age, gender and baseline-study who developed neither mania nor psychosis, more UHR-M participants had subthreshold manic symptoms or were prescribed antidepressants at baseline. They also had lower global functioning. In addition to the UHR criteria, features such as subthreshold manic symptoms and antidepressant use may help identify at-risk groups that predict the onset of mania in addition to transition to psychosis. Presence of manic symptoms may also indicate syndrome specificity early in the prodromal phase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: research progress and challenges.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yingsong; Totsuka, Yukari; Shan, Baoen; Wang, Chaochen; Wei, Wenqiang; Qiao, Youlin; Kikuchi, Shogo; Inoue, Manami; Tanaka, Hideo; He, Yutong

    2017-03-01

    The extremely high incidence of esophageal cancer in certain rural areas of China has prompted significant intellectual curiosity and research efforts both in China and abroad. We summarize the research progress over the past several decades in high-risk areas (Linxian, Cixian, Shexian, and Yanting) based on literature research and our field trip (2012-2013). Considerable progress in clarifying the environmental risk factors and pathogenesis of esophageal cancer in high-risk areas has been achieved over the past several decades. Epidemiologic evidence suggests that carcinogen exposure and nutritional deficiency, rather than smoking and drinking, may be the major risk factors for esophageal cancer in the Taihang Mountains region, where the incidence of esophageal cancer is among the highest in the world. Two genome-wide association studies have identified variants in PLCE1 at 10q23 that are significantly associated with esophageal cancer risk. Recent whole-exome studies have revealed a comprehensive mutation pattern, in which the C>T transition is the predominant mutation type. Despite extensive research, the main causative factors that contribute to esophageal cancer in high-risk areas have not yet been elucidated. Challenges in this research area include determining the causative role of nitrosamine, identifying other potential carcinogens, and conducting fruitful international collaborative studies based on a multidisciplinary approach. Increased international collaboration will contribute to a better understanding of the etiology of esophageal cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Use of a national hospitalization register to identify industrial sectors carrying high risk of severe injuries: a three-year cohort study of more than 900,000 Danish men.

    PubMed

    Baarts, C; Mikkelsen, K L; Hannerz, H; Tüchsen, F

    2000-12-01

    Data indicates that Denmark has relatively high risks of occupational injuries. We evaluated all injuries resulting in hospitalization by occupation. All gainfully employed men younger than 60 in 1990 were divided into 47 industrial groups and followed using the National Inpatient Registry, for hospitalized injuries 1991-1993. Following ICD-8, injuries were grouped into six categories: head, upper extremities, back, trunk, lower extremities and ruptures, sprains and strains. Standardized industrial hospitalization ratios (SHRs) were calculated and Pearson's independence test was performed for each category. Industrial differences were ascertained for each injury category. The highest associated injury category was upper extremity injuries ranging from SHR = 43 (fire services and salvage corps) to SHR = 209 (slaughterhouse industry). Carpentry, joinery, bricklaying and construction work had significantly high SHRs for all injury categories, whereas administrative work was significantly low throughout. Occupational surveillance systems based on hospitalized injuries can be used to identify high-risk industries, and thereby suggest where to direct prevention efforts. Copyright 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

  1. An extensive molecular cytogenetic characterization in high-risk chronic lymphocytic leukemia identifies karyotype aberrations and TP53 disruption as predictors of outcome and chemorefractoriness

    PubMed Central

    Cavallari, Maurizio; Quaglia, Francesca Maria; Lista, Enrico; Urso, Antonio; Guardalben, Emanuele; Martinelli, Sara; Saccenti, Elena; Bassi, Cristian; Lupini, Laura; Bardi, Maria Antonella; Volta, Eleonora; Tammiso, Elisa; Melandri, Aurora; Negrini, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    We investigated whether karyotype analysis and mutational screening by next generation sequencing could predict outcome in 101 newly diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients with high-risk features, as defined by the presence of unmutated IGHV gene and/or 11q22/17p13 deletion by FISH and/or TP53 mutations. Cytogenetic analysis showed favorable findings (normal karyotype and isolated 13q14 deletion) in 30 patients, unfavorable (complex karyotype and/or 17p13/11q22 deletion) in 34 cases and intermediate (all other abnormalities) in 36 cases. A complex karyotype was present in 21 patients. Mutations were detected in 56 cases and were associated with unmutated IGHV status (p = 0.040) and complex karyotype (p = 0.047). TP53 disruption (i.e. TP53 mutations and/or 17p13 deletion by FISH) correlated with the presence of ≥ 2 mutations (p = 0.001) and a complex karyotype (p = 0.012). By multivariate analysis, an advanced Binet stage (p < 0.001) and an unfavorable karyotype (p = 0.001) predicted a shorter time to first treatment. TP53 disruption (p = 0.019) and the unfavorable karyotype (p = 0.028) predicted a worse overall survival. A shorter time to chemorefractoriness was associated with TP53 disruption (p = 0.001) and unfavorable karyotype (p = 0.025). Patients with both unfavorable karyotype and TP53 disruption presented a dismal outcome (median overall survival and time to chemorefractoriness of 28.7 and 15.0 months, respectively). In conclusion, karyotype analysis refines risk stratification in high-risk CLL patients and could identify a subset of patients with highly unfavorable outcome requiring alternative treatments. PMID:28427204

  2. Is RNASEL:p.Glu265* a modifier of early-onset breast cancer risk for carriers of high-risk mutations?

    PubMed

    Nguyen-Dumont, Tú; Teo, Zhi L; Hammet, Fleur; Roberge, Alexis; Mahmoodi, Maryam; Tsimiklis, Helen; Park, Daniel J; Pope, Bernard J; Lonie, Andrew; Kapuscinski, Miroslav K; Mahmood, Khalid; Goldgar, David E; Giles, Graham G; Winship, Ingrid; Hopper, John L; Southey, Melissa C

    2018-02-08

    Breast cancer risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic mutation carriers is modified by risk factors that cluster in families, including genetic modifiers of risk. We considered genetic modifiers of risk for carriers of high-risk mutations in other breast cancer susceptibility genes. In a family known to carry the high-risk mutation PALB2:c.3113G>A (p.Trp1038*), whole-exome sequencing was performed on germline DNA from four affected women, three of whom were mutation carriers. RNASEL:p.Glu265* was identified in one of the PALB2 carriers who had two primary invasive breast cancer diagnoses before 50 years. Gene-panel testing of BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2 and RNASEL in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry identified five carriers of RNASEL:p.Glu265* in 591 early onset breast cancer cases. Three of the five women (60%) carrying RNASEL:p.Glu265* also carried a pathogenic mutation in a breast cancer susceptibility gene compared with 30 carriers of pathogenic mutations in the 586 non-carriers of RNASEL:p.Glu265* (5%) (p < 0.002). Taqman genotyping demonstrated that the allele frequency of RNASEL:p.Glu265* was similar in affected and unaffected Australian women, consistent with other populations. Our study suggests that RNASEL:p.Glu265* may be a genetic modifier of risk for early-onset breast cancer predisposition in carriers of high-risk mutations. Much larger case-case and case-control studies are warranted to test the association observed in this report.

  3. High- and Low-Risk Characteristics of Youth: The Five Cs of Competency.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McWhirter, J. Jeffries; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Identifies and discusses five basic skill strengths or skill deficits that mark critical difference between low-risk and high-risk youth. The "Five Cs of Competency" described include critical school competencies, concept of self and self-esteem, communication skills, coping ability, and control. Contends that these characteristics discriminate…

  4. Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

    PubMed

    Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

    2013-10-01

    Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

  5. Using administrative data to identify U.S. Army soldiers at high-risk of perpetrating minor violent crimes

    PubMed Central

    Rosellini, Anthony J.; Monahan, John; Street, Amy E.; Hill, Eric D.; Petukhova, Maria; Reis, Ben Y.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Benedek, David M.; Bliese, Paul; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Kessler, Ronald C.

    2016-01-01

    Growing concerns exist about violent crimes perpetrated by U.S. military personnel. Although interventions exist to reduce violent crimes in high-risk populations, optimal implementation requires evidence-based targeting. The goal of the current study was to use machine learning methods (stepwise and penalized regression; random forests) to develop models to predict minor violent crime perpetration among U.S. Army soldiers. Predictors were abstracted from administrative data available for all 975,057 soldiers in the U.S. Army 2004–2009, among whom 25,966 men and 2,728 women committed a first founded minor violent crime (simple assault, blackmail-extortion-intimidation, rioting, harassment). Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build separate male and female prediction models that were then tested in an independent 2011–2013 sample. Final model predictors included young age, low education, early career stage, prior crime involvement, and outpatient treatment for diverse emotional and substance use problems. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (for men and women) in the 2004–2009 training sample and 0.74–0.82 (men-women) in the 2011–2013 test sample. 30.5–28.9% (men-women) of all administratively-recorded crimes in 2004–2009 were committed by the 5% of soldiers having highest predicted risk, with similar proportions (28.5–29.0%) when the 2004–2009 coefficients were applied to the 2011–2013 test sample. These results suggest that it may be possible to target soldiers at high-risk of violence perpetration for preventive interventions, although final decisions about such interventions would require weighing predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks. PMID:27741501

  6. Using administrative data to identify U.S. Army soldiers at high-risk of perpetrating minor violent crimes.

    PubMed

    Rosellini, Anthony J; Monahan, John; Street, Amy E; Hill, Eric D; Petukhova, Maria; Reis, Ben Y; Sampson, Nancy A; Benedek, David M; Bliese, Paul; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Kessler, Ronald C

    2017-01-01

    Growing concerns exist about violent crimes perpetrated by U.S. military personnel. Although interventions exist to reduce violent crimes in high-risk populations, optimal implementation requires evidence-based targeting. The goal of the current study was to use machine learning methods (stepwise and penalized regression; random forests) to develop models to predict minor violent crime perpetration among U.S. Army soldiers. Predictors were abstracted from administrative data available for all 975,057 soldiers in the U.S. Army 2004-2009, among whom 25,966 men and 2728 women committed a first founded minor violent crime (simple assault, blackmail-extortion-intimidation, rioting, harassment). Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build separate male and female prediction models that were then tested in an independent 2011-2013 sample. Final model predictors included young age, low education, early career stage, prior crime involvement, and outpatient treatment for diverse emotional and substance use problems. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79 (for men and women) in the 2004-2009 training sample and 0.74-0.82 (men-women) in the 2011-2013 test sample. 30.5-28.9% (men-women) of all administratively-recorded crimes in 2004-2009 were committed by the 5% of soldiers having highest predicted risk, with similar proportions (28.5-29.0%) when the 2004-2009 coefficients were applied to the 2011-2013 test sample. These results suggest that it may be possible to target soldiers at high-risk of violence perpetration for preventive interventions, although final decisions about such interventions would require weighing predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

  8. Using cross-game behavioral markers for early identification of high-risk internet gamblers.

    PubMed

    Braverman, Julia; LaPlante, Debi A; Nelson, Sarah E; Shaffer, Howard J

    2013-09-01

    Using actual gambling behavior provides the opportunity to develop behavioral markers that operators can use to predict the development of gambling-related problems among their subscribers. Participants were 4,056 Internet gamblers who subscribed to the Internet betting service provider bwin.party. Half of this sample included multiple platform gamblers who were identified by bwin.party's Responsible Gambling (RG) program; the other half were controls randomly selected from those who had the same first deposit date. Using the daily aggregated Internet betting transactions for gamblers' first 31 calendar days of online betting activities at bwin.party, we employed a 2-step analytic strategy: (a) applying an exploratory chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree method to identify characteristics that distinguished a subgroup of high-risk Internet gamblers from the rest of the sample, and (b) conducting a confirmatory analysis of those characteristics among an independent validation sample. This analysis identified two high-risk groups (i.e., groups in which 90% of the members were identified by bwin.party's RG program): Group 1 engaged in three or more gambling activities and evidenced high wager variability on casino-type games; Group 2 engaged in two different gambling activities and evidenced high variability for live action wagers. This analysis advances an ongoing research program to identify potentially problematic Internet gamblers during the earliest stages of their Internet gambling. Gambling providers and public policymakers can use these results to inform early intervention programs that target high-risk Internet gamblers. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Prenatal screening for psychosocial risks in a high risk-population in Peru using the KINDEX interview.

    PubMed

    Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

    2016-01-22

    Prenatal stress and other prenatal risk factors (e.g. intimate partner violence) have a negative impact on mother's health, fetal development as well as enduring adverse effects on the neuro-cognitive, behavioral and physical health of the child. Mothers of low socio-economic status and especially those living in crime-ridden areas are even more exposed to a host of risk factors. Societies of extreme violence, poverty and inequalities, often present difficulties to provide adequate mental health care to the most needed populations. The KINDEX, a brief standardized instrument that assesses 11 different risk factors was used by midwives to identify pregnant women at-risk, in a suburban area with one of the highest levels of domestic violence in Lima. The instrument was designed to be used by medical staff to identify high-risk child-bearing women and, based on the results, to refer them to the adequate psychological or social support providers. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychosocial screening using the KINDEX in a Latin American Country for the first time, and to explore the relationship of the KINDEX with thee major risk areas, maternal psychopathology, perceived stress and traumatic experiences. The study was conducted in cooperation with the gynecological department of a general hospital in a suburban area of Lima. Nine midwives conducted interviews using the KINDEX of ninety-five pregnant women attending the gynecological unit of the hospital. From these, forty pregnant women were re-interviewed by a clinical psychologist using established instruments in order to assess the feasibility of the prenatal assessment in public health settings and the relationship of the KINDEX with maternal perceived stress, psychopathology symptoms and trauma load during pregnancy. We found high rates of risk factors in the examined pregnant women comparable with those found in the general population. Significant correlations were found between the KINDEX

  10. Are Your Students Ready for Anatomy and Physiology? Developing Tools to Identify Students at Risk for Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

    2015-01-01

    High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online…

  11. Prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a risk factor at a tertiary care hospital.

    PubMed

    Mahmud, Ghazala; Abbas, Shazra

    2009-01-01

    HIV is an epidemic quite unlike any other, combining the problems of a lifelong medical disease with immense social, psychological, economic and public health consequences. Since we are living in a global village where human interactions has become fast and frequent, diseases like HIV are no more alien to us. HIV/AIDS in Pakistan is slowly gaining recognition as a public health issue of great importance. Objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a high risk factor/behaviour at a tertiary care hospital. It is a Descriptive study. All pregnant women attending antenatal booking clinic were assessed via a pre-designed 'Risk assessment questionnaire'. Women identified with a risk factor were offered HIV Rapid screening test (Capillus HIV1/2). Positive (reactive) results on screening test were confirmed with ELISA. During the study period (March 2007-May 2008), out of 5263 antenatal bookings 785 (14%) women were identified with a risk factor. HIV screening test was done in 779 (99%), and 6 women refused testing. Three women (0.3%) were found positive (reactive) on screening. Two out of 3 women were confirmed positive (0.2%) on ELISA. Husbands of both women were tested and one found positive (migrant from Dubai). Second women had history of blood transfusion. Her husband was HIV negative. During the study period, in addition to 2 pregnant women diagnosed as HIV positive through ANC risk screening, 6 confirmed HIV positive women, found pregnant were referred from 'HIV Treatment Centre', Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) to Prevention of Parent to Child Transmission (PPTCT) centre for obstetric care. Spouses of 5 out of 6 had history of working abroad and extramarital sexual relationships. All positive (8) women were referred to PPTCT centre for further management. A simple 'Risk Assessment Questionnaire' can help us in identifying women who need HIV screening. Sexual transmission still remains the

  12. Identifying high-risk medication: a systematic literature review.

    PubMed

    Saedder, Eva A; Brock, Birgitte; Nielsen, Lars Peter; Bonnerup, Dorthe K; Lisby, Marianne

    2014-06-01

    A medication error (ME) is an error that causes damage or poses a threat of harm to a patient. Several studies have shown that only a minority of MEs actually causes harm, and this might explain why medication reviews at hospital admission reduce the number of MEs without showing an effect on length of hospital stay, readmissions, or death. The purpose of this study was to define drugs that actually cause serious MEs. We conducted a literature search of medication reviews and other preventive efforts. A systematic search in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Reviews, Psycinfo, and SweMed+ was performed. Danish databases containing published patient complaints, patient compensation, and reported medication errors were also searched. Articles and case reports were included if they contained information of an ME causing a serious adverse reaction (AR) in a patient. Information concerning AR seriousness, causality, and preventability was required for inclusion. This systematic literature review revealed that 47 % of all serious MEs were caused by seven drugs or drug classes: methotrexate, warfarin, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), digoxin, opioids, acetylic salicylic acid, and beta-blockers; 30 drugs or drug classes caused 82 % of all serious MEs. The top ten drugs involved in fatal events accounted for 73 % of all drugs identified. Increasing focus on seven drugs/drug classes can potentially reduce hospitalizations, extended hospitalizations, disability, life-threatening conditions, and death by almost 50 %.

  13. Identification of key genes related to high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumors using bioinformatics analysis.

    PubMed

    Jin, Shuan; Zhu, Wenhua; Li, Jun

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify predictive biomarkers used for clinical therapy and prognostic evaluation of high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). In this study, microarray data GSE31802 were used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between high-risk GISTs and low-risk GISTs. Then, enrichment analysis of DEGs was conducted based on the gene ontology and kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes pathway database. In addition, the transcription factors and cancer-related genes in DEGs were screened according to the TRANSFAC, TSGene, and TAG database. Finally, protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed and analyzed to look for critical genes involved in high-risk GISTs. A total of forty DEGs were obtained and these genes were mainly involved in four pathways, including melanogenesis, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, malaria, and hematopoietic cell lineage. The enriched biological processes were related to the regulation of insulin secretion, integrin activation, and neuropeptide signaling pathway. Transcription factor analysis of DEGs indicated that POU domain, class 2, associating factor 1 (POU2AF1) was significantly downregulated in high-risk GISTs. By constructing the PPI network of DEGs, ten genes with high degrees formed local networks, such as PNOC, P2RY14, and SELP. Four genes as POU2AF1, PNOC, P2RY14, and SELP might be used as biomarkers for prognosis of high-risk GISTs.

  14. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture: complexity or simplicity? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Abrahamsen, Bo; Brixen, Kim

    2013-08-01

    A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence, and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance of each tool was sufficient for practical use, and last, to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified; 20 had been externally validated, however, only six tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable methodological quality. None of the tools performed consistently better than the others and simple tools (i.e., the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool [OST], Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument [ORAI], and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator [Garvan]) often did as well or better than more complex tools (i.e., Simple Calculated Risk Estimation Score [SCORE], WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], and Qfracture). No studies determined the effectiveness of tools in selecting patients for therapy and thus improving fracture outcomes. High-quality studies in randomized design with population-based cohorts with different case mixes are needed. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  15. Quantification of Circulating Clonal Plasma Cells via Multiparametric Flow Cytometry Identifies Patients with Smoldering Multiple Myeloma at High Risk of Progression

    PubMed Central

    Gonsalves, Wilson I.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Dispenzieri, Angela; Dingli, David; Timm, Michael M.; Morice, William G.; Lacy, Martha Q.; Buadi, Francis K.; Go, Ronald S.; Leung, Nelson; Kapoor, Prashant; Hayman, Suzanne R.; Lust, John A.; Russell, Stephen J.; Zeldenrust, Steven R.; Hwa, Lisa; Kourelis, Taxiarchis V.; Kyle, Robert A.; Gertz, Morie A.; Kumar, Shaji K.

    2017-01-01

    The presence of high numbers of circulating clonal plasma cells (cPCs) in patients with smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), detected by a slide-based immunofluorescence assay, has been associated with a shorter time to progression (TTP) to multiple myeloma (MM). The significance of quantifying cPCs via multiparameter flow cytometry, a much more readily available diagnostic modality, in patients with SMM has not been evaluated. This study evaluated 100 patients with a known or new diagnosis of SMM who were seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester from January 2008 until December 2013. Patients with ≥ 150 cPCs (N = 9) were considered to have high number of cPCs based on the 97% specificity and 78% PPV of progression to MM within 2 years of cPC assessment. The median TTP of patients with ≥ 150 cPCs was 9 months compared to not reached for patients with < 150 cPCs (P < 0.001). Thus, quantification of cPCs via multiparametric flow cytometry identifies patients with SMM at very high risk of progression to MM within 2 years and warrants confirmation in larger studies. In the future, this may allow reclassification of such patients as having MM requiring therapy prior to them enduring end-organ damage. PMID:27457702

  16. Neurodevelopmental outcomes for high-risk neonates in a low-resource setting.

    PubMed

    Milner, Kate M; Duke, Trevor; Steer, Andrew C; Kado, Joseph H; Koyamaibole, Lanieta; Kaarira, Rakei; Namudu, Kelera; Woolfenden, Susan; Miller, Anne E; O'Heir, Kathryn E; Neal, Eleanor F G; Roberts, Gehan

    2017-11-01

    Worldwide, most neonates who survive prematurity and serious illness reside in low-resource settings where developmental outcome data and follow-up care are limited. This study aimed to assess in Fiji, a low-resource Pacific setting, prevalence and risk factors for moderate to severe neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) in early childhood among high-risk neonates compared with controls. Retrospective cohort study comparing long-term outcomes for high-risk neonatal intensive care unit patients (n=149) compared with matched term, normal birth weight neonates (n=147) discharged from Colonial War Memorial Hospital between November 2008 and April 2010. NDI was defined as one or more of cerebral palsy, moderate to severe hearing or visual impairment, or global developmental delay using Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development Third Edition (ie, score <70 in ≥1 of cognitive, language or motor domains). At median (IQR) age 36.1 (28.3, 38.0) months, prevalence of moderate to severe NDI % (95% CI, n) in high-risk and control groups was 12 (5 to 17, n=13) and 5 (2 to 12, n=5), respectively, an increased risk ratio (95% CI) of 2.7 (0.8 to 8.9). Median gestational age (weeks (median, IQR)) in the high-risk group was 37.5 (34-40) weeks. Among high-risk neonates, gestational age, birth weight, asphyxia, meningitis and/or respiratory distress were significantly associated with risk of NDI. Prevalence of NDI was high among this predominantly term high-risk neonatal cohort compared with controls. Results, including identified risk factors, inform efforts to strengthen quality of care and models of follow-up for high-risk neonates in this low-resource setting. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Identifying At-Risk Individuals for Insomnia Using the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test.

    PubMed

    Kalmbach, David A; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J Todd; Drake, Christopher L

    2016-02-01

    A primary focus of the National Institute of Mental Health's current strategic plan is "predicting" who is at risk for disease. As such, the current investigation examined the utility of premorbid sleep reactivity in identifying a specific and manageable population at elevated risk for future insomnia. A community-based sample of adults (n = 2,892; 59.3% female; 47.9 ± 13.3 y old) with no lifetime history of insomnia or depression completed web-based surveys across three annual assessments. Participants reported parental history of insomnia, demographic characteristics, sleep reactivity on the Ford Insomnia in Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and insomnia symptoms. DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were used to determine insomnia classification. Baseline FIRST scores were used to predict incident insomnia at 1-y follow-up. Two clinically meaningful FIRST cutoff values were identified: FIRST ≥ 16 (sensitivity 77%; specificity 50%; odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, P < 0.001); and FIRST ≥ 18 (sensitivity 62%; specificity 67%; OR = 3.32, P < 0.001). Notably, both FIRST cut-points outperformed known maternal (OR = 1.49-1.59, P < 0.01) and paternal history (P = NS) in predicting insomnia onset, even after controlling for stress exposure and demographic characteristics. Of the incident cases, insomniacs with highly reactive sleep systems reported longer sleep onset latencies (FIRST ≥ 16: 65 min; FIRST ≥ 18: 68 min) than participants with nonreactive insomnia (FIRST < 16: 37 min; FIRST < 18: 44 min); these groups did not differ on any other sleep parameters. The current study established a cost- and time-effective strategy for identifying individuals at elevated risk for insomnia based on trait sleep reactivity. The FIRST accurately identifies a focused target population in which the psychobiological processes complicit in insomnia onset and progression can be better investigated, thus improving future preventive efforts. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  18. Y-box-binding protein YB-1 identifies high-risk patients with primary breast cancer benefiting from rapidly cycled tandem high-dose adjuvant chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Gluz, Oleg; Mengele, Karin; Schmitt, Manfred; Kates, Ronald; Diallo-Danebrock, Raihana; Neff, Frauke; Royer, Hans-Dieter; Eckstein, Niels; Mohrmann, Svjetlana; Ting, Evelyn; Kiechle, Marion; Poremba, Christopher; Nitz, Ulrike; Harbeck, Nadia

    2009-12-20

    To investigate the potential of Y-box-binding protein YB-1, a multifunctional protein linked to tumor aggressiveness and multidrug resistance, to identify patients with breast cancer likely to benefit from dose-intensified chemotherapy regimens. YB-1 was immunohistochemically determined in 211 primary tumors from the prospective, randomized West German Study Group WSG-AM-01 trial in high-risk (> or = 10 involved lymph-nodes) breast cancer (HRBC). Predictive impact of YB-1 was assessed by multivariate survival analysis, including time-varying factor-therapy interactions. At median follow-up of 61.7 months, patients receiving rapidly cycled tandem high-dose therapy (HD; two cycles [2x] epirubicin 90 mg/m(2) and cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2) every 14 days, followed by 2x epirubicin 90 mg/m(2), cyclophosphamide 3,000 mg/m(2), and thiotepa 400 mg/m(2) every 21 days) had better disease-free survival (DFS; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.89) and overall survival (OS; HR = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.4 to 0.89) than those receiving conventional dose-dense chemotherapy (DD; 4x epirubicin 90 mg/m(2) and cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2), followed by 3x cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2), methotrexate 40 mg/m(2), and fluorouracil 600 mg/m(2) every 14 days). High YB-1 was associated with aggressive tumor phenotype (negative steroid hormone receptor status, positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 and p53 status, high MIB-1, unfavorable tumor grade) and poor OS (median 78 v 97 months; P = .01). In patients with high YB-1, HD yielded a 63-month median DFS (P = .001) and a 46-month median OS advantage (P = .002) versus DD. In multivariate models, patients with high B-1 receiving HD (v DD) had one third the hazard rate after 20 months for DFS and one sixth after 40 months for OS. In a randomized prospective cancer therapy trial, for the first time, a strong predictive impact of YB-1 on survival has been demonstrated: enhanced benefit from HD (v DD) therapy occurs in HRBC with high YB

  19. Biomechanics laboratory-based prediction algorithm to identify female athletes with high knee loads that increase risk of ACL injury

    PubMed Central

    Myer, Gregory D; Ford, Kevin R; Khoury, Jane; Succop, Paul; Hewett, Timothy E

    2014-01-01

    Objective Knee abduction moment (KAM) during landing predicts non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk with high sensitivity and specificity in female athletes. The purpose of this study was to employ sensitive laboratory (lab-based) tools to determine predictive mechanisms that underlie increased KAM during landing. Methods Female basketball and soccer players (N=744) from a single county public school district were recruited to participate in testing of anthropometrics, maturation, laxity/flexibility, strength and landing biomechanics. Linear regression was used to model KAM, and logistic regression was used to examine high (>25.25 Nm of KAM) versus low KAM as surrogate for ACL injury risk. Results The most parsimonious model included independent predictors (β±1 SE) (1) peak knee abduction angle (1.78±0.05; p<0.001), (2) peak knee extensor moment (0.17±0.01; p<0.001), (3) knee flexion range of motion (0.15±0.03; p<0.01), (4) body mass index (BMI) Z-score (−1.67±0.36; p<0.001) and (5) tibia length (−0.50±0.14; p<0.001) and accounted for 78% of the variance in KAM during landing. The logistic regression model that employed these same variables predicted high KAM status with 85% sensitivity and 93% specificity and a C-statistic of 0.96. Conclusions Increased knee abduction angle, quadriceps recruitment, tibia length and BMI with decreased knee flexion account for 80% of the measured variance in KAM during a drop vertical jump. Clinical relevance Females who demonstrate increased KAM are more responsive and more likely to benefit from neuromuscular training. These findings should significantly enhance the identification of those at increased risk and facilitate neuromuscular training targeted to this important risk factor (high KAM) for ACL injury. PMID:20558526

  20. Communicating about risk: strategies for situations where public concern is high but the risk is low.

    PubMed

    Hooker, Claire; Capon, Adam; Leask, Julie

    2017-01-15

    In this article, we summarise research that identifies best practice for communicating about hazards where the risk is low but public concern is high. We apply Peter Sandman's 'risk = hazard + outrage' formulation to these risks, and review factors associated with the amplification of risk signals. We discuss the structures that determine the success of risk communication strategies, such as the capacity for early communication to 'capture' the dominant representation of risk issues, the importance of communicating uncertainty, and the usefulness of engaging with communities. We argue that, when facing trade-offs in probable outcomes from communication, it is always best to choose strategies that maintain or build trust, even at the cost of initial overreactions. We discuss these features of successful risk communication in relation to a range of specific examples, particularly opposition to community water fluoridation, Ebola, and routine childhood immunisation.

  1. Effectiveness of a Risk Screener in Identifying Hepatitis C Virus in a Primary Care Setting

    PubMed Central

    Litwin, Alain H.; Smith, Bryce D.; Koppelman, Elisa A.; McKee, M. Diane; Christiansen, Cindy L.; Gifford, Allen L.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.; Southern, William N.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives. We evaluated an intervention designed to identify patients at risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) through a risk screener used by primary care providers. Methods. A clinical reminder sticker prompted physicians at 3 urban clinics to screen patients for 12 risk factors and order HCV testing if any risks were present. Risk factor data were collected from the sticker; demographic and testing data were extracted from electronic medical records. We used the t test, χ2 test, and rank-sum test to compare patients who had and had not been screened and developed an analytic model to identify the incremental value of each element of the screener. Results. Among screened patients, 27.8% (n = 902) were identified as having at least 1 risk factor. Of screened patients with risk factors, 55.4% (n = 500) were tested for HCV. Our analysis showed that 7 elements (injection drug use, intranasal drug use, elevated alanine aminotransferase, transfusions before 1992, ≥ 20 lifetime sex partners, maternal HCV, existing liver disease) accounted for all HCV infections identified. Conclusions. A brief risk screener with a paper-based clinical reminder was effective in increasing HCV testing in a primary care setting. PMID:22994166

  2. The rearing environment and risk for drug abuse: a Swedish national high-risk adopted and not adopted co-sibling control study.

    PubMed

    Kendler, K S; Ohlsson, H; Sundquist, K; Sundquist, J

    2016-05-01

    Although drug abuse (DA) is strongly familial, with important genetic influences, we need to know more about the role of rearing environment in the risk for DA. To address this question, we utilized a high-risk adopted and non-adopted co-sibling control design. High-risk offspring had one or more biological parents registered for DA, alcohol use disorders or criminal behavior. Using Swedish registries, we identified 1161 high-risk full-sibships and 3085 high-risk half-sibships containing at least one member who was adopted-away and one member who was not. Registration for DA was via national criminal, medical and pharmacy registers. In Sweden, adoptive families are screened to provide high-quality rearing environment for adoptees. Controlling for parental age at birth and gender (and, in half-siblings, high-risk status of the other parent), risk for DA was substantially lower in the full- and half-siblings who were adopted v. not adopted [hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals: 0.55 (0.45-0·69) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.48-0.63), respectively]. The protective effect of adoption on risk for DA was significantly stronger in the full- and half-sibling pairs with very high familial liability (two high-risk parents) and significantly weaker when the adoptive family was broken by death or divorce, or contained a high-risk parent. In both full- and half-sibling pairs, we found replicated evidence that rearing environment strongly impacts on risk for DA. High-quality rearing environments can substantively reduce risk for DA in those at high genetic risk.

  3. Increased Default Mode Network Connectivity in Individuals at High Familial Risk for Depression

    PubMed Central

    Posner, Jonathan; Cha, Jiook; Wang, Zhishun; Talati, Ardesheer; Warner, Virginia; Gerber, Andrew; Peterson, Bradley S; Weissman, Myrna

    2016-01-01

    Research into the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) has focused largely on individuals already affected by MDD. Studies have thus been limited in their ability to disentangle effects that arise as a result of MDD from precursors of the disorder. By studying individuals at high familial risk for MDD, we aimed to identify potential biomarkers indexing risk for developing MDD, a critical step toward advancing prevention and early intervention. Using resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) and diffusion MRI (tractography), we examined connectivity within the default mode network (DMN) and between the DMN and the central executive network (CEN) in 111 individuals, aged 11–60 years, at high and low familial risk for depression. Study participants were part of a three-generation longitudinal, cohort study of familial depression. Based on rs-fcMRI, individuals at high vs low familial risk for depression showed increased DMN connectivity, as well as decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity. These findings remained significant after excluding individuals with a current or lifetime history of depression. Diffusion MRI measures based on tractography supported the findings of decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity. Path analyses indicated that decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity mediated a relationship between familial risk and a neuropsychological measure of impulsivity. Our findings suggest that DMN and DMN-CEN connectivity differ in those at high vs low risk for depression and thus suggest potential biomarkers for identifying individuals at risk for developing MDD. PMID:26593265

  4. Increased Default Mode Network Connectivity in Individuals at High Familial Risk for Depression.

    PubMed

    Posner, Jonathan; Cha, Jiook; Wang, Zhishun; Talati, Ardesheer; Warner, Virginia; Gerber, Andrew; Peterson, Bradley S; Weissman, Myrna

    2016-06-01

    Research into the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) has focused largely on individuals already affected by MDD. Studies have thus been limited in their ability to disentangle effects that arise as a result of MDD from precursors of the disorder. By studying individuals at high familial risk for MDD, we aimed to identify potential biomarkers indexing risk for developing MDD, a critical step toward advancing prevention and early intervention. Using resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) and diffusion MRI (tractography), we examined connectivity within the default mode network (DMN) and between the DMN and the central executive network (CEN) in 111 individuals, aged 11-60 years, at high and low familial risk for depression. Study participants were part of a three-generation longitudinal, cohort study of familial depression. Based on rs-fcMRI, individuals at high vs low familial risk for depression showed increased DMN connectivity, as well as decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity. These findings remained significant after excluding individuals with a current or lifetime history of depression. Diffusion MRI measures based on tractography supported the findings of decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity. Path analyses indicated that decreased DMN-CEN-negative connectivity mediated a relationship between familial risk and a neuropsychological measure of impulsivity. Our findings suggest that DMN and DMN-CEN connectivity differ in those at high vs low risk for depression and thus suggest potential biomarkers for identifying individuals at risk for developing MDD.

