Identifying Children At Risk for Being Bullies in the US

PubMed Central

Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

2012-01-01

Objective To identify risk factors associated with the highest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among US children. Methods Using the 2001–2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally-representative survey of US children in 6th–10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (≥ once or twice), moderate (≥ two-three times/month), and frequent (≥ weekly) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. Results The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5–6 days weekly were at highest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, drink > once daily, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at highest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Conclusions Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at highest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the highest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at highest risks for bullying and in targeting interventions. PMID:22989731

GWAS-identified schizophrenia risk SNPs at TSPAN18 are highly diverged between Europeans and East Asians.

PubMed

Liu, Jiewei; Li, Ming; Su, Bing

2016-12-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified multiple schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants for samples of European and East Asian descent, but most of the identified susceptibility variants are population-specific to either Europeans or East Asians. This strong genetic heterogeneity suggests that differential population histories may play a role in SCZ susceptibility. Here, we explored this possibility by examining the allele frequency divergence of 136 previously reported genome-wide SCZ risk SNPs between European and East Asian populations. Our results showed that two SNPs (rs11038167 and rs11038172) at TSPAN18, reported as genome-wide significant SCZ risk variants in Han Chinese, were entirely monomorphic in Europeans, indicating a deep between-population divergence at this gene locus. To explore the evolutionary history of TSPAN18 in East Asians, we conducted population genetic analyses including multiple neutrality tests, the haplotype-based iHS and EHH tests, as well as haplotype bifurcation map and network constructions. We found that the protective allele of rs11038172 (G allele) had a long extended haplotype with much slower decay compared to the A allele. The star-like shape of the G-allele-carrying haplotypes indicates a recent enrichment in East Asians. Together, the evidences suggest that the protective allele of rs11038172 has experienced recent Darwinian positive selection in East Asians. These findings provide new insights that may help explain the strong genetic heterogeneity in SCZ risk and previous inconsistent association results for SCZ among both Europeans and East Asians. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

PubMed

Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

2015-01-06

To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Identifying At-Risk Individuals for Insomnia Using the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test.

PubMed

Kalmbach, David A; Pillai, Vivek; Arnedt, J Todd; Drake, Christopher L

2016-02-01

A primary focus of the National Institute of Mental Health's current strategic plan is "predicting" who is at risk for disease. As such, the current investigation examined the utility of premorbid sleep reactivity in identifying a specific and manageable population at elevated risk for future insomnia. A community-based sample of adults (n = 2,892; 59.3% female; 47.9 ± 13.3 y old) with no lifetime history of insomnia or depression completed web-based surveys across three annual assessments. Participants reported parental history of insomnia, demographic characteristics, sleep reactivity on the Ford Insomnia in Response to Stress Test (FIRST), and insomnia symptoms. DSM-IV diagnostic criteria were used to determine insomnia classification. Baseline FIRST scores were used to predict incident insomnia at 1-y follow-up. Two clinically meaningful FIRST cutoff values were identified: FIRST ≥ 16 (sensitivity 77%; specificity 50%; odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, P < 0.001); and FIRST ≥ 18 (sensitivity 62%; specificity 67%; OR = 3.32, P < 0.001). Notably, both FIRST cut-points outperformed known maternal (OR = 1.49-1.59, P < 0.01) and paternal history (P = NS) in predicting insomnia onset, even after controlling for stress exposure and demographic characteristics. Of the incident cases, insomniacs with highly reactive sleep systems reported longer sleep onset latencies (FIRST ≥ 16: 65 min; FIRST ≥ 18: 68 min) than participants with nonreactive insomnia (FIRST < 16: 37 min; FIRST < 18: 44 min); these groups did not differ on any other sleep parameters. The current study established a cost- and time-effective strategy for identifying individuals at elevated risk for insomnia based on trait sleep reactivity. The FIRST accurately identifies a focused target population in which the psychobiological processes complicit in insomnia onset and progression can be better investigated, thus improving future preventive efforts. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

PubMed

Nagano, Yasuharu; Yako-Suketomo, Hiroko; Natsui, Hiroaki

2018-01-01

Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury. A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors. The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%). However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001).

Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

2018-05-01

Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Population at risk for eating disorders in a Spanish region.

PubMed

Gandarillas, A; Febrel, C; Galán, I; León, C; Zorrilla, B; Bueno, R

2004-09-01

To estimate the prevalence of adolescent population at risk for eating disorders (EDs), to examine gender differences and their association with non-psychotic mental disorders. Cross-sectional study using an anonymous, self-reported questionnaire in the classroom and measurement of weight and height in a representative sample of 4334 teenagers of both sexes. A definition of population at risk for EDs has been established, that differentiates those with dieting criteria and those with binge-purge eating behaviour criteria. This definition includes a combination of weight, behaviour, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria, and Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) results. The General Health Questionnaire-28 (GHQ-28) was used to assess non-psychotic mental disorders. The prevalence of population at risk for EDs was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.6-2.8) for men and 15.3% (95% CI: 13.8-16.9) for women. The prevalence rate of combining both ED risk and mental disorder was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.4-1.2) for men and 9.9% (95% CI: 8.6-11.2) for women. Non-psychotic mental disorders were more prevalent in the population at risk for EDs than in the rest of the population. A considerable proportion of adolescent females have eating problems and non-psychotic mental disorders. Their male counterparts also suffer from these disorders, however, a different pattern is followed.

Identifying children at risk for being bullies in the United States.

PubMed

Shetgiri, Rashmi; Lin, Hua; Flores, Glenn

2012-01-01

To identify risk factors associated with the greatest and lowest prevalence of bullying perpetration among U.S. children. Using the 2001-2002 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children, a nationally representative survey of U.S. children in 6th-10th grades, bivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with any (once or twice or more), moderate (two to three times/month or more), and frequent (weekly or more) bullying. Stepwise multivariable analyses identified risk factors associated with bullying. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) identified risk factors which, in combination, identify students with the highest and lowest bullying prevalence. The prevalence of any bullying in the 13,710 students was 37.3%, moderate bullying was 12.6%, and frequent bullying was 6.6%. Characteristics associated with bullying were similar in the multivariable analyses and RPA clusters. In RPA, the highest prevalence of any bullying (67%) accrued in children with a combination of fighting and weapon-carrying. Students who carry weapons, smoke, and drink alcohol more than 5 to 6 days/week were at greatest risk for moderate bullying (61%). Those who carry weapons, smoke, have more than one alcoholic drink per day, have above-average academic performance, moderate/high family affluence, and feel irritable or bad-tempered daily were at greatest risk for frequent bullying (68%). Risk clusters for any, moderate, and frequent bullying differ. Children who fight and carry weapons are at greatest risk of any bullying. Weapon-carrying, smoking, and alcohol use are included in the greatest risk clusters for moderate and frequent bullying. Risk-group categories may be useful to providers in identifying children at the greatest risk for bullying and in targeting interventions. Copyright © 2012 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying nursing home residents at risk for falling.

PubMed

Kiely, D K; Kiel, D P; Burrows, A B; Lipsitz, L A

1998-05-01

To develop a fall risk model that can be used to identify prospectively nursing home residents at risk for falling. The secondary objective was to determine whether the nursing home environment independently influenced the development of falls. A prospective study involving 1 year of follow-up. Two hundred seventy-two nursing homes in the state of Washington. A total of 18,855 residents who had a baseline assessment in 1991 and a follow-up assessment within the subsequent year. Baseline Minimum Data Set items that could be potential risk factors for falling were considered as independent variables. The dependent variable was whether the resident fell as reported at the follow-up assessment. We estimated the extrinsic risk attributable to particular nursing home environments by calculating the annual fall rate in each nursing home and grouping them into tertiles of fall risk according to these rates. Factors associated independently with falling were fall history, wandering behavior, use of a cane or walker, deterioration of activities of daily living performance, age greater than 87 years, unsteady gait, transfer independence, wheelchair independence, and male gender. Nursing home residents with a fall history were more than three times as likely to fall during the follow-up period than residents without a fall history. Residents in homes with the highest tertile of fall rates were more than twice as likely to fall compared with residents of homes in the lowest tertile, independent of resident-specific risk factors. Fall history was identified as the strongest risk factor associated with subsequent falls and accounted for the vast majority of the predictive strength of the model. We recommend that fall history be used as an initial screener for determining eligibility for fall intervention efforts. Studies are needed to determine the facility characteristics that contribute to fall risk, independent of resident-specific risk factors.

The global limits and population at risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections in 2010

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Understanding the global limits of transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) species is essential for quantifying the population at-risk and the burden of disease. This paper aims to define these limits on the basis of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and additionally seeks to investigate the effects of urbanisation and economic development on STH transmission, and estimate numbers at-risk of infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in 2010. Methods A total of 4,840 geo-referenced estimates of infection prevalence were abstracted from the Global Atlas of Helminth Infection and related to a range of environmental factors to delineate the biological limits of transmission. The relationship between STH transmission and urbanisation and economic development was investigated using high resolution population surfaces and country-level socioeconomic indicators, respectively. Based on the identified limits, the global population at risk of STH transmission in 2010 was estimated. Results High and low land surface temperature and extremely arid environments were found to limit STH transmission, with differential limits identified for each species. There was evidence that the prevalence of A. lumbricoides and of T. trichiura infection was statistically greater in peri-urban areas compared to urban and rural areas, whilst the prevalence of hookworm was highest in rural areas. At national levels, no clear socioeconomic correlates of transmission were identified, with the exception that little or no infection was observed for countries with a per capita gross domestic product greater than US$ 20,000. Globally in 2010, an estimated 5.3 billion people, including 1.0 billion school-aged children, lived in areas stable for transmission of at least one STH species, with 69% of these individuals living in Asia. A further 143 million (31.1 million school-aged children) lived in areas of unstable transmission for at least one STH

A simple risk score for identifying individuals with impaired fasting glucose in the Southern Chinese population.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-23

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006-2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008-2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008-2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Wang, Hui; Liu, Tao; Qiu, Quan; Ding, Peng; He, Yan-Hui; Chen, Wei-Qing

2015-01-01

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice. PMID:25625405

Identifying Women at Risk for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Syndrome Utilizing Breast Care Nurse Navigation at Mammography and Imaging Centers.

PubMed

Appel, Susan J; Cleiment, Rosemary J

2015-12-01

Approximately 5-10% of breast cancer cases appear in families at a higher rate and at an earlier onset than in the average population. Two known gene defects, BRCA1 and BRCA2, account for the majority of these hereditary related breast cancers. Additionally, BRCA1 and BRCA2 are related to the Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer syndrome (HBOC), where risk for other related cancers are increased. Various health-care professional organizations provide guidelines that speak to the need for conducting risk assessments, but little research has been conducted focusing on the initial screening for this syndrome. This quality improvement project attempts to determine if Nurse Navigators can effectively perform the initial education and screening for HBOC syndrome within a mammography and women's breast imaging setting using a simplified patient history tool. E. M. Rodgers' Diffusion of Innovation model, a map of how new ideas and programs have become adopted and accepted, guided this project's development and implementation. Over the course of 8 weeks, 1,420 women seeking service at 3 mammography and imaging sites were given a new risk assessment tool for HBOC. Additionally, the use of Nurse Navigation to identify women who may be at risk for HBOC was implemented. Two populations seeking service at the study sites were evaluated: (1) women obtaining breast screening/imaging services and (2) women receiving breast biopsy results. Patients identified as "at-risk" were defined by evidence-based practice guidelines from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and were referred for further genetic evaluation by a genetic professional. During this initial implementation of the HBOC risk assessment program, low participation of screening/imaging patients requesting HBOC education and evaluation occurred (129 screening patients or 9%). High rates of positive biopsy patients (5 patients or 34.7%) werefound to be at risk for HBOC compared to similar studies. Identifying HBOC risk

A Probabilistic Model for Cushing's Syndrome Screening in At-Risk Populations: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

PubMed

León-Justel, Antonio; Madrazo-Atutxa, Ainara; Alvarez-Rios, Ana I; Infantes-Fontán, Rocio; Garcia-Arnés, Juan A; Lillo-Muñoz, Juan A; Aulinas, Anna; Urgell-Rull, Eulàlia; Boronat, Mauro; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Fajardo-Montañana, Carmen; Ortuño-Alonso, Mario; Salinas-Vert, Isabel; Granada, Maria L; Cano, David A; Leal-Cerro, Alfonso

2016-10-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is challenging to diagnose. Increased prevalence of CS in specific patient populations has been reported, but routine screening for CS remains questionable. To decrease the diagnostic delay and improve disease outcomes, simple new screening methods for CS in at-risk populations are needed. To develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict CS based on clinical signs and an easy-to-use biochemical test. Observational, prospective, multicenter. Referral hospital. A cohort of 353 patients attending endocrinology units for outpatient visits. All patients were evaluated with late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) and a low-dose dexamethasone suppression test for CS. Diagnosis or exclusion of CS. Twenty-six cases of CS were diagnosed in the cohort. A risk scoring system was developed by logistic regression analysis, and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. This risk score included clinical signs and symptoms (muscular atrophy, osteoporosis, and dorsocervical fat pad) and LNSC levels. The estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93, with a sensitivity of 96.2% and specificity of 82.9%. We developed a risk score to predict CS in an at-risk population. This score may help to identify at-risk patients in non-endocrinological settings such as primary care, but external validation is warranted.

Identifying high-risk areas for sporadic measles outbreaks: lessons from South Africa.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn; Cohen, C; Chirwa, T; Ntshoe, G; Puren, A; Hofman, K

2013-03-01

To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011. Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012. A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken. The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Incidence of neonatal hypoglycemia in babies identified as at risk.

PubMed

Harris, Deborah L; Weston, Philip J; Harding, Jane E

2012-11-01

Routine blood glucose screening is recommended for babies at risk of neonatal hypoglycemia. However, the incidence of hypoglycemia in those screened is not well described. We sought to determine the incidence of hypoglycemia in babies identified as being at risk, and also to determine differences in incidence between at risk groups. Infants (n = 514) were recruited who were born in a tertiary hospital, ≥35 weeks gestation and identified as at risk of hypoglycemia (small, large, infant of a diabetic, late-preterm, and other). Blood glucose screening used a standard protocol and a glucose oxidase method of glucose measurement in the first 48 hours after birth. One-half of the babies (260/514, 51%) became hypoglycemic (<2.6 mM), 97 (19%) had severe hypoglycemia (≤2.0 mM), and 98 (19%) had more than 1 episode. The mean duration of an episode was 1.4 hours. Most episodes (315/390, 81%) occurred in the first 24 hours. The median number of blood glucose measurements for each baby was 9 (range 1-22). The incidence and timing of hypoglycemia was similar in all at risk groups, but babies with a total of 3 risk factors were more likely to have severe hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia is common amongst babies recommended for routine blood glucose screening. We found no evidence that screening protocols should differ in different at risk groups, but multiple risk factors may increase severity. The significance of these hypoglycemic episodes for long-term outcome remains undetermined. Copyright © 2012 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Using the WHO-5 Well-Being Index to Identify College Students at Risk for Mental Health Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Downs, Andrew; Boucher, Laura A.; Campbell, Duncan G.; Polyakov, Anita

2017-01-01

There is a clear need for colleges to do a better job of identifying students who may benefit from treatment and encouraging those students to actually seek help (Hunt & Eisenberg, 2010). Indeed, research suggests that population-based screening can encourage college students who are at risk for mental health problems to seek treatment (Kim,…

School-based Study to Identify and Treat Adolescent Students at Risk for Tuberculosis Infection.

PubMed

Hatzenbuehler, Lindsay A; Starke, Jeffrey R; Graviss, Edward A; Smith, E O'Brian; Cruz, Andrea T

2016-07-01

Screening for and treating tuberculosis (TB) infection in children and adolescents is an effective way of decreasing future TB cases. However, current approaches leave many children at risk for TB unidentified. We recruited adolescent students from 2 public high schools (a magnet and a low-income) in the Houston Independent School District. Compared with the magnet school, the student population at the low-income school was larger, primarily Hispanic and economically disadvantaged. Students were educated about TB, and parents completed a risk factor questionnaire. Students with TB risk factors were tested using 2 interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs). Those with a positive IGRA received a 12-dose regimen of weekly isoniazid/rifapentine (3HP) administered via direct observation at school. Nine hundred twenty-five students received TB education; 73% of their parents submitted the TB questionnaire. Eighty-six percent of students (n = 415) with a TB risk factor identified on the study questionnaire agreed to IGRA testing. Sixteen students had at least one positive IGRA (1% [magnet], 4.1% [low-income]; P = 0.005). Recent student travel to a high-risk country (7) or contact with TB disease (2) were associated with IGRA positivity (P < 0.05). All students with a positive IGRA accepted, tolerated and completed 3HP treatment at school. School-based TB education, screening, testing using IGRAs and administration of 3HP treatment is feasible to improve the identification and treatment of adolescent students at risk for TB.

Can subsyndromal manifestations of major depression be identified in children at risk?

PubMed

Uchida, M; Fitzgerald, M; Lin, K; Carrellas, N; Woodworth, H; Biederman, J

2017-02-01

Children of parents with major depression are at significantly increased risk for developing major depression themselves; however, not all children at genetic risk will develop major depressive disorder (MDD). We investigated the utility of subsyndromal scores on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) Anxiety/Depression scale in identifying children at the highest risk for pediatric MDD from among the pool of children of parents with MDD or bipolar disorder. The sample was derived from two previously conducted longitudinal case-control family studies of psychiatrically and pediatrically referred youth and their families. For this study, probands were stratified based on the presence or absence of a parental mood disorder. Subsyndromal scores on the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale significantly separated the children at high risk for pediatric MDD from those at low risk in a variety of functional areas, including social and academic functioning. Additionally, children at genetic risk without elevated CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale scores were largely indistinguishable from controls. These results suggest that the CBCL Anxiety/Depression scale can help identify children at highest risk for pediatric MDD. If implemented clinically, this scale would cost-effectively screen children and identify those most in need of early intervention resources to impede the progression of depression. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Targeting populations at higher risk for malaria: a survey of national malaria elimination programmes in the Asia Pacific.

PubMed

Wen, Shawn; Harvard, Kelly E; Gueye, Cara Smith; Canavati, Sara E; Chancellor, Arna; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Leaburi, John; Lek, Dysoley; Namgay, Rinzin; Surya, Asik; Thakur, Garib D; Whittaker, Maxine Anne; Gosling, Roly D

2016-05-10

Significant progress has been made in reducing the malaria burden in the Asia Pacific region, which is aggressively pursuing a 2030 regional elimination goal. Moving from malaria control to elimination requires National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs) to target interventions at populations at higher risk, who are often not reached by health services, highly mobile and difficult to test, treat, and track with routine measures, and if undiagnosed, can maintain parasite reservoirs and contribute to ongoing transmission. A qualitative, free-text questionnaire was developed and disseminated among 17 of the 18 partner countries of the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network (APMEN). All 14 countries that responded to the survey identified key populations at higher risk of malaria in their respective countries. Thirteen countries engage in the dissemination of malaria-related Information, Education, and Communication (IEC) materials. Eight countries engage in diagnostic screening, including of mobile and migrant workers, military staff, and/or overseas workers. Ten countries reported distributing or recommending the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) among populations at higher risk with fewer countries engaging in other prevention measures such as indoor residual spraying (IRS) (two countries), spatial repellents (four countries), chemoprophylaxis (five countries), and mass drug administration (MDA) (three countries). Though not specifically tailored to populations at higher risk, 11 countries reported using mass blood surveys as a surveillance tool and ten countries map case data. Most NMCPs lack a monitoring and evaluation structure. Countries in the Asia Pacific have identified populations at higher risk and targeted interventions to these groups but there is limited information on the effectiveness of these interventions. Platforms like APMEN offer the opportunity for the sharing of protocols and lessons learned related to finding, targeting and

Selecting at-risk populations for sexually transmitted disease/HIV intervention studies.

PubMed

Wu, Zunyou; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Detels, Roger; Li, Li; Guan, Jihui; Liang, Guojun; Yap, Lorraine

2007-12-01

This paper describes one option to select populations for randomized, controlled trials (RCT). We used a popular opinion leader intervention in Fuzhou, China, to: (1) identify population selection criteria; (2) systematically examine the suitability of potential target populations and settings; (3) briefly evaluate risk and stability in the population; and (4) evaluate regional and organizational support among administrators and government officials. After comparing migrant villagers, truck drivers, factory workers, construction workers, and market employees in five regions of China, market employees in Fuzhou were identified as the optimal target population. Markets were the optimal sites for several reasons: (1) the population demonstrated a sufficient base rate of sexually transmitted diseases; (2) the population was stable over time; (3) a sufficient number of sites of manageable sizes were available; (4) stable networks existed; (5) local gatekeepers/stakeholders supported the intervention; (6) there was organizational capacity in the local health department to mount the intervention; (7) the demographic profile was similar across potential sites; and (8) the sites were sufficiently distanced to minimize contamination. Evaluating intervention efficacy in an RCT requires a time-consuming and rigorous process that systematically and routinely documents selection criteria, evaluates multiple populations, sites, and organizations for their appropriateness.

In Search of Black Swans: Identifying Students at Risk of Failing Licensing Examinations.

PubMed

Barber, Cassandra; Hammond, Robert; Gula, Lorne; Tithecott, Gary; Chahine, Saad

2018-03-01

To determine which admissions variables and curricular outcomes are predictive of being at risk of failing the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part 1 (MCCQE1), how quickly student risk of failure can be predicted, and to what extent predictive modeling is possible and accurate in estimating future student risk. Data from five graduating cohorts (2011-2015), Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University, were collected and analyzed using hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of predictive models and determine whether they could be used to predict future risk, using the 2016 graduating cohort. Four predictive models were developed to predict student risk of failure at admissions, year 1, year 2, and pre-MCCQE1. The HGLM analyses identified gender, MCAT verbal reasoning score, two preclerkship course mean grades, and the year 4 summative objective structured clinical examination score as significant predictors of student risk. The predictive accuracy of the models varied. The pre-MCCQE1 model was the most accurate at predicting a student's risk of failing (AUC 0.66-0.93), while the admissions model was not predictive (AUC 0.25-0.47). Key variables predictive of students at risk were found. The predictive models developed suggest, while it is not possible to identify student risk at admission, we can begin to identify and monitor students within the first year. Using such models, programs may be able to identify and monitor students at risk quantitatively and develop tailored intervention strategies.

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability.

PubMed

Ring, Caroline L; Pearce, Robert G; Setzer, R Woodrow; Wetmore, Barbara A; Wambaugh, John F

2017-09-01

The thousands of chemicals present in the environment (USGAO, 2013) must be triaged to identify priority chemicals for human health risk research. Most chemicals have little of the toxicokinetic (TK) data that are necessary for relating exposures to tissue concentrations that are believed to be toxic. Ongoing efforts have collected limited, in vitro TK data for a few hundred chemicals. These data have been combined with biomonitoring data to estimate an approximate margin between potential hazard and exposure. The most "at risk" 95th percentile of adults have been identified from simulated populations that are generated either using standard "average" adult human parameters or very specific cohorts such as Northern Europeans. To better reflect the modern U.S. population, we developed a population simulation using physiologies based on distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities from the most recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. This allowed incorporation of inter-individual variability, including variability across relevant demographic subgroups. Variability was analyzed with a Monte Carlo approach that accounted for the correlation structure in physiological parameters. To identify portions of the U.S. population that are more at risk for specific chemicals, physiologic variability was incorporated within an open-source high-throughput (HT) TK modeling framework. We prioritized 50 chemicals based on estimates of both potential hazard and exposure. Potential hazard was estimated from in vitro HT screening assays (i.e., the Tox21 and ToxCast programs). Bioactive in vitro concentrations were extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse dosimetry approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with: 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with

Identifying children at risk for type 2 diabetes in underserved communities.

PubMed

Vivian, Eva M; Carrel, Aaron L; Becker, Tara

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and assess health behaviors among ethnic minority children at high risk for type 2 diabetes. Diabetes screenings were conducted at community centers, churches, and local neighborhood health fairs in Madison, Wisconsin. During these events, diabetes risk assessment surveys were given to parents of children between the ages of 10 to 19 years. Parents who identified their children as having 2 or more risk factors for type 2 diabetes were invited to have their child screened for type 2 diabetes. A total of 86 children between the ages of 10 to 19 years (mean age = 13; 58% male) were screened for diabetes. Fifty-one percent of the children were overweight or obese with 38% having >3 risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there was no significant difference in the nutritional habits reported between normal, overweight, or obese children, fewer overweight and obese children reported exercising at least 30 minutes 5 to 7 days a week compared to children with a normal weight (P = .033). Prevention of diabetes is a powerful public health intervention. Targeted diabetes screening in disadvantaged, underserved communities is an effective way to identify families with children at risk for type 2 diabetes. In addition, information obtained from these screenings can assist researchers and clinicians in designing accessible and affordable health promotion interventions that are culturally relevant to the youth and families within the community.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus disease risk genes identified by genome wide copy number variation scan in normal populations.

PubMed

Prabhanjan, Manasa; Suresh, Raviraj V; Murthy, Megha N; Ramachandra, Nallur B

2016-03-01

To identify the role of copy number variations (CNVs) on disease risk genes and its effect on disease phenotypes in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in 12 random populations using high throughput arrays. CNV analysis was carried out on a total of 1715 individuals from 12 populations, from ArrayExpress Archive of the European Bioinformatics Institute along with our subjects using Affymetrix Genome Wide SNP 6.0 array. CNV effect on T2DM genes were analyzed using several bioinformatics tools and a molecular protein interaction network was constructed to identify the disease mechanism altered by the CNVs. Analysis showed 34.4% of the total population to be under CNV burden for T2DM, with 83 disease causal and associated genes being under CNV influence. Hotspots were identified on chromosomes 22, 12, 6, 19 and 11.Overlap studies with case cohorts revealed significant disease risk genes such as EGFR, E2F1, PPP1R3A, HLA and TSPAN8. CNVs play a significant role in predisposing T2DM in normal cohorts and contribute to the phenotypic effects. Thus, CNVs should be considered as one of the major contributors in predisposition of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying At-Risk Students in General Chemistry via Cluster Analysis of Affective Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Julia Y. K.; Bauer, Christopher F.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to identify academically at-risk students in first-semester general chemistry using affective characteristics via cluster analysis. Through the clustering of six preselected affective variables, three distinct affective groups were identified: low (at-risk), medium, and high. Students in the low affective group…

A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework Tool to Identify Hotspots at the Regional Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dongeren, A.; Viavattene, C.; Jimenez, J. A.; Ferreira, O.; Bolle, A.; Owen, D.; Priest, S.

2016-02-01

Extreme events in combination with an increasing population on the coast, future sea level rise and the deterioration of coastal defences can lead to catastrophic consequences for coastal communities and their activities. The Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit (RISC-KIT) FP7 EU project is producing a set of EU-coherent open-source and open-access tools in support of coastal managers and decision-makers. This paper presents one of these tools, the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) which assesses coastal risk at a regional scale to identify potential impact hotspots for more detailed assessment. Applying a suite of complex models at a full and detailed regional scale remains difficult and may not be efficient, therefore a 2-phase approach is adopted. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process based on a coastal-index approach delimiting several hotspots in alongshore length by assessing the potential exposure for every kilometre along the coast. CRAF Phase 2 uses a suite of more complex modelling process (including X-beach 1D, inundation model, impact assessment and Multi-Criteria Analysis approach) to analyse and compare the risks between the aforementioned identified hotspots. Results of its application are compared on 3 European Case Studies, the Flemish highly protected low-lying coastal plain with important urbanization and harbors, a Portuguese coastal lagoon protected by a multi-inlet barrier system, the highly urbanized Catalonian coast with touristic activities at threat. The flexibility of the tool allows tailoring the comparative analysis to these different contexts and to adapt to the quality of resources and data available. Key lessons will be presented.

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

PubMed Central

Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

2004-01-01

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

Identifying at-risk children at school entry: the usefulness of multibehavioral problem profiles.

PubMed

Flanagan, Kelly S; Bierman, Karen L; Kam, Chi-Ming

2003-09-01

Found that 1st-grade teacher ratings of aggressive, hyperactive-inattentive, and low levels of prosocial behaviors made unique contributions to the prediction of school outcomes (measured 2 years later) for 755 children. Person-oriented analyses compared the predictive utility of 5 screening strategies based on child problem profiles to identify children at risk for school problems. A broad screening strategy, in which children with elevations in any 1 of the 3 behavior problem dimensions were identified as "at-risk," showed lower specificity but superior sensitivity, odds ratios, and overall accuracy in the prediction of school outcomes than the other screening strategies that were more narrowly focused or were based on a total problem score. Results are discussed in terms of implications for the screening and design of preventive interventions.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Prevalence of BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations in a Brazilian population sample at-risk for hereditary breast cancer and characterization of its genetic ancestry

PubMed Central

Paula, André E.; Pereira, Rui; Andrade, Carlos E.; Felicio, Paula S.; Souza, Cristiano P.; Mendes, Deise R.P.; Volc, Sahlua; Berardinelli, Gustavo N.; Grasel, Rebeca S.; Sabato, Cristina S.; Viana, Danilo V.; Machado, José Carlos; Costa, José Luis; Mauad, Edmundo C.; Scapulatempo-Neto, Cristovam; Arun, Banu; Reis, Rui M.; Palmero, Edenir I.

2016-01-01

Background There are very few data about the mutational profile of families at-risk for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) from Latin America (LA) and especially from Brazil, the largest and most populated country in LA. Results Of the 349 probands analyzed, 21.5% were BRCA1/BRCA2 mutated, 65.3% at BRCA1 and 34.7% at BRCA2 gene. The mutation c.5266dupC (former 5382insC) was the most frequent alteration, representing 36.7% of the BRCA1 mutations and 24.0% of all mutations identified. Together with the BRCA1 c.3331_3334delCAAG mutation, these mutations constitutes about 35% of the identified mutations and more than 50% of the BRCA1 pathogenic mutations. Interestingly, six new mutations were identified. Additionally, 39 out of the 44 pathogenic mutations identified were not previously reported in the Brazilian population. Besides, 36 different variants of unknown significance (VUS) were identified. Regarding ancestry, average ancestry proportions were 70.6% European, 14.5% African, 8.0% Native American and 6.8% East Asian. Materials and methods This study characterized 349 Brazilian families at-risk for HBOC regarding their germline BRCA1/BRCA2 status and genetic ancestry. Conclusions This is the largest report of BRCA1/BRCA2 assessment in an at-risk HBOC Brazilian population. We identified 21.5% of patients harboring BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations and characterized the genetic ancestry of a sample group at-risk for hereditary breast cancer showing once again how admixed is the Brazilian population. No association was found between genetic ancestry and mutational status. The knowledge of the mutational profile in a population can contribute to the definition of more cost-effective strategies for the identification of HBOC families. PMID:27741520

Identifying Occupations at Risk for Laryngeal Disorders Requiring Specialty Voice Care.

PubMed

Mori, Matthew C; Francis, David O; Song, Phillip C

2017-10-01

Objective To identify occupational groups' use of specialty voice clinic evaluation. Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary subspecialty clinic. Subjects and Methods We analyzed data collected on patients presenting to the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary Voice and Speech Laboratory over a 20-year period (1993-2013). The relative risk (RR) and 99% confidence interval (CI) of presentation were calculated for each occupational category in the greater Boston population using year-matched data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Results The records of 12,120 new patients were reviewed. Using year- and occupation-matched BLS data from 2005 to 2013, 2726 patients were included in the cohort analysis. Several occupations had significantly higher risk of presentation. These included arts and entertainment (RR 4.98, CI 4.18-5.95), law (RR 3.24, CI 2.48-4.23), education (RR 3.08, CI 2.70-3.52), and social services (RR 2.07, CI 1.57-2.73). In contrast, many occupations had significantly reduced risk of presentation for laryngological disorders, for example, maintenance (RR 0.25, CI 0.15-0.42), food preparation (RR 0.35, CI 0.26-0.48), and administrative support (RR 0.49, CI 0.41-0.57). Conclusion Certain occupations are associated with higher use of laryngological services presumably because of their vocational voice needs. In addition to confirming findings from other studies, we identified several new occupation groups with increased or decreased risk for laryngologic disorders. Understanding what factors predispose to requiring specialty voice evaluation may help in targeting preventative efforts.

A meta-analysis of multiple myeloma risk regions in African and European ancestry populations identifies putatively functional loci

PubMed Central

Rand, Kristin A.; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J.; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H.; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S.; Bock, Cathryn H.; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K.; V.Conti, David; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E.; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Blot, William J.; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W. Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L.; Lieber, Michael R.; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Hennis, Anselm J.M.; Hsing, Ann W.; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A.; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A.; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B.; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S.; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A.; Stanford, Janet L.; Signorello, Lisa B.; Witte, John S.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M.; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F.; Hu, Jennifer J.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Nyante, Sarah J.; Bandera, Elisa V.; Birmann, Brenda M.; Ingles, Sue A.; Press, Michael F.; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J.; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G.; Kumar, Shaji K.; Wolf, Jeffrey L.; Deming, Sandra L.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R.; Rajkumar, S. Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Slager, Susan L.; Severson, Richard K.; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R.; Brown, Elizabeth E.; De Roos, Anneclaire J.; Mohrbacher, Ann F.; Colditz, Graham A.; Giles, Graham G.; Spinelli, John J.; Chiu, Brian C.; Munshi, Nikhil C.; Anderson, Kenneth C.; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A.; Orlowski, Robert Z.; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O.; Hazelett, Dennis J.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Cozen, Wendy

2017-01-01

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma (MM). Methods We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,264 MM patients and 1,479 controls of European ancestry (EA) and 1,305 MM patients and 7,078 controls of African ancestry (AA) and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. Results We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (p<0.05) associated with MM risk in AAs and EAs and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in EAs only. In a combined AA-EA meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically signficantly associated with MM risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4. Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3′ end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR=1.32, p=2.93×10−7) in TNFRSF13B, encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the tumor necrosis factor receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7. Conclusions We found that reported MM susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. Impact A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma have consistent affects across populations and are likely to be functional. PMID:27587788

Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

PubMed Central

Vigorito, Elena; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; Beesley, Jonathan; Adlard, Julian; Agnarsson, Bjarni A.; Andrulis, Irene L.; Arun, Banu K.; Barjhoux, Laure; Belotti, Muriel; Benitez, Javier; Berger, Andreas; Bojesen, Anders; Bonanni, Bernardo; Brewer, Carole; Caldes, Trinidad; Caligo, Maria A.; Campbell, Ian; Chan, Salina B.; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Cohn, David E.; Cook, Jackie; Daly, Mary B.; Damiola, Francesca; Davidson, Rosemarie; de Pauw, Antoine; Delnatte, Capucine; Diez, Orland; Domchek, Susan M.; Dumont, Martine; Durda, Katarzyna; Dworniczak, Bernd; Easton, Douglas F.; Eccles, Diana; Edwinsdotter Ardnor, Christina; Eeles, Ros; Ejlertsen, Bent; Ellis, Steve; Evans, D. Gareth; Feliubadalo, Lidia; Fostira, Florentia; Foulkes, William D.; Friedman, Eitan; Frost, Debra; Gaddam, Pragna; Ganz, Patricia A.; Garber, Judy; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Gauthier-Villars, Marion; Gehrig, Andrea; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Giraud, Sophie; Godwin, Andrew K.; Goldgar, David E.; Hake, Christopher R.; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Healey, Sue; Hodgson, Shirley; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Houdayer, Claude; Hulick, Peter J.; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Izatt, Louise; Izquierdo, Angel; Jacobs, Lauren; Jakubowska, Anna; Janavicius, Ramunas; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Jensen, Uffe Birk; John, Esther M.; Vijai, Joseph; Karlan, Beth Y.; Kast, Karin; Investigators, KConFab; Khan, Sofia; Kwong, Ava; Laitman, Yael; Lester, Jenny; Lesueur, Fabienne; Liljegren, Annelie; Lubinski, Jan; Mai, Phuong L.; Manoukian, Siranoush; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Meindl, Alfons; Mensenkamp, Arjen R.; Montagna, Marco; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Niederacher, Dieter; Olah, Edith; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ong, Kai-ren; Osorio, Ana; Park, Sue Kyung; Paulsson-Karlsson, Ylva; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Peissel, Bernard; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pfeiler, Georg; Phelan, Catherine M.; Piedmonte, Marion; Poppe, Bruce; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Radice, Paolo; Rennert, Gad; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Rookus, Matti A.; Ross, Eric A.; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Simard, Jacques; Singer, Christian F.; Slavin, Thomas P.; Soucy, Penny; Southey, Melissa; Steinemann, Doris; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Sutter, Christian; Szabo, Csilla I.; Tea, Muy-Kheng; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Mary Beth; Thomassen, Mads; Tibiletti, Maria Grazia; Tihomirova, Laima; Tognazzo, Silvia; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Varesco, Liliana; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Vratimos, Athanassios; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; McGuffog, Lesley; Kirk, Judy; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Hamann, Ute; Lindor, Noralane; Ramus, Susan J.; Greene, Mark H.; Couch, Fergus J.; Offit, Kenneth; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Antoniou, Antonis C.

2016-01-01

Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Genotype data were available for 15,252 (2,462 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA1 and 8,211 (631 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following genotype imputation, ovarian cancer associations were assessed for 4,873 and 5,020 SNPs in BRCA1 and BRCA 2 mutation carriers respectively, within a retrospective cohort analytical framework. In BRCA1 mutation carriers one set of eight correlated candidate causal variants for ovarian cancer risk modification was identified (top SNP rs10124837, HR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.68 to 0.79, p-value 2× 10−16). These variants were located up to 20 kb upstream of BNC2. In BRCA2 mutation carriers one region, up to 45 kb upstream of BNC2, and containing 100 correlated SNPs was identified as candidate causal (top SNP rs62543585, HR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59 to 0.80, p-value 1.0 × 10−6). The candidate causal in BRCA1 mutation carriers did not include the strongest associated variant at this locus in the general population. In sum, we identified a set of candidate causal variants in a region that encompasses the BNC2 transcription start site. The ovarian cancer association at 9p22.2 may be mediated by different variants in BRCA1 mutation carriers and in the general population. Thus, potentially different mechanisms may underlie ovarian cancer risk for mutation carriers and the general population. PMID:27463617

Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

PubMed

Vigorito, Elena; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Beesley, Jonathan; Adlard, Julian; Agnarsson, Bjarni A; Andrulis, Irene L; Arun, Banu K; Barjhoux, Laure; Belotti, Muriel; Benitez, Javier; Berger, Andreas; Bojesen, Anders; Bonanni, Bernardo; Brewer, Carole; Caldes, Trinidad; Caligo, Maria A; Campbell, Ian; Chan, Salina B; Claes, Kathleen B M; Cohn, David E; Cook, Jackie; Daly, Mary B; Damiola, Francesca; Davidson, Rosemarie; Pauw, Antoine de; Delnatte, Capucine; Diez, Orland; Domchek, Susan M; Dumont, Martine; Durda, Katarzyna; Dworniczak, Bernd; Easton, Douglas F; Eccles, Diana; Edwinsdotter Ardnor, Christina; Eeles, Ros; Ejlertsen, Bent; Ellis, Steve; Evans, D Gareth; Feliubadalo, Lidia; Fostira, Florentia; Foulkes, William D; Friedman, Eitan; Frost, Debra; Gaddam, Pragna; Ganz, Patricia A; Garber, Judy; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Gauthier-Villars, Marion; Gehrig, Andrea; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Giraud, Sophie; Godwin, Andrew K; Goldgar, David E; Hake, Christopher R; Hansen, Thomas V O; Healey, Sue; Hodgson, Shirley; Hogervorst, Frans B L; Houdayer, Claude; Hulick, Peter J; Imyanitov, Evgeny N; Isaacs, Claudine; Izatt, Louise; Izquierdo, Angel; Jacobs, Lauren; Jakubowska, Anna; Janavicius, Ramunas; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Jensen, Uffe Birk; John, Esther M; Vijai, Joseph; Karlan, Beth Y; Kast, Karin; Investigators, KConFab; Khan, Sofia; Kwong, Ava; Laitman, Yael; Lester, Jenny; Lesueur, Fabienne; Liljegren, Annelie; Lubinski, Jan; Mai, Phuong L; Manoukian, Siranoush; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Meindl, Alfons; Mensenkamp, Arjen R; Montagna, Marco; Nathanson, Katherine L; Neuhausen, Susan L; Nevanlinna, Heli; Niederacher, Dieter; Olah, Edith; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Ong, Kai-Ren; Osorio, Ana; Park, Sue Kyung; Paulsson-Karlsson, Ylva; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Peissel, Bernard; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pfeiler, Georg; Phelan, Catherine M; Piedmonte, Marion; Poppe, Bruce; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Radice, Paolo; Rennert, Gad; Rodriguez, Gustavo C; Rookus, Matti A; Ross, Eric A; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Simard, Jacques; Singer, Christian F; Slavin, Thomas P; Soucy, Penny; Southey, Melissa; Steinemann, Doris; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Sutter, Christian; Szabo, Csilla I; Tea, Muy-Kheng; Teixeira, Manuel R; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Mary Beth; Thomassen, Mads; Tibiletti, Maria Grazia; Tihomirova, Laima; Tognazzo, Silvia; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J; Varesco, Liliana; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Vratimos, Athanassios; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; McGuffog, Lesley; Kirk, Judy; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Hamann, Ute; Lindor, Noralane; Ramus, Susan J; Greene, Mark H; Couch, Fergus J; Offit, Kenneth; Pharoah, Paul D P; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Antoniou, Antonis C

2016-01-01

Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Genotype data were available for 15,252 (2,462 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA1 and 8,211 (631 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following genotype imputation, ovarian cancer associations were assessed for 4,873 and 5,020 SNPs in BRCA1 and BRCA 2 mutation carriers respectively, within a retrospective cohort analytical framework. In BRCA1 mutation carriers one set of eight correlated candidate causal variants for ovarian cancer risk modification was identified (top SNP rs10124837, HR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.68 to 0.79, p-value 2× 10-16). These variants were located up to 20 kb upstream of BNC2. In BRCA2 mutation carriers one region, up to 45 kb upstream of BNC2, and containing 100 correlated SNPs was identified as candidate causal (top SNP rs62543585, HR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59 to 0.80, p-value 1.0 × 10-6). The candidate causal in BRCA1 mutation carriers did not include the strongest associated variant at this locus in the general population. In sum, we identified a set of candidate causal variants in a region that encompasses the BNC2 transcription start site. The ovarian cancer association at 9p22.2 may be mediated by different variants in BRCA1 mutation carriers and in the general population. Thus, potentially different mechanisms may underlie ovarian cancer risk for mutation carriers and the general population.

