A phase coherence approach to identifying co-located earthquakes and tremor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawthorne, J. C.; Ampuero, J.-P.

2018-05-01

We present and use a phase coherence approach to identify seismic signals that have similar path effects but different source time functions: co-located earthquakes and tremor. The method used is a phase coherence-based implementation of empirical matched field processing, modified to suit tremor analysis. It works by comparing the frequency-domain phases of waveforms generated by two sources recorded at multiple stations. We first cross-correlate the records of the two sources at a single station. If the sources are co-located, this cross-correlation eliminates the phases of the Green's function. It leaves the relative phases of the source time functions, which should be the same across all stations so long as the spatial extent of the sources are small compared with the seismic wavelength. We therefore search for cross-correlation phases that are consistent across stations as an indication of co-located sources. We also introduce a method to obtain relative locations between the two sources, based on back-projection of interstation phase coherence. We apply this technique to analyse two tremor-like signals that are thought to be composed of a number of earthquakes. First, we analyse a 20 s long seismic precursor to a M 3.9 earthquake in central Alaska. The analysis locates the precursor to within 2 km of the mainshock, and it identifies several bursts of energy—potentially foreshocks or groups of foreshocks—within the precursor. Second, we examine several minutes of volcanic tremor prior to an eruption at Redoubt Volcano. We confirm that the tremor source is located close to repeating earthquakes identified earlier in the tremor sequence. The amplitude of the tremor diminishes about 30 s before the eruption, but the phase coherence results suggest that the tremor may persist at some level through this final interval.

Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Identifying quantum phase transitions with adversarial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huembeli, Patrick; Dauphin, Alexandre; Wittek, Peter

2018-04-01

The identification of phases of matter is a challenging task, especially in quantum mechanics, where the complexity of the ground state appears to grow exponentially with the size of the system. Traditionally, physicists have to identify the relevant order parameters for the classification of the different phases. We here follow a radically different approach: we address this problem with a state-of-the-art deep learning technique, adversarial domain adaptation. We derive the phase diagram of the whole parameter space starting from a fixed and known subspace using unsupervised learning. This method has the advantage that the input of the algorithm can be directly the ground state without any ad hoc feature engineering. Furthermore, the dimension of the parameter space is unrestricted. More specifically, the input data set contains both labeled and unlabeled data instances. The first kind is a system that admits an accurate analytical or numerical solution, and one can recover its phase diagram. The second type is the physical system with an unknown phase diagram. Adversarial domain adaptation uses both types of data to create invariant feature extracting layers in a deep learning architecture. Once these layers are trained, we can attach an unsupervised learner to the network to find phase transitions. We show the success of this technique by applying it on several paradigmatic models: the Ising model with different temperatures, the Bose-Hubbard model, and the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model with disorder. The method finds unknown transitions successfully and predicts transition points in close agreement with standard methods. This study opens the door to the classification of physical systems where the phase boundaries are complex such as the many-body localization problem or the Bose glass phase.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: balancing methodological rigor and research ethics.

PubMed

Underhill, Kristen

2013-10-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions - such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines - has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of "risk homeostasis," which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study designs for identifying risk compensation behavior among users of biomedical HIV prevention technologies: Balancing methodological rigor and research ethics

PubMed Central

Underhill, Kristen

2014-01-01

The growing evidence base for biomedical HIV prevention interventions – such as oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, microbicides, male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and eventually prevention vaccines – has given rise to concerns about the ways in which users of these biomedical products may adjust their HIV risk behaviors based on the perception that they are prevented from infection. Known as risk compensation, this behavioral adjustment draws on the theory of “risk homeostasis,” which has previously been applied to phenomena as diverse as Lyme disease vaccination, insurance mandates, and automobile safety. Little rigorous evidence exists to answer risk compensation concerns in the biomedical HIV prevention literature, in part because the field has not systematically evaluated the study designs available for testing these behaviors. The goals of this Commentary are to explain the origins of risk compensation behavior in risk homeostasis theory, to reframe risk compensation as a testable response to the perception of reduced risk, and to assess the methodological rigor and ethical justification of study designs aiming to isolate risk compensation responses. Although the most rigorous methodological designs for assessing risk compensation behavior may be unavailable due to ethical flaws, several strategies can help investigators identify potential risk compensation behavior during Phase II, Phase III, and Phase IV testing of new technologies. Where concerns arise regarding risk compensation behavior, empirical evidence about the incidence, types, and extent of these behavioral changes can illuminate opportunities to better support the users of new HIV prevention strategies. This Commentary concludes by suggesting a new way to conceptualize risk compensation behavior in the HIV prevention context. PMID:23597916

Identifying children at risk for being bullies in the United States.

PubMed

Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

2012-01-01

To identify risk factors associated with the greatest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among U.S. children. Using the 2001-2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally representative survey of U.S. children in 6th-10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (once or twice or more), moderate (two to three times/month or more), and frequent (weekly or more) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5 to 6 days/week were at greatest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, have more than one alcoholic drink per day, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at greatest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at greatest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the greatest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at the greatest risk for bullying and in targeting interventions. Copyright © 2012 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Unpredictable? Identifying High-Risk versus Low-Risk Parents with Intellectual Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

2010-01-01

Objectives: This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates "high-risk"…

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

PubMed

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Identifying nursing home residents at risk for falling.

PubMed

Kiely, D K; Kiel, D P; Burrows, A B; Lipsitz, L A

1998-05-01

To develop a fall risk model that can be used to identify prospectively nursing home residents at risk for falling. The secondary objective was to determine whether the nursing home environment independently influenced the development of falls. A prospective study involving 1 year of follow-up. Two hundred seventy-two nursing homes in the state of Washington. A total of 18,855 residents who had a baseline assessment in 1991 and a follow-up assessment within the subsequent year. Baseline Minimum Data Set items that could be potential risk factors for falling were considered as independent variables. The dependent variable was whether the resident fell as reported at the follow-up assessment. We estimated the extrinsic risk attributable to particular nursing home environments by calculating the annual fall rate in each nursing home and grouping them into tertiles of fall risk according to these rates. Factors associated independently with falling were fall history, wandering behavior, use of a cane or walker, deterioration of activities of daily living performance, age greater than 87 years, unsteady gait, transfer independence, wheelchair independence, and male gender. Nursing home residents with a fall history were more than three times as likely to fall during the follow-up period than residents without a fall history. Residents in homes with the highest tertile of fall rates were more than twice as likely to fall compared with residents of homes in the lowest tertile, independent of resident-specific risk factors. Fall history was identified as the strongest risk factor associated with subsequent falls and accounted for the vast majority of the predictive strength of the model. We recommend that fall history be used as an initial screener for determining eligibility for fall intervention efforts. Studies are needed to determine the facility characteristics that contribute to fall risk, independent of resident-specific risk factors.

Communication about the Risks and Benefits of Phase I Pediatric Oncology Trials

PubMed Central

Hazen, Rebecca A.; Zyzanski, Stephen; Baker, Justin; Drotar, Dennis; Kodish, Eric

2015-01-01

Introduction Phase 1 pediatric oncology trials offer only a small chance of direct benefit and may have significant risks and an impact on quality of life. To date, research has not examined discussions of risks and benefits during informed consent conferences for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. The objective of the current study was to examine clinician and family communication about risks, benefits, and quality of life during informed consent conferences for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. Methods Participants included clinician investigators, parents, and children recruited from 6 sites conducting phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. Eighty-five informed consent conferences were observed and audiotaped. Trained coders assessed discussions of risks, benefits, and quality of life. Types of risks discussed were coded (e.g., unanticipated risks, digestive system risks, death). Types of benefits were categorized as therapeutic (e.g. discussion of how participation may or may not directly benefit child), psychological, bridge to future trial, and altruism. Results Risks and benefits were discussed in 95% and 88% of informed consent conferences, respectively. Therapeutic benefit was the most frequently discussed benefit. The impact of trial participation on quality of life was discussed in the majority (88%) of informed consent conferences. Conclusion Therapeutic benefit, risks, and quality of life were frequently discussed. The range of information discussed during informed consent conferences suggests the need for considering a staged process of informed consent for phase 1 pediatric oncology trials. PMID:25638751

Sources and potential health risk of gas phase PAHs in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China.

PubMed

Mao, Xiaoxuan; Yu, Zhousuo; Ding, Zhongyuan; Huang, Tao; Ma, Jianmin; Zhang, Gan; Li, Jun; Gao, Hong

2016-02-01

Gas phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Hexi Corridor, Northwest China were determined during heating and non-heating seasons, respectively, using passive air samplers. Polyurethane foam (PUF) disks were chosen as the sampling medium. Fifteen PAHs out of the 16 PAHs classified by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) were detected in this field sampling investigation. The atmospheric levels of sampled PAHs were higher at urban sites than that at rural sites among 14 sampling sites and increased during heating season. The highest concentration (11.34 ng m(-3)) was observed in Lanzhou during the heating season, the capital and largest industrial city of Gansu Province. PAH contamination in air was dominated by three aromatic ring congeners. Possible sources of PAHs were apportioned using PAH species ratios and the principle component analysis (PCA) combined with a multiple linear regression (MLR) method. Fossil fuel consumption was identified to be the predominant source of PAHs over Hexi Corridor, accounting for 43 % of the concentration of total (15) PAHs. Backward and forward trajectory and cluster analysis were also carried out to identify potential origins of PAHs monitored at several urban and rural sites. Lung cancer risk of local residents to gas phase PAHs via inhalation exposure throughout the province was found to be around a critical value of the lung cancer risk level at 10(-6) recommended by the U.S. EPA risk assessment guideline.

Food Consumption and Handling Survey for Quantitative Microbiological Consumer Phase Risk Assessments.

PubMed

Chardon, Jurgen; Swart, Arno

2016-07-01

In the consumer phase of a typical quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), mathematical equations identify data gaps. To acquire useful data we designed a food consumption and food handling survey (2,226 respondents) for QMRA applications that is especially aimed at obtaining quantitative data. For a broad spectrum of food products, the survey covered the following topics: processing status at retail, consumer storage, preparation, and consumption. Questions were designed to facilitate distribution fitting. In the statistical analysis, special attention was given to the selection of the most adequate distribution to describe the data. Bootstrap procedures were used to describe uncertainty. The final result was a coherent quantitative consumer phase food survey and parameter estimates for food handling and consumption practices in The Netherlands, including variation over individuals and uncertainty estimates.

Computer-based malnutrition risk calculation may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for unfavorable outcome.

PubMed

Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Daskalou, Efstratia; Lampoudis, Dimitrios; Apostolou, Aggeliki; Agakidis, Charalampos

2015-05-01

The study aimed to test the hypothesis that computer-based calculation of malnutrition risk may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for an unfavorable outcome. The Pediatric Digital Scaled MAlnutrition Risk screening Tool (PeDiSMART), incorporating the World Health Organization (WHO) growth reference data and malnutrition-related parameters, was used. This was a prospective cohort study of 500 pediatric patients aged 1 month to 17 years. Upon admission, the PeDiSMART score was calculated and anthropometry was performed. Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), Screening Tool Risk on Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), and Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP) malnutrition screening tools were also applied. PeDiSMART's association with the clinical outcome measures (weight loss/nutrition support and hospitalization duration) was assessed and compared with the other screening tools. The PeDiSMART score was inversely correlated with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance phase angle (BIA PhA). The score's grading scale was based on BIA Pha quartiles. Weight loss/nutrition support during hospitalization was significantly independently associated with the malnutrition risk group allocation on admission, after controlling for anthropometric parameters and age. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 75% and a significant area under the curve, which differed significantly from that of STRONGkids and STAMP. In the subgroups of patients with PeDiSMART-based risk allocation different from that based on the other tools, PeDiSMART allocation was more closely related to outcome measures. PeDiSMART, applicable to the full age range of patients hospitalized in pediatric departments, graded according to BIA PhA, and embeddable in medical electronic records, enhances efficacy and reproducibility in identifying pediatric patients at

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

PubMed Central

Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

2015-01-01

Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors

Early Risk Reduction Phase 1 FLIR/Laser Designator Window. Revision

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-31

Sandwich-Type FLIR Windows," Air Force AFWAL-TR-83- 4122, Nov 1983. 4-1 Hughes Danbury Optical Systems Final Report, "ATA Window Technology Program," PRBll...Risk Reduction -- Phase I, Optical Properties Measurement Techniques of Three Wide Band Window Materials," 22 August 1991. xii I i 86PR0869 30... Optical Systems, Lexington, MA, 02173, 1 Feb 1991. 5-7 McDonnell Aircraft Company Technical Memorandum TM 256.91.0056.01, "Early Risk Reduction -- Phase

Seeking informed consent to Phase I cancer clinical trials: identifying oncologists' communication strategies.

PubMed

Brown, Richard; Bylund, Carma L; Siminoff, Laura A; Slovin, Susan F

2011-04-01

Phase I clinical trials are the gateway to effective new cancer treatments. Many physicians have difficulty when discussing Phase I clinical trials. Research demonstrates evidence of suboptimal communication. Little is known about communication strategies used by oncologists when recruiting patients for Phase I trials. We analyzed audio recorded Phase I consultations to identify oncologists' communication strategies. Subjects were consecutive cancer patients from six medical oncologists attending one of three outpatient clinics at a major Cancer Center in the United States. Sixteen patients signed informed consent for audio recording of their consultations in which a Phase I study was discussed. These were transcribed in full and analyzed to identify communication strategies. Six communication themes emerged from the analysis: (1) orienting, (2) educating patients, (3) describing uncertainty and prognosis, (4) persuading, (5) decision making, and (6) making a treatment recommendation. As expected, although there was some common ground between communication in Phase I and the Phase II and III settings, there were distinct differences. Oncologists used persuasive communication, made explicit recommendations, or implicitly expressed a treatment preference and were choice limiting. This highlights the complexity of discussing Phase I trials and the need to develop strategies to aid oncologists and patients in these difficult conversations. Patient centered communication that values patient preferences while preserving the oncologist's agenda can be a helpful approach to these discussions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suicide Risk Screening in Healthcare Settings: Identifying Males and Females at Risk

PubMed Central

King, Cheryl A.; Horwitz, Adam; Czyz, Ewa; Lindsay, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, accounting for more than 42,000 deaths in 2014. Although this tragedy cuts across groups defined by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic location, it is striking that nearly four times as many males as females die by suicide in the U.S. We describe the current regulations and recommendations for suicide risk screening in healthcare systems and also describe the aspirational goal of “Zero Suicide,” put forth by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention. We then provide information about suicide risk screening tools and steps to take when a patient screens positive for suicide risk. Given the substantially higher suicide rate among males than females, we argue that it is important to consider how we could optimize suicide risk screening strategies to identify males and females at risk. Further research is needed to accomplish this. It is recommended that we consider multi-factorial suicide risk screens that incorporate risk factors known to be particularly important for males as well computerized, adaptive screens that are tailored for the specific risk considerations of the individual patient, male or female. These strategies are not mutually exclusive. Finally, universal suicide risk screening in healthcare settings, especially primary care, specialty medical care, and emergency department settings, is recommended. PMID:28251427

BCL-2 system analysis identifies high-risk colorectal cancer patients.

PubMed

Lindner, Andreas U; Salvucci, Manuela; Morgan, Clare; Monsefi, Naser; Resler, Alexa J; Cremona, Mattia; Curry, Sarah; Toomey, Sinead; O'Byrne, Robert; Bacon, Orna; Stühler, Michael; Flanagan, Lorna; Wilson, Richard; Johnston, Patrick G; Salto-Tellez, Manuel; Camilleri-Broët, Sophie; McNamara, Deborah A; Kay, Elaine W; Hennessy, Bryan T; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Van Schaeybroeck, Sandra; Prehn, Jochen H M

2017-12-01

The mitochondrial apoptosis pathway is controlled by an interaction of multiple BCL-2 family proteins, and plays a key role in tumour progression and therapy responses. We assessed the prognostic potential of an experimentally validated, mathematical model of BCL-2 protein interactions (DR_MOMP) in patients with stage III colorectal cancer (CRC). Absolute protein levels of BCL-2 family proteins were determined in primary CRC tumours collected from n=128 resected and chemotherapy-treated patients with stage III CRC. We applied DR_MOMP to categorise patients as high or low risk based on model outputs, and compared model outputs with known prognostic factors (T-stage, N-stage, lymphovascular invasion). DR_MOMP signatures were validated on protein of n=156 patients with CRC from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project. High-risk stage III patients identified by DR_MOMP had an approximately fivefold increased risk of death compared with patients identified as low risk (HR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4 to 17.9, p=0.02). The DR_MOMP signature ranked highest among all molecular and pathological features analysed. The prognostic signature was validated in the TCGA colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) cohort (HR 4.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 15.6, p=0.04). DR_MOMP also further stratified patients identified by supervised gene expression risk scores into low-risk and high-risk categories. BCL-2-dependent signalling critically contributed to treatment responses in consensus molecular subtypes 1 and 3, linking for the first time specific molecular subtypes to apoptosis signalling. DR_MOMP delivers a system-based biomarker with significant potential as a prognostic tool for stage III CRC that significantly improves established histopathological risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Informed Consent in Implantable BCI Research: Identifying Risks and Exploring Meaning.

PubMed

Klein, Eran

2016-10-01

Implantable brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is an expanding area of engineering research now moving into clinical application. Ensuring meaningful informed consent in implantable BCI research is an ethical imperative. The emerging and rapidly evolving nature of implantable BCI research makes identification of risks, a critical component of informed consent, a challenge. In this paper, 6 core risk domains relevant to implantable BCI research are identified-short and long term safety, cognitive and communicative impairment, inappropriate expectations, involuntariness, affective impairment, and privacy and security. Work in deep brain stimulation provides a useful starting point for understanding this core set of risks in implantable BCI. Three further risk domains-risks pertaining to identity, agency, and stigma-are identified. These risks are not typically part of formalized consent processes. It is important as informed consent practices are further developed for implantable BCI research that attention be paid not just to disclosing core research risks but exploring the meaning of BCI research with potential participants.

Technical Overview of Ecological Risk Assessment - Analysis Phase: Exposure Characterization

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure Characterization is the second major component of the analysis phase of a risk assessment. For a pesticide risk assessment, the exposure characterization describes the potential or actual contact of a pesticide with a plant, animal, or media.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

A new methodology to identify surface water bodies at risk by using pesticide monitoring data: The glyphosate case study in Lombardy Region (Italy).

PubMed

Di Guardo, Andrea; Finizio, Antonio

2018-01-01

In the last decades, several monitoring programs were established as an effect of EU Directives addressing the quality of water resources (drinking water, groundwater and surface water). Plant Protection Products (PPPs) are an obvious target of monitoring activities, since they are directly released into the environment. One of the challenges in managing the risk of pesticides at the territorial scale is identifying the locations in water bodies needing implementation of risk mitigation measures. In this, the national pesticides monitoring plans could be very helpful. However, monitoring of pesticides is a challenging task because of the high number of registered pesticides, cost of analyses, and the periodicity of sampling related to pesticide application and use. Extensive high-quality data-sets are consequently often missing. More in general, the information that can be obtained from monitoring studies are frequently undervalued by risk managers. In this study, we propose a new methodology providing indications about the need to implement mitigation measures in stretches of surface water bodies on a territory by combining historical series of monitoring data and GIS. The methodology is articulated in two distinct phases: a) acquisition of monitoring data and setting-up of informative layers of georeferenced data (phase 1) and b) statistical and expert analysis for the identification of areas where implementation of limitation or mitigation measures are suggested (phase 2). Our methodology identifies potentially vulnerable water bodies, considering temporal contamination trends and relative risk levels at selected monitoring stations. A case study is presented considering glyphosate monitoring data in Lombardy Region (Northern of Italy) for the 2008-2014 period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying Home Care Clinicians’ Information Needs for Managing Fall Risks

PubMed Central

Alhuwail, Dari

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives To help manage the risk of falls in home care, this study aimed to (i) identify home care clinicians’ information needs and how they manage missing or inaccurate data, (ii) identify problems that impact effectiveness and efficiency associated with retaining, exchanging, or processing information about fall risks in existing workflows and currently adopted health information technology (IT) solutions, and (iii) offer informatics-based recommendations to improve fall risk management interventions. Methods A case study was carried out in a single not-for-profit suburban Medicare-certified home health agency with three branches. Qualitative data were collected over a six month period through observations, semi-structured interviews, and focus groups. The Framework method was used for analysis. Maximum variation sampling was adopted to recruit a diverse sample of clinicians. Results Overall, the information needs for fall risk management were categorized into physiological, care delivery, educational, social, environmental, and administrative domains. Examples include a brief fall-related patient history, weight-bearing status, medications that affect balance, availability of caregivers at home, and the influence of patients’ cultures on fall management interventions. The unavailability and inaccuracy of critical information related to fall risks can delay necessary therapeutic services aimed at reducing patients’ risk for falling and thereby jeopardizing their safety. Currently adopted IT solutions did not adequately accommodate data related to fall risk management. Conclusion The results highlight the essential information for fall risk management in home care. Home care workflows and health IT solutions must effectively and efficiently retain, exchange, and process information necessary for fall risk management. Interoperability and integration of the various health IT solutions to make data sharing accessible to all clinicians is critical

Are phase 1 trials therapeutic? Risk, ethics, and division of labor.

PubMed

Anderson, James A; Kimmelman, Jonathan

2014-03-01

Despite their crucial role in the translation of pre-clinical research into new clinical applications, phase 1 trials involving patients continue to prompt ethical debate. At the heart of the controversy is the question of whether risks of administering experimental drugs are therapeutically justified. We suggest that prior attempts to address this question have been muddled, in part because it cannot be answered adequately without first attending to the way labor is divided in managing risk in clinical trials. In what follows, we approach the question of therapeutic justification for phase 1 trials from the viewpoint of five different stakeholders: the drug regulatory authority, the IRB, the clinical investigator, the referring physician, and the patient. Our analysis shows that the question of therapeutic justification actually raises multiple questions corresponding to the roles and responsibilities of the different stakeholders involved. By attending to these contextual differences, we provide more coherent guidance for the ethical negotiation of risk in phase 1 trials involving patients. We close by discussing the implications of our argument for various perennial controversies in phase 1 trial practice. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Incidence of neonatal hypoglycemia in babies identified as at risk.

PubMed

Harris, Deborah L; Weston, Philip J; Harding, Jane E

2012-11-01

Routine blood glucose screening is recommended for babies at risk of neonatal hypoglycemia. However, the incidence of hypoglycemia in those screened is not well described. We sought to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia in babies identified as being at risk, and also to determine differences in incidence between at risk groups. Infants (n = 514) were recruited who were born in a tertiary hospital, ≥35 weeks gestation and identified as at risk of hypoglycemia (small, large, infant of a diabetic, late-preterm, and other). Blood glucose screening used a standard protocol and a glucose oxidase method of glucose measurement in the first 48 hours after birth. One-half of the babies (260/514, 51%) became hypoglycemic (<2.6 mM), 97 (19%) had severe hypoglycemia (≤2.0 mM), and 98 (19%) had more than 1 episode. The mean duration of an episode was 1.4 hours. Most episodes (315/390, 81%) occurred in the first 24 hours. The median number of blood glucose measurements for each baby was 9 (range 1-22). The incidence and timing of hypoglycemia was similar in all at risk groups, but babies with a total of 3 risk factors were more likely to have severe hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is common amongst babies recommended for routine blood glucose screening. We found no evidence that screening protocols should differ in different at risk groups, but multiple risk factors may increase severity. The significance of these hypoglycemic episodes for long-term outcome remains undetermined. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

PubMed

Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

2017-05-01

Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Waste area grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Ecological risk assessment and White Oak Creek watershed screening ecological risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, R.A.; Jackson, B.L.; Jones, D.S.

1996-05-01

This report presents an ecological risk assessment for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 based on the data collected in the Phase I remedial investigation (RI). It serves as an update to the WAG 2 screening ecological risk assessment that was performed using historic data. In addition to identifying potential ecological risks in WAG 2 that may require additional data collection, this report serves to determine whether there are ecological risks of sufficient magnitude to require a removal action or some other expedited remedial process. WAG 2 consists of White Oak Creek (WOC) and its tributaries downstream of the Oak Ridgemore » National Laboratory (ORNL) main plant area, White Oak Lake (WOL), the White Oak Creek Embayment of the Clinch River, associated flood plains, and the associated groundwater. The WOC system drains the WOC watershed, an area of approximately 16.8 km{sup 2} that includes ORNL and associated WAGs. The WOC system has been exposed to contaminants released from ORNL and associated operations since 1943 and continues to receive contaminants from adjacent WAGs.« less

[Identifying children at risk for cardiorespiratory arrest].

PubMed

Carrillo Alvarez, A; Martínez Gutiérrez, A; Salvat Germán, F

2004-08-01

Cardiorespiratory arrest in children with severe disease does not usually present suddenly or unexpectedly but is often the result of a progressive deterioration of respiratory and/or circulatory function. Before failure of these functions occurs, there is a series of clinical signs that serve as a warning. Health professionals should not only evaluate clinical signs of respiratory and/or circulatory insufficiency but should also be able to identify these warning signs as early as possible, preferably in the compensation phase, given that the possibility that this process can be reversed by therapeutic measures decreases as the process progresses.

In Search of Black Swans: Identifying Students at Risk of Failing Licensing Examinations.

PubMed

Barber, Cassandra; Hammond, Robert; Gula, Lorne; Tithecott, Gary; Chahine, Saad

2018-03-01

To determine which admissions variables and curricular outcomes are predictive of being at risk of failing the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part 1 (MCCQE1), how quickly student risk of failure can be predicted, and to what extent predictive modeling is possible and accurate in estimating future student risk. Data from five graduating cohorts (2011-2015), Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, were collected and analyzed using hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models and determine whether they could be used to predict future risk, using the 2016 graduating cohort. Four predictive models were developed to predict student risk of failure at admissions, year 1, year 2, and pre-MCCQE1. The HGLM analyses identified gender, MCAT verbal reasoning score, two preclerkship course mean grades, and the year 4 summative objective structured clinical examination score as significant predictors of student risk. The predictive accuracy of the models varied. The pre-MCCQE1 model was the most accurate at predicting a student's risk of failing (AUC 0.66-0.93), while the admissions model was not predictive (AUC 0.25-0.47). Key variables predictive of students at risk were found. The predictive models developed suggest, while it is not possible to identify student risk at admission, we can begin to identify and monitor students within the first year. Using such models, programs may be able to identify and monitor students at risk quantitatively and develop tailored intervention strategies.

Evaluation of an inpatient fall risk screening tool to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients.

PubMed

Hou, Wen-Hsuan; Kang, Chun-Mei; Ho, Mu-Hsing; Kuo, Jessie Ming-Chuan; Chen, Hsiao-Lien; Chang, Wen-Yin

2017-03-01

To evaluate the accuracy of the inpatient fall risk screening tool and to identify the most critical fall risk factors in inpatients. Variations exist in several screening tools applied in acute care hospitals for examining risk factors for falls and identifying high-risk inpatients. Secondary data analysis. A subset of inpatient data for the period from June 2011-June 2014 was extracted from the nursing information system and adverse event reporting system of an 818-bed teaching medical centre in Taipei. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 205 fallers and 37,232 nonfallers were identified. The results revealed that the inpatient fall risk screening tool (cut-off point of ≥3) had a low sensitivity level (60%), satisfactory specificity (87%), a positive predictive value of 2·0% and a negative predictive value of 99%. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0·805 (sensitivity, 71·8%; specificity, 78%). To increase the sensitivity values, the Youden index suggests at least 1·5 points to be the most suitable cut-off point for the inpatient fall risk screening tool. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed a considerably increased fall risk in patients with impaired balance and impaired elimination. The fall risk factor was also significantly associated with days of hospital stay and with admission to surgical wards. The findings can raise awareness about the two most critical risk factors for falls among future clinical nurses and other healthcare professionals and thus facilitate the development of fall prevention interventions. This study highlights the needs for redefining the cut-off points of the inpatient fall risk screening tool to effectively identify inpatients at a high risk of falls. Furthermore, inpatients with impaired balance and impaired elimination should be closely

Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

PubMed

Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

2010-08-01

Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

Can subsyndromal manifestations of major depression be identified in children at risk?

PubMed

Uchida, M; Fitzgerald, M; Lin, K; Carrellas, N; Woodworth, H; Biederman, J

2017-02-01

Children of parents with major depression are at significantly increased risk for developing major depression themselves; however, not all children at genetic risk will develop major depressive disorder (MDD). We investigated the utility of subsyndromal scores on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Anxiety/Depression scale in identifying children at the highest risk for pediatric MDD from among the pool of children of parents with MDD or bipolar disorder. The sample was derived from two previously conducted longitudinal case-control family studies of psychiatrically and pediatrically referred youth and their families. For this study, probands were stratified based on the presence or absence of a parental mood disorder. Subsyndromal scores on the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale significantly separated the children at high risk for pediatric MDD from those at low risk in a variety of functional areas, including social and academic functioning. Additionally, children at genetic risk without elevated CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale scores were largely indistinguishable from controls. These results suggest that the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale can help identify children at highest risk for pediatric MDD. If implemented clinically, this scale would cost-effectively screen children and identify those most in need of early intervention resources to impede the progression of depression. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The MAT-sf: identifying risk for major mobility disability.

PubMed

Rejeski, W Jack; Rushing, Julia; Guralnik, Jack M; Ip, Edward H; King, Abby C; Manini, Todd M; Marsh, Anthony P; McDermott, Mary M; Fielding, Roger A; Newman, Anne B; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Gill, Thomas M

2015-05-01

The assessment of mobility is essential to both aging research and clinical geriatric practice. A newly developed self-report measure of mobility, the mobility assessment tool-short form (MAT-sf), uses video animations as an innovative method to improve measurement accuracy/precision. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate whether MAT-sf scores can be used to identify risk for major mobility disability (MMD). This article is based on data collected from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders study and involved 1,574 older adults between the ages of 70-89. The MAT-sf was administered at baseline; MMD, operationalized as failure to complete the 400-m walk ≤ 15 minutes, was evaluated at 6-month intervals across a period of 42 months. The outcome of interest was the first occurrence of MMD or incident MMD. After controlling for age, sex, clinic site, and treatment arm, baseline MAT-sf scores were found to be effective in identifying risk for MMD (p < .0001). Partitioning the MAT-sf into four groups revealed that persons with scores <40, 40-49, 50-59, and 60+ had failure rates across 42 months of follow-up of 66%, 52%, 35%, and 22%, respectively. The MAT-sf is a quick and efficient way of identifying older adults at risk for MMD. It could be used to clinically identify older adults that are in need of intervention for MMD and provides a simple means for monitoring the status of patients' mobility, an important dimension of functional health. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Fe-Bearing Phases Identified by the Moessbauer Spectrometers on the Mars Exploration Rovers: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, R. V.; Klingelhoefer, G.; Rodionov, D.; Yen, A.; Gellert, R.

2006-01-01

The twin Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity have explored the martian surface at Gusev Crater (GC) and Meridiani Planum (MP), respectively, for about two Earth years. The Moessbauer (MB) spectrometers on both rovers have analyzed an aggregate of 200 surface targets and have returned to Earth information on the oxidation state of iron, the mineralogical composition of Febearing phases, and the distribution of Fe among oxidation states and phases at the two landing sites [1-7]. To date, 15 component subspectra (10 doublets and 5 sextets) have been identified and most have been assigned to mineralogical compositions. Two subspectra are assigned to phases (jarosite and goethite) that are marker minerals for aqueous processes because they contain hydroxide anion in their structures. In this paper, we give an overview of the Febearing phases identified and their distributions at Gusev crater and Meridiani Planum.

Identifying environmental risk factors and mapping the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, A.; Davis, J. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

Human West Nile virus (WNV) first arrived in the USA in 1999 and has since then spread across the country. Today, the highest incidence rates are found in the state of South Dakota. The disease occurrence depends on the complex interaction between the mosquito vector, the bird host and the dead-end human host. Understanding the spatial domain of this interaction and being able to identify disease transmission hotspots is crucial for effective disease prevention and mosquito control. In this study we use geospatial environmental information to understand what drives the spatial distribution of cases of human West Nile virus in South Dakota and to map relative infection risk across the state. To map the risk of human West Nile virus in South Dakota, we used geocoded human case data from the years 2004-2016. Satellite data from the Landsat ETM+ and MODIS for the years 2003 to 2016 were used to characterize environmental patterns. From these datasets we calculated indices, such as the normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalized differenced water index (NDWI). In addition, datasets such as the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD), National Wetland inventory (NWI), National Elevation Dataset (NED) and Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) were utilized. Environmental variables were summarized for a buffer zone around the case and control points. We used a boosted regression tree model to identify the most important variables describing the risk of WNV infection. We generated a risk map by applying this model across the entire state. We found that the highest relative risk is present in the James River valley in northeastern South Dakota. Factors that were identified as influencing the transmission risk include inter-annual variability of vegetation cover, water availability and temperature. Land covers such as grasslands, low developed areas and wetlands were also found to be good predictors for human

Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

Identifying children at risk for type 2 diabetes in underserved communities.

PubMed

Vivian, Eva M; Carrel, Aaron L; Becker, Tara

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and assess health behaviors among ethnic minority children at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes screenings were conducted at community centers, churches, and local neighborhood health fairs in Madison, Wisconsin. During these events, diabetes risk assessment surveys were given to parents of children between the ages of 10 to 19 years. Parents who identified their children as having 2 or more risk factors for type 2 diabetes were invited to have their child screened for type 2 diabetes. A total of 86 children between the ages of 10 to 19 years (mean age = 13; 58% male) were screened for diabetes. Fifty-one percent of the children were overweight or obese with 38% having >3 risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there was no significant difference in the nutritional habits reported between normal, overweight, or obese children, fewer overweight and obese children reported exercising at least 30 minutes 5 to 7 days a week compared to children with a normal weight (P = .033). Prevention of diabetes is a powerful public health intervention. Targeted diabetes screening in disadvantaged, underserved communities is an effective way to identify families with children at risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, information obtained from these screenings can assist researchers and clinicians in designing accessible and affordable health promotion interventions that are culturally relevant to the youth and families within the community.

Chromosome 17 alterations identify good-risk and poor-risk tumors independently of clinical factors in medulloblastoma

PubMed Central

McCabe, Martin G.; Bäcklund, L. Magnus; Leong, Hui Sun; Ichimura, Koichi; Collins, V. Peter

2011-01-01

Current risk stratification schemas for medulloblastoma, based on combinations of clinical variables and histotype, fail to accurately identify particularly good- and poor-risk tumors. Attempts have been made to improve discriminatory power by combining clinical variables with cytogenetic data. We report here a pooled analysis of all previous reports of chromosomal copy number related to survival data in medulloblastoma. We collated data from previous reports that explicitly quoted survival data and chromosomal copy number in medulloblastoma. We analyzed the relative prognostic significance of currently used clinical risk stratifiers and the chromosomal aberrations previously reported to correlate with survival. In the pooled dataset metastatic disease, incomplete tumor resection and severe anaplasia were associated with poor outcome, while young age at presentation was not prognostically significant. Of the chromosomal variables studied, isolated 17p loss and gain of 1q correlated with poor survival. Gain of 17q without associated loss of 17p showed a trend to improved outcome. The most commonly reported alteration, isodicentric chromosome 17, was not prognostically significant. Sequential multivariate models identified isolated 17p loss, isolated 17q gain, and 1q gain as independent prognostic factors. In a historical dataset, we have identified isolated 17p loss as a marker of poor outcome and 17q gain as a novel putative marker of good prognosis. Biological markers of poor-risk and good-risk tumors will be critical in stratifying treatment in future trials. Our findings should be prospectively validated independently in future clinical studies. PMID:21292688

Risk assessment of soils identified on firefighter turnout gear.

PubMed

Easter, Elizabeth; Lander, Deborah; Huston, Tabitha

2016-09-01

The purpose of this research was to identify the composition of soils on firefighter turnout gear and to determine the dermal exposure risks associated with the soils. Nine used Nomex hoods from the Philadelphia fire department were analyzed for the presence of trace metals and seven sets of used turnout gear were analyzed for semi-volatile organics. Turnout gear samples were removed from areas of the gear known to have high levels of dermal absorption including the collar, armpit, wrist, and crotch areas, from either the outer shell or thermal liner layers. The following compounds were detected: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), phthalate plasticizers, and polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants (PBDEs). A screening risk assessment was conducted by converting the measured concentrations to an estimated dermally absorbed dose based on estimates for the permeation coefficient (Kp) and an assumed firefighting exposure scenario. Benzo(a) pyrene had the highest dermal exposure risk based on carcinogenic effects and PBDE-99 had the highest dermal exposure risk based on non-carcinogenic effects. For the metals, arsenic had the highest dermal exposure risk for the use hoods.

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Ecological risk assessment for Mather Air Force Base, California: Phase 1, screening assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyers-Schoene, L.; Fischer, N.T.; Rabe, J.J.

Mather Air Force Base (AFB) is among the numerous facilities scheduled for closure under the US Air Force (USAF) Installation Restoration Program (IRP). A component of the Mather AFB IRP is to prepare risk assessments for each of the chemically contaminated sites. Because no previous ecological risk related studies have been conducted on Mather AFB, the authors proposed a phased approach to assessing ecological risks at the base. Phase 1 consisted of baseline ecological surveys that collected data over a 12-month period. In addition, benchmark screening criteria were used in conjunction with modeling results that utilized measured concentrations of chemicalmore » analytes in abiotic samples. Phase 2 may consist of the collection of more site-specific data and toxicity testing, if warranted by the Phase 1 screening analysis. This approach was in agreement with the USAF`s ecological risk assessment guidance and met the approval of the Air Force and USEPA Region 9. The authors found the use of established and derived screening values to effectively aid in the focusing of the ecological risk assessment on those chemicals most likely to be hazardous to ecological receptors at the base. Disadvantages in the use of screening values include the uncertainties associated with the conservative assumptions inherent in the derivation of benchmark values and the difficulty in extrapolating from laboratory determined benchmark values to impacts in the field.« less

Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery

PubMed Central

Bengtson, Angela M.; Kopp, Dawn; Tang, Jennifer H.; Chipungu, Ennet; Moyo, Margaret; Wilkinson, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Objective To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, HIV status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh Classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut-point were assessed. Results Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut-point of 20 had sensitivity 82% (95% CI 72%, 89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57%, 69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut-point of _20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36%, 51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86%, 94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score ≥20 and therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. Conclusions A risk score 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence, with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more

Body mass index cut-points to identify cardiometabolic risk in black South Africans.

PubMed

Kruger, H Salome; Schutte, Aletta E; Walsh, Corinna M; Kruger, Annamarie; Rennie, Kirsten L

2017-02-01

To determine optimal body mass index (BMI) cut-points for the identification of cardiometabolic risk in black South African adults. We performed a cross-sectional study of a weighted sample of healthy black South Africans aged 25-65 years (721 men, 1386 women) from the North West and Free State Provinces. Demographic, lifestyle and anthropometric measures were taken, and blood pressure, fasting serum triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. We defined elevated cardiometabolic risk as having three or more risk factors according to international metabolic syndrome criteria. Receiver operating characteristic curves were applied to identify an optimal BMI cut-point for men and women. BMI had good diagnostic performance to identify clustering of three or more risk factors, as well as individual risk factors: low HDL-cholesterol, elevated fasting glucose and triglycerides, with areas under the curve >.6, but not for high blood pressure. Optimal BMI cut-points averaged 22 kg/m 2 for men and 28 kg/m 2 for women, respectively, with better sensitivity in men (44.0-71.9 %), and in women (60.6-69.8 %), compared to a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 (17-19.1, 53-61.4 %, respectively). Men and women with a BMI >22 and >28 kg/m 2 , respectively, had significantly increased probability of elevated cardiometabolic risk after adjustment for age, alcohol use and smoking. In black South African men, a BMI cut-point of 22 kg/m 2 identifies those at cardiometabolic risk, whereas a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 underestimates risk. In women, a cut-point of 28 kg/m 2 , approaching the WHO obesity cut-point, identifies those at risk.

Identifying high-risk areas for sporadic measles outbreaks: lessons from South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Cohen, C; Chirwa, T; Ntshoe, G; Puren, A; Hofman, K

2013-03-01

To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011. Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012. A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken. The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

A Serological Biopsy Using Five Stomach-Specific Circulating Biomarkers for Gastric Cancer Risk Assessment: A Multi-Phase Study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Sun, Liping; Dong, Xiao; Gong, Yuehua; Xu, Qian; Jing, Jingjing; Bostick, Roberd M; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Yuan

2017-05-01

We aimed to assess a serological biopsy using five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers-pepsinogen I (PGI), PGII, PGI/II ratio, anti-Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibody, and gastrin-17 (G-17)-for identifying high-risk individuals and predicting risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). Among 12,112 participants with prospective follow-up from an ongoing population-based screening program using both serology and gastroscopy in China, we conducted a multi-phase study involving a cross-sectional analysis, a follow-up analysis, and an integrative risk prediction modeling analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, the five biomarkers (especially PGII, the PGI/II ratio, and H. pylori sero-positivity) were associated with the presence of precancerous gastric lesions or GC at enrollment. In the follow-up analysis, low PGI levels and PGI/II ratios were associated with higher risk of developing GC, and both low (<0.5 pmol/l) and high (>4.7 pmol/l) G-17 levels were associated with higher risk of developing GC, suggesting a J-shaped association. In the risk prediction modeling analysis, the five biomarkers combined yielded a C statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.789-0.816) and improved prediction beyond traditional risk factors (C statistic from 0.580 to 0.811, P<0.001) for identifying precancerous lesions at enrollment, and higher serological biopsy scores based on the five biomarkers at enrollment were associated with higher risk of developing GC during follow-up (P for trend <0.001). A serological biopsy composed of the five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers could be used to identify high-risk individuals for further diagnostic gastroscopy, and to stratify individuals' risk of developing GC and thus to guide targeted screening and precision prevention.

Quantitative phase-digital holographic microscopy: a new imaging modality to identify original cellular biomarkers of diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquet, P.; Rothenfusser, K.; Rappaz, B.; Depeursinge, C.; Jourdain, P.; Magistretti, P. J.

2016-03-01

Quantitative phase microscopy (QPM) has recently emerged as a powerful label-free technique in the field of living cell imaging allowing to non-invasively measure with a nanometric axial sensitivity cell structure and dynamics. Since the phase retardation of a light wave when transmitted through the observed cells, namely the quantitative phase signal (QPS), is sensitive to both cellular thickness and intracellular refractive index related to the cellular content, its accurate analysis allows to derive various cell parameters and monitor specific cell processes, which are very likely to identify new cell biomarkers. Specifically, quantitative phase-digital holographic microscopy (QP-DHM), thanks to its numerical flexibility facilitating parallelization and automation processes, represents an appealing imaging modality to both identify original cellular biomarkers of diseases as well to explore the underlying pathophysiological processes.

Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15May2012 - 31Aug2016 Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment...deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison groups of civilain single parent families (N=200) and civilian dual parent

Dietary screening tool identifies nutritional risk in older adults123

PubMed Central

Miller, Paige E; Mitchell, Diane C; Hartman, Terryl J; Lawrence, Frank R; Sempos, Christopher T; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen

2009-01-01

Background: No rapid methods exist for screening overall dietary intakes in older adults. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a scoring system for a diet screening tool to identify nutritional risk in community-dwelling older adults. Design: This cross-sectional study in older adults (n = 204) who reside in rural areas examined nutrition status by using an in-person interview, biochemical measures, and four 24-h recalls that included the use of dietary supplements. Results: The dietary screening tool was able to characterize 3 levels of nutritional risk: at risk, possible risk, and not at risk. Individuals classified as at nutritional risk had significantly lower indicators of diet quality (Healthy Eating Index and Mean Adequacy Ratio) and intakes of protein, most micronutrients, dietary fiber, fruit, and vegetables. The at-risk group had higher intakes of fats and oils and refined grains. The at-risk group also had the lowest serum vitamin B-12, folate, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, and zeaxanthin concentrations. The not-at-nutritional-risk group had significantly higher lycopene and β-carotene and lower homocysteine and methylmalonic acid concentrations. Conclusion: The dietary screening tool is a simple and practical tool that can help to detect nutritional risk in older adults. PMID:19458013

Grades and Graduation: A Longitudinal Risk Perspective to Identify Student Dropouts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowers, Alex J.

2010-01-01

Studies of student risk of school dropout have shown that present predictors of at-risk status do not accurately identify a large percentage of students who eventually drop out. Through the analysis of the entire Grade 1-12 longitudinal cohort-based grading histories of the class of 2006 for two school districts in the United States, the author…

Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

1992-08-01

Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

Kinome expression profiling of human neuroblastoma tumors identifies potential drug targets for ultra high-risk patients.

PubMed

Russo, Roberta; Cimmino, Flora; Pezone, Lucia; Manna, Francesco; Avitabile, Marianna; Langella, Concetta; Koster, Jan; Casale, Fiorina; Raia, Maddalena; Viola, Giampietro; Fischer, Matthias; Iolascon, Achille; Capasso, Mario

2017-10-01

Neuroblastoma (NBL) accounts for >7% of malignancies in patients younger than 15 years. Low- and intermediate-risk patients exhibit excellent or good prognosis after treatment, whereas for high-risk (HR) patients, the estimated 5-year survival rates is still <40%. The ability to stratify HR patients that will not respond to standard treatment strategies is critical for informed treatment decisions. In this study, we have generated a specific kinome gene signature, named Kinome-27, which is able to identify a subset of HR-NBL tumors, named ultra-HR NBL, with highly aggressive clinical behavior that not adequately respond to standard treatments. We have demonstrated that NBL cell lines expressing the same kinome signature of ultra-HR tumors (ultra-HR-like cell lines) may be selectively targeted by the use of two drugs [suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA) and Radicicol], and that the synergic combination of these drugs is able to block the ultra-HR-like cells in G2/M phase of cell cycle. The use of our signature in clinical practice will allow identifying patients with negative outcome, which would benefit from new and more personalized treatments. Preclinical in vivo studies are needed to consolidate the SAHA and Radicicol treatment in ultra-HR NBL patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identifying Military and Combat Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk Military Families and Civilian Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Award Number: W81XWH-12-2-0034 TITLE: Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child Adjustment: Comparing High and Low Risk...2. REPORT TYPE Annual 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 15 May - 2013 - 14 May 2014. Identifying Military and Combat-Specific Risk Factors for Child ...parents (N=200) whose spouse/partner is currently in a “low perceived risk” deployment and has a child between the age of 3 and 7 and comparison

Identifying Adolescents at Highly Elevated Risk for Suicidal Behavior in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Berona, Johnny; Czyz, Ewa; Horwitz, Adam G.; Gipson, Polly Y.

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective: The feasibility and concurrent validity of adolescent suicide risk screening in medical emergency departments (EDs) has been documented. The objectives of this short-term prospective study of adolescents who screened positive for suicide risk in the ED were: 1) to examine adolescents' rate of suicidal behavior during the 2 months following their ED visits and compare it with reported rates for psychiatric samples; and 2) to identify possible predictors of acute risk for suicidal behavior in this at-risk sample. Method: Participants were 81 adolescents, ages 14–19 years, seeking services for psychiatric and nonpsychiatric chief complaints, who screened positive for suicide risk because of recent suicidal ideation, a suicide attempt, and/or depression plus alcohol or substance misuse. A comprehensive assessment of suicidal behavior, using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, was conducted at baseline and 2 month follow-up. Results: Six adolescents (7.4%) reported a suicide attempt and 15 (18.5%) engaged in some type of suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, or interrupted suicide attempt; preparatory behavior) during the 2 months following their ED visit. These rates suggest that this screen identified a high-risk sample. Furthermore, adolescents who screened positive for suicidal ideation and/or attempt plus depression and alcohol/substance misuse were most likely to engage in future suicidal behavior (38.9%). Conclusions: In this study, use of a higher screen threshold (multiple suicide risk factors) showed promise for identifying highly elevated acute risk for suicidal behavior. PMID:25746114

The more from East-Asian, the better: risk prediction of colorectal cancer risk by GWAS-identified SNPs among Japanese.

PubMed

Abe, Makiko; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Nomura, Masatoshi; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Matsuo, Keitaro

2017-12-01

Little is known about the difference of genetic predisposition for CRC between ethnicities; however, many genetic traits common to colorectal cancer have been identified. This study investigated whether more SNPs identified in GWAS in East Asian population could improve the risk prediction of Japanese and explored possible application of genetic risk groups as an instrument of the risk communication. 558 Patients histologically verified colorectal cancer and 1116 first-visit outpatients were included for derivation study, and 547 cases and 547 controls were for replication study. Among each population, we evaluated prediction models for the risk of CRC that combined the genetic risk group based on SNPs from GWASs in European-population and a similarly developed model adding SNPs from GWASs in East Asian-population. We examined whether adding East Asian-specific SNPs would improve the discrimination. Six SNPs (rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10936599, rs16969681) from 23 SNPs by European-based GWAS and five SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279) among ten SNPs by Asian-based GWAS were selected in CRC risk prediction model. Compared with a 6-SNP-based model, an 11-SNP model including Asian GWAS-SNPs showed improved discrimination capacity in Receiver operator characteristic analysis. A model with 11 SNPs resulted in statistically significant improvement in both derivation (P = 0.0039) and replication studies (P = 0.0018) compared with six SNP model. We estimated cumulative risk of CRC by using genetic risk group based on 11 SNPs and found that the cumulative risk at age 80 is approximately 13% in the high-risk group while 6% in the low-risk group. We constructed a more efficient CRC risk prediction model with 11 SNPs including newly identified East Asian-based GWAS SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279). Risk grouping based on 11 SNPs depicted lifetime difference of CRC risk. This might be useful for

Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

PubMed

Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of a Risk Screener in Identifying Hepatitis C Virus in a Primary Care Setting

PubMed Central

Litwin, Alain H.; Smith, Bryce D.; Koppelman, Elisa A.; McKee, M. Diane; Christiansen, Cindy L.; Gifford, Allen L.; Weinbaum, Cindy M.; Southern, William N.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We evaluated an intervention designed to identify patients at risk for hepatitis C virus (HCV) through a risk screener used by primary care providers. Methods. A clinical reminder sticker prompted physicians at 3 urban clinics to screen patients for 12 risk factors and order HCV testing if any risks were present. Risk factor data were collected from the sticker; demographic and testing data were extracted from electronic medical records. We used the t test, χ2 test, and rank-sum test to compare patients who had and had not been screened and developed an analytic model to identify the incremental value of each element of the screener. Results. Among screened patients, 27.8% (n = 902) were identified as having at least 1 risk factor. Of screened patients with risk factors, 55.4% (n = 500) were tested for HCV. Our analysis showed that 7 elements (injection drug use, intranasal drug use, elevated alanine aminotransferase, transfusions before 1992, ≥ 20 lifetime sex partners, maternal HCV, existing liver disease) accounted for all HCV infections identified. Conclusions. A brief risk screener with a paper-based clinical reminder was effective in increasing HCV testing in a primary care setting. PMID:22994166

Root Source Analysis/ValuStream[Trade Mark] - A Methodology for Identifying and Managing Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Richard Lee

2008-01-01

Root Source Analysis (RoSA) is a systems engineering methodology that has been developed at NASA over the past five years. It is designed to reduce costs, schedule, and technical risks by systematically examining critical assumptions and the state of the knowledge needed to bring to fruition the products that satisfy mission-driven requirements, as defined for each element of the Work (or Product) Breakdown Structure (WBS or PBS). This methodology is sometimes referred to as the ValuStream method, as inherent in the process is the linking and prioritizing of uncertainties arising from knowledge shortfalls directly to the customer's mission driven requirements. RoSA and ValuStream are synonymous terms. RoSA is not simply an alternate or improved method for identifying risks. It represents a paradigm shift. The emphasis is placed on identifying very specific knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are the root sources of the risk (the why), rather than on assessing the WBS product(s) themselves (the what). In so doing RoSA looks forward to anticipate, identify, and prioritize knowledge shortfalls and assumptions that are likely to create significant uncertainties/ risks (as compared to Root Cause Analysis, which is most often used to look back to discover what was not known, or was assumed, that caused the failure). Experience indicates that RoSA, with its primary focus on assumptions and the state of the underlying knowledge needed to define, design, build, verify, and operate the products, can identify critical risks that historically have been missed by the usual approaches (i.e., design review process and classical risk identification methods). Further, the methodology answers four critical questions for decision makers and risk managers: 1. What s been included? 2. What's been left out? 3. How has it been validated? 4. Has the real source of the uncertainty/ risk been identified, i.e., is the perceived problem the real problem? Users of the RoSA methodology

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci.