  5. High cardiovascular risk in Spanish workers.

    PubMed

    Sánchez Chaparro, M A; Calvo Bonacho, E; González Quintela, A; Cabrera, M; Sáinz, J C; Fernández-Labander, C; Quevedo-Aguado, L; Gelpi, J A; Fernández Meseguer, A; Brotons, C; de Teresa, E; González Santos, P; Román García, J

    2011-04-01

    To investigate the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk in the Spanish working population, and its distribution among different occupations and gender. Cross-sectional study of 309,955 workers (72.6% males, mean age 36.5 years, range 16-74 years), who underwent a routine medical check-up. Workers were classified as high, intermediate or low cardiovascular risk, according to the SCORE system. Workers with a relative risk greater than 4 were also considered as high-risk. The prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was 7.6% (95% CI 7.5-7.7) in males and 1.7% (95% CI 1.6-1.8) in females. After adjusting for age and gender, the prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was greater in workers from the Agriculture and Construction sectors than in those from Industry and Service sectors. The prevalence of high cardiovascular risk was higher in blue-collar than in white-collar occupations. A sizeable proportion of workers, especially blue-collar males, are at high cardiovascular risk. Knowledge of this risk for certain workers may serve as a basis for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Identifying fine sediment sources to alleviate flood risk caused by fine sediments through catchment connectivity analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twohig, Sarah; Pattison, Ian; Sander, Graham

    2017-04-01

    Fine sediment poses a significant threat to UK river systems in terms of vegetation, aquatic habitats and morphology. Deposition of fine sediment onto the river bed reduces channel capacity resulting in decreased volume to contain high flow events. Once the in channel problem has been identified managers are under pressure to sustainably mitigate flood risk. With climate change and land use adaptations increasing future pressures on river catchments it is important to consider the connectivity of fine sediment throughout the river catchment and its influence on channel capacity, particularly in systems experiencing long term aggradation. Fine sediment erosion is a continuing concern in the River Eye, Leicestershire. The predominately rural catchment has a history of flooding within the town of Melton Mowbray. Fine sediment from agricultural fields has been identified as a major contributor of sediment delivery into the channel. Current mitigation measures are not sustainable or successful in preventing the continuum of sediment throughout the catchment. Identifying the potential sources and connections of fine sediment would provide insight into targeted catchment management. 'Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platforms' (SCIMAP) is a tool often used by UK catchment managers to identify potential sources and routes of sediment within a catchment. SCIMAP is a risk based model that combines hydrological (rainfall) and geomorphic controls (slope, land cover) to identify the risk of fine sediment being transported from source into the channel. A desktop version of SCIMAP was run for the River Eye at a catchment scale using 5m terrain, rainfall and land cover data. A series of SCIMAP model runs were conducted changing individual parameters to determine the sensitivity of the model. Climate Change prediction data for the catchment was used to identify potential areas of future connectivity and erosion risk for catchment managers. The results have been

  7. Identifying overweight high school students: prevalence of overweight in an ethnically diverse adolescent population in two Connecticut high schools.

    PubMed

    Ross, Marilyn

    2004-02-01

    The Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey, 1988-1994 (NHANES III) found that 11.5% of adolescents aged 12-17 years were overweight, and NHANES 1999-2000 found that 15.5% of adolescents aged 12-19 years were overweight. Body Mass Indices and percentiles were obtained using medical records from 790 white, black, Hispanic, and Asian 11th-grade students. Contrasted with NHANES 1999-2000, this study found a higher prevalence of overweight among white males, a lower prevalence among blacks (both sexes), a lower prevalence among Hispanics than NHANES 1999-2000 found among Mexican Americans (both sexes), and a lower prevalence among all adolescents sampled. It found overweight in females highest in blacks and at risk of overweight highest among blacks and Hispanics (both sexes). Public attention should be focused on the high prevalence of overweight and at risk of overweight, particularly among minority high school students. Overweight and at risk of overweight students can be relatively easily identified by utilizing available medical records. Treatment and prevention efforts can then be initiated.

  8. Social and Psychological Factors Related to Risk of Eating Disorders Among High School Girls.

    PubMed

    Alfoukha, Marwa M; Hamdan-Mansour, Ayman M; Banihani, Manar Ali

    2017-01-01

    Prevalence of eating disorders (EDs) has increased among adolescents in Arabic and Western countries. The purposes are to identify the risk of ED and psychosocial correlates of risk of ED among high school girls in Jordan. The researchers employed a cross-sectional, correlational design using 799 high school girls from governmental and private schools in the central region of Jordan. The results indicate that prevalence of the risk of ED was 12%. The risk of ED had significant and positive correlation with body shape dissatisfaction, self-esteem, psychological distress, and pressure from family, peers, and media ( p < .001). Body shape dissatisfaction, low self-esteem, negative peer pressure, and being young were significant predictors of the risk of EDs. Risk of ED is highly prevalent among high school girls, and school nurses need to adopt a model of care addressing the risk factors while caring for high school girls.

  9. HIV risk behaviors among African American men in Los Angeles County who self-identify as heterosexual.

    PubMed

    Wohl, Amy Rock; Johnson, Denise F; Lu, Sharon; Jordan, Wilbert; Beall, Gildon; Currier, Judith; Simon, Paul A

    2002-11-01

    There are limited data on high-risk behaviors among heterosexual African American men with HIV infection. Risk behaviors were examined in a case-control study of HIV-infected (n = 90) and uninfected (n = 272) African American men who self-identified as heterosexual. Of men who self-identified as heterosexual, 31% (n = 28) of the infected men and 16% (n = 43) of the uninfected men reported having had anal sex with men. Among the heterosexual men reporting anal sex with men, 100% of the infected and 67% of the uninfected men reported inconsistent condom use during anal sex with men. Few of the infected (12%) and uninfected (2%) men reported oral sex with other men. Of the men who self-identified as heterosexual, 46% of those who were HIV-positive and 37% of those who were HIV-negative reported anal sex with women with infrequent condom use. An increasing risk for HIV was associated with decreasing age at first sexual experience (chi2, 9.3; p = .002). A history of injecting drugs (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence intervals [CIs], 1.8, 5.4) and amphetamine (OR, 4.3; 95% CIs, 1.1, 16.7) and methamphetamine (OR, 2.9; 95% CIs, 1.4, 6.3) use were associated with HIV. Innovative HIV prevention strategies are needed that move beyond the traditional gay versus straight model to effectively access hard-to-reach African American men who self-identify as heterosexual.

  10. Root Source Analysis/ValuStream[Trade Mark] - A Methodology for Identifying and Managing Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Richard Lee

    2008-01-01

    Root Source Analysis (RoSA) is a systems engineering methodology that has been developed at NASA over the past five years. It is designed to reduce costs, schedule, and technical risks by systematically examining critical assumptions and the state of the knowledge needed to bring to fruition the products that satisfy mission-driven requirements, as defined for each element of the Work (or Product) Breakdown Structure (WBS or PBS). This methodology is sometimes referred to as the ValuStream method, as inherent in the process is the linking and prioritizing of uncertainties arising from knowledge shortfalls directly to the customer's mission driven requirements. RoSA and ValuStream are synonymous terms. RoSA is not simply an alternate or improved method for identifying risks. It represents a paradigm shift. The emphasis is placed on identifying very specific knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are the root sources of the risk (the why), rather than on assessing the WBS product(s) themselves (the what). In so doing RoSA looks forward to anticipate, identify, and prioritize knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are likely to create significant uncertainties/ risks (as compared to Root Cause Analysis, which is most often used to look back to discover what was not known, or was assumed, that caused the failure). Experience indicates that RoSA, with its primary focus on assumptions and the state of the underlying knowledge needed to define, design, build, verify, and operate the products, can identify critical risks that historically have been missed by the usual approaches (i.e., design review process and classical risk identification methods). Further, the methodology answers four critical questions for decision makers and risk managers: 1. What s been included? 2. What's been left out? 3. How has it been validated? 4. Has the real source of the uncertainty/ risk been identified, i.e., is the perceived problem the real problem? Users of the RoSA methodology

  11. A newly identified group of adolescents at “invisible” risk for psychopathology and suicidal behavior: findings from the SEYLE study

    PubMed Central

    Carli, Vladimir; Hoven, Christina W; Wasserman, Camilla; Chiesa, Flaminia; Guffanti, Guia; Sarchiapone, Marco; Apter, Alan; Balazs, Judit; Brunner, Romuald; Corcoran, Paul; Cosman, Doina; Haring, Christian; Iosue, Miriam; Kaess, Michael; Kahn, Jean Pierre; Keeley, Helen; Postuvan, Vita; Saiz, Pilar; Varnik, Airi; Wasserman, Danuta

    2014-01-01

    This study explored the prevalence of risk behaviors (excessive alcohol use, illegal drug use, heavy smoking, reduced sleep, overweight, underweight, sedentary behavior, high use of Internet/TV/videogames for reasons not related to school or work, and truancy), and their association with psychopathology and self-destructive behaviors, in a sample of 12,395 adolescents recruited in randomly selected schools across 11 European countries. Latent class analysis identified three groups of adolescents: a low-risk group (57.8%) including pupils with low or very low frequency of risk behaviors; a high-risk group (13.2%) including pupils who scored high on all risk behaviors, and a third group (“invisible” risk, 29%) including pupils who were positive for high use of Internet/TV/videogames for reasons not related to school or work, sedentary behavior and reduced sleep. Pupils in the “invisible” risk group, compared with the high-risk group, had a similar prevalence of suicidal thoughts (42.2% vs. 44%), anxiety (8% vs. 9.2%), subthreshold depression (33.2% vs. 34%) and depression (13.4% vs. 14.7%). The prevalence of suicide attempts was 5.9% in the “invisible” group, 10.1% in the high-risk group and 1.7% in the low-risk group. The prevalence of all risk behaviors increased with age and most of them were significantly more frequent among boys. Girls were significantly more likely to experience internalizing (emotional) psychiatric symptoms. The “invisible” group may represent an important new intervention target group for potentially reducing psychopathology and other untoward outcomes in adolescence, including suicidal behavior. PMID:24497256

  12. Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci.

    PubMed

    Michailidou, Kyriaki; Lindström, Sara; Dennis, Joe; Beesley, Jonathan; Hui, Shirley; Kar, Siddhartha; Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D; Qing Chen, Xiao; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason S; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Bojesen, Stig E; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D; Castelao, Jose E; Chan, Tsun L; David Cheng, Ting-Yuan; Seng Chia, Kee; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Cunningham, Julie M; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F; Dörk, Thilo; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M; Ekici, Arif B; Eliassen, A Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M; García-Sáenz, José A; Gaudet, Mia M; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S; Goldgar, David E; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J; Hoover, Robert N; Hopper, John L; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Neng Lee, Chuen; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P; Ma, Edmond S K; MacInnis, Robert J; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Olson, Janet E; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V Shane; Park, Sue K; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I A; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofyeva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J T; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J; Schmidt, Daniel F; Schmutzler, Rita K; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E; Shrubsole, Martha J; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C; Spinelli, John J; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H; Beth Terry, Mary; Tessier, Daniel C; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R; Har Yip, Cheng; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R; Antoniou, Antonis C; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L; Amos, Christopher I; Couch, Fergus J; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J; Milne, Roger L; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Chanock, Stephen J; Dunning, Alison M; Edwards, Stacey L; Bader, Gary D; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F

    2017-11-02

    Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10 -8 . The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

  13. Identifying Common Genetic Risk Factors of Diabetic Neuropathies

    PubMed Central

    Witzel, Ini-Isabée; Jelinek, Herbert F.; Khalaf, Kinda; Lee, Sungmun; Khandoker, Ahsan H.; Alsafar, Habiba

    2015-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global public health problem of epidemic proportions, with 60–70% of affected individuals suffering from associated neurovascular complications that act on multiple organ systems. The most common and clinically significant neuropathies of T2DM include uremic neuropathy, peripheral neuropathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. These conditions seriously impact an individual’s quality of life and significantly increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. Although advances in gene sequencing technologies have identified several genetic variants that may regulate the development and progression of T2DM, little is known about whether or not the variants are involved in disease progression and how these genetic variants are associated with diabetic neuropathy specifically. Significant missing heritability data and complex disease etiologies remain to be explained. This article is the first to provide a review of the genetic risk variants implicated in the diabetic neuropathies and to highlight potential commonalities. We thereby aim to contribute to the creation of a genetic-metabolic model that will help to elucidate the cause of diabetic neuropathies, evaluate a patient’s risk profile, and ultimately facilitate preventative and targeted treatment for the individual. PMID:26074879

  14. Who takes risks in high-risk sports? A typological personality approach.

    PubMed

    Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

    2010-12-01

    We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing mountaineering rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness. Results showed that personality types with a configuration of low conscientiousness combined with high extraversion and/or high neuroticism (impulsive, hedonistic, insecure) were greater risk-takers. Conversely, personality types with a configuration of high conscientiousness combined with low extraversion and/or high extraversion (skeptic, brooder, entrepreneur) were lower risk-takers. Results are discussed in the context of typology and other approaches to understanding who takes risks in high-risk domains.

  15. Model of areas for identifying risks influencing the compliance of technological processes and products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misztal, A.; Belu, N.

    2016-08-01

    Operation of every company is associated with the risk of interfering with proper performance of its fundamental processes. This risk is associated with various internal areas of the company, as well as the environment in which it operates. From the point of view of ensuring compliance of the course of specific technological processes and, consequently, product conformity with requirements, it is important to identify these threats and eliminate or reduce the risk of their occurrence. The purpose of this article is to present a model of areas of identifying risk affecting the compliance of processes and products, which is based on multiregional targeted monitoring of typical places of interference and risk management methods. The model is based on the verification of risk analyses carried out in small and medium-sized manufacturing companies in various industries..

  16. Radiology liability update: review of claims, trends, high-risk conditions and practices, and tort reform alternatives.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Norman B; Patel, Mohini

    2012-10-01

    Radiology liability claims data are reviewed to explore the risk for suit and adverse judgments or settlements among radiologists, assess high-risk imaging conditions, and identify high-risk practice issues. Possible medical malpractice tort reform options are reviewed. Copyright © 2012 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A novel recurrent CHEK2 Y390C mutation identified in high-risk Chinese breast cancer patients impairs its activity and is associated with increased breast cancer risk.

    PubMed

    Wang, N; Ding, H; Liu, C; Li, X; Wei, L; Yu, J; Liu, M; Ying, M; Gao, W; Jiang, H; Wang, Y

    2015-10-01

    Certain predisposition factors such as BRCA1/2 and CHEK2 mutations cause familial breast cancers that occur early. In China, breast cancers are diagnosed at relatively younger age, and higher percentage of patients are diagnosed before 40 years, than that in Caucasians. However, the prevalence for BRCA1/2 mutations and reported CHEK2 germline mutations is much lower or absent in Chinese population, arguing for the need to study other novel risk alleles among Chinese breast cancer patients. In this study, we searched for CHEK2 mutations in young, high-risk breast cancer patients in China and detected a missense variant Y390C (1169A > G) in 12 of 150 patients (8.0%) and 2 in 250 healthy controls (0.8%, P = 0.0002). Four of the Y390C carriers have family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. In patients without family history, Y390C carriers tend to develop breast cancer early, before 35 years of age. The codon change at Y390, a highly conserved residue located in CHEK2's kinase domain, appeared to significantly impair CHEK2 activity. Functional analysis suggested that the CHEK2 Y390C mutation is deleterious as judged by the mutant protein's inability to inactivate CDC25A or to activate p53 after DNA damage. Cells expressing the CHEK2 Y390C variant showed impaired p21 and Puma expression after DNA damage, and the deregulated cell cycle checkpoint and apoptotic response may help conserve mutations and therefore contribute to tumorigeneisis. Taken together, our results not only identified a novel CHEK2 allele that is associated with cancer families and confers increased breast cancer risk, but also showed that this allele significantly impairs CHEK2 function during DNA damage response. Our results provide further insight on how the function of such an important cancer gene may be impaired by existing mutations to facilitate tumorigenesis. It also offers a new subject for breast cancer monitoring, prevention and management.

  18. Blood Urea Nitrogen/Creatinine Ratio Identifies a High-Risk but Potentially Reversible Form of Renal Dysfunction in Patients With Decompensated Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Brisco, Meredith A.; Coca, Steven G.; Chen, Jennifer; Owens, Anjali Tiku; McCauley, Brian D.; Kimmel, Stephen E.; Testani, Jeffrey M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Identifying reversible renal dysfunction (RD) in the setting of heart failure is challenging. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether elevated admission blood urea nitrogen/creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr) could identify decompensated heart failure patients likely to experience improvement in renal function (IRF) with treatment. Methods and Results Consecutive hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of heart failure were reviewed. IRF was defined as ≥20% increase and worsening renal function as ≥20% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. IRF occurred in 31% of the 896 patients meeting eligibility criteria. Higher admission BUN/Cr was associated with inhospital IRF (odds ratio, 1.5 per 10 increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3–1.8; P<0.001), an association persisting after adjustment for baseline characteristics (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8; P=0.004). However, higher admission BUN/Cr was also associated with post-discharge worsening renal function (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1–1.8; P=0.011). Notably, in patients with an elevated admission BUN/Cr, the risk of death associated with RD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45) was substantial (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6–3.1; P<0.001). However, in patients with a normal admission BUN/Cr, RD was not associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.67–2.0; P=0.59; p interaction=0.03). Conclusions An elevated admission BUN/Cr identifies decompensated patients with heart failure likely to experience IRF with treatment, providing proof of concept that reversible RD may be a discernible entity. However, this improvement seems to be largely transient, and RD, in the setting of an elevated BUN/Cr, remains strongly associated with death. Further research is warranted to develop strategies for the optimal detection and treatment of these high-risk patients. PMID:23325460

  19. Baseline HbA1c to Identify High-Risk Gestational Diabetes: Utility in Early vs Standard Gestational Diabetes.

    PubMed

    Sweeting, Arianne N; Ross, Glynis P; Hyett, Jon; Molyneaux, Lynda; Tan, Kris; Constantino, Maria; Harding, Anna Jane; Wong, Jencia

    2017-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) necessitates risk stratification directing limited antenatal resources to those at greatest risk. Recent evidence demonstrates that an early pregnancy glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) predicts adverse pregnancy outcomes. To determine the optimal HbA1c threshold for adverse pregnancy outcomes in GDM in a treated multiethnic cohort and whether this differs in women diagnosed <24 vs ≥24 weeks' gestation (early vs standard GDM). This was a retrospective cohort study undertaken at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Diabetes Antenatal Clinic, Australia, between 1991 and 2011. Pregnant women (N = 3098) underwent an HbA1c (single-laboratory) measurement at the time of GDM diagnosis. Maternal clinical and pregnancy outcome data were collected prospectively. The association between baseline HbA1c and adverse pregnancy outcomes in early vs standard GDM. HbA1c was measured at a median of 17.6 ± 3.3 weeks' gestation in early GDM (n = 844) and 29.4 ± 2.6 weeks' gestation in standard GDM (n = 2254). In standard GDM, HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) was associated with the greatest risk of large-for-gestational-age (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.7 [1.5-4.9]), macrosomia (3.5 [1.4-8.6]), cesarean section (3.6 [2.1-6.2]), and hypertensive disorders (2.6 [1.1-5.8]). In early GDM, similar HbA1c associations were seen; however, lower HbA1c correlated with the greatest risk of small-for-gestational-age (P trend = 0.004) and prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia. Baseline HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) identifies an increased risk of large-for-gestational-age, macrosomia, cesarean section, and hypertensive disorders in standard GDM. Although similar associations are seen in early GDM, higher HbA1c levels do not adequately capture risk-limiting utility as a triage tool in this cohort. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

  20. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-09-01

    National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.

  1. High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

    2017-09-01

    High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p < 0.001) and, similarly, at centers performing 70 per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.26, 1.43; p < 0.001). The interaction between high donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

  2. Nutritional markers may identify patients with greater risk of re-admission after geriatric hip fractures.

    PubMed

    Stone, Austin V; Jinnah, Alexander; Wells, Brian J; Atkinson, Hal; Miller, Anna N; Futrell, Wendell M; Lenoir, Kristin; Emory, Cynthia L

    2018-02-01

    Osteoporotic hip fractures are increasing in prevalence with the growing elderly population. Morbidity and mortality remain high following osteoporotic hip fractures despite advances in medical and surgical treatments. The associated costs and medical burdens are increased with a re-admission following hip fracture treatment. This study sought to identify demographic and clinical values that may be a predictive model for 30-day re-admission risk following operative management of an isolated hip fracture. Between January 1, 2013 and April 30, 2015 all patients admitted to a single academic medical centre for treatment of a hip fracture were reviewed. Candidate variables included standard demographics, common laboratory values, and markers of comorbid conditions and nutrition status. A 30-day, all-cause re-admission model was created utilizing multivariate logistic regression. A total of 607 patients with hip fractures were identified and met the inclusion criteria; of those patients, 67 were re-admitted within 30 days. Univariate analysis indicates that the re-admission group had more comorbidities (p < 0.001) and lower albumin (p = 0.038) and prealbumin (p < 0.001). The final, reduced model contained 12 variables and incorporated four out of five nutritional makers with an internally, cross-validated C-statistic of 0.811 (95% CI: 0.754, 0.867). Our results indicate that specific nutritional laboratory markers at the index admission may identify patients that have a greater risk of re-admission after hip fracture. This model identifies potentially modifiable risk factors and may allow orthogeriatricians to better educate patients and better treat post-operative nutritional status and care.

  3. A simple method to identify areas of environmental risk due to manure application.

    PubMed

    Flores, Héctor; Arumí, José Luis; Rivera, Diego; Lagos, L Octavio

    2012-06-01

    The management of swine manure is becoming an important environmental issue in Chile. One option for the final disposal of manure is to use it as a biofertilizer, but this practice could impact the surrounding environment. To assess the potential environmental impacts of the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer, we propose a method to identify zones of environmental risk through indices. The method considers two processes: nutrient runoff and solute leaching, and uses available information about soils, crops and management practices (irrigation, fertilization, and rotation). We applied the method to qualitatively assess the environmental risk associated with the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer in an 8,000-pig farm located in Central Chile. Results showed that the farm has a moderate environmental risk, but some specific locations have high environmental risks, especially those associated with impacts on areas surrounding water resources. This information could assist the definition of better farm-level management practices, as well as the preservation of riparian vegetation acting as buffer strips. The main advantage of our approach is that it combines qualitative and quantitative information, including particular situations or field features based on expert knowledge. The method is flexible, simple, and can be easily extended or adapted to other processes.

  4. Exploring demands from the perspective of employees identified as being at risk of burnout

    PubMed Central

    Gauche, Cecile; de Beer, Leon T.; Brink, Lizelle

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Purpose: Burnout has become an occupational health concern. However, little is known about the experiences of individuals identified as being at risk of burnout. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring employees’ experiences of well-being who were identified as burnout risks. Method: Interviews were conducted with 26 employees who agreed to participate in the study. A phenomenological approach was taken, with a case study design as the research strategy. Results: Three major themes were identified: job demands, life demands, and health concerns. It was evident that participants were experiencing demanding conditions in both their work and personal lives, indicating burnout to be a multi-domain phenomenon. Conclusions: Professionals and managers should take note of these results to assist and support employees who are identified as being at risk of burnout. PMID:28784048

  5. Robotic radical prostatectomy in patients with high-risk disease: a review of short-term outcomes from a high-volume center.

    PubMed

    Jayram, Gautam; Decastro, Guarionex J; Large, Michael C; Razmaria, Aria; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shalhav, Arieh L; Brendler, Charles B

    2011-03-01

    Patients with high-risk prostate cancer have historically been treated with multimodal therapy and considered poor candidates for minimally invasive surgery. We reviewed our experiences with robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) in patients with high-risk clinical features. Clinical database review identified high-risk patients undergoing RARP by two high-volume robotic surgeons. D'Amico's criteria for high-risk prostate cancer were utilized: prostate-specific antigen ≥ 20 ng/mL, clinical stage ≥ T2c, or preoperative Gleason grade ≥ 8. About 148 patients were identified in the study group. Mean age at surgery was 60.9 years, and mean body mass index was 27.9. Mean estimated blood loss was 150 cc and the transfusion rate was 2.7%. Median hospital stay was 1 day and the rate of major complications (Clavien grade ≥ 3) was 3.4%. Bilateral nerve preservation was feasible in 28.4%, and the rate of positive surgical margins was 20.9%. Final pathology demonstrated extra-capsular disease in 54.1% of patients and 12.3% had lymph node involvement. At 2 years of follow-up, 21.3% of patients had experienced biochemical recurrence or had persistent disease after treatment. Continence was 91.2% (1 pad or less) and total impotence (inability to masturbate) was 48.3%. RARP does not compromise oncologic or functional outcomes in patients with high-risk prostate cancer. Although long-term study is necessary to validate oncologic and functional outcomes, our data suggest that the presence of high-risk disease is not a contraindication to a minimally invasive approach for radical prostatectomy at experienced centers.

  6. The rearing environment and risk for drug abuse: a Swedish national high-risk adopted and not adopted co-sibling control study

    PubMed Central

    Kendler, K. S.; Ohlsson, H.; Sundquist, K.; Sundquist, J.

    2016-01-01

    Background Although drug abuse (DA) is strongly familial, with important genetic influences, we need to know more about the role of rearing environment in the risk for DA. To address this question, we utilized a high-risk adopted and non-adopted co-sibling control design. Method High-risk offspring had one or more biological parents registered for DA, alcohol use disorders or criminal behavior. Using Swedish registries, we identified 1161 high-risk full-sibships and 3085 high-risk half-sibships containing at least one member who was adopted-away and one member who was not. Registration for DA was via national criminal, medical and pharmacy registers. In Sweden, adoptive families are screened to provide high-quality rearing environment for adoptees. Results Controlling for parental age at birth and gender (and, in half-siblings, high-risk status of the other parent), risk for DA was substantially lower in the full- and half-siblings who were adopted v. not adopted [hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals: 0.55 (0.45–0·69) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.48–0.63), respectively]. The protective effect of adoption on risk for DA was significantly stronger in the full- and half-sibling pairs with very high familial liability (two high-risk parents) and significantly weaker when the adoptive family was broken by death or divorce, or contained a high-risk parent. Conclusions In both full- and half-sibling pairs, we found replicated evidence that rearing environment strongly impacts on risk for DA. High-quality rearing environments can substantively reduce risk for DA in those at high genetic risk. PMID:26753502

  7. Combining Knowledge and Data Driven Insights for Identifying Risk Factors using Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Luo, Dijun; Markatou, Marianthi; Wang, Fei; Edabollahi, Shahram; Steinhubl, Steven E.; Daar, Zahra; Stewart, Walter F.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The ability to identify the risk factors related to an adverse condition, e.g., heart failures (HF) diagnosis, is very important for improving care quality and reducing cost. Existing approaches for risk factor identification are either knowledge driven (from guidelines or literatures) or data driven (from observational data). No existing method provides a model to effectively combine expert knowledge with data driven insight for risk factor identification. Methods: We present a systematic approach to enhance known knowledge-based risk factors with additional potential risk factors derived from data. The core of our approach is a sparse regression model with regularization terms that correspond to both knowledge and data driven risk factors. Results: The approach is validated using a large dataset containing 4,644 heart failure cases and 45,981 controls. The outpatient electronic health records (EHRs) for these patients include diagnosis, medication, lab results from 2003–2010. We demonstrate that the proposed method can identify complementary risk factors that are not in the existing known factors and can better predict the onset of HF. We quantitatively compare different sets of risk factors in the context of predicting onset of HF using the performance metric, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). The combined risk factors between knowledge and data significantly outperform knowledge-based risk factors alone. Furthermore, those additional risk factors are confirmed to be clinically meaningful by a cardiologist. Conclusion: We present a systematic framework for combining knowledge and data driven insights for risk factor identification. We demonstrate the power of this framework in the context of predicting onset of HF, where our approach can successfully identify intuitive and predictive risk factors beyond a set of known HF risk factors. PMID:23304365

  8. Predation risk modifies behaviour by shaping the response of identified brain neurons.

    PubMed

    Magani, Fiorella; Luppi, Tomas; Nuñez, Jesus; Tomsic, Daniel

    2016-04-15

    Interpopulation comparisons in species that show behavioural variations associated with particular ecological disparities offer good opportunities for assessing how environmental factors may foster specific functional adaptations in the brain. Yet, studies on the neural substrate that can account for interpopulation behavioural adaptations are scarce. Predation is one of the strongest driving forces for behavioural evolvability and, consequently, for shaping structural and functional brain adaptations. We analysed the escape response of crabs ITALIC! Neohelice granulatafrom two isolated populations exposed to different risks of avian predation. Individuals from the high-risk area proved to be more reactive to visual danger stimuli (VDS) than those from an area where predators are rare. Control experiments indicate that the response difference was specific for impending visual threats. Subsequently, we analysed the response to VDS of a group of giant brain neurons that are thought to play a main role in the visually guided escape response of the crab. Neurons from animals of the population with the stronger escape response were more responsive to VDS than neurons from animals of the less reactive population. Our results suggest a robust linkage between the pressure imposed by the predation risk, the response of identified neurons and the behavioural outcome. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  9. Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

    PubMed Central

    Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D.; Chen, Xiao Qing; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E.; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A.; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J.; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L.; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W.; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y.; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D.; Castelao, Jose E.; Chan, Tsun L.; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Chia, Kee Seng; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L.; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M.; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B.; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F.; Dörk, Thilo; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M.; Ekici, Arif B.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M.; García-Sáenz, José A.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G.; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S.; Goldgar, David E.; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I.; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A.; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N.; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hoover, Robert N.; Hopper, John L.; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M.; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J.; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I.; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Marchand, Loic Le; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Chuen Neng; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P.; Ma, Edmond S.K.; MacInnis, Robert J.; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E.; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Mohd Taib, Nur Aishah; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F.; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Olson, Janet E.; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V. Shane; Park, Sue K.; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I.A.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofieva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S.; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J. Th.; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P.; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J.; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E.; Shrubsole, Martha J.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C.; Spinelli, John J.; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O.; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A.; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H.; Terry, Mary Beth; Tessier, Daniel C.; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J.; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M.W.; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H.; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R.; Yip, Cheng Har; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R.; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L.; Amos, Christopher I.; Couch, Fergus J.; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J.; Milne, Roger L.; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Dunning, Alison M.; Edwards, Stacey L.; Bader, Gary D.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes such as BRCA1 and many common, mainly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. We report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry1. We identified 65 new loci associated with overall breast cancer at p<5x10-8. The majority of credible risk SNPs in the new loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in-silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all SNPs in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the utility of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention. PMID:29059683

  10. Standardised survey method for identifying catchment risks to water quality.

    PubMed

    Baker, D L; Ferguson, C M; Chier, P; Warnecke, M; Watkinson, A

    2016-06-01

    This paper describes the development and application of a systematic methodology to identify and quantify risks in drinking water and recreational catchments. The methodology assesses microbial and chemical contaminants from both diffuse and point sources within a catchment using Escherichia coli, protozoan pathogens and chemicals (including fuel and pesticides) as index contaminants. Hazard source information is gathered by a defined sanitary survey process involving use of a software tool which groups hazards into six types: sewage infrastructure, on-site sewage systems, industrial, stormwater, agriculture and recreational sites. The survey estimates the likelihood of the site affecting catchment water quality, and the potential consequences, enabling the calculation of risk for individual sites. These risks are integrated to calculate a cumulative risk for each sub-catchment and the whole catchment. The cumulative risks process accounts for the proportion of potential input sources surveyed and for transfer of contaminants from upstream to downstream sub-catchments. The output risk matrices show the relative risk sources for each of the index contaminants, highlighting those with the greatest impact on water quality at a sub-catchment and catchment level. Verification of the sanitary survey assessments and prioritisation is achieved by comparison with water quality data and microbial source tracking.

  11. Emotion recognition ability in mothers at high and low risk for child physical abuse.

    PubMed

    Balge, K A; Milner, J S

    2000-10-01

    The study sought to determine if high-risk, compared to low-risk, mothers make more emotion recognition errors when they attempt to recognize emotions in children and adults. Thirty-two demographically matched high-risk (n = 16) and low-risk (n = 16) mothers were asked to identify different emotions expressed by children and adults. Sets of high- and low-intensity, visual and auditory emotions were presented. Mothers also completed measures of stress, depression, and ego-strength. High-risk, compared to low-risk, mothers showed a tendency to make more errors on the visual and auditory emotion recognition tasks, with a trend toward more errors on the low-intensity, visual stimuli. However, the observed trends were not significant. Only a post-hoc test of error rates across all stimuli indicated that high-risk, compared to low-risk, mothers made significantly more emotion recognition errors. Although situational stress differences were not found, high-risk mothers reported significantly higher levels of general parenting stress and depression and lower levels of ego-strength. Since only trends and a significant post hoc finding of more overall emotion recognition errors in high-risk mothers were observed, additional research is needed to determine if high-risk mothers have emotion recognition deficits that may impact parent-child interactions. As in prior research, the study found that high-risk mothers reported more parenting stress and depression and less ego-strength.

  12. Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

    PubMed

    Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

    2012-03-01

    Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Identifying patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of microalbuminuria: results of the DEMAND (Developing Education on Microalbuminuria for Awareness of reNal and cardiovascular risk in Diabetes) Study.