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR) of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution), LandScan (~1 km), UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km), and GPW3 (~5 km). More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was consistently more

Suicide Risk Screening in Healthcare Settings: Identifying Males and Females at Risk

PubMed Central

King, Cheryl A.; Horwitz, Adam; Czyz, Ewa; Lindsay, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Suicide is the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, accounting for more than 42,000 deaths in 2014. Although this tragedy cuts across groups defined by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic location, it is striking that nearly four times as many males as females die by suicide in the U.S. We describe the current regulations and recommendations for suicide risk screening in healthcare systems and also describe the aspirational goal of “Zero Suicide,” put forth by the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention. We then provide information about suicide risk screening tools and steps to take when a patient screens positive for suicide risk. Given the substantially higher suicide rate among males than females, we argue that it is important to consider how we could optimize suicide risk screening strategies to identify males and females at risk. Further research is needed to accomplish this. It is recommended that we consider multi-factorial suicide risk screens that incorporate risk factors known to be particularly important for males as well computerized, adaptive screens that are tailored for the specific risk considerations of the individual patient, male or female. These strategies are not mutually exclusive. Finally, universal suicide risk screening in healthcare settings, especially primary care, specialty medical care, and emergency department settings, is recommended. PMID:28251427

Ability of EDI-2 and EDI-3 to correctly identify patients and subjects at risk for eating disorders.

PubMed

Segura-García, Cristina; Aloi, Matteo; Rania, Marianna; Ciambrone, Paola; Palmieri, Antonella; Pugliese, Valentina; Ruiz Moruno, Antonio José; De Fazio, Pasquale

2015-12-01

The prevention and early recognition of eating disorders (EDs) are important topics in public health. This study aims to compare the efficacy of the Eating Disorder Inventory 2 (EDI-2) with the new version, EDI-3 in recognising patients and identifying subjects at risk for EDs. The EDI-2 and EDI-3 were administered to 92 female patients with ED and 265 females from a population at risk for EDs. Experienced psychiatrists in this field held blind interviews with participants by means of the SCID-I to determine the diagnosis. According to the cut-offs suggested by the authors, the EDI-3 correctly identified nearly all of the ED patients (99%), while the EDI-2 divulged less than half (48%). Both versions of the test showed comparable capability to identify participants at risk for EDs but the EDI-3 seemed slightly more reliable than the EDI-2. The EDI-2 remains a valid and very specific test. However, the new EDI-3 seems to be experimentally superior, because it typifies nearly all patients across the ED span, including those with Binge Eating Disorder and Eating Disorder Not Otherwise Specified. In addition, it appears to be more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional Investigations of HNF1A Identify Rare Variants as Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes in the General Population

PubMed Central

Najmi, Laeya Abdoli; Aukrust, Ingvild; Flannick, Jason; Molnes, Janne; Burtt, Noel; Molven, Anders; Groop, Leif; Altshuler, David; Johansson, Stefan; Njølstad, Pål Rasmus

2017-01-01

Variants in HNF1A encoding hepatocyte nuclear factor 1α (HNF-1A) are associated with maturity-onset diabetes of the young form 3 (MODY 3) and type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether functional classification of HNF1A rare coding variants can inform models of diabetes risk prediction in the general population by analyzing the effect of 27 HNF1A variants identified in well-phenotyped populations (n = 4,115). Bioinformatics tools classified 11 variants as likely pathogenic and showed no association with diabetes risk (combined minor allele frequency [MAF] 0.22%; odds ratio [OR] 2.02; 95% CI 0.73–5.60; P = 0.18). However, a different set of 11 variants that reduced HNF-1A transcriptional activity to <60% of normal (wild-type) activity was strongly associated with diabetes in the general population (combined MAF 0.22%; OR 5.04; 95% CI 1.99–12.80; P = 0.0007). Our functional investigations indicate that 0.44% of the population carry HNF1A variants that result in a substantially increased risk for developing diabetes. These results suggest that functional characterization of variants within MODY genes may overcome the limitations of bioinformatics tools for the purposes of presymptomatic diabetes risk prediction in the general population. PMID:27899486

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

PubMed Central

Diao, Diana Y; Lee, Tim K

2014-01-01

Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes. PMID:24379732

Understanding At-Risk Korean American Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suh, Suhyun; Satcher, Jamie

2005-01-01

Researchers have identified characteristics that place students at risk for school dropout, as well as characteristics specific to Asian American students that influence school maladjustment. Although the Korean American population is growing, little research has been conducted specific to Korean American students who may be at risk for dropping…

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

PubMed

Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

2015-12-04

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

PubMed Central

Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

2015-01-01

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

Developmental Outcomes of Foster Children: A Meta-Analytic Comparison With Children From the General Population and Children at Risk Who Remained at Home.

PubMed

Goemans, Anouk; van Geel, Mitch; van Beem, Merel; Vedder, Paul

2016-08-01

Foster care is often preferred to other placement options for children in the child welfare system. However, it is not clear how the developmental outcomes of foster children relate to children in other living arrangements. In this study, a series of meta-analyses are performed to compare the cognitive, adaptive, and behavioral functioning of children placed in foster care (n = 2,305) with children at risk who remained with their biological parents (n = 4,335) and children from the general population (n = 4,971). A systematic literature search in PsycINFO, Medline, ERIC, and ProQuest identified 31 studies suitable for inclusion (N = 11,611). Results showed that foster children had generally lower levels of functioning than children from the general population. No clear differences were found between foster children and children at risk who remained at home, but both groups experienced developmental problems. Improving the quality of foster care and future research to identify which children are best served by either foster care or in-home services are recommended. © The Author(s) 2016.

Population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke: the usage of cooling appliances among urban elderlies in Japan.

PubMed

Kondo, Masahide; Ono, Masaji; Nakazawa, Kouichi; Kayaba, Momoko; Minakuchi, Emiko; Sugimoto, Kazutoshi; Honda, Yasushi

2013-05-01

Heatstroke due to a heat wave during the summer is one of the commonly known health impacts of climate change in Japan. The elderly are particularly at high-risk of developing indoor heatstroke with poor prognosis. This study aims to describe the population among elderlies at high-risk of indoor heatstroke by focusing on the usage of cooling appliances. We conducted a web-based household survey in eight urban areas during the winter season of 2011. Households with a person aged 65 and over were selected as samples from panel members of a research firm, and the oldest member of the household was queried about his/her usage of cooling appliances. The population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke is defined as the elderly staying in a room without cooling appliances, or not using the installed cooling appliances, or turning the cooling appliances on only when the room temperature is above 28 °C. 15.4 and 19.1 % of the elderlies living in urban areas of Japan are identified as at high-risk of indoor heatstroke during activity time and sleeping time, respectively, according to the definition of high-risk of indoor heatstroke in this study. These figures are not negligible since the consequences of heatstroke are grave, but its risk can be eliminated by an appropriate usage of cooling appliances. The preventive interventions are needed to protect the elderlies at high-risk of heatstroke.

A Meta-analysis of Multiple Myeloma Risk Regions in African and European Ancestry Populations Identifies Putatively Functional Loci.

PubMed

Rand, Kristin A; Song, Chi; Dean, Eric; Serie, Daniel J; Curtin, Karen; Sheng, Xin; Hu, Donglei; Huff, Carol Ann; Bernal-Mizrachi, Leon; Tomasson, Michael H; Ailawadhi, Sikander; Singhal, Seema; Pawlish, Karen; Peters, Edward S; Bock, Cathryn H; Stram, Alex; Van Den Berg, David J; Edlund, Christopher K; Conti, David V; Zimmerman, Todd; Hwang, Amie E; Huntsman, Scott; Graff, John; Nooka, Ajay; Kong, Yinfei; Pregja, Silvana L; Berndt, Sonja I; Blot, William J; Carpten, John; Casey, Graham; Chu, Lisa; Diver, W Ryan; Stevens, Victoria L; Lieber, Michael R; Goodman, Phyllis J; Hennis, Anselm J M; Hsing, Ann W; Mehta, Jayesh; Kittles, Rick A; Kolb, Suzanne; Klein, Eric A; Leske, Cristina; Murphy, Adam B; Nemesure, Barbara; Neslund-Dudas, Christine; Strom, Sara S; Vij, Ravi; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Stanford, Janet L; Signorello, Lisa B; Witte, John S; Ambrosone, Christine B; Bhatti, Parveen; John, Esther M; Bernstein, Leslie; Zheng, Wei; Olshan, Andrew F; Hu, Jennifer J; Ziegler, Regina G; Nyante, Sarah J; Bandera, Elisa V; Birmann, Brenda M; Ingles, Sue A; Press, Michael F; Atanackovic, Djordje; Glenn, Martha J; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A; Jones, Brandt; Tricot, Guido; Martin, Thomas G; Kumar, Shaji K; Wolf, Jeffrey L; Deming Halverson, Sandra L; Rothman, Nathaniel; Brooks-Wilson, Angela R; Rajkumar, S Vincent; Kolonel, Laurence N; Chanock, Stephen J; Slager, Susan L; Severson, Richard K; Janakiraman, Nalini; Terebelo, Howard R; Brown, Elizabeth E; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Mohrbacher, Ann F; Colditz, Graham A; Giles, Graham G; Spinelli, John J; Chiu, Brian C; Munshi, Nikhil C; Anderson, Kenneth C; Levy, Joan; Zonder, Jeffrey A; Orlowski, Robert Z; Lonial, Sagar; Camp, Nicola J; Vachon, Celine M; Ziv, Elad; Stram, Daniel O; Hazelett, Dennis J; Haiman, Christopher A; Cozen, Wendy

2016-12-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma. We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,318 patients with multiple myeloma and 1,480 controls of European ancestry and 1,305 patients with multiple myeloma and 7,078 controls of African ancestry and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (P < 0.05) associated with multiple myeloma risk in persons of African ancestry and persons of European ancestry, and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in European ancestry only. In a combined African ancestry-European ancestry meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically significantly associated with multiple myeloma risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4 Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3' end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR, 1.32; P = 2.93 × 10 -7 ) in TNFRSF13B encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the TNF receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7 CONCLUSIONS: We found that reported multiple myeloma susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations, supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma has consistent effects across populations and is likely to be functional. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1609-18. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Identifying Children at High Risk for a Child Maltreatment Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubowitz, Howard; Kim, Jeongeun; Black, Maureen M.; Weisbart, Cindy; Semiatin, Joshua; Magder, Laurence S.

2011-01-01

Objective: To help professionals identify factors that place families at risk for future child maltreatment, to facilitate necessary services and to potentially help prevent abuse and neglect. Method: The data are from a prospective, longitudinal study of 332 low-income families recruited from urban pediatric primary care clinics, followed for…

[Diagnostic evaluation of the developmental level in children identified at risk of delay through the Child Development Evaluation Test].

PubMed

Rizzoli-Córdoba, Antonio; Campos-Maldonado, Martha Carmen; Vélez-Andrade, Víctor Hugo; Delgado-Ginebra, Ismael; Baqueiro-Hernández, César Iván; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel; Reyes-Morales, Hortensia; Ojeda-Lara, Lucía; Davis-Martínez, Erika Berenice; O'Shea-Cuevas, Gabriel; Aceves-Villagrán, Daniel; Carrasco-Mendoza, Joaquín; Villagrán-Muñoz, Víctor Manuel; Halley-Castillo, Elizabeth; Sidonio-Aguayo, Beatriz; Palma-Tavera, Josuha Alexander; Muñoz-Hernández, Onofre

The Child Development Evaluation (or CDE Test) was developed in Mexico as a screening tool for child developmental problems. It yields three possible results: normal, slow development or risk of delay. The modified version was elaborated using the information obtained during the validation study but its properties according to the base population are not known. The objective of this work was to establish diagnostic confirmation of developmental delay in children 16- to 59-months of age previously identified as having risk of delay through the CDE Test in primary care facilities. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in one Mexican state. CDE test was administered to 11,455 children 16- to 59-months of age from December/2013 to March/2014. The eligible population represented the 6.2% of the children (n=714) who were identified at risk of delay through the CDE Test. For inclusion in the study, a block randomization stratified by sex and age group was performed. Each participant included in the study had a diagnostic evaluation using the Battelle Development Inventory, 2 nd edition. From the 355 participants included with risk of delay, 65.9% were male and 80.2% were from rural areas; 6.5% were false positives (Total Development Quotient ˃90) and 6.8% did not have any domain with delay (Domain Developmental Quotient <80). The proportion of delay for each domain was as follows: communication 82.5%; cognitive 80.8%; social-personal 33.8%; motor 55.5%; and adaptive 41.7%. There were significant differences in the percentages of delay both by age and by domain/subdomain evaluated. In 93.2% of the participants, developmental delay was corroborated in at least one domain evaluated. Copyright © 2015 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Heme iron intake and risk of new-onset diabetes in a Mediterranean population at high risk of cardiovascular disease: an observational cohort analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Several epidemiological studies have observed an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among subjects with a higher consumption of red and processed meat. Heme iron intake has been directly associated with a higher risk of T2DM in healthy adult Chinese and U.S populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the association between heme iron intake and the incidence of T2DM in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Methods We assessed a subset of participants in the PREDIMED trial as an observational cohort, followed up for a maximum of eight years. We initially included 1073 non-diabetic subjects (57.1% women) aged 67.3 ± 6.0 years, at high cardiovascular risk. Diet was assessed at the study baseline using a validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Results During the follow-up period 131 diabetics were newly diagnosed. The risk of developing T2DM was assessed using baseline heme iron intake and proportional hazard models, first unadjusted, then adjusted for energy, and finally adjusted for dietary, anthropometric, socio-demographic and lifestyle variables. Significant direct associations with the incidence of T2DM were found for heme iron (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.66). Secondarily, we have also observed that coffee (HR:0.93, 95% CI, 0.89 to 0.98) and alcoholic beverages (HR: 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04) were also found to reduce and increase the risk of T2DM, respectively. Conclusion High dietary intake of heme iron was associated with an increased risk of developing T2DM in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Trial registration Identifier: ISRCTN35739639. PMID:24188615

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

PubMed

Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying children at risk for language impairment: screening of communication at 18 months.

PubMed

Bruce, B; Kornfält, R; Radeborg, K; Hansson, K; Nettelbladt, U

2003-09-01

To investigate the possibility of identifying children at risk for language impairment based on a new screening instrument to assess communication and language skills at 18 mo of age. At 18 mo, 58 children were assessed with a screening instrument for communication and language consisting of a professional assessment and a parents' questionnaire. Students of speech and language pathology, well trained in child language assessment, carried out the professional assessment, which was based on observations of play behaviour, interaction and expressive and receptive language skills. Of the 58 children, 43 attended a follow-up assessment of language skills at 54 mo of age. Nine children were considered to be at risk for language impairment at 18 mo and 10 children were evaluated as being at risk at 54 mo. A significant positive correlation was found between the professional evaluations at 18 mo and the language tests at 54 mo. Verbal comprehension and pretend play correlated significantly with the results on the language tests. A professional screening of communication and language at 18 mo of age is worthwhile for predicting problems in language development. The results further show that language comprehension and pretend play rather than expressive skills should be emphasized.

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

PubMed

Filippopulos, Filipp M; Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N

2017-01-01

To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

Identifying Adolescents at Highly Elevated Risk for Suicidal Behavior in the Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Berona, Johnny; Czyz, Ewa; Horwitz, Adam G.; Gipson, Polly Y.

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective: The feasibility and concurrent validity of adolescent suicide risk screening in medical emergency departments (EDs) has been documented. The objectives of this short-term prospective study of adolescents who screened positive for suicide risk in the ED were: 1) to examine adolescents' rate of suicidal behavior during the 2 months following their ED visits and compare it with reported rates for psychiatric samples; and 2) to identify possible predictors of acute risk for suicidal behavior in this at-risk sample. Method: Participants were 81 adolescents, ages 14–19 years, seeking services for psychiatric and nonpsychiatric chief complaints, who screened positive for suicide risk because of recent suicidal ideation, a suicide attempt, and/or depression plus alcohol or substance misuse. A comprehensive assessment of suicidal behavior, using the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale, was conducted at baseline and 2 month follow-up. Results: Six adolescents (7.4%) reported a suicide attempt and 15 (18.5%) engaged in some type of suicidal behavior (actual, aborted, or interrupted suicide attempt; preparatory behavior) during the 2 months following their ED visit. These rates suggest that this screen identified a high-risk sample. Furthermore, adolescents who screened positive for suicidal ideation and/or attempt plus depression and alcohol/substance misuse were most likely to engage in future suicidal behavior (38.9%). Conclusions: In this study, use of a higher screen threshold (multiple suicide risk factors) showed promise for identifying highly elevated acute risk for suicidal behavior. PMID:25746114

Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model.

PubMed

Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

2013-05-28

To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. A cross-sectional survey. Malawi The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15-49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Individual HIV status: positive or not. Findings from the Pearson χ(2) and χ(2) Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15-24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25-49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30-49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment.

Exploring demands from the perspective of employees identified as being at risk of burnout

PubMed Central

Gauche, Cecile; de Beer, Leon T.; Brink, Lizelle

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: Burnout has become an occupational health concern. However, little is known about the experiences of individuals identified as being at risk of burnout. This study aimed to address this gap by exploring employees’ experiences of well-being who were identified as burnout risks. Method: Interviews were conducted with 26 employees who agreed to participate in the study. A phenomenological approach was taken, with a case study design as the research strategy. Results: Three major themes were identified: job demands, life demands, and health concerns. It was evident that participants were experiencing demanding conditions in both their work and personal lives, indicating burnout to be a multi-domain phenomenon. Conclusions: Professionals and managers should take note of these results to assist and support employees who are identified as being at risk of burnout. PMID:28784048

Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

PubMed

Patterson, Sharon

2016-08-01

The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Exposure to toxic chemicals in the diet: is the Brazilian population at risk?

PubMed

Caldas, Eloisa Dutra; Jardim, Andreia Nunes Oliveira

2012-01-01

In Brazil, in the last 20 years, dietary risk assessments have been conducted on pesticides, mycotoxins, food additives, heavy metals (mainly mercury), environmental contaminants (mainly DDT) and acrylamide, a compound formed during food processing. The objectives of this paper were to review these studies, discuss their limitations and uncertainties and identify the most critical chemicals that may pose a health risk to Brazilian consumers. The studies have shown that the cumulative intake of organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides by high consumers of fruits and vegetables may represent a health concern (up to 169% of the ARfD), although the benefits of consuming large portions of those foods most probably overcome the risks. High consumers of maize products may also be at risk due to the presence of fumonisin (355% of the PMTDI), a mycotoxin present at high levels in Brazilian maize. The studies conducted in the Brazilian Amazon have shown that riparian fish consumers are exposed to unsafe levels of mercury. However, this is a more complex issue, as mercury levels in the region are naturally high and the health benefits of a fish-based diet are well known. Studies conducted both in Brazil and internationally on acrylamide have shown that the exposure to this genotoxic compound, mainly from the consumption of French fries and potato chips, is of health concern. Reducing the population dietary exposure to toxic chemicals is a challenge for government authorities and food producers in all countries. Management strategies aimed at decreasing exposure to the critical chemicals identified in this review involve limiting the use or eliminating highly toxic pesticides, implementing good agricultural practices to decrease maize contamination by fumonisins, educating local fish-eating communities toward a fish diet less contaminated by mercury, and changing dietary habits concerning the consumption of fried potatoes, the main processed food containing acrylamide.

The more from East-Asian, the better: risk prediction of colorectal cancer risk by GWAS-identified SNPs among Japanese.

PubMed

Abe, Makiko; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Nomura, Masatoshi; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Matsuo, Keitaro

2017-12-01

Little is known about the difference of genetic predisposition for CRC between ethnicities; however, many genetic traits common to colorectal cancer have been identified. This study investigated whether more SNPs identified in GWAS in East Asian population could improve the risk prediction of Japanese and explored possible application of genetic risk groups as an instrument of the risk communication. 558 Patients histologically verified colorectal cancer and 1116 first-visit outpatients were included for derivation study, and 547 cases and 547 controls were for replication study. Among each population, we evaluated prediction models for the risk of CRC that combined the genetic risk group based on SNPs from GWASs in European-population and a similarly developed model adding SNPs from GWASs in East Asian-population. We examined whether adding East Asian-specific SNPs would improve the discrimination. Six SNPs (rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10936599, rs16969681) from 23 SNPs by European-based GWAS and five SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279) among ten SNPs by Asian-based GWAS were selected in CRC risk prediction model. Compared with a 6-SNP-based model, an 11-SNP model including Asian GWAS-SNPs showed improved discrimination capacity in Receiver operator characteristic analysis. A model with 11 SNPs resulted in statistically significant improvement in both derivation (P = 0.0039) and replication studies (P = 0.0018) compared with six SNP model. We estimated cumulative risk of CRC by using genetic risk group based on 11 SNPs and found that the cumulative risk at age 80 is approximately 13% in the high-risk group while 6% in the low-risk group. We constructed a more efficient CRC risk prediction model with 11 SNPs including newly identified East Asian-based GWAS SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279). Risk grouping based on 11 SNPs depicted lifetime difference of CRC risk. This might be useful for

A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Schnippel, Kathryn; Sharp, Alana

2016-01-01

Objective Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB) is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context. Methods We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing. Findings Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.133), lower mobile phone access (β1 = -0.053, p < 0.001, R2 = 0.089), lower unemployment rates (β1 = -0.020, p = 0.003, R2 = 0.048), and a lower proportion of low

A Data-Driven Evaluation of the Stop TB Global Partnership Strategy of Targeting Key Populations at Greater Risk for Tuberculosis.

PubMed

McLaren, Zoë M; Schnippel, Kathryn; Sharp, Alana

2016-01-01

Identifying those infected with tuberculosis (TB) is an important component of any strategy for reducing TB transmission and population prevalence. The Stop TB Global Partnership recently launched an initiative with a focus on key populations at greater risk for TB infection or poor clinical outcomes, due to housing and working conditions, incarceration, low household income, malnutrition, co-morbidities, exposure to tobacco and silica dust, or barriers to accessing medical care. To achieve operational targets, the global health community needs effective, low cost, and large-scale strategies for identifying key populations. Using South Africa as a test case, we assess the feasibility and effectiveness of targeting active case finding to populations with TB risk factors identified from regularly collected sources of data. Our approach is applicable to all countries with TB testing and census data. It allows countries to tailor their outreach activities to the particular risk factors of greatest significance in their national context. We use a national database of TB test results to estimate municipality-level TB infection prevalence, and link it to Census data to measure population risk factors for TB including rates of urban households, informal settlements, household income, unemployment, and mobile phone ownership. To examine the relationship between TB prevalence and risk factors, we perform linear regression analysis and plot the set of population characteristics against TB prevalence and TB testing rate by municipality. We overlay lines of best fit and smoothed curves of best fit from locally weighted scatter plot smoothing. Higher TB prevalence is statistically significantly associated with more urban municipalities (slope coefficient β1 = 0.129, p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.133), lower mobile phone access (β1 = -0.053, p < 0.001, R2 = 0.089), lower unemployment rates (β1 = -0.020, p = 0.003, R2 = 0.048), and a lower proportion of low-income households (β1 = -0

Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

TITLE: Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Fengshan Liu...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Image Based Biomarker of Breast Cancer Risk: Analysis of Risk Disparity among Minority Populations 5b. GRANT NUMBER...identifying the prevalence of women with incomplete visualization of the breast . We developed a code to estimate the breast cancer risks using the

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

PubMed

Rand, Peter S; Goslin, Matthew; Gross, Mart R; Irvine, James R; Augerot, Xanthippe; McHugh, Peter A; Bugaev, Victor F

2012-01-01

Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

Global Assessment of Extinction Risk to Populations of Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka

PubMed Central

Rand, Peter S.; Goslin, Matthew; Gross, Mart R.; Irvine, James R.; Augerot, Xanthippe; McHugh, Peter A.; Bugaev, Victor F.

2012-01-01

Background Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. Methods/Principal Findings We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. Conclusions/Significance Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct. PMID:22511930

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk

PubMed Central

Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N.

2017-01-01

Objectives To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. Study design The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Results Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10–1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02–1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17–1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03–1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Conclusion Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted. PMID:29131843

Work Ability Index as tool to identify workers at risk of premature work exit.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; Heymans, Martijn W; Twisk, Jos W R; van der Klink, Jac J L; Groothoff, Johan W; van Rhenen, Willem

2014-12-01

To investigate the Work Ability Index (WAI) as tool for identifying workers at risk of premature work exit in terms of disability pension, unemployment, or early retirement. Prospective cohort study of 11,537 male construction workers (mean age 45.5 years), who completed the WAI at baseline and reported their work status (employed, unemployed, disability pension, or retired) after mean 2.3 years of follow-up. Associations between WAI scores and work status were investigated by multinomial logistic regression analysis. The ability of the WAI to discriminate between workers at high and low risk of premature work exit was analyzed by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve. 9,530 (83 %) construction workers had complete data for analysis. At follow-up, 336 (4 %) workers reported disability pension, 125 (1 %) unemployment, and 255 (3 %) retirement. WAI scores were prospectively associated with the risk of disability pension at follow-up, but not with the risk of unemployment and early retirement. The WAI showed fair discrimination to identify workers at risk of disability pension [AUC = 0.74; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77]. The discriminative ability decreased with age from AUC = 0.78 in workers aged 30-39 years to AUC = 0.69 in workers ≥50 years of age. Discrimination failed for unemployment (AUC = 0.51; 95 % CI 0.47-0.55) and early retirement (AUC = 0.58; 95 % CI 0.53-0.61). The WAI can be used to identify construction workers <50 years of age at increased risk of disability pension and invite them for preventive interventions.

Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

PubMed

Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

2017-11-14

Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and substantial proportions had under-utilisation of antiplatelet therapy, anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, and were physically inactive. This population demonstrated substantial potential to reduce cardiovascular and renal morbidity and mortality and health care costs through more effective management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA USED FOR IDENTIFYING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Due to unique social and demographic characteristics, various segments of the population may experience exposures different from those of the general population, which, in many cases, may be greater. When risk assessments do not characterize subsets of the general population, the populations that may experience the greatest risk remain unidentified. When such populations are not identified, the social and demographic data relevant to these populations is not considered when preparing exposure estimates, which can underestimate exposure and risk estimates for at-risk populations. Thus, it is necessary for risk or exposure assessors characterizing a diverse population, to first identify and then enumerate certain groups within the general population who are at risk for greater contaminant exposures. The document entitled Sociodemographic Data Used for Identifying Potentially Highly Exposed Populations (also referred to as the Highly Exposed Populations document), assists assessors in identifying and enumerating potentially highly exposed populations. This document presents data relating to factors which potentially impact an individual or group's exposure to environmental contaminants based on activity patterns (how time is spent), microenvironments (locations where time is spent), and other socio-demographic data such as age, gender, race and economic status. Populations potentially more exposed to various chemicals of concern, relative to the general population

Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

PubMed

Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

2016-07-01

To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Older Women: A Population at Risk for Mental Health Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wisniewski, Wendy; Cohen, Donna

The expanding population of older women relative to older men or the "feminization of aging" is a significant demographic trend with important implications for the future. Older women are at risk for extended years of widowhood, living alone, institutionalization, poverty, and mental health problems. Although the dementias of late life appear to…

Identifying Students at Risk: An Examination of Computer-Adaptive Measures and Latent Class Growth Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller-Margulis, Milena; McQuillin, Samuel D.; Castañeda, Juan Javier; Ochs, Sarah; Jones, John H.

2018-01-01

Multitiered systems of support depend on screening technology to identify students at risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of a computer-adaptive test and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to identify students at risk in reading with focus on the use of this methodology to characterize student performance in screening.…

Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

2008-07-01

Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate formore » planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and

Using a single binge drinking question to identify Russian women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy.

PubMed

Balachova, Tatiana; Sobell, Linda Carter; Agrawal, Sangeeta; Isurina, Galina; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Bohora, Som

2015-07-01

Low rates of contraception and at-risk drinking place many Russian women at risk of an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP). The only realistic way to determine when women are at risk of AEP is by self-reports. A U.S. study found that a single binge-drinking question (SBD) effectively identified nearly all women whose drinking placed them at risk of AEP. The present study replicated the U.S. Participants were 689 non-pregnant Russian women of childbearing age who were at AEP risk. Their answers to SBD, "During the previous three months, how often did you have four or more drinks on one occasion", were compared with their reports of binge drinking on a 90-day Timeline Followback (TLFB) calendar. The SBD identified 99% of at-risk Russian women as binge drinkers, replicating U.S. Only 8% of the women were identified at-risk using a second AEP criterion of ≥8 drinks on average per week. Although Russian women did not report heavy weekly drinking and two-thirds did not meet AUDIT criteria for problem drinking, when they did drink, 40% of the time it was binge drinking. Almost all Russian women who were at risk of an AEP were identified by a single binge-drinking question. Results from this study suggest that Russian health care practitioners can use SBD to successfully screen women for AEP risk. SBD identified 99% of Russian women who were at AEP risk. Consequently, it is recommended that SBD be incorporated into routine health care screenings at OB/GYN clinic visits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

Population at risk: using areal interpolation and Twitter messages to create population models for burglaries and robberies

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Population at risk of crime varies due to the characteristics of a population as well as the crime generator and attractor places where crime is located. This establishes different crime opportunities for different crimes. However, there are very few efforts of modeling structures that derive spatiotemporal population models to allow accurate assessment of population exposure to crime. This study develops population models to depict the spatial distribution of people who have a heightened crime risk for burglaries and robberies. The data used in the study include: Census data as source data for the existing population, Twitter geo-located data, and locations of schools as ancillary data to redistribute the source data more accurately in the space, and finally gridded population and crime data to evaluate the derived population models. To create the models, a density-weighted areal interpolation technique was used that disaggregates the source data in smaller spatial units considering the spatial distribution of the ancillary data. The models were evaluated with validation data that assess the interpolation error and spatial statistics that examine their relationship with the crime types. Our approach derived population models of a finer resolution that can assist in more precise spatial crime analyses and also provide accurate information about crime rates to the public. PMID:29887766

Strategies to predict rheumatoid arthritis development in at-risk populations

PubMed Central

van der Helm-van Mil, Annette H.

2016-01-01

The development of RA is conceived as a multiple hit process and the more hits that are acquired, the greater the risk of developing clinically apparent RA. Several at-risk phases have been described, including the presence of genetic and environmental factors, RA-related autoantibodies and biomarkers and symptoms. Intervention in these preclinical phases may be more effective compared with intervention in the clinical phase. One prerequisite for preventive strategies is the ability to estimate an individual’s risk adequately. This review evaluates the ability to predict the risk of RA in the various preclinical stages. Present data suggest that a combination of genetic and environmental factors is helpful to identify persons at high risk of RA among first-degree relatives. Furthermore, a combination of symptoms, antibody characteristics and environmental factors has been shown to be relevant for risk prediction in seropositive arthralgia patients. Large prospective studies are needed to validate and improve risk prediction in preclinical disease stages. PMID:25096602

Modeling Retention at a Large Public University: Can At-Risk Students Be Identified Early Enough to Treat?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singell, Larry D.; Waddell, Glen R.

2010-01-01

We examine the extent to which readily available data at a large public university can be used to a priori identify at-risk students who may benefit from targeted retention efforts. Although it is possible to identify such students, there remains an inevitable tradeoff in any resource allocation between not treating the students who are likely to…

Comparing listeriosis risks in at-risk populations using a user-friendly quantitative microbial risk assessment tool and epidemiological data.

PubMed

Falk, L E; Fader, K A; Cui, D S; Totton, S C; Fazil, A M; Lammerding, A M; Smith, B A

2016-10-01

Although infection by the pathogenic bacterium Listeria monocytogenes is relatively rare, consequences can be severe, with a high case-fatality rate in vulnerable populations. A quantitative, probabilistic risk assessment tool was developed to compare estimates of the number of invasive listeriosis cases in vulnerable Canadian subpopulations given consumption of contaminated ready-to-eat delicatessen meats and hot dogs, under various user-defined scenarios. The model incorporates variability and uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulation. Processes considered within the model include cross-contamination, growth, risk factor prevalence, subpopulation susceptibilities, and thermal inactivation. Hypothetical contamination events were simulated. Results demonstrated varying risk depending on the consumer risk factors and implicated product (turkey delicatessen meat without growth inhibitors ranked highest for this scenario). The majority (80%) of listeriosis cases were predicted in at-risk subpopulations comprising only 20% of the total Canadian population, with the greatest number of predicted cases in the subpopulation with dialysis and/or liver disease. This tool can be used to simulate conditions and outcomes under different scenarios, such as a contamination event and/or outbreak, to inform public health interventions.

Genetic risk variants for metabolic traits in Arab populations.

PubMed

Hebbar, Prashantha; Elkum, Naser; Alkayal, Fadi; John, Sumi Elsa; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse; Alsmadi, Osama

2017-01-20

Despite a high prevalence of metabolic trait related diseases in Arabian Peninsula, there is a lack of convincingly identified genetic determinants for metabolic traits in this population. Arab populations are underrepresented in global genome-wide association studies. We genotyped 1965 unrelated Arab individuals from Kuwait using Cardio-MetaboChip, and tested SNP associations with 13 metabolic traits. Models based on recessive mode of inheritance identified Chr15:40531386-rs12440118/ZNF106/W->R as a risk variant associated with glycated-hemoglobin at close to 'genome-wide significant' p-value and five other risk variants 'nominally' associated (p-value ≤ 5.45E-07) with fasting plasma glucose (rs7144734/[OTX2-AS1,RPL3P3]) and triglyceride (rs17501809/PLGRKT; rs11143005/LOC105376072; rs900543/[THSD4,NR2E3]; and Chr12:101494770/IGF1). Furthermore, we identified 33 associations (30 SNPs with 12 traits) with 'suggestive' evidence of association (p-value < 1.0E-05); 20 of these operate under recessive mode of inheritance. Two of these 'suggestive' associations (rs1800775-CETP/HDL; and rs9326246-BUD13/TGL) showed evidence at genome-wide significance in previous studies on Euro-centric populations. Involvement of many of the identified loci in mediating metabolic traits was supported by literature evidences. The identified loci participate in critical metabolic pathways (such as Ceramide signaling, and Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase/Extracellular Signal Regulated Kinase signaling). Data from Genotype-Tissue Expression database affirmed that 7 of the identified variants differentially regulate the up/downstream genes that mediate metabolic traits.

Estimates of Commercial Population at High Risk for Cardiovascular Events: Impact of Aggressive Cholesterol Reduction

PubMed Central

Fitch, Kathryn; Goldberg, Sara W.; Iwasaki, Kosuke; Pyenson, Bruce S.; Kuznik, Andreas; Solomon, Henry A.

2009-01-01

Objectives To model the financial and health outcomes impact of intensive statin therapy compared with usual care in a high-risk working-age population (actively employed, commercially insured health plan members and their adult dependents). The target population consists of working-age people who are considered high-risk for cardiovascular disease events because of a history of coronary heart disease. Study Design Three-year event forecast for a sample population generated from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Methods Using Framingham risk scoring system, the probability of myocardial infarction or stroke events was calculated for a representative sample population, ages 35 to 69 years, of people at high risk for cardiovascular disease, with a history of coronary heart disease. The probability of events for each individual was used to project the number of events expected to be generated for this population. Reductions in cardiovascular and stroke events reported in clinical trials with aggressive statin therapy were applied to these cohorts. We used medical claims data to model the cohorts' event costs. All results are adjusted to reflect the demographics of a typical working-age population. Results The high-risk cohort (those with coronary heart disease) comprises 4% of the 35- to 69-year-old commercially insured population but generates 22% of the risk for coronary heart disease and stroke. Reduced event rates associated with intensive statin therapy yielded a $58 mean medical cost reduction per treated person per month; a typical payer cost for a 30-day supply of intensive statin therapy is approximately $57. Conclusions Aggressive low-density lipoprotein cholesterol–lowering therapy for working-age people at high risk for cardiovascular events and with a history of heart disease appears to have a significant potential to reduce the rate of clinical events and is cost-neutral for payers. PMID:25126293

Effect of Exercise Training on Cardiac Biomarkers in At-Risk Populations: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Glenney, Susan Sullivan; Brockemer, Derrick Paul; Ng, Andy C; Smolewski, Michael A; Smolgovskiy, Vladimir M; Lepley, Adam S

2017-12-01

Studies have demonstrated beneficial effects of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers for healthy individuals; however, a comprehensive review regarding the effect of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers in at-risk populations is lacking. A literature search was performed to identify studies meeting the following criteria: randomized controlled study, participants with pathology/activity limitations, biomarker outcome (total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, C-reactive protein, insulin, triglycerides, or glucose), and exercise intervention. Means and standard deviations from each biomarker were used to calculate standardized Cohen's d effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals. In total, 37 articles were included. The majority (44/57; 77%) of data points demonstrated moderate to strong effects for the reduction in total cholesterol, triglycerides, and low-density lipoprotein, and elevation in high-density lipoprotein following exercise. The majority of data points demonstrated strong effects for reductions in blood glucose (24/30; 80%) and insulin (23/24; 96%) levels following exercise intervention. Evidence is heterogeneous regarding the influence of exercise on cardiovascular disease biomarkers in at-risk patients, which does not allow a definitive conclusion. Favorable effects include reductions in triglycerides, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, glucose, and insulin, and elevation in high-density lipoprotein following exercise intervention. The strongest evidence indicates that exercise is favorable for the reduction in glucose and cholesterol levels among obese patients, and reduction of insulin regardless of population.

Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

2012-01-01

This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

Screening tools to identify patients with complex health needs at risk of high use of health care services: A scoping review.

PubMed

Marcoux, Valérie; Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Dufour, Isabelle; Hudon, Catherine

2017-01-01

Many people with chronic conditions have complex health needs often due to multiple chronic conditions, psychiatric comorbidities, psychosocial issues, or a combination of these factors. They are at high risk of frequent use of healthcare services. To offer these patients interventions adapted to their needs, it is crucial to be able to identify them early. The aim of this study was to find all existing screening tools that identify patients with complex health needs at risk of frequent use of healthcare services, and to highlight their principal characteristics. Our purpose was to find a short, valid screening tool to identify adult patients of all ages. A scoping review was performed on articles published between 1985 and July 2016, retrieved through a comprehensive search of the Scopus and CINAHL databases, following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley (2005), and completed by Levac et al. (2010). Of the 3,818 articles identified, 30 were included, presenting 14 different screening tools. Seven tools were self-reported. Five targeted adult patients, and nine geriatric patients. Two tools were designed for specific populations. Four can be completed in 15 minutes or less. Most screening tools target elderly persons. The INTERMED self-assessment (IM-SA) targets adults of all ages and can be completed in less than 15 minutes. Future research could evaluate its usefulness as a screening tool for identifying patients with complex needs at risk of becoming high users of healthcare services.

Identifying HIV most-at-risk groups in Malawi for targeted interventions. A classification tree model

PubMed Central

Emina, Jacques B O; Madise, Nyovani; Kuepie, Mathias; Zulu, Eliya M; Ye, Yazoume

2013-01-01

Objectives To identify HIV-socioeconomic predictors as well as the most-at-risk groups of women in Malawi. Design A cross-sectional survey. Setting Malawi Participants The study used a sample of 6395 women aged 15–49 years from the 2010 Malawi Health and Demographic Surveys. Interventions N/A Primary and secondary outcome measures Individual HIV status: positive or not. Results Findings from the Pearson χ2 and χ2 Automatic Interaction Detector analyses revealed that marital status is the most significant predictor of HIV. Women who are no longer in union and living in the highest wealth quintiles households constitute the most-at-risk group, whereas the less-at-risk group includes young women (15–24) never married or in union and living in rural areas. Conclusions In the light of these findings, this study recommends: (1) that the design and implementation of targeted interventions should consider the magnitude of HIV prevalence and demographic size of most-at-risk groups. Preventive interventions should prioritise couples and never married people aged 25–49 years and living in rural areas because this group accounts for 49% of the study population and 40% of women living with HIV in Malawi; (2) with reference to treatment and care, higher priority must be given to promoting HIV test, monitoring and evaluation of equity in access to treatment among women in union disruption and never married or women in union aged 30–49 years and living in urban areas; (3) community health workers, households-based campaign, reproductive-health services and reproductive-health courses at school could be used as canons to achieve universal prevention strategy, testing, counselling and treatment. PMID:23793677

Plasma triglyceride determination can identify increased risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes: a hypothesis.

PubMed

Armato, J; Ruby, R; Reaven, G

2015-04-01

To evaluate the ability of plasma triglyceride (TG) measurements to identify statin-treated persons at accentuated risk of statin-induced type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The experimental population consisted of nondiabetic, statin-treated patients (n = 469), classified as being at high risk for T2DM, subdivided on the basis of a plasma TG concentration of 1.7 mmol/L. Comparisons were made of demographic characteristics, concentrations of fasting glucose, insulin, HbA1c, and hs-CRP, oral glucose tolerance tests, estimates of insulin action and secretion, and lipid/lipoprotein profiles. Despite similar fasting glucose and HbA1c concentrations, patients with elevated TG concentrations displayed markers of increased risk of T2DM (insulin resistance and compensatory hyperinsulinemia), more adverse lipid/lipoprotein profiles, and increased prevalence of abnormal hs-CRP values. These findings demonstrate that plasma TG concentrations ≥ 1.7 mmol/L identified a subset of individuals at enhanced risk of developing statin-induced diabetes within a population classified prior to statin treatment as being at high risk of T2DM. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping populations at risk: improving spatial demographic data for infectious disease modeling and metric derivation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets

Intervention Strategies for Populations at Risk: A Behavioral Approach to Prevention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartman, Lorne M.; Poser, Ernest G.