PubMed

Michailidou, Kyriaki; Lindström, Sara; Dennis, Joe; Beesley, Jonathan; Hui, Shirley; Kar, Siddhartha; Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D; Qing Chen, Xiao; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason S; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Bojesen, Stig E; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D; Castelao, Jose E; Chan, Tsun L; David Cheng, Ting-Yuan; Seng Chia, Kee; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Cunningham, Julie M; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F; Dörk, Thilo; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M; Ekici, Arif B; Eliassen, A Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M; García-Sáenz, José A; Gaudet, Mia M; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S; Goldgar, David E; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J; Hoover, Robert N; Hopper, John L; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Neng Lee, Chuen; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P; Ma, Edmond S K; MacInnis, Robert J; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Olson, Janet E; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V Shane; Park, Sue K; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I A; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofyeva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J T; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J; Schmidt, Daniel F; Schmutzler, Rita K; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E; Shrubsole, Martha J; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C; Spinelli, John J; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H; Beth Terry, Mary; Tessier, Daniel C; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R; Har Yip, Cheng; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R; Antoniou, Antonis C; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L; Amos, Christopher I; Couch, Fergus J; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J; Milne, Roger L; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Chanock, Stephen J; Dunning, Alison M; Edwards, Stacey L; Bader, Gary D; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F

2017-11-02

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10 -8 . The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

Deep Learning Identifies High-z Galaxies in a Central Blue Nugget Phase in a Characteristic Mass Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huertas-Company, M.; Primack, J. R.; Dekel, A.; Koo, D. C.; Lapiner, S.; Ceverino, D.; Simons, R. C.; Snyder, G. F.; Bernardi, M.; Chen, Z.; Domínguez-Sánchez, H.; Lee, C. T.; Margalef-Bentabol, B.; Tuccillo, D.

2018-05-01

We use machine learning to identify in color images of high-redshift galaxies an astrophysical phenomenon predicted by cosmological simulations. This phenomenon, called the blue nugget (BN) phase, is the compact star-forming phase in the central regions of many growing galaxies that follows an earlier phase of gas compaction and is followed by a central quenching phase. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) with mock “observed” images of simulated galaxies at three phases of evolution— pre-BN, BN, and post-BN—and demonstrate that the CNN successfully retrieves the three phases in other simulated galaxies. We show that BNs are identified by the CNN within a time window of ∼0.15 Hubble times. When the trained CNN is applied to observed galaxies from the CANDELS survey at z = 1–3, it successfully identifies galaxies at the three phases. We find that the observed BNs are preferentially found in galaxies at a characteristic stellar mass range, 109.2–10.3 M ⊙ at all redshifts. This is consistent with the characteristic galaxy mass for BNs as detected in the simulations and is meaningful because it is revealed in the observations when the direct information concerning the total galaxy luminosity has been eliminated from the training set. This technique can be applied to the classification of other astrophysical phenomena for improved comparison of theory and observations in the era of large imaging surveys and cosmological simulations.

Identifying Common Genetic Risk Factors of Diabetic Neuropathies

PubMed Central

Witzel, Ini-Isabée; Jelinek, Herbert F.; Khalaf, Kinda; Lee, Sungmun; Khandoker, Ahsan H.; Alsafar, Habiba

2015-01-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global public health problem of epidemic proportions, with 60–70% of affected individuals suffering from associated neurovascular complications that act on multiple organ systems. The most common and clinically significant neuropathies of T2DM include uremic neuropathy, peripheral neuropathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. These conditions seriously impact an individual’s quality of life and significantly increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. Although advances in gene sequencing technologies have identified several genetic variants that may regulate the development and progression of T2DM, little is known about whether or not the variants are involved in disease progression and how these genetic variants are associated with diabetic neuropathy specifically. Significant missing heritability data and complex disease etiologies remain to be explained. This article is the first to provide a review of the genetic risk variants implicated in the diabetic neuropathies and to highlight potential commonalities. We thereby aim to contribute to the creation of a genetic-metabolic model that will help to elucidate the cause of diabetic neuropathies, evaluate a patient’s risk profile, and ultimately facilitate preventative and targeted treatment for the individual. PMID:26074879

Five endometrial cancer risk loci identified through genome-wide association analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Timothy Ht; Thompson, Deborah J; O'Mara, Tracy A; Painter, Jodie N; Glubb, Dylan M; Flach, Susanne; Lewis, Annabelle; French, Juliet D; Freeman-Mills, Luke; Church, David; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Hodgson, Shirley; Webb, Penelope M; Attia, John; Holliday, Elizabeth G; McEvoy, Mark; Scott, Rodney J; Henders, Anjali K; Martin, Nicholas G; Montgomery, Grant W; Nyholt, Dale R; Ahmed, Shahana; Healey, Catherine S; Shah, Mitul; Dennis, Joe; Fasching, Peter A; Beckmann, Matthias W; Hein, Alexander; Ekici, Arif B; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Li, Jingmei; Dörk, Thilo; Dürst, Matthias; Hillemanns, Peter; Runnebaum, Ingo; Amant, Frederic; Schrauwen, Stefanie; Zhao, Hui; Lambrechts, Diether; Depreeuw, Jeroen; Dowdy, Sean C; Goode, Ellen L; Fridley, Brooke L; Winham, Stacey J; Njølstad, Tormund S; Salvesen, Helga B; Trovik, Jone; Werner, Henrica Mj; Ashton, Katie; Otton, Geoffrey; Proietto, Tony; Liu, Tao; Mints, Miriam; Tham, Emma; Consortium, Chibcha; Jun Li, Mulin; Yip, Shun H; Wang, Junwen; Bolla, Manjeet K; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Dunlop, Malcolm; Houlston, Richard; Palles, Claire; Hopper, John L; Peto, Julian; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Burwinkel, Barbara; Brenner, Hermann; Meindl, Alfons; Brauch, Hiltrud; Lindblom, Annika; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Couch, Fergus J; Giles, Graham G; Kristensen, Vessela N; Cox, Angela; Cunningham, Julie M; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Edwards, Stacey L; Easton, Douglas F; Tomlinson, Ian; Spurdle, Amanda B

2016-06-01

We conducted a meta-analysis of three endometrial cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and two follow-up phases totaling 7,737 endometrial cancer cases and 37,144 controls of European ancestry. Genome-wide imputation and meta-analysis identified five new risk loci of genome-wide significance at likely regulatory regions on chromosomes 13q22.1 (rs11841589, near KLF5), 6q22.31 (rs13328298, in LOC643623 and near HEY2 and NCOA7), 8q24.21 (rs4733613, telomeric to MYC), 15q15.1 (rs937213, in EIF2AK4, near BMF) and 14q32.33 (rs2498796, in AKT1, near SIVA1). We also found a second independent 8q24.21 signal (rs17232730). Functional studies of the 13q22.1 locus showed that rs9600103 (pairwise r(2) = 0.98 with rs11841589) is located in a region of active chromatin that interacts with the KLF5 promoter region. The rs9600103[T] allele that is protective in endometrial cancer suppressed gene expression in vitro, suggesting that regulation of the expression of KLF5, a gene linked to uterine development, is implicated in tumorigenesis. These findings provide enhanced insight into the genetic and biological basis of endometrial cancer.

Model of areas for identifying risks influencing the compliance of technological processes and products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misztal, A.; Belu, N.

2016-08-01

Operation of every company is associated with the risk of interfering with proper performance of its fundamental processes. This risk is associated with various internal areas of the company, as well as the environment in which it operates. From the point of view of ensuring compliance of the course of specific technological processes and, consequently, product conformity with requirements, it is important to identify these threats and eliminate or reduce the risk of their occurrence. The purpose of this article is to present a model of areas of identifying risk affecting the compliance of processes and products, which is based on multiregional targeted monitoring of typical places of interference and risk management methods. The model is based on the verification of risk analyses carried out in small and medium-sized manufacturing companies in various industries..

Analyses in Support of Risk-Informed Natural Gas Vehicle Maintenance Facility Codes and Standards: Phase II.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Chris Bensdotter; Muna, Alice Baca

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed natural gas fueled vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operating procedures. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase II work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest using risk ranking. Detailed simulations and modeling were performed to estimate the location and behaviormore » of natural gas releases based on these scenarios. Specific code conflicts were identified, and ineffective code requirements were highlighted and resolutions proposed. These include ventilation rate basis on area or volume, as well as a ceiling offset which seems ineffective at protecting against flammable gas concentrations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge Bill Houf (SNL -- Retired) for his assistance with the set-up and post-processing of the numerical simulations. The authors also acknowledge Doug Horne (retired) for his helpful discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the support from the Clean Cities program of DOE's Vehicle Technology Office.« less

Risk Assessment Related to Atmospheric Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Gas and Particle Phases near Industrial Sites

PubMed Central

Ramírez, Noelia; Cuadras, Anna; Marcé, Rosa Maria

2011-01-01

Background: Inhalation is one of the main means of human exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) because of their ubiquitous presence in the atmosphere. However, most studies have considered only PAHs found in the particle phase and have omitted the contribution of the gas-phase PAHs to the risk. Objective: We estimated the lifetime lung cancer risk from PAH exposure by inhalation in people living next to the largest chemical site in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean area. Methods: We determined 18 PAHs in the atmospheric gas and particle phase. We monitored the PAHs for 1 year in three locations near the chemical site in different seasons. We used toxic equivalence factors to calculate benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) equivalents (BaP-eq) for individual PAHs and applied the World Health Organization unit risk (UR) for BaP (UR = 8.7 × 10–5) to estimate lifetime cancer risks due to PAH exposures. Results: We observed some spatial and seasonal variability in PAH concentrations. The contribution of gas-phase PAHs to the total BaP-eq value was between 34% and 86%. The total estimated average lifetime lung cancer risk due to PAH exposure in the study area was 1.2 × 10–4. Conclusions: The estimated risk was higher than values recommended by the World Health Organization and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency but lower than the threshold value of 10–3 that is considered an indication of definite risk according to similar risk studies. The results also showed that risk may be underestimated if the contributions of gas-phase PAHs are not considered. PMID:21478082

Exploring demands from the perspective of employees identified as being at risk of burnout

PubMed Central

Gauche, Cecile; de Beer, Leon T.; Brink, Lizelle

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: Burnout has become an occupational health concern. However, little is known about the experiences of individuals identified as being at risk of burnout. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring employees’ experiences of well-being who were identified as burnout risks. Method: Interviews were conducted with 26 employees who agreed to participate in the study. A phenomenological approach was taken, with a case study design as the research strategy. Results: Three major themes were identified: job demands, life demands, and health concerns. It was evident that participants were experiencing demanding conditions in both their work and personal lives, indicating burnout to be a multi-domain phenomenon. Conclusions: Professionals and managers should take note of these results to assist and support employees who are identified as being at risk of burnout. PMID:28784048

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans.

PubMed

Amin Al Olama, Ali; Dadaev, Tokhir; Hazelett, Dennis J; Li, Qiuyan; Leongamornlert, Daniel; Saunders, Edward J; Stephens, Sarah; Cieza-Borrella, Clara; Whitmore, Ian; Benlloch Garcia, Sara; Giles, Graham G; Southey, Melissa C; Fitzgerald, Liesel; Gronberg, Henrik; Wiklund, Fredrik; Aly, Markus; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Key, Tim J; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David E; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Mcdonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walther; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Wokołorczyk, Dominika; Kluzniak, Wojciech; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Arndt, Volker; Park, Jong Y; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith A; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej; Govindasami, Koveela; Guy, Michelle; Lophatonanon, Artitaya; Muir, Kenneth; Viñuela, Ana; Brown, Andrew A; Freedman, Mathew; Conti, David V; Easton, Douglas; Coetzee, Gerhard A; Eeles, Rosalind A; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia

2015-10-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Combining Knowledge and Data Driven Insights for Identifying Risk Factors using Electronic Health Records

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Luo, Dijun; Markatou, Marianthi; Wang, Fei; Edabollahi, Shahram; Steinhubl, Steven E.; Daar, Zahra; Stewart, Walter F.

2012-01-01

Background: The ability to identify the risk factors related to an adverse condition, e.g., heart failures (HF) diagnosis, is very important for improving care quality and reducing cost. Existing approaches for risk factor identification are either knowledge driven (from guidelines or literatures) or data driven (from observational data). No existing method provides a model to effectively combine expert knowledge with data driven insight for risk factor identification. Methods: We present a systematic approach to enhance known knowledge-based risk factors with additional potential risk factors derived from data. The core of our approach is a sparse regression model with regularization terms that correspond to both knowledge and data driven risk factors. Results: The approach is validated using a large dataset containing 4,644 heart failure cases and 45,981 controls. The outpatient electronic health records (EHRs) for these patients include diagnosis, medication, lab results from 2003–2010. We demonstrate that the proposed method can identify complementary risk factors that are not in the existing known factors and can better predict the onset of HF. We quantitatively compare different sets of risk factors in the context of predicting onset of HF using the performance metric, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). The combined risk factors between knowledge and data significantly outperform knowledge-based risk factors alone. Furthermore, those additional risk factors are confirmed to be clinically meaningful by a cardiologist. Conclusion: We present a systematic framework for combining knowledge and data driven insights for risk factor identification. We demonstrate the power of this framework in the context of predicting onset of HF, where our approach can successfully identify intuitive and predictive risk factors beyond a set of known HF risk factors. PMID:23304365

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

PubMed Central

Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D.; Chen, Xiao Qing; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E.; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A.; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J.; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L.; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W.; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y.; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D.; Castelao, Jose E.; Chan, Tsun L.; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Chia, Kee Seng; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L.; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M.; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B.; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F.; Dörk, Thilo; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M.; Ekici, Arif B.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M.; García-Sáenz, José A.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G.; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S.; Goldgar, David E.; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I.; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A.; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N.; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hoover, Robert N.; Hopper, John L.; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M.; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J.; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I.; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Marchand, Loic Le; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Chuen Neng; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P.; Ma, Edmond S.K.; MacInnis, Robert J.; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E.; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Mohd Taib, Nur Aishah; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F.; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Olson, Janet E.; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V. Shane; Park, Sue K.; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I.A.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofieva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S.; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J. Th.; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P.; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J.; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E.; Shrubsole, Martha J.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C.; Spinelli, John J.; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O.; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A.; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H.; Terry, Mary Beth; Tessier, Daniel C.; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J.; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M.W.; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H.; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R.; Yip, Cheng Har; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R.; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L.; Amos, Christopher I.; Couch, Fergus J.; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J.; Milne, Roger L.; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Dunning, Alison M.; Edwards, Stacey L.; Bader, Gary D.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F.

2017-01-01

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes such as BRCA1 and many common, mainly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. We report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry1. We identified 65 new loci associated with overall breast cancer at p<5x10-8. The majority of credible risk SNPs in the new loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in-silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all SNPs in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the utility of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention. PMID:29059683

Standardised survey method for identifying catchment risks to water quality.

PubMed

Baker, D L; Ferguson, C M; Chier, P; Warnecke, M; Watkinson, A

2016-06-01

This paper describes the development and application of a systematic methodology to identify and quantify risks in drinking water and recreational catchments. The methodology assesses microbial and chemical contaminants from both diffuse and point sources within a catchment using Escherichia coli, protozoan pathogens and chemicals (including fuel and pesticides) as index contaminants. Hazard source information is gathered by a defined sanitary survey process involving use of a software tool which groups hazards into six types: sewage infrastructure, on-site sewage systems, industrial, stormwater, agriculture and recreational sites. The survey estimates the likelihood of the site affecting catchment water quality, and the potential consequences, enabling the calculation of risk for individual sites. These risks are integrated to calculate a cumulative risk for each sub-catchment and the whole catchment. The cumulative risks process accounts for the proportion of potential input sources surveyed and for transfer of contaminants from upstream to downstream sub-catchments. The output risk matrices show the relative risk sources for each of the index contaminants, highlighting those with the greatest impact on water quality at a sub-catchment and catchment level. Verification of the sanitary survey assessments and prioritisation is achieved by comparison with water quality data and microbial source tracking.

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

PubMed

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Identifying seizure onset zone from electrocorticographic recordings: A machine learning approach based on phase locking value.

PubMed

Elahian, Bahareh; Yeasin, Mohammed; Mudigoudar, Basanagoud; Wheless, James W; Babajani-Feremi, Abbas

2017-10-01

Using a novel technique based on phase locking value (PLV), we investigated the potential for features extracted from electrocorticographic (ECoG) recordings to serve as biomarkers to identify the seizure onset zone (SOZ). We computed the PLV between the phase of the amplitude of high gamma activity (80-150Hz) and the phase of lower frequency rhythms (4-30Hz) from ECoG recordings obtained from 10 patients with epilepsy (21 seizures). We extracted five features from the PLV and used a machine learning approach based on logistic regression to build a model that classifies electrodes as SOZ or non-SOZ. More than 96% of electrodes identified as the SOZ by our algorithm were within the resected area in six seizure-free patients. In four non-seizure-free patients, more than 31% of the identified SOZ electrodes by our algorithm were outside the resected area. In addition, we observed that the seizure outcome in non-seizure-free patients correlated with the number of non-resected SOZ electrodes identified by our algorithm. This machine learning approach, based on features extracted from the PLV, effectively identified electrodes within the SOZ. The approach has the potential to assist clinicians in surgical decision-making when pre-surgical intracranial recordings are utilized. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying and assessing highly hazardous drugs within quality risk management programs.

PubMed

Sussman, Robert G; Schatz, Anthony R; Kimmel, Tracy A; Ader, Allan; Naumann, Bruce D; Weideman, Patricia A

2016-08-01

Historically, pharmaceutical industry regulatory guidelines have assigned certain active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to various categories of concern, such as "cytotoxic", "hormones", and "steroids". These categories have been used to identify APIs requiring segregation or dedication in order to prevent cross-contamination and protect the quality and safety of drug products. Since these terms were never defined by regulatory authorities, and many novel pharmacological mechanisms challenge these categories, there is a recognized need to modify the historical use of these terms. The application of a risk-based approach using a health-based limit, such as an acceptable daily exposure (ADE), is more appropriate for the development of a Quality Risk Management Program (QRMP) than the use of categories of concern. The toxicological and pharmacological characteristics of these categories are discussed to help identify and prioritize compounds requiring special attention. Controlling airborne concentrations and the contamination of product contact surfaces in accordance with values derived from quantitative risk assessments can prevent adverse effects in workers and patients, regardless of specific categorical designations to which these APIs have been assigned. The authors acknowledge the movement away from placing compounds into categories and, while not yet universal, the importance of basing QRMPs on compound-specific ADEs and risk assessments. Based on the results of a risk assessment, segregation and dedication may also be required for some compounds to prevent cross contamination during manufacture of APIs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Court procedures for identifying problem drinkers : phase II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1971-11-30

This report summarizes the studies conducted in the first phase of the project and describes the tasks completed in the second phase. The court procedures manual developed in Phase I was reviewed by a panel of experts and subsequently revised. Three ...

A simple risk score identifies individuals at high risk of developing Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rahman, Mushtaqur; Simmons, Rebecca K; Harding, Anne-Helen; Wareham, Nicholas J; Griffin, Simon J

2008-06-01

Randomized trials have demonstrated that Type 2 diabetes is preventable among high-risk individuals. To date, such individuals have been identified through population screening using the oral glucose tolerance test. To assess whether a risk score comprising only routinely collected non-biochemical parameters was effective in identifying those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40-79 recruited from UK general practices attended a health check between 1993 and 1998 (n = 25 639) and were followed for a mean of 5 years for diabetes incidence. The Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score was computed for 24 495 individuals with baseline data on age, sex, prescription of steroids and anti-hypertensive medication, family history of diabetes, body mass index and smoking status. We examined the incidence of diabetes across quintiles of the risk score and plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to assess discrimination. There were 323 new cases of diabetes, a cumulative incidence of 2.76/1000 person-years. Those in the top quintile of risk were 22 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quintile (odds ratio 22.3; 95% CI: 11.0-45.4). In all, 54% of all clinically incident cases occurred in individuals in the top quintile of risk (risk score > 0.37). The area under the ROC was 74.5%. The risk score is a simple, effective tool for the identification of those at risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. Such methods may be more feasible than mass population screening with biochemical tests in defining target populations for prevention programmes.

In-depth Investigation of Genetic Region Identifies Mechanism that Contributes to Cancer Risk

Cancer.gov

Investigators in the Laboratory of Translational Genomics have identified a genetic variant in a multi-cancer risk locus at chromosome 5p15.33 that explains, at least in part, the molecular mechanism through which this variant influences cancer risk.

Using decision tree analysis to identify risk factors for relapse to smoking

PubMed Central

Piper, Megan E.; Loh, Wei-Yin; Smith, Stevens S.; Japuntich, Sandra J.; Baker, Timothy B.

2010-01-01

This research used classification tree analysis and logistic regression models to identify risk factors related to short- and long-term abstinence. Baseline and cessation outcome data from two smoking cessation trials, conducted from 2001 to 2002, in two Midwestern urban areas, were analyzed. There were 928 participants (53.1% women, 81.8% white) with complete data. Both analyses suggest that relapse risk is produced by interactions of risk factors and that early and late cessation outcomes reflect different vulnerability factors. The results illustrate the dynamic nature of relapse risk and suggest the importance of efficient modeling of interactions in relapse prediction. PMID:20397871

Identifying and managing the risks of medical ionizing radiation in endourology.

PubMed

Yecies, Todd; Averch, Timothy D; Semins, Michelle J

2018-02-01

The risks of exposure to medical ionizing radiation is of increasing concern both among medical professionals and the general public. Patients with nephrolithiasis are exposed to high levels of ionizing radiation through both diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. Endourologists who perform a high-volume of fluoroscopy guided procedures are also exposed to significant quantities of ionizing radiation. The combination of judicious use of radiation-based imaging modalities, application of new imaging techniques such as ultra-low dose computed tomography (CT) scan, and modifying use of current technology such as increasing ultrasound and pulsed fluoroscopy utilization offers the possibility of significantly reducing radiation exposure. We present a review of the literature regarding the risks of medical ionizing radiation to patients and surgeons as it pertains to the field of endourology and interventions that can be performed to limit this exposure. A review of the current state of the literature was performed using MEDLINE and PubMed. Interventions designed to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure were identified and analyzed. Summaries of the data were compiled and synthesized in the body of the text. While no level 1 evidence exists demonstrating the risk of secondary malignancy with radiation exposure, the preponderance of evidence suggests a dose and age dependent increase in malignancy risk from ionizing radiation. Patients with nephrolithiasis were exposed to an average effective dose of 37mSv over a 2 year period. Multiple evidence-based interventions to limit patient and surgeon radiation exposure and associated risk were identified. Current evidence suggest an age and dose dependent risk of secondary malignancy from ionizing radiation. Urologists must act in accordance with ALARA principles to safely manage nephrolithiasis while minimizing radiation exposure.

Identifying Children at High Risk for a Child Maltreatment Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubowitz, Howard; Kim, Jeongeun; Black, Maureen M.; Weisbart, Cindy; Semiatin, Joshua; Magder, Laurence S.

2011-01-01

Objective: To help professionals identify factors that place families at risk for future child maltreatment, to facilitate necessary services and to potentially help prevent abuse and neglect. Method: The data are from a prospective, longitudinal study of 332 low-income families recruited from urban pediatric primary care clinics, followed for…

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island Genetic Isolate Identifies Candidate Genes for CVD Risk Traits

PubMed Central

Benton, Miles C.; Lea, Rod A.; Macartney-Coxson, Donia; Carless, Melanie A.; Göring, Harald H.; Bellis, Claire; Hanna, Michelle; Eccles, David; Chambers, Geoffrey K.; Curran, Joanne E.; Harper, Jacquie L.; Blangero, John; Griffiths, Lyn R.

2013-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10−7) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations. PMID:24314549

Identifying and reducing risk factors related to trainee-client sexual misconduct.

PubMed

Hamilton, J C; Spruill, J

1999-06-01

Sexual misconduct involving therapists-in-training and their clients is addressed. Personal and situational factors that may constitute risk factors for the development of inappropriate sexual activity between trainees and their clients are identified. Although there may be certain characteristics that put particular students at risk for such involvement, the authors believe this risk is more strongly related to systemic, programmatic, and pedagogic characteristics of the environments in which students train. Examples include, respectively, the decline of concern over transference and countertransference, failure to include education about client-therapist sexual attraction and the consequences of sexual misconduct in graduate psychology curricula, and the reluctance of supervisors to deal straightforwardly with trainees' sexual feelings. Suggestions for reducing risks for client-therapist sexual misconduct are directed toward these situational factors.

Hospital Readmission and Social Risk Factors Identified from Physician Notes.

PubMed

Navathe, Amol S; Zhong, Feiran; Lei, Victor J; Chang, Frank Y; Sordo, Margarita; Topaz, Maxim; Navathe, Shamkant B; Rocha, Roberto A; Zhou, Li

2018-04-01

To evaluate the prevalence of seven social factors using physician notes as compared to claims and structured electronic health records (EHRs) data and the resulting association with 30-day readmissions. A multihospital academic health system in southeastern Massachusetts. An observational study of 49,319 patients with cardiovascular disease admitted from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2013, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for patient characteristics. All-payer claims, EHR data, and physician notes extracted from a centralized clinical registry. All seven social characteristics were identified at the highest rates in physician notes. For example, we identified 14,872 patient admissions with poor social support in physician notes, increasing the prevalence from 0.4 percent using ICD-9 codes and structured EHR data to 16.0 percent. Compared to an 18.6 percent baseline readmission rate, risk-adjusted analysis showed higher readmission risk for patients with housing instability (readmission rate 24.5 percent; p < .001), depression (20.6 percent; p < .001), drug abuse (20.2 percent; p = .01), and poor social support (20.0 percent; p = .01). The seven social risk factors studied are substantially more prevalent than represented in administrative data. Automated methods for analyzing physician notes may enable better identification of patients with social needs. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Identifying equivalent sound sources from aeroacoustic simulations using a numerical phased array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pignier, Nicolas J.; O'Reilly, Ciarán J.; Boij, Susann

2017-04-01

An application of phased array methods to numerical data is presented, aimed at identifying equivalent flow sound sources from aeroacoustic simulations. Based on phased array data extracted from compressible flow simulations, sound source strengths are computed on a set of points in the source region using phased array techniques assuming monopole propagation. Two phased array techniques are used to compute the source strengths: an approach using a Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse and a beamforming approach using dual linear programming (dual-LP) deconvolution. The first approach gives a model of correlated sources for the acoustic field generated from the flow expressed in a matrix of cross- and auto-power spectral values, whereas the second approach results in a model of uncorrelated sources expressed in a vector of auto-power spectral values. The accuracy of the equivalent source model is estimated by computing the acoustic spectrum at a far-field observer. The approach is tested first on an analytical case with known point sources. It is then applied to the example of the flow around a submerged air inlet. The far-field spectra obtained from the source models for two different flow conditions are in good agreement with the spectra obtained with a Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings integral, showing the accuracy of the source model from the observer's standpoint. Various configurations for the phased array and for the sources are used. The dual-LP beamforming approach shows better robustness to changes in the number of probes and sources than the pseudo-inverse approach. The good results obtained with this simulation case demonstrate the potential of the phased array approach as a modelling tool for aeroacoustic simulations.

Hazardous drinking and military community functioning: identifying mediating risk factors.

PubMed

Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Slep, Amy M Smith

2011-08-01

Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may be most effective in targeting community functioning (e.g., support from formal agencies, community cohesion) that impacts hazardous drinking via other proximal risk factors. The goal of the current study is to inform community-wide prevention efforts by testing a model of community functioning and mediating risk factors of hazardous drinking among active duty U.S. Air Force personnel. A large, representative survey sample of U.S. Air Force active duty members (N = 52,780) was collected at 82 bases worldwide. Hazardous drinking was assessed with the widely used Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, de la Fuente, & Grant, 1993). A variety of individual, family, and community measures were also assessed. Structural equation modeling was used to test a hypothesized model of community functioning, mediating risk factors and hazardous drinking. Depressive symptoms, perceived financial stress, and satisfaction with the U.S. Air Force were identified as significant mediators of the link between community functioning and hazardous drinking for men and women. Relationship satisfaction was also identified as a mediator for men. These results provide a framework for further community prevention research and suggest that prevention efforts geared at increasing aspects of community functioning (e.g., the U.S. Air Force Community Capacity model) may indirectly lead to reductions in hazardous drinking through other proximal risk factors.

Identifying Risk for Acute Kidney Injury in Infants and Children Following Cardiac Arrest.

PubMed

Neumayr, Tara M; Gill, Jeff; Fitzgerald, Julie C; Gazit, Avihu Z; Pineda, Jose A; Berg, Robert A; Dean, J Michael; Moler, Frank W; Doctor, Allan

2017-10-01

Our goal was to identify risk factors for acute kidney injury in children surviving cardiac arrest. Retrospective analysis of a public access dataset. Fifteen children's hospitals associated with the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network. Two hundred ninety-six subjects between 1 day and 18 years old who experienced in-hospital or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest between July 1, 2003, and December 31, 2004. None. Our primary outcome was development of acute kidney injury as defined by the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. An ordinal probit model was developed. We found six critical explanatory variables, including total number of epinephrine doses, postcardiac arrest blood pressure, arrest location, presence of a chronic lung condition, pH, and presence of an abnormal baseline creatinine. Total number of epinephrine doses received as well as rate of epinephrine dosing impacted acute kidney injury risk and severity of acute kidney injury. This study is the first to identify risk factors for acute kidney injury in children after cardiac arrest. Our findings regarding the impact of epinephrine dosing are of particular interest and suggest potential for epinephrine toxicity with regard to acute kidney injury. The ability to identify and potentially modify risk factors for acute kidney injury after cardiac arrest may lead to improved morbidity and mortality in this population.

Identifying Falls Risk Screenings Not Documented with Administrative Codes Using Natural Language Processing

PubMed Central

Zhu, Vivienne J; Walker, Tina D; Warren, Robert W; Jenny, Peggy B; Meystre, Stephane; Lenert, Leslie A

2017-01-01

Quality reporting that relies on coded administrative data alone may not completely and accurately depict providers’ performance. To assess this concern with a test case, we developed and evaluated a natural language processing (NLP) approach to identify falls risk screenings documented in clinical notes of patients without coded falls risk screening data. Extracting information from 1,558 clinical notes (mainly progress notes) from 144 eligible patients, we generated a lexicon of 38 keywords relevant to falls risk screening, 26 terms for pre-negation, and 35 terms for post-negation. The NLP algorithm identified 62 (out of the 144) patients who falls risk screening documented only in clinical notes and not coded. Manual review confirmed 59 patients as true positives and 77 patients as true negatives. Our NLP approach scored 0.92 for precision, 0.95 for recall, and 0.93 for F-measure. These results support the concept of utilizing NLP to enhance healthcare quality reporting. PMID:29854264

Identifying high-risk roadways for infrastructure investment using naturalistic driving data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

The state-of-the-practice for most municipal traffic agencies seeking to identify high-risk road segments : has been to use prior crash history. While historic traffic crash data is recognized to be valuable in : improving roadway safety, it relies o...

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple loci associated with bladder cancer risk

PubMed Central

Figueroa, Jonine D.; Ye, Yuanqing; Siddiq, Afshan; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Kooperberg, Charles; Cussenot, Olivier; Benhamou, Simone; Prescott, Jennifer; Porru, Stefano; Dinney, Colin P.; Malats, Núria; Baris, Dalsu; Purdue, Mark; Jacobs, Eric J.; Albanes, Demetrius; Wang, Zhaoming; Deng, Xiang; Chung, Charles C.; Tang, Wei; Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita, H.; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Ljungberg, Börje; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Krogh, Vittorio; Dorronsoro, Miren; Travis, Ruth; Tjønneland, Anne; Brenan, Paul; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Riboli, Elio; Conti, David; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Stern, Mariana C.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Van Den Berg, David; Yuan, Jian-Min; Hohensee, Chancellor; Rodabough, Rebecca; Cancel-Tassin, Geraldine; Roupret, Morgan; Comperat, Eva; Chen, Constance; De Vivo, Immaculata; Giovannucci, Edward; Hunter, David J.; Kraft, Peter; Lindstrom, Sara; Carta, Angela; Pavanello, Sofia; Arici, Cecilia; Mastrangelo, Giuseppe; Kamat, Ashish M.; Lerner, Seth P.; Barton Grossman, H.; Lin, Jie; Gu, Jian; Pu, Xia; Hutchinson, Amy; Burdette, Laurie; Wheeler, William; Kogevinas, Manolis; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Carrato, Alfredo; García-Closas, Reina; Lloreta, Josep; Schwenn, Molly; Karagas, Margaret R.; Johnson, Alison; Schned, Alan; Armenti, Karla R.; Hosain, G.M.; Andriole, Gerald; Grubb, Robert; Black, Amanda; Ryan Diver, W.; Gapstur, Susan M.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Haiman, Chris A.; Landi, Maria T.; Caporaso, Neil; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Vineis, Paolo; Wu, Xifeng; Silverman, Debra T.; Chanock, Stephen; Rothman, Nathaniel

2014-01-01

Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 11 independent susceptibility loci associated with bladder cancer risk. To discover additional risk variants, we conducted a new GWAS of 2422 bladder cancer cases and 5751 controls, followed by a meta-analysis with two independently published bladder cancer GWAS, resulting in a combined analysis of 6911 cases and 11 814 controls of European descent. TaqMan genotyping of 13 promising single nucleotide polymorphisms with P < 1 × 10−5 was pursued in a follow-up set of 801 cases and 1307 controls. Two new loci achieved genome-wide statistical significance: rs10936599 on 3q26.2 (P = 4.53 × 10−9) and rs907611 on 11p15.5 (P = 4.11 × 10−8). Two notable loci were also identified that approached genome-wide statistical significance: rs6104690 on 20p12.2 (P = 7.13 × 10−7) and rs4510656 on 6p22.3 (P = 6.98 × 10−7); these require further studies for confirmation. In conclusion, our study has identified new susceptibility alleles for bladder cancer risk that require fine-mapping and laboratory investigation, which could further understanding into the biological underpinnings of bladder carcinogenesis. PMID:24163127

Identifying areas of deforestation risk for REDD+ using a species modeling tool

PubMed Central

Riveros, Juan Carlos; Forrest, Jessica L

2014-01-01

Background To implement the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, countries need to prioritize areas to combat future deforestation CO2 emissions, identify the drivers of deforestation around which to develop mitigation actions, and quantify and value carbon for financial mechanisms. Each comes with its own methodological challenges, and existing approaches and tools to do so can be costly to implement or require considerable technical knowledge and skill. Here, we present an approach utilizing a machine learning technique known as Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) to identify areas at high deforestation risk in the study area in Madre de Dios, Peru under a business-as-usual scenario in which historic deforestation rates continue. We link deforestation risk area to carbon density values to estimate future carbon emissions. We quantified area deforested and carbon emissions between 2000 and 2009 as the basis of the scenario. Results We observed over 80,000 ha of forest cover lost from 2000-2009 (0.21% annual loss), representing over 39 million Mg CO2. The rate increased rapidly following the enhancement of the Inter Oceanic Highway in 2005. Accessibility and distance to previous deforestation were strong predictors of deforestation risk, while land use designation was less important. The model performed consistently well (AUC > 0.9), significantly better than random when we compared predicted deforestation risk to observed. If past deforestation rates continue, we estimate that 132,865 ha of forest could be lost by the year 2020, representing over 55 million Mg CO2. Conclusions Maxent provided a reliable method for identifying areas at high risk of deforestation and the major explanatory variables that could draw attention for mitigation action planning under REDD+. The tool is accessible, replicable and easy to use; all necessary for producing good risk estimates and adapt models after potential landscape change. We

Identifying areas of deforestation risk for REDD+ using a species modeling tool.

PubMed

Aguilar-Amuchastegui, Naikoa; Riveros, Juan Carlos; Forrest, Jessica L

2014-01-01

To implement the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, countries need to prioritize areas to combat future deforestation CO2 emissions, identify the drivers of deforestation around which to develop mitigation actions, and quantify and value carbon for financial mechanisms. Each comes with its own methodological challenges, and existing approaches and tools to do so can be costly to implement or require considerable technical knowledge and skill. Here, we present an approach utilizing a machine learning technique known as Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) to identify areas at high deforestation risk in the study area in Madre de Dios, Peru under a business-as-usual scenario in which historic deforestation rates continue. We link deforestation risk area to carbon density values to estimate future carbon emissions. We quantified area deforested and carbon emissions between 2000 and 2009 as the basis of the scenario. We observed over 80,000 ha of forest cover lost from 2000-2009 (0.21% annual loss), representing over 39 million Mg CO2. The rate increased rapidly following the enhancement of the Inter Oceanic Highway in 2005. Accessibility and distance to previous deforestation were strong predictors of deforestation risk, while land use designation was less important. The model performed consistently well (AUC > 0.9), significantly better than random when we compared predicted deforestation risk to observed. If past deforestation rates continue, we estimate that 132,865 ha of forest could be lost by the year 2020, representing over 55 million Mg CO2. Maxent provided a reliable method for identifying areas at high risk of deforestation and the major explanatory variables that could draw attention for mitigation action planning under REDD+. The tool is accessible, replicable and easy to use; all necessary for producing good risk estimates and adapt models after potential landscape change. We propose this approach for developing

Effect of autoimmunity risk loci on the honeymoon phase in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Moosavi, Mandana; Séguin, Jade; Polychronakos, Constantin

2017-09-01

To analyze the correlation between duration and depth of honeymoon phase in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) and autoimmunity risk loci. From a database of 567 individuals with clinical data, we selected 210 patients for whom we had dense genotyping results of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from our previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or targeted genotyping data. Using PLINK software, we analyzed the association between time spent in honeymoon phase as our quantitative trait, and 24 known autoimmunity predisposing SNPs. We found one allele on chromosome 5, rs4613763 mapping to a Prostaglandin Receptor EP4 (PTGER4) to reach statistical significance (P = .0067), in determining a larger proportion of T1DM patients with a detectable honeymoon phase. This polymorphism determines risk for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) but not T1DM. By showing the role of PTGER4 in autoimmune diseases and its effect on inflammatory responses via its interaction with NF-kB, we hypothesize that PTGER4 modulates honeymoon phase in patients with T1DM without influencing the risk of developing T1DM. We hypothesize that this quantitative trait locus promotes inflammatory suppression of beta cells without directly promoting beta-cell destruction. Understanding SNPs that effect function can provide insight in to pathogenesis of T1DM and the mechanism of the honeymoon phase. Because this is a hypothesis-generating study, it needs to be replicated in an additional larger cohort. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

2018-01-01

Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

The Readmission Risk Flag: Using the Electronic Health Record to Automatically Identify Patients at Risk for 30-day Readmission

PubMed Central

Baillie, Charles A.; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C. William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A.

2015-01-01

Background Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. Objective To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system’s EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Design Retrospective and prospective cohort. Setting Healthcare system consisting of three hospitals. Patients All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. Interventions An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Measures Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Results Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a c-statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%) and c-statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. Conclusions An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. PMID:24227707

The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

PubMed

Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

2013-12-01

Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Sexual Risk Behavior Among Youth With Bipolar Disorder: Identifying Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors.

PubMed

Krantz, Megan; Goldstein, Tina; Rooks, Brian; Merranko, John; Liao, Fangzi; Gill, Mary Kay; Diler, Rasim; Hafeman, Danella; Ryan, Neal; Goldstein, Benjamin; Yen, Shirley; Hower, Heather; Hunt, Jeffrey; Keller, Martin; Strober, Michael; Axelson, David; Birmaher, Boris

2018-02-01

This study aims to document rates of sexual activity among youth with bipolar spectrum disorder (BD) and to examine demographic and clinical factors associated with first sexual activity and sexual risk behavior during follow-up. The sample was drawn from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study of 413 youth 7 to 17 years at baseline who met criteria for bipolar spectrum disorder according to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children. Psychiatric symptoms during follow-up were assessed using the Adolescent Longitudinal Interview Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE). Sexual behavior and level of sexual risk (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, and/or partners with known sexually transmitted infections) were assessed by trained evaluators using the ALIFE Psychosocial Functioning Scale. Analyses were conducted in relation to first sexual behavior during follow-up and then to subsequent sexual behaviors (mean 9.7 years, standard deviation 3.2). Sexually active COBY youth (n = 292 of 413; 71%) were more likely females, using substances, and not living with both parents. Consistent with findings among healthy youth, earlier first sexual activity in the sample was significantly associated with low socioeconomic status, female sex, comorbid disruptive behavior disorder, and substance use. As with healthy youth, sexual risk behavior during follow-up was significantly associated with non-Caucasian race, low socioeconomic status, substance use, and history of sexual abuse. Of those COBY youth who were sexually active, 11% reported sexual assault or abuse, 36% reported becoming pregnant (or the significant other becoming pregnant), and 15% reported having at least 1 abortion (or the significant other having an abortion) during follow-up. Hypomanic symptoms during follow-up were temporally associated with the greatest risk for sexual risk behavior. Demographic and clinical factors could help identify youth with bipolar spectrum

A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

PubMed

Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

2009-03-01

We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

Identifying high-risk small business industries for occupational safety and health interventions.

PubMed

Okun, A; Lentz, T J; Schulte, P; Stayner, L

2001-03-01

Approximately one-third (32%) of U.S. workers are employed in small business industries (those with 80% of workers in establishments with fewer than 100 employees), and approximately 53 million persons in private industry work in small business establishments. This study was performed to identify small business industries at high risk for occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. Small business industries were identified from among all three- and four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes and ranked using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by rates and numbers of occupational injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. Both incidence rates and number of injury, illness, and fatality cases were evaluated. The 253 small business industries identified accounted for 1,568 work-related fatalities (34% of all private industry). Transportation incidents and violent acts were the leading causes of these fatalities. Detailed injury and illness data were available for 105 small business industries, that accounted for 1,476,400 work-related injuries, and 55,850 occupational illnesses. Many of the small business industries had morbidity and mortality rates exceeding the average rates for all private industry. The highest risk small business industries, based on a combined morbidity and mortality index, included logging, cut stone and stone products, truck terminals, and roofing, siding, and sheet metal work. Identification of high-risk small business industries indicates priorities for those interested in developing targeted prevention programs.

Using a single binge drinking question to identify Russian women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy.

PubMed

Balachova, Tatiana; Sobell, Linda Carter; Agrawal, Sangeeta; Isurina, Galina; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Bohora, Som

2015-07-01

Low rates of contraception and at-risk drinking place many Russian women at risk of an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). The only realistic way to determine when women are at risk of AEP is by self-reports. A U.S. study found that a single binge-drinking question (SBD) effectively identified nearly all women whose drinking placed them at risk of AEP. The present study replicated the U.S. Participants were 689 non-pregnant Russian women of childbearing age who were at AEP risk. Their answers to SBD, "During the previous three months, how often did you have four or more drinks on one occasion", were compared with their reports of binge drinking on a 90-day Timeline Followback (TLFB) calendar. The SBD identified 99% of at-risk Russian women as binge drinkers, replicating U.S. Only 8% of the women were identified at-risk using a second AEP criterion of ≥8 drinks on average per week. Although Russian women did not report heavy weekly drinking and two-thirds did not meet AUDIT criteria for problem drinking, when they did drink, 40% of the time it was binge drinking. Almost all Russian women who were at risk of an AEP were identified by a single binge-drinking question. Results from this study suggest that Russian health care practitioners can use SBD to successfully screen women for AEP risk. SBD identified 99% of Russian women who were at AEP risk. Consequently, it is recommended that SBD be incorporated into routine health care screenings at OB/GYN clinic visits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

PubMed

Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

2017-06-04

This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

Risk Prioritization Tool to Identify the Public Health Risks of Wildlife Trade: The Case of Rodents from Latin America.

PubMed

Bueno, I; Smith, K M; Sampedro, F; Machalaba, C C; Karesh, W B; Travis, D A

2016-06-01

Wildlife trade (both formal and informal) is a potential driver of disease introduction and emergence. Legislative proposals aim to prevent these risks by banning wildlife imports, and creating 'white lists' of species that are cleared for importation. These approaches pose economic harm to the pet industry, and place substantial burden on importers and/or federal agencies to provide proof of low risk for importation of individual species. As a feasibility study, a risk prioritization tool was developed to rank the pathogens found in rodent species imported from Latin America into the United States with the highest risk of zoonotic consequence in the United States. Four formally traded species and 16 zoonotic pathogens were identified. Risk scores were based on the likelihood of pathogen release and human exposure, and the severity of the disease (consequences). Based on the methodology applied, three pathogens (Mycobacterium microti, Giardia spp. and Francisella tularensis) in one species (Cavia porcellus) were ranked as highest concern. The goal of this study was to present a methodological approach by which preliminary management resources can be allocated to the identified high-concern pathogen-species combinations when warranted. This tool can be expanded to other taxa and geographic locations to inform policy surrounding the wildlife trade. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Identifying Occupations at Risk for Laryngeal Disorders Requiring Specialty Voice Care.

PubMed

Mori, Matthew C; Francis, David O; Song, Phillip C

2017-10-01

Objective To identify occupational groups' use of specialty voice clinic evaluation. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary subspecialty clinic. Subjects and Methods We analyzed data collected on patients presenting to the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Voice and Speech Laboratory over a 20-year period (1993-2013). The relative risk (RR) and 99% confidence interval (CI) of presentation were calculated for each occupational category in the greater Boston population using year-matched data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Results The records of 12,120 new patients were reviewed. Using year- and occupation-matched BLS data from 2005 to 2013, 2726 patients were included in the cohort analysis. Several occupations had significantly higher risk of presentation. These included arts and entertainment (RR 4.98, CI 4.18-5.95), law (RR 3.24, CI 2.48-4.23), education (RR 3.08, CI 2.70-3.52), and social services (RR 2.07, CI 1.57-2.73). In contrast, many occupations had significantly reduced risk of presentation for laryngological disorders, for example, maintenance (RR 0.25, CI 0.15-0.42), food preparation (RR 0.35, CI 0.26-0.48), and administrative support (RR 0.49, CI 0.41-0.57). Conclusion Certain occupations are associated with higher use of laryngological services presumably because of their vocational voice needs. In addition to confirming findings from other studies, we identified several new occupation groups with increased or decreased risk for laryngologic disorders. Understanding what factors predispose to requiring specialty voice evaluation may help in targeting preventative efforts.

What’s the risk? Identifying potential human pathogens within grey-headed flying foxes faeces

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Penelope; Coutts, Scott; Prosser, Toby; Boyce, John; McCarthy, David T.

2018-01-01

Pteropus poliocephalus (grey-headed flying foxes) are recognised vectors for a range of potentially fatal human pathogens. However, to date research has primarily focused on viral disease carriage, overlooking bacterial pathogens, which also represent a significant human disease risk. The current study applied 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing, community analysis and a multi-tiered database OTU picking approach to identify faecal-derived zoonotic bacteria within two colonies of P. poliocephalus from Victoria, Australia. Our data show that sequences associated with Enterobacteriaceae (62.8% ± 24.7%), Pasteurellaceae (19.9% ± 25.7%) and Moraxellaceae (9.4% ± 11.8%) dominate flying fox faeces. Further colony specific differences in bacterial faecal colonisation patterns were also identified. In total, 34 potential pathogens, representing 15 genera, were identified. However, species level definition was only possible for Clostridium perfringens, which likely represents a low infectious risk due to the low proportion observed within the faeces and high infectious dose required for transmission. In contrast, sequences associated with other pathogenic species clusters such as Haemophilus haemolyticus-H. influenzae and Salmonella bongori-S. enterica, were present at high proportions in the faeces, and due to their relatively low infectious doses and modes of transmissions, represent a greater potential human disease risk. These analyses of the microbial community composition of Pteropus poliocephalus have significantly advanced our understanding of the potential bacterial disease risk associated with flying foxes and should direct future epidemiological and quantitative microbial risk assessments to further define the health risks presented by these animals. PMID:29360880

Work Ability Index as tool to identify workers at risk of premature work exit.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R; van der Klink, Jac J L; Groothoff, Johan W; van Rhenen, Willem

2014-12-01

To investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as tool for identifying workers at risk of premature work exit in terms of disability pension, unemployment, or early retirement. Prospective cohort study of 11,537 male construction workers (mean age 45.5 years), who completed the WAI at baseline and reported their work status (employed, unemployed, disability pension, or retired) after mean 2.3 years of follow-up. Associations between WAI scores and work status were investigated by multinomial logistic regression analysis. The ability of the WAI to discriminate between workers at high and low risk of premature work exit was analyzed by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve. 9,530 (83 %) construction workers had complete data for analysis. At follow-up, 336 (4 %) workers reported disability pension, 125 (1 %) unemployment, and 255 (3 %) retirement. WAI scores were prospectively associated with the risk of disability pension at follow-up, but not with the risk of unemployment and early retirement. The WAI showed fair discrimination to identify workers at risk of disability pension [AUC = 0.74; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77]. The discriminative ability decreased with age from AUC = 0.78 in workers aged 30-39 years to AUC = 0.69 in workers ≥50 years of age. Discrimination failed for unemployment (AUC = 0.51; 95 % CI 0.47-0.55) and early retirement (AUC = 0.58; 95 % CI 0.53-0.61). The WAI can be used to identify construction workers <50 years of age at increased risk of disability pension and invite them for preventive interventions.

Identifying risk factors for victimization among male prisoners in Taiwan.

PubMed

Kuo, Shih-Ya; Cuvelier, Steven J; Huang, Yung-Shun

2014-02-01

This study identified risk factors for prison victimization in Taiwan with an application of Western literature and assessed the extent of its applicability in an Eastern context. The sample was drawn from four male prisons located in Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan; a total of 1,181 valid surveys were collected. The results generally support the major findings of the extant Western studies. Crowding, however, was not significantly associated with the risk of victimization in any of the statistical models, which might be related to the different experiences and living conditions in the free community between Taiwanese and American inmates. This study generated clear policy implications, which may reduce prison victimization and engender a greater sense of well-being in the prison environment.

Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

2012-01-01

This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

PubMed

Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

2016-01-01

Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders

PubMed Central

Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

2017-01-01

This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as “relatively low”, contrasting with 21.4% rated as “relatively high”. Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders. PMID:28587226

ORANGES evaluation phase I risk assessment report : phase I of the US DOT sponsored evaluation of the ORANGES electronic payment system field operational test

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-03-11

This document is the US DOT evaluation Risk Assessment report for Phase I of the ORANGES field operational test. This document consolidates working papers and incorporates an assessment of issues, risks, mitigation strategies and lessons learned look...

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

2017-02-01

A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

The Nursing Home Pneumonia Risk Index: A Simple, Valid MDS-Based Method of Identifying 6-Month Risk for Pneumonia and Mortality.

PubMed

Sloane, Philip D; Zimmerman, Sheryl; Ward, Kimberly; Reed, David; Preisser, John S; Weber, David J

2017-09-01

Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of hospitalization and death for nursing home (NH) residents; however, diagnosis is often delayed because classic signs of infection are not present. We sought to identify NH residents at high risk for pneumonia, to identify persons to target for more intensive surveillance and preventive measures. Based on a literature review, we identified key risk factors for pneumonia and compiled them for use as prediction tool, limiting risk factors to those available on the Minimum Data Set (MDS). Next, we tested the tool's ability to predict 6-month pneumonia incidence and mortality rates in a sample of 674 residents from 7 NHs, evaluating it both as a continuous and a dichotomous variable, and applying both logistic regression and survival analysis to calculate estimates. NH Pneumonia Risk Index scores ranged from -1 to 6, with a mean of 2.1, a median of 2, and a mode of 2. For the outcome of pneumonia, a 1-point increase in the index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.26 (P = .038) or a hazard ratio of 1.24 (P = .037); using it as a dichotomous variable (≤2 vs ≥3), the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 1.78 (P = .045) and a hazard ratio of 1.82 (P = .025). For the outcome of mortality, a 1-point increase in the NH Pneumonia Risk Index was associated with a risk odds ratio of 1.58 (P = .002) and a hazard ratio of 1.45 (P = .013); using the index as a dichotomous variable, the corresponding figures were a risk odds ratio of 3.71 (P < .001) and a hazard ratio of 3.29 (P = .001). The NH Pneumonia Risk Index can be used by NH staff to identify residents for whom to apply especially intensive preventive measures and surveillance. Because of its strong association with mortality, the index may also be valuable in care planning and discussion of advance directives. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serum 6-Bromotryptophan Levels Identified as a Risk Factor for CKD Progression.

