Disrupted latent inhibition in individuals at ultra high-risk for developing psychosis.

PubMed

Kraus, Michael; Rapisarda, Attilio; Lam, Max; Thong, Jamie Y J; Lee, Jimmy; Subramaniam, Mythily; Collinson, Simon L; Chong, Siow Ann; Keefe, Richard S E

2016-12-01

The addition of off-the-shelf cognitive measures to established prodromal criteria has resulted in limited improvement in the prediction of conversion to psychosis. Tests that assess cognitive processes central to schizophrenia might better identify those at highest risk. The latent inhibition paradigm assesses a subject's tendency to ignore irrelevant stimuli, a process integral to healthy perceptual and cognitive function that has been hypothesized to be a key deficit underlying the development of schizophrenia. In this study, 142 young people at ultra high-risk for developing psychosis and 105 controls were tested on a within-subject latent inhibition paradigm. Additionally, we later inquired about the strategy that each subject employed to complete the test, and further investigated the relationship between reported strategy and the extent of latent inhibition exhibited. Unlike controls, ultra high-risk subjects did not demonstrate a significant latent inhibition effect. This difference between groups became greater when controlling for strategy. The lack of latent inhibition effect in our ultra high-risk sample suggests that individuals at ultra high-risk for psychosis are impaired in their allocation of attentional resources based on past predictive value of repeated stimuli. This fundamental deficit in the allocation of attention may contribute to the broader array of cognitive impairments and clinical symptoms displayed by individuals at ultra high-risk for psychosis.

[Predicting individual risk of high healthcare cost to identify complex chronic patients].

PubMed

Coderch, Jordi; Sánchez-Pérez, Inma; Ibern, Pere; Carreras, Marc; Pérez-Berruezo, Xavier; Inoriza, José M

2014-01-01

To develop a predictive model for the risk of high consumption of healthcare resources, and assess the ability of the model to identify complex chronic patients. A cross-sectional study was performed within a healthcare management organization by using individual data from 2 consecutive years (88,795 people). The dependent variable consisted of healthcare costs above the 95th percentile (P95), including all services provided by the organization and pharmaceutical consumption outside of the institution. The predictive variables were age, sex, morbidity-based on clinical risk groups (CRG)-and selected data from previous utilization (use of hospitalization, use of high-cost drugs in ambulatory care, pharmaceutical expenditure). A univariate descriptive analysis was performed. We constructed a logistic regression model with a 95% confidence level and analyzed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Individuals incurring costs >P95 accumulated 44% of total healthcare costs and were concentrated in ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) categories related to multiple chronic diseases. All variables were statistically significant except for sex. The model had a sensitivity of 48.4% (CI: 46.9%-49.8%), specificity of 97.2% (CI: 97.0%-97.3%), PPV of 46.5% (CI: 45.0%-47.9%), and an AUC of 0.897 (CI: 0.892 to 0.902). High consumption of healthcare resources is associated with complex chronic morbidity. A model based on age, morbidity, and prior utilization is able to predict high-cost risk and identify a target population requiring proactive care. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Identifying Children At Risk for Being Bullies in the US

PubMed Central

Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

2012-01-01

Objective To identify risk factors associated with the highest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among US children. Methods Using the 2001–2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally-representative survey of US children in 6th–10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (≥ once or twice), moderate (≥ two-three times/month), and frequent (≥ weekly) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. Results The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5–6 days weekly were at highest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, drink > once daily, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at highest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Conclusions Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at highest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the highest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at highest risks for bullying and in targeting interventions. PMID:22989731

A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

PubMed

Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p < .001). In the presence of three covariates (gender, race, and age), those classified as being at-risk by the index were 1.8 times more likely than those not classified as such to test positive for an STI (p < .001). Among individuals at risk for STIs, a three-item index predicted testing positive for one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

Anomalies in T Cell Function Are Associated With Individuals at Risk of Mycobacterium abscessus Complex Infection

PubMed Central

Lutzky, Viviana P.; Ratnatunga, Champa N.; Smith, Daniel J.; Kupz, Andreas; Doolan, Denise L.; Reid, David W.; Thomson, Rachel M.; Bell, Scott C.; Miles, John J.

2018-01-01

The increasing global incidence and prevalence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) infection is of growing concern. New evidence of person-to-person transmission of multidrug-resistant NTM adds to the global concern. The reason why certain individuals are at risk of NTM infections is unknown. Using high definition flow cytometry, we studied the immune profiles of two groups that are at risk of Mycobacterium abscessus complex infection and matched controls. The first group was cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and the second group was elderly individuals. CF individuals with active M. abscessus complex infection or a history of M. abscessus complex infection exhibited a unique surface T cell phenotype with a marked global deficiency in TNFα production during mitogen stimulation. Importantly, immune-based signatures were identified that appeared to predict at baseline the subset of CF individuals who were at risk of M. abscessus complex infection. In contrast, elderly individuals with M. abscessus complex infection exhibited a separate T cell phenotype underlined by the presence of exhaustion markers and dysregulation in type 1 cytokine release during mitogen stimulation. Collectively, these data suggest an association between T cell signatures and individuals at risk of M. abscessus complex infection, however, validation of these immune anomalies as robust biomarkers will require analysis on larger patient cohorts. PMID:29942313

Anomalies in T Cell Function Are Associated With Individuals at Risk of Mycobacterium abscessus Complex Infection.

PubMed

Lutzky, Viviana P; Ratnatunga, Champa N; Smith, Daniel J; Kupz, Andreas; Doolan, Denise L; Reid, David W; Thomson, Rachel M; Bell, Scott C; Miles, John J

2018-01-01

The increasing global incidence and prevalence of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) infection is of growing concern. New evidence of person-to-person transmission of multidrug-resistant NTM adds to the global concern. The reason why certain individuals are at risk of NTM infections is unknown. Using high definition flow cytometry, we studied the immune profiles of two groups that are at risk of Mycobacterium abscessus complex infection and matched controls. The first group was cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and the second group was elderly individuals. CF individuals with active M. abscessus complex infection or a history of M. abscessus complex infection exhibited a unique surface T cell phenotype with a marked global deficiency in TNFα production during mitogen stimulation. Importantly, immune-based signatures were identified that appeared to predict at baseline the subset of CF individuals who were at risk of M. abscessus complex infection. In contrast, elderly individuals with M. abscessus complex infection exhibited a separate T cell phenotype underlined by the presence of exhaustion markers and dysregulation in type 1 cytokine release during mitogen stimulation. Collectively, these data suggest an association between T cell signatures and individuals at risk of M. abscessus complex infection, however, validation of these immune anomalies as robust biomarkers will require analysis on larger patient cohorts.

NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene

MedlinePlus

... News From NIH NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene Past Issues / Summer 2006 Table of Contents For ... and Alcoholism (NIAAA) have identified a previously unknown gene variant that doubles an individual's risk for obsessive- ...

Pilot study on use of home telephoning to identify and recruit high-risk individuals for lung cancer screening.

PubMed

Veronesi, Giulia; Colombo, Paolo; Novellis, Pierluigi; Crepaldi, Alessandro; Lutman, Romano Fabio; Dieci, Elisa; Profili, Manuel; Siracusano, Licia; Alloisio, Marco

2017-03-01

Widespread lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography is urgently needed in Europe to identify lung cancers early and reduce lung cancer deaths. The most effective method of identifying high-risk individuals and recruiting them for screening has not been determined. In the present pilot study we investigated direct telephoning to families as a way of identifying high risk individuals and recruiting them to a screening/smoking cessation program, that avoided the selection bias of voluntary screening. Families in the province of Milan, Italy, were contacted by telephone at their homes and asked about family members over 50 years who were heavy smokers (30 or more pack-years). Persons meeting these criteria were contacted and asked to participate in the program. Those who agreed were given an appointment to undergo screening and receive smoking cessation counseling. Among the 1000 contacted families, involving 2300 persons, 44 (1.9%) were eligible for LDCT screening, and 12 (27%) of these participated in the program. The cost of this recruitment strategy pilot study was around 150 euro per screened subject. We obtained useful information on the proportion of the general population eligible for lung cancer screening and the proportion of those who responded. However the cost of home telephone calling is probably too high to be practicable as a method of recruiting high risk persons for screening. Alternative recruitment methods, possibly involving family physicians practitioners, need to be investigated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying Children in Middle Childhood Who Are at Risk for Reading Problems.

PubMed

Speece, Deborah L; Ritchey, Kristen D; Silverman, Rebecca; Schatschneider, Christopher; Walker, Caroline Y; Andrusik, Katryna N

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate a universal screening battery for reading that is appropriate for older elementary students in a response to intervention model. Multiple measures of reading and reading correlates were administered to 230 fourth-grade children. Teachers rated children's reading skills, academic competence, and attention. Children were classified as not-at-risk or at-risk readers based on a three-factor model reflecting reading comprehension, word recognition/decoding, and word fluency. Predictors of reading status included group-administered tests of reading comprehension, silent word reading fluency, and teacher ratings of reading problems. Inclusion of individually administered tests and growth estimates did not add substantial variance. The receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis yielded an area under the curve index of 0.90, suggesting this model may both accurately and efficiently screen older elementary students with reading problems.

Identifying children at risk for being bullies in the United States.

PubMed

Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

2012-01-01

To identify risk factors associated with the greatest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among U.S. children. Using the 2001-2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally representative survey of U.S. children in 6th-10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (once or twice or more), moderate (two to three times/month or more), and frequent (weekly or more) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5 to 6 days/week were at greatest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, have more than one alcoholic drink per day, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at greatest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at greatest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the greatest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at the greatest risk for bullying and in targeting interventions. Copyright © 2012 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying nursing home residents at risk for falling.

PubMed

Kiely, D K; Kiel, D P; Burrows, A B; Lipsitz, L A

1998-05-01

To develop a fall risk model that can be used to identify prospectively nursing home residents at risk for falling. The secondary objective was to determine whether the nursing home environment independently influenced the development of falls. A prospective study involving 1 year of follow-up. Two hundred seventy-two nursing homes in the state of Washington. A total of 18,855 residents who had a baseline assessment in 1991 and a follow-up assessment within the subsequent year. Baseline Minimum Data Set items that could be potential risk factors for falling were considered as independent variables. The dependent variable was whether the resident fell as reported at the follow-up assessment. We estimated the extrinsic risk attributable to particular nursing home environments by calculating the annual fall rate in each nursing home and grouping them into tertiles of fall risk according to these rates. Factors associated independently with falling were fall history, wandering behavior, use of a cane or walker, deterioration of activities of daily living performance, age greater than 87 years, unsteady gait, transfer independence, wheelchair independence, and male gender. Nursing home residents with a fall history were more than three times as likely to fall during the follow-up period than residents without a fall history. Residents in homes with the highest tertile of fall rates were more than twice as likely to fall compared with residents of homes in the lowest tertile, independent of resident-specific risk factors. Fall history was identified as the strongest risk factor associated with subsequent falls and accounted for the vast majority of the predictive strength of the model. We recommend that fall history be used as an initial screener for determining eligibility for fall intervention efforts. Studies are needed to determine the facility characteristics that contribute to fall risk, independent of resident-specific risk factors.

Individual-Level Risk Factors of Incarcerated Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pyle, Nicole; Flower, Andrea; Fall, Anna Mari; Williams, Jacob

2016-01-01

This systematic review sought to understand the individual characteristics of incarcerated youth within the major risk factor domains identified by the U.S. Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP). A comprehensive search of the literature from 1979 to 2013 identified 85 articles of individual-level risk characteristics that…

Ethical implications for clinical practice and future research in "at risk" individuals.

PubMed

Singh, Fiza; Mirzakhanian, Heline; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; de la Fuente-Sandoval, Camilo; Cadenhead, Kristin S

2012-01-01

The last 15 years have witnessed a shift in schizophrenia research with increasing interest in earlier stages of illness with the hope of early intervention and ultimately prevention of psychotic illness. Large-scale longitudinal studies have identified clinical and biological risk factors associated with increased risk of psychotic conversion, which together with symptomatic and demographic risk factors may improve the power of prediction algorithms for psychotic transition. Despite these advances, 45-70% of at risk subjects in most samples do not convert to frank psychosis, but continue to function well below their age matched counterparts. The issue is of utmost importance in light of the upcoming DSM-V and the possible inclusion of the attenuated psychotic symptoms syndrome (APSS) diagnosis, with clinical and ethical implications. Clinical considerations include feasibility of reliably diagnosing the at risk state in non-academic medical centers, variable psychotic conversion rates, a non-uniform definition of conversion and extensive debate about treatment for individuals with an ill-defined outcome. On the ethical side, diagnosing APSS could lead to unnecessary prescribing of antipsychotics with long-term deleterious consequences, slow research by providing a false sense of comfort in the diagnosis, and have psychosocial implications for those who receive a diagnosis. Thus it may be prudent to engage at risk populations early and to use broad-spectrum treatments with low risk benefit ratios to relieve functional impairments, while simultaneously studying all subsets of the at risk population.

Early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk for developing psychoses.

PubMed

Hagenmuller, Florence; Heekeren, Karsten; Theodoridou, Anastasia; Walitza, Susanne; Haker, Helene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram

2014-01-01

Human cortical somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) allow an accurate investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. SEPs reveal a burst of superimposed early (N20) high-frequency oscillations around 600 Hz. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia. This study addresses the question whether those alterations are also observable in populations at risk for developing schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. To our knowledge to date, this is the first study investigating SEPs in a population at risk for developing psychoses. Median nerve SEPs were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n = 25), individuals with high-risk status (n = 59) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n = 73) and a gender and age-matched control group (n = 45). Strengths and latencies of low- and high-frequency components as estimated by dipole source analysis were compared between groups. Low- and high-frequency source activity was reduced in both groups at risk for schizophrenia, in comparison to the group at risk for bipolar disorders. HFO amplitudes were also significant reduced in subjects with high-risk status for schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. These differences were accentuated among cannabis non-users. Reduced N20 source strengths were related to higher positive symptom load. These results suggest that the risk for schizophrenia, in contrast to bipolar disorders, may involve an impairment of early cerebral somatosensory processing. Neurophysiologic alterations in schizophrenia precede the onset of initial psychotic episode and may serve as indicator of vulnerability for developing schizophrenia.

Early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk for developing psychoses

PubMed Central

Hagenmuller, Florence; Heekeren, Karsten; Theodoridou, Anastasia; Walitza, Susanne; Haker, Helene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram

2014-01-01

Human cortical somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) allow an accurate investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. SEPs reveal a burst of superimposed early (N20) high-frequency oscillations around 600 Hz. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia. This study addresses the question whether those alterations are also observable in populations at risk for developing schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. To our knowledge to date, this is the first study investigating SEPs in a population at risk for developing psychoses. Median nerve SEPs were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n = 25), individuals with high-risk status (n = 59) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n = 73) and a gender and age-matched control group (n = 45). Strengths and latencies of low- and high-frequency components as estimated by dipole source analysis were compared between groups. Low- and high-frequency source activity was reduced in both groups at risk for schizophrenia, in comparison to the group at risk for bipolar disorders. HFO amplitudes were also significant reduced in subjects with high-risk status for schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. These differences were accentuated among cannabis non-users. Reduced N20 source strengths were related to higher positive symptom load. These results suggest that the risk for schizophrenia, in contrast to bipolar disorders, may involve an impairment of early cerebral somatosensory processing. Neurophysiologic alterations in schizophrenia precede the onset of initial psychotic episode and may serve as indicator of vulnerability for developing schizophrenia. PMID:25309363

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Incidence of neonatal hypoglycemia in babies identified as at risk.

PubMed

Harris, Deborah L; Weston, Philip J; Harding, Jane E

2012-11-01

Routine blood glucose screening is recommended for babies at risk of neonatal hypoglycemia. However, the incidence of hypoglycemia in those screened is not well described. We sought to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia in babies identified as being at risk, and also to determine differences in incidence between at risk groups. Infants (n = 514) were recruited who were born in a tertiary hospital, ≥35 weeks gestation and identified as at risk of hypoglycemia (small, large, infant of a diabetic, late-preterm, and other). Blood glucose screening used a standard protocol and a glucose oxidase method of glucose measurement in the first 48 hours after birth. One-half of the babies (260/514, 51%) became hypoglycemic (<2.6 mM), 97 (19%) had severe hypoglycemia (≤2.0 mM), and 98 (19%) had more than 1 episode. The mean duration of an episode was 1.4 hours. Most episodes (315/390, 81%) occurred in the first 24 hours. The median number of blood glucose measurements for each baby was 9 (range 1-22). The incidence and timing of hypoglycemia was similar in all at risk groups, but babies with a total of 3 risk factors were more likely to have severe hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is common amongst babies recommended for routine blood glucose screening. We found no evidence that screening protocols should differ in different at risk groups, but multiple risk factors may increase severity. The significance of these hypoglycemic episodes for long-term outcome remains undetermined. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Neuroanatomical Pattern Classification to Identify Subjects in At-Risk Mental States of Psychosis and Predict Disease Transition

PubMed Central

Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Meisenzahl, Eva M.; Davatzikos, Christos; Bottlender, Ronald; Frodl, Thomas; Scheuerecker, Johanna; Schmitt, Gisela; Zetzsche, Thomas; Decker, Petra; Reiser, Maximilian; Möller, Hans-Jürgen; Gaser, Christian

2014-01-01

Context Identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis has relied on prodromal symptomatology. Recently, machine learning algorithms have been successfully used for magnetic resonance imaging–based diagnostic classification of neuropsychiatric patient populations. Objective To determine whether multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification facilitates identification of individuals in different at-risk mental states (ARMS) of psychosis and enables the prediction of disease transition at the individual level. Design Multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification was performed on the structural magnetic resonance imaging data of individuals in early or late ARMS vs healthy controls (HCs). The predictive power of the method was then evaluated by categorizing the baseline imaging data of individuals with transition to psychosis vs those without transition vs HCs after 4 years of clinical follow-up. Classification generalizability was estimated by cross-validation and by categorizing an independent cohort of 45 new HCs. Setting Departments of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany. Participants The first classification analysis included 20 early and 25 late at-risk individuals and 25 matched HCs. The second analysis consisted of 15 individuals with transition, 18 without transition, and 17 matched HCs. Main Outcome Measures Specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of classification. Results The 3-group, cross-validated classification accuracies of the first analysis were 86% (HCs vs the rest), 91% (early at-risk individuals vs the rest), and 86% (late at-risk individuals vs the rest). The accuracies in the second analysis were 90% (HCs vs the rest), 88% (individuals with transition vs the rest), and 86% (individuals without transition vs the rest). Independent HCs were correctly classified in 96% (first analysis) and 93% (second analysis) of cases. Conclusions Different ARMSs and their clinical outcomes

Identifying individuals for primary cardiovascular disease prevention in UK general practice: priorities and resource implications

PubMed Central

Holt, Tim A; Thorogood, Margaret; Griffiths, Frances; Munday, Stephen; Stables, David

2008-01-01

Targeted cardiovascular disease prevention relies on risk-factor information held in primary care records. A risk algorithm, the ‘e-Nudge’, was applied to data from a population of ≥50-year-olds in 19 West Midlands practices, to identify those individuals at risk of cardiovascular disease. Altogether, 5.9% were identified aged 50–74 years at ≥20% 10-year risk based on existing data, and a further 26.4% were potentially at risk but had missing risk-factor information; 9.2% of patients aged over 50 years with established cardiovascular disease had at least one modifiable risk factor outside the audit target of the Quality and Outcomes Framework. Implications for resource allocation are discussed. PMID:18611316

Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

PubMed

Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

2010-08-01

Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

A comparison of five surveys that identify individuals at risk for airflow obstruction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Sogbetun, Folarin; Eschenbacher, William L; Welge, Jeffrey A; Panos, Ralph J

2016-11-01

The predictive characteristics of different screening surveys for the recognition of individuals at risk for airflow obstruction (AFO) have not been evaluated simultaneously in the same population. To compare five AFO/COPD screening questionnaires. 383 individuals completed the Veterans Airflow Obstruction Screening Questionnaire, Personal Level Screener for COPD (VAFOSQ), the 11-Q COPD Screening Questionnaire (11-Q), the COPD Population Screener (COPD-PS) and the Lung Function Questionnaire (LFQ) and performed spirometry. AFO was defined as forced expiratory volume in one second divided by the forced vital capacity (FEV 1 /FVC) < 0.7, fixed ratio (FR) or FEV 1 /FVC < lower limit of normal (LLN). The predictive characteristics of the five questionnaires were calculated and non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves estimated by logistic regression. 376 participants completed at least two of the questionnaires and performed technically acceptable spirometry. AFO was present in 102 (27.1%) and 150 (39.9%) based on LLN and FR, respectively. The number of individuals positively selected by the VAFOSQ was 227, PLS 128, 11-Q 236, COPD-PS 217, and LFQ 328. The area under the ROC curves for the questionnaires was between 0.60 and 0.66 (LLN) and 0.58 and 0.66 (FR). Although these screening surveys have acceptable and similar predictive ability for the identification of AFO, their published thresholds lead to substantially different classification rates. The choice of an appropriate threshold for the identification of individuals with possible AFO/COPD should consider the underlying prevalence of AFO/COPD in the target population and the relative costs of misclassifying affected and unaffected cases. None. Veterans Health Administration. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

180. Predictors of Being ‘Most Impacted’ by Psychosis in Self-Identity Among Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Yang, Lawrence; McFarlane, William; Seidman, Larry J.; Corcoran, Cheryl; Link, Bruce; Bryang, Caitlin; Kline, Emily; Cloutier, Anna; Woodberry, Kristen; Kennedy, Leda

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: While the clinical high risk state for psychosis syndrome (CHR) offers substantial benefits, being identified as CHR may also elicit stigma. Specifically, the comparative impacts upon youths’ self-concept of being “told” by others, versus initial self-identification of being at-risk (i.e., what CHR youth themselves “think”) remains unknown. Methods: Stigma assessments were conducted with 100 CHR individuals in an NIH-funded study at Columbia Medical Center, Harvard Medical Center, and Maine Medical Center from 2011 to present. Individuals were assessed whether they had been “told” by health professionals or school officials outside of the specialized CHR clinic that they were at risk and whether they self-identified or themselves “thought” they were at risk. Logistic regression models were used to assess these 2 variables’ effects upon CHR youth being “most impacted” by a psychotic disorder. Results: When examining each variable singly, being told was associated with a 4.67 increased likelihood of being most impacted by psychosis risk (P < .05). Likewise, thinking one was at risk for psychosis when examined alone was associated with a 3.87 increased likelihood of being most impacted by psychosis-risk (P < .05). When entering both variables as predictors, being told remained associated with a 3.61 greater likelihood of being most impacted by psychosis-risk (P < .05). In this model, thinking one was at risk for psychosis was no longer a significant predictor. These results were consistent even after controlling for sociodemographics, clinical variables, and site differences. Conclusion: When both told and think were considered, only being told that one was CHR remained associated with over a 3-fold greater likelihood of being most impacted by psychosis risk. This highlights the importance of “labeling by others,” including by mental health professionals and school officials who are not part of specialized CHR services

Can subsyndromal manifestations of major depression be identified in children at risk?

PubMed

Uchida, M; Fitzgerald, M; Lin, K; Carrellas, N; Woodworth, H; Biederman, J

2017-02-01

Children of parents with major depression are at significantly increased risk for developing major depression themselves; however, not all children at genetic risk will develop major depressive disorder (MDD). We investigated the utility of subsyndromal scores on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Anxiety/Depression scale in identifying children at the highest risk for pediatric MDD from among the pool of children of parents with MDD or bipolar disorder. The sample was derived from two previously conducted longitudinal case-control family studies of psychiatrically and pediatrically referred youth and their families. For this study, probands were stratified based on the presence or absence of a parental mood disorder. Subsyndromal scores on the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale significantly separated the children at high risk for pediatric MDD from those at low risk in a variety of functional areas, including social and academic functioning. Additionally, children at genetic risk without elevated CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale scores were largely indistinguishable from controls. These results suggest that the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale can help identify children at highest risk for pediatric MDD. If implemented clinically, this scale would cost-effectively screen children and identify those most in need of early intervention resources to impede the progression of depression. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Individuals at high risk for suicide are categorically distinct from those at low risk.

PubMed

Witte, Tracy K; Holm-Denoma, Jill M; Zuromski, Kelly L; Gauthier, Jami M; Ruscio, John

2017-04-01

Although suicide risk is often thought of as existing on a graded continuum, its latent structure (i.e., whether it is categorical or dimensional) has not been empirically determined. Knowledge about the latent structure of suicide risk holds implications for suicide risk assessments, targeted suicide interventions, and suicide research. Our objectives were to determine whether suicide risk can best be understood as a categorical (i.e., taxonic) or dimensional entity, and to validate the nature of any obtained taxon. We conducted taxometric analyses of cross-sectional, baseline data from 16 independent studies funded by the Military Suicide Research Consortium. Participants (N = 1,773) primarily consisted of military personnel, and most had a history of suicidal behavior. The Comparison Curve Fit Index values for MAMBAC (.85), MAXEIG (.77), and L-Mode (.62) all strongly supported categorical (i.e., taxonic) structure for suicide risk. Follow-up analyses comparing the taxon and complement groups revealed substantially larger effect sizes for the variables most conceptually similar to suicide risk compared with variables indicating general distress. Pending replication and establishment of the predictive validity of the taxon, our results suggest the need for a fundamental shift in suicide risk assessment, treatment, and research. Specifically, suicide risk assessments could be shortened without sacrificing validity, the most potent suicide interventions could be allocated to individuals in the high-risk group, and research should generally be conducted on individuals in the high-risk group. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

2018-05-01

Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

In Search of Black Swans: Identifying Students at Risk of Failing Licensing Examinations.

PubMed

Barber, Cassandra; Hammond, Robert; Gula, Lorne; Tithecott, Gary; Chahine, Saad

2018-03-01

To determine which admissions variables and curricular outcomes are predictive of being at risk of failing the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part 1 (MCCQE1), how quickly student risk of failure can be predicted, and to what extent predictive modeling is possible and accurate in estimating future student risk. Data from five graduating cohorts (2011-2015), Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, were collected and analyzed using hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models and determine whether they could be used to predict future risk, using the 2016 graduating cohort. Four predictive models were developed to predict student risk of failure at admissions, year 1, year 2, and pre-MCCQE1. The HGLM analyses identified gender, MCAT verbal reasoning score, two preclerkship course mean grades, and the year 4 summative objective structured clinical examination score as significant predictors of student risk. The predictive accuracy of the models varied. The pre-MCCQE1 model was the most accurate at predicting a student's risk of failing (AUC 0.66-0.93), while the admissions model was not predictive (AUC 0.25-0.47). Key variables predictive of students at risk were found. The predictive models developed suggest, while it is not possible to identify student risk at admission, we can begin to identify and monitor students within the first year. Using such models, programs may be able to identify and monitor students at risk quantitatively and develop tailored intervention strategies.

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Nonverbal dominance behavior among individuals at risk for mania.

PubMed

Bartholomew, Morgan E; Johnson, Sheri L

2014-04-01

Research suggests that people with bipolar disorder may be highly motivated to attain dominance and may over-estimate their social power (Johnson and Carver, 2012). This manic temperament may provide an adaptive advantage in the pursuit of dominance and leadership (Akiskal and Akiskal, 1992). It was hypothesized that people at high risk for bipolar disorder, as defined by the Hypomanic Personality Scale (HPS), would fail to assume a submissive role when it was appropriate to do so. Participants (81 undergraduates) completed an image description task with a confederate. Participants were randomly assigned to interact with a confederate who assumed one of three nonverbal postures: dominant (expanded), neutral, or submissive (constricted). Nonverbal dominance behavior was defined as the rate at which participants expanded their body span during the task. Consistent with hypotheses, an ANOVA indicated an interaction of Mania risk x Dominance condition on body expansion. Whereas participants with low mania risk (HPS scores) adapted complementary behavior in response to the confederate, participants with high mania risk demonstrated a consistently dominant (expanded) nonverbal posture. A major limitation of this study is the use of an analog measure of mania risk in place of clinical diagnoses. In this experiment, participants at high risk for mania maintained a dominant posture even when submissiveness would have been more appropriate. It is argued that persistent dominance behavior may play an important role in the interpersonal interactions of individuals at risk for bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying children at risk for type 2 diabetes in underserved communities.

PubMed

Vivian, Eva M; Carrel, Aaron L; Becker, Tara

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and assess health behaviors among ethnic minority children at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes screenings were conducted at community centers, churches, and local neighborhood health fairs in Madison, Wisconsin. During these events, diabetes risk assessment surveys were given to parents of children between the ages of 10 to 19 years. Parents who identified their children as having 2 or more risk factors for type 2 diabetes were invited to have their child screened for type 2 diabetes. A total of 86 children between the ages of 10 to 19 years (mean age = 13; 58% male) were screened for diabetes. Fifty-one percent of the children were overweight or obese with 38% having >3 risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there was no significant difference in the nutritional habits reported between normal, overweight, or obese children, fewer overweight and obese children reported exercising at least 30 minutes 5 to 7 days a week compared to children with a normal weight (P = .033). Prevention of diabetes is a powerful public health intervention. Targeted diabetes screening in disadvantaged, underserved communities is an effective way to identify families with children at risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, information obtained from these screenings can assist researchers and clinicians in designing accessible and affordable health promotion interventions that are culturally relevant to the youth and families within the community.

Examining the association between social cognition and functioning in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Cotter, Jack; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Papas, Alicia; Allott, Kelly; Nelson, Barnaby; Yung, Alison R; Thompson, Andrew

2017-01-01

Social and role functioning are compromised for the majority of individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis, and it is important to identify factors that contribute to this functional decline. This study aimed to investigate social cognitive abilities, which have previously been linked to functioning in schizophrenia, as potential factors that impact social, role and global functioning in ultra-high risk patients. A total of 30 ultra-high risk patients were recruited from an established at-risk clinical service in Melbourne, Australia, and completed a battery of social cognitive, neurocognitive, clinical and functioning measures. We examined the relationships between all four core domains of social cognition (emotion recognition, theory of mind, social perception and attributional style), neurocognitive, clinical and demographic variables with three measures of functioning (the Global Functioning Social and Role scales and the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale) using correlational and multiple regression analyses. Performance on a visual theory of mind task (visual jokes task) was significantly correlated with both concurrent role ( r = 0.425, p = 0.019) and global functioning ( r = 0.540, p = 0.002). In multivariate analyses, it also accounted for unique variance in global, but not role functioning after adjusting for negative symptoms and stress. Social functioning was not associated with performance on any of the social cognition tasks. Among specific social cognitive abilities, only a test of theory of mind was associated with functioning in our ultra-high risk sample. Further longitudinal research is needed to examine the impact of social cognitive deficits on long-term functional outcome in the ultra-high risk group. Identifying social cognitive abilities that significantly impact functioning is important to inform the development of targeted intervention programmes for ultra-high risk individuals.

A random urine test can identify patients at risk of mesalamine non-adherence: a prospective study.

PubMed

Gifford, Anne E; Berg, Anders H; Lahiff, Conor; Cheifetz, Adam S; Horowitz, Gary; Moss, Alan C

2013-02-01

Mesalamine non-adherence is common among patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and can be difficult to identify in practice. We sought to determine whether a random urine test for salicylates could be used as a marker of 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) ingestion and identify patients at risk of non-adherence. Our aim is to determine whether measurement of salicylates in a random urine sample correlates with 5-ASA levels, and predicts an individual's risk of mesalamine non-adherence. Prospective observational study. Urinary salicylates (by colorimetry) and 5-ASA (by liquid chromatography and tandem-mass spectrometry) were measured in a random urine sample at baseline in patients and controls. Mesalamine adherence was quantified by patient self-reports at enrollment and pharmacy refills of mesalamine over 6 months. A total of 93 patients with UC taking mesalamine maintenance therapy were prospectively enrolled from the clinic. Random urine salicylate levels (by colorimetry) were highly correlated with urine 5-ASA metabolite levels (by mass spectrometry; R2=0.9). A random urine salicylate level above 15 mg/dl distinguished patients who had recently taken mesalamine from controls (area under the curve value 0.9, sensitivity 95%, specificity 77%). A significant proportion of patients (27%) who self-identified as "high adherers" by an adherence questionnaire (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8) had random levels of urine salicylate below this threshold. These patients were at higher risk of objectively measured non-adherence to mesalamine over the subsequent 6 months (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-7.0). A random urine salicylate level measured in the clinic can identify patients who have not recently taken mesalamine, and who are at higher risk of longitudinal non-adherence. This test could be used to screen patients who may warrant interventions to improve adherence and prevent disease relapse.

Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

Mild cognitive impairment: an opportunity to identify patients at high risk for progression to Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Levey, Allan; Lah, James; Goldstein, Felicia; Steenland, Kyle; Bliwise, Donald

2006-07-01

There is increasing evidence that subtle losses in cognitive function may be symptomatic of a transition to early Alzheimer's disease (AD). Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to AD. Of the MCI subtypes, patients with amnestic MCI (a-MCI) are at greatest risk. The objectives of this article were to review the relationship between MCI, normal aging, and AD, and to summarize recent research on the diagnosis and potential treatment of MCI. Relevant articles were identified through searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE using the terms mild cognitive impairment; cognitive impairment, no dementia; and dementia prodrome, with no restrictions as to year. Additional papers of interest were identified from the reference lists of the identified articles. The search was current as of February 2006. Guidelines and recommendations are being developed to assist physicians in diagnosing MCI, identifying its subtype and etiology, understanding the risks for conversion to AD, and managing disease progression. Given the existence of a subset of individuals with a-MCI, who are at greatest risk for progression to AD but still have high levels of cognition and function, the ability to improve symptoms and delay progression to AD would be particularly beneficial. In a 3-year, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 769 patients with a-MCI, treatment with the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil was associated with a significantly lower rate of progression to AD compared with placebo during the first 12 months of treatment (hazard ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.24-0.76; P=0.004) but not at later time points. Of other types of agents that have been investigated (antioxidants, estrogen replacement therapy, cyclooxygenase-2-selective inhibitors), none have shown significant beneficial effects in delaying cognitive decline or progression to AD. New drugs such as secretase inhibitors, small

Identifying at-risk children at school entry: the usefulness of multibehavioral problem profiles.

PubMed

Flanagan, Kelly S; Bierman, Karen L; Kam, Chi-Ming

2003-09-01

Found that 1st-grade teacher ratings of aggressive, hyperactive-inattentive, and low levels of prosocial behaviors made unique contributions to the prediction of school outcomes (measured 2 years later) for 755 children. Person-oriented analyses compared the predictive utility of 5 screening strategies based on child problem profiles to identify children at risk for school problems. A broad screening strategy, in which children with elevations in any 1 of the 3 behavior problem dimensions were identified as "at-risk," showed lower specificity but superior sensitivity, odds ratios, and overall accuracy in the prediction of school outcomes than the other screening strategies that were more narrowly focused or were based on a total problem score. Results are discussed in terms of implications for the screening and design of preventive interventions.

A simple risk score for identifying individuals with impaired fasting glucose in the Southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-23

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006-2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008-2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008-2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice. PMID:25625405

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at 'high risk': a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools.

PubMed

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-12-01

Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes(®), Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at 'high risk' followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Identifying individual- and population-level characteristics that influence rates of risky alcohol consumption in regional communities.

PubMed

Breen, Courtney; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Sanson-Fisher, Rob; D'Este, Catherine; Mattick, Richard P; Gilmour, Stuart

2014-02-01

To examine the extent to which individual- and community- level characteristics account for differences in risky alcohol consumption. A cross-sectional postal survey of 2,977 randomly selected individuals from 20 regional communities in NSW, Australia. Individuals drinking at harmful levels on the AUDIT and for risk of harm in the short term and long-term were identified. Multi-level modelling of the correlates of risky alcohol consumption at the individual and community level was conducted. There were differences between communities in alcohol consumption patterns. Being male, unmarried and reporting worse health were significant individual-level correlates for drinking at levels for risk of harm in the long term. The number of GPs (+) and police (-) were significant community characteristics. Being younger (≤25), unmarried, Australian born and with a larger income was associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term and harmful drinking on the AUDIT. The number of hotels and clubs was positively associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term. Rates of risky drinking vary significantly between communities and both individual and community characteristics are significantly associated with risky alcohol consumption. A combination of individual- and population-level interventions, tailored to the risk profile of individual communities, is most likely to be optimally effective. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Prediction of chronic post-operative pain: pre-operative DNIC testing identifies patients at risk.

PubMed

Yarnitsky, David; Crispel, Yonathan; Eisenberg, Elon; Granovsky, Yelena; Ben-Nun, Alon; Sprecher, Elliot; Best, Lael-Anson; Granot, Michal

2008-08-15

Surgical and medical procedures, mainly those associated with nerve injuries, may lead to chronic persistent pain. Currently, one cannot predict which patients undergoing such procedures are 'at risk' to develop chronic pain. We hypothesized that the endogenous analgesia system is key to determining the pattern of handling noxious events, and therefore testing diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) will predict susceptibility to develop chronic post-thoracotomy pain (CPTP). Pre-operative psychophysical tests, including DNIC assessment (pain reduction during exposure to another noxious stimulus at remote body area), were conducted in 62 patients, who were followed 29.0+/-16.9 weeks after thoracotomy. Logistic regression revealed that pre-operatively assessed DNIC efficiency and acute post-operative pain intensity were two independent predictors for CPTP. Efficient DNIC predicted lower risk of CPTP, with OR 0.52 (0.33-0.77 95% CI, p=0.0024), i.e., a 10-point numerical pain scale (NPS) reduction halves the chance to develop chronic pain. Higher acute pain intensity indicated OR of 1.80 (1.28-2.77, p=0.0024) predicting nearly a double chance to develop chronic pain for each 10-point increase. The other psychophysical measures, pain thresholds and supra-threshold pain magnitudes, did not predict CPTP. For prediction of acute post-operative pain intensity, DNIC efficiency was not found significant. Effectiveness of the endogenous analgesia system obtained at a pain-free state, therefore, seems to reflect the individual's ability to tackle noxious events, identifying patients 'at risk' to develop post-intervention chronic pain. Applying this diagnostic approach before procedures that might generate pain may allow individually tailored pain prevention and management, which may substantially reduce suffering.

Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

PubMed Central

Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

2014-01-01

Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Identifying risk profiles for childhood obesity using recursive partitioning based on individual, familial, and neighborhood environment factors.

PubMed

Van Hulst, Andraea; Roy-Gagnon, Marie-Hélène; Gauvin, Lise; Kestens, Yan; Henderson, Mélanie; Barnett, Tracie A

2015-02-15

Few studies consider how risk factors within multiple levels of influence operate synergistically to determine childhood obesity. We used recursive partitioning analysis to identify unique combinations of individual, familial, and neighborhood factors that best predict obesity in children, and tested whether these predict 2-year changes in body mass index (BMI). Data were collected in 2005-2008 and in 2008-2011 for 512 Quebec youth (8-10 years at baseline) with a history of parental obesity (QUALITY study). CDC age- and sex-specific BMI percentiles were computed and children were considered obese if their BMI was ≥95th percentile. Individual (physical activity and sugar-sweetened beverage intake), familial (household socioeconomic status and measures of parental obesity including both BMI and waist circumference), and neighborhood (disadvantage, prestige, and presence of parks, convenience stores, and fast food restaurants) factors were examined. Recursive partitioning, a method that generates a classification tree predicting obesity based on combined exposure to a series of variables, was used. Associations between resulting varying risk group membership and BMI percentile at baseline and 2-year follow up were examined using linear regression. Recursive partitioning yielded 7 subgroups with a prevalence of obesity equal to 8%, 11%, 26%, 28%, 41%, 60%, and 63%, respectively. The 2 highest risk subgroups comprised i) children not meeting physical activity guidelines, with at least one BMI-defined obese parent and 2 abdominally obese parents, living in disadvantaged neighborhoods without parks and, ii) children with these characteristics, except with access to ≥1 park and with access to ≥1 convenience store. Group membership was strongly associated with BMI at baseline, but did not systematically predict change in BMI. Findings support the notion that obesity is predicted by multiple factors in different settings and provide some indications of potentially

Decision-making about reproductive choices among individuals at-risk for Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Klitzman, Robert; Thorne, Deborah; Williamson, Jennifer; Chung, Wendy; Marder, Karen

2007-06-01

We explored how individuals at-risk for HD who have or have not been tested make reproductive decisions and what factors are involved. We interviewed 21 individuals (8 with and 4 without the mutation, and 9 un-tested) in-depth for 2 hours each. At-risk individuals faced a difficult series of dilemmas of whether to: get pregnant and deliver, have fetal testing, have pre-implantation genetic diagnosis, adopt, or have no children. These individuals weighed competing desires and concerns: their own desires vs. those of spouses vs. broader moral concerns (e.g., to end the disease; and/or follow dictates against abortion) vs. perceptions of the interests of current or future offspring. Quandaries arose of how much and to whom to feel responsible. Some changed their perspectives over time (e.g., first "gambling," then being more cautious). These data have critical implications for genetic counselors and other health care workers and future research, particularly as more genetic tests become available.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

PubMed

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Identifying Patients With Vesicovaginal Fistula at High Risk of Urinary Incontinence After Surgery

PubMed Central

Bengtson, Angela M.; Kopp, Dawn; Tang, Jennifer H.; Chipungu, Ennet; Moyo, Margaret; Wilkinson, Jeffrey

2016-01-01

Objective To develop a risk score to identify women with vesicovaginal fistula at high risk of residual urinary incontinence after surgical repair. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 401 women undergoing their first vesicovaginal fistula repair at a referral fistula repair center in Lilongwe, Malawi, between September 2011 and December 2014, who returned for follow-up within 120 days of surgery. We used logistic regression to develop a risk score to identify women with high likelihood of residual urinary incontinence, defined as incontinence grade 2-5 within 120 days of vesicovaginal fistula repair, based on preoperative clinical and demographic characteristics (age, number of years with fistula, HIV status, body mass index, previous repair surgery at an outside facility, revised Goh Classification, Goh vesicovaginal fistula size, circumferential fistula, vaginal scaring, bladder size, and urethral length). The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the risk score at each cut-point were assessed. Results Overall, 11 (3%) women had unsuccessful fistula closure. Of those with successful fistula closure (n=372), 85 (23%) experienced residual incontinence. A risk score cut-point of 20 had sensitivity 82% (95% CI 72%, 89%) and specificity 63% (95% CI 57%, 69%) to potentially identify women with residual incontinence. In our population, the positive predictive value for a risk score cut-point of _20 or higher was 43% (95% CI 36%, 51%) and the negative predictive value was 91% (95% CI 86%, 94%). Forty-eight percent of our study population had a risk score ≥20 and therefore, would have been identified for further intervention. Conclusions A risk score 20 or higher was associated with an increased likelihood of residual incontinence, with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. If validated in alternative settings, the risk score could be used to refer women with high likelihood of postoperative incontinence to more

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

PubMed

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Educational Outcomes for Children At-Risk: The Influence of Individual Differences in Children's Temperaments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Hendawi, Maha; Reed, Evelyn

2012-01-01

Individual differences in temperament can be protective or risk factors that may enhance or interfere with children's healthy development and educational success. This study examined the concurrent and predictive relationships between temperament, school adjustment, and academic achievement in children at-risk. Seventy-seven children at-risk, ages…

Identifying Children at High Risk for a Child Maltreatment Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubowitz, Howard; Kim, Jeongeun; Black, Maureen M.; Weisbart, Cindy; Semiatin, Joshua; Magder, Laurence S.