This report presents a preliminary series of investigations dealing with the detection of populations at psychological risk. The investigation relies primarily on the variable of vulnerability, as defined empirically by self-esteem, psychological discomfort, and social skills. Two vulnerability groups, high (HV) and low(LV) are compared on their…

Can we identify patients at risk of life-threatening allergic reactions to food?

PubMed

Turner, P J; Baumert, J L; Beyer, K; Boyle, R J; Chan, C-H; Clark, A T; Crevel, R W R; DunnGalvin, A; Fernández-Rivas, M; Gowland, M H; Grabenhenrich, L; Hardy, S; Houben, G F; O'B Hourihane, J; Muraro, A; Poulsen, L K; Pyrz, K; Remington, B C; Schnadt, S; van Ree, R; Venter, C; Worm, M; Mills, E N C; Roberts, G; Ballmer-Weber, B K

2016-09-01

Anaphylaxis has been defined as a 'severe, life-threatening generalized or systemic hypersensitivity reaction'. However, data indicate that the vast majority of food-triggered anaphylactic reactions are not life-threatening. Nonetheless, severe life-threatening reactions do occur and are unpredictable. We discuss the concepts surrounding perceptions of severe, life-threatening allergic reactions to food by different stakeholders, with particular reference to the inclusion of clinical severity as a factor in allergy and allergen risk management. We review the evidence regarding factors that might be used to identify those at most risk of severe allergic reactions to food, and the consequences of misinformation in this regard. For example, a significant proportion of food-allergic children also have asthma, yet almost none will experience a fatal food-allergic reaction; asthma is not, in itself, a strong predictor for fatal anaphylaxis. The relationship between dose of allergen exposure and symptom severity is unclear. While dose appears to be a risk factor in at least a subgroup of patients, studies report that individuals with prior anaphylaxis do not have a lower eliciting dose than those reporting previous mild reactions. It is therefore important to consider severity and sensitivity as separate factors, as a highly sensitive individual will not necessarily experience severe symptoms during an allergic reaction. We identify the knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to improve our ability to better identify those most at risk of severe food-induced allergic reactions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Association analyses identify 38 susceptibility loci for inflammatory bowel disease and highlight shared genetic risk across populations.

PubMed

Liu, Jimmy Z; van Sommeren, Suzanne; Huang, Hailiang; Ng, Siew C; Alberts, Rudi; Takahashi, Atsushi; Ripke, Stephan; Lee, James C; Jostins, Luke; Shah, Tejas; Abedian, Shifteh; Cheon, Jae Hee; Cho, Judy; Dayani, Naser E; Franke, Lude; Fuyuno, Yuta; Hart, Ailsa; Juyal, Ramesh C; Juyal, Garima; Kim, Won Ho; Morris, Andrew P; Poustchi, Hossein; Newman, William G; Midha, Vandana; Orchard, Timothy R; Vahedi, Homayon; Sood, Ajit; Sung, Joseph Y; Malekzadeh, Reza; Westra, Harm-Jan; Yamazaki, Keiko; Yang, Suk-Kyun; Barrett, Jeffrey C; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z; Parkes, Miles; Bk, Thelma; Daly, Mark J; Kubo, Michiaki; Anderson, Carl A; Weersma, Rinse K

2015-09-01

Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease are the two main forms of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Here we report the first trans-ancestry association study of IBD, with genome-wide or Immunochip genotype data from an extended cohort of 86,640 European individuals and Immunochip data from 9,846 individuals of East Asian, Indian or Iranian descent. We implicate 38 loci in IBD risk for the first time. For the majority of the IBD risk loci, the direction and magnitude of effect are consistent in European and non-European cohorts. Nevertheless, we observe genetic heterogeneity between divergent populations at several established risk loci driven by differences in allele frequency (NOD2) or effect size (TNFSF15 and ATG16L1) or a combination of these factors (IL23R and IRGM). Our results provide biological insights into the pathogenesis of IBD and demonstrate the usefulness of trans-ancestry association studies for mapping loci associated with complex diseases and understanding genetic architecture across diverse populations.

Association analyses identify 38 susceptibility loci for inflammatory bowel disease and highlight shared genetic risk across populations

PubMed Central

Huang, Hailiang; Ng, Siew C; Alberts, Rudi; Takahashi, Atsushi; Ripke, Stephan; Lee, James C; Jostins, Luke; Shah, Tejas; Abedian, Shifteh; Cheon, Jae Hee; Cho, Judy; Dayani, Naser E; Franke, Lude; Fuyuno, Yuta; Hart, Ailsa; Juyal, Ramesh C; Juyal, Garima; Kim, Won Ho; Morris, Andrew P; Poustchi, Hossein; Newman, William G; Midha, Vandana; Orchard, Timothy R; Vahedi, Homayon; Sood, Ajit; Sung, Joseph Y; Malekzadeh, Reza; Westra, Harm-Jan; Yamazaki, Keiko; Yang, Suk-Kyun; Barrett, Jeffrey C; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z; Parkes, Miles; BK, Thelma; Daly, Mark J; Kubo, Michiaki; Anderson, Carl A; Weersma, Rinse K

2016-01-01

Ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease are the two main forms of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Here, we report the first trans-ethnic association study of IBD, with genome-wide or Immunochip genotype data from an extended cohort of 86,640 European individuals and Immunochip data from 9,846 individuals of East-Asian, Indian or Iranian descent. We implicate 38 loci in IBD risk for the first time. For the majority of IBD risk loci, the direction and magnitude of effect is consistent in European and non-European cohorts. Nevertheless, we observe genetic heterogeneity between divergent populations at several established risk loci driven by a combination of differences in allele frequencies (NOD2), effect sizes (TNFSF15, ATG16L1) or a combination of both (IL23R, IRGM). Our results provide biological insights into the pathogenesis of IBD, and demonstrate the utility of trans-ethnic association studies for mapping complex disease loci and understanding genetic architecture across diverse populations. PMID:26192919

Glaucoma screening during regular optician visits: can the population at risk of developing glaucoma be reached?

PubMed Central

Stoutenbeek, R; Jansonius, N M

2006-01-01

Aim To determine the percentage of the population at risk of developing glaucoma, which can potentially be reached by conducting glaucoma screening during regular optician visits. Methods 1200 inhabitants aged >40 years were randomly selected from Dutch community population databases. A questionnaire was mailed to these inhabitants with questions on their latest optician visit and risk factors for glaucoma. A second questionnaire was sent to their opticians, who were asked about their willingness to conduct an additional glaucoma screening programme in the future. Results The questionnaire was returned by 959 of 1200 inhabitants and 37 of 50 opticians. The percentage of inhabitants who visited an optician during a 5‐year period was 83% (95% confidence interval (CI) 80% to 85%). This percentage was adjusted for the presence of risk factors for glaucoma to obtain the percentage of the population at risk of developing glaucoma. The percentage of opticians willing to cooperate in a glaucoma screening programme extended beyond a non‐contact tonometry measurement alone was 91% (95% CI 77% to 98%). Conclusion By conducting glaucoma screening during regular optician visits, a large section of the population at risk of developing glaucoma can be reached. PMID:16854829

Glaucoma screening during regular optician visits: can the population at risk of developing glaucoma be reached?

PubMed

Stoutenbeek, R; Jansonius, N M

2006-10-01

To determine the percentage of the population at risk of developing glaucoma, which can potentially be reached by conducting glaucoma screening during regular optician visits. 1,200 inhabitants aged >40 years were randomly selected from Dutch community population databases. A questionnaire was mailed to these inhabitants with questions on their latest optician visit and risk factors for glaucoma. A second questionnaire was sent to their opticians, who were asked about their willingness to conduct an additional glaucoma screening programme in the future. The questionnaire was returned by 959 of 1,200 inhabitants and 37 of 50 opticians. The percentage of inhabitants who visited an optician during a 5-year period was 83% (95% confidence interval (CI) 80% to 85%). This percentage was adjusted for the presence of risk factors for glaucoma to obtain the percentage of the population at risk of developing glaucoma. The percentage of opticians willing to cooperate in a glaucoma screening programme extended beyond a non-contact tonometry measurement alone was 91% (95% CI 77% to 98%). By conducting glaucoma screening during regular optician visits, a large section of the population at risk of developing glaucoma can be reached.

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review.

PubMed

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, S V; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-12-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction 'within' populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to 'populations' that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others.

Genetic risk variants for metabolic traits in Arab populations

PubMed Central

Hebbar, Prashantha; Elkum, Naser; Alkayal, Fadi; John, Sumi Elsa; Thanaraj, Thangavel Alphonse; Alsmadi, Osama

2017-01-01

Despite a high prevalence of metabolic trait related diseases in Arabian Peninsula, there is a lack of convincingly identified genetic determinants for metabolic traits in this population. Arab populations are underrepresented in global genome-wide association studies. We genotyped 1965 unrelated Arab individuals from Kuwait using Cardio-MetaboChip, and tested SNP associations with 13 metabolic traits. Models based on recessive mode of inheritance identified Chr15:40531386-rs12440118/ZNF106/W->R as a risk variant associated with glycated-hemoglobin at close to ‘genome-wide significant’ p-value and five other risk variants ‘nominally’ associated (p-value ≤ 5.45E-07) with fasting plasma glucose (rs7144734/[OTX2-AS1,RPL3P3]) and triglyceride (rs17501809/PLGRKT; rs11143005/LOC105376072; rs900543/[THSD4,NR2E3]; and Chr12:101494770/IGF1). Furthermore, we identified 33 associations (30 SNPs with 12 traits) with ‘suggestive’ evidence of association (p-value < 1.0E-05); 20 of these operate under recessive mode of inheritance. Two of these ‘suggestive’ associations (rs1800775-CETP/HDL; and rs9326246-BUD13/TGL) showed evidence at genome-wide significance in previous studies on Euro-centric populations. Involvement of many of the identified loci in mediating metabolic traits was supported by literature evidences. The identified loci participate in critical metabolic pathways (such as Ceramide signaling, and Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase/Extracellular Signal Regulated Kinase signaling). Data from Genotype-Tissue Expression database affirmed that 7 of the identified variants differentially regulate the up/downstream genes that mediate metabolic traits. PMID:28106113

Physical and Mental Health of Transgender Older Adults: An At-Risk and Underserved Population

PubMed Central

Fredriksen-Goldsen, Karen I.

2014-01-01

Purpose: This study is one of the first to examine the physical and mental health of transgender older adults and to identify modifiable factors that account for health risks in this underserved population. Design and Methods: Utilizing data from a cross-sectional survey of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender older adults aged 50 and older (N = 2,560), we assessed direct and indirect effects of gender identity on 4 health outcomes (physical health, disability, depressive symptomatology, and perceived stress) based on a resilience conceptual framework. Results: Transgender older adults were at significantly higher risk of poor physical health, disability, depressive symptomatology, and perceived stress compared with nontransgender participants. We found significant indirect effects of gender identity on the health outcomes via fear of accessing health services, lack of physical activity, internalized stigma, victimization, and lack of social support; other mediators included obesity for physical health and disability, identity concealment for perceived stress, and community belonging for depressive symptomatology and perceived stress. Further analyses revealed that risk factors (victimization and stigma) explained the highest proportion of the total effect of gender identity on health outcomes. Implications: The study identifies important modifiable factors (stigma, victimization, health-related behaviors, and social support) associated with health among transgender older adults. Reducing stigma and victimization and including gender identity in nondiscrimination and hate crime statutes are important steps to reduce health risks. Attention to bolstering individual and community-level social support must be considered when developing tailored interventions to address transgender older adults’ distinct health and aging needs. PMID:23535500

Screening tools to identify patients with complex health needs at risk of high use of health care services: A scoping review

PubMed Central

Chouinard, Maud-Christine; Diadiou, Fatoumata; Dufour, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Background Many people with chronic conditions have complex health needs often due to multiple chronic conditions, psychiatric comorbidities, psychosocial issues, or a combination of these factors. They are at high risk of frequent use of healthcare services. To offer these patients interventions adapted to their needs, it is crucial to be able to identify them early. Objective The aim of this study was to find all existing screening tools that identify patients with complex health needs at risk of frequent use of healthcare services, and to highlight their principal characteristics. Our purpose was to find a short, valid screening tool to identify adult patients of all ages. Methods A scoping review was performed on articles published between 1985 and July 2016, retrieved through a comprehensive search of the Scopus and CINAHL databases, following the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O’Malley (2005), and completed by Levac et al. (2010). Results Of the 3,818 articles identified, 30 were included, presenting 14 different screening tools. Seven tools were self-reported. Five targeted adult patients, and nine geriatric patients. Two tools were designed for specific populations. Four can be completed in 15 minutes or less. Most screening tools target elderly persons. The INTERMED self-assessment (IM-SA) targets adults of all ages and can be completed in less than 15 minutes. Conclusion Future research could evaluate its usefulness as a screening tool for identifying patients with complex needs at risk of becoming high users of healthcare services. PMID:29190658

A nationwide population-based cohort study to identify the correlation between heart failure and the subsequent risk of herpes zoster.

PubMed

Wu, Ping-Hsun; Lin, Yi-Ting; Lin, Chun-Yi; Huang, Ming-Yii; Chang, Wei-Chiao; Chang, Wei-Pin

2015-01-16

The association between heart failure (HF) and herpes zoster has rarely been studied. We investigated the hypothesis that HF may increase the risk of herpes zoster in Taiwan using a nationwide Taiwanese population-based claims database. Our study cohort consisted of patients who received a diagnosis of HF in 2001 ~ 2009 (N = 4785). For a comparison cohort, three age- and gender-matched control patients for every patient in the study cohort were selected using random sampling (N = 14,355). All subjects were tracked for 1 year from the date of cohort entry to identify whether or not they had developed herpes zoster. Cox proportional-hazard regressions were performed to evaluate 1-year herpes zoster-free survival rates. The main finding of this study was that patients with HF seemed to be at an increased risk of developing herpes zoster. Of the total patients, 211 patients developed herpes zoster during the 1-year follow-up period, among whom 83 were HF patients and 128 were in the comparison cohort. The adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of herpes zoster in patients with HF was higher (AHR: 2.07; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54 ~ 2.78; p < 0.001) than that of the controls during the 1-year follow-up. Our study also investigated whether HF is a gender-dependent risk factor for herpes zoster. We found that male patients with HF had an increased risk of developing herpes zoster (AHR: 2.30 95% CI: 1.51 ~ 3.50; p < 0.001). The findings of our population-based study suggest that patients with HF may have an increased risk of herpes zoster. These health associations should be taken into consideration, and further studies should focused on the cost-effectiveness of the herpes zoster vaccine should be designed for HF patients.

Perceptions regarding genetic testing in populations at risk for nephropathy.

PubMed

Freedman, Barry I; Fletcher, Alison J; Sanghani, Vivek R; Spainhour, Mitzie; Graham, Angelina W; Russell, Gregory B; Cooke Bailey, Jessica N; Iltis, Ana S; King, Nancy M P

2013-01-01

Population ancestry-based differences exist in genetic risk for many kidney diseases. Substantial debate remains regarding returning genetic test results to participants. African-Americans (AAs) and European-Americans (EAs) at risk for end-stage kidney disease were queried for views on the value and use of genetic testing in research. A standardized survey regarding attitudes toward genetic testing was administered to 130 individuals (64 AA, 66 EA) with first-degree relatives on dialysis. Fisher's exact test was used to assess differences in participant attitudes between population groups. Mean (SD) age of surveyed AAs and EAs was 45.5 (12.8) and 50.5 (14.4) years, respectively (p = 0.04), with similar familial relationships (p = 0.22). AAs and EAs wished to know their test results if risk could be: (1) reduced by diet or exercise (100 and 98%, p = 0.99); (2) reduced by medical treatment (100 and 98%, p = 0.99), or (3) if no treatments were available (90 and 82%, p = 0.21). If informed they lacked a disease susceptibility variant, 87% of AAs and 88% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform family members (p = 0.84). If informed they had a disease susceptibility variant, 92% of AAs and 89% of EAs would be extremely or pretty likely to inform their family (p = 0.43). Attitudes toward obtaining and using genetic test results for disease in research contexts were similar in AAs and EAs at risk for end-stage kidney disease. A substantial majority would want information regardless of available treatments and would share the information with the family. These results have important implications for patient care, study design and the informed consent process. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Identifying HIV care enrollees at-risk for cannabis use disorder.

PubMed

Hartzler, Bryan; Carlini, Beatriz H; Newville, Howard; Crane, Heidi M; Eron, Joseph J; Geng, Elvin H; Mathews, W Christopher; Mayer, Kenneth H; Moore, Richard D; Mugavero, Michael J; Napravnik, Sonia; Rodriguez, Benigno; Donovan, Dennis M

2017-07-01

Increased scientific attention given to cannabis in the United States has particular relevance for its domestic HIV care population, given that evidence exists for both cannabis as a therapeutic agent and cannabis use disorder (CUD) as a barrier to antiretroviral medication adherence. It is critical to identify relative risk for CUD among demographic subgroups of HIV patients, as this will inform detection and intervention efforts. A Center For AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort (N = 10,652) of HIV-positive adults linked to care at seven United State sites was examined for this purpose. Based on a patient-report instrument with validated diagnostic threshold for CUD, the prevalence of recent cannabis use and corresponding conditional probabilities for CUD were calculated for the aggregate sample and demographic subgroups. Generalized estimating equations then tested models directly examining patient demographic indices as predictors of CUD, while controlling for history and geography. Conditional probability of CUD among cannabis-using patients was 49%, with the highest conditional probabilities among demographic subgroups of young adults and those with non-specified sexual orientation (67-69%) and the lowest conditional probability among females and those 50+ years of age (42% apiece). Similarly, youthful age and male gender emerged as robust multivariate model predictors of CUD. In the context of increasingly lenient policies for use of cannabis as a therapeutic agent for chronic conditions like HIV/AIDS, current study findings offer needed direction in terms of specifying targeted patient groups in HIV care on whom resources for enhanced surveillance and intervention efforts will be most impactful.

[Cardiovascular risk factors in the population at risk of poverty and social exclusión].

PubMed

Álvarez-Fernández, Carlos; Vaquero-Abellán, Manuel; Ruíz-Gandara, África; Romero-Saldaña, Manuel; Álvarez-López, Carlos

2017-03-01

Detect if there are differences in prevalence, distribution of cardiovascular risk factors and risk according to REGICOR and SCORE's function; between people belonging to different occupational classes and population at risk of social exclusion. Cross-sectional. SITE: Occupational health unit of the City Hall of Córdoba. Sample availability of 628 people, excluding 59 by age or incomplete data. The group of municipal workers was obtained randomly while all contracted exclusion risk was taken. No preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic actions that modify the course of the previous situation of workers were applied. Smoke, glucose, lipids, blood pressure and BMI as main variables. T-student were used for comparison of means and percentages for Chi 2 . Statistical significance attached to an alpha error <5% and confidence interval with a 95% security. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were employed to find out what explanatory variables predict group membership of workers at risk of exclusion. Smoking (95% CI: -.224;-.443), hypercholesterolemia (95% CI: -.127;-.320), obesity (95% CI: -.005;-0.214), diabetes (95% CI: -.060;-.211) and cardiovascular risk were higher in men at risk of exclusion. In women there were differences in the same variables except smoking (P=.053). The existence of inequalities in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is checked. In a context of social crisis, health promotion and primary prevention programs directing to the most vulnerable, they are needed to mit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

A literature review of the cardiovascular risk-assessment tools: applicability among Asian population.

PubMed

Liau, Siow Yen; Mohamed Izham, M I; Hassali, M A; Shafie, A A

2010-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases, the main causes of hospitalisations and death globally, have put an enormous economic burden on the healthcare system. Several risk factors are associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events. At the heart of efficient prevention of cardiovascular disease is the concept of risk assessment. This paper aims to review the available cardiovascular risk-assessment tools and its applicability in predicting cardiovascular risk among Asian populations. A systematic search was performed using keywords as MeSH and Boolean terms. A total of 25 risk-assessment tools were identified. Of these, only two risk-assessment tools (8%) were derived from an Asian population. These risk-assessment tools differ in various ways, including characteristics of the derivation sample, type of study, time frame of follow-up, end points, statistical analysis and risk factors included. Very few cardiovascular risk-assessment tools were developed in Asian populations. In order to accurately predict the cardiovascular risk of our population, there is a need to develop a risk-assessment tool based on local epidemiological data.

First Steps to School Readiness: South Carolina's Response to At-Risk Early Childhood Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buford, Rhonda; Stegelin, Dolores A.

2003-01-01

Describes South Carolina's new state early childhood program, First Steps to School Readiness. Includes a profile of the state's at-risk child population, noting poverty and education risk indicators, and describing key program components. The article discusses program oversight, local program partnerships, program funding mechanisms, and local…

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Prevention of pressure sores by identifying patients at risk.

PubMed Central

Andersen, K E; Jensen, O; Kvorning, S A; Bach, E

1982-01-01

The risk of pressure sores developing in patients admitted with acute conditions was assessed by a simple risk score system based on age, reduced mobility, incontinence, pronounced emaciation, redness over bony prominences, unconsciousness, dehydration, and paralysis in a prospective clinical study. During seven months in 1977, 600 of 3571 patients were classified as at risk. Of these 35 (5.8%) developed sores compared with five (0.2%) of those not at risk. The results of this study compared with those over the same period in 1976 show that close observation of at-risk patients and early detection of pressure sores prevents their development. PMID:6803980

The Readmission Risk Flag: Using the Electronic Health Record to Automatically Identify Patients at Risk for 30-day Readmission

PubMed Central

Baillie, Charles A.; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C. William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A.

2015-01-01

Background Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. Objective To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system’s EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Design Retrospective and prospective cohort. Setting Healthcare system consisting of three hospitals. Patients All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. Interventions An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Measures Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Results Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a c-statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%) and c-statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. Conclusions An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. PMID:24227707

The readmission risk flag: using the electronic health record to automatically identify patients at risk for 30-day readmission.

PubMed

Baillie, Charles A; VanZandbergen, Christine; Tait, Gordon; Hanish, Asaf; Leas, Brian; French, Benjamin; Hanson, C William; Behta, Maryam; Umscheid, Craig A

2013-12-01

Identification of patients at high risk for readmission is a crucial step toward improving care and reducing readmissions. The adoption of electronic health records (EHR) may prove important to strategies designed to risk stratify patients and introduce targeted interventions. To develop and implement an automated prediction model integrated into our health system's EHR that identifies on admission patients at high risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. Retrospective and prospective cohort. Healthcare system consisting of 3 hospitals. All adult patients admitted from August 2009 to September 2012. An automated readmission risk flag integrated into the EHR. Thirty-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned healthcare system readmissions. Using retrospective data, a single risk factor, ≥ 2 inpatient admissions in the past 12 months, was found to have the best balance of sensitivity (40%), positive predictive value (31%), and proportion of patients flagged (18%), with a C statistic of 0.62. Sensitivity (39%), positive predictive value (30%), proportion of patients flagged (18%), and C statistic (0.61) during the 12-month period after implementation of the risk flag were similar. There was no evidence for an effect of the intervention on 30-day all-cause and 7-day unplanned readmission rates in the 12-month period after implementation. An automated prediction model was effectively integrated into an existing EHR and identified patients on admission who were at risk for readmission within 30 days of discharge. © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review

PubMed Central

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, SV; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-01-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction ‘within’ populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to ‘populations’ that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others. PMID:19261658

GIS Database and Google Map of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Mueang Yang District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand.

PubMed

Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Joosiri, Apinya; Jantakate, Sirinun; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Chimplee, Kanokporn; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious problem in Thailand, particularly in the northeastern and northern regions. Database of population at risk are need required for monitoring, surveillance, home health care, and home visit. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a geographic information system (GIS) database and Google map of the population at risk of CCA in Mueang Yang district, Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand during June to October 2015. Populations at risk were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST). Software included Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS, and Google Maps. The secondary data included the point of villages, sub-district boundaries, district boundaries, point of hospital in Mueang Yang district, used for created the spatial databese. The populations at risk for CCA and opisthorchiasis were used to create an arttribute database. Data were tranfered to WGS84 UTM ZONE 48. After the conversion, all of the data were imported into Google Earth using online web pages www.earthpoint.us. Some 222 from a 4,800 population at risk for CCA constituted a high risk group. Geo-visual display available at following www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/ edit?mid=zPxtcHv_iDLo.kvPpxl5mAs90 and hl=th. Geo-visual display 5 layers including: layer 1, village location and number of the population at risk for CCA; layer 2, sub-district health promotion hospital in Mueang Yang district and number of opisthorchiasis; layer 3, sub-district district and the number of population at risk for CCA; layer 4, district hospital and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis; and layer 5, district and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis. This GIS database and Google map production process is suitable for further monitoring, surveillance, and home health care for CCA sufferers.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

PubMed

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Service Learning for At-Risk Student Populations: The Contextual Dynamism of Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akin, Jacob T.; Vesely, Randall S.

2016-01-01

The central purpose of this article is to explore research, issues, and perspectives on the implementation of service learning programs to improve student achievement in at-risk student populations. The implementation of service learning programs takes place within multiple contexts and across several terrains. The complexities of implementing…

Can we use subchondral bone thickness on high-field magnetic resonance images to identify Thoroughbred racehorses at risk of catastrophic lateral condylar fracture?

PubMed

Tranquille, C A; Murray, R C; Parkin, T D H

2017-03-01

Fractures of the lateral condyle of the third metacarpus (MC3) are a significant welfare concern in horseracing worldwide. The primary aim of this work was to identify magnetic resonance (MR) image-detectable prefracture markers that have the potential for use as a screening tool to identify horses at significant risk of catastrophic fracture. Case-control study of bone-level risk factors for fracture in racehorses. A total of 191 MC3s from horses, with and without lateral condylar fracture of MC3, were subjected to MR imaging. The depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone was measured at several sites around the distal end of the bone and regression analyses were conducted to identify differences in this depth between horses with and without lateral condylar fracture. Greater depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone in the palmar half of the lateral parasagittal groove of distal MC3 was associated with an increased likelihood of being from a horse that had sustained a fracture. Receiver operator characteristic analysis was used to identify the optimal cut-off in the depth of dense subchondral/trabecular bone at this site to best discriminate fracture status. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the prevalence of fracture within the current study and also a prevalence estimate for the wider racehorse population. There is a requirement to identify suitable prescreening test(s) to eliminate many true negative horses and increase the prevalence of prefracture pathology in the sub population that would be screened using MR imaging, in turn maximising the positive predictive value of this test. © 2016 EVJ Ltd.

Genocide Exposure and Subsequent Suicide Risk: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Levine, Stephen Z.; Levav, Itzhak; Yoffe, Rinat; Becher, Yifat; Pugachova, Inna

2016-01-01

The association between periods of genocide-related exposures and suicide risk remains unknown. Our study tests that association using a national population-based study design. The source population comprised of all persons born during1922-1945 in Nazi-occupied or dominated European nations, that immigrated to Israel by 1965, were identified in the Population Register (N = 220,665), and followed up for suicide to 2014, totaling 16,953,602 person-years. The population was disaggregated to compare a trauma gradient among groups that immigrated before (indirect, n = 20,612, 9%); during (partial direct, n = 17,037, 8%); or after (full direct, n = 183,016, 83%) exposure to the Nazi era. Also, the direct exposure groups were examined regarding pre- or post-natal exposure periods. Cox regression models were used to compute Hazard Ratios (HR) of suicide risk to compare the exposure groups, adjusting for confounding by gender, residential SES and history of psychiatric hospitalization. In the total population, only the partial direct exposure subgroup was at greater risk compared to the indirect exposure group (HR = 1.73, 95% CI, 1.10, 2.73; P < .05). That effect replicated in six sensitivity analyses. In addition, sensitivity analyses showed that exposure at ages 13 plus among females, and follow-up by years since immigration were associated with a greater risk; whereas in utero exposure among persons with no psychiatric hospitalization and early postnatal exposure among males were at a reduced risk. Tentative mechanisms impute biopsychosocial vulnerability and natural selection during early critical periods among males, and feelings of guilt and entrapment or defeat among females. PMID:26901411

Liver stiffness and platelet count for identifying patients with compensated liver disease at low risk of variceal bleeding.

PubMed

Marot, Astrid; Trépo, Eric; Doerig, Christopher; Schoepfer, Alain; Moreno, Christophe; Deltenre, Pierre

2017-05-01

The 2015 Baveno VI guidelines recommend against performing upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in patients with compensated cirrhosis who have a liver stiffness <20 kPa and a platelet count >150 000/mm³ because of a low prevalence of varices at risk of bleeding in this population. The aim was to synthesize the available evidence on the usefulness of the combined use of liver stiffness and platelet count to identify patients without oesophageal varices. Meta-analysis of trials evaluating the usefulness of a given cut-off for liver stiffness and platelet count to rule out the presence of oesophageal varices. Fifteen studies were included. All studies excepting five used the Baveno VI criteria. Compared to patients with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count, those with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count had a lower risk of varices at risk of bleeding (OR=0.22, 95% CI=0.13-0.39, P<.001) with low heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =21%). They also had a lower risk of varices (OR=0.23, 95% CI=0.17-0.32, P<.001) with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =28%). In patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count, the pooled estimate rates for varices at risk of bleeding was 0.040 (95% CI=0.027-0.059) with low heterogeneity between studies (I 2 =3%). Patients with low liver stiffness and normal platelet count have a lower risk of varices than those with either high liver stiffness or low platelet count. Varices at risk of bleeding are found in no more than 4% of patients when liver stiffness is <20 kPa and platelet count is normal. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An application in identifying high-risk populations in alternative tobacco product use utilizing logistic regression and CART: a heuristic comparison.

PubMed

Lei, Yang; Nollen, Nikki; Ahluwahlia, Jasjit S; Yu, Qing; Mayo, Matthew S

2015-04-09

rate was 0.342 for the training sample and 0.346 for the validation sample. The CART model was easier to interpret and discovered target populations that possess clinical significance. This study suggests that the non-parametric CART model is parsimonious, potentially easier to interpret, and provides additional information in identifying the subgroups at high risk of ATP use among cigarette smokers.

Family communication in a population at risk for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Batte, Brittany; Sheldon, Jane P; Arscott, Patricia; Huismann, Darcy J; Salberg, Lisa; Day, Sharlene M; Yashar, Beverly M

2015-04-01

Encouraging family communication is an integral component of genetic counseling; therefore, we sought to identify factors impacting communication to family members at risk for Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM). Participants (N = 383) completed an online survey assessing: 1) demographics (gender, genetic test results, HCM family history, and disease severity); 2) illness representations; 3) family functioning and cohesiveness; 4) coping styles; 5) comprehension of HCM autosomal dominant inheritance; and 6) communication of HCM risk information to at-risk relatives. Participants were a national sample of individuals with HCM, recruited through the Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Association. Data from 183 participants were analyzed using a logistic regression analysis, with family communication as a dichotomous dependent variable. We found that female gender and higher comprehension of autosomal dominant inheritance were significant predictors of participants' communication of HCM risk information to all their siblings and children. Our results suggest that utilizing interventions that promote patient comprehension (e.g., a teaching-focused model of genetic counseling) are important and may positively impact family communication within families with HCM.

Current and future assays for identifying recent HIV infections at the population level

PubMed Central

Smoleń-Dzirba, Joanna; Wąsik, Tomasz J.

2011-01-01

Summary The precise diagnosis of recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is crucial for estimating HIV incidence, defined as the number of new infections in a population, per person at risk, during a specified time period. Incidence assessment is considered to be a tool for surveillance, public health and research. Differentiating recent from long-term HIV infections is possible thanks to the evaluation of HIV-specific immune response development or viral markers measurement. Several methods that enable the recognition of recent HIV-1 infection with the use of a single blood specimen have been developed, and their value for use in population level studies has been demonstrated. However, they are still inadequate due to a variable window period and false recent rates among HIV clades and across populations. Application of these assays at an individual level is far more questionable because of person-to-person variability in the antibody response and the course of HIV infection, and because of the prospective regulatory approval requirements. In this article we review the principles and the limitations of the currently available major laboratory techniques that allow detection of recent HIV infection. The assays based on the alteration of serological parameters, as well as the newest method based on an increase of HIV genetic diversity with the progress of infection, are described. PMID:21525823

Cost-effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine in a stable refugee population at risk for epidemic cholera and in a population with endemic cholera.

PubMed Central

Murray, J.; McFarland, D. A.; Waldman, R. J.

1998-01-01

Recent large epidemics of cholera with high incidence and associated mortality among refugees have raised the question of whether oral cholera vaccines should be considered as an additional preventive measure in high-risk populations. The potential impact of oral cholera vaccines on populations prone to seasonal endemic cholera has also been questioned. This article reviews the potential cost-effectiveness of B-subunit, killed whole-cell (BS-WC) oral cholera vaccine in a stable refugee population and in a population with endemic cholera. In the population at risk for endemic cholera, mass vaccination with BS-WC vaccine is the least cost-effective intervention compared with the provision of safe drinking-water and sanitation or with treatment of the disease. In a refugee population at risk for epidemic disease, the cost-effectiveness of vaccination is similar to that of providing safe drinking-water and sanitation alone, though less cost-effective than treatment alone or treatment combined with the provision of water and sanitation. The implications of these data for public health decision-makers and programme managers are discussed. There is a need for better information on the feasibility and costs of administering oral cholera vaccine in refugee populations and populations with endemic cholera. PMID:9803585

Identifying the women at risk of antenatal anxiety and depression: A systematic review.

PubMed

Biaggi, Alessandra; Conroy, Susan; Pawlby, Susan; Pariante, Carmine M

2016-02-01

Pregnancy is a time of increased vulnerability for the development of anxiety and depression. This systematic review aims to identify the main risk factors involved in the onset of antenatal anxiety and depression. A systematic literature analysis was conducted, using PubMed, PsychINFO, and the Cochrane Library. Original papers were included if they were written in English and published between 1st January 2003 and 31st August 2015, while literature reviews and meta-analyses were consulted regardless of publication date. A final number of 97 papers were selected. The most relevant factors associated with antenatal depression or anxiety were: lack of partner or of social support; history of abuse or of domestic violence; personal history of mental illness; unplanned or unwanted pregnancy; adverse events in life and high perceived stress; present/past pregnancy complications; and pregnancy loss. The review does not include a meta-analysis, which may have added additional information about the differential impact of each risk factor. Moreover, it does not specifically examine factors that may influence different types of anxiety disorders, or the recurrence or persistence of depression or anxiety from pregnancy to the postpartum period. The results show the complex aetiology of antenatal depression and anxiety. The administration of a screening tool to identify women at risk of anxiety and depression during pregnancy should be universal practice in order to promote the long-term wellbeing of mothers and babies, and the knowledge of specific risk factors may help creating such screening tool targeting women at higher risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The international limits and population at risk of Plasmodium vivax transmission in 2009.

PubMed

Guerra, Carlos A; Howes, Rosalind E; Patil, Anand P; Gething, Peter W; Van Boeckel, Thomas P; Temperley, William H; Kabaria, Caroline W; Tatem, Andrew J; Manh, Bui H; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Baird, J Kevin; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-08-03

A research priority for Plasmodium vivax malaria is to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of risk and its relationship with the burden of P. vivax disease in human populations. The aim of the research outlined in this article is to provide a contemporary evidence-based map of the global spatial extent of P. vivax malaria, together with estimates of the human population at risk (PAR) of any level of transmission in 2009. The most recent P. vivax case-reporting data that could be obtained for all malaria endemic countries were used to classify risk into three classes: malaria free, unstable (<0.1 case per 1,000 people per annum (p.a.)) and stable (> or =0.1 case per 1,000 p.a.) P. vivax malaria transmission. Risk areas were further constrained using temperature and aridity data based upon their relationship with parasite and vector bionomics. Medical intelligence was used to refine the spatial extent of risk in specific areas where transmission was reported to be absent (e.g., large urban areas and malaria-free islands). The PAR under each level of transmission was then derived by combining the categorical risk map with a high resolution population surface adjusted to 2009. The exclusion of large Duffy negative populations in Africa from the PAR totals was achieved using independent modelling of the gene frequency of this genetic trait. It was estimated that 2.85 billion people were exposed to some risk of P. vivax transmission in 2009, with 57.1% of them living in areas of unstable transmission. The vast majority (2.59 billion, 91.0%) were located in Central and South East (CSE) Asia, whilst the remainder were located in America (0.16 billion, 5.5%) and in the Africa+ region (0.10 billion, 3.5%). Despite evidence of ubiquitous risk of P. vivax infection in Africa, the very high prevalence of Duffy negativity throughout Central and West Africa reduced the PAR estimates substantially. After more than a century of development and control, P. vivax

Genetic Testing as a Tool to Identify Horses with or at Risk for Ocular Disorders.

PubMed

Bellone, Rebecca R

2017-12-01

Advances in equine genetics and genomics resources have enabled the understanding of some inherited ocular disorders and ocular manifestations. These ocular disorders include congenital stationary night blindness, equine recurrent uveitis, multiple congenital ocular anomalies, and squamous cell carcinoma. Genetic testing can identify horses with or at risk for disease and thus can assist in clinical management. In addition, genetic testing can identify horses that are carriers and thus can inform breeding decisions. Use of genetic tests in management and breeding decisions should aid in reducing the incidence of these disorders and improving the outcomes for horses at highest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

PubMed

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classroom Dynamics and Young Children Identified as At Risk for the Development of Serious Emotional Disturbance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lago-Delello, Ellie

This study examined differences between kindergarten and first-grade children identified as at risk (AR) or not at risk (NAR) for the development of severe emotional disturbance on selected factors of classroom dynamics. Screening, using the Systematic Screening for Behavior Disorders measure, of all 628 kindergarten and first-grade children at…

Identifying Children at Risk for Language Impairment or Dyslexia with Group-Administered Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adlof, Suzanne M.; Scoggins, Joanna; Brazendale, Allison; Babb, Spencer; Petscher, Yaacov

2017-01-01

Purpose: The study aims to determine whether brief, group-administered screening measures can reliably identify second-grade children at risk for language impairment (LI) or dyslexia and to examine the degree to which parents of affected children were aware of their children's difficulties. Method: Participants (N = 381) completed screening tasks…

Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Kjellberg, Siri M; Gooch, Pernille; Dabaieh, Marwa; Anandh, Latha; Venugopal, Vidhya

2018-03-01

During the summer of 2015, India was hit by a scorching heat wave that melted pavements in Delhi and caused thousands of deaths, mainly among the most marginalized populations. One such group facing growing heat risks from both occupational and meteorological causes are migrant brick kiln workers. This study evaluates both current heat risks and the potential future impacts of heat caused by climate change, for the people working at brick kilns in India. A case study of heat stress faced by people working at brick kilns near Chennai, India, is the anchor point around which a transdisciplinary approach was applied. Around Chennai, the situation is alarming since occupational heat exposure in the hot season from March to July is already at the upper limits of what humans can tolerate before risking serious impairment. The aim of the study was to identify new pathways for change and soft solutions by both reframing the problem and expanding the solution space being considered in order to improve the quality of life for the migrant populations at the brick kilns. Technical solutions evaluated include the use of sun-dried mud bricks and other locally "appropriate technologies" that could mitigate the worsening of climate change-induced heat. Socio-cultural solutions discussed for empowering the people who work at the brick kilns include participatory approaches such as open re-localization, and rights-based approaches including the environmental sustainability and the human rights-based approach framework. Our analysis suggests that an integrative, transdisciplinary approach could incorporate a more holistic range of technical and socio-culturally informed solutions in order to protect the health of people threatened by India's brick kiln industry.

Climate change-induced heat risks for migrant populations working at brick kilns in India: a transdisciplinary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lundgren-Kownacki, Karin; Kjellberg, Siri M.; Gooch, Pernille; Dabaieh, Marwa; Anandh, Latha; Venugopal, Vidhya

2018-03-01

During the summer of 2015, India was hit by a scorching heat wave that melted pavements in Delhi and caused thousands of deaths, mainly among the most marginalized populations. One such group facing growing heat risks from both occupational and meteorological causes are migrant brick kiln workers. This study evaluates both current heat risks and the potential future impacts of heat caused by climate change, for the people working at brick kilns in India. A case study of heat stress faced by people working at brick kilns near Chennai, India, is the anchor point around which a transdisciplinary approach was applied. Around Chennai, the situation is alarming since occupational heat exposure in the hot season from March to July is already at the upper limits of what humans can tolerate before risking serious impairment. The aim of the study was to identify new pathways for change and soft solutions by both reframing the problem and expanding the solution space being considered in order to improve the quality of life for the migrant populations at the brick kilns. Technical solutions evaluated include the use of sun-dried mud bricks and other locally "appropriate technologies" that could mitigate the worsening of climate change-induced heat. Socio-cultural solutions discussed for empowering the people who work at the brick kilns include participatory approaches such as open re-localization, and rights-based approaches including the environmental sustainability and the human rights-based approach framework. Our analysis suggests that an integrative, transdisciplinary approach could incorporate a more holistic range of technical and socio-culturally informed solutions in order to protect the health of people threatened by India's brick kiln industry.

A partner-related risk behavior index to identify people at elevated risk for sexually transmitted infections.

PubMed

Crosby, Richard; Shrier, Lydia A

2013-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and test a sexual-partner-related risk behavior index to identify high-risk individuals most likely to have a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Patients from five STI and adolescent medical clinics in three US cities were recruited (N = 928; M age = 29.2 years). Data were collected using audio-computer-assisted self-interviewing. Of seven sexual-partner-related variables, those that were significantly associated with the outcomes were combined into a partner-related risk behavior index. The dependent variables were laboratory-confirmed infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and/or Trichomonas vaginalis. Nearly one-fifth of the sample (169/928; 18.4%) tested positive for an STI. Three of the seven items were significantly associated with having one or more STIs: sex with a newly released prisoner, sex with a person known or suspected of having an STI, and sexual concurrency. In combined form, this three-item index was significantly associated with STI prevalence (p < .001). In the presence of three covariates (gender, race, and age), those classified as being at-risk by the index were 1.8 times more likely than those not classified as such to test positive for an STI (p < .001). Among individuals at risk for STIs, a three-item index predicted testing positive for one or more of three STIs. This index could be used to prioritize and guide intensified clinic-based counseling for high-risk patients of STI and other clinics.