PubMed

Tin, Adrienne; Nadkarni, Girish; Evans, Anne M; Winkler, Cheryl A; Bottinger, Erwin; Rebholz, Casey M; Sarnak, Mark J; Inker, Lesley A; Levey, Andrew S; Lipkowitz, Michael S; Appel, Lawrence J; Arking, Dan E; Coresh, Josef; Grams, Morgan E

2018-05-18

Background Metabolite levels reflect physiologic homeostasis and may serve as biomarkers of disease progression. Identifying metabolites associated with APOL1 risk alleles-genetic variants associated with CKD risk commonly present in persons of African descent-may reveal novel markers of CKD progression relevant to other populations. Methods We evaluated associations between the number of APOL1 risk alleles and 760 serum metabolites identified via untargeted profiling in participants of the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) ( n =588; Bonferroni significance threshold P <6.5×10 -5 ) and replicated findings in 678 black participants with CKD in Bio Me , an electronic medical record-linked biobank. We tested the metabolite association with CKD progression in AASK, Bio Me , and the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study. Results One metabolite, 6-bromotryptophan, was significant in AASK ( P =4.7×10 -5 ) and replicated in Bio Me ( P =5.7×10 -3 ) participants, with lower levels associated with more APOL1 risk alleles. Lower levels of 6-bromotryptophan were associated with CKD progression in AASK and Bio Me participants and in white participants in the MDRD Study, independent of demographics and clinical characteristics, including baseline GFR (adjusted hazard ratio per two-fold higher 6-bromotryptophan level, AASK, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.64 to 0.91; Bio Me , 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.85; MDRD, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.79). The interaction between the APOL1 risk alleles and 6-bromotryptophan was not significant. The identity of 6-bromotryptophan was confirmed in experiments comparing its molecular signature with that of authentic standards of other bromotryptophan isomers. Conclusions Serum 6-bromotryptophan is a consistent and novel risk factor for CKD progression. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 1b

PubMed Central

Cassano-Piché, A; Fan, M; Sabovitch, S; Masino, C; Easty, AC

2012-01-01

Background Minimal research has been conducted into the potential patient safety issues related to administering multiple intravenous (IV) infusions to a single patient. Previous research has highlighted that there are a number of related safety risks. In Phase 1a of this study, an analysis of 2 national incident-reporting databases (Institute for Safe Medical Practices Canada and United States Food and Drug Administration MAUDE) found that a high percentage of incidents associated with the administration of multiple IV infusions resulted in patient harm. Objectives The primary objectives of Phase 1b of this study were to identify safety issues with the potential to cause patient harm stemming from the administration of multiple IV infusions; and to identify how nurses are being educated on key principles required to safely administer multiple IV infusions. Data Sources and Review Methods A field study was conducted at 12 hospital clinical units (sites) across Ontario, and telephone interviews were conducted with program coordinators or instructors from both the Ontario baccalaureate nursing degree programs and the Ontario postgraduate Critical Care Nursing Certificate programs. Data were analyzed using Rasmussen’s 1997 Risk Management Framework and a Health Care Failure Modes and Effects Analysis. Results Twenty-two primary patient safety issues were identified with the potential to directly cause patient harm. Seventeen of these (critical issues) were categorized into 6 themes. A cause-consequence tree was established to outline all possible contributing factors for each critical issue. Clinical recommendations were identified for immediate distribution to, and implementation by, Ontario hospitals. Future investigation efforts were planned for Phase 2 of the study. Limitations This exploratory field study identifies the potential for errors, but does not describe the direct observation of such errors, except in a few cases where errors were observed. Not all

Consumer phase risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats.

PubMed

Yang, Hong; Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Morales, Roberta A; Cates, Sheryl C; Cowen, Peter

2006-02-01

The foodborne disease risk associated with the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes has been the subject of recent efforts in quantitative microbial risk assessment. Building upon one of these efforts undertaken jointly by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the purpose of this work was to expand on the consumer phase of the risk assessment to focus on handling practices in the home. One-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation was used to model variability in growth and cross-contamination of L. monocytogenes during food storage and preparation of deli meats. Simulations approximated that 0.3% of the servings were contaminated with >10(4) CFU/g of L. monocytogenes at the time of consumption. The estimated mean risk associated with the consumption of deli meats for the intermediate-age population was approximately 7 deaths per 10(11) servings. Food handling in homes increased the estimated mean mortality by 10(6)-fold. Of all the home food-handling practices modeled, inadequate storage, particularly refrigeration temperatures, provided the greatest contribution to increased risk. The impact of cross-contamination in the home was considerably less. Adherence to USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service recommendations for consumer handling of ready-to-eat foods substantially reduces the risk of listeriosis.

Can we identify patients at risk of life-threatening allergic reactions to food?

PubMed

Turner, P J; Baumert, J L; Beyer, K; Boyle, R J; Chan, C-H; Clark, A T; Crevel, R W R; DunnGalvin, A; Fernández-Rivas, M; Gowland, M H; Grabenhenrich, L; Hardy, S; Houben, G F; O'B Hourihane, J; Muraro, A; Poulsen, L K; Pyrz, K; Remington, B C; Schnadt, S; van Ree, R; Venter, C; Worm, M; Mills, E N C; Roberts, G; Ballmer-Weber, B K

2016-09-01

Anaphylaxis has been defined as a 'severe, life-threatening generalized or systemic hypersensitivity reaction'. However, data indicate that the vast majority of food-triggered anaphylactic reactions are not life-threatening. Nonetheless, severe life-threatening reactions do occur and are unpredictable. We discuss the concepts surrounding perceptions of severe, life-threatening allergic reactions to food by different stakeholders, with particular reference to the inclusion of clinical severity as a factor in allergy and allergen risk management. We review the evidence regarding factors that might be used to identify those at most risk of severe allergic reactions to food, and the consequences of misinformation in this regard. For example, a significant proportion of food-allergic children also have asthma, yet almost none will experience a fatal food-allergic reaction; asthma is not, in itself, a strong predictor for fatal anaphylaxis. The relationship between dose of allergen exposure and symptom severity is unclear. While dose appears to be a risk factor in at least a subgroup of patients, studies report that individuals with prior anaphylaxis do not have a lower eliciting dose than those reporting previous mild reactions. It is therefore important to consider severity and sensitivity as separate factors, as a highly sensitive individual will not necessarily experience severe symptoms during an allergic reaction. We identify the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to improve our ability to better identify those most at risk of severe food-induced allergic reactions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on each phase characteristics of the whole coal life cycle and their ecological risk assessment-a case of coal in China.

PubMed

Dai, Wenting; Dong, Jihong; Yan, Wanglin; Xu, Jiren

2017-01-01

The paper divided the whole coal life cycle, explained each phase characteristics, and took coal mine in China as a study case to assess the ecological risk in coal utilization phase. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the whole coal life cycle is divided into coal mining, processing, transportation, utilization, and waste disposal. (2) The key points of production organization and characteristics in the five phases have great differences. The coal mining phase is characterized by the damage of the key ecological factors (water, soil, atmosphere, vegetation, etc.) damaged while the coal processing phase by discharging waste. The characteristics in coal transportation phase mainly performance as escaping and migration of atmospheric pollutants. In coal utilization phase, the main characteristics are aggravation of greenhouse effect. The main characteristics of waste disposal phase are accumulation of negative ecological effects on the land. (3) The ecological risk of soil heavy metals is serious in coal utilization phase. The potential ecological hazard coefficients of Pb and As in coal, residue and ash are all lower than 40, presenting low environmental impact on soil; the potential ecological risk coefficients of Cd are higher than 60, nearly half of their potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 160, which presents high environmental pollution impact on soil; Hg's potential ecological risk coefficients are higher than 320, presenting the highest environmental pollution impact on soil; the comprehensive pollution indexes in coal, residue, and ash are relatively high, which means the pollution hazard potential to soil environment is high. (4) The ecological risk of the atmospheric solid suspended matter is relatively strong in coal utilization phase. The ecological risk of Cd and As in primary flue gas is both lower than net flue gas. The geoaccumulation indexes of Cd and Hg in primary flue gas and net flue gas are both higher than 5, presenting

An investigation of low ergonomics risk awareness, among staffs at early product development phase in Malaysia automotive industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, Fazilah Abdul; Razali, Noraini; Najmiyah Jaafar, Nur

2016-02-01

Currently there are many automotive companies still unable to effectively prevent consequences of poor ergonomics in their manufacturing processes. This study purpose is to determine the surrounding factors that influence low ergonomics risk awareness among staffs at early product development phase in Malaysia automotive industry. In this study there are four variables, low ergonomic risk awareness, inappropriate method and tools, tight development schedule and lack of management support. The survey data were gathered from 245 respondents of local automotive companies in Malaysia. The data was analysed through multiple regression and moderated regression using the IBM SPSS software. Study results revealed that low ergonomic risk awareness has influenced by inappropriate method and tool, and tight development schedule. There were positive linear relationships between low ergonomic risk awareness and inappropriate method and tools, and tight development schedule. The more inappropriate method and tools applied; the lower their ergonomic risk awareness. The more tight development schedule is the lower ergonomic risk awareness. The relationship between low ergonomic risk awareness and inappropriate method and tools depends on staff's age, and education level. Furthermore the relationship between low ergonomic risk awareness and tight development schedule depends on staff's working experience and number of project involvement. The main contribution of this paper was identified the number of factors of low ergonomics risk awareness and offers better understanding on ergonomics among researchers and automotive manufacturer's employees during product development process.

Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures.

PubMed

Tobias, J H; Hutchinson, A P; Hunt, L P; McCloskey, E V; Stone, M D; Martin, J C; Thompson, P W; Palferman, T G; Bhalla, A K

2007-01-01

Previous studies have been unable to identify risk factors for prevalent vertebral fractures (VF), which are suitable for use in selection strategies intended to target high-risk sub-groups for diagnostic assessment. However, these studies generally consisted of large epidemiology surveys based on questionnaires and were only able to evaluate a limited number of risk factors. Here, we investigated whether a stronger relationship exists with prevalent VF when conventional risk factors are combined with additional information obtained from detailed one-to-one assessment. Women aged 65-75 registered at four geographically distinct GP practices were invited to participate (n=1,518), of whom 540 attended for assessment as follows: a questionnaire asking about risk factors for osteoporosis such as height loss compared to age 25 and history of non-vertebral fracture (NVF), the get-up-and-go test, Margolis back pain score, measurement of wall-tragus and rib-pelvis distances, and BMD as measured by the distal forearm BMD. A lateral thoraco-lumbar spine X-ray was obtained, which was subsequently scored for the presence of significant vertebral deformities. Of the 509 subjects who underwent spinal radiographs, 37 (7.3%) were found to have one or more VF. Following logistic regression analysis, the four most predictive clinical risk factors for prevalent VF were: height loss (P=0.006), past NVF (P=0.004), history of back pain (P=0.075) and age (P=0.05). BMD was also significantly associated with prevalent VF (P=0.002), but its inclusion did not affect associations with other variables. Factors elicited from detailed one-to-one assessment were not related to the risk of one or more prevalent VFs. The area under ROC curves derived from these regressions, which suggested that models for prevalent VF had modest predictive accuracy, were as follows: 0.68 (BMD), 0.74 (four clinical risk factors above) and 0.78 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Analyses were repeated in relation to the

A support vector machine designed to identify breasts at high risk using multi-probe generated REIS signals: a preliminary assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gur, David; Zheng, Bin; Lederman, Dror; Dhurjaty, Sreeram; Sumkin, Jules; Zuley, Margarita

2010-02-01

A new resonance-frequency based electronic impedance spectroscopy (REIS) system with multi-probes, including one central probe and six external probes that are designed to contact the breast skin in a circular form with a radius of 60 millimeters to the central ("nipple") probe, has been assembled and installed in our breast imaging facility. We are conducting a prospective clinical study to test the performance of this REIS system in identifying younger women (< 50 years old) at higher risk for having or developing breast cancer. In this preliminary analysis, we selected a subset of 100 examinations. Among these, 50 examinations were recommended for a biopsy due to detection of a highly suspicious breast lesion and 50 were determined negative during mammography screening. REIS output signal sweeps that we used to compute an initial feature included both amplitude and phase information representing differences between corresponding (matched) EIS signal values acquired from the left and right breasts. A genetic algorithm was applied to reduce the feature set and optimize a support vector machine (SVM) to classify the REIS examinations into "biopsy recommended" and "non-biopsy" recommended groups. Using the leave-one-case-out testing method, the classification performance as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.816 +/- 0.042. This pilot analysis suggests that the new multi-probe-based REIS system could potentially be used as a risk stratification tool to identify pre-screened young women who are at higher risk of having or developing breast cancer.

Genome-wide association analyses identify new risk variants and the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

PubMed Central

van Rheenen, Wouter; Shatunov, Aleksey; Dekker, Annelot M; McLaughlin, Russell L; Diekstra, Frank P; Pulit, Sara L; van der Spek, Rick A A; Võsa, Urmo; de Jong, Simone; Robinson, Matthew R; Yang, Jian; Fogh, Isabella; van Doormaal, Perry TC; Tazelaar, Gijs H P; Koppers, Max; Blokhuis, Anna M; Sproviero, William; Jones, Ashley R; Kenna, Kevin P; van Eijk, Kristel R; Harschnitz, Oliver; Schellevis, Raymond D; Brands, William J; Medic, Jelena; Menelaou, Androniki; Vajda, Alice; Ticozzi, Nicola; Lin, Kuang; Rogelj, Boris; Vrabec, Katarina; Ravnik-Glavač, Metka; Koritnik, Blaž; Zidar, Janez; Leonardis, Lea; Grošelj, Leja Dolenc; Millecamps, Stéphanie; Salachas, François; Meininger, Vincent; de Carvalho, Mamede; Pinto, Susana; Mora, Jesus S; Rojas-García, Ricardo; Polak, Meraida; Chandran, Siddharthan; Colville, Shuna; Swingler, Robert; Morrison, Karen E; Shaw, Pamela J; Hardy, John; Orrell, Richard W; Pittman, Alan; Sidle, Katie; Fratta, Pietro; Malaspina, Andrea; Topp, Simon; Petri, Susanne; Abdulla, Susanne; Drepper, Carsten; Sendtner, Michael; Meyer, Thomas; Ophoff, Roel A; Staats, Kim A; Wiedau-Pazos, Martina; Lomen-Hoerth, Catherine; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Trojanowski, John Q; Elman, Lauren; McCluskey, Leo; Basak, A Nazli; Tunca, Ceren; Hamzeiy, Hamid; Parman, Yesim; Meitinger, Thomas; Lichtner, Peter; Radivojkov-Blagojevic, Milena; Andres, Christian R; Maurel, Cindy; Bensimon, Gilbert; Landwehrmeyer, Bernhard; Brice, Alexis; Payan, Christine A M; Saker-Delye, Safaa; Dürr, Alexandra; Wood, Nicholas W; Tittmann, Lukas; Lieb, Wolfgang; Franke, Andre; Rietschel, Marcella; Cichon, Sven; Nöthen, Markus M; Amouyel, Philippe; Tzourio, Christophe; Dartigues, Jean-François; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Estrada, Karol; Hofman, Albert; Curtis, Charles; Blauw, Hylke M; van der Kooi, Anneke J; de Visser, Marianne; Goris, An; Weber, Markus; Shaw, Christopher E; Smith, Bradley N; Pansarasa, Orietta; Cereda, Cristina; Bo, Roberto Del; Comi, Giacomo P; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Bertolin, Cinzia; Sorarù, Gianni; Mazzini, Letizia; Pensato, Viviana; Gellera, Cinzia; Tiloca, Cinzia; Ratti, Antonia; Calvo, Andrea; Moglia, Cristina; Brunetti, Maura; Arcuti, Simona; Capozzo, Rosa; Zecca, Chiara; Lunetta, Christian; Penco, Silvana; Riva, Nilo; Padovani, Alessandro; Filosto, Massimiliano; Muller, Bernard; Stuit, Robbert Jan; Blair, Ian; Zhang, Katharine; McCann, Emily P; Fifita, Jennifer A; Nicholson, Garth A; Rowe, Dominic B; Pamphlett, Roger; Kiernan, Matthew C; Grosskreutz, Julian; Witte, Otto W; Ringer, Thomas; Prell, Tino; Stubendorff, Beatrice; Kurth, Ingo; Hübner, Christian A; Leigh, P Nigel; Casale, Federico; Chio, Adriano; Beghi, Ettore; Pupillo, Elisabetta; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Powell, John; Ludolph, Albert C; Weishaupt, Jochen H; Robberecht, Wim; Van Damme, Philip; Franke, Lude; Pers, Tune H; Brown, Robert H; Glass, Jonathan D; Landers, John E; Hardiman, Orla; Andersen, Peter M; Corcia, Philippe; Vourc’h, Patrick; Silani, Vincenzo; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; de Bakker, Paul I W; van Es, Michael A; Pasterkamp, R Jeroen; Lewis, Cathryn M; Breen, Gerome; Al-Chalabi, Ammar; van den Berg, Leonard H; Veldink, Jan H

2017-01-01

To elucidate the genetic architecture of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and find associated loci, we assembled a custom imputation reference panel from whole-genome-sequenced patients with ALS and matched controls (n = 1,861). Through imputation and mixed-model association analysis in 12,577 cases and 23,475 controls, combined with 2,579 cases and 2,767 controls in an independent replication cohort, we fine-mapped a new risk locus on chromosome 21 and identified C21orf2 as a gene associated with ALS risk. In addition, we identified MOBP and SCFD1 as new associated risk loci. We established evidence of ALS being a complex genetic trait with a polygenic architecture. Furthermore, we estimated the SNP-based heritability at 8.5%, with a distinct and important role for low-frequency variants (frequency 1–10%). This study motivates the interrogation of larger samples with full genome coverage to identify rare causal variants that underpin ALS risk. PMID:27455348

GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload

DOE Data Explorer

Teresa E. Jordan

2015-09-30

This submission contains information used to compute the risk factors for the GPFA-AB project (DE-EE0006726). The risk factors are natural reservoir quality, thermal resource quality, potential for induced seismicity, and utilization. The methods used to combine the risk factors included taking the product, sum, and minimum of the four risk factors. The files are divided into images, rasters, shapefiles, and supporting information. The image files show what the raster and shapefiles should look like. The raster files contain the input risk factors, calculation of the scaled risk factors, and calculation of the combined risk factors. The shapefiles include definition of the fairways, definition of the US Census Places, the center of the raster cells, and locations of industries. Supporting information contains details of the calculations or processing used in generating the files. An image of the raster will have the same name except *.png as the file ending instead of *.tif. Images with “fairways” or “industries” added to the name are composed of a raster with the relevant shapefile added. The file About_GPFA-AB_Phase1RiskAnalysisTask5DataUpload.pdf contains information the citation, special use considerations, authorship, etc. More details on each file are given in the spreadsheet “list_of_contents.csv” in the folder “SupportingInfo”. Code used to calculate values is available at https://github.com/calvinwhealton/geothermal_pfa under the folder “combining_metrics”.

Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media.

PubMed

Lv, Meizhen; Li, Ang; Liu, Tianli; Zhu, Tingshao

2015-01-01

Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F 1 = 0.48; t2: F 1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F 1 = 0.41; t2: F 1 = 0.48) on different

Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media

PubMed Central

Liu, Tianli

2015-01-01

Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F1 = 0.48; t2: F1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F1 = 0.41; t2: F1 = 0.48) on different

A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

PubMed

Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p < .001). In the presence of three covariates (gender, race, and age), those classified as being at-risk by the index were 1.8 times more likely than those not classified as such to test positive for an STI (p < .001). Among individuals at risk for STIs, a three-item index predicted testing positive for one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

For presentation at the 45th Annual Symposium of the Society of Toxicology of Canada. The meeting will be held on 4-5 December 2013 at the Ottawa Convention Centre. Toxicokinetics to identify nonlinearities in dose-response and implications for risk assessment. Rory Conolly, Offi...

Towards Risk Based Design for NASA's Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Irem Y.; Barrientos, Francesca; Meshkat, Leila

2004-01-01

This paper describes the concept of Risk Based Design in the context of NASA s low volume, high cost missions. The concept of accounting for risk in the design lifecycle has been discussed and proposed under several research topics, including reliability, risk analysis, optimization, uncertainty, decision-based design, and robust design. This work aims to identify and develop methods to enable and automate a means to characterize and optimize risk, and use risk as a tradeable resource to make robust and reliable decisions, in the context of the uncertain and ambiguous stage of early conceptual design. This paper first presents a survey of the related topics explored in the design research community as they relate to risk based design. Then, a summary of the topics from the NASA-led Risk Colloquium is presented, followed by current efforts within NASA to account for risk in early design. Finally, a list of "risk elements", identified for early-phase conceptual design at NASA, is presented. The purpose is to lay the foundation and develop a roadmap for future work and collaborations for research to eliminate and mitigate these risk elements in early phase design.

Use of plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in young, healthy South Asians.

PubMed

Flowers, Elena; Molina, César; Mathur, Ashish; Reaven, Gerald M

2015-01-01

Prevalence of insulin resistance and associated dyslipidaemia [high triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations] are increased in South Asian individuals; likely contributing to their increased risk of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The plasma concentration ratio of TG/HDL-C has been proposed as a simple way to identify apparently healthy individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk. This study was carried out to compare the cardio-metabolic risk profiles of high-risk South Asian individuals identified by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio versus those with a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. Body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose, insulin, TG, and HDL-C concentrations were determined in apparently healthy men (n=498) and women (n=526). The cardio-metabolic risk profile of "high risk" individuals identified by TG/HDL-C ratios in men (≥ 3.5) and women (≥2.5) was compared to those identified by a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. More concentrations of all cardio-metabolic risk factors were significantly higher in "high risk" groups, identified by either the TG/HDL-C ratio or a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. TG, HDL-C, and insulin concentrations were not significantly different in "high risk" groups identified by either criterion, whereas plasma glucose and blood pressure were higher in those with the metabolic syndrome. Apparently healthy South Asian individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk can be identified using either the TG/HDL-C ratio or the metabolic syndrome criteria. The TG/HDL-C ratio may be used as a simple marker to identify such individuals.

Risk analysis of autonomous vehicles in mixed traffic streams.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-01

The objective of this study was to identify the risks associated with the failure of autonomous vehicles in mixed traffic streams and develop strategies to minimize these risks. Three distinct and interconnected phases were used to conduct the risk a...

Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause.

PubMed

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-08-01

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193) and a retrospective validation (n = 567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high (≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95% CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95% CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

PubMed Central

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-10-01

Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Tice, Jeffrey A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M.; Gard, Charlotte C.; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-01-01

Purpose Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. Methods We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. Results We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P < .001). Conclusion The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. PMID:26282663

GWAS of cerebrospinal fluid tau levels identifies risk variants for Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Cruchaga, Carlos; Kauwe, John S K; Harari, Oscar; Jin, Sheng Chih; Cai, Yefei; Karch, Celeste M; Benitez, Bruno A; Jeng, Amanda T; Skorupa, Tara; Carrell, David; Bertelsen, Sarah; Bailey, Matthew; McKean, David; Shulman, Joshua M; De Jager, Philip L; Chibnik, Lori; Bennett, David A; Arnold, Steve E; Harold, Denise; Sims, Rebecca; Gerrish, Amy; Williams, Julie; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Lee, Virginia M-Y; Shaw, Leslie M; Trojanowski, John Q; Haines, Jonathan L; Mayeux, Richard; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Farrer, Lindsay A; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Peskind, Elaine R; Galasko, Douglas; Fagan, Anne M; Holtzman, David M; Morris, John C; Goate, Alison M

2013-04-24

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau, tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 (ptau), and Aβ₄₂ are established biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and have been used as quantitative traits for genetic analyses. We performed the largest genome-wide association study for cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau/ptau levels published to date (n = 1,269), identifying three genome-wide significant loci for CSF tau and ptau: rs9877502 (p = 4.89 × 10⁻⁹ for tau) located at 3q28 between GEMC1 and OSTN, rs514716 (p = 1.07 × 10⁻⁸ and p = 3.22 × 10⁻⁹ for tau and ptau, respectively), located at 9p24.2 within GLIS3 and rs6922617 (p = 3.58 × 10⁻⁸ for CSF ptau) at 6p21.1 within the TREM gene cluster, a region recently reported to harbor rare variants that increase AD risk. In independent data sets, rs9877502 showed a strong association with risk for AD, tangle pathology, and global cognitive decline (p = 2.67 × 10⁻⁴, 0.039, 4.86 × 10⁻⁵, respectively) illustrating how this endophenotype-based approach can be used to identify new AD risk loci. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fine-Mapping of Common Genetic Variants Associated with Colorectal Tumor Risk Identified Potential Functional Variants

PubMed Central

Gala, Manish; Abecasis, Goncalo; Bezieau, Stephane; Brenner, Hermann; Butterbach, Katja; Caan, Bette J.; Carlson, Christopher S.; Casey, Graham; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Conti, David V.; Curtis, Keith R.; Duggan, David; Gallinger, Steven; Haile, Robert W.; Harrison, Tabitha A.; Hayes, Richard B.; Hoffmeister, Michael; Hopper, John L.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Küry, Sébastien; Le Marchand, Loic; Leal, Suzanne M.; Newcomb, Polly A.; Nickerson, Deborah A.; Potter, John D.; Schoen, Robert E.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Seminara, Daniela; Slattery, Martha L.; Hsu, Li; Chan, Andrew T.; White, Emily; Berndt, Sonja I.; Peters, Ulrike

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with colorectal cancer risk. These SNPs may tag correlated variants with biological importance. Fine-mapping around GWAS loci can facilitate detection of functional candidates and additional independent risk variants. We analyzed 11,900 cases and 14,311 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colon Cancer Family Registry. To fine-map genomic regions containing all known common risk variants, we imputed high-density genetic data from the 1000 Genomes Project. We tested single-variant associations with colorectal tumor risk for all variants spanning genomic regions 250-kb upstream or downstream of 31 GWAS-identified SNPs (index SNPs). We queried the University of California, Santa Cruz Genome Browser to examine evidence for biological function. Index SNPs did not show the strongest association signals with colorectal tumor risk in their respective genomic regions. Bioinformatics analysis of SNPs showing smaller P-values in each region revealed 21 functional candidates in 12 loci (5q31.1, 8q24, 11q13.4, 11q23, 12p13.32, 12q24.21, 14q22.2, 15q13, 18q21, 19q13.1, 20p12.3, and 20q13.33). We did not observe evidence of additional independent association signals in GWAS-identified regions. Our results support the utility of integrating data from comprehensive fine-mapping with expanding publicly available genomic databases to help clarify GWAS associations and identify functional candidates that warrant more onerous laboratory follow-up. Such efforts may aid the eventual discovery of disease-causing variant(s). PMID:27379672

Screening and prioritisation of chemical risks from metal mining operations, identifying exposure media of concern.

PubMed

Pan, Jilang; Oates, Christopher J; Ihlenfeld, Christian; Plant, Jane A; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2010-04-01

Metals have been central to the development of human civilisation from the Bronze Age to modern times, although in the past, metal mining and smelting have been the cause of serious environmental pollution with the potential to harm human health. Despite problems from artisanal mining in some developing countries, modern mining to Western standards now uses the best available mining technology combined with environmental monitoring, mitigation and remediation measures to limit emissions to the environment. This paper develops risk screening and prioritisation methods previously used for contaminated land on military and civilian sites and engineering systems for the analysis and prioritisation of chemical risks from modern metal mining operations. It uses hierarchical holographic modelling and multi-criteria decision making to analyse and prioritise the risks from potentially hazardous inorganic chemical substances released by mining operations. A case study of an active platinum group metals mine in South Africa is used to demonstrate the potential of the method. This risk-based methodology for identifying, filtering and ranking mining-related environmental and human health risks can be used to identify exposure media of greatest concern to inform risk management. It also provides a practical decision-making tool for mine acquisition and helps to communicate risk to all members of mining operation teams.

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

Identifying Risk Factors for Elder Falls in Geriatric Rehabilitation in Israel.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Heyman, Neomi; Ben Israel, Joshua

2016-01-01

To identify risk factors for elder falls in a geriatric rehabilitation center in Israel. Retrospective chart review study. Four hundred and twelve medical records of inpatients in geriatric rehabilitation were retrospectively analyzed to compare between elders who sustained falls and those who did not. Of elders hospitalized during this year, 14% sustained falls. Fallers included a high proportion of males, with little comorbidity, not obese, and cardiovascular patients. Falls occurred frequently during patients' first week at the facility, mostly during the daytime. The falls occurred frequently in patients' rooms, and a common scenario was a fall during transition. The research findings single out patients who are allegedly at a lower risk of falls than more complex patients. Caregivers in geriatric rehabilitation settings should pay attention to patients who are allegedly at a lower risk of falls than more complex patients, and to cardiovascular patients in particular. © 2014 Association of Rehabilitation Nurses.

Identifying High-Risk Patients without Labeled Training Data: Anomaly Detection Methodologies to Predict Adverse Outcomes

PubMed Central

Syed, Zeeshan; Saeed, Mohammed; Rubinfeld, Ilan

2010-01-01

For many clinical conditions, only a small number of patients experience adverse outcomes. Developing risk stratification algorithms for these conditions typically requires collecting large volumes of data to capture enough positive and negative for training. This process is slow, expensive, and may not be appropriate for new phenomena. In this paper, we explore different anomaly detection approaches to identify high-risk patients as cases that lie in sparse regions of the feature space. We study three broad categories of anomaly detection methods: classification-based, nearest neighbor-based, and clustering-based techniques. When evaluated on data from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), these methods were able to successfully identify patients at an elevated risk of mortality and rare morbidities following inpatient surgical procedures. PMID:21347083

Identifying at-risk children at school entry: the usefulness of multibehavioral problem profiles.

PubMed

Flanagan, Kelly S; Bierman, Karen L; Kam, Chi-Ming

2003-09-01

Found that 1st-grade teacher ratings of aggressive, hyperactive-inattentive, and low levels of prosocial behaviors made unique contributions to the prediction of school outcomes (measured 2 years later) for 755 children. Person-oriented analyses compared the predictive utility of 5 screening strategies based on child problem profiles to identify children at risk for school problems. A broad screening strategy, in which children with elevations in any 1 of the 3 behavior problem dimensions were identified as "at-risk," showed lower specificity but superior sensitivity, odds ratios, and overall accuracy in the prediction of school outcomes than the other screening strategies that were more narrowly focused or were based on a total problem score. Results are discussed in terms of implications for the screening and design of preventive interventions.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

Electronic Monitoring of Medication Adherence in Early Maintenance Phase Treatment for Pediatric Leukemia and Lymphoma: Identifying Patterns of Nonadherence

PubMed Central

Drotar, Dennis; Alderfer, Melissa; Donewar, Crista Wetherington; Ewing, Linda; Katz, Ernest R.; Muriel, Anna

2015-01-01

Objective To describe patterns of treatment adherence to early maintenance phase therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and lymphoblastic lymphoma (LBL). Methods Using an objective observational method (electronic monitoring), adherence was examined for 139 patients aged 7–19 years diagnosed with ALL or LBL across 6 centers. Results The mean adherence percentage was 86.2%. Adherence rates declined over the 1-month of follow-up to 83%. 3 linear trajectories of 6-mercaptopurine adherence were identified: (1) exemplary adherence (n = 99): Averaging nearly 100%; (2) deteriorating (n = 23): Adherence decreased from 100 to 60%; and (3) chronically poor adherence (n = 9): Averaging 40%. Conclusions Adherence promotion interventions might be tailored to subgroups of patients who demonstrated problematic patterns of treatment adherence that could place them at risk for relapse. This research demonstrates the importance of using objective real-time measures of medication adherence for measuring and documenting adherence patterns. PMID:24365698

Step 7: Choose the "Best" Risk Management Alternative

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The ultimate purpose of the SRM tactical phase is to choose how to manage risk. Prior to this stage, we determined the sources of risk, identified the relevant management actions and estimated the likelihood of all known outcomes. Next, we combine this information with your personal risk preference...

Data-driven risk identification in phase III clinical trials using central statistical monitoring.

PubMed

Timmermans, Catherine; Venet, David; Burzykowski, Tomasz

2016-02-01

Our interest lies in quality control for clinical trials, in the context of risk-based monitoring (RBM). We specifically study the use of central statistical monitoring (CSM) to support RBM. Under an RBM paradigm, we claim that CSM has a key role to play in identifying the "risks to the most critical data elements and processes" that will drive targeted oversight. In order to support this claim, we first see how to characterize the risks that may affect clinical trials. We then discuss how CSM can be understood as a tool for providing a set of data-driven key risk indicators (KRIs), which help to organize adaptive targeted monitoring. Several case studies are provided where issues in a clinical trial have been identified thanks to targeted investigation after the identification of a risk using CSM. Using CSM to build data-driven KRIs helps to identify different kinds of issues in clinical trials. This ability is directly linked with the exhaustiveness of the CSM approach and its flexibility in the definition of the risks that are searched for when identifying the KRIs. In practice, a CSM assessment of the clinical database seems essential to ensure data quality. The atypical data patterns found in some centers and variables are seen as KRIs under a RBM approach. Targeted monitoring or data management queries can be used to confirm whether the KRIs point to an actual issue or not.

Sexual harassment: identifying risk factors.

PubMed

O'Hare, E A; O'Donohue, W

1998-12-01

A new model of the etiology of sexual harassment, the four-factor model, is presented and compared with several models of sexual harassment including the biological model, the organizational model, the sociocultural model, and the sex role spillover model. A number of risk factors associated with sexually harassing behavior are examined within the framework of the four-factor model of sexual harassment. These include characteristics of the work environment (e.g., sexist attitudes among co-workers, unprofessional work environment, skewed sex ratios in the workplace, knowledge of grievance procedures for sexual harassment incidents) as well as personal characteristics of the subject (e.g., physical attractiveness, job status, sex-role). Subjects were 266 university female faculty, staff, and students who completed the Sexual Experience Questionnaire to assess the experience of sexual harassment and a questionnaire designed to assess the risk factors stated above. Results indicated that the four-factor model is a better predictor of sexual harassment than the alternative models. The risk factors most strongly associated with sexual harassment were an unprofessional environment in the workplace, sexist atmosphere, and lack of knowledge about the organization's formal grievance procedures.

Self-Identified Sexual Orientation and Sexual Risk Behavior Among HIV-Infected Latino Males.

PubMed

Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Szlachta, Alaina

2016-01-01

The HIV testing, disclosure, and sexual practices of ethnic minority men suggest that addressing sexual risk behavior and the underlying reasons for not receiving HIV testing or disclosing HIV-infection status-unique to differing populations-would improve public health interventions. Descriptive behaviors and underlying perspectives reported in our study suggest that public health interventions for HIV-infected Latino men who self-identify as heterosexual should explicitly identify substance use, needle sharing, and unprotected sex to current partners as behaviors placing both oneself and one's partners at high risk for contracting HIV. However, diversity of sexual behavior among gay, straight, and bisexual HIV-infected Latino men in our study ultimately suggested that clinicians should not rely on simplistic conceptions of sexuality in assessment of self-care needs. Care in presentation and discussion of self-identified sexual preference and sexual behavior is indicated, as these do not determine actual sexual orientation or behavior and vice versa. Copyright © 2016 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying At-Risk Individuals for Insomnia Using the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test

PubMed Central

Kalmbach, David A.; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J. Todd; Drake, Christopher L.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: A primary focus of the National Institute of Mental Health's current strategic plan is “predicting” who is at risk for disease. As such, the current investigation examined the utility of premorbid sleep reactivity in identifying a specific and manageable population at elevated risk for future insomnia. Methods: A community-based sample of adults (n = 2,892; 59.3% female; 47.9 ± 13.3 y old) with no lifetime history of insomnia or depression completed web-based surveys across three annual assessments. Participants reported parental history of insomnia, demographic characteristics, sleep reactivity on the Ford Insomnia in Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and insomnia symptoms. DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were used to determine insomnia classification. Results: Baseline FIRST scores were used to predict incident insomnia at 1-y follow-up. Two clinically meaningful FIRST cutoff values were identified: FIRST ≥ 16 (sensitivity 77%; specificity 50%; odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, P < 0.001); and FIRST ≥ 18 (sensitivity 62%; specificity 67%; OR = 3.32, P < 0.001). Notably, both FIRST cut-points outperformed known maternal (OR = 1.49–1.59, P < 0.01) and paternal history (P = NS) in predicting insomnia onset, even after controlling for stress exposure and demographic characteristics. Of the incident cases, insomniacs with highly reactive sleep systems reported longer sleep onset latencies (FIRST ≥ 16: 65 min; FIRST ≥ 18: 68 min) than participants with nonreactive insomnia (FIRST < 16: 37 min; FIRST < 18: 44 min); these groups did not differ on any other sleep parameters. Conclusions: The current study established a cost- and time-effective strategy for identifying individuals at elevated risk for insomnia based on trait sleep reactivity. The FIRST accurately identifies a focused target population in which the psychobiological processes complicit in insomnia onset and progression can be better investigated, thus improving future preventive efforts

Poverty, AIDS and child health: identifying highest-risk children in South Africa.

PubMed

Cluver, Lucie; Boyes, Mark; Orkin, Mark; Sherr, Lorraine

2013-10-11

Identifying children at the highest risk of negative health effects is a prerequisite to effective public health policies in Southern Africa. A central ongoing debate is whether poverty, orphanhood or parental AIDS most reliably indicates child health risks. Attempts to address this key question have been constrained by a lack of data allowing distinction of AIDS-specific parental death or morbidity from other causes of orphanhood and chronic illness. To examine whether household poverty, orphanhood and parental illness (by AIDS or other causes) independently or interactively predict child health, developmental and HIV-infection risks. We interviewed 6 002 children aged 10 - 17 years in 2009 - 2011, using stratified random sampling in six urban and rural sites across three South African provinces. Outcomes were child mental health risks, educational risks and HIV-infection risks. Regression models that controlled for socio-demographic co-factors tested potential impacts and interactions of poverty, AIDS-specific and other orphanhood and parental illness status. Household poverty independently predicted child mental health and educational risks, AIDS orphanhood independently predicted mental health risks and parental AIDS illness independently predicted mental health, educational and HIV-infection risks. Interaction effects of poverty with AIDS orphanhood and parental AIDS illness were found across all outcomes. No effects, or interactions with poverty, were shown by AIDS-unrelated orphanhood or parental illness. The identification of children at highest risk requires recognition and measurement of both poverty and parental AIDS. This study shows negative impacts of poverty and AIDS-specific vulnerabilities distinct from orphanhood and adult illness more generally. Additionally, effects of interaction between family AIDS and poverty suggest that, where these co-exist, children are at highest risk of all.

Implementation of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability over two phases.

PubMed

Kroppan, Erik; Nonstad, Kåre; Iversen, Runar Busch; Søndenaa, Erik

2017-01-01

Over the last decade, the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has provided a strong evidence base to predict a range of problem behaviors. The implementation of START and adaptation of the services to the use of START have so far been sparsely described in the literature. The purpose of this study was to describe the continuation and the interdisciplinarity of risk assessments through the two phases. Over a period of 10 years, the forensic mental health services at Brøset has implemented START in two phases: initially with implementing the instrument (2005-2009) and secondarily by customizing the instrument to everyday treatment and planning (since 2009). This implementation was based on data from 887 START assessments for 181 patients over a decade (2005-2015). The results showed that the number of START assessments has been stable throughout the past 10 years and the interval between the ratings has decreased significantly ( p <0.05). The involvement by diversity of professionals has increased significantly over the two implementation phases. This study also addressed the continuity and organization of the implementation process and presented an overview of how START has been widespread in the service through treatment. The results showed an increased multidisciplinary participation and a continuing rate of assessments as the implementation progressed from assessment to a combined assessment-treatment phase.

Implementation of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability over two phases

PubMed Central

Kroppan, Erik; Nonstad, Kåre; Iversen, Runar Busch; Søndenaa, Erik

2017-01-01

Background Over the last decade, the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) has provided a strong evidence base to predict a range of problem behaviors. The implementation of START and adaptation of the services to the use of START have so far been sparsely described in the literature. The purpose of this study was to describe the continuation and the interdisciplinarity of risk assessments through the two phases. Methods Over a period of 10 years, the forensic mental health services at Brøset has implemented START in two phases: initially with implementing the instrument (2005–2009) and secondarily by customizing the instrument to everyday treatment and planning (since 2009). This implementation was based on data from 887 START assessments for 181 patients over a decade (2005–2015). Results The results showed that the number of START assessments has been stable throughout the past 10 years and the interval between the ratings has decreased significantly (p<0.05). The involvement by diversity of professionals has increased significantly over the two implementation phases. Conclusion This study also addressed the continuity and organization of the implementation process and presented an overview of how START has been widespread in the service through treatment. The results showed an increased multidisciplinary participation and a continuing rate of assessments as the implementation progressed from assessment to a combined assessment–treatment phase. PMID:28860799

Identifying the women at risk of antenatal anxiety and depression: A systematic review.

PubMed

Biaggi, Alessandra; Conroy, Susan; Pawlby, Susan; Pariante, Carmine M

2016-02-01

Pregnancy is a time of increased vulnerability for the development of anxiety and depression. This systematic review aims to identify the main risk factors involved in the onset of antenatal anxiety and depression. A systematic literature analysis was conducted, using PubMed, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library. Original papers were included if they were written in English and published between 1st January 2003 and 31st August 2015, while literature reviews and meta-analyses were consulted regardless of publication date. A final number of 97 papers were selected. The most relevant factors associated with antenatal depression or anxiety were: lack of partner or of social support; history of abuse or of domestic violence; personal history of mental illness; unplanned or unwanted pregnancy; adverse events in life and high perceived stress; present/past pregnancy complications; and pregnancy loss. The review does not include a meta-analysis, which may have added additional information about the differential impact of each risk factor. Moreover, it does not specifically examine factors that may influence different types of anxiety disorders, or the recurrence or persistence of depression or anxiety from pregnancy to the postpartum period. The results show the complex aetiology of antenatal depression and anxiety. The administration of a screening tool to identify women at risk of anxiety and depression during pregnancy should be universal practice in order to promote the long-term wellbeing of mothers and babies, and the knowledge of specific risk factors may help creating such screening tool targeting women at higher risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying and Qualifying the Preventive Effects of Acute-Phase Cognitive Therapy: Pathways to Personalizing Care

PubMed Central

Jarrett, Robin B.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Vittengl, Jeffrey R.; Clark, Lee Anna; Thase, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine the extent to which prospectively identified responders to cognitive therapy (CT) for recurrent major depressive disorder (MDD) hypothesized to be lower risk show significantly less relapse/recurrence than treated higher risk counterparts across 32 months. Method Outpatients (N = 523), aged 18–70, with recurrent MDD received 12–14 weeks of CT. The last seven consecutive scores from the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD-17), were used to stratify/define responders (n = 290) into lower (seven HRSD-17 scores of ≤ 6; n = 49; 17%) and higher risk (n = 241; 83%). The lower risk entered the 32-month follow-up. Higher risk patients were randomized to 8 months of continuation-phase CT or clinical management plus double-blind fluoxetine or pill placebo, with a 24-month follow-up. Results Lower risk patients were significantly less likely to relapse over the first 8 months compared to higher risk (Kaplan-Meier [KM] estimates (i.e., 4.9%=lower risk; 22.1%= higher risk; log-rank χ2 = 6.83, p = .009). This increased risk was attenuated, but not completely neutralized, by active continuation-phase therapy. Over the subsequent 24 months, the lower and higher risk groups did not differ in relapse/recurrence risk. Conclusions Rapid and sustained acute-phase CT remission identifies responders who do not require continuation-phase treatment to prevent relapse (i.e., return of an index episode). To prevent recurrence (i.e., new episodes), however, strategic allocation and more frequent “dosing” of CT and/or targeted maintenance-phase treatments may be required. Longitudinal follow-up is recommended. PMID:26654211

Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

PubMed

Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

2015-05-01

Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence Report: Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conkin, Johnny; Norcross, Jason R.; Wessel, James H. III; Abercromby, Andrew F. J.; Klein, Jill S.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) is identified by the NASA Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space, as defined in the HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD). This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. Given that tissue inert gas partial pressure is often greater than ambient pressure during phases of a mission, primarily during extravehicular activity (EVA), there is a possibility that decompression sickness may occur.

Meta-Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Studies for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Identifies Four New Disease-Specific Risk Loci

PubMed Central

Tromp, Gerard; Kuivaniemi, Helena; Gretarsdottir, Solveig; Baas, Annette F.; Giusti, Betti; Strauss, Ewa; van‘t Hof, Femke N.G.; Webb, Thomas R.; Erdman, Robert; Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Elmore, James R.; Verma, Anurag; Pendergrass, Sarah; Kullo, Iftikhar J.; Ye, Zi; Peissig, Peggy L.; Gottesman, Omri; Verma, Shefali S.; Malinowski, Jennifer; Rasmussen-Torvik, Laura J.; Borthwick, Kenneth M.; Smelser, Diane T.; Crosslin, David R.; de Andrade, Mariza; Ryer, Evan J.; McCarty, Catherine A.; Böttinger, Erwin P.; Pacheco, Jennifer A.; Crawford, Dana C.; Carrell, David S.; Gerhard, Glenn S.; Franklin, David P.; Carey, David J.; Phillips, Victoria L.; Williams, Michael J.A.; Wei, Wenhua; Blair, Ross; Hill, Andrew A.; Vasudevan, Thodor M.; Lewis, David R.; Thomson, Ian A.; Krysa, Jo; Hill, Geraldine B.; Roake, Justin; Merriman, Tony R.; Oszkinis, Grzegorz; Galora, Silvia; Saracini, Claudia; Abbate, Rosanna; Pulli, Raffaele; Pratesi, Carlo; Saratzis, Athanasios; Verissimo, Ana R.; Bumpstead, Suzannah; Badger, Stephen A.; Clough, Rachel E.; Cockerill, Gillian; Hafez, Hany; Scott, D. Julian A.; Futers, T. Simon; Romaine, Simon P.R.; Bridge, Katherine; Griffin, Kathryn J.; Bailey, Marc A.; Smith, Alberto; Thompson, Matthew M.; van Bockxmeer, Frank M.; Matthiasson, Stefan E.; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Blankensteijn, Jan D.; Teijink, Joep A.W.; Wijmenga, Cisca; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Lindholt, Jes S.; Hughes, Anne; Bradley, Declan T.; Stirrups, Kathleen; Golledge, Jonathan; Norman, Paul E.; Powell, Janet T.; Humphries, Steve E.; Hamby, Stephen E.; Goodall, Alison H.; Nelson, Christopher P.; Sakalihasan, Natzi; Courtois, Audrey; Ferrell, Robert E.; Eriksson, Per; Folkersen, Lasse; Franco-Cereceda, Anders; Eicher, John D.; Johnson, Andrew D.; Betsholtz, Christer; Ruusalepp, Arno; Franzén, Oscar; Schadt, Eric E.; Björkegren, Johan L.M.; Lipovich, Leonard; Drolet, Anne M.; Verhoeven, Eric L.; Zeebregts, Clark J.; Geelkerken, Robert H.; van Sambeek, Marc R.; van Sterkenburg, Steven M.; de Vries, Jean-Paul; Stefansson, Kari; Thompson, John R.; de Bakker, Paul I.W.; Deloukas, Panos; Sayers, Robert D.; Harrison, Seamus C.; van Rij, Andre M.; Samani, Nilesh J.

2017-01-01

Rationale: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a complex disease with both genetic and environmental risk factors. Together, 6 previously identified risk loci only explain a small proportion of the heritability of AAA. Objective: To identify additional AAA risk loci using data from all available genome-wide association studies. Methods and Results: Through a meta-analysis of 6 genome-wide association study data sets and a validation study totaling 10 204 cases and 107 766 controls, we identified 4 new AAA risk loci: 1q32.3 (SMYD2), 13q12.11 (LINC00540), 20q13.12 (near PCIF1/MMP9/ZNF335), and 21q22.2 (ERG). In various database searches, we observed no new associations between the lead AAA single nucleotide polymorphisms and coronary artery disease, blood pressure, lipids, or diabetes mellitus. Network analyses identified ERG, IL6R, and LDLR as modifiers of MMP9, with a direct interaction between ERG and MMP9. Conclusions: The 4 new risk loci for AAA seem to be specific for AAA compared with other cardiovascular diseases and related traits suggesting that traditional cardiovascular risk factor management may only have limited value in preventing the progression of aneurysmal disease. PMID:27899403

Genetic polymorphisms in phase I and phase II enzymes and breast cancer risk associated with menopausal hormone therapy in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

2010-01-01

Recent findings indicate a greater risk of postmenopausal breast cancer with estrogen-progestagen therapy than estrogen monotherapy, and more so for current than past use. Few studies have examined individual genetic susceptibility to the effects of menopausal hormone therapy. We used two population-based case-control studies with 3,155 postmenopausal breast cancer patients and 5,496 controls to evaluate modification of breast cancer risk associated with duration of hormone use by genes involved in hormone metabolism and detoxification. Twenty-eight polymorphisms in eight genes of phase I (CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP1B1, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP3A7) and nine genes of phase II enzymes (COMT, GSTM1, GSTM3, GSTP1, GSTT1, SULT1A1, UGT1A1, UGT1A6, UGT2B7) were genotyped. The risk associated with duration of use of combined estrogen-progestagen therapy was significantly modified by genetic polymorphisms located in CYP1B1, GSTP1, and GSTT1. In homozygote carriers of the CYP1B1_142_G and the CYP1B1_355 _T variant alleles, adjusted odds ratios (OR) per year of use were 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.09) and 1.06 (95% CI = 1.03-1.09), respectively, compared with 1.02 (95% CI = 1.01-1.03) in non-carriers of either polymorphism (p(interaction) = 0.01). Carriers of the functional GSTT1 allele and the GSTP1_341_T allele were at significantly higher risks associated with hormone use compared with non-carriers (p(interaction) = 0.0001 and 0.02). CYP1A1_2452_C>A significantly reduced the risk associated with duration of use of estrogen monotherapy (p(interaction) = 0.01). The finding regarding GSTT1 was still statistically significant after corrections for multiple comparisons. Postmenopausal breast cancer risk associated with hormone therapy may be modified by genetically determined variations in phase I and II enzymes involved in steroid hormone metabolism.

[Identifying clinical risk factors in recurrent idiopathic deep venous thrombosis].