2011-01-01

Objective: To help professionals identify factors that place families at risk for future child maltreatment, to facilitate necessary services and to potentially help prevent abuse and neglect. Method: The data are from a prospective, longitudinal study of 332 low-income families recruited from urban pediatric primary care clinics, followed for…

Identifying Individual, Cultural and Asthma-Related Risk and Protective Factors Associated With Resilient Asthma Outcomes in Urban Children and Families

PubMed Central

McQuaid, Elizabeth L.; Jandasek, Barbara; Kopel, Sheryl J.; Seifer, Ronald; Klein, Robert B.; Potter, Christina; Fritz, Gregory K.

2012-01-01

Objective The goal of this study is to identify individual, family/cultural, and illness-related protective factors that may minimize asthma morbidity in the context of multiple urban risks in a sample of inner-city children and families. Methods Participating families are from African-American (33), Latino (51) and non-Latino white (47) backgrounds. A total of 131 children with asthma (56% male), ages 6–13 years and their primary caregivers were included. Results Analyses supported the relationship between cumulative risks and asthma morbidity across children of the sample. Protective processes functioned differently by ethnic group. For example, Latino families exhibited higher levels of family connectedness, and this was associated with lower levels of functional limitation due to asthma, in the context of risks. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of examining multilevel protective processes that may guard against urban risks factors to decrease morbidity. Intervention programs for families from specific ethnic groups can be tailored to consider individual, family-based/cultural and illness-related supports that decrease stress and enhance aspects of asthma treatment. PMID:22408053

Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome in Nigeria: A multicentre observational study.

PubMed

Desalu, Olufemi O; Onyedum, Cajetan C; Adeoti, Adekunle O; Fadare, Joseph O; Sanya, Emmanuel O; Fawale, Michael B; Bello, Hamzat A

2017-06-01

Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with significant health consequences. A significant proportion of hospitalized patients at risk for obstructive sleep apnoea were never identified and referred for polysomnography for diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in tertiary hospitals in Nigeria. This was a multicentre observational study of adult patients hospitalized in three selected hospitals from 15th January to 17th March 2015. Berlin questionnaire and Epworth sleepiness scale were used to assess for obstructive sleep apnoea risk and excessive daytime sleepiness respectively. Additional questions on traditional risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea were also obtained. Nine hundred and twenty-six patients were recruited into the study. Respondents' mean age was 44.3 years ± 15.2years, 486 (52.5%) were females and 556 (60.0%) had one or more medical co-morbidity and none of the patients had a previous diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea. Factors that were independently associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea include systemic hypertension(aOR-10.33;95%: CI 6.42-16.61), obesity(aOR-7.87;95% CI: 4.33-14.29); excessive daytime sleepiness (aOR-3.77;95% CI :2.28-6.22), tobacco smoking (aOR-2.99;95% CI: 1.76-5.07), snoring in a first-degree relative (aOR-1.83;95% CI: 1.19-2.81); and the use of sedative (aOR-1.82;95% CI: 1.06-3.15). This study shows that patients with systemic hypertension, obesity, excessive daytime sleepiness, history of smoking, snoring in a first-degree relative and use of sedatives are at high risk of obstructive sleep apnoea. None of the patients at high risk had a previous diagnosis of sleep apnoea by a physician, highlighting the diagnostic challenges of this condition. The results of this study will assist health care professionals in early identification of individuals at risk of

Use of plasma triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in young, healthy South Asians.

PubMed

Flowers, Elena; Molina, César; Mathur, Ashish; Reaven, Gerald M

2015-01-01

Prevalence of insulin resistance and associated dyslipidaemia [high triglyceride (TG) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentrations] are increased in South Asian individuals; likely contributing to their increased risk of type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The plasma concentration ratio of TG/HDL-C has been proposed as a simple way to identify apparently healthy individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk. This study was carried out to compare the cardio-metabolic risk profiles of high-risk South Asian individuals identified by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio versus those with a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. Body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting plasma glucose, insulin, TG, and HDL-C concentrations were determined in apparently healthy men (n=498) and women (n=526). The cardio-metabolic risk profile of "high risk" individuals identified by TG/HDL-C ratios in men (≥ 3.5) and women (≥2.5) was compared to those identified by a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. More concentrations of all cardio-metabolic risk factors were significantly higher in "high risk" groups, identified by either the TG/HDL-C ratio or a diagnosis of the metabolic syndrome. TG, HDL-C, and insulin concentrations were not significantly different in "high risk" groups identified by either criterion, whereas plasma glucose and blood pressure were higher in those with the metabolic syndrome. Apparently healthy South Asian individuals at high cardio-metabolic risk can be identified using either the TG/HDL-C ratio or the metabolic syndrome criteria. The TG/HDL-C ratio may be used as a simple marker to identify such individuals.

Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

PubMed

Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying children at risk for language impairment: screening of communication at 18 months.

PubMed

Bruce, B; Kornfält, R; Radeborg, K; Hansson, K; Nettelbladt, U

2003-09-01

To investigate the possibility of identifying children at risk for language impairment based on a new screening instrument to assess communication and language skills at 18 mo of age. At 18 mo, 58 children were assessed with a screening instrument for communication and language consisting of a professional assessment and a parents' questionnaire. Students of speech and language pathology, well trained in child language assessment, carried out the professional assessment, which was based on observations of play behaviour, interaction and expressive and receptive language skills. Of the 58 children, 43 attended a follow-up assessment of language skills at 54 mo of age. Nine children were considered to be at risk for language impairment at 18 mo and 10 children were evaluated as being at risk at 54 mo. A significant positive correlation was found between the professional evaluations at 18 mo and the language tests at 54 mo. Verbal comprehension and pretend play correlated significantly with the results on the language tests. A professional screening of communication and language at 18 mo of age is worthwhile for predicting problems in language development. The results further show that language comprehension and pretend play rather than expressive skills should be emphasized.

Identifying Adolescent Patients at Risk for Sexually Transmitted Infections: Development of a Brief Sexual Health Screening Survey.

PubMed

Victor, Elizabeth C; Chung, Richard; Thompson, Robert J

2015-08-01

This study examined the association between survey responses to health behaviors, personality/psychosocial factors, and self-reported sexually transmitted infections (STIs) to create a brief survey to identify youth at risk for contracting STIs. Participants included 200 racially diverse 14- to 18-year-old patients from a pediatric primary care clinic. Two sexual behavior variables and one peer norm variable were used to differentiate subgroups of individuals at risk of contracting a STI based on reported history of STIs using probability (decision tree) analyses. These items, as well as sexual orientation and having ever had oral sex, were used to create a brief sexual health screening (BSHS) survey. Each point increase in total BSHS score was associated with exponential growth in the percentage of sexually active adolescents reporting STIs. Findings suggest that the BSHS could serve as a useful tool for clinicians to quickly and accurately detect sexual risk among adolescent patients. © The Author(s) 2014.

Identifying Adolescents at Highly Elevated Risk for Suicidal Behavior in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Berona, Johnny; Czyz, Ewa; Horwitz, Adam G.; Gipson, Polly Y.

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective: The feasibility and concurrent validity of adolescent suicide risk screening in medical emergency departments (EDs) has been documented. The objectives of this short-term prospective study of adolescents who screened positive for suicide risk in the ED were: 1) to examine adolescents' rate of suicidal behavior during the 2 months following their ED visits and compare it with reported rates for psychiatric samples; and 2) to identify possible predictors of acute risk for suicidal behavior in this at-risk sample. Method: Participants were 81 adolescents, ages 14–19 years, seeking services for psychiatric and nonpsychiatric chief complaints, who screened positive for suicide risk because of recent suicidal ideation, a suicide attempt, and/or depression plus alcohol or substance misuse. A comprehensive assessment of suicidal behavior, using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, was conducted at baseline and 2 month follow-up. Results: Six adolescents (7.4%) reported a suicide attempt and 15 (18.5%) engaged in some type of suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, or interrupted suicide attempt; preparatory behavior) during the 2 months following their ED visit. These rates suggest that this screen identified a high-risk sample. Furthermore, adolescents who screened positive for suicidal ideation and/or attempt plus depression and alcohol/substance misuse were most likely to engage in future suicidal behavior (38.9%). Conclusions: In this study, use of a higher screen threshold (multiple suicide risk factors) showed promise for identifying highly elevated acute risk for suicidal behavior. PMID:25746114

Green Construction and Energy Training Program for At-Risk Individuals: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

del Puerto, Carla Lopez; Crowson, Adrienne

2013-01-01

Training individuals who are at risk of unemployment/underemployment to increase their employability is a mission of many nonprofit agencies. These training programs, often supported by government funding, attempt to reduce these individuals' reliance on government assistance. The purpose of this study is to obtain hard data and an in-depth…

Objective Understanding of Front-of-Package Nutrition Labels among Nutritionally At-Risk Individuals

PubMed Central

Ducrot, Pauline; Méjean, Caroline; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K.; Hercberg, Serge; Péneau, Sandrine

2015-01-01

In the ongoing debate about front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labels, little data exist regarding nutritionally at-risk populations, although they are critical targets of prevention programs. This study aimed to compare the impact of FOP labels on the ability to rank products according to their nutritional quality among French adults potentially at risk of poor dietary quality (N = 14,230). Four labels were evaluated: Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), 5-Color Nutrition Label (5-CNL), Green Tick (Tick), along with a reference without label. Mixed models were used to assess how individual characteristics and FOP labels were associated with the ability to rank products. Older participants and those with a lower educational level, income, nutritional knowledge, and likelihood of reading nutrition facts were less skilled at ranking food products according to nutritional quality. Compared with individual characteristics, nutrition labels had an increased impact on food product ranking ability. Overall, 5-CNL corresponded to the highest rate of correct responses, followed by MTL, GDA, and Tick (p < 0.0001). The strongest impact of 5-CNL was observed among individuals with no nutritional knowledge (odds ratio (OR): 20.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.19–31.06). Therefore, 5-CNL appeared to be effective at informing consumers, including those who are nutritionally at-risk, about the nutritional quality of food products. PMID:26305255

Objective Understanding of Front-of-Package Nutrition Labels among Nutritionally At-Risk Individuals.

PubMed

Ducrot, Pauline; Méjean, Caroline; Julia, Chantal; Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle; Touvier, Mathilde; Fezeu, Léopold K; Hercberg, Serge; Péneau, Sandrine

2015-08-24

In the ongoing debate about front-of-package (FOP) nutrition labels, little data exist regarding nutritionally at-risk populations, although they are critical targets of prevention programs. This study aimed to compare the impact of FOP labels on the ability to rank products according to their nutritional quality among French adults potentially at risk of poor dietary quality (N = 14,230). Four labels were evaluated: Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), 5-Color Nutrition Label (5-CNL), Green Tick (Tick), along with a reference without label. Mixed models were used to assess how individual characteristics and FOP labels were associated with the ability to rank products. Older participants and those with a lower educational level, income, nutritional knowledge, and likelihood of reading nutrition facts were less skilled at ranking food products according to nutritional quality. Compared with individual characteristics, nutrition labels had an increased impact on food product ranking ability. Overall, 5-CNL corresponded to the highest rate of correct responses, followed by MTL, GDA, and Tick (p < 0.0001). The strongest impact of 5-CNL was observed among individuals with no nutritional knowledge (odds ratio (OR): 20.24; 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.19-31.06). Therefore, 5-CNL appeared to be effective at informing consumers, including those who are nutritionally at-risk, about the nutritional quality of food products.

Conflict monitoring and adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Patino, Luis R; Adler, Caleb M; Mills, Neil P; Strakowski, Stephen M; Fleck, David E; Welge, Jeffrey A; DelBello, Melissa P

2013-05-01

To examine conflict monitoring and conflict-driven adaptation in individuals at familial risk for developing bipolar disorder. We recruited 24 adolescents who had a parent with bipolar disorder and 23 adolescents with healthy parents. Participants completed an arrow version of the Eriksen Flanker Task that included trials with three levels of conflict: neutral, congruent, and incongruent flanks. Differences in performance were explored based upon the level of conflict in the current and previous trials. Individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder performed more slowly than youth with healthy parents in all trials. Analyses evaluating sequential effects revealed that at-risk subjects responded more slowly than youth of healthy parents for all trial types when preceded by an incongruent trial, for incongruent trials preceded by congruent trials, and for neutral and congruent trials when preceded by neutral trials. In contrast to the comparison group, at-risk adolescents failed to display a response time advantage for incongruent trials preceded by an incongruent trial. When removing subjects with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), differences between groups in response time fell below significant level, but a difference in sequence modulation remained significant. Subjects at risk for bipolar disorder also displayed greater intra-subject response time variability for incongruent and congruent trials compared with the comparison adolescents. No differences in response accuracy were observed between groups. Adolescents at risk for developing bipolar disorder displayed specific deficits in cognitive flexibility, which might be useful as a potential marker related to the development of bipolar disorder. © 2013 John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model.

PubMed

Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

2013-05-28

To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. A cross-sectional survey. Malawi The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15-49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Individual HIV status: positive or not. Findings from the Pearson χ(2) and χ(2) Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15-24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25-49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30-49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment.

Work Ability Index as tool to identify workers at risk of premature work exit.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R; van der Klink, Jac J L; Groothoff, Johan W; van Rhenen, Willem

2014-12-01

To investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as tool for identifying workers at risk of premature work exit in terms of disability pension, unemployment, or early retirement. Prospective cohort study of 11,537 male construction workers (mean age 45.5 years), who completed the WAI at baseline and reported their work status (employed, unemployed, disability pension, or retired) after mean 2.3 years of follow-up. Associations between WAI scores and work status were investigated by multinomial logistic regression analysis. The ability of the WAI to discriminate between workers at high and low risk of premature work exit was analyzed by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve. 9,530 (83 %) construction workers had complete data for analysis. At follow-up, 336 (4 %) workers reported disability pension, 125 (1 %) unemployment, and 255 (3 %) retirement. WAI scores were prospectively associated with the risk of disability pension at follow-up, but not with the risk of unemployment and early retirement. The WAI showed fair discrimination to identify workers at risk of disability pension [AUC = 0.74; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77]. The discriminative ability decreased with age from AUC = 0.78 in workers aged 30-39 years to AUC = 0.69 in workers ≥50 years of age. Discrimination failed for unemployment (AUC = 0.51; 95 % CI 0.47-0.55) and early retirement (AUC = 0.58; 95 % CI 0.53-0.61). The WAI can be used to identify construction workers <50 years of age at increased risk of disability pension and invite them for preventive interventions.

Biological phenotypes associated with individuals at high risk for developing alcohol-related disorders: Part 1.

PubMed

Hill, S Y

2000-01-01

This article reviews the results of studies concerning particular classes of biological phenotypes that may have relevance for alcohol dependence. Broadly defined, these classes include brain neurotransmitter systems and neuroelectric potentials. Evidence is presented concerning genotypic variation in alcoholics and high-risk relatives suggesting that the etiology of alcoholism and other addictive diseases is mediated in part through suboptimal neurotransmitter functioning. Research opportunities are offered with respect to specific candidate genes that have been cloned from these neurotransmitter systems that could be most fully utilized in family-based genetic analyses. Additional evidence is offered, suggesting that characteristics of particular neuroelectric potentials (e.g. the amplitude of the P300 component of the event-related potential) may provide another dimension of potential markers that could be used to identify children at risk. Finally, methodological considerations specific to high risk studies are discussed. Among these are the need to include a plan for studying more severe cases of alcohol dependence that are relatively uncomplicated by other major psychiatric disorders. Plans for long-term follow-up of children at highest risk for developing the disorder should also be included. Multiple domains of inquiry should not be viewed as "unfocused" but rather as an economical means for utilizing highly characterized samples of individuals meeting rigorous research criteria.

Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

2018-01-01

Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

Identifying Preschool Children At-Risk of Later Reading Difficulties: Evaluation of two Emergent Literacy Screening Tools

PubMed Central

Wilson, Shauna B.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2012-01-01

Emergent literacy skills are predictive of children’s early reading success, and literacy achievement in early schooling declines more rapidly for children who are below-average readers. It is therefore important for teachers to identify accurately children at risk for later reading difficulty so children can be exposed to good emergent literacy interventions. In this study, 176 preschoolers were administered two screening tools, the Revised Get Ready to Read! (GRTR-R) and the Individual Growth and Development Indicators (IGDIs), and a diagnostic measure at two time points. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses revealed that at optimal cut scores, GRTR-R provided more accurate classification of children’s overall emergent literacy skills than did IGDIs. However, neither measure was particularly good at classifying specific emergent literacy skills. PMID:19822699

Perceived risks and use of psychotherapy via telemedicine for patients at risk for suicide.

PubMed

Gilmore, Amanda K; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F

2017-01-01

Introduction Suicide is a major public health problem and its human, emotional, and economic costs are significant. Individuals in rural areas are at highest risk for suicide. However, telemedicine services are typically not rendered to individuals who are actively suicidal. The goals of the current study were to identify the risks of using telemedicine for mental healthcare from the perspective of licensed mental health providers and to determine factors associated with the use of telemedicine with patients who are at high risk for suicide. Methods A total of 52 licensed mental health providers were recruited online through several professional organization listservs and targeted emails. Providers completed online questionnaires regarding demographics, caseload of suicidal patients, perceived risks for using telemedicine with patients at risk for suicide, attitudes towards telemedicine, and use of telemedicine with patients at risk for suicide. Results Three key perceived risks associated with using telemedicine were identified, including assessment, lack of control over patient, and difficulties triaging patients if needed. It was also found that individuals who had more positive attitudes towards telemedicine, younger providers, and more experienced providers were more likely to use telemedicine with patients who are at high risk for suicide. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the perceived risks and use of telemedicine with patients at high risk for suicide. It is essential to continue this line of research to develop protocols for the provision of evidence-based therapy via telemedicine for this high-risk group.

Sources of HIV-Prevention Information for Individuals at High Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sagrestano, Lynda M.; Heiss-Wendt, Renate M.; Mizan, Ainon N.; Kittleson, Mark J.; Sarvela, Paul D.

2001-01-01

Identified the best methods of reaching people at high risk with HIV-prevention messages. Data from men who had sex with men, injection drug users, sex workers, HIV-positive people, heterosexuals, migrant workers, and perinatal women indicated that over 70 percent were exposed to HIV-prevention messages, though sources of exposure varied by risk…

Using a single binge drinking question to identify Russian women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy.

PubMed

Balachova, Tatiana; Sobell, Linda Carter; Agrawal, Sangeeta; Isurina, Galina; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Bohora, Som

2015-07-01

Low rates of contraception and at-risk drinking place many Russian women at risk of an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). The only realistic way to determine when women are at risk of AEP is by self-reports. A U.S. study found that a single binge-drinking question (SBD) effectively identified nearly all women whose drinking placed them at risk of AEP. The present study replicated the U.S. Participants were 689 non-pregnant Russian women of childbearing age who were at AEP risk. Their answers to SBD, "During the previous three months, how often did you have four or more drinks on one occasion", were compared with their reports of binge drinking on a 90-day Timeline Followback (TLFB) calendar. The SBD identified 99% of at-risk Russian women as binge drinkers, replicating U.S. Only 8% of the women were identified at-risk using a second AEP criterion of ≥8 drinks on average per week. Although Russian women did not report heavy weekly drinking and two-thirds did not meet AUDIT criteria for problem drinking, when they did drink, 40% of the time it was binge drinking. Almost all Russian women who were at risk of an AEP were identified by a single binge-drinking question. Results from this study suggest that Russian health care practitioners can use SBD to successfully screen women for AEP risk. SBD identified 99% of Russian women who were at AEP risk. Consequently, it is recommended that SBD be incorporated into routine health care screenings at OB/GYN clinic visits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

PubMed Central

Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

2015-01-01

Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as ‘dyslexic’ or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Results Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Conclusions Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. PMID:25832320

Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk.

PubMed

Defronzo, Ralph A; Tripathy, Devjit; Schwenke, Dawn C; Banerji, Maryann; Bray, George A; Buchanan, Thomas A; Clement, Stephen C; Henry, Robert R; Kitabchi, Abbas E; Mudaliar, Sunder; Ratner, Robert E; Stentz, Frankie B; Musi, Nicolas; Reaven, Peter D; Gastaldelli, Amalia

2013-11-01

Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DM versus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACT NOW and who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, G0-120 during OGTT, HbA1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln I0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [I0-120/G0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [I0-120/G0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P < 0.0001) was the variable most closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).

Exploring perceptions of "wellness" in black ethnic minority individuals at risk of developing psychosis.

PubMed

Codjoe, Louisa; Byrne, Majella; Lister, Matthew; McGuire, Philip; Valmaggia, Lucia

2013-03-01

The NICE Schizophrenia guidelines (NICE, 2009, Update) recommend that services should address cultural differences in treatment, expectations and adherence, and clients' explanatory models of illness should be better understood. Service users from Black African and Black Caribbean communities are overrepresented in psychosis services in the UK, yet there is no literature on how wellness is understood by this group. This study explored perceptions of wellness in Black African and Black Caribbean individuals with an At Risk Mental State (ARMS) for psychosis. A Q set of potential meanings of wellness was identified from a literature search and interviews with people at risk of developing psychosis. From this, 50 potential definitions were identified; twenty Black African and Black Caribbean ARMS clients ranked these definitions. Following factor analysis of completed Q sorts, six factors emerged that offered insight into perceptions of wellness in this population. These factors included: sense of social purpose explanation, the surviving God's test explanation, the internalization of spirituality explanation, understanding and attribution of symptoms to witchcraft explanation, avoidance and adversity explanation, and seeking help to cope explanation. Although preliminary, differences between the factors suggests that there may be perceptions of wellness specific to these groups that are distinct from the medical view of wellness promoted within early detection services. These differences may potentially impact upon engagement, particularly factors that clients feel may facilitate or aide their recovery. It is suggested that these differences need to be considered as part of the assessment and formulation process.

Modeling Retention at a Large Public University: Can At-Risk Students Be Identified Early Enough to Treat?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singell, Larry D.; Waddell, Glen R.

2010-01-01

We examine the extent to which readily available data at a large public university can be used to a priori identify at-risk students who may benefit from targeted retention efforts. Although it is possible to identify such students, there remains an inevitable tradeoff in any resource allocation between not treating the students who are likely to…

A Systematic Review of Interventions to Improve Adherence to Melanoma Preventive Behaviors for Individuals at Elevated Risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Yelena P.; Aspinwall, Lisa G.; Conn, Bridgid M.; Stump, Tammy; Grahmann, Bridget; Leachman, Sancy A.

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives To examine the effectiveness of behavioral interventions for melanoma prevention targeted to individuals at elevated risk due to personal and/or family history. Methods Through literature searches in 5 search databases (through July 2014), 20 articles describing 14 unique interventions focused on melanoma prevention among individuals at elevated risk for the disease were identified. Interventions targeting only patients undergoing active treatment for melanoma were excluded. Results The average study quality was moderate. The majority of interventions (6 out of 9, 66% of studies) led to improvements in one or more photoprotective behaviors, particularly for improvements in use of protective clothing (3 out of 5, 60% of studies), and frequency and/or thoroughness of skin self-examinations (9 out of 12, 75%). Fewer interventions (5 out of 14, 36%) targeted uptake of total body skin examinations (60% led to improvements). Also, fewer interventions targeted all three preventive behaviors (5 out of 14, 36%). Conclusions Findings suggest future interventions should aim to improve adherence across multiple preventive behaviors, over a longer time period (past 8 months post-intervention), and target high-risk children. Studies should include adequate sample sizes to investigate moderators and mediators of intervention effectiveness. Interventions may be strengthened by new techniques, such as incorporating family members (e.g., to improve thoroughness of skin self-examinations) and eHealth technology. PMID:27090434

Criminal law and HIV testing: empirical analysis of how at-risk individuals respond to the law.

PubMed

Lee, Sun Goo

2014-01-01

This Note assesses the effect of laws that specifically criminalize behaviors that expose others to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). This Note examines the relationship between HIV testing decisions by high-risk individuals and the existence of these HIV-specific statutes, as well as the amount of media coverage related to them. One of the main reasons public health experts criticize criminalization of HIV-exposing behavior is that it may discourage at-risk individuals from undergoing HIV testing. This argument, however, remains empirically untested to date. This study quantitatively examines whether at-risk individuals living in jurisdictions with HIV-specific statutes are less likely to report having been tested for HIV in the past year compared to those living in jurisdictions without HIV-specific statutes. Regression analysis is conducted using data collected in the United States over a seven-year span. The results show that at-risk individuals residing in states with HIV-specific statutes are no less likely to report having been tested for HIV than those who live in other states. However, the number of people who reported that they had been tested for HIV is inversely correlated with the frequency of newspaper coverage of criminalization of HIV-exposing behavior. These findings imply that at-risk individuals' HIV testing is associated with media coverage of criminalizing HIV-exposing behavior. The negative impact that criminal law has on HIV testing rates could be a serious public health threat. Testing is often the initial step in public health interventions that most effectively modify the risky behavior of HIV-positive individuals. The adverse consequence of criminalization should weigh heavily in the design and application of criminal sanctions for HIV-exposing behavior. In addition, future research should further explore the relationships between criminalization, media coverage of criminalization, and HIV testing decisions for a more nuanced

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S.; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims: Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. Methods: The development cohort included patients aged 16–89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. Results: The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1–29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. Conclusions: An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. PMID:27647858

Predicting the Individual Risk of Acute Severe Colitis at Diagnosis.

PubMed

Cesarini, Monica; Collins, Gary S; Rönnblom, Anders; Santos, Antonieta; Wang, Lai Mun; Sjöberg, Daniel; Parkes, Miles; Keshav, Satish; Travis, Simon P L

2017-03-01

Acute severe colitis [ASC] is associated with major morbidity. We aimed to develop and externally validate an index that predicted ASC within 3 years of diagnosis. The development cohort included patients aged 16-89 years, diagnosed with ulcerative colitis [UC] in Oxford and followed for 3 years. Primary outcome was hospitalization for ASC, excluding patients admitted within 1 month of diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression examined the adjusted association of seven risk factors with ASC. Backwards elimination produced a parsimonious model that was simplified to create an easy-to-use index. External validation occurred in separate cohorts from Cambridge, UK, and Uppsala, Sweden. The development cohort [Oxford] included 34/111 patients who developed ASC within a median 14 months [range 1-29]. The final model applied the sum of 1 point each for extensive disease, C-reactive protein [CRP] > 10mg/l, or haemoglobin < 12g/dl F or < 14g/dl M at diagnosis, to give a score from 0/3 to 3/3. This predicted a 70% risk of developing ASC within 3 years [score 3/3]. Validation cohorts included different proportions with ASC [Cambridge = 25/96; Uppsala = 18/298]. Of those scoring 3/3 at diagnosis, 18/18 [Cambridge] and 12/13 [Uppsala] subsequently developed ASC. Discriminant ability [c-index, where 1.0 = perfect discrimination] was 0.81 [Oxford], 0.95 [Cambridge], 0.97 [Uppsala]. Internal validation using bootstrapping showed good calibration, with similar predicted risk across all cohorts. A nomogram predicted individual risk. An index applied at diagnosis reliably predicts the risk of ASC within 3 years in different populations. Patients with a score 3/3 at diagnosis may merit early immunomodulator therapy. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Different type 2 diabetes risk assessments predict dissimilar numbers at ‘high risk’: a retrospective analysis of diabetes risk-assessment tools

PubMed Central

Gray, Benjamin J; Bracken, Richard M; Turner, Daniel; Morgan, Kerry; Thomas, Michael; Williams, Sally P; Williams, Meurig; Rice, Sam; Stephens, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Background Use of a validated risk-assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is currently recommended. It is under-reported, however, whether a different risk tool alters the predicted risk of an individual. Aim This study explored any differences between commonly used validated risk-assessment tools for type 2 diabetes. Design and setting Cross-sectional analysis of individuals who participated in a workplace-based risk assessment in Carmarthenshire, South Wales. Method Retrospective analysis of 676 individuals (389 females and 287 males) who participated in a workplace-based diabetes risk-assessment initiative. Ten-year risk of type 2 diabetes was predicted using the validated QDiabetes®, Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA), FINDRISC, and Cambridge Risk Score (CRS) algorithms. Results Differences between the risk-assessment tools were apparent following retrospective analysis of individuals. CRS categorised the highest proportion (13.6%) of individuals at ‘high risk’ followed by FINDRISC (6.6%), QDiabetes (6.1%), and, finally, the LRA was the most conservative risk tool (3.1%). Following further analysis by sex, over one-quarter of males were categorised at high risk using CRS (25.4%), whereas a greater percentage of females were categorised as high risk using FINDRISC (7.8%). Conclusion The adoption of a different valid risk-assessment tool can alter the predicted risk of an individual and caution should be used to identify those individuals who really are at high risk of type 2 diabetes. PMID:26541180

Dietary screening tool identifies nutritional risk in older adults123

PubMed Central

Miller, Paige E; Mitchell, Diane C; Hartman, Terryl J; Lawrence, Frank R; Sempos, Christopher T; Smiciklas-Wright, Helen

2009-01-01

Background: No rapid methods exist for screening overall dietary intakes in older adults. Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a scoring system for a diet screening tool to identify nutritional risk in community-dwelling older adults. Design: This cross-sectional study in older adults (n = 204) who reside in rural areas examined nutrition status by using an in-person interview, biochemical measures, and four 24-h recalls that included the use of dietary supplements. Results: The dietary screening tool was able to characterize 3 levels of nutritional risk: at risk, possible risk, and not at risk. Individuals classified as at nutritional risk had significantly lower indicators of diet quality (Healthy Eating Index and Mean Adequacy Ratio) and intakes of protein, most micronutrients, dietary fiber, fruit, and vegetables. The at-risk group had higher intakes of fats and oils and refined grains. The at-risk group also had the lowest serum vitamin B-12, folate, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, and zeaxanthin concentrations. The not-at-nutritional-risk group had significantly higher lycopene and β-carotene and lower homocysteine and methylmalonic acid concentrations. Conclusion: The dietary screening tool is a simple and practical tool that can help to detect nutritional risk in older adults. PMID:19458013

Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

2012-01-01

This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

Lipid ratio as a suitable tool to identify individuals with MetS risk: A case- control study.

PubMed

Abbasian, Maryam; Delvarianzadeh, Mehri; Ebrahimi, Hossein; Khosravi, Farideh

2017-11-01

This study aimed to compare the serum lipids ratio in staff with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS) who were working in Shahroud University of Medical Sciences. This case-control study was conducted in 2015 on 499 personnel aged 30-60 years old. ATP III criteria were used to diagnose patients with MetS. The data were analyzed by using logistic regression and ROC curve. Mean lipid ratio was higher in individuals having the MetS in both sexes compared with those without. In addition, the mean levels of lipid ratios significantly increased with increasing number of MetS components in both sexes. Also it could be concluded that TG/HDL-C ratio is the best marker for the diagnosis of MetS in men and women. Moreover, the cut-off point for the TG/HDL-C was 2.86 in women and 4.03 in men. It was found that for any unit of increases in the TG/HDL-C, the risk of developing the MetS will increase by 2.12 times. TG/HDL-C ratio is found to be the best clinical marker for the diagnosis of MetS compare with other lipid ratios, therefore it is recommended to be used as a feasible tool to identify individuals with MetS risk. Copyright © 2016 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein ratio identifies children who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease.

PubMed

Bailey, Daniel P; Savory, Louise A; Denton, Sarah J; Davies, Ben R; Kerr, Catherine J

2014-08-01

It is important to develop simple, reliable methods to identify high-risk individuals who may benefit from intervention. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio and cardiometabolic risk, cardiorespiratory fitness and physical activity in children. Anthropometric, biochemical parameters, cardiorespiratory fitness and accelerometry determined physical activity were assessed in 155 children (80 girls) from 10 to 14 years of age from Bedfordshire, UK. Participants were grouped into high and low TG/HDL ratio groups, according to published thresholds. MANCOVA and logistic regression were used in the analysis. Cardiometabolic risk factor levels were significantly higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio (p < 0.05). The odds of having high waist circumference (OR = 13.99; 95% CI 2.93, 69.25), elevated systolic blood pressure (5.27; 1.39, 20.01), high non-HDL cholesterol (19.47; 4.42, 85.81) and ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors (15.32; 3.10, 75.79) were higher in participants with a high TG/HDL ratio. The TG/HDL ratio values were significantly lower in those with high cardiorespiratory fitness (p = 0.01), but there was no association with physical activity. These findings support the use of the TG/HDL ratio to identify children with cardiometabolic risk factors who may be at risk of developing cardiometabolic disease. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sleep disturbances in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

PubMed Central

Poe, Sarah-Lucy; Brucato, Gary; Bruno, Nicolina; Arndt, Leigh Y.; Ben-David, Shelly; Gill, Kelly E.; Colibazzi, Tiziano; Kantrowitz, Joshua T.; Corcoran, Cheryl M.; Girgis, Ragy R.

2018-01-01

There has been recent interest in understanding the role that sleep disturbance plays in patients at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR). We assessed sleep disturbance in 194 CHR patients and 66 healthy control subjects and their relationship to symptoms (positive, negative and general functioning). Patients experienced significantly more sleep disturbance than healthy control subjects and their sleep disturbance was related to greater positive and negative symptoms and worse overall functioning. Targeting sleep disturbance in CHR individuals may provide alternative means of treating the CHR syndrome. PMID:28126579

Sleep disturbances in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Poe, Sarah-Lucy; Brucato, Gary; Bruno, Nicolina; Arndt, Leigh Y; Ben-David, Shelly; Gill, Kelly E; Colibazzi, Tiziano; Kantrowitz, Joshua T; Corcoran, Cheryl M; Girgis, Ragy R

2017-03-01

There has been recent interest in understanding the role that sleep disturbance plays in patients at Clinical High Risk for psychosis (CHR). We assessed sleep disturbance in 194 CHR patients and 66 healthy control subjects and their relationship to symptoms (positive, negative and general functioning). Patients experienced significantly more sleep disturbance than healthy control subjects and their sleep disturbance was related to greater positive and negative symptoms and worse overall functioning. Targeting sleep disturbance in CHR individuals may provide alternative means of treating the CHR syndrome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model

PubMed Central

Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

2013-01-01

Objectives To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. Design A cross-sectional survey. Setting Malawi Participants The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15–49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Interventions N/A Primary and secondary outcome measures Individual HIV status: positive or not. Results Findings from the Pearson χ2 and χ2 Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15–24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. Conclusions In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25–49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30–49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment. PMID:23793677

Identifying At-Risk Employees: Modeling Psychosocial Precursors of Potential Insider Threats

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Noonan, Christine F.

In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee's behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. To test the model's agreement with human resourcesmore » and management professionals, we conducted an experiment with positive results. If implemented in an operational setting, the model would be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.« less

Beyond the patient: the broader impact of genetic discrimination among individuals at risk of Huntington disease.

PubMed

Bombard, Yvonne; Palin, JoAnne; Friedman, Jan M; Veenstra, Gerry; Creighton, Susan; Bottorff, Joan L; Hayden, Michael R

2012-03-01

We aimed to address gaps in current understanding of the scope and impact of discrimination, by examining a cohort of individuals at-risk for Huntington disease (HD), to describe the prevalence of concern for oneself and one's family in multiple domains; strategies used to mitigate discrimination; and the extent to which concerns relate to experiences. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 293 individuals at-risk for HD (80% response rate); 167 respondents were genetically tested and 66 were not. Fear of discrimination was widespread (86%), particularly in the insurance, family and social settings. Approximately half of concerned individuals experienced discrimination (40-62%, depending on genetic status). Concern was associated with "keeping quiet" about one's risk of HD or "taking action to avoid" discrimination. Importantly, concern was highly distressing for some respondents (21% for oneself; 32% for relatives). Overall, concerned respondents with high education levels, who discovered their family history at a younger age, and those who were mutation-positive were more likely to report experiences of discrimination than others who were concerned. Concerns were rarely attributed to genetic test results alone. Concern about genetic discrimination is frequent among individuals at-risk of HD and spans many settings. It influences behavioral patterns and can result in high levels of self-rated distress, highlighting the need for practice and policy interventions. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

High miR-124-3p expression identifies smoking individuals susceptible to atherosclerosis.

PubMed

de Ronde, Maurice W J; Kok, Maayke G M; Moerland, Perry D; Van den Bossche, Jan; Neele, Annette E; Halliani, Amalia; van der Made, Ingeborg; de Winther, Menno P J; Meijers, Joost C M; Creemers, Esther E; Pinto-Sietsma, Sara-Joan

2017-08-01

The risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is twice as high among smoking individuals compared to non-smokers. Monocytes are involved in smoking-related atherosclerotic plaque formation. In this study, we investigated whether smokers with an increased risk of developing CVD can be identified on the basis of monocyte-derived miRNA expression levels. We performed a miRNA microarray experiment on isolated monocytes from smoking, former smoking and non-smoking individuals in a cohort of patients with premature CVD and healthy controls (Cohort I, n = 76). We found miR-124-3p to be heterogeneously expressed among all smoking individuals, whereas expression was low in non-smokers. Subsequently, RT-qPCR measurements on whole blood showed that among smoking individuals an increase in miR-124-3p is associated with an increased risk for advanced atherosclerotic disease (cohort II, n = 24) (OR 11.72 95% CI 1.09-126.53) and subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium score ≥ 80 th percentile, cohort III n = 138) (OR 2.71, 95% CI 1.05-7.01). This was not observed among former smokers or non-smoking individuals. Flow cytometric analysis demonstrated that high miR-124-3p expression was associated with upregulation of the monocyte surface markers CD45RA, CD29 and CD206, indicating an altered monocyte phenotype. Finally, overexpression of miR-124-3p resulted in an upregulation of CD206 surface expression on monocytes. High miR-124-3p expression is associated with an increased risk of subclinical atherosclerosis in smoking individuals and with an altered monocyte phenotype. This may suggest that miR-124-3p identifies which smoking individuals are susceptible to the atherogenic effects of smoking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

PubMed

Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

2015-09-01

Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by

The Relationship between Working Memory and Mathematical Problem Solving in Children at Risk and Not at Risk for Serious Math Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swanson, H. Lee; Beebe-Frankenberger, Margaret

2004-01-01

This study identified cognitive processes that underlie individual differences in working memory (WM) and mathematical problem-solution accuracy in elementary school children at risk and not at risk for serious math difficulties (SMD). A battery of tests was administered that assessed problem solving, achievement, and cognitive processing in…

Anal cytological lesions and HPV infection in individuals at increased risk for anal cancer.

PubMed

Donà, Maria Gabriella; Benevolo, Maria; Latini, Alessandra; Rollo, Francesca; Colafigli, Manuela; Frasca, Mirko; Zaccarelli, Mauro; Giglio, Amalia; Moretto, Domenico; Pescarmona, Edoardo; Cristaudo, Antonio; Giuliani, Massimo

2018-04-25

Anal cytology may be useful for evaluating lesions associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) in individuals at increased risk for anal cancer. Liquid-based cytology was used to assess anal cytological lesions among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men (MSM). The Linear Array HPV genotyping test was used for HPV detection. This cross-sectional study included 1021 MSM, of whom 388 were HIV-infected (38.0%). Anal cytological lesions (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or more severe [ASCUS+]) were observed in 32.5% and 53.2% of the HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively (P < .0001). The highest ASCUS + prevalence was observed among ≥45-year-old HIV-uninfected MSM (37.3%) and 25-to 29-year-old HIV-infected MSM (66.7%). High-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) peaked in ≥ 45-year-old HIV-uninfected subjects and 35- to 39-year-old HIV-infected subjects. Individuals with anal infections with high-risk (HR) HPV types were 3 to 4 times more likely to have an ASCUS + report. An HPV-16 and/or HPV-18 infection increased the odds of HSIL or more severe cytology (HSIL+) for HIV-infected MSM almost 4 times. MSM concurrently infected with HR and low-risk HPVs were significantly more likely to have low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or more severe cytology (LSIL+) than those infected with only HR types. No significant associations were found between cytological abnormalities and the HIV load and nadir and current CD4 + counts. The prevalence of anal cytological lesions is high in MSM, even in HIV-infected individuals treated with combined antiretroviral therapy. In these subjects, HSILs occur more frequently and at a younger age in comparison with HIV-uninfected counterparts. Specific diagnostic procedures should be implemented to manage individuals at increased risk for anal cancer with an abnormal anal Papanicolaou test. Cancer Cytopathol 2018. �

The risk of re-identification versus the need to identify individuals in rare disease research.

PubMed

Hansson, Mats G; Lochmüller, Hanns; Riess, Olaf; Schaefer, Franz; Orth, Michael; Rubinstein, Yaffa; Molster, Caron; Dawkins, Hugh; Taruscio, Domenica; Posada, Manuel; Woods, Simon

2016-11-01

There is a growing concern in the ethics literature and among policy makers that de-identification or coding of personal data and biospecimens is not sufficient for protecting research subjects from privacy invasions and possible breaches of confidentiality due to the possibility of unauthorized re-identification. At the same time, there is a need in medical science to be able to identify individual patients. In particular for rare disease research there is a special and well-documented need for research collaboration so that data and biosamples from multiple independent studies can be shared across borders. In this article, we identify the needs and arguments related to de-identification and re-identification of patients and research subjects and suggest how the different needs may be balanced within a framework of using unique encrypted identifiers.

The risk of re-identification versus the need to identify individuals in rare disease research

PubMed Central

Hansson, Mats G; Lochmüller, Hanns; Riess, Olaf; Schaefer, Franz; Orth, Michael; Rubinstein, Yaffa; Molster, Caron; Dawkins, Hugh; Taruscio, Domenica; Posada, Manuel; Woods, Simon

2016-01-01

There is a growing concern in the ethics literature and among policy makers that de-identification or coding of personal data and biospecimens is not sufficient for protecting research subjects from privacy invasions and possible breaches of confidentiality due to the possibility of unauthorized re-identification. At the same time, there is a need in medical science to be able to identify individual patients. In particular for rare disease research there is a special and well-documented need for research collaboration so that data and biosamples from multiple independent studies can be shared across borders. In this article, we identify the needs and arguments related to de-identification and re-identification of patients and research subjects and suggest how the different needs may be balanced within a framework of using unique encrypted identifiers. PMID:27222291

Participant selection for preventive Regenerative Medicine trials: ethical challenges of selecting individuals at risk.

PubMed

Niemansburg, Sophie L; Habets, Michelle G J L; Dhert, Wouter J A; van Delden, Johannes J M; Bredenoord, Annelien L

2015-11-01

The innovative field of Regenerative Medicine (RM) is expected to extend the possibilities of prevention or early treatment in healthcare. Increasingly, clinical trials will be developed for people at risk of disease to investigate these RM interventions. These individuals at risk are characterised by their susceptibility for developing clinically manifest disease in future due to the existence of degenerative abnormalities. So far, there has been little debate about the ethical appropriateness of including such individuals at risk in clinical trials. We discuss three main challenges of selecting this participant model for testing RM interventions: the challenge of achieving a proportional risk-benefit balance; complexities in the trial design in terms of follow-up and sample size; and the difficulty of obtaining informed consent due to the many uncertainties. We conclude that selecting the model is not ethically justifiable for first-in-man trials with RM interventions due to the high risks and uncertainties. However, the model can be ethically appropriate for testing the efficacy of RM interventions under the following conditions: interventions should be low risk; the degenerative abnormalities (and other risk factors) should be strongly related with disease within a short time frame; robust preclinical evidence of efficacy needs to be present; and the informed consent procedure should contain extra safeguards with regard to communication on uncertainties. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Neuroanatomical Predictors of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Lin, Ashleigh; Yung, Alison R.; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Nelson, Barnaby; Cropley, Vanessa L.; Velakoulis, Dennis; McGorry, Patrick D.; Pantelis, Christos; Wood, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Most individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to frank illness. Nevertheless, many have poor clinical outcomes and impaired psychosocial functioning. This study used voxel-based morphometry to investigate if baseline grey and white matter brain densities at identification as UHR were associated with functional outcome at medium- to long-term follow-up. Participants were help-seeking UHR individuals (n = 109, 54M:55F) who underwent magnetic resonance imaging at baseline; functional outcome was assessed an average of 9.2 years later. Primary analysis showed that lower baseline grey matter density, but not white matter density, in bilateral frontal and limbic areas, and left cerebellar declive were associated with poorer functional outcome (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale [SOFAS]). These findings were independent of transition to psychosis or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Similar regions were significantly associated with lower self-reported levels of social functioning and increased negative symptoms at follow-up. Exploratory analyses showed that lower baseline grey matter densities in middle and inferior frontal gyri were significantly associated with decline in Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score over follow-up. There was no association between baseline grey matter density and IQ or positive symptoms at follow-up. The current findings provide novel evidence that those with the poorest functional outcomes have the lowest grey matter densities at identification as UHR, regardless of transition status or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Replication and validation of these findings may allow for early identification of poor functional outcome and targeted interventions. PMID:27369472

Baseline grey matter volume of non-transitioned "ultra high risk" for psychosis individuals with and without attenuated psychotic symptoms at long-term follow-up.