    PubMed

    Rossi, Maria C E; Nicolucci, Antonio; Pellegrini, Fabio; Comaschi, Marco; Ceriello, Antonio; Cucinotta, Domenico; Giorda, Carlo; Valentini, Umberto; Vespasiani, Giacomo; De Cosmo, Salvatore

    2008-04-01

    We evaluated to what extent the presence of risk factors and their interactions increased the likelihood of microalbuminuria (MAU) among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Fifty-five Italian diabetes outpatient clinics enrolled a sample of patients with type 2 diabetes, without urinary infections and overt diabetic nephropathy. A morning spot urine sample was collected to centrally determine the urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR). A tree-based regression technique (RECPAM) and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate interaction between correlates of MAU. Of the 1841 patients recruited, 228 (12.4%) were excluded due to the presence of urinary infections and 56 (3.5%) for the presence of macroalbuminuria. Overall, the prevalence of MAU (ACR = 30-299 mg/g) was of 19.1%. The RECPAM algorithm led to the identification of seven classes showing a marked difference in the likelihood of MAU. Non-smoker patients with HbA1c <7% and waist circumference 98 cm and HbA1c >8% showed the highest likelihood of MAU (odds ratio = 13.7; 95% confidence intervals 6.8-27.6). In the other classes identified, the risk of MAU ranged between 3 and 5. Age, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol levels and diabetes treatment represented additional, global correlates of MAU. The likelihood of MAU is strongly related to the interaction between diabetes severity, smoking habits and several components of the metabolic syndrome. In particular, abdominal obesity, elevated blood pressure levels and low HDL cholesterol levels substantially increase the risk of MAU. It is of primary importance to monitor MAU in high-risk individuals and aggressively intervene on modifiable risk factors.

  14. Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

    PubMed

    Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

    2016-07-01

    To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. High frequency of brain metastases after adjuvant therapy for high-risk melanoma.

    PubMed

    Samlowski, Wolfram E; Moon, James; Witter, Merle; Atkins, Michael B; Kirkwood, John M; Othus, Megan; Ribas, Antoni; Sondak, Vernon K; Flaherty, Lawrence E

    2017-11-01

    The incidence of CNS progression in patients with high-risk regional melanoma (stages IIIAN2a-IIIC) is not well characterized. Data from the S0008 trial provided an opportunity to examine the role of CNS progression in treatment failure and survival. All patients were surgically staged. Following wide excision and full regional lymphadenectomy, patients were randomized to receive adjuvant biochemotherapy (BCT) or high-dose interferon alfa-2B (HDI). CNS progression was retrospectively identified from data forms. Survival was measured from date of CNS progression. A total of 402 eligible patients were included in the analysis (BCT: 199, HDI: 203). Median follow-up (if alive) was over 7 years (range: 1 month to 11 years). The site of initial progression was identifiable in 80% of relapsing patients. CNS progression was a component of systemic melanoma relapse in 59/402 patients (15% overall). In 34/402 patients (9%) CNS progression represented the initial site of treatment failure. CNS progression was a component of initial progression in 27% of all patients whose melanoma relapsed (59/221). The risk of CNS progression was highest within 3 years of randomization. The difference in CNS progression rates between treatment arms was not significant (BCT = 25, HDI = 34, P = 0.24). Lymph node macrometastases strongly associated with CNS progression (P = 0.001), while ulceration and head and neck primaries were not significant predictors. This retrospective analysis of the S0008 trial identified a high brain metastasis rate (15%) in regionally advanced melanoma patients. Further studies are needed to establish whether screening plus earlier treatment would improve survival following CNS progression. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Identifying patients with AAA with the highest risk following endovascular repair.

    PubMed

    Cadili, Ali; Turnbull, Robert; Hervas-Malo, Marilou; Ghosh, Sunita; Chyczij, Harold

    2012-08-01

    It has been demonstrated that endovascular repair of arterial disease results in reduced perioperative morbidity and mortality compared to open surgical repair. The rates of complications and need for reinterventions, however, have been found to be higher than that in open repair. The purpose of this study was to identify the predictors of endograft complications and mortality in patients undergoing endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair; specifically, our aim was to identify a subset of patients with AAA whose risk of periprocedure mortality was so high that they should not be offered endovascular repair. We undertook a prospective review of patients with AAA receiving endovascular therapy at a single institution. Collected variables included age, gender, date of procedure, indication for procedure, size of aneurysm (where applicable), type of endograft used, presence of rupture, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, major medical comorbidities, type of anesthesia (general, epidural, or local), length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and length of hospital stay. These factors were correlated with the study outcomes (overall mortality, graft complications, morbidity, and reintervention) using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. A total of 199 patients underwent endovascular AAA repair during the study period. The ICU stay, again, was significantly correlated with the primary outcomes (death and graft complications). In addition, length of hospital stay greater than 3 days, also emerged as a statistically significant predictor of graft complications in this subgroup (P = .024). Survival analysis for patients with AAA revealed that age over 85 years and ICU stay were predictive of decreased survival. Statistical analysis for other subgroups of patients (inflammatory AAA or dissection) was not performed due to the small numbers in these subgroups. Patients with AAA greater than 85 years of age are at a greater risk of mortality

  17. Usefulness of a single item in a mail survey to identify persons with possible dementia: a new strategy for finding high-risk elders.

    PubMed

    Brody, Kathleen K; Maslow, Katie; Perrin, Nancy A; Crooks, Valerie; DellaPenna, Richard; Kuang, Daniel

    2005-04-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the characteristics of elderly persons who responded positively to a question about "severe memory problems" on a mailed health questionnaire yet were missed by the existing health risk algorithm to identify vulnerable elderly persons. A total of 324,471 respondents aged 65 and older completed a primary care health status questionnaire that gathered clinical information to quickly identify members with functional impairment, multiple chronic diseases, and higher medical care needs. The respondents were part of a large, integrated, not-for-profit managed care organization that implemented a model of care for elders using a uniform risk identification method across eight regions. Respondents with severe memory problems were compared to general respondents by morbidity, geriatric syndromes, functional impairments, service utilization, sensory impairments, sociodemographic characteristics, and activities of daily living. Of the respondents, 13,902 persons (4.3%) reported severe memory problems; the existing health risk algorithm missed 47.1% of these. When severe memory problems were included in the risk algorithm, identification increased from 11% to 13%, and risk prevalence by age groups ranged from 4.4% to 40.5%; one third had severe memory problems, a finding that was fairly consistent within age groups (28.4% to 36.5%). A question about severe memory problems should be incorporated into population risk-identification techniques. While false-negative rates are unknown, the false-positive rate of a self-report mail survey appears to be minimal. Persons reporting severe memory problems clearly have multiple comorbidities, higher prevalence of geriatric syndromes, and greater functional and sensory impairments.

  18. In-depth Investigation of Genetic Region Identifies Mechanism that Contributes to Cancer Risk

    Cancer.gov

    Investigators in the Laboratory of Translational Genomics have identified a genetic variant in a multi-cancer risk locus at chromosome 5p15.33 that explains, at least in part, the molecular mechanism through which this variant influences cancer risk.

  19. Using decision tree analysis to identify risk factors for relapse to smoking

    PubMed Central

    Piper, Megan E.; Loh, Wei-Yin; Smith, Stevens S.; Japuntich, Sandra J.; Baker, Timothy B.

    2010-01-01

    This research used classification tree analysis and logistic regression models to identify risk factors related to short- and long-term abstinence. Baseline and cessation outcome data from two smoking cessation trials, conducted from 2001 to 2002, in two Midwestern urban areas, were analyzed. There were 928 participants (53.1% women, 81.8% white) with complete data. Both analyses suggest that relapse risk is produced by interactions of risk factors and that early and late cessation outcomes reflect different vulnerability factors. The results illustrate the dynamic nature of relapse risk and suggest the importance of efficient modeling of interactions in relapse prediction. PMID:20397871

  20. Urine albumin/creatinine ratio, high sensitivity C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide--three new cardiovascular risk markers--do they improve risk prediction and influence treatment?

    PubMed

    Olsen, Michael H; Sehestedt, Thomas; Lyngbaek, Stig; Hansen, Tine W; Rasmussen, Susanne; Wachtell, Kristian; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hildebrandt, Per R; Ibsen, Hans

    2010-01-01

    In order to prioritize limited health resources in a time of increasing demands optimal cardiovascular risk stratification is essential. We tested the additive prognostic value of 3 relatively new, but established cardiovascular risk markers: N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP), related to hemodynamic cardiovascular risk factors, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), related to metabolic cardiovascular risk factors and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), related to hemodynamic as well as metabolic risk factors. In healthy subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular death lower than 5% based on HeartScore and therefore not eligible for primary prevention, the actual 10-year risk of cardiovascular death exceeded 5% in a small subgroup of subjects with UACR higher than the 95-percentile of approximately 1.6 mg/mmol. Combined use of high UACR or high hsCRP identified a larger subgroup of 16% with high cardiovascular risk in which primary prevention may be advised despite low-moderate cardiovascular risk based on HeartScore. Furthermore, combined use of high UACR or high Nt-proBNP in subjects with known cardiovascular disease or diabetes identified a large subgroup of 48% with extremely high cardiovascular risk who should be referred for specialist care to optimize treatment.

  1. Understanding Suicide Risk: Identification of High Risk Groups during High Risk Times

    PubMed Central

    Overholser, James C.; Braden, Abby; Dieter, Lesa

    2012-01-01

    Background The assessment of suicide risk is a complex task for mental health professionals. Certain demographic groups are associated with completed suicide including males, divorced adults, and Caucasians. However, demographic variables alone provide a crude assessment of suicide risk. Psychiatric diagnosis and recent life events may improve the identification of high risk individuals. Method The current study evaluated 148 individuals who died by suicide compared to 257 adults who died suddenly from accidents or medical problems. Psychological autopsy was used to assess Axis I psychiatric diagnosis and recent stressful life events. Results Suicide completers were significantly more likely than comparison subjects to have a depressive disorder, a substance abuse disorder, and to have experienced interpersonal conflict in the months leading up to their death. A discriminant function analysis revealed that the combination of demographic variables, recent stressful life events, and psychiatric diagnoses best discriminated between suicide completers and comparison subjects. Conclusions Proper assessment of suicide risk should include a comprehensive evaluation of demographic characteristics, recent life stressors, and psychiatric diagnosis. PMID:22140004

  2. Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

    PubMed

    Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

    2016-04-01

    The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

  3. Screening high-risk patients and assisting in diagnosing anxiety in primary care: the Patient Health Questionnaire evaluated

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Questionnaires may help in detecting and diagnosing anxiety disorders in primary care. However, since utility of these questionnaires in target populations is rarely studied, the Patient Health Questionnaire anxiety modules (PHQ) were evaluated for use as: a) a screener in high-risk patients, and/or b) a case finder for general practitioners (GPs) to assist in diagnosing anxiety disorders. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was performed in 43 primary care practices in the Netherlands. The added value of the PHQ was assessed in two samples: 1) 170 patients at risk of anxiety disorders (or developing them) according to their electronic medical records (high-risk sample); 2) 141 patients identified as a possible ‘anxiety case’ by a GP (GP-identified sample). All patients completed the PHQ and were interviewed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric interview to classify DSM-IV anxiety disorders. Psychometric properties were calculated, and a logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the diagnostic value of the PHQ. Results Using only the screening questions of the PHQ, the area under the curve was 83% in the high-risk sample. In GP-identified patients the official algorithm showed the best characteristics with an area under the curve of 77%. Positive screening questions significantly increased the odds of an anxiety disorder diagnosis in high-risk patients (odds ratio = 23.4; 95% confidence interval 6.9 to 78.8) as did a positive algorithm in GP-identified patients (odds ratio = 13.9; 95% confidence interval 3.8 to 50.6). Conclusions The PHQ screening questions can be used to screen for anxiety disorders in high-risk primary care patients. In GP-identified patients, the benefit of the PHQ is less evident. PMID:23865984

  4. An Integrated Approach to Change the Outcome Part II: Targeted Neuromuscular Training Techniques to Reduce Identified ACL Injury Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Brent, Jensen L.; Hewett, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    Prior reports indicate that female athletes who demonstrate high knee abduction moments (KAMs) during landing are more responsive to neuromuscular training designed to reduce KAM. Identification of female athletes who demonstrate high KAM, which accurately identifies those at risk for noncontact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury, may be ideal for targeted neuromuscular training. Specific neuromuscular training targeted to the underlying biomechanical components that increase KAM may provide the most efficient and effective training strategy to reduce noncontact ACL injury risk. The purpose of the current commentary is to provide an integrative approach to identify and target mechanistic underpinnings to increased ACL injury in female athletes. Specific neuromuscular training techniques will be presented that address individual algorithm components related to high knee load landing patterns. If these integrated techniques are employed on a widespread basis, prevention strategies for noncontact ACL injury among young female athletes may prove both more effective and efficient. PMID:22580980

  5. Finding the High-Risk Patient in Primary Prevention Is Not as Easy as a Conventional Risk Score!

    PubMed

    Ambrose, John A; Acharya, Tushar; Roberts, Micah J

    2016-12-01

    Patients with coronary artery disease or its equivalent are an appropriate target for guideline-directed therapy. However, finding and treating the individuals at risk for myocardial infarction or sudden death in primary prevention has been problematic. Most initial cardiovascular events are acute syndromes, and only a minority of these occurs in those deemed high risk by contemporary algorithms. Even newer noninvasive modalities cannot detect a majority of those at risk. Furthermore, accurate and early detection of high risk/vulnerability does not guarantee event prevention. Until new tools can be identified, one should consider a few simplistic solutions. In addition to a greater emphasis on lifestyle, earlier use of statins than currently recommended and a direct assault on tobacco could go a long way in reducing acute syndromes and cardiovascular mortality. To achieve the tobacco goal, the medical community would have to be directly and communally engaged. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model.

    PubMed

    Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul Sf; Zhu, Tingshao

    2015-01-01

    Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric "Screening Efficiency" that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30%. Individuals in China with high suicide

  7. Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island Genetic Isolate Identifies Candidate Genes for CVD Risk Traits

    PubMed Central

    Benton, Miles C.; Lea, Rod A.; Macartney-Coxson, Donia; Carless, Melanie A.; Göring, Harald H.; Bellis, Claire; Hanna, Michelle; Eccles, David; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Curran, Joanne E.; Harper, Jacquie L.; Blangero, John; Griffiths, Lyn R.

    2013-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10−7) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations. PMID:24314549

  8. How to Identify High-Growth Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeiffer, Linda E.

    2015-01-01

    When researching school options, parents may want to look for schools with high-growth scores which, according to research, may be indicators of other characteristics such as programming, leadership, culture, and size. This quick guide offers parents tips on how to identify high-growth schools and what to ask when evaluating school options. An…

  9. Identifying and reducing risk factors related to trainee-client sexual misconduct.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, J C; Spruill, J

    1999-06-01

    Sexual misconduct involving therapists-in-training and their clients is addressed. Personal and situational factors that may constitute risk factors for the development of inappropriate sexual activity between trainees and their clients are identified. Although there may be certain characteristics that put particular students at risk for such involvement, the authors believe this risk is more strongly related to systemic, programmatic, and pedagogic characteristics of the environments in which students train. Examples include, respectively, the decline of concern over transference and countertransference, failure to include education about client-therapist sexual attraction and the consequences of sexual misconduct in graduate psychology curricula, and the reluctance of supervisors to deal straightforwardly with trainees' sexual feelings. Suggestions for reducing risks for client-therapist sexual misconduct are directed toward these situational factors.

  10. Hospital Readmission and Social Risk Factors Identified from Physician Notes.

    PubMed

    Navathe, Amol S; Zhong, Feiran; Lei, Victor J; Chang, Frank Y; Sordo, Margarita; Topaz, Maxim; Navathe, Shamkant B; Rocha, Roberto A; Zhou, Li

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the prevalence of seven social factors using physician notes as compared to claims and structured electronic health records (EHRs) data and the resulting association with 30-day readmissions. A multihospital academic health system in southeastern Massachusetts. An observational study of 49,319 patients with cardiovascular disease admitted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2013, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for patient characteristics. All-payer claims, EHR data, and physician notes extracted from a centralized clinical registry. All seven social characteristics were identified at the highest rates in physician notes. For example, we identified 14,872 patient admissions with poor social support in physician notes, increasing the prevalence from 0.4 percent using ICD-9 codes and structured EHR data to 16.0 percent. Compared to an 18.6 percent baseline readmission rate, risk-adjusted analysis showed higher readmission risk for patients with housing instability (readmission rate 24.5 percent; p < .001), depression (20.6 percent; p < .001), drug abuse (20.2 percent; p = .01), and poor social support (20.0 percent; p = .01). The seven social risk factors studied are substantially more prevalent than represented in administrative data. Automated methods for analyzing physician notes may enable better identification of patients with social needs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  11. High-school football and late-life risk of neurodegenerative syndromes, 1956–1970

    PubMed Central

    Janssen, Pieter HH; Mandrekar, Jay; Mielke, Michelle M; Ahlskog, J. Eric; Boeve, Bradley F; Josephs, Keith; Savica, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND Repeated head trauma has been associated with risk of neurodegenerative diseases. Few studies have evaluated the long-term risk of neurodegenerative diseases in collision sports like football. OBJECTIVE To assess whether athletes who played American varsity high-school football between 1956 and 1970 have an increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases later in life. PATIENTS AND METHODS We identified all male varsity football players between 1956 and 1970 in the public high schools of Rochester, Minnesota, compared to non-football-playing male varsity swimmers, wrestlers or basketball players. Using the records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we ascertained the incidence of late-life neurodegenerative diseases: dementia, parkinsonism, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We also recorded medical record-documented head trauma during high school years. RESULTS We identified 296 varsity football players and 190 athletes engaging in other sports. Football players had an increased risk of medically documented head trauma, especially if they played football for more than one year. Compared to non-football athletes, football players did not have an increased risk of neurodegenerative disease overall, nor the individual conditions of dementia, parkinsonism, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. CONCLUSION In this community based study, varsity high school football players from 1956 to 1970 did not have an increased risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases compared with athletes engaged in other varsity sports. This was from an era where there was a generally nihilistic view of concussion dangers, less protective equipment and without prohibition of spearing (head-first tackling). However, size and strength of players from prior eras may not be comparable to current high-school athletes. PMID:27979411

  12. Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

    PubMed Central

    Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel

    2015-01-01

    Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk. Methods Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369

  13. Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease by the Framingham-REGICOR Equation in the High-Risk PREDIMED Cohort: Impact of the Mediterranean Diet Across Different Risk Strata.

    PubMed

    Amor, Antonio J; Serra-Mir, Mercè; Martínez-González, Miguel A; Corella, Dolores; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Fitó, Montserrat; Estruch, Ramón; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Arós, Fernando; Babio, Nancy; Ros, Emilio; Ortega, Emilio

    2017-03-13

    The usefulness of cardiovascular disease (CVD) predictive equations in different populations is debatable. We assessed the efficacy of the Framingham-REGICOR scale, validated for the Spanish population, to identify future CVD in participants, who were predefined as being at high-risk in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study-a nutrition-intervention primary prevention trial-and the impact of adherence to the Mediterranean diet on CVD across risk categories. In a post hoc analysis, we assessed the CVD predictive value of baseline estimated risk in 5966 PREDIMED participants (aged 55-74 years, 57% women; 48% with type 2 diabetes mellitus). Major CVD events, the primary PREDIMED end point, were an aggregate of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for major CVD events and effect modification from the Mediterranean diet intervention across risk strata (low, moderate, high, very high). The Framingham-REGICOR classification of PREDIMED participants was 25.1% low risk, 44.5% moderate risk, and 30.4% high or very high risk. During 6-year follow-up, 188 major CVD events occurred. Hazard ratios for major CVD events increased in parallel with estimated risk (2.68, 4.24, and 6.60 for moderate, high, and very high risk), particularly in men (7.60, 13.16, and 15.85, respectively, versus 2.16, 2.28, and 3.51, respectively, in women). Yet among those with low or moderate risk, 32.2% and 74.3% of major CVD events occurred in men and women, respectively. Mediterranean diet adherence was associated with CVD risk reduction regardless of risk strata ( P >0.4 for interaction). Incident CVD increased in parallel with estimated risk in the PREDIMED cohort, but most events occurred in non-high-risk categories, particularly in women. Until predictive tools are improved, promotion of the Mediterranean diet might be useful to reduce CVD independent of baseline risk. URL: http

  14. Management of high-risk Myeloma: an evidence-based review of treatment strategies.

    PubMed

    Lehners, Nicola; Hayden, Patrick J; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Raab, Marc-Steffen

    2016-08-01

    Despite the progress made in the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma over recent decades, a significant cohort with high-risk disease as defined by specific clinical and genetic criteria continue to respond poorly to standard treatment. These patients represent a particular challenge to the treating physician and require early identification as well as personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the prognostic impact of adverse clinical, radiological and genetic factors, evaluate available scoring systems and highlight key aspects of the therapeutic management of high-risk myeloma. MEDLINE and recent scientific meetings' databases were searched for the keywords 'high-risk' and 'multiple myeloma' and relevant studies relating to both diagnostic and therapeutic approaches were identified. Expert commentary: A case is made for intensive induction using combinations of novel agents, early high-dose therapy supported by autologous stem cell transplantation and the widespread use of maintenance therapies. Novel therapeutic options, especially in the field of immunotherapy, are currently explored in clinical trials and have the potential to further improve outcomes for patients with high-risk multiple myeloma.

  15. A novel diagnostic protocol to identify patients suitable for discharge after a single high-sensitivity troponin

    PubMed Central

    Carlton, Edward W; Cullen, Louise; Than, Martin; Gamble, James; Khattab, Ahmed; Greaves, Kim

    2015-01-01

    Objective To establish whether a novel accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) for suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) could successfully identify low-risk patients suitable for discharge after a single high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT) taken at presentation to the emergency department. We also compared the diagnostic accuracy of this ADP with strategies using initial undetectable hs-cTnT. Methods This prospective observational study evaluated the ability of the Triage Rule-out Using high-Sensitivity Troponin (TRUST) ADP to identify low-risk patients with suspected ACS. The ADP incorporated a single presentation hs-cTnT of <14 ng/L, a non-ischaemic ECG and a modified Goldman risk score. Diagnostic performance of the ADP was compared with the detection limit cut-offs of hs-cTnT (<5 ng/L and <3 ng/L). The primary end point was fatal/non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI) within 30 days. Results 960 participants were recruited, mean age 58.0 years, 80 (8.3%) had an AMI. The TRUST ADP classified 382 (39.8%) as low-risk with a sensitivity for identifying AMI of 98.8% (95% CI 92.5% to 99.9%). hs-cTnT detection limits (<5 ng/L and <3 ng/L) had a sensitivity of 100% (94.3 to 100) and 100% (94.4 to 100), respectively. The TRUST ADP identified more patients suitable for early discharge at 39.8% vs 29.3% (<5 ng/L) and 7.9% (<3 ng/L) (p<0.001) with a lower false-positive rate for AMI detection; specificity 43.3% (95% CI 42.7% to 43.4%) vs 32.0% (95% CI 31.5% to 32.0%) and 8.6% (95% CI 8.1% to 8.6%), respectively. Conclusions The TRUST ADP, which incorporates structured risk-assessment and a single presentation hs-cTnT blood draw, has potential to allow early discharge in 40% of patients with suspected ACS and has greater clinical utility than undetectable hs-cTnT strategies. Trial registration number ISRCTN No. 21109279. PMID:25691511

  16. Elevated hardness of peripheral gland on real-time elastography is an independent marker for high-risk prostate cancers.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qi; Yao, Jing; Cai, Yehua; Zhang, Limin; Wu, Yishuo; Xiong, Jingyu; Shi, Jun; Wang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Yi

    2017-12-01

    To examine the role of quantitative real-time elastography (RTE) features on differentiation between high-risk prostate cancer (PCA) and non-high-risk prostatic diseases in the initial transperineal biopsy setting. We retrospectively included 103 patients with suspicious PCA who underwent both RTE and initial transperineal prostate biopsy. Patients were grouped into high-risk and non-high-risk categories according to the D'Amico's risk stratification. With computer assistance based on MATLAB programming, three features were extracted from RTE, i.e., the median hardness within peripheral gland (PG) (H med ), the ratio of the median hardness within PG to that outside PG (H ratio ), and the ratio of the hard area within PG to the total PG area (H ar ). A multiple regression model incorporating an RTE feature, age, transrectal ultrasound finding, and prostate volume was used to identify markers for high-risk PCA. Forty-seven patients (45.6%) were diagnosed with PCA and 34 (33.0%) were diagnosed with high-risk PCA. Three RTE features were all statistically higher in high-risk PCA than in non-high-risk diseases (p < 0.001), indicating that the PGs in high-risk PCA patients were harder than those in non-high-risk patients. A high H ratio , high age, and low prostate volume were found to be independent markers for PCAs (p < 0.05), among which the high H ratio was the only independent marker for high-risk PCAs (p = 0.012). When predicting high-risk PCAs, the multiple regression achieved an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.755, sensitivity of 73.5%, and specificity of 71.0%. The elevated hardness of PG identified high-risk PCA and served as an independent marker of high-risk PCA. As a non-invasive imaging modality, the RTE could be potentially used in routine clinical practice for the detection of high-risk PCA to decrease unnecessary biopsies and reduce overtreatment.

  17. Hazardous drinking and military community functioning: identifying mediating risk factors.

    PubMed

    Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Slep, Amy M Smith

    2011-08-01

    Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may be most effective in targeting community functioning (e.g., support from formal agencies, community cohesion) that impacts hazardous drinking via other proximal risk factors. The goal of the current study is to inform community-wide prevention efforts by testing a model of community functioning and mediating risk factors of hazardous drinking among active duty U.S. Air Force personnel. A large, representative survey sample of U.S. Air Force active duty members (N = 52,780) was collected at 82 bases worldwide. Hazardous drinking was assessed with the widely used Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, de la Fuente, & Grant, 1993). A variety of individual, family, and community measures were also assessed. Structural equation modeling was used to test a hypothesized model of community functioning, mediating risk factors and hazardous drinking. Depressive symptoms, perceived financial stress, and satisfaction with the U.S. Air Force were identified as significant mediators of the link between community functioning and hazardous drinking for men and women. Relationship satisfaction was also identified as a mediator for men. These results provide a framework for further community prevention research and suggest that prevention efforts geared at increasing aspects of community functioning (e.g., the U.S. Air Force Community Capacity model) may indirectly lead to reductions in hazardous drinking through other proximal risk factors.

  18. Project risk management in the construction of high-rise buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titarenko, Boris; Hasnaoui, Amir; Titarenko, Roman; Buzuk, Liliya

    2018-03-01

    This paper shows the project risk management methods, which allow to better identify risks in the construction of high-rise buildings and to manage them throughout the life cycle of the project. One of the project risk management processes is a quantitative analysis of risks. The quantitative analysis usually includes the assessment of the potential impact of project risks and their probabilities. This paper shows the most popular methods of risk probability assessment and tries to indicate the advantages of the robust approach over the traditional methods. Within the framework of the project risk management model a robust approach of P. Huber is applied and expanded for the tasks of regression analysis of project data. The suggested algorithms used to assess the parameters in statistical models allow to obtain reliable estimates. A review of the theoretical problems of the development of robust models built on the methodology of the minimax estimates was done and the algorithm for the situation of asymmetric "contamination" was developed.

  19. An Educational System to Help Students Assess Website Features and Identify High-Risk Websites

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kajiyama, Tomoko; Echizen, Isao

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective educational system to help students assess Web site risk by providing an environment in which students can better understand a Web site's features and determine the risks of accessing the Web site for themselves. Design/methodology/approach: The authors have enhanced a prototype…

  20. Risk of suicide in high risk pregnancy: an exploratory study.

    PubMed

    Benute, Gláucia Rosana Guerra; Nomura, Roseli Mieko Yamamoto; Jorge, Vanessa Marques Ferreira; Nonnenmacher, Daniele; Fráguas Junior, Renério; Lucia, Mara Cristina Souza de; Zugaib, Marcelo

    2011-01-01

    To identify the risk of suicidal behavior in high-risk pregnant women at a public hospital in São Paulo. We conducted a semi-structured interview with each of the participants (n = 268) through a previously prepared questionnaire. Risk of suicidal behavior was assessed by the Portuguese version of PRIME-MD. The mean age of patients was 29 years (SD = 0.507) and gestation period was 30 weeks (SD = 0.556). Of the total sample, specific risk of suicide was found in 5% (n = 14). Of these, 85% have a stable relationship (married or cohabitating), the pregnancy was planned in 50% of cases, and 71% have no religion or professional activities. The correlation of risk of suicide with data from marital status, planned birth, age, education, professional practice, risk of prematurity, and religion showed that having a religion is statistically significant (p = 0.012). There were no positive associations for any of the other selected variables when compared with the risk of suicide. By correlating the risk of suicide with other characteristic symptoms of major depression, there was statistical significance in the sample with regard to insomnia or hypersomnia (p = 0.003), fatigue or loss of energy (p = 0.001), decreased or increased appetite (p = 0.005), less interest in daily activities (p = 0.000), depressed mood (p = 0.000), feelings of worthlessness or guilt (p = 0.000), decreased concentration (p = 0.002), and agitation or psychomotor retardation (p = 0.002). We found that religion can be a protective factor against suicidal behavior. Besides providing a social support network needed by women during pregnancy, religion supports belief in life after death and in a loving God, giving purpose to life and self esteem and providing models for coping with crises. The results show the importance of prevention and early diagnosis of suicidal behavior, since suicide is an attempt to move from one sphere to another by force, seeking to solve what seems impossible.

  1. Combined Plasma Elevation of CRP, Intestinal-Type Fatty Acid-Binding Protein (I-FABP), and sCD14 Identify Older Patients at High Risk for Health Care-Associated Infections.

    PubMed

    Paillaud, Elena; Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie; Plonquet, Anne; Foucat, Emile; Fournier, Bénédicte; Boutin, Emmanuelle; Le Thuaut, Aurélie; Levy, Yves; Hue, Sophie

    2018-01-16

    We hypothesized that low-grade inflammation was driven by microbial translocation and associated with an increased risk of health care-associated infections (HAIs). We included 121 patients aged 75 years or over in this prospective cohort study. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), I-FABP, and sCD14-as markers for low-grade inflammation, intestinal epithelial barrier integrity, and monocyte activation, respectively-were measured at admission. HAIs occurred during hospitalization in 62 (51%) patients. Elevated hs-CRP (≥6.02 mg/L, ie, the median) was associated with a significantly higher HAI risk when I-FABP was in the highest quartile (odds ratio [OR], 4; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.39-11.49; p = .010). In patients with hs-CRP elevation and highest-quartile I-FABP, sCD14 elevation (≥0.65 µg/mL, ie, the median) was associated with an 11-fold higher HAI risk (OR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.28-51.1; p = .003). Multivariate analyses adjusted for invasive procedures and comorbidities did not change the associations linking the three markers to the HAI risk. Increased levels of hs-CRP, I-FABP, and sCD14 may reflect loss of intestinal epithelial barrier integrity with microbial translocation leading to monocyte activation and low-grade inflammation. In our cohort, these markers identified patients at high risk for HAIs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. High School Football and Late-Life Risk of Neurodegenerative Syndromes, 1956-1970.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Pieter H H; Mandrekar, Jay; Mielke, Michelle M; Ahlskog, J Eric; Boeve, Bradley F; Josephs, Keith; Savica, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    To assess whether athletes who played American varsity high school football between 1956 and 1970 have an increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases later in life. We identified all male varsity football players between 1956 and 1970 in the public high schools of Rochester, Minnesota, and non-football-playing male varsity swimmers, wrestlers, and basketball players. Using the medical records linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project, we ascertained the incidence of late-life neurodegenerative diseases: dementia, parkinsonism, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We also recorded medical record-documented head trauma during high school years. We identified 296 varsity football players and 190 athletes engaging in other sports. Football players had an increased risk of medically documented head trauma, especially if they played football for more than 1 year. Compared with nonfootball athletes, football players did not have an increased risk of neurodegenerative disease overall or of the individual conditions of dementia, parkinsonism, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In this community-based study, varsity high school football players from 1956 to 1970 did not have an increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases compared with athletes engaged in other varsity sports. This was from an era when there was a generally nihilistic view of concussion dangers, less protective equipment, and no prohibition of spearing (head-first tackling). However, the size and strength of players from previous eras may not be comparable with that of current high school athletes. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Identifying Risk for Acute Kidney Injury in Infants and Children Following Cardiac Arrest.

    PubMed

    Neumayr, Tara M; Gill, Jeff; Fitzgerald, Julie C; Gazit, Avihu Z; Pineda, Jose A; Berg, Robert A; Dean, J Michael; Moler, Frank W; Doctor, Allan

    2017-10-01

    Our goal was to identify risk factors for acute kidney injury in children surviving cardiac arrest. Retrospective analysis of a public access dataset. Fifteen children's hospitals associated with the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network. Two hundred ninety-six subjects between 1 day and 18 years old who experienced in-hospital or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest between July 1, 2003, and December 31, 2004. None. Our primary outcome was development of acute kidney injury as defined by the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. An ordinal probit model was developed. We found six critical explanatory variables, including total number of epinephrine doses, postcardiac arrest blood pressure, arrest location, presence of a chronic lung condition, pH, and presence of an abnormal baseline creatinine. Total number of epinephrine doses received as well as rate of epinephrine dosing impacted acute kidney injury risk and severity of acute kidney injury. This study is the first to identify risk factors for acute kidney injury in children after cardiac arrest. Our findings regarding the impact of epinephrine dosing are of particular interest and suggest potential for epinephrine toxicity with regard to acute kidney injury. The ability to identify and potentially modify risk factors for acute kidney injury after cardiac arrest may lead to improved morbidity and mortality in this population.