Implementation of Music Activities to Increase Language Skills in the At-Risk Early Childhood Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seeman, Elissa

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the short-term effects of a music education intervention on the receptive language skills of students in an at-risk early childhood program. The target population was nine students ages 3, 4, and 5 in an at-risk, inclusive classroom in a Chicago public school. The problem of language delay is indicated in…

Enhancing the Value of Population-Based Risk Scores for Institutional-Level Use.

PubMed

Raza, Sajjad; Sabik, Joseph F; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Idrees, Jay J; Trezzi, Matteo; Riaz, Haris; Javadikasgari, Hoda; Nowicki, Edward R; Svensson, Lars G; Blackstone, Eugene H

2016-07-01

We hypothesized that factors associated with an institution's residual risk unaccounted for by population-based models may be identifiable and used to enhance the value of population-based risk scores for quality improvement. From January 2000 to January 2010, 4,971 patients underwent aortic valve replacement (AVR), either isolated (n = 2,660) or with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (AVR+CABG; n = 2,311). Operative mortality and major morbidity and mortality predicted by The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models were compared with observed values. After adjusting for patients' STS score, additional and refined risk factors were sought to explain residual risk. Differences between STS model coefficients (risk-factor strength) and those specific to our institution were calculated. Observed operative mortality was less than predicted for AVR (1.6% [42 of 2,660] vs 2.8%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (2.6% [59 of 2,311] vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001). Observed major morbidity and mortality was also lower than predicted for isolated AVR (14.6% [389 of 2,660] vs 17.5%, p < 0.0001) and AVR+CABG (20.0% [462 of 2,311] vs 25.8%, p < 0.0001). Shorter height, higher bilirubin, and lower albumin were identified as additional institution-specific risk factors, and body surface area, creatinine, glomerular filtration rate, blood urea nitrogen, and heart failure across all levels of functional class were identified as refined risk-factor variables associated with residual risk. In many instances, risk-factor strength differed substantially from that of STS models. Scores derived from population-based models can be enhanced for institutional level use by adjusting for institution-specific additional and refined risk factors. Identifying these and measuring differences in institution-specific versus population-based risk-factor strength can identify areas to target for quality improvement initiatives. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier

Identifying Children in Middle Childhood Who Are at Risk for Reading Problems.

PubMed

Speece, Deborah L; Ritchey, Kristen D; Silverman, Rebecca; Schatschneider, Christopher; Walker, Caroline Y; Andrusik, Katryna N

2010-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate a universal screening battery for reading that is appropriate for older elementary students in a response to intervention model. Multiple measures of reading and reading correlates were administered to 230 fourth-grade children. Teachers rated children's reading skills, academic competence, and attention. Children were classified as not-at-risk or at-risk readers based on a three-factor model reflecting reading comprehension, word recognition/decoding, and word fluency. Predictors of reading status included group-administered tests of reading comprehension, silent word reading fluency, and teacher ratings of reading problems. Inclusion of individually administered tests and growth estimates did not add substantial variance. The receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis yielded an area under the curve index of 0.90, suggesting this model may both accurately and efficiently screen older elementary students with reading problems.

School-based Screening to Identify Children At Risk for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: Barriers and Implications

PubMed Central

Barry, Tammy D.; Sturner, Raymond A.; Seymour, Karen; Howard, Barbara H.; McGoron, Lucy; Bergmann, Paul; Kent, Ronald; Sullivan, Casey; Tomeny, Theodore S.; Pierce, Jessica S.; Coin, Kristen L.; Goodlad, James K.; Werle, Nichole

2014-01-01

This report describes a school-based screening project to improve early identification of children at risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and communicate these concerns to parents, recommending that they contact their child’s primary care provider (PCP). Of 17,440 eligible children in first through fifth grades in five school districts, 47.0% of parents provided required written consent, and teachers completed 70.4% of the online screeners (using the Vanderbilt AD/HD Diagnostic Teacher Rating Scale). Of 5,772 screeners completed, 18.1% of children (n = 1,044) were identified as at risk. Parents of at-risk children were contacted to explain risk status and recommended to visit their child’s PCP for further evaluation. It was not possible to contact 39.1% of parents of at-risk children. Of the 636 parents of at-risk children who could be contacted, 53.1% (n = 338) verbally accepted the recommendation to follow-up with their PCP, which was not related to ADHD symptom severity. Parents of children with IEPs or related services were more likely to accept the recommendation to visit the PCP. Our exploration of the potential for school-based screening for ADHD identified a number of barriers to successful execution, but the data also indicated that this is an important problem to address. PMID:27642209

Exome Sequencing Identifies Potential Risk Variants for Mendelian Disorders at High Prevalence in Qatar

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Flores, Juan L.; Fakhro, Khalid; Hackett, Neil R.; Salit, Jacqueline; Fuller, Jennifer; Agosto-Perez, Francisco; Gharbiah, Maey; Malek, Joel A.; Zirie, Mahmoud; Jayyousi, Amin; Badii, Ramin; Al-Marri, Ajayeb Al-Nabet; Chouchane, Lotfi; Stadler, Dora J.; Hunter-Zinck, Haley; Mezey, Jason G.; Crystal, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

Exome sequencing of families of related individuals has been highly successful in identifying genetic polymorphisms responsible for Mendelian disorders. Here, we demonstrate the value of the reverse approach, where we use exome sequencing of a sample of unrelated individuals to analyze allele frequencies of known causal mutations for Mendelian diseases. We sequenced the exomes of 100 individuals representing the three major genetic subgroups of the Qatari population (Q1 Bedouin, Q2 Persian-South Asian, Q3 African) and identified 37 variants in 33 genes with effects on 36 clinically significant Mendelian diseases. These include variants not present in 1000 Genomes and variants at high frequency when compared to 1000 Genomes populations. Several of these Mendelian variants were only segregating in one Qatari subpopulation, where the observed subpopulation specificity trends were confirmed in an independent population of 386 Qataris. Pre-marital genetic screening in Qatar tests for only 4 out of the 37, such that this study provides a set of Mendelian disease variants with potential impact on the epidemiological profile of the population that could be incorporated into the testing program if further experimental and clinical characterization confirms high penetrance. PMID:24123366

Screening for violence risk factors identifies young adults at risk for return emergency department visit for injury.

PubMed

Hankin, Abigail; Wei, Stanley; Foreman, Juron; Houry, Debra

2014-08-01

Homicide is the second leading cause of death among youth aged 15-24. Prior cross-sectional studies, in non-healthcare settings, have reported exposure to community violence, peer behavior, and delinquency as risk factors for violent injury. However, longitudinal cohort studies have not been performed to evaluate the temporal or predictive relationship between these risk factors and emergency department (ED) visits for injuries among at-risk youth. The objective was to assess whether self-reported exposure to violence risk factors in young adults can be used to predict future ED visits for injuries over a 1-year period. This prospective cohort study was performed in the ED of a Southeastern US Level I trauma center. Eligible participants were patients aged 18-24, presenting for any chief complaint. We excluded patients if they were critically ill, incarcerated, or could not read English. Initial recruitment occurred over a 6-month period, by a research assistant in the ED for 3-5 days per week, with shifts scheduled such that they included weekends and weekdays, over the hours from 8AM-8PM. At the time of initial contact in the ED, patients were asked to complete a written questionnaire, consisting of previously validated instruments measuring the following risk factors: a) aggression, b) perceived likelihood of violence, c) recent violent behavior, d) peer behavior, e) community exposure to violence, and f) positive future outlook. At 12 months following the initial ED visit, the participants' medical records were reviewed to identify any subsequent ED visits for injury-related complaints. We analyzed data with chi-square and logistic regression analyses. Three hundred thirty-two patients were approached, of whom 300 patients consented. Participants' average age was 21.1 years, with 60.1% female, 86.0% African American. After controlling for participant gender, ethnicity, or injury complaint at time of first visit, return visits for injuries were significantly

Prevalence in vulnerable population of liver fibrosis identified by transient elastography.

PubMed

Chávez-Tapia, Norberto; Torres-Sánchez, Jorge; Romero-Flores, Juan; Álvarez-Quiroz, Paulina; Ramírez-Álvarez, Sandra; Juárez-Hernández, Eva; Pérez-Jáuregui, José; Méndez-Sánchez, Nahum; Uribe, Misael

2015-01-01

Transient elastography (TE) is a useful tool for the assessment of hepatic fibrosis as an alternative to liver biopsy, but it has not been validated as a screening procedure in apparently healthy people. To determine the prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis diagnosed by TE in a socioeconomically challenged rural population. We enrolled 299 participants aged over 18 years old from a vulnerable population in Mexico who responded to an open invitation. All participants had their history recorded and underwent a general clinical examination and a liver stiffness measurement, performed by a single operator according to international standards. Overall, 7.35% participants were found to be at high risk for cirrhosis. Three variables correlated with a risk for a TE measure ≥ 9 kPa and significant fibrosis: history of alcohol intake [7.95 vs. 92.04%, odds ratio (OR) 4.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-13.78, P = 0.0167], body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2 (30.87 vs. 69.12%, OR 4.25, 95%CI 1.04-6.10, P = 0.049), and history of diabetes mellitus (14.87 vs. 85.12%, OR 2.76, 95%CI 1.002-7.63, P = 0.0419). In the multivariate analyses BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 was the only significant risk factor for advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis (OR 2.54, 95%CI 1.02-6.3, P = 0.0460). TE could be useful as a screening process to identify advanced liver fibrosis in the general and apparently healthy population.

Approaches for assessing risks to sensitive populations: Lessons learned from evaluating risks in the pediatric populations*

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a 'tool chest' of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of...

Identifying Voxels at Risk for Progression in Glioblastoma Based on Dosimetry, Physiologic and Metabolic MRI.

PubMed

Anwar, Mekhail; Molinaro, Annette M; Morin, Olivier; Chang, Susan M; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A; Nelson, Sarah J; Lupo, Janine M

2017-09-01

Despite the longstanding role of radiation in cancer treatment and the presence of advanced, high-resolution imaging techniques, delineation of voxels at-risk for progression remains purely a geometric expansion of anatomic images, missing subclinical disease at risk for recurrence while treating potentially uninvolved tissue and increasing toxicity. This remains despite the modern ability to precisely shape radiation fields. A striking example of this is the treatment of glioblastoma, a highly infiltrative tumor that may benefit from accurate identification of subclinical disease. In this study, we hypothesize that parameters from physiologic and metabolic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at diagnosis could predict the likelihood of voxel progression at radiographic recurrence in glioblastoma by identifying voxel characteristics that indicate subclinical disease. Integrating dosimetry can reveal its effect on voxel outcome, enabling risk-adapted voxel dosing. As a system example, 24 patients with glioblastoma treated with radiotherapy, temozolomide and an anti-angiogenic agent were analyzed. Pretreatment median apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), fractional anisotropy (FA), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), vessel leakage (percentage recovery), choline-to-NAA index (CNI) and dose of voxels in the T2 nonenhancing lesion (NEL), T1 post-contrast enhancing lesion (CEL) or normal-appearing volume (NAV) of brain, were calculated for voxels that progressed [NAV→NEL, CEL (N = 8,765)] and compared against those that remained stable [NAV→NAV (N = 98,665)]. Voxels that progressed (NAV→NEL) had significantly different (P < 0.01) ADC (860), FA (0.36) and CNI (0.67) versus stable voxels (804, 0.43 and 0.05, respectively), indicating increased cell turnover, edema and decreased directionality, consistent with subclinical disease. NAV→CEL voxels were more abnormal (1,014, 0.28, 2.67, respectively) and leakier (percentage recovery = 70). A predictive model

Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control.

PubMed

Kracalik, Ian T; Kenu, Ernest; Ayamdooh, Evans Nsoh; Allegye-Cudjoe, Emmanuel; Polkuu, Paul Nokuma; Frimpong, Joseph Asamoah; Nyarko, Kofi Mensah; Bower, William A; Traxler, Rita; Blackburn, Jason K

2017-10-01

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005-2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0-175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups.

Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control

PubMed Central

Allegye-Cudjoe, Emmanuel; Polkuu, Paul Nokuma; Frimpong, Joseph Asamoah; Nyarko, Kofi Mensah; Bower, William A.; Traxler, Rita

2017-01-01

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005–2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0–175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups. PMID:29028799

Identifying and Managing Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abraham, Janice M.

1999-01-01

The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development

PubMed Central

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loss, Scott R.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

PubMed

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management

Incidence of migraine and tension-type headache in three different populations at risk within the German DMKG headache study.

PubMed

Khil, Laura; Pfaffenrath, Volker; Straube, Andreas; Evers, Stefan; Berger, Klaus

2012-03-01

Unlike the prevalence, the incidence of headache disorders has attracted only little attention in epidemiological research. Different definitions of the 'population at risk' among the few published migraine and tension-type headache incidence studies limit their comparability and warrant further research. Therefore, we analysed data from the German Migraine and Headache Society (DMKG). Incidences were assessed in the general population in Germany via standardized headache questions using the International Classification of Headache Disorders, 2nd Edition (ICHD-2). The population was drawn from a 5-year age-group- stratified and gender-stratified random sample from the population register. Of the 1312 baseline participants examined between 2003 and 2004, 1122 (85.5%) participated in the follow-up in 2006 and were the basis for three different populations at risk. We found that the three populations differed in size, age, gender and incidence estimate. The total sample incidence of migraine ranged between 0% and 3.3% and of tension-type headache between 5.3% and 9.2% depending on the definition of 'at risk'. We concluded that one significant problem in headache incidence estimation is the definition of 'at risk', limiting comparability. Thus, this study supports the need for a common definition for prospective headache incidence estimations.

Approaches for Assessing Risks to Sensitive Populations: Lessons Learned from Evaluating Risks in the Pediatric Population

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the risk profiles of potentially sensitive populations requires a "tool chest" of methodological approaches to adequately characterize and evaluate these populations. At present, there is an extensive body of literature on methodologies that apply to the evaluation of t...

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

PubMed

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Relational-Behavior Model: A Pilot Assessment Study for At-Risk College Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Perkins, Michele D.

2007-01-01

This pilot study examined the relational-behavior model (RBM) as an HIV/AIDS assessment tool for at-risk college populations. Based on this theory, a survey was constructed to assess the six areas associated with HIV/AIDS prevention: personal awareness, knowledge deficiency, relational skills, HIV/STD stigmatization, community awareness, and…

Prevalence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in the General Population and in Subgroups at High Cardiovascular Risk in Italy. Results of the RoCAV Population Based Study.

PubMed

Gianfagna, Francesco; Veronesi, Giovanni; Tozzi, Matteo; Tarallo, Antonino; Borchini, Rossana; Ferrario, Marco M; Bertù, Lorenza; Montonati, Andrea; Castelli, Patrizio

2018-05-01

Prevalence data on abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in women, subjects younger than 65 years and in subgroups carrying specific risk factors are scarce. AAA prevalence was evaluated in an Italian population including women and younger subjects, stratifying for the presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and CVD risk score. A population based cross-sectional study was conducted between 2013 and 2016. Men aged 50-75 and women aged 60-75 years, resident in the city of Varese (northern Italy), were randomly selected from the civil registry. A vascular surgeon performed an abdominal aortic ultrasound scan at four sites using the leading edge to leading edge method. CVD risk score was computed using the ESC-SCORE algorithm. The age and gender specific prevalence was estimated, stratifying by the presence of CVD and cardiovascular risk factors. Among the 3755 subjects with a valid ultrasound measurement, 63 subjects with an AAA were identified (5 referred for surgical intervention), among whom 34 were not previously known (30 men 1.3%, 95% CI 0.9-1.8; 4 women 0.3%, 95% CI 0.1-0.8). Considering age classes in men only, the highest prevalence of screen detected AAA was found in subjects aged 65-70 (1.2%; 95% CI 0.4-2.5) and 70-75 (2.5%; 95% CI 1.4-4.0) years. Among 65-75 year old men, the highest AAA prevalence was found in subjects with a previous myocardial infarction (MI 4.9%, 95% CI 2.0-9.9) and in ever-smokers reporting more than 15 pack years of smoking (4.1%, 95% CI 2.5-6.3). Among the younger subjects, those having an ESC-SCORE higher than 5% or a previous CVD (MI or stroke) showed a prevalence of 1.4% (95% CI 0.3-4.2; prevalence including subaneurysms 6.7%, 95% CI 3.7-11.0%). In the study population, both a general screening program in 65-75 year old men and an approach targeted to subgroups at higher risk merit evaluation in a cost-effectiveness study. In 50-64 year old men, strategies for population selection should consider CVD risk stratification

Exposure to genocide and the risk of schizophrenia: a population-based study.

PubMed

Levine, S Z; Levav, I; Goldberg, Y; Pugachova, I; Becher, Y; Yoffe, R

2016-03-01

No evidence exists on the association between genocide and the incidence of schizophrenia. This study aims to identify critical periods of exposure to genocide on the risk of schizophrenia. This population-based study comprised of all subjects born in European nations where the Holocaust occurred from 1928 to 1945, who immigrated to Israel by 1965 and were indexed in the Population Register (N = 113 932). Subjects were followed for schizophrenia disorder in the National Psychiatric Case Registry from 1950 to 2014. The population was disaggregated to compare groups that immigrated before (indirect exposure: n = 8886, 7.8%) or after (direct exposure: n = 105 046, 92.2%) the Nazi or fascist era of persecutions began. The latter group was further disaggregated to examine likely initial prenatal or postnatal genocide exposures. Cox regression modelling was computed to compare the risk of schizophrenia between the groups, adjusting for confounders. The likely direct group was at a statistically (p < 0.05) greater risk of schizophrenia (hazard ratio = 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.51) than the indirect group. Also, the likely combined in utero and postnatal, and late postnatal (over age 2 years) exposure subgroups were statistically at greater risk of schizophrenia than the indirect group (p < 0.05). The likely in utero only and early postnatal (up to age 2 years) exposure subgroups compared with the indirect exposure group did not significantly differ. These results were replicated across three sensitivity analyses. This study showed that genocide exposure elevated the risk of schizophrenia, and identified in utero and postnatal (combined) and late postnatal (age over 2 years) exposures as critical periods of risk.

A random urine test can identify patients at risk of mesalamine non-adherence: a prospective study.

PubMed

Gifford, Anne E; Berg, Anders H; Lahiff, Conor; Cheifetz, Adam S; Horowitz, Gary; Moss, Alan C

2013-02-01

Mesalamine non-adherence is common among patients with ulcerative colitis (UC), and can be difficult to identify in practice. We sought to determine whether a random urine test for salicylates could be used as a marker of 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) ingestion and identify patients at risk of non-adherence. Our aim is to determine whether measurement of salicylates in a random urine sample correlates with 5-ASA levels, and predicts an individual's risk of mesalamine non-adherence. Prospective observational study. Urinary salicylates (by colorimetry) and 5-ASA (by liquid chromatography and tandem-mass spectrometry) were measured in a random urine sample at baseline in patients and controls. Mesalamine adherence was quantified by patient self-reports at enrollment and pharmacy refills of mesalamine over 6 months. A total of 93 patients with UC taking mesalamine maintenance therapy were prospectively enrolled from the clinic. Random urine salicylate levels (by colorimetry) were highly correlated with urine 5-ASA metabolite levels (by mass spectrometry; R2=0.9). A random urine salicylate level above 15 mg/dl distinguished patients who had recently taken mesalamine from controls (area under the curve value 0.9, sensitivity 95%, specificity 77%). A significant proportion of patients (27%) who self-identified as "high adherers" by an adherence questionnaire (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale-8) had random levels of urine salicylate below this threshold. These patients were at higher risk of objectively measured non-adherence to mesalamine over the subsequent 6 months (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-7.0). A random urine salicylate level measured in the clinic can identify patients who have not recently taken mesalamine, and who are at higher risk of longitudinal non-adherence. This test could be used to screen patients who may warrant interventions to improve adherence and prevent disease relapse.

A Shortened Version of the Suicide Cognitions Scale for Identifying Chronic Pain Patients at Risk for Suicide.

PubMed

Bryan, Craig J; Kanzler, Kathryn E; Grieser, Emily; Martinez, Annette; Allison, Sybil; McGeary, Donald

2017-03-01

Research in psychiatric outpatient and inpatient populations supports the utility of the Suicide Cognitions Scale (SCS) as an indicator of current and future risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Designed to assess suicide-specific thoughts and beliefs, the SCS has yet to be evaluated among chronic pain patients, a group with elevated risk for suicide. The purpose of the present study was to develop and test a shortened version of the SCS (the SCS-S). A total of 228 chronic pain patients completed a battery of self-report surveys before or after a scheduled appointment. Three outpatient medical clinics (pain medicine, orofacial pain, and clinical health psychology). Confirmatory factor analysis, multivariate regression, and graded item response theory model analyses. Results of the CFAs suggested that a 3-factor solution was optimal. A shortened 9-item scale was identified based on the results of graded item response theory model analyses. Correlation and multivariate analyses supported the construct and incremental validity of the SCS-S. Results support the reliability and validity of the SCS-S among chronic pain patients, and suggest the scale may be a useful method for identifying high-risk patients in medical settings. © 2016 World Institute of Pain.

Persistence of nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus identifies patients at lower risk for esophageal adenocarcinoma: results from a large multicenter cohort.

PubMed

Gaddam, Srinivas; Singh, Mandeep; Balasubramanian, Gokulakrishnan; Thota, Prashanthi; Gupta, Neil; Wani, Sachin; Higbee, April D; Mathur, Sharad C; Horwhat, John D; Rastogi, Amit; Young, Patrick E; Cash, Brooks D; Bansal, Ajay; Vargo, John J; Falk, Gary W; Lieberman, David A; Sampliner, Richard E; Sharma, Prateek

2013-09-01

Recent population-based studies have shown a low risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE). We evaluated whether persistence of NDBE over multiple consecutive surveillance endoscopic examinations could be used in risk stratification of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE). We performed a multicenter outcomes study of a large cohort of patients with BE. Based on the number of consecutive surveillance endoscopies showing NDBE, we identified 5 groups of patients. Patients in group 1 were found to have NDBE at their first esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD). Patients in group 2 were found to have NDBE on their first 2 consecutive EGDs. Similarly, patients in groups 3, 4, and 5 were found to have NDBE on 3, 4, and 5 consecutive surveillance EGDs. A logistic regression model was built to determine whether persistence of NDBE independently protected against development of cancer. Of a total of 3515 patients with BE, 1401 patients met the inclusion criteria (93.3% white; 87.5% men; median age, 60 ±17 years). The median follow-up period was 5 ± 3.9 years (7846 patient-years). The annual risk of EAC in groups 1 to 5 was 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.16%, 0.2%, and 0.11%, respectively (P for trend = .03). After adjusting for age, sex, and length of BE, persistence of NDBE, based on multiple surveillance endoscopies, was associated with a gradually lower likelihood of progression to EAC. Persistence of NDBE over several endoscopic examinations identifies patients who are at low risk for development of EAC. These findings support lengthening surveillance intervals or discontinuing surveillance of patients with persistent NDBE. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Bua Yai District, Nakhon Ratchasima of Thailand Using Google Map.

PubMed

Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Cherdjirapong, Karuna; Kujapun, Jirawoot; Norkaew, Jun; Chavengkun, Wasugree; Ponphimai, Sukanya; Polsripradist, Poowadol; Padchasuwan, Natnapa; Joosiri, Apinya; Wakkhuwattapong, Parichart; Loyd, Ryan A; Matrakool, Likit; Tongtawee, Taweesak; Panpimanmas, Sukij; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA), a major problem of health in Thailand, particularly in Northeastern and Northern regions, is generally incurable and rapidly lethal because of presentation in stage 3 or 4. Early diagnosis of stage 1 and 2 could allow better survival. Therefore, this study aimed to provide a distribution map of populations at risk for CCA in BuaYai district of Nakhon Ratchasima province, Northeast Thailand. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 10 sub-districts and 122 villages, during June and November 2015. The populations at risk for CCA were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST) and then risk areas were displayed by using Google map (GM). A total of 11,435 individuals from a 26,198 population completed the KCVST. The majority had a low score of risk for CCA (1-4 points; 93.3%). High scores with 6, 7 and 8 points accounted for 1.20%, 0.13% and 0.02%. The population at risk was found frequently in sub-district municipalities, followed by sub-district administrative organization and town municipalities, (F=396.220, P-value=0.000). Distribution mapping comprised 11 layers: 1, district; 2, local administrative organization; 3, hospital; 4, KCVST opisthorchiasis; 5, KCVST praziquantel used; 6, KCVST cholelithiasis; 7, KCVST raw fish consumption; 8, KCVST alcohol consumption; 9, KCVST pesticide used; 10, KCVST relative family with CCA; and 11, KCVST naive northeastern people. Geovisual display is now available online. This study indicated that the population at high risk of CCA in Bua Yai district is low, therefore setting a zero model project is possible. Key success factors for disease prevention and control need further study. GM production is suitable for further CCA surveillance and monitoring of the population with a high risk score in this area.

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics.

PubMed

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G; Haccou, Patsy

2012-12-07

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, repeated invasions and stochasticity. In addition, the use of linkage as a risk mitigation strategy has not been studied properly yet with genetic introgression models. Current genetic introgression studies fail to take repeated invasions and demographic stochasticity into account properly, and use incorrect measures of introgression risk that can be manipulated by arbitrary choices. In this study, we present proper methods for risk quantification that overcome these difficulties. We generalize a probabilistic risk measure, the so-called hazard rate of introgression, for application to introgression models with complex genetics and small natural population sizes. We illustrate the method by studying the effects of linkage and recombination on transgene introgression risk at different population sizes.

Using Geographical Information Systems to Identify Populations in Need of Improved Accessibility to Antivenom Treatment for Snakebite Envenoming in Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Hansson, Erik; Sasa, Mahmood; Mattisson, Kristoffer; Robles, Arodys; Gutiérrez, José María

2013-01-01

Introduction Snakebite accidents are an important health problem in rural areas of tropical countries worldwide, including Costa Rica, where most bites are caused by the pit-viper Bothrops asper. The treatment of these potentially fatal accidents is based on the timely administration of specific antivenom. In many regions of the world, insufficient health care systems and lack of antivenom in remote and poor areas where snakebites are common, means that efficient treatment is unavailable for many snakebite victims, leading to unnecessary mortality and morbidity. In this study, geographical information systems (GIS) were used to identify populations in Costa Rica with a need of improved access to antivenom treatment: those living in areas with a high risk of snakebites and long time to reach antivenom treatment. Method/Principal Findings Populations living in areas with high risk of snakebites were identified using two approaches: one based on the district-level reported incidence, and another based on mapping environmental factors favoring B. asper presence. Time to reach treatment using ambulance was estimated using cost surface analysis, thereby enabling adjustment of transportation speed by road availability and quality, topography and land use. By mapping populations in high risk of snakebites and the estimated time to treatment, populations with need of improved treatment access were identified. Conclusion/Significance This study demonstrates the usefulness of GIS for improving treatment of snakebites. By mapping reported incidence, risk factors, location of existing treatment resources, and the time estimated to reach these for at-risk populations, rational allocation of treatment resources is facilitated. PMID:23383352

Using geographical information systems to identify populations in need of improved accessibility to antivenom treatment for snakebite envenoming in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Hansson, Erik; Sasa, Mahmood; Mattisson, Kristoffer; Robles, Arodys; Gutiérrez, José María

2013-01-01

Snakebite accidents are an important health problem in rural areas of tropical countries worldwide, including Costa Rica, where most bites are caused by the pit-viper Bothrops asper. The treatment of these potentially fatal accidents is based on the timely administration of specific antivenom. In many regions of the world, insufficient health care systems and lack of antivenom in remote and poor areas where snakebites are common, means that efficient treatment is unavailable for many snakebite victims, leading to unnecessary mortality and morbidity. In this study, geographical information systems (GIS) were used to identify populations in Costa Rica with a need of improved access to antivenom treatment: those living in areas with a high risk of snakebites and long time to reach antivenom treatment. Populations living in areas with high risk of snakebites were identified using two approaches: one based on the district-level reported incidence, and another based on mapping environmental factors favoring B. asper presence. Time to reach treatment using ambulance was estimated using cost surface analysis, thereby enabling adjustment of transportation speed by road availability and quality, topography and land use. By mapping populations in high risk of snakebites and the estimated time to treatment, populations with need of improved treatment access were identified. This study demonstrates the usefulness of GIS for improving treatment of snakebites. By mapping reported incidence, risk factors, location of existing treatment resources, and the time estimated to reach these for at-risk populations, rational allocation of treatment resources is facilitated.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

A Quick Drinking Screen for identifying women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy.

PubMed

Dum, Mariam; Sobell, Linda Carter; Sobell, Mark B; Heinecke, Nicholas; Voluse, Andrew; Johnson, Kenneth

2009-09-01

Two previous studies comparing the Quick Drinking Screen (QDS) with the Timeline Followback (TLFB) found that these two instruments yielded similar reports of alcohol use for clinical and nonclinical populations of problem drinkers. The current study evaluated the correspondence between these two drinking measures with women at risk of an Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancy (AEP). Participants were 355 women who voluntarily participated in a research study during 2005 through 2007 designed to prevent AEPs. All women were screened by phone for eligibility using the QDS and approximately 2 weeks later completed a 3-month TLFB by mail. Results of this study, analyzed in 2008, paralleled previous studies showing that the QDS and the TLFB, two very different drinking measures, collected similar aggregate drinking data for women who drink heavily and are at risk of an AEP. Correspondence between the two drinking measures met acceptable levels of reliability. The present study found that the QDS has demonstrated efficacy for screening women whose level of alcohol use puts them at risk for an AEP. Although the QDS does not yield detailed drinking information, it could be used when it is not possible or necessary to gather daily drinking data.

Identifying Risk Factors Associated with Inappropriate Use of Acid Suppressive Therapy at a Community Hospital

PubMed Central

Bodukam, Vijay; Saigal, Kirit; Bahl, Jaya; Wang, Yvette; Hanlon, Alexandra; Lu, Yinghui; Davis, Michael

2016-01-01

Purpose. By examining the prescribing patterns and inappropriate use of acid suppressive therapy (AST) during hospitalization and at discharge we sought to identify the risk factors associated with such practices. Methods. In this retrospective observational study, inpatient records were reviewed from January 2011 to December 2013. Treatment with AST was considered appropriate if the patient had a known specific indication or met criteria for stress ulcer prophylaxis. Results. In 2011, out of 58 patients who were on AST on admission, 32 were newly started on it and 23 (72%) were inappropriate cases. In 2012, out of 97 patients on AST, 61 were newly started on it and 51 (84%) were inappropriate cases. In 2013, 99 patients were on AST, of which 48 were newly started on it and 36 (75%) were inappropriate cases. 19% of the patients inappropriately started on AST were discharged on it in three years. Younger age, female sex, and 1 or more handoffs between services were significantly associated with increased risk of inappropriate AST. Conclusion. Our findings reflect inappropriate prescription of AST which leads to increase in costs of care and unnecessarily puts the patient at risk for potential adverse events. The results of this study emphasize the importance of examining the patient's need for AST at each level of care especially when the identified risk factors are present. PMID:27818680

Using the personal background preparation survey to identify health science professions students at risk for adverse academic events.

PubMed

Johnson, Craig W; Johnson, Ronald; McKee, John C; Kim, Mira

2009-12-01

In the first predictive validity study of a diagnostic and prescriptive instrument for averting adverse academic status events (AASE) among multiple populations of diverse health science professions students, entering matriculates' personal background and preparation survey (PBPS) scores consistently significantly predicted 1st- or 2nd-year AASE. During 1st-year orientations, 441 entering matriculates in four southwestern schools from dental, medical, and nursing disciplines completed the 2004 PBPS. The following year during 1st-year orientations, 526 entering matriculates in five schools from dental, medical, nursing, and biomedical science disciplines completed the 2005 PBPS. The PBPS identifies and quantifies a student's noncognitive and cognitive academic performance risks. One standard deviation increments in PBPS risks consistently multiplied 1st- or 2nd-year AASE odds by approximately 140% (p < .05), controlling for underrepresented minority student (URMS) status and school affiliation. Odds of 2nd-year AASE for URMS one standard deviation above the 2004 PBPS mean reached 494% of odds for nonURMS at the mean. PBPS total risks, school affiliation, and URMS status together provided 70-76% correct predictions of 1st- or 2nd-year AASE. PBPS predictive validity did not differ significantly among dental, medical, nursing, or biomedical science schools, or URMS/nonURMS. PBPS sensitivity and specificity approached those for FDA-approved screening mammograms for breast cancer and PSA tests for prostate cancer. PBPS positive predictive values of 42-60% exceeded those for both. The diagnostic and prescriptive PBPS can facilitate proactive targeting of corrective interventions aimed at reducing AASE and attrition among health science education students at risk for academic difficulties.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

PubMed Central

Hussain, S. Monira; Oldenburg, Brian; Zoungas, Sophia; Tonkin, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk. PMID:24163770

Vulnerability Risk Index Profile for Elder Abuse in Community-Dwelling Population

PubMed Central

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa A.

2013-01-01

Objectives Elder abuse is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aims to develop a vulnerability index for elder abuse in a community-dwelling population. Design Population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants A population-based study was conducted in Chicago of community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). Of the 8,157 participants in the CHAP study, 213 participants were reported to social services agency for suspected elder abuse. Measurements A vulnerability index for elder abuse was constructed from sociodemographic, health-related, and psychosocial factors. The outcomes of interest were reported and confirmed elder abuse. Logistic regression models were used to determine the accuracy of the index with respect to elder abuse outcomes. Results Out of the selected risk index for elder abuse, every one point increase in the 9 item vulnerability index items, there was a two fold increase in the risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (2.00–2.40) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (1.94–2.47). Compared to the reference group, older adults with 3–4 vulnerability index items had increased risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.98 (1.98–4.49) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 3.90, (2.07–7.36); and older adults with 5 or more risk index items, there was an 18 fold increase in risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 18.46 (12.15–28.04) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 26.79 (14.18–50.61). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistically derived curves for identifying reported elder abuse ranged between 0.77–0.84 and for predicting confirmed elder abuse ranged between 0.79–0.86. Conclusion The vulnerability risk index demonstrates value for identifying individuals at risk for elder abuse. Additional studies are needed to validate this index in other community dwelling populations. PMID:25180376

Risk score for identifying adults with CSF pleocytosis and negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause.

PubMed

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-08-01

We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n = 193) and a retrospective validation (n = 567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high (≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95% CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95% CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISK SCORE FOR IDENTIFYING ADULTS WITH CSF PLEOCYTOSIS AND NEGATIVE CSF GRAM STAIN AT LOW RISK FOR AN URGENT TREATABLE CAUSE

PubMed Central

Hasbun, Rodrigo; Bijlsma, Merijn; Brouwer, Matthijs C; Khoury, Nabil; Hadi, Christiane M; van der Ende, Arie; Wootton, Susan H.; Salazar, Lucrecia; Hossain, Md Monir; Beilke, Mark; van de Beek, Diederik

2013-01-01

Background We aimed to derive and validate a risk score that identifies adults with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. Methods Patients with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain were stratified into a prospective derivation (n=193) and a retrospective validation (n=567) cohort. Clinically related baseline characteristics were grouped into three composite variables, each independently associated with a set of predefined urgent treatable causes. We subsequently derived a risk score classifying patients into low (0 composite variables present) or high ( ≥ 1 composite variables present) risk for an urgent treatable cause. The sensitivity of the risk score was determined in the validation cohort and in a prospective case series of 214 adults with CSF-culture proven bacterial meningitis, CSF pleocytosis and a negative Gram stain. Findings A total of 41 of 193 patients (21%) in the derivation cohort and 71 of 567 (13%) in the validation cohort had an urgent treatable cause. Sensitivity of the dichotomized risk score to detect an urgent treatable cause was 100.0% (95%CI 93.9-100.0%) in the validation cohort and 100.0% (95%CI 97.8-100.0%) in bacterial meningitis patients. Interpretation The risk score can be used to identify adults with CSF pleocytosis and a negative CSF Gram stain at low risk for an urgent treatable cause. PMID:23619080

Clinicians' preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries.

PubMed

Sarmadi, Roxana; Gahnberg, Lars; Gabre, Pia

2011-05-01

Clinicians handle diagnosis and treatment planning of caries in different ways, and the underlying factors leading to management of risk and choice of treatment strategies are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dentists' and dental hygienists' choices of preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries. A sample of dental records from 432 of a total of 3372 children in a Swedish county identified as at high risk of developing caries, aged 3-19 years, was randomly selected for analysis in the study. Information of importance for the therapists' choice of caries management strategies were obtained from the dental records. The results showed that therapists considered tooth brushing instruction and fluoride treatment at the clinic to be of primary importance as treatment given in 60% of the cases, respectively. Fluoride treatment at home and diet counselling were both chosen in half of the cases. Fissure sealant therapy was used in 21% of the cases, and 15% of the patients did not receive any preventive treatment at all. The results also showed that girls more often received fluoride treatment, tooth brushing instruction and oral hygiene information than boys. In the majority of the children and adolescents, several preventive measures were given. The more background factors included in the risk assessment, the more preventive measures were given. The differences between the treatments given to girls and the boys need to be further investigated. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Inclusion of populations at risk of advanced melanoma in an opportunistic targeted screening project involving general practitioners

PubMed Central

Rat, Cédric; Quereux, Gaelle; Grimault, Charlotte; Fernandez, Jérémy; Poiraud, Mickael; Gaultier, Aurélie; Chaslerie, Anicet; Pivette, Jacques; Khammari, Amir; Dreno, Brigitte; Nguyen, Jean-Michel

2016-01-01

Objective The study objective was to measure the rates of inclusion of populations at risk of advanced melanoma in a pilot targeted screening project involving general practitioners. Design This cross-sectional database study compared the inclusion rates of patients who signed inclusion in a targeted screening project with those of patients who did not, during a period in which both groups of patients consulted investigators. Setting Data were extracted from the national healthcare insurance records in western France from 11 April to 30 October 2011. Patients Patients, older than 18, considered for the data extraction had consulted one of the 78 participating GPs during the study period, and were affiliated with the national healthcare insurance. Main outcome measures Inclusion in the screening was the main outcome measure. Patients at risk of advanced melanoma were characterized by male gender, age over 50, low income, rural residence, farmer, and presence of chronic disease. Results A total of 57,279 patients consulted GPs during the inclusion period and 2711 (4.73%) were included in the targeted screening. Populations at risk of advanced melanoma were less included: men (OR = 0.67; 95%CI [0.61–0.73]; p < 0.001), older than 50 (OR = 0.67; 95%CI [0.60–0.74]; p < 0.001), low income (OR = 0.65; 95%CI [0.55–0.77]; p < 0.001), farmer (OR = 0.23; 95%CI [0.17–0.30]; p < 0.001) and presence of a chronic disease (OR = 0.87; 95%CI [0.77–0.98]; p < 0.028). Conclusion This study demonstrated inequalities in the inclusion of patients in a melanoma screening. Patients at risk of advanced cancer were screened less often. Further studies should focus on GPs ability to identify and screen these patients. Key Points Advanced melanoma is more frequently diagnosed in men, older patients and socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which leads to survival inequalities.• Despite the involvement of general practitioners, the

Factors influencing health care and service providers' and their respective "at risk" populations' adoption of the Air Quality Health Index (AQHI): a qualitative study.

PubMed

Radisic, Sally; Newbold, K Bruce

2016-03-31

The Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) provides air quality and health information such that the public can implement health protective behaviours (reducing and/or rescheduling outdoor activity) and decrease exposure to outdoor air pollution. The AQHI's health messages account for increased risk associated with "at risk" populations (i.e. young children, elderly and those with pre-existing respiratory and/or cardiovascular conditions) who rely on health care and service providers for guidance. Using Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory, our objective with respect to health care and service providers and their respective "at risk" populations was to explore: 1) level of AQHI knowledge; 2) factors influencing AQHI adoption and; 3) strategies that may increase uptake of AQHI, according to city divisions and socioeconomic status (SES). Semi-structured face-to-face interviews with health care (Registered Nurses and Certified Respiratory Educators) and service providers (Registered Early Childhood Educators) and focus groups with their respective "at risk" populations explored barriers and facilitators to AQHI adoption. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Each transcript was analyzed using an Interpretive Description approach to identify themes. Analyses were informed by Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations theory. Fifty participants (6 health care and service providers, 16 parents, 13 elderly, 15 people with existing respiratory conditions) contributed to this study. AQHI knowledge, AQHI characteristics and perceptions of air quality and health influenced AQHI adoption. AQHI knowledge centred on numerical reliance and health protective intent but varied with SES. More emphasis on AQHI relevance with respect to health benefits was required to stress relative advantage over other indices and reduce index confusion. AQHI reporting at a neighbourhood scale was recognized as addressing geographic variability and uncertainty in perceived versus measured air

Shortened version of the work ability index to identify workers at risk of long-term sickness absence.