PubMed

Cropley, Vanessa L; Lin, Ashleigh; Nelson, Barnaby; Reniers, Renate L E P; Yung, Alison R; Bartholomeusz, Cali F; Klauser, Paul; Velakoulis, Dennis; McGorry, Patrick; Wood, Stephen J; Pantelis, Christos

2016-06-01

Two thirds of individuals identified as ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to psychosis over the medium to long-term (non-transition; UHR-NT). Nevertheless, many of these individuals have persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS). The current study examined whether there were differences in baseline grey matter volume (i.e. at initial identification as UHR) in UHR-NT individuals whom had APS compared to those without APS (No-APS) at medium to long-term follow-up. Participants were help-seeking individuals who were identified as being at UHR for psychosis between 2 and 12years previously (mean=7.5). The sample consisted of 109 participants who underwent a Magnetic Resonance Imaging scan at baseline and who had not been observed to develop a psychotic disorder over the follow-up period (UHR-NT). Using voxel-based morphometry, baseline grey matter volume (GMV) was compared between participants with (N=30) and without (N=79) APS at follow-up. At baseline, the APS and No-APS groups were clinically indistinguishable. At follow-up, the APS group had significantly worse symptoms and impaired functioning. Individuals with APS had reduced baseline GMV in frontal, temporal, posterior and cingulate regions compared to those without APS at follow-up. Reduced GMV was associated with more severe positive, negative and depressive symptoms and lower global functioning in the combined UHR-NT cohort. These associations were independent of later APS outcome. This study found that differences in regional GMV are discernible at an early stage of UHR and may be specific to individuals who have APS and psychopathology at follow-up. Our findings suggest that lower GMV at baseline may confer neurobiological risk for later APS and/or increased psychopathology while the absence of these structural abnormalities might be protective. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CACNA1C risk variant affects facial emotion recognition in healthy individuals.

PubMed

Nieratschker, Vanessa; Brückmann, Christof; Plewnia, Christian

2015-11-27

Recognition and correct interpretation of facial emotion is essential for social interaction and communication. Previous studies have shown that impairments in this cognitive domain are common features of several psychiatric disorders. Recent association studies identified CACNA1C as one of the most promising genetic risk factors for psychiatric disorders and previous evidence suggests that the most replicated risk variant in CACNA1C (rs1006737) is affecting emotion recognition and processing. However, studies investigating the influence of rs1006737 on this intermediate phenotype in healthy subjects at the behavioral level are largely missing to date. Here, we applied the "Reading the Mind in the Eyes" test, a facial emotion recognition paradigm in a cohort of 92 healthy individuals to address this question. Whereas accuracy was not affected by genotype, CACNA1C rs1006737 risk-allele carries (AA/AG) showed significantly slower mean response times compared to individuals homozygous for the G-allele, indicating that healthy risk-allele carriers require more information to correctly identify a facial emotion. Our study is the first to provide evidence for an impairing behavioral effect of the CACNA1C risk variant rs1006737 on facial emotion recognition in healthy individuals and adds to the growing number of studies pointing towards CACNA1C as affecting intermediate phenotypes of psychiatric disorders.

Semantic memory activation in individuals at risk for developing Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Seidenberg, M; Guidotti, L; Nielson, K A; Woodard, J L; Durgerian, S; Antuono, P; Zhang, Q; Rao, S M

2009-08-25

To determine whether whole-brain, event-related fMRI can distinguish healthy older adults with known Alzheimer disease (AD) risk factors (family history, APOE epsilon4) from controls using a semantic memory task involving discrimination of famous from unfamiliar names. Sixty-nine cognitively asymptomatic adults were divided into 3 groups (n = 23 each) based on AD risk: 1) no family history, no epsilon4 allele (control [CON]); 2) family history, no epsilon4 allele (FH); and 3) family history and epsilon4 allele (FH+epsilon4). Separate hemodynamic response functions were extracted for famous and unfamiliar names using deconvolution analysis (correct trials only). Cognitively intact older adults with AD risk factors (FH and FH+epsilon4) exhibited greater activation in recognizing famous relative to unfamiliar names than a group without risk factors (CON), especially in the bilateral posterior cingulate/precuneus, bilateral temporoparietal junction, and bilateral prefrontal cortex. The increased activation was more apparent in the FH+epsilon4 than in the FH group. Unlike the 2 at-risk groups, the control group demonstrated greater activation for unfamiliar than familiar names, predominately in the supplementary motor area, bilateral precentral, left inferior frontal, right insula, precuneus, and angular gyrus. These results could not be attributed to differences in demographic variables, cerebral atrophy, episodic memory performance, global cognitive functioning, activities of daily living, or depression. Results demonstrate that a low-effort, high-accuracy semantic memory activation task is sensitive to Alzheimer disease risk factors in a dose-related manner. This increased activation in at-risk individuals may reflect a compensatory brain response to support task performance in otherwise asymptomatic older adults.

Spatial Working Memory Ability in Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Goghari, Vina M.; Brett, Caroline; Tabraham, Paul; Johns, Louise; Valmaggia, Lucia; Broome, Matthew; Woolley, James; Bramon, Elvira; Howes, Oliver

2014-01-01

The goal of this investigation was to clarify the nature of spatial working memory difficulties in individuals at ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis. We evaluated spatial working memory and intelligence in 96 individuals at UHR for psychosis, 28 patients with first episode psychosis (FEP), and 23 healthy controls. Fourteen UHR individuals developed a psychotic disorder during follow-up. Compared to controls, the UHR group was impaired in both the short-term maintenance of material and in the effective use of strategy, but not more immediate memory. These impairments were not as severe as those in the FEP group, as the UHR group performed better than the FEP group. A similar pattern of results was found for the intelligence measures. Discriminant function analyses demonstrated short-term maintenance of material significantly differentiated the UHR and healthy control groups even when accounting for full scale intelligence quotient (IQ); whereas full scale IQ significantly differentiated the UHR and FEP groups and FEP and control groups. Notably, within the UHR group, impaired spatial working memory performance was associated with lower global functioning, but not full scale IQ. The subgroup of UHR individuals who later developed psychosis was not significantly more impaired on any aspect of working memory performance than the group of UHR individuals who did not develop psychosis. Given, the relationship between spatial working memory deficits and functional outcome, these results indicate that cognitive remediation could be useful in individuals at UHR for psychosis to potentially improve functioning. PMID:24398256

Individual influences on lifestyle change to reduce vascular risk: a qualitative literature review

PubMed Central

Murray, Jenni; Honey, Stephanie; Hill, Kate; Craigs, Cheryl; House, Allan

2012-01-01

Background Management of cardiovascular risk includes adoption of healthy lifestyles. Uptake and completion rates for lifestyle programmes are low and many barriers and facilitators to lifestyle behaviour change have been reported in the literature. Clarity on which barriers and facilitators to target during consultations in primary care may support a more systematic approach to lifestyle behaviour change in those at high risk of cardiovascular events. Aim To identify the main barriers and facilitators to lifestyle behaviour change in individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events. Design A content synthesis of the qualitative literature reporting patient-level influences on lifestyle change. Method Qualitative studies involving patients at high risk of cardiovascular events were identified through electronic searching and screening against predefined selection criteria. Factors (reported influences) were extracted and, using a clustering technique, organised into categories that were then linked to key themes through relationship mapping. Results A total of 348 factors were extracted from 33 studies. Factors were organised into 20 categories and from these categories five key themes were identified: emotions, beliefs, information and communication, friends and family support, and cost/transport. Conclusion It is possible to organise the large number of self-reported individual influences on lifestyle behaviours into a small number of themes. Further research is needed to clarify which of these patient-level barriers and facilitators are the best predictors of uptake and participation in programmes aimed at helping people to change lifestyle. PMID:22687232

Inpatient Glucose Values: Determining the Nondiabetic Range and Use in Identifying Patients at High Risk for Diabetes.

PubMed

Rhee, Mary K; Safo, Sandra E; Jackson, Sandra L; Xue, Wenqiong; Olson, Darin E; Long, Qi; Barb, Diana; Haw, J Sonya; Tomolo, Anne M; Phillips, Lawrence S

2018-04-01

Many individuals with diabetes remain undiagnosed, leading to delays in treatment and higher risk for subsequent diabetes complications. Despite recommendations for diabetes screening in high-risk groups, the optimal approach is not known. We evaluated the utility of inpatient glucose levels as an opportunistic screening tool for identifying patients at high risk for diabetes. We retrospectively examined 462,421 patients in the US Department of Veterans Affairs healthcare system, hospitalized on medical/surgical services in 2000-2010, for ≥3 days, with ≥2 inpatient random plasma glucose (RPG) measurements. All had continuity of care: ≥1 primary care visit and ≥1 glucose measurement within 2 years before hospitalization and yearly for ≥3 years after discharge. Glucose levels during hospitalization and incidence of diabetes within 3 years after discharge in patients without diabetes were evaluated. Patients had a mean age of 65.0 years, body mass index of 29.9 kg/m 2 , and were 96% male, 71% white, and 18% black. Pre-existing diabetes was present in 39.4%, 1.3% were diagnosed during hospitalization, 8.1% were diagnosed 5 years after discharge, and 51.3% were never diagnosed (NonDM). The NonDM group had the lowest mean hospital RPG value (112 mg/dL [6.2 mmol/L]). Having at least 2 RPG values >140 mg/dL (>7.8 mmol/L), the 95th percentile of NonDM hospital glucose, provided 81% specificity for identifying incident diabetes within 3 years after discharge. Screening for diabetes could be considered in patients with at least 2 hospital glucose values at/above the 95th percentile of the nondiabetic range (141 mg/dL [7.8 mmol/L]). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Risk-Taking: Individual and Family Interests.

PubMed

Iltis, Ana S

2015-08-01

Decisions regarding clinical procedures or research participation typically require the informed consent of individuals. When individuals are unable to give consent, the informed permission of a legally authorized representative or surrogate is required. Although many proposed procedures are aimed primarily at benefiting the individual, some are not. I argue that, particularly when individuals are asked to assume risks primarily or exclusively for the benefit of others, family members ought to be engaged in the informed consent process. Examples of procedures in which individuals are asked to assume risks primarily or exclusively for the benefit of others include living organ donation and research participation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Journal of Medicine and Philosophy Inc. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Prevention of pressure sores by identifying patients at risk.

PubMed Central

Andersen, K E; Jensen, O; Kvorning, S A; Bach, E

1982-01-01

The risk of pressure sores developing in patients admitted with acute conditions was assessed by a simple risk score system based on age, reduced mobility, incontinence, pronounced emaciation, redness over bony prominences, unconsciousness, dehydration, and paralysis in a prospective clinical study. During seven months in 1977, 600 of 3571 patients were classified as at risk. Of these 35 (5.8%) developed sores compared with five (0.2%) of those not at risk. The results of this study compared with those over the same period in 1976 show that close observation of at-risk patients and early detection of pressure sores prevents their development. PMID:6803980

The Readmission Risk Flag: Using the Electronic Health Record to Automatically Identify Patients at Risk for 30-day Readmission

PubMed Central

Baillie, Charles A.; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C. William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A.

2015-01-01

Background Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. Objective To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system’s EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Design Retrospective and prospective cohort. Setting Healthcare system consisting of three hospitals. Patients All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. Interventions An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Measures Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Results Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a c-statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%) and c-statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. Conclusions An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. PMID:24227707

The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

PubMed

Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

2013-12-01

Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Individualized Risk Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Parvizi, Javad; Huang, Ronald; Rezapoor, Maryam; Bagheri, Behrad; Maltenfort, Mitchell G

2016-09-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is a potentially fatal complication. Currently, a standard protocol for postoperative VTE prophylaxis is used that makes little distinction between patients at varying risks of VTE. We sought to develop a simple scoring system identifying patients at higher risk for VTE in whom more potent anticoagulation may need to be administered. Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample data, 1,721,806 patients undergoing TJA were identified, among whom 15,775 (0.9%) developed VTE after index arthroplasty. Among the cohort, all known potential risk factors for VTE were assessed. An initial logistic regression model using potential predictors for VTE was performed. Predictors with little contribution or poor predictive power were pruned from the data, and the model was refit. After pruning of variables that had little to no contribution to VTE risk, using the logistic regression, all independent predictors of VTE after TJA were identified in the data. Relative weights for each factor were determined. Hypercoagulability, metastatic cancer, stroke, sepsis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had some of the highest points. Patients with any of these conditions had risk for postoperative VTE that exceeded the 3% rate. Based on the model, an iOS (iPhone operating system) application was developed (VTEstimator) that could be used to assign patients into low or high risk for VTE after TJA. We believe individualization of VTE prophylaxis after TJA can improve the efficacy of preventing VTE while minimizing untoward risks associated with the administration of anticoagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Healthy eating opinion survey for individuals at risk for cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Mark, Amy E; Riley, Dana L; McDonnell, Lisa A; Pipe, Andrew L; Reid, Robert D

2014-08-01

To develop and evaluate the validity and reliability of a questionnaire to measure intentions and beliefs about healthy eating in individuals at risk for coronary heart disease. The Healthy Eating Opinion Survey was developed using the theory of planned behavior. An open-ended elicitation questionnaire was administered to 21 participants, and a 46-item questionnaire was developed for further testing. Test-retest reliability of each question on the survey was assessed by calculating the correlation coefficients between the responses over a 2- week period in 17 participants. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha, and factor analysis was used to assess the construct validity of the questionnaire in a sample of 388 participants. The responses to the elicitation questions were used to develop behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and control beliefs questions for the final questionnaire. Test-retest reliability ranged from 0.22-0.90, with the majority (89%) of correlations being moderate to strong. Internal consistency was good, with Cronbach's alpha ranging from 0.74-0.92. All intentions questions loaded onto a single factor; attitude questions loaded onto two factors; subjective norm questions loaded onto two factors; perceived behavioral control questions loaded onto one factor; behavioral beliefs questions loaded onto one factor; normative beliefs questions loaded onto one factor; and control beliefs questions loaded onto one factor. The questionnaire was found to be a reliable, valid questionnaire to assess beliefs and intentions toward eating a healthy diet in individuals at risk for coronary heart disease.

Analysis of individual risk belief structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.E.; Travis, C.B.; Arrowood, L.

An interactive computer program developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is presented as a methodology to model individualized belief structures. The logic and general strategy of the model is presented for two risk topics: AIDs and toxic waste. Subjects identified desirable and undesirable consequences for each topic and formulated an associative rule linking topic and consequence in either a causal or correlational framework. Likelihood estimates, generated by subjects in several formats (probability, odds statements, etc.), constituted one outcome measure. Additionally, source of belief (personal experience, news media, etc.) and perceived personal and societal impact are reviewed. Briefly, subjects believe thatmore » AIDs causes significant emotional problems, and to a lesser degree, physical health problems whereas toxic waste causes significant environmental problems.« less

Multiple Changes to Reusable Solid Rocket Motors, Identifying Hidden Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.; McCann, Bradley Q.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) baseline is subject to various changes. Changes are necessary due to safety and quality improvements, environmental considerations, vendor changes, obsolescence issues, etc. The RSRM program has a goal to test changes on full-scale static test motors prior to flight due to the unique RSRM operating environment. Each static test motor incorporates several significant changes and numerous minor changes. Flight motors often implement multiple changes simultaneously. While each change is individually verified and assessed, the potential for changes to interact constitutes additional hidden risk. Mitigating this risk depends upon identification of potential interactions. Therefore, the ATK Thiokol Propulsion System Safety organization initiated the use of a risk interaction matrix to identify potential interactions that compound risk. Identifying risk interactions supports flight and test motor decisions. Uncovering hidden risks of a full-scale static test motor gives a broader perspective of the changes being tested. This broader perspective compels the program to focus on solutions for implementing RSRM changes with minimal/mitigated risk. This paper discusses use of a change risk interaction matrix to identify test challenges and uncover hidden risks to the RSRM program.

Neuroanatomical Predictors of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis.

PubMed

Reniers, Renate L E P; Lin, Ashleigh; Yung, Alison R; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Nelson, Barnaby; Cropley, Vanessa L; Velakoulis, Dennis; McGorry, Patrick D; Pantelis, Christos; Wood, Stephen J

2017-03-01

Most individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to frank illness. Nevertheless, many have poor clinical outcomes and impaired psychosocial functioning. This study used voxel-based morphometry to investigate if baseline grey and white matter brain densities at identification as UHR were associated with functional outcome at medium- to long-term follow-up. Participants were help-seeking UHR individuals (n = 109, 54M:55F) who underwent magnetic resonance imaging at baseline; functional outcome was assessed an average of 9.2 years later. Primary analysis showed that lower baseline grey matter density, but not white matter density, in bilateral frontal and limbic areas, and left cerebellar declive were associated with poorer functional outcome (Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale [SOFAS]). These findings were independent of transition to psychosis or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Similar regions were significantly associated with lower self-reported levels of social functioning and increased negative symptoms at follow-up. Exploratory analyses showed that lower baseline grey matter densities in middle and inferior frontal gyri were significantly associated with decline in Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score over follow-up. There was no association between baseline grey matter density and IQ or positive symptoms at follow-up. The current findings provide novel evidence that those with the poorest functional outcomes have the lowest grey matter densities at identification as UHR, regardless of transition status or persistence of the at-risk mental state. Replication and validation of these findings may allow for early identification of poor functional outcome and targeted interventions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identifying the women at risk of antenatal anxiety and depression: A systematic review.

PubMed

Biaggi, Alessandra; Conroy, Susan; Pawlby, Susan; Pariante, Carmine M

2016-02-01

Pregnancy is a time of increased vulnerability for the development of anxiety and depression. This systematic review aims to identify the main risk factors involved in the onset of antenatal anxiety and depression. A systematic literature analysis was conducted, using PubMed, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library. Original papers were included if they were written in English and published between 1st January 2003 and 31st August 2015, while literature reviews and meta-analyses were consulted regardless of publication date. A final number of 97 papers were selected. The most relevant factors associated with antenatal depression or anxiety were: lack of partner or of social support; history of abuse or of domestic violence; personal history of mental illness; unplanned or unwanted pregnancy; adverse events in life and high perceived stress; present/past pregnancy complications; and pregnancy loss. The review does not include a meta-analysis, which may have added additional information about the differential impact of each risk factor. Moreover, it does not specifically examine factors that may influence different types of anxiety disorders, or the recurrence or persistence of depression or anxiety from pregnancy to the postpartum period. The results show the complex aetiology of antenatal depression and anxiety. The administration of a screening tool to identify women at risk of anxiety and depression during pregnancy should be universal practice in order to promote the long-term wellbeing of mothers and babies, and the knowledge of specific risk factors may help creating such screening tool targeting women at higher risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinically significant personality traits in individuals at high risk of developing psychosis.

PubMed

Sevilla-Llewellyn-Jones, Julia; Camino, Gustavo; Russo, Debra A; Painter, Michelle; Montejo, Angel L; Ochoa, Susana; Jones, Peter B; Perez, Jesus

2018-03-01

It is still unclear to what extent personality may influence the development of psychosis. We aimed to explore significant personality traits in individuals at high-risk (HR) for psychosis. Personalities of forty HR individuals and a matched sample of 40 healthy volunteers (HVs) were evaluated with the Millon Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI-III). They were also assessed with the Positive and Negative Symptoms Scale (PANSS), Beck Depression and Anxiety Inventories (BDI-II and BAI), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI 6.0.0). Fisher's exact test was employed to compare frequency of traits. Mann-Whitney U test and logistic regression were used to establish relationships between traits and symptoms, and the effect of age, sex and symptoms on such traits. Most HR individuals (97.5%) had at least one significant trait; 75% had personality disorders, mainly depressive, borderline or schizotypal. Only histrionic and narcissistic traits were more prevalent in HVs. Negative symptoms were related to schizoid and paranoid traits. Depression was more severe with borderline traits. Most HR individuals (67.6%) had more than one DSM-IV Axis I diagnosis, mainly depressive/anxiety disorders. Transition rate was low (5%). Certain personality profiles may not be markers for conversions to psychosis but contribute to high morbidity in HR individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Testing as a Tool to Identify Horses with or at Risk for Ocular Disorders.

PubMed

Bellone, Rebecca R

2017-12-01

Advances in equine genetics and genomics resources have enabled the understanding of some inherited ocular disorders and ocular manifestations. These ocular disorders include congenital stationary night blindness, equine recurrent uveitis, multiple congenital ocular anomalies, and squamous cell carcinoma. Genetic testing can identify horses with or at risk for disease and thus can assist in clinical management. In addition, genetic testing can identify horses that are carriers and thus can inform breeding decisions. Use of genetic tests in management and breeding decisions should aid in reducing the incidence of these disorders and improving the outcomes for horses at highest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simple Test of Manual Dexterity Can Help to Identify Persons at High Risk for Neurodegenerative Diseases in the Community.

PubMed

Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; Koudstaal, Peter J; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-01-01

Early identification of individuals at high risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases is essential for timely preventive intervention. However, simple methods that can be used for risk assessment in general practice are lacking. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used the Purdue Pegboard Test (PPT) to assess manual dexterity in 4,856 persons (median age 70 years, 58% women) free of parkinsonism and dementia between 2000 and 2004. We followed these persons until January 1, 2012 for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases (defined as first diagnosis of parkinsonism or dementia). We determined the association of PPT scores with incident neurodegenerative disease, adjusting for age, sex, study cohort, level of education, smoking, preferred hand, parental history, memory complaints, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Furthermore, we determined the incremental predictive value of PPT, expressed as change in risk classification and discrimination. During follow-up (median 9.2 years), 277 participants were diagnosed with a neurodegenerative disease (227 with dementia and 50 with parkinsonism). Lower PPT scores were associated with higher risk of incident neurodegenerative diseases (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.41) and improved discrimination of incident neurodegenerative diseases. We also observed significant associations of PPT scores separately with incident dementia (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.39]) and incident parkinsonism (HR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67). A rapid, nonlaboratory test of manual dexterity may help to identify persons at high risk for neurodegenerative diseases. This highlights the importance of motor function in the preclinical phase of both dementia and parkinsonism and may aid in selecting individuals for refined screening and neuroprotective trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e

Individualized pharmacokinetic risk assessment for development of diabetes in high risk population.

PubMed

Gupta, N; Al-Huniti, N H; Veng-Pedersen, P

2007-10-01

The objective of this study is to propose a non-parametric pharmacokinetic prediction model that addresses the individualized risk of developing type-2 diabetes in subjects with family history of type-2 diabetes. All selected 191 healthy subjects had both parents as type-2 diabetic. Glucose was administered intravenously (0.5 g/kg body weight) and 13 blood samples taken at specified times were analyzed for plasma insulin and glucose concentrations. All subjects were followed for an average of 13-14 years for diabetic or normal (non-diabetic) outcome. The new logistic regression model predicts the development of diabetes based on body mass index and only one blood sample at 90 min analyzed for insulin concentration. Our model correctly identified 4.5 times more subjects (54% versus 11.6%) predicted to develop diabetes and more than twice the subjects (99% versus 46.4%) predicted not to develop diabetes compared to current non-pharmacokinetic probability estimates for development of type-2 diabetes. Our model can be useful for individualized prediction of development of type-2 diabetes in subjects with family history of type-2 diabetes. This improved prediction may be an important mediating factor for better perception of risk and may result in an improved intervention.

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci

PubMed Central

Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D.; Chen, Xiao Qing; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E.; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A.; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N.; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J.; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L.; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Bojesen, Stig E.; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W.; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y.; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D.; Castelao, Jose E.; Chan, Tsun L.; Cheng, Ting-Yuan David; Chia, Kee Seng; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L.; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M.; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B.; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F.; Dörk, Thilo; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M.; Ekici, Arif B.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A.; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M.; García-Sáenz, José A.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G.; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S.; Goldgar, David E.; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I.; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A.; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N.; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hoover, Robert N.; Hopper, John L.; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M.; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J.; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I.; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A.; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Marchand, Loic Le; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Chuen Neng; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P.; Ma, Edmond S.K.; MacInnis, Robert J.; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E.; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Mohd Taib, Nur Aishah; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F.; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Olson, Janet E.; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V. Shane; Park, Sue K.; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I.A.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofieva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S.; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J. Th.; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P.; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J.; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J.; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E.; Shrubsole, Martha J.; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C.; Spinelli, John J.; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O.; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A.; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H.; Terry, Mary Beth; Tessier, Daniel C.; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A.E.M.; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J.; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M.W.; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R.; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H.; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R.; Yip, Cheng Har; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R.; Antoniou, Antonis C.; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L.; Amos, Christopher I.; Couch, Fergus J.; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J.; Milne, Roger L.; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Dunning, Alison M.; Edwards, Stacey L.; Bader, Gary D.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F.

2017-01-01

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes such as BRCA1 and many common, mainly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. We report results from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry1. We identified 65 new loci associated with overall breast cancer at p<5x10-8. The majority of credible risk SNPs in the new loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in-silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all SNPs in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the utility of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention. PMID:29059683

Classroom Dynamics and Young Children Identified as At Risk for the Development of Serious Emotional Disturbance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lago-Delello, Ellie

This study examined differences between kindergarten and first-grade children identified as at risk (AR) or not at risk (NAR) for the development of severe emotional disturbance on selected factors of classroom dynamics. Screening, using the Systematic Screening for Behavior Disorders measure, of all 628 kindergarten and first-grade children at…

Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

2017-01-01

Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

Association analysis identifies 65 new breast cancer risk loci.

PubMed

Michailidou, Kyriaki; Lindström, Sara; Dennis, Joe; Beesley, Jonathan; Hui, Shirley; Kar, Siddhartha; Lemaçon, Audrey; Soucy, Penny; Glubb, Dylan; Rostamianfar, Asha; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Tyrer, Jonathan; Dicks, Ed; Lee, Andrew; Wang, Zhaoming; Allen, Jamie; Keeman, Renske; Eilber, Ursula; French, Juliet D; Qing Chen, Xiao; Fachal, Laura; McCue, Karen; McCart Reed, Amy E; Ghoussaini, Maya; Carroll, Jason S; Jiang, Xia; Finucane, Hilary; Adams, Marcia; Adank, Muriel A; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia N; Arndt, Volker; Aronson, Kristan J; Arun, Banu; Auer, Paul L; Bacot, François; Barrdahl, Myrto; Baynes, Caroline; Beckmann, Matthias W; Behrens, Sabine; Benitez, Javier; Bermisheva, Marina; Bernstein, Leslie; Blomqvist, Carl; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Bojesen, Stig E; Bonanni, Bernardo; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Brand, Judith S; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brennan, Paul; Brenner, Hermann; Brinton, Louise; Broberg, Per; Brock, Ian W; Broeks, Annegien; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Brucker, Sara Y; Brüning, Thomas; Burwinkel, Barbara; Butterbach, Katja; Cai, Qiuyin; Cai, Hui; Caldés, Trinidad; Canzian, Federico; Carracedo, Angel; Carter, Brian D; Castelao, Jose E; Chan, Tsun L; David Cheng, Ting-Yuan; Seng Chia, Kee; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Christiansen, Hans; Clarke, Christine L; Collée, Margriet; Conroy, Don M; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Cornelissen, Sten; Cox, David G; Cox, Angela; Cross, Simon S; Cunningham, Julie M; Czene, Kamila; Daly, Mary B; Devilee, Peter; Doheny, Kimberly F; Dörk, Thilo; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dumont, Martine; Durcan, Lorraine; Dwek, Miriam; Eccles, Diana M; Ekici, Arif B; Eliassen, A Heather; Ellberg, Carolina; Elvira, Mingajeva; Engel, Christoph; Eriksson, Mikael; Fasching, Peter A; Figueroa, Jonine; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Fletcher, Olivia; Flyger, Henrik; Fritschi, Lin; Gaborieau, Valerie; Gabrielson, Marike; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gapstur, Susan M; García-Sáenz, José A; Gaudet, Mia M; Georgoulias, Vassilios; Giles, Graham G; Glendon, Gord; Goldberg, Mark S; Goldgar, David E; González-Neira, Anna; Grenaker Alnæs, Grethe I; Grip, Mervi; Gronwald, Jacek; Grundy, Anne; Guénel, Pascal; Haeberle, Lothar; Hahnen, Eric; Haiman, Christopher A; Håkansson, Niclas; Hamann, Ute; Hamel, Nathalie; Hankinson, Susan; Harrington, Patricia; Hart, Steven N; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Hartman, Mikael; Hein, Alexander; Heyworth, Jane; Hicks, Belynda; Hillemanns, Peter; Ho, Dona N; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Hooning, Maartje J; Hoover, Robert N; Hopper, John L; Hou, Ming-Feng; Hsiung, Chia-Ni; Huang, Guanmengqian; Humphreys, Keith; Ishiguro, Junko; Ito, Hidemi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Iwata, Hiroji; Jakubowska, Anna; Janni, Wolfgang; John, Esther M; Johnson, Nichola; Jones, Kristine; Jones, Michael; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kabisch, Maria; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Kang, Daehee; Kasuga, Yoshio; Kerin, Michael J; Khan, Sofia; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Kiiski, Johanna I; Kim, Sung-Won; Knight, Julia A; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kristensen, Vessela N; Krüger, Ute; Kwong, Ava; Lambrechts, Diether; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, Eunjung; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jong Won; Neng Lee, Chuen; Lejbkowicz, Flavio; Li, Jingmei; Lilyquist, Jenna; Lindblom, Annika; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lo, Wing-Yee; Loibl, Sibylle; Long, Jirong; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Lubinski, Jan; Luccarini, Craig; Lux, Michael P; Ma, Edmond S K; MacInnis, Robert J; Maishman, Tom; Makalic, Enes; Malone, Kathleen E; Kostovska, Ivana Maleva; Mannermaa, Arto; Manoukian, Siranoush; Manson, JoAnn E; Margolin, Sara; Mariapun, Shivaani; Martinez, Maria Elena; Matsuo, Keitaro; Mavroudis, Dimitrios; McKay, James; McLean, Catriona; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Meindl, Alfons; Menéndez, Primitiva; Menon, Usha; Meyer, Jeffery; Miao, Hui; Miller, Nicola; Taib, Nur Aishah Mohd; Muir, Kenneth; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Mulot, Claire; Neuhausen, Susan L; Nevanlinna, Heli; Neven, Patrick; Nielsen, Sune F; Noh, Dong-Young; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Norman, Aaron; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Olson, Janet E; Olsson, Håkan; Olswold, Curtis; Orr, Nick; Pankratz, V Shane; Park, Sue K; Park-Simon, Tjoung-Won; Lloyd, Rachel; Perez, Jose I A; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peto, Julian; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Pinchev, Mila; Plaseska-Karanfilska, Dijana; Prentice, Ross; Presneau, Nadege; Prokofyeva, Darya; Pugh, Elizabeth; Pylkäs, Katri; Rack, Brigitte; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Nazneen; Rennert, Gadi; Rennert, Hedy S; Rhenius, Valerie; Romero, Atocha; Romm, Jane; Ruddy, Kathryn J; Rüdiger, Thomas; Rudolph, Anja; Ruebner, Matthias; Rutgers, Emiel J T; Saloustros, Emmanouil; Sandler, Dale P; Sangrajrang, Suleeporn; Sawyer, Elinor J; Schmidt, Daniel F; Schmutzler, Rita K; Schneeweiss, Andreas; Schoemaker, Minouk J; Schumacher, Fredrick; Schürmann, Peter; Scott, Rodney J; Scott, Christopher; Seal, Sheila; Seynaeve, Caroline; Shah, Mitul; Sharma, Priyanka; Shen, Chen-Yang; Sheng, Grace; Sherman, Mark E; Shrubsole, Martha J; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Smeets, Ann; Sohn, Christof; Southey, Melissa C; Spinelli, John J; Stegmaier, Christa; Stewart-Brown, Sarah; Stone, Jennifer; Stram, Daniel O; Surowy, Harald; Swerdlow, Anthony; Tamimi, Rulla; Taylor, Jack A; Tengström, Maria; Teo, Soo H; Beth Terry, Mary; Tessier, Daniel C; Thanasitthichai, Somchai; Thöne, Kathrin; Tollenaar, Rob A E M; Tomlinson, Ian; Tong, Ling; Torres, Diana; Truong, Thérèse; Tseng, Chiu-Chen; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Ursin, Giske; Untch, Michael; Vachon, Celine; van Asperen, Christi J; Van Den Berg, David; van den Ouweland, Ans M W; van der Kolk, Lizet; van der Luijt, Rob B; Vincent, Daniel; Vollenweider, Jason; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Weinberg, Clarice R; Wendt, Camilla; Whittemore, Alice S; Wildiers, Hans; Willett, Walter; Winqvist, Robert; Wolk, Alicja; Wu, Anna H; Xia, Lucy; Yamaji, Taiki; Yang, Xiaohong R; Har Yip, Cheng; Yoo, Keun-Young; Yu, Jyh-Cherng; Zheng, Wei; Zheng, Ying; Zhu, Bin; Ziogas, Argyrios; Ziv, Elad; Lakhani, Sunil R; Antoniou, Antonis C; Droit, Arnaud; Andrulis, Irene L; Amos, Christopher I; Couch, Fergus J; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hall, Per; Hunter, David J; Milne, Roger L; García-Closas, Montserrat; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Chanock, Stephen J; Dunning, Alison M; Edwards, Stacey L; Bader, Gary D; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Simard, Jacques; Kraft, Peter; Easton, Douglas F

2017-11-02

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10 -8 . The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

Importance of tangible physical changes for quality of life improvements of type 2 diabetic and at-risk individuals involved in exercise intervention A quasi-experimental design.

PubMed

Jabbour, Georges; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Beliveau, Louise; Brochu, Martin

2016-01-01

1) To document quality of life (QOL) changes in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and at-risk individuals who took part in the DiabetAction program and 2) to determine if changes in the QOL were associated with program attendance. QOL (SF-36 questionnaire), physical activity (PA) level, body weight, skinfold thickness, aerobic capacity and handgrip strength were measured before and after the 10-week intervention in 15 T2D and 14 at-risk individuals. Physical and mental components of QOL and 6 out of 8 domains of QOL were significantly improved in T2D and at-risk individuals after the intervention. Four significant correlations were identified: physical functioning domain with skinfolds (r = – 0.56) and aerobic capacity (r = 0.49), social functioning domain with handgrip strength (r = 0.43) and the physical health summary measure with body weight (r = – 0.45). QOL was significantly improved after the DiabetAction program. Also, PA intervention appears to impact QOL to a larger extent when participants experience changes in body composition and fitness.

Relationship between cognitive insight and attenuated delusional symptoms in individuals with at-risk mental state.

PubMed

Uchida, Tomohiro; Matsumoto, Kazunori; Ito, Fumiaki; Ohmuro, Noriyuki; Miyakoshi, Tetsuo; Ueno, Takashi; Matsuoka, Hiroo

2014-06-30

Cognitive insight, defined as the ability to evaluate and correct one׳s own distorted beliefs and misinterpretations, is hypothesized to contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms. We investigated cognitive insight in individuals with at-risk mental state (ARMS), which is associated with a clinically high risk of psychosis. Sixty individuals with ARMS were compared with 200 healthy controls in terms of cognitive insight measured using the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale. We also investigated the relationship between cognitive insight and attenuated delusional symptoms. In addition, we examined differences in the cognitive insight of individuals with ARMS with or without near-threshold delusional symptoms and differences in the cognitive insight of individuals with ARMS with or without later transition to psychosis. The results showed that individuals with ARMS exhibited higher self-certainty than healthy controls, indicating impairments in cognitive insight in the former. More importantly, our results revealed that self-certainty was correlated with attenuated delusional symptoms and that individuals with ARMS who had near threshold delusional symptoms had higher self-certainty. These findings indicate that overconfidence in one׳s own beliefs or judgments might be related to the formation and maintenance of attenuated delusions in individuals with ARMS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors associated with current intimate partner violence at individual and relationship levels: a cross-sectional study among married rural migrant women in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Tu, Xiaowen; Lou, Chaohua

2017-01-01

Objective To identify individual and relationship risk factors associated with current intimate partner violence (IPV) against married rural migrant women in Shanghai, China. Design Cross-sectional survey. Setting Two subdistricts of one administrative district, Shanghai, China. Participants A total of 958 married rural migrant women of reproductive age were selected using a community-based two-stage cluster sampling method in April and May of 2010. Outcome measures Data were collected using a modified questionnaire based on an instrument from the WHO Multi-country Study on Women’s Health and Domestic Violence against Women. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% CI from a multivariable logistic regression model were estimated to identify individual and relationship risk factors associated with different types of violence in the past 12 months. Results Women’s low financial autonomy was associated with all types of violence (AORs ranged from 1.98 to 7.89, p<0.05). Quarrelling with husband was a very strong risk factor (AORs >6, p<0.05) for both emotional violence and any violence. Experience of job change in the past year (AOR=4.03, 95% CI 1.57 to 10.35) and history of husband being abused (AOR=4.67, 95% CI 2.17 to 7.69) were strongly associated with physical or sexual violence. Conclusion Women’s low financial autonomy and unstable employment status at an individual level, quarrelling with husband and history of husband beaten by family members at a relationship level were identified as the most robust risk factors for IPV among married rural migrant women. Efforts to prevent IPV among this population should be made to involve both women and their husbands, with a focus on improving financial autonomy and employment status of women, promoting problem-solving and interaction skills of the couples and changing their knowledge and attitudes towards gender norms and IPV. PMID:28385911

School-based Screening to Identify Children At Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Barriers and Implications

PubMed Central

Barry, Tammy D.; Sturner, Raymond A.; Seymour, Karen; Howard, Barbara H.; McGoron, Lucy; Bergmann, Paul; Kent, Ronald; Sullivan, Casey; Tomeny, Theodore S.; Pierce, Jessica S.; Coin, Kristen L.; Goodlad, James K.; Werle, Nichole

2014-01-01

This report describes a school-based screening project to improve early identification of children at risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and communicate these concerns to parents, recommending that they contact their child’s primary care provider (PCP). Of 17,440 eligible children in first through fifth grades in five school districts, 47.0% of parents provided required written consent, and teachers completed 70.4% of the online screeners (using the Vanderbilt AD/HD Diagnostic Teacher Rating Scale). Of 5,772 screeners completed, 18.1% of children (n = 1,044) were identified as at risk. Parents of at-risk children were contacted to explain risk status and recommended to visit their child’s PCP for further evaluation. It was not possible to contact 39.1% of parents of at-risk children. Of the 636 parents of at-risk children who could be contacted, 53.1% (n = 338) verbally accepted the recommendation to follow-up with their PCP, which was not related to ADHD symptom severity. Parents of children with IEPs or related services were more likely to accept the recommendation to visit the PCP. Our exploration of the potential for school-based screening for ADHD identified a number of barriers to successful execution, but the data also indicated that this is an important problem to address. PMID:27642209

Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

PubMed

Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

2014-05-22

New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

Neuroanatomical and Symptomatic Sex Differences in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis.

PubMed

Guma, Elisa; Devenyi, Gabriel A; Malla, Ashok; Shah, Jai; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Pruessner, Marita

2017-01-01

Sex differences have been widely observed in clinical presentation, functional outcome and neuroanatomy in individuals with a first-episode of psychosis, and chronic patients suffering from schizophrenia. However, little is known about sex differences in the high-risk stages for psychosis. The present study investigated sex differences in cortical and subcortical neuroanatomy in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and healthy controls (CTL), and the relationship between anatomy and clinical symptoms in males at CHR. Magnetic resonance images were collected in 26 individuals at CHR (13 men) and 29 CTLs (15 men) to determine total and regional brain volumes and morphology, cortical thickness, and surface area (SA). Clinical symptoms were assessed with the brief psychiatric rating scale. Significant sex-by-diagnosis interactions were observed with opposite directions of effect in male and female CHR subjects relative to their same-sex controls in multiple cortical and subcortical areas. The right postcentral, left superior parietal, inferior parietal supramarginal, and angular gyri [<5% false discovery rate (FDR)] were thicker in male and thinner in female CHR subjects compared with their same-sex CTLs. The same pattern was observed in the right superior parietal gyrus SA at the regional and vertex level. Using a recently developed surface-based morphology pipeline, we observed sex-specific shape differences in the left hippocampus (<5% FDR) and amygdala (<10% FDR). Negative symptom burden was significantly higher in male compared with female CHR subjects ( p  = 0.04) and was positively associated with areal expansion of the left amygdala in males (<5% FDR). Some limitations of the study include the sample size, and data acquisition at 1.5 T. This study demonstrates neuroanatomical sex differences in CHR subjects, which may be associated with variations in symptomatology in men and women with psychotic symptoms.

Individual heterogeneity and identifiability in capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.

2004-01-01

Individual heterogeneity in detection probabilities is a far more serious problem for capture-recapture modeling than has previously been recognized. In this note, I illustrate that population size is not an identifiable parameter under the general closed population mark-recapture model Mh. The problem of identifiability is obvious if the population includes individuals with pi = 0, but persists even when it is assumed that individual detection probabilities are bounded away from zero. Identifiability may be attained within parametric families of distributions for pi, but not among parametric families of distributions. Consequently, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability, capture-recapture analysis is strongly model dependent.

HIV Prevalence and Risks Associated with HIV Infection among Transgender Individuals in Cambodia.

PubMed

Weissman, Amy; Ngak, Song; Srean, Chhim; Sansothy, Neth; Mills, Stephen; Ferradini, Laurent

2016-01-01

Recognizing transgender individuals have a high risk of HIV acquisition, and to inform policies and programming, we conducted an HIV prevalence and risk behaviors survey among transgender individuals in Cambodia. Cross-sectional survey using a respondent driven sampling method with self-administered audio-computer assisted interviews. HIV testing was performed prior to the questionnaire with results available immediately after. Eligible participants were ≥18 years, identified as male at birth and self-identified/expressed as a different gender, and reported having sex with at least one male partner in past year. From six major urban centers of Cambodia, 891 transgender individuals were recruited. The majority of the 891 participants self-identified as third gender or female (94.5%), were young (median age 23, IQR [20-27]), had secondary education or higher (80.5%), not married (89.7%), and employed (90.2%). The majority had first sex before 18 years (66.8%), with a male (79.9%), 37.9% having been paid or paying for this first sex. The rate of HIV positivity among participants was found to be 4.15%. Consistent condom use with male and female partners was low with all partner types, but particularly low with male partners when paying for sex (20.3%). The majority of participants reported having experienced discrimination in their lifetime (54.8%) and 30.3% had been assaulted. Multivariate analysis revealed that older age (adjusted OR = 14.73 [4.20, 51.67] for age 35-44 and adjusted OR = 7.63 [2.55, 22.81] for age 30-34), only having a primary school education or no schooling at all (adjusted OR = 2.62 [1.18, 5.80], being a resident of Siem Reap (adjusted OR = 7.44 [2.37, 23.29], receiving payment at first sex (adjusted OR = 2.26 [1.00, 5.11], having sex during/after using drugs (adjusted OR = 2.90 [1.09, 7.73]), inconsistent condom use during last anal sex (adjusted OR = 3.84 [1.58, 9.33]), and reporting low self-esteem (adjusted OR = 3.25 [1.35, 7.85]) were

Screening for violence risk factors identifies young adults at risk for return emergency department visit for injury.