  4. Femoral Access PCI in a Default Radial Center Identifies High-Risk Patients With Poor Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Uddin, Muezz; Bundhoo, Shantu; Mitra, Rito; Ossei-Gerning, Nicholas; Morris, Keith; Anderson, Richard; Kinnaird, Tim

    2015-10-01

    Increasingly the trans-radial route (TRR) is preferred over the trans-femoral route (TFR) for PCI. However, even in high volume default TRR centers a cohort of patients undergo TFR PCI. We examined the demographics, procedural characteristics, and outcomes of patients undergoing PCI via the TF. The patient demographics, procedural data, and outcomes of 5,379 consecutive patients undergoing PCI at a default radial center between 2009 and 2012 were examined. Major bleeding (MB) was classified by ACUITY and BARC definitions. A total of 559 (10.4%) patients underwent PCI via the TFR and 4,820 patients via the TRR (89.6%). Baseline variables associated with TFR were shock, previous CABG, chronic total occlusion intervention, rotablation/laser use, female sex, and renal failure. Sixty-five patients of the TFR cohort (11.6%) experienced MB with 27 (41.5%) being access site related. MB was significantly more frequent than in the radial cohort. The variables independently associated with MB in the TFR cohort were renal failure, acute presentation, shock, and age. In the TFR, patients with MB mortality was high at 30 days (17.2% vs 2.6% for no MB, P < 0.0001) and at 1 year (37.6% vs 5.0%, P < 0.0001). Shock and MB were highly predictive of 30 day and 12 month mortality. In a default radial PCI center 10% of patients undergo PCI via the femoral artery. These patients have high baseline bleeding risk and undergo complex interventions. As a result the incidence of major bleeding, transfusion and death are high. Alternative strategies are required to optimize outcomes in this select group. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Identifying Falls Risk Screenings Not Documented with Administrative Codes Using Natural Language Processing

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Vivienne J; Walker, Tina D; Warren, Robert W; Jenny, Peggy B; Meystre, Stephane; Lenert, Leslie A

    2017-01-01

    Quality reporting that relies on coded administrative data alone may not completely and accurately depict providers’ performance. To assess this concern with a test case, we developed and evaluated a natural language processing (NLP) approach to identify falls risk screenings documented in clinical notes of patients without coded falls risk screening data. Extracting information from 1,558 clinical notes (mainly progress notes) from 144 eligible patients, we generated a lexicon of 38 keywords relevant to falls risk screening, 26 terms for pre-negation, and 35 terms for post-negation. The NLP algorithm identified 62 (out of the 144) patients who falls risk screening documented only in clinical notes and not coded. Manual review confirmed 59 patients as true positives and 77 patients as true negatives. Our NLP approach scored 0.92 for precision, 0.95 for recall, and 0.93 for F-measure. These results support the concept of utilizing NLP to enhance healthcare quality reporting. PMID:29854264

  6. CT Scan Screening for Lung Cancer: Risk Factors for Nodules and Malignancy in a High-Risk Urban Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Greenberg, Alissa K.; Lu, Feng; Goldberg, Judith D.; Eylers, Ellen; Tsay, Jun-Chieh; Yie, Ting-An; Naidich, David; McGuinness, Georgeann; Pass, Harvey; Tchou-Wong, Kam-Meng; Addrizzo-Harris, Doreen; Chachoua, Abraham; Crawford, Bernard; Rom, William N.

    2012-01-01

    Background Low-dose computed tomography (CT) for lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality. The National Lung Screening Trial reported a 20% reduction in lung cancer mortality in high-risk smokers. However, CT scanning is extremely sensitive and detects non-calcified nodules (NCNs) in 24–50% of subjects, suggesting an unacceptably high false-positive rate. We hypothesized that by reviewing demographic, clinical and nodule characteristics, we could identify risk factors associated with the presence of nodules on screening CT, and with the probability that a NCN was malignant. Methods We performed a longitudinal lung cancer biomarker discovery trial (NYU LCBC) that included low-dose CT-screening of high-risk individuals over 50 years of age, with more than 20 pack-year smoking histories, living in an urban setting, and with a potential for asbestos exposure. We used case-control studies to identify risk factors associated with the presence of nodules (n = 625) versus no nodules (n = 557), and lung cancer patients (n = 30) versus benign nodules (n = 128). Results The NYU LCBC followed 1182 study subjects prospectively over a 10-year period. We found 52% to have NCNs >4 mm on their baseline screen. Most of the nodules were stable, and 9.7% of solid and 26.2% of sub-solid nodules resolved. We diagnosed 30 lung cancers, 26 stage I. Three patients had synchronous primary lung cancers or multifocal disease. Thus, there were 33 lung cancers: 10 incident, and 23 prevalent. A sub-group of the prevalent group were stable for a prolonged period prior to diagnosis. These were all stage I at diagnosis and 12/13 were adenocarcinomas. Conclusions NCNs are common among CT-screened high-risk subjects and can often be managed conservatively. Risk factors for malignancy included increasing age, size and number of nodules, reduced FEV1 and FVC, and increased pack-years smoking. A sub-group of screen-detected cancers are slow-growing and may contribute to

  7. A Framework for Widespread Replication of a Highly Spatially Resolved Childhood Lead Exposure Risk Model

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M. Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

    2008-01-01

    Background Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels < 10 μg/dL highlights the need for improved exposure prevention interventions. Objectives Geographic information system–based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. Methods We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. Results The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities. PMID:19079729

  8. [Theoretical model study about the application risk of high risk medical equipment].

    PubMed

    Shang, Changhao; Yang, Fenghui

    2014-11-01

    Research for establishing a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. Regard the applying site as a system which contains some sub-systems. Every sub-system consists of some risk estimating indicators. After quantizing of each indicator, the quantized values are multiplied with corresponding weight and then the products are accumulated. Hence, the risk estimating value of each subsystem is attained. Follow the calculating method, the risk estimating values of each sub-system are multiplied with corresponding weights and then the product is accumulated. The cumulative sum is the status indicator of the high risk medical equipment at applying site. The status indicator reflects the applying risk of the medical equipment at applying site. Establish a risk monitoring theoretical model of high risk medical equipment at applying site. The model can monitor the applying risk of high risk medical equipment at applying site dynamically and specially.

  9. Genome-wide association study identifies multiple loci associated with bladder cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Figueroa, Jonine D.; Ye, Yuanqing; Siddiq, Afshan; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Kooperberg, Charles; Cussenot, Olivier; Benhamou, Simone; Prescott, Jennifer; Porru, Stefano; Dinney, Colin P.; Malats, Núria; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark; Jacobs, Eric J.; Albanes, Demetrius; Wang, Zhaoming; Deng, Xiang; Chung, Charles C.; Tang, Wei; Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Ljungberg, Börje; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Krogh, Vittorio; Dorronsoro, Miren; Travis, Ruth; Tjønneland, Anne; Brenan, Paul; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Riboli, Elio; Conti, David; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Stern, Mariana C.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Van Den Berg, David; Yuan, Jian-Min; Hohensee, Chancellor; Rodabough, Rebecca; Cancel-Tassin, Geraldine; Roupret, Morgan; Comperat, Eva; Chen, Constance; De Vivo, Immaculata; Giovannucci, Edward; Hunter, David J.; Kraft, Peter; Lindstrom, Sara; Carta, Angela; Pavanello, Sofia; Arici, Cecilia; Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Kamat, Ashish M.; Lerner, Seth P.; Barton Grossman, H.; Lin, Jie; Gu, Jian; Pu, Xia; Hutchinson, Amy; Burdette, Laurie; Wheeler, William; Kogevinas, Manolis; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Carrato, Alfredo; García-Closas, Reina; Lloreta, Josep; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R.; Johnson, Alison; Schned, Alan; Armenti, Karla R.; Hosain, G.M.; Andriole, Gerald; Grubb, Robert; Black, Amanda; Ryan Diver, W.; Gapstur, Susan M.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Haiman, Chris A.; Landi, Maria T.; Caporaso, Neil; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Vineis, Paolo; Wu, Xifeng; Silverman, Debra T.; Chanock, Stephen; Rothman, Nathaniel

    2014-01-01

    Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 11 independent susceptibility loci associated with bladder cancer risk. To discover additional risk variants, we conducted a new GWAS of 2422 bladder cancer cases and 5751 controls, followed by a meta-analysis with two independently published bladder cancer GWAS, resulting in a combined analysis of 6911 cases and 11 814 controls of European descent. TaqMan genotyping of 13 promising single nucleotide polymorphisms with P < 1 × 10−5 was pursued in a follow-up set of 801 cases and 1307 controls. Two new loci achieved genome-wide statistical significance: rs10936599 on 3q26.2 (P = 4.53 × 10−9) and rs907611 on 11p15.5 (P = 4.11 × 10−8). Two notable loci were also identified that approached genome-wide statistical significance: rs6104690 on 20p12.2 (P = 7.13 × 10−7) and rs4510656 on 6p22.3 (P = 6.98 × 10−7); these require further studies for confirmation. In conclusion, our study has identified new susceptibility alleles for bladder cancer risk that require fine-mapping and laboratory investigation, which could further understanding into the biological underpinnings of bladder carcinogenesis. PMID:24163127

  10. Sources of HIV-Prevention Information for Individuals at High Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sagrestano, Lynda M.; Heiss-Wendt, Renate M.; Mizan, Ainon N.; Kittleson, Mark J.; Sarvela, Paul D.

    2001-01-01

    Identified the best methods of reaching people at high risk with HIV-prevention messages. Data from men who had sex with men, injection drug users, sex workers, HIV-positive people, heterosexuals, migrant workers, and perinatal women indicated that over 70 percent were exposed to HIV-prevention messages, though sources of exposure varied by risk…

  11. Rapid COJEC versus standard induction therapies for high-risk neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Peinemann, Frank; Tushabe, Doreen A; van Dalen, Elvira C; Berthold, Frank

    2015-05-19

    Reviews of Interventions. We used the five GRADE considerations, study limitations, consistency of effect, imprecision, indirectness, and publication bias, to judge the quality of the evidence. We downgraded for risk of bias and imprecision We identified one randomized controlled trial (CCLG-ENSG-5) that included 262 patients with high-risk neuroblastoma who were randomized to receive either rapid COJEC (N = 130) or standard OPEC/COJEC (N = 132) induction chemotherapy. We graded the evidence as low quality; we downgraded for risk of bias and imprecision.There was no clear evidence of a difference between the treatment groups in complete response (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 1.38), treatment-related mortality (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.33 to 4.39), overall survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.83, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.10), and event-free survival (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.13). We calculated the HRs using the complete follow-up period of the trial.Febrile neutropenia (two or more episodes), proven fungal infections, septicemia (one or more episodes), gastrointestinal toxicity (grade 3 or 4), renal toxicity (glomerular filtration rate < 80 ml/min per body surface area of 1.73 m(2)), neurological toxicity (grade 3 or 4), and ototoxicity (Brock grade 2 to 4) were addressed as early toxicities (during pre-operative chemotherapy). For febrile neutropenia, septicemia, and renal toxicity, a statistically significant difference in favor of the standard treatment arm was identified; for all other early toxicities no clear evidence of a difference between treatment groups was identified. With regard to late non-hematological toxicities (median follow-up 12.7 years; range 6.9 to 16.5 years), the study provided data on any complication, renal toxicity (glomerular filtration rate < 80 ml/min per body surface area of 1.73m(2)), ototoxicity (Brock grade 1 to 4), endocrine complications, neurocognitive complications (i.e. behavioral, speech, or learning difficulties), and

  12. Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

    2018-01-01

    Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

  13. Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

    PubMed

    Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

    2017-06-03

    This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

  14. Extension of microRNA expression pattern associated with high-risk neuroblastoma.

    PubMed

    Bienertova-Vasku, Julie; Mazanek, Pavel; Hezova, Renata; Curdova, Anna; Nekvindova, Jana; Kren, Leos; Sterba, Jaroslav; Slaby, Ondrej

    2013-08-01

    Clinical behavior of neuroblastoma (NBL) is remarkably heterogeneous, as it ranges from spontaneous regression to aggressive clinical phenotype and death. There is increasing body of evidence demonstrating that microRNAs could be considered the potential biomarkers for clinical applications in NBL. In this report, we focus on molecular characterization of high-risk as well as low-risk and intermediate-risk NBL cases in the context of the microRNA expression profile that is specific for the given risk category of the disease. We investigated a total of 30 NBL patients, out of whom there were 19 patients with low- to intermediate-risk and 11 with high-risk NBLs as defined by the Clinical Oncology Group. We determined the expression profiles of 754 microRNAs (miRNAs), whereas the miRNA expression levels were normalized to RNU44, mean expression levels were calculated, and data were analyzed by use of the microarray biostatistical approaches. We identified the signature of 38 miRNAs differentially expressed between these groups of NBL patients (P < 0.05): 17 miRNAs were upregulated and 21 miRNAs were downregulated in the tumors of high-risk NBL patients. We confirm some of the previous observations and we report several new microRNAs associated with aggressive NBL, both being relevant subjects for further translational validation and functional studies.

  15. [Maternal metabolic diseases related to pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity in mexican women with high risk pregnancy].

    PubMed

    Hernández-Higareda, Salvador; Pérez-Pérez, Omar-Alejandro; Balderas-Peña, Luz-Ma-Adriana; Martínez-Herrera, Brenda-Eugenia; Salcedo-Rocha, Ana-Leticia; Ramírez-Conchas, Rosa-Emilia

    Pre-pregnancy obesity has been proposed as a risk factor related to gestational diabetes and hypertensive disorders during pregnancy. Identify pregnancy related diseases associated with pre-pregnancy obesity as a risk factor ina high risk preganancy patient population. 600 patients whose pre-pregnancy obesity had been assessed as a high risk factor were included in the study. The means, standard deviation, median, interquartile intervals, Pearson and Spearman correlation and logistic regression to estimate risk with the odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The mean pre-pregnancy body mass index was 29.59 ± 6.42 kg/m 2 . The mean for recommended pregnancy weight gain was 2.31 ± 1.03 kg, but the mean of real weight gain was 8.91 ± 6.84 kg. A significant correlation between pre-pregnancy obesity and family history of diabetes mellitus (p=0.000), systemic hypertension (p=0.003), cardiac diseases (p=0.000), dyslipidemia (p=0.000) and obesity (p=0.000) was identified. Pre-pregnancy obesity was identified as a risk factor for the development of gestational diabetes (OR: 1.95; IC95%: 1.39 to 2.76; p=0.000) in this kind of patient. 75% of high risk pregnancy women in a high specialty hospital in West Mexico are overweight or obese when they become pregnant. These are risk factors in the development of gestational diabetes. Copyright © 2016 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  16. Evolutionary Action Score of TP53 Identifies High-Risk Mutations Associated with Decreased Survival and Increased Distant Metastases in Head and Neck Cancer.

    PubMed

    Neskey, David M; Osman, Abdullah A; Ow, Thomas J; Katsonis, Panagiotis; McDonald, Thomas; Hicks, Stephanie C; Hsu, Teng-Kuei; Pickering, Curtis R; Ward, Alexandra; Patel, Ameeta; Yordy, John S; Skinner, Heath D; Giri, Uma; Sano, Daisuke; Story, Michael D; Beadle, Beth M; El-Naggar, Adel K; Kies, Merrill S; William, William N; Caulin, Carlos; Frederick, Mitchell; Kimmel, Marek; Myers, Jeffrey N; Lichtarge, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    TP53 is the most frequently altered gene in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, with mutations occurring in over two-thirds of cases, but the prognostic significance of these mutations remains elusive. In the current study, we evaluated a novel computational approach termed evolutionary action (EAp53) to stratify patients with tumors harboring TP53 mutations as high or low risk, and validated this system in both in vivo and in vitro models. Patients with high-risk TP53 mutations had the poorest survival outcomes and the shortest time to the development of distant metastases. Tumor cells expressing high-risk TP53 mutations were more invasive and tumorigenic and they exhibited a higher incidence of lung metastases. We also documented an association between the presence of high-risk mutations and decreased expression of TP53 target genes, highlighting key cellular pathways that are likely to be dysregulated by this subset of p53 mutations that confer particularly aggressive tumor behavior. Overall, our work validated EAp53 as a novel computational tool that may be useful in clinical prognosis of tumors harboring p53 mutations. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  17. Disrupted latent inhibition in individuals at ultra high-risk for developing psychosis.

    PubMed

    Kraus, Michael; Rapisarda, Attilio; Lam, Max; Thong, Jamie Y J; Lee, Jimmy; Subramaniam, Mythily; Collinson, Simon L; Chong, Siow Ann; Keefe, Richard S E

    2016-12-01

    The addition of off-the-shelf cognitive measures to established prodromal criteria has resulted in limited improvement in the prediction of conversion to psychosis. Tests that assess cognitive processes central to schizophrenia might better identify those at highest risk. The latent inhibition paradigm assesses a subject's tendency to ignore irrelevant stimuli, a process integral to healthy perceptual and cognitive function that has been hypothesized to be a key deficit underlying the development of schizophrenia. In this study, 142 young people at ultra high-risk for developing psychosis and 105 controls were tested on a within-subject latent inhibition paradigm. Additionally, we later inquired about the strategy that each subject employed to complete the test, and further investigated the relationship between reported strategy and the extent of latent inhibition exhibited. Unlike controls, ultra high-risk subjects did not demonstrate a significant latent inhibition effect. This difference between groups became greater when controlling for strategy. The lack of latent inhibition effect in our ultra high-risk sample suggests that individuals at ultra high-risk for psychosis are impaired in their allocation of attentional resources based on past predictive value of repeated stimuli. This fundamental deficit in the allocation of attention may contribute to the broader array of cognitive impairments and clinical symptoms displayed by individuals at ultra high-risk for psychosis.

  18. Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

    PubMed

    Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

    2016-09-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

  19. The Cost-Effectiveness of High-Risk Lung Cancer Screening and Drivers of Program Efficiency.

    PubMed

    Cressman, Sonya; Peacock, Stuart J; Tammemägi, Martin C; Evans, William K; Leighl, Natasha B; Goffin, John R; Tremblay, Alain; Liu, Geoffrey; Manos, Daria; MacEachern, Paul; Bhatia, Rick; Puksa, Serge; Nicholas, Garth; McWilliams, Annette; Mayo, John R; Yee, John; English, John C; Pataky, Reka; McPherson, Emily; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Johnston, Michael R; Schmidt, Heidi; Shepherd, Frances A; Soghrati, Kam; Amjadi, Kayvan; Burrowes, Paul; Couture, Christian; Sekhon, Harmanjatinder S; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Goss, Glenwood; Ionescu, Diana N; Hwang, David M; Martel, Simon; Sin, Don D; Tan, Wan C; Urbanski, Stefan; Xu, Zhaolin; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

    2017-08-01

    Lung cancer risk prediction models have the potential to make programs more affordable; however, the economic evidence is limited. Participants in the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST) were retrospectively identified with the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. The high-risk subgroup was assessed for lung cancer incidence and demographic characteristics compared with those in the low-risk subgroup and the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan), which is an observational study that was high-risk-selected in Canada. A comparison of high-risk screening versus standard care was made with a decision-analytic model using data from the NLST with Canadian cost data from screening and treatment in the PanCan study. Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty and identify drivers of program efficiency. Use of the risk prediction tool developed from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial with a threshold set at 2% over 6 years would have reduced the number of individuals who needed to be screened in the NLST by 81%. High-risk screening participants in the NLST had more adverse demographic characteristics than their counterparts in the PanCan study. High-risk screening would cost $20,724 (in 2015 Canadian dollars) per quality-adjusted life-year gained and would be considered cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 in Canadian dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained with a probability of 0.62. Cost-effectiveness was driven primarily by non-lung cancer outcomes. Higher noncurative drug costs or current costs for immunotherapy and targeted therapies in the United States would render lung cancer screening a cost-saving intervention. Non-lung cancer outcomes drive screening efficiency in diverse, tobacco-exposed populations. Use of risk selection can reduce the budget impact, and

  20. Single measure and gated screening approaches for identifying students at-risk for academic problems: Implications for sensitivity and specificity.

    PubMed

    Van Norman, Ethan R; Nelson, Peter M; Klingbeil, David A

    2017-09-01

    Educators need recommendations to improve screening practices without limiting students' instructional opportunities. Repurposing previous years' state test scores has shown promise in identifying at-risk students within multitiered systems of support. However, researchers have not directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous years' state test scores with data collected during fall screening periods to identify at-risk students. In addition, the benefit of using previous state test scores in conjunction with data from a separate measure to identify at-risk students has not been explored. The diagnostic accuracy of 3 types of screening approaches were tested to predict proficiency on end-of-year high-stakes assessments: state test data obtained during the previous year, data from a different measure administered in the fall, and both measures combined (i.e., a gated model). Extant reading and math data (N = 2,996) from 10 schools in the Midwest were analyzed. When used alone, both measures yielded similar sensitivity and specificity values. The gated model yielded superior specificity values compared with using either measure alone, at the expense of sensitivity. Implications, limitations, and ideas for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. A decision-theoretic approach to identifying future high-cost patients.

    PubMed

    Pietz, Kenneth; Byrne, Margaret M; Petersen, Laura A

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a method of allocating funding for very-high-cost (VHC) patients among hospitals. Diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) were used for risk adjustment. The patient population consisted of 253,013 veterans who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical care services in fiscal year (FY) 2003 (October 1, 2002-September 30, 2003) in a network of 8 VA hospitals. We defined VHC as greater than 75,000 dollars (0.81%). The upper fifth percentile was also used for comparison. A Bayesian decision rule for classifying patients as VHC/not VHC using DCGs was developed and evaluated. The method uses FY 2003 DCGs to allocate VHC funds for FY 2004. We also used FY 2002 DCGs to allocate VHC funds for FY 2003 for comparison. The resulting allocation was compared with using the allocation of VHC patients among the hospitals in the previous year. The decision rule identified DCG 17 as the optimal cutoff for identifying VHC patients for the next year. The previous year's allocation came closest to the actual distribution of VHC patients. The decision-theoretic approach may provide insight into the economic consequences of classifying a patient as VHC or not VHC. More research is needed into methods of identifying future VHC patients so that capitation plans can fairly reimburse healthcare systems for appropriately treating these patients.

  2. The Case for Improved College Teaching. Instructing High-Risk College Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newton, Eunice Shaed

    Assuming that nontraditional institutions espouse teaching and learning approaches that differ from conventional elitist college education, this book shows what can be done for high-risk students, and also how it can be done. Their philosophical orientations are identified and related to instructional content, objectives, and strategies. Chapters…

  3. Perceptions of risk from workers in high risk industries with work related musculoskeletal disorders.

    PubMed

    Hunter, D; Silverstein, B

    2014-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) remain a major occupational health problem, despite decades of research, outreach, and intervention. The aim of this study is to promote early identification and prevention of WMSDs by developing education and outreach materials grounded in interview data collected from workers that have recently filed for workers compensation (WC) for WMSDs. We conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with WC claimants (n=66) from high risk industries identified through the use of a Prevention Index (PI) in Washington state with WMSDs of the back, shoulder, hand/wrist, or knee. Perceptions regarding the degree of exposure to WMSD risk factors, the social construction of pain, and the potential to implement injury-prevention measures varied widely. Many workers dismissed their injuries as the result of "fluke" or "freak" occurrences and framed their exposure to risk factors for WMSDs as either inevitable or "just part of the job." Workers in high-risk industries for WMSDs described their work conditions in ways that suggested: (1) a lack of awareness of the potential for developing a WMSD, (2) a view of work-related pain as normal, and/or (3) a pattern of self-blame for WMSD onset. A paradigm that either asserts the inevitability of WMSDs or dismisses potential control measures presents both a significant barrier to injury prevention efforts as well as a major opportunity for future occupational health research.

  4. High-Risk Sexual Behavior at Social Venues in Madagascar

    PubMed Central

    KHAN, MARIA R.; RASOLOFOMANANA, JUSTIN R.; McCLAMROCH, KRISTI J.; RALISIMALALA, ANDRIAMAMPIANINA; ZAFIMANJAKA, MAURICE G.; BEHETS, FRIEDA; WEIR, SHARON S.

    2018-01-01

    Background Persistent high levels of sexually transmitted infection (STI) in Madagascar indicate current prevention strategies are inadequate. STI/HIV prevention based in social venues may play an important role in reaching individuals at risk of infection. We identified venues where people meet sexual partners and measured the need and potential for venue-based prevention. Methods Interviews were conducted in 7 Madagascar towns with 1) community informants to identify social venues, 2) individuals socializing at a sample of venues to assess sexual behavior among venue patrons, and 3) venue representatives to assess the potential for venue-based intervention. Results Community informants identified numerous venues (range: 67–211 venues, depending on the town); streets, bars, and hotels were most commonly reported. Among 2982 individuals socializing at venues, 78% of men and 74% of women reported new sexual partnership or sex trade for money, goods, or services in the past 4 weeks and 19% of men and 18% of women reported symptoms suggestive of STI in the past 4 weeks. STI symptom levels were disproportionately high among respondents reporting either sex trade or new sexual partnership in the past 4 weeks. Twenty-eight percent of men and 41% of women reported condom use during the last sex act with a new partner. Although 24% to 45% of venues had hosted STI/HIV interventions, interventions were deemed possible at 73% to 90% venues according to 644 interviews with venue representatives. Conclusions Venue-based intervention is possible and would reach a spectrum of populations vulnerable to STI/HIV including sex workers, their clients, and other high-risk populations. PMID:18496471

  5. Identifying community risk factors for HIV among South African adolescents with mental health problems: a qualitative study of parental perceptions.

    PubMed

    Kagee, Ashraf; Donenberg, Geri; Davids, Alicia; Vermaak, Redwaan; Simbayi, Leickness; Ward, Catherine; Naidoo, Pamela; Mthembu, Jacky

    2014-01-01

    High risk sexual behaviour, alcohol and drug use, and mental health problems combine to yield high levels of HIV-risk behaviour among adolescents with mental health problems. In South Africa, little research has been conducted on parental perspectives of HIV-risk among this population. We conducted a series of focus group discussions with 28 mothers of adolescents receiving services at two mental health clinics in South Africa to identify, from their perspectives, the key community problems facing their children. Participants indicated that HIV remained a serious threat to their adolescent children's well-being, in addition to substance abuse, early sexual debut, and teenage pregnancy. These social problems were mentioned as external to their household dynamics, and thus seemingly beyond the purview of the parent-adolescent relationship. These data have implications for the design of family-based interventions to ameliorate the factors associated with HIV-risk among youth receiving mental health services.

  6. Sexual Risk Behavior Among Youth With Bipolar Disorder: Identifying Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Krantz, Megan; Goldstein, Tina; Rooks, Brian; Merranko, John; Liao, Fangzi; Gill, Mary Kay; Diler, Rasim; Hafeman, Danella; Ryan, Neal; Goldstein, Benjamin; Yen, Shirley; Hower, Heather; Hunt, Jeffrey; Keller, Martin; Strober, Michael; Axelson, David; Birmaher, Boris

    2018-02-01

    This study aims to document rates of sexual activity among youth with bipolar spectrum disorder (BD) and to examine demographic and clinical factors associated with first sexual activity and sexual risk behavior during follow-up. The sample was drawn from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study of 413 youth 7 to 17 years at baseline who met criteria for bipolar spectrum disorder according to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children. Psychiatric symptoms during follow-up were assessed using the Adolescent Longitudinal Interview Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE). Sexual behavior and level of sexual risk (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, and/or partners with known sexually transmitted infections) were assessed by trained evaluators using the ALIFE Psychosocial Functioning Scale. Analyses were conducted in relation to first sexual behavior during follow-up and then to subsequent sexual behaviors (mean 9.7 years, standard deviation 3.2). Sexually active COBY youth (n = 292 of 413; 71%) were more likely females, using substances, and not living with both parents. Consistent with findings among healthy youth, earlier first sexual activity in the sample was significantly associated with low socioeconomic status, female sex, comorbid disruptive behavior disorder, and substance use. As with healthy youth, sexual risk behavior during follow-up was significantly associated with non-Caucasian race, low socioeconomic status, substance use, and history of sexual abuse. Of those COBY youth who were sexually active, 11% reported sexual assault or abuse, 36% reported becoming pregnant (or the significant other becoming pregnant), and 15% reported having at least 1 abortion (or the significant other having an abortion) during follow-up. Hypomanic symptoms during follow-up were temporally associated with the greatest risk for sexual risk behavior. Demographic and clinical factors could help identify youth with bipolar spectrum

  7. Naloxone Distribution and Training for Patients with High-Risk Opioid Use in a Veterans Affairs Community-Based Primary Care Clinic.

    PubMed

    Raffel, Katie E; Beach, Leila Y; Lin, John; Berchuck, Jacob E; Abram, Shelly; Markle, Elizabeth; Patel, Shalini

    2018-03-30

    Naloxone distribution has historically been implemented in a community-based, expanded public health model; however, there is now a need to further explore primary care clinic-based naloxone delivery to effectively address the nationwide opioid epidemic. To create a general medicine infrastructure to identify patients with high-risk opioid use and provide 25% of this population with naloxone autoinjector prescription and training within a 6-month period. The quality improvement study was conducted at an outpatient clinic serving 1238 marginally housed veterans with high rates of comorbid substance use and mental health disorders. Patients at high risk of opioid-related adverse events were identified using the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Management and were contacted to participate in a one-on-one, 15-minute, hands-on naloxone training led by nursing staff. The number of patients identified at high risk and rates of naloxone training/distribution. There were 67 patients identified as having high-risk opioid use. None of these patients had been prescribed naloxone at baseline. At the end of the intervention, 61 patients (91%) had been trained in the use of naloxone. Naloxone was primarily distributed by licensed vocational nurses (42/61, 69%). This study demonstrates the feasibility of high-risk patient identification and of a primary care-based and nursing-championed naloxone distribution model. This delivery model has the potential to provide access to naloxone to a population of patients with opioid use who may not be engaged in mental health or specialty care.

  8. Using a single binge drinking question to identify Russian women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Balachova, Tatiana; Sobell, Linda Carter; Agrawal, Sangeeta; Isurina, Galina; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Bohora, Som

    2015-07-01

    Low rates of contraception and at-risk drinking place many Russian women at risk of an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). The only realistic way to determine when women are at risk of AEP is by self-reports. A U.S. study found that a single binge-drinking question (SBD) effectively identified nearly all women whose drinking placed them at risk of AEP. The present study replicated the U.S. Participants were 689 non-pregnant Russian women of childbearing age who were at AEP risk. Their answers to SBD, "During the previous three months, how often did you have four or more drinks on one occasion", were compared with their reports of binge drinking on a 90-day Timeline Followback (TLFB) calendar. The SBD identified 99% of at-risk Russian women as binge drinkers, replicating U.S. Only 8% of the women were identified at-risk using a second AEP criterion of ≥8 drinks on average per week. Although Russian women did not report heavy weekly drinking and two-thirds did not meet AUDIT criteria for problem drinking, when they did drink, 40% of the time it was binge drinking. Almost all Russian women who were at risk of an AEP were identified by a single binge-drinking question. Results from this study suggest that Russian health care practitioners can use SBD to successfully screen women for AEP risk. SBD identified 99% of Russian women who were at AEP risk. Consequently, it is recommended that SBD be incorporated into routine health care screenings at OB/GYN clinic visits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model

    PubMed Central

    Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul SF

    2015-01-01

    Background Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. Objective The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. Methods There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric “Screening Efficiency” that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Results Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30

  10. Tiered High-Throughput Screening Approach to Identify ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    High-throughput screening (HTS) for potential thyroid–disrupting chemicals requires a system of assays to capture multiple molecular-initiating events (MIEs) that converge on perturbed thyroid hormone (TH) homeostasis. Screening for MIEs specific to TH-disrupting pathways is limited in the US EPA ToxCast screening assay portfolio. To fill one critical screening gap, the Amplex UltraRed-thyroperoxidase (AUR-TPO) assay was developed to identify chemicals that inhibit TPO, as decreased TPO activity reduces TH synthesis. The ToxCast Phase I and II chemical libraries, comprised of 1,074 unique chemicals, were initially screened using a single, high concentration to identify potential TPO inhibitors. Chemicals positive in the single concentration screen were retested in concentration-response. Due to high false positive rates typically observed with loss-of-signal assays such as AUR-TPO, we also employed two additional assays in parallel to identify possible sources of nonspecific assay signal loss, enabling stratification of roughly 300 putative TPO inhibitors based upon selective AUR-TPO activity. A cell-free luciferase inhibition assay was used to identify nonspecific enzyme inhibition among the putative TPO inhibitors, and a cytotoxicity assay using a human cell line was used to estimate the cellular tolerance limit. Additionally, the TPO inhibition activities of 150 chemicals were compared between the AUR-TPO and an orthogonal peroxidase oxidation assay using

  11. High school bullying as a risk for later depression and suicidality.

    PubMed

    Klomek, Anat Brunstein; Kleinman, Marjorie; Altschuler, Elizabeth; Marrocco, Frank; Amakawa, Lia; Gould, Madelyn S

    2011-10-01

    This is the first study to examine whether high school students experiencing frequent bullying behaviors are at risk for later depression and suicidality. A total of 236 students who reported frequent bullying behavior without depression or suicidality during a suicide screening were interviewed 4 years later to reassess depression, suicidal ideation, attempts, substance problems, and functional impairment and were compared to at-risk youth identified during the screen, including 96 youth who also experienced bullying behavior. Youth who only reported frequent bullying behaviors (as bullies, victims, or both) did not develop later depression or suicidality and continued to have fewer psychiatric problems than students identified as at-risk for suicide. Students who experienced bullying behaviors and depression or suicidality were more impaired 4 years later than those who had only reported depression or suicidality. Thus, assessment of bullying behaviors in screening protocols is recommended. © 2011 The American Association of Suicidology.

  12. Characterizing and reaching high-risk drinkers using audience segmentation.

    PubMed

    Moss, Howard B; Kirby, Susan D; Donodeo, Fred

    2009-08-01

    Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment, including where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions, and research efforts. We described the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-reported to consume 5 or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30 days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM (Claritas, Inc., San Diego, CA) audience segmentation database merged with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top 10 of the 66 PRIZM audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provided additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers resided. The top 10 audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge-drinking behavior is referred to as the "Cyber Millenials." This cluster is characterized as "the nation's tech

  13. [Sexually-transmitted infection in a high-risk group from Montería, Colombia].