PubMed

Schouten, Lianne S; Bültmann, Ute; Heymans, Martijn W; Joling, Catelijne I; Twisk, Jos W R; Roelen, Corné A M

2016-04-01

The Work Ability Index (WAI) identifies non-sicklisted workers at risk of future long-term sickness absence (LTSA). The WAI is a complicated instrument and inconvenient for use in large-scale surveys. We investigated whether shortened versions of the WAI identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of LTSA. Prospective study including two samples of non-sicklisted workers participating in occupational health checks between 2010 and 2012. A heterogeneous development sample (N= 2899) was used to estimate logistic regression coefficients for the complete WAI, a shortened WAI version without the list of diseases, and single-item Work Ability Score (WAS). These three instruments were calibrated for predictions of different (≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks) LTSA durations in a validation sample of non-sicklisted workers (N= 3049) employed at a steel mill, differentiating between manual (N= 1710) and non-manual (N= 1339) workers. The discriminative ability was investigated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. All three instruments under-predicted the LTSA risks in both manual and non-manual workers. The complete WAI discriminated between individuals at high and low risk of LTSA ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks in manual and non-manual workers. Risk predictions and discrimination by the shortened WAI without the list of diseases were as good as the complete WAI. The WAS showed poorer discrimination in manual and non-manual workers. The WAI without the list of diseases is a good alternative to the complete WAI to identify non-sicklisted workers at risk of future LTSA durations ≥2, ≥4 and ≥6 weeks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Haccou, Patsy

2012-01-01

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, repeated invasions and stochasticity. In addition, the use of linkage as a risk mitigation strategy has not been studied properly yet with genetic introgression models. Current genetic introgression studies fail to take repeated invasions and demographic stochasticity into account properly, and use incorrect measures of introgression risk that can be manipulated by arbitrary choices. In this study, we present proper methods for risk quantification that overcome these difficulties. We generalize a probabilistic risk measure, the so-called hazard rate of introgression, for application to introgression models with complex genetics and small natural population sizes. We illustrate the method by studying the effects of linkage and recombination on transgene introgression risk at different population sizes. PMID:23055068

Familial risk of cerebral palsy: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Tollånes, Mette C; Wilcox, Allen J; Lie, Rolv T; Moster, Dag

2014-07-15

To investigate risks of recurrence of cerebral palsy in family members with various degrees of relatedness to elucidate patterns of hereditability. Population based cohort study. Data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, linked to the Norwegian social insurance scheme to identify cases of cerebral palsy and to databases of Statistics Norway to identify relatives. 2,036,741 Norwegians born during 1967-2002, 3649 of whom had a diagnosis of cerebral palsy; 22,558 pairs of twins, 1,851,144 pairs of first degree relatives, 1,699,856 pairs of second degree relatives, and 5,165,968 pairs of third degree relatives were identified. Cerebral palsy. If one twin had cerebral palsy, the relative risk of recurrence of cerebral palsy was 15.6 (95% confidence interval 9.8 to 25) in the other twin. In families with an affected singleton child, risk was increased 9.2 (6.4 to 13)-fold in a subsequent full sibling and 3.0 (1.1 to 8.6)-fold in a half sibling. Affected parents were also at increased risk of having an affected child (6.5 (1.6 to 26)-fold). No evidence was found of differential transmission through mothers or fathers, although the study had limited power to detect such differences. For people with an affected first cousin, only weak evidence existed for an increased risk (1.5 (0.9 to 2.7)-fold). Risks in siblings or cousins were independent of sex of the index case. After exclusion of preterm births (an important risk factor for cerebral palsy), familial risks remained and were often stronger. People born into families in which someone already has cerebral palsy are themselves at elevated risk, depending on their degree of relatedness. Elevated risk may extend even to third degree relatives (first cousins). The patterns of risk suggest multifactorial inheritance, in which multiple genes interact with each other and with environmental factors. These data offer additional evidence that the underlying causes of cerebral palsy extend beyond the clinical management of

An opportunity to combat obesity lies in the at-risk college population.

PubMed

Swanson, Wendi Mortimer

2016-04-01

Approximately 70% of United States [or U.S.] adults are either overweight or obese. Obesity increases the risk of chronic disease and strains healthcare access, quality, and cost. Weight gain occurs in college students threatening optimal weight maintenance. Physical activity is fundamental to preventing disease. College students incur multiple challenges in weight management. The purpose of the article is to describe the opportunity for Advanced Practice Registered Nurses (APRNs) to intentionally become wellness promoters. The literature was reviewed and interventions developed. Guided by Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory, focus was concentrated on environmental influences through a proposed Staying Active Campaign (SAC). College students are a vulnerable population at risk for unhealthful practices. Young adulthood is a critical period of weight gain that carries risk for later adulthood. College students desire and require assistance for successful weight management. Interventions can be directed by APRNs to achieve healthful weight management and create a campus-wide culture that reinforces healthful practices. Obesity in the college population is a twofold circumstance. Action by APRNs is needed to address obesity and advocate for the prevention of future obesity. The SAC decreases the confounding college environment and supports the students' ability to be physically active while establishing personal lifelong behaviors to emulate and share with others. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Sociodemographic characteristics of mother’s population and risk of preterm birth in Chile

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a global problem in Perinatal and infant Health. Currently is gaining a growing attention. Rates of preterm birth have increased in most countries, producing a dramatic impact on public health. Factors of diverse nature have been associated to these trends. In Chile, preterm birth has increased since 90. Simultaneously, the advanced demographic transition has modified the characteristics of woman population related to maternity. The principal objective of this study is to analyze some sociodemographic characteristics of the maternal population over time, and their possible association to rates of preterm birth. The second aim is to identify groups of mothers at high risk of having a preterm child. Methods This population-based study examined all liveborn singletons in Chile from 1991 to 2008; divided in three periods. Preterm birth rates were measured as % births <37 weeks of gestation. Logistic regression assessed the risk of preterm birth associated with mother’s age, parity, and marital status, expressed as crude and adjusted odds ratios. Results Over time, rates of preterm birth increased in overall population, especially during the third period (2001–2008). In the same time, characteristics of maternal population changed: significant increase of extreme reproductive ages, significant decrease in parity and increase in mothers living without a partner. Risk of preterm birth remained higher in groups of mothers: <18 and >38 years of age; without a partner; primiparas and grandmultiparas. However, global increase in preterm birth was not explained by the modification of socio demographics characteristics of maternal population. Conclusions Some socio demographic characteristics remained associated with preterm birth over time. These associations allowed identifying five groups of mothers at higher risk to have a preterm child in the population. Increase in overall preterm birth affected all women, even those considered at �

Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study of 21,000 cases and 95,000 controls identifies new risk loci for atopic dermatitis

PubMed Central

Waage, Johannes; Baurecht, Hansjörg; Hotze, Melanie; Strachan, David P; Curtin, John A; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Tian, Chao; Takahashi, Atsushi; Esparza-Gordillo, Jorge; Alves, Alexessander Couto; Thyssen, Jacob P; den Dekker, Herman T; Ferreira, Manuel A; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Sleiman, Patrick MA; Xiao, Feng Li; Gonzalez, Juan R; Marenholz, Ingo; Kalb, Birgit; Yanes, Maria Pino; Xu, Cheng-Jian; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Groen-Blokhuis, Maria M; Venturini, Cristina; Pennell, Craig E; Barton, Sheila J; Levin, Albert M; Curjuric, Ivan; Bustamante, Mariona; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Lockett, Gabrielle A; Bacelis, Jonas; Bunyavanich, Supinda; Myers, Rachel A; Matanovic, Anja; Kumar, Ashish; Tung, Joyce Y; Hirota, Tomomitsu; Kubo, Michiaki; McArdle, Wendy L; Henderson, A J; Kemp, John P; Zheng, Jie; Smith, George Davey; Rüschendorf, Franz; Bauerfeind, Anja; Lee-Kirsch, Min Ae; Arnold, Andreas; Homuth, Georg; Schmidt, Carsten O; Mangold, Elisabeth; Cichon, Sven; Keil, Thomas; Rodríguez, Elke; Peters, Annette; Franke, Andre; Lieb, Wolfgang; Novak, Natalija; Fölster-Holst, Regina; Horikoshi, Momoko; Pekkanen, Juha; Sebert, Sylvain; Husemoen, Lise L; Grarup, Niels; de Jongste, Johan C; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Hofman, Albert; Jaddoe, Vincent WV; Pasmans, Suzanne GMA; Elbert, Niels J; Uitterlinden, André G; Marks, Guy B; Thompson, Philip J; Matheson, Melanie C; Robertson, Colin F; Ried, Janina S; Li, Jin; Zuo, Xian Bo; Zheng, Xiao Dong; Yin, Xian Yong; Sun, Liang Dan; McAleer, Maeve A; O'Regan, Grainne M; Fahy, Caoimhe MR; Campbell, Linda E; Macek, Milan; Kurek, Michael; Hu, Donglei; Eng, Celeste; Postma, Dirkje S; Feenstra, Bjarke; Geller, Frank; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Middeldorp, Christel M; Hysi, Pirro; Bataille, Veronique; Spector, Tim; Tiesler, Carla MT; Thiering, Elisabeth; Pahukasahasram, Badri; Yang, James J; Imboden, Medea; Huntsman, Scott; Vilor-Tejedor, Natàlia; Relton, Caroline L; Myhre, Ronny; Nystad, Wenche; Custovic, Adnan; Weiss, Scott T; Meyers, Deborah A; Söderhäll, Cilla; Melén, Erik; Ober, Carole; Raby, Benjamin A; Simpson, Angela; Jacobsson, Bo; Holloway, John W; Bisgaard, Hans; Sunyer, Jordi; Hensch, Nicole M Probst; Williams, L Keoki; Godfrey, Keith M; Wang, Carol A; Boomsma, Dorret I; Melbye, Mads; Koppelman, Gerard H; Jarvis, Deborah; McLean, WH Irwin; Irvine, Alan D; Zhang, Xue Jun; Hakonarson, Hakon; Gieger, Christian; Burchard, Esteban G; Martin, Nicholas G; Duijts, Liesbeth; Linneberg, Allan; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Noethen, Markus M; Lau, Susanne; Hübner, Norbert; Lee, Young-Ae; Tamari, Mayumi; Hinds, David A; Glass, Daniel; Brown, Sara J; Heinrich, Joachim; Evans, David M; Weidinger, Stephan

2015-01-01

Genetic association studies have identified 21 loci associated with atopic dermatitis risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify further susceptibility loci for this common complex skin disease, we performed a meta-analysis of >15 million genetic variants in 21,399 cases and 95,464 controls from populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry, followed by replication in 32,059 cases and 228,628 controls from 18 studies. We identified 10 novel risk loci, bringing the total number of known atopic dermatitis risk loci to 31 (with novel secondary signals at 4 of these). Notably, the new loci include candidate genes with roles in regulation of innate host defenses and T-cell function, underscoring the important contribution of (auto-)immune mechanisms to atopic dermatitis pathogenesis. PMID:26482879

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 21,000 cases and 95,000 controls identifies new risk loci for atopic dermatitis.

PubMed

Paternoster, Lavinia; Standl, Marie; Waage, Johannes; Baurecht, Hansjörg; Hotze, Melanie; Strachan, David P; Curtin, John A; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Tian, Chao; Takahashi, Atsushi; Esparza-Gordillo, Jorge; Alves, Alexessander Couto; Thyssen, Jacob P; den Dekker, Herman T; Ferreira, Manuel A; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Sleiman, Patrick Ma; Xiao, Feng Li; Gonzalez, Juan R; Marenholz, Ingo; Kalb, Birgit; Yanes, Maria Pino; Xu, Cheng-Jian; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Groen-Blokhuis, Maria M; Venturini, Cristina; Pennell, Craig E; Barton, Sheila J; Levin, Albert M; Curjuric, Ivan; Bustamante, Mariona; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Lockett, Gabrielle A; Bacelis, Jonas; Bunyavanich, Supinda; Myers, Rachel A; Matanovic, Anja; Kumar, Ashish; Tung, Joyce Y; Hirota, Tomomitsu; Kubo, Michiaki; McArdle, Wendy L; Henderson, A J; Kemp, John P; Zheng, Jie; Smith, George Davey; Rüschendorf, Franz; Bauerfeind, Anja; Lee-Kirsch, Min Ae; Arnold, Andreas; Homuth, Georg; Schmidt, Carsten O; Mangold, Elisabeth; Cichon, Sven; Keil, Thomas; Rodríguez, Elke; Peters, Annette; Franke, Andre; Lieb, Wolfgang; Novak, Natalija; Fölster-Holst, Regina; Horikoshi, Momoko; Pekkanen, Juha; Sebert, Sylvain; Husemoen, Lise L; Grarup, Niels; de Jongste, Johan C; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Hofman, Albert; Jaddoe, Vincent Wv; Pasmans, Suzanne Gma; Elbert, Niels J; Uitterlinden, André G; Marks, Guy B; Thompson, Philip J; Matheson, Melanie C; Robertson, Colin F; Ried, Janina S; Li, Jin; Zuo, Xian Bo; Zheng, Xiao Dong; Yin, Xian Yong; Sun, Liang Dan; McAleer, Maeve A; O'Regan, Grainne M; Fahy, Caoimhe Mr; Campbell, Linda E; Macek, Milan; Kurek, Michael; Hu, Donglei; Eng, Celeste; Postma, Dirkje S; Feenstra, Bjarke; Geller, Frank; Hottenga, Jouke Jan; Middeldorp, Christel M; Hysi, Pirro; Bataille, Veronique; Spector, Tim; Tiesler, Carla Mt; Thiering, Elisabeth; Pahukasahasram, Badri; Yang, James J; Imboden, Medea; Huntsman, Scott; Vilor-Tejedor, Natàlia; Relton, Caroline L; Myhre, Ronny; Nystad, Wenche; Custovic, Adnan; Weiss, Scott T; Meyers, Deborah A; Söderhäll, Cilla; Melén, Erik; Ober, Carole; Raby, Benjamin A; Simpson, Angela; Jacobsson, Bo; Holloway, John W; Bisgaard, Hans; Sunyer, Jordi; Hensch, Nicole M Probst; Williams, L Keoki; Godfrey, Keith M; Wang, Carol A; Boomsma, Dorret I; Melbye, Mads; Koppelman, Gerard H; Jarvis, Deborah; McLean, Wh Irwin; Irvine, Alan D; Zhang, Xue Jun; Hakonarson, Hakon; Gieger, Christian; Burchard, Esteban G; Martin, Nicholas G; Duijts, Liesbeth; Linneberg, Allan; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Noethen, Markus M; Lau, Susanne; Hübner, Norbert; Lee, Young-Ae; Tamari, Mayumi; Hinds, David A; Glass, Daniel; Brown, Sara J; Heinrich, Joachim; Evans, David M; Weidinger, Stephan

2015-12-01

Genetic association studies have identified 21 loci associated with atopic dermatitis risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify further susceptibility loci for this common, complex skin disease, we performed a meta-analysis of >15 million genetic variants in 21,399 cases and 95,464 controls from populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry, followed by replication in 32,059 cases and 228,628 controls from 18 studies. We identified ten new risk loci, bringing the total number of known atopic dermatitis risk loci to 31 (with new secondary signals at four of these loci). Notably, the new loci include candidate genes with roles in the regulation of innate host defenses and T cell function, underscoring the important contribution of (auto)immune mechanisms to atopic dermatitis pathogenesis.

Subgroups at high risk for ischaemic heart disease:identification and validation in 67 000 individuals from the general population

PubMed Central

Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Dyson, Greg; Haase, Christiane L; Benn, Marianne; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Sing, Charles F

2015-01-01

Background The aetiology of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is complex and is influenced by a spectrum of environmental factors and susceptibility genes. Traditional statistical modelling considers such factors to act independently in an additive manner. The Patient Rule-Induction Method (PRIM) is a multi-model building strategy for evaluating risk attributable to context-dependent gene and environmental effects. Methods PRIM was applied to 9073 participants from the prospective Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS). Gender-specific cumulative incidences were estimated for subgroups defined by categories of age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides and by 94 single nucleotide variants (SNVs).Cumulative incidences for subgroups were validated using an independently ascertained sample of 58 240 participants from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). Results In the CCHS the overall cumulative incidences were 0.17 in women and 0.21 in men. PRIM identified six and four mutually exclusive subgroups in women and men, respectively, with cumulative incidences of IHD ranging from 0.02 to 0.34. Cumulative incidences of IHD generated by PRIM in the CCHS were validated in four of the six subgroups of women and two of the four subgroups of men in the CGPS. Conclusions PRIM identified high-risk subgroups characterized by specific contexts of selected values of traditional risk factors and genetic variants. These subgroups were validated in an independently ascertained cohort study. Thus, a multi-model strategy may identify groups of individuals with substantially higher risk of IHD than the overall risk for the general population. PMID:25361584

Using risk-tracing snowball approach to increase HIV case detection among high-risk populations in Cambodia: an intervention study.

PubMed

Chhim, Srean; Macom, John; Pav, Chettana; Nim, Nirada; Yun, Phearun; Seng, Sopheap; Chhim, Kolab; Tuot, Sovannary; Yi, Siyan

2017-10-18

Early HIV diagnosis and initiation onto antiretroviral therapy may prevent ongoing spread of HIV. Risk Tracing Snowball Approach (RTSA) has been shown to be effective in detecting new HIV cases in other settings. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA in increasing the rate of newly identified HIV cases among high-risk populations. Our second objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA, as compared to the walk-in group, in increasing the number of HIV tests and early case detection. This study was conducted from April 1 to September 30, 2016 at two NGO clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Respondent driven sampling method was adapted to develop RTSA to reach high-risk populations, including key populations and the general population who have social connections with key populations. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. During the implementation period, 721 clients walked in for HIV testing (walk-in group), and all were invited to be seeds. Of the invited clients, 36.6% agreed to serve as seeds. Throughout the implementation, 6195 coupons were distributed to seeds or recruiters, and resulted in 1572 clients visiting the two clinics with coupons (RTSA group), for a coupon return rate of 25.3%. The rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was significantly lower compared to that in walk-in group. However, the highest number of newly identified HIV cases was found during the implementation period, compared to both pre- and post-implementation period. Although statistically not significant, the mean CD4 count of newly identified HIV cases detected through RTSA was almost 200 cells/mm3 higher than that in the walk-in group. Although the rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was lower than that in the walk-in group, the inclusion of RTSA in addition to the traditional walk-in method boosted new HIV case detection in the two participating clinics. A higher mean CD4

Using the community pharmacy to identify patients at risk of poor asthma control and factors which contribute to this poor control.

PubMed

Armour, Carol L; Lemay, Kate; Saini, Bandana; Reddel, Helen K; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia Z; Smith, Lorraine D; Burton, Deborah; Song, Yun Ju Christine; Alles, Marie Chehani; Stewart, Kay; Emmerton, Lynne; Krass, Ines

2011-11-01

Although asthma can be well controlled by appropriate medication delivered in an appropriate way at an appropriate time, there is evidence that management is often suboptimal. This results in poor asthma control, poor quality of life, and significant morbidity. The objective of this study was to describe a population recruited in community pharmacy identified by trained community pharmacists as being at risk for poor asthma outcomes and to identify factors associated with poor asthma control. It used a cross-sectional design in 96 pharmacies in metropolitan and regional New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Australian Capital Territory in Australia. Community pharmacists with specialized asthma training enrolled 570 patients aged ≥18 years with doctor-diagnosed asthma who were considered at risk of poor asthma outcomes and then conducted a comprehensive asthma assessment. In this assessment, asthma control was classified using a symptom and activity tool based on self-reported frequency of symptoms during the previous month and categorized as poor, fair, or good. Asthma history was discussed, and lung function and inhaler technique were also assessed by the pharmacist. Medication use/adherence was recorded from both pharmacy records and the Brief Medication Questionnaire (BMQ). The symptom and activity tool identified that 437 (77%) recruited patients had poor asthma control. Of the 570 patients, 117 (21%) smoked, 108 (19%) had an action plan, 372 (69%) used combination of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/long-acting β(2)-agonist (LABA) medications, and only 17-28% (depending on device) used their inhaler device correctly. In terms of adherence, 90% had their ICS or ICS/LABA dispensed <6 times in the previous 6 months, which is inconsistent with regular use; this low adherence was confirmed from the BMQ scores. A logistic regression model showed that patients who smoked had incorrect inhaler technique or low adherence (assessed by either dispensing history or

Strategies for conserving native salmonid populations at risk from nonnative fish invasions: tradeoffs in using barriers to upstream movement

Treesearch

Kurt D. Fausch; Bruce E. Rieman; Michael Young; Jason B. Dunham

2006-01-01

Native salmonid populations in the inland West are often restricted to small isolated habitats at risk from invasion by nonnative salmonids. However, further isolating these populations using barriers to prevent invasions can increase their extinction risk. This monograph reviews the state of knowledge about this tradeoff between invasion and isolation. We present a...

High Rates of Sex with Men among High-Risk, Heterosexually-Identified Men in Low-Income, Coastal Peru

PubMed Central

Lescano, Andres G.; Leontsini, Elli; Fernandez, Percy; Klausner, Jeffrey D.; Coates, Thomas J.; Cáceres, Carlos F.

2011-01-01

In this paper we describe sex with men, including the frequency of sex and unprotected sex, among high-risk, heterosexually-identified men in urban, low-income, coastal Peru. During 2001–2002, a random community-based sample of these men was administered an epidemiologic survey collecting sexual risk behavior data. Among the 924 high-risk heterosexually-identified men, 131 (14.2%) reported at least one male partner in the past 6 months. Of these, 113 (86.3%) reported male and female partners and among those with partners of both sexes, 84.2% and 57.0% of sex acts with female and male partners, respectively, were unprotected, (RR 1.48, 95% CI = 1.31–1.68). We observed a high rate of recent bisexual behavior compared to past studies showing frequent, unprotected sex with male and female partners. This population has substantial potential to act as a bridge population between and their male and female partners and should be addressed by prevention programs. PMID:17377837

Assessing Progress in Reducing the At-Risk Population after 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis

PubMed Central

Hooper, Pamela J.; Chu, Brian K.; Mikhailov, Alexei; Ottesen, Eric A.; Bradley, Mark

2014-01-01

Background In 1997, the World Health Assembly adopted Resolution 50.29, committing to the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, subsequently targeted for 2020. The initial estimates were that 1.2 billion people were at-risk for LF infection globally. Now, 13 years after the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) began implementing mass drug administration (MDA) against LF in 2000—during which over 4.4 billion treatments have been distributed in 56 endemic countries—it is most appropriate to estimate the impact that the MDA has had on reducing the population at risk of LF. Methodology/Principal Findings To assess GPELF progress in reducing the population at-risk for LF, we developed a model based on defining reductions in risk of infection among cohorts of treated populations following each round of MDA. The model estimates that the number of people currently at risk of infection decreased by 46% to 789 million through 2012. Conclusions/Significance Important progress has been made in the global efforts to eliminate LF, but significant scale-up is required over the next 8 years to reach the 2020 elimination goal. PMID:25411843

Genomic analyses identify hundreds of variants associated with age at menarche and support a role for puberty timing in cancer risk.

PubMed

Day, Felix R; Thompson, Deborah J; Helgason, Hannes; Chasman, Daniel I; Finucane, Hilary; Sulem, Patrick; Ruth, Katherine S; Whalen, Sean; Sarkar, Abhishek K; Albrecht, Eva; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Amini, Marzyeh; Barbieri, Caterina M; Boutin, Thibaud; Campbell, Archie; Demerath, Ellen; Giri, Ayush; He, Chunyan; Hottenga, Jouke J; Karlsson, Robert; Kolcic, Ivana; Loh, Po-Ru; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Mangino, Massimo; Marco, Brumat; McMahon, George; Medland, Sarah E; Nolte, Ilja M; Noordam, Raymond; Nutile, Teresa; Paternoster, Lavinia; Perjakova, Natalia; Porcu, Eleonora; Rose, Lynda M; Schraut, Katharina E; Segrè, Ayellet V; Smith, Albert V; Stolk, Lisette; Teumer, Alexander; Andrulis, Irene L; Bandinelli, Stefania; Beckmann, Matthias W; Benitez, Javier; Bergmann, Sven; Bochud, Murielle; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bojesen, Stig E; Bolla, Manjeet K; Brand, Judith S; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Broer, Linda; Brüning, Thomas; Buring, Julie E; Campbell, Harry; Catamo, Eulalia; Chanock, Stephen; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Corre, Tanguy; Couch, Fergus J; Cousminer, Diana L; Cox, Angela; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Davey Smith, George; de Geus, Eco J C N; de Mutsert, Renée; De Vivo, Immaculata; Dennis, Joe; Devilee, Peter; Dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dunning, Alison M; Eriksson, Johan G; Fasching, Peter A; Fernández-Rhodes, Lindsay; Ferrucci, Luigi; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Franke, Lude; Gabrielson, Marike; Gandin, Ilaria; Giles, Graham G; Grallert, Harald; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Guénel, Pascal; Hall, Per; Hallberg, Emily; Hamann, Ute; Harris, Tamara B; Hartman, Catharina A; Heiss, Gerardo; Hooning, Maartje J; Hopper, John L; Hu, Frank; Hunter, David J; Ikram, M Arfan; Im, Hae Kyung; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Joshi, Peter K; Karasik, David; Kellis, Manolis; Kutalik, Zoltan; LaChance, Genevieve; Lambrechts, Diether; Langenberg, Claudia; Launer, Lenore J; Laven, Joop S E; Lenarduzzi, Stefania; Li, Jingmei; Lind, Penelope A; Lindstrom, Sara; Liu, YongMei; Luan, Jian'an; Mägi, Reedik; Mannermaa, Arto; Mbarek, Hamdi; McCarthy, Mark I; Meisinger, Christa; Meitinger, Thomas; Menni, Cristina; Metspalu, Andres; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milani, Lili; Milne, Roger L; Montgomery, Grant W; Mulligan, Anna M; Nalls, Mike A; Navarro, Pau; Nevanlinna, Heli; Nyholt, Dale R; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; O'Mara, Tracy A; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Palotie, Aarno; Pedersen, Nancy; Peters, Annette; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D P; Pouta, Anneli; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Iffat; Ring, Susan M; Robino, Antonietta; Rosendaal, Frits R; Rudan, Igor; Rueedi, Rico; Ruggiero, Daniela; Sala, Cinzia F; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Scott, Robert A; Shah, Mitul; Sorice, Rossella; Southey, Melissa C; Sovio, Ulla; Stampfer, Meir; Steri, Maristella; Strauch, Konstantin; Tanaka, Toshiko; Tikkanen, Emmi; Timpson, Nicholas J; Traglia, Michela; Truong, Thérèse; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Uitterlinden, André G; Edwards, Digna R Velez; Vitart, Veronique; Völker, Uwe; Vollenweider, Peter; Wang, Qin; Widen, Elisabeth; van Dijk, Ko Willems; Willemsen, Gonneke; Winqvist, Robert; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H R; Zhao, Jing Hua; Zoledziewska, Magdalena; Zygmunt, Marek; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z; Boomsma, Dorret I; Ciullo, Marina; Cucca, Francesco; Esko, Tõnu; Franceschini, Nora; Gieger, Christian; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Hayward, Caroline; Kraft, Peter; Lawlor, Debbie A; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Martin, Nicholas G; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O; Nohr, Ellen A; Polasek, Ozren; Porteous, David; Price, Alkes L; Ridker, Paul M; Snieder, Harold; Spector, Tim D; Stöckl, Doris; Toniolo, Daniela; Ulivi, Sheila; Visser, Jenny A; Völzke, Henry; Wareham, Nicholas J; Wilson, James F; Spurdle, Amanda B; Thorsteindottir, Unnur; Pollard, Katherine S; Easton, Douglas F; Tung, Joyce Y; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hinds, David; Murray, Anna; Murabito, Joanne M; Stefansson, Kari; Ong, Ken K; Perry, John R B

2017-06-01

The timing of puberty is a highly polygenic childhood trait that is epidemiologically associated with various adult diseases. Using 1000 Genomes Project-imputed genotype data in up to ∼370,000 women, we identify 389 independent signals (P < 5 × 10 -8 ) for age at menarche, a milestone in female pubertal development. In Icelandic data, these signals explain ∼7.4% of the population variance in age at menarche, corresponding to ∼25% of the estimated heritability. We implicate ∼250 genes via coding variation or associated expression, demonstrating significant enrichment in neural tissues. Rare variants near the imprinted genes MKRN3 and DLK1 were identified, exhibiting large effects when paternally inherited. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest causal inverse associations, independent of body mass index (BMI), between puberty timing and risks for breast and endometrial cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In aggregate, our findings highlight the complexity of the genetic regulation of puberty timing and support causal links with cancer susceptibility.

Genomic analyses identify hundreds of variants associated with age at menarche and support a role for puberty timing in cancer risk

PubMed Central

Day, Felix R; Thompson, Deborah J; Helgason, Hannes; Chasman, Daniel I; Finucane, Hilary; Sulem, Patrick; Ruth, Katherine S; Whalen, Sean; Sarkar, Abhishek K; Albrecht, Eva; Altmaier, Elisabeth; Amini, Marzyeh; Barbieri, Caterina M; Boutin, Thibaud; Campbell, Archie; Demerath, Ellen; Giri, Ayush; He, Chunyan; Hottenga, Jouke J; Karlsson, Robert; Kolcic, Ivana; Loh, Po-Ru; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Mangino, Massimo; Marco, Brumat; McMahon, George; Medland, Sarah E; Nolte, Ilja M; Noordam, Raymond; Nutile, Teresa; Paternoster, Lavinia; Perjakova, Natalia; Porcu, Eleonora; Rose, Lynda M; Schraut, Katharina E; Segrè, Ayellet V; Smith, Albert V; Stolk, Lisette; Teumer, Alexander; Andrulis, Irene L; Bandinelli, Stefania; Beckmann, Matthias W; Benitez, Javier; Bergmann, Sven; Bochud, Murielle; Boerwinkle, Eric; Bojesen, Stig E; Bolla, Manjeet K; Brand, Judith S; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brenner, Hermann; Broer, Linda; Brüning, Thomas; Buring, Julie E; Campbell, Harry; Catamo, Eulalia; Chanock, Stephen; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Corre, Tanguy; Couch, Fergus J; Cousminer, Diana L; Cox, Angela; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Smith, George Davey; de Geus, Eco JCN; de Mutsert, Renée; De Vivo, Immaculata; Dennis, Joe; Devilee, Peter; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Dunning, Alison M; Eriksson, Johan G; Fasching, Peter A; Fernández-Rhodes, Lindsay; Ferrucci, Luigi; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Franke, Lude; Gabrielson, Marike; Gandin, Ilaria; Giles, Graham G; Grallert, Harald; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Guénel, Pascal; Hall, Per; Hallberg, Emily; Hamann, Ute; Harris, Tamara B; Hartman, Catharina A; Heiss, Gerardo; Hooning, Maartje J; Hopper, John L; Hu, Frank; Hunter, David J; Ikram, M Arfan; Im, Hae Kyung; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Joshi, Peter K; Karasik, David; Kellis, Manolis; Kutalik, Zoltan; LaChance, Genevieve; Lambrechts, Diether; Langenberg, Claudia; Launer, Lenore J; Laven, Joop S E; Lenarduzzi, Stefania; Li, Jingmei; Lind, Penelope A; Lindstrom, Sara; Liu, YongMei; Luan, Jian’an; Mägi, Reedik; Mannermaa, Arto; Mbarek, Hamdi; McCarthy, Mark I; Meisinger, Christa; Meitinger, Thomas; Menni, Cristina; Metspalu, Andres; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Milani, Lili; Milne, Roger L; Montgomery, Grant W; Mulligan, Anna M; Nalls, Mike A; Navarro, Pau; Nevanlinna, Heli; Nyholt, Dale R; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; O’Mara, Tracy A; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Palotie, Aarno; Pedersen, Nancy; Peters, Annette; Peto, Julian; Pharoah, Paul D P; Pouta, Anneli; Radice, Paolo; Rahman, Iffat; Ring, Susan M; Robino, Antonietta; Rosendaal, Frits R; Rudan, Igor; Rueedi, Rico; Ruggiero, Daniela; Sala, Cinzia F; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Scott, Robert A; Shah, Mitul; Sorice, Rossella; Southey, Melissa C; Sovio, Ulla; Stampfer, Meir; Steri, Maristella; Strauch, Konstantin; Tanaka, Toshiko; Tikkanen, Emmi; Timpson, Nicholas J; Traglia, Michela; Truong, Thérèse; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Uitterlinden, André G; Velez Edwards, Digna R; Vitart, Veronique; Völker, Uwe; Vollenweider, Peter; Wang, Qin; Widen, Elisabeth; van Dijk, Ko Willems; Willemsen, Gonneke; Winqvist, Robert; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H R; Zhao, Jing Hua; Zoledziewska, Magdalena; Zygmunt, Marek; Alizadeh, Behrooz Z; Boomsma, Dorret I; Ciullo, Marina; Cucca, Francesco; Esko, Tõnu; Franceschini, Nora; Gieger, Christian; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Hayward, Caroline; Kraft, Peter; Lawlor, Debbie A; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Martin, Nicholas G; Mook-Kanamori, Dennis O; Nohr, Ellen A; Polasek, Ozren; Porteous, David; Price, Alkes L; Ridker, Paul M; Snieder, Harold; Spector, Tim D; Stöckl, Doris; Toniolo, Daniela; Ulivi, Sheila; Visser, Jenny A; Völzke, Henry; Wareham, Nicholas J; Wilson, James F; Spurdle, Amanda B; Thorsteindottir, Unnur; Pollard, Katherine S; Easton, Douglas F; Tung, Joyce Y; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hinds, David; Murray, Anna; Murabito, Joanne M; Stefansson, Kari; Ong, Ken K; Perry, John R B

2018-01-01

The timing of puberty is a highly polygenic childhood trait that is epidemiologically associated with various adult diseases. Using 1000 Genomes Project–imputed genotype data in up to ~370,000 women, we identify 389 independent signals (P < 5 × 10−8) for age at menarche, a milestone in female pubertal development. In Icelandic data, these signals explain ~7.4% of the population variance in age at menarche, corresponding to ~25% of the estimated heritability. We implicate ~250 genes via coding variation or associated expression, demonstrating significant enrichment in neural tissues. Rare variants near the imprinted genes MKRN3 and DLK1 were identified, exhibiting large effects when paternally inherited. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest causal inverse associations, independent of body mass index (BMI), between puberty timing and risks for breast and endometrial cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In aggregate, our findings highlight the complexity of the genetic regulation of puberty timing and support causal links with cancer susceptibility. PMID:28436984

Truancy and teenage pregnancy in English adolescent girls: can we identify those at risk?

PubMed

Zhou, Yin; Puradiredja, Dewi Ismajani; Abel, Gary

2016-06-01

Truancy has been linked to risky sexual behaviours in teenagers. However, no studies in England have examined the association between truancy and teenage pregnancy, and the use of truancy as a marker of teenagers at risk of pregnancy. Using logistic regression, we investigated the association between truancy at age 15 and the likelihood of teenage pregnancy by age 19 among 3837 female teenagers who participated in the Longitudinal Study of Young People of England. We calculated the areas under the ROC curves of four models to determine how useful truancy would be as a marker of future teenage pregnancy. Truancy showed a dose-response association with teenage pregnancy after adjusting for ethnicity, educational intentions at age 16, parental socioeconomic status and family composition ('several days at a time' versus 'none', odds ratio 3.48 95% confidence interval 1.90-6.36, P < 0.001). Inclusion of risk behaviours improved the accuracy of predictive models only marginally (area under the ROC curve 0.76 full model versus 0.71 sociodemographic characteristics only). Truancy is independently associated with teenage pregnancy among English adolescent girls. However, the discriminatory powers of models were low, suggesting that interventions addressing the whole population, rather than targeting high-risk individuals, might be more effective in reducing teenage pregnancy rates. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health.

Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

2017-07-28

Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural.

Human Health Risk Assessment Applied to Rural Populations Dependent on Unregulated Drinking Water Sources: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Ford, Lorelei; Bharadwaj, Lalita; McLeod, Lianne; Waldner, Cheryl

2017-01-01

Safe drinking water is a global challenge for rural populations dependent on unregulated water. A scoping review of research on human health risk assessments (HHRA) applied to this vulnerable population may be used to improve assessments applied by government and researchers. This review aims to summarize and describe the characteristics of HHRA methods, publications, and current literature gaps of HHRA studies on rural populations dependent on unregulated or unspecified drinking water. Peer-reviewed literature was systematically searched (January 2000 to May 2014) and identified at least one drinking water source as unregulated (21%) or unspecified (79%) in 100 studies. Only 7% of reviewed studies identified a rural community dependent on unregulated drinking water. Source water and hazards most frequently cited included groundwater (67%) and chemical water hazards (82%). Most HHRAs (86%) applied deterministic methods with 14% reporting probabilistic and stochastic methods. Publications increased over time with 57% set in Asia, and 47% of studies identified at least one literature gap in the areas of research, risk management, and community exposure. HHRAs applied to rural populations dependent on unregulated water are poorly represented in the literature even though almost half of the global population is rural. PMID:28788087

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

Assessing diet in populations at risk for konzo and neurolathyrism.

PubMed

Dufour, Darna L

2011-03-01

Although both konzo and neurolathyrism are diseases associated with diet, we know surprising little about the diets of the groups at risk. The objective of this paper is to discuss methods for assessing dietary intake in populations at risk for konzo and lathyrism. These methods include weighed food records and interview based techniques like 24-h recalls and food frequency questionnaires (FFQs). Food records have the potential to provide accurate information on food quantities, and are generally the method of choice. Interview based methods provide less precise information on the quantities of foods ingested, and are subject to recall bias, but may be useful in some studies or for surveillance. Sample size needs to be adequate to account for day-to-day and seasonal variability in food intake, and differences between age and sex groups. Adequate data on the composition of foods, as actually consumed, are needed to evaluate the food intake information. This is especially important in the case of cassava and grass pea where the toxins in the diet is a function of processing. Biomarkers for assessing the cyanogen exposure from cassava-based diets are available; biomarkers for the β-ODAP exposure from grass pea diets need development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assisting At-Risk Populations. Secondary Learning Guide 11. Project Connect. Linking Self-Family-Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, Inc., Hartford, CT.

This competency-based secondary learning guide on assisting at-risk populations (dropouts and homeless people) is part of a series that are adaptations of guides developed for adult consumer and homemaking education programs. The guides provide students with experiences that help them learn to do the following: make decisions; use creative…

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

An Electronic Health Record Data-driven Model for Identifying Older Adults at Risk of Unintentional Falls

PubMed Central

Baus, Adam; Coben, Jeffrey; Zullig, Keith; Pollard, Cecil; Mullett, Charles; Taylor, Henry; Cochran, Jill; Jarrett, Traci; Long, Dustin

2017-01-01

Screening for risk of unintentional falls remains low in the primary care setting because of the time constraints of brief office visits. National studies suggest that physicians caring for older adults provide recommended fall risk screening only 30 to 37 percent of the time. Given prior success in developing methods for repurposing electronic health record data for the identification of fall risk, this study involves building a model in which electronic health record data could be applied for use in clinical decision support to bolster screening by proactively identifying patients for whom screening would be beneficial and targeting efforts specifically to those patients. The final model, consisting of priority and extended measures, demonstrates moderate discriminatory power, indicating that it could prove useful in a clinical setting for identifying patients at risk of falls. Focus group discussions reveal important contextual issues involving the use of fall-related data and provide direction for the development of health systems–level innovations for the use of electronic health record data for fall risk identification. PMID:29118679

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of birth weight threshold for macrosomia to identify fetuses at risk of shoulder dystocia among Chinese populations.

PubMed

Cheng, Yvonne K-Y; Lao, Terence T; Sahota, Daljit S; Leung, Viola K-T; Leung, Tak Y

2013-03-01

To assess the incidence of macrosomia and the influence of birth weight on shoulder dystocia risk among a cohort of Chinese women. A retrospective analysis was conducted of 80953 singleton deliveries recorded at the Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong, between 1995 and 2009. The incidences of macrosomia (birth weight ≥ 4000 g) and shoulder dystocia were assessed by birth weight; risk factors for shoulder dystocia were examined by multiple logistic regression analysis. The incidence of macrosomia was 3.4%. The overall incidence of shoulder dystocia was 0.3%; however, the incidence rose with increasing birth weight. The odds ratio (OR) for a birth weight of 4000-4199 g was 22.40, while the OR for a birth weight of 4200 g or above was 76.10. Other independent risk factors for shoulder dystocia included instrumental delivery (OR 12.11), short stature (OR 2.16), maternal diabetes mellitus (OR 1.78), and obesity (OR 1.58). Although the overall incidences of macrosomia and shoulder dystocia were low, the risk of shoulder dystocia was strongly linked to increasing birth weight. International guidelines for elective cesarean delivery in suspected cases of macrosomia may not, therefore, apply to Chinese women. Copyright © 2012 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tuberculosis testing among populations with high HIV risk in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

PubMed Central

Velasquez, Michele G.; Laniado-Laborin, Rafael; Rodwell, Timothy C.; Cerecer, Paris; Lozada, Remedios; Cuevas-Mota, Jazmine; Burgos, Jose Luis; Garfein, Richard S.

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the prevalence of prior tuberculin skin testing (TST) among populations at risk for HIV infection in Tijuana, Mexico, and to identify factors associated with TST. Methods Sex workers, injection drug users, noninjecting drug users, and homeless persons ≥ 18 years old were recruited by using targeted sampling for risk assessment interviews and serologic testing for HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify correlates of self-reported TST history. Results Of 502 participants, 38.0% reported prior TST, which was associated with previous incarceration in the United States of America [odds ratio (OR) = 13.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.37–24.33] and injection drug use (OR = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.27–3.11). Positive results on serologic tests for M. tuberculosis infection (57%) and HIV (4.2%) were not associated with a prior TST. Conclusions A history of TST was lower in HIV-positive participants even though TST is indicated for persons with HIV in Mexico. Fewer than half the individuals at high risk for HIV in this study had a history of TST; however, TST was fairly common among those individuals with a prior history of incarceration. Increased tuberculosis screening is needed for populations at risk of contracting HIV in Tijuana, particularly those outside of criminal justice settings. PMID:22910722

Tuberculosis testing among populations with high HIV risk in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico.

PubMed

Velasquez, Michele G; Laniado-Laborin, Rafael; Rodwell, Timothy C; Cerecer, Paris; Lozada, Remedios; Cuevas-Mota, Jazmine; Burgos, Jose Luis; Garfein, Richard S

2012-07-01

To assess the prevalence of prior tuberculin skin testing (TST) among populations at risk for HIV infection in Tijuana, Mexico, and to identify factors associated with TST. Sex workers, injection drug users, noninjecting drug users, and homeless persons > 18 years old were recruited by using targeted sampling for risk assessment interviews and serologic testing for HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify correlates of self-reported TST history. Of 502 participants, 38.0% reported prior TST, which was associated with previous incarceration in the United States of America [odds ratio (OR) = 13.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 7.37-24.33] and injection drug use (OR = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.27- 3.11). Positive results on serologic tests for M. tuberculosis infection (57%) and HIV (4.2%) were not associated with a prior TST. A history of TST was lower in HIV-positive participants even though TST is indicated for persons with HIV in Mexico. Fewer than half the individuals at high risk for HIV in this study had a history of TST; however, TST was fairly common among those individuals with a prior history of incarceration. Increased tuberculosis screening is needed for populations at risk of contracting HIV in Tijuana, particularly those outside of criminal justice settings.