PubMed

Del Río Solá, M Lourdes; González Fajardo, José Antonio; Vaquero Puerta, Carlos

2016-03-18

Oral anticoagulant therapy for more than 6 months in patients with an episode of idiopathic thromboembolic disease is controversial. The objective was to determine predictive clinical signs that identify patients at increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic deep vein thrombosis (DVT). A prospective study which included 306 consecutive patients with a first episode of idiopathic DVT from June 2012 to June 2014. Predictor variables of recurrent thromboembolic disease and episodes of recurrence during follow-up of the patients (28.42 months) were collected. We performed a multivariate analysis to analyze possible predictors (P<.20) and an analysis of Kaplan-Meier to establish mean recurrence-free survival. We identified 91 episodes of residual vein thrombosis on follow-up of the patients (37.5% men and 20.3% women) (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.25-2.71). In the Cox regression analysis stratified by gender, variables showed significant presence of hyperechoic thrombus (P=.001) in males, and persistence of residual thrombus in women (P=.046). The mean recurrence-free survival was shorter in both groups. The presence of echogenic thrombus in men and the existence of residual DVT in women were 2 clinical signs associated with increased risk of thromboembolic recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy for 6 months after an episode of idiopathic DVT in our study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

High-Risk Carotid Plaques Identified by CT-Angiogram can Predict Acute Myocardial Infarction

PubMed Central

Mosleh, Wassim; Adib, Keenan; Natdanai, Punnanithinont; Carmona-Rubio, Andres; Karki, Roshan; Paily, Jacienta; Ahmed, Mohamed Abdel-Aal; Vakkalanka, Sujit; Madam, Narasa; Gudleski, Gregory D; Chung, Charles; Sharma, Umesh C

2016-01-01

Purpose Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. Methods We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign (NRS). Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Results Patients with speckled (<3mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year compared to patients without [adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26 to 73.42, P= 0.001]. Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within one year than patients without [adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19 to 8.50, P= 0.021]. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100% and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Conclusions Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events. PMID:27866279

High-risk carotid plaques identified by CT-angiogram can predict acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Mosleh, Wassim; Adib, Keenan; Natdanai, Punnanithinont; Carmona-Rubio, Andres; Karki, Roshan; Paily, Jacienta; Ahmed, Mohamed Abdel-Aal; Vakkalanka, Sujit; Madam, Narasa; Gudleski, Gregory D; Chung, Charles; Sharma, Umesh C

2017-04-01

Prior studies identified the incremental value of non-invasive imaging by CT-angiogram (CTA) to detect high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaques. Due to their superficial locations, larger calibers and motion-free imaging, the carotid arteries provide the best anatomic access for the non-invasive characterization of atherosclerotic plaques. We aim to assess the ability of predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or acute myocardial infarction (MI) based on high-risk carotid plaque features identified by CTA. We retrospectively examined carotid CTAs of 492 patients that presented with acute stroke to characterize the atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries and examined development of acute MI and obstructive CAD within 12-months. Carotid lesions were defined in terms of calcifications (large or speckled), presence of low-attenuation plaques, positive remodeling, and presence of napkin ring sign. Adjusted relative risks were calculated for each plaque features. Patients with speckled (<3 mm) calcifications and/or larger calcifications on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year compared to patients without (adjusted RR of 7.51, 95%CI 1.26-73.42, P = 0.001). Patients with low-attenuation plaques on CTA had a higher risk of developing an MI and/or obstructive CAD within 1 year than patients without (adjusted RR of 2.73, 95%CI 1.19-8.50, P = 0.021). Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques also portended higher sensitivity (100 and 79.17%, respectively) for the development of acute MI. Presence of carotid calcifications and low-attenuation plaques can predict the risk of developing acute MI and/or obstructive CAD within 12-months. Given their high sensitivity, their absence can reliably exclude 12-month events.

ASXL1 and BIM germ line variants predict response and identify CML patients with the greatest risk of imatinib failure

PubMed Central

Marum, Justine E.; Yeung, David T.; Purins, Leanne; Reynolds, John; Parker, Wendy T.; Stangl, Doris; Wang, Paul P. S.; Price, David J.; Tuke, Jonathan; Schreiber, Andreas W.; Scott, Hamish S.; Hughes, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

Scoring systems used at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), such as Sokal risk, provide important response prediction for patients treated with imatinib. However, the sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems could be enhanced for improved identification of patients with the highest risk. We aimed to identify genomic predictive biomarkers of imatinib response at diagnosis to aid selection of first-line therapy. Targeted amplicon sequencing was performed to determine the germ line variant profile in 517 and 79 patients treated with first-line imatinib and nilotinib, respectively. The Sokal score and ASXL1 rs4911231 and BIM rs686952 variants were independent predictors of early molecular response (MR), major MR, deep MRs (MR4 and MR4.5), and failure-free survival (FFS) with imatinib treatment. In contrast, the ASXL1 and BIM variants did not consistently predict MR or FFS with nilotinib treatment. In the imatinib-treated cohort, neither Sokal or the ASXL1 and BIM variants predicted overall survival (OS) or progression to accelerated phase or blast crisis (AP/BC). The Sokal risk score was combined with the ASXL1 and BIM variants in a classification tree model to predict imatinib response. The model distinguished an ultra-high-risk group, representing 10% of patients, that predicted inferior OS (88% vs 97%; P = .041), progression to AP/BC (12% vs 1%; P = .034), FFS (P < .001), and MRs (P < .001). The ultra-high-risk patients may be candidates for more potent or combination first-line therapy. These data suggest that germ line genetic variation contributes to the heterogeneity of response to imatinib and may contribute to a prognostic risk score that allows early optimization of therapy. PMID:29296778

Plasma triglyceride determination can identify increased risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes: a hypothesis.

PubMed

Armato, J; Ruby, R; Reaven, G

2015-04-01

To evaluate the ability of plasma triglyceride (TG) measurements to identify statin-treated persons at accentuated risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The experimental population consisted of nondiabetic, statin-treated patients (n = 469), classified as being at high risk for T2DM, subdivided on the basis of a plasma TG concentration of 1.7 mmol/L. Comparisons were made of demographic characteristics, concentrations of fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c, and hs-CRP, oral glucose tolerance tests, estimates of insulin action and secretion, and lipid/lipoprotein profiles. Despite similar fasting glucose and HbA1c concentrations, patients with elevated TG concentrations displayed markers of increased risk of T2DM (insulin resistance and compensatory hyperinsulinemia), more adverse lipid/lipoprotein profiles, and increased prevalence of abnormal hs-CRP values. These findings demonstrate that plasma TG concentrations ≥ 1.7 mmol/L identified a subset of individuals at enhanced risk of developing statin-induced diabetes within a population classified prior to statin treatment as being at high risk of T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Older adults at high risk of falling need more time for anticipatory postural adjustment in the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation.

PubMed

Uemura, Kazuki; Yamada, Minoru; Nagai, Koutatsu; Ichihashi, Noriaki

2011-08-01

Obstacles are a common cause of falls among older adults. Anticipatory motor planning for obstacle negotiation must be completed during the precrossing phase in order to step over the obstacle safely. This cognitive load may affect anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) in older adults at high risk of falling. This study explored the effect of obstacle negotiation on APA during gait initiation in older adults at high risk of falling. Seventy-six elderly volunteers (mean age: 80.5 [7.6 years]) from the community participated in this study. Participants performed gait initiation tasks from a starting position on a force platform under the following two conditions: (1) unobstructed (smooth walkway) and (2) obstructed (walkway with an obstacle placed at 1 m from the initial position). The reaction and APA phases were measured from the data of center of pressure. Each participant was categorized as a high-risk or a low-risk individual according to the presence or absence of a fall experience within the past year. High-risk participants had significantly longer APA phases than low-risk participants under the obstructed condition even though there was no significant difference between groups under the unobstructed condition. Reaction phase was not significantly different between groups in either the unobstructed or the obstructed condition. Motor performance deterioration occurred in high-risk participants in the beginning of the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation. A slow and inefficient APA at the precrossing phase of obstacle negotiation might be one of the causes of accidental falls.

Identifying Trajectories of Adolescents' Depressive Phenomena: An Examination of Early Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazza, James J.; Fleming, Charles B.; Abbott, Robert D.; Haggerty, Kevin P.; Catalano, Richard F.

2010-01-01

Few studies have examined risk factors of childhood and early adolescent depressive symptomatology trajectories. This study examined self-report depressive symptomatology across a 6-year time period from 2nd to 8th grade to identify latent groups of individuals with similar patterns of depressive phenomena in a sample of 951 children (440 girls,…

Predicting disease risk, identifying stakeholders, and informing control strategies: A case study of anthrax in Montana

PubMed Central

Morris, Lillian R.; Blackburn, Jason K.

2018-01-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage, and can lead to large scale die offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs. PMID:27169560

Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana.

PubMed

Morris, Lillian R; Blackburn, Jason K

2016-06-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage and can lead to large-scale die-offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high-risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi-species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs.

Phase angle assessment by bioelectrical impedance analysis and its predictive value for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

PubMed

Varan, Hacer Dogan; Bolayir, Basak; Kara, Ozgur; Arik, Gunes; Kizilarslanoglu, Muhammet Cemal; Kilic, Mustafa Kemal; Sumer, Fatih; Kuyumcu, Mehmet Emin; Yesil, Yusuf; Yavuz, Burcu Balam; Halil, Meltem; Cankurtaran, Mustafa

2016-12-01

Phase angle (PhA) value determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an indicator of cell membrane damage and body cell mass. Recent studies have shown that low PhA value is associated with increased nutritional risk in various group of patients. However, there have been only a few studies performed globally assessing the relationship between nutritional risk and PhA in hospitalized geriatric patients. The aim of the study is to evaluate the predictive value of the PhA for malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients. One hundred and twenty-two hospitalized geriatric patients were included in this cross-sectional study. Comprehensive geriatric assessment tests and BIA measurements were performed within the first 48 h after admission. Nutritional risk state of the patients was determined with NRS-2002. Phase angle values of the patients with malnutrition risk were compared with the patients that did not have the same risk. The independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk were determined. SPSS version 15 was utilized for the statistical analyzes. The patients with malnutrition risk had significantly lower phase angle values than the patients without malnutrition risk (p = 0.003). ROC curve analysis suggested that the optimum PhA cut-off point for malnutrition risk was 4.7° with 79.6 % sensitivity, 64.6 % specificity, 73.9 % positive predictive value, and 73.9 % negative predictive value. BMI, prealbumin, PhA, and Mini Mental State Examination Test scores were the independent variables for predicting malnutrition risk. PhA can be a useful, independent indicator for predicting malnutrition risk in hospitalized geriatric patients.

Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain.

PubMed

Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C

2018-02-21

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

Endotype Transitions During the Acute Phase of Pediatric Septic Shock Reflect Changing Risk and Treatment Response.

PubMed

Wong, Hector R; Cvijanovich, Natalie Z; Anas, Nick; Allen, Geoffrey L; Thomas, Neal J; Bigham, Michael T; Weiss, Scott L; Fitzgerald, Julie C; Checchia, Paul A; Meyer, Keith; Quasney, Michael; Hall, Mark; Gedeit, Rainer; Freishtat, Robert J; Nowak, Jeffrey; Lutfi, Riad; Gertz, Shira; Grunwell, Jocelyn R; Lindsell, Christopher J

2018-03-01

We previously identified septic shock endotypes A and B based on 100 genes reflecting adaptive immunity and glucocorticoid receptor signaling. The endotypes differ with respect to outcome and corticosteroid responsiveness. We determined whether endotypes change during the initial 3 days of illness, and whether changes are associated with outcomes. Observational cohort study including existing and newly enrolled participants. Multiple PICUs. Children with septic shock. None. We measured the 100 endotyping genes at day 1 and day 3 of illness in 375 patients. We determined if endotype assignment changes over time, and whether changing endotype is associated with corticosteroid response and outcomes. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for illness severity, age, and comorbidity burden. Among the 132 subjects assigned to endotype A on day 1, 56 (42%) transitioned to endotype B by day 3. Among 243 subjects assigned to endotype B on day 1, 77 (32%) transitioned to endotype A by day 3. Assignment to endotype A on day 1 was associated with increased odds of mortality. This risk was modified by the subsequent day 3 endotype assignment. Corticosteroids were associated with increased risk of mortality among subjects who persisted as endotype A. A substantial proportion of children with septic shock transition endotypes during the acute phase of illness. The risk of poor outcome and the response to corticosteroids change with changes in endotype assignment. Patients persisting as endotype A are at highest risk of poor outcomes.

Strategies to Minimize Risks and Exploitation in Phase One Trials on Healthy Subjects*

PubMed Central

Shamoo, Adil E.; Resnik, David B.

2014-01-01

Most of the literature on phase one trials has focused on ethical and safety issues in research on patients with advanced cancer, but this article focuses on healthy, adult subjects. The article makes six specific recommendations for protecting the rights and welfare of healthy subjects in phase one trials: 1) because phase one trials are short in duaration (usually 1 to 3 months), researchers should gather more data on the short-term and long-term risks of participation in phase one studies by healthy subjects; 2) researchers should develop strict inclusion/exclusion criteria that exclude unhealthy or vulnerable subjects, such as decisionally impaired people, in phase one studies; 3) subjects should not participate in more than one phase one study at the same time and should wait at least 30 days between participating in different studies; 4) researchers should develop a database to keep track of phase one participants; 5) subjects should be guaranteed a minimum wage equivalent to the equivalent type of unskilled labor, but there should be no upper limits on wages; and 6) subjects should be allowed to engage in collective bargaining with research sponsors. PMID:16754430

Strategies to minimize risks and exploitation in phase one trials on healthy subjects.

PubMed

Shamoo, Adil E; Resnik, David B

2006-01-01

Most of the literature on phase one trials has focused on ethical and safety issues in research on patients with advanced cancer, but this article focuses on healthy, adult subjects. The article makes six specific recommendations for protecting the rights and welfare of healthy subjects in phase one trials: 1) because phase one trials are short in duration (usually 1 to 3 months), researchers should gather more data on the short-term and long-term risks of participation in phase one studies by healthy subjects; 2) researchers should develop strict inclusion/exclusion criteria that exclude unhealthy or vulnerable subjects, such as decisionally impaired people, in phase one studies; 3) subjects should not participate in more than one phase one study at the same time and should wait at least 30 days between participating in different studies; 4) researchers should develop a database to keep track of phase one participants; 5) subjects should be guaranteed a minimum wage equivalent to the equivalent type of unskilled labor, but there should be no upper limits on wages; and 6) subjects should be allowed to engage in collective bargaining with research sponsors.

Identifying Patterns in Extreme Precipitation Risk and the Related Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation can harm human life and assets through flooding, hail, landslides, or debris flows. Flood risk assessments typically concentrate on river or mountain torrent channels, using water depth, flow velocity, and/or sediment deposition to quantify the risk. In addition, extreme events with high recurrence intervals are often the main focus. However, damages from short-term and localized convective showers often occur away from watercourses. Also, damages from more frequent small scale extremes, although usually less disastrous, can accumulate to considerable financial burdens. Extreme convective precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate, and vulnerability patterns might change in tandem with changes in the character of precipitation and flood types. This has consequences for adaptation planners who want to establish effective protection measures and reduce the cost from natural hazards. Here we merge hydrological and exposure data to identify patterns of risk under varying synoptic conditions. Exposure is calculated from a database of 76k damage claims reported to the national disaster fund in 480 municipalities in south eastern Austria from 1990-2015. Hydrological data comprise sub-daily precipitation (59 gauges) and streamflow (62 gauges) observations. We use synoptic circulation types to identify typical precipitation patterns. They indicate the character of precipitation even if a gauge is not in close proximity, facilitating potential future research with regional climate model data. Results show that more claims are reported under synoptic conditions favouring convective precipitation (on average 1.5-3 times more than on other days). For agrarian municipalities, convective precipitation damages are among the costliest after long low-intensity precipitation events. In contrast, Alpine communities are particularly vulnerable to convective high-intensity rainfall. In addition to possible observational error, uncertainty is present

The Impact of Early Design Phase Risk Identification Biases on Space System Project Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeves, John D., Jr.; Eveleigh, Tim; Holzer, Thomas; Sarkani, Shahryar

2012-01-01

Risk identification during the early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to result in the identification of events and circumstances that truly challenge project performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimation are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. A deeper understanding of frequent risk identification trends and biases pervasive during space system design and development is needed, for it would lead to improved execution of existing identification processes and methods.

Centrifuge workers study. Phase II, completion report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wooten, H.D.

1994-09-01

Phase II of the Centrifuge Workers Study was a follow-up to the Phase I efforts. The Phase I results had indicated a higher risk than expected among centrifuge workers for developing bladder cancer when compared with the risk in the general population for developing this same type of cancer. However, no specific agent could be identified as the causative agent for these bladder cancers. As the Phase II Report states, Phase I had been limited to workers who had the greatest potential for exposure to substances used in the centrifuge process. Phase II was designed to expand the survey tomore » evaluate the health of all employees who had ever worked in Centrifuge Program Departments 1330-1339 but who had not been interviewed in Phase I. Employees in analytical laboratories and maintenance departments who provided support services for the Centrifuge Program were also included in Phase II. In December 1989, the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), now known as Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), was contracted to conduct a follow-up study (Phase II). Phase H of the Centrifuge Workers Study expanded the survey to include all former centrifuge workers who were not included in Phase I. ORISE was chosen because they had performed the Phase I tasks and summarized the corresponding survey data therefrom.« less

Screening for violence risk factors identifies young adults at risk for return emergency department visit for injury.

PubMed

Hankin, Abigail; Wei, Stanley; Foreman, Juron; Houry, Debra

2014-08-01

Homicide is the second leading cause of death among youth aged 15-24. Prior cross-sectional studies, in non-healthcare settings, have reported exposure to community violence, peer behavior, and delinquency as risk factors for violent injury. However, longitudinal cohort studies have not been performed to evaluate the temporal or predictive relationship between these risk factors and emergency department (ED) visits for injuries among at-risk youth. The objective was to assess whether self-reported exposure to violence risk factors in young adults can be used to predict future ED visits for injuries over a 1-year period. This prospective cohort study was performed in the ED of a Southeastern US Level I trauma center. Eligible participants were patients aged 18-24, presenting for any chief complaint. We excluded patients if they were critically ill, incarcerated, or could not read English. Initial recruitment occurred over a 6-month period, by a research assistant in the ED for 3-5 days per week, with shifts scheduled such that they included weekends and weekdays, over the hours from 8AM-8PM. At the time of initial contact in the ED, patients were asked to complete a written questionnaire, consisting of previously validated instruments measuring the following risk factors: a) aggression, b) perceived likelihood of violence, c) recent violent behavior, d) peer behavior, e) community exposure to violence, and f) positive future outlook. At 12 months following the initial ED visit, the participants' medical records were reviewed to identify any subsequent ED visits for injury-related complaints. We analyzed data with chi-square and logistic regression analyses. Three hundred thirty-two patients were approached, of whom 300 patients consented. Participants' average age was 21.1 years, with 60.1% female, 86.0% African American. After controlling for participant gender, ethnicity, or injury complaint at time of first visit, return visits for injuries were significantly

38 CFR 41.525 - Criteria for Federal program risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... at low-risk. (2) The phase of a Federal program in its life cycle at the Federal agency may indicate... program in its life cycle at the auditee may indicate risk. For example, during the first and last years... section, to identify risk in Federal programs. Also, as part of the risk analysis, the auditor may wish to...

Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach

PubMed Central

Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

2016-01-01

Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

Near-Earth Phase Risk Comparison of Human Mars Campaign Architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manning, Ted A.; Nejad, Hamed S.; Mattenberger, Chris

2013-01-01

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed

Genetic Testing as a Tool to Identify Horses with or at Risk for Ocular Disorders.

PubMed

Bellone, Rebecca R

2017-12-01

Advances in equine genetics and genomics resources have enabled the understanding of some inherited ocular disorders and ocular manifestations. These ocular disorders include congenital stationary night blindness, equine recurrent uveitis, multiple congenital ocular anomalies, and squamous cell carcinoma. Genetic testing can identify horses with or at risk for disease and thus can assist in clinical management. In addition, genetic testing can identify horses that are carriers and thus can inform breeding decisions. Use of genetic tests in management and breeding decisions should aid in reducing the incidence of these disorders and improving the outcomes for horses at highest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying, screening and engaging high-risk clients in private non-profit child abuse prevention programs.

PubMed

Barth, R P; Ash, J R; Hacking, S

1986-01-01

Child abuse prevention programs rely on varied strategies to identify, screen, obtain referrals of, and engage high risk parents. Available literature on community-based child abuse prevention projects is not conclusive about project outcomes nor sufficiently descriptive about implementation. From the literature, experience and interviews with staff from more than 20 programs, barriers to implementation are identifiable. Barriers arise during identifying and screening at-risk families, referral, continued collaboration with referrers, and engaging clients in services. The paper describes a diverse set of strategies for surmounting these barriers. Staff characteristics and concrete services partially predict the success of program implementation. So does the program's relationship to other agencies. Child abuse prevention programs assume independent, interdependent, and dependent relationships with other agencies and referrers. Interdependent programs appear to have the best chance of obtaining referrals and maintaining clients who match their program's intent.

Cardiovascular risk assessment of dyslipidemic children: analysis of biomarkers to identify monogenic dyslipidemia[S

PubMed Central

Medeiros, Ana Margarida; Alves, Ana Catarina; Aguiar, Pedro; Bourbon, Mafalda

2014-01-01

The distinction between a monogenic dyslipidemia and a polygenic/environmental dyslipidemia is important for the cardiovascular risk assessment, counseling, and treatment of these patients. The present work aims to perform the cardiovascular risk assessment of dyslipidemic children to identify useful biomarkers for clinical criteria improvement in clinical settings. Main cardiovascular risk factors were analyzed in a cohort of 237 unrelated children with clinical diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). About 40% carried at least two cardiovascular risk factors and 37.6% had FH, presenting mutations in LDLR and APOB. FH children showed significant elevated atherogenic markers and lower concentration of antiatherogenic particles. Children without a molecular diagnosis of FH had higher levels of TGs, apoC2, apoC3, and higher frequency of BMI and overweight/obesity, suggesting that environmental factors can be the underlying cause of their hypercholesterolem≥ia. An apoB/apoA1 ratio ≥0.68 was identified as the best biomarker (area under the curve = 0.835) to differentiate FH from other dyslipidemias. The inclusion in clinical criteria of a higher cut-off point for LDL cholesterol or an apoB/apoA1 ratio ≥0.68 optimized the criteria sensitivity and specificity. The correct identification, at an early age, of all children at-risk is of great importance so that specific interventions can be implemented. apoB/apoA1 can improve the identification of FH patients. PMID:24627126

Longitudinal Social-Interpersonal Functioning among Higher-risk Responders to Acute-phase Cognitive Therapy for Recurrent Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Vittengl, Jeffrey R.; Clark, Lee Anna; Thase, Michael E.; Jarrett, Robin B.

2016-01-01

Background Social-interpersonal dysfunction increases disability in major depressive disorder (MDD). Here we clarified the durability of improvements in social-interpersonal functioning made during acute-phase cognitive therapy (CT), whether continuation CT (C-CT) or fluoxetine (FLX) further improved functioning, and relations of functioning with depressive symptoms and relapse/recurrence. Method Adult outpatients (N=241) with recurrent MDD who responded to acute-phase CT with higher risk of relapse (due to unstable or partial remission) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT, FLX, or pill placebo plus clinical management (PBO) and followed 24 additional months. We analyzed repeated measures of patients’ social adjustment, interpersonal problems, dyadic adjustment, depressive symptoms, and major depressive relapse/recurrence. Results Large improvements in social-interpersonal functioning occurring during acute-phase CT (median d=1.4) were maintained, with many patients (median=66%) scoring in normal ranges for 32 months. Social-interpersonal functioning did not differ significantly among C-CT, FLX, and PBO arms. Beyond concurrently measured residual symptoms, deterioration in social-interpersonal functioning preceded and predicted upticks in depressive symptoms and major depressive relapse/recurrence. Limitations Results may not generalize to other patient populations, treatment protocols, or measures of social-interpersonal functioning. Mechanisms of risk connecting poorer social-interpersonal functioning with depression were not studied. Conclusions Average improvements in social-interpersonal functioning among higher-risk responders to acute phase CT are durable for 32 months. After acute-phase CT, C-CT or FLX may not further improve social-interpersonal functioning. Among acute-phase CT responders, deteriorating social-interpersonal functioning provides a clear, measurable signal of risk for impending major depressive relapse/recurrence and opportunity for

Longitudinal social-interpersonal functioning among higher-risk responders to acute-phase cognitive therapy for recurrent major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Vittengl, Jeffrey R; Clark, Lee Anna; Thase, Michael E; Jarrett, Robin B

2016-07-15

Social-interpersonal dysfunction increases disability in major depressive disorder (MDD). Here we clarified the durability of improvements in social-interpersonal functioning made during acute-phase cognitive therapy (CT), whether continuation CT (C-CT) or fluoxetine (FLX) further improved functioning, and relations of functioning with depressive symptoms and relapse/recurrence. Adult outpatients (N=241) with recurrent MDD who responded to acute-phase CT with higher risk of relapse (due to unstable or partial remission) were randomized to 8 months of C-CT, FLX, or pill placebo plus clinical management (PBO) and followed 24 additional months. We analyzed repeated measures of patients' social adjustment, interpersonal problems, dyadic adjustment, depressive symptoms, and major depressive relapse/recurrence. Large improvements in social-interpersonal functioning occurring during acute-phase CT (median d=1.4) were maintained, with many patients (median=66%) scoring in normal ranges for 32 months. Social-interpersonal functioning did not differ significantly among C-CT, FLX, and PBO arms. Beyond concurrently measured residual symptoms, deterioration in social-interpersonal functioning preceded and predicted upticks in depressive symptoms and major depressive relapse/recurrence. Results may not generalize to other patient populations, treatment protocols, or measures of social-interpersonal functioning. Mechanisms of risk connecting poorer social-interpersonal functioning with depression were not studied. Average improvements in social-interpersonal functioning among higher-risk responders to acute phase CT are durable for 32 months. After acute-phase CT, C-CT or FLX may not further improve social-interpersonal functioning. Among acute-phase CT responders, deteriorating social-interpersonal functioning provides a clear, measurable signal of risk for impending major depressive relapse/recurrence and opportunity for preemptive intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

PubMed Central

Bos, Peter M. J.; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J.; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F.; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J. G. M.; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C. E.; Oomen, Agnes G.

2015-01-01

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy. PMID:26633430

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

An Electronic Health Record Data-driven Model for Identifying Older Adults at Risk of Unintentional Falls

PubMed Central

Baus, Adam; Coben, Jeffrey; Zullig, Keith; Pollard, Cecil; Mullett, Charles; Taylor, Henry; Cochran, Jill; Jarrett, Traci; Long, Dustin

2017-01-01

Screening for risk of unintentional falls remains low in the primary care setting because of the time constraints of brief office visits. National studies suggest that physicians caring for older adults provide recommended fall risk screening only 30 to 37 percent of the time. Given prior success in developing methods for repurposing electronic health record data for the identification of fall risk, this study involves building a model in which electronic health record data could be applied for use in clinical decision support to bolster screening by proactively identifying patients for whom screening would be beneficial and targeting efforts specifically to those patients. The final model, consisting of priority and extended measures, demonstrates moderate discriminatory power, indicating that it could prove useful in a clinical setting for identifying patients at risk of falls. Focus group discussions reveal important contextual issues involving the use of fall-related data and provide direction for the development of health systems–level innovations for the use of electronic health record data for fall risk identification. PMID:29118679

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Robert J.; Papadopoulos, Periklis E.

2005-01-01

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

Transformation in the pharmaceutical industry: transformation-induced quality risks--a survey.

PubMed

Shafiei, Nader; Ford, James L; Morecroft, Charles W; Lisboa, Paulo J; Taylor, Mark J; Mouzughi, Yusra

2013-01-01

This paper is the fourth in a series that explores ongoing transformation in the pharmaceutical industry and its impact on pharmaceutical quality from the perspective of risk identification. The aim of this paper is to validate proposed quality risks through elicitation of expert opinion and define the resultant quality risk model. Expert opinion was obtained using a questionnaire-based survey with participants with recognized expertise in pharmaceutical regulation, product lifecycle, or technology. The results of the survey validate the theoretical and operational evidence in support of the four main pharmaceutical transformation triggers previously identified. The quality risk model resulting from the survey indicated a firm relationship between the pharmaceutical quality risks and regulatory compliance outcomes during the marketing approval and post-marketing phases of the product lifecycle and a weaker relationship during the pre-market evaluation phase. In this paper through conduct of an expert opinion survey the proposed quality risks carried forward from an earlier part of the research are validated and resultant quality risk model is defined. The survey results validate the theoretical and operational evidence previously identified. The quality risk model indicates that transformation-related risks have a larger regulatory compliance impact during product approval, manufacturing, distribution, and commercial use than during the development phase.

Critical assessment of the use of growth monitoring for identifying high risk children in primary health care programmes.

PubMed Central

Briend, A.; Bari, A.

1989-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To see whether change in weight was a more useful index than weight for age in assessing the risk of dying among malnourished children. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study. SETTING--Rural community in Bangladesh being served by international health organisation. PARTICIPANTS--1011 Children aged under 5, of whom 66 died. END POINT--Efficient screening method for identifying malnourished children at risk of dying. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Weight was measured every month. Weight for age and monthly change in weight averaged over one and three months were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity curves were used to compare the values of these two variables in identifying children with a high risk of dying. Weight for age was more sensitive than change in weight at all levels of specificity. Changes in weight, however, were independently related to the risk of dying even when intercurrent diseases and low weight for age were taken into account. CONCLUSIONS--For identifying children with a high risk of dying weight for age is a more efficient screening tool than a recent change in weight. Growth monitoring as currently recommended for primary health care programmes in developing countries does not seem to be the most effective approach in identifying children in need of urgent help. PMID:2503147

Simple Test of Manual Dexterity Can Help to Identify Persons at High Risk for Neurodegenerative Diseases in the Community.

PubMed

Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; Koudstaal, Peter J; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-01-01

Early identification of individuals at high risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases is essential for timely preventive intervention. However, simple methods that can be used for risk assessment in general practice are lacking. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used the Purdue Pegboard Test (PPT) to assess manual dexterity in 4,856 persons (median age 70 years, 58% women) free of parkinsonism and dementia between 2000 and 2004. We followed these persons until January 1, 2012 for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases (defined as first diagnosis of parkinsonism or dementia). We determined the association of PPT scores with incident neurodegenerative disease, adjusting for age, sex, study cohort, level of education, smoking, preferred hand, parental history, memory complaints, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Furthermore, we determined the incremental predictive value of PPT, expressed as change in risk classification and discrimination. During follow-up (median 9.2 years), 277 participants were diagnosed with a neurodegenerative disease (227 with dementia and 50 with parkinsonism). Lower PPT scores were associated with higher risk of incident neurodegenerative diseases (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.41) and improved discrimination of incident neurodegenerative diseases. We also observed significant associations of PPT scores separately with incident dementia (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.39]) and incident parkinsonism (HR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67). A rapid, nonlaboratory test of manual dexterity may help to identify persons at high risk for neurodegenerative diseases. This highlights the importance of motor function in the preclinical phase of both dementia and parkinsonism and may aid in selecting individuals for refined screening and neuroprotective trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e

Improved cancer risk stratification and diagnosis via quantitative phase microscopy (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yang; Uttam, Shikhar; Pham, Hoa V.; Hartman, Douglas J.

2017-02-01

Pathology remains the gold standard for cancer diagnosis and in some cases prognosis, in which trained pathologists examine abnormality in tissue architecture and cell morphology characteristic of cancer cells with a bright-field microscope. The limited resolution of conventional microscope can result in intra-observer variation, missed early-stage cancers, and indeterminate cases that often result in unnecessary invasive procedures in the absence of cancer. Assessment of nanoscale structural characteristics via quantitative phase represents a promising strategy for identifying pre-cancerous or cancerous cells, due to its nanoscale sensitivity to optical path length, simple sample preparation (i.e., label-free) and low cost. I will present the development of quantitative phase microscopy system in transmission and reflection configuration to detect the structural changes in nuclear architecture, not be easily identifiable by conventional pathology. Specifically, we will present the use of transmission-mode quantitative phase imaging to improve diagnostic accuracy of urine cytology and the nuclear dry mass is progressively correlate with negative, atypical, suspicious and positive cytological diagnosis. In a second application, we will present the use of reflection-mode quantitative phase microscopy for depth-resolved nanoscale nuclear architecture mapping (nanoNAM) of clinically prepared formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections. We demonstrated that the quantitative phase microscopy system detects a gradual increase in the density alteration of nuclear architecture during malignant transformation in animal models of colon carcinogenesis and in human patients with ulcerative colitis, even in tissue that appears histologically normal according to pathologists. We evaluated the ability of nanoNAM to predict "future" cancer progression in patients with ulcerative colitis.

The Global Asthma Network rationale and methods for Phase I global surveillance: prevalence, severity, management and risk factors.

PubMed

Ellwood, Philippa; Asher, M Innes; Billo, Nils E; Bissell, Karen; Chiang, Chen-Yuan; Ellwood, Eamon M; El-Sony, Asma; García-Marcos, Luis; Mallol, Javier; Marks, Guy B; Pearce, Neil E; Strachan, David P

2017-01-01

The Global Asthma Network (GAN), established in 2012, followed the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC). ISAAC Phase One involved over 700 000 adolescents and children from 156 centres in 56 countries; it found marked worldwide variation in symptom prevalence of asthma, rhinitis and eczema that was not explained by the current understanding of these diseases; ISAAC Phase Three involved over 1 187 496 adolescents and children (237 centres in 98 countries). It found that asthma symptom prevalence was increasing in many locations especially in low- and middle-income countries where severity was also high, and identified several environmental factors that required further investigation.GAN Phase I, described in this article, builds on the ISAAC findings by collecting further information on asthma, rhinitis and eczema prevalence, severity, diagnoses, asthma emergency room visits, hospital admissions, management and use of asthma essential medicines. The subjects will be the same age groups as ISAAC, and their parents. In this first global monitoring of asthma in children and adults since 2003, further evidence will be obtained to understand asthma, management practices and risk factors, leading to further recognition that asthma is an important non-communicable disease and to reduce its global burden. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

Identifying risk factors for refractory febrile neutropenia in patients with lung cancer.

PubMed

Fujita, Masaki; Tokunaga, Shoji; Ikegame, Satoshi; Harada, Eiji; Matsumoto, Takemasa; Uchino, Junji; Watanabe, Kentaro; Nakanishi, Yoichi

2012-02-01

Information about the development of febrile neutropenia in patients with solid tumors remains insufficient. In this study, we tried to identify the risk factors for refractory febrile neutropenia in patients with lung cancer. A total of 59 neutropenic fever episodes associated with anti-tumor chemotherapy for lung cancer were retrospectively analyzed. We compared patient characteristics according to their initial response to treatment with antibiotics. For 34 of 59 (58%) episodes a response to initial antibiotics was obtained whereas 25 of 59 (42%) were refractory to treatment. Multivariate analysis demonstrated independent risk factors for refractory febrile neutropenia with lung cancer. These risk factors were the severity of febrile neutropenia (odds ratio (OR) 6.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.85-20.14) and C-reactive protein more than 10 mg/dl (OR 4.39; 95% CI 1.22-15.74). These factors could predict outcome for patients with lung cancer who develop refractory febrile neutropenia.

Risk Assessment During the Final Phase of an Uncontrolled Re-Entry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudel, A.; Hourtolle, C.; Goester, J. F.; Fuentes, N.

2013-09-01

As French National Space Agency, CNES is empowered to monitor compliance with technical regulations of the French Space Operation Act, FSOA, and to take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of people, property, public health and environment for all space operations involving French responsibility at international level.Therefore, CNES developed ELECTRA that calculates the risk for ground population involved in three types of events: rocket launching, controlled re-entry and uncontrolled re-entry. For the first two cases, ELECTRA takes into account degraded cases due to a premature stop of propulsion.Major evolutions were implemented recently on ELECTRA to meet new users' requirements, like the risk assessment during the final phase of uncontrolled re-entry, that can be combined with the computed risk for each country involved by impacts.The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the ELECTRA method and main functionalities, and then to highlight these recent improvements.

Identifying mortality risks in patients with opioid use disorder using brief screening assessment: Secondary mental health clinical records analysis.

PubMed

Bogdanowicz, Karolina Magda; Stewart, Robert; Chang, Chin-Kuo; Downs, Johnny; Khondoker, Mizanur; Shetty, Hitesh; Strang, John; Hayes, Richard Derek

2016-07-01

Risk assessments are widely used, but their ability to predict outcomes in opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment remains unclear. Therefore, the aim was to investigate if addiction-specific brief risk screening is effective in identifying high mortality risk groups and if subsequent clinical actions following risk assessment impacts on mortality levels. Opioid use disorder (OUD) patients were identified in the South London and Maudsley Case Register. Deaths were identified through database linkage to the national mortality dataset. Cox and competing-risk regression were used to model associations between brief risk assessment domains and all-cause and overdose mortality in 4488 OUD patients, with up-to 6-year follow-up time where 227 deaths were registered. Data were stratified by admission to general mental health services. All-cause mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and clinically appraised likelihood of accidental overdose (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.00-2.19). Overdose-mortality was significantly associated with unsafe injecting (SHR 2.52, 95% CI 1.11-5.70) and clinically appraised suicidality (SHR 2.89, 95% CI 1.38-6.03). Suicidality was associated with a twofold increase in mortality risk among OUD patients who were not admitted to mental health services within 2 months of their risk assessment (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.67-3.24). Diagnosis-specific brief risk screening can identify OUD patient subgroups at increased risk of all-cause and overdose mortality. OUD patients, where suicidality is evident, who are not admitted into services are particularly vulnerable. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Genome-wide gene-asbestos exposure interaction association study identifies a common susceptibility variant on 22q13.31 associated with lung cancer risk

PubMed Central

Liu, Chen-yu; Stücker, Isabelle; Chen, Chu; Goodman, Gary; McHugh, Michelle K.; D’Amelio, Anthony M.; Etzel, Carol J.; Li, Su; Lin, Xihong; Christiani, David C.

2015-01-01

Background Occupational asbestos exposure has been found to increase lung cancer risk in epidemiological studies. Methods We conducted an asbestos exposure-gene interaction analyses among several Caucasian populations who were current or ex-smokers. The discovery phase included 833 Caucasian cases and 739 Caucasian controls, and used a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with gene-asbestos interaction effects. The top ranked SNPs from the discovery phase were replicated within the International Lung and Cancer Consortium (ILCCO). First, in silico replication was conducted in those groups that had GWAS and asbestos exposure data, including 1,548 cases and 1,527 controls. This step was followed by de novo genotyping to replicate the results from the in silico replication, and included 1,539 cases and 1,761 controls. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the SNP-asbestos exposure interaction effects on lung cancer risk. Results We observed significantly increased lung cancer risk among MIRLET7BHG (MIRLET7B host gene located at 22q13.31) polymorphisms rs13053856, rs11090910, rs11703832, and rs12170325 heterozygous and homozygous variant allele(s) carriers [p<5×10−7 by likelihood ratio test; df=1]. Among the heterozygous and homozygous variant allele(s) carriers of polymorphisms rs13053856, rs11090910, rs11703832, and rs12170325, each unit increase in the natural log-transformed asbestos exposure score was associated with age-, sex-, smoking status- and center-adjusted ORs of 1.34 (95%CI=1.18–1.51), 1.24 (95%CI=1.14–1.35), 1.28 (95%CI=1.17–1.40), and 1.26 (95%CI=1.15–1.38), respectively for lung cancer risk. Conclusion Our findings suggest that MIRLET7BHG polymorphisms may be important predictive markers for asbestos exposure-related lung cancer. Impact To our knowledge, our study is the first report using a systematic genome-wide analysis in combination with detailed asbestos exposure data and

Prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a risk factor at a tertiary care hospital.

PubMed

Mahmud, Ghazala; Abbas, Shazra

2009-01-01

HIV is an epidemic quite unlike any other, combining the problems of a lifelong medical disease with immense social, psychological, economic and public health consequences. Since we are living in a global village where human interactions has become fast and frequent, diseases like HIV are no more alien to us. HIV/AIDS in Pakistan is slowly gaining recognition as a public health issue of great importance. Objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a high risk factor/behaviour at a tertiary care hospital. It is a Descriptive study. All pregnant women attending antenatal booking clinic were assessed via a pre-designed 'Risk assessment questionnaire'. Women identified with a risk factor were offered HIV Rapid screening test (Capillus HIV1/2). Positive (reactive) results on screening test were confirmed with ELISA. During the study period (March 2007-May 2008), out of 5263 antenatal bookings 785 (14%) women were identified with a risk factor. HIV screening test was done in 779 (99%), and 6 women refused testing. Three women (0.3%) were found positive (reactive) on screening. Two out of 3 women were confirmed positive (0.2%) on ELISA. Husbands of both women were tested and one found positive (migrant from Dubai). Second women had history of blood transfusion. Her husband was HIV negative. During the study period, in addition to 2 pregnant women diagnosed as HIV positive through ANC risk screening, 6 confirmed HIV positive women, found pregnant were referred from 'HIV Treatment Centre', Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) to Prevention of Parent to Child Transmission (PPTCT) centre for obstetric care. Spouses of 5 out of 6 had history of working abroad and extramarital sexual relationships. All positive (8) women were referred to PPTCT centre for further management. A simple 'Risk Assessment Questionnaire' can help us in identifying women who need HIV screening. Sexual transmission still remains the

Electronic monitoring of medication adherence in early maintenance phase treatment for pediatric leukemia and lymphoma: identifying patterns of nonadherence.

PubMed

Rohan, Jennifer M; Drotar, Dennis; Alderfer, Melissa; Donewar, Crista Wetherington; Ewing, Linda; Katz, Ernest R; Muriel, Anna

2015-01-01

To describe patterns of treatment adherence to early maintenance phase therapy for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and lymphoblastic lymphoma (LBL). Using an objective observational method (electronic monitoring), adherence was examined for 139 patients aged 7-19 years diagnosed with ALL or LBL across 6 centers. The mean adherence percentage was 86.2%. Adherence rates declined over the 1-month of follow-up to 83%. 3 linear trajectories of 6-mercaptopurine adherence were identified: (1) exemplary adherence (n = 99): Averaging nearly 100%; (2) deteriorating (n = 23): Adherence decreased from 100 to 60%; and (3) chronically poor adherence (n = 9): Averaging 40%. Adherence promotion interventions might be tailored to subgroups of patients who demonstrated problematic patterns of treatment adherence that could place them at risk for relapse. This research demonstrates the importance of using objective real-time measures of medication adherence for measuring and documenting adherence patterns. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies novel blood pressure loci and offers biological insights into cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Warren, Helen R; Evangelou, Evangelos; Cabrera, Claudia P; Gao, He; Ren, Meixia; Mifsud, Borbala; Ntalla, Ioanna; Surendran, Praveen; Liu, Chunyu; Cook, James P; Kraja, Aldi T; Drenos, Fotios; Loh, Marie; Verweij, Niek; Marten, Jonathan; Karaman, Ibrahim; Lepe, Marcelo P Segura; O'Reilly, Paul F; Knight, Joanne; Snieder, Harold; Kato, Norihiro; He, Jiang; Tai, E Shyong; Said, M Abdullah; Porteous, David; Alver, Maris; Poulter, Neil; Farrall, Martin; Gansevoort, Ron T; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Mägi, Reedik; Stanton, Alice; Connell, John; Bakker, Stephan J L; Metspalu, Andres; Shields, Denis C; Thom, Simon; Brown, Morris; Sever, Peter; Esko, Tõnu; Hayward, Caroline; van der Harst, Pim; Saleheen, Danish; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Chambers, John C; Chasman, Daniel I; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Levy, Daniel; Kooner, Jaspal S; Keavney, Bernard; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Samani, Nilesh J; Howson, Joanna M M; Tobin, Martin D; Munroe, Patricia B; Ehret, Georg B; Wain, Louise V

2017-03-01

Elevated blood pressure is the leading heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. We report genetic association of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, pulse pressure) among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry with independent replication in other cohorts, and robust validation of 107 independent loci. We also identify new independent variants at 11 previously reported blood pressure loci. In combination with results from a range of in silico functional analyses and wet bench experiments, our findings highlight new biological pathways for blood pressure regulation enriched for genes expressed in vascular tissues and identify potential therapeutic targets for hypertension. Results from genetic risk score models raise the possibility of a precision medicine approach through early lifestyle intervention to offset the impact of blood pressure-raising genetic variants on future cardiovascular disease risk.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies novel blood pressure loci and offers biological insights into cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Ntalla, Ioanna; Surendran, Praveen; Liu, Chunyu; Cook, James P; Kraja, Aldi T; Drenos, Fotios; Loh, Marie; Verweij, Niek; Marten, Jonathan; Karaman, Ibrahim; Segura Lepe, Marcelo P; O’Reilly, Paul F; Knight, Joanne; Snieder, Harold; Kato, Norihiro; He, Jiang; Tai, E Shyong; Said, M Abdullah; Porteous, David; Alver, Maris; Poulter, Neil; Farrall, Martin; Gansevoort, Ron T; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Mägi, Reedik; Stanton, Alice; Connell, John; Bakker, Stephan J L; Metspalu, Andres; Shields, Denis C; Thom, Simon; Brown, Morris; Sever, Peter; Esko, Tõnu; Hayward, Caroline; van der Harst, Pim; Saleheen, Danish; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Chambers, John C; Chasman, Daniel I; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Lindgren, Cecilia M; Levy, Daniel; Kooner, Jaspal S; Keavney, Bernard; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Samani, Nilesh J; Howson, Joanna M M; Tobin, Martin D; Munroe, Patricia B; Ehret, Georg B; Wain, Louise V

2017-01-01

Elevated blood pressure is the leading heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease worldwide. We report genetic association of blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, pulse pressure) among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry with independent replication in other cohorts, and robust validation of 107 independent loci. We also identify new independent variants at 11 previously reported blood pressure loci. Combined with results from a range of in silico functional analyses and wet bench experiments, our findings highlight new biological pathways for blood pressure regulation enriched for genes expressed in vascular tissues and identify potential therapeutic targets for hypertension. Results from genetic risk score models raise the possibility of a precision medicine approach through early lifestyle intervention to offset the impact of blood pressure raising genetic variants on future cardiovascular disease risk. PMID:28135244

Proteomics analysis identified peroxiredoxin 2 involved in early-phase left ventricular impairment in hamsters with cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Kuzuya, Kentaro; Ichihara, Sahoko; Suzuki, Yuka; Inoue, Chisa; Ichihara, Gaku; Kurimoto, Syota; Oikawa, Shinji

2018-01-01

Given the hypothesis that inflammation plays a critical role in the progression of cardiovascular diseases, the aim of the present study was to identify new diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers of myocardial proteins involved in early-phase cardiac impairment, using proteomics analysis. Using the two-dimensional fluorescence difference gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) combined with MALDI-TOF/TOF tandem mass spectrometry, we compared differences in the expression of proteins in the whole left ventricles between control hamsters, dilated cardiomyopathic hamsters (TO-2), and hypertrophy cardiomyopathic hamsters (Bio14.6) at 6 weeks of age (n = 6, each group). Proteomic analysis identified 10 protein spots with significant alterations, with 7 up-regulated and 3 down-regulated proteins in the left ventricles of both TO-2 and Bio 14.6 hamsters, compared with control hamsters. Of the total alterations, peroxiredoxin 2 (PRDX2) showed significant upregulation in the left ventricles of TO-2 and Bio 14.6 hamsters. Our data suggest that PRDX2, a redox regulating molecule, is involved in early-phase left ventricular impairment in hamsters with cardiomyopathy.

Using latent class analysis to identify academic and behavioral risk status in elementary students.

PubMed

King, Kathleen R; Lembke, Erica S; Reinke, Wendy M

2016-03-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in the areas of reading, mathematics, and behavior were used as indicators of success on an end of year statewide achievement test. Results identified 3 subclasses of children, including a class with minimal academic and behavioral concerns (Tier 1; 32% of the sample), a class at-risk for academic problems and somewhat at-risk for behavior problems (Tier 2; 37% of the sample), and a class with significant academic and behavior problems (Tier 3; 31%). Each class was predictive of end of year performance on the statewide achievement test, with the Tier 1 class performing significantly higher on the test than the Tier 2 class, which in turn scored significantly higher than the Tier 3 class. The results of this study indicated that distinct classes of children can be determined through brief screening measures and are predictive of later academic success. Further implications are discussed for prevention and intervention for students at risk for academic failure and behavior problems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2013-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

2017-01-01

Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

Screening approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions related to hip fracture risk in persons with Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Tolppanen, Anna-Maija; Taipale, Heidi; Koponen, Marjaana; Tanskanen, Antti; Lavikainen, Piia; Paananen, Jussi; Tiihonen, Jari; Hartikainen, Sirpa

2017-08-01

To assess whether a "drugome-wide" screen with case-crossover design is a feasible approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions. All community-dwelling residents of Finland who received a clinically verified Alzheimer disease diagnosis in 2005 to 2011 and experienced incident hip fracture (HF) afterwards (N = 4851). Three scenarios were used to test the sensitivity of this approach (1) hazard period 0 to 30 and control period 31 to 61 days before HF, (2) hazard period 0 to 30 and control period 336 to 366 days before HF, and (3) hazard period 0 to 14 and control period 16 to 30 days before HF. Nine, 44, and 5 drugs were associated with increased HF risk and 8, 23, and 4 with decreased risk in scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Six drugs were identified with scenario 1 only and 54 and 1 with scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Only six drugs (metoprolol, simvastatin, trimethoprim, codeine combinations, fentanyl, and paracetamol) were associated with HF in all scenarios, four with 1 and 2 (cefalexin, buprenorphine, olanzapine, and memantine), and one with 1 and 3 (enalapril) or 2 and 3 (ciprofloxacin). The direction of associations was the same in all/both scenarios. The interaction results were equally versatile, with hydroxocobalamin*oxazepam being the only interaction observed in all scenarios. Case-crossover analysis is a potential approach for identifying candidate drugs and drug-drug interactions associated with adverse events as it implicitly controls for fixed confounders. The results are highly dependent on applied hazard and control periods, but the choice of periods can help in targeting the analyses to different phases of drug use. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Value of laboratory tests in employer-sponsored health risk assessments for newly identifying health conditions: analysis of 52,270 participants.

PubMed

Kaufman, Harvey W; Williams, Fred R; Odeh, Mouneer A

2011-01-01

Employer-sponsored health risk assessments (HRA) may include laboratory tests to provide evidence of disease and disease risks for common medical conditions. We evaluated the ability of HRA-laboratory testing to provide new disease-risk information to participants. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of HRA-laboratory results for participating adult employees and their eligible spouses or their domestic partners, focusing on three common health conditions: hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease. HRA with laboratory results of 52,270 first-time participants were analyzed. Nearly all participants had access to health insurance coverage. Twenty-four percent (12,392) self-reported one or more of these medical conditions: 21.1% (11,017) self-identified as having hyperlipidemia, 4.7% (2,479) self-identified as having diabetes, and 0.7% (352) self-identified as having chronic kidney disease. Overall, 36% (n = 18,540) of participants had laboratory evidence of at least one medical condition newly identified: 30.7% (16,032) had laboratory evidence of hyperlipidemia identified, 1.9% (984) had laboratory evidence of diabetes identified, and 5.5% (2,866) had laboratory evidence of chronic kidney disease identified. Of all participants with evidence of hyperlipidemia 59% (16,030 of 27,047), were newly identified through the HRA. Among those with evidence of diabetes 28% (984 of 3,463) were newly identified. The highest rate of newly identified disease risk was for chronic kidney disease: 89% (2,866 of 3,218) of participants with evidence of this condition had not self-reported it. Men (39%) were more likely than women (33%) to have at least one newly identified condition (p<0.0001). Among men, lower levels of educational achievement were associated with modestly higher rates of newly identified disease risk (p<0.0001); the association with educational achievement among women was unclear. Even among the youngest age range (20 to 29 year olds

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

PubMed

Rebora, Paola; Antolini, Laura; Glidden, David V; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia

2016-01-11

In many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome. We develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard. The proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care. A valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived.

Classroom Dynamics and Young Children Identified as At Risk for the Development of Serious Emotional Disturbance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lago-Delello, Ellie

This study examined differences between kindergarten and first-grade children identified as at risk (AR) or not at risk (NAR) for the development of severe emotional disturbance on selected factors of classroom dynamics. Screening, using the Systematic Screening for Behavior Disorders measure, of all 628 kindergarten and first-grade children at…

Risk Perception and Risk Communication for Training Women Apprentice Welders: A Challenge for Public Health Nursing

PubMed Central

Bonow, Clarice Alves; Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Piexak, Diéssica Roggia; Vaz, Joana Cezar

2013-01-01

This research has aimed to identify the perceptions of women apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed and evaluate the identification of health disorders self-reported for women apprentice welders before and after implementation of a nursing socioenvironmental intervention. A quantitative study was performed with 27 women apprentice welders (first phase) and before and after an intervention with 18 women (second phase) in Southern Brazil in 2011. The data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.2%), chemical (96.2%), physiological (88.8%), and biological (62.9%). The results show a significant difference of the pre- and posttest averages for the musculoskeletal system and a posttest average increase for the integumentary, respiratory, and auditory system. A correlation of the women apprentices' ages and the identification of health disorders were made. It was understood that the perception of women apprentices regarding a particular set of occupational risks is essential for public health nursing to develop an effective risk communication as a positive tool for teaching and learning. PMID:24288604

A risk score for identifying methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents an important pathogen in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). The concept of HCAP, though, may not perform well as a screening test for MRSA and can lead to overuse of antibiotics. We developed a risk score to identify patients presenting to the hospital with pneumonia unlikely to have MRSA. Methods We identified patients admitted with pneumonia (Apr 2005 – Mar 2009) at 62 hospitals in the US. We only included patients with lab evidence of bacterial infection (e.g., positive respiratory secretions, blood, or pleural cultures or urinary antigen testing). We determined variables independently associated with the presence of MRSA based on logistic regression (two-thirds of cohort) and developed a risk prediction model based on these factors. We validated the model in the remaining population. Results The cohort included 5975 patients and MRSA was identified in 14%. The final risk score consisted of eight variables and a potential total score of 10. Points were assigned as follows: two for recent hospitalization or ICU admission; one each for age < 30 or > 79 years, prior IV antibiotic exposure, dementia, cerebrovascular disease, female with diabetes, or recent exposure to a nursing home/long term acute care facility/skilled nursing facility. This study shows how the prevalence of MRSA rose with increasing score after stratifying the scores into Low (0 to 1 points), Medium (2 to 5 points) and High (6 or more points) risk. When the score was 0 or 1, the prevalence of MRSA was < 10% while the prevalence of MRSA climbed to > 30% when the score was 6 or greater. Conclusions MRSA represents a cause of pneumonia presenting to the hospital. This simple risk score identifies patients at low risk for MRSA and in whom anti-MRSA therapy might be withheld. PMID:23742753

Beta-Blockers for Exams Identify Students at High Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity.