    PubMed

    Alvis, Nelson; Mattar, Salim; Garcia, Jair; Conde, Edwin; Diaz, Alberto

    2007-01-01

    Identifying the main aetiological agents of sexually transmitted infections (STI) in a high-risk population from the city of Montería, Colombia. The population consisted of 69 sex-workers (high-risk group) and 16 housewives (low-risk group) living in the city of Montería. Specimens were cultured by standard microbiological methods and by the AMPLICOR CT/NG molecular technique. Patients were aged 18-44 (26.1 average age). It was determined that 17,4% of the high-risk population were positive for G. vaginalis, 15,9 % for C. trachomatis, 4,3 % for N. gonorrhoeae and 2,9 % for T. vaginalis and Candida albicans and, in the low-risk population, 56,3 % for G. vaginalis, 12,5 % for C. trachomatis, 6,3 % for N. gonorrhoeae and 12,5 % for C. albicans. It was found that 70 % of the sex-workers had 5-10 sexual relationships per week, 10 % 11-15 per week and 20 % 16-20 per week (average above 1 000 annual partners). 15,4 % of the sex-workers did not use protection during their sexual relationships. The high rates of infection found in the populations studied presume a high risk of transmission, making it a priority to intervene in these groups to prevent the spread of HIV and STI.

  14. Contribution of fibroblast growth factor 23 to Framingham risk score for identifying subclinical atherosclerosis in Chinese men.

    PubMed

    Hu, X; Ma, X; Luo, Y; Xu, Y; Xiong, Q; Pan, X; Bao, Y; Jia, W

    2017-02-01

    Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) was demonstrated to be involved in the occurrence and development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The goal of the present study was to investigate the relationship between serum FGF23 levels and carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) in men with a low-to-moderate CVD risk. Subjects with normal kidney function were selected from the Shanghai Obesity Study. Serum FGF23 levels were determined by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. C-IMT was measured by ultrasonography. The Framingham risk score (FRS) was used to assess CVD risk. A total of 392 men with low CVD risk and 372 men with moderate CVD risk were enrolled. The recognition rate of an elevated C-IMT was 85.66% with the combination of a moderate CVD risk and high serum FGF23 levels, which was greater than that with either parameter alone (65.44% and 61.03%, respectively). Subjects with high serum FGF23 levels, and either low or moderate CVD risk, were more likely to have elevated C-IMT than those with low serum FGF23 levels and low CVD risk (P = 0.014 and 0.001, respectively). The serum FGF23 levels were independently and positively associated with C-IMT in subjects with low or moderate CVD risk (both P = 0.007). In men with low-to-moderate CVD risk, serum FGF23 levels were associated independently and positively with C-IMT. As a complementary index, serum FGF23 levels strengthen the capacity of the FRS to identify subclinical atherosclerosis. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Patterns and Factors of High School Dropout Risks of Racial and Linguistic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sunha; Chang, Mido; Singh, Kusum; Allen, Katherine R.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the dropout trajectories of racial and linguistic minority students and explored the effects of students' contextual factors on their high school dropout risks. Our motivation was to identify the dropout patterns of Black, Hispanic, and Hispanic English language learner (ELL) students, who have comparatively high dropout rates,…

  16. Deconstructing Pretest Risk Enrichment to Optimize Prediction of Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk.

    PubMed

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Rutigliano, Grazia; Stahl, Daniel; Schmidt, André; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Hitesh, Shetty; McGuire, Philip

    2016-12-01

    sufficient calibration. It was used to stratify individuals undergoing CHR assessment into 4 classes of pretest risk (6-year): low, 3.39% (95% CI, 0.96% to 11.56%); moderately low, 11.58% (95% CI, 8.10% to 16.40%); moderately high, 23.69% (95% CI, 16.58% to 33.20%); and high, 53.65% (95% CI, 36.78% to 72.46%). Significant risk enrichment occurs before individuals are assessed for a suspected CHR state. Race/ethnicity and source of referral are associated with pretest risk enrichment in individuals undergoing CHR assessment. A stratification model can identify individuals at differential pretest risk of psychosis. Identification of these subgroups may inform outreach campaigns and subsequent testing and eventually optimize psychosis prediction.

  17. Emotional reactions to alcohol-related words: Differences between low- and high-risk drinkers.

    PubMed

    Gantiva, Carlos; Delgado, Rafael; Romo-González, Tania

    2015-11-01

    Research that has examined responses to alcohol-related words in drinkers has mostly linked such responses to memory, attentional, and perceptual bias. However, studies of emotional processing in alcoholics have not received much attention. The main goal of the present study was to identify the features and differences of emotional responses to alcohol-related words in low- and high-risk drinkers. A total of 149 low-risk drinkers and 125 high-risk drinkers evaluated five alcohol-related words and 15 words from the Affective Norms for English Words in the dimensions of valence, arousal, and dominance using the Self-Assessment Manikin. The results indicated that high-risk drinkers evaluated alcohol-related words as more appetitive and arousing. These results, together with findings in the attention and memory research literature, suggest that alcohol-related words can serve as conditioned cues in alcohol consumption. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Identifying Occupations at Risk for Laryngeal Disorders Requiring Specialty Voice Care.

    PubMed

    Mori, Matthew C; Francis, David O; Song, Phillip C

    2017-10-01

    Objective To identify occupational groups' use of specialty voice clinic evaluation. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary subspecialty clinic. Subjects and Methods We analyzed data collected on patients presenting to the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Voice and Speech Laboratory over a 20-year period (1993-2013). The relative risk (RR) and 99% confidence interval (CI) of presentation were calculated for each occupational category in the greater Boston population using year-matched data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Results The records of 12,120 new patients were reviewed. Using year- and occupation-matched BLS data from 2005 to 2013, 2726 patients were included in the cohort analysis. Several occupations had significantly higher risk of presentation. These included arts and entertainment (RR 4.98, CI 4.18-5.95), law (RR 3.24, CI 2.48-4.23), education (RR 3.08, CI 2.70-3.52), and social services (RR 2.07, CI 1.57-2.73). In contrast, many occupations had significantly reduced risk of presentation for laryngological disorders, for example, maintenance (RR 0.25, CI 0.15-0.42), food preparation (RR 0.35, CI 0.26-0.48), and administrative support (RR 0.49, CI 0.41-0.57). Conclusion Certain occupations are associated with higher use of laryngological services presumably because of their vocational voice needs. In addition to confirming findings from other studies, we identified several new occupation groups with increased or decreased risk for laryngologic disorders. Understanding what factors predispose to requiring specialty voice evaluation may help in targeting preventative efforts.

  19. Defining High Risk Patients for Endovascular Aneurysm Repair: A National Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Egorova, Natalia; Giacovelli, Jeannine K.; Gelijns, Annetine; Mureebe, Leila; Greco, Giampaolo; Morrissey, Nicholas; Nowygrod, Roman; Moskowitz, Alan; McKinsey, James; Kent, K. Craig

    2011-01-01

    Background Endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) is commonly used as a minimally invasive technique for repairing infrarenal aortic aneurysms. There have been recent concerns that a subset of high-risk patients experience unfavorable outcomes with this intervention. To determine whether such a high-risk cohort exists and to identify the characteristics of these patients, we analyzed the outcomes of Medicare patients treated with EVAR from 2000–2006. Methods and Results We identified 66,943 patients who underwent EVAR from Inpatient Medicare database. The overall 30-day mortality was 1.6%. A risk model for perioperative mortality was developed by randomly selecting 44,630 patients; the other 1/3 of the dataset was used to validate the model. The model was deemed reliable (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics was p=0.25 for the development, p=0.24 for the validation model) and accurate (c=0.735 and c=0.731 for the development and the validation model, respectively). In our scoring system, where scores ranged between 1 and 7, the following were identified as significant baseline factors that predict mortality: renal failure with dialysis (score=7), renal failure without dialysis (score=3), clinically significant lower extremity ischemia (score=5), patient age ≥85 (score=3), 75–84 (score=2), 70–74 (score=1), heart failure (score=3), chronic liver disease (score=3), female gender (score=2), neurological disorders (score=2), , chronic pulmonary disease (score=2), surgeon experience in EVAR<3 procedures (score=1) and hospital annual volume in EVAR <7 procedures (score=1). The majority of Medicare patients who were treated (96.6%, n=64,651) had a score of 9 or less, which correlated with a mortality < 5%. Only 3.4% of patients had a mortality ≥ 5% and 0.8% of patients (n=509) had a score of 13 or higher, which correlated with a mortality >10%. Conclusion We conclude that there is a high-risk cohort of patients that should not be treated with EVAR; however, this cohort is

  20. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    PubMed

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Identifying risk factors for victimization among male prisoners in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Kuo, Shih-Ya; Cuvelier, Steven J; Huang, Yung-Shun

    2014-02-01

    This study identified risk factors for prison victimization in Taiwan with an application of Western literature and assessed the extent of its applicability in an Eastern context. The sample was drawn from four male prisons located in Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan; a total of 1,181 valid surveys were collected. The results generally support the major findings of the extant Western studies. Crowding, however, was not significantly associated with the risk of victimization in any of the statistical models, which might be related to the different experiences and living conditions in the free community between Taiwanese and American inmates. This study generated clear policy implications, which may reduce prison victimization and engender a greater sense of well-being in the prison environment.

  2. Gene-based rare allele analysis identified a risk gene of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jong Hun; Song, Pamela; Lim, Hyunsun; Lee, Jae-Hyung; Lee, Jun Hong; Park, Sun Ah

    2014-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) has a strong propensity to run in families. However, the known risk genes excluding APOE are not clinically useful. In various complex diseases, gene studies have targeted rare alleles for unsolved heritability. Our study aims to elucidate previously unknown risk genes for AD by targeting rare alleles. We used data from five publicly available genetic studies from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP). A total of 4,171 cases and 9,358 controls were included. The genotype information of rare alleles was imputed using 1,000 genomes. We performed gene-based analysis of rare alleles (minor allele frequency≤3%). The genome-wide significance level was defined as meta P<1.8×10(-6) (0.05/number of genes in human genome = 0.05/28,517). ZNF628, which is located at chromosome 19q13.42, showed a genome-wide significant association with AD. The association of ZNF628 with AD was not dependent on APOE ε4. APOE and TREM2 were also significantly associated with AD, although not at genome-wide significance levels. Other genes identified by targeting common alleles could not be replicated in our gene-based rare allele analysis. We identified that rare variants in ZNF628 are associated with AD. The protein encoded by ZNF628 is known as a transcription factor. Furthermore, the associations of APOE and TREM2 with AD were highly significant, even in gene-based rare allele analysis, which implies that further deep sequencing of these genes is required in AD heritability studies.

  3. Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

  4. Comparing 2 Adhesive Methods on Skin Integrity in the High-Risk Neonate.

    PubMed

    Boswell, Nicole; Waker, Cheryl L

    2016-12-01

    Nurses have a primary role in promoting neonatal skin integrity and skin care management of the critically ill neonate. Adhesive products are essential to secure needed medical devices but can be a significant factor contributing to skin breakdown. Current literature does not offer a definitive answer regarding which products most safely and effectively work to secure needed devices in the high-risk neonatal population. To determine which adhesive method is best practice to safely and effectively secure lines/tubes in the high-risk neonate population. The only main effect that was significant was age group with mean skin scores. Subjects in the younger group (24-28 weeks) had higher skin scores than in the older group (28-34 weeks), validating that younger gestations are at higher risk of breakdown with the use of adhesives. The findings did not clearly identify which product was superior to secure tubes and lines, or was the least injurious to skin of the high-risk neonate. Neither a transparent dressing only or transparent dressing over hydrocolloid method clearly demonstrated an advantage in the high-risk, preterm neonate. Anecdotal comments suggested staff preferred the transparent dressing over hydrocolloid method as providing better adhesive while protecting skin integrity. The findings validated that younger gestations are at higher risk of breakdown with the use of adhesives and therefore require close vigilance to maintain skin integrity.

  5. High-risk human papillomavirus infection involving multiple anatomic sites of the female lower genital tract: a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction-based study.

    PubMed

    Hui, Yiang; Manna, Pradip; Ou, Joyce J; Kerley, Spencer; Zhang, Cunxian; Sung, C James; Lawrence, W Dwayne; Quddus, M Ruhul

    2015-09-01

    High-risk human papillomavirus infection usually is seen at one anatomic site in an individual. Rarely, infection at multiple anatomic sites of the female lower genital tract in the same individual is encountered either simultaneously and/or at a later date. The current study identifies the various subtypes of high-risk human papillomavirus infection in these scenarios and analyzes the potential significance of these findings. High-risk human papillomavirus infection involving 22 anatomic sites from 7 individuals was identified after institutional review board approval. Residual paraffin-embedded tissue samples were retrieved, and all 15 high-risk human papillomavirus were identified and viral load quantified using multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction-based method. Multiple high-risk human papillomavirus subtypes were identified in 32% of the samples and as many as 5 different subtypes of high-risk human papillomavirus infection in a single anatomic site. In general, each anatomic site has unique combination of viral subtypes, although one individual showed overlapping subtypes in the vagina, cervix, and vulvar samples. Higher viral load and rare subtypes are more frequent in younger patients and in dysplasia compared with carcinoma. Follow-up ranging from 3 to 84 months revealed persistent high-risk human papillomavirus infection in 60% of cases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders

    PubMed Central

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as “relatively low”, contrasting with 21.4% rated as “relatively high”. Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders. PMID:28587226

  7. Combination of isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1) mutation and podoplanin expression in brain tumors identifies patients at high or low risk of venous thromboembolism.

    PubMed

    Mir Seyed Nazari, P; Riedl, J; Preusser, M; Posch, F; Thaler, J; Marosi, C; Birner, P; Ricken, G; Hainfellner, J A; Pabinger, I; Ay, C

    2018-06-01

    Essentials Risk stratification for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with brain tumors is challenging. Patients with IDH1 wildtype and high podoplanin expression have a 6-month VTE risk of 18.2%. Patients with IDH1 mutation and no podoplanin expression have a 6-month VTE risk of 0%. IDH1 mutation and podoplanin overexpression in primary brain tumors appear to be exclusive. Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent complication in primary brain tumor patients. Independent studies revealed that podoplanin expression in brain tumors is associated with increased VTE risk, whereas the isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1) mutation is associated with very low VTE risk. Objectives To investigate the interrelation between intratumoral podoplanin expression and IDH1 mutation, and their mutual impact on VTE development. Patients/Methods In a prospective cohort study, intratumoral IDH1 R132H mutation and podoplanin were determined in brain tumor specimens (mainly glioma) by immunohistochemistry. The primary endpoint of the study was symptomatic VTE during a 2-year follow-up. Results All brain tumors that expressed podoplanin to a medium-high extent showed also an IDH1 wild-type status. A score based on IDH1 status and podoplanin expression levels allowed prediction of the risk of VTE. Patients with wild-type IDH1 brain tumors and high podoplanin expression had a significantly increased VTE risk compared with those with mutant IDH1 tumors and no podoplanin expression (6-month risk 18.2% vs. 0%). Conclusions IDH1 mutation and podoplanin overexpression seem to be exclusive. Although brain tumor patients with IDH1 mutation are at very low risk of VTE, the risk of VTE in patients with IDH1 wild-type tumors is strongly linked to podoplanin expression levels. © 2018 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  8. Naloxone Distribution and Training for Patients with High-Risk Opioid Use in a Veterans Affairs Community-Based Primary Care Clinic

    PubMed Central

    Raffel, Katie E; Beach, Leila Y; Lin, John; Berchuck, Jacob E; Abram, Shelly; Markle, Elizabeth; Patel, Shalini

    2018-01-01

    Context Naloxone distribution has historically been implemented in a community-based, expanded public health model; however, there is now a need to further explore primary care clinic-based naloxone delivery to effectively address the nationwide opioid epidemic. Objective To create a general medicine infrastructure to identify patients with high-risk opioid use and provide 25% of this population with naloxone autoinjector prescription and training within a 6-month period. Design The quality improvement study was conducted at an outpatient clinic serving 1238 marginally housed veterans with high rates of comorbid substance use and mental health disorders. Patients at high risk of opioid-related adverse events were identified using the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Management and were contacted to participate in a one-on-one, 15-minute, hands-on naloxone training led by nursing staff. Main Outcome Measures The number of patients identified at high risk and rates of naloxone training/distribution. Results There were 67 patients identified as having high-risk opioid use. None of these patients had been prescribed naloxone at baseline. At the end of the intervention, 61 patients (91%) had been trained in the use of naloxone. Naloxone was primarily distributed by licensed vocational nurses (42/61, 69%). Conclusion This study demonstrates the feasibility of high-risk patient identification and of a primary care-based and nursing-championed naloxone distribution model. This delivery model has the potential to provide access to naloxone to a population of patients with opioid use who may not be engaged in mental health or specialty care. PMID:29616917

  9. Facial emotion expression recognition by children at familial risk for depression: High risk boys are oversensitive to sadness

    PubMed Central

    Lopez-Duran, Nestor L.; Kuhlman, Kate R.; George, Charles; Kovacs, Maria

    2012-01-01

    In the present study we examined perceptual sensitivity to facial expressions of sadness among children at familial-risk for depression (N = 64) and low-risk peers (N = 40) between the ages 7 and 13(Mage = 9.51; SD = 2.27). Participants were presented with pictures of facial expressions that varied in emotional intensity from neutral to full-intensity sadness or anger (i.e., emotion recognition), or pictures of faces morphing from anger to sadness (emotion discrimination). After each picture was presented, children indicated whether the face showed a specific emotion (i.e., sadness, anger) or no emotion at all (neutral). In the emotion recognition task, boys (but not girls) at familial-risk for depression identified sadness at significantly lower levels of emotional intensity than did their low-risk peers. The high and low-risk groups did not differ with regard to identification of anger. In the emotion discrimination task, both groups displayed over-identification of sadness in ambiguous mixed faces but high-risk youth were less likely to show this labeling bias than their peers. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that enhanced perceptual sensitivity to subtle traces of sadness in facial expressions may be a potential mechanism of risk among boys at familial-risk for depression. This enhanced perceptual sensitivity does not appear to be due to biases in the labeling of ambiguous faces. PMID:23106941

  10. Reasons for (non)compliance with intervention following identification of 'high-risk' status in the NHS Health Check programme.

    PubMed

    McNaughton, R J; Shucksmith, J

    2015-06-01

    The Department of Health introduced a risk assessment, management and reduction programme, NHS Health Checks, which aimed to reduce premature morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular diseases for those aged 40-74. Those identified as at increased risk of CVD are offered prophylactic medication and lifestyle advice to reduce their risk. Health gains will only be achieved if patients are compliant with advice/intervention however. This study sought to understand factors that influenced adherence to medication and advice in 'high-risk' patients. Qualitative data were collected through 29 semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of individuals who had been identified as at high-risk of CVD. Participants had been offered lifestyle advice, lipid lowering medications and attended at least one annual review. Findings explore the challenges and experiences confronting 'high-risk' individuals when making decisions about engaging with intervention. Key findings explore: statin adherence, as well as adherence to advice about diet, physical activity, alcohol consumption and smoking cessation. Attention needs to be paid to the way prophylactic medications are prescribed and explained to high-risk patients. Consistent provision of tailored lifestyle advice and access to appropriate services could facilitate sustained changes to factors that increase CVD risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

  11. Identifying High-Rate Flows Based on Sequential Sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yu; Fang, Binxing; Luo, Hao

    We consider the problem of fast identification of high-rate flows in backbone links with possibly millions of flows. Accurate identification of high-rate flows is important for active queue management, traffic measurement and network security such as detection of distributed denial of service attacks. It is difficult to directly identify high-rate flows in backbone links because tracking the possible millions of flows needs correspondingly large high speed memories. To reduce the measurement overhead, the deterministic 1-out-of-k sampling technique is adopted which is also implemented in Cisco routers (NetFlow). Ideally, a high-rate flow identification method should have short identification time, low memory cost and processing cost. Most importantly, it should be able to specify the identification accuracy. We develop two such methods. The first method is based on fixed sample size test (FSST) which is able to identify high-rate flows with user-specified identification accuracy. However, since FSST has to record every sampled flow during the measurement period, it is not memory efficient. Therefore the second novel method based on truncated sequential probability ratio test (TSPRT) is proposed. Through sequential sampling, TSPRT is able to remove the low-rate flows and identify the high-rate flows at the early stage which can reduce the memory cost and identification time respectively. According to the way to determine the parameters in TSPRT, two versions of TSPRT are proposed: TSPRT-M which is suitable when low memory cost is preferred and TSPRT-T which is suitable when short identification time is preferred. The experimental results show that TSPRT requires less memory and identification time in identifying high-rate flows while satisfying the accuracy requirement as compared to previously proposed methods.

  12. The National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs. Preventing Substance Abuse: Major Findings from the National Cross-Site Evaluation of High-Risk Youth Programs. Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Springer, J. Fred; Sambrano, Soledad; Sale, Elizabeth; Kasim, Rafa; Herman, Jack

    This multiple-site study assessed 48 prevention programs for high-risk youth funded by the Center for Substance Abuse Prevention, identifying program characteristics associated with strong substance abuse prevention outcomes. Data analysis indicated that substance abuse programs reduced rates of substance use, and the positive effects of program…

  13. PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2017-02-01

    A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

  14. Development and validation of a risk model for identification of non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive Candida infection: the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation (FIRE) Study.

    PubMed

    Harrison, D; Muskett, H; Harvey, S; Grieve, R; Shahin, J; Patel, K; Sadique, Z; Allen, E; Dybowski, R; Jit, M; Edgeworth, J; Kibbler, C; Barnes, R; Soni, N; Rowan, K

    2013-02-01

    There is increasing evidence that invasive fungal disease (IFD) is more likely to occur in non-neutropenic patients in critical care units. A number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated antifungal prophylaxis in non-neutropenic, critically ill patients, demonstrating a reduction in the risk of proven IFD and suggesting a reduction in mortality. It is necessary to establish a method to identify and target antifungal prophylaxis at those patients at highest risk of IFD, who stand to benefit most from any antifungal prophylaxis strategy. To develop and validate risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive Candida infection, who would benefit from antifungal prophylaxis, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeting antifungal prophylaxis to high-risk patients based on these models. Systematic review, prospective data collection, statistical modelling, economic decision modelling and value of information analysis. Ninety-six UK adult general critical care units. Consecutive admissions to participating critical care units. None. Invasive fungal disease, defined as a blood culture or sample from a normally sterile site showing yeast/mould cells in a microbiological or histopathological report. For statistical and economic modelling, the primary outcome was invasive Candida infection, defined as IFD-positive for Candida species. Systematic review: Thirteen articles exploring risk factors, risk models or clinical decision rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients were identified. Risk factors reported to be significantly associated with IFD were included in the final data set for the prospective data collection. Data were collected on 60,778 admissions between July 2009 and March 2011. Overall, 383 patients (0.6%) were admitted with or developed IFD. The majority of IFD patients (94%) were positive for Candida species. The most common site of infection was blood (55%). The incidence of IFD

  15. Sensitivity of BRCA1/2 testing in high-risk breast/ovarian/male breast cancer families: little contribution of comprehensive RNA/NGS panel testing.

    PubMed

    Byers, Helen; Wallis, Yvonne; van Veen, Elke M; Lalloo, Fiona; Reay, Kim; Smith, Philip; Wallace, Andrew J; Bowers, Naomi; Newman, William G; Evans, D Gareth

    2016-11-01

    The sensitivity of testing BRCA1 and BRCA2 remains unresolved as the frequency of deep intronic splicing variants has not been defined in high-risk familial breast/ovarian cancer families. This variant category is reported at significant frequency in other tumour predisposition genes, including NF1 and MSH2. We carried out comprehensive whole gene RNA analysis on 45 high-risk breast/ovary and male breast cancer families with no identified pathogenic variant on exonic sequencing and copy number analysis of BRCA1/2. In addition, we undertook variant screening of a 10-gene high/moderate risk breast/ovarian cancer panel by next-generation sequencing. DNA testing identified the causative variant in 50/56 (89%) breast/ovarian/male breast cancer families with Manchester scores of ≥50 with two variants being confirmed to affect splicing on RNA analysis. RNA sequencing of BRCA1/BRCA2 on 45 individuals from high-risk families identified no deep intronic variants and did not suggest loss of RNA expression as a cause of lost sensitivity. Panel testing in 42 samples identified a known RAD51D variant, a high-risk ATM variant in another breast ovary family and a truncating CHEK2 mutation. Current exonic sequencing and copy number analysis variant detection methods of BRCA1/2 have high sensitivity in high-risk breast/ovarian cancer families. Sequence analysis of RNA does not identify any variants undetected by current analysis of BRCA1/2. However, RNA analysis clarified the pathogenicity of variants of unknown significance detected by current methods. The low diagnostic uplift achieved through sequence analysis of the other known breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility genes indicates that further high-risk genes remain to be identified.

  16. Identifying risk factors of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in AIDS patients receiving highly active anti-retroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    He, Bo; Zheng, Yuhuang; Liu, Meng; Zhou, Guoqiang; Chen, Xia; Mamadou, Diallo; He, Yan; Zhou, Huaying; Chen, Zi

    2013-01-01

    Immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome typically occurs within days after patients undergo highly active anti-retroviral therapy and is a big hurdle for effective treatment of AIDS patients. In this study, we monitored immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome occurrence in 238 AIDS patients treated with highly active anti-retroviral therapy. Among them, immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome occurred in 47 cases (19.7%). Immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome patients had significantly higher rate of opportunistic infection (p<0.001) and persistently lower CD4(+) cell count (p<0.001) compared to the non-immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome patients. In contrast, no significant differences in HIV RNA loads were observed between the immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome group and non-immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome group. These data suggest that a history of opportunistic infection and CD4(+) cell counts at baseline may function as risk factors for immune reconstitution inflammation syndrome occurrence in AIDS patients as well as potential prognostic markers. These findings will improve the management of AIDS with highly active anti-retroviral therapy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  17. Knowledge of oral cancer risk factors amongst high-risk Australians: findings from the LESIONS programme.

    PubMed

    Dost, F; Do, L; Farah, C S

    2016-12-01

    Patient awareness of risk factors associated with cancer has been shown to increase patient presentation for screening and early detection. This study aimed to identify the level of awareness of oral cancer risk factors in a high risk Australian population. Participants were recruited from the LESIONS programme between April 2012 and April 2014. Demographics were collected via semi-structured interview. A self-administered questionnaire was provided, listing a number of possible oral cancer risk factors. Participants were requested to indicate their level of agreement on a three-point scale. Bivariate and multivariable analysis was performed. A total of 1498 participants took part in the LESIONS programme and were invited to complete the questionnaire. The most common risk factors thought to be associated with oral cancer were smoking (87.5%), poor oral hygiene (67.9%) and family history (61.1%). Only 50.2% of respondents were aware of alcohol consumption as a risk factor. While most participants were aware of the association between smoking and oral cancer, only half were aware of the significant risk alcohol consumption poses. A significant portion of participants also held a number of inaccurate beliefs in relation to oral cancer risk. These findings can benefit both clinicians and public health policy makers in targeting oral cancer education. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.

  18. A Shortened Version of the Suicide Cognitions Scale for Identifying Chronic Pain Patients at Risk for Suicide.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Craig J; Kanzler, Kathryn E; Grieser, Emily; Martinez, Annette; Allison, Sybil; McGeary, Donald

    2017-03-01

    Research in psychiatric outpatient and inpatient populations supports the utility of the Suicide Cognitions Scale (SCS) as an indicator of current and future risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Designed to assess suicide-specific thoughts and beliefs, the SCS has yet to be evaluated among chronic pain patients, a group with elevated risk for suicide. The purpose of the present study was to develop and test a shortened version of the SCS (the SCS-S). A total of 228 chronic pain patients completed a battery of self-report surveys before or after a scheduled appointment. Three outpatient medical clinics (pain medicine, orofacial pain, and clinical health psychology). Confirmatory factor analysis, multivariate regression, and graded item response theory model analyses. Results of the CFAs suggested that a 3-factor solution was optimal. A shortened 9-item scale was identified based on the results of graded item response theory model analyses. Correlation and multivariate analyses supported the construct and incremental validity of the SCS-S. Results support the reliability and validity of the SCS-S among chronic pain patients, and suggest the scale may be a useful method for identifying high-risk patients in medical settings. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

  19. Serum 6-Bromotryptophan Levels Identified as a Risk Factor for CKD Progression.

    PubMed

    Tin, Adrienne; Nadkarni, Girish; Evans, Anne M; Winkler, Cheryl A; Bottinger, Erwin; Rebholz, Casey M; Sarnak, Mark J; Inker, Lesley A; Levey, Andrew S; Lipkowitz, Michael S; Appel, Lawrence J; Arking, Dan E; Coresh, Josef; Grams, Morgan E

    2018-05-18

    Background Metabolite levels reflect physiologic homeostasis and may serve as biomarkers of disease progression. Identifying metabolites associated with APOL1 risk alleles-genetic variants associated with CKD risk commonly present in persons of African descent-may reveal novel markers of CKD progression relevant to other populations. Methods We evaluated associations between the number of APOL1 risk alleles and 760 serum metabolites identified via untargeted profiling in participants of the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) ( n =588; Bonferroni significance threshold P <6.5×10 -5 ) and replicated findings in 678 black participants with CKD in Bio Me , an electronic medical record-linked biobank. We tested the metabolite association with CKD progression in AASK, Bio Me , and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study. Results One metabolite, 6-bromotryptophan, was significant in AASK ( P =4.7×10 -5 ) and replicated in Bio Me ( P =5.7×10 -3 ) participants, with lower levels associated with more APOL1 risk alleles. Lower levels of 6-bromotryptophan were associated with CKD progression in AASK and Bio Me participants and in white participants in the MDRD Study, independent of demographics and clinical characteristics, including baseline GFR (adjusted hazard ratio per two-fold higher 6-bromotryptophan level, AASK, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.64 to 0.91; Bio Me , 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.85; MDRD, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.79). The interaction between the APOL1 risk alleles and 6-bromotryptophan was not significant. The identity of 6-bromotryptophan was confirmed in experiments comparing its molecular signature with that of authentic standards of other bromotryptophan isomers. Conclusions Serum 6-bromotryptophan is a consistent and novel risk factor for CKD progression. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  20. Can we use subchondral bone thickness on high-field magnetic resonance images to identify Thoroughbred racehorses at risk of catastrophic lateral condylar fracture?

    PubMed

    Tranquille, C A; Murray, R C; Parkin, T D H

    2017-03-01

    Fractures of the lateral condyle of the third metacarpus (MC3) are a significant welfare concern in horseracing worldwide. The primary aim of this work was to identify magnetic resonance (MR) image-detectable prefracture markers that have the potential for use as a screening tool to identify horses at significant risk of catastrophic fracture. Case-control study of bone-level risk factors for fracture in racehorses. A total of 191 MC3s from horses, with and without lateral condylar fracture of MC3, were subjected to MR imaging. The depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone was measured at several sites around the distal end of the bone and regression analyses were conducted to identify differences in this depth between horses with and without lateral condylar fracture. Greater depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone in the palmar half of the lateral parasagittal groove of distal MC3 was associated with an increased likelihood of being from a horse that had sustained a fracture. Receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to identify the optimal cut-off in the depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone at this site to best discriminate fracture status. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the prevalence of fracture within the current study and also a prevalence estimate for the wider racehorse population. There is a requirement to identify suitable prescreening test(s) to eliminate many true negative horses and increase the prevalence of prefracture pathology in the sub population that would be screened using MR imaging, in turn maximising the positive predictive value of this test. © 2016 EVJ Ltd.

  1. Losing Generations: Adolescents in High-Risk Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.

    By focusing on the settings and environments in which high-risk young people are living, this book fixes responsibility on society as a whole. High-risk settings do not just happen, but are the result of public policies and national choices. The Panel on High-Risk Youth of the National Research Council attempts to clarify forces tearing apart…

  2. Using risk-tracing snowball approach to increase HIV case detection among high-risk populations in Cambodia: an intervention study.

    PubMed

    Chhim, Srean; Macom, John; Pav, Chettana; Nim, Nirada; Yun, Phearun; Seng, Sopheap; Chhim, Kolab; Tuot, Sovannary; Yi, Siyan

    2017-10-18

    Early HIV diagnosis and initiation onto antiretroviral therapy may prevent ongoing spread of HIV. Risk Tracing Snowball Approach (RTSA) has been shown to be effective in detecting new HIV cases in other settings. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA in increasing the rate of newly identified HIV cases among high-risk populations. Our second objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA, as compared to the walk-in group, in increasing the number of HIV tests and early case detection. This study was conducted from April 1 to September 30, 2016 at two NGO clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Respondent driven sampling method was adapted to develop RTSA to reach high-risk populations, including key populations and the general population who have social connections with key populations. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. During the implementation period, 721 clients walked in for HIV testing (walk-in group), and all were invited to be seeds. Of the invited clients, 36.6% agreed to serve as seeds. Throughout the implementation, 6195 coupons were distributed to seeds or recruiters, and resulted in 1572 clients visiting the two clinics with coupons (RTSA group), for a coupon return rate of 25.3%. The rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was significantly lower compared to that in walk-in group. However, the highest number of newly identified HIV cases was found during the implementation period, compared to both pre- and post-implementation period. Although statistically not significant, the mean CD4 count of newly identified HIV cases detected through RTSA was almost 200 cells/mm3 higher than that in the walk-in group. Although the rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was lower than that in the walk-in group, the inclusion of RTSA in addition to the traditional walk-in method boosted new HIV case detection in the two participating clinics. A higher mean CD4

  3. ORDEM 3.0 and the Risk of High-Density Debris

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Matney, Mark; Anz-Meador, Philip

    2014-01-01

    NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model was designed to calculate orbital debris fluxes on spacecraft in order to assess collision risk. The newest of these models, ORDEM 3.0, has a number of features not present in previous models. One of the most important is that the populations and fluxes are now broken out into material density groups. Previous models concentrated on debris size alone, but a particle’s mass and density also determine the amount of damage it can cause. ORDEM 3.0 includes a high-density component, primarily consisting of iron/steel particles that drive much of the risk to spacecraft. This paper will outline the methods that were used to separate and identify the different densities of debris, and how these new densities affect the overall debris flux and risk.