PubMed

Hankin, Abigail; Wei, Stanley; Foreman, Juron; Houry, Debra

2014-08-01

Homicide is the second leading cause of death among youth aged 15-24. Prior cross-sectional studies, in non-healthcare settings, have reported exposure to community violence, peer behavior, and delinquency as risk factors for violent injury. However, longitudinal cohort studies have not been performed to evaluate the temporal or predictive relationship between these risk factors and emergency department (ED) visits for injuries among at-risk youth. The objective was to assess whether self-reported exposure to violence risk factors in young adults can be used to predict future ED visits for injuries over a 1-year period. This prospective cohort study was performed in the ED of a Southeastern US Level I trauma center. Eligible participants were patients aged 18-24, presenting for any chief complaint. We excluded patients if they were critically ill, incarcerated, or could not read English. Initial recruitment occurred over a 6-month period, by a research assistant in the ED for 3-5 days per week, with shifts scheduled such that they included weekends and weekdays, over the hours from 8AM-8PM. At the time of initial contact in the ED, patients were asked to complete a written questionnaire, consisting of previously validated instruments measuring the following risk factors: a) aggression, b) perceived likelihood of violence, c) recent violent behavior, d) peer behavior, e) community exposure to violence, and f) positive future outlook. At 12 months following the initial ED visit, the participants' medical records were reviewed to identify any subsequent ED visits for injury-related complaints. We analyzed data with chi-square and logistic regression analyses. Three hundred thirty-two patients were approached, of whom 300 patients consented. Participants' average age was 21.1 years, with 60.1% female, 86.0% African American. After controlling for participant gender, ethnicity, or injury complaint at time of first visit, return visits for injuries were significantly

Identifying Voxels at Risk for Progression in Glioblastoma Based on Dosimetry, Physiologic and Metabolic MRI.

PubMed

Anwar, Mekhail; Molinaro, Annette M; Morin, Olivier; Chang, Susan M; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A; Nelson, Sarah J; Lupo, Janine M

2017-09-01

Despite the longstanding role of radiation in cancer treatment and the presence of advanced, high-resolution imaging techniques, delineation of voxels at-risk for progression remains purely a geometric expansion of anatomic images, missing subclinical disease at risk for recurrence while treating potentially uninvolved tissue and increasing toxicity. This remains despite the modern ability to precisely shape radiation fields. A striking example of this is the treatment of glioblastoma, a highly infiltrative tumor that may benefit from accurate identification of subclinical disease. In this study, we hypothesize that parameters from physiologic and metabolic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at diagnosis could predict the likelihood of voxel progression at radiographic recurrence in glioblastoma by identifying voxel characteristics that indicate subclinical disease. Integrating dosimetry can reveal its effect on voxel outcome, enabling risk-adapted voxel dosing. As a system example, 24 patients with glioblastoma treated with radiotherapy, temozolomide and an anti-angiogenic agent were analyzed. Pretreatment median apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), fractional anisotropy (FA), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), vessel leakage (percentage recovery), choline-to-NAA index (CNI) and dose of voxels in the T2 nonenhancing lesion (NEL), T1 post-contrast enhancing lesion (CEL) or normal-appearing volume (NAV) of brain, were calculated for voxels that progressed [NAV→NEL, CEL (N = 8,765)] and compared against those that remained stable [NAV→NAV (N = 98,665)]. Voxels that progressed (NAV→NEL) had significantly different (P < 0.01) ADC (860), FA (0.36) and CNI (0.67) versus stable voxels (804, 0.43 and 0.05, respectively), indicating increased cell turnover, edema and decreased directionality, consistent with subclinical disease. NAV→CEL voxels were more abnormal (1,014, 0.28, 2.67, respectively) and leakier (percentage recovery = 70). A predictive model

Cost-effectiveness of In-home Automated External Defibrillators for Individuals at Increased Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death

PubMed Central

Cram, Peter; Vijan, Sandeep; Katz, David; Fendrick, A Mark

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE In-home automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are increasingly recommended as a means for improving survival of cardiac arrests that occur at home. The current study was conducted to explore the relationship between individuals' risk of cardiac arrest and cost-effectiveness of in-home AED deployment. DESIGN Markov decision model employing a societal perspective. PATIENTS Four hypothetical cohorts of American adults 60 years of age at progressively greater risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD): 1) all adults (annual probability of SCD 0.4%); 2) adults with multiple SCD risk factors (probability 2%); 3) adults with previous myocardial infarction (probability 4%); and 4) adults with ischemic cardiomyopathy unable to receive an implantable defibrillator (probability 6%). INTERVENTION Strategy 1: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest were treated with emergency medical services equipped with AEDs (EMS-D). Strategy 2: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest received initial treatment with an in-home AED, followed by EMS. RESULTS Assuming cardiac arrest survival rates of 15% with EMS-D and 30% with AEDs, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALY) of providing in-home AEDs to all adults 60 years of age is $216,000. Costs of providing in-home AEDs to adults with multiple risk factors (2% probability of SCD), previous myocardial infarction (4% probability), and ischemic cardiomyopathy (6% probability) are $132,000, $104,000, and $88,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The cost-effectiveness of in-home AEDs is intimately linked to individuals' risk of SCD. However, providing in-home AEDs to all adults over age 60 appears relatively expensive. PMID:15836529

Identifying and Managing Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abraham, Janice M.

1999-01-01

The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

A Prospective Cohort Study of Absconsion Incidents in Forensic Psychiatric Settings: Can We Identify Those at High-Risk?

PubMed Central

Cullen, Alexis E.; Jewell, Amelia; Tully, John; Coghlan, Suzanne; Dean, Kimberlie; Fahy, Tom

2015-01-01

Background Incidents of absconsion in forensic psychiatric units can have potentially serious consequences, yet surprisingly little is known about the characteristics of patients who abscond from these settings. The few previous studies conducted to date have employed retrospective designs, and no attempt has been made to develop an empirically-derived risk assessment scale. In this prospective study, we aimed to identify predictors of absconsion over a two-year period and investigate the feasibility of developing a brief risk assessment scale. Methods The study examined a representative sample of 135 patients treated in forensic medium- and low-secure wards. At baseline, demographic, clinical, treatment-related, and offending/behavioural factors were ascertained from electronic medical records and the treating teams. Incidents of absconsion (i.e., failure to return from leave, incidents of escape, and absconding whilst on escorted leave) were assessed at a two-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the strongest predictors of absconsion which were then weighted according to their ability to discriminate absconders and non-absconders. The predictive utility of a brief risk assessment scale based on these weighted items was evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). Results During the two-year follow-up period, 27 patients (20%) absconded, accounting for 56 separate incidents. In multivariate analyses, four factors relating to offending and behaviour emerged as the strongest predictors of absconsion: history of sexual offending, previous absconsion, recent inpatient verbal aggression, and recent inpatient substance use. The weighted risk scale derived from these factors had moderate-to-good predictive accuracy (ROC area under the curve: 0.80; sensitivity: 067; specificity: 0.71), a high negative predictive value (0.91), but a low positive predictive value (0.34). Conclusion Potentially-targetable recent behaviours, such as

Effect of risk ladder format on risk perception in high- and low-numerate individuals.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael; Visschers, Vivianne

2009-09-01

Utilizing a random sample from the general population (N= 257), we examined the effect of the radon risk ladder on risk perception, as qualified by respondents' numeracy. The radon risk ladder provides comparative risk information about the radon equivalent of smoking risk. We compared a risk ladder providing smoking risk information with a risk ladder not providing this information. A 2 (numeracy; high, low) x 3 (risk level; high, medium, low) x 2 (smoking risk comparison: with/without) between subjects experimental design was used. A significant (p < 0.045) three-way interaction between format, risk level, and numeracy was identified. Participants with low numeracy skills, as well as participants with high numeracy skills, generally distinguished between low, medium, and high risk levels when the risk ladder with comparative smoking risk information was presented. When the risk ladder without the comparative information about the smoking risk was presented, low-numerate individuals differentiated between risk levels to a much lesser extent than high-numerate individuals did. These results provide empirical evidence that the risk ladder can be a useful tool in enabling people to interpret various risk levels. Additionally, these results allow us to conclude that providing comparative information within a risk ladder is particularly helpful to the understanding of different risk levels by people with low numeracy skills.

Identifying Women at Risk for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome Utilizing Breast Care Nurse Navigation at Mammography and Imaging Centers.

PubMed

Appel, Susan J; Cleiment, Rosemary J

2015-12-01

Approximately 5-10% of breast cancer cases appear in families at a higher rate and at an earlier onset than in the average population. Two known gene defects, BRCA1 and BRCA2, account for the majority of these hereditary related breast cancers. Additionally, BRCA1 and BRCA2 are related to the Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer syndrome (HBOC), where risk for other related cancers are increased. Various health-care professional organizations provide guidelines that speak to the need for conducting risk assessments, but little research has been conducted focusing on the initial screening for this syndrome. This quality improvement project attempts to determine if Nurse Navigators can effectively perform the initial education and screening for HBOC syndrome within a mammography and women's breast imaging setting using a simplified patient history tool. E. M. Rodgers' Diffusion of Innovation model, a map of how new ideas and programs have become adopted and accepted, guided this project's development and implementation. Over the course of 8 weeks, 1,420 women seeking service at 3 mammography and imaging sites were given a new risk assessment tool for HBOC. Additionally, the use of Nurse Navigation to identify women who may be at risk for HBOC was implemented. Two populations seeking service at the study sites were evaluated: (1) women obtaining breast screening/imaging services and (2) women receiving breast biopsy results. Patients identified as "at-risk" were defined by evidence-based practice guidelines from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and were referred for further genetic evaluation by a genetic professional. During this initial implementation of the HBOC risk assessment program, low participation of screening/imaging patients requesting HBOC education and evaluation occurred (129 screening patients or 9%). High rates of positive biopsy patients (5 patients or 34.7%) werefound to be at risk for HBOC compared to similar studies. Identifying HBOC risk

School-based Study to Identify and Treat Adolescent Students at Risk for Tuberculosis Infection.

PubMed

Hatzenbuehler, Lindsay A; Starke, Jeffrey R; Graviss, Edward A; Smith, E O'Brian; Cruz, Andrea T

2016-07-01

Screening for and treating tuberculosis (TB) infection in children and adolescents is an effective way of decreasing future TB cases. However, current approaches leave many children at risk for TB unidentified. We recruited adolescent students from 2 public high schools (a magnet and a low-income) in the Houston Independent School District. Compared with the magnet school, the student population at the low-income school was larger, primarily Hispanic and economically disadvantaged. Students were educated about TB, and parents completed a risk factor questionnaire. Students with TB risk factors were tested using 2 interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs). Those with a positive IGRA received a 12-dose regimen of weekly isoniazid/rifapentine (3HP) administered via direct observation at school. Nine hundred twenty-five students received TB education; 73% of their parents submitted the TB questionnaire. Eighty-six percent of students (n = 415) with a TB risk factor identified on the study questionnaire agreed to IGRA testing. Sixteen students had at least one positive IGRA (1% [magnet], 4.1% [low-income]; P = 0.005). Recent student travel to a high-risk country (7) or contact with TB disease (2) were associated with IGRA positivity (P < 0.05). All students with a positive IGRA accepted, tolerated and completed 3HP treatment at school. School-based TB education, screening, testing using IGRAs and administration of 3HP treatment is feasible to improve the identification and treatment of adolescent students at risk for TB.

Self-efficacy and health behaviors toward the prevention of diabetes among high risk individuals living in Appalachia.

PubMed

Serrano, Elena; Leiferman, Jennifer; Dauber, Sarah

2007-04-01

Recent clinical trials indicate that type 2 diabetes can largely be prevented through lifestyle factors. In order to identify important modalities for the prevention of diabetes in medically underserved counties of Virginia (Appalachia), a questionnaire was administered to 135 at-risk individuals, having reported at least one risk factor for diabetes. The questionnaire assessed attitudes, self-efficacy, diet, and physical activity toward the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Overall, none of the respondents reported being told by a physician that they were at risk for diabetes. Overweight was the most frequently reported risk factor (87.0%), followed by physical inactivity (67.3%). More than one-third (38.9%) reported at least three diabetes symptoms. When stratified by low and high risk level, there were no significant differences in self-efficacy, control, and healthy dietary behaviors (p < .05). High risk individuals did report having lower rates of full health insurance coverage, being less active and running out of food more frequently than low risk individuals, however. The findings suggest that cost-effective prevention efforts should incorporate physician education, include screenings, and address self-efficacy enhancing strategies toward preventing type 2 diabetes.

Body mass index cut-points to identify cardiometabolic risk in black South Africans.

PubMed

Kruger, H Salome; Schutte, Aletta E; Walsh, Corinna M; Kruger, Annamarie; Rennie, Kirsten L

2017-02-01

To determine optimal body mass index (BMI) cut-points for the identification of cardiometabolic risk in black South African adults. We performed a cross-sectional study of a weighted sample of healthy black South Africans aged 25-65 years (721 men, 1386 women) from the North West and Free State Provinces. Demographic, lifestyle and anthropometric measures were taken, and blood pressure, fasting serum triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and blood glucose were measured. We defined elevated cardiometabolic risk as having three or more risk factors according to international metabolic syndrome criteria. Receiver operating characteristic curves were applied to identify an optimal BMI cut-point for men and women. BMI had good diagnostic performance to identify clustering of three or more risk factors, as well as individual risk factors: low HDL-cholesterol, elevated fasting glucose and triglycerides, with areas under the curve >.6, but not for high blood pressure. Optimal BMI cut-points averaged 22 kg/m 2 for men and 28 kg/m 2 for women, respectively, with better sensitivity in men (44.0-71.9 %), and in women (60.6-69.8 %), compared to a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 (17-19.1, 53-61.4 %, respectively). Men and women with a BMI >22 and >28 kg/m 2 , respectively, had significantly increased probability of elevated cardiometabolic risk after adjustment for age, alcohol use and smoking. In black South African men, a BMI cut-point of 22 kg/m 2 identifies those at cardiometabolic risk, whereas a BMI of 30 kg/m 2 underestimates risk. In women, a cut-point of 28 kg/m 2 , approaching the WHO obesity cut-point, identifies those at risk.

Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media.

PubMed

Lv, Meizhen; Li, Ang; Liu, Tianli; Zhu, Tingshao

2015-01-01

Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F 1 = 0.48; t2: F 1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F 1 = 0.41; t2: F 1 = 0.48) on different

Creating a Chinese suicide dictionary for identifying suicide risk on social media

PubMed Central

Liu, Tianli

2015-01-01

Introduction. Suicide has become a serious worldwide epidemic. Early detection of individual suicide risk in population is important for reducing suicide rates. Traditional methods are ineffective in identifying suicide risk in time, suggesting a need for novel techniques. This paper proposes to detect suicide risk on social media using a Chinese suicide dictionary. Methods. To build the Chinese suicide dictionary, eight researchers were recruited to select initial words from 4,653 posts published on Sina Weibo (the largest social media service provider in China) and two Chinese sentiment dictionaries (HowNet and NTUSD). Then, another three researchers were recruited to filter out irrelevant words. Finally, remaining words were further expanded using a corpus-based method. After building the Chinese suicide dictionary, we tested its performance in identifying suicide risk on Weibo. First, we made a comparison of the performance in both detecting suicidal expression in Weibo posts and evaluating individual levels of suicide risk between the dictionary-based identifications and the expert ratings. Second, to differentiate between individuals with high and non-high scores on self-rating measure of suicide risk (Suicidal Possibility Scale, SPS), we built Support Vector Machines (SVM) models on the Chinese suicide dictionary and the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SCLIWC) program, respectively. After that, we made a comparison of the classification performance between two types of SVM models. Results and Discussion. Dictionary-based identifications were significantly correlated with expert ratings in terms of both detecting suicidal expression (r = 0.507) and evaluating individual suicide risk (r = 0.455). For the differentiation between individuals with high and non-high scores on SPS, the Chinese suicide dictionary (t1: F1 = 0.48; t2: F1 = 0.56) produced a more accurate identification than SCLIWC (t1: F1 = 0.41; t2: F1 = 0.48) on different

Cancer risk awareness and screening uptake in individuals at higher risk for colon cancer: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Bishehsari, Faraz; Delavari, Alireza; Barzin, Gilda; Amani, Mohammad; Majidi, Azam; Sadjadi, Alireza; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-01-01

Objective We aimed to measure cancer knowledge and feasibility of a screening colonoscopy among a cohort of individuals at higher risk of colon cancer. Methods This study was conducted as part of an ongoing screening cohort, in which first degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with colon cancer are invited to participate in a free of charge screening colonoscopy. We enrolled 1017 FDRs in the study between 2013 and 2014 measuring their data on demographics, cancer knowledge and colonoscopy uptake. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results The relative's mean age was 48.7 years. Only about 28% of FDRs were aware of their increased risk for cancer, near 35.0% had ever heard about colonoscopy with 22% aware of the correct age to start screening. Comparing cancer knowledge of FDRs at high risk versus those at moderate risk, we recorded non-significant differences (p>0.05). Almost two-thirds of FDRs expressed willingness to undergo a colonoscopy and 49.2% completed the procedure, of which 12.8% had advanced neoplasm. Conclusions Our data indicated that remarkable numbers of FDRs were not still informed of their cancer risk or never received a physician recommendation for screening. The desirable uptake at first invitation, which would be higher over successive invitations, supports the feasibility of a family-based recruitment approach for early screening. This has promising implications to introduce targeted screening colonoscopy into the healthcare system in Iran and other developing nations. PMID:27998901

Ability of the plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to identify increased cardio-metabolic risk in an east Asian population.

PubMed

Sung, Ki-Chul; Reaven, Gerald; Kim, Sun

2014-07-01

The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) has identified increased cardio-metabolic risk and outcome in European populations. The goal of this study was to see if this ratio would also have clinical utility in identifying cardio-metabolic risk in an East Asian population. Measurements of various cardio-metabolic risk factors, including coronary calcium scores, were available on 12,166 apparently healthy Korean adults. Approximately 25% of men and women with the highest TG/HDL-C ratios were classified as being at high cardio-metabolic risk, and their risk factor profiles compared to the remainder of the population, as well as to individuals with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). High cardio-metabolic risk (upper 25%) was defined as a TG/HDL-C ratio ≥3.5 (men) or ≥2.0 (women), and all cardio-metabolic risk factors measured, including coronary calcium scores, were significantly more adverse when compared to individuals beneath these cut-points. Although cardio-metabolic risk profiles appeared reasonably comparable in subjects identified by either a high TG/HDL-C or a diagnosis of MetS, use of the TG/HDL-C increased the numbers at high risk. Evidence that determination of the plasma TG/HDL-C concentration ratio provides a simple way to identify individual at increased cardio-metabolic risk has been extended to an East Asian population. The ability of an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio to accomplish this goal is comparable to that achieved using the more complicated MetS criteria. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying Risk Factors Associated with Inappropriate Use of Acid Suppressive Therapy at a Community Hospital

PubMed Central

Bodukam, Vijay; Saigal, Kirit; Bahl, Jaya; Wang, Yvette; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lu, Yinghui; Davis, Michael

2016-01-01

Purpose. By examining the prescribing patterns and inappropriate use of acid suppressive therapy (AST) during hospitalization and at discharge we sought to identify the risk factors associated with such practices. Methods. In this retrospective observational study, inpatient records were reviewed from January 2011 to December 2013. Treatment with AST was considered appropriate if the patient had a known specific indication or met criteria for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Results. In 2011, out of 58 patients who were on AST on admission, 32 were newly started on it and 23 (72%) were inappropriate cases. In 2012, out of 97 patients on AST, 61 were newly started on it and 51 (84%) were inappropriate cases. In 2013, 99 patients were on AST, of which 48 were newly started on it and 36 (75%) were inappropriate cases. 19% of the patients inappropriately started on AST were discharged on it in three years. Younger age, female sex, and 1 or more handoffs between services were significantly associated with increased risk of inappropriate AST. Conclusion. Our findings reflect inappropriate prescription of AST which leads to increase in costs of care and unnecessarily puts the patient at risk for potential adverse events. The results of this study emphasize the importance of examining the patient's need for AST at each level of care especially when the identified risk factors are present. PMID:27818680

Identifying Common Genetic Risk Factors of Diabetic Neuropathies

PubMed Central

Witzel, Ini-Isabée; Jelinek, Herbert F.; Khalaf, Kinda; Lee, Sungmun; Khandoker, Ahsan H.; Alsafar, Habiba

2015-01-01

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global public health problem of epidemic proportions, with 60–70% of affected individuals suffering from associated neurovascular complications that act on multiple organ systems. The most common and clinically significant neuropathies of T2DM include uremic neuropathy, peripheral neuropathy, and cardiac autonomic neuropathy. These conditions seriously impact an individual’s quality of life and significantly increase the risk of morbidity and mortality. Although advances in gene sequencing technologies have identified several genetic variants that may regulate the development and progression of T2DM, little is known about whether or not the variants are involved in disease progression and how these genetic variants are associated with diabetic neuropathy specifically. Significant missing heritability data and complex disease etiologies remain to be explained. This article is the first to provide a review of the genetic risk variants implicated in the diabetic neuropathies and to highlight potential commonalities. We thereby aim to contribute to the creation of a genetic-metabolic model that will help to elucidate the cause of diabetic neuropathies, evaluate a patient’s risk profile, and ultimately facilitate preventative and targeted treatment for the individual. PMID:26074879

Inulin Supplementation Does Not Reduce Plasma Trimethylamine N-Oxide Concentrations in Individuals at Risk for Type 2 Diabetes.

PubMed

Baugh, Mary Elizabeth; Steele, Cortney N; Angiletta, Christopher J; Mitchell, Cassie M; Neilson, Andrew P; Davy, Brenda M; Hulver, Matthew W; Davy, Kevin P

2018-06-20

Trimethylamine N -oxide (TMAO) is associated with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events. Prebiotic supplementation has been purported to reduce TMAO production, but whether prebiotics reduce fasting or postprandial TMAO levels is unclear. Sedentary, overweight/obese adults at risk for T2DM ( n = 18) were randomized to consume a standardized diet (55% carbohydrate, 30% fat) with 10 g/day of either an inulin supplement or maltodextrin placebo for 6 weeks. Blood samples were obtained in the fasting state and hourly during a 4-h high-fat challenge meal (820 kcal; 25% carbohydrate, 63% fat; 317.4 mg choline, 62.5 mg betaine, 8.1 mg l-carnitine) before and after the diet. Plasma TMAO and trimethylamine (TMA) moieties (choline, l-carnitine, betaine, and γ-butyrobetaine) were measured using isocratic ultraperformance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). There were no differences in fasting or postprandial TMAO or TMA moieties between the inulin and placebo groups at baseline (all p > 0.05). There were no significant changes in fasting or postprandial plasma TMAO or TMA moiety concentrations following inulin or placebo. These findings suggest that inulin supplementation for 6 weeks did not reduce fasting or postprandial TMAO in individuals at risk for T2DM. Future studies are needed to identify efficacious interventions that reduce plasma TMAO concentrations.

Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause.

PubMed

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-08-01

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193) and a retrospective validation (n = 567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high (≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95% CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95% CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

PubMed Central

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Tool to Identify Hotspots at the Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dongeren, A.; Viavattene, C.; Jimenez, J. A.; Ferreira, O.; Bolle, A.; Owen, D.; Priest, S.

2016-02-01

Extreme events in combination with an increasing population on the coast, future sea level rise and the deterioration of coastal defences can lead to catastrophic consequences for coastal communities and their activities. The Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit (RISC-KIT) FP7 EU project is producing a set of EU-coherent open-source and open-access tools in support of coastal managers and decision-makers. This paper presents one of these tools, the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) which assesses coastal risk at a regional scale to identify potential impact hotspots for more detailed assessment. Applying a suite of complex models at a full and detailed regional scale remains difficult and may not be efficient, therefore a 2-phase approach is adopted. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process based on a coastal-index approach delimiting several hotspots in alongshore length by assessing the potential exposure for every kilometre along the coast. CRAF Phase 2 uses a suite of more complex modelling process (including X-beach 1D, inundation model, impact assessment and Multi-Criteria Analysis approach) to analyse and compare the risks between the aforementioned identified hotspots. Results of its application are compared on 3 European Case Studies, the Flemish highly protected low-lying coastal plain with important urbanization and harbors, a Portuguese coastal lagoon protected by a multi-inlet barrier system, the highly urbanized Catalonian coast with touristic activities at threat. The flexibility of the tool allows tailoring the comparative analysis to these different contexts and to adapt to the quality of resources and data available. Key lessons will be presented.

Clinicians' preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries.

PubMed

Sarmadi, Roxana; Gahnberg, Lars; Gabre, Pia

2011-05-01

Clinicians handle diagnosis and treatment planning of caries in different ways, and the underlying factors leading to management of risk and choice of treatment strategies are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dentists' and dental hygienists' choices of preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries. A sample of dental records from 432 of a total of 3372 children in a Swedish county identified as at high risk of developing caries, aged 3-19 years, was randomly selected for analysis in the study. Information of importance for the therapists' choice of caries management strategies were obtained from the dental records. The results showed that therapists considered tooth brushing instruction and fluoride treatment at the clinic to be of primary importance as treatment given in 60% of the cases, respectively. Fluoride treatment at home and diet counselling were both chosen in half of the cases. Fissure sealant therapy was used in 21% of the cases, and 15% of the patients did not receive any preventive treatment at all. The results also showed that girls more often received fluoride treatment, tooth brushing instruction and oral hygiene information than boys. In the majority of the children and adolescents, several preventive measures were given. The more background factors included in the risk assessment, the more preventive measures were given. The differences between the treatments given to girls and the boys need to be further investigated. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Universal screening for alcohol misuse in acute medical admissions is feasible and identifies patients at high risk of liver disease.

PubMed

Westwood, Greta; Meredith, Paul; Atkins, Susan; Greengross, Peter; Schmidt, Paul E; Aspinall, Richard J

2017-09-01

Many people who die from alcohol related liver disease (ARLD) have a history of recurrent admissions to hospital, representing potential missed opportunities for intervention. Universal screening for alcohol misuse has been advocated but it is not known if this is achievable or effective at detecting individuals at high risk of ARLD. We systematically screened all admissions to the Acute Medical Unit (AMU) of a large acute hospital using an electronic data capture system in real time. Patients at an increasing risk of alcohol harm were referred for either brief intervention (BI) or further assessment by an Alcohol Specialist Nursing Service (ASNS). Additional data were recorded on admission diagnoses, alcohol unit consumption, previous attendances, previous admissions, length of stay and mortality. Between July 2011 and March 2014, there were 53,165 admissions and 48,211 (90.68%) completed screening. Of these, 1,122 (2.3%) were classified as "increasing", and 1,921 (4.0%) as "high" risk of alcohol harm. High risk patients had more hospital admissions in the three previous years (average 4.74) than the low (3.00) and increasing (2.92) risk groups (p<0.001). The high risk patients also had more frequent emergency department (ED) attendances (7.68) than the lower (2.64) and increasing (3.81) groups (p<0.001 for both). A total of 1,396 (72.6%) of the high risk group were seen by the ASNS and 1,135 (81.2%) had an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score over 20 with 527 (37.8%) recording the maximum value of 40. Compared to the other groups, high risk patients had a distinct profile of admissions with the most common diagnoses being mental health disorders, gastro-intestinal bleeding, poisoning and liver disease. Universal screening of admissions for alcohol misuse is feasible and identifies a cohort with frequent ED attendances, recurrent admissions and an elevated risk of ARLD. An additional group of patients at an increasing risk of alcohol harm can be

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) in Individuals at Ultra High Risk

PubMed Central

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; De Micheli, Andrea; Rutigliano, Grazia; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Tognin, Stefania; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Castagnini, Augusto; McGuire, Philip

2017-01-01

Background: Brief Limited Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BLIPS) are key inclusion criteria to define individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis (UHR). Their diagnostic and prognostic significance is unclear. Objectives: To address the baseline diagnostic relationship between BLIPS and the ICD-10 categories and examine the longitudinal prognostic impact of clinical and sociodemographic factors. Methods: Prospective long-term study in UHR individuals meeting BLIPS criteria. Sociodemographic and clinical data, including ICD-10 diagnoses, were automatically drawn from electronic health records and analyzed using Kaplan–Meier failure function (1-survival), Cox regression models, bootstrapping methods, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Results: Eighty BLIPS were included. At baseline, two-thirds (68%) of BLIPS met the diagnostic criteria for ICD-10 Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorder (ATPD), most featuring schizophrenic symptoms. The remaining individuals met ICD-10 diagnostic criteria for unspecified nonorganic psychosis (15%), mental and behavioral disorders due to use of cannabinoids (11%), and mania with psychotic symptoms (6%). The overall 5-year risk of psychosis was 0.54. Recurrent episodes of BLIPS were relatively rare (11%) but associated with a higher risk of psychosis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98) than mono-episodic BLIPS at the univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that seriously disorganizing or dangerous features increased greatly (HR = 4.39) the risk of psychosis (0.89 at 5-year). Bootstrapping confirmed the robustness of this predictor (area under the ROC = 0.74). Conclusions: BLIPS are most likely to fulfill the ATPD criteria, mainly acute schizophrenic subtypes. About half of BLIPS cases develops a psychotic disorder during follow-up. Recurrent BLIPS are relatively rare but tend to develop into psychosis. BLIPS with seriously disorganizing or dangerous features have an extreme high risk of psychosis. PMID:28053130

Long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent work-related impairment.

PubMed

Scott-Marshall, Heather K; Tompa, Emile; Wang, Ying; Liao, Qing

2014-07-11

Recent estimates indicate that at least one in five activity-limiting injuries occurs at work. Of individuals who suffer these injuries approximately 10% experience some degree of functional impairment. We were interested in investigating long-term mortality risk in individuals with permanent impairment from work injury and to examine whether work disability is a significant explanatory factor. We used a retrospective matched cohort methodology to examine differences in mortality rates between individuals with permanent impairment from a work injury and a group of non-injured controls over a 19-year period. We used a sample of impaired workers to investigate the impact of work disability on mortality risk using percentage of earnings recovery after injury as the key proxy measure. All analyses were stratified by sex. Permanent impairment from a work injury was predictive of premature mortality in both male and female claimants, though the risk was slightly higher among women. Work disability was a key explanatory factor in the rate of death among impaired workers, the effects being more pronounced in men. We also found that higher impairment level was associated with mortality in men but not in women. The study demonstrates the impact of permanent work-related impairment on longevity and identifies work disability as an important determinant of mortality risk. Given the disconnect between impairment ratings derived from standard diagnostic tools and labour-market activity after accident, more research is needed on the specific factors that contribute to work disability, particularly those related to psycho-social health and well-being.

[Validation of an instrument for screening cases of type 2 diabetes and monitoring at-risk individuals in Mexico].

PubMed

Guerrero-Romero, Fernando; Rodríguez-Morán, Martha

2010-03-01

To validate a method for screening cases of type 2 diabetes and monitoring at-risk people in a community in northern Mexico. The screening instrument for type 2 diabetes (ITD, for its Spanish acronym) was developed using a multiple logistic regression analysis that made it possible to determine the association between a new diagnosis of diabetes (a dependent variable) and 11 known risk factors. Internal validations were performed (through v-fold cross-validation), together with external validations (through the monitoring of a cohort of healthy individuals). In order to estimate the relative risk (RR) of developing type 2 diabetes, the total ITD score is calculated on the basis of an individual's risk factors and compared against a curve that shows the probability of that individual developing the disease. Of the 525 people in the cohort, 438 (83.4%) were followed for an average of 7 years (4.5 to 10 years), for a total of 2 696 person-years; 62 (14.2%) people developed diabetes during the time they were followed. Individuals scoring 55 points based on their risk factors demonstrated a significantly higher risk of developing diabetes in 7 years (RR = 6.1; IC95%: 1.7 to 11.1); the risk was even higher for those with a score of 75 points (RR = 9.4; IC95%: 2.1 to 11.5). The ITD is easy to use and a valid screening alternative for type 2 diabetes. Its use will allow more individuals to benefit from disease prevention methods and early diagnosis without substantially increasing costs and with minimal use of laboratory resources.

Dysphagia in individuals with tetraplegia: incidence and risk factors

PubMed Central

Shem, Kazuko; Castillo, Kathleen; Wong, Sandra; Chang, James

2011-01-01

Background/objective Dysphagia following cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) can increase risk for pulmonary complications that may delay the rehabilitative process. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for dysphagia after cervical SCI. Design Prospective cohort study. Methods Individuals with cervical SCI within 31 days of injury underwent a bedside swallow evaluation (BSE) followed by a videofluoroscopy swallow study (VFSS) within 72 hours of the BSE. Subjects were diagnosed as having dysphagia if they had positive findings in either BSE or VFSS. Results Twenty-nine patients (7 female and 22 male) were enrolled. Of these, 21 (72%) had high cervical tetraplegia (C4 or higher) and 8 (38%) had lower cervical tetraplegia. A tracheostomy was present in 18 (62%) patients; 15 (52%) subjects were on ventilators. Dysphagia was diagnosed in 12 (41%) subjects. Dysphagia was noted in 62% of the subjects with tracheostomy and 53% of the subjects on the ventilator, but only tracheostomy resulted in a statistically significant association with dysphagia (P = 0.047). All three subjects who had nasogastric tubes were diagnosed with dysphagia (P = 0.029). The relationships between dysphagia and gender, high versus low tetraplegia, presence of halo or collar, head injury, and ventilator use were not statistically significant, but age was a significant risk factor (P = 0.028). Conclusions Dysphagia is present in about 41% of individuals with acute tetraplegia. Only age, tracheostomy, and nasogastric tubes were identified as significant risk factors for dysphagia for individuals with tetraplegia. No relationship between dysphagia and level of SCI, spine surgery, collar, and ventilator use was found to exist. PMID:21528631

Plasma triglyceride determination can identify increased risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes: a hypothesis.

PubMed

Armato, J; Ruby, R; Reaven, G

2015-04-01

To evaluate the ability of plasma triglyceride (TG) measurements to identify statin-treated persons at accentuated risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The experimental population consisted of nondiabetic, statin-treated patients (n = 469), classified as being at high risk for T2DM, subdivided on the basis of a plasma TG concentration of 1.7 mmol/L. Comparisons were made of demographic characteristics, concentrations of fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c, and hs-CRP, oral glucose tolerance tests, estimates of insulin action and secretion, and lipid/lipoprotein profiles. Despite similar fasting glucose and HbA1c concentrations, patients with elevated TG concentrations displayed markers of increased risk of T2DM (insulin resistance and compensatory hyperinsulinemia), more adverse lipid/lipoprotein profiles, and increased prevalence of abnormal hs-CRP values. These findings demonstrate that plasma TG concentrations ≥ 1.7 mmol/L identified a subset of individuals at enhanced risk of developing statin-induced diabetes within a population classified prior to statin treatment as being at high risk of T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Chronic Cough Among 14,669 Individuals From the General Population.

PubMed

Çolak, Yunus; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Laursen, Lars C; Afzal, Shoaib; Lange, Peter; Dahl, Morten

2017-09-01

Risk factors for chronic cough in the general population have not been described systematically. We identified and ranked chronic cough risk factors at the individual and community level using data from 14,669 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. Severity of chronic cough was assessed using the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ). We ranked chronic cough risk factors based on magnitude of age-adjusted ORs at the individual level and of the population attributable risks (PARs) at the community level. Prevalence of chronic cough in the general population was 4% overall and 3% in never smokers, 4% in former smokers, and 8% in current smokers. Median score of the LCQ was 5.8 (25th-75th percentile, 5.0-6.3) for physical domain, 5.6 (25th-75th percentile, 4.6-6.3) for psychologic domain, 6.3 (25th-75th percentile, 5.5-6.8) for social domain, and 17.3 (25th- 75th percentile, 15.4-18.9) in total. At the level of the individual, age-adjusted ORs for the three top-ranked risk factors were 5.0 (95% CI, 1.4-18) for bronchiectasis, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.7-3.9) for asthma and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5-3.4) for gastroesophageal reflux disease in never smokers, 7.1 (95% CI, 2.6-20) for bronchiectasis, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.2-4.4) for asthma and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.2) for occupational exposure to dust/fumes in former smokers, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.3-2.9) for airflow limitation in current smokers. At the level of the community, the three top-ranked risk factors were female sex (PAR, 19%), asthma (PAR, 10%), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (PAR, 8%) in never smokers; abdominal obesity (PAR, 20%), low income (PAR, 20%), and asthma (PAR, 13%) in former smokers; and airflow limitation (PAR, 23%) in current smokers. Risk factors for chronic cough differ at the level of the individual and community, and by smoking status. Strategies to prevent and treat modifiable chronic cough risk factors should be tailored accordingly. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians

Standardised survey method for identifying catchment risks to water quality.

PubMed

Baker, D L; Ferguson, C M; Chier, P; Warnecke, M; Watkinson, A

2016-06-01

This paper describes the development and application of a systematic methodology to identify and quantify risks in drinking water and recreational catchments. The methodology assesses microbial and chemical contaminants from both diffuse and point sources within a catchment using Escherichia coli, protozoan pathogens and chemicals (including fuel and pesticides) as index contaminants. Hazard source information is gathered by a defined sanitary survey process involving use of a software tool which groups hazards into six types: sewage infrastructure, on-site sewage systems, industrial, stormwater, agriculture and recreational sites. The survey estimates the likelihood of the site affecting catchment water quality, and the potential consequences, enabling the calculation of risk for individual sites. These risks are integrated to calculate a cumulative risk for each sub-catchment and the whole catchment. The cumulative risks process accounts for the proportion of potential input sources surveyed and for transfer of contaminants from upstream to downstream sub-catchments. The output risk matrices show the relative risk sources for each of the index contaminants, highlighting those with the greatest impact on water quality at a sub-catchment and catchment level. Verification of the sanitary survey assessments and prioritisation is achieved by comparison with water quality data and microbial source tracking.

Exome Sequencing Identifies Potential Risk Variants for Mendelian Disorders at High Prevalence in Qatar

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L.; Fakhro, Khalid; Hackett, Neil R.; Salit, Jacqueline; Fuller, Jennifer; Agosto-Perez, Francisco; Gharbiah, Maey; Malek, Joel A.; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Badii, Ramin; Al-Marri, Ajayeb Al-Nabet; Chouchane, Lotfi; Stadler, Dora J.; Hunter-Zinck, Haley; Mezey, Jason G.; Crystal, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

Exome sequencing of families of related individuals has been highly successful in identifying genetic polymorphisms responsible for Mendelian disorders. Here, we demonstrate the value of the reverse approach, where we use exome sequencing of a sample of unrelated individuals to analyze allele frequencies of known causal mutations for Mendelian diseases. We sequenced the exomes of 100 individuals representing the three major genetic subgroups of the Qatari population (Q1 Bedouin, Q2 Persian-South Asian, Q3 African) and identified 37 variants in 33 genes with effects on 36 clinically significant Mendelian diseases. These include variants not present in 1000 Genomes and variants at high frequency when compared to 1000 Genomes populations. Several of these Mendelian variants were only segregating in one Qatari subpopulation, where the observed subpopulation specificity trends were confirmed in an independent population of 386 Qataris. Pre-marital genetic screening in Qatar tests for only 4 out of the 37, such that this study provides a set of Mendelian disease variants with potential impact on the epidemiological profile of the population that could be incorporated into the testing program if further experimental and clinical characterization confirms high penetrance. PMID:24123366

Radiation Risk Assessment of the Individual Astronaut: A Complement to Radiation Interests at the NIH

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Predicting human risks following exposure to space radiation is uncertain in part because of unpredictable distribution of high-LET and low-dose-derived damage amongst cells in tissues, unknown synergistic effects of microgravity upon gene- and protein-expression, and inadequately modeled processing of radiation-induced damage within cells to produce rare and late-appearing malignant cancers. Furthermore, estimation of risks of radiogenic outcome within small numbers of astronauts is not possible using classic epidemiologic study. It therefore seems useful to develop strategies of risk-assessment based upon large datasets acquired from correlated biological models useful for resolving radiogenic risk-assessment for irradiated individuals. In this regard, it is suggested that sensitive cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the biomolecular risk of malignant transformation be developed in order to resolve these NASA-specific challenges. Multiparametric cellular biodosimeters could be developed using analyses of gene-expression and protein-expression whereby large datasets of cellular response to radiation-induced damage are analyzed for markers predictive for acute response as well as cancer-risk. A new paradigm is accordingly addressed wherein genomic and proteomic datasets are registered and interrogated in order to provide statistically significant dose-dependent risk estimation in individual astronauts. This evaluation of the individual for assessment of radiogenic outcomes connects to NIH program in that such a paradigm also supports assignment of a given patient to a specific therapy, the diagnosis of response of that patient to therapy, and the prediction of risks accumulated by that patient during therapy - such as risks incurred by scatter and neutrons produced during high-energy Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy

Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test.

PubMed

Calabria, Bianca; Clifford, Anton; Shakeshaft, Anthony P; Conigrave, Katherine M; Simpson, Lynette; Bliss, Donna; Allan, Julaine

2014-09-01

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90.

Resettlement of individuals with learning disabilities into community care: a risk audit.

PubMed

Ellis, Roger; Hogard, Elaine; Sines, David

2013-09-01

This article describes a risk audit carried out on the support provided for 36 people with profound learning disabilities who had been resettled from hospital care to supported housing. The risks were those factors identified in the literature as associated with deleterious effects on quality of life. The audit was carried out with a specially designed tool that covered 24 possible risks and involved a support worker familiar with the service user choosing the most appropriate statement regarding each risk. Their judgements were verified by care managers and social needs assessors. Whilst one or more risks were identified for 32 of the 36 service users, the overall result showed relatively low risks for the group as a whole with 62 incidences (7%) from a possible 864, which nevertheless highlighted several areas that needed attention. The results of the audit have led to action plans for the provision and for the individual service users for whom risks were identified.

An Electronic Health Record Data-driven Model for Identifying Older Adults at Risk of Unintentional Falls

PubMed Central

Baus, Adam; Coben, Jeffrey; Zullig, Keith; Pollard, Cecil; Mullett, Charles; Taylor, Henry; Cochran, Jill; Jarrett, Traci; Long, Dustin

2017-01-01

Screening for risk of unintentional falls remains low in the primary care setting because of the time constraints of brief office visits. National studies suggest that physicians caring for older adults provide recommended fall risk screening only 30 to 37 percent of the time. Given prior success in developing methods for repurposing electronic health record data for the identification of fall risk, this study involves building a model in which electronic health record data could be applied for use in clinical decision support to bolster screening by proactively identifying patients for whom screening would be beneficial and targeting efforts specifically to those patients. The final model, consisting of priority and extended measures, demonstrates moderate discriminatory power, indicating that it could prove useful in a clinical setting for identifying patients at risk of falls. Focus group discussions reveal important contextual issues involving the use of fall-related data and provide direction for the development of health systems–level innovations for the use of electronic health record data for fall risk identification. PMID:29118679

Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

PubMed

Carroll, Roberta

2016-01-01

An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Truancy and teenage pregnancy in English adolescent girls: can we identify those at risk?