PubMed

Butt, Jawad H; Dalsgaard, Søren; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Kruuse, Christina; Fosbøl, Emil L

2017-04-01

Beta-blockers relieve the autonomic symptoms of exam-related anxiety and may be beneficial in exam-related and performance anxiety, but knowledge on related psychiatric outcomes is unknown. We hypothesized that beta-blocker therapy for exam-related anxiety identifies young students at risk of later psychiatric events. Using Danish nationwide administrative registries, we studied healthy students aged 14-30 years (1996-2012) with a first-time claimed prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period (May-June); students who were prescribed a beta-blocker for medical reasons were excluded. We matched these students on age, sex, and time of year to healthy and study active controls with no use of beta-blockers. Risk of incident use of antidepressants, incident use of other psychotropic medications, and suicide attempts was examined by cumulative incidence curves for unadjusted associations and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard analyses for adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). We identified 12,147 healthy students with exam-related beta-blocker use and 12,147 matched healthy students with no current or prior use of beta-blockers (median age, 19 years; 80.3% women). Among all healthy students, 0.14% had a first-time prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period with the highest proportion among students aged 19 years (0.39%). Eighty-one percent of the students filled only that single prescription for a beta-blocker during follow-up. During follow-up, 2225 (18.3%) beta-blocker users and 1400 (11.5%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed an antidepressant (p < 0.0001); 1225 (10.1%) beta-blocker users and 658 (5.4%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed a psychotropic drug (p < 0.0001); and 16 (0.13%) beta-blocker users and 6 (0.05%) nonbeta-blocker users attempted suicide (p = 0.03). Exam-related beta-blocker use was associated with an increased risk of antidepressant use (adjusted HRs, 1.68 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1

Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, R Scott; Benuzillo, Jose; Horne, Benjamin D; Lloyd, James F; Bradshaw, Alejandra; Budge, Deborah; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Roberts, Colleen; Buckway, Jason; Geer, Norma; Garrett, Teresa; Lappé, Donald L

2016-09-01

Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients. The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility. Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identifying fine sediment sources to alleviate flood risk caused by fine sediments through catchment connectivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Twohig, Sarah; Pattison, Ian; Sander, Graham

2017-04-01

Fine sediment poses a significant threat to UK river systems in terms of vegetation, aquatic habitats and morphology. Deposition of fine sediment onto the river bed reduces channel capacity resulting in decreased volume to contain high flow events. Once the in channel problem has been identified managers are under pressure to sustainably mitigate flood risk. With climate change and land use adaptations increasing future pressures on river catchments it is important to consider the connectivity of fine sediment throughout the river catchment and its influence on channel capacity, particularly in systems experiencing long term aggradation. Fine sediment erosion is a continuing concern in the River Eye, Leicestershire. The predominately rural catchment has a history of flooding within the town of Melton Mowbray. Fine sediment from agricultural fields has been identified as a major contributor of sediment delivery into the channel. Current mitigation measures are not sustainable or successful in preventing the continuum of sediment throughout the catchment. Identifying the potential sources and connections of fine sediment would provide insight into targeted catchment management. 'Sensitive Catchment Integrated Modelling Analysis Platforms' (SCIMAP) is a tool often used by UK catchment managers to identify potential sources and routes of sediment within a catchment. SCIMAP is a risk based model that combines hydrological (rainfall) and geomorphic controls (slope, land cover) to identify the risk of fine sediment being transported from source into the channel. A desktop version of SCIMAP was run for the River Eye at a catchment scale using 5m terrain, rainfall and land cover data. A series of SCIMAP model runs were conducted changing individual parameters to determine the sensitivity of the model. Climate Change prediction data for the catchment was used to identify potential areas of future connectivity and erosion risk for catchment managers. The results have been

An Atlas of Soybean Small RNAs Identifies Phased siRNAs from Hundreds of Coding Genes[W

PubMed Central

Kakrana, Atul; Huang, Kun; Zhai, Jixian; Yan, Zhe; Valdés-López, Oswaldo; Prince, Silvas; Musket, Theresa A.; Stacey, Gary

2014-01-01

Small RNAs are ubiquitous, versatile repressors and include (1) microRNAs (miRNAs), processed from mRNA forming stem-loops; and (2) small interfering RNAs (siRNAs), the latter derived in plants by a process typically requiring an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. We constructed and analyzed an expression atlas of soybean (Glycine max) small RNAs, identifying over 500 loci generating 21-nucleotide phased siRNAs (phasiRNAs; from PHAS loci), of which 483 overlapped annotated protein-coding genes. Via the integration of miRNAs with parallel analysis of RNA end (PARE) data, 20 miRNA triggers of 127 PHAS loci were detected. The primary class of PHAS loci (208 or 41% of the total) corresponded to NB-LRR genes; some of these small RNAs preferentially accumulate in nodules. Among the PHAS loci, novel representatives of TAS3 and noncanonical phasing patterns were also observed. A noncoding PHAS locus, triggered by miR4392, accumulated preferentially in anthers; the phasiRNAs are predicted to target transposable elements, with their peak abundance during soybean reproductive development. Thus, phasiRNAs show tremendous diversity in dicots. We identified novel miRNAs and assessed the veracity of soybean miRNAs registered in miRBase, substantially improving the soybean miRNA annotation, facilitating an improvement of miRBase annotations and identifying at high stringency novel miRNAs and their targets. PMID:25465409

Identifying rare variants for genetic risk through a combined pedigree and phenotype approach: application to suicide and asthma.

PubMed

Darlington, T M; Pimentel, R; Smith, K; Bakian, A V; Jerominski, L; Cardon, J; Camp, N J; Callor, W B; Grey, T; Singleton, M; Yandell, M; Renshaw, P F; Yurgelun-Todd, D A; Gray, D; Coon, H

2014-10-21

Suicidal behavior is a complex disorder, with evidence for genetic risk independent of other genetic risk factors including psychiatric disorders. Since 1996, over 3000 DNA samples from Utah suicide decedents have been collected and banked for research use through the Utah Medical Examiner. In addition, over 12,000 Utah suicides were identified through examination of death certificates back to 1904. By linking this data with the Utah Population Database, we have identified multiple extended pedigrees with increased risk for suicide completion. A number of medical conditions co-occur with suicide, including asthma, and this study was undertaken to identify genetic risk common to asthma and suicide. This study tests the hypothesis that a particular comorbid condition may identify a more homogeneous genetic subgroup, facilitating the identification of specific genetic risk factors in that group. From pedigrees at increased risk for suicide, we identified three pedigrees also at significantly increased familial risk for asthma. Five suicide decedents from each of these pedigrees, plus an additional three decedents not from these pedigrees with diagnosed asthma, and 10 decedents with close relatives with asthma were genotyped. Results were compared with 183 publicly available unaffected control exomes from 1000 Genomes and CEPH (Centre d'etude du polymorphisme humain) samples genotyped on the same platform. A further 432 suicide decedents were also genotyped as non-asthma suicide controls. Genotyping was done using the Infinium HumanExome BeadChip. For analysis, we used the pedigree extension of Variant Annotation, Analysis and Search Tool (pVAAST) to calculate the disease burden of each gene. The Phenotype Driven Variant Ontological Re-ranking tool (Phevor) then re-ranked our pVAAST results in context of the phenotype. Using asthma as a seed phenotype, Phevor traversed biomedical ontologies and identified genes with similar biological properties to those known to

Identifying rare variants for genetic risk through a combined pedigree and phenotype approach: application to suicide and asthma

PubMed Central

Darlington, T M; Pimentel, R; Smith, K; Bakian, A V; Jerominski, L; Cardon, J; Camp, N J; Callor, W B; Grey, T; Singleton, M; Yandell, M; Renshaw, P F; Yurgelun-Todd, D A; Gray, D; Coon, H

2014-01-01

Suicidal behavior is a complex disorder, with evidence for genetic risk independent of other genetic risk factors including psychiatric disorders. Since 1996, over 3000 DNA samples from Utah suicide decedents have been collected and banked for research use through the Utah Medical Examiner. In addition, over 12 000 Utah suicides were identified through examination of death certificates back to 1904. By linking this data with the Utah Population Database, we have identified multiple extended pedigrees with increased risk for suicide completion. A number of medical conditions co-occur with suicide, including asthma, and this study was undertaken to identify genetic risk common to asthma and suicide. This study tests the hypothesis that a particular comorbid condition may identify a more homogeneous genetic subgroup, facilitating the identification of specific genetic risk factors in that group. From pedigrees at increased risk for suicide, we identified three pedigrees also at significantly increased familial risk for asthma. Five suicide decedents from each of these pedigrees, plus an additional three decedents not from these pedigrees with diagnosed asthma, and 10 decedents with close relatives with asthma were genotyped. Results were compared with 183 publicly available unaffected control exomes from 1000 Genomes and CEPH (Centre d'etude du polymorphisme humain) samples genotyped on the same platform. A further 432 suicide decedents were also genotyped as non-asthma suicide controls. Genotyping was done using the Infinium HumanExome BeadChip. For analysis, we used the pedigree extension of Variant Annotation, Analysis and Search Tool (pVAAST) to calculate the disease burden of each gene. The Phenotype Driven Variant Ontological Re-ranking tool (Phevor) then re-ranked our pVAAST results in context of the phenotype. Using asthma as a seed phenotype, Phevor traversed biomedical ontologies and identified genes with similar biological properties to those known to

Patient selection for day case-eligible surgery: identifying those at high risk for major complications.

PubMed

Mathis, Michael R; Naughton, Norah N; Shanks, Amy M; Freundlich, Robert E; Pannucci, Christopher J; Chu, Yijia; Haus, Jason; Morris, Michelle; Kheterpal, Sachin

2013-12-01

Due to economic pressures and improvements in perioperative care, outpatient surgical procedures have become commonplace. However, risk factors for outpatient surgical morbidity and mortality remain unclear. There are no multicenter clinical data guiding patient selection for outpatient surgery. The authors hypothesize that specific risk factors increase the likelihood of day case-eligible surgical morbidity or mortality. The authors analyzed adults undergoing common day case-eligible surgical procedures by using the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2010. Common day case-eligible surgical procedures were identified as the most common outpatient surgical Current Procedural Terminology codes provided by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan and Medicare publications. Study variables included anthropometric data and relevant medical comorbidities. The primary outcome was morbidity or mortality within 72 h. Intraoperative complications included adverse cardiovascular events; postoperative complications included surgical, anesthetic, and medical adverse events. Of 244,397 surgeries studied, 232 (0.1%) experienced early perioperative morbidity or mortality. Seven independent risk factors were identified while controlling for surgical complexity: overweight body mass index, obese body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of transient ischemic attack/stroke, hypertension, previous cardiac surgical intervention, and prolonged operative time. The demonstrated low rate of perioperative morbidity and mortality confirms the safety of current day case-eligible surgeries. The authors obtained the first prospectively collected data identifying risk factors for morbidity and mortality with day case-eligible surgery. The results of the study provide new data to advance patient-selection processes for outpatient surgery.

Identifying At-Risk Individuals for Insomnia Using the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test.

PubMed

Kalmbach, David A; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J Todd; Drake, Christopher L

2016-02-01

A primary focus of the National Institute of Mental Health's current strategic plan is "predicting" who is at risk for disease. As such, the current investigation examined the utility of premorbid sleep reactivity in identifying a specific and manageable population at elevated risk for future insomnia. A community-based sample of adults (n = 2,892; 59.3% female; 47.9 ± 13.3 y old) with no lifetime history of insomnia or depression completed web-based surveys across three annual assessments. Participants reported parental history of insomnia, demographic characteristics, sleep reactivity on the Ford Insomnia in Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and insomnia symptoms. DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were used to determine insomnia classification. Baseline FIRST scores were used to predict incident insomnia at 1-y follow-up. Two clinically meaningful FIRST cutoff values were identified: FIRST ≥ 16 (sensitivity 77%; specificity 50%; odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, P < 0.001); and FIRST ≥ 18 (sensitivity 62%; specificity 67%; OR = 3.32, P < 0.001). Notably, both FIRST cut-points outperformed known maternal (OR = 1.49-1.59, P < 0.01) and paternal history (P = NS) in predicting insomnia onset, even after controlling for stress exposure and demographic characteristics. Of the incident cases, insomniacs with highly reactive sleep systems reported longer sleep onset latencies (FIRST ≥ 16: 65 min; FIRST ≥ 18: 68 min) than participants with nonreactive insomnia (FIRST < 16: 37 min; FIRST < 18: 44 min); these groups did not differ on any other sleep parameters. The current study established a cost- and time-effective strategy for identifying individuals at elevated risk for insomnia based on trait sleep reactivity. The FIRST accurately identifies a focused target population in which the psychobiological processes complicit in insomnia onset and progression can be better investigated, thus improving future preventive efforts. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

High-Density Genotyping of Immune Loci in Koreans and Europeans Identifies Eight New Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk Loci

PubMed Central

Kim, Kwangwoo; Bang, So-Young; Lee, Hye-Soon; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Jun, Jae-Bum; Yoo, Dae Hyun; Kang, Young Mo; Kim, Seong-Kyu; Suh, Chang-Hee; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Lee, Shin-Seok; Lee, Jisoo; Chung, Won Tae; Choe, Jung-Yoon; Shin, Hyoung Doo; Lee, Jong-Young; Han, Bok-Ghee; Nath, Swapan K.; Eyre, Steve; Bowes, John; Pappas, Dimitrios A.; Kremer, Joel M.; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Ärlestig, Lisbeth; Okada, Yukinori; Diogo, Dorothée; Liao, Katherine P.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Martin, Javier; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K.; Worthington, Jane; Greenberg, Jeffrey D.; Plenge, Robert M.; Bae, Sang-Cheol

2015-01-01

Objective A highly polygenic etiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well-elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. Methods We analyzed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and GWAS array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data, for a total sample size of 9,299 Korean and 45,790 European case-control samples. Results We identified 8 new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1–FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10−8), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the 7 new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of SNPs that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. Conclusion This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases. PMID:24532676

High-density genotyping of immune loci in Koreans and Europeans identifies eight new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci.

PubMed

Kim, Kwangwoo; Bang, So-Young; Lee, Hye-Soon; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Choi, Chan-Bum; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Jun, Jae-Bum; Yoo, Dae Hyun; Kang, Young Mo; Kim, Seong-Kyu; Suh, Chang-Hee; Shim, Seung-Cheol; Lee, Shin-Seok; Lee, Jisoo; Chung, Won Tae; Choe, Jung-Yoon; Shin, Hyoung Doo; Lee, Jong-Young; Han, Bok-Ghee; Nath, Swapan K; Eyre, Steve; Bowes, John; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Kremer, Joel M; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Ärlestig, Lisbeth; Okada, Yukinori; Diogo, Dorothée; Liao, Katherine P; Karlson, Elizabeth W; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rantapää-Dahlqvist, Solbritt; Martin, Javier; Klareskog, Lars; Padyukov, Leonid; Gregersen, Peter K; Worthington, Jane; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Plenge, Robert M; Bae, Sang-Cheol

2015-03-01

A highly polygenic aetiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. We analysed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anticitrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data for a total sample size of 9299 Korean and 45,790 European case-control samples. We identified eight new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1-FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5×10(-8)), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the seven new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk factors identified for certain lymphoma subtypes

Cancer.gov

In a large international collaborative analysis of risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), scientists were able to quantify risk associated with medical history, lifestyle factors, family history of blood or lymph-borne cancers, and occupation for 11

Pleiotropic associations of risk variants identified for other cancers with lung cancer risk: the PAGE and TRICL consortia.

PubMed

Park, S Lani; Fesinmeyer, Megan D; Timofeeva, Maria; Caberto, Christian P; Kocarnik, Jonathan M; Han, Younghun; Love, Shelly-Ann; Young, Alicia; Dumitrescu, Logan; Lin, Yi; Goodloe, Robert; Wilkens, Lynne R; Hindorff, Lucia; Fowke, Jay H; Carty, Cara; Buyske, Steven; Schumacher, Frederick R; Butler, Anne; Dilks, Holli; Deelman, Ewa; Cote, Michele L; Chen, Wei; Pande, Mala; Christiani, David C; Field, John K; Bickebller, Heike; Risch, Angela; Heinrich, Joachim; Brennan, Paul; Wang, Yufei; Eisen, Timothy; Houlston, Richard S; Thun, Michael; Albanes, Demetrius; Caporaso, Neil; Peters, Ulrike; North, Kari E; Heiss, Gerardo; Crawford, Dana C; Bush, William S; Haiman, Christopher A; Landi, Maria Teresa; Hung, Rayjean J; Kooperberg, Charles; Amos, Christopher I; Le Marchand, Loïc; Cheng, Iona

2014-04-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with specific cancers. A few of these risk regions have been associated with more than one cancer site; however, a systematic evaluation of the associations between risk variants for other cancers and lung cancer risk has yet to be performed. We included 18023 patients with lung cancer and 60543 control subjects from two consortia, Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) and Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung (TRICL). We examined 165 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were previously associated with at least one of 16 non-lung cancer sites. Study-specific logistic regression results underwent meta-analysis, and associations were also examined by race/ethnicity, histological cell type, sex, and smoking status. A Bonferroni-corrected P value of 2.5×10(-5) was used to assign statistical significance. The breast cancer SNP LSP1 rs3817198 was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 1.14; P = 2.8×10(-6)). This association was strongest for women with adenocarcinoma (P = 1.2×10(-4)) and not statistically significant in men (P = .14) with this cell type (P het by sex = .10). Two glioma risk variants, TERT rs2853676 and CDKN2BAS1 rs4977756, which are located in regions previously associated with lung cancer, were associated with increased risk of adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.22; P = 1.1×10(-8)) and squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 1.13; CI = 1.07 to 1.19; P = 2.5×10(-5)), respectively. Our findings demonstrate a novel pleiotropic association between the breast cancer LSP1 risk region marked by variant rs3817198 and lung cancer risk.

Use of a risk scoring tool to identify higher-risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for an antiretroviral-based HIV-1 prevention intervention.

PubMed

Irungu, Elizabeth M; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly; Ngure, Kenneth; Katabira, Elly; Bulya, Nulu; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Odoyo, Josephine; Asiimwe, Stephen; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

2016-10-17

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduce HIV-1 transmission within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. Prioritizing couples at highest HIV-1 transmission risk for ART and PrEP would maximize impact and minimize costs. The Partners Demonstration Project is an open-label, delivery study of integrated PrEP and ART for HIV-1 prevention among high risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda. We evaluated the feasibility of using a validated risk score that weighs a combination of easily measurable factors (age, children, marital status, male circumcision status, condom use, plasma HIV-1 levels) to identify couples at highest risk for HIV-1 transmission for enrollment. Couples scoring ≥5 met the risk score eligibility criteria. We screened 1694 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples and enrolled 1013. Of the screened couples, 1331 (78.6 %) scored ≥5 (with an expected incidence >3 % per year) and 76 % of these entered the study. The median age of the HIV-1 uninfected partner was 29 years [IQR 26, 36] and 20 % were <25 years of age. The HIV-1 uninfected partner was male in 67 % of partnerships, 33 % of whom were uncircumcised, 57 % of couples had no children, and 65 % reported unprotected sex in the month prior to enrollment. Among HIV-1 infected partners, 41 % had plasma viral load >50,000 copies/ml. A risk scoring tool identified HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for a demonstration project of PrEP and ART with high HIV-1 risk. The tool may be feasible for research and public health settings to maximize efficiency and minimize HIV-1 prevention costs.

Strategies to predict rheumatoid arthritis development in at-risk populations

PubMed Central

van der Helm-van Mil, Annette H.

2016-01-01

The development of RA is conceived as a multiple hit process and the more hits that are acquired, the greater the risk of developing clinically apparent RA. Several at-risk phases have been described, including the presence of genetic and environmental factors, RA-related autoantibodies and biomarkers and symptoms. Intervention in these preclinical phases may be more effective compared with intervention in the clinical phase. One prerequisite for preventive strategies is the ability to estimate an individual’s risk adequately. This review evaluates the ability to predict the risk of RA in the various preclinical stages. Present data suggest that a combination of genetic and environmental factors is helpful to identify persons at high risk of RA among first-degree relatives. Furthermore, a combination of symptoms, antibody characteristics and environmental factors has been shown to be relevant for risk prediction in seropositive arthralgia patients. Large prospective studies are needed to validate and improve risk prediction in preclinical disease stages. PMID:25096602

PTEN IDENTIFIED AS IMPORTANT RISK FACTOR OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE

PubMed Central

Hosgood, H Dean; Menashe, Idan; He, Xingzhou; Chanock, Stephen; Lan, Qing

2009-01-01

Common genetic variation may play an important role in altering chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk. In Xuanwei, China, the COPD rate is more than twice the Chinese national average, and COPD is strongly associated with in-home coal use. To identify genetic variation that may be associated with COPD in a population with substantial in-home coal smoke exposures, we evaluated 1,261 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 380 candidate genes potentially relevant for cancer and other human diseases in a population-based case-control study in Xuanwei (53 cases; 107 controls). PTEN was the most significantly associated gene with COPD in a minP analysis using 20,000 permutations (P = 0.00005). SNP-based analyses found that homozygote variant carriers of PTEN rs701848 (ORTT = 0.12, 95%CI = 0.03 - 0.47) had a significant decreased risk of COPD. PTEN, or phosphatase and tensin homolog, is an important regulator of cell cycle progression and cellular survival via the AKT signaling pathway. Our exploratory analysis suggests that genetic variation in PTEN may be an important risk factor of COPD in Xuanwei. However, due to the small sample size, additional studies are needed to evaluate these associations within Xuanwei and other populations with coal smoke exposures. PMID:19625176

School-based Screening to Identify Children At Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Barriers and Implications

PubMed Central

Barry, Tammy D.; Sturner, Raymond A.; Seymour, Karen; Howard, Barbara H.; McGoron, Lucy; Bergmann, Paul; Kent, Ronald; Sullivan, Casey; Tomeny, Theodore S.; Pierce, Jessica S.; Coin, Kristen L.; Goodlad, James K.; Werle, Nichole

2014-01-01

This report describes a school-based screening project to improve early identification of children at risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and communicate these concerns to parents, recommending that they contact their child’s primary care provider (PCP). Of 17,440 eligible children in first through fifth grades in five school districts, 47.0% of parents provided required written consent, and teachers completed 70.4% of the online screeners (using the Vanderbilt AD/HD Diagnostic Teacher Rating Scale). Of 5,772 screeners completed, 18.1% of children (n = 1,044) were identified as at risk. Parents of at-risk children were contacted to explain risk status and recommended to visit their child’s PCP for further evaluation. It was not possible to contact 39.1% of parents of at-risk children. Of the 636 parents of at-risk children who could be contacted, 53.1% (n = 338) verbally accepted the recommendation to follow-up with their PCP, which was not related to ADHD symptom severity. Parents of children with IEPs or related services were more likely to accept the recommendation to visit the PCP. Our exploration of the potential for school-based screening for ADHD identified a number of barriers to successful execution, but the data also indicated that this is an important problem to address. PMID:27642209

Acute respiratory distress syndrome without identifiable risk factors: A secondary analysis of the ARDS network trials.

PubMed

Harrington, John S; Schenck, Edward J; Oromendia, Clara; Choi, Augustine M K; Siempos, Ilias I

2018-06-02

We examined whether patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) lacking risk factors are enrolled in therapeutic trials and assessed their clinical characteristics and outcomes. We performed a secondary analysis of patient-level data pooled from the ARMA, ALVEOLI, FACTT, ALTA and EDEN ARDSNet randomized controlled trials obtained from the Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center of the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute. We compared baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes (before and after adjustment using Poisson regression model) of ARDS patients with versus without risk factors. Of 3733 patients with ARDS, 81 (2.2%) did not have an identifiable risk factor. Patients without risk factors were younger, had lower baseline severity of illness, were more likely to have the ARDS resolve rapidly (i.e., within 24 h) (p < 0.001) and they had more ventilator-free days (median 21; p = 0.003), more intensive care unit-free days (18; p = 0.010), and more non-pulmonary organ failure-free days (24; p < 0.001) than comparators (17, 14 and 18, respectively). Differences persisted after adjustment for potential confounders. Patients with ARDS without identifiable risk factors are enrolled in therapeutic trials and may have better outcomes, including a higher proportion of rapidly resolving ARDS, than those with risk factors. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale. Methods HFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk. Results Results showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China. Conclusions The autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD

Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

2018-05-01

Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture: complexity or simplicity? A systematic review.

PubMed

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille; Abrahamsen, Bo; Brixen, Kim

2013-08-01

A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence, and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance of each tool was sufficient for practical use, and last, to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified; 20 had been externally validated, however, only six tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable methodological quality. None of the tools performed consistently better than the others and simple tools (i.e., the Osteoporosis Self-assessment Tool [OST], Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument [ORAI], and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator [Garvan]) often did as well or better than more complex tools (i.e., Simple Calculated Risk Estimation Score [SCORE], WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], and Qfracture). No studies determined the effectiveness of tools in selecting patients for therapy and thus improving fracture outcomes. High-quality studies in randomized design with population-based cohorts with different case mixes are needed. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

[Predicting individual risk of high healthcare cost to identify complex chronic patients].

PubMed

Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez-Pérez, Inma; Ibern, Pere; Carreras, Marc; Pérez-Berruezo, Xavier; Inoriza, José M

2014-01-01

To develop a predictive model for the risk of high consumption of healthcare resources, and assess the ability of the model to identify complex chronic patients. A cross-sectional study was performed within a healthcare management organization by using individual data from 2 consecutive years (88,795 people). The dependent variable consisted of healthcare costs above the 95th percentile (P95), including all services provided by the organization and pharmaceutical consumption outside of the institution. The predictive variables were age, sex, morbidity-based on clinical risk groups (CRG)-and selected data from previous utilization (use of hospitalization, use of high-cost drugs in ambulatory care, pharmaceutical expenditure). A univariate descriptive analysis was performed. We constructed a logistic regression model with a 95% confidence level and analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Individuals incurring costs >P95 accumulated 44% of total healthcare costs and were concentrated in ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) categories related to multiple chronic diseases. All variables were statistically significant except for sex. The model had a sensitivity of 48.4% (CI: 46.9%-49.8%), specificity of 97.2% (CI: 97.0%-97.3%), PPV of 46.5% (CI: 45.0%-47.9%), and an AUC of 0.897 (CI: 0.892 to 0.902). High consumption of healthcare resources is associated with complex chronic morbidity. A model based on age, morbidity, and prior utilization is able to predict high-cost risk and identify a target population requiring proactive care. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Identifying sex-specific risk factors for low bone mineral density in adolescent runners.

PubMed

Tenforde, Adam Sebastian; Fredericson, Michael; Sayres, Lauren Carter; Cutti, Phil; Sainani, Kristin Lynn

2015-06-01

Adolescent runners may be at risk for low bone mineral density (BMD) associated with sports participation. Few prior investigations have evaluated bone health in young runners, particularly males. To characterize sex-specific risk factors for low BMD in adolescent runners. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Training characteristics, fracture history, eating behaviors and attitudes, and menstrual history were measured using online questionnaires. A food frequency questionnaire was used to identify dietary patterns and measure calcium intake. Runners (female: n = 94, male: n = 42) completed dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) to measure lumbar spine (LS) and total body less head (TBLH) BMD and body composition values, including android-to-gynoid (A:G) fat mass ratio. The BMD was standardized to Z-scores using age, sex, and race/ethnicity reference values. Questionnaire values were combined with DXA values to determine risk factors associated with differences in BMD Z-scores in LS and TBLH and low bone mass (defined as BMD Z-score ≤-1). In multivariable analyses, risk factors for lower LS BMD Z-scores in girls included lower A:G ratio, being shorter, and the combination of (interaction between) current menstrual irregularity and a history of fracture (all P < .01). Later age of menarche, lower A:G ratio, lower lean mass, and drinking less milk were associated with lower TBLH BMD Z-scores (P < .01). In boys, lower body mass index (BMI) Z-scores and the belief that being thinner improves performance were associated with lower LS and TBLH BMD Z-scores (all P < .05); lower A:G ratio was additionally associated with lower TBLH Z-scores (P < .01). Thirteen girls (14%) and 9 boys (21%) had low bone mass. Girls with a BMI ≤17.5 kg/m(2) or both menstrual irregularity and a history of fracture were significantly more likely to have low bone mass. Boys with a BMI ≤17.5 kg/m(2) and belief that thinness improves performance were significantly more likely to have

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of European and Asian-ancestry samples identifies three novel loci associated with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Chen, D T; Jiang, X; Akula, N; Shugart, Y Y; Wendland, J R; Steele, C J M; Kassem, L; Park, J-H; Chatterjee, N; Jamain, S; Cheng, A; Leboyer, M; Muglia, P; Schulze, T G; Cichon, S; Nöthen, M M; Rietschel, M; McMahon, F J; Farmer, A; McGuffin, P; Craig, I; Lewis, C; Hosang, G; Cohen-Woods, S; Vincent, J B; Kennedy, J L; Strauss, J

2013-02-01

Meta-analyses of bipolar disorder (BD) genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several genome-wide significant signals in European-ancestry samples, but so far account for little of the inherited risk. We performed a meta-analysis of ∼750,000 high-quality genetic markers on a combined sample of ∼14,000 subjects of European and Asian-ancestry (phase I). The most significant findings were further tested in an extended sample of ∼17,700 cases and controls (phase II). The results suggest novel association findings near the genes TRANK1 (LBA1), LMAN2L and PTGFR. In phase I, the most significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9834970 near TRANK1, was significant at the P=2.4 × 10(-11) level, with no heterogeneity. Supportive evidence for prior association findings near ANK3 and a locus on chromosome 3p21.1 was also observed. The phase II results were similar, although the heterogeneity test became significant for several SNPs. On the basis of these results and other established risk loci, we used the method developed by Park et al. to estimate the number, and the effect size distribution, of BD risk loci that could still be found by GWAS methods. We estimate that >63,000 case-control samples would be needed to identify the ∼105 BD risk loci discoverable by GWAS, and that these will together explain <6% of the inherited risk. These results support previous GWAS findings and identify three new candidate genes for BD. Further studies are needed to replicate these findings and may potentially lead to identification of functional variants. Sample size will remain a limiting factor in the discovery of common alleles associated with BD.

Genome-wide Association Study Identifies Shared Risk Loci Common to Two Malignancies in Golden Retrievers

PubMed Central

Tonomura, Noriko; Elvers, Ingegerd; Thomas, Rachael; Megquier, Kate; Turner-Maier, Jason; Howald, Cedric; Sarver, Aaron L.; Swofford, Ross; Frantz, Aric M.; Ito, Daisuke; Mauceli, Evan; Arendt, Maja; Noh, Hyun Ji; Koltookian, Michele; Biagi, Tara; Fryc, Sarah; Williams, Christina; Avery, Anne C.; Kim, Jong-Hyuk; Barber, Lisa; Burgess, Kristine; Lander, Eric S.; Karlsson, Elinor K.; Azuma, Chieko

2015-01-01

Dogs, with their breed-determined limited genetic background, are great models of human disease including cancer. Canine B-cell lymphoma and hemangiosarcoma are both malignancies of the hematologic system that are clinically and histologically similar to human B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma and angiosarcoma, respectively. Golden retrievers in the US show significantly elevated lifetime risk for both B-cell lymphoma (6%) and hemangiosarcoma (20%). We conducted genome-wide association studies for hemangiosarcoma and B-cell lymphoma, identifying two shared predisposing loci. The two associated loci are located on chromosome 5, and together contribute ~20% of the risk of developing these cancers. Genome-wide p-values for the top SNP of each locus are 4.6×10-7 and 2.7×10-6, respectively. Whole genome resequencing of nine cases and controls followed by genotyping and detailed analysis identified three shared and one B-cell lymphoma specific risk haplotypes within the two loci, but no coding changes were associated with the risk haplotypes. Gene expression analysis of B-cell lymphoma tumors revealed that carrying the risk haplotypes at the first locus is associated with down-regulation of several nearby genes including the proximal gene TRPC6, a transient receptor Ca2+-channel involved in T-cell activation, among other functions. The shared risk haplotype in the second locus overlaps the vesicle transport and release gene STX8. Carrying the shared risk haplotype is associated with gene expression changes of 100 genes enriched for pathways involved in immune cell activation. Thus, the predisposing germ-line mutations in B-cell lymphoma and hemangiosarcoma appear to be regulatory, and affect pathways involved in T-cell mediated immune response in the tumor. This suggests that the interaction between the immune system and malignant cells plays a common role in the tumorigenesis of these relatively different cancers. PMID:25642983

Identifying patients with AAA with the highest risk following endovascular repair.

PubMed

Cadili, Ali; Turnbull, Robert; Hervas-Malo, Marilou; Ghosh, Sunita; Chyczij, Harold

2012-08-01

It has been demonstrated that endovascular repair of arterial disease results in reduced perioperative morbidity and mortality compared to open surgical repair. The rates of complications and need for reinterventions, however, have been found to be higher than that in open repair. The purpose of this study was to identify the predictors of endograft complications and mortality in patients undergoing endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair; specifically, our aim was to identify a subset of patients with AAA whose risk of periprocedure mortality was so high that they should not be offered endovascular repair. We undertook a prospective review of patients with AAA receiving endovascular therapy at a single institution. Collected variables included age, gender, date of procedure, indication for procedure, size of aneurysm (where applicable), type of endograft used, presence of rupture, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class, major medical comorbidities, type of anesthesia (general, epidural, or local), length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and length of hospital stay. These factors were correlated with the study outcomes (overall mortality, graft complications, morbidity, and reintervention) using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. A total of 199 patients underwent endovascular AAA repair during the study period. The ICU stay, again, was significantly correlated with the primary outcomes (death and graft complications). In addition, length of hospital stay greater than 3 days, also emerged as a statistically significant predictor of graft complications in this subgroup (P = .024). Survival analysis for patients with AAA revealed that age over 85 years and ICU stay were predictive of decreased survival. Statistical analysis for other subgroups of patients (inflammatory AAA or dissection) was not performed due to the small numbers in these subgroups. Patients with AAA greater than 85 years of age are at a greater risk of mortality

A Phase 1/2 Trial of Brief Androgen Suppression and Stereotactic Radiation Therapy (FASTR) for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bauman, Glenn, E-mail: Glenn.bauman@lhsc.on.ca; Ferguson, Michelle; Lock, Michael

2015-07-15

Purpose: To initiate a phase 1/2 trial to examine the tolerability of a condensed combined-modality protocol for high-risk prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Men scoring ≥3 on the Vulnerable Elderly Scale (VES) or refusing conventionally fractionated treatment for high-risk prostate cancer were eligible to participate. Androgen suppression was delivered for 12 months, and radiation therapy was delivered using 25 Gy to pelvic nodes delivered synchronously with 40 Gy to the prostate given as 1 fraction per week over 5 weeks. The phase 1 component included predetermined stopping rules based on 6-month treatment-related toxicity, with trial suspension specified if there were ≥6 of 15more » patients (40%) or ≥3 of 15 (20%) who experienced grade ≥2 or ≥3 gastrointestinal (GI) or genitourinary (GU) toxicity, respectively. Results: Sixteen men were enrolled, with 7 men meeting the criteria of VES ≥3 and 9 men having a VES <3 but choosing the condensed treatment. One man was not treated owing to discovery of a synchronous primary rectal cancer. Four patients (26%) experienced grade ≥2 toxicity at 6 weeks after treatment. There were 9 of 15 (60%) who experienced grade ≥2 GI or GU toxicity and 4 of 15 (26%) grade ≥3 GI or GU toxicity at 6 months, and 5 of 15 (30%) grade ≥2 GI and GU toxicity at 6 months. A review of the 15 cases did not identify any remedial changes, thus the phase 1 criteria were not met. Conclusion: This novel condensed treatment had higher than anticipated late toxicities and was terminated before phase 2 accrual. Treatment factors, such as inclusion of pelvic lymph node radiation therapy, planning constraints, and treatment margins, or patient factors related to the specific frail elderly population may be contributing.« less

Identifying areas of high risk of human exposure to coccidioidomycosis in Texas using serology data from dogs.

PubMed

Gautam, R; Srinath, I; Clavijo, A; Szonyi, B; Bani-Yaghoub, M; Park, S; Ivanek, R

2013-03-01

Coccidioidomycosis or Valley Fever (VF) is an emerging soil-borne fungal zoonosis affecting humans and animals. Most non-human cases of VF are found in dogs, which we hypothesize may serve as sentinels for estimating the human exposure risk. The objective of this study is to use the spatial and temporal distribution and clusters of dogs seropositive for VF to define the geographic area in Texas where VF is endemic, and thus presents a higher risk of exposure to humans. The included specimens were seropositive dogs tested at a major diagnostic laboratory between 1999 and 2009. Data were aggregated by zip code and smoothed by empirical Bayesian estimation to develop an isopleth map of VF seropositive rates using kriging. Clusters of seropositive dogs were identified using the spatial scan test. Both the isopleth map and the scan test identified an area with a high rate of VF-seropositive dogs in the western and southwestern parts of Texas (relative risk = 31). This location overlapped an area that was previously identified as a potential endemic region based on human surveys. Together, these data suggest that dogs may serve as sentinels for estimating the risk of human exposure to VF. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Genome-wide pathway-based association analysis identifies risk pathways associated with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Zhang, Mingming; Mu, Hongbo; Shang, Zhenwei; Kang, Kai; Lv, Hongchao; Duan, Lian; Li, Jin; Chen, Xinren; Teng, Yanbo; Jiang, Yongshuai; Zhang, Ruijie

2017-01-06

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease. It is generally believed that it is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, but the precise pathogenesis of PD is unknown to date. In this study, we performed a pathway analysis based on genome-wide association study (GWAS) to detect risk pathways of PD in three GWAS datasets. We first mapped all SNP markers to autosomal genes in each GWAS dataset. Then, we evaluated gene risk values using the minimum P-value of the tagSNPs. We took a pathway as a unit to identify the risk pathways based on the cumulative risks of the genes in the pathway. Finally, we combine the analysis results of the three datasets to detect the high risk pathways associated with PD. We found there were five same pathways in the three datasets. Besides, we also found there were five pathways which were shared in two datasets. Most of these pathways are associated with nervoussystem. Five pathways had been reported to be PD-related pathways in the previous literature. Our findings also implied that there was a close association between immune response and PD. Continued investigation of these pathways will further help us explain the pathogenesis of PD. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Genome-wide association analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma identifies pleiotropic risk loci

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Philip J.; Sud, Amit; Mitchell, Jonathan S.; Henrion, Marc; Orlando, Giulia; Lenive, Oleg; Broderick, Peter; Speedy, Helen E.; Johnson, David C.; Kaiser, Martin; Weinhold, Niels; Cooke, Rosie; Sunter, Nicola J.; Jackson, Graham H.; Summerfield, Geoffrey; Harris, Robert J.; Pettitt, Andrew R.; Allsup, David J.; Carmichael, Jonathan; Bailey, James R.; Pratt, Guy; Rahman, Thahira; Pepper, Chris; Fegan, Chris; von Strandmann, Elke Pogge; Engert, Andreas; Försti, Asta; Chen, Bowang; Filho, Miguel Inacio Da Silva; Thomsen, Hauke; Hoffmann, Per; Noethen, Markus M.; Eisele, Lewin; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Allan, James M.; Swerdlow, Anthony J.; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Catovsky, Daniel; Morgan, Gareth J.; Hemminki, Kari; Houlston, Richard S.

2017-01-01

B-cell malignancies (BCM) originate from the same cell of origin, but at different maturation stages and have distinct clinical phenotypes. Although genetic risk variants for individual BCMs have been identified, an agnostic, genome-wide search for shared genetic susceptibility has not been performed. We explored genome-wide association studies of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL, N = 1,842), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL, N = 1,465) and multiple myeloma (MM, N = 3,790). We identified a novel pleiotropic risk locus at 3q22.2 (NCK1, rs11715604, P = 1.60 × 10-9) with opposing effects between CLL (P = 1.97 × 10-8) and HL (P = 3.31 × 10-3). Eight established non-HLA risk loci showed pleiotropic associations. Within the HLA region, Ser37 + Phe37 in HLA-DRB1 (P = 1.84 × 10-12) was associated with increased CLL and HL risk (P = 4.68 × 10-12), and reduced MM risk (P = 1.12 × 10-2), and Gly70 in HLA-DQB1 (P = 3.15 × 10-10) showed opposing effects between CLL (P = 3.52 × 10-3) and HL (P = 3.41 × 10-9). By integrating eQTL, Hi-C and ChIP-seq data, we show that the pleiotropic risk loci are enriched for B-cell regulatory elements, as well as an over-representation of binding of key B-cell transcription factors. These data identify shared biological pathways influencing the development of CLL, HL and MM. The identification of these risk loci furthers our understanding of the aetiological basis of BCMs.

Identifying mismatches between institutional perceptions of water-related risk drivers and water management strategies in three river basin areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juhola, Sirkku; Monge Monge, Adrián; Käkönen, Mira; Kanninen, Markku; Nygren, Anja

2017-07-01

Water-related risks and vulnerabilities are driven by variety of stressors, including climate and land use change, as well as changes in socio-economic positions and political landscapes. Hence, water governance, which addresses risks and vulnerabilities, should target multiple stressors. We analyze the institutional perceptions of the drivers and strategies for managing water-related risks and vulnerabilities in three regionally important river basin areas located in Finland, Mexico, and Laos. Our analysis is based on data gathered through participatory workshops and complemented by qualitative content analysis of relevant policy documents. The identified drivers and proposed risk reduction strategies showed the multidimensionality and context-specificity of water-related risks and vulnerabilities across study areas. Most of the identified drivers were seen to increase risks, but some of the drivers were positive trends, and drivers also included also policy instruments that can both increase or decrease risks. Nevertheless, all perceived drivers were not addressed with suggested risk reduction strategies. In particular, most of the risk reduction strategies were incremental adjustments, although many of the drivers classified as most important were large-scale trends, such as climate change, land use changes and increase in foreign investments. We argue that there is a scale mismatch between the identified drivers and suggested strategies, which questions the opportunity to manage the drivers by single-scale incremental adjustments. Our study suggests that for more sustainable risk and vulnerability reduction, the root causes of water-related risks and vulnerabilities should be addressed through adaptive multi-scale governance that carefully considers the context-specificity and the multidimensionality of the associated drivers and stressors.

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Using Participatory Risk Mapping (PRM) to Identify and Understand People's Perceptions of Crop Loss to Animals in Uganda

PubMed Central

Webber, Amanda D.; Hill, Catherine M.

2014-01-01

Considering how people perceive risks to their livelihoods from local wildlife is central to (i) understanding the impact of crop damage by animals on local people and (ii) recognising how this influences their interactions with, and attitudes towards, wildlife. Participatory risk mapping (PRM) is a simple, analytical tool that can be used to identify and classify risk within communities. Here we use it to explore local people's perceptions of crop damage by wildlife and the animal species involved. Interviews (n = 93, n = 76) and seven focus groups were conducted in four villages around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda during 2004 and 2005. Farms (N = 129) were simultaneously monitored for crop loss. Farmers identified damage by wildlife as the most significant risk to their crops; risk maps highlighted its anomalous status compared to other anticipated challenges to agricultural production. PRM was further used to explore farmers' perceptions of animal species causing crop damage and the results of this analysis compared with measured crop losses. Baboons (Papio anubis) were considered the most problematic species locally but measurements of loss indicate this perceived severity was disproportionately high. In contrast goats (Capra hircus) were considered only a moderate risk, yet risk of damage by this species was significant. Surprisingly, for wild pigs (Potamochoerus sp), perceptions of severity were not as high as damage incurred might have predicted, although perceived incidence was greater than recorded frequency of damage events. PRM can assist researchers and practitioners to identify and explore perceptions of the risk of crop damage by wildlife. As this study highlights, simply quantifying crop loss does not determine issues that are important to local people nor the complex relationships between perceived risk factors. Furthermore, as PRM is easily transferable it may contribute to the identification and development of standardised approaches

Identifying Voxels at Risk for Progression in Glioblastoma Based on Dosimetry, Physiologic and Metabolic MRI.

PubMed

Anwar, Mekhail; Molinaro, Annette M; Morin, Olivier; Chang, Susan M; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A; Nelson, Sarah J; Lupo, Janine M

2017-09-01

Despite the longstanding role of radiation in cancer treatment and the presence of advanced, high-resolution imaging techniques, delineation of voxels at-risk for progression remains purely a geometric expansion of anatomic images, missing subclinical disease at risk for recurrence while treating potentially uninvolved tissue and increasing toxicity. This remains despite the modern ability to precisely shape radiation fields. A striking example of this is the treatment of glioblastoma, a highly infiltrative tumor that may benefit from accurate identification of subclinical disease. In this study, we hypothesize that parameters from physiologic and metabolic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at diagnosis could predict the likelihood of voxel progression at radiographic recurrence in glioblastoma by identifying voxel characteristics that indicate subclinical disease. Integrating dosimetry can reveal its effect on voxel outcome, enabling risk-adapted voxel dosing. As a system example, 24 patients with glioblastoma treated with radiotherapy, temozolomide and an anti-angiogenic agent were analyzed. Pretreatment median apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), fractional anisotropy (FA), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), vessel leakage (percentage recovery), choline-to-NAA index (CNI) and dose of voxels in the T2 nonenhancing lesion (NEL), T1 post-contrast enhancing lesion (CEL) or normal-appearing volume (NAV) of brain, were calculated for voxels that progressed [NAV→NEL, CEL (N = 8,765)] and compared against those that remained stable [NAV→NAV (N = 98,665)]. Voxels that progressed (NAV→NEL) had significantly different (P < 0.01) ADC (860), FA (0.36) and CNI (0.67) versus stable voxels (804, 0.43 and 0.05, respectively), indicating increased cell turnover, edema and decreased directionality, consistent with subclinical disease. NAV→CEL voxels were more abnormal (1,014, 0.28, 2.67, respectively) and leakier (percentage recovery = 70). A predictive model

Identifying Emergency Department Patients at Low Risk for a Variceal Source of Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Klein, Lauren R; Money, Joel; Maharaj, Kaveesh; Robinson, Aaron; Lai, Tarissa; Driver, Brian E

2017-11-01

Assessing the likelihood of a variceal versus nonvariceal source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) guides therapy, but can be difficult to determine on clinical grounds. The objective of this study was to determine if there are easily ascertainable clinical and laboratory findings that can identify a patient as low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. This was a retrospective cohort study of adult ED patients with UGIB between January 2008 and December 2014 who had upper endoscopy performed during hospitalization. Clinical and laboratory data were abstracted from the medical record. The source of the UGIB was defined as variceal or nonvariceal based on endoscopic reports. Binary recursive partitioning was utilized to create a clinical decision rule. The rule was internally validated and test characteristics were calculated with 1,000 bootstrap replications. A total of 719 patients were identified; mean age was 55 years and 61% were male. There were 71 (10%) patients with a variceal UGIB identified on endoscopy. Binary recursive partitioning yielded a two-step decision rule (platelet count > 200 × 10 9 /L and an international normalized ratio [INR] < 1.3), which identified patients who were low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. For the bootstrapped samples, the rule performed with 97% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 91%-100%) and 49% specificity (95% CI = 44%-53%). Although this derivation study must be externally validated before widespread use, patients presenting to the ED with an acute UGIB with platelet count of >200 × 10 9 /L and an INR of <1.3 may be at very low risk for a variceal source of their upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Nutritional markers may identify patients with greater risk of re-admission after geriatric hip fractures.

PubMed

Stone, Austin V; Jinnah, Alexander; Wells, Brian J; Atkinson, Hal; Miller, Anna N; Futrell, Wendell M; Lenoir, Kristin; Emory, Cynthia L

2018-02-01

Osteoporotic hip fractures are increasing in prevalence with the growing elderly population. Morbidity and mortality remain high following osteoporotic hip fractures despite advances in medical and surgical treatments. The associated costs and medical burdens are increased with a re-admission following hip fracture treatment. This study sought to identify demographic and clinical values that may be a predictive model for 30-day re-admission risk following operative management of an isolated hip fracture. Between January 1, 2013 and April 30, 2015 all patients admitted to a single academic medical centre for treatment of a hip fracture were reviewed. Candidate variables included standard demographics, common laboratory values, and markers of comorbid conditions and nutrition status. A 30-day, all-cause re-admission model was created utilizing multivariate logistic regression. A total of 607 patients with hip fractures were identified and met the inclusion criteria; of those patients, 67 were re-admitted within 30 days. Univariate analysis indicates that the re-admission group had more comorbidities (p < 0.001) and lower albumin (p = 0.038) and prealbumin (p < 0.001). The final, reduced model contained 12 variables and incorporated four out of five nutritional makers with an internally, cross-validated C-statistic of 0.811 (95% CI: 0.754, 0.867). Our results indicate that specific nutritional laboratory markers at the index admission may identify patients that have a greater risk of re-admission after hip fracture. This model identifies potentially modifiable risk factors and may allow orthogeriatricians to better educate patients and better treat post-operative nutritional status and care.

A random urine test can identify patients at risk of mesalamine non-adherence: a prospective study.

PubMed

Gifford, Anne E; Berg, Anders H; Lahiff, Conor; Cheifetz, Adam S; Horowitz, Gary; Moss, Alan C

2013-02-01

Mesalamine non-adherence is common among patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and can be difficult to identify in practice. We sought to determine whether a random urine test for salicylates could be used as a marker of 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) ingestion and identify patients at risk of non-adherence. Our aim is to determine whether measurement of salicylates in a random urine sample correlates with 5-ASA levels, and predicts an individual's risk of mesalamine non-adherence. Prospective observational study. Urinary salicylates (by colorimetry) and 5-ASA (by liquid chromatography and tandem-mass spectrometry) were measured in a random urine sample at baseline in patients and controls. Mesalamine adherence was quantified by patient self-reports at enrollment and pharmacy refills of mesalamine over 6 months. A total of 93 patients with UC taking mesalamine maintenance therapy were prospectively enrolled from the clinic. Random urine salicylate levels (by colorimetry) were highly correlated with urine 5-ASA metabolite levels (by mass spectrometry; R2=0.9). A random urine salicylate level above 15 mg/dl distinguished patients who had recently taken mesalamine from controls (area under the curve value 0.9, sensitivity 95%, specificity 77%). A significant proportion of patients (27%) who self-identified as "high adherers" by an adherence questionnaire (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8) had random levels of urine salicylate below this threshold. These patients were at higher risk of objectively measured non-adherence to mesalamine over the subsequent 6 months (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-7.0). A random urine salicylate level measured in the clinic can identify patients who have not recently taken mesalamine, and who are at higher risk of longitudinal non-adherence. This test could be used to screen patients who may warrant interventions to improve adherence and prevent disease relapse.

HIV risk behaviors among African American men in Los Angeles County who self-identify as heterosexual.