  4. Level of anxiety in parents of high-risk premature twins.

    PubMed

    Zanardo, V; Freato, F; Cereda, C

    1998-01-01

    We attempted to define parental anxiety in a population of parents of high-risk premature twins (mean birth weight 1,493 +/- 227 kg; mean gestational age 33 +/- 3.5 weeks), admitted to III level NICU. We specifically examined the following factors; gestational age of the twins, whether or not the twins had ventilatory support, pulmonary sequelae, major malformations or intra-ventricular hemorrhage, parental gender and highest level of education obtained by the parent. In the immediate pre-discharge period and a month later, a questionnaire (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory) was given to all parents of premature twins presenting for the discharge. The parents of 30 twins entered the study twice, at the discharge of their first twin (mean postnatal age 40 +/- 32 days), and one month later. They included 15 mothers and 11 fathers, aged 33 +/- 5.5 and 33 +/- 4.2 years, and at the second evaluation 11 mothers and 10 fathers, respectively. As case-controls we examined parental anxiety of fifteen consecutive singleton high-risk prematures, with equal gestational age, discharged immediately after. Our results indicate that the parents of high-risk twin and singleton prematures present an elevated, lasting state-trait anxiety level. Pre- and post-discharge parental anxiety is more elevated (not significant) in twinning with respect to the prematurity alone. When assessed separately by parental gender, in both these groups an increased (not significant) anxiety was persistently found in the mothers. We recommend that, although neonatologists generally define the discharge of the high-risk premature based upon the acquired stabilization of vital parameters, they pay special attention to the twin group we have identified which is at increased risk for predischarge parental anxiety.

  5. Lower Female Genital Tract Tumors With Adenoid Cystic Differentiation: P16 Expression and High-risk HPV Detection.

    PubMed

    Xing, Deyin; Schoolmeester, J Kenneth; Ren, Zhiyong; Isacson, Christina; Ronnett, Brigitte M

    2016-04-01

    Lower female genital tract tumors with adenoid cystic differentiation are rare, and data on their relationship with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) are limited. Here we report the clinicopathologic features from a case series. Tumors with adenoid cystic differentiation, either pure or as part of a carcinoma with mixed differentiation, arising in the lower female genital tract were evaluated by means of immunohistochemical analysis for p16 expression and in situ hybridization using 1 or more probes for high-risk HPV (a high-risk probe covering multiple types, a wide-spectrum probe, and separate type-specific probes for HPV16 and HPV18) and when possible by polymerase chain reaction for high-risk HPV. Six cervical carcinomas with adenoid cystic differentiation admixed with various combinations of at least 1 other pattern of differentiation, including adenoid basal tumor (epithelioma and/or carcinoma), squamous cell carcinoma (basaloid or keratinizing), and small cell carcinoma were identified in patients ranging in age from 50 to 86 years (mean, 73 y; median, 76 y). All of these tumors were characterized by diffuse p16 expression. High-risk HPV was detected in 5 of 6 tested cases: 4 cases by in situ hybridization (all positive for HPV-wide-spectrum and HPV16) and 1 by polymerase chain reaction (HPV45). Seven pure adenoid cystic carcinomas (6 vulvar and 1 cervical) were identified in patients ranging in age from 27 to 74 years (mean, 48 y; median, 48 y). All of these tumors were characterized by variable p16 expression ranging from very limited to more extensive but never diffuse. No high-risk HPV was detected in any of these pure tumors. Lower female genital tract carcinomas with adenoid cystic differentiation appear to comprise 2 pathogenetically distinct groups. Cervical carcinomas with mixed differentiation, including adenoid cystic, adenoid basal, squamous, and small cell components, are etiologically related to high-risk HPV and can be identified by diffuse

  6. Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

    PubMed Central

    Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

  7. Risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza in commercial layer chicken farms in bangladesh during 2011.

    PubMed

    Osmani, M G; Thornton, R N; Dhand, N K; Hoque, M A; Milon, Sk M A; Kalam, M A; Hossain, M; Yamage, M

    2014-12-01

    A case-control study conducted during 2011 involved 90 randomly selected commercial layer farms infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza type A subtype H5N1 (HPAI) and 175 control farms randomly selected from within 5 km of infected farms. A questionnaire was designed to obtain information about potential risk factors for contracting HPAI and was administered to farm owners or managers. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify significant risk factors. A total of 20 of 43 risk factors for contracting HPAI were identified after univariable logistic regression analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was derived by forward stepwise selection. Both unmatched and matched analyses were performed. The key risk factors identified were numbers of staff, frequency of veterinary visits, presence of village chickens roaming on the farm and staff trading birds. Aggregating these findings with those from other studies resulted in a list of 16 key risk factors identified in Bangladesh. Most of these related to biosecurity. It is considered feasible for Bangladesh to achieve a very low incidence of HPAI. Using the cumulative list of risk factors to enhance biosecurity pertaining to commercial farms would facilitate this objective. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  8. Autonomy and Responsibility: Online Learning as a Solution for At-Risk High School Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, S.; Whiteside, A.; Garrett Dikkers, A.

    2014-01-01

    In this three-year, mixed methods case study, the benefits and challenges of online learning for at-risk high school students were examined. A key finding was that at-risk students identify the benefits and challenges of online learning to be the same. While students appreciate the opportunity to work ahead and study at their own pace, they see it…

  9. Techniques for predicting high-risk drivers for alcohol countermeasures. Volume 1, Technical report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-05-01

    This technical report, a companion to the Volume II User Manual by the same name describes the development and testing of predictive models for identifying individual with a high risk of alcohol/related (A/R) crash involvement. From a literature revi...

  10. Can we avoid high levels of dose escalation for high-risk prostate cancer in the setting of androgen deprivation?

    PubMed

    Shakespeare, Thomas P; Wilcox, Shea W; Aherne, Noel J

    2016-01-01

    Both dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (DE-EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improve outcomes in patients with high-risk prostate cancer. However, there is little evidence specifically evaluating DE-EBRT for patients with high-risk prostate cancer receiving ADT, particularly for EBRT doses >74 Gy. We aimed to determine whether DE-EBRT >74 Gy improves outcomes for patients with high-risk prostate cancer receiving long-term ADT. Patients with high-risk prostate cancer were treated on an institutional protocol prescribing 3-6 months neoadjuvant ADT and DE-EBRT, followed by 2 years of adjuvant ADT. Between 2006 and 2012, EBRT doses were escalated from 74 Gy to 76 Gy and then to 78 Gy. We interrogated our electronic medical record to identify these patients and analyzed our results by comparing dose levels. In all, 479 patients were treated with a 68-month median follow-up. The 5-year biochemical disease-free survivals for the 74 Gy, 76 Gy, and 78 Gy groups were 87.8%, 86.9%, and 91.6%, respectively. The metastasis-free survivals were 95.5%, 94.5%, and 93.9%, respectively, and the prostate cancer-specific survivals were 100%, 94.4%, and 98.1%, respectively. Dose escalation had no impact on any outcome in either univariate or multivariate analysis. There was no benefit of DE-EBRT >74 Gy in our cohort of high-risk prostate patients treated with long-term ADT. As dose escalation has higher risks of radiotherapy-induced toxicity, it may be feasible to omit dose escalation beyond 74 Gy in this group of patients. Randomized studies evaluating dose escalation for high-risk patients receiving ADT should be considered.

  11. A Multi-Breed Genome-Wide Association Analysis for Canine Hypothyroidism Identifies a Shared Major Risk Locus on CFA12.

    PubMed

    Bianchi, Matteo; Dahlgren, Stina; Massey, Jonathan; Dietschi, Elisabeth; Kierczak, Marcin; Lund-Ziener, Martine; Sundberg, Katarina; Thoresen, Stein Istre; Kämpe, Olle; Andersson, Göran; Ollier, William E R; Hedhammar, Åke; Leeb, Tosso; Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin; Kennedy, Lorna J; Lingaas, Frode; Rosengren Pielberg, Gerli

    2015-01-01

    Hypothyroidism is a complex clinical condition found in both humans and dogs, thought to be caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors. In this study we present a multi-breed analysis of predisposing genetic risk factors for hypothyroidism in dogs using three high-risk breeds--the Gordon Setter, Hovawart and the Rhodesian Ridgeback. Using a genome-wide association approach and meta-analysis, we identified a major hypothyroidism risk locus shared by these breeds on chromosome 12 (p = 2.1x10(-11)). Further characterisation of the candidate region revealed a shared ~167 kb risk haplotype (4,915,018-5,081,823 bp), tagged by two SNPs in almost complete linkage disequilibrium. This breed-shared risk haplotype includes three genes (LHFPL5, SRPK1 and SLC26A8) and does not extend to the dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) class II gene cluster located in the vicinity. These three genes have not been identified as candidate genes for hypothyroid disease previously, but have functions that could potentially contribute to the development of the disease. Our results implicate the potential involvement of novel genes and pathways for the development of canine hypothyroidism, raising new possibilities for screening, breeding programmes and treatments in dogs. This study may also contribute to our understanding of the genetic etiology of human hypothyroid disease, which is one of the most common endocrine disorders in humans.

  12. Are your students ready for anatomy and physiology? Developing tools to identify students at risk for failure.

    PubMed

    Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

    2015-06-01

    High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online pilot survey was administered to 200 biology students. The survey results revealed several predictive factors related to academic preparation and prompted a comprehensive analysis of college records of >2,000 biology students over a 5-yr period. Using these historical data, a model that was 91% successful in predicting student success in these courses was developed. The results of the present study support the use of surveys and similar models to identify at-risk students and to provide guidance in the development of evidence-based advising programs and pedagogies. This comprehensive approach may be a tangible step in improving student success for students from a wide variety of backgrounds in anatomy and physiology courses. Copyright © 2015 The American Physiological Society.

  13. Genome-wide association analyses identify new risk variants and the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    van Rheenen, Wouter; Shatunov, Aleksey; Dekker, Annelot M; McLaughlin, Russell L; Diekstra, Frank P; Pulit, Sara L; van der Spek, Rick A A; Võsa, Urmo; de Jong, Simone; Robinson, Matthew R; Yang, Jian; Fogh, Isabella; van Doormaal, Perry TC; Tazelaar, Gijs H P; Koppers, Max; Blokhuis, Anna M; Sproviero, William; Jones, Ashley R; Kenna, Kevin P; van Eijk, Kristel R; Harschnitz, Oliver; Schellevis, Raymond D; Brands, William J; Medic, Jelena; Menelaou, Androniki; Vajda, Alice; Ticozzi, Nicola; Lin, Kuang; Rogelj, Boris; Vrabec, Katarina; Ravnik-Glavač, Metka; Koritnik, Blaž; Zidar, Janez; Leonardis, Lea; Grošelj, Leja Dolenc; Millecamps, Stéphanie; Salachas, François; Meininger, Vincent; de Carvalho, Mamede; Pinto, Susana; Mora, Jesus S; Rojas-García, Ricardo; Polak, Meraida; Chandran, Siddharthan; Colville, Shuna; Swingler, Robert; Morrison, Karen E; Shaw, Pamela J; Hardy, John; Orrell, Richard W; Pittman, Alan; Sidle, Katie; Fratta, Pietro; Malaspina, Andrea; Topp, Simon; Petri, Susanne; Abdulla, Susanne; Drepper, Carsten; Sendtner, Michael; Meyer, Thomas; Ophoff, Roel A; Staats, Kim A; Wiedau-Pazos, Martina; Lomen-Hoerth, Catherine; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Trojanowski, John Q; Elman, Lauren; McCluskey, Leo; Basak, A Nazli; Tunca, Ceren; Hamzeiy, Hamid; Parman, Yesim; Meitinger, Thomas; Lichtner, Peter; Radivojkov-Blagojevic, Milena; Andres, Christian R; Maurel, Cindy; Bensimon, Gilbert; Landwehrmeyer, Bernhard; Brice, Alexis; Payan, Christine A M; Saker-Delye, Safaa; Dürr, Alexandra; Wood, Nicholas W; Tittmann, Lukas; Lieb, Wolfgang; Franke, Andre; Rietschel, Marcella; Cichon, Sven; Nöthen, Markus M; Amouyel, Philippe; Tzourio, Christophe; Dartigues, Jean-François; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Estrada, Karol; Hofman, Albert; Curtis, Charles; Blauw, Hylke M; van der Kooi, Anneke J; de Visser, Marianne; Goris, An; Weber, Markus; Shaw, Christopher E; Smith, Bradley N; Pansarasa, Orietta; Cereda, Cristina; Bo, Roberto Del; Comi, Giacomo P; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Bertolin, Cinzia; Sorarù, Gianni; Mazzini, Letizia; Pensato, Viviana; Gellera, Cinzia; Tiloca, Cinzia; Ratti, Antonia; Calvo, Andrea; Moglia, Cristina; Brunetti, Maura; Arcuti, Simona; Capozzo, Rosa; Zecca, Chiara; Lunetta, Christian; Penco, Silvana; Riva, Nilo; Padovani, Alessandro; Filosto, Massimiliano; Muller, Bernard; Stuit, Robbert Jan; Blair, Ian; Zhang, Katharine; McCann, Emily P; Fifita, Jennifer A; Nicholson, Garth A; Rowe, Dominic B; Pamphlett, Roger; Kiernan, Matthew C; Grosskreutz, Julian; Witte, Otto W; Ringer, Thomas; Prell, Tino; Stubendorff, Beatrice; Kurth, Ingo; Hübner, Christian A; Leigh, P Nigel; Casale, Federico; Chio, Adriano; Beghi, Ettore; Pupillo, Elisabetta; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Powell, John; Ludolph, Albert C; Weishaupt, Jochen H; Robberecht, Wim; Van Damme, Philip; Franke, Lude; Pers, Tune H; Brown, Robert H; Glass, Jonathan D; Landers, John E; Hardiman, Orla; Andersen, Peter M; Corcia, Philippe; Vourc’h, Patrick; Silani, Vincenzo; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; de Bakker, Paul I W; van Es, Michael A; Pasterkamp, R Jeroen; Lewis, Cathryn M; Breen, Gerome; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H; Veldink, Jan H

    2017-01-01

    To elucidate the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and find associated loci, we assembled a custom imputation reference panel from whole-genome-sequenced patients with ALS and matched controls (n = 1,861). Through imputation and mixed-model association analysis in 12,577 cases and 23,475 controls, combined with 2,579 cases and 2,767 controls in an independent replication cohort, we fine-mapped a new risk locus on chromosome 21 and identified C21orf2 as a gene associated with ALS risk. In addition, we identified MOBP and SCFD1 as new associated risk loci. We established evidence of ALS being a complex genetic trait with a polygenic architecture. Furthermore, we estimated the SNP-based heritability at 8.5%, with a distinct and important role for low-frequency variants (frequency 1–10%). This study motivates the interrogation of larger samples with full genome coverage to identify rare causal variants that underpin ALS risk. PMID:27455348

  14. The management of women at high risk for the development of breast cancer: risk estimation and preventative strategies.

    PubMed

    Sakorafas, George H

    2003-04-01

    Despite recent progress in the diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to the management of women with breast cancer, at least one third of these women will ultimately die from their disease. This resulted in a new focus on breast cancer prevention, especially for the woman designed as "high-risk". The continuing challenge is to identify reliable markers to accurately recognize this group of women, who are more likely to develop breast cancer. This will allow a targeted specific counseling and the application of preventative measures. Management options in high-risk women include intensive cancer surveillance, chemoprevention (mainly using tamoxifen), and prophylactic surgery (preferentially total mastectomy). Cancer surveillance is the most preferred management option. Currently, no data exists comparing prophylactic mastectomy vs. surveillance vs. chemoprevention. Thus, despite significant advances in our understanding of the biology of breast cancer, many questions remain unanswered concerning the optimal management of the high-risk woman. Patient counseling has a central role in the decision-making process and should be based on a multidisciplinary approach. The individual woman will make the final decision based on the amount of risk she is willing to accept. It is hoped that other preventative methods, such as gene therapy based on an accurate identification of specific genetic changes, will be developed in the future.

  15. Evaluating the Risks of High Altitude Travel in Chronic Liver Disease Patients.

    PubMed

    Luks, Andrew M; Swenson, Erik R

    2015-06-01

    Luks, Andrew M., and Erik R. Swenson. Clinician's Corner: Evaluating the risks of high altitude travel in chronic liver disease patients. High Alt Med Biol 16:80-88, 2015.--With improvements in the quality of health care, people with chronic medical conditions are experiencing better quality of life and increasingly participating in a wider array of activities, including travel to high altitude. Whenever people with chronic diseases travel to this environment, it is important to consider whether the physiologic responses to hypobaric hypoxia will interact with the underlying medical condition such that the risk of acute altitude illness is increased or the medical condition itself may worsen. This review considers these questions as they pertain to patients with chronic liver disease. While the limited available evidence suggests there is no evidence of liver injury or dysfunction in normal individuals traveling as high as 5000 m, there is reason to suspect that two groups of cirrhosis patients are at increased risk for problems, hepatopulmonary syndrome patients, who are at risk for severe hypoxemia following ascent, and portopulmonary hypertension patients who may be at risk for high altitude pulmonary edema and acute right ventricular dysfunction. While liver transplant patients may tolerate high altitude exposure without difficulty, no information is available regarding the risks of long-term residence at altitude with chronic liver disease. All travelers with cirrhosis require careful pre-travel evaluation to identify conditions that might predispose to problems at altitude and develop risk mitigation strategies for these issues. Patients also require detailed counseling about recognition, prevention, and treatment of acute altitude illness and may require different medication regimens to prevent or treat altitude illness than used in healthy individuals.

  16. Comparison of the abilities of the plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and the metabolic syndrome to identify insulin resistance.

    PubMed

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Leiva Sisnieguez, Carlos E; March, Carlos E; Balbín, Eduardo; Dulbecco, Carlos A; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Marillet, Alberto G; Reaven, Gerald M

    2013-07-01

    This study compares the ability of an elevated triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio, using sex-specific cut-points, to identify insulin-resistant individuals within a population without known cardiac disease or diabetes with that obtained using the diagnostic criteria of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Measurements were made of waist circumference (WC), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, fasting plasma insulin (FPI), plasma TG and plasma HDL-C concentrations in 1102 women and 464 men. These data were used to classify subjects as being insulin resistant (FPI concentration in the upper quartile) and having the MetS or an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio (>2.5 and >3.5 for women and men, respectively). The sensitivity and specificity with which the two indices identified insulin-resistant subjects were similar (43% and 81% for TG/HDL-C ratio and 45% and 82% for MetS), as the number of individuals was found with either an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio (n = 386) or the MetS (n = 384). Eighty-one per cent of the individuals were identified concordantly. Cardio-metabolic risk profiles in 'low-risk' individuals identified by a low TG/HDL-C ratio were comparable to those who did not have the MetS, and this was also the case when comparing 'high-risk' groups identified by having the MetS or an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio. These findings suggest that TG/HDL-C concentration ratio is as adequate as MetS diagnosis to identify insulin-resistant subjects.

  17. Criterion for Identifying Vortices in High-Pressure Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bellan, Josette; Okong'o, Nora

    2007-01-01

    A study of four previously published computational criteria for identifying vortices in high-pressure flows has led to the selection of one of them as the best. This development can be expected to contribute to understanding of high-pressure flows, which occur in diverse settings, including diesel, gas turbine, and rocket engines and the atmospheres of Jupiter and other large gaseous planets. Information on the atmospheres of gaseous planets consists mainly of visual and thermal images of the flows over the planets. Also, validation of recently proposed computational models of high-pressure flows entails comparison with measurements, which are mainly of visual nature. Heretofore, the interpretation of images of high-pressure flows to identify vortices has been based on experience with low-pressure flows. However, high-pressure flows have features distinct from those of low-pressure flows, particularly in regions of high pressure gradient magnitude caused by dynamic turbulent effects and by thermodynamic mixing of chemical species. Therefore, interpretations based on low-pressure behavior may lead to misidentification of vortices and other flow structures in high-pressure flows. The study reported here was performed in recognition of the need for one or more quantitative criteria for identifying coherent flow structures - especially vortices - from previously generated flow-field data, to complement or supersede the determination of flow structures by visual inspection of instantaneous fields or flow animations. The focus in the study was on correlating visible images of flow features with various quantities computed from flow-field data.

  18. Characterizing and Reaching High-Risk Drinkers Using Audience Segmentation

    PubMed Central

    Moss, Howard B.; Kirby, Susan D.; Donodeo, Fred

    2010-01-01

    Background Market or audience segmentation is widely used in social marketing efforts to help planners identify segments of a population to target for tailored program interventions. Market-based segments are typically defined by behaviors, attitudes, knowledge, opinions, or lifestyles. They are more helpful to health communication and marketing planning than epidemiologically-defined groups because market-based segments are similar in respect to how they behave or might react to marketing and communication efforts. However, market segmentation has rarely been used in alcohol research. As an illustration of its utility, we employed commercial data that describes the sociodemographic characteristics of high-risk drinkers as an audience segment; where they tend to live, lifestyles, interests, consumer behaviors, alcohol consumption behaviors, other health-related behaviors, and cultural values. Such information can be extremely valuable in targeting and planning public health campaigns, targeted mailings, prevention interventions and research efforts. Methods We describe the results of a segmentation analysis of those individuals who self-report consuming five or more drinks per drinking episode at least twice in the last 30-days. The study used the proprietary PRIZM™ audience segmentation database merged with Center for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) database. The top ten of the 66 PRIZM™ audience segments for this risky drinking pattern are described. For five of these segments we provide additional in-depth details about consumer behavior and the estimates of the market areas where these risky drinkers reside. Results The top ten audience segments (PRIZM clusters) most likely to engage in high-risk drinking are described. The cluster with the highest concentration of binge drinking behavior is referred to as the “Cyber Millenials.” This cluster is characterized as “the nation's tech-savvy singles

  19. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For presentation at the 45th Annual Symposium of the Society of Toxicology of Canada. The meeting will be held on 4-5 December 2013 at the Ottawa Convention Centre. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment. Rory Conolly, Offi...

  20. Microarray-based SNP genotyping to identify genetic risk factors of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in South Indian population.

    PubMed

    Aravind Kumar, M; Singh, Vineeta; Naushad, Shaik Mohammad; Shanker, Uday; Lakshmi Narasu, M

    2018-05-01

    In the view of aggressive nature of Triple-Negative Breast cancer (TNBC) due to the lack of receptors (ER, PR, HER2) and high incidence of drug resistance associated with it, a case-control association study was conducted to identify the contributing genetic risk factors for Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). A total of 30 TNBC patients and 50 age and gender-matched controls of Indian origin were screened for 9,00,000 SNP markers using microarray-based SNP genotyping approach. The initial PLINK association analysis (p < 0.01, MAF 0.14-0.44, OR 10-24) identified 28 non-synonymous SNPs and one stop gain mutation in the exonic region as possible determinants of TNBC risk. All the 29 SNPs were annotated using ANNOVAR. The interactions between these markers were evaluated using Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) analysis. The interactions were in the following order: exm408776 > exm1278309 > rs316389 > rs1651654 > rs635538 > exm1292477. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to construct decision tree useful in predicting TNBC risk. As shown in this analysis, rs1651654 and exm585172 SNPs are found to be determinants of TNBC risk. Artificial neural network model was used to generate the Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), which showed high sensitivity and specificity (AUC-0.94) of these markers. To conclude, among the 9,00,000 SNPs tested, CCDC42 exm1292477, ANXA3 exm408776, SASH1 exm585172 are found to be the most significant genetic predicting factors for TNBC. The interactions among exm408776, exm1278309, rs316389, rs1651654, rs635538, exm1292477 SNPs inflate the risk for TNBC further. Targeted analysis of these SNPs and genes alone also will have similar clinical utility in predicting TNBC.

  1. Preventing Elder Abuse: Identificaton of High Risk Factors Prior to Placement Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosberg, Jordan I.

    1988-01-01

    Asserts that some elder abuse can be prevented by systematic assessment of the older person and the potential caregiver, as well as of the family constellation. Uses research findings to identify high-risk factors associated with elder abuse, factors that can be used to guide placement decisions. (Author/nB)

  2. Identification of Risk Factors for Nephrotoxicity in Patients Receiving Extended-Duration, High-Trough Vancomycin Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Contreiras, Claire; Legal, Michael; Lau, Tim T Y; Thalakada, Rosanne; Shalansky, Stephen; Ensom, Mary H H

    2014-01-01

    Background: In the past, impurities in vancomycin formulations were thought to contribute to nephrotoxicity. In contrast, when current, purer formulations are dosed at conventional trough levels (i.e., 5–15 mg/L), the incidence of nephrotoxicity is relatively low. Recent guidelines have recommended targeting higher vancomycin trough levels in treatment of complicated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infections. Dosing based on these higher trough levels may be associated with nephrotoxicity, so the potential risk factors for vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity require clearer definition. Objectives: To determine the occurrence of nephrotoxicity in patients receiving more than 7 days of vancomycin therapy with high trough levels (15–20 mg/L) and to identify and evaluate specific risk factors related to development of vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity (i.e., serum creatinine ≥ 44.2 μmol/L or increase ≥ 50% [i.e., ≥ 26.2 μmol/L] from baseline on 2 consecutive days). Methods: Health care records were reviewed for patients seen at 2 major teaching hospitals between January 2008 and March 2011. Patients who had attained high trough levels of vancomycin were screened for eligibility. Patients with unstable renal function, those undergoing hemodialysis, and those for whom dosage and/or sampling times were unclear were excluded. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors associated with nephrotoxicity. Univariate variables with p < 0.1 were included in the logistic regression model. Results: Of the 176 patients with high trough levels included in the analysis, 24 (14%) experienced nephrotoxicity. In univariate analysis, admission to a general medicine unit (the setting of care for 16 [67%] of the 24 patients with nephrotoxicity) and extended duration of vancomycin treatment were identified as risk factors for nephrotoxicity (p < 0.1). Other risk factors included gastrointestinal comorbidity (p = 0.056), malignancy

  3. Identifying childhood characteristics that underlie premorbid risk for substance use disorders: socialization and boldness.

    PubMed

    Hicks, Brian M; Iacono, William G; McGue, Matt

    2014-02-01

    We utilized a longitudinal twin study (N = 2,510) to identify the child characteristics present prior to initiation of substance use that best predicted later substance use disorders. Two independent traits accounted for the majority of premorbid risk: socialization (conformity to rules and conventional values) and boldness (sociability and social assurance, stress resilience, and thrill seeking). Low socialization was associated with disruptive behavior disorders, parental externalizing disorders, and environmental adversity and exhibited moderate genetic (0.45) and shared environmental influences (0.30). Boldness was highly heritable (0.71) and associated with less internalizing distress and environmental adversity. In combination, these traits exhibited robust associations with adolescent and young adult substance use disorders (R = .48 and .50, respectively) and incremental prediction over disruptive behavior disorders, parental externalizing disorders, and environmental adversity. The results were replicated in an independent sample. Socialization and boldness offer a novel conceptualization of underlying risk for substance use disorders that has the potential to improve prediction and theory with implications for basic research, prevention, and intervention.

  4. GWAS of cerebrospinal fluid tau levels identifies risk variants for Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Cruchaga, Carlos; Kauwe, John S K; Harari, Oscar; Jin, Sheng Chih; Cai, Yefei; Karch, Celeste M; Benitez, Bruno A; Jeng, Amanda T; Skorupa, Tara; Carrell, David; Bertelsen, Sarah; Bailey, Matthew; McKean, David; Shulman, Joshua M; De Jager, Philip L; Chibnik, Lori; Bennett, David A; Arnold, Steve E; Harold, Denise; Sims, Rebecca; Gerrish, Amy; Williams, Julie; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Lee, Virginia M-Y; Shaw, Leslie M; Trojanowski, John Q; Haines, Jonathan L; Mayeux, Richard; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Farrer, Lindsay A; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Peskind, Elaine R; Galasko, Douglas; Fagan, Anne M; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Goate, Alison M

    2013-04-24

    Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau, tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (ptau), and Aβ₄₂ are established biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and have been used as quantitative traits for genetic analyses. We performed the largest genome-wide association study for cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau/ptau levels published to date (n = 1,269), identifying three genome-wide significant loci for CSF tau and ptau: rs9877502 (p = 4.89 × 10⁻⁹ for tau) located at 3q28 between GEMC1 and OSTN, rs514716 (p = 1.07 × 10⁻⁸ and p = 3.22 × 10⁻⁹ for tau and ptau, respectively), located at 9p24.2 within GLIS3 and rs6922617 (p = 3.58 × 10⁻⁸ for CSF ptau) at 6p21.1 within the TREM gene cluster, a region recently reported to harbor rare variants that increase AD risk. In independent data sets, rs9877502 showed a strong association with risk for AD, tangle pathology, and global cognitive decline (p = 2.67 × 10⁻⁴, 0.039, 4.86 × 10⁻⁵, respectively) illustrating how this endophenotype-based approach can be used to identify new AD risk loci. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Examining the association between social cognition and functioning in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

    PubMed

    Cotter, Jack; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Papas, Alicia; Allott, Kelly; Nelson, Barnaby; Yung, Alison R; Thompson, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    Social and role functioning are compromised for the majority of individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis, and it is important to identify factors that contribute to this functional decline. This study aimed to investigate social cognitive abilities, which have previously been linked to functioning in schizophrenia, as potential factors that impact social, role and global functioning in ultra-high risk patients. A total of 30 ultra-high risk patients were recruited from an established at-risk clinical service in Melbourne, Australia, and completed a battery of social cognitive, neurocognitive, clinical and functioning measures. We examined the relationships between all four core domains of social cognition (emotion recognition, theory of mind, social perception and attributional style), neurocognitive, clinical and demographic variables with three measures of functioning (the Global Functioning Social and Role scales and the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) using correlational and multiple regression analyses. Performance on a visual theory of mind task (visual jokes task) was significantly correlated with both concurrent role ( r = 0.425, p = 0.019) and global functioning ( r = 0.540, p = 0.002). In multivariate analyses, it also accounted for unique variance in global, but not role functioning after adjusting for negative symptoms and stress. Social functioning was not associated with performance on any of the social cognition tasks. Among specific social cognitive abilities, only a test of theory of mind was associated with functioning in our ultra-high risk sample. Further longitudinal research is needed to examine the impact of social cognitive deficits on long-term functional outcome in the ultra-high risk group. Identifying social cognitive abilities that significantly impact functioning is important to inform the development of targeted intervention programmes for ultra-high risk individuals.

  6. A New Scoring System to Predict the Risk for High-risk Adenoma and Comparison of Existing Risk Calculators.

    PubMed

    Murchie, Brent; Tandon, Kanwarpreet; Hakim, Seifeldin; Shah, Kinchit; O'Rourke, Colin; Castro, Fernando J

    2017-04-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines likely over-generalizes CRC risk, 35% of Americans are not up to date with screening, and there is growing incidence of CRC in younger patients. We developed a practical prediction model for high-risk colon adenomas in an average-risk population, including an expanded definition of high-risk polyps (≥3 nonadvanced adenomas), exposing higher than average-risk patients. We also compared results with previously created calculators. Patients aged 40 to 59 years, undergoing first-time average-risk screening or diagnostic colonoscopies were evaluated. Risk calculators for advanced adenomas and high-risk adenomas were created based on age, body mass index, sex, race, and smoking history. Previously established calculators with similar risk factors were selected for comparison of concordance statistic (c-statistic) and external validation. A total of 5063 patients were included. Advanced adenomas, and high-risk adenomas were seen in 5.7% and 7.4% of the patient population, respectively. The c-statistic for our calculator was 0.639 for the prediction of advanced adenomas, and 0.650 for high-risk adenomas. When applied to our population, all previous models had lower c-statistic results although one performed similarly. Our model compares favorably to previously established prediction models. Age and body mass index were used as continuous variables, likely improving the c-statistic. It also reports absolute predictive probabilities of advanced and high-risk polyps, allowing for more individualized risk assessment of CRC.

  7. Identifying Childhood Characteristics that Underlie Pre-Morbid Risk for Substance Use Disorders: Socialization and Boldness

    PubMed Central

    Hicks, Brian M.; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing a longitudinal twin study (N = 2510), we identified the child characteristics present prior to initiation of substance use that best predicted later substance use disorders. Two independent traits accounted for the majority of pre-morbid risk: socialization (conformity to rules and conventional values) and boldness (sociability and social assurance, stress resilience, and thrill seeking). Low socialization was associated with disruptive behavior disorders, parental externalizing disorders, and environmental adversity, and exhibited moderate genetic (.45) and shared environmental influences (.30). Boldness was highly heritable (.71) and associated with less internalizing distress and environmental adversity. Together, these traits exhibited robust associations with adolescent and young adult substance use disorders (R = .48 and .50, respectively), and incremental prediction over disruptive behavior disorders, parental externalizing disorders, and environmental adversity. Results were replicated in an independent sample. Socialization and boldness offer a novel conceptualization of underlying risk for substance use disorders that has the potential to improve prediction and theory with implications for basic research, prevention, and intervention. PMID:24280373

  8. High-Risk Obtainment of Prescription Drugs by Older Adults in New Jersey: The Role of Prescription Opioids.

    PubMed

    Gold, Sarah L; Powell, Kristen Gilmore; Eversman, Michael H; Peterson, N Andrew; Borys, Suzanne; Hallcom, Donald K

    2016-10-01

    To explore the high-risk ways in which older adults obtain prescription opioids and to identify predictors of obtaining prescription opioids from high-risk sources, such as obtaining the same drug from multiple doctors, sharing drugs, and stealing prescription pads. Logistic regression analyses of cross-sectional survey data from the New Jersey Older Adult Survey on Drug Use and Health, a representative random-sample survey. Adults aged 60 and older (N = 725). Items such as obtaining prescriptions for the same drug from more than one doctor and stealing prescription drugs were measured to determine high-risk obtainment of prescription opioids. Almost 15% of the sample used high-risk methods of obtaining prescription opioids. Adults who previously used a prescription opioid recreationally had three times the risk of high-risk obtainment of prescription opioids. These findings illustrate the importance of strengthening prescription drug monitoring programs to reduce high-risk use of prescription drugs in older adults by alerting doctors and pharmacists to potential prescription drug misuse and interactions. © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.