PubMed

Zhou, Yin; Puradiredja, Dewi Ismajani; Abel, Gary

2016-06-01

Truancy has been linked to risky sexual behaviours in teenagers. However, no studies in England have examined the association between truancy and teenage pregnancy, and the use of truancy as a marker of teenagers at risk of pregnancy. Using logistic regression, we investigated the association between truancy at age 15 and the likelihood of teenage pregnancy by age 19 among 3837 female teenagers who participated in the Longitudinal Study of Young People of England. We calculated the areas under the ROC curves of four models to determine how useful truancy would be as a marker of future teenage pregnancy. Truancy showed a dose-response association with teenage pregnancy after adjusting for ethnicity, educational intentions at age 16, parental socioeconomic status and family composition ('several days at a time' versus 'none', odds ratio 3.48 95% confidence interval 1.90-6.36, P < 0.001). Inclusion of risk behaviours improved the accuracy of predictive models only marginally (area under the ROC curve 0.76 full model versus 0.71 sociodemographic characteristics only). Truancy is independently associated with teenage pregnancy among English adolescent girls. However, the discriminatory powers of models were low, suggesting that interventions addressing the whole population, rather than targeting high-risk individuals, might be more effective in reducing teenage pregnancy rates. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

Identifying Occupations at Risk for Laryngeal Disorders Requiring Specialty Voice Care.

PubMed

Mori, Matthew C; Francis, David O; Song, Phillip C

2017-10-01

Objective To identify occupational groups' use of specialty voice clinic evaluation. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary subspecialty clinic. Subjects and Methods We analyzed data collected on patients presenting to the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Voice and Speech Laboratory over a 20-year period (1993-2013). The relative risk (RR) and 99% confidence interval (CI) of presentation were calculated for each occupational category in the greater Boston population using year-matched data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Results The records of 12,120 new patients were reviewed. Using year- and occupation-matched BLS data from 2005 to 2013, 2726 patients were included in the cohort analysis. Several occupations had significantly higher risk of presentation. These included arts and entertainment (RR 4.98, CI 4.18-5.95), law (RR 3.24, CI 2.48-4.23), education (RR 3.08, CI 2.70-3.52), and social services (RR 2.07, CI 1.57-2.73). In contrast, many occupations had significantly reduced risk of presentation for laryngological disorders, for example, maintenance (RR 0.25, CI 0.15-0.42), food preparation (RR 0.35, CI 0.26-0.48), and administrative support (RR 0.49, CI 0.41-0.57). Conclusion Certain occupations are associated with higher use of laryngological services presumably because of their vocational voice needs. In addition to confirming findings from other studies, we identified several new occupation groups with increased or decreased risk for laryngologic disorders. Understanding what factors predispose to requiring specialty voice evaluation may help in targeting preventative efforts.

Cancer risk awareness and screening uptake in individuals at higher risk for colon cancer: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Bishehsari, Faraz; Delavari, Alireza; Barzin, Gilda; Amani, Mohammad; Majidi, Azam; Sadjadi, Alireza; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-12-20

We aimed to measure cancer knowledge and feasibility of a screening colonoscopy among a cohort of individuals at higher risk of colon cancer. This study was conducted as part of an ongoing screening cohort, in which first degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with colon cancer are invited to participate in a free of charge screening colonoscopy. We enrolled 1017 FDRs in the study between 2013 and 2014 measuring their data on demographics, cancer knowledge and colonoscopy uptake. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The relative's mean age was 48.7 years. Only about 28% of FDRs were aware of their increased risk for cancer, near 35.0% had ever heard about colonoscopy with 22% aware of the correct age to start screening. Comparing cancer knowledge of FDRs at high risk versus those at moderate risk, we recorded non-significant differences (p>0.05). Almost two-thirds of FDRs expressed willingness to undergo a colonoscopy and 49.2% completed the procedure, of which 12.8% had advanced neoplasm. Our data indicated that remarkable numbers of FDRs were not still informed of their cancer risk or never received a physician recommendation for screening. The desirable uptake at first invitation, which would be higher over successive invitations, supports the feasibility of a family-based recruitment approach for early screening. This has promising implications to introduce targeted screening colonoscopy into the healthcare system in Iran and other developing nations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Resolving Risks in Individual Astronauts: A New Paradigm for Critical Path Exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richmond, Robert C.

2005-01-01

The limited number of astronauts available for risk-assessment prevents classic epidemiologic study, and thereby requires alternative approach to assessing risks within individual astronauts exposed to toxic agents identified within the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR). Developing a system of noninvasive real-time biodosimetry that provides large datasets for analyses before, during, and after missions for simultaneously determining 1) the kinds of toxic insult, 2) the degree of that insult, both within tissues absorbing that insult, would be usehl for resolving statistically significant risk-assessment in individual astronauts. Therefore, a currently achievable multiparametric paradigm is presented for use in analyzing gene-expression and protein-expression so as to establish predictive outcomes.

Beta-Blockers for Exams Identify Students at High Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity.

PubMed

Butt, Jawad H; Dalsgaard, Søren; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Kruuse, Christina; Fosbøl, Emil L

2017-04-01

Beta-blockers relieve the autonomic symptoms of exam-related anxiety and may be beneficial in exam-related and performance anxiety, but knowledge on related psychiatric outcomes is unknown. We hypothesized that beta-blocker therapy for exam-related anxiety identifies young students at risk of later psychiatric events. Using Danish nationwide administrative registries, we studied healthy students aged 14-30 years (1996-2012) with a first-time claimed prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period (May-June); students who were prescribed a beta-blocker for medical reasons were excluded. We matched these students on age, sex, and time of year to healthy and study active controls with no use of beta-blockers. Risk of incident use of antidepressants, incident use of other psychotropic medications, and suicide attempts was examined by cumulative incidence curves for unadjusted associations and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard analyses for adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). We identified 12,147 healthy students with exam-related beta-blocker use and 12,147 matched healthy students with no current or prior use of beta-blockers (median age, 19 years; 80.3% women). Among all healthy students, 0.14% had a first-time prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period with the highest proportion among students aged 19 years (0.39%). Eighty-one percent of the students filled only that single prescription for a beta-blocker during follow-up. During follow-up, 2225 (18.3%) beta-blocker users and 1400 (11.5%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed an antidepressant (p < 0.0001); 1225 (10.1%) beta-blocker users and 658 (5.4%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed a psychotropic drug (p < 0.0001); and 16 (0.13%) beta-blocker users and 6 (0.05%) nonbeta-blocker users attempted suicide (p = 0.03). Exam-related beta-blocker use was associated with an increased risk of antidepressant use (adjusted HRs, 1.68 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1

β cell death and dysfunction during type 1 diabetes development in at-risk individuals.

PubMed

Herold, Kevan C; Usmani-Brown, Sahar; Ghazi, Tara; Lebastchi, Jasmin; Beam, Craig A; Bellin, Melena D; Ledizet, Michel; Sosenko, Jay M; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Palmer, Jerry P

2015-03-02

Role of the funding source: Funding from the NIH was used for support of the participating clinical centers and the coordinating center. The funding source did not participate in the collection or the analysis of the data. The β cell killing that characterizes type 1 diabetes (T1D) is thought to begin years before patients present clinically with metabolic decompensation; however, this primary pathologic process of the disease has not been measured. Here, we measured β cell death with an assay that detects β cell-derived unmethylated insulin (INS) DNA. Using this assay, we performed an observational study of 50 participants from 2 cohorts at risk for developing T1D from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study and of 4 subjects who received islet autotransplants. In at-risk subjects, those who progressed to T1D had average levels of unmethylated INS DNA that were elevated modestly compared with those of healthy control subjects. In at-risk individuals that progressed to T1D, the observed increases in unmethylated INS DNA were associated with decreases in insulin secretion, indicating that the changes in unmethylated INS DNA are indicative of β cell killing. Subjects at high risk for T1D had levels of unmethylated INS DNA that were higher than those of healthy controls and higher than the levels of unmethylated INS DNA in the at-risk progressor and at-risk nonprogressor groups followed for 4 years. Evaluation of insulin secretory kinetics also distinguished high-risk subjects who progressed to overt disease from those who did not. We conclude that a blood test that measures unmethylated INS DNA serves as a marker of active β cell killing as the result of T1D-associated autoimmunity. Together, the data support the concept that β cell killing occurs sporadically during the years prior to diagnosis of T1D and is more intense in the peridiagnosis period. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00097292. Funding was from the NIH, the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, and the

Hazardous drinking and military community functioning: identifying mediating risk factors.

PubMed

Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Slep, Amy M Smith

2011-08-01

Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may be most effective in targeting community functioning (e.g., support from formal agencies, community cohesion) that impacts hazardous drinking via other proximal risk factors. The goal of the current study is to inform community-wide prevention efforts by testing a model of community functioning and mediating risk factors of hazardous drinking among active duty U.S. Air Force personnel. A large, representative survey sample of U.S. Air Force active duty members (N = 52,780) was collected at 82 bases worldwide. Hazardous drinking was assessed with the widely used Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, de la Fuente, & Grant, 1993). A variety of individual, family, and community measures were also assessed. Structural equation modeling was used to test a hypothesized model of community functioning, mediating risk factors and hazardous drinking. Depressive symptoms, perceived financial stress, and satisfaction with the U.S. Air Force were identified as significant mediators of the link between community functioning and hazardous drinking for men and women. Relationship satisfaction was also identified as a mediator for men. These results provide a framework for further community prevention research and suggest that prevention efforts geared at increasing aspects of community functioning (e.g., the U.S. Air Force Community Capacity model) may indirectly lead to reductions in hazardous drinking through other proximal risk factors.

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

2017-02-01

A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

Identifying Patients at Higher Risk of Prolonged Air Leak After Lung Resection.

PubMed

Gilbert, Sebastien; Maghera, Sonam; Seely, Andrew J; Maziak, Donna E; Shamji, Farid M; Sundaresan, Sudhir R; Villeneuve, Patrick J

2016-11-01

Predictive models of prolonged air leak have relied on information not always available preoperatively (eg, extent of resection, pleural adhesions). Our objective was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of prolonged air leak using preoperative factors exclusively. From 2012 to 2014, data on consecutive patients undergoing pulmonary resection were collected prospectively. Prolonged air leak was defined as lasting longer than 7 days and requiring hospitalization. Factors associated with the primary outcome (p < 0.2) were included in a multivariate model. Regression coefficients were used to develop a weighted risk score for prolonged air leak. Of 225 patients, 8% (18/225) experienced a prolonged air leak. Male gender (p = 0.08), smoking history (p = 0.03), body mass index (BMI) 25 or below (p < 0.01), Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnea score above 1 (p = 0.06), and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide below 80% (Dlco) (p = 0.01) were selected for inclusion in the final model. Weighted scores were male gender (1 point), BMI 25 or below (0.5 point), smoker (2 points), Dlco% below 80% (2 points), and MRC dyspnea score above 1 (1 point). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7 to 0.9]. An air leak score above 4 points offered the best combination of sensitivity (83% [95% CI = 58 to 96]) and specificity (65% [95% CI = 58 to 71]). A subgroup of lung resection patients at higher risk for a prolonged air leak can be effectively identified with the use of widely available, preoperative factors. The proposed scoring system is simple, is clinically relevant to the informed consent, and allows preoperative patient selection for interventions to reduce the risk of prolonged air leak. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute kidney injury subphenotypes based on creatinine trajectory identifies patients at increased risk of death.

PubMed

Bhatraju, Pavan K; Mukherjee, Paramita; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; O'Keefe, Grant E; Frank, Angela J; Christie, Jason D; Meyer, Nuala J; Liu, Kathleen D; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Wurfel, Mark M

2016-11-17

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AKI is highly heterogeneous, with variable links to poor outcomes. Current approaches to classify AKI severity and identify patients at highest risk for poor outcomes focus on the maximum change in serum creatinine (SCr) values. However, these scores are hampered by the need for a reliable baseline SCr value and the absence of a component differentiating transient from persistent rises in SCr. We hypothesized that identification of resolving or nonresolving AKI subphenotypes based on the early trajectory of SCr values in the ICU would better differentiate patients at risk of hospital mortality. We performed a secondary analysis of two prospective studies of ICU patients admitted to a trauma ICU (group 1; n = 1914) or general medical-surgical ICUs (group 2; n = 1867). In group 1, we tested definitions for resolving and nonresolving AKI subphenotypes and selected the definitions resulting in subphenotypes with the greatest separation in risk of death relative to non-AKI controls. We applied this definition to group 2 and tested whether the subphenotypes were independently associated with hospital mortality after adjustment for AKI severity. AKI occurred in 46% and 69% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively. In group 1, a resolving AKI subphenotype (defined as a decrease in SCr of 0.3 mg/dl or 25% from maximum in the first 72 h of study enrollment) was associated with a low risk of death. A nonresolving AKI subphenotype (defined as all AKI cases not meeting the "resolving" definition) was associated with a high risk of death. In group 2, the resolving AKI subphenotype was not associated with increased mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.17), whereas the nonresolving AKI subphenotype was associated with higher mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15-2.44) even after adjustment for AKI severity stage. The trajectory of SCr levels identifies AKI subphenotypes with different

Multiancestry association study identifies new asthma risk loci that colocalize with immune-cell enhancer marks.

PubMed

Demenais, Florence; Margaritte-Jeannin, Patricia; Barnes, Kathleen C; Cookson, William O C; Altmüller, Janine; Ang, Wei; Barr, R Graham; Beaty, Terri H; Becker, Allan B; Beilby, John; Bisgaard, Hans; Bjornsdottir, Unnur Steina; Bleecker, Eugene; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Bouzigon, Emmanuelle; Brightling, Christopher E; Brossard, Myriam; Brusselle, Guy G; Burchard, Esteban; Burkart, Kristin M; Bush, Andrew; Chan-Yeung, Moira; Chung, Kian Fan; Couto Alves, Alexessander; Curtin, John A; Custovic, Adnan; Daley, Denise; de Jongste, Johan C; Del-Rio-Navarro, Blanca E; Donohue, Kathleen M; Duijts, Liesbeth; Eng, Celeste; Eriksson, Johan G; Farrall, Martin; Fedorova, Yuliya; Feenstra, Bjarke; Ferreira, Manuel A; Freidin, Maxim B; Gajdos, Zofia; Gauderman, Jim; Gehring, Ulrike; Geller, Frank; Genuneit, Jon; Gharib, Sina A; Gilliland, Frank; Granell, Raquel; Graves, Penelope E; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Haahtela, Tari; Heckbert, Susan R; Heederik, Dick; Heinrich, Joachim; Heliövaara, Markku; Henderson, John; Himes, Blanca E; Hirose, Hiroshi; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Hofman, Albert; Holt, Patrick; Hottenga, Jouke; Hudson, Thomas J; Hui, Jennie; Imboden, Medea; Ivanov, Vladimir; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; James, Alan; Janson, Christer; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Jarvis, Deborah; Jones, Graham; Jonsdottir, Ingileif; Jousilahti, Pekka; Kabesch, Michael; Kähönen, Mika; Kantor, David B; Karunas, Alexandra S; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Koppelman, Gerard H; Kozyrskyj, Anita L; Kreiner, Eskil; Kubo, Michiaki; Kumar, Rajesh; Kumar, Ashish; Kuokkanen, Mikko; Lahousse, Lies; Laitinen, Tarja; Laprise, Catherine; Lathrop, Mark; Lau, Susanne; Lee, Young-Ae; Lehtimäki, Terho; Letort, Sébastien; Levin, Albert M; Li, Guo; Liang, Liming; Loehr, Laura R; London, Stephanie J; Loth, Daan W; Manichaikul, Ani; Marenholz, Ingo; Martinez, Fernando J; Matheson, Melanie C; Mathias, Rasika A; Matsumoto, Kenji; Mbarek, Hamdi; McArdle, Wendy L; Melbye, Mads; Melén, Erik; Meyers, Deborah; Michel, Sven; Mohamdi, Hamida; Musk, Arthur W; Myers, Rachel A; Nieuwenhuis, Maartje A E; Noguchi, Emiko; O'Connor, George T; Ogorodova, Ludmila M; Palmer, Cameron D; Palotie, Aarno; Park, Julie E; Pennell, Craig E; Pershagen, Göran; Polonikov, Alexey; Postma, Dirkje S; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Puzyrev, Valery P; Raby, Benjamin A; Raitakari, Olli T; Ramasamy, Adaikalavan; Rich, Stephen S; Robertson, Colin F; Romieu, Isabelle; Salam, Muhammad T; Salomaa, Veikko; Schlünssen, Vivi; Scott, Robert; Selivanova, Polina A; Sigsgaard, Torben; Simpson, Angela; Siroux, Valérie; Smith, Lewis J; Solodilova, Maria; Standl, Marie; Stefansson, Kari; Strachan, David P; Stricker, Bruno H; Takahashi, Atsushi; Thompson, Philip J; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Tiesler, Carla M T; Torgerson, Dara G; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Uitterlinden, André G; van der Valk, Ralf J P; Vaysse, Amaury; Vedantam, Sailaja; von Berg, Andrea; von Mutius, Erika; Vonk, Judith M; Waage, Johannes; Wareham, Nick J; Weiss, Scott T; White, Wendy B; Wickman, Magnus; Widén, Elisabeth; Willemsen, Gonneke; Williams, L Keoki; Wouters, Inge M; Yang, James J; Zhao, Jing Hua; Moffatt, Miriam F; Ober, Carole; Nicolae, Dan L

2018-01-01

We examined common variation in asthma risk by conducting a meta-analysis of worldwide asthma genome-wide association studies (23,948 asthma cases, 118,538 controls) of individuals from ethnically diverse populations. We identified five new asthma loci, found two new associations at two known asthma loci, established asthma associations at two loci previously implicated in the comorbidity of asthma plus hay fever, and confirmed nine known loci. Investigation of pleiotropy showed large overlaps in genetic variants with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The enrichment in enhancer marks at asthma risk loci, especially in immune cells, suggested a major role of these loci in the regulation of immunologically related mechanisms.

Neuropsychopharmacology and neurogenetic aspects of executive functioning: should reward gene polymorphisms constitute a diagnostic tool to identify individuals at risk for impaired judgment?

PubMed

Bowirrat, Abdalla; Chen, Thomas J H; Oscar-Berman, Marlene; Madigan, Margaret; Chen, Amanda Lh; Bailey, John A; Braverman, Eric R; Kerner, Mallory; Giordano, John; Morse, Siobhan; Downs, B William; Waite, Roger L; Fornari, Frank; Armaly, Zaher; Blum, Kenneth

2012-04-01

Executive functions are processes that act in harmony to control behaviors necessary for maintaining focus and achieving outcomes. Executive dysfunction in neuropsychiatric disorders is attributed to structural or functional pathology of brain networks involving prefrontal cortex (PFC) and its connections with other brain regions. The PFC receives innervations from different neurons associated with a number of neurotransmitters, especially dopamine (DA). Here we review findings on the contribution of PFC DA to higher-order cognitive and emotional behaviors. We suggest that examination of multifactorial interactions of an individual's genetic history, along with environmental risk factors, can assist in the characterization of executive functioning for that individual. Based upon the results of genetic studies, we also propose genetic mapping as a probable diagnostic tool serving as a therapeutic adjunct for augmenting executive functioning capabilities. We conclude that preservation of the neurological underpinnings of executive functions requires the integrity of complex neural systems including the influence of specific genes and associated polymorphisms to provide adequate neurotransmission.

Pattern recognition and functional neuroimaging help to discriminate healthy adolescents at risk for mood disorders from low risk adolescents.

PubMed

Mourão-Miranda, Janaina; Oliveira, Leticia; Ladouceur, Cecile D; Marquand, Andre; Brammer, Michael; Birmaher, Boris; Axelson, David; Phillips, Mary L

2012-01-01

There are no known biological measures that accurately predict future development of psychiatric disorders in individual at-risk adolescents. We investigated whether machine learning and fMRI could help to: 1. differentiate healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I psychiatric disorders from healthy adolescents at low risk of developing these disorders; 2. identify those healthy genetically at-risk adolescents who were most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. 16 healthy offspring genetically at risk for bipolar disorder and other Axis I disorders by virtue of having a parent with bipolar disorder and 16 healthy, age- and gender-matched low-risk offspring of healthy parents with no history of psychiatric disorders (12-17 year-olds) performed two emotional face gender-labeling tasks (happy/neutral; fearful/neutral) during fMRI. We used Gaussian Process Classifiers (GPC), a machine learning approach that assigns a predictive probability of group membership to an individual person, to differentiate groups and to identify those at-risk adolescents most likely to develop future Axis I disorders. Using GPC, activity to neutral faces presented during the happy experiment accurately and significantly differentiated groups, achieving 75% accuracy (sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 75%). Furthermore, predictive probabilities were significantly higher for those at-risk adolescents who subsequently developed an Axis I disorder than for those at-risk adolescents remaining healthy at follow-up. We show that a combination of two promising techniques, machine learning and neuroimaging, not only discriminates healthy low-risk from healthy adolescents genetically at-risk for Axis I disorders, but may ultimately help to predict which at-risk adolescents subsequently develop these disorders.

Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and physical activity of individuals exercising at a public park in the city of são paulo.

PubMed

Forjaz, Cláudia L M; Tinucci, Taís; Bartholomeu, Teresa; Fernandes, Tiago E M; Casagrande, Vivian; Massucato, José Geraldo

2002-07-01

Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart) involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

High-Risk Prescribing to Medicaid Enrollees Receiving Opioid Analgesics: Individual- and County-Level Factors.

PubMed

Heins, Sara E; Sorbero, Mark J; Jones, Christopher M; Dick, Andrew W; Stein, Bradley D

2018-01-05

Prescription opioid overdoses have increased dramatically in recent years, with the highest rates among Medicaid enrollees. High-risk prescribing includes practices associated with overdoses and a range of additional opioid-related problems. To identify individual- and county-level factors associated with high-risk prescribing among Medicaid enrollees receiving opioids. In a four-states, cross-sectional claims data study, Medicaid enrollees 18-64 years old with a new opioid analgesic treatment episode 2007-2009 were identified. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with high-risk prescribing, defined as high-dose opioid prescribing (morphine equivalent daily dose ≥100 mg for >6 days), opioid overlap, opioid-benzodiazepine overlap. High-risk prescribing occurred in 39.4% of episodes. Older age, rural county of residence, white race, and major depression diagnosis were associated with higher rates of all types of high-risk prescribing. Individuals with prior opioid, alcohol, and hypnotic/sedative use disorder diagnoses had lower odds of high-dose opioid prescribing but higher odds of opioid overlap and opioid-benzodiazepine overlap than individuals without such disorders. High-dose opioid prescribing in Massachusetts was less common than in California, Illinois, and New York, whereas the rate of benzodiazepine overlap in Massachusetts was more common than in other states. Conclusions/Importance: High-risk prescribing was common and associated with several important demographic, clinical, and community factors. Findings can be used to inform targeted interventions designed to reduce such prescribing, and given state variation observed, further research is needed to better understand the effects of state policies on high-risk prescribing.

Developing an online tool for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards.

PubMed

Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Yip, Fuyuen; Garbe, Paul

2018-04-01

Wildfire episodes pose a significant public health threat in the United States. Adverse health impacts associated with wildfires occur near the burn area as well as in places far downwind due to wildfire smoke exposures. Health effects associated with exposure to particulate matter arising from wildfires can range from mild eye and respiratory tract irritation to more serious outcomes such as asthma exacerbation, bronchitis, and decreased lung function. Real-time operational forecasts of wildfire smoke concentrations are available but they are not readily integrated with information on vulnerable populations necessary to identify at-risk communities during wildfire smoke episodes. Efforts are currently underway at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop an online tool that utilizes short-term predictions and forecasts of smoke concentrations and integrates them with measures of population-level vulnerability for identifying at-risk populations to wildfire smoke hazards. The tool will be operationalized on a national scale, seeking input and assistance from several academic, federal, state, local, Tribal, and Territorial partners. The final product will then be incorporated into CDC's National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (http://ephtracking.cdc.gov), providing users with access to a suite of mapping and display functionalities. A real-time vulnerability assessment tool incorporating standardized health and exposure datasets, and prevention guidelines related to wildfire smoke hazards is currently unavailable for public health practitioners and emergency responders. This tool could strengthen existing situational awareness competencies, and expedite future response and recovery efforts during wildfire episodes. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies a meningioma risk locus at 11p15.5.

PubMed

Claus, Elizabeth B; Cornish, Alex J; Broderick, Peter; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Dobbins, Sara E; Holroyd, Amy; Calvocoressi, Lisa; Lu, Lingeng; Hansen, Helen M; Smirnov, Ivan; Walsh, Kyle M; Schramm, Johannes; Hoffmann, Per; Nöthen, Markus M; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Swerdlow, Anthony; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Johansen, Christoffer; Simon, Matthias; Bondy, Melissa; Wrensch, Margaret; Houlston, Richard; Wiemels, Joseph L

2018-05-12

Meningioma are adult brain tumors originating in the meningeal coverings of the brain and spinal cord, with significant heritable basis. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified only a single risk locus for meningioma, at 10p12.31. To identify a susceptibility locus for meningioma, we conducted a meta-analysis of two GWAS, imputed using a merged reference panel of 1,000 Genomes and UK10K data, with validation in two independent sample series totaling 2,138 cases and 12,081 controls. We identified a new susceptibility locus for meningioma at 11p15.5 (rs2686876, odds ratio = 1.44, P = 9.86 × 10-9). A number of genes localize to the region of linkage disequilibrium encompassing rs2686876, including RIC8A, which plays a central role in the development of neural crest-derived structures, such as the meninges. This finding advances our understanding of the genetic basis of meningioma development and provides additional support for a polygenic model of meningioma.

Cannabis use and symptom severity in individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Carney, R; Cotter, J; Firth, J; Bradshaw, T; Yung, A R

2017-07-01

We aimed to assess whether individuals at ultra high risk (UHR) for psychosis have higher rates of cannabis use and cannabis use disorders (CUDs) than non-UHR individuals and determine whether UHR cannabis users have more severe psychotic experiences than non-users. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting cannabis use in the UHR group and/or positive or negative symptoms among UHR cannabis users and non-users. Logit event rates were calculated for cannabis use, in addition to odds ratios to assess the difference between UHR and controls. Severity of clinical symptoms in UHR cannabis users and non-users was compared using Hedges' g. Thirty unique studies were included (UHR n = 4205, controls n = 667) containing data from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies, and randomised control trials. UHR individuals have high rates of current (26.7%) and lifetime (52.8%) cannabis use, and CUDs (12.8%). Lifetime use and CUDs were significantly higher than controls (lifetime OR: 2.09; CUD OR: 5.49). UHR cannabis users had higher rates of unusual thought content and suspiciousness than non-users. Ultra high risk individuals have high rates of cannabis use and CUDs, and cannabis users had more severe positive symptoms. Targeting substance use during the UHR phase may have significant benefits to an individual's long-term outcome. © 2017 The Authors Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

PubMed

Schonberg, Mara A; Li, Vicky W; Eliassen, A Heather; Davis, Roger B; LaCroix, Andrea Z; McCarthy, Ellen P; Rosner, Bernard A; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hankinson, Susan E; Marcantonio, Edward R; Ngo, Long H

2016-12-01

Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses' Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors) and 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency) and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women's Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Within 5 years, 1.8 % of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0 % in WHI-ES, p = 0.02), and 6.6 % experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2 % in WHI-ES, p < 0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model's c-statistic was 0.61 (95 % CI [0.60-0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55-0.58) in WHI-ES. On average, our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88-0.97]). We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women's individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk.

Accounting for individualized competing mortality risks in estimating postmenopausal breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Schonberg, Mara A.; Li, Vicky W.; Eliassen, A. Heather; Davis, Roger B.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; McCarthy, Ellen P.; Rosner, Bernard A.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Marcantonio, Edward R.; Ngo, Long H.

2016-01-01

Purpose Accurate risk assessment is necessary for decision-making around breast cancer prevention. We aimed to develop a breast cancer prediction model for postmenopausal women that would take into account their individualized competing risk of non-breast cancer death. Methods We included 73,066 women who completed the 2004 Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) questionnaire (all ≥57 years) and followed participants until May 2014. We considered 17 breast cancer risk factors (health behaviors, demographics, family history, reproductive factors), 7 risk factors for non-breast cancer death (comorbidities, functional dependency), and mammography use. We used competing risk regression to identify factors independently associated with breast cancer. We validated the final model by examining calibration (expected-to-observed ratio of breast cancer incidence, E/O) and discrimination (c-statistic) using 74,887 subjects from the Women’s Health Initiative Extension Study (WHI-ES; all were ≥55 years and followed for 5 years). Results Within 5 years, 1.8% of NHS participants were diagnosed with breast cancer (vs. 2.0% in WHI-ES, p=0.02) and 6.6% experienced non-breast cancer death (vs. 5.2% in WHI-ES, p<0.001). Using a model selection procedure which incorporated the Akaike Information Criterion, c-statistic, statistical significance, and clinical judgement, our final model included 9 breast cancer risk factors, 5 comorbidities, functional dependency, and mammography use. The model’s c-statistic was 0.61 (95% CI [0.60–0.63]) in NHS and 0.57 (0.55–0.58) in WHI-ES. On average our model under predicted breast cancer in WHI-ES (E/O 0.92 [0.88–0.97]). Conclusions We developed a novel prediction model that factors in postmenopausal women’s individualized competing risks of non-breast cancer death when estimating breast cancer risk. PMID:27770283

Individual housing-based socioeconomic status predicts risk of accidental falls among adults.

PubMed

Ryu, Euijung; Juhn, Young J; Wheeler, Philip H; Hathcock, Matthew A; Wi, Chung-Il; Olson, Janet E; Cerhan, James R; Takahashi, Paul Y

2017-07-01

Accidental falls are a major public health concern among people of all ages. Little is known about whether an individual-level housing-based socioeconomic status measure is associated with the risk of accidental falls. Among 12,286 Mayo Clinic Biobank participants residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, subjects who experienced accidental falls between the biobank enrollment and September 2014 were identified using ICD-9 codes evaluated at emergency departments. HOUSES (HOUsing-based Index of SocioEconomic Status), a socioeconomic status measure based on individual housing features, was also calculated. Cox regression models were utilized to assess the association of the HOUSES (in quartiles) with accidental fall risk. Seven hundred eleven (5.8%) participants had at least one emergency room visit due to an accidental fall during the study period. Subjects with higher HOUSES were less likely to experience falls in a dose-response manner (hazard ratio: 0.58; 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.76 for comparing the highest to the lowest quartile). In addition, the HOUSES was positively associated with better health behaviors, social support, and functional status. The HOUSES is inversely associated with accidental fall risk requiring emergency care in a dose-response manner. The HOUSES may capture falls-related risk factors through housing features and socioeconomic status-related psychosocial factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Screening in Primary Care: What Is the Best Way to Identify At-Risk Youth for Substance Use?

PubMed

D'Amico, Elizabeth J; Parast, Layla; Meredith, Lisa S; Ewing, Brett A; Shadel, William G; Stein, Bradley D

2016-12-01

It is important to improve primary care providers' capability to identify youth at risk for alcohol and other drug use. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition criteria to compare screeners for youth for both alcohol and marijuana, given that these are the most frequently used substances by this age group. We compared the psychometric performance of 4 screeners: the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Screening Guide (NIAAA SG), the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, the Car-Relax-Alone-Forget-Family and Friends-Trouble (CRAFFT) screener, and the Personal Experience Screening Questionnaire Problem Severity Scale (PESQ-PS) in identifying alcohol and marijuana use outcomes. Youth age 12 through 18 (N = 1573; 27% black, 51% Hispanic) were screened with the NIAAA SG, followed by a Web survey that included the other screeners and outcomes. Sensitivity for alcohol outcomes indicated that the NIAAA SG (0.87) did not perform as well as the CRAFFT (0.97) or PESQ-PS (0.97) screeners but performed better than the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (0.70). The pattern for sensitivity across screeners for marijuana outcomes was similar. An important tradeoff in primary care settings is precision versus practicality. Because of brevity and focus on frequency of drinking, the NIAAA SG offers ease of administration and is good at identifying youth with probably problematic drinking levels. The PESQ-PS and the CRAFFT correctly identify more at-risk youth for alcohol and marijuana than the NIAAA SG. Future work is needed to elucidate how to efficiently and accurately identify at-risk youth in the primary care setting, including determining the best cutoff points to use to increase sensitivity. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Risk Factors for Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome in Active Individuals: An Evidence-Based Review.

PubMed

Winkelmann, Zachary K; Anderson, Dustin; Games, Kenneth E; Eberman, Lindsey E

2016-12-01

Reference/Citation: Hamstra-Wright KL, Bliven KC, Bay C. Risk factors for medial tibial stress syndrome in physically active individuals such as runners and military personnel: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Br J Sports Med. 2015;49(6):362-369. What factors put physically active individuals at risk to develop medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS)? The authors performed a literature search of CINAHL, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, and MEDLINE from each database's inception to July 2013. The following key words were used together or in combination: armed forces, athlete, conditioning, disorder predictor, exercise, medial tibial stress syndrome, militaries, MTSS, military, military personnel, physically active, predictor, recruit, risk, risk characteristic, risk factor, run, shin pain, shin splints, and vulnerability factor. Studies were included in this systematic review based on the following criteria: original research that (1) investigated risk factors associated with MTSS, (2) compared physically active individuals with and without MTSS, (3) was printed in English, and (4) was accessible in full text in peer-reviewed journals. Two authors independently screened titles or abstracts (or both) of studies to identify inclusion criteria and quality. If the article met the inclusion criteria, the authors extracted demographic information, study design and duration, participant selection, MTSS diagnosis, investigated risk factors, mean difference, clinical importance, effect size, odds ratio, and any other data deemed relevant. After the data extraction was complete, the authors compared findings for accuracy and completeness. When the mean and standard deviation of a particular risk factor were reported 3 or more times, that risk factor was included in the meta-analysis. In addition, the methodologic quality was assessed with an adapted checklist developed by previous researchers. The checklist contained 5 categories: study objective

Risk Factors for Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome in Active Individuals: An Evidence-Based Review

PubMed Central

Winkelmann, Zachary K.; Anderson, Dustin; Games, Kenneth E.; Eberman, Lindsey E.

2016-01-01

Reference/Citation: Hamstra-Wright KL, Bliven KC, Bay C. Risk factors for medial tibial stress syndrome in physically active individuals such as runners and military personnel: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Br J Sports Med. 2015;49(6):362–369. Clinical Question: What factors put physically active individuals at risk to develop medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS)? Data Sources: The authors performed a literature search of CINAHL, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, and MEDLINE from each database's inception to July 2013. The following key words were used together or in combination: armed forces, athlete, conditioning, disorder predictor, exercise, medial tibial stress syndrome, militaries, MTSS, military, military personnel, physically active, predictor, recruit, risk, risk characteristic, risk factor, run, shin pain, shin splints, and vulnerability factor. Study Selection: Studies were included in this systematic review based on the following criteria: original research that (1) investigated risk factors associated with MTSS, (2) compared physically active individuals with and without MTSS, (3) was printed in English, and (4) was accessible in full text in peer-reviewed journals. Data Extraction: Two authors independently screened titles or abstracts (or both) of studies to identify inclusion criteria and quality. If the article met the inclusion criteria, the authors extracted demographic information, study design and duration, participant selection, MTSS diagnosis, investigated risk factors, mean difference, clinical importance, effect size, odds ratio, and any other data deemed relevant. After the data extraction was complete, the authors compared findings for accuracy and completeness. When the mean and standard deviation of a particular risk factor were reported 3 or more times, that risk factor was included in the meta-analysis. In addition, the methodologic quality was assessed with an adapted checklist developed by

Identifying risk event in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuni, H. C.; Vanany, I.; Ciptomulyono, U.

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to identify risk issues in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain from the farm until to the “plate”. The critical points for food safety in physical fresh meat product flow are also identified. The paper employed one case study in the Indonesian fresh meat company by conducting observations and in-depth three stages of interviews. At the first interview, the players, process, and activities in the fresh meat industry were identified. In the second interview, critical points for food safety were recognized. The risk events in each player and process were identified in the last interview. The research will be conducted in three stages, but this article focuses on risk identification process (first stage) only. The second stage is measuring risk and the third stage focuses on determining the value of risk priority. The results showed that there were four players in the fresh meat supply chain: livestock (source), slaughter (make), distributor and retail (deliver). Each player has different activities and identified 16 risk events in the fresh meat supply chain. Some of the strategies that can be used to reduce the occurrence of such risks include improving the ability of laborers on food safety systems, improving cutting equipment and distribution processes

[Risk factors for the development of rotator cuff tears in individuals with paraplegia : A cross-sectional study].

PubMed

Pepke, W; Brunner, M; Abel, R; Almansour, H; Gerner, H J; Hug, A; Zeifang, F; Kentar, Y; Bruckner, T; Akbar, M

2018-02-27

Shoulder pain and rotator cuff tears are highly prevalent among wheelchair dependent individuals with paraplegia. The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors associated with the development of rotator cuff tears in this population. A total of 217 wheelchair dependent individuals with paraplegia were included in this cross-sectional study (level of evidence III). The mean age of this population was 47.9 years and the mean duration of wheelchair dependence was 24.1 years. Each individual was asked to complete a questionnaire designed to identify risk factors for rotator cuff tears and underwent a standardized clinical examination with the documentation of the Constant-Murley shoulder outcome score and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of both shoulder joints. MRI analysis revealed at least one rotator cuff tear in 93 patients (43%). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified the following factors to be associated with the presence of rotator cuff tear: patient age, duration of spinal cord injury/wheelchair dependence, gender, and wheelchair athletic activity. Neither BMI nor the level of spinal cord injury was found to pose a risk factor in the population studied. With respect to patient age, the risk of developing a rotator cuff tear increased by 11% per annum. In terms of duration of spinal cord injury, the analysis revealed a 6% increased risk per year of wheelchair dependence (OR = 1.06). Females had a 2.6-fold higher risk of developing rotator cuff tears than males and wheelchair sport activity increased the risk 2.3-fold. There is a high prevalence of rotator cuff tears in wheel-chair dependent persons with paraplegia. Risk factors such as age, gender, duration of paraplegia, and wheel chair sport activity seem to play an important role in the development of rotator cuff tears.

Transdiagnostic Risk Calculator for the Automatic Detection of Individuals at Risk and the Prediction of Psychosis: Second Replication in an Independent National Health Service Trust.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Werbeloff, Nomi; Rutigliano, Grazia; Oliver, Dominic; Davies, Cathy; Stahl, Daniel; McGuire, Philip; Osborn, David

2018-06-12

The benefits of indicated primary prevention among individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) are limited by the difficulty in detecting these individuals. To overcome this problem, a transdiagnostic, clinically based, individualized risk calculator has recently been developed and subjected to a first external validation in 2 different catchment areas of the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Trust. Second external validation of real world, real-time electronic clinical register-based cohort study. All individuals who received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the Camden and Islington (C&I) NHS Trust between 2009 and 2016 were included. The model previously validated included age, gender, ethnicity, age by gender, and ICD-10 index diagnosis to predict the development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychosis. The model's performance was measured using Harrell's C-index. This study included a total of 13702 patients with an average age of 40 (range 16-99), 52% were female, and most were of white ethnicity (64%). There were no CHR-P or child/adolescent services in the C&I Trust. The C&I and SLaM Trust samples also differed significantly in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and distribution of index diagnosis. Despite these significant differences, the original model retained an acceptable predictive performance (Harrell's C of 0.73), which is comparable to that of CHR-P tools currently recommended for clinical use. This risk calculator may pragmatically support an improved transdiagnostic detection of at-risk individuals and psychosis prediction even in NHS Trusts in the United Kingdom where CHR-P services are not provided.

Are Your Students Ready for Anatomy and Physiology? Developing Tools to Identify Students at Risk for Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

2015-01-01

High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online…

Identifying Aboriginal-specific AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers using measures of agreement with the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is a 10-item alcohol screener that has been recommended for use in Aboriginal primary health care settings. The time it takes respondents to complete AUDIT, however, has proven to be a barrier to its routine delivery. Two shorter versions, AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3, have been used as screening instruments in primary health care. This paper aims to identify the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 cutoff scores that most closely identify individuals classified as being at-risk drinkers, high-risk drinkers, or likely alcohol dependent by the 10-item AUDIT. Methods Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted from June 2009 to May 2010 and from July 2010 to June 2011. Aboriginal Australian participants (N = 156) were recruited through an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service, and a community-based drug and alcohol treatment agency in rural New South Wales (NSW), and through community-based Aboriginal groups in Sydney NSW. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of each score on the AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 were calculated, relative to cutoff scores on the 10-item AUDIT for at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent drinkers. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to measure the detection characteristics of AUDIT-C and AUDIT-3 for the three categories of risk. Results The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were high for drinkers classified as being at-risk, high-risk, and likely dependent. Conclusions Recommended cutoff scores for Aboriginal Australians are as follows: at-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 5, AUDIT-3 ≥ 1; high-risk drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 6, AUDIT-3 ≥ 2; and likely dependent drinkers AUDIT-C ≥ 9, AUDIT-3 ≥ 3. Adequate sensitivity and specificity were achieved for recommended cutoff scores. AUROC curves were above 0.90. PMID:25179547

Identifying Balance Measures Most Likely to Identify Recent Falls.

PubMed

Criter, Robin E; Honaker, Julie A

2016-01-01

Falls sustained by older adults are an increasing health care issue. Early identification of those at risk for falling can lead to successful prevention of falls. Balance complaints are common among individuals who fall or are at risk for falling. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of a multifaceted balance protocol used for fall risk screening, with the hypothesis that this protocol would successfully identify individuals who had a recent fall (within the previous 12 months). This is a retrospective review of 30 individuals who self-referred for a free fall risk screening. Measures included case history, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale, modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance, Timed Up and Go test, and Dynamic Visual Acuity. Statistical analyses were focused on the ability of the test protocol to identify a fall within the past 12 months and included descriptive statistics, clinical utility indices, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve analysis, effect size (Cohen d), and Spearman correlation coefficients. All individuals who self-referred for this free screening had current imbalance complaints, and were typically women (70%), had a mean age of 77.2 years, and had a fear of falling (70%). Almost half (46.7%) reported at least 1 lifetime fall and 40.0% within the past 12 months. Regression analysis suggested that the Timed Up and Go test was the most important indicator of a recent fall. A cutoff score of 12 or more seconds was optimal (sensitivity: 83.3%; specificity: 61.1%). Older adults with current complaints of imbalance have a higher rate of falls, fall-related injury, and fear of falling than the general community-dwelling public. The Timed Up and Go test is useful for determining recent fall history in individuals with imbalance.

Computer-based malnutrition risk calculation may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for unfavorable outcome.