Multiancestry association study identifies new asthma risk loci that colocalize with immune-cell enhancer marks.

PubMed

Demenais, Florence; Margaritte-Jeannin, Patricia; Barnes, Kathleen C; Cookson, William O C; Altmüller, Janine; Ang, Wei; Barr, R Graham; Beaty, Terri H; Becker, Allan B; Beilby, John; Bisgaard, Hans; Bjornsdottir, Unnur Steina; Bleecker, Eugene; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Bouzigon, Emmanuelle; Brightling, Christopher E; Brossard, Myriam; Brusselle, Guy G; Burchard, Esteban; Burkart, Kristin M; Bush, Andrew; Chan-Yeung, Moira; Chung, Kian Fan; Couto Alves, Alexessander; Curtin, John A; Custovic, Adnan; Daley, Denise; de Jongste, Johan C; Del-Rio-Navarro, Blanca E; Donohue, Kathleen M; Duijts, Liesbeth; Eng, Celeste; Eriksson, Johan G; Farrall, Martin; Fedorova, Yuliya; Feenstra, Bjarke; Ferreira, Manuel A; Freidin, Maxim B; Gajdos, Zofia; Gauderman, Jim; Gehring, Ulrike; Geller, Frank; Genuneit, Jon; Gharib, Sina A; Gilliland, Frank; Granell, Raquel; Graves, Penelope E; Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Haahtela, Tari; Heckbert, Susan R; Heederik, Dick; Heinrich, Joachim; Heliövaara, Markku; Henderson, John; Himes, Blanca E; Hirose, Hiroshi; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Hofman, Albert; Holt, Patrick; Hottenga, Jouke; Hudson, Thomas J; Hui, Jennie; Imboden, Medea; Ivanov, Vladimir; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; James, Alan; Janson, Christer; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Jarvis, Deborah; Jones, Graham; Jonsdottir, Ingileif; Jousilahti, Pekka; Kabesch, Michael; Kähönen, Mika; Kantor, David B; Karunas, Alexandra S; Khusnutdinova, Elza; Koppelman, Gerard H; Kozyrskyj, Anita L; Kreiner, Eskil; Kubo, Michiaki; Kumar, Rajesh; Kumar, Ashish; Kuokkanen, Mikko; Lahousse, Lies; Laitinen, Tarja; Laprise, Catherine; Lathrop, Mark; Lau, Susanne; Lee, Young-Ae; Lehtimäki, Terho; Letort, Sébastien; Levin, Albert M; Li, Guo; Liang, Liming; Loehr, Laura R; London, Stephanie J; Loth, Daan W; Manichaikul, Ani; Marenholz, Ingo; Martinez, Fernando J; Matheson, Melanie C; Mathias, Rasika A; Matsumoto, Kenji; Mbarek, Hamdi; McArdle, Wendy L; Melbye, Mads; Melén, Erik; Meyers, Deborah; Michel, Sven; Mohamdi, Hamida; Musk, Arthur W; Myers, Rachel A; Nieuwenhuis, Maartje A E; Noguchi, Emiko; O'Connor, George T; Ogorodova, Ludmila M; Palmer, Cameron D; Palotie, Aarno; Park, Julie E; Pennell, Craig E; Pershagen, Göran; Polonikov, Alexey; Postma, Dirkje S; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Puzyrev, Valery P; Raby, Benjamin A; Raitakari, Olli T; Ramasamy, Adaikalavan; Rich, Stephen S; Robertson, Colin F; Romieu, Isabelle; Salam, Muhammad T; Salomaa, Veikko; Schlünssen, Vivi; Scott, Robert; Selivanova, Polina A; Sigsgaard, Torben; Simpson, Angela; Siroux, Valérie; Smith, Lewis J; Solodilova, Maria; Standl, Marie; Stefansson, Kari; Strachan, David P; Stricker, Bruno H; Takahashi, Atsushi; Thompson, Philip J; Thorleifsson, Gudmar; Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur; Tiesler, Carla M T; Torgerson, Dara G; Tsunoda, Tatsuhiko; Uitterlinden, André G; van der Valk, Ralf J P; Vaysse, Amaury; Vedantam, Sailaja; von Berg, Andrea; von Mutius, Erika; Vonk, Judith M; Waage, Johannes; Wareham, Nick J; Weiss, Scott T; White, Wendy B; Wickman, Magnus; Widén, Elisabeth; Willemsen, Gonneke; Williams, L Keoki; Wouters, Inge M; Yang, James J; Zhao, Jing Hua; Moffatt, Miriam F; Ober, Carole; Nicolae, Dan L

2018-01-01

We examined common variation in asthma risk by conducting a meta-analysis of worldwide asthma genome-wide association studies (23,948 asthma cases, 118,538 controls) of individuals from ethnically diverse populations. We identified five new asthma loci, found two new associations at two known asthma loci, established asthma associations at two loci previously implicated in the comorbidity of asthma plus hay fever, and confirmed nine known loci. Investigation of pleiotropy showed large overlaps in genetic variants with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The enrichment in enhancer marks at asthma risk loci, especially in immune cells, suggested a major role of these loci in the regulation of immunologically related mechanisms.

Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

PubMed

Carroll, Roberta

2016-01-01

An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment. © 2016 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Hazardous drinking and military community functioning: identifying mediating risk factors.

PubMed

Foran, Heather M; Heyman, Richard E; Slep, Amy M Smith

2011-08-01

Hazardous drinking is a serious societal concern in military populations. Efforts to reduce hazardous drinking among military personnel have been limited in effectiveness. There is a need for a deeper understanding of how community-based prevention models apply to hazardous drinking in the military. Community-wide prevention efforts may be most effective in targeting community functioning (e.g., support from formal agencies, community cohesion) that impacts hazardous drinking via other proximal risk factors. The goal of the current study is to inform community-wide prevention efforts by testing a model of community functioning and mediating risk factors of hazardous drinking among active duty U.S. Air Force personnel. A large, representative survey sample of U.S. Air Force active duty members (N = 52,780) was collected at 82 bases worldwide. Hazardous drinking was assessed with the widely used Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (Saunders, Aasland, Babor, de la Fuente, & Grant, 1993). A variety of individual, family, and community measures were also assessed. Structural equation modeling was used to test a hypothesized model of community functioning, mediating risk factors and hazardous drinking. Depressive symptoms, perceived financial stress, and satisfaction with the U.S. Air Force were identified as significant mediators of the link between community functioning and hazardous drinking for men and women. Relationship satisfaction was also identified as a mediator for men. These results provide a framework for further community prevention research and suggest that prevention efforts geared at increasing aspects of community functioning (e.g., the U.S. Air Force Community Capacity model) may indirectly lead to reductions in hazardous drinking through other proximal risk factors.

Use of Neuroanatomical Pattern Classification to Identify Subjects in At-Risk Mental States of Psychosis and Predict Disease Transition

PubMed Central

Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Meisenzahl, Eva M.; Davatzikos, Christos; Bottlender, Ronald; Frodl, Thomas; Scheuerecker, Johanna; Schmitt, Gisela; Zetzsche, Thomas; Decker, Petra; Reiser, Maximilian; Möller, Hans-Jürgen; Gaser, Christian

2014-01-01

Context Identification of individuals at high risk of developing psychosis has relied on prodromal symptomatology. Recently, machine learning algorithms have been successfully used for magnetic resonance imaging–based diagnostic classification of neuropsychiatric patient populations. Objective To determine whether multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification facilitates identification of individuals in different at-risk mental states (ARMS) of psychosis and enables the prediction of disease transition at the individual level. Design Multivariate neuroanatomical pattern classification was performed on the structural magnetic resonance imaging data of individuals in early or late ARMS vs healthy controls (HCs). The predictive power of the method was then evaluated by categorizing the baseline imaging data of individuals with transition to psychosis vs those without transition vs HCs after 4 years of clinical follow-up. Classification generalizability was estimated by cross-validation and by categorizing an independent cohort of 45 new HCs. Setting Departments of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich, Germany. Participants The first classification analysis included 20 early and 25 late at-risk individuals and 25 matched HCs. The second analysis consisted of 15 individuals with transition, 18 without transition, and 17 matched HCs. Main Outcome Measures Specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of classification. Results The 3-group, cross-validated classification accuracies of the first analysis were 86% (HCs vs the rest), 91% (early at-risk individuals vs the rest), and 86% (late at-risk individuals vs the rest). The accuracies in the second analysis were 90% (HCs vs the rest), 88% (individuals with transition vs the rest), and 86% (individuals without transition vs the rest). Independent HCs were correctly classified in 96% (first analysis) and 93% (second analysis) of cases. Conclusions Different ARMSs and their clinical outcomes

Stroke risk after nonstroke emergency department dizziness presentations: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Kerber, Kevin A; Zahuranec, Darin B; Brown, Devin L; Meurer, William J; Burke, James F; Smith, Melinda A; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Fendrick, A Mark; McLaughlin, Thomas; Morgenstern, Lewis B

2014-06-01

Acute stroke is a serious concern in emergency department (ED) dizziness presentations. Prior studies, however, suggest that stroke is actually an unlikely cause of these presentations. Lacking are data on short- and long-term follow-up from population-based studies to establish stroke risk after presumed nonstroke ED dizziness presentations. From May 8, 2011 to May 7, 2012, patients ≥45 years of age presenting to EDs in Nueces County, Texas, with dizziness, vertigo, or imbalance were identified, excluding those with stroke as the initial diagnosis. Stroke events after the ED presentation up to October 2, 2012 were determined using the BASIC (Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi) study, which uses rigorous surveillance and neurologist validation. Cumulative stroke risk was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. A total of 1,245 patients were followed for a median of 347 days (interquartile range [IQR] = 230-436 days). Median age was 61.9 years (IQR = 53.8-74.0 years). After the ED visit, 15 patients (1.2%) had a stroke. Stroke risk was 0.48% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.22-1.07%) at 2 days, 0.48% (95% CI = 0.22-1.07%) at 7 days, 0.56% (95% CI = 0.27-1.18%) at 30 days, 0.56% (95% CI = 0.27-1.18%) at 90 days, and 1.42% (95% CI = 0.85-2.36%) at 12 months. Using rigorous case ascertainment and outcome assessment in a population-based design, we found that the risk of stroke after presumed nonstroke ED dizziness presentations is very low, supporting a nonstroke etiology to the overwhelming majority of original events. High-risk subgroups likely exist, however, because most of the 90-day stroke risk occurred within 2 days. Vascular risk stratification was insufficient to identify these cases. © 2014 American Neurological Association.

Stroke Risk After Non-Stroke ED Dizziness Presentations: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Kerber, Kevin A.; Zahuranec, Darin B.; Brown, Devin L.; Meurer, William J.; Burke, James F.; Smith, Melinda A.; Lisabeth, Lynda D.; Fendrick, A. Mark; McLaughlin, Thomas; Morgenstern, Lewis B.

2014-01-01

Objective Acute stroke is a serious concern in Emergency Department (ED) dizziness presentations. Prior studies, however, suggest that stroke is actually an unlikely cause of these presentations. Lacking are data on short- and long-term follow-up from population-based studies to establish stroke risk after presumed non-stroke ED dizziness presentations. Methods From 5/8/2011 to 5/7/2012, patients ≥ 45 years of age presenting to EDs in Nueces County, Texas, with dizziness, vertigo, or imbalance were identified, excluding those with stroke as the initial diagnosis. Stroke events after the ED presentation up to 10/2/2012 were determined using the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) study, which uses rigorous surveillance and neurologist validation. Cumulative stroke risk was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results 1,245 patients were followed for a median of 347 days (IQR 230- 436 days). Median age was 61.9 years (IQR, 53.8-74.0 years). After the ED visit, fifteen patients (1.2%) had a stroke. Stroke risk was 0.48% (95% CI, 0.22%-1.07%) at 2 days; 0.48% (95% CI, 0.22%-1.07%) at 7 days; 0.56% (95% CI, 0.27%-1.18%) at 30 days; 0.56% (95% CI, 0.27%-1.18%) at 90 days; and 1.42% (95% CI, 0.85%-2.36%) at 12 months. Interpretation Using rigorous case ascertainment and outcome assessment in a population-based design, we found that the risk of stroke after presumed non-stroke ED dizziness presentations is very low, supporting a non-stroke etiology to the overwhelming majority of original events. High-risk subgroups likely exist, however, because most of the 90-day stroke risk occurred within 2-days. Vascular risk stratification was insufficient to identify these cases. PMID:24788511

Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome in Nigeria: A multicentre observational study.

PubMed

Desalu, Olufemi O; Onyedum, Cajetan C; Adeoti, Adekunle O; Fadare, Joseph O; Sanya, Emmanuel O; Fawale, Michael B; Bello, Hamzat A

2017-06-01

Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with significant health consequences. A significant proportion of hospitalized patients at risk for obstructive sleep apnoea were never identified and referred for polysomnography for diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in tertiary hospitals in Nigeria. This was a multicentre observational study of adult patients hospitalized in three selected hospitals from 15th January to 17th March 2015. Berlin questionnaire and Epworth sleepiness scale were used to assess for obstructive sleep apnoea risk and excessive daytime sleepiness respectively. Additional questions on traditional risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea were also obtained. Nine hundred and twenty-six patients were recruited into the study. Respondents' mean age was 44.3 years ± 15.2years, 486 (52.5%) were females and 556 (60.0%) had one or more medical co-morbidity and none of the patients had a previous diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea. Factors that were independently associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea include systemic hypertension(aOR-10.33;95%: CI 6.42-16.61), obesity(aOR-7.87;95% CI: 4.33-14.29); excessive daytime sleepiness (aOR-3.77;95% CI :2.28-6.22), tobacco smoking (aOR-2.99;95% CI: 1.76-5.07), snoring in a first-degree relative (aOR-1.83;95% CI: 1.19-2.81); and the use of sedative (aOR-1.82;95% CI: 1.06-3.15). This study shows that patients with systemic hypertension, obesity, excessive daytime sleepiness, history of smoking, snoring in a first-degree relative and use of sedatives are at high risk of obstructive sleep apnoea. None of the patients at high risk had a previous diagnosis of sleep apnoea by a physician, highlighting the diagnostic challenges of this condition. The results of this study will assist health care professionals in early identification of individuals at risk of

Beta-Blockers for Exams Identify Students at High Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity.

PubMed

Butt, Jawad H; Dalsgaard, Søren; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Kruuse, Christina; Fosbøl, Emil L

2017-04-01

Beta-blockers relieve the autonomic symptoms of exam-related anxiety and may be beneficial in exam-related and performance anxiety, but knowledge on related psychiatric outcomes is unknown. We hypothesized that beta-blocker therapy for exam-related anxiety identifies young students at risk of later psychiatric events. Using Danish nationwide administrative registries, we studied healthy students aged 14-30 years (1996-2012) with a first-time claimed prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period (May-June); students who were prescribed a beta-blocker for medical reasons were excluded. We matched these students on age, sex, and time of year to healthy and study active controls with no use of beta-blockers. Risk of incident use of antidepressants, incident use of other psychotropic medications, and suicide attempts was examined by cumulative incidence curves for unadjusted associations and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard analyses for adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). We identified 12,147 healthy students with exam-related beta-blocker use and 12,147 matched healthy students with no current or prior use of beta-blockers (median age, 19 years; 80.3% women). Among all healthy students, 0.14% had a first-time prescription for a beta-blocker during the exam period with the highest proportion among students aged 19 years (0.39%). Eighty-one percent of the students filled only that single prescription for a beta-blocker during follow-up. During follow-up, 2225 (18.3%) beta-blocker users and 1400 (11.5%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed an antidepressant (p < 0.0001); 1225 (10.1%) beta-blocker users and 658 (5.4%) nonbeta-blocker users were prescribed a psychotropic drug (p < 0.0001); and 16 (0.13%) beta-blocker users and 6 (0.05%) nonbeta-blocker users attempted suicide (p = 0.03). Exam-related beta-blocker use was associated with an increased risk of antidepressant use (adjusted HRs, 1.68 [95% confidence intervals (CIs), 1

Exome sequencing identifies rare LDLR and APOA5 alleles conferring risk for myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Do, Ron; Stitziel, Nathan O; Won, Hong-Hee; Jørgensen, Anders Berg; Duga, Stefano; Angelica Merlini, Pier; Kiezun, Adam; Farrall, Martin; Goel, Anuj; Zuk, Or; Guella, Illaria; Asselta, Rosanna; Lange, Leslie A; Peloso, Gina M; Auer, Paul L; Girelli, Domenico; Martinelli, Nicola; Farlow, Deborah N; DePristo, Mark A; Roberts, Robert; Stewart, Alexander F R; Saleheen, Danish; Danesh, John; Epstein, Stephen E; Sivapalaratnam, Suthesh; Hovingh, G Kees; Kastelein, John J; Samani, Nilesh J; Schunkert, Heribert; Erdmann, Jeanette; Shah, Svati H; Kraus, William E; Davies, Robert; Nikpay, Majid; Johansen, Christopher T; Wang, Jian; Hegele, Robert A; Hechter, Eliana; Marz, Winfried; Kleber, Marcus E; Huang, Jie; Johnson, Andrew D; Li, Mingyao; Burke, Greg L; Gross, Myron; Liu, Yongmei; Assimes, Themistocles L; Heiss, Gerardo; Lange, Ethan M; Folsom, Aaron R; Taylor, Herman A; Olivieri, Oliviero; Hamsten, Anders; Clarke, Robert; Reilly, Dermot F; Yin, Wu; Rivas, Manuel A; Donnelly, Peter; Rossouw, Jacques E; Psaty, Bruce M; Herrington, David M; Wilson, James G; Rich, Stephen S; Bamshad, Michael J; Tracy, Russell P; Cupples, L Adrienne; Rader, Daniel J; Reilly, Muredach P; Spertus, John A; Cresci, Sharon; Hartiala, Jaana; Tang, W H Wilson; Hazen, Stanley L; Allayee, Hooman; Reiner, Alex P; Carlson, Christopher S; Kooperberg, Charles; Jackson, Rebecca D; Boerwinkle, Eric; Lander, Eric S; Schwartz, Stephen M; Siscovick, David S; McPherson, Ruth; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne; Abecasis, Goncalo R; Watkins, Hugh; Nickerson, Deborah A; Ardissino, Diego; Sunyaev, Shamil R; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Altshuler, David; Gabriel, Stacey; Kathiresan, Sekar

2015-02-05

Myocardial infarction (MI), a leading cause of death around the world, displays a complex pattern of inheritance. When MI occurs early in life, genetic inheritance is a major component to risk. Previously, rare mutations in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) genes have been shown to contribute to MI risk in individual families, whereas common variants at more than 45 loci have been associated with MI risk in the population. Here we evaluate how rare mutations contribute to early-onset MI risk in the population. We sequenced the protein-coding regions of 9,793 genomes from patients with MI at an early age (≤50 years in males and ≤60 years in females) along with MI-free controls. We identified two genes in which rare coding-sequence mutations were more frequent in MI cases versus controls at exome-wide significance. At low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 4.2-fold increased risk for MI; carriers of null alleles at LDLR were at even higher risk (13-fold difference). Approximately 2% of early MI cases harbour a rare, damaging mutation in LDLR; this estimate is similar to one made more than 40 years ago using an analysis of total cholesterol. Among controls, about 1 in 217 carried an LDLR coding-sequence mutation and had plasma LDL cholesterol > 190 mg dl(-1). At apolipoprotein A-V (APOA5), carriers of rare non-synonymous mutations were at 2.2-fold increased risk for MI. When compared with non-carriers, LDLR mutation carriers had higher plasma LDL cholesterol, whereas APOA5 mutation carriers had higher plasma triglycerides. Recent evidence has connected MI risk with coding-sequence mutations at two genes functionally related to APOA5, namely lipoprotein lipase and apolipoprotein C-III (refs 18, 19). Combined, these observations suggest that, as well as LDL cholesterol, disordered metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins contributes to MI risk.

Identifying Patients at Higher Risk of Prolonged Air Leak After Lung Resection.

PubMed

Gilbert, Sebastien; Maghera, Sonam; Seely, Andrew J; Maziak, Donna E; Shamji, Farid M; Sundaresan, Sudhir R; Villeneuve, Patrick J

2016-11-01

Predictive models of prolonged air leak have relied on information not always available preoperatively (eg, extent of resection, pleural adhesions). Our objective was to construct a model to identify patients at increased risk of prolonged air leak using preoperative factors exclusively. From 2012 to 2014, data on consecutive patients undergoing pulmonary resection were collected prospectively. Prolonged air leak was defined as lasting longer than 7 days and requiring hospitalization. Factors associated with the primary outcome (p < 0.2) were included in a multivariate model. Regression coefficients were used to develop a weighted risk score for prolonged air leak. Of 225 patients, 8% (18/225) experienced a prolonged air leak. Male gender (p = 0.08), smoking history (p = 0.03), body mass index (BMI) 25 or below (p < 0.01), Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnea score above 1 (p = 0.06), and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide below 80% (Dlco) (p = 0.01) were selected for inclusion in the final model. Weighted scores were male gender (1 point), BMI 25 or below (0.5 point), smoker (2 points), Dlco% below 80% (2 points), and MRC dyspnea score above 1 (1 point). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7 to 0.9]. An air leak score above 4 points offered the best combination of sensitivity (83% [95% CI = 58 to 96]) and specificity (65% [95% CI = 58 to 71]). A subgroup of lung resection patients at higher risk for a prolonged air leak can be effectively identified with the use of widely available, preoperative factors. The proposed scoring system is simple, is clinically relevant to the informed consent, and allows preoperative patient selection for interventions to reduce the risk of prolonged air leak. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acute kidney injury subphenotypes based on creatinine trajectory identifies patients at increased risk of death.

PubMed

Bhatraju, Pavan K; Mukherjee, Paramita; Robinson-Cohen, Cassianne; O'Keefe, Grant E; Frank, Angela J; Christie, Jason D; Meyer, Nuala J; Liu, Kathleen D; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Christiani, David C; Himmelfarb, Jonathan; Wurfel, Mark M

2016-11-17

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. AKI is highly heterogeneous, with variable links to poor outcomes. Current approaches to classify AKI severity and identify patients at highest risk for poor outcomes focus on the maximum change in serum creatinine (SCr) values. However, these scores are hampered by the need for a reliable baseline SCr value and the absence of a component differentiating transient from persistent rises in SCr. We hypothesized that identification of resolving or nonresolving AKI subphenotypes based on the early trajectory of SCr values in the ICU would better differentiate patients at risk of hospital mortality. We performed a secondary analysis of two prospective studies of ICU patients admitted to a trauma ICU (group 1; n = 1914) or general medical-surgical ICUs (group 2; n = 1867). In group 1, we tested definitions for resolving and nonresolving AKI subphenotypes and selected the definitions resulting in subphenotypes with the greatest separation in risk of death relative to non-AKI controls. We applied this definition to group 2 and tested whether the subphenotypes were independently associated with hospital mortality after adjustment for AKI severity. AKI occurred in 46% and 69% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively. In group 1, a resolving AKI subphenotype (defined as a decrease in SCr of 0.3 mg/dl or 25% from maximum in the first 72 h of study enrollment) was associated with a low risk of death. A nonresolving AKI subphenotype (defined as all AKI cases not meeting the "resolving" definition) was associated with a high risk of death. In group 2, the resolving AKI subphenotype was not associated with increased mortality (relative risk [RR] 0.86, 95% CI 0.63-1.17), whereas the nonresolving AKI subphenotype was associated with higher mortality (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15-2.44) even after adjustment for AKI severity stage. The trajectory of SCr levels identifies AKI subphenotypes with different

Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

PubMed

Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

2018-01-30

Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building

NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene

MedlinePlus

... News From NIH NIH Researchers Identify OCD Risk Gene Past Issues / Summer 2006 Table of Contents For ... and Alcoholism (NIAAA) have identified a previously unknown gene variant that doubles an individual's risk for obsessive- ...

Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

2014-03-01

(1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial Distribution of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Chum Phaung District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand.

PubMed

Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Loyd, Ryan A; Matrakool, Likit; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Eaksanti, Thawatchai; Phatisena, Tanida; Kujapun, Jirawoot; Norkaew, Jun; Joosiri, Apinya; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious health problem in Thailand, particularly in northeastern and northern regions, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of CCA remains to be determined. A database for the population at risk is required for monitoring, surveillance and organization of home health care. This study aim was to geo-visually display the distribution of CCA in northeast Thailand, using a geographic information system and Google Earth. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 9 sub-districts and 133 villages in Chum Phuang district, Nakhon Ratchasima province during June and October 2015. Data on demography, and the population at risk for CCA were combined with the points of villages, sub-district boundaries, district boundaries, and points of hospitals in districts, then fed into a geographical information system. After the conversion, all of the data were imported into Google Earth for geo-visualization. A total of 11,960 from 83,096 population were included in this study. Females and male were 52.5%, and 47.8%, the age group 41-50 years old 33.3%. Individual risk for CCA was identifed and classified by using the Korat CCA verbal screening test as low (92.8%), followed by high risk (6.74%), and no (0.49%), respectively. Gender (X2-test=1143.63, p-value= 0.001), age group (X2-test==211.36, p-value=0.0001), and sub-district (X2-test=1471.858, p-value=0.0001) were significantly associated with CCA risk. Spatial distribution of the population at risk for CCA in Chum Phuang district was viewed with Google Earth. Geo-visual display followed Layer 1: District, Layer 2: Sub-district, Layer 3: Number of low risk in village, Layer 4: Number of high risk in village, and Layer 5: Hospital in Chum Phuang District and their related catchment areas. We present the first risk geo-visual display of CCA in this rural community, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Risk appears to be strongly associated with gender

Genome-wide association analysis identifies a meningioma risk locus at 11p15.5.

PubMed

Claus, Elizabeth B; Cornish, Alex J; Broderick, Peter; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Dobbins, Sara E; Holroyd, Amy; Calvocoressi, Lisa; Lu, Lingeng; Hansen, Helen M; Smirnov, Ivan; Walsh, Kyle M; Schramm, Johannes; Hoffmann, Per; Nöthen, Markus M; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Swerdlow, Anthony; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Johansen, Christoffer; Simon, Matthias; Bondy, Melissa; Wrensch, Margaret; Houlston, Richard; Wiemels, Joseph L

2018-05-12

Meningioma are adult brain tumors originating in the meningeal coverings of the brain and spinal cord, with significant heritable basis. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified only a single risk locus for meningioma, at 10p12.31. To identify a susceptibility locus for meningioma, we conducted a meta-analysis of two GWAS, imputed using a merged reference panel of 1,000 Genomes and UK10K data, with validation in two independent sample series totaling 2,138 cases and 12,081 controls. We identified a new susceptibility locus for meningioma at 11p15.5 (rs2686876, odds ratio = 1.44, P = 9.86 × 10-9). A number of genes localize to the region of linkage disequilibrium encompassing rs2686876, including RIC8A, which plays a central role in the development of neural crest-derived structures, such as the meninges. This finding advances our understanding of the genetic basis of meningioma development and provides additional support for a polygenic model of meningioma.

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

Sexual Risk Behavior Among Youth With Bipolar Disorder: Identifying Demographic and Clinical Risk Factors.

PubMed

Krantz, Megan; Goldstein, Tina; Rooks, Brian; Merranko, John; Liao, Fangzi; Gill, Mary Kay; Diler, Rasim; Hafeman, Danella; Ryan, Neal; Goldstein, Benjamin; Yen, Shirley; Hower, Heather; Hunt, Jeffrey; Keller, Martin; Strober, Michael; Axelson, David; Birmaher, Boris

2018-02-01

This study aims to document rates of sexual activity among youth with bipolar spectrum disorder (BD) and to examine demographic and clinical factors associated with first sexual activity and sexual risk behavior during follow-up. The sample was drawn from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study of 413 youth 7 to 17 years at baseline who met criteria for bipolar spectrum disorder according to the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children. Psychiatric symptoms during follow-up were assessed using the Adolescent Longitudinal Interview Follow-Up Evaluation (ALIFE). Sexual behavior and level of sexual risk (e.g., unprotected sex, multiple partners, and/or partners with known sexually transmitted infections) were assessed by trained evaluators using the ALIFE Psychosocial Functioning Scale. Analyses were conducted in relation to first sexual behavior during follow-up and then to subsequent sexual behaviors (mean 9.7 years, standard deviation 3.2). Sexually active COBY youth (n = 292 of 413; 71%) were more likely females, using substances, and not living with both parents. Consistent with findings among healthy youth, earlier first sexual activity in the sample was significantly associated with low socioeconomic status, female sex, comorbid disruptive behavior disorder, and substance use. As with healthy youth, sexual risk behavior during follow-up was significantly associated with non-Caucasian race, low socioeconomic status, substance use, and history of sexual abuse. Of those COBY youth who were sexually active, 11% reported sexual assault or abuse, 36% reported becoming pregnant (or the significant other becoming pregnant), and 15% reported having at least 1 abortion (or the significant other having an abortion) during follow-up. Hypomanic symptoms during follow-up were temporally associated with the greatest risk for sexual risk behavior. Demographic and clinical factors could help identify youth with bipolar spectrum

Screening in Primary Care: What Is the Best Way to Identify At-Risk Youth for Substance Use?

PubMed

D'Amico, Elizabeth J; Parast, Layla; Meredith, Lisa S; Ewing, Brett A; Shadel, William G; Stein, Bradley D

2016-12-01

It is important to improve primary care providers' capability to identify youth at risk for alcohol and other drug use. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition criteria to compare screeners for youth for both alcohol and marijuana, given that these are the most frequently used substances by this age group. We compared the psychometric performance of 4 screeners: the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism Screening Guide (NIAAA SG), the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, the Car-Relax-Alone-Forget-Family and Friends-Trouble (CRAFFT) screener, and the Personal Experience Screening Questionnaire Problem Severity Scale (PESQ-PS) in identifying alcohol and marijuana use outcomes. Youth age 12 through 18 (N = 1573; 27% black, 51% Hispanic) were screened with the NIAAA SG, followed by a Web survey that included the other screeners and outcomes. Sensitivity for alcohol outcomes indicated that the NIAAA SG (0.87) did not perform as well as the CRAFFT (0.97) or PESQ-PS (0.97) screeners but performed better than the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (0.70). The pattern for sensitivity across screeners for marijuana outcomes was similar. An important tradeoff in primary care settings is precision versus practicality. Because of brevity and focus on frequency of drinking, the NIAAA SG offers ease of administration and is good at identifying youth with probably problematic drinking levels. The PESQ-PS and the CRAFFT correctly identify more at-risk youth for alcohol and marijuana than the NIAAA SG. Future work is needed to elucidate how to efficiently and accurately identify at-risk youth in the primary care setting, including determining the best cutoff points to use to increase sensitivity. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Higher risk for thyroid diseases in physicians than in the general population: a Taiwan nationwide population-based secondary analysis study.

PubMed

Chen, T-Y; Hsu, C-C; Feng, I-J; Wang, J-J; Su, S-B; Guo, H-R; Huang, C-C; Lin, H-J

2017-03-01

Physicians have high work stress, responsibility for night shifts and chances of exposure to medical radiation, which may increase the risk for thyroid diseases. We conducted this study to assess the risk for thyroid diseases in physicians, which remain unclear. We used a secondary analysis of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for this study. After excluding thyroid diseases occurring before 2006 and residents, physicians and general population were identified by matching with age and sex in 2009 in a 1:2 ratio. The risk for thyroid diseases was compared between the physicians and general population and among physicians by tracing their medical histories between 2006 and 2012. In total, 28,649 physicians and 57,298 general population were identified. Physicians had a higher risk for overall thyroid diseases than the general population [odds ratio (OR): 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.47], including individual thyroid disease: thyroid cancer (OR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.22-2.95), hypothyroidism (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.23-2.18) and thyroiditis (OR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.00-2.19). We showed that physicians had a significantly higher risk for thyroid diseases than the general population. This reminds us to pay more attention to thyroid diseases in physicians. Further studies about the underlying mechanisms are warranted. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Simple Test of Manual Dexterity Can Help to Identify Persons at High Risk for Neurodegenerative Diseases in the Community.

PubMed

Darweesh, Sirwan K L; Wolters, Frank J; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; Koudstaal, Peter J; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-01-01

Early identification of individuals at high risk of developing neurodegenerative diseases is essential for timely preventive intervention. However, simple methods that can be used for risk assessment in general practice are lacking. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used the Purdue Pegboard Test (PPT) to assess manual dexterity in 4,856 persons (median age 70 years, 58% women) free of parkinsonism and dementia between 2000 and 2004. We followed these persons until January 1, 2012 for the onset of neurodegenerative diseases (defined as first diagnosis of parkinsonism or dementia). We determined the association of PPT scores with incident neurodegenerative disease, adjusting for age, sex, study cohort, level of education, smoking, preferred hand, parental history, memory complaints, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Furthermore, we determined the incremental predictive value of PPT, expressed as change in risk classification and discrimination. During follow-up (median 9.2 years), 277 participants were diagnosed with a neurodegenerative disease (227 with dementia and 50 with parkinsonism). Lower PPT scores were associated with higher risk of incident neurodegenerative diseases (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.41) and improved discrimination of incident neurodegenerative diseases. We also observed significant associations of PPT scores separately with incident dementia (HR = 1.25; 95% CI: 1.14-1.39]) and incident parkinsonism (HR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.19-1.67). A rapid, nonlaboratory test of manual dexterity may help to identify persons at high risk for neurodegenerative diseases. This highlights the importance of motor function in the preclinical phase of both dementia and parkinsonism and may aid in selecting individuals for refined screening and neuroprotective trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e

Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa.

PubMed

Adeola, A M; Botai, O J; Olwoch, J M; Rautenbach, C J de W; Adisa, O M; Taiwo, O J; Kalumba, A M

2016-05-01

Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high-risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria. r software was used to statistically analyse data. Using remote sensing technology, a Landsat 8 image of 4th October 2015 was classified using object-based classification and a 5-m resolution. Spot height data were used to generate a digital elevation model of the area. A total of 60 718 malaria cases were notified across 48 health facilities in Nkomazi municipality between January 1997 and August 2015. Malaria incidence was highly associated with irrigated land (P = 0.001), water body (P = 0.011) and altitude ≤400 m (P = 0.001). The multivariate model showed that with 10% increase in the extent of irrigated areas, malaria risk increased by almost 39% in the entire study area and by almost 44% in the 2-km buffer zone of selected villages. Malaria incidence is more pronounced in the economically active population aged 15-64 and in males. Both incidence and case fatality rate drastically declined over the study period. A predictive model based on environmental factors would be useful in the effort towards malaria elimination by fostering appropriate targeting of control measures and allocating of resources. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying risk event in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahyuni, H. C.; Vanany, I.; Ciptomulyono, U.

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to identify risk issues in Indonesian fresh meat supply chain from the farm until to the “plate”. The critical points for food safety in physical fresh meat product flow are also identified. The paper employed one case study in the Indonesian fresh meat company by conducting observations and in-depth three stages of interviews. At the first interview, the players, process, and activities in the fresh meat industry were identified. In the second interview, critical points for food safety were recognized. The risk events in each player and process were identified in the last interview. The research will be conducted in three stages, but this article focuses on risk identification process (first stage) only. The second stage is measuring risk and the third stage focuses on determining the value of risk priority. The results showed that there were four players in the fresh meat supply chain: livestock (source), slaughter (make), distributor and retail (deliver). Each player has different activities and identified 16 risk events in the fresh meat supply chain. Some of the strategies that can be used to reduce the occurrence of such risks include improving the ability of laborers on food safety systems, improving cutting equipment and distribution processes

Self-Identified Sexual Orientation and Sexual Risk Behavior Among HIV-Infected Latino Males.

PubMed

Champion, Jane Dimmitt; Szlachta, Alaina

2016-01-01

The HIV testing, disclosure, and sexual practices of ethnic minority men suggest that addressing sexual risk behavior and the underlying reasons for not receiving HIV testing or disclosing HIV-infection status-unique to differing populations-would improve public health interventions. Descriptive behaviors and underlying perspectives reported in our study suggest that public health interventions for HIV-infected Latino men who self-identify as heterosexual should explicitly identify substance use, needle sharing, and unprotected sex to current partners as behaviors placing both oneself and one's partners at high risk for contracting HIV. However, diversity of sexual behavior among gay, straight, and bisexual HIV-infected Latino men in our study ultimately suggested that clinicians should not rely on simplistic conceptions of sexuality in assessment of self-care needs. Care in presentation and discussion of self-identified sexual preference and sexual behavior is indicated, as these do not determine actual sexual orientation or behavior and vice versa. Copyright © 2016 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are Your Students Ready for Anatomy and Physiology? Developing Tools to Identify Students at Risk for Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

2015-01-01

High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online…

Computer-based malnutrition risk calculation may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for unfavorable outcome.

PubMed

Karagiozoglou-Lampoudi, Thomais; Daskalou, Efstratia; Lampoudis, Dimitrios; Apostolou, Aggeliki; Agakidis, Charalampos

2015-05-01

The study aimed to test the hypothesis that computer-based calculation of malnutrition risk may enhance the ability to identify pediatric patients at malnutrition-related risk for an unfavorable outcome. The Pediatric Digital Scaled MAlnutrition Risk screening Tool (PeDiSMART), incorporating the World Health Organization (WHO) growth reference data and malnutrition-related parameters, was used. This was a prospective cohort study of 500 pediatric patients aged 1 month to 17 years. Upon admission, the PeDiSMART score was calculated and anthropometry was performed. Pediatric Yorkhill Malnutrition Score (PYMS), Screening Tool Risk on Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), and Screening Tool for the Assessment of Malnutrition in Pediatrics (STAMP) malnutrition screening tools were also applied. PeDiSMART's association with the clinical outcome measures (weight loss/nutrition support and hospitalization duration) was assessed and compared with the other screening tools. The PeDiSMART score was inversely correlated with anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance phase angle (BIA PhA). The score's grading scale was based on BIA Pha quartiles. Weight loss/nutrition support during hospitalization was significantly independently associated with the malnutrition risk group allocation on admission, after controlling for anthropometric parameters and age. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 75% and a significant area under the curve, which differed significantly from that of STRONGkids and STAMP. In the subgroups of patients with PeDiSMART-based risk allocation different from that based on the other tools, PeDiSMART allocation was more closely related to outcome measures. PeDiSMART, applicable to the full age range of patients hospitalized in pediatric departments, graded according to BIA PhA, and embeddable in medical electronic records, enhances efficacy and reproducibility in identifying pediatric patients at

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed

Maxwell, Paul S; Pitt, Kylie A; Olds, Andrew D; Rissik, David; Connolly, Rod M

2015-03-01

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of

Latent Class Analysis of HIV Risk Behaviors Among Russian Women at Risk for Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancies.

PubMed

Bohora, Som; Chaffin, Mark; Shaboltas, Alla; Bonner, Barbara; Isurina, Galina; Batluk, Julia; Bard, David; Tsvetkova, Larissa; Skitnevskaya, Larissa; Volkova, Elena; Balachova, Tatiana

2017-11-01

The number of HIV cases attributed to heterosexual contact and the proportion of women among HIV positive individuals has increased worldwide. Russia is a country with the highest rates of newly diagnosed HIV infections in the region, and the infection spreads beyond traditional risk groups. While young women are affected disproportionately, knowledge of HIV risk behaviors in women in the general population remains limited. The objectives of this study were to identify patterns of behaviors that place women of childbearing age at high risk for HIV transmission and determine whether socio-demographic characteristics and alcohol use are predictive of the risk pattern. A total of 708 non-pregnant women, aged between 18 and 44 years, who were at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy were enrolled in two regions in Russia. Participants completed a structured interview focused on HIV risk behaviors, including risky sexual behavior and alcohol and drug use. Latent class analysis was utilized to examine associations between HIV risk and other demographic and alcohol use characteristics and to identify patterns of risk among women. Three classes were identified. 34.93% of participants were at high risk, combining their risk behaviors, e.g., having multiple sexual partners, with high partner's risk associated with partner's drug use (class I). Despite reporting self-perceived risk for HIV/STI, this class of participants was unlikely to utilize adequate protection (i.e., condom use). The second high risk class included 13.19% of participants who combined their risky sexual behaviors, i.e., multiple sexual partners and having STDs, with partner's risk that included partner's imprisonment and partner's sex with other women (class II). Participants in this class were likely to utilize protection/condoms. Finally, 51.88% of participants were at lower risk, which was associated primarily with their partners' risk, and these participants utilized protection (class III). The odds

Public health campaigns and their effect on stroke knowledge in a high-risk urban population: A five-year study.

PubMed

Metias, Maged M; Eisenberg, Naomi; Clemente, Michael D; Wooster, Elizabeth M; Dueck, Andrew D; Wooster, Douglas L; Roche-Nagle, Graham

2017-10-01

Background The level of knowledge of stroke risk factors and stroke symptoms within a population may determine their ability to recognize and ultimately react to a stroke. Independent agencies have addressed this through extensive awareness campaigns. The aim of this study was to determine the change in baseline knowledge of stroke risk factors, symptoms, and source of stroke knowledge in a high-risk Toronto population between 2010 and 2015. Methods Questionnaires were distributed to adults presenting to cardiovascular clinics at the University of Toronto in Toronto, Canada. In 2010 and 2015, a total of 207 and 818 individuals, respectively, participated in the study. Participants were identified as stroke literate if they identified (1) at least one stroke risk factor and (2) at least one stroke symptom. Results A total of 198 (95.6%) and 791 (96.7%) participants, respectively, completed the questionnaire in 2010 and 2015. The most frequently identified risk factors for stroke in 2010 and 2015 were, respectively, smoking (58.1%) and hypertension (49.0%). The most common stroke symptom identified was trouble speaking (56.6%) in 2010 and weakness, numbness or paralysis (67.1%) in 2015. Approximately equal percentages of respondents were able to identify ≥1 risk factor (80.3% vs. 83.1%, p = 0.34) and ≥1 symptom (90.9% vs. 88.7%, p = 0.38). Overall, the proportion of respondents who were able to correctly list ≥1 stroke risk factors and stroke symptoms was similar in both groups.(76.8% vs. 75.5%, p = 0.70). The most commonly reported stroke information resource was television (61.1% vs. 67.6%, p = 0.09). Conclusion Stroke literacy has remained stable in this selected high-risk population despite large investments in public campaigns over recent years. However, the baseline remains high over the study period. Evaluation of previous campaigns and development of targeted advertisements using more commonly used media sources offer opportunities to

Genetic risk factors for antiepileptic drug-induced hypersensitivity reactions in Israeli populations.