  9. Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

    PubMed

    Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

    2010-04-01

    Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

  10. ECL-IAA and ECL-GADA Can Identify High-Risk Single Autoantibody-Positive Relatives in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study.

    PubMed

    Steck, Andrea K; Fouts, Alexandra; Miao, Dongmei; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Dong, Fran; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Rewers, Marian J; Yu, Liping

    2016-07-01

    Relatives with single positive islet autoantibodies have a much lower risk of progression to diabetes than those with multiple autoantibodies. TrialNet subjects positive for single autoantibody to insulin (mIAA) (n = 50) or single autoantibody to glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) (n = 50) were analyzed using new electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays (ECL-IAA and ECL-GADA, respectively) at their initial visit and longitudinally over time. Affinity assays were performed on a subset of single autoantibody-positive subjects at initial and most recent visits. After a mean follow-up of 5.3 years, 20 subjects developed type 1 diabetes. Among either single GADA or single mIAA subjects, those who were positive in the ECL assay showed higher affinity at the initial visit, and affinity results stayed consistent over time. No converting events from low to high or high to low affinity were seen over time. Confirmed positivity for ECL is associated with high affinity and can help staging of risk for type 1 diabetes in single autoantibody-positive subjects.

  11. ECL-IAA and ECL-GADA Can Identify High-Risk Single Autoantibody-Positive Relatives in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study

    PubMed Central

    Fouts, Alexandra; Miao, Dongmei; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Dong, Fran; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Rewers, Marian J.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: Relatives with single positive islet autoantibodies have a much lower risk of progression to diabetes than those with multiple autoantibodies. Materials and Methods: TrialNet subjects positive for single autoantibody to insulin (mIAA) (n = 50) or single autoantibody to glutamic acid decarboxylase (GADA) (n = 50) were analyzed using new electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays (ECL-IAA and ECL-GADA, respectively) at their initial visit and longitudinally over time. Affinity assays were performed on a subset of single autoantibody-positive subjects at initial and most recent visits. Results: After a mean follow-up of 5.3 years, 20 subjects developed type 1 diabetes. Among either single GADA or single mIAA subjects, those who were positive in the ECL assay showed higher affinity at the initial visit, and affinity results stayed consistent over time. No converting events from low to high or high to low affinity were seen over time. Conclusions: Confirmed positivity for ECL is associated with high affinity and can help staging of risk for type 1 diabetes in single autoantibody-positive subjects. PMID:26991969

  12. Sniping and other high-risk smoking practices among homeless youth.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Joan S; Shadel, William G; Golinelli, Daniela; Mullins, Leslie; Ewing, Brett

    2015-09-01

    This study of homeless youth uses quantitative data to estimate the prevalence of high-risk smoking practices (obtaining or using cigarettes in a way that increase exposure to toxins and/or susceptibility to infectious diseases) and identify characteristics associated in particular with sniping (smoking discarded cigarettes), and qualitative data to describe why and how homeless youth engage in sniping. A probability sample of 292 homeless youth smokers in Los Angeles County completed a self-administered survey, and a separate convenience sample of 27 homeless youth who were lifetime smokers participated in focus groups. Survey participants reported on background characteristics, smoking cognitions, and high-risk smoking practices. Focus group participants described how they obtained cigarettes and responses relevant to sniping were coded. Survey results indicated that nearly all youth engaged in at least one high-risk smoking practice, with three-quarters having sniped cigarettes in the past 30 days. Sniping was more frequent among youth with less negative smoking attitudes (b=-0.29, 95% CI=-0.55 to -0.04, p=0.02), greater nicotine dependence (b=0.11, 95% CI=0.00 to 0.23, p=0.046), lower income (b=-0.05, 95% CI=-0.09 to -0.01, p=0.02), and more severe drug abuse (b=0.15, 95% CI=0.04, 0.26, p=0.01). Focus groups data indicated that youth snipe because it provides cheap and easy access to tobacco, and use specific strategies to mitigate the perceived health risks of sniping. Sniping and other high-risk smoking practices deserve further attention among homeless youth, particularly those already facing greater health threats due to factors such as nicotine dependence, lower income, and drug abuse. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Detectable end of radiation prostate specific antigen assists in identifying men with unfavorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer at high risk of distant recurrence and cancer-specific mortality.

    PubMed

    Hayman, Jonathan; Phillips, Ryan; Chen, Di; Perin, Jamie; Narang, Amol K; Trieu, Janson; Radwan, Noura; Greco, Stephen; Deville, Curtiland; McNutt, Todd; Song, Daniel Y; DeWeese, Theodore L; Tran, Phuoc T

    2018-06-01

    Undetectable End of Radiation PSA (EOR-PSA) has been shown to predict improved survival in prostate cancer (PCa). While validating the unfavorable intermediate-risk (UIR) and favorable intermediate-risk (FIR) stratifications among Johns Hopkins PCa patients treated with radiotherapy, we examined whether EOR-PSA could further risk stratify UIR men for survival. A total of 302 IR patients were identified in the Johns Hopkins PCa database (178 UIR, 124 FIR). Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable analysis was performed via Cox regression for biochemical recurrence free survival (bRFS), distant metastasis free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS), while a competing risks model was used for PCa specific survival (PCSS). Among the 235 patients with known EOR-PSA values, we then stratified by EOR-PSA and performed the aforementioned analysis. The median follow-up time was 11.5 years (138 months). UIR was predictive of worse DMFS and PCSS (P = 0.008 and P = 0.023) on multivariable analysis (MVA). Increased radiation dose was significant for improved DMFS (P = 0.016) on MVA. EOR-PSA was excluded from the models because it did not trend towards significance as a continuous or binary variable due to interaction with UIR, and we were unable to converge a multivariable model with a variable to control for this interaction. However, when stratifying by detectable versus undetectable EOR-PSA, UIR had worse DMFS and PCSS among detectable EOR-PSA patients, but not undetectable patients. UIR was significant on MVA among detectable EOR-PSA patients for DMFS (P = 0.021) and PCSS (P = 0.033), while RT dose also predicted PCSS (P = 0.013). EOR-PSA can assist in predicting DMFS and PCSS among UIR patients, suggesting a clinically meaningful time point for considering intensification of treatment in clinical trials of intermediate-risk men. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Identifying at-risk children at school entry: the usefulness of multibehavioral problem profiles.

    PubMed

    Flanagan, Kelly S; Bierman, Karen L; Kam, Chi-Ming

    2003-09-01

    Found that 1st-grade teacher ratings of aggressive, hyperactive-inattentive, and low levels of prosocial behaviors made unique contributions to the prediction of school outcomes (measured 2 years later) for 755 children. Person-oriented analyses compared the predictive utility of 5 screening strategies based on child problem profiles to identify children at risk for school problems. A broad screening strategy, in which children with elevations in any 1 of the 3 behavior problem dimensions were identified as "at-risk," showed lower specificity but superior sensitivity, odds ratios, and overall accuracy in the prediction of school outcomes than the other screening strategies that were more narrowly focused or were based on a total problem score. Results are discussed in terms of implications for the screening and design of preventive interventions.

  15. The risk-adjusted vision beyond casemix (DRG) funding in Australia. International lessons in high complexity and capitation.

    PubMed

    Antioch, Kathryn M; Walsh, Michael K

    2004-06-01

    Hospitals throughout the world using funding based on diagnosis-related groups (DRG) have incurred substantial budgetary deficits, despite high efficiency. We identify the limitations of DRG funding that lack risk (severity) adjustment for State-wide referral services. Methods to risk adjust DRGs are instructive. The average price in casemix funding in the Australian State of Victoria is policy based, not benchmarked. Average cost weights are too low for high-complexity DRGs relating to State-wide referral services such as heart and lung transplantation and trauma. Risk-adjusted specified grants (RASG) are required for five high-complexity respiratory, cardiology and stroke DRGs incurring annual deficits of $3.6 million due to high casemix complexity and government under-funding despite high efficiency. Five stepwise linear regressions for each DRG excluded non-significant variables and assessed heteroskedasticity and multicollinearlity. Cost per patient was the dependent variable. Significant independent variables were age, length-of-stay outliers, number of disease types, diagnoses, procedures and emergency status. Diagnosis and procedure severity markers were identified. The methodology and the work of the State-wide Risk Adjustment Working Group can facilitate risk adjustment of DRGs State-wide and for Treasury negotiations for expenditure growth. The Alfred Hospital previously negotiated RASG of $14 million over 5 years for three trauma and chronic DRGs. Some chronic diseases require risk-adjusted capitation funding models for Australian Health Maintenance Organizations as an alternative to casemix funding. The use of Diagnostic Cost Groups can facilitate State and Federal government reform via new population-based risk adjusted funding models that measure health need.

  16. Identifying protective and risk factors for injurious falls in patients hospitalized for acute care: a retrospective case-control study.

    PubMed

    Aryee, Emmanuel; James, Spencer L; Hunt, Guenola M; Ryder, Hilary F

    2017-11-07

    Admitted patients who fall and injure themselves during an acute hospitalization incur increased costs, morbidity, and mortality, but little research has been conducted on identifying inpatients at high risk to injure themselves in a fall. Falls risk assessment tools have been unsuccessful due to their low positive predictive value when applied broadly to entire hospital populations. We aimed to identify variables associated with the risk of or protection against injurious fall in the inpatient setting. We also aimed to test the variables in the ABCs mnemonic (Age > 85, Bones-orthopedic conditions, anti-Coagulation and recent surgery) for correlation with injurious fall. We performed a retrospective case-control study at an academic tertiary care center comparing admitted patients with injurious fall to admitted patients without fall. We collected data on the demographics, medical and fall history, outcomes, and discharge disposition of injured fallers and control patients. We performed multivariate analysis of potential risk factors for injurious fall with logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios. We identified 117 injured fallers and 320 controls. There were no differences in age, anti-coagulation use or fragility fractures between cases and controls. In multivariate analysis, recent surgery (OR 0.46, p = 0.003) was protective; joint replacement (OR 5.58, P = 0.002), psychotropic agents (OR 2.23, p = 0.001), the male sex (OR 2.08, p = 0.003) and history of fall (OR 2.08, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with injurious fall. In this study, the variables in the ABCs parameters were among the variables not useful for identifying inpatients at risk of injuring themselves in a fall, while other non-ABCs variables demonstrated a significant association with injurious fall. Recent surgery was a protective factor, and practices around the care of surgical patients could be extrapolated to reduce the in-hospital fall rates.

  17. Can we avoid high levels of dose escalation for high-risk prostate cancer in the setting of androgen deprivation?

    PubMed Central

    Shakespeare, Thomas P; Wilcox, Shea W; Aherne, Noel J

    2016-01-01

    Aim Both dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (DE-EBRT) and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improve outcomes in patients with high-risk prostate cancer. However, there is little evidence specifically evaluating DE-EBRT for patients with high-risk prostate cancer receiving ADT, particularly for EBRT doses >74 Gy. We aimed to determine whether DE-EBRT >74 Gy improves outcomes for patients with high-risk prostate cancer receiving long-term ADT. Patients and methods Patients with high-risk prostate cancer were treated on an institutional protocol prescribing 3–6 months neoadjuvant ADT and DE-EBRT, followed by 2 years of adjuvant ADT. Between 2006 and 2012, EBRT doses were escalated from 74 Gy to 76 Gy and then to 78 Gy. We interrogated our electronic medical record to identify these patients and analyzed our results by comparing dose levels. Results In all, 479 patients were treated with a 68-month median follow-up. The 5-year biochemical disease-free survivals for the 74 Gy, 76 Gy, and 78 Gy groups were 87.8%, 86.9%, and 91.6%, respectively. The metastasis-free survivals were 95.5%, 94.5%, and 93.9%, respectively, and the prostate cancer-specific survivals were 100%, 94.4%, and 98.1%, respectively. Dose escalation had no impact on any outcome in either univariate or multivariate analysis. Conclusion There was no benefit of DE-EBRT >74 Gy in our cohort of high-risk prostate patients treated with long-term ADT. As dose escalation has higher risks of radiotherapy-induced toxicity, it may be feasible to omit dose escalation beyond 74 Gy in this group of patients. Randomized studies evaluating dose escalation for high-risk patients receiving ADT should be considered. PMID:27274277

  18. HIV risks among gay- and non-gay-identified migrant money boys in Shanghai, China.

    PubMed

    Wong, F Y; Huang, Z J; He, N; Smith, B D; Ding, Y; Fu, C; Young, D

    2008-02-01

    Men having sex with men (MSM) now account for 7% of all HIV/AIDS cases in China and there is growing awareness that internal rural-to-urban migration might shift the HIV epidemic within China by broadening social and sexual mixing. About 70% of HIV/AIDS infections are among rural residents, of whom 80% are males and 60% aged 16-29. This young, male, rural-to-urban migrant population has been identified as the 'tipping point' for the AIDS epidemic in China. A subgroup of these migrants is the 'money boy' population, i.e. those who engage in same-sex transactional sex for economic survival. However, the literature addressing money boys is very limited. The present study aims to elucidate factors for preventing substance abuse and HIV among two types of money boys 'gay-identified' and 'non-gay-identified' living in the Shanghai metropolitan area. This work is conceptually underpinned by Chng et al.'s (2003) tripartite model, which postulates that risk behaviors (e.g. substance abuse) engaged in by transient or non-native individuals are often shaped and regulated by factors in the home environment, migration experience and current environment. Results reveal gay and non-gay money boys were not significantly different in age, income, marriage status and education. Both groups shared similar patterns of substance use. Both groups had high self-reported depressive symptoms and low HIV knowledge. However, sexual orientation differentially predicted HIV testing, with gay money boys more likely to be tested for HIV. Non-gay money boys showed fewer sexual risks. HIV prevention targeting MSM (including money boys) within rapidly changing China is discussed, as are methodologies and outreach strategies most effective for particular subgroups of MSM.

  19. Management of high-risk perioperative systems.

    PubMed

    Dain, Steven

    2006-06-01

    The perioperative system is a complex system that requires people, materials, and processes to come together in a highly ordered and timely manner. However, when working in this high-risk system, even well-organized, knowledgeable, vigilant, and well-intentioned individuals will eventually make errors. All systems need to be evaluated on a continual basis to reduce the risk of errors, make errors more easily recognizable, and provide methods for error mitigation. A simple approach to risk management that may be applied in clinical medicine is discussed.

  20. High-risk squamous cell carcinoma of the ear - A potential role for sentinel node biopsy.

    PubMed

    Beecher, Suzanne; Wrafter, Paula F; Joyce, Cormac W; Regan, Padraic J; Kelly, Jack L

    2017-09-01

    Squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) of the external ear have a significant rate of metastasis. The purpose of this study was to present analyzed factors associated with auricular SCC metastasis in order to identify a group that may benefit from sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). We performed a retrospective review of all operable SCCs between 2009 and 2014. The association between high-risk features and metastasis were analyzed. One hundred eighty-nine auricular SCCs were excised. Local recurrence was noted in 11% and 9.5% developed metastases. Cartilage, perineural, and lymphovascular invasion were significantly associated with metastasis, as were increased tumor depth and diameter (P < .001). All patients with metastasis developed nodal disease. Factors, including poor differentiation, perineural, cartilage, and lymphovascular invasion, are associated with auricular SCC metastasis. Patients with 2 or more high-risk features may benefit from SLNB in order to identify and treat early nodal disease and possibly reduce the risk of further spread. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Rapid identifying high-influence nodes in complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Bo; Jiang, Guo-Ping; Song, Yu-Rong; Xia, Ling-Ling

    2015-10-01

    A tiny fraction of influential individuals play a critical role in the dynamics on complex systems. Identifying the influential nodes in complex networks has theoretical and practical significance. Considering the uncertainties of network scale and topology, and the timeliness of dynamic behaviors in real networks, we propose a rapid identifying method (RIM) to find the fraction of high-influential nodes. Instead of ranking all nodes, our method only aims at ranking a small number of nodes in network. We set the high-influential nodes as initial spreaders, and evaluate the performance of RIM by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. The simulations show that in different networks, RIM performs well on rapid identifying high-influential nodes, which is verified by typical ranking methods, such as degree, closeness, betweenness, and eigenvector centrality methods. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61374180 and 61373136), the Ministry of Education Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Fund Project, China (Grant No. 12YJAZH120), and the Six Projects Sponsoring Talent Summits of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. RLD201212).

  2. Cortical thickness and surface area in neonates at high risk for schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Shi, Feng; Lyall, Amanda E; Ahn, Mihye; Peng, Ziwen; Zhu, Hongtu; Lin, Weili; Gilmore, John H; Shen, Dinggang

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a neurodevelopmental disorder associated with subtle abnormal cortical thickness and cortical surface area. However, it is unclear whether these abnormalities exist in neonates associated with genetic risk for schizophrenia. To this end, this preliminary study was conducted to identify possible abnormalities of cortical thickness and surface area in the high-genetic-risk neonates. Structural magnetic resonance images were acquired from offspring of mothers (N = 21) who had schizophrenia (N = 12) or schizoaffective disorder (N = 9), and also matched healthy neonates of mothers who were free of psychiatric illness (N = 26). Neonatal cortical surfaces were reconstructed and parcellated as regions of interest (ROIs), and cortical thickness for each vertex was computed as the shortest distance between the inner and outer surfaces. Comparisons were made for the average cortical thickness and total surface area in each of 68 cortical ROIs. After false discovery rate (FDR) correction, it was found that the female high-genetic-risk neonates had significantly thinner cortical thickness in the right lateral occipital cortex than the female control neonates. Before FDR correction, the high-genetic-risk neonates had significantly thinner cortex in the left transverse temporal gyrus, left banks of superior temporal sulcus, left lingual gyrus, right paracentral cortex, right posterior cingulate cortex, right temporal pole, and right lateral occipital cortex, compared with the control neonates. Before FDR correction, in comparison with control neonates, male high-risk neonates had significantly thicker cortex in the left frontal pole, left cuneus cortex, and left lateral occipital cortex; while female high-risk neonates had significantly thinner cortex in the bilateral paracentral, bilateral lateral occipital, left transverse temporal, left pars opercularis, right cuneus, and right posterior cingulate cortices. The high-risk neonates also had significantly

  3. Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

    PubMed

    O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

    1998-12-01

    A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

  4. High-risk sexual activity in the House and Ball community: influence of social networks.

    PubMed

    Schrager, Sheree M; Latkin, Carl A; Weiss, George; Kubicek, Katrina; Kipke, Michele D

    2014-02-01

    We investigated the roles of House membership and the influence of social and sexual network members on the sexual risk behavior of men in the Los Angeles House and Ball community. From February 2009 to January 2010, male participants (n = 233) completed interviewer-assisted surveys during a House meeting or Ball event. We used logistic regression to model the effects of sexual network size, influence of sexual network members, House membership status, and their interactions on high-risk sex. Significant predictors of high-risk sex included number of sexual partners in the nominated social network, multiethnicity, and previous diagnosis of sexually transmitted infection. House membership was protective against high-risk sex. Additionally, a 3-way interaction emerged between number of sexual partners in the network, influence, and network members' House membership. Future research should assess network members' attitudes and behavior in detail to provide a greater understanding of the dynamics of social influence and to identify additional avenues for intervention.

  5. Early brain development in infants at high risk for autism spectrum disorder

    PubMed Central

    Hazlett, Heather Cody; Gu, Hongbin; Munsell, Brent C.; Kim, Sun Hyung; Styner, Martin; Wolff, Jason J.; Elison, Jed T.; Swanson, Meghan R.; Zhu, Hongtu; Botteron, Kelly N.; Collins, D. Louis; Constantino, John N.; Dager, Stephen R.; Estes, Annette M.; Evans, Alan C.; Fonov, Vladimir S.; Gerig, Guido; Kostopoulos, Penelope; McKinstry, Robert C.; Pandey, Juhi; Paterson, Sarah; Pruett, John R.; Schultz, Robert T.; Shaw, Dennis W.; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Piven, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    Summary Brain enlargement has been observed in children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), but the timing of this phenomenon and its relationship to the appearance of behavioral symptoms is unknown. Retrospective head circumference and longitudinal brain volume studies of 2 year olds followed up at age 4 years, have provided evidence that increased brain volume may emerge early in development.1, 2 Studies of infants at high familial risk for autism can provide insight into the early development of autism and have found that characteristic social deficits in ASD emerge during the latter part of the first and in the second year of life3,4. These observations suggest that prospective brain imaging studies of infants at high familial risk for ASD might identify early post-natal changes in brain volume occurring before the emergence of an ASD diagnosis. In this prospective neuroimaging study of 106 infants at high familial risk of ASD and 42 low-risk infants, we show that cortical surface area hyper-expansion between 6-12 months of age precedes brain volume overgrowth observed between 12-24 months in the 15 high-risk infants diagnosed with autism at 24 months. Brain volume overgrowth was linked to the emergence and severity of autistic social deficits. A deep learning algorithm primarily using surface area information from brain MRI at 6 and 12 months of age predicted the diagnosis of autism in individual high-risk children at 24 months (with a positive predictive value of 81%, sensitivity of 88%). These findings demonstrate that early brain changes unfold during the period in which autistic behaviors are first emerging. PMID:28202961

  6. Early brain development in infants at high risk for autism spectrum disorder.

    PubMed

    Hazlett, Heather Cody; Gu, Hongbin; Munsell, Brent C; Kim, Sun Hyung; Styner, Martin; Wolff, Jason J; Elison, Jed T; Swanson, Meghan R; Zhu, Hongtu; Botteron, Kelly N; Collins, D Louis; Constantino, John N; Dager, Stephen R; Estes, Annette M; Evans, Alan C; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gerig, Guido; Kostopoulos, Penelope; McKinstry, Robert C; Pandey, Juhi; Paterson, Sarah; Pruett, John R; Schultz, Robert T; Shaw, Dennis W; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Piven, Joseph

    2017-02-15

    Brain enlargement has been observed in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but the timing of this phenomenon, and the relationship between ASD and the appearance of behavioural symptoms, are unknown. Retrospective head circumference and longitudinal brain volume studies of two-year olds followed up at four years of age have provided evidence that increased brain volume may emerge early in development. Studies of infants at high familial risk of autism can provide insight into the early development of autism and have shown that characteristic social deficits in ASD emerge during the latter part of the first and in the second year of life. These observations suggest that prospective brain-imaging studies of infants at high familial risk of ASD might identify early postnatal changes in brain volume that occur before an ASD diagnosis. In this prospective neuroimaging study of 106 infants at high familial risk of ASD and 42 low-risk infants, we show that hyperexpansion of the cortical surface area between 6 and 12 months of age precedes brain volume overgrowth observed between 12 and 24 months in 15 high-risk infants who were diagnosed with autism at 24 months. Brain volume overgrowth was linked to the emergence and severity of autistic social deficits. A deep-learning algorithm that primarily uses surface area information from magnetic resonance imaging of the brain of 6-12-month-old individuals predicted the diagnosis of autism in individual high-risk children at 24 months (with a positive predictive value of 81% and a sensitivity of 88%). These findings demonstrate that early brain changes occur during the period in which autistic behaviours are first emerging.

  7. High school Bullying as a Risk for Later Depression and Suicidality

    PubMed Central

    Klomek, Anat Brunstein; Kleinman, Marjorie; Altschuler, Elizabeth; Marrocco, Frank; Amakawa, Lia; Gould, Madelyn S.

    2011-01-01

    This is the first study to examine whether high-school students experiencing frequent bullying behaviors are at risk for later depression and suicidality. 236 students who reported frequent bullying behavior without depression or suicidality during a suicide screening were interviewed four years later to reassess depression, suicidal ideation, attempts, substance problems, and functional impairment and were compared to “at-risk” youth identified during the screen, including 96 youth who also experienced bullying behavior. Youth who only reported frequent bullying behaviors (as bullies, victims or both) did not develop later depression or suicidality and continued to have fewer psychiatric problems than students identified as at-risk for suicide. Students who experienced bullying behaviors and depression or suicidality were more impaired four years later than those who had only reported depression or suicidality. Thus, assessment of bullying behaviors in screening protocols is recommended. PMID:21793875

  8. Risk for Maternal Harsh Parenting in High-Risk Families From Birth to Age Three: Does Ethnicity Matter?

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Philip A.; Kim, Hyoun K.

    2017-01-01

    Child maltreatment prevention programs typically identify at-risk families by screening for risk with limited consideration of how risk might vary by ethnicity. In this study, longitudinal data from mothers who participated in a randomized clinical trial of a home-visitation, child maltreatment prevention program (N=262) were examined to determine whether risk for harsh parenting differed among mothers who identified themselves as Spanish-speaking Latinas (n=64), English-speaking Latinas (n=102), or non-Latina Caucasians (n=96). The majority of the participants were first-time mothers (58.4%), and the average age of all participants was 23.55 years (SD=6.04). At the time of their infants’ births, the Spanish-speaking Latina mothers demonstrated higher SES risk, whereas the English-speaking Latina and non-Latina Caucasian mothers demonstrated higher psychosocial risk. Three years later, the English-speaking Latina and non-Latina Caucasian mothers reported harsher parenting behaviors than the Spanish-speaking Latina mothers. The need for prevention programs to consider how risk and protective factors differ by ethnic group membership when identifying at-risk mothers is discussed. PMID:21935658

  9. Association of spiritual/religious coping with depressive symptoms in high- and low-risk pregnant women.

    PubMed

    Vitorino, Luciano M; Chiaradia, Raíssa; Low, Gail; Cruz, Jonas Preposi; Pargament, Kenneth I; Lucchetti, Alessandra L G; Lucchetti, Giancarlo

    2018-02-01

    To investigate the role of spiritual/religious coping (SRC) on depressive symptoms in high- and low-risk pregnant women. Spiritual/religious coping is associated with physical and mental health outcomes. However, only few studies investigated the role of these strategies during pregnancy and whether low- and high-risk pregnant women have different coping mechanisms. This study is a cross-sectional comparative study. This study included a total of 160 pregnant women, 80 with low-risk pregnancy and 80 with high-risk pregnancy. The Beck Depression Inventory, the brief SRC scale and a structured questionnaire on sociodemographic and obstetric aspects were used. General linear model regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with positive and negative SRC strategies in both groups of pregnant women. Positive SRC use was high, whereas negative SRC use was low in both groups. Although we found no difference in SRC strategies between the two groups, negative SRC was associated with depression in women with high-risk pregnancy, but not in those with low-risk pregnancy. Furthermore, positive SRC was not associated with depressive symptoms in both groups. Results showed that only the negative SRC strategies of Brazilian women with high-risk pregnancies were associated with worsened mental health outcomes. Healthcare professionals, obstetricians and nurse midwives should focus on the use of negative SRC strategies in their pregnant patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. A Multi-Breed Genome-Wide Association Analysis for Canine Hypothyroidism Identifies a Shared Major Risk Locus on CFA12

    PubMed Central

    Massey, Jonathan; Dietschi, Elisabeth; Kierczak, Marcin; Lund-Ziener, Martine; Sundberg, Katarina; Thoresen, Stein Istre; Kämpe, Olle; Andersson, Göran; Ollier, William E. R.; Hedhammar, Åke; Leeb, Tosso; Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin; Kennedy, Lorna J.; Lingaas, Frode; Rosengren Pielberg, Gerli

    2015-01-01

    Hypothyroidism is a complex clinical condition found in both humans and dogs, thought to be caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors. In this study we present a multi-breed analysis of predisposing genetic risk factors for hypothyroidism in dogs using three high-risk breeds—the Gordon Setter, Hovawart and the Rhodesian Ridgeback. Using a genome-wide association approach and meta-analysis, we identified a major hypothyroidism risk locus shared by these breeds on chromosome 12 (p = 2.1x10-11). Further characterisation of the candidate region revealed a shared ~167 kb risk haplotype (4,915,018–5,081,823 bp), tagged by two SNPs in almost complete linkage disequilibrium. This breed-shared risk haplotype includes three genes (LHFPL5, SRPK1 and SLC26A8) and does not extend to the dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) class II gene cluster located in the vicinity. These three genes have not been identified as candidate genes for hypothyroid disease previously, but have functions that could potentially contribute to the development of the disease. Our results implicate the potential involvement of novel genes and pathways for the development of canine hypothyroidism, raising new possibilities for screening, breeding programmes and treatments in dogs. This study may also contribute to our understanding of the genetic etiology of human hypothyroid disease, which is one of the most common endocrine disorders in humans. PMID:26261983

  11. Poverty, AIDS and child health: identifying highest-risk children in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Cluver, Lucie; Boyes, Mark; Orkin, Mark; Sherr, Lorraine

    2013-10-11

    Identifying children at the highest risk of negative health effects is a prerequisite to effective public health policies in Southern Africa. A central ongoing debate is whether poverty, orphanhood or parental AIDS most reliably indicates child health risks. Attempts to address this key question have been constrained by a lack of data allowing distinction of AIDS-specific parental death or morbidity from other causes of orphanhood and chronic illness. To examine whether household poverty, orphanhood and parental illness (by AIDS or other causes) independently or interactively predict child health, developmental and HIV-infection risks. We interviewed 6 002 children aged 10 - 17 years in 2009 - 2011, using stratified random sampling in six urban and rural sites across three South African provinces. Outcomes were child mental health risks, educational risks and HIV-infection risks. Regression models that controlled for socio-demographic co-factors tested potential impacts and interactions of poverty, AIDS-specific and other orphanhood and parental illness status. Household poverty independently predicted child mental health and educational risks, AIDS orphanhood independently predicted mental health risks and parental AIDS illness independently predicted mental health, educational and HIV-infection risks. Interaction effects of poverty with AIDS orphanhood and parental AIDS illness were found across all outcomes. No effects, or interactions with poverty, were shown by AIDS-unrelated orphanhood or parental illness. The identification of children at highest risk requires recognition and measurement of both poverty and parental AIDS. This study shows negative impacts of poverty and AIDS-specific vulnerabilities distinct from orphanhood and adult illness more generally. Additionally, effects of interaction between family AIDS and poverty suggest that, where these co-exist, children are at highest risk of all.

  12. Evolutionary Action score of TP53 (EAp53) identifies high risk mutations associated with decreased survival and increased distant metastases in head and neck cancer

    PubMed Central

    Neskey, David M.; Osman, Abdullah A.; Ow, Thomas J.; Katsonis, Panagiotis; McDonald, Thomas; Hicks, Stephanie C.; Hsu, Teng-Kuei; Pickering, Curtis R.; Ward, Alexandra; Patel, Ameeta; Yordy, John S.; Skinner, Heath D.; Giri, Uma; Sano, Daisuke; Story, Michael D.; Beadle, Beth M.; El-Naggar, Adel K.; Kies, Merrill S.; William, William N.; Caulin, Carlos; Frederick, Mitchell; Kimmel, Marek; Myers, Jeffrey N.; Lichtarge, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    TP53 is the most frequently altered gene in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with mutations occurring in over two third of cases, but the prognostic significance of these mutations remains elusive. In the current study, we evaluated a novel computational approach termed Evolutionary Action (EAp53) to stratify patients with tumors harboring TP53 mutations as high or low risk, and validated this system in both in vivo and in vitro models. Patients with high risk TP53 mutations had the poorest survival outcomes and the shortest time to the development of distant metastases. Tumor cells expressing high risk TP53 mutations were more invasive and tumorigenic and they exhibited a higher incidence of lung metastases. We also documented an association between the presence of high risk mutations and decreased expression of TP53 target genes, highlighting key cellular pathways that are likely to be dysregulated by this subset of p53 mutations which confer particularly aggressive tumor behavior. Overall, our work validated EAp53 as a novel computational tool that may be useful in clinical prognosis of tumors harboring p53 mutations. PMID:25634208

  13. Cardiovascular risk associated with high sodium-containing drugs: A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Korb-Savoldelli, Virginie; Karras, Alexandre; Danchin, Nicolas; Durieux, Pierre; Sabatier, Brigitte

    2017-01-01

    Background Excess dietary sodium is associated with increased blood pressure (BP). Some drugs are associated with high sodium intake (in particular effervescent tablets), but the cardiovascular risk associated with such high sodium-containing drugs (HSCD) is largely underevaluated. Objectives To summarize the evidence for a potential cardiovascular risk associated with exposure to HSCD, and to highlight possible risk factors associated with this iatrogenic issue; in general and/or specific populations. Methods We conducted a systematic review, by searching electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL and grey literature between 1960 and 2015. We included studies that reported modification of cardiovascular parameters or incidence/prevalence of cardiovascular outcomes, between a group of subjects exposed to HSCD relative to a non-exposed group. The threshold used to identify HSCD was 391 mg/day. We did not consider studies evaluating exposure to sodium as an active ingredient or those focusing on dialysis solutions or enteral/parenteral nutrition. Study quality was assessed using the EPHPP tool. Results A total of eight studies met our inclusion criteria. Four reported results for short-term exposure to HSCD (≤ 7 days) on BP fluctuations. One study reported an elevation of BP (associated sodium intake: 1,656 mg/day). Four studies evaluated a long-term exposure (≥ 2 years or discontinuation of a chronic treatment). Two studies reported iatrogenic risk. For these studies, drug associated sodium intake was high (> 1,500 mg/day) in patients with comorbidities (in particular, diabetes mellitus and hypertension). Conclusion Despite numerous study limitations, this systematic review suggests three potential synergistic risk factors for cardiovascular complications after exposure to HSCD: a high sodium intake (≥ 1,500 mg/day), a long duration of exposure, and the presence of comorbidities. Further studies are required to characterize this

  14. Previously identified patellar tendinopathy risk factors differ between elite and sub-elite volleyball players.

    PubMed

    Janssen, I; Steele, J R; Munro, B J; Brown, N A T

    2015-06-01

    Patellar tendinopathy is the most common knee injury incurred in volleyball, with its prevalence in elite athletes more than three times that of their sub-elite counterparts. The purpose of this study was to determine whether patellar tendinopathy risk factors differed between elite and sub-elite male volleyball players. Nine elite and nine sub-elite male volleyball players performed a lateral stop-jump block movement. Maximum vertical jump, training history, muscle extensibility and strength, three-dimensional landing kinematics (250 Hz), along with lower limb neuromuscular activation patterns (1500 Hz), and patellar tendon loading were collected during each trial. Multivariate analyses of variance (P < 0.05) assessed for between-group differences in risk factors or patellar tendon loading. Significant interaction effects were further evaluated using post-hoc univariate analysis of variance tests. Landing kinematics, neuromuscular activation patterns, patellar tendon loading, and most of the previously identified risk factors did not differ between the elite and sub-elite players. However, elite players participated in a higher training volume and had less quadriceps extensibility than sub-elite players. Therefore, high training volume is likely the primary contributor to the injury discrepancy between elite and sub-elite volleyball players. Interventions designed to reduce landing frequency and improve quadriceps extensibility are recommended to reduce patellar tendinopathy prevalence in volleyball players. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Exemestane Reduces Breast Cancer Risk in High-Risk Postmenopausal Women

    Cancer.gov

    Clinical trial results presented at the 2011 ASCO annual meeting showed that the aromatase inhibitor exemestane—used to treat early and advanced breast cancer—substantially reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women.