PubMed

Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Daskalou, Efstratia; Lampoudis, Dimitrios; Apostolou, Aggeliki; Agakidis, Charalampos

2015-05-01

The study aimed to test the hypothesis that computer-based calculation of malnutrition risk may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for an unfavorable outcome. The Pediatric Digital Scaled MAlnutrition Risk screening Tool (PeDiSMART), incorporating the World Health Organization (WHO) growth reference data and malnutrition-related parameters, was used. This was a prospective cohort study of 500 pediatric patients aged 1 month to 17 years. Upon admission, the PeDiSMART score was calculated and anthropometry was performed. Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), Screening Tool Risk on Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), and Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP) malnutrition screening tools were also applied. PeDiSMART's association with the clinical outcome measures (weight loss/nutrition support and hospitalization duration) was assessed and compared with the other screening tools. The PeDiSMART score was inversely correlated with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance phase angle (BIA PhA). The score's grading scale was based on BIA Pha quartiles. Weight loss/nutrition support during hospitalization was significantly independently associated with the malnutrition risk group allocation on admission, after controlling for anthropometric parameters and age. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 75% and a significant area under the curve, which differed significantly from that of STRONGkids and STAMP. In the subgroups of patients with PeDiSMART-based risk allocation different from that based on the other tools, PeDiSMART allocation was more closely related to outcome measures. PeDiSMART, applicable to the full age range of patients hospitalized in pediatric departments, graded according to BIA PhA, and embeddable in medical electronic records, enhances efficacy and reproducibility in identifying pediatric patients at

β Cell death and dysfunction during type 1 diabetes development in at-risk individuals

PubMed Central

Herold, Kevan C.; Usmani-Brown, Sahar; Ghazi, Tara; Lebastchi, Jasmin; Beam, Craig A.; Bellin, Melena D.; Ledizet, Michel; Sosenko, Jay M.; Krischer, Jeffrey P.; Palmer, Jerry P.

2015-01-01

Role of the funding source: Funding from the NIH was used for support of the participating clinical centers and the coordinating center. The funding source did not participate in the collection or the analysis of the data. BACKGROUND. The β cell killing that characterizes type 1 diabetes (T1D) is thought to begin years before patients present clinically with metabolic decompensation; however, this primary pathologic process of the disease has not been measured. METHODS. Here, we measured β cell death with an assay that detects β cell–derived unmethylated insulin (INS) DNA. Using this assay, we performed an observational study of 50 participants from 2 cohorts at risk for developing T1D from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study and of 4 subjects who received islet autotransplants. RESULTS. In at-risk subjects, those who progressed to T1D had average levels of unmethylated INS DNA that were elevated modestly compared with those of healthy control subjects. In at-risk individuals that progressed to T1D, the observed increases in unmethylated INS DNA were associated with decreases in insulin secretion, indicating that the changes in unmethylated INS DNA are indicative of β cell killing. Subjects at high risk for T1D had levels of unmethylated INS DNA that were higher than those of healthy controls and higher than the levels of unmethylated INS DNA in the at-risk progressor and at-risk nonprogressor groups followed for 4 years. Evaluation of insulin secretory kinetics also distinguished high-risk subjects who progressed to overt disease from those who did not. CONCLUSION. We conclude that a blood test that measures unmethylated INS DNA serves as a marker of active β cell killing as the result of T1D-associated autoimmunity. Together, the data support the concept that β cell killing occurs sporadically during the years prior to diagnosis of T1D and is more intense in the peridiagnosis period. TRIAL REGISTRATION. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00097292. FUNDING

Effects of SNPs at newly identified lipids loci on blood lipid levels and risk of coronary heart disease in Chinese Han population: a case control study.

PubMed

Zhuang, Ke; Zhang, Wencai; Zhang, Xiaobo; Wu, Fangqin; Cheng, Longxian

2011-08-01

Associations between "lipid-related" candidate genes, blood lipid concentrations and coronary artery disease (CHD) risk are not clear. We aimed to investigate the effect of three newly identified lipids loci from genome-wide association studies on CHD and blood lipid levels in Chinese Han population. The genotypes of SNPs at three newly identified lipid loci and blood lipids concentrations were examined in 1360 CHD patients and 1360 age- and sex-frequency matched controls from an unrelated Chinese Han population. Allele T of rs16996148 occurred less frequently in CHD patients with the odds ratio (OR) being 0.64 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.81), after adjusting for conventional risk factors and was associated with a 33% decreased CHD risk (P<0.01) comparing with the major allele G. Individuals with GT genotype had the lowest CHD risk. No associations were found between the polymorphisms of other two loci with CHD risk and all three SNPs had no effect on lipid profile in this population. SNP rs16996148 on chromosome 19p13 is significantly associated with lower risk for CHD in Chinese Han population. However, it remains unresolved why these lipid-related loci had significantly less effects than the correspondingly expected effects on blood lipids levels in this population.

Prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a risk factor at a tertiary care hospital.

PubMed

Mahmud, Ghazala; Abbas, Shazra

2009-01-01

HIV is an epidemic quite unlike any other, combining the problems of a lifelong medical disease with immense social, psychological, economic and public health consequences. Since we are living in a global village where human interactions has become fast and frequent, diseases like HIV are no more alien to us. HIV/AIDS in Pakistan is slowly gaining recognition as a public health issue of great importance. Objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a high risk factor/behaviour at a tertiary care hospital. It is a Descriptive study. All pregnant women attending antenatal booking clinic were assessed via a pre-designed 'Risk assessment questionnaire'. Women identified with a risk factor were offered HIV Rapid screening test (Capillus HIV1/2). Positive (reactive) results on screening test were confirmed with ELISA. During the study period (March 2007-May 2008), out of 5263 antenatal bookings 785 (14%) women were identified with a risk factor. HIV screening test was done in 779 (99%), and 6 women refused testing. Three women (0.3%) were found positive (reactive) on screening. Two out of 3 women were confirmed positive (0.2%) on ELISA. Husbands of both women were tested and one found positive (migrant from Dubai). Second women had history of blood transfusion. Her husband was HIV negative. During the study period, in addition to 2 pregnant women diagnosed as HIV positive through ANC risk screening, 6 confirmed HIV positive women, found pregnant were referred from 'HIV Treatment Centre', Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) to Prevention of Parent to Child Transmission (PPTCT) centre for obstetric care. Spouses of 5 out of 6 had history of working abroad and extramarital sexual relationships. All positive (8) women were referred to PPTCT centre for further management. A simple 'Risk Assessment Questionnaire' can help us in identifying women who need HIV screening. Sexual transmission still remains the

Perceived ethnic discrimination and persecutory paranoia in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Shaikh, Madiha; Ellett, Lyn; Dutt, Anirban; Day, Fern; Laing, Jennifer; Kroll, Jasmine; Petrella, Sabrina; McGuire, Philip; Valmaggia, Lucia R

2016-07-30

Despite a consensus that psychosocial adversity plays a role in the onset of psychosis, the nature of this role in relation to persecutory paranoia remains unclear. This study examined the complex relationship between perceived ethnic discrimination and paranoid ideation in individuals at Ultra High Risk (UHR) for psychosis using a virtual reality paradigm to objectively measure paranoia. Data from 64 UHR participants and 43 healthy volunteers were analysed to investigate the relationship between perceived ethnic discrimination and persecutory ideation in a virtual reality environment. Perceived ethnic discrimination was higher in young adults at UHR in comparison to healthy controls. A positive correlation was observed between perceived ethnic discrimination and paranoid persecutory ideation in the whole sample. Perceived ethnic discrimination was not a significant predictor of paranoid persecutory ideation in the VR environment. Elevated levels of perceived ethnic discrimination are present in individuals at UHR and are consistent with current biopsychosocial models in which psychosocial adversity plays a key role in the development of psychosis and attenuated symptomatology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicide Risk at Young Adulthood: Continuities and Discontinuities From Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hooven, Carole; Snedker, Karen A.; Thompson, Elaine Adams

2011-01-01

Young adult suicide is an important social problem, yet little is known about how risk for young adult suicide develops from earlier life stages. In this study the authors report on 759 young adults who were potential high school dropouts as youth. At both adolescence and young adulthood, measures of suicide risk status and related suicide risk factors are collected. With a two-by-two classification on the basis of suicide risk status at both adolescence and young adulthood, the authors distinguish four mutually exclusive groups reflecting suicide risk at two life stages. Using ANOVA and logistic regression, both adolescent and young adult suicide risk factors are identified, with evidence of similarity between risk factors at adolescence and at young adulthood, for both individual-level and social-context factors. There is also support for both continuity and discontinuity of adolescent suicide risk. Implications for social policy are discussed. PMID:23129876

Microbiota fingerprints lose individually identifying features over time.

PubMed

Wilkins, David; Leung, Marcus H Y; Lee, Patrick K H

2017-01-09

Humans host individually unique skin microbiota, suggesting that microbiota traces transferred from skin to surfaces could serve as forensic markers analogous to fingerprints. While it is known that individuals leave identifiable microbiota traces on surfaces, it is not clear for how long these traces persist. Moreover, as skin and surface microbiota change with time, even persistent traces may lose their forensic potential as they would cease to resemble the microbiota of the person who left them. We followed skin and surface microbiota within households for four seasons to determine whether accurate microbiota-based matching of individuals to their households could be achieved across long time delays. While household surface microbiota traces could be matched to the correct occupant or occupants with 67% accuracy, accuracy decreased substantially when skin and surface samples were collected in different seasons, and particularly when surface samples were collected long after skin samples. Most OTUs persisted on skin or surfaces for less than one season, indicating that OTU loss was the major cause of decreased matching accuracy. OTUs that were more useful for individual identification persisted for less time and were less likely to be deposited from skin to surface, suggesting a trade-off between the longevity and identifying value of microbiota traces. While microbiota traces have potential forensic value, unlike fingerprints they are not static and may degrade in a way that preferentially erases features useful in identifying individuals.

The effect of cognitive remediation in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Glenthøj, Louise Birkedal; Hjorthøj, Carsten; Kristensen, Tina Dam; Davidson, Charlie Andrew; Nordentoft, Merete

2017-01-01

Cognitive deficits are prominent features of the ultra-high risk state for psychosis that are known to impact functioning and course of illness. Cognitive remediation appears to be the most promising treatment approach to alleviate the cognitive deficits, which may translate into functional improvements. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of cognitive remediation in the ultra-high risk population. The electronic databases MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase were searched using keywords related to cognitive remediation and the UHR state. Studies were included if they were peer-reviewed, written in English, and included a population meeting standardized ultra-high risk criteria. Six original research articles were identified. All the studies provided computerized, bottom-up-based cognitive remediation, predominantly targeting neurocognitive function. Four out of five studies that reported a cognitive outcome found cognitive remediation to improve cognition in the domains of verbal memory, attention, and processing speed. Two out of four studies that reported on functional outcome found cognitive remediation to improve the functional outcome in the domains of social functioning and social adjustment. Zero out of the five studies that reported such an outcome found cognitive remediation to affect the magnitude of clinical symptoms. Research on the effect of cognitive remediation in the ultra-high risk state is still scarce. The current state of evidence indicates an effect of cognitive remediation on cognition and functioning in ultra-high risk individuals. More research on cognitive remediation in ultra-high risk is needed, notably in large-scale trials assessing the effect of neurocognitive and/or social cognitive remediation on multiple outcomes.

The more from East-Asian, the better: risk prediction of colorectal cancer risk by GWAS-identified SNPs among Japanese.

PubMed

Abe, Makiko; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Nomura, Masatoshi; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Matsuo, Keitaro

2017-12-01

Little is known about the difference of genetic predisposition for CRC between ethnicities; however, many genetic traits common to colorectal cancer have been identified. This study investigated whether more SNPs identified in GWAS in East Asian population could improve the risk prediction of Japanese and explored possible application of genetic risk groups as an instrument of the risk communication. 558 Patients histologically verified colorectal cancer and 1116 first-visit outpatients were included for derivation study, and 547 cases and 547 controls were for replication study. Among each population, we evaluated prediction models for the risk of CRC that combined the genetic risk group based on SNPs from GWASs in European-population and a similarly developed model adding SNPs from GWASs in East Asian-population. We examined whether adding East Asian-specific SNPs would improve the discrimination. Six SNPs (rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10936599, rs16969681) from 23 SNPs by European-based GWAS and five SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279) among ten SNPs by Asian-based GWAS were selected in CRC risk prediction model. Compared with a 6-SNP-based model, an 11-SNP model including Asian GWAS-SNPs showed improved discrimination capacity in Receiver operator characteristic analysis. A model with 11 SNPs resulted in statistically significant improvement in both derivation (P = 0.0039) and replication studies (P = 0.0018) compared with six SNP model. We estimated cumulative risk of CRC by using genetic risk group based on 11 SNPs and found that the cumulative risk at age 80 is approximately 13% in the high-risk group while 6% in the low-risk group. We constructed a more efficient CRC risk prediction model with 11 SNPs including newly identified East Asian-based GWAS SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279). Risk grouping based on 11 SNPs depicted lifetime difference of CRC risk. This might be useful for

Quantifying links between stroke and risk factors: a study on individual health risk appraisal of stroke in a community of Chongqing.

PubMed

Wu, Yazhou; Zhang, Ling; Yuan, Xiaoyan; Wu, Yamin; Yi, Dong

2011-04-01

The objective of this study is to investigate the risk factors of stroke in a community in Chongqing by setting quantitative criteria for determining the risk factors of stroke. Thus, high-risk individuals can be identified and laid a foundation for predicting individual risk of stroke. 1,034 cases with 1:2 matched controls (2,068) were chosen from five communities in Chongqing including Shapingba, Xiaolongkan, Tianxingqiao, Yubei Road and Ciqikou. Participants were interviewed with a uniform questionnaire. The risk factors of stroke and the odds ratios of risk factors were analyzed with a logistic regression model, and risk exposure factors of different levels were converted into risk scores using statistical models. For men, ten risk factors including hypertension (5.728), family history of stroke (4.599), and coronary heart disease (5.404), among others, were entered into the main effect model. For women, 11 risk factors included hypertension (5.270), family history of stroke (4.866), hyperlipidemia (4.346), among others. The related risk scores were added to obtain a combined risk score to predict the individual's risk of stoke in the future. An individual health risk appraisal model of stroke, which was applicable to individuals of different gender, age, health behavior, disease and family history, was established. In conclusion, personal diseases including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, etc., were very important to the prevalence of stoke. The prevalence of stroke can be effectively reduced by changing unhealthy lifestyles and curing the positive individual disease. The study lays a foundation for health education to persuade people to change their unhealthy lifestyles or behaviors, and could be used in community health services.

Identifying Emergency Department Patients at Low Risk for a Variceal Source of Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Klein, Lauren R; Money, Joel; Maharaj, Kaveesh; Robinson, Aaron; Lai, Tarissa; Driver, Brian E

2017-11-01

Assessing the likelihood of a variceal versus nonvariceal source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) guides therapy, but can be difficult to determine on clinical grounds. The objective of this study was to determine if there are easily ascertainable clinical and laboratory findings that can identify a patient as low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. This was a retrospective cohort study of adult ED patients with UGIB between January 2008 and December 2014 who had upper endoscopy performed during hospitalization. Clinical and laboratory data were abstracted from the medical record. The source of the UGIB was defined as variceal or nonvariceal based on endoscopic reports. Binary recursive partitioning was utilized to create a clinical decision rule. The rule was internally validated and test characteristics were calculated with 1,000 bootstrap replications. A total of 719 patients were identified; mean age was 55 years and 61% were male. There were 71 (10%) patients with a variceal UGIB identified on endoscopy. Binary recursive partitioning yielded a two-step decision rule (platelet count > 200 × 10 9 /L and an international normalized ratio [INR] < 1.3), which identified patients who were low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. For the bootstrapped samples, the rule performed with 97% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 91%-100%) and 49% specificity (95% CI = 44%-53%). Although this derivation study must be externally validated before widespread use, patients presenting to the ED with an acute UGIB with platelet count of >200 × 10 9 /L and an INR of <1.3 may be at very low risk for a variceal source of their upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Single measure and gated screening approaches for identifying students at-risk for academic problems: Implications for sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Van Norman, Ethan R; Nelson, Peter M; Klingbeil, David A

2017-09-01

Educators need recommendations to improve screening practices without limiting students' instructional opportunities. Repurposing previous years' state test scores has shown promise in identifying at-risk students within multitiered systems of support. However, researchers have not directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous years' state test scores with data collected during fall screening periods to identify at-risk students. In addition, the benefit of using previous state test scores in conjunction with data from a separate measure to identify at-risk students has not been explored. The diagnostic accuracy of 3 types of screening approaches were tested to predict proficiency on end-of-year high-stakes assessments: state test data obtained during the previous year, data from a different measure administered in the fall, and both measures combined (i.e., a gated model). Extant reading and math data (N = 2,996) from 10 schools in the Midwest were analyzed. When used alone, both measures yielded similar sensitivity and specificity values. The gated model yielded superior specificity values compared with using either measure alone, at the expense of sensitivity. Implications, limitations, and ideas for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

PubMed

Kposowa, Augustine J

2013-09-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

Ability of EDI-2 and EDI-3 to correctly identify patients and subjects at risk for eating disorders.

PubMed

Segura-García, Cristina; Aloi, Matteo; Rania, Marianna; Ciambrone, Paola; Palmieri, Antonella; Pugliese, Valentina; Ruiz Moruno, Antonio José; De Fazio, Pasquale

2015-12-01

The prevention and early recognition of eating disorders (EDs) are important topics in public health. This study aims to compare the efficacy of the Eating Disorder Inventory 2 (EDI-2) with the new version, EDI-3 in recognising patients and identifying subjects at risk for EDs. The EDI-2 and EDI-3 were administered to 92 female patients with ED and 265 females from a population at risk for EDs. Experienced psychiatrists in this field held blind interviews with participants by means of the SCID-I to determine the diagnosis. According to the cut-offs suggested by the authors, the EDI-3 correctly identified nearly all of the ED patients (99%), while the EDI-2 divulged less than half (48%). Both versions of the test showed comparable capability to identify participants at risk for EDs but the EDI-3 seemed slightly more reliable than the EDI-2. The EDI-2 remains a valid and very specific test. However, the new EDI-3 seems to be experimentally superior, because it typifies nearly all patients across the ED span, including those with Binge Eating Disorder and Eating Disorder Not Otherwise Specified. In addition, it appears to be more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a novel scoring system for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain.

PubMed

Oltmanns, J; Licht, O; Bitsch, A; Bohlen, M-L; Escher, S E; Silano, V; MacLeod, M; Serafimova, R; Kass, G E N; Merten, C

2018-02-21

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for risk assessment of all aspects of food safety, including the establishment of procedures aimed at the identification of emerging risks to food safety. Here, a scoring system was developed for identifying chemicals registered under the European REACH Regulation that could be of potential concern in the food chain using the following parameters: (i) environmental release based on maximum aggregated tonnages and environmental release categories; (ii) biodegradation in the environment; (iii) bioaccumulation and in vivo and in vitro toxicity. The screening approach was tested on 100 data-rich chemicals registered under the REACH Regulation at aggregated volumes of at least 1000 tonnes per annum. The results show that substance-specific data generated under the REACH Regulation can be used to identify potential emerging risks in the food chain. After application of the screening procedure, priority chemicals can be identified as potentially emerging risk chemicals through the integration of exposure, environmental fate and toxicity. The default approach is to generate a single total score for each substance using a predefined weighting scenario. However, it is also possible to use a pivot table approach to combine the individual scores in different ways that reflect user-defined priorities, which enables a very flexible, iterative definition of screening criteria. Possible applications of the approaches are discussed using illustrative examples. Either approach can then be followed by in-depth evaluation of priority substances to ensure the identification of substances that present a real emerging chemical risk in the food chain.

Substance use and regional gray matter volume in individuals at high risk of psychosis.

PubMed

Stone, James M; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik; Barker, Gareth J; McGuire, Philip K

2012-02-01

Individuals with an at risk mental state (ARMS) are at greatly increased risk of developing a psychotic illness. Risk of transition to psychosis is associated with regionally reduced cortical gray matter volume. There has been considerable interest in the interaction between psychosis risk and substance use. In this study we investigate the relationship between alcohol, cannabis and nicotine use with gray matter volume in ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers. Twenty seven ARMS subjects and 27 healthy volunteers took part in the study. All subjects underwent volumetric MRI imaging. The relationship between regional gray matter volume and cannabis use, smoking, and alcohol use in controls and ARMS subjects was analysed using voxel-based morphometry. In any region where a significant relationship with drug was present, data were analysed to determine if there was any group difference in this relationship. Alcohol intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in cerebellum, cannabis intake was use was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in prefrontal cortex and tobacco intake was inversely correlated with gray matter volume in left temporal cortex. There were no significant interactions by group in any region. There is no evidence to support the hypothesis of increased susceptibility to harmful effects of drugs and alcohol on regional gray matter in ARMS subjects. However, alcohol, tobacco and cannabis at low to moderate intake may be associated with lower gray matter in both ARMS subjects and healthy volunteers-possibly representing low-level cortical damage or change in neural plasticity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study.

PubMed

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Prospective cohort study. Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered.

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study

PubMed Central

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

Objectives To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. Participants 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Methods Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. Results The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. Conclusions To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered. PMID:25232563

Subgroups at high risk for ischaemic heart disease:identification and validation in 67 000 individuals from the general population

PubMed Central

Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Dyson, Greg; Haase, Christiane L; Benn, Marianne; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Sing, Charles F

2015-01-01

Background The aetiology of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is complex and is influenced by a spectrum of environmental factors and susceptibility genes. Traditional statistical modelling considers such factors to act independently in an additive manner. The Patient Rule-Induction Method (PRIM) is a multi-model building strategy for evaluating risk attributable to context-dependent gene and environmental effects. Methods PRIM was applied to 9073 participants from the prospective Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS). Gender-specific cumulative incidences were estimated for subgroups defined by categories of age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides and by 94 single nucleotide variants (SNVs).Cumulative incidences for subgroups were validated using an independently ascertained sample of 58 240 participants from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). Results In the CCHS the overall cumulative incidences were 0.17 in women and 0.21 in men. PRIM identified six and four mutually exclusive subgroups in women and men, respectively, with cumulative incidences of IHD ranging from 0.02 to 0.34. Cumulative incidences of IHD generated by PRIM in the CCHS were validated in four of the six subgroups of women and two of the four subgroups of men in the CGPS. Conclusions PRIM identified high-risk subgroups characterized by specific contexts of selected values of traditional risk factors and genetic variants. These subgroups were validated in an independently ascertained cohort study. Thus, a multi-model strategy may identify groups of individuals with substantially higher risk of IHD than the overall risk for the general population. PMID:25361584

Psychoeducation to facilitate return to work in individuals on sick leave and at risk of having a mental disorder: protocol of a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Pedersen, Pernille; Søgaard, Hans Jørgen; Yde, Bjarne Frostholm; Labriola, Merete; Nohr, Ellen A; Jensen, Chris

2014-12-17

Sickness absence due to poor mental health is a common problem in many Western countries. To facilitate return to work, it may be important to identify individuals on sick leave and at risk of having a mental disorder and subsequently to offer appropriate treatment. Psychoeducation alone has not previously been used as a return to work intervention, but may be a promising tool to facilitate return to work. Therefore, the aim of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of psychoeducation designed specifically to facilitate return to work for individuals on sick leave and at risk of having a mental disorder. The psychoeducation was a supplement to the various standard offers provided by the job centres. The study is a randomised controlled trial, in which individuals on sick leave either receive psychoeducation and standard case management or standard case management alone. Participants were individuals with mental health symptoms, who had been on sick leave from part-time or full-time work or unemployment for about 4-8 weeks. The psychoeducational intervention was group-based and the course consisted of 2 hour sessions once a week for 6 weeks. The course was given by psychiatric nurses, a psychologist, a social worker, a physiotherapist and a person who had previously been on sick leave due to mental health problems. The sessions focused on stress and work life, and the purpose was to provide individuals on sick leave the skills to understand and improve their mental functioning.The primary outcome is the duration of sickness absence measured by register data. Secondary outcomes include psychological symptoms, mental health-related quality of life, and locus of control. These outcomes are measured by questionnaires at the start of the intervention and at 3 and 6 months follow-up. On the basis of this trial, the effect of psychoeducation for individuals on sick leave and at risk of having a mental disorder will be studied. The results will contribute to the

Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Embedded Measures on Outcomes of Kindergarteners Identified as At Risk for Reading Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Simmons, Deborah C.; Clemens, Nathan H.; Simmons, Leslie E.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Kwok, Oi-man; Coyne, Michael D.

2017-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of formative assessments embedded in a Tier 2 intervention curriculum for kindergarten students identified as at risk for reading difficulty. We examined when (i.e., months during the school year) measures could predict reading outcomes gathered at the end of kindergarten and whether the predictive…

Identifying Preschool Children at Risk of Later Reading Difficulties: Evaluation of Two Emergent Literacy Screening Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Shauna B.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

Emergent literacy skills are predictive of children's early reading success, and literacy achievement in early schooling declines more rapidly for children who are below-average readers. It is therefore important for teachers to identify accurately children at risk for later reading difficulty so children can be exposed to effective emergent…

Screening older adults at risk of falling with the Tinetti balance scale.

PubMed

Raîche, M; Hébert, R; Prince, F; Corriveau, H

2000-09-16

In a prospective study of 225 community dwelling people 75 years and older, we tested the validity of the Tinetti balance scale to predict individuals who will fall at least once during the following year. A score of 36 or less identified 7 of 10 fallers with 70% sensitivity and 52% specificity. With this cut-off score, 53% of the individuals were screened positive and presented a two-fold risk of falling. These characteristics support the use of this test to screen older people at risk of falling in order to include them in a preventive intervention.

219. Changes in Functional Networks Underlying Social Cognition Following Cognitive Training in Individuals at Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Haut, Kristen; Saxena, Abhishek; Yin, Hong; Carol, Emily; Dodell-Feder, David; Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Tully, Laura; Keshavan, Matcheri; Seidman, Larry J.; Nahum, Mor; Hooker, Christine

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Deficits in social cognition are prominent features of schizophrenia that play a large role in functional impairments and disability. Performance deficits in these domains are associated with altered activity in functional networks, including those that support social cognitive abilities such as emotion recognition. These social cognitive deficits and alterations in neural networks are present prior to the onset of frank psychotic symptoms and thus present a potential target for intervention in early phases of the illness, including in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. This study assessed changes in social cognitive functional networks following targeted cognitive training (TCT) in CHR individuals. Methods: 14 CHR subjects (7 male, mean age = 21.9) showing attenuated psychotic symptoms as assessed by the SIPS were included in the study. Subjects underwent a clinical evaluation and a functional MRI session prior to and subsequent to completing 40 hours (8 weeks) of targeted cognitive and social cognitive training using Lumosity and SocialVille. 14 matched healthy control (HC) subjects also underwent a single fMRI session as a comparison group for functional activity. Resting state fMRI was acquired as well as fMRI during performance of an emotion recognition task. Group level differences in BOLD activity between HC and CHR group before TCT, and CHR group before and after TCT were computed. Changes in social cognitive network functional connectivity at rest and during task performance was evaluated using seed-based connectivity analyses and psychophysiological interaction (PPI). Results: Prior to training, CHR individuals demonstrated hyperactivity in the amygdala, posterior cingulate, and superior temporal sulcus (STS) during emotion recognition, suggesting inefficient processing. This hyperactivity normalized somewhat after training, with CHR individuals showing less hyperactivity in the amygdala in response to emotional

Suicide risk factors among trans feminine individuals in Lebanon

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Rachel L.; Nehme, Simon; Aunon, Frances; de Vries, David; Wagner, Glenn

2016-01-01

Transgender women are disproportionately affected by high rates of depression and suicide attempts. It is therefore important to identify factors that influence suicidal risk, particularly in the Middle East where little research has examined the mental health of transgender women. We examined risk factors associated with suicide attempts among 54 trans feminine individuals in Beirut, Lebanon. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires and analyzed using bivariate statistics. Twenty-five (46%) participants reported having ever attempted suicide. Among them, only one participant received some kind of counseling in response to the attempted suicide. Low general social support, low social integration, and low support from peers were significantly associated with a history of attempted suicide, as were being more open about transgender identity in public and any hormone use (past or current). These findings suggest that progression in gender transition can have unintended consequences related to mental health and suicide risk, while social support systems can mitigate the impact of mental health problems. Some of these findings mirror other contexts around the globe and can inform mental health services for trans feminine individuals in Lebanon, the greater Middle East region, and other international settings. PMID:27616943

The Loudness Dependence of Auditory Evoked Potentials (LDAEP) in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Hagenmuller, Florence; Heekeren, Karsten; Meier, Magali; Theodoridou, Anastasia; Walitza, Susanne; Haker, Helene; Rössler, Wulf; Kawohl, Wolfram

2016-02-01

The Loudness Dependence of Auditory Evoked Potentials (LDAEP) is considered as an indicator of central serotonergic activity. Alteration of serotonergic neurotransmission was reported in bipolar disorders and schizophrenia. In line with previous reports on clinically manifest disorders, we expected a weaker LDAEP in subjects at risk for bipolar disorders and schizophrenia compared to healthy controls. We analyzed LDAEP of individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n=27), with high-risk status (n=74) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n=86) and healthy controls (n=47). The LDAEP did not differ between subjects at risk for schizophrenia or bipolar disorders and controls. Among subjects without medication (n=122), the at-risk-bipolar group showed a trend towards a weaker LDAEP than both the high-risk and the ultra-high-risk groups for schizophrenia. The LDAEP did not appear as a vulnerability marker for schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. This suggests that an altered LDAEP may not be measurable until the onset of clinically manifest disorder. However, the hypothesis that pathogenic mechanisms leading to bipolar disorders may differ from those leading to schizophrenia is supported. This is the first study investigating LDAEP in a population at risk for bipolar disorders. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis.

PubMed

Cannon, Tyrone D; Yu, Changhong; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E; Cadenhead, Kristin S; Cornblatt, Barbara A; Heinssen, Robert; Jeffries, Clark D; Mathalon, Daniel H; McGlashan, Thomas H; Perkins, Diana O; Seidman, Larry J; Tsuang, Ming T; Walker, Elaine F; Woods, Scott W; Kattan, Michael W

2016-10-01

Approximately 20%-35% of individuals 12-35 years old who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within 2 years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk cases vary considerably in risk. The authors sought to create a risk calculator, based on profiles of risk indicators, that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients. The study subjects were 596 clinical high-risk participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). The predictors examined were limited to those that are supported by previous studies and are readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1,000 bootstrap resamples. The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis. Stressful life events, trauma, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a concordance index of 0.71 and, as reported in an article by Carrión et al., published concurrently with this one, was validated in an independent external data set. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained clinical high-risk cases. Given that the risk calculator can be validly applied only for patients who screen positive on the Structured Clinical

Predicting the unpredictable? Identifying high-risk versus low-risk parents with intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

2010-09-01

This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parenting; and (iii) the impact of partner relationships on parental competency and risk status. Secondary data analysis was conducted on data gathered from 101 parents with IDs and 172 of their children, all of whom had been referred to a specialist parenting service over a 5 year period. Cross-tabulations were applied to the data to examine causal processes and to improve general understanding of the risks associated with families. Contrary to popular expectations IQ levels of the main parent, relationship status, parental age, employment, amenities, valued support and parents' perception of need were not identified as contributory factors distinguishing 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parents. Instead, 'high-risk' parenting associated more with parental reports of childhood trauma (emotional abuse and physical neglect in particular), parents' having additional special needs in addition to their IDs or parents who were raising a child with special needs. Other 'high-risk' factors identified related to the male partners of mothers with IDs, many of whom did not have IDs and/or whose histories included anti-social behaviors or criminality. The study identified some high-risk variables among parents with IDs that can distinguish them from low-risk parents with IDs. These findings generate challenges for agencies who attempt to capture the needs of parents with IDs and who endeavour to provide services to families deemed to be "at risk." These outcomes will be of special interest to the courts, especially when parents with IDs are involved in care proceedings. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Inventory of Personal Skills for Achievement: Validity and Reliability Study of an Instrument for Identifying Educationally At-Risk Junior [High] School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leaseburg, Melinda G.; And Others

This paper describes the development and test of an early-warning instrument for identifying at-risk students aged 10-15. A statistically sound test to identify at-risk high school students existed in the Personal Skills Map--Adolescent version (PSMA-A). This study used a modified version of PSM-A , which was renamed Personal Skills for…

Change Trajectories for the Youth Outcome Questionnaire Self-Report: Identifying Youth at Risk for Treatment Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannon, Jennifer A. N.; Warren, Jared S.; Nelson, Philip L.; Burlingame, Gary M.

2010-01-01

This study used longitudinal youth outcome data in routine mental health services to test a system for identifying cases at risk for treatment failure. Participants were 2,715 youth (M age = 14) served in outpatient managed care and community mental health settings. Change trajectories were developed using multilevel modeling of archival data.…

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; De Micheli, Andrea; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Davies, Cathy; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Oliver, Dominic; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Rocchetti, Matteo; Gavaghan, Lauren; Patel, Rashmi; McGuire, Philip

2018-02-15

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Identifying Learning Patterns of Children at Risk for Specific Reading Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barbot, Baptiste; Krivulskaya, Suzanna; Hein, Sascha; Reich, Jodi; Thuma, Philip E.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

2016-01-01

Differences in learning patterns of vocabulary acquisition in children at risk (+SRD) and not at risk (-SRD) for Specific Reading Disability (SRD) were examined using a microdevelopmental paradigm applied to the multi-trial Foreign Language Learning Task (FLLT; Baddeley et al., 1995). The FLLT was administered to 905 children from rural…

An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis

PubMed Central

Cannon, Tyrone D.; Yu, Changhong; Addington, Jean; Bearden, Carrie E.; Cadenhead, Kristin S.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.; Heinssen, Robert; Jeffries, Clark D.; Mathalon, Daniel H.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Perkins, Diana O.; Seidman, Larry J.; Tsuang, Ming T.; Walker, Elaine F.; Woods, Scott W.; Kattan, Michael

2016-01-01

Objective About 20–35% of individuals aged 12–30 years who meet criteria for a prodromal risk syndrome convert to psychosis within two years. However, this estimate ignores the fact that clinical high-risk (CHR) cases vary considerably in risk. Here we sought to create a risk calculator that can ascertain the probability of conversion to psychosis in individual patients based on profiles of risk indicators. The high risk category predicted by this calculator can inform research criteria going forward. Method Subjects were 596 CHR participants from the second phase of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 2) who were followed up to the time of conversion to psychosis or last contact (up to 2 years). Our scope was limited to predictors supported by prior studies and readily obtainable in general clinical settings. Time-to-event regression was used to build a multivariate model predicting conversion, with internal validation using 1000 bootstrap resamples. Results The 2-year probability of conversion to psychosis in this sample was 16%. Higher levels of unusual thought content and suspiciousness, greater decline in social functioning, lower verbal learning and memory performance, slower speed of processing, and younger age at baseline each contributed to individual risk for psychosis, while stressful life events, traumas, and family history of schizophrenia were not significant predictors. The multivariate model achieved a Concordance index of 0.71, and was validated in an independent external dataset. The results are instantiated in a web-based risk prediction tool envisioned to be most useful in research protocols involving the psychosis prodrome. Conclusions A risk calculator comparable in accuracy to those for cardiovascular disease and cancer is available to predict individualized conversion risks in newly ascertained CHR cases. Given that the risk calculator can only be validly applied for patients who screen positive on the Structured

General intellectual functioning as a buffer against theory-of-mind deficits in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Hur, Ji-Won; Byun, Min Soo; Shin, Na Young; Shin, Ye Seul; Kim, Sung Nyun; Jang, Joon Hwan; Kwon, Jun Soo

2013-09-01

The influence of neurocognition, including general intelligence, on theory of mind (ToM) among patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorder is controversial. The purpose of the present study was to identify the influences of the non-ToM cognition and general intelligence on ToM performance in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis. Fifty-five UHR subjects and 58 healthy controls (HCs) completed neurocognitive, verbal, and nonverbal ToM tasks. UHR individuals showed poorer performance in the two verbal ToM tasks, the false-belief task and the strange-story tasks. Moreover, the UHR subjects displayed poorer recall on the interference list of the verbal learning test. Linear regression analysis revealed that neurocognitive functioning, including executive functioning, working memory, and general intelligence, accounted for significant amounts of the variance in the results for UHR individuals: 20.4% in the false-belief task, 44.0% in the strange-story task, and 49.0% in the nonverbal cartoon task. Neurocognition, including general intelligence, was not a significant contributor to performance on ToM tasks in HCs. ToM deficits were not noted in UHR individuals with above-average IQ scores (≥ 110) compared with UHR subjects with IQ scores less than 110, who displayed significant differences on all ToM tasks compared with HCs. The present results suggest that ToM deficits in UHR individuals are complex and may be influenced by non-ToM cognition. Our findings are discussed in relation to the role of neurocognitive abilities in ToM-related impairments in UHR individuals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using the Care Dependency Scale for identifying patients at risk for pressure ulcer.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Ate; Kazimier, Hetty; Halfens, Ruud J G

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate risk screening for pressure ulcer by using the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) for patients receiving home care or admitted to a residential or nursing home in the Netherlands. Pressure ulcer is a serious and persistent problem for patients throughout the Western world. Pressure ulcer is among the most common adverse events in nursing practice and when a pressure ulcer occurs it has many consequences for patients and healthcare professionals. Cross-sectional design. The convenience sample consisted of 13,633 study participants, of whom 2639 received home care from 15 organisations, 4077 were patients from 67 residential homes and 6917 were admitted in 105 nursing homes. Data were taken from the Dutch National Prevalence Survey of Care Problems that was carried out in April 2012 in Dutch healthcare settings. For the three settings, cut-off points above 80% sensitivity were established, while in the residential home sample an almost 60% combined specificity score was identified. The CDS items 'Body posture' (home care), 'Getting dressed and undressed' (residential homes) and 'Mobility' (nursing homes) were the most significant variables which affect PU. The CDS is able to distinguish between patients at risk for pressure ulcer development and those not at risk in both home care and residential care settings. In nursing homes, the usefulness of the CDS for pressure ulcer detection is limited. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhanced understanding of predator-prey relationships using molecular methods to identify predator species, individual and sex.

PubMed

Mumma, Matthew A; Soulliere, Colleen E; Mahoney, Shane P; Waits, Lisette P

2014-01-01

Predator species identification is an important step in understanding predator-prey interactions, but predator identifications using kill site observations are often unreliable. We used molecular tools to analyse predator saliva, scat and hair from caribou calf kills in Newfoundland, Canada to identify the predator species, individual and sex. We sampled DNA from 32 carcasses using cotton swabs to collect predator saliva. We used fragment length analysis and sequencing of mitochondrial DNA to distinguish between coyote, black bear, Canada lynx and red fox and used nuclear DNA microsatellite analysis to identify individuals. We compared predator species detected using molecular tools to those assigned via field observations at each kill. We identified a predator species at 94% of carcasses using molecular methods, while observational methods assigned a predator species to 62.5% of kills. Molecular methods attributed 66.7% of kills to coyote and 33.3% to black bear, while observations assigned 40%, 45%, 10% and 5% to coyote, bear, lynx and fox, respectively. Individual identification was successful at 70% of kills where a predator species was identified. Only one individual was identified at each kill, but some individuals were found at multiple kills. Predator sex was predominantly male. We demonstrate the first large-scale evaluation of predator species, individual and sex identification using molecular techniques to extract DNA from swabs of wild prey carcasses. Our results indicate that kill site swabs (i) can be highly successful in identifying the predator species and individual responsible; and (ii) serve to inform and complement traditional methods. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preseason shoulder strength measurements in professional baseball pitchers: identifying players at risk for injury.

PubMed

Byram, Ian R; Bushnell, Brandon D; Dugger, Keith; Charron, Kevin; Harrell, Frank E; Noonan, Thomas J

2010-07-01

The ability to identify pitchers at risk for injury could be valuable to a professional baseball organization. To our knowledge, there have been no prior studies examining the predictive value of preseason strength measurements. Preseason weakness of shoulder external rotators is associated with increased risk of in-season throwing-related injury in professional baseball pitchers. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Preseason shoulder strength was measured for all pitchers in a professional baseball organization over a 5-year period (2001-2005). Prone internal rotation (IR), prone external rotation (PER), seated external rotation (SER), and supraspinatus (SS) strength were tested during spring training before each season. The players were then prospectively followed throughout the season for incidence of throwing-related injury. Injuries were categorized on an ordinal scale, with no injury, injury treated conservatively, and injury resulting in surgery delineated 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Subset analyses of shoulder injuries and of players with prior surgery were also performed. The association between strength measurements and injury was analyzed using Spearman rank correlation. A statistically significant association was observed for PER strength (P = .003), SER strength (P = .048), and SS strength (P = .006) with throwing-related injury requiring surgical intervention. Supraspinatus strength was also significantly associated with incidence of any shoulder injury (P = .031). There was an association between the ratio of PER/IR strength and incidence of shoulder injury (P = .037) and some evidence for an association with overall incidence of throwing-related injury (P = .051). No associations were noted in the subgroup of players with prior surgery. Preseason weakness of external rotation and SS strength is associated with in-season throwing-related injury resulting in surgical intervention in professional baseball pitchers. Thus, preseason strength

Identifying Trajectories of Adolescents' Depressive Phenomena: An Examination of Early Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazza, James J.; Fleming, Charles B.; Abbott, Robert D.; Haggerty, Kevin P.; Catalano, Richard F.

2010-01-01

Few studies have examined risk factors of childhood and early adolescent depressive symptomatology trajectories. This study examined self-report depressive symptomatology across a 6-year time period from 2nd to 8th grade to identify latent groups of individuals with similar patterns of depressive phenomena in a sample of 951 children (440 girls,…

Using lifestyle factors to identify individuals at higher risk of inflammatory polyarthritis (results from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk and the Norfolk Arthritis Register—the EPIC-2-NOAR Study)

PubMed Central

Lahiri, Manjari; Luben, Robert N; Morgan, Catharine; Bunn, Diane K; Marshall, Tarnya; Lunt, Mark; Verstappen, Suzanne M M; Symmons, Deborah P M; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Bruce, Ian N

2014-01-01

Objectives To investigate the association of lifestyle factors with risk of inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk, UK (EPIC-Norfolk) gathered lifestyle data from participants aged 40–79 years from 1993 to 1997. Individuals who subsequently developed IP were identified by linkage with the Norfolk Arthritis Register. A Cox proportional hazard model was developed, and a score assigned to each risk factor to calculate the odds of developing IP. Results 25 455 EPIC participants were followed for a median (IQR) of 14.2 (12.9, 15.3) years; 184 developed incident IP (138 cumulatively fulfilled criteria for RA; 107 were seropositive). Pack-years of smoking were associated with increased risk of IP and RA in men (HR 1.21 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.37) per 10-pack-years) and seropositive IP (HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.41)) for all. Diabetes mellitus was associated with increased risk of IP (HR 2.54 (95% CI 1.26 to 5.09)), while alcohol (HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.99) per unit/day) and higher social class (HR 0.36 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.89) for professionals vs manual workers) were associated with reduced risk. Body mass index was associated with seronegative IP (HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.39 to 5.46) for obese vs normal-weight participants). In women, parity (HR 2.81 (95% CI 1.37 to 5.76) for ≥2 vs no children) was associated with increased risk, and breast feeding (HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.94) for every 52 weeks of breast feeding) was inversely associated with risk. Risk factors from the model were used to generate a ‘risk score’. A total of 1159 (8.4%) women had scores reflecting a >3-fold increased risk of IP over those with a score of 0. Conclusions Several easily ascertained clinical and lifestyle factors can be used to stratify populations for risk of IP. PMID:23505230

Are your students ready for anatomy and physiology? Developing tools to identify students at risk for failure.

PubMed

Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

2015-06-01

High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online pilot survey was administered to 200 biology students. The survey results revealed several predictive factors related to academic preparation and prompted a comprehensive analysis of college records of >2,000 biology students over a 5-yr period. Using these historical data, a model that was 91% successful in predicting student success in these courses was developed. The results of the present study support the use of surveys and similar models to identify at-risk students and to provide guidance in the development of evidence-based advising programs and pedagogies. This comprehensive approach may be a tangible step in improving student success for students from a wide variety of backgrounds in anatomy and physiology courses. Copyright © 2015 The American Physiological Society.

Impact of Neurocognition on Social and Role Functioning in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PubMed Central

Carrión, Ricardo E.; Goldberg, Terry E.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Auther, Andrea M.; Correll, Christoph U.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.