PubMed

Wohl, Amy Rock; Johnson, Denise F; Lu, Sharon; Jordan, Wilbert; Beall, Gildon; Currier, Judith; Simon, Paul A

2002-11-01

There are limited data on high-risk behaviors among heterosexual African American men with HIV infection. Risk behaviors were examined in a case-control study of HIV-infected (n = 90) and uninfected (n = 272) African American men who self-identified as heterosexual. Of men who self-identified as heterosexual, 31% (n = 28) of the infected men and 16% (n = 43) of the uninfected men reported having had anal sex with men. Among the heterosexual men reporting anal sex with men, 100% of the infected and 67% of the uninfected men reported inconsistent condom use during anal sex with men. Few of the infected (12%) and uninfected (2%) men reported oral sex with other men. Of the men who self-identified as heterosexual, 46% of those who were HIV-positive and 37% of those who were HIV-negative reported anal sex with women with infrequent condom use. An increasing risk for HIV was associated with decreasing age at first sexual experience (chi2, 9.3; p = .002). A history of injecting drugs (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence intervals [CIs], 1.8, 5.4) and amphetamine (OR, 4.3; 95% CIs, 1.1, 16.7) and methamphetamine (OR, 2.9; 95% CIs, 1.4, 6.3) use were associated with HIV. Innovative HIV prevention strategies are needed that move beyond the traditional gay versus straight model to effectively access hard-to-reach African American men who self-identify as heterosexual.

Identifying Children in Middle Childhood Who Are at Risk for Reading Problems.

PubMed

Speece, Deborah L; Ritchey, Kristen D; Silverman, Rebecca; Schatschneider, Christopher; Walker, Caroline Y; Andrusik, Katryna N

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate a universal screening battery for reading that is appropriate for older elementary students in a response to intervention model. Multiple measures of reading and reading correlates were administered to 230 fourth-grade children. Teachers rated children's reading skills, academic competence, and attention. Children were classified as not-at-risk or at-risk readers based on a three-factor model reflecting reading comprehension, word recognition/decoding, and word fluency. Predictors of reading status included group-administered tests of reading comprehension, silent word reading fluency, and teacher ratings of reading problems. Inclusion of individually administered tests and growth estimates did not add substantial variance. The receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis yielded an area under the curve index of 0.90, suggesting this model may both accurately and efficiently screen older elementary students with reading problems.

Robust Intratumor Partitioning to Identify High-Risk Subregions in Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Jia; Gensheimer, Michael F.; Dong, Xinzhe

2016-08-01

Purpose: To develop an intratumor partitioning framework for identifying high-risk subregions from {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and computed tomography (CT) imaging and to test whether tumor burden associated with the high-risk subregions is prognostic of outcomes in lung cancer. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board–approved retrospective study, we analyzed the pretreatment FDG-PET and CT scans of 44 lung cancer patients treated with radiation therapy. A novel, intratumor partitioning method was developed, based on a 2-stage clustering process: first at the patient level, each tumor was over-segmented into many superpixels by k-means clustering of integrated PET andmore » CT images; next, tumor subregions were identified by merging previously defined superpixels via population-level hierarchical clustering. The volume associated with each of the subregions was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding its prognostic capability in predicting overall survival (OS) and out-of-field progression (OFP). Results: Three spatially distinct subregions were identified within each tumor that were highly robust to uncertainty in PET/CT co-registration. Among these, the volume of the most metabolically active and metabolically heterogeneous solid component of the tumor was predictive of OS and OFP on the entire cohort, with a concordance index or CI of 0.66-0.67. When restricting the analysis to patients with stage III disease (n=32), the same subregion achieved an even higher CI of 0.75 (hazard ratio 3.93, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OS, and a CI of 0.76 (hazard ratio 4.84, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OFP. In comparison, conventional imaging markers, including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and metabolic tumor volume using threshold of 50% standardized uptake value maximum, were not predictive of OS or OFP, with CI mostly below 0.60 (log-rank P>.05). Conclusion: We propose a robust

Robust Intratumor Partitioning to Identify High-Risk Subregions in Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Wu, Jia; Gensheimer, Michael F; Dong, Xinzhe; Rubin, Daniel L; Napel, Sandy; Diehn, Maximilian; Loo, Billy W; Li, Ruijiang

2016-08-01

To develop an intratumor partitioning framework for identifying high-risk subregions from (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and computed tomography (CT) imaging and to test whether tumor burden associated with the high-risk subregions is prognostic of outcomes in lung cancer. In this institutional review board-approved retrospective study, we analyzed the pretreatment FDG-PET and CT scans of 44 lung cancer patients treated with radiation therapy. A novel, intratumor partitioning method was developed, based on a 2-stage clustering process: first at the patient level, each tumor was over-segmented into many superpixels by k-means clustering of integrated PET and CT images; next, tumor subregions were identified by merging previously defined superpixels via population-level hierarchical clustering. The volume associated with each of the subregions was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis regarding its prognostic capability in predicting overall survival (OS) and out-of-field progression (OFP). Three spatially distinct subregions were identified within each tumor that were highly robust to uncertainty in PET/CT co-registration. Among these, the volume of the most metabolically active and metabolically heterogeneous solid component of the tumor was predictive of OS and OFP on the entire cohort, with a concordance index or CI of 0.66-0.67. When restricting the analysis to patients with stage III disease (n=32), the same subregion achieved an even higher CI of 0.75 (hazard ratio 3.93, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OS, and a CI of 0.76 (hazard ratio 4.84, log-rank P=.002) for predicting OFP. In comparison, conventional imaging markers, including tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and metabolic tumor volume using threshold of 50% standardized uptake value maximum, were not predictive of OS or OFP, with CI mostly below 0.60 (log-rank P>.05). We propose a robust intratumor partitioning method to identify clinically relevant, high-risk

Integration of data mining classification techniques and ensemble learning to identify risk factors and diagnose ovarian cancer recurrence.

PubMed

Tseng, Chih-Jen; Lu, Chi-Jie; Chang, Chi-Chang; Chen, Gin-Den; Cheewakriangkrai, Chalong

2017-05-01

Ovarian cancer is the second leading cause of deaths among gynecologic cancers in the world. Approximately 90% of women with ovarian cancer reported having symptoms long before a diagnosis was made. Literature shows that recurrence should be predicted with regard to their personal risk factors and the clinical symptoms of this devastating cancer. In this study, ensemble learning and five data mining approaches, including support vector machine (SVM), C5.0, extreme learning machine (ELM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and random forest (RF), were integrated to rank the importance of risk factors and diagnose the recurrence of ovarian cancer. The medical records and pathologic status were extracted from the Chung Shan Medical University Hospital Tumor Registry. Experimental results illustrated that the integrated C5.0 model is a superior approach in predicting the recurrence of ovarian cancer. Moreover, the classification accuracies of C5.0, ELM, MARS, RF, and SVM indeed increased after using the selected important risk factors as predictors. Our findings suggest that The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO), Pathologic M, Age, and Pathologic T were the four most critical risk factors for ovarian cancer recurrence. In summary, the above information can support the important influence of personality and clinical symptom representations on all phases of guide interventions, with the complexities of multiple symptoms associated with ovarian cancer in all phases of the recurrent trajectory. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of Neuroanatomical Pattern Classification to Identify Subjects in At-Risk Mental States of Psychosis and Predict Disease Transition

PubMed Central

Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Meisenzahl, Eva M.; Davatzikos, Christos; Bottlender, Ronald; Frodl, Thomas; Scheuerecker, Johanna; Schmitt, Gisela; Zetzsche, Thomas; Decker, Petra; Reiser, Maximilian; Möller, Hans-Jürgen; Gaser, Christian

2014-01-01

may be reliably identified on an individual basis by assessing patterns of whole-brain neuroanatomical abnormalities. These patterns may serve as valuable biomarkers for the clinician to guide early detection in the prodromal phase of psychosis. PMID:19581561

Identifying Risk Factors Associated with Inappropriate Use of Acid Suppressive Therapy at a Community Hospital

PubMed Central

Bodukam, Vijay; Saigal, Kirit; Bahl, Jaya; Wang, Yvette; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lu, Yinghui; Davis, Michael

2016-01-01

Purpose. By examining the prescribing patterns and inappropriate use of acid suppressive therapy (AST) during hospitalization and at discharge we sought to identify the risk factors associated with such practices. Methods. In this retrospective observational study, inpatient records were reviewed from January 2011 to December 2013. Treatment with AST was considered appropriate if the patient had a known specific indication or met criteria for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Results. In 2011, out of 58 patients who were on AST on admission, 32 were newly started on it and 23 (72%) were inappropriate cases. In 2012, out of 97 patients on AST, 61 were newly started on it and 51 (84%) were inappropriate cases. In 2013, 99 patients were on AST, of which 48 were newly started on it and 36 (75%) were inappropriate cases. 19% of the patients inappropriately started on AST were discharged on it in three years. Younger age, female sex, and 1 or more handoffs between services were significantly associated with increased risk of inappropriate AST. Conclusion. Our findings reflect inappropriate prescription of AST which leads to increase in costs of care and unnecessarily puts the patient at risk for potential adverse events. The results of this study emphasize the importance of examining the patient's need for AST at each level of care especially when the identified risk factors are present. PMID:27818680

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study.

PubMed

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Prospective cohort study. Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered.

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study

PubMed Central

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

Objectives To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. Participants 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Methods Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. Results The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. Conclusions To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered. PMID:25232563

Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

PubMed Central

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

2015-01-01

Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

PubMed

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

2015-10-01

Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 11 risk variants associated with the asthma with hay fever phenotype

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Manuel A. R.; Matheson, Melanie C.; Tang, Clara S.; Granell, Raquel; Ang, Wei; Hui, Jennie; Kiefer, Amy K.; Duffy, David L.; Baltic, Svetlana; Danoy, Patrick; Bui, Minh; Price, Loren; Sly, Peter D.; Eriksson, Nicholas; Madden, Pamela A.; Abramson, Michael J.; Holt, Patrick G.; Heath, Andrew C.; Hunter, Michael; Musk, Bill; Robertson, Colin F.; Le Souëf, Peter; Montgomery, Grant W.; Henderson, A. John; Tung, Joyce Y.; Dharmage, Shyamali C.; Brown, Matthew A.; James, Alan; Thompson, Philip J.; Pennell, Craig; Martin, Nicholas G.; Evans, David M.; Hinds, David A.; Hopper, John L.

2014-01-01

Background To date, no genome-wide association study (GWAS) has considered the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever. Previous analyses of family data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study provide evidence that this phenotype has a stronger genetic cause than asthma without hay fever. Objective We sought to perform a GWAS of asthma with hay fever to identify variants associated with having both diseases. Methods We performed a meta-analysis of GWASs comparing persons with both physician-diagnosed asthma and hay fever (n = 6,685) with persons with neither disease (n = 14,091). Results At genome-wide significance, we identified 11 independent variants associated with the risk of having asthma with hay fever, including 2 associations reaching this level of significance with allergic disease for the first time: ZBTB10 (rs7009110; odds ratio [OR], 1.14; P = 4 × 10−9) and CLEC16A (rs62026376; OR, 1.17; P = 1 × 10−8). The rs62026376:C allele associated with increased asthma with hay fever risk has been found to be associated also with decreased expression of the nearby DEXI gene in monocytes. The 11 variants were associated with the risk of asthma and hay fever separately, but the estimated associations with the individual phenotypes were weaker than with the combined asthma with hay fever phenotype. A variant near LRRC32 was a stronger risk factor for hay fever than for asthma, whereas the reverse was observed for variants in/near GSDMA and TSLP. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence for association with asthma with hay fever risk included rs41295115 near IL2RA (OR, 1.28; P = 5 × 10−7) and rs76043829 in TNS1 (OR, 1.23; P = 2 × 10−6). Conclusion By focusing on the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever, variants associated with the risk of allergic disease can be identified with greater efficiency. PMID:24388013

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 11 risk variants associated with the asthma with hay fever phenotype.

PubMed

Ferreira, Manuel A R; Matheson, Melanie C; Tang, Clara S; Granell, Raquel; Ang, Wei; Hui, Jennie; Kiefer, Amy K; Duffy, David L; Baltic, Svetlana; Danoy, Patrick; Bui, Minh; Price, Loren; Sly, Peter D; Eriksson, Nicholas; Madden, Pamela A; Abramson, Michael J; Holt, Patrick G; Heath, Andrew C; Hunter, Michael; Musk, Bill; Robertson, Colin F; Le Souëf, Peter; Montgomery, Grant W; Henderson, A John; Tung, Joyce Y; Dharmage, Shyamali C; Brown, Matthew A; James, Alan; Thompson, Philip J; Pennell, Craig; Martin, Nicholas G; Evans, David M; Hinds, David A; Hopper, John L

2014-06-01

To date, no genome-wide association study (GWAS) has considered the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever. Previous analyses of family data from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study provide evidence that this phenotype has a stronger genetic cause than asthma without hay fever. We sought to perform a GWAS of asthma with hay fever to identify variants associated with having both diseases. We performed a meta-analysis of GWASs comparing persons with both physician-diagnosed asthma and hay fever (n = 6,685) with persons with neither disease (n = 14,091). At genome-wide significance, we identified 11 independent variants associated with the risk of having asthma with hay fever, including 2 associations reaching this level of significance with allergic disease for the first time: ZBTB10 (rs7009110; odds ratio [OR], 1.14; P = 4 × 10(-9)) and CLEC16A (rs62026376; OR, 1.17; P = 1 × 10(-8)). The rs62026376:C allele associated with increased asthma with hay fever risk has been found to be associated also with decreased expression of the nearby DEXI gene in monocytes. The 11 variants were associated with the risk of asthma and hay fever separately, but the estimated associations with the individual phenotypes were weaker than with the combined asthma with hay fever phenotype. A variant near LRRC32 was a stronger risk factor for hay fever than for asthma, whereas the reverse was observed for variants in/near GSDMA and TSLP. Single nucleotide polymorphisms with suggestive evidence for association with asthma with hay fever risk included rs41295115 near IL2RA (OR, 1.28; P = 5 × 10(-7)) and rs76043829 in TNS1 (OR, 1.23; P = 2 × 10(-6)). By focusing on the combined phenotype of asthma with hay fever, variants associated with the risk of allergic disease can be identified with greater efficiency. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Challenges and lessons learned from implementing a risk-based approach to school advice and closure during the containment phase of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the West Midlands, England.

PubMed

Awofisayo, A; Ibbotson, S; Smith, G E; Janmohamed, K; Mohamed, H; Olowokure, B

2013-07-01

School closure as a social distancing measure was used in some countries during the initial phases of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to describe the use of a risk-based approach to public health interventions for schools during the 'containment phase' of the pandemic and to describe lessons learnt. The development of a framework for risk assessment and decision-making to determine school closures in the West Midlands, England, during the 'containment phase' of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic is described. Using the framework developed during the 'containment phase', assessments were conducted for 344 educational institutions who reported confirmed cases or 'particularly high absenteeism'. Of these, 209 (60%) had confirmed cases and 65 were closed, mainly for public health or operational reasons. Schools were closed on an individual basis, during the most intense period of the pandemic and for an average period of six days (maximum 11 days). The risk-based approach evolved as experience and knowledge of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic virus increased, however some decisions were difficult to communicate to parents, schools and stakeholders particularly when the number of schools affected escalated and the pandemic response phases changed. The management of school closures is an 'uncertain art'. Numerous challenges and lessons were identified in attempting, during the containment phase of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, to ensure consistency and transparency in an increasingly complex process. The overall approach described could be further developed to improve decision-making for infectious diseases in schools. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A genome-wide association study identifies colorectal cancer susceptibility loci on chromosomes 10p14 and 8q23.3.

PubMed

Tomlinson, Ian P M; Webb, Emily; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Broderick, Peter; Howarth, Kimberley; Pittman, Alan M; Spain, Sarah; Lubbe, Steven; Walther, Axel; Sullivan, Kate; Jaeger, Emma; Fielding, Sarah; Rowan, Andrew; Vijayakrishnan, Jayaram; Domingo, Enric; Chandler, Ian; Kemp, Zoe; Qureshi, Mobshra; Farrington, Susan M; Tenesa, Albert; Prendergast, James G D; Barnetson, Rebecca A; Penegar, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Wood, Wendy; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Thomas, Huw; Peto, Julian; Bishop, D Timothy; Gray, Richard; Maher, Eamonn R; Lucassen, Anneke; Kerr, David; Evans, D Gareth R; Schafmayer, Clemens; Buch, Stephan; Völzke, Henry; Hampe, Jochen; Schreiber, Stefan; John, Ulrich; Koessler, Thibaud; Pharoah, Paul; van Wezel, Tom; Morreau, Hans; Wijnen, Juul T; Hopper, John L; Southey, Melissa C; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Carracedo, Angel; Castells, Antoni; Försti, Asta; Hemminki, Kari; Vodicka, Pavel; Naccarati, Alessio; Lipton, Lara; Ho, Judy W C; Cheng, K K; Sham, Pak C; Luk, J; Agúndez, Jose A G; Ladero, Jose M; de la Hoya, Miguel; Caldés, Trinidad; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Cazier, Jean-Baptiste; Campbell, Harry; Dunlop, Malcolm G; Houlston, Richard S

2008-05-01

To identify colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility alleles, we conducted a genome-wide association study. In phase 1, we genotyped 550,163 tagSNPs in 940 familial colorectal tumor cases (627 CRC, 313 high-risk adenoma) and 965 controls. In phase 2, we genotyped 42,708 selected SNPs in 2,873 CRC cases and 2,871 controls. In phase 3, we evaluated 11 SNPs showing association at P < 10(-4) in a joint analysis of phases 1 and 2 in 4,287 CRC cases and 3,743 controls. Two SNPs were taken forward to phase 4 genotyping (10,731 CRC cases and 10,961 controls from eight centers). In addition to the previously reported 8q24, 15q13 and 18q21 CRC risk loci, we identified two previously unreported associations: rs10795668, located at 10p14 (P = 2.5 x 10(-13) overall; P = 6.9 x 10(-12) replication), and rs16892766, at 8q23.3 (P = 3.3 x 10(-18) overall; P = 9.6 x 10(-17) replication), which tags a plausible causative gene, EIF3H. These data provide further evidence for the 'common-disease common-variant' model of CRC predisposition.

Safety performance of traffic phases and phase transitions in three phase traffic theory.

PubMed

Xu, Chengcheng; Liu, Pan; Wang, Wei; Li, Zhibin

2015-12-01

Crash risk prediction models were developed to link safety to various phases and phase transitions defined by the three phase traffic theory. Results of the Bayesian conditional logit analysis showed that different traffic states differed distinctly with respect to safety performance. The random-parameter logit approach was utilized to account for the heterogeneity caused by unobserved factors. The Bayesian inference approach based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was used for the estimation of the random-parameter logit model. The proposed approach increased the prediction performance of the crash risk models as compared with the conventional logit model. The three phase traffic theory can help us better understand the mechanism of crash occurrences in various traffic states. The contributing factors to crash likelihood can be well explained by the mechanism of phase transitions. We further discovered that the free flow state can be divided into two sub-phases on the basis of safety performance, including a true free flow state in which the interactions between vehicles are minor, and a platooned traffic state in which bunched vehicles travel in successions. The results of this study suggest that a safety perspective can be added to the three phase traffic theory. The results also suggest that the heterogeneity between different traffic states should be considered when estimating the risks of crash occurrences on freeways. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genome-Wide Association Study in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers Identifies Novel Loci Associated with Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Wang, Xianshu; McGuffog, Lesley; Lee, Andrew; Olswold, Curtis; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; Soucy, Penny; Fredericksen, Zachary; Barrowdale, Daniel; Dennis, Joe; Gaudet, Mia M.; Dicks, Ed; Kosel, Matthew; Healey, Sue; Sinilnikova, Olga M.; Lee, Adam; Bacot, François; Vincent, Daniel; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Peock, Susan; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Jakubowska, Anna; Investigators, kConFab; Radice, Paolo; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Domchek, Susan M.; Piedmonte, Marion; Singer, Christian F.; Friedman, Eitan; Thomassen, Mads; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Szabo, Csilla I.; Blanco, Ignacio; Greene, Mark H.; Karlan, Beth Y.; Garber, Judy; Phelan, Catherine M.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Montagna, Marco; Olah, Edith; Andrulis, Irene L.; Godwin, Andrew K.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Goldgar, David E.; Caldes, Trinidad; Nevanlinna, Heli; Osorio, Ana; Terry, Mary Beth; Daly, Mary B.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Hamann, Ute; Ramus, Susan J.; Ewart Toland, Amanda; Caligo, Maria A.; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Tung, Nadine; Claes, Kathleen; Beattie, Mary S.; Southey, Melissa C.; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Tischkowitz, Marc; Janavicius, Ramunas; John, Esther M.; Kwong, Ava; Diez, Orland; Balmaña, Judith; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Arun, Banu K.; Rennert, Gad; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Ganz, Patricia A.; Campbell, Ian; van der Hout, Annemarie H.; van Deurzen, Carolien H. M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; van Leeuwen, Flora E.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Gille, Johannes J. P.; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; Blok, Marinus J.; Ligtenberg, Marjolijn J. L.; Rookus, Matti A.; Devilee, Peter; Verhoef, Senno; van Os, Theo A. M.; Wijnen, Juul T.; Frost, Debra; Ellis, Steve; Fineberg, Elena; Platte, Radka; Evans, D. Gareth; Izatt, Louise; Eeles, Rosalind A.; Adlard, Julian; Eccles, Diana M.; Cook, Jackie; Brewer, Carole; Douglas, Fiona; Hodgson, Shirley; Morrison, Patrick J.; Side, Lucy E.; Donaldson, Alan; Houghton, Catherine; Rogers, Mark T.; Dorkins, Huw; Eason, Jacqueline; Gregory, Helen; McCann, Emma; Murray, Alex; Calender, Alain; Hardouin, Agnès; Berthet, Pascaline; Delnatte, Capucine; Nogues, Catherine; Lasset, Christine; Houdayer, Claude; Leroux, Dominique; Rouleau, Etienne; Prieur, Fabienne; Damiola, Francesca; Sobol, Hagay; Coupier, Isabelle; Venat-Bouvet, Laurence; Castera, Laurent; Gauthier-Villars, Marion; Léoné, Mélanie; Pujol, Pascal; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Bignon, Yves-Jean; Złowocka-Perłowska, Elżbieta; Gronwald, Jacek; Lubinski, Jan; Durda, Katarzyna; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Huzarski, Tomasz; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Viel, Alessandra; Peissel, Bernard; Bonanni, Bernardo; Melloni, Giulia; Ottini, Laura; Papi, Laura; Varesco, Liliana; Tibiletti, Maria Grazia; Peterlongo, Paolo; Volorio, Sara; Manoukian, Siranoush; Pensotti, Valeria; Arnold, Norbert; Engel, Christoph; Deissler, Helmut; Gadzicki, Dorothea; Gehrig, Andrea; Kast, Karin; Rhiem, Kerstin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Ditsch, Nina; Plendl, Hansjoerg; Preisler-Adams, Sabine; Engert, Stefanie; Sutter, Christian; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Weber, Bernhard H. F.; Arver, Brita; Stenmark-Askmalm, Marie; Loman, Niklas; Rosenquist, Richard; Einbeigi, Zakaria; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Rebbeck, Timothy R.; Blank, Stephanie V.; Cohn, David E.; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Small, Laurie; Friedlander, Michael; Bae-Jump, Victoria L.; Fink-Retter, Anneliese; Rappaport, Christine; Gschwantler-Kaulich, Daphne; Pfeiler, Georg; Tea, Muy-Kheng; Lindor, Noralane M.; Kaufman, Bella; Shimon Paluch, Shani; Laitman, Yael; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Moeller, Sanne Traasdahl; Kruse, Torben A.; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Vijai, Joseph; Sarrel, Kara; Robson, Mark; Kauff, Noah; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Ozcelik, Hilmi; Ejlertsen, Bent; Nielsen, Finn C.; Jønson, Lars; Andersen, Mette K.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Steele, Linda; Foretova, Lenka; Teulé, Alex; Lazaro, Conxi; Brunet, Joan; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Mai, Phuong L.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Walsh, Christine; Lester, Jenny; Orsulic, Sandra; Narod, Steven A.; Herzog, Josef; Sand, Sharon R.; Tognazzo, Silvia; Agata, Simona; Vaszko, Tibor; Weaver, Joellen; Stavropoulou, Alexandra V.; Buys, Saundra S.; Romero, Atocha; de la Hoya, Miguel; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Muranen, Taru A.; Duran, Mercedes; Chung, Wendy K.; Lasa, Adriana; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; Miron, Alexander; Benitez, Javier; Senter, Leigha; Huo, Dezheng; Chan, Salina B.; Sokolenko, Anna P.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Tihomirova, Laima; Friebel, Tara M.; Agnarsson, Bjarni A.; Lu, Karen H.; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; James, Paul A.; Hall, Per; Dunning, Alison M.; Tessier, Daniel; Cunningham, Julie; Slager, Susan L.; Wang, Chen; Hart, Steven; Stevens, Kristen; Simard, Jacques; Pastinen, Tomi; Pankratz, Vernon S.; Offit, Kenneth; Antoniou, Antonis C.

2013-01-01

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7×10−8, HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09–1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4×10−8, HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17–1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4×10−8, HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17–1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific association. The 17q21.31 locus was also associated with ovarian cancer risk in 8,211 BRCA2 carriers (P = 2×10−4). These loci may lead to an improved understanding of the etiology of breast and ovarian tumors in BRCA1 carriers. Based on the joint distribution of the known BRCA1 breast cancer risk-modifying loci, we estimated that the breast cancer lifetime risks for the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk are 28%–50% compared to 81%–100% for the 5% at highest risk. Similarly, based on the known ovarian cancer risk-modifying loci, the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk have an estimated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer of 28% or lower, whereas the 5% at highest risk will have a risk of 63% or higher. Such differences in risk may have important implications for risk prediction and clinical management for BRCA1 carriers. PMID:23544013

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed.

PubMed

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P T; Caldwell, Deborah M; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews ("reviews of reviews"), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed

PubMed Central

Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P.T.; Caldwell, Deborah M.; Reeves, Barnaby C.; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

2016-01-01

Objective To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). Study Design and Setting We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. Results ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews (“reviews of reviews”), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. Conclusions ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. PMID:26092286

Novel target for high-risk neuroblastoma identified in pre-clinical research | Center for Cancer Research

Cancer.gov

Pre-clinical research by investigators at the Center for Cancer Research and their colleagues have identified a number of novel epigenetic targets for high-risk neuroblastoma and validated a promising new targeted inhibitor in pre-clinical models.  Read more...

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

The ability of the 2013 ACC/AHA cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores

PubMed Central

Kawai, Vivian K.; Chung, Cecilia P.; Solus, Joseph F.; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C. Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) that is underestimated by the Framingham risk score (FRS). We hypothesized that the 2013 ACC/AHA 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds risk score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Methods Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA score we identified 34 patients with high CAC (≥ 300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS and the ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. Results All three risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P values <0.05). The percentage of patients with high CAC correctly assigned to the elevated risk category was similar among the three scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA 41%) (P=0.233). The c-statistics for the FRS, RRS and ACC/AHA risk scores predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. Conclusions The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC into a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. PMID:25371313

Using Latent Class Analysis to Identify Academic and Behavioral Risk Status in Elementary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Kathleen R.; Lembke, Erica S.; Reinke, Wendy M.

2016-01-01

Identifying classes of children on the basis of academic and behavior risk may have important implications for the allocation of intervention resources within Response to Intervention (RTI) and Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS) models. Latent class analysis (LCA) was conducted with a sample of 517 third grade students. Fall screening scores in…

Impact of Patient Reminders on Papanicolaou Test Completion for High-Risk Patients Identified by a Clinical Decision Support System.

PubMed

MacLaughlin, Kathy L; Kessler, Maya E; Komandur Elayavilli, Ravikumar; Hickey, Branden C; Scheitel, Marianne R; Wagholikar, Kavishwar B; Liu, Hongfang; Kremers, Walter K; Chaudhry, Rajeev

2018-05-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) for cervical cancer screening identifies patients due for routine cervical cancer screening. Yet, high-risk patients who require more frequent screening or earlier follow-up to address past abnormal results are not identified. We aimed to assess the effect of a complex CDSS, incorporating national guidelines for high-risk patient screening and abnormal result management, its implementation to identify patients overdue for testing, and the outcome of sending a targeted recommendation for follow-up. At three primary care clinics affiliated with an academic medical center, a reminder recommending an appointment for Papanicolaou (Pap) testing or Pap and human papillomavirus cotesting was sent to high-risk women aged 18 through 65 years (intervention group) identified by CDSS as overdue for testing. Historical control patients, who did not receive a reminder, were identified by CDSS 1 year before the date when reminders were sent to the intervention group. Test completion rates were compared between the intervention and control groups through a generalized estimating equation extension. Across the three sites, the average completion rate of recommended follow-up testing was significantly higher in the intervention group at 23.7% (61/257) than the completion rate at 3.3% (17/516) in the control group (p < 0.001). A CDSS with enhanced capabilities to identify high-risk women due for cervical cancer testing beyond routine screening intervals, with subsequent patient notification, has the potential to decrease cervical precancer and cancer by improving adherence to guideline-compliant follow-up and needed treatment.

Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Beecham, Ashley H; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Xifara, Dionysia K; Davis, Mary F; Kemppinen, Anu; Cotsapas, Chris; Shahi, Tejas S; Spencer, Chris; Booth, David; Goris, An; Oturai, Annette; Saarela, Janna; Fontaine, Bertrand; Hemmer, Bernhard; Martin, Claes; Zipp, Frauke; D’alfonso, Sandra; Martinelli-Boneschi, Filippo; Taylor, Bruce; Harbo, Hanne F; Kockum, Ingrid; Hillert, Jan; Olsson, Tomas; Ban, Maria; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Hintzen, Rogier; Barcellos, Lisa F; Agliardi, Cristina; Alfredsson, Lars; Alizadeh, Mehdi; Anderson, Carl; Andrews, Robert; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Baker, Amie; Band, Gavin; Baranzini, Sergio E; Barizzone, Nadia; Barrett, Jeffrey; Bellenguez, Céline; Bergamaschi, Laura; Bernardinelli, Luisa; Berthele, Achim; Biberacher, Viola; Binder, Thomas M C; Blackburn, Hannah; Bomfim, Izaura L; Brambilla, Paola; Broadley, Simon; Brochet, Bruno; Brundin, Lou; Buck, Dorothea; Butzkueven, Helmut; Caillier, Stacy J; Camu, William; Carpentier, Wassila; Cavalla, Paola; Celius, Elisabeth G; Coman, Irène; Comi, Giancarlo; Corrado, Lucia; Cosemans, Leentje; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Cree, Bruce A C; Cusi, Daniele; Damotte, Vincent; Defer, Gilles; Delgado, Silvia R; Deloukas, Panos; di Sapio, Alessia; Dilthey, Alexander T; Donnelly, Peter; Dubois, Bénédicte; Duddy, Martin; Edkins, Sarah; Elovaara, Irina; Esposito, Federica; Evangelou, Nikos; Fiddes, Barnaby; Field, Judith; Franke, Andre; Freeman, Colin; Frohlich, Irene Y; Galimberti, Daniela; Gieger, Christian; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Graetz, Christiane; Graham, Andrew; Grummel, Verena; Guaschino, Clara; Hadjixenofontos, Athena; Hakonarson, Hakon; Halfpenny, Christopher; Hall, Gillian; Hall, Per; Hamsten, Anders; Harley, James; Harrower, Timothy; Hawkins, Clive; Hellenthal, Garrett; Hillier, Charles; Hobart, Jeremy; Hoshi, Muni; Hunt, Sarah E; Jagodic, Maja; Jelčić, Ilijas; Jochim, Angela; Kendall, Brian; Kermode, Allan; Kilpatrick, Trevor; Koivisto, Keijo; Konidari, Ioanna; Korn, Thomas; Kronsbein, Helena; Langford, Cordelia; Larsson, Malin; Lathrop, Mark; Lebrun-Frenay, Christine; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Lee, Michelle H; Leone, Maurizio A; Leppä, Virpi; Liberatore, Giuseppe; Lie, Benedicte A; Lill, Christina M; Lindén, Magdalena; Link, Jenny; Luessi, Felix; Lycke, Jan; Macciardi, Fabio; Männistö, Satu; Manrique, Clara P; Martin, Roland; Martinelli, Vittorio; Mason, Deborah; Mazibrada, Gordon; McCabe, Cristin; Mero, Inger-Lise; Mescheriakova, Julia; Moutsianas, Loukas; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Nagels, Guy; Nicholas, Richard; Nilsson, Petra; Piehl, Fredrik; Pirinen, Matti; Price, Siân E; Quach, Hong; Reunanen, Mauri; Robberecht, Wim; Robertson, Neil P; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Rog, David; Salvetti, Marco; Schnetz-Boutaud, Nathalie C; Sellebjerg, Finn; Selter, Rebecca C; Schaefer, Catherine; Shaunak, Sandip; Shen, Ling; Shields, Simon; Siffrin, Volker; Slee, Mark; Sorensen, Per Soelberg; Sorosina, Melissa; Sospedra, Mireia; Spurkland, Anne; Strange, Amy; Sundqvist, Emilie; Thijs, Vincent; Thorpe, John; Ticca, Anna; Tienari, Pentti; van Duijn, Cornelia; Visser, Elizabeth M; Vucic, Steve; Westerlind, Helga; Wiley, James S; Wilkins, Alastair; Wilson, James F; Winkelmann, Juliane; Zajicek, John; Zindler, Eva; Haines, Jonathan L; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Ivinson, Adrian J; Stewart, Graeme; Hafler, David; Hauser, Stephen L; Compston, Alastair; McVean, Gil; De Jager, Philip; Sawcer, Stephen; McCauley, Jacob L

2013-01-01

Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analysed 14,498 multiple sclerosis subjects and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (p-value < 1.0 × 10-4). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 multiple sclerosis subjects and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (p-value < 5.0 × 10-8); three found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants in 103 discrete loci outside of the Major Histocompatibility Complex. With high resolution Bayesian fine-mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalogue of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine-mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals. PMID:24076602

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

1995-01-01

Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

The Baby TALK Model: An Innovative Approach to Identifying High-Risk Children and Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villalpando, Aimee Hilado; Leow, Christine; Hornstein, John

2012-01-01

This research report examines the Baby TALK model, an innovative early childhood intervention approach used to identify, recruit, and serve young children who are at-risk for developmental delays, mental health needs, and/or school failure, and their families. The report begins with a description of the model. This description is followed by an…

Can Predictive Modeling Identify Head and Neck Oncology Patients at Risk for Readmission?

PubMed

Manning, Amy M; Casper, Keith A; Peter, Kay St; Wilson, Keith M; Mark, Jonathan R; Collar, Ryan M

2018-05-01

Objective Unplanned readmission within 30 days is a contributor to health care costs in the United States. The use of predictive modeling during hospitalization to identify patients at risk for readmission offers a novel approach to quality improvement and cost reduction. Study Design Two-phase study including retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data followed by prospective longitudinal study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods Prospectively collected data for patients undergoing surgical treatment for head and neck cancer from January 2013 to January 2015 were used to build predictive models for readmission within 30 days of discharge using logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, and random forests. One model (logistic regression) was then placed prospectively into the discharge workflow from March 2016 to May 2016 to determine the model's ability to predict which patients would be readmitted within 30 days. Results In total, 174 admissions had descriptive data. Thirty-two were excluded due to incomplete data. Logistic regression, CART, and random forest predictive models were constructed using the remaining 142 admissions. When applied to 106 consecutive prospective head and neck oncology patients at the time of discharge, the logistic regression model predicted readmissions with a specificity of 94%, a sensitivity of 47%, a negative predictive value of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 62% (odds ratio, 14.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.02-55.45). Conclusion Prospectively collected head and neck cancer databases can be used to develop predictive models that can accurately predict which patients will be readmitted. This offers valuable support for quality improvement initiatives and readmission-related cost reduction in head and neck cancer care.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analyses in support of risk-informed natural gas vehicle maintenance facility codes and standards :

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ekoto, Isaac W.; Blaylock, Myra L.; LaFleur, Angela Christine

2014-03-01

Safety standards development for maintenance facilities of liquid and compressed gas fueled large-scale vehicles is required to ensure proper facility design and operation envelopes. Standard development organizations are utilizing risk-informed concepts to develop natural gas vehicle (NGV) codes and standards so that maintenance facilities meet acceptable risk levels. The present report summarizes Phase I work for existing NGV repair facility code requirements and highlights inconsistencies that need quantitative analysis into their effectiveness. A Hazardous and Operability study was performed to identify key scenarios of interest. Finally, scenario analyses were performed using detailed simulations and modeling to estimate the overpressure hazardsmore » from HAZOP defined scenarios. The results from Phase I will be used to identify significant risk contributors at NGV maintenance facilities, and are expected to form the basis for follow-on quantitative risk analysis work to address specific code requirements and identify effective accident prevention and mitigation strategies.« less

The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

A Framework for the Next Generation of Risk Science

PubMed Central

Krewski, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin E.; Paoli, Gregory M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Croteau, Maxine C.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Cote, Ila

2014-01-01

Objectives: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. Methods: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. Results: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. Conclusions: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice. Citation: Krewski D, Westphal M, Andersen ME, Paoli GM, Chiu WA, Al-Zoughool M, Croteau MC, Burgoon LD, Cote I. 2014. A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect 122:796–805; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307260 PMID:24727499

Online self-test identifies women at high familial breast cancer risk in population-based breast cancer screening without inducing anxiety or distress.

PubMed

van Erkelens, A; Sie, A S; Manders, P; Visser, A; Duijm, L E; Mann, R M; Ten Voorde, M; Kroeze, H; Prins, J B; Hoogerbrugge, N

2017-06-01

Identifying high familial breast cancer (FBC) risk improves detection of yet unknown BRCA1/2-mutation carriers, for whom BC risk is both highly likely and potentially preventable. We assessed whether a new online self-test could identify women at high FBC risk in population-based BC screening without inducing anxiety or distress. After their visit for screening mammography, women were invited by email to take an online self-test for identifying highly increased FBC risk-based on Dutch guidelines. Exclusion criteria were previously diagnosed as increased FBC risk or a personal history of BC. Anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory Dutch Version), distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale) and BC risk perception were assessed using questionnaires, which were completed immediately before and after taking the online self-test and 2 weeks later. Of the 562 women invited by email, 406 (72%) completed the online self-test while 304 also completed questionnaires (response rate 54%). After exclusion criteria, 287 (51%) were included for data analysis. Median age was 56 years (range 50-74). A high or moderate FBC risk was identified in 12 (4%) and three (1%) women, respectively. After completion of the online self-test, anxiety and BC risk perception were decreased while distress scores remained unchanged. Levels were below clinical relevance. Most women (85%) would recommend the self-test; few (3%) would not. The online self-test identified previously unknown women at high FBC risk (4%), who may carry a BRCA1/2-mutation, without inducing anxiety or distress. We therefore recommend offering this self-test to women who attend population-based screening mammography for the first time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A measurement model of perinatal stressors: identifying risk for postnatal emotional distress in mothers of high-risk infants.

PubMed

DeMier, R L; Hynan, M T; Hatfield, R F; Varner, M W; Harris, H B; Manniello, R L

2000-01-01

A measurement model of perinatal stressors was first evaluated for reliability and then used to identify risk factors for postnatal emotional distress in high-risk mothers. In Study 1, six measures (gestational age of the baby, birthweight, length of the baby's hospitalization, a postnatal complications rating for the infant, and Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min) were obtained from chart reviews of preterm births at two different hospitals. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that the six measures could be accounted for by three factors: (a) Infant Maturity, (b) Apgar Ratings, and (c) Complications. In Study 2, a modified measurement model indicated that Infant Maturity and Complications were significant predictors of postnatal emotional distress in an additional sample of mothers. This measurement model may also be useful in predicting (a) other measures of psychological distress in parents, and (b) measures of cognitive and motor development in infants.

Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

PubMed Central

DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

2008-01-01

Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

A simple method to identify areas of environmental risk due to manure application.

PubMed

Flores, Héctor; Arumí, José Luis; Rivera, Diego; Lagos, L Octavio

2012-06-01

The management of swine manure is becoming an important environmental issue in Chile. One option for the final disposal of manure is to use it as a biofertilizer, but this practice could impact the surrounding environment. To assess the potential environmental impacts of the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer, we propose a method to identify zones of environmental risk through indices. The method considers two processes: nutrient runoff and solute leaching, and uses available information about soils, crops and management practices (irrigation, fertilization, and rotation). We applied the method to qualitatively assess the environmental risk associated with the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer in an 8,000-pig farm located in Central Chile. Results showed that the farm has a moderate environmental risk, but some specific locations have high environmental risks, especially those associated with impacts on areas surrounding water resources. This information could assist the definition of better farm-level management practices, as well as the preservation of riparian vegetation acting as buffer strips. The main advantage of our approach is that it combines qualitative and quantitative information, including particular situations or field features based on expert knowledge. The method is flexible, simple, and can be easily extended or adapted to other processes.

Acute kidney injury subphenotypes based on creatinine trajectory identifies patients at increased risk of death.

PubMed

Bhatraju, Pavan K; Mukherjee, Paramita; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; O'Keefe, Grant E; Frank, Angela J; Christie, Jason D; Meyer, Nuala J; Liu, Kathleen D; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Wurfel, Mark M

2016-11-17

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AKI is highly heterogeneous, with variable links to poor outcomes. Current approaches to classify AKI severity and identify patients at highest risk for poor outcomes focus on the maximum change in serum creatinine (SCr) values. However, these scores are hampered by the need for a reliable baseline SCr value and the absence of a component differentiating transient from persistent rises in SCr. We hypothesized that identification of resolving or nonresolving AKI subphenotypes based on the early trajectory of SCr values in the ICU would better differentiate patients at risk of hospital mortality. We performed a secondary analysis of two prospective studies of ICU patients admitted to a trauma ICU (group 1; n = 1914) or general medical-surgical ICUs (group 2; n = 1867). In group 1, we tested definitions for resolving and nonresolving AKI subphenotypes and selected the definitions resulting in subphenotypes with the greatest separation in risk of death relative to non-AKI controls. We applied this definition to group 2 and tested whether the subphenotypes were independently associated with hospital mortality after adjustment for AKI severity. AKI occurred in 46% and 69% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively. In group 1, a resolving AKI subphenotype (defined as a decrease in SCr of 0.3 mg/dl or 25% from maximum in the first 72 h of study enrollment) was associated with a low risk of death. A nonresolving AKI subphenotype (defined as all AKI cases not meeting the "resolving" definition) was associated with a high risk of death. In group 2, the resolving AKI subphenotype was not associated with increased mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.17), whereas the nonresolving AKI subphenotype was associated with higher mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15-2.44) even after adjustment for AKI severity stage. The trajectory of SCr levels identifies AKI subphenotypes with different

Identifying Patients at Higher Risk of Prolonged Air Leak After Lung Resection.

PubMed

Gilbert, Sebastien; Maghera, Sonam; Seely, Andrew J; Maziak, Donna E; Shamji, Farid M; Sundaresan, Sudhir R; Villeneuve, Patrick J

2016-11-01

Predictive models of prolonged air leak have relied on information not always available preoperatively (eg, extent of resection, pleural adhesions). Our objective was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of prolonged air leak using preoperative factors exclusively. From 2012 to 2014, data on consecutive patients undergoing pulmonary resection were collected prospectively. Prolonged air leak was defined as lasting longer than 7 days and requiring hospitalization. Factors associated with the primary outcome (p < 0.2) were included in a multivariate model. Regression coefficients were used to develop a weighted risk score for prolonged air leak. Of 225 patients, 8% (18/225) experienced a prolonged air leak. Male gender (p = 0.08), smoking history (p = 0.03), body mass index (BMI) 25 or below (p < 0.01), Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnea score above 1 (p = 0.06), and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide below 80% (Dlco) (p = 0.01) were selected for inclusion in the final model. Weighted scores were male gender (1 point), BMI 25 or below (0.5 point), smoker (2 points), Dlco% below 80% (2 points), and MRC dyspnea score above 1 (1 point). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7 to 0.9]. An air leak score above 4 points offered the best combination of sensitivity (83% [95% CI = 58 to 96]) and specificity (65% [95% CI = 58 to 71]). A subgroup of lung resection patients at higher risk for a prolonged air leak can be effectively identified with the use of widely available, preoperative factors. The proposed scoring system is simple, is clinically relevant to the informed consent, and allows preoperative patient selection for interventions to reduce the risk of prolonged air leak. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predation risk modifies behaviour by shaping the response of identified brain neurons.

PubMed

Magani, Fiorella; Luppi, Tomas; Nuñez, Jesus; Tomsic, Daniel

2016-04-15

Interpopulation comparisons in species that show behavioural variations associated with particular ecological disparities offer good opportunities for assessing how environmental factors may foster specific functional adaptations in the brain. Yet, studies on the neural substrate that can account for interpopulation behavioural adaptations are scarce. Predation is one of the strongest driving forces for behavioural evolvability and, consequently, for shaping structural and functional brain adaptations. We analysed the escape response of crabs ITALIC! Neohelice granulatafrom two isolated populations exposed to different risks of avian predation. Individuals from the high-risk area proved to be more reactive to visual danger stimuli (VDS) than those from an area where predators are rare. Control experiments indicate that the response difference was specific for impending visual threats. Subsequently, we analysed the response to VDS of a group of giant brain neurons that are thought to play a main role in the visually guided escape response of the crab. Neurons from animals of the population with the stronger escape response were more responsive to VDS than neurons from animals of the less reactive population. Our results suggest a robust linkage between the pressure imposed by the predation risk, the response of identified neurons and the behavioural outcome. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Identifying desertification risk areas using fuzzy membership and geospatial technique - A case study, Kota District, Rajasthan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasgupta, Arunima; Sastry, K. L. N.; Dhinwa, P. S.; Rathore, V. S.; Nathawat, M. S.

2013-08-01

Desertification risk assessment is important in order to take proper measures for its prevention. Present research intends to identify the areas under risk of desertification along with their severity in terms of degradation in natural parameters. An integrated model with fuzzy membership analysis, fuzzy rule-based inference system and geospatial techniques was adopted, including five specific natural parameters namely slope, soil pH, soil depth, soil texture and NDVI. Individual parameters were classified according to their deviation from mean. Membership of each individual values to be in a certain class was derived using the normal probability density function of that class. Thus if a single class of a single parameter is with mean μ and standard deviation σ, the values falling beyond μ + 2 σ and μ - 2 σ are not representing that class, but a transitional zone between two subsequent classes. These are the most important areas in terms of degradation, as they have the lowest probability to be in a certain class, hence highest probability to be extended or narrowed down in next or previous class respectively. Eventually, these are the values which can be easily altered, under extrogenic influences, hence are identified as risk areas. The overall desertification risk is derived by incorporating the different risk severity of each parameter using fuzzy rule-based interference system in GIS environment. Multicriteria based geo-statistics are applied to locate the areas under different severity of desertification risk. The study revealed that in Kota, various anthropogenic pressures are accelerating land deterioration, coupled with natural erosive forces. Four major sources of desertification in Kota are, namely Gully and Ravine erosion, inappropriate mining practices, growing urbanization and random deforestation.

A scan statistic for identifying optimal risk windows in vaccine safety studies using self-controlled case series design.

PubMed

Xu, Stanley; Hambidge, Simon J; McClure, David L; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M

2013-08-30

In the examination of the association between vaccines and rare adverse events after vaccination in postlicensure observational studies, it is challenging to define appropriate risk windows because prelicensure RCTs provide little insight on the timing of specific adverse events. Past vaccine safety studies have often used prespecified risk windows based on prior publications, biological understanding of the vaccine, and expert opinion. Recently, a data-driven approach was developed to identify appropriate risk windows for vaccine safety studies that use the self-controlled case series design. This approach employs both the maximum incidence rate ratio and the linear relation between the estimated incidence rate ratio and the inverse of average person time at risk, given a specified risk window. In this paper, we present a scan statistic that can identify appropriate risk windows in vaccine safety studies using the self-controlled case series design while taking into account the dependence of time intervals within an individual and while adjusting for time-varying covariates such as age and seasonality. This approach uses the maximum likelihood ratio test based on fixed-effects models, which has been used for analyzing data from self-controlled case series design in addition to conditional Poisson models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

PubMed

Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

2017-03-23

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.

[FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

PubMed

Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

2015-01-06

To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Performance of Risk-Based and Birth-Cohort Strategies for Identifying Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among People Entering Prison, Wisconsin, 2014.

PubMed

Stockman, Lauren J; Greer, James; Holzmacher, Ryan; Dittmann, Beth; Hoftiezer, Scott A; Alsum, Lori E; Prieve, Audrey; Westergaard, Ryan P; Guilfoyle, Sheila M; Vergeront, James M

2016-01-01

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among young adults is rising in Wisconsin. We examined the prevalence of HCV infection among male and female inmates entering two Wisconsin prisons and evaluated existing and alternate risk-based strategies for identifying HCV infection at intake. We added HCV testing to the intake procedures for all 1,239 adults prison entrants at the Wisconsin Department of Corrections (WDOC) from November 3, 2014, to January 31, 2015. We identified risk factors associated with HCV infection during the routine intake examination and calculated the sensitivity and specificity of risk-based testing strategies for identifying HCV infection. The prevalence of HCV antibody among prison entrants was 12.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7, 14.4) overall and was almost two times higher at the women's facility (21.3%, 95% CI 15.4, 27.2) than at the men's facility (11.0%, 95% CI 0.0, 12.9) (p<0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of the WDOC risk-based criteria were 88% (95% CI 83, 93) and 80% (95% CI 78, 83), respectively. Adding a new criterion, the 1945-1965 birth cohort, to the risk-based criteria improved the sensitivity to 92% (95% CI 88, 96) and lowered the specificity to 71% (95% CI 68, 74). Compared with entrants without these risk factors, HCV antibody prevalence was significantly higher among prison entrants who had the following risk factors: injection drug use (prevalence ratio [PR] = 9.9, 95% CI 7.4, 13.2), liver disease (PR=9.7, 95% CI 7.8, 12.0), and elevated levels of alanine transaminase (PR=3.6, 95% CI 2.7, 4.9). The WDOC risk criteria for HCV testing identified 88% of HCV infections among prison entrants. Including the 1945-1965 birth cohort as a criterion along with the other WDOC risk criteria increased the sensitivity of targeted testing to 92%. These findings may be informative to jurisdictions where universal HCV testing is not feasible because of resource limitations.

High Rates of Sex with Men among High-Risk, Heterosexually-Identified Men in Low-Income, Coastal Peru

PubMed Central

Lescano, Andres G.; Leontsini, Elli; Fernandez, Percy; Klausner, Jeffrey D.; Coates, Thomas J.; Cáceres, Carlos F.

2011-01-01

In this paper we describe sex with men, including the frequency of sex and unprotected sex, among high-risk, heterosexually-identified men in urban, low-income, coastal Peru. During 2001–2002, a random community-based sample of these men was administered an epidemiologic survey collecting sexual risk behavior data. Among the 924 high-risk heterosexually-identified men, 131 (14.2%) reported at least one male partner in the past 6 months. Of these, 113 (86.3%) reported male and female partners and among those with partners of both sexes, 84.2% and 57.0% of sex acts with female and male partners, respectively, were unprotected, (RR 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31–1.68). We observed a high rate of recent bisexual behavior compared to past studies showing frequent, unprotected sex with male and female partners. This population has substantial potential to act as a bridge population between and their male and female partners and should be addressed by prevention programs. PMID:17377837

Modeling Retention at a Large Public University: Can At-Risk Students Be Identified Early Enough to Treat?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singell, Larry D.; Waddell, Glen R.

2010-01-01

We examine the extent to which readily available data at a large public university can be used to a priori identify at-risk students who may benefit from targeted retention efforts. Although it is possible to identify such students, there remains an inevitable tradeoff in any resource allocation between not treating the students who are likely to…

Developing and Validation of Identifying People in Risk of Addiction Questionnaire (I.P.R.A)

PubMed Central

Anisi, Jafar; Bahadori, Mohammad Hossein; Jahanbakhsh, Marziyeh

2013-01-01

Background Drug addiction is considered as a problem of the new century which has destructive consequences for both family and society. This ominous phenomenon resulted from many factors. Present research aimed at recognition of inter-personal factors related to addiction and were conducted through a questionnaire to identify the youths at risk of addiction. Objectives Present research aimed at recognition of inter-personal factors related to addiction and were conducted through a questionnaire to identify the youths at risk of addiction. Materials and Methods The design of the present research is correlational analytic. The population consists of all young addicted or non-addicted people between the ages 18 to 35 and the sample consists of 82 addicted and 223 non-addicted young people in Tehran who were selected randomly and simply. The initial form included 120 questions which were administered on the sample in three stages. The data was analyzed through descriptive statistic and factor analysis. Results In this questionnaire four factors of depression and miserableness, having a positive attitude to drug, stress and anxiety and finally seeking high levels of excitement were respectively the strongest factors in predicting the risk of drug-abuse and addiction. The validity of the questionnaire which consists of 75 questions in the final form was calculated through internal consistency. Cronbach alpha of the whole questionnaire was 0.97, which that of the factor of depression and miserableness was 0.96, the factor of a positive attitude to drug was 0.93, the factor of stress and anxiety was 0.90 and the factor of high excitement-seeking was 0.80. Conclusions The evaluation of the questionnaire for identifying the individuals in the risk of addiction showed that the questionnaire benefits from appropriate validity and reliability. Therefore, it can be used in preventive fields and research. Moreover, by illuminating interpersonal factors that are effective in drug

Clinicians' preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries.