PubMed

Israel, Shoshana; Maggio, Nicola; Ekstein, Dana; Zaid, Huda; Firer, Maria; Bederovsky, Yana; Noyman, Iris; Gandelman-Marton, Revital; Blatt, Ilan; Brautbar, Chaim; Marom, Eli; Nahlieli Dil, Dorit; Berman, Erez; Sabag, David; Ingber, Arieh; Eyal, Sara

2016-10-01

The human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles B*15:02 and A*31:01 have been identified as predictive markers of adverse cutaneous effects of carbamazepine and phenytoin in Asian and North European populations, respectively. Our aim was to estimate the distribution of these alleles in Jewish and Arab populations in Israel. The HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 carrier rate was estimated based on data from the Hadassah Bone Marrow Registry. Data on Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS)- and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN)-related hospitalizations were obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH) registries and from four Israeli medical centers. Of 83,705 Jewish and Arab-Muslim donors, 81 individuals of known origin carried the HLA-B*15:02. Among them, 66 were Jews of India-Cochin descent. Of the Cochin Jewish donors, 12.7% were B*15:02 carriers. HLA-A*31:01 carrier incidence among Arab and Jewish Israeli populations (3.5% and 2.2%, respectively) was within the range reported in other countries. We did not identify SJS- or TEN-related hospitalizations of Jews of Indian descent. Yet, this population should be considered at greater risk for antiepileptic drug-induced SJS and TEN. Until further data on actual risk are available, such patients should be typed for HLA-B before treatment with carbamazepine or phenytoin. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

Identifying the Transgender Population in the Medicare Program

PubMed Central

Proctor, Kimberly; Haffer, Samuel C.; Ewald, Erin; Hodge, Carla; James, Cara V.

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose: To identify and describe the transgender population in the Medicare program using administrative data. Methods: Using a combination of International Classification of Diseases ninth edition (ICD-9) codes relating to transsexualism and gender identity disorder, we analyzed 100% of the 2013 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare Fee-For-Service (FFS) “final action” claims from both institutional and noninstitutional providers (∼1 billion claims) to identify individuals who may be transgender Medicare beneficiaries. To confirm, we developed and applied a multistage validation process. Results: Four thousand ninety-eight transgender beneficiaries were identified, of which ∼90% had confirmatory diagnoses, billing codes, or evidence of a hormone prescription. In general, the racial, ethnic, and geographic distribution of the Medicare transgender population tends to reflect the broader Medicare population. However, age, original entitlement status, and disease burden of the transgender population appear substantially different. Conclusions: Using a variety of claims information, ranging from claims history to additional diagnoses, billing modifiers, and hormone prescriptions, we demonstrate that administrative data provide a valuable resource for identifying a lower bound of the Medicare transgender population. In addition, we provide a baseline description of the diversity and disease burden of the population and a framework for future research. PMID:28861539

Awareness of risk factors among persons at risk for lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and sleep apnea: A Canadian population-based study

PubMed Central

Walker, Shannon L; Saltman, David L; Colucci, Rosemary; Martin, Lesli

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE To assess awareness among persons at risk for lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and sleep apnea regarding symptoms and risk factors of the disease, and their attitudes regarding the disease and toward those who are affected. METHODS A quantitative hybrid telephone and Internet survey of a representative population of Canadian adults at risk for at least one of the three diseases was conducted. To measure the awareness and attitudes of First Nations, Inuit and Métis people to these diseases, a proportionate number were also surveyed. RESULTS A total of 3626 individuals were contacted. Of these, 3036 (84%) were eligible to participate. Of those at risk for lung cancer and COPD, 65% and 69%, respectively, were due to tobacco smoke exposure. Among those at risk, 72% believed that they were informed about lung cancer compared with 36% for COPD and 56% for sleep apnea. Most respondents were knowledgeable about the common symptoms of lung cancer, COPD and sleep apnea, but were less aware of the impact lifestyle choices could have on the development of these disorders and the availability of treatment. Most of the participants (77%) believed that smoking was an addiction rather than a habit (19%). There were no significant differences in the awareness of risk factors, symptoms and attitudes toward all three lung diseases between First Nations, Inuit and Métis people and the general population. CONCLUSIONS Canadians are reasonably aware of risk factors and symptoms for lung cancer and sleep apnea. However, there is poor awareness of COPD as a disease entity. There is a lack of appreciation for the impact lifestyle choices and changes can have on lung diseases. PMID:21165351

Awareness of risk factors among persons at risk for lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and sleep apnea: a Canadian population-based study.

PubMed

Walker, Shannon L; Saltman, David L; Colucci, Rosemary; Martin, Leslie

2010-01-01

To assess awareness among persons at risk for lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and sleep apnea regarding symptoms and risk factors of the disease, and their attitudes regarding the disease and toward those who are affected. A quantitative hybrid telephone and Internet survey of a representative population of Canadian adults at risk for at least one of the three diseases was conducted. To measure the awareness and attitudes of First Nations, Inuit and Métis people to these diseases, a proportionate number were also surveyed.  A total of 3626 individuals were contacted. Of these, 3036 (84%) were eligible to participate. Of those at risk for lung cancer and COPD, 65% and 69%, respectively, were due to tobacco smoke exposure. Among those at risk, 72% believed that they were informed about lung cancer compared with 36% for COPD and 56% for sleep apnea. Most respondents were knowledgeable about the common symptoms of lung cancer, COPD and sleep apnea, but were less aware of the impact lifestyle choices could have on the development of these disorders and the availability of treatment. Most of the participants (77%) believed that smoking was an addiction rather than a habit (19%). There were no significant differences in the awareness of risk factors, symptoms and attitudes toward all three lung diseases between First Nations, Inuit and Métis people and the general population. Canadians are reasonably aware of risk factors and symptoms for lung cancer and sleep apnea. However, there is poor awareness of COPD as a disease entity. There is a lack of appreciation for the impact lifestyle choices and changes can have on lung diseases.

Prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a risk factor at a tertiary care hospital.

PubMed

Mahmud, Ghazala; Abbas, Shazra

2009-01-01

HIV is an epidemic quite unlike any other, combining the problems of a lifelong medical disease with immense social, psychological, economic and public health consequences. Since we are living in a global village where human interactions has become fast and frequent, diseases like HIV are no more alien to us. HIV/AIDS in Pakistan is slowly gaining recognition as a public health issue of great importance. Objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence of HIV in pregnant women identified with a high risk factor/behaviour at a tertiary care hospital. It is a Descriptive study. All pregnant women attending antenatal booking clinic were assessed via a pre-designed 'Risk assessment questionnaire'. Women identified with a risk factor were offered HIV Rapid screening test (Capillus HIV1/2). Positive (reactive) results on screening test were confirmed with ELISA. During the study period (March 2007-May 2008), out of 5263 antenatal bookings 785 (14%) women were identified with a risk factor. HIV screening test was done in 779 (99%), and 6 women refused testing. Three women (0.3%) were found positive (reactive) on screening. Two out of 3 women were confirmed positive (0.2%) on ELISA. Husbands of both women were tested and one found positive (migrant from Dubai). Second women had history of blood transfusion. Her husband was HIV negative. During the study period, in addition to 2 pregnant women diagnosed as HIV positive through ANC risk screening, 6 confirmed HIV positive women, found pregnant were referred from 'HIV Treatment Centre', Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) to Prevention of Parent to Child Transmission (PPTCT) centre for obstetric care. Spouses of 5 out of 6 had history of working abroad and extramarital sexual relationships. All positive (8) women were referred to PPTCT centre for further management. A simple 'Risk Assessment Questionnaire' can help us in identifying women who need HIV screening. Sexual transmission still remains the

Transgender populations and HIV: unique risks, challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Wansom, Tanyaporn; Guadamuz, Thomas E; Vasan, Sandhya

2016-04-01

Due to unique social, behavioural, structural and biological issues, transgender (TG) populations, especially TG women, are at high risk for HIV acquisition. This increased risk is multifactorial, due to differing psychosocial risk factors, poorer access to TG-specific healthcare, a higher likelihood of using exogenous hormones or fillers without direct medical supervision, interactions between hormonal therapy and antiretroviral therapy, and direct effects of hormonal therapy on HIV acquisition and immune control. Further research is needed to elucidate these mechanisms of risk and to help design interventions to reduce HIV risk among transgender populations.

Screening for germline BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53 and CHEK2 mutations in families at-risk for hereditary breast cancer identified in a population-based study from Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Palmero, Edenir Inêz; Alemar, Bárbara; Schüler-Faccini, Lavínia; Hainaut, Pierre; Moreira-Filho, Carlos Alberto; Ewald, Ingrid Petroni; Santos, Patricia Koehler Dos; Ribeiro, Patricia Lisbôa Izetti; Oliveira, Cristina Brinkmann de Netto; Calvez-Kelm, Florence Le; Tavtigian, Sean; Cossio, Silvia Liliana; Giugliani, Roberto; Caleffi, Maira; Ashton-Prolla, Patricia

2016-05-24

In Brazil, breast cancer is a public health care problem due to its high incidence and mortality rates. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of hereditary breast cancer syndromes (HBCS) in a population-based cohort in Brazils southernmost capital, Porto Alegre. All participants answered a questionnaire about family history (FH) of breast, ovarian and colorectal cancer and those with a positive FH were invited for genetic cancer risk assessment (GCRA). If pedigree analysis was suggestive of HBCS, genetic testing of the BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53, and CHEK2 genes was offered. Of 902 women submitted to GCRA, 214 had pedigrees suggestive of HBCS. Fifty of them underwent genetic testing: 18 and 40 for BRCA1/BRCA2 and TP53 mutation screening, respectively, and 7 for CHEK2 1100delC testing. A deleterious BRCA2 mutation was identified in one of the HBOC probands and the CHEK2 1100delC mutation occurred in one of the HBCC families. No deleterious germline alterations were identified in BRCA1 or TP53. Although strict inclusion criteria and a comprehensive testing approach were used, the suspected genetic risk in these families remains unexplained. Further studies in a larger cohort are necessary to better understand the genetic component of hereditary breast cancer in Southern Brazil.

Screening for germline BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53 and CHEK2 mutations in families at-risk for hereditary breast cancer identified in a population-based study from Southern Brazil

PubMed Central

Palmero, Edenir Inêz; Alemar, Bárbara; Schüler-Faccini, Lavínia; Hainaut, Pierre; Moreira-Filho, Carlos Alberto; Ewald, Ingrid Petroni; dos Santos, Patricia Koehler; Ribeiro, Patricia Lisbôa Izetti; de Oliveira, Cristina Brinkmann; Kelm, Florence Le Calvez; Tavtigian, Sean; Cossio, Silvia Liliana; Giugliani, Roberto; Caleffi, Maira; Ashton-Prolla, Patricia

2016-01-01

Abstract In Brazil, breast cancer is a public health care problem due to its high incidence and mortality rates. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of hereditary breast cancer syndromes (HBCS) in a population-based cohort in Brazils southernmost capital, Porto Alegre. All participants answered a questionnaire about family history (FH) of breast, ovarian and colorectal cancer and those with a positive FH were invited for genetic cancer risk assessment (GCRA). If pedigree analysis was suggestive of HBCS, genetic testing of the BRCA1, BRCA2, TP53, and CHEK2 genes was offered. Of 902 women submitted to GCRA, 214 had pedigrees suggestive of HBCS. Fifty of them underwent genetic testing: 18 and 40 for BRCA1/BRCA2 and TP53 mutation screening, respectively, and 7 for CHEK2 1100delC testing. A deleterious BRCA2 mutation was identified in one of the HBOC probands and the CHEK2 1100delC mutation occurred in one of the HBCC families. No deleterious germline alterations were identified in BRCA1 or TP53. Although strict inclusion criteria and a comprehensive testing approach were used, the suspected genetic risk in these families remains unexplained. Further studies in a larger cohort are necessary to better understand the genetic component of hereditary breast cancer in Southern Brazil. PMID:27223485

When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time.

PubMed

Bodemer, Nicolai; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Galesic, Mirta

2013-01-01

People show higher sensitivity to dread risks, rare events that kill many people at once, compared with continuous risks, relatively frequent events that kill many people over a longer period of time. The different reaction to dread risks is often considered a bias: If the continuous risk causes the same number of fatalities, it should not be perceived as less dreadful. We test the hypothesis that a dread risk may have a stronger negative impact on the cumulative population size over time in comparison with a continuous risk causing the same number of fatalities. This difference should be particularly strong when the risky event affects children and young adults who would have produced future offspring if they had survived longer. We conducted a series of simulations, with varying assumptions about population size, population growth, age group affected by risky event, and the underlying demographic model. Results show that dread risks affect the population more severely over time than continuous risks that cause the same number of fatalities, suggesting that fearing a dread risk more than a continuous risk is an ecologically rational strategy.

European multiple sclerosis risk variants in the south Asian population.

PubMed

Pandit, Lekha; Ban, Maria; Beecham, Ashley Harris; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; D'Cunha, Anitha; Malli, Chaitra; Malik, Omar

2016-10-01

In less than a decade, genomewide association studies have identified over 100 single-nucleotide variants that are associated with increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis. However, since these studies have focused almost exclusively on European populations, it is unclear what role these variants might play in determining risk in other ethnic groups. To assess the effects of European multiple sclerosis-associated risk variants in the south Asian population. Using a combination of chip-based genotyping and next-generation sequencing, we have assessed 109 European-associated variants in a total of 270 cases and 555 controls from the south Asian population. We found that two-thirds of the tested variants (72/109) showed over representation of the European risk allele in south Asian cases (p < 0.0003). In the rest of the Immunochip array, the most associated variant was rs7318477 which maps close to TNFSF13B, the gene for the B-cell-related protein BAFF. Our data indicate substantial overlap in genetic risk architecture between Europeans and south Asians and suggest that the aetiology of the disease may be largely independent of ethnicity. © The Author(s), 2016.

Genome-wide association study of ancestry-specific TB risk in the South African Coloured population

PubMed Central

Chimusa, Emile R.; Zaitlen, Noah; Daya, Michelle; Möller, Marlo; van Helden, Paul D.; Mulder, Nicola J.; Price, Alkes L.; Hoal, Eileen G.

2014-01-01

The worldwide burden of tuberculosis (TB) remains an enormous problem, and is particularly severe in the admixed South African Coloured (SAC) population residing in the Western Cape. Despite evidence from twin studies suggesting a strong genetic component to TB resistance, only a few loci have been identified to date. In this work, we conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS), meta-analysis and trans-ethnic fine mapping to attempt the replication of previously identified TB susceptibility loci. Our GWAS results confirm the WT1 chr11 susceptibility locus (rs2057178: odds ratio = 0.62, P = 2.71e−06) previously identified by Thye et al., but fail to replicate previously identified polymorphisms in the TLR8 gene and locus 18q11.2. Our study demonstrates that the genetic contribution to TB risk varies between continental populations, and illustrates the value of including admixed populations in studies of TB risk and other complex phenotypes. Our evaluation of local ancestry based on the real and simulated data demonstrates that case-only admixture mapping is currently impractical in multi-way admixed populations, such as the SAC, due to spurious deviations in average local ancestry generated by current local ancestry inference methods. This study provides insights into identifying disease genes and ancestry-specific disease risk in multi-way admixed populations. PMID:24057671

Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

2017-11-10

Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Occupations with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish population

PubMed Central

Alguacil, J; Pollan, M; Gustavsson, P

2003-01-01

Aims: To identify occupations with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish population gainfully employed in 1970 over the period 1971–89. Methods: The base population was made up of Swedish men (1 779 646) and Swedish women (1 101 669) gainfully employed at the time of the 1970 census and were still alive and over age 24 on 1 January 1971. Information was drawn from two data sets: the Swedish cancer environment register and a background population register. After 19 years of follow up, 4420 men and 2143 women were diagnosed with histologically confirmed incident pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Log linear Poisson models were fitted, allowing for geographical area and town size. Risk estimators were also calculated for workers reporting the same occupation in 1960 and 1970. Results: Among women, a statistically significant risk excess of pancreatic cancer was observed for "educational methods advisors", "librarian, archivist, curator", "motor vehicle driver", "typographer, lithographer", "purser, steward, stewardess", "other housekeeping and related workers", and the groups of occupations of "electrical, electronic, and related" and "glass, pottery, and tile workers". Men showed a higher incidence of pancreatic cancer among "technical assistants", "travelling agents", "other metal processing workers", "baker and pastry cook", "docker and freight handler", and "waiters". Conclusions: This study does not indicate that occupational factors play an important role in the aetiology of pancreatic cancer in Sweden. Few occupations were at increased risk of pancreatic cancer in both men and women, and the associations observed are in accordance with some previous studies from Western countries. PMID:12883017

Identifying Darwinian Selection Acting on Different Human APOL1 Variants among Diverse African Populations

PubMed Central

Ko, Wen-Ya; Rajan, Prianka; Gomez, Felicia; Scheinfeldt, Laura; An, Ping; Winkler, Cheryl A.; Froment, Alain; Nyambo, Thomas B.; Omar, Sabah A.; Wambebe, Charles; Ranciaro, Alessia; Hirbo, Jibril B.; Tishkoff, Sarah A.

2013-01-01

Disease susceptibility can arise as a consequence of adaptation to infectious disease. Recent findings have suggested that higher rates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in individuals with recent African ancestry might be attributed to two risk alleles (G1 and G2) at the serum-resistance-associated (SRA)-interacting-domain-encoding region of APOL1. These two alleles appear to have arisen adaptively, possibly as a result of their protective effects against human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), or African sleeping sickness. In order to explore the distribution of potential functional variation at APOL1, we studied nucleotide variation in 187 individuals across ten geographically and genetically diverse African ethnic groups with exposure to two Trypanosoma brucei subspecies that cause HAT. We observed unusually high levels of nonsynonymous polymorphism in the regions encoding the functional domains that are required for lysing parasites. Whereas allele frequencies of G2 were similar across all populations (3%–8%), the G1 allele was only common in the Yoruba (39%). Additionally, we identified a haplotype (termed G3) that contains a nonsynonymous change at the membrane-addressing-domain-encoding region of APOL1 and is present in all populations except for the Yoruba. Analyses of long-range patterns of linkage disequilibrium indicate evidence of recent selection acting on the G3 haplotype in Fulani from Cameroon. Our results indicate that the G1 and G2 variants in APOL1 are geographically restricted and that there might be other functional variants that could play a role in HAT resistance and CKD risk in African populations. PMID:23768513

Maternal hormone levels and risk of cryptorchism among populations at high and low risk of testicular germ cell tumors.

PubMed

McGlynn, Katherine A; Graubard, Barry I; Nam, Jun-Mo; Stanczyk, Frank Z; Longnecker, Matthew P; Klebanoff, Mark A

2005-07-01

Cryptorchism is one of the few well-described risk factors for testicular cancer. It has been suggested that both conditions are related to increased in utero estrogen exposure. The evidence supporting the "estrogen hypothesis" has been inconsistent, however. An alternative hypothesis suggests that higher in utero androgen exposure may protect against the development of cryptorchism and testicular cancer. In order to examine both hypotheses, we studied maternal hormone levels in two populations at diverse risks of testicular cancer; Black Americans (low-risk) and White Americans (high-risk). The study population of 200 mothers of cryptorchid sons and 200 mothers of noncryptorchid sons was nested within the Collaborative Perinatal Project, a cohort study of pregnant women and their children. Third trimester serum levels of estradiol (total, free, bioavailable), estriol, testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), sex hormone-binding globulin, alpha-fetoprotein, and the ratios of estradiols to testosterones were compared between the case and control mothers. The results found no significant differences in the levels of testosterone (total, free, bioavailable), alpha-fetoprotein, sex hormone-binding globulin, or in the ratios of estrogens to androgens. Total estradiol, however, was significantly lower in the cases versus the controls (P = 0.03) among all mothers and, separately, among White mothers (P = 0.05). Similarly, estriol was significantly lower among all cases (P = 0.05) and among White cases (P = 0.05). These results do not support either the estrogen or the androgen hypothesis. Rather, lower estrogens in case mothers may indicate that a placental defect increases the risk of cryptorchism and, possibly, testicular cancer.

Mild cognitive impairment: an opportunity to identify patients at high risk for progression to Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Levey, Allan; Lah, James; Goldstein, Felicia; Steenland, Kyle; Bliwise, Donald

2006-07-01

There is increasing evidence that subtle losses in cognitive function may be symptomatic of a transition to early Alzheimer's disease (AD). Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to AD. Of the MCI subtypes, patients with amnestic MCI (a-MCI) are at greatest risk. The objectives of this article were to review the relationship between MCI, normal aging, and AD, and to summarize recent research on the diagnosis and potential treatment of MCI. Relevant articles were identified through searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE using the terms mild cognitive impairment; cognitive impairment, no dementia; and dementia prodrome, with no restrictions as to year. Additional papers of interest were identified from the reference lists of the identified articles. The search was current as of February 2006. Guidelines and recommendations are being developed to assist physicians in diagnosing MCI, identifying its subtype and etiology, understanding the risks for conversion to AD, and managing disease progression. Given the existence of a subset of individuals with a-MCI, who are at greatest risk for progression to AD but still have high levels of cognition and function, the ability to improve symptoms and delay progression to AD would be particularly beneficial. In a 3-year, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in 769 patients with a-MCI, treatment with the cholinesterase inhibitor donepezil was associated with a significantly lower rate of progression to AD compared with placebo during the first 12 months of treatment (hazard ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.24-0.76; P=0.004) but not at later time points. Of other types of agents that have been investigated (antioxidants, estrogen replacement therapy, cyclooxygenase-2-selective inhibitors), none have shown significant beneficial effects in delaying cognitive decline or progression to AD. New drugs such as secretase inhibitors, small

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Identifying Emergency Department Patients at Low Risk for a Variceal Source of Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Klein, Lauren R; Money, Joel; Maharaj, Kaveesh; Robinson, Aaron; Lai, Tarissa; Driver, Brian E

2017-11-01

Assessing the likelihood of a variceal versus nonvariceal source of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) guides therapy, but can be difficult to determine on clinical grounds. The objective of this study was to determine if there are easily ascertainable clinical and laboratory findings that can identify a patient as low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. This was a retrospective cohort study of adult ED patients with UGIB between January 2008 and December 2014 who had upper endoscopy performed during hospitalization. Clinical and laboratory data were abstracted from the medical record. The source of the UGIB was defined as variceal or nonvariceal based on endoscopic reports. Binary recursive partitioning was utilized to create a clinical decision rule. The rule was internally validated and test characteristics were calculated with 1,000 bootstrap replications. A total of 719 patients were identified; mean age was 55 years and 61% were male. There were 71 (10%) patients with a variceal UGIB identified on endoscopy. Binary recursive partitioning yielded a two-step decision rule (platelet count > 200 × 10 9 /L and an international normalized ratio [INR] < 1.3), which identified patients who were low risk for a variceal source of hemorrhage. For the bootstrapped samples, the rule performed with 97% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 91%-100%) and 49% specificity (95% CI = 44%-53%). Although this derivation study must be externally validated before widespread use, patients presenting to the ED with an acute UGIB with platelet count of >200 × 10 9 /L and an INR of <1.3 may be at very low risk for a variceal source of their upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Understanding Falls Risk and Impacts in Chinese American Older Patients at a Community Health Center.

PubMed

Huang, Susan; Duong, Thomas; Ieong, Liss; Quach, Thu

2017-08-01

While falls are highly prevalent and costly for older adults, little is known about falls for Asian Americans. Using a custom, evidence-based, bilingual fall risk assessment and management tool, our study examined the prevalence of falls among older Chinese-speaking patients at a community health center. We identified the risks for falls and explored an association of fall risk with emergency room (ER) and hospital use in this population. The setting was at a community health center in Oakland, CA. Participants included 839 older Asian American adults (ages 65-80 years) who spoke Cantonese/Mandarin. Primary care clinic staff administered a fall risk assessment and management tool at the time of clinic visits to assess patients' risk factors for falls. Of the total, 173 (20.6%) reported having fallen in the past year, with women comprising a majority (71.7%). 362 patients in the cohort (43.1%) reported fear of falling. For the subset of Medicaid managed care patients (n = 455, 54.3% of total) for whom we were able to obtain ER and hospital utilization data, 31 patients (14.5%) who reported a fall risk had an ER/hospital episode compared to 15 (6.2%) of those who did not self-report fall risks (statistically significant, p < 0.05). A targeted fall risk assessment and management tool designed by community-based primary care practitioners and utilized with linguistic and cultural competence to focus on Asian American older adults, can help establish the prevalence of falls in this understudied population and effectively identify those at higher risk for falls and subsequent ER/hospital utilization. More research is needed to understand the risk and impacts of falls in understudied populations and identify ways to prevent these costly falls.

PTEN IDENTIFIED AS IMPORTANT RISK FACTOR OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE

PubMed Central

Hosgood, H Dean; Menashe, Idan; He, Xingzhou; Chanock, Stephen; Lan, Qing

2009-01-01

Common genetic variation may play an important role in altering chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk. In Xuanwei, China, the COPD rate is more than twice the Chinese national average, and COPD is strongly associated with in-home coal use. To identify genetic variation that may be associated with COPD in a population with substantial in-home coal smoke exposures, we evaluated 1,261 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 380 candidate genes potentially relevant for cancer and other human diseases in a population-based case-control study in Xuanwei (53 cases; 107 controls). PTEN was the most significantly associated gene with COPD in a minP analysis using 20,000 permutations (P = 0.00005). SNP-based analyses found that homozygote variant carriers of PTEN rs701848 (ORTT = 0.12, 95%CI = 0.03 - 0.47) had a significant decreased risk of COPD. PTEN, or phosphatase and tensin homolog, is an important regulator of cell cycle progression and cellular survival via the AKT signaling pathway. Our exploratory analysis suggests that genetic variation in PTEN may be an important risk factor of COPD in Xuanwei. However, due to the small sample size, additional studies are needed to evaluate these associations within Xuanwei and other populations with coal smoke exposures. PMID:19625176

Single measure and gated screening approaches for identifying students at-risk for academic problems: Implications for sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Van Norman, Ethan R; Nelson, Peter M; Klingbeil, David A

2017-09-01

Educators need recommendations to improve screening practices without limiting students' instructional opportunities. Repurposing previous years' state test scores has shown promise in identifying at-risk students within multitiered systems of support. However, researchers have not directly compared the diagnostic accuracy of previous years' state test scores with data collected during fall screening periods to identify at-risk students. In addition, the benefit of using previous state test scores in conjunction with data from a separate measure to identify at-risk students has not been explored. The diagnostic accuracy of 3 types of screening approaches were tested to predict proficiency on end-of-year high-stakes assessments: state test data obtained during the previous year, data from a different measure administered in the fall, and both measures combined (i.e., a gated model). Extant reading and math data (N = 2,996) from 10 schools in the Midwest were analyzed. When used alone, both measures yielded similar sensitivity and specificity values. The gated model yielded superior specificity values compared with using either measure alone, at the expense of sensitivity. Implications, limitations, and ideas for future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Panel 2: anticipatory risk assessment: identifying, assessing, and mitigating exposure risks before they occur.

PubMed

Guidotti, Tee L; Pacha, Laura

2011-07-01

Health threats place the military mission and deployed service members at risk. A commander's focus is on preventing acute health risks, such as diarrhea, because these quickly compromise the mission. However, in recent conflicts chronic and long-term illness risks have emerged as concerns. Department of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff mandates require documentation of exposures and environmental conditions to reconstruct exposures and evaluate future health risks. Current processes for identifying and assessing hazards, including identification and assessment before deployment and in time to take action to prevent or reduce exposures, when followed, are generally adequate for known hazards. Identifying and addressing novel, unexpected risks remain challenges. Armed conflicts are associated with rapidly changing conditions, making ongoing hazard identification and assessment difficult. Therefore, surveillance of the environment for hazards and surveillance of personnel for morbidity must be practiced at all times. Communication of risk information to decision makers is critical but problematic. Preventive Medicine (PM) personnel should take responsibility for communicating this information to non-PM military medical people and to military commanders. Communication of risks identified and lessons learned between PM personnel of different military units is extremely important when one military unit replaces another in a deployed environment.

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study.

PubMed

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Prospective cohort study. Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered.

Risk factors of falls in inpatients and their practical use in identifying high-risk persons at admission: Fukushima Medical University Hospital cohort study

PubMed Central

Hayakawa, Takehito; Hashimoto, Shigeatsu; Kanda, Hideyuki; Hirano, Noriko; Kurihara, Yumi; Kawashima, Takako; Fukushima, Tetsuhito

2014-01-01

Objectives To clarify the risk factors for falls in hospital settings and to propose the use of such factors to identify high-risk persons at admission. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Japan, from August 2008 and September 2009. Participants 9957 adult consecutive inpatients admitted to our hospital. Methods Information was collected at admission from clinical records obtained from a structured questionnaire conducted in face-to-face interviews with subjects by nurses and doctors and fall events were collected from clinical records. Results The proportion of patients who fell during follow-up was 2.5% and the incidence of falls was 3.28 per 100 person-days. There were significant differences in age, history of falling, cognitive dysfunction, planned surgery, wheelchair use, need for help to move, use of a remote caring system, rehabilitation, use of laxative, hypnotic or psychotropic medications and need for help with activities of daily living (ADL) between patients who did and did not fall. Multivariable adjusted ORs for falls showed that age, history of falls and need for help with ADL were common risk factors in both men and women. Using psychotropic medication also increased the risk of falling in men while cognitive dysfunction and use of hypnotic medication increased the risk of falling in women. Planned surgery was associated with a low risk of falls in women. Conclusions To prevent falls in inpatients it is important to identify high-risk persons. Age, history of falling and the need for help with ADL are the most important pieces of information to be obtained at admission. Care plans for patients including fall prevention should be clear and considered. PMID:25232563

Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Embedded Measures on Outcomes of Kindergarteners Identified as At Risk for Reading Difficulty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oslund, Eric L.; Hagan-Burke, Shanna; Simmons, Deborah C.; Clemens, Nathan H.; Simmons, Leslie E.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Kwok, Oi-man; Coyne, Michael D.

2017-01-01

This study examined the predictive validity of formative assessments embedded in a Tier 2 intervention curriculum for kindergarten students identified as at risk for reading difficulty. We examined when (i.e., months during the school year) measures could predict reading outcomes gathered at the end of kindergarten and whether the predictive…

Identifying Preschool Children at Risk of Later Reading Difficulties: Evaluation of Two Emergent Literacy Screening Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Shauna B.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

Emergent literacy skills are predictive of children's early reading success, and literacy achievement in early schooling declines more rapidly for children who are below-average readers. It is therefore important for teachers to identify accurately children at risk for later reading difficulty so children can be exposed to effective emergent…

Traffic-related air pollution and risk for leukaemia of an adult population.

PubMed

Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Ketzel, Matthias; Harbo Poulsen, Aslak; Sørensen, Mette

2016-03-01

Air pollution causes lung cancer, but associations with other cancers have not been established. We investigated whether long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution is associated with the risk of the general population for leukaemia. We identified 1,967 people in whom leukaemia was diagnosed in 1992-2010 from a nation-wide cancer registry and selected 3,381 control people at random, matched on sex and year of birth, from the entire Danish population. Residential addresses since 1971 were traced in a population registry, and outdoor concentrations of NOx and NO2 , as indicators of traffic-related air pollution, were calculated at each address in a dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the risk for leukaemia after adjustment for income, educational level, cohabitation status and co-morbidity. In linear analyses, we found odds ratios for acute myeloid leukaemia of 1.20 (95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.38) per 20 µg/m(3) increase in NOx and 1.31 (1.02-1.68) per 10 µg/m(3) increase in NO2 , calculated as time-weighted average exposure at all addresses since 1971. We found no association with chronic myeloid or lymphocytic leukaemia. This study indicates an association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and acute myeloid leukaemia in the general population, but not for other subtypes of leukaemia. © 2015 UICC.

Predicting the unpredictable? Identifying high-risk versus low-risk parents with intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

McGaw, Sue; Scully, Tamara; Pritchard, Colin

2010-09-01

This study set out to identify risk factors affecting parents with intellectual disabilities (IDs) by determining: (i) whether perception of family support differs between parents with IDs, referring professionals, and a specialist parenting service; (ii) whether multivariate familial and demographic factors differentiates 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parenting; and (iii) the impact of partner relationships on parental competency and risk status. Secondary data analysis was conducted on data gathered from 101 parents with IDs and 172 of their children, all of whom had been referred to a specialist parenting service over a 5 year period. Cross-tabulations were applied to the data to examine causal processes and to improve general understanding of the risks associated with families. Contrary to popular expectations IQ levels of the main parent, relationship status, parental age, employment, amenities, valued support and parents' perception of need were not identified as contributory factors distinguishing 'high-risk' from 'low-risk' parents. Instead, 'high-risk' parenting associated more with parental reports of childhood trauma (emotional abuse and physical neglect in particular), parents' having additional special needs in addition to their IDs or parents who were raising a child with special needs. Other 'high-risk' factors identified related to the male partners of mothers with IDs, many of whom did not have IDs and/or whose histories included anti-social behaviors or criminality. The study identified some high-risk variables among parents with IDs that can distinguish them from low-risk parents with IDs. These findings generate challenges for agencies who attempt to capture the needs of parents with IDs and who endeavour to provide services to families deemed to be "at risk." These outcomes will be of special interest to the courts, especially when parents with IDs are involved in care proceedings. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Inventory of Personal Skills for Achievement: Validity and Reliability Study of an Instrument for Identifying Educationally At-Risk Junior [High] School Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leaseburg, Melinda G.; And Others

This paper describes the development and test of an early-warning instrument for identifying at-risk students aged 10-15. A statistically sound test to identify at-risk high school students existed in the Personal Skills Map--Adolescent version (PSMA-A). This study used a modified version of PSM-A , which was renamed Personal Skills for…

Change Trajectories for the Youth Outcome Questionnaire Self-Report: Identifying Youth at Risk for Treatment Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannon, Jennifer A. N.; Warren, Jared S.; Nelson, Philip L.; Burlingame, Gary M.

2010-01-01

This study used longitudinal youth outcome data in routine mental health services to test a system for identifying cases at risk for treatment failure. Participants were 2,715 youth (M age = 14) served in outpatient managed care and community mental health settings. Change trajectories were developed using multilevel modeling of archival data.…

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

Identifying Learning Patterns of Children at Risk for Specific Reading Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barbot, Baptiste; Krivulskaya, Suzanna; Hein, Sascha; Reich, Jodi; Thuma, Philip E.; Grigorenko, Elena L.

2016-01-01

Differences in learning patterns of vocabulary acquisition in children at risk (+SRD) and not at risk (-SRD) for Specific Reading Disability (SRD) were examined using a microdevelopmental paradigm applied to the multi-trial Foreign Language Learning Task (FLLT; Baddeley et al., 1995). The FLLT was administered to 905 children from rural…

Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to low BMD. The extension of a

Using the Care Dependency Scale for identifying patients at risk for pressure ulcer.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Ate; Kazimier, Hetty; Halfens, Ruud J G

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate risk screening for pressure ulcer by using the Care Dependency Scale (CDS) for patients receiving home care or admitted to a residential or nursing home in the Netherlands. Pressure ulcer is a serious and persistent problem for patients throughout the Western world. Pressure ulcer is among the most common adverse events in nursing practice and when a pressure ulcer occurs it has many consequences for patients and healthcare professionals. Cross-sectional design. The convenience sample consisted of 13,633 study participants, of whom 2639 received home care from 15 organisations, 4077 were patients from 67 residential homes and 6917 were admitted in 105 nursing homes. Data were taken from the Dutch National Prevalence Survey of Care Problems that was carried out in April 2012 in Dutch healthcare settings. For the three settings, cut-off points above 80% sensitivity were established, while in the residential home sample an almost 60% combined specificity score was identified. The CDS items 'Body posture' (home care), 'Getting dressed and undressed' (residential homes) and 'Mobility' (nursing homes) were the most significant variables which affect PU. The CDS is able to distinguish between patients at risk for pressure ulcer development and those not at risk in both home care and residential care settings. In nursing homes, the usefulness of the CDS for pressure ulcer detection is limited. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The inherited risk of retained placenta: a population based cohort study.

PubMed

Endler, M; Cnattingius, S; Granfors, M; Wikström, A-K

2018-05-01

To investigate whether retained placenta in the first generation is associated with an increased risk of retained placenta in the second generation. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Using linked generational data from the Swedish Medical Birth Register 1973-2012, we identified 494 000 second-generation births with information on the birth of the mother (first-generation index birth). For 292 897 of these births there was information also on the birth of the father. Risk of retained placenta in the second generation was calculated as adjusted odds ratios (aOR) by unconditional logistic regression with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) according to whether retained placenta occurred in a first generation birth or not. Retained placenta in the second generation. The risk of retained placenta in a second-generation birth was increased if retained placenta had occurred at the mother's own birth (aOR 1.66, 95% CI 1.52-1.82), at the birth of one of her siblings (aOR 1.58, 95% CI 1.43-1.76) or both (aOR 2.75, 95% CI 2.18-3.46). The risk was slightly increased if retained placenta had occurred at the birth of the father (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.07-1.41). For preterm births in both generations, the risk of retained placenta in the second generation was increased six-fold if retained placenta had occurred at the mother's birth (OR 6.55, 95% CI 2.68-16.02). There is an intergenerational recurrence of retained placenta on the maternal and most likely also on the paternal side. The recurrence risk seems strongest in preterm pregnancies. A population-based cohort study suggests that there is an intergenerational recurrence of retained placenta. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Preseason shoulder strength measurements in professional baseball pitchers: identifying players at risk for injury.

PubMed

Byram, Ian R; Bushnell, Brandon D; Dugger, Keith; Charron, Kevin; Harrell, Frank E; Noonan, Thomas J

2010-07-01

The ability to identify pitchers at risk for injury could be valuable to a professional baseball organization. To our knowledge, there have been no prior studies examining the predictive value of preseason strength measurements. Preseason weakness of shoulder external rotators is associated with increased risk of in-season throwing-related injury in professional baseball pitchers. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. Preseason shoulder strength was measured for all pitchers in a professional baseball organization over a 5-year period (2001-2005). Prone internal rotation (IR), prone external rotation (PER), seated external rotation (SER), and supraspinatus (SS) strength were tested during spring training before each season. The players were then prospectively followed throughout the season for incidence of throwing-related injury. Injuries were categorized on an ordinal scale, with no injury, injury treated conservatively, and injury resulting in surgery delineated 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Subset analyses of shoulder injuries and of players with prior surgery were also performed. The association between strength measurements and injury was analyzed using Spearman rank correlation. A statistically significant association was observed for PER strength (P = .003), SER strength (P = .048), and SS strength (P = .006) with throwing-related injury requiring surgical intervention. Supraspinatus strength was also significantly associated with incidence of any shoulder injury (P = .031). There was an association between the ratio of PER/IR strength and incidence of shoulder injury (P = .037) and some evidence for an association with overall incidence of throwing-related injury (P = .051). No associations were noted in the subgroup of players with prior surgery. Preseason weakness of external rotation and SS strength is associated with in-season throwing-related injury resulting in surgical intervention in professional baseball pitchers. Thus, preseason strength

Risk of hospitalization among survivors of childhood and adolescent acute lymphoblastic leukemia compared to siblings and a general population sample.

PubMed

Ou, Judy Y; Smits-Seemann, Rochelle R; Kaul, Sapna; Fluchel, Mark N; Sweeney, Carol; Kirchhoff, Anne C

2017-08-01

Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) has a high survival rate, but cancer-related late effects in the early post-treatment years need documentation. Hospitalizations are an indicator of the burden of late effects. We identify rates and risk factors for hospitalization from five to ten years after diagnosis for childhood and adolescent ALL survivors compared to siblings and a matched population sample. 176 ALL survivors were diagnosed at ≤22 years between 1998 and 2008 and treated at an Intermountain Healthcare facility. The Utah Population Database identified siblings, an age- and sex-matched sample of the Utah population, and statewide inpatient hospital discharges. Sex- and birth year-adjusted Poisson models with Generalized Estimating Equations and robust standard errors calculated rates and rate ratios. Cox proportional hazards models identified demographic and clinical risk factors for hospitalizations among survivors. Hospitalization rates for survivors (Rate:3.76, 95% CI=2.22-6.36) were higher than siblings (Rate:2.69, 95% CI=1.01-7.18) and the population sample (Rate:1.87, 95% CI=1.13-3.09). Compared to siblings and population comparisons, rate ratios (RR) were significantly higher for survivors diagnosed between age 6 and 22 years (RR:2.87, 95% CI=1.03-7.97 vs siblings; RR:2.66, 95% CI=1.17-6.04 vs population comparisons). Rate ratios for diagnosis between 2004 and 2008 were significantly higher compared to the population sample (RR:4.29, 95% CI=1.49, 12.32), but not siblings (RR:2.73, 95% CI=0.54, 13.68). Survivors originally diagnosed with high-risk ALL did not have a significantly higher risk than siblings or population comparators. However, high-risk ALL survivors (Hazard ratio [HR]:3.36, 95% CI=1.33-8.45) and survivors diagnosed from 2004 to 2008 (HR:9.48, 95% CI=1.93-46.59) had the highest risk compared to their survivor counterparts. Five to ten years after diagnosis is a sensitive time period for hospitalizations in the ALL population. Survivors of

Using risk-adjustment models to identify high-cost risks.