2011-01-01

Objective Cognitive deficits have been well documented in schizophrenia and have been shown to impair quality of life and to compromise everyday functioning. Recent studies of adolescents and young adults at high risk for developing psychosis show that neurocognitive impairments are detectable before the onset of psychotic symptoms. However, it remains unclear how cognitive impairments affect functioning before the onset of psychosis. The authors assessed cognitive impairment in adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis and examined its impact on social and role functioning. Method A sample of 127 treatment-seeking patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and a group of 80 healthy comparison subjects were identified and recruited for research in the Recognition and Prevention Program. At baseline, participants were assessed with a comprehensive neurocognitive battery as well as measures of social and role functioning. Results Relative to healthy comparison subjects, clinical high-risk patients showed significant impairments in the domains of processing speed, verbal memory, executive function, working memory, visuospatial processing, motor speed, sustained attention, and language. Clinical high-risk patients also displayed impaired social and role functioning at baseline. Among patients with attenuated positive symptoms, processing speed was related to social and role functioning at baseline. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that cognitive and functional impairments are detectable in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis before the onset of psychotic illness and that processing speed appears to be an important cognitive predictor of poor functioning. PMID:21536691

Impact of neurocognition on social and role functioning in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Carrión, Ricardo E; Goldberg, Terry E; McLaughlin, Danielle; Auther, Andrea M; Correll, Christoph U; Cornblatt, Barbara A

2011-08-01

Cognitive deficits have been well documented in schizophrenia and have been shown to impair quality of life and to compromise everyday functioning. Recent studies of adolescents and young adults at high risk for developing psychosis show that neurocognitive impairments are detectable before the onset of psychotic symptoms. However, it remains unclear how cognitive impairments affect functioning before the onset of psychosis. The authors assessed cognitive impairment in adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis and examined its impact on social and role functioning. A sample of 127 treatment-seeking patients at clinical high risk for psychosis and a group of 80 healthy comparison subjects were identified and recruited for research in the Recognition and Prevention Program. At baseline, participants were assessed with a comprehensive neurocognitive battery as well as measures of social and role functioning. Relative to healthy comparison subjects, clinical high-risk patients showed significant impairments in the domains of processing speed, verbal memory, executive function, working memory, visuospatial processing, motor speed, sustained attention, and language. Clinical high-risk patients also displayed impaired social and role functioning at baseline. Among patients with attenuated positive symptoms, processing speed was related to social and role functioning at baseline. These findings demonstrate that cognitive and functional impairments are detectable in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis before the onset of psychotic illness and that processing speed appears to be an important cognitive predictor of poor functioning.

Identifying elderly people at risk for cognitive decline by using the 2-step test.

PubMed

Maruya, Kohei; Fujita, Hiroaki; Arai, Tomoyuki; Hosoi, Toshiki; Ogiwara, Kennichi; Moriyama, Shunnichiro; Ishibashi, Hideaki

2018-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose is to verify the effectiveness of the 2-step test in predicting cognitive decline in elderly individuals. [Subjects and Methods] One hundred eighty-two participants aged over 65 years underwent the 2-step test, cognitive function tests and higher level competence testing. Participants were classified as Robust, <1.3, and <1.1 using criteria regarding the locomotive syndrome risk stage for the 2-step test, variables were compared between groups. In addition, ordered logistic analysis was used to analyze cognitive functions as independent variables in the three groups, using the 2-step test results as the dependent variable, with age, gender, etc. as adjustment factors. [Results] In the crude data, the <1.3 and <1.1 groups were older and displayed lower motor and cognitive functions than did the Robust group. Furthermore, the <1.3 group exhibited significantly lower memory retention than did the Robust group. The 2-step test was related to the Stroop test (β: 0.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.12). [Conclusion] The finding is that the risk stage of the 2-step test is related to cognitive functions, even at an initial risk stage. The 2-step test may help with earlier detection and implementation of prevention measures for locomotive syndrome and mild cognitive impairment.

An individual risk prediction model for lung cancer based on a study in a Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Xu; Ma, Kewei; Cui, Jiuwei; Chen, Xiao; Jin, Lina; Li, Wei

2015-01-01

Early detection and diagnosis remains an effective yet challenging approach to improve the clinical outcome of patients with cancer. Low-dose computed tomography screening has been suggested to improve the diagnosis of lung cancer in high-risk individuals. To make screening more efficient, it is necessary to identify individuals who are at high risk. We conducted a case-control study to develop a predictive model for identification of such high-risk individuals. Clinical data from 705 lung cancer patients and 988 population-based controls were used for the development and evaluation of the model. Associations between environmental variants and lung cancer risk were analyzed with a logistic regression model. The predictive accuracy of the model was determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the optimal operating point. Our results indicate that lung cancer risk factors included older age, male gender, lower education level, family history of cancer, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower body mass index, smoking cigarettes, a diet with less seafood, vegetables, fruits, dairy products, soybean products and nuts, a diet rich in meat, and exposure to pesticides and cooking emissions. The area under the curve was 0.8851 and the optimal operating point was obtained. With a cutoff of 0.35, the false positive rate, true positive rate, and Youden index were 0.21, 0.87, and 0.66, respectively. The risk prediction model for lung cancer developed in this study could discriminate high-risk from low-risk individuals.

Increase in physical activity and cardiometabolic risk profile change during lifestyle intervention in primary healthcare: 1-year follow-up study among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Kujala, Urho M; Jokelainen, Jari; Oksa, Heikki; Saaristo, Timo; Rautio, Nina; Moilanen, Leena; Korpi-Hyövälti, Eeva; Saltevo, Juha; Vanhala, Mauno; Niskanen, Leo; Peltonen, Markku; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Uusitupa, Matti; Keinänen-Kiukaannemi, Sirkka

2011-01-01

Objectives To investigate the association between increase in physical activity and changes in cardiometabolic risk factors during a lifestyle intervention programme in routine clinical settings. Design Prospective follow-up. Setting 400 primary healthcare centres and occupational healthcare outpatient clinics in Finland. Participants Individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes identified in the implementation project of the national diabetes prevention programme (FIN-D2D) and participating in baseline and 1-year follow-up visits. Final study group comprised the 1871 non-diabetic participants who responded at follow-up visit to a question on stability versus increase of physical activity. Interventions Lifestyle intervention. Primary outcome measures Cardiometabolic risk factors (body composition, blood pressure and those measured from fasting venous blood samples) measured at baseline and follow-up visits. Results Of the participants, 310 (16.6% of all responders) reported at follow-up having clearly increased their physical activity during the past year, while 1380 (73.8%) had been unable to increase their physical activity. Those who increased their activity decreased their weight by 3.6 kg (95% CI 2.9 to 4.3, age and sex adjusted, p<0.001) and waist circumference by 3.6 cm (95% CI 2.9 to 4.3, p<0.001) more than those who did not increase their activity. Similarly, those who increased their physical activity had greater reductions in total cholesterol (group difference in reduction 0.17 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.28, p=0.002), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.16 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.26, p=0.001), low-density lipoprotein/high-density lipoprotein ratio (0.17, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.25, p<0.001) as well as fasting glucose (0.09 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.15, p=0.004) and 2 h glucose levels (0.36 mmol/l, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.55, p=0.023) than those who did not increase their physical activity. Conclusion Increasing physical activity seems to be an important feature of

Views of Low-Income Women of Color at Increased Risk for Breast Cancer.

PubMed

E Anderson, Emily; Tejada, Silvia; B Warnecke, Richard; Hoskins, Kent

2018-01-01

Individual risk assessment (IRA) for breast cancer may increase adherence to risk-appropriate screening and prevention measures. However, knowledge gaps exist regarding how best to communicate IRA results and support women at increased risk in future health care decisions, in part because patients conceptualize and make meaning of risk differently from the medical community. Better understanding the views of low-income women of color identified as being at increased risk for breast cancer can inform efforts to conduct IRA in an ethical and respectful manner. We conducted in-depth interviews with 13 low-income African American and Latina women who receive care at a federally qualified health center (FQHC) and had recently learned of their increased risk for breast cancer. These interviews explored their experience of the IRA process, their interpretation of what being at increased risk means, and their reactions to provider recommendations. Eight key themes were identified. We conclude with recommendations for the implementation of IRA for breast cancer in underserved primary care settings.

Evaluation of the modified FINDRISC to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes among middle-aged white and black ARIC study participants.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Manjusha; Foraker, Randi E; McNeill, Ann M; Girman, Cynthia; Golden, Sherita H; Rosamond, Wayne D; Duncan, Bruce; Schmidt, Maria Ines; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

2017-09-01

To evaluate a modified Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) for predicting the risk of incident diabetes among white and black middle-aged participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We assessed 9754 ARIC cohort participants who were free of diabetes at baseline. Logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate a modified FINDRISC for predicting incident diabetes after 9 years of follow-up, overall and by race/gender group. The modified FINDRISC used comprised age, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure medication and family history. The mean FINDRISC (range, 2 [lowest risk] to 17 [highest risk]) for black women was higher (9.9 ± 3.6) than that for black men (7.6 ± 3.9), white women (8.0 ± 3.6) and white men (7.6 ± 3.5). The incidence of diabetes increased generally across deciles of FINDRISC for all 4 race/gender groups. ROC curve statistics for the FINDRISC showed the highest area under the curve for white women (0.77) and the lowest for black men (0.70). We used a modified FINDRISC to predict the 9-year risk of incident diabetes in a biracial US population. The modified risk score can be useful for early screening of incident diabetes in biracial populations, which may be helpful for early interventions to delay or prevent diabetes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

GWAS-identified schizophrenia risk SNPs at TSPAN18 are highly diverged between Europeans and East Asians.

PubMed

Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Su, Bing

2016-12-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified multiple schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants for samples of European and East Asian descent, but most of the identified susceptibility variants are population-specific to either Europeans or East Asians. This strong genetic heterogeneity suggests that differential population histories may play a role in SCZ susceptibility. Here, we explored this possibility by examining the allele frequency divergence of 136 previously reported genome-wide SCZ risk SNPs between European and East Asian populations. Our results showed that two SNPs (rs11038167 and rs11038172) at TSPAN18, reported as genome-wide significant SCZ risk variants in Han Chinese, were entirely monomorphic in Europeans, indicating a deep between-population divergence at this gene locus. To explore the evolutionary history of TSPAN18 in East Asians, we conducted population genetic analyses including multiple neutrality tests, the haplotype-based iHS and EHH tests, as well as haplotype bifurcation map and network constructions. We found that the protective allele of rs11038172 (G allele) had a long extended haplotype with much slower decay compared to the A allele. The star-like shape of the G-allele-carrying haplotypes indicates a recent enrichment in East Asians. Together, the evidences suggest that the protective allele of rs11038172 has experienced recent Darwinian positive selection in East Asians. These findings provide new insights that may help explain the strong genetic heterogeneity in SCZ risk and previous inconsistent association results for SCZ among both Europeans and East Asians. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Individualism-collectivism, self-efficacy, and other factors associated with risk taking among gay Asian and Caucasian men.

PubMed

Mao, Limin; Van de Ven, Paul; McCormick, John

2004-02-01

A theoretical framework, which included perspectives of individualism-collectivism and self-efficacy, was used to investigate factors associated with sexual risk practice among gay Asian and Caucasian men. "Risk" was defined as unprotected anal intercourse with any casual partner or with a regular partner whose HIV status was not concordant with the participant's. Altogether, 201 Caucasian and 199 Asian gay men, largely recruited from gay social venues in inner Sydney, completed an anonymous questionnaire. Most participants were gay self-identified and gay community attached, and more than half of the Asian men had been living in Sydney for at least 3 years. Overall, the Asian men were more collectivist oriented and the Caucasian men more individualist oriented. Data analyses revealed that higher self-efficacy in avoiding casual risk encounters and smaller proportion of gay friends were associated with less risk. The inclusion of individualism-collectivism and social cognitive variables in the examination of sexual risk practices among gay men from different cultural backgrounds holds promise.

High-Risk Sexual Behavior at Social Venues in Madagascar

PubMed Central

KHAN, MARIA R.; RASOLOFOMANANA, JUSTIN R.; McCLAMROCH, KRISTI J.; RALISIMALALA, ANDRIAMAMPIANINA; ZAFIMANJAKA, MAURICE G.; BEHETS, FRIEDA; WEIR, SHARON S.

2018-01-01

Background Persistent high levels of sexually transmitted infection (STI) in Madagascar indicate current prevention strategies are inadequate. STI/HIV prevention based in social venues may play an important role in reaching individuals at risk of infection. We identified venues where people meet sexual partners and measured the need and potential for venue-based prevention. Methods Interviews were conducted in 7 Madagascar towns with 1) community informants to identify social venues, 2) individuals socializing at a sample of venues to assess sexual behavior among venue patrons, and 3) venue representatives to assess the potential for venue-based intervention. Results Community informants identified numerous venues (range: 67–211 venues, depending on the town); streets, bars, and hotels were most commonly reported. Among 2982 individuals socializing at venues, 78% of men and 74% of women reported new sexual partnership or sex trade for money, goods, or services in the past 4 weeks and 19% of men and 18% of women reported symptoms suggestive of STI in the past 4 weeks. STI symptom levels were disproportionately high among respondents reporting either sex trade or new sexual partnership in the past 4 weeks. Twenty-eight percent of men and 41% of women reported condom use during the last sex act with a new partner. Although 24% to 45% of venues had hosted STI/HIV interventions, interventions were deemed possible at 73% to 90% venues according to 644 interviews with venue representatives. Conclusions Venue-based intervention is possible and would reach a spectrum of populations vulnerable to STI/HIV including sex workers, their clients, and other high-risk populations. PMID:18496471

Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

PubMed

Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

2017-11-15

This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still

'At-risk' individuals' responses to direct to consumer advertising of prescription drugs: a nationally representative cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Khalil Zadeh, Neda; Robertson, Kirsten; Green, James A

2017-12-06

The factors determining individuals' self-reported behavioural responses to direct to consumer advertising of prescription drugs were explored with an emphasis on 'at-risk' individuals' responses. Nationally representative cross-sectional survey. Community living adults in New Zealand. 2057 adults (51% women). Self-reported behavioural responses to drug advertising (asking a physician for a prescription, asking a physician for more information about an illness, searching the internet for more information regarding an illness and asking a pharmacist for more information about a drug). Multivariate logistic regressions determined whether participants' self-reported behavioural responses to drug advertising were predicted by attitudes towards advertising and drug advertising, judgements about safety and effectiveness of advertised drugs, self-reported health status, materialism, online search behaviour as well as demographic variables. Identifying as Indian and to a less extent Chinese, Māori and 'other' ethnicities were the strongest predictors of one or more self-reported responses (ORs 1.76-5.00, Ps < 0.05). Poorer self-reported health status (ORs 0.90-0.94, all Ps<0.05), favourable attitude towards drug advertising (ORs 1.34-1.61, all Ps<0.001) and searching for medical information online (ORs 1.32-2.35, all Ps<0.01) predicted all self-reported behavioural outcomes. Older age (ORs 1.01-1.02, Ps<0.01), less education (OR 0.89, P<0.01), lower income (ORs 0.89-0.91, Ps<0.05) and higher materialism (ORs 1.02-1.03, Ps<0.01) also predicted one or more self-reported responses. Taken together, the findings suggest individuals, especially those who are 'at-risk' (ie, with poorer self-reported health status, older, less educated, lower income and ethnic minorities), may be more vulnerable to drug advertising and may make uninformed decisions accordingly. The outcomes raise significant concerns relating to the ethicality of drug advertising and suggest a need for stricter

Environmental risk assessment of triclosan and ibuprofen in marine sediments using individual and sub-individual endpoints.

PubMed

Pusceddu, F H; Choueri, R B; Pereira, C D S; Cortez, F S; Santos, D R A; Moreno, B B; Santos, A R; Rogero, J R; Cesar, A

2018-01-01

The guidelines for the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) recommend the use of standard ecotoxicity assays and the assessment of endpoints at the individual level to evaluate potential effects of PPCP on biota. However, effects at the sub-individual level can also affect the ecological fitness of marine organisms chronically exposed to PPCP. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the environmental risk of two PPCP in marine sediments: triclosan (TCS) and ibuprofen (IBU), using sub-individual and developmental endpoints. The environmental levels of TCS and IBU were quantified in marine sediments from the vicinities of the Santos submarine sewage outfall (Santos Bay, São Paulo, Brazil) at 15.14 and 49.0 ng g -1 , respectively. A battery (n = 3) of chronic bioassays (embryo-larval development) with a sea urchin (Lytechinus variegatus) and a bivalve (Perna perna) were performed using two exposure conditions: sediment-water interface and elutriates. Moreover, physiological stress through the Neutral Red Retention Time Assay (NRRT) was assessed in the estuarine bivalve Mytella charruana exposed to TCS and IBU spiked sediments. These compounds affected the development of L. variegatus and P. perna (75 ng g -1 for TCS and 15 ng g -1 for IBU), and caused a significant decrease in M. charruana lysosomal membrane stability at environmentally relevant concentrations (0.08 ng g -1 for TCS and 0.15 ng g -1 for IBU). Chemical and ecotoxicological data were integrated and the risk quotient estimated for TCS and IBU were higher than 1.0, indicating a high environmental risk of these compounds in sediments. These are the first data of sediment risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and personal care products of Latin America. In addition, the results suggest that the ERA based only on individual-level and standard toxicity tests may overlook other biological effects that can affect the health of marine organisms

Cumulative impact of common genetic variants and other risk factors on colorectal cancer risk in 42,103 individuals

PubMed Central

Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M.; Ballereau, Stephane; Brewster, David H.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Schafmayer, Clemens; Hampe, Jochen; Völzke, Henry; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; von Holst, Susanna; Picelli, Simone; Lindblom, Annika; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Casey, Graham; Duggan, David; Newcomb, Polly; Abulí, Anna; Bessa, Xavier; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Zanke, Brent W.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Gallinger, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Walther, Axel; Kerr, David; Lubbe, Steven; Broderick, Peter; Chandler, Ian; Pittman, Alan; Penegar, Steven; Campbell, Harry; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

2016-01-01

Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it

Stigma related to labels and symptoms in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Yang, Lawrence H; Link, Bruce G; Ben-David, Shelly; Gill, Kelly E; Girgis, Ragy R; Brucato, Gary; Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J; Corcoran, Cheryl M

2015-10-01

Despite advances that the psychosis "clinical high-risk" (CHR) identification offers, risk of stigma exists. Awareness of and agreement with stereotypes has not yet been evaluated in CHR individuals. Furthermore, the relative stigma associated with symptoms, as opposed to the label of risk, is not known, which is critical because CHR identification may reduce symptom-related stigma. Thirty-eight CHR subjects were ascertained using standard measures from the Center of Prevention and Evaluation/New York State Psychiatric Institute/ Columbia University. Labeling-related measures adapted to the CHR group included "stereotype awareness and self-stigma" ("Stereotype awareness", "Stereotype Agreement", "Negative emotions [shame]"), and a parallel measure of "Negative emotions (shame)" for symptoms. These measures were examined in relation to symptoms of anxiety and depression, adjusting for core CHR symptoms (e.g. attenuated psychotic symptoms). CHR participants endorsed awareness of mental illness stereotypes, but largely did not themselves agree with these stereotypes. Furthermore, CHR participants described more stigma associated with symptoms than they did with the risk-label itself. Shame related to symptoms was associated with depression, while shame related to the risk-label was associated with anxiety. Both stigma of the risk-label and of symptoms contribute to the experience of CHR individuals. Stereotype awareness was relatively high and labeling-related shame was associated with increased anxiety. Yet limited agreement with stereotypes indicated that labeling-related stigma had not fully permeated self-conceptions. Furthermore, symptom-related stigma appeared more salient overall and was linked with increased depression, suggesting that alleviating symptom-related shame via treating symptoms might provide major benefit. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

2012-01-01

The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

Individual versus systemic risk and the Regulator's Dilemma.

PubMed

Beale, Nicholas; Rand, David G; Battey, Heather; Croxson, Karen; May, Robert M; Nowak, Martin A

2011-08-02

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 exposed critical weaknesses in the financial system. Many proposals for financial reform address the need for systemic regulation--that is, regulation focused on the soundness of the whole financial system and not just that of individual institutions. In this paper, we study one particular problem faced by a systemic regulator: the tension between the distribution of assets that individual banks would like to hold and the distribution across banks that best supports system stability if greater weight is given to avoiding multiple bank failures. By diversifying its risks, a bank lowers its own probability of failure. However, if many banks diversify their risks in similar ways, then the probability of multiple failures can increase. As more banks fail simultaneously, the economic disruption tends to increase disproportionately. We show that, in model systems, the expected systemic cost of multiple failures can be largely explained by two global parameters of risk exposure and diversity, which can be assessed in terms of the risk exposures of individual actors. This observation hints at the possibility of regulatory intervention to promote systemic stability by incentivizing a more diverse diversification among banks. Such intervention offers the prospect of an additional lever in the armory of regulators, potentially allowing some combination of improved system stability and reduced need for additional capital.

Individual versus systemic risk and the Regulator's Dilemma

PubMed Central

Beale, Nicholas; Rand, David G.; Battey, Heather; Croxson, Karen; May, Robert M.; Nowak, Martin A.

2011-01-01

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 exposed critical weaknesses in the financial system. Many proposals for financial reform address the need for systemic regulation—that is, regulation focused on the soundness of the whole financial system and not just that of individual institutions. In this paper, we study one particular problem faced by a systemic regulator: the tension between the distribution of assets that individual banks would like to hold and the distribution across banks that best supports system stability if greater weight is given to avoiding multiple bank failures. By diversifying its risks, a bank lowers its own probability of failure. However, if many banks diversify their risks in similar ways, then the probability of multiple failures can increase. As more banks fail simultaneously, the economic disruption tends to increase disproportionately. We show that, in model systems, the expected systemic cost of multiple failures can be largely explained by two global parameters of risk exposure and diversity, which can be assessed in terms of the risk exposures of individual actors. This observation hints at the possibility of regulatory intervention to promote systemic stability by incentivizing a more diverse diversification among banks. Such intervention offers the prospect of an additional lever in the armory of regulators, potentially allowing some combination of improved system stability and reduced need for additional capital. PMID:21768387

Self-Reported Adherence among Individuals at High Risk of Metabolic Syndrome: Effect of Knowledge and Attitude.

PubMed

Alefishat, Eman A; Abu Farha, Rana K; Al-Debei, Mutaz M

2017-01-01

This study aimed to evaluate factors that affect adherence in individuals at high risk of metabolic syndrome, with a focus on knowledge and attitude effect. A sample of 900 high-risk individuals with metabolic syndrome was recruited in this cross-sectional study. During the study period, all participants filled in validated structured questionnaires to evaluate the adherence to different management options of metabolic syndrome, knowledge about the syndrome, and health-related attitude. Simple linear regression followed by multiple linear regression analysis were used to evaluate the effect of knowledge, attitude, and other factors on participants' adherence to both medications and lifestyle changes. Of the 900 participants, 436 (48.4%) were nonadherent to medications and 813 (90.3%) were nonadherent to lifestyle changes. Increasing age (r = 0.140, p = 0.000), the presence of hypertension (r = 0.075, p = 0.036), and a more positive attitude toward health (r = 0.230, p = 0.000) were significantly associated with increasing adherence to medications. Higher educational level (r = 0.085, p = 0.023), higher knowledge score (r = 0.135, p = 0.001), and more positive attitude toward health (r = 0.183, p = 0.000) were found to significantly increase the adherence to lifestyle changes, while central obesity (r = -0.106, p = 0.003) was found to significantly decrease the adherence to lifestyle changes. Patients' knowledge about metabolic syndrome and attitude to health affected adherence rates in patients at high risk of metabolic syndrome. Hence, we suggest the need to incorporate patients' educational programs into current management of metabolic syndrome. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Online self-test identifies women at high familial breast cancer risk in population-based breast cancer screening without inducing anxiety or distress.

PubMed

van Erkelens, A; Sie, A S; Manders, P; Visser, A; Duijm, L E; Mann, R M; Ten Voorde, M; Kroeze, H; Prins, J B; Hoogerbrugge, N

2017-06-01

Identifying high familial breast cancer (FBC) risk improves detection of yet unknown BRCA1/2-mutation carriers, for whom BC risk is both highly likely and potentially preventable. We assessed whether a new online self-test could identify women at high FBC risk in population-based BC screening without inducing anxiety or distress. After their visit for screening mammography, women were invited by email to take an online self-test for identifying highly increased FBC risk-based on Dutch guidelines. Exclusion criteria were previously diagnosed as increased FBC risk or a personal history of BC. Anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory Dutch Version), distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale) and BC risk perception were assessed using questionnaires, which were completed immediately before and after taking the online self-test and 2 weeks later. Of the 562 women invited by email, 406 (72%) completed the online self-test while 304 also completed questionnaires (response rate 54%). After exclusion criteria, 287 (51%) were included for data analysis. Median age was 56 years (range 50-74). A high or moderate FBC risk was identified in 12 (4%) and three (1%) women, respectively. After completion of the online self-test, anxiety and BC risk perception were decreased while distress scores remained unchanged. Levels were below clinical relevance. Most women (85%) would recommend the self-test; few (3%) would not. The online self-test identified previously unknown women at high FBC risk (4%), who may carry a BRCA1/2-mutation, without inducing anxiety or distress. We therefore recommend offering this self-test to women who attend population-based screening mammography for the first time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-Care: A Registry for Individuals at Increased Risk for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Sperling, Dylan; Jandorf, Lina; Sriphanlop, Pathu; Martinez, Clarissa; Brown, Karen L; Soper, Emily R; Hiraki, Susan; Itzkowitz, Steven H

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading causes of cancer death for both men and women in the United States. Several factors can increase one’s risk of CRC, including a personal or family history of CRC, a diagnosis or family history of a hereditary colon cancer syndrome, or a diagnosis of chronic inflammatory bowel disease. The purpose of this project was to create a colorectal cancer registry (Co-Care) for individuals with a personal or family history of CRC, and those with disorders of the colon or rectum that are associated with an increased risk for developing CRC. Methods: To be eligible for the registry, patients either had a personal or family history of CRC, a diagnosis or family history of Lynch syndrome, familial adenomatous polyposis, or a diagnosis of Crohn’s colitis or ulcerative colitis with dysplasia. Participants were recruited after seeing their gastroenterologist or genetic counselor, or after undergoing a full or partial colectomy at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City. Eligible patients who agreed to participate were interviewed by a member of the research staff and asked a wide range of questions pertaining to CRC risk. RESULTS: A total of 224 patients were enrolled in the registry. Participants are mostly white, born in the United States, and married, with a bachelor’s or graduate degree, reporting an annual household income of $100,000 or more. The largest portion have a family history of CRC (27.2%), and almost half of participants are of Jewish descent (46.2%) and have undergone full or partial colectomy (48.2%). More than half of participants have neither received genetic counseling (54.5%) nor undergone genetic testing (59.7%). Only 3.6% report that they currently smoke cigarettes, and 41.1% consume alcohol at least once per week. Lastly, 18.3%, 10.3%, and 27.7% of participants report that they currently take aspirin, folic acid/folate pills or tablets, or calcium pills/tablets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This

Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

PubMed Central

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

2015-01-01

Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

PubMed

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

2015-10-01

Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

PubMed

Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

2016-07-01

To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tensor-based morphometry of cannabis use on brain structure in individuals at elevated genetic risk of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Welch, K A; Moorhead, T W; McIntosh, A M; Owens, D G C; Johnstone, E C; Lawrie, S M

2013-10-01

Schizophrenia is associated with various brain structural abnormalities, including reduced volume of the hippocampi, prefrontal lobes and thalami. Cannabis use increases the risk of schizophrenia but reports of brain structural abnormalities in the cannabis-using population have not been consistent. We used automated image analysis to compare brain structural changes over time in people at elevated risk of schizophrenia for familial reasons who did and did not use cannabis. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were obtained from subjects at high familial risk of schizophrenia at entry to the Edinburgh High Risk Study (EHRS) and approximately 2 years later. Differential grey matter (GM) loss in those exposed (n=23) and not exposed to cannabis (n=32) in the intervening period was compared using tensor-based morphometry (TBM). Cannabis exposure was associated with significantly greater loss of right anterior hippocampal (pcorrected=0.029, t=3.88) and left superior frontal lobe GM (pcorrected=0.026, t=4.68). The former finding remained significant even after the exclusion of individuals who had used other drugs during the inter-scan interval. Using an automated analysis of longitudinal data, we demonstrate an association between cannabis use and GM loss in currently well people at familial risk of developing schizophrenia. This observation may be important in understanding the link between cannabis exposure and the subsequent development of schizophrenia.

Individualizing Risk of Multidrug-Resistant Pathogens in Community-Onset Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Falcone, Marco; Russo, Alessandro; Giannella, Maddalena; Cangemi, Roberto; Scarpellini, Maria Gabriella; Bertazzoni, Giuliano; Alarcón, José Martínez; Taliani, Gloria; Palange, Paolo; Farcomeni, Alessio; Vestri, Annarita; Bouza, Emilio; Violi, Francesco; Venditti, Mario

2015-01-01

Introduction The diffusion of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria has created the need to identify risk factors for acquiring resistant pathogens in patients living in the community. Objective To analyze clinical features of patients with community-onset pneumonia due to MDR pathogens, to evaluate performance of existing scoring tools and to develop a bedside risk score for an early identification of these patients in the Emergency Department. Patients and Methods This was an open, observational, prospective study of consecutive patients with pneumonia, coming from the community, from January 2011 to January 2013. The new score was validated on an external cohort of 929 patients with pneumonia admitted in internal medicine departments participating at a multicenter prospective study in Spain. Results A total of 900 patients were included in the study. The final logistic regression model consisted of four variables: 1) one risk factor for HCAP, 2) bilateral pulmonary infiltration, 3) the presence of pleural effusion, and 4) the severity of respiratory impairment calculated by use of PaO2/FiO2 ratio. A new risk score, the ARUC score, was developed; compared to Aliberti, Shorr, and Shindo scores, this point score system has a good discrimination performance (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow, χ2 = 7.64; p = 0.469). The new score outperformed HCAP definition in predicting etiology due to MDR organism. The performance of this bedside score was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60-0.77). Conclusion Physicians working in ED should adopt simple risk scores, like ARUC score, to select the most appropriate antibiotic regimens. This individualized approach may help clinicians to identify those patients who need an empirical broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy. PMID:25860142

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

The Art of Athlete Leadership: Identifying High-Quality Athlete Leadership at the Individual and Team Level Through Social Network Analysis.

PubMed

Fransen, Katrien; Van Puyenbroeck, Stef; Loughead, Todd M; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

2015-06-01

This research aimed to introduce social network analysis as a novel technique in sports teams to identify the attributes of high-quality athlete leadership, both at the individual and at the team level. Study 1 included 25 sports teams (N = 308 athletes) and focused on athletes' general leadership quality. Study 2 comprised 21 sports teams (N = 267 athletes) and focused on athletes' specific leadership quality as a task, motivational, social, and external leader. The extent to which athletes felt connected with their leader proved to be most predictive for athletes' perceptions of that leader's quality on each leadership role. Also at the team level, teams with higher athlete leadership quality were more strongly connected. We conclude that social network analysis constitutes a valuable tool to provide more insight in the attributes of high-quality leadership both at the individual and at the team level.

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

FDG and Amyloid PET in Cognitively Normal Individuals at Risk for Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Murray, John; Tsui, Wai H.; Li, Yi; McHugh, Pauline; Williams, Schantel; Cummings, Megan; Pirraglia, Elizabeth; Solnes, Lilja; Osorio, Ricardo; Glodzik, Lidia; Vallabhajosula, Shankar; Drzezga, Alexander; Minoshima, Satoshi; de Leon, Mony J.; Mosconi, Lisa

2014-01-01

Having a parent affected by late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a major risk factor for cognitively normal (NL) individuals. This study explores the potential of PET with 18F-FDG and the amyloid- β (Aβ) tracer 11C-Pittsburgh Compound B (PiB) for detection of individual risk in NL adults with AD-parents. Methods FDG− and PiB-PET was performed in 119 young to late-middle aged NL individuals including 80 NL with positive family history of AD (FH+) and 39 NL with negative family history of any dementia (FH−). The FH+ group included 50 subjects with maternal (FHm) and 30 with paternal family history (FHp). Individual FDG and PiB scans were Z scored on a voxel-wise basis relative to modality-specific reference databases using automated procedures and rated as positive or negative (+/−) for AD-typical abnormalities using predefined criteria. To determine the effect of age, the cohort was separated into younger (49 ± 9 y) and older (68 ± 5 y) groups relative to the median age (60 y). Results Among individuals of age >60 y, as compared to controls, NL FH+ showed a higher frequency of FDG+ scans vs. FH− (53% vs. 6% p < 0.003), and a trend for PiB+ scans (27% vs. 11%; p = 0.19). This effect was observed for both FHm and FHp groups. Among individuals of age ≤60 y, NL FHm showed a higher frequency of FDG+ scans (29%) compared to FH− (5%, p = 0.04) and a trend compared to FHp (11%) (p = 0.07), while the distribution of PiB+ scans was not different between groups. In both age cohorts, FDG+ scans were more frequent than PiB+ scans among NL FH+, especially FHm (p < 0.03). FDG-PET was a significant predictor of FH+ status. Classification according to PiB status was significantly less successful. Conclusions Automated analysis of FDG− and PiB-PET demonstrates higher rates of abnormalities in at-risk FH+ vs FH− subjects, indicating potentially ongoing early AD-pathology in this population. The frequency of metabolic abnormalities was higher than that of A�

An Inverse U-Shaped Curve of Resting-State Networks in Individuals at High Risk of Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Ye, Qing; Chen, Haifeng; Su, Fan; Shu, Hao; Gong, Liang; Xie, Chunming; Zhou, Hong; Bai, Feng

Higher functional connectivity (FC) in resting-state networks has been shown in individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) by many studies. However, the longitudinal trajectories of the FC remain unknown. The present 35-month follow-up study aimed to explore longitudinal changes in higher FC in multiple resting-state networks in subjects with the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (ApoE4) and/or amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI). Fifty-one subjects with aMCI and 64 cognitively normal (CN) subjects underwent neuropsychological tests and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans twice from April 2011 to June 2015. Subjects were divided into 4 groups according to diagnosis and ApoE4 status. The CN non-ApoE4 group served as a control group, and other groups served as AD risk groups. The cross-sectional and longitudinal patterns of multiple resting-state networks, including default mode network, hippocampus network, executive control network, and salience network, were explored by comparing FC data between groups and between time points, respectively. At baseline, compared with the control group, the AD risk groups showed higher FC with 8 regions in multiple networks. At follow-up, 6 of the regions displayed longitudinally decreased FC in AD risk groups. In contrast, the FC with all of these regions was maintained in the control group. Notably, among the 3 risk groups, most of the higher FC at baseline (5 of the 8 regions) and longitudinally decreased FC at follow-up (4 of the 6 regions) were shown in the aMCI ApoE4 group. Higher resting-state FC is followed by a decline in subjects at AD risk, and this inverse U-shaped trajectory is more notable in subjects with higher risk. © Copyright 2018 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Clinical utility of the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis.

PubMed

Rekhi, Gurpreet; Ng, Wai Yee; Lee, Jimmy

2018-03-01

There is a pressing need for reliable and valid rating scales to assess and measure depression in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis. The aim of this study was to examine the clinical utility of the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS) in individuals at UHR of psychosis. 167 individuals at UHR of psychosis were included as participants in this study. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders, CDSS, Beck Anxiety Inventory and Global Assessment of Functioning were administered. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and factor analyses were performed. Cronbach's alpha was computed. Correlations between CDSS factor scores and other clinical variables were examined. The median CDSS total score was 5.0 (IQR 1.0-9.0). The area under ROC curve was 0.886 and Cronbach's alpha was 0.855. A score of 7 on the CDSS yielded the highest sensitivity and specificity in detecting depression in UHR individuals. Exploratory factor analysis of the CDSS yielded two factors: depression-hopelessness and self depreciation-guilt, which was confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis. Further analysis showed that the depression-hopelessness factor predicted functioning; whereas the self depreciation-guilt factor was related to the severity of the attenuated psychotic symptoms. In conclusion, the CDSS demonstrates good psychometric properties when used to evaluate depression in individuals at UHR of psychosis. Our study results also support a two-factor structure of the CDSS in UHR individuals. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-10-01

Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Tice, Jeffrey A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M.; Gard, Charlotte C.; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-01-01

Purpose Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. Methods We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. Results We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P < .001). Conclusion The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. PMID:26282663

49 CFR 1007.4 - Procedures for identifying the individual making the request.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Procedures for identifying the individual making the request. 1007.4 Section 1007.4 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... CONTAINING INFORMATION ABOUT INDIVIDUALS § 1007.4 Procedures for identifying the individual making the...

Using the WHO-5 Well-Being Index to Identify College Students at Risk for Mental Health Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Downs, Andrew; Boucher, Laura A.; Campbell, Duncan G.; Polyakov, Anita

2017-01-01

There is a clear need for colleges to do a better job of identifying students who may benefit from treatment and encouraging those students to actually seek help (Hunt & Eisenberg, 2010). Indeed, research suggests that population-based screening can encourage college students who are at risk for mental health problems to seek treatment (Kim,…

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C; Cisternas, Pamela C; Repetto, Paula B

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed Central

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C.; Cisternas, Pamela C.; Repetto, Paula B.

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and

Social Cognition in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

van Donkersgoed, R. J. M.; Wunderink, L.; Nieboer, R.; Aleman, A.; Pijnenborg, G. H. M.

2015-01-01

Objective Treatment in the ultra-high risk stage for a psychotic episode is critical to the course of symptoms. Markers for the development of psychosis have been studied, to optimize the detection of people at risk of psychosis. One possible marker for the transition to psychosis is social cognition. To estimate effect sizes for social cognition based on a quantitative integration of the published evidence, we conducted a meta-analysis of social cognitive performance in people at ultra high risk (UHR). Methods A literature search (1970-July 2015) was performed in PubMed, PsychINFO, Medline, Embase, and ISI Web of Science, using the search terms ‘social cognition’, ‘theory of mind’, ‘emotion recognition’, ‘attributional style’, ‘social knowledge’, ‘social perception’, ‘empathy’, ‘at risk mental state’, ‘clinical high risk’, ‘psychosis prodrome’, and ‘ultra high risk’. The pooled effect size (Cohen’s D) and the effect sizes for each domain of social cognition were calculated. A random effects model with 95% confidence intervals was used. Results Seventeen studies were included in the analysis. The overall significant effect was of medium magnitude (d = 0.52, 95% Cl = 0.38–0.65). No moderator effects were found for age, gender and sample size. Sub-analyses demonstrated that individuals in the UHR phase show significant moderate deficits in affect recognition and affect discrimination in faces as well as in voices and in verbal Theory of Mind (TOM). Due to an insufficient amount of studies, we did not calculate an effect size for attributional bias and social perception/ knowledge. A majority of studies did not find a correlation between social cognition deficits and transition to psychosis, which may suggest that social cognition in general is not a useful marker for the development of psychosis. However some studies suggest the possible predictive value of verbal TOM and the recognition of specific emotions in faces

Environmental risks for nontuberculous mycobacteria. Individual exposures and climatic factors in the cystic fibrosis population.

PubMed

Prevots, D Rebecca; Adjemian, Jennifer; Fernandez, Aisling G; Knowles, Michael R; Olivier, Kenneth N

2014-09-01

Persons with cystic fibrosis are at high risk of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial infection, with a national prevalence estimated at 13%. The risk of nontuberculous mycobacteria associated with specific environmental exposures, and the correlation with climatic conditions in this population has not been described. To describe the association of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria with individual exposures to water and soil aerosols, and the population associations of these infections with climatic factors. We conducted a nested case-control study within a cohort study of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria prevalence at 21 geographically diverse national cystic fibrosis centers. Incident nontuberculous mycobacterial infection cases (at least one prior negative culture followed by one positive culture) were age- and sex-matched to culture-negative controls. Exposures to water and soil were assessed by administering a standardized questionnaire. Cohort prevalence at each of the 21 centers was correlated with climatic conditions in the same area through linear regression modeling. Overall, 48 cases and 85 control subjects were enrolled. Indoor swimming was associated with incident infection (adjusted odds ratio, 5.9, 95% confidence interval, 1.3-26.1), although only nine cases (19%) and five control subjects (6%) reported indoor swimming in the 4 months prior to infection. Exposure to showering and municipal water supply was common among both cases and control subjects: 77% of cases and 76% of control subjects reported showering at least daily. In linear regression, average annual atmospheric water vapor content was significantly predictive of center prevalence (P = 0.0019), with R(2) = 0.40. Atmospheric conditions explain more of the variation in disease prevalence than individual behaviors. The risk of specific exposures may vary by geographic region due to differences in conditions favoring mycobacterial growth and survival. However, because exposure to

What Faces Reveal: A Novel Method to Identify Patients at Risk of Deterioration Using Facial Expressions.

PubMed

Madrigal-Garcia, Maria Isabel; Rodrigues, Marcos; Shenfield, Alex; Singer, Mervyn; Moreno-Cuesta, Jeronimo

2018-07-01

To identify facial expressions occurring in patients at risk of deterioration in hospital wards. Prospective observational feasibility study. General ward patients in a London Community Hospital, United Kingdom. Thirty-four patients at risk of clinical deterioration. A 5-minute video (25 frames/s; 7,500 images) was recorded, encrypted, and subsequently analyzed for action units by a trained facial action coding system psychologist blinded to outcome. Action units of the upper face, head position, eyes position, lips and jaw position, and lower face were analyzed in conjunction with clinical measures collected within the National Early Warning Score. The most frequently detected action units were action unit 43 (73%) for upper face, action unit 51 (11.7%) for head position, action unit 62 (5.8%) for eyes position, action unit 25 (44.1%) for lips and jaw, and action unit 15 (67.6%) for lower face. The presence of certain combined face displays was increased in patients requiring admission to intensive care, namely, action units 43 + 15 + 25 (face display 1, p < 0.013), action units 43 + 15 + 51/52 (face display 2, p < 0.003), and action units 43 + 15 + 51 + 25 (face display 3, p < 0.002). Having face display 1, face display 2, and face display 3 increased the risk of being admitted to intensive care eight-fold, 18-fold, and as a sure event, respectively. A logistic regression model with face display 1, face display 2, face display 3, and National Early Warning Score as independent covariates described admission to intensive care with an average concordance statistic (C-index) of 0.71 (p = 0.009). Patterned facial expressions can be identified in deteriorating general ward patients. This tool may potentially augment risk prediction of current scoring systems.

Immunodeficiency, AIDS-related pneumonia, and risk of lung cancer among HIV-infected individuals.