PubMed

Sarmadi, Roxana; Gahnberg, Lars; Gabre, Pia

2011-05-01

Clinicians handle diagnosis and treatment planning of caries in different ways, and the underlying factors leading to management of risk and choice of treatment strategies are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dentists' and dental hygienists' choices of preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries. A sample of dental records from 432 of a total of 3372 children in a Swedish county identified as at high risk of developing caries, aged 3-19 years, was randomly selected for analysis in the study. Information of importance for the therapists' choice of caries management strategies were obtained from the dental records. The results showed that therapists considered tooth brushing instruction and fluoride treatment at the clinic to be of primary importance as treatment given in 60% of the cases, respectively. Fluoride treatment at home and diet counselling were both chosen in half of the cases. Fissure sealant therapy was used in 21% of the cases, and 15% of the patients did not receive any preventive treatment at all. The results also showed that girls more often received fluoride treatment, tooth brushing instruction and oral hygiene information than boys. In the majority of the children and adolescents, several preventive measures were given. The more background factors included in the risk assessment, the more preventive measures were given. The differences between the treatments given to girls and the boys need to be further investigated. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

[Advances in the pathophysiology and management of infections in the acute phase of stroke].

PubMed

Salat, David; Campos, Mireia; Montaner, Joan

2012-12-15

Infection in the acute phase of stroke has been identified as an independent predictor of poor outcome, both in the short and intermediate term. Various factors raising the risk of developing an infection (exposure to multiple pathogens, disruption of the protective function of the mucous membranes and a state of relative immunosuppression) coexist during the acute phase of stroke. Several risk factors have been identified for their development (especially increasing age and stroke severity). It has been proposed that infection contributes to a worse prognosis through different mechanisms, notably the development of an inflammatory response to brain tissue (with a potential to add secondary damage to that caused by the ischemic insult). Clinical trials evaluating the prophylactic and early administration of antibiotics to reduce the incidence of infection in the acute phase of stroke have yielded inconsistent results. Immunomodulating strategies, which may provide therapeutic alternatives in the future, are currently being evaluated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Utility of the HARP Diabetes Risk Calculator in Identifying Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at Risk of Unplanned Hospital Presentations.

PubMed

McGrath, Rachel T; Dryden, Justin C; Newlyn, Neroli; Pamplona, Elline; O'Dea, Judy; Hocking, Samantha L; Glastras, Sarah J; Fulcher, Gregory R

2018-03-31

Prevention of hospitalisation is an important aspect of type 2 diabetes (T2D) management. We retrospectively determined the utility of the Hospital Admission Risk Programme (HARP) Diabetes Risk Calculator (HARP tool) in identifying patients with T2D more likely to have unplanned hospital presentations. The HARP tool includes a clinical assessment score (Part A) and a psychosocial and self-management impact score (Part B), and categorises patients into low, medium, high or urgent risk of acute hospitalisation. It was completed for T2D patients attending Royal North Shore Hospital, Sydney in 2013. Within the cohort of 278 patients (age 65.3 ± 10.5 years; 62.9% male; diabetes duration 10.7 ± 6.6 years), 67.3% were classified as low risk, 32.7% as medium risk and none as high or urgent risk. Following adjustment for confounders, a medium HARP score was associated with a 3.1-fold increased risk of unplanned hospital presentations in the subsequent 12 months (95% CI: 1.35 to 7.31; p = 0.008). Part A scores were significantly higher for patients that presented to hospital compared to those that did not (14.2 ± 6.8 vs. 11.4 ± 5.5; p = 0.034), whereas there was no difference in Part B scores (p = 0.860). In patients with low and medium HARP scores, clinical features were more predictive of hospital presentations than certain psychosocial or self-management factors in the cohort. Further studies are required to characterise unplanned hospitalisation in patients with higher HARP scores, or whether additional psychosocial assessments could improve the tool's predictability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Using a personality inventory to identify risk of distress and burnout among early stage medical students.

PubMed

Bughi, Stephanie A; Lie, Desiree A; Zia, Stephanie K; Rosenthal, Jane

2017-01-01

Distress and burnout are common among medical students and negatively impact students' physical, mental, and emotional health. Personality inventories such as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), used in medical education, may have a role in identifying burnout risk early. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among 185 1st year medical students with the MBTI, the general well-being schedule (GWB), and Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS). Descriptive statistics and one-way MANOVAs were used to identify the prevalence and differences in MBTI preferences and distress/burnout risk. Response rate was 185/185 (100%). Distress (GWB) was reported by 84/185 (45.4%). High scores on exhaustion were reported by 118/182 (64.8%), cynicism by 76/182 (41.8%), and decreased professional efficacy by 38/182 (20.9%) for the three dimensions of the MBI-SS. Only 21/182 (11.5%) of respondents had high scores on all three dimensions of burnout. Students with MBTI preferences for extraversion reported greater positive well-being (P < 0.05), self-control (P < 0.05), professional efficacy (P < 0.01), and lower levels of depression (P < 0.01) compared with those with introversion preference. Distress and burnout are prevalent early in medical training. The significant difference between extraversion and introversion in relation to distress and burnout deserves further study. Use of a personality inventory may help identify students at risk of burnout and allow appropriate early stress management.

The application of visceral adiposity index in identifying type 2 diabetes risks based on a prospective cohort in China.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Xu, Yan; Guo, Zhi-rong; Yang, Jie; Wu, Ming; Hu, Xiao-shu

2014-07-08

Visceral adiposity index (VAI), a novel sex-specific index for visceral fat measurement, has been proposed recently. We evaluate the efficacy of VAI in identifying diabetes risk in Chinese people, and compare the predictive ability between VAI and other body fatness indices, i.e., waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and waist- to- height ratio (WHtR). Participants (n=3,461) were recruited from an ongoing cohort study in Jiangsu Province, China. Hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) between diabetes risk and different body fatness indices were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard regression model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under curve (AUC) were applied to compare the ability of identifying diabetes risk between VAI, WC, WHtR and BMI. A total number of 160 new diabetic cases occurred during the follow-up, with an incidence of 4.6%. Significant positive associations were observed for VAI with blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, triglyceride, WC, BMI and WHtR. Moreover, increased VAI was observed to be associated with higher diabetes risk with a positive dose-response trend (p for trend<0.001). As compared to individuals with the lowest VAI, those who had the highest VAI were at 2.55-fold risk of diabetes (95% CI: 1.58-4.11). The largest AUC was observed for VAI, following by WC, WHtR and BMI. VAI is positively associated with the risk of diabetes. Compared to other indices for body fatness measurements, VAI is a better and convenience surrogate marker for visceral adipose measurement and could be used in identifying the risk of diabetes in large-scale epidemiologic studies.

Validating the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II) Using Set-ESEM: Identifying Psychosocial Risk Factors in a Sample of School Principals

PubMed Central

Dicke, Theresa; Marsh, Herbert W.; Riley, Philip; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Horwood, Marcus

2018-01-01

School principals world-wide report high levels of strain and attrition resulting in a shortage of qualified principals. It is thus crucial to identify psychosocial risk factors that reflect principals' occupational wellbeing. For this purpose, we used the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II), a widely used self-report measure covering multiple psychosocial factors identified by leading occupational stress theories. We evaluated the COPSOQ-II regarding factor structure and longitudinal, discriminant, and convergent validity using latent structural equation modeling in a large sample of Australian school principals (N = 2,049). Results reveal that confirmatory factor analysis produced marginally acceptable model fit. A novel approach we call set exploratory structural equation modeling (set-ESEM), where cross-loadings were only allowed within a priori defined sets of factors, fit well, and was more parsimonious than a full ESEM. Further multitrait-multimethod models based on the set-ESEM confirm the importance of a principal's psychosocial risk factors; Stressors and depression were related to demands and ill-being, while confidence and autonomy were related to wellbeing. We also show that working in the private sector was beneficial for showing a low psychosocial risk, while other demographics have little effects. Finally, we identify five latent risk profiles (high risk to no risk) of school principals based on all psychosocial factors. Overall the research presented here closes the theory application gap of a strong multi-dimensional measure of psychosocial risk-factors. PMID:29760670

Validating the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II) Using Set-ESEM: Identifying Psychosocial Risk Factors in a Sample of School Principals.

PubMed

Dicke, Theresa; Marsh, Herbert W; Riley, Philip; Parker, Philip D; Guo, Jiesi; Horwood, Marcus

2018-01-01

School principals world-wide report high levels of strain and attrition resulting in a shortage of qualified principals. It is thus crucial to identify psychosocial risk factors that reflect principals' occupational wellbeing. For this purpose, we used the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ-II), a widely used self-report measure covering multiple psychosocial factors identified by leading occupational stress theories. We evaluated the COPSOQ-II regarding factor structure and longitudinal, discriminant, and convergent validity using latent structural equation modeling in a large sample of Australian school principals ( N = 2,049). Results reveal that confirmatory factor analysis produced marginally acceptable model fit. A novel approach we call set exploratory structural equation modeling (set-ESEM), where cross-loadings were only allowed within a priori defined sets of factors, fit well, and was more parsimonious than a full ESEM. Further multitrait-multimethod models based on the set-ESEM confirm the importance of a principal's psychosocial risk factors; Stressors and depression were related to demands and ill-being, while confidence and autonomy were related to wellbeing. We also show that working in the private sector was beneficial for showing a low psychosocial risk, while other demographics have little effects. Finally, we identify five latent risk profiles (high risk to no risk) of school principals based on all psychosocial factors. Overall the research presented here closes the theory application gap of a strong multi-dimensional measure of psychosocial risk-factors.

CONTROLLED DIESEL EXPOSURES: INTER-PHASING HUMAN AND ANIMAL STUDIES AND THEIR USE IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Controlled diesel exposures: Inter-phasing human and animal studies and their use in the risk assessment process.
Michael C. Madden, US EPA.

Particulate matter (PM) has been reported to be associated with health effects (e.g., premature deaths, hospitalizations, lung ...

Investigation of gene-environment interactions between 47 newly identified breast cancer susceptibility loci and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Rudolph, Anja; Milne, Roger L; Truong, Thérèse; Knight, Julia A; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Behrens, Sabine; Eilber, Ursula; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Munday, Hannah R; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Brand, Judith S; Olson, Janet; Vachon, Celine M; Hallberg, Emily; Castelao, J Esteban; Carracedo, Angel; Torres, Maria; Li, Jingmei; Humphreys, Keith; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Menegaux, Florence; Flyger, Henrik; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Yesilyurt, Betul T; Floris, Giuseppe; Leunen, Karin; Engelhardt, Ellen G; Broeks, Annegien; Rutgers, Emiel J; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Cross, Simon; Reed, Malcolm; Gonzalez-Neira, Anna; Arias Perez, José Ignacio; Provenzano, Elena; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Spurdle, Amanda; Häberle, Lothar; Beckmann, Matthias W; Ekici, Arif B; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; McLean, Catriona; Baglietto, Laura; Chanock, Stephen J; Lissowska, Jolanta; Sherman, Mark E; Brüning, Thomas; Hamann, Ute; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk; Ashworth, Alan; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kataja, Vesa; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Swerdlow, Anthony; Giles, Graham G; Brenner, Hermann; Fasching, Peter A; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Hopper, John; Benítez, Javier; Cox, Angela; Andrulis, Irene L; Lambrechts, Diether; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Couch, Fergus; Czene, Kamila; Bojesen, Stig E; Easton, Doug F; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Guénel, Pascal; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul D P; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chang-Claude, Jenny

2015-03-15

A large genotyping project within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) recently identified 41 associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and overall breast cancer (BC) risk. We investigated whether the effects of these 41 SNPs, as well as six SNPs associated with estrogen receptor (ER) negative BC risk are modified by 13 environmental risk factors for BC. Data from 22 studies participating in BCAC were pooled, comprising up to 26,633 cases and 30,119 controls. Interactions between SNPs and environmental factors were evaluated using an empirical Bayes-type shrinkage estimator. Six SNPs showed interactions with associated p-values (pint ) <1.1 × 10(-3) . None of the observed interactions was significant after accounting for multiple testing. The Bayesian False Discovery Probability was used to rank the findings, which indicated three interactions as being noteworthy at 1% prior probability of interaction. SNP rs6828523 was associated with increased ER-negative BC risk in women ≥170 cm (OR = 1.22, p = 0.017), but inversely associated with ER-negative BC risk in women <160 cm (OR = 0.83, p = 0.039, pint = 1.9 × 10(-4) ). The inverse association between rs4808801 and overall BC risk was stronger for women who had had four or more pregnancies (OR = 0.85, p = 2.0 × 10(-4) ), and absent in women who had had just one (OR = 0.96, p = 0.19, pint = 6.1 × 10(-4) ). SNP rs11242675 was inversely associated with overall BC risk in never/former smokers (OR = 0.93, p = 2.8 × 10(-5) ), but no association was observed in current smokers (OR = 1.07, p = 0.14, pint = 3.4 × 10(-4) ). In conclusion, recently identified BC susceptibility loci are not strongly modified by established risk factors and the observed potential interactions require confirmation in independent studies. © 2014 UICC.

School-based Study to Identify and Treat Adolescent Students at Risk for Tuberculosis Infection.

PubMed

Hatzenbuehler, Lindsay A; Starke, Jeffrey R; Graviss, Edward A; Smith, E O'Brian; Cruz, Andrea T

2016-07-01

Screening for and treating tuberculosis (TB) infection in children and adolescents is an effective way of decreasing future TB cases. However, current approaches leave many children at risk for TB unidentified. We recruited adolescent students from 2 public high schools (a magnet and a low-income) in the Houston Independent School District. Compared with the magnet school, the student population at the low-income school was larger, primarily Hispanic and economically disadvantaged. Students were educated about TB, and parents completed a risk factor questionnaire. Students with TB risk factors were tested using 2 interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs). Those with a positive IGRA received a 12-dose regimen of weekly isoniazid/rifapentine (3HP) administered via direct observation at school. Nine hundred twenty-five students received TB education; 73% of their parents submitted the TB questionnaire. Eighty-six percent of students (n = 415) with a TB risk factor identified on the study questionnaire agreed to IGRA testing. Sixteen students had at least one positive IGRA (1% [magnet], 4.1% [low-income]; P = 0.005). Recent student travel to a high-risk country (7) or contact with TB disease (2) were associated with IGRA positivity (P < 0.05). All students with a positive IGRA accepted, tolerated and completed 3HP treatment at school. School-based TB education, screening, testing using IGRAs and administration of 3HP treatment is feasible to improve the identification and treatment of adolescent students at risk for TB.

Multi-phase distribution and comprehensive ecological risk assessment of heavy metal pollutants in a river affected by acid mine drainage.

PubMed

Liao, Jianbo; Ru, Xuan; Xie, Binbin; Zhang, Wanhui; Wu, Haizhen; Wu, Chaofei; Wei, Chaohai

2017-07-01

To date, there is a lack of a comprehensive research on heavy metals detection and ecological risk assessment in river water, sediments, pore water (PW) and suspended solids (SS). Here, the concentrations of heavy metals, including Cu, Zn, Mn, Cd, Pb and As, and their distribution between the four phases was studied. Samples for analysis were taken from twelve sites of the Hengshi River, Guangdong Province, China, during the rainy and dry seasons. A new comprehensive ecological risk index (CERI) based on considering metal contents, pollution indices, toxicity coefficients and water categories is offered for prediction of potential risk on aquatic organisms. The results of comprehensive analysis showed that the highest concentrations of Cu, Zn and Mn of 6.42, 87.17 and 98.74mg/L, respectively, in PW were comparable with those in water, while concentrations of Cd, Pb and As of 609.5, 2757 and 96.38μg/L, respectively, were 2-5 times higher. The sum of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions of target metals in sediments followed the order of Cd > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cu > As. The distribution of heavy metals in phases followed the order of sediment > SS > water > PW, having the sum content in water and PW lower than 2% of total. The elevated ecological risk for a single metal and the phase were 34,585 for Cd and 1160 for water, respectively, implied Cd as a priority pollutant in the considered area. According to the CERI, the maximum risk value of 769.3 was smaller than 1160 in water, but higher than those in other phases. Out of considering the water categories and contribution coefficients, the CERI was proved to be more reliable for assessing the pollution of rivers with heavy metals. These results imply that the CERI has a potential of adequate assessment of multi-phase composite metals pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis identifies 29 additional ulcerative colitis risk loci, increasing the number of confirmed associations to 47.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; Boucher, Gabrielle; Lees, Charlie W; Franke, Andre; D'Amato, Mauro; Taylor, Kent D; Lee, James C; Goyette, Philippe; Imielinski, Marcin; Latiano, Anna; Lagacé, Caroline; Scott, Regan; Amininejad, Leila; Bumpstead, Suzannah; Baidoo, Leonard; Baldassano, Robert N; Barclay, Murray; Bayless, Theodore M; Brand, Stephan; Büning, Carsten; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Denson, Lee A; De Vos, Martine; Dubinsky, Marla; Edwards, Cathryn; Ellinghaus, David; Fehrmann, Rudolf S N; Floyd, James A B; Florin, Timothy; Franchimont, Denis; Franke, Lude; Georges, Michel; Glas, Jürgen; Glazer, Nicole L; Guthery, Stephen L; Haritunians, Talin; Hayward, Nicholas K; Hugot, Jean-Pierre; Jobin, Gilles; Laukens, Debby; Lawrance, Ian; Lémann, Marc; Levine, Arie; Libioulle, Cecile; Louis, Edouard; McGovern, Dermot P; Milla, Monica; Montgomery, Grant W; Morley, Katherine I; Mowat, Craig; Ng, Aylwin; Newman, William; Ophoff, Roel A; Papi, Laura; Palmieri, Orazio; Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Panés, Julián; Phillips, Anne; Prescott, Natalie J; Proctor, Deborah D; Roberts, Rebecca; Russell, Richard; Rutgeerts, Paul; Sanderson, Jeremy; Sans, Miquel; Schumm, Philip; Seibold, Frank; Sharma, Yashoda; Simms, Lisa A; Seielstad, Mark; Steinhart, A Hillary; Targan, Stephan R; van den Berg, Leonard H; Vatn, Morten; Verspaget, Hein; Walters, Thomas; Wijmenga, Cisca; Wilson, David C; Westra, Harm-Jan; Xavier, Ramnik J; Zhao, Zhen Z; Ponsioen, Cyriel Y; Andersen, Vibeke; Torkvist, Leif; Gazouli, Maria; Anagnou, Nicholas P; Karlsen, Tom H; Kupcinskas, Limas; Sventoraityte, Jurgita; Mansfield, John C; Kugathasan, Subra; Silverberg, Mark S; Halfvarson, Jonas; Rotter, Jerome I; Mathew, Christopher G; Griffiths, Anne M; Gearry, Richard; Ahmad, Tariq; Brant, Steven R; Chamaillard, Mathias; Satsangi, Jack; Cho, Judy H; Schreiber, Stefan; Daly, Mark J; Barrett, Jeffrey C; Parkes, Miles; Annese, Vito; Hakonarson, Hakon; Radford-Smith, Graham; Duerr, Richard H; Vermeire, Séverine; Weersma, Rinse K; Rioux, John D

2011-03-01

Genome-wide association studies and candidate gene studies in ulcerative colitis have identified 18 susceptibility loci. We conducted a meta-analysis of six ulcerative colitis genome-wide association study datasets, comprising 6,687 cases and 19,718 controls, and followed up the top association signals in 9,628 cases and 12,917 controls. We identified 29 additional risk loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), increasing the number of ulcerative colitis-associated loci to 47. After annotating associated regions using GRAIL, expression quantitative trait loci data and correlations with non-synonymous SNPs, we identified many candidate genes that provide potentially important insights into disease pathogenesis, including IL1R2, IL8RA-IL8RB, IL7R, IL12B, DAP, PRDM1, JAK2, IRF5, GNA12 and LSP1. The total number of confirmed inflammatory bowel disease risk loci is now 99, including a minimum of 28 shared association signals between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome in Nigeria: A multicentre observational study.

PubMed

Desalu, Olufemi O; Onyedum, Cajetan C; Adeoti, Adekunle O; Fadare, Joseph O; Sanya, Emmanuel O; Fawale, Michael B; Bello, Hamzat A

2017-06-01

Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with significant health consequences. A significant proportion of hospitalized patients at risk for obstructive sleep apnoea were never identified and referred for polysomnography for diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in tertiary hospitals in Nigeria. This was a multicentre observational study of adult patients hospitalized in three selected hospitals from 15th January to 17th March 2015. Berlin questionnaire and Epworth sleepiness scale were used to assess for obstructive sleep apnoea risk and excessive daytime sleepiness respectively. Additional questions on traditional risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea were also obtained. Nine hundred and twenty-six patients were recruited into the study. Respondents' mean age was 44.3 years ± 15.2years, 486 (52.5%) were females and 556 (60.0%) had one or more medical co-morbidity and none of the patients had a previous diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea. Factors that were independently associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea include systemic hypertension(aOR-10.33;95%: CI 6.42-16.61), obesity(aOR-7.87;95% CI: 4.33-14.29); excessive daytime sleepiness (aOR-3.77;95% CI :2.28-6.22), tobacco smoking (aOR-2.99;95% CI: 1.76-5.07), snoring in a first-degree relative (aOR-1.83;95% CI: 1.19-2.81); and the use of sedative (aOR-1.82;95% CI: 1.06-3.15). This study shows that patients with systemic hypertension, obesity, excessive daytime sleepiness, history of smoking, snoring in a first-degree relative and use of sedatives are at high risk of obstructive sleep apnoea. None of the patients at high risk had a previous diagnosis of sleep apnoea by a physician, highlighting the diagnostic challenges of this condition. The results of this study will assist health care professionals in early identification of individuals at risk of

Improving flood risk management through risk communication strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodoque, Jose Maria; Diez Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina, Jorge; Cortes, Beatriz

2016-04-01

A suitable level of social perception about flood risk and awareness of Civil Protection Plans are critical to minimize disasters and damages due to flash floods. In order to improve risk perception, awareness and, as a result, the effectiveness of Civil Protection Plans, it is often required the implementation of communication plans. This research proposes a guide recommendation framework to enhance local population preparedness, prevention and response when a flash flood occurs. The research setting was a village (Navaluenga) located in Central Spain with 2,027 inhabitants. It is crossed by the Alberche river and Chorreron stream (both tributaries of the Tagus river), which are prone to flash floods. In a first phase, we assessed citizens' flash-flood risk perception and level of awareness regarding some key variables of the Civil Protection Plan. To this end, a questionnaire survey was designed and 254 adults, a sample representing roughly 12% of the population census, were interviewed. Responses were analysed, comparing awareness regarding preparedness and response actions with those previously defined in the Civil Protection Plan. In addition, we carried out a latent class cluster analysis aimed at identifying the different groups present among the respondents. Next, a risk communication plan was designed and implemented. It aimed to improve the understanding of flood risk among local people; and it comprises briefings, quiz-answers, contests of stories and flood images and intergenerational workshops. Finally, participants in the first phase were reached again and a new survey was performed. The results derived from these second questionnaires were statistically treated using the same approach of the first phase. Additionally, a t-test for paired samples and Pearson Chi-Square test was implemented in order to detect possible improvements in the perception and awareness. Preliminary results indicate that in Navaluenga there is a low social perception of flood

Decision Tree Identified Risk Groups with High Suicidal Ideation in South Korea: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Kim, Jong Hyen; Hyoung, Hee Kyoung

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk groups with high suicidal ideation among South Korean adults. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted using secondary data from the 2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). A total of 5,963 adults aged 19 years and older who participated in the 2011 KNHANES served as participants. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its related factors, including physical, psychological, health behavioral, and sociodemographic characteristics, were examined. Descriptive statistics and a decision tree were used for data analysis. Nine groups with high suicidal ideation were identified. The coexistence of depression and high levels of stress increased the prevalence of suicidal ideation. The highest risk group was widowed or divorced adults with depression and high levels of stress, and 82.5% of these participants had suicidal ideation (the prevalence rate of this group was 5.7 times higher than the mean suicidal ideation prevalence rate in this study). Public health nurses and community mental health professionals should recognize risk groups with high suicidal ideation, and target these groups when implementing preventive interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevention of pressure sores by identifying patients at risk.

PubMed Central

Andersen, K E; Jensen, O; Kvorning, S A; Bach, E

1982-01-01

The risk of pressure sores developing in patients admitted with acute conditions was assessed by a simple risk score system based on age, reduced mobility, incontinence, pronounced emaciation, redness over bony prominences, unconsciousness, dehydration, and paralysis in a prospective clinical study. During seven months in 1977, 600 of 3571 patients were classified as at risk. Of these 35 (5.8%) developed sores compared with five (0.2%) of those not at risk. The results of this study compared with those over the same period in 1976 show that close observation of at-risk patients and early detection of pressure sores prevents their development. PMID:6803980

CUTOFF POINT OF THE PHASE ANGLE IN PRE-RADIOTHERAPY CANCER PATIENTS.

PubMed

Souza Thompson Motta, Rachel; Alves Castanho, Ivany; Guillermo Coca Velarde, Luis

2015-11-01

malnutrition is a common complication for cancer patients. The phase angle (PA), direct measurement of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), has been considered a predictor of body cell mass and prognostic indicator. Cutoff points for phase angle (PA) associated with nutritional risk in cancer patients have not been determined yet. assess the possibility of determining the cutoff point for PA to identify nutritional risk in pre-radiotherapy cancer patients. sample group: Patients from both genders diagnosed with cancer and sent for ambulatory radiotherapy. body mass index (BMI), percentage of weight loss (% WL), mid-arm circumference (MAC), triceps skinfold thickness (TST), mid-arm muscle circumference (MAMC), mid-arm muscle area (MAMA), score and categorical assessment obtained using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) form, PA and standardized phase angle (SPA). Kappa coefficient was used to test the degree of agreement between the diagnoses of nutritional risk obtained from several different methods of nutritional assessment. Cutoff points for the PA through anthropometric indicators and PG-SGA were determined by using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and patient survival was analyzed with the Cox regression method. the cutoff points with the greatest discriminatory power were those obtained from BMI (5.2) and the categorical assessment of PG-SGA (5.4). The diagnosis obtained using these cutoff points showed a significant association with risk of death for the patients in the sample group. we recommend using the cutoff point 5.2 for the PA as a criterion for identifying nutritional risk in pre-radiotherapy cancer patients. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of Intrusive Advising on the Persistence of First-Year Science, Technology, and Mathematics Students Identified Using a Risk Prediction Instrument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Matthew A.

2013-01-01

Set in a large, urban, public university, this study explores the use of an institutionally specific risk instrument developed to identify students who had a high risk of attrition and the effectiveness of subsequent interventions deployed through advising. Though implemented throughout the institution, this study identified control and treatment…

Undisclosed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Risk Factors Identified through a Computer-based Questionnaire Program among Blood Donors in Brazil

PubMed Central

Blatyta, Paula Fraiman; Custer, Brian; Gonçalez, Thelma Terezinha; Birch, Rebecca; Lopes, Maria Esther; Ferreira, Maria Ines Lopes; Proietti, Anna Barbara Carneiro; Sabino, Ester Cerdeira; Page, Kimberly; de Almeida Neto, Cesar

2013-01-01

Background HIV risk factor screening among blood donors remains a cornerstone for the safety of blood supply and is dependent on prospective donor self-disclosure and an attentive predonation interview. Residual risk of HIV transmission through blood transfusion is higher in Brazil than in many other countries. Audio computer-assisted structured-interview (ACASI) has been shown to increase self-reporting of risk behaviors. Study design and methods This cross-sectional study was conducted between January 2009 and March 2011 at four Brazilian blood centers to identify the population of HIV-negative eligible blood donors that answered face-to-face interviews without disclosing risks, but subsequently disclosed deferrable risk factors by ACASI. Compared to the donor interview, the ACASI contained expanded content on demographics, sexual behavior and other HIV risk factors questions. Results 901 HIV-negative blood donors were interviewed. On the ACASI, 13% of donors (N=120) declared a risk factor that would have resulted in deferral that was not disclosed during the face-to-face assessment. The main risk factors identified were recent unprotected sex with an unknown or irregular partner (49 donors), sex with a person with exposure to blood/ fluids (26 donors), multiple sexual partners (19 donors), and male-male sexual behavior (10 donors). Independent factors associated with the disclosure of any risk factor for HIV were age (≥40 years vs. 18–25 years, AOR=0.45; 95% CI 0.23–0.88) and blood center (Hemope vs. Hemominas, AOR=2.51; 95% CI 1.42–4.44). Conclusion ACASI elicited increased disclosure of HIV risk factors among blood donors. ACASI may be a valuable modality of interview to be introduced in Brazilian blood banks. PMID:23521083

Screening in Primary Care: What Is the Best Way to Identify At-Risk Youth for Substance Use?

PubMed

D'Amico, Elizabeth J; Parast, Layla; Meredith, Lisa S; Ewing, Brett A; Shadel, William G; Stein, Bradley D

2016-12-01

It is important to improve primary care providers' capability to identify youth at risk for alcohol and other drug use. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition criteria to compare screeners for youth for both alcohol and marijuana, given that these are the most frequently used substances by this age group. We compared the psychometric performance of 4 screeners: the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Screening Guide (NIAAA SG), the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, the Car-Relax-Alone-Forget-Family and Friends-Trouble (CRAFFT) screener, and the Personal Experience Screening Questionnaire Problem Severity Scale (PESQ-PS) in identifying alcohol and marijuana use outcomes. Youth age 12 through 18 (N = 1573; 27% black, 51% Hispanic) were screened with the NIAAA SG, followed by a Web survey that included the other screeners and outcomes. Sensitivity for alcohol outcomes indicated that the NIAAA SG (0.87) did not perform as well as the CRAFFT (0.97) or PESQ-PS (0.97) screeners but performed better than the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (0.70). The pattern for sensitivity across screeners for marijuana outcomes was similar. An important tradeoff in primary care settings is precision versus practicality. Because of brevity and focus on frequency of drinking, the NIAAA SG offers ease of administration and is good at identifying youth with probably problematic drinking levels. The PESQ-PS and the CRAFFT correctly identify more at-risk youth for alcohol and marijuana than the NIAAA SG. Future work is needed to elucidate how to efficiently and accurately identify at-risk youth in the primary care setting, including determining the best cutoff points to use to increase sensitivity. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

"It drives us to do it": pregnant adolescents identify drivers for sexual risk-taking.

PubMed

King Jones, Tammy C

2010-01-01

Sexual risk-taking behaviors have a negative effect on the heath and future of American adolescents. To gain insight into these behaviors and preventative efforts, this study explored the experiences and perceptions of 15 pregnant adolescents using a qualitative feminist approach and in-depth interviews. As participants discussed sex education, each identified influences on sexual decision-making that often overpowered the information received. Content analysis and constant comparison of this data led to the overarching theme "Drivers for Sexual Risk-taking." Drivers were categorized as internal and external and each demonstrated a significant influence on adolescent sexual decision-making. Results of this study can inform the development of educational efforts, reform of social policy, and the focus of future research.

Mild cognitive impairment: an opportunity to identify patients at high risk for progression to Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Levey, Allan; Lah, James; Goldstein, Felicia; Steenland, Kyle; Bliwise, Donald

2006-07-01

There is increasing evidence that subtle losses in cognitive function may be symptomatic of a transition to early Alzheimer's disease (AD). Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to AD. Of the MCI subtypes, patients with amnestic MCI (a-MCI) are at greatest risk. The objectives of this article were to review the relationship between MCI, normal aging, and AD, and to summarize recent research on the diagnosis and potential treatment of MCI. Relevant articles were identified through searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE using the terms mild cognitive impairment; cognitive impairment, no dementia; and dementia prodrome, with no restrictions as to year. Additional papers of interest were identified from the reference lists of the identified articles. The search was current as of February 2006. Guidelines and recommendations are being developed to assist physicians in diagnosing MCI, identifying its subtype and etiology, understanding the risks for conversion to AD, and managing disease progression. Given the existence of a subset of individuals with a-MCI, who are at greatest risk for progression to AD but still have high levels of cognition and function, the ability to improve symptoms and delay progression to AD would be particularly beneficial. In a 3-year, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 769 patients with a-MCI, treatment with the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil was associated with a significantly lower rate of progression to AD compared with placebo during the first 12 months of treatment (hazard ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.24-0.76; P=0.004) but not at later time points. Of other types of agents that have been investigated (antioxidants, estrogen replacement therapy, cyclooxygenase-2-selective inhibitors), none have shown significant beneficial effects in delaying cognitive decline or progression to AD. New drugs such as secretase inhibitors, small

Identifying Relationships between High-Risk Sexual Behaviors and Screening Positive for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea in School-Wide Screening Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salerno, Jennifer; Darling-Fisher, Cindy; Hawkins, Nicole M.; Fraker, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Background: This article describes a school-wide sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening to identify adolescent high-risk sexual behaviors, STI history/incidence, and presence of chlamydia and gonorrhea, and examines relationships between high-risk behaviors and screening positive for chlamydia and gonorrhea in an alternative high school…

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

[Facilitating the diagnosis of depression and burnout by identifying demographic and work-related risk and protective factors among nurses].

PubMed

Ádám, Szilvia; Nistor, Anikó; Nistor, Katalin; Cserháti, Zoltán; Mészáros, Veronika

2015-08-09

Depression and burnout are frequent comorbidities among nurses. Despite similar symptoms, their management differ. Therefore, their timely diagnosis is essential. To identify demographic and work-related risk and protective factors of burnout and depression, and facilitate their diagnosis. A cross-sectional study among 1,713 nurses was carried out. Depression and burnout were assessed by the shortened Beck Depression Questionnaire and Maclach Burnout Inventory, respectively. Risk and protective factors were explored using t-tests and analysis of variance. The prevalence of depression and moderate-to-high burnout was 35.1% and 34-74%, respectively. Having a partner/child and longer employment in the outpatient setting protected from burnout. Lack of a partner and male sex emerged as risk factors of depression and depersonalisation, respectively. High prevalence of depression and burnout among nurses poses a significant public health issue. Familiarity with the disease-specific risk and protective factors identified in this research may facilitate timely diagnosis and effective disease management.

Ability of the plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in an east Asian population.

PubMed

Sung, Ki-Chul; Reaven, Gerald; Kim, Sun

2014-07-01

The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) has identified increased cardio-metabolic risk and outcome in European populations. The goal of this study was to see if this ratio would also have clinical utility in identifying cardio-metabolic risk in an East Asian population. Measurements of various cardio-metabolic risk factors, including coronary calcium scores, were available on 12,166 apparently healthy Korean adults. Approximately 25% of men and women with the highest TG/HDL-C ratios were classified as being at high cardio-metabolic risk, and their risk factor profiles compared to the remainder of the population, as well as to individuals with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). High cardio-metabolic risk (upper 25%) was defined as a TG/HDL-C ratio ≥3.5 (men) or ≥2.0 (women), and all cardio-metabolic risk factors measured, including coronary calcium scores, were significantly more adverse when compared to individuals beneath these cut-points. Although cardio-metabolic risk profiles appeared reasonably comparable in subjects identified by either a high TG/HDL-C or a diagnosis of MetS, use of the TG/HDL-C increased the numbers at high risk. Evidence that determination of the plasma TG/HDL-C concentration ratio provides a simple way to identify individual at increased cardio-metabolic risk has been extended to an East Asian population. The ability of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio to accomplish this goal is comparable to that achieved using the more complicated MetS criteria. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

PubMed

Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

2015-04-01

Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

Obstructive sleep apnea among commercial motor vehicle drivers: using evidence-based practice to identify risk factors.

PubMed

Olszewski, Kimberly; Wolf, Debra

2013-11-01

Commercial motor vehicle driving is a hazardous occupation, having the third highest fatality rate among common U.S. jobs. Among the estimated 14 million U.S. commercial motor vehicle drivers, the prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea is reported to be 17% to 28%. Despite the identified increased prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea among commercial motor vehicle drivers, federal law does not require that they be screened for obstructive sleep apnea. This article presents an evidence-based practice change project; the authors developed, implemented, and evaluated a screening program to identify commercial motor vehicle drivers' risk for obstructive sleep apnea during commercial driver medical examinations. The results of this practice change indicated screening for obstructive sleep apnea during the commercial driver medical examination led to improved identification of obstructive sleep apnea risk among commercial motor vehicle drivers and should be a clinical standard in occupational health clinics. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

HPV-DNA testing for patients with ASC-US helps identify the women who have a high risk for precancerous cervical lesions.

PubMed

Moarcăs, M; Georgescu, I C; Moarcăs, R; Badea, M; Cîrstoiu, M

2014-01-01

The cytological interpretation of ASC-US represents a category of morphologic uncertainty. For patients with this result, other tests are necessary in order to determine the risk for cervical lesions. 198 patients with ASC-US cytology have been analyzed between 2008 and 2013. All the patients included in the study have subsequently had a high oncogenic HPV testing and colposcopy risk. 103 (52%) patients tested positive for high risk HPV and 21 (10%) had associated colposcopy changes and precancerous and cancerous lesions identified through biopsy. 95 (48%) patients tested negative for HPV and none of these women had lesions at colposcopy. High oncogenic risk HPV testing was proven useful in identifying the patients with ASC-US cytology who are at high risk for cervical lesions (100% sensibility). In this study, the HPV testing had a negative predictive value of 100%, which uselessly renders a further colposcopy evaluation. HPV testing for women with ASC-US is not specific in identifying women with cervical lesions (Specificity 53%) and this results from a high prevalence of limited HPV infections in an age group which is less than 30 years old. High risk HPV testing for women with ASC-US cervical cytology is useful in determining the risk for precancerous and cancerous cervical lesions. A positive result is associated with a high risk for cervical lesions (20%) and for these patients colposcopy is necessary. For women with a negative result, the risk for cervical lesions is practically null so colposcopy is not required.

Consumer-phase Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis risk assessment for egg-containing food products.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Moore, Christina M; Yang, Hong; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Morales, Roberta; Cates, Sheryl C; Cowen, Peter

2006-06-01

We describe a one-dimensional probabilistic model of the role of domestic food handling behaviors on salmonellosis risk associated with the consumption of eggs and egg-containing foods. Six categories of egg-containing foods were defined based on the amount of egg contained in the food, whether eggs are pooled, and the degree of cooking practiced by consumers. We used bootstrap simulation to quantify uncertainty in risk estimates due to sampling error, and sensitivity analysis to identify key sources of variability and uncertainty in the model. Because of typical model characteristics such as nonlinearity, interaction between inputs, thresholds, and saturation points, Sobol's method, a novel sensitivity analysis approach, was used to identify key sources of variability. Based on the mean probability of illness, examples of foods from the food categories ranked from most to least risk of illness were: (1) home-made salad dressings/ice cream; (2) fried eggs/boiled eggs; (3) omelettes; and (4) baked foods/breads. For food categories that may include uncooked eggs (e.g., home-made salad dressings/ice cream), consumer handling conditions such as storage time and temperature after food preparation were the key sources of variability. In contrast, for food categories associated with undercooked eggs (e.g., fried/soft-boiled eggs), the initial level of Salmonella contamination and the log10 reduction due to cooking were the key sources of variability. Important sources of uncertainty varied with both the risk percentile and the food category under consideration. This work adds to previous risk assessments focused on egg production and storage practices, and provides a science-based approach to inform consumer risk communications regarding safe egg handling practices.

Obstetric care providers are able to assess psychosocial risks, identify and refer high-risk pregnant women: validation of a short assessment tool - the KINDEX Greek version.

PubMed

Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

2015-02-21

Prenatal assessment for psychosocial risk factors and prevention and intervention is scarce and, in most cases, nonexistent in obstetrical care. In this study we aimed to evaluate if the KINDEX, a short instrument developed in Germany, is a useful tool in the hands of non-trained medical staff, in order to identify and refer women in psychosocial risk to the adequate mental health and social services. We also examined the criterion-related concurrent validity of the tool through a validation interview carried out by an expert clinical psychologist. Our final objective was to achieve the cultural adaptation of the KINDEX Greek Version and to offer a valid tool for the psychosocial risk assessment to the obstetric care providers. Two obstetricians and five midwives carried out 93 KINDEX interviews (duration 20 minutes) with pregnant women to assess psychosocial risk factors present during pregnancy. Afterwards they referred women who they identified having two or more psychosocial risk factors to the mental health attention unit of the hospital. During the validation procedure an expert clinical psychologist carried out diagnostic interviews with a randomized subsample of 50 pregnant women based on established diagnostic instruments for stress and psychopathology, like the PSS-14, ESI, PDS, HSCL-25. Significant correlations between the results obtained through the assessment using the KINDEX and the risk areas of stress, psychopathology and trauma load assessed in the validation interview demonstrate the criterion-related concurrent validity of the KINDEX. The referral accuracy of the medical staff is confirmed through comparisons between pregnant women who have and have not been referred to the mental health attention unit. Prenatal screenings for psychosocial risks like the KINDEX are feasible in public health settings in Greece. In addition, validity was confirmed in high correlations between the KINDEX results and the results of the validation interviews. The

Multiancestry association study identifies new asthma risk loci that colocalize with immune-cell enhancer marks.

PubMed

Demenais, Florence; Margaritte-Jeannin, Patricia; Barnes, Kathleen C; Cookson, William O C; Altmüller, Janine; Ang, Wei; Barr, R Graham; Beaty, Terri H; Becker, Allan B; Beilby, John; Bisgaard, Hans; Bjornsdottir, Unnur Steina; Bleecker, Eugene; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Bouzigon, Emmanuelle; Brightling, Christopher E; Brossard, Myriam; Brusselle, Guy G; Burchard, Esteban; Burkart, Kristin M; Bush, Andrew; Chan-Yeung, Moira; Chung, Kian Fan; Couto Alves, Alexessander; Curtin, John A; Custovic, Adnan; Daley, Denise; de Jongste, Johan C; Del-Rio-Navarro, Blanca E; Donohue, Kathleen M; Duijts, Liesbeth; Eng, Celeste; Eriksson, Johan G; Farrall, Martin; Fedorova, Yuliya; Feenstra, Bjarke; Ferreira, Manuel A; Freidin, Maxim B; Gajdos, Zofia; Gauderman, Jim; Gehring, Ulrike; Geller, Frank; Genuneit, Jon; Gharib, Sina A; Gilliland, Frank; Granell, Raquel; Graves, Penelope E; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Haahtela, Tari; Heckbert, Susan R; Heederik, Dick; Heinrich, Joachim; Heliövaara, Markku; Henderson, John; Himes, Blanca E; Hirose, Hiroshi; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Hofman, Albert; Holt, Patrick; Hottenga, Jouke; Hudson, Thomas J; Hui, Jennie; Imboden, Medea; Ivanov, Vladimir; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; James, Alan; Janson, Christer; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Jarvis, Deborah; Jones, Graham; Jonsdottir, Ingileif; Jousilahti, Pekka; Kabesch, Michael; Kähönen, Mika; Kantor, David B; Karunas, Alexandra S; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Koppelman, Gerard H; Kozyrskyj, Anita L; Kreiner, Eskil; Kubo, Michiaki; Kumar, Rajesh; Kumar, Ashish; Kuokkanen, Mikko; Lahousse, Lies; Laitinen, Tarja; Laprise, Catherine; Lathrop, Mark; Lau, Susanne; Lee, Young-Ae; Lehtimäki, Terho; Letort, Sébastien; Levin, Albert M; Li, Guo; Liang, Liming; Loehr, Laura R; London, Stephanie J; Loth, Daan W; Manichaikul, Ani; Marenholz, Ingo; Martinez, Fernando J; Matheson, Melanie C; Mathias, Rasika A; Matsumoto, Kenji; Mbarek, Hamdi; McArdle, Wendy L; Melbye, Mads; Melén, Erik; Meyers, Deborah; Michel, Sven; Mohamdi, Hamida; Musk, Arthur W; Myers, Rachel A; Nieuwenhuis, Maartje A E; Noguchi, Emiko; O'Connor, George T; Ogorodova, Ludmila M; Palmer, Cameron D; Palotie, Aarno; Park, Julie E; Pennell, Craig E; Pershagen, Göran; Polonikov, Alexey; Postma, Dirkje S; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Puzyrev, Valery P; Raby, Benjamin A; Raitakari, Olli T; Ramasamy, Adaikalavan; Rich, Stephen S; Robertson, Colin F; Romieu, Isabelle; Salam, Muhammad T; Salomaa, Veikko; Schlünssen, Vivi; Scott, Robert; Selivanova, Polina A; Sigsgaard, Torben; Simpson, Angela; Siroux, Valérie; Smith, Lewis J; Solodilova, Maria; Standl, Marie; Stefansson, Kari; Strachan, David P; Stricker, Bruno H; Takahashi, Atsushi; Thompson, Philip J; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Tiesler, Carla M T; Torgerson, Dara G; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Uitterlinden, André G; van der Valk, Ralf J P; Vaysse, Amaury; Vedantam, Sailaja; von Berg, Andrea; von Mutius, Erika; Vonk, Judith M; Waage, Johannes; Wareham, Nick J; Weiss, Scott T; White, Wendy B; Wickman, Magnus; Widén, Elisabeth; Willemsen, Gonneke; Williams, L Keoki; Wouters, Inge M; Yang, James J; Zhao, Jing Hua; Moffatt, Miriam F; Ober, Carole; Nicolae, Dan L

2018-01-01

We examined common variation in asthma risk by conducting a meta-analysis of worldwide asthma genome-wide association studies (23,948 asthma cases, 118,538 controls) of individuals from ethnically diverse populations. We identified five new asthma loci, found two new associations at two known asthma loci, established asthma associations at two loci previously implicated in the comorbidity of asthma plus hay fever, and confirmed nine known loci. Investigation of pleiotropy showed large overlaps in genetic variants with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The enrichment in enhancer marks at asthma risk loci, especially in immune cells, suggested a major role of these loci in the regulation of immunologically related mechanisms.

Identifying and Mitigating Risks in Security Sector Assistance for Africa’s Fragile States

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

The Logframe Handbook: A Logical Framework Approach to Project Cycle Management , Washington, D.C., 2005. 34 Identifying and Mitigating Risks in SSA...Fragile States 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER... Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD126409. v Contents Preface

Identifying and Reconciling Risk Across Sectors: The implications of differing views of risk in climate policy, environmental conservation, and the finance sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johns, T.; Henderson, I.; Thoumi, G.

2014-12-01

The presence and valuation of risk are commonalities that link the diverse fields of climate change science and policy, environmental conservation, and the financial/investment sector. However, the definition and perception of risks vary widely across these critically linked fields. The "Stranded Asset" concept developed by organizations like the Carbon Tracker Initiative begins to elucidate the links between climate change risk and financial risk. Stranded assets are those that may lose some or all value from climate disruption, changes in demand-side dynamics and/or a more stringent regulatory environment. In order to shift financial flows toward climate change mitigation, emissions-heavy activities that present finance and investment opportunities must also be assessed for their GHG-asset risk attributes in terms of their contribution and vulnerability to climate disruption, as well as other environmental externalities. Until the concept of GHG-asset risk in investment is reconciled with the risks of climate change and environmental conservation, it will not be possible to shift business and financial practices, and unlock private sector resources to address the climate change and conservation challenge. UNEP-FI is researching the application of the concept of Value-atRisk (VaR) to explore links between the financial sector and deforestation/REDD+. The research will test the hypothesis that climate risk is a financial risk, and propose tools to identify and quantify risks associated with unsustainable land-use investments. The tools developed in this research will help investors, managers and governments assess their exposures to the material REDD-related risks in their portfolios. This will inform the development of 'zero net deforestation' investment indices to allow investors to lower the 'deforestation' exposure of 'benchmark' financial indices used by many of the largest money managers. A VaR analysis will be performed, combining the notion of externality

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Requirement Metrics for Risk Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore; Huffman, Lenore; Wilson, William; Rosenberg, Linda; Hyatt, Lawrence

1996-01-01

The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) is part of the Office of Mission Assurance of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The SATC's mission is to assist National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projects to improve the quality of software which they acquire or develop. The SATC's efforts are currently focused on the development and use of metric methodologies and tools that identify and assess risks associated with software performance and scheduled delivery. This starts at the requirements phase, where the SATC, in conjunction with software projects at GSFC and other NASA centers is working to identify tools and metric methodologies to assist project managers in identifying and mitigating risks. This paper discusses requirement metrics currently being used at NASA in a collaborative effort between the SATC and the Quality Assurance Office at GSFC to utilize the information available through the application of requirements management tools.

Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study of 21,000 cases and 95,000 controls identifies new risk loci for atopic dermatitis

PubMed Central

Waage, Johannes; Baurecht, Hansjörg; Hotze, Melanie; Strachan, David P; Curtin, John A; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Tian, Chao; Takahashi, Atsushi; Esparza-Gordillo, Jorge; Alves, Alexessander Couto; Thyssen, Jacob P; den Dekker, Herman T; Ferreira, Manuel A; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Sleiman, Patrick MA; Xiao, Feng Li; Gonzalez, Juan R; Marenholz, Ingo; Kalb, Birgit; Yanes, Maria Pino; Xu, Cheng-Jian; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Groen-Blokhuis, Maria M; Venturini, Cristina; Pennell, Craig E; Barton, Sheila J; Levin, Albert M; Curjuric, Ivan; Bustamante, Mariona; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Lockett, Gabrielle A; Bacelis, Jonas; Bunyavanich, Supinda; Myers, Rachel A; Matanovic, Anja; Kumar, Ashish; Tung, Joyce Y; Hirota, Tomomitsu; Kubo, Michiaki; McArdle, Wendy L; Henderson, A J; Kemp, John P; Zheng, Jie; Smith, George Davey; Rüschendorf, Franz; Bauerfeind, Anja; Lee-Kirsch, Min Ae; Arnold, Andreas; Homuth, Georg; Schmidt, Carsten O; Mangold, Elisabeth; Cichon, Sven; Keil, Thomas; Rodríguez, Elke; Peters, Annette; Franke, Andre; Lieb, Wolfgang; Novak, Natalija; Fölster-Holst, Regina; Horikoshi, Momoko; Pekkanen, Juha; Sebert, Sylvain; Husemoen, Lise L; Grarup, Niels; de Jongste, Johan C; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Hofman, Albert; Jaddoe, Vincent WV; Pasmans, Suzanne GMA; Elbert, Niels J; Uitterlinden, André G; Marks, Guy B; Thompson, Philip J; Matheson, Melanie C; Robertson, Colin F; Ried, Janina S; Li, Jin; Zuo, Xian Bo; Zheng, Xiao Dong; Yin, Xian Yong; Sun, Liang Dan; McAleer, Maeve A; O'Regan, Grainne M; Fahy, Caoimhe MR; Campbell, Linda E; Macek, Milan; Kurek, Michael; Hu, Donglei; Eng, Celeste; Postma, Dirkje S; Feenstra, Bjarke; Geller, Frank; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Middeldorp, Christel M; Hysi, Pirro; Bataille, Veronique; Spector, Tim; Tiesler, Carla MT; Thiering, Elisabeth; Pahukasahasram, Badri; Yang, James J; Imboden, Medea; Huntsman, Scott; Vilor-Tejedor, Natàlia; Relton, Caroline L; Myhre, Ronny; Nystad, Wenche; Custovic, Adnan; Weiss, Scott T; Meyers, Deborah A; Söderhäll, Cilla; Melén, Erik; Ober, Carole; Raby, Benjamin A; Simpson, Angela; Jacobsson, Bo; Holloway, John W; Bisgaard, Hans; Sunyer, Jordi; Hensch, Nicole M Probst; Williams, L Keoki; Godfrey, Keith M; Wang, Carol A; Boomsma, Dorret I; Melbye, Mads; Koppelman, Gerard H; Jarvis, Deborah; McLean, WH Irwin; Irvine, Alan D; Zhang, Xue Jun; Hakonarson, Hakon; Gieger, Christian; Burchard, Esteban G; Martin, Nicholas G; Duijts, Liesbeth; Linneberg, Allan; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Noethen, Markus M; Lau, Susanne; Hübner, Norbert; Lee, Young-Ae; Tamari, Mayumi; Hinds, David A; Glass, Daniel; Brown, Sara J; Heinrich, Joachim; Evans, David M; Weidinger, Stephan

2015-01-01

Genetic association studies have identified 21 loci associated with atopic dermatitis risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify further susceptibility loci for this common complex skin disease, we performed a meta-analysis of >15 million genetic variants in 21,399 cases and 95,464 controls from populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry, followed by replication in 32,059 cases and 228,628 controls from 18 studies. We identified 10 novel risk loci, bringing the total number of known atopic dermatitis risk loci to 31 (with novel secondary signals at 4 of these). Notably, the new loci include candidate genes with roles in regulation of innate host defenses and T-cell function, underscoring the important contribution of (auto-)immune mechanisms to atopic dermatitis pathogenesis. PMID:26482879

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 21,000 cases and 95,000 controls identifies new risk loci for atopic dermatitis.