PubMed

Meenan, Richard T; Goodman, Michael J; Fishman, Paul A; Hornbrook, Mark C; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen C; Bachman, Donald J

2003-11-01

We examine the ability of various publicly available risk models to identify high-cost individuals and enrollee groups using multi-HMO administrative data. Five risk-adjustment models (the Global Risk-Adjustment Model [GRAM], Diagnostic Cost Groups [DCGs], Adjusted Clinical Groups [ACGs], RxRisk, and Prior-expense) were estimated on a multi-HMO administrative data set of 1.5 million individual-level observations for 1995-1996. Models produced distributions of individual-level annual expense forecasts for comparison to actual values. Prespecified "high-cost" thresholds were set within each distribution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for "high-cost" prevalences of 1% and 0.5% was calculated, as was the proportion of "high-cost" dollars correctly identified. Results are based on a separate 106,000-observation validation dataset. For "high-cost" prevalence targets of 1% and 0.5%, ACGs, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense are very comparable in overall discrimination (AUCs, 0.83-0.86). Given a 0.5% prevalence target and a 0.5% prediction threshold, DCGs, GRAM, and Prior-expense captured $963,000 (approximately 3%) more "high-cost" sample dollars than other models. DCGs captured the most "high-cost" dollars among enrollees with asthma, diabetes, and depression; predictive performance among demographic groups (Medicaid members, members over 64, and children under 13) varied across models. Risk models can efficiently identify enrollees who are likely to generate future high costs and who could benefit from case management. The dollar value of improved prediction performance of the most accurate risk models should be meaningful to decision-makers and encourage their broader use for identifying high costs.

Prevalence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk factors among the general population and osteoarthritis patients.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Hyuck; Yun, Jae Moon; Chang, Chong Bum; Piao, Heng; Yu, Su Jong; Shin, Dong Wook

2016-12-28

To assess the prevalence of possible risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and their age-group specific trend among the general population and osteoarthritis patients. We utilized data from the National Health Insurance Service that included claims data and results of the national health check-up program. Comorbid conditions (peptic ulcer, diabetes, liver disease, chronic renal failure, and gastroesophageal reflux disease), concomitant drugs (aspirin, clopidogrel, cilostazol, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, steroid, anticoagulants, and SSRI), personal habits (smoking, and alcohol consumption) were considered as possible UGIB risk factors. We randomly imputed the prevalence of infection in the data considering the age-specific prevalence of Helicobacter pylori ( H. pylori ) infection in Korea. The prevalence of various UGIB risk factors and the age-group specific trend of the prevalence were identified. Prevalence was compared between osteoarthritis patients and others. A total of 801926 subjects (93855 osteoarthritis patients) aged 20 and above were included. The prevalence of individual and concurrent multiple risk factors became higher as the age increased. The prevalence of each comorbid condition and concomitant drug were higher in osteoarthritis patients. Thirty-five point zero two percent of the overall population and 68.50% of osteoarthritis patients had at least one or more risk factors of UGIB. The prevalence of individual and concurrent multiple risk factors in younger age groups were also substantial. Furthermore, when personal habits (smoking, and alcohol consumption) and H. pylori infection were included, the prevalence of concurrent multiple risk factors increased greatly even in younger age groups. Prevalence of UGIB risk factors was high in elderly population, but was also considerable in younger population. Patient with osteoarthritis was at higher UGIB risk than those without osteoarthritis. Physicians should consider

Are your students ready for anatomy and physiology? Developing tools to identify students at risk for failure.

PubMed

Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

2015-06-01

High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online pilot survey was administered to 200 biology students. The survey results revealed several predictive factors related to academic preparation and prompted a comprehensive analysis of college records of >2,000 biology students over a 5-yr period. Using these historical data, a model that was 91% successful in predicting student success in these courses was developed. The results of the present study support the use of surveys and similar models to identify at-risk students and to provide guidance in the development of evidence-based advising programs and pedagogies. This comprehensive approach may be a tangible step in improving student success for students from a wide variety of backgrounds in anatomy and physiology courses. Copyright © 2015 The American Physiological Society.

Countries at Risk: Heightened Human Security Risk to States With Transboundary Water Resources and Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veilleux, J. C.; Sullivan, G. S.; Paola, C.; Starget, A.; Watson, J. E.; Hwang, Y. J.; Picucci, J. A.; Choi, C. S.

2014-12-01

The Countries at Risk project is a global assessment of countries with transboundary water resources that are at risk for conflict because of high human security instability. Building upon Basins at Risk (BAR) research, our team used updated Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database georeferenced social and environmental data, quantitative data from global indices, and qualitative data from news media sources. Our assessment considered a combination of analyzing 15 global indices related to water or human security to identify which countries scored as highest risk in each index. From this information, we were able to assess the highest risk countries' human security risk by using a new human security measurement tool, as well as comparing this analysis to the World Bank's Fragile States Index and the experimental Human Security Index. In addition, we identified which countries have the highest number of shared basins, the highest percentage of territory covered by a transboundary basin, and the highest dependency of withdrawal from transboundary waters from outside their country boundaries. By synthesizing these social and environmental data assessments, we identified five countries to analyze as case studies. These five countries are Afghanistan, China, Iraq, Moldova, and Sudan. We created a series of 30 maps to spatial analyze the relationship between the transboundary basins and social and environmental parameters to include population, institutional capacity, and physical geography by country. Finally, we synthesized our spatial analysis, Human Security Key scores, and current events scored by using the BAR scale to determine what aspects and which basins are most at risk with each country in our case studies and how this concerns future global water resources.

Sarcoidosis Increases Risk of Hospitalized Infection. A Population-based Study, 1976-2013.

PubMed

Ungprasert, Patompong; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-05-01

Patients with sarcoidosis may have an increased risk of infection similar to other immune-mediated disorders. However, the data are still limited. To investigate the risk of hospitalized infection among patients with sarcoidosis, using a population-based cohort. Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project record-linkage system, a cohort of incident cases of sarcoidosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1976 to 2013 was identified. Diagnosis was confirmed by individual medical record review. For each patient with sarcoidosis, a sex- and age-matched comparator without sarcoidosis was randomly selected from the same population. Medical records of cases and comparators were individually reviewed for hospitalized infection that occurred after the index date. The cumulative incidence of hospitalized infection overall and by type of infection, adjusted for the competing risk of death, was estimated. Cox models were used to compare the rate of first hospitalized infection between cases and comparators and to evaluate the association between use of immunosuppressive agents and hospitalized infection among cases. Three hundred and forty-five cases and 345 comparators were identified. Patients with sarcoidosis had a higher risk of a hospitalized infection with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-2.84), adjusted for age, sex, and calendar year of index date. Use of oral glucocorticoids was a significant predictor of hospitalized infection with an HR of 3.03 (95% CI, 1.33-6.90) for oral glucocorticoids not exceeding 10 mg/day and an HR of 4.48 (95% CI, 1.54-13.03) for oral glucocorticoids greater than 10 mg/day. Patients with sarcoidosis are at increased risk of hospitalized infection. Glucocorticoid therapy is strongly associated with this increased risk.

Identifying Darwinian selection acting on different human APOL1 variants among diverse African populations.

PubMed

Ko, Wen-Ya; Rajan, Prianka; Gomez, Felicia; Scheinfeldt, Laura; An, Ping; Winkler, Cheryl A; Froment, Alain; Nyambo, Thomas B; Omar, Sabah A; Wambebe, Charles; Ranciaro, Alessia; Hirbo, Jibril B; Tishkoff, Sarah A

2013-07-11

Disease susceptibility can arise as a consequence of adaptation to infectious disease. Recent findings have suggested that higher rates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in individuals with recent African ancestry might be attributed to two risk alleles (G1 and G2) at the serum-resistance-associated (SRA)-interacting-domain-encoding region of APOL1. These two alleles appear to have arisen adaptively, possibly as a result of their protective effects against human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), or African sleeping sickness. In order to explore the distribution of potential functional variation at APOL1, we studied nucleotide variation in 187 individuals across ten geographically and genetically diverse African ethnic groups with exposure to two Trypanosoma brucei subspecies that cause HAT. We observed unusually high levels of nonsynonymous polymorphism in the regions encoding the functional domains that are required for lysing parasites. Whereas allele frequencies of G2 were similar across all populations (3%-8%), the G1 allele was only common in the Yoruba (39%). Additionally, we identified a haplotype (termed G3) that contains a nonsynonymous change at the membrane-addressing-domain-encoding region of APOL1 and is present in all populations except for the Yoruba. Analyses of long-range patterns of linkage disequilibrium indicate evidence of recent selection acting on the G3 haplotype in Fulani from Cameroon. Our results indicate that the G1 and G2 variants in APOL1 are geographically restricted and that there might be other functional variants that could play a role in HAT resistance and CKD risk in African populations. Copyright © 2013 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale. Methods HFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk. Results Results showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China. Conclusions The autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD

Characteristics of Interventions Targeting Multiple Lifestyle Risk Behaviours in Adult Populations: A Systematic Scoping Review

PubMed Central

King, Kristel; Meader, Nick; Wright, Kath; Graham, Hilary; Power, Christine; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Sowden, Amanda J.

2015-01-01

Background Modifiable lifestyle risk behaviours such as smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and alcohol misuse are the leading causes of major, non-communicable diseases worldwide. It is increasingly being recognised that interventions which target more than one risk behaviour may be an effective and efficient way of improving people’s lifestyles. To date, there has been no attempt to summarise the global evidence base for interventions targeting multiple risk behaviours. Objective To identify and map the characteristics of studies evaluating multiple risk behaviour change interventions targeted at adult populations in any country. Methods Seven bibliographic databases were searched between January, 1990, and January/ May, 2013. Authors of protocols, conference abstracts, and other relevant articles were contacted. Study characteristics were extracted and inputted into Eppi-Reviewer 4. Results In total, 220 studies were included in the scoping review. Most were randomised controlled trials (62%) conducted in the United States (49%), and targeted diet and physical activity (56%) in people from general populations (14%) or subgroups of general populations (45%). Very few studies had been conducted in the Middle East (2%), Africa (0.5%), or South America (0.5%). There was also a scarcity of studies conducted among young adults (1%), or racial and minority ethnic populations (4%) worldwide. Conclusions Research is required to investigate the interrelationships of lifestyle risk behaviours in varying cultural contexts around the world. Cross-cultural development and evaluation of multiple risk behaviour change interventions is also needed, particularly in populations of young adults and racial and minority ethnic populations. PMID:25617783

Population exposed to landslide risk in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; Munafò, Michele; Baiocco, Fabio; Marinosci, Ines; Chiocchini, Raffaella; Mugnoli, Stefano

2013-04-01

Italy is one of the European countries most affected by landslides counting over 486,000 mass movements with a total area of 20,700 square kilometres equal to 6.9% of the national territory. Moreover Italy is a densely urbanized country: 8101 municipalities, about 200 inhabitants per sq. km, 16,000 km of rail network and 180,000 km of road network. Landslides caused more than 5000 fatalities in the last century and considerable damage to urban areas, transport infrastructure and facilities, environmental and cultural heritage. The aim of this work is to estimate the population exposed to landslide risk in Italy. The input data are: the Italian Landslide Inventory, the Italian Population Census data and the high-resolution Artificial surfaces-Imperviousness Layer (Geoland2). The Italian Landslide Inventory (Progetto IFFI) realised by ISPRA (Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research) and the Regions and Self-governing Provinces, identifies landslides occurred in the national territory in accordance with standardized methods and using a detailed landslide mapping (1:10,000 scale). The 14th Population Census, made by ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics) in 2001, contains data of resident population for the 382,534 census tracts in which Italy is divided. The pan-European high-resolution (HR) Artificial surfaces-Imperviousness Layer, realized using remote sensing data within the GMES initiative (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) by European Commission and European Space Agency, contains the degree of imperviousness (between 0 and 100%). GIS overlay of this information layer (20 x 20 m grid) with census tracts has allowed the spatialization of population within urban settlements of each census tract. This methodology has been particularly useful in the case of rural census tracts characterized by large surface area and low population density. The methodology could be also applied to estimate the population exposed to

Risk Factors for Chronic Cough Among 14,669 Individuals From the General Population.

PubMed

Çolak, Yunus; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Laursen, Lars C; Afzal, Shoaib; Lange, Peter; Dahl, Morten

2017-09-01

Risk factors for chronic cough in the general population have not been described systematically. We identified and ranked chronic cough risk factors at the individual and community level using data from 14,669 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study. Severity of chronic cough was assessed using the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ). We ranked chronic cough risk factors based on magnitude of age-adjusted ORs at the individual level and of the population attributable risks (PARs) at the community level. Prevalence of chronic cough in the general population was 4% overall and 3% in never smokers, 4% in former smokers, and 8% in current smokers. Median score of the LCQ was 5.8 (25th-75th percentile, 5.0-6.3) for physical domain, 5.6 (25th-75th percentile, 4.6-6.3) for psychologic domain, 6.3 (25th-75th percentile, 5.5-6.8) for social domain, and 17.3 (25th- 75th percentile, 15.4-18.9) in total. At the level of the individual, age-adjusted ORs for the three top-ranked risk factors were 5.0 (95% CI, 1.4-18) for bronchiectasis, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.7-3.9) for asthma and 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5-3.4) for gastroesophageal reflux disease in never smokers, 7.1 (95% CI, 2.6-20) for bronchiectasis, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.2-4.4) for asthma and 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.2) for occupational exposure to dust/fumes in former smokers, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.3-2.9) for airflow limitation in current smokers. At the level of the community, the three top-ranked risk factors were female sex (PAR, 19%), asthma (PAR, 10%), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (PAR, 8%) in never smokers; abdominal obesity (PAR, 20%), low income (PAR, 20%), and asthma (PAR, 13%) in former smokers; and airflow limitation (PAR, 23%) in current smokers. Risk factors for chronic cough differ at the level of the individual and community, and by smoking status. Strategies to prevent and treat modifiable chronic cough risk factors should be tailored accordingly. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians

Assessment of vitamin D and its association with cardiovascular disease risk factors in an adult migrant population: an audit of patient records at a Community Health Centre in Kensington, Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed

Ruwanpathirana, Thilanga; Reid, Christopher M; Owen, Alice J; Fong, David P S; Gowda, Usha; Renzaho, Andre M N

2014-11-11

Vitamin D deficiency is a global public health problem associated with increased risk of cardio-metabolic diseases and osteoarthritis. Migrants with dark skin settled in temperate climates are at greater risk of both vitamin D deficiency and cardiovascular diseases. This study aims to identify the risk of vitamin D deficiency and associations with cardiovascular disease in a migrant population in Australia. An audit was carried out at a Community Health Service in Kensington, Melbourne which, services a large migrant population. Data from the clinical records of all adults who visited the medical centre at least once during the period from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012 was extracted. The future (10 year) coronary heart disease risk was estimated using Framingham Risk Score. The centre has given higher priority to vitamin D testing in migrants, those middle-aged, females and those with diabetes and osteoarthritis. Migrants from countries located in lower latitude regions (Latitude N230 to S230) were 1.48 (95% C.I. 1.32-1.65) times more likely to develop vitamin D deficiency post migration and 0.44 (95% C.I. 0.31-0.62) times less likely to have a >15% 10-year risk of coronary heart disease when compared to their Australian-born counterparts. Adherence to a high risk strategy for vitamin D testing was observed in the centre. Pre-migration latitude is an important factor for vitamin D deficiency (lower the latitude higher the risk) and in predicting future risk of cardiovascular disease in migrants. These findings suggest that a targeted approach for vitamin D testing, including zone of origin might better identify individuals at higher risk of both vitamin D deficiency and cardiovascular disease.

Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

PubMed Central

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

2015-01-01

Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

PubMed

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

2015-10-01

Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk of erectile dysfunction in transfusion-naive thalassemia men: a nationwide population-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Guang; Lin, Te-Yu; Lin, Cheng-Li; Dai, Ming-Shen; Ho, Ching-Liang; Kao, Chia-Hung

2015-04-01

Based on the mechanism of pathophysiology, thalassemia major or transfusion-dependent thalassemia patients may have an increased risk of developing organic erectile dysfunction resulting from hypogonadism. However, there have been few studies investigating the association between erectile dysfunction and transfusion-naive thalassemia populations. We constructed a population-based cohort study to elucidate the association between transfusion-naive thalassemia populations and organic erectile dysfunction. This nationwide population-based cohort study involved analyzing data from 1998 to 2010 obtained from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database, with a follow-up period extending to the end of 2011. We identified men with transfusion-naive thalassemia and selected a comparison cohort that was frequency-matched with these according to age, and year of diagnosis thalassemia at a ratio of 1 thalassemia man to 4 control men. We analyzed the risks for transfusion-naive thalassemia men and organic erectile dysfunction by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In this study, 588 transfusion-naive thalassemia men and 2337 controls were included. Total 12 patients were identified within the thalassaemia group and 10 within the control group. The overall risks for developing organic erectile dysfunction were 4.56-fold in patients with transfusion-naive thalassemia men compared with the comparison cohort after we adjusted for age and comorbidities. Our long-term cohort study results showed that in transfusion-naive thalassemia men, there was a higher risk for the development of organic erectile dysfunction, particularly in those patients with comorbidities.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies genetic risk factors for stroke in African-Americans

PubMed Central

Carty, Cara L.; Keene, Keith L.; Cheng, Yu-Ching; Meschia, James F.; Chen, Wei-Min; Nalls, Mike; Bis, Joshua C.; Kittner, Steven J.; Rich, Stephen S.; Tajuddin, Salman; Zonderman, Alan B.; Evans, Michele K.; Langefeld, Carl D.; Gottesman, Rebecca; Mosley, Thomas H.; Shahar, Eyal; Woo, Daniel; Yaffe, Kristine; Liu, YongMei; Sale, Michèle M.; Dichgans, Martin; Malik, Rainer; Longstreth, WT; Mitchell, Braxton D.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Kooperberg, Charles; Reiner, Alexander; Worrall, Bradford B.; Fornage, Myriam

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose The majority of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of stroke have focused on European-ancestry populations; however, none has been conducted in African-Americans despite the disproportionately high burden of stroke in this population. The Consortium of Minority Population genome-wide Association Studies of Stroke (COMPASS) was established to identify stroke susceptibility loci in minority populations. Methods Using METAL, we conducted meta-analyses of GWAS in 14,746 African-Americans (1,365 ischemic and 1,592 total stroke cases) from COMPASS, and tested SNPs with P<10−6 for validation in METASTROKE, a consortium of ischemic stroke genetic studies in European-ancestry populations. We also evaluated stroke loci previously identified in European-ancestry populations. Results The 15q21.3 locus linked with lipid levels and hypertension was associated with total stroke (rs4471613, P=3.9×10−8) in African-Americans. Nominal associations (P<10−6) for total or ischemic stroke were observed for 18 variants in or near genes implicated in cell cycle/ mRNA pre-splicing (PTPRG, CDC5L), platelet function (HPS4), blood-brain barrier permeability (CLDN17), immune response (ELTD1, WDFY4, IL1F10-IL1RN), and histone modification (HDAC9). Two of these loci achieved nominal significance in METASTROKE: 5q35.2 (P=0.03), and 1p31.1 (P=0.018). Four of 7 previously reported ischemic stroke loci (PITX2, HDAC9, CDKN2A/CDKN2B and ZFHX3) were nominally associated (P<0.05) with stroke in COMPASS. Conclusions We identified a novel SNP associated with total stroke in African-Americans and found that ischemic stroke loci identified in European-ancestry populations may also be relevant for African-Americans. Our findings support investigation of diverse populations to identify and characterize genetic risk factors, and the importance of shared genetic risk across populations. PMID:26089329

Decision Tree Identified Risk Groups with High Suicidal Ideation in South Korea: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Kyung; Kim, Ji Young; Kim, Jong Hyen; Hyoung, Hee Kyoung

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify risk groups with high suicidal ideation among South Korean adults. A descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted using secondary data from the 2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). A total of 5,963 adults aged 19 years and older who participated in the 2011 KNHANES served as participants. The prevalence of suicidal ideation and its related factors, including physical, psychological, health behavioral, and sociodemographic characteristics, were examined. Descriptive statistics and a decision tree were used for data analysis. Nine groups with high suicidal ideation were identified. The coexistence of depression and high levels of stress increased the prevalence of suicidal ideation. The highest risk group was widowed or divorced adults with depression and high levels of stress, and 82.5% of these participants had suicidal ideation (the prevalence rate of this group was 5.7 times higher than the mean suicidal ideation prevalence rate in this study). Public health nurses and community mental health professionals should recognize risk groups with high suicidal ideation, and target these groups when implementing preventive interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatial distribution of mumps in South Korea, 2001-2015: identifying clusters and population risk factors.

PubMed

Choe, Y-J; Min, K; Cho, S-I

2017-07-01

In South Korea, the resurgence of mumps was noted primarily among school-aged children and adolescents since 2000. We analyzed spatial patterns in mumps incidence to give an indication to the geographical risk. We used National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data from 2001 to 2015, classifying into three periods according to the level of endemicity. A geographic-weighted regression analysis was performed to find demographic predictors of mumps incidence according to district level. We assessed the association between the total population size, population density, percentage of children (age 0-19 years), timely vaccination rate of measles-mumps-rubella vaccines and the higher incidence rate of mumps. During low endemic periods, there were sporadic regional distributions of outbreak in the central and northern part of the country. During intermediate endemic periods, the increase of incidence was noted across the country. During high endemic period, a nationwide high incidence of mumps was noted especially concentrated in southwestern regions. A clear pattern for the mumps cluster shown through global spatial autocorrelation analysis from 2004 to 2015. The 'non-timely vaccination coverage' (P = 0·002), and 'proportion of children population' (P < 0·001) were the predictors for high mumps incidence in district levels. Our study indicates that the rate of mumps incidence according to geographic regions vary by population proportion and neighboring regions, and timeliness of vaccination, suggesting the importance of community-level surveillance and improving of timely vaccination.

CTNNB1 (beta-catenin) mutation identifies low grade, early stage endometrial cancer patients at increased risk of recurrence.

PubMed

Kurnit, Katherine C; Kim, Grace N; Fellman, Bryan M; Urbauer, Diana L; Mills, Gordon B; Zhang, Wei; Broaddus, Russell R

2017-07-01

Although the majority of low grade, early stage endometrial cancer patients will have good survival outcomes with surgery alone, those patients who do recur tend to do poorly. Optimal identification of the subset of patients who are at high risk of recurrence and would benefit from adjuvant treatment has been difficult. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of somatic tumor mutation on survival outcomes in this patient population. For this study, low grade was defined as endometrioid FIGO grades 1 or 2, while early stage was defined as endometrioid stages I or II (disease confined to the uterus). Next-generation sequencing was performed using panels comprised of 46-200 genes. Recurrence-free and overall survival was compared across gene mutational status in both univariate and multivariate analyses. In all, 342 patients were identified, 245 of which had endometrioid histology. For grades 1-2, stages I-II endometrioid endometrial cancer patients, age (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.10), CTNNB1 mutation (HR 5.97, 95% CI 2.69-13.21), and TP53 mutation (HR 4.07, 95% CI 1.57-10.54) were associated with worse recurrence-free survival on multivariate analysis. When considering endometrioid tumors of all grades and stages, CTNNB1 mutant tumors were associated with significantly higher rates of grades 1-2 disease, lower rates of deep myometrial invasion, and lower rates of lymphatic/vascular space invasion. When both TP53 and CTNNB1 mutations were considered, presence of either TP53 mutation or CTNNB1 mutation remained a statistically significant predictor of recurrence-free survival on multivariate analysis and was associated with a more precise confidence interval (HR 4.69, 95% CI 2.38-9.24). Thus, mutational analysis of a 2 gene panel of CTNNB1 and TP53 can help to identify a subset of low grade, early stage endometrial cancer patients who are at high risk of recurrence.

Symptom Awareness and Cancer Prevention: Exploratory Findings from an At-Risk Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eadie, Douglas; MacAskill, Susan

2008-01-01

Purpose: Secondary prevention programmes have traditionally employed mass screening approaches to assess for asymptomatic signs of cancer. It has been suggested that early detection strategies involving public education and self-referral may prove more cost-effective with low risk populations for cancers with symptomatic presentation. This study,…

Identifying individual- and population-level characteristics that influence rates of risky alcohol consumption in regional communities.

PubMed

Breen, Courtney; Shakeshaft, Anthony; Sanson-Fisher, Rob; D'Este, Catherine; Mattick, Richard P; Gilmour, Stuart

2014-02-01

To examine the extent to which individual- and community- level characteristics account for differences in risky alcohol consumption. A cross-sectional postal survey of 2,977 randomly selected individuals from 20 regional communities in NSW, Australia. Individuals drinking at harmful levels on the AUDIT and for risk of harm in the short term and long-term were identified. Multi-level modelling of the correlates of risky alcohol consumption at the individual and community level was conducted. There were differences between communities in alcohol consumption patterns. Being male, unmarried and reporting worse health were significant individual-level correlates for drinking at levels for risk of harm in the long term. The number of GPs (+) and police (-) were significant community characteristics. Being younger (≤25), unmarried, Australian born and with a larger income was associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term and harmful drinking on the AUDIT. The number of hotels and clubs was positively associated with drinking at levels for risk of harm in the short term. Rates of risky drinking vary significantly between communities and both individual and community characteristics are significantly associated with risky alcohol consumption. A combination of individual- and population-level interventions, tailored to the risk profile of individual communities, is most likely to be optimally effective. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Is the association between flow-mediated dilation and cardiovascular risk limited to low-risk populations?

PubMed

Witte, Daniel R; Westerink, Jan; de Koning, Eelco J; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2005-06-21

The aim of this research was to study whether the relation between endothelial function measured by flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery and cardiovascular risk factors is affected by the baseline cardiovascular risk. Flow-mediated dilation of the brachial artery is widely used as a measure of endothelial function. Relations between FMD and most cardiovascular risk factors have been described. We performed a meta-regression analysis of 211 selected articles (399 populations) reporting on FMD and cardiovascular risk factors. Mean values of FMD; age; proportion of men; proportion of smokers; blood pressure; lipids; glucose; and the presence of diabetes mellitus, of hyperlipidemia, and of hypertension were retrieved from the articles. The 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) for each population was estimated based on the Framingham risk score. The relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was assessed within each risk category by linear regression analysis, adjusting for age and gender, and weighted for the study size. A relation between FMD and cardiovascular risk factors was most clear in the category with lowest baseline risk (below 2.8% per decade). In populations with low baseline risk, for each % increase in Framingham risk, FMD decreased by 1.42% (95% confidence interval: 0.65 to 2.19). In medium- and high-risk populations, FMD was not related to risk (-0.02% [-0.27 to 0.22] and 0.06% [-0.02 to 0.13], respectively). These findings were independent of differences in brachial lumen diameter and technical aspects of the FMD measurement. Only in populations at low risk, endothelial function measured by FMD is related to the principal cardiovascular risk factors, and to the estimated 10-year risk of CHD.

Surveillance of Populations at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma Development in Rural Communities of Thailand Using the Korat-CCA Verbal Screening Test.

PubMed

Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Loyd, Ryan A; Panpimanmas, Sukij; Matrakool, Likit; Tongtawee, Taweesak; Kompor, Porntip; Norkaew, Jun; Chavengkun, Wasugree; Wakkhuwattapong, Parichart; Kujapun, Jirawoot; Ponphimai, Sukanya; Phatisena, Tanida; Eaksunti, Thawatchai; Polsripradist, Poowadol; Joosiri, Apinya; Sukkasam, Inchat; Padchasuwan, Natnapa; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious problem in Thailand, particularly in the northeastern region. Active surveillance in rural communities with an appropriat low-cost screening tool is required to facilitate early detection. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the population at risk of CCA in Bua Yai district, Nakhon Ratchasima province, Northeastern Thailand using the Korat-CCA verbal screening test (KCVST) during June to October 2015. Reliability of KCVST demonstrated a Cronbach alpha coefficient=0.75 Stepwise-multiple regression showed that alcohol consumption was important for CCA screened, followed by agriculture and pesticide use, under-cooked cyprinoid fish consumption, praziquantel use, naïve northeastern people, opisthorchiasis, family relatives with CCA, and cholangitis or cholecystitis or gallstones, respectively. Population at risk for CCA was classified to low risk (63.4%), moderate risk (33.7%), and high risk (1.32%) for CCA. When CCA was screened using ultrasonography, 4 of 32 high risk participants had an abnormal biliary tract with dilated bile ducts. This study indicates that KCVST is a potential useful too which decrease the cost of large scale CCA screening.

Outlining a Population “at Risk” of Parkinson's Disease: Evidence from a Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Schirinzi, Tommaso; Martella, Giuseppina; D'Elia, Alessio; Di Lazzaro, Giulia; Imbriani, Paola; Madeo, Graziella; Monaco, Leonardo; Maltese, Marta

2016-01-01

The multifactorial pathogenesis of Parkinson's Disease (PD) requires a careful identification of populations “at risk” of developing the disease. In this case-control study we analyzed a large Italian population, in an attempt to outline general criteria to define a population “at risk” of PD. We enrolled 300 PD patients and 300 controls, gender and age matched, from the same urban geographical area. All subjects were interviewed on demographics, family history of PD, occupational and environmental toxicants exposure, smoking status, and alcohol consumption. A sample of 65 patients and 65 controls also underwent serum dosing of iron, copper, mercury, and manganese by means of Inductively Coupled-Plasma-Mass-Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Positive family history, toxicants exposure, non-current-smoker, and alcohol nonconsumer status occurred as significant risk factors in our population. The number of concurring risk factors overlapping in the same subject impressively increased the overall risk. No significant differences were measured in the metal serum levels. Our findings indicate that combination of three to four concurrent PD-risk factors defines a condition “at risk” of PD. A simple stratification, based on these questionnaires, might be of help in identifying subjects suitable for neuroprotective strategies. PMID:27651975

Predation risk modifies behaviour by shaping the response of identified brain neurons.

PubMed

Magani, Fiorella; Luppi, Tomas; Nuñez, Jesus; Tomsic, Daniel

2016-04-15

Interpopulation comparisons in species that show behavioural variations associated with particular ecological disparities offer good opportunities for assessing how environmental factors may foster specific functional adaptations in the brain. Yet, studies on the neural substrate that can account for interpopulation behavioural adaptations are scarce. Predation is one of the strongest driving forces for behavioural evolvability and, consequently, for shaping structural and functional brain adaptations. We analysed the escape response of crabs ITALIC! Neohelice granulatafrom two isolated populations exposed to different risks of avian predation. Individuals from the high-risk area proved to be more reactive to visual danger stimuli (VDS) than those from an area where predators are rare. Control experiments indicate that the response difference was specific for impending visual threats. Subsequently, we analysed the response to VDS of a group of giant brain neurons that are thought to play a main role in the visually guided escape response of the crab. Neurons from animals of the population with the stronger escape response were more responsive to VDS than neurons from animals of the less reactive population. Our results suggest a robust linkage between the pressure imposed by the predation risk, the response of identified neurons and the behavioural outcome. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

PubMed

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p < 0.0001 for differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion

Identifying signatures of positive selection in pigmentation genes in two South Asian populations.

PubMed

Jonnalagadda, Manjari; Bharti, Neeraj; Patil, Yatish; Ozarkar, Shantanu; K, Sunitha Manjari; Joshi, Rajendra; Norton, Heather

2017-09-10

Skin pigmentation is a polygenic trait showing wide phenotypic variations among global populations. While numerous pigmentation genes have been identified to be under positive selection among European and East populations, genes contributing to phenotypic variation in skin pigmentation within and among South Asian populations are still poorly understood. The present study uses data from the Phase 3 of the 1000 genomes project focusing on two South Asian populations-GIH (Gujarati Indian from Houston, Texas) and ITU (Indian Telugu from UK), so as to decode the genetic architecture involved in adaptation to ultraviolet radiation in South Asian populations. Statistical tests included were (1) tests to identify deviations of the Site Frequency Spectrum (SFS) from neutral expectations (Tajima's D, Fay and Wu's H and Fu and Li's D* and F*), (2) tests focused on the identification of high-frequency haplotypes with extended linkage disequilibrium (iHS and Rsb), and (3) tests based on genetic differentiation between populations (LSBL). Twenty-two pigmentation genes fall in the top 1% for at least one statistic in the GIH population, 5 of which (LYST, OCA2, SLC24A5, SLC45A2, and TYR) have been previously associated with normal variation in skin, hair, or eye color. In comparison, 17 genes fall in the top 1% for at least one statistic in the ITU population. Twelve loci which are identified as outliers in the ITU scan were also identified in the GIH population. These results suggest that selection may have affected these loci broadly across the region. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments.

PubMed

Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

2010-10-23

Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002-09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria-including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion needed for comprehensive control in 2010; this includes

Equity and adequacy of international donor assistance for global malaria control: an analysis of populations at risk and external funding commitments

PubMed Central

Snow, Robert W; Okiro, Emelda A; Gething, Peter W; Atun, Rifat; Hay, Simon I

2010-01-01

Summary Background Financing for malaria control has increased as part of international commitments to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We aimed to identify the unmet financial needs that would be biologically and economically equitable and would increase the chances of reaching worldwide malaria-control ambitions. Methods Populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax transmission were calculated for 2007 and 2009 for 93 malaria-endemic countries to measure biological need. National per-person gross domestic product (GDP) was used to define economic need. An analysis of external donor assistance for malaria control was done for the period 2002–09 to compute overall and annualised per-person at-risk-funding commitments. Annualised malaria donor assistance was compared with independent predictions of funding needed to reach international targets of 80% coverage of best practices in case-management and effective disease prevention. Countries were ranked in relation to biological, economic, and unmet needs to examine equity and adequacy of support by 2010. Findings International financing for malaria control has increased by 166% (from $0·73 billion to $1·94 billion) since 2007 and is broadly consistent with biological needs. African countries have become major recipients of external assistance; however, countries where P vivax continues to pose threats to control ambitions are not as well funded. 21 countries have reached adequate assistance to provide a comprehensive suite of interventions by 2009, including 12 countries in Africa. However, this assistance was inadequate for 50 countries representing 61% of the worldwide population at risk of malaria—including ten countries in Africa and five in Asia that coincidentally are some of the poorest countries. Approval of donor funding for malaria control does not correlate with GDP. Interpretation Funding for malaria control worldwide is 60% lower than the US$4·9 billion

Brief Report: Gestures in Children at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Rupa Gupta; Watson, Linda R.

2015-01-01

Retrospective video analyses indicate that disruptions in gesture use occur as early as 9-12 months of age in infants later diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We report a prospective study of gesture use in 42 children identified as at-risk for ASD using a general population screening. At age 13-15 months, gestures were more disrupted…

Prenatal screening for psychosocial risks in a high risk-population in Peru using the KINDEX interview.

PubMed

Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

2016-01-22

Prenatal stress and other prenatal risk factors (e.g. intimate partner violence) have a negative impact on mother's health, fetal development as well as enduring adverse effects on the neuro-cognitive, behavioral and physical health of the child. Mothers of low socio-economic status and especially those living in crime-ridden areas are even more exposed to a host of risk factors. Societies of extreme violence, poverty and inequalities, often present difficulties to provide adequate mental health care to the most needed populations. The KINDEX, a brief standardized instrument that assesses 11 different risk factors was used by midwives to identify pregnant women at-risk, in a suburban area with one of the highest levels of domestic violence in Lima. The instrument was designed to be used by medical staff to identify high-risk child-bearing women and, based on the results, to refer them to the adequate psychological or social support providers. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychosocial screening using the KINDEX in a Latin American Country for the first time, and to explore the relationship of the KINDEX with thee major risk areas, maternal psychopathology, perceived stress and traumatic experiences. The study was conducted in cooperation with the gynecological department of a general hospital in a suburban area of Lima. Nine midwives conducted interviews using the KINDEX of ninety-five pregnant women attending the gynecological unit of the hospital. From these, forty pregnant women were re-interviewed by a clinical psychologist using established instruments in order to assess the feasibility of the prenatal assessment in public health settings and the relationship of the KINDEX with maternal perceived stress, psychopathology symptoms and trauma load during pregnancy. We found high rates of risk factors in the examined pregnant women comparable with those found in the general population. Significant correlations were found between the KINDEX

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Communicating Pacific Rim Risk: A GIS Analysis of Hazard, Vulnerability, Population, and Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yurkovich, E. S.; Howell, D. G.

2002-12-01

Exploding population and unprecedented urban development within the last century helped fuel an increase in the severity of natural disasters. Not only has the world become more populated, but people, information and commodities now travel greater distances to service larger concentrations of people. While many of the earth's natural hazards remain relatively constant, understanding the risk to increasingly interconnected and large populations requires an expanded analysis. To improve mitigation planning we propose a model that is accessible to planners and implemented with public domain data and industry standard GIS software. The model comprises 1) the potential impact of five significant natural hazards: earthquake, flood, tropical storm, tsunami and volcanic eruption assessed by a comparative index of risk, 2) population density, 3) infrastructure distribution represented by a proxy, 4) the vulnerability of the elements at risk (population density and infrastructure distribution) and 5) the connections and dependencies of our increasingly 'globalized' world, portrayed by a relative linkage index. We depict this model with the equation, Risk = f(H, E, V, I) Where H is an index normalizing the impact of five major categories of natural hazards; E is one element at risk, population or infrastructure; V is a measure of the vulnerability for of the elements at risk; and I pertains to a measure of interconnectivity of the elements at risk as a result of economic and social globalization. We propose that future risk analysis include the variable I to better define and quantify risk. Each assessment reflects different repercussions from natural disasters: losses of life or economic activity. Because population and infrastructure are distributed heterogeneously across the Pacific region, two contrasting representations of risk emerge from this study.

Awareness of Risk Factors for Breast, Lung and Cervical Cancer in a UK Student Population.

PubMed

Sherman, Susan M; Lane, Emily L

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to identify levels of risk awareness for breast, lung and cervical cancer, in a UK student population. A sample of male (N=62) and female (N=58) university students, mean age 21.62 years completed a questionnaire identifying which risk factors they knew for each cancer. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in risk awareness across gender and cancer types. Risk factor awareness was highest for lung cancer (0.78), mid-range for breast cancer (0.61) and lowest for cervical cancer (0.47). Women had greater risk factor awareness (0.67) than males (0.57) across all three cancers. There is also significant belief in mythic risk factors such as stress (from 14 to 40% across the three cancers). Previous research has demonstrated that risk factor awareness increases with educational status, yet even in a university student population, in which the majority of females would have been offered the HPV vaccination, risk factor awareness for cancers is variable. More health education is needed particularly around the risk factors for cervical cancer.

Using the SAPAS to identify risk for personality disorders among psychiatric outpatients in India: A feasibility study.

PubMed

Innocent, Simeon; Podder, Priyanka; Ram, Jai Ranjan; Barnicot, Kirsten; Sen, Piyal

2018-02-01

Personality disorders (PDs) are common among psychiatric outpatients and are associated with increased morbidity and worse treatment outcomes. Epidemiological research conducted among this population in Asian countries is limited, reflecting a significant gap in the current literature. One barrier to this research is the lack of appropriate screening tools. The current research assessed the feasibility of using the SAPAS (Standardized Assessment of Personality-Abbreviated Scale) screening tool to identify individuals at high risk of PD in an Indian psychiatric outpatient population and provides an initial estimate of PD prevalence by using a validated diagnostic interview, the ICD-10 International Personality Disorder Examination. The findings suggest that whilst use of the SAPAS was feasible, acceptable to patients and led to clinically useful findings, when using the recommended cut-off score of 4, the SAPAS largely overdiagnoses the risk for PD in psychiatric outpatients in India (positive predictive value = 26.3%). The estimated prevalence of personality disorder in the sample was 11.1%, based on administering the International Personality Disorder Examination diagnostic interview to high-risk patients scoring 4 and above on the SAPAS, which is higher than previous estimates for this population and still likely to be an underestimation. Future studies should translate the measure into Bengali and evaluate its sensitivity and specificity at different cut-off points in order to optimize its use in Indian populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Most at-risk populations: contextualising HIV prevention programmes targeting marginalised groups in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

PubMed

Ahmed, Naheed

2014-09-01

According to a 2009 UNAIDS report the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in Zanzibar, Tanzania, is low in the general population (0.6%), but high among vulnerable groups, specifically sex workers (10.8%), injecting drug users (15.1%), and men who have sex with men (12.3%). In response to this concentrated epidemic, the Government of Zanzibar, international and local non-profit organisations have focused their prevention activities on these marginal populations. Although these efforts are beneficial in terms of disseminating information about HIV/AIDS and referring clients to health clinics, they fail to address how the socio-economic status of these groups places them at a greater risk for contracting and dying from the virus. Furthermore, there is an absence of qualitative research on these populations which is needed to understand the challenges these groups face and to improve the effectiveness of interventions. Through interviews with employees of government agencies and non-profit organisations, medical professionals, vulnerable populations and HIV/AIDS patients, this paper used a political economy of health and syndemic framework to examine how local realities inform and challenge HIV/AIDS programmes in Zanzibar.

Population-based screening for breast and ovarian cancer risk due to BRCA1 and BRCA2

PubMed Central

Gabai-Kapara, Efrat; Lahad, Amnon; Kaufman, Bella; Friedman, Eitan; Segev, Shlomo; Renbaum, Paul; Beeri, Rachel; Gal, Moran; Grinshpun-Cohen, Julia; Djemal, Karen; Mandell, Jessica B.; Lee, Ming K.; Beller, Uziel; Catane, Raphael; King, Mary-Claire; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat

2014-01-01

In the Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) population of Israel, 11% of breast cancer and 40% of ovarian cancer are due to three inherited founder mutations in the cancer predisposition genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. For carriers of these mutations, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy significantly reduces morbidity and mortality. Population screening for these mutations among AJ women may be justifiable if accurate estimates of cancer risk for mutation carriers can be obtained. We therefore undertook to determine risks of breast and ovarian cancer for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers ascertained irrespective of personal or family history of cancer. Families harboring mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 were ascertained by identifying mutation carriers among healthy AJ males recruited from health screening centers and outpatient clinics. Female relatives of the carriers were then enrolled and genotyped. Among the female relatives with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, cumulative risk of developing either breast or ovarian cancer by age 60 and 80, respectively, were 0.60 (± 0.07) and 0.83 (± 0.07) for BRCA1 carriers and 0.33 (± 0.09) and 0.76 (± 0.13) for BRCA2 carriers. Risks were higher in recent vs. earlier birth cohorts (P = 0.006). High cancer risks in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers identified through healthy males provide an evidence base for initiating a general screening program in the AJ population. General screening would identify many carriers who are not evaluated by genetic testing based on family history criteria. Such a program could serve as a model to investigate implementation and outcomes of population screening for genetic predisposition to cancer in other populations. PMID:25192939