PubMed

Marcus, Julia L; Leyden, Wendy A; Chao, Chun R; Horberg, Michael A; Klein, Daniel B; Quesenberry, Charles P; Towner, William J; Silverberg, Michael J

2017-04-24

The objective is to clarify the role of immunodeficiency and pneumonia in elevated lung cancer risk among HIV-infected individuals. Cohort study of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected adults in a large integrated healthcare system in California during 1996-2011. We used Poisson models to obtain rate ratios for lung cancer associated with HIV infection, overall and stratified by recent CD4 cells/μl (HIV-uninfected as reference group), with χ tests for trends across CD4 strata. Fully adjusted models included demographics, cancer risk factors (smoking, drug/alcohol abuse, overweight/obesity), and prior pneumonia. Among 24 768 HIV-infected and 257 600 HIV-uninfected individuals, the lung cancer rate per 100 000 person-years was 66 (n = 80 events) for HIV-infected and 33 (n = 506 events) for HIV-uninfected individuals [rate ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7-2.2]. Overall, HIV-infected individuals were at increased risk of lung cancer after adjustment for demographics and cancer risk factors (rate ratio 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), but not after additional adjustment for pneumonia (rate ratio 1.2, 95% CI: 0.9-1.6). Lower CD4 cell counts were associated with higher risk of lung cancer in unadjusted and demographics-adjusted models (P < 0.001 for all), but this trend did not remain after adjustment for cancer risk factors and pneumonia. Compared with HIV-uninfected individuals, HIV-infected individuals with CD4 less than 200 cells/μl were not at increased risk of lung cancer in fully adjusted models. The increased lung cancer risk among HIV patients is attributable to differences in demographics, risk factors such as smoking, and history of pneumonia. Immunodeficiency does not appear to have an independent effect on lung cancer risk.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Al Olama, Ali Amin; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Berndt, Sonja I; Conti, David V; Schumacher, Fredrick; Han, Ying; Benlloch, Sara; Hazelett, Dennis J; Wang, Zhaoming; Saunders, Ed; Leongamornlert, Daniel; Lindstrom, Sara; Jugurnauth-Little, Sara; Dadaev, Tokhir; Tymrakiewicz, Malgorzata; Stram, Daniel O; Rand, Kristin; Wan, Peggy; Stram, Alex; Sheng, Xin; Pooler, Loreall C; Park, Karen; Xia, Lucy; Tyrer, Jonathan; Kolonel, Laurence N; Le Marchand, Loic; Hoover, Robert N; Machiela, Mitchell J; Yeager, Merideth; Burdette, Laurie; Chung, Charles C; Hutchinson, Amy; Yu, Kai; Goh, Chee; Ahmed, Mahbubl; Govindasami, Koveela; Guy, Michelle; Tammela, Teuvo L J; Auvinen, Anssi; Wahlfors, Tiina; Schleutker, Johanna; Visakorpi, Tapio; Leinonen, Katri A; Xu, Jianfeng; Aly, Markus; Donovan, Jenny; Travis, Ruth C; Key, Tim J; Siddiq, Afshan; Canzian, Federico; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Takahashi, Atsushi; Kubo, Michiaki; Pharoah, Paul; Pashayan, Nora; Weischer, Maren; Nordestgaard, Borge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Klarskov, Peter; Røder, Martin Andreas; Iversen, Peter; Thibodeau, Stephen N; McDonnell, Shannon K; Schaid, Daniel J; Stanford, Janet L; Kolb, Suzanne; Holt, Sarah; Knudsen, Beatrice; Coll, Antonio Hurtado; Gapstur, Susan M; Diver, W Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L; Maier, Christiane; Luedeke, Manuel; Herkommer, Kathleen; Rinckleb, Antje E; Strom, Sara S; Pettaway, Curtis; Yeboah, Edward D; Tettey, Yao; Biritwum, Richard B; Adjei, Andrew A; Tay, Evelyn; Truelove, Ann; Niwa, Shelley; Chokkalingam, Anand P; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Cybulski, Cezary; Wokołorczyk, Dominika; Kluźniak, Wojciech; Park, Jong; Sellers, Thomas; Lin, Hui-Yi; Isaacs, William B; Partin, Alan W; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Stegmaier, Christa; Chen, Constance; Giovannucci, Edward L; Ma, Jing; Stampfer, Meir; Penney, Kathryn L; Mucci, Lorelei; John, Esther M; Ingles, Sue A; Kittles, Rick A; Murphy, Adam B; Pandha, Hardev; Michael, Agnieszka; Kierzek, Andrzej M; Blot, William; Signorello, Lisa B; Zheng, Wei; Albanes, Demetrius; Virtamo, Jarmo; Weinstein, Stephanie; Nemesure, Barbara; Carpten, John; Leske, Cristina; Wu, Suh-Yuh; Hennis, Anselm; Kibel, Adam S; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Hsing, Ann W; Chu, Lisa; Goodman, Phyllis J; Klein, Eric A; Zheng, S Lilly; Batra, Jyotsna; Clements, Judith; Spurdle, Amanda; Teixeira, Manuel R; Paulo, Paula; Maia, Sofia; Slavov, Chavdar; Kaneva, Radka; Mitev, Vanio; Witte, John S; Casey, Graham; Gillanders, Elizabeth M; Seminara, Daniella; Riboli, Elio; Hamdy, Freddie C; Coetzee, Gerhard A; Li, Qiyuan; Freedman, Matthew L; Hunter, David J; Muir, Kenneth; Gronberg, Henrik; Neal, David E; Southey, Melissa; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Cook, Michael B; Nakagawa, Hidewaki; Wiklund, Fredrik; Kraft, Peter; Chanock, Stephen J; Henderson, Brian E; Easton, Douglas F; Eeles, Rosalind A; Haiman, Christopher A

2014-10-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

Diet and kidney disease in high-risk individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Dunkler, Daniela; Dehghan, Mahshid; Teo, Koon K; Heinze, Georg; Gao, Peggy; Kohl, Maria; Clase, Catherine M; Mann, Johannes F E; Yusuf, Salim; Oberbauer, Rainer

2013-10-14

Type 2 diabetes mellitus and associated chronic kidney disease (CKD) have become major public health problems. Little is known about the influence of diet on the incidence or progression of CKD among individuals with type 2 diabetes. To examine the association between (healthy) diet, alcohol, protein, and sodium intake, and incidence or progression of CKD among individuals with type 2 diabetes. All 6213 individuals with type 2 diabetes without macroalbuminuria from the Ongoing Telmisartan Alone and in Combination With Ramipril Global Endpoint Trial (ONTARGET) were included in this observational study. Recruitment spanned from January 2002 to July 2003, with prospective follow-up through January 2008. Chronic kidney disease was defined as new microalbuminuria or macroalbuminuria or glomerular filtration rate decline of more than 5% per year at 5.5 years of follow-up. We assessed diet using the modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI). The analyses were adjusted for known risk factors, and competing risk of death was considered. After 5.5 years of follow-up, 31.7% of participants had developed CKD and 8.3% had died. Compared with participants in the least healthy tertile of mAHEI score, participants in the healthiest tertile had a lower risk of CKD (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.84) and lower risk of mortality (OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.48-0.78). Participants consuming more than 3 servings of fruits per week had a lower risk of CKD compared with participants consuming these food items less frequently. Participants in the lowest tertile of total and animal protein intake had an increased risk of CKD compared with participants in the highest tertile (total protein OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.30). Sodium intake was not associated with CKD. Moderate alcohol intake reduced the risk of CKD (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87) and mortality (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53-0.89). A healthy diet and moderate intake of alcohol may decrease the incidence or progression of CKD

Individual-level risk factors for gun victimization in a sample of probationers.

PubMed

Wells, William; Chermak, Steven

2011-07-01

Interventions aimed at preventing the important problem of gun injuries could be improved with an understanding of whether there are unique factors that place individuals at an increased risk of gun victimization. Much remains to be known about the victims of gun violence. The purpose of this article is to assess whether there are individual-level variables uniquely related to the likelihood of experiencing a gun victimization in a sample of probationers, individuals already at a heightened risk for criminal victimization. Self-report data were collected from 235 felony probationers about, for instance, gun and nongun victimization, gang involvement, and drug sales. Results show different variables are related to nongun victimization and gun victimization. In the current sample, involvement in gun crimes are linked to an increased risk of gun victimization. Violent offending and residential stability are associated with an increased chance of crime victimization.

Implementing a screening tool for identifying patients at risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer: a statewide initiative.

PubMed

Brannon Traxler, L; Martin, Monique L; Kerber, Alice S; Bellcross, Cecelia A; Crane, Barbara E; Green, Victoria; Matthews, Roland; Paris, Nancy M; Gabram, Sheryl G A

2014-10-01

The Georgia Breast Cancer Genomic Health Consortium is a partnership created with funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to the Georgia Department of Public Health to reduce cancer disparities among high-risk minority women. The project addresses young women at increased risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome through outreach efforts. The consortium provides education and collects surveillance data using the breast cancer genetics referral screening tool (B-RST) available at www.BreastCancerGeneScreen.org . The HBOC educational protocol was presented to 73 staff in 6 public health centers. Staff used the tool during the collection of medical history. Further family history assessments and testing for mutations in the BRCA1/2 genes were facilitated if appropriate. Data was collected from November 2012 through December 2013, including 2,159 screened women. The majority of patients identified as black/African American and were 18-49 years old. Also, 6.0 % (n = 130) had positive screens, and 60.9 % (n = 67) of the 110 patients who agreed to be contacted provided a detailed family history. A total of 47 patients (42.7 %) met National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines when family history was clarified. Fourteen (12.7 %) underwent genetic testing; 1 patient was positive for a BRCA2 mutation, and 1 patient was found to carry a variant of uncertain significance. The introduction of genomics practice within public health departments has provided access to comprehensive cancer care for uninsured individuals. The successful implementation of the B-RST into public health centers demonstrates the opportunity for integration of HBOC screening into primary care practices.

Identifying women with dense breasts at high risk for interval cancer: a cohort study.

PubMed

Kerlikowske, Karla; Zhu, Weiwei; Tosteson, Anna N A; Sprague, Brian L; Tice, Jeffrey A; Lehman, Constance D; Miglioretti, Diana L

2015-05-19

Twenty-one states have laws requiring that women be notified if they have dense breasts and that they be advised to discuss supplemental imaging with their provider. To better direct discussions of supplemental imaging by determining which combinations of breast cancer risk and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density categories are associated with high interval cancer rates. Prospective cohort. Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) breast imaging facilities. 365,426 women aged 40 to 74 years who had 831,455 digital screening mammography examinations. BI-RADS breast density, BCSC 5-year breast cancer risk, and interval cancer rate (invasive cancer ≤12 months after a normal mammography result) per 1000 mammography examinations. High interval cancer rate was defined as more than 1 case per 1000 examinations. High interval cancer rates were observed for women with 5-year risk of 1.67% or greater and extremely dense breasts or 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously dense breasts (24% of all women with dense breasts). The interval rate of advanced-stage disease was highest (>0.4 case per 1000 examinations) among women with 5-year risk of 2.50% or greater and heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts (21% of all women with dense breasts). Five-year risk was low to average (0% to 1.66%) for 51.0% of women with heterogeneously dense breasts and 52.5% with extremely dense breasts, with interval cancer rates of 0.58 to 0.63 and 0.72 to 0.89 case per 1000 examinations, respectively. The benefit of supplemental imaging was not assessed. Breast density should not be the sole criterion for deciding whether supplemental imaging is justified because not all women with dense breasts have high interval cancer rates. BCSC 5-year risk combined with BI-RADS breast density can identify women at high risk for interval cancer to inform patient-provider discussions about alternative screening strategies. National Cancer Institute.

Bat wing biometrics: using collagen-elastin bundles in bat wings as a unique individual identifier.

PubMed

Amelon, Sybill K; Hooper, Sarah E; Womack, Kathryn M

2017-05-29

The ability to recognize individuals within an animal population is fundamental to conservation and management. Identification of individual bats has relied on artificial marking techniques that may negatively affect the survival and alter the behavior of individuals. Biometric systems use biological characteristics to identify individuals. The field of animal biometrics has expanded to include recognition of individuals based upon various morphologies and phenotypic variations including pelage patterns, tail flukes, and whisker arrangement. Biometric systems use 4 biologic measurement criteria: universality, distinctiveness, permanence, and collectability. Additionally, the system should not violate assumptions of capture-recapture methods that include no increased mortality or alterations of behavior. We evaluated whether individual bats could be uniquely identified based upon the collagen-elastin bundles that are visible with gross examination of their wings. We examined little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ), northern long-eared bats ( M. septentrionalis ), big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus ), and tricolored bats ( Perimyotis subflavus ) to determine whether the "wing prints" from the bundle network would satisfy the biologic measurement criteria. We evaluated 1,212 photographs from 230 individual bats comparing week 0 photos with those taken at weeks 3 or 6 and were able to confirm identity of individuals over time. Two blinded evaluators were able to successfully match 170 individuals in hand to photographs taken at weeks 0, 3, and 6. This study suggests that bats can be successfully re-identified using photographs taken at previous times. We suggest further evaluation of this methodology for use in a standardized system that can be shared among bat conservationists.

Bat wing biometrics: using collagen–elastin bundles in bat wings as a unique individual identifier

PubMed Central

Hooper, Sarah E.; Womack, Kathryn M.

2017-01-01

Abstract The ability to recognize individuals within an animal population is fundamental to conservation and management. Identification of individual bats has relied on artificial marking techniques that may negatively affect the survival and alter the behavior of individuals. Biometric systems use biological characteristics to identify individuals. The field of animal biometrics has expanded to include recognition of individuals based upon various morphologies and phenotypic variations including pelage patterns, tail flukes, and whisker arrangement. Biometric systems use 4 biologic measurement criteria: universality, distinctiveness, permanence, and collectability. Additionally, the system should not violate assumptions of capture–recapture methods that include no increased mortality or alterations of behavior. We evaluated whether individual bats could be uniquely identified based upon the collagen–elastin bundles that are visible with gross examination of their wings. We examined little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), northern long-eared bats (M. septentrionalis), big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus), and tricolored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) to determine whether the “wing prints” from the bundle network would satisfy the biologic measurement criteria. We evaluated 1,212 photographs from 230 individual bats comparing week 0 photos with those taken at weeks 3 or 6 and were able to confirm identity of individuals over time. Two blinded evaluators were able to successfully match 170 individuals in hand to photographs taken at weeks 0, 3, and 6. This study suggests that bats can be successfully re-identified using photographs taken at previous times. We suggest further evaluation of this methodology for use in a standardized system that can be shared among bat conservationists. PMID:29674784

HumanMethylation450K Array–Identified Biomarkers Predict Tumour Recurrence/Progression at Initial Diagnosis of High-risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Mark O; Bryan, Richard T; Emes, Richard D; Luscombe, Christopher J; Cheng, KK; Zeegers, Maurice P; James, Nicholas D; Gommersall, Lyndon M; Fryer, Anthony A

2018-01-01

Background: High-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (HR-NMIBC) is a clinically unpredictable disease. Despite clinical risk estimation tools, many patients are undertreated with intra-vesical therapies alone, whereas others may be over-treated with early radical surgery. Molecular biomarkers, particularly DNA methylation, have been reported as predictive of tumour/patient outcomes in numerous solid organ and haematologic malignancies; however, there are few reports in HR-NMIBC and none using genome-wide array assessment. We therefore sought to identify novel DNA methylation markers of HR-NMIBC clinical outcomes that might predict tumour behaviour at initial diagnosis and help guide patient management. Patients and methods: A total of 21 primary initial diagnosis HR-NMIBC tumours were analysed by Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip arrays and subsequently bisulphite Pyrosequencing. In all, 7 had not recurred at 1 year after resection and 14 had recurred and/or progressed despite intra-vesical BCG. A further independent cohort of 32 HR-NMIBC tumours (17 no recurrence and 15 recurrence and/or progression despite BCG) were also assessed by bisulphite Pyrosequencing. Results: Array analyses identified 206 CpG loci that segregated non-recurrent HR-NMIBC tumours from clinically more aggressive recurrence/progression tumours. Hypermethylation of CpG cg11850659 and hypomethylation of CpG cg01149192 in combination predicted HR-NMIBC recurrence and/or progression within 1 year of diagnosis with 83% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 83% positive and 79% negative predictive values. Conclusions: This is the first genome-wide DNA methylation analysis of a unique HR-NMIBC tumour cohort encompassing known 1-year clinical outcomes. Our analyses identified potential novel epigenetic markers that could help guide individual patient management in this clinically unpredictable disease. PMID:29343995

Deficient Event-Related Theta Oscillations in Individuals at Risk for Alcoholism: A Study of Reward Processing and Impulsivity Features

PubMed Central

Kamarajan, Chella; Pandey, Ashwini K.; Chorlian, David B.; Manz, Niklas; Stimus, Arthur T.; Anokhin, Andrey P.; Bauer, Lance O.; Kuperman, Samuel; Kramer, John; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Schuckit, Marc A.; Hesselbrock, Victor M.; Porjesz, Bernice

2015-01-01

Background Individuals at high risk to develop alcoholism often manifest neurocognitive deficits as well as increased impulsivity. Event-related oscillations (EROs) have been used to effectively measure brain (dys)function during cognitive tasks in individuals with alcoholism and related disorders and in those at risk to develop these disorders. The current study examines ERO theta power during reward processing as well as impulsivity in adolescent and young adult subjects at high risk for alcoholism. Methods EROs were recorded during a monetary gambling task (MGT) in 12–25 years old participants (N = 1821; males = 48%) from high risk alcoholic families (HR, N = 1534) and comparison low risk community families (LR, N = 287) from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). Impulsivity scores and prevalence of externalizing diagnoses were also compared between LR and HR groups. Results HR offspring showed lower theta power and decreased current source density (CSD) activity than LR offspring during loss and gain conditions. Younger males had higher theta power than younger females in both groups, while the older HR females showed more theta power than older HR males. Younger subjects showed higher theta power than older subjects in each comparison. Differences in topography (i.e., frontalization) between groups were also observed. Further, HR subjects across gender had higher impulsivity scores and increased prevalence of externalizing disorders compared to LR subjects. Conclusions As theta power during reward processing is found to be lower not only in alcoholics, but also in HR subjects, it is proposed that reduced reward-related theta power, in addition to impulsivity and externalizing features, may be related in a predisposition to develop alcoholism and related disorders. PMID:26580209

Deficient Event-Related Theta Oscillations in Individuals at Risk for Alcoholism: A Study of Reward Processing and Impulsivity Features.

PubMed

Kamarajan, Chella; Pandey, Ashwini K; Chorlian, David B; Manz, Niklas; Stimus, Arthur T; Anokhin, Andrey P; Bauer, Lance O; Kuperman, Samuel; Kramer, John; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Schuckit, Marc A; Hesselbrock, Victor M; Porjesz, Bernice

2015-01-01

Individuals at high risk to develop alcoholism often manifest neurocognitive deficits as well as increased impulsivity. Event-related oscillations (EROs) have been used to effectively measure brain (dys)function during cognitive tasks in individuals with alcoholism and related disorders and in those at risk to develop these disorders. The current study examines ERO theta power during reward processing as well as impulsivity in adolescent and young adult subjects at high risk for alcoholism. EROs were recorded during a monetary gambling task (MGT) in 12-25 years old participants (N = 1821; males = 48%) from high risk alcoholic families (HR, N = 1534) and comparison low risk community families (LR, N = 287) from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA). Impulsivity scores and prevalence of externalizing diagnoses were also compared between LR and HR groups. HR offspring showed lower theta power and decreased current source density (CSD) activity than LR offspring during loss and gain conditions. Younger males had higher theta power than younger females in both groups, while the older HR females showed more theta power than older HR males. Younger subjects showed higher theta power than older subjects in each comparison. Differences in topography (i.e., frontalization) between groups were also observed. Further, HR subjects across gender had higher impulsivity scores and increased prevalence of externalizing disorders compared to LR subjects. As theta power during reward processing is found to be lower not only in alcoholics, but also in HR subjects, it is proposed that reduced reward-related theta power, in addition to impulsivity and externalizing features, may be related in a predisposition to develop alcoholism and related disorders.

Effectiveness of psychoeducation in reducing sickness absence and improving mental health in individuals at risk of having a mental disorder: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Pedersen, Pernille; Søgaard, Hans Jørgen; Labriola, Merete; Nohr, Ellen A; Jensen, Chris

2015-08-08

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of psychoeducation on return to work as an adjunct to standard case management in individuals on sick leave at risk of having a mental disorder. The participants could have different diagnoses but were all at risk of having a mental disorder. Between 2012 and 2014, 430 participants on sick leave were randomly allocated to either an intervention or control group. The psychoeducation consisted of 2-h sessions once a week for 6 weeks. The sessions focused on stress and work life and was based on problem-solving techniques and coping strategies. The main outcome, the relative risk (RR) of a full return to work based on register data from the job centres, was determined during the first 3 and 6 months after participation in the psychoeducation programme. At baseline and at 3 and 6 months after the intervention, the participants received a questionnaire on psychological symptoms, mental health-related quality of life, and locus of control. During the first 6 months after inclusion, the two groups had almost the same RR of a full return to work (RR:0.97, 95% CI: 0.78;1.21), but during the first 3 months, the individuals in the intervention group had a significantly higher risk of not having fully returned to work (RR:0.68, 95% CI:0.47;0.98). The individuals in the intervention group who had participated in at least four of the six psychoeducational sessions returned to work considerably slower at both time points than did the control group. The intervention did not decrease the level of psychological symptoms or improve mental health-related quality of life; however, individuals in the intervention group improved their scores on internal locus of control at both 3 and 6 months. Offering psychoeducation to individuals on sick leave at risk of having a mental disorder had no influence on the chance of a full return to work during the first 6 months; however, it did result in a higher relative risk of not returning to work

White matter integrity in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis: a systematic review and discussion of the role of polyunsaturated fatty acids.

PubMed

Vijayakumar, Nandita; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Whitford, Thomas; Hermens, Daniel F; Nelson, Barnaby; Rice, Simon; Whittle, Sarah; Pantelis, Christos; McGorry, Patrick; Schäfer, Miriam R; Amminger, G Paul

2016-08-11

Schizophrenia is thought to be a neurodevelopmental disorder with pathophysiological processes beginning in the brain prior to the emergence of clinical symptoms. Recent evidence from neuroimaging studies using techniques such as diffusion tensor imaging has identified white matter abnormalities that are suggestive of disrupted brain myelination and neuronal connectivity. Identifying whether such effects exist in individuals at high risk for developing psychosis may help with prevention and early intervention strategies. In addition, there is preliminary evidence for a role of lipid biology in the onset of psychosis, along with well-established evidence of its role in myelination of white matter tracts. As such, this article synthesises the literature on polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in myelination and schizophrenia, hypothesizing that white matter abnormalities may potentially mediate the relationship between PUFAs and schizophrenia. Diffusion tensor imaging studies were identified through a systematic search of existing literature. Studies examined white matter integrity in ultra-high risk (UHR) samples, as assessed using structured diagnostic interviews. Data was extracted and summarised as a narrative review. Twelve studies met inclusion criteria, and findings identified reduced fractional anisotropy and higher diffusivity. Although the exact location of abnormalities remains uncertain, fronto-temporal and fronto-limbic connections, including the superior longitudinal and uncinate fasiculus, cingulum, and corpus callosum appear to be implicated. Because of preliminary evidence suggesting lipid biology may be relevant for the onset of psychosis, a discussion is provided of the role of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in myelination and risk for psychosis. While the function of PUFAs in myelination is well-established, there is growing evidence of reduced PUFA concentration in UHR samples, highlighting the need for research to examine the relationship

Epidemiology and Individual, Household and Geographical Risk Factors of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia: Results from the First Nationwide Mapping

PubMed Central

Deribe, Kebede; Brooker, Simon J.; Pullan, Rachel L.; Sime, Heven; Gebretsadik, Abeba; Assefa, Ashenafi; Kebede, Amha; Hailu, Asrat; Rebollo, Maria P.; Shafi, Oumer; Bockarie, Moses J.; Aseffa, Abraham; Reithinger, Richard; Cano, Jorge; Enquselassie, Fikre; Newport, Melanie J.; Davey, Gail

2015-01-01

Although podoconiosis is one of the major causes of tropical lymphoedema and is endemic in Ethiopia its epidemiology and risk factors are poorly understood. Individual-level data for 129,959 individuals from 1,315 communities in 659 woreda (districts) were collected for a nationwide integrated survey of lymphatic filariasis and podoconiosis. Blood samples were tested for circulating Wuchereria bancrofti antigen using immunochromatographic card tests. A clinical algorithm was used to reach a diagnosis of podoconiosis by excluding other potential causes of lymphoedema of the lower limb. Bayesian multilevel models were used to identify individual and environmental risk factors. Overall, 8,110 of 129,959 (6.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1–6.4%) surveyed individuals were identified with lymphoedema of the lower limb, of whom 5,253 (4.0%, 95% CI 3.9–4.1%) were confirmed to be podoconiosis cases. In multivariable analysis, being female, older, unmarried, washing the feet less frequently than daily, and being semiskilled or unemployed were significantly associated with increased risk of podoconiosis. Attending formal education and living in a house with a covered floor were associated with decreased risk of podoconiosis. Podoconiosis exhibits marked geographical variation across Ethiopia, with variation in risk associated with variation in rainfall, enhanced vegetation index, and altitude. PMID:25404069

Development of a predictive model to identify inpatients at risk of re-admission within 30 days of discharge (PARR-30)

PubMed Central

Billings, John; Blunt, Ian; Steventon, Adam; Georghiou, Theo; Lewis, Geraint; Bardsley, Martin

2012-01-01

Objectives To develop an algorithm for identifying inpatients at high risk of re-admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital in England within 30 days of discharge using information that can either be obtained from hospital information systems or from the patient and their notes. Design Multivariate statistical analysis of routinely collected hospital episode statistics (HES) data using logistic regression to build the predictive model. The model's performance was calculated using bootstrapping. Setting HES data covering all NHS hospital admissions in England. Participants The NHS patients were admitted to hospital between April 2008 and March 2009 (10% sample of all admissions, n=576 868). Main outcome measures Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the algorithm, together with its positive predictive value and sensitivity for a range of risk score thresholds. Results The algorithm produces a ‘risk score’ ranging (0–1) for each admitted patient, and the percentage of patients with a re-admission within 30 days and the mean re-admission costs of all patients are provided for 20 risk bands. At a risk score threshold of 0.5, the positive predictive value (ie, percentage of inpatients identified as high risk who were subsequently re-admitted within 30 days) was 59.2% (95% CI 58.0% to 60.5%); representing 5.4% (95% CI 5.2% to 5.6%) of all inpatients who would be re-admitted within 30 days (sensitivity). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.70). Conclusions We have developed a method of identifying inpatients at high risk of unplanned re-admission to NHS hospitals within 30 days of discharge. Though the models had a low sensitivity, we show how to identify subgroups of patients that contain a high proportion of patients who will be re-admitted within 30 days. Additional work is necessary to validate the model in practice. PMID:22885591

At risk of being risky: The relationship between "brain age" under emotional states and risk preference.

PubMed

Rudolph, Marc D; Miranda-Domínguez, Oscar; Cohen, Alexandra O; Breiner, Kaitlyn; Steinberg, Laurence; Bonnie, Richard J; Scott, Elizabeth S; Taylor-Thompson, Kim; Chein, Jason; Fettich, Karla C; Richeson, Jennifer A; Dellarco, Danielle V; Galván, Adriana; Casey, B J; Fair, Damien A

2017-04-01

Developmental differences regarding decision making are often reported in the absence of emotional stimuli and without context, failing to explain why some individuals are more likely to have a greater inclination toward risk. The current study (N=212; 10-25y) examined the influence of emotional context on underlying functional brain connectivity over development and its impact on risk preference. Using functional imaging data in a neutral brain-state we first identify the "brain age" of a given individual then validate it with an independent measure of cortical thickness. We then show, on average, that "brain age" across the group during the teen years has the propensity to look younger in emotional contexts. Further, we show this phenotype (i.e. a younger brain age in emotional contexts) relates to a group mean difference in risk perception - a pattern exemplified greatest in young-adults (ages 18-21). The results are suggestive of a specified functional brain phenotype that relates to being at "risk to be risky." Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Improving climato-economic theorizing at the individual level.

PubMed

Fischer, Ronald

2013-10-01

Using representative data from 55 nations, I show that individual level wealth interacts with climate in predicting individual happiness but not postmaterialism values. I propose that more research is needed to identify (a) the specific mechanisms of how wealth buffers climatic demands at the individual level and (b) the neurocognitive and physiological reactions of individuals situated in different ecological niches.

Identifying Causal Variants at Loci with Multiple Signals of Association

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-01-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20–50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. PMID:25104515

Neuropsychopharmacology and Neurogenetic Aspects of Executive Functioning: Should Reward Gene Polymorphisms Constitute a Diagnostic Tool to Identify Individuals at Risk for Impaired Judgment?

PubMed Central

Bowirrat, Abdalla; Chen, Thomas JH; Oscar-Berman, Marlene; Madigan, Margaret; Chen, Amanda LH; Bailey, John A.; Braverman, Eric R.; Kerner, Mallory; Giordano, John; Morse, Siohban; Downs, B. William; Waite, Roger L.; Fornari, Frank; Armaly, Zaher; Blum, Kenneth

2013-01-01

Executive functions are processes that act in harmony to control behaviors necessary for maintaining focus and achieving outcomes. Executive dysfunction in neuropsychiatric disorders is attributed to structural or functional pathology of brain networks involving prefrontal cortex (PFC) and its connections with other brain regions. The PFC receives innervations from different neurons associated with a number of neurotransmitters, especially dopamine (DA). Here we review findings on the contribution of PFC DA to higher-order cognitive and emotional behaviors. We suggest examination of multifactorial interactions of an individual’s genetic history, along with environmental risk factors, can assist in the characterization of executive functioning for that individual. Based upon the results of genetic studies we also propose genetic mapping as a probable diagnostic tool serving as a therapeutic adjunct for augmenting executive functioning capabilities. We conclude that preservation of the neurological underpinnings of executive functions requires the integrity of complex neural systems including the influence of specific genes and associated polymorphisms to provide adequate neurotransmission. PMID:22371275

Risk of inpatient stay for mental illness among individuals with substance use disorders.

PubMed

Prince, Jonathan D

2012-09-01

Whereas most studies of inpatient stay for mental illness examine whether substance use is present, this study identified types or combinations of abused substances that most increased hospitalization risk. Logistic regression of data from the 2007 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (N=37,654) was used to predict past-year hospitalization of individuals with DSM-IV substance use disorders. Even after the inclusion of control variables, adults with four types of substance abuse or dependence were more likely to be hospitalized than adults without substance abuse or dependence. High-risk disorders included abuse of or dependence on opioid analgesics (odds ratio [OR]=6.85, p<.001), cocaine (OR=2.65, p<.05), alcohol and cocaine (OR=2.58, p<.05), and alcohol and marijuana (OR=3.10, p<.01). Researchers examining inpatient stays may find it beneficial to look at abuse of specific substances or combinations of substances, and efforts to prevent inpatient stays could target people with high-risk substance use disorders.

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EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Over 700 sites in the United States have been identified where wood preserving operations have been conducted. The most common types of wood preservatives found at these sites are creosote, pentachlorophenol (PCP), and copper chromated arsenate (CCA). When properly used and disposed of, these preservatives do not impose a significant health risk. However, due to operating procedures (many of which were accepted industry practices at the time), wood treating operations have contributed to soil and groundwater contamination. Primary sources of pollution at these sites are lagoons, waste ponds, drip raacki areas and chemical storage and treatment tanks. To better understand the risks associated with the use of wood preserving compounds, it is important to identify the constituents of concern. Creosote is produced as a distillate from coal tar and hence, is a variable mixture of hundreds of compounds, mostly semivolatile organics (SVOCs). Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) generally, account for up to 85%, by weight, of the chemical constituents found in undiluted creosote. Genetic toxicity if individual PAHs increase with m,olecular weight. USEPA has determined that 7 PAHs are probable human carcinogens and has set forth order-of-magnitue relative potency factors for these constituents, Pentachlorophenol (PCP0 is another preservative used in wood preserving processes and is prepared by dissolving technical grade PCP in oil to produce a solution that

A study on negative and depressive symptom prevalence in individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Azar, Marleine; Pruessner, Marita; Baer, Lawrence H; Iyer, Srividya; Malla, Ashok K; Lepage, Martin

2016-09-21

Negative symptoms are known to be present in the prodromal stage of psychotic disorders, yet little is known about their prevalence. Studies examining the presence of negative symptoms in ultra-high risk (UHR) populations have shown some limitations, notably failing to control depression. The objective of this study was to examine the prevalence of negative symptoms in the presence of significant levels of depression and in the absence of such symptoms (primary negative symptoms) over 1 year and to examine differences in negative symptoms in psychosis converters and non-converters. Participants were 123 individuals at UHR for the development of psychosis receiving follow-up for a period of 2 years. Negative symptoms and depression were measured using the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms and the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Scale at baseline, 6 and 12 months post-admission. At baseline, the prevalence of negative symptoms and primary negative symptoms was 76.4% and 32.7%, respectively. Whereas the prevalence of negative symptoms was significantly decreased at 6 months, the prevalence of primary negative symptoms was similar at all time points. Negative symptoms at baseline were not different between later converters and non-converters to psychosis. Our findings confirm the presence of secondary and primary negative symptoms in individuals at UHR, but suggest a differential trajectory of both measures over time. Future studies should include larger UHR groups and focus on the investigation of intra-individual changes in primary negative symptoms over time and further explore their potential role for psychosis conversion. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Risk of depression and self-harm in teenagers identifying with goth subculture: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Bowes, Lucy; Carnegie, Rebecca; Pearson, Rebecca; Mars, Becky; Biddle, Lucy; Maughan, Barbara; Lewis, Glyn; Fernyhough, Charles; Heron, Jon

2015-01-01

more likely (unadjusted OR 3·67, 2·33–4·79, p<0·001) to have scores in the clinical range for depression at 18 years; findings were similar for self-harm. Associations were not attenuated after adjustment for a range of individual, family, and social confounders. Interpretation Our findings suggest that young people identifying with goth subculture might be at an increased risk for depression and self-harm. Although our results suggest that some peer contagion operates within the goth community, our observational findings cannot be used to claim that becoming a goth increases risk of self-harm or depression. Working with young people in the goth community to identify those at increased risk of depression and self-harm and provide support might be effective. Funding Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council Programme. PMID:26321233

Contributions of early cortical processing and reading ability to functional status in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Carrión, Ricardo E; Cornblatt, Barbara A; McLaughlin, Danielle; Chang, Jeremy; Auther, Andrea M; Olsen, Ruth H; Javitt, Daniel C

2015-05-01

There is a growing recognition that individuals at clinical high risk need intervention for functional impairments, along with emerging psychosis, as the majority of clinical high risk (CHR) individuals show persistent deficits in social and role functioning regardless of transition to psychosis. Recent studies have demonstrated reduced reading ability as a potential cause of functional disability in schizophrenia, related to underlying deficits in generation of mismatch negativity (MMN). The present study extends these findings to subjects at CHR. The sample consisted of 34 CHR individuals and 33 healthy comparison subjects (CNTLs) from the Recognition and Prevention (RAP) Program at the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. At baseline, reading measures were collected, along with MMN to pitch, duration, and intensity deviants, and measures of neurocognition, and social and role (academic/work) functioning. CHR subjects showed impairments in reading ability, neurocognition, and MMN generation, relative to CNTLs. Lower-amplitude MMN responses were correlated with worse reading ability, slower processing speed, and poorer social and role functioning. However, when entered into a simultaneous regression, only reduced responses to deviance in sound duration and volume predicted poor social and role functioning, respectively. Deficits in reading ability exist even prior to illness onset in schizophrenia and may represent a decline in performance from prior abilities. As in schizophrenia, deficits are related to impaired MMN generation, suggesting specific contributions of sensory-level impairment to neurocognitive processes related to social and role function. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emotion recognition deficits as predictors of transition in individuals at clinical high risk for schizophrenia: a neurodevelopmental perspective.

PubMed

Corcoran, C M; Keilp, J G; Kayser, J; Klim, C; Butler, P D; Bruder, G E; Gur, R C; Javitt, D C

2015-10-01

Schizophrenia is characterized by profound and disabling deficits in the ability to recognize emotion in facial expression and tone of voice. Although these deficits are well documented in established schizophrenia using recently validated tasks, their predictive utility in at-risk populations has not been formally evaluated. The Penn Emotion Recognition and Discrimination tasks, and recently developed measures of auditory emotion recognition, were administered to 49 clinical high-risk subjects prospectively followed for 2 years for schizophrenia outcome, and 31 healthy controls, and a developmental cohort of 43 individuals aged 7-26 years. Deficit in emotion recognition in at-risk subjects was compared with deficit in established schizophrenia, and with normal neurocognitive growth curves from childhood to early adulthood. Deficits in emotion recognition significantly distinguished at-risk patients who transitioned to schizophrenia. By contrast, more general neurocognitive measures, such as attention vigilance or processing speed, were non-predictive. The best classification model for schizophrenia onset included both face emotion processing and negative symptoms, with accuracy of 96%, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.99. In a parallel developmental study, emotion recognition abilities were found to reach maturity prior to traditional age of risk for schizophrenia, suggesting they may serve as objective markers of early developmental insult. Profound deficits in emotion recognition exist in at-risk patients prior to schizophrenia onset. They may serve as an index of early developmental insult, and represent an effective target for early identification and remediation. Future studies investigating emotion recognition deficits at both mechanistic and predictive levels are strongly encouraged.

Screening tools to identify patients with complex health needs at risk of high use of health care services: A scoping review.

PubMed

Marcoux, Valérie; Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Dufour, Isabelle; Hudon, Catherine

2017-01-01

Many people with chronic conditions have complex health needs often due to multiple chronic conditions, psychiatric comorbidities, psychosocial issues, or a combination of these factors. They are at high risk of frequent use of healthcare services. To offer these patients interventions adapted to their needs, it is crucial to be able to identify them early. The aim of this study was to find all existing screening tools that identify patients with complex health needs at risk of frequent use of healthcare services, and to highlight their principal characteristics. Our purpose was to find a short, valid screening tool to identify adult patients of all ages. A scoping review was performed on articles published between 1985 and July 2016, retrieved through a comprehensive search of the Scopus and CINAHL databases, following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley (2005), and completed by Levac et al. (2010). Of the 3,818 articles identified, 30 were included, presenting 14 different screening tools. Seven tools were self-reported. Five targeted adult patients, and nine geriatric patients. Two tools were designed for specific populations. Four can be completed in 15 minutes or less. Most screening tools target elderly persons. The INTERMED self-assessment (IM-SA) targets adults of all ages and can be completed in less than 15 minutes. Future research could evaluate its usefulness as a screening tool for identifying patients with complex needs at risk of becoming high users of healthcare services.

Exome sequencing identifies rare LDLR and APOA5 alleles conferring risk for myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Do, Ron; Stitziel, Nathan O; Won, Hong-Hee; Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Duga, Stefano; Angelica Merlini, Pier; Kiezun, Adam; Farrall, Martin; Goel, Anuj; Zuk, Or; Guella, Illaria; Asselta, Rosanna; Lange, Leslie A; Peloso, Gina M; Auer, Paul L; Girelli, Domenico; Martinelli, Nicola; Farlow, Deborah N; DePristo, Mark A; Roberts, Robert; Stewart, Alexander F R; Saleheen, Danish; Danesh, John; Epstein, Stephen E; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Hovingh, G Kees; Kastelein, John J; Samani, Nilesh J; Schunkert, Heribert; Erdmann, Jeanette; Shah, Svati H; Kraus, William E; Davies, Robert; Nikpay, Majid; Johansen, Christopher T; Wang, Jian; Hegele, Robert A; Hechter, Eliana; Marz, Winfried; Kleber, Marcus E; Huang, Jie; Johnson, Andrew D; Li, Mingyao; Burke, Greg L; Gross, Myron; Liu, Yongmei; Assimes, Themistocles L; Heiss, Gerardo; Lange, Ethan M; Folsom, Aaron R; Taylor, Herman A; Olivieri, Oliviero; Hamsten, Anders; Clarke, Robert; Reilly, Dermot F; Yin, Wu; Rivas, Manuel A; Donnelly, Peter; Rossouw, Jacques E; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M; Wilson, James G; Rich, Stephen S; Bamshad, Michael J; Tracy, Russell P; Cupples, L Adrienne; Rader, Daniel J; Reilly, Muredach P; Spertus, John A; Cresci, Sharon; Hartiala, Jaana; Tang, W H Wilson; Hazen, Stanley L; Allayee, Hooman; Reiner, Alex P; Carlson, Christopher S; Kooperberg, Charles; Jackson, Rebecca D; Boerwinkle, Eric; Lander, Eric S; Schwartz, Stephen M; Siscovick, David S; McPherson, Ruth; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Abecasis, Goncalo R; Watkins, Hugh; Nickerson, Deborah A; Ardissino, Diego; Sunyaev, Shamil R; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Altshuler, David; Gabriel, Stacey; Kathiresan, Sekar

2015-02-05

Myocardial infarction (MI), a leading cause of death around the world, displays a complex pattern of inheritance. When MI occurs early in life, genetic inheritance is a major component to risk. Previously, rare mutations in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) genes have been shown to contribute to MI risk in individual families, whereas common variants at more than 45 loci have been associated with MI risk in the population. Here we evaluate how rare mutations contribute to early-onset MI risk in the population. We sequenced the protein-coding regions of 9,793 genomes from patients with MI at an early age (≤50 years in males and ≤60 years in females) along with MI-free controls. We identified two genes in which rare coding-sequence mutations were more frequent in MI cases versus controls at exome-wide significance. At low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 4.2-fold increased risk for MI; carriers of null alleles at LDLR were at even higher risk (13-fold difference). Approximately 2% of early MI cases harbour a rare, damaging mutation in LDLR; this estimate is similar to one made more than 40 years ago using an analysis of total cholesterol. Among controls, about 1 in 217 carried an LDLR coding-sequence mutation and had plasma LDL cholesterol > 190 mg dl(-1). At apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 2.2-fold increased risk for MI. When compared with non-carriers, LDLR mutation carriers had higher plasma LDL cholesterol, whereas APOA5 mutation carriers had higher plasma triglycerides. Recent evidence has connected MI risk with coding-sequence mutations at two genes functionally related to APOA5, namely lipoprotein lipase and apolipoprotein C-III (refs 18, 19). Combined, these observations suggest that, as well as LDL cholesterol, disordered metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins contributes to MI risk.

Data mining model using simple and readily available factors could identify patients at high risk for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Kurosaki, Masayuki; Hiramatsu, Naoki; Sakamoto, Minoru; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki; Iwasaki, Manabu; Tamori, Akihiro; Matsuura, Kentaro; Kakinuma, Sei; Sugauchi, Fuminaka; Sakamoto, Naoya; Nakagawa, Mina; Izumi, Namiki

2012-03-01

Assessment of the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development is essential for formulating personalized surveillance or antiviral treatment plan for chronic hepatitis C. We aimed to build a simple model for the identification of patients at high risk of developing HCC. Chronic hepatitis C patients followed for at least 5 years (n=1003) were analyzed by data mining to build a predictive model for HCC development. The model was externally validated using a cohort of 1072 patients (472 with sustained virological response (SVR) and 600 with nonSVR to PEG-interferon plus ribavirin therapy). On the basis of factors such as age, platelet, albumin, and aspartate aminotransferase, the HCC risk prediction model identified subgroups with high-, intermediate-, and low-risk of HCC with a 5-year HCC development rate of 20.9%, 6.3-7.3%, and 0-1.5%, respectively. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed through external validation (r(2)=0.981). The 10-year HCC development rate was also significantly higher in the high-and intermediate-risk group than in the low-risk group (24.5% vs. 4.8%; p<0.0001). In the high-and intermediate-risk group, the incidence of HCC development was significantly reduced in patients with SVR compared to those with nonSVR (5-year rate, 9.5% vs. 4.5%; p=0.040). The HCC risk prediction model uses simple and readily available factors and identifies patients at a high risk of HCC development. The model allows physicians to identify patients requiring HCC surveillance and those who benefit from IFN therapy to prevent HCC. Copyright © 2011 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patient selection for day case-eligible surgery: identifying those at high risk for major complications.

PubMed

Mathis, Michael R; Naughton, Norah N; Shanks, Amy M; Freundlich, Robert E; Pannucci, Christopher J; Chu, Yijia; Haus, Jason; Morris, Michelle; Kheterpal, Sachin