PubMed

Paternoster, Lavinia; Standl, Marie; Waage, Johannes; Baurecht, Hansjörg; Hotze, Melanie; Strachan, David P; Curtin, John A; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Tian, Chao; Takahashi, Atsushi; Esparza-Gordillo, Jorge; Alves, Alexessander Couto; Thyssen, Jacob P; den Dekker, Herman T; Ferreira, Manuel A; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Sleiman, Patrick Ma; Xiao, Feng Li; Gonzalez, Juan R; Marenholz, Ingo; Kalb, Birgit; Yanes, Maria Pino; Xu, Cheng-Jian; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Groen-Blokhuis, Maria M; Venturini, Cristina; Pennell, Craig E; Barton, Sheila J; Levin, Albert M; Curjuric, Ivan; Bustamante, Mariona; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Lockett, Gabrielle A; Bacelis, Jonas; Bunyavanich, Supinda; Myers, Rachel A; Matanovic, Anja; Kumar, Ashish; Tung, Joyce Y; Hirota, Tomomitsu; Kubo, Michiaki; McArdle, Wendy L; Henderson, A J; Kemp, John P; Zheng, Jie; Smith, George Davey; Rüschendorf, Franz; Bauerfeind, Anja; Lee-Kirsch, Min Ae; Arnold, Andreas; Homuth, Georg; Schmidt, Carsten O; Mangold, Elisabeth; Cichon, Sven; Keil, Thomas; Rodríguez, Elke; Peters, Annette; Franke, Andre; Lieb, Wolfgang; Novak, Natalija; Fölster-Holst, Regina; Horikoshi, Momoko; Pekkanen, Juha; Sebert, Sylvain; Husemoen, Lise L; Grarup, Niels; de Jongste, Johan C; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Hofman, Albert; Jaddoe, Vincent Wv; Pasmans, Suzanne Gma; Elbert, Niels J; Uitterlinden, André G; Marks, Guy B; Thompson, Philip J; Matheson, Melanie C; Robertson, Colin F; Ried, Janina S; Li, Jin; Zuo, Xian Bo; Zheng, Xiao Dong; Yin, Xian Yong; Sun, Liang Dan; McAleer, Maeve A; O'Regan, Grainne M; Fahy, Caoimhe Mr; Campbell, Linda E; Macek, Milan; Kurek, Michael; Hu, Donglei; Eng, Celeste; Postma, Dirkje S; Feenstra, Bjarke; Geller, Frank; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Middeldorp, Christel M; Hysi, Pirro; Bataille, Veronique; Spector, Tim; Tiesler, Carla Mt; Thiering, Elisabeth; Pahukasahasram, Badri; Yang, James J; Imboden, Medea; Huntsman, Scott; Vilor-Tejedor, Natàlia; Relton, Caroline L; Myhre, Ronny; Nystad, Wenche; Custovic, Adnan; Weiss, Scott T; Meyers, Deborah A; Söderhäll, Cilla; Melén, Erik; Ober, Carole; Raby, Benjamin A; Simpson, Angela; Jacobsson, Bo; Holloway, John W; Bisgaard, Hans; Sunyer, Jordi; Hensch, Nicole M Probst; Williams, L Keoki; Godfrey, Keith M; Wang, Carol A; Boomsma, Dorret I; Melbye, Mads; Koppelman, Gerard H; Jarvis, Deborah; McLean, Wh Irwin; Irvine, Alan D; Zhang, Xue Jun; Hakonarson, Hakon; Gieger, Christian; Burchard, Esteban G; Martin, Nicholas G; Duijts, Liesbeth; Linneberg, Allan; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Noethen, Markus M; Lau, Susanne; Hübner, Norbert; Lee, Young-Ae; Tamari, Mayumi; Hinds, David A; Glass, Daniel; Brown, Sara J; Heinrich, Joachim; Evans, David M; Weidinger, Stephan

2015-12-01

Genetic association studies have identified 21 loci associated with atopic dermatitis risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify further susceptibility loci for this common, complex skin disease, we performed a meta-analysis of >15 million genetic variants in 21,399 cases and 95,464 controls from populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry, followed by replication in 32,059 cases and 228,628 controls from 18 studies. We identified ten new risk loci, bringing the total number of known atopic dermatitis risk loci to 31 (with new secondary signals at four of these loci). Notably, the new loci include candidate genes with roles in the regulation of innate host defenses and T cell function, underscoring the important contribution of (auto)immune mechanisms to atopic dermatitis pathogenesis.

New Approach to Identify Ischemic Stroke Patients at Risk to Develop Hemorrhagic Transformation

PubMed Central

MANOLESCU, Bogdan Nicolae; JICKLING, Glen C.

2012-01-01

ABSTRACT Some patients with ischemic stroke are subject to hemorrhagic transformation, a complication leading to increased patient morbidity and mortality. The discovery of biomarkers that can be used to identify ischemic strokes prone to this complication are very important for the clinical practice because therapy could be altered to mitigate the risk. We discuss here the results of a trial that evaluated for the first time tight junction proteins as biomarkers of blood-brain barrier disruption and hemorrhagic transformation in ischemic stroke. PMID:23482691

Exome sequencing identifies rare LDLR and APOA5 alleles conferring risk for myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Do, Ron; Stitziel, Nathan O; Won, Hong-Hee; Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Duga, Stefano; Angelica Merlini, Pier; Kiezun, Adam; Farrall, Martin; Goel, Anuj; Zuk, Or; Guella, Illaria; Asselta, Rosanna; Lange, Leslie A; Peloso, Gina M; Auer, Paul L; Girelli, Domenico; Martinelli, Nicola; Farlow, Deborah N; DePristo, Mark A; Roberts, Robert; Stewart, Alexander F R; Saleheen, Danish; Danesh, John; Epstein, Stephen E; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Hovingh, G Kees; Kastelein, John J; Samani, Nilesh J; Schunkert, Heribert; Erdmann, Jeanette; Shah, Svati H; Kraus, William E; Davies, Robert; Nikpay, Majid; Johansen, Christopher T; Wang, Jian; Hegele, Robert A; Hechter, Eliana; Marz, Winfried; Kleber, Marcus E; Huang, Jie; Johnson, Andrew D; Li, Mingyao; Burke, Greg L; Gross, Myron; Liu, Yongmei; Assimes, Themistocles L; Heiss, Gerardo; Lange, Ethan M; Folsom, Aaron R; Taylor, Herman A; Olivieri, Oliviero; Hamsten, Anders; Clarke, Robert; Reilly, Dermot F; Yin, Wu; Rivas, Manuel A; Donnelly, Peter; Rossouw, Jacques E; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M; Wilson, James G; Rich, Stephen S; Bamshad, Michael J; Tracy, Russell P; Cupples, L Adrienne; Rader, Daniel J; Reilly, Muredach P; Spertus, John A; Cresci, Sharon; Hartiala, Jaana; Tang, W H Wilson; Hazen, Stanley L; Allayee, Hooman; Reiner, Alex P; Carlson, Christopher S; Kooperberg, Charles; Jackson, Rebecca D; Boerwinkle, Eric; Lander, Eric S; Schwartz, Stephen M; Siscovick, David S; McPherson, Ruth; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Abecasis, Goncalo R; Watkins, Hugh; Nickerson, Deborah A; Ardissino, Diego; Sunyaev, Shamil R; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Altshuler, David; Gabriel, Stacey; Kathiresan, Sekar

2015-02-05

Myocardial infarction (MI), a leading cause of death around the world, displays a complex pattern of inheritance. When MI occurs early in life, genetic inheritance is a major component to risk. Previously, rare mutations in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) genes have been shown to contribute to MI risk in individual families, whereas common variants at more than 45 loci have been associated with MI risk in the population. Here we evaluate how rare mutations contribute to early-onset MI risk in the population. We sequenced the protein-coding regions of 9,793 genomes from patients with MI at an early age (≤50 years in males and ≤60 years in females) along with MI-free controls. We identified two genes in which rare coding-sequence mutations were more frequent in MI cases versus controls at exome-wide significance. At low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 4.2-fold increased risk for MI; carriers of null alleles at LDLR were at even higher risk (13-fold difference). Approximately 2% of early MI cases harbour a rare, damaging mutation in LDLR; this estimate is similar to one made more than 40 years ago using an analysis of total cholesterol. Among controls, about 1 in 217 carried an LDLR coding-sequence mutation and had plasma LDL cholesterol > 190 mg dl(-1). At apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 2.2-fold increased risk for MI. When compared with non-carriers, LDLR mutation carriers had higher plasma LDL cholesterol, whereas APOA5 mutation carriers had higher plasma triglycerides. Recent evidence has connected MI risk with coding-sequence mutations at two genes functionally related to APOA5, namely lipoprotein lipase and apolipoprotein C-III (refs 18, 19). Combined, these observations suggest that, as well as LDL cholesterol, disordered metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins contributes to MI risk.

Identifying excessive vehicle idling and opportunities for off-road fuel tax credits for stationary operations in the Caltrans fleet, phase 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This report documents the research project Identifying Excessive Vehicle Idling and Opportunities for Off-Road Fuel Tax Credits for : Stationary Operations in the Caltrans Fleet - Phase 1, performed in response to a California Department of Tra...

Gene-based rare allele analysis identified a risk gene of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Kim, Jong Hun; Song, Pamela; Lim, Hyunsun; Lee, Jae-Hyung; Lee, Jun Hong; Park, Sun Ah

2014-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) has a strong propensity to run in families. However, the known risk genes excluding APOE are not clinically useful. In various complex diseases, gene studies have targeted rare alleles for unsolved heritability. Our study aims to elucidate previously unknown risk genes for AD by targeting rare alleles. We used data from five publicly available genetic studies from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP). A total of 4,171 cases and 9,358 controls were included. The genotype information of rare alleles was imputed using 1,000 genomes. We performed gene-based analysis of rare alleles (minor allele frequency≤3%). The genome-wide significance level was defined as meta P<1.8×10(-6) (0.05/number of genes in human genome = 0.05/28,517). ZNF628, which is located at chromosome 19q13.42, showed a genome-wide significant association with AD. The association of ZNF628 with AD was not dependent on APOE ε4. APOE and TREM2 were also significantly associated with AD, although not at genome-wide significance levels. Other genes identified by targeting common alleles could not be replicated in our gene-based rare allele analysis. We identified that rare variants in ZNF628 are associated with AD. The protein encoded by ZNF628 is known as a transcription factor. Furthermore, the associations of APOE and TREM2 with AD were highly significant, even in gene-based rare allele analysis, which implies that further deep sequencing of these genes is required in AD heritability studies.

Comprehensive genetic assessment of the ESR1 locus identifies a risk region for endometrial cancer.

PubMed

O'Mara, Tracy A; Glubb, Dylan M; Painter, Jodie N; Cheng, Timothy; Dennis, Joe; Attia, John; Holliday, Elizabeth G; McEvoy, Mark; Scott, Rodney J; Ashton, Katie; Proietto, Tony; Otton, Geoffrey; Shah, Mitul; Ahmed, Shahana; Healey, Catherine S; Gorman, Maggie; Martin, Lynn; Hodgson, Shirley; Fasching, Peter A; Hein, Alexander; Beckmann, Matthias W; Ekici, Arif B; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila; Darabi, Hatef; Li, Jingmei; Dürst, Matthias; Runnebaum, Ingo; Hillemanns, Peter; Dörk, Thilo; Lambrechts, Diether; Depreeuw, Jeroen; Annibali, Daniela; Amant, Frederic; Zhao, Hui; Goode, Ellen L; Dowdy, Sean C; Fridley, Brooke L; Winham, Stacey J; Salvesen, Helga B; Njølstad, Tormund S; Trovik, Jone; Werner, Henrica M J; Tham, Emma; Liu, Tao; Mints, Miriam; Bolla, Manjeet K; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Wang, Qin; Hopper, John L; Peto, Julian; Swerdlow, Anthony J; Burwinkel, Barbara; Brenner, Hermann; Meindl, Alfons; Brauch, Hiltrud; Lindblom, Annika; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Couch, Fergus J; Giles, Graham G; Kristensen, Vessela N; Cox, Angela; Pharoah, Paul D P; Dunning, Alison M; Tomlinson, Ian; Easton, Douglas F; Thompson, Deborah J; Spurdle, Amanda B

2015-10-01

Excessive exposure to estrogen is a well-established risk factor for endometrial cancer (EC), particularly for cancers of endometrioid histology. The physiological function of estrogen is primarily mediated by estrogen receptor alpha, encoded by ESR1. Consequently, several studies have investigated whether variation at the ESR1 locus is associated with risk of EC, with conflicting results. We performed comprehensive fine-mapping analyses of 3633 genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 6607 EC cases and 37 925 controls. There was evidence of an EC risk signal located at a potential alternative promoter of the ESR1 gene (lead SNP rs79575945, P=1.86×10(-5)), which was stronger for cancers of endometrioid subtype (P=3.76×10(-6)). Bioinformatic analysis suggests that this risk signal is in a functionally important region targeting ESR1, and eQTL analysis found that rs79575945 was associated with expression of SYNE1, a neighbouring gene. In summary, we have identified a single EC risk signal located at ESR1, at study-wide significance. Given SNPs located at this locus have been associated with risk for breast cancer, also a hormonally driven cancer, this study adds weight to the rationale for performing informed candidate fine-scale genetic studies across cancer types. © 2015 Society for Endocrinology.

Identifying Patients at Risk for Prehospital Sudden Cardiac Arrest at the Early Phase of Myocardial Infarction: The e-MUST Study (Evaluation en Médecine d'Urgence des Stratégies Thérapeutiques des infarctus du myocarde).

PubMed

Karam, Nicole; Bataille, Sophie; Marijon, Eloi; Giovannetti, Olivier; Tafflet, Muriel; Savary, Dominique; Benamer, Hakim; Caussin, Christophe; Garot, Philippe; Juliard, Jean-Michel; Pires, Virginie; Boche, Thévy; Dupas, François; Le Bail, Gaelle; Lamhaut, Lionel; Laborne, François; Lefort, Hugues; Mapouata, Mireille; Lapostolle, Frederic; Spaulding, Christian; Empana, Jean-Philippe; Jouven, Xavier; Lambert, Yves

2016-12-20

In-hospital mortality of ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has decreased drastically. In contrast, prehospital mortality from sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) remains high and difficult to reduce. Identification of the patients with STEMI at higher risk for prehospital SCA could facilitate rapid triage and intervention in the field. Using a prospective, population-based study evaluating all patients with STEMI managed by emergency medical services in the greater Paris area (11.7 million inhabitants) between 2006 and 2010, we identified characteristics associated with an increased risk of prehospital SCA and used these variables to build an SCA prediction score, which we validated internally and externally. In the overall STEMI population (n=8112; median age, 60 years; 78% male), SCA occurred in 452 patients (5.6%). In multivariate analysis, younger age, absence of obesity, absence of diabetes mellitus, shortness of breath, and a short delay between pain onset and call to emergency medical services were the main predictors of SCA. A score built from these variables predicted SCA, with the risk increasing 2-fold in patients with a score between 10 and 19, 4-fold in those with a score between 20 and 29, and >18-fold in patients with a score ≥30 compared with those with scores <10. The SCA rate was 28.9% in patients with a score ≥30 compared with 1.6% in patients with a score ≤9 (P for trend <0.001). The area under the curve values were 0.7033 in the internal validation sample and 0.6031 in the external validation sample. Sensitivity and specificity varied between 96.9% and 10.5% for scores ≥10 and between 18.0% and 97.6% for scores ≥30, with scores between 20 and 29 achieving the best sensitivity and specificity (65.4% and 62.6%, respectively). At the early phase of STEMI, the risk of prehospital SCA can be determined through a simple score of 5 routinely assessed predictors. This score might help optimize the dispatching and management of

The triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio identifies children who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease.

PubMed

Bailey, Daniel P; Savory, Louise A; Denton, Sarah J; Davies, Ben R; Kerr, Catherine J

2014-08-01

It is important to develop simple, reliable methods to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from intervention. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and cardiometabolic risk, cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity in children. Anthropometric, biochemical parameters, cardiorespiratory fitness and accelerometry determined physical activity were assessed in 155 children (80 girls) from 10 to 14 years of age from Bedfordshire, UK. Participants were grouped into high and low TG/HDL ratio groups, according to published thresholds. MANCOVA and logistic regression were used in the analysis. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were significantly higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio (p < 0.05). The odds of having high waist circumference (OR = 13.99; 95% CI 2.93, 69.25), elevated systolic blood pressure (5.27; 1.39, 20.01), high non-HDL cholesterol (19.47; 4.42, 85.81) and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (15.32; 3.10, 75.79) were higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio. The TG/HDL ratio values were significantly lower in those with high cardiorespiratory fitness (p = 0.01), but there was no association with physical activity. These findings support the use of the TG/HDL ratio to identify children with cardiometabolic risk factors who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying the Risk of Swallowing-Related Pulmonary Complications in Older Patients With Hip Fracture.

PubMed

Meals, Clifton; Roy, Siddharth; Medvedev, Gleb; Wallace, Matthew; Neviaser, Robert J; O'Brien, Joseph

2016-01-01

To identify and potentially modify the risk of pulmonary complications in a group of older patients with hip fracture, the authors obtained speech and language pathology consultations for these patients. Then they performed a retrospective chart review of all patients 65 years and older who were admitted to their institution between June 2011 and July 2013 with acute hip fracture, were treated surgically, and had a speech and language pathology evaluation in the immediate perioperative period. The authors identified 52 patients who met the study criteria. According to the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification system, at the time of surgery, 1 patient (2%) was classified as ASA I, 12 patients (23%) were ASA II, 26 (50%) were ASA III, and 12 (23%) were ASA IV. Based on a speech and language pathology evaluation, 22 patients (42%) were diagnosed with dysphagia. Statistical analysis showed that ASA III status and ASA IV status were meaningful predictors of dysphagia and that dysphagia itself was a strong risk factor for pulmonary aspiration, pneumonia, and aspiration pneumonitis. Evaluation by a speech and language pathologist, particularly of patients classified as ASA III or ASA IV, may be an efficient means of averting pulmonary morbidity that is common in older patients with hip fracture. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

Inventory of Personal Skills for Achievement: Validity and Reliability Study of an Instrument for Identifying Educationally At-Risk Junior [High] School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leaseburg, Melinda G.; And Others

This paper describes the development and test of an early-warning instrument for identifying at-risk students aged 10-15. A statistically sound test to identify at-risk high school students existed in the Personal Skills Map--Adolescent version (PSMA-A). This study used a modified version of PSM-A , which was renamed Personal Skills for…

Whole Genome Sequencing of High-Risk Families to Identify New Mutational Mechanisms of Breast Cancer Predisposition

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

INTRODUCTION: Despite tremendous advances in mutation detection with gene panels and exome sequencing the majority of high risk breast...2a. Align reads to the reference sequence (months 4-10) 2b. Identify SNPs, indels, CNVs and rearrangements by bioinformatic tools (months 4-10) 2c

Risk management in medical product development process using traditional FMEA and fuzzy linguistic approach: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirkire, Milind Shrikant; Rane, Santosh B.; Jadhav, Jagdish Rajaram

2015-12-01

Medical product development (MPD) process is highly multidisciplinary in nature, which increases the complexity and the associated risks. Managing the risks during MPD process is very crucial. The objective of this research is to explore risks during MPD in a dental product manufacturing company and propose a model for risk mitigation during MPD process to minimize failure events. A case study approach is employed. The existing MPD process is mapped with five phases of the customized phase gate process. The activities during each phase of development and risks associated with each activity are identified and categorized based on the source of occurrence. The risks are analyzed using traditional Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) and fuzzy FMEA. The results of two methods when compared show that fuzzy approach avoids the duplication of RPNs and helps more to convert cognition of experts into information to get values of risk factors. The critical, moderate, low level and negligible risks are identified based on criticality; risk treatments and mitigation model are proposed. During initial phases of MPD, the risks are less severe, but as the process progresses the severity of risks goes on increasing. The MPD process should be critically designed and simulated to minimize the number of risk events and their severity. To successfully develop the products/devices within the manufacturing companies, the process risk management is very essential. A systematic approach to manage risks during MPD process will lead to the development of medical products with expected quality and reliability. This is the first research of its kind having focus on MPD process risks and its management. The methodology adopted in this paper will help the developers, managers and researchers to have a competitive edge over the other companies by managing the risks during the development process.

Education and risk of incident dementia during the premotor and motor phases of essential tremor (NEDICES).

PubMed

Benito-León, Julián; Contador, Israel; Louis, Elan D; Cosentino, Stephanie; Bermejo-Pareja, Félix

2016-08-01

Individuals with late-onset essential tremor (ET) (e.g., older adults) seem to have an increased prevalence of mild cognitive impairment and dementia, and a higher risk of incident dementia. It is well-known that education has a protective role against dementia in individuals without a pre-existing neurologic disorder, but evidence regarding the maintenance of this effect during the premotor and motor phases of ET is unknown. Our aim was to determine the influence of education on the risk of dementia in a population-based cohort of ET patients and controls. In a prospective study (Neurological Disorders in Central Spain), participants ≥65 years old were evaluated twice: at baseline (1994-1995) and at follow-up (1997-1998). There were 3 groups: premotor (i.e., participants first diagnosed with incident ET at follow-up), prevalent ET (i.e., participants diagnosed with ET at baseline and at follow-up), and controls. Participants were stratified into lower education (≤primary studies) versus higher education (≥secondary studies) categories. Dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional-hazards models (higher education control group = reference category). Among the participants, 3878 had a mean duration of follow-up of 3.2 years. Eight (16.7%) of 48 lower education premotor ET patients developed incident dementia versus 1 (3.3%) of 30 higher education premotor ET patients, 9 (7.1%) of 126 lower education prevalent ET patients, 7 (8.8%) of 80 higher education prevalent ET patients, and 92 (4.9%) of 1892 lower education controls (P < 0.001). In comparison to the higher education controls, the adjusted hazard ratios for incident dementia were 5.84 (lower education premotor ET, P < 0.001); 1.36 (higher education premotor ET, P = 0.76); 2.13 (lower education prevalent ET, P = 0.04); 2.79 (higher education prevalent ET, P = 0.01); and 1.66 (lower education controls, P = 0.01). Our results suggest that a higher educational attainment may ameliorate the risk

Diagnostic performance of Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference and the Waist-to-Height Ratio for identifying cardiometabolic risk in Scottish pre-adolescents.

PubMed

Buchan, Duncan S; McLellan, Gillian; Donnelly, Samantha; Arthur, Rosie

2017-06-01

Limited studies have examined the diagnostic performance of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) or waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) for identifying cardiometabolic risk (increased clustered glucose, triglycerides, mean arterial pressure and inv-HDL-cholesterol) in pre-adolescent youth. To compare the utility of BMI, WC and WHtR as predictors of cardiometabolic risk (CMR) in Scottish pre-adolescent children. A cross-sectional analysis of 223 Scottish children (55.2% boys, mean age =8.4 years) was undertaken. BMI, WC and WHtR were used as exposure variables within multivariate logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis to examine the utility of these anthropometrical indices in identifying those at cardiometabolic risk. Individuals with an elevated WHtR, WC and BMI were 3.51 (95% CI = 1.71-7.23; p < .001); 2.34 (95% CI = 1.35-4.06; p = .002) and 2.59 (95% CI = 1.42-4.73; p = .002) times more likely to be at cardiometabolic risk, respectively. The areas under the curves [AUC] to identify children with cardiometabolic risk were significant and similar among anthropometric indices (AUC's = 0.60-0.65). When stratified by BMI, both WC and WHtR demonstrated a fair-to-good ability for identifying those at cardiometabolic risk (AUC = 0.75-0.81). Findings suggest that the combination of BMI with either WC or WHtR may provide an added benefit in the assessment of cardiometabolic risk amongst pre-adolescents.

Report: EPA Can Better Reduce Risks From Illegal Pesticides by Effectively Identifying Imports for Inspection and Sampling

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #17-P-0412, September 28, 2017. Low rates of inspections and sampling can create a risk that the EPA may not be identifying and deterring the import of pesticides harmful to people or the environment.

Identifying children at risk for language impairment: screening of communication at 18 months.

PubMed

Bruce, B; Kornfält, R; Radeborg, K; Hansson, K; Nettelbladt, U

2003-09-01

To investigate the possibility of identifying children at risk for language impairment based on a new screening instrument to assess communication and language skills at 18 mo of age. At 18 mo, 58 children were assessed with a screening instrument for communication and language consisting of a professional assessment and a parents' questionnaire. Students of speech and language pathology, well trained in child language assessment, carried out the professional assessment, which was based on observations of play behaviour, interaction and expressive and receptive language skills. Of the 58 children, 43 attended a follow-up assessment of language skills at 54 mo of age. Nine children were considered to be at risk for language impairment at 18 mo and 10 children were evaluated as being at risk at 54 mo. A significant positive correlation was found between the professional evaluations at 18 mo and the language tests at 54 mo. Verbal comprehension and pretend play correlated significantly with the results on the language tests. A professional screening of communication and language at 18 mo of age is worthwhile for predicting problems in language development. The results further show that language comprehension and pretend play rather than expressive skills should be emphasized.

Ability of EDI-2 and EDI-3 to correctly identify patients and subjects at risk for eating disorders.

PubMed

Segura-García, Cristina; Aloi, Matteo; Rania, Marianna; Ciambrone, Paola; Palmieri, Antonella; Pugliese, Valentina; Ruiz Moruno, Antonio José; De Fazio, Pasquale

2015-12-01

The prevention and early recognition of eating disorders (EDs) are important topics in public health. This study aims to compare the efficacy of the Eating Disorder Inventory 2 (EDI-2) with the new version, EDI-3 in recognising patients and identifying subjects at risk for EDs. The EDI-2 and EDI-3 were administered to 92 female patients with ED and 265 females from a population at risk for EDs. Experienced psychiatrists in this field held blind interviews with participants by means of the SCID-I to determine the diagnosis. According to the cut-offs suggested by the authors, the EDI-3 correctly identified nearly all of the ED patients (99%), while the EDI-2 divulged less than half (48%). Both versions of the test showed comparable capability to identify participants at risk for EDs but the EDI-3 seemed slightly more reliable than the EDI-2. The EDI-2 remains a valid and very specific test. However, the new EDI-3 seems to be experimentally superior, because it typifies nearly all patients across the ED span, including those with Binge Eating Disorder and Eating Disorder Not Otherwise Specified. In addition, it appears to be more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

PubMed

Nagano, Yasuharu; Yako-Suketomo, Hiroko; Natsui, Hiroaki

2018-01-01

Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury. A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors. The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%). However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001).

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

PubMed

Hansson, Sven Ove

2018-02-26

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies a meningioma risk locus at 11p15.5.

PubMed

Claus, Elizabeth B; Cornish, Alex J; Broderick, Peter; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Dobbins, Sara E; Holroyd, Amy; Calvocoressi, Lisa; Lu, Lingeng; Hansen, Helen M; Smirnov, Ivan; Walsh, Kyle M; Schramm, Johannes; Hoffmann, Per; Nöthen, Markus M; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Swerdlow, Anthony; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Johansen, Christoffer; Simon, Matthias; Bondy, Melissa; Wrensch, Margaret; Houlston, Richard; Wiemels, Joseph L

2018-05-12

Meningioma are adult brain tumors originating in the meningeal coverings of the brain and spinal cord, with significant heritable basis. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified only a single risk locus for meningioma, at 10p12.31. To identify a susceptibility locus for meningioma, we conducted a meta-analysis of two GWAS, imputed using a merged reference panel of 1,000 Genomes and UK10K data, with validation in two independent sample series totaling 2,138 cases and 12,081 controls. We identified a new susceptibility locus for meningioma at 11p15.5 (rs2686876, odds ratio = 1.44, P = 9.86 × 10-9). A number of genes localize to the region of linkage disequilibrium encompassing rs2686876, including RIC8A, which plays a central role in the development of neural crest-derived structures, such as the meninges. This finding advances our understanding of the genetic basis of meningioma development and provides additional support for a polygenic model of meningioma.

Identifying, Assessing, and Mitigating Risk of Single-Point Inspections on the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.

2004-01-01

In the production of each Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM), over 100,000 inspections are performed. ATK Thiokol Inc. reviewed these inspections to ensure a robust inspection system is maintained. The principal effort within this endeavor was the systematic identification and evaluation of inspections considered to be single-point. Single-point inspections are those accomplished on components, materials, and tooling by only one person, involving no other check. The purpose was to more accurately characterize risk and ultimately address and/or mitigate risk associated with single-point inspections. After the initial review of all inspections and identification/assessment of single-point inspections, review teams applied risk prioritization methodology similar to that used in a Process Failure Modes Effects Analysis to derive a Risk Prioritization Number for each single-point inspection. After the prioritization of risk, all single-point inspection points determined to have significant risk were provided either with risk-mitigating actions or rationale for acceptance. This effort gave confidence to the RSRM program that the correct inspections are being accomplished, that there is appropriate justification for those that remain as single-point inspections, and that risk mitigation was applied to further reduce risk of higher risk single-point inspections. This paper examines the process, results, and lessons learned in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risk associated with single-point inspections accomplished in the production of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Large-scale genotyping identifies 41 new loci associated with breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Michailidou, Kyriaki; Hall, Per; Gonzalez-Neira, Anna; Ghoussaini, Maya; Dennis, Joe; Milne, Roger L; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Bojesen, Stig E; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Hopper, John L; Southey, Melissa C; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Hofman, Albert; Hunter, David J; Chanock, Stephen J; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, François; Tessier, Daniel C; Canisius, Sander; Wessels, Lodewyk F A; Haiman, Christopher A; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Luccarini, Craig; Schoof, Nils; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Stevens, Kristen N; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Rudolph, Anja; Nickels, Stefan; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Johnson, Nichola; Aitken, Zoe; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Broeks, Annegien; Veer, Laura J Van't; van der Schoot, C Ellen; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Menegaux, Florence; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Burwinkel, Barbara; Zamora, M Pilar; Perez, Jose Ignacio Arias; Pita, Guillermo; Alonso, M Rosario; Cox, Angela; Brock, Ian W; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Jager, Agnes; Bui, Quang M; Stone, Jennifer; Dite, Gillian S; Apicella, Carmel; Tsimiklis, Helen; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Brenner, Hermann; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Brauch, Hiltrud; Hamann, Ute; Brüning, Thomas; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Bonanni, Bernardo; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Dörk, Thilo; Kristensen, Vessela N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Edge, Stephen; Fostira, Florentia; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Noh, Dong-Young; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Sueta, Aiko; Wu, Anna H; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Van Den Berg, David; Stram, Daniel O; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Lu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Cai, Hui; Teo, Soo Hwang; Yip, Cheng Har; Phuah, Sze Yee; Cornes, Belinda K; Hartman, Mikael; Miao, Hui; Lim, Wei Yen; Sng, Jen-Hwei; Muir, Kenneth; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Shen, Chen-Yang; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Wu, Pei-Ei; Ding, Shian-Ling; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Gaborieau, Valerie; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James; Blot, William J; Signorello, Lisa B; Cai, Qiuyin; Zheng, Wei; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Shrubsole, Martha; Long, Jirong; Simard, Jacques; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Dunning, Alison M; Benitez, Javier; Easton, Douglas F

2013-04-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Common variants at 27 loci have been identified as associated with susceptibility to breast cancer, and these account for ∼9% of the familial risk of the disease. We report here a meta-analysis of 9 genome-wide association studies, including 10,052 breast cancer cases and 12,575 controls of European ancestry, from which we selected 29,807 SNPs for further genotyping. These SNPs were genotyped in 45,290 cases and 41,880 controls of European ancestry from 41 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). The SNPs were genotyped as part of a collaborative genotyping experiment involving four consortia (Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study, COGS) and used a custom Illumina iSelect genotyping array, iCOGS, comprising more than 200,000 SNPs. We identified SNPs at 41 new breast cancer susceptibility loci at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)). Further analyses suggest that more than 1,000 additional loci are involved in breast cancer susceptibility.

Large-scale genotyping identifies 41 new loci associated with breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Michailidou, Kyriaki; Hall, Per; Gonzalez-Neira, Anna; Ghoussaini, Maya; Dennis, Joe; Milne, Roger L; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Bojesen, Stig E; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Turnbull, Clare; Rahman, Nazneen; Fletcher, Olivia; Peto, Julian; Gibson, Lorna; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Czene, Kamila; Irwanto, Astrid; Liu, Jianjun; Waisfisz, Quinten; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Adank, Muriel; van der Luijt, Rob B; Hein, Rebecca; Dahmen, Norbert; Beckman, Lars; Meindl, Alfons; Schmutzler, Rita K; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Lichtner, Peter; Hopper, John L; Southey, Melissa C; Makalic, Enes; Schmidt, Daniel F; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Hofman, Albert; Hunter, David J; Chanock, Stephen J; Vincent, Daniel; Bacot, François; Tessier, Daniel C; Canisius, Sander; Wessels, Lodewyk F A; Haiman, Christopher A; Shah, Mitul; Luben, Robert; Brown, Judith; Luccarini, Craig; Schoof, Nils; Humphreys, Keith; Li, Jingmei; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Flyger, Henrik; Couch, Fergus J; Wang, Xianshu; Vachon, Celine; Stevens, Kristen N; Lambrechts, Diether; Moisse, Matthieu; Paridaens, Robert; Christiaens, Marie-Rose; Rudolph, Anja; Nickels, Stefan; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Johnson, Nichola; Aitken, Zoe; Aaltonen, Kirsimari; Heikkinen, Tuomas; Broeks, Annegien; Van’t Veer, Laura J; van der Schoot, C Ellen; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Laurent-Puig, Pierre; Menegaux, Florence; Marme, Frederik; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Sohn, Christof; Burwinkel, Barbara; Zamora, M Pilar; Perez, Jose Ignacio Arias; Pita, Guillermo; Alonso, M Rosario; Cox, Angela; Brock, Ian W; Cross, Simon S; Reed, Malcolm W R; Sawyer, Elinor J; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael J; Miller, Nicola; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; Jager, Agnes; Bui, Quang M; Stone, Jennifer; Dite, Gillian S; Apicella, Carmel; Tsimiklis, Helen; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; Fasching, Peter A; Haeberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Brenner, Hermann; Müller, Heiko; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nick; Jones, Michael; Figueroa, Jonine; Lissowska, Jolanta; Brinton, Louise; Goldberg, Mark S; Labrèche, France; Dumont, Martine; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Brauch, Hiltrud; Hamann, Ute; Brüning, Thomas; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Bonanni, Bernardo; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Asperen, Christi J; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Dörk, Thilo; Kristensen, Vessela N; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Slager, Susan; Toland, Amanda E; Edge, Stephen; Fostira, Florentia; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Noh, Dong-Young; Matsuo, Keitaro; Ito, Hidemi; Iwata, Hiroji; Sueta, Aiko; Wu, Anna H; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Van Den Berg, David; Stram, Daniel O; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Lu, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Cai, Hui; Teo, Soo Hwang; Yip, Cheng Har; Phuah, Sze Yee; Cornes, Belinda K; Hartman, Mikael; Miao, Hui; Lim, Wei Yen; Sng, Jen-Hwei; Muir, Kenneth; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Siriwanarangsan, Pornthep; Shen, Chen-Yang; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Wu, Pei-Ei; Ding, Shian-Ling; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Gaborieau, Valerie; Brennan, Paul; McKay, James; Blot, William J; Signorello, Lisa B; Cai, Qiuyin; Zheng, Wei; Deming-Halverson, Sandra; Shrubsole, Martha; Long, Jirong; Simard, Jacques; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Dunning, Alison M; Benitez, Javier; Easton, Douglas F

2013-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. Common variants at 27 loci have been identified as associated with susceptibility to breast cancer, and these account for ~9% of the familial risk of the disease. We report here a meta-analysis of 9 genome-wide association studies, including 10,052 breast cancer cases and 12,575 controls of European ancestry, from which we selected 29,807 SNPs for further genotyping. These SNPs were genotyped in 45,290 cases and 41,880 controls of European ancestry from 41 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). The SNPs were genotyped as part of a collaborative genotyping experiment involving four consortia (Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study, COGS) and used a custom Illumina iSelect genotyping array, iCOGS, comprising more than 200,000 SNPs. We identified SNPs at 41 new breast cancer susceptibility loci at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Further analyses suggest that more than 1,000 additional loci are involved in breast cancer susceptibility. PMID:23535729

Genome-wide association analyses identify 44 risk variants and refine the genetic architecture of major depression.

PubMed

Wray, Naomi R; Ripke, Stephan; Mattheisen, Manuel; Trzaskowski, Maciej; Byrne, Enda M; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Adams, Mark J; Agerbo, Esben; Air, Tracy M; Andlauer, Till M F; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Bækvad-Hansen, Marie; Beekman, Aartjan F T; Bigdeli, Tim B; Binder, Elisabeth B; Blackwood, Douglas R H; Bryois, Julien; Buttenschøn, Henriette N; Bybjerg-Grauholm, Jonas; Cai, Na; Castelao, Enrique; Christensen, Jane Hvarregaard; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Coleman, Jonathan I R; Colodro-Conde, Lucía; Couvy-Duchesne, Baptiste; Craddock, Nick; Crawford, Gregory E; Crowley, Cheynna A; Dashti, Hassan S; Davies, Gail; Deary, Ian J; Degenhardt, Franziska; Derks, Eske M; Direk, Nese; Dolan, Conor V; Dunn, Erin C; Eley, Thalia C; Eriksson, Nicholas; Escott-Price, Valentina; Kiadeh, Farnush Hassan Farhadi; Finucane, Hilary K; Forstner, Andreas J; Frank, Josef; Gaspar, Héléna A; Gill, Michael; Giusti-Rodríguez, Paola; Goes, Fernando S; Gordon, Scott D; Grove, Jakob; Hall, Lynsey S; Hannon, Eilis; Hansen, Christine Søholm; Hansen, Thomas F; Herms, Stefan; Hickie, Ian B; Hoffmann, Per; Homuth, Georg; Horn, Carsten; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Hougaard, David M; Hu, Ming; Hyde, Craig L; Ising, Marcus; Jansen, Rick; Jin, Fulai; Jorgenson, Eric; Knowles, James A; Kohane, Isaac S; Kraft, Julia; Kretzschmar, Warren W; Krogh, Jesper; Kutalik, Zoltán; Lane, Jacqueline M; Li, Yihan; Li, Yun; Lind, Penelope A; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Lu, Leina; MacIntyre, Donald J; MacKinnon, Dean F; Maier, Robert M; Maier, Wolfgang; Marchini, Jonathan; Mbarek, Hamdi; McGrath, Patrick; McGuffin, Peter; Medland, Sarah E; Mehta, Divya; Middeldorp, Christel M; Mihailov, Evelin; Milaneschi, Yuri; Milani, Lili; Mill, Jonathan; Mondimore, Francis M; Montgomery, Grant W; Mostafavi, Sara; Mullins, Niamh; Nauck, Matthias; Ng, Bernard; Nivard, Michel G; Nyholt, Dale R; O'Reilly, Paul F; Oskarsson, Hogni; Owen, Michael J; Painter, Jodie N; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Pedersen, Marianne Giørtz; Peterson, Roseann E; Pettersson, Erik; Peyrot, Wouter J; Pistis, Giorgio; Posthuma, Danielle; Purcell, Shaun M; Quiroz, Jorge A; Qvist, Per; Rice, John P; Riley, Brien P; Rivera, Margarita; Saeed Mirza, Saira; Saxena, Richa; Schoevers, Robert; Schulte, Eva C; Shen, Ling; Shi, Jianxin; Shyn, Stanley I; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Sinnamon, Grant B C; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Daniel J; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stockmeier, Craig A; Streit, Fabian; Strohmaier, Jana; Tansey, Katherine E; Teismann, Henning; Teumer, Alexander; Thompson, Wesley; Thomson, Pippa A; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Tian, Chao; Traylor, Matthew; Treutlein, Jens; Trubetskoy, Vassily; Uitterlinden, André G; Umbricht, Daniel; Van der Auwera, Sandra; van Hemert, Albert M; Viktorin, Alexander; Visscher, Peter M; Wang, Yunpeng; Webb, Bradley T; Weinsheimer, Shantel Marie; Wellmann, Jürgen; Willemsen, Gonneke; Witt, Stephanie H; Wu, Yang; Xi, Hualin S; Yang, Jian; Zhang, Futao; Arolt, Volker; Baune, Bernhard T; Berger, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Cichon, Sven; Dannlowski, Udo; de Geus, E C J; DePaulo, J Raymond; Domenici, Enrico; Domschke, Katharina; Esko, Tõnu; Grabe, Hans J; Hamilton, Steven P; Hayward, Caroline; Heath, Andrew C; Hinds, David A; Kendler, Kenneth S; Kloiber, Stefan; Lewis, Glyn; Li, Qingqin S; Lucae, Susanne; Madden, Pamela F A; Magnusson, Patrik K; Martin, Nicholas G; McIntosh, Andrew M; Metspalu, Andres; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nordentoft, Merete; Nöthen, Markus M; O'Donovan, Michael C; Paciga, Sara A; Pedersen, Nancy L; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Perlis, Roy H; Porteous, David J; Potash, James B; Preisig, Martin; Rietschel, Marcella; Schaefer, Catherine; Schulze, Thomas G; Smoller, Jordan W; Stefansson, Kari; Tiemeier, Henning; Uher, Rudolf; Völzke, Henry; Weissman, Myrna M; Werge, Thomas; Winslow, Ashley R; Lewis, Cathryn M; Levinson, Douglas F; Breen, Gerome; Børglum, Anders D; Sullivan, Patrick F

2018-05-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common illness accompanied by considerable morbidity, mortality, costs, and heightened risk of suicide. We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis based in 135,458 cases and 344,901 controls and identified 44 independent and significant loci. The genetic findings were associated with clinical features of major depression and implicated brain regions exhibiting anatomical differences in cases. Targets of antidepressant medications and genes involved in gene splicing were enriched for smaller association signal. We found important relationships of genetic risk for major depression with educational attainment, body mass, and schizophrenia: lower educational attainment and higher body mass were putatively causal, whereas major depression and schizophrenia reflected a partly shared biological etiology. All humans carry lesser or greater numbers of genetic risk factors for major depression. These findings help refine the basis of major depression and imply that a continuous measure of risk underlies the clinical phenotype.

Identifying emotional and behavioral risk among gifted and nongifted children: A multi-gate, multi-informant approach.

PubMed

Eklund, Katie; Tanner, Nick; Stoll, Katie; Anway, Leslie

2015-06-01

The purpose of the current investigation was to compare 1,206 gifted and nongifted elementary students on the identification of emotional and behavioral risk (EBR) as rated by teachers and parents using a multigate, multi-informant approach to assessment. The Parent and Teacher Behavioral Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2) and the Behavioral and Emotional Screening System were used to assess behavioral functioning as rated by teachers and parents. There were significant differences between the number of gifted and nongifted children demonstrating emotional and behavioral risk, with parents and teachers identifying a higher number of boys and nongifted children as at risk. Among children demonstrating EBR, gifted children demonstrated elevated internalizing behaviors as rated by parents. Gifted students demonstrated higher academic performance regardless of risk level, suggesting higher cognitive abilities may be one of several protective factors that serve to attenuate the development of other social, emotional, or behavioral concerns. Implications for practice and future research needs are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Quantitative Risk - Phase 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-03

SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11 . SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION... 11 Connecting technical risk and types of complexity...24 Figure 11 . Complexity evolution throughout the systems acquisition lifecycle ......................................... 25

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

Identifying Risk Factors for Drug Use in an Iranian Treatment Sample: A Prediction Approach Using Decision Trees.

PubMed

Amirabadizadeh, Alireza; Nezami, Hossein; Vaughn, Michael G; Nakhaee, Samaneh; Mehrpour, Omid

2018-05-12

Substance abuse exacts considerable social and health care burdens throughout the world. The aim of this study was to create a prediction model to better identify risk factors for drug use. A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in South Khorasan Province, Iran. Of the total of 678 eligible subjects, 70% (n: 474) were randomly selected to provide a training set for constructing decision tree and multiple logistic regression (MLR) models. The remaining 30% (n: 204) were employed in a holdout sample to test the performance of the decision tree and MLR models. Predictive performance of different models was analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the testing set. Independent variables were selected from demographic characteristics and history of drug use. For the decision tree model, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying people at risk for drug abuse were 66% and 75%, respectively, while the MLR model was somewhat less effective at 60% and 73%. Key independent variables in the analyses included first substance experience, age at first drug use, age, place of residence, history of cigarette use, and occupational and marital status. While study findings are exploratory and lack generalizability they do suggest that the decision tree model holds promise as an effective classification approach for identifying risk factors for drug use. Convergent with prior research in Western contexts is that age of drug use initiation was a critical factor predicting a substance use disorder.

GWAS-identified schizophrenia risk SNPs at TSPAN18 are highly diverged between Europeans and East Asians.

PubMed

Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Su, Bing

2016-12-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified multiple schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants for samples of European and East Asian descent, but most of the identified susceptibility variants are population-specific to either Europeans or East Asians. This strong genetic heterogeneity suggests that differential population histories may play a role in SCZ susceptibility. Here, we explored this possibility by examining the allele frequency divergence of 136 previously reported genome-wide SCZ risk SNPs between European and East Asian populations. Our results showed that two SNPs (rs11038167 and rs11038172) at TSPAN18, reported as genome-wide significant SCZ risk variants in Han Chinese, were entirely monomorphic in Europeans, indicating a deep between-population divergence at this gene locus. To explore the evolutionary history of TSPAN18 in East Asians, we conducted population genetic analyses including multiple neutrality tests, the haplotype-based iHS and EHH tests, as well as haplotype bifurcation map and network constructions. We found that the protective allele of rs11038172 (G allele) had a long extended haplotype with much slower decay compared to the A allele. The star-like shape of the G-allele-carrying haplotypes indicates a recent enrichment in East Asians. Together, the evidences suggest that the protective allele of rs11038172 has experienced recent Darwinian positive selection in East Asians. These findings provide new insights that may help explain the strong genetic heterogeneity in SCZ risk and previous inconsistent association results for SCZ among both Europeans and East Asians. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Risk Variants for Lichen Planus in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection.

PubMed

Nagao, Yumiko; Nishida, Nao; Toyo-Oka, Licht; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Amoroso, Antonio; Carrozzo, Marco; Sata, Michio; Mizokami, Masashi; Tokunaga, Katsushi; Tanaka, Yasuhito

2017-06-01

There is a close relationship between hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and lichen planus, a chronic inflammatory mucocutaneous disease. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic variants associated with HCV-related lichen planus. We conducted a GWAS of 261 patients with HCV infection treated at a tertiary medical center in Japan from October 2007 through January 2013; a total of 71 had lichen planus and 190 had normal oral mucosa. We validated our findings in a GWAS of 38 patients with HCV-associated lichen planus and 7 HCV-infected patients with normal oral mucosa treated at a medical center in Italy. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NRP2 (rs884000) and IGFBP4 (rs538399) were associated with risk of HCV-associated lichen planus (P < 1 × 10 -4 ). We also found an association between a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the HLA-DR/DQ genes (rs9461799) and susceptibility to HCV-associated lichen planus. The odds ratios for the minor alleles of rs884000, rs538399, and rs9461799 were 3.25 (95% confidence interval, 1.95-5.41), 0.40 (95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.63), and 2.15 (95% confidence interval, 1.41-3.28), respectively. In a GWAS of Japanese patients with HCV infection, we replicated associations between previously reported polymorphisms in HLA class II genes and risk for lichen planus. We also identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NRP2 and IGFBP4 loci that increase and reduce risk of lichen planus, respectively. These genetic variants might be used to identify patients with HCV infection who are at risk for lichen planus. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploiting Cloud Radar Doppler Spectra of Mixed-Phase Clouds during ACCEPT Field Experiment to Identify Microphysical Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalesse, H.; Myagkov, A.; Seifert, P.; Buehl, J.

2015-12-01

Cloud radar Doppler spectra offer much information about cloud processes. By analyzing millimeter radar Doppler spectra from cloud-top to -base in mixed-phase clouds in which super-cooled liquid-layers are present we try to tell the microphysical evolution story of particles that are present by disentangling the contributions of the solid and liquid particles to the total radar returns. Instead of considering vertical profiles, dynamical effects are taken into account by following the particle population evolution along slanted paths which are caused by horizontal advection of the cloud. The goal is to identify regions in which different microphysical processes such as new particle formation (nucleation), water vapor deposition, aggregation, riming, or sublimation occurr. Cloud radar measurements are supplemented by Doppler lidar and Raman lidar observations as well as observations with MWR, wind profiler, and radio sondes. The presence of super-cooled liquid layers is identified by positive liquid water paths in MWR measurements, the vertical location of liquid layers (in non-raining systems and below lidar extinction) is derived from regions of high-backscatter and low depolarization in Raman lidar observations. In collocated cloud radar measurements, we try to identify cloud phase in the cloud radar Doppler spectrum via location of the Doppler peak(s), the existence of multi-modalities or the spectral skewness. Additionally, within the super-cooled liquid layers, the radar-identified liquid droplets are used as air motion tracer to correct the radar Doppler spectrum for vertical air motion w. These radar-derived estimates of w are validated by independent estimates of w from collocated Doppler lidar measurements. A 35 GHz vertically pointing cloud Doppler radar (METEK MIRA-35) in linear depolarization (LDR) mode is used. Data is from the deployment of the Leipzig Aerosol and Cloud Remote Observations System (LACROS) during the Analysis of the Composition of

A Radio-genomics Approach for Identifying High Risk Estrogen Receptor-positive Breast Cancers on DCE-MRI: Preliminary Results in Predicting OncotypeDX Risk Scores

PubMed Central

Wan, Tao; Bloch, B. Nicolas; Plecha, Donna; Thompson, CheryI L.; Gilmore, Hannah; Jaffe, Carl; Harris, Lyndsay; Madabhushi, Anant

2016-01-01

To identify computer extracted imaging features for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers on dynamic contrast en-hanced (DCE)-MRI that are correlated with the low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. We collected 96 ER-positivebreast lesions with low (<18, N = 55) and high (>30, N = 41) OncotypeDX recurrence scores. Each lesion was quantitatively charac-terize via 6 shape features, 3 pharmacokinetics, 4 enhancement kinetics, 4 intensity kinetics, 148 textural kinetics, 5 dynamic histogram of oriented gradient (DHoG), and 6 dynamic local binary pattern (DLBP) features. The extracted features were evaluated by a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier in terms of their ability to distinguish low and high OncotypeDX risk categories. Classification performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (Az). The DHoG and DLBP achieved Az values of 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. The 6 top features identified via feature selection were subsequently combined with the LDA classifier to yield an Az of 0.87. The correlation analysis showed that DHoG (ρ = 0.85, P < 0.001) and DLBP (ρ = 0.83, P < 0.01) were significantly associated with the low and high risk classifications from the OncotypeDX assay. Our results indicated that computer extracted texture features of DCE-MRI were highly correlated with the high and low OncotypeDX risk categories for ER-positive cancers. PMID:26887643

Identifying women with dense breasts at high risk for interval cancer: a cohort study.