  16. Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Drenkhan, Fabian; León, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Driven by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the past years have seen a move from a vulnerability concept of climate change impacts towards a risk framework. Risk is now conceived at the intersection of climate-driven hazard and socioeconomic-driven vulnerability and exposure. The concept of risk so far has been mainly adopted for sudden-onset events. However, for slow-onset and cumulative climate change impacts such as changing water resources there is missing clarity and experience how to apply a risk framework. Research has hardly dealt with the challenge of how to integrate both low and high flow risks in a common framework. Comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate-sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity and inconsistencies represent important limitations. Here we review existing vulnerability and risk assessments of low and high flow water conditions and identify critical conceptual and practical gaps. Based on this, we develop an integrated framework for low and high flow water risks which is applicable to both past and future conditions. The framework explicitly considers a water balance model simulating both water supply and demand on a daily basis. We test and apply this new framework in the highly glacierized Santa River catchment (SRC, Cordillera Blanca, Peru), representative for many developing mountain regions with both low and high flow water risks and poor data availability. In fact, in the SRC, both low and high flow hazards, such as droughts and floods, play a central role especially for agricultural, hydropower, domestic and mining use. During the dry season (austral winter) people are increasingly affected by water scarcity due to shrinking glaciers supplying melt water. On the other hand during the wet season (austral summer) high flow water

  17. Using association rule mining to identify risk factors for early childhood caries.

    PubMed

    Ivančević, Vladimir; Tušek, Ivan; Tušek, Jasmina; Knežević, Marko; Elheshk, Salaheddin; Luković, Ivan

    2015-11-01

    Early childhood caries (ECC) is a potentially severe disease affecting children all over the world. The available findings are mostly based on a logistic regression model, but data mining, in particular association rule mining, could be used to extract more information from the same data set. ECC data was collected in a cross-sectional analytical study of the 10% sample of preschool children in the South Bačka area (Vojvodina, Serbia). Association rules were extracted from the data by association rule mining. Risk factors were extracted from the highly ranked association rules. Discovered dominant risk factors include male gender, frequent breastfeeding (with other risk factors), high birth order, language, and low body weight at birth. Low health awareness of parents was significantly associated to ECC only in male children. The discovered risk factors are mostly confirmed by the literature, which corroborates the value of the methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Correspondence between Psychometric and Clinical High Risk for Psychosis in an Undergraduate Population

    PubMed Central

    Cicero, David C.; Martin, Elizabeth A.; Becker, Theresa M.; Docherty, Anna; Kerns, John G.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the common use of either psychometric or clinical methods for identifying individuals at risk for psychosis, previous research has not examined the correspondence and extent of convergence of these two approaches. Undergraduates (n = 160), selected from a larger pool, completed three self-report schizotypy scales, the Magical Ideation Scale, the Perceptual Aberration Scale, and the Revised Social Anhedonia Scale, and were administered the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). First, high correlations were observed for self-report and interview-rated psychotic like experiences (rs between .48 and .61, p < .001). Second, 77 percent of individuals identified as having a risk for psychosis with the self-report measures reported at least one clinically meaningful psychotic-like experience on the SIPS. Third, receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that the self-report scales can be used to identify which participants report clinically meaningful positive symptoms. These results suggest that mostly white undergraduate participants identified as at risk with the psychometric schizotypy approach report clinically meaningful psychotic-like experiences in an interview format and that the schizotypy scales are moderately to strongly correlated with interview-rated psychotic-like experiences. The results of the current research provide a baseline for comparing research between these two approaches. PMID:24708081

  19. Project START: Using a Multiple Intelligences Model in Identifying and Promoting Talent in High-Risk Students. Research Monograph 95136.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callahan, Carolyn M.; Tomlinson, Carol A.; Moon, Tonya R.; Tomchin, Ellen M.; Plucker, Jonathan A.

    This monograph describes Project START (Support To Affirm Rising Talent), a three-year collaborative research effort to develop and apply gifted identification procedures based on Howard Gardner's (1983) theory of multiple intelligences. Specifically, the study attempted to: (1) develop identification procedures; (2) identify high-potential…

  20. Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci

    PubMed Central

    Tromp, Gerard; Kuivaniemi, Helena; Gretarsdottir, Solveig; Baas, Annette F.; Giusti, Betti; Strauss, Ewa; van‘t Hof, Femke N.G.; Webb, Thomas R.; Erdman, Robert; Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Elmore, James R.; Verma, Anurag; Pendergrass, Sarah; Kullo, Iftikhar J.; Ye, Zi; Peissig, Peggy L.; Gottesman, Omri; Verma, Shefali S.; Malinowski, Jennifer; Rasmussen-Torvik, Laura J.; Borthwick, Kenneth M.; Smelser, Diane T.; Crosslin, David R.; de Andrade, Mariza; Ryer, Evan J.; McCarty, Catherine A.; Böttinger, Erwin P.; Pacheco, Jennifer A.; Crawford, Dana C.; Carrell, David S.; Gerhard, Glenn S.; Franklin, David P.; Carey, David J.; Phillips, Victoria L.; Williams, Michael J.A.; Wei, Wenhua; Blair, Ross; Hill, Andrew A.; Vasudevan, Thodor M.; Lewis, David R.; Thomson, Ian A.; Krysa, Jo; Hill, Geraldine B.; Roake, Justin; Merriman, Tony R.; Oszkinis, Grzegorz; Galora, Silvia; Saracini, Claudia; Abbate, Rosanna; Pulli, Raffaele; Pratesi, Carlo; Saratzis, Athanasios; Verissimo, Ana R.; Bumpstead, Suzannah; Badger, Stephen A.; Clough, Rachel E.; Cockerill, Gillian; Hafez, Hany; Scott, D. Julian A.; Futers, T. Simon; Romaine, Simon P.R.; Bridge, Katherine; Griffin, Kathryn J.; Bailey, Marc A.; Smith, Alberto; Thompson, Matthew M.; van Bockxmeer, Frank M.; Matthiasson, Stefan E.; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Blankensteijn, Jan D.; Teijink, Joep A.W.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Lindholt, Jes S.; Hughes, Anne; Bradley, Declan T.; Stirrups, Kathleen; Golledge, Jonathan; Norman, Paul E.; Powell, Janet T.; Humphries, Steve E.; Hamby, Stephen E.; Goodall, Alison H.; Nelson, Christopher P.; Sakalihasan, Natzi; Courtois, Audrey; Ferrell, Robert E.; Eriksson, Per; Folkersen, Lasse; Franco-Cereceda, Anders; Eicher, John D.; Johnson, Andrew D.; Betsholtz, Christer; Ruusalepp, Arno; Franzén, Oscar; Schadt, Eric E.; Björkegren, Johan L.M.; Lipovich, Leonard; Drolet, Anne M.; Verhoeven, Eric L.; Zeebregts, Clark J.; Geelkerken, Robert H.; van Sambeek, Marc R.; van Sterkenburg, Steven M.; de Vries, Jean-Paul; Stefansson, Kari; Thompson, John R.; de Bakker, Paul I.W.; Deloukas, Panos; Sayers, Robert D.; Harrison, Seamus C.; van Rij, Andre M.; Samani, Nilesh J.

    2017-01-01

    Rationale: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA. Objective: To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies. Methods and Results: Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9. Conclusions: The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease. PMID:27899403

  1. Antecedents of Compliance in 2-Year-Olds From a High-Risk Sample.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erickson, Martha Farrell; Crichton, Leslie

    In order to identify antecedents of infant's compliance with mothers' directions on how to solve four tasks (graded in terms of stressfulness to the infant), 194 high-risk mothers and their 2-year-old children were observed on videotape and assessed with a six-point rating scale. Data collected prenatally and postnatally at 3, 6, 12 and 18 months…

  2. Type 2 diabetes mellitus disease risk genes identified by genome wide copy number variation scan in normal populations.

    PubMed

    Prabhanjan, Manasa; Suresh, Raviraj V; Murthy, Megha N; Ramachandra, Nallur B

    2016-03-01

    To identify the role of copy number variations (CNVs) on disease risk genes and its effect on disease phenotypes in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 12 random populations using high throughput arrays. CNV analysis was carried out on a total of 1715 individuals from 12 populations, from ArrayExpress Archive of the European Bioinformatics Institute along with our subjects using Affymetrix Genome Wide SNP 6.0 array. CNV effect on T2DM genes were analyzed using several bioinformatics tools and a molecular protein interaction network was constructed to identify the disease mechanism altered by the CNVs. Analysis showed 34.4% of the total population to be under CNV burden for T2DM, with 83 disease causal and associated genes being under CNV influence. Hotspots were identified on chromosomes 22, 12, 6, 19 and 11.Overlap studies with case cohorts revealed significant disease risk genes such as EGFR, E2F1, PPP1R3A, HLA and TSPAN8. CNVs play a significant role in predisposing T2DM in normal cohorts and contribute to the phenotypic effects. Thus, CNVs should be considered as one of the major contributors in predisposition of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [Identifying clinical risk factors in recurrent idiopathic deep venous thrombosis].

    PubMed

    Del Río Solá, M Lourdes; González Fajardo, José Antonio; Vaquero Puerta, Carlos

    2016-03-18

    Oral anticoagulant therapy for more than 6 months in patients with an episode of idiopathic thromboembolic disease is controversial. The objective was to determine predictive clinical signs that identify patients at increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic deep vein thrombosis (DVT). A prospective study which included 306 consecutive patients with a first episode of idiopathic DVT from June 2012 to June 2014. Predictor variables of recurrent thromboembolic disease and episodes of recurrence during follow-up of the patients (28.42 months) were collected. We performed a multivariate analysis to analyze possible predictors (P<.20) and an analysis of Kaplan-Meier to establish mean recurrence-free survival. We identified 91 episodes of residual vein thrombosis on follow-up of the patients (37.5% men and 20.3% women) (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.25-2.71). In the Cox regression analysis stratified by gender, variables showed significant presence of hyperechoic thrombus (P=.001) in males, and persistence of residual thrombus in women (P=.046). The mean recurrence-free survival was shorter in both groups. The presence of echogenic thrombus in men and the existence of residual DVT in women were 2 clinical signs associated with increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic DVT in our study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Identifying beliefs underlying pre-drivers' intentions to take risks: An application of the Theory of Planned Behaviour.

    PubMed

    Rowe, Richard; Andrews, Elizabeth; Harris, Peter R; Armitage, Christopher J; McKenna, Frank P; Norman, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Novice motorists are at high crash risk during the first few months of driving. Risky behaviours such as speeding and driving while distracted are well-documented contributors to crash risk during this period. To reduce this public health burden, effective road safety interventions need to target the pre-driving period. We use the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to identify the pre-driver beliefs underlying intentions to drive over the speed limit (N=77), and while over the legal alcohol limit (N=72), talking on a hand-held mobile phone (N=77) and feeling very tired (N=68). The TPB explained between 41% and 69% of the variance in intentions to perform these behaviours. Attitudes were strong predictors of intentions for all behaviours. Subjective norms and perceived behavioural control were significant, though weaker, independent predictors of speeding and mobile phone use. Behavioural beliefs underlying these attitudes could be separated into those reflecting perceived disadvantages (e.g., speeding increases my risk of crash) and advantages (e.g., speeding gives me a thrill). Interventions that can make these beliefs safer in pre-drivers may reduce crash risk once independent driving has begun. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Public health campaigns and their effect on stroke knowledge in a high-risk urban population: A five-year study.

    PubMed

    Metias, Maged M; Eisenberg, Naomi; Clemente, Michael D; Wooster, Elizabeth M; Dueck, Andrew D; Wooster, Douglas L; Roche-Nagle, Graham

    2017-10-01

    Background The level of knowledge of stroke risk factors and stroke symptoms within a population may determine their ability to recognize and ultimately react to a stroke. Independent agencies have addressed this through extensive awareness campaigns. The aim of this study was to determine the change in baseline knowledge of stroke risk factors, symptoms, and source of stroke knowledge in a high-risk Toronto population between 2010 and 2015. Methods Questionnaires were distributed to adults presenting to cardiovascular clinics at the University of Toronto in Toronto, Canada. In 2010 and 2015, a total of 207 and 818 individuals, respectively, participated in the study. Participants were identified as stroke literate if they identified (1) at least one stroke risk factor and (2) at least one stroke symptom. Results A total of 198 (95.6%) and 791 (96.7%) participants, respectively, completed the questionnaire in 2010 and 2015. The most frequently identified risk factors for stroke in 2010 and 2015 were, respectively, smoking (58.1%) and hypertension (49.0%). The most common stroke symptom identified was trouble speaking (56.6%) in 2010 and weakness, numbness or paralysis (67.1%) in 2015. Approximately equal percentages of respondents were able to identify ≥1 risk factor (80.3% vs. 83.1%, p = 0.34) and ≥1 symptom (90.9% vs. 88.7%, p = 0.38). Overall, the proportion of respondents who were able to correctly list ≥1 stroke risk factors and stroke symptoms was similar in both groups.(76.8% vs. 75.5%, p = 0.70). The most commonly reported stroke information resource was television (61.1% vs. 67.6%, p = 0.09). Conclusion Stroke literacy has remained stable in this selected high-risk population despite large investments in public campaigns over recent years. However, the baseline remains high over the study period. Evaluation of previous campaigns and development of targeted advertisements using more commonly used media sources offer opportunities to

  6. Mapping intra-urban malaria risk using high resolution satellite imagery: a case study of Dar es Salaam.

    PubMed

    Kabaria, Caroline W; Molteni, Fabrizio; Mandike, Renata; Chacky, Frank; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

    2016-07-30

    With more than half of Africa's population expected to live in urban settlements by 2030, the burden of malaria among urban populations in Africa continues to rise with an increasing number of people at risk of infection. However, malaria intervention across Africa remains focused on rural, highly endemic communities with far fewer strategic policy directions for the control of malaria in rapidly growing African urban settlements. The complex and heterogeneous nature of urban malaria requires a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of urban malaria risk in order to design effective urban malaria control programs. In this study, we use remotely sensed variables and other environmental covariates to examine the predictability of intra-urban variations of malaria infection risk across the rapidly growing city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania between 2006 and 2014. High resolution SPOT satellite imagery was used to identify urban environmental factors associated malaria prevalence in Dar es Salaam. Supervised classification with a random forest classifier was used to develop high resolution land cover classes that were combined with malaria parasite prevalence data to identify environmental factors that influence localized heterogeneity of malaria transmission and develop a high resolution predictive malaria risk map of Dar es Salaam. Results indicate that the risk of malaria infection varied across the city. The risk of infection increased away from the city centre with lower parasite prevalence predicted in administrative units in the city centre compared to administrative units in the peri-urban suburbs. The variation in malaria risk within Dar es Salaam was shown to be influenced by varying environmental factors. Higher malaria risks were associated with proximity to dense vegetation, inland water and wet/swampy areas while lower risk of infection was predicted in densely built-up areas. The predictive maps produced can serve as valuable resources for

  7. Implementing the High Risk Rural Roads Program

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-03-01

    This report documents common challenges, noteworthy practices and lessons learned experienced through the implementation of the High Risk Rural Roads Program. After 4 years of the High Risk Rural Roads Program (HRRRP), the overall obligation rate for...

  8. Identifying Trajectories of Adolescents' Depressive Phenomena: An Examination of Early Risk Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mazza, James J.; Fleming, Charles B.; Abbott, Robert D.; Haggerty, Kevin P.; Catalano, Richard F.

    2010-01-01

    Few studies have examined risk factors of childhood and early adolescent depressive symptomatology trajectories. This study examined self-report depressive symptomatology across a 6-year time period from 2nd to 8th grade to identify latent groups of individuals with similar patterns of depressive phenomena in a sample of 951 children (440 girls,…

  9. Can dysfunctional HDL explain high coronary artery disease risk in South Asians?

    PubMed

    Dodani, Sunita; Kaur, Rajwinderjit; Reddy, Srinavasa; Reed, Guy L; Navab, Mohammad; George, Varghese

    2008-09-16

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in United States, and South Asian immigrants (SAIs) have a higher risk for CAD compare to Caucasians. Traditional risk factors do not completely explain high risk, and some of the unknown risk factors need to be explored. We assessed dysfunctional pro-inflammatory high density lipoprotein (HDL) in SAIs and assessed its association with sub-clinical CAD using carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) as a surrogate marker for atherosclerosis. Cross-sectional study on SAIs aged 40-65 years. Sub-clinical CAD was measured using carotid intima media thickness (IMT) as a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis. Dysfunctional or pro-inflammatory HDL was determined by novel cell free assay and HDL inflammatory Index. Dysfunctional HDL was found in the 50% participants, with HDL-inflammatory index of >or=1.00, suggesting pro-inflammatory HDL (95% CI, 0.8772-1.4333). The prevalence of sub-clinical CAD using carotid IMT (>or=0.80 mm) was seen in 41.4% (95% CI, 0.2347-0.5933). On logistic regression analysis, positive carotid IMT was found to be associated with dysfunctional HDL after adjusting for age, family history of cardiovascular disease, and hypertension (p=0.030). The measurement of HDL level as well as functionality plays an important role in CAD risk assessment. Those SAIs with dysfunctional HDL and without known CAD can be a high risk group requiring treatment with lipid lowering drugs to reduce future risk of CAD. Further large studies are required to explore association of dysfunctional HDL with CAD and identify additional CAD risk caused by dysfunctional HDL.

  10. [High-risk sexual behaviour by partner type among men who have sex with men].

    PubMed

    Folch, Cinta; Fernández-Dávila, Percy; Ferrer, Laia; Soriano, Raúl; Díez, Mercedes; Casabona, Jordi

    2014-01-01

    To identify factors associated with high risk sexual practices among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Spain. An online survey was conducted in 2010, which included, among others, questions on HIV/STI sexual behaviours and prevention needs. Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with a partner of unknown or discordant HIV status in the past year was defined as a high risk sexual behaviour. Of the 13,111 participants, 49.4% had had sex with steady partners (SP) and 73.4% with non-steady partners (NSP) in the last 12months; and the prevalence of high risk UAI was 25.4% and 29.4%, respectively. Factors associated with high risk UAI with SP were: living in a city of less than 500,000 inhabitants (OR=1.42 <100,000 inhabitants), being out to no-one or only a few people (OR=1.42), and being HIV-positive with undetectable viral load among those with a high level of HIV/STI knowledge (OR=3.18). Factors associated with high risk UAI with NSP were mainly: having a higher number of sexual partners (OR=4.31 >50 partners), having used drugs for sex (OR=1.33), and at parties (OR=1.19), having a medium (OR=1.82) or low (OR=1.33) level of HIV/STI knowledge, and being HIV-positive (OR=1.56). Among MSM, the prevalence of high risk sexual practices is high with both SP and NSP. Factors associated with high risk UAI vary by type of sexual partner (e.g., having HIV with an undetectable viral load). These must be taken into account when planning strategies for primary and secondary prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  11. Does specific psychopathology predict development of psychosis in ultra high-risk (UHR) patients?

    PubMed

    Thompson, Andrew; Nelson, Barnaby; Bruxner, Annie; O'Connor, Karen; Mossaheb, Nilufar; Simmons, Magenta B; Yung, Alison

    2013-04-01

    Studies have attempted to identify additional risk factors within the group identified as 'ultra high risk' (UHR) for developing psychotic disorders in order to characterise those at highest risk. However, these studies have often neglected clinical symptom types as additional risk factors. We aimed to investigate the relationship between baseline clinical psychotic or psychotic-like symptoms and the subsequent transition to a psychotic disorder in a UHR sample. A retrospective 'case-control' methodology was used. We identified all individuals from a UHR clinic who had subsequently developed a psychotic disorder (cases) and compared these to a random sample of individuals from the clinic who did not become psychotic within the sampling time frame (controls). The sample consisted of 120 patients (60 cases, 60 controls). An audit tool was used to identify clinical symptoms reported at entry to the clinic (baseline) using the clinical file. Diagnosis at transition was assessed using the Operational Criteria for Psychotic Illness (OPCRIT) computer program. The relationship between transition to a psychotic disorder and baseline symptoms was explored using survival analysis. Presence of thought disorder, any delusions and elevated mood significantly predicted transition to a psychotic disorder. When other symptoms were adjusted for, only the presence of elevated mood significantly predicted subsequent transition (hazard ratio 2.69, p = 0.002). Thought disorder was a predictor of transition to a schizophrenia-like psychotic disorder (hazard ratio 3.69, p = 0.008). Few individual clinical symptoms appear to be predictive of transition to a psychotic disorder in the UHR group. Clinicians should be cautious about the use of clinical profile alone in such individuals when determining who is at highest risk.

  12. Venous Thromboembolism Risk and Adequacy of Prophylaxis in High Risk Pregnancy in the Arabian Gulf

    PubMed Central

    Alsayegh, Faisal; Al-Jassar, Waleed; Wani, Salima; Tahlak, Muna; Al-Bahar, Awatef; Al-Kharusi, Lamya; Al-Tamimi, Halima; El-Taher, Faten; Mahmood, Naeema; Al-Zakwani, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk factors in pregnancy and the proportion of pregnancies at risk of VTE that received the recommended prophylaxis according to the American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) 2012 published guidelines in antenatal clinics in the Arabian Gulf. Methods: The evaluation of venous thromboembolism (EVE)-Risk project was a non-interventional, cross-sectional, multi-centre, multi-national study of all eligible pregnant women (≥17 years) screened during antenatal clinics from 7 centres in the Arabian Gulf countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman). Pregnant women were recruited during a 3-month period between September and December 2012. Results: Of 4,131 screened pregnant women, 32% (n=1,337) had ≥1 risk factors for VTE. Common VTE risk factors included obesity (76%), multiparity (33%), recurrent miscarriages (9.1%), varicose veins (6.9%), thrombophilia (2.6%), immobilization (2.0%), sickle cell disease (2.8%) and previous VTE (1.6%). Only 8.3% (n=111) of the high risk patients were on the recommended VTE prophylaxis. Enoxaparin was used in 80% (n=89) of the cases followed by tinzaparin (4%; n=4). Antiplatelet agents were prescribed in 11% (n=149) of pregnant women. Of those on anticoagulants (n=111), 59% (n=66) were also co-prescribed antiplatelet agents. Side effects (mainly local bruising at the injection site) were reported in 12% (n=13) of the cases. Conclusion: A large proportion of pregnant women in the Arabian Gulf countries have ≥1 VTE risk factor with even a smaller fraction on prophylaxis. VTE risk assessment must be adopted to identify those at risk who would need VTE prophylaxis. PMID:26517701

  13. Targeting Persons With or At High Risk for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease by State-based Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Pleasants, Roy A.; Heidari, Khosrow; Wheaton, Anne G.; Ohar, Jill A.; Strange, Charlie; Croft, Janet B.; Liao, Winston; Mannino, David M.; Kraft, Monica

    2015-01-01

    The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey is used to estimate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) prevalence and could be expanded to describe respiratory symptoms in the general population and to characterize persons with or at high risk for the disease. Tobacco duration and respiratory symptom questions were added to the 2012 South Carolina BRFSS. Data concerning sociodemographics, chronic illnesses, health behaviors, and respiratory symptoms were collected in 9438 adults ≥ 35 years-old. Respondents were categorized as having COPD, high risk, or low risk for the disease. High risk was defined as no self-reported COPD, ≥ 10 years’ tobacco use, and ≥ 1 respiratory symptom (frequent productive cough or shortness of breath (SOB), or breathing problems affecting activities). Prevalence of self-reported and high-risk COPD were 9.1% and 8.0%, respectively. Overall, 17.3%, 10.6%, and 5.2% of all respondents reported activities limited by breathing problems, frequent productive cough, and frequent SOB, respectively. The high-risk group was more likely than the COPD group to report a productive cough and breathing problems limiting activities as well as being current smokers, male, and African-American. Health impairment was more severe in the COPD than the high-risk group, and both were worse than the low-risk group. Conclusions Persons at high risk for COPD share many, but not all, of the characteristics of persons diagnosed with the disease. Additional questions addressing smoking duration and respiratory symptoms in the BRFSS identifies groups at high risk for having or developing COPD who may benefit from smoking cessation and case-finding interventions. PMID:26367193

  14. Teamwork in high-risk environments analogous to space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanki, Barbara G.

    1990-01-01

    Mountaineering expeditions combine a number of factors which make them potentially good analogs to the planetary exploration facet of long-duration space missions. A study of mountain climbing teams was conducted in order to evaluate the usefulness of the environment as a space analog and to specifically identify the factors and issues surrounding teamwork and 'successful' team performance in two mountaineering environments. This paper focuses on social/organizational factors, including team size and structure, leadership styles and authority structure which were found in the sample of 22 climb teams (122 individuals). The second major issue discussed is the construction of a valid performance measure in this high-risk environment.

  15. Hospital readmission following transplantation: identifying risk factors and designing preventive measures.

    PubMed

    McKenna, Dorothy R; Sullivan, Matthew R; Hill, John M; Lowrey, Christopher H; Brown, Jeremiah R; Hickman, Joshua; Meehan, Kenneth R

    2015-09-01

    About 1 in 7 of all hospitalized patients is readmitted within 30 days of discharge. The cost of readmissions is significant, with Medicare readmissions alone costing the health care system an estimated $28 billion a year. To identify the rates of and causes for readmission within 100 days of patients receiving a hematopoietic stem cell transplant. We performed a retrospective review of 235 consecutive transplant recipients (autologous, n = 144; allogeneic, n = 91) to determine rates and causes for readmission within 100 days of patients receiving a transplant. Medical records and hospital readmissions were reviewed for each patient. 36 allogeneic patients accounted for 56 readmissions. 23 autologous patients accounted for 26 readmissions. Autologous transplant recipients were most commonly readmitted for the development of a fever (n = 15 patients) or cardiopulmonary issues (n = 4). The most prevalent reasons for readmission in the allogeneic recipients included a fever (n = 21) or the development or exacerbation of graft-versus-host disease (n = 5). The readmission length of stay was 6 days (median range, 1-91 days) for allogeneic patients and 4 days (median range, 1-22 days) for autologous patients. There was no difference in survival between the readmitted and the non-readmitted cohorts ( = .55 for allogeneic patients; = .24 for autologous patients). Although allogeneic graft recipients demonstrated a higher readmission rate (39.6%) compared with autologous recipients (16%), none of the variables examined, including age, gender, performance status, diagnosis, remission status at the time of transplant, comorbidities, type of preparative chemotherapy regimen or donor type, identified patients at increased risk for readmission. Variations in clinical care, physician practices, and patient characteristics need to be considered when examining readmission rates. Most of the allogeneic patient population included unrelated donor recipients (65%) who received

  16. Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain.

    PubMed

    Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C

    2018-02-21

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

  17. Application of High-Throughput In Vitro Assays for Risk-Based ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Multiple drivers shape the types of human-health assessments performed on chemicals by U.S. EPA resulting in chemical assessments are “fit-for-purpose” ranging from prioritization for further testing to full risk assessments. Layered on top of the diverse assessment needs are the resource intensive nature of traditional toxicological studies used to test chemicals and the lack of toxicity information on many chemicals. To address these challenges, the Agency initiated the ToxCast program to screen thousands of chemicals across hundreds of high-throughput screening assays in concentrations-response format. One of the findings of the project has been that the majority of chemicals interact with multiple biological targets within a narrow concentration range and the extent of interactions increases rapidly near the concentration causing cytotoxicity. This means that application of high-throughput in vitro assays to chemical assessments will need to identify both the relative selectivity at chemicals interact with biological targets and the concentration at which these interactions perturb signaling pathways. The integrated analyses will be used to both define a point-of-departure for comparison with human exposure estimates and identify which chemicals may benefit from further studies in a mode-of-action or adverse outcome pathway framework. The application of new technologies in a risk-based, tiered manner provides flexibility in matching throughput and cos

  18. Pyrimethamine as a Potent and Selective Inhibitor of Acute Myeloid Leukemia Identified by High-throughput Drug Screening.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Amit; Jyotsana, Nidhi; Lai, Courteney K; Chaturvedi, Anuhar; Gabdoulline, Razif; Görlich, Kerstin; Murphy, Cecilia; Blanchard, Jan E; Ganser, Arnold; Brown, Eric; Hassell, John A; Humphries, R Keith; Morgan, Michael; Heuser, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell differentiation are blocked in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) resulting in cytopenias and a high risk of death. Most patients with AML become resistant to treatment due to lack of effective cytotoxic and differentiation promoting compounds. High MN1 expression confers poor prognosis to AML patients and induces resistance to cytarabine and alltrans-retinoic acid (ATRA) induced differentiation. Using a high-throughput drug screening, we identified the dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) antagonist pyrimethamine to be a potent inducer of apoptosis and differentiation in several murine and human leukemia cell lines. Oral pyrimethamine treatment was effective in two xenograft mouse models and specifically targeted leukemic cells in human AML cell lines and primary patient cells, while CD34+ cells from healthy donors were unaffected. The antileukemic effects of PMT could be partially rescued by excess folic acid, suggesting an oncogenic function of folate metabolism in AML. Thus, our study identifies pyrimethamine as a candidate drug that should be further evaluated in AML treatment.

  19. The biopsied donor liver: incorporating macrosteatosis into high-risk donor assessment.

    PubMed

    Spitzer, Austin L; Lao, Oliver B; Dick, André A S; Bakthavatsalam, Ramasamy; Halldorson, Jeffrey B; Yeh, Matthew M; Upton, Melissa P; Reyes, Jorge D; Perkins, James D

    2010-07-01

    To expand the donor liver pool, ways are sought to better define the limits of marginally transplantable organs. The Donor Risk Index (DRI) lists 7 donor characteristics, together with cold ischemia time and location of the donor, as risk factors for graft failure. We hypothesized that donor hepatic steatosis is an additional independent risk factor. We analyzed the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients for all adult liver transplants performed from October 1, 2003, through February 6, 2008, with grafts from deceased donors to identify donor characteristics and procurement logistics parameters predictive of decreased graft survival. A proportional hazard model of donor variables, including percent steatosis from higher-risk donors, was created with graft survival as the primary outcome. Of 21,777 transplants, 5051 donors had percent macrovesicular steatosis recorded on donor liver biopsy. Compared to the 16,726 donors with no recorded liver biopsy, the donors with biopsied livers had a higher DRI, were older and more obese, and a higher percentage died from anoxia or stroke than from head trauma. The donors whose livers were biopsied became our study group. Factors most strongly associated with graft failure at 1 year after transplantation with livers from this high-risk donor group were donor age, donor liver macrovesicular steatosis, cold ischemia time, and donation after cardiac death status. In conclusion, in a high-risk donor group, macrovesicular steatosis is an independent risk factor for graft survival, along with other factors of the DRI including donor age, donor race, donation after cardiac death status, and cold ischemia time.

  20. Liver stiffness and platelet count for identifying patients with compensated liver disease at low risk of variceal bleeding.

    PubMed

    Marot, Astrid; Trépo, Eric; Doerig, Christopher; Schoepfer, Alain; Moreno, Christophe; Deltenre, Pierre

    2017-05-01

    The 2015 Baveno VI guidelines recommend against performing upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in patients with compensated cirrhosis who have a liver stiffness <20 kPa and a platelet count >150 000/mm³ because of a low prevalence of varices at risk of bleeding in this population. The aim was to synthesize the available evidence on the usefulness of the combined use of liver stiffness and platelet count to identify patients without oesophageal varices. Meta-analysis of trials evaluating the usefulness of a given cut-off for liver stiffness and platelet count to rule out the presence of oesophageal varices. Fifteen studies were included. All studies excepting five used the Baveno VI criteria. Compared to patients with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count, those with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count had a lower risk of varices at risk of bleeding (OR=0.22, 95% CI=0.13-0.39, P<.001) with low heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =21%). They also had a lower risk of varices (OR=0.23, 95% CI=0.17-0.32, P<.001) with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =28%). In patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count, the pooled estimate rates for varices at risk of bleeding was 0.040 (95% CI=0.027-0.059) with low heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =3%). Patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count have a lower risk of varices than those with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count. Varices at risk of bleeding are found in no more than 4% of patients when liver stiffness is <20 kPa and platelet count is normal